Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011 by UCF College of Business

Florida & Metro Forecast 2011-2014

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

Published April 2011

Message From Dean Thomas L. Keon For those keeping count, this is the 17th dean’s message I have written for the Florida Economic Forecast. It will also be my last.

About University of C e n t r a l F lo r i da ( U C F ) The University of Central F lorida is

a public, multi-campus, metropolitan r e s e a r c h u n i v e r s i t y, d e d i c a t e d t o

ser ving its surrounding communities with their diverse and expanding

populations, technological corridors,

and international partners. The mission

of the university is to offer high-quality undergraduate and graduate education, student development, and continuing education; to conduct research and creative activities; and to provide

services that enhance the intellectual,

cultural, environmental, and economic

development of the metropolitan region, address national and international

issues in key areas, establish UCF as a major presence, and contribute to the g l o b a l c o m m u n i t y.

About the College of B u s i n e s s A d m i n i s t r at i o n The College of Business Administration a d v a n c e s t h e u n i v e r s i t y ’s m i s s i o n

and goals in providing intellectual

leadership through research, teaching, and ser vice. The college is striving

to enhance graduate programs, while

maintaining the strong undergraduate

base. The college delivers research and

quality business education programs at the undergraduate, masters, doctoral,

and executive levels to citizens of the

state of F lorida and to select clientele n a t i o n a l l y a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y.

I have recently accepted a job as chancellor at Purdue University Calumet. That means I will be leaving Florida and relocating to Indiana. I have served as dean of the college since 1997, so this will be quite a transition. While I am excited to start my new career, I will miss many things about the “sunshine state.” Of course I will miss the warm weather and sandy beaches, but Florida has so much more to offer. Florida has culture, museums, history, and superb colleges and universities. As enrollment continues to grow at our state colleges and universities, so does the amount of research being conducted. I am particularly proud of all the advancements made at the University of Central Florida. It is definitely a university on the rise! The thing I will miss most about Florida is the people. With so many folks moving here from other regions, it is a diverse state and I have been fortunate to meet and work with faculty and students from all over the world. I have met so many close friends along the way. While Florida has definitely been hit hard by the recession, it is starting to bounce back slowly but surely. I am confident the state can recover. You can keep up-to-date on all the economic news by continuing to read these forecasts. I know I will. Good luck to all of you and thank you for reading my messages over the past few years. It has been my pleasure to address you.

n o e K . L s a m o h T Sincerely,

Thomas L. Keon Dean

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

F lo r i da F o r e c a s t 2011 - 2014 Apr il 2011 Report

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright ÂŠ 2010 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved.

Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Elaine Vogt, Administrative Assistant Cecilia Chirinos, Researcher Jessica Fears, Researcher Alexandra Betrone-Harpst, Researcher

This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitivenessâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.

TABLE OF CONTENTS Florida Highlights and Summary........................ 5-12 Florida Forecast Tables...................................... 13-18

Tab l e o f c o n te n t s

Florida Forecast Charts...................................... 19-26 Florida News Summaries....................................... 27 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach.......... 29-33 Gainesville......................................................... 34-38 Jacksonville....................................................... 39-43 Lakeland............................................................ 44-48 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach.......... 49-53 Naples-Marco Island......................................... 54-58 Ocala................................................................. 59-63 Orlando-Kissimmee.......................................... 64-68 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville......................... 69-73 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent.............................. 74-78 Tallahassee........................................................ 79-83 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater.................... 84-88 Industry Location Quotient..................................... 89

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H i g h l i g ht s o f the A p r i l 2 0 1 1 - 2 0 1 4 F l o r i d a F o r eca s t • Look out Alaska, Nevada, South Dakota and Wyoming. Florida is going to drink your milkshake, DRINK IT UP! • Corporate Tax cuts in Florida? Yes, if they are part of a Bright Futures program for all Floridians. • Payroll job growth year-over-year is expected to average 0.4% in 2011, 2.3% in 2012, 2.9% in 2013, and 3.0% in 2014. It will be the 4th quarter of 2015 before payrolls recover to their pre-recession levels. • The labor market is just beginning to participate in Florida’s economic recovery. Unemployment will remain stubbornly high and will not fall below 10% until the 4th quarter of 2012. • Unemployment rates may drift higher as the economy transitions into job growth mode. 2011 should mark the beginning of a long, slow, and steady decline in unemployment. The emphasis is still on slow - it may be 2018 before we see unemployment fall below 6% again. • The sectors forecasted to have the strongest average growth during 2011-2014 are Professional and Business Services (4.8 %); Trade, Transportation & Utilities (3.8%); Manufacturing (2.3%) and Leisure & Hospitality (2.0%). • Florida’s housing construction sector bottomed out in 2009 after a harrowing plunge. Housing starts will continue a painfully slow climb this year. Total starts at an annual rate will be 56.8 in the 4th quarter of 2011. By the 4th quarter of 2014 the number will be 168.8; more than 100,000 fewer starts than at the peak of the housing boom. • Real Gross State Product (RGSP) will expand 2.4% in 2011, and then accelerate to 3.3% in 2012, 3.6% in 2013 and 4.0% in 2014. • Real personal income growth turned positive in 2010. From 2011-2014, personal income growth will average 3.3%, and will peak at 4.7% in 2014. • Florida’s population growth will continue its slow recovery in 2011. By 2014, the growth rate could hit 1.9% as the damage from the Great Recession is repaired, and the Baby Boomer retiree influx starts to swell. • After a wobbly start to 2010, retail sales should finish stronger for the year. Retail sales will accelerate in 2011 and will grow at an average pace of 5.39% during 2012-2014.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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Table 1 Major Components of the State Business Tax Climate Index, FY 2011

State Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Overall Rank 28 2 34 39 49 15 47 8 5 25 22 18 23 10 45 35 19 36 31 44 32 17 43 21 16 6 29 4 7 48 33 50 41 20 46 30 14 26 42 24 1 27 13 9 38 12 11 37 40 3

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

Corporate Tax Index Rank 24 26 22 40 33 12 18 49 15 8 10 17 27 21 47 35 42 19 43 14 36 48 44 13 5 16 34 3 50 41 31 20 25 30 39 7 45 38 37 9 1 11 46 6 28 4 32 23 29 1

Individual Income Tax Index Rank 18 1 23 33 48 16 47 34 1 30 41 29 9 11 42 21 32 26 37 49 15 12 38 19 25 22 31 6 10 45 20 50 36 28 44 24 46 14 35 27 1 8 7 13 40 17 1 39 43 1

Sales Tax Index Rank

Unemployment Insurance Tax Index Rank

Property Tax Index Rank

2009 Gross State Product Rank

40 5 48 41 49 29 26 2 30 23 10 12 39 20 31 32 7 46 6 11 24 9 38 33 15 3 17 43 1 36 45 34 44 18 35 42 4 28 14 22 25 47 37 27 16 8 50 21 19 13

10 31 2 18 14 17 30 8 3 22 23 48 41 12 33 7 34 5 44 47 49 45 39 4 9 19 13 40 38 27 16 46 6 20 11 1 37 42 50 43 36 35 15 24 21 29 25 32 26 28

9 12 6 21 16 15 49 8 28 38 14 2 39 4 34 41 20 22 26 40 43 32 18 31 11 10 24 17 35 48 1 42 33 7 45 27 5 44 47 23 13 50 29 3 36 25 19 37 30 46

25 45 18 34 1 19 23 40 4 11 38 42 5 17 30 32 28 24 43 15 12 13 16 35 22 48 36 31 41 7 37 3 10 49 8 29 26 6 44 27 46 20 2 33 50 9 14 39 21 47

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T w o T a x C ut s t o P a r a d i s e ? As Florida struggles to close a nearly $4 billion budget shortfall, Governor Scott has asked for an additional $1 billion in tax cuts to corporate income and property taxes. This of course would necessitate that an additional billion dollars of spending cuts be made.

Table 1. The table displays the overall index ranking by state, along with the ranking for each of the main index’s five sub-indices. The final column displays state ranking based on 2009 Gross State Product also known as State GDP.

One of the goals that Governor Scott has stated, and one that all Floridians can support, is to create jobs. 700,000 jobs is the Governor’s goal, as stated in his 7-7-7 campaign slogan. Roughly 850,000 jobs were lost in the state during the recession and unemployment is still in double digits as the labor market has yet to fully participate in this economic recovery.

What states are the paragons for business climate, nirvanas for corporations? Who does Florida have to aspire to? Here are the four states that are our business tax climate superiors listed by their Tax Foundation ranking and their Gross State Product rankings in parentheses:

The argument is that Florida’s high tax burden is a disincentive to business and that by making these tax cuts we would attract business to Florida. As an economist I am in favor of these incentives, the policy carrots that help elicit desirable behavior on the part of individuals and businesses and help achieve goals.

One of the cornerstones of the Governor’s economic plan is cutting taxes, phasing out the corporate income tax and reducing property taxes. Given the size of the budget deficit, it is not clear if the legislature will enact any of the Governor’s tax cuts in this session, but it will be back another day, that much is certain. One thing that isn’t certain is the necessity of these tax cuts. Would they deliver Florida to the economic Promised Land?

I am always puzzled by the persistent opinion in Florida that the state’s government is too large and/or taxes in the state are too high. At first I thought my puzzlement was due to the fact I had relocated from California to Florida. I mean any state’s tax burden would have been an improvement over California’s. Except for New York that is, but more on that in a moment. In an earlier issue of the Florida & Metro Forecast (June 2009) we looked at some measurements of the size of government and the burden of taxation in Florida and at that time neither assertion seemed to stand up to the data.

Have things changed in the interim since our earlier examination of Florida’s tax burden? The 2011 Tax Foundation’s State Tax Business Climate Index published in October of 20101 suggests that very little has changed. The data from the Tax Foundation can be examined in 1 http://www.taxfoundation.org/files/bp60.pdf

Florida maintains its ranking as having the 5th best business tax climate in the country- the same ranking it has had since at least 2006. Should we cut taxes to improve our ranking? There are, after all, four states better than us as far as the tax climate for businesses are concerned.

1. 2. 3. 4.

South Dakota (46) Alaska (45) Wyoming (47) Nevada (31)

5. Florida (4)

If we improve our Tax Foundation ranking by eliminating the corporate income tax then we can look forward to siphoning off corporations and economic activity from South Dakota, Alaska, Wyoming and Nevada.

This strategy for some reason reminds me of the final scene of the Oscar winning movie, There Will Be Blood. Daniel Day Lewis as Daniel Plainview takes revenge on Paul Dano as the preacher Eli Sunday for humiliating him earlier in the movie. Daniel delights in telling Eli the oil fields he wants to sell to Plainview’s company have already been drained by his company’s drilling in adjacent fields allowing them to extract the oil from beneath the preacher’s fields. Eli Sunday: If you would just--Plainview: You lose. Eli Sunday: Take this lease, Daniel-Plainview: Drainage! Drainage, Eli, you boy. Drained dry, I’m so sorry. Here: if you have a milkshake... and I have a milkshake... and I have a straw; there it is, that’s the straw, see? Watch it. My straw reaches across the room... and starts to drink your milkshake: I... drink... your... milkshake! [slurps] I drink it up! Eli Sunday: Don’t bully me, Daniel! [Plainview picks up Eli and tosses him on the ground]

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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It just gets worse for the poor preacher from this point on, but I don’t want to spoil the movie.

So would our new and improved business tax climate lead to a “drainage” of companies and jobs from the state(s) that we pass on this ranking? Are coal, oil, natural gas, other mining and agricultural companies going to relocate from these four states to Florida as a result? Could even lower taxes in Florida allow us to drink these states’ milkshakes and thereby fatten our economy at their expense?

There is not much room for improvement as far as the tax climate in Florida is concerned and trying to be the cheapest date in the country is not going to bolster the number of suitors Florida has. There is very little to win in our race to the tax bottom. Those tax revenues could be used to more effectively to grow the economy through investment in infrastructure or education. These things would be far more attractive to businesses than a marginal improvement in the business tax climate.

If Florida gives tax credits to industries that provide education and training to their employees more companies will make the effort to upgrade their employees’ skills and invest in their ongoing education. The dual benefit of tax credits and a more productive staff will lead to more companies choosing this path. The macroeconomic effects of this policy will come from having a labor force that is more productive and skilled. This is a powerful attractant for businesses and Florida can build a reputation for having a skilled and dynamic workforce, one that the state is investing in and supporting. A non-targeted tax cut alone does not provide this secondary benefit of a continually improving workforce. The Bright Futures program supports college education for high school students, but does nothing for the 77.7% of Floridians who do not have a bachelor’s degree. It does not support those who already have a degree and seek additional education. It doesn’t support non-degree educational activities.

If the Governor is dead set on cutting taxes, why not use the tax cuts to incentivize behavior on the part of corporations? That provides an ongoing benefit to Florida while bolstering the state’s ability to help attract businesses and help current business to prosper.

We need a Bright Futures program for all Floridians, and tax cuts for businesses that pay for their employees’ education may be one way to boost Florida’s economy, create jobs and help raise the standard of living for all of Florida’s workers.

Ta r g ete d Ta x C ut s f o r E d ucati o n a n d T r ai n i n g : A Bright Futures for All Floridians

F l o r i d a’ s H o u s i n g Ma r k et : A Double Dip in Progress?

I have written and spoken, as have many others, about the fact that the days of job security are long gone. The opportunity to work for one company your entire career, retire with a gold watch and a fixed benefit pension are now little more than a historical relic. In a globalized economy the best we can now aspire to is employment security. In order for workers to achieve this we will have to continually educate ourselves, upgrade skills during our working lives and in many cases change careers entirely over the course of our working lives.

Increasingly, we will be competing with workers in China, India, Brazil and other countries around the globe. The way we must win these competitions, and maintain or grow our standard of living, is to bolster our productivity. We cannot compete on the cost of labor alone; we will continue to lose jobs in industries that depend on this model to compete. Education and training help raise productivity and thus can support employment at higher wages.

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

Florida’s housing market continues to show weakness and sales have wavered in recent months. Median prices continue their years-long march downward.

Foreclosures continue to be a problem, though recently released statistics that show a slowdown in foreclosure activity might give one the false impression that the problem is fading. This plunge in foreclosure activity was a function of the moratorium that some banks imposed as they sorted through the robo-signing issue. This was a temporary slowing of foreclosure which is an unfortunate, but necessary, part of the housing cycle. Florida’s courts are still glutted with a backlog of foreclosures and the size of the shadow inventory of foreclosed homes that banks are still carrying on their books adds another element of uncertainty to the market.

47% of Floridians are underwater on their mortgages – nearly one in two mortgage holders in Florida owe more in mortgage debt than their home is worth. For these homeowners their house has gone from being a net asset, a source of wealth they could count on in retirement or draw upon via home equity borrowing, to a net liability - a hole in their balance sheet that homeowners must attempt

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to repair via higher saving. Higher rates of saving translate into lower levels of spending, another channel through which the housing market continues to be a drag on Florida’s economic recovery.

Figures 1 and 2 display monthly data through February 2011 for the market for single family, existing homes released by the Florida Realtors. The darker and smoother line in each graph is the 12-month moving average of each of the unadjusted monthly series shown with a lighter and more variable line. Sales (Figure 1) have lost the momentum that had built up, as the post-first time homebuyer’s tax credit sales lull set in. This, coupled with continued weakness in the economy, led to a wobbling in the 12-month moving average of sales. This is the first decline of that moving average in over two years. Whether this weakness is the start of a new and troublesome trend or just a temporary slowdown after the tax credit pulled future demand to earlier in the year remains to be seen.

Median prices (Figure 2) have not yet reached a bottom after their steep decline. The rate at which median prices are declining has slowed, but not stopped. The still significant inventory associated with the ongoing foreclosure crisis, slowly improving economic fundamentals, and credit conditions will continue to push this bottom over the near term.

When will prices stop falling? Simply put, they will when supply and demand are back in balance. A state of being for the housing market that is almost entirely dependent upon an improvement in Florida’s economy and more specifically its labor market.

Out l o o k f o r F l o r i d a 2011-2014 Florida’s Economic Future Continues to Brighten After a long and harrowing recession, the aftermath of which will be felt in Florida for years and in some sectors more than a decade, Florida’s economic prospects continue to get brighter. We expect that Florida’s recovery will slowly build momentum this year before getting up to full speed in 2012 and accelerating further through 2014. This economic growth will slowly help the labor market down its long and difficult path of recovery and even the construction sector will begin to grow in the latter half of our forecast horizon.

Median prices in Florida once reached $257,800 in 2006 but have now fallen to just $121,900. This is a tremendous loss of wealth for the median homeowner in Florida, with prices that are now back at levels last seen in 2001.

Despite this good news, the near term economic picture for Florida is for a relatively modest pace of recovery, particularly for the labor market. Going forward the labor has become the lynchpin for Florida’s overall economic recovery. Job creation and falling unemployment will help boost tax revenues via higher retail sales and more discretionary spending in general. The start of the housing market’s long and winding road to recovery is intertwined with that of the labor market.

Figure 1. Existing Housing Sales

Figure 2. Median Housing Prices

Florida Florida

Single Single Family,Family, ExistingExisting Homes Homes 30000 25000

SingleSingle Family, Existing Homes Family, Existing Homes $300,000.00

Realtor Sales

$250,000.00

Moving Average

20000

Median Sales Price Moving Average

$200,000.00

15000

$150,000.00

10000

$100,000.00

5000

$50,000.00

Data Source: Florida Realtors

Data Source: Florida Realtors Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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While there are many more reasons to be optimistic about Florida’s recovery in this quarter’s forecast, the reality is that the damage inflicted by the Great Recession, financial and housing crises will linger for many years. As touched upon in the housing section above, the amount of wealth in the form of home equity that has been destroyed by the housing bust will not be recovered quickly. My rough estimate of the amount of home equity lost by Florida’s homeowners puts the wealth loss at over $1.1 trillion. This lost wealth will be an albatross around the necks of Florida’s homeowners for years, if not a decade or more.

G r o s s State P r o d uct Real Gross State Product (GSP) in Florida, the statelevel analogue to Real GDP returned to a growth pattern in 2010. Growth was modest last year and will likely remain so for 2011, with growth in the latter half of this year outpacing the first. The economy got back on its feet in 2010, albeit on legs that were still rubbery. 2011 will continue the expansion, but growth will remain subdued until confidence in the recovery continues to provide support for the economy and the labor market also begins to improve. In 2012, that confidence and labor market recovery will both be in place, along with more robust growth. The hurdles that Florida’s consumers have to overcome in some cases are substantially higher than consumers in many states around the nation. These include, as mentioned above, greatly diminished home equity; persistently high unemployment rates; and paltry job creation to date. This combination delayed Florida’s recovery and will weigh upon it over the next year. However, as 2011 gives way to 2012 and beyond, the economy will begin to grow more rapidly.

Real GDP growth in 2011 is expected to come in at 2.4% after which growth will accelerate to 3.3% in 2012, 3.6% in 2013 and 4.0% in 2014.

Nominal Gross State Product is expected to reach nearly $918.9 billion in 2014, as Florida progresses toward becoming a trillion-dollar economy. The state will likely cross that threshold five years from now in 2016. Florida’s economy is large and expected to grow even larger in the years ahead. Today it is the world’s 18th largest economy as measured by nominal GDP and will climb higher in these ranks.

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

P e r s o n a l I n c o m e , Retai l Sa l e s , a n d A ut o Sa l e s Personal income growth quarter-over-quarter accelerated in the fourth quarter in Florida. It increased slightly more than $6.4 billion after increasing $3.8 billion from the second quarter to the third quarter of 2010. Growth will be higher through 2011, and lose a little momentum in 2012 before personal income growth accelerates into 2013 and 2014.

Personal income growth will lag that of the nation as a whole through 2011. In 2012, the roles are reversed and Florida outpaces the nation with personal income growth that is an average of three quarters of a percentage point higher than the nation through 2014. This will be the first time since 2006 that personal income growth in Florida has been higher than the national rate. Personal income will reach nearly $900 billion in 2014 - a year that will boast growth of 6.6%. Real disposable income growth, which also has been depressed by the struggling economy, increased to 0.7% in 2010, the first acceleration of growth since 2006. This acceleration of real disposable income should persist this year. In 2011, growth should come in at 1.8% and remain at that level though the fourth quarter of 2012. In 2013 and 2014, the strengthening of economic growth will further boost the growth rate of real disposable income in those years. There is also the likelihood of some form of tax cuts being implemented by Governor Scott’s administration that, in addition to economic growth, will help boost disposable income. The stock market has made a strong recovery from the lows of the financial crisis. Sentiment has turned decidedly bullish and bodes well for the future. A continued running of the bulls will help to recoup more of the trillions of dollars of wealth that are still lost from the stock market’s pre-crisis highs. The housing market in Florida has had no such luck, and housing prices still seem to be struggling to find a bottom. The home equity that has been lost ($1.1 trillion +) could take decades to recover. In Florida, consumers have little choice when it comes to trying to rebuild their nest eggs, other than to save more of their income and to try to restore what was lost. This negative wealth effect will continue to weigh upon consumer spending.

Florida’s double digit unemployment will also continue to weigh on consumer spending in Florida. As the labor market shifts into a mode where private sector job creation begins, it will further help lift consumer confidence. New hiring and a clearer sense that their own jobs are now safe will, however, help to unlock some of the pent-up

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consumer spending that resulted from prior job insecurity.

High oil and gasoline prices have now decided to pile on Floridaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s consumers. Gasoline is marching toward the $4.00 a gallon mark, a level that many analysts believe will be broached by summer. This is a wildcard in the Florida forecast as the impact of high oil prices on tourism creates a double whammy for the Florida economy. Despite this wildcard, retail sales in Florida will grow at 7.1% in 2011, in part, ironically, due to higher gasoline prices. Once the labor market has fully stabilized and begins its long path to recovery retail spending will begin to recover in other areas as well. We expect retail sales to expand an average of 5.8% in 2011-2014. The average growth rate of retail sales will be nearly 5.4% over the 2012-2014 time frame. Although retail sales growth will not reach the levels experienced during the height of the housing boom, it should help to alleviate the budget crisis in Tallahassee in 2012 and 2013.

As the economy continues to improve, consumersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; pentup demand for automobiles and light trucks will continue to be unleashed. 2010 was the start of a multi-year rise in the number of new passenger car and truck registrations. Growth will be robust during 2011-2014 averaging nearly 16%. In 2014, registrations will reach 1.52 million and that represents a 218% increase from the 2009 nadir and higher than the level of registrations during the height of the housing boom.

E m p loy m e n t The revised data finally has come in, we had expected overall payroll employment growth in the state to shrink by -0.5% for 2010 versus 2009, instead it fell by -1.0%. This comes after contracting at a -6.2% rate in 2009 compared to 2008, and -3.5% in the year prior to that. Payroll job growth will finally take root in 2011. However, like any new sprout, job growth will be small at first, and it will only gain significant momentum in 2012, when job growth versus a year ago is expected to come in at 2.3%. This year will also mark the first time since 2006 that job growth in Florida exceeds the national rate of job growth. Payroll job growth will reach 3.0% in 2014.

The woes of the Construction sector are well documented and unfortunately very persistent. This sector has been shedding jobs prolifically after peaking during the housing boom. It will continue to reflect the state of the housing market, mortgage availability, and an ongoing struggle in the commercial construction sector. The bottoming of the residential real estate market will give way to a slightly higher level of housing starts. This

level is not much above the bottom for starts and will be a plateau upon which the levels of starts will remain for most of 2011. As 2012 begins, housing starts will once again resume their climb. Until this happens, do not expect to see any job growth in the Construction sector.

Job growth will not return to the Construction sector until the 2nd quarter of 2012 when this will be the last private sector of the economy to join in the recovery. Job growth rates are expected to surge from 2.0% in 2012 to 11.4% in 2013 and 13.6% in 2014. These growth rates are large but are being calculated from a dramatically lower base of employment in the sector. By the end of 2014, employment in this sector should be back at levels previously reached in 1998.

The Professional and Business Services sector will be one of the early beneficiaries of the recovery. Legal, tax, payroll and accounting firms to advertising and public relations companies and others in this sector will reap the benefits of a higher level of economic activity. Job gains will be relatively modest in the near term but will accelerate. Job growth will not be as dramatic as we were projecting last quarter, but it will still be the fastest growing sector. By the 4th quarter of 2011 job growth in the sector will be 1.4%. For the full year, 2011 will turn in job growth at 0.5% and will accelerate and reach 4.4% in 2012, 6.0% in 2013 and 8.1% in 2014. This sector will recover quickly and will get back to pre-recession levels of employment before the end of 2013. The Information sector will continue to shed jobs through the first half of 2011, before employment stabilizes and starts to expand by the end of 2011. Newspapers continue to adapt to the structural changes transforming the industry. Advertising revenues should be stable and begin to rise in part due to an improving outlook for the automotive sector. Several major newspapers and publishing groups still struggle to adapt business models for the reality of a Twitter-Huffpo-Drudge world. However, wireless communication, software, satellite telecommunications, data services and software should benefit from the expansion. Job growth should return to the Information sector in the middle of 2011 and this will be just the second year of job growth in this sector in 10 prior years, including five straight years of net job losses leading up to 2011. Job growth will jump to 4.7% in 2012 as the recovery kicks into gear, and average 1.4% in 2013-2014. The one sector that has been a continual job generator during the recession and that is expected to continue to expand through the end of our forecast horizon is the Health and Education sector. During 2011-2014, Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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employment in this sector is expected to expand at an average rate of 1.9%. Budget woes will likely reduce employment levels in the education side of the sector and schools face significant budget shortfalls.

Recent court rulings regarding national health care reform as well as a number of pending lawsuits against various aspects of this legislation obscure the future of the healthcare sector. It is still difficult to tell precisely how politics and the legal system will ultimately impact healthcare in Florida. Budget battles will put Medicare and Medicaid in the spotlight, but clearly, with momentum generally toward expanding coverage and our older, aging population, it appears that demand for health services will remain strong in the foreseeable future. This rising demand will continue to drive job growth in this sector. Manufacturing employment will contract in Florida through the first half of 2011. Globalization and productivity gains in manufacturing have reduced employment in this sector for the better part of a decade. The sector is emerging from this period as competitive as it has been in many years prior. As Nietzsche said, “that which does not kill us makes us stronger.” This and a weakened dollar will help drive job growth as exports continue to rise.

We are expecting to see job growth of 3.5% in this sector for the full year in 2012, followed by an even stronger year of job growth in 2013, when manufacturing employment will expand at a rate of 2.9%. For the first time in over two decades, manufacturing is expected to gain jobs in three consecutive years, as 2013 job growth is expected to be 1.7%.

U n e m p loy m e n t Unemployment rates in Florida remain at painfully high levels, despite the fact that the recession came to an end in the state. Real Gross State Product has been growing since the 1st quarter of 2010 but the unemployment rate is just now expected to begin its final descent. The labor market cycle tends to lag the economic cycle overall, but the weak nature of the recovery and the uncertainty that seems to permeate the economy have worked to delay and dampen the labor market recovery.

Unemployment could drift up in the 2nd quarter of 2011, and it will remain above 10% until the 4th quarter of 2012. In 2011, unemployment will begin its slow decline and it will continue to fall through the end of 2014. By the end of 2014, unemployment will still be uncomfortably high at 7.7%. 12

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

Payroll job growth will trigger the reentry of discouraged workers who had abandoned the job search; this swelling of the labor force, which has not yet begun to happen as the labor force continues to fall, will make the reduction in the unemployment rate more difficult. Compared to unsustainably low levels of unemployment during the boom, these levels are still quite high. In fact, we do not expect to see unemployment in Florida fall below 6.0% again until 2017 Q4.

The problem of underemployment and marginally attached workers– those who are neither working nor looking for work, but indicate that they want and are available for a job, and have looked for work sometime in the past twelve months— and those who have given up searching for a job entirely, is substantial and, as just noted, it will be a factor behind the persistently high unemployment rate. When adding these workers to the top level unemployment figure, this broader measure of unemployment, known as U6, paints an even grimmer picture of labor markets, and is currently 19.3% through the 4th quarter of 2010 in Florida, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s

Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

582.8

633.2

690.3

720.5

737.9

720.9

Florida (%Ch)

9.7

8.7

9.0

4.4

2.4

-2.3

U.S.(%Ch)

6.0

5.5

7.5

5.7

4.0

600.1

633.1

671.8

682.5

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

738.2

771.0

801.8

844.0

899.7

2.4

4.4

4.0

5.3

6.6

-1.7

3.0

5.1

3.5

4.5

5.6

676.7

659.9

664.3

680.7

697.3

722.4

756.2 4.7

Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)

Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch)

6.9

5.5

6.1

1.6

-0.9

-2.5

0.7

2.5

2.4

3.6

10.1

4.3

7.6

-4.6

-0.1

-6.6

3.0

5.3

5.4

4.2

6.7

543.3

564.1

598.4

608.0

613.9

611.4

615.6

626.7

637.9

651.5

678.8

Florida (%Ch)

6.3

3.8

6.1

1.6

1.0

-0.4

0.7

1.8

2.1

4.2

U.S.(%Ch)

3.4

1.3

4.0

2.3

1.7

0.6

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.3

3.6

621.2

680.3

730.2

758.0

747.8

729.5

754.6

784.3

822.0

865.9

918.9

U.S.(%Ch) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$)

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch)

8.3

9.5

7.4

3.8

-1.3

-2.4

3.4

3.9

4.8

5.3

6.1

641.0

680.3

706.6

712.6

690.0

661.0

675.3

691.5

714.0

740.0

769.8

(%Ch)

5.2

6.1

3.9

0.9

-3.2

-4.2

2.2

2.4

3.3

3.6

4.0

Employment

3.0

3.8

3.3

1.4

-1.0

-4.7

-0.6

5.8

9.5

8.1

7.0

Labor Force

2.3

2.9

2.8

2.1

1.4

-0.6

0.9

5.4

8.2

6.9

5.8

FL Unemployment Rate (%)

4.7

3.8

3.3

4.0

6.2

10.2

11.5

11.2

10.1

9.1

8.0

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

5.5

5.1

4.6

5.8

9.3

9.6

9.0

8.6

8.0

7.2

2.2

GSP (Bil. 2000$)

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago)

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S.

1.1

1.7

1.8

1.1

-0.6

-4.4

-0.7

1.0

1.8

2.0

Florida

3.4

4.0

2.6

0.2

-3.5

-6.2

-1.0

0.4

2.3

2.9

3.0

Mining

0.2

-0.8

-6.5

1.6

-7.9

-11.4

-2.2

-0.2

-0.3

-0.2

-0.6

Construction

9.4

11.3

7.2

-8.8

-17.4

-23.3

-11.5

-5.7

2.0

11.4

13.6

Manufacturing

0.2

1.2

0.3

-4.2

-7.0

-12.7

-5.2

-0.1

3.5

3.9

1.7

-2.0

-1.7

-2.0

-1.5

-6.2

-10.1

-4.0

-0.3

0.1

-0.1

-0.9

Durable Goods

1.4

2.7

1.3

-5.4

-7.4

-14.0

-5.8

0.0

5.3

5.9

3.0

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

1.6

3.8

1.4

0.1

-2.1

-6.7

-2.2

1.5

5.6

4.4

3.7

Wholesale Trade

3.4

4.1

2.9

1.5

-3.1

-8.0

-3.3

1.7

4.2

3.3

2.6

Retail Trade

2.8

4.1

2.0

0.4

-2.9

-6.6

0.2

-0.1

1.9

2.5

1.1

Financial Activities

3.8

5.0

3.2

-1.0

-4.6

-7.4

-2.7

-0.5

2.5

1.7

1.0

Prof. and Business Services

5.9

7.2

4.3

0.7

-6.1

-8.0

0.5

4.4

6.0

8.1

Edu & Health Services

2.9

2.5

2.7

3.1

2.1

1.2

1.8

1.7

2.2

1.6

1.9

Leisure & Hospitality

4.2

2.7

1.5

2.0

-1.4

-4.6

0.2

3.3

2.6

1.3

0.7

-2.1

0.2

-0.9

-0.3

-3.4

-8.7

-4.9

0.2

4.7

1.9

1.0

Federal Gov't.

0.4

1.5

-0.7

0.2

1.4

2.3

6.9

-6.2

-2.2

-2.0

State & Local Gov't.

1.4

2.0

2.4

0.2

-1.4

-1.0

-0.4

-0.8

1.0

1.6

Nondurable Goods

Information

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)

17,497.4 17,904.0 18,212.0 18,418.7 18,579.6 18,714.6 18,858.9 19,030.2 19,260.8 19,564.8 19,936.4 2.4

2.3

1.7

1.1

0.9

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.2

1.6

1.9

Net Migration (thous)

93.0

78.5

48.9

30.8

22.5

19.4

24.4

33.2

50.5

68.5

83.1

(%Ch)

17.8

-15.3

-39.2

-33.3

-27.4

-10.2

25.7

35.7

52.6

36.0

21.6

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

238.7

272.7

205.2

101.7

60.8

33.8

39.6

47.0

87.4

132.5

161.6

Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

183.1

211.4

156.3

74.9

40.8

27.3

32.5

37.6

70.6

105.9

123.0

55.7

61.3

48.9

26.9

20.0

6.5

7.1

9.4

16.7

26.6

38.6

2.9

4.6

4.1

3.4

1.2

2.6

1.8

1.9

2.2

Housing

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

Consumer Prices (%Ch)

4.3

-0.2

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s

Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)

759.6

766.8

774.6

783.1

786.4

796.3

806.9

817.5

827.8

838.5

849.0

860.6

878.0

891.9

Florida (%Ch)

4.3

4.1

4.6

4.8

3.5

3.8

4.2

4.4

5.3

5.2

5.3

6.1

6.4

U.S.(%Ch)

4.9

4.7

5.3

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.6

4.5

5.4

5.5

674.0

678.6

682.7

687.4

687.7

694.2

700.4

707.0

713.1

719.3

725.3

732.0

743.1

751.1

Florida (%Ch)

2.7

2.1

2.4

2.7

2.0

2.3

2.6

2.9

3.7

3.6

3.5

4.2

4.4

U.S.(%Ch)

4.4

6.1

6.4

6.3

5.8

5.1

4.5

3.8

3.9

4.3

4.8

6.3

7.0

621.3

625.0

628.3

632.2

630.2

635.7

640.3

645.2

645.5

648.7

652.8

659.1

666.2

674.0

Florida(%Ch)

2.1

1.5

1.7

2.0

1.4

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.4

2.0

1.9

2.2

3.2

3.9

U.S.(%Ch)

1.7

1.1

1.3

1.6

1.3

1.6

1.8

1.7

1.2

1.1

1.2

2.7

3.3

770.5

779.4

789.4

797.9

806.7

815.7

826.7

838.8

847.9

859.7

872.0

884.1

899.2

913.1

Personal Income (Bil. 2000$)

Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$)

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch)

3.6

3.8

3.9

4.4

4.7

5.1

5.4

5.5

5.4

6.1

6.2

684.0

689.0

693.5

699.6

704.4

710.3

716.9

724.5

729.1

736.3

743.8

750.6

759.1

766.7

(%Ch)

2.1

2.4

2.8

3.0

3.1

3.4

3.6

3.5

3.7

3.8

3.6

4.1

Employment

2.6

4.3

6.9

9.6

9.9

9.6

8.9

8.6

8.2

7.9

7.8

7.5

7.2

Labor Force

2.7

4.4

6.4

8.2

8.5

8.4

8.1

7.7

7.4

7.1

6.7

6.5

6.2

5.9

11.4

11.5

11.2

10.8

10.5

10.2

10.0

9.8

9.5

9.3

9.0

8.7

8.4

8.1

9.0

9.1

9.0

8.8

8.7

8.5

8.4

8.2

8.1

7.9

7.7

7.5

7.3

GSP (Bil. 2000$)

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago)

FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S.

0.9

0.7

1.1

1.4

1.6

1.8

1.9

2.1

2.2

2.3

Florida

0.3

-0.1

0.4

1.0

1.7

2.2

2.6

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

Mining

2.2

0.3

-1.2

-2.1

-1.7

-0.5

0.2

0.7

0.6

0.0

-0.5

-0.7

-0.8

-0.6

Construction

-6.5

-6.2

-3.5

-1.8

0.4

3.0

6.4

9.2

10.8

12.2

13.5

14.2

Manufacturing

-1.4

-0.8

0.0

1.7

2.6

3.2

3.8

4.4

4.6

4.3

3.7

3.1

2.3

1.7

Nondurable Goods

-0.3

0.0

-0.5

-0.6

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.3

-0.6

-0.9

Durable Goods

-1.9

-1.2

0.2

2.9

4.0

4.9

5.7

6.6

6.8

6.5

5.6

4.7

3.7

3.0

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

-0.1

0.1

2.2

3.8

5.3

6.2

5.7

5.3

4.7

4.4

4.2

4.1

4.0

3.9

Wholesale Trade

-0.2

0.4

2.5

4.0

4.4

4.6

3.9

3.7

3.5

3.3

3.5

3.0

2.9

2.8

Retail Trade

0.9

-0.3

-0.9

-0.3

0.4

1.7

2.7

2.9

2.8

2.5

2.1

1.8

1.3

-1.5

-0.9

-0.2

0.4

1.8

2.4

2.9

2.8

2.4

1.9

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.2

Prof. and Business Services

0.3

1.4

3.8

4.2

4.6

4.8

4.9

5.5

6.5

7.3

7.9

8.5

Edu & Health Services

1.3

1.4

2.0

2.1

2.3

2.4

2.2

2.0

1.6

1.7

1.5

2.1

1.9

Leisure & Hospitality

3.7

3.4

3.5

2.5

2.4

2.7

2.9

2.5

1.9

1.3

0.9

0.7

Financial Activities

Information

-2.4

-1.3

1.0

3.4

5.1

5.5

4.2

3.9

3.2

2.2

1.7

0.4

0.2

0.9

Federal Gov't.

-1.6

-16.3

-6.2

-0.8

-1.9

-2.1

-2.3

-2.4

-2.3

-2.2

-2.1

0.0

-0.1

-0.4

-1.1

-1.3

-1.2

-0.6

0.0

0.3

0.8

1.2

1.6

1.8

State & Local Gov't.

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)

18,958.9 19,003.7 19,052.6 19,105.5 19,163.0 19,225.1 19,291.9 19,363.2 19,439.2 19,519.9 19,605.2 19,695.0 19,788.1 19,884.7 0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

Net Migration (thous)

27.4

31.2

35.2

39.2

43.7

48.2

52.8

57.3

61.8

66.4

70.8

75.1

78.3

81.6

(%Ch)

25.8

31.8

37.4

47.8

59.9

54.6

49.9

46.0

41.3

37.6

34.2

31.1

26.8

22.9

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

38.7

43.5

48.9

56.8

66.5

79.6

96.0

107.4

117.1

128.9

137.8

146.3

152.8

159.3

Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

29.9

34.6

39.6

46.1

54.2

63.9

77.6

86.9

94.6

104.0

110.4

114.9

117.9

121.8

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

8.8

8.9

9.3

10.6

12.2

15.7

18.4

20.5

22.5

24.9

27.4

31.4

34.9

37.5

(%Ch)

2.4

2.6

2.7

2.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

Housing

Consumer Prices

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

1.9

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s

Table 3. Employment Quarterly* 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7,174.0

7,186.6

7,210.6

7,247.9

7,296.7

7,345.3

7,395.2

7,447.5

7,495.0

7,548.6

7,612.0

7,671.5

7,730.7

7,786.8

Manufacturing

303.8

305.6

307.3

308.9

311.8

315.5

319.0

322.6

326.2

329.1

330.8

332.5

333.7

334.9

Durable Goods

199.2

201.0

202.6

204.4

207.2

210.8

214.3

217.8

221.4

224.4

226.2

228.1

229.6

231.1

8.6

8.8

9.0

9.4

10.0

10.5

11.2

11.5

11.7

11.9

12.0

12.1

12.3

43.0

43.4

43.5

43.6

43.2

43.5

43.6

44.9

45.5

45.4

45.3

Wood Products Computer & Electronics Transportation Equipment

33.1

33.5

34.1

34.7

35.4

36.2

36.9

37.6

38.1

38.7

39.3

39.8

40.2

40.6

104.6

104.7

104.5

104.6

104.7

104.8

104.7

104.8

104.7

104.6

104.4

104.1

103.8

27.7

27.6

27.7

27.6

27.5

6,870.1

6,881.0

6,903.3

6,939.0

6,984.9

7,029.8

7,076.1

7,125.0

7,168.8

7,219.5

7,281.2

7,339.0

7,397.0

7,451.9

5.4

5.3

Construction

329.3

327.7

326.0

322.9

323.5

329.1

335.7

343.7

353.3

364.5

376.8

390.1

403.5

416.2

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

224.0

225.1

228.8

232.3

235.9

239.1

241.9

244.6

247.0

249.5

252.2

254.7

256.8

259.1

Wholesale Trade

307.7

309.8

314.5

318.3

321.2

324.2

326.7

330.2

332.3

335.0

338.1

340.1

342.1

344.2

Retail Trade

926.5

922.4

919.3

923.7

930.4

938.3

944.2

950.6

956.2

962.1

968.1

971.0

973.1

974.8

Information

133.3

133.5

136.3

138.9

140.2

140.8

142.1

144.3

144.6

143.9

144.5

144.9

145.0

145.2

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Prof. & Bus. Services

1,031.4

1,036.7

1,045.3

1,056.4

1,070.8

1,080.7

1,093.8

1,107.5

1,123.2

1,139.9

1,164.7

1,188.1

1,212.4

1,236.7

Admin. & Support

520.4

523.2

529.0

538.9

551.6

560.9

573.2

584.7

594.7

604.5

621.8

636.3

654.0

670.9

Prof. Sci & Tech

433.3

435.7

438.6

439.6

441.0

441.3

441.8

443.6

449.0

455.4

462.6

471.1

477.1

484.0

77.6

77.7

77.9

78.1

78.5

78.8

79.2

79.5

79.9

80.3

80.7

81.3

81.8

Financial Activities

Mgmt. of Co.

465.5

466.1

468.0

470.7

474.0

477.1

481.5

484.0

485.4

486.0

487.6

489.8

490.8

491.6

Real Estate & Rent

150.4

151.8

152.9

154.0

155.4

156.7

158.3

159.4

160.1

160.8

161.7

162.6

163.5

164.4

Fin. & Insurance

315.1

314.2

315.1

316.7

318.7

320.4

323.2

324.6

325.3

325.1

325.9

327.2

327.3

327.2

1,088.4

1,092.9

1,100.3

1,108.4

1,113.8

1,119.6

1,124.6

1,130.3

1,131.1

1,138.3

1,143.2

1,147.5

1,154.8

1,160.4

Education Services

153.7

154.0

153.7

153.0

152.4

151.8

151.2

150.9

150.5

150.2

150.0

149.8

149.6

Health Services

934.6

938.8

946.6

954.7

960.8

967.2

972.8

979.1

980.1

987.8

992.9

997.4

1,005.0

1,010.9

Leisure & Hospitality

940.0

945.0

947.8

953.7

962.9

970.8

975.1

977.9

981.5

983.0

984.2

986.7

988.2

989.7

Other Services

311.1

311.8

312.4

313.7

314.5

314.2

314.7

315.5

316.5

316.6

317.1

317.4

317.9

318.5

1,107.6

1,104.6

1,099.2

1,094.5

1,092.3

1,090.6

1,090.5

1,090.9

1,092.3

1,095.4

1,099.4

1,103.3

1,107.3

1,110.1

Federal Gov't.

133.3

132.7

132.2

131.5

130.7

129.9

129.1

128.4

127.7

127.0

126.3

125.6

124.9

124.3

State & Local Gov't

974.4

971.9

967.0

963.0

961.6

960.7

961.3

962.5

964.6

968.5

973.1

977.7

982.3

985.8

Edu. & Health Service

Government

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s

Table 4. Employment Annual 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Total Nonfarm

7,498.5

7,799.5

8,003.7

8,019.0

7,735.5

7,251.8

7,177.2

Manufacturing

410.6

415.5

416.5

399.0

371.1

323.9

Durable Goods

2011

2012

2013

2014

7204.75

7,371.2

7,581.8

7,810.3

306.8

306.4

317.2

329.6

335.3

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands)

273.7

281.0

284.7

269.2

249.3

214.4

201.8

212.5

225.0

231.7

Wood Products

20.3

22.4

21.6

17.0

12.8

9.1

8.5

8.8

10.3

11.8

12.3

Computer & Electronics

52.5

51.4

50.1

49.2

48.0

44.6

42.9

43.3

43.5

45.3

45.4

Transportation Equipment

44.3

45.6

45.7

44.6

42.5

34.9

33.5

33.9

36.5

39.0

40.7

136.9

134.5

131.8

129.8

121.7

109.4

105.0

104.6

104.7

104.6

103.6

33.9

32.8

31.4

31.7

29.7

27.9

27.3

27.7

27.6

27.5

7,087.9

7,384.0

7,587.2

7,620.0

7,364.4

6,927.9

6,870.4

6,898.3

7,053.9

7,252.1

7,475.0

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining Construction

7.1

6.6

6.7

6.2

5.5

5.4

5.3

633.0

677.8

618.5

511.5

392.3

346.2

326.5

333.0

371.2

421.7

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

238.4

247.4

250.9

251.2

245.8

229.4

224.2

227.6

240.4

250.8

260.2

Wholesale Trade

328.0

341.4

351.3

356.7

345.6

317.9

307.4

312.6

325.6

336.4

345.1

Retail Trade

954.2

993.8

1,013.8

1,018.2

988.6

922.8

924.3

923.0

940.9

964.3

975.3

Information

162.9

163.2

161.8

161.3

155.9

142.4

135.3

135.5

141.9

144.5

145.9

1,062.1

1,137.9

1,186.8

1,194.6

1,121.3

1,031.7

1,036.8

1,042.4

1,088.2

1,154.0

1,247.2

Admin. & Support

583.4

629.2

655.8

653.3

582.1

520.5

528.4

527.9

567.6

614.3

678.2

Prof. Sci & Tech

403.8

431.1

451.6

460.2

456.4

431.3

430.6

436.8

441.9

459.5

486.9

Prof. & Bus. Services

Mgmt. of Co.

74.9

77.6

79.3

81.1

82.8

80.0

77.8

77.7

78.6

80.1

82.0

Financial Activities

510.3

535.8

552.7

547.2

521.9

483.4

470.1

467.6

479.2

487.2

492.2

Real Estate & Rent

166.5

176.7

182.5

178.1

169.8

154.9

150.6

152.3

157.4

161.3

164.9

Fin. & Insurance

343.8

359.1

370.2

369.1

352.1

328.5

319.6

315.3

321.7

325.9

327.3

Edu. & Health Service

945.8

969.0

994.8

1,025.4

1,047.0

1,059.8

1,078.9

1,097.5

1,122.1

1,140.0

1,161.7

Education Services

118.8

124.7

128.3

134.1

138.0

143.0

151.2

153.8

152.1

150.4

149.5

Health Services

827.1

844.4

866.5

891.3

909.0

916.9

927.7

943.7

970.0

989.6

1,012.3

Leisure & Hospitality

914.7

939.2

953.3

972.2

958.8

915.0

916.8

946.6

971.7

983.9

990.7

Other Services

329.3

334.9

338.1

345.6

335.4

312.6

310.2

312.3

314.7

316.9

318.6

1,066.5

1,081.2

1,099.4

1,122.4

1,126.5

1,115.2

1,114.8

1,101.5

1,091.1

1,097.6

1,111.0

Federal Gov't.

126.8

128.7

127.8

128.0

129.8

132.7

141.9

132.4

129.5

126.6

124.1

State & Local Gov't

939.7

952.6

971.6

994.4

996.7

982.5

972.9

969.1

961.5

971.0

986.9

Government

7.1 568.5

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s

Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly* 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

759.6

766.8

774.6

783.1

786.4

796.3

806.9

817.5

827.8

838.5

849.0

860.6

878.0

891.9

Wages & Salaries

332.2

336.9

340.7

345.1

349.9

354.7

359.5

364.4

369.4

374.5

380.0

385.3

391.0

396.3

Other Labor Income

77.9

78.1

79.3

80.1

81.4

82.5

83.8

85.1

86.5

87.6

88.7

90.1

91.8

93.1

Nonfarm

40.5

41.2

41.9

42.7

43.2

43.8

44.3

44.8

45.1

45.7

46.3

47.2

48.1

49.1

1.1

1.0

Property Income

201.2

202.5

204.2

206.6

209.2

212.4

216.4

220.2

225.2

228.2

230.8

234.4

238.3

244.2

Transfer Payments

Farm

152.1

153.0

153.7

154.3

155.6

156.4

157.6

158.7

160.3

162.0

163.4

164.7

171.0

172.2

Social Insurance

47.4

48.0

48.3

48.7

55.9

56.6

57.6

58.7

61.7

62.6

63.3

64.3

65.3

66.3

Personal Income

674.0

678.6

682.7

687.4

687.7

694.2

700.4

707.0

713.1

719.3

725.3

732.0

743.1

751.1

Wages & Salaries

294.8

298.1

300.2

302.9

306.0

309.2

312.1

315.1

318.2

321.3

324.6

327.8

330.9

333.8

Other Labor Income

69.1

69.9

70.3

71.2

72.0

72.7

73.6

74.5

75.1

75.8

76.6

77.7

78.4

Nonfarm

35.9

36.5

36.9

37.5

37.7

38.2

38.4

38.8

39.2

39.6

40.1

40.7

41.3

Billions 2000 $

Farm

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.9

Property Income

178.5

179.2

180.0

181.4

182.9

185.2

187.8

190.4

194.0

195.8

197.2

199.4

201.7

205.6

Transfer Payments

135.0

135.4

135.5

135.4

136.1

136.4

136.8

137.2

138.1

139.0

139.6

140.1

144.7

145.0

42.1

42.5

42.8

48.8

49.4

50.0

50.8

53.1

53.7

54.1

54.7

55.3

55.8

Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations Retail Sales (Billions $) Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

1017.38 1017.56 1070.95 1141.45 1215.14 1262.35 1292.22 1335.10 1382.08 1427.17 1450.19 1463.87 1499.54 1519.74 265.5

267.9

271.0

276.0

279.7

283.4

287.7

291.8

295.3

299.3

302.7

306.0

310.0

314.2

235.6

237.0

238.9

242.2

244.6

247.1

249.7

252.3

254.4

256.7

258.6

260.3

262.4

264.6

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s

Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Personal Income

582.8

633.2

690.3

720.5

737.9

720.9

Wages & Salaries

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

738.2

771.0

801.8

844.0

899.7

Billions Current Dollars 285.6

310.3

333.1

344.6

340.9

323.5

326.9

338.7

357.1

377.3

398.9

Other Labor Income

63.3

69.5

72.9

73.1

73.6

73.9

75.8

78.8

83.2

88.2

93.7

Nonfarm

39.6

42.0

45.1

43.1

40.8

38.2

39.4

41.6

44.0

46.1

49.3

Farm

1.0

1.5

1.2

0.9

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.0

142.7

156.4

181.7

196.5

208.3

194.2

194.8

203.7

214.5

229.6

248.2

Transfer Payments

91.3

98.1

104.4

111.2

122.5

137.9

149.1

153.3

157.1

162.6

173.0

Social Insurance

42.3

46.2

49.9

50.9

50.8

49.4

50.6

48.1

57.2

63.0

66.7

Property Income

Billions 2000 $

Personal Income

600.1

633.1

671.8

682.5

676.7

659.9

664.3

680.7

697.3

722.4

756.2

Wages & Salaries

294.1

310.3

324.2

326.5

312.7

296.1

294.2

299.0

310.6

323.0

335.3

Other Labor Income

65.2

69.5

71.0

69.3

67.5

67.7

68.2

69.6

72.3

75.5

78.7

Nonfarm

40.7

42.0

43.9

40.9

37.4

35.0

35.5

36.7

38.3

39.4

41.5

1.0

1.5

1.2

0.8

0.6

0.8

0.9

0.8

0.9

Farm Property Income

146.9

156.3

176.8

186.1

191.0

177.7

175.3

179.8

186.6

196.6

208.6

Transfer Payments

94.0

98.1

101.6

105.4

112.3

126.2

134.1

135.3

136.6

139.2

145.4

Social Insurance

43.6

46.2

48.6

48.3

46.6

45.2

45.5

42.5

49.8

53.9

56.0

1442.73

1449.69

1416.66

1242.20

951.97

694.09

849.27

1061.83

1276.20

1430.83

1517.63

Retail Sales (Billions $)

223.4

241.6

257.9

262.3

256.9

238.1

252.1

270.1

285.7

300.8

316.1

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

230.0

241.6

251.0

248.5

235.5

217.9

226.9

238.4

248.4

257.5

265.7

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Personal Income 12% 10% 8% 7% 5% 3% 1% -0% -2% -4%

(% change year ago)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Florida Real Gross State Product 8%

(% change year ago)

6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate

Florida Construction Employment (Thousands)

700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Manufacturing Employment 500.0

(Thousands)

450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0 250.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment 1650.0

(Thousands)

1600.0 1550.0 1500.0 1450.0 1400.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Financial Activities Employment (Thousands)

560.0 540.0 520.0 500.0 480.0 460.0 440.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Florida Professional & Business Services Employment (Thousands)

1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Education & Health Services Employment 1200.0 1150.0 1100.0 1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0 750.0

(Thousands)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Florida Information Employment 190.0

(Thousands)

180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Gross State Product 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

(% change year ago)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL Gross State Product

Florida Employment 8200.0 8000.0 7800.0 7600.0 7400.0 7200.0 7000.0 6800.0 6600.0

(Thousands)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Wage & Salary Employment

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Leisure & Hospitality Employment 1000.0

(Thousands)

950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Florida Federal Government Employment 160.0

(Thousands)

150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Florida State & Local Government Employment 1000.0

(Thousands)

950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Housing Starts (thousands)

300.0 250.0

200.0

150.0

100.0

50.0 0.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Total Private Housing Starts 30 year Mortgage Rates

New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations (% change year ago)

60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Florida Consumer Price Index (% change year ago)

6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL CPI

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

F l o r i d a Ne w s Su m m a r ie s GrowFL helps create 400+ jobs in 1st year

• The Florida Economic Gardening Institute, a state funded program, has contributed to the creation of 400+ jobs during its first year of operation. • The Institute was created by the Florida Legislature in 2009. The Legislature allocated $1.4M for its initial investment, and the Institute will be given another $2 million for its second year. Source: South Florida Business Journal, January 6, 2011

UF: Florida Hospitals generate 730,000 jobs

• A University of Florida economic study has estimated that the Florida Hospital Association is responsible for creating 739,078 jobs and $54 billion in economic contributions (7.34% of the State’s GDP).

• These hospitals, which care for over 20.8 million patients annually, are asking for a $10 million Medicaid grant to add an additional 228 high-paying jobs, equaling $15.7 million in economic impact. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, January 24, 2011

Florida tops list of decreasing affordable housing

• The Center for Housing Policy’s annual report informed the public that the number of working households spending more than half of their income on housing rose by nearly 600,000 nationally in one year’s time.

• Florida has two of the top five metropolitan areas with the highest share of working households with a home cost load. These include Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach and Orlando-Kissimmee. Source: Naples News, February 26, 2011

Citrus Prediction for Next Decade Brighter

• Officials of the Florida Department of Citrus announced that production appears to be brighter because of scientific advances against citrus greening disease.

• Florida’s orange juice is the state’s largest citrus commodity. The orange juice and grapefruit juice markets are expected to grow substantially through the 2020-2021 season. • The Marketing Department of the Citrus Department is not trying to increase demand since it increases the threat of imports, especially from China. China announced an objective of becoming a major orange juice exporter. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, March 16, 2011

State OKs teacher merit pay

• Governor Rick Scott will approve his first bill, after the Florida Legislature voted 80-39 to pass it. Teachers’ salaries will now reflect student test scores.

• Union members complain that this bill attacks their right to collectively bargain their salaries and benefits. But supporters of this bill said it should be welcomed by teachers because it rewards hard work. • Newly hired teachers will be exempted from tenure. Their score will be based on mainly test scores. Democrats say that the bill will be hard to enforce and execute with recent budget cuts. There may be no way to reward teachers with merit pay increases. Source: Pensacola News Journal, March 17, 2011

SunRail demise would cost millions

• If Florida Governor Rick Scott chooses to shut down the SunRail project, more than $70 million of taxpayer dollars will be wasted. To proceed with the plans would cost an estimated $1.2 billion.

• There would be 4,200 jobs lost, as well as other opportunities, such as the impact on the Creative Village, if the project were to be cancelled. Florida Hospital’s health village would also suffer. • Scott plans to put plans on hold until July. He would like to review the project’s cost and financial implications. Source: Orlando Business Journal, March 21, 2011

Scott approves partial bailout for Florida courts

• Jerry McDaniel, Governor Scott’s budget director, told the Supreme Court Justices that the government would award the requested $14M of earmarked funds for mediation arbitration.

• The Governor has requested a detailed report on factors leading to the deficit and those ways the Judicial Branch will reduce and/or deplete current costs. • Most of the funds were coming from the mortgage foreclosure filing fees, which dropped off in late December from an average of 30,000 per month to 8,205 in February. Source: Miami Herald, March 22, 2011

Education funding cuts are grim, schools remain hopeful • The Florida Legislature current budget draft suggests cutting funding for schools. Lawmakers are suggesting decreases of 6% per student, translating to $400 budget decrease per child. Gov. Scott suggested a 10% cut. • One major reason for reduction is the depleted federal stimulus money to improve public education.

• The budget is far from being finished. School officials have asked the Legislature to consider other school activities such as extra-curriculars, special education programs, teacher training and more. Source: The St. Augustine Record, March 23, 2011

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Met r o s

A p r i l 2 0 11

F l o r i d a F OR E C A S T

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

P r o fi l e s The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is comprised only of Volusia County. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway, which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500. Quick Facts:

• Metro population estimate of 494,593 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 252,490 in February 2011 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 11.5% as of February 2011, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 29,011 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• Volusia County Schools – 8,273 employees • Halifax Health – 4,232 employees

• Florida Hospital (All divisions) – 3,717 employees • Volusia County Government – 3,519 employees • State of Florida – 2,423 employees • Publix – 2,415 employees

• Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – 2,139 employees

• Daytona State College – 4,589 employees • U.S. Government – 1,434 employees

• Embry Riddle Aeronautical University – 1,198 employees

Source: Department of Economic Development, Volusia County

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is expected to show modest growth in most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast. Personal income is expected to average 5.0 percent growth, while the per capita income level will be 31.7. Average annual wage will be the lowest level of the studied areas at 39.3. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.6 percent. Population growth will be the lowest of the studied metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) at 0.6 percent. Gross Metro Product will also be one of the lowest at 13,744.88 (Mill). The employment growth rate is expected to average 1.9 percent each year. Unemployment will average 10.5 percent annually.

The Deltona MSA will experience the most growth in the Construction and Mining sector, with an average growth rate of 5.1 percent annually. The Professional and Business Services sector will see the second highest growth in the MSA, at 4.6 percent annually. The Manufacturing sector follows with an annual growth rate of 2.4 percent. The State and Local Government and Federal Government sectors will experience a decline of -0.1 and -4.8 percent, respectively.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Daytona working on Development Code Overhaul • The City Planning entity of Daytona is refurbishing its rules. The work is predicted to be completed by the end of summer. • Anything from solar panels to marina construction will have a new set of rules. The cost for consultants to rewrite the code is projected to be $244,000. • The consultants will hold meetings to receive feedback and have set up a website to communicate any ideas. They plan to make the code more readable and understandable using devices like flowcharts and diagrams. Source: The Daytona Beach News-Journal, January 31, 2011 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

8,500-home project OK’d near Edgewater • The proposed 8,500 home project known as Restoration was finally approved this February. The development will be east of I-95. • After five years of planning, the City’s proposal includes three million-sq. feet of commercial space. The project will take an estimated fifteen years to complete. • Community members warned officials of potential problems such as sprawl, water-use, and wetland destruction. Source: The Daytona Beach News-Journal, February 23, 2011 Scott wants $44M Volusia School cut • Under Governor Scott’s proposed budget cuts, Volusia County Schools would lose $44.5 million in funding, resulting in 936 job cuts. This is dependent on whether the Florida Legislature approves his plan. • Some lawmakers are predicting that the schools’ funding will be cut, but not this drastically. • The superintendent is encouraging parents and community members to protest Scott’s proposed plan. The school is currently bettering their own fiscal policy. Source: The Daytona Beach News-Journal, March 3, 2011 Central Florida fire crews begin heading home • Firefighters have spent days fighting a 17,000acre forest fire in Central Florida. The Florida Division of Forestry began releasing firefighters on March 8. • 190 state workers battled the wildfire, which has now been 100% contained. They battled high winds, but had the humidity on their side.

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

• The fire shut down I-95 temporarily, but only damaged one home. Source: Miami Herald, March 9, 2011 Daytona incubator gets first client • The University of Central Florida’s Incubation Program and Innovation-Research Engineering and Development are teaming up to develop wind turbine electrical generation technology. • The team will be the first client business at the Daytona Beach International Airport. • The Incubation Program was started in 1999. It has assisted over 160 small businesses, including the 100 it currently serves. Source: Orlando Business Journal, March 18, 2011

De l t o n a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Da y t o n a B each â&#x20AC;&#x201C; O r m o n d B each Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

1.2

1.4

1.6

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product 15000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

13000.0 12000.0 11000.0 10000.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate

9000.0

Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment 175.0 170.0 165.0 160.0 155.0 150.0 145.0 140.0

14000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.8

(Thousands)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Deltona Payroll Employment

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Gross Metro Product

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income 15.0% 12.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% -3.0% -6.0%

(percent change year ago)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

March 2011

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

13.4 9.6 5.1 8.3 13.8 6.8 28 28.8 31 4.1

14.3 6.3 5.5 8.8 14.3 3.2 29.1 29.1 32 3.4

15.3 7.3 5.9 9.3 14.9 4.4 30.7 29.9 34 6.1

16.1 5.1 6.1 10 15.2 2.3 32 30.3 35.3 3.7

16.4 2.2 6 10.4 15.1 -1 32.8 30.1 35.9 1.8

16.1 -1.7 5.7 10.5 14.8 -1.9 32.3 29.6 35.9 0

16.5 2.3 5.7 10.8 14.9 0.5 33.1 29.8 36.4 1.5

17.2 4.4 5.8 11.4 15.2 2.5 34.6 30.5 37.6 3.2

17.9 4 6.1 11.8 15.6 2.4 35.8 31.2 38.8 3.1

18.8 5 6.5 12.3 16.1 3.3 37.3 31.9 39.9 2.7

20 6.4 6.8 13.2 16.8 4.5 39.2 33 40.9 2.6

21.4 6.7 7.2 14.2 17.7 4.9 41.2 34.1 42 2.7

166.9 -3.3 9.1 -12.2 157.8 -2.7 11.3 -20.2 32.5 -3.3 5.2 24.9 2.4 2.6 3.6 7.7 -4.1 17.4 -3.2 31.9 4.2 22.5 -0.2 8.2 1 1.4 0 22.2 -4

157.4 -5.7 7.8 -13.9 149.6 -5.2 8.8 -22.2 30.1 -7.2 4.9 23.2 2.1 2.3 -11.9 7.1 -7.8 17.5 0.2 31.5 -1.1 21.2 -5.8 8.5 3.1 1.4 2.4 21.1 -5

154.7 -1.7 7.4 -4.8 147.2 -1.5 7.7 -12.9 30 -0.4 4.7 23.4 1.9 2 -10.8 7.1 -0.5 16.8 -3.7 31.5 0.1 21.5 1.5 8.4 -1 1.5 6.2 20.6 -2.3

154 -0.4 7.4 -0.4 146.6 -0.4 7.2 -6.2 30.1 0.3 4.8 23.3 1.9 2 -3.1 7 -1 16.7 -0.9 31.8 0.7 22.2 3.2 8.4 -0.4 1.3 -14.6 20 -3

157.5 2.2 7.7 3.8 149.8 2.2 7.4 2.1 31 2.8 5 23.8 2 2.1 5.2 7.2 2.9 17.4 4.2 32.4 2 22.7 2.4 8.5 1.4 1.3 -1.4 19.9 -0.5

161.9 2.8 8 4.3 153.9 2.7 8.2 11.1 31.9 3.1 5.2 24.4 2.1 2.1 2.8 7.3 1.8 18.5 6.8 32.8 1.3 23 1 8.6 1.2 1.3 -1.6 20.2 1.3

166.4 2.8 8.2 1.9 158.2 2.8 9.3 13.3 32.5 1.9 5.4 24.7 2.2 2.2 2.2 7.4 1 20 8.1 33.3 1.6 23 0.2 8.7 0.9 1.2 -1.4 20.6 1.9

170.3 2.4 8.2 0.7 162.1 2.4 10.1 9.3 33 1.6 5.5 24.9 2.3 2.3 4.2 7.4 0.4 21.4 6.8 34 2 23.1 0.3 8.7 0.8 1.2 -0.5 20.8 1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

164.4 4.3 9.8 3.9 154.6 4.4 12.9 12.8 32 1.7 4.7 25 2.3 2.3 -2.5 6.9 7.2 18.1 10.4 30.7 1.9 21.1 5.3 8.2 4 1.4 0 21.1 2

170.8 3.9 10.2 4.3 160.6 3.9 14.8 14.5 33.2 3.7 4.8 26 2.4 2.2 -3.2 7.3 5.5 19.6 8.1 30.5 -0.7 21.7 2.9 8.2 0.1 1.4 1.2 21.8 3.5

173.9 1.8 10.6 3.9 163.3 1.6 15.9 7.3 33.2 0 5 25.9 2.4 2.4 8.3 7.9 7.2 19.4 -0.9 30.5 0.2 21.6 -0.4 8.3 1.2 1.4 -0.6 22.8 4.4

172.5 -0.8 10.3 -2.6 162.2 -0.7 14.2 -10.3 33.6 1.2 5.3 25.8 2.5 2.5 5.2 8 2.2 18 -7.1 30.6 0.2 22.6 4.6 8.1 -1.7 1.4 -0.6 23.1 1.5

12413.5 13223.4 13707.5 13749.1 13302.3 12703.9 12859.5 13046.1 13466.4 13959.7 14507.3 14967.6 479.7 489.3 497.5 501.6 501 499.9 498.7 498.5 500.5 504.7 510.9 518.6 2.3 2 1.7 0.8 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.5 232.7 242.7 247.6 251.1 254.2 253.9 254.2 265.6 288.2 308.4 325.6 341.2 2.6 4.3 2 1.4 1.2 -0.1 0.1 4.5 8.5 7 5.6 4.8 4.5 3.6 3.2 4 6.5 11 12.4 11.8 11 10.1 8.9 8.1 6168 6349 4114 2204 1361 723 739 904 2225 3580 4309 4687 4777 5118 3100 1585 1035 663 674 816 1992 3117 3577 3798 1391 1231 1014 619 326 60 65 88 233 463 732 889

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

March 2011

2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

17 4 5.7 11.3 15.1 2.3 34.1 30.2 37.1 3.1

17.1 4 5.8 11.3 15.2 2.1 34.4 30.4 37.5 3.3

17.3 4.9 5.9 11.5 15.3 2.7 34.8 30.6 37.8 3.3

17.5 4.8 5.9 11.6 15.4 2.7 35.1 30.8 38.1 3.3

17.6 3.5 6 11.6 15.4 2 35.2 30.8 38.4 3.6

17.8 3.9 6.1 11.7 15.5 2.3 35.6 31.1 38.7 3.1

18.1 4.1 6.2 11.9 15.7 2.6 36 31.3 38.9 2.9

18.3 4.3 6.3 12 15.8 2.8 36.4 31.5 39.2 2.8

18.5 5.2 6.4 12.1 15.9 3.6 36.8 31.7 39.5 2.8

18.7 5 6.4 12.3 16 3.3 37.1 31.8 39.7 2.8

18.9 4.9 6.5 12.4 16.2 3.2 37.5 32 40 2.7

19.2 4.9 6.6 12.5 16.3 3.2 37.8 32.2 40.2 2.7

19.6 5.8 6.7 12.9 16.6 4 38.5 32.6 40.5 2.6

19.9 6.2 6.8 13.1 16.7 4.3 38.9 32.8 40.8 2.6

155.8 1.7 7.6 2.9 148.3 1.7 7.2 -1.2 30.6 1.9 4.9 23.5 2 2.1 5.1 7.1 2.4 17.1 3.3 32.2 2.3 22.5 2.2 8.4 1.8 1.3 -0.7 19.9 -1

156.9 2.2 7.7 3.5 149.3 2.1 7.3 0.6 30.9 2.8 5 23.7 2 2.1 5.8 7.2 2.8 17.2 4.1 32.3 2.3 22.7 2.4 8.5 1.4 1.3 -1.5 19.9 -0.8

158 2.5 7.7 4.1 150.3 2.4 7.4 3.1 31.1 3.3 5 23.9 2.1 2.1 4.9 7.2 3.2 17.5 4.4 32.5 1.9 22.8 2.6 8.5 1.4 1.3 -1.6 19.9 -0.3

159.1 2.7 7.8 4.7 151.3 2.6 7.6 6.2 31.4 3.4 5.1 24 2.1 2.1 4.9 7.3 3.1 17.7 4.9 32.6 1.6 22.9 2.3 8.5 1.2 1.3 -1.7 20 0.2

160.1 2.7 7.9 5 152.1 2.6 7.8 9 31.6 3.3 5.1 24.2 2.1 2.1 4.3 7.3 2.6 18 5.6 32.6 1.3 22.9 1.6 8.6 1.3 1.3 -1.6 20 0.6

161.3 2.8 8 4.7 153.3 2.7 8 10.4 31.8 3.1 5.2 24.4 2.1 2.1 3.2 7.3 2 18.3 6.4 32.8 1.4 22.9 1 8.6 1.4 1.3 -1.6 20.1 1.1

162.5 2.9 8 4 154.5 2.8 8.3 11.8 32.1 3.1 5.2 24.5 2.2 2.1 2.7 7.3 1.4 18.7 7.2 32.9 1.3 23 0.6 8.6 1.3 1.3 -1.7 20.2 1.6

163.7 2.9 8.1 3.4 155.6 2.9 8.6 13.1 32.2 2.7 5.3 24.6 2.2 2.2 1.4 7.4 1.3 19.1 7.8 33 1.2 23 0.6 8.6 1.1 1.3 -1.7 20.4 2

164.9 3 8.1 2.6 156.8 3.1 8.9 13.9 32.4 2.5 5.3 24.7 2.2 2.2 1.4 7.4 1.1 19.5 8.1 33.2 1.8 23 0.4 8.6 0.9 1.3 -1.6 20.4 2.2

166 2.9 8.2 1.9 157.8 2.9 9.2 13.8 32.5 2 5.4 24.7 2.2 2.2 2.2 7.4 1.1 19.9 8.5 33.3 1.6 23 0.2 8.7 1 1.2 -1.5 20.5 2.1

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

153.2 -1.6 7.3 -2.9 145.9 -1.6 7.3 -10 30 0 4.7 23.4 1.9 2 -8.3 6.9 -2.7 16.5 -3.1 31.4 -1.4 22.1 4.2 8.3 -1.3 1.3 -10.5 20.1 -3.8

153.6 -1.1 7.4 -0.4 146.2 -1.1 7.2 -8.5 30 -0.3 4.7 23.3 1.9 2 -4 7 -2.2 16.5 -2.2 31.6 0.6 22.2 3.2 8.3 -0.1 1.3 -28.1 20.1 -2.9

154.2 0.4 7.4 0.6 146.8 0.4 7.2 -4.4 30.1 0.4 4.8 23.2 1.9 2 -0.2 7 -0.1 16.7 0.7 31.8 1.6 22.2 4.1 8.4 0.2 1.3 -12.8 20 -2.6

155 0.6 7.5 1.2 147.5 0.5 7.1 -1.6 30.3 1.1 4.9 23.3 2 2 0.6 7.1 0.9 16.9 1.3 32.1 1.8 22.4 1.3 8.4 -0.6 1.3 -2.6 19.9 -2.6

12899.8 12996.5 13086.5 13201.8 13279.6 13395.1 13522.2 13668.6 13753.1 13894.5 14033.2 14157.9 14317.8 14454.5 498.4 498.4 498.4 498.7 499.2 500 500.8 501.8 502.7 503.9 505.3 506.8 508.4 510.1 -0.1 -0.1 0 0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 257.2 262.5 268.3 274.4 280.1 285.6 291.1 296.2 301.1 306.2 310.8 315.3 319.5 323.6 0.8 3.3 5.8 8.1 8.9 8.8 8.5 7.9 7.5 7.2 6.8 6.5 6.1 5.7 11.8 11.9 11.8 11.5 11.3 11 10.9 10.7 10.6 10.3 10 9.6 9.3 9.1 569 767 997 1283 1602 1984 2484 2830 3173 3491 3727 3931 4082 4250 504 690 906 1165 1452 1781 2228 2507 2791 3062 3246 3369 3438 3546 65 78 91 118 150 203 256 322 382 429 481 562 644 703

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Gai n e s v i l l e

P r o fi l e s The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist counties and is located in the northcentral portion of the state. This metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history museum. Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 264,275 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Alachua County population estimate of 247,336 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Gilchrist County population estimate of 16,939 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 138,841 in February 2011 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 7.8% as of February 2011, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 10,881 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• University of Florida – 14,723 employees • Shands Hospital – 12,588 employees

• Veterans Affairs Medical Center – 4,317 employees • Alachua County School Board – 4,299 employees • City of Gainesville – 2,200 employees

• Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 2,056 employees

• North Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,700 employees

• Nationwide Insurance Company – 1,300 employees

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Gainesville MSA is expected to show modest growth in all of the economic indicators measured in this forecast. Personal income will see a 4.5% growth while per capita income level is expected to average 33.6. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.0 percent, while the average annual wage level will be at 45.1. Population growth will average 0.8 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be the second lowest at a level of 9,480.43(Mill). Gainesville will see an employment growth rate of 1.4 percent annually. The Gainesville MSA will maintain the lowest unemployment rate, at 7.1 percent. The fastest growing sector in the area will be the Professional and Business Services sector, with an average growth rate of 5.6 percent annually. This is followed by the Construction and Mining sector with an average annual growth rate of 4.4 percent. The State and Local Government and Federal Government sectors will experience a decline, with annual growth rates of -0.2 and -2.7 percent, respectively.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Work on Stadium Club to resume; University Corners on hold • Work on the Stadium Club, an eight-story condominium project right across from the University of Florida’s football stadium, is set to resume after months of delay. The Stadium Club is targeted to wealthy Gator fans. • However, University Corners, another development project, has been left on hold as the developers wait for financial markets to improve.

• Alachua County Government – 1,120 employees

Source: Ocala Star Banner, January 6, 2010

Source: University of Florida and Gainesville Council for Economic Outreach

Sinmat receives $2.4 million grant for research

• Santa Fe Community College - 796 employees

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

• Sinmat Inc, based in Gainesville, has received $2.4 million for research on smoothing superhard surfaces that are needed for the next generation of semiconductor chips.

Gai n e s v i l l e

• The company received the grant from the National Institute of Standards and Technology as part of a $22 million program to increase U.S. competitiveness in growing manufacturing sectors. • According to the company, the research done with this grant could help create a $1 billion market for these materials. Source: The Gainesville Sun, January 7, 2011 County purchases two buildings for community center, health clinic

Two more credit unions join area • SunState Federal Credit Union and Campus USA Credit Union have opened new branches in the Gainesville area. • Campus USA is building its fourteenth branch in Alachua and SunState opened its ninth branch in the area. • Since SunState relocated, it has conducted around 1,000 additional transactions a month at the new location. Source: The Gainesville Sun, March 2, 2011

• Alachua County purchased two buildings in the “Tower Triangle” area for $130,000 to build a community resource center and an Alachua County Health Department Clinic. • The area is known for high crime and poverty rates. • The buildings need an additional projected $192,000 to $256,000 in renovations, which the county hopes to finance through grants and the remainder of the $225,000 it set aside last summer for the purchase and renovation of the property. Source: The Gainesville Sun, January 11, 2011 RTI founders spin off thriving biotech firms in Gainesville area • Xhale Innovations Inc. and AxoGen Inc., two second-generation companies started by the founders of Regeneration Technologies Inc., have seen success in the biotechnology industry which has grown in the North Central Florida region. • The industry employs about 2,000 people in the region, with 725 of those people working for RTI. • RTI’s revenues were around $162 million last year. Source: The Gainesville Sun, February 19, 2011 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Gai n e s v i l l e Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate 12.0% 10.0%

(percent)

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate

135.0 130.0 125.0 120.0 115.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Gainesville Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

2.5

Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product 10500.0 10000.0 9500.0 9000.0 8500.0 8000.0 7500.0 7000.0 6500.0

Gainesville Payroll Employment (Thousands)

1.5

(Millions 2000 $)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Gross Metro Product

Gainesville Real Personal Income 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Personal Income

Gai n e s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

March 2011

Personal Income (Billions $)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

7.1 13 4.3 2.8 7.3 10.1 29 29.9 33.4 11.8

7.7 8.2 4.6 3.1 7.7 5.1 30.8 30.8 35.2 5.2

8.3 7.9 4.9 3.4 8.1 5 32.5 31.7 36.9 5.1

8.8 5.9 5.1 3.7 8.3 3.1 34 32.2 38.2 3.4

9.1 3 5.2 3.9 8.3 -0.3 34.7 31.8 38.8 1.6

9.1 0.5 5.2 3.9 8.3 0.3 34.7 31.7 40.4 4.1

9.4 3.3 5.3 4.1 8.5 1.6 35.7 32.1 41.8 3.4

9.8 4.4 5.5 4.3 8.7 2.4 37.2 32.8 43.2 3.3

10.2 3.6 5.8 4.4 8.9 2 38.3 33.3 44.5 3.2

10.7 4.6 6 4.6 9.1 2.7 39.6 33.8 45.8 2.8

11.2 5.5 6.3 4.9 9.4 3.3 41.3 34.5 47 2.7

11.9 5.8 6.6 5.3 9.7 3.7 43.2 35.4 48.4 2.8

133.8 1.9 4.9 2.1 128.9 1.9 5.1 11.3 19.2 1.4 2.7 13.8 2.6 1.7 1.3 6.5 0.7 12.8 7.8 23.4 1.2 13.7 0 4.6 0.5 4.2 -2.1 37.7 1.1

136 1.6 5 1.1 131 1.6 5.5 8.9 19.4 1.2 2.8 13.9 2.7 1.7 3.6 6.5 0.5 13.7 7 23.7 1.5 13.7 0.1 4.6 0.3 4.2 -1.2 37.9 0.4

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

128.6 1.8 5.2 -1.6 123.4 1.9 5.8 11.7 18.2 0.4 2.6 13.2 2.4 2.1 6.1 6.2 -0.7 10.3 9.8 21 3 12.9 7.5 4.7 3.3 3.4 3.7 38.8 -2.8

130.2 1.2 5.1 -0.1 125 1.3 6.2 6.3 18.9 3.5 2.7 13.8 2.4 2 -5.8 6.2 1 10.9 6.1 21.4 2.1 13.7 5.9 4.5 -3 3.7 5.9 37.6 -3.3

132.3 1.6 5.7 11 126.6 1.3 6.5 5.3 19.5 3.3 2.7 14.1 2.6 2 -2.9 6.5 4 11.1 1.4 21.4 0.1 13.4 -2 4.7 2.6 3.7 2.1 37.9 0.9

134.2 1.4 5.8 2 128.3 1.4 6.5 0.9 20.2 4 2.8 14.9 2.6 2 2.6 6.4 -0.5 10.6 -4.4 21.3 -0.6 14 4.1 4.8 3.7 3.8 3.1 38.6 1.8

133.5 -0.5 5.6 -4.3 127.9 -0.3 5.7 -13.2 19.7 -2.8 2.8 14.2 2.7 1.9 -7 6.2 -3.3 10.7 1.8 21.9 2.9 14.5 3.7 4.8 -0.5 4 5.2 38.5 -0.3

127.6 -4.4 4.7 -16 122.9 -3.9 4.6 -18.3 18.3 -7 2.6 13.3 2.4 1.6 -13.8 6 -3.6 10.3 -3.9 22 0.2 13.4 -7.2 4.5 -6.1 4.3 5.3 37.9 -1.6

126.7 -0.7 4.4 -5.2 122.3 -0.5 4.3 -7.5 17.9 -2.2 2.5 13.1 2.3 1.5 -6.6 6.1 1.2 10.3 -0.1 22.1 0.7 12.9 -3.9 4.4 -3.1 4.7 10.6 38.1 0.5

127.1 0.3 4.4 0.1 122.7 0.3 4.1 -5.1 18 0.7 2.5 13.2 2.3 1.5 1.3 6.1 1.3 10.7 3.9 22.5 1.8 13.3 2.6 4.5 2.2 4.5 -4.1 37.4 -1.8

128.8 1.3 4.6 4.2 124.2 1.2 4.1 1.6 18.5 2.5 2.6 13.4 2.5 1.6 5 6.3 3 11.2 4.4 22.9 1.7 13.6 2.4 4.5 1.1 4.4 -2.3 37 -1

131.3 1.9 4.8 4.4 126.5 1.8 4.5 9.9 19 2.6 2.7 13.7 2.6 1.6 2.8 6.4 1.4 11.9 6.3 23.1 1 13.7 1 4.6 0.7 4.3 -2.4 37.3 0.8

8154.4 245.6 1.3 126.5 0.4 3.4 1835 1377 458

8317.8 250.1 1.8 130 2.7 2.9 2219 1455 764

8597.9 255.5 2.2 132.2 1.7 2.7 1877 1155 721

8917.7 259.1 1.4 135.9 2.8 3 1366 763 603

8906.6 261.4 0.9 138.9 2.2 4.3 1057 516 541

8635.4 263 0.6 138.5 -0.3 7.2 482 363 119

8858.3 263.7 0.2 140.3 1.3 8.4 476 363 112

9072.7 264.5 0.3 140.5 0.1 8.3 469 364 105

9326.9 266 0.6 141.4 0.6 7.5 762 615 147

9602.2 268.8 1 142.5 0.8 6.6 1105 851 254

9919.9 10211.9 272.1 275.6 1.2 1.3 143.5 144.6 0.7 0.7 5.9 5.4 1351 1488 968 1018 382 471

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Gai n e s v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL

March 2011

2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

9.7 4 5.4 4.3 8.6 2.4 36.7 32.6 42.5 3.1

9.8 3.9 5.5 4.3 8.7 2 37 32.8 43 3.4

9.9 4.7 5.5 4.3 8.7 2.6 37.3 32.9 43.4 3.4

10 4.9 5.6 4.4 8.8 2.8 37.7 33.1 43.7 3.3

10 3.5 5.7 4.4 8.8 1.9 37.8 33 44.1 3.7

10.1 3.5 5.7 4.4 8.8 1.9 38.1 33.2 44.4 3.1

10.2 3.6 5.8 4.4 8.9 1.9 38.5 33.4 44.7 3

10.4 3.8 5.9 4.5 8.9 2.1 38.8 33.5 45 2.9

10.5 4.5 5.9 4.5 9 2.8 39.2 33.7 45.3 2.9

10.6 4.6 6 4.6 9.1 2.7 39.5 33.8 45.7 2.9

10.7 4.6 6.1 4.6 9.1 2.7 39.8 33.9 45.9 2.8

10.8 4.6 6.1 4.7 9.2 2.7 40.1 34 46.2 2.7

11 5.2 6.2 4.8 9.3 3.1 40.7 34.3 46.6 2.7

11.2 5.3 6.3 4.9 9.4 3.2 41.1 34.4 46.9 2.7

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

126.8 -0.1 4.4 -0.8 122.4 0 4.1 -8 18 -0.5 2.5 13.3 2.3 1.5 -0.9 6.1 2 10.6 4.1 22.3 1.2 13.2 1.1 4.5 2.5 4.6 -1.5 37.7 -1.5

126.9 -0.3 4.4 -1.4 122.5 -0.3 4.1 -6.5 18 0.5 2.5 13.2 2.3 1.5 -0.8 6.1 1.2 10.6 4.4 22.5 1.6 13.2 2.1 4.5 2.2 4.5 -11.1 37.5 -2.1

127.2 0.5 4.5 1.5 122.7 0.5 4.1 -3.7 18 0.9 2.5 13.2 2.4 1.5 1 6.2 1.4 10.8 3 22.6 1.9 13.3 3.7 4.5 2.3 4.5 -2 37.3 -1.9

127.5 1 4.5 1.1 123 1 4 -1.9 18.2 2 2.5 13.2 2.4 1.6 5.9 6.2 0.7 10.9 3.9 22.7 2.2 13.3 3.6 4.5 1.8 4.5 -0.8 37.1 -1.5

127.9 0.9 4.5 3.3 123.4 0.8 4 -1.7 18.3 1.5 2.5 13.3 2.4 1.6 4.8 6.3 2.5 11 4.3 22.8 2.1 13.5 2.4 4.5 1.5 4.5 -2.1 37.1 -1.6

128.5 1.2 4.6 3.9 123.9 1.1 4.1 0.2 18.4 2.5 2.6 13.4 2.4 1.6 5.7 6.3 3 11.1 4.5 22.9 1.9 13.6 2.4 4.5 1.1 4.4 -2.2 37 -1.3

129.1 1.5 4.7 4.4 124.4 1.4 4.2 2.5 18.6 2.9 2.6 13.5 2.5 1.6 4.8 6.4 3.4 11.2 4.3 22.9 1.6 13.6 2.5 4.5 1 4.4 -2.3 37 -0.8

129.7 1.7 4.7 5 125 1.6 4.2 5.5 18.7 3 2.6 13.6 2.5 1.6 4.7 6.4 3.2 11.4 4.6 23 1.3 13.6 2.1 4.5 0.8 4.4 -2.4 37 -0.3

130.2 1.8 4.8 5.3 125.4 1.7 4.4 8.2 18.8 2.8 2.6 13.6 2.5 1.6 4.2 6.4 2.5 11.6 5.3 23 1.1 13.7 1.5 4.6 0.8 4.4 -2.3 37.1 0.1

131 1.9 4.8 4.9 126.1 1.8 4.5 9.4 18.9 2.6 2.7 13.7 2.5 1.6 3.2 6.4 1.7 11.8 6 23.1 1.1 13.7 1 4.6 0.8 4.3 -2.4 37.2 0.6

131.7 2 4.9 4.2 126.8 1.9 4.6 10.4 19 2.6 2.7 13.8 2.6 1.6 2.6 6.4 0.8 12 6.7 23.2 1 13.7 0.7 4.6 0.7 4.3 -2.4 37.4 1.1

132.3 2 4.9 3.5 127.5 2 4.7 11.4 19.1 2.2 2.7 13.8 2.6 1.6 1.1 6.4 0.6 12.2 7.1 23.2 0.8 13.7 0.7 4.6 0.6 4.3 -2.4 37.5 1.4

133 2.1 4.9 2.7 128.1 2.1 4.9 11.8 19.2 2 2.7 13.8 2.6 1.7 0.8 6.4 0.5 12.5 7.5 23.3 1.4 13.7 0.4 4.6 0.4 4.3 -2.3 37.6 1.5

133.6 2 4.9 2.1 128.7 2 5 11.7 19.2 1.5 2.7 13.8 2.6 1.7 1.3 6.5 0.7 12.7 8.1 23.4 1.1 13.7 0 4.6 0.6 4.2 -2.2 37.7 1.4

8969.4 264.1 0.2 140.3 -0.3 8.5 408 307 101

9041.6 264.3 0.3 140.4 -0.4 8.4 441 346 94

9103.6 264.7 0.4 140.6 0.6 8.2 488 380 108

9176.1 264.9 0.4 140.7 0.6 8 538 422 116

9218.3 265.3 0.5 140.8 0.4 7.8 609 491 118

9284.8 265.7 0.5 141.2 0.6 7.6 696 567 129

9358.8 266.2 0.6 141.5 0.7 7.4 828 676 152

9445.6 266.8 0.7 141.8 0.8 7.2 914 725 189

9489.1 267.6 0.9 142 0.8 7 993 772 221

9567.2 268.3 1 142.3 0.8 6.7 1077 837 240

9642.9 269.2 1.1 142.6 0.8 6.5 1141 883 258

9709.7 270 1.2 143 0.8 6.3 1209 914 295

9802.9 270.8 1.2 143.1 0.8 6.2 1264 931 333

9885.7 271.6 1.2 143.3 0.7 6 1324 959 365

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

J ac k s o n v i l l e

Profiles The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport. Quick Facts:

• Metro population estimate of 1,345,596 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Baker County population estimate of 27,115 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Clay County population estimate of 190,865 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Duval County population estimate of 864,263 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Nassau County population estimate of 73,314 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• St. Johns County population estimate of 190,039 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 677,280 in February 2011 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• An unemployment rate of 10.6% as of February 2011, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 72,000 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• • • •

Naval Air Station Jacksonville – 25,245 employees Duval County Public Schools – 14,489 employees Naval Station Mayport – 10,000 employees City of Jacksonville Municipal Government – 8,828 employees • Baptist Health – 8,100 employees • Blue Cross & Blue Shield of Florida – 7,000 employees • Mayo Clinic – 5,000 employees • Citibank – 4,600 employees • CSX – 4,400 employees • Bank of America – 4,000 employees Source: The Cornerstone Regional Development Partnership

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Jacksonville MSA is expected to see strong growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income will see an average growth rate of 5.5 percent, while the per capita income level will be one of the highest at 38.0. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.1 percent. Average annual wage is expected to be among the highest, at a level of 50.5. Population growth will be moderate at an average annual rate of 1.4 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 59,040.85 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to be 2.5 percent annually. Unemployment will average 9.2 percent in the MSA. The fastest growing sector in the Jacksonville MSA will be Professional & Business Services, which will see an average annual growth rate of 5.5 percent. Following that sector is the Construction and Mining sector, with an annual growth rate of 4.9 percent, and then Trade, Transportation and Utilities with a 2.5 percent growth rate. The Federal Government sector will experience decline of -2.2 percent.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Hanjin terminal delayed 2.5 years to 2016 • The Jacksonville Port Authority has delayed the opening of the $300 million Hanjin Shipping Co. Ltd. terminal until April 2016. • According to JPA, the terminal is not economically feasible until after the dredging project that will allow the port to accommodate larger ships. A source of funding for the $500 million dredging project has not been identified. • Competing ports such as Savannah, Ga., and Charleston, S.C., are working to deepen their harbors to capture the same shipping business that Jaxport is seeking. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, January 24, 2011

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

J ac k s o n v i l l e

Jacksonville to profit from future defense programs • About $163 billion out of the $671 billion national defense budget for fiscal year 2012 is destined to local construction. • Among others, the Jacksonville Naval Air Station will receive $32 million for the continuation of its P-8 Poseidon training facility, expected to be complete in September; and the Air National Guard is expected to implement a $6.7 million security forces training center at Jacksonville International Airport. • Jacksonville’s military bases and defense contractors employ 46,000 workers, which makes them the area’s largest employer.

Southside’s synergy competes with Downtown • City task forces have created initiatives to bring the same dynamic and growing atmosphere from Southside to Downtown Jacksonville’s decreasing popularity. • According to the article, Southside has become a major business market, and its activity creates a “substitute” Downtown. • The Deerwood area properties have seen large activity. There is a waiting list of retailers who want to be at the St. Johns Town Center, close to the residential and retail activity. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, March 11, 2011

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, February 25, 2011 Scott’s proposed Medicaid cut could cost $85M locally Schools focus on key industries, despite drop in funding • The New Florida Initiative aims to boost Florida’s research and higher education in science, technology, engineering and math. • Due to the massive state budget deficit, the initiative’s funds dropped from $350 million annually until 2015, to $10 million annually. Future funding depends on the upcoming budget for higher education. • The University of North Florida expected to receive millions in funding but has received only $415,000. The funds will help the school secure its patents, improve its engineering program and work on a prosthetic development project in partnership with Florida State University. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, February 25, 2011

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

• Gov. Rick Scott’s proposed budget calls for 5 percent reductions in Medicaid which would translate to $85 million in losses for Northeast Florida hospitals. This makes up about 54 percent of the $157.4 million total revenue for regional hospitals in 2009. • For Shands Jacksonville, the reduction translates to $35 million, and it creates a $17 million loss at Baptist Medical Center Downtown. • These numbers are based on the current form on the budget. Many factors could affect the proposal to change Florida’s Medicaid program before it moves forward. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, March 18, 2011

J ac k s o n v i l l e Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

0.8

1.6

1.8

Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product 65000.0

6.0%

50000.0

4.0%

45000.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate

40000.0

Jacksonville Payroll Employment (Thousands)

640.0 620.0 600.0 580.0 560.0 540.0 520.0

1.4

(Millions 2000 $)

55000.0

8.0%

660.0

1.2

60000.0

10.0%

2.0%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Jacksonville Payroll Employment

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Gross Metro Product

Jacksonville Real Personal Income 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

J ac k s o n v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

March 2011

Personal Income (Billions $)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

41.8 8.5 23.9 17.9 43.1 5.8 34 35 39.5 4.2

45.6 9 25.6 20 45.6 5.9 36.2 36.2 40.8 3.1

50.3 10.2 27.9 22.3 48.9 7.2 39 38 43 5.5

52.7 4.9 29.1 23.6 50 2.1 40.2 38.1 44.4 3.1

53.9 2.2 28.9 25 49.4 -1.1 40.6 37.2 45 1.4

52.9 -1.8 27.6 25.3 48.4 -2 39.4 36.1 45.6 1.4

54.3 2.7 28 26.3 48.9 0.9 40.1 36.1 46.7 2.3

56.9 4.7 29.2 27.7 50.2 2.7 41.6 36.7 48.2 3.4

59.5 4.7 30.9 28.6 51.8 3.1 43 37.4 49.8 3.3

63 5.8 32.8 30.2 53.9 4.1 44.8 38.4 51.3 2.9

67.3 6.9 34.8 32.5 56.6 5 47.1 39.6 52.7 2.7

71.7 6.6 36.6 35.1 59.3 4.8 49.1 40.6 54.2 2.8

621.2 -2 31.9 -2 589.3 -2 43 -12.7 136.3 -2.1 28.6 75.4 32.2 10.2 0.7 59.7 -0.7 88 -6.7 81.7 4.9 67.3 2 26.6 -5.9 17.1 0.6 59.5 0.6

586.3 -5.6 28.7 -10 557.6 -5.4 32.8 -23.7 126.9 -6.9 26.7 69.5 30.7 10.3 1.2 55.7 -6.7 83.1 -5.5 83.7 2.5 64.7 -3.9 24 -9.6 17.5 2.3 58.8 -1.1

581 -0.9 26.9 -6.4 554.1 -0.6 28.5 -13.2 124.1 -2.2 25.5 69 29.6 10.2 -1.3 55.1 -1.1 85.6 3.1 85.3 1.9 64.5 -0.3 23.8 -0.8 18 2.8 58.9 0.1

584.5 0.6 27.1 0.8 557.4 0.6 26.8 -5.8 124.8 0.6 26 68.7 29.8 10.2 -0.1 55.2 0.2 87.2 1.8 87 2 66.1 2.4 23.8 -0.3 17.6 -2.5 58.7 -0.4

600.6 2.8 28 3.5 572.6 2.7 27.2 1.4 129.5 3.7 27.1 70.3 31.6 10.7 4.6 57 3.2 91.4 4.8 89.4 2.7 68 2.9 24 1 17.2 -2.1 58.3 -0.7

620.1 3.2 29.1 3.8 591 3.2 30.2 10.9 133.9 3.4 28 72.3 33.2 10.9 1.8 58.4 2.4 97.5 6.6 91.1 2 69.2 1.8 24.2 0.7 16.8 -2.2 58.9 1.1

640.7 3.3 29.6 1.8 611.1 3.4 34 12.9 136.9 2.3 28.7 73.3 34.5 11 0.8 59.3 1.6 106 8.7 93.2 2.3 70 1.1 24.3 0.5 16.5 -2 59.9 1.7

656.5 2.5 29.9 0.8 626.6 2.5 37.1 9 139.5 1.9 29.3 73.9 35.7 11.3 3.4 59.5 0.3 112 5.7 95.4 2.4 70.6 0.9 24.4 0.4 16.3 -1.1 60.4 0.8

52302 54840.7 55512.7 54444.1 53024.1 54407.5 55864.6 57799.6 60003.6 62495.6 1258.9 1288.9 1311.5 1328 1341.2 1354.9 1368 1383.7 1404.2 1430.1 2.3 2.4 1.8 1.3 1 1 1 1.1 1.5 1.8 630.3 651.4 671 686.6 686.3 689.5 718.1 772.9 823.9 871.2 3.7 3.3 3 2.3 -0.1 0.5 4.2 7.6 6.6 5.7 3.7 3.3 3.8 5.8 10.1 11.5 10.6 9.7 8.7 7.7 23815 16724 10495 7066 4488 3798 3669 7017 10451 12461 18638 12263 7488 5164 3466 3629 3291 5840 8394 9522 5177 4461 3008 1902 1022 168 378 1177 2057 2939

64440 1461.5 2.2 912.1 4.7 6.9 13633 10168 3465

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

578.5 2.8 33.3 -0.2 545.3 2.9 40.9 11.6 128.1 2.5 26.9 71.2 30.1 11.6 -6.4 58.4 1.4 82.5 -0.3 68 5 56.3 5.5 26.4 2.7 17.8 -1.3 55.4 3.3 49386.6 1230.8 2.4 607.5 1.4 4.6 17862 13851 4011

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

604 4.4 33.6 0.9 570.4 4.6 45.4 11 132.8 3.7 27.8 73.9 31.1 11.9 2.4 59.3 1.5 88.1 6.8 71.3 4.9 60.4 7.4 26.8 1.6 17.4 -2.2 57.1 3

625 3.5 33.3 -0.8 591.7 3.7 50.1 10.3 136.9 3.1 29.9 74.9 32.2 11.1 -6.8 59.9 1 95.4 8.3 74.5 4.5 62.2 2.9 27.6 3.2 16.9 -2.6 57.1 0

633.8 1.4 32.6 -2.2 601.3 1.6 49.2 -1.7 139.2 1.7 30.2 76.5 32.5 10.2 -8.5 60.1 0.5 94.3 -1.2 77.9 4.5 65.9 6 28.3 2.3 17 0.5 59.2 3.6

J ac k s o n v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

March 2011

2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

55.9 4.4 28.5 27.3 49.6 2.7 41 36.4 47.5 3.1

56.5 4.3 29 27.5 50 2.3 41.4 36.6 48.1 3.4

57.2 4.8 29.3 27.8 50.4 2.7 41.7 36.8 48.5 3.3

57.9 5.2 29.8 28.1 50.8 3 42.1 37 48.9 3.6

58.3 4.3 30.2 28 51 2.8 42.3 37 49.3 3.8

59.1 4.6 30.7 28.4 51.5 3 42.8 37.3 49.7 3.3

59.9 4.8 31.1 28.8 52 3.3 43.3 37.5 50 3.2

60.8 5 31.6 29.2 52.6 3.5 43.7 37.8 50.4 3

61.6 5.8 32.1 29.6 53.1 4.2 44.2 38 50.8 3

62.5 5.8 32.6 30 53.6 4.1 44.6 38.3 51.1 3

63.4 5.8 33.1 30.3 54.2 4.1 45.1 38.5 51.5 2.9

64.3 5.8 33.5 30.8 54.7 4.1 45.5 38.7 51.8 2.8

65.6 6.5 34.1 31.6 55.5 4.6 46.2 39.1 52.2 2.8

66.7 6.7 34.6 32.2 56.2 4.8 46.8 39.4 52.5 2.7

593.6 2.2 27.6 2.8 566.1 2.2 26.5 -2.2 127.6 3.1 26.8 69.4 31 10.6 5.1 56.2 2.3 89.8 4 88.5 2.8 67.3 2.6 24 1.3 17.4 -1.8 58.3 -1.2

598.2 2.7 27.9 3.2 570.3 2.7 26.9 -0.1 129 3.9 27 70.1 31.5 10.6 5.5 56.7 3 90.7 4.5 89.1 2.9 67.9 3 23.9 1 17.3 -2 58.2 -1.1

603 3 28.2 3.7 574.8 3 27.4 2.3 130.1 4 27.2 70.6 31.9 10.7 4.2 57.3 3.6 91.9 5.2 89.7 2.7 68.3 3.2 24 0.9 17.2 -2.2 58.3 -0.5

607.8 3.2 28.5 4.3 579.3 3.1 28 5.8 131.3 3.9 27.5 71.1 32.3 10.9 3.9 57.7 3.6 93.2 5.5 90.2 2.4 68.5 2.9 24.1 0.7 17.1 -2.3 58.3 0

612.2 3.1 28.8 4.4 583.4 3.1 28.8 8.6 132.3 3.7 27.7 71.6 32.6 10.9 3.1 58 3.3 94.6 5.4 90.3 2 68.9 2.4 24.1 0.7 17 -2.3 58.5 0.4

617.1 3.2 29.1 4.2 588 3.1 29.6 10.2 133.4 3.4 27.9 72.1 33 10.8 2.1 58.2 2.7 96.2 6 91 2.1 69.1 1.8 24.1 0.8 16.9 -2.3 58.7 0.9

622.8 3.3 29.2 3.6 593.6 3.3 30.6 11.7 134.5 3.4 28.2 72.6 33.4 10.9 1.7 58.5 2 98.5 7.1 91.4 2 69.3 1.5 24.2 0.8 16.8 -2.2 59 1.3

628.2 3.4 29.4 3.1 598.9 3.4 31.6 12.9 135.3 3 28.3 72.8 33.8 10.9 0.3 58.8 1.9 100.6 8 91.9 1.9 69.6 1.5 24.2 0.6 16.7 -2.1 59.3 1.7

633.6 3.5 29.5 2.3 604.1 3.6 32.7 13.5 135.9 2.7 28.5 73 34 10.9 0.1 59.1 1.8 102.9 8.8 92.5 2.5 69.7 1.3 24.2 0.4 16.6 -2.1 59.6 1.9

638.7 3.5 29.6 1.8 609.1 3.6 33.6 13.5 136.6 2.4 28.7 73.2 34.3 10.9 0.8 59.2 1.8 105.1 9.3 93.1 2.3 69.9 1.2 24.3 0.5 16.5 -2.1 59.8 1.9

580.9 0.4 26.8 -0.6 554.1 0.4 27.1 -5.9 123.8 -0.6 25.6 68.9 29.3 10 -3.1 54.9 -0.4 86.3 2.5 86.1 1.6 65.6 3.1 23.6 -1.2 17.7 -0.7 59 0.5

582.6 0.2 27 0.9 555.6 0.1 26.9 -6.9 124.1 -0.3 25.8 68.6 29.5 10 -1.9 55 0.2 86.8 2 86.6 1.5 65.9 2.2 23.7 -0.4 17.6 -6.8 58.9 0

585.3 0.7 27.2 1.6 558.1 0.6 26.8 -5.7 125.1 0.9 26.2 68.5 30 10.3 1.4 55.3 0.6 87.4 1 87.3 2.2 66.1 2.4 23.8 -0.1 17.5 -1.7 58.6 -0.8

589 1.2 27.3 1.1 561.6 1.2 26.5 -4.5 126.3 2.4 26.5 68.9 30.5 10.5 3.1 55.7 0.4 88.4 1.7 88 2.6 66.6 2 23.9 0.5 17.5 -0.3 58.3 -1.1

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

55218.2 1363 1 697.7 0.5 10.8 3018 2799 219

55652 56033.2 56554.8 56981.5 57485.4 58045.2 58686.3 1366.2 1369.6 1373.3 1377.3 1381.4 1385.8 1390.4 1 1 1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 710.6 724.7 739.5 752.9 766.2 779.8 792.6 2.8 5.6 7.7 7.9 7.8 7.6 7.2 10.8 10.6 10.2 10 9.7 9.5 9.3 3416 3806 4436 5230 6281 7766 8791 3106 3389 3869 4472 5262 6424 7201 310 417 567 757 1019 1342 1590

59086 59692.5 60329.7 1395.5 1401 1407 1.3 1.4 1.5 805.4 817.7 829.8 7 6.7 6.4 9.1 8.9 8.6 9417 10225 10792 7667 8276 8674 1750 1949 2118

60906 61610.2 62251.3 1413.2 1419.4 1426.1 1.6 1.7 1.8 842.6 854.6 866 6.3 6.1 5.9 8.4 8.1 7.8 11372 11754 12266 8959 9128 9418 2413 2626 2848

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

La k e l a n d

P r o fi l e s The Lakeland MSA is comprised only of Polk County. It is located in the western center of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus. It is home to a few attractions, including Cypress Gardens and Fantasy of Flight. Also, the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians conduct spring training in Lakeland and Winter Haven, respectively. Quick Facts:

• Population estimate of 602,095 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 274,914 in February 2011 (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• An unemployment rate of 11.7% as of February 2011, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 32,286 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 6,644 employees

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Lakeland MSA will show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 5.1 percent annually, while the per capita income level will be at 30.8. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.8 percent, and the average annual wage level is expected to be at 43.3, one of the lowest of the studied areas. Population growth is expected to be one of the highest, averaging 2.0 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 17,613.28 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to be 1.4 percent annually. The unemployment rate for the metro will average 11.9 percent, the second highest.

The Construction and Mining sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 5.0 percent annual growth. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector averaging a growth rate of 4.7 percent a year. The Federal Government sector will experience a decline, with an annual growth rate of -6.9 percent.

• Lakeland Regional Medical Center – 4,540 employees

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s

• GEICO – 1,850 employees

Polk City Council moves on debt, utilities

• City of Lakeland – 2,600 employees • Watson Clinic – 1,500 employees • GC Services – 1,000 employees • Rooms To Go – 900 employees

• FedEx National LTL – 850 employees

• Saddle Creek Corporation – 680 employees • Summit Consulting – 654 employees

Source: Lakeland Economic Development Council

• The City Council voted to go forward with a bond issue of $8.9 million that will refinance the Polk City’s debt and restructure its water and sewer systems. • The bond money will be used to refinance a $4 million loan from SunTrust; to invest $1.4 million in water and wastewater capital improvement projects; to pay off a $1 million loan; and to pay the county impact fees. • This move increases the city’s debt by more than $2 million but annual payments will decline since the repayment has been extended from 1015 years to 30 years. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, February 22, 2011

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

La k e l a n d

Publix profit soars to $342.1 million; experts credit brand • Profits for Lakeland-based Publix Super Markets Inc. increased by 20.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010 and totaled $342.1 million. Publix had $1.3 billion in profits for 2010. • Experts believe the company has increased profits by reducing costs and becoming more efficient; by relying on its brand recognition in Florida; and by focusing on customer service. • Publix operates 1,032 stores in the Southeast, including 735 locations in Florida. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, March 1, 2011 Year-round public school employees asked to take days off to save district money • In order to conserve energy and reduce costs, year-round employees were asked to use three vacation days during the week of spring break. • The Polk County School District has taken the same measure each of the past three years. Employees do not have a choice of working the holiday week as they did at one point in past years. • According to the assistant superintendent for support services, the School District saves $30,000 for each day the schools are closed, which translates to $150,000 for the week of spring break. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, March 14, 2011

Sale of Chain of Lakes Complex approved for $9.5 million • Winter Haven city commissioners approved the sale to Landings Winter Haven Partners LLC. The Landings at Winter Haven will include two hotels, about 5 restaurants, many fast food restaurants, one major retailer and many small retailers. • Many expect the opening of The Landings at Winter Haven to coincide with the opening of Legoland Florida in Winter Haven this fall. • In order to complete the agreement, the city needs to relocate the Orange Dome, the ball fields and the theater building at a cost of $19.5 million. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, March 15, 2011 Haines City’s red-light cameras draw protests • Ten red-light cameras were installed at 5 intersections in January. The city signed a contract with American Traffic Solutions, a company based in Arizona, last June. Four intersections are located on U.S. 27 and one is on U.S. 17/92. • At the last commissioners meetings, residents continued to complain about the cameras and about tickets they have received in recent months. • A state law that took effect in July 1 declared a $158 fine for running a red light, $75 out of the fine goes to the city; the rest goes to the state Department of Revenue. Currently, there is a move to repeal the law. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, March 18, 2011

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

La k e l a n d Lakeland MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate

0.6

0.8

220.0 210.0 200.0 190.0 180.0 170.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Lakeland Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product 19000.0 18000.0 17000.0 16000.0 15000.0 14000.0 13000.0 12000.0 11000.0

Lakeland Payroll Employment (Thousands)

(Millions 2000 $)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Gross Metro Product

Lakeland Real Personal Income 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Personal Income

La k e l a n d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

March 2011

Personal Income (Billions $)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

14.8 10.6 6.7 8.1 15.2 7.8 28.1 28.9 34.2 1.6

16.3 10.6 7.4 8.9 16.3 7.4 30 30 35.6 4

17.7 8.2 7.9 9.7 17.2 5.3 31.4 30.6 37.3 4.7

18.8 6.3 8.1 10.7 17.8 3.4 32.5 30.8 38 1.9

19.4 3.4 8.1 11.3 17.8 0.1 33.2 30.4 38.5 1.5

19.2 -0.9 7.8 11.5 17.6 -1.1 32.7 29.9 39.2 1.7

19.8 2.8 7.9 11.9 17.8 1.1 33.2 29.9 40.4 3

20.7 4.6 8.1 12.5 18.3 2.6 34.3 30.3 41.6 3.1

21.5 4.2 8.6 13 18.7 2.6 35.1 30.5 42.8 2.9

22.6 5.1 9 13.6 19.4 3.5 36.1 30.9 43.9 2.6

24.1 6.4 9.5 14.6 20.3 4.5 37.4 31.4 45 2.5

25.7 6.5 10 15.7 21.2 4.7 38.8 32.1 46.1 2.5

208.4 -1.6 16.4 -5.2 192 -1.3 13.9 -12.2 47.8 -2.5 9.6 26.1 12.1 2.1 -3.4 12.2 2.8 31.3 -2.4 29.1 4 17.4 -0.5 8.6 -4.1 1.4 0.1 28.3 1.7

197.5 -5.2 14.8 -9.3 182.6 -4.9 11.7 -15.8 44.9 -6 9.1 24.2 11.6 1.9 -9.3 11.8 -3.4 29 -7.2 28.7 -1.4 16.5 -4.7 8.3 -4 1.4 -1.3 28.5 0.5

193.9 -1.8 14.2 -4.5 179.8 -1.6 10.6 -8.7 44.2 -1.6 8.7 24 11.5 1.8 -5.3 11.5 -2.5 28.7 -1.2 28.6 -0.4 16.2 -1.9 8.3 -0.1 1.6 15 28.3 -0.5

194.2 0.1 14 -1.5 180.3 0.3 10.2 -4 44.2 0.1 8.7 23.7 11.6 1.8 -1.2 11.4 -0.4 29 1.2 29.1 1.7 16.8 3.8 8.3 0.3 1.2 -21.4 28.2 -0.6

198.7 2.3 14.4 3.4 184.3 2.2 10.4 1.4 45.8 3.5 9.1 24.1 12.3 1.9 5 11.7 2.7 30.1 3.7 29.6 1.9 17.4 3.4 8.4 0.8 1.2 -2 27.9 -0.9

204.7 3 15 3.8 189.7 2.9 11.4 10.2 47.2 3.2 9.4 24.7 12.9 1.9 2.7 11.9 1.6 32 6.3 30 1.1 17.5 0.5 8.4 0.5 1.2 -2.2 28.2 0.9

210.8 3 15.2 1.8 195.6 3.1 12.8 12.4 48.3 2.2 9.7 24.9 13.4 1.9 1.6 12 0.9 34.4 7.6 30.4 1.5 17.5 0.1 8.4 0.3 1.2 -2 28.6 1.5

216 2.4 15.4 0.9 200.6 2.6 13.9 8.6 49.2 1.9 9.9 25 13.9 2 3.8 12.1 0.3 36.5 6.1 30.9 1.8 17.6 0.3 8.4 0.1 1.2 -1.1 28.8 0.6

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

194.5 5.9 18.2 0.6 176.3 6.5 14.4 11.4 43.9 4.3 9.4 23.5 11 2.2 -1.1 10.9 -1 30.6 20.7 24.1 5.3 15.3 2.2 8 7.6 1.3 -2.5 25.5 1

207.1 6.5 18.3 0.4 188.8 7.1 16.2 12.6 47.6 8.4 10.3 25.3 12.1 2.3 3 11.1 1.8 33.2 8.2 25.6 6.1 16.5 7.8 9 11.9 1.4 4.5 26 2

211.7 2.2 17.9 -2.2 193.8 2.6 16.9 4.1 48.9 2.8 10.4 26.1 12.5 2.4 3 11.6 4.2 32.9 -0.8 26.6 4.2 17 2.7 9.5 5.5 1.4 -0.6 26.7 2.7

211.8 0.1 17.2 -3.6 194.5 0.4 15.8 -6.5 49 0.1 10.1 26.4 12.5 2.2 -7.8 11.8 2.4 32 -2.6 28 5.1 17.4 2.9 9 -5.3 1.4 1.3 27.9 4.3

14693.1 15951.1 16662.4 16796.6 16530.5 16055.1 16358.9 16699.9 17240.1 17892.1 525.6 543.8 562.6 577.7 585 589.1 595.2 602.9 613.7 628.2 2.8 3.4 3.5 2.7 1.3 0.7 1 1.3 1.8 2.4 247.4 256.1 261.6 266.7 272.9 275.4 276 285.9 302.6 317.5 3.2 3.5 2.2 1.9 2.3 0.9 0.2 3.6 5.9 4.9 4.9 4 3.6 4.4 6.6 11.4 12.9 12.4 11.5 10.4 9091 12867 9528 4389 3155 1221 1281 1370 3242 5086 8288 11707 8288 4007 2359 1219 1226 1300 3067 4774 803 1161 1240 381 796 2 54 71 175 313

18621 19224.5 644.4 661.3 2.6 2.6 331.1 343.5 4.3 3.7 9.2 8.3 5928 6353 5385 5617 543 736

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

La k e l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL

March 2011

2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

20.4 4.4 8 12.4 18.1 2.8 33.9 30.1 41 3

20.6 4.2 8.1 12.5 18.2 2.3 34.2 30.2 41.5 3.2

20.8 4.7 8.2 12.6 18.3 2.5 34.4 30.3 41.8 3.2

21 5.1 8.3 12.7 18.5 2.9 34.7 30.4 42.1 3.1

21.1 3.8 8.4 12.7 18.5 2.3 34.7 30.3 42.4 3.4

21.4 4.1 8.5 12.9 18.7 2.6 35 30.5 42.7 2.9

21.7 4.3 8.6 13.1 18.8 2.7 35.3 30.6 43 2.7

22 4.5 8.7 13.2 19 2.9 35.5 30.7 43.2 2.6

22.2 5.2 8.8 13.4 19.2 3.7 35.7 30.8 43.5 2.6

22.5 5.1 9 13.5 19.3 3.4 35.9 30.8 43.8 2.6

22.8 5 9.1 13.7 19.5 3.4 36.2 30.9 44.1 2.5

23.1 5.1 9.2 13.9 19.6 3.4 36.4 31 44.3 2.5

23.6 5.9 9.4 14.2 19.9 4.1 36.9 31.2 44.6 2.5

23.9 6.2 9.5 14.4 20.1 4.3 37.2 31.3 44.9 2.4

196.7 1.9 14.2 2.5 182.5 1.8 10.1 -2 45.1 2.8 8.9 23.9 12 1.8 4.8 11.6 2.2 29.6 2.6 29.4 2.2 17.3 5.1 8.3 1.2 1.2 -1.8 28 -1.4

198 2.3 14.3 3.1 183.7 2.2 10.3 -0.1 45.6 3.6 9 24.1 12.2 1.8 5.6 11.7 2.6 29.8 3.6 29.6 2.1 17.4 4 8.3 0.8 1.2 -1.9 27.9 -1.2

199.4 2.5 14.5 3.6 184.9 2.4 10.4 2.4 46 3.7 9.1 24.2 12.4 1.9 4.7 11.8 3.1 30.2 4 29.7 1.8 17.5 2.9 8.4 0.8 1.2 -2.1 27.9 -0.7

200.8 2.7 14.6 4.2 186.2 2.5 10.6 5.4 46.4 3.7 9.2 24.4 12.5 1.9 4.7 11.8 2.9 30.6 4.5 29.8 1.5 17.5 1.6 8.4 0.6 1.2 -2.2 28 -0.2

202.2 2.8 14.8 4.5 187.3 2.7 10.9 8.2 46.7 3.5 9.3 24.5 12.7 1.9 4.1 11.9 2.4 31.1 5.2 29.8 1.1 17.5 1 8.4 0.6 1.2 -2.1 28 0.1

203.8 2.9 14.9 4.2 188.9 2.8 11.2 9.6 47.1 3.3 9.4 24.7 12.8 1.9 3 11.9 1.8 31.6 6 29.9 1.2 17.5 0.5 8.4 0.6 1.2 -2.2 28.1 0.7

205.5 3.1 15 3.6 190.5 3 11.6 10.9 47.4 3.2 9.5 24.8 13 1.9 2.5 11.9 1.2 32.3 6.8 30 1.2 17.5 0.2 8.4 0.6 1.2 -2.2 28.3 1.2

207.1 3.1 15.1 3 192 3.1 11.9 12.2 47.7 2.9 9.5 24.9 13.1 1.9 1.1 12 1.1 32.9 7.4 30.1 1 17.5 0.4 8.4 0.4 1.2 -2.2 28.4 1.5

208.8 3.3 15.2 2.3 193.7 3.4 12.3 13 48 2.8 9.6 24.9 13.3 1.9 1 12 0.9 33.5 7.7 30.3 1.7 17.5 0.3 8.4 0.2 1.2 -2.2 28.5 1.8

210.2 3.2 15.2 1.7 195 3.3 12.7 12.9 48.2 2.3 9.7 24.9 13.4 1.9 1.6 12 1 34.2 8.1 30.4 1.4 17.5 0.1 8.4 0.4 1.2 -2.1 28.6 1.7

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

193.1 -0.3 13.8 -3.2 179.2 0 10.3 -5.4 43.9 -0.8 8.6 23.9 11.4 1.8 -2.8 11.3 -2.1 28.8 2.4 28.8 0.8 16.5 1.4 8.3 0.5 1.3 -7.5 28.4 0.4

193.6 -0.5 13.9 -2.2 179.7 -0.4 10.3 -4.4 44 -0.6 8.7 23.7 11.5 1.7 -2.4 11.4 -0.5 28.8 1.3 29 1.5 16.7 2.9 8.3 -0.3 1.2 -42.7 28.3 -0.4

16518.2 16635.6 599.8 601.8 1.2 1.3 279.6 283.5 0.8 2.2 12.5 12.6 899 1178 841 1110 58 67

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

194.6 0.1 14 -1 180.6 0.1 10.2 -4 44.3 -0.1 8.8 23.6 11.7 1.8 -0.3 11.4 0 29 0.1 29.2 1.9 17 6 8.3 0.3 1.2 -20.2 28.1 -1.7

195.6 1.3 14.1 0.5 181.6 1.3 10.1 -2.3 44.7 1.8 8.9 23.7 11.9 1.8 0.6 11.5 0.9 29.3 0.8 29.4 2.7 17.2 4.8 8.3 0.7 1.2 -1 28 -0.5

16748 16897.9 603.9 606.2 1.3 1.4 287.9 292.5 4.9 6.4 12.4 12.1 1500 1906 1428 1819 72 86

16999 17147.2 17311.5 17502.6 17619.1 17805.1 608.9 612 615.2 618.7 622.4 626.1 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 296.7 300.7 304.7 308.4 311.9 315.7 6.1 6.1 5.9 5.4 5.1 5 11.9 11.6 11.4 11.2 10.9 10.6 2356 2897 3619 4097 4563 4982 2245 2743 3417 3865 4311 4700 111 153 202 233 253 281

17988 18156.4 18370.5 18549.4 630.1 634 638.1 642.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 319.4 323 326.3 329.5 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.4 10.3 9.9 9.6 9.3 5283 5518 5674 5864 4959 5125 5212 5351 324 392 462 513

M i a m i – F o r t L a u d e r d a l e – P o mp a n o B e a c h

Profiles The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, this area is home to many sports teams, such as the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins, and the Florida Panthers. Other major businesses also reside in this metro, including the Miami Seaquarium, the University of Miami, and Florida International University. QUICK FACTS:

• Metro area population estimate of 5,564,635 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,496,435 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Broward County population estimate of 1,748,066 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,320,134 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 2,877,658 in February 2011 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• An unemployment rate of 10.9% as of February 2011, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 314,906 unemployed people for the metro area. (Florida Research and Economic Database) TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Miami-Dade County Public Schools – 54,861 employees • Federal Government – 36,600 employees • Florida State Government – 33,500 employees • Miami-Dade County – 32,000 employees • University of Miami – 12,765 employees • Publix Super Markets – 11,760 employees • Baptist Health South Florida – 11,615 employees • Jackson Health System – 10,500 employees • American Airlines – 9,000 employees • Miami-Dade College – 6,500 employees Sources: The Beacon Council, Agency for Workforce Innovation, and Enterprise Florida

O u t l o o k S u mm a r i e s The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach area is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 4.8 percent annually, and the per capita income level, at 39.9, is the second highest of the studied areas. Average annual wage growth will be among the highest of the studied areas at 3.0 percent. The average annual wage level is expected to be 53.4, the highest of the studied MSAs. Miami is expected to average a population growth of 1.2 percent each year. The area has the highest Gross Metro Product at a level of 256,571.50 (Mill). Employment is expected to grow at an average rate of 2.0 percent each year, while unemployment is expected to be 9.9 percent.

Miami’s fastest growing sector is expected to be the Construction and Mining sector at 5.1 percent annually, followed by Professional and Business Services at 4.7 percent each year and Trade, Transportation and Utilities at 2.1 percent. The Federal Government sector is expected to decline with annual growth rate of -3.4 percent.

M e t r o N e w s S u mm a r i e s London Square sells for $95.2M • The London Square shopping center in Miami sold for $95.2 million total, $318.42 a square foot, to RREEF, an institutional investment advisor. • This was the largest sale of an open-air shopping center since 2008, according to Casey Rosen of CB Richard Ellis, who arranged the sale. • The sale is considered part of an ongoing trend in sales of shopping centers in South Florida which have reached $3.5 billion in the past year. Source: South Florida Business Journal, January 5, 2011

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Mia m i – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – P o m pa n o B each

Scripps splits $8M grant with Penn • The Scripps Research Institute has been awarded an $82 million grant to be shared with the University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine to research ways of fighting tobacco addiction. • $5.7 million of the grant from the National Institute of Health’s National Institute on Drug Abuse will go to Scripps. Source: South Florida Business Journal, January 10, 2011 Gulfstream airline sale saves 600 jobs • Gulfstream International Group, based in Miami, was sold to Victory Park Capital Advisors for $30 million after Gulfstream filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. • Gulfstream currently provides 600 jobs in Florida and Ohio. • Just last year Gulfstream received money from the U.S. Department of Transportation to subsidize underserved routes to Ohio. Source: South Florida Business Journal, January 12, 2011 Continucare sees 17% income gain • Continucare Corp, based in Miami, is a health care clinic company. Continucare reported a 17 percent increase in earnings during its fiscal second quarter, an increase from $5.3 million last year to $6.2 million this year. • This is the company’s 15th consecutive quarter of year-over-year improvement, and its shares have gone up from 9 cents a share last year, to 10 cents a share this year. Source: South Florida Business Journal, February 4, 2011

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

Rybovich unveils $45M mega yacht hub • Rybovich plans a $45 million mega yacht service center at a site currently owned by the company. • Originally, Rybovich had announced plans to build the new center on land leased from the city at the Riviera Beach Marina, but public opposition has changed the company’s plan. • The new center will service yachts up to 400 feet long. The center will create up to 3,400 new jobs and bring $630 million to the Palm Beach County economy. Source: South Florida Business Journal, March 4, 2011

Mia m i â&#x20AC;&#x201C; F o r t Lau d e r d a l e â&#x20AC;&#x201C; P o m pa n o B each Miami - Fort Lauderdale - Pompano Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

1.2

1.4

1.6

280000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

260000.0

220000.0 200000.0 180000.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

2400.0 2300.0 2200.0 2100.0 2000.0

Miami Real Gross Metro Product

160000.0

Miami Payroll Employment 2500.0

0.8

240000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Miami Payroll Employment

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Gross Metro Product

Miami Real Personal Income 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Mia m i – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – P o m pa n o B each

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

March 2011

Personal Income (Billions $)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

194.9 8.7 95.4 99.5 200.7 5.9 36.1 37.2 42.1 4.2

210.6 8.1 103.3 107.3 210.6 4.9 38.5 38.5 43.9 4.4

228.8 8.7 110.2 118.7 222.7 5.8 41.6 40.5 45.7 4.1

237.1 3.6 114.3 122.8 224.6 0.8 43 40.8 47 2.8

242.6 2.3 113.4 129.2 222.4 -1 43.7 40.1 47.9 1.9

236.2 -2.6 107.6 128.6 216.2 -2.8 42.2 38.6 48.5 1.3

241.2 2.1 108.7 132.6 217.1 0.4 42.7 38.4 49.5 2

251.5 4.2 112.7 138.8 222 2.3 44 38.9 51.1 3.2

260.8 3.7 118.7 142 226.8 2.2 45.1 39.3 52.7 3.1

273.7 5 125.1 148.5 234.3 3.3 46.8 40 54.1 2.8

291.1 6.4 132.1 159.1 244.7 4.4 49 41.2 55.6 2.7

309.7 6.4 138.8 170.9 256 4.6 51.2 42.4 57.1 2.8

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2252.4 2.5 100.8 -2.5 2151.6 2.7 131.5 7.5 516.1 1.3 138.6 285.6 91.9 55.8 -1.6 170 3.5 333 3.9 293.5 3.4 240.2 4.7 97.7 2 34.2 0.4 279.7 0.9

2337.1 3.8 101.2 0.4 2236 3.9 147.4 12.1 529.5 2.6 141.2 294.2 94.1 55.2 -1.1 178.2 4.9 358.7 7.7 301.5 2.8 247.6 3.1 99 1.3 34.5 1.1 284.3 1.6

2394.6 2.5 100.6 -0.5 2294 2.6 164.3 11.5 542.9 2.5 144.7 303.6 94.6 52.5 -4.9 183.5 3 370.3 3.2 308.1 2.2 251.7 1.7 99.3 0.3 34.1 -1.4 287.2 1

2416.8 0.9 98.6 -2 2318.2 1.1 161.1 -2 549.1 1.1 147.6 306.2 95.3 51.2 -2.4 181.4 -1.2 372.5 0.6 318.9 3.5 258 2.5 100.8 1.5 34 -0.2 291.2 1.4

2352.8 -2.7 92.5 -6.2 2260.3 -2.5 134.9 -16.2 540.1 -1.6 144.4 300.9 94.8 49.7 -2.9 170.8 -5.8 355.6 -4.5 326.3 2.3 257 -0.4 100.9 0.1 33.8 -0.4 291.2 0

2204.3 -6.3 79.6 -14 2124.7 -6 102.4 -24.1 504.4 -6.6 134.6 281.1 88.6 44.9 -9.6 155.1 -9.2 327.8 -7.8 330.5 1.3 247.5 -3.7 93.4 -7.4 34.1 0.7 284.5 -2.3

2183.6 -0.9 74.4 -6.6 2109.3 -0.7 88 -14.1 501.7 -0.5 132.1 282.1 87.6 43.2 -4 151.4 -2.4 329.9 0.6 336.2 1.7 249.7 0.9 93.8 0.4 36.6 7.5 278.7 -2

2194.2 0.5 73.5 -1.2 2120.7 0.5 82.8 -5.9 506 0.8 134.2 281.2 89.3 43.6 0.9 150.4 -0.7 333.2 1 341.7 1.7 255.9 2.5 94.6 0.8 34.3 -6.4 278.3 -0.1

2242.1 2.2 75.8 3.1 2166.3 2.2 83.7 1 522.3 3.2 139.7 286.3 94.4 45.7 4.9 153.5 2 347 4.2 348.3 1.9 262.4 2.6 94.9 0.4 33.4 -2.5 275 -1.2

2299.2 2.5 78.4 3.5 2220.8 2.5 93.2 11.4 536.7 2.8 144.1 292.5 98.3 46.6 1.8 155.2 1.1 366 5.5 353.3 1.4 265.6 1.2 95.1 0.2 32.6 -2.4 276.5 0.6

2362.7 2.8 79.5 1.4 2283.2 2.8 105.9 13.7 545.9 1.7 147.3 294.8 101.8 46.8 0.4 156.1 0.6 394.7 7.9 359.4 1.7 267.1 0.6 95.3 0.2 31.9 -2.1 280.1 1.3

2416.5 2.3 79.7 0.3 2336.8 2.3 116.5 10 553.2 1.3 149.5 296.1 105.1 48.1 3 156.5 0.3 418.9 6.1 366.5 2 268.3 0.5 95.4 0.1 31.5 -1.3 281.6 0.5

226379 5394.3 1.6 2610.4 1.4 5.1 40647 23667 16979

238907 5469.6 1.4 2673.4 2.4 4.2 41642 22542 19100

247052 5497.3 0.5 2749.6 2.9 3.6 32730 15769 16961

250335 5509.6 0.2 2812.3 2.3 4.1 14816 7602 7215

244124 5550.8 0.7 2850.6 1.4 6 7700 3526 4174

233515 5601.3 0.9 2835.9 -0.5 10.2 3635 2247 1388

238768 5655.6 1 2876.5 1.4 11.7 5185 3346 1839

244508 5712.4 1 3023.2 5.1 11.4 7191 4427 2764

251908 5776.2 1.1 3228.2 6.8 10.4 14367 9575 4792

260150 5851.7 1.3 3407.4 5.5 9.4 24954 16464 8490

269721 5941.9 1.5 3560.9 4.5 8.2 32699 20092 12607

277624 6044.7 1.7 3696.9 3.8 7.3 37358 22568 14789

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

Mia m i – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – P o m pa n o B each

Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

March 2011

2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

247.9 4.1 110.5 137.4 220 2.5 43.6 38.7 50.3 3

250.2 3.9 112.1 138.1 221.4 2 43.9 38.8 50.9 3.3

252.6 4.3 113.4 139.2 222.6 2.1 44.2 38.9 51.3 3.2

255.2 4.6 114.9 140.3 224 2.5 44.5 39.1 51.7 3.4

256.1 3.3 116.4 139.7 223.9 1.8 44.5 38.9 52.1 3.6

259.1 3.6 118 141.1 225.9 2 44.9 39.2 52.5 3.1

262.3 3.8 119.5 142.8 227.7 2.3 45.4 39.4 52.8 3

265.5 4.1 121.1 144.5 229.6 2.5 45.8 39.6 53.2 2.8

268.6 4.9 122.6 146 231.4 3.3 46.1 39.8 53.6 2.8

272 5 124.3 147.8 233.4 3.3 46.6 40 54 2.8

275.3 4.9 126 149.3 235.2 3.3 47 40.1 54.3 2.8

278.8 5 127.7 151.1 237.1 3.3 47.4 40.3 54.6 2.7

284.3 5.8 129.5 154.8 240.6 4 48.1 40.7 55 2.7

288.7 6.1 131.2 157.4 243.1 4.2 48.7 41 55.4 2.7

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2184.2 0.4 73 -2.8 2111.2 0.5 83.9 -6.5 502.5 0.7 132.1 282.2 87.9 42.8 -1.1 150 -1.1 329.5 0.1 339.2 1.4 254.2 3 94.4 1.6 34.5 -1.2 280.2 0.4

2188.6 0.1 73.3 -2 2115.3 0.1 83.3 -6.8 503.6 0.1 133 281.1 88.4 42.9 -0.5 150 -0.8 331.5 0.5 340.5 1.3 255.4 2.9 94.5 1 34.4 -16.8 279.2 0.9

2196.6 0.4 73.6 -1.1 2122.9 0.4 82.6 -6.1 506.8 0.8 135.1 280.2 89.8 43.8 1.3 150.5 -0.8 334.2 0.8 342.5 1.8 256.1 1.9 94.6 0.3 34.3 -4.6 277.6 -0.5

2207.4 1.1 74 1.2 2133.4 1.1 81.5 -4.1 511.2 1.8 136.7 281.4 91.2 44.7 4.1 151.2 0.1 337.5 2.5 344.6 2 257.7 2.1 94.9 0.4 34 -0.9 276.1 -1.4

2221.5 1.7 74.6 2.2 2146.9 1.7 81.5 -2.9 515.8 2.6 137.9 283.4 92.6 45.2 5.5 152.1 1.4 341.9 3.8 346 2 260.1 2.3 95 0.7 33.8 -2.2 275.4 -1.7

2235 2.1 75.4 2.8 2159.6 2.1 82.7 -0.6 520.6 3.4 139.1 285.6 93.9 45.4 5.8 153 2 344.8 4 347.7 2.1 262.2 2.6 94.8 0.3 33.5 -2.4 274.9 -1.6

2248.7 2.4 76.2 3.4 2172.5 2.3 84.2 2 524.3 3.5 140.2 287.3 95 45.8 4.4 154.2 2.4 348.7 4.3 349 1.9 263.2 2.8 94.9 0.3 33.3 -2.8 274.8 -1

2263.2 2.5 76.9 4 2186.3 2.5 86.2 5.8 528.6 3.4 141.6 289 96 46.5 4 154.8 2.4 352.5 4.5 350.7 1.8 264 2.5 95 0.1 33.1 -2.6 274.9 -0.5

2275.7 2.4 77.7 4.1 2198 2.4 88.7 8.8 531.8 3.1 142.5 290.5 96.9 46.7 3.3 155 1.9 356.9 4.4 350.8 1.4 265 1.9 95.2 0.2 32.9 -2.5 275.2 -0.1

2290 2.5 78.3 3.9 2211.7 2.4 91.5 10.6 535.3 2.8 143.5 292 97.8 46.4 2.3 154.9 1.3 361.6 4.9 352.8 1.5 265.4 1.2 95.1 0.3 32.7 -2.4 276 0.4

2307.5 2.6 78.6 3.2 2228.9 2.6 94.6 12.3 538.9 2.8 144.8 293.5 98.9 46.6 1.7 155.2 0.7 369.2 5.9 354.2 1.5 265.7 0.9 95.1 0.3 32.5 -2.4 277 0.8

2323.4 2.7 79 2.6 2244.5 2.7 97.9 13.5 541 2.4 145.5 294.1 99.8 46.6 0.2 155.6 0.5 376.2 6.7 355.4 1.4 266.3 0.9 95.1 0.1 32.3 -2.4 278 1.1

2340 2.8 79.2 1.9 2260.8 2.9 101.3 14.3 543 2.1 146.2 294.5 100.6 46.6 -0.2 155.8 0.5 383.6 7.5 357.5 1.9 266.6 0.6 95.2 0 32.2 -2.4 279.1 1.4

2356.1 2.9 79.4 1.4 2276.6 2.9 104.6 14.3 545.1 1.8 147 294.8 101.4 46.6 0.4 155.9 0.7 391.2 8.2 359.2 1.8 266.9 0.6 95.3 0.2 32 -2.2 279.9 1.4

242025 5690.1 1 2944.3 2.9 11.6 5978 3251 2727

243698 5704.6 1 2995.4 4.2 11.6 6657 3976 2681

245134 5719.7 1 3048.6 5.9 11.4 7440 4781 2659

247175 5735 1 3104.3 7.3 11 8689 5701 2988

248773 5750.6 1.1 3154.9 7.2 10.8 10272 6904 3368

250697 5767.3 1.1 3203.8 7 10.5 12640 8278 4361

252836 5784.3 1.1 3254.1 6.7 10.3 15917 10576 5341

255326 5802.5 1.2 3300.2 6.3 10.1 18640 12542 6098

256717 5821.4 1.2 3344.9 6 9.8 21331 14227 7104

258972 5840.8 1.3 3387.3 5.7 9.6 23973 16033 7939

261382 5861.4 1.3 3428.4 5.4 9.2 26099 17307 8792

263528 5883.2 1.4 3468.8 5.1 8.9 28415 18290 10125

266270 5905.7 1.4 3507.5 4.9 8.7 30279 18988 11291

268764 5929.3 1.5 3543.9 4.6 8.4 32063 19798 12265

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Nap l e s – Ma r c o I s l a n d

P r o fi l e s The Naples–Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier County only. Located on the southwest coast of Florida, the area is notable for numerous recreation and leisure activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the “Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida.” Quick Facts:

• Population estimate of 321,520 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 144,487 in February 2011 (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• An unemployment rate of 10.7% as of February 2011, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 15,508 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• NCH Healthcare System – 5000 employees

• Collier county School District – 4728 employees • Publix supermarket – 3246 employees • Marriott Hotels – 2328 employees

• Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. - 1715 employees

• Collier County Sheriff’s Office – 1029 employees • Winn Dixie Stores, Inc – 1014 employees • Home Depot – 1012 employees

Source: Economic Development Council of Collier County

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Naples–Marco Island MSA is expected to show strong growth in the economic indicators. The metro area will show a modest personal income growth of 4.3 percent. Per capita income level, which is expected to be 50.0, is the highest of the studied metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). Average annual wage will be the third highest at a level of 49.5. The average annual wage is expected to grow at a rate of 2.4 percent. Population growth will average 1.1 percent, one of the highest in the studied MSAs and the Gross Metro Product level will be 13,153.78 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to average 2.2 percent each year, the second highest ranking of the MSAs. The metro will see an unemployment rate of 11.4 percent.

The Professional and Business Services sector represents Naples’ fastest growing sector, growing at a rate of 6.4 percent each year. The Trade, Transportation, and Utilities sector follows with a growth rate of 3.0 percent. The State and Local Government sector is expected to decline this quarter at -0.4 percent average annual growth.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Corkscrew Swamp Sanctuary goes solar • Mainstream Energy generously donated a 10 kilowatt solar panel system that has been installed on the Audubon Center. • This move educates citizens about the amount of fossil fuels used. Mainstream Energy tried to deliver a message, not a check. The Audubon’s meter estimates that the Sanctuary has eliminated 400 pounds of carbon dioxide emissions in just two weeks. • The Sanctuary will educate the visitors about the direct health relationship between the watershed and the Gulf of Mexico. Source: Naples News, January 31, 2011

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

Nap l e s – Ma r c o I s l a n d

Project Innovation brings in new director with new executive director

Construction begins on Seasons 52 restaurant in North Naples

• Carol D’Amico has been named the new executive director of the Economic Development Council of Collier County.

• Construction of a Seasons 52 began this spring, and is estimated to be finished by this coming fall.

• The Council receives a total of $1 million per year. $400,000 comes from taxpayers, while $600,000 comes from private business owners.

• The Darden Restaurant will be located on US 41, close to its sister restaurant The Capital Grille. Seasons 52 is renowned for its seasonal menu.

• Project Innovation is now moving into the “action” phase. The Council will hold its third event at the Naples Zoo to focus on “quality of place,” one of the six drivers of the EDC.

• The grille and bar will seat up to 335 guests, inside and outside the restaurant. There will also be a piano bar, where there will be live entertainment every night.

Source: Naples News, March 15, 2011 Naples City Council approves runway extension on 4-3 vote • The extension of the Naples Municipal Runway was approved by the City Council at a packed council chamber meeting. Members of the community, on both sides of the issue, listened to 30 speakers. • The extension would include a 510 and 810 foot extension on the north and south end, respectively. The Airport Authority proposed this extension, equaling 5,000 feet for landing and 5,800 for taking off. Source: Naples News, March 16, 2011

Source: Naples News, March 21, 2011 Are taxpayers getting ‘hosed’? Commission approves tourism marketing contract • Collier County Commissioner Georgia Hiller cast the only dissenting vote when the council approved the Paradise Advertising and Marketing contract. She noted discrepancies between the county’s RFP and Paradise’s proposal. • This $2.35M contract includes $2 million dedicated to media and production costs for regular and emergency marketing. • Paradise Advertising and Marketing is a Naplesbased firm and has been contracting with the county since 2003. Source: Naples News, March 22, 2011

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Nap l e s â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Ma r c o I s l a n d Naples - Marco Island MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.8

1.6

1.8

18000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

12000.0 10000.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

8000.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Real Personal Income 24.0%

(percent change year ago)

20.0% 16.0%

120.0

12.0%

110.0

8.0%

100.0

4.0%

90.0

1.4

14000.0

130.0

80.0

1.2

Naples Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Payroll Employment 140.0

16000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

0.0%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Naples Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

-4.0%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Personal Income

Nap l e s â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Ma r c o I s l a n d

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

March 2011

Personal Income (Billions $)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

15.2 19.8 5 10.2 15.6 16.7 50.9 52.4 42 4.2

16.8 10.6 5.6 11.2 16.8 7.3 54.4 54.4 44.2 5.1

19.1 14 6 13.1 18.6 11 61 59.4 44.9 1.8

20.4 6.5 6.1 14.2 19.3 3.7 64.5 61.1 47 4.7

20.4 0 5.7 14.7 18.7 -3.2 64 58.7 46.5 -1.2

19 -6.6 5.2 13.9 17.4 -6.8 59.2 54.2 46.3 -0.3

19.2 1 5.2 14.1 17.3 -0.8 59.2 53.3 46.7 0.9

20.2 5.3 5.3 14.9 17.9 3.3 61.7 54.5 48.3 3.4

21.1 4.5 5.7 15.5 18.4 2.9 63.5 55.2 50 3.4

22.4 6 6.1 16.3 19.2 4.3 66 56.5 51.5 3

24.2 8 6.5 17.7 20.3 6 69.5 58.4 52.9 2.9

26.2 8.1 7 19.2 21.6 6.3 73 60.3 54.5 2.9

121 -6.6 3 -9.7 118.1 -6.5 14.4 -26.6 23 -5 3.3 18.2 1.5 1.8 -1 7.3 -10.4 12 -4.6 16.9 0.8 22.8 -2 6 0.4 0.7 -3.7 13.2 -0.3

110.8 -8.5 2.6 -11.2 108.1 -8.4 10.4 -27.8 21.2 -7.7 3.1 16.7 1.5 1.6 -8.9 6.6 -9.8 11.5 -4.2 16.6 -1.3 21 -8.2 5.7 -5.2 0.7 1.3 12.9 -2.8

109.7 -1 2.4 -7.2 107.3 -0.8 9 -13.4 21.2 -0.1 3 16.7 1.5 1.6 -3 6.6 -0.3 11.9 3.6 17 2.3 20.9 -0.4 5.6 -0.9 0.8 14.4 12.7 -1

109.8 0.1 2.4 -2.6 107.4 0.2 8.9 -1.2 20.7 -2 2.9 16.3 1.4 1.5 -2.5 6.6 -0.2 12.3 3.3 17.1 0.7 21.1 1 5.6 -1 0.7 -10.6 12.9 1.3

113.1 3 2.5 3.9 110.6 3 9.1 2.2 21.5 3.6 3 16.8 1.5 1.6 6.3 6.8 3.7 12.9 4.8 17.6 2.5 21.8 3.6 5.7 2.4 0.7 -0.9 12.9 0

117.7 4.1 2.6 4.2 115.1 4 10.1 11.3 22.4 4.1 3.2 17.4 1.6 1.7 4.1 7 3.1 13.9 8.1 18 2.3 22.3 2.1 5.8 2.2 0.7 -1 13.2 2.2

122.6 4.2 2.6 2.3 120 4.3 11.5 13.8 23.1 3.1 3.3 17.9 1.7 1.7 2.9 7.2 2.3 15.2 8.8 18.5 3 22.6 1.5 5.9 2 0.7 -0.7 13.6 3

127 3.6 2.7 1.2 124.4 3.6 12.7 10 23.7 2.8 3.5 18.3 1.8 1.8 5.2 7.3 1.4 16.2 6.5 19.1 3.3 23 1.7 6 1.8 0.7 0.2 13.9 2.1

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

118.2 5.8 3.1 5.9 115.1 5.8 16.7 14.8 23 2.4 3.3 18 1.7 1.8 7.3 7.1 5.8 14.2 10.1 13.9 1.8 20.3 8 5.4 -1.4 0.7 0 11.9 0.9

125.9 6.5 3.2 3 122.7 6.6 20.3 21.4 24.3 5.7 3.4 19.1 1.8 1.8 0 7.7 9.4 13.1 -7.9 15 7.7 21.8 7.3 5.7 5.2 0.7 0.1 12.3 2.9

132.7 5.4 3.3 3.7 129.4 5.4 23.9 17.7 24.5 1 3.2 19.5 1.7 1.9 3.2 8.2 5.7 13.6 4.1 15.9 5.8 22.2 1.8 5.8 1.9 0.7 0.1 12.7 3.4

129.6 -2.3 3.3 -1.3 126.3 -2.3 19.7 -17.7 24.2 -1.3 3.4 19.2 1.6 1.8 -5 8.2 0.1 12.6 -7.7 16.7 5.3 23.3 4.8 6 3.1 0.7 0 13.3 4.5

13699.7 14884.4 15772.5 15407.3 14392.2 13426.8 13741.3 14044.2 14580.6 15278.7 16097.8 16817.8 298.1 308.4 313.5 315.9 318.4 321.6 324.5 327.9 332.7 339.4 348 358.6 3.8 3.5 1.7 0.8 0.8 1 0.9 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 138 144 151 151 148 144.1 143.4 153.5 171.3 187.8 202.4 216 3.6 4.4 4.8 0 -2 -2.6 -0.5 7.1 11.6 9.6 7.8 6.7 4.2 3.4 3.1 4.2 6.8 11.2 12.5 11.9 10.9 9.9 8.7 7.9 6131 5793 4472 1991 971 837 1190 1436 2512 3754 4747 5283 4015 4034 3054 1163 668 646 820 1189 1931 2633 3064 3277 2115 1759 1419 828 304 191 370 247 581 1121 1683 2005

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Nap l e s â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Ma r c o I s l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

March 2011

2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

19.9 5 5.2 14.7 17.6 3.4 60.9 54.1 47.5 3.1

20.1 4.9 5.3 14.8 17.8 2.9 61.4 54.3 48.2 3.5

20.3 5.5 5.4 15 17.9 3.3 62 54.6 48.6 3.5

20.6 5.8 5.5 15.1 18.1 3.7 62.5 54.9 49 3.6

20.6 3.8 5.5 15.1 18 2.3 62.4 54.6 49.4 3.9

21 4.3 5.6 15.3 18.3 2.8 63.1 55.1 49.8 3.3

21.3 4.7 5.7 15.6 18.5 3.1 63.9 55.5 50.1 3.2

21.6 5 5.8 15.8 18.7 3.5 64.6 55.9 50.5 3

21.9 6.2 5.9 16 18.9 4.6 65.1 56.1 50.9 3.1

22.2 6 6 16.2 19.1 4.3 65.7 56.3 51.3 3

22.6 5.9 6.1 16.4 19.3 4.2 66.3 56.6 51.6 3

22.9 6 6.3 16.7 19.5 4.2 67 57 52 2.9

23.5 7.3 6.4 17.1 19.9 5.4 68.3 57.8 52.4 2.9

23.9 7.7 6.5 17.5 20.2 5.8 69 58.1 52.7 2.8

111.5 2.2 2.4 3 109.1 2.2 8.9 -1.1 21.2 2.7 3 16.5 1.5 1.6 6.1 6.7 3.2 12.6 3.3 17.4 2.6 21.5 3.3 5.7 2.7 0.7 -0.8 12.9 -0.7

112.6 2.8 2.5 3.6 110.1 2.8 9 0.7 21.4 3.6 3 16.7 1.5 1.6 7 6.8 3.5 12.8 4.6 17.5 2.7 21.8 3.6 5.7 2.3 0.7 -0.9 12.9 -0.4

113.6 3.3 2.5 4.1 111.1 3.3 9.2 3.1 21.6 4 3.1 16.9 1.5 1.6 6.1 6.8 4 13 5.4 17.6 2.4 22 3.8 5.7 2.3 0.7 -1 12.9 0.2

114.7 3.6 2.5 4.7 112.2 3.6 9.4 6.2 21.8 4.2 3.1 17 1.6 1.7 6.1 6.9 4 13.2 6.1 17.7 2.2 22.1 3.6 5.7 2.2 0.7 -1.1 13 0.8

115.7 3.8 2.5 4.9 113.2 3.8 9.7 9 22 4.1 3.1 17.2 1.6 1.7 5.5 6.9 3.6 13.5 6.8 17.7 2 22.2 2.8 5.8 2.3 0.7 -1 13 1.3

117 3.9 2.6 4.6 114.4 3.9 9.9 10.5 22.3 4 3.2 17.4 1.6 1.7 4.5 7 3.2 13.8 7.7 17.9 2.3 22.3 2.1 5.8 2.3 0.7 -1.1 13.1 1.9

118.3 4.2 2.6 4 115.8 4.2 10.3 12 22.5 4.2 3.2 17.5 1.6 1.7 4 7 2.8 14.1 8.6 18 2.4 22.3 1.7 5.8 2.3 0.7 -1.1 13.3 2.5

119.7 4.3 2.6 3.4 117.1 4.3 10.7 13.5 22.7 3.9 3.3 17.7 1.6 1.7 2.5 7.1 2.8 14.4 9.2 18.1 2.4 22.4 1.7 5.9 2.1 0.7 -1 13.4 3

121 4.6 2.6 2.8 118.4 4.6 11 14.4 22.9 3.8 3.3 17.7 1.7 1.7 2.4 7.1 2.6 14.8 9.6 18.3 3.2 22.5 1.6 5.9 1.9 0.7 -0.9 13.5 3.3

122.1 4.4 2.6 2.2 119.5 4.4 11.4 14.4 23 3.3 3.3 17.8 1.7 1.7 2.9 7.2 2.5 15.1 9.5 18.4 2.9 22.6 1.5 5.9 2.1 0.7 -0.8 13.6 3.3

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

109.1 -0.3 2.3 -5.2 106.7 -0.2 9 0.6 20.6 -2.9 2.8 16.3 1.4 1.5 -5.8 6.5 -2.5 12.2 6.6 17 0.1 20.9 -1.1 5.5 -1.7 0.7 -0.6 13 1.7

109.5 -0.5 2.4 -5 107.1 -0.4 8.9 -0.4 20.7 -2.9 2.9 16.3 1.4 1.5 -6.5 6.5 -0.6 12.2 4.9 17 -0.2 21 -0.3 5.5 -1.1 0.7 -26.2 12.9 1.8

110 -0.4 2.4 -0.2 107.6 -0.4 8.9 -3.7 20.8 -3 2.9 16.3 1.4 1.5 -1.5 6.6 -0.1 12.3 0.8 17.2 0.6 21.1 2.1 5.6 -1.6 0.7 -8.4 12.9 1

110.7 1.5 2.4 0.2 108.3 1.5 8.8 -1.1 21 0.8 3 16.4 1.5 1.6 4.3 6.6 2.5 12.5 1.3 17.3 2.2 21.3 3.4 5.6 0.4 0.7 -2 12.9 0.8

13863.2 13984.6 14095.4 14233.7 14334.5 14486.8 14654.6 14846.7 14973.9 15177.4 326.3 327.3 328.4 329.5 330.7 332 333.4 334.9 336.5 338.4 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 146.9 151.2 155.7 160.4 164.7 169.1 173.5 177.8 182 186 1.7 5.1 9.4 12.3 12.1 11.9 11.4 10.9 10.5 10 12 12.1 11.9 11.6 11.4 11 10.8 10.6 10.4 10 1132 1324 1522 1765 2021 2353 2698 2976 3274 3634 923 1099 1274 1460 1635 1825 2068 2194 2343 2580 209 225 249 306 386 528 629 782 932 1054

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

15385 15578.4 15809.6 16013.7 340.3 342.3 344.4 346.8 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5 189.7 193.5 197.1 200.7 9.4 8.8 8.3 7.9 9.7 9.3 9.1 8.8 3909 4199 4433 4666 2747 2862 2930 3033 1162 1337 1503 1633

Oca l a

P r o fi l e s Comprised of Marion County only, the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area in the center of the state. The second-largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area. Quick Facts:

• Population estimate of 331,298 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• A civilian labor force of 132,372 in February 2011 (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• An unemployment rate of 13.2% as of February 2011, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 17,444 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• Marion County Public Schools – 6,084 employees

• Munroe Regional Medical Center – 2,500 employees • State of Florida (all departments) – 2,500 employees

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Ocala MSA is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 5.6 percent annually, the second highest of the metros. Per capita income level is the lowest of the twelve metros at 29.8. Relative to other metro areas, Ocala will have the lowest average annual wage level, at 40.6. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.1 percent. The metro has the highest expected annual population growth at 2.2 percent. The Gross Metro Product is expected to be 7,292.43 (Mill), one of the lowest in the studied metro areas.

Employment growth is expected to average a rate of 2.2 percent annually. The unemployment rate is estimated to be 12.1 percent, the highest of the researched metropolitan areas.

The Construction and Mining sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in Ocala, averaging an annual growth rate of 6.2 percent. The Professional and Business Services sector follows with a growth rate of 5.5 percent. The third ranked is the Information sector at 2.8 percent. Only one sector is expected to show negative growth, and that is the Federal Government sector at -7.0 percent.

• Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – 2,370 employees

• Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,404 employees

• Marion County Board of County Commissioners – 1,400 employees • Ocala Regional Medical Center – 1,301 employees

• Taylor, Bean & Whitaker Mortgage Corporation – 1,238 employees • AT&T – 1,000 employees

• City of Ocala – 979 employees

Source: Ocala/Marion County Economic Development Council

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Restaurants: Chains said to be interested in Marion • Bartow McDonald, director of Sperry Van Ness/ Skye Commercial Real Estate, has announced that several restaurant chains are considering opening locations in Marion County. • Two chains considering Marion County locations are Stonewood Tavern and Famous Dave’s BBQ. Source: Ocala Star Banner, December 30, 2010

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Oca l a

Marion County’s $369K hilltop • Three major accidents at Northwest 100th Street have prompted county officials to spend $369 thousand to flatten a hill on a lightly travelled stretch of road.

School district to end student drug-testing program amidst cuts • Marion County School District is ending a drug-testing program which tested students who were involved in extracurricular activities.

• The site fails to meet safety standards for view of the road ahead according to County Engineer Mounir Bouyounes. A flashing light and new speed limit signs were installed as temporary measures following the accidents.

• The testing appears to have been effective. In the first year of its implementation, 2.2 percent of students tested were positive for drugs. In the second year only 1.48 percent of the tests were positive.

• The money to fund the project will be taken from Gas Tax revenues.

• The program was costing $155,500 annually and was originally financed through a $622,000 federal grant that ended in 2009.

Source: Ocala Star Banner, January 12, 2011 County’s local gas tax is meeting expectations • Marion County’s local gas tax of 5cents per gallon raised $5.5 million in 2010, as expected at its adoption two years ago. • The gas tax was intended to help repay $56 million that the county borrowed for road projects. • County officials don’t expect rising gas prices to dramatically affect the revenue from the tax or the county’s ability to repay its loans. Source: Ocala Star Banner, February 28, 2011

Source: Ocala Star Banner, March 2, 2011 Massive Ocala greenhouse project could mean 360 new jobs • America Fresh Farms LLC has proposed 1.64 million square feet of controlled environment greenhouses in Ocala Business Park at the airport. • The company plans to invest $112 million in the project and is asking for $8.68 million in city and state incentives. The project is expected to create about 360 new jobs with average salaries of around $30,000. • Thanks to state and national incentives, the company would recoup its investment in about 8.5 years. Source: Ocala Star Banner, March 11, 2011

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

Oca l a Ocala MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

(percent)

0.6

0.8

1.4

1.6

1.8

8000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

7500.0 7000.0 6500.0 6000.0 5500.0 5000.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

105.0 100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 80.0

1.2

Ocala Real Gross Metro Product

4500.0

Ocala Payroll Employment 110.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Ocala Payroll Employment

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Gross Metro Product

Ocala Real Personal Income 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Oca l a

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

March 2011

Personal Income (Billions $)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

7.7 11 3 4.7 7.9 8.1 26.3 27.1 30.9 2.6

8.6 11.9 3.3 5.3 8.6 8.6 28.3 28.2 32.2 4

9.6 11.7 3.7 5.9 9.4 8.7 30.4 29.5 34.5 7.3

10.1 4.7 3.8 6.3 9.5 1.9 30.9 29.3 34.9 1.3

10.5 4.4 3.7 6.8 9.6 1.1 31.9 29.2 36.3 4

10.4 -1.1 3.5 6.9 9.5 -1.3 31.4 28.7 36.8 1.3

10.7 2.7 3.4 7.3 9.6 1 31.9 28.7 37.5 1.8

11.2 4.9 3.5 7.7 9.9 2.9 33.1 29.2 38.7 3.3

11.7 4.6 3.7 8 10.2 3.1 34 29.6 40 3.2

12.4 5.7 4 8.4 10.6 4 35 29.9 41.2 2.9

13.3 7.2 4.2 9.1 11.2 5.3 36.4 30.6 42.3 2.8

14.3 7.4 4.5 9.8 11.8 5.6 37.8 31.3 43.5 2.8

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

95.9 6.6 9.6 4 86.3 6.9 9.9 16.7 21.7 3.6 3.6 15.6 2.5 2.2 1.1 4.9 12.4 8.2 7.4 11.1 6 8.7 13.1 3.8 7.7 0.7 0 15.1 2.3

101.5 5.9 9.9 3.6 91.6 6.2 10.7 8.8 22.9 5.7 3.9 16.3 2.7 2.2 -2.3 5.4 11.2 8.9 9.5 12 7.7 9.2 6.3 4 5.2 0.7 0.1 15.4 2.3

106.2 4.6 9.9 -0.6 96.3 5.1 12.6 17.1 23.4 1.9 4.2 16.4 2.7 2.1 -1.9 5.8 6.1 9.3 4.1 12.7 5.8 9.7 4.8 4.1 1.9 0.7 0.1 16 3.6

106.8 0.6 9.6 -3 97.2 1 11.6 -7.6 23.8 1.7 4.4 16.4 2.9 2 -7.2 6 3.6 8.5 -8.3 13.3 4.8 10.6 9.5 4.3 4.6 0.7 0.1 16.5 2.9

101.9 -4.6 8.3 -13.9 93.6 -3.7 9.6 -17 22.7 -4.5 4.1 15.7 2.9 1.9 -3 5.9 -0.6 8.1 -4.6 13.5 1.5 10.4 -2.1 3.9 -8.6 0.7 2.3 16.8 2.1

93.2 -8.6 6.7 -19.3 86.5 -7.6 7.3 -24.3 20.5 -9.6 3.5 14.6 2.5 1.7 -11.9 5.1 -13.3 7.7 -5 12.9 -4.3 10 -3.8 3.6 -7.6 0.7 1.1 16.9 0.4

90.5 -2.9 6.4 -3.4 84 -2.8 6.3 -14 19.9 -3.1 3.3 14.2 2.3 1.5 -10.4 4.1 -20 7.5 -3.2 13.4 3.9 9.9 -1.2 3.6 0.4 0.9 26.4 16.9 0.4

89.9 -0.7 6.4 0.1 83.4 -0.7 6.1 -3.2 19.8 -0.5 3.4 14 2.3 1.5 1.6 4.1 0.6 7.5 0.5 13.7 2.3 9.7 -1.2 3.6 -0.5 0.7 -23.9 16.6 -2

92.2 2.6 6.6 3 85.6 2.6 6.2 2.7 20.5 3.5 3.5 14.4 2.5 1.6 5.1 4.3 3.2 7.9 5.1 14.1 2.7 10.1 3.3 3.7 1.9 0.7 -1.4 16.5 -0.3

95.4 3.5 6.9 3.6 88.6 3.5 7 11.6 21.2 3.6 3.6 14.9 2.6 1.6 2.8 4.4 2.4 8.5 7.5 14.4 1.9 10.2 1.7 3.8 1.7 0.7 -1.5 16.8 1.5

98.8 3.5 7 1.5 91.8 3.7 7.9 13.8 21.7 2.5 3.7 15.1 2.7 1.7 1.8 4.4 1.7 9.3 9 14.7 2.4 10.4 1.2 3.8 1.4 0.7 -1.2 17.2 2.3

101.7 3 7 0.4 94.7 3.2 8.7 9.9 22.2 2.2 3.8 15.4 2.9 1.7 4 4.5 0.9 10 7.7 15.1 2.8 10.5 1.4 3.9 1.3 0.7 -0.3 17.4 1.4

6339.5 292.6 3.9 118.9 4 4.6 5099 4994 105

6871.6 304.8 4.2 126.8 6.7 3.7 7181 6606 575

7294.8 316.8 3.9 132.8 4.7 3.4 7242 6862 380

7409.2 325.5 2.7 136.5 2.7 4.5 3128 2808 320

7185.5 329.7 1.3 138 1.1 7.8 1210 1186 23

6713.8 331.7 0.6 136 -1.5 12.9 423 401 23

6743.6 334.7 0.9 134.2 -1.3 14.4 503 502 1

6869 338.7 1.2 141.5 5.4 13.4 718 710 8

7118.6 344.8 1.8 157.3 11.2 12.7 2050 1999 52

7419.2 354.3 2.7 172.4 9.6 11.7 3363 3242 120

7762.9 365.5 3.2 184.4 7 10.4 3885 3708 177

8055.8 377.4 3.3 195.4 6 9.4 4072 3880 193

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

Oca l a

Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL

March 2011

2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

11 4.5 3.4 7.6 9.8 2.8 32.7 29 38.1 3.1

11.1 4.4 3.5 7.6 9.9 2.5 32.9 29.1 38.6 3.4

11.3 5.2 3.5 7.7 9.9 3 33.2 29.3 38.9 3.4

11.4 5.6 3.6 7.8 10 3.4 33.5 29.4 39.3 3.4

11.5 4.1 3.6 7.8 10 2.6 33.5 29.3 39.6 3.7

11.6 4.5 3.7 8 10.1 3 33.9 29.5 39.9 3.2

11.8 4.8 3.7 8.1 10.3 3.2 34.2 29.7 40.1 3.1

12 5 3.8 8.2 10.4 3.5 34.5 29.8 40.4 2.9

12.1 5.9 3.9 8.3 10.5 4.3 34.7 29.9 40.7 2.9

12.3 5.7 3.9 8.4 10.6 4 34.9 29.9 41 2.9

12.5 5.6 4 8.5 10.7 3.9 35.1 30 41.3 2.9

12.7 5.6 4 8.6 10.8 3.9 35.3 30 41.6 2.9

12.9 6.6 4.1 8.8 11 4.7 35.8 30.3 41.9 2.8

13.2 7 4.2 9 11.1 5 36.2 30.5 42.2 2.8

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

89.3 -1.7 6.4 -2.2 82.9 -1.7 6.1 -4.5 19.7 -1.8 3.3 14 2.3 1.5 0.9 4.1 -2.7 7.4 0.3 13.6 2.1 9.7 -3.3 3.6 -3.3 0.7 -18.3 16.7 -2.1

89.6 -1.6 6.4 -0.1 83.2 -1.7 6.1 -4.1 19.7 -1.5 3.3 14 2.3 1.5 0 4.1 1.7 7.5 0 13.6 1.7 9.7 -2.7 3.6 -1.2 0.7 -39.1 16.6 -2.4

90 -0.3 6.5 1.3 83.6 -0.5 6.1 -3 19.8 -0.3 3.4 14 2.4 1.5 0.9 4.1 2.5 7.6 0.3 13.8 2.6 9.8 -0.8 3.6 2.4 0.7 -24.5 16.6 -2.4

90.5 1 6.5 1.6 84 1 6 -1.2 20 1.6 3.4 14.1 2.4 1.6 4.5 4.2 1 7.7 1.5 13.9 2.8 9.8 2 3.7 0.5 0.7 -6.3 16.5 -1

91.1 1.9 6.5 2.1 84.6 1.9 6.1 -0.8 20.2 2.6 3.4 14.2 2.4 1.6 5 4.2 2.8 7.8 4.3 14 2.9 9.9 3 3.7 2.2 0.7 -1.2 16.5 -0.8

91.8 2.5 6.6 2.7 85.2 2.5 6.2 1.1 20.4 3.5 3.5 14.3 2.5 1.6 5.8 4.2 3.1 7.8 5 14.1 3 10 3.3 3.7 1.8 0.7 -1.3 16.5 -0.6

92.6 2.9 6.7 3.3 85.9 2.8 6.3 3.6 20.6 3.9 3.5 14.5 2.5 1.6 4.9 4.3 3.6 8 5.3 14.1 2.6 10.1 3.5 3.7 1.8 0.7 -1.4 16.6 -0.1

93.4 3.2 6.7 3.9 86.7 3.1 6.4 6.7 20.8 4 3.5 14.6 2.6 1.6 4.8 4.3 3.5 8.1 5.7 14.2 2.2 10.2 3.2 3.7 1.7 0.7 -1.5 16.6 0.4

94.1 3.3 6.8 4.2 87.3 3.2 6.6 9.5 20.9 3.8 3.6 14.7 2.6 1.6 4.2 4.3 3 8.3 6.4 14.2 1.9 10.2 2.5 3.7 1.7 0.7 -1.4 16.6 0.7

95 3.4 6.9 4 88.1 3.4 6.8 10.9 21.1 3.7 3.6 14.8 2.6 1.6 3.2 4.4 2.6 8.4 7.2 14.3 2 10.2 1.8 3.8 1.8 0.7 -1.5 16.7 1.3

95.9 3.6 6.9 3.4 89 3.6 7.1 12.3 21.3 3.7 3.6 15 2.6 1.6 2.6 4.4 2.1 8.6 8 14.4 2 10.3 1.4 3.8 1.7 0.7 -1.5 16.9 1.8

96.8 3.6 6.9 2.8 89.8 3.7 7.3 13.6 21.5 3.3 3.7 15 2.7 1.7 1.3 4.4 2 8.8 8.5 14.5 1.9 10.3 1.3 3.8 1.5 0.7 -1.5 17 2.3

97.7 3.8 7 2.1 90.7 3.9 7.6 14.3 21.6 3.2 3.7 15.1 2.7 1.7 1.2 4.4 1.9 9 8.9 14.6 2.6 10.3 1.3 3.8 1.4 0.7 -1.4 17.1 2.6

98.5 3.6 7 1.5 91.5 3.8 7.8 14.3 21.7 2.6 3.7 15.1 2.7 1.7 1.8 4.4 1.8 9.2 9.3 14.7 2.4 10.3 1.1 3.8 1.5 0.7 -1.3 17.2 2.5

6784.9 337.1 1.1 135.6 0.3 13.5 392 392 0

6840.9 338.1 1.2 139.4 3.4 13.6 578 570 8

6891.9 339.2 1.2 143.3 7 13.5 804 795 8

6958.4 340.5 1.2 147.5 11 13.2 1099 1084 15

7006.7 342 1.4 151.5 11.7 13 1419 1394 24

7076.4 343.7 1.7 155.3 11.4 12.7 1802 1763 39

7152.7 345.8 1.9 159.2 11.1 12.6 2318 2255 62

7238.7 347.9 2.2 163.2 10.6 12.4 2664 2583 81

7292.8 350.3 2.4 167.3 10.5 12.2 3023 2925 98

7377.8 352.9 2.7 170.9 10 11.9 3300 3189 112

7463.2 355.6 2.9 174 9.3 11.5 3492 3366 126

7543.1 358.4 3 177.1 8.6 11.1 3634 3489 145

7640.8 361.1 3.1 180.1 7.6 10.8 3725 3564 161

7727.1 364 3.1 183 7.1 10.5 3845 3671 174

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O r l a n d o – Ki s s i m m ee

P r o fi l e s The Orlando–Kissimmee MSA is comprised of Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole counties. Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World and numerous other Disney enterprises, Universal Studios, and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic, the Orlando Predators arena football team, and Atlanta Braves spring training at Disney’s Wide World of Sports. The University of Central Florida, the nation’s third-largest university, and many other places of higher education also reside in the MSA. QUICK FACTS: • • • • • • •

Metro population estimate of 2,134,411 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) Lake County population estimate of 297,052 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) Orange County population estimate of 1,145,956 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) Osceola County population estimate of 268,685 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) Seminole County population estimate of 422,718 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) A civilian labor force of 1,120,020 in February 2011 (Florida Research and Economic Database) An unemployment rate of 10.8% as of February 2011, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 121,152 unemployed people in the Orlando MSA. (Florida Research and Economic Database)

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • • • • • • • • • •

Walt Disney Co. – 62,200 employees Orange County Public Schools – 23,228 employees Florida State Government – 19,500 Florida Hospital (Adventist Health System) – 16,002 employees Publix Super Markets Inc. – 15,606 employees Universal Orlando – 13,000 employees Federal Government – 12,700 University of Central Florida – 10,152 employees Orlando Regional Healthcare System – 10,000 employees Seminole County Public Schools – 9,984 employees

Sources: Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission, Agency for Workforce Innovation, and Orlando Business Journal 64

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Orlando–Kissimmee area is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to be at a rate of 5.6 percent annually, the second highest of the studied metro areas. The per capita income level is expected to be 33.3. Average annual wage growth will be 2.7 percent, and average annual wage will be at a level of 46.1. The Orlando MSA will see population growth of 1.8 percent, the third highest. Gross Metro Product is expected to be one of the highest in the studied metro areas, averaging 101,910.90 (Mill). Employment growth is forecasted to average 2.6 percent annually, the second highest. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 9.0 percent. In the Orlando area, the fastest growing sector is expected to be Construction and Mining with an average annual growth rate of 4.8 percent. This will be followed by Professional and Business Services, with an average annual growth rate of 4.7 percent. The only sector that will experience negative growth is the Federal Government sector, with an average annual rate of growth of –2.6 percent.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Lockheed unit wins $270M contract • Lockheed Martin has an Orlando-based training group that employs about 200 people. The Air Force hired the aforementioned group to train Air Force members on the C-130 aircraft program. • The Training and Logistics team will support efforts to develop teaching, site managing, engineering, and operation of new technology. • Lockheed employs 132,000 people worldwide and brings in $45.8 billion in sales. Source: Orlando Business Journal, February 15, 2011

O r l a n d o – Ki s s i m m ee

Construction begins on UCF housing project • A $65M project has begun on Alafaya Trail, just north of the University of Central Florida. The development will be luxury housing for students. • It is set to open August 2012. It will house nearly 1,000 students in 416 units. • Inland American Communities bought the 10acre parcel in 2008. The company has partnered with Winter Park Construction, among others, to complete this project. Source: Orlando Business Journal, February 15, 2011 UCF grad programs among nation’s best • UCF College of Education was awarded the 12th best counseling graduate program in the nation. • U.S. News and World Report ranked this program, as well as programs in nursing, engineering, computer science, and public administration, among the top 100 in their fields.

• Kissimmee has spent $7.3 million on utilities for the park. The city predicts that it will finish this phase by July. The next phase of the park will include playgrounds, a seawall, picnic shelters, and a public pier with a bait and marina building. Source: Orlando Business Journal, March 18, 2011 Orlando to be one of few cities with 3 kids’ hospitals • Nemours Hospital is set to open fall 2012, making Orlando one of nine cities in the nation with three hospitals dedicated to children. • The hospital has been in the works since 2005, and it will offer 95 beds. Florida Hospital and Orlando Health originally challenged the proposal but finally agreed after a few conditions were met. • The company plans on hiring 700 between this fall and its fall 2012 opening. Source: Orlando Business Journal, March 19, 2011

• They are ranked by experts to reflect the quality of research, professors and students. Source: Orlando Business Journal, March 15, 2011 $28.5M park plan to spur commercial development • Kissimmee is planning to redevelop a 25-acre lake front park. The park will have water, sewer, electric and other infrastructure, with hopes of creating opportunities to develop around the park.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O r l a n d o â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Ki s s i m m ee Orlando - Kissimmee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Providing Private Service Providing Mining and Logging Construction Manufacturing Durable Goods Non-Durable Goods Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.8

110000.0

1.6

1.8

(Millions 2000 $)

80000.0 70000.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate

60000.0

(Thousands)

15.0%

1050.0

9.0%

1000.0

6.0%

950.0

3.0%

900.0

0.0%

850.0

-3.0%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 OrlandoPayroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Gross Metro Product

Orlando Real Personal Income 12.0%

1.4

90000.0

1100.0

800.0

1.2

Orlando Real Gross Metro Product

Orlando Payroll Employment 1150.0

100000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

-6.0%

(percent change year ago)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Personal Income

O r l a n d o â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Ki s s i m m ee

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

March 2011

Personal Income (Billions $)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

58.1 9.4 36.3 21.7 59.8 6.6 30.8 31.7 37.4 4.8

64 10.2 40.2 23.8 64 7 32.7 32.7 39.1 4.6

69.9 9.3 43.5 26.5 68.1 6.4 34.7 33.8 40.7 4

73 4.3 45.4 27.6 69.1 1.5 35.6 33.7 41.4 1.8

75.1 2.9 45.5 29.6 68.8 -0.4 36.1 33.1 42.2 1.9

73.2 -2.6 42.7 30.5 67 -2.7 34.8 31.8 42.3 0.1

75.2 2.8 43.2 32 67.7 1 35.3 31.8 43 1.7

79 5 45.2 33.8 69.7 3 36.7 32.4 44.3 3.1

82.6 4.6 47.7 34.9 71.9 3.1 37.8 32.9 45.6 2.8

87.4 5.7 50.4 37 74.8 4.1 39.2 33.6 46.7 2.5

93.4 6.9 53.3 40.1 78.5 5 40.9 34.4 47.9 2.4

99.7 6.7 56.3 43.5 82.4 5 42.4 35.1 49 2.5

1072.7 -1.7 42.8 -4.1 1029.9 -1.6 72.7 -14.8 200.8 -1.6 45.8 121.9 33.1 26.3 -1.8 67.6 -1.8 177.3 -2.2 116.4 3.3 199.6 3.1 51.4 -7.9 11.8 2.8 105.9 -0.3

1006.3 -6.2 38.7 -9.5 967.6 -6 54.5 -25 186.1 -7.3 40.4 115.6 30.1 24.9 -5.5 64 -5.4 165 -6.9 118.5 1.8 190.2 -4.7 48 -6.7 12.1 2.6 104.4 -1.4

1001.4 -0.5 37.5 -3.1 963.9 -0.4 47.7 -12.5 184.4 -0.9 38.3 116.4 29.7 23.8 -4.5 63.3 -1 163.9 -0.7 121.2 2.3 195.6 2.8 47.8 -0.4 12.7 5.3 103.7 -0.7

1015.6 1.4 37.8 0.7 977.9 1.4 44.5 -6.7 186.3 1.1 38.8 116.5 30.2 24 0.9 63.4 0.1 166.2 1.4 122.8 1.3 207.1 5.9 48.3 1.1 12 -5.4 103.2 -0.4

1043.4 2.7 39.2 3.9 1004.1 2.7 45.1 1.4 192.6 3.4 40.5 118.9 31.9 25.1 4.7 65 2.5 173.2 4.2 126.9 3.3 212.7 2.7 48.7 0.7 11.8 -1.7 103 -0.2

1074.7 3 40.9 4.2 1033.8 3 50.1 11 198.7 3.2 42 122.3 33.3 25.6 1.9 66.2 1.8 182.2 5.2 130.2 2.6 215.5 1.3 49 0.7 11.6 -1.7 104.7 1.6

1110.7 3.4 41.6 1.8 1069 3.4 56.8 13.4 203.4 2.4 43.3 124.2 34.6 25.9 1.1 67.1 1.4 196.7 7.9 133.9 2.9 217.2 0.8 49.6 1.1 11.5 -1.4 107 2.3

1143.3 2.9 41.9 0.6 1101.4 3 62.8 10.5 208 2.3 44.4 125.8 36 26.9 3.9 67.7 1 208.7 6.1 138 3.1 219.3 0.9 50.2 1.2 11.4 -0.5 108.4 1.3

91241 93380.7 96207.2 99633.3 2103.4 2127.3 2153.2 2185 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.5 1119.1 1123.1 1197.2 1321.1 -0.2 0.4 6.6 10.4 10.5 11.8 10.6 9.5 4684 5108 6861 13532 3835 4451 5625 10954 849 656 1236 2578

103547 2228.1 2 1437.5 8.8 8.5 19651 15837 3814

108256 2285.2 2.6 1545 7.5 7.5 23478 18216 5262

112405 2350.9 2.9 1643.8 6.4 6.7 25411 19545 5866

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

967.5 4.6 44.8 2.2 922.7 4.7 74.4 12.5 182.2 4.8 42.1 113.8 26.3 23.9 3 60.8 3.6 149.4 3.1 97.6 4 179.9 5.5 47.7 4 11.3 1.2 95.6 3

1022.8 5.7 46 2.6 976.8 5.9 84.7 13.8 193.3 6.1 44.8 120.5 28 24.8 3.9 65 7 161.5 8.1 102.5 5 184.2 2.4 50 4.9 11.9 5.2 99 3.5

1063.9 4 45 -2.2 1018.9 4.3 91.2 7.7 198.8 2.8 46.2 122.3 30.3 25.8 4.2 68.1 4.8 173.1 7.2 107.5 4.9 186.8 1.5 53.4 6.8 11.4 -3.8 102.7 3.8

1090.7 2.5 44.6 -0.8 1046.1 2.7 85.4 -6.4 204 2.6 47.2 123.7 33 26.8 3.7 68.9 1.1 181.3 4.7 112.7 4.8 193.6 3.6 55.8 4.5 11.5 0.4 106.2 3.4

82945.8 89765.4 94427.3 97337.3 95472.5 1883.9 1956.2 2014.6 2051.5 2079.4 3.6 3.8 3 1.8 1.4 963.3 1007.5 1050.4 1093.4 1121 3.1 4.6 4.3 4.1 2.5 4.4 3.5 3.1 3.8 5.9 32374 33817 30354 17975 10189 26186 26861 24302 12556 5554 6188 6956 6052 5419 4635

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O r l a n d o â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Ki s s i m m ee

Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

March 2011

2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

77.6 5.1 44.3 33.3 68.9 3.4 36.2 32.1 43.7 3

78.5 4.6 44.9 33.6 69.5 2.7 36.5 32.3 44.2 3.2

79.4 5.1 45.4 34 70 2.9 36.8 32.4 44.5 3

80.4 5.3 46.1 34.3 70.5 3.2 37.1 32.6 44.8 3.1

80.9 4.3 46.8 34.2 70.8 2.8 37.3 32.6 45.1 3.3

82 4.5 47.4 34.6 71.5 3 37.6 32.8 45.4 2.8

83.2 4.8 48 35.2 72.2 3.2 38 33 45.7 2.7

84.4 5 48.7 35.7 72.9 3.4 38.4 33.2 46 2.6

85.5 5.6 49.3 36.2 73.7 4.1 38.7 33.3 46.3 2.6

86.7 5.7 50 36.7 74.4 4 39 33.5 46.6 2.6

88 5.7 50.7 37.2 75.1 4 39.4 33.6 46.8 2.5

89.3 5.8 51.5 37.8 75.9 4.1 39.7 33.8 47.1 2.5

91.1 6.5 52.2 38.8 77.1 4.6 40.3 34.1 47.4 2.5

92.6 6.7 53 39.6 78 4.8 40.7 34.2 47.7 2.4

1031.9 2.2 38.5 2.9 993.4 2.2 44 -2.6 190 2.7 40 117.5 31.3 24.8 5.2 64.3 1.9 170.8 3.9 125.3 2.9 210.8 2.5 48.7 1.1 11.9 -1.5 102.8 -0.8

1039.5 2.7 39 3.6 1000.5 2.6 44.6 0 191.9 3.5 40.4 118.6 31.7 24.9 5.5 64.7 2.4 172.2 4.1 126.4 3.5 212.5 2.8 48.6 0.6 11.9 -1.7 102.8 -0.6

1047.3 3 39.5 4.2 1007.8 2.9 45.4 2.6 193.4 3.7 40.7 119.4 32.1 25.1 4.2 65.3 3 174 4.4 127.4 3.5 213.6 3 48.7 0.6 11.8 -1.7 103 0

1054.8 3.1 40 4.8 1014.8 3 46.5 5.7 195.1 3.6 41.1 120.3 32.5 25.5 3.8 65.7 2.9 175.7 4.3 128.4 3.3 214.1 2.6 48.8 0.5 11.7 -1.9 103.3 0.6

1061.8 2.9 40.4 5 1021.4 2.8 47.7 8.6 196.5 3.4 41.4 121 32.8 25.6 3.1 65.9 2.5 177.7 4.1 128.7 2.7 214.9 1.9 48.9 0.5 11.7 -1.8 103.7 0.9

1069.4 2.9 40.8 4.6 1028.6 2.8 49.2 10.3 198 3.2 41.8 121.9 33.1 25.5 2.3 66 2 180 4.5 129.8 2.7 215.2 1.3 48.9 0.7 11.6 -1.7 104.3 1.4

1079.1 3 41 4 1038 3 50.8 11.9 199.6 3.2 42.2 122.8 33.5 25.6 1.9 66.2 1.4 183.8 5.6 130.7 2.6 215.6 1 49.1 0.8 11.6 -1.7 105 1.9

1088.4 3.2 41.3 3.3 1047.1 3.2 52.6 13.2 200.7 2.9 42.5 123.3 33.9 25.7 0.6 66.6 1.4 187.4 6.6 131.5 2.4 216.2 1 49.2 0.9 11.6 -1.6 105.6 2.2

1097.5 3.4 41.4 2.5 1056 3.4 54.4 14 201.8 2.7 42.8 123.7 34.2 25.7 0.3 66.8 1.3 191.1 7.5 132.7 3.1 216.5 0.8 49.3 0.8 11.5 -1.6 106.3 2.5

1106.5 3.5 41.6 1.9 1064.9 3.5 56.1 14 202.9 2.5 43.1 124 34.5 25.7 1 66.9 1.5 194.9 8.3 133.7 2.9 216.9 0.8 49.5 1.1 11.5 -1.5 106.8 2.4

97445 98202.8 99076.8 2163.8 2171.8 2180 1.3 1.3 1.4 1245.1 1275.9 1305.9 10.5 10.8 10.6 10.2 9.8 9.5 8584 10211 12483 6982 8341 10017 1602 1870 2466

100071 2189.3 1.5 1336.5 10.3 9.3 14873 12043 2829

101183 2199 1.6 1366.2 9.7 9.1 16563 13415 3147

101885 2209.6 1.7 1395.3 9.4 8.9 17517 14248 3269

102953 2221.4 1.9 1423.6 9 8.6 19166 15567 3599

104130 2233.9 2 1451.6 8.6 8.4 20402 16467 3935

105221 2247.5 2.2 1479.5 8.3 8.1 21520 17065 4455

106521 2261.7 2.4 1506.7 8 7.8 22316 17454 4863

107734 2276.7 2.5 1532.6 7.7 7.6 23171 18011 5160

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1009.7 1.7 37.4 -0.4 972.3 1.8 45.1 -6.4 185.1 0.8 38.1 117.1 29.7 23.6 -1.3 63.1 0.5 164.3 0.7 121.7 0.9 205.6 8.2 48.2 1.8 12.1 -0.2 103.6 0.1

1012.5 0.9 37.6 0.1 974.9 1 44.6 -8.7 185.5 0.2 38.5 116.5 29.8 23.6 -0.2 63.2 0.1 165.4 0.3 122.1 0.6 206.7 6.6 48.3 1.3 12.1 -14.9 103.4 0.4

1016.9 1.3 37.9 0.8 979 1.4 44.3 -7.2 186.5 0.8 39.1 116 30.3 24.1 1.6 63.5 -0.3 166.7 1.8 123.1 1.4 207.4 5.8 48.4 0.7 12 -4.7 103 -1.1

95078.4 95812.1 96493.3 2142.9 2149.6 2156.5 1.1 1.2 1.2 1151.4 1180.3 1212 2.8 5.1 8 10.9 10.9 10.6 5299 6299 7262 4356 5185 5978 942 1114 1284

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

1023.5 1.7 38.1 2.3 985.3 1.7 44 -4.5 188.2 2.4 39.6 116.6 30.8 24.6 3.5 63.8 0.1 168.5 2.9 124.3 2.4 208.7 3.1 48.5 0.8 12 -0.1 102.8 -1.1

P a l m B a y – Me l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e

P r o fi l e s The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is comprised of Brevard County only. Typically known as “Florida’s Space Coast,” this area is home to the Kennedy Space Center. Located in the central part of Florida’s east coast, the region is home to Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, Patrick Air Force Base, and government contractors such as Harris Corporation. Like much of Florida, this area is growing fast; Port Canaveral is now a leading cruise-ship port. Quick Facts:

• Population estimate of 543,376 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 262,984 in February 2011 (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• An unemployment rate of 11.4% as of February 2011, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 30,078 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is expected to see moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 4.5 percent each year. Per capita income levels should average 35.8. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.1 percent, the second highest. Average annual wage levels should be at 51.9. Population growth is expected to be an average of 1.1 percent, and the Gross Metro Product level is expected to be 17,191.65 (Mill). Employment growth is forecasted to average 1.0 percent each year, the lowest of the MSAs. The metro will be seeing an average unemployment rate of 10.3 percent. Construction and Mining is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 5.6 percent growth annually. The Manufacturing sector follows with a 1.9 percent average annual growth rate. The Information, Professional and Business Services, and Federal Government sectors will experience a decline of -0.4, -0.4, and -5.0 percent, respectively.

• Brevard County Schools – 8535 employees • Harris Corporation – 6391 employees

• United Space Alliance – 6300 employees • Health First, Inc. – 6000 employees • 45th Space Wing – 4174 employees

• Space Gateway Support – 3000 employees • Brevard County – 2500 employees

• Wuesthoff Health System, Inc. – 2400 employees • Northrop Grumman Corporation – 2000 employees • The Boeing Co. – 1962 employees • NASA – 1577 employees

Source: Economic Development of Florida’s Space Coast

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Titusville OKs 3-tiered utility deposit plan • Titusville City Water is charging “risky” customers with higher rates and deposits. This new deposit plan was enacted due to the increasing amount of delinquencies among customers. The rate of delinquencies has risen from $300,000 to $1.4M since 2008. • After three years, clients in good standing will collect their deposits. City Water will not require customers to get a credit report on their own time. Source: Florida Today, January 11, 2011

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P a l m B a y – Me l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e

Brevard teachers unhappy with bonus plan • Teachers of Brevard Schools have been under a pay freeze for 3 years. The school board announced that $2.7M of a $23M stimulus fund will be used for bonuses. This equates to about $400-$600 in bonuses. • Brevard Public Schools are preparing for the $41M in stimulus money to be gone by the end of the year. The Schools have had trouble coping with the new class size rules that went into effect at the beginning of the year. Source: Florida Today, January 13, 2011 Harris Corporation awarded $300 million contract from international customer for tactical radio modernization • An International customer has asked Harris Corporation to produce military radios to communicate encrypted data and information during military situations. • Harris is among the top producers of military radios and encrypted communication. They have sold their products to militaries, governments and corporations in 160 countries. • Some of their devices include embedded GPSs and programmable software abilities. Source: United Business Media: PR Newswire, January 16, 2011 NASA gears up for final Endeavor flight • The six-manned shuttle is set to fly its last flight. Endeavor has been on 25 flights, but this may be one of its most exciting missions. • A $1.5 billion dollar Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer was loaded on to the shuttle. This device will be used to detect cosmic rays. It will look for antimatter and dark matter in space.

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

• This 15,000 pound piece of cargo will fly with the shuttle. Accompanying this will be spare parts, communications antennas, a high pressure gas tank, and extra parts for a robot named Dextre. • This is the 134th shuttle flight. NASA’s last shuttle mission is scheduled for June 28. Source: Florida Today, March 22, 2011 Viera’s growth spurred need for new hospital • Viera Hospital, run by the nonprofit organization Health First, will open at the end of March in one of the fastest-growing areas of the county. • The 100-bed, $166 million Viera Hospital is opening six months after Health Management Associates, a for-profit chain, purchased Wuesthoff Health System for $145 million. • The convenient location of the new hospital, between the two hospitals run by Health Management Associates, could potentially draw 30 percent of patients away from its competitor. Source: Florida Today, March 22, 2011

P a l m B a y â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Me l b o u r n e â&#x20AC;&#x201C; T itu s v i l l e Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

1.5

(percent)

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Palm Bay Unemployment Rate

19000.0 18000.0 17000.0 16000.0 15000.0 14000.0 13000.0 12000.0 11000.0

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Payroll Employment 220.0

(Thousands)

210.0 200.0 190.0 180.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Palm Bay Payroll Employment

2.5

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Unemployment Rate 14.0%

(Millions 2000 $)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Gross Metro Product

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Personal Income 15.0% 12.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% -3.0% -6.0%

(percent change year ago)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P a l m B a y – Me l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

March 2011

Personal Income (Billions $)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

16.3 8.1 8.2 8.1 16.8 5.4 31.4 32.3 39.8 5.5

17.6 7.8 8.9 8.7 17.6 4.7 33.2 33.2 41.6 4.5

18.9 7.5 9.4 9.5 18.4 4.6 35.4 34.4 42.8 2.9

19.7 4.2 9.5 10.2 18.7 1.4 36.6 34.7 43.8 2.5

20.4 3.4 9.5 10.8 18.7 0.1 37.7 34.6 45.2 3.2

20.3 -0.2 9.3 11 18.6 -0.4 37.6 34.4 46.5 2.9

20.9 2.9 9.5 11.5 18.8 1.2 38.7 34.8 48 3

21.5 3 9.5 12 19 1.1 39.7 35 49.6 3.3

22.3 3.4 9.9 12.4 19.4 1.9 40.6 35.3 51.2 3.2

23.4 5.1 10.5 12.9 20 3.4 42.1 36 52.7 2.9

24.9 6.3 11.1 13.8 20.9 4.4 44 37 54.1 2.8

26.5 6.4 11.6 14.9 21.9 4.7 46.1 38.1 55.6 2.8

207.4 -3 23.7 -1.6 183.6 -3.2 13 -15.4 35.5 -3.8 5.5 26.8 3.1 2.9 2.3 8.3 -3.4 34.5 -6.3 30.6 4.7 21.9 -4.2 7.9 -1.5 6.2 0 22.8 0

196.8 -5.1 21.8 -8 175 -4.7 9.9 -23.8 33 -6.8 5.2 24.9 2.9 3 4 7.9 -4.8 32.3 -6.4 31.2 1.9 21 -4 7.4 -5.7 6.3 1.3 22.8 -0.1

194.2 -1.3 20.6 -5.8 173.7 -0.7 8.6 -13.3 32.7 -1 5.1 24.6 3 2.8 -7.4 7.7 -3.1 32 -1.2 32 2.5 20.9 -0.7 7.8 4.6 6.7 7.2 22.6 -0.9

188.7 -2.9 20 -2.7 168.7 -2.9 8.2 -4.9 32.6 -0.5 5.2 24.2 3.1 2.6 -7.8 7.6 -0.3 28.1 -12 32.4 1.3 20.9 0.3 7.9 1.7 6.1 -9.6 22.3 -1.4

190.3 0.9 20.7 3.6 169.6 0.5 8.4 2.4 33.4 2.7 5.4 24.6 3.3 2.6 0.2 7.9 2.9 27 -4.1 33.1 2.1 21.4 2.3 8 1.1 5.8 -5.4 22.2 -0.6

196 3 21.7 4.6 174.3 2.8 9.3 11.3 34.4 2.9 5.6 25.1 3.4 2.7 3.9 8 1.9 28.8 6.7 33.5 1.3 21.6 0.9 8 0.8 5.6 -2.7 22.4 1.2

201.6 2.9 22.1 1.9 179.5 3 10.6 13.4 35 1.7 5.9 25.4 3.6 2.8 2.3 8.1 1.1 31.1 8 34.1 1.7 21.6 0.1 8.1 0.6 5.5 -2.4 22.8 1.7

206.4 2.4 22.3 0.7 184.1 2.6 11.6 9.6 35.5 1.5 6 25.5 3.7 2.9 4.7 8.1 0.4 33.1 6.6 34.8 2.1 21.7 0.3 8.1 0.4 5.4 -1.5 23 0.8

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

204 3.6 23.6 3.8 180.4 3.6 14.8 13.6 35.5 3.7 4.7 27.2 3.6 2.8 -0.9 7.8 5.8 34.5 2.2 26.8 0.3 21.1 4.4 8.4 1.6 5.9 3.9 22.9 3.3

211 3.4 23.9 1.2 187.1 3.7 17.2 16.2 37.1 4.5 5.2 28 3.8 2.9 6 8.4 7.8 36 4.3 27.3 1.8 21.8 3.3 8.1 -2.8 6.1 1.9 22.2 -2.8

216.3 2.5 24.6 2.7 191.8 2.5 18.1 5 37.4 1 5.5 28.3 3.6 2.9 0.1 8.6 2.4 37.3 3.6 28.2 3.1 22.5 3.3 8.1 -0.8 6.2 1.6 22.6 1.7

213.8 -1.2 24.1 -1.8 189.7 -1.1 15.4 -15 36.9 -1.5 5.6 28 3.3 2.9 -2.6 8.6 0.3 36.8 -1.1 29.3 4 22.8 1.5 8 -1.1 6.2 0.5 22.8 1.1

15314.2 16264.2 16880.1 16839.4 16473.3 16075.1 16389.5 16374.9 16756.9 17452.5 18182.3 18789.7 519.1 528.9 534 538.2 540.4 540.8 540.6 542.9 548.4 556.2 565.6 575.3 2.5 1.9 1 0.8 0.4 0.1 0 0.4 1 1.4 1.7 1.7 247.6 258.3 263 264.3 268.4 268.8 268 274.7 289.8 303.6 315.7 326.8 2.3 4.3 1.8 0.5 1.5 0.2 -0.3 2.5 5.5 4.8 4 3.5 4.4 3.6 3.2 4.2 6.5 10.5 12 11.6 10.8 9.9 8.8 8 8202 8465 5334 2817 1765 997 1133 1403 2871 4455 5318 5709 6309 7198 4371 2209 1282 886 1015 1159 2564 3938 4506 4743 1893 1267 963 608 483 111 118 243 308 517 812 966

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

P a l m B a y – Me l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

March 2011

2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

21.4 3.6 9.5 11.9 19 2 39.5 35 48.8 3.1

21.5 2.6 9.5 12 19 0.7 39.6 35.1 49.4 3.4

21.5 2.7 9.4 12.1 19 0.5 39.6 34.9 49.8 3.4

21.8 3.2 9.6 12.2 19.1 1.1 40 35.1 50.2 3.4

21.9 2.2 9.7 12.2 19.1 0.7 40 35 50.6 3.7

22.1 3 9.8 12.3 19.3 1.5 40.4 35.2 51 3.2

22.4 4.1 10 12.5 19.5 2.6 40.8 35.4 51.3 3.1

22.7 4.4 10.1 12.6 19.6 2.9 41.2 35.6 51.7 2.9

23 5.2 10.2 12.7 19.8 3.6 41.6 35.8 52.1 3

23.3 5.1 10.4 12.9 20 3.4 41.9 36 52.5 2.9

23.5 5 10.5 13 20.1 3.3 42.3 36.1 52.8 2.9

23.8 5 10.7 13.2 20.3 3.3 42.6 36.3 53.2 2.8

24.3 5.8 10.9 13.5 20.6 4 43.3 36.6 53.6 2.8

24.7 6.1 11 13.7 20.8 4.2 43.7 36.8 53.9 2.8

188.2 -1.6 20.3 1 167.9 -2 8.1 -1 33 1.7 5.3 24.3 3.2 2.5 -5.9 7.8 2.4 26.5 -14 32.8 2.3 21.2 2.1 8 1.4 5.8 -8.9 22.1 -1.1

189.6 0.1 20.6 3.1 169 -0.3 8.3 0.9 33.3 2.7 5.4 24.5 3.3 2.6 -4.8 7.8 2.7 26.8 -7.7 33 2.4 21.4 2.3 8 1 5.8 -6.8 22.1 -1

191 2.3 20.9 4.7 170.1 2 8.4 3.3 33.6 3.1 5.4 24.6 3.3 2.6 6.2 7.9 3.2 27.1 2.7 33.1 2 21.5 2.5 8 1 5.7 -2.6 22.1 -0.5

192.4 2.8 21.1 5.6 171.3 2.4 8.6 6.5 33.8 3.2 5.5 24.8 3.3 2.7 6.1 8 3.1 27.5 4.5 33.3 1.6 21.5 2.2 8 0.8 5.7 -2.7 22.2 0.1

193.8 2.9 21.5 5.8 172.3 2.6 8.9 9.3 34 3.1 5.5 24.9 3.4 2.7 5.5 8 2.6 28 5.5 33.3 1.3 21.6 1.6 8 0.9 5.7 -2.6 22.2 0.4

195.3 3 21.7 5.1 173.6 2.7 9.1 10.7 34.3 2.9 5.6 25.1 3.4 2.7 4.3 8 2 28.4 6.3 33.5 1.4 21.6 0.9 8 0.9 5.6 -2.7 22.3 1

196.8 3 21.8 4.2 175 2.9 9.4 12 34.5 2.9 5.7 25.2 3.4 2.7 3.7 8 1.4 29 7.1 33.6 1.4 21.6 0.6 8 0.8 5.6 -2.7 22.5 1.5

198.3 3 21.9 3.4 176.4 3 9.8 13.3 34.7 2.6 5.7 25.3 3.5 2.7 2 8.1 1.3 29.6 7.7 33.7 1.2 21.6 0.5 8.1 0.7 5.5 -2.7 22.6 1.8

199.8 3.1 22 2.6 177.8 3.2 10.1 14 34.8 2.4 5.8 25.3 3.5 2.7 1.8 8.1 1.2 30.2 8.1 33.9 1.9 21.6 0.3 8.1 0.5 5.5 -2.6 22.7 2

201.1 3 22.1 1.9 179 3.1 10.4 14 34.9 1.9 5.8 25.3 3.5 2.7 2.3 8.1 1.2 30.8 8.4 34 1.7 21.6 0.1 8.1 0.7 5.5 -2.5 22.8 2

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

191.4 -1.4 20.1 -4.1 171.3 -1.1 8.2 -5.6 32.5 -0.4 5.1 24.3 3 2.7 -6.1 7.6 -1.9 30.8 -3.6 32.1 0.6 20.8 1.3 7.9 4.4 6.4 -2.8 22.4 -1.5

189.5 -3.4 20 -3.7 169.5 -3.4 8.2 -7.6 32.5 -0.7 5.1 24.1 3.1 2.7 -5.6 7.6 -2 29 -10.7 32.2 0.2 20.9 -1.3 7.9 2.4 6.2 -14 22.3 -0.9

186.7 -4 20 -2.1 166.7 -4.3 8.2 -4.6 32.5 -1.2 5.2 24 3.1 2.5 -11.8 7.7 0.5 26.4 -17.7 32.5 1.9 21 -0.2 7.9 0.1 5.9 -12 22.3 -1.9

187.2 -2.6 20 -0.8 167.2 -2.8 8.1 -1.4 32.8 0.4 5.3 24.1 3.2 2.5 -7.9 7.7 2.4 26.3 -16.1 32.7 2.4 21.1 1.5 7.9 0.1 5.9 -9.3 22.2 -1.2

16459.6 16419.5 16245.9 16374.6 16489.2 16656.8 16839.2 17042.5 17176.4 541.5 542.3 543.3 544.5 545.8 547.5 549.3 551.1 553 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 269.3 272.6 276.4 280.5 284.2 288 291.7 295.1 298.5 0 1.6 3.6 4.9 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.2 5 11.7 11.8 11.7 11.3 11.2 10.9 10.7 10.6 10.4 1032 1241 1504 1834 2192 2612 3143 3538 3939 779 1007 1269 1582 1928 2315 2838 3172 3523 253 234 235 252 264 297 305 366 416

17366 17549.9 17717.7 17931.7 18110.5 555 557.2 559.4 561.9 564.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 302.1 305.4 308.6 311.5 314.3 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.4 4 10.1 9.8 9.4 9.2 8.9 4341 4638 4901 5067 5258 3865 4097 4266 4344 4472 476 541 635 722 786

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

P r o fi l e s The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is comprised of Escambia County and Santa Rosa County. Located in the northwest corner of the state bordering Alabama, this region is home to the Pensacola Naval Air Station, Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval Aviation. This area has been referred to as the “Cradle of Naval Aviation.” QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 448,991 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Escambia County population estimate of 297,619 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Santa Rosa County population estimate of 151,372 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 209,864 in February 2011 (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• An unemployment rate of 10.3% as of February 2011, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 21,564 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Database) TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Local Government – 15,790 employees • Federal Government – 7,403 employees • State Government – 5,970 employees

• Sacred Heart Health System – 5,000 employees • Baptist Heath Care – 3,163 employees • Lakeview – 2,000 employees

• Gulf Power Company – 1,400 employees • Solutia, Inc. – 1,400 employees

• West Florida Hospital – 1,300 employees

• University of West Florida – 1,231 employees Source: Greater Pensacola Chamber of Commerce

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is expected to see low levels of growth in the economic indicators, relative to other metro areas. Personal income growth is expected to average 4.4 percent each year. The per capita income level is expected to be 33.3. The average annual wage growth rate should be at 2.7 percent. The average annual wage level is expected to be 44.8. Population growth will be at a rate of 1.0 percent. The Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 14,350.68 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to average 1.8 percent each year. The unemployment rate will average 9.2 percent, one of the lowest in the studied metro areas.

Construction and Mining will be the fastest growing sector in Pensacola, with 5.7 percent average annual growth. Professional and Business Services follows with a growth rate of 4.9 percent. The Federal Government sector is expected to decrease with an average annual growth rate of -3.8 percent.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s BP funds legal group to help spill victims • Legal Services of North Florida, a local legal aid group, has been funded by the Gulf Coast Claims Facility, the agency hired by BP to oversee financial claims from the BP oil spill, to offer legal advice to poor clients seeking reimbursements. • In order to qualify, a person must be within 300 percent of the federal poverty guidelines; which translates to $66,150 annually for a family of four. • The services range from filling out paperwork to representing the client before the claims facility. • The Gulf Coast Claims Facility is funded with $20 billion of BP money. Source: Pensacola News Journal, January 30, 2011

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

UWF revealing oil’s reach

UWF told to drop maritime museum plans

• The Center for Environmental Diagnostics and Bioremediation at the University of West Florida is conducting research to determine how much oil remains in the Gulf and its impact on the ecosystem.

• According to a consultant hired by the university, the University of West Florida should stop its fundraising efforts for a $35 million maritime museum and research center at the Community Maritime Park.

• One lab studies coquina, and claims to find oil molecules which can be used to decode whether the oil molecules come from the BP oil spill or from other source. Another lab studies oil-eating bacteria that degrade oil in water and sand.

• The recommendation suggests the creation of a nonprofit, independent from the university, to start a new fundraising campaign. Fundraising efforts have only raised $3.4 million so far.

• The Bioremediation Center and UWF’s science department received $600,000 from BP to study the effects of the oil and $50,000 additional money from other sources. Source: Pensacola News Journal, February 20, 2011 Santa Rosa Transit trying to get hold • Ridership has been increasing since the Santa Rosa Transit system started its operations in November 2010. The system currently services a 23-mile route of U.S. 90. • Funding came from a federal grant of about $250,000 and the Santa Rosa County Commission covers $33,000 of operating expenses. The program is funded for one year and future funding is not guaranteed. • The transit system is not focused on generating revenue, currently the volume is not enough to cover costs; its focus is to create access to jobs. Source: Pensacola News Journal, February 24, 2011

• The future of the project will be decided by the university’s board of trustees, who will meet at the end of March to discuss the consultant’s recommendations. Source: Pensacola News Journal, March 11, 2011 Santa Rosa sets growth pace • According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Santa Rosa County continues to be one of the fastestgrowing counties in Florida. • From 2000 to 2010 Santa Rosa’s population growth rate was almost 29 percent. Only 18 counties in Florida grew by more than 25 percent. • Escambia County had a population growth rate of about 1 percent. • In Florida, only two counties lost population since the previous census was gathered, Monroe County and Pinellas County. Source: Pensacola News Journal, March 18, 2011

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P e n s ac o l a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; F e r r y P a s s â&#x20AC;&#x201C; B r e n t Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation,Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

1.4

Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product 16000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

12000.0

4.0%

11000.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL Unemployment Rate Pensacola Unemployment Rate

10000.0

Pensacola Payroll Employment (Thousands)

170.0 165.0 160.0 155.0

1.2

13000.0

6.0%

150.0

14000.0

8.0%

175.0

0.8

15000.0

10.0%

2.0%

0.6

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Pensacola Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Gross Metro Product

Pensacola Real Personal Income 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Personal Income

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

March 2011

Personal Income (Billions $)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

12.1 7.9 5.9 6.2 12.5 5.1 27.5 28.3 33.5 5.9

13 7.2 6.3 6.7 13 4.1 29.1 29.1 34.8 3.9

14.1 8.6 6.8 7.4 13.8 5.7 31.3 30.4 36.6 5.1

14.8 5.1 7 7.9 14.1 2.3 32.7 31 37.5 2.7

15.5 4.4 7 8.5 14.2 1 33.9 31.1 38.9 3.6

15.8 1.7 6.9 8.8 14.4 1.5 34.3 31.4 40.5 4.2

16.4 4 7.2 9.2 14.7 2.2 35.6 32 41.8 3.1

17.1 4.2 7.4 9.6 15.1 2.3 36.9 32.6 43.1 3.1

17.7 3.4 7.8 9.9 15.4 1.9 37.8 32.9 44.3 2.8

18.4 4.4 8.1 10.3 15.8 2.7 39 33.4 45.4 2.5

19.5 5.7 8.5 11 16.4 3.7 40.6 34.2 46.5 2.4

20.6 5.8 8.9 11.7 17 4 42.4 35 47.6 2.4

165.2 -4.3 6.5 -7.9 158.8 -4.2 12.7 -14.1 32.3 -4.5 6.1 21.3 4.9 3.5 -2.6 8.8 -3.7 18.6 -7.2 28.8 -1.4 17.9 -0.4 7.3 -6.4 6.5 -0.8 22.3 -1.8

157.1 -4.9 5.4 -16.7 151.7 -4.5 10.6 -16.2 30.1 -6.8 5.4 20.1 4.6 3.2 -6.8 8.6 -2.8 17.9 -3.7 28.6 -0.9 17.6 -1.8 6.7 -8.5 6.5 0.3 21.9 -2.1

157.7 0.4 5.4 -0.5 152.3 0.4 10.2 -3.9 29.1 -3.3 5 20 4.1 3.3 1.6 8.4 -2.2 19 6.2 29.3 2.5 17.6 0.2 6.3 -4.9 7.2 10 21.8 -0.1

158.3 0.4 5.4 1 152.9 0.4 10 -2.2 28.9 -0.7 5 19.6 4.2 3.2 -1.2 8.5 1.6 19.4 1.6 29.9 2.2 18.2 3.4 6.3 -0.1 6.7 -7 21.7 -0.4

161 1.7 5.6 2.7 155.4 1.7 10.2 1.8 29.6 2.6 5.2 20 4.4 3.4 4.6 8.7 2.4 20.1 3.9 30.4 1.7 18.6 2.2 6.4 0.9 6.5 -2.7 21.5 -1.3

164.9 2.4 5.8 3.3 159.1 2.4 11.2 10.6 30.4 2.6 5.4 20.4 4.5 3.5 2.4 8.9 1.4 21.4 6.3 30.7 0.9 18.7 0.7 6.4 0.7 6.3 -2.8 21.6 0.5

169 2.5 5.8 1.2 163.2 2.6 12.6 12.6 30.8 1.5 5.5 20.5 4.7 3.5 1.1 8.9 0.6 23 7.7 31.1 1.3 18.7 -0.1 6.5 0.4 6.2 -2.6 21.8 1.2

172.4 2 5.8 0.1 166.6 2.1 13.8 8.8 31.2 1.1 5.6 20.6 4.8 3.6 3.3 8.9 -0.1 24.5 6.4 31.5 1.4 18.7 0 6.5 0.2 6.1 -1.7 21.9 0.1

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

162.4 2.9 7.3 -1.3 155.1 3.1 11.6 7.8 31.2 3.2 5.6 21.1 4.5 3.9 -4.4 7.5 9.9 19.4 8.2 27.3 -0.3 17.7 4.7 7.9 0.9 6.7 -2.1 21.8 1

168.2 3.6 7.5 3.1 160.7 3.6 13.9 19.4 33.1 6.1 6.2 21.9 5 3.8 -4.7 8.2 9.9 20.9 8 26.6 -2.8 17.6 -0.9 7.8 -1.6 6.7 -0.5 22.2 2

12386.7 13036.7 442.3 447.6 1.5 1.2 193.8 201.5 1.4 4 4.6 3.7 4713 3782 3629 3284 1084 498

172.7 2.6 7.4 -1.4 165.2 2.8 15.4 10.4 33 -0.2 6.2 21.8 5 3.8 0.7 8.9 8.4 21 0.6 28.1 5.8 18 2.4 7.8 0 6.7 0.4 22.5 1.4

172.7 0 7 -5.3 165.7 0.3 14.7 -3.9 33.8 2.4 6.7 22.2 4.9 3.6 -5.8 9.2 3 20 -4.7 29.3 4.1 18 -0.1 7.8 -0.5 6.6 -2.5 22.7 1

13498 13637.6 13265.3 12932.3 13398.7 13734.1 14098.9 14535.6 15034.1 15430.4 452.1 453.9 456.9 459.2 460.5 462.3 466.8 472.5 479.2 486.4 1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.4 1 1.2 1.4 1.5 205.9 209.4 208.9 210.5 213.2 220.7 233.1 244.1 252.9 260.8 2.2 1.7 -0.2 0.8 1.3 3.5 5.6 4.7 3.6 3.1 3.1 3.7 5.8 9.6 10.8 10.5 9.8 8.8 7.8 7 2777 2468 1332 1026 1757 1295 1757 2380 2699 2817 2322 1780 1125 974 1396 1247 1604 2119 2400 2515 455 688 207 52 361 48 153 261 300 303

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

March 2011

2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

16.8 4.4 7.3 9.5 14.9 2.7 36.5 32.4 42.5 3

17 4 7.4 9.6 15 2.1 36.8 32.6 42.9 3.2

17.1 4.2 7.5 9.7 15.1 2.1 37.1 32.7 43.3 3.1

17.3 4.3 7.6 9.8 15.2 2.2 37.3 32.8 43.6 3

17.4 3.1 7.6 9.7 15.2 1.6 37.4 32.7 43.9 3.3

17.6 3.4 7.7 9.8 15.3 1.8 37.7 32.8 44.1 2.8

17.8 3.6 7.8 10 15.4 2 38 33 44.4 2.7

18 3.7 7.9 10.1 15.5 2.2 38.3 33.1 44.7 2.5

18.1 4.5 8 10.2 15.6 2.9 38.6 33.2 45 2.5

18.3 4.4 8.1 10.2 15.7 2.7 38.9 33.3 45.3 2.5

18.5 4.3 8.2 10.3 15.8 2.7 39.1 33.4 45.5 2.5

18.7 4.3 8.3 10.5 15.9 2.6 39.4 33.6 45.8 2.4

19.1 5.2 8.4 10.7 16.1 3.3 40 33.9 46.1 2.4

19.3 5.5 8.5 10.9 16.3 3.5 40.4 34 46.3 2.4

159.6 1.2 5.5 1.8 154.1 1.1 9.9 -1.6 29.3 1.7 5.1 19.8 4.3 3.3 4.4 8.7 1.9 19.8 3.3 30.2 1.9 18.5 2 6.4 1.3 6.6 -2.5 21.5 -1.8

160.5 1.6 5.6 2.5 155 1.6 10 0.3 29.5 2.6 5.2 19.9 4.4 3.4 5.3 8.7 2.2 20 3.9 30.4 1.9 18.6 2.2 6.4 0.9 6.5 -2.6 21.5 -1.6

161.4 1.9 5.6 3 155.8 1.8 10.2 2.7 29.7 2.9 5.2 20 4.4 3.4 4.4 8.8 2.7 20.2 4.1 30.4 1.6 18.7 2.4 6.4 0.9 6.5 -2.8 21.5 -1.1

162.4 2.1 5.7 3.6 156.7 2.1 10.4 5.8 30 3 5.3 20.1 4.4 3.5 4.3 8.8 2.6 20.5 4.5 30.5 1.2 18.7 2.1 6.4 0.7 6.4 -2.9 21.5 -0.6

163.2 2.2 5.7 3.9 157.5 2.2 10.7 8.6 30.1 2.8 5.3 20.2 4.5 3.5 3.8 8.8 2.1 20.8 5.2 30.5 0.9 18.7 1.4 6.4 0.7 6.4 -2.8 21.5 -0.2

164.3 2.3 5.8 3.6 158.5 2.3 11 9.9 30.3 2.6 5.3 20.3 4.5 3.5 2.8 8.8 1.5 21.1 5.9 30.7 1 18.7 0.7 6.4 0.8 6.4 -2.8 21.5 0.3

165.4 2.5 5.8 3 159.7 2.5 11.4 11.2 30.5 2.6 5.4 20.4 4.6 3.5 2.2 8.9 0.9 21.6 6.7 30.7 1 18.7 0.4 6.4 0.7 6.3 -2.8 21.6 0.8

166.5 2.5 5.8 2.5 160.7 2.5 11.8 12.5 30.6 2.2 5.4 20.5 4.6 3.5 0.8 8.9 0.9 22 7.2 30.8 0.8 18.8 0.3 6.4 0.5 6.3 -2.8 21.7 1.2

167.7 2.7 5.8 1.8 161.9 2.8 12.2 13.2 30.7 2.1 5.5 20.5 4.7 3.5 0.6 8.9 0.7 22.4 7.6 31 1.5 18.8 0.2 6.5 0.4 6.2 -2.7 21.8 1.5

168.6 2.6 5.8 1.2 162.8 2.7 12.5 13.1 30.8 1.6 5.5 20.5 4.7 3.5 1.1 8.9 0.7 22.8 8 31 1.2 18.7 -0.1 6.5 0.5 6.2 -2.7 21.8 1.4

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

157.8 0.7 5.4 0.3 152.4 0.7 10.1 1.6 28.8 -1.9 4.9 19.7 4.1 3.2 -3.4 8.5 0.1 19.2 3.4 29.7 1.6 18.1 3.2 6.3 -2 6.8 -3.6 21.9 1.5

158 0.2 5.4 0.2 152.6 0.2 10 0.9 28.8 -1.4 5 19.6 4.1 3.2 -1.4 8.5 2 19.2 0.7 29.8 2.5 18.2 3.3 6.3 -1 6.7 -13.3 21.8 0.7

158.4 0.1 5.4 2.1 153 0.1 10 -8.7 28.9 -0.5 5 19.6 4.2 3.3 -0.9 8.5 2.5 19.4 0.3 30 2.7 18.2 5.2 6.3 0.9 6.7 -6.3 21.7 -1.6

13605.2 13689.6 13768.6 461.1 461.7 462.6 0.2 0.3 0.4 216.1 219 222.3 0.9 2.8 4.8 10.5 10.6 10.5 1207 1282 1312 1203 1228 1255 4 54 58

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

159 0.7 5.5 1.6 153.6 0.6 9.9 -1.7 29.1 0.9 5.1 19.6 4.2 3.3 0.8 8.6 1.8 19.6 2.1 30.2 1.8 18.3 2.2 6.4 1.8 6.6 -3.9 21.6 -2.1

13873 13933.4 14033.8 14147.3 14280.9 14350.5 14475.9 14602.1 14713.9 14864.1 14987.8 463.6 464.8 466.1 467.4 468.8 470.2 471.7 473.3 474.9 476.6 478.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 225.6 228.5 231.6 234.7 237.7 240.5 243 245.4 247.7 249.8 251.9 5.6 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.2 4.9 4.6 4.2 3.9 3.7 10.2 10.1 9.8 9.6 9.4 9.2 9 8.7 8.4 8.1 7.9 1379 1511 1668 1846 2005 2162 2330 2468 2561 2614 2679 1301 1408 1527 1677 1804 1931 2079 2195 2272 2313 2380 78 103 141 168 202 231 251 273 289 301 299

T a l l aha s s ee

P r o fi l e s The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla counties. It is located between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State University and Florida A&M University. Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 367,413 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Gadsden County population estimate of 46,389 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Jefferson County population estimate of 14,761 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Leon County population estimate of 275,487 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Wakulla County population estimate of 30,776 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 192,969 in February 2011 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 8.2% as of February 2011, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 15,842 unemployed people for the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • State Government (all departments) – 46,800 employees • Florida State University- 8,784 employees • Tallahassee Memorial Healthcare – 3,480 employees • Florida A&M University – 3,468 employees • City of Tallahassee – 2,633 employees • Federal Government (all departments) – 2,100 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 2,000 employees • Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – 1,900 employees • Leon County – 1522 employees

• Tallahassee Community College – 1090 employees

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Tallahassee MSA is expected to show minimal growth in the economic indicators relative to other metro areas included in this forecast. The area should see personal income growth averaging 4.6 percent each year. Per capita income levels should average 32.5. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.1 percent, the second highest of the twelve metropolitan areas studied. The average annual wage level will be 44.4. Population growth will be at 1.0 percent, and the Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 13,896.20(Mill).

Employment growth is expected to be 1.4 percent each year, one of the lowest in the studied metro areas. The unemployment rate will average 7.4 percent, the second lowest.

Construction and Mining will be the fastest growing sector in Tallahassee, averaging 6.3 percent annually. The Professional and Businesses Services sector follows with a growth rate of 4.4 percent. The State and Local Government and Federal Government sectors are expected to decline with average annual growth rates of -0.1 and -3.3 percent respectively.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s City of Tallahassee to keep $8.3 million electric utility surplus • Tallahassee city commissioners voted to put an $8.3 million utility surplus from last year into the utility reserve instead of giving rebates to city residents. • Although residents voiced concerns about rising utility rates, the commissioners eventually decided that the money was better kept in the reserve, which is used for emergencies, stabilizing rates and dealing with capital and fuel fluctuations. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, January 13, 2011

Source: Tallahassee Economic Development Council and Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation (CES)

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T a l l aha s s ee

ITT Technical Institute joins Tallahassee higher education market • ITT Technical Institute had its official ribbon cutting ceremony on February 2, although it has been in business since 2009. • ITT is a technical school offering five two-year degree programs. The first graduates from the Tallahassee school are expected to graduate in December of this year. • ITT in Tallahassee currently has 200 students. ITT has 10 campuses in Florida and 125 nationwide. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, February 2, 2011 Firms get early-stage assistance in EDC program • The Economic Development Council of Tallahassee-Leon County began its new Entrepreneurial Excellence Program. The program costs $400 per business and is put on by Tallahassee Community College. • The program is modeled after one begun 11 years ago at the University of Central Florida. • Statistics have shown that young firms that receive support at start up have an 80-percent survival rate in their first 5 years. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, February 17, 2011

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

Two engineering faculty members receive prestigious research awards • Professors Paravastu and Oates of Florida A&M University and Florida State University’s College of Engineering have received NSF Faculty Early Career Development Awards. • The awards are targeted to professors early in their academic careers. Their research is focused on “designer” proteins and photelastomers. Source: Florida State University, March 4, 2011 Businesses to benefit from certification program • After complaints from local businesses about being passed over for city contracts in favor of big companies, the city of Tallahassee is now offering a business certification program for local businesses. • There will be two types of certification, one for Leon County businesses and one for businesses in surrounding counties. Leon County businesses will receive a 20 percent preference in price and surrounding counties will receive a 10 percent preference in price. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, March 10, 2010

T a l l aha s s ee Tallahassee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

2.5

Tallahassee Real Gross Metro Product 15000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

12000.0

6.0%

11000.0

4.0%

10000.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL Unemployment Rate Tallahassee Unemployment Rate

9000.0

Tallahassee Payroll Employment (Thousands)

175.0 170.0 165.0 160.0 155.0

13000.0

8.0%

180.0

1.5

14000.0

10.0%

2.0%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Tallahassee Payroll Employment

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Gross Metro Product

Tallahassee Real Personal Income 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T a l l aha s s ee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

March 2011

Personal Income (Billions $)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

9.8 8.5 5.9 3.9 10.1 5.7 28.9 29.8 35.3 4.2

10.6 7.8 6.2 4.3 10.6 4.6 30.7 30.7 36.2 2.5

11.2 6.3 6.6 4.7 10.9 3.5 32.1 31.2 37.2 2.8

11.9 5.7 6.9 5 11.2 2.9 33.3 31.6 38.5 3.6

12.3 3.4 6.9 5.3 11.3 0.1 34.1 31.2 39.2 1.7

12.3 0 6.8 5.4 11.2 -0.1 33.8 30.9 39.7 1.4

12.6 3 7 5.7 11.4 1.3 34.7 31.2 41 3.3

13.2 4.4 7.2 6 11.7 2.4 36 31.8 42.4 3.4

13.7 3.5 7.6 6.1 11.9 2 36.9 32.1 43.8 3.3

14.3 4.6 7.9 6.4 12.2 2.9 38.1 32.6 45.1 2.9

15.1 5.7 8.3 6.8 12.7 3.8 39.8 33.4 46.4 2.8

16 5.6 8.7 7.2 13.2 3.9 41.4 34.2 47.7 2.8

176.3 -0.9 4.3 -7.1 172.1 -0.8 8.6 -9.7 24.2 -4.5 3.6 18.5 2.1 3.6 0.4 7.9 -3 19.1 1.3 19.2 4 16.5 -1.5 9.7 8.8 2 3.9 61.2 -1

171.4 -2.8 3.8 -9.4 167.6 -2.6 7 -18 22.6 -6.6 3.4 17.4 1.8 3.4 -6 7.5 -5.8 18.5 -3.6 19.5 1.5 16.2 -1.6 9.9 2.1 2 1.3 60.9 -0.4

169.4 -1.2 3.7 -3.8 165.7 -1.1 6.5 -8.3 22.4 -0.9 3.3 17.2 1.8 3.1 -9.3 7.2 -3.7 18.1 -2.1 19.7 1.1 15.8 -2.5 9.9 -0.2 2.1 5.8 60.9 -0.1

169.9 0.3 3.8 2 166.1 0.3 6.5 0.6 22.7 1.5 3.3 17.4 1.9 3.1 0.7 7.1 -1 18 -0.4 20.1 2.1 16.2 2.4 10.1 1.2 2 -6.2 60.3 -0.9

171.7 1 3.9 3.5 167.7 1 6.6 1.8 23.2 2.2 3.5 17.7 2 3.2 4.5 7.3 2.3 18.7 3.8 20.4 1.6 16.5 2 10.2 1.1 1.9 -2.3 59.6 -1.2

175.1 2 4.1 4 171 1.9 7.3 10.5 23.8 2.4 3.6 18 2.1 3.3 2.2 7.4 1.1 19.9 6.4 20.6 0.8 16.6 0.6 10.3 0.9 1.9 -2.4 60 0.6

178.9 2.2 4.1 2 174.7 2.2 8.2 12.3 24.1 1.3 3.7 18.2 2.2 3.3 1.3 7.4 0.4 21.4 7.8 20.8 1.2 16.6 -0.2 10.3 0.6 1.9 -2.1 60.6 1

181.9 1.7 4.2 0.9 177.7 1.7 8.9 8.9 24.4 1 3.7 18.2 2.3 3.5 3.5 7.4 -0.1 22.8 6.4 21.2 1.5 16.6 0 10.4 0.5 1.8 -1.2 60.8 0.3

12183 12564.4 13039.4 12978.9 12756.1 13017.8 13317.1 13665.2 14075.6 14526.9 344 350.2 356.3 360.3 363.4 365 366.8 370.3 374.9 379.9 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.5 1 1.2 1.3 178 182.3 186.6 190.8 193.4 194.8 200.6 211.2 220.9 228.5 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.3 1.4 0.7 2.9 5.3 4.6 3.5 3.2 2.8 3.2 4.7 7.4 8.6 8.6 7.8 6.9 6.1 3747 3105 2765 1245 789 774 786 1352 2028 2434 2766 2535 2171 961 656 583 575 1130 1671 1875 981 570 593 284 133 190 211 222 356 559

14887 385 1.3 235.1 2.9 5.6 2621 1931 689

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

167.1 1.5 4.2 2 162.9 1.5 8.3 8.5 24.6 4.4 3.3 19.1 2.1 3.6 5.1 7.6 -0.7 17.2 -0.3 16.8 -1.7 14.4 6.1 8 2.8 1.9 -3.3 60.5 -0.1 11762.7 338.7 1.4 172.9 -0.3 3.8 3388 2131 1257

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

171.8 2.8 4.2 0.8 167.5 2.8 9.4 12.4 25.4 3.4 3.6 19.3 2.5 3.7 2.1 8 4.8 18.2 5.9 17.2 2.6 15.6 8.3 8 -0.6 1.9 0 60.2 -0.5

176 2.4 4.5 4.9 171.5 2.4 9.8 4.8 25.6 0.9 3.7 19.4 2.4 3.5 -5.2 8.3 4.4 19.1 5.1 17.8 3.3 16.2 3.3 8.5 5.8 1.9 -1.7 60.9 1.2

178 1.1 4.6 2.8 173.4 1.1 9.5 -3 25.3 -1.2 3.8 19.2 2.4 3.6 2.9 8.2 -1.9 18.9 -1.2 18.5 3.8 16.8 3.7 9 5.9 1.9 0 61.8 1.6

T a l l aha s s ee

Quarterly Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

March 2011

2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

13 4.2 7.1 5.9 11.6 2.6 35.6 31.6 41.7 3.1

13.1 4.1 7.2 5.9 11.6 2.1 35.9 31.7 42.3 3.5

13.3 4.7 7.3 6 11.7 2.5 36.1 31.8 42.6 3.5

13.4 4.5 7.4 6 11.7 2.4 36.4 31.9 43 3.5

13.4 3.2 7.4 6 11.8 1.7 36.4 31.9 43.3 3.8

13.6 3.4 7.5 6.1 11.8 1.8 36.7 32 43.6 3.2

13.7 3.6 7.6 6.1 11.9 2.1 37 32.2 44 3.1

13.9 3.8 7.7 6.2 12 2.3 37.3 32.3 44.3 3

14 4.5 7.8 6.3 12.1 2.9 37.7 32.4 44.6 3

14.2 4.6 7.9 6.3 12.2 2.9 37.9 32.6 44.9 3

14.4 4.6 8 6.4 12.3 2.9 38.3 32.7 45.2 2.9

14.5 4.6 8.1 6.5 12.4 2.9 38.6 32.8 45.5 2.9

14.8 5.3 8.2 6.6 12.5 3.5 39.1 33.1 45.9 2.8

15 5.6 8.3 6.7 12.6 3.7 39.5 33.3 46.2 2.8

170.6 0.5 3.8 2.6 166.8 0.4 6.4 -1.6 23 1.2 3.4 17.5 2 3.2 4.3 7.2 1.8 18.4 2.9 20.3 1.8 16.4 1.8 10.1 1.4 2 -2.2 59.7 -1.7

171.2 0.9 3.9 3.2 167.4 0.8 6.6 0.3 23.2 2.2 3.4 17.6 2 3.2 5.1 7.3 2.1 18.5 3.8 20.4 1.8 16.5 2 10.1 1 1.9 -2.3 59.6 -1.5

172 1.2 3.9 3.8 168 1.2 6.7 2.8 23.3 2.7 3.5 17.7 2 3.2 4.2 7.3 2.6 18.8 4.1 20.5 1.4 16.6 2.3 10.2 1 1.9 -2.4 59.6 -1

172.8 1.5 4 4.4 168.8 1.5 6.8 5.8 23.5 2.8 3.5 17.8 2.1 3.3 4.2 7.4 2.5 19 4.6 20.5 1.1 16.6 2 10.2 0.9 1.9 -2.5 59.6 -0.4

173.5 1.7 4 4.6 169.5 1.6 7 8.6 23.6 2.6 3.5 17.9 2.1 3.3 3.6 7.4 1.9 19.4 5.2 20.5 0.8 16.6 1.3 10.2 0.9 1.9 -2.4 59.6 -0.1

174.5 1.9 4.1 4.4 170.5 1.9 7.2 9.9 23.7 2.5 3.5 18 2.1 3.3 2.5 7.4 1.3 19.7 6 20.6 0.9 16.6 0.6 10.2 1 1.9 -2.4 59.8 0.4

175.6 2.1 4.1 3.8 171.6 2.1 7.4 11.1 23.9 2.5 3.6 18.1 2.1 3.3 2 7.4 0.7 20.1 6.9 20.6 0.8 16.6 0.2 10.3 0.9 1.9 -2.5 60.1 0.9

176.7 2.2 4.1 3.2 172.6 2.2 7.6 12.2 24 2.1 3.6 18.1 2.1 3.3 0.7 7.4 0.6 20.5 7.4 20.7 0.7 16.6 0.2 10.3 0.7 1.9 -2.4 60.3 1.2

177.7 2.4 4.1 2.6 173.6 2.4 7.9 12.9 24 1.9 3.6 18.2 2.2 3.3 0.6 7.4 0.5 20.9 7.8 20.8 1.4 16.6 0 10.3 0.5 1.9 -2.3 60.5 1.5

178.6 2.3 4.1 2 174.4 2.3 8.1 12.8 24.1 1.4 3.6 18.2 2.2 3.3 1.3 7.4 0.5 21.3 8.2 20.8 1.1 16.6 -0.2 10.3 0.7 1.9 -2.2 60.6 1.3

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

169.8 0.2 3.7 0.4 166.1 0.2 6.6 3.6 22.7 1.3 3.3 17.5 1.9 3.1 -2.1 7.1 -4 17.9 -0.9 20 1.6 16.1 1.5 10 1 2 -1.5 60.8 -0.5 13200.6 365.8 0.3 196.6 0.6 8.7 691 441 250

169.8 0 3.8 1.6 166 -0.1 6.5 1 22.7 1.7 3.3 17.4 1.9 3 -1.6 7.1 -2.1 17.9 -1.7 20.1 2.3 16.2 1.6 10 1.5 2 -16.5 60.5 -0.8

169.9 0.5 3.8 3.3 166.1 0.5 6.5 -0.8 22.7 1.2 3.4 17.3 1.9 3.1 3.7 7.1 0.8 18 -0.6 20.2 2.1 16.2 3.5 10.1 1.7 2 -3.4 60.2 -0.9

170.2 0.6 3.8 2.8 166.4 0.5 6.4 -1.1 22.8 1.9 3.4 17.4 2 3.2 2.9 7.2 1.7 18.2 1.4 20.3 2.2 16.3 2.9 10.1 0.7 2 -1.5 59.9 -1.5

13274 13345.9 13447.7 13509.6 13603.6 13710.1 13837.3 13900.7 14019.4 14139.2 14243.2 14374.7 14487.7 366.3 367.1 368 368.8 369.7 370.8 372 373.1 374.2 375.5 376.8 378.1 379.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 199.1 201.9 204.8 207.3 210.1 212.6 215 217.5 219.9 222 224.1 225.9 227.6 2 3.8 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.3 5 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.2 3.9 3.5 8.8 8.6 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.4 7.2 7 6.8 6.5 6.3 6.2 723 813 916 1053 1242 1471 1643 1807 1976 2101 2226 2308 2400 526 615 717 862 1028 1250 1380 1509 1644 1734 1798 1822 1866 197 197 199 192 214 221 263 298 332 367 428 486 535

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T a m pa – St . P ete r s bu r g – C l ea r w ate r

P r o fi l e s The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is comprised of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas counties. Located centrally on the west coast of Florida, this region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge Docks, Ybor City, Bush Gardens, the University of South Florida, and the University of Tampa. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Devil Rays also call this region home. Quick Facts:

• MSA population estimate of 2,783,243 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hernando County population estimate of 172,778 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hillsborough County population estimate of 1,229,226 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Pasco County population estimate of 464,697 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Pinellas County population estimate of 916,542 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• A civilian labor force of 1,292,530 in February 2011 for the entire region (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 11.5% as of February 2011, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 148,162 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• Hillsborough County School District – 25,487 employees • Verizon Communications – 14,000 employees • MacDill Air Force Base – 12,000 employees

• University of South Florida – 11,607 employees • Hillsborough County Government – 10,886 employees

• Tampa International Airport – 7,760 employees

• James A Haley Veterans Hospital – 5,900 employees • St. Joseph’s Hospital – 5,242 employees • JP Morgan Chase – 5,237 employees

• Verizon Information Technologies – 5,000 employees

Source: Committee of One Hundred Research 84

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to be 5.0 percent on average each year, and the per capita income level will average 35.8 annually. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.0 percent. The average annual wage level will be 50.4. Population growth will average 1.3 percent, and Tampa is forecasted to have the second highest Gross Metro Product, averaging a level of 108,233.90 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to be 2.2 percent annually. The unemployment rate is expected to average 9.5 percent.

The fastest growing sector in the Tampa area will be Construction and Mining, growing 6.1 percent each year. The Professional and Business Services sectors follow with average annual growth rates of 4.8 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively. The Federal Government sector is going to experience a decline with an annual growth rate of -2.8 percent.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Tampa cruise industry set to grow in 2011 • The port expects 190,000 additional passengers for the 2011-2012 cruise season due to the addition of Norwegian Cruise Lines and enhancements being made by Royal Caribbean. Carnival and Holland America also operate in the Port of Tampa. • Tampa has ranked ninth nationwide in cruise passengers from 2006 to 2009. In Florida, it ranks in fourth place with 400,000 people departing the port per year. • As a drawback, however, the port has a 182.8foot clearance due to the Sunshine Skyway Bridge, which does not allow it to accommodate the new classes of cruise ships. Source: The Tampa Tribune, January 20, 2011

T a m pa – St . P ete r s bu r g – C l ea r w ate r

Tampa Bay Lightning outlines plan for renovations to St. Pete Times Forum • The $35 million in renovations are aimed at improving fan experience and attracting more events to the area. • The Lighting will pay for the project upfront and then the Hillsborough County may reimburse some of the cost with money from tourist taxes. The renovations are not subject to the reimbursement by the county. • One of the main changes is an 11,000 square foot outdoor party deck with a small stage for postgame events, and food and drink areas. Source: St. Petersburg Times, February 3, 2011 Pasco County commissioners endorse slashing impact fees

Pinellas schools brace for $60 million in cuts • The district has cut $120 million from its budget over the past five years and is expecting further cuts of $60 million from next year’s budget. • The exact amount of the cut will be known in May but projections range from $34 million to $86 million. • This year, Pinellas schools were able to use federal stimulus funding to avoid some cuts. Since 85 percent of the budget is salaries and benefits, every employee could be affected by the cuts. Source: St. Petersburg Times, March 9, 2011 Tampa water report: Many factors caused high bills

• County commissioners agreed to cut fees imposed on developers for services such as roads, libraries, fire service and parks. Further cuts in fees involving school funding may take place.

• A review of the water department made by the Tampa City Council reported that the city was not at fault. The review did not find any systematic issues in the billing process at the water department.

• Impact fees will be cut by at least $8,500 on a single-family home. Current impact fees in Pasco add up to $16,900. These changes will revert to their current levels starting in 2013.

• The water department has not come up with an explanation of why residents have received water bills three, five and even ten times above normal in recent months.

• Developers argue that Pasco County’s fees are too high, and they entail a disadvantage for development when compared with neighboring counties.

• A task force has been created to come up with recommendations for improving the department. Source: St. Petersburg Times, March 18, 2011

Source: St. Petersburg Times, February 23, 2011

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T a m pa â&#x20AC;&#x201C; St . P ete r s bu r g â&#x20AC;&#x201C; C l ea r w ate r Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

Florida & Tampa Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

1.4

120000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

90000.0 80000.0 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL Unemployment Rate Tampa Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

1200.0 1150.0 1100.0

1.2

100000.0

1250.0

1050.0

Tampa Real Gross Metro Product

70000.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Tampa Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Gross Metro Product

Tampa Real Personal Income

Tampa Payroll Employment 1300.0

0.8

110000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.4

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Personal Income

T a m pa – St . P ete r s bu r g – C l ea r w ate r

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

March 2011

Personal Income (Billions $)

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

84.9 7.6 46 38.9 87.4 4.9 32.7 33.7 38.6 3.5

91.4 7.7 49.1 42.3 91.4 4.6 34.4 34.4 39.9 3.3

98.5 7.7 52.3 46.2 95.8 4.9 36.4 35.5 41.6 4.3

102.1 3.7 54.2 47.9 96.8 1 37.4 35.4 43.2 3.8

104.8 2.6 53.9 50.9 96.1 -0.7 38.1 34.9 44.3 2.7

103.8 -0.9 51.9 51.9 95 -1.1 37.4 34.3 45.4 2.3

106.7 2.7 52.6 54 96 1 38.2 34.3 46.7 2.9

111.1 4.2 54.5 56.6 98.1 2.2 39.4 34.8 48.2 3.3

115.5 4 57.6 58 100.5 2.4 40.5 35.2 49.7 3.2

121.7 5.3 61 60.7 104.1 3.6 42 36 51.1 2.8

129.5 6.5 64.5 65 108.9 4.6 44 37 52.5 2.7

137.5 6.2 67.9 69.7 113.7 4.4 45.8 37.8 53.9 2.7

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1180.6 3.6 76.9 0.8 1103.7 3.8 79.1 9.9 227 2.3 50.9 144.2 31.9 32.1 -4.9 95.5 1.7 196.1 9.8 154.1 3.1 123.5 3 49.2 2.7 19.9 2.2 127.2 0.4

1220.3 3.4 77.6 0.9 1142.7 3.5 88.3 11.6 234.4 3.3 52.8 149.9 31.7 31.9 -0.6 99.5 4.2 207 5.5 156.6 1.6 127.5 3.2 49.4 0.6 20.8 4.3 127.3 0.1

1245.4 2.1 78.5 1.2 1166.9 2.1 93.9 6.3 236.6 0.9 54 151.9 30.7 31.8 -0.2 102.7 3.2 215.6 4.2 160.2 2.3 129.7 1.7 47.1 -4.6 21 1.2 128.1 0.7

1244.4 -0.1 75.9 -3.4 1168.5 0.1 87.3 -7 235 -0.7 54.3 151.7 29 31.8 -0.1 101.8 -0.9 215.6 0 167.4 4.5 130 0.2 47.8 1.4 21.1 0.5 130.6 2

1202.8 -3.3 71.5 -5.8 1131.3 -3.2 75.9 -13.1 227.3 -3.3 52.9 146.7 27.8 30.3 -4.8 97.1 -4.6 202.3 -6.2 171.8 2.6 126 -3 47.6 -0.5 21.9 3.9 131.1 0.4

1132.3 -5.9 61.9 -13.4 1070.4 -5.4 59.6 -21.4 210.4 -7.4 47.7 137.1 25.7 27.5 -9 91.7 -5.6 189.8 -6.2 173.2 0.8 119.8 -4.9 43.9 -7.7 22.7 3.7 131.7 0.4

1116 -1.4 57.8 -6.7 1058.2 -1.1 52.4 -12.1 207.6 -1.3 45.6 137.3 24.8 25.7 -6.8 87.1 -5 191.4 0.9 177.5 2.5 118.5 -1.2 42.8 -2.5 23.9 5.2 131.2 -0.3

1119.9 0.4 57.9 0.3 1062 0.4 50.7 -3.3 207.9 0.1 45.8 136.8 24.7 25.9 0.7 86.4 -0.8 192.5 0.5 181.6 2.3 120.8 2 43 0.5 22.7 -4.8 130.5 -0.6

1146.8 2.4 60 3.6 1086.8 2.3 52.3 3.1 213.7 2.8 47.7 139.2 26 27 4.5 88.4 2.3 201.2 4.6 185.2 2 123.7 2.4 43.3 0.7 22.3 -2 129.5 -0.8

1180.9 3 62.5 4.1 1118.4 2.9 58.3 11.4 219.4 2.7 49.2 142.5 26.9 27.4 1.6 89.9 1.7 213.8 6.2 187.9 1.4 125.4 1.3 43.6 0.5 21.8 -2.2 130.8 1

1217.3 3.1 63.7 1.8 1153.6 3.2 66 13.2 222.8 1.6 50.3 143.8 27.7 27.6 0.6 90.8 1 231 8 191.2 1.7 126.3 0.7 43.6 0.2 21.4 -2 132.9 1.6

1247.3 2.5 64.1 0.6 1183.2 2.6 72.5 9.9 225.8 1.3 51.2 144.8 28.5 28.4 3 91.1 0.3 244.3 5.8 195.2 2.1 127.1 0.7 43.7 0.1 21.1 -1.1 133.9 0.7

95765.8 2596.4 2.3 1255 2.3 4.5 27275 22057 5217

101252 2656.7 2.3 1248.4 -0.5 3.9 32808 27577 5231

104555 2702.6 1.7 1272.9 2 3.4 22987 19477 3510

105127 2731.7 1.1 1293.6 1.6 4.2 11590 8530 3060

101996 98308.6 2753.3 2773.5 0.8 0.7 1307.5 1309.4 1.1 0.1 6.6 11 8907 5797 5266 4053 3641 1744

100018 2795.3 0.8 1313.1 0.3 12.4 6718 4602 2117

102558 2819.5 0.9 1343.2 2.3 11.2 9079 6005 3075

106000 2851 1.1 1416.1 5.4 10 13797 10043 3755

109964 2894.8 1.5 1485.4 4.9 8.9 18101 14274 3827

114415 2946.3 1.8 1549.7 4.3 7.8 21778 16624 5154

118081 3005.5 2 1608.2 3.8 6.8 23114 17661 5453

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T a m pa – St . P ete r s bu r g – C l ea r w ate r

Quarterly Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

March 2011

2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

109.5 3.9 53.5 56 97.2 2.3 39 34.6 47.5 3.1

110.5 3.8 54.2 56.3 97.8 1.9 39.3 34.7 48 3.3

111.6 4.3 54.8 56.8 98.4 2.1 39.6 34.9 48.4 3.2

112.9 4.7 55.6 57.3 99.1 2.6 39.9 35 48.8 3.4

113.4 3.6 56.4 57 99.1 2 40 34.9 49.2 3.6

114.8 3.8 57.2 57.6 100.1 2.3 40.3 35.2 49.5 3.1

116.3 4.1 58 58.3 100.9 2.6 40.7 35.3 49.9 3

117.8 4.3 58.8 59 101.8 2.8 41.1 35.5 50.2 2.9

119.3 5.2 59.6 59.6 102.7 3.6 41.5 35.7 50.6 2.9

120.9 5.3 60.5 60.4 103.7 3.6 41.8 35.9 51 2.9

122.4 5.3 61.4 61 104.6 3.6 42.2 36.1 51.3 2.8

124.1 5.4 62.3 61.8 105.5 3.6 42.6 36.2 51.6 2.8

126.5 6.1 63.2 63.3 107.1 4.2 43.2 36.6 52 2.7

128.5 6.3 64.1 64.4 108.2 4.4 43.7 36.8 52.3 2.7

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1114.6 0.1 57.4 -0.9 1057.2 0.1 50.9 -4.6 206.9 -0.1 45 137.4 24.3 25.5 -2.3 86.1 -2.1 190.5 0.2 180.2 2.2 120.1 1.9 42.9 0 22.9 -1.1 131.2 0.1

1116.9 0 57.8 -0.1 1059.2 0 50.9 -3.6 207.1 -0.6 45.4 136.8 24.5 25.5 -0.6 86.1 -1.2 191.4 0.3 180.9 2.2 120.6 2 43 0.3 22.8 -12.5 130.9 0

1120.9 0.3 58.1 0.3 1062.8 0.3 50.7 -2.9 207.9 -0.3 46.1 136.2 24.9 26 2.1 86.5 -0.5 192.8 0.1 182 2.5 120.9 2.1 43.1 0.5 22.7 -4.1 130.2 -1.1

1127.2 1.1 58.4 1.8 1068.8 1.1 50.4 -1.9 209.5 1.4 46.7 136.8 25.2 26.5 3.8 86.9 0.8 195.1 1.6 183.2 2.3 121.6 1.9 43.2 1.2 22.6 -0.7 129.7 -1.3

1135.1 1.8 59 2.7 1076.1 1.8 50.6 -0.6 211.2 2.1 47.1 137.7 25.6 26.7 5.1 87.5 1.6 198 4 184 2.1 122.7 2.1 43.3 1.1 22.5 -1.8 129.5 -1.3

1142.6 2.3 59.7 3.3 1082.9 2.2 51.7 1.6 213 2.8 47.5 138.8 25.9 26.8 5.3 88.1 2.2 199.8 4.4 184.9 2.2 123.6 2.5 43.3 0.7 22.3 -1.9 129.4 -1.1

1150.5 2.6 60.4 3.9 1090.1 2.6 52.8 4.1 214.4 3.1 47.8 139.6 26.1 27.1 4 88.9 2.8 202.3 4.9 185.6 2 124.1 2.7 43.3 0.6 22.2 -2.1 129.5 -0.6

1159 2.8 61.1 4.6 1097.9 2.7 54.1 7.3 216.1 3.1 48.3 140.5 26.4 27.5 3.6 89.3 2.7 204.9 5 186.5 1.8 124.5 2.4 43.4 0.4 22.1 -2.4 129.6 0

1166.7 2.8 61.8 4.8 1104.9 2.7 55.6 9.8 217.4 2.9 48.6 141.3 26.6 27.5 2.8 89.6 2.4 207.9 5 186.5 1.4 125 1.9 43.5 0.5 22 -2.3 129.9 0.3

1175.4 2.9 62.4 4.6 1113 2.8 57.3 10.8 218.9 2.7 49 142.2 26.8 27.3 1.9 89.7 1.9 211.1 5.6 187.7 1.5 125.2 1.3 43.5 0.6 21.8 -2.3 130.5 0.8

1185.8 3.1 62.7 3.9 1123.1 3 59.1 12 220.3 2.7 49.4 143 27 27.4 1.4 90 1.3 215.9 6.7 188.4 1.5 125.5 1.1 43.6 0.6 21.7 -2.2 131.1 1.3

1195.5 3.1 63.1 3.3 1132.4 3.1 61.2 13.1 221.1 2.3 49.7 143.4 27.2 27.5 0.1 90.4 1.2 220.4 7.6 189 1.4 125.8 1.1 43.6 0.4 21.6 -2.1 131.7 1.6

1205 3.3 63.3 2.4 1141.6 3.3 63.2 13.8 221.8 2 49.9 143.6 27.4 27.5 -0.1 90.6 1.1 224.9 8.2 190.2 1.9 126 0.8 43.6 0.2 21.5 -2.1 132.4 1.9

1213.7 3.3 63.6 1.8 1150.1 3.3 65.1 13.7 222.5 1.7 50.2 143.8 27.6 27.5 0.6 90.7 1.1 229.2 8.6 191 1.8 126.2 0.8 43.6 0.2 21.4 -2.1 132.8 1.8

101397 2809.8 0.8 1317.3 -0.1 11.5 8401 5050 3351

102172 2815.9 0.8 1333.2 1.3 11.5 8623 5639 2984

102847 2822.3 0.9 1351.4 3.2 11.2 9175 6235 2941

103815 2830 0.9 1370.7 4.9 10.7 10119 7095 3023

104557 2837.9 1 1388.8 5.4 10.4 11331 8061 3270

105433 2846 1.1 1407.1 5.5 10.1 13145 9191 3954

106420 2854.9 1.2 1425.5 5.5 9.8 15013 10932 4081

107588 2865.2 1.2 1442.8 5.3 9.5 15700 11986 3714

108303 2876.5 1.4 1460.1 5.1 9.3 16093 12713 3380

109403 2888.6 1.5 1476.9 5 9 17624 14025 3599

110553 2900.6 1.6 1493.7 4.8 8.7 18801 14886 3915

111595 2913.3 1.7 1510.8 4.7 8.4 19886 15472 4414

112856 2926.4 1.7 1527 4.6 8.2 20791 15957 4834

113970 2939.2 1.8 1542.4 4.4 7.9 21558 16497 5061

Florida & Metro Forecast - April 2011

I n d u s t r y L o cati o n Q u o tie n t

E x p l a n ati o n a n d I n te r p r etati o n This technique compares the local economy to a reference economy; in this case, the local economy is the chosen MSA, and the reference economy is the state of Florida. An Industry Location Quotient (LQ ) is calculated to determine if the local economy has a greater share of each industryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s employment than the reference economy. The LQ helps to identify specializations that exist in the local economy. There are only three possible outcomes: 1. An LQ greater than one 2. An LQ equal to one and 3. An LQ less than one. An LQ that is greater than one means that the share of local employment in that particular industry is greater than the reference economy employment share in that same industry. This implies that some of the goods or services produced by that industry are exported for consumption elsewhere. An LQ of one means that local demand is met by the local industry. No goods/services are imported or exported from the local area in that industry. The share of local employment in that industry is equal to the share for that industry in the reference economy. An LQ less than one implies that the industry is not meeting local demand for that good or service, and in order to meet demand, that area must import that good or service. This also means that the share of local employment in that industry is less than the share of employment in that industry for the reference economy.

C a l cu l ati o n An industry location quotient is a calculated ratio of two ratios. LQ = ((Local employment in industry A in year T / Total local employment in year T) / (Reference economy employment in industry A in year T) / (Total reference employment in year T)) For example: Orlando MSA employment for Information is 27,400

Total Orlando MSA nonagricultural employment is 1,104,100 Florida employment for Information is 169,800

Total Florida nonagricultural employment is 8,247,000 LQ = ((27,400 / 1,104,100) / (169,800 / 8,247,000)) = 1.2039 Source: Florida Regional Economic Database, Current Employment Statistics, December 2006

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

In Appeciation

The UCF College of Business Administration would like to thank Alan C. Charron, ‘84, for his generous gift to the Institute for Economic Competitiveness. His support enables the Institute to publish this forecast and will help fund future activities and research. Charron graduated in 1984 with a degree in finance. He is president of Real Property Specialists, Inc., located in Orlando, Florida. Founded in 1992, Real Property Specialists, Inc., is a fullservice brokerage company that has built a reputation of providing highly personalized service while being responsive and flexible to its clients' individual needs. They offer a range of commercial real estate services in the Central Florida area including brokerage, appraisal, development, property management and tenant representation. Real Property Specialists, Inc., has set a new standard of excellence in client service by providing these key advantages over the competition:

Responsiveness. You work directly with a decision

maker who has the flexibility to immediately attend to your needs.

Consistency. We are a unified firm employing team-

members who are committed to the success of our clients. We pride ourselves on our ability to maintain a dedicated, professional staff that is able to build long-term, comfortable and prosperous relationships with our clients.

Accountability. At Real Property Specialists, our client is the real "Boss." We are accountable to no one other than the client. No company policy interferes with our ability to serve the individual needs of each client. Experience. The staff at Real Property Specialists is

highly qualified, with most associates having more than a decade of experience in the industry. Our personal portfolio of shopping centers gives us first-hand knowledge of what is important when leasing, managing or selling a property.

Appraisers • Brokers • Consultants 6700 Conroy-Windermere Road, Suite 230 | Orlando, FL 32835 407.291.9000 | www.realpropertyspecialists.com

Director, Institute for Economic Competitiveness. Ph.D., Pennsylvania State University 1996; M.A., Pennsylvania State University 1994; B.S., Allegheny College 1989.

Sea n M . S n ai t h , P h . D .

We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness:

Sean Snaith, Ph.D., is the Director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness within the College of Business Administration at the University of Central Florida and is a widely recognized economist in the field of business and economic forecasting. As an award-winning forecaster, researcher, and professor, Snaith is always interested in the application of academic expertise to the solution of real world problems. Snaith has served as a consultant for a client list ranging from local and regional municipalities to multi-national corporations, including Compaq, Dell and IBM. He has held teaching positions at Pennsylvania State University, American University in Cairo, University of North Dakota and University of the Pacific. Snaith frequently appears in national and regional media and is sought after as a speaker. He has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, the New York Times, and the Chicago Tribune and has appeared on CNBC and Fox Business Channel. Known for his engaging presentations, one business editor wrote, “Snaith (has) an uncanny knack of making economics not only understandable but interesting.” Snaith is a member of several economic organizations and national economic forecasting panels including USA Today’s Survey of Top Economists, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, Bloomberg, Reuters and the Livingston Survey. In 2007 he was named California’s most accurate forecaster by the Western Blue Chip Consensus Forecast, besting UCLA, Wells Fargo and other esteemed forecasting groups. Snaith holds a B.S. in Economics from Allegheny College and an M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from Pennsylvania State University. Snaith was recently named by Bloomberg News as one of the nation’s most accurate forecasters and was one of just two academic economists making the list which was released in the December 2008 issue of Bloomberg Markets. For more information Sean Snaith, Director Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida P.O. Box 161400 Orlando, FL 32816 PH: 407.823.1451 FAX: 407.823.1454 E-MAIL: ssnaith@bus.ucf.edu www.iec.ucf.edu

University of Central Florida College of Business Administration Institute for Economic Competitiveness P. O . B o x 1 6 1 4 0 0 , O r l a n d o , F l o r i d a 3 2 8 1 6 PH 407.823.1453

FA X 4 0 7 . 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 4

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