Florida and Metro Forecast December 2007 by UCF College of Business

Florida & Metro Forecast 2007-2010

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

Published December 2007

Message From D ea n T h o ma s L . K e o n

A b o ut U n i v e r s it y o f C e n t r al F l o r ida ( U C F ) T h e Un i ve r s i t y o f C e n t r a l Fl o r i d a i s a public, multi-campus, metropolitan r e s e a r c h u n i v e r s i t y, d e d i c a t e d t o serving its surrounding communities with their diverse and expanding populations, technological corridors, and international partners. The mission of the university is to offer high-quality undergraduate and graduate education, student development, and continuing education; to conduct research and creative activities; and to provide services that enhance the intellectual, cultural, environmental, and economic development of the metropolitan region, address national and international issues in key areas, establish UCF as a major presence, and contribute to the global c o m m u n i t y.

A b o ut t h e C o lle g e o f B u s i n e s s A dmi n i s t r ati o n The College of Business Administration a d v a n c e s t h e u n i v e r s i t y â&#x20AC;&#x2122;s m i s s i o n and goals in providing intellectual leadership through research, teaching, and service. The college is striving to enhance graduate programs, while maintaining the strong undergraduate base. The college delivers research and quality business education programs at the undergraduate, masters, doctoral, and executive levels to citizens of the state of Florida and to select clientele n a t i o n a l l y a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y.

For decades, children have been reading Dr. Seuss books. In fact, this time of year, the Grinch is quite popular. Not only are these stories enjoyable to read, but many of them include important morals or parables. As you examine this three-year economic forecast, you will actually notice references from Dr. Seuss, along with Sisyphus from Greek mythology. Dr. Sean Snaithâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s approach to presenting this forecast is entertaining as well as informative. The topic is quite serious however. Florida is growing at an incredible pace, affecting our economy in every aspect. Subjects such as the housing sector, unemployment rates and the gross state product are addressed in this publication. I encourage you to read through the data carefully. I want to wish each and every one of you a Happy New Year. Thank you for your support throughout 2007, and I am looking forward to addressing you again next quarter, I am, I am!

n Thomas L . Keo Sincerely,

Thomas L. Keon Dean

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

F lo r i da F o r eca s t 2007 - 2010 December 2007 Report

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright ÂŠ 2007 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved.

Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Barbie Barontini, Editor Jeff Slanker, Researcher Amanda Silvestri, Researcher Jennifer Reid, Researcher Nathan Goldschlag, Researcher Trina Banerji, Marketing Intern

This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitivenessâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.

TABLE OF CONTENTS Florida Summary................................................. 6-10 Florida Forecast Tables...................................... 12-17

Florida News Summaries....................................... 27 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach.......... 29-33 Gainesville......................................................... 34-38 Jacksonville....................................................... 39-43 Lakeland............................................................ 44-48 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach............... 49-53 Naples-Marco Island......................................... 54-58 Ocala................................................................. 59-63 Orlando-Kissimmee.......................................... 64-68 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville......................... 69-73 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent.............................. 74-78 Tallahassee........................................................ 79-83 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater.................... 84-88 Industry Location Quotient..................................... 89 Definitions.............................................................. 90

Tab l e o f c o n t e n t s

Florida Forecast Charts...................................... 19-26

F l o r i d a Summa r y

F l o r i d a P r o pe r t y Ta x Ref o r m : Si s y p h u s a n d S n ee t c h e s “And I saw Sisyphus at his endless task raising his prodigious stone with both his hands. With hands and feet he tried to roll it up to the top of the hill, but always, just before he could roll it over on to the other side, its weight would be too much for him, and the pitiless stone would come thundering down again on to the plain. Then he would begin trying to push it up hill again, and the sweat ran off him and the steam rose after him.” The Odyssey, BOOK XI – Homer

Now the Star-bellied Sneetches had bellies with stars. The Plain-bellied Sneetches had none upon thars. The stars weren’t so big; they were really quite small. You would think such a thing wouldn’t matter at all. But because they had stars, all the Star-bellied Sneetches would brag, “We’re the best kind of Sneetch on the beaches.” With their snoots in the air, they would sniff and they’d snort, “We’ll have nothing to do with the Plain-bellied sort.” And whenever they met some, when they were out walking, they’d hike right on past them without even talking. When the Star-bellied children went out to play ball, could the Plain-bellies join in their game? Not at all! You could only play ball if your bellies had stars, and the Plain-bellied children had none upon thars. When the Star-bellied Sneetches had frankfurter roasts, or picnics or parties or marshmallow toasts, they never invited the Plain-bellied Sneetches. Left them out cold in the dark of the beaches. Kept them away; never let them come near, and that’s how they treated them year after year.

THE SNEETCHES – Dr. Seuss

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

Observing the process surrounding the struggle for property tax reform has been a challenging task. Tax reform proposals and special sessions were as profligate as love bugs during mating season and equally as difficult to track. The struggle brings to my mind the myth of Sisyphus as described by Homer in The Odyssey. The whole process of bringing the property tax reform to the point where we currently stand has been an arduous one that has yet to bear fruit. Many different proposals have been offered and labored over by legislators, and a number of special sessions were convened to work through the issue. Legislators, not unlike Sisyphus, pushed boulder after boulder up the hill only to see them, one after the other, roll back down again. The boulder is once again perched precariously near the top of the hill as a proposal to amend the constitution awaits voters on January 29. What will happen? I have got to go with the boulder over Sisyphus. Even if it does pass, we still have the Sneetches factor to deal with, which we will touch upon in a moment. Typically, the reference to something as a Sisyphean task is to label it a pointless, difficult, and frustrating exercise. By invoking the image of Sysiphus in the context of Florida’s property tax debate, I do it in the sense of the philosopher Albert Camus’ interpretation of this myth. Camus sees Sisyphus not as a tragic figure doomed to forever roll the boulder up the hill only to have it roll down again; rather, Camus sees virtue in the act of rolling the boulder itself and imagines that Sisyphus is happy. There is virtue to be found in the struggle for property tax reform as well, not in exactly the same sense as Camus implied for Sisyphus, as I do not think legislators find joy in a never-ending attempt to rein in property tax growth. Rather, it brings to the foreground the need for Florida to reexamine its tax structure from top to bottom and rethink how we manage the state’s economy. The struggle with property tax reform demonstrates very clearly that the current structure is insufficient. Florida will be a trillion-dollar economy within five years, and this growth will bring with it a variety of challenges

F l o r i d a Summa r y

that our current structure does not seem to be capable of handling. A business management strategy that is effective for a mom-and-pop operation will simply not work for a Fortune 500 corporation. Our need to have a tax system that is equitable and that provides sufficient funding to both state and local governments to meet the needs and challenges facing Florida has been brought to the foreground by the struggles with property tax reform. Florida is in its economic adolescence. Growth spurts have resulted in a body that is large and ungainly and a mind that has not fully come to terms with its new reality. Florida needs to play catch-up with how it governs its new economic body. Florida no longer can be touted as a cheap place to live or do business and therefore we can no longer govern on the cheap. The state needs to rethink the tax structure from top to bottom, and all possible types of tax reform must be considered, including the dreaded income tax. An honest, apolitical analysis of Florida’s tax structure is the very least we should expect to gain from the struggle to reform property taxes; otherwise, all of this struggle will truly have been a Sisyphean task of the pointless kind.

S n ee t c h e s Even if the constitutional amendment passes the January vote, there will be challenges in the courts that follow its passage, particularly the portability of the Save Our Homes. Under portability, the longtime homeowners would be able to take their Save Our Home benefits with them wherever they moved in Florida. This particular element of the property tax amendment essentially creates a privileged class of Star-bellied Sneetches, namely those who have owned a home in Florida for a long time. Those of us who recently relocated or decided to buy a home for the first time in Florida would not have stars upon ours and will be the Plain-bellied sort. If two home buyers purchase identical houses in the same neighborhood at the same time, we would expect that they would pay the same amount of property taxes, right? Under the portability of Save Our Homes, this is not true if one of the home buyers is a long-time resident of Florida. Long-time residents

are like the Sneetches with stars upon thars, and that star entitles them to pay less property tax than a newer resident who is like a Sneetch with no star upon thars. Not only do newer residents not get invites to frankfurter roasts, or picnics or parties or marshmallow toasts, they have to pay higher taxes than their neighbor – forever. Furthermore, any increases in the tax rate will be born disproportionately by the Plainbellies. Fire department needs a new truck? Plainbellies will pay for a bigger share of it. Need a new school? You can bet the Star-bellies will not be paying their fair share. What if the federal government implemented a similar benefit for income tax based on when your ancestors arrived in the country? If your family tree has deeper roots, you pay a lower tax than if you are a first-generation American. Oh, your ancestors arrived on the Mayflower? You are entitled to pay much less in income tax as a result. How long would it be before such a system would be struck down (not that it would ever make it into law in the first place)? Somehow, we are doing the equivalent with the portability of Save Our Homes, and I can’t believe that if it passes on January 29 that it would survive a challenge in the courts. By the way, I never wanted to go to your marshmallow toast, anyway.

T h e H o u s i n g Sec t o r a n d F l o r i d a ’ s E c o n o m y: Housing has gone from an eag l e t o a n a l ba t r o s s . W i l l i t s o o n bec o me a vulture?

When the housing sector was running at full steam, it helped the U.S. and Florida’s economies to soar like an eagle. In 2004, 2005, and a portion of 2006, the economy was running at a frenetic pace. Housing prices and construction employment were both growing at a China-like pace. In Florida from 20042006, employment in the construction sector grew at an average of more than 10% per year. This rate helped boost the economy and turned on the afterburners for an economy that had already emerged from recession

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a Summa r y

and was expanding at an improving pace. Florida was, indeed, soaring like an eagle in the midst of this historic housing boom. Every party must come to an end, and, inevitably, the housing revelry has ended. The housing hangover that we are now experiencing is in direct proportion to the size of the boom. The eagle has now become an albatross around Florida’s neck. The sector that generated an average 10% job growth for the previous three years is now shedding jobs. Other sectors that were at ground zero of the housing boom are suffering as well: the retail sector, in particular building supply and garden stores, are losing jobs, finance as it relates to housing, and other areas that are directly tied into the construction or purchase of houses. The housing slowdown has certainly hampered economic growth in the state, but will it ultimately drive Florida and/or the U.S. into recession? Is the housing market poised to become a vulture hovering over the corpse of an economic expansion that it helped to fuel and then, subsequently, helped to snuff out? Over the course of 2007, there were various predictions about the Florida economy, with some observers estimating a 60% or 70% probability of recession. These predictions have turned out to be incorrect, and as we near the end of 2007, the job losses that have affected housing-related sectors continue to remain contained. What will 2008 hold in store for the economy? There is a greater amount of economic uncertainty currently surrounding the economic outlook than there has been in recent memory and, perhaps, there is as much uncertainty as there was during parts of the 1970s. The Federal Reserve Bank has cut interest rates twice in response to concern over the economy and may not be finished just yet. The federal government is rolling out a mortgage plan designed to limit the impact of adjustable rate mortgages and prevent an anticipated surge in foreclosures in the first half of 2008. The Bush administration plan, like the actions of the Federal Reserve Bank, will not be a panacea for what ails the housing sector. The excess supply of housing will not instantaneously be absorbed as a result of

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

cutting interest rates or freezing ARMs; only time will help, and, as a result, we expect the next couple of quarters to be filled not only with consternation but also with much slower economic growth than we have been experiencing.

Hig h l ig h t s o f t h e F l o r i d a F o r eca s t 2007-2010 • Payroll employment forecasted to grow at 1.7% in 2008, with growth accelerating to 2.8% in 2009 and easing to 2.6% by 2010. • High-growth sectors during 2008-2010 forecasted to include Professional and Business Services (6.1%), Transportation, Warehousing and Utility (3.1%), Finance (2.4%), and Education and Health Services (2.4%). • Florida’s housing sector has gone from an eagle to an albatross. Will it soon become a vulture? • Housing starts hit their nadir in 2008, but by 2010, housing starts will return to the same levels they were at the start of the decade. • The Construction sector continues to shed jobs in 2008, but employment growth resumes in 2009 and accelerates into 2010. • Gross State Product growth slows to 4.3% in 2008 before recovering to average 6.0% growth in 2009-2010. • Unemployment rates rise through the first half of 2008 and stabilize at a more sustainable 4.2% through the end of the forecast horizon. • Personal income growth decelerating from 6.6% in 2007 to 6.2% in 2008; growth drifts upward from there to hit 6.4% in 2010. • Retail sales to contract in the 1st quarter of 2008, exhibit moderate growth in the 2nd quarter, and average 4.4% growth in the second half of the year. Over the 2009-2010 time span, retail sales will grow at an average pace of 5.7%.

F l o r i d a Summa r y

Ou t l o o k f o r F l o r i d a 2007-2010 G r o s s S t a t e P r o d uc t

The Florida economy will see accelerating growth over our forecast horizon after slowing through the first three quarters of 2008. Aggregate output of the stateâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s nominal Gross State Product (GSP), the statelevel analogue to Gross Domestic Product, expanded at a rate of 7.1% in 2007. From 2007 to 2010, GSP will grow at an average rate of 5.4%. During this period, growth will be the strongest in 2010 at 6.1%, after slowing to 4.3% in 2008 and rising again to 5.9% in 2009. This predicted level of growth is above the nominal GDP growth rate forecast for the national economy during the same time period (4.53%). Nominal Gross State Product is expected to reach nearly $880 billion by 2010 as Florida continues closing in on becoming a trillion-dollar economy. P e r s o n a l I n c o me , Re t ai l Sa l e s , a n d A u t o Sa l e s

Personal income growth will decelerate through the rest of 2007 and through 2008, with growth averaging 6.3% during 2008-2010. Growth will begin to strengthen in 2009 and then flatten out in 2010. Real disposable income is expected to grow an average of 4.7% per year from 2008 through 2010 after another spike in inflation, and the housing slump depresses growth in 2007 to 3.5%. In 2009 and 2010, receding price inflation and a resurgent economy will, once again, power real disposable income growth of 5.0% and 4.6%, both of which are above average growth rates during the previous 10 years. Near record highs for energy prices, coupled with surging property taxes and property insurance rates, will continue to be a drain on consumerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s budgets. This year, prices have oscillated between $2 and $3, and, currently, are near the top of that range. An uneventful hurricane season kept things from being any worse. High energy prices, the housing market, taxes, and insurance has worked to erode consumer confidence and spending to some extent. This will lead to the slowest growth in retail spending since 2001,

with a 2008 growth of just 2.3%. The slowdown in spending growth will be pronounced at the beginning of the year thanks to the downward pull of the abovementioned factors and post-holiday shopping fatigue. Consumers will begin spending more freely again in 2008-2010, during which annual average growth of retail sales will be 5.7%. Retail spending will reach nearly $300 billion in 2009 and approach $316 billion the following year The persistence of gasoline prices near the $3-pergallon level and a general softening of consumer confidence continue to hamper purchases of trucks and SUVs. Vehicle fuel efficiency remains an important characteristic in the decision to purchase new vehicles for consumers. Foreign manufacturers of fuel-efficient (hybrid and gasoline) vehicles continue to gobble market share at the expense of American firms, who still continue to struggle as they try to adapt to the new economic environment in which they find themselves. We are forecasting an easing of energy prices, but large declines in energy prices are not in the cards, and the general slowing of the economy will both conspire to bring new passenger car and truck registrations down for a third straight year in 2008. Domestic auto dealers will still have to offer incentives and low- or no-interest financing to get consumers to purchase vehicles over the next year. After two years of declines, we are forecasting vehicle registrations to begin to grow again in 2009, but total registrations will only be at 1999 levels. E mp l o y me n t

Payroll employment growth in the state is expected to grow by 1.6% for 2007; this figure is compared to national job growth of 1.3% for the same year. For the next three years of our forecast horizon, employment growth should continue to outpace that of the nation overall (1.4% U.S. average payroll employment growth, 2008-2010) and will average 2.4% in Florida. The growth rate will accelerate from the second half of 2008 through 2009, and new jobs will be created at an annual rate of 2.8% in 2009, before growth eases back to 2.6% in 2010.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a Summa r y

The Construction sector, which had experienced blistering double-digit growth during the housing boom, will continue to show the effects of the significant cooling in the housing market. Housing starts have fallen dramatically and are expected to decline further and hit bottom in 2008. Cumulative job losses could approach 30,000 by the end of 2008, after which a recovery in homebuilding is expected to take hold. Job growth will reappear in 2009 and will accelerate into 2010 and hit 3.4% in that year. The overall level of employment in 2010 will be around the same level as the housing boom peak employment level reached in 2006. The Professional and Business Services sector is a sector that continues to show robust growth in Florida and in the nation as well. 2008 growth is expected to come in at 3.8%, and we are forecasting this growth to accelerate, along with the overall economy, to 7.6% in 2009 before tapering slightly to 6.9% in 2010. The Transportation, Warehousing, and Utility sector should also see growth accelerate in 2008 through 2010, with growth rising to 1.9% in 2008 and 3.6% in 2009 before further accelerating to 3.9% in 2010. This surge in growth follows energy-related stagnation in 2007. The Transportation, Warehousing, and Utility sector growth has been hampered by volatile energy prices in the past couple of years that resulted in employment growth dropping from 3.8% in 2005 to a forecast growth of -0.3% for 2007. As energy prices settle in the future and as the economy enjoys a rebound from the housing woes, this sector will resume its upward trend. This sector will be further buoyed by ongoing growth in international trade due, in part, to record lows in the value of the dollar. Manufacturing will continue to contract in Florida and throughout the nation as well. Between 2007 and 2009, an additional 8,600 jobs will be lost. The two factors continue to drive the fall in manufacturing employment, increasing pressure from emerging economies and increasing productivity of labor. The weak dollar is also helping U.S.-manufactured goods gain some competitiveness in the midst of this sectorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s contraction. The hemorrhaging of jobs from this sector will have slowed in 2009, and we are predicting job growth to return to this sector in 2010.

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

U n emp l o y me n t

Unemployment rates in the state averaged an unsustainable 3.3% in 2006 and will continue to gradually rise to near 4.2% in 2008. Unemployment rates in the state will continue to remain below unemployment rates at the national level, which are expected to rise to 5.0% and fall back to 4.6% from 2008 to 2010. Job losses in a few sectors will put upward pressure on unemployment rates, but growth in the remaining sectors should be able to absorb much of this excess labor.

Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 1999

2000

2001

2002

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch) U.S. (%Ch) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch) U.S. (%Ch) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch)

423.8 5.3 5.1 434.3 3.6 8.6 380.0 3.5 3.0 442.6 6.1 453.3 4.1

457.5 8.0 8.0 457.5 5.3 8.6 398.4 4.8 4.8 471.3 6.5 471.3 4.0

478.6 4.6 3.5 468.8 2.5 6.6 410.5 3.0 1.9 497.4 5.5 484.9 2.9

495.5 3.5 1.8 478.5 2.1 0.7 428.4 4.4 3.1 522.7 5.1 497.3 2.6

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

2.3 1.8 4.0 4.2

2.3 2.1 3.8 4.0

F l o r i d a F OR E C A ST

2003

2004

2005

December 2007

2006

Personal Income and GSP 514.4 565.2 616.8 663.3 3.8 9.9 9.1 7.6 3.2 6.1 5.9 6.6 487.1 521.4 552.6 578.4 1.8 7.0 6.0 4.7 3.2 11.8 7.4 5.2 442.4 470.8 494.1 512.0 3.3 6.4 5.0 3.6 2.2 3.6 1.7 3.1 607.2 666.6 713.5 559.0 6.9 8.6 9.8 7.1 520.4 548.1 585.1 609.9 4.6 5.3 6.7 4.3

Employment and 0.7 0.5 1.6 1.6 4.7 5.7 4.7 5.8

Labor Force (Household Survey 1.9 3.1 4.0 3.8 1.5 2.5 3.1 3.2 5.3 4.7 3.8 3.3 6.0 5.5 5.1 4.6

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Ch

Population (thous) (%Ch) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch)

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

(%Ch)

2.4 2.9 -6.8 3.5 -0.8 -2.3 -0.1 1.5 1.0 2.7 2.7 9.4 0.8 1.9 8.5 0.1 1.3

2.2 3.7 -1.8 5.7 -0.1 -2.6 1.2 1.8 3.4 3.2 2.5 7.3 2.8 2.4 5.2 3.8 3.7

0.0 1.3 -7.8 3.6 -4.9 -6.4 -4.1 -0.9 -0.2 -0.4 1.4 2.8 3.1 1.8 0.3 -2.4 2.9

-1.1 0.1 -10.3 1.2 -6.0 -3.7 -7.2 -2.8 -0.2 -1.2 1.2 0.2 2.8 0.4 -5.6 0.4 1.7

-0.3 1.1 -1.2 4.2 -4.4 -3.4 -4.9 -3.2 0.5 -0.2 2.3 1.3 3.8 1.9 -3.6 3.4 1.1

1.1 3.4 0.2 10.2 0.2 -2.1 1.5 1.6 3.4 2.7 3.8 5.1 3.0 4.6 -2.0 0.4 1.4

1.7 4.0 -0.8 12.3 1.2 -1.8 2.7 3.8 4.1 4.2 5.0 6.3 2.5 2.8 0.2 1.6 1.4

t ab l e s

Total nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. & Business Services Edu. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

1.9 2.6 -7.6 8.2 0.3 -2.5 1.6 1.2 2.7 2.0 3.2 3.9 2.5 1.6 -0.5 -1.0 1.9

Population and Migration 15,798.1 16,089.4 16,396.5 16,717.5 17,034.6 17,417.1 17,802.9 18,134.2 1 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.2 2.2 1.9 63.0 63.2 69.5 69.0 74.5 86.0 76.5 69.6 -10.9 -6.7 1.6 0.4 10.3 -0.4 9.3 17.3

163.4 112.3 51.1

158.4 110.9 47.5

168.0 124.7 43.3

183.1 133.9 49.2

208.3 158.9 49.4

Housing 238.7 272.8 182.5 211.6 56.2 61.2

204.0 157.4 46.6

1.2

3.3

3.1

1.5

2.9

Consumer Prices 2.8 4.7

5.0

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch) U.S. (%Ch) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch) U.S. (%Ch) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch)

423.8 5.3 5.1 434.3 3.6 8.6 380.0 3.5 3.0 442.6 6.1 453.3 4.1

457.5 8.0 8.0 457.5 5.3 8.6 398.4 4.8 4.8 471.3 6.5 471.3 4.0

478.6 4.6 3.5 468.8 2.5 6.6 410.5 3.0 1.9 497.4 5.5 484.9 2.9

495.5 3.5 1.8 478.5 2.1 0.7 428.4 4.4 3.1 522.7 5.1 497.3 2.6

707.2 6.6 6.5 601.8 4.1 1.8 530.2 3.5 3.5 751.8 5.4 627.7 2.9

751.1 6.2 5.1 628.9 4.5 3.8 554.6 4.6 3.4 783.8 4.3 643.6 2.5

798.5 6.3 5.0 659.6 4.9 6.5 582.5 5.0 3.7 830.1 5.9 668.7 3.9

849.7 6.4 5.1 691.6 4.9 6.4 609.2 4.6 3.3 880.4 6.1 695.4 4.0

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

2.3 1.8 4.0 4.2

2.3 2.1 3.8 4.0

1.6 2.1 4.2 5.0

1.9 2.0 4.2 4.8

1.9 1.9 4.2 4.6

1.2 1.7 -0.5 -2.6 -2.2 -2.0 -2.3 1.9 1.8 1.0 1.5 3.8 3.1 3.1 0.4 0.2 1.9

1.6 2.8 0.6 1.4 -1.2 -2.0 -0.9 3.6 2.2 2.5 2.9 7.6 2.7 1.6 0.8 1.0 1.2

1.4 2.6 -0.3 3.4 0.6 -1.1 1.4 3.9 2.5 1.0 2.8 6.9 1.5 0.8 1.3 3.0 1.2

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) 0.7 0.5 1.9 3.1 4.0 3.8 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.5 2.5 3.1 3.2 2.6 4.7 5.7 5.3 4.7 3.8 3.3 3.7 4.7 5.8 6.0 5.5 5.1 4.6 4.6 Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change)