Florida and Metro Forecast December 2008 by UCF College of Business

Florida & Metro Forecast 2008-2011

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

Published December 2008

Message From D ea n T h o ma s L . K e o n

A b o ut U n i v e r s it y o f C e n t r al F l o r ida ( U C F ) T h e Un i ve r s i t y o f C e n t r a l Fl o r i d a i s a public, multi-campus, metropolitan

Since the last Florida forecast was published, it has been confirmed that we have entered into the longest and deepest recession since the 1980s. Between our weak housing market and growing unemployment rates, was there really any question? I think the real question is when will it end?

r e s e a r c h u n i v e r s i t y, d e d i c a t e d t o serving its surrounding communities with their diverse and expanding populations, technological corridors, and international partners. The mission of the university is to offer high-quality undergraduate and graduate education, student development, and continuing education; to conduct research and creative activities; and to provide services that enhance the intellectual, cultural, environmental, and economic development of the metropolitan region, address national and international issues in key areas, establish UCF as a major presence, and contribute to the global c o m m u n i t y.

A b o ut t h e C o lle g e o f B u s i n e s s A dmi n i s t r ati o n The College of Business Administration a d v a n c e s t h e u n i v e r s i t y ’s m i s s i o n and goals in providing intellectual leadership through research, teaching, and service. The college is striving to enhance graduate programs, while maintaining the strong undergraduate base. The college delivers research and quality business education programs at the undergraduate, masters, doctoral, and executive levels to citizens of the state of Florida and to select clientele n a t i o n a l l y a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y.

Unfortunately, our economy is not expected to experience dramatic improvements any time soon. In fact, Florida is struggling more than many other states. It may be 2011 before our state’s economy will flourish again! This forecast examines Florida’s uncertain economic outlook for the next three years. While much of the information is grim, it appears that there may be a light at the end of the tunnel. We just have to be patient. There is reason to be optimistic. Next month we will have a new president. Barack Obama is busy appointing new cabinet members that will develop an economic plan to take our country in a new direction. Let us hope that “direction” points to the southeast and helps our state! I want to wish everyone a Happy New Year and I look forward to addressing you again in 2009!

n o e K . L s a m o h T Sincerely,

Thomas L. Keon Dean

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

F lo r i da F o r eca s t 2008 - 2011 December 2008 Report

Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Barbie Barontini, Editor Elaine Vogt, Administrative Assistant Amanda Silvestri, Researcher Erin Garlow, Researcher Laura Burkstrand, Researcher Ana Restrepo, Marketing Intern

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright ÂŠ 2008 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved.

This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitivenessâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.

TABLE OF CONTENTS Florida Summary................................................. 5-10 Florida Forecast Tables...................................... 12-17 Florida Forecast Charts...................................... 19-26

Tab l e o f c o n t e n t s

Florida News Summaries....................................... 27 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach.......... 29-33 Gainesville......................................................... 34-38 Jacksonville....................................................... 39-43 Lakeland............................................................ 44-48 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach............... 49-53 Naples-Marco Island......................................... 54-58 Ocala................................................................. 59-63 Orlando-Kissimmee.......................................... 64-68 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville......................... 69-73 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent.............................. 74-78 Tallahassee........................................................ 79-83 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater.................... 84-88 Industry Location Quotient..................................... 89

F l o r i d a Summa r y

F l o r i d a ’ s E c o n o m y: T h e Rece s s i o n i s U g l y, Da r k , a n d Deep. De s pi t e g o v e r n me n t d eb t pi l i n g up i n h eap s , w e h a v e mi l e s t o g o bef o r e g r o w t h l eap s , mi l e s t o g o bef o r e g r o w t h l eap s .

Per Capital Income

The credit crunch that began with the subprime mortgage meltdown of August 2007 and devolved over the course of 2008 into a widespread credit freeze has plunged the U.S. into a recession that is already 12 months old. That makes this recession already 50% longer than the two recessions that preceded it. Housing has been central to this business cycle and, in Florida, the role of housing has been even more pronounced. When the housing sector was booming, so was Florida’s economy. Growth was phenomenal, and the unemployment rate fell well below the already low rate of unemployment in the rest of the nation. Housing was a blessing that eventually became a curse. This curse will keep Florida in a deeper recession that will last longer than the U.S. recession. The glut of housing will keep one of Florida’s historically key growth industries struggling until 2012. 2009 is lost in Florida, and we must look to 2010Q2 for data to start coming out of the economy that indicates Florida is back on a growth path. Even then, growth will accelerate very slowly, and by the end of 2011, we will once again hear the economic engine of the state roar as we get back to the level of growth we have come to expect from this economy.

T h e Laug h e r C u r v e The State’s Fiscal Viability Threatened by the Recession; yet, We Vote in More Constitutional Amendments for Special Interest Tax Breaks and Chisel Away the Tax Base Even Further

November 2008 has come and gone and, with it, another election in Florida has passed. For the second straight election, we have passed constitutional amendments that have reduced taxes for some subset/special interest group. Forget the fact that we are in the deepest recession in decades and struggling to fund the most basic services that government provides: education, public safety, and infrastructure at already insufficient levels. Florida is killing us with these taxes, just killing us. How can we bear to exist under such an oppressive tax structure? Give me some tax relief! Having lived in both California and Massachusetts, I am always amused by the constant complaining about taxes in Florida. Since this complaining manifests itself in one constitutional amendment after another, further strapping state and local governments, I decided to look a little deeper into these complaints about the tax burden in Florida. Figure 1. Laugher Curve This led me to the nonprofit 70000 think tank: the Tax Foundation. The Tax Foundation (http:// 65000 www.taxfoundation.org) issues Connecticut reports on a variety of tax-related 60000 issues, including a report on the tax burden of each of the 50 Massachusetts New Jersey states. So I downloaded the most New York 55000 recent data from an August 7, Wyoming Maryland 2008 report and, lo and behold, 50000 there was Florida, 47th on the Nevada Washington Colorado New Hampshire California Virginia listing of tax burden by state. Hawaii Illinois Florida Minnesota The list ranked the states from 45000 Rhode Island Delaware Alaska Pennsylvania highest tax burden (New Jersey Nebraska Texas Vermont Kansas Michigan in 1st) to lowest tax burden. Wisconsin North Dakota 40000 Oregon South Dakota Louisiana Florida had a higher tax burden Ohio Iowa Maine Arizona Tennessee North Carolina Missouri Georgia than Wyoming (48th), Nevada Montana Idaho Indiana New Mexico Oklahoma Utah 35000 (49th), and Alaska (50th). South Carolina Kentucky Arkansas Alabama The report also lists per capita West Virginia Mississippi 30000 income for each state, and I 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 thought it might be interesting Tax Burden Rank Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a Summa r y

to do a scatter plot of tax burden and per capita income. So, I sorted the data in descending order of tax burden (highest to lowest) and made the plot. The vertical axis displays per capita income in dollars, and the horizontal axis is the tax burden ranking, so as you move left to right along the axis, tax burden is decreasing. Once I made the plot, I also fit a non-linear curve to the data, the U-shaped curve on the scatter plot I have dubbed the “laugher” curve. The name of my curve is a play on the Laffer curve, named after the father of supply-side economics who posited that tax revenue collected was positively related to tax rate. If you raise the tax rate, tax revenue will increase, but only up to a point. If you increase the tax rate beyond that point, tax revenues collected actually decline (the driving notion is that higher tax rates discourage work). So, if you are on the bad side of the Laffer curve, you can actually increase tax revenue by decreasing the tax rate. The laugher curve doesn’t imply a causal relationship between tax burden and per capita income, but it is a curious little curve. The shape of the curve suggests as tax burden is lowered from the highest tax burden states, per capita income actually falls up until a point. Past this point, further reductions in tax burden start to raise per capita income. The laugher here is that Florida is already the 47th-lowest tax burden, and the two states with higher per capita income and lower tax burdens are Nevada and Wyoming. Further cuts to Florida’s tax burden are unlikely to raise per capita income, as Nevada has the gaming industry to fund public spending and Wyoming has oil and natural gas. Over time, the opposite may be true if cuts in taxes lead to an underfunding of education and infrastructure in the state, this may ultimately cause income growth to slow. The laugher is that if we persist in mindless tax cutting, the joke might ultimately be on us.

F r o m t h e I E C Vau l t s : A n I d ea W h o s e Time M a y Ha v e J u s t A r r i v e d They say when life gives you lemons, make lemonade. Well, the state of Florida’s economy is sucking on a big old lemon right now, and it is causing severe fiscal heartburn. The budget is in disarray, and the state is struggling with huge spending cuts in an attempt to deal with revenues that have plummeted. Perhaps in this time of crisis, some changes can be implemented that in a normal state of affairs would not go over very well. I am thinking of changes that will both help ease the budget crisis and help improve education and make sure that Florida’s education system can compete both nationally and internationally. With these things in mind, I am reprinting an excerpt from a Florida & Metro forecast issued nearly two years ago that called for reform of the Bright Futures program and for freeing 6

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

universities from the shackles of mediocrity placed on them by absurdly low tuition. Taken from the 1st Quarter (March) 2007 Florida & Metro Forecast:

Valuable Things are Not Cheap, Cheap Things are of No Value – From a Fortune Cookie

B r ig h t F u t u r e s : Dimmi n g F l o r i d a ’ s P r o s pec t s The economy in Florida is engaged in a competition. This competition is not limited to adjacent states or even to the United States as a whole. This contest is global, and in order to succeed in this competition, Florida’s workforce must have world class educational opportunities. High paying, low skill jobs are a relic of a bygone era. The opportunities for a person to earn a good living by working a physically challenging job are few and far between and growing scarcer. Some of our fathers or grandfathers may have worked in these jobs, raised a family, and owned a home and a new car. They may have even retired from the same company that they first worked for upon entering the labor force. Those days are gone. Statistics show that a person entering the workforce today can expect to have held ten jobs by the time they are 40. Job security is also a thing of the past. Today the best thing a worker can aspire to is employment security, but even this is not guaranteed. Education and training over the course of an employee’s working life are essential to achieving employment security. Workers must continually hone and upgrade their skill set or else run the risk that their job is outsourced and they are left with skills that have reduced market value. K-12 education is, of course, an important component of the overall educational system in Florida, but perhaps more important is the state university system. A recent consultant’s report1 delivered a dismal assessment of the state of Florida’s higher education system. One could argue some of the points raised in this report regarding the roles and objectives of individual universities within the system as well as the role of private institutions in the state; however, in the system-wide analysis, there are some salient points made. The scope of the report defies full coverage, but two points I believe are worthy of discussion here. 1 Proposing A Blueprint for Higher Education In Florida: Outlining The Way To A Long-Term Master Plan For Higher Education In Florida, Pappas Consulting Group 2007

F l o r i d a Summa r y

The first point has to do with tuition rates throughout the state system. Florida is dead last among the 50 states in total educational revenues per full-time equivalent (FTE) student. Florida is 46th in tuition per FTE. Florida does a better job than many states when it comes to appropriations per FTE, but there is little solace to be found in that fact, given the previous two rankings. The solution is very simple: free up the state universities to set their own tuition rates, and let market forces work their magic. The implementation of this fix is unfortunately complicated by the second point, the Bright Futures Scholarship program. The Bright Futures program is, for politicians, right up there with kissing babies and apple pie. For the Florida system of higher education, Bright Futures is an albatross around its neck. Raising tuition is complicated by the fact that increased tuition rates automatically increase the state’s contributions toward higher education. The two scholarship programs under the Bright Futures program guarantee recipients either 100% of tuition and fees or 75% of tuition and fees. The program also provides benefits to those choosing to attend private schools based on the tuition of a comparable public institution and the percentages state above. The program is flawed in other regards as well. The academic requirements to merit the Florida Medallion Scholars Award (75% of tuition) are absurdly low. A student must have a 3.0 grade point average in high school and a composite (reading and math) SAT score of 970. These levels of SAT scores correspond to percentiles that are far too low to warrant any merit-based scholarship, let alone one that pays 75% of tuition and fees. A student who scores 490 on the critical reading portion of the SAT and a 480 on the math portion meets the Bright Futures requirement. That reading score represents the 44th percentile and the math score represents the 36th percentile. Meritorious? These SAT scores are below average and should not be rewarded with any scholarship, let alone a 75% scholarship. The GPA requirement is also extremely low. A 3.0 is a B average; while this is good enough to warrant admission to some of the state’s universities, it again cannot justify any merit-based scholarship. 55% of Florida schools received grade of B or lower, earning a 3.0 grade point average in schools that are below average themselves is not an accomplishment that should be rewarded by a 75% reduction in tuition. Some other statistics shed some light on the excesses of the current incarnation of the Bright Futures. At the University of Florida, 96% of admitted students are on Bright Futures – 96%!!! The percentage of admitted students at the University of Central Florida that receive Bright Futures is 89%. Nine out of 10 students are getting at least a 75% scholarship at UCF; it must be tough being the one out of 10 that doesn’t get that money. With the bar set so low, our universities are more likely to trip than to reach great heights.

The state university system is in critical condition, and without some dramatic changes in the Florida economy, the people of the state will continue to fall behind in the global competition for jobs and prosperity. What could be done to at least partially address the problems plaguing the state university system? 1. Raise the standards for the Bright Futures Scholarship program. Top students should be rewarded with scholarships, not below average students. 2. Remove the link between the award amounts provided through Bright Futures and the rate of tuition at Florida’s universities. A fixed dollar award insulates the legislature and the state’s budget from changing tuition rates at the state’s universities. 3. End Bright Futures support for students choosing to attend private universities and colleges in the state. It is not the obligation of the state to subsidize private higher education. 4. Reallocate the savings from the Bright Futures scholarship program to K-12 education throughout the state. 5. Allow, with oversight, the universities within the state system to set their tuition and fees structure to best meet the goals of each individual university. In today’s globally competitive economy, education is essential to individual workers and to the economy as a whole. Better funded universities ensure workers will have the skills and the ability to continually upgrade these skills in order to successfully compete now and in the future.

F l o r i d a’ s H o u s i n g M a r ke t It’s [Still] a Great Time to Buy, but You Better Have a High FICO and a Big Down Payment. We are nearing the bottom in the housing market. No, really. We are forecasting housing starts to hit their nadir in 2009Q2. In that quarter, starts will be just 14% of what they were at the peak of the housing boom. Builders have cut the flow of new inventory into the housing market; now we must wait for the existing inventory to come into balance before the downward pressure on prices is released. Figures 2 and 3 depict data from the housing market for existing homes as released by the Florida Association of Realtors (FAR). As you look at these charts you can clearly see the housing boom turned bust. Sales (Figure 2) have fallen dramatically from the peak of the boom, as have median prices (Figure 3). Any market in which there exists an excess supply will see prices decline as the market mechanism gropes its way toward a new equilibrium. Prices continue to fall as housing

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a Summa r y Figure 2. Housing Sales

Florida

Single Family, Existing Homes 30000 Realtor Sales

Moving Average

25000 20000 15000 10000

When supply and demand come back into balance, the fall in home prices will finally stop. The big problem continues to be the lack of credit availability. We have swung from one extreme to another as far as mortgage availability is concerned. During the peak of the housing boom, all one needed was a pulse and a pencil to fill out the application to get a $500,000 mortgage. Now, even borrowers with outstanding credit are required to have very large, often prohibitively large, down payments. Another problem plaguing housing lending has to do with getting accurate appraisals. In a market full of foreclosure and short sales, how do you find comparable sales to gauge the value of a house?

5000

Data Source: Florida Association of Realtors 0

08 nJa 07 nJa 06 nJa 05 nJa 04 nJa 03 nJa 02 nJa 01

nJa

Figure 3. Median Housing Prices

Florida

Single Family, Existing Homes $300,000.00 Median Sales Price

Moving Average

$250,000.00 $200,000.00 $150,000.00 $100,000.00 $50,000.00

Data Source: Florida Association of Realtors $-

08 nJa 7 0 nJa 6 0 nJa 5 0 nJa 4 0 nJa 3 0 nJa 2 0 nJa 1 0 nJa 0 0 nJa 9 9 nJa 8 9 nJa 7 9 nJa 6 9 nJa 5 9 nJa 4 9 nJa

inventories remain elevated across the state. However, the steep drop in prices has stimulated sales. As you can see above, sales have been above the 12-month moving average in Florida for the past 7 months of reports from the FAR. This is, of course, good news, unless this uptick in sales is a temporary blip, a hiccup in the data. Given what has been transpiring in the national economy, it is unclear whether or not this trend of increased sales can be maintained. Prices have fallen substantially, as the chart above clearly displays. This large of a price decrease has most certainly driven the recent surge in sales, and looking at the recent months of data, it seems as though this price decline will continue in the near future. This should work to insure that sales will continue to remain above their 12-month moving average in the months ahead. 8

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

Highl ights o f the Flori da F o r ecast 2008-2011 • Florida’s job losses to continue to accumulate until the middle of 2010. From 2007 to 2010, Florida will lose a total of 315,000 payroll jobs. Meager job growth resumes in 2010Q3 and gradually accelerates through 2011. • Payroll employment forecasted to shrink by 2.6% in 2009; after contracting by 1.3% in 2008, growth remains negative in 2010 (weighed down by Q1 and Q2) before finally resuming growth at 1.5% in 2011. • The only sector during 2009-2011 to average positive growth is forecasted to be Education and Health Services (2.5%). Professional and Business Services and Leisure and Hospitality both will contract slightly on average (-0.03%). The Professional sector, however, will surge in 2011 as the recovery takes root. • Florida’s housing construction sector bottoms out later and lower than expected in 2009Q2, reaching just 39,200 starts at an annual rate. This level of starts represents only 14% of the peak number of starts reached in 2005Q4: a stunning 86% decline in starts from peak to trough. • Housing starts will climb at a very slow pace. In 2011Q4, housing starts will recover to levels that will be less than half the peak level reached in 2006Q1. • The still disturbingly large inventory of houses and the credit freeze will conspire to cause further declines in prices in most parts of Florida through much of 2009. • The Construction sector will continue to shed jobs in 2009 at a double-digit pace, but job losses slow in 2010 to -4.8%, and the bleeding slows to a trickle in 2011 when the sector loses jobs at a rate of just -0.1%. The second half of 2011 will be the first time since 2007Q1 that this sector added jobs.

F l o r i d a Summa r y

• Real Gross State Product (GSP) growth was near zero in 2007 and contracted slightly in 2008 (-0.2%). Growth will turn very negative in 2009, contracting at -2.3% before accelerating to 2.7% in 2011. • Unemployment rates rise toward 8.4% through the first half of 2010 before slowly declining to 8.2% by the end of 2011. • Personal income growth decelerated to 3.3% in 2008 and will fall further to just 1.7% in 2009 before accelerating to 3.3% in 2010 and to 4.8% in 2011. • Retail sales growth will contract for three quarters straight from 2008Q3 through 2009Q1. 2009Q2 will turn positive thanks in part to the second federal stimulus plan. Over the 2010-2011 time frame, real retail sales will grow at an average pace of 6.2% as consumers come back to the land of the living.

Outlo o k f or F lor i da 2008- 2 0 1 1 Gro s s S tat e P ro duct The Florida economy continues on a downward path that has turned into a death spiral. This most unpleasant descent was triggered by the burnout of the housing engines that began when the housing engine stalled, like an idling engine in desperate need of a tune-up or perhaps even more extensive repairs. Sputtering and stalling over the last seven quarters, the remainder of 2008 offers no promise of a turnaround, and the outlook for 2009 has grown more uncertain with each passing day. Built upon the shifting sands of the U.S. economy, the third quarter forecast for Florida is presented below, with the old forecasting adage echoing loudly in the background: “If you must forecast, forecast often.” Real Gross State Product (GSP) growth, the state-level analogue to real Gross Domestic Product, stayed just slightly above zero for 2007 and will finish 2008 with growth that has turned slightly negative. In 2009, the contraction will worsen significantly as real GSP will contract at -2.3%. 2010 offers the promise of positive growth rates, albeit an anemic 0.6% rate of expansion. 2011 will give us the strongest growth of real GSP since 2006, as Florida’s economy is expected to expand by 2.7%. A much stronger growth rate to be sure, but still paltry when compared to the average growth rate over the four year span from 2003 to 2006, which was a brawny 5.2% Nominal Gross State Product is expected to reach nearly $797.5 billion by 2011 as Florida continues closing in on becoming a trillion-dollar economy, a threshold that keeps getting further away and one whose crossing we have now pushed back until 2015.

P e r s o n a l I n c o me , Re t ai l Sa l e s , a n d A u t o Sa l e s Personal income growth, both real and nominal, continues a deceleration that began in 2007 and will continue through 2009. Personal income growth will bottom out at a 1.7% average in 2009. 2010 and 2011 will exhibit a steady acceleration in personal income growth as the economy begins to gain momentum after coming out of this multi-year contraction. Real personal income is expected to grow at an average of just 2.1% from 2009 through 2011, well down from the average growth rate during the housing boom when real personal income growth averaged 5.1%. Real disposable income growth will continue to be depressed by the floundering economy, though price deflation will boost real income in 2009, as will an anticipated second round of tax rebate checks. Florida consumers have been, and will continue to be, worn out from rising unemployment rates, rising foreclosures, shrinking payroll employment, declining home prices, and huge losses in stock market wealth. The bursting of the commodities bubble eases some of the pain that record food and fuel costs were inflicting upon consumers, but record oil and gasoline prices this past summer have made an impact that will resonate throughout the economy and whose effects will still be evident years from now with or without a bailout for the Big Three U.S. automakers. Oil prices plummeted from $147 per barrel to just $45 per barrel and perhaps even lower still. Gasoline prices have fallen dramatically as well from $4.25 to just $1.60 per gallon. This is welcome relief to the consumer as a smaller share of household budgets are going into the tank, but it can hardly offset the preponderance of negatives that are currently weighing down consumer confidence and consumer spending. Consumers have been bludgeoned by one bad event after another, and the cumulative impact of these many negative events is showing up in consumer spending, which can be expected to contract through the end of the year and into next. The temporary boost to retail spending brought about by the tax rebate checks from the first stimulus package is long forgotten. A second round of checks may help to spur some spending, but given the deterioration of the economic environment since the last checks were sent out, it would be reasonable to expect that a greater percentage of the second rebates might not get spent but go toward paying down debt or held onto for fear of an even rainier day. Retail sales declined in the 3rd quarter of 2008 and will tumble further in the 4th quarter of 2008 and contract yet again in the 1st quarter of 2009. This year’s holiday shopping season will be one of the worst in many years. The false hopes of Black Friday numbers that were up versus last year have quickly given way to the reality of declining retail sales and impending bankruptcies in the retail space. They also point to a even tougher budgetary problem for governments that depend on sale tax revenues. Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a Summa r y

The recession and credit crunch will conspire to bring new passenger car and truck registrations down for a fourth straight year in 2009. After four years of declines, we are forecasting new vehicle registrations to grow slightly again in the later half of 2009, but total registrations will be nearly 50% less than levels reached in 2004. In 2010 and 2011, an improving economy and the aging fleet of U.S. vehicles will combine to drive new vehicle registration growth higher but at levels that are still below levels that prevailed in the late 90s.

E mp l o y me n t Payroll employment growth in the state is expected to shrink by 1.3% for 2008; this figure is compared to the national job growth of -0.1% for the same year. Job losses accelerate in 2009 as payroll employment contracts to 2.6% and continues into 2010. Even though payroll begins to grow in the second half of the year, the full year will see a -0.1% decline in jobs. Once payroll growth takes root, it will slowly gain momentum throughout 2011, a year when job growth is expected to come in at 1.5%. When job growth finally does turn positive in 2010Q2, it will be after 12 straight quarters of negative payroll growth–3 years of job losses! The Construction sector, which has been under siege since peaking during the housing boom, will continue to show the painful effects of the credit crunch and languishing residential and commercial construction markets. Housing starts have fallen dramatically and are expected to decline further, and the bottom is expected to be hit in the end of 2009Q2 as credit market woes have compounded the misery. Cumulative job losses in the sector will reach nearly 207,000 by the end of 2010, after which the cautious and long-awaited recovery in homebuilding will have started to gain momentum. Job growth will not return to this sector until the second half of 2011 when growth is expected to average a respectable 1.4%. The Professional and Business Services sector is a sector that, once the economy gets past the recession, will resume robust growth in Florida. In 2011, job growth is expected to surge to 6.7% after three years of job losses; the growth in this generally high skilled and high-paying sector will be a welcome event. The Information sector will continue to shed jobs through 2010; newspapers continue to struggle to find the right business model in an environment that has been both complicated by technology as well as in some areas rendered nearly obsolete. 2011 will be the first year of job growth in this sector after eight of the nine previous years, including five straight years leading up to 2011 that featured job losses. The one sector that has escaped job losses during this recession thus far and is expected to continue to expand through the duration of it, and beyond, is the Health and Education sector. In particular, the Health sector must have received its recession immunization and appears to be

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

resistant to the effects of this downturn. During 2009-2011, employment in this sector is expected to expand at an average rate of 2.5%. What is even more remarkable is that the average growth rate for payroll employment during the same time frame is -0.4%. Manufacturing will continue to contract in Florida through 2010. During the 2000-2010 time frame, a total of 146,000 jobs in manufacturing will have been lost. The dual forces of globalization and productivity gains in manufacturing have conspired to shrink employment in this sector. As the saying goes, “that which does not kill me, only makes me stronger;” this sector will emerge in 2011 as lean, sinewy, and competitive as it has been in decades. We are expecting to see job growth of 1.2% in this sector for the full year in 2011, and this will be for the first time since 2006 that manufacturing has gained jobs over the course of a year.

U n emp l o y me n t Unemployment rates in the state averaged less than 3.9% in 2005 and 3.4% in 2006, putting Florida’s unemployment rate more than a full percentage point below the historically low U.S. unemployment rate. What the housing boom gave, the credit crunch and housing bust have conspired to take away... and then some. Unemployment has surged higher than the national rate of unemployment, though we expect that the national rate of unemployment will catch up to Florida’s rate in 2009, and going forward, we expect them to equilibrate and track one another. How high does unemployment get? We are expecting unemployment to rise to 8.4% in the middle of 2010 where it will plateau for several quarters before slowly beginning to decline through the end of 2011. Like payroll employment, unemployment has been a lagging indicator of economic activity and will continue to rise even after the recession has ended.

Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2000

2001

2002

2003

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch Year ago)

457.5 8.0 8.0 457.5 5.3 8.6 398.2 4.9 4.8 471.3 6.5 471.3 4.0

478.6 4.6 3.5 468.8 2.5 6.6 410.3 3.0 1.9 497.4 5.5 484.9 2.9

495.5 3.5 1.8 478.5 2.1 0.7 428.2 4.4 3.1 522.7 5.1 497.3 2.6

514.4 3.8 3.2 487.1 1.8 3.2 442.1 3.3 2.2 559.0 6.9 520.4 4.6

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

2.3 2.1 3.8 4.0

0.7 1.6 4.7 4.7

Total nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't. Population (thous.) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous.) (%Ch Year ago) Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous.) Housing Starts Single Family (thous.) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous.) (%Ch Year ago)

December 2008 2004

2005

2006

2007

Personal Income and GSP 565.7 614.4 668.5 699.3 10.0 8.6 8.8 4.6 6.1 5.6 7.1 6.1 521.8 550.6 582.9 594.3 7.1 5.5 5.9 2.0 11.8 5.9 7.9 1.4 471.1 488.9 514.8 522.2 6.5 3.8 5.3 1.5 3.6 1.4 3.5 2.8 607.3 670.2 716.5 734.5 8.6 10.4 6.9 2.5 548.6 588.8 609.8 609.9 5.4 7.3 3.6 0.0

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % C 0.5 1.6 3.1 3.9 3.6 1.7 1.6 1.2 2.4 3.0 3.1 2.3 5.7 5.3 4.7 3.9 3.4 4.0 5.8 6.0 5.5 5.1 4.6 4.6

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Chang 2.2 3.7 -1.8 5.4 -0.1 -2.6 1.2 1.8 3.3 3.2 2.5 7.5 2.8 2.4 5.4 3.8 3.7

0.0 1.3 -7.8 3.5 -4.9 -6.4 -4.1 -0.9 -0.2 -0.4 1.4 2.9 3.1 1.8 0.3 -2.4 2.9

-1.1 0.1 -10.3 1.2 -6.0 -3.7 -7.1 -2.9 -0.2 -1.2 1.2 0.2 2.7 0.4 -5.7 0.4 1.7

-0.3 1.1 -1.2 4.0 -4.3 -3.4 -4.8 -3.2 0.5 -0.2 2.3 1.4 3.8 1.9 -3.7 3.4 1.1

1.1 3.4 0.2 9.9 0.2 -2.1 1.4 1.6 3.4 2.7 3.8 5.2 3.0 4.5 -2.1 0.4 1.4

1.7 4.0 -0.8 11.9 1.2 -1.8 2.7 3.8 4.1 4.2 5.0 6.4 2.5 2.8 0.2 1.5 1.4

1.8 2.6 -6.5 7.5 0.2 -2.1 1.3 1.5 2.9 2.0 3.2 3.8 2.7 1.5 -0.9 -0.8 2.0

t ab l e s

F l o r i d a F OR E C A ST

1.1 0.5 0.0 -8.3 -4.1 -1.5 -5.3 0.1 1.6 0.5 -0.8 1.3 3.1 2.1 -0.1 0.2 2.6

Population and Migration 16,088.3 16,389.3 16,702.2 17,012.3 17,391.7 17,771.2 18,073.5 18,276.3 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.2 1.7 1.1 62.9 67.9 66.6 73.5 85.3 74.1 47.4 31.7 -0.2 8.2 -1.6 11.8 18.4 -13.0 -38.0 -23.6 158.1 111.5 46.7

167.6 125.7 41.9

182.7 133.6 49.1

207.7 159.9 47.9

238.8 183.1 55.6

Housing 272.9 204.8 211.6 156.3 61.3 48.5

101.5 74.7 26.8

3.0

2.5

1.7

2.6

3.0

Consumer Prices 4.5 4.2

3.3

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

457.5 8.0 8.0 457.5 5.3 8.6 398.2 4.9 4.8 471.3 6.5 471.3 4.0

478.6 4.6 3.5 468.8 2.5 6.6 410.3 3.0 1.9 497.4 5.5 484.9 2.9

495.5 3.5 1.8 478.5 2.1 0.7 428.2 4.4 3.1 522.7 5.1 497.3 2.6

514.4 3.8 3.2 487.1 1.8 3.2 442.1 3.3 2.2 559.0 6.9 520.4 4.6

722.4 3.3 4.2 593.7 -0.1 2.9 526.3 0.8 1.3 750.3 2.2 608.9 -0.2

734.8 1.7 2.1 605.4 2.0 2.7 542.2 3.0 2.3 746.3 -0.5 594.8 -2.3

758.9 3.3 2.6 614.8 1.6 1.5 548.5 1.2 3.3 762.7 2.2 598.5 0.6

795.8 4.8 3.9 631.1 2.7 2.0 562.4 2.5 3.2 797.5 4.5 615.0 2.7

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

2.3 2.1 3.8 4.0

0.7 1.6 4.7 4.7

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) 0.5 1.6 3.1 3.9 3.6 1.7 -0.4 -1.4 1.6 1.2 2.4 3.0 3.1 2.3 1.5 0.7 5.7 5.3 4.7 3.9 3.4 4.0 5.9 7.9 5.8 6.0 5.5 5.1 4.6 4.6 5.7 7.8

0.1 0.7 8.4 8.4

1.3 1.1 8.2 8.2

0.0 -0.1 -2.6 -4.8 -4.0 -3.7 -4.1 -0.4 -0.4 1.4 -0.7 -0.6 2.8 0.1 -2.7 1.6 -0.4

0.9 1.5 -2.2 -0.1 1.2 -1.8 2.7 1.8 1.2 -1.1 0.9 6.7 2.8 0.1 2.3 -2.2 0.2

2005

2006

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) 2.2 3.7 -1.8 5.4 -0.1 -2.6 1.2 1.8 3.3 3.2 2.5 7.5 2.8 2.4 5.4 3.8 3.7

0.0 1.3 -7.8 3.5 -4.9 -6.4 -4.1 -0.9 -0.2 -0.4 1.4 2.9 3.1 1.8 0.3 -2.4 2.9

-1.1 0.1 -10.3 1.2 -6.0 -3.7 -7.1 -2.9 -0.2 -1.2 1.2 0.2 2.7 0.4 -5.7 0.4 1.7

-0.3 1.1 -1.2 4.0 -4.3 -3.4 -4.8 -3.2 0.5 -0.2 2.3 1.4 3.8 1.9 -3.7 3.4 1.1

1.1 3.4 0.2 9.9 0.2 -2.1 1.4 1.6 3.4 2.7 3.8 5.2 3.0 4.5 -2.1 0.4 1.4

1.7 4.0 -0.8 11.9 1.2 -1.8 2.7 3.8 4.1 4.2 5.0 6.4 2.5 2.8 0.2 1.5 1.4

1.8 2.6 -6.5 7.5 0.2 -2.1 1.3 1.5 2.9 2.0 3.2 3.8 2.7 1.5 -0.9 -0.8 2.0

1.1 0.5 0.0 -8.3 -4.1 -1.5 -5.3 0.1 1.6 0.5 -0.8 1.3 3.1 2.1 -0.1 0.2 2.6

-0.1 -1.3 -3.2 -12.8 -6.0 -4.6 -6.7 -1.5 0.5 -1.7 -1.6 -2.4 3.3 1.5 -2.6 2.9 1.1

-1.5 -2.6 -1.0 -10.2 -8.6 -5.4 -10.2 -3.3 -2.4 -2.2 -2.3 -6.2 1.9 -0.4 -5.0 -0.1 -0.8

Population and Migration 16,088.3 16,389.3 16,702.2 17,012.3 17,391.7 17,771.2 18,073.5 18,276.3 18,464.8 18,615.9 18,783.9 18,984.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.2 1.7 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.1 62.9 67.9 66.6 73.5 85.3 74.1 47.4 31.7 26.2 20.3 28.2 37.0 -0.2 8.2 -1.6 11.8 18.4 -13.0 -38.0 -23.6 -17.1 -18.1 39.2 31.2 158.1 111.5 46.7

167.6 125.7 41.9

182.7 133.6 49.1

207.7 159.9 47.9

238.8 183.1 55.6

Housing 272.9 204.8 211.6 156.3 61.3 48.5

101.5 74.7 26.8

62.1 41.4 20.7

41.6 31.4 10.2

69.9 58.1 11.8

116.5 95.6 21.0

3.0

2.5

1.7

2.6

3.0

Consumer Prices 4.5 4.2

3.3

4.3

-0.9

2.4

2.8

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch Year ago)

724.2 4.3 5.3 595.8 0.6 3.1 529.1 1.7 3.6 750.4 2.4 612.9 0.5

725.5 2.9 4.2 589.1 -1.5 3.2 522.0 -0.6 0.5 753.9 1.9 608.5 -0.9

728.2 2.8 3.1 598.2 0.7 2.1 529.7 1.5 0.4 750.3 1.3 602.7 -1.3

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

-0.2 1.4 5.4 5.3

-0.5 1.9 6.4 6.0

-1.4 1.3 7.0 6.6

Total Nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't. Population (thous.) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous.) (%Ch Year ago) Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous.) Housing Starts Single Family (thous.) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous.) (%Ch Year ago)

731.6 2.8 3.7 603.1 2.0 3.3 545.6 4.1 1.7 748.1 0.2 598.6 -2.1

732.6 1.2 1.4 605.0 1.5 2.6 539.5 2.0 0.3 745.1 -0.7 595.1 -2.9

735.2 1.3 1.5 605.9 2.8 2.1 541.0 3.6 3.4 744.5 -1.3 592.7 -2.6

Personal Income and GSP 739.6 745.9 754.6 1.6 2.0 3.0 1.9 1.4 2.7 607.6 609.3 613.3 1.6 1.0 1.4 3.0 2.0 2.1 542.6 542.5 547.1 2.4 -0.6 1.4 4.0 3.5 3.1 747.5 753.2 759.7 -0.4 0.7 2.0 592.9 594.7 597.4 -1.6 -0.6 0.4

764.1 3.9 3.2 617.3 1.9 1.5 551.7 2.0 3.2 766.7 3.0 600.4 1.3

771.2 4.3 3.3 619.3 1.9 0.3 552.8 1.9 3.4 771.3 3.2 601.5 1.5

778.8 4.4 3.6 621.9 2.1 0.4 554.6 2.2 3.3 780.1 3.6 605.5 1.8

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) -1.7 -1.5 -1.4 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 7.4 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.4 7.2 7.7 8.0 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.4

788.9 4.5 3.7 627.0 2.2 1.2 559.0 2.2 3.3 790.8 4.1 611.2 2.3

801.1 4.8 3.9 634.0 2.7 2.3 564.9 2.4 3.1 802.9 4.7 617.9 2.9

814.3 5.6 4.4 641.7 3.6 4.1 571.3 3.3 2.9 816.0 5.8 625.3 3.9

1.0 1.0 8.4 8.4

1.2 1.1 8.3 8.3

1.4 1.1 8.1 8.2

1.7 1.2 7.9 8.0

0.5 0.8 -2.9 -2.0 0.4 -2.3 1.7 0.8 0.4 -1.3 0.0 4.0 3.0 0.1 1.0 -4.0 0.1

0.7 1.2 -2.8 -1.1 1.3 -2.0 3.0 1.4 0.9 -1.7 0.5 5.8 2.8 -0.1 2.7 -3.4 0.2

1.0 1.7 -2.0 0.1 1.5 -1.6 3.1 2.2 1.5 -1.3 1.1 7.5 2.8 0.0 3.1 -1.2 0.1

1.4 2.5 -0.9 2.6 1.5 -1.3 3.0 2.9 2.2 -0.2 1.8 9.4 2.7 0.6 2.3 -0.3 0.2

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) 0.1 -1.0 -5.4 -13.3 -6.0 -5.2 -6.4 -0.7 0.9 -1.2 -1.3 -1.6 3.3 1.8 -3.0 3.5 1.6

-0.2 -1.3 -0.9 -12.8 -5.9 -4.8 -6.4 -2.0 0.5 -1.7 -1.7 -2.5 3.5 1.6 -2.6 3.1 0.7

-0.9 -2.3 -1.6 -12.7 -6.9 -4.3 -8.2 -3.4 -0.6 -3.5 -2.5 -5.1 3.0 1.1 -3.7 2.1 0.1

-1.4 -3.0 -0.4 -11.4 -8.0 -4.7 -9.6 -3.7 -2.3 -4.4 -3.0 -6.2 2.2 -0.1 -5.1 -0.1 -0.4

-1.7 -2.9 0.3 -10.2 -8.8 -5.5 -10.4 -4.1 -2.7 -3.4 -2.7 -6.6 2.0 -0.5 -4.7 -0.4 -0.5

-1.7 -2.6 -1.6 -10.0 -9.2 -5.7 -10.9 -3.1 -2.5 -1.6 -2.0 -6.6 1.7 -0.5 -5.4 0.0 -1.0

-1.2 -1.9 -2.3 -9.2 -8.5 -5.7 -9.9 -2.5 -1.9 0.8 -1.3 -5.4 1.8 -0.3 -4.9 0.1 -1.2

-0.6 -1.1 -2.6 -8.2 -7.0 -5.0 -7.9 -1.5 -1.0 2.5 -0.9 -4.1 2.3 0.0 -4.1 3.5 -1.0

-0.1 -0.2 -2.6 -5.3 -5.0 -3.9 -5.5 -0.6 -0.5 2.5 -0.6 -1.6 2.7 0.0 -3.6 2.7 -0.6

0.2 0.4 -2.6 -3.0 -3.0 -3.3 -2.8 0.2 -0.1 1.1 -0.6 0.8 3.0 0.3 -2.4 0.5 -0.2

0.4 0.6 -2.7 -2.7 -1.1 -2.7 -0.3 0.5 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 2.5 3.0 0.1 -0.7 -0.4 0.0

Population and Migration 18,446.2 18,487.5 18,524.9 18,559.5 18,595.7 18,634.2 18,674.4 18,716.4 18,759.9 18,805.7 18,853.4 18,903.6 18,956.2 19,011.3 19,068.6 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 28.3 24.0 20.0 17.4 19.1 21.6 23.3 25.4 26.9 29.2 31.3 33.5 35.9 38.2 40.3 -8.9 -25.2 -38.6 -46.3 -32.7 -10.1 16.6 45.9 41.2 35.5 34.1 32.1 33.2 30.6 28.7 Housing 51.1 41.0 10.1

66.9 44.7 22.3

54.8 37.1 17.7

50.1 33.2 16.9

41.9 31.1 10.8

39.2 29.5 9.8

39.8 29.1 10.7

45.6 35.9 9.6

64.8 53.7 11.1

76.1 63.2 12.9

87.4 74.5 12.9

98.3 84.5 13.8

109.8 92.1 17.7

122.3 98.6 23.8

135.7 107.2 28.5

4.8

5.3

2.1

0.3

-1.2

-2.5

Consumer Prices 0.0 1.3 2.3

2.8

3.1

3.0

2.7

2.4

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 3. Employment Quarterly* 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7,967.2 7,913.3 7,847.3 7,787.9 7,735.6 7,705.8 7,695.7 7,704.4 7,718.8 7,734.7 7,742.0 7,768.5 7,811.0 7,866.0 7,932.0

Manufacturing

368.2

362.8

354.6

344.9

335.9

329.5

324.5

320.9

319.1

319.6

321.0

322.0

323.1

324.4

325.9

Durable Goods

247.9

243.8

236.9

229.1

222.2

217.3

213.6

210.9

209.9

211.2

213.0

214.5

216.1

217.6

219.4

Wood Products

16.9

16.6

16.4

16.1

15.5

15.2

15.1

15.2

15.3

15.4

15.7

15.9

16.2

Computer & Electronics

47.4

47.6

46.9

46.5

46.2

46.7

46.0

45.3

44.5

44.4

44.3

44.4

44.6

Transportation Equipment 1,633.1 1,596.3 1,522.6 1,465.9 1,416.8 1,387.9 1,378.1 1,373.8 1,374.1 1,381.7 1,390.7 1,400.8 1,415.3 1,432.8 1,454.9 Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

120.3

119.0

117.7

115.8

113.7

112.2

111.0

110.0

109.2

108.5

108.0

107.5

107.1

106.7

106.6

31.4

31.0

30.9

30.8

30.7

30.6

30.5

30.4

30.3

30.2

30.1

7,599.0 7,550.5 7,492.6 7,443.0 7,399.7 7,376.2 7,371.1 7,383.5 7,399.7 7,415.0 7,421.0 7,446.5 7,487.8 7,541.6 7,606.1 6.3

6.4

6.3

6.2

6.1

6.0

Construction

526.1

511.5

499.0

488.9

472.7

460.3

453.2

449.0

447.7

446.3

440.8

440.2

442.9

446.8

452.4

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

243.9

240.1

238.6

235.9

234.0

232.7

232.6

232.3

232.5

233.2

233.7

234.2

235.8

238.3

240.6

Wholesale Trade

360.0

358.2

355.7

351.8

350.2

349.4

348.9

348.3

348.5

349.1

349.7

351.7

354.3

356.7

Retail Trade

997.4

989.0

974.8

963.5

963.2

973.3

982.7

988.0

987.6

983.9

979.1

975.2

970.3

970.9

977.4

Information

157.7

156.9

154.6

152.1

150.3

148.4

147.0

145.8

144.9

144.8

145.9

147.3

148.8

149.3

149.2

Prof. & Business Services

1,306.9 1,287.9 1,262.2 1,245.9 1,221.0 1,203.3 1,194.3 1,194.5 1,201.8 1,213.2 1,224.0 1,242.3 1,271.4 1,304.4 1,339.7

Admin. & Support

771.1

754.2

728.5

712.6

688.5

671.8

663.5

669.1

678.4

685.6

700.7

726.8

756.9

789.2

Prof. Sci & Tech

457.2

455.1

454.6

453.8

452.4

451.3

451.1

452.3

453.9

457.2

459.8

462.2

464.5

466.9

78.7

78.6

78.7

78.8

79.0

79.4

79.9

80.3

80.8

81.3

81.8

82.4

83.0

83.6

Financial Activities

Mgmt. of Co.

535.3

531.0

527.0

523.4

520.6

520.3

518.5

517.3

518.0

518.7

519.9

522.8

527.3

Real Estate & Rent

170.7

171.8

170.8

170.5

169.9

169.7

170.0

170.3

170.8

171.4

171.8

172.4

173.0

173.8

174.6

Fin. & Insurance

364.6

359.3

356.2

352.9

350.7

350.9

350.3

348.2

346.5

345.8

346.1

346.3

346.9

349.0

352.7

Edu. & Health Service

1,036.7 1,043.8 1,048.5 1,052.4 1,057.2 1,061.6 1,067.3 1,076.7 1,086.1 1,094.0 1,099.3 1,108.5 1,116.5 1,124.4 1,129.3

Education Services

137.8

139.2

140.1

Health Services

898.9

904.7

908.4

912.2

917.6

923.2

929.9

939.8

949.6

957.6

963.1

972.7

980.9

988.8

993.6

946.8

944.0

941.7

939.2

941.9

939.2

938.6

939.4

941.7

942.4

940.0

941.0

942.2

945.5

343.4

342.1

344.6

347.0

349.6

351.7

352.7

353.8

355.3

356.7

358.0

357.6

356.4

354.8

352.9

Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

139.6

138.5

137.4

136.8

136.6

136.4

136.2

135.8

135.6

135.7

1,138.5 1,139.4 1,139.4 1,136.4 1,132.7 1,129.4 1,127.3 1,131.1 1,130.1 1,128.0 1,127.0 1,126.8 1,127.1 1,127.4 1,129.0 131.5

131.6

131.7

136.1

135.1

132.2

131.1

130.6

1,006.5 1,007.9 1,007.9 1,004.9 1,001.2

997.8

995.7

995.0

995.8

995.9

996.1

996.5

996.8

998.4

132.0

131.5

*Quarterly at an annual rate

140.2

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

131.5

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 4. Employment Annual 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7,069.4 7,160.0 7,169.1 7,250.5 7,499.2 7,799.9 8,002.5 8,040.2 7,939.6 7,731.2 7,725.0 7844.38

Manufacturing

466.0

443.4

416.7

398.5

399.4

404.1

405.1

388.6

365.1

333.7

320.2

323.9

Durable Goods

310.4

297.8

276.5

263.1

266.9

274.1

277.7

263.1

245.5

220.5

211.2

216.9

Wood Products

16.7

17.2

18.1

17.6

18.2

18.7

18.9

17.9

16.8

15.5

15.2

15.8

Computer & Electronics

69.7

67.2

59.1

52.8

51.9

50.8

49.5

48.5

47.3

46.3

44.6

44.5

Transportation Equipment Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

2,056.6 1,938.7 1,829.8 1,775.1 1,766.7 1,772.3 1,768.9 1,710.7 1,604.8 1,412.2 1,380.1 1,426.0 155.6

145.6

140.2

135.4

132.5

130.1

127.4

125.5

119.6

113.2

108.9

107.0

36.1

34.6

33.5

32.7

31.8

30.6

30.8

31.1

30.7

30.5

30.2

6,603.4 6,716.6 6,752.4 6,851.9 7,099.9 7,395.8 7,597.4 7,651.6 7,574.5 7,397.5 7,404.8 7,520.5 8.7

8.0

7.2

7.1

6.6

6.4

6.3

6.2

6.0

Construction

453.8

469.6

475.1

494.2

543.0

607.5

652.4

598.4

522.1

468.8

445.9

445.6

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

246.0

243.8

236.8

229.2

232.8

241.8

245.3

245.6

241.9

233.8

232.9

237.2

Wholesale Trade

317.2

316.4

315.7

317.3

328.0

341.4

351.3

356.9

358.5

350.1

348.7

353.1

Retail Trade

936.5

933.0

921.6

919.4

944.7

984.0 1,003.8 1,009.1

992.4

970.7

984.7

973.4

Information

182.9

183.4

172.8

166.3

162.9

163.2

157.4

149.4

145.4

148.7

Prof. & Business Services

161.7

161.5

1,079.8 1,110.7 1,112.7 1,128.1 1,187.2 1,263.2 1,311.5 1,327.8 1,296.3 1,216.1 1,208.4 1,289.5

Admin. & Support

659.7

678.3

673.7

680.1

717.0

763.2

789.4

796.0

760.2

684.1

674.2

743.4

Prof. Sci & Tech

357.1

366.5

370.0

378.1

397.2

424.3

444.7

453.0

457.4

453.0

453.6

463.4

63.0

65.8

69.0

69.9

73.1

75.8

77.4

78.8

78.7

79.0

80.6

82.7

Financial Activities

462.9

469.3

474.9

485.6

504.2

529.6

546.4

542.1

533.3

521.2

517.8

522.2

Real Estate & Rent

143.5

147.0

150.2

153.4

162.2

172.4

178.2

173.2

171.2

170.0

171.1

173.5

Fin. & Insurance

319.5

322.4

324.7

332.2

342.0

357.3

368.3

368.9

362.1

351.2

346.6

348.7

Edu. & Health Service

819.1

844.2

867.3

899.9

927.1

950.2

975.9 1,006.5 1,039.8 1,059.6 1,089.0 1,119.7

Education Services

91.5

94.5

99.7

108.2

116.9

122.8

126.5

132.8

138.3

138.9

136.5

135.7

727.5

749.7

767.6

791.7

810.2

827.5

849.5

873.7

901.5

920.7

952.5

984.0

Mgmt. of Co.

Health Services Leisure & Hospitality

801.2

815.5

818.9

834.5

872.3

896.7

910.2

928.9

943.1

939.7

940.9

942.2

Other Services

293.9

299.4

310.2

317.2

324.3

329.8

332.9

343.2

343.8

350.3

355.9

355.4

Government

1,001.4 1,023.3 1,039.2 1,053.0 1,066.2 1,081.2 1,099.2 1,124.9 1,139.4 1,131.4 1,129.0 1,127.6

Federal Gov't.

125.0

121.7

122.2

126.3

126.8

128.7

127.7

128.0

131.7

131.6

133.6

130.6

State & Local Gov't.

876.4

901.5

916.9

926.8

939.4

952.4

971.5

996.9 1,007.8

999.9

995.4

997.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly* 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

724.2

725.5

728.2

731.6

732.6

735.2

739.6

745.9

754.6

764.1

771.2

778.8

788.9

801.1

814.3

Wages & Salaries

338.1

339.0

338.8

339.3

339.7

340.8

342.4

345.2

348.1

351.2

354.2

358.3

363.0

368.4

374.5

Other Labor Income

73.2

73.6

73.9

74.3

74.8

75.3

76.1

76.9

77.9

79.0

80.0

80.9

82.2

83.5

84.9

Nonfarm

39.7

40.1

40.8

40.9

41.1

41.5

41.8

42.0

42.1

41.9

42.4

42.9

43.5

44.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

Property Income

197.2

200.0

201.6

200.2

198.4

196.7

198.5

202.0

205.7

208.9

210.6

213.1

216.8

220.8

Transfer Payments

Farm

125.3

122.5

123.3

126.9

129.0

131.4

133.0

134.5

135.7

137.6

138.4

139.8

141.4

143.1

145.0

Social Insurance

51.6

51.9

51.7

52.1

52.4

52.5

53.5

53.7

54.1

54.8

55.8

56.3

56.8

57.6

Personal Income

595.8

589.1

598.2

603.1

605.0

605.9

607.6

609.3

613.3

617.3

619.3

621.9

627.0

634.0

641.7

Wages & Salaries

278.2

275.2

278.3

279.7

280.5

280.8

281.3

282.0

282.9

283.8

284.4

286.2

288.5

291.6

295.1

Other Labor Income

60.2

59.8

60.7

61.2

61.7

62.1

62.5

62.8

63.4

63.9

64.3

64.6

65.3

66.1

66.9

Nonfarm

32.7

32.6

32.9

33.7

33.8

33.9

34.1

34.2

34.0

33.7

33.8

34.1

34.4

34.7

0.2

0.3

0.2

0.3

Property Income

162.2

162.4

165.6

165.0

163.8

162.1

161.5

162.2

164.2

166.2

167.8

168.1

169.4

171.6

173.9

Transfer Payments

103.1

99.5

101.3

104.6

106.5

108.3

109.2

109.9

110.3

111.2

111.1

111.6

112.4

113.2

114.3

42.4

42.1

42.5

42.9

43.3

43.2

43.1

43.7

43.6

43.7

44.0

44.5

44.7

45.0

45.4

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations 1013.1

917.1

754.3

725.1

785.4

913.9

969.7

972.1

954.6

947.3

959.3

987.9

1072.8 1124.2

1183.8

Retail Sales (Billions $)

275.8

272.7

259.9

254.2

254.8

258.8

262.2

265.4

268.3

272.6

276.7

280.7

285.8

291.1

296.4

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

226.9

221.4

213.4

209.6

210.4

213.2

215.4

216.8

218.1

220.2

222.2

224.2

227.2

230.3

233.6

Billions 2000 Dollars

Farm

Social Insurance

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Personal Income

457.5

478.6

495.5

514.4

565.7

614.4

668.5

699.3

722.4

734.8

758.9

795.8

Wages & Salaries

228.4

239.2

247.1

258.7

279.5

303.0

325.2

335.5

338.1

340.5

349.7

366.1

Billions Current Dollars

Other Labor Income

45.1

47.6

51.8

56.2

61.5

68.2

71.1

72.2

73.4

75.1

78.5

82.9

Nonfarm

29.2

27.6

29.0

30.7

33.8

37.0

39.9

39.8

39.9

41.1

42.0

43.2

Farm Property Income

0.8

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.5

0.3

0.2

0.3

0.4

117.9

122.9

122.0

120.1

136.7

152.1

176.7

190.5

198.9

198.0

203.8

215.3

Transfer Payments

67.9

74.4

80.4

85.5

94.6

98.5

103.6

110.4

121.5

130.0

136.5

142.3

Social Insurance

33.3

35.5

37.1

39.1

42.5

46.4

49.8

51.1

51.7

52.4

54.0

56.6

Personal Income

457.5

468.8

478.5

487.1

521.8

550.6

582.9

594.3

593.7

605.4

614.8

631.1

Wages & Salaries

Billions 2000 Dollars 228.4

234.3

238.6

245.0

257.8

271.5

283.5

285.1

277.9

280.6

283.3

290.3

Other Labor Income

45.1

46.6

50.1

53.2

56.7

61.1

62.0

61.4

60.3

61.9

63.6

65.7

Nonfarm

29.2

27.1

28.1

29.1

31.2

33.2

34.8

33.8

32.8

33.9

34.0

34.3

0.8

0.9

0.7

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.3

Farm

117.9

120.4

117.8

113.8

126.0

136.3

154.0

161.9

163.5

163.1

165.1

170.8

Transfer Payments

Property Income

67.9

72.8

77.6

80.9

87.2

88.3

90.3

93.8

99.9

107.1

110.6

112.9

Social Insurance

33.3

34.8

35.9

37.0

39.2

41.5

43.4

42.5

43.1

43.8

44.9

1314.2

1405.2

1302.3

1396.9

1442.7

1449.6

1416.6

1242.1

952.2

848.5

958.3

1092.2

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations Retail Sales (Billions $)

185.2

191.2

196.6

206.5

225.2

245.0

263.7

271.0

270.4

257.5

270.8

288.5

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

185.2

187.2

189.9

195.5

207.8

219.6

229.9

230.3

222.2

212.2

219.3

228.8

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

ion & Health mployment

nds)

December 2008

charts

05 06 07 08 09 10 11

F l o r i d a F OR E C A ST

Florida Charts

Florida Personal Income 12%

(% change year ago)

10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Florida Real Gross State Product 10%

(% change year ago)

8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Florida Charts

Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate

Florida Construction Employment (Thousands)

700.0 650.0 600.0 550.0 500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

Florida Charts

Florida Manufacturing Employment 500.0

(Thousands)

450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment 1650.0

(Thousands)

1600.0 1550.0 1500.0 1450.0 1400.0 1350.0 1300.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Florida Charts

Florida Financial Activities Employment (Thousands)

550.0 500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Florida Professional & Business Services Employment (Thousands)

1400.0 1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0 700.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

Florida Charts

Florida Education & Health Services Employment 1200.0

(Thousands)

1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0 700.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Florida Information Employment 190.0

(Thousands)

180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Florida Charts

Florida Federal Government Employment (Thousands)

140.0 135.0 130.0 125.0 120.0 115.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Florida State & Local Government Employment (Thousands)

1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

Florida Charts

Florida Housing Starts 300.0

(Thousands)

8.5% 8.0%

250.0

7.5%

200.0

7.0%

150.0

6.5%

100.0

6.0%

50.0 0.0

5.5% 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Total Private Housing Starts 30 year Mortgage Rates

5.0%

New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations 40%

(% change year ago)

20% 0% -20% -40% -60%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Florida Charts

Florida Gross State Product (% change year ago)

12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 FL Gross State Product

Florida Employment (Thousands)

8500.0 8000.0 7500.0 7000.0 6500.0 6000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Wage & Salary Employment

Florida Consumer Price Index (% change year ago)

6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 FL CPI

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

F l o r i d a Ne w s Summa r ie s

19 state parks could close for financial reasons • The state government is asking all parks to reduce the amount of money they requested for their 2009-2010 fiscal budgets. They were asked to reduce operating expenses by at least 10%. • As a solution to these budget cuts, the Division of Recreation and Parks recommended closing 19 state parks temporarily in 2009. • It is also possible that three state managed parks may be turned over to property owners. Source: Gainesville Sun, November 13, 2008 Employers save $610 million on workers’ comp • On January 1, 2009, workers’ compensation insurance will decline by 18.6%, effectively saving employers in Florida approximately $610 million. • Originally, it was recommended to reduce it by 14.1%, but an additional 4.5% was later added. • Since 2003, the year that reforms were passed for workers’ compensation, the rate has declined by over 60%. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, October 16, 2008 Fla. ranks 32nd in state competitiveness • The Beacon Hill Institute’s state competitiveness survey ranked Florida number 32 after analyzing categories such as environmental policy, business incubation, and technology. • For government and fiscal policy, Florida ranked number one. Florida ranked number 11 for business incubation. Infrastructure was one of the worst rankings, coming in at number 47. • The number one state overall was Massachusetts. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, November 19, 2008 Florida unemployment rate hits 15-year high • In October, the unemployment rate reached 7%, the highest it has been in 15 years. • Out of 9.3 million people in the labor force, 655,000 people are now jobless. • This rate is higher than the national rate of unemployment, which is 6.5%.

Florida’s tech exports climb 8 percent • Between 2006 and 2007, high-tech exports rose 8% to $13 billion, accounting for about one-third of Florida’s total exports. • Florida now ranks third in the U.S. for technology exports, according to AeA. • Nationally, high-tech exports fell 3% and imports increased 3%. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, September 23, 2008 Study: Florida is U.S. cruise capital • Florida ranks the highest for both the number of residents that take cruises, as well as the number of people that depart from the state’s ports. • In 2006, the cruise industry made up about $6.06 billion in Florida’s direct spending, accounting for 126,546 jobs. • Florida’s ports include Port Canaveral, Tampa, Miami, Port Everglades, and Jacksonville. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, October 15, 2008 Florida rated No. 3 in foreclosures • According to the U.S. Foreclosure Index, Florida has 64.2/1,000 pre-foreclosure filings. • In the third quarter, there were 29,591 real estate owned filings in Florida. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, October 10, 2008 State backs tougher emissions • Governor Crist has proposed a rule that, in 2013, would require auto manufacturers to reduce emissions from their cars and trucks by about 30% in three years. • The new rule could mean an increase in the prices of vehicles, as well as serious declines in the sales of light trucks and sport utility vehicles. • Forty percent of carbon dioxide emissions in Florida come from tailpipe emissions. Source: Gainesville Sun, December 3, 2008

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, November 21, 2008

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Metros

December 2008

F l o r i d a F OR E C A ST

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B eac h – O r m o n d B eac h

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is comprised only of Volusia County. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway, which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500.

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach metropolitan statistical area is expected to show positive growth in some of the economic indicators measured in this forecast and decline in others. Personal income is expected to average 2.9 percent growth, while average annual wage will be one of the lowest levels in the state at 35.6. Annual wage growth is expected to average 2.4 percent. The employment growth rate, while declining, ranks one of the highest in the state, averaging -0.6 percent. The Deltona MSA will experience the most growth in the education and health services sector, followed by other services, with growth rates of 2.6 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively. Unemployment will be one of the worst in the state, averaging 8.5 percent annually.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 500,413 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 249,691 in January 2008 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 4.9% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 12,252 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Volusia County Schools – 6,816 employees • Halifax Medical Center – 3,136 employees • Volusia County – 2,600 employees • City of Daytona Beach – 1,159 employees • Memorial Hospital – 1,000 employees • Embry Riddle Aeronautical University – 900 employees • Memorial Hospital West Volusia – 853 employees • Sherwood Medical – 850 employees • The Daytona Beach News-Journal – 829 employees • Daytona Beach Community College – 743 employees Source: Southeast Volusia Chamber of Commerce

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Hospital closes part of elderly psych unit • Florida Hospital Oceanside will be closing its psychiatric unit that specializes in care for people 65 and older. Only about 50 people have been treated by the facility since its January opening. • Admission to the unit was on a voluntary basis by those seeking help, which led to inadequate demand and empty beds. • The hospital is seeking to obtain regulatory designation as a Baker Act facility for the elderly which would fill more beds and allow the unit to remain open. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, November 20, 2008 Volusia council extends commuter rail agreement • An extension was made to the legal agreement behind the commuter rail project between the state Department of Transportation and Volusia County and other Central Florida counties. • The rail would stretch for 61 miles, connecting Poinciana and DeLand. Supporters say that it is vital to the region, whose population will double by 2050.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B eac h – O r m o n d B eac h

• The project–cost of trains, track improvement, and stations–will cost about $615 million. The federal government will pay for half of the project; the state will pay for 25%; local governments will pay for the rest. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, November 14, 2008 Flagler sees jump in Hispanic population • Flagler County ranked 14th in the nation among counties with the largest Hispanic population growth between 2000 and 2007. • Despite the economy and the second highest unemployment rate in the state, Hispanics are moving to Flagler from South Florida and the Northeast. • The Flagler County school district has also seen a 254% increase in Hispanic enrollment since 2000. About 10% of students are Hispanic. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, November 3, 2008 Grant provides training boost to Palm Coast company • Daytona State College received a $1.4 million grant from the State of Florida to begin a customized workforce on-the-job training program. • Since 1993, the program has provided over 300 businesses with more than 100,600 trained employees. • By remaining in Flagler County, the program has preserved 1,000 jobs, and has added 700 new jobs to the county by moving other divisions to Palm Coast. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, November 1, 2008

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

Palm Coast officials put land-for-gas deal in works • Plans are being made with Tampa Electric Company to build a natural gas pipeline across Flagler County connecting the company’s Jacksonville division with its Daytona Beach division. • The pipeline will operate as a franchise agreement between TECO and Daytona Beach. • It is unlikely that current residents of the area will be using the natural gas because of the costs involved to retrofit homes currently using electric power, but projected development will greatly benefit from the use of this new energy source. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, November 1, 2008

De l t o n a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Da y t o n a B eac h â&#x20AC;&#x201C; O r m o n d B eac h

Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate 10.0%

(percent)

1.2

1.4

1.6

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product 10500.0

(Millions 2000 $)

9500.0

6.0%

9000.0

4.0%

8500.0 8000.0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate

7500.0

Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment 175.0 170.0 165.0 160.0 155.0 150.0 145.0 140.0 135.0

10000.0

8.0%

2.0%

0.8

(Thousands)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Gross Metro Product

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Deltona Payroll Employment

-2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B eac h – O r m o n d B eac h

Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL*

December 2008 Forecast

2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

16.2 3.6 5.9 10.3 13.3 1.4 32 26.3 34.7 2.8

16.3 3.6 5.9 10.4 13.4 2.7 32.1 26.5 34.9 3.4

16.3 1.3 5.9 10.4 13.4 1.7 32 26.4 35.1 2.9

16.3 1.1 5.9 10.4 13.4 2.6 32 26.4 35.3 2.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

16.4 0.7 5.9 10.4 13.4 -0.2 32 26.2 35.7 2.2

16.5 1.7 6 10.5 13.4 0.1 32.2 26.2 35.9 2.1

16.7 2.7 6 10.7 13.5 0.6 32.5 26.2 36.1 2.2

16.8 3.2 6.1 10.8 13.5 0.9 32.7 26.2 36.3 2.2

17 3.7 6.1 10.9 13.6 1.4 32.9 26.3 36.6 2.4

17.2 4.1 6.2 11 13.7 1.8 33.2 26.4 36.8 2.6

17.5 4.6 6.3 11.2 13.8 2.4 33.7 26.6 37.1 2.7

17.8 5.4 6.4 11.4 14 3.5 34.1 26.9 37.4 2.9

166.8 0.8 8.6 0.4 158.2 0.8 10.3 -2 33 0.4 5.4 24.5 2.2 2.8 3.1 7.5 -0.5 16.9 2.4 32.8 3.4 22.2 -0.6 8.6 0.2 1.3 -6.1 22.9 0.3

167.6 1 8.6 1.8 158.9 1 10.3 -1.9 32.9 -0.1 5.4 24.4 2.3 2.8 6.5 7.5 -0.5 17.3 4.8 33.1 3.3 22.2 -0.7 8.5 -0.5 1.3 -4.6 22.9 0.2

168.4 1.3 8.7 1.9 159.7 1.3 10.4 -1.1 33 0 5.5 24.4 2.3 2.9 6.8 7.5 -0.1 17.6 6.6 33.4 3.2 22.2 -0.4 8.5 -1.2 1.3 -2.7 22.9 0.3

169.4 1.9 8.7 1.9 160.7 1.9 10.5 1.7 33.2 0.7 5.5 24.7 2.3 2.9 4.8 7.5 0.5 18.1 8.3 33.5 3.2 22.3 0.3 8.4 -2.1 1.3 -1.1 23 0.5

169.2 -1.9 9.7 -5.3 159.5 -1.7 12 -7.1 32.5 -2.8 5.4 24.6 2.3 2.8 -5.7 7.6 -4.6 18.3 -4.7 31.1 2.7 22.4 -0.1 8.3 0.2 1.3 -4.1 23.1 -0.9

167.9 -2.3 9.4 -7.8 158.5 -1.9 11.8 -8.1 32.2 -3 5.4 24.2 2.2 2.8 -7.9 7.6 -5.9 18 -4.5 31.1 1.8 22.4 0 8.4 1.4 1.3 1.6 23 -0.8

166.8 -2.3 9 -9.2 157.7 -1.9 11.4 -8.3 32.2 -2.4 5.4 24.1 2.2 2.8 -3.4 7.5 -4.3 17.5 -5.3 31.1 1.5 22.5 -0.7 8.5 3 1.3 -3.3 22.9 -1.2

165.9 -2.5 8.9 -10.7 157.1 -2 11 -10.7 32.5 -1.2 5.4 24.6 2.2 2.7 -5 7.5 -2.5 17.1 -6.5 31.2 0.4 22.3 -0.4 8.5 3.7 1.3 0.5 22.8 -1.5

165.4 -2.2 8.7 -10.1 156.7 -1.8 10.7 -10.9 32.7 0.6 5.4 25 2.2 2.7 -4.2 7.5 -1.4 16.7 -8.6 31.4 0.8 22.3 -0.4 8.5 2.9 1.3 0.5 22.8 -1.3

165.5 -1.4 8.6 -8.5 156.9 -1 10.5 -10.5 32.8 2.1 5.4 25.1 2.2 2.7 -3.3 7.5 -1 16.5 -8.3 31.7 1.9 22.3 -0.2 8.5 1.8 1.4 7.4 22.8 -0.7

165.9 -0.5 8.5 -6.2 157.4 -0.2 10.5 -7.3 32.9 2.3 5.3 25.1 2.2 2.7 -4.1 7.5 -0.5 16.5 -6 32.1 3 22.3 -0.5 8.6 1.1 1.4 5.9 22.9 -0.2

166.2 0.2 8.5 -3.9 157.7 0.4 10.5 -3.9 33 1.6 5.4 24.9 2.2 2.7 -2.4 7.5 -0.7 16.6 -3.3 32.3 3.5 22.3 -0.2 8.6 0.8 1.4 3.1 22.9 0.2

166.2 0.5 8.6 -1.5 157.7 0.6 10.4 -3.1 33 0.8 5.4 24.7 2.2 2.7 0.1 7.5 -0.8 16.7 -0.3 32.4 3.4 22.2 -0.5 8.6 0.8 1.4 1.7 22.9 0.3

9958.5 506.5 0.8 256.5 1.9 7.5 1118 789 329

9878.2 507.2 0.6 256.8 2.2 8.1 1028 846 181

9815.4 508 0.6 257.2 1.8 8.6 949 754 195

9769.9 509.1 0.7 257.7 0.6 9 903 679 224

9760 510.4 0.8 258 0.6 9.2 1123 941 182

9780.6 511.9 0.9 258.6 0.7 9.4 1323 1158 165

9820.9 513.2 1 259.4 0.9 9.5 1908 1717 192

9864.4 514.4 1 260.3 1 9.6 2321 2081 239

9875.2 515.7 1 261.1 1.2 9.6 2640 2430 210

*Quarterly an an annual rate

16.3 0.8 5.9 10.4 13.4 0.8 32 26.3 35.5 2.4

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

9940.2 10037.7 10142.6 10257.4 516.7 517.9 519 520.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 261.9 262.7 263.6 264.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 9.6 9.5 9.3 9.1 2915 3112 3277 3548 2707 2834 2892 3085 208 278 385 463

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B eac h – O r m o n d B eac h

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

December 2008 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

10.9 5.5 4 6.9 10.7 3.3 24.2 23.7 26.7 2.5

11.4 3.7 4.3 7.1 11 2.3 24.7 23.9 27.7 4

11.8 4 4.6 7.2 11.2 2 25.3 23.9 28.8 3.8

13 9.7 5 8 12 6.9 27.1 25 30 4.2

13.7 5.7 5.3 8.4 12.3 2.7 28.1 25.2 30.9 3

14.8 8.2 5.7 9.1 12.9 5.3 29.9 26.1 32.5 5.1

15.5 4.3 5.8 9.6 13.1 1.6 30.9 26.2 33.7 3.7

16 3.6 5.9 10.1 13.2 0.2 31.7 26 34.3 1.7

16.3 1.7 5.9 10.4 13.4 1.9 32 26.4 35.2 2.8

16.6 2 6 10.6 13.5 0.3 32.3 26.2 36 2.2

17.4 4.4 6.2 11.1 13.8 2.3 33.5 26.6 37 2.7

171.3 3.9 10.2 4.3 161 3.9 13.8 15.7 33.1 3.7 4.8 26 2.3 2.7 -2.7 7.3 5.5 20.6 7.7 30.5 -0.7 21.7 2.9 8.2 0.1 1.4 1.2 21.8 3.6

174.3 1.8 10.6 3.9 163.6 1.6 14.9 7.8 33.1 0 5 25.9 2.3 2.9 6.8 7.9 7.1 20.4 -0.9 30.5 0.2 21.6 -0.5 8.3 1.2 1.4 -0.6 22.8 4.4

172.6 -1 10.3 -2.7 162.3 -0.8 13.5 -9.4 33.4 1 5.3 25.8 2.3 3 3.5 8 1.7 19.3 -5.2 30 -1.8 22.2 3.1 8.2 -0.6 1.4 -0.6 23.2 1.9

170.5 -1.2 9.9 -3.9 160.5 -1.1 12.4 -8.2 32.9 -1.7 5.5 25.1 2.3 2.9 -2.5 7.8 -2.1 18.5 -4.3 30.9 3 22.4 0.9 8.3 0.4 1.3 -4.6 23.2 -0.3

166.5 -2.3 9 -9.4 157.5 -1.9 11.2 -9.5 32.4 -1.5 5.4 24.5 2.2 2.8 -5.1 7.5 -3.6 17.3 -6.2 31.2 1.1 22.4 -0.4 8.5 2.7 1.3 -0.2 22.9 -1.2

165.9 -0.3 8.5 -5.1 157.4 -0.1 10.5 -6.3 32.9 1.7 5.4 24.9 2.2 2.7 -2.4 7.5 -0.7 16.6 -4.6 32.1 3 22.3 -0.4 8.6 1.1 1.4 4.5 22.9 -0.1

168 1.3 8.7 1.5 159.4 1.2 10.4 -0.8 33 0.2 5.5 24.5 2.3 2.8 5.3 7.5 -0.2 17.5 5.5 33.2 3.3 22.2 -0.4 8.5 -0.9 1.3 -3.7 22.9 0.3

9430.6 10028.3 10355.9 10283.9 10211.2 478.1 487.5 496.1 501 505.3 2.2 2 1.8 1 0.9 233.4 239.3 245.2 249.4 254.2 2.9 2.5 2.5 1.7 1.9 4.5 3.7 3.4 4.2 6.3 6179 6363 4126 2194 1418 4779 5121 3100 1583 1009 1401 1242 1026 612 409

9805.8 508.7 0.7 257.4 1.3 8.7 1001 805 195

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

150.3 1.9 10.3 -5.6 140 2.5 8.8 5.8 31 -1 4.4 23.9 2.7 3.4 7.4 6.6 -3.4 15.8 18.1 26.2 1.2 19.4 0.9 7.1 -0.1 1.3 -10.1 20.4 2.5

153.2 1.9 9.6 -7.3 143.6 2.6 9.6 9.3 30.8 -0.6 4.7 23.6 2.6 3 -10.4 6.4 -2.3 16.4 3.8 28.2 7.7 19.6 0.8 7.6 6.8 1.4 2.5 20.6 0.9

158 3.1 9.4 -1.5 148.5 3.5 10.5 8.7 31.4 1.6 4.6 24.3 2.5 2.8 -6.3 6.5 1.2 17.4 6.3 30.1 6.7 20 2.2 7.8 2.9 1.4 2.4 20.7 0.5

9105 452.2 1.4 214.6 2.3 4.3 4445 3421 1025

9056.1 459.5 1.6 220.9 2.9 5.5 4785 4136 649

9077.1 467.7 1.8 226.8 2.7 5.2 6171 4990 1181

164.8 4.3 9.8 3.9 155 4.4 11.9 14 31.9 1.8 4.7 25 2.2 2.8 -2.1 6.9 7.2 19.1 9.8 30.7 1.9 21.1 5.3 8.2 4 1.4 0 21.1 2.1

9835.3 10094.5 513.8 518.4 1 0.9 259.9 263.2 0.9 1.3 9.5 9.4 2048 3213 1846 2880 202 334

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

G ai n e s v i l l e

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist counties and is located in the north-central portion of the state. This metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history museum.

The Gainesville MSA will have the second highest employment growth rate in the state, while declining, at -0.1 percent. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.4 percent, and personal income is expected to grow 2.8 percent annually. The growth in housing starts will be the worst in the state, averaging -0.9 percent annually. The fastest growing sector in the area will be leisure, followed by federal government, with average annual growth rates of 2.2 percent and 2.0 percent, respectively. Unemployment is expected to be one of the lowest in the state, averaging 5.4 percent.

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 257,099 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Alachua County population estimate of 240,082 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Gilchrist County population estimate of 17,017 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 135,702 in January 2008 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3.1% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 4,162 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • University of Florida – 35,000 employees • Shands Hospital – 8,225 employees • North Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,560 employees • Nationwide Insurance – 1,058 employees Sources: University of Florida and Gainesville Council for Economic Outreach

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Face of those in need changing in area • More and more college students and middle class families have turned to local charities and government programs for food assistance, and local food banks are having to turn people away. • In Alachua County the households receiving food stamps increased by 10.1% from August 2007 to August 2008. The director of Gainesville’s Bread of the Mighty Food Bank has reported that the bank has been receiving 40% more calls for food assistance than last year. Source: The Gainesville Sun, November 30, 2008 Alachua County halves high-school dropout rate • Alachua County public schools’ dropout rate fell from 6.6% in the 2006-07 school year to only 3.6% in the 2007-08 school year, the lowest rate since the 1998-99 school year. • The district attributes the reduction in dropouts to its dropout prevention initiatives, which include mentoring programs. • The county’s dropout rate still exceeds that of the state, which averages 2.6%. Source: The Gainesville Sun, November 24, 2008

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

G ai n e s v i l l e

Shands to close AGH • Shands HealthCare will close Shands AGH hospital next fall as part of a larger effort to reduce the system’s budget by $65 million over the next three years. • The hospital sustained $12 million in losses last year, a result of cuts in state and federal funding and increases in charity care among other reasons. • The programs and services offered at Shands AGH will be relocated to Shands Hospital at the University of Florida, and the hospital’s 1,150 employees are expected to be relocated to Shands UF or the new cancer hospital that is expected to open November 2009. Source: The Gainesville Sun, October 23, 2008 GRU unveils new solar incentives • Gainesville Regional Utilities plans to encourage the production of solar energy by purchasing the electricity from solar panels above market value, making solar energy production competitive or even profitable for the next 20 years. • The incentive, also called a “feed-in-tariff,” would replace cash rebates which are limited in amount, discouraging larger projects. Source: The Gainesville Sun, October 14, 2008 Gainesville leads the state with 1,600 new jobs • From August 2007 to 2008 the city of Gainesville led the state with the creation of 1,600 new jobs. While Alachua County’s unemployment rate in August, at 4.8%, was up from a year ago, at 3.2%, it was below Florida’s average of 6.5%. • Only four counties in Florida had lower unemployment rates in August. Source: The Gainesville Sun, September 20, 2008

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

G ai n e s v i l l e Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.5

Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0%

(percent)

8000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

7500.0

6500.0 6000.0 5500.0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

130.0 125.0 120.0 115.0

2.5

7000.0

135.0

110.0

Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product

5000.0

Gainesville Payroll Employment 140.0

1.5

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Gainesville Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Gross Metro Product

Gainesville Real Personal Income 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Personal Income

G ai n e s v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL*

December 2008 Forecast

2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

8.7 3.6 5.1 3.6 7.2 1.4 33.2 27.3 37.9 2.8

8.7 3.1 5.1 3.6 7.2 2.2 33.3 27.4 38.2 3.4

8.7 1.2 5.1 3.6 7.2 1.5 33.2 27.4 38.4 2.9

8.7 0.6 5.2 3.6 7.2 2.1 33.1 27.3 38.6 2.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

8.7 0.5 5.2 3.6 7.2 0.5 33.1 27.2 38.8 2.4

8.8 0.6 5.2 3.6 7.2 -0.3 33.2 27.1 39.1 2.3

8.9 1.5 5.2 3.6 7.2 -0.1 33.3 27.1 39.3 2.2

8.9 2.5 5.3 3.7 7.2 0.5 33.6 27.1 39.5 2.3

9 2.9 5.3 3.7 7.2 0.6 33.7 27.1 39.7 2.3

9.1 3.4 5.3 3.7 7.3 1.1 34 27.1 40 2.5

9.2 3.6 5.4 3.8 7.3 1.3 34.2 27.2 40.3 2.6

9.3 4 5.4 3.9 7.4 1.8 34.6 27.4 40.6 2.8

9.4 4.7 5.5 3.9 7.4 2.7 35 27.6 40.9 3

135.1 0.1 4.5 -7 130.6 0.4 5.7 -11.5 20.2 1.4 2.8 15.4 1.9 2 0.1 6.1 -3.6 11.3 -3.2 21.9 -0.3 15.3 6 4.8 -2 4.2 5.2 39.1 1.8

134.2 -1.2 4.3 -8 129.8 -0.9 5.6 -11.5 19.9 -1 2.8 15.1 1.9 2 0.6 6.1 -4.2 11.1 -5.9 21.9 0.6 15.2 3.7 4.9 -1.6 4.2 1.2 38.9 0

133.4 -1.7 4.2 -7.8 129.3 -1.5 5.4 -10.9 19.9 -1 2.8 15 1.8 2 -1.9 6 -3.8 10.8 -6.7 21.9 0.7 15.3 0.9 5 1.6 4.2 0.3 38.7 -1.1

132.8 -2.3 4.1 -10.9 128.7 -2 5.2 -11 20.1 -0.7 2.8 15.3 1.8 2 -4.8 6 -2.5 10.6 -8.7 22 0.4 15.2 -0.5 5 3.5 4.2 -0.3 38.5 -1.9

132.4 -2 4 -10.3 128.4 -1.7 5.1 -10.8 20.2 0.1 2.8 15.5 1.8 1.9 -3.9 6 -1.5 10.3 -8.8 22.1 0.8 15.2 -0.4 5 2.9 4.2 -0.2 38.4 -1.8

132.4 -1.4 4 -8.6 128.4 -1.1 5 -10.2 20.2 1.5 2.8 15.6 1.8 1.9 -3.3 6 -1.1 10.2 -8.5 22.3 1.7 15.2 -0.2 5 1.6 4.2 0.4 38.3 -1.4

132.5 -0.7 3.9 -6.3 128.6 -0.5 5 -7.2 20.3 1.8 2.8 15.5 1.8 1.9 -3.2 6 -0.5 10.1 -6.3 22.5 2.6 15.2 -0.5 5 0.9 4.2 -0.4 38.3 -1

132.6 -0.1 3.9 -4 128.7 0 5 -4.2 20.3 1 2.8 15.4 1.9 1.9 -1.9 6 -0.7 10.2 -3.5 22.6 2.9 15.2 -0.1 5 0.8 4.2 -0.8 38.3 -0.6

132.5 0.1 4 -1.6 128.6 0.2 4.9 -3.4 20.2 0.3 2.8 15.3 1.9 1.9 0 6 -0.7 10.2 -0.5 22.7 2.9 15.1 -0.5 5 0.9 4.2 -0.7 38.2 -0.4

132.8 0.3 4 0.4 128.8 0.3 4.9 -2.4 20.2 -0.2 2.8 15.2 1.9 2 2.3 6 -0.5 10.4 2.3 22.9 2.7 15.1 -0.9 5 0.2 4.2 -1.7 38.2 -0.3

133.1 0.5 4 1.8 129.1 0.4 4.9 -2.2 20.1 -0.6 2.8 15.1 1.9 2 4.6 6 -0.5 10.6 4.7 23.1 2.5 15.1 -1.2 5 -0.7 4.2 -1 38.2 -0.2

133.5 0.7 4 1.9 129.5 0.6 4.9 -1.5 20.2 -0.5 2.8 15.1 1.9 2 5.1 6 -0.2 10.8 6.5 23.2 2.5 15 -1.1 4.9 -1.6 4.2 -0.5 38.2 -0.1

134 1.1 4 1.9 130 1.1 5 1 20.2 0.1 2.8 15.2 1.9 2 3.9 6 0.4 11.1 8.3 23.3 2.5 15.1 -0.3 4.9 -2.8 4.2 -0.5 38.3 0.1

7728.7 261.9 1.2 139.2 2.3 4.8 1069 320 749

7667.8 262.5 1.1 138.9 1.5 5.2 834 292 542

7618.2 263.1 1 138.7 0.9 5.5 770 262 508

7579.1 263.7 0.9 138.6 -0.5 5.7 764 229 535

7566.2 264.3 0.9 138.5 -0.5 5.9 786 311 475

7568.6 265 0.9 138.5 -0.3 6 824 404 420

7591.8 265.6 1 138.7 0 6 983 584 399

7619.3 266.2 1 139 0.3 6.1 1071 682 389

7621.5 266.9 1 139.3 0.6 6.1 1057 766 290

7660.4 267.5 0.9 139.6 0.8 6 1119 835 284

7720.9 268.1 0.9 139.9 0.9 5.9 1153 855 298

7788.5 268.8 0.9 140.3 0.9 5.8 1183 848 335

7862.7 269.3 0.9 140.6 1 5.7 1232 883 349

*Quarterly an an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

G ai n e s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

December 2008 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

5.7 3.8 3.5 2.3 5.6 1.6 24.2 23.7 27.7 2.6

5.8 1.8 3.6 2.2 5.6 0.4 24.4 23.6 28.6 3.4

6 2.9 3.7 2.3 5.7 0.9 24.8 23.5 29 1.5

6.8 13.4 4.2 2.6 6.3 10.5 27.8 25.7 32.5 11.9

7.3 7.7 4.4 2.9 6.6 4.7 29.5 26.4 34 4.7

7.9 7.8 4.7 3.2 6.9 4.9 31.1 27.2 35.8 5.1

8.3 4.9 5 3.3 7.1 2.3 32.2 27.4 36.8 3

8.6 3.9 5.1 3.5 7.1 0.5 33 27.2 37.5 1.7

8.7 1.3 5.2 3.6 7.2 1.6 33.2 27.3 38.5 2.8

8.9 1.9 5.2 3.7 7.2 0.2 33.5 27.1 39.4 2.3

9.2 3.9 5.4 3.8 7.3 1.7 34.4 27.3 40.5 2.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

124.8 1.3 4.6 -14.5 120.3 2 4.8 2.1 17.4 1.5 2.2 13.9 1.3 2.2 -6.5 6.6 4 11.1 -2 19.9 3.1 12.3 3.8 3.9 2.2 3.1 1.6 39 2.4

124.7 -0.1 4.5 -0.9 120.2 -0.1 5.1 5.6 17.2 -1.2 2.3 13.3 1.5 2 -6.5 6.6 -0.1 9.9 -10.4 20.4 2.4 12.1 -1.3 4.3 10.4 3.2 2.1 39.4 1

126.1 1.1 4.2 -5.9 121.8 1.4 5.2 1.5 17.3 1.1 2.5 13.2 1.7 2 -1.3 6.2 -6.4 10.4 4.3 20.8 2.3 12 -0.5 4.5 5.4 3.3 3.6 40 1.6

128.3 1.8 4.2 -2 124.2 1.9 5.8 11.7 17.4 0.4 2.6 13.2 1.6 2.1 6.2 6.2 -0.7 11.3 8.8 21.5 2.9 12.9 7.5 4.7 3.3 3.4 3.8 38.9 -2.8

129.9 1.2 4.2 -0.2 125.7 1.3 6.2 6.3 18.1 3.7 2.7 13.8 1.6 2 -5.8 6.2 1 11.9 5.6 21.9 2.1 13.7 5.9 4.5 -3 3.7 5.9 37.6 -3.3

132 1.6 4.7 13.6 127.3 1.2 6.5 5.2 18.7 3.5 2.7 14.1 1.8 2 -2.9 6.5 4 12.1 1.2 21.9 0.1 13.4 -2.1 4.7 2.6 3.7 2 37.9 0.9

134.1 1.6 4.9 3.7 129.2 1.5 6.6 1.7 19.7 5.6 2.8 15.2 1.8 2 3 6.4 -0.5 11.8 -2.1 21.7 -0.9 13.8 3 4.8 3.6 3.9 3.8 38.3 1.2

135.6 1.2 4.6 -6.3 131.1 1.5 6 -9.1 20.1 2.1 2.8 15.4 1.9 2 0 6.2 -3 11.6 -2 21.8 0.5 15.1 9.2 4.9 0.9 4.2 9.1 39.1 1.9

133.2 -1.8 4.2 -9.2 129 -1.5 5.3 -11.1 20 -0.6 2.8 15.2 1.8 2 -2.6 6.1 -3 10.7 -7.5 22 0.6 15.2 0.9 4.9 1.6 4.2 0.2 38.6 -1.2

132.5 -0.5 3.9 -5.2 128.6 -0.4 5 -6.3 20.2 1.1 2.8 15.4 1.9 1.9 -2.1 6 -0.7 10.2 -4.8 22.5 2.5 15.2 -0.3 5 1 4.2 -0.4 38.3 -0.8

133.3 0.6 4 1.5 129.3 0.6 4.9 -1.3 20.2 -0.3 2.8 15.1 1.9 2 4 6 -0.2 10.7 5.4 23.1 2.5 15.1 -0.9 4.9 -1.2 4.2 -0.9 38.2 -0.1

6292.2 236.3 1.2 124.5 1.5 3.5 2326 1183 1142

6273.5 239.2 1.2 125 0.4 4 1942 1130 812

6436.6 241.7 1.1 126 0.8 3.7 1706 1261 446

6993.8 244.7 1.2 126.9 0.7 3.4 1838 1378 461

7332.3 248.9 1.7 127 0.1 3 2224 1454 770

7577.9 253.9 2 129.9 2.3 2.8 1885 1156 729

7699 257.5 1.4 134.2 3.3 3 1364 762 602

7794.3 260.9 1.3 138.2 2.9 4 1107 489 618

7607.8 263.4 1 138.6 0.3 5.6 788 274 515

7600.3 265.9 1 138.9 0.2 6 984 609 375

7758.1 268.4 0.9 140.1 0.9 5.9 1172 855 317

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

J ack s o n v i l l e

P r o fi l e s The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport. Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 1,300,823 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Baker County population estimate of 25,745 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Clay County population estimate of 182,023 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Duval County population estimate of 849,159 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Nassau County population estimate of 68,450 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • St. Johns County population estimate of 175,446 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 664,425 in January 2008 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 4.4% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 29,022 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Naval Air Station Jacksonville – 25,245 employees • Duval County Public Schools – 16,003 employees • Naval Station Mayport – 15,293 employees • City of Jacksonville Municipal Government – 8,828 employees • Blue Cross – 8,200 employees • Baptist Health – 7,000 employees • Winn-Dixie Stores, Inc. – 6,200 employees • Mayo Clinic – 5,000 employees

• CSX – 4,400 employees • Citibank – 4,200 employees Source: The Cornerstone Regional Development Partnership

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s The Jacksonville area is expected to see moderate growth in a variety of economic indicators. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.8 percent, the second highest in the state. The per capita income level will be one of the highest in the state, averaging a level of 32.4. Average annual wage is also expected to be among the highest in the state, at a level of 46.2. Employment growth is expected to be -0.9 percent annually. The fastest growing sector in the Jacksonville MSA will be education and health services, averaging 2.8 percent annually. Following that sector is other services, with an annual growth rate of 1.0 percent. Unemployment is expected to average 7.5 percent annually.

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Mayport to get nuclear carrier • The Navy has designated Naval Station Mayport to get a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, a development that is expected to bring 3,200 permanent jobs to the area. • The Navy has estimated that it will cost about $400 million to make Mayport nuclear-capable. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, November 17, 2008 Christ touts 10-year plan to improve the St. Johns • Governor Christ acclaimed a 10-year, $625-million plan to help restore and protect the St. Johns River. The plan is designed to help the region meet the state Department of Environmental Protection’s requirements for pollution.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

J ack s o n v i l l e

• Nitrogen discharges will be reduced by 1.6-million pounds per year, and septic tanks leaking into the ground and river will be eliminated, helping to protect the fishing and recreational industries in the area.

JaxCare ends health care coverage

• JaxCare has officially stopped coverage for the 1,500 members of the nonprofit provider. The organization provided healthcare for the working poor but had to close its doors due to cuts in city funding, insufficient participation from health Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, October 28, 2008 care providers, and increases in healthcare costs for members. Defense bill sending millions to Jacksonville • JaxCare members are being referred to volunteer health organizations for care. • New bills passed by Congress and President Bush will bring jobs and millions of dollars to northeast Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, September 29, Florida. 2008 • Seven joint cargo aircraft for the Army and Air Force will be built at Cecil Field at a cost of $264 million. The project will bring Jacksonville more than 300 jobs. • Another $430 million has been allocated to the development of the F-136 alternate engine for the Joint Strike Fighter, which Jacksonville-based Unison Industries is involved in. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, October 17, 2008 JEA tightens its belt amid financial crisis • The Jacksonville Electric Authority has slashed spending and its work force and has pushed back several projects in response to the financial crisis. • JEA cut 340 temporary, contracted workers, and projects, including the construction of a $680-million natural gas plant, have been pushed back. • Flat or declining sales, coupled with the unfavorable bond market, have fashioned challenges to the authority. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, October 17, 2008

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

J ack s o n v i l l e

Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0%

(percent)

0.4

0.6

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

55000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

50000.0 45000.0 40000.0 35000.0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

620.0

30000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Gross Metro Product

Jacksonville Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

8.0%

600.0

6.0%

580.0

4.0%

560.0

2.0%

540.0

0.0%

520.0 500.0

Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product

Jacksonville Payroll Employment 640.0

0.8

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Jacksonville Payroll Employment

-2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

J ack s o n v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL*

December 2008 Forecast

2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

52.9 3.1 29 23.9 43.4 1 39.7 32.6 44.8 3.1

53.1 3.1 28.9 24.2 43.7 2.2 39.7 32.7 45.2 3.8

53 0.9 28.9 24.1 43.7 1.3 39.5 32.6 45.5 3.3

53 0.6 28.8 24.1 43.7 2.1 39.3 32.4 45.8 2.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

621.6 -1.7 30.3 -4.8 591.4 -1.5 44.1 -8 136.9 -1 30.7 73 32.9 9.7 -5.9 59 -1.7 88.9 -5.8 80.5 2.8 65.3 -0.2 29.2 1.3 17.7 2.6 60 0.2

615.2 -2.6 29.2 -7.5 585.9 -2.3 43.4 -7 135.3 -2.5 30.4 71.8 32.5 9.5 -6.4 58.4 -2.9 86.9 -7.1 80.4 1.5 65.1 -0.2 29.5 2.4 17.7 0.3 59.7 0.5

604.7 -3.5 27.6 -11.1 577.1 -3.1 40.4 -10.3 135.4 -1.8 30.3 72.7 31.8 9.2 -6.1 57.7 -3.4 81.7 -9.9 80.8 0.6 65.1 -0.7 29.9 3.5 17.7 -0.3 59.3 -1.3

53.4 0.5 29.1 24.3 43.6 -0.4 39.4 32.2 46.4 2.6

53.8 1.5 29.2 24.6 43.7 -0.1 39.5 32.1 46.7 2.5

54.4 2.6 29.5 24.9 43.9 0.6 39.9 32.2 47 2.6

54.8 3.2 29.7 25.1 44 0.9 40.1 32.2 47.3 2.7

55.3 3.7 30.1 25.3 44.2 1.4 40.3 32.2 47.7 2.8

56.1 4.3 30.4 25.6 44.6 2 40.7 32.4 48.1 3

57 4.8 30.9 26.1 45.1 2.7 41.3 32.7 48.5 3.2

58 5.8 31.4 26.6 45.7 3.8 41.8 33 48.9 3.3

602 -3.2 27.1 -10.5 574.9 -2.8 39.4 -10.6 135.9 -0.7 30.3 73.5 31.6 9.1 -5.9 57.5 -2.6 80 -10.1 81.2 0.8 65 -0.6 30 2.8 17.6 -0.3 59.2 -1.3

601.1 -2.3 26.6 -8.8 574.5 -2 38.7 -10.7 136.2 0.7 30.2 73.9 31.4 9 -5.1 57.2 -2.1 79.2 -8.8 82 2 64.9 -0.3 30 1.8 18 1.5 59.2 -0.7

600.7 -1.4 26.4 -6.6 574.3 -1.1 38.7 -7.9 136.4 1.2 30.2 73.8 31.2 8.9 -5.7 57 -1.4 79.2 -5.7 82.9 3 65 -0.7 30.1 1 16.8 -4.7 59.3 -0.2

602.6 -0.4 26.4 -4.3 576.1 -0.2 38.6 -4.7 136.7 0.9 30.2 73.3 31.2 8.9 -4.1 56.9 -1.3 79.7 -2.4 83.6 3.6 65 -0.2 30.1 0.7 17.4 -1.4 59.3 0.1

603.2 0.2 26.5 -2 576.7 0.3 37.9 -3.8 136.8 0.6 30.2 72.8 31.2 8.9 -1.8 56.9 -1.1 80.4 0.5 84.1 3.6 64.6 -0.5 30.2 0.6 17.6 -0.5 59.3 0.1

605.4 0.7 26.6 0 578.7 0.7 37.7 -2.7 136.9 0.5 30.3 72.5 31.2 9.1 1 56.8 -0.7 81.8 3.3 85.2 3.9 64.4 -0.8 30.1 0.1 17.5 -2.7 59.3 0.1

608.6 1.3 26.7 1.4 581.9 1.3 37.7 -2.6 137 0.4 30.5 72.1 31.4 9.2 4.2 56.7 -0.5 84 6.2 86.1 3.9 64.3 -1.1 29.9 -0.5 17.5 3.7 59.3 0

612.7 1.7 26.8 1.5 585.8 1.7 37.8 -1.9 137.6 0.7 30.8 72.1 31.8 9.3 4.7 56.9 0 86.4 8.5 86.9 3.9 64.3 -1 29.8 -1.1 17.5 0.3 59.3 0

617.8 2.4 27 1.6 590.8 2.5 38.2 0.7 138.5 1.3 31 72.7 32.1 9.2 3.2 57.3 0.7 89.2 11 87.5 4 64.4 -0.3 29.6 -2 17.5 -0.5 59.4 0.2

49695.2 49244.3 48837.6 48513.7 48395.5 48397.8 1332.9 1337.6 1342.2 1346.7 1351.1 1355.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 683.3 683.1 683.2 683.6 683.8 684.9 1.5 1.4 0.7 0 0.1 0.3 6.6 7.2 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.3 6233 5413 4726 4395 4862 5077 4522 4320 3761 3357 3987 4262 1712 1093 965 1039 875 815

*Quarterly an an annual rate

609.1 -3.4 28.2 -9.8 580.8 -3.1 42 -7.7 134.9 -2.9 30.4 71.6 32.2 9.4 -6.5 57.8 -3.8 83.9 -8.8 80.5 0.5 65.5 -1 29.8 2.9 17.7 -0.1 59.4 -0.7

53.1 0.4 28.9 24.2 43.6 0.4 39.3 32.3 46.1 2.7

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

48462 48713.9 48777.1 49066.4 49522.1 50056.5 50661.8 1359.9 1364.2 1368.5 1372.7 1376.8 1381.1 1385.6 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 686.8 688.8 690.9 693.8 696.7 699.6 702.6 0.5 0.8 1 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.7 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.2 8.1 6312 7221 8051 8750 9354 9951 10738 5403 6158 7043 7718 8057 8251 8740 909 1063 1008 1032 1297 1699 1997

J ack s o n v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

December 2008 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

33.8 2 19.8 14 33.1 -0.1 29.4 28.8 33.4 1.8

35.1 3.9 20.4 14.7 33.9 2.4 29.9 28.8 34.8 4.3

37.2 5.9 21.9 15.3 35.2 3.8 31 29.4 37 6.4

40.5 8.9 23.4 17.1 37.4 6.1 33 30.5 38.4 3.9

44.1 8.9 25 19.1 39.5 5.8 35.2 31.5 39.7 3.3

48.3 9.5 27.2 21.1 42.1 6.6 37.7 32.9 42 5.9

50.6 4.8 28.4 22.3 43 2.1 38.8 33 43.2 2.9

52.4 3.5 28.8 23.5 43 0 39.5 32.5 44.2 2.3

53 1.2 28.9 24.2 43.7 1.5 39.4 32.5 45.6 3.2

54.1 2 29.4 24.7 43.8 0.3 39.7 32.2 46.8 2.6

56.6 4.7 30.7 25.9 44.9 2.5 41 32.5 48.3 3.1

605.2 4 33.6 0.9 571.6 4.2 45.4 11 132.7 3.6 27.8 73.9 31.1 11.9 2.4 59.3 1.5 89.4 4.1 71.3 4.9 60.4 7.3 26.8 1.5 17.4 -2.2 57.1 3

623.8 3.1 33.3 -0.8 590.5 3.3 50.1 10.3 136.9 3.1 29.9 74.8 32.2 11.1 -6.9 59.8 0.9 94.5 5.7 74.5 4.5 62.1 2.9 27.6 3.1 16.9 -2.6 57 0

632.4 1.4 32.2 -3.1 600.2 1.6 48.9 -2.4 138.9 1.5 30.7 75.8 32.4 10.2 -7.7 59.7 -0.3 94.8 0.3 77.5 4 65.1 4.7 28.7 4.1 17.1 0.8 59.2 3.8

627.6 -0.8 31.1 -3.6 596.5 -0.6 45.3 -7.3 138.1 -0.6 30.9 74.3 32.8 9.9 -3.2 59.7 0.1 91.3 -3.8 80.1 3.3 65.6 0.8 29 0.8 17.7 3.7 59.8 1

607.7 -3.2 28 -9.7 579.7 -2.8 41.3 -8.9 135.4 -2 30.3 72.4 32 9.3 -6.2 57.9 -3.2 83.1 -8.9 80.7 0.8 65.2 -0.6 29.8 2.9 17.7 -0.1 59.4 -0.7

601.9 -1 26.5 -5.5 575.4 -0.7 38.5 -6.9 136.5 0.8 30.2 73.4 31.2 8.9 -4.2 57 -1.5 79.6 -4.2 83.2 3 64.9 -0.4 30.1 1 17.4 -1.3 59.3 -0.2

611.1 1.5 26.8 1.1 584.3 1.5 37.8 -1.6 137.5 0.7 30.6 72.3 31.6 9.2 3.3 56.9 -0.1 85.4 7.3 86.4 3.9 64.4 -0.8 29.9 -0.9 17.5 0.1 59.3 0.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

567.1 0.3 36.2 -8.3 530.9 0.9 32.9 1 125.6 -3.2 26.2 67.6 31.7 14.4 -5.6 57.9 2.4 93.9 5.3 61.1 2.4 51.1 1.8 23.9 0.4 17.7 -0.7 52.5 1.9

561.5 -1 34.4 -4.9 527.1 -0.7 34.1 3.6 124.4 -0.9 25.9 68.1 30.4 13.2 -8.1 57.7 -0.3 86.1 -8.2 63.5 4 52.5 2.8 24.9 4.6 17.7 0.2 52.8 0.5

564.6 0.5 33.4 -3.1 531.2 0.8 36.7 7.4 125 0.4 26.8 68.8 29.4 12.4 -6.1 57.6 -0.1 84.1 -2.3 64.7 1.9 53.3 1.6 25.7 3 18 1.6 53.6 1.7

582 3.1 33.3 -0.3 548.7 3.3 40.9 11.5 128.1 2.5 26.9 71.2 30.1 11.6 -6.5 58.4 1.4 85.9 2.2 67.9 5 56.3 5.5 26.4 2.6 17.8 -1.3 55.4 3.3

39150.3 40335.5 43105.3 44933.2 47171.7 49961.5 50509.4 50519.9 48747.8 48587.7 49826.7 1151.5 1175.8 1199.2 1226.6 1253.3 1281 1303.7 1325.5 1344.4 1362 1379 2 2.1 2 2.3 2.2 2.2 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.2 595.6 597.5 599.4 609.3 623.4 645.1 667.5 679.6 683.4 687.9 698.2 1.1 0.3 0.3 1.6 2.3 3.5 3.5 1.8 0.6 0.7 1.5 4.1 5.3 5 4.6 3.8 3.4 3.9 5.6 7.7 8.4 8.3 12640 14252 15042 17883 23879 16715 10516 7415 4849 6665 9698 10027 11058 12825 13858 18655 12256 7478 5364 3856 5717 8192 2613 3194 2217 4024 5224 4459 3038 2051 993 949 1506

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Lake l a n d

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Lakeland MSA is comprised only of Polk County. It is located in the western center of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus. It is home to a few attractions, including Cypress Gardens and Fantasy of Flight. Also, the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians conduct spring training in Lakeland and Winter Haven, respectively.

The Lakeland MSA will show relatively low growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 2.4 percent annually, while average annual wage growth should be 2.2 percent. Employment growth is expected to decline 1.3 percent annually. Population growth is expected to be the second highest in the state, averaging an annual growth rate of 2.1 percent. Education and health services is expected to be the highest growing sector in the area, averaging a 2.3 percent growth rate, followed by the leisure sector, averaging a growth rate of 0.3 percent a year. The unemployment rate in the area will average 8.3 percent.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 574,746 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 267,983 in January 2008 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 4.8% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 12,734 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 6,644 employees • Lakeland Regional Medical Center – 4,540 employees • City of Lakeland Government – 2,600 employees • GEICO – 1,850 employees • Watson Clinic – 1,500 employees • GC Services – 1,000 employees • Summit Consulting – 1,000 employees • Rooms To Go – 900 employees • FedEx National LTL – 850 employees • Saddle Creek Corporation – 680 employees Source: Lakeland Economic Development Council

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Polk development leaders defend $20,000 European mission • Polk County officials are planning to institute a trade mission to Europe to study successful economic development programs that could be duplicated here. • County officials want to build relationships with foreign-based companies that have generated approximately 500 new jobs and $178 million in foreign investment in the past three years. • Polk is looking to expand German supermarket chain Aldi and increase the technology sectors among other things. Source: Lakeland Ledger, November 22, 2008 HealthCare Plan’s overrun at $12.5 million • Polk County implemented a half-cent indigent-care sales tax to help pay for Polk HealthCare Plan’s costs for last year, which ran $12.5 million over budget. • The number of people enrolled and eligible to continue receiving coverage dropped from 3,385 in October to 1,823 in November.

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

Lake l a n d

• Polk HealthCare Plan’s Risk Management Director, Mike Kushner, claimed that the organization will repay the $12.5 million to Polk County earlier than expected. Source: Lakeland Ledger, November 21, 2008 Polk’s jobless rate hits 11-year-high • According to the Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation, Polk County’s jobless rate is the highest it has been in 11 years at 8.1%. • There are 5,700 fewer jobs than there were in October 2007, with most job losses in the professional and business services, construction, and manufacturing industries. Source: Lakeland Ledger, November 21, 2008 Several Polk tourist attractions thriving thanks to tight budgets • Tighter budgets are making Americans seek inexpensive entertainment. As a result, Polk County parks, museums, and gardens have seen an increase in visitors over the past three years. • Revenue has been up at smaller, local attractions, such as Bok Tower Gardens, where the number of guests has risen, and special shows are sold out. Source: Lakeland Ledger, November 10, 2008 Door slams shut on builders • Polk County officials are projecting an estimated year-end total of 1,800 home permits, merely half of 2007’s total. • More than 6,900 foreclosures have been filed as of October this year, topping Polk County’s total of 5,132 for 2007. • Despite buying incentives such as cash back in the event that a home’s price drops within a year of signing the contract, housing starts are expected to fall another 5 to 10%. Source: Lakeland Ledger, October 17, 2008

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Lake l a n d

Lakeland MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0%

(percent)

0.5

14000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

12000.0 11000.0 10000.0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

9000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Gross Metro Product

Lakeland Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

8.0% 6.0%

200.0

4.0%

190.0

2.0%

180.0

0.0%

170.0

2.5

13000.0

210.0

160.0

Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product

Lakeland Payroll Employment 220.0

1.5

-2.0% 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Lakeland Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

-4.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Personal Income

Lake l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL*

December 2008 Forecast

2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

18.7 2.7 7.7 11 15.4 0.6 31.2 25.6 37 2.8

18.8 2.6 7.7 11.1 15.5 1.7 31.1 25.6 37.2 3.3

18.7 0.5 7.7 11 15.4 0.9 30.9 25.5 37.4 2.8

18.7 0.4 7.7 11.1 15.4 1.9 30.7 25.3 37.6 2.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

207.7 -2.9 15.5 -7.6 192.1 -2.5 13.5 -11.6 48.9 0.2 10.1 26.5 12.2 2 -3.9 11.6 -0.5 32.3 -9.4 28.5 2.2 17.6 0.1 9.2 -0.1 1.4 -1 27.1 -1.6

205.7 -3.6 15 -8.7 190.6 -3.1 13.1 -11.2 48.5 -1.4 10 26 12.1 2 -6.2 11.5 -1.5 31.8 -9.7 28.5 1.5 17.6 0 9.3 0.5 1.4 -1.8 27 -2

203.8 -3.5 14.6 -9.5 189.2 -3.1 12.7 -9.4 48.4 -1.4 9.9 25.9 12 2 -5.4 11.4 -2.1 30.9 -10.2 28.5 1.1 17.7 -0.4 9.4 0.7 1.4 -0.2 26.9 -1.6

202.5 -3.5 14.3 -10 188.2 -2.9 12.2 -11.2 48.7 -1.5 9.9 26.4 11.9 2 -5.1 11.4 -2.2 30.2 -8.9 28.6 0.5 17.6 -0.3 9.4 2.6 1.4 -0.4 26.8 -1.6

18.8 0.3 7.7 11.1 15.4 0.3 30.6 25.2 37.8 2.1

18.8 0.3 7.7 11.1 15.4 -0.6 30.6 25 38 2

18.9 1.3 7.7 11.2 15.4 -0.3 30.7 24.9 38.2 1.9

19.1 2.2 7.8 11.3 15.5 0.2 30.8 24.9 38.4 2

19.3 2.7 7.8 11.4 15.5 0.4 30.9 24.9 38.5 2

19.4 3.3 7.9 11.5 15.5 1 31.1 24.9 38.8 2.2

19.7 3.8 8 11.7 15.6 1.5 31.4 25 39.1 2.4

20 4.5 8.1 11.9 15.8 2.4 31.8 25.2 39.3 2.5

20.3 5.5 8.2 12.1 16 3.6 32.2 25.4 39.6 2.7

201.5 -3 14 -9.4 187.5 -2.4 12 -11.2 48.9 0 9.9 26.8 11.9 1.9 -4.2 11.4 -1.5 29.4 -9 28.7 0.9 17.6 -0.3 9.4 2.1 1.4 -0.5 26.7 -1.5

201.3 -2.1 13.9 -7.7 187.4 -1.7 11.8 -10.3 49.1 1.3 9.9 27 11.9 1.9 -3.4 11.4 -1.1 29 -8.7 29 1.9 17.6 -0.1 9.4 1.1 1.4 1.5 26.7 -0.9

201.5 -1.1 13.8 -5.5 187.8 -0.8 11.8 -7.1 49.2 1.8 9.9 26.9 11.9 1.9 -3.6 11.4 -0.6 28.9 -6.4 29.4 2.9 17.6 -0.4 9.4 0.4 1.4 0.6 26.8 -0.4

202 -0.3 13.8 -3.3 188.1 0 11.7 -3.9 49.4 1.5 9.9 26.6 11.9 1.9 -2.1 11.3 -0.8 29.1 -3.6 29.6 3.3 17.6 -0.1 9.4 -0.1 1.4 -0.2 26.8 0

202.1 0.3 13.9 -1 188.2 0.4 11.6 -3.2 49.5 1.1 9.9 26.3 12 1.9 0 11.3 -0.9 29.2 -0.6 29.7 3.3 17.5 -0.5 9.4 -0.2 1.4 -0.3 26.8 0

202.8 0.8 14 0.8 188.9 0.8 11.5 -2.2 49.5 0.9 9.9 26.1 12 2 2.5 11.3 -0.7 29.6 2.1 30 3.2 17.5 -0.6 9.4 -0.7 1.4 -3.2 26.7 0

203.9 1.2 14.1 2.1 189.8 1.1 11.5 -2.1 49.6 0.8 10 26 12.1 2 5.2 11.3 -0.7 30.2 4.4 30.2 3 17.5 -0.7 9.3 -1.2 1.4 -2.2 26.7 -0.1

205 1.5 14.1 2.2 190.9 1.5 11.6 -1.4 49.8 0.9 10.1 26 12.3 2 5.7 11.3 -0.3 30.9 6.2 30.4 3 17.5 -0.5 9.3 -1.6 1.4 -1.2 26.8 0

206.4 2.2 14.2 2.2 192.2 2.2 11.7 1.2 50.2 1.5 10.2 26.3 12.5 2 4.2 11.4 0.4 31.5 7.9 30.5 3 17.5 0.3 9.2 -2.2 1.4 -0.8 26.8 0.2

12862.1 12758.6 12670.3 12606.7 12585.5 12599.8 12640.5 12688.2 12700.9 12780.2 12895.7 13027.6 13179.2 599.3 602.9 606.3 609.5 612.5 615.4 618 620.3 622.5 624.5 626.5 628.3 630.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 271.9 272.1 272.3 272.7 272.9 273.4 274.1 274.9 275.6 276.3 277.1 277.9 278.7 0.7 0.8 1.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 7.3 8 8.5 8.8 9 9.2 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.2 9 8.8 2825 2424 2155 1837 2140 2384 3238 3742 4182 4555 4714 4854 5175 1911 1814 1684 1448 1855 2145 2982 3491 3996 4379 4523 4581 4857 913 609 471 389 285 239 256 251 186 176 192 273 318

*Quarterly an an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Lake l a n d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

December 2008 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

12.2 6 5.7 6.5 12 3.9 24.8 24.3 30.3 2

12.5 2.1 5.8 6.7 12 0.6 24.9 24.1 30.9 1.7

13.1 4.7 6 7 12.4 2.7 25.6 24.2 31.7 2.7

14.4 10.6 6.5 7.9 13.3 7.7 27.6 25.4 32.2 1.7

15.9 10 7.2 8.7 14.2 6.9 29.3 26.3 33.5 3.8

17.5 9.9 7.7 9.8 15.2 7 31.2 27.2 35.4 5.8

18 3.4 7.8 10.3 15.3 0.8 31.3 26.6 35.9 1.4

18.6 2.8 7.7 10.8 15.3 -0.6 31.3 25.7 36.6 1.8

18.7 1 7.7 11.1 15.4 1.2 30.8 25.4 37.5 2.6

19 1.6 7.8 11.3 15.4 -0.1 30.8 24.9 38.3 2

19.9 4.3 8.1 11.8 15.8 2.1 31.6 25.1 39.2 2.5

212.9 6.2 18.5 0.3 194.4 6.8 16.4 12.6 48 8.3 10.4 25.5 12.2 2.3 2.9 11.2 1.7 37.3 7.2 25.8 6 16.7 7.7 9.1 11.8 1.4 4.4 26.3 1.9

215.4 1.2 17.9 -3.1 197.5 1.6 16.9 3.1 48.9 1.8 10.4 26.1 12.5 2.4 2 11.6 3.2 36.7 -1.7 26.6 3.2 17 1.8 9.5 4.5 1.4 -1.5 26.7 1.7

215.4 0 17.1 -4.2 198.3 0.4 15.9 -5.4 49.3 0.7 10.3 26.3 12.6 2.2 -8.1 11.8 1.8 35.9 -2.1 27.6 3.8 17.3 2 9.2 -2.8 1.4 1.9 27.7 3.6

210.5 -2.3 16 -6.6 194.5 -1.9 14 -12.3 49.1 -0.3 10.1 26.6 12.4 2.1 -4.1 11.7 -1 33.8 -6 28.3 2.4 17.6 2.1 9.3 0.4 1.4 -0.3 27.3 -1.3

203.4 -3.4 14.5 -9.4 188.9 -2.9 12.5 -10.7 48.6 -1.1 9.9 26.3 12 2 -5.2 11.4 -1.8 30.6 -9.5 28.6 1 17.6 -0.2 9.4 1.5 1.4 -0.7 26.8 -1.7

201.7 -0.8 13.8 -4.4 187.9 -0.5 11.7 -6.2 49.3 1.4 9.9 26.7 11.9 1.9 -2.3 11.3 -0.8 29.1 -4.9 29.4 2.9 17.6 -0.3 9.4 0.3 1.4 0.4 26.8 -0.3

204.5 1.4 14.1 1.8 190.5 1.4 11.6 -1.1 49.8 1 10.1 26.1 12.2 2 4.4 11.3 -0.3 30.6 5.2 30.3 3 17.5 -0.4 9.3 -1.4 1.4 -1.9 26.8 0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

186.2 1.2 18.9 -6.7 167.3 2.2 14 1.3 45.3 0.5 8.5 26.4 10.4 2.6 9.2 10.3 6.9 24 12.2 22.8 2.1 15.1 1.5 7 -2.6 1.4 -17.6 24.8 -2

185.7 -0.3 18.4 -2.2 167.2 0 13.6 -2.8 44 -2.9 8.5 25 10.4 2.4 -4.9 10.8 5.3 24.4 1.6 22.5 -1.3 15.8 4.8 7.4 5.1 1.4 3 24.9 0.1

189.5 2.1 18.3 -0.8 171.2 2.4 13 -4.1 42.6 -3.2 9.1 22.8 10.6 2.3 -6.9 11.1 3.1 29.5 21 23.1 2.8 15.1 -4.4 7.5 2 1.4 -2 25.5 2.7

200.4 5.7 18.4 0.6 182 6.3 14.5 11.3 44.4 4.2 9.5 23.7 11.1 2.2 -1.2 11 -1.1 34.8 18 24.3 5.2 15.5 2.2 8.1 7.5 1.3 -2.5 25.8 1

11047.6 11225.9 11657.6 12186.8 12988.6 13330.8 13334.5 13175.2 12655.3 12657.3 12970.7 492.4 499.9 510 523.7 541.3 559.9 576.9 593.5 607.8 619 627.5 1.3 1.5 2 2.7 3.4 3.4 3 2.9 2.4 1.8 1.4 236.2 238.1 239.7 248.1 256.4 263 269.1 270.6 272.5 274.5 277.5 2.1 0.8 0.7 3.5 3.3 2.6 2.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.1 5 5.8 5.5 4.9 4.1 3.7 4.5 6.3 8.5 9.3 9.1 4577 4907 6789 9088 12877 9528 4379 3345 2139 3386 4824 3989 4484 6169 8297 11725 8279 3999 2447 1700 3154 4585 588 423 620 790 1152 1249 380 898 439 233 240

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B eac h

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Miami Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, this area is home to many sports teams, such as the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins, and the Florida Panthers. Other major businesses also reside in this metro, including the Miami Seaquarium, the University of Miami, and Florida International University.

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Miami Beach area is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. The area ranked first in the state for gross metro product, at a level of 207,754.3, and for housing starts, which are expected to grow 32.8 percent annually. Employment growth is expected to average -1.0 percent each year. Personal income is expected to grow 2.4 percent annually while average annual wage growth should be 2.5 percent. Miami’s fastest growing sector is expected to be education and health services at 2.1 percent annually, followed by other services at an average of 1.2 percent growth each year. Unemployment is expected to be 7.4 percent on average each year.

Quick Facts: • Metro area population estimate of 5,413,212 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,387,170 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Broward County population estimate of 1,759,591 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,266,451 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 2,821,912 in January 2008 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 4% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 114,108 unemployed people for the metro area. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Miami-Dade County Public School – 54,387 employees • Miami-Dade County – 32,265 employees • Federal Government – 20,100 employees • Florida State Government – 18,900 employees • Jackson Health System – 11,700 employees • Baptist Health South Florida – 10,300 employees • University of Miami – 9,367 employees • American Airlines – 9,000 employees • United Parcel Service – 5,000 employees • BellSouth – 4,800 employees Source: Greater Miami Chamber of Commerce

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Inflation falls in South Florida but stays above U.S. rate • South Florida has seen a sharp decrease in inflation rates over the past two months, down from 5.8% in August to 4% in October. • Despite the large drop in inflation, average weekly earnings are only up 2.9% from a year ago, indicating that earnings are actually down by 0.9%. Source: Miami Herald, November 19, 2008 Miami-Dade School Board OKs $89 million in budget cuts • The Miami-Dade School Board, the nation’s fourth largest school system, unanimously approved an $89-million budget cut in hopes of restoring financial viability. • As a direct result, approximately 440 positions will be eliminated and all administrators will take a 10% pay cut. Source: Miami Herald, November 18, 2008

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B eac h

Federal grants to be used to buy up South Florida foreclosures • South Florida counties will be given $161 million of a $3.9-billion pot offered by Congress as a housing stimulus plan. • As of October 31, foreclosures in Broward and Miami-Dade were up 53% and 97%, respectively, from last year. • $37 million will be used to buy bank-owned singleand multi-family homes, while the remaining $124 million will be used for structure demolition, mortgage assistance, and new government-assisted housing projects. Source: Miami Herald, November 14, 2008 Alligator Alley tolls could jump to $3.75 in July • Because of a controversial plan to lease Alligator Alley to a private contractor for 50 years in return for a lump-sum cash payment, tolls on the 78-mile highway could increase to $3.75 from $2.50. • Beginning January 2011, the tolls would be increased by 3% or the rate of inflation (whichever is greater) for the duration of the 50-year lease. Source: Miami Herald, November 7, 2008 October sees most South Florida bankruptcies • October had the most consumer bankruptcies filed in South Florida than any other month this year with a 12% increase from 1,728 to 1,972. • Consumer bankruptcy filings are up an astonishing 60% from October 2007. • Although the number of businesses filing for bankruptcies is down 12% from January, they are almost double what they were last year. Source: Miami Herald, November 4, 2008

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

M iami â&#x20AC;&#x201C; F o r t Lau d e r d a l e â&#x20AC;&#x201C; M iami B eac h Miami - Ford Lauderdale - Miami Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate (percent)

9.0% 8.0%

0.6

0.8

1.2

1.4

1.6

Miami Real Gross Metro Product 220000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

200000.0

7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0%

0.4

180000.0 160000.0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate

140000.0

Miami Payroll Employment 2500.0

(Thousands)

Miami Real Personal Income 8.0%

2400.0

6.0%

2300.0

4.0%

2200.0

2.0%

2100.0

0.0%

2000.0

-2.0%

1900.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Miami Payroll Employment

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Gross Metro Product

-4.0%

(percent change year ago)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B eac h

Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach (MD), FL*

December 2008 Forecast

2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

241.8 2.6 112.9 128.9 198.6 0.5 44.7 36.7 47.1 3

242.6 2.6 112.6 129.9 200 1.7 44.9 37 47.4 3.6

241.6 0.4 112.3 129.3 199.5 0.7 44.7 36.9 47.7 3

241.2 0 112 129.2 198.8 1.5 44.7 36.8 48 2.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

242.4 -0.1 112.6 129.7 198 -1 44.9 36.7 48.5 2.3

244.4 1.2 113.4 131 198.6 -0.4 45.2 36.8 48.8 2.2

246.8 2.3 114.2 132.6 199.4 0.3 45.6 36.9 49.1 2.3

248.5 2.9 114.9 133.5 199.5 0.6 45.9 36.9 49.4 2.4

250.4 3.3 116.2 134.3 200 1 46.2 36.9 49.7 2.5

253.3 3.7 117.5 135.8 201.3 1.4 46.7 37.1 50.1 2.6

257 4.2 119 138 203.4 2 47.3 37.4 50.4 2.8

261.1 5.1 120.7 140.3 205.7 3.1 48 37.8 50.8 3

2384.6 -2.1 89 -6.7 2295.6 -1.9 134.6 -12 535.6 -2.3 145.6 292.8 95.7 49.8 -4.3 171.6 -4.4 383.3 -3.5 329.5 2.5 256.8 -0.6 102.9 0.9 34.2 1.5 297.2 1.3

2361.6 -2.9 85.7 -9.5 2275.9 -2.6 132.4 -10.8 528.8 -3.8 143.8 287.5 94.8 48.7 -5.9 170.3 -4.2 377.3 -4.5 328.9 0.9 255.5 -1 104.1 2.8 34.2 -0.5 295.5 0.4

2339 -3.2 82.6 -11.5 2256.4 -2.9 127.8 -11.1 525.9 -3.5 142.7 285.6 93.9 48.2 -5.6 168.9 -3.7 367.7 -6.3 328.4 0 256.3 -1 105.1 2.9 34.2 -0.1 293.8 0.6

2321.7 -3.4 80.7 -11.9 2241 -3.1 122.3 -11.5 526.8 -2.5 141.8 289.3 92.9 47.4 -6.4 168.9 -2.3 360.1 -7.8 328.8 0.1 254.2 -1.5 105.6 3.5 34.2 -0.3 292.6 -1.4

2310.8 -3.1 78.9 -11.4 2231.8 -2.8 118.6 -11.9 527.7 -1.5 140.9 291.9 92.4 46.8 -6.1 168.7 -1.7 355 -7.4 330 0.1 253.3 -1.4 105.9 2.9 34.1 -0.4 291.9 -1.8

2308 -2.3 77.4 -9.7 2230.5 -2 115.9 -12.5 528 -0.2 139.9 293.2 91.8 46.2 -5.3 167.9 -1.4 353.8 -6.2 332.7 1.1 252.8 -1.1 106.2 2 35.5 3.7 291.6 -1.3

2311.4 -1.2 76.4 -7.5 2235 -1 115.6 -9.6 527.9 0.4 139.4 292 91.4 45.6 -5.5 167.3 -1 356.2 -3.1 335.6 2.2 252.7 -1.4 106.4 1.2 36.3 6.1 291.3 -0.8

2314.9 -0.3 76.5 -5.1 2238.3 -0.1 115.2 -5.8 527.9 0.2 139 289.6 91.2 45.5 -3.9 166.8 -1.2 361 0.2 337.8 2.7 252 -0.9 106.5 0.8 34.5 0.9 291.2 -0.5

2315.7 0.2 76.7 -2.8 2239 0.3 113.1 -4.6 527.1 -0.1 138.6 287 91.2 46 -1.8 166.5 -1.3 365.9 3.1 338.8 2.7 250.2 -1.2 106.7 0.7 33.9 -0.6 290.8 -0.4

2323 0.7 76.9 -0.7 2246.1 0.7 112.2 -3.2 526.4 -0.3 138.4 284.9 91.1 46.5 0.8 166 -1.1 373.2 5.5 342.2 2.9 248.9 -1.6 106.4 0.2 33.7 -5.1 290.6 -0.4

2333.7 1 77 0.8 2256.6 1 112 -3.1 525.7 -0.4 138.9 282.7 91.6 47.2 3.6 165.5 -1.1 383.2 7.6 345.1 2.8 247.9 -1.9 105.9 -0.4 33.7 -7.2 290.4 -0.3

2346.6 1.4 77.2 0.9 2269.4 1.4 112.4 -2.4 526.7 -0.2 139.8 282.3 92.7 47.4 4 165.7 -0.7 393.5 9 347.1 2.8 247.3 -1.9 105.4 -1.1 33.7 -2.4 290.2 -0.3

2362.9 2 77.5 1 2285.4 2.1 113.5 0.4 529.1 0.4 140.6 284.2 93.6 47.2 2.7 166.6 0.1 404.6 10.6 348.3 2.8 247.2 -1.2 104.7 -1.9 33.7 -0.6 290.4 -0.1

208280 5406.7 -0.1 2872 1 6.4 6058 2288 3770

206359 5404 -0.2 2867.9 0.9 6.9 3600 2301 1299

204544 5402 -0.2 2867 0.3 7.4 3129 1661 1468

203015 5400.9 -0.2 2866.4 -0.4 7.7 3447 942 2505

202403 5400.5 -0.1 2865.3 -0.2 7.9 4476 2192 2284

202442 5401.1 -0.1 2866.6 0 8.1 5081 2866 2214

203047 5403 0 2869.8 0.1 8.2 8050 5506 2543

203654 5406.2 0.1 2873.4 0.2 8.3 10512 7503 3009

203707 5410.4 0.2 2877.4 0.4 8.4 11882 9329 2553

204829 5416.6 0.3 2880.6 0.5 8.3 13529 10783 2747

206567 5424.3 0.4 2884.8 0.5 8.3 15419 11541 3879

208573 5433.1 0.5 2889.9 0.6 8.1 17670 12073 5597

210856 5442.9 0.6 2895.4 0.6 8 20316 13387 6930

*Quarterly an an annual rate

241.5 -0.1 112.1 129.4 198.3 -0.1 44.7 36.7 48.2 2.4

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B eac h

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach (MD), FL

December 2008 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

163.9 4.4 82 81.9 160.5 2.2 32 31.3 36.8 3.2

169.8 3.6 84.1 85.7 164 2.2 32.7 31.5 37.8 2.7

174 2.5 87.6 86.4 164.8 0.5 33.1 31.3 39.2 3.8

189.8 9.1 93.5 96.3 175.1 6.3 35.6 32.9 40.7 3.7

205.6 8.3 101.1 104.5 184.2 5.2 38.2 34.2 42.4 4.1

222.4 8.2 107.9 114.6 193.9 5.3 41.1 35.8 44.3 4.6

232.7 4.6 111.5 121.2 197.8 2 43 36.5 45.6 2.8

240 3.2 112.6 127.5 197.3 -0.3 44.4 36.5 46.5 2

241.7 0.7 112.2 129.5 199.1 0.9 44.7 36.9 47.8 2.9

245.5 1.6 113.8 131.7 198.9 -0.1 45.4 36.8 48.9 2.3

255.5 4.1 118.3 137.1 202.6 1.9 47.1 37.3 50.3 2.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2213.1 2.1 122.9 -7.9 2090.2 2.8 120 2.6 523.1 0.3 130.9 293.1 99.1 65.8 6.6 159.4 1.2 338.9 8.1 263 2.5 226.9 3.5 93.3 -2.7 31.7 -3.5 268.1 3.9

2210.2 -0.1 112.4 -8.6 2097.9 0.4 118.8 -1.1 515.3 -1.5 132 286.1 97.1 61.8 -6.1 162.4 1.8 341 0.6 273.9 4.1 224.4 -1.1 93.6 0.3 32.1 1.3 274.7 2.5

2218.1 0.4 103.4 -8 2114.7 0.8 120.3 1.3 509.8 -1.1 133.9 282 93.9 57.5 -6.9 163.9 1 344.2 0.9 283.3 3.4 228.9 2 95.4 1.9 34.1 6.2 277.4 1

2285.3 3 100.8 -2.5 2184.5 3.3 129.4 7.6 516.3 1.3 138.3 284.9 93.2 56.6 -1.6 169.6 3.5 368.8 7.1 292.8 3.4 239.8 4.7 97.3 2 34.2 0.4 279.8 0.9

2372 3.8 101.1 0.3 2270.9 4 145.3 12.3 529.4 2.5 140.8 293.3 95.3 55.9 -1.1 177.8 4.8 397.3 7.7 300.8 2.7 247 3 98.6 1.3 34.5 1 284.3 1.6

2419.8 2 100.6 -0.5 2319.2 2.1 162.2 11.6 542.7 2.5 144.2 302.7 95.7 53.2 -4.8 183.1 3 399.7 0.6 307.2 2.1 251.1 1.7 98.9 0.3 34 -1.4 287.1 1

2434 0.6 97.6 -2.9 2336.3 0.7 158.5 -2.3 547.2 0.8 147 304.4 95.8 52 -2.3 180.7 -1.3 398.7 -0.2 317.8 3.5 256.1 2 100.8 2 33.8 -0.8 290.6 1.2

2409.2 -1 92.2 -5.6 2317 -0.8 141.2 -10.9 542.6 -0.8 147.4 298.7 96 50.9 -2.3 174.4 -3.4 390.3 -2.1 328.1 3.2 258 0.7 102.1 1.3 34.3 1.5 295.1 1.5

2333.3 -3.2 82 -11 2251.3 -2.8 125.3 -11.3 527.3 -2.8 142.3 288.6 93.5 47.8 -6 169.2 -3 365 -6.5 329 0.3 254.8 -1.2 105.2 3 34.2 -0.4 293.5 -0.6

2312.5 -0.9 76.8 -6.4 2235.7 -0.7 114.9 -8.3 527.7 0.1 139.2 290.5 91.4 45.8 -4.1 167.1 -1.2 359.2 -1.6 336.2 2.2 251.9 -1.1 106.4 1.2 35 2.5 291.2 -0.7

2341.5 1.3 77.1 0.5 2264.4 1.3 112.5 -2.1 527 -0.1 139.4 283.5 92.3 47.1 2.8 166 -0.7 388.6 8.2 345.7 2.8 247.8 -1.6 105.6 -0.8 33.7 -3.9 290.4 -0.3

178796 5121.5 1.7 2545.7 1.8 5.3 35839 23909 11930

181143 5200.5 1.5 2573.3 1.1 6.2 37858 21870 15987

187614 5261.8 1.2 2587.9 0.6 5.7 37956 23592 14364

196706 5329.4 1.3 2632.3 1.7 5.1 40690 23676 17014

211505 5387.6 1.1 2703.6 2.7 4.2 41844 22548 19295

218111 5413.1 0.5 2770.2 2.5 3.6 32801 15772 17029

218289 5413.1 0 2825.2 2 3.8 14795 7581 7215

216018 5409.8 -0.1 2862.8 1.3 5.4 8309 3659 4650

204080 5401.9 -0.1 2866.6 0.1 7.5 3663 1774 1889

203213 5405.2 0.1 2871.8 0.2 8.3 8881 6301 2580

207706 5429.2 0.4 2887.7 0.6 8.2 16734 11946 4788

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Naples–Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier County only. Located on the southwest coast of Florida, the area is notable for numerous recreation and leisure activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the “Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida.”

The Naples–Marco Island MSA is ranked number one in the state of Florida for personal income growth, per capita income, average annual wage level, and average annual wage growth. Personal income will grow at a rate of 4.2 percent and per capita income will average a level of 54.0. Average annual wage will be at a level of 49.2, growing at a rate of 3.1 percent. Housing starts will average a rate of 32.6 percent annually. On the down side, employment growth is expected to decline by 1.3 percent. Education and health services represents Naples’ fastest growing sector, growing at a rate of 3.2 percent each year. Following that sector is other services, with a growth rate of 1.2 percent annually. The area also has one of the highest unemployment rates at 8.4 percent.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 315,839 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 151,587 in January 2008 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 4.8% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 7,220 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Collier County School Board – 3,350 employees • NCH Healthcare Systems – 2,700 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,755 employees • Collier County Government – 1,060 employees • Marriott Corporation – 860 employees • County Sheriff’s Department – 838 employees • Winn Dixie Stores, Inc. – 760 employees • The Ritz-Carlton, Naples – 758 employees • Naples Registry Resort – 600 employees • Collier Enterprises – 500 employees Source: Naples Homes Real Estate and Relocation Services

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s NABOR report: Naples home prices over $300,000 stabilize • Over the past year, the sale of homes over $300,000 has stabilized with a median sale price increase of 1% from $558,000 to $566,000. • Home prices in the under $300,000 category are very unstable with foreclosures and short sales influencing a 17% decrease in selling price. • Regardless of price, pending home sales in the over $300,000 category have increased 83% and pending home sales in the under $300,000 have increased 255% since October 2007. Source: Naples Daily News, November 14, 2008 Economy, storms blamed for tourism drop in Naples area • Naples’ visitor numbers dropped 12.9% in September after a steady increase throughout June, July, and August. • Business owners and county officials blame the two tropical storms that approached near Labor Day weekend. • Despite the fact that hotel occupancy dropped 14%

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d

and expenditures declined 6.2%, Naples is doing better than other destinations in Florida. Source: Naples Daily News, October 27, 2008

a fair agreement. There was a vote of 6-1 so that the city or the county may opt out if either party decides the agreement is not in their best interest. Source: Naples Daily News, October 15, 2008

Collier foreclosures hit working class • Collier County’s more affordable communities, Golden Gate and Golden Gate Estates, have been hit the hardest by the economy and foreclosures. • Golden Gate and Golden Gate Estates are primarily working class communities that have been heavily suffering from a high unemployment rate, job cuts, and exotic loans. • The price of most homes plunged, leaving many owners owing more than their home is worth. Collier has 1,500 final judgments on foreclosures, with a total mortgage balance of over $522 million. Source: Naples Daily News, October 26, 2008 Home sales increase again in Naples • September home sales increased in Naples, with pending sales up 106% and overall home sales up 50%. • The rising number of foreclosures in Naples is bringing down the price of homes. In exchange, the sale of homes $300,000 and under has greatly increased. Source: Naples Daily News, October 16, 2008 Naples will take Collier’s $1 million per year for now • Three years from now, Naples will have the opportunity to opt out of a 10-year, $10-million agreement with Collier County to subsidize the operating costs of city parks. • Collier County would be providing Naples with $1 million per year for the use of renovating and maintaining city parks. • Many council members do not think that this is

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Nap l e s â&#x20AC;&#x201C; M a r c o I s l a n d Naples MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate 10.0%

(percent)

Naples Real Gross Metro Product 13000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

12000.0

8000.0 7000.0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate

6000.0

Naples Payroll Employment (Thousands)

130.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Real Personal Income 25.0%

(percent change year ago)

20.0%

120.0

15.0%

110.0

10.0%

100.0

5.0%

90.0

0.0%

80.0

2.5

9000.0

4.0%

70.0

10000.0

6.0%

140.0

1.5

11000.0

8.0%

2.0%

0.5

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Naples Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

-5.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Personal Income

Nap l e s â&#x20AC;&#x201C; M a r c o I s l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL*

December 2008 Forecast

2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

20.7 3.9 6 14.7 17 1.8 64.9 53.3 47.8 2.9

21 4.7 6 15 17.3 3.8 65.5 54 48.1 3.5

21 2.8 6 15 17.4 3.2 65.6 54.1 48.5 3.1

21.1 2.7 6 15.1 17.4 4.3 65.5 54 48.8 2.8

21.2 2.3 6 15.2 17.4 2.3 65.7 54 49 2.7

21.3 1.6 6.1 15.3 17.4 0.7 65.9 53.8 49.3 2.6

21.6 2.7 6.1 15.5 17.6 1.1 66.5 54.1 49.6 2.5

22 4.3 6.2 15.8 17.8 2.2 67.4 54.5 50 2.5

22.3 5.2 6.2 16.1 17.9 2.8 68.1 54.7 50.3 2.5

22.5 5.6 6.3 16.2 18 3.2 68.5 54.7 50.7 2.7

22.8 5.4 6.4 16.4 18.1 3 69 54.8 51.1 2.9

23.2 5.3 6.5 16.7 18.3 3.1 69.8 55.2 51.5 3

23.5 5.5 6.6 16.9 18.5 3.5 70.5 55.6 51.9 3.2

122.4 -2 2.8 -8 119.6 -1.9 13.5 -12.3 23 0.2 3.4 18 1.5 1.6 -2.4 7.9 -0.5 13.8 -7.7 17.2 2.5 22.8 0.9 6 4 0.6 -0.6 13.2 -0.3

122.4 -1.5 2.8 -6.5 119.6 -1.4 13.2 -12.4 23.1 1.5 3.4 18.1 1.5 1.6 -1.8 7.9 -0.3 13.6 -7.4 17.4 3.4 22.9 1.1 6.1 2.8 0.6 1.6 13.2 0.3

122.9 -0.5 2.8 -4.4 120.1 -0.4 13.2 -9 23.2 1.9 3.3 18 1.5 1.6 -1.5 7.9 0.2 13.6 -5.4 17.6 4.2 23 0.8 6.1 2.1 0.6 1.8 13.3 0.8

123.3 0.4 2.8 -2.2 120.5 0.5 13.2 -4.8 23.2 1.5 3.3 17.9 1.5 1.6 -0.3 7.9 -0.4 13.7 -3 17.8 4.6 23 1.2 6.1 1.8 0.6 1.4 13.3 1.2

123.3 0.7 2.8 0 120.5 0.8 13 -3.8 23.3 1.2 3.3 17.8 1.5 1.7 1.6 7.9 -0.6 13.8 -0.3 17.9 4.5 23 0.8 6.1 1.8 0.6 1.5 13.3 1.3

123.8 1.1 2.8 1.7 120.9 1.1 12.9 -2.5 23.3 1 3.3 17.7 1.5 1.7 3.7 7.9 -0.5 13.9 2.1 18.1 4.3 23 0.5 6.1 1.2 0.6 -1.7 13.4 1.3

124.4 1.3 2.8 2.9 121.6 1.2 12.9 -2.4 23.4 0.8 3.4 17.7 1.5 1.7 5.8 7.8 -0.5 14.3 4.7 18.3 3.9 23.1 0.2 6.1 0.5 0.6 -0.8 13.4 1.1

125.2 1.6 2.9 3.2 122.4 1.6 13 -1.6 23.5 1 3.4 17.8 1.6 1.7 6.3 7.9 0.1 14.6 6.7 18.5 3.6 23.1 0.4 6.1 -0.2 0.6 0 13.4 1

126.2 2.4 2.9 3.2 123.4 2.4 13.2 1.4 23.6 1.6 3.5 18 1.6 1.8 5.3 7.9 1.1 14.9 8.7 18.5 3.4 23.2 1.2 6.1 -1.2 0.6 0.2 13.5 1.1

11261 11202.7 11196.6 11221.9 321 321.9 322.8 323.9 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 152.5 153.2 153.9 154.7 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.9 8.4 8.7 8.9 9.2 605 747 894 1108 528 522 691 877 77 226 203 231

11284 325 1.2 155.6 2 9.3 1534 1256 278

11342 11357.2 11439.7 11563.1 11704.3 11864.9 326.2 327.5 328.9 330.4 331.9 333.5 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 156.6 157.6 158.5 159.5 160.5 161.5 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.2 9 8.8 1878 2106 2376 2697 3062 3460 1540 1830 2078 2227 2331 2518 337 276 298 470 732 942

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

124.9 -2.9 3 -5.1 121.9 -2.9 15.4 -12.7 23 -3.3 3.4 17.9 1.5 1.7 -6.8 7.9 0.5 15 -5 16.7 3.2 22.6 -0.5 5.8 0.5 0.6 -14.3 13.2 -0.6

124.2 -3 3 -7.6 121.3 -2.9 15.1 -11.4 22.8 -3.2 3.4 17.6 1.5 1.7 -5.9 7.9 -2 14.7 -5.7 16.8 3.5 22.6 -1.4 5.9 3.9 0.6 -1.1 13.2 -1.1

11387.7 11324.9 319.6 320.3 0.8 0.8 151.3 151.9 0.4 0.9 7.3 7.9 867 581 570 567 297 14

123.5 -2.7 2.9 -8.5 120.6 -2.5 14.5 -11.9 22.7 -1.2 3.4 17.5 1.5 1.7 -3.5 7.9 -1.9 14.4 -7.1 16.9 3 22.8 -0.6 6 5 0.6 -1.4 13.1 -1.4

122.8 -2.5 2.8 -8.5 119.9 -2.3 13.9 -12.3 22.9 -1.2 3.4 17.8 1.5 1.6 -3.3 7.9 -1.5 14.1 -7.6 17 2.1 22.8 0.8 6 4.8 0.6 -0.4 13.1 -0.8

*Quarterly an an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Nap l e s â&#x20AC;&#x201C; M a r c o I s l a n d

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

December 2008 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

11.1 10.5 3.7 7.3 10.8 8.2 41.6 40.8 35 3.3

11.6 4.9 4 7.6 11.2 3.5 42 40.5 35.6 1.6

12.3 5.9 4.4 7.9 11.6 3.8 42.9 40.6 38.7 8.6

14.8 20.8 4.9 9.9 13.7 17.6 50 46.1 40.4 4.5

16.5 11.2 5.5 11.1 14.8 8.1 53.7 48.2 42.4 4.8

18.2 10.1 5.8 12.3 15.9 7.1 58 50.6 43.1 1.6

19.5 7.3 6 13.5 16.6 4.6 61.7 52.4 45.4 5.4

20.4 4.8 6 14.5 16.8 1.4 64.1 52.7 47.2 3.9

21.1 3.1 6 15.1 17.4 3.4 65.6 54 48.6 3

21.8 3.5 6.2 15.7 17.7 1.7 67 54.3 49.8 2.5

23 5.4 6.4 16.6 18.2 3.2 69.4 55.1 51.3 3

128.3 6.4 3.2 3 125.1 6.4 20.3 21.3 24.3 5.6 3.4 19.1 1.8 1.8 0 7.7 9.4 16.3 -6.5 14.5 7.9 21.5 7.4 5.7 5.2 0.7 0 12.3 2.9

135 5.2 3.3 3.6 131.7 5.3 23.9 17.6 24.5 0.9 3.2 19.5 1.7 1.9 3.2 8.2 5.6 16.8 3.2 15.4 6 21.9 1.7 5.8 1.9 0.7 0 12.7 3.4

131.6 -2.5 3.3 -1.8 128.3 -2.6 19.6 -17.9 24.1 -1.7 3.4 19.1 1.6 1.8 -3.1 8.1 -0.6 15.9 -5.3 16.2 5.3 22.8 4.1 5.8 1.2 0.7 0.1 13.2 4.3

126.4 -3.9 3.1 -4 123.3 -3.9 16.2 -17.6 23.2 -3.8 3.4 18.2 1.5 1.7 -5.8 8 -1.1 15.3 -3.6 16.5 2.1 22.8 -0.2 5.7 -2 0.6 -14.3 13.3 0.2

123.2 -2.5 2.9 -8.1 120.4 -2.4 14.2 -12 22.8 -1.4 3.4 17.7 1.5 1.7 -3.8 7.9 -1.5 14.3 -7.1 17 2.8 22.8 -0.1 6 4.4 0.6 -0.9 13.2 -0.9

123 -0.2 2.8 -3.3 120.2 -0.1 13.1 -7.7 23.2 1.5 3.3 17.9 1.5 1.6 -0.5 7.9 -0.3 13.7 -4.1 17.7 4.2 23 1 6.1 2.1 0.6 1.6 13.3 0.9

124.9 1.6 2.9 2.8 122.1 1.6 13 -1.3 23.4 1.1 3.4 17.8 1.6 1.7 5.3 7.9 0.1 14.4 5.6 18.4 3.8 23.1 0.6 6.1 0.1 0.6 -0.6 13.4 1.1

12322 12506.3 11917.1 11599.2 11246.3 11301.3 307.3 313.3 316.2 318.8 321.5 325.6 3.4 2 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.3 144.6 152.2 152.2 151 152.9 156.1 4.5 5.3 0 -0.8 1.3 2.1 3.5 3.1 4.3 6.5 8.5 9.3 5724 4256 1958 1037 707 1656 4038 3050 1160 676 577 1376 1686 1206 798 361 130 281

11643 331.2 1.7 160 2.5 9.1 2899 2288 610

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

106.5 6.7 3.2 9.4 103.3 6.6 14.6 10.7 22.2 7.2 3 17.5 1.8 1.8 0.5 6.2 4.8 12.5 3.5 12.1 9.7 17.4 4 5.1 4.6 0.7 -4.5 10.6 9.1

9640.3 265.8 4 123.6 6.5 4.1 7433 4083 3349

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

110.8 4.1 3.1 -3.4 107.7 4.3 14.7 1 22.7 2.1 3.3 17.6 1.9 1.8 -0.9 6.5 4.5 13.4 7.1 12.8 5.1 18.3 5.3 5.5 7 0.7 0 11.3 7.1

114.1 3 2.9 -5.3 111.2 3.3 14.6 -0.8 22.4 -1.3 3.1 17.7 1.7 1.7 -3.3 6.7 2.6 16.1 19.8 13.2 3.3 18.5 1.2 5.5 -0.3 0.7 0 11.8 4.5

120.6 5.7 3.1 5.9 117.5 5.7 16.8 14.8 23 2.4 3.3 18 1.7 1.8 7.3 7.1 5.9 17.4 8.1 13.4 1.9 20.1 8.2 5.4 -1.4 0.7 0 11.9 1

9430.8 10212.3 11154.8 276.7 286.5 297.1 4.1 3.6 3.7 129.6 133.1 138.4 4.9 2.7 3.9 5.1 4.9 4.2 7078 5334 6101 4279 3403 4018 2799 1932 2083

Oca l a

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

Comprised of Marion County only, the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area in the center of the state. The second-largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area.

The Ocala MSA has the highest expected annual population growth in the state at 2.5 percent. Housing starts are expected to average 26.0 percent annually, one of the highest figures in the state. Personal income growth is expected to average 3.3 percent annually, the second highest growth in the state. Employment growth is expected to decline an average of 0.8 percent annually. Relative to other metro areas, Ocala has the lowest annual wage levels, averaging 35.3 each year. Personal income level is one of the lowest in the state at 23.9. Education and health services is expected to be the fastest growing sector in Ocala, averaging an annual growth rate of 2.8 percent, followed by other services, which will grow at 1.7 percent annually. Ocala also has the highest unemployment rate in Florida, averaging 9.7 percent a year.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 324,857 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 136,167 in January 2008 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 5.7% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 7,800 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Marion County School Board – 6,000+ employees • Munroe Regional Medical Center – 2,500 employees • Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – 2,385 employees • State of Florida (all departments) – 2,263 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,450 employees • Marion County Board of County Commissioners – 1,342 employees • Ocala Regional Medical Center – 1,301 employees • Emergency One, Inc. – 1,274 employees • City of Ocala – 1,244 employees • AT&T – 1,000 employees Source: Ocala/Marion Economic Development Council

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Rising costs, shrinking savings hurt seniors’ purchasing power • The economic downturn’s impact on Marion County senior citizens has become a major concern for the local business community. Nearly one in three county residents is over the age of 60, and this number is expected to increase through 2015. • Non-profit Marion County Senior Services is struggling to meet the growing senior population’s needs as a result of decreased funding, a tight economy, and increased costs. More than 500 seniors are on a waiting list to receive aid from MCSS. Source: The Ocala Star Banner, November 30, 2008 Officials pass new business ordinances • In an effort to lure new businesses and encourage growth in existing ones, Marion County commissioners passed a pair of ordinances that will streamline the permitting process, offer tax breaks, and provide other incentives to businesses.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Oca l a

• Any business bringing at least 10 new, full-time jobs at 115% of Florida’s current annual wage will benefit from an expedited permitting process and waived application and permit fees. The county’s property tax incentive program has been expanded to include businesses seeking to establish an industrial, commerce, or business park. Source: The Ocala Star Banner, November 6, 2008 Marion Oaks meets the criteria to become a city • Marion Oaks meets all of the criteria to become a city, but citizens are undecided on whether or not to go that route. Marion Oaks has approximately 15,000 residents, making it potentially the second largest city in Marion County. • The city would have a $5.5-million budget, assuming current tax levels and state and local revenue sharing. Source: The Ocala Star Banner, October 22, 2008 North central Florida hospitals feel economic ills • Ocala’s 12,000 unemployed residents and an increasing number of uninsured patients have placed a heavy burden on emergency rooms at the Ocala Regional Medical Center, West Marion Community Hospital, and Munroe Regional Medical Center. • As uninsured patients forgo primary care, the number of emergency room visits has increased, while federal compensation has remained the same or been reduced. • Munroe Regional has been hit the hardest, plagued by increasingly bad debt. Source: The Ocala Star Banner, October 21, 2008

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

Progress Energy bills to rise 25 percent for nuke plant • Marion County Progress Energy customers will see a 25% increase in their utility bills come January. The rate hike will allow Progress Energy to recover money for its proposed nuclear reactor plants in Levy County and improvements to the Crystal River plant as well as to cover increasing fuel costs. • Customers will pay an average of $27.29 a month more as a result of the increase. Source: The Ocala Star Banner, October 14, 2008

Oca l a Ocala MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

7000.0

8.0%

5500.0

6.0%

5000.0

1.4

1.6

1.8

(Millions 2000 $)

4500.0

4.0%

4000.0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate

3500.0

Ocala Payroll Employment (Thousands)

105.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Gross Metro Product

Ocala Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

8.0%

100.0

6.0%

95.0

4.0%

90.0

2.0%

85.0

0.0%

80.0 75.0

1.2

6500.0 6000.0

110.0

Ocala Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

2.0%

0.8

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Ocala Payroll Employment

-2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Oca l a

Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL*

December 2008 Forecast

2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

10 3.6 3.5 6.4 8.2 1.5 29.4 24.1 34.4 2.8

10.1 3.6 3.5 6.5 8.3 2.7 29.3 24.2 34.6 3.4

10 1.4 3.5 6.5 8.3 1.8 29.1 24.1 34.8 3

10.1 1.4 3.6 6.5 8.3 2.9 29.1 23.9 35 2.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

10.2 1.1 3.6 6.6 8.3 0.2 29 23.7 35.4 2.4

10.3 2.2 3.6 6.7 8.3 0.6 29.1 23.7 35.6 2.3

10.4 3.2 3.6 6.8 8.4 1.2 29.4 23.7 35.9 2.3

10.5 3.7 3.7 6.8 8.4 1.4 29.5 23.7 36.1 2.4

10.6 4.3 3.7 6.9 8.5 1.9 29.6 23.7 36.3 2.5

10.7 4.6 3.8 7 8.5 2.3 29.9 23.8 36.6 2.7

10.9 5.1 3.8 7.1 8.6 2.9 30.3 24 36.9 2.9

11.1 6 3.9 7.3 8.8 4 30.7 24.2 37.2 3.1

102.7 -2.8 8.6 -8.5 94.1 -2.3 9.2 -11.5 23.2 -1.9 4.3 15.7 3 1.8 -6 5.8 -1.5 8.1 -5.3 13.5 1.8 10.6 -0.5 4.5 1.2 0.7 -0.2 16.8 -0.7

101.8 -3.3 8.3 -10.7 93.5 -2.6 9 -11.1 23 -3.3 4.3 15.5 3 1.8 -8 5.7 -2.1 8 -4.8 13.5 1.1 10.6 -0.3 4.5 2.2 0.7 -0.5 16.7 -1

101.2 -3.2 8 -11.9 93.2 -2.3 8.7 -9.8 23 -2.6 4.3 15.5 3 1.7 -5.7 5.7 -3.4 7.8 -7.2 13.5 1.5 10.7 0.6 4.6 2 0.7 -0.8 16.6 -0.6

100.7 -2.7 7.8 -11.4 92.9 -1.9 8.4 -10.3 23.2 -0.9 4.3 15.8 2.9 1.7 -4.9 5.7 -2 7.6 -7.8 13.6 1.2 10.7 0.5 4.6 4.5 0.7 -1.1 16.6 -1.2

100.5 -2.1 7.7 -10.7 92.8 -1.3 8.2 -10.6 23.4 0.9 4.3 16.1 2.9 1.7 -4 5.7 -1 7.5 -7.9 13.7 1.6 10.7 0.6 4.6 3.6 0.7 -1.5 16.6 -1

100.5 -1.3 7.5 -9.1 93 -0.6 8.1 -10.2 23.5 2.3 4.3 16.2 2.9 1.7 -3.2 5.7 -0.8 7.4 -7.5 13.9 2.7 10.7 0.8 4.7 2.4 0.7 -0.4 16.6 -0.3

100.8 -0.3 7.5 -6.9 93.4 0.2 8.1 -7.1 23.6 2.7 4.3 16.2 2.9 1.7 -3.4 5.7 -0.3 7.4 -5.2 14.1 3.8 10.8 0.5 4.7 1.6 0.7 -0.7 16.7 0.3

101.1 0.4 7.5 -4.6 93.7 0.8 8.1 -3.7 23.7 2.1 4.3 16.1 3 1.7 -2 5.7 -0.8 7.5 -2.3 14.2 4.3 10.8 0.9 4.7 1.4 0.7 -0.9 16.7 0.7

101.2 0.7 7.5 -2.3 93.7 1 8 -2.8 23.7 1.4 4.3 16 3 1.7 0.2 5.7 -1 7.5 0.7 14.3 4.2 10.7 0.5 4.7 1.5 0.7 -0.3 16.7 0.7

101.6 1.1 7.5 -0.3 94 1.2 8 -1.7 23.8 1 4.4 15.9 3 1.7 2.6 5.6 -0.8 7.7 3.5 14.4 4.2 10.7 0.2 4.7 0.8 0.7 -1.8 16.7 0.5

102 1.2 7.5 1.1 94.5 1.2 8 -1.6 23.8 0.7 4.4 15.9 3 1.8 5.3 5.6 -0.8 7.8 5.8 14.6 4.1 10.7 -0.2 4.7 0.1 0.7 -1 16.7 0.4

102.6 1.4 7.6 1.1 95 1.5 8 -0.8 23.9 0.8 4.4 15.9 3.1 1.8 5.7 5.6 -0.3 8 7.5 14.8 4 10.8 -0.1 4.7 -0.7 0.7 -0.3 16.8 0.4

103.3 2 7.6 1.1 95.7 2.1 8.2 2 24.1 1.4 4.5 16.1 3.1 1.8 4.3 5.7 0.6 8.2 9.2 14.8 4 10.8 0.7 4.6 -1.8 0.7 -0.1 16.8 0.6

6198.2 340.4 3.1 140.3 2.5 8.6 1144 1118 26

6155.1 342.6 2.9 140.7 2.6 9.3 1083 1082 1

6120.7 344.7 2.7 141.2 2.2 9.9 1065 1059 6

6099.7 346.8 2.6 141.7 1.3 10.3 1124 1101 23

6101.8 348.8 2.5 142.1 1.3 10.5 1509 1485 24

6118.8 350.8 2.4 142.6 1.3 10.8 1852 1822 30

6149.5 352.6 2.3 143.2 1.4 10.9 2502 2463 39

6180.9 354.3 2.2 143.8 1.5 11 2938 2887 51

6191.3 356 2.1 144.4 1.6 11 3376 3328 48

6233.5 357.5 1.9 145 1.7 10.9 3714 3665 49

6295.7 359 1.8 145.6 1.7 10.8 3905 3839 66

6365.3 360.5 1.7 146.2 1.6 10.6 4043 3952 92

6446 362.4 1.8 146.8 1.6 10.4 4297 4190 108

*Quarterly an an annual rate

10.1 1.3 3.6 6.6 8.3 1.3 29 23.8 35.2 2.5

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

Oca l a

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

December 2008 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

6.2 4.5 2.3 3.8 6 2.3 23.2 22.7 26.9 4

6.3 2.2 2.4 3.9 6.1 0.8 23.1 22.3 28.1 4.4

6.7 6.9 2.7 4.1 6.4 4.8 24 22.7 29.7 5.9

7.5 10.9 2.9 4.6 6.9 8.1 25.6 23.6 30.5 2.6

8.3 11.5 3.2 5.1 7.5 8.3 27.4 24.6 31.8 4.2

9.2 10.6 3.5 5.7 8 7.7 29.2 25.4 33.4 5.2

9.5 3.7 3.6 6 8.1 1.1 29.3 24.9 33.5 0.3

9.9 3.5 3.6 6.3 8.1 0.1 29.4 24.1 33.9 1.2

10.1 1.9 3.6 6.5 8.3 2.2 29.1 24 34.9 2.9

10.3 2.6 3.6 6.7 8.4 0.9 29.2 23.7 35.7 2.3

10.8 5 3.8 7.1 8.6 2.8 30.1 23.9 36.8 2.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

85.8 -0.2 9.9 -10.7 75.9 1.3 6.1 -2.6 20.7 1.2 3 14.9 2.8 2.4 -6.5 3.9 1.7 7.2 -6.4 9.2 7.7 7.6 6.1 3.5 1.9 0.7 -18.9 14.6 3.5

86.1 0.4 9.3 -5.5 76.8 1.1 6.4 4.9 20.5 -0.7 3.1 14.8 2.6 2.3 -4.5 4 1.1 7.2 0.5 9.7 5.3 7.6 0.3 3.6 3.6 0.7 2.3 14.7 0.7

89 3.4 9.2 -1 79.8 3.9 7.6 17.5 20.9 2 3.3 15.1 2.5 2.2 -5.1 4.3 9.2 7.6 4.9 10.5 8.5 7.7 0.9 3.6 -1.6 0.7 -2.3 14.7 0.4

95 6.7 9.6 4.1 85.4 7 9 18.7 21.7 3.7 3.7 15.6 2.5 2.2 1.2 4.9 12.5 8.2 7.5 11.1 6 8.7 13.1 3.8 7.7 0.7 0 15.1 2.4

100.6 5.9 9.9 3.6 90.7 6.2 9.8 9.7 22.9 5.6 3.9 16.3 2.7 2.2 -2.3 5.4 11.1 8.9 9.5 12 7.6 9.2 6.3 4 5.2 0.7 0.1 15.4 2.3

105.2 4.6 9.9 -0.7 95.3 5.1 11.7 18.6 23.4 1.9 4.2 16.4 2.7 2.1 -2 5.7 6 9.3 4.1 12.7 5.7 9.7 4.8 4.1 1.9 0.7 0 16 3.5

105.9 0.6 9.5 -3.5 96.3 1.1 10.9 -7 23.8 1.9 4.4 16.5 2.9 2 -7.5 5.9 1.9 8.7 -7.1 13.1 3.5 10.5 8.4 4.3 5.9 0.7 0 16.6 3.6

104 -1.8 9 -6.2 95.1 -1.3 9.6 -11.6 23.5 -1.2 4.4 16.1 3 1.8 -5.7 5.8 -0.4 8.3 -3.9 13.4 2 10.6 1.3 4.5 2.6 0.7 -0.1 16.8 1.2

101 -2.8 8 -11.2 93.1 -2.1 8.6 -10.5 23.2 -1.5 4.3 15.7 3 1.7 -5.7 5.7 -2.2 7.7 -6.9 13.6 1.4 10.7 0.4 4.6 3 0.7 -1 16.6 -0.9

100.9 -0.1 7.5 -5.8 93.4 0.4 8.1 -6 23.6 2.1 4.3 16.1 3 1.7 -2.1 5.7 -0.7 7.5 -3.7 14.1 3.8 10.7 0.7 4.7 1.7 0.7 -0.6 16.7 0.3

102.4 1.4 7.5 0.7 94.8 1.5 8 -0.5 23.9 1 4.4 15.9 3 1.8 4.5 5.7 -0.3 7.9 6.5 14.7 4.1 10.8 0.2 4.7 -0.4 0.7 -0.8 16.7 0.5

4606.9 265.5 1.8 109.3 0.1 5 3223 3199 25

4765.9 272.4 2.6 111.7 2.2 5.9 5741 5258 484

5166.5 280.7 3.1 114.3 2.3 5.4 6723 5985 738

5513.2 291.5 3.8 119.2 4.3 4.6 5087 4998 88

6067.2 303.4 4.1 124.3 4.2 3.9 7169 6614 555

6450.8 315.5 4 130.8 5.3 3.6 7218 6862 357

6491.1 326.2 3.4 135.3 3.5 4.6 3109 2796 314

6428.8 336.7 3.2 138.9 2.6 7.3 1371 1347 24

6119.3 345.7 2.7 141.4 1.8 10 1195 1182 13

6160.1 353.4 2.2 143.5 1.5 10.9 2667 2625 42

6335.1 359.8 1.8 145.9 1.7 10.7 3990 3911 79

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O r l a n d o – K i s s immee

P r o fi l e s The Orlando–Kissimmee MSA is comprised of Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole counties. Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World and numerous other Disney enterprises, Universal Studios, and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic, the Orlando Predators arena football team, and Atlanta Braves spring training at Disney’s Wide World of Sports. The University of Central Florida, the nation’s seventh-largest university, and many other places of higher education also reside in the MSA. Quick Facts: • MSA population estimate of 2,032,496 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Lake County population estimate of 301,059 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Orange County population estimate of 1,066,113 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Osceola County population estimate of 255,815 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Seminole County population estimate of 409,509 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force for the MSA of 1,096,524 in January 2008 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 4.3% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 46,649 unemployed people in the Orlando MSA. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Walt Disney Co. – 59,500 employees • Orange County Public Schools – 24,063 employees • Florida Hospital (Adventist Health System) – 16,002 employees • Publix Super Markets Inc. – 15,606 employees • Universal Orlando – 13,000 employees

• Orlando Regional Healthcare System – 10,000 employees • University of Central Florida – 8,946 employees • Lockheed Martin Corporation – 7,200 employees • Seminole County Public Schools – 7,000 employees • Marriott International Inc. – 6,312 employees Sources: Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission & Orange County Library System

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s The Orlando–Kissimmee area is expected to show modest growth in the next few years. Personal income and average annual wage growth are expected to be some of the highest in the state, growing at rates of 3.2 percent and 2.6 percent, respectively. Employment growth is forecasted to average 0.2 percent annually, the highest in the state. Per capita income and average annual wage levels are expected to be 28.7 and 42.5, respectively. Gross metro product is expected to be one of the highest in the state, averaging 85,149.5. In the Orlando area, the top sectors are expected to be education and health services and other services, sectors that will average annual growth rates of 3.7 and 2.5 percent, respectively. Unemployment is expected to average 7.6 percent each year.

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Commissioners OK Osceola Heritage Park expansion • $120 million has been approved to be spent on a convention center and a conference center in Osceola County. • In addition, $7.2 million of tourism revenue from local hotels, condos, and short-term rentals will be spent on about 20 acres next to the Osceola Heritage Park to expand the park’s facilities. • The developer of the Legacy Resort and The Moinian Group will be managing the projects. Source: Orlando Sentinel, November 16, 2008

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

O r l a n d o – K i s s immee

Oviedo Marketplace owner says bankruptcy is looming • General Growth Properties Inc., owner of the Oviedo Marketplace, Altamonte Mall, West Oaks Mall in Ocoee, Festival Bay Mall, and Lakeland Square, as well as 11 more malls across Florida, is facing bankruptcy over $958 million in debt. • If the company resorts to bankruptcy the malls will continue to operate as it reorganizes. • General Growth is the second-largest mall owner in the nation. Source: Orlando Sentinel, November 12, 2008 Orlando gains as distribution hub in spite of downturn

Maitland official casts doubt on town center progress • It is doubtful that developer Bob Reese of Brossier Co. will be able to follow through with the plans to build a downtown center in Maitland. He is facing two lawsuits from lenders. • Reese is facing repossession of his convertible and foreclosure of a $500,000 mortgage on the former Winn-Dixie shopping plaza. • The over $300 million Town Center project would be built in the shopping plaza involved in the foreclosure. Officials doubt Reese will successfully follow through with the project. Source: Orlando Sentinel, October 19, 2008

• The nation’s largest wholesale supplier of tools and specialty building materials, HD Supply White Cap, will consolidate its Florida shipping operations in Orlando’s Central Park. • About $1 million worth of supplies travel through the Orlando hub each month. Down from its peak during the construction boom by 22%, it is still faring better than the statewide numbers of 45%. • Orlando’s central location in the state makes it an ideal logistics hub for the company’s 52,000-square foot center. Source: Orlando Sentinel, November 3, 2008 Lake bets on future of biodiesel • Lake County will have the opportunity to win up to $2.5 million in technology grant money. • The money will go to Groveland’s Raptor Fabrication & Equipment, along with eight municipally owned acres to produce biodiesel. If granted, the company will be able to expand business and create at least 20 high-wage jobs. • Biodiesel is biodegradable and nontoxic and reuses discarded animal fats and restaurant waste. Groveland could surpass Houston to become the nation’s leading biodiesel city. Source: Orlando Sentinel, October 19, 2008 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O r l a n d o â&#x20AC;&#x201C; K i s s immee Orlando - Kissimee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0%

(percent)

0.6

1.2

1.4

1.6

Orlando Real Gross Metro Product 90000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

80000.0 70000.0 60000.0 50000.0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate

40000.0

Orlando Payroll Employment 1150.0 1100.0 1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0 750.0

0.8

(Thousands)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Gross Metro Product

Orlando Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 OrlandoPayroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

-2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Personal Income

O r l a n d o â&#x20AC;&#x201C; K i s s immee

Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL*

December 2008 Forecast

2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

72.8 3.5 45.3 27.6 59.8 1.3 35 28.7 41.3 3

73.2 3.3 45.3 27.9 60.3 2.4 35 28.9 41.6 3.6

73.1 1.2 45.3 27.8 60.4 1.6 34.9 28.8 41.9 3

73.2 0.9 45.3 27.9 60.3 2.4 34.7 28.6 42.1 2.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1091.8 -0.7 40.4 -4.7 1051.4 -0.6 70.8 -8.5 199.9 -1.8 47.8 119.2 31.8 26.5 -1.9 67.5 0.6 193.6 -3.4 117.6 5.2 196.8 1.5 60.2 3.7 11.8 4.6 106.7 0

1084.6 -1.7 39.1 -7.6 1045.5 -1.5 69.7 -8.3 198 -3.1 47.3 117.1 31.6 26 -3.5 67 -0.6 191 -5.1 117.8 4.1 196.6 0.8 61.2 4.9 11.9 1.2 106.4 -0.5

1077.8 -2.4 37.8 -9.7 1040 -2.1 67.4 -10.9 197.8 -2.7 47.2 116.7 31.3 25.8 -3.8 66.8 -1.6 186.3 -6.4 118 2.3 198 0.7 62 4.8 11.9 -0.1 106.1 -0.7

1072.2 -2.4 37 -10.9 1035.2 -2.1 64.7 -10.7 199 -1.1 47.1 119.3 30.9 25.4 -5.2 67 -1.7 182.8 -7.2 118.7 1.6 197.2 0.1 62.4 5.1 11.9 0.2 106.1 -0.5

73.4 0.8 45.5 27.9 60.3 0.8 34.7 28.5 42.3 2.4

73.8 0.9 45.8 28.1 60.3 0 34.8 28.4 42.5 2.3

74.6 2.1 46.2 28.4 60.7 0.5 35 28.5 42.8 2.2

75.6 3.3 46.7 28.9 61 1.3 35.3 28.5 43.1 2.3

76.3 3.9 47.2 29.1 61.3 1.6 35.5 28.5 43.3 2.4

77.2 4.5 47.8 29.4 61.6 2.2 35.8 28.6 43.7 2.6

78.3 4.9 48.5 29.8 62.2 2.5 36.1 28.7 44 2.8

79.6 5.3 49.3 30.3 63 3.2 36.6 28.9 44.3 2.9

81 6.2 50.1 30.9 63.9 4.2 37.1 29.2 44.6 3

1070 -2 36.3 -10.1 1033.7 -1.7 63 -11.1 200.3 0.2 46.9 121.3 30.8 25.2 -5 67.2 -0.6 180.6 -6.7 119.6 1.7 197.2 0.2 62.7 4.1 11.9 0.1 106.2 -0.5

1071.6 -1.2 35.7 -8.5 1035.8 -0.9 61.8 -11.3 201.2 1.6 46.7 122.4 30.5 24.9 -4.3 67.1 0.2 180.2 -5.6 121.2 2.9 197.6 0.5 63 2.9 12.3 4 106.5 0.1

1076.1 -0.2 35.4 -6.3 1040.7 0.1 61.9 -8.2 201.9 2.1 46.6 122.1 30.3 24.7 -4.2 67.2 0.6 181.5 -2.6 122.8 4 198.3 0.2 63.4 2.2 12.4 4.9 106.7 0.5

1081 0.8 35.5 -4 1045.5 1 61.8 -4.5 202.5 1.7 46.6 121.1 30.1 24.7 -2.9 67.2 0.3 184.2 0.8 124.1 4.5 198.4 0.6 63.7 2 12 1.2 107 0.8

1084.3 1.3 35.7 -1.7 1048.6 1.4 60.8 -3.4 202.8 1.3 46.6 120.1 30.1 24.9 -0.9 67.3 0.2 187 3.6 125 4.5 197.7 0.3 64 2.1 11.9 0.1 107.1 0.9

1091 1.8 35.8 0.3 1055.2 1.9 60.5 -2.1 203.2 1 46.6 119.4 30 25.3 1.6 67.4 0.3 191.4 6.2 126.9 4.7 197.5 0 63.9 1.4 11.8 -4 107.3 0.8

1099.3 2.2 36 1.7 1063.3 2.2 60.6 -2 203.4 0.7 47 118.9 30.2 25.7 4.2 67.3 0.2 197.2 8.7 128.5 4.6 197.4 -0.4 63.7 0.6 11.8 -4.8 107.5 0.8

1108.7 2.6 36.2 1.8 1072.6 2.6 61 -1.3 204.3 0.9 47.5 119.2 30.6 25.9 4.8 67.7 0.7 203.3 10.4 129.8 4.6 197.6 -0.4 63.5 -0.3 11.9 -1.2 107.8 0.7

1120 3.3 36.4 1.8 1083.6 3.3 61.8 1.6 205.8 1.5 47.9 120.7 30.9 25.9 3.7 68.3 1.4 210 12.3 130.7 4.5 198.2 0.2 63 -1.5 11.9 0.1 108.1 1

84369.3 83792.7 83277.9 82893.7 82892.6 83138.7 83588.1 84057.7 84297.7 85016.5 85996.6 2083.2 2090.5 2098.1 2106 2114.3 2122.6 2131.1 2139.5 2148.3 2157.6 2167.1 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1128 1130.2 1133.1 1136.2 1138.9 1143 1148 1153 1158.3 1164.4 1170.4 2 1.8 1.8 1 1 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2 6.7 7.3 7.7 8 8.2 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.5 8.4 8526 6429 6063 6425 7646 8535 11168 13197 14611 15956 17283 4685 4323 4093 4145 5687 6773 9251 11036 12779 14126 14913 3841 2105 1970 2280 1959 1762 1916 2161 1832 1830 2370

87121 88377.3 2176.9 2186.8 1.7 1.8 1176.7 1183.1 2.1 2.1 8.3 8.1 18667 20313 15450 16500 3217 3814

*Quarterly an an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O r l a n d o â&#x20AC;&#x201C; K i s s immee

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

December 2008 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

46.4 3.6 29.6 16.7 45.4 1.5 27 26.5 32.2 2.8

48.3 4.3 30.6 17.7 46.7 2.8 27.4 26.5 33.5 4

51.1 5.8 32.5 18.7 48.4 3.7 28.2 26.7 34.8 3.7

56 9.6 35.6 20.4 51.7 6.8 29.8 27.5 36.2 4.2

61.6 9.9 39.2 22.3 55.2 6.8 31.6 28.3 37.7 4.2

66.5 8.1 42.2 24.4 58 5.2 33.3 29 39 3.4

69.6 4.6 44 25.6 59.1 1.9 34.2 29 39.9 2.2

72.1 3.6 45 27.1 59.3 0.2 34.8 28.6 40.8 2.3

73.2 1.5 45.3 27.9 60.3 1.8 34.8 28.7 42 2.9

75.1 2.5 46.5 28.6 60.8 0.8 35.2 28.5 42.9 2.3

79 5.2 48.9 30.1 62.7 3 36.4 28.9 44.1 2.8

1035.9 5.8 44.3 2.7 991.6 6 79.8 14.7 192.8 6.1 44.7 120.1 28 24.7 3.9 63.7 7.1 184.4 8.3 102.2 5 183.6 2.4 49.9 4.9 11.8 5.2 98.7 3.5

1076 3.9 43.5 -1.9 1032.5 4.1 86.6 8.5 198.8 3.1 46.2 122.3 30.3 25.8 4.5 67 5.2 192.4 4.3 107.5 5.2 186.9 1.8 53.4 7.1 11.4 -3.5 102.7 4.1

1098.8 2.1 42.9 -1.4 1056 2.3 80.6 -6.9 202.7 2 47.2 123.3 32.2 26.9 4.2 67.6 0.9 198.9 3.4 111.4 3.7 192.3 2.9 57.6 7.8 11.4 0.3 106.4 3.6

1099.5 0.1 41.5 -3.2 1058 0.2 73.7 -8.5 202.2 -0.3 48 121.7 32.2 26.8 -0.6 67.7 0.2 197.7 -0.6 115.7 3.9 196.3 2.1 59.3 3 11.8 3.2 106.8 0.3

1076.1 -2.1 37.5 -9.6 1038.6 -1.8 66.2 -10.2 198.8 -1.7 47.1 118.6 31.1 25.6 -4.4 67 -1.1 185.2 -6.3 118.5 2.4 197.2 0.5 62.1 4.7 11.9 0.4 106.2 -0.5

1078.2 0.2 35.6 -5.2 1042.7 0.4 61.6 -7 202.1 1.7 46.6 121.4 30.2 24.8 -3.1 67.2 0.3 183.2 -1 123.2 4 198 0.4 63.5 2.3 12.2 2.6 106.8 0.6

1104.8 2.5 36.1 1.4 1068.7 2.5 61 -1 204.2 1 47.2 119.6 30.4 25.7 3.6 67.7 0.7 200.5 9.4 128.9 4.6 197.7 -0.2 63.5 0 11.9 -2.5 107.7 0.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

915.9 0.5 48.1 -5.7 867.8 0.9 55.7 0.2 178.2 -0.8 41.9 106.7 29.6 23 -2 54.2 -0.4 161.1 5.1 87 1.7 170.6 -3.6 42.4 7 10.3 0.7 85.3 4.5

908.2 -0.8 44.4 -7.7 863.8 -0.5 56.8 2 171.6 -3.7 39.6 104.8 27.3 22.5 -2 54.7 1 157.8 -2 89.4 2.7 165 -3.3 45.4 6.9 10.4 1.2 90.2 5.8

929.2 2.3 42.2 -5 887 2.7 61.4 8 173.4 1 40 107.4 25.9 23.1 2.5 57.4 4.8 158.9 0.7 93.6 4.7 169.9 3 45.7 0.7 11.1 7 92.6 2.6

978.8 5.3 43.1 2.3 935.7 5.5 69.6 13.4 181.7 4.8 42 113.5 26.2 23.8 3 59.5 3.7 170.2 7.2 97.3 4 179.4 5.6 47.5 4 11.2 1.2 95.4 3

63874.6 66573.2 70640.7 75048.3 81631.8 85393.2 86720.1 86985.5 83214.2 83770.5 86627.8 1714.8 1763.3 1813.2 1877.1 1946.6 2001.1 2036.9 2071 2102.2 2135.4 2172.1 3.1 2.8 2.8 3.5 3.7 2.8 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.7 910.2 918 934 966.1 1006.5 1049.6 1094 1119.2 1134.6 1150.6 1173.7 1.7 0.9 1.7 3.4 4.2 4.3 4.2 2.3 1.4 1.4 2 4.2 5.6 5.1 4.4 3.6 3.2 3.8 5.6 7.8 8.5 8.3 23955 25182 27607 32400 33906 30304 17980 11089 6641 11878 18055 17422 17509 22318 26196 26872 24310 12531 5897 4562 9960 15247 6533 7673 5289 6204 7034 5994 5448 5192 2079 1918 2808

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s v i l l e

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is comprised of Brevard County only. Typically known as “Florida’s Space Coast,” this area is home to the Kennedy Space Center. Located in the central part of Florida’s east coast, the region is home to Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, Patrick Air Force Base, and government contractors such as Harris Corporation. Like much of Florida, this area is growing fast; Port Canaveral is now a leading cruise-ship port.

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is expected to achieve modest growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow on average 2.3 percent each year. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.3 percent. Per capita income levels should average 29.5, while annual wage levels should average 45.5. Employment growth is forecasted to decline by 0.9 percent on average each year. Housing starts are expected to grow 23.2 percent. Education and health services is expected to be the top sector in the area, averaging 2.5 percent growth annually. Other services follow that sector, with an average growth of 0.4 percent. Unemployment in the area should average 8.4 percent, one of the highest in the state.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 536,161 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 259,913 in January 2008 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 5.1% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 13,163 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Harris Corporation – 6,420 employees • United Space Alliance – 6,380 employees • Health First, Inc. – 6,220 employees • Wuesthoff Health Systems – 2,460 employees • Northrop Grumman Corporation – 2,000 employees • Space Gateway Support – 1,800 employees • Parrish Medical Center – 1,250 employees • Rockwell Collins, Inc. – 1,250 employees • Sea Ray Boats, Inc. – 1,150 employees • Mercedes Homes – 1,030 employees Source: Economic Development Commission of Florida’s Space Coast

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Fed add to grant to control erosion • The U.S. Department of Agriculture added another half-million dollars to the already multimilliondollar grant aimed at helping Melbourne deter erosion caused during Tropical Storm Fay. • The grant will now total $2.8 million and will account for 75% of the county’s three projects totaling $3.4-million. • Erosion caused wide spread damage, including a broken water main and an FPL transmission line. Source: Florida Today, November 13, 2008 City moves ahead with parkway • The Palm Bay City Council voted unanimously to spend $1.4 million on 160 acres to create the Palm Bay Parkway. • The parkway is planned to be a four-lane road created to alleviate traffic congestion on I-95 and Babcock Street. It will connect South Brevard near Micco Road to Eau Gallie Boulevard in Melbourne.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s v i l l e

• Palm Bay officials are expecting another building boom when the market picks up again. The parkway is going to be essential to the southern and western areas of Palm Bay, where developments are planned. Source: Florida Today, November 7, 2008 AuthenTec sales, profit on the rise • The Melbourne-based maker of fingerprint sensors reported increases in sales and profit for the third quarter. • AuthenTech employs 125 people, with 95 employees in Melbourne. • Sales are projected to be between $12.5 million and $13.5 million in the fourth quarter. This compares with the $18.4 million in sales from the third quarter. Source: Florida Today, October 31, 2008 Harris seeks piece of $1B GPS job • Melbourne-based Harris Corp. is seeking to use its new GPS satellite control system to gain a part of a federal contract worth as much as $1 billion. • The contract would generate high-paying jobs with a need for 35 to 40 engineers. • New satellites would also be launched by the Air Force, adding to the 31 GPS satellites currently in orbit. Harris’s system would have the capacity to control up to 64 satellites. Source: Florida Today, October 29, 2008

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

Greyhound racing goes to the dogs • Greyhound racing and its betting is declining due to an increase in the popularity of virtual and reallife card game rooms. • Pari-mutuel wagering, which includes poker, broadcast closed-circuit races, and jai alai has been faring well in the tough economy. • By law, poker can only be played in the facilities that also host dog races. To keep the popular games, owners must have 100 races per year, and lawmakers are hesitant to change this requirement. Source: Florida Today, October 20, 2008

P a l m B a y â&#x20AC;&#x201C; M e l b o u r n e â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Ti t u s v i l l e Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.5

1.5

(percent)

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 FL Unemployment Rate Palm Bay Unemployment Rate

16000.0 15000.0 14000.0 13000.0 12000.0 11000.0 10000.0 9000.0

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Payroll Employment 220.0

(Thousands)

210.0 200.0 190.0 180.0 170.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Palm Bay Payroll Employment

2.5

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Unemployment Rate 10.0%

(Millions 2000 $)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Gross Metro Product

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Personal Income 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL*

December 2008 Forecast

2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

19.5 2.9 9.3 10.2 16 0.8 36.1 29.6 44.2 2.8

19.6 2.6 9.3 10.3 16.1 1.7 36.1 29.8 44.5 3.4

19.5 0.3 9.2 10.3 16.1 0.7 36 29.7 44.8 3

19.5 0.1 9.2 10.3 16.1 1.5 35.9 29.6 45 2.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

207.3 -2.3 21.9 -7.1 185.5 -1.7 13.2 -10 35.6 -3.2 5.5 27.1 2.8 2.7 -3.6 8.5 -0.1 36.7 -2.5 29.6 2.1 21.9 1.1 8.2 -0.2 6.1 -0.9 22.9 -1

205.4 -3.1 21.3 -8.9 184.1 -2.4 12.9 -9.4 35.2 -3.7 5.5 26.6 2.8 2.6 -6.4 8.5 -1.9 36.2 -3.4 29.6 1 21.9 0.4 8.3 1.6 6.1 -1.7 22.8 -2.3

202.1 -3.6 20.3 -9.1 181.8 -3 12.1 -10.4 35.5 -1.5 5.5 27 2.7 2.6 -4.8 8.4 -2.3 34.5 -8.1 29.7 0.4 21.9 -0.5 8.4 2.6 6.1 -0.2 22.6 -2

19.6 -0.1 9.3 10.3 16 -1 35.9 29.3 45.6 2.4

19.7 0.9 9.4 10.3 16 -0.7 36 29.3 45.8 2.3

19.9 1.9 9.4 10.4 16 -0.1 36.3 29.3 46.1 2.3

20 2.4 9.5 10.5 16 0.1 36.4 29.3 46.4 2.4

20.2 3.1 9.6 10.5 16.1 0.8 36.7 29.3 46.7 2.5

20.4 3.6 9.7 10.7 16.2 1.3 37 29.4 47.1 2.7

20.7 4.3 9.9 10.8 16.4 2.2 37.5 29.6 47.4 2.9

21.1 5.4 10 11 16.6 3.4 38 29.9 47.8 3.1

201.1 -3 20 -8.6 181.1 -2.3 11.8 -10.6 35.7 0.4 5.5 27.3 2.8 2.6 -3.9 8.4 -1.3 33.8 -7.9 29.9 0.9 21.8 -0.4 8.4 2.2 6.1 0 22.6 -1.4

200.9 -2.2 19.8 -7.1 181.1 -1.6 11.6 -10 35.9 1.8 5.5 27.5 2.8 2.6 -3.2 8.4 -0.9 33.5 -7.4 30.2 2 21.8 -0.2 8.4 1.3 6.2 0.6 22.6 -0.8

201.3 -1.1 19.6 -4.9 181.6 -0.6 11.6 -6.8 35.9 2.1 5.5 27.4 2.8 2.5 -3 8.4 -0.4 33.6 -4.9 30.6 3.1 21.9 -0.5 8.4 0.5 6.1 0 22.6 -0.3

201.8 -0.1 19.7 -2.7 182.1 0.2 11.7 -3.4 35.9 1.3 5.4 27.2 2.8 2.5 -1.8 8.4 -0.6 33.9 -2 30.8 3.6 21.8 -0.2 8.4 0.1 6.1 -0.5 22.6 0.1

202.1 0.5 19.9 -0.5 182.2 0.6 11.5 -2.6 35.9 0.6 5.5 26.9 2.8 2.6 0.1 8.4 -0.7 34.2 1 30.9 3.6 21.7 -0.6 8.4 -0.1 6.1 -0.9 22.6 0.2

203 1 20 1.2 183 1 11.4 -1.6 35.9 0.1 5.5 26.8 2.9 2.6 2.3 8.4 -0.5 34.7 3.6 31.3 3.5 21.7 -0.8 8.4 -0.6 6 -2.1 22.6 0.1

204.1 1.4 20.1 2.5 184 1.3 11.5 -1.4 35.8 -0.3 5.5 26.6 2.9 2.7 4.6 8.3 -0.5 35.4 5.5 31.6 3.4 21.7 -1 8.3 -1 6 -1.5 22.6 0.1

205.3 1.7 20.3 2.8 185 1.6 11.6 -0.7 35.9 -0.2 5.6 26.6 2.9 2.7 5.1 8.4 -0.1 36.1 6.6 31.8 3.4 21.7 -0.8 8.3 -1.4 6 -0.9 22.6 0.1

206.7 2.3 20.4 2.9 186.3 2.2 11.7 2 36.1 0.4 5.6 26.8 2.9 2.7 4 8.4 0.6 36.8 7.7 32 3.4 21.7 0 8.2 -1.9 6 -0.6 22.7 0.3

13928 13812.8 13711.9 13640.5 13618.8 13630.3 13689.8 541.5 541.9 542.4 543.1 544 545.1 546.1 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 268.3 268.5 268.8 269.2 269.4 269.9 270.6 1.4 1.7 1.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 7.4 8.1 8.6 8.9 9.1 9.3 9.4 1678 1237 1103 1061 1343 1568 2286 1090 1039 927 832 1172 1418 2116 589 198 177 229 171 150 170

*Quarterly an an annual rate

203.5 -3.6 20.7 -10.1 182.8 -2.8 12.5 -9.5 35.2 -3 5.5 26.5 2.7 2.6 -5.8 8.4 -3.6 35.3 -6 29.6 0.7 22 -0.2 8.4 2.1 6.1 -1.7 22.7 -1.9

19.5 -0.1 9.2 10.3 16 -0.1 35.9 29.5 45.3 2.5

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

13764 13792.4 13891.4 14027.8 14173.7 14333.6 547.3 548.5 549.9 551.4 553 554.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 1 1 1.1 271.4 272.1 272.8 273.6 274.3 275.1 0.8 1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.2 9 2759 3119 3456 3693 3910 4287 2558 2994 3334 3476 3549 3816 201 125 123 217 361 471

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

December 2008 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

13.3 3.6 6.7 6.6 13.1 1.5 27.4 26.8 34.1 3.7

13.9 3.9 6.9 7 13.4 2.5 27.9 27 35.2 3.4

14.6 5.3 7.4 7.2 13.8 3.2 28.9 27.3 36.9 4.7

15.8 8.2 8.1 7.7 14.6 5.4 30.5 28.1 38.7 4.7

16.9 7.4 8.7 8.2 15.2 4.3 32.2 28.8 40.4 4.4

18.3 7.8 9.2 9.1 15.9 4.9 34.3 29.9 42 4.1

18.8 3.1 9.3 9.5 16 0.5 35.1 29.8 43.2 2.7

19.4 2.9 9.3 10.1 15.9 -0.5 35.9 29.5 43.6 1.1

19.5 0.7 9.2 10.3 16.1 1 36 29.6 44.9 2.9

19.8 1.3 9.4 10.4 16 -0.4 36.2 29.3 46 2.4

20.6 4.1 9.8 10.8 16.3 1.9 37.3 29.6 47.3 2.8

212.5 3.5 23.9 1.2 188.5 3.8 17.2 16.2 37.1 4.5 5.2 28 3.8 2.9 6 8.4 7.8 38.7 4.5 27.3 1.8 20.5 3.5 8.1 -2.8 6.1 1.8 22.2 -2.8

216.1 1.7 24.6 2.7 191.6 1.6 18.1 5 37.4 1 5.5 28.3 3.6 2.9 0.1 8.6 2.4 38.4 -1 28.2 3.1 21.2 3.5 8.1 -0.7 6.2 1.7 22.6 1.7

212.4 -1.7 23.8 -3.3 188.6 -1.5 15.2 -15.8 36.8 -1.6 5.6 28 3.3 2.8 -3.2 8.7 0.8 37.5 -2.3 28.7 2 21.6 1.6 8.2 1.1 6.2 0.2 23 1.7

210 -1.1 22.6 -4.8 187.4 -0.7 13.7 -10.1 36.1 -1.9 5.6 27.6 2.9 2.7 -2.9 8.6 -0.3 37.3 -0.4 29.5 2.7 21.9 1.7 8.2 0.2 6.2 0.1 23.1 0.4

203 -3.3 20.5 -9.2 182.5 -2.6 12.3 -10 35.4 -2 5.5 26.8 2.8 2.6 -5.2 8.4 -2.3 35 -6.3 29.7 0.7 21.9 -0.2 8.4 2.1 6.1 -0.9 22.6 -1.9

201.5 -0.7 19.8 -3.9 181.8 -0.4 11.6 -5.8 35.9 1.4 5.5 27.3 2.8 2.6 -2 8.4 -0.7 33.8 -3.4 30.6 3.1 21.8 -0.4 8.4 0.4 6.1 -0.2 22.6 -0.2

204.8 1.6 20.2 2.4 184.6 1.5 11.6 -0.4 35.9 0 5.5 26.7 2.9 2.7 4 8.4 -0.1 35.8 5.9 31.7 3.4 21.7 -0.6 8.3 -1.2 6 -1.3 22.6 0.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

193.3 0.9 23.8 -4 169.5 1.7 13.2 5.1 34.8 2.1 5 26.8 3 3.1 1.2 7.1 5.8 34.1 -1.5 24.4 2.1 18.6 2.4 7.5 -2 5.8 1.1 21 3.4

192.5 -0.4 22.9 -3.9 169.6 0.1 12.7 -3.1 34.8 -0.1 4.8 26.6 3.3 2.8 -10.8 7.3 3.4 33.4 -2.2 25.3 3.5 18.6 0.1 7.6 1 5.7 -1.8 21.6 2.9

196.6 2.1 22.8 -0.5 173.8 2.5 13 2.3 34.2 -1.6 4.6 26.3 3.3 2.8 0 7.3 0.7 34.7 4.1 26.7 5.7 18.9 1.8 8.2 8.4 5.7 1.2 22.1 2.6

205.3 4.4 23.6 3.8 181.7 4.5 14.8 13.6 35.5 3.7 4.7 27.2 3.6 2.8 -0.9 7.8 5.8 37.1 6.8 26.8 0.3 19.8 4.7 8.4 1.6 5.9 3.9 22.9 3.3

11718.9 12105.5 12831.5 13908.1 14920.9 15348.3 15059.1 14814.5 487.1 495.7 505.3 517.6 527.1 532.4 536.7 540.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.4 1.8 1 0.8 0.7 235.7 238.2 242 248.3 253.6 259.3 262 266.4 1.6 1.1 1.6 2.6 2.1 2.3 1 1.7 4.4 5.7 5.2 4.4 3.7 3.4 4.4 6.3 5073 6591 6115 8212 8487 5346 2807 1866 4499 5091 5578 6313 7206 4370 2204 1246 573 1500 537 1899 1281 977 603 620

13696 13719.1 14106.6 542.8 546.8 552.2 0.4 0.7 1 269 271 274 1 0.8 1.1 8.7 9.5 9.2 1186 2433 3837 993 2272 3544 194 161 293

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is comprised of Escambia County and Santa Rosa County. Located in the northwest corner of the state bordering Alabama, this region is home to the Pensacola Naval Air Station, Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval Aviation. This area has been referred to as the “Cradle of Naval Aviation.”

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is expected to achieve relatively low growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 2.1 percent each year on average, while average annual wage rate growth should be about 2.2 percent, some of the lowest growth rates in the state. Employment growth is expected to decline by 0.7 percent on average each year. Housing starts are expected to grow 11.3 percent each year. At 2.5 percent average annual growth, education and health services will be the top sector in Pensacola. Following that sector is leisure, growing on average 0.2 percent each year. Unemployment is expected to average 7.1 percent annually.

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 453,451 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Escambia County population estimate of 306,407 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Santa Rosa County population estimate of 147,044 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 208,802 in January 2008 for the MSA (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 4.2% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 8,857 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Local Government – 15,790 employees • Federal Government – 7,403 employees • State Government – 5,970 employees • Sacred Heart Health System – 3,500 employees • Baptist Health Care – 3,470 employees • University of West Florida – 2,267 employees • Solutia, Inc. – 1,800 employees • Lakeview – 1,500 employees • Gulf Power Company – 1,400 employees • West Florida Hospital – 1,200 employees Source: Greater Pensacola Chamber of Commerce

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Council OK’s hotel deal • Hotel developer Julian MacQueen was granted a lease of 11.4 acres for a $24-million hotel development at Pensacola Gulf Coast Regional Airport. • After two controversial appraisals, MacQueen was granted the lease, which will be used to build a hotel with retail, office, and restaurant space. • The lease is valid for the next 50 years with three 10-year renewal options. Source: Pensacola News Journal, November 21, 2008 Area banks getting share of economic bailout money • Hotel developer Julian MacQueen was set to begin a new $60-million development this August when Wall Street imploded, and he was left without the remaining 10% of funding he needed to get started. • With the bailout, several prominent area banks are getting $3.5 billion each, meaning help is on the way. • With this money going to developers, hundreds of jobs are expected to become available as new projects begin. Source: Pensacola News Journal, November 2, 2008

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Tourism season 2008: Back to normal? • Pensacola tourism officials launched a “We’re Only a Tankful Away” ad campaign in response to a decrease in visitors over the summer; officials hoped to target day trippers from major Southeastern cities like New Orleans. • The campaign has proven helpful. Although tourists are spending less, Pensacola has had many new first-time visitors that usually drive through the city on their way to Destin or Panama City beaches. • Most business owners agree that this season has proven to be much better than expected, with some businesses topping their budgeted revenues by $500,000. Source: Pensacola News Journal, November 2, 2008 Wastewater treatment plant moving ahead • Considered one of the largest current construction projects in Florida, the malodorous Main Street Wastewater Treatment Plant will be relocated from downtown Pensacola to Cantonment at a cost of $302 million. • The project, which is set to be completed by summer 2010, is already employing nearly 100 workers. • The project is sure to create new jobs and keep many subcontractors afloat during this difficult time; one company has half of its 60 employees working on this project. Source: Pensacola News Journal, November 2, 2008 Economy forces closure of DayJet • Boca Raton-based air taxi provider, DayJet Services LLC, has stopped operations as a direct result of the financial crisis. • DayJet serviced 60 communities in the Southeast. The company’s close is expected to directly affect fuel sales and traffic. Source: Pensacola News Journal, September 22, 2008

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P e n s ac o l a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; F e r r y P a s s â&#x20AC;&#x201C; B r e n t Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0%

(percent)

0.4

0.6

1.4

1.6

11500.0

(Millions 2000 $)

11000.0 10000.0 9500.0 9000.0 8500.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 FL Unemployment Rate Pensacola Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

8000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Gross Metro Product

Pensacola Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

170.0 165.0

4.0%

160.0

2.0%

155.0

0.0%

150.0

1.2

10500.0

175.0

145.0

Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product

Pensacola Payroll Employment 180.0

0.8

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Pensacola Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

-2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Personal Income

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL*

December 2008 Forecast

2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

14.6 3.1 6.9 7.7 12 1 32.1 26.4 37.4 2.7

14.7 2.5 6.9 7.8 12.1 1.6 32.1 26.5 37.6 3.3

14.6 0.4 6.9 7.8 12.1 0.8 32 26.5 37.8 2.7

14.6 0.1 6.9 7.8 12.1 1.6 32 26.4 38 2.3

14.6 0 6.9 7.8 12 0 32.1 26.3 38.2 2.1

14.7 0 6.9 7.8 12 -0.9 32.1 26.2 38.4 2

14.7 0.8 6.9 7.8 12 -0.8 32.2 26.2 38.6 1.9

14.9 1.6 7 7.9 12 -0.4 32.5 26.2 38.8 2

14.9 2 7 7.9 12 -0.3 32.6 26.2 38.9 2

15 2.6 7.1 8 12 0.3 32.8 26.2 39.2 2.1

15.2 3.1 7.2 8 12.1 0.8 33.1 26.3 39.5 2.3

15.4 3.7 7.2 8.2 12.2 1.6 33.5 26.5 39.7 2.5

15.6 4.7 7.3 8.3 12.3 2.8 33.9 26.7 40 2.7

168.3 -3.2 6.1 -10.8 162.3 -2.9 11.8 -11.2 31.8 -1.9 6.3 21.3 4 3.1 -5.3 9.1 -2.8 20.8 -8.6 30.4 0 17.9 -0.5 8 2.8 6.4 -0.5 23 -2.1

167.6 -2.7 6 -10.1 161.7 -2.4 11.5 -11.3 31.9 -0.1 6.3 21.5 4 3.1 -4.4 9.1 -1.8 20.4 -8.6 30.5 0.4 17.8 -0.5 8.1 2.2 6.4 -0.5 23 -1.9

167.5 -1.9 5.9 -8.4 161.7 -1.7 11.3 -10.5 32 1.3 6.3 21.7 4 3 -3.7 9 -1.5 20.1 -8.2 30.8 1.6 17.8 -0.4 8.1 1.3 6.4 0 23 -1.4

167.7 -1 5.8 -6.2 161.9 -0.8 11.3 -7 32.1 1.6 6.2 21.6 4 3 -3.8 9 -0.9 20.1 -5.8 31.2 2.8 17.8 -0.6 8.1 0.5 6.4 -0.7 23 -0.8

167.9 -0.2 5.8 -4 162.1 -0.1 11.3 -3.8 32.1 1.1 6.2 21.5 4 3 -2.4 9 -1.2 20.2 -3 31.4 3.3 17.8 -0.4 8.1 0.1 6.3 -1.2 22.9 -0.5

167.9 0.2 5.8 -1.7 162 0.2 11.2 -3 32.1 0.4 6.2 21.3 4 3.1 -0.3 8.9 -1.3 20.4 0 31.5 3.3 17.7 -0.7 8.1 0 6.3 -1.3 22.9 -0.4

168.4 0.5 5.9 0.2 162.6 0.6 11.1 -2 32.1 0.1 6.2 21.2 4 3.1 2.1 8.9 -1.1 20.6 2.7 31.8 3.2 17.7 -0.6 8 -0.5 6.3 -2.7 22.9 -0.4

169.1 0.8 5.9 1.5 163.3 0.8 11.1 -1.8 32 -0.2 6.3 21.1 4 3.2 4.7 8.9 -1.1 21.1 4.8 32.1 3.2 17.8 -0.5 8 -1 6.3 -1.8 22.9 -0.4

169.9 1.2 5.9 1.6 164 1.1 11.2 -1.1 32.1 -0.1 6.3 21 4.1 3.2 5.2 8.9 -0.7 21.5 6.3 32.3 3.1 17.8 -0.2 7.9 -1.5 6.2 -1 22.8 -0.4

170.8 1.7 5.9 1.6 164.8 1.7 11.3 1.5 32.2 0.5 6.4 21.2 4.1 3.2 3.8 8.9 0 21.9 7.8 32.4 3.1 17.8 0.6 7.9 -2.2 6.2 -0.9 22.9 -0.2

10996.9 10905.6 10822.6 10757.1 456.2 456.3 456.3 456.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 214.6 214.3 214.1 213.9 1.6 0.9 0.7 -0.4 6.3 6.8 7.2 7.5 960 762 677 659 788 686 624 594 172 75 53 66

10733 456.6 0.1 213.8 -0.4 7.7 798 761 36

10734 10767.2 457 457.3 0.2 0.2 213.8 214.1 -0.2 0 7.8 7.9 928 1277 897 1243 31 34

10809 10814.2 10880.8 10972.9 11072.5 457.8 458.4 459.1 459.9 460.8 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 214.4 214.7 215 215.4 215.7 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.7 7.6 1497 1684 1861 1970 2063 1459 1680 1856 1933 1977 38 4 5 36 86

11181 461.6 0.7 216.1 0.7 7.4 2227 2104 123

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

172.3 -1.2 6.6 -3.2 165.7 -1.1 13 -9.1 32 -2.4 6.4 21.4 4.1 3.2 -5.5 9.2 -0.9 22.3 -3.3 30.4 2.2 17.9 0.7 7.9 0.2 6.4 -1 23.4 2

170.8 -2.8 6.4 -7.9 164.4 -2.6 12.7 -8.5 31.6 -4.1 6.3 21.1 4.1 3.2 -7.1 9.2 -3.6 21.9 -4.9 30.3 0.3 17.9 -1.7 8 1.5 6.4 -1.3 23.3 0.3

169.4 -3 6.2 -8.6 163.2 -2.8 12.2 -9.6 31.6 -4 6.3 21 4 3.1 -5.2 9.1 -3.8 21.3 -6.6 30.3 -0.3 18 -0.2 8 3 6.4 0.3 23.1 -0.9

*Quarterly an an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

December 2008 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

10.2 4.8 5.1 5.1 10 2.6 24.1 23.6 29.6 2.8

10.5 3.2 5.1 5.4 10.1 1.8 24.5 23.6 29.9 1

10.9 4.1 5.4 5.6 10.3 2.1 25.1 23.8 30.8 3

11.7 7.4 5.8 6 10.8 4.7 26.6 24.6 32.6 5.9

12.5 6.7 6.1 6.4 11.2 3.7 28.1 25.2 33.9 3.8

13.6 8.5 6.6 7 11.9 5.6 30.1 26.3 35.7 5.3

14.1 3.6 6.8 7.3 12 0.9 31 26.4 36.4 1.9

14.5 3.2 6.9 7.6 11.9 -0.2 31.9 26.2 36.9 1.6

14.6 0.7 6.9 7.8 12.1 1 32.1 26.4 37.9 2.6

14.8 1.1 7 7.8 12 -0.6 32.3 26.2 38.7 2

15.3 3.5 7.2 8.1 12.2 1.4 33.3 26.4 39.6 2.4

168.7 3.6 7.5 3.1 161.1 3.6 13.9 19.4 32.3 6.2 6.2 21.9 4.2 3.8 -4.7 8.2 9.9 23.1 7.1 26 -2.9 17.2 -0.9 7.8 -1.6 6.7 -0.5 22.2 2

173.1 2.6 7.4 -1.4 165.7 2.8 15.4 10.4 32.2 -0.2 6.2 21.8 4.2 3.8 0.7 8.9 8.4 23.2 0.5 27.5 5.9 17.7 2.5 7.8 0 6.7 0.4 22.5 1.4

174.4 0.8 7 -5.6 167.4 1.1 14.6 -4.6 32.8 1.9 6.6 22.2 4.1 3.5 -7.8 9.3 4.9 23 -1.1 29.2 6.2 17.6 -0.3 7.9 1.2 6.5 -2.8 22.8 1.6

174.2 -0.1 6.8 -3.2 167.4 0 13.4 -8.6 32.6 -0.8 6.5 21.8 4.2 3.3 -5.4 9.4 0.3 22.7 -1.1 30.3 3.9 18 2.3 7.8 -0.9 6.4 -1.7 23.4 2.4

169 -2.9 6.2 -9.3 162.9 -2.7 12 -10.1 31.7 -2.5 6.3 21.2 4 3.1 -5.5 9.1 -3 21.1 -7.2 30.4 0.1 17.9 -0.7 8 2.4 6.4 -0.5 23.1 -1.2

167.8 -0.7 5.8 -5.2 161.9 -0.6 11.3 -6.2 32.1 1.1 6.2 21.5 4 3 -2.6 9 -1.2 20.2 -4.3 31.2 2.8 17.8 -0.5 8.1 0.5 6.4 -0.8 22.9 -0.8

169.6 1.1 5.9 1.2 163.7 1.1 11.2 -0.9 32.1 0.1 6.3 21.1 4.1 3.2 3.9 8.9 -0.7 21.3 5.4 32.2 3.1 17.8 -0.2 8 -1.3 6.2 -1.6 22.9 -0.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

155.1 1.2 7.9 -10.1 147.2 1.9 12.8 6.3 29.1 -1.7 5.5 20.2 3.4 3.7 -11.3 6.9 1.2 18.3 2.5 24.2 3 15.7 11.7 7.4 -0.7 7.4 -4.2 21.7 1.9

154.7 -0.3 7.3 -7.1 147.3 0.1 11.1 -13.4 29.1 0.2 5.3 20.5 3.4 4.2 13.6 6.5 -6 19.2 5.4 25.3 4.6 15.7 -0.2 7.7 2.9 6.9 -6.2 21.6 -0.8

9358.5 421.4 1.7 186.4 -0.6 4.8 3091 2983 108

9321.7 428.5 1.7 187.3 0.5 5.3 3141 2955 186

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

158.5 2.5 7.4 1.1 151.1 2.6 10.8 -2.8 29.4 1 5.3 20.8 3.3 4.1 -2 6.8 4.6 20.1 4.6 26.8 6.2 16.6 6.1 7.9 2.6 6.9 -0.5 21.6 0

162.9 2.8 7.3 -1.3 155.6 3 11.6 7.8 30.4 3.2 5.6 21.1 3.7 3.9 -4.5 7.5 9.8 21.6 7.2 26.7 -0.4 17.4 4.7 7.9 0.9 6.7 -2.2 21.8 0.9

9681.7 10254.9 10536.6 10943.9 10972.8 11023.1 10804.6 10781.1 11026.8 434.5 440.7 445.9 451.2 453.7 455.7 456.4 457.6 460.3 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.6 191.1 194.3 197.9 203.4 209.2 213.6 214 214.3 215.6 2.1 1.7 1.8 2.8 2.9 2.1 0.2 0.1 0.6 4.8 4.6 3.8 3.2 3.8 5.4 7.3 7.9 7.7 4426 4713 3764 2765 2471 1391 724 1347 2030 3558 3629 3285 2325 1778 1131 666 1320 1968 868 1083 479 440 693 260 58 27 63

Ta l l a h a s s ee

P r o fi l e s The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla counties. It is located between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State University and Florida A&M University. Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 352,319 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Gadsden County population estimate of 47,197 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Jefferson County population estimate of 14,451 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Leon County population estimate of 260,945 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Wakulla County population estimate of 29,726 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • An MSA civilian labor force of 186,760 in January 2008 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3.3% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 6,153 unemployed people for the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • State Government (all departments) – 46,200 employees • Local Government (all departments) – 16,100 employees • Tallahassee Memorial Healthcare – 2,750 employees • Federal Government (all departments) – 1,900 employees • Alltel Florida, Inc. – 1,000 employees • Tallahassee Leon County Civic Center - 672 employees • Quincy Corp. - 575 employees • Capital Regional Medical Center - 572 employees

• Meridian Healthcare Group - 500 employees • Branch Banking & Trust Co. - 403 employees Sources: Florida Regional Economic Database and Tallahassee Economic Development Council

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s The Tallahassee area is expected to maintain moderate growth in the indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 2.6 percent, while average annual wage is also expected to grow 2.6 percent. Employment growth will decline by 1.0 percent annually. Per capita income levels should average 27.3 each year. Housing starts are expected to grow by only 0.1 percent, one of the lowest in the state. Education and health services will be the leading sector in Tallahassee, averaging 2.2 percent annually. Other services follow that sector with 0.7 percent average annual growth. Unemployment in the area is expected to average 5.9 percent each year.

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Officials: Close parks to save money • In order to reduce spending by 10%, Florida park officials have recommended closing several Tallahassee area parks. • Most of the parks identified for possible closure are among the least visited, but there are also a few recent purchases undergoing scrutiny, such as a 2006 purchase for $10.6 million. • If closed, the parks will be under the supervision of a full-time caretaker until reopened. Source: The Tallahassee Democrat, November 16, 2008 Quincy Farms to close, lay off 490 • Quincy Farms, Gadsden County’s largest business, will be closing its doors in January, laying off 490 employees in the process, the third largest in the state this year.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Ta l l a h a s s ee

• There is an expected economic impact on the county as the tax revenues, consumer spending, and consumer confidence all take a hit while the 490 employees find new jobs. • Quincy Farms is the second significantly sized U.S. farm (of only 75) to close in the past few years. Residents and officials were shocked to hear that despite the production of 15 to 20-million pounds of mushrooms, Quincy will still have to close its doors. Source: The Tallahassee Democrat, November 14, 2008 Tallahassee commissioners unanimous in support of $10 million addition to margin fund • Tallahassee City Commissioners all agreed to add $10 million to the New York Mercantile Exchange Margin Fund, a fund used to act as a deposit to secure financial contracts on natural gas. • The $10 million will come from the Rate Stabilization Fund which is used to keep utility fees down. • The $10 million will be added to an existing $20 million in the fund and will be used to expand the city’s portfolio and buy gas while prices are down. Source: The Tallahassee Democrat, November 6, 2008 LCSO returns $1.5 million to county commission • Leon County Sheriff’s Office returned more than $1.5 million to the Leon County Commission after the delayed opening of the Leon County jail annex led to scrutinizing expenditures. • The largest amount of budget money ever returned to the Leon County Commission was accrued through the reduction of overtime, travel and supply expenses, and delaying the opening and staffing of the remodeled jail. Source: The Tallahassee Democrat, November 4, 2008

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

Fees paid by developers will go toward major work projects • After three years, Tallahassee adopted a new growth management plan that will direct fees paid by developers to big road projects. • Developers would be paying for costly projects ranging from widening Mahan Drive ($40 million) to developing bicycling and pedestrian projects. Source: The Tallahassee Democrat, October 23, 2008

Ta l l a h a s s ee Tallahassee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.5

Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0%

(percent)

2.5

100000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

90000.0 80000.0 70000.0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 FL Unemployment Rate Tallahassee Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

175.0

60000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Gross Metro Product

Tallahassee Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

170.0

4.0%

165.0

2.0%

160.0

0.0%

155.0 150.0

Tampa Real Gross Metro Product

Tallahassee Payroll Employment 180.0

1.5

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Tallahassee Payroll Employment

-2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Ta l l a h a s s ee

Quarterly Outlook for Tallahassee, FL*

December 2008 Forecast

2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

11.9 2.7 6.8 5.2 9.8 0.6 33.3 27.3 38.4 2.9

12 2.6 6.8 5.2 9.9 1.7 33.3 27.5 38.7 3.5

12 1 6.8 5.2 9.9 1.4 33.2 27.4 38.9 3.1

12 0.6 6.8 5.2 9.9 2.1 33.2 27.4 39.2 2.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

175.7 -1.9 4.4 -4.7 171.4 -1.8 8.4 -11.6 24.2 -3.3 3.9 17.9 2.3 3.8 -9 8 -2.6 19 -4.7 18.5 2.5 17.4 1.6 8.9 0.9 1.9 1.6 61.2 -0.8

10254.4 358.5 1.1 188.7 0.6 5.2 1191 696 495

174.4 -2.7 4.2 -8.9 170.2 -2.5 8.2 -10.6 24 -3.3 3.8 17.7 2.3 3.7 -13.2 7.9 -4.5 18.7 -4.9 18.5 1.1 17.4 -0.9 9 2 1.9 0.8 60.9 -1.5

10165 10094.8 359.2 360 1 0.8 188.3 188 0.4 0.7 5.7 6 1077 982 652 605 426 377

*Quarterly an an annual rate

173.2 -2.5 4.1 -9.9 169.1 -2.3 7.9 -10.2 23.9 -4.4 3.8 17.6 2.3 3.7 -10.6 7.9 -5.6 18.2 -7.2 18.5 0.7 17.5 0.3 9.1 2.9 1.9 1.3 60.6 -0.4

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

172.1 -2.9 4 -11.6 168.2 -2.7 7.6 -11.1 24.1 -1.9 3.8 17.9 2.3 3.6 -5.5 7.9 -2.9 17.7 -8.9 18.5 0.1 17.4 -0.7 9.2 3.3 1.9 -0.1 60.3 -2

12 0.5 6.8 5.2 9.9 0.5 33.2 27.3 39.4 2.6

12 0.6 6.8 5.2 9.8 -0.3 33.3 27.2 39.6 2.5

12.1 1.4 6.9 5.3 9.9 -0.2 33.4 27.2 39.9 2.4

12.3 2.3 6.9 5.4 9.9 0.3 33.7 27.2 40.1 2.4

12.3 2.8 6.9 5.4 9.9 0.5 33.8 27.2 40.4 2.5

12.5 3.4 7 5.5 9.9 1.1 34.1 27.2 40.7 2.6

12.6 3.7 7.1 5.5 10 1.4 34.4 27.3 41 2.8

12.8 4.1 7.2 5.6 10.1 2 34.8 27.5 41.3 2.9

12.9 4.9 7.2 5.7 10.2 2.9 35.2 27.7 41.6 3.1

171.4 -2.5 3.9 -11 167.5 -2.3 7.5 -10.7 24.2 -0.1 3.8 18.1 2.3 3.6 -4.6 7.9 -1.9 17.3 -9.1 18.6 0.5 17.3 -0.6 9.2 2.6 1.9 0.1 60.1 -1.9

171.1 -1.9 3.8 -9.2 167.3 -1.7 7.4 -9.6 24.3 1.4 3.8 18.2 2.3 3.6 -3.8 7.8 -1.5 17.1 -8.8 18.7 1.6 17.3 -0.4 9.2 1.5 2 2.2 59.9 -1.5

171.1 -1.2 3.8 -7 167.3 -1 7.4 -6.2 24.3 1.7 3.8 18.1 2.2 3.5 -4.3 7.8 -0.9 17 -6.5 18.9 2.6 17.3 -0.8 9.2 0.8 1.9 0.5 59.9 -1.1

171.2 -0.5 3.8 -4.7 167.4 -0.4 7.4 -3.2 24.3 1 3.8 18 2.2 3.5 -2.7 7.8 -1 17.1 -3.8 19.1 3 17.3 -0.4 9.2 0.5 1.9 -0.6 59.8 -0.7

171.1 -0.2 3.8 -2.2 167.3 -0.1 7.3 -2.5 24.3 0.2 3.8 17.8 2.2 3.6 -0.5 7.8 -1.1 17.2 -0.8 19.1 3 17.2 -0.8 9.2 0.4 1.9 -1.1 59.8 -0.5

171.4 0.2 3.8 -0.2 167.5 0.2 7.3 -1.6 24.2 -0.2 3.8 17.7 2.2 3.6 2.2 7.8 -0.8 17.4 2 19.3 2.9 17.1 -1 9.2 -0.1 1.9 -3 59.8 -0.3

171.8 0.4 3.8 1.3 168 0.4 7.3 -1.4 24.2 -0.6 3.8 17.6 2.3 3.7 5.1 7.7 -0.8 17.7 4.4 19.5 2.7 17.1 -1.3 9.1 -0.8 1.9 -1.8 59.8 -0.2

172.4 0.7 3.8 1.3 168.6 0.7 7.3 -0.7 24.2 -0.5 3.8 17.6 2.3 3.7 5.5 7.7 -0.5 18.1 6.2 19.6 2.7 17.1 -1.1 9.1 -1.4 1.9 -1.1 59.8 -0.1

173.1 1.2 3.9 1.3 169.2 1.2 7.4 1.7 24.3 0.1 3.9 17.7 2.3 3.7 3.9 7.8 0.1 18.5 8.1 19.6 2.7 17.1 -0.3 9 -2.3 1.9 -0.6 59.9 0.1

10034 10009.8 10010.3 10032.4 10060.8 10060.4 10111.7 10193.3 10284.1 10382.5 360.8 361.5 362.3 363.1 363.9 364.7 365.5 366.3 367.1 367.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 187.8 187.6 187.6 187.8 188.1 188.4 188.8 189.1 189.5 189.9 -0.6 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 6.3 6.4 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.3 907 984 1038 1353 1517 1669 1812 1889 1948 2075 549 664 746 1030 1204 1379 1524 1582 1612 1711 358 320 292 323 312 290 288 306 336 364

Ta l l a h a s s ee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

December 2008 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

8.3 3.7 5.2 3 8.1 1.6 25.4 24.9 31.3 5

8.4 2.1 5.3 3.1 8.1 0.7 25.7 24.8 32.2 2.9

8.7 3.6 5.5 3.3 8.3 1.6 26.2 24.8 32.8 2.1

9.5 8.4 5.8 3.7 8.7 5.6 28 25.8 34.2 4.2

10.2 7.5 6.1 4.1 9.1 4.4 29.7 26.6 35 2.3

10.9 7.3 6.4 4.5 9.5 4.4 31.3 27.3 36.1 3

11.5 5 6.7 4.8 9.7 2.4 32.5 27.6 37.2 3.1

11.8 3.3 6.8 5.1 9.7 -0.1 33.1 27.2 37.9 2

12 1.2 6.8 5.2 9.9 1.4 33.2 27.4 39 3

12.2 1.8 6.9 5.3 9.9 0.1 33.5 27.2 40 2.4

12.7 4 7.1 5.6 10.1 1.8 34.6 27.4 41.1 2.9

172.8 2.8 4.2 0.8 168.6 2.8 9.4 12.4 25.4 3.4 3.6 19.3 2.5 4.1 1.9 8 4.8 19.2 5.6 16.8 2.7 15.6 8.3 8 -0.6 1.9 0 60.2 -0.5

177 2.4 4.5 4.9 172.5 2.4 9.8 4.8 25.6 0.9 3.7 19.4 2.4 3.9 -4.7 8.3 4.4 20.1 4.9 17.4 3.4 16.2 3.3 8.5 5.8 1.9 -1.7 60.8 1.1

178.7 1 4.6 2.8 174.2 1 9.5 -3.5 25.3 -1.2 3.9 19 2.4 4 3 8.3 -1 20 -0.3 17.9 2.6 16.9 4.5 8.8 4.6 1.9 0 61.6 1.3

177.5 -0.7 4.5 -1.7 173 -0.7 8.7 -8 24.7 -2.6 3.9 18.4 2.4 4 0.1 8.2 -0.6 19.4 -3 18.4 2.9 17.5 3.4 8.9 0.5 1.9 0.8 61.3 -0.5

172.8 -2.7 4 -10.3 168.7 -2.5 7.8 -10.7 24.1 -2.4 3.8 17.8 2.3 3.7 -8.6 7.9 -3.8 18 -7.5 18.5 0.6 17.4 -0.5 9.1 2.7 1.9 0.5 60.4 -1.4

171.1 -1 3.8 -5.9 167.3 -0.8 7.4 -5.5 24.3 1 3.8 18 2.2 3.6 -2.9 7.8 -1.1 17.1 -5.1 19 2.5 17.3 -0.6 9.2 0.8 1.9 0.2 59.9 -0.9

172.2 0.6 3.8 0.9 168.3 0.6 7.3 -0.5 24.2 -0.3 3.8 17.7 2.3 3.7 4.2 7.8 -0.5 18 5.2 19.5 2.7 17.1 -0.9 9.1 -1.2 1.9 -1.6 59.8 -0.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

165.9 -0.4 4.4 -13 161.5 0 6.9 -4.9 24.1 -4.9 3.7 18.4 2 4.6 -5.1 6.9 -0.5 18.7 6.4 16.8 -0.2 13 7.2 8.1 -1.1 1.9 -6.5 60.3 0.3

164.4 -0.9 4.1 -6.6 160.2 -0.8 7.2 3.5 23.4 -3.1 3.2 18.1 2.1 4 -13.4 7.4 7.4 18.2 -2.7 16.5 -1.8 13.4 3.2 8.1 -0.2 1.9 2.2 60.1 -0.4

165.7 0.8 4.1 -0.6 161.6 0.8 7.7 7.1 23.5 0.5 3 18.5 2 3.8 -3.8 7.7 3 18.2 -0.1 16.7 1.1 13.6 1.6 7.8 -3.7 2 3 60.6 0.8

9227.4 325 1 172.5 0 3.7 2648 1886 762

9378.6 328.6 1.1 172.5 0 4.5 2661 2177 483

9571.8 333.8 1.6 173.4 0.5 4.2 3822 2424 1398

168.2 1.5 4.2 2 163.9 1.5 8.3 8.6 24.6 4.4 3.3 19.1 2.1 4 4.6 7.6 -0.7 18.2 -0.2 16.4 -1.7 14.4 6.1 8 2.8 1.9 -3.3 60.5 -0.1

9807.7 10246.3 10455.7 10513.8 10488.7 10075.9 338.2 342.9 348.2 352.9 357.3 360.4 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.2 0.9 173.4 175.6 180.8 185.7 187.9 187.9 0 1.3 2.9 2.8 1.2 0 3.8 3.2 2.9 3.2 4.4 6.1 3382 3702 3096 2760 1448 988 2131 2767 2536 2166 976 617 1251 934 560 594 473 370

10041 10242.9 363.5 366.7 0.9 0.9 188 189.3 0.1 0.7 6.6 6.5 1394 1931 1090 1607 304 324

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r w a t e r

P r o fi l e s The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is comprised of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas counties. Located centrally on the west coast of Florida, this region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge Docks, Ybor City, Bush Gardens, the University of South Florida, and the University of Tampa. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Devil Rays also call this region home. Quick Facts: • MSA population estimate of 2,723,949 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hernando County population estimate of 169,070 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hillsborough County population estimate of 1,174,727 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Pasco County population estimate of 462,715 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Pinellas County population estimate of 917,437 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 1,341,382 in January 2008 for the entire region (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 4.8% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 64,031 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Publix Super Markets – 23,248 employees • Hillsborough County School District – 21,426 employees • MacDill Air Force Base – 19,000 employees • Baycare – 17,000 employees • Verizon Communications – 14,000 employees • University of South Florida – 12,477 employees • Hillsborough County Government – 10,886 employees • Danka Business Systems – 9,500 employees

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

• Tampa International Airport – 8,000 employees • Lincare Holdings – 6,100 employees Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal & Committee of One Hundred Research

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is expected to show relatively moderate gains in the state. Personal income growth is expected to be 2.7 percent on average each year. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.8 percent, one of the highest in the state. Employment growth will decline 0.8 percent on average. Tampa is forecasted to have one of the highest gross metro products, averaging 91,191.4 each year. The fastest growing sector in the Tampa area is education and health services, growing 2.5 percent each year. The federal government follows with an average annual growth rate of 1.2 percent. Unemployment in the area is expected to average 7.9 percent each year.

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Budget cuts mean denial for local funding requests • City and county government officials’, along with civic groups’ requests for state money, are being turned down by Hillsborough County’s state legislators as a result of a tight budget. • More than $9 million in requests have been canceled, including $185,000 for a transitional housing program for the homeless and $3 million for beds for uninsured mentally ill patients at Mental Health Care, Inc.’s Tampa facilities. Source: Tampa Bay Online, November 28, 2008 Tampa-St. Pete existing home sales up 11% in October • Existing single-family home sales were up 11% in the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater market in October, compared to a year ago, but were below the statewide average of 15%.

Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r w a t e r

• A 26% drop in median sales prices in the area, from $205,600 October 2007 to only $152,300 October 2008, made homes more affordable, contributing to increased home sales. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, November 24, 2008 Partnership scorecard places Tampa Bay last among similar regions • Tampa Bay Partnership’s most recent economic scorecard ranked Tampa Bay last among six comparable metropolitan areas—Jacksonville, Atlanta, Dallas, Charlotte, N.C., and Raleigh/ Durham, N.C.

USF research funding increases 17 percent • The University of South Florida received a 17% increase in research funding last year, nearly $50 million more than the previous fiscal year. • Federal and state funding for research, along with independent organizations’ funding, accounted for these increases. The National Institutes of Health awarded the university $107.5 million, up from $62.5 million the previous year. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, September 10, 2008

• The ranking was based on six areas of the economy—employment and workforce, income and productivity, housing, innovation, education, and transportation. The Bay area ranked last in employment and workforce, housing, and transportation. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, November 19, 2008 Number of foreclosures continues to rise in Tampa Bay area • In October, home foreclosures rose 79% in Pinellas County and 75% in Hillsborough County compared to October a year ago. • Pasco County saw the largest increase in foreclosures in the area, at 186% above October 2007, or one in every 129 homes in foreclosure. • Hernando County actually saw a 5% drop in foreclosure rates during this time period. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, November 13, 2008

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Tampa â&#x20AC;&#x201C; S t. P e t e r s bu r g â&#x20AC;&#x201C; C l ea r w a t e r Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

Florida & Tampa Unemployment Rate 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0%

(percent)

0.4

0.6

1.2

1.4

1.6

Tampa Real Gross Metro Product 100000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

90000.0 80000.0 70000.0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 FL Unemployment Rate Tampa Unemployment Rate

60000.0

Tampa Payroll Employment 1350.0

(Thousands)

1300.0

Tampa Real Personal Income 8.0%

1200.0

4.0%

1150.0

2.0%

1100.0

(percent change year ago)

0.0%

1050.0 1000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Gross Metro Product

6.0%

1250.0

0.8

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Tampa Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

-2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Personal Income

Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r w a t e r

Quarterly Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL*

December 2008 Forecast

2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

104.5 2.9 53.9 50.7 85.9 0.8 37.8 31 42.1 3.1

104.9 2.8 53.8 51.1 86.5 1.9 37.9 31.2 42.4 3.7

104.6 0.6 53.6 51 86.4 1 37.7 31.1 42.7 3.2

104.5 0.3 53.5 51 86.1 1.8 37.6 30.9 43 2.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1267.9 -2 68.7 -5.4 1199.2 -1.7 72.8 -9.6 228.5 -1.4 53.2 145.3 29.2 30.2 -4.4 100.3 0.6 274.5 -5.9 167.2 1.9 123.2 1.4 47.6 1.4 22.3 4.2 132.7 0.7

1255.8 -3 66.3 -8.3 1189.5 -2.7 71.5 -10.2 225.8 -3.1 52.5 142.9 28.8 29.4 -5.7 99.7 -0.2 270.2 -6.6 167.4 1.6 122.8 0 48.2 0.8 22.4 0.8 132.1 0.2

1243.3 -3.4 64.1 -10 1179.3 -3 69.3 -12.1 225.2 -2.9 52.1 142.4 28.5 29.2 -5.9 99 -1.5 263.1 -7.2 167.6 1.3 123.4 0.1 48.6 2.8 22.3 -0.4 131.6 -0.3

1234.6 -3.5 62.7 -11.3 1171.9 -3 66.9 -11.1 226.3 -1.9 51.9 144.8 28.2 28.7 -6.6 99.1 -1.8 257.7 -7.7 168.2 1.1 122.6 -0.7 48.8 4.1 22.3 0 131.3 -1

90975.3 2766 1 1359 0.8 7.2 6696 4298 2398

90169 2771.2 0.9 1359.4 0.3 7.8 5144 4058 1086

89439 88881.9 2776.6 2782.5 0.8 0.8 1360.5 1361.6 0.9 0.3 8.2 8.4 4617 4509 3656 3243 961 1266

104.7 0.1 53.6 51.1 86 0.1 37.5 30.8 43.2 2.6

105.1 0.2 53.9 51.2 85.9 -0.7 37.6 30.7 43.5 2.5

106 1.4 54.3 51.7 86.2 -0.2 37.8 30.8 43.7 2.4

107.2 2.6 54.8 52.4 86.6 0.6 38.2 30.8 44 2.4

108.1 3.3 55.3 52.8 86.8 1 38.4 30.8 44.3 2.6

109.2 3.9 56.1 53.1 87.2 1.6 38.6 30.9 44.7 2.7

110.6 4.3 56.9 53.8 87.9 2 39 31 45 2.9

112.5 4.9 57.8 54.7 89 2.7 39.6 31.3 45.3 3

114.5 5.9 58.8 55.7 90.2 3.9 40.2 31.7 45.7 3.1

1229.3 -3.1 61.5 -10.6 1167.8 -2.6 65.4 -10.1 227.3 -0.5 51.6 146.6 28.1 28.3 -6.4 99.1 -1.2 253.9 -7.5 169.1 1.1 122.4 -0.6 48.8 2.5 22.3 -0.1 131.2 -1.1

1228.7 -2.2 60.4 -8.9 1168.3 -1.8 64.5 -9.9 227.9 0.9 51.3 147.6 27.9 27.8 -5.5 98.6 -1 253.1 -6.4 170.8 2 122.4 -0.3 48.9 1.5 23 3 131.3 -0.6

1230.9 -1 59.8 -6.7 1171.1 -0.7 64.6 -6.7 228.3 1.4 51.2 147.2 27.8 27.4 -6.1 98.3 -0.6 254.4 -3.3 172.5 2.9 122.6 -0.7 49 0.8 22.7 1.7 131.3 -0.2

1234.9 0 59.9 -4.4 1175 0.3 64.7 -3.3 228.5 1 51.1 146.3 27.8 27.4 -4.4 98 -1.1 257.3 -0.2 173.9 3.4 122.5 -0.1 49 0.6 22.4 0.3 131.4 0

1237.5 0.7 60.2 -2 1177.3 0.8 63.8 -2.4 228.5 0.5 51 145.2 27.8 27.7 -2 97.7 -1.4 260.4 2.6 174.7 3.3 121.8 -0.5 49.1 0.6 22.3 -0.2 131.3 0.1

1243.9 1.2 60.4 0 1183.4 1.3 63.6 -1.3 228.3 0.2 51 144.3 27.8 28.1 0.9 97.4 -1.2 265.6 5 176.6 3.4 121.4 -0.8 48.9 0.1 22.2 -3.8 131.3 0

1252.6 1.8 60.6 1.4 1191.9 1.8 63.8 -1.2 228 -0.1 51.3 143.4 28 28.6 4.3 97 -1.3 273 7.3 178.2 3.3 121.1 -1.2 48.7 -0.5 22.2 -2.5 131.4 0

1262.8 2.3 60.9 1.5 1201.9 2.3 64.4 -0.5 228.4 -0.1 51.7 143.3 28.3 28.7 4.8 97.2 -0.8 280.8 9.2 179.5 3.3 120.9 -1.3 48.4 -1.2 22.2 -1 131.4 0

1275.8 3.1 61.2 1.6 1214.6 3.2 65.2 2.2 229.6 0.5 52.1 144.5 28.5 28.6 3.2 97.9 0.2 290.1 11.4 180.4 3.3 121 -0.7 48.1 -2.1 22.2 -0.3 131.6 0.2

88716 88828.9 89139.9 89582.4 89758.4 90401.7 91325.2 92363.5 93564.7 2788.5 2795 2802 2809.8 2817.6 2825.3 2833.2 2841.4 2849.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1 1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1362.2 1363.8 1366.4 1369 1371.8 1375 1378.2 1381.7 1385.6 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.7 8.5 8.3 8.1 5523 6180 8507 10272 11599 12901 13991 15088 16600 4503 5234 7467 9120 10768 12037 12690 13103 14117 1020 946 1040 1151 831 865 1301 1985 2483

*Quarterly an an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r w a t e r

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

December 2008 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

71.7 4.1 40.2 31.5 70.2 2 29.3 28.7 33.7 4.6

74.2 3.4 41.4 32.8 71.6 2 29.8 28.8 34.8 3.5

76.5 3.1 41.9 34.6 72.4 1.1 30.2 28.6 35.1 0.7

82.5 7.9 44.9 37.6 76.1 5.1 31.9 29.4 36 2.7

88.7 7.5 48.1 40.6 79.4 4.4 33.5 30 37.2 3.2

96.5 8.8 51.6 44.9 84.1 5.9 35.8 31.2 39.2 5.5

100.5 4.2 53.2 47.3 85.4 1.5 36.8 31.3 40.5 3.4

103.7 3.2 53.8 49.9 85.2 -0.2 37.6 30.9 41.5 2.5

104.7 1 53.6 51 86.2 1.2 37.7 31 42.8 3.1

106.6 1.9 54.6 52 86.4 0.2 38 30.8 43.9 2.5

111.7 4.8 57.4 54.3 88.6 2.6 39.4 31.2 45.2 3

1281.5 3.7 75.3 0.9 1206.2 3.8 84.4 12.2 232.2 3.3 52.8 148 31.4 32.7 -0.6 98.8 4.2 290 6.1 151.9 1.6 119.8 3.4 48.4 0.5 20.8 4.2 127.2 0

1304.7 1.8 76.2 1.2 1228.5 1.8 90 6.6 234.4 1 54 150 30.4 32.6 -0.2 102 3.3 296.7 2.3 155.6 2.4 122 1.8 46.1 -4.7 21 1.2 128.1 0.7

1300.8 -0.3 73.8 -3.2 1227 -0.1 83.9 -6.8 232.7 -0.7 54.2 149.6 28.9 32.3 -0.9 100.9 -1.1 294.1 -0.9 162.1 4.2 122.1 0.1 46.9 1.6 21.1 0.7 130.9 2.2

1282.3 -1.4 70.7 -4.1 1211.5 -1.3 76.6 -8.6 231 -0.8 53.7 147.8 29.3 30.8 -4.8 100.4 -0.5 281.6 -4.2 165.9 2.4 123.2 0.9 47.4 1 22.3 5.6 132.3 1

1240.7 -3.2 63.6 -10 1177.1 -2.8 68.3 -10.9 226.1 -2.1 52 144.2 28.4 28.9 -6.1 99.2 -1.2 261.3 -7.2 168.1 1.3 122.8 -0.3 48.6 2.6 22.3 0 131.6 -0.6

1233 -0.6 60.1 -5.6 1172.9 -0.4 64.4 -5.7 228.3 1 51.1 146.6 27.8 27.6 -4.5 98.2 -1 256.3 -1.9 173 2.9 122.3 -0.4 49 0.9 22.6 1.2 131.3 -0.2

1258.8 2.1 60.8 1.1 1198 2.1 64.3 -0.2 228.5 0.1 51.5 143.9 28.2 28.5 3.3 97.4 -0.8 277.4 8.2 178.7 3.3 121.1 -1 48.5 -1 22.2 -1.9 131.4 0.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1182.2 -0.3 82.2 -6 1100 0.2 63.8 -0.3 230.4 -3.6 54.6 141.9 33.9 38.9 -2 91.6 0.8 236.6 1.9 137.2 0.1 110.5 2.3 44.4 1.1 18.8 -1.4 127.6 3.3

1176.1 -0.5 78 -5.1 1098.2 -0.2 65.7 3 226.3 -1.8 53.3 140.9 32.1 35.8 -7.9 91.8 0.2 232.9 -1.6 140.2 2.2 111.8 1.1 47 5.7 19 0.7 127.7 0.1

1183.3 0.6 74 -5.1 1109.4 1 68.2 3.7 219.9 -2.8 50.4 138.8 30.7 34.6 -3.5 93.2 1.5 243.5 4.5 144.8 3.3 112.2 0.4 46.9 -0.1 19.5 2.8 126.6 -0.8

1236.4 4.5 74.6 0.8 1161.8 4.7 75.3 10.4 224.8 2.3 50.9 142.3 31.7 32.9 -4.8 94.8 1.7 273.4 12.3 149.5 3.2 115.8 3.2 48.2 2.7 19.9 2.2 127.2 0.4

77330.4 80045.3 83083.1 86835.3 91689.5 95372.3 95175.6 2448.9 2490.7 2533.7 2589.7 2648.7 2696.4 2727.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 2.2 2.3 1.8 1.2 1210.6 1223 1226.3 1258.5 1287.4 1316.1 1341.7 0.9 1 0.3 2.6 2.3 2.2 1.9 4.3 5.6 5.3 4.5 3.8 3.4 4.2 21762 23639 27283 27279 32762 22881 11541 16438 18032 20013 22068 27605 19469 8513 5324 5608 7270 5211 5158 3412 3028

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2008

94223 89301.5 89327.4 91913.8 2756.8 2779.7 2806.1 2837.4 1.1 0.8 0.9 1.1 1355 1360.9 1367.8 1380.1 1 0.4 0.5 0.9 6.1 8.3 8.8 8.4 8494 4948 9140 14645 5436 3865 8147 12987 3059 1083 992 1659

I n d u s t r y L o ca t i o n Q u o t ie n t

Explanation and Interpretation This technique compares the local economy to a reference economy; in this case, the local economy is the chosen MSA, and the reference economy is the state of Florida. An Industry Location Quotient (LQ) is calculated to determine if the local economy has a greater share of each industryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s employment than the reference economy. The LQ helps to identify specializations that exist in the local economy. There are only three possible outcomes: 1. An LQ greater than one 2. An LQ equal to one and 3. An LQ less than one. An LQ that is greater than one means that the share of local employment in that particular industry is greater than the reference economy employment share in that same industry. This implies that some of the goods or services produced by that industry are exported for consumption elsewhere. An LQ of one means that local demand is met by the local industry. No goods/services are imported or exported from the local area in that industry. The share of local employment in that industry is equal to the share for that industry in the reference economy. An LQ less than one implies that the industry is not meeting local demand for that good or service, and in order to meet demand, that area must import that good or service. This also means that the share of local employment in that industry is less than the share of employment in that industry for the reference economy.

C a l cu l a t i o n An industry location quotient is a calculated ratio of two ratios. LQ = ((Local employment in industry A in year T / Total local employment in year T) / (Reference economy employment in industry A in year T) / (Total reference employment in year T)) For example: Orlando MSA employment for Information is 27,400 Total Orlando MSA nonagricultural employment is 1,104,100 Florida employment for Information is 169,800 Total Florida nonagricultural employment is 8,247,000 LQ = ((27,400 / 1,104,100) / (169,800 / 8,247,000)) = 1.2039 Source: Florida Regional Economic Database, Current Employment Statistics, December 2006

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

In Appeciation

The UCF College of Business Administration would like to thank Alan C. Charron, ‘84, for his generous gift to the Institute for Economic Competitiveness. His support enables the Institute to publish this forecast and will help fund future activities and research. Charron graduated in 1984 with a degree in finance. He is president of Real Property Specialists, Inc., located in Orlando, Florida. Founded in 1992, Real Property Specialists, Inc., is a fullservice brokerage company that has built a reputation of providing highly personalized service while being responsive and flexible to its clients' individual needs. They offer a range of commercial real estate services in the Central Florida area including brokerage, appraisal, development, property management and tenant representation. Real Property Specialists, Inc., has set a new standard of excellence in client service by providing these key advantages over the competition:

Responsiveness. You work directly with a decision

maker who has the flexibility to immediately attend to your needs.

Consistency. We are a unified firm employing team-

members who are committed to the success of our clients. We pride ourselves on our ability to maintain a dedicated, professional staff that is able to build long-term, comfortable and prosperous relationships with our clients.

Accountability. At Real Property Specialists, our client is the real "Boss." We are accountable to no one other than the client. No company policy interferes with our ability to serve the individual needs of each client. Experience. The staff at Real Property Specialists is

highly qualified, with most associates having more than a decade of experience in the industry. Our personal portfolio of shopping centers gives us first-hand knowledge of what is important when leasing, managing or selling a property.

Appraisers • Brokers • Consultants 6700 Conroy-Windermere Road, Suite 230 | Orlando, FL 32835 407.291.9000 | www.realpropertyspecialists.com

Director, Institute for Economic Competitiveness. Ph.D., Pennsylvania State University 1996; M.A., Pennsylvania State University 1994; B.S., Allegheny College 1989.

Sea n M . S n ait h , P h . D .

We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness:

Sean Snaith is Director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness in the College of Business Administration at the University of Central Florida. Dr. Snaith received his B.S. in Economics from Allegheny College and his M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from Pennsylvania State University. He has taught at Penn State, the American University in Cairo, the University of North Dakota and the University of the Pacific. While at the University of North Dakota, he served as the Director of the Bureau of Business and Economic Research and as Director of the Business Forecasting Center at the University of the Pacific. Snaith also served with International Planning and Research, a Boston area consulting firm, where his work included forecasting, market sizing, economic analyses, and econometric modeling for a variety of clients including IBM, Dell, Compaq, and HewlettPackard. Snaith is a director of the Association of University Business of Economic Research, a member of the National Association of Business Economics, and the American Economics Association. He is also a member of the Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast Panel, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Survey of Professional Forecasters, Livingston Survey, Bloomberg U.S. Economic Indicator Survey and USA Todayâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Quarterly Survey of Top Economists. He is frequently quoted in the media and has published articles on a variety of topics including exchange rate modeling, predicting educational outcomes, the economics of information technology, and telemedicine. For more information Sean Snaith, Director Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida P.O. Box 161400 Orlando, FL 32816 PH: 407.823.1451 FAX: 407.823.1454 EMAIL: ssnaith@bus.ucf.edu www.iec.ucf.edu

U n i v e r s it y o f C e n t r al F l o r ida College of Business Administration Institute for Economic Competitiveness P. O . B o x 1 6 1 4 0 0 , O r l a n d o , F l o r i d a 3 2 8 1 6 PH 407.823.1453

FAX 407.823.1454

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