Florida & Metro December 2009

Florida & Metro Forecast 2009-2013

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

Published December 2009

Message From D ea n T h o ma s L . K e o n It is hard to believe that it is 2010! It seems like just yesterday we were entering the new Millennium and worrying about Y2K. Where has the time gone?

A b o ut U n i v e r s it y o f C e n t r al F l o r ida ( U C F ) T h e Un i ve r s i t y o f C e n t r a l Fl o r i d a i s a public, multi-campus, metropolitan r e s e a r c h u n i v e r s i t y, d e d i c a t e d t o serving its surrounding communities

The state of Florida certainly has had some interesting experiences during the past several years. At the start of the decade, we were in the spotlight with our “hanging chads” and demands for a recount.

with their diverse and expanding populations, technological corridors, and international partners. The mission of the university is to offer high-quality undergraduate and graduate education, student development, and continuing education; to conduct research and creative activities; and to provide services that enhance the intellectual, cultural, environmental, and economic development of the metropolitan region, address national and international issues in key areas, establish UCF as a major presence, and contribute to the global

Fast forward to the present, and as this year comes to a close, we are still counting. Only this time, we are counting the number of foreclosed homes and the amount of people who have lost their jobs. And, for the first time, we are counting the number of people who are starting to leave Florida and move to another state.

It appears Florida may be one of the last to come out of the recession. When we do recover, our state may be a little different. Hopefully, our politicians, banks and other businesses have learned many lessons this past year. We have all had to learn to do more with less.

c o m m u n i t y.

A b o ut t h e C o lle g e o f B u s i n e s s A dmi n i s t r ati o n The College of Business Administration a d v a n c e s t h e u n i v e r s i t y ’s m i s s i o n and goals in providing intellectual leadership through research, teaching, and service. The college is striving to enhance graduate programs, while maintaining the strong undergraduate base. The college delivers research and quality business education programs at the undergraduate, masters, doctoral, and executive levels to citizens of the state of Florida and to select clientele n a t i o n a l l y a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y.

Hopefully, it won’t be long until Florida can thrive again. It will be nice when the only numbers we are counting are the percentage of new jobs, new residents and new home sales.

Happy New Year and I look forward to addressing you again in 2010!

n Thomas L . Keo Sincerely,

Thomas L. Keon Dean

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

F lo r i da F o r e c a s t 2010 - 2013 December 2009 Report

Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Barbie Barontini, Editor Elaine Vogt, Administrative Assistant Laura Burkstrand, Researcher Erin Garlow, Researcher Cecilia Chirinos, Researcher McGregor Love, Researcher Evgenia Volkonitskaya, Researcher Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright Š 2009 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved.

This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitiveness’ judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.

TABLE OF CONTENTS Florida Highlights and Summary........................ 5-11 Florida Forecast Tables...................................... 12-17

Tab l e o f c o n te n t s

Florida Forecast Charts...................................... 19-26 Florida News Summaries....................................... 27 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach.......... 29-33 Gainesville......................................................... 34-38 Jacksonville....................................................... 39-43 Lakeland............................................................ 44-48 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach............... 49-53 Naples-Marco Island......................................... 54-58 Ocala................................................................. 59-63 Orlando-Kissimmee.......................................... 64-68 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville......................... 69-73 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent.............................. 74-78 Tallahassee........................................................ 79-83 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater.................... 84-88 Industry Location Quotient..................................... 89

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y

H i g h l i g ht s o f the F l o r i d a F o r eca s t 2010 -2013 • 2010 begins just as 2009 ended, with Florida in a recession, another wave of job losses, and unemployment on the rise.

• 2010, however, will end on a different note, with a slowly expanding economy, tepid job growth, and the start of an extended period of slowly declining unemployment rates.

• Payroll employment in Florida will have declined by 800,000 jobs from the 1st quarter of 2007 through the 1st quarter of 2010. Finally, job growth feebly reappears in the 2nd quarter of 2010.

Year-over-year job growth remains negative until the 4th quarter of 2010.

• Payroll job growth year-over-year is expected to average 2.3% in 2011, 3.3% in 2012, and 2.9% in 2013. It will be 2014 before payroll employment recovers to its pre-recession levels.

• Vultures will continue to dine on Florida’s housing carrion, but they will not have the appetite to consume the entire cornucopia the state has to offer.

• 2010 unfortunately promises to be another challenging year for the housing market. A recovering, but still feeble economy, credit conditions that will remain tight, and a large shadow inventory all point to a doggedly persistent surplus of housing.

• Unemployment rates, already in double digits, will continue to slowly climb in 2010, with average unemployment peaking at 11.9%. Unemployment will stay above 10% through the 1st quarter of 2012, and will then begin a painfully slow decline from its peak.

• Unemployment will still be stubbornly high by the end of 2013, averaging 8.3% in the 4th quarter.

• The sectors forecasted to have the strongest growth during 2010-2013 are Professional and Business Services (4.7%) Trade, Transportation, and Utilities (2.5%) and Education and Health Services (1.9%).

• Florida’s population is expected to decline again in 2009, and will remain flat in the first half of 2010, before in-migration picks up and population growth slowly begins to climb to 1.5% in 2013.

• Florida’s housing construction sector bottomed out in 2009. Housing starts will begin to climb over the next several years. In 2013, housing starts will recover to 2001 levels, rising gradually to 171,000 starts.

• After two years of contracting, Real Gross State Product (GSP) will slowly expand in 2010, accelerate to 4.2% in 2012, and ease to 3.3% in 2013. The 2010-2013 average growth rate will be 3.1%.

• Personal income growth contracted sharply in 2009, but growth begins to accelerate in 2010 to 1.6%. In 2011-2013, personal income growth will average 5.6% and will peak at 6.3% in 2012.

• During 2010-2013, retail sales will steadily accelerate after a weak first half of 2010. They will grow at an average pace of 5.6% as consumer spending finally returns.

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F l o r i d a Su m m a r y

N o thi n g Ne w U n d e r the Su n ( s hi n e ) State a s We B e g i n 2 0 1 0

Flo r i da’ s Eco n o m y

…Yet E v e r y thi n g ’ s C ha n g e d The New Year begins not with a bang, but with a whimper. That moaning comes from a recession in its death throes, but also from a labor market that continues to worsen. Essentially, 2010 begins just as 2009 ended—with the economy in the dumps and the state facing the prospect of a long, hard road ahead on its economic recovery.

Florida’s short-term recovery is made more difficult by the temporary decline in population. Although this fall in population should begin to reverse itself in 2010 as population growth recovers, the state will see a lower rate of population growth than what has historically been the case. As I have noted in previous forecasts, the declining population growth rate is a process that has been playing itself out over the past three decades. It reflects the rising cost of living in Florida that has accompanied the state’s economic growth in the same period.

The new lower rates of population growth are a game-changer for Florida. They will have an impact on everything from how we finance state and local governments, to how we position ourselves for Florida’s economic future.

Strong population growth can cover a multitude of sins. In Florida, it did just that by allowing a flawed tax structure to succeed, and to grow the state’s economy almost by default. As more and more people moved to Florida, the size of the economy grew. The new Floridians needed housing, and the construction industry flourished. They also needed all of the goods and services that come with a household purchase, and thus the economic growth spread across all sectors. Florida could kick back and watch its economy grow without doing much heavy lifting.

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Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

All this economic activity generated sales tax, property tax, and other forms of government revenue. As property values marched higher, and the construction boom set in, the government found that its cup runneth over. Changes to the tax structure took place that pushed more of the burden of paying taxes from long-time residents of Florida, to the thousands of new Floridians pouring into the state each month.

The state was succeeding despite itself.

Then, the housing boom went bust, and population not only stopping robustly growing, it actually started to decline. Florida’s economy took a wild swing from the housing-fueled mania it had been riding for several years, to a deep recession and three straight years of job losses. Government at the state and local levels, as well as school districts, found themselves with massive budget shortfalls.

The old model for economic growth was predicated on strong population growth. Gaudy rates of population growth will no longer be par for the course in Florida, and thus the model for economic development must evolve, as must the tax structure.

Growing the economy will no longer be cheap; it will require significant investment by government into Florida’s infrastructure, and into its labor force (via research and education).

It will take strong, visionary leadership to ensure that Florida can compete in this new environment, because very difficult choices lay ahead. You see, a funny thing happened on the way to this recovery.

Everything changed.

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y

Florida’s Housing Market

Florida Association of Realtors (FAR), and cover the housing market through October 2009. Sales (Figure 1) have continued to rebound nicely, but median prices (Figure 2) are still searching for a firm bottom to their precipitous plunge.

Sales continue to rise, but prices are still languishing We believe that in 2009, housing starts hit their nadir in Florida. As levels slowly start to climb in 2010, it will come as a small bit of good news, after what have been several dismal years. Starts, while rising, will be just a fraction of what they were previously—a serious weakening of what was once the heart of Florida’s economy.

Mortgage rates remain at historic lows; unfortunately, the benefit of these low-cost funds escapes those who are unable to get loans.

Refinancing is a near impossibility for those who have seen their home’s value plummet over the past several years, and many new mortgage borrowers are also facing difficult credit conditions. The low end of the housing spectrum is benefitting from these low rates, available credit, and the extension of the firsttime home buyers’ credit.

Realtor Sales

25000

Moving Average

20000 15000 10000 5000

Data Source: Florida Association of Realtors 0

09 nJa 08 nJa 07 nJa 06 nJa 05 nJa 04 nJa 03 nJa 02 nJa 01 nJa 00 nJa 99 nJa 98 nJa 97 nJa 96 nJa 95 n4 Year

Figure 3. Median Housing Prices Figure 2. Median Housing Prices FAR Data

Florida

Florida

Single Family, ExisƟng Homes

Single Family, Existing Homes $300,000.00 Median Sales Price

$250,000.00

Moving Average

$200,000.00 $150,000.00 $100,000.00 $50,000.00

Data Source: Florida Association of Realtors $0.00

09 nJa 08 nJa 07 nJa 06 nJa 05 nJa 04 nJa 03 n02

01

00

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Figures 1 and 2 display data from the housing market for existing homes, as released by the

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9 n-

That shadow inventory, comprised of foreclosed homes that banks are holding rather than putting immediately on the market, will eventually find its way back onto the market. This flow will make it more difficult for prices to stabilize.

Florida Single Family, Existing Homes

Single Family, Existing Homes

Ja

2010, unfortunately, promises to be yet another challenging year for the housing market. A recovering, but still feeble economy, credit conditions that will remain tight, and a large shadow inventory all point to a doggedly persistent surplus of housing.

2. Housing Sales Figure 1.Figure Housing Sales FAR Data Florida

Ja

Once you get outside of the first home segment of the housing market, things remain fairly grim.

Credit is still exceedingly tight for the middleand high-end markets. As a result, these market segments continue to stagnate. Couple tight credit conditions with high unemployment and Florida’s population stagnation, and you end up with a housing sector that is still ailing.

Introductory microeconomics tells us that any market in which there exists a surplus will see downward pressure on prices as the market “feels” its way toward a new equilibrium–a process known in the economics business as tatonnement.

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F l o r i d a Su m m a r y

Tatonnement is a French word that is literally translated into “groping.” In the market context, it is a description of the trial-and-error process by which prices move toward equilibrium. However, this process of finding equilibrium in the housing market is going to feel more like molestation to home owners in Florida.

Prices will likely continue to fall, as housing inventories remain elevated across the state, and many buyers continue to face difficulty obtaining loans. The steep drop in prices has stimulated sales however. The 12-month moving average (the smoother of the two lines plotted in Figure 1) of existing home sales in Florida has been rising for 13 months straight, and continues to be pulled up by monthly sales that are higher than that moving average.

Prices have fallen substantially, as Figure 2 clearly displays. In many parts of the state, builders tell me that prices have fallen below replacement costs.

This is clearly a phenomenon that is short-run in nature and reflects the large number of distressed properties, foreclosures, and short sales.

Prices are trying to find a bottom, and the 12month moving average of the median sales prices continues to fall. In October, that median price fell by $1,700, and now stands at $140,300. It is too soon to declare this as the low point for prices, but we appear to be in the neighborhood of a bottom.

Outlook for Florida 2010-2013 Gross State Product Welcome Back Economic Growth, We Really Missed You Real Gross State Product (GSP) in Florida, the state-level analogue to real GDP, will finally see an annual increase again in 2010. The shape of the recovery in Florida will also resemble the “Gravy Boat” path of the national economy. Growth will be muted in the first year to year and a half, and 8

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

will accelerate slowly in this expansion. From 2010, real GSP growth in Florida will average just 1.8%.

Things will begin to accelerate in 2011.

Real GSP growth will accelerate in the latter half of 2011, and then will rise further to average 4.3% growth in 2012-2013, as the economy begins to produce at full strength once again.

Nominal Gross State Product is expected to reach nearly $870 billion in 2013, as Florida continues closing in on becoming a trillion-dollar economy–a threshold that has been getting pushed further into the future by the long, deep recession and the “gravy boat” recovery. We have now pushed back that date, yet again, to 2017, when we are forecasting GSP to finally break the trillion-dollar mark.

Whether it is today’s economy of nearly ¾ of a trillion dollars, or the trillion dollar economy that Florida will eventually become, the Sunshine State still represents one of the world’s largest economies, despite the trials and tribulations of the past several years.

Personal Income, Retail Sales, and Auto Sales Personal income growth will accelerate as we move through 2010 and 2011. In the last two years of this forecast, we expect personal income growth to average a healthy 6.1%, as the memory of the recession fades away.

Real disposable income growth will continue to be depressed by the floundering economy. Though price deflation and tax cuts temporarily boosted real disposable income growth, a recent surge in prices has taken back a large share of the gains in 2009.

A continued worsening of Florida’s labor markets, and an unemployment rate expected to peak at 11.9% and remain in double digits until 2012, will weigh on real disposable income growth. However, falling home prices do have a small silver lining, as many Floridians are seeing their property taxes fall substantially. In 2011-2013, with the economy fully emerged from recession, real disposable income will expand at an average pace of 2.9%. There remains

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y

significant uncertainty in the outlook for disposable income, specifically as it relates to future tax rates at both the federal and state level. It is possible that future tax hikes will lead to an even higher chunk of income going to the government than we are currently assuming.

Consumers in Florida have been besieged, much more so than many of their counterparts around the country, by disappearing home equity and faded stock market wealth. Wealth represents future consumption, and therefore affects spending and saving decisions today. With so much wealth destroyed, consumers have cut back on spending, and have been saving (furiously by U.S. consumers’ historical standards), rebuilding nest eggs that may only be 50% of what they once were. This has resulted in a jump in the national saving rate that, for an extended period, was negative, and now has been hovering between 4% and 5%.

The images of consumers lining up outside of retail stores in Florida the night before Black Friday, rushing into the store once it opened, and then leaving a few hours later with overflowing carts, painted a picture that belies the reality of Florida’s consumer. Just off-screen, the cameras didn’t show the empty storefronts in the same strip mall, vacated by retail shops that have failed during the recession.

When the final tally is made, this year will see another horrible holiday shopping season, and like last season, I expect that these disappointing results will be followed by a wave of retail bankruptcies.

Double digit unemployment will weigh on consumer spending, but as the labor market slowly improves, it will help buoy consumer confidence.

Pent-up demand, and a clearer sense that their jobs are safe, will help unlock some of the spending that uncertainty about the future had inhibited.

Retail sales in Florida saw a Cash for Clunkers/“relief rally” boost in the 3rd quarter of 2009, but will decelerate into the New Year. The 1st quarter of 2010 will see retail spending fall again, as the final rise in unemployment impacts the economy and consumers cut back even more. As we get to the

second half of the year, the recovery will be higher profile, the consumer will begin to spend more freely, and retail sales will accelerate.

The recession, credit crunch, volatile energy prices, and a collapsing domestic automotive industry will conspire to bring average new passenger car and truck registrations down overall for a fourth straight year in 2009. After four years of declines, new vehicle registrations did indeed surge in the 3rd quarter of 2009, thanks to the Cash for Clunkers program, but this surge will be short lived. We still believe that total registrations will contract again in the next two quarters. In the 2nd quarter of 2010, registrations will begin to climb once again, but will not reach the Cash for Clunkers/3rd quarter 2009 levels until the 3rd quarter of 2010. That is not saying a whole lot, given that despite the Clunkers boost, registrations were still down 33% from prerecession levels. In 2012 and 2013, a much improved economy will help to drive new vehicle registration growth higher. In 2012, registration levels will hit 1.16 million, putting 2012 levels on par with those recorded in 1998. In 2013, registrations should reach nearly 1.3 million.

Employment Overall payroll employment growth in the state is expected to shrink by -4.8% for 2009, versus a year ago. This comes after contracting at a -3.2% rate in 2008, compared to 2007. National job growth is expected to be -3.8% for 2009, after contracting by -0.4% in 2008, versus 2007.

Job losses in Florida will persist throughout the remainder of 2009, and through the 1st quarter of 2010. Even though payrolls will begin to grow in 2010, the average level of employment in 2010 will still be below the average for 2009. Once payroll growth does take root in 2010, it will slowly gain momentum throughout 2011, a year when job growth is expected to come in at 2.3%. Payroll job growth will reach 3.3% in 2012, before easing to 2.9% in 2013. Despite the acceleration of job growth, it will be 2014 before payroll employment levels return to their pre-recession peak.

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F l o r i d a Su m m a r y

The Construction sector, which has imploded after peaking during the housing boom, will continue to show the painful effects of the pitiful housing market, the credit freeze, and a burgeoning crisis in commercial construction markets. Any job creation from the shovel-ready projects that will (eventually) be funded by the federal economic stimulus plan will help resurrect some jobs in this sector.

The bottom of the residential real estate market will give way to tepid growth in housing starts, but it will not be enough to have a major impact on employment in this sector. Despite the economic stimulus bill, this sector will be the worst-performing sector in the state’s economy on average through 2013, as far as job growth is concerned. Cumulative job losses in the sector have been nothing short of catastrophic. It will be two decades before the construction sector has payroll employment levels back to the pre-recession peaks hit in 2006.

Job growth will not return to the construction sector until the 2nd quarter of 2011. Growth rates are expected to surge to 6.3% in 2012 and 7.0% in 2013, as the commercial sector joins the residential sector in recovery, the full force of the stimulus spending is felt, and the overall economic turnaround is in full swing.

This recession has seen job losses that have transcended virtually all sectors of the economy, and have not spared any socioeconomic strata.

Many white collar job losses are reflected in the performance of the Professional and Business Services sector. Job losses in this sector will exceed 214,000 by the end of the 1st quarter of 2010. Once the economy exits the recession, and after a slow first year of recovery, this sector will once again grow robustly in Florida. In 2010, job growth is expected to turn positive after more than two years of job losses. Job gains accelerate from that point and rise to 8.7% in 2011, 7.6% in 2012, and 5.1% in 2013.

This sector will recover more quickly, and will get back to its pre-recession levels of employment in 2013.

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Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

The Information sector will continue to shed jobs through the middle of 2010, as newspapers continue to struggle amidst the structural changes gripping the industry. Advertising revenues have fallen off dramatically, thanks in large part to the ongoing woes of the automotive industry, as well as several major newspapers and publishing groups that are teetering on the edge of bankruptcy. All of these outlets are still trying to figure out a model that will work in the Internet Age. Advertising via a banner ad on a website simply does not bring in the level of revenue that full page print ads will. Unfortunately, circulation is shrinking, as more and more people get information via the web.

2011 will be the first year of job growth in this sector after nine of the ten prior years featured job losses, including five straight years of job losses leading up to 2011. Job growth will jump to 3.1% in 2011 and more or less stabilizes at 1.8% in 20122013.

The one sector that continued to create jobs during the recession, and that is expected to continue to expand through the end of our forecast horizon, is the Health and Education sector. Throughout 2010-2013, employment in this sector is expected to expand at an average rate of 1.9%. The average growth rate for overall payroll employment during the same time frame is expected to be 1.6%.

It is still difficult to tell exactly how healthcare reform will play itself out in Washington, but clearly the momentum is toward expanding coverage.

Couple that with an aging population in Florida, and it seems clear that demand for health services will remain strong for the foreseeable future. This rising demand will continue to drive job growth in this sector.

Manufacturing will continue to contract in Florida through the 3rd quarter of 2010. Globalization and productivity gains in manufacturing have combined to severely reduce employment in this sector. As the Nietzsche quote goes, “What does not kill me, makes me stronger.� This sector will come out of this difficult period leaner than it ever has been, and as competitive as it has been in many years.

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y

We are expecting to see job growth of 2.5% in this sector for the full year in 2011. This will be followed by an even stronger year of job growth in 2012, when manufacturing employment will expand at a rate of 4.9%. For the first time in decades, manufacturing is expected to gain jobs in three consecutive years, as 2013 job growth is expected to be 3.7%.

The problem of underemployment and discouraged workers–those who have given up searching for a job–is substantial, and will be a factor behind the jobless recovery. When adding these workers to the top level unemployment figure, this broader measure of unemployment paints an even more grim picture of labor markets, and is over 17% nationally.

Unemployment Unemployment rates in the state have surged from record low levels that were driven down by the excesses of the housing boom. During the boom years, the growth rate of Florida’s economy was extraordinary, and real GSP growth averaged 5.4% during 2003-2006. The persistent high growth served to drive down the unemployment rate, which averaged just 3.4% in 2006.

Strong growth had the effect of ratcheting down the unemployment rate, and when that growth gave way to a strong recession, the unemployment rate began to soar. Florida’s unemployment rate, once more than a full percentage point below the historically low national unemployment rate, now has risen above the double digit rate of national unemployment.

Both will peak in 2010. After the peak, Florida’s unemployment rate will decline slowly, and remain above the national unemployment rate, as the “gravy boat” recovery plays itself out. Tepid growth will help to whittle down unemployment.

How high will unemployment get? We are expecting unemployment to rise to 11.9% in the 1st quarter of 2010, and remain above 10% until the 2nd quarter of 2012. Thereafter, unemployment will begin a slow decline through the end of 2013. By the end of that year unemployment will still be uncomfortably high at 8.3%.

There is no reason to believe that there will be a rapid reversal in the unemployment rate following its peak without a robust recovery to drive it down. As we saw during the boom, strong growth can quickly and dramatically ratchet down the unemployment rate, but weak growth can only slowly erode high unemployment.

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F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch Year ago)

508.4 4.3 2.0 492.2 2.9 3.8 441.7 5.2 3.3 522.7 5.1 497.3 2.6

531.2 4.5 3.5 504.0 2.4 2.5 459.0 3.9 2.5 559.0 6.9 520.4 4.6

582.8 9.7 6.0 538.8 6.9 10.1 487.9 6.3 3.4 607.3 8.6 548.6 5.4

633.2 8.7 5.5 568.4 5.5 4.3 506.9 3.9 1.3 670.0 10.3 589.3 7.4

Personal Income and GSP 690.3 713.5 719.7 697.8 9.0 3.4 0.9 -3.0 7.5 5.6 2.9 -2.2 603.1 607.2 592.6 589.3 6.1 0.7 -2.4 -0.6 7.6 -4.2 0.1 -4.5 537.3 537.5 531.1 542.4 6.0 0.1 -1.2 2.1 4.0 2.2 0.5 0.4 721.4 741.9 744.1 728.0 7.7 2.8 0.3 -2.2 613.6 613.4 603.5 583.3 4.1 0.0 -1.6 -3.3

709.2 1.6 2.1 639.6 8.7 3.1 586.2 8.2 0.3 747.6 2.7 592.7 1.6

741.9 4.6 4.2 659.4 3.1 6.2 597.5 1.9 1.5 782.1 4.6 611.0 3.1

788.8 6.3 5.3 691.9 4.9 5.3 620.9 3.9 3.0 827.3 5.8 636.9 4.2

835.8 6.0 5.2 723.9 4.6 5.2 638.6 2.9 2.0 868.3 5.0 657.8 3.3

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

0.5 1.6 5.7 5.8

1.6 1.2 5.3 6.0

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) 2.7 3.8 3.5 1.5 -0.7 -4.9 -2.6 1.4 2.1 2.9 3.0 2.2 1.6 -0.4 -1.3 0.7 4.7 3.8 3.4 4.1 6.2 10.5 11.7 10.8 5.5 5.1 4.6 4.6 5.8 9.3 10.8 10.0

2.5 1.3 9.5 8.9

2.8 1.8 8.5 8.1

2.9 3.3 0.0 6.3 4.9 0.5 7.0 6.3 4.2 2.2 3.0 7.6 2.1 1.5 1.8 -1.3 1.6

2.3 2.9 -0.2 7.0 3.7 0.2 5.3 4.7 3.5 2.1 1.8 5.1 1.5 2.0 1.9 -0.5 2.4

Total nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't.

State & Local Gov't.

Population (thous.) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous.) (%Ch Year ago) Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous.)

Housing Starts Single Family (thous.)

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous.) (%Ch Year ago)

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2007

2008

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) -1.1 0.1 -10.3 1.1 -5.8 -3.6 -7.0 -2.8 -0.2 -1.2 1.2 0.2 2.7 0.4 -5.7 0.4 1.7

-0.3 1.1 -1.2 3.8 -4.2 -3.3 -4.7 -3.2 0.5 -0.2 2.2 1.5 3.7 1.8 -3.7 3.4 1.1

1.1 3.4 0.2 9.4 0.2 -2.1 1.4 1.6 3.4 2.7 3.8 5.8 3.0 4.4 -2.1 0.4 1.4

1.7 4.0 -0.8 11.4 1.2 -1.8 2.6 3.8 4.1 4.1 5.0 7.1 2.5 2.7 0.2 1.5 1.4

1.8 2.6 -6.5 7.2 0.2 -2.0 1.3 1.5 2.9 2.0 3.2 4.2 2.7 1.5 -0.9 -0.8 2.0

1.1 0.2 1.6 -8.8 -4.2 -1.5 -5.4 0.1 1.5 0.5 -1.0 0.7 3.1 2.0 -0.3 0.2 2.4

-0.4 -3.2 -5.2 -17.1 -6.6 -6.3 -6.8 -2.8 -2.4 -2.9 -3.7 -5.3 2.3 -1.4 -3.5 1.3 0.4

-3.8 -4.8 -3.5 -16.2 -10.6 -10.5 -10.6 -5.2 -3.3 -6.1 -4.7 -7.7 0.9 -3.5 -7.0 -0.4 -0.7

-1.5 -2.1 -3.8 -9.5 -4.0 -4.3 -3.8 -4.1 -2.2 -3.9 -4.3 -2.6 1.3 0.2 -5.8 3.9 -1.2

2.0 2.3 -0.4 -0.9 2.5 -1.0 4.2 3.1 1.7 2.3 0.4 8.7 2.8 0.8 3.1 -4.5 -0.5

Population and Migration 16,686.2 16,989.6 17,362.5 17,737.0 18,032.9 18,212.3 18,258.1 18,236.2 18,319.7 18,393.0 18,578.8 18,865.1 1.9 1.8 2.2 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.3 -0.1 0.5 0.4 1.0 1.5 64.8 71.9 83.8 72.9 44.7 22.7 19.7 -16.8 -22.8 15.3 47.8 62.6 -1.7 12.2 19.2 -12.9 -41.0 -45.9 -5.1 -163.2 -153.3 162.1 235.9 38.2 182.7 133.6 49.1

207.7 159.9 47.9

238.8 183.1 55.6

272.9 211.6 61.3

204.8 156.3 48.5

Housing 101.6 62.2 74.8 42.0 26.8 20.2

35.3 28.2 7.1

54.9 50.9 4.1

98.1 91.0 7.1

142.3 122.4 20.0

166.0 133.9 32.1

1.7

2.6

3.0

4.5

4.1

Consumer Prices 3.3 4.1

-0.1

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.6

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida*

2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch Year ago)

696.2 -2.6 -2.0 630.5 6.9 -2.5 581.3 9.9 0.1 735.3 0.3 587.3 -0.7

698.2 -0.3 0.7 632.2 9.1 1.0 579.1 8.8 -0.4 737.7 1.8 587.8 1.1

705.5 0.9 1.6 637.9 10.6 3.5 584.7 10.2 -0.7 743.8 2.9 590.7 1.8

713.7 2.6 2.8 642.8 12.7 3.5 589.6 12.2 1.0 751.3 3.0 594.6 1.8

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

-6.7 -2.4 11.6 10.4

-4.5 -1.9 11.9 10.9

-3.3 -1.8 11.8 10.8

-2.2 -1.4 11.6 10.7

-4.1 -4.4 -4.7 -13.1 -11.0 -9.3 -11.7 -3.4 -3.2 -6.6 -5.5 -7.0 0.0 -1.9 -6.2 -1.2 -0.7

735.9 4.3 4.0 655.4 2.8 6.1 593.8 1.6 1.2 776.0 4.3 607.4 2.8

Personal Income and GSP 746.5 758.1 770.2 4.6 5.4 6.0 4.2 4.6 5.0 662.3 670.3 678.6 3.0 3.8 4.4 6.6 6.5 6.2 600.1 607.6 610.5 1.8 2.8 3.7 1.5 2.0 2.9 787.2 798.8 810.7 4.8 5.4 5.8 613.8 620.8 627.2 3.2 3.9 4.2

783.1 6.4 5.4 688.0 5.0 5.4 618.4 4.1 3.2 821.8 5.9 633.9 4.4

795.3 6.5 5.5 696.5 5.2 5.0 624.6 4.1 3.1 833.0 5.8 640.3 4.3

806.5 6.4 5.5 704.3 5.1 4.8 630.1 3.7 2.8 843.7 5.6 646.0 4.1

818.0 6.2 5.4 712.0 4.9 4.8 630.9 3.3 2.4 853.7 5.3 650.8 3.8

829 6 5 719 4 5 634 2 1 863 5 655 3

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) -0.3 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.8 -0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.6 11.6 11.3 11.0 10.6 10.3 10.0 9.7 9.3 9.0 10.6 10.4 10.2 9.8 9.6 9.3 9.0 8.8 8.5

3.0 1.7 8.8 8.3

2 1 8 8

-3.1 -3.8 -4.6 -9.8 -8.1 -6.9 -8.7 -5.3 -2.5 -6.8 -5.2 -5.6 -0.3 -2.2 -6.4 0.7 -1.0

-1.8 -2.6 -4.5 -9.6 -4.9 -4.6 -5.1 -4.6 -2.7 -5.9 -4.3 -4.8 1.3 0.5 -8.3 9.7 -0.6

-1.0 -1.6 -4.1 -10.5 -2.3 -3.0 -2.0 -3.6 -1.8 -3.1 -3.9 -1.4 2.1 0.9 -5.8 3.7 -1.5

2.6 3.1 0.1 7.2 4.2 0.3 5.9 5.2 3.6 1.8 2.4 5.5 1.5 2.5 1.8 -0.7 2.5

2 3 -0 7 4 0 5 4 3 2 2 5 1 2 1 -0 2

0.1 -0.3 -2.3 -7.9 -0.5 -2.7 0.6 -2.9 -1.7 0.3 -3.6 1.3 2.2 1.4 -2.8 1.6 -1.5

1.2 1.3 -0.9 -5.4 0.6 -2.3 2.1 -0.6 -1.1 2.6 -2.5 6.8 2.7 2.0 0.4 -1.0 -1.3

1.7 2.0 -0.4 -2.1 1.9 -1.2 3.4 2.4 1.0 2.5 -0.5 8.8 3.1 1.0 4.4 -9.7 -0.9

2.3 2.6 -0.2 0.9 3.2 -0.6 5.1 4.5 2.7 2.0 1.6 9.4 2.8 0.1 4.6 -4.9 -0.1

2.7 3.1 -0.1 2.9 4.2 0.0 6.2 6.2 4.4 2.1 3.1 9.8 2.8 0.0 3.0 -2.5 0.4

2.9 3.3 -0.2 4.9 4.8 0.5 6.8 6.9 5.1 1.9 3.3 9.2 2.6 0.5 2.4 -1.8 0.9

2.9 3.4 0.1 6.3 5.3 0.6 7.5 6.5 4.5 2.5 3.1 8.1 2.2 1.1 1.7 -1.3 1.4

2.9 3.3 0.1 6.8 5.2 0.6 7.2 6.1 3.8 2.4 3.0 7.1 1.8 1.9 1.3 -1.1 1.8

2.8 3.2 0.0 6.9 4.6 0.4 6.4 5.5 3.6 1.9 2.8 5.9 1.7 2.5 1.7 -0.8 2.2

Population and Migration

18,376.9 18,329.3 18,308.3 18,309.7 18,331.5 18,353.5 18,375.3 18,404.0 18,439.4 18,481.6 18,543.9 18,610.3 18,679.3 18,751.2 18,825

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous.)

Housing Starts Single Family (thous.)

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous.) (%Ch Year ago)

726.9 4.1 3.9 649.7 2.8 5.5 588.7 1.7 1.2 766.4 3.9 601.9 2.4

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago)

Total nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't.

State & Local Gov't.

Population (thous.) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous.) (%Ch Year ago)

719.4 3.3 3.4 645.6 2.4 4.1 591.3 1.7 1.3 757.6 3.0 597.7 1.8

1.0 -140.0 -737.4

0.7 -59.0 -350.1

0.7 -32.5 -228.9

0.7 -10.0 -141.4

-0.2 10.2 107.3

0.1 10.4 117.6

0.4 10.2 131.4

0.5 16.9 268.7

0.6 23.5 130.7

0.7 30.2 190.4

0.9 50.2 392.2

1.1 54.1 220.7

1.3 56.5 140.2

1.5 59.2 96.0

1 61 22

38.1 34.7 3.4

45.3 41.7 3.6

52.5 48.9 3.6

57.3 52.6 4.7

64.6 60.3 4.4

76.1 71.7 4.3

Housing 90.6 85.8 4.8

106.5 98.4 8.0

119.1 108.0 11.1

128.7 113.9 14.8

138.2 120.5 17.7

147.9 126.1 21.8

154.5 128.9 25.6

159.4 130.6 28.9

164 133 31

2.2

2.6

2.3

1.7

0.9

Consumer Prices 1.6 1.9 2.0

2.0

2.0

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.6

1

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

13

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s Table 3. Employment Quarterly* 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7,286.9 7,213.0 7,214.2 7,236.7 7,262.7 7,304.7 7,360.0 7,423.8 7,489.6 7,548.3 7,610.5 7,670.0 7,726.6 7,779.9 7,835.1 7,885.1 7,934.4

Manufacturing

322.1

321.1

318.9

318.6

320.6

323.1

324.9

328.9

334.1

338.6

342.1

345.9

349.3

352.9

355.9

358.1

360.2

Durable Goods

216.0

215.7

214.6

214.9

217.3

220.1

221.9

225.8

230.8

235.1

238.5

242.1

245.6

249.0

252.1

254.3

256.3

8.6

8.7

8.8

8.9

9.1

9.3

9.6

9.9

10.3

10.6

10.8

10.9

11.1

11.2

11.3

11.4

11.4

44.9

45.9

47.5

47.7

48.2

47.9

47.0

46.5

46.5

45.9

45.4

45.6

45.5

45.8

45.8

45.8

46.2

Wood Products Computer & Electronics Transportation Equipment Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

38.4

37.9

37.5

37.6

38.2

38.7

39.1

39.7

40.6

41.5

42.3

43.0

43.7

44.3

44.9

45.2

45.5

106.1

105.4

104.3

103.7

103.3

103.0

103.0

103.1

103.3

103.5

103.6

103.7

103.7

103.8

103.8

103.8

103.8

27.1

26.9

26.9

26.8

26.8

26.7

26.7

26.7

26.7

26.7

26.8

26.8

26.8

26.7

26.7

26.7

26.7

6,964.8 6,891.9 6,895.4 6,918.0 6,942.1 6,981.5 7,035.0 7,094.9 7,155.5 7,209.7 7,268.4 7,324.1 7,377.3 7,427.1 7,479.2 7,527.0 7,574.2 6.0

6.0

5.9

5.9

5.9

5.9

5.9

5.9

5.9

5.9

5.9

5.9

5.9

5.9

5.9

5.9

5.9 446.9

Construction

413.6

401.1

389.3

382.6

381.1

379.3

381.3

386.0

392.1

398.1

405.4

412.3

419.3

426.6

434.4

441.1

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

227.5

224.1

221.2

220.7

221.0

222.7

226.5

230.6

234.7

238.1

241.2

244.7

247.6

250.5

253.1

255.8

258.3

Wholesale Trade

333.0

331.7

329.3

328.8

327.2

327.9

332.5

337.6

341.6

344.5

347.4

350.5

353.8

357.0

359.9

362.8

364.9

Retail Trade

897.7

885.1

885.9

893.9

900.0

907.7

908.0

911.6

919.1

925.3

931.1

933.5

936.9

942.4

949.5

954.6

958.9

Information

141.2

138.2

134.4

135.1

137.2

138.8

140.3

141.2

141.3

142.2

142.8

143.1

143.8

144.8

145.5

146.0

146.3

Prof. & Business Services 1,043.5 1,011.4 1,017.0 1,037.8 1,057.5 1,080.5 1,106.8 1,135.1 1,161.4 1,179.7 1,196.7 1,215.4 1,230.4 1,244.2 1,258.5 1,272.9 1,292.6 Admin. & Support

527.8

503.6

512.7

532.3

547.1

564.4

583.3

605.6

625.7

638.7

650.7

664.0

673.6

681.3

690.3

699.3

713.6

Prof. Sci & Tech

437.3

428.8

425.0

425.8

430.7

436.1

443.2

449.1

454.9

459.8

464.4

469.3

474.4

480.2

485.3

490.2

495.3

Mgmt. of Co. Financial Activities

78.4

78.9

79.4

79.7

79.7

79.9

80.3

80.4

80.8

81.2

81.6

82.0

82.3

82.7

83.0

83.3

83.7

492.0

488.8

482.9

477.2

474.1

476.6

480.8

484.9

488.9

492.3

495.5

499.4

502.5

504.4

505.7

507.5

508.2

Real Estate & Rent

164.7

163.7

162.9

162.6

162.9

164.1

165.4

166.9

168.4

169.6

170.8

172.4

173.4

174.2

175.0

175.8

176.7

Fin. & Insurance

327.3

325.1

320.1

314.6

311.2

312.5

315.3

318.0

320.5

322.7

324.7

327.0

329.1

330.1

330.7

331.7

331.5

Edu. & Health Service

1,058.0 1,059.3 1,065.5 1,076.0 1,081.5 1,087.8 1,098.1 1,106.4 1,111.6 1,116.5 1,122.3 1,126.3 1,130.2 1,133.3 1,138.6 1,143.5 1,147.4

Education Services

135.7

135.4

133.8

133.7

134.0

133.9

133.9

134.0

134.2

134.4

134.5

134.7

134.8

134.9

Health Services

922.3

923.9

931.7

942.3

947.5

953.9

964.2

972.4

977.4

982.1

987.7

991.6

995.3

998.4 1,003.7 1,008.6 1,012.6

Leisure & Hospitality

905.7

900.4

909.0

917.1

918.7

918.2

918.5

917.8

918.5

922.8

929.1

935.4

941.8

946.2

949.6

952.0

955.1

Other Services

328.8

329.6

330.1

331.6

332.7

333.8

334.1

334.3

335.0

335.8

336.4

337.6

338.9

339.7

340.1

340.7

341.4

Government

134.9

134.9

134.9

1,117.7 1,116.3 1,124.6 1,111.2 1,105.2 1,102.2 1,102.2 1,103.4 1,105.4 1,108.6 1,114.6 1,120.0 1,126.1 1,132.1 1,138.5 1,144.1 1,148.4

Federal Gov't.

128.3

130.4

141.8

134.1

130.3

129.0

128.1

127.5

127.0

126.7

126.4

126.1

State & Local Gov't.

989.4

986.0

982.9

977.1

974.9

973.1

974.1

975.9

978.3

981.9

988.2

993.8 1,000.1 1,006.3 1,012.8 1,018.6 1,022.9

*Quarterly at an annual rate

14

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

126.0

125.8

125.7

125.6

125.5

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s Table 4. Employment Annual 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7,169.0 7,250.4 7,499.3 7,800.0 8,002.4 8,018.5 7,761.1 7,391.4 7,331.0

7501.4 7,723.9 7,937.2

Manufacturing

428.0

409.8

410.7

415.5

416.4

399.0

372.6

333.2

317.3

326.1

340.7

352.3

Durable Goods

283.4

270.0

273.8

281.0

284.6

269.2

250.9

224.2

213.5

223.4

237.6

249.0

Wood Products

18.1

17.6

20.3

22.4

21.6

17.0

12.8

9.1

9.1

10.4

11.3

11.7

Computer & Electronics

59.7

53.4

52.5

51.4

50.1

49.2

48.0

46.0

46.4

46.4

46.3

46.8

Transportation Equipment

44.9

43.8

44.4

45.6

45.7

44.6

42.5

40.0

39.2

40.3

42.6

44.5

144.6

139.8

136.9

134.5

131.8

129.8

121.7

108.9

103.9

102.7

103.2

103.4

30.6

30.1

29.1

28.3

27.6

27.7

27.2

27.1

26.9

26.9

26.8

26.8

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

7,512.3 7,427.4 7,354.5 7,259.7 7,151.2 7,074.5 7,024.9 6,964.8 6,891.9 6,895.4 6,918.0 6,942.1 6.5

6.3

6.3

6.3

6.2

6.2

6.1

6.0

6.0

5.9

5.9

5.9

Construction

554.4

523.2

497.8

475.9

444.8

430.8

427.5

413.6

401.1

389.3

382.6

381.1

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

250.9

247.9

241.9

235.6

236.7

232.0

228.9

227.5

224.1

221.2

220.7

221.0

Wholesale Trade

352.4

348.3

347.6

344.1

340.1

338.6

334.8

333.0

331.7

329.3

328.8

327.2

Retail Trade

930.7

928.4

953.7

993.1 1,012.8 1,017.5

988.2

927.8

891.2

911.6

931.7

951.4

Information

172.8

166.3

162.9

163.2

155.6

144.7

136.2

140.4

143.0

145.6

Prof. & Business Services

161.7

161.3

1,004.9 1,020.3 1,079.5 1,155.5 1,203.6 1,211.9 1,147.4 1,058.8 1,030.9 1,121.0 1,205.5 1,267.1

Admin. & Support

557.2

563.6

600.5

646.7

672.8

670.8

610.9

543.1

523.9

594.8

656.8

696.1

Prof. Sci & Tech

376.8

384.9

404.0

431.2

451.5

460.1

454.8

436.2

427.6

445.8

467.0

487.7

70.9

71.8

75.0

77.7

79.4

81.0

81.8

79.5

79.4

80.3

81.8

83.2

Financial Activities

481.1

491.8

510.4

535.8

552.6

547.2

526.9

502.4

480.8

482.8

497.4

506.4

Real Estate & Rent

154.5

157.7

166.5

176.6

182.4

178.1

173.2

167.8

163.0

166.2

171.6

175.4

Fin. & Insurance

326.6

334.1

343.9

359.1

370.2

369.2

353.7

334.6

317.7

316.6

325.9

331.0

Edu. & Health Service

884.9

917.5

944.7

967.8

993.6 1,024.1 1,047.3 1,056.5 1,070.6 1,101.0 1,123.8 1,140.7

Education Services

101.5

110.0

118.7

124.6

128.3

134.1

137.9

136.3

134.2

134.0

134.6

Health Services

783.3

807.5

826.0

843.3

865.3

890.0

909.4

920.2

936.4

967.0

989.2 1,005.8

Leisure & Hospitality

846.4

862.0

899.9

924.3

937.7

956.4

942.9

909.7

911.3

918.2

932.3

950.7

Other Services

315.3

322.3

329.4

334.9

338.0

345.5

340.6

330.0

331.0

334.3

337.2

340.5

Mgmt. of Co.

Government

134.9

1,039.2 1,053.0 1,066.3 1,081.1 1,099.1 1,122.6 1,128.0 1,120.7 1,114.3 1,103.3 1,117.3 1,140.8

Federal Gov't.

122.2

126.3

126.8

128.7

127.7

128.0

129.6

129.1

134.1

127.9

126.3

125.6

State & Local Gov't.

917.0

926.8

939.5

952.4

971.4

994.6

998.4

991.6

980.2

975.4

991.0 1,015.1

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

15

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly*

2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

696.2

698.2

705.5

713.7

719.4

726.9

735.9

746.5

758.1

770.2

783.1

795.3

806.5

818.0

829.

Wages & Salaries

320.2

319.6

322.3

325.3

327.8

331.2

334.8

339.1

343.6

348.2

352.7

357.4

362.3

367.6

372.

Other Labor Income

73.7

74.4

74.4

75.3

76.2

77.1

78.1

79.4

80.8

82.2

83.5

84.9

86.2

87.5

88.

Nonfarm

39.9

39.9

40.5

41.0

41.5

42.2

43.1

43.8

44.4

45.0

45.6

46.1

46.8

47.4

48.

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.

Farm Property Income

169.7

169.8

172.0

174.6

176.6

179.2

182.1

186.1

190.8

196.4

202.2

207.2

211.1

214.9

218.

Transfer Payments

139.8

142.1

143.7

145.4

145.7

146.6

147.6

148.6

149.6

150.9

152.2

153.6

155.0

156.9

159.

Social Insurance

49.7

50.4

50.4

50.8

51.4

52.4

52.9

53.5

54.2

55.6

56.4

57.3

58.3

59.7

60.

Personal Income

630.5

632.2

637.9

642.8

645.6

649.7

655.4

662.3

670.3

678.6

688.0

696.5

704.3

712.0

719.

Wages & Salaries

Billions 2000 Dollars 290.0

289.4

291.4

293.0

294.1

296.0

298.2

300.8

303.8

306.7

309.9

313.1

316.4

320.0

323.

Other Labor Income

66.8

67.4

67.3

67.8

68.4

68.9

69.6

70.5

71.4

72.4

73.4

74.4

75.3

76.2

77.

Nonfarm

36.1

36.1

36.6

36.9

37.2

37.7

38.4

38.8

39.3

39.6

40.1

40.4

40.9

41.3

41.

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.

Property Income

153.7

153.8

155.5

157.3

158.4

160.2

162.2

165.1

168.7

173.1

177.7

181.5

184.4

187.0

189.

Transfer Payments

126.6

128.7

129.9

131.0

130.8

131.1

131.5

131.8

132.3

133.0

133.7

134.5

135.4

136.6

137.

45.0

45.7

45.5

45.7

46.1

46.8

47.1

47.4

47.9

49.0

49.5

50.2

50.9

52.0

52.

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

714.1

701.4

729.7

804.9

863.6

917.3

Retail Sales (Billions $)

245.8

244.6

245.3

249.4

252.8

256.4

259.5

263.7

269.0

273.3

277.1

280.3

283.8

287.2

290.

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

222.6

221.5

221.8

224.6

226.8

229.2

231.1

233.9

237.8

240.8

243.4

245.5

247.8

250.0

252.

Farm

Social Insurance

*Quarterly at an annual rate

16

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

973.6 1023.2 1073.8 1114.0 1143.2 1172.5 1202.4 1237.0 1271.

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

508.4

531.2

582.8

633.2

690.3

713.5

719.7

697.8

709.2

741.9

788.8

835.8

Wages & Salaries

250.9

264.5

285.6

310.3

333.1

343.3

339.1

321.4

323.8

337.2

355.2

375.2

Other Labor Income

53.3

59.2

63.3

69.5

72.9

73.6

73.7

73.4

75.1

78.8

84.2

89.4

Nonfarm

34.8

36.3

39.6

42.0

45.1

42.6

41.7

39.5

40.7

43.4

45.9

48.5

Farm Property Income

1.3

1.1

1.0

1.5

1.2

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

123.8

122.8

142.7

156.4

181.7

190.9

191.2

173.7

173.3

184.5

204.3

220.3

Transfer Payments

79.8

84.9

91.3

98.1

104.4

111.5

122.6

136.7

144.3

148.1

152.9

159.9

Social Insurance

37.2

39.0

42.3

46.2

49.9

51.1

51.2

49.5

50.7

53.2

56.9

60.9

Billions 2000 Dollars Personal Income

492.2

504.0

538.8

568.4

603.1

607.2

592.6

589.3

639.6

659.4

691.9

723.9

Wages & Salaries

242.9

251.0

264.1

278.6

291.0

292.2

279.2

271.4

292.0

299.7

311.5

324.9

Other Labor Income

51.6

56.1

58.6

62.4

63.7

62.6

60.7

62.0

67.7

70.1

73.9

77.4

Nonfarm

33.7

34.5

36.6

37.7

39.4

36.3

34.4

33.4

36.7

38.6

40.2

42.0

Farm

1.3

1.0

0.9

1.3

1.1

0.7

0.5

0.5

0.7

0.8

0.9

0.9

119.9

116.5

131.9

140.4

158.7

162.4

157.4

146.6

156.3

164.0

179.2

190.8

Transfer Payments

77.3

80.5

84.4

88.0

91.2

94.9

100.9

115.5

130.1

131.6

134.2

138.5

Social Insurance

36.0

37.0

39.1

41.5

43.6

43.5

42.2

41.8

45.8

47.3

49.9

52.7

Property Income

1302.6

1397.3

1442.7

1449.7

1416.7

1242.2

952.0

711.3

774.9

997.0

1158.0

1278.3

Retail Sales (Billions $)

196.6

207.2

225.7

245.9

264.2

267.4

260.9

242.3

248.0

262.1

278.6

292.0

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

190.4

196.5

208.7

220.8

230.8

227.5

214.8

204.7

223.7

233.0

244.4

252.9

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

17

on & Health ployment

ds)

December 2009

cha r t s

07 08 09 10 11 12 13

F l o r i d a F OR E C A S T

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Personal Income 12% 10% 8% 7% 5% 3% 1% -0% -2% -4%

(% change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Florida Real Gross State Product 10%

(% change year ago)

8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

19

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate

Florida Construction Employment (Thousands)

700.0 650.0 600.0 550.0 500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0

20

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Manufacturing Employment 500.0

(Thousands)

450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment 1650.0

(Thousands)

1600.0 1550.0 1500.0 1450.0 1400.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

21

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Financial Activities Employment (Thousands)

560.0 540.0 520.0 500.0 480.0 460.0 440.0 420.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Florida Professional & Business Services Employment (Thousands)

1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0 700.0

22

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Education & Health Services Employment 1200.0 1150.0 1100.0 1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0 750.0

(Thousands)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Florida Information Employment 190.0

(Thousands)

180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

23

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Federal Government Employment (Thousands)

145.0 140.0 135.0 130.0 125.0 120.0 115.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Florida State & Local Government Employment (Thousands)

1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0

24

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Housing Starts 300.0

(thousands)

250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Total Private Housing Starts 30 year Mortgage Rates

8.5% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5%

New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations 40%

(% change year ago)

20% 0% -20% -40% -60%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

25

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Gross State Product 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

(% change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Gross State Product

Florida Employment (Thousands)

8500.0 8000.0 7500.0 7000.0 6500.0 6000.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Wage & Salary Employment

Florida Consumer Price Index (% change year ago)

6% 4% 2% 0% -2%

26

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL CPI

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

F l o r i d a Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Florida officially in running for federal high-speed rail funding

• Governor Crist has officially put Florida in the competition for the $8 billion in federal stimulus funding designated for major transportation projects.

• The high-speed rail would link Tampa, Orlando, and eventually Miami.

• In addition, $2.5 billion through the Florida Department of Transportation would allow construction on the TampaOrlando segment to start next year. If these plans go through, Miami could be added by 2017.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, October 5, 2009

Florida workers’ compensation insurance rate cut approved

• Florida’s Insurance Commissioner, Kevin McCarty, approved a 6.8% rate decrease for new and renewed workers’ compensation insurance.

• There will be an estimated savings of more than $166 million for employers in the state.

• Workers’ compensation rates have been declining since 2003 when the state legislature limited attorney fees. In that time, Florida has gone from having the highest rates in the country, to one of the 10 states with the lowest rates.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, October 15, 2009

Florida sues two online travel giants over tax issue

• Following suit with many county governments, the state of Florida is suing online travel booking giants Orbitz and Expedia over millions in unpaid bed taxes to both the state and local governments.

• A spokesperson from the Interactive Travel Service Association has stated that the companies do not owe the full amount of state taxes on room rentals. He says that the issue at hand is whether a company that is not a hotel should pay a hotel tax.

• Orange County, which has been at the forefront of the legal battle, could be owed as much as $100 million in unpaid taxes.

Source: Orlando Sentinel, November 3, 2009

Cigarette sales plummet in Florida after tax increase

• Sales of cigarettes have dropped approximately 20% since the $1-per-pack tax increase in July. Some counties have seen a drop of 50%.

• The Florida Department of Business and Professional Regulation says that sales totaled more than 100 million packs statewide in June 2009.

• Statewide sales were about 78 million in September 2009.

Source: ABC Action News, November 17, 2009

Florida unemployment tax on businesses to skyrocket

• The minimum unemployment compensation tax will increase next year from $8.40 per employee to $100.30, nearly a twelvefold increase. The maximum tax will rise from $378 to $459 per employee.

• The increase is automatic under Florida state law, set off when the balance in the state’s Unemployment Compensation Trust Fund falls below 4% of taxable payroll.

• The fund fell from last year’s balance of $1.3 billion to zero in August.

Source: Miami Herald, November 18, 2009

Florida gets $1.25M for green jobs

• The U.S. Department of Labor has granted The Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation $1.25 million to support job training that would expand green industries and related occupations.

• The grants were part of a $55-million green job grant program that included two types of grants, one aimed at green job training, targeting special disadvantaged groups of workers, and the other aimed at connecting job seekers with clean industries post-training.

• Other Florida groups that received grants include the Urban League of Broward County and the Florida Institute for Workforce Innovation Inc. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, November 19, 2009

State pushes high-school end-of-course tests

• By 2011, the Florida Department of Education plans to join 21 other states in implementing end-of-course standardized exams for all high school students enrolled in algebra 1 and geometry.

• Officials view these exams as a critical component of high school education reform. They state that these exams will raise the standard of education by eliminating the differences in how these classes are taught between districts and even between individual schools.

• Concerns over how to pay for these exams are not unfounded, as each exam will cost about $1.5 million each year when fully developed and implemented.

Source: Orlando Sentinel, November 27, 2009

Online sales tax nets sparse results for state

• Studies have suggested that Florida could be losing $1 billion a year in unpaid taxes from Internet sales. Currently, online companies based in states that do not have a sales tax do not have to remit any sales tax from purchases made in Florida.

• The Florida Retail Federation says that these online companies have an “unfair” advantage over Florida’s brick-and-mortar business.

• The Florida Department of Business and Professional Regulation has set up an operation to monitor these online sales and has hired six auditors and a “revenue specialist” to assist with the extra workload.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, November 30, 2009

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

27

Met r o s

December 20 09

F l o r i d a F OR E C A S T

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

P r o fi l e s The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is comprised only of Volusia County. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway, which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500.

Quick Facts:

• Population estimate of 500,413 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 249,691 in January 2008 (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• An unemployment rate of 4.9% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted.

This amounts to 12,252 unemployed people.

(Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• Volusia County Schools – 6,816 employees

• Halifax Medical Center – 3,136 employees • Volusia County – 2,600 employees

• City of Daytona Beach – 1,159 employees • Memorial Hospital – 1,000 employees

• Embry Riddle Aeronautical University – 900 employees • Memorial Hospital West Volusia – 853 employees • Sherwood Medical – 850 employees

• The Daytona Beach News-Journal – 829 employees

• Daytona Beach Community College – 743 employees

Source: Southeast Volusia Chamber of Commerce

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Deltona—Daytona—Ormond Beach MSA is expected to show modest growth in all of the economic indicators measured in this forecast.

Personal income is expected to average 4.4 percent growth, while the per capita income level will be at 29.6. Average annual wage will be the lowest level in the state at 36.9. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.3 percent. Population growth will be the lowest in the state at 0.2 percent. Gross Metro Product will also be one of the lowest in the state at 10,585.03 (Mill).

The employment growth rate is expected to average 1.1 percent each year. Unemployment will be one of the worst in the state, averaging 11.1 percent annually.

The Deltona MSA will experience the most growth in the Manufacturing sector, with an average growth rate of 2.5 percent annually. The Education and Health Services sector will see the second-most growth in the MSA, at 1.8 percent annual growth.

The Trade, Transportation, and Utility sector follows with an annual growth rate of 1.5 percent.

Construction & Mining and the Federal Government are the only sectors that will experience declines, with annual growth rates of -0.3 percent and -0.9 percent respectively.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Economy ‘hasn’t hurt’ Volusia County Fair • David Viers, executive director of the Volusia County Fair Association, estimated a 5% increase in ticket sales and customer spending at this year’s fair, compared to 2008.

• Viers suggests that the lagging economy has families staying in town and participating in local, affordable outings like the county fair.

• The Volusia County Fair, a not-for-profit organization, recovered its $1 million budget, as well as some extra cash to help with next year’s fair.

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, November 15, 2009 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

29

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

New vehicle sales drop to lowest point of the year • New vehicle sales in Volusia and Flagler counties dropped to their lowest point of the year in the month of October.

• The 32 new-vehicle dealers in the two counties sold 878 units in October, a figure down 36% from last year.

• October is the second straight month dealers have seen a drop in sales in the wake of the federal Cash for Clunkers program.

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, November 19, 2009 City shake-up aimed at reducing taxpayer burden • City manager Pam Brangaccio will be unveiling a revised command structure, an effort aimed at reducing the burden on taxpayers.

• Brangaccio’s revisions include eliminating the deputy fire chief position, as well as combining the duties of public works director and assistant city manager–revisions that will save the city hundreds of thousands of dollars.

• The county commission will review the proposal during their meeting on November 24.

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, November 23, 2009 Shoppers jam stores in chaotic bargain hunt • Retailers in Volusia County saw a beacon of hope on Black Friday as deal seeking consumers battled the cold and crowds to take advantage of the post-Thanksgiving bargains. Volusia Mall JC Penny manager Lee Earls says customers come in early for their “doorbusters,” and for specials on big ticket items including housewares, electronics, and jewelry.

• From all early accounts, this year’s Black Friday shopping event was a serious improvement from last year; giving retailers hope that the storm clouds of the recession are beginning to part.

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, November 28, 2009 30

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

City finds e-zone planners too costly • The city of Daytona will begin work on longsince planned beachside improvements, including a Boardwalk Hotel, a new parking garage, and a series of landscaping renovations.

• The Redevelopment commission in charge of the project suffered “sticker shock” when a sampling of 29 firms quoted the undertaking from $348,000 to more than $1.1 million, a price well above their $250,000 budget.

• The commission also plans to cut costs by reducing the workload placed on the firm in charge of the project and shifting some previously privatized tasks to county workers.

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, December 4, 2009

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Deltona Payroll Employment

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product 11500.0 11000.0 10500.0 10000.0 9500.0 9000.0 8500.0 8000.0

Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment 180.0

0.8

(Millions 2000 $)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income 15.0% 12.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% -3.0% -6.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

31

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL*

December 2009 Forecast

2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

15.2 -1.6 5.7 9.5 13.7 8.1 30.2 27.4 35.2 -0.2

15.2 0.2 5.7 9.5 13.7 9.6 30.4 27.5 35.5 2.4

15.3 1 5.7 9.7 13.9 10.7 30.9 27.9 35.7 3

15.6 2.7 5.7 9.8 14 12.8 31.3 28.2 36 3.3

15.7 3.5 5.8 9.9 14.1 2.5 31.6 28.4 36.2 2.8

15.8 4.4 5.8 10 14.2 3.1 32 28.6 36.3 2.5

16 4.4 5.9 10.2 14.3 2.9 32.4 28.8 36.5 2

16.2 4.5 5.9 10.3 14.4 2.9 32.8 29.1 36.6 1.6

16.5 5.1 6 10.5 14.6 3.6 33.3 29.4 36.8 1.6

16.7 5.6 6 10.7 14.7 4.1 33.8 29.7 36.9 1.6

17 6.1 6.1 10.9 14.9 4.7 34.3 30.1 37.1 1.8

17.3 6.3 6.2 11.1 15.1 4.9 34.7 30.4 37.3 1.9

17.5 6 6.3 11.2 15.3 4.7 35.1 30.6 37.5 2.1

17.7 5.7 6.3 11.4 15.4 4.5 35.4 30.8 37.8 2.3

158.6 -0.7 8.3 0.6 150.3 -0.7 9.3 -8.6 30.4 0.4 5.1 22.2 2.2 2.3 -2.2 6.6 -4.8 15.1 -1.3 32.9 1.6 22.8 -0.2 7.8 0.5 1.4 3.8 21.8 -1.5

159.1 0.4 8.4 1.1 150.7 0.4 9.2 -6.9 30.6 1.5 5.1 22.5 2.3 2.3 -1.5 6.7 -3.6 15.2 3.4 33 2.2 22.8 0.7 7.8 1.2 1.3 -3.9 21.7 -1.2

159.9 1 8.4 1.9 151.5 0.9 9.2 -4 30.7 1.9 5.2 22.5 2.3 2.4 3.8 6.8 -1.4 15.4 4.3 33.4 2.5 22.8 0.1 7.8 1.2 1.3 -11.7 21.8 -0.8

160.8 1.5 8.5 3.2 152.3 1.4 9.3 -1.2 30.9 1.9 5.3 22.6 2.3 2.4 7.6 6.8 1.3 15.6 4.3 33.6 2.6 22.7 -0.7 7.9 0.9 1.3 -6.3 21.9 0.1

161.8 2 8.7 4.3 153.1 1.9 9.4 1 31.2 2.5 5.4 22.9 2.4 2.4 7.8 6.9 3.4 15.8 4.7 33.7 2.5 22.7 -0.6 7.9 0.8 1.3 -3.6 21.9 0.8

162.6 2.2 8.8 5 153.8 2.1 9.5 3.4 31.4 2.7 5.4 23.1 2.4 2.4 7.2 6.9 3.3 15.8 3.9 33.7 2.1 22.7 -0.2 7.9 0.7 1.3 -1.7 22 1.4

163.8 2.4 8.9 5.6 154.9 2.3 9.7 5.1 31.6 3.1 5.5 23.3 2.5 2.5 4.2 7 3 15.9 3.3 33.9 1.7 22.9 0.5 7.9 0.8 1.3 -0.8 22.2 2

164.8 2.5 9 5.5 155.8 2.3 9.8 6 31.8 3.1 5.5 23.3 2.5 2.5 1.6 7 3 16 2.6 34 1.4 23 1.3 7.9 1.1 1.3 -0.4 22.3 2.2

165.7 2.4 9.1 4.8 156.7 2.3 10 6.3 32 2.7 5.6 23.4 2.5 2.5 1.8 7.1 2.8 16.1 2.1 34.1 1.2 23.1 1.9 8 1.3 1.3 -0.2 22.5 2.5

166.6 2.5 9.2 4.4 157.4 2.3 10.2 7 32.2 2.6 5.6 23.6 2.6 2.5 1.8 7.1 2.3 16.2 2.5 34.2 1.2 23.2 1.9 8 1.3 1.3 -0.1 22.6 2.7

10057.3 10060.8 10102.2 10132.6 10155.7 10210.1 10297.5 10402.6 10507.1 10594.8 10698.1 10793.1 10879.9 501.7 499.1 497.3 496.3 496.1 495.6 495.3 495.1 495.3 495.7 496.6 497.7 498.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0 -1.1 -0.7 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 0 0.3 0.5 0.7 251.5 250.6 250.6 250.7 251.1 251.5 251.8 252.2 252.8 253.6 254.7 255.7 256.9 -1.2 -2.2 -2.2 -0.9 -0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.6 11.6 12.9 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.3 12 11.6 11.2 11 10.6 10.2 9.9 1070 1340 1603 1788 2042 2397 2825 3248 3578 3810 4045 4258 4376 1036 1292 1564 1727 2000 2360 2778 3133 3397 3541 3714 3844 3885 35 48 39 61 42 37 47 115 182 269 331 415 491

10946 499.8 0.8 258.2 1.8 9.7 4447 3888 559

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

159.7 -2.2 8.3 -7.4 151.4 -1.9 10.2 -7.8 30.3 -2.3 5.2 22.5 2.3 2.3 -8.5 7 -5.1 15.3 -9.3 32.4 2.1 22.9 2.8 7.8 -2.2 1.3 -5.3 22.1 -1.1

158.4 -2.7 8.3 -5.1 150.1 -2.5 9.9 -10.2 30.1 -2.3 5.2 21.9 2.3 2.3 -7.2 6.9 -4.6 14.7 -9.3 32.3 1.5 22.6 -0.2 7.7 -2.6 1.4 -0.5 22 -1.2

158.3 -2.1 8.3 -2.2 150.1 -2.1 9.6 -10.5 30.1 -2.8 5.1 22 2.2 2.3 -5.5 6.9 -4.1 14.7 -7 32.6 2.4 22.7 -0.7 7.8 -0.9 1.5 7.3 22 -1.5

*Quarterly at an annual rate

32

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

158.5 -1.2 8.3 -1 150.2 -1.3 9.4 -10.5 30.3 -1.2 5.1 22.1 2.2 2.2 -6.1 6.7 -4.1 15 -2.6 32.7 1.9 22.9 0 7.8 0.2 1.4 5.7 21.8 -1.4

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

December 2009 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

11.7 4.6 4.3 7.3 11.3 3.2 25.4 24.6 28.1 4.3

12.2 4.7 4.7 7.5 11.6 2.6 26.2 24.8 29.3 4.5

13.4 9.4 5.1 8.3 12.4 6.6 28 25.9 30.5 4.2

14.2 5.9 5.5 8.7 12.7 2.8 29.1 26.1 31.6 3.4

15.2 7.3 5.9 9.3 13.3 4.4 30.7 26.8 33.6 6.3

15.5 1.9 6 9.4 13.2 -0.8 31 26.4 34.7 3.3

15.5 0.3 5.9 9.6 12.8 -2.9 31.2 25.7 35.1 1.3

15.2 -2.4 5.6 9.5 12.8 0.1 30.5 25.7 34.8 -0.8

15.4 1.8 5.7 9.7 13.9 8.7 31.1 28 35.8 2.9

16.2 4.6 5.9 10.3 14.4 3.1 32.6 29 36.5 1.9

17.1 6 6.2 11 15 4.6 34.4 30.2 37.2 1.8

18 5.3 6.4 11.6 15.6 4 35.9 31.1 38.2 2.5

174.9 1.8 10.6 3.9 164.3 1.6 15.9 7.3 33.2 0.1 5 25.9 2.4 2.4 8.3 7.9 7.2 20.4 -0.9 30.5 0.2 21.6 -0.4 8.3 1.2 1.4 -0.6 22.8 4.4

173.5 -0.8 10.3 -2.6 163.1 -0.7 14.2 -10.4 33.6 1.1 5.3 25.8 2.5 2.5 5.2 8 2.2 19 -6.7 30.6 0.2 22.6 4.6 8.1 -1.7 1.4 -0.6 23.1 1.4

166.9 -3.8 9.3 -10.4 157.7 -3.4 11.5 -19.1 32.2 -4.1 5.3 24.5 2.4 2.6 4 7.7 -3.9 17.4 -8.4 31.8 4 22.6 0 8 -1.8 1.4 0 22.5 -2.9

161.1 -3.5 8.4 -8.9 152.7 -3.1 10.6 -8.1 30.7 -4.7 5.2 23.1 2.3 2.4 -8.1 7.1 -7.9 15.7 -9.9 32 0.7 22.8 1.2 7.8 -1.9 1.4 -2.5 22.2 -1.2

158.5 -1.7 8.3 -1.9 150.2 -1.7 9.5 -10 30.2 -1.5 5.1 22 2.2 2.3 -5.3 6.8 -4.4 14.9 -5.1 32.6 1.9 22.8 -0.3 7.8 -0.7 1.4 4.1 21.9 -1.4

160.4 1.2 8.5 2.6 151.9 1.2 9.3 -2.9 30.8 1.9 5.2 22.6 2.3 2.4 4.4 6.8 -0.1 15.5 4.2 33.4 2.5 22.7 -0.1 7.9 1 1.3 -6.5 21.8 -0.3

164.2 2.4 8.9 5.2 155.3 2.2 9.7 5.2 31.7 2.9 5.5 23.3 2.5 2.5 3.7 7 3 16 3 34 1.6 22.9 0.9 7.9 1 1.3 -0.8 22.3 2

168 2.3 9.3 4 158.7 2.2 10.4 6.5 32.5 2.6 5.7 23.8 2.6 2.5 1.9 7.1 1.7 16.4 2.5 34.4 1.1 23.2 1.3 8 0.9 1.3 -0.4 22.9 2.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

153.8 1.9 9.6 -7.3 144.2 2.6 10.6 8.3 30.9 -0.6 4.7 23.6 2.7 2.5 -12.2 6.4 -2.3 16.4 3.8 28.2 7.7 19.6 0.8 7.6 6.8 1.4 2.5 20.6 0.9

158.6 3.1 9.4 -1.5 149.1 3.4 11.5 7.9 31.5 1.6 4.6 24.3 2.6 2.3 -7.6 6.5 1.2 17.4 6.3 30.1 6.7 20 2.2 7.8 2.9 1.4 2.4 20.7 0.5

9058.2 459.2 1.6 220.9 2.9 5.5 4785 4136 649

9078.1 467.3 1.8 226.8 2.7 5.2 6171 4990 1181

165.4 4.3 9.8 3.9 155.6 4.3 12.9 12.8 32 1.7 4.7 25 2.3 2.3 -2.5 6.9 7.2 19.1 9.8 30.7 1.9 21.1 5.3 8.2 4 1.4 0 21.1 2

171.8 3.9 10.2 4.3 161.6 3.9 14.8 14.5 33.2 3.7 4.8 26 2.4 2.2 -3.2 7.3 5.5 20.6 7.7 30.5 -0.7 21.7 2.9 8.2 0.1 1.4 1.2 21.8 3.5

9431.2 10041.2 10491.6 10461.9 10244.6 477.6 486.9 495.3 499.1 497.8 2.2 2 1.7 0.8 -0.3 232.7 240.9 246.6 250.8 253.6 2.6 3.5 2.3 1.7 1.1 4.5 3.7 3.3 4.1 6.6 6179 6363 4126 2194 1366 4779 5121 3100 1583 1018 1401 1242 1026 611 348

9976.8 10112.8 10354.3 10741.5 11051.5 497.8 497.2 495.3 497.2 501.6 0 -0.1 -0.4 0.4 0.9 254.2 250.7 252.1 255.2 260.2 0.2 -1.3 0.5 1.2 2 11 12.7 11.8 10.4 9.4 832 1693 3012 4122 4596 770 1646 2917 3746 3967 62 48 95 376 630

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

33

Gai n e s v i l l e

P r o fi l e s The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist counties and is located in the northcentral portion of the state. This metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history museum.

Quick Facts:

• Metro population estimate of 257,099 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Alachua County population estimate of 240,082 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Gilchrist County population estimate of 17,017 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• A civilian labor force of 135,702 in January 2008 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3.1% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 4,162 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• University of Florida – 35,000 employees • Shands Hospital – 8,225 employees

• North Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,560 employees • Nationwide Insurance – 1,058 employees

Sources: University of Florida and Gainesville Council for Economic Outreach

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Gainesville MSA is expected to show modest growth in all of the economic indicators measured in this forecast, relative to the state. Personal income growth will be one of the lowest in the state, averaging 3.8 percent, while per capita income level is expected to average 30.3. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.4 percent, while the average annual wage level will be 39.9. Population growth will be at an average rate of 0.8 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be one of the lowest in the state, at a level of 7,923.95 (Mill).

This metro will see an employment growth rate of 0.6 percent annually, one of the lowest in the state. The metro will maintain the lowest rate of unemployment in the state, at 6.3 percent annually.

The fastest growing sector in the area will be the Manufacturing sector, with an average growth rate of 2.5 percent annually. This is followed by the Education and Health Services sector, with an average annual growth rate of 1.4 percent, and the Professional & Business Services sector with 1.3 percent growth.

Construction & Mining and the Federal Government are the only sectors that will experience declines, both with annual growth rates of -1.0 percent.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Shands Cancer Hospital: It’ll be high-tech, hightouch • On November 1, the Shands Cancer Hospital at the University of Florida will be opening its doors to patients for the first time. The construction started in January 2007 and has remained within the planned budget of $388 million.

• The new hospital is filled with high-tech equipment in its radiology department, operating rooms, critical care center, trauma center, and patient rooms. The equipment and rooms inside the hospital are designed to further patient healing and offer families hope.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, October 20, 2009

34

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

Gai n e s v i l l e

Wal-Mart loses Supercenter bid • The city’s Development Review Board will not reconsider its decision to deny Wal-Mart’s plans to build a new Supercenter in northwest Gainesville. Wal-Mart’s development plan was inconsistent with the city’s comprehensive plan and zoning codes.

• The board gave Wal-Mart two opportunities to revise their plans, but didn’t think the company went far enough with their changes to approve the new plans.

• The ruling focused on the design of the Supercenter, not the issue of whether Wal-Mart should build on the site. Wal-Mart has 30 days from October 28 to appeal the decision.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, October 30, 2009 Two sites preferred for new elementary schools • The Alachua County School Board has plans to build a new elementary school to decrease the current overcrowding in elementary schools.

• The 18-acre Oakmont property, located in the west urban area, and the 20-acre Tillman property in High Springs have been accepted as recommendations, among other sites.

• The school board’s decision to approve a prototype to be built at either location should be reached by December. If approved, the new school would be opening in fall 2011.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, November 6, 2009

UF faculty is undergoing a big transformation • In an effort to cut $6 million out of its budget, the University of Florida is offering voluntary retirement buyouts. Faculty members who chose this option receive an extra year’s salary.

• Another initiative focuses on eliminating vacant faculty positions. About 60 positions will need to be eliminated to reach the required $6 million in cuts.

• At the same time, UF plans to hire 100 new faculty members, spending $10 million in federal stimulus money and relying on tuition increases to cover their salaries.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, November 12, 2009 Natural pollution solution • The $24-million Sheetflow Restoration Project’s main goal is to clean up the Alachua Sink by restoring over 1,300 acres of wetlands affected with the high levels of nitrogen and phosphorus.

• As part of the project, Gainesville Regional Utilities’ Main Street Reclamation Facility will reduce the level of phosphorus discharged into the creek, and an 80-year-old trench dug through the prairie will be filled, allowing for natural dispersion of the water into the wetlands.

• The city and GRU are providing 75% of the funding; the other 25% will come through state and federal allocations.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, November 16, 2009

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

35

Gai n e s v i l l e Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.5

Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate 12.0% 10.0%

(percent)

3

8500.0

(Millions 2000 $)

8000.0

6500.0 6000.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

130.0 125.0 120.0

36

2.5

7000.0

135.0

115.0

2

Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product

5500.0

Gainesville Payroll Employment 140.0

1.5

7500.0

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

1

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Gainesville Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Gainesville Real Personal Income 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income

Gai n e s v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL*

December 2009 Forecast

2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

8.4 -2.6 4.9 3.5 7.6 7 31.9 28.9 37.9 -0.2

8.4 -0.1 4.9 3.5 7.6 9.2 32 29 38.2 2.4

8.5 1 5 3.5 7.7 10.6 32.3 29.2 38.5 3.1

8.6 2.4 5 3.6 7.7 12.5 32.6 29.4 38.8 3.4

8.7 3 5 3.6 7.8 2.1 32.8 29.4 39 2.9

8.7 3.8 5.1 3.7 7.8 2.5 33.1 29.6 39.2 2.6

8.8 3.6 5.1 3.7 7.9 2 33.3 29.7 39.3 2.1

8.9 3.6 5.1 3.8 7.9 2.1 33.7 29.9 39.5 1.7

9 4.2 5.2 3.8 8 2.7 34 30.1 39.6 1.7

9.1 4.6 5.2 3.9 8.1 3.1 34.4 30.3 39.8 1.7

9.3 5.1 5.3 4 8.1 3.6 34.8 30.6 40 1.9

9.4 5.2 5.3 4 8.2 3.9 35.1 30.8 40.3 2

9.5 5.1 5.4 4.1 8.3 3.8 35.4 30.9 40.5 2.2

9.6 4.9 5.5 4.1 8.4 3.7 35.8 31.1 40.8 2.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

129.9 -3 4.5 -10.8 125.4 -2.7 5 -9 18.4 -5.9 2.8 12.9 2.5 1.7 -7 6 -3.5 10.1 -8.8 22.6 0.2 15.5 2.1 4.7 -0.7 3.9 -2.8 37.6 -2

128.9 -2.7 4.5 -6.6 124.4 -2.5 4.9 -9 18.3 -4.2 2.8 12.6 2.5 1.6 -9.2 5.9 -3.4 9.7 -8.5 22.7 0.1 15.3 -0.4 4.7 -1.1 3.9 -2.3 37.4 -1.3

129 -2.1 4.5 -2.7 124.5 -2 4.7 -9.8 18.2 -3.6 2.8 12.6 2.4 1.6 -11.5 5.9 -4.2 9.7 -5.4 22.8 1.5 15.4 -0.8 4.7 -0.3 4.2 6.6 37.3 -2.2

128.8 -1.5 4.5 -0.6 124.3 -1.5 4.6 -11.3 18.3 -1.8 2.8 12.7 2.4 1.6 -5.7 5.8 -4.1 9.9 -2.8 22.9 1.8 15.5 -0.3 4.7 -0.4 4 2 37 -2

128.7 -0.9 4.5 0.9 124.2 -1 4.6 -9.2 18.4 -0.3 2.8 12.8 2.4 1.6 -2.6 5.7 -4.2 9.9 -1.2 23 1.7 15.5 0 4.7 0 3.9 1.4 36.9 -2

128.9 0 4.5 1.2 124.3 -0.1 4.5 -7.4 18.4 0.9 2.8 12.9 2.4 1.6 0 5.8 -3.3 10 3.5 23.1 2 15.5 0.9 4.7 0.8 3.9 0.4 36.8 -1.8

129.3 0.2 4.6 1.9 124.7 0.2 4.5 -4.5 18.5 1.4 2.8 12.9 2.5 1.7 4.3 5.8 -1.2 10.2 4.4 23.3 2.2 15.5 0.4 4.7 0.8 3.9 -8.3 36.8 -1.4

129.9 0.8 4.6 3.3 125.2 0.7 4.5 -1.8 18.6 1.5 2.8 13 2.5 1.7 5.5 5.9 1.4 10.3 4.4 23.5 2.3 15.4 -0.5 4.7 0.6 3.8 -4.3 36.8 -0.5

130.4 1.3 4.7 4.5 125.7 1.2 4.6 0.3 18.7 2.1 2.9 13.1 2.6 1.7 4.4 5.9 3.4 10.4 4.8 23.5 2.2 15.4 -0.5 4.7 0.5 3.8 -2.8 36.9 0.1

130.9 1.6 4.8 5.3 126.1 1.4 4.6 2.5 18.9 2.4 2.9 13.2 2.6 1.7 3.8 5.9 3.3 10.4 3.9 23.5 1.8 15.5 0 4.7 0.5 3.8 -2.2 37 0.6

131.6 1.8 4.8 5.9 126.8 1.6 4.7 4 19 2.8 2.9 13.3 2.6 1.7 2.4 6 2.9 10.5 3.3 23.6 1.4 15.6 0.6 4.7 0.7 3.8 -1.5 37.2 1.1

132.3 1.8 4.9 5.8 127.4 1.7 4.8 4.8 19.1 2.7 2.9 13.3 2.7 1.7 1.4 6 2.8 10.6 2.6 23.7 0.9 15.7 1.4 4.7 1 3.8 -1.1 37.3 1.4

132.9 1.9 4.9 5 127.9 1.8 4.8 4.9 19.2 2.3 3 13.3 2.7 1.7 1.7 6.1 2.5 10.6 2 23.7 0.8 15.7 2 4.8 1.1 3.8 -0.8 37.5 1.7

133.4 1.9 5 4.6 128.4 1.8 4.9 5.5 19.3 2.2 3 13.4 2.7 1.7 1.8 6.1 2.1 10.7 2.4 23.7 0.8 15.8 1.9 4.8 1 3.8 -0.7 37.7 1.9

7615.4 263.8 1.6 137 -2.7 7.2 514 436 78

7610.2 263.3 1.2 136.2 -2.6 7.4 654 548 106

7640.2 263.3 1 136 -2.4 7.3 750 644 106

7663.8 263.5 0.8 136 -1.6 7.2 789 667 121

7677.6 263.9 0 136.1 -0.6 7.1 855 719 136

7710 264.2 0.3 136.2 0 7 967 796 172

7763 264.6 0.5 136.3 0.2 6.8 1052 874 179

7827.9 264.9 0.5 136.4 0.3 6.6 1107 912 195

7894 265.3 0.6 136.7 0.4 6.4 1169 967 202

7946.9 265.8 0.6 137 0.6 6.2 1211 997 214

8010.6 266.4 0.7 137.6 0.9 6 1258 1045 213

8067.8 267.1 0.8 138 1.2 5.8 1329 1082 248

8119.5 267.7 0.9 138.5 1.4 5.6 1369 1091 278

8154.4 268.3 0.9 139.1 1.5 5.5 1394 1093 301

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

37

Gai n e s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

December 2009 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

6 2.5 3.6 2.3 5.8 1.1 25 24.2 28.8 3.7

6.2 3.6 3.8 2.4 5.9 1.5 25.6 24.3 29.4 2.2

7 13.2 4.3 2.7 6.5 10.3 28.7 26.5 32.9 11.9

7.6 8.1 4.6 3 6.8 4.9 30.5 27.3 34.6 5.3

8.2 8 4.9 3.3 7.1 5.1 32.3 28.2 36.4 5.1

8.5 4.2 5.1 3.4 7.2 1.5 33.2 28.2 37.5 3.1

8.7 1.7 5.1 3.5 7.1 -1.6 33.4 27.5 38 1.3

8.4 -2.8 4.9 3.5 7.1 -0.3 32.2 27.2 37.5 -1.3

8.5 1.6 5 3.6 7.7 8.5 32.4 29.3 38.6 3

8.9 3.8 5.1 3.7 7.9 2.3 33.5 29.8 39.4 2

9.3 5 5.3 4 8.2 3.6 34.9 30.6 40.2 1.9

9.8 4.7 5.6 4.2 8.5 3.4 36.2 31.4 41.2 2.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

38

126 -0.1 5 -0.8 121 -0.1 5.1 5.6 18 -1.2 2.3 13.3 2.3 2 -6.5 6.6 -0.1 9.9 -10.4 20.4 2.4 12.1 -1.3 4.3 10.3 3.2 2.1 39.4 1

127.4 1.1 4.7 -5.4 122.6 1.3 5.2 1.5 18.1 1.1 2.5 13.2 2.5 2 -1.3 6.2 -6.4 10.4 4.3 20.8 2.3 12 -0.5 4.5 5.4 3.3 3.6 40 1.6

129.6 1.8 4.7 -1.8 125 1.9 5.8 11.7 18.2 0.4 2.6 13.2 2.4 2.1 6.1 6.2 -0.7 11.3 8.8 21.5 3 12.9 7.5 4.7 3.3 3.4 3.8 38.9 -2.8

131.2 1.2 4.6 -0.2 126.5 1.2 6.2 6.3 18.9 3.5 2.7 13.8 2.4 2 -5.8 6.2 1 11.9 5.6 21.9 2.1 13.7 5.9 4.5 -3 3.7 5.9 37.6 -3.3

133.3 1.6 5.2 12.2 128.1 1.2 6.5 5.3 19.5 3.3 2.7 14.1 2.6 2 -2.9 6.5 4 12.1 1.3 21.9 0.1 13.4 -2 4.7 2.6 3.7 2.1 37.9 0.9

135.2 1.4 5.3 2.2 129.9 1.4 6.5 0.9 20.3 3.9 2.8 14.9 2.6 2 2.6 6.4 -0.5 11.6 -4.1 21.8 -0.5 14 4.1 4.8 3.7 3.8 3.1 38.6 1.8

134.6 -0.5 5.1 -4.8 129.5 -0.3 5.7 -12.5 19.7 -2.7 2.9 14.2 2.7 1.9 -6.6 6.3 -2.8 11.2 -3.4 22.4 2.8 14.9 6.5 4.8 -0.9 4 4.1 38.7 0.1

131.2 -2.5 4.6 -9.4 126.6 -2.2 5.2 -9 18.8 -4.8 2.8 13.4 2.5 1.7 -7 6.1 -2.9 10.3 -8 22.6 0.7 15.5 4.1 4.7 -2.1 3.9 -1.8 37.9 -2

128.9 -1.8 4.5 -2.3 124.4 -1.8 4.7 -9.8 18.3 -2.5 2.8 12.7 2.4 1.6 -7.4 5.8 -4 9.8 -4.5 22.9 1.3 15.4 -0.4 4.7 -0.4 4 1.9 37.2 -1.9

129.6 0.6 4.6 2.7 125 0.5 4.5 -3.4 18.6 1.5 2.8 13 2.5 1.7 3.6 5.8 0 10.2 4.3 23.3 2.2 15.5 0.1 4.7 0.7 3.9 -3.8 36.8 -0.9

131.9 1.8 4.9 5.5 127 1.6 4.7 4.1 19 2.5 2.9 13.3 2.7 1.7 2.3 6 2.9 10.5 2.9 23.6 1.2 15.6 1 4.7 0.8 3.8 -1.4 37.3 1.2

134.2 1.7 5.1 4.2 129.1 1.6 5 5.1 19.4 2.1 3 13.5 2.8 1.7 1.6 6.1 1.4 10.8 2.4 23.8 0.7 15.8 1.2 4.8 0.6 3.8 -0.8 38 1.9

6273.8 239 1.2 125 0.4 4 1942 1130 812

6434.4 241.4 1 126 0.8 3.7 1706 1261 446

6993.4 244.3 1.2 126.5 0.4 3.4 1838 1378 461

7303 248.3 1.7 128.9 1.8 2.9 2224 1454 770

7577.6 253.2 2 131.6 2.1 2.7 1885 1156 729

7726.8 256.6 1.3 135.7 3.1 3 1368 763 605

7746.2 258.8 0.9 139.5 2.8 4.3 1033 491 542

7575.7 261.5 1 138.6 -0.6 6.8 491 360 131

7648 263.5 0.8 136.1 -1.8 7.3 762 644 117

7798.7 264.8 0.5 136.4 0.2 6.7 1074 887 187

8036.2 266.8 0.7 137.8 1 5.9 1292 1054 238

8212.9 269.3 1 139.8 1.4 5.3 1433 1113 321

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

J ac k s o n v i l l e

P r o fi l e s The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport.

Quick Facts: • • • • • • • •

Metro population estimate of 1,300,823 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau)

Baker County population estimate of 25,745 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau)

Clay County population estimate of 182,023 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau)

Duval County population estimate of 849,159 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) Nassau County population estimate of 68,450 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau)

St. Johns County population estimate of 175,446 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) A civilian labor force of 664,425 in January 2008 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database)

An unemployment rate of 4.4% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 29,022 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database)

Top Area Employers: • Naval Air Station Jacksonville – 25,245 employees • Duval County Public Schools – 16,003 employees • Naval Station Mayport – 15,293 employees • City of Jacksonville Municipal Government – 8,828 employees • Blue Cross – 8,200 employees • Baptist Health – 7,000 employees • Winn-Dixie Stores, Inc. – 6,200 employees • Mayo Clinic – 5,000 employees • CSX – 4,400 employees • Citibank – 4,200 employees Source: The Cornerstone Regional Development Partnership

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Jacksonville MSA is expected to see strong growth in most of the economic indicators, relative to the state. Personal income will see an average growth rate of 4.8 percent, while the per capita income level will be one of the highest in the state at 36.7. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.7 percent, the highest in the state. Average annual wage is also expected to be among the highest in the state, at a level of 47.9. Population growth will be moderate at an average annual rate of 1.0 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 50,479.83 (Mill).

Employment growth is expected to be 1.6 percent annually, tied for second highest in the state.

Unemployment will average 10.2 percent in the MSA. The fastest growing sector in the Jacksonville MSA will be Professional and Business Services, which will see an average annual growth rate of 4.3 percent.

Following that sector is Education and Health Services, with an annual growth rate of 2.3 percent, and then Manufacturing with a 2.1 percent growth rate. Information, Construction & Mining, and the Federal Government are the only sectors that will experience declines, with annual growth rates of -0.1 percent, -0.3 percent, and -0.9 percent respectively.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s EverBank makes $535M acquisition • Jacksonville-based EverBank Financial Corp., the parent of EverBank, the third largest bank of the northeast, will acquire the commercial financing and leasing company Tygris Commercial Financial Group, Inc. • The acquisition will help to continue EverBank’s excellent growth, despite the recession, and will provide them with $535 million in growth capital to maintain its strategic plans for the future.

• The company earned a record $26 million last year, an increase of 41% from the previous year.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, October 22, 2009 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

39

J ac k s o n v i l l e

Dredging near Mayport Naval Station OK’d by Congress • U.S. Congressional approval has been given for a $46.3 million dredging project and for $29.6 million in wharf updates. The project is seen as a crucial step toward the Mayport station becoming a home port to nuclear aircraft carriers.

• Negotiators state that the project was approved only because the dredging is necessary for visiting ships to use the station, and that the recent authorization does not necessarily indicate support for the establishment of a new home port.

• Florida members of Congress continue to push for support for the upgrade, based on the view that having only one East Coast carrier port represents a strategic danger for national security.

Source: The Florida Times-Union, October 23, 2009 $5B transportation plan OK’d for NE Florida • A transportation plan for Northeast Florida was unanimously passed by the North Florida Transportation Planning Organization’s board.

The $5 billion plan spans two decades and will be updated every five years.

• The plan includes $777 million for non-road projects, such as a commuter rail and buses—a shift that is due to the mid-2008 spike in gasoline prices, publicity about commuter rails, and the impact of vehicle emissions on the environment.

• The main projects in the $5 billion plan include $1.8 billion for the construction of the First Coast Outer Beltway—a four-lane toll road spanning more than 46 miles, $45 million for the rebuilding of the Mathews Bridge, and $142 million for the widening of a stretch of State Road A1A to six lanes.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, November 12, 2009

40

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

EPA program includes Jacksonville • The Environmental Protection Agency chose 10 cities, including Jacksonville, as part of their Environmental Justice Showcase Communities initiative. The initiative is a demonstration project, aimed at improving public health and the environment.

• The EPA will give $100,000 to each city over the next two years. Some of the other cities include Los Angeles, Milwaukee, Washington D.C. and Salt Lake City.

• The project highlights the high level of environmental burdens that restrict growth in low-income and minority communities; the model cities are expected to provide lessons to amend the situation.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, November 17, 2009 Busy Memorial Hospital expands with $81M wing • Memorial Hospital has opened a new $81 million, five-story tower that adds 51 beds to the 353 beds already available.

• As the busiest hospital in Duval and Clay counties, Memorial Hospital operated at an average bed capacity of 87% in 2008, higher than a hospital’s ideal occupancy of 75%.

• State records also suggest that hospitals in these counties may have more beds than the area needs. The nine hospitals in the area have more than 2,800 acute-care beds, with only a 67% capacity rate in 2008.

Source: The Florida Times-Union, December 2, 2009

J ac k s o n v i l l e

Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

8.0%

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product 55000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

40000.0

4.0% 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate

35000.0

Jacksonville Payroll Employment (Thousands)

640.0 620.0 600.0 580.0 560.0 540.0 520.0

1

45000.0

6.0%

660.0

0.8

50000.0

10.0%

2.0%

0.4

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Jacksonville Payroll Employment

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Jacksonville Real Personal Income 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

41

J ac k s o n v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL*

December 2009 Forecast

2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

51.2 -2.2 27.7 23.5 46.4 7.4 38.1 34.5 45.2 0.1

51.3 -0.1 27.7 23.6 46.4 9.3 38.2 34.6 45.7 2.6

51.9 1.2 28 24 46.9 10.8 38.7 35 46.1 3.4

52.6 2.8 28.2 24.3 47.3 13 39.1 35.2 46.5 3.8

53 3.5 28.4 24.6 47.6 2.6 39.4 35.3 46.7 3.3

53.6 4.5 28.7 24.9 47.9 3.1 39.8 35.5 47 3

54.3 4.5 29.1 25.2 48.3 3 40.2 35.8 47.2 2.5

55.1 4.8 29.5 25.6 48.8 3.2 40.7 36.1 47.4 2.1

55.9 5.5 29.9 26.1 49.5 4 41.3 36.5 47.7 2

56.9 6.1 30.3 26.5 50.1 4.6 41.8 36.9 48 2

57.8 6.5 30.7 27.1 50.8 5.1 42.4 37.2 48.2 2.1

58.7 6.7 31.2 27.6 51.4 5.3 42.9 37.6 48.5 2.3

59.6 6.5 31.6 28 52 5.2 43.3 37.8 48.8 2.5

60.4 6.3 32 28.4 52.6 5 43.8 38.1 49.2 2.7

585.8 -0.7 29.2 0.1 556.6 -0.7 32.1 -8.4 127.8 -0.3 26.9 69.7 29.4 8.4 -3.8 54.2 -4.5 83.7 0.5 82.1 1.8 66.1 1.4 27.2 0.9 17.2 1.5 57.9 -1.8

588.8 0.9 29.5 0.6 559.3 0.9 31.8 -6.7 128.5 0.8 27 70.3 29.6 8.5 -1.9 54.6 -3.3 85.2 6.9 82.6 2.5 66 1.9 27.3 1.4 17 0.6 57.8 -1.4

593.3 1.6 29.6 1.5 563.7 1.6 31.8 -3.8 129.3 1.8 27.4 70.4 30.1 8.7 3 55.2 -1 87.1 8.2 83.5 3 66.1 1.2 27.3 1.3 16.9 -8.4 57.9 -0.9

598.7 2.4 29.9 2.9 568.8 2.4 32 -1.1 130.5 2.3 27.8 70.7 30.7 8.9 5.4 55.7 1.7 89.3 8.4 84.3 3.3 66 0.1 27.3 1 16.8 -3.6 58.1 0

604.6 3.2 30.4 3.9 574.2 3.2 32.4 0.9 131.9 3.2 28.2 71.4 31.3 8.9 4.9 56.2 3.8 91.5 9.3 84.9 3.4 66.1 0 27.4 0.7 16.7 -2.8 58.3 0.7

609.9 3.6 30.8 4.5 579.1 3.5 32.8 3.1 133.2 3.7 28.5 72 31.8 8.9 4.3 56.7 3.9 93 9.1 85.5 3.5 66.4 0.6 27.5 0.6 16.7 -2 58.6 1.3

615 3.7 31.1 5 583.9 3.6 33.3 4.8 134.3 3.9 28.7 72.5 32.3 8.9 2.3 57.1 3.4 94.2 8.2 86.1 3.1 66.9 1.3 27.5 0.8 16.6 -1.4 59 1.8

620.1 3.6 31.4 4.9 588.7 3.5 33.8 5.7 135.3 3.7 29 72.8 32.8 8.9 0.7 57.5 3.2 95.6 7.1 86.5 2.6 67.4 2.1 27.6 1 16.6 -1.1 59.3 2.1

624.6 3.3 31.7 4.2 592.9 3.3 34.4 6.2 136.3 3.3 29.3 73 33.2 8.9 1 57.9 2.9 96.7 5.7 86.9 2.4 67.9 2.8 27.7 1.3 16.6 -1 59.7 2.4

628.9 3.1 32 3.8 597 3.1 34.9 6.5 137.4 3.1 29.6 73.5 33.6 9 1.2 58.1 2.4 97.8 5.2 87.2 2 68.2 2.8 27.8 1.2 16.5 -0.9 60.1 2.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

589.8 -3.5 29.2 -6 560.6 -3.3 35 -11.9 128.2 -3.3 27.2 69.9 30.4 8.8 -10.1 56.7 -5.2 83.3 -4.3 80.7 0.3 65.2 -1.8 26.9 -1.8 16.9 -1.2 58.9 -1.2

583.4 -3.5 29.3 -4 554.2 -3.5 34 -10.4 127.5 -3.3 27.3 68.8 29.9 8.7 -7.8 56.4 -5.3 79.7 -7.3 80.6 0.8 64.8 -2.6 26.9 1.1 16.9 -1.2 58.7 -0.8

584.1 -2.6 29.1 -3 554.9 -2.5 33 -9.7 127 -3.1 27.1 68.9 29.5 8.5 -8.4 55.8 -3.8 80.5 -5.4 81.1 0.2 65.3 -0.6 26.9 1.4 18.4 7.4 58.5 -1.3

47626.3 47602.5 47868.8 48086.6 48268.9 48563.5 49010.8 49557.8 50153.4 50693.6 51228.8 51735.2 52199.2 52583.7 1344.4 1342.9 1342.8 1343.9 1346 1348 1350 1352.5 1355.6 1359.2 1364 1369.2 1374.5 1380.2 1.8 1.3 1 0.9 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.5 675 672.3 672 672.2 673.3 675 676.4 677.9 680.1 682.4 684.9 687.6 690.5 693.9 -1.8 -2.4 -2.3 -1.1 -0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 10.7 11.8 11.6 11.5 11.5 11.3 11.1 10.7 10.3 10.1 9.8 9.4 9.2 8.9 4537 4998 5467 5797 6417 7332 8414 9504 10434 11102 11763 12395 12765 13047 4247 4625 5097 5356 5991 6834 7815 8627 9312 9667 10110 10428 10522 10565 290 373 370 442 425 498 598 877 1122 1434 1654 1967 2244 2482

*Quarterly at an annual rate

42

584.6 -1.6 29.1 -1.5 555.5 -1.6 32.4 -10.6 127.5 -1.5 27.1 69.3 29.4 8.4 -6.6 54.8 -4.3 82.4 -1.8 81.6 1.5 65.9 1.1 27.1 0.4 17.4 1.5 58.1 -1.7

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

J ac k s o n v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

December 2009 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

36 4.6 20.8 15.2 34.8 3.2 30.6 29.6 35.3 4.5

38.3 6.5 22.4 16 36.4 4.4 32 30.4 37.8 7.1

41.7 8.7 23.9 17.8 38.5 5.9 34 31.4 39.3 3.8

45.4 8.9 25.6 19.8 40.8 5.8 36.3 32.6 40.5 3.2

50.1 10.4 27.9 22.2 43.8 7.4 39.2 34.2 43 6

51.9 3.6 29 23 44.2 0.9 40 34 44.1 2.8

52.6 1.3 28.9 23.7 43.3 -2 40 32.9 44.9 1.8

51.3 -2.5 27.7 23.5 43.3 -0.1 38.5 32.5 44.8 -0.4

52.2 1.8 28.1 24.1 47.1 8.8 38.8 35 46.2 3.3

54.7 4.8 29.3 25.4 48.6 3.3 40.5 36 47.3 2.4

58.2 6.4 30.9 27.3 51.1 5 42.6 37.4 48.4 2.2

61.8 6.1 32.7 29.1 53.5 4.7 44.5 38.5 49.8 2.9

626.2 3.1 33.3 -0.8 592.9 3.3 50.1 10.3 136.9 3.1 29.9 74.8 32.2 11.1 -6.8 59.8 0.9 96.8 5.5 74.5 4.5 62.1 2.9 27.6 3.1 16.9 -2.6 57 0

633.8 1.2 32.6 -2.2 601.2 1.4 49.2 -1.7 139.2 1.7 30.2 76.5 32.5 10.1 -8.5 60.1 0.5 94.3 -2.6 77.9 4.6 65.9 6.1 28.2 2.3 17 0.6 59.1 3.7

621.1 -2 31.8 -2.4 589.3 -2 42.9 -13 135.9 -2.3 28.7 75.4 31.8 9.9 -2.2 60.5 0.6 88.4 -6.2 80.4 3.2 66.7 1.2 27.8 -1.8 17.1 0.3 59.8 1.1

597 -3.9 29.8 -6.2 567.2 -3.8 36.5 -14.9 130.1 -4.3 27.6 71.6 30.7 9.1 -8.2 57.9 -4.3 84.6 -4.3 80.5 0.1 65.6 -1.6 26.8 -3.5 17.1 0.1 59.1 -1.1

584.5 -2.1 29.2 -2.1 555.3 -2.1 32.9 -9.8 127.4 -2.1 27.1 69.2 29.5 8.5 -6.7 55.3 -4.5 81.6 -3.5 81.3 1.1 65.5 -0.2 27 0.9 17.5 2.3 58.3 -1.4

596.3 2 29.8 2.2 566.5 2 32 -2.8 130 2 27.6 70.7 30.4 8.7 2.8 55.4 0.3 88.3 8.2 83.8 3.1 66 0.8 27.3 1.1 16.8 -3.6 58 -0.4

617.4 3.5 31.2 4.7 586.2 3.5 33.6 4.9 134.8 3.7 28.9 72.6 32.5 8.9 2.1 57.3 3.4 94.9 7.5 86.2 2.9 67.1 1.7 27.6 0.9 16.6 -1.4 59.1 1.9

635.3 2.9 32.3 3.5 603 2.9 35.7 6.2 138.9 3 29.9 74.2 34.1 9 1.3 58.3 1.8 99.7 5 87.8 1.9 68.6 2.2 27.9 1 16.5 -0.8 60.6 2.5

40332.8 43104.1 44934.6 47030.4 49852.4 49604.8 48610.6 47285.3 47956.7 49321.4 51464.2 1175 1198.1 1225.2 1251.5 1278.7 1299.4 1315.2 1332.8 1343.9 1351.5 1366.7 2.1 2 2.3 2.2 2.2 1.6 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.6 1.1 597.5 599.4 607.5 628.5 649.8 670 684.4 682.9 672.4 677.4 686.4 0.3 0.3 1.3 3.5 3.4 3.1 2.1 -0.2 -1.5 0.7 1.3 5.3 5 4.6 3.7 3.3 3.8 5.8 10 11.6 10.9 9.6 14252 15042 17883 23879 16715 10512 7225 4869 5670 8921 12006 11058 12825 13858 18655 12256 7476 5318 3566 5267 8147 10182 3194 2217 4024 5224 4459 3036 1908 1303 403 774 1825

53177 1389 1.6 699.2 1.9 8.7 13413 10726 2687

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

561.5 -1 34.4 -4.9 527.1 -0.7 34.1 3.6 124.4 -0.9 25.9 68.1 30.4 13.2 -8.1 57.7 -0.3 86.1 -8.2 63.5 4 52.5 2.8 24.9 4.6 17.7 0.2 52.8 0.5

564.5 0.5 33.3 -3.1 531.2 0.8 36.7 7.4 125 0.4 26.8 68.8 29.4 12.4 -6.1 57.6 -0.1 84.1 -2.3 64.7 1.9 53.3 1.6 25.7 3 18 1.5 53.6 1.7

582 3.1 33.3 -0.3 548.7 3.3 40.9 11.5 128.1 2.5 26.9 71.2 30.1 11.6 -6.4 58.4 1.4 85.9 2.2 67.9 5 56.3 5.5 26.4 2.6 17.8 -1.3 55.4 3.3

607.4 4.4 33.5 0.9 573.9 4.6 45.4 11 132.7 3.6 27.8 73.9 31.1 11.9 2.4 59.3 1.5 91.7 6.7 71.3 4.9 60.4 7.3 26.8 1.5 17.4 -2.2 57.1 3

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

43

La k e l a n d

P r o fi l e s The Lakeland MSA is comprised only of Polk County. It is located in the western center of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus.

It is home to a few attractions, including Cypress Gardens and Fantasy of Flight. Also, the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians conduct spring training in Lakeland and Winter Haven, respectively.

Quick Facts:

• Population estimate of 574,746 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 267,983 in January 2008 (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• An unemployment rate of 4.8% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted.

This amounts to 12,734 unemployed people.

(Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 6,644 employees

• Lakeland Regional Medical Center – 4,540 employees • City of Lakeland Government – 2,600 employees • GEICO – 1,850 employees

• Watson Clinic – 1,500 employees • GC Services – 1,000 employees

• Summit Consulting – 1,000 employees • Rooms To Go – 900 employees

• FedEx National LTL – 850 employees

• Saddle Creek Corporation – 680 employees

Source: Lakeland Economic Development Council

44

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Lakeland MSA will show modest growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 4.4 percent annually, while the per capita income level will be at 28.6, the second lowest in the state. Average annual wage growth should be 2.1 percent, tied for lowest in the state, and the average annual wage level is expected to be at 39.3, also one of the lowest in the state. Population growth is expected to be the second highest in the state, averaging an annual growth rate of 1.6 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 13,628.78 (Mill).

Employment growth is expected to be 1.0 percent annually. The unemployment rate for the metro will average 10.2 percent.

The Manufacturing sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging a 2.0 percent average annual growth rate. This is followed by the Education and Health Services sector, averaging a growth rate of 1.7 percent a year, and the Trade, Transportation, and Utility sector at 1.6 percent. Construction & Mining and the Federal Government are the only sectors that will experience declines, with annual growth rates of -0.9 percent and -1.6 percent respectively.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s USF Poly student plan OK’d • The Florida Board of Governors approved an expansion of University of South Florida Polytechnic to a full four-year program. The school will open its doors to freshman and sophomores in 2012.

• USF Poly is expected to break ground on its new $46.5 million, 100,000-square-foot science and technology building in Polk County before the end of this year. University officials expect enrollment to peak at 16,000 students, compared to current enrollment of just over 4,200.

La k e l a n d

• The university is anticipated to attract new companies to Polk County, generating more high-paying jobs for a skilled workforce.

Source: The Lakeland Ledger, October 6, 2009 Mosaic plans resort facility in Polk County • Mosaic Co. has announced plans to build a luxury resort on over 16,000 acres of reclaimed phosphate land west of Fort Meade.

• While still in the planning stage, the resort would be an estimated $50 to $80 million investment in the community.

• According to the company’s estimate, the project would create 250 to 280 full-time jobs in Polk County.

Source: The Lakeland Ledger, November 16, 2009 Polk braces for class size change • Starting next year, the class-size amendment to the Florida Constitution will apply to all “core” classes, limiting the number of students a class can hold.

• Polk County School Board members and district officials said the county will have to hire 300 to 600 new teachers just to teach a handful of students. Schools may run out of classrooms, and classes may be broken up several times a year.

• School Board members, who believe the amendment is expensive, say it will have a disastrous impact on education and will be “almost impossible” to implement.

Source: The Lakeland Ledger, November 18, 2009

Regenesis Power brings session on solar opportunities to Lakeland • Over the summer, Lakeland Electric teamed with Regenesis Power to offer their customers a chance to have solar water heating without having to invest thousands into their own system.

• Open to homeowners, the program makes it possible for residents to lock-in long-term rates that will not rise for as long as they live in their home.

• Lakeland Electric hopes to have 20,000 solar water heating systems installed during the next 20 years. “It is the fastest and most efficient way to move toward renewable energy and results in the greatest net benefit for the Lakeland community as a whole,” the company said in a release.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, November 23, 2009 Hot deals, cool shoppers • Like the rest of the country, Lakeland shoppers left their holiday dinners to camp outside retail stores to get the best deals on Black Friday.

• Lakeland Square Mall officially opened at 6 a.m., but most of the stores opened early because of the number of people lined up outside. By 8 a.m., 90% of the mall’s 4,450 spaces were full.

By noon, traffic in the mall was up nearly 30% from last year.

• Overall, local retailers were happy with the results of Black Friday and show optimism as shoppers spend a little more this holiday season.

Source: The Lakeland Ledger, November 27, 2009

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

45

La k e l a n d

Lakeland MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.5

1

Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product 15000.0

6.0%

12000.0

4.0%

11000.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate

10000.0

Lakeland Payroll Employment (Thousands)

210.0 200.0 190.0 180.0 170.0 160.0

46

2.5

(Millions 2000 $)

13000.0

8.0%

220.0

2

14000.0

10.0%

2.0%

1.5

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Lakeland Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Lakeland Real Personal Income 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income

La k e l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL*

December 2009 Forecast

2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

18.1 -2.3 7.5 10.6 16.4 7.3 30.2 27.3 37.5 -0.2

18 -0.3 7.4 10.6 16.3 9 30.2 27.3 37.8 2.3

18.2 0.7 7.5 10.8 16.5 10.4 30.5 27.5 38.1 2.9

18.5 2.1 7.5 10.9 16.6 12.3 30.8 27.7 38.4 3.1

18.6 3 7.6 11 16.7 2.1 30.9 27.8 38.5 2.6

18.8 4.2 7.6 11.2 16.8 2.9 31.2 27.9 38.7 2.3

19 4.4 7.7 11.3 16.9 2.8 31.5 28 38.8 1.8

19.3 4.6 7.8 11.5 17.1 3 31.8 28.2 38.9 1.4

19.6 5.3 7.9 11.7 17.3 3.8 32.2 28.5 39.1 1.4

19.9 5.8 7.9 12 17.5 4.3 32.6 28.7 39.2 1.5

20.2 6.2 8 12.2 17.8 4.8 32.9 28.9 39.4 1.6

20.5 6.3 8.1 12.4 18 4.9 33.2 29.1 39.6 1.7

20.8 6 8.2 12.6 18.1 4.7 33.4 29.2 39.8 1.9

21 5.7 8.3 12.7 18.3 4.4 33.7 29.3 40.1 2.1

195.4 -1.1 14.9 0.1 180.5 -1.2 10.5 -9 44.2 -0.3 8.9 22.9 11.3 1.8 -2.6 11 -4.6 28.6 -2.7 30.5 2.2 16.1 0.5 8.4 0.2 1.3 1.6 28.1 -1.8

196.1 0.3 15 0.8 181.1 0.2 10.4 -7.2 44.5 0.8 8.9 23.1 11.4 1.8 -0.2 11.1 -3.5 28.8 2.8 30.7 2.4 16 1.1 8.4 0.7 1.3 -0.8 28.1 -1.6

197.2 1.1 15.1 1.8 182.1 1 10.4 -4.2 44.8 1.8 9.1 23.2 11.6 1.9 4.3 11.2 -1.4 29.1 3.9 31 2.6 16 0.5 8.4 0.6 1.3 -9.2 28.1 -1.1

198.6 1.7 15.2 3 183.4 1.6 10.5 -1.5 45.2 2.4 9.2 23.3 11.8 1.9 5.9 11.3 1.3 29.5 4 31.2 2.6 16 -0.4 8.4 0.3 1.2 -4.7 28.2 -0.2

200.1 2.4 15.5 3.9 184.6 2.3 10.6 0.5 45.7 3.3 9.3 23.6 12.1 1.9 5 11.4 3.3 29.9 4.6 31.3 2.6 16 -0.4 8.4 0.1 1.2 -3.4 28.3 0.5

201.1 2.6 15.7 4.3 185.5 2.4 10.7 2.8 46.1 3.7 9.4 23.8 12.3 1.9 4.4 11.5 3.2 29.9 3.8 31.3 2.2 16 0.1 8.4 0 1.2 -2.2 28.4 1.1

202.4 2.7 15.8 4.9 186.6 2.5 10.8 4.3 46.5 3.9 9.5 24 12.4 1.9 2.8 11.5 2.8 30 3.1 31.5 1.7 16.1 0.6 8.4 0.1 1.2 -1.2 28.6 1.6

203.7 2.6 16 4.7 187.7 2.4 11 5.1 46.8 3.7 9.6 24 12.6 1.9 1.5 11.6 2.8 30.2 2.2 31.6 1.3 16.2 1.4 8.4 0.3 1.2 -1 28.7 1.9

204.8 2.4 16.1 4.1 188.7 2.2 11.1 5.2 47.2 3.2 9.7 24.1 12.8 1.9 1.8 11.7 2.6 30.3 1.5 31.6 1.1 16.3 2 8.5 0.5 1.2 -0.8 28.9 2.2

205.9 2.3 16.2 3.7 189.6 2.2 11.3 5.8 47.5 3 9.7 24.2 13 1.9 1.8 11.7 2.1 30.5 1.9 31.6 1 16.3 1.8 8.5 0.5 1.2 -0.8 29 2.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

197.6 -3.9 14.9 -7.9 182.8 -3.6 11.6 -11 44.3 -5.3 9 23.2 11.6 1.8 -8.3 11.6 -2.6 29.3 -7 29.9 1.9 16 -2.6 8.4 -2.1 1.3 -7.5 28.6 -0.2

195.5 -3.7 14.9 -5 180.6 -3.6 11.2 -10.3 44.1 -4.3 9 22.6 11.4 1.8 -8 11.5 -2.3 28 -7.9 29.9 1.2 15.9 -2.8 8.4 -1.5 1.3 -5.4 28.5 -0.8

195.1 -2.6 14.8 -2.5 180.3 -2.6 10.9 -10.2 44 -3.5 9 22.6 11.3 1.8 -7.2 11.4 -2.7 28 -5.9 30.2 1.9 16 -0.5 8.4 -1.4 1.4 6.3 28.4 -0.8

195.2 -1.9 14.8 -1.6 180.5 -2 10.6 -11.1 44.1 -1.5 8.9 22.7 11.3 1.8 -5.7 11.2 -4.1 28.4 -4 30.4 2.1 16.1 0.1 8.4 -0.2 1.3 1.4 28.2 -1.7

12991.8 12979.8 13033.9 13081.9 13115.2 13188.9 13288.5 13417.6 13558.6 13672.5 13799.7 13919.4 14027.9 14111.4 598 597.9 598.5 599.6 601.6 603.3 605 606.7 608.8 611.2 614.3 617.6 620.8 624.1 2.3 2 1.7 1.5 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.8 2 2.1 269.6 269 269 269.1 269.4 269.7 269.8 270.1 270.5 271.1 272.1 272.9 273.9 275 -2.2 -2.3 -2.1 -0.8 -0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 1 1.3 1.4 11.8 12 11.8 11.7 11.6 11.3 11 10.7 10.3 10.1 9.8 9.4 9.1 8.9 1530 1884 2304 2576 3036 3661 4383 5053 5465 5702 5975 6196 6267 6255 1526 1873 2284 2543 2990 3582 4273 4908 5298 5495 5741 5921 5960 5931 5 12 20 32 46 80 110 146 168 207 233 275 307 325

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

47

La k e l a n d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

December 2009 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

12.8 2.8 5.9 6.9 12.4 1.5 25.6 24.8 31.8 2

13.5 5.4 6.2 7.3 12.8 3.3 26.5 25.1 33.3 4.5

14.9 10.3 6.6 8.2 13.8 7.5 28.5 26.3 33.7 1.5

16.3 9.8 7.3 9 14.7 6.6 30.2 27.1 35.1 4

17.7 8.4 7.9 9.9 15.5 5.5 31.7 27.7 36.8 4.8

18.3 3.4 8 10.3 15.6 0.7 31.9 27.2 37.3 1.4

18.6 1.4 7.9 10.7 15.3 -1.9 31.9 26.3 37.6 0.8

18.1 -2.6 7.5 10.6 15.3 -0.1 30.6 25.8 37.2 -1.1

18.3 1.4 7.5 10.8 16.5 8.3 30.6 27.6 38.2 2.7

19.2 4.6 7.7 11.4 17.1 3.1 31.7 28.1 38.9 1.7

20.3 6.1 8.1 12.3 17.8 4.7 33 29 39.5 1.7

21.4 5.3 8.4 13 18.6 4 34 29.5 40.4 2.3

212.6 2.2 17.9 -2.2 194.8 2.6 16.9 4.1 48.9 2.8 10.4 26.1 12.5 2.4 2.9 11.6 4.1 33.9 -0.8 26.6 4.2 17 2.7 9.5 5.5 1.4 -0.6 26.7 2.6

212.7 0.1 17.2 -3.5 195.5 0.4 15.8 -6.5 49 0.1 10.1 26.4 12.5 2.2 -7.8 11.8 2.4 33 -2.5 28 5.2 17.4 2.9 9 -5.3 1.4 1.2 27.9 4.3

208.5 -2 16.3 -5.2 192.2 -1.7 13.7 -13.4 47.7 -2.6 9.6 26.2 12 2.1 -4.3 12 1.2 32 -3 29.1 3.9 17.1 -1.8 8.6 -3.9 1.4 -0.1 28.4 2

200 -4.1 15.2 -7.1 184.8 -3.8 12 -12.1 45.2 -5.3 9.1 24.4 11.5 1.9 -7.9 11.7 -2.6 29.8 -7 29.7 2.1 16.1 -6.1 8.4 -2.2 1.3 -6.5 28.7 0.9

195.3 -2.3 14.8 -2.3 180.5 -2.4 10.8 -10.2 44.1 -2.4 9 22.7 11.3 1.8 -5.9 11.3 -3.4 28.2 -5.1 30.2 1.8 16 -0.7 8.4 -0.7 1.3 0.9 28.3 -1.3

198 1.4 15.2 2.4 182.8 1.3 10.5 -3.2 45 2.1 9.1 23.3 11.7 1.9 3.7 11.3 -0.1 29.3 3.8 31 2.6 16 0.2 8.4 0.4 1.3 -4.6 28.2 -0.6

203 2.5 15.9 4.5 187.1 2.4 10.9 4.3 46.7 3.6 9.5 24 12.5 1.9 2.6 11.6 2.9 30.1 2.6 31.5 1.5 16.2 1 8.4 0.2 1.2 -1.3 28.6 1.7

207.4 2.2 16.4 3.4 191 2.1 11.5 5.5 48 2.9 9.9 24.4 13.2 1.9 1.7 11.8 1.5 30.7 1.9 31.8 0.9 16.4 1.2 8.5 0.3 1.2 -1.2 29.3 2.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

48

182.9 -0.3 18.4 -2.2 164.4 -0.1 13.6 -2.8 44 -3 8.5 25 10.4 2.4 -4.9 10.8 5.3 21.6 1.8 22.5 -1.3 15.8 4.8 7.4 5.1 1.4 3 24.9 0.1

184.7 1 18.1 -1.9 166.6 1.3 12.9 -5.1 42.1 -4.2 9.1 22.5 10.5 2.2 -7.9 11 2 26.4 22.2 22.9 1.7 15 -5.4 7.5 0.9 1.4 -3 25.3 1.6

195.6 5.9 18.2 0.6 177.4 6.5 14.4 11.4 43.9 4.3 9.4 23.5 11 2.2 -1.1 10.9 -1 31.7 20 24.1 5.3 15.3 2.2 8 7.6 1.3 -2.4 25.5 1

208.1 6.4 18.3 0.4 189.8 7 16.2 12.6 47.6 8.4 10.3 25.3 12.1 2.3 3 11.1 1.8 34.2 8 25.6 6.1 16.5 7.7 9 11.9 1.4 4.4 26 2

11226.6 11659.2 12187.9 13013.5 13459.8 13271.9 13184.5 12881.7 13052.7 13363.4 13854.9 14244.1 499.5 509.5 522.9 540.3 558.6 573.4 581.6 590.9 599.4 606 616 629.2 1.5 2 2.6 3.3 3.4 2.6 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.7 2.1 238.1 239.7 247.4 254.2 260.6 266.4 272.8 272.8 269.1 270 272.5 276.7 0.8 0.7 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.4 0 -1.3 0.3 0.9 1.6 5.8 5.5 4.9 4 3.6 4.5 6.7 11.4 11.8 10.8 9.6 8.6 4907 6789 9088 12877 9528 4384 3223 1290 2450 4641 6035 6385 4484 6169 8297 11725 8279 4004 2431 1287 2423 4515 5779 6028 423 620 790 1152 1249 380 792 3 28 126 256 356

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

Mia m i – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – Mia m i B each

P r o fi l e s The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Miami Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, this area is home to many sports teams, such as the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins, and the Florida Panthers. Other major businesses also reside in this metro, including the Miami Seaquarium, the University of Miami, and Florida International University.

Quick Facts: • • • • • •

Metro area population estimate of 5,413,212 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,387,170 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) Broward County population estimate of 1,759,591 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau)

Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,266,451 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau)

A civilian labor force of 2,821,912 in January 2008 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database)

An unemployment rate of 4% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 114,108 unemployed people for the metro area.

(Florida Research and Economic Database)

Top Area Employers: • Miami-Dade County Public School – 54,387 employees • Miami-Dade County – 32,265 employees • Federal Government – 20,100 employees • Florida State Government – 18,900 employees • Jackson Health System – 11,700 employees • Baptist Health South Florida – 10,300 employees • University of Miami – 9,367 employees • American Airlines – 9,000 employees • United Parcel Service – 5,000 employees • BellSouth – 4,800 employees Source: Greater Miami Chamber of Commerce

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Miami Beach area is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 4.3 percent annually, and the per capita income level, at 40.8, is the second highest in Florida. Average annual wage growth will be 2.5 percent. The average annual wage level is expected to be 50.6, the highest in the state. Miami is expected to average population growth of 0.6 percent each year. The area ranked first in the state for Gross Metro Product at a level of 227,543.85 (Mill).

Employment is expected to grow at an average rate of 1.3 percent each year, while unemployment is expected to be among the highest in the state at 11.1 percent.

Miami’s fastest growing sector is expected to be the Professional & Business Services sector at 4.6 percent annually, followed by Manufacturing at an average of 1.8 percent growth each year. The sectors that will experience the greatest declines are Construction & Mining, with a -0.9 percent growth rate, and the Federal Government sector, with a -1.2 percent growth rate.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s South Florida hotels’ stress could lure buyers • Hotels across the Miami area are suffering fates similar to that of the Shore Club, a South Beach hotel that saw a 113% drop in profits for summer 2009.

• Miami hotels that have taken out loans in the past four years are seeing the biggest troubles, a problem that many experts say could still cause a crash in the financial system.

• The market for expensive Miami hotel rooms has also seen a steep decline in the face of the recession, forcing businesses to revert room rates to 2006 levels.

Source: Miami Herald, November 3, 2009

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

49

Mia m i – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – Mia m i B each

Consumer prices in Miami-Ft. Lauderdale slip 0.6% • The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 0.6% drop in Miami-Ft. Lauderdale metropolitan prices in October versus one year ago.

• This figure came amid steep declines in apparel, recreation, and transportation costs for the area.

• The consumer price index, released bi-monthly, found that prices in the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale area were up 0.5% from August 2009.

Source: Miami Herald, November 18, 2009 Rise in bookings may signal rebound for South Florida hotels • Many believe that the discounted rates and low occupancy that have plagued the South Florida hotel industry may soon begin to wane with the advent of “high tourism season” this winter.

• Large reductions in travel spending haven’t stopped Miami hotels from raising rates during the Art Basel Miami Beach. The same room at the hotel “Delano” that goes for $825 during the week of the event will go for $345 next week.

• Many hotel managers, such as Peter Zahora, are looking to the future with optimism. Zahora asserted, “it looks like the slide [in rates and bookings] is either slowing down or reversing.’’

Source: Miami Herald, December 1, 2009 Art Basel opens with pomp and optimism.

• Vendors and art buffs alike have kicked off this year’s Miami Art Basel with optimism as collectors have begun making sizable purchases and observers enjoy the atmospheric buzz of the annual art festival.

• Last year’s event suffered in the midst of the darkest portion of the recession, causing art sales to slump.

50

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

• Some collectors such as Martin Margulies rationalize purchasing expensive works of art in a struggling economy saying, “The dollar is low.

It’s a safe place to put money–if you know what you’re doing.’’

Source: Miami Herald, December 2, 2009 Unions balking at county furloughs despite budget deal • The difficult task of bridging a $109 million budget deficit gap prompted county commissioners to propose a five day furlough for the 5,900 employees who work at the airport, seaport, parks, libraries and other agencies.

• The proposal is part of an effort to cut Brevard County government services and keep property taxes at their current rate.

• An instrumental union has already rejected the furlough proposal, and other unions are skeptical.

• Rejection of the furlough could create a $6.3 million hole in the county’s 3 billion dollar budget. Officials will be meeting behind closed doors to try to mitigate the crisis.

Source: Miami Herald, December 3, 2009

Mia m i – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – Mia m i B each Miami - Ford Lauderdale - Miami Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

1.2

1.4

1.6

260000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

240000.0

200000.0 180000.0 160000.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

2400.0 2300.0 2200.0 2100.0 2000.0

1

Miami Real Gross Metro Product

140000.0

Miami Payroll Employment 2500.0

0.8

220000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.4

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Miami Payroll Employment

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Miami Real Personal Income 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

51

Mia m i – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – Mia m i B each

Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL*

December 2009 Forecast

2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

231.7 -2.5 108.7 123 209.9 7 42.1 38.2 47.9 0

232 -0.5 108.7 123.4 210.1 8.8 42.3 38.3 48.3 2.5

234.7 1 109.6 125.1 212.2 10.6 42.9 38.8 48.8 3.2

237.6 2.5 110.7 126.9 214 12.6 43.5 39.2 49.2 3.6

239.4 3.3 111.5 127.9 214.9 2.4 43.8 39.3 49.4 3.1

241.7 4.2 112.6 129.1 216 2.8 44.2 39.5 49.7 2.7

244.4 4.1 113.7 130.7 217.7 2.6 44.7 39.8 49.9 2.2

247.6 4.2 115 132.6 219.6 2.6 45.2 40.1 50.1 1.8

251.1 4.9 116.5 134.7 222 3.3 45.8 40.5 50.3 1.8

254.8 5.4 117.9 136.9 224.5 3.9 46.4 40.9 50.6 1.8

258.8 5.9 119.3 139.4 227.4 4.4 47 41.3 50.8 2

262.5 6 120.8 141.7 229.9 4.7 47.6 41.7 51.1 2.1

265.8 5.8 122.3 143.5 232.1 4.5 48.1 42 51.4 2.3

269.2 5.6 124 145.3 234.3 4.4 48.5 42.2 51.8 2.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2255.1 -3.2 84.2 -7.1 2171 -3 105.6 -15.5 512.7 -3.3 145 272.9 92.3 46.7 -5.4 161.2 -4.2 340.4 -2.8 330.5 -0.9 249 -1.5 101.9 -1.5 33.1 -2.7 289.8 -0.4

2234.2 -3.2 84.4 -5.5 2149.8 -3.1 102.5 -14.4 509.6 -3.2 145.1 267.9 90.9 46.1 -5.9 160.4 -4.2 330.5 -3.7 329.8 -1 247.3 -2.5 101.6 0.3 33.8 -0.6 288.2 -0.8

2234.7 -1.9 84 -3.2 2150.7 -1.8 99.3 -11.9 507.6 -3.2 144 267.9 89.8 44.9 -6.7 158.4 -3.7 334.7 -1.5 331.5 0.7 249 0.7 101.6 -0.1 36.8 9 286.8 -0.7

2239 -1.4 83.8 -1.6 2155.3 -1.4 97.2 -11.1 508.8 -1.9 143.3 269.3 89.3 44.9 -5.6 155.5 -4.5 342.9 0 333.4 1.2 251.2 0.7 102 0 34.7 3.1 284.7 -2.2

2243.3 -0.5 84.1 -0.1 2159.2 -0.5 96.1 -9 509.1 -0.7 142.3 270.7 89.2 45.4 -2.7 153.7 -4.7 349 2.5 335 1.4 251.5 1 102.4 0.5 33.5 1.2 283.5 -2.2

2252.8 0.8 84.7 0.3 2168.1 0.9 94.9 -7.4 510.8 0.2 142.3 272.6 89.7 45.9 -0.3 154.6 -3.6 355.4 7.5 336.7 2.1 251.2 1.6 102.6 1 33.1 -1.9 282.8 -1.9

2267 1.4 84.9 1.1 2182.1 1.5 94.9 -4.5 513.2 1.1 144.1 272.4 91.1 46.8 4.1 155.9 -1.5 362.5 8.3 339.6 2.4 251 0.8 102.6 0.9 32.8 -10.8 282.9 -1.3

2284.1 2 85.8 2.5 2198.2 2 95.5 -1.7 516.9 1.6 146.1 273.4 92.7 47.4 5.5 157.1 1 370.6 8.1 341.7 2.5 250.5 -0.3 102.6 0.6 32.7 -5.8 283.4 -0.4

2302.2 2.6 87.2 3.7 2215.1 2.6 96.5 0.4 521.5 2.4 147.8 275.6 94.5 47.4 4.4 158.3 3 378.7 8.5 343.2 2.4 250.3 -0.5 102.8 0.4 32.5 -3 284 0.2

2318.3 2.9 88.3 4.3 2230 2.9 97.7 2.9 525.3 2.8 148.9 277.3 95.8 47.6 3.6 159.3 3 383.9 8 344.8 2.4 251.2 0 103 0.3 32.4 -2.2 284.9 0.8

2334.7 3 89.1 4.9 2245.6 2.9 99.4 4.8 528.8 3 150 279 96.9 47.7 2 160.1 2.7 388.3 7.1 346.5 2 252.7 0.7 103.1 0.5 32.3 -1.5 286.5 1.3

2350.4 2.9 90 4.8 2260.5 2.8 101.1 5.9 531.6 2.9 151 279.4 98.2 47.7 0.7 161.2 2.6 393.6 6.2 347.6 1.7 254.2 1.5 103.4 0.7 32.2 -1.5 287.8 1.6

2364.8 2.7 90.7 4.1 2274.1 2.7 102.8 6.5 534.4 2.5 152.2 280 99.2 47.9 1.1 161.9 2.3 397.4 4.9 348.6 1.6 255.8 2.2 103.7 0.9 32.1 -1.1 289.3 1.9

2378.1 2.6 91.5 3.6 2286.6 2.5 104.6 7 537.5 2.3 153.3 281.1 100.2 48.2 1.3 162.2 1.8 401.2 4.5 349.5 1.4 256.8 2.2 103.9 0.9 32.1 -1 290.7 2

215666 5499.4 1.3 2837.8 -0.8 11.1 5119 2886 2233

215853 5480.3 0.9 2824.2 -0.8 12.8 6374 4071 2303

217048 5469.5 0.5 2816.4 -1.5 12.7 7427 5338 2089

218047 5465.6 0.4 2811 -1.6 12.6 7660 5314 2345

218764 5467.8 -0.6 2810.6 -1 12.6 8208 6195 2013

220034 5470.6 -0.2 2810.7 -0.5 12.4 9831 7938 1893

221822 5472.6 0.1 2808.9 -0.3 12.1 12185 10130 2054

223990 5476.5 0.2 2808.7 -0.1 11.7 15367 12318 3049

226355 5481.3 0.2 2811.7 0 11.3 18131 13965 4166

228468 5488.1 0.3 2816.4 0.2 11 20815 15300 5515

230630 5501.4 0.5 2822.7 0.5 10.6 23176 16563 6612

232642 5515.8 0.7 2829.9 0.8 10.3 25768 17697 8071

234484 5531.2 0.9 2838.1 0.9 10 27841 18395 9446

235913 5547.3 1.1 2846.8 1.1 9.7 29760 18981 10779

*Quarterly at an annual rate

52

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

Mia m i – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – Mia m i B each

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

December 2009 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

174.2 4.4 85.4 88.9 168.7 3 33.5 32.5 38.6 3

179.7 3.1 89.5 90.2 170.5 1.1 34.2 32.5 40.3 4.6

195.6 8.8 95.6 100 180.8 6 36.8 34 41.9 3.7

211.9 8.4 103.5 108.4 190.3 5.2 39.4 35.4 43.7 4.4

229.9 8.5 110.6 119.3 200.8 5.6 42.6 37.2 45.8 4.8

237.3 3.2 114.3 123 201.9 0.5 44 37.4 47 2.7

239.3 0.9 113.5 125.8 197.1 -2.4 44.2 36.4 47.7 1.5

232.4 -2.9 108.7 123.6 196.2 -0.4 42.6 36 47.5 -0.6

236 1.5 110.1 125.8 212.8 8.5 43.1 38.9 48.9 3.1

246.2 4.3 114.4 131.8 218.8 2.8 45 40 50 2.1

260.5 5.8 120.1 140.4 228.5 4.4 47.3 41.5 51 2

274.7 5.5 126.3 148.4 237.9 4.1 49.3 42.7 52.4 2.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2198.7 -0.2 112.4 -8.6 2086.3 0.3 120.9 -1 516.4 -1.5 132.4 286.8 97.1 61.8 -6.1 162.8 1.8 324.2 0.1 274.6 4.1 225 -1.1 94 0.3 32.1 1.3 274.7 2.5

2204.7 0.3 103.4 -8 2101.3 0.7 122.4 1.2 510.9 -1.1 134.3 282.7 93.9 57.5 -6.9 164.3 1 325.6 0.4 284 3.4 229.4 2 95.8 1.9 34.1 6.2 277.4 1

2270.1 3 100.8 -2.5 2169.3 3.2 131.5 7.5 517.4 1.3 138.7 285.6 93.2 56.6 -1.6 170 3.5 348.4 7 293.5 3.4 240.3 4.7 97.7 2 34.2 0.4 279.8 0.9

2355.1 3.7 101.1 0.3 2253.9 3.9 147.4 12.1 530.5 2.5 141.2 294 95.3 55.9 -1.1 178.2 4.8 375.1 7.7 301.5 2.7 247.5 3 99 1.3 34.5 1 284.2 1.6

2401 2 100.6 -0.5 2300.4 2.1 164.3 11.5 543.8 2.5 144.6 303.4 95.7 53.2 -4.8 183.5 2.9 375.7 0.2 307.9 2.1 251.6 1.7 99.3 0.3 34 -1.4 287.1 1

2416.5 0.6 98.6 -2 2318 0.8 161.1 -2 550 1.1 147.6 306 96.5 52 -2.4 181.3 -1.2 371.1 -1.2 318.8 3.5 257.9 2.5 100.8 1.5 34 -0.2 291.1 1.4

2364.7 -2.1 93.2 -5.5 2271.5 -2 135.5 -15.9 541.6 -1.5 145.3 300.5 95.8 50.4 -3 172.2 -5 356.5 -3.9 328.8 3.1 257.4 -0.2 103.6 2.8 34 0.1 291.6 0.2

2278.1 -3.7 86.4 -7.3 2191.7 -3.5 111.9 -17.4 520.7 -3.9 144.9 282.2 92.8 47.8 -5.1 164 -4.8 341.6 -4.2 330.5 0.5 249.8 -2.9 101.7 -1.8 33.6 -1.1 290.1 -0.5

2237.8 -1.8 84.1 -2.7 2153.7 -1.7 98.8 -11.7 508.8 -2.3 143.6 269 89.8 45.3 -5.2 157 -4.3 339.3 -0.7 332.4 0.6 249.7 0 101.9 0.2 34.7 3.2 285.8 -1.5

2276.5 1.7 85.6 1.9 2190.9 1.7 95.5 -3.4 515.6 1.3 145.1 273.5 92 46.9 3.4 156.5 -0.3 366.8 8.1 340.3 2.4 250.7 0.4 102.7 0.7 32.8 -5.5 283.3 -0.9

2342.1 2.9 89.5 4.5 2252.5 2.8 100.3 5 530.1 2.8 150.5 278.9 97.5 47.7 1.8 160.6 2.6 390.8 6.6 346.9 1.9 253.5 1.1 103.3 0.6 32.3 -1.6 287.1 1.4

2397.7 2.4 92.4 3.3 2305.3 2.3 107 6.7 541.9 2.2 154.8 282.9 101.6 48.3 1.2 162.5 1.2 407.6 4.3 351.5 1.3 257.7 1.7 104 0.7 31.9 -1 292.7 1.9

181143 5193.9 1.5 2573.3 1.1 6.2 37858 21870 15987

187609 5252.8 1.1 2587.4 0.5 5.7 37956 23592 14364

196701 5318.9 1.3 2618.8 1.2 5.1 40690 23676 17014

212212 5376.3 1.1 2683.7 2.5 4.2 41844 22548 19295

220989 5398.7 0.4 2750.7 2.5 3.6 32801 15772 17029

222317 5397 0 2811.7 2.2 4.1 14808 7592 7216

219025 5417.8 0.4 2850.2 1.4 5.8 7959 3711 4248

213681 5454.4 0.7 2849.5 0 9.9 4140 2335 1805

217428 5470.8 0.3 2815.5 -1.2 12.7 7417 5230 2187

223050 5475.3 0.1 2810 -0.2 11.8 13879 11088 2791

231556 5509.1 0.6 2826.8 0.6 10.5 24400 16989 7411

238141 5573.3 1.2 2860 1.2 9.5 31928 19775 12153

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

53

Nap l e s – Ma r c o I s l a n d

P r o fi l e s The Naples–Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier County only. Located on the southwest coast of Florida, the area is notable for numerous recreation and leisure activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the “Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida.”

Quick Facts:

• Population estimate of 315,839 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 151,587 in January 2008 (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• An unemployment rate of 4.8% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted.

This amounts to 7,220 unemployed people.

(Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• Collier County School Board – 3,350 employees

• NCH Healthcare Systems – 2,700 employees

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Naples—Marco Island MSA is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in the economic indicators. The metro area is ranked number one in the state of Florida for personal income growth, with a 5.4 percent growth rate, and also for per capita income level, which is expected to be 64.2. Average annual wage will be the second highest in the state at a level of 50.0. The average annual wage is expected to grow at a rate of 2.6 percent, one of the highest in the state. Population growth will average at 1.0 percent, and the Gross Metro Product level will be at 11,521.35 (Mill).

Employment growth is expected to average 1.2 percent each year. The metro will see the highest unemployment rate in the state, at 13.2 percent.

Education and Health Services represents Naples’ fastest growing sector, growing at a rate of 2.1 percent each year. The Information sector follows, with a growth rate of 1.8 percent annually. Construction & Mining and the Federal Government are the only sectors that will experience declines, with annual growth rates of -0.7 percent and -1.3 percent respectively.

• Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,755 employees

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s

• Marriott Corporation – 860 employees

Utility increases not as bad as projected; rate disparities will wait

• Collier County Government – 1,060 employees • County Sheriff’s Department – 838 employees

• Winn Dixie Stores, Inc. – 760 employees

• The Ritz-Carlton, Naples – 758 employees • Naples Registry Resort – 600 employees • Collier Enterprises – 500 employees

Source: Naples Homes Real Estate and Relocation Services

• Marco Island residents will not see a 20% rate increase on their water bills this year.

• The utility’s committee came up with several recommendations and changes to earlier planned projects, which will help them save money and avoid “rate shock” when it comes to customers’ bills.

• The committee is recommending a 9.5% increase this year, followed by 10.5%, 6%, 6%, and 1.5% increases in the next 4 years, respectively. This will result in a compounded 38% increase over five years, compared to an earlier projected 53% increase.

Source: Naples News, November 2, 2009

54

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

Nap l e s – Ma r c o I s l a n d

Collier’s sixth Habitat community finished, provides homes to 204 families • Despite hard economic times and challenges to raise money, Collier County finished its sixth Habitat for Humanity community. Hundreds of people came together to celebrate the 204 new homes.

• After an extensive application process, partnering families have to volunteer 500 hours of labor and invest $1,000 before they can buy their home. Afterwards, families make monthly payments on a no-interest home loan.

• Habitat for Humanity of Collier County, one of the oldest and longest affiliates, has built over 1,200 homes.

Source: Naples News, November 14, 2009 Bank failure: Orion’s demise expected, says analyst, predicting more closures in Florida • Federal regulators have shut down Naples-based Orion bank. In an agreement with the FDIC, IberiaBank assumed all of Orion’s $2.4 billion in assets and opened its doors to customers on Monday.

• Orion financial statements reported $84 million in year-to-date net losses.

• Orion was one of the largest community banks in Southwest Florida and had about 260 employees, most of who will stay on with IberiaBank.

Neighborhood America software development company adding employees • The Naples-based software development company, Neighborhood America, plans to add 15 or more employees to its offices in Naples and Atlanta.

• The biggest challenge for the company so far has been finding high-skilled employees to fill open positions in South Florida, in part due to the lack of a technology corridor in the area.

Source: Naples News, November 25, 2009 Naples Beach Hotel & Golf Club undergoes $16 million makeover • The Naples resort, Naples Beach Hotel & Golf Club, is in the final stages of its makeover, with $16 million invested in remodeling guest rooms and the construction of a $5-million pool.

• Since 2000, hotel owners have spent over $55 million on renovations and additions to the resort.

• The owners believe this major renovation will help them compete with other area resorts, while keeping the hotel’s alluring and distinct Old Florida flavor.

Source: Naples News, November 30, 2009

Source: Naples News, November 16, 2009

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

55

Nap l e s – Ma r c o I s l a n d Naples MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

(percent)

0.5

1

13000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

12000.0 10000.0 9000.0 8000.0 7000.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

6000.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Real Personal Income 24.0%

(percent change year ago)

20.0% 16.0%

120.0

12.0%

110.0

8.0%

100.0

4.0%

90.0

56

2.5

11000.0

130.0

80.0

2

Naples Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Payroll Employment 140.0

1.5

0.0% 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Naples Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

-4.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income

Nap l e s – Ma r c o I s l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Naples, FL*

December 2009 Forecast

2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

21.1 3.1 5.4 15.7 19.1 13.3 65.1 58.9 47.3 -0.1

21.7 7.9 5.4 16.2 19.6 18.1 67.2 60.8 47.7 2.5

22.1 10.4 5.5 16.7 20 21 69 62.3 48.2 3.2

21.7 8.7 5.5 16.1 19.5 19.5 67.5 60.8 48.6 3.6

22 4.2 5.6 16.4 19.7 3.2 68.5 61.4 48.8 3.1

22.5 3.8 5.6 16.9 20.1 2.5 70 62.5 49.1 2.8

22.9 3.4 5.7 17.2 20.4 1.8 71.1 63.4 49.3 2.3

23.4 7.9 5.7 17.6 20.7 6.3 72.5 64.4 49.5 1.9

23.9 8.9 5.8 18.1 21.2 7.3 74.2 65.6 49.8 1.9

25.2 11.9 5.9 19.3 22.2 10.3 77.8 68.5 50 1.9

24.3 6.3 6 18.4 21.4 4.9 74.9 65.8 50.3 2

24.3 3.8 6 18.2 21.2 2.5 74.4 65.1 50.6 2.2

24.4 2.1 6.1 18.3 21.3 0.8 74.6 65.1 50.9 2.3

24.8 -1.6 6.2 18.6 21.6 -2.7 75.2 65.5 51.3 2.6

113.2 -0.9 2.5 0.2 110.7 -0.9 10 -9.1 20.5 0.8 3.2 15.4 1.4 1.6 -1.8 6.7 -5.2 13.9 -1.1 17.1 1.6 21.3 0.3 6 1.2 0.6 3.3 12.8 -0.5

113.6 0.5 2.6 1.3 111.1 0.5 9.9 -7.9 20.6 2.3 3.2 15.6 1.4 1.7 1.6 6.8 -4 14 3.2 17.2 2.4 21.3 1.4 6 1.9 0.6 0.6 12.8 -0.3

114.3 1.3 2.6 2.6 111.7 1.2 9.9 -4.9 20.7 2.9 3.3 15.6 1.4 1.7 5.8 6.9 -1.4 14.2 4.3 17.4 2.7 21.3 1 6 2 0.6 -8.1 12.9 0

115.1 1.8 2.6 3.7 112.4 1.8 9.9 -2 20.9 2.9 3.4 15.7 1.5 1.7 6.4 7 2.2 14.4 4.4 17.5 2.6 21.3 0.3 6.1 1.7 0.6 -3.7 12.9 0.8

115.9 2.4 2.6 4.3 113.2 2.3 10.1 0.5 21.2 3.4 3.4 15.9 1.5 1.7 5 7.1 5 14.6 5 17.5 2.3 21.4 0.3 6.1 1.5 0.6 -2.5 13 1.4

116.6 2.6 2.7 4.6 113.9 2.6 10.2 3.3 21.3 3.5 3.5 16 1.5 1.7 4.3 7.2 4.9 14.7 4.4 17.5 1.7 21.5 0.7 6.1 1.4 0.6 -1.2 13.1 1.9

117.7 3 2.7 4.9 115 3 10.4 5.2 21.6 3.9 3.5 16.2 1.6 1.7 3.4 7.2 4.4 14.8 4.1 17.7 1.7 21.6 1.5 6.1 1.6 0.6 -0.2 13.2 2.5

118.8 3.2 2.7 4.8 116 3.2 10.6 6.4 21.7 3.8 3.5 16.3 1.6 1.8 2.9 7.3 4.5 14.9 3.6 17.7 1.5 21.8 2.4 6.2 1.9 0.6 0.1 13.3 2.8

119.8 3.4 2.8 4.3 117 3.3 10.8 6.9 21.9 3.5 3.6 16.4 1.6 1.8 3.3 7.4 4.3 15.1 3.3 17.8 1.7 22 3.1 6.2 2.1 0.6 0.3 13.4 3.2

120.7 3.5 2.8 3.9 117.9 3.5 11 7.7 22.1 3.4 3.6 16.5 1.6 1.8 3.4 7.4 3.8 15.2 3.7 17.9 2 22.1 3.1 6.2 2.2 0.6 0.3 13.5 3.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

114.2 -7 2.5 -11.2 111.7 -6.9 11 -18 20.3 -14.2 3.3 15.6 1.4 1.7 -4.3 7.1 -1.3 14.1 -8.4 16.9 1.3 21.2 -3.5 5.9 -0.8 0.6 -7.1 12.9 -3

113 -6.3 2.5 -10.5 110.5 -6.2 10.7 -14.5 20.2 -13.3 3.3 15.2 1.4 1.6 -4.4 7.1 -3.2 13.6 -10.1 16.8 0.7 21 -1.5 5.9 0.2 0.6 -9.8 12.9 -2.1

112.8 -4.1 2.5 -7.5 110.3 -4 10.4 -12.3 20.2 -9.1 3.2 15.2 1.4 1.6 -6.3 7 -4.2 13.6 -8 16.9 2 21.1 0.7 5.9 0.9 0.7 -1 12.9 -0.6

113 -1.1 2.5 -1.8 110.5 -1.1 10.1 -10.6 20.3 -1.2 3.2 15.3 1.4 1.6 -4.1 6.9 -4 13.8 -2.1 17 3.7 21.3 1.3 6 1.3 0.7 2.7 12.8 -0.5

10917.8 10899.4 10930.2 10968.9 11001.7 324.3 322.3 321.1 320.7 321.1 2.6 1.8 1.3 0.9 -1 146.8 146.5 146.8 147.3 148.1 -3.3 -3 -1.8 1.4 0.8 12.4 15.3 15.2 15.1 15 942 1185 1389 1553 1798 754 954 1169 1314 1540 188 231 220 239 258

11071 11172.6 11290.9 11415.5 11521.8 11660.2 11790.6 11913.2 12012.4 321.4 321.8 322.2 322.9 323.5 324.8 326.2 327.8 329.4 -0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 1 1.2 1.5 1.8 148.8 149.5 150.2 151.1 152.1 153.4 154.6 156 157.4 1.6 1.8 2 2 2.2 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.5 14.6 14.2 13.8 13.3 13 12.6 12.1 11.8 11.4 2136 2505 2860 3219 3493 3781 4076 4278 4434 1831 2154 2425 2678 2829 3013 3155 3219 3255 305 351 435 540 663 768 921 1060 1179

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

57

Nap l e s – Ma r c o I s l a n d

Annual Outlook for Naples, FL

December 2009 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

11.9 5.9 4 7.9 11.6 4.4 43.3 41.9 36.2 1.9

12.7 6.6 4.5 8.2 12.1 4.4 44.6 42.3 39.5 9.3

15.3 20.4 5 10.3 14.2 17.3 51.8 47.9 41.3 4.5

17 10.8 5.6 11.4 15.3 7.6 55.5 49.9 43.6 5.6

19.3 13.7 6 13.3 16.9 10.7 62 54.2 44.4 1.7

20.2 4.7 6.2 14.1 17.2 2 64.5 54.9 46.4 4.6

20.5 1.5 6 14.6 16.9 -1.7 65.1 53.6 47.7 2.8

20.3 -1.3 5.5 14.8 17.1 1.4 63.6 53.7 46.9 -1.8

21.9 7.8 5.5 16.4 19.7 15 68 61.4 48.3 3.1

23.2 6 5.7 17.5 20.6 4.5 72 64 49.4 2.2

24.6 5.9 6 18.6 21.5 4.6 75.4 66.2 50.5 2.1

25 1.9 6.4 18.7 21.7 0.7 75.4 65.3 51.9 2.8

135 5.2 3.3 3.6 131.7 5.3 23.9 17.6 24.5 0.9 3.2 19.5 1.7 1.9 3.2 8.2 5.7 16.8 3.2 15.4 6 21.9 1.8 5.8 1.9 0.7 0 12.7 3.4

132 -2.3 3.3 -1.3 128.7 -2.3 19.7 -17.8 24.2 -1.3 3.4 19.2 1.6 1.8 -5 8.2 0.1 15.8 -6.2 16.2 5.5 23 4.9 5.9 3.2 0.7 0 13.3 4.6

124.6 -5.6 2.9 -10.8 121.6 -5.5 14.7 -25.5 23.5 -2.8 3.4 18.6 1.5 1.8 -1.6 7.4 -9.1 15.3 -3.2 16.5 1.7 22.5 -2.3 6.1 2.7 0.7 -3.8 13.3 0.2

116.7 -6.3 2.7 -8.8 114 -6.3 11.7 -20.3 21.6 -8.2 3.3 16.9 1.4 1.7 -4.6 7.2 -2.4 14.5 -4.8 16.7 1 21.1 -5.9 5.9 -3.7 0.7 -1.6 13 -2.5

113 -3.1 2.5 -5.1 110.5 -3.1 10.3 -11.7 20.3 -6 3.2 15.3 1.4 1.6 -4.2 6.9 -4.2 13.7 -5.5 17 2 21.2 0.2 5.9 0.9 0.7 -1.4 12.9 -0.9

114.7 1.5 2.6 3 112.1 1.5 9.9 -3.6 20.9 2.9 3.3 15.7 1.5 1.7 4.7 7 0.4 14.3 4.2 17.4 2.5 21.3 0.7 6 1.8 0.6 -3.5 12.9 0.5

118.2 3 2.7 4.6 115.5 3 10.5 5.5 21.6 3.7 3.5 16.2 1.6 1.7 3.5 7.3 4.5 14.9 3.8 17.7 1.6 21.7 1.9 6.2 1.7 0.6 -0.2 13.3 2.6

122.2 3.4 2.8 3.6 119.4 3.4 11.2 7.2 22.4 3.6 3.7 16.8 1.7 1.8 3.2 7.5 3 15.4 3.7 18.1 2.1 22.3 2.5 6.3 1.9 0.6 0 13.7 3.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

58

110.8 4.1 3.1 -3.4 107.7 4.3 14.7 1.1 22.7 2.1 3.3 17.6 1.9 1.8 -0.9 6.5 4.6 13.4 7.1 12.8 5.1 18.3 5.3 5.5 7 0.7 0 11.3 7.1

114.2 3 2.9 -5.3 111.2 3.3 14.6 -0.8 22.4 -1.3 3.1 17.7 1.7 1.7 -3.3 6.7 2.6 16.1 19.8 13.2 3.3 18.5 1.2 5.5 -0.3 0.7 0 11.8 4.5

120.6 5.7 3.1 5.9 117.5 5.7 16.8 14.8 23 2.4 3.3 18 1.7 1.8 7.3 7.1 5.8 17.4 8.1 13.4 1.9 20 8.2 5.4 -1.4 0.7 0 11.9 0.9

128.3 6.3 3.2 3 125.1 6.4 20.3 21.3 24.3 5.6 3.4 19.1 1.8 1.8 0 7.7 9.3 16.3 -6.5 14.5 7.9 21.5 7.4 5.7 5.2 0.7 0 12.3 2.9

9429.8 10209.9 11153.9 12373.2 12584.4 12318.1 276.1 285.7 296 305.9 311.6 313.8 4 3.5 3.6 3.4 1.8 0.7 129.6 133.1 138 145.2 152.7 153.2 4.9 2.7 3.6 5.3 5.2 0.3 5.1 4.9 4.2 3.4 3.1 4.2 7078 5334 6101 5724 4256 1961 4279 3403 4018 4038 3050 1161 2799 1932 2083 1686 1206 800

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

11505 10883.9 10950.1 11237.5 11721.5 12176.3 315.5 319 321.3 322.1 325.6 331.8 0.5 1.1 0.7 0.2 1.1 1.9 151.8 148.2 147.2 149.9 154 159.5 -0.9 -2.4 -0.7 1.9 2.8 3.6 6.7 11.1 15.1 14 12.4 11.1 986 865 1481 2680 3907 4650 688 658 1245 2272 3054 3364 298 208 237 408 853 1286

Oca l a

P r o fi l e s Comprised of Marion County only, the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area in the center of the state. The second-largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area.

Quick Facts:

• Population estimate of 324,857 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 136,167 in January 2008 (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• An unemployment rate of 5.7% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted.

This amounts to 7,800 unemployed people.

(Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• Marion County School Board – 6,000+ employees

• Munroe Regional Medical Center – 2,500 employees • Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – 2,385 employees

• State of Florida (all departments) – 2,263 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,450 employees • Marion County Board of County Commissioners – 1,342 employees

• Ocala Regional Medical Center – 1,301 employees

• Emergency One, Inc. – 1,274 employees • City of Ocala – 1,244 employees • AT&T – 1,000 employees

Source: Ocala/Marion Economic Development Council

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Ocala MSA is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in the economic indicators.

Personal income growth is expected to average 5.1 percent annually, among the highest in the state. Per capita income level is the lowest in the state at a level of 27.7. Relative to other metro areas, Ocala will have the second lowest average annual wage level, at 37.1. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.5 percent. The metro has the highest expected annual population growth in the state at 2.3 percent.

The Gross Metro Product is expected to be 6,653.45 (Mill), the lowest in the state.

Employment growth is expected to average a rate of 1.5 percent annually. Unemployment for the metro will be 11.1 percent, among the highest in Florida.

The Professional & Business Services sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in Ocala, averaging annual growth of 2.7 percent. Education and Health Services follows with a 2.5 percent expected growth rate. The Financial and Federal Government sectors will experience negative growth, with growth rates of -0.1 percent and -0.2 percent respectively.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Federal auditor scolds Ocala National Bank, its regulator • Ocala National bank incurred heavy losses from its high-risk, quick-growth policies, leading to its bankruptcy and a loss of $99.6 million to the FDIC, which insures deposits when banks fail.

• The audit performed by the Office of the Inspector General of the U.S. Treasury Department states that weak and tardy regulation by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency contributed to the bank’s failure, which showed signs of weaknesses as early as 2004.

Source: The Ocala Star Banner, October 11, 2009

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

59

Oca l a

Hospital vote keeps speculation about Munroe’s future alive • A vote by the Munroe Regional Medical Center trustees left the possibility of selling the hospital or considering looking for a new hospital operator on the table.

• Trustees currently deem either possibility unlikely. For two years the trustees have been searching for a solution to deal with the hospital’s deepening financial troubles.

• Two proposals involve a tax on Marion County citizens that would give the hospital $20 million.

Some trustees suggest that the best option would be to look for a new provider to operate the hospital, replacing the current provider, Munroe Health Systems.

Source: The Ocala Star Banner, October 30, 2009 District uses reserve funds for after-school program • Middle schools and high schools in the district will launch after-school programs as part of a plan intended to increase the academic achievement of those students needing extra help.

• The $6 million plan uses up 40% of the district’s reserve funds, leaving $10 million for emergencies.

• The School Board chose to use the reserve funds to pay for the program, rather than passing a tax on property.

Source: The Ocala Star Banner, November 8, 2009

60

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

Horse Park saddles up expansion • Florida Horse Park, a not-for-profit organization, will construct a new, 4,000-square-foot facility—a critical first step towards a multiphase construction project that will expand the park into a multi-purpose equine facility.

• The facility, a wastewater treatment unit, a drain field, and at least one retention pond make up a $750,000 project that is part of Phase One. • The organization has an estimated economic impact of $15 million on Marion County and Florida.

Source: The Ocala Star Banner, November 18, 2009 County adopts ‘totally new direction’ in future growth • Marion County has adopted a newly rewritten growth-management strategy for the next 25 years that updates the county’s current land-use plan, which had not been updated since 1998.

• This Evaluation and Assessment Report (EAR) includes when and how the county will develop, and what infrastructure will accompany that development.

• The report will be forwarded to the state Department of Community Affairs for review. If approved, the County Commission will have up to 18 months to adopt amendments that codify the incorporated changes.

Source: The Ocala Star Banner, November 30, 2009

Oca l a Ocala MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

7500.0

(Millions 2000 $)

7000.0 6000.0 5500.0 5000.0 4500.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

105.0 100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 80.0

1

Ocala Real Gross Metro Product

4000.0

Ocala Payroll Employment 110.0

0.8

6500.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Ocala Payroll Employment

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Ocala Real Personal Income 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

61

Oca l a

Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL*

December 2009 Forecast

2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

10 -1.5 3.4 6.5 9 8.2 29.5 26.7 35.2 -0.2

10 0.8 3.5 6.6 9.1 10.3 29.5 26.7 35.5 2.4

10.2 1.7 3.5 6.7 9.2 11.5 29.7 26.9 35.8 3

10.3 3.5 3.5 6.8 9.3 13.8 30 27 36.1 3.4

10.4 4.2 3.6 6.9 9.3 3.2 30.1 27 36.3 3.1

10.5 4.7 3.6 6.9 9.4 3.4 30.3 27.1 36.5 2.8

10.7 4.8 3.6 7 9.5 3.3 30.6 27.2 36.6 2.3

10.8 4.9 3.7 7.2 9.6 3.3 30.9 27.4 36.8 1.8

11 5.5 3.7 7.3 9.7 4 31.2 27.6 36.9 1.8

11.2 6 3.8 7.4 9.8 4.5 31.5 27.7 37.1 1.8

11.4 6.6 3.8 7.6 10 5.1 31.8 28 37.3 1.9

11.6 6.8 3.9 7.7 10.1 5.4 32.1 28.2 37.5 2.1

11.7 6.7 3.9 7.8 10.2 5.4 32.4 28.3 37.8 2.3

11.9 6.5 4 7.9 10.3 5.2 32.7 28.4 38 2.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

97.1 -3.8 6.7 -13.4 90.5 -3 8.7 -5.6 21 -4.7 4 14.2 2.7 1.7 -6.1 5.2 -10.5 7.5 -6.5 14.3 2.1 10 -2.1 4.3 -0.8 0.7 -0.7 17 -0.3

96.7 -3.3 6.7 -9 90 -2.8 8.4 -7.5 20.9 -3.6 4 14.2 2.7 1.7 -8 5.2 -11.4 7.4 -3.8 14.4 1.3 10 -1.8 4.3 -0.4 0.7 -0.9 17 -0.1

96.7 -2.4 6.6 -4.6 90.1 -2.2 8.2 -8.5 20.9 -2.5 4 14.2 2.7 1.6 -9.4 5.2 -11.8 7.5 -2.8 14.6 2.5 10.1 -0.1 4.3 0 0.8 8.7 17 -0.3

97 -0.7 6.6 -2.4 90.4 -0.6 8.1 -9.3 21 -0.8 4 14.3 2.7 1.6 -5.1 5.1 -2.2 7.6 0.7 14.7 3.7 10.2 1.6 4.3 1.2 0.7 3.1 16.9 -1

97.3 0.2 6.7 -0.4 90.7 0.2 8.1 -6.5 21.1 0.7 4 14.4 2.7 1.7 -2.1 5.1 -1.8 7.7 2.2 14.8 3.4 10.2 1.7 4.3 1.7 0.7 1.7 16.9 -0.9

97.8 1.1 6.7 0.6 91 1.1 8.1 -3.9 21.3 1.8 4 14.6 2.7 1.7 1.2 5.2 -0.9 7.8 4.9 14.9 3.3 10.2 1.9 4.4 1.9 0.7 0.3 16.9 -0.7

98.4 1.7 6.7 1.9 91.6 1.7 8.2 -0.8 21.4 2.3 4 14.6 2.8 1.7 5.1 5.2 0.7 7.9 5.2 15.1 3.4 10.2 1.1 4.4 1.7 0.7 -8.2 16.9 -0.4

99.1 2.1 6.8 3 92.3 2.1 8.3 1.7 21.6 2.6 4.1 14.6 2.8 1.7 5.4 5.3 2.4 8 4.9 15.2 3.3 10.2 0.3 4.4 1.3 0.7 -3.8 17 0.4

99.8 2.6 6.9 3.6 92.9 2.5 8.4 3.3 21.8 3.2 4.1 14.8 2.9 1.7 3.8 5.3 3.7 8.1 4.7 15.3 3.2 10.2 0.3 4.4 1.1 0.7 -1.9 17 1

100.5 2.8 7 3.9 93.5 2.7 8.5 4.9 22 3.5 4.2 14.9 2.9 1.7 3.2 5.4 3.5 8.1 3.8 15.3 2.8 10.3 0.8 4.4 0.8 0.7 -1.3 17.1 1.5

101.3 3 7 4.3 94.3 2.9 8.6 5.9 22.2 3.9 4.2 15 3 1.7 2.4 5.4 3.2 8.2 3.5 15.4 2.4 10.3 1.4 4.4 0.8 0.7 -0.6 17.2 2

102.1 3.1 7.1 4.1 95 3 8.8 6.2 22.4 3.8 4.3 15.1 3 1.7 1.9 5.4 3.1 8.3 3.3 15.5 1.9 10.4 2.1 4.4 1.1 0.7 -0.2 17.4 2.3

102.8 3 7.1 3.6 95.7 3 8.9 6 22.5 3.4 4.3 15.2 3.1 1.8 2.3 5.5 2.9 8.3 3.3 15.6 1.8 10.5 2.7 4.5 1.3 0.7 0.1 17.5 2.7

103.5 3 7.2 3.3 96.3 3 9 6.4 22.7 3.2 4.3 15.3 3.1 1.8 2.3 5.5 2.4 8.4 3.6 15.6 1.8 10.5 2.6 4.5 1.4 0.7 0.3 17.6 2.9

6212.6 338.7 1.9 139.2 -1.2 12.8 573 561 13

6248.3 340.4 1.9 139.8 -0.8 12.9 844 824 20

6290.8 342 2 140.5 -0.1 12.7 1147 1123 24

6331.6 343.6 2 141.1 2 12.5 1400 1371 29

6364.6 345.4 2 141.6 1.8 12.4 1773 1738 36

6408.6 347.1 2 142.2 1.7 12.2 2221 2175 46

6468.2 348.8 2 142.7 1.5 11.9 2752 2698 54

6536.7 350.6 2 143.2 1.5 11.6 3284 3217 67

6610.8 352.5 2.1 143.8 1.5 11.3 3567 3492 75

6676 354.7 2.2 144.5 1.6 11 3735 3649 86

6749.6 356.9 2.3 145.3 1.8 10.6 3923 3834 90

6819.4 359.3 2.5 145.9 1.9 10.3 4078 3972 106

6884 361.6 2.6 146.7 2 10 4148 4028 120

6934.3 363.9 2.6 147.6 2.1 9.8 4172 4041 131

*Quarterly at an annual rate

62

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

Oca l a

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

December 2009 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

6.5 3.1 2.5 4 6.3 1.7 23.8 23 28.2 4.7

7 7.6 2.7 4.2 6.6 5.4 24.8 23.6 30.1 6.6

7.7 10.6 3 4.7 7.1 7.8 26.5 24.5 30.9 2.6

8.6 11.6 3.3 5.3 7.7 8.4 28.4 25.5 32.1 3.9

9.6 12.1 3.7 6 8.4 9.1 30.6 26.7 34.5 7.4

10 4 3.7 6.3 8.5 1.3 30.9 26.3 34.8 0.9

10.2 1.6 3.6 6.5 8.4 -1.7 30.8 25.4 35.2 1.3

10 -2 3.5 6.5 8.4 0.5 29.7 25.1 34.9 -1

10.2 2.6 3.5 6.7 9.2 9.5 29.8 26.9 35.9 3

10.7 5 3.6 7.1 9.6 3.5 30.7 27.3 36.7 2.2

11.4 6.5 3.8 7.6 10 5.1 32 28 37.4 2

12.1 6.1 4 8.1 10.5 4.8 33 28.6 38.4 2.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

87 0.4 9.3 -5.5 77.7 1.1 7.3 4.3 20.5 -0.7 3.1 14.8 2.6 2.3 -4.5 4 1.1 7.2 0.5 9.7 5.3 7.6 0.3 3.6 3.6 0.7 2.3 14.7 0.7

89.9 3.4 9.2 -1 80.7 3.9 8.5 15.3 20.9 2 3.3 15.1 2.5 2.2 -5.2 4.3 9.2 7.6 4.8 10.5 8.5 7.7 0.9 3.6 -1.6 0.7 -2.3 14.7 0.4

95.9 6.6 9.6 4 86.3 6.9 9.9 16.7 21.7 3.6 3.6 15.6 2.5 2.2 1.2 4.9 12.5 8.2 7.5 11.1 6 8.7 13.1 3.8 7.7 0.7 0 15.1 2.4

101.5 5.9 9.9 3.6 91.6 6.1 10.7 8.8 22.9 5.6 3.9 16.3 2.7 2.2 -2.3 5.4 11.1 8.9 9.5 12 7.6 9.2 6.3 4 5.2 0.7 0 15.4 2.3

106.1 4.5 9.9 -0.7 96.3 5.1 12.6 17 23.4 1.9 4.2 16.4 2.7 2.1 -1.9 5.8 6 9.3 4.1 12.7 5.8 9.7 4.8 4.1 1.9 0.7 0 16 3.6

106.8 0.6 9.6 -3 97.2 1 11.6 -7.6 23.8 1.8 4.4 16.4 2.9 2 -7.2 6 3.6 8.5 -8.2 13.3 4.8 10.6 9.5 4.3 4.7 0.7 0 16.5 2.9

103 -3.5 8.3 -13.2 94.7 -2.6 9.7 -16.1 22.7 -4.3 4.1 15.7 2.9 1.9 -3.9 5.9 -0.2 8.2 -4.4 13.9 4.7 10.4 -2.1 4.3 -0.1 0.7 1.1 16.9 2.6

98.5 -4.4 6.9 -16.8 91.5 -3.3 8.9 -8.4 21.3 -6.2 4.1 14.5 2.7 1.7 -7.2 5.6 -6.3 7.6 -6.5 14.3 2.4 10.1 -2.9 4.3 -0.1 0.7 -1.3 17 0.9

96.9 -1.6 6.6 -4.2 90.3 -1.4 8.2 -8 21 -1.6 4 14.3 2.7 1.6 -6.2 5.2 -7.1 7.6 -1 14.6 2.7 10.1 0.3 4.3 0.6 0.7 3.2 16.9 -0.6

98.7 1.9 6.8 2.3 92 1.8 8.2 0 21.5 2.5 4.1 14.6 2.8 1.7 3.9 5.3 1.5 7.9 4.9 15.1 3.3 10.2 0.9 4.4 1.5 0.7 -3.5 16.9 0.1

101.7 3 7.1 4 94.6 2.9 8.7 5.8 22.3 3.6 4.2 15 3 1.7 2.4 5.4 3.2 8.2 3.5 15.5 2.2 10.4 1.8 4.4 1 0.7 -0.5 17.3 2.1

104.6 2.8 7.3 3 97.3 2.8 9.2 6 23 3.2 4.4 15.5 3.2 1.8 2 5.5 1.9 8.5 3.4 15.7 1.7 10.6 2 4.5 1.3 0.7 0.2 17.8 2.9

4765.6 272.2 2.6 111.7 2.2 5.9 5741 5258 484

5167.2 280.5 3 114.3 2.3 5.4 6723 5985 738

5513 291.2 3.8 118.9 4 4.6 5087 4998 88

6071.6 303 4.1 125.8 5.8 3.8 7169 6614 555

6580.6 314.9 3.9 132.2 5.1 3.4 7218 6862 357

6503.1 324.5 3 136.3 3.1 4.5 3117 2803 314

6351.4 330.3 1.8 139.1 2.1 7.7 1275 1256 19

6155.1 336.2 1.8 139.8 0.5 12.4 445 428 17

6308.8 342.9 2 140.8 0.7 12.6 1291 1264 27

6506.1 349.7 2 143 1.6 11.7 2956 2896 61

6782.2 358.1 2.4 145.6 1.8 10.5 3971 3871 100

7016.7 367.6 2.7 149 2.3 9.6 4245 4104 141

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

63

O r l a n d o – Ki s s i m m ee

P r o fi l e s The Orlando–Kissimmee MSA is comprised of Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole counties. Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World and numerous other Disney enterprises, Universal Studios, and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic, the Orlando Predators arena football team, and Atlanta Braves spring training at Disney’s Wide World of Sports. The University of Central Florida, the nation’s seventh-largest university, and many other places of higher education also reside in the MSA. Quick Facts:

• MSA population estimate of 2,032,496 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Lake County population estimate of 301,059 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Orange County population estimate of 1,066,113 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Osceola County population estimate of 255,815 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Seminole County population estimate of 409,509 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• A civilian labor force for the MSA of 1,096,524 in January 2008 (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• An unemployment rate of 4.3% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 46,649 unemployed people in the Orlando MSA. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• Walt Disney Co. – 59,500 employees

• Orange County Public Schools – 24,063 employees

• Florida Hospital (Adventist Health System) – 16,002 employees

• Publix Super Markets Inc. – 15,606 employees 64

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

• Universal Orlando – 13,000 employees

• Orlando Regional Healthcare System – 10,000 employees • University of Central Florida – 8,946 employees

• Lockheed Martin Corporation – 7,200 employees

• Seminole County Public Schools – 7,000 employees

• Marriott International Inc. – 6,312 employees Sources: Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission & Orange County Library System

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Orlando—Kissimmee area is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to be one of the highest in the state, growing at a rate of 5.1 percent. The per capita income level is expected to be 31.9. Average annual wage growth will be 2.4 percent, and average annual wage will be at a level of 43.9. The Orlando MSA will see a population growth of 1.4 percent, one of the highest in the state. Gross Metro Product is expected to be one of the highest in the state, averaging 91,148.35 (Mill).

Employment growth is forecasted to average 2.1 percent annually, the highest in the state. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 10.0 percent.

In the Orlando area, the fastest growing sector is expected to be Professional & Business Services with an average annual growth rate of 4.8 percent. This will be followed by Manufacturing and Education and Health Services, with average annual growth rates of 2.5 and 2.4 percent, respectively. The only sector that will experience negative growth is the Federal Government sector, with an average annual rate of growth of -0.6 percent.

O r l a n d o – Ki s s i m m ee

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s

Bankruptcy filings jump to 50 percent in Central Florida

SunTrust Banks: More than 100 jobs shed locally

• The U.S. Bankruptcy Court reported 57,956 cases for the middle district of Florida in fiscal year 2009, a figure up 49.7% from 2008.

• As part of a company-wide streamlining effort, SunTrust Banks have eliminated more than 100 jobs in Central Florida alone.

• SunTrust claims the job eliminations are largely the result of outsourcing company tasks to other countries.

• The Central Florida area fared better than other locations in the downsizing effort. SunTrust has eliminated over 3,082 jobs or 11% of its entire workforce since June 2008.

Source: Orlando Sentinel, October 14, 2009 Orange County resort tax falls 3% • Orange County collected resort taxes of $9.23 million in the month of September, down 3% from the same period last year.

• For the year period ending on September 30th, Orange County has collected 15% less resort taxes than the previous year.

• These figures are undoubtedly the result of a still-sluggish travel industry, as evidenced by September’s 1.5% decline in hotel occupancy from the previous year.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, November 3, 2009 Disney posts 18% profit boost for quarter

• Central Florida’s bankruptcy numbers well exceeded the corresponding national increase of around 34%.

• Bankruptcy filings in Florida’s middle district were second only to the central district of California, posting a distressing 97,481 cases for the fiscal year.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, November 25, 2009 Trade trip to Panama holds promise of jobs, Mayor Rich Crotty says • Orlando Mayor Richard Crotty will be leading a delegation representing over 20 local businesses to Panama for a six-day trade trip.

• While Crotty declined to specify what the aim of the trip might be, he mentioned the venture could spell “the potential for a major announcement” of new local jobs.

• While supporters of publicly backed trade trips emphasize their importance in mending a wounded local economy, they continue to draw scrutiny as county budgets wane in the wake of the recession.

Source: Orlando Sentinel, November 28, 2009

• An 18% boost in earnings for the fourth quarter surprised Disney executives and market spectators alike; a sign of a wounded economy beginning recovery.

• The rise in revenue came in the midst of an executive overhaul brought on by five straight quarters of declining revenue.

• However, for the full year, revenue fell by 4%, and net income saw a decline of 25%.

Source: Florida Today, November 16, 2009

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

65

O r l a n d o – Ki s s i m m ee Orlando - Kissimee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

0.8

100000.0

70000.0

4.0%

60000.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate

50000.0

Orlando Payroll Employment (Thousands)

(Millions 2000 $)

15.0% 12.0%

1050.0

9.0%

1000.0

6.0%

950.0

3.0%

900.0

0.0%

850.0

-3.0% 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 OrlandoPayroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Orlando Real Personal Income

1100.0

66

1.6

Orlando Real Gross Metro Product

6.0%

800.0

1.4

80000.0

8.0%

1150.0

1.2

90000.0

10.0%

2.0%

1

-6.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income

O r l a n d o – Ki s s i m m ee

Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL*

December 2009 Forecast

2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

69.9 -2.8 42.6 27.3 63.3 6.8 33 29.9 41.7 0

69.9 -0.2 42.4 27.5 63.3 9.1 33.1 30 42 2.4

70.8 1.4 42.9 27.9 64 11.2 33.5 30.3 42.3 3

71.8 3.2 43.4 28.3 64.6 13.4 34 30.6 42.7 3.4

72.5 3.7 43.8 28.6 65 2.8 34.3 30.8 42.9 3

73.3 4.8 44.3 29 65.5 3.4 34.6 30.9 43.1 2.8

74.2 4.9 44.8 29.4 66.1 3.3 34.9 31.1 43.3 2.3

75.3 4.9 45.4 29.8 66.8 3.3 35.3 31.3 43.5 1.8

76.4 5.5 46 30.4 67.6 3.9 35.8 31.6 43.7 1.7

77.7 6 46.7 31 68.5 4.5 36.3 31.9 43.9 1.7

79.1 6.6 47.4 31.6 69.5 5.1 36.7 32.3 44.1 1.8

80.4 6.9 48.2 32.3 70.4 5.5 37.1 32.5 44.3 2

81.7 6.9 48.9 32.8 71.3 5.5 37.5 32.8 44.6 2.2

83 6.8 49.7 33.3 72.2 5.5 37.9 33 45 2.4

1016.8 0 39.6 0.8 977.2 0 52.6 -7.5 188.5 0.2 44.5 108.6 30.8 23.8 -3.9 61.5 -4.2 164.9 1.8 120.4 1.3 198 1.5 51 0.9 11.6 2 104.9 -1

1023 1.6 40 1.2 983.1 1.6 52.2 -6 189.6 1.2 44.6 109.8 31 24.1 -0.7 61.9 -2.8 168.1 7.2 121.2 2.5 198.2 2.3 51.3 1.7 11.5 -0.8 105 -0.8

1031 2.3 40.1 1.9 990.9 2.3 52.3 -3.1 190.8 2 45.3 110.1 31.5 24.4 3.8 62.6 -0.6 171.6 8.4 122.6 3 198.4 1.6 51.4 1.8 11.4 -10.1 105.3 -0.2

1040.5 2.8 40.6 3.2 999.8 2.7 52.9 -0.2 192.5 2.5 46.1 110.9 32.1 24.7 5 63.2 1.9 175.5 8.4 123.7 3.3 198.5 0.6 51.5 1.6 11.4 -5 105.8 0.7

1050.8 3.3 41.3 4.3 1009.5 3.3 53.7 2 194.8 3.3 46.8 112.2 32.8 24.7 3.9 63.9 3.9 179.6 8.9 124.6 3.5 198.9 0.5 51.8 1.5 11.3 -2.4 106.4 1.4

1060.9 3.7 41.9 5 1019 3.7 54.5 4.5 196.7 3.8 47.3 113.3 33.4 24.9 3.2 64.4 4 182.4 8.5 125.5 3.5 200.1 1 52 1.5 11.3 -1.5 107.1 2

1071.7 3.9 42.4 5.6 1029.3 3.9 55.7 6.3 198.6 4.1 47.7 114.4 33.8 25 2.1 65 3.9 185.1 7.9 126.5 3.2 201.8 1.7 52.3 1.8 11.3 -0.8 108 2.5

1082.3 4 42.9 5.6 1039.5 4 56.8 7.4 200.2 4 48.2 114.9 34.3 25 1.3 65.7 3.9 188.2 7.2 127.3 2.9 203.6 2.6 52.6 2.1 11.3 -0.5 108.8 2.8

1092.3 3.9 43.3 4.9 1049 3.9 57.9 8 201.7 3.6 48.8 115.5 34.8 25.2 1.8 66.2 3.6 190.5 6.1 128 2.8 205.4 3.3 53 2.3 11.3 -0.4 109.7 3.1

1101.7 3.8 43.8 4.4 1058 3.8 59.1 8.4 203.5 3.4 49.3 116.3 35.2 25.4 2 66.5 3.2 192.9 5.7 128.7 2.5 206.8 3.4 53.2 2.3 11.3 -0.4 110.6 3.3

85246.1 85203.5 85662.9 86132.6 86570.6 87240.1 88117.3 89173.5 90340.3 91428.5 92577.4 93667.9 94689.7 2118.8 2111.9 2109.3 2110.3 2114.6 2119.3 2123.9 2129.4 2135.9 2143.5 2154.3 2165.4 2176.9 2.5 1.8 1.3 1.1 -0.2 0.3 0.7 0.9 1 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.9 1104.2 1099.3 1098.4 1098.9 1101.4 1104.8 1107.5 1110.8 1115.3 1120.4 1126.4 1132.5 1139.3 -2 -1.8 -1.6 -0.8 -0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.7 2 2.2 11.5 11.8 11.7 11.5 11.5 11.2 10.9 10.4 10 9.8 9.4 9.1 8.8 5357 6676 8059 9123 10612 12589 14912 17182 18924 20386 21681 22841 23489 5065 6250 7560 8492 9844 11562 13611 15442 16848 17865 18792 19491 19763 292 426 499 632 768 1026 1301 1740 2076 2521 2889 3351 3726

95562 2189 2.1 1146.3 2.3 8.5 23934 19913 4021

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1017 -4.1 39.3 -7 977.7 -4 56.9 -16.4 188.1 -4.1 45.3 109.6 32 24.8 -4.2 64.2 -4.1 161.9 -6.4 118.8 0.3 195 -1.7 50.6 -3.7 11.4 -3.3 106.1 -1

1006.9 -3.4 39.5 -4.8 967.4 -3.3 55.5 -14.8 187.3 -3.9 45.3 107.1 31.4 24.3 -4.7 63.7 -4 156.8 -6.5 118.3 -0.3 193.7 0.8 50.4 -1 11.6 -1.6 105.8 -1.4

1008.1 -1.9 39.4 -2.3 968.8 -1.9 54 -11.5 187 -3 44.9 107.2 31 23.5 -6 63 -3.6 158.3 -3 119 0.1 195.2 1.3 50.5 -0.1 12.7 9.1 105.6 -0.5

1012.5 -0.7 39.4 -0.7 973.1 -0.7 53 -9.5 187.9 -1.1 44.7 107.8 30.8 23.5 -5.8 62 -3.8 161.9 0.3 119.7 1.5 197.3 1.4 50.7 0.5 12 3.6 105.1 -1

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

67

O r l a n d o – Ki s s i m m ee

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

December 2009 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

49.4 4.9 31 18.4 47.9 3.5 28.1 27.2 34 4.5

52.6 6.5 33.2 19.5 49.9 4.3 29.1 27.6 35.6 4.6

57.6 9.4 36.4 21.2 53.2 6.6 30.7 28.4 37.1 4.2

63.4 10 40.1 23.3 56.9 6.9 32.6 29.3 38.7 4.3

69.1 9.1 43.2 25.9 60.4 6.2 34.6 30.3 40.2 3.8

71.5 3.5 44.9 26.6 60.9 0.8 35.2 30 40.9 1.8

72.3 1 44.8 27.5 59.5 -2.2 35.1 28.9 41.4 1.3

69.8 -3.4 42.5 27.3 59 -0.9 33.4 28.2 41.3 -0.3

71.2 2 43.1 28.1 64.2 9 33.7 30.4 42.5 3

74.8 5 45.1 29.6 66.5 3.5 35.2 31.3 43.4 2.1

79.7 6.6 47.8 31.9 69.9 5.2 36.9 32.4 44.2 1.9

85 6.6 50.8 34.2 73.6 5.3 38.5 33.4 45.4 2.7

1071.3 3.8 44.5 -1.9 1026.8 4 91.2 8 198.8 3.1 46.2 122.4 30.3 25.8 4.5 67 5.2 182.1 3.9 107.5 5.2 186.9 1.8 53.4 7.1 11.4 -3.5 102.7 4.1

1094.8 2.2 44.1 -0.8 1050.7 2.3 85.4 -6.4 204 2.6 47.2 123.7 33 26.8 3.7 67.8 1.1 187 2.6 112.7 4.8 193.6 3.6 55.8 4.5 11.5 0.4 106.2 3.4

1078.4 -1.5 42.7 -3.1 1035.7 -1.4 73 -14.5 201.1 -1.4 46.7 121.3 33.1 26.2 -2.1 67 -1.1 179.9 -3.8 117.3 4.1 200.2 3.4 53 -5 11.7 2.1 106.2 0

1026.5 -4.8 40.2 -6 986.4 -4.8 60.4 -17.2 191.4 -4.8 45.7 113.2 32.2 25.1 -4.5 65.1 -2.9 163.5 -9.1 118.6 1.1 193.6 -3.3 50.6 -4.5 11.6 -0.9 106.4 0.2

1011.1 -1.5 39.5 -1.8 971.6 -1.5 53.8 -11 187.7 -2 44.9 107.7 31 23.8 -5.1 62.6 -3.9 160.5 -1.9 119.3 0.7 196 1.3 50.7 0.1 12 3.3 105.4 -1

1036.3 2.5 40.5 2.6 995.8 2.5 52.8 -1.9 191.9 2.3 45.7 110.8 31.8 24.5 3 62.9 0.6 173.7 8.2 123 3.1 198.5 1.2 51.5 1.6 11.4 -4.7 105.6 0.3

1076.8 3.9 42.6 5.3 1034.2 3.9 56.2 6.5 199.3 3.8 48 114.5 34.1 25 2.1 65.3 3.9 186.5 7.4 126.8 3.1 202.7 2.2 52.5 1.9 11.3 -0.8 108.4 2.6

1115.4 3.6 44.3 4 1071.1 3.6 60.8 8.1 206 3.4 50 117.6 35.9 25.5 2 67 2.5 196.8 5.5 130 2.5 208.4 2.8 53.5 2 11.3 -0.3 111.9 3.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

68

908.4 -1 45.4 -7.5 863 -0.6 61.4 1.8 171.6 -3.7 39.6 104.8 27.3 22.5 -2 54.7 1 152.3 -2.9 89.4 2.7 165 -3.3 45.4 7 10.4 1.2 90.2 5.8

928.1 2.2 43.2 -4.9 884.9 2.5 66 7.4 173.4 1 40 107.4 25.9 23.1 2.5 57.4 4.8 152.2 -0.1 93.6 4.7 169.9 3 45.7 0.7 11.1 7 92.6 2.6

976.6 5.2 44.1 2.2 932.4 5.4 74.2 12.5 181.7 4.8 42 113.5 26.2 23.8 3.1 59.5 3.7 162.4 6.7 97.3 4 179.4 5.6 47.5 4 11.2 1.2 95.4 3

1032.4 5.7 45.3 2.7 987.1 5.9 84.4 13.7 192.8 6.1 44.7 120.1 28 24.7 3.9 63.7 7.1 175.4 8 102.2 5 183.6 2.4 49.9 4.9 11.8 5.2 98.7 3.5

66572.4 70644.3 75049.7 81629.6 1761.1 1810.1 1873.1 1941.9 2.8 2.8 3.5 3.7 918 934 963.3 1007.7 0.9 1.7 3.1 4.6 5.6 5.1 4.4 3.5 25182 27607 32400 33906 17509 22318 26196 26872 7673 5289 6204 7034

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

85715 87008.5 87021.1 84440.8 85892.4 88717.8 93090.9 96892.3 1996.8 2031.3 2057.9 2090.5 2111.6 2127.1 2160 2207.8 2.8 1.7 1.3 1.6 1 0.7 1.5 2.2 1048.9 1091.6 1119.9 1112.1 1099.5 1109.6 1129.7 1157.1 4.1 4.1 2.6 -0.7 -1.1 0.9 1.8 2.4 3.1 3.8 5.9 10.6 11.6 10.6 9.3 8.3 30304 18000 10572 4996 8618 15902 22099 24599 24310 12536 5736 4018 8036 14366 18978 20346 5994 5464 4837 979 581 1536 3122 4253

P a l m B a y – Me l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e

P r o fi l e s The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is comprised of Brevard County only. Typically known as “Florida’s Space Coast,” this area is home to the Kennedy Space Center. Located in the central part of Florida’s east coast, the region is home to Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, Patrick Air Force Base, and government contractors such as Harris Corporation.

Like much of Florida, this area is growing fast; Port Canaveral is now a leading cruise-ship port.

Quick Facts:

• Population estimate of 536,161 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 259,913 in January 2008 (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• An unemployment rate of 5.1% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted.

This amounts to 13,163 unemployed people.

(Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• Harris Corporation – 6,420 employees

• United Space Alliance – 6,380 employees • Health First, Inc. – 6,220 employees • Wuesthoff Health Systems – 2,460 employees

• Northrop Grumman Corporation – 2,000 employees

• Space Gateway Support – 1,800 employees • Parrish Medical Center – 1,250 employees • Rockwell Collins, Inc. – 1,250 employees • Sea Ray Boats, Inc. – 1,150 employees • Mercedes Homes – 1,030 employees

Source: Economic Development Commission of Florida’s Space Coast

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Palm Bay—Melbourne—Titusville MSA is expected to achieve modest growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 4.2 percent each year. Per capita income levels should average 33.3 percent annually. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.5 percent, while average annual wage levels should be at 46.3.

Population growth is expected to be an average of 0.5 percent, one of the lowest in the state, and the Gross Metro Product level is expected to be 16,166.23 (Mill).

Employment growth is forecasted to average of 1.1 percent each year. The metro will be seeing an average unemployment rate of 10.1 percent.

Manufacturing is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 2.3 percent growth annually. Education and Health Services follows with an average growth rate of 1.8 percent.

Construction & Mining and the Federal Government are the only sectors that will experience declines, with annual growth rates of -0.3 percent and -1.0 percent respectively.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Recession tones shopping down • Holiday shoppers in the Melbourne-Palm Bay area have been met with sparse shelves and less expensive gifts this year as local businesses adjust their inventory to the recession.

• Melbourne Target manager Chazz MacBride claims that the most popular items sold this year are smaller, more affordable items.

• With two toy stores recently closing in Brevard County, remaining stores are sticking with safe methods and carrying affordable, recessionfriendly products.

Source: Florida Today, November 11, 2009

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69

P a l m B a y – Me l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e

Shuttle workers fear job outlook • At least half of NASA’s shuttle workers are concerned with their job outlook after the scheduled fleet retirement next year.

• The fleet is likely to lose around 20% of its workforce to other job offerings over the course of the remaining six missions; shuttle supervisors believe they will have a large enough crew to see those missions to safety.

• Losing skilled and knowledgeable staff could raise the chance of a catastrophe occurring as NASA aspires to complete work on the International Space Station.

Source: Florida Today, November 15, 2009 Research parks may bring jobs to Melbourne • Melbourne International Airport and Florida Tech are introducing a proposal for a research park to be entitled Florida Institute of Technology Research Science and Technology Park.

• The park, said to encompass 10 buildings on 100 acres, promises to bring high-tech jobs and investment capital to the Melbourne area.

• Proponents have expressed excitement for the project, seeing it as a win-win for the Melbourne community.

Source: Florida Today, December 2, 2009

70

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

Brevard economic recovery fastest in state • Inexpensive housing and decent home sales have made Brevard County the highest ranking metro in the state of Florida according to Forbes magazine’s list of America’s Fastest-Recovering Cities.

• The figure, however, did not stack up well on the national stage as Brevard ranked 80th out of the 100 largest metro areas in the country.

• Experts attribute Brevard’s comparably favorable state ranking to their housing industry, claiming it has not been hit nearly as hard by the economic crisis as many other Florida metros.

Source: Florida Today, December 3, 2009 Shopping, parks may come to West Viera • The Viera Company gave an hour long presentation to county commissioners on an 11,567 acre proposal expected to begin in 2014.

• One project aimed at creating a full I-95 exchange at Viera Boulevard will require the company to finance roughly $41.7 million.

• On December 15, county commissioners will vote on comprehensive plan amendments and begin to assess the regional impact of the project.

Source: Florida Today, December 4, 2009.

P a l m B a y – Me l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.5

1

1.5

(percent)

10.0%

18000.0

6.0%

14000.0

4.0%

12000.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Palm Bay Unemployment Rate

10000.0

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Payroll Employment 220.0

(Thousands)

210.0 200.0 190.0 180.0

(Millions 2000 $)

16000.0

8.0%

2.0%

2.5

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

2

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Palm Bay Payroll Employment

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Personal Income 15.0% 12.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% -3.0% -6.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

71

P a l m B a y – Me l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL*

December 2009 Forecast

2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

18.7 -2.4 8.7 9.9 16.9 7.2 34.3 31 43.9 -0.2

18.7 -0.5 8.7 9.9 16.9 8.8 34.4 31.2 44.3 2.5

18.9 0.6 8.8 10.1 17.1 10.2 34.9 31.6 44.6 3.1

19.1 2.3 8.9 10.2 17.2 12.4 35.4 31.9 45 3.5

19.3 3.2 9 10.3 17.3 2.2 35.7 32 45.2 3

19.5 4.3 9 10.4 17.4 3 36.1 32.2 45.5 2.7

19.7 4.3 9.1 10.6 17.5 2.7 36.5 32.5 45.6 2.2

20 4.4 9.2 10.7 17.7 2.8 36.9 32.8 45.8 1.8

20.2 5.1 9.3 10.9 17.9 3.5 37.4 33.1 46 1.8

20.5 5.5 9.4 11.1 18.1 4 37.9 33.4 46.3 1.8

20.9 6 9.5 11.3 18.3 4.5 38.4 33.7 46.5 1.9

21.2 6 9.6 11.5 18.5 4.7 38.9 34 46.8 2.1

21.4 5.8 9.8 11.7 18.7 4.5 39.2 34.3 47.1 2.2

21.7 5.6 9.9 11.8 18.9 4.3 39.6 34.5 47.4 2.5

195.1 -0.4 21.7 0.4 173.4 -0.5 10.1 -8.3 33.8 0.1 5.7 24.5 2.9 2.8 -2.4 6.8 -4.4 32.8 0 31.3 2.1 19.8 0.2 8.1 -0.1 6.1 1 21.8 -1.6

195.9 0.8 21.9 1.1 174 0.8 10 -6.6 34 1.2 5.7 24.7 2.9 2.8 0.6 6.9 -3.3 33.1 3.7 31.5 2.5 19.7 0.9 8.1 0.5 6 -0.2 21.8 -1.4

196.8 1.1 22.1 2.3 174.8 1 10 -3.7 34.1 1.6 5.8 24.7 2.9 2.8 4.7 7 -1.2 33.4 4.3 31.8 2.8 19.7 0.2 8.1 0.6 6 -9 21.8 -0.9

198.1 1.7 22.3 3.5 175.8 1.5 10.1 -0.9 34.3 1.7 5.9 24.9 3 2.9 5.4 7 1.5 33.9 4.1 32.1 2.8 19.7 -0.6 8.1 0.3 6 -4.7 21.9 0

199.4 2.2 22.7 4.3 176.8 1.9 10.2 1.3 34.6 2.2 6 25.1 3 2.9 4 7.1 3.5 34.2 4.2 32.2 2.8 19.7 -0.6 8.1 0.1 5.9 -2.9 22 0.7

200.4 2.3 23 4.9 177.4 2 10.3 3.7 34.8 2.5 6.1 25.3 3.1 2.9 3.4 7.1 3.4 34.2 3.3 32.3 2.4 19.7 -0.1 8.1 -0.1 5.9 -2.4 22.1 1.3

201.8 2.5 23.2 5.3 178.6 2.2 10.5 5.3 35.1 2.9 6.1 25.5 3.1 2.9 2.4 7.2 3 34.4 2.9 32.5 1.9 19.8 0.5 8.1 0.1 5.9 -1.6 22.2 1.8

203.1 2.5 23.5 5.2 179.7 2.2 10.7 6.2 35.3 2.9 6.2 25.5 3.2 2.9 1.7 7.2 3 34.7 2.5 32.6 1.5 19.9 1.3 8.1 0.4 5.9 -1.3 22.4 2.1

204.3 2.5 23.7 4.6 180.6 2.2 10.9 6.5 35.5 2.5 6.3 25.6 3.2 2.9 2 7.3 2.8 34.9 2.2 32.6 1.4 20 1.9 8.1 0.7 5.9 -1 22.5 2.4

205.5 2.5 24 4.4 181.5 2.3 11.1 7.1 35.7 2.4 6.3 25.7 3.2 2.9 2 7.3 2.4 35.1 2.6 32.7 1.3 20.1 1.8 8.1 0.8 5.9 -0.8 22.7 2.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

196 -3.4 21.7 -6.6 174.3 -3 11 -11.5 33.8 -1.9 5.8 24.7 2.9 2.8 0.2 7.2 -7.8 32.8 -3.6 30.7 0.7 19.7 -5.6 8.1 -0.2 6 -0.5 22.2 -2.1

194.3 -3.4 21.7 -4.9 172.6 -3.3 10.7 -12.9 33.6 -1.9 5.8 24.2 2.9 2.8 -3.6 7.1 -4.6 32 -5.5 30.7 0.6 19.6 -4.7 8 0.5 6.1 0 22.1 -2.3

194.6 -2.4 21.6 -3.3 173.1 -2.2 10.4 -11.5 33.6 -1.5 5.7 24.2 2.9 2.7 -6.8 7.1 -4.2 32.1 -5.7 31 1.7 19.7 -1.9 8 -1.1 6.6 8.2 22 -0.9

15344.4 15367.6 15437.9 15500.5 15552.8 15641.3 15761.1 15909.8 544.8 542.1 540.3 539.6 539.6 539.7 539.9 540.3 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.2 -1 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 264.2 263.2 263.1 263.2 263.5 263.8 263.9 264.3 -1.5 -1.7 -1.6 -0.7 -0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 11.1 11.8 11.7 11.5 11.4 11.2 10.9 10.5 1259 1554 1860 2086 2383 2800 3321 3888 1216 1514 1847 2048 2398 2856 3387 3866 43 40 13 38 -15 -56 -66 22

*Quarterly at an annual rate

72

194.8 -1.3 21.6 -1.5 173.2 -1.2 10.2 -10.3 33.7 -1.4 5.7 24.3 2.9 2.7 -5.4 6.9 -3.9 32.5 -1.4 31.2 2 19.8 0 8 0 6.3 2.3 21.9 -1.6

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

16066 16200.7 16359.5 16511.1 16650.7 16762.6 540.9 541.7 543 544.4 545.9 547.6 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 264.7 265.5 266.5 267.5 268.6 269.8 0.5 0.6 1 1.2 1.5 1.7 10.2 9.9 9.6 9.2 9 8.7 4338 4655 4963 5243 5403 5516 4218 4416 4637 4804 4858 4868 120 239 326 439 545 649

P a l m B a y – Me l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

December 2009 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

14.2 4.7 7 7.2 13.8 3.3 28.7 27.8 35.6 3.7

15.1 6 7.5 7.5 14.3 3.8 29.8 28.3 37.5 5.4

16.3 7.9 8.2 8 15 5.2 31.4 29.1 39.3 4.7

17.5 7.6 8.9 8.6 15.7 4.5 33.2 29.8 41 4.5

18.8 7.7 9.4 9.5 16.5 4.8 35.4 31 42.5 3.7

19.2 2.1 9.5 9.8 16.4 -0.6 35.9 30.6 43.6 2.5

19.3 0.3 9.2 10.1 15.9 -2.9 35.9 29.6 43.8 0.5

18.7 -3 8.8 10 15.8 -0.5 34.7 29.3 43.5 -0.8

19 1.4 8.9 10.1 17.1 8.3 35.1 31.7 44.8 3

19.8 4.5 9.2 10.7 17.6 3 36.7 32.6 45.7 2.1

21 5.8 9.6 11.4 18.4 4.4 38.6 33.9 46.6 2

22.1 5.2 10.1 12 19.1 3.9 40.1 34.8 47.9 2.7

217.4 1.7 24.6 2.7 192.9 1.6 18.1 5 37.4 1 5.5 28.3 3.6 2.9 0.1 8.6 2.4 38.4 -1 28.2 3.1 22.5 3.3 8.1 -0.7 6.2 1.7 22.6 1.7

213.8 -1.7 24.1 -1.8 189.7 -1.6 15.4 -15 36.9 -1.5 5.6 28 3.3 2.9 -2.6 8.6 0.3 36.9 -3.9 29.3 4 22.9 1.5 8 -1 6.2 0.5 22.8 1.1

207.5 -3 23.7 -1.8 183.8 -3.1 13.1 -14.9 35.5 -3.7 5.7 26.8 3.1 2.8 -0.3 8.2 -5.2 35 -5.2 30.5 4.3 21.7 -5 8.1 1.2 6.2 0 22.8 -0.3

198.4 -4.4 22.2 -6.4 176.3 -4.1 11.6 -11.5 34.1 -4 5.8 25.3 2.9 2.9 0.9 7.3 -10.5 33.4 -4.4 30.6 0.1 20 -7.7 8.1 -0.3 6.1 -1.9 22.3 -1.9

194.7 -1.9 21.6 -2.4 173.1 -1.8 10.3 -10.8 33.7 -1.2 5.7 24.3 2.9 2.7 -4.6 7 -4.3 32.3 -3.2 31.1 1.6 19.7 -1.6 8 -0.2 6.2 2.9 22 -1.6

197.6 1.5 22.2 2.8 175.3 1.3 10.1 -2.5 34.2 1.7 5.9 24.8 3 2.8 3.7 7 0.1 33.6 4.1 31.9 2.7 19.7 0 8.1 0.4 6 -4.3 21.9 -0.4

202.4 2.5 23.4 5 179.1 2.1 10.6 5.4 35.2 2.7 6.2 25.5 3.1 2.9 2.3 7.2 3.1 34.6 2.7 32.5 1.8 19.9 0.9 8.1 0.3 5.9 -1.6 22.3 1.9

207.1 2.3 24.3 3.8 182.9 2.1 11.3 6.7 36 2.4 6.4 25.9 3.3 3 1.8 7.3 1.7 35.4 2.5 32.9 1.2 20.1 1.2 8.1 0.6 5.8 -1 22.9 2.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

193.8 -0.4 22.9 -3.9 170.9 0.1 12.7 -3.1 34.7 -0.1 4.8 26.6 3.3 2.8 -10.8 7.3 3.4 33.4 -2.2 25.3 3.5 19.9 0.1 7.6 1 5.7 -1.8 21.6 2.9

197.9 2.1 22.8 -0.5 175.1 2.4 13 2.3 34.2 -1.6 4.6 26.3 3.3 2.8 0 7.3 0.7 34.7 4.1 26.7 5.7 20.2 1.7 8.2 8.4 5.7 1.2 22.1 2.6

206.6 4.4 23.6 3.8 183 4.5 14.8 13.6 35.5 3.7 4.7 27.2 3.6 2.8 -0.9 7.8 5.8 37.1 6.8 26.8 0.3 21.1 4.4 8.4 1.6 5.9 3.9 22.9 3.3

213.8 3.5 23.9 1.2 189.8 3.7 17.2 16.2 37.1 4.5 5.2 28 3.8 2.9 6 8.4 7.8 38.7 4.5 27.3 1.8 21.8 3.3 8.1 -2.8 6.1 1.8 22.2 -2.8

12105.4 12830.2 13908.1 14984.9 15521.7 15419.1 15555.8 15225.2 15464.7 15844.6 16430.5 16925.1 495.4 504.9 517 526.3 531.4 535 536.7 539.9 540.4 540.2 543.8 550.2 1.7 1.9 2.4 1.8 1 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.1 0 0.7 1.2 238.2 242 247.6 256.2 261.8 263.9 267.8 266 263.2 264.2 267 271.8 1.1 1.6 2.3 3.5 2.2 0.8 1.5 -0.7 -1.1 0.4 1.1 1.8 5.7 5.2 4.4 3.6 3.3 4.3 6.5 10.6 11.6 10.7 9.4 8.5 6591 6115 8212 8487 5346 2815 1789 1049 1971 3587 5066 5713 5091 5578 6313 7206 4370 2209 1292 926 1952 3582 4679 4967 1500 537 1899 1281 977 606 496 123 19 5 387 745

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

73

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

P r o fi l e s The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is comprised of Escambia County and Santa Rosa County. Located in the northwest corner of the state bordering Alabama, this region is home to the Pensacola Naval Air Station, Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval Aviation. This area has been referred to as the “Cradle of Naval Aviation.”

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 453,451 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Escambia County population estimate of 306,407 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Santa Rosa County population estimate of 147,044 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 208,802 in January 2008 for the MSA (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 4.2% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted.

This amounts to 8,857 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Local Government – 15,790 employees • Federal Government – 7,403 employees • State Government – 5,970 employees • Sacred Heart Health System – 3,500 employees • Baptist Health Care – 3,470 employees • University of West Florida – 2,267 employees • Solutia, Inc. – 1,800 employees • Lakeview – 1,500 employees • Gulf Power Company – 1,400 employees • West Florida Hospital – 1,200 employees Source: Greater Pensacola Chamber of Commerce

74

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Pensacola—Ferry Pass—Brent MSA is expected to see low levels of growth in the economic indicators, relative to other metro areas. Personal income growth is expected to average 3.7 percent each year, the lowest in the state. The per capita income level, also among the lowest in the state, is expected to be 29.4.

The average annual wage growth rate should be at 2.1 percent, tied for lowest in the state. The average annual wage level is expected to be 39.4. Population growth will be at a rate of 0.4 percent, the second lowest in the state, and the Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 10,905.03 (Mill).

Employment growth is expected to averaging 0.6 percent each year, among the lowest in the state. The unemployment rate will average 8.5 percent.

Education and Health Services will be the fastest growing sector in Pensacola, with 1.4 percent average annual growth. Professional & Business Services and Manufacturing follow with growth rates of 1.3 percent each. The Construction & Mining and Federal Government sectors will experience the greatest declines, with average annual growth rates of -0.5 percent and -1.4 percent, respectively.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Good grades add up for Escambia, Santa Rosa County schools • The Escambia County School District will be awarded approximately $2.1 million this year for 38 schools that either were A schools or moved up at least a letter grade from the previous year.

• The awards, which come from the Florida School Recognition Program, are based on enrollment, and range from $5,000 to more than $140,000 per school.

• The School District earned about $350,000 more than last year.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, October 13, 2009

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Gulf Breeze OKs search for parking garage plan • The Gulf Breeze City Council gave city staff the approval to seek architects’ design proposals for a $5-million parking garage for the Quietwater project in Gulf Breeze.

Gulf Power rates will increase in 2010 • The Florida Public Service Commission approved a 1.5% increase in Gulf Power Co.’s power rate.

• The city-owned parking garage will serve the 80,000-square-foot office building that is to be built at the Quietwater Office Park.

• The rate increase, effective January 1, 2010, along with fuel costs falling 6.5%, will offset costs associated with the installation and operation of new technology necessary for emission reduction.

• The project is expected to create more than 100 new jobs and become a major contribution to the local economy.

• The state-of-the-art technology, a $500-million scrubber system, will reduce emissions by about 90%.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, November 17, 2009

Source: Pensacola News Journal, December 2, 2009

Southwest Escambia park receives stimulus money • The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has awarded Tarkiln Bayou Preserve State Park $200,000 in federal stimulus money from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. • The funds will be used for restoring and enhancing portions of Tarkiln Bayou, an undeveloped estuary in southwest Escambia County.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, November 20, 2009 New UWF building on cutting edge • The University of West Florida is in the process of building a $31 million, four-story, 95,000square-foot School of Science and Engineering building.

• The building, which will meet environmentally friendly standards, will include a “holodeck,” a 985-square-foot virtual-reality classroom that provides students with 3-D interaction.

• Construction of the building, funded by the Florida Legislature, began in March 2008 and is set to open to students this spring.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, November 28, 2009

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

75

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

10.0%

0.6

1.4

1.6

Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product 11500.0

(Millions 2000 $)

11000.0

9000.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Pensacola Unemployment Rate

8500.0

Pensacola Payroll Employment (Thousands)

170.0 165.0 160.0 155.0

76

1.2

9500.0

4.0%

150.0

1

10000.0

6.0%

175.0

0.8

10500.0

8.0%

2.0%

0.4

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Pensacola Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Pensacola Real Personal Income 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL*

December 2009 Forecast

2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

14.1 -2.2 6.5 7.6 12.8 7.5 30.8 27.9 37.6 -0.3

14.1 -0.4 6.5 7.6 12.8 8.9 30.8 27.9 37.9 2.3

14.2 0.5 6.6 7.7 12.9 10.1 31.1 28.2 38.2 2.8

14.4 1.7 6.6 7.8 12.9 11.8 31.5 28.4 38.5 3.1

14.5 2.4 6.6 7.8 13 1.5 31.7 28.4 38.6 2.6

14.6 3.5 6.7 7.9 13 2.2 32 28.6 38.8 2.3

14.7 3.5 6.7 8 13.1 2 32.3 28.7 38.9 1.8

14.9 3.7 6.8 8.1 13.2 2.2 32.6 29 39 1.4

15.1 4.4 6.8 8.3 13.3 2.9 33 29.2 39.2 1.4

15.3 4.8 6.9 8.4 13.5 3.3 33.4 29.4 39.3 1.4

15.5 5.3 6.9 8.6 13.6 3.9 33.8 29.7 39.5 1.5

15.7 5.3 7 8.7 13.8 4 34.2 29.9 39.7 1.7

15.9 5.1 7.1 8.8 13.9 3.8 34.4 30.1 39.9 1.8

16 4.9 7.1 8.9 14 3.6 34.7 30.2 40.1 2.1

158.5 -1 5.7 -0.5 152.8 -1.1 9.9 -8.8 32 -0.3 6 21 4.5 3 -2.9 8.2 -5 18.8 -1 28.6 1.8 16.7 0.2 7.3 0.5 6.4 0.7 21.8 -2.2

158.8 0 5.7 0.3 153.1 0 9.8 -7.1 32.1 0.8 6 21.1 4.5 3.1 -0.4 8.2 -4 19 3.3 28.7 2.2 16.7 0.6 7.3 0.9 6.4 -0.8 21.8 -1.9

159.5 0.4 5.7 1.2 153.7 0.3 9.8 -4.1 32.3 1.4 6.1 21.1 4.6 3.1 4 8.3 -1.8 19.2 4.1 29 2.4 16.7 0 7.3 0.8 6.3 -9.3 21.8 -1.5

160.3 1 5.8 2.5 154.5 1 9.9 -1.4 32.4 1.6 6.2 21.2 4.7 3.2 5.4 8.4 1 19.4 4 29.2 2.5 16.7 -0.7 7.3 0.5 6.3 -4.9 21.8 -0.6

161.1 1.6 5.9 3.3 155.2 1.6 10 0.7 32.7 2.3 6.3 21.4 4.8 3.2 4.4 8.4 3.1 19.6 4.2 29.2 2.4 16.6 -0.6 7.3 0.3 6.2 -3.1 21.9 0.1

161.7 1.8 5.9 3.8 155.8 1.7 10.1 3.1 33 2.5 6.3 21.6 4.8 3.2 3.7 8.5 3 19.7 3.4 29.3 2 16.7 -0.2 7.3 0.1 6.2 -2.6 21.9 0.7

162.6 2 6 4.3 156.6 1.9 10.3 4.7 33.2 2.9 6.4 21.7 4.9 3.2 2.3 8.5 2.6 19.7 2.8 29.4 1.5 16.8 0.4 7.3 0.2 6.2 -2 22 1.2

163.4 2 6 4.2 157.4 1.9 10.4 5.5 33.3 2.8 6.4 21.7 5 3.2 1.1 8.6 2.6 19.9 2.3 29.5 1.1 16.8 1.1 7.3 0.4 6.2 -1.6 22.1 1.5

164.2 1.9 6.1 3.5 158.1 1.8 10.6 5.7 33.5 2.4 6.5 21.8 5 3.2 1.4 8.6 2.3 20 1.8 29.5 0.9 16.9 1.7 7.3 0.6 6.2 -1.3 22.2 1.8

164.8 1.9 6.1 3.2 158.7 1.9 10.8 6.3 33.7 2.2 6.5 21.9 5.1 3.2 1.4 8.7 1.9 20.1 2.2 29.5 0.8 16.9 1.6 7.3 0.6 6.1 -1.1 22.3 1.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

160.2 -2.8 5.7 -8.5 154.5 -2.6 10.9 -9.4 32.1 0.6 6.1 21.1 4.6 3.1 -7.4 8.6 -3.4 19 -6 28.1 -0.2 16.7 -4 7.2 -1.8 6.4 -1.3 22.3 -1.8

158.8 -2.9 5.7 -6.3 153.1 -2.7 10.6 -9.4 31.9 -1.6 6.1 20.7 4.6 3.1 -6.2 8.6 -3.1 18.4 -5.5 28.1 -0.1 16.6 -5.2 7.2 0.2 6.4 -1.2 22.2 -0.5

158.9 -2 5.7 -4.1 153.2 -1.9 10.2 -9.7 31.8 -2.7 6.1 20.7 4.5 3 -8.2 8.5 -1.8 18.4 -4.3 28.3 1.1 16.7 -2.4 7.2 -0.3 7 7.3 22.1 -0.7

158.6 -1.7 5.7 -2.2 153 -1.7 10 -10.8 31.9 -1.7 6 20.8 4.5 3 -6 8.3 -4.5 18.7 -2.4 28.5 1.7 16.8 0.1 7.2 0 6.6 1.9 21.9 -2.1

10478.3 10479.2 10517.1 10545.3 10561.9 10610.6 10683.4 10771.1 10861.4 10933.7 11021.4 11101.6 11173.8 11224.1 458.7 457.7 456.9 456.4 456.2 456.2 456.3 456.7 457.2 457.8 458.7 459.6 460.7 461.8 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.2 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 206.9 206.2 206.2 206.2 206.3 206.4 206.5 206.6 206.9 207.3 208 208.6 209.3 210 -2 -3 -2.1 -1 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 9.8 10 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.4 9.2 8.9 8.6 8.4 8.1 7.8 7.6 7.4 1158 1275 1429 1480 1629 1844 2082 2283 2457 2558 2666 2711 2757 2782 1145 1257 1408 1452 1596 1802 2031 2217 2378 2461 2558 2585 2616 2630 14 19 21 27 32 42 51 66 79 97 109 126 141 152

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

77

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

December 2009 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

10.8 4 5.2 5.6 10.4 2.6 25.1 24.3 30.2 1.2

11.3 4.8 5.5 5.8 10.7 2.7 26 24.6 31.4 3.7

12.1 7.2 5.9 6.2 11.2 4.4 27.4 25.4 33.2 5.9

12.9 7.1 6.3 6.7 11.6 4 29.1 26.1 34.5 4

14 8.6 6.8 7.3 12.3 5.7 31.2 27.3 36.2 5

14.4 2.8 6.9 7.5 12.3 0.1 32 27.2 37 2.2

14.5 0.6 6.8 7.7 12 -2.7 32.1 26.4 37.7 2

14.1 -2.7 6.5 7.6 11.9 -0.2 31 26.2 37.3 -1.2

14.3 1.1 6.6 7.7 12.9 7.9 31.3 28.2 38.3 2.7

14.8 3.8 6.7 8.1 13.2 2.3 32.5 28.9 39 1.7

15.6 5.1 7 8.6 13.7 3.8 34 29.8 39.6 1.6

16.3 4.6 7.2 9.1 14.1 3.3 35.2 30.5 40.5 2.3

173.9 2.6 7.4 -1.4 166.5 2.8 15.3 10.4 33 -0.2 6.2 21.8 5 3.8 0.7 8.9 8.4 23.2 0.5 27.5 5.9 17.7 2.5 7.8 0 6.7 0.4 22.5 1.4

174 0.1 7 -5.2 167 0.3 14.8 -3.9 33.8 2.5 6.7 22.2 4.9 3.6 -5.7 9.2 3.1 22.3 -4.2 28.7 4.3 17.7 0 7.8 -0.4 6.6 -2.5 22.7 1.1

167.4 -3.8 6.5 -7.3 160.9 -3.6 12.8 -13.4 32.5 -3.9 6.2 21.5 4.9 3.5 -2.5 8.9 -3.3 20.9 -6.1 28.1 -2 17.6 -0.2 7.5 -3.8 6.5 -0.7 22.6 -0.5

161.8 -3.4 5.9 -10 155.9 -3.1 11.3 -11.7 32.4 -0.3 6.1 21.5 4.7 3.2 -7.4 8.7 -2 19.2 -8 28 -0.2 17 -3.5 7.2 -3.3 6.5 -0.8 22.3 -1.3

158.7 -1.9 5.7 -3.3 153 -1.9 10.2 -9.7 31.9 -1.6 6.1 20.8 4.5 3 -5.9 8.4 -3.6 18.6 -3.3 28.3 1.1 16.7 -1.8 7.2 0.1 6.6 2.1 22 -1.4

159.9 0.8 5.8 1.8 154.1 0.7 9.9 -3 32.4 1.5 6.1 21.2 4.6 3.1 3.3 8.3 -0.5 19.3 3.9 29 2.4 16.7 -0.2 7.3 0.6 6.3 -4.6 21.8 -1

163 1.9 6 4 157 1.8 10.4 4.8 33.2 2.6 6.4 21.7 4.9 3.2 2.1 8.6 2.6 19.8 2.6 29.4 1.4 16.8 0.7 7.3 0.3 6.2 -1.9 22.1 1.3

165.8 1.7 6.2 2.8 159.6 1.7 11 5.9 34 2.1 6.6 22 5.1 3.2 1.3 8.7 1.2 20.2 2.1 29.6 0.7 17 1 7.3 0.4 6.1 -1.2 22.5 1.9

9679.8 10255.4 10560.7 10933.1 10722.9 10612.4 10403.1 10525.9 10731.6 11057.6 434.2 440.3 445.4 450.4 451.6 453.2 455.8 456.8 456.6 459.2 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.2 -0.1 0.6 191.1 193.8 199.7 205 209 209.7 209.6 206.2 206.6 208.3 2.1 1.4 3.1 2.6 2 0.3 -0.1 -1.6 0.2 0.8 4.8 4.6 3.8 3.1 3.8 5.8 9.4 9.8 9 8 4426 4713 3764 2765 2469 1412 1056 1453 2167 2673 3558 3629 3285 2325 1779 1203 988 1428 2107 2555 868 1083 479 440 691 209 68 25 59 118

11305 463.6 1 211.1 1.4 7.2 2839 2676 163

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

78

155.4 -0.3 7.3 -7.1 148.1 0.1 11.1 -13.4 29.9 0.2 5.3 20.5 4.1 4.2 13.6 6.5 -6 19.2 5.4 25.3 4.6 15.7 -0.2 7.7 2.9 6.9 -6.2 21.6 -0.8 9321.7 428.3 1.7 187.3 0.5 5.3 3141 2955 186

159.3 2.5 7.4 1.1 151.9 2.5 10.8 -2.8 30.2 1 5.3 20.8 4.1 4.1 -2 6.8 4.6 20.1 4.6 26.8 6.2 16.6 6.1 7.9 2.6 6.9 -0.5 21.6 0

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

163.7 2.8 7.3 -1.3 156.4 3 11.6 7.8 31.2 3.1 5.6 21.1 4.5 3.9 -4.5 7.5 9.8 21.6 7.2 26.7 -0.4 17.4 4.7 7.9 0.9 6.7 -2.2 21.8 0.9

169.5 3.5 7.5 3.1 161.9 3.6 13.9 19.4 33.1 6.1 6.2 21.9 5 3.7 -4.7 8.2 9.9 23.1 7.1 26 -2.9 17.3 -0.9 7.8 -1.6 6.7 -0.5 22.2 1.9

T a l l aha s s ee

P r o fi l e s The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla counties. It is located between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State University and Florida A&M University.

Quick Facts: • • • • • • •

Metro population estimate of 352,319 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) Gadsden County population estimate of 47,197 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) Jefferson County population estimate of 14,451 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau)

Leon County population estimate of 260,945 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) Wakulla County population estimate of 29,726 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) An MSA civilian labor force of 186,760 in January 2008 (Florida Research and Economic Database) An unemployment rate of 3.3% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 6,153 unemployed people for the entire region.

(Florida Research and Economic Database)

Top Area Employers: • • • • • • • • • •

State Government (all departments) – 46,200 employees Local Government (all departments) – 16,100 employees Tallahassee Memorial Healthcare – 2,750 employees Federal Government (all departments) – 1,900 employees Alltel Florida, Inc. – 1,000 employees Tallahassee Leon County Civic Center - 672 employees Quincy Corp. - 575 employees Capital Regional Medical Center - 572 employees Meridian Healthcare Group - 500 employees Branch Banking & Trust Co. - 403 employees Sources: Florida Regional Economic Database and Tallahassee Economic Development Council

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Tallahassee MSA is expected to show minimal growth in the economic indicators relative to other metro areas in the state. The area should see personal income growth averaging 3.8 percent each year, one of the lowest in the state. Per capita income levels should average 30.0 each year. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.5 percent, and the average annual wage level will be 40.9. Population growth will be at 0.8 percent, and the Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 95,795.08 (Mill).

Employment growth is expected to be 0.5 percent each year, the lowest in the state. The unemployment rate, however, will average 6.3 percent, tied for lowest in the state.

Manufacturing will be the fastest growing sector in Tallahassee, averaging 2.3 percent annually.

Education & Health Services and Professional & Business Services follow with growth rates of 1.3 percent each. Construction & Mining, Federal Government, and the Financial sectors are the only sectors that will experience negative growth rates, with annual growth rates of -0.4 percent, -0.7 percent, and -0.8 percent, respectively.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s TCC awarded $1.7 million • The U.S Army Research Office awarded $1.7 million to Tallahassee Community College to support the Advanced Manufacturing Training Center. The center will provide job training and job creation in manufacturing and related technologies.

• In collaboration with community partners, the center will train students and existing workers for current manufacturing positions, as well as those with new businesses.

• The Center will provide an incubator to help develop businesses with potential to increase employment in the community.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, October 26, 2009 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

79

T a l l aha s s ee

Big Bend gets $20M for Smart Grid • Tallahassee, Quincy, and Talquin Electric Cooperative have been awarded $20 million in federal stimulus money, as part of the $3.4 billion in federal grants designated to promote Smart Grid technologies.

• Tallahassee’s $8.89 million will go to the city’s energy program that includes smart thermostats and advanced load control systems, targeting both residential and commercial customers.

• Talquin will receive $8.1 million for a smart meter network system for 56,000 customers.

Quincy will receive $2.4 million for a smart grid network that includes two-way communication and reduced pricing for utility bills.

• The federal investment will create tens of thousands of jobs; the new technology will decrease energy bills and build the necessary infrastructure for new energy sources.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, October 28, 2009 Gadsden, HCA to negotiate hospital contract • Hospital Corporation of America, owner of Capital Regional Medical Center in Tallahassee, will be in negotiations over an operations contract for Gadsden Community Hospital.

• In 2005, the hospital was shut down due to operating deficiencies. It has been renovated this year with funds from a half-percent local sales tax enacted in August 2008.

• Gadsden Hospital Inc., the board currently overseeing the facility, cannot operate it on an inactive state license. If HCA becomes the new operator, it can apply for a change in license status.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, November 7, 2009

80

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

Census Bureau has job openings to fill • The Census Bureau will have between 1,000 to 1,200 temporary positions available for citizens to take part in the census count in Leon and surrounding counties. Most jobs will start in February and end in July, with a starting salary of $12.25 an hour.

• Though the census is providing jobs during a time when unemployment is high, funds to pay workers are not related to the $787-billion federal stimulus.

• Census data is used to estimate federal funding of local programs. An accurate count assures fair distribution of resources.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, November 16, 2009 Tenure in the spotlight at Florida State University • FSU turned to layoffs and program eliminations in response to the $82 million reduction in state revenue since the 2007-08 school year.

• The layoff notices were sent to over 50 professors and staff, including 21 tenured faculty members.

More tenured faculty members are scheduled to be laid off at FSU than at all of the 10 other universities in the State University System combined.

• United Faculty of Florida, representing college professors, is asking the university to cancel the layoffs, particularly those of tenured faculty.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, November 16, 2009

T a l l aha s s ee Tallahassee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.5

Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Tallahassee Unemployment Rate

1

180.0 175.0 170.0 165.0 160.0 155.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Tallahassee Payroll Employment

2

2.5

3

Tampa Real Gross Metro Product 105000.0 100000.0 95000.0 90000.0 85000.0 80000.0 75000.0 70000.0 65000.0

Tallahassee Payroll Employment (Thousands)

1.5

(Millions 2000 $)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Tallahassee Real Personal Income 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

81

T a l l aha s s ee

Quarterly Outlook for Tallahassee, FL*

December 2009 Forecast

2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

11.6 -1.7 6.7 4.9 10.5 7.9 31.6 28.6 38.8 -0.1

11.6 0 6.7 4.9 10.5 9.3 31.6 28.6 39.1 2.5

11.7 1.1 6.7 5 10.6 10.8 31.9 28.9 39.5 3.2

11.8 2.2 6.7 5.1 10.6 12.3 32.3 29 39.8 3.5

11.9 2.8 6.8 5.1 10.7 1.9 32.4 29.1 40 3.1

12 3.7 6.8 5.2 10.7 2.4 32.7 29.2 40.2 2.7

12.1 3.6 6.9 5.2 10.8 2.1 33 29.4 40.3 2.2

12.2 3.7 6.9 5.3 10.9 2.1 33.3 29.6 40.5 1.8

12.4 4.3 7 5.4 11 2.7 33.7 29.8 40.7 1.8

12.6 4.7 7 5.5 11.1 3.2 34.1 30 40.9 1.8

12.7 5.1 7.1 5.6 11.2 3.7 34.5 30.3 41.1 2

12.9 5.3 7.2 5.7 11.3 4 34.8 30.5 41.4 2.1

13 5.2 7.3 5.8 11.4 3.9 35.1 30.6 41.6 2.3

13.2 5 7.3 5.8 11.5 3.7 35.4 30.8 41.9 2.5

168.6 -1.3 3.9 0.6 164.7 -1.3 6.7 -8.5 22.1 -0.2 3.4 16.4 1.9 3.3 -3.3 6.7 -4.6 18.5 -1.5 19.4 1.9 16.6 -0.1 9.3 0.6 2 0.7 60.2 -2

168.8 -0.3 3.9 0.9 164.9 -0.3 6.6 -6.4 22.2 0.9 3.4 16.5 1.9 3.3 -1.1 6.7 -3.7 18.7 3.3 19.5 2.1 16.5 0.7 9.4 1.1 2 -1 60 -1.8

169.3 0.2 3.9 1.5 165.3 0.2 6.6 -3.5 22.3 1.2 3.4 16.5 2 3.4 3.6 6.8 -1.7 18.9 4.2 19.7 2.3 16.5 0.1 9.4 1 1.9 -9.2 59.9 -1.5

170 0.7 4 2.9 166 0.7 6.7 -0.8 22.4 1.2 3.5 16.6 2 3.4 5.6 6.8 0.7 19.2 4.2 19.8 2.3 16.5 -0.8 9.4 0.7 1.9 -4.9 60 -0.7

170.7 1.2 4 4.1 166.6 1.1 6.8 1.1 22.5 1.8 3.5 16.8 2 3.5 4.8 6.9 2.6 19.4 4.6 19.8 2.3 16.4 -0.7 9.4 0.5 1.9 -3 60.1 -0.1

171.2 1.4 4.1 4.8 167.1 1.3 6.8 3.2 22.7 2 3.5 16.9 2.1 3.5 4.1 6.9 2.6 19.4 3.8 19.8 1.9 16.5 -0.3 9.4 0.4 1.9 -2.4 60.2 0.4

172.1 1.7 4.2 5.6 168 1.6 6.9 4.6 22.8 2.5 3.6 17 2.1 3.5 2.4 6.9 2.3 19.5 3.1 19.9 1.4 16.6 0.3 9.4 0.5 1.9 -1.6 60.5 1

172.9 1.7 4.2 5.5 168.7 1.6 7 5.3 22.9 2.4 3.6 17 2.1 3.5 1 7 2.4 19.6 2.4 20 0.9 16.6 1.1 9.4 0.8 1.9 -1.3 60.8 1.3

173.7 1.8 4.2 4.7 169.5 1.7 7.1 5.3 23 2.1 3.6 17 2.1 3.5 1.3 7 2.1 19.7 1.8 20 0.8 16.7 1.7 9.5 0.9 1.9 -1 61.1 1.7

174.4 1.8 4.3 4.2 170.1 1.8 7.2 5.9 23.1 1.9 3.6 17.1 2.2 3.5 1.4 7 1.6 19.8 2.1 20 0.7 16.7 1.6 9.5 0.9 1.9 -0.9 61.3 1.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

170.8 -2 3.9 -8.9 167 -1.9 7.3 -8.7 22.2 -4.7 3.4 16.5 2 3.4 -6.1 7 -10.3 18.8 -4.1 19 -0.5 16.6 1 9.3 -1.1 2 -2 61.4 0.8

169.2 -2.9 3.9 -6.3 165.4 -2.8 7.1 -8.8 22 -5.3 3.4 16.2 1.9 3.4 -2.5 7 -8.7 18.1 -5.8 19.1 0 16.4 -1.5 9.3 -0.4 2 2.8 61.1 -1.2

169 -2.1 3.9 -2.5 165.1 -2.1 6.9 -9 22 -6.3 3.4 16.2 1.9 3.3 -2.8 6.9 -5.1 18.1 -5.3 19.2 1.2 16.5 -0.5 9.3 -0.3 2.1 12.5 60.8 -0.5

10271.5 10261.1 10294.8 10322.8 10336.2 10377.6 10446.9 10534.2 10621.4 10690.8 10773.3 366.1 365.7 365.7 366 366.4 366.7 367 367.3 367.8 368.5 369.4 1.9 1.5 1.3 1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 186 185.1 185 184.9 185 185.1 185.2 185.3 185.5 186 186.5 -2.4 -3.5 -2.9 -1.8 -0.6 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 7.5 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.1 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.3 6.2 6 856 984 1129 1185 1311 1509 1704 1871 2039 2148 2279 789 895 1036 1094 1219 1392 1575 1714 1855 1928 2018 67 88 93 91 92 117 129 157 184 220 261

*Quarterly at an annual rate

82

168.8 -1.9 3.9 -0.8 164.9 -2 6.7 -10.7 22.1 -1.8 3.4 16.3 1.9 3.3 -6.2 6.8 -4.3 18.4 -3.2 19.3 1.7 16.6 -0.3 9.3 0 2 1.8 60.4 -2.1

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

10849 10918.1 10964.4 370.4 371.4 372.3 0.8 1 1 187.1 187.6 188.2 1 1.1 1.2 5.8 5.6 5.5 2401 2469 2510 2085 2102 2100 317 367 410

T a l l aha s s ee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

December 2009 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

8.6 2.7 5.4 3.2 8.4 1.4 26.3 25.4 32.7 3.2

9 4.3 5.6 3.4 8.5 2.2 27 25.6 33.6 2.7

9.7 8.2 5.9 3.8 9 5.4 28.8 26.7 35 4.1

10.5 7.5 6.2 4.2 9.4 4.4 30.6 27.5 35.8 2.5

11.1 6.4 6.5 4.6 9.7 3.6 32 28 36.8 2.7

11.6 4.3 6.8 4.8 9.9 1.5 32.8 27.9 38 3.3

11.8 1.6 6.9 4.9 9.7 -1.7 33 27.2 38.6 1.5

11.6 -2.1 6.7 4.9 9.8 0.4 31.9 26.9 38.4 -0.5

11.7 1.5 6.7 5 10.6 8.4 32.1 28.9 39.6 3.1

12.2 3.8 6.9 5.3 10.8 2.3 33.2 29.5 40.4 2.1

12.8 5.1 7.1 5.6 11.2 3.7 34.6 30.4 41.3 2

13.4 4.8 7.5 5.9 11.6 3.5 35.9 31.1 42.4 2.7

177 2.4 4.5 4.9 172.5 2.4 9.8 4.8 25.6 0.9 3.7 19.4 2.4 3.9 -4.7 8.3 4.4 20.1 4.9 17.4 3.4 16.2 3.3 8.5 5.8 1.9 -1.7 60.8 1.2

179 1.1 4.6 2.8 174.4 1.1 9.5 -3 25.3 -1.2 3.8 19.2 2.4 4 2.6 8.2 -1.9 19.9 -1.1 18.1 3.9 16.7 3.7 9 5.9 1.9 0 61.8 1.6

176.9 -1.2 4.4 -4.8 172.5 -1.1 8.6 -9.6 24.2 -4.4 3.6 18.5 2.1 3.8 -3.7 8 -1.8 19.6 -1.2 18.9 4.5 16.5 -1.7 9.4 5.1 2 4 61.4 -0.6

172.5 -2.5 4 -8.7 168.5 -2.3 7.5 -12.3 22.9 -5.6 3.5 17.3 2 3.4 -10.6 7.3 -9.7 19 -3.1 19 0.6 16.6 1 9.3 -1.2 1.9 -1.8 61.5 0.1

168.9 -2.1 3.9 -2.3 165 -2.1 6.8 -9.3 22.1 -3.5 3.4 16.3 1.9 3.3 -3.7 6.8 -5.8 18.3 -4 19.3 1.2 16.5 -0.6 9.3 0 2 4.4 60.6 -1.4

169.7 0.5 4 2.3 165.7 0.4 6.7 -2.5 22.3 1.3 3.4 16.6 2 3.4 3.2 6.8 -0.6 19 4.1 19.7 2.3 16.5 -0.2 9.4 0.8 1.9 -4.6 60 -1

172.5 1.7 4.2 5.2 168.3 1.6 7 4.6 22.9 2.3 3.6 17 2.1 3.5 2.2 7 2.4 19.5 2.8 19.9 1.2 16.6 0.7 9.4 0.6 1.9 -1.6 60.6 1.1

175.4 1.7 4.3 3.9 171.1 1.7 7.4 5.5 23.3 1.9 3.7 17.2 2.2 3.5 1.3 7 1 20 2.1 20.1 0.6 16.8 1 9.5 0.6 1.9 -1.1 61.7 1.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

164.4 -0.9 4.1 -6.6 160.2 -0.8 7.2 3.5 23.4 -3.1 3.2 18.1 2.1 4 -13.4 7.4 7.4 18.2 -2.7 16.5 -1.8 13.4 3.2 8.1 -0.2 1.9 2.2 60.1 -0.5

165.7 0.8 4.1 -0.6 161.6 0.8 7.7 7.1 23.5 0.5 3 18.5 2 3.8 -3.8 7.7 3 18.2 -0.1 16.7 1.1 13.6 1.6 7.8 -3.7 2 3 60.6 0.8

9378.9 328.3 1.1 172.5 0 4.5 2661 2177 483

9572.3 333.2 1.5 173.4 0.5 4.2 3822 2424 1398

168.2 1.5 4.2 2 163.9 1.5 8.3 8.6 24.6 4.4 3.3 19.1 2.1 4 4.6 7.6 -0.7 18.2 -0.2 16.4 -1.7 14.4 6.1 8 2.8 1.9 -3.3 60.5 -0.1

172.8 2.8 4.2 0.8 168.5 2.8 9.4 12.4 25.4 3.4 3.6 19.3 2.5 4.1 1.9 8 4.8 19.2 5.5 16.8 2.7 15.6 8.3 8 -0.6 1.9 0 60.1 -0.5

9808.5 10194.9 10390.5 10520.7 10451.5 10204.1 10303.7 337.5 342.3 348.1 353.8 357.8 362.5 366 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.1 1.3 1 172.9 176.4 181.4 186.3 190.4 189.2 185 -0.3 2.1 2.8 2.7 2.2 -0.6 -2.2 3.8 3.2 2.8 3.2 4.6 7.2 7.2 3382 3702 3096 2765 1507 899 1152 2131 2767 2536 2171 1038 740 1061 1251 934 560 594 469 159 91

10495 10807.8 11042.5 367.2 369.9 373.8 0.3 0.7 1.1 185.3 186.8 189 0.1 0.8 1.2 6.6 5.9 5.3 1781 2324 2582 1634 2033 2128 147 291 454

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

83

T a m pa – St . P ete r s bu r g – C l ea r w ate r

P r o fi l e s The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is comprised of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas counties. Located centrally on the west coast of Florida, this region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge Docks, Ybor City, Bush Gardens, the University of South Florida, and the University of Tampa. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Devil Rays also call this region home.

Quick Facts:

• MSA population estimate of 2,723,949 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hernando County population estimate of 169,070 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Hillsborough County population estimate of 1,174,727 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Pasco County population estimate of 462,715 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Pinellas County population estimate of 917,437 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• A civilian labor force of 1,341,382 in January 2008 for the entire region (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 4.8% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted.

This amounts to 64,031 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• Publix Super Markets – 23,248 employees • Hillsborough County School District – 21,426 employees

• MacDill Air Force Base – 19,000 employees • Baycare – 17,000 employees

• Verizon Communications – 14,000 employees 84

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

• University of South Florida – 12,477 employees

• Hillsborough County Government – 10,886 employees • Danka Business Systems – 9,500 employees • Tampa International Airport – 8,000 employees • Lincare Holdings – 6,100 employees

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal & Committee of One Hundred Research

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Tampa—St. Petersburg—Clearwater MSA is expected to show moderate to high growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to be 4.6 percent on average each year, and the per capita income level will average 34.2 annually.

Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.6 percent, one of the highest in the state. The average annual wage level will be 45.8. Population growth will average 0.9 percent, and Tampa is forecasted to have the second highest Gross Metro Product, averaging a level of 95,795.08 (Mill).

Employment growth is expected to be 1.6 percent annually, tied for second highest in the state. The unemployment rate is expected to average 9.8 percent.

The fastest growing sector in the Tampa area is Professional and Business Services, growing 4.5 percent each year. The Manufacturing sector follows with an average annual growth rate of 2.0 percent.

The Information and the Federal Government sectors are the only sectors that will experience declines, with annual growth rates of -0.3 percent and -0.9 percent respectively.

T a m pa – St . P ete r s bu r g – C l ea r w ate r

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Tampa Bay retail market languishing • The region’s deal activity in the retail investment market remains at or near historic lows according to Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services’ third-quarter report.

• The loss of 33,000 jobs in the Tampa Bay area in the first three quarters of the year has resulted in a 6% fall in retail sales, the report states.

• Retail vacancy rates are nearing the highest levels recorded in the past decade, at 9%.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, October 5, 2009 USF receives $1.46 million stimulus grant for research center • The National Institute on Drug Abuse granted the University of South Florida $1.46 million in stimulus money to support the development of a new research center, the USF Center on Co-Occurring Disorders, within the College of Behavioral and Community Sciences.

• Three junior investigators in biomedical research positions will be created.

• The award is the largest single grant USF has seen from the stimulus package. The research center will focus on disorders found in the justice systems, with a special focus on trauma and veterans’ issues.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, October 14, 2009 USAA expands in Tampa, adds 200 jobs • The United Services Automobile Association (USAA) unveiled plans to add banking and financial advice to its existing call center operations in Tampa.

• Some of the 200 new positions will be filled with current USAA employees.

• The company plans to hire a minimum of 80 professionals in the fields of banking, investment, and insurance from outside the company in the next six months.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, October 19, 2009 Hillsborough task force votes to shield Cone Ranch from development • A Hillsborough County task force voted to protect Cone Ranch, a 12,800-acre tract of land in northeast Hillsborough, from development, pleasing neighborhood and environmental leaders.

• The task force agreed to have the Water Resource Services Department, which has water rights to the land, deed the tract to the county’s Environmental Lands Acquisition and Preservation Program, instead of dividing the land for sale to private interests.

• The Water Resource Services Department originally purchased the land as a potential well field, a purpose that has since diminished.

Source: St. Petersburg Times, November 17, 2009 Transit tax plan moves forward in Hillsborough • The Hillsborough County Board of Commissioners has decided to put a proposed sales tax increase on the November 2010 ballot.

The tax revenue will fund mass transit in Hillsborough County.

• Commissioners will begin holding public hearings and debating the details of the proposed tax increase, which will be anywhere from 1 cent to 8 cents.

• Three-fourths of the funds collected from the tax increase would go toward the rail and bus system, while the remaining funds would go primarily to roadwork.

Source: St. Petersburg Times, December 3, 2009

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

85

T a m pa – St . P ete r s bu r g – C l ea r w ate r Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

Florida & Tampa Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Tampa Unemployment Rate

0.4

0.6

1300.0 1250.0 1200.0 1150.0 1100.0 1050.0

86

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Tampa Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Tampa Real Gross Metro Product 105000.0 100000.0 95000.0 90000.0 85000.0 80000.0 75000.0 70000.0 65000.0

Tampa Payroll Employment (Thousands)

0.8

(Millions 2000 $)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Tampa Real Personal Income 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income

T a m pa – St . P ete r s bu r g – C l ea r w ate r

Quarterly Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL*

December 2009 Forecast

2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

98.5 -2.9 50.6 47.8 89.2 6.6 35.4 32.1 43.3 0.1

98.6 -0.7 50.5 48.1 89.3 8.6 35.5 32.1 43.7 2.5

99.8 0.8 51 48.8 90.2 10.4 35.9 32.5 44.1 3.2

101.1 2.6 51.6 49.5 91 12.7 36.4 32.8 44.5 3.6

101.9 3.5 52 49.9 91.4 2.5 36.7 32.9 44.7 3.2

103 4.4 52.6 50.4 92 3.1 37 33.1 45 2.9

104.2 4.5 53.2 51 92.8 2.9 37.4 33.3 45.1 2.4

105.7 4.6 53.9 51.8 93.7 3 37.9 33.6 45.3 1.9

107.3 5.3 54.7 52.7 94.9 3.8 38.4 33.9 45.5 1.8

109 5.9 55.4 53.6 96.1 4.4 38.9 34.3 45.8 1.8

110.8 6.3 56.2 54.6 97.3 4.9 39.4 34.6 46 2

112.4 6.4 56.9 55.5 98.5 5.1 39.9 34.9 46.3 2.2

114 6.2 57.7 56.3 99.5 4.9 40.3 35.2 46.6 2.3

115.6 6 58.5 57 100.6 4.7 40.7 35.4 47 2.5

1151.1 -0.4 63.7 0.3 1087.5 -0.5 57.3 -6.8 209.1 -0.3 46 134.4 24.7 26.1 -3.7 88.8 -5.6 212 1.7 174.9 1.2 121.6 1.2 49.6 0.9 21.9 1.7 126.3 -1.8

1157.1 1.2 64.2 0.7 1093 1.2 57 -5.1 209.8 0.7 46 135.5 24.9 26.3 -2 89.4 -4.5 215.9 7.5 175.8 1.9 121.4 1.7 49.7 1.3 21.6 -0.6 126.1 -1.5

1166 1.8 64.4 1.6 1101.6 1.8 57.2 -2.2 210.5 1.3 46.7 135.5 25.2 26.9 2.9 90.4 -2.1 220.5 8.4 177.3 2.4 121.3 0.8 49.7 1.2 21.4 -9.4 126.3 -1

1176.8 2.5 65.2 2.9 1111.7 2.5 57.9 0.6 211.7 1.5 47.4 136.3 25.7 27.4 5.6 91.2 1.1 226 8.4 178.7 2.6 121 -0.3 49.7 0.8 21.3 -4.8 126.7 0

1188.8 3.3 66.2 4 1122.6 3.2 58.8 2.7 213.6 2.2 48.1 137.6 26.1 27.4 5.2 92 3.6 232 9.4 179.6 2.7 121 -0.5 49.8 0.6 21.3 -2.7 127.1 0.6

1198.7 3.6 67.1 4.6 1131.6 3.5 59.8 4.9 215.2 2.6 48.5 138.6 26.4 27.5 4.5 92.8 3.8 235.6 9.1 180.5 2.7 121.5 0.1 49.9 0.5 21.2 -1.9 127.6 1.2

1208.2 3.6 67.8 5.2 1140.5 3.5 61 6.6 216.7 3 48.9 139.6 26.7 27.5 2.3 93.5 3.5 238.3 8.1 181.5 2.3 122.2 0.8 50 0.6 21.2 -1.2 128.5 1.7

1217.7 3.5 68.5 5.1 1149.3 3.4 62.2 7.4 217.8 2.9 49.3 139.9 27.1 27.5 0.4 94.3 3.4 241.8 7 182.1 1.9 123 1.6 50.2 0.8 21.1 -1 129.3 2

1226.3 3.2 69.1 4.4 1157.2 3.1 63.4 7.8 219 2.5 49.7 140.4 27.3 27.6 0.7 94.9 3.1 244.2 5.3 182.8 1.8 123.8 2.3 50.3 1 21.1 -0.9 130.1 2.4

1234.5 3 69.8 4 1164.7 2.9 64.7 8.2 220.3 2.4 50.1 141 27.6 27.8 0.9 95.2 2.6 246.9 4.8 183.2 1.5 124.3 2.3 50.4 1 21 -0.9 130.9 2.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1156.3 -4.3 63.5 -8.8 1092.8 -4.1 61.5 -14 209.6 -5.7 46.6 135 25.5 27 -9.2 94.1 -3.1 208.4 -7.7 172.8 1.4 120.1 -0.5 49.1 2.2 21.5 -0.9 128.6 -2.3

1143.9 -4 63.7 -5.9 1080.3 -3.9 60 -9.8 208.4 -4.8 46.7 132.5 25.2 26.9 -8.5 93.6 -3.2 200.8 -6.9 172.5 0.3 119.4 -2.4 49.1 1.3 21.7 -0.3 128 -3

1145.4 -2.7 63.4 -3.4 1081.9 -2.6 58.5 -8.1 207.8 -4.1 46.4 132.7 24.8 26.1 -8.6 92.3 -4.5 203.3 -4.6 173.2 1.3 120.3 -0.6 49.1 -0.7 23.6 8.9 127.5 -1.2

1148.3 -1.5 63.3 -1.2 1085 -1.6 57.6 -9 208.6 -1.7 46.3 133.5 24.7 25.9 -6.7 90.2 -5.3 208.6 -1.3 174.2 1.3 121.4 0.9 49.4 0.1 22.4 2.8 126.7 -1.7

90038.1 90119.1 90688.6 91154.1 91476.7 92081.3 92982.9 94078.9 95258.6 96289.7 97292.2 98251.4 99135.6 99861.7 2780.7 2776.5 2775.2 2776.5 2780 2783.3 2786.9 2791.4 2796.9 2803 2811.6 2820.9 2830.5 2840.8 1.4 1 0.8 0.7 0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1302.7 1297 1295.5 1294.6 1295 1295.8 1296.1 1297.4 1300.1 1303.9 1308.4 1312.5 1317.9 1323.6 -2.4 -2.6 -2.3 -1.1 -0.6 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1 1.2 1.4 1.5 11.7 11.9 11.7 11.5 11.4 11.1 10.7 10.3 9.9 9.6 9.3 8.9 8.6 8.3 6002 6952 7848 8553 9715 11411 13316 15045 16414 17492 18585 19707 20410 20951 5385 6144 7009 7608 8656 10060 11718 13211 14395 15153 16005 16761 17156 17436 617 808 839 945 1060 1351 1598 1834 2018 2339 2580 2945 3254 3515

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

87

T a m pa – St . P ete r s bu r g – C l ea r w ate r

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

December 2009 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

76 4.1 42 34 73.6 2.7 30.5 29.6 36.2 4.1

78.9 3.8 42.9 36 74.9 1.8 31.2 29.6 36.8 1.7

84.9 7.6 45.9 39 78.5 4.9 32.9 30.4 37.8 2.8

91.3 7.5 49 42.3 81.9 4.3 34.5 31 39 3.2

98.4 7.8 52.2 46.1 85.9 4.9 36.6 32 40.9 4.9

101.3 3 54 47.4 86.2 0.3 37.3 31.7 42.4 3.6

102.1 0.8 53.5 48.6 84.1 -2.5 37.3 30.7 43.2 1.9

98.8 -3.2 50.8 48 83.4 -0.8 35.8 30.2 42.9 -0.8

100.3 1.5 51.3 49 90.5 8.4 36.1 32.6 44.2 3.2

105 4.7 53.6 51.5 93.4 3.2 37.7 33.5 45.2 2.3

111.6 6.2 56.5 55 97.8 4.8 39.6 34.7 46.2 2.1

118.1 5.8 59.7 58.3 102.3 4.5 41.3 35.8 47.5 2.8

1264.4 1.6 78.2 1.2 1186.2 1.6 93.9 6.3 236.1 1 54 151 31.1 32.6 -0.2 102.7 3.2 240.3 1.3 158.4 2.4 125.9 1.8 47.1 -4.6 21 1.2 128.1 0.7

1260.2 -0.3 75.6 -3.4 1184.6 -0.1 87.4 -7 234.6 -0.7 54.3 150.8 29.4 32.6 -0.1 101.8 -0.9 237 -1.4 165.6 4.5 126.2 0.2 47.8 1.5 21.1 0.5 130.6 2

1225.4 -2.8 71.5 -5.4 1153.9 -2.6 76.1 -12.8 227.4 -3 53.1 146.4 28 30.9 -5.3 97.7 -4 227.7 -3.9 170.1 2.7 122.6 -2.8 48.5 1.4 21.7 3 131 0.3

1172.6 -4.3 65.2 -8.8 1107.4 -4 63.7 -16.3 214.3 -5.8 47.8 140 26 28.2 -8.7 95.7 -2.1 212.1 -6.9 172 1.1 121 -1.3 49.1 1.2 21.7 -0.1 129.6 -1

1147.2 -2.2 63.5 -2.6 1083.7 -2.1 58.3 -8.5 208.5 -2.7 46.3 133.3 24.9 26.3 -6.9 91.2 -4.7 206.2 -2.8 173.7 1 120.7 -0.3 49.3 0.4 22.4 3.2 127.1 -1.9

1172.2 2.2 65 2.3 1107.2 2.2 57.7 -1 211.4 1.4 47 136.2 25.5 27 2.9 90.7 -0.5 223.6 8.5 177.8 2.4 121.2 0.4 49.8 1 21.4 -4.5 126.5 -0.5

1212.8 3.5 68.1 4.8 1144.6 3.4 61.6 6.7 217.2 2.7 49.1 139.6 26.9 27.5 2 93.9 3.4 240 7.3 181.7 2.2 122.6 1.2 50.1 0.7 21.1 -1.3 128.9 1.8

1246.7 2.8 70.6 3.6 1176.1 2.8 66.5 7.9 222.2 2.3 50.7 142.2 28 27.8 1 95.6 1.8 251.4 4.8 184.4 1.5 124.8 1.8 50.5 0.7 21 -0.8 132 2.4

80045.9 83088.9 86839.9 91654.5 95141.4 94923.5 92958.9 89662.9 90859.6 93600.4 97742.2 2488 2530 2584.8 2642.6 2689.2 2717 2736.2 2760 2777.1 2789.6 2816.5 1.7 1.7 2.2 2.2 1.8 1 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.5 1 1223 1226.3 1254.9 1258 1281.9 1303.6 1324.1 1317.6 1295.5 1297.3 1310.7 1 0.3 2.3 0.2 1.9 1.7 1.6 -0.5 -1.7 0.1 1 5.6 5.3 4.5 3.9 3.4 4.2 6.5 11 11.6 10.5 9.1 23639 27283 27279 32762 22881 11564 8932 6015 8267 14046 19048 18032 20013 22068 27605 19469 8527 5347 4350 7354 12346 16269 5608 7270 5211 5158 3412 3037 3585 1666 913 1700 2780

100978 2857.1 1.4 1332.6 1.7 8.1 21807 17978 3828

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

88

1150.2 -0.8 80 -5 1070.2 -0.5 69.6 2.8 228 -1.8 53.3 141.9 32.8 35.8 -7.9 92.5 0.2 190.9 -3.7 143 2.1 115.7 1.1 48 5.6 19 0.7 127.7 0.1

1153.7 0.3 76 -5 1077.7 0.7 72 3.5 221.5 -2.8 50.4 139.7 31.4 34.6 -3.5 93.9 1.5 197.9 3.6 147.6 3.2 116.1 0.4 47.9 -0.2 19.5 2.8 126.6 -0.8

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2009

1203.1 4.3 76.6 0.8 1126.5 4.5 79.1 9.9 226.5 2.2 50.9 143.3 32.3 32.9 -4.8 95.5 1.7 224.2 13.3 152.3 3.2 119.7 3.1 49.2 2.7 19.9 2.2 127.2 0.4

1244.7 3.5 77.3 0.9 1167.4 3.6 88.3 11.6 233.9 3.2 52.8 149 32.1 32.7 -0.6 99.4 4.1 237.2 5.8 154.7 1.6 123.7 3.3 49.4 0.5 20.8 4.3 127.2 0

I n d u s t r y L o cati o n Q u o tie n t

E x p l a n ati o n a n d I n te r p r etati o n This technique compares the local economy to a reference economy; in this case, the local economy is the chosen MSA, and the reference economy is the state of Florida. An Industry Location Quotient (LQ ) is calculated to determine if the local economy has a greater share of each industry’s employment than the reference economy. The LQ helps to identify specializations that exist in the local economy.

There are only three possible outcomes: 1. An LQ greater than one 2. An LQ equal to one and 3. An LQ less than one. An LQ that is greater than one means that the share of local employment in that particular industry is greater than the reference economy employment share in that same industry. This implies that some of the goods or services produced by that industry are exported for consumption elsewhere. An LQ of one means that local demand is met by the local industry. No goods/services are imported or exported from the local area in that industry. The share of local employment in that industry is equal to the share for that industry in the reference economy. An LQ less than one implies that the industry is not meeting local demand for that good or service, and in order to meet demand, that area must import that good or service. This also means that the share of local employment in that industry is less than the share of employment in that industry for the reference economy.

C a l cu l ati o n An industry location quotient is a calculated ratio of two ratios.

LQ = ((Local employment in industry A in year T / Total local employment in year T) /

(Reference economy employment in industry A in year T) / (Total reference

employment in year T)) For example: Orlando MSA employment for Information is 27,400

Total Orlando MSA nonagricultural employment is 1,104,100 Florida employment for Information is 169,800

Total Florida nonagricultural employment is 8,247,000 LQ = ((27,400 / 1,104,100) / (169,800 / 8,247,000)) = 1.2039 Source: Florida Regional Economic Database, Current Employment Statistics, December 2006

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

89

In Appreciation

The UCF College of Business Administration would like to thank Alan C. Charron, ‘84, for his generous gift to the Institute for Economic Competitiveness. His support enables the Institute to publish this forecast and will help fund future activities and research. Charron graduated in 1984 with a degree in finance.

He is president of Real Property Specialists, Inc., located in Orlando, Florida.

Founded in 1992, Real Property Specialists, Inc., is a fullservice brokerage company that has built a reputation of providing highly personalized service while being responsive and flexible to its clients' individual needs. They offer a range of commercial real estate services in the Central Florida area including brokerage, appraisal, development, property management and tenant representation.

Real Property Specialists, Inc., has set a new standard of excellence in client service by providing these key advantages over the competition:

Responsiveness. You work directly with a decision

maker who has the flexibility to immediately attend to your needs.

Consistency. We are a unified firm employing team-

members who are committed to the success of our clients.

We pride ourselves on our ability to maintain a dedicated, professional staff that is able to build long-term, comfortable and prosperous relationships with our clients.

Accountability. At Real Property Specialists, our client is the real "Boss." We are accountable to no one other than the client. No company policy interferes with our ability to serve the individual needs of each client.

Experience. The staff at Real Property Specialists is

highly qualified, with most associates having more than a decade of experience in the industry. Our personal portfolio of shopping centers gives us first-hand knowledge of what is important when leasing, managing or selling a property.

Appraisers t Brokers t Consultants 6700 Conroy-Windermere Road, Suite 230 | Orlando, FL 32835 407.291.9000 | www.realpropertyspecialists.com

Director, Institute for Economic Competitiveness.

Ph.D., Pennsylvania State University 1996; M.A., Pennsylvania State University 1994; B.S., Allegheny College 1989.

Sea n M . S n ait h , P h . D .

We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness:

Sean Snaith, Ph.D., is the Director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness within the College of Business Administration at the University of Central Florida and is a widely recognized economist in the field of business and economic forecasting.

As an award-winning forecaster, researcher, and professor, Snaith is always interested in the application of academic expertise to the solution of real world problems.

Snaith has served as a consultant for a client list ranging from local and regional municipalities to multi-national corporations, including Compaq, Dell and IBM. He has held teaching positions at Pennsylvania State University, American University in Cairo, University of North Dakota and University of the Pacific.

Snaith frequently appears in national and regional media and is sought after as a speaker. He has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, the New York Times, and the Chicago Tribune and has appeared on CNBC and Fox Business Channel. Known for his engaging presentations, one business editor wrote, “Snaith (has) an uncanny knack of making economics not only understandable but interesting.”

Snaith is a member of several economic organizations and national economic forecasting panels including USA Today’s Survey of Top Economists, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, Bloomberg, Reuters and the Livingston Survey.

In 2007 he was named California’s most accurate forecaster by the Western Blue Chip Consensus Forecast, besting UCLA, Wells Fargo and other esteemed forecasting groups. Snaith holds a B.S. in Economics from Allegheny College and an M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from Pennsylvania State University.

Snaith was recently named by Bloomberg News as one of the nation’s most accurate forecasters and was one of just two academic economists making the list which was released in the December 2008 issue of Bloomberg Markets.

For more information Sean Snaith, Director Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida P.O. Box 161400 Orlando, FL 32816 PH: 407.823.1451 FAX: 407.823.1454 E-MAIL: ssnaith@bus.ucf.edu www.iec.ucf.edu

U n i v e r s it y o f C e n t r al F l o r ida College of Business Administration Institute for Economic Competitiveness P. O . B o x 1 6 1 4 0 0 , O r l a n d o , F l o r i d a 3 2 8 1 6 PH 407.823.1453

FAX 407.823.1454

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