Florida & Metro Forecast December 2011 by UCF College of Business

Florida & Metro Forecast 2011-2014

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

Published December 2011

Meet Interim Dean fOARD f. jONES It is just about time for the black-eyed peas to make an appearance. No, I’m not talking about the music group, I mean the food! About University of Central Florida (UCF) T he Universit y of Centra l F lorida is a publ ic, mu lt i-ca mpus, met ropol ita n r e s e a r c h u n i v e r s i t y, d e d i c a t e d t o ser v ing its surrounding communities with their diverse and expanding populations, technological corridors, and inter nationa l pa r tners. T he mission of t he universit y is to of fer highqualit y underg raduate and g raduate education, student development, and continuing education; to conduct research and creative activ ities; and to prov ide ser v ices that enhance the intellectua l, cultura l, env ironmenta l, and economic development of the metropolitan region, address national and internationa l issues in key areas, establish UCF as a major presence, and c o n t r i b u t e t o t h e g l o b a l c o m m u n i t y.

About the College of Business Administration T he College of Business Administrat i o n a d v a n c e s t h e u n i v e r s i t y ’s m i s s i o n and goa ls in prov iding intellectua l leadership through resea rch, teaching, and ser v ice. T he college is striving to enhance g raduate prog rams, while maintaining the strong undergraduate base. The college delivers resea rch and qua lit y business education programs at the undergraduate, masters, doctora l, and executive levels to citizens of the state of F lorida and to select clientele nationa lly and i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y.

On New Year’s Day, proud southerners across our nation (including myself) carry on the tradition of eating black-eyed peas. Legend has it that eating them on January 1, will bring good luck and prosperity throughout the coming year. Well, I sure could use some good fortune and more money, so I will definitely eat some. In fact, judging by this past year, perhaps all Floridians should join in this custom! 2011 has been quite a year for our state. The unemployment rates continued to be troublesome and the housing market has still not come close to recovering. We still have a long way to go, but we are starting to make progress. I’m not sure if eating black-eyed peas will really help our luck at all, but it can’t hurt. And they taste good, so why not?! I wish you all a Happy New Year and I look forward to addressing you again in 2012! Sincerely,

Foard F. Jones Interim Dean

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

F lo r i da F o r eca s t 2011 - 2014 December 2011 Report

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright ÂŠ 2011 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved.

Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Elaine Vogt, Administrative Assistant Alexandra Betrone-Harpst, Researcher Jessica Fears, Researcher Sangitha Palaniappa, Researcher Nicholas Simons, Researcher This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitivenessâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.

TABLE OF CONTENTS Florida Highlights and Summary........................ 5-12 Florida Forecast Tables...................................... 13-18

Ta b l e o f co n t e n t s

Florida Forecast Charts...................................... 19-26 Florida News Summaries....................................... 27 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach.......... 29-33 Gainesville......................................................... 34-38 Jacksonville....................................................... 39-43 Lakeland............................................................ 44-48 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach.......... 49-53 Naples-Marco Island......................................... 54-58 Ocala................................................................. 59-63 Orlando-Kissimmee.......................................... 64-68 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville......................... 69-73 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent.............................. 74-78 Tallahassee........................................................ 79-83 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater.................... 84-88 Industry Location Quotient..................................... 89

F l o r id a H i g h l i g h t s

H i g h l i g h t s o f t h e D e c e mb e r 2 0 1 1 - 2 0 1 4 F l o r id a Fo r e c a s t • Yes, Virginia, there is an economic recovery in Florida. • Payroll job growth year-over-year is expected to average 0.8% in 2011, 1.8% in 2012, 1.9% in 2013, and 2.3% in 2014. It will be the 3rd quarter of 2016 before payrolls recover to their pre-recession levels. • The size of the labor force is a huge wild card in predicting the future path for the unemployment rate. When and to what extent discouraged workers begin to reenter the labor force will be a key to predicting the unemployment rate. • Unemployment rates will continue a long, slow decline through 2014. The emphasis is, unfortunately, still on slow - it will be 2014 Q4 before we see unemployment fall below 9%. Underemployment (U-6) currently stands at 18.2%. • The sectors expected to have the strongest average growth during 2011-2014 are Professional and Business Services (3.9%); Trade, Transportation & Utilities (2.8%); Leisure & Hospitality (2.6 %) and Education & Health Services (2.1%). • Florida’s housing construction sector hit the bottom of the Marianas Trench in 2009 and has been wallowing in that trough for nearly two years. Housing starts will climb to a slightly higher plateau in 2012 and begin to progress in 2013. Total starts at an annual rate will break 100,000 in the 1st quarter of 2014 for the first time since the 2nd quarter of 2007. • Real Gross State Product (RGSP) will expand just 0.7% in 2011, and then accelerate to 1.7% in 2012, 2.4% in 2013, and 3.9% in 2014. • Real personal income growth turned positive in 2010. From 2011-2014, real personal income growth will average 4.4%, and will peak at 5.5% in 2014. • Florida’s population growth will continue to pick up in 2011. By 2014, the growth rate should hit 1.7% as the economy improves and net migration swells as Baby Boomers’ retirements come to fruition. • 2011 retail sales should finish much stronger for the year. Retail sales will grow at an average pace of 4.9% during 2012-2014 after growing in 2011 at the fastest rate since 2005.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Florida & Metro Forecast Published in Florida

DEAR Professor Snaith: I am 8 years old. Some of my little friends from Occupy Florida say there is no economic recovery in Florida. Papa says, ‘If you see it in The Florida & Metro Forecast it’s so.’ Please tell me the truth; is there an economic recovery in Florida? VIRGINIA O’HANLON 115 WEST NINETY-FIFTH STREET APALACHICOLA, FLORIDA

Yes, Virginia, There is an Economic Recovery in Florida Virginia, your little friends from the drum circle are wrong. They have been affected by the skepticism of a skeptical age, and they do not believe except [what] they see on MSNBC. They think that nothing can be which is not comprehensible by their little minds, like our nation’s financial system for example. All minds, Virginia, whether they be economists’ or children’s (but especially economists’) are little. In this great economy of ours, man is a mere insect, an ant, in his intellect, as compared with the boundless world about him, as measured by the intelligence capable of grasping the whole of truth and knowledge. Yes, Virginia, there is an economic recovery in Florida. It exists as certainly as weapons of mass destruction in Iraq; as certainly as love,

generosity, devotion and fiscal austerity in Washington DC exist; and you know that they abound and give to your life its highest beauty and joy. Every recession is followed by a recovery; this is the way of the business cycle. Every business cycle is unique like a snowflake and like you Virginia, so no two recoveries will be exactly alike. Alas! How dreary would be the Sunshine State if there were no economic recovery in Florida. It would be as dreary as if there were no Virginias or Alexandras or Jessicas or Nicks or Sangithas or Elaines. There would be no childlike faith then, no poetry, no chance I will regain any of my home equity, no romance to make tolerable this existence. We should have no enjoyment, except in sense and sight. The eternal light with which economics fills the world would be extinguished. Not believe in Florida’s economic recovery?! You might as well not

December 2011

believe in fairies! You might get your papa to hire men to try and count the number of jobs saved by the stimulus package, but even if they could not accurately count them (Perhaps the fairies’ jobs were saved?), what would that prove? Nobody knows what a job saved looks like, but that is no sign that there is no economic recovery. The most real things in the world are those that neither children nor men nor economists can see. Did you ever see fairies or an economist dancing on the lawn? Of course not, but that’s no proof that they are not there nor is it justification for my not being invited back to my neighbor’s Christmas party this year. Nobody can conceive or imagine all the unseen or unseeable wonders in the world and I think I am a pretty good dancer to boot. You may tear apart the baby’s rattle and see what makes the noise inside, but there is a veil covering the unseen world which not the strongest man, nor even the united strength of all the strongest men that ever lived, could tear apart. Only faith, fancy, poetry, love, romance, and economics can push aside that curtain and view and picture the supernal beauty and glory beyond. Is it all real? Ah, Virginia, in all this world there is nothing else as real and abiding as the business cycle. No economic recovery! Thank God! The economic recovery lives, albeit in a weakened state. A thousand business cycles from now, Virginia, nay, ten times ten thousand business cycles from now, recoveries will continue to make glad the heart of childhood.

F l o r id a S umm a r y

Flor ida’s H ousin g M a r k e t Figures 1 and 2 display monthly data for the market for single-family existing homes as released by the Florida Realtors through October 2011. The darker and smoother line in each graph is the 12-month moving average of each of the unadjusted monthly series which are shown with a lighter and more seasonally variable line.

The 12-month moving average of sales (Figure 1) resumed an upward trajectory after oscillating a bit in the wake of the expiration of the FirstTime Homebuyer’s Tax Credit program. Sales for 2011 through October are on average higher than the average sales through October for 2010. The willingness of banks to allow short sales will speed up transactions of distressed properties and help keep this momentum in place.

Median prices (Figure 2) have not definitively reached a bottom. They will continue their multiyear decline. The rate at which the 12-month moving average of median prices is declining has slowed, but unfortunately has not yet stopped. More progress will need to be made in Florida’s labor market before a stable bottom for housing prices can be formed.

Outloo k for Flo rida 201 1 - 201 4 Florida’s Economic Outlook is Slowly Improving Robust Economic Growth? Still Two Years Away

2011 was anticipated to be a stronger follow up to the weak economic growth Florida experienced in 2010, the first year of our state’s economic recovery. The best laid plans of mice and men and economic recoveries often go astray. 2011, instead of a year of gaining momentum, has turned out to be one in which the economy came perilously close to stall speed.

The U.S. economy faltered in the first half of the year for a number of reasons, many centering on the staggering federal budget deficit and the mounting national debt. Real GDP growth was anemic and Florida’s economy lost momentum as well. Growth of Florida’s real GDP decelerated as well, falling to a level that is roughly half of the 2010 growth rate. Bursts of activity in the leisure and hospitality sector were among the few bright spots that the economy displayed this year, but rather than a sun

Figure 1. Existing Housing Sales

Figure 2. Median Housing Prices

Florida Florida

Florida

Florida Single Family, Existing Homes

Single Family, Existing Homes

30000 25000

Single Family, Existing Homes

$300,000.00

Realtor Sales $250,000.00

Moving Average

Median Sales Price Moving Average

20000

$200,000.00

15000

$150,000.00

10000

$100,000.00

5000

$50,000.00 $-

Year

Year Data Source: Florida Realtors

Data Source: Florida Realtors Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r id a S umm a r y

that shone consistently these were more like the twinkling of a distant star. This is, of course, better than a starless, black sky hanging over the economy, but we continue to wait for sunrise to arrive and warm Florida’s chilly economy.

Unfortunately, 2012 will not be the dawn of that day as the year is shaping up to be another year of subpar growth. Growth, to be sure, will continue and 2012 will be an improvement over a largely disappointing 2011 but economic growth for the year will sub 2.0% and payrolls will expand by just 1.8%.

This economic growth will accelerate into 2013 and 2014 eventually helping the labor market to progress along its own longer and more difficult path to recovery, and even the beleaguered construction sector will begin to see job growth by 2013. The only sector expected to consistently lose jobs through 2014 is the federal government. Fiscal austerity has, after a long absence, returned to the center ring of our political circus. The near term economic picture for Florida is for a modest acceleration of the pace of recovery, including the labor market over the next two quarters. A healthy labor market is the cornerstone for Florida’s overall economic recovery. Job creation, a falling unemployment rate, and a growing labor force are the trifecta of a healthy labor market. While we have had months where these indicators have registered the correct reading, we have not seen this on a consistent basis. When we do, we can be assured that the labor market recovery is underway and sustainable. The labor market’s recovery will help boost sales tax revenues via higher retail sales and more discretionary spending in general helping to ease budget crunches in Tallahassee. As we have discussed in previous Florida forecasts, the housing market’s recovery as well is intertwined with that of the labor market.

There continues to be a reason to be optimistic about Florida’s economic recovery. Jobs are being created and population growth is expected to slowly 8

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2011

accelerate over the next three years. The damage to our economy from the recession, housing, and financial crises was severe and the process of rebuilding will take time.

Gross State P roduct Real Gross State Product (GSP) in Florida, the state-level analogue to Real GDP, shifted from contraction to expansion in 2010. Growth was modest last year and became even more so in 2011 with full year growth expected to come in at just 0.7%. To put that in perspective, at the height of the housing boom in 2005 Real GSP grew at 6.1%. Not all recoveries are created equal.

In 2013, confidence and a burgeoning labor market recovery will both be in place along with more robust growth of 2.4% and finally back to some Florida-like growth in 2014 when Real GSP is expected to grow 3.9%

The burden of lost wealth Florida’s consumers have to overcome in most cases is substantially higher than consumers in states around the nation and housing prices continue to drift downward. The destruction of wealth that these price declines encapsulate has left a gaping wound on the balance sheet of Florida’s households. However, as 2012 gives way to 2013 and beyond, the economy will begin to grow more rapidly and labor markets will continue to heal; housing prices should stabilize and stop the further erosion of wealth.

Nominal Gross State Product is expected to reach nearly $868.3 billion in 2014, as Florida progresses toward becoming a trillion-dollar economy. The state will likely cross that threshold five years from now in 2017. Florida’s economy is one of the largest in the world and is expected to grow even larger in the years ahead. Demographics and international drivers for the state will help power its economy forward.

F l o r id a S umm a r y

P ersona l I n com e , R e ta i l Sale s , a n d Au to Sa l e s Personal income growth quarter-over-quarter decelerated in the second half of 2011 in Florida. It is expected to increase by just $1.8 billion in the 3rd quarter and $6.3 billion in the 4th quarter after having increased $22.1 billion in the first half of the year. Year-over-year growth will be higher through 2011, lose a bit of momentum in 2012 and 2013 before personal income growth accelerates into 2014 when it is expected to grow 5.5%.

Personal income growth will lag that of the nation as a whole through 2011. In 2012 the positions are reversed, and Florida outpaces the nation with personal income growth that is an average of 0.3% higher than the nation through 2014. 2012 will be the first time since 2006 that personal income growth in Florida has been higher than the national rate. Personal income will reach nearly $856 billion in 2014 - a year that will boast growth of $44.3 billion. Real disposable income growth, which also has been depressed by the struggling economy, increased to just 1.5% in 2010, but this was the first acceleration of growth since 2006. This growth of real disposable income should persist through the next two years. In 2011, growth should come in at 1.0% and rise to 2.0% in 2012. Average growth during 2012-2014 will be 2.2%.

The stock market has made a strong recovery from the lows of the financial crisis. The European crisis hit financial markets, and in the 3rd quarter household wealth declined as financial asset values shrunk. A resumption of price appreciation in the stock market will help to recoup wealth that has still not been recovered from the stock market’s pre-crisis highs. The housing market in Florida has had no such luck, and housing prices still seem to be struggling to find a bottom. The lost home equity (roughly $1 trillion) could take decades to recover. In Florida, consumers have little choice when it comes to trying to rebuild their wealth other than to save

more of their income and to try to restore what was lost. This negative wealth effect will continue to weigh upon consumer spending for years.

Florida’s persistent double-digit unemployment will also continue to weigh on consumer spending in Florida. As the labor market shifts into a mode where private sector job creation begins, it will further help lift consumer confidence and spending. Nothing puts one in a mood to spend as much as changing status from unemployed to employed, new hiring and a feeling of job security for those who have remained employed. However, these feelings will help to unlock some of the pent-up consumer spending that resulted from prior job worries.

High oil and gasoline prices have receded and Florida’s consumers and economy will benefit in the 2nd half of 2011. This decline in gasoline prices has a two-pronged effect on the Florida forecast as the additional boost of receding oil prices on tourism creates a double whammy for the Florida economy. Retail sales in Florida will grow at 7.4% in 2011, in part due to higher gasoline expenditures as a result of rising prices earlier in the year. Once the labor market has fully embarked on its long path to recovery, retail spending will begin to recover in other areas as well. We expect retail sales to expand an average of 5.49% in 2011-2014. The average growth rate of retail sales will be nearly 4.85% during the 2012-2014 time frame. Although retail sales growth will not reach the levels experienced during the height of the housing and economic boom, it should help to alleviate the budget woes in Tallahassee in 2012 and 2013.

As the economy continues to recover, consumers’ pent-up demand for automobiles and light trucks will continue to be released. Replacement need and a sense of stability in the economy are driving this demand. 2010 was the start of a multi-year rise in the number of new passenger car and truck registrations in Florida. Growth will be robust during 2011-2014, averaging nearly 11.5%. In 2014, registrations will reach 1.31 million, representing a 188% increase

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r id a S umm a r y

from the 2009 nadir but still not higher than the level of registrations during the height of the housing boom (1.449 million). That number will be surpassed in 2016.

Emp loy m e n t Overall payroll employment in the state fell 1.0% for 2010. This was the third consecutive year that payrolls in Florida contracted. From peak month to trough month, Florida shed 920,000 payroll jobs.

Payroll job growth has finally taken root in 2011. Job growth has been tepid in the first half of the year but has gained some momentum in the second half. Full year job growth in 2011 is expected to be 0.8%. In 2012 job growth versus a year ago is expected to come in at 1.8%. This year will also mark the first time since 2006 that job growth in Florida exceeds the national rate of job growth. Payroll job growth will reach 2.3% in 2014 as it steadily accelerates to that point. The long-suffering Construction sector still has another five quarters of job losses before it too joins in the labor market’s recovery. This sector has been shedding jobs profusely after peaking during the housing boom; it will be six straight years of job losses before the turn around in the construction sector gets underway.

Job growth will not return to the Construction sector until the 2nd quarter of 2013; this will be the last private sector of the economy to join in the recovery. Job growth rates are expected to surge from -4.0% in 2012 to 2.3% in 2013 and 13.4% in 2014. The 2014 growth rate appears large but is being calculated from a dramatically lower base of employment in the sector. By the end of 2014, employment in this sector should be back at levels previously reached in 1993.

The Professional and Business Services sector will be the state’s fastest growing sector through 2014. Job growth in this sector is expected to lead the state averaging 3.9% during 2011-2014. Job gains have

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2011

been relatively modest to date but are expected to accelerate. By the first quarter of 2012 job growth in the sector will be 4.3%. For the full year, 2011 will turn in job growth at 1.1% and will accelerate and reach 3.7% in 2012, 4.1% in 2013, and 6.8% in 2014. This sector will recover quickly and will get back to pre-recession peak levels of employment before the end of the 3rd quarter of 2014.

The Information sector shed jobs through the first half of 2011; employment continues to contract in the second half of the year. Recently the Tampa Tribune has announced layoffs of 165 employees. Structural changes in this industry, as technology has evolved and news comes in the form of tweets and blog posts (this is a very liberal definition of what is news) rather than newsprint, haunt this sector, but other sources of growth will eventually help compensate. Job growth should return to the Information sector year-over-year in 2012 and this will be just the second year of job growth in this sector in twelve prior years, including six straight years of net job losses leading up to 2011. Job growth will creep to 0.8% in 2012 as the recovery kicks into gear, and will average 2.0% in 2013-2014. The one sector that has generated jobs throughout the recession and that is expected to continue to expand through the end of 2014 is the Health and Education sector. During 2011-2014, employment in this sector is expected to expand at an average rate of 2.1%. Budget woes will likely constrain employment levels in the education side of the sector and schools face significant revenue shortfalls due to the housing sector’s ongoing malaise. Recent court rulings regarding national healthcare reform as well as a number of pending lawsuits against various aspects of this legislation, including a Supreme Court hearing on the constitutionality of the individual mandate, obscure the future of the healthcare sector. It is still difficult to tell precisely how politics and the legal system will ultimately impact healthcare in Florida. Federal and state budget battles will put Medicare and Medicaid

F l o r id a S umm a r y

expenditures in the spotlight. The focus will necessarily be upon gaining efficiency and controlling the cost of delivering these services. However, with momentum toward expanding coverage and our aging population, it appears that demand for health services will remain strong in the foreseeable future. This demand will continue to drive job growth in this sector. Manufacturing employment expanded weakly in Florida through the first half of 2011 and in the second half of the year growth is expected to wobble. Globalization and productivity gains in manufacturing have reduced employment in this sector for the better part of a decade. The sector is emerging from this period of globalization as competitive as it has been in many years. This improved competitiveness, a weakened dollar especially against emerging market currencies and strong expansions in these same emerging economies will help drive job growth as exports continue to rise. We are expecting to see job growth of 1.8% in this sector for the full year in 2012, followed by a stronger year of job growth in 2013, when manufacturing employment will expand at a rate of 2.0%. Manufacturing is expected to continue to gain jobs in 2014 and job growth is expected to be 2.3%.

The beleaguered public sector has been set upon by budget crunches that run from Tallahassee to Minneola as well as many in politics and the public at large who think the only good government worker is a laid off government worker. Job losses will persist in the sector through 2012 when growth will turn slightly positive and average 0.4% during 2013-2014.

the business cycle overall, but the weak nature of the recovery and the marked uncertainty that seems to permeate the economy have resulted in this especially jobless recovery. Payroll job growth will trigger the reentry of discouraged workers who had abandoned the job search, and in some cases re-discouraged workers that have left and re-entered the labor force on more than one occasion during this business cycle. This source of growth in the labor force, which has not yet appeared as Floridaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s labor force continues to shrink, will make the reduction in the unemployment rate a more difficult and prolonged process. It will also make it an uncertain one. At some point, the discouraged workers will become encouraged enough to re-enter the job hunt and this will put upward pressure on the unemployment rate.

The problem of underemployment and marginally attached workersâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; those who are neither working nor looking for work, but indicate that they want and are available for a job, and have looked for work sometime in the past twelve monthsâ&#x20AC;&#x201D; and those who have given up searching for a job entirely, is substantial. Also, as just noted, it is a factor behind the persistently high unemployment rate. When adding these workers to the top-level unemployment figure, this broader measure of unemployment, known as U-6, paints an even grimmer picture of labor markets, and is currently 18.2% through the 3rd quarter of 2011 in Florida, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

U ne mploy m e n t Unemployment rates in Florida remain at high levels, despite the fact that the recovery came to the state in 2010. Real Gross State Product has been growing since the 1st quarter of 2010, admittedly not at a breakneck pace, but despite the recovery the unemployment rate has only been in decline for the past six months. The labor market cycle tends to lag Institute for Economic Competitiveness

on & Health ployment

ds)

December 2011

Ta b l e s

08 09 10 11 12 13 14

F l o r id a F O RE C A S T

F l o r id a S umm a r y T a b l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2005

2006

2007

2008

2011

2012

2013

2014

633.2

690.3

721.1

Personal Income and GSP 740.3 697.4 720.2 753.9

782.1

812.1

856.4

Florida (%Ch)

8.7

9.0

4.5

2.7

-5.8

3.3

4.7

3.7

3.8

5.5

U.S.(%Ch)

5.5

7.5

5.7

4.6

-4.2

3.7

4.8

3.4

3.6

5.0

Personal Income (Bil. 2000$)

633.1

671.9

683.5

679.6

638.9

648.2

662.4

678.0

692.9

Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$)

5.5 4.3 564.1

6.1 7.6 598.6

1.7 -4.6 609.0

-0.6 -0.6 616.8

-6.0 -13.7 589.9

1.5 9.2 598.6

2.2 6.1 604.4

2.4 4.2 616.3

2.2 4.7 624.3

716.5 3.4 7.0 644.6 3.3

Personal Income (Bil. $)

2009

2010

Florida (%Ch)

3.9

6.1

1.7

1.3

-4.4

1.5

1.0

2.0

1.3

U.S.(%Ch)

1.4

4.0

2.4

-2.3

1.8

1.0

1.6

1.1

2.8

680.3 9.5 680.3

730.2 7.4 706.6

759.6 4.0 714.0

747.8 -1.5 689.9

732.8 -2.0 664.1

747.7 2.0 673.2

764.6 2.3 678.1

790.9 3.4 690.0

822.0 3.9 706.7

868.3 5.6 734.2

(%Ch)

6.1

3.9

1.1

-3.4

-3.7

1.4

0.7

1.7

2.4

3.9

Employment Labor Force

3.8 2.9

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) 3.3 1.4 -1.0 -4.7 -0.6 1.1 1.3 1.2 2.8 2.1 1.4 -0.6 0.9 0.2 0.8 0.9

1.9 1.0

FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

3.8 5.1

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2000$)

3.3 4.6

4.0 4.6

6.2 5.8

10.2 9.3

11.5 9.6

10.8 9.0

10.4 8.8

10.1 8.7

9.3 8.1

1.4 1.9 -0.1 2.3

1.7 2.3 -2.1 13.4

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing

1.7 4.0 -0.8 11.3

1.8 2.6 -6.5 7.2

1.1 0.2 1.6 -8.8

-0.6 -3.5 -7.8 -17.4

-4.4 -6.2 -11.5 -23.3

-0.7 -1.0 -2.2 -11.5

1.0 0.8 3.5 -4.4

1.2 1.8 1.8 -4.0

1.2

0.3

-4.2

-7.0

-12.7

-5.2

-0.2

1.8

2.0

2.3

-1.7 2.7 3.8 4.1 4.1

-2.0 1.3 1.4 2.9 2.0

-1.5 -5.4 0.1 1.5 0.4

-6.2 -7.4 -2.1 -3.1 -2.9

-10.1 -14.0 -6.7 -8.0 -6.6

-4.0 -5.8 -2.2 -3.3 0.2

-0.9 0.2 1.6 -1.8 1.6

0.0 2.7 2.6 0.3 3.5

-0.6 3.3 3.6 3.0 1.8

-0.8 3.7 3.3 2.4 0.7

5.0 7.2 2.5 2.7 0.2

3.2 4.3 2.7 1.5 -0.9

-1.0 0.7 3.1 2.0 -0.3

-4.6 -6.1 2.1 -1.4 -3.4

-7.4 -8.0 1.2 -4.6 -8.7

-2.7 0.5 1.8 0.2 -4.9

-0.3 1.1 2.1 4.8 -3.3

1.4 3.7 2.6 4.1 0.8

1.3 4.1 2.0 1.4 3.2

0.2 6.8 1.8 -0.2 0.9

Federal Gov't.

1.5

-0.7

0.2

1.4

2.3

6.9

-6.4

-1.9

-2.5

-2.4

State & Local Gov't.

1.4

2.0

2.4

0.2

-1.4

-1.0

-0.4

-1.7

0.1

0.7

Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information

Population (thous)

Population and Migration 17,875.7 18,184.1 18,385.1 18,540.8 18,682.0 18,876.7 19,080.2 19,296.5 19,581.3 19,922.6

(%Ch) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch)

2.3 315.0 -15.0

1.7 193.2 -40.5

1.1 117.7 -34.6

0.8 84.2 -29.1

0.8 104.7 39.3

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

271.4 210.7 60.7

203.3 156.2 47.1

101.4 75.2 26.2

61.6 40.9 20.7

33.6 26.8 6.8

4.6

4.1

3.4

4.2

1.0 146.0 58.9

1.1 149.6 2.5

1.1 178.2 19.2

1.5 257.5 45.5

1.7 300.1 16.6

44.6 32.8 11.8

53.7 36.9 16.8

79.7 56.7 23.0

120.3 87.8 32.4

3.4

1.8

2.3

Housing 38.1 31.7 6.4

Consumer Prices (%Ch)

-0.2

1.3

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r id a S umm a r y T a b l e s Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch)

761.8 4.1

771.8 3.7

778.3 3.3

785.4 4.0

792.9 4.1

799.3 3.6

807.7 3.8

816.1 3.9

825.1 4.1

838.5 4.9

849.4 5.2

862.4 5.7

875.4 6.1

4.0

3.0

3.8

3.9

3.4

3.6

3.7

3.8

4.5

4.8

5.1

5.4

Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch)

665.2 1.5

671.9 1.8

676.3 2.0

679.8 2.9

684.1

686.7

690.9

694.9

699.3

707.2

712.6

719.7

726.7

2.8

2.2

3.0

3.1

3.6

3.9

U.S.(%Ch) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$)

3.5 606.2

4.0 612.1

4.2 615.6

4.2 617.5

4.3 619.9

4.0 619.8

4.4 622.1

4.9 625.2

5.6 630.0

6.3 635.7

7.1 641.0

7.4 647.7

7.3 654.1

Florida(%Ch)

0.2

1.5

1.7

2.4

2.3

1.3

1.1

1.2

1.6

2.6

3.0

3.6

3.8

U.S.(%Ch)

0.2

0.7

1.5

2.3

2.1

1.1

0.9

1.0

1.4

2.2

2.7

775.9 3.6 682.8 1.2

783.3 4.1 686.0 1.8

787.6 3.4 688.0 1.6

793.1 3.2 691.0 1.8

799.6 3.1 694.8 1.8

807.4 3.1 697.8 1.7

816.8 3.7 703.6 2.3

826.5 4.2 709.5 2.7

837.2 4.7 716.0 3.0

848.9 5.1 722.5 3.5

861.5 5.5 730.1 3.8

3.1 874.5

3.2 888.4

5.8 737.9 4.0

6.1 746.2 4.2

1.5 -0.2 10.3

1.4 0.1 10.4

1.1 0.7 10.3

1.7 1.3 10.4

1.1 1.1 10.3

1.1 1.0 10.3

1.1 0.9 10.2

1.1 0.8 10.1

1.5 0.9 9.9

1.7 1.0 9.7

1.8 1.0 9.4

2.0 1.0 9.2

2.1 1.0 8.9

8.8

8.7

8.5

8.4

8.2

8.0

7.8

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch)

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S.

1.3

1.2

1.3

1.2

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods

1.5 2.6 -2.7 1.2 -1.2

2.0 1.5 -3.9 1.9 0.6

1.6 1.9 -4.9 1.3 -1.0

1.9 2.0 -4.0 1.9 0.4

1.7 2.0 -3.4 2.2 0.1

1.7 1.2 -1.9 1.9 -0.4

1.9 0.3 0.5 1.9 -0.6

2.0 -0.5 3.6 2.1 -0.7

2.1 -1.4 7.1 2.1 -0.8

2.1 -2.1 10.5 2.2 -0.8

2.3 -2.3 12.8 2.1 -0.8

2.4 -2.2 14.5 2.3 -0.8

2.5 -1.8 15.7 2.5 -0.8

Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities

2.4 2.3 -2.6 3.2 0.4

2.6 2.3 -2.1 4.4 1.3

2.5 2.0 -0.4 3.7 1.2

2.6 2.9 1.1 3.4 1.4

3.2 3.3 2.8 2.5 1.8

3.1 3.5 2.9 2.0 1.9

3.2 3.7 3.0 1.9 1.7

3.5 3.6 3.2 1.7 1.1

3.5 3.6 2.8 1.3 0.6

3.6 3.4 2.4 0.8 0.1

3.5 3.4 2.4 0.7 0.1

3.8 3.3 2.3 0.6 0.3

4.0 3.3 2.6 0.8 0.4

Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't.

2.4 2.6 5.4 -3.0 -0.7

4.3 2.8 5.4 -0.7 -1.2

3.9 2.6 4.0 1.4 -1.9

3.7 2.7 4.1 1.7 -2.1

2.9 2.5 3.0 1.0 -2.5

2.8 2.2 2.5 0.9 -2.5

3.7 2.3 1.7 2.0 -2.5

4.6 1.8 0.9 4.8 -2.5

5.3 1.6 0.6 4.9 -2.5

5.9 1.9 0.2 3.1 -2.5

6.7 1.8 -0.1 1.0 -2.5

7.2 1.7 -0.2 -0.7 -2.3

7.4 1.8 -0.5 0.1 -2.2

State & Local Gov't.

-1.5

-2.1

-2.6

-1.3

-0.8

-0.4

0.0

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.7

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)

19,156.4 19,208.9 19,264.3 19,323.6 19,389.2 19,463.2 19,540.0 19,619.4 19,702.3 19,787.8 19,876.0 19,966.7 20,059.8

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

Net Migration (thous) (%Ch)

37.4 0.5

38.9 3.4

41.8 9.7

45.6 24.8

51.9 39.0

60.2 54.9

62.9 50.8

65.5 43.6

68.9 32.7

71.4 18.5

73.9 17.4

76.3 16.6

78.6 14.0

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

51.0

50.1

51.9

54.5

58.3

65.5

Housing 75.3

83.9

94.0

103.5

114.8

126.8

135.9

Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

36.2 14.8

36.1 14.0

36.1 15.8

36.7 17.8

38.5 19.8

44.7 20.8

52.8 22.5

60.8 23.1

68.4 25.6

75.5 28.1

83.8 30.9

92.9 33.9

99.1 36.9

3.6

2.7

1.7

1.4

Consumer Prices 1.5 1.9 1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.5

(%Ch) *Quarterly at an annual rate 14

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2011

F l o r id a S umm a r y T a b l e s Table 3. Employment Quarterly*

2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7,285.7 7,324.7 7,346.8 7,375.7 7,411.0 7,447.0 7,484.4 7,522.9 7,564.0 7,606.8 7,655.7 7,704.0 7,756.6

Manufacturing

307.3

309.3

311.5

312.4

314.1

315.3

317.4

319.0

320.6

322.2

324.1

326.3

328.5

Durable Goods

203.6

205.2

207.3

208.4

210.2

211.6

213.9

215.7

217.5

219.3

221.5

223.8

226.2

Wood Products

8.4

8.6

8.8

8.9

9.3

9.5

9.6

9.8

10.0

10.3

10.7

11.1

11.5

Computer & Electronics

42.7

42.8

42.6

42.7

43.5

43.9

43.7

43.3

43.1

43.2

43.4

43.6

Transportation Equipment

33.5

34.1

34.9

35.5

36.0

36.6

37.3

37.9

38.4

38.8

39.3

39.7

40.0

103.8

104.1

103.9

103.7

103.5

103.3

103.1

102.9

102.7

102.5

102.3

28.0

28.2

28.3

28.4

28.5

28.6

28.7

28.8

28.9

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

6,978.4 7,015.5 7,035.3 7,063.3 7,096.9 7,131.7 7,167.0 7,203.9 7,243.3 7,284.7 7,331.6 7,377.7 7,428.1 5.6

5.6

5.7

5.6

5.5

Construction

325.6

321.1

318.5

315.8

314.6

315.1

320.0

327.2

337.0

348.2

361.0

374.6

389.9

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

229.1

231.0

232.6

234.8

236.8

239.0

241.1

243.3

245.3

247.1

249.3

251.3

253.3

Wholesale Trade

298.0

300.2

301.9

303.6

306.3

308.9

311.0

313.2

314.7

316.4

318.4

320.6

322.9

Retail Trade

956.3

964.7

968.4

974.2

979.8

984.4

987.3

991.2

992.4

991.9

994.0

997.0 1,000.5

Information

130.3

131.6

132.8

131.8

131.6

132.8

135.5

138.2

138.0

136.9

136.8

137.2

Prof. & Bus. Services

138.2

1,066.6 1,079.9 1,083.3 1,088.3 1,098.1 1,109.8 1,123.5 1,138.6 1,156.7 1,175.6 1,198.4 1,220.5 1,241.8

Admin. & Support

537.5

548.3

552.2

556.6

564.2

571.0

578.9

587.8

598.2

612.2

628.5

645.3

660.7

Prof. Sci & Tech

449.9

452.4

451.9

452.5

454.8

459.7

465.6

471.7

479.5

484.2

490.5

495.8

501.6

79.2

79.1

79.0

79.2

79.3

79.4

79.5

Financial Activities

470.5

472.1

473.4

476.3

478.8

481.1

481.4

481.5

481.9

481.7

482.1

483.0

483.8

Real Estate & Rent

156.3

157.3

158.2

159.5

160.3

160.9

161.4

162.0

162.8

163.4

164.3

165.2

166.2

Fin. & Insurance

314.2

314.8

315.2

316.8

318.5

320.3

320.0

319.5

319.1

318.3

317.8

317.6

Mgmt. of Co.

Edu. & Health Service

1,113.3 1,121.1 1,126.5 1,134.2 1,140.9 1,145.5 1,151.9 1,155.1 1,158.6 1,166.8 1,172.4 1,174.6 1,179.0

Education Services

152.7

152.5

151.9

151.2

150.4

150.0

Health Services

960.6

968.6

974.5

983.0

990.4

995.5 1,002.5 1,006.4 1,010.5 1,019.3 1,025.5 1,028.1 1,033.0

Leisure & Hospitality

980.7

989.3

997.5 1,005.4 1,010.3 1,014.3 1,014.9 1,014.3 1,016.1 1,016.1 1,013.8 1,012.0 1,011.2

Other Services

311.8

312.4

312.2

Government

313.4

314.7

315.8

149.4

315.9

148.7

316.3

148.1

316.8

147.5

317.2

146.9

317.7

146.5

318.1

146.1

317.5

1,090.6 1,086.5 1,082.5 1,079.8 1,079.4 1,079.3 1,079.0 1,079.3 1,080.2 1,081.2 1,082.1 1,083.2 1,084.4

Federal Gov't.

131.8

130.9

130.1

129.3

128.5

127.7

126.9

126.1

125.3

124.5

123.7

123.1

122.5

State & Local Gov't

958.8

955.6

952.4

950.5

950.9

951.6

952.1

953.2

955.0

956.7

958.4

960.1

961.9

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r id a S umm a r y T a b l e s Table 4. Employment Annual

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7,799.5

8,003.7

8,019.0

7,735.5

7,251.8

7,177.2

7234.7

7,364.5

7,504.6

7,680.8

Manufacturing

415.5

416.5

399.0

371.1

323.9

306.8

306.3

311.8

318.1

325.3

Durable Goods

281.0

284.7

269.2

249.4

214.4

201.9

202.2

207.8

214.7

222.7

Wood Products

22.4

21.6

17.0

12.8

9.1

8.4

8.9

9.7

10.9

Computer & Electronics

51.4

50.1

49.2

48.0

44.6

42.9

42.7

43.6

43.3

Transportation Equipment

45.6

45.7

44.6

42.5

34.9

33.5

33.2

35.1

37.5

39.4

134.5

131.8

129.8

121.7

109.4

105.0

104.0

103.4

102.6

32.8

31.4

31.7

29.7

27.9

27.4

27.8

28.3

28.6

28.8

7,384.0

7,587.2

7,620.0

7,364.4

6,927.9

6,870.4

6,928.4

7,052.7

7,186.5

7,355.5

7.1

6.6

6.7

6.2

5.5

5.3

5.5

5.6

5.5

Construction

633.0

677.8

618.5

511.5

392.3

346.2

330.9

317.5

324.8

368.4

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

247.4

250.9

251.2

245.8

229.4

224.2

227.8

233.8

242.2

250.3

Wholesale Trade

341.4

351.3

356.7

345.6

317.9

307.5

302.1

303.0

312.0

319.6

Retail Trade

993.8

1,013.8

1,018.2

988.6

922.8

924.3

939.1

971.8

988.8

995.9

Information

163.2

161.8

161.3

155.9

142.4

135.3

130.9

132.0

136.1

137.3

1,137.9

1,186.8

1,194.6

1,121.3

1,031.7

1,036.8

1,048.4

1,087.4

1,132.1

1,209.1

Admin. & Support

629.2

655.8

653.3

582.1

520.5

528.4

526.3

555.3

584.0

636.7

Prof. Sci & Tech

431.1

451.6

460.2

456.4

431.3

430.6

443.4

452.9

469.1

493.0

77.6

79.3

81.1

82.8

80.0

77.8

78.7

79.2

79.0

79.4

Financial Activities

535.8

552.7

547.2

521.9

483.4

470.1

468.6

475.2

481.5

482.7

Real Estate & Rent

176.7

182.5

178.1

169.8

154.9

150.6

154.1

158.8

161.8

164.8

Fin. & Insurance

359.1

370.2

369.1

352.1

328.5

319.6

314.5

316.3

319.7

317.9

Edu. & Health Service

969.0

994.8

1,025.4

1,047.0

1,059.8

1,078.9

1,101.7

1,130.6

1,152.8

1,173.2

Education Services

124.7

128.3

134.1

138.0

143.0

151.2

151.4

151.5

149.0

146.7

Health Services

844.4

866.5

891.3

909.0

916.9

927.7

950.3

979.1

1,003.7

1,026.5

Leisure & Hospitality

939.2

953.3

972.2

958.8

915.0

916.8

961.0

1,000.6

1,014.9

1,013.3

Other Services

334.9

338.1

345.6

335.4

312.6

310.2

311.4

313.2

316.2

317.6

1,081.2

1,099.4

1,122.4

1,126.5

1,115.2

1,114.8

1,101.0

1,082.0

1,079.4

1,082.7

Federal Gov't.

128.7

127.8

128.0

129.8

132.7

141.9

132.2

129.7

126.5

123.5

State & Local Gov't

952.6

971.6

994.4

996.7

982.5

972.9

968.8

952.3

953.0

959.3

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Prof. & Bus. Services

Mgmt. of Co.

Government

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2011

F l o r id a S umm a r y T a b l e s Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly*

2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

761.83

771.84

778.30

785.44

792.94

799.33

807.72

816.13

825.06

838.46

849.38

862.40

875.40

Wages & Salaries

339.98

343.75

346.68

349.89

353.75

357.79

361.86

366.19

370.76

375.76

380.73

385.80

391.19

Other Labor Income

77.65

79.00

79.73

80.30

81.08

82.31

83.26

84.17

85.32

86.84

88.12

89.26

90.58

Nonfarm

43.53

44.08

44.66

45.10

45.63

46.10

46.84

47.49

48.35

49.26

50.36

51.18

52.02

0.59

0.67

0.75

0.79

0.84

0.88

0.90

0.89

0.88

0.89

0.87

0.85

Property Income

188.91

192.92

194.61

196.57

198.00

198.87

200.06

201.43

202.90

204.44

207.51

212.83

217.77

Transfer Payments

155.84

157.37

158.31

159.65

161.00

162.92

164.95

166.56

168.16

174.70

176.01

177.35

178.72

46.73

48.01

48.50

48.94

49.47

51.64

52.28

52.75

53.48

55.60

56.40

57.08

57.97

Farm

Social Insurance

Billions 2005 $ Personal Income

665.15

671.91

676.29

679.80

684.07

686.71

690.86

694.87

699.29

707.18

712.55

719.72

726.71

Wages & Salaries

296.84

299.25

301.24

302.83

305.18

307.39

309.51

311.78

314.24

316.92

319.40

321.97

324.74

Other Labor Income

67.80

68.77

69.28

69.50

69.95

70.71

71.22

71.66

72.32

73.24

73.92

74.50

75.19

Nonfarm

38.00

38.37

38.80

39.03

39.36

39.60

40.06

40.43

40.98

41.55

42.25

42.71

43.19

0.52

0.59

0.65

0.68

0.73

0.75

0.77

0.75

0.73

0.71

Property Income

164.93

167.95

169.10

170.13

170.82

170.85

171.12

171.50

171.97

172.43

174.08

177.61

180.78

Transfer Payments

136.06

137.00

137.56

138.18

138.89

139.96

141.08

141.81

142.52

147.35

147.66

148.01

148.36

40.80

41.80

42.14

42.36

42.68

44.37

44.71

44.91

45.33

46.89

47.31

47.64

48.12

Farm

Social Insurance

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

986.58

985.03 1003.17 1040.86 1081.93 1143.19 1186.89 1218.59 1227.51 1255.55 1287.96 1332.82 1361.69

Retail Sales (Billions $)

270.87

273.63

276.05

279.84

282.86

286.34

289.45

292.85

295.62

299.00

302.98

307.47

312.26

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

236.49

238.20

239.86

242.20

244.02

246.00

247.57

249.34

250.56

252.18

254.18

256.60

259.22

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r id a S umm a r y T a b l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Billions Current Dollars

Personal Income

633.19

690.27

721.05

740.31

697.36

720.22

753.88

782.13

812.06

856.41

Wages & Salaries

310.34

333.10

344.69

339.76

322.37

325.62

335.95

348.52

364.15

383.37

Other Labor Income

69.52

72.91

73.10

74.45

74.02

75.00

76.80

80.02

83.77

88.70

Nonfarm

42.00

45.12

43.69

40.98

37.28

41.02

42.88

44.86

47.19

50.71

1.47

1.23

0.87

0.63

0.74

0.93

0.59

0.76

0.89

0.86

156.37

181.69

196.53

210.88

172.16

176.72

187.28

195.53

200.82

210.64

Transfer Payments

98.06

104.41

111.24

122.47

138.15

149.12

154.66

159.08

165.65

176.69

Social Insurance

46.20

49.91

50.94

50.80

49.19

50.09

46.32

48.73

52.54

56.76

Farm Property Income

Billions 2005 $

Personal Income

633.12

671.93

683.46

679.57

638.85

648.18

662.36

678.02

692.93

716.54

Wages & Salaries

310.31

324.26

326.74

311.90

295.32

293.05

295.17

302.12

310.73

320.76

Other Labor Income

69.51

70.98

69.29

68.34

67.80

67.50

67.48

69.37

71.48

74.21

Nonfarm

42.00

43.92

41.42

37.62

34.15

36.91

37.67

38.89

40.27

42.42

1.48

1.20

0.83

0.58

0.67

0.84

0.52

0.66

0.76

0.72

156.34

176.85

186.26

193.57

157.75

159.04

164.54

169.50

171.36

176.23

Transfer Payments

98.05

101.64

105.44

112.41

126.53

134.20

135.89

137.91

141.35

147.84

Social Insurance

46.20

48.59

48.29

46.64

45.06

45.08

40.70

42.24

44.83

47.49

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations 1449.69 1416.66 1242.20

951.97

694.16

849.49

929.86 1027.75 1194.05 1309.51

Retail Sales (Billions $)

241.43

257.60

262.34

255.40

232.63

246.73

264.98

278.09

291.07

305.43

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

241.42

250.78

248.67

234.44

213.09

222.05

232.81

241.07

248.37

255.54

Farm Property Income

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2011

F l o r id a C h a r t s

Florida Personal Income 12% 10% 8% 5% 3% 1% -1% -4% -6% -8%

(% change year ago)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Florida Real Gross State Product 8%

(% change year ago)

6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r id a C h a r t s

Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate

Florida Construction Employment (Thousands)

700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2011

F l o r id a C h a r t s

Florida Manufacturing Employment 500.0

(Thousands)

450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0 250.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment 1650.0

(Thousands)

1600.0 1550.0 1500.0 1450.0 1400.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r id a C h a r t s

Florida Financial Activities Employment (Thousands)

560.0 540.0 520.0 500.0 480.0 460.0 440.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Florida Professional & Business Services Employment (Thousands)

1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2011

F l o r id a C h a r t s

Florida Education & Health Services Employment 1200.0 1150.0 1100.0 1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0 750.0

(Thousands)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Florida Information Employment 190.0

(Thousands)

180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r id a C h a r t s

Florida Gross State Product 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

(% change year ago)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL Gross State Product

Florida Employment 8200.0 8000.0 7800.0 7600.0 7400.0 7200.0 7000.0 6800.0 6600.0

(Thousands)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Wage & Salary Employment

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2011

F l o r id a C h a r t s

Florida Leisure & Hospitality Employment 1050.0

(Thousands)

1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Florida Federal Government Employment (Thousands)

160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Florida State & Local Government Employment 1000.0

(Thousands)

950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r id a C h a r t s

Florida Housing Starts (thousands)

300.0

250.0

200.0

150.0

100.0

50.0

0.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Total Private Housing Starts 30 year Mortgage Rates

New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations (% change year ago)

60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Florida Consumer Price Index (% change year ago)

6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL CPI

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2011

F l o r id a N e w s S umm a r i e s Florida tax incentive programs creating 1 out of every 3 jobs promised • Since 1995, the State of Florida has signed contracts with companies worth a total of $1.7 billion on promises of 225,000 jobs. • One-third of the jobs have been filled while 43% of contracts have been paid, costing an average of $10,237 per job. • Last year, the legislature allowed Gov. Rick Scott to distribute $93 million in cash incentives to businesses and created the Department of Economic Opportunity to streamline business development programs. Source: St. Petersburg Times, October 25, 2011 Florida judge: cuts to state employees’ pay violated contract • A Leon County circuit judge told state lawyers that a 3% cut in pay for state and local government workers, shifting the money to the state’s pension fund, broke contracts with state employees. • The Legislature made the pay cuts and eliminated cost of living adjustments in retirement benefits in order to save $1 billion in this year’s budget. • Judge Jackie Fulford did not specify the time when she would release her ruling. Source: St. Petersburg Times, October 26, 2011 Feds., Florida announce major effort to restore River of Grass • The South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Task Force, composed of senior policy officials in the Federal and State governments, announced a fasttrack plan that, when authorized by Congress, will improve the Everglades with more fresh and clean water. • The plan will use recent scientific recommendations to use publicly owned lands for the treatment and storage of water, increase clean water flow to the Everglades and divert pollutants away from the wetlands. Source: EvergladesPlan.org, October 27, 2011 State department to target illegal sales of liquor, tobacco • The Florida Department of Business and Professional Regulation’s Division of Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco is stepping up enforcement of laws regarding the sale of tobacco and alcohol. • The department will be assisting local law

enforcement agencies to ensure compliance with current law, collect taxes and fees, and keep products out of the hands of underage individuals. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, November 23, 2011 State approves rate increases for Progress Energy • The Florida Public Service Commission unanimously approved $140 million in rate increases for Progress Energy. • The increases in costs will fund replacement fuel after the failure of the Crystal River nuclear power plant when an upgrade caused cracks in the reactor containment walls and to pay for the advance nuclear cost recovery for a planned nuclear plant in Levy County. • Beginning in January, the average bill for customers will increase by $3.85. Source: The Florida Independent, November 23, 2011 Daytona Chamber advocates internet sales tax • The Daytona Regional Chamber of Commerce urged state lawmakers to pass legislation requiring online retailers to collect Florida sales tax on purchases from consumers in the state. • Current state law requires residents to pay a “use tax” on online purchases, but collects little revenue from it because purchases are voluntarily reported. • The Chamber argues that it would not be a “new tax,” but closes a loophole for revenue the state should already be collecting, which could raise up to $1.5 billion according to estimates, and that an absence of the tax puts in-state retailers at a price disadvantage. Source: The Daytona Beach News-Journal, November 30, 2011 8 Florida firms get NASA grants • The NASA Small Business Innovation Research and Small Business Technology Transfer programs address technology gaps in NASA missions. • The two programs awarded a combined $38 million for 300 proposals; six Florida companies received SBIR awards, and two Florida companies received SBTT awards. • The grants given were for Phase I, studies of the feasibility of the companies’ ideas. If they successfully complete this phase, they can apply for Phase II grants for further research, and then Phase III to commercialize the results. Source: Orlando Business Journal, December 2, 2011 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

M e t r os

D e c e m b e r 2 0 11

F l o r id a F O RE C A S T

D e l t o n a – D a y t o n a B e a ch – O r mo n d B e a ch

Profiles

O u t l oo k S umm a r i e s

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is comprised only of Volusia County. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway, which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500.

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is expected to show modest growth in most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast. Personal income is expected to average 4.6 percent growth, while the per capita income level will be 30.6. Average annual wage will be at the lowest level of the studied areas at 39.0. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.6 percent. Population growth will be the lowest of the studied metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) at 0.6 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 13,439.25 (Mill).

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 494,593 as of 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 254,896 in June of 2011 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 11.0% as of June 2011, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 28,125 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). Top Area Employers: • Volusia County Schools – 8,080 employees • Florida Hospital (All Divisions) – 4,248 employees • Halifax Health – 3,957 employees • Volusia County Government – 3,280 employees • Publix – 2,486 employees • State of Florida – 2,361 employees • Walmart – 2,160 employees • Daytona State College – 1,797 employees • U.S. Government – 1,422 employees • Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University – 1,176 employees Source: Volusia County Government Department of Economic Development, 2011

The employment growth rate is expected to average 1.8 percent each year. Unemployment will average 10.7 percent annually. The Deltona MSA will experience the most growth in the Professional and Business Services sector, with an average growth rate of 4.2 percent annually. The Leisure sector will see the highest growth in the Deltona MSA at 3.5 percent annually. The Education and Health Services sector follows with an annual growth rate of 2.3 percent. The State and Local Government and Federal Government sectors will experience a decline of -0.1 and -6.2 percent, respectively.

M e t r o N e w s S umm a r i e s Deltona OKs initial version of city ethics ordinance • Two city commissioners pushed for an ordinance that would create a few rules, including disallowing commissioners from intimidating employees with threats of dismissal; belittling any form of business; accepting gifts in exchange for a personal gain; and purposely interrupting public meetings.

• The ordinance bans gifts worth $25 or more. If a worker does receive something of value, the worker must report it and dispose of it, by means such as donating the gift to a charity.

• Deltona wants to send a message that they do take ethics seriously, especially in the wake of disreputable acts in other parts of the government.

Source: The Daytona Beach News-Journal, November 22, 2011 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

D e l t o n a – D a y t o n a B e a ch – O r mo n d B e a ch

$1.5M project under way at Fish Memorial • Harty Tractor Co. of Orange City is leading construction efforts at Florida Hospital Fish Memorial. The company plans to increase storm water capacity as well as increase parking spots for patients. • This two-part project will add 129 spaces for the Outpatient Services Center, and is expected to be completed by December 7. This coincides with the same day the Fish Memorial will be opening its fifth floor unit, adding 36 patient beds. • Phase II will begin early next year. Source: The Daytona Beach News-Journal, November 23, 2011 Area whole food store opens 2nd in Port Orange today • Another choice for grocery store shopping has opened in Port Orange. Love Whole Food Café & Market sells natural and organic goods. • Many customers told the local owners that they would shop more often if it was closer to their homes, sparking interest for the new 8,000-sq. ft store. Organic food consumption has grown substantially over the last ten years. From 2000 to 2008, sales have grown 15-20% annually. • The new store has 22 full and part-time employees to assist Love’s in selling their 300 types of fruits and vegetables, pre-made dinners, and café products. Source: The Daytona Beach News-Journal, November 23, 2011 Feds to spend part of $2.4M grant to study affordable housing near SunRail • The East Central Florida Regional Planning Council will examine affordable housing desires and approaches. The Council would like to provide housing near the first twelve SunRail stations. • The Housing and Urban Development website says the grant is expected to revive “minority/ low-income neighborhoods.” HUD hopes to 30

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2011

supplement the train stations with bus, bicycle, and pedestrian links. • DeBarry is now looking into creating a community redevelopment agency to benefit the community. Source: Daytona Beach News-Journal, November 23, 2011 New Smyrna Beach steps in to help homeless agency • Halifax Urban Ministries were informed that their lease is expiring due to another investor buying the building. • Thanks to the City Commission, the group will be relocated to the old mainland shuffleboard building. The group will stay there until March 2012. • The assistant city manager reported that “it is important to keep HUM’s presence in community.” City officials are happy to have it open during the holiday season. Source: The Daytona-Beach News Journal, November 23, 2011 Deltona leaders question cost of library complex • Deltona agreed to an expenditure in 2007 to maintain and operate the learning center and entertainment venue at the Deltona Regional Library. However, city officials are now questioning the contract. • Commissioner Michael Carmolingo thought the contract was for maintaining the entertainment center, and claims that the city was not advised as to just how much the annual payment would be. • The annual bill is for $250,000 for operation and maintenance costs. Mayor Masiarczyk is looking to see if the terms of the deal can be adjusted. The amphitheatre is underused, and to make the payment worthwhile to the city, it needs to be utilized more. Source: The Daytona Beach News-Journal, December 1, 2011

D e l t o n a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; D a y t o n a B e a ch â&#x20AC;&#x201C; O r mo n d B e a ch Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

1.4

1.6

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product 15000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

13000.0 12000.0 11000.0 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate

10000.0 9000.0

Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment 175.0 170.0 165.0 160.0 155.0 150.0 145.0 140.0

1.2

14000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

(Thousands)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Deltona Payroll Employment

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Gross Metro Product

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

D e l t o n a – D a y t o n a B e a ch – O r mo n d B e a ch

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

December 2011 V2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

14.3 6.3 5.5 8.8 14.3 3.2 29.3 29.3 32.0 3.4

15.3 7.3 5.9 9.3 14.9 4.4 30.9 30.1 34.0 6.1

16.1 5.4 6.1 10.0 15.3 2.7 32.4 30.7 35.3 3.8

16.3 1.3 6.0 10.3 15.0 -1.9 32.9 30.2 35.8 1.5

15.4 -6.0 5.6 9.7 14.1 -6.2 31.0 28.4 35.6 -0.5

15.9 3.6 5.7 10.2 14.3 1.7 32.2 29.0 36.6 2.8

16.7 5.1 5.9 10.8 14.7 2.6 33.8 29.7 37.6 2.8

17.4 4.1 6.2 11.2 15.1 2.7 35.2 30.5 38.4 2.0

18.0 3.7 6.4 11.6 15.4 2.1 36.2 30.9 39.4 2.6

19.0 5.4 6.8 12.2 15.9 3.3 37.6 31.4 40.5 2.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

170.8 3.9 10.2 4.3 160.6 3.9 14.8 14.5 33.2 3.7 4.8 26.0 2.4 2.2 -3.3 7.3 5.5 19.6 8.1 30.5 -0.7 21.7 2.9 8.2 0.1 1.4 1.2 21.8 3.5

173.9 1.8 10.6 3.9 163.3 1.6 15.9 7.3 33.2 0.0 5.0 25.9 2.4 2.4 8.3 7.9 7.2 19.4 -0.9 30.5 0.2 21.6 -0.4 8.3 1.2 1.4 -0.6 22.8 4.4

172.5 -0.8 10.3 -2.6 162.2 -0.7 14.2 -10.3 33.6 1.2 5.3 25.8 2.5 2.5 5.2 8.0 2.2 18.0 -7.1 30.6 0.2 22.6 4.6 8.1 -1.7 1.4 -0.6 23.1 1.5

166.9 -3.3 9.1 -12.2 157.8 -2.7 11.3 -20.2 32.5 -3.3 5.2 24.9 2.4 2.6 3.6 7.7 -4.1 17.4 -3.2 31.9 4.2 22.5 -0.2 8.2 1.0 1.4 0.0 22.2 -4.0

157.4 -5.7 7.8 -14.0 149.6 -5.2 8.8 -22.2 30.1 -7.2 4.9 23.2 2.1 2.3 -11.9 7.1 -7.8 17.5 0.2 31.5 -1.1 21.2 -5.8 8.5 3.2 1.4 2.4 21.1 -5.0

154.7 -1.7 7.4 -4.8 147.2 -1.6 7.7 -12.9 30.0 -0.4 4.7 23.4 1.9 2.0 -10.8 7.1 -0.5 16.8 -3.7 31.5 0.1 21.5 1.5 8.4 -1.0 1.5 6.1 20.6 -2.3

156.2 0.9 7.3 -1.3 148.8 1.1 7.2 -7.0 30.1 0.3 4.7 23.6 1.9 1.9 -6.3 7.0 -1.0 16.8 -0.1 32.4 2.7 23.5 9.1 8.4 -0.4 1.3 -17.6 20.3 -1.4

159.4 2.1 7.4 1.0 151.9 2.1 6.8 -4.3 30.6 1.7 4.7 24.1 1.9 1.9 1.4 7.1 1.2 17.6 4.6 33.4 3.2 24.5 4.5 8.5 1.2 1.2 -3.5 20.2 -0.4

162.5 2.0 7.6 2.4 154.9 1.9 7.0 2.0 31.3 2.4 4.9 24.6 2.0 2.0 4.0 7.2 1.6 18.4 4.8 34.0 1.9 24.8 0.9 8.6 1.5 1.2 -1.9 20.3 0.4

166.1 2.3 7.8 2.5 158.3 2.2 7.9 12.9 31.8 1.6 5.0 24.8 2.1 2.1 1.8 7.2 0.4 19.8 7.3 34.6 1.7 24.6 -0.6 8.7 0.8 1.2 -1.8 20.5 0.9

13321 487.3 2.0 242.7 4.3 3.6 6434 5166 1268

13814 495.0 1.6 247.2 1.8 3.2 4268 3110 1158

13894 498.4 0.7 250.7 1.4 4.0 2186 1595 591

13442 497.0 -0.3 254.2 1.4 6.5 1399 1037 362

12876 494.8 -0.4 253.3 -0.4 10.5 663 603 60

12926 494.4 -0.1 253.5 0.1 12.0 718 657 61

12974 494.2 0.0 253.8 0.1 10.9 1279 594 685

13213 495.0 0.2 256.0 0.9 10.7 1339 860 479

13528 499.1 0.8 257.4 0.6 10.9 2023 1599 423

14042 506.0 1.4 259.9 1.0 10.3 3172 2537 635

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2011

D e l t o n a – D a y t o n a B e a ch – O r mo n d B e a ch

Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

December 2011 V2

2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

16.9 4.7 6 10.9 14.8 2.1 34.3 29.9 37.8 2.2

17.2 4.2 6.1 11.1 14.9 2.2 34.7 30.2 38 1.9

17.3 3.7 6.1 11.2 15 2.5 35 30.4 38.3 1.7

17.5 4.2 6.2 11.3 15.1 3.1 35.3 30.6 38.5 2

17.7 4.3 6.3 11.4 15.2 3 35.6 30.7 38.7 2.4

17.8 3.6 6.3 11.5 15.3 2.3 35.8 30.7 39 2.5

17.9 3.6 6.4 11.5 15.3 2 36 30.8 39.2 2.6

18.1 3.7 6.5 11.7 15.4 2 36.3 30.9 39.5 2.7

18.3 3.8 6.6 11.8 15.5 2 36.6 31 39.8 2.8

18.6 4.8 6.6 12 15.7 2.9 37 31.2 40.1 2.9

18.9 5.1 6.7 12.1 15.8 3.1 37.3 31.3 40.4 2.9

19.1 5.5 6.8 12.3 16 3.4 37.7 31.5 40.7 3

19.4 5.9 6.9 12.5 16.1 3.8 38.1 31.7 41 3

160.4 1.7 7.5 2.4 152.9 1.7 6.8 -3.7 30.9 2.5 4.8 24.3 2 1.9 1.7 7.1 2.2 17.8 2.5 33.7 2.4 24.7 2.6 8.5 1.5 1.2 -1.7 20.2 -0.6

161.2 1.8 7.5 2.4 153.6 1.7 6.8 -2 31.1 2.4 4.8 24.5 2 2 1.8 7.2 2.2 18 3.1 33.8 2.2 24.8 2 8.6 1.7 1.2 -1.6 20.3 -0.2

162.1 1.9 7.6 2.3 154.5 1.9 6.9 0.2 31.3 2.4 4.8 24.6 2 2 2.5 7.2 2 18.3 4.4 34 2.2 24.8 1.2 8.6 1.8 1.2 -1.8 20.3 0.2

162.9 2 7.6 2.5 155.3 2 7 3.3 31.5 2.4 4.9 24.7 2 2.1 5.6 7.2 1.4 18.5 5.4 34.1 1.7 24.8 0.4 8.6 1.4 1.2 -2 20.3 0.6

163.8 2.1 7.7 2.4 156.1 2.1 7.2 6.7 31.6 2.2 4.9 24.7 2 2.1 5.9 7.2 1 18.9 6.4 34.2 1.4 24.8 0.1 8.6 1.1 1.2 -2.1 20.4 0.8

164.8 2.2 7.7 2.5 157 2.2 7.5 10 31.7 1.9 5 24.7 2.1 2 4.3 7.2 0.3 19.2 6.8 34.4 1.8 24.8 -0.1 8.6 0.9 1.2 -1.9 20.4 0.9

165.7 2.2 7.8 2.3 157.9 2.2 7.7 12.2 31.7 1.6 5 24.7 2.1 2 2.2 7.2 0.3 19.6 7.4 34.6 1.6 24.7 -0.5 8.7 1 1.2 -1.8 20.5 1

166.5 2.2 7.8 2.5 158.7 2.2 8 13.8 31.9 1.4 5 24.8 2.1 2.1 0.2 7.2 0.5 20 7.7 34.6 1.5 24.6 -0.7 8.7 0.9 1.2 -1.7 20.5 0.9

167.6 2.3 7.9 2.7 159.7 2.3 8.3 15.2 32 1.5 5.1 24.9 2.1 2.1 0.7 7.2 0.4 20.3 7.4 34.8 1.7 24.5 -0.9 8.7 0.5 1.2 -1.6 20.6 0.9

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

157.7 2.3 7.3 -1.1 150.4 2.5 7 -3.4 30.1 0.5 4.6 23.7 1.9 1.9 -5.3 7 0 17.3 4.2 32.9 4.5 24.1 9.1 8.4 -0.6 1.2 -8.8 20.4 -0.3 13087.4 494.1 -0.1 254.6 0.3 10.4 1285 688 598

158.4 2.6 7.4 -0.3 151 2.7 6.9 -4.4 30.3 0.6 4.7 23.9 1.9 1.9 -2.3 7 0.2 17.5 7.3 33.1 3.8 24.3 7.1 8.4 0.6 1.2 -7.7 20.3 0.8

159 2.1 7.4 -0.2 151.6 2.2 6.9 -5.1 30.5 1 4.7 24 1.9 2 4.1 7.1 0.5 17.5 6.1 33.3 3.8 24.5 4.8 8.4 1.7 1.2 -3 20.2 -0.8

159.7 1.8 7.4 2.1 152.3 1.8 6.8 -4.1 30.7 2.6 4.7 24.2 2 1.9 2.3 7.1 1.8 17.6 2.8 33.5 2.7 24.7 3.6 8.5 1.2 1.2 -1.3 20.2 -1.1

13132 13175.8 13237.3 13307.5 13358.6 13471.1 13579.6 13701.1 13830.4 13969.5 14108.5 14258.8 494.3 494.6 495.2 496.1 497 498.2 499.7 501.3 503.1 505 507 509 0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 255.1 255.9 256.5 256.4 256.6 257.1 257.6 258.4 258.8 259.4 260.2 261 0.9 0.9 1 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.9 1 1 10.5 10.6 10.8 10.9 11 11 11 10.8 10.7 10.5 10.2 9.9 1265 1298 1351 1440 1608 1853 2176 2454 2715 3022 3357 3595 762 823 885 969 1182 1478 1757 1981 2185 2425 2685 2851 503 475 466 471 426 375 420 473 530 597 671 744

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Gainesville

Profiles The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist counties and is located in the north-central portion of the state. This metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history museum.

O u t l oo k S umm a r i e s

• An unemployment rate of 8.3% as of June 2011, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 11,471 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database)

The Gainesville MSA is expected to show modest growth in all of the economic indicators measured in this forecast. Personal income growth will see a 3.8% growth while per capita income level is expected to average 32.3. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.7 percent, while the average annual wage level will be at 44. Population growth will average 0.8 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be the second lowest of the studied MSAs at a level of 9,029.10 (Mill). Gainesville will see an employment growth rate of 0.8 percent annually. The Gainesville MSA will maintain the lowest unemployment rate of the twelve studied, at 7.7 percent. The fastest growing sector in the area will be the Professional and Business Services sector, with an average growth rate of 3.9 percent annually. This is followed by the Leisure sector with an average annual growth rate of 2.8 percent. The Financial, Information, State and Local Government, and Federal Government sectors will experience a decline, with annual growth rates of -0.2,-0.4, -0.7, and -4.2 percent, respectively.

Top Area Employers:

M e t r o N e w s S umm a r i e s

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 264,275 as of 2010 Census (U.S. Census Bureau) • Alachua County population estimate of 247,336 as of 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Gilchrist County population estimate of 16,939 as of 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 138,290 in 2011 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• University of Florida – 14,723 employees • Shands Hospital – 13,011 employees • Veterans Affairs Medical Center – 4,317 employees • Alachua County School Board – 4,299 employees • City of Gainesville – 2,200 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 2,056 employees • Alachua County Government – 2,029 employees • North Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,700 employees • Nationwide Insurance Company – 1,300 employees • Santa Fe Community College – 796 employees Source: Alachua County, Shands Hospital

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2011

Alachua firm wins federal contract worth up to $31M • The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services awarded a research grant of $4.8 million to Nanotherapeutics to work on a drug that can help reverse the damaging effects of radiation in a dirty bomb attack. • The grant could possibly be extended for five years, and would total $31 million. • The company has previously received grants for its work in treatments for diseases that could be used in bioterrorism like pneumonic plague and smallpox. Source: Gainesville Sun, October 12, 2011

Gainesville

FDIC: Local bank has too many risky loans • Florida Citizens Bank, which is based in Gainesville, is under scrutiny from the Federal Deposit Insurance Commission. The FDIC says that the bank has too many risky loans and not enough assets to cover potential losses. The bank has chosen to dispute the FDIC’s claim. • Like many small, local banks, Florida Citizens lends largely to local construction and development projects. Source: Gainesville Sun, October 28, 2011 German firm plans area’s largest solar array • Sybac Solar, a German firm, has arranged for what would be the state’s largest private solar plant at six megawatts to be located in Gainesville. • The firm was brought to Gainesville by the GRU feed-in tariff. The tariff provides incentives for firms to provide solar power.

• The shortage is particularly difficult because the market for horses is currently poor right now, and so owners who cannot afford higher prices do not have the option to sell. Source: Gainesville Sun, November 20, 2011 Development slow to follow as UF’s East Campus grows • The University of Florida’s East Campus, home to its hurricane simulator, The Center for Autism and Related Disabilities, and an executive education program, is expanding to include a new data center. The data center is expected to be complete in November of 2012. • Despite growth in the campus, local businesses complain that they do not see increased business from employees at the complex. Source: Gainesville Sun, December 2, 2011

• Sybac currently has the largest private solar plant in the state, at two megawatts, also located in Gainesville. Source: Gainesville Sun, November 17, 2011 Drought wreaking havoc on local hay growers, buyers • Drought in the southeast and in Texas are causing a shortage of hay in both areas. Texas’s draught set in first, so much of the hay was sent to relieve the market, but the draughts in the southeast caused further shortage. • Prices for hay have increased and local supplies have been nearly halved. Local horse owners are switching to alternative types of feed.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Gainesville Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate 12.0% 10.0%

(percent)

9500.0

(Millions 2000 $)

8000.0 7500.0 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

125.0 120.0

2.5

8500.0

130.0

115.0

Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product

7000.0 6500.0

Gainesville Payroll Employment 135.0

1.5

9000.0

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Gainesville Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2011

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Gross Metro Product

Gainesville Real Personal Income 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Personal Income

Gainesville

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

December 2011 V2

Personal Income (Billions $)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

7.7 8.2 4.6 3.1 7.7 5.1 30.8 30.8 35.2 5.2

8.3 7.9 4.9 3.4 8.1 5.0 32.5 31.6 36.9 5.1

8.8 5.6 5.1 3.6 8.3 2.8 33.8 32.1 38.2 3.4

9.2 4.4 5.2 3.9 8.4 1.1 35.0 32.1 39.0 2.2

8.9 -2.8 5.2 3.7 8.2 -3.0 33.8 31.0 40.4 3.5

9.2 3.4 5.2 4.0 8.3 1.6 34.8 31.3 41.2 2.0

9.6 4.6 5.4 4.2 8.5 2.1 36.2 31.8 42.4 2.9

9.9 2.9 5.5 4.4 8.6 1.5 37.1 32.1 43.3 2.1

10.2 3.1 5.8 4.5 8.7 1.5 37.9 32.3 44.4 2.7

10.7 4.6 6.0 4.7 8.9 2.6 39.1 32.7 45.8 3.1

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

130.2 1.2 5.1 -0.1 125.0 1.3 6.2 6.3 18.9 3.5 2.7 13.8 2.4 2.0 -5.8 6.2 1.0 10.9 6.1 21.4 2.1 13.7 5.9 4.5 -3.0 3.7 5.9 37.6 -3.3

132.3 1.6 5.7 11.0 126.6 1.3 6.5 5.3 19.5 3.3 2.7 14.1 2.6 2.0 -2.9 6.5 4.0 11.1 1.4 21.4 0.1 13.4 -2.0 4.7 2.6 3.7 2.1 37.9 0.9

134.2 1.4 5.8 2.0 128.3 1.4 6.5 0.9 20.3 4.0 2.8 14.9 2.6 2.0 2.6 6.4 -0.5 10.6 -4.4 21.3 -0.6 14.0 4.1 4.8 3.7 3.8 3.1 38.6 1.8

133.5 -0.5 5.6 -4.3 127.9 -0.3 5.7 -13.2 19.7 -2.8 2.8 14.2 2.7 1.9 -7.0 6.2 -3.3 10.7 1.8 21.9 2.9 14.5 3.7 4.8 -0.5 4.0 5.2 38.5 -0.3

127.6 -4.4 4.7 -16.0 122.9 -3.9 4.6 -18.3 18.3 -7.0 2.6 13.3 2.4 1.6 -13.8 6.0 -3.6 10.3 -3.9 22.0 0.2 13.4 -7.2 4.5 -6.1 4.3 5.3 37.9 -1.6

126.7 -0.7 4.4 -5.2 122.3 -0.5 4.3 -7.5 17.9 -2.2 2.5 13.1 2.3 1.5 -6.7 6.1 1.2 10.3 -0.1 22.1 0.7 12.9 -3.9 4.4 -3.1 4.7 10.6 38.1 0.5

127.0 0.2 4.4 -0.7 122.5 0.2 4.1 -5.5 18.3 2.0 2.4 13.5 2.4 1.4 -4.5 5.9 -2.3 10.5 2.1 22.2 0.5 13.8 7.0 4.4 0.3 4.3 -9.3 37.6 -1.3

127.6 0.5 4.5 2.1 123.1 0.4 3.9 -4.4 18.6 1.6 2.4 13.8 2.5 1.4 -1.0 5.9 0.0 10.7 1.7 22.6 1.5 14.4 4.1 4.4 0.4 4.2 -2.2 37.0 -1.5

129.0 1.1 4.6 2.6 124.4 1.1 3.9 0.9 18.9 1.9 2.5 14.0 2.5 1.5 2.9 6.0 1.4 11.2 4.7 22.9 1.4 14.5 1.0 4.5 1.3 4.1 -2.6 36.9 -0.2

130.9 1.4 4.7 2.7 126.1 1.4 4.4 11.8 19.1 1.1 2.5 14.0 2.6 1.5 0.9 6.0 0.2 12.0 7.2 23.2 1.2 14.4 -0.8 4.5 0.4 4.0 -2.5 37.1 0.4

8399 250.4 1.9 130.0 2.7 2.9 2142 1466 676

8681 256.0 2.2 132.0 1.6 2.6 1919 1161 758

9018 259.5 1.4 135.7 2.8 2.9 1451 767 684

8981 261.9 0.9 139.0 2.4 4.3 1058 517 541

8735 263.6 0.6 138.1 -0.6 7.0 510 364 147

8871 264.6 0.4 139.0 0.7 8.3 511 404 107

8863 265.8 0.5 139.3 0.2 7.9 477 292 185

8909 267.1 0.5 139.4 0.1 7.8 522 296 226

9042 269.7 1.0 139.8 0.3 7.7 722 463 259

9303 273.1 1.3 140.4 0.5 7.3 1053 709 344

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Gainesville

Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL

December 2011 V2

9.7 3.5 5.4 4.3 8.5 1 36.4 31.8 42.6 2.2

9.8 2.7 5.5 4.3 8.5 0.8 36.8 32 42.9 2

9.9 2.4 5.5 4.3 8.6 1.1 37 32.1 43.1 1.8

9.9 3.1 5.6 4.4 8.6 2.1 37.2 32.2 43.4 2.1

10 3.3 5.6 4.4 8.6 2.1 37.4 32.3 43.7 2.5

10.1 2.8 5.7 4.4 8.7 1.5 37.6 32.3 44 2.6

10.2 3 5.7 4.4 8.7 1.4 37.8 32.3 44.3 2.7

10.3 3.2 5.8 4.5 8.7 1.5 38 32.3 44.6 2.8

10.4 3.4 5.9 4.5 8.8 1.5 38.2 32.4 44.9 2.9

10.5 4.2 5.9 4.6 8.9 2.3 38.6 32.6 45.3 3

10.6 4.4 6 4.6 8.9 2.4 38.9 32.7 45.6 3.1

10.7 4.7 6.1 4.7 9 2.7 39.3 32.8 46 3.1

10.9 5.1 6.1 4.8 9 2.9 39.6 32.9 46.3 3.1

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

127.1 0.7 4.4 -0.3 122.7 0.7 4 -2.4 18.3 3 2.4 13.6 2.4 1.4 -4.4 5.9 -4.6 10.6 0.9 22.3 0.5 14.1 9.4 4.4 -0.7 4.2 -6.4 37.4 -0.9

127.2 0.3 4.5 1.6 122.8 0.2 3.9 -2.4 18.4 1.5 2.4 13.7 2.4 1.4 -5.2 5.9 -2.2 10.6 0.3 22.4 1 14.2 6.3 4.4 -0.9 4.2 -3.3 37.2 -1.7

127.4 0.2 4.5 1.8 122.9 0.2 3.9 -4.8 18.5 0.8 2.4 13.7 2.4 1.4 0.8 5.9 -1.2 10.7 1.4 22.5 1 14.3 3.5 4.4 0.6 4.2 -1.1 37 -1.3

127.7 0.7 4.5 2.3 123.1 0.7 3.8 -5.4 18.6 2.1 2.4 13.8 2.5 1.4 0.3 5.9 1.6 10.7 2.7 22.7 2.3 14.4 3.8 4.4 0.8 4.2 -2 36.9 -1.8

128 0.7 4.5 2.6 123.4 0.6 3.8 -4.9 18.7 2 2.4 13.9 2.5 1.4 0.4 6 1.9 10.8 2.3 22.7 1.9 14.5 2.7 4.4 1.3 4.1 -2.4 36.9 -1.3

128.3 0.9 4.6 2.6 123.8 0.8 3.8 -3.2 18.8 1.9 2.5 13.9 2.5 1.4 0.6 6 2 11 3 22.8 1.7 14.5 2.2 4.5 1.6 4.1 -2.3 36.9 -0.9

128.8 1.1 4.6 2.5 124.2 1.1 3.9 -0.9 18.9 1.9 2.5 14 2.5 1.5 2.3 6 1.7 11.1 4.2 22.9 1.7 14.5 1.4 4.5 1.6 4.1 -2.5 36.9 -0.4

129.2 1.2 4.6 2.6 124.6 1.2 3.9 2.2 19 1.9 2.5 14 2.5 1.5 4.6 6 1.2 11.3 5.2 22.9 1.3 14.5 0.4 4.5 1.2 4.1 -2.7 36.9 0

129.7 1.3 4.7 2.6 125 1.3 4 5.6 19 1.7 2.5 14 2.6 1.5 4.2 6 0.8 11.5 6.2 23 1 14.5 0 4.5 0.8 4 -2.8 37 0.3

130.2 1.4 4.7 2.7 125.5 1.4 4.2 9 19.1 1.4 2.5 14 2.6 1.5 2.5 6 0.2 11.7 6.7 23.1 1.4 14.5 -0.4 4.5 0.5 4 -2.7 37 0.4

130.6 1.4 4.7 2.5 125.9 1.4 4.3 11.2 19.1 1.2 2.5 14 2.6 1.5 0.6 6 0.2 11.9 7.2 23.2 1.1 14.4 -0.8 4.5 0.6 4 -2.6 37.1 0.5

131 1.4 4.8 2.7 126.3 1.4 4.4 12.7 19.1 0.9 2.5 14 2.6 1.5 -0.3 6 0.3 12.1 7.5 23.2 1.1 14.4 -1 4.5 0.5 4 -2.4 37.1 0.4

131.6 1.5 4.8 2.9 126.8 1.4 4.6 14 19.2 1 2.6 14 2.6 1.5 0.9 6 0.2 12.3 7.3 23.3 1.3 14.3 -1.2 4.5 0.1 3.9 -2.3 37.1 0.3

8885.4 266.3 0.5 139.1 0.1 7.8 558 285 272

8890.1 266.6 0.5 139.1 -0.4 7.8 511 289 221

8893.1 266.9 0.4 139.4 -0.2 7.8 496 289 206

8911.8 267.3 0.5 139.6 0.4 7.8 516 296 220

8940 267.8 0.6 139.6 0.3 7.8 567 309 258

8957.3 268.5 0.7 139.5 0.3 7.8 631 360 271

9014.8 269.2 0.9 139.7 0.2 7.7 702 430 272

9066.5 270.1 1.1 139.9 0.2 7.7 734 500 233

9127.8 270.9 1.2 140.1 0.4 7.6 823 562 262

9194.8 271.8 1.2 140.1 0.4 7.5 904 616 288

9267 272.7 1.3 140.3 0.4 7.4 1004 680 324

9336.9 273.5 1.3 140.6 0.5 7.2 1112 748 363

9415 274.4 1.3 140.8 0.5 7 1193 792 402

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2011

J a c k so n v i l l e

Profiles

O u t l oo k S umm a r i e s

The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport.

The Jacksonville MSA is expected to see strong growth in most of the economic indicators, relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income will see an average growth rate of 4.7 percent, the third highest of the twelve MSAs researched. The per capita income level will be one of the highest at 36.1. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.6 percent, while average annual wage is expected to be at a level of 49.4. Population growth will be high at an average annual rate of 1.4 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 56,519.84 (Mill).

Quick Facts:

• Metro population estimate of 1,345,596 as of July 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Baker County population estimate of 27,115 as of 2010 Census (U.S. Census Bureau) • Clay County population estimate of 190,865 as of 2010 Census (U.S. Census Bureau) • Duval County population estimate of 864,263 as of 2010 Census (U.S. Census Bureau) • Nassau County population estimate of 73,314 as of 2010 Census (U.S. Census Bureau) • St. Johns County population estimate of 190,039 as of 2010 Census (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 695,538 in June 2011 for the metro area. (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 10.3% as of June 2011, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 71,620 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• • • • • •

Naval Air Station Jacksonville – 25,245 employees Duval County Public Schools – 13, 582 employees Mayport Naval Station – 12,677 employees City of Jacksonville – 8,828 employees Baptist Health Systems – 8,276 employees Blue Cross & Blue Shield of Florida – 6,000 employees • Mayo Clinic – 4,978 employees • Citibank – 4,836 employees • United Parcel Service – 4,100 employees • St. Vincent’s Medical Center – 4,000 employees Source: Duval County Public Schools

Employment growth is expected to be 1.9 percent annually. Unemployment will average 9.7 percent in the MSA.

The fastest growing sector in the Jacksonville MSA will be Professional & Business Services, which will see an average annual growth rate of 4.7 percent. Following that sector is the Leisure sector, with an annual growth rate of 3.1 percent, and then the Construction and Mining sector with a 2.5 percent growth rate. Other Services, State and Local Government and the Federal Government sectors will experience declines of -0.1, -0.1, and -3.2 percent respectively.

M e t r o N e w s S umm a r i e s Jacksonville will waive fees for construction for 1 year • The Jacksonville City Council has decided to waive its fair-share fees for one year, which generated about $3.7 million in revenue in 2010.

• The fair-share fees will be replaced by new mobility fees. The new fees are lower, but apply to a broader range of projects. It is unclear whether the city will gain or lose revenue from the fee change. • The fee reduction is expected to benefit smaller firms the most. Source: Florida Times-Union, October 12, 2011

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

J a c k so n v i l l e

Grants to United Way program will boost residents’ financial stability • Two grants worth $1 million total will help United Way’s Real$ense Prosperity Campaign which targets those under the poverty line for assistance in filing their taxes. • The hope is that the program will provide more stability for residents in United Way’s service area and in turn boost local economic activity. • The program has already helped residents receive $97.1 million in tax refunds and claim over $7 million in Earned Income Tax Credit refunds. Source: Florida Times-Union, November 17, 2011 Jags new owner Shahid Khan to keep team in town • Jacksonville Jaguar owner Wayne Weaver sold the team to businessman Shahid Khan for over $700 million. • The announcement of the sale came on the same day as the announcement that the team’s head coach had been fired. • The new owner will not live in Jacksonville fulltime, but plans to purchase a home in the area. • According to Forbes magazine, the Jacksonville team was the least valuable team in the NFL. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, November 29, 2011 St. Augustine moving forward with $6.7M sea wall • St. Augustine has received funding from a federal grant to cover $4.7 million of the cost of updating a deteriorating sea wall that was built from 1833 to 1844. The City of St. Augustine will pay the remaining $2 million cost.

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2011

• The street beyond the wall floods during hurricanes and exceptionally high tides, and local business and home owners have been pushing for the wall to protect their property. Source: Florida Times-Union, December 2, 2011 Work under way in revamp of Jacksonville Beach commercial district, businesses worried about impact on customers • Work has begun on $4.8 million in improvements to the downtown area in Jacksonville Beach. The work has been planned for five years, and includes brick-pavers, new asphalt, landscaping overhauls and new color schemes. • Local businesses worry that the construction will drive away foot traffic and hurt business. Mayor Fland Sharp replied that businesses have had ample warning and that the downtown area needs the improvements. Source: Florida Times-Union, December 3, 2011

J a c k so n v i l l e Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

0.8

65000.0

55000.0

6.0%

50000.0

4.0%

1.6

1.8

(Millions 2000 $)

45000.0 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate

40000.0

Jacksonville Payroll Employment (Thousands)

620.0 600.0 580.0 560.0 540.0 520.0

1.4

Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product

8.0%

640.0

1.2

60000.0

10.0%

2.0%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Jacksonville Payroll Employment

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Gross Metro Product

Jacksonville Real Personal Income 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

J a c k so n v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

December 2011 V2

Personal Income (Billions $)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

45.6 9.0 25.6 20.0 45.6 5.9 36.4 36.4 40.8 3.1

50.3 10.2 27.9 22.3 48.9 7.3 39.1 38.1 43.0 5.5

52.4 4.3 29.1 23.3 49.7 1.5 40.1 38.0 44.3 3.0

53.4 1.9 28.8 24.6 49.0 -1.3 40.3 37.0 44.8 1.1

50.7 -5.0 27.4 23.4 46.5 -5.2 37.9 34.8 45.2 0.9

52.6 3.7 27.9 24.7 47.3 1.9 38.9 35.0 46.5 2.9

55.1 4.7 28.8 26.3 48.4 2.3 40.2 35.4 47.7 2.5

57.3 4.1 30.0 27.3 49.7 2.7 41.4 35.9 48.7 2.1

59.8 4.3 31.4 28.4 51.0 2.6 42.5 36.3 50.0 2.7

63.2 5.8 33.1 30.1 52.9 3.8 44.2 37.0 51.4 2.9

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

604.0 4.4 33.6 0.9 570.4 4.6 45.4 11.0 132.8 3.7 27.8 73.9 31.1 11.9 2.4 59.3 1.5 88.1 6.8 71.3 4.9 60.4 7.4 26.8 1.6 17.4 -2.2 57.1 3.0

625.0 3.5 33.3 -0.8 591.7 3.7 50.1 10.3 136.9 3.1 29.9 74.9 32.2 11.1 -6.8 59.9 1.0 95.4 8.3 74.5 4.5 62.2 2.9 27.6 3.2 16.9 -2.6 57.1 0.0

633.8 1.4 32.6 -2.2 601.3 1.6 49.2 -1.7 139.2 1.7 30.2 76.5 32.5 10.2 -8.5 60.2 0.5 94.3 -1.2 77.9 4.5 65.9 6.0 28.3 2.3 17.0 0.6 59.2 3.6

621.2 -2.0 31.9 -2.0 589.3 -2.0 43.0 -12.7 136.3 -2.1 28.6 75.4 32.2 10.2 0.7 59.7 -0.7 88.0 -6.7 81.7 4.9 67.3 2.0 26.6 -5.9 17.1 0.6 59.5 0.6

586.3 -5.6 28.7 -10.0 557.6 -5.4 32.8 -23.7 126.9 -6.9 26.7 69.5 30.7 10.3 1.2 55.7 -6.7 83.1 -5.5 83.7 2.5 64.7 -3.9 24.0 -9.6 17.5 2.3 58.8 -1.1

581.0 -0.9 26.9 -6.4 554.1 -0.6 28.5 -13.2 124.1 -2.2 25.5 69.0 29.6 10.2 -1.3 55.1 -1.1 85.6 3.1 85.3 1.9 64.5 -0.3 23.8 -0.8 18.0 2.8 58.9 0.1

585.7 0.8 26.9 0.2 558.8 0.8 27.8 -2.3 125.0 0.7 25.5 69.9 29.6 9.8 -4.0 53.9 -2.2 88.0 2.7 87.1 2.1 67.8 5.2 23.3 -2.2 17.2 -4.7 58.8 -0.1

597.5 2.0 27.3 1.3 570.2 2.1 27.2 -2.2 127.8 2.3 25.7 72.0 30.5 9.9 0.7 53.9 0.0 92.3 4.9 89.6 2.9 71.3 5.2 23.4 0.4 16.6 -3.2 58.1 -1.3

610.2 2.1 27.8 1.9 582.4 2.1 27.7 1.8 131.3 2.7 26.5 73.4 31.7 10.2 3.1 54.9 1.8 96.2 4.2 91.5 2.1 72.6 1.8 23.6 1.0 16.2 -2.6 58.2 0.1

626.4 2.7 28.5 2.4 597.9 2.7 31.2 12.7 134.0 2.1 27.1 74.1 32.7 10.3 0.8 55.2 0.6 102.9 7.0 93.4 2.0 72.8 0.3 23.7 0.4 15.8 -2.4 58.6 0.7

52311 1253.7 2.3 630.4 3.8 3.7 23961 18818 5144

54831 1284.8 2.5 650.3 3.2 3.2 16723 12298 4425

55570 1308.2 1.8 669.9 3.0 3.7 10462 7518 2944

54331 1324.0 1.2 686.9 2.5 5.7 7060 5175 1885

53211 1336.9 1.0 683.4 -0.5 9.7 4924 3401 1523

54102 1352.0 1.1 687.9 0.7 11.2 3703 3552 151

54463 1368.2 1.2 688.2 0.0 10.2 3777 3420 358

55494 1384.8 1.2 694.4 0.9 9.9 4482 3457 1025

56916 1405.8 1.5 700.4 0.9 9.8 6435 4626 1810

59206 1430.9 1.8 709.2 1.3 9.1 9555 6890 2665

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2011

J a c k so n v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

December 2011 V2

55.7 4.2 29.2 26.5 48.7 1.6 40.5 35.4 47.9 2.1

56.5 4.1 29.5 27 49.2 2.1 41 35.7 48.2 1.9

57 3.6 29.8 27.2 49.5 2.3 41.2 35.8 48.5 1.8

57.6 4.2 30.1 27.5 49.8 3.1 41.5 35.9 48.8 2.1

58.2 4.4 30.4 27.7 50.2 3.2 41.8 36.1 49.1 2.5

58.7 3.9 30.8 27.9 50.4 2.6 42 36.1 49.5 2.6

59.4 4.2 31.2 28.2 50.8 2.6 42.4 36.2 49.8 2.6

60.1 4.4 31.6 28.5 51.2 2.7 42.7 36.3 50.1 2.8

60.8 4.5 32 28.8 51.5 2.7 43 36.4 50.5 2.8

61.8 5.3 32.5 29.4 52.1 3.4 43.5 36.7 50.9 2.9

62.7 5.5 32.9 29.8 52.6 3.5 43.9 36.9 51.2 2.9

63.7 6 33.4 30.3 53.2 3.9 44.4 37.1 51.6 2.9

64.7 6.4 33.8 30.9 53.7 4.2 44.9 37.3 52 3

601.6 1.9 27.5 2 574.1 1.9 26.9 -4 129.1 2.8 25.9 72.6 30.9 9.8 0.8 54.4 2.1 93.3 3.3 90.5 2.7 72.1 3.3 23.5 1.1 16.5 -2.6 58 -0.7

604.8 1.8 27.6 1.8 577.3 1.8 26.9 -2.5 130 2.7 26.2 73 31.2 9.9 0.8 54.7 2.4 94.3 2.8 90.9 2.4 72.4 2.8 23.6 1.2 16.4 -2.6 58.1 -0.3

608.3 2.1 27.8 1.8 580.6 2.1 27.3 0 130.9 2.7 26.4 73.3 31.5 10.1 2.1 54.8 2.1 95.5 3.8 91.5 2.4 72.6 2 23.6 1.2 16.3 -2.5 58.1 0

611.9 2.2 27.9 2 584 2.2 27.9 3.1 131.8 2.8 26.6 73.6 31.8 10.3 4.8 54.9 1.6 96.8 4.7 91.7 2 72.6 1.3 23.6 1 16.1 -2.6 58.2 0.4

615.7 2.4 28 2.1 587.7 2.4 28.7 6.6 132.5 2.6 26.7 73.8 32.1 10.3 4.7 55.1 1.2 98.3 5.4 92.1 1.7 72.8 1 23.7 0.7 16 -2.5 58.3 0.5

619.7 2.5 28.2 2.3 591.5 2.5 29.6 9.9 132.9 2.2 26.8 73.8 32.3 10.2 2.8 55.1 0.7 100 6.1 92.8 2.1 72.9 0.6 23.7 0.5 15.9 -2.6 58.4 0.6

624.3 2.6 28.4 2.3 595.9 2.6 30.6 12.2 133.6 2.1 27 74 32.6 10.2 0.7 55.2 0.7 102 6.9 93.3 2 72.8 0.4 23.7 0.6 15.8 -2.5 58.5 0.7

628.5 2.7 28.6 2.5 599.9 2.7 31.7 13.7 134.4 2 27.2 74.3 32.9 10.3 -0.6 55.3 0.6 104 7.4 93.5 1.9 72.7 0.2 23.8 0.5 15.8 -2.4 58.6 0.7

633 2.8 28.8 2.7 604.3 2.8 32.9 14.9 135.2 2.1 27.4 74.5 33.2 10.3 0.3 55.3 0.5 105.8 7.6 93.9 2 72.7 -0.2 23.7 0.1 15.7 -2.2 58.7 0.7

55146 55328.3 55591.4 55909.6 56163.3 56654.3 1378.2 1382.4 1386.8 1391.7 1397.2 1402.8 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 691.7 693.8 695.8 696.4 697.8 699.3 0.6 1 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 9.9 9.9 9.9 10 9.9 9.9 4195 4287 4570 4876 5393 6099 3563 3433 3389 3443 3825 4355 633 854 1182 1433 1568 1745

57150 1408.7 1.6 700.9 0.7 9.8 6749 4892 1856

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

590.4 1.5 26.9 -0.3 563.5 1.5 28 1.1 125.6 1.7 25.2 70.7 29.8 9.8 -3.7 53.3 -3.9 90.3 4.2 88.1 2.6 69.8 6.9 23.3 -2 16.9 -3.9 58.4 -1 54854.7 1374.2 1.2 690.4 -0.1 9.8 4267 3759 509

593.9 2.3 27.1 1 566.8 2.4 27.6 3.1 126.6 1.9 25.4 71.4 30.1 9.9 -1 53.5 -2.8 91.7 6.3 88.8 3.2 70.5 8 23.3 -0.5 16.8 -4.5 58.3 -1.5

596.1 1.8 27.3 0.4 568.8 1.9 27.3 -3 127.4 1.8 25.6 71.7 30.3 9.9 1.5 53.7 -0.8 92 6 89.3 2.7 71.1 5.4 23.3 0 16.7 -3.6 58.1 -1.8

598.6 2 27.3 1.7 571.2 2.1 27 -4.7 128.2 2.8 25.7 72.2 30.6 9.9 1.4 54.1 1.5 92.4 4.2 90 3 71.7 4.2 23.4 0.9 16.6 -2.1 58 -1.1

57698 58237.7 58879.7 59515.8 60190.1 1414.7 1420.7 1427.1 1434.2 1441.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 703.7 705.8 708.1 710.4 712.6 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 9.6 9.4 9.2 9 8.7 7500 8238 9119 10070 10790 5431 5943 6580 7283 7753 2070 2296 2539 2787 3038

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Lakeland

Profiles

O u t l oo k S umm a r i e s

The Lakeland MSA is comprised only of Polk County. It is located in the western-center of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus. It is home to a few attractions such as Fantasy of Flight and the upcoming Legoland Florida in Winter Haven. Also, the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians conduct spring training in Lakeland and Winter Haven, respectively.

The Lakeland MSA will show modest levels of growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 4.4 percent annually, while the per capita income level will be at 28.8. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.4 percent, and the average annual wage level is expected to be at 41.9, one of the lowest of the studied areas. Population growth is expected to average at 1.4 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 16,775.88 (Mill).

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 602,095 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 274,493 in May 2011 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 10.8% as of May 2011, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 29,674 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 8,063 employees • Lakeland Regional Medical Center – 4,540 employees

Employment growth is expected to be 1.2 percent annually. The unemployment rate for the metro will average 11.2 percent, the second highest of the twelve MSAs studied.

The Professional and Business sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 3.1 percent average annual growth. This is followed by the Trade, Transportation, and Utilities sector averaging a growth rate of 2.1 percent a year. Information, Other Services, State and Local Government, Leisure, and Federal Government sectors will experience a decline, with an annual growth rate of -0.1, -0.2, -0.5, -0.7 percent, and -8.3 percent respectively.

• City of Lakeland – 2,600 employees

M e t r o N e w s S umm a r i e s

• GEICO – 2,005 employees

Grants lure businesses to Dixieland area

• Watson Clinic – 1,600 employees • GC Services – 1,000 employees • Rooms To Go, Inc. – 900 employees • Summit Consulting Inc. – 654 employees • Saddle Creek Corporation – 625 employees • Ascent Healthcare Solutions – 600 employees Source: Lakeland Economic Development Council

• The Dixieland shopping area has seen a surge in new restaurants and businesses thanks to a $15,000 matching grant for improvements to existing buildings. Many business owners are spending above the $15,000 matched. • Three new restaurants will open in the area and three existing businesses took advantage of the grants to improve their buildings on South Florida Avenue. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, October 2, 2011

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2011

Lakeland

Tortilla maker Mission Foods expanding to Lakeland • Mission Foods, based in Irving, Texas, is one of the world’s largest manufacturers of tortilla products. The company plans to expand into Lakeland in 2012, hiring more than 130 employees over a span of about three years. • Average salaries for employees will be about $30,000. Lakeland and Polk County will support Mission with an estimated $130,000 worth of incentives. • Lakeland Economic Development Council expects Mission to occupy a 168,000-squarefoot warehouse located in Interstate Business Park, close to Pepperidge Farm. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, November 8, 2011 Legoland could help boost Polk tourism through bed tax • The creation of Legoland in Lakeland is expected to boost Polk County’s tourist development tax – often referred to as a bed tax because it is levied on short-term stays in the area - which funds its tourism promotion initiatives and provides economic incentives for attractions that locate in Polk County. • The county commissioners approved an amendment to laws governing the use of these funds which will allow the new revenue to be used to build and promote museums, which were previously excluded from funded projects. Local residents hope the addition of the museums will increase the presence of the arts in Polk County.

Turning down the request could have resulted in a loss of $517,000, a huge economic loss. • Stella Heath requested the contribution for the Ritz to keep the Theatre competitive. Jim Stafford, a nationally-renowned musician, will be attending the Ritz Theatre on December 15-18. Heath told the commissioners that other Central Florida competitors were enticing Stafford, citing the Theatre’s unfinished facilities. • The donation will allow the theater to purchase and install curtains, carpet, and 550 chairs and refurbish the ticket office. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, November 22, 2011 Lakeland Economic Development Council is visiting Silicon Valley • Lakeland’s Economic Development Council’s High Skill/High Wage Investor group visited San Francisco to search for possible ideas and projects to implement in the Lakeland area. • The group toured Stanford University, Facebook, and other hallmarks of the San Francisco area. The council is looking to focus on entrepreneur development, healthcare, education, and downtown redevelopment. • One of the members of the council, Southeastern University’s Brian Carroll, highlighted the way different industries and disciplines work together in order to create growth. He hopes that Lakeland can implement this strategy as well. Source: Lakeland Ledger, December 1, 2011

Source: The Lakeland Ledger, November 14, 2011 County gives Ritz Theatre renovation a boost • Polk County tourist tax funds will contribute $105,333 for capital improvements to refurbish the historic Ritz Theater in Winter Haven. Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Lakeland Lakeland MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.8

1.6

1.8

18000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

17000.0

14000.0 13000.0 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

200.0 190.0 180.0

1.4

15000.0

210.0

170.0

1.2

Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product

12000.0 11000.0

Lakeland Payroll Employment 220.0

16000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Lakeland Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2011

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Gross Metro Product

Lakeland Real Personal Income 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Personal Income

Lakeland

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

December 2011 V2

Personal Income (Billions $)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

16.3 10.6 7.4 8.9 16.3 7.5 29.7 29.7 35.6 4.0

17.7 8.2 7.9 9.7 17.2 5.3 31.0 30.2 37.3 4.7

18.7 5.6 8.1 10.6 17.7 2.8 31.8 30.2 38.0 1.9

19.3 3.6 8.1 11.3 17.7 0.3 32.5 29.8 38.5 1.3

18.2 -5.9 7.7 10.4 16.6 -6.1 30.3 27.8 38.9 1.1

18.8 3.3 7.7 11.0 16.9 1.5 31.1 28.0 39.6 1.9

19.6 4.5 7.9 11.7 17.2 2.0 32.2 28.3 40.6 2.4

20.4 3.8 8.1 12.3 17.6 2.4 33.1 28.7 41.3 1.8

21.1 3.8 8.4 12.7 18.0 2.2 33.8 28.8 42.3 2.5

22.3 5.6 8.9 13.4 18.7 3.5 35.0 29.3 43.5 2.8

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

207.1 6.5 18.3 0.4 188.8 7.1 16.2 12.6 47.6 8.4 10.3 25.3 12.1 2.3 3.0 11.1 1.8 33.2 8.2 25.6 6.1 16.5 7.8 9.0 11.9 1.4 4.5 26.0 2.0

211.7 2.2 17.9 -2.2 193.8 2.6 16.9 4.1 48.9 2.8 10.4 26.1 12.5 2.4 3.0 11.6 4.2 32.9 -0.8 26.6 4.2 17.0 2.7 9.5 5.5 1.4 -0.6 26.7 2.7

211.8 0.1 17.2 -3.6 194.5 0.4 15.8 -6.5 49.0 0.1 10.1 26.4 12.5 2.2 -7.8 11.8 2.4 32.0 -2.6 28.0 5.1 17.4 2.9 9.0 -5.3 1.4 1.3 27.9 4.3

208.4 -1.6 16.4 -5.2 192.0 -1.3 13.9 -12.2 47.8 -2.5 9.6 26.1 12.1 2.1 -3.4 12.2 2.8 31.3 -2.4 29.1 4.0 17.4 -0.5 8.6 -4.1 1.4 0.1 28.3 1.7

197.5 -5.2 14.8 -9.3 182.6 -4.9 11.7 -15.8 44.9 -6.0 9.1 24.2 11.6 1.9 -9.3 11.8 -3.4 29.0 -7.2 28.7 -1.4 16.5 -4.7 8.3 -4.0 1.4 -1.3 28.5 0.5

193.9 -1.8 14.2 -4.5 179.8 -1.6 10.6 -8.7 44.2 -1.6 8.7 24.0 11.5 1.8 -5.3 11.5 -2.5 28.7 -1.2 28.6 -0.4 16.2 -1.9 8.3 -0.1 1.6 14.7 28.3 -0.5

192.8 -0.6 14.0 -1.5 178.9 -0.5 10.2 -4.6 44.9 1.6 8.5 24.9 11.6 1.7 -5.4 11.3 -1.5 28.5 -0.6 29.2 2.2 15.9 -2.0 8.1 -1.8 1.2 -25.6 27.9 -1.6

194.6 0.9 14.1 1.3 180.5 0.9 9.7 -4.7 46.0 2.5 8.5 26.0 11.8 1.7 0.7 11.4 1.0 29.1 2.2 29.8 2.0 16.1 1.1 8.0 -1.0 1.1 -2.7 27.5 -1.6

198.2 1.8 14.4 2.0 183.8 1.8 9.8 1.3 47.2 2.4 8.7 26.4 12.3 1.8 3.2 11.6 1.5 30.3 4.2 30.3 1.7 16.2 0.6 8.1 0.7 1.1 -2.4 27.5 0.0

203.2 2.5 14.8 2.5 188.5 2.5 11.0 12.3 48.1 1.9 8.9 26.4 12.8 1.8 1.2 11.6 0.2 32.4 6.7 30.7 1.5 16.1 -0.7 8.1 0.2 1.1 -2.4 27.6 0.5

15970 550.1 3.7 256.1 3.5 4.0 12784 11789 995

16666 570.3 3.7 261.2 2.0 3.6 9464 8308 1156

16824 586.5 2.8 266.2 1.9 4.4 4378 4030 348

16508 595.0 1.4 272.9 2.5 6.6 3227 2365 862

16108 599.3 0.7 274.0 0.4 11.0 1203 1190 13

16280 603.6 0.7 275.5 0.6 12.5 1223 1166 57

16239 608.5 0.8 272.5 -1.1 11.6 1235 1219 17

16457 615.9 1.2 271.3 -0.4 11.3 1744 1666 78

16861 626.1 1.7 272.0 0.2 11.3 2801 2558 243

17547 637.1 1.8 274.2 0.8 10.5 4302 3844 458

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Lakeland

Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL

December 2011 V2

19.8 3.9 7.9 11.9 17.3 1.3 32.4 28.3 40.8 2.1

20.1 3.4 8 12.1 17.5 1.5 32.8 28.5 41 1.8

20.3 3.3 8.1 12.2 17.6 2.1 33 28.6 41.2 1.5

20.5 4.1 8.1 12.3 17.7 3 33.2 28.7 41.4 1.8

20.6 4.2 8.2 12.4 17.8 2.9 33.3 28.8 41.7 2.2

20.8 3.6 8.3 12.5 17.9 2.3 33.4 28.7 41.9 2.3

21 3.7 8.4 12.6 18 2.1 33.6 28.8 42.2 2.4

21.2 3.9 8.5 12.8 18.1 2.2 33.9 28.8 42.5 2.5

21.5 4.1 8.6 12.9 18.2 2.2 34.1 28.9 42.8 2.6

21.8 5 8.7 13.1 18.4 3.1 34.5 29.1 43.1 2.7

22.1 5.3 8.8 13.3 18.6 3.3 34.8 29.2 43.4 2.8

22.5 5.7 9 13.5 18.7 3.6 35.2 29.4 43.7 2.8

22.8 6.1 9.1 13.7 18.9 3.9 35.5 29.5 44 2.8

195.6 1.3 14.2 1.9 181.4 1.2 9.5 -4.6 46.5 2.4 8.5 26.2 12 1.7 0.8 11.5 2 29.4 2.2 30 2.2 16.2 2.1 8.1 0.8 1.1 -2.1 27.4 -0.9

196.5 1.4 14.3 1.8 182.2 1.4 9.5 -2.9 46.7 2.4 8.6 26.3 12.1 1.7 0.9 11.6 2 29.7 2.6 30.1 2 16.2 1.5 8.1 0.9 1.1 -2.2 27.4 -0.6

197.7 1.8 14.4 1.8 183.3 1.7 9.7 -0.5 47 2.4 8.7 26.3 12.2 1.8 2.4 11.6 1.8 30.1 3.8 30.3 2 16.2 0.8 8.1 0.9 1.1 -2.4 27.4 -0.2

198.7 2 14.5 2.1 184.3 2 9.9 2.6 47.3 2.5 8.7 26.4 12.3 1.8 4.8 11.6 1.2 30.5 4.8 30.4 1.5 16.2 0 8.1 0.6 1.1 -2.6 27.5 0.2

199.9 2.2 14.5 2.2 185.4 2.2 10.1 6.1 47.6 2.4 8.8 26.5 12.5 1.8 4.6 11.6 0.8 31 5.6 30.4 1.2 16.2 0 8.1 0.4 1.1 -2.7 27.5 0.4

201.3 2.4 14.6 2.4 186.6 2.4 10.5 9.5 47.8 2.2 8.8 26.4 12.6 1.8 3 11.6 0.2 31.5 6.1 30.6 1.6 16.2 -0.2 8.1 0.2 1.1 -2.5 27.5 0.5

202.6 2.5 14.7 2.3 187.9 2.5 10.8 11.7 48 2 8.9 26.4 12.7 1.8 1.1 11.6 0.2 32.1 6.7 30.7 1.4 16.1 -0.6 8.1 0.3 1.1 -2.4 27.6 0.6

203.8 2.6 14.8 2.6 189 2.6 11.2 13.3 48.2 1.8 9 26.5 12.8 1.8 -0.1 11.6 0.3 32.7 7 30.8 1.3 16 -0.8 8.1 0.3 1.1 -2.3 27.6 0.5

205.2 2.7 14.9 2.8 190.3 2.6 11.6 14.6 48.4 1.8 9 26.5 12.9 1.8 0.9 11.6 0.3 33.1 6.8 30.9 1.5 16 -1 8.1 -0.1 1.1 -2.2 27.6 0.4

16305.2 16360.3 16409.1 16484.6 16572.2 16637.7 16784.2 16928.4 17094.8 17267.7 17450.8 17635.6 610.6 612.5 614.7 616.9 619.3 622 624.8 627.4 630.1 632.9 635.8 638.5 0.9 1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 270.7 270.9 271.4 271.6 271.3 271.2 271.7 272.1 272.9 273.5 273.8 274.4 -2.1 -1.7 -0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.2 11 10.9 10.7 10.4 1569 1618 1688 1772 1898 2217 2650 2978 3359 3705 4108 4551 1523 1585 1632 1682 1764 2043 2430 2713 3046 3341 3687 4058 46 33 56 90 134 173 220 266 313 364 421 493

17832 641.2 1.8 275 0.7 10.1 4844 4288 557

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

193.1 0 14 -0.2 179.2 0 10 -3.3 45.4 3.3 8.4 25.6 11.6 1.7 -5.4 11.3 -1.1 28.7 -0.9 29.4 2.7 15.8 -3.3 8 -3.2 1.2 -8.6 27.7 -1.8

193.7 0.2 14 1.1 179.7 0.2 9.8 -4 45.6 2.9 8.4 25.8 11.7 1.7 0.3 11.3 -0.2 29 1.4 29.5 1.6 16 -2.6 8 -3.7 1.2 -8.7 27.6 -2.2

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2011

194.2 0.8 14.1 0.8 180.1 0.8 9.7 -5.1 45.9 2.3 8.4 25.9 11.8 1.7 0.8 11.4 0.8 29 2.4 29.7 1.6 16.1 1.3 8 -1.7 1.1 2.5 27.5 -1.7

194.9 1.4 14.2 1.5 180.7 1.4 9.6 -5.1 46.2 2.3 8.5 26 11.9 1.7 0.9 11.4 1.6 29.1 2.6 29.9 2.6 16.2 3.9 8 0.7 1.1 -1.8 27.4 -1.4

M i a mi – Fo r t L a ud e r d a l e – P omp a n o B e a ch

Profiles

O u t l oo k S umm a r i e s

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, this area is home to many sports teams, such as the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins, and the Florida Panthers. Other major businesses also reside in this metro, including the Miami Seaquarium, the University of Miami, and Florida International University.

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach area is expected to show strong growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 4.2 percent annually, and the per capita income level, at 38.9, is the second highest in the areas studied. Average annual wage growth will be at 2.5 percent. The average annual wage level is expected to be 52, the highest of the studied MSAs. Miami is expected to average a population growth of 1.3 percent each year. The area has the highest Gross Metro Product of the twelve MSAs studied at a level of 249,998.96 (Mill).

QUICK FACTS: • Metro area population estimate of 5,564,635 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,496,435 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Broward County population estimate of 1,748,066 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,320,134 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 2,929,399 in May 2011 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 11.4% as of May 2011, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 332,875 unemployed people for the metro area. (Florida Research and Economic Database) TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • Miami-Dade County Schools – 44,132 employees • Broward County Public Schools – 39,714 employees • Federal Government – 36,600 employees • Florida State Government – 33,500 employees • Miami-Dade County – 32,000 employees • University of Miami – 12,765 employees • Publix Super Markets – 11,760 employees • Baptist Health South Florida – 11,615 employees • Jackson Health System – 10,500 employees • American Airlines – 9,000 employees • Miami-Dade College – 6,500 employees

Employment is expected to grow at an average rate of 1.6 percent each year, while unemployment is expected to be 10.3 percent.

Miami’s fastest growing sector is expected to be the Professional and Business Services sector at 4.0 percent annually, followed by Leisure and Education and Health Services at 2.6 and 2 percent. Information, State and Local Government, and the Federal Government sectors are expected to decline with annual growth rates of -0.1, -0.3, and -4.1 percent.

M e t r o N e w s S umm a r i e s Developer Jorge M. Perez gives $35 million naming donation to Miami Art Museum • The New Miami Art Museum will open in two years and be renamed after the generous donor, Jorge M. Perez. • Perez will donate $35 million in cash and art from his Latin American collection. • Jorge M. Perez is a billionaire condo developer that suffered in the recent housing downturn. His company lost approximately $1 billion, but he is still willing to make his donation. • The donation will be paid in the next ten years and makes the fundraising total $167 million. Source: Miami Herald, December 2, 2011

Sources: The Beacon Council, Agency for Workforce Innovation, and Enterprise Florida Institute for Economic Competitiveness

M i a mi – Fo r t L a ud e r d a l e – P omp a n o B e a ch

West Palm Beach medical plaza sold for $7M • CV Medical, a Pompano Beach company, bought the West Palm Beach medical center from Boca Raton based Royale WPB Properties for $7 million.

• This will be the first county-run homeless center. It is expected to open in March and serve sixty selected homeless people at a time. • The center will provide shelter, job training, and medical services to the homeless people.

• Royale WPB Properties bought the property last August for $5 million.

Source: Sun-Sentinel, November 30, 2011

• The purchase price is 42 percent higher than what it was a year earlier.

Some condo complexes cut back-up generators

• The medical center provides easy access to medical care for residents and continues to be in high demand for physicians. Source: South Florida Business Journal, November 28, 2011 New Dreyfoos gift for classroom technology • Palm Beach County business leader, Alexander W. Dreyfoos, has decided to pledge $150,000 to the Dreyfoos School of Arts, a public high school in Palm Beach. • Dreyfoos made a large contribution of $1 million in 1997 as well. He is now making another contribution in order to increase science and technology at the school. • He wants to rename the school Dreyfoos School of Arts and Sciences to emphasize the importance of sciences in schools, and he believes this donation will help steer the school in the right direction. Source: WPTV News, December 1, 2011 Neighbors cautiously optimistic about spring opening of homeless center • West Palm Beach county officials first needed to convince residents of a neighborhood in order to open a homeless shelter in the area. Initially, the residents were not thrilled about having a homeless center so close to their homes, but have now warmed up to the idea.

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2011

• Most high rise condominium buildings in South Florida have many back-up generators in order to ensure safety in the storm prone area. • Because of the foreclosure rates and the stressed housing market, many of the Condo associations are cutting back on maintenance on the generators. • OK Generators, a company based in Fort Lauderdale, says that around fifty condo clients have canceled their maintenance contracts because of financial troubles. • Many building codes require condos to have back-up generators installed and regularly maintained, but the expensive burden has deterred many condominium buildings from keeping up the generators. Source: Sun Sentinel, October 11, 2011

M i a mi â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Fo r t L a ud e r d a l e â&#x20AC;&#x201C; P omp a n o B e a ch Miami - Fort Lauderdale - Pompano Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

1.2

1.4

1.6

280000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

240000.0 220000.0 200000.0 180000.0 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

2400.0 2300.0 2200.0 2100.0 2000.0

Miami Real Gross Metro Product

160000.0

Miami Payroll Employment 2500.0

0.8

260000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Miami Payroll Employment

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Gross Metro Product

Miami Real Personal Income 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

M i a mi – Fo r t L a ud e r d a l e – P omp a n o B e a ch

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

December 2011 V2

Personal Income (Billions $)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

210.6 8.1 103.3 107.3 210.6 5.0 38.9 38.9 43.9 4.4

228.8 8.7 110.2 118.7 222.8 5.8 42.2 41.0 45.7 4.1

238.3 4.1 114.3 124.0 225.9 1.4 43.9 41.6 47.0 2.8

245.2 2.9 112.9 132.3 225.1 -0.3 44.9 41.2 47.7 1.5

229.1 -6.6 106.6 122.5 209.8 -6.8 41.5 38.0 48.1 0.7

236.3 3.2 107.7 128.5 212.6 1.3 42.2 38.0 49.0 2.0

247.0 4.6 111.4 135.6 217.1 2.1 43.6 38.3 50.2 2.4

255.4 3.4 115.4 140.0 221.4 2.0 44.6 38.7 51.2 1.9

264.5 3.5 120.4 144.1 225.7 1.9 45.6 38.9 52.5 2.6

278.4 5.3 126.6 151.8 233.0 3.2 47.3 39.6 54.0 2.9

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2337.1 3.8 101.2 0.4 2236.0 3.9 147.4 12.1 529.5 2.6 141.2 294.2 94.1 55.2 -1.1 178.2 4.9 358.7 7.7 301.5 2.8 247.6 3.1 99.0 1.3 34.5 1.1 284.3 1.6

2394.7 2.5 100.6 -0.5 2294.0 2.6 164.3 11.5 542.9 2.5 144.7 303.6 94.6 52.5 -4.9 183.5 3.0 370.3 3.2 308.1 2.2 251.7 1.7 99.3 0.3 34.1 -1.3 287.2 1.0

2416.8 0.9 98.6 -2.0 2318.2 1.1 161.1 -2.0 549.1 1.1 147.6 306.2 95.3 51.2 -2.4 181.4 -1.2 372.5 0.6 318.9 3.5 258.0 2.5 100.8 1.5 34.0 -0.2 291.2 1.4

2352.8 -2.7 92.5 -6.2 2260.3 -2.5 134.9 -16.2 540.1 -1.6 144.4 300.9 94.8 49.7 -2.9 170.8 -5.8 355.6 -4.5 326.3 2.3 257.0 -0.4 100.9 0.1 33.9 -0.4 291.2 0.0

2204.3 -6.3 79.6 -14.0 2124.7 -6.0 102.4 -24.1 504.4 -6.6 134.6 281.1 88.6 44.9 -9.6 155.1 -9.2 327.8 -7.8 330.5 1.3 247.5 -3.7 93.4 -7.4 34.1 0.7 284.5 -2.3

2183.6 -0.9 74.4 -6.6 2109.3 -0.7 88.0 -14.1 501.7 -0.5 132.1 282.1 87.6 43.2 -4.0 151.4 -2.4 329.9 0.6 336.2 1.7 249.7 0.9 93.8 0.4 36.6 7.4 278.7 -2.0

2205.1 1.0 72.5 -2.5 2132.6 1.1 83.8 -4.8 505.7 0.8 131.2 285.1 89.6 41.7 -3.5 151.3 -0.1 337.3 2.2 343.8 2.3 262.0 4.9 94.1 0.3 33.4 -8.8 279.6 0.3

2240.9 1.6 73.0 0.7 2167.9 1.7 80.4 -4.1 517.2 2.3 132.9 293.3 92.3 41.8 0.3 151.7 0.2 348.8 3.4 352.3 2.5 273.9 4.5 94.2 0.1 32.7 -2.1 275.1 -1.6

2279.4 1.7 74.1 1.6 2205.3 1.7 82.7 2.8 528.8 2.3 136.7 297.6 95.6 42.9 2.8 152.9 0.8 361.9 3.7 358.3 1.7 277.5 1.3 94.6 0.4 31.8 -2.7 274.0 -0.4

2330.0 2.2 75.5 1.9 2254.5 2.2 94.0 13.7 537.3 1.6 139.8 298.7 98.7 43.0 0.2 152.7 -0.1 386.1 6.7 364.1 1.6 276.7 -0.3 94.6 0.0 31.0 -2.6 275.0 0.3

240014 5410.0 1.2 2673.7 2.4 4.2 42149 22742 19407

248214 5427.3 0.3 2746.9 2.7 3.6 32034 15832 16202

252027 5429.3 0.0 2809.7 2.3 4.1 14688 7636 7052

245258 5462.0 0.6 2851.1 1.5 6.0 7434 3536 3898

235915 5516.5 1.0 2830.9 -0.7 10.0 3479 2218 1261

239434 5592.9 1.4 2876.5 1.6 11.5 5053 3263 1789

241621 5663.9 1.3 2906.3 1.0 11.0 7857 4310 3547

245841 5727.7 1.1 2920.7 0.5 10.5 10419 5626 4793

251559 5800.5 1.3 2935.4 0.5 10.3 15707 8947 6760

260973 5880.9 1.4 2949.0 0.5 9.4 24254 14237 10017

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2011

M i a mi – Fo r t L a ud e r d a l e – P omp a n o B e a ch

Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

December 2011 V2

249.3 3.9 112.7 136.6 217.7 1.3 43.8 38.3 50.5 2.1

252.4 3.3 113.9 138.5 219.7 1.4 44.2 38.5 50.8 1.8

254.3 2.9 114.9 139.4 221 1.7 44.5 38.6 51 1.6

256.4 3.6 115.8 140.5 221.9 2.5 44.7 38.7 51.3 1.9

258.6 3.7 117 141.5 223.1 2.5 44.9 38.8 51.6 2.3

260.5 3.2 118.3 142.1 223.8 1.9 45.1 38.8 52 2.4

263.1 3.5 119.6 143.5 225.1 1.9 45.4 38.9 52.3 2.5

265.7 3.7 121 144.7 226.3 2 45.7 38.9 52.7 2.6

268.5 3.8 122.5 146 227.5 2 46.1 39 53 2.7

272.7 4.7 124.1 148.6 230 2.8 46.6 39.3 53.5 2.8

276.2 5 125.7 150.5 231.7 2.9 47 39.5 53.8 2.9

280.4 5.5 127.4 153 234 3.4 47.6 39.7 54.2 2.9

284.5 6 129.1 155.4 236.2 3.8 48.1 39.9 54.6 2.9

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2219.2 1.7 72.1 -1.4 2147.1 1.8 82.4 -3.2 509 1.3 130.6 288.9 90.4 41.3 -3.8 150.6 -0.3 342.2 3.9 347.8 3 268.5 6.4 94.1 -0.3 33.2 -3.5 277.8 -0.8

2230.1 1.8 72.5 -0.4 2157.6 1.8 81.2 -4.4 512.8 2 131.6 291.3 91.2 41.8 -1.4 150.9 -0.6 346.5 4.1 349.8 2.6 270.9 6.7 94.2 0.2 33 -3 276.5 -1.6

2236.4 1.5 72.9 -0.2 2163.5 1.6 80.6 -4.7 515.7 2.2 132.4 292.4 91.8 42 0.6 151.2 -0.6 347.6 3 351.2 3 273.1 4.5 94 -0.3 32.8 -0.3 275.3 -1.7

2243.9 1.7 73.1 1.5 2170.9 1.7 80 -4.1 518.6 2.4 133.2 294 92.7 41.6 1.2 151.9 0.8 349.2 3.7 353.3 2.3 275.1 4.1 94.2 0.2 32.5 -2.6 274.3 -1.8

2253.2 1.5 73.4 1.8 2179.9 1.5 79.8 -3.1 521.5 2.5 134.3 295.4 93.4 41.6 0.7 152.5 1.2 352 2.9 355.1 2.1 276.4 2.9 94.4 0.4 32.3 -2.7 274.2 -1.3

2263.3 1.5 73.6 1.5 2189.7 1.5 80.1 -1.4 524.7 2.3 135.4 296.6 94.3 42.1 0.6 153 1.4 355.3 2.5 356.3 1.9 277.4 2.4 94.6 0.5 32.1 -2.7 274.1 -0.9

2273.7 1.7 74 1.5 2199.8 1.7 81.5 1.1 527.4 2.3 136.3 297.2 95.1 42.9 2.2 152.9 1.1 359.2 3.3 358 1.9 277.5 1.6 94.5 0.6 31.9 -2.7 273.9 -0.5

2284.7 1.8 74.3 1.7 2210.4 1.8 83.3 4.2 530.7 2.3 137.3 298.3 96 43.5 4.5 152.8 0.6 363.8 4.2 358.9 1.6 277.3 0.8 94.5 0.3 31.7 -2.7 274 -0.1

2296 1.9 74.6 1.7 2221.4 1.9 85.8 7.5 532.6 2.1 137.9 298.4 96.8 43.3 4 152.7 0.2 369.3 4.9 359.9 1.3 277.7 0.5 94.5 0.1 31.4 -2.8 274.2 0

2308.4 2 74.9 1.8 2233.5 2 88.8 10.8 533.8 1.7 138.5 298 97.5 42.9 2 152.6 -0.3 375.2 5.6 362.3 1.7 277.6 0.1 94.6 0 31.2 -2.7 274.5 0.2

2322.9 2.2 75.3 1.8 2247.6 2.2 92.1 13 536.1 1.6 139.3 298.3 98.4 42.9 0 152.6 -0.2 382.5 6.5 364 1.7 276.9 -0.2 94.6 0.1 31 -2.6 274.8 0.3

2336.7 2.3 75.7 1.9 2261 2.3 95.6 14.7 538.4 1.5 140.2 299 99.1 43 -1.1 152.7 0 389.8 7.2 364.5 1.6 276.3 -0.4 94.7 0.2 30.9 -2.5 275.1 0.4

2352.1 2.4 76.2 2.1 2275.9 2.5 99.6 16.1 541 1.6 141.2 299.7 99.9 43.3 0 152.9 0.1 397 7.5 365.6 1.6 275.9 -0.6 94.4 -0.2 30.7 -2.3 275.5 0.5

243285 5688.5 1.2 2904.7 0.1 10.4 9751 5397 4354

244494 5703.5 1.2 2910.4 0.2 10.5 9527 5441 4086

245162 5719.2 1.1 2918.5 0 10.5 9847 5431 4417

246198 5735.5 1.1 2926.4 1 10.5 10644 5608 5036

247513 5752.7 1.1 2927.5 0.8 10.5 11657 6023 5634

248535 5771.7 1.2 2930.6 0.7 10.5 13046 7073 5973

250517 5790.7 1.3 2933.7 0.5 10.4 14892 8348 6544

252501 5810 1.3 2936.6 0.3 10.2 16410 9588 6821

254685 5829.6 1.3 2940.7 0.5 10.1 18481 10779 7702

256905 5849.6 1.3 2943.5 0.4 9.8 20569 11996 8572

259581 5870.3 1.4 2946.6 0.4 9.6 23042 13495 9546

262255 5891.1 1.4 2950.9 0.5 9.3 25626 15125 10501

265153 5912.6 1.4 2955.1 0.5 9 27779 16331 11448

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

N a p l e s – M a r co I s l a n d

Profiles

O u t l oo k S umm a r i e s

The Naples–Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier County only. Located on the southwest coast of Florida, the area is notable for numerous recreation and leisure activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the “Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida.”

The Naples–Marco Island MSA is expected to show strong growth in the economic indicators. The metro area will show a personal income growth of 5.0 percent, the second highest of the 12 studied MSAs. Per capita income level, which is expected to be 53.7, is the highest of the studied metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). Average annual wage will be at a level of 50.2. The average annual wage is expected to grow at a rate of 2.9 percent, the highest of the twelve MSAs. Population growth will average 1.8 percent, one of the highest in the studied areas and the Gross Metro Product level will be 14,450.59 (Mill).

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 321,520 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 138,631 in June 2011 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 11.3% as of June 2011, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 15,662 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). Top Area Employers: • Collier County Public Schools – 5,365 employees • Naples Community Hospital – 3,007 employees • Publix Super Market, Inc – 2,214 employees • Wal-Mart – 1,547 employees

Employment growth is expected to average 1.6 percent each year. The metro will see an unemployment rate of 10.5 percent.

The Professional and Business Services sector represents Naples’ fastest growing sector, growing at a rate of 4.7 percent each year. The Education and Health Services sector follows with a growth rate of 2.3 percent. The Information and Federal Government sectors are expected to decline this quarter at -0.6 percent and -2.4 percent respectively.

• Marriott Corporation – 743 employees

M e t r o N e w s S umm a r i e s

• County Sheriff’s Department – 838 employees

Commission to consider 2,200-acre home, commercial project east of Naples.

• Winn-Dixie Stores, Inc – 760 employees • Ritz Carlton, Naples – 758 employees • Fifth Third Bank – 733 employees • Naples Grande Resort – 605 employees Source: Enterprise Florida, Inc., 2011

• Naples may be seeing the development of 1,500 homes, hotel rooms, outlet malls, medical plazas, a nursing center and a public school. Hacienda Lakes is looking to develop its 2,200-plus acre parcel. • Hacienda must submit two more petitions: a growth-management plan; and a development of regional impact, an application that is required for projects that have more than 2,000 units. • The National Association of Home Builders estimated 324 jobs will be created solely for the construction of 100 single-family homes. Source: Naples News, October 9, 2011

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2011

N a p l e s – M a r co I s l a n d

Collier commissioners look to wash hands of money-losing housing program • Collier County has taken part in a few housing programs, including some associated with the Housing, Human and Veterans Services Department. Officials are not happy with the amount of money spent, though grants do cover some of the cost. • The Neighborhood Stabilization Program does not allow counties to make a profit because of the grant’s requirements. But the county has spent $505,278.53, spurring commissioners to leave all housing programs behind. • After an audit, completed by an employee at the Collier Clerk of Courts, revealed that some of the work was incomplete, yet paid in full by the county and the housing department, commissioners asked that no more houses be bought or rehabilitated. Source: Naples News, October 29, 2011 City won’t try to reroute U.S. 41 • Last May, City Council began talks with the Florida Department of Transportation concerning reassignment of U.S. 41. The objective was to create a new road to reduce congestion between Coastland Center mall and Fifth Avenue South. • City Council would like to make the road wellsuited for people in the community. Assistant City Manager Reinke would like to see the city gain control of the road through FDOT’s design for inhabitable community dealings. Then, Naples government and the FDOT can come up with designs that are suited for the “mixed use community, like downtown Naples.” Source: Naples News, November 2, 2011 Manatee Middle program gives students the business skills to succeed • Education leaders, including a professor from Harvard, are encouraging young students to acquire business skills at ages as young as ten. They suggest that teachers start preparing students for real-life careers.

• Manatee Middle School started a program called “Future Business Leaders Club” for seventh-and eighth-grade students. Their most recent field trip was to Fifth Third Bank, where they could ask bankers questions. • The group will be going to different retailers to see how they run a business. The Club plans on learning management theories and the degrees necessary to succeed in different businesses. Source: Naples News, November 13, 2011 Beach access near Moray Bay condos closed again for county improvement project • A stretch of sand along Vanderbilt Beach is closed for a county improvement project. A dozen parking spaces have been replaced with a turnaround area and a handicap accessible drop-off. There will also be a new walkway to the beach and new restrooms. • Tourist development tax revenue is footing $750,000 of the bill, as well as Moray Bay Condominiums supplying $500,000. Public parking will not be as accessible, but there will be spots within a mile of this stretch of beach. Source: Naples News, November 30, 2011 Edison State College Collier Campus opens Student Services building • Edison State College has just completed a new, 23,700 sq-ft. Student Services building. The aesthetically pleasing, energy-efficient building is supposed to allow students to go there for all of their needs. • The new building will have workplaces for administrators and students. There will be a “community room” as well. • The same campus is also looking forward to the completion of the Allen & Marla Weiss Health Sciences Hall, which is to be open in early 2012. Source: Naples News, December 2, 2011

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

N a p l e s â&#x20AC;&#x201C; M a r co I s l a n d Naples - Marco Island MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.8

1.6

1.8

18000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

12000.0 10000.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

120.0 110.0 100.0 90.0

1.4

14000.0

130.0

80.0

1.2

Naples Real Gross Metro Product

8000.0

Naples Payroll Employment 140.0

16000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Naples Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2011

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Real Personal Income 21.0% 18.0% 15.0% 12.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% -3.0% -6.0% -9.0% -12.0%

(percent change year ago)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Personal Income

N a p l e s â&#x20AC;&#x201C; M a r co I s l a n d

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

December 2011 V2

Personal Income (Billions $)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

16.8 10.6 5.6 11.2 16.8 7.4 54.5 54.5 44.2 5.1

19.1 14.0 6.0 13.1 18.6 11.0 61.2 59.6 44.9 1.8

19.9 4.2 6.1 13.8 18.9 1.5 63.4 60.1 46.8 4.2

20.2 1.1 5.6 14.6 18.5 -2.1 63.6 58.4 46.0 -1.7

18.3 -9.3 5.1 13.2 16.7 -9.5 57.3 52.5 45.5 -1.1

18.7 2.5 5.2 13.6 16.9 0.7 58.0 52.2 46.7 2.6

19.6 4.6 5.3 14.3 17.2 2.1 59.8 52.6 48.2 3.3

20.5 4.5 5.5 15.0 17.7 3.1 61.7 53.5 49.3 2.2

21.4 4.4 5.8 15.6 18.2 2.8 63.2 53.9 50.7 2.9

22.7 6.4 6.2 16.6 19.0 4.3 65.6 54.9 52.3 3.2

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

125.9 6.5 3.2 3.0 122.7 6.6 20.3 21.3 24.3 5.7 3.4 19.1 1.8 1.8 0.0 7.7 9.4 13.1 -7.9 15.0 7.7 21.8 7.3 5.7 5.2 0.7 0.1 12.3 2.9

132.7 5.4 3.3 3.7 129.4 5.4 23.9 17.7 24.5 1.0 3.2 19.5 1.7 1.9 3.2 8.2 5.7 13.6 4.1 15.9 5.8 22.2 1.8 5.8 2.0 0.7 0.1 12.7 3.4

129.6 -2.3 3.3 -1.3 126.3 -2.3 19.7 -17.7 24.2 -1.3 3.4 19.2 1.6 1.8 -5.0 8.2 0.1 12.6 -7.7 16.7 5.3 23.3 4.8 6.0 3.1 0.7 0.0 13.3 4.5

121.0 -6.6 3.0 -9.7 118.1 -6.5 14.4 -26.6 23.0 -5.0 3.3 18.2 1.5 1.8 -1.0 7.3 -10.4 12.0 -4.6 16.9 0.8 22.8 -2.0 6.0 0.4 0.7 -3.7 13.2 -0.3

110.8 -8.5 2.6 -11.2 108.1 -8.4 10.4 -27.8 21.2 -7.7 3.1 16.7 1.5 1.6 -8.9 6.6 -9.8 11.5 -4.2 16.6 -1.3 21.0 -8.2 5.7 -5.2 0.7 1.2 12.9 -2.8

109.7 -1.0 2.4 -7.2 107.3 -0.8 9.0 -13.4 21.2 -0.1 3.0 16.7 1.5 1.6 -3.0 6.6 -0.3 11.9 3.6 17.0 2.3 20.9 -0.4 5.6 -0.9 0.8 14.4 12.7 -1.0

108.6 -1.0 2.4 -2.3 106.2 -1.0 8.9 -1.5 20.6 -2.8 2.7 16.3 1.5 1.5 -6.7 6.4 -2.7 12.3 3.0 17.1 0.7 20.4 -2.2 5.6 -0.5 0.7 -9.9 12.8 0.3

110.2 1.5 2.4 1.3 107.8 1.5 8.8 -1.2 21.0 2.1 2.7 16.9 1.6 1.4 -1.5 6.5 1.6 12.6 2.4 17.6 2.8 20.9 2.4 5.7 2.2 0.7 2.5 12.6 -1.6

113.2 2.7 2.5 2.4 110.8 2.7 8.8 0.8 21.7 3.4 2.8 17.4 1.7 1.5 3.8 6.7 2.8 13.3 5.7 18.1 2.9 21.4 2.1 5.9 2.5 0.7 -1.3 12.7 1.1

116.8 3.2 2.5 3.2 114.3 3.2 9.7 10.0 22.3 2.8 2.9 17.7 1.7 1.5 1.9 6.8 1.3 14.3 7.6 18.6 2.7 21.4 0.4 6.0 1.8 0.7 -1.1 13.0 1.8

15037 307.7 3.4 144.0 4.4 3.4 5917 4072 1845

15960 312.6 1.6 150.7 4.6 3.0 4477 3067 1410

15652 314.7 0.7 150.8 0.0 4.2 1986 1166 821

14642 316.8 0.7 148.1 -1.8 6.8 967 669 298

13752 319.1 0.7 143.7 -2.9 10.8 835 633 202

13979 322.9 1.2 144.6 0.6 12.0 1198 802 396

13920 327.3 1.4 141.8 -2.0 10.8 1354 954 400

14134 331.8 1.4 144.9 2.2 10.4 1642 969 674

14546 337.9 1.9 150.2 3.6 10.6 2463 1440 1023

15202 346.3 2.5 154.5 2.9 10.1 3676 2222 1454

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

N a p l e s â&#x20AC;&#x201C; M a r co I s l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

December 2011 V2

19.8 4.4 5.3 14.5 17.3 1.8 60.2 52.6 48.5 2.2

20.1 3.8 5.4 14.7 17.5 1.8 60.9 53 48.8 2

20.3 3.9 5.4 14.9 17.7 2.6 61.4 53.4 49.1 1.9

20.6 5.1 5.5 15.1 17.8 4 61.9 53.6 49.4 2.3

20.8 5.1 5.6 15.2 18 3.8 62.4 53.8 49.8 2.6

21 4.3 5.6 15.3 18 2.9 62.5 53.7 50.1 2.7

21.2 4.3 5.7 15.5 18.1 2.7 62.9 53.8 50.5 2.8

21.5 4.4 5.8 15.7 18.3 2.7 63.4 54 50.9 3

21.8 4.6 5.9 15.8 18.4 2.7 63.9 54.1 51.3 3

22.2 5.9 6 16.2 18.7 3.9 64.7 54.6 51.7 3.1

22.5 6.1 6.1 16.4 18.9 4.1 65.2 54.7 52.1 3.2

22.9 6.6 6.2 16.7 19.1 4.5 65.9 55 52.6 3.2

23.3 7 6.3 17 19.3 4.8 66.6 55.2 53 3.2

111.3 2.6 2.4 2.2 108.8 2.6 8.7 -0.6 21.3 3.3 2.7 17.1 1.6 1.4 1.3 6.6 3.3 12.7 3.8 17.8 3 21.2 3.9 5.8 2.5 0.7 -1 12.6 0

112 2.6 2.4 2.1 109.5 2.6 8.7 -0.8 21.4 3.2 2.8 17.2 1.6 1.5 1.4 6.6 3.3 12.9 4.2 17.9 2.9 21.3 3.3 5.8 2.7 0.7 -1 12.6 0.4

112.8 2.7 2.5 2.2 110.4 2.7 8.7 -0.5 21.6 3.3 2.8 17.3 1.6 1.5 3.3 6.7 3.2 13.2 5.4 18.1 3.2 21.3 2.5 5.8 2.7 0.7 -1.2 12.7 0.9

113.6 2.7 2.5 2.6 111.2 2.7 8.9 0.6 21.8 3.5 2.8 17.4 1.7 1.5 5.6 6.7 2.6 13.4 6.3 18.2 2.9 21.4 1.6 5.9 2.4 0.7 -1.4 12.8 1.4

114.5 2.9 2.5 2.8 112 2.9 9.1 3.9 22 3.4 2.8 17.5 1.7 1.5 5.1 6.7 2 13.6 7.1 18.3 2.5 21.4 1.2 5.9 2.1 0.7 -1.5 12.8 1.6

115.5 3.1 2.5 3.1 112.9 3.1 9.3 7.1 22.1 3.1 2.9 17.6 1.7 1.5 3.5 6.7 1.2 13.9 7.6 18.4 2.9 21.5 0.9 5.9 1.9 0.7 -1.3 12.9 1.8

116.4 3.2 2.5 3 113.8 3.2 9.6 9.3 22.2 2.8 2.9 17.7 1.7 1.5 1.6 6.7 1.2 14.2 7.8 18.6 2.6 21.4 0.5 6 2 0.7 -1.2 12.9 1.9

117.3 3.2 2.6 3.2 114.7 3.2 9.9 11.1 22.4 2.6 2.9 17.8 1.7 1.5 0.7 6.8 1.4 14.4 7.8 18.6 2.5 21.4 0.3 6 1.9 0.7 -1 13 1.8

118.3 3.3 2.6 3.3 115.7 3.3 10.2 12.5 22.6 2.7 2.9 17.9 1.8 1.5 2 6.8 1.4 14.6 7.3 18.8 2.7 21.4 0.1 6 1.5 0.7 -0.9 13 1.8

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

108.5 -0.5 2.4 -0.5 106.1 -0.5 8.8 -1.6 20.6 -1 2.6 16.5 1.5 1.4 -5.7 6.4 -1.5 12.3 -0.1 17.3 2 20.4 -1.1 5.6 0.8 0.7 1.7 12.6 -1.3

109.2 -0.5 2.4 1.5 106.8 -0.5 8.8 -2.4 20.7 0.1 2.6 16.7 1.6 1.4 -4.7 6.4 -1.3 12.4 0.6 17.4 2.1 20.6 -1.6 5.7 1.6 0.7 2.4 12.6 -3.1

13939.5 14017.1 329 330.1 1.4 1.4 141.3 142.7 -2.2 -0.3 10.1 10.2 1590 1525 1008 981 582 544

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2011

109.8 1.1 2.4 -0.1 107.4 1.1 8.8 -2.5 20.9 1.6 2.7 16.8 1.6 1.4 -3.6 6.5 1.5 12.5 1.2 17.5 2.8 20.8 2.5 5.7 2.7 0.7 9.9 12.6 -2.6

110.6 2.9 2.4 1.8 108.2 2.9 8.8 0.8 21.1 3.4 2.7 16.9 1.6 1.4 1.2 6.5 3.1 12.6 4.2 17.7 3.2 21 4.9 5.7 2.2 0.7 -0.7 12.6 -0.6

14083 14173.5 14264.1 331.1 332.2 333.6 1.3 1.3 1.4 144.3 145.7 147 1.4 3.9 4 10.3 10.5 10.6 1587 1639 1819 960 950 984 627 690 835

14333 14475.1 14610.1 14764.7 14929.1 335.2 337 338.8 340.7 342.8 1.5 1.8 2 2.1 2.3 148.3 149.5 150.7 152 153.2 4 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.3 10.7 10.6 10.5 10.5 10.4 2075 2367 2549 2860 3145 1147 1343 1533 1736 1913 929 1024 1016 1124 1232

15107 15288.6 15483.8 345.1 347.4 350 2.4 2.5 2.7 154 154.9 155.9 3 2.8 2.5 10.2 10 9.7 3503 3873 4183 2124 2351 2501 1379 1521 1682

Ocala

Profiles

O u t l oo k S umm a r i e s

Comprised of Marion County only, the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area in the center of the state. The second-largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area.

The Ocala MSA is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 5.1 percent annually, the highest of the twelve metro areas studied. Per capita income level is the second lowest of the twelve metro areas at 29. Relative to the other metro areas, Ocala will have one of the lowest average annual wage levels of the MSAs, at 39.1. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.6 percent. The metro has an expected annual population growth of 1.3 percent. The Gross Metro Product is expected to be 6,945.46 (Mill), the lowest in the studied areas.

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 331,298 as of July 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 133,035 in June 2011 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 12.6% as of June 2011, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 16,774 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database)

Employment growth is expected to average a rate of 1.8 percent annually. The unemployment rate is estimated to be 12.4 percent, the highest of the researched metropolitan areas.

• Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – 2,370 employees

The Professional and Business Services sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in Ocala, averaging an annual growth rate of 4.7 percent. The Education and Health Services sector follows with a growth rate of 3.2 percent. The third ranked is the Trade, Transportation, and Utilities sector at 2.4 percent. The State and Local Government and Federal Government sectors are expected to show negative growth at -0.2 percent and -7.2 percent respectively.

• Marion County Board of County Commissioners – 1,500 employees

M e t r o N e w s S umm a r i e s

• Ocala Regional Medical Center and West Marion Community Hospital – 1,300

Coca-Cola plans to shift 85 jobs away from Ocala

Top Area Employers: • Marion County Public Schools – 5,875 employees • State of Florida – 2,700 employees • Munroe Regional Medical Center – 2,481 employees

• Publix Supermarkets, Inc. – 1,275 employees • AT&T – 1,000 employees • City of Ocala – 942 employees • Marion County Sheriff’s Office – 885 employees Source: Marion County Public Schools

• Coca-Cola is planning to close the Coca-Cola Refreshments Ocala Distribution Center in the first quarter of 2012. The plan will remove 85 jobs from Ocala, but Coca-Cola says that it will offer employees jobs at nearby locations like Gainesville and Orlando. • Ocala Mayor Kent Guinn will attempt to convince Coca-Cola to stay, although the company insists that the plan will move forward.

Source: Ocala Star Banner, November 7, 2011

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Ocala

County secures $100K road grant • Marion County secured a grant from the Department of Economic Opportunity on behalf of Pro Poly of America, a local firm. • Pro Poly sought to improve the road leading to its facility so that it can expand business. The firm plans to expand its factory by 20,000 square feet and hire up to fifteen additional workers in the expansion. Source: Ocala Star Banner, November 7, 2011 HealthSouth construction is underway • Health South Corp, an Alabama-based company, has begun construction of its new rehabilitation hospital in Ocala. • The facility will be the first of its kind in Ocala, and will have forty private rooms. Health South beat out local healthcare firm Ocala Health System for the contract. • Construction of the hospital will create about 200 jobs, and when it is finished, the hospital expects to employ about eighty people fulltime. Source: Ocala Star Banner, November 8, 2011 Ocala leases building to chamber for business incubator • The Ocala City Council will begin leasing an old power plant to the Ocala/Marion Chamber of Commerce to build a business incubator. • The city is paying for many of the repairs to the building and is making some improvements to the property. • The business incubator will provide workshops and seminars as well as office space for new businesses. Source: Ocala Star Banner, November 16, 2011

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2011

County tests pay-for-performance program • Marion County will implement a limited payfor-performance program in December that will base raises and continued employment on employees’ performance. • The program will be tested in just four departments at first to allow time to see how it affects performance. • Increases in pay initiated by the County Administrator were previously permitted, but were suspended last year for economic reasons. Source: Ocala Star Banner, December 3, 2011

Ocala Ocala MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

(percent)

0.6

0.8

1.4

1.6

1.8

7500.0

(Millions 2000 $)

7000.0 6500.0 6000.0 5500.0 5000.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

105.0 100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 80.0

1.2

Ocala Real Gross Metro Product

4500.0

Ocala Payroll Employment 110.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Ocala Payroll Employment

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Gross Metro Product

Ocala Real Personal Income 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Ocala

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

December 2011 V2

Personal Income (Billions $)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

8.6 11.9 3.3 5.3 8.6 8.6 28.2 28.2 32.2 4.0

9.6 11.7 3.7 5.9 9.4 8.7 30.3 29.5 34.5 7.3

10.2 5.6 3.8 6.4 9.6 2.8 31.2 29.5 34.9 1.2

10.4 2.0 3.7 6.7 9.5 -1.2 31.4 28.8 35.9 2.8

9.8 -5.4 3.4 6.4 9.0 -5.6 29.6 27.1 36.1 0.6

10.2 3.7 3.3 6.8 9.1 1.9 30.7 27.6 36.7 1.7

10.7 5.3 3.4 7.3 9.4 2.8 32.2 28.3 37.6 2.5

11.2 4.6 3.6 7.6 9.7 3.2 33.5 29.0 38.4 2.1

11.7 4.3 3.7 7.9 10.0 2.7 34.3 29.3 39.5 2.8

12.4 6.1 4.0 8.4 10.4 4.0 35.4 29.6 40.7 3.1

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

101.5 5.9 9.9 3.6 91.6 6.2 10.7 8.8 22.9 5.7 3.9 16.3 2.7 2.2 -2.3 5.4 11.2 8.9 9.5 12.0 7.7 9.2 6.3 4.0 5.2 0.7 0.1 15.4 2.3

106.2 4.6 9.9 -0.6 96.3 5.1 12.6 17.1 23.4 1.9 4.2 16.4 2.7 2.1 -1.9 5.8 6.1 9.3 4.1 12.7 5.8 9.7 4.8 4.1 1.9 0.7 0.1 16.0 3.6

106.8 0.6 9.6 -3.0 97.2 1.0 11.6 -7.6 23.8 1.7 4.4 16.4 2.9 2.0 -7.2 6.0 3.6 8.5 -8.3 13.3 4.8 10.6 9.5 4.3 4.6 0.7 0.1 16.5 2.9

101.9 -4.6 8.3 -13.9 93.6 -3.7 9.6 -17.0 22.7 -4.5 4.1 15.7 2.9 1.9 -3.0 5.9 -0.6 8.1 -4.6 13.5 1.5 10.4 -2.1 3.9 -8.6 0.7 2.3 16.8 2.1

93.2 -8.6 6.7 -19.3 86.5 -7.6 7.3 -24.3 20.5 -9.6 3.5 14.6 2.5 1.7 -11.9 5.1 -13.3 7.7 -5.0 12.9 -4.3 10.0 -3.8 3.6 -7.6 0.7 1.1 16.9 0.4

90.5 -2.9 6.4 -3.4 84.0 -2.8 6.3 -14.0 19.9 -3.1 3.3 14.2 2.3 1.5 -10.4 4.1 -20.0 7.5 -3.2 13.4 3.9 9.9 -1.2 3.6 0.5 0.9 26.2 16.9 0.4

90.2 -0.3 6.4 -0.8 83.9 -0.2 6.0 -4.5 20.2 1.5 3.3 14.4 2.5 1.4 -4.6 4.1 -1.1 7.6 0.8 13.9 3.5 9.9 -0.1 3.6 -1.0 0.7 -25.0 16.6 -2.1

92.0 2.0 6.4 0.4 85.6 2.1 5.8 -3.9 20.8 2.9 3.3 14.9 2.6 1.4 0.0 4.2 2.7 7.8 3.9 14.4 3.8 10.3 4.9 3.7 2.1 0.7 -0.5 16.5 -0.5

94.2 2.4 6.5 1.7 87.7 2.5 5.9 2.5 21.4 2.9 3.4 15.3 2.7 1.5 3.4 4.3 2.2 8.3 5.7 14.8 2.9 10.5 1.9 3.8 2.0 0.7 -1.7 16.6 0.6

97.0 2.9 6.6 2.1 90.4 3.0 6.7 13.5 21.9 2.2 3.5 15.5 2.8 1.5 1.4 4.3 0.9 9.0 8.3 15.2 2.4 10.6 0.3 3.8 1.3 0.7 -1.6 16.8 1.2

6878 305.2 4.2 126.8 6.7 3.7 7266 6664 602

7294 317.3 4.0 132.6 4.6 3.4 7183 6885 298

7414 325.9 2.7 136.2 2.7 4.4 3163 2820 343

7169 329.9 1.2 138.1 1.3 7.7 1211 1190 22

6718 330.9 0.3 135.6 -1.8 12.4 409 391 18

6680 331.4 0.1 135.0 -0.4 13.8 493 491 2

6684 332.2 0.2 133.2 -1.3 12.6 397 395 2

6810 334.4 0.7 135.9 2.0 12.5 779 760 19

6991 340.4 1.8 139.1 2.3 12.7 1768 1675 93

7296 349.4 2.7 140.9 1.3 11.9 2818 2670 148

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2011

Ocala

Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL

December 2011 V2

10.8 4.9 3.5 7.4 9.5 2.3 32.6 28.5 37.9 2.2

11 4.4 3.5 7.5 9.6 2.4 33 28.8 38.1 2

11.1 4.3 3.5 7.6 9.7 3 33.3 29 38.3 1.8

11.3 4.8 3.6 7.7 9.7 3.7 33.6 29.1 38.5 2.1

11.4 4.9 3.6 7.7 9.8 3.6 33.8 29.2 38.8 2.5

11.5 4.2 3.7 7.8 9.8 2.8 34 29.2 39.1 2.6

11.6 4.2 3.7 7.9 9.9 2.6 34.2 29.2 39.4 2.7

11.7 4.3 3.8 8 10 2.6 34.4 29.3 39.7 2.9

11.9 4.5 3.8 8.1 10.1 2.7 34.6 29.3 40 3

12.1 5.5 3.9 8.2 10.2 3.6 35 29.5 40.3 3.1

12.3 5.8 3.9 8.3 10.3 3.8 35.3 29.6 40.6 3.1

12.5 6.3 4 8.5 10.4 4.2 35.6 29.7 40.9 3.1

12.7 6.7 4.1 8.6 10.5 4.5 35.9 29.8 41.2 3.1

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

90.9 1.5 6.3 -0.7 84.6 1.7 5.9 -3.3 20.4 3.5 3.3 14.6 2.5 1.4 -5.2 4.1 -0.6 7.7 2.1 14.1 4.4 10.1 4.5 3.7 0.4 0.7 -8 16.5 -0.9

91.4 1.7 6.4 -1 85 1.9 5.8 -3.8 20.5 2.8 3.3 14.8 2.6 1.4 -3.8 4.1 1.4 7.8 4.2 14.2 4 10.2 5.3 3.7 2 0.7 -5 16.5 -0.7

91.8 2.2 6.4 -0.6 85.4 2.4 5.8 -4.8 20.7 2.9 3.3 14.9 2.6 1.4 2 4.1 4.2 7.8 4.6 14.4 4.2 10.3 5.8 3.7 2.8 0.7 6.5 16.5 -0.5

92.2 2 6.4 1.4 85.8 2 5.7 -3.8 20.8 3 3.3 15 2.6 1.4 1.1 4.2 2.4 7.9 3.5 14.5 3.7 10.4 4.7 3.7 1.7 0.7 -1.2 16.5 -0.7

92.7 2 6.4 1.7 86.3 2 5.7 -3.4 21 3 3.4 15.1 2.6 1.4 0.9 4.2 2.7 8 3.2 14.6 3.5 10.5 3.7 3.7 2 0.7 -1.5 16.5 -0.2

93.2 2.1 6.5 1.6 86.8 2.1 5.7 -1.7 21.1 2.9 3.4 15.2 2.7 1.4 1 4.2 2.8 8.1 3.9 14.7 3.2 10.5 3.1 3.7 2.2 0.7 -1.5 16.5 0.1

93.9 2.3 6.5 1.6 87.4 2.4 5.8 0.7 21.3 2.9 3.4 15.3 2.7 1.5 2.5 4.3 2.6 8.2 5.2 14.8 3.3 10.5 2.3 3.8 2.3 0.7 -1.7 16.6 0.5

94.5 2.5 6.5 1.8 88 2.6 6 3.8 21.5 3 3.5 15.4 2.7 1.5 5 4.3 2 8.4 6.2 14.9 2.7 10.5 1.4 3.8 1.9 0.7 -1.8 16.6 0.9

95.2 2.7 6.6 1.8 88.7 2.7 6.1 7.3 21.6 2.8 3.5 15.4 2.8 1.5 4.8 4.3 1.5 8.5 7.3 14.9 2.3 10.6 1 3.8 1.6 0.7 -1.9 16.7 1

95.9 2.9 6.6 2 89.3 2.9 6.3 10.7 21.7 2.5 3.5 15.4 2.8 1.5 3.3 4.3 0.8 8.7 7.8 15.1 2.6 10.6 0.8 3.8 1.3 0.7 -1.8 16.7 1.1

96.6 2.9 6.6 1.9 90 3 6.6 12.9 21.8 2.3 3.5 15.5 2.8 1.5 1.3 4.3 0.8 8.9 8.3 15.2 2.3 10.6 0.4 3.8 1.4 0.7 -1.6 16.8 1.3

97.3 2.9 6.7 2.1 90.7 3 6.8 14.5 21.9 2 3.5 15.6 2.8 1.5 0 4.3 1 9.1 8.6 15.2 2.2 10.6 0.2 3.8 1.4 0.7 -1.5 16.8 1.2

98.1 3.1 6.7 2.3 91.4 3.1 7.1 15.8 22.1 2.1 3.6 15.6 2.9 1.5 1 4.3 0.9 9.2 8.4 15.3 2.4 10.6 -0.1 3.8 1 0.7 -1.4 16.9 1.2

6738.5 332.5 0.3 133.9 -0.5 12.2 512 503 8

6765.3 333.1 0.3 134.6 1.1 12.3 606 603 3

6788.9 333.8 0.5 135.5 2.2 12.4 709 699 10

6822.5 334.7 0.8 136.4 2.5 12.6 827 805 23

6863.7 336 1 137.1 2.4 12.7 973 932 41

6894.3 337.6 1.4 138.2 2.6 12.8 1256 1195 61

6958.5 339.3 1.7 138.8 2.4 12.7 1632 1546 86

7020.8 341.3 2 139.4 2.2 12.6 1968 1862 106

7092 343.4 2.2 139.9 2 12.5 2215 2097 118

7168.5 345.7 2.4 140.2 1.5 12.3 2434 2307 127

7251.3 348 2.6 140.7 1.3 12 2694 2552 142

7336.8 350.7 2.8 141.2 1.3 11.7 2981 2825 156

7428.5 353.3 2.9 141.7 1.3 11.4 3161 2995 166

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O r l a n do – Kissimm e e

Profiles

O u t l oo k S umm a r i e s

The Orlando–Kissimmee MSA is comprised of Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole counties. Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World and numerous other Disney enterprises, Universal Studios, and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic, the Orlando Predators arena football team, and Atlanta Braves spring training at Disney’s Wide World of Sports. The University of Central Florida, the nation’s second-largest university, and many other places of higher education also reside in the MSA.

The Orlando–Kissimmee area is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow at a rate of 4.7 percent annually, the third highest of the studied MSAs. The per capita income level is expected to be 31.6. Average annual wage growth will be 2.1 percent, and average annual wage will be at a level of 44.6. The Orlando MSA will see population growth of 1.9 percent, the highest of the studied MSAs. Gross Metro Product is expected to average at 98,631.32 (Mill). Employment growth is forecasted to average 2.0 percent annually, the highest of the twelve MSAs. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 9.6 percent. In the Orlando area, the fastest growing sector is expected to be the Professional and Business Services sector with an average annual growth rate of 3.7 percent. This will be followed by the Leisure sector, with an average annual growth rate of 2.8 percent. The only sector that will experience negative growth is the Federal Government sector, with an average annual rate of growth of –3.1 percent.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 2,134,411 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Lake County population estimate of 297,052 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Orange County population estimate of 1,145,956 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Osceola County population estimate of 268,685 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Seminole County population estimate of 422,718 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 1,125,342 in June of 2011. • An unemployment rate of 10.4% as of June 2011, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 117,244 unemployed people in the Orlando MSA (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Walt Disney Co. – 62,200 employees • Florida Hospital (Adventist Health System) – 21,483 employees • Orange County Public Schools – 21,349 employees • Publix Super Markets Inc. – 17,521 employees • Universal Orlando – 14,300 employees • Orlando Health – 14,000 employees • Lockheed Martin Corporation – 13,000 employees • University of Central Florida – 10,346 employees • Orange County Government – 7,818 employees • Sea World Parks and Entertainment – 7,000 Source: Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission and University of Central Florida’s Institutional Knowledge Management, 2011 64

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2011

M e t r o N e w s S umm a r i e s 10 local hotels, including Disney’s, on Conde Nast Traveler list • Among the best 150 mainland U.S. resorts are: Disney’s Grand Floridian Resort & Spa at number 66; Disney’s Wilderness Lodge (No. 73); Disney’s Animal Kingdom Lodge (No. 90); and Disney’s BoardWalk Inn (No. 119). • At Universal, both Loews resorts made the list. Also, the Ritz-Carlton Orlando, Grande Lakes came in at number 126 and the Hyatt Regency Grand Cypress made number 142. • Thirty-three of Florida’s finest hotels made the list. Source: Orlando Business Journal, October 28, 2011

O r l a n do – Kissimm e e

UCF gets $1.6M to fund rural health study • National Institutes of Health awarded the University of Central Florida with $1.6 million to study several states including Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee. • The study will assess health care provided by Rural Health Clinics. Two of the investigators believe that these federally recognized clinics in underserved regions could benefit from the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010. Source: Orlando Business Journal, October 31, 2011 Sea World Orlando announces expansion, including new attractions • An “Antarctic experience” is set to open in 2013, although few details have been released. This blockbuster experience is said to be the “biggest capital spending spree in park history,” according to park officials. • There are plenty of other attractions heading to Sea World including a sea turtle education center that includes a 3-D experience in a 195-person theatre. Also, there will be a manatee rehabilitation exhibit; Freshwater Oasis which offers dolphin encounters and the opportunity to swim with otters; and a new penguin exhibit.

• The contractor of “The Steel House” project is also planning a trail that leads directly to one of the SunRail commuter rails. The project will be complete by February 2013. Source: Orlando Business Journal, November 28, 2011 Stage set for lots of jobs in arts, entertainment • Since the Orlando Magic’s inaugural season in the new Amway center, Orlando has set itself up for growth. The home of this NBA team cost $380 million. • There will also be another $100M entertainment structure across from Amway. This phase will generate 1,000 impermanent construction jobs and 300 stable jobs in restaurant, entertainment, and retail industries. • Orlando is anticipating the completion of a new performing arts center. The complex is valued at $368 million. This is expected to generate hundreds of jobs as well. Source: Orlando Business Journal, December 2, 2011

Source: Tampa Bay Times, November 9, 2011 Atlanta developer starts work on $40M downtown apartments • Pollack Shores broke ground in late November. The $40 million complex will have 326 units, a parking garage with 500 spaces, interior courtyards, a swimming pool, fountain, sculpture garden, gym, and business center. There will also be a fourth floor lounge that looks toward downtown.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O r l a n do â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Kissimm e e Orlando - Kissimmee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Providing Private Service Providing Mining and Logging Construction Manufacturing Durable Goods Non-Durable Goods Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

0.8

110000.0

80000.0

4.0%

70000.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate

60000.0

Orlando Payroll Employment (Thousands)

1.8

(Millions 2000 $)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Gross Metro Product

Orlando Real Personal Income 12.0%

(percent change year ago)

9.0%

1050.0

6.0%

1000.0

3.0%

950.0

0.0% -3.0%

900.0

1.6

Orlando Real Gross Metro Product

6.0%

850.0

1.4

90000.0

8.0%

1100.0

1.2

100000.0

10.0%

2.0%

-6.0%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 OrlandoPayroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2011

-9.0%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Personal Income

O r l a n do â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Kissimm e e

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

December 2011 V2

Personal Income (Billions $)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

64.0 10.2 40.2 23.8 64.0 7.0 32.6 32.6 39.1 4.6

69.9 9.3 43.5 26.5 68.1 6.4 34.6 33.7 40.7 4.0

73.4 5.0 45.5 27.9 69.6 2.2 35.6 33.8 41.6 2.2

75.5 2.8 45.3 30.1 69.3 -0.4 36.1 33.1 42.1 1.2

71.5 -5.3 42.3 29.1 65.5 -5.5 33.8 30.9 41.9 -0.5

73.8 3.3 42.7 31.1 66.4 1.4 34.4 30.9 42.5 1.3

77.3 4.7 44.0 33.3 67.9 2.3 35.5 31.2 43.2 1.8

80.3 3.9 45.6 34.7 69.6 2.5 36.3 31.5 44.0 1.7

83.8 4.4 47.7 36.1 71.5 2.7 37.1 31.7 45.0 2.3

88.7 5.9 50.3 38.4 74.2 3.8 38.3 32.1 46.1 2.6

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1022.8 5.7 46.0 2.6 976.8 5.9 84.7 13.8 193.4 6.1 44.8 120.5 28.0 24.8 3.9 65.0 7.0 161.5 8.1 102.5 5.0 184.2 2.4 50.0 4.9 11.9 5.2 99.0 3.5

1063.9 4.0 45.0 -2.2 1018.9 4.3 91.2 7.7 198.8 2.8 46.2 122.3 30.3 25.8 4.2 68.1 4.8 173.1 7.2 107.5 4.9 186.8 1.5 53.4 6.8 11.4 -3.8 102.7 3.8

1090.7 2.5 44.6 -0.8 1046.1 2.7 85.4 -6.4 204.0 2.6 47.2 123.7 33.0 26.8 3.7 68.9 1.1 181.3 4.7 112.7 4.8 193.6 3.6 55.8 4.5 11.5 0.4 106.2 3.4

1072.7 -1.7 42.8 -4.1 1029.9 -1.6 72.7 -14.8 200.8 -1.6 45.8 121.9 33.1 26.3 -1.8 67.6 -1.8 177.3 -2.2 116.4 3.3 199.6 3.1 51.4 -7.9 11.8 2.8 105.9 -0.3

1006.3 -6.2 38.7 -9.5 967.6 -6.0 54.5 -25.0 186.1 -7.3 40.4 115.6 30.1 24.9 -5.5 64.0 -5.4 165.0 -6.9 118.5 1.8 190.2 -4.7 48.0 -6.7 12.1 2.6 104.4 -1.4

1001.5 -0.5 37.5 -3.1 963.9 -0.4 47.7 -12.5 184.4 -0.9 38.3 116.4 29.7 23.8 -4.5 63.3 -1.0 163.9 -0.7 121.2 2.3 195.6 2.8 47.8 -0.4 12.7 5.2 103.7 -0.7

1014.6 1.3 37.4 -0.3 977.3 1.4 45.6 -4.4 185.9 0.8 38.1 117.9 30.1 23.4 -1.7 62.1 -2.0 165.9 1.2 123.3 1.8 207.4 6.0 48.0 0.3 11.8 -7.4 104.0 0.3

1033.8 1.9 37.7 1.0 996.1 1.9 43.3 -5.0 189.4 1.9 38.5 120.8 31.0 23.6 0.9 63.1 1.6 171.4 3.3 127.2 3.1 215.1 3.7 48.1 0.4 11.6 -1.2 103.3 -0.6

1057.0 2.2 38.6 2.3 1018.4 2.2 44.1 1.8 194.5 2.7 39.8 123.4 32.2 24.2 2.9 64.1 1.6 177.9 3.8 131.2 3.2 218.2 1.5 48.7 1.2 11.4 -1.9 104.0 0.7

1086.0 2.7 39.6 2.4 1046.4 2.8 49.8 12.9 199.0 2.3 41.0 124.8 33.3 24.5 1.1 64.6 0.8 189.7 6.6 134.7 2.7 218.4 0.1 49.4 1.3 11.2 -1.8 105.2 1.2

90217 1963.0 3.9 1007.5 4.6 3.5 33838 27114 6724

94914 2023.1 3.1 1048.6 4.1 3.1 30096 24389 5707

98069 2061.1 1.9 1091.4 4.1 3.7 18028 12623 5405

95987 2090.2 1.4 1117.9 2.4 5.8 10399 5568 4831

92243 2116.0 1.2 1109.9 -0.7 10.2 4481 3763 719

93903 2146.8 1.5 1121.8 1.1 11.4 4992 4391 601

94885 2178.9 1.5 1124.6 0.3 10.3 6403 4768 1636

96642 2212.7 1.6 1136.3 1.0 9.7 7980 5751 2230

99329 2258.0 2.0 1152.4 1.4 9.5 12051 8662 3389

103669 2314.2 2.5 1171.6 1.7 8.8 17637 13123 4514

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O r l a n do â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Kissimm e e

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

December 2011 V2

Personal Income (Billions $)

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

8.6 11.9 3.3 5.3 8.6 8.6 28.2 28.2 32.2 4.0

9.6 11.7 3.7 5.9 9.4 8.7 30.3 29.5 34.5 7.3

10.2 5.6 3.8 6.4 9.6 2.8 31.2 29.5 34.9 1.2

10.4 2.0 3.7 6.7 9.5 -1.2 31.4 28.8 35.9 2.8

9.8 -5.4 3.4 6.4 9.0 -5.6 29.6 27.1 36.1 0.6

10.2 3.7 3.3 6.8 9.1 1.9 30.7 27.6 36.7 1.7

10.7 5.3 3.4 7.3 9.4 2.8 32.2 28.3 37.6 2.5

11.2 4.6 3.6 7.6 9.7 3.2 33.5 29.0 38.4 2.1

11.7 4.3 3.7 7.9 10.0 2.7 34.3 29.3 39.5 2.8

12.4 6.1 4.0 8.4 10.4 4.0 35.4 29.6 40.7 3.1

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily 68