Florida & Metro Forecast 2010-2040
Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida
Published July 2010
Message From D ea n T h o ma s L . K e o n
A b o ut U n i v e r s it y o f C e n t r al F l o r ida ( U C F ) T h e Un i ve r s i t y o f C e n t r a l Fl o r i d a i s a public, multi-campus, metropolitan r e s e a r c h u n i v e r s i t y, d e d i c a t e d t o serving its surrounding communities
It seems that the state of Florida somehow manages to make the national news on a regular basis. In the past few years, we’ve dealt with “hanging chads,” devastating hurricanes and a housing market collapse. Now, we are dealing with the fallout from the BP oil spill. Unfortunately, the spill is having a devastating effect on tourism throughout the state, not just the panhandle.
with their diverse and expanding populations, technological corridors, and international partners. The mission of the university is to offer high-quality undergraduate and graduate education, student development, and continuing education; to conduct research and creative activities; and to provide services that enhance the intellectual, cultural, environmental, and economic development of the metropolitan region, address national and international issues in key areas, establish UCF as a major presence, and contribute to the global c o m m u n i t y.
A b o ut t h e C o lle g e o f B u s i n e s s A dmi n i s t r ati o n The College of Business Administration a d v a n c e s t h e u n i v e r s i t y ’s m i s s i o n and goals in providing intellectual leadership through research, teaching, and service. The college is striving to enhance graduate programs, while maintaining the strong undergraduate base. The college delivers research and quality business education programs at the undergraduate, masters, doctoral, and executive levels to citizens of the state of Florida and to select clientele n a t i o n a l l y a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y.
Florida residents are resilient and will bounce back. We just have to convince tourists and meeting planners that we are open for business and our beaches are not littered with slick oil or permanently ruined. Our state depends on tourism and we need visitors to help us with our economic recovery. Those of us lucky enough to live in the Sunshine State can help as well. Not all tourists come from other states or countries. Why not enjoy a nice summer “staycation” as they call it, and spend the day or weekend at the beach? Your money will support the state economy and help your own budget as well. Floridians need to stick together and help each other. Why not show the rest of the country how strong we are and how successful we can be? It’s time we made the national news for some positive reasons!
n o e K . L s a m o h T Sincerely,
Thomas L. Keon Dean
Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida
F lo r i da F o r e c a s t 2010 - 2040 July 2010 Report
Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Elaine Vogt, Administrative Assistant Erin Garlow, Researcher Laura Burkstrand, Researcher Cecilia Chirinos, Researcher Jessica Fears, Researcher Alexandra Betrone-Harpst, Researcher
Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright Š 2010 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved. This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitiveness’ judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.
TABLE OF CONTENTS Florida Highlights and Summary................................. 5-10 Florida Forecast Tables.................................................. 11-25
Tab l e o f c o n te n t s
Florida Forecast Charts................................................ 27-35 Florida News Summaries....................................................36 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach...............38-45 Gainesville..........................................................................46-53 Jacksonville........................................................................54-61 Lakeland.............................................................................62-69 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach...................... 70-77 Naples-Marco Island...................................................... 78-85 Ocala....................................................................................86-93 Orlando-Kissimmee....................................................... 94-101 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville.............................. 102-109 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent....................................... 110-117 Tallahassee....................................................................... 118-125 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater......................... 126-133
F LO R I D A S U M M A R Y
H i g h li g ht s o f th e J u ly 2 010 F lo r i da F o r e c a s t 2 010 -2 013 • BP has successfully placed a cap – on Florida’s tourism recovery. • In the housing sector, a cautious convalescence continues. • The labor market remains a sore spot, despite small signs of improvement. Unemployment will remain stubbornly high and will not fall below 10% until the 2nd quarter of 2012. • Payroll employment in Florida will waffle in 2010, as temporary hiring for the 2010 Census muddies the payroll jobs outlook. • Payroll job growth year-over-year is expected to average 1.6% in 2011, 3.1% in 2012, and 3.0% in 2013. It will be 2014 before payrolls recover to their pre-recession levels. • 2010 will be another difficult year for the housing market, and a post-first time home buyer tax credit let down may give the impression of a double dip. However, it is a phenomenon we have seen before in the wake of the “cash for clunkers” program. • Unemployment rates could change as the economy transitions, once again, into a job growth phase in the second half of 2010. 2011 should mark the beginning of a long, slow, steady decline in unemployment. It could be 2022 before we see unemployment fall below 5% again. • The sectors forecasted to have the strongest growth during 2010-2013 are Professional and Business Services (4.8%), Trade, Transportation & Utilities (2.8%) Manufacturing (2.5%), and Education and Health Services (2.5%). • Florida’s housing construction sector bottomed out in 2009, reaching a level that was just 16% of the peak number of starts. Housing starts will climb even more slowly than expected over the next several years. In 2013, housing starts will recover to 2001 levels, rising gradually to 158,600 starts. • After two years of contracting, Real Gross State Product (GSP) will expand 2.9% in 2010 and 2.8% in 2011, accelerate to 3.9% in 2012, and then ease slightly to 3.6% in 2013. • Real personal income growth will begin to accelerate in 2010 to 2.8%. From 20112013, personal income growth will average 3.5%, and will peak at 3.7% in 2011. • After a stuttering first half of 2010, retail sales and sales tax receipts will accelerate in 2011 and 2012. Retail sales will grow at an average pace of 5.6% during 2011-2013.
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
5
F l o rida Summary
Florida’s Economy
T w o if by s ea . . .
The arrival of British visitors in Florida is usually
a welcomed sight. The often sunburned Brits are
usually gracious, well-mannered visitors, and the
purchasing power of the British Pound made shopping, vacationing, and even buying real estate in Florida
a veritable bargain basement for them. In an earlier
forecast publication we suggested that as a result of the purchasing power of the Pound Sterling, Florida had
become a “Big Lots for Brits.” The spending and real
estate purchases of British visitors and investors helped fuel the expansion prior to the recession and continued to support the economy as the recession spread.
The latest arrival of a British visitor to Florida’s
shores is definitely not a welcome sight. The British oil that has spewed into the Gulf of Mexico has found its way to the shores of Florida’s panhandle and turned
the high season in Pensacola and neighboring counties
into a season of discontent. Hotels and restaurants that
would normally be full of 4th of July visitors were eerily
quiet, according to reports from visitors bureaus in the panhandle region.
Areas of Florida’s Gulf Coast that have not seen
any oil wash up on their beaches have been fighting
to break free of the association with areas that have. Tourists planning vacations have images of tar balls
and oil-coated pelicans to contemplate, and even the
chance that oil could impact their visit to Florida’s gulf beaches may be enough for potential visitors to scrap plans to come to Florida this year. 6
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
BP Successfully Places a Cap – On Florida’s Tourism Recovery When the Deep Horizon drilling platform exploded in the Gulf of Mexico, it not only tragically took the lives of eleven workers, it sealed the fates of thousands of other families whose economic livelihoods were also causalities of the blast that day. Millions of gallons of crude oil have flowed into the Gulf of Mexico since that fateful day in April.
In a rare bit of good news, a new cap placed on the well appears to be holding, though as of this writing it is still a tense wait to see if the mounting pressures will lead to a rupture in another area of the well, or in the sea floor surrounding it. The optimism surrounding the latest efforts to cap the well believe the fact that millions of gallons of oil are already in the Gulf and will likely continue to impact the Gulf Coast for months, if not years. The timing of the oil spill couldn’t be worse for Florida as the state emerges from what has essentially been a three year recession. Tourism in the state has been impacted during that time by the national, and indeed global, economic downturn. This was supposed to be the time that tourism was going to finally emerge from under the cloud of that recession and begin to recover. Unfortunately, the BP oil spill has put a cap on this recovery process and will delay it for a year or more. Employment in the Leisure and Hospitality sector in Florida will not begin to grow until 2012. In fact, the beleaguered Construction sector will begin to recover more quickly than Leisure & Hospitality.
BP may have successfully placed a cap on the well head at the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico, but not before the oil spill put a cap on Florida’s tourism recovery. Pressures are mounting underneath both of these caps— a welcome occurrence for the oil well, but not for the businesses and governments of Florida’s Gulf Coast.
F l o rida Summary
Florida’s Housing Market:
remains yet to be seen. The still significant inventory and ongoing weakness in fundamentals and credit conditions will continue to test this bottom for several more months.
A Cautious Convalescence Continues
Housing starts finally hit the bottom of a deep crevasse in 2009. It was a precipitous four year decline for housing starts. The low point for starts in 2009 was just a fraction of the peak level seen in 2005, but the new home construction sector has started a long rehabilitation process. Starts will increase slightly in 2010, before accelerating in 2011 and 2012. This growth will be welcomed, and will finally put an end to job losses in the Construction sector. Mortgage rates remain at historic lows, but unfortunately credit is still constrained. Refinancing to take advantage of these ultra low mortgage rates is a near impossibility for those who have seen their home values plummet over the past several years.
The extension of the first time home buyers’ tax credit expired at the end of April and there is expected to be a letdown in the wake of this incentive program coming to an end. This is not a true double-dip in housing, but akin to what we saw happen to auto sales when the automotive rebate program, more commonly known as “cash for clunkers,” expired.
The housing market continues to face significant headwinds, not only from tight credit conditions but also from the fundamental weakness of the underpinnings of housing demand. High and persistent unemployment, weak job growth, and slow population growth, combined with tight credit conditions, will ensure a protracted recovery in the housing sector. Figures 1 and 2 display data from the housing market for existing homes as released by the Florida Association of Realtors (FAR), and cover the housing market through May 2010. Sales (Figure 1) continue to rebound nicely, and median prices (Figure 2) appear to be closing in on a bottom to their steep decline. How firm this bottom turns out to be
The steep drop in prices has stimulated sales. The 12-month moving average of existing home sales (the smoother of the two lines plotted in Figure 1) has been Figure 1. Housing Sales FAR Data
Florida Single Family, Existing Homes
30000 Realtor Sales
25000
Moving Average
20000 15000 10000 5000
Data Source: Florida Association of Realtors
0
Year
Figure 2. Median Housing Prices FAR Data
Florida Single Family, Existing Homes $300,000.00 $250,000.00
Median Sales Price Moving Average
$200,000.00 $150,000.00 $100,000.00 $50,000.00 $-
Data Source: Florida Association of Realtors
Year Institute for Economic Competitiveness
7
F l o rida Summary
increasing steadily since September of 2008. Levels of sales are on par with those observed in 2006. Prices may be at a bottom, as the 12 month moving average of the median sales price has hovered around $140,000, and as of May 2010 stands at $140,400. In January, that price fell to just $130,900, a level that median price had not seen since 2001.
Outlook for Florida 2010-2013 Gross State Product Florida’s Economy Emerges from Recession Real Gross State Product (GSP) in Florida, the state-level analogue to Real GDP, has returned to a growth pattern in 2010. Growth will wobble in 2010 as Florida’s economy faces the same struggle as the national economy. Consumers dealing with the triple witching of depleted or, in many cases, negative home equity, shrunken nest eggs from the stock market’s decline, and sickly labor markets are lacking in confidence and are not spending at a pace consistent with a robust recovery.
These factors are what led to our 2nd Quarter 2009 forecast of a “gravy boat” recovery for the U.S. economy – a gradual, tapered recovery, in contrast to those predicting a V-shaped recovery. Recovery in Florida will also resemble the “gravy boat” path of the national economy. Growth will be muted and variable in the first two years of recovery, as Florida’s GSP expands at an average rate of 2.8% during 2010-2011. Improvement will begin to accelerate in 2012-2013, over which growth will average a healthier 3.8%. Nominal Gross State Product is expected to reach nearly $878 billion in 2013, as Florida resumes progress toward becoming a trillion-dollar economy. We still are forecasting GSP to finally break the trillion-dollar mark in 2016. Whether it is today’s economy of nearly threequarters of a trillion dollars, or the trillion dollar economy that Florida will eventually become, the Sunshine State is still one of the world’s largest economies. 8
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
Personal Income, Retail Sales, and Auto Sales Personal income growth will resume in 2010 with a healthy 5.4% growth rate. The first half of the year will be weaker than the second half, and that second half momentum will carry into 2011, when growth will be 5.3%. Personal income growth will accelerate slightly to 5.4% in 2012, and then back down to 5.3% 2013. Personal income growth in Florida will outpace that of the rest of the nation through 2013. This reversal in fortune in Florida comes after a three year period in which the state saw personal income growth well below the nation as a whole. In 2013 the level of personal income in Florida is expected to be in excess of $854 billion.
Real disposable income growth, which has been depressed by the floundering economy, and has contracted for two years, will finally show some growth in 2010, expanding at 2.8%. This stronger growth will be short-lived, as tax hikes at the federal, state, and local levels will begin to chip away at disposable incomes in the state. During 2011-2013, real disposable income will increase by an average rate of 2.2% each year. That compares to the average rate of growth during the seven year period from 2001-2007, when the average rate of growth for real disposable income stood at 4.1%. The outlook for disposable income, specifically as it relates to future tax rates at both the federal, state, and local levels, is more uncertain than it has been for many years. It is possible, perhaps even likely, that future tax hikes will lead to an even higher chunk of income going to the government than we are currently assuming. Hopefully, fiscal sanity or elections will check some of the reckless spending, particularly at the federal level. Nonetheless, the recent development of a European-style value-added tax suddenly entering into the lexicon of fiscal policy discussions as a way to pay for expensive bailouts and health care reform is a disturbing development. Consumers in Florida have been beleaguered, much more so than their counterparts around the country, by disappearing home equity and an evaporation of stock market wealth. In the Orlando and Miami metropolitan statistical areas, 85% of homeowners are under water, according to Fitch Ratings. So for 85%,
F l o rida Summary
home equity has a negative wealth effect on spending. The other 15% are not much better off in that sense, as they have also lost a tremendous amount of wealth, but their homes remain, for now, a net asset. The stock market made a strong recovery from the depths of despair at which it wallowed a little more than a year ago. However, that recovery is still well below the pre-crisis levels. Stock prices seem to be treading water at this point, as more evidence of a national economic recovery that is decelerating continues to emerge. The housing market in Florida has had no such run of luck, and while housing prices may have reached a bottom, the home equity that has been lost may take decades to be recouped.
Double digit unemployment will continue to weigh on consumer spending, but as the labor market stabilizes and private sector job creation builds momentum it will help bolster consumer confidence. Pent-up demand and a clearer sense for those who remained employed during the recession that their jobs are now safe will help to unlock some of the consumer spending that job insecurity inhibited.
Retail sales in Florida will grow slightly in the first half of 2010. Once the labor market has fully stabilized and begins its long path to recovery after the 2nd quarter of 2010, retail spending will begin to accelerate. We expect retail sales to expand from the 3rd quarter of 2010 going forward through the end of our forecast horizon. The average quarterly growth rate will be nearly 5.7% over this time frame. Retail sales will reach their pre-recession peak in the 3rd quarter of 2011. This year’s holiday shopping season may, for the first time in several years, be more than just a lump of coal to retailers. The recession, credit crunch, volatile energy prices, and a collapsing domestic automotive industry did conspire to bring average new passenger car and truck registrations down overall in 2009 for a fourth straight year. Registrations will begin to climb later in 2010, but will not reach the “cash for clunkers” levels until the 1st quarter of 2011.
Employment Overall payroll employment growth in the state is expected to shrink by just under -1.0% for 2010 versus
2009. This comes after contracting at a -6.2% rate in 2009 compared to 2008.
Payroll job losses in Florida have persisted through the 1st half of 2010. Even though payrolls will begin to grow later in 2010, the average level of employment in 2010 will still be below the average for 2009. While payroll growth will finally take root in 2010, it will only gain momentum in 2011, a year when job growth versus a year ago is expected to come in at 1.6%. Going forward, we have lowered growth slightly in the out years of our forecast, in part due to the impact of the Gulf oil spill. Payroll job growth will reach 3.1% in 2012, before tempering to 3.0% in 2013. Despite this acceleration of job growth, we believe it will now be 2015 before payroll employment levels return to their pre-recession peak.
The Construction sector, which has been in near free fall after peaking during the housing boom, will continue to show the painful effects of a pitiful housing market, the credit freeze, and an emerging crisis in the commercial construction market. Any job creation from the shovel-ready projects that will be funded by the federal economic stimulus plan will help resurrect some jobs in this sector. We expect that it will be the end of 2011 before this sector starts to add jobs once again. As previously discussed, the bottom of the residential real estate market will give way to tepid growth in housing starts, and will not be enough to have a major impact on employment in this sector. Despite the economic stimulus bill, this sector will continue to be the worst-performing private sector in the state’s economy on average through 2013, as far as job growth is concerned. Cumulative job losses in the sector have been catastrophic. It will likely be the year 2032 before the Construction sector has payroll employment levels back to the pre-recession peaks hit in 2006.
Job growth will not return to the Construction sector until the 4th quarter of 2011. Growth rates are expected to surge to 6.8% in 2012 and 9.3% in 2013 when the commercial sector will join in on the recovery, the full extent of the stimulus spending is felt, and the economic recovery expansion is in full swing. This recession claimed many white collar jobs, as reflected in the performance of the Professional and Business Services sector. Now that Florida’s economy Institute for Economic Competitiveness
9
F l o rida Summary has exited the recession, this sector will once again show robust growth in Florida. Job gains accelerate from mid-2010 and rise to 7.0% in 2011, 5.4% in 2012, and 6.0% in 2013. This sector will recover far more quickly than others, and will get back to pre-recession levels of employment in the 1st quarter of 2013.
The Information sector will continue to shed jobs through the middle of 2010. Newspapers continue to struggle amidst the structural changes gripping the industry. Advertising revenues have fallen off dramatically during the recession for all traditional media outlets, thanks in large part to the ongoing woes of the automotive industry and the housing bust, and several major newspapers and publishing groups have teetered on the edge of bankruptcy. Meager job growth will return in the second half of 2010. 2011 will be the first full year of job growth in this sector after nine of the ten prior years yielded job losses, including five straight years of net job losses leading up to 2011. Job growth will jump to 3.8% in 2011 as the recovery kicks into gear, and more or less stabilize around 2.4% in 2012-2013. The one sector that continued to create jobs during the recession and that is expected to continue to expand through the end of our forecast horizon is the Health and Education sector. During 2010-2013, employment in this sector is expected to expand at an average rate of 2.5%. The average growth rate for overall payroll employment during the same time frame is expected to be 1.7%.
It is still difficult to tell precisely how healthcare reform will manifest itself in Florida, but clearly, with expanding coverage and an aging population in Florida, it appears that demand for health services will remain strong in the foreseeable future. This rising demand should continue to drive job growth in this sector. The possibility of Medicare cuts, however, does raise an issue of concern that could seriously impact this sector’s future in Florida.
Manufacturing will continue to contract in Florida through the 3rd quarter of 2010. Globalization and productivity gains in manufacturing have combined to severely reduce employment in this sector. This sector is emerging from this lengthy and challenging period as competitive as it has been in many years. This will help drive job growth as exports continue to rise. We are expecting to see job growth of 4.3% in this sector for the full year in 2011, followed by an 10
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
even stronger year of job growth in 2012, when manufacturing employment will expand at a rate of 5.0%. For the first time in decades, manufacturing is expected to gain jobs in three consecutive years, as 2013 job growth is expected to be 3.3%.
Unemployment Unemployment rates in Florida have surged from record low levels of just 3.4% in 2006 to greater than 12% at present. Robust growth had sharply and quickly ratcheted down the unemployment rate, and when that growth faded, the unemployment rate began to soar. Florida’s unemployment rate, once more than a full percentage point below the historically low national unemployment rate, now has risen above the near double digit rate of national unemployment. Both will peak in 2010, and both will be slow to decline. Moderate growth will chip away at Florida’s unemployment rate but cannot ratchet it down dramatically.
How high will unemployment get? We are expecting unemployment to average 12.1% in the 3rd quarter of 2010 and remain above 10% until the 2nd quarter of 2012. Thereafter, unemployment will begin a slow decline through the end of 2013. By the end of 2013, unemployment will still be uncomfortably high at 8.0%. Compared to the amazingly low levels of unemployment during the boom, these levels are still quite high. In fact we do not expect to see unemployment in Florida fall below 5.0% again until 2022.
The problem of underemployment and marginally attached workers–those who are neither working nor looking for work, but indicate that they want and are available for a job, and have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months—and those who have given up searching for a job entirely, is substantial and will be a factor behind the persistently high unemployment rate. When adding these workers to the top level unemployment figure, this broader measure of unemployment, known as U6, paints an even grimmer picture of labor markets, and is over 19% through the 1st quarter of 2010 in Florida, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This is higher than the previous BLS estimate of 18% that covered the 4th quarter of 2009.
F l o rida Summary T ab l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
508.4
531.2
582.8
633.2
690.3
Florida (%Ch)
4.3
4.5
9.7
8.7
9.0
U.S.(%Ch)
2.0
3.5
6.0
5.5
492.2
504.0
538.8
Florida (%Ch)
2.9
2.4
U.S.(%Ch)
3.8
2.5
441.7
459.0
Florida (%Ch)
5.2
U.S.(%Ch)
3.8
2007
2008
2009
2010
713.5
719.7
700.4
731.4
3.4
0.9
-2.7
4.4
7.5
5.6
2.9
-1.7
3.2
568.4
603.1
607.2
592.6
575.6
591.5
6.9
5.5
6.1
0.7
-2.4
-2.9
2.8
10.1
4.3
7.6
-4.2
0.1
-4.3
4.7
487.8
506.5
537.3
540.3
533.6
531.4
546.5
3.9
6.3
3.8
6.1
0.6
-1.2
-0.4
2.8
2.5
10.1
4.3
7.6
-4.2
0.1
-4.3
4.7
522.7
559.0
607.3
670.0
721.4
741.9
744.1
724.9
753.6
5.1
6.9
8.6
10.3
7.7
2.8
0.3
-2.6
4.0
497.3
520.4
548.6
589.3
613.6
613.4
603.5
581.5
598.2
(%Ch)
2.6
4.6
5.4
7.4
4.1
0.0
-1.6
-3.6
2.9
Employment
0.0
1.7
3.0
3.8
3.4
1.4
-1.0
-4.5
Labor Force
1.1
1.3
2.3
2.9
2.9
2.2
1.4
-0.1
0.9
FL Unemployment Rate (%)
5.7
5.3
4.7
3.8
3.4
4.1
6.3
10.5
12.1
U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)
5.8
6.0
5.5
5.1
4.6
4.6
5.8
9.3
9.7
-0.4
Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)
Personal Income (Bil. 2000$)
Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$)
GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2000$)
Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) -0.9
Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction
-1.1
-0.3
1.1
1.7
1.8
1.1
-0.6
-4.3
0.1
1.1
3.4
4.0
2.6
0.2
-3.5
-6.2
-1.0
-12.8
-1.2
0.2
-0.8
-6.5
1.6
-7.8
-11.6
-0.9 -10.5
1.1
3.8
9.4
11.3
7.2
-8.8
-17.4
-23.2
Manufacturing
-5.8
-4.2
0.2
1.2
0.2
-4.2
-7.0
-13.0
-2.6
Nondurable Goods
-3.6
-3.3
-2.1
-1.8
-2.0
-1.5
-6.2
-9.7
-2.0
Durable Goods
-7.0
-4.7
1.4
2.6
1.3
-5.4
-7.4
-14.7
-2.9
Trans. Warehs. & Utility
-2.8
-3.2
1.6
3.8
1.4
0.1
-2.1
-6.3
-1.3
Wholesale Trade
-0.2
0.5
3.4
4.1
2.9
1.5
-3.1
-8.1
-1.5
Retail Trade
-1.2
-0.2
2.7
4.1
2.0
0.5
-2.9
-6.6
-0.2
Financial Activities
1.2
2.2
3.8
5.0
3.2
-1.0
-4.6
-7.5
-4.0
Prof. and Business Services
0.2
1.5
5.9
7.1
4.2
0.7
-6.1
-7.5
0.7
Edu & Health Services
2.7
3.7
3.0
2.4
2.7
3.1
2.1
1.1
3.1
Leisure & Hospitality
0.4
1.8
4.3
2.7
1.4
2.0
-1.4
-4.5
-2.3 -5.8
Information
-5.7
-3.7
-2.1
0.2
-0.9
-0.3
-3.4
-8.2
Federal Gov't.
0.4
3.4
0.4
1.5
-0.8
0.2
1.4
2.1
3.9
State & Local Gov't.
1.7
1.1
1.4
1.4
2.0
2.4
0.3
-1.2
-0.5
Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)
16715.9 17035.6 17426.5 17814.9 18104.7 18293.3 18436.1 18553.9 18680.9 2.0
1.9
2.3
2.2
1.6
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.7
Net Migration (thous)
68.7
76.1
88.5
74.0
44.3
26.3
17.9
15.5
18.4
(%Ch)
-1.1
11.9
18.6
-16.2
-41.8
-36.7
-32.4
-7.4
20.3
Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)
182.6
207.7
238.8
272.7
205.2
101.7
60.8
33.8
43.6
Housing Starts Single Family (thous)
133.5
159.8
183.1
211.4
156.3
74.9
40.8
27.1
41.3
49.1
47.9
55.7
61.3
48.9
26.9
20.0
6.7
2.3
1.7
2.7
2.9
4.2
-0.3
1.7
Housing
Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)
Consumer Prices (%Ch)
4.6
4.1
3.3
Continued
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
11
F l o rida Summary T ab l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
770.2
811.8
854.5
910.1
967.2
1027.0
Florida (%Ch)
5.3
5.4
5.3
6.5
6.3
6.2
U.S.(%Ch)
4.7
5.1
4.8
6.0
5.5
613.2
635.0
656.0
685.2
Florida (%Ch)
3.7
3.6
3.3
U.S.(%Ch)
6.4
5.2
4.7
560.5
573.5
Florida (%Ch)
2.6
U.S.(%Ch)
6.4 786.3
2017
2018
2019
2020
1088.1
1150.0
1218.4
1290.5
6.0
5.7
6.0
5.9
5.6
5.1
5.0
5.1
5.2
714.2
743.7
772.8
800.6
832.3
865.4
4.5
4.2
4.1
3.9
3.6
4.0
4.0
5.8
4.7
5.5
5.4
5.6
5.8
5.8
583.9
610.0
635.4
661.0
685.5
708.2
734.5
761.6
2.3
1.8
4.5
4.2
4.0
3.7
3.3
3.7
3.7
5.2
4.7
5.8
4.7
5.5
5.4
5.6
5.8
5.8
831.8
878.2
929.6
982.1
1037.9
1093.3
1150.5
1211.7
1275.0
Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)
Personal Income (Bil. 2000$)
Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$)
GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch)
4.3
5.8
5.6
5.8
5.6
5.7
5.3
5.2
5.3
5.2
614.9
639.2
662.1
687.0
711.9
738.3
763.1
787.7
814.3
840.9
(%Ch)
2.8
3.9
3.6
3.8
3.6
3.7
3.4
3.2
3.4
3.3
Employment
1.6
2.6
2.6
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.7
Labor Force
0.6
0.8
1.1
1.2
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.4
11.3
9.7
8.4
7.5
7.1
6.7
6.3
5.9
5.6
5.2
9.2
8.4
7.7
7.3
6.9
6.4
6.1
5.8
5.5
5.2
0.8
GSP (Bil. 2000$)
Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)
FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)
Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S.
1.8
2.7
2.1
1.5
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.8
Florida
1.6
3.1
3.0
2.4
2.1
2.1
1.8
1.5
1.6
1.6
0.8
0.1
-0.9
-0.6
-1.7
-2.7
-2.9
-3.1
-3.0
-2.0
Mining Construction
-2.2
6.8
9.3
5.9
3.5
3.7
3.5
3.2
2.0
2.1
Manufacturing
4.3
5.0
3.3
1.2
-0.1
-0.7
-0.7
-0.6
-0.7
-0.7
Nondurable Goods
0.5
0.6
-0.5
-1.2
-1.0
-0.7
-0.5
-0.7
-0.9
-0.8
Durable Goods
6.3
7.1
5.1
2.3
0.3
-0.6
-0.7
-0.5
-0.7
-0.7
Trans. Warehs. & Utility
2.9
5.8
4.0
2.9
2.9
2.6
2.3
1.6
0.6
0.1
Wholesale Trade
2.0
4.4
3.4
2.3
1.9
1.3
1.1
1.4
1.4
1.6
Retail Trade
0.6
2.5
2.3
1.5
0.8
-0.1
-0.3
0.1
0.5
0.4
Financial Activities
0.4
2.9
1.3
0.6
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.4
0.6
0.4
Prof. and Business Services
7.0
5.4
6.0
6.0
5.6
6.1
5.0
3.8
4.3
4.1
Edu & Health Services
2.4
2.6
1.8
2.0
2.1
2.8
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.0
-0.2
2.0
2.4
0.9
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.5
0.1
3.8
2.5
2.2
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.9
1.5
1.4
0.9
Federal Gov't.
-5.7
-1.3
-0.5
-0.1
0.2
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.8
7.3
State & Local Gov't.
-0.9
0.9
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.2
1.2
1.0
1.0
0.8
Leisure & Hospitality Information
Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)
18821.6 19020.1 19288.4 19605.5 19942.2 20288.9 20644.7 21005.5 21368.0 21731.3 0.8
1.1
1.4
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.7
Net Migration (thous)
25.4
41.9
58.4
66.3
68.9
70.5
71.8
71.9
71.5
71.1
(%Ch)
38.7
66.8
40.0
14.0
3.9
2.3
1.8
0.1
-0.5
-0.6
Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)
87.8
135.1
158.6
165.0
171.8
181.0
185.6
188.1
191.5
193.4
Housing Starts Single Family (thous)
72.5
111.2
125.8
127.6
129.2
132.8
134.2
135.0
135.9
136.3
Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)
15.3
23.8
32.8
37.4
42.6
48.2
51.5
53.1
55.6
57.0
1.8
2.2
2.3
2.2
2.0
2.2
2.1
1.8
Housing
Consumer Prices (%Ch)
12
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
2.1
2.1
Continued
F l o rida Summary T ab l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
1363.6
1438.2
1512.8
1589.2
1671.3
1758.8
Florida (%Ch)
5.7
5.5
5.2
5.0
5.2
5.2
U.S.(%Ch)
5.0
4.9
4.7
4.6
4.7
2027
2028
2029
2030
1850.6
1944.0
2041.9
2143.6
5.2
5.0
5.0
5.0
4.7
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.6 1198.2
Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)
898.4
930.9
961.7
991.8
1024.0
1058.1
1093.3
1127.5
1162.7
Florida (%Ch)
Personal Income (Bil. 2000$)
3.8
3.6
3.3
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.1
3.1
3.1
U.S.(%Ch)
5.7
5.3
4.9
4.5
4.7
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.4 1020.1
788.3
815.1
838.4
861.7
887.6
913.2
941.4
968.0
993.3
Florida (%Ch)
Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$)
3.5
3.4
2.8
2.8
3.0
2.9
3.1
2.8
2.6
2.7
U.S.(%Ch)
5.7
5.3
4.9
4.5
4.7
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.4
1339.5
1408.4
1478.7
1550.6
1628.9
1709.3
1790.9
1875.9
1966.1
2062.9
5.1
5.1
5.0
4.9
5.1
4.9
4.8
4.7
4.8
4.9
868.6
899.0
929.2
959.1
991.4
1023.3
1054.1
1085.6
1118.4
1153.4
(%Ch)
3.3
3.5
3.4
3.2
3.4
3.2
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.1
Employment
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
Labor Force
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2000$)
Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)
FL Unemployment Rate (%)
5.1
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.1
U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)
5.0
4.9
4.9
4.8
4.8
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
5.0
1.0
Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S.
0.7
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
Florida
1.7
1.9
1.7
1.4
1.6
1.7
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.6
-1.7
-1.4
-1.4
-1.9
-1.7
-1.1
-1.1
-1.2
-0.8
-0.5
Mining Construction
2.6
2.8
2.8
2.4
2.5
2.8
2.4
2.0
2.0
2.1
Manufacturing
-1.7
-2.0
-2.2
-1.9
-1.6
-1.5
-1.3
-1.4
-1.2
-1.0
Nondurable Goods
-1.1
-1.5
-1.4
-1.4
-1.4
-1.3
-1.2
-1.1
-1.0
-1.1
Durable Goods
-1.9
-2.3
-2.5
-2.2
-1.7
-1.5
-1.4
-1.5
-1.2
-0.9
Trans. Warehs. & Utility
1.8
2.6
2.3
2.1
2.0
1.8
1.2
1.0
1.2
0.3
Wholesale Trade
2.1
2.6
2.3
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.3
Retail Trade
0.3
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.8
0.9
0.7
0.5
Financial Activities
0.5
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.4
Prof. and Business Services
5.1
4.9
4.0
2.9
3.7
3.8
3.2
3.3
3.7
3.5
Edu & Health Services
1.3
1.2
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.2
Leisure & Hospitality
0.4
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.5
0.7
0.9
0.9
1.0
0.7
Information
1.2
1.5
1.5
1.2
1.2
1.6
1.7
1.9
2.1
1.9
-3.5
1.1
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
7.5
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.
Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)
22095.9 22464.7 22838.1 23216.0 23598.2 23984.8 24375.7 24771.3 25170.0 25571.0 1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
71.1
71.7
72.4
73.1
73.7
74.4
75.0
75.7
76.4
77.0
0.0
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)
191.6
194.1
195.6
196.5
199.0
199.9
196.5
191.8
188.3
188.7
Housing Starts Single Family (thous)
134.6
136.0
137.2
139.0
142.1
143.3
140.2
135.7
133.0
133.8
57.0
58.2
58.4
57.5
56.9
56.6
56.4
56.1
55.3
54.9
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.9
1.9
1.9
2.0
1.9
Net Migration (thous) (%Ch)
Housing
Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)
Consumer Prices (%Ch)
1.9
1.8
Continued
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
13
F l o rida Summary T ab l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2252.2
2368.7
2486.7
2606.1
2729.3
2859.8
Florida (%Ch)
5.1
5.2
5.0
4.8
4.7
4.8
U.S.(%Ch)
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.5
4.5
1235.6
1275.4
1313.6
1350.5
Florida (%Ch)
3.1
3.2
3.0
U.S.(%Ch)
4.3
4.3
4.3
1049.5
1079.9
Florida (%Ch)
2.9
U.S.(%Ch)
4.3 2166.9
2037
2038
2039
2040
2992.4
3128.3
3268.3
3415.4
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
1387.7
1426.5
1464.2
1501.1
1537.6
1575.4
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.5
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.5
4.5
1108.3
1136.6
1164.7
1193.9
1221.6
1248.5
1274.7
1301.7
2.9
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.1
4.3
4.3
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.5
4.5
2276.4
2387.9
2502.1
2620.5
2747.8
2882.9
3021.1
3170.4
3330.5
Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)
Personal Income (Bil. 2000$)
Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$)
GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch)
5.0
5.1
4.9
4.8
4.7
4.9
4.9
4.8
4.9
5.0
1190.8
1229.7
1268.0
1306.0
1344.4
1385.4
1428.4
1471.0
1516.8
1565.5
(%Ch)
3.2
3.3
3.1
3.0
2.9
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.1
3.2
Employment
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.4
Labor Force
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
FL Unemployment Rate (%)
5.1
5.2
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.5
U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)
5.0
5.0
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
0.9
GSP (Bil. 2000$)
Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)
Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S.
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
Florida
1.8
2.0
1.6
1.3
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.1
1.1
1.1
-0.1
0.2
-0.2
-0.6
-1.0
-0.9
-0.7
-0.9
-1.1
-1.6
Mining Construction
2.9
3.0
2.9
2.0
1.8
1.9
2.1
1.9
1.9
1.5
Manufacturing
-0.8
-0.9
-1.1
-1.0
-1.1
-1.0
-0.9
-0.8
-0.5
-0.2
Nondurable Goods
-1.0
-0.9
-0.9
-0.9
-1.1
-1.1
-1.1
-1.1
-0.9
-0.8
Durable Goods
-0.7
-0.9
-1.1
-1.0
-1.1
-0.9
-0.9
-0.7
-0.3
0.0
Trans. Warehs. & Utility
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.2
-0.4
-0.5
-0.6
-0.8
Wholesale Trade
0.8
0.3
0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
0.2
Retail Trade
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.6
Financial Activities
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.1
0.6
Prof. and Business Services
4.2
4.7
3.4
2.7
2.5
2.8
2.7
2.1
2.1
2.3
Edu & Health Services
1.3
1.5
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.8
Leisure & Hospitality
1.1
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.7
1.0
0.3
Information
2.5
3.0
2.5
1.7
1.5
1.8
2.1
2.1
1.9
1.4
-4.3
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
6.0
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.
Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)
25974.5 26380.3 26788.3 27198.7 27611.2 28026.2 28444.1 28865.2 29290.0 29719.5 1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
77.7
78.3
78.9
79.6
80.2
80.8
81.4
82.0
82.7
83.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
1.2
Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)
187.4
183.7
182.1
182.7
183.1
182.2
179.5
177.0
176.0
174.7
Housing Starts Single Family (thous)
132.9
128.8
127.6
128.6
129.8
130.3
129.1
127.5
126.9
126.2
54.6
54.9
54.4
54.1
53.3
51.9
50.4
49.5
49.1
48.5
1.9
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.1
Net Migration (thous) (%Ch)
Housing
Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)
Consumer Prices (%Ch)
14
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
2.0
2.0
F l o rida Summary T ab l e s Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4
Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)
729.6
739.1
747.8
757.4
764.8
774.1
784.3
795.1
806.5
817.6
828.2
837.6
848.9
860.1
Florida (%Ch)
4.0
6.1
6.3
6.8
4.8
4.7
4.9
5.0
5.4
5.6
5.6
5.3
5.3
5.2
5.2
U.S.(%Ch)
2.4
4.0
4.4
4.7
4.7
4.6
4.7
4.7
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.0
4.9
4.8
4.8 664.5
Personal Income (Bil. 2000$)
871.5
591.5
597.0
602.0
606.9
610.3
615.0
620.5
626.2
632.4
638.1
643.2
647.4
653.1
658.8
Florida (%Ch)
2.2
4.5
5.0
5.4
3.2
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.6
3.8
3.7
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.3
U.S.(%Ch)
5.1
5.5
5.7
6.4
6.5
6.4
6.5
5.9
5.4
4.9
4.5
4.4
4.6
4.9
5.1
546.1
551.7
555.0
554.7
558.1
562.1
567.2
567.0
571.9
575.7
579.2
578.4
581.1
585.2
590.8
Florida(%Ch)
Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$)
2.2
4.6
4.8
4.1
2.2
1.9
2.2
2.2
2.5
2.4
2.1
2.0
1.6
1.6
2.0
U.S.(%Ch)
5.1
5.5
5.7
6.4
6.5
6.4
6.5
5.9
5.4
4.9
4.5
4.4
4.6
4.9
5.1
751.4
758.0
763.2
771.6
780.3
791.1
802.1
813.9
825.5
837.6
850.1
861.4
872.7
883.9
895.0
GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch)
4.4
4.7
4.0
4.0
3.9
4.4
5.1
5.5
5.8
5.9
6.0
5.8
5.7
5.5
5.3
596.7
599.6
603.5
607.2
611.5
617.4
623.6
629.6
635.9
642.3
648.8
653.8
659.4
665.0
670.2
3.2
3.2
2.6
2.4
2.5
3.0
3.3
3.7
4.0
4.0
4.0
3.8
3.7
3.5
3.3
Employment
-1.2
-0.3
0.4
1.1
1.3
1.8
2.3
2.4
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.5
2.4
Labor Force
1.0
1.1
1.1
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.2
12.1
12.1
12.1
11.8
11.5
11.1
10.7
10.3
9.9
9.4
9.1
8.8
8.5
8.2
8.0
9.9
9.7
9.6
9.5
9.3
9.1
8.9
8.7
8.5
8.3
8.1
7.9
7.8
7.6
7.5
GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch)
Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)
FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)
Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S.
-0.6
0.3
0.9
1.4
1.5
2.0
2.4
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.0
1.8
Florida
-1.1
-0.3
0.5
0.9
1.1
1.9
2.5
2.9
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.1
3.2
3.0
2.9
Mining
-0.4
-0.3
0.0
0.1
0.4
1.3
1.6
1.4
0.4
-0.5
-1.0
-1.4
-1.1
-0.7
-0.5
-11.0
-8.8
-5.5
-5.4
-4.5
-0.7
1.9
4.6
6.7
7.5
8.6
9.3
9.5
9.5
9.0
Manufacturing
-4.2
-0.5
3.9
4.6
3.9
4.2
4.4
5.1
5.2
5.0
4.6
4.0
3.6
3.1
2.5
Nondurable Goods
-2.8
-0.1
1.4
1.1
0.3
0.1
0.4
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.2
-0.2
-0.5
-0.7
-0.8
Construction
Durable Goods
-4.8
-0.6
5.3
6.4
5.8
6.4
6.4
7.3
7.4
7.1
6.7
6.0
5.5
4.8
4.0
Trans. Warehs. & Utility
-1.3
-0.3
-0.1
0.5
1.8
3.9
5.3
6.0
6.1
5.6
5.3
4.7
4.3
3.8
3.4
Wholesale Trade
-1.8
-0.3
0.3
-0.2
1.2
2.9
4.2
5.0
4.7
4.0
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.4
2.8
Retail Trade
-0.4
0.3
1.0
-0.1
0.3
0.6
1.4
1.9
2.6
2.9
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.1
Financial Activities
-4.6
-3.3
-3.0
-2.0
-0.3
1.0
2.8
3.4
3.2
2.8
2.3
1.7
1.4
1.1
0.9
Prof. and Business Services
-0.4
1.7
3.5
5.7
7.2
7.6
7.4
6.3
5.5
5.1
4.7
5.2
6.0
6.4
6.6
Edu & Health Services
3.4
3.5
2.8
2.3
2.0
2.4
2.7
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.1
1.9
1.7
1.5
-2.8
-1.5
-1.3
0.0
-0.1
-0.4
-0.1
0.6
1.5
2.5
3.3
3.2
2.7
2.1
1.6
Information
-7.1
-4.6
-2.7
2.3
4.2
4.6
4.0
3.3
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.3
2.3
2.0
Federal Gov't.
10.8
3.6
0.2
-1.4
-13.0
-5.7
-2.6
-1.8
-1.3
-1.1
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.4
-0.4
0.1
-0.8
-0.9
-1.3
-1.4
-0.7
-0.2
0.3
0.7
1.1
1.4
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.7
Leisure & Hospitality
State & Local Gov't.
Population and Migration Population (thous)
18665.0 18696.6 18728.4 18762.2 18799.0 18840.0 18885.3 18934.8 18988.7 19047.1 19109.9 19177.4 19249.3 19324.6 19402.5
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.5
Net Migration (thous)
(%Ch)
17.8
17.9
18.2
20.0
23.0
27.2
31.3
35.5
39.8
44.1
48.4
53.0
57.2
60.4
62.8
(%Ch)
26.3
12.3
1.9
1.6
29.4
51.5
72.2
76.9
73.0
62.5
54.7
49.4
43.8
37.0
29.7
Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)
48.6
37.4
43.9
64.7
81.6
97.2
107.9
120.6
130.6
141.6
147.5
151.4
157.8
162.0
163.2
Housing Starts Single Family (thous)
40.2
42.4
45.0
52.9
66.2
79.7
91.5
100.1
108.5
116.8
119.5
121.0
125.7
128.3
128.2
Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)
8.5
-5.0
-1.1
11.8
15.4
17.5
16.5
20.5
22.1
24.8
28.0
30.3
32.1
33.8
35.0
(%Ch)
1.8
1.7
1.4
1.4
1.8
1.8
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.2
Housing
Consumer Prices 2.0
2.0
2.1
*Quarterly at an annual rate
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
15
F l o rida Summary T ab l e s Table 3. Employment Quarterly* 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4
Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm Manufacturing Durable Goods Wood Products Computer & Electronics Transportation Equipment Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining Construction
7195.2 7185.8 7199.8 7231.6 7272.3 7324.1 7381.9 7439.5 7494.7 7554.1 7614.5 7672.9 7730.8 7783.6 7832.2 312.7
315.5
319.1
321.3
325.0
328.8
333.2
337.8
341.8
345.2
348.5
351.3
354.1
355.9
357.4
205.0
207.4
211.1
213.4
216.9
220.6
224.7
228.9
232.9
236.3
239.8
242.7
245.7
247.7
249.5
8.7
8.8
9.0
9.2
9.5
9.8
10.1
10.4
10.7
10.9
11.2
11.2
11.3
11.3
11.4
42.9
43.7
44.3
44.1
44.0
43.5
43.1
43.1
43.1
43.3
43.8
44.5
44.9
45.0
45.3
33.5
33.6
34.1
34.7
35.3
36.0
36.9
37.8
38.7
39.5
40.2
40.9
41.5
42.1
42.5
107.7
108.1
108.0
107.9
108.1
108.2
108.5
108.8
108.9
108.9
108.7
108.6
108.4
108.2
107.9
28.5
28.4
28.3
28.3
28.2
28.2
28.2
28.3
28.3
28.3
28.2
28.2
28.2
28.2
28.1
6882.6 6870.3 6880.6 6910.3 6947.3 6995.3 7048.7 7101.8 7152.9 7208.9 7266.0 7321.6 7376.7 7427.7 7474.8 5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
355.9
346.7
342.1
339.0
339.8
344.3
348.6
354.5
362.4
370.3
378.5
387.3
396.9
405.3
412.7
Trans. Warehs. & Utility
227.5
226.7
226.9
229.0
231.6
235.6
238.9
242.7
245.7
248.9
251.6
254.2
256.2
258.3
260.1
Wholesale Trade
313.1
312.7
312.1
313.1
316.9
321.8
325.4
328.8
331.8
334.8
338.2
341.3
343.7
346.2
347.7
Retail Trade
920.8
920.7
922.0
923.0
923.6
926.6
934.5
940.9
947.5
953.3
958.4
963.2
969.7
974.9
978.7
Information
133.9
134.2
135.9
138.1
139.6
140.4
141.2
142.6
143.0
143.6
144.3
145.5
146.3
146.8
147.2
Prof. & Bus. Services
1038.6 1051.8 1073.1 1097.1 1113.8 1132.2 1152.6 1166.8 1175.0 1189.7 1207.0 1227.3 1245.9 1265.5 1286.1
Admin. & Support
519.9
530.3
550.3
567.5
574.7
586.1
599.8
609.8
614.9
625.5
638.7
654.3
668.2
683.3
699.1
Prof. Sci & Tech
437.0
439.1
439.8
446.3
455.3
462.3
468.3
471.9
474.4
477.8
481.2
485.4
489.4
493.4
497.5
81.7
82.4
82.9
83.3
83.7
83.8
84.5
85.1
85.7
86.5
87.1
87.7
88.3
88.8
89.4
464.1
462.3
458.5
459.5
462.7
466.8
471.4
475.0
477.3
480.0
482.0
483.2
483.9
485.3
486.1
Mgmt. of Co. Financial Activities Real Estate & Rent
151.5
151.2
150.6
151.7
152.9
154.4
156.0
157.3
158.5
159.8
160.7
161.4
162.0
162.8
163.5
Fin. & Insurance
312.6
311.0
307.9
307.8
309.8
312.4
315.4
317.7
318.8
320.1
321.3
321.8
321.8
322.5
322.6
Edu. & Health Service Education Services
1089.1 1094.1 1098.6 1102.2 1111.2 1120.8 1128.2 1133.9 1141.7 1148.3 1154.1 1157.2 1163.6 1168.0 1171.8 146.5
147.4
147.5
148.0
148.2
148.1
148.2
148.0
147.9
147.7
147.5
147.5
147.4
147.3
147.1
Health Services
942.6
946.7
951.1
954.2
963.1
972.7
980.0
985.9
993.8 1000.6 1006.6 1009.8 1016.2 1020.7 1024.7
Leisure & Hospitality
889.0
889.8
887.8
887.4
887.9
886.5
886.6
892.8
901.3
908.7
915.6
921.3
925.2
927.6
930.4
311.3
311.9
312.5
314.1
314.4
314.8
315.4
315.9
315.8
316.6
317.3
317.9
317.8
318.1
318.5
Other Services Government
1133.7 1114.1 1105.5 1102.4 1100.3 1099.9 1100.6 1102.5 1105.8 1109.4 1113.6 1117.8 1122.2 1126.3 1130.3
Federal Gov't.
149.0
136.9
132.1
130.7
129.7
129.1
128.6
128.3
128.0
127.7
127.6
127.4
127.3
127.1
State & Local Gov't
984.7
977.2
973.5
971.7
970.6
970.8
971.9
974.2
977.8
981.7
986.0
990.4
994.9
999.2 1003.2
*Quarterly at an annual rate
16
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
127.1
F l o rida Summary T ab l e s Table 4. Employment Annual 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm
7169.1
7250.4
7499.3
7799.8
8002.2
8018.1
7735.5
7259.1
7187.8
Manufacturing
428.0
409.8
410.7
415.4
416.3
399.0
371.0
322.8
313.6
Durable Goods
283.4
270.0
273.8
281.0
284.6
269.2
249.3
212.9
206.0
Wood Products
18.0
17.8
20.3
22.4
21.6
17.0
12.8
9.2
8.7
Computer & Electronics
59.7
53.4
52.5
51.4
50.1
49.2
48.0
44.5
43.4
Transportation Equipment
44.9
43.7
44.3
45.6
45.7
44.6
42.5
34.7
33.4
144.6
139.8
136.9
134.5
131.8
129.8
121.7
109.9
107.7
35.2
34.1
33.3
32.4
31.2
31.4
29.6
27.9
28.3
6741.1
6840.5
7088.6
7384.4
7585.8
7619.1
7364.4
6936.3
6874.2
7.2
7.1
7.1
7.1
6.6
6.7
6.2
5.5
5.4
Construction
500.5
519.7
568.5
633.0
677.8
618.5
511.5
393.0
350.7
Trans. Warehs. & Utility
242.3
234.7
238.3
247.3
250.8
251.0
245.9
230.3
227.2
Wholesale Trade
315.7
317.3
328.0
341.4
351.4
356.7
345.7
317.7
312.9
Retail Trade
931.2
928.9
954.2
993.5
1013.3
1017.9
988.7
923.3
921.8
Information
172.8
166.3
162.9
163.2
161.7
161.3
155.8
143.0
134.7
Prof. & Bus. Services
995.0
1010.3
1069.6
1145.5
1193.6
1201.7
1128.4
1043.4
1050.5
Admin. & Support
547.2
553.7
590.6
636.7
662.8
660.7
589.4
531.6
531.0
Prof. Sci & Tech
376.8
384.9
404.0
431.2
451.5
460.0
456.3
431.7
437.8
70.9
71.8
75.0
77.7
79.3
81.0
82.8
80.1
81.7
Financial Activities
481.1
491.8
510.3
535.8
552.6
547.2
521.9
482.8
463.5
Real Estate & Rent
154.5
157.7
166.5
176.6
182.4
178.1
169.8
155.2
151.3
Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining
Mgmt. of Co.
Fin. & Insurance
326.6
334.1
343.8
359.1
370.2
369.1
352.1
327.6
312.2
Edu. & Health Service
884.9
917.5
944.7
967.8
993.5
1024.0
1045.5
1057.2
1089.9
Education Services
101.5
110.0
118.7
124.6
128.3
134.1
138.0
141.7
146.5
Health Services
783.4
807.5
826.0
843.3
865.3
890.0
907.5
915.5
943.4
Leisure & Hospitality
855.9
871.6
909.3
933.7
947.2
965.9
952.6
909.9
888.5
Other Services
315.3
322.3
329.4
334.9
338.0
345.6
335.4
312.7
311.5
1039.2
1053.0
1066.3
1081.1
1099.2
1122.6
1126.9
1117.5
1117.6
Federal Gov't.
122.2
126.3
126.8
128.7
127.7
128.0
129.7
132.4
137.6
State & Local Gov't
917.0
926.8
939.5
952.4
971.5
994.6
997.2
985.1
979.9
Government
Continued
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
17
F l o rida Summary T ab l e s Table 4. Employment Annual 2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm
7302.5
7525.7
7754.9
7943.3
8108.6
8278.1
8425.9
8553.1
8690.4
8829.4
Manufacturing
327.1
343.3
354.6
358.9
358.5
356.2
353.7
351.7
349.1
346.7
218.9
234.5
246.4
251.9
252.7
251.1
249.2
247.9
246.2
244.5
9.6
10.8
11.3
11.3
11.1
11.1
11.1
11.2
11.3
11.3
Computer & Electronics
43.7
43.3
44.9
45.9
46.0
46.0
45.6
45.4
45.1
45.2
Transportation Equipment
35.7
39.0
41.8
43.3
43.4
41.8
40.3
39.4
38.5
37.6
108.2
108.8
108.3
107.0
105.9
105.1
104.5
103.8
102.9
102.1
28.2
28.3
28.2
28.1
27.9
27.8
27.7
27.6
27.4
27.4
6975.4
7182.4
7400.2
7584.4
7750.0
7921.9
8072.1
8201.4
8341.3
8482.7
5.5
5.5
5.4
5.4
5.3
5.1
5.0
4.8
4.7
4.6
Construction
342.9
366.4
400.6
424.1
438.7
455.2
471.0
486.0
495.6
505.9
Trans. Warehs. & Utility
233.8
247.2
257.2
264.8
272.5
279.6
286.1
290.7
292.6
292.9
Wholesale Trade
319.3
333.4
344.7
352.7
359.6
364.2
368.3
373.3
378.5
384.7
Retail Trade
926.9
950.0
971.6
986.3
994.0
993.0
990.5
991.3
995.8
999.6
Information
139.8
143.4
146.5
148.2
150.2
152.6
155.6
157.9
160.1
161.5
Prof. & Bus. Services
1123.9
1184.6
1256.2
1331.3
1406.4
1492.1
1567.0
1626.8
1697.3
1767.6
Admin. & Support
582.1
622.2
676.2
737.1
801.0
875.6
937.9
981.1
1028.6
1070.9
Prof. Sci & Tech
458.0
476.3
491.4
502.4
509.9
517.2
526.2
538.7
557.8
580.8
83.8
86.1
88.5
91.9
95.5
99.3
103.0
107.0
110.9
115.9
Financial Activities
465.1
478.6
484.6
487.5
491.4
495.4
498.8
500.7
503.9
505.8
Real Estate & Rent
153.8
159.1
162.4
165.4
167.6
168.9
170.6
172.3
173.9
175.2
Fin. & Insurance
311.3
319.5
322.2
322.0
323.9
326.5
328.2
328.4
329.9
330.6
Durable Goods Wood Products
Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining
Mgmt. of Co.
1115.6
1144.5
1165.1
1188.3
1213.4
1247.2
1273.3
1298.2
1323.6
1350.6
Education Services
Edu. & Health Service
148.1
147.8
147.3
146.7
147.4
149.0
150.4
151.6
153.2
154.8
Health Services
967.5
996.7
1017.9
1041.7
1066.0
1098.2
1122.9
1146.6
1170.4
1195.8
Leisure & Hospitality
887.1
904.6
926.1
934.4
938.4
942.2
945.6
947.6
952.7
953.6
Other Services
314.7
316.4
318.1
321.2
324.0
326.2
328.1
329.3
330.7
332.2
1100.8
1107.8
1124.2
1140.2
1155.9
1169.1
1182.8
1194.6
1206.0
1223.8
Federal Gov't.
129.5
127.9
127.2
127.1
127.4
128.1
129.1
130.1
131.1
140.7
State & Local Gov't
971.3
979.9
996.9
1013.1
1028.6
1041.0
1053.7
1064.6
1075.0
1083.1
Government
18
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
Continued
F l o rida Summary T ab l e s Table 4. Employment Annual 2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm
8976.5
9149.7
9305.9
9436.3
9587.9
9746.6
Manufacturing
340.9
334.0
326.6
320.3
315.1
310.5
306.4
302.1
298.5
295.6
239.9
234.5
228.5
223.6
219.7
216.4
213.4
210.1
207.6
205.6
Wood Products
11.2
11.0
10.9
10.9
10.8
10.8
10.7
10.7
10.6
10.6
Computer & Electronics
44.4
43.1
42.0
41.3
40.9
40.5
40.1
39.9
39.8
39.7
Transportation Equipment
36.7
35.8
34.8
33.9
33.1
32.4
31.8
31.2
30.5
30.0
101.0
99.5
98.1
96.7
95.4
94.1
93.0
91.9
91.0
89.9
27.3
27.2
27.1
27.0
26.9
26.8
26.7
26.5
26.4
26.2
8635.6
8815.7
8979.2
9115.9
9272.8
9436.0
9589.7
9747.6
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.0
Construction
518.9
533.4
548.2
561.2
575.0
590.9
605.3
617.6
629.6
643.1
Trans. Warehs. & Utility
298.1
305.9
313.1
319.6
326.0
331.8
335.8
339.2
343.2
344.1
Wholesale Trade
392.8
402.9
412.4
419.9
426.7
433.1
439.8
445.9
452.4
458.3
Retail Trade
1002.6
1011.0
1019.1
1027.1
1034.8
1041.4
1050.1
1059.6
1067.1
1072.6
Information
163.4
165.9
168.4
170.3
172.4
175.2
178.2
181.5
185.4
188.8
Prof. & Bus. Services
1858.6
1950.4
2028.0
2087.1
2163.4
2244.8
2316.2
2392.3
2481.6
2569.2
Admin. & Support
1124.1
1175.4
1212.8
1231.7
1267.9
1308.8
1339.6
1374.6
1423.8
1472.7
Prof. Sci & Tech
613.3
649.2
685.6
722.4
758.8
795.4
832.0
869.2
905.3
939.7
Durable Goods
Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining
Mgmt. of Co.
9896.1 10049.7 10218.3 10385.8
9919.8 10090.3
121.2
125.7
129.5
133.0
136.7
140.6
144.6
148.4
152.5
156.8
Financial Activities
508.2
513.6
519.1
524.5
531.4
538.5
545.4
552.8
560.4
568.1
Real Estate & Rent
176.6
178.2
179.8
181.4
183.1
184.7
186.3
187.9
189.5
191.2
Fin. & Insurance
331.7
335.4
339.2
343.2
348.4
353.8
359.2
365.0
370.9
376.9
1368.7
1385.6
1403.2
1420.0
1436.5
1452.9
1470.2
1488.6
1507.8
1525.9
156.9
159.6
161.8
163.4
165.3
167.4
169.4
171.2
173.4
175.7
1211.9
1226.0
1241.4
1256.6
1271.1
1285.4
1300.8
1317.4
1334.4
1350.2
Leisure & Hospitality
957.1
964.5
970.9
975.8
981.2
988.4
997.4
1006.8
1017.1
1024.1
Other Services
335.9
340.7
344.9
349.1
354.0
357.5
360.2
362.9
365.7
368.7
1226.7
1237.3
1247.6
1257.0
1267.2
1277.3
1286.9
1296.3
1305.4
1323.4
135.2
136.6
137.7
138.8
139.8
140.9
142.0
143.1
144.3
155.1
1091.5
1100.7
1109.9
1118.2
1127.3
1136.4
1144.9
1153.1
1161.1
1168.3
Edu. & Health Service Education Services Health Services
Government Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't
Continued
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
19
F l o rida Summary T ab l e s Table 4. Employment Annual 2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm Manufacturing
10571.5 10787.6 10963.8 11106.4 11239.4 11389.2 11535.8 11662.4 11796.4 11927.2 293.2
290.6
287.5
284.6
281.5
278.7
276.1
273.8
272.5
271.9
204.1
202.3
200.1
198.0
195.8
194.0
192.3
191.0
190.5
190.5
Wood Products
10.7
10.8
10.9
10.8
10.8
10.8
10.8
10.8
10.9
10.9
Computer & Electronics
39.7
39.7
39.9
40.1
40.3
40.6
41.0
41.4
41.8
42.3
Transportation Equipment
29.5
28.6
27.8
27.1
26.5
25.9
25.3
24.8
24.3
23.8
Nondurables
89.0
88.2
87.4
86.6
85.7
84.7
83.8
82.9
82.1
81.4
26.1
26.0
25.8
25.7
25.6
25.4
25.3
25.1
25.0
24.8
Durable Goods
Foods Non-Manufacturing
10278.3 10497.0 10676.3 10821.9 10957.9 11110.5 11259.8 11388.6 11523.8 11655.3
Mining
4.0
4.1
4.0
4.0
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
Construction
661.6
681.2
700.6
714.8
727.7
741.7
757.1
771.4
786.4
798.4
Trans. Warehs. & Utility
345.1
345.6
346.4
346.3
345.6
345.0
343.5
341.8
339.8
336.9
Wholesale Trade
461.8
463.2
463.9
463.7
463.2
463.0
462.2
461.2
460.9
461.8
Retail Trade
1081.4
1090.4
1100.2
1108.4
1115.8
1124.1
1132.9
1142.6
1152.8
1159.6
Information
193.6
199.4
204.3
207.8
211.0
214.7
219.2
223.7
228.0
231.2
Prof. & Bus. Services
2677.3
2803.4
2897.6
2974.5
3047.6
3132.4
3216.6
3282.7
3351.5
3427.8
Admin. & Support
1539.3
1623.3
1676.4
1710.7
1743.1
1786.6
1829.1
1853.1
1878.6
1903.9
Prof. Sci & Tech
976.7
1014.2
1050.8
1089.0
1125.2
1161.8
1198.8
1236.2
1274.7
1320.8
161.4
165.9
170.4
174.8
179.3
183.9
188.7
193.4
198.3
203.2
Financial Activities
Mgmt. of Co.
577.1
586.4
594.9
602.9
610.6
619.1
626.7
634.0
641.1
644.9
Real Estate & Rent
193.0
194.9
196.7
198.4
200.1
201.9
203.6
205.3
207.0
208.5
Fin. & Insurance
384.0
391.6
398.3
404.5
410.5
417.1
423.1
428.7
434.1
436.4
1546.2
1569.5
1588.2
1603.6
1616.2
1630.6
1643.6
1658.5
1673.0
1686.5
178.1
180.9
183.4
185.4
187.0
188.9
191.2
192.9
194.9
195.6
Health Services
1368.1
1388.5
1404.8
1418.2
1429.2
1441.7
1452.4
1465.6
1478.1
1491.0
Leisure & Hospitality
1035.8
1048.6
1060.6
1070.8
1081.9
1092.1
1102.1
1110.1
1121.0
1124.8
371.1
373.6
376.4
379.1
381.4
384.2
386.1
387.5
389.0
389.7
1323.4
1331.7
1339.0
1346.0
1353.0
1359.7
1366.0
1371.1
1376.6
1389.7
147.8
149.0
150.1
151.3
152.4
153.6
154.7
155.9
156.9
166.4
1175.6
1182.7
1188.9
1194.8
1200.6
1206.1
1211.2
1215.2
1219.7
1223.3
Edu. & Health Service Education Services
Other Services Government Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't
20
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
F l o rida Summary T ab l e s Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly* 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4
Billions Current Dollars Personal Income
709.1
729.6
739.1
747.8
757.4
764.8
774.1
784.3
795.1
806.5
817.6
828.2
837.6
848.9
860.1
871.5
Wages & Salaries
322.8
326.8
328.6
332.0
335.9
339.6
343.9
348.6
353.6
358.2
363.3
368.7
374.6
380.2
385.6
390.9
Other Labor Income
74.1
74.6
75.3
75.7
77.7
78.8
80.0
81.3
82.9
84.2
85.5
86.9
88.4
89.8
91.0
92.4
Nonfarm
40.6
40.0
40.8
41.3
42.0
42.8
43.4
44.2
44.6
45.3
45.7
46.4
46.8
47.5
48.1
48.9
0.5
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
Property Income
176.0
177.2
182.3
185.9
189.1
190.5
193.2
196.8
201.2
206.0
210.6
214.3
218.1
221.6
225.4
229.4
Transfer Payments
Farm
143.7
160.0
162.2
163.4
165.2
166.2
167.2
167.9
169.3
170.0
170.6
170.9
171.5
172.6
173.3
174.2
Social Insurance
50.5
51.3
52.5
53.0
55.0
55.7
56.3
57.0
59.0
59.8
60.8
61.7
64.6
65.5
66.2
67.2
Personal Income
575.6
591.5
597.0
602.0
606.9
610.3
615.0
620.5
626.2
632.4
638.1
643.2
647.4
653.1
658.8
664.5
Wages & Salaries
262.0
264.9
265.4
267.3
269.2
271.0
273.3
275.8
278.5
280.9
283.5
286.4
289.5
292.5
295.3
298.1
Other Labor Income
60.2
60.5
60.8
61.0
62.2
62.9
63.6
64.3
65.3
66.0
66.7
67.5
68.3
69.1
69.7
70.4
Nonfarm
32.9
32.4
32.9
33.3
33.7
34.2
34.5
34.9
35.2
35.5
35.7
36.0
36.2
36.6
36.9
37.3
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
Property Income
142.8
143.7
147.2
149.6
151.5
152.0
153.5
155.7
158.5
161.5
164.4
166.4
168.6
170.4
172.7
174.9
Transfer Payments
116.6
129.7
131.0
131.6
132.4
132.6
132.8
132.9
133.3
133.3
133.2
132.8
132.6
132.8
132.8
132.8
41.0
41.6
42.4
42.7
44.0
44.4
44.7
45.1
46.5
46.9
47.4
47.9
49.9
50.4
50.7
51.2
Billions 2000 $
Farm
Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations
774.3
721.2
720.3
820.0
890.9
Retail Sales (Billions $)
252.6
253.5
257.5
262.8
266.9
964.1 1034.7 1106.4 1171.1 1198.6 1235.8 1257.1 1298.5 1332.6 1347.5 1359.7 271.0
275.8
281.6
286.3
290.3
293.9
297.2
300.4
303.7
306.5
309.4
Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)
205.0
205.5
208.0
211.5
213.9
216.2
219.2
222.8
225.5
227.6
229.4
230.8
232.2
233.7
234.8
235.9
*Quarterly at an annual rate
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
21
F l o rida Summary T ab l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Billions Current Dollars Personal Income
508.4
531.2
582.8
633.2
690.3
713.5
719.7
700.4
731.4
Wages & Salaries
250.9
264.5
285.6
310.3
333.1
343.3
339.1
322.1
327.5
Other Labor Income
53.3
59.2
63.3
69.5
72.9
73.6
73.7
73.3
74.9
Nonfarm
34.8
36.3
39.6
42.0
45.1
42.6
41.7
39.6
40.7
1.3
1.1
1.0
1.5
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.4
123.8
122.8
142.7
156.4
181.7
190.9
191.2
176.2
180.3
Transfer Payments
79.8
84.9
91.3
98.1
104.4
111.5
122.6
136.4
157.3
Social Insurance
37.2
39.0
42.3
46.2
49.9
51.1
51.2
49.5
51.8
Farm Property Income
Billions 2000 $ Personal Income
492.2
504.0
538.8
568.4
603.1
607.2
592.6
575.6
591.5
Wages & Salaries
242.9
251.0
264.1
278.6
291.0
292.2
279.2
264.7
264.9
Other Labor Income
51.6
56.1
58.6
62.4
63.7
62.6
60.7
60.2
60.6
Nonfarm
33.7
34.5
36.6
37.7
39.4
36.3
34.4
32.5
32.9
1.3
1.0
0.9
1.3
1.1
0.7
0.5
0.4
0.3
119.9
116.5
131.9
140.4
158.7
162.4
157.4
144.8
145.8
Transfer Payments
77.3
80.5
84.4
88.0
91.2
94.9
100.9
112.1
127.2
Social Insurance
36.0
37.0
39.1
41.5
43.6
43.5
42.2
40.7
41.9
1302.6
1397.3
1442.7
1449.7
1416.7
1242.2
952.0
734.8
758.9
Retail Sales (Billions $)
196.6
207.4
226.2
246.6
265.3
269.8
262.3
242.6
256.6
Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)
190.4
196.7
209.1
221.4
231.8
229.6
216.0
199.4
207.5
Farm Property Income
New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations
22
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
Continued
F l o rida Summary T ab l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Billions Current Dollars Personal Income
770.2
811.8
854.5
910.1
967.2
1027.0
1088.1
1150.0
1218.4
1290.5
Wages & Salaries
342.0
360.9
382.8
404.7
426.7
450.1
473.2
496.1
520.6
545.5
Other Labor Income
79.4
84.9
90.4
95.9
100.9
106.7
112.9
119.2
125.8
132.6
Nonfarm
43.1
45.5
47.8
50.8
53.4
56.7
60.1
63.9
68.0
72.2
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
Property Income
192.4
208.0
223.6
243.6
265.4
284.1
304.2
323.9
347.7
374.0
Transfer Payments
166.6
170.2
172.9
181.6
192.6
205.4
218.4
232.3
246.7
261.9
56.0
60.3
65.9
69.5
75.0
79.4
84.2
89.1
94.3
99.8
Farm
Social Insurance
Billions 2000 $ Personal Income
613.2
635.0
656.0
685.2
714.2
743.7
772.8
800.6
832.3
865.4
Wages & Salaries
272.3
282.3
293.8
304.7
315.1
325.9
336.1
345.3
355.6
365.8
Other Labor Income
63.2
66.4
69.4
72.2
74.5
77.2
80.2
83.0
86.0
88.9
Nonfarm
34.3
35.6
36.7
38.2
39.5
41.1
42.7
44.5
46.5
48.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
Property Income
153.2
162.7
171.6
183.4
195.9
205.7
216.0
225.5
237.5
250.8
Transfer Payments
132.7
133.1
132.7
136.7
142.2
148.7
155.1
161.7
168.5
175.6
44.6
47.2
50.6
52.4
55.4
57.5
59.8
62.0
64.4
66.9
New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations
999.0
1215.7
1334.6
1404.3
1460.2
1502.9
1482.9
1467.8
1494.8
1536.0
Retail Sales (Billions $)
273.8
291.9
305.0
319.8
339.4
358.8
376.7
395.3
415.9
438.9
Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)
218.0
228.3
234.1
240.8
250.6
259.8
267.6
275.2
284.1
294.3
Farm
Social Insurance
Continued
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
23
F l o rida Summary T ab l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Billions Current Dollars Personal Income
1363.6
1438.2
1512.8
1589.2
1671.3
1758.8
1850.6
1944.0
2041.9
2143.6
Wages & Salaries
572.2
601.8
631.4
660.6
693.2
728.3
764.3
802.1
843.3
885.9
Other Labor Income
139.9
147.7
155.7
163.5
171.7
180.7
190.1
199.6
209.9
220.6
76.6
81.2
85.9
90.2
94.9
99.5
104.4
109.6
115.1
120.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
Property Income
399.0
419.5
438.6
459.0
480.0
502.6
527.5
551.5
575.6
601.3
Transfer Payments
277.5
295.5
314.5
334.9
356.5
379.2
402.9
426.6
450.8
475.5
Social Insurance
105.9
111.9
117.8
123.7
129.9
136.6
143.6
150.7
158.3
166.1
Nonfarm Farm
Billions 2000 $ Personal Income
898.4
930.9
961.7
991.8
1024.0
1058.1
1093.3
1127.5
1162.7
1198.2
Wages & Salaries
377.0
389.5
401.4
412.3
424.7
438.2
451.5
465.2
480.2
495.2
Other Labor Income
92.2
95.6
99.0
102.0
105.2
108.7
112.3
115.8
119.5
123.3
Nonfarm
50.4
52.5
54.6
56.3
58.1
59.8
61.7
63.6
65.5
67.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
Property Income
262.8
271.5
278.9
286.5
294.1
302.4
311.6
319.9
327.8
336.1
Transfer Payments
182.8
191.2
199.9
209.0
218.4
228.2
238.0
247.4
256.7
265.8
69.7
72.4
74.9
77.2
79.6
82.2
84.8
87.4
90.1
92.8
1565.6
1585.6
1595.1
1612.2
1640.5
1662.6
1686.0
1713.0
1729.6
1762.8
Retail Sales (Billions $)
463.2
488.7
514.6
542.0
572.3
604.0
637.6
672.9
708.4
746.3
Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)
305.2
316.3
327.2
338.3
350.7
363.4
376.6
390.3
403.4
417.2
Farm
Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations
24
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
Continued
F l o rida Summary T ab l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
Billions Current Dollars Personal Income
2252.2
2368.7
2486.7
2606.1
2729.3
2859.8
2992.4
3128.3
3268.3
3415.4
Wages & Salaries
932.7
984.0
1033.5
1081.3
1129.8
1182.3
1237.1
1291.3
1347.8
1408.0
Other Labor Income
231.9
245.1
258.0
270.4
282.6
295.5
309.5
323.3
337.5
352.2
Nonfarm
126.6
132.7
139.3
146.4
154.0
162.1
170.4
179.1
188.2
197.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
Property Income
628.4
656.1
685.2
717.0
751.3
787.6
822.4
861.1
901.2
943.5
Transfer Payments
500.9
527.7
556.1
585.3
615.2
645.7
676.5
707.9
739.2
771.4
Social Insurance
174.3
183.0
192.1
201.3
210.9
221.0
231.5
242.7
254.3
266.5
Farm
Billions 2000 $ Personal Income
1235.6
1275.4
1313.6
1350.5
1387.7
1426.5
1464.2
1501.1
1537.6
1575.4
Wages & Salaries
511.7
529.8
546.0
560.3
574.4
589.8
605.3
619.6
634.1
649.5
Other Labor Income
127.2
131.9
136.3
140.1
143.7
147.4
151.5
155.1
158.8
162.5
69.4
71.4
73.6
75.9
78.3
80.8
83.4
85.9
88.5
91.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Property Income
344.8
353.3
361.9
371.5
382.0
392.9
402.4
413.2
424.0
435.2
Transfer Payments
274.8
284.1
293.8
303.3
312.8
322.1
331.0
339.7
347.8
355.8
95.6
98.6
101.5
104.3
107.2
110.3
113.3
116.4
119.7
122.9
1802.1
1830.7
1856.6
1886.0
1918.5
1961.5
2004.7
2040.8
2085.4
2123.3
Retail Sales (Billions $)
787.8
830.7
875.6
923.7
974.1
1027.3
1082.9
1141.9
1206.2
1277.6
Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)
432.2
447.3
462.5
478.6
495.3
512.4
529.9
547.9
567.5
589.3
Nonfarm Farm
Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
25
rida Federal Government Employment (Thousands)
July 2010
F l o rida F O R E C A S T
CHARTS
006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038
F l o rida C hart s
Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate 14.0%
(percent)
12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate
Florida Construction Employment 900.0
(Thousands)
800.0 700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
27
F l o rida C hart s
Florida Education & Health Services Employment (Thousands)
1800.0 1600.0 1400.0 1200.0 1000.0 800.0 600.0
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038
Florida Federal Government Employment 190.0 180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0
28
(Thousands)
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
F l o rida C hart s
Florida Financial Activities Employment 650.0
(Thousands)
600.0 550.0 500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038
Florida Gross State Product 15%
(percent ch. year ago)
11% 7% 2% -2% -6%
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 FL Gross State Product
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
29
F l o rida C hart s
Florida Housing Starts (Thousands)
300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 Total Private Housing Starts
Florida Information Employment (Thousands)
240.0 220.0 200.0 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0
30
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
F l o rida C hart s
Florida Manufacturing Employment 500.0
(Thousands)
450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0 250.0
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038
New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations 60%
(percent ch. year ago)
40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60%
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
31
F l o rida C hart s
Florida Employment (Thousands)
12000.0 11000.0 10000.0 9000.0 8000.0 7000.0 6000.0 5000.0
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 Wage & Salary Employment
Florida Personal Income (percent ch. year ago)
8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6%
32
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
F l o rida C hart s
Florida Population 30000.0
(Thousands)
25000.0 20000.0 15000.0 10000.0
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038
Florida Professional & Business Services Employment 3500.0
(Thousands)
3000.0 2500.0 2000.0 1500.0 1000.0 500.0 0.0
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
33
F l o rida C hart s
Florida Real Gross State Product (percent ch. year ago)
10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6%
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038
Florida State & Local Government Employment (Thousands)
1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0 700.0
34
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
F l o rida C hart s
Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment 2000.0
(Thousands)
1900.0 1800.0 1700.0 1600.0 1500.0 1400.0 1300.0
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038
Florida Unemployment Rate 14.0%
(percent)
12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 Unemployment Rate
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
35
F l o rida Ne w s Summarie s Florida’s road building fund faces cuts •
• • •
The Florida Legislature may take the funds from the state Transportation Trust Fund, an amount of nearly $460 million, to increase the state’s general revenue fund. The Transportation Trust Fund contains money collected from gas taxes and tag and title fees.
State lawmakers are anticipating a $3.2 billion budget shortfall. Action needs to be taken, as the budget must be balanced.
The House recommends that money be taken from various other funds as well. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, April 20, 2010
Crist signs bill finalizing $6.8B Seminole Tribe gambling compact • • •
Governor Charlie Crist has signed into law a gambling agreement between the state and the Seminole Tribe of Florida.
The compact is valued at $6.8 billion, generating an average of $340 million annually for the next 20 years, all earmarked for education.
The law would allow casino-style gambling on reservation land, while restricting it on non-reservation land. Source: South Florida Business Journal, April 28, 2010
Prime Bank, Florida Bank of Commerce complete merger • • •
Florida Bank of Commerce, of Orlando-based FBC Bancorp Inc., and Melbourne-based Prime Bank completed their merger on May 4th.
The bank will operate under the name Florida Bank of Commerce, and now maintains assets in excess of $247 million.
Officials say that the bank is “well positioned” to grow, and has six branches in three Florida counties.
Source: Orlando Business Journal, May 5, 2010
Crist rejects bill he says would subsidize land developers •
•
•
Governor Charlie Crist vetoed House Bill 981, a bill that would have prevented property appraisers from reclassifying agricultural land when it is sold at three or more times the land’s agricultural assessment.
The bill would have allowed agricultural land owners to sell land at these high prices—a sign the seller is not maintaining agricultural use of the land—and still take the tax exemption reserved for agricultural land sales. Crist stated that the bill would have allowed developers to take advantage of a program intended to protect Florida’s farmers from financial pressures to sell.
Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, May 17, 2010
36
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
BP sends Florida $25M for oil spill recovery •
• • •
BP has sent $25 million to each of the four Gulf Coast states affected by the oil spill.
The funds are intended to help prepare for and recover from the disaster. Governor Crist expressed his dissatisfaction with the oil containment strategy, stating it was not “aggressive enough for his liking.”
Gulf Coast counties will be using the funds on techniques such as boom deployment.
Source: Pensacola News Journal, May 5, 2010 Florida No. 2 for delinquent mortgages •
• •
Florida’s delinquency rate of 14.65% puts the state at second highest in the country in mortgage delinquencies. Nevada has the highest delinquency rate, with 15.98%. Florida is expected to surpass Nevada by the end of the year, with a rate reaching upwards of 18.2%.
According to the latest data from TransUnion, the national ratio of borrowers 60 days or more past due on their mortgages was down in the 1st quarter of 2010 from the 4th quarter of 2009.
Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, May 10, 2010 Florida gets $66.6M for high-speed rail •
• • •
Florida has received a federal grant from the U.S. Department of Transportation to help develop a new high-speed rail system that will run between Orlando and Tampa.
The $66.6 million grant is part of the nearly $80 million in grant money Florida and four other states received through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. Officials say that the grant will cover the next six months of work on the project, completing 30% of the OrlandoTampa segment of the rail system. The Orlando-Miami segment is estimated to cost $8 billion.
Source: South Florida Business Journal, May 28, 2010 $100 million sought for oil spill research • •
•
U.S. Representative Kathy Castor, D-Tampa, is asking BP for $100 million in research funds.
The money would go to Florida universities for continued research on the Gulf oil spill. The amount was determined by scientists from a Florida university task force as the amount required to study the ecological impact. Castor notes that BP has already pledged $500 million to universities in the Gulf Coast states for spill-related academic research.
Source: The Miami Herald, June 3, 2010
July 2010
M etr o s
F l o rida F O R E C A S T
D e l t o n a – D ayt o n a B each – Orm o n d B each
P r o fi l e s
Out l o o k Summarie s
The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is comprised only of Volusia County. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway, which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500.
The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is expected to show modest growth in most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast. Personal income is expected to average 4.9 percent growth, while the per capita income level will be 27.9. Average annual wage will be the lowest level in the state at 38.5. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.7 percent. Population growth will be the lowest in the state at 0.2 percent. Gross Metro Product will also be one of the lowest in the state at 12,068.35 (Mill). The employment growth rate is expected to average 1.2 percent each year. The unemployment rate will be one of the worst in the state, averaging 11.1 percent annually. The Deltona MSA will experience the most growth in the Professional and Business Services sector, with an average growth rate of 3.1 percent annually. The Manufacturing sector will see the second highest growth in the MSA, at 3.0 percent annually. The Education and Health Services sector follows with an annual growth rate of 1.8 percent. The Federal Government sector is the only sector that will experience a decline, with an annual growth rate of -2.8 percent.
Quick Facts:
• Metro population estimate of 495,890 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 253,007 in April 2010 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database)
• An unemployment rate of 11.9% as of April 2010, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 30,147 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:
• Volusia County Schools – 8,273 employees • Daytona State College – 4,589 employees • Halifax Health – 4,232 employees
• Florida Hospital (all divisions) – 3,717 employees • Volusia County Government – 3,519 employees
M etr o Ne w s Summarie s
• Publix – 2,415 employees
Two decades later, Rose Bay to return to former health
• State of Florida – 2,423 employees • Walmart – 2,139 employees
• U.S. Government – 1,434 employees
• Embry Riddle Aeronautical University – 1,198 employees Source: Department of Economic Development, Volusia County
38
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
• The final phase of the restoration project of Volusia’s Rose Bay is ready to begin. The project is predicted to have a total cost of $50 million, with the third and final phase costing $10 million.
• The expansion of US 1 had prevented waters from flowing freely, resulting in dark, foul water. The US 1 bridge was rebuilt, as part of the restoration project, to allow the water to move without restraint between bays.
D e l t o n a – D ayt o n a B each – Orm o n d B each
• A new stormwater system was also rebuilt to prevent pollutants from streaming into the bay. Sewer systems are replacing septic tanks in nearby homes and communities. Source: Orlando Sentinel, May 4, 2010
Class size rules strain budget
• Volusia County School District is expected to limit their class sizes to 18-25 students. The schools could be fined anywhere from $2,610 to $3,015 for each student in a class that is out of compliance with new class size rules. • The schools will have to hire an additional 177 teachers at a cost of $10.5 million to meet the terms of the Florida law.
• The School Board has slashed more than $54 million from its budget over the last two years as state funding declined, the tax roll decreased, and enrollment fell. • Due to cuts in state funding, federal stimulus money, and property tax, income for Volusia County Schools will decrease by $4.9 million to an expected $413.6 million for the 2010-2011 school year.
Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, May 12, 2010
Congressman urges unity on jobs creation
• Volusia County officials remain divided on economic development issues. More than 40 businessmen and public officials attended the meeting called by U.S. Representative John Mica.
Embry Riddle honored by Boeing
• The Boeing Co. named Embry Riddle Aeronautical University, along with 13 other organizations, one of the winners of the 2009 Supplier of the Year Award.
• Embry Riddle qualified for this award when Boeing recognized the University as one of its 486 Boeing Performance Excellence Award recipients.
• Embry Riddle was the winner of the Academia category, due to the work of Professor John French.
Source: Orlando Business Journal, May 13, 2010
Schools in line for federal grants
• The Flagler and Volusia County School Districts have put themselves in the running for the second round of Race to the Top federal grants.
• Low teacher union participation has been cited as a reason why Florida was not granted funding during the first round. Florida was ranked 4th of 41 states in that round.
• Florida Governor Charlie Crist appointed Volusia County’s School Board Chairwoman to rewrite the application for federal funding. Source: The Daytona Beach News Journal, June 1, 2010
• One group, headed by a retired Chamber of Commerce president, supports creating an entirely new engine of economic development. On the other side of the divide is Volusia County Chairman Frank Bruno, who directs the county’s current program. • Mica departed with a project list including an east-side stop next to the commuter rail line and money to restore the DeBary Bayou. Mica hopes for unification of both sides.
Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, May 12, 2010 Institute for Economic Competitiveness
39
D e l t o n a – D ayt o n a B each – Orm o n d B each
Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0
0.2
0.4
(percent)
10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate
260.0 240.0 220.0 200.0 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0
Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product 30000.0
(Millions 2000 $)
25000.0 20000.0 15000.0 10000.0 5000.0
40
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Gross Metro Product Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment
Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%
0.6
(Thousands)
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Deltona Payroll Employment
Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0%
(percent change year ago)
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Personal Income
D e l t o n a – D ayt o n a B each – Orm o n d B each
Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
16.4 5.8 5.7 10.6 13.2 4.2 33.1 26.7 37.1 3.4
16.6 5.8 5.8 10.8 13.3 4.5 33.5 27 37.4 3.2
16.8 6.4 5.8 10.9 13.4 5 34 27.2 37.7 3.1
16.9 5.1 5.9 11 13.5 3.5 34.3 27.4 37.9 2.7
17.2 4.8 6 11.2 13.6 3.1 34.8 27.6 38.1 2.5
17.4 4.9 6 11.3 13.7 3.1 35.2 27.9 38.3 2.3
17.6 4.9 6.1 11.5 13.9 3.1 35.7 28.1 38.5 2.2
17.9 5.4 6.2 11.7 14 3.6 36.1 28.3 38.7 2.2
18.1 5.6 6.3 11.8 14.1 3.7 36.6 28.6 39 2.3
18.3 5.5 6.4 12 14.2 3.6 37 28.7 39.2 2.4
18.5 5.2 6.5 12 14.3 3.2 37.2 28.8 39.5 2.6
18.7 4.8 6.6 12.2 14.4 2.9 37.6 28.9 39.8 2.8
19 4.7 6.6 12.3 14.5 2.8 37.9 29.1 40.1 2.9
19.2 4.7 6.7 12.5 14.6 2.8 38.3 29.2 40.4 2.9
155.8 1.6 8 4.4 147.8 1.5 7.7 -1.3 29.8 0.5 5 22.7 2.2 2.3 3.9 6.9 1.7 17.8 7.2 32.7 2.5 20.5 -0.2 8.6 1.1 1.3 -3.2 20.2 -0.4
156.8 2.1 8.1 4.6 148.7 2 7.8 1.3 30.1 1.2 5 22.9 2.2 2.3 3.6 7 3.6 18 6.3 32.9 2.9 20.4 0 8.6 1.2 1.3 -1.1 20.3 0.1
157.7 2.3 8.3 5.5 149.5 2.2 7.9 4.1 30.3 2 5.1 23 2.2 2.3 3.2 7 3.8 18.1 4.6 33 2.8 20.5 0.4 8.6 0.8 1.3 -0.8 20.3 0.5
159 2.6 8.4 5.6 150.6 2.5 8.1 6.1 30.6 3.1 5.1 23.2 2.3 2.3 3 7.1 3.4 18.2 3.6 33.2 2.6 20.7 1.1 8.6 0.6 1.3 -0.8 20.4 1
160.2 2.8 8.5 5.5 151.7 2.7 8.3 7 30.9 3.5 5.2 23.4 2.3 2.4 3.3 7.1 3 18.4 3.5 33.4 2.1 20.9 2 8.7 0.7 1.3 -0.4 20.5 1.4
161.4 2.9 8.5 5 152.9 2.8 8.4 7.7 31.2 3.6 5.3 23.5 2.3 2.4 3.5 7.1 2.4 18.7 3.8 33.5 1.8 21 2.8 8.7 0.8 1.3 0 20.6 1.7
162.6 3.1 8.6 4.5 153.9 3 8.6 8.7 31.4 3.7 5.3 23.6 2.4 2.4 3.7 7.2 1.8 19 4.9 33.5 1.7 21.1 2.8 8.7 0.9 1.3 0.2 20.7 1.9
163.8 3 8.7 4 155.1 3 8.8 8.8 31.7 3.6 5.4 23.8 2.4 2.4 3.8 7.2 1.4 19.3 5.9 33.7 1.5 21.2 2.3 8.7 0.8 1.3 0.1 20.8 2
164.8 2.9 8.7 3.4 156 2.8 9 8.6 31.9 3.4 5.4 23.9 2.4 2.4 3.7 7.2 1.1 19.6 6.1 33.8 1.2 21.2 1.7 8.7 0.6 1.3 0 20.9 2.1
165.7 2.6 8.8 2.8 156.9 2.6 9.1 8.2 32.1 2.9 5.5 24.1 2.4 2.5 3.4 7.2 0.9 19.9 6.2 33.8 1 21.3 1.2 8.7 0.4 1.3 -0.1 21 2.1
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
153.3 -1 7.7 -0.3 145.7 -1 7.8 -9.7 29.7 -0.8 4.9 22.5 2.1 2.2 -5.6 6.8 -3.3 16.6 -1.4 31.9 2.1 20.5 0.2 8.5 0.5 1.3 -6 20.3 -2.3
153.6 -0.5 7.8 3.1 145.8 -0.7 7.7 -6.6 29.7 -0.1 4.8 22.5 2.1 2.2 -3.6 6.7 -2.6 16.9 0.6 32 1.9 20.5 -1.8 8.5 0.4 1.3 -8.4 20.2 -2
154.1 -0.2 7.8 3.8 146.3 -0.4 7.6 -6.3 29.7 -0.5 4.8 22.6 2.1 2.3 0.8 6.8 -1.1 17.3 4.1 32.1 1 20.5 -2.5 8.6 1 1.3 -8.8 20.2 -1.6
154.9 0.9 7.9 4.2 147 0.8 7.6 -5.2 29.7 0 4.9 22.6 2.1 2.3 3.2 6.8 0.5 17.6 7 32.4 2 20.5 0 8.6 1 1.3 -11.6 20.2 -1.2
11537.1 11602.6 11668.5 11755.2 11867.6 494.4 494.2 493.8 493.4 493.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 255.9 256.5 257 257.3 257.8 1.3 1 0.5 0.9 0.7 12.8 12.8 12.5 12.1 11.8 959 1109 1600 2087 2600 1078 1163 1430 1862 2326 -119 -54 169 225 274
11977 12078.5 12201.3 12324.5 12445.9 12538.5 12647.5 12751.9 12846.8 493.3 493.6 494.2 495 495.9 497 498.3 499.7 501.2 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 1 1.1 258.3 258.8 259.1 259.1 259.7 260.4 261.2 262 262.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.2 11.4 11 10.6 10.2 9.9 9.5 9.2 9 8.8 2995 3359 3678 3975 4092 4146 4305 4405 4421 2729 3004 3285 3525 3579 3591 3716 3783 3772 267 355 393 449 513 555 589 622 649
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
41
D e l t o n a – D ayt o n a B each – Orm o n d B each
Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
12.2 4.5 4.7 7.5
13.4 9.6 5.1 8.3
14.3 6.3 5.5 8.8
15.3 7.2 5.9 9.3
15.9 3.9 6.1 9.8
16 0.4 6 10
15.6 -2.6 5.7 9.9
16.2 4.2 5.7 10.5
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
11.6 2.5
12.4 6.8
12.8 3.2
13.4 4.4
13.5 1.2
13.1 -2.8
12.8 -2.8
13.1 2.6
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
26.2 24.8
28.1 26
29.3 26.3
30.9 27
31.9 27.1
32.1 26.4
31.4 25.8
32.8 26.5
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
29.8 3.9
31 4.1
32 3.4
34 6.1
35.1 3.3
35.7 1.6
36 0.8
37 2.8
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
157.6 3.1
164.4 4.3
170.8 3.9
173.9 1.8
172.5 -0.8
166.8 -3.3
156.5 -6.2
153.7 -1.8
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
9.4 -1.5
9.8 3.9
10.2 4.3
10.6 3.9
10.3 -2.6
9.1 -12.2
7.8 -14.4
7.7 -1.5
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
148.1 3.5
154.6 4.4
160.6 3.9
163.3 1.6
162.1 -0.7
157.7 -2.7
148.8 -5.7
146.1 -1.8
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
11.5 7.9
12.9 12.8
14.8 14.5
15.9 7.3
14.2 -10.4
11.3 -20.2
8.8 -22.2
7.9 -10
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
31.5 1.6
32 1.7
33.2 3.7
33.2 0
33.6 1.1
32.5 -3.3
30 -7.5
29.7 -1
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
4.6 24.3 2.6
4.7 25 2.3
4.8 26 2.4
5 25.9 2.4
5.3 25.8 2.5
5.2 24.8 2.4
4.9 23 2.1
4.9 22.6 2.1
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
2.3 -7.6
2.3 -2.5
2.2 -3.3
2.4 8.3
2.5 5.2
2.6 3.6
2.4 -9.2
2.2 -6.2
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
6.5 1.2
6.9 7.2
7.3 5.5
7.9 7.2
8 2.2
7.7 -4.1
7 -8.7
6.8 -3.4
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
16.4 6.8
18.1 10.4
19.6 8.1
19.4 -0.9
18 -7.1
17.4 -3.2
17.3 -1
16.7 -3.5
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
30.1 6.7
30.7 1.9
30.5 -0.7
30.5 0.2
30.6 0.2
31.9 4.2
31.3 -1.6
31.8 1.6
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
20 2.2
21.1 5.3
21.7 2.9
21.6 -0.4
22.6 4.6
22.5 -0.2
21 -6.5
20.6 -2.1
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
7.8 2.9
8.2 4
8.2 0.1
8.3 1.2
8.1 -1.7
8.2 1
8.5 3.8
8.5 -0.3
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
1.4 2.4
1.4 0
1.4 1.2
1.4 -0.6
1.4 -0.6
1.4 0
1.4 1.8
1.4 -4.3
20.7 0.5
21.1 2.1
21.8 3.6
22.8 4.4
23.1 1.4
22.2 -4
20.9 -5.9
20.4 -2.5
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
9917.4
10522.9
11360
11825.5
11769.9
11590.1
11163.9
11497.6
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
467.5 1.8
477.7 2.2
486.9 1.9
494.6 1.6
498.2 0.7
497.2 -0.2
495.7 -0.3
494.6 -0.2
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
226.8 2.7
232.7 2.6
242.7 4.3
247.6 2
251.2 1.4
254.2 1.2
253.9 -0.1
255.8 0.7
5.2
4.5
3.6
3.2
4
6.5
11
12.9
6170 4987 1183
6178 4777 1401
6360 5118 1242
4133 3100 1033
2209 1585 624
1364 1035 329
752 692 60
998 1004 -7
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
42
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
Continued
D e l t o n a – D ayt o n a B each – Orm o n d B each
Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
18 5.3 6.2 11.7
18.9 4.9 6.6 12.3
20 6.3 6.9 13.1
21.3 6.3 7.3 14
22.6 6.3 7.7 15
24 6.2 8 16
25.4 5.9 8.4 17
27 6.1 8.8 18.2
28.6 6 9.2 19.4
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
14.1 3.5
14.5 2.9
15.1 4.2
15.7 4.2
16.4 4.2
17.1 4.1
17.7 3.8
18.4 4.1
19.2 4
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
36.3 28.4
37.8 29
39.7 29.9
41.7 30.8
43.7 31.6
45.7 32.5
47.7 33.2
49.8 34
51.9 34.8
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
38.9 2.3
39.9 2.8
41.2 3
42.4 3.1
43.8 3.2
45.2 3.2
46.6 3.2
48.1 3.2
49.6 3.1
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
159.6 2.7
164.2 2.9
167.8 2.2
171 1.9
174.2 1.9
176.9 1.6
179.4 1.4
181.9 1.4
184.5 1.4
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
8.4 5.4
8.7 3.7
8.8 1.4
8.8 0
8.8 -0.5
8.7 -0.5
8.7 -0.5
8.7 -0.7
8.6 -0.6
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
151.2 2.5
155.5 2.9
158.9 2.2
162.1 2
165.4 2
168.2 1.7
170.7 1.5
173.3 1.5
175.9 1.5
8.2 6.2
8.9 8.6
9.3 5.1
9.6 2.7
9.9 3.1
10.2 2.9
10.4 2.6
10.6 1.4
10.8 1.5
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
30.7 3.1
31.8 3.4
32.4 2
32.9 1.5
33.1 0.7
33.3 0.4
33.5 0.7
33.8 0.9
34.1 0.8
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
5.2 23.3 2.3
5.4 23.9 2.4
5.6 24.2 2.5
5.7 24.4 2.5
5.8 24.4 2.6
5.9 24.4 2.7
6 24.4 2.7
6.1 24.6 2.8
6.2 24.7 2.8
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
2.4 3.3
2.4 3.6
2.5 2.3
2.5 1.9
2.6 2.1
2.7 2.3
2.7 1.8
2.8 1.8
2.8 1.4
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
7.1 3.1
7.2 1.3
7.2 0.6
7.3 0.8
7.3 0.7
7.4 0.6
7.4 0.3
7.5 0.6
7.5 0.5
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
18.4 3.9
19.4 5.8
20.5 5.4
21.7 5.7
23 6
24.1 4.9
24.9 3.6
25.9 4
26.9 3.9
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
33.3 2.3
33.7 1.3
34.3 1.8
35 2.1
36 2.7
36.8 2.2
37.5 2.1
38.3 2
39.1 2.1
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
20.8 1.6
21.2 2
21.3 0.5
21.3 0.1
21.3 0.1
21.3 -0.1
21.3 -0.2
21.3 0.1
21.2 -0.4
8.7 0.7
8.7 0.6
8.8 0.9
8.9 0.8
8.9 0.6
9 0.6
9 0.3
9 0.4
9.1 0.5
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
1.3 -0.5
1.3 0.1
1.3 0.5
1.3 0.8
1.3 1.2
1.3 1.3
1.3 1.3
1.4 1.5
1.5 12.4
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
20.5 1.1
20.9 2
21.3 1.9
21.6 1.7
21.9 1.4
22.2 1.4
22.5 1.2
22.8 1.2
23 0.9
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
12262.5
12696.2
13160.8
13628.8
14123.8
14588.2
15052.1
15552.6
16060.4
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
494.7 0.3
499 0.9
504.8 1.2
510.8 1.2
518 1.4
525.3 1.4
533.1 1.5
542 1.7
551 1.7
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
259.2 0.6
261.6 0.9
264.7 1.2
269.1 1.7
273.5 1.6
277.7 1.6
282 1.6
286.4 1.5
290.4 1.4
Unemployment Rate (%)
10.4
9.1
8.3
8
7.6
7.2
6.8
6.5
6.1
Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
3776 3348 428
4319 3716 604
4453 3734 719
4601 3748 853
4799 3834 965
4884 3861 1023
4923 3882 1042
5021 3927 1094
5078 3954 1124
Continued
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
43
D e l t o n a – D ayt o n a B each – Orm o n d B each
Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
30.2 5.6 9.6 20.6
31.8 5.4 10.1 21.7
33.5 5.1 10.5 22.9
35.1 5 11 24.1
36.9 5.1 11.5 25.4
38.8 5.1 12.1 26.8
40.8 5.2 12.6 28.2
42.8 4.9 13.2 29.6
44.9 4.9 13.8 31.1
47.1 4.8 14.5 32.6
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
19.9 3.8
20.6 3.5
21.3 3.3
21.9 3.1
22.6 3.1
23.3 3.2
24.1 3.3
24.8 3
25.6 2.9
26.3 2.9
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
53.9 35.5
55.9 36.2
57.8 36.8
59.8 37.3
61.8 37.8
63.9 38.4
66.1 39.1
68.3 39.6
70.5 40.1
72.7 40.7
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
51.2 3.1
52.8 3.1
54.4 3.1
56 3
57.8 3.1
59.6 3.2
61.6 3.3
63.6 3.2
65.6 3.3
67.8 3.3
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
187.1 1.4
190.2 1.7
193 1.5
195.5 1.3
198.2 1.4
201.1 1.5
204 1.4
206.9 1.4
210 1.5
213 1.4
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
8.5 -1.5
8.3 -1.9
8.1 -2.1
8 -1.8
7.9 -1.5
7.8 -1.3
7.7 -1.2
7.6 -1.2
7.5 -1
7.4 -0.8
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
178.6 1.5
181.9 1.8
184.9 1.7
187.5 1.4
190.3 1.5
193.4 1.6
196.3 1.5
199.3 1.5
202.5 1.6
205.6 1.5
11 2
11.2 2.2
11.5 2.2
11.7 1.9
11.9 2
12.2 2.6
12.5 2.1
12.7 1.6
12.9 1.6
13.1 1.8
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
34.4 0.9
34.9 1.6
35.5 1.5
35.9 1.3
36.4 1.2
36.8 1.1
37.2 1.2
37.7 1.2
38.1 1.1
38.4 0.9
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
6.4 24.8 2.8
6.6 25.1 2.9
6.7 25.3 3
6.9 25.6 3
7 25.8 3.1
7.1 26 3.2
7.3 26.3 3.2
7.4 26.5 3.3
7.5 26.7 3.3
7.7 26.9 3.3
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
2.8 1.6
2.9 2
2.9 1.9
3 1.5
3 1.6
3.1 1.9
3.2 2.1
3.2 2.2
3.3 2.5
3.4 2.2
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
7.5 0.4
7.6 1.2
7.7 1.1
7.8 1.1
7.9 1.4
8 1.4
8.1 1.4
8.2 1.4
8.3 1.4
8.4 1.4
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
28.2 4.8
29.5 4.6
30.6 3.7
31.4 2.7
32.5 3.4
33.7 3.6
34.7 3
35.8 3.2
37.1 3.6
38.3 3.4
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
39.6 1.4
40.2 1.4
40.8 1.4
41.3 1.3
41.8 1.3
42.4 1.3
42.9 1.3
43.5 1.4
44.1 1.4
44.7 1.3
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
21.2 0
21.3 0.5
21.4 0.3
21.4 0.2
21.5 0.2
21.6 0.4
21.7 0.5
21.8 0.6
21.9 0.7
22 0.3
9.2 1.2
9.3 1.6
9.5 1.4
9.6 1.3
9.7 1.5
9.8 1.1
9.9 0.9
10 0.8
10.1 0.9
10.2 0.9
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
1.4 -7.5
1.4 1.5
1.5 1.3
1.5 1.3
1.5 1.3
1.5 1.3
1.5 1.3
1.5 1.3
1.6 1.3
1.7 8.5
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
23.2 1
23.4 1
23.7 1.1
23.9 0.9
24.2 1
24.4 0.9
24.6 0.9
24.8 0.9
25 0.9
25.2 0.8
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
16572.5
17143.2
17710.5
18273.4
18879.2
19479.7
20062
20652.9
21266.4
21920.6
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
560 1.6
569.3 1.6
578.6 1.6
588 1.6
597.6 1.6
607.3 1.6
617.2 1.6
627.1 1.6
637.1 1.6
647 1.6
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
294.1 1.3
297.7 1.3
301.6 1.3
305.6 1.3
309.9 1.4
314.7 1.6
319.8 1.6
324.9 1.6
330.2 1.6
335.4 1.6
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
44
5.9
5.8
5.7
5.7
5.8
5.9
5.9
5.9
6
6
5016 3906 1110
5065 3948 1117
5079 3983 1097
5108 4038 1070
5169 4122 1047
5200 4162 1037
5111 4088 1023
4981 3975 1007
4890 3908 981
4899 3937 962
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
D e l t o n a – D ayt o n a B each – Orm o n d B each
Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
49.3 4.8 15.2 34.1
51.8 4.9 16 35.8
54.2 4.8 16.8 37.5
56.8 4.6 17.5 39.3
59.4 4.6 18.2 41.1
62.1 4.6 19 43.1
64.8 4.4 19.8 45
67.7 4.4 20.6 47
70.6 4.3 21.5 49.1
73.7 4.3 22.4 51.3
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
27.1 2.9
27.9 3
28.7 2.8
29.4 2.6
30.2 2.6
31 2.6
31.7 2.4
32.5 2.4
33.2 2.3
34 2.3
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
75.1 41.2
77.6 41.8
80.1 42.3
82.6 42.8
85.1 43.3
87.8 43.8
90.4 44.2
93 44.6
95.7 45
98.5 45.4
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
70 3.3
72.4 3.3
74.7 3.2
77 3.1
79.4 3.1
81.9 3.1
84.4 3.1
87 3.1
89.6 3
92.4 3.1
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
216.4 1.6
220.3 1.8
223.5 1.5
226.1 1.2
228.6 1.1
231.2 1.2
233.9 1.1
236.2 1
238.7 1
241.1 1
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
7.4 -0.7
7.3 -0.7
7.3 -0.9
7.2 -0.9
7.1 -1
7.1 -0.8
7 -0.8
7 -0.7
7 -0.3
7 -0.1
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
209 1.7
213 1.9
216.3 1.6
218.9 1.2
221.4 1.1
224.2 1.2
226.9 1.2
229.3 1.1
231.8 1.1
234.2 1
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
13.4 2.5
13.8 2.6
14.1 2.4
14.3 1.6
14.5 1.4
14.7 1.5
15 1.6
15.2 1.4
15.4 1.4
15.6 1
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
38.8 0.9
39.1 0.9
39.5 0.9
39.8 0.7
40 0.6
40.3 0.7
40.6 0.7
40.9 0.7
41.2 0.8
41.4 0.7
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
7.8 27.1 3.3
7.8 27.4 3.4
7.9 27.6 3.4
7.9 27.9 3.4
7.9 28.1 3.4
7.9 28.3 3.4
7.9 28.6 3.4
8 28.8 3.4
8 29.1 3.4
8 29.3 3.3
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
3.5 2.9
3.6 3.4
3.7 2.8
3.8 2.1
3.8 1.9
3.9 2.1
4 2.4
4.1 2.4
4.2 2.3
4.3 1.7
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
8.6 1.6
8.7 1.7
8.9 1.5
9 1.4
9.1 1.3
9.2 1.4
9.3 1.3
9.5 1.2
9.6 1.1
9.6 0.6
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
39.8 4
41.6 4.5
42.9 3.2
44 2.5
45 2.3
46.2 2.6
47.4 2.5
48.3 1.9
49.2 1.9
50.3 2.3
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
45.4 1.5
46.1 1.6
46.7 1.3
47.2 1.1
47.7 0.9
48.1 1
48.6 0.9
49.1 1
49.6 1
50 0.9
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
22.2 0.8
22.4 0.9
22.5 0.8
22.7 0.6
22.8 0.7
23 0.6
23.1 0.5
23.2 0.4
23.3 0.6
23.3 0
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
10.3 0.8
10.4 0.8
10.4 0.8
10.5 0.8
10.6 0.7
10.7 0.8
10.7 0.5
10.8 0.4
10.8 0.4
10.8 0.2
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
1.6 -5.4
1.6 1.3
1.7 1.3
1.7 1.3
1.7 1.3
1.7 1.3
1.7 1.3
1.8 1.2
1.8 1.2
1.9 7.1
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
25.4 0.8
25.6 0.8
25.8 0.7
26 0.6
26.1 0.6
26.3 0.6
26.5 0.6
26.6 0.5
26.7 0.5
26.9 0.5
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
22612.9
23330.8
24039.6
24741.5
25446.6
26199
26986.4
27767.5
28605.3
29509.8
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
657 1.5
667 1.5
677.1 1.5
687.1 1.5
697 1.5
707.1 1.4
717.2 1.4
727.4 1.4
737.7 1.4
748 1.4
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
340.7 1.6
346.1 1.6
351.4 1.5
356.8 1.5
362.2 1.5
367.6 1.5
373.1 1.5
378.6 1.5
384.2 1.5
389.7 1.4
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
6.1
6.1
6.2
6.2
6.3
6.3
6.3
6.4
6.4
6.5
4862 3919 943
4745 3812 933
4692 3782 910
4704 3815 889
4713 3852 861
4693 3870 824
4620 3835 786
4543 3785 758
4504 3767 737
4457 3742 715
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
45
G ai n e s v i l l e
P r o fi l e s
Out l o o k Summarie s
The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist counties and is located in the northcentral portion of the state. This metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history museum.
The Gainesville MSA is expected to show modest growth in all of the economic indicators measured in this forecast, relative to the state. Personal income growth will be one of the lowest in the state, averaging 4.5 percent, while per capita income level is expected to average 28.8. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.8 percent, while the average annual wage level will be 41.6. Population growth will average 0.8 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be the second lowest in the state at a level of 7,858.75 (Mill). Gainesville will see an employment growth rate of 1.1 percent annually. The Gainesville MSA will maintain the lowest unemployment rate in the state, at 7.2 percent. The fastest growing sector in the area will be the Professional and Business Services sector, with an average growth rate of 4.5 percent annually. This is followed by the Manufacturing and the Education and Health Services sectors, both with average annual growth rates of 1.9 percent. The Federal Government sector is the only sector that will experience a decline, with an annual growth rate of -0.4 percent.
Quick Facts:
• Metro population estimate of 260,690 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)
• Alachua County population estimate of 243,574 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Gilchrist County population estimate of 17,116 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)
• A civilian labor force of 143,303 in April 2010 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database)
• An unemployment rate of 7.5% as of April 2010, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 10,760 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:
M etr o Ne w s Summarie s
• Shands Hospital – 12,588 employees
County approves contribution of $625,000 to buy river land
• University of Florida – 14,723 employees • Veterans Affairs Medical Center – 4,317 employees • Alachua County School Board – 4,299 employees • City of Gainesville – 2,200 employees
• Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 2,056 employees
• North Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,700 employees
• Nationwide Insurance Company – 1,300 employees • Alachua County Government – 1,120 employees • Santa Fe Community College - 796 employees
Source: University of Florida and Gainesville Council for Economic Outreach
46
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
• Alachua County will use Wild Spaces Public Places money to help purchase 445 acres of land along the Santa Fe River as part of its Alachua County Forever conservation program.
• The property will be purchased for a total of $2.5 million, with the remainder of the funds provided by the water management district.
• The property is currently owned by Osceola Land & Timber Corporation. Source: The Gainesville Sun, April 28, 2010
G ai n e s v i l l e
Several new businesses defy economy in High Springs
• Five new businesses have opened in High Springs’ historic downtown district, an increase in store fronts of approximately 10%. • The new businesses include retail stores, a new restaurant, and a realty company.
• Business owners are confident that their businesses will see success in the new locations. Source: The Gainesville Sun, May 3, 2010
How Alachua County will handle school budget cuts
• Alachua County’s public school budget has been decreased by $1.4 million for the 2010-2011 school year, less than the predicted decrease of $7 to $10 million.
‘Forward Together’
• The University of Florida announced a $580 million plan to expand its cooperation with Shands Hospital in order to help establish UF as one of the country’s top medical research institutions. • Authors of the plan hope that the community will benefit from the ripple effect of the investment in the local economy.
• The expansion will create up to 300 new faculty positions and will focus on expanding research, education, and physical facilities, and improving patient safety and quality of care. Source: The Gainesville Sun, May 23, 2010
• Alachua County faces a cut in state funding of $37.38 per student, but district officials do not anticipate any teacher layoffs, and will hire about 150 new teachers in the fall.
• Superintendant Dave Boyd claims that Alachua County’s One-Mill referendum saved the budget, and without it the county would be facing a much greater budget gap. Source: The Gainesville Sun, May 6, 2010
City votes to issue bonds for Continuum
• The Gainesville City Commission will issue up to $82 million in bonds to fund the building of The Continuum, an apartment complex designed for the University of Florida’s graduate and professional students. • The project is expected to have a total cost of about $75 million.
• UF will have the option of buying the apartment complex after the debt on the property has been paid off. • Controversy exists over whether the apartments, built by non-profit Provident Resource Group, will be on the county’s tax rolls. Source: The Gainesville Sun, May 18, 2010
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
47
G ai n e s v i l l e Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0
0.5
Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate (percent)
14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%
1
2
2.5
3
Gainesville Payroll Employment 170.0
(Thousands)
160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate
110.0
Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product 16000.0
(Millions 2000 $)
14000.0 12000.0 10000.0 8000.0 6000.0 4000.0
48
1.5
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Gross Metro Product Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Gainesville Payroll Employment
Gainesville Real Personal Income 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%
(percent change year ago)
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Personal Income
G ai n e s v i l l e
Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
9.1 6 5.2 4 7.4 4.5 34.7 28 40.2 3.4
9.2 5.5 5.2 4 7.4 4.2 35 28.2 40.5 3.2
9.3 5.8 5.2 4.1 7.5 4.4 35.4 28.4 40.8 3.2
9.4 4 5.3 4.1 7.5 2.4 35.7 28.4 41 2.8
9.5 4.1 5.3 4.2 7.5 2.4 36 28.6 41.2 2.7
9.6 4.2 5.4 4.2 7.6 2.4 36.3 28.7 41.5 2.4
9.7 4.2 5.4 4.3 7.7 2.4 36.7 28.9 41.7 2.3
9.8 4.6 5.5 4.3 7.7 2.8 37 29 42 2.4
9.9 4.8 5.6 4.4 7.8 2.9 37.4 29.2 42.2 2.4
10.1 4.8 5.6 4.4 7.8 2.9 37.7 29.3 42.5 2.6
10.2 4.5 5.7 4.5 7.8 2.6 37.9 29.3 42.9 2.8
10.3 4.4 5.8 4.5 7.9 2.4 38.2 29.4 43.2 2.9
10.4 4.3 5.8 4.5 7.9 2.4 38.6 29.5 43.5 3
10.5 4.3 5.9 4.6 8 2.4 38.9 29.6 43.8 3.1
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
127.7 0.8 3.9 -1.1 123.8 0.9 4.4 -4.6 18.1 -0.4 2.5 13.1 2.4 1.5 -5 5.8 -1.3 10.7 2.6 23.2 3.9 13.2 0 4.5 0.6 4.5 5 38 0.3
127.5 0.1 4 1.2 123.5 0.1 4.3 -5.3 18.1 0.8 2.5 13.1 2.4 1.5 -1.9 5.8 -2.1 10.9 3.8 23.3 1.9 13.1 -1.7 4.5 -0.6 4.4 1.6 37.8 -0.7
127.7 0 4 4.1 123.7 -0.1 4.2 -6.7 18 0.3 2.5 13.1 2.4 1.5 1.2 5.8 -1.8 11.1 4.4 23.3 1.5 13.1 -0.2 4.5 0 4.3 -2.3 37.7 -1.2
128 -0.2 4.1 4.3 124 -0.4 4.2 -5.6 18 -0.4 2.5 13.1 2.4 1.5 2.8 5.9 0.3 11.3 6.8 23.5 1.6 13.1 -0.4 4.5 0.6 4.3 -11.9 37.6 -1.7
128.5 0.6 4.1 4.5 124.4 0.5 4.3 -1.9 18.1 0.1 2.5 13.1 2.5 1.6 3.5 5.9 1.5 11.4 7 23.7 2 13.1 -0.5 4.5 0.6 4.3 -5.3 37.6 -1
129.1 1.2 4.2 4.8 124.9 1.1 4.3 0.4 18.2 0.9 2.5 13.2 2.5 1.6 3.1 6 3.4 11.5 6.1 23.8 2.4 13.1 -0.3 4.5 0.8 4.2 -2.8 37.6 -0.5
129.5 1.5 4.3 5.6 125.3 1.3 4.4 2.8 18.3 1.7 2.6 13.3 2.5 1.6 2.7 6 3.6 11.6 4.4 23.9 2.4 13.2 0.4 4.5 0.5 4.2 -2.2 37.6 -0.2
130.3 1.7 4.3 5.8 126 1.6 4.4 4.6 18.5 2.7 2.6 13.4 2.6 1.6 2.2 6.1 3.2 11.7 3.4 24 2.1 13.3 1.2 4.5 0.4 4.2 -1.5 37.7 0.3
131 1.9 4.4 5.6 126.6 1.8 4.5 5.2 18.6 3.1 2.6 13.4 2.6 1.6 2.1 6.1 2.8 11.8 3.3 24.1 1.7 13.4 2.2 4.6 0.5 4.2 -1.1 37.8 0.6
131.7 2.1 4.4 5.2 127.3 2 4.6 5.9 18.8 3.2 2.6 13.5 2.6 1.6 2.3 6.1 2.1 12 3.6 24.2 1.4 13.5 2.9 4.6 0.5 4.2 -0.8 37.9 0.9
132.4 2.2 4.5 4.7 127.9 2.1 4.7 6.9 18.9 3.2 2.7 13.6 2.6 1.6 2.5 6.1 1.5 12.2 4.7 24.2 1.2 13.5 2.7 4.6 0.6 4.2 -0.5 38 1.1
133.1 2.2 4.5 4.2 128.6 2.1 4.7 7.1 19.1 3.1 2.7 13.6 2.7 1.6 2.8 6.1 1.1 12.3 5.6 24.3 1 13.6 2.1 4.6 0.4 4.2 -0.7 38.2 1.3
133.7 2 4.5 3.6 129.1 2 4.8 7 19.2 2.8 2.7 13.7 2.7 1.6 2.7 6.1 0.9 12.5 5.9 24.3 0.8 13.6 1.4 4.6 0.2 4.2 -0.7 38.3 1.4
134.2 1.9 4.5 3 129.6 1.8 4.9 6.7 19.2 2.4 2.7 13.8 2.7 1.6 2.5 6.2 0.7 12.7 5.9 24.3 0.6 13.6 0.9 4.6 0 4.2 -0.8 38.4 1.4
7586.2 262.7 0.6 141.3 2.3 8.7 494 514 -21
7619.6 263.1 0.6 140.6 0.8 8.6 564 523 41
7649.6 263.3 0.5 139.9 -0.6 8.3 812 583 229
7693.5 263.7 0.5 139.2 -2 8 926 676 250
7753.4 264 0.5 138.5 -2 7.7 1005 753 252
7811.1 264.4 0.5 137.9 -1.9 7.3 1017 806 211
7861.8 264.9 0.6 137.3 -1.9 7 1108 869 239
7925.9 265.6 0.7 137 -1.5 6.7 1156 923 232
7989.2 266.3 0.8 136.7 -1.3 6.4 1258 990 267
8052 267 1 137 -0.7 6.2 1309 1003 306
8095.6 267.7 1 137.3 0 5.9 1341 1008 333
8150.3 268.4 1.1 137.6 0.5 5.7 1392 1041 351
8202.5 269.2 1.1 137.9 0.9 5.6 1425 1059 366
8248.8 270 1.1 138.2 0.9 5.5 1431 1054 378
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
49
G ai n e s v i l l e
Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
6.3 3.4 3.8 2.5
7.1 13 4.3 2.8
7.7 8.2 4.6 3.1
8.3 7.9 4.9 3.4
8.7 5 5.1 3.6
8.9 1.7 5.2 3.7
8.7 -2.5 5 3.7
9 4.4 5.1 3.9
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
6 1.3
6.6 10.1
6.9 5.1
7.3 5
7.4 2.3
7.3 -1.6
7.1 -2.7
7.3 2.8
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
26.1 24.7
29.1 26.9
31 27.8
32.7 28.6
33.9 28.9
34.3 28.2
33.2 27.3
34.5 27.9
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
29.9 1.7
33.4 11.8
35.2 5.2
36.9 5.1
38.1 3
38.6 1.5
38.9 0.7
40 2.9
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
126.4 1.1
128.6 1.8
130.2 1.2
132.3 1.6
134.2 1.4
133.5 -0.5
127.8 -4.3
127.8 0
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
4.7 -5.4
4.7 -1.8
4.6 -0.2
5.2 12.2
5.3 2.2
5.1 -4.7
4.2 -17.4
3.9 -6.4
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
121.6 1.3
123.9 1.9
125.5 1.3
127.1 1.2
128.8 1.4
128.4 -0.3
123.6 -3.8
123.9 0.3
5.2 1.5
5.8 11.7
6.2 6.3
6.5 5.2
6.5 0.9
5.7 -13.2
4.7 -17.1
4.4 -6.1
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
18.1 1.1
18.2 0.4
18.9 3.5
19.5 3.3
20.2 4
19.7 -2.8
18.3 -6.9
18.1 -1.5
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
2.5 13.1 2.5
2.6 13.2 2.4
2.7 13.8 2.4
2.7 14.1 2.6
2.8 14.9 2.6
2.8 14.2 2.7
2.6 13.3 2.5
2.5 13.1 2.4
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
2 -1.3
2.1 6.1
2 -5.8
2 -2.9
2 2.6
1.9 -7
1.6 -13.3
1.5 -6.9
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
6.2 -6.4
6.2 -0.7
6.2 1
6.5 4
6.4 -0.5
6.2 -3.3
5.9 -5.3
5.9 -0.6
9.4 4.8
10.3 9.8
10.9 6.1
11.1 1.4
10.6 -4.4
10.7 1.8
10.4 -3.1
10.7 2.7
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
20.8 2.3
21.5 2.9
21.9 2.1
21.9 0.1
21.8 -0.5
22.4 2.9
22.5 0.4
23.1 2.8
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
12 -0.5
12.9 7.5
13.7 5.9
13.4 -2.1
14 4.1
14.5 3.7
13.5 -7.1
13.2 -2.3
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
4.5 5.4
4.7 3.3
4.5 -3
4.7 2.6
4.8 3.7
4.8 -0.5
4.6 -5.3
4.5 -1.1
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
3.3 3.6
3.4 3.7
3.7 5.9
3.7 2.1
3.8 3.1
4 5.2
4.3 5.3
4.5 6.4
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
40 1.6
38.8 -2.8
37.6 -3.3
37.9 0.9
38.6 1.8
38.5 -0.3
37.8 -1.7
38 0.6
6590.2
6863.6
7161.2
7393.6
7489.9
7555.1
7342.5
7576.6
241.7 1.1
244.6 1.2
248.9 1.7
254 2.1
257.3 1.3
259.3 0.8
260.9 0.6
262.5 0.6
126 0.8
126.5 0.4
130 2.7
132.3 1.7
136 2.8
138.9 2.2
138.5 -0.3
141.2 1.9
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
50
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
3.7
3.4
2.9
2.7
3
4.3
7.2
8.8
1706 1260 446
1839 1377 462
2227 1455 772
1895 1155 739
1377 763 614
1064 516 548
462 341 121
599 544 55
Continued
G ai n e s v i l l e
Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL
June 2010 Forecast
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
9.5 4.5 5.3 4.2
9.9 4.6 5.5 4.4
10.3 4.4 5.8 4.5
10.9 5.5 6.1 4.8
11.5 5.6 6.4 5.1
12.1 5.5 6.7 5.5
12.8 5.3 7 5.8
13.4 5 7.3 6.2
14.1 5.1 7.6 6.5
14.8 5.1 7.9 6.9
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
7.5 2.9
7.7 2.8
7.9 2.5
8.2 3.5
8.5 3.5
8.8 3.5
9.1 3.3
9.3 2.9
9.6 3.2
9.9 3.1
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
35.8 28.5
37.2 29.1
38.4 29.5
40.1 30.2
41.9 30.9
43.8 31.7
45.7 32.4
47.5 33.1
49.4 33.8
51.4 34.5
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
41.1 2.8
42.1 2.4
43.3 2.9
44.7 3.2
46.2 3.2
47.7 3.4
49.3 3.4
51 3.4
52.7 3.4
54.4 3.2
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
128.3 0.4
130.6 1.8
133.3 2.1
135.4 1.5
137.3 1.4
139.1 1.4
140.7 1.1
141.9 0.9
143.2 0.9
144.5 0.9
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
4.1 4.4
4.3 5.6
4.5 3.9
4.6 1.6
4.6 0.2
4.6 -0.3
4.5 -0.4
4.5 -0.3
4.5 -0.5
4.5 -0.4
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
124.2 0.3
126.3 1.7
128.8 2
130.8 1.5
132.7 1.4
134.6 1.4
136.1 1.1
137.4 0.9
138.7 1
140 1
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
4.3 -3.5
4.5 4.6
4.8 6.9
5 3.8
5 1.9
5.2 2.9
5.3 2.7
5.5 2.4
5.5 1.2
5.6 1.2
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
18.1 0.2
18.6 2.6
19.1 2.8
19.4 1.5
19.6 1
19.6 0.2
19.6 -0.1
19.6 0.1
19.7 0.2
19.7 0.1
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
2.5 13.1 2.4
2.6 13.4 2.6
2.7 13.7 2.7
2.8 13.8 2.8
2.8 13.8 2.8
2.8 13.8 2.9
2.8 13.7 2.9
2.9 13.6 3
2.9 13.6 3
2.9 13.6 3
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
1.5 2.7
1.6 2.3
1.6 2.6
1.6 1.6
1.7 1.3
1.7 1.5
1.7 1.6
1.7 1.2
1.8 1.2
1.8 0.7
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
5.9 0.8
6.1 2.9
6.1 1.1
6.2 0.4
6.2 0.6
6.2 0.5
6.2 0.4
6.2 0
6.3 0.3
6.3 0.1
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
11.3 6.1
11.8 3.7
12.4 5.5
13 5.2
13.8 5.5
14.5 5.7
15.2 4.5
15.7 3.3
16.3 3.6
16.8 3.5
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
23.6 1.9
24 1.9
24.3 0.9
24.6 1.3
25 1.6
25.5 2.2
26 1.6
26.4 1.5
26.7 1.4
27.1 1.6
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
13.1 -0.4
13.3 1.7
13.6 1.8
13.6 0.2
13.6 -0.1
13.5 -0.1
13.5 -0.3
13.5 -0.3
13.5 0
13.4 -0.5
4.5 0.5
4.6 0.5
4.6 0.3
4.6 0.5
4.6 0.4
4.6 0.1
4.6 0.1
4.6 -0.1
4.6 0
4.6 0.1
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
4.3 -5.7
4.2 -1.4
4.2 -0.7
4.2 -0.3
4.2 0.1
4.2 0.4
4.2 0.6
4.2 0.6
4.3 0.7
4.5 4.7
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
37.6 -1.1
37.8 0.4
38.2 1.3
38.7 1.2
39.1 1.1
39.4 0.8
39.7 0.8
39.9 0.5
40.1 0.5
40.2 0.3
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
7726.9
7957.2
8174.3
8410.1
8648.2
8900.3
9128.3
9351.1
9591.3
9824.3
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
263.9 0.5
265.9 0.8
268.8 1.1
271.8 1.1
274.5 1
277.2 1
279.9 1
282.7 1
285.5 1
288.3 1
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
138.9 -1.6
137 -1.4
137.8 0.6
138.7 0.7
140 0.9
141.2 0.9
142.3 0.8
143.3 0.7
144.5 0.8
145.9 1
Unemployment Rate (%)
7.8
6.6
5.7
5.2
5
4.8
4.5
4.3
4.1
3.9
Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
940 704 236
1208 947 261
1398 1041 357
1443 1034 408
1507 1033 474
1570 1044 526
1594 1041 552
1606 1042 564
1617 1039 578
1622 1034 588
Continued
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
51
G ai n e s v i l l e
Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
15.5 4.8 8.2 7.3
16.3 4.7 8.6 7.7
17 4.4 8.9 8.1
17.7 4.3 9.3 8.5
18.5 4.4 9.7 8.9
19.3 4.5 10.1 9.3
20.2 4.5 10.5 9.7
21.1 4.3 10.9 10.1
22 4.3 11.4 10.6
22.9 4.3 11.9 11
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
10.2 3
10.5 2.9
10.8 2.6
11.1 2.4
11.3 2.5
11.6 2.6
11.9 2.6
12.2 2.4
12.5 2.4
12.8 2.4
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
53.4 35.2
55.4 35.8
57.3 36.4
59.1 36.9
61.2 37.5
63.3 38.1
65.4 38.7
67.6 39.2
69.8 39.8
72.2 40.3
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
56.1 3.3
58 3.3
59.9 3.2
61.8 3.2
63.8 3.3
66 3.4
68.2 3.4
70.6 3.4
73 3.5
75.5 3.4
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
145.7 0.8
147.2 1.1
148.6 0.9
149.6 0.7
150.8 0.8
152.1 0.9
153.3 0.8
154.6 0.8
155.9 0.9
157.4 0.9
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
4.4 -1.3
4.4 -1.7
4.3 -2
4.2 -1.7
4.1 -1.4
4.1 -1.2
4 -1.1
4 -1.2
4 -0.9
3.9 -0.8
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
141.2 0.9
142.9 1.2
144.3 1
145.4 0.8
146.7 0.9
148 0.9
149.3 0.8
150.6 0.9
152 0.9
153.5 1
5.7 1.8
5.8 2
5.9 2
6 1.6
6.1 1.7
6.3 2.3
6.4 1.8
6.5 1.4
6.5 1.3
6.6 1.5
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
19.8 0.3
20 1
20.1 0.9
20.3 0.7
20.4 0.7
20.5 0.6
20.7 0.6
20.8 0.6
20.9 0.5
21 0.2
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
3 13.6 3
3.1 13.7 3.1
3.1 13.7 3.1
3.2 13.8 3.2
3.2 13.8 3.2
3.2 13.8 3.3
3.3 13.9 3.3
3.3 13.9 3.3
3.3 14 3.4
3.4 14 3.4
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
1.8 1
1.8 1.3
1.8 1.2
1.9 1
1.9 1.1
1.9 1.4
1.9 1.5
2 1.7
2 1.9
2 1.6
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
6.3 0.1
6.3 0.8
6.4 0.7
6.4 0.6
6.5 0.9
6.5 0.9
6.6 0.8
6.6 0.9
6.7 0.9
6.8 0.9
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
17.6 4.4
18.3 4.1
18.9 3.2
19.3 2.3
19.9 3
20.5 3.1
21 2.6
21.6 2.7
22.3 3.1
22.9 2.9
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
27.4 0.8
27.6 0.8
27.8 0.8
28 0.7
28.2 0.6
28.4 0.7
28.6 0.7
28.8 0.8
29 0.8
29.2 0.7
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
13.4 -0.1
13.4 0.3
13.4 0.1
13.4 0
13.4 0.1
13.5 0.2
13.5 0.4
13.6 0.4
13.6 0.5
13.6 0.1
4.7 0.9
4.7 1.2
4.7 0.9
4.8 0.9
4.8 1
4.9 0.6
4.9 0.4
4.9 0.3
4.9 0.3
4.9 0.3
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
4.4 -1.6
4.4 1
4.5 0.6
4.5 0.6
4.5 0.6
4.5 0.6
4.6 0.6
4.6 0.6
4.6 0.6
5 7
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
40.4 0.3
40.5 0.4
40.7 0.4
40.8 0.3
41 0.4
41.1 0.3
41.2 0.3
41.3 0.2
41.4 0.2
41.4 0.1
10078.2
10352.6
10620.4
10881.1
11162.9
11435.8
11694.8
11954.9
12223.7
12510.8
291.1 1
294 1
296.9 1
299.8 1
302.7 1
305.7 1
308.7 1
311.7 1
314.7 1
317.7 1
147 0.8
148.1 0.7
149.2 0.7
150.3 0.7
151.5 0.8
152.9 1
154.5 1
156 1
157.6 1
159.1 1
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
52
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.8
1602 1016 586
1620 1021 599
1636 1028 608
1636 1039 598
1651 1059 593
1656 1064 592
1625 1036 589
1579 996 583
1545 973 572
1541 977 564
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
Continued
G ai n e s v i l l e
Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
23.9 4.3 12.4 11.5
25 4.4 13 11.9
26 4.2 13.6 12.4
27.1 4 14.1 12.9
28.1 3.9 14.6 13.5
29.2 4 15.2 14
30.4 3.8 15.8 14.6
31.5 3.8 16.4 15.1
32.7 3.7 17 15.7
33.9 3.8 17.6 16.3
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
13.1 2.3
13.4 2.5
13.7 2.2
14 2
14.3 2
14.6 2
14.9 1.9
15.1 1.8
15.4 1.7
15.6 1.8
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
74.5 40.9
77.1 41.5
79.6 42
82 42.5
84.4 42.9
87 43.4
89.5 43.8
92 44.2
94.5 44.5
97.2 44.9
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
78.2 3.5
80.9 3.5
83.7 3.4
86.5 3.3
89.3 3.3
92.2 3.3
95.3 3.3
98.4 3.3
101.6 3.2
105.1 3.4
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
158.7 0.8
160.4 1.1
161.7 0.8
162.6 0.6
163.3 0.5
164.3 0.6
165.1 0.5
165.8 0.4
166.5 0.4
167.4 0.5
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
3.9 -0.6
3.9 -0.7
3.8 -0.8
3.8 -0.8
3.8 -0.9
3.8 -0.8
3.7 -0.7
3.7 -0.6
3.7 -0.3
3.7 0
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
154.7 0.8
156.5 1.1
157.8 0.8
158.8 0.6
159.6 0.5
160.5 0.6
161.4 0.6
162.1 0.4
162.8 0.5
163.7 0.5
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
6.8 2.3
7 2.3
7.1 2.2
7.2 1.4
7.3 1.1
7.4 1.3
7.5 1.4
7.6 1.2
7.7 1.2
7.7 0.7
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
21 0.3
21.1 0.2
21.1 0.3
21.1 0.1
21.1 0
21.1 0.1
21.1 0
21.2 0.1
21.2 0.1
21.2 0
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
3.4 14 3.4
3.4 14.1 3.4
3.4 14.1 3.3
3.4 14.2 3.3
3.3 14.2 3.3
3.3 14.2 3.3
3.3 14.3 3.3
3.3 14.3 3.2
3.3 14.4 3.2
3.3 14.4 3.2
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
2.1 2.2
2.1 2.7
2.2 2.1
2.2 1.4
2.2 1.2
2.3 1.4
2.3 1.7
2.3 1.7
2.4 1.5
2.4 0.9
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
6.8 1.1
6.9 1.2
7 1
7 0.9
7.1 0.8
7.2 0.9
7.2 0.8
7.3 0.7
7.3 0.6
7.3 0.1
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
23.7 3.4
24.7 4
25.3 2.7
25.8 2
26.3 1.8
26.8 2.1
27.4 2
27.8 1.5
28.2 1.4
28.7 1.8
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
29.4 0.8
29.7 1
29.9 0.7
30.1 0.4
30.2 0.3
30.3 0.4
30.4 0.3
30.5 0.4
30.6 0.4
30.7 0.3
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
13.7 0.6
13.8 0.7
13.9 0.6
13.9 0.4
14 0.5
14.1 0.4
14.1 0.3
14.1 0.1
14.2 0.4
14.1 -0.3
4.9 0.2
4.9 0.2
5 0.2
5 0.2
5 0.1
5 0.2
5 -0.1
5 -0.2
5 -0.2
4.9 -0.4
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
4.7 -4.3
4.8 0.6
4.8 0.6
4.8 0.6
4.8 0.6
4.9 0.6
4.9 0.6
4.9 0.5
5 0.4
5.2 5.5
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
41.5 0.1
41.5 0.1
41.5 0
41.5 0
41.5 0
41.5 0
41.5 -0.1
41.5 -0.1
41.4 -0.1
41.4 -0.1
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
12814.4
13125.7
13427.9
13723.1
14016.5
14331.1
14659.5
14980.4
15325.3
15697.8
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
320.7 0.9
323.8 1
326.9 0.9
329.9 0.9
333 0.9
336 0.9
339.2 0.9
342.3 0.9
345.5 0.9
348.6 0.9
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
160.6 1
162.2 0.9
163.7 0.9
165.2 0.9
166.7 0.9
168.1 0.9
169.6 0.9
171.1 0.9
172.6 0.9
174 0.8
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
4
4
4
1523 967 556
1483 930 554
1458 915 543
1453 920 533
1445 926 520
1427 928 499
1396 917 479
1367 903 464
1350 896 454
1329 888 441
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
53
J ac k s o n v i l l e
P r o fi l e s The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport. Quick Facts:
• Citibank – 4,600 employees • CSX – 4,400 employees
• Bank of America – 4,000 employees
Source: The Cornerstone Regional Development Partnership
Out l o o k Summarie s
Top Area Employers:
The Jacksonville MSA is expected to see strong growth in most of the economic indicators, relative to the state. Personal income will see an average growth rate of 5.3 percent, while the per capita income level will be one of the highest in the state at 33.6. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.0 percent, one of the highest in the state. Average annual wage is also expected to be among the state’s highest, at a level of 48.6. Population growth will be moderate at an average annual rate of 0.9 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 50,626.80 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to be 1.1 percent annually, the second highest in the state. Unemployment will average 10.5 percent in the MSA. The fastest growing sector in the Jacksonville MSA will be Professional & Business Services, which will see an average annual growth rate of 2.7 percent. Following that sector is Education and Health Services, with an annual growth rate of 2.5 percent, and then Trade, Transportation and Utilities with a 2.4 percent growth rate. The Construction and Mining and Federal Government sectors are the only sectors that will experience a decline, with annual growth rates of -0.3 percent and -0.9 percent respectively.
• Duval County Public Schools – 14,489 employees
M etr o Ne w s Summarie s
• City of Jacksonville Municipal Government – 8,828 employees
Jaxport faces $100M terminal repair bill
• Metro population estimate of 1,367,692 as of 2009 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • Baker County population estimate of 26,336 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Clay County population estimate of 186,756 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)
• Duval County population estimate of 857,040 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Nassau County population estimate of 70,576 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)
• St. Johns County population estimate of 187,436 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 687,125 in April 2010 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database)
• An unemployment rate of 11.0% as of April 2010, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 75,919 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database)
• Naval Air Station Jacksonville – 25,245 employees • Naval Station Mayport – 10,000 employees
• Baptist Health – 8,100 employees
• Blue Cross & Blue Shield of Florida – 7,000 employees • Mayo Clinic – 5,000 employees
54
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
• Jacksonville Port Authority CEO Rick Ferrin said $100 million will be needed to repair 30-year-old infrastructure over the next decade at the Talleyrand and Blount Island marine terminals.
J ac k s o n v i l l e
• Blount Island is down to five cranes from the eight that were in use just a year and a half ago.
• Two cranes were destroyed in an August 2008 storm, and another buckled due to age. A fourth crane’s mobility is limited and needs repairs.
Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, March 29, 2010
Mayport dredging plan OK’d
• Florida environmental officials tentatively approved plans to dredge Mayport Naval Station’s basin to make it 52 feet deep.
• The approximately 6.2 million cubic yards of sediment and other material will be disposed of at two offshore sites.
LPS confirms 350 jobs for Jacksonville
• Lender Processing Services Inc. will expand in Jacksonville by adding 350 full-time jobs.
• The city and the state provided nearly $3 million in incentives to bring the jobs to Jacksonville rather than other cities the Jacksonville-based company was considering. • The average wage is $44,807 plus $11,202 in benefits for the jobs. LPS has also committed to investing $1.5 million in capital.
• LPS will hire 175 people this year and 175 people in 2011.
Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, May 5, 2010
• The dredging is one step in the process required for a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier to be based at the naval station.
Laura St. building renovations announced
Jacksonville must cut $12 million by September or run out of cash
• The $70 million project is expected to create 975 temporary and permanent jobs.
Source: The Florida Times-Union, April 28, 2010
• Jacksonville Mayor John Peyton must find $12.5 million to cut by September or the city will be in violation of its charter.
• City leaders had planned on $22 million in salary and benefit concessions from unions that have not yet been realized. • Possible options for the city include laying off workers, taking fire engines out of service, closing libraries, implementing a 4% property tax increase, increasing city fees, and halting public works projects.
• Two development groups, Linea LLC and Capital City Partners of Tallahassee, are working together to develop four of Jacksonville’s most historic buildings.
• The Downtown Jacksonville project will include the development of the former Barnett Bank building into The Bank Hotel, a 120-room boutique hotel.
• The former Florida Life Building, Bisbee Building, and the Marble Bank, known as the Laura Street Trio, will be renovated into 98 loftstyle apartment homes, 17,000 feet of retail space, and a 248-space parking garage.
Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, May 25, 2010
Source: The Florida Times-Union, April 29, 2010
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
55
J ac k s o n v i l l e
Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0
0.2
Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate (percent)
14.0% 12.0%
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Jacksonville Payroll Employment 900.0
(Thousands)
700.0 600.0
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate
Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product 120000.0
(Millions 2000 $)
100000.0 80000.0 60000.0 40000.0 20000.0
56
0.6
800.0
10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%
0.4
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Gross Metro Product Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
500.0
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Jacksonville Payroll Employment
Jacksonville Real Personal Income 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0%
(percent change year ago)
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Personal Income
J ac k s o n v i l l e
Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
54 6 28 26 43.6 4.5 40.2 32.5 46.6 3.4
54.6 6 28.3 26.4 44 4.8 40.6 32.7 47 3.4
55.3 6.5 28.6 26.8 44.3 5.1 41 32.9 47.4 3.6
55.9 4.8 28.9 27 44.6 3.1 41.4 33 47.7 3.2
56.6 4.9 29.3 27.4 45 3.2 41.8 33.2 48 3.1
57.4 5.1 29.7 27.7 45.4 3.3 42.3 33.4 48.3 2.8
58.3 5.3 30.1 28.1 45.9 3.5 42.8 33.7 48.7 2.7
59.1 5.8 30.5 28.6 46.4 3.9 43.3 34 49 2.7
60 5.9 31 29 46.8 4.1 43.8 34.2 49.3 2.8
60.8 6 31.5 29.4 47.2 4 44.3 34.4 49.7 2.9
61.6 5.7 32 29.6 47.6 3.7 44.6 34.5 50.2 3.1
62.5 5.6 32.4 30 48.1 3.6 45.1 34.7 50.6 3.2
63.3 5.5 32.9 30.5 48.5 3.6 45.5 34.9 51 3.3
64.2 5.5 33.3 30.9 48.9 3.6 46 35.1 51.4 3.3
589.6 1.6 29 4.5 560.6 1.4 28.3 -1.1 130.6 1.5 27.2 71.9 31.5 10.6 4.6 53.6 0.9 85.6 4.7 88.1 2.8 64.4 -0.4 24.4 1.3 17.2 -4.3 57.8 -0.6
593.9 2.2 29.3 4.7 564.6 2.1 28.6 1.1 131.9 2.4 27.5 72.5 32 10.7 3.9 54.1 2.9 86.7 4.7 88.8 3.1 64.4 -0.1 24.5 1.2 17.1 -2.7 57.9 -0.1
598.7 2.7 29.7 5.3 568.9 2.6 29 3.5 133.3 3.3 27.8 73.1 32.5 10.8 3.2 54.6 3.5 87.5 4.3 89.3 3.3 64.9 0.7 24.5 0.8 17.1 -1.9 58 0.4
603.3 3 30.1 5.1 573.2 2.9 29.5 5.4 134.7 4 28.1 73.7 32.9 10.8 2.3 54.9 3.4 88 3.9 90.1 3.2 65.5 1.6 24.5 0.7 17 -1.4 58.3 0.9
607.9 3.1 30.3 4.7 577.6 3 30.1 6.2 136 4.1 28.3 74.2 33.4 10.8 2.1 55.2 3 88.6 3.6 90.7 3 66.1 2.7 24.6 0.7 17 -1.1 58.5 1.2
612.6 3.1 30.6 4.3 581.9 3.1 30.6 7.2 137.3 4.1 28.6 74.7 33.8 10.9 1.9 55.5 2.5 89.4 3.1 91.2 2.8 66.7 3.6 24.7 0.8 16.9 -0.9 58.8 1.6
616.9 3 30.8 3.7 586 3 31.2 7.9 138.5 3.9 28.9 75.2 34.2 11 1.8 55.7 2 90.2 3.1 91.6 2.5 67.2 3.6 24.7 0.7 16.9 -0.8 59.1 1.8
621.1 3 31.1 3.4 590.1 2.9 31.9 8.2 139.6 3.7 29.1 75.7 34.5 11 2.1 55.8 1.7 91 3.4 92.1 2.3 67.5 3.1 24.7 0.7 16.9 -0.7 59.4 1.9
624.9 2.8 31.2 2.9 593.7 2.8 32.5 8.3 140.6 3.4 29.3 76.2 34.8 11.1 2.1 56 1.5 91.9 3.6 92.6 2 67.8 2.6 24.7 0.6 16.9 -0.5 59.6 1.9
628.3 2.6 31.4 2.5 596.9 2.6 33 7.9 141.3 2.9 29.4 76.5 35 11.1 1.9 56.2 1.3 92.8 3.8 92.9 1.9 68.1 2.2 24.8 0.4 16.9 -0.4 59.9 1.8
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
580.5 0 27.7 -1.2 552.8 0.1 28.6 -9.1 128.7 2.3 26.3 71.6 30.2 10.1 -1.1 53.1 -3.1 81.7 0.2 85.7 2.4 64.6 0.3 24.1 1 17.9 2.3 58.1 -1.2
581 0.2 28 1.7 552.9 0.1 28.2 -7.2 128.8 1.7 26.3 71.7 30.2 10.3 -0.1 52.6 -3.7 82.8 1 86.1 1.9 64.5 1 24.2 0.9 17.6 0.5 57.9 -1.3
582.8 0.4 28.2 3.8 554.5 0.2 28 -6 129.1 0.8 26.4 71.7 30.5 10.4 1.8 52.7 -2.3 83.9 2 86.4 1.9 64.4 0.1 24.3 1.7 17.4 -1.3 57.8 -1.3
585.5 0.6 28.6 4.1 556.9 0.4 28 -4.8 129.6 0.7 26.8 71.7 30.9 10.6 4.2 53.1 -0.5 84.7 4.2 87.2 2.2 64.4 -0.1 24.4 1.4 17.3 -11.6 57.8 -1.4
46608.7 46879.3 47106.6 47405.7 47833.1 48268.4 48725.3 49201.6 49666.6 1343.6 1346.3 1348.9 1351.6 1354.6 1357.9 1361.6 1365.4 1369.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1 1.1 697.8 697.8 698.4 698.7 699.6 700.8 701.7 703.1 704.6 2.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 12.3 12.3 12 11.6 11.2 10.8 10.4 10 9.5 4117 4580 5850 7103 8170 9023 9910 10651 11454 4566 4769 5311 6270 7091 7857 8366 8968 9542 -449 -190 539 833 1080 1166 1545 1683 1912
50125 50478.5 50874.5 51269.6 51631.4 1374.2 1379.2 1384.6 1390.3 1396.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 706.2 708.5 710.5 712.8 716 0.8 1 1 1.2 1.4 9.1 8.8 8.5 8.3 8.1 11835 12080 12522 12817 12844 9660 9723 10028 10209 10151 2175 2357 2494 2608 2693
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
57
J ac k s o n v i l l e
Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
38.5 6.1 22.4 16.2
41.8 8.5 23.9 17.9
45.6 9 25.6 20
50.3 10.2 27.9 22.3
52.3 4 29 23.3
52.7 0.8 28.7 24
51.3 -2.7 27.3 23.9
53.5 4.4 27.9 25.6
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
36.6 4
38.7 5.8
41 5.9
43.9 7.2
44.5 1.3
43.4 -2.4
42.1 -2.9
43.3 2.7
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
32.2 30.5
34.1 31.5
36.4 32.7
39.2 34.3
40.1 34.1
40 32.9
38.6 31.7
39.9 32.2
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
37.9 6.4
39.6 4.2
40.8 3.2
43.1 5.5
44.2 2.7
44.7 1.1
45.1 0.9
46.4 2.8
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
563.2 0.5
578.5 2.7
603.7 4.4
624.7 3.5
633.7 1.4
621.4 -1.9
586 -5.7
581.1 -0.8
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
33.3 -3.1
33.3 -0.3
33.5 0.8
33.3 -0.8
32.5 -2.2
31.9 -1.9
28.7 -10.2
27.6 -3.7
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
529.9 0.7
545.2 2.9
570.1 4.6
591.4 3.7
601.2 1.7
589.5 -1.9
557.4 -5.5
553.5 -0.7
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
36.6 7.4
40.9 11.5
45.4 11
50.1 10.3
49.2 -1.6
43 -12.6
32.9 -23.4
29 -12
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
125 0.4
128.1 2.5
132.7 3.6
136.9 3.1
139.2 1.7
136.3 -2.1
127.4 -6.6
128.6 0.9
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
26.8 68.8 29.4
26.9 71.1 30.1
27.8 73.9 31
29.9 74.8 32.2
30.2 76.5 32.5
28.6 75.5 32.3
26.8 70.1 30.4
26.4 71.6 30.2
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
12.4 -6.1
11.6 -6.4
11.9 2.4
11.1 -6.8
10.2 -8.5
10.2 0.7
10.4 1.4
10.2 -1.6
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
57.6 -0.1
58.4 1.4
59.3 1.4
59.8 0.9
60.1 0.5
59.7 -0.7
55.5 -7.1
53.2 -4.1
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
82.8 -2.9
82.5 -0.4
88.1 6.7
95.4 8.3
94.3 -1.2
88 -6.6
82.3 -6.5
82 -0.3
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
64.7 1.9
67.9 5
71.3 4.9
74.5 4.5
77.9 4.6
81.7 4.9
83.6 2.3
85.5 2.3
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
53.3 1.6
56.3 5.5
60.4 7.3
62.1 2.9
65.9 6.1
67.3 2.1
64.9 -3.5
64.5 -0.6
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
25.7 3
26.4 2.6
26.8 1.5
27.6 3.1
28.2 2.3
26.6 -5.9
24 -9.8
24.1 0.3
18 1.6
17.8 -1.3
17.4 -2.2
16.9 -2.6
17 0.6
17.1 0.6
17.5 2.4
18.2 3.5
53.6 1.7
55.4 3.3
57.1 3
57 0
59.1 3.7
59.5 0.6
58.9 -1.1
58.3 -0.9
40314.2
42077.1
44904.4
46990.7
47132.1
46878.5
45535.5
46633
1198.5 2
1225.8 2.3
1252.6 2.2
1281.3 2.3
1302.6 1.7
1317.7 1.2
1329.7 0.9
1342.1 0.9
599.4 0.3
607.5 1.3
630.4 3.8
651.5 3.3
671.1 3
686.6 2.3
686.3 -0.1
697.3 1.6
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
58
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
5
4.6
3.7
3.3
3.8
5.8
10.1
12.3
15041 12820 2221
17882 13851 4030
23862 18638 5225
16770 12263 4506
10516 7488 3028
7074 5164 1911
4506 3487 1019
4504 4580 -76
Continued
J ac k s o n v i l l e
Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
56.3 5.3 29.1 27.2
59.6 5.7 30.8 28.8
62.9 5.6 32.6 30.2
67.1 6.6 34.5 32.6
71.3 6.3 36.3 35
75.6 6 38.1 37.4
80 5.9 40 40
84.6 5.6 41.9 42.6
89.5 5.8 43.9 45.6
94.7 5.8 45.9 48.8
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
44.8 3.6
46.6 3.9
48.3 3.6
50.5 4.6
52.6 4.3
54.7 4
56.8 3.8
58.9 3.6
61.1 3.9
63.5 3.8
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
41.6 33.1
43.5 34.1
45.3 34.8
47.5 35.8
49.7 36.7
51.8 37.5
53.9 38.3
56 39
58.3 39.8
60.6 40.6
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
47.8 3.2
49.2 2.8
50.8 3.2
52.5 3.4
54.4 3.5
56.3 3.5
58.3 3.5
60.3 3.5
62.4 3.5
64.5 3.4
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
587.9 1.2
605.6 3
622.8 2.8
636.4 2.2
647.5 1.7
658 1.6
667.2 1.4
675.4 1.2
683.5 1.2
691.6 1.2
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
28.8 4.3
30.2 4.8
31.1 3.1
31.5 1.3
31.5 0.1
31.4 -0.5
31.2 -0.5
31.1 -0.3
31 -0.5
30.8 -0.5
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
559.2 1
575.4 2.9
591.7 2.8
604.9 2.2
616 1.8
626.6 1.7
635.9 1.5
644.2 1.3
652.6 1.3
660.8 1.3
28.2 -2.7
29.8 5.6
32.2 8.1
33.8 4.9
34.6 2.4
35.5 2.7
36.6 3
37.7 3.2
38.5 2
39.3 2.1
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
130.3 1.4
135.3 3.8
140 3.5
143.1 2.2
145.7 1.8
147 0.9
148 0.7
149.1 0.8
150.1 0.6
150.8 0.5
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
27 72 31.2
28.2 73.9 33.1
29.2 75.9 34.6
29.8 77.2 35.7
30.4 77.9 36.8
30.8 77.9 37.7
31.2 77.7 38.5
31.6 77.8 39.1
32.1 78.1 39.3
32.6 78.4 39.3
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
10.6 3.6
10.8 2.4
11 2
11.2 1.1
11.3 1.4
11.5 1.7
11.7 2
11.9 1.6
12.1 1.4
12.2 1
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
53.4 0.3
55 3.1
55.9 1.6
56.5 1.1
57.1 1
57.7 1
58.2 1
58.6 0.6
59 0.8
59.4 0.5
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
85.2 3.9
88.4 3.7
91.5 3.5
95 3.9
98.2 3.4
101.7 3.5
104.7 2.9
107 2.3
109.7 2.5
112.2 2.3
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
87.6 2.5
90.3 3.1
92.3 2.2
94.5 2.3
96.6 2.3
99.4 2.9
101.5 2.2
103.6 2
105.7 2
108 2.1
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
64.4 -0.1
65.8 2.1
67.7 2.9
68.6 1.4
69 0.6
69.4 0.5
69.7 0.5
69.9 0.2
70.3 0.5
70.3 0.1
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
24.4 1.4
24.6 0.7
24.7 0.6
25 0.9
25.2 0.9
25.3 0.6
25.5 0.6
25.6 0.4
25.7 0.5
25.8 0.5
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
17.2 -5.2
17 -1.3
16.9 -0.6
16.9 -0.2
16.9 0.2
17 0.6
17.1 0.7
17.2 0.7
17.4 0.7
18.2 4.6
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
57.8 -0.8
58.4 1
59.5 1.8
60.5 1.7
61.4 1.5
62.1 1.2
62.9 1.2
63.5 1
64.2 1
64.6 0.8
47653.5
49429.6
51063.5
52857.2
54599.9
56395.7
58110.9
59853.1
61699.2
63502.8
1353.3 0.8
1367.7 1.1
1387.5 1.4
1410.5 1.7
1434.7 1.7
1459.5 1.7
1484.6 1.7
1510.1 1.7
1535.9 1.7
1561.8 1.7
699.4 0.3
703.9 0.6
711.9 1.1
722.7 1.5
734.6 1.7
746.2 1.6
757.7 1.5
769.4 1.5
780.6 1.5
791.3 1.4
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%)
11.4
9.7
8.4
7.5
7
6.5
6
5.5
5.2
4.8
Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
7537 6632 904
10963 9134 1829
12566 10028 2538
12899 10078 2821
13477 10212 3265
14204 10523 3680
14542 10670 3872
14666 10742 3925
14895 10830 4064
14980 10872 4107
Continued
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
59
J ac k s o n v i l l e
Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
99.9 5.5 48 51.9
105.3 5.4 50.3 54.9
110.7 5.2 52.7 58
116.3 5.1 55.1 61.2
122.3 5.1 57.7 64.6
128.6 5.2 60.5 68.1
135.3 5.2 63.3 72
142.1 5 66.3 75.7
149.2 5 69.5 79.6
156.5 5 72.9 83.7
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
65.8 3.7
68.1 3.5
70.4 3.3
72.6 3.1
74.9 3.2
77.4 3.3
79.9 3.3
82.4 3.1
84.9 3.1
87.5 3
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
62.9 41.4
65.2 42.2
67.5 42.9
69.8 43.6
72.2 44.2
74.8 45
77.4 45.7
80 46.4
82.7 47.1
85.5 47.8
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
66.7 3.4
69 3.4
71.3 3.4
73.7 3.4
76.3 3.5
79.1 3.6
81.9 3.6
84.8 3.6
87.9 3.6
91 3.6
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
699.7 1.2
710 1.5
719.3 1.3
727.4 1.1
736.2 1.2
745.2 1.2
753.8 1.2
762.4 1.1
771.5 1.2
780.8 1.2
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
30.3 -1.5
29.8 -1.9
29.1 -2.1
28.6 -1.8
28.1 -1.6
27.7 -1.5
27.4 -1.3
27 -1.4
26.7 -1.2
26.4 -1
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
669.3 1.3
680.2 1.6
690.2 1.5
698.8 1.2
708.1 1.3
717.5 1.3
726.4 1.2
735.4 1.2
744.8 1.3
754.4 1.3
40.3 2.6
41.4 2.8
42.6 2.8
43.6 2.4
44.7 2.5
45.9 2.8
47 2.5
48 2.1
49 2
50 2.2
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
152.2 0.9
154.7 1.7
157 1.5
159 1.2
160.9 1.2
162.6 1
164.2 1
165.7 0.9
167.2 0.9
168.2 0.6
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
33.3 78.6 39.9
34.1 79.3 41
34.9 79.9 41.9
35.5 80.5 42.7
36.1 81.1 43.5
36.6 81.5 44.2
37.1 82.2 44.7
37.6 82.9 45.1
38.1 83.4 45.6
38.6 83.8 45.6
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
12.4 1.3
12.6 1.6
12.8 1.6
12.9 1.2
13.1 1.3
13.3 1.6
13.5 1.8
13.8 2
14.1 2.2
14.4 1.9
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
59.8 0.7
60.5 1.2
61.2 1.2
62 1.2
62.9 1.5
63.8 1.5
64.7 1.4
65.7 1.5
66.7 1.5
67.7 1.5
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
115.3 2.8
118.5 2.7
121.1 2.2
123 1.6
125.3 1.9
127.7 1.9
129.8 1.6
131.9 1.6
134.3 1.8
136.6 1.7
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
109.5 1.4
110.9 1.3
112.4 1.3
113.8 1.2
115.1 1.2
116.5 1.2
117.9 1.2
119.4 1.3
121 1.3
122.5 1.2
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
70.6 0.4
71.2 0.8
71.7 0.7
72.1 0.5
72.5 0.6
73 0.8
73.7 1
74.5 1
75.3 1.1
75.8 0.7
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
26.1 1.2
26.5 1.5
26.9 1.3
27.2 1.3
27.6 1.5
28 1.1
28.2 0.9
28.4 0.8
28.7 0.9
28.9 0.9
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
18 -1.1
18.2 1.2
18.3 0.8
18.5 0.8
18.6 0.7
18.7 0.7
18.9 0.7
19 0.7
19.2 0.7
20.4 6.7
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
65.2 0.8
65.7 0.9
66.3 0.9
66.8 0.8
67.3 0.8
67.9 0.8
68.4 0.8
68.9 0.7
69.4 0.7
69.9 0.6
65428.5
67502.5
69569.7
71642
73842.8
75986.1
78056.8
80144.7
82292.2
84585.3
1587.5 1.6
1613.5 1.6
1639.7 1.6
1666.2 1.6
1693 1.6
1720 1.6
1747.3 1.6
1774.9 1.6
1802.6 1.6
1830.5 1.5
801.9 1.3
812.3 1.3
823 1.3
833.9 1.3
845.6 1.4
858.7 1.6
872.3 1.6
886.2 1.6
900.4 1.6
914.6 1.6
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.6
4.6
14816 10722 4094
14905 10803 4102
14908 10865 4042
14936 11017 3919
15101 11280 3821
15105 11383 3722
14739 11115 3624
14264 10722 3543
13931 10495 3436
13917 10554 3362
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
60
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
Continued
J ac k s o n v i l l e
Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
164.3 4.9 76.4 87.9
172.5 5 80.1 92.4
181 4.9 83.9 97.1
189.6 4.8 87.6 102
198.5 4.7 91.4 107.1
207.9 4.7 95.4 112.5
217.5 4.6 99.6 117.8
227.3 4.5 103.8 123.5
237.5 4.5 108.2 129.2
248.1 4.5 112.9 135.2
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
90.1 3
92.9 3.1
95.6 2.9
98.3 2.8
100.9 2.7
103.7 2.8
106.4 2.6
109.1 2.5
111.7 2.4
114.5 2.4
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
88.4 48.5
91.4 49.2
94.5 49.9
97.6 50.6
100.7 51.2
103.9 51.8
107.2 52.4
110.5 53
113.8 53.5
117.2 54.1
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
94.4 3.7
97.8 3.6
101.3 3.6
104.8 3.5
108.5 3.5
112.3 3.5
116.3 3.6
120.4 3.5
124.5 3.4
129 3.6
Personal Income (Billions $)
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
789.7 1.1
800.1 1.3
809.1 1.1
816.3 0.9
822.8 0.8
830 0.9
836.8 0.8
843 0.7
849.7 0.8
855.8 0.7
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
26.2 -0.8
26 -0.9
25.7 -1
25.4 -1
25.2 -1.1
24.9 -1
24.7 -0.9
24.5 -0.8
24.4 -0.5
24.3 -0.2
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
763.5 1.2
774.1 1.4
783.4 1.2
790.8 1
797.7 0.9
805.1 0.9
812.1 0.9
818.5 0.8
825.3 0.8
831.4 0.7
51.5 2.9
53 3
54.5 2.9
55.7 2.1
56.7 1.8
57.8 2
59 2.1
60.2 1.9
61.3 2
62.3 1.6
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
169.1 0.5
169.8 0.4
170.5 0.4
170.9 0.2
171.2 0.1
171.5 0.2
171.7 0.1
171.9 0.1
172.2 0.2
172.3 0
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
38.8 84.4 45.7
38.9 85.1 45.7
38.9 85.8 45.7
38.9 86.4 45.7
38.8 86.9 45.5
38.7 87.5 45.4
38.6 88.1 45.1
38.5 88.8 44.8
38.4 89.5 44.5
38.4 89.9 44.1
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
14.7 2.5
15.2 3.1
15.6 2.5
15.8 1.7
16.1 1.5
16.4 1.8
16.7 2.1
17.1 2.1
17.4 2
17.6 1.4
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
68.8 1.7
70 1.7
71.1 1.6
72.1 1.4
73.1 1.4
74.2 1.5
75.2 1.3
76.2 1.3
77.1 1.2
77.7 0.7
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
139.4 2
142.4 2.2
144.6 1.6
146.5 1.3
148.2 1.2
150 1.3
151.8 1.2
153.2 0.9
154.7 1
156.2 1
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
124.1 1.4
126 1.5
127.6 1.2
128.8 1
129.9 0.8
131 0.9
132.1 0.8
133.3 0.9
134.4 0.9
135.5 0.8
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
76.7 1.2
77.7 1.3
78.6 1.2
79.4 1
80.3 1.1
81.1 1
81.9 1
82.6 0.8
83.4 1
83.8 0.4
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
29.2 0.8
29.4 0.8
29.6 0.9
29.9 0.8
30.1 0.7
30.3 0.8
30.5 0.6
30.7 0.4
30.8 0.5
30.9 0.3
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
19.7 -3.6
19.9 0.8
20 0.7
20.2 0.7
20.3 0.7
20.4 0.7
20.6 0.7
20.7 0.7
20.9 0.6
21.9 5.2
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
70.3 0.7
70.8 0.6
71.2 0.5
71.5 0.5
71.9 0.5
72.2 0.5
72.5 0.4
72.8 0.3
73.1 0.4
73.3 0.3
87012.6
89471.2
91948.3
94426
96921.8
99564.9
102330
105087
108053
111160
1858.5 1.5
1886.6 1.5
1914.8 1.5
1943.2 1.5
1971.6 1.5
2000.2 1.5
2029 1.4
2057.9 1.4
2087.1 1.4
2116.5 1.4
928.9 1.6
943.4 1.6
957.9 1.5
972.6 1.5
987.3 1.5
1002.1 1.5
1017.1 1.5
1032.2 1.5
1047.6 1.5
1062.4 1.4
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.8
4.8
4.8
13759 10471 3288
13371 10113 3258
13181 9994 3187
13193 10069 3124
13200 10161 3039
13128 10211 2918
12898 10107 2792
12670 9966 2704
12558 9914 2644
12428 9851 2577
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
61
La k e l a n d
P r o fi l e s
Out l o o k Summarie s
The Lakeland MSA is comprised only of Polk County. It is located in the western center of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus. It is home to a few attractions, including Cypress Gardens and Fantasy of Flight. Also, the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians conduct spring training in Lakeland and Winter Haven, respectively.
The Lakeland MSA will show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 5.8 percent annually, while the per capita income level will be at 28.3, one of the lowest in the state. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.5 percent, tied for lowest in the state, and the average annual wage level is expected to be at 41.2, also one of the lowest in the state. Population growth is expected to be one of the highest in the state, averaging 1.4 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 15,090.28 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to be 1.3 percent annually. The unemployment rate for the metro will average 11.7 percent, the second highest in the state. The Professional and Business Services sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging a 2.6 percent annual growth rate. This is followed by the Education and Health Services sector averaging a growth rate of 2.2 percent a year and the Manufacturing sector at 2.1 percent. The Federal Government sector is the only sector that will experience a decline, with an annual growth rate of -1.6 percent.
Quick Facts:
• Population estimate of 583,403 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 275,908 in April 2010 (Florida Research and Economic Database)
• An unemployment rate of 12.1% as of April 2010, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 33,283 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:
• Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 6,644 employees • Lakeland Regional Medical Center – 4,540 employees • City of Lakeland – 2,600 employees
M etr o Ne w s Summarie s
• Watson Clinic – 1,500 employees
SF Polytechnic Funding: Big Day for Budget
• Geico – 1,850 employees
• GC Services – 1,000 employees • Rooms To Go – 900 employees
• FedEx National LTL – 850 employees
• Saddle Creek Corporation – 680 employees • Summit Consulting – 654 employees
Source: Lakeland Economic Development Council
• The Florida Legislature agreed to contribute $62 million for the first phase of the proposed University of South Florida Polytechnic campus.
• The Polk County Commission and the Lakeland City Commission have made multimillion-dollar commitments to the campus in recent years in an effort to jump-start the project.
• With Polytechnic, Polk County expects to attract higher-paying jobs and technology companies to the area. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, April 27, 2010
62
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
La k e l a n d
Lakeland Electric’s ‘Smart Grid’ Wins Approval of City Commission
• City commissioners backed a $29 million Smart Grid plan for Lakeland Electric. The federal government will provide $13 million for the project. $15.9 million will come from utility bonds that will be paid back over the next decade and a half. • The Smart Grid will make the utility more effective, giving the utility the capabilities to address outages more quickly and monitor customers’ electric usage more precisely.
• City commissioners overturned the Utility Committee’s vote not to proceed with the Smart Grid plan. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, May 3, 2010
Polk to Hire 200 Teachers to Reach Class Size Limit
• In order to comply with the state’s class-size amendment, the Polk County School District plans to hire 100 elementary and 100 middle and high school teachers. • The amendment, voted on in November 2002, requires pre-kindergarten through third grade classes to be capped at 18 students, fourth through eighth grade classes at 22 students, and high school classes at 25 students by the 20102011 school year.
FSC Brings Back Tenure System to Lure Best Faculty
• Florida Southern College granted tenure to some faculty members for the first time in almost 40 years. • Eight faculty members were given tenure as part of the school’s strategic plan, adopted in 2004, designed to attract top-quality teachers. FSC was one of only 10 colleges in the state without a tenure system. • Faculty members have the choice of applying for tenure or continuing on a year-to-year contract basis. Eighteen of FSC’s 100 faculty members have applied for tenure during the 2010-2011 academic year. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, May 14, 2010
Polk County Workers Facing Layoffs
• Polk County is facing a $27.1 million revenue shortfall next year as a result of a declining tax base.
• County Manager Mike Herr suggested that Polk County will have to eliminate more jobs and cut services to combat the county’s budget challenges.
• Since the start of the recession, Polk County has cut 137 county jobs, laying off 64 workers in 2009 and 73 employees so far this year. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, May 28, 2010
• The total cost to the district is expected to be $11 million, $2.7 million of which the state will contribute. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, May 11, 2010
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
63
La k e l a n d
Lakeland MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0
Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%
(percent)
1
280.0
(Thousands)
260.0
200.0 180.0
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate
(Millions 2000 $)
160.0
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Lakeland Payroll Employment
Lakeland Real Personal Income 10.0%
(percent change year ago)
8.0% 6.0%
25000.0
4.0%
20000.0
2.0%
15000.0
0.0%
10000.0
64
2.5
220.0
30000.0
5000.0
2
Lakeland Payroll Employment
Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product 35000.0
1.5
240.0
10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%
0.5
-2.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Gross Metro Product Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
-4.0%
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Personal Income
La k e l a n d
Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
20.2 9.7 7.8 12.4 16.3 8.1 34.3 27.7 39.9 3.2
20.4 9.8 7.8 12.6 16.5 8.5 34.7 27.9 40.2 3
20.7 10.5 7.9 12.8 16.6 9.1 35 28.1 40.4 2.9
20.9 4.9 8 12.9 16.7 3.2 35.2 28.1 40.6 2.5
21.2 4.7 8.1 13.1 16.8 3 35.6 28.2 40.8 2.3
21.4 4.8 8.2 13.3 16.9 3 35.9 28.4 41 2.1
21.7 4.8 8.3 13.4 17.1 3 36.2 28.5 41.2 2
22 5.3 8.4 13.6 17.3 3.5 36.5 28.6 41.4 2
22.3 5.4 8.5 13.8 17.4 3.6 36.8 28.7 41.7 2.1
22.6 5.4 8.6 14 17.5 3.4 37.1 28.8 41.9 2.3
22.8 5 8.7 14.1 17.6 3.1 37.2 28.8 42.2 2.4
23.1 4.8 8.8 14.2 17.7 2.8 37.4 28.8 42.5 2.6
23.3 4.7 8.9 14.4 17.9 2.7 37.7 28.9 42.8 2.7
23.6 4.7 9.1 14.6 18 2.8 37.9 28.9 43.1 2.7
196.8 1.8 15 4 181.8 1.6 10.4 -1.9 44.1 1.1 8.9 23.4 11.7 1.9 3.6 11.4 1.6 29.4 6.9 30.6 2.4 16.1 -0.2 8.3 0.4 1.3 -5.6 28.4 -0.8
198.1 2.3 15.2 4.1 183 2.1 10.5 0.6 44.5 2 9 23.6 11.9 1.9 3.3 11.6 3.5 29.7 6 30.8 2.7 16 -0.1 8.3 0.5 1.3 -2.7 28.4 -0.2
199.3 2.5 15.4 4.7 184 2.3 10.6 3 44.9 2.8 9.1 23.8 12.1 1.9 2.8 11.7 3.7 29.9 4.3 30.8 2.7 16.1 0.4 8.3 0.1 1.3 -1.9 28.4 0.2
200.8 2.7 15.6 4.7 185.2 2.5 10.8 4.8 45.3 3.7 9.2 23.9 12.3 1.9 2.4 11.7 3.3 30 3.4 31 2.4 16.3 1.1 8.3 -0.1 1.3 -1.2 28.5 0.7
202.3 2.8 15.7 4.6 186.6 2.6 11 5.6 45.8 3.9 9.3 24.1 12.5 1.9 2.5 11.8 2.9 30.3 3.1 31.2 2 16.4 2 8.3 0 1.3 -0.8 28.6 1
203.8 2.8 15.8 4.2 187.9 2.7 11.2 6.3 46.2 3.9 9.4 24.2 12.6 1.9 2.6 11.8 2.2 30.7 3.2 31.3 1.7 16.5 2.7 8.3 0 1.3 -0.5 28.8 1.3
205.2 2.9 16 3.6 189.2 2.9 11.4 7.3 46.6 3.8 9.5 24.3 12.8 1.9 2.8 11.8 1.6 31.1 4.1 31.3 1.5 16.5 2.5 8.3 0.1 1.3 -0.4 28.9 1.5
206.6 2.9 16.1 3.2 190.6 2.9 11.6 7.5 47 3.7 9.6 24.5 12.9 2 3 11.9 1.2 31.5 5 31.4 1.3 16.6 2 8.3 0 1.3 -0.5 29 1.7
207.9 2.8 16.1 2.8 191.7 2.8 11.8 7.5 47.3 3.4 9.7 24.6 13 2 3 11.9 1 31.9 5.2 31.5 1.1 16.6 1.4 8.3 -0.1 1.3 -0.6 29.1 1.8
209 2.6 16.2 2.3 192.8 2.6 12 7.2 47.6 3 9.8 24.7 13.1 2 2.7 11.9 0.8 32.3 5.3 31.5 0.8 16.6 1 8.3 -0.3 1.3 -0.6 29.3 1.7
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
193.4 -0.9 14.4 -1.3 179 -0.9 10.6 -6.4 43.6 -1.8 8.8 23.2 11.3 1.8 -4.8 11.3 -3.2 27.5 -1.6 29.9 3.9 16.1 -1.3 8.3 0.3 1.4 3.6 28.6 -0.4
193.7 -0.2 14.6 2.5 179.1 -0.4 10.4 -5.6 43.6 -0.2 8.7 23.2 11.3 1.8 -2.7 11.2 -2.2 28 0.6 29.9 2.6 16 -2.2 8.3 1.4 1.3 -0.9 28.5 -1.4
194.5 0.5 14.7 3.5 179.8 0.2 10.3 -5.3 43.6 -0.1 8.7 23.3 11.4 1.8 1.7 11.2 -0.5 28.7 3.7 30 1.7 16.1 -0.8 8.3 0.8 1.3 0.4 28.4 -1.3
195.5 0.9 14.9 3.9 180.6 0.7 10.3 -5.6 43.7 0.2 8.8 23.3 11.5 1.9 2.9 11.3 0.3 29 6.5 30.3 1.9 16.1 -0.1 8.3 0.4 1.3 -12.7 28.3 -1.6
14455 14536.3 14618.2 14718.9 14851.1 14983.6 15106.1 15253.2 15400.7 15546.4 588.1 589.6 591.3 593 595.1 597.4 599.9 602.9 606.1 609.2 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2 279.6 279.3 279 278.4 278 277.6 277.2 276.7 275.8 276.2 2.5 1.1 0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.8 -0.5 13.8 13.7 13.3 12.9 12.5 12.1 11.6 11.2 10.6 10.3 1715 1936 2569 3264 3974 4526 4949 5331 5720 5819 1849 2010 2421 3057 3737 4325 4693 5068 5416 5473 -135 -74 148 207 237 201 257 263 304 345
15656 15786.7 15913.4 16030.2 612.5 616 619.4 623 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 276.6 277.1 277.7 278.3 -0.2 0.2 0.7 0.8 9.9 9.5 9.3 9.1 5829 6024 6146 6145 5461 5638 5731 5699 368 386 415 446
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
65
La k e l a n d
Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
13.3 6 6.2 7.1
14.8 10.6 6.7 8.1
16.3 10.6 7.4 8.9
17.7 8.2 7.9 9.7
18.6 5.2 8.1 10.5
18.9 1.7 8 10.9
18.5 -2 7.7 10.8
19.8 7.1 7.7 12.1
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
12.7 3.9
13.6 7.8
14.7 7.4
15.4 5.3
15.8 2.4
15.6 -1.6
15.2 -2.2
16 5.4
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
26.2 24.8
28.2 26.1
30.2 27.1
31.6 27.6
32.4 27.6
32.6 26.8
31.7 26.1
33.7 27.3
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
33.7 4.1
34.2 1.6
35.6 4.1
37.3 4.8
37.8 1.5
38.3 1.4
38.7 0.9
39.7 2.8
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
183.7 1
194.6 5.9
207.1 6.4
211.6 2.2
211.7 0.1
208.3 -1.6
197.2 -5.3
193.6 -1.8
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
18.1 -1.9
18.2 0.7
18.3 0.3
17.9 -2.2
17.2 -3.5
16.3 -5.2
14.8 -9.3
14.4 -3
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
165.6 1.4
176.4 6.5
188.8 7
193.7 2.6
194.5 0.4
191.9 -1.3
182.4 -5
179.2 -1.8
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
12.9 -5.1
14.4 11.4
16.2 12.6
16.9 4.1
15.8 -6.5
13.8 -12.2
11.7 -15.8
10.7 -8.1
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
42.1 -4.2
43.9 4.3
47.6 8.4
48.9 2.8
49 0.2
47.8 -2.5
44.7 -6.4
43.6 -2.4
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
9.1 22.5 10.5
9.4 23.5 11
10.3 25.3 12.1
10.4 26.1 12.5
10.1 26.4 12.5
9.6 26.1 12.1
9.1 24.1 11.6
8.8 23.3 11.3
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
2.2 -7.9
2.2 -1.1
2.3 3
2.3 2.9
2.2 -7.8
2.1 -3.5
1.9 -8.4
1.8 -5.8
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
11 2
10.9 -1
11.1 1.8
11.6 4.1
11.8 2.5
12.2 2.8
11.8 -3.3
11.3 -4.4
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
25.4 23.3
30.7 20.8
33.2 8.2
32.9 -0.9
32 -2.6
31.3 -2.4
28.7 -8.2
27.6 -3.8
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
22.9 1.7
24.1 5.3
25.6 6.1
26.6 4.2
28 5.2
29.1 4
28.8 -0.9
29.8 3.2
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
15 -5.4
15.3 2.2
16.5 7.7
17 2.7
17.4 2.9
17.4 -0.5
16.6 -4.5
16.1 -2.8
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
7.5 0.9
8 7.6
9 11.9
9.5 5.5
9 -5.3
8.6 -4.1
8.3 -4.2
8.3 0.4
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
1.4 -3
1.3 -2.4
1.4 4.4
1.4 -0.6
1.4 1.2
1.4 0
1.4 -1.3
1.4 0.6
25.3 1.6
25.5 1
26 2
26.7 2.6
27.9 4.3
28.3 1.7
28.6 1
28.6 0.1
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
11638.2
12533.3
13732.2
14304.5
14299.5
14341.9
14010.2
14395
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
509.9 2
523.5 2.7
541.1 3.4
559.3 3.4
573.8 2.6
580.4 1.2
583.8 0.6
587.7 0.7
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
239.7 0.7
247.4 3.2
256.1 3.5
261.6 2.2
266.7 1.9
272.9 2.3
275.5 0.9
279.1 1.3
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
66
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
5.5
4.9
4
3.6
4.4
6.6
11.4
13.8
6783 6165 618
9082 8288 794
12853 11707 1146
9538 8288 1250
4392 4007 385
3161 2359 802
1238 1236 2
1714 1748 -35
Continued
La k e l a n d
Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
21 6.2 8 13
22.1 5.2 8.4 13.7
23.2 4.8 8.9 14.3
24.6 6 9.3 15.3
26.1 5.9 9.8 16.3
27.5 5.7 10.2 17.3
29.1 5.6 10.7 18.4
30.6 5.3 11.1 19.5
32.3 5.5 11.6 20.7
34.1 5.4 12.1 22
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
16.8 4.5
17.3 3.4
17.8 2.8
18.5 4
19.2 3.9
19.9 3.7
20.7 3.6
21.3 3.3
22.1 3.5
22.9 3.5
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
35.4 28.2
36.6 28.7
37.6 28.8
38.9 29.3
40.4 29.8
41.9 30.3
43.3 30.8
44.7 31.2
46.3 31.7
48.1 32.2
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
40.7 2.5
41.6 2.1
42.7 2.6
43.9 2.9
45.2 2.9
46.5 3
48 3
49.4 3
50.9 3
52.4 2.9
Personal Income (Billions $)
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
196.2 1.4
201.5 2.7
207.2 2.8
211.5 2.1
215.3 1.8
219 1.7
222 1.4
224.5 1.1
226.9 1.1
229.4 1.1
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
14.9 3.9
15.6 4.5
16.1 3
16.3 1.2
16.3 0.1
16.2 -0.4
16.1 -0.5
16.1 -0.4
16 -0.6
15.9 -0.5
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
181.3 1.2
185.9 2.6
191.1 2.8
195.2 2.2
199 1.9
202.8 1.9
205.9 1.5
208.4 1.2
211 1.2
213.5 1.2
10.4 -3.1
10.9 5
11.7 7.4
12.2 4.4
12.4 1.8
12.7 2.3
13 2.1
13.2 1.9
13.3 0.7
13.4 0.8
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
44 0.8
45.5 3.6
47.1 3.5
48.2 2.2
48.9 1.6
49.4 1
49.7 0.7
50.1 0.7
50.4 0.6
50.6 0.5
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
8.9 23.4 11.6
9.3 24 12.4
9.6 24.5 12.9
9.9 24.8 13.4
10.1 24.9 13.9
10.2 24.8 14.3
10.3 24.6 14.6
10.5 24.5 14.9
10.6 24.6 15
10.8 24.6 15.1
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
1.9 2.9
1.9 2.6
2 2.9
2 1.8
2 1.4
2.1 1.5
2.1 1.6
2.1 1.1
2.1 1.1
2.1 0.7
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
11.4 1.2
11.7 3
11.9 1.2
11.9 0.5
12 0.7
12.1 0.6
12.2 0.5
12.2 0.2
12.2 0.5
12.3 0.3
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
29.2 5.8
30.2 3.5
31.7 4.9
33.2 4.7
34.9 5.1
36.7 5.2
38.2 4.1
39.4 2.9
40.6 3.2
41.9 3.2
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
30.4 2.2
31.1 2.2
31.4 1.2
31.9 1.6
32.6 1.9
33.4 2.5
34 1.9
34.6 1.8
35.2 1.7
35.9 1.9
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
16.1 -0.3
16.3 1.5
16.6 1.7
16.6 0.3
16.6 0
16.6 -0.1
16.6 -0.2
16.5 -0.3
16.5 -0.1
16.4 -0.5
8.3 0.5
8.3 0
8.3 -0.1
8.3 0.2
8.3 0
8.3 -0.2
8.3 -0.3
8.3 -0.5
8.2 -0.4
8.2 -0.3
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
1.3 -5.4
1.3 -1.1
1.3 -0.5
1.3 -0.1
1.3 0.3
1.3 0.6
1.3 0.7
1.3 0.8
1.3 0.9
1.5 13.9
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
28.4 -1
28.6 0.8
29.1 1.7
29.5 1.5
29.9 1.3
30.2 1
30.5 1
30.7 0.8
30.9 0.7
31.1 0.5
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
14792.9
15326.6
15846.6
16410
16968
17545.1
18078.5
18603.3
19162
19728.9
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
594.2 1.1
604.5 1.7
617.7 2.2
631.6 2.2
644.8 2.1
658 2
671.4 2
684.8 2
697.5 1.9
709.1 1.7
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
278.2 -0.3
276.5 -0.6
277.4 0.4
279.6 0.8
283.2 1.3
286.8 1.2
290.2 1.2
293.7 1.2
297.4 1.2
301 1.2
Unemployment Rate (%)
12.7
10.9
9.4
8.5
8.1
7.7
7.2
6.8
6.4
6
Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
3583 3385 198
5455 5163 292
6036 5632 404
6125 5596 530
6262 5555 707
6492 5615 877
6540 5570 970
6530 5527 1003
6563 5505 1057
6506 5451 1055
Continued
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
67
La k e l a n d
Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
35.8 5.2 12.6 23.3
37.6 5 13.1 24.5
39.4 4.8 13.7 25.7
41.3 4.6 14.2 27
43.2 4.7 14.8 28.4
45.2 4.7 15.4 29.8
47.4 4.8 16.1 31.3
49.5 4.5 16.7 32.8
51.8 4.5 17.4 34.3
54.1 4.4 18.2 35.9
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
23.6 3.3
24.4 3.2
25.1 2.9
25.7 2.7
26.5 2.8
27.2 2.8
28 2.9
28.7 2.6
29.5 2.6
30.2 2.5
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
49.8 32.8
51.5 33.3
53.1 33.7
54.7 34.1
56.4 34.6
58.2 35
60.1 35.5
61.9 35.9
63.8 36.3
65.6 36.7
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
53.9 2.9
55.5 2.9
57.1 2.9
58.8 2.9
60.5 3
62.4 3.1
64.3 3.1
66.3 3.1
68.4 3.1
70.5 3.1
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
232 1.1
235.5 1.5
238.4 1.3
240.7 1
243.4 1.1
246.2 1.1
248.7 1
251.2 1
254.1 1.1
256.7 1
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
15.7 -1.4
15.4 -1.8
15.1 -2
14.8 -1.8
14.6 -1.6
14.4 -1.4
14.2 -1.3
14 -1.4
13.8 -1.2
13.7 -1
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
216.4 1.3
220.1 1.7
223.3 1.5
225.9 1.1
228.8 1.3
231.8 1.3
234.5 1.2
237.2 1.2
240.2 1.3
243 1.1
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
13.6 1.4
13.9 1.7
14.1 1.7
14.3 1.3
14.5 1.4
14.7 1.9
15 1.5
15.1 1
15.3 1
15.4 1.2
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
51.1 0.9
52 1.7
52.8 1.6
53.5 1.3
54.2 1.2
54.8 1.1
55.3 1
55.9 1
56.4 1
56.7 0.6
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
11 24.6 15.4
11.3 24.8 15.9
11.5 24.9 16.3
11.7 25 16.7
11.9 25.2 17.1
12.1 25.3 17.5
12.3 25.4 17.8
12.4 25.6 18
12.6 25.7 18.3
12.8 25.7 18.4
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
2.2 1
2.2 1.3
2.2 1.2
2.2 0.7
2.3 0.7
2.3 1.1
2.3 1.2
2.3 1.4
2.4 1.6
2.4 1.3
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
12.3 0.2
12.4 1
12.5 0.9
12.6 0.9
12.8 1.1
12.9 1.1
13.1 1
13.2 1.1
13.3 1.1
13.5 1.1
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
43.6 4
45.3 3.9
46.7 3
47.6 2
48.9 2.7
50.2 2.8
51.3 2.3
52.6 2.4
54 2.8
55.4 2.6
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
36.3 1.1
36.7 1.2
37.1 1.1
37.5 1.1
37.9 1
38.3 1
38.7 1
39.1 1.1
39.6 1.1
40 1.1
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
16.4 -0.2
16.5 0.3
16.5 0.2
16.5 0
16.5 0
16.5 0.2
16.6 0.3
16.6 0.3
16.7 0.4
16.7 0.1
8.2 0.2
8.3 0.6
8.3 0.4
8.3 0.4
8.4 0.5
8.4 0.2
8.4 0
8.4 -0.1
8.4 0
8.4 0
1.4 -10.4
1.4 0.7
1.4 0.8
1.4 0.8
1.4 0.8
1.4 0.8
1.4 0.8
1.4 0.8
1.4 0.8
1.6 8.3
31.3 0.6
31.5 0.7
31.7 0.7
31.9 0.5
32.1 0.6
32.2 0.5
32.4 0.5
32.6 0.5
32.7 0.5
32.8 0.4
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
20295.5
20936.5
21568.9
22184.9
22843.3
23488.8
24105.7
24727.2
25371.5
26058.9
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
720.2 1.6
731.4 1.6
742.7 1.5
754 1.5
765.5 1.5
777 1.5
788.6 1.5
800.2 1.5
811.8 1.5
823.5 1.4
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
304.2 1.1
307.4 1.1
310.7 1.1
314.2 1.1
318 1.2
322.3 1.4
326.8 1.4
331.4 1.4
336.1 1.4
340.7 1.4
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
68
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
5.8
5.7
5.6
5.6
5.7
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.9
5.9
6277 5301 975
6223 5264 959
6153 5219 934
6183 5227 955
6224 5269 955
6177 5244 933
5995 5067 928
5760 4843 918
5587 4684 903
5537 4646 891
Continued
La k e l a n d
Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
56.5 4.5 19 37.5
59.1 4.6 19.8 39.2
61.6 4.4 20.7 41
64.3 4.3 21.4 42.8
66.9 4.2 22.2 44.8
69.8 4.2 23 46.8
72.6 4 23.8 48.8
75.5 4 24.6 50.8
78.4 3.9 25.4 53
81.5 3.9 26.3 55.2
31 2.5
31.8 2.6
32.6 2.4
33.3 2.3
34 2.2
34.8 2.2
35.5 2.1
36.2 2
36.9 1.9
37.6 1.9
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
67.6 37.1
69.7 37.5
71.8 37.9
73.8 38.2
75.8 38.5
77.9 38.9
80 39.1
82.1 39.4
84.2 39.6
86.4 39.9
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
72.8 3.2
75.1 3.2
77.4 3.1
79.8 3
82.1 3
84.5 2.9
87 2.9
89.5 2.8
92 2.8
94.6 2.9
Personal Income (Billions $)
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
259.7 1.2
263.2 1.4
265.8 1
267.6 0.7
269.2 0.6
271.1 0.7
272.8 0.6
274.1 0.5
275.6 0.5
277 0.5
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
13.6 -0.8
13.5 -0.9
13.3 -1.1
13.2 -1
13 -1.1
12.9 -1
12.8 -1
12.7 -0.9
12.6 -0.5
12.6 -0.3
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
246.1 1.3
249.7 1.5
252.5 1.1
254.5 0.8
256.2 0.7
258.2 0.8
260 0.7
261.5 0.6
263 0.6
264.4 0.6
15.7 1.9
16 2
16.3 1.8
16.5 1
16.6 0.8
16.8 0.9
17 1
17.1 0.8
17.2 0.8
17.3 0.4
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
57 0.5
57.3 0.4
57.5 0.4
57.7 0.2
57.7 0.1
57.8 0.2
57.9 0.1
57.9 0.1
58 0.1
58 0
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
12.9 25.8 18.5
12.9 25.9 18.6
12.9 26.1 18.7
12.9 26.2 18.7
12.8 26.3 18.8
12.8 26.4 18.8
12.8 26.5 18.7
12.7 26.6 18.7
12.7 26.8 18.6
12.7 26.8 18.5
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
2.5 1.9
2.5 2.5
2.6 1.9
2.6 1.1
2.6 0.9
2.6 1.1
2.7 1.4
2.7 1.4
2.8 1.3
2.8 0.7
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
13.7 1.3
13.9 1.4
14 1.2
14.2 1.1
14.3 1
14.5 1.1
14.6 1
14.7 0.9
14.9 0.8
14.9 0.3
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
57.2 3.1
59.2 3.6
60.6 2.4
61.7 1.7
62.6 1.5
63.7 1.8
64.9 1.8
65.6 1.2
66.4 1.2
67.4 1.5
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
40.4 1.2
41 1.3
41.4 1
41.7 0.8
42 0.6
42.3 0.7
42.6 0.6
42.9 0.7
43.2 0.7
43.4 0.6
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
16.8 0.5
16.9 0.6
17 0.5
17 0.3
17.1 0.4
17.2 0.3
17.2 0.3
17.2 0.1
17.3 0.4
17.3 -0.2
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
8.4 -0.1
8.4 -0.1
8.4 0
8.4 -0.1
8.4 -0.2
8.3 -0.1
8.3 -0.3
8.3 -0.4
8.3 -0.4
8.2 -0.6
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
1.4 -7.7
1.5 0.8
1.5 0.8
1.5 0.8
1.5 0.8
1.5 0.8
1.5 0.8
1.5 0.8
1.5 0.7
1.6 6.9
33 0.4
33.1 0.3
33.2 0.3
33.3 0.2
33.3 0.2
33.4 0.2
33.4 0.2
33.5 0.1
33.5 0.1
33.5 0.1
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
26780.4
27527.3
28258.2
28977.2
29696.2
30464.3
31266.1
32051.1
32893.2
33796.8
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
835.2 1.4
847.1 1.4
859 1.4
871.1 1.4
883.1 1.4
895.2 1.4
907.3 1.3
919.3 1.3
931.5 1.3
943.6 1.3
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
345.4 1.4
350.1 1.4
354.8 1.3
359.5 1.3
364.1 1.3
368.8 1.3
373.5 1.3
378.2 1.3
383.1 1.3
387.7 1.2
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
6
6
6.1
6.1
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.3
6.3
6.3
5431 4549 881
5241 4346 895
5133 4239 894
5106 4207 900
5079 4179 901
5024 4129 895
4911 4024 888
4796 3905 891
4723 3821 903
4644 3732 911
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
69
M iami – F o rt Lauderda l e – M iami B each P r o fi l e s
Out l o o k Summarie s
The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Miami Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, this area is home to many sports teams, such as the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins, and the Florida Panthers. Two major universities reside in this metro – the University of Miami and Florida International University.
The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Miami Beach area is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 4.7 percent annually, and the per capita income level, at 35.7, will be the second highest in Florida. Average annual wage growth will be 2.9 percent. The average annual wage level is expected to be 51.9, the highest in the state. Miami is expected to average a population growth of 0.9 percent each year. The area has the highest Gross Metro Product in the state, at a level of 217,695.88 (Mill). Employment is expected to grow at an average rate of 1.1 percent each year, while unemployment is expected to be 10.2 percent. Miami’s fastest growing sector is expected to be the Education and Health Services sector at 2.2 percent annually, followed by Professional and Business Services at 2.0 percent each year and Manufacturing at 1.9 percent. The Construction and Mining, Financial and Federal Government Sectors are expected to decline with annual growth rates of -0.5 percent, -0.6 percent and -1.3 percent respectively.
QUICK FACTS:
• Metro area population estimate of 5,547,051 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)
• Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,500,625 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Broward County population estimate of 1,766,476 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,279,950 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)
• A civilian labor force of 2,159,223 in April 2010 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 11.4% as of April 2010, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 245,289 unemployed people for the metro area. (Florida Research and Economic Database) TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:
• Miami-Dade County Public Schools – 54,861 employees • Federal Government – 36,600 employees
• Florida State Government – 33,500 employees • Miami-Dade County – 32,000 employees • University of Miami – 12,765 employees
• Publix Super Markets – 11,760 employees
• Baptist Health South Florida – 11,615 employees • Jackson Health System – 10,500 employees • American Airlines – 9,000 employees
• Miami-Dade College – 6,500 employees
Sources: The Beacon Council, Agency for Workforce Innovation, and Enterprise Florida
70
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
M etr o Ne w s Summarie s Broward gets $1.24M in stimulus funding
• Broward County will be receiving a $1.24 million grant through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. • The stimulus money will be used for energy efficiency and other environmental initiatives.
• Possible uses for the money include an urban reforestation program, a rebate program for energy efficient devices, and a public outreach program.
Source: South Florida Business Journal, April 8, 2010
M iami – F o rt Lauderda l e – M iami B each
SEC launches investigation into Jackson hospital’s finances
FIU, Memorial Healthcare sign affiliation agreement
• The hospital lost $244 million in 2009. In September, Miami-Dade County issued $83.3 million in bonds to raise money for capital improvements at the hospital.
• Memorial Healthcare is the nation’s fifth-largest public health care system.
• The SEC has begun a formal investigation into Jackson Health System, a major hospital owned by Miami-Dade County.
• The SEC is concerned with the possibility that investors were deceived, and whether executives knew of the hospital’s financial crisis. Source: The Sun-Sentinel, April 20, 2010
• Florida International University has signed an agreement with Memorial Healthcare System that will allow the university’s medical students to receive clinical training from physicians at Memorial’s six hospitals.
• FIU’s Herbert Wertheim College of Medicine opened in August 2009.
Source: South Florida Business Journal, June 1, 2010
Passenger traffic, freight up at Miami International Airport
• Miami International Airport has reported that its numbers have risen for the 1st quarter of 2010.
• The number of passengers coming through MIA has increased by 3.5%, and freight has seen an increase of 25%.
• Miami International Airport is now the busiest airport in the state with 33.9 million passengers in 2009. Surpassing Los Angeles, it is now the second-largest U.S. airport for international travel, with 16 million international passengers in 2009. Source: The Miami Herald, May 15, 2010
BofA invests $3.8B in S. Fla. communities
• Bank of America has invested $3.8 billion into South Florida. The funds are part of the bank’s community development initiative, which includes loans for affordable housing, small businesses, and low-income or minority consumers, plus investments into economic development organizations.
• Miami received just over $1.5 billion, Fort Lauderdale received $1.43 billion, and West Palm Beach received $904 million.
Source: South Florida Business Journal, May 27, 2010 Institute for Economic Competitiveness
71
M iami – F o rt Lauderda l e – M iami B each Miami - Fort Lauderdale - Miami Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0
0.2
0.4
Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate (percent)
14.0% 12.0%
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
Miami Payroll Employment 3000.0
(Thousands)
2800.0
2400.0 2200.0 2000.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate
1800.0
Miami Real Gross Metro Product 500000.0
(Millions 2000 $)
Miami Real Personal Income 8.0%
(percent change year ago)
4.0% 2.0%
300000.0
0.0% -2.0%
200000.0 100000.0
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Miami Payroll Employment
6.0%
400000.0
72
0.8
2600.0
10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%
0.6
-4.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Gross Metro Product Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
-6.0%
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Personal Income
M iami – F o rt Lauderda l e – M iami B each
Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL
July 2010 Forecast
2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
241.5 5.9 109 132.5 195.1 4.4 43.1 34.8 49.8 3.3
244.1 6.1 110 134.1 196.5 4.8 43.4 35 50.3 3.3
246.9 6.6 111.1 135.8 197.8 5.2 43.8 35.1 50.7 3.4
249 4.4 112.1 136.9 198.7 2.7 44.1 35.2 51 3
251.6 4.2 113.3 138.3 199.9 2.5 44.5 35.3 51.3 2.9
254.5 4.3 114.6 139.9 201.4 2.5 44.9 35.5 51.6 2.6
257.8 4.4 116.1 141.6 203 2.6 45.4 35.7 51.9 2.5
261.2 4.9 117.6 143.6 204.8 3.1 45.9 36 52.3 2.5
264.5 5.1 119.1 145.4 206.4 3.3 46.4 36.2 52.6 2.6
267.6 5.1 120.7 146.9 207.9 3.2 46.8 36.3 53 2.8
270.4 4.9 122.5 147.9 209 2.9 47.1 36.4 53.5 2.9
273.8 4.8 124.1 149.7 210.7 2.9 47.6 36.6 53.9 3.1
277.1 4.8 125.7 151.4 212.3 2.8 48.1 36.8 54.3 3.2
280.5 4.8 127.2 153.3 213.9 2.9 48.5 37 54.7 3.3
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
2174.4 -0.5 77.2 -0.9 2097.2 -0.5 86 -13 503.8 0.6 133.3 279.2 88.6 41.9 -4.6 145.8 -4.5 327.1 1.6 339.9 2.9 241.6 -1.7 92.4 -0.9 35.1 3.5 283.5 -0.8
2174.7 0.2 78 2.5 2096.7 0.1 84.7 -9.1 504.2 1.6 133.1 279.7 88.7 42.5 -1 144.5 -3.3 329.9 1.9 341.3 2.5 241.2 -1 92.5 -0.3 33.7 -0.9 282.2 -1.3
2179.2 0.5 78.5 4.1 2100.7 0.4 83.8 -7 504.7 0.7 133.5 279.9 89.4 43.3 3.1 144.8 -2.7 333.1 2.7 342.4 2.2 241 -0.1 92.9 1.3 33.3 -1.9 281.5 -1.4
2186.6 0.4 79.2 3.4 2107.3 0.3 83.9 -4.7 506 0.5 135.1 279.7 90.4 43.9 5.3 145.5 -0.6 335.3 3.1 344.9 1.9 241 -0.2 92.9 0.6 33.1 -13.6 280.9 -1.7
2197.4 1.1 80.1 3.7 2117.4 1 85 -1.2 509.6 1.2 137.2 280.4 91.9 44.2 5.5 146.6 0.5 337.5 3.2 347.4 2.2 240.5 -0.5 92.9 0.5 33 -6.2 280.7 -1
2209.6 1.6 81 3.9 2128.6 1.5 86 1.6 513.9 1.9 138.6 282.6 93.1 44.5 4.7 147.8 2.3 340.1 3.1 349.3 2.3 240.4 -0.3 93 0.5 32.8 -2.6 280.7 -0.5
2223.2 2 82 4.6 2141.1 1.9 87.4 4.3 518.7 2.8 140 284.4 94.6 44.9 3.7 148.8 2.8 341.8 2.6 350.8 2.4 241.9 0.4 93.1 0.2 32.7 -1.9 281.1 -0.1
2237 2.3 82.9 4.6 2154.1 2.2 89.4 6.5 523.3 3.4 141.2 286.2 95.8 45 2.5 149.3 2.6 342.7 2.2 353 2.3 244.1 1.3 93 0.1 32.6 -1.5 281.8 0.3
2250.9 2.4 83.6 4.5 2167.3 2.4 91.3 7.4 527.5 3.5 142.4 287.8 97 45.1 1.9 149.9 2.3 344.5 2.1 354.9 2.2 245.9 2.3 93.1 0.2 32.5 -1.4 282.6 0.7
2265.2 2.5 84.3 4 2180.9 2.5 93.3 8.5 531.9 3.5 143.8 289.2 98 45.2 1.6 150.3 1.7 346.5 1.9 356.6 2.1 247.7 3.1 93.3 0.3 32.5 -1 283.6 1
2278.1 2.5 84.9 3.4 2193.2 2.4 95.5 9.2 535.7 3.3 144.9 290.5 99 45.5 1.5 150.5 1.2 349 2.1 357.4 1.9 249.2 3 93.4 0.3 32.4 -0.8 284.5 1.2
2290.5 2.4 85.4 3 2205.1 2.4 97.8 9.4 539.2 3 145.7 292.2 99.7 45.7 1.7 150.6 0.9 351.3 2.5 359.2 1.8 250.1 2.5 93.3 0.4 32.4 -0.7 285.5 1.3
2301.1 2.2 85.8 2.6 2215.3 2.2 99.7 9.2 542 2.7 146.6 293.4 100.5 45.8 1.6 150.8 0.6 353.8 2.7 360.5 1.6 250.6 1.9 93.4 0.3 32.3 -0.5 286.4 1.3
2310 2 86.1 2.1 2224 2 101.4 8.7 543.9 2.3 147.1 294.2 101.2 45.8 1.3 150.9 0.4 356.3 2.8 361.5 1.4 251.3 1.4 93.4 0.2 32.3 -0.6 287.2 1.3
209625 5608 0.9 2904.5 2.2 11.9 1167 4115 -2947
210660 5619.4 0.9 2908.8 2 11.9 2672 4367 -1695
211580 5631.3 0.8 2913.5 1.1 11.6 7961 5574 2387
212753 5643.2 0.8 2918 0.6 11.3 11376 7769 3607
214432 5655.5 0.8 2922.3 0.6 10.9 14438 10062 4376
216136 5667.7 0.9 2928.2 0.7 10.5 16138 12018 4120
217918 5680.2 0.9 2932.3 0.6 10.2 18927 13580 5347
219831 5693.1 0.9 2938 0.7 9.8 20668 14793 5875
221685 5705.8 0.9 2943.3 0.7 9.4 23210 16282 6928
223518 5720 0.9 2948.8 0.7 9.1 25101 16979 8122
224820 5734.7 1 2955.6 0.8 8.7 26586 17539 9047
226311 5749.7 1 2961 0.8 8.4 28238 18425 9813
227778 5765.3 1 2967.1 0.8 8.2 29410 18918 10492
229093 5781.8 1.1 2973.3 0.8 8 30152 19081 11071
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
73
M iami – F o rt Lauderda l e – M iami B each
Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL
July 2010 Forecast
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
179.2 2.8 89.3 89.9
194.9 8.7 95.4 99.5
210.6 8.1 103.3 107.3
228.8 8.7 110.2 118.7
234.8 2.6 113.9 121
236.6 0.8 112.8 123.9
229.5 -3 107.1 122.5
239 4.1 108.6 130.4
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
170.1 0.8
180.1 5.9
189.1 4.9
200 5.8
199.8 -0.1
194.9 -2.5
188.6 -3.2
193.3 2.5
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
33.9 32.1
36.3 33.5
38.7 34.7
41.9 36.6
42.9 36.5
43 35.4
41.3 34
42.7 34.5
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
40.4 4
42.1 4.2
43.9 4.4
45.8 4.1
46.9 2.4
47.7 1.7
48.3 1.4
49.7 2.8
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
2198.1 0.2
2253.1 2.5
2336.8 3.7
2393.6 2.4
2416 0.9
2352.8 -2.6
2203.1 -6.4
2174 -1.3
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
103.4 -8
100.8 -2.5
101.1 0.3
100.6 -0.5
98.6 -2
92.5 -6.2
79.7 -13.9
76.8 -3.6
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
2094.7 0.6
2152.3 2.7
2235.7 3.9
2293 2.6
2317.4 1.1
2260.3 -2.5
2123.4 -6.1
2097.2 -1.2
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
122.4 1.2
131.5 7.5
147.3 12.1
164.3 11.5
161.1 -1.9
134.9 -16.2
102.4 -24.1
87.2 -14.8
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
511.4 -1.1
517.9 1.3
531 2.5
544.2 2.5
550.4 1.1
541.6 -1.6
505.4 -6.7
503.1 -0.5
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
134.3 283.2 93.9
138.7 286.1 93.2
141.2 294.5 95.3
144.6 303.9 95.7
147.6 306.4 96.4
144.4 301.3 96
134.6 280.8 90
133.2 279.5 88.7
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
56.7 -7
55.8 -1.6
55.1 -1.2
52.4 -4.9
51.2 -2.4
49.7 -2.9
44.9 -9.8
42 -6.3
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
164.3 1
170 3.5
178.2 4.8
183.4 2.9
181.3 -1.2
170.8 -5.8
154.4 -9.6
146.4 -5.2
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
319.3 -0.3
331.7 3.9
357.2 7.7
368.7 3.2
371 0.6
354.2 -4.5
325.6 -8.1
326.7 0.3
284 3.4
293.5 3.4
301.5 2.7
307.9 2.1
318.8 3.5
326.2 2.3
330.2 1.2
338.7 2.6
229.4 2
240.2 4.7
247.5 3
251.6 1.6
257.8 2.5
256.9 -0.3
247.1 -3.8
241.3 -2.3
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
95.8 1.9
97.7 2
99 1.3
99.3 0.3
100.8 1.5
100.9 0.1
93.5 -7.3
92.2 -1.3
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
34.1 6.2
34.2 0.4
34.5 1
34 -1.4
34 -0.2
33.8 -0.4
34.1 0.9
35.3 3.3
277.4 1
279.8 0.9
284.3 1.6
287.1 1
291.1 1.4
291.2 0
285.9 -1.8
284.3 -0.6
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
185728
193976
206952
214662
215509
213335
204955
209320
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
5291.6 1.4
5372.4 1.5
5442.4 1.3
5464.9 0.4
5472.1 0.1
5507.9 0.7
5553.2 0.8
5601.9 0.9
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
2573.5 0.4
2610.2 1.4
2673.5 2.4
2742 2.6
2807.3 2.4
2852.3 1.6
2851.1 0
2899.1 1.7
5.7
5.1
4.2
3.6
4.1
6.1
10.2
11.9
37948 23579 14370
40726 23667 17059
41816 22542 19274
32960 15769 17191
14826 7602 7225
7688 3526 4163
3567 2230 1338
3283 3911 -628
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
74
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
Continued
M iami – F o rt Lauderda l e – M iami B each
Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL
July 2010 Forecast
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
250.5 4.8 112.8 137.7
262.8 4.9 118.4 144.4
275.4 4.8 124.9 150.6
292.3 6.1 131.3 161
309.8 6 137.8 172
327.7 5.8 144.4 183.3
345.9 5.5 150.9 194.9
364.3 5.3 157.4 206.8
384.5 5.6 164.3 220.2
405.8 5.5 171.2 234.6
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
199.4 3.2
205.5 3.1
211.4 2.9
220.1 4.1
228.8 3.9
237.3 3.7
245.7 3.5
253.6 3.2
262.7 3.6
272.1 3.6
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
44.3 35.3
46.1 36.1
47.8 36.7
50.2 37.8
52.4 38.7
54.7 39.6
56.9 40.4
59 41.1
61.4 42
63.9 42.8
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
51.1 3
52.5 2.6
54.1 3.1
56 3.4
58 3.5
60 3.5
62 3.4
64.2 3.4
66.4 3.4
68.5 3.3
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
2193.2 0.9
2244.1 2.3
2294.9 2.3
2332.4 1.6
2364.4 1.4
2395.8 1.3
2420.6 1
2441.2 0.8
2463 0.9
2485.5 0.9
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
79.7 3.8
83.2 4.4
85.5 2.8
86.2 0.8
85.9 -0.4
85.1 -0.9
84.3 -1
83.6 -0.8
82.7 -1
81.9 -1
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
2113.5 0.8
2160.9 2.2
2209.4 2.2
2246.2 1.7
2278.5 1.4
2310.7 1.4
2336.3 1.1
2357.6 0.9
2380.3 1
2403.5 1
84.7 -2.9
90.4 6.7
98.6 9.1
104.1 5.6
107.7 3.5
111.9 3.9
115.9 3.6
119.7 3.3
122.2 2.1
124.9 2.2
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
508.6 1.1
525.3 3.3
540.2 2.8
549.1 1.6
555.9 1.3
558.9 0.5
560.6 0.3
562.9 0.4
565 0.4
566.7 0.3
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
136.1 280.6 91.2
141.9 286.9 96.3
146.1 292.6 100.1
148.8 295.6 102.9
151.1 296.8 105.6
152.4 295.4 108.1
153.5 293.6 110.4
155 292.7 111.9
156.5 293 112.3
158.5 293.1 112.2
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
44 4.7
45 2.4
45.7 1.5
46 0.5
46.4 1
46.9 1.1
47.6 1.4
48.1 1
48.5 0.9
48.7 0.5
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
146.2 -0.2
149.6 2.3
150.7 0.8
151 0.2
151.9 0.6
152.9 0.6
153.5 0.4
153.7 0.1
154.2 0.4
154.5 0.2
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
336.5 3
343.9 2.2
352.6 2.5
361.9 2.6
370.6 2.4
380.4 2.6
388.1 2
393.6 1.4
400.4 1.7
407 1.6
346 2.2
353.8 2.3
359.7 1.7
366.1 1.8
373 1.9
382.9 2.7
390 1.9
396.7 1.7
403.6 1.7
411.2 1.9
240.7 -0.3
244.9 1.8
250.3 2.2
252.1 0.7
252.6 0.2
253 0.2
253.3 0.1
253 -0.1
253.6 0.2
253.2 -0.2
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
92.9 0.7
93.1 0.2
93.4 0.3
94.1 0.8
94.8 0.7
95.2 0.4
95.4 0.3
95.5 0.1
95.6 0.1
95.7 0.1
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
33 -6.3
32.6 -1.5
32.3 -0.6
32.3 -0.3
32.3 0.1
32.4 0.5
32.6 0.6
32.8 0.6
33 0.6
35.8 8.5
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
281 -1.2
282.3 0.5
285.9 1.3
289.5 1.3
293.2 1.3
296.1 1
299.2 1
301.7 0.9
304.1 0.8
305.9 0.6
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
213725
220738
227000
233879
240844
248235
255076
261910
269264
276638
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
5649.4 0.8
5699.8 0.9
5757.9 1
5826.7 1.2
5906.9 1.4
5991.9 1.4
6080.3 1.5
6170 1.5
6260.9 1.5
6352.8 1.5
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
2920.5 0.7
2940.6 0.7
2964.3 0.8
2986.6 0.8
3021.6 1.2
3058.3 1.2
3095.2 1.2
3132.2 1.2
3167.9 1.1
3202.8 1.1
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
11.1
9.6
8.3
7.5
7
6.6
6.2
5.8
5.5
5.2
12478 8856 3622
21977 15408 6568
28596 18491 10106
31256 19193 12063
33803 19802 14001
36531 20456 16075
38049 20731 17318
39024 21029 17995
40275 21343 18932
41077 21588 19489
Continued
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
75
M iami – F o rt Lauderda l e – M iami B each
Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL
July 2010 Forecast
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
426.9 5.2 178.3 248.6
448.4 5 186.3 262.1
469.9 4.8 194.4 275.5
491.9 4.7 202.5 289.4
515.4 4.8 211.3 304.1
540.2 4.8 220.7 319.5
566.1 4.8 230.4 335.8
592.2 4.6 240.4 351.8
619.4 4.6 251.2 368.2
647.5 4.5 262.3 385.2
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
281.3 3.4
290.2 3.2
298.7 2.9
307 2.8
315.8 2.9
325 2.9
334.4 2.9
343.5 2.7
352.7 2.7
362 2.6
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
66.2 43.6
68.6 44.4
70.8 45
73.1 45.6
75.5 46.2
78 46.9
80.6 47.6
83.1 48.2
85.8 48.8
88.4 49.4
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
70.8 3.3
73.1 3.3
75.5 3.3
78 3.3
80.7 3.4
83.5 3.5
86.4 3.5
89.4 3.5
92.6 3.5
95.8 3.5
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
2505.9 0.8
2534.8 1.2
2560.9 1
2582.3 0.8
2606.2 0.9
2630.4 0.9
2653.6 0.9
2676.8 0.9
2701.7 0.9
2725.8 0.9
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
80.4 -1.9
78.5 -2.3
76.6 -2.4
75 -2.1
73.6 -1.8
72.4 -1.6
71.3 -1.5
70.2 -1.6
69.2 -1.4
68.4 -1.2
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
2425.6 0.9
2456.3 1.3
2484.3 1.1
2507.3 0.9
2532.6 1
2558 1
2582.3 0.9
2606.6 0.9
2632.4 1
2657.4 0.9
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
128.1 2.6
131.8 2.8
135.6 2.9
138.9 2.5
142.5 2.6
146.6 2.9
150.3 2.6
153.5 2.1
156.7 2.1
160.2 2.3
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
570.3 0.6
578.2 1.4
585.3 1.2
591.1 1
596.5 0.9
601 0.8
605.5 0.7
609.8 0.7
613.9 0.7
616.2 0.4
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
161.2 292.9 113.7
164.9 294.4 116.4
168.3 295.8 118.7
170.8 297 120.7
173.1 298.2 122.8
175.1 299 124.6
177.2 300.4 125.6
179.1 302 126.4
181.1 303.1 127.5
182.9 303.6 127.4
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
49.2 0.9
49.8 1.2
50.3 1.1
50.7 0.8
51.2 0.9
51.8 1.2
52.5 1.4
53.4 1.6
54.3 1.8
55.1 1.5
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
154.8 0.2
156 0.8
157.2 0.8
158.4 0.8
159.9 1
161.6 1
163.2 1
164.8 1
166.6 1.1
168.4 1.1
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
415.6 2.1
424.1 2
430.8 1.6
435.5 1.1
441.7 1.4
448.2 1.5
453.6 1.2
459.2 1.2
465.9 1.5
472.3 1.4
416 1.2
420.3 1
424.9 1.1
429.2 1
433.4 1
437.5 0.9
441.8 1
446.5 1.1
451.4 1.1
455.9 1
253.5 0.1
254.8 0.5
255.8 0.4
256.4 0.2
257 0.2
258.2 0.4
259.8 0.6
261.5 0.7
263.5 0.7
264.6 0.4
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
96.4 0.7
97.3 1
98.2 0.9
99 0.8
100 1
100.6 0.6
101 0.4
101.3 0.4
101.8 0.4
102.2 0.5
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
33.9 -5.4
34.2 0.9
34.4 0.6
34.6 0.6
34.8 0.6
35 0.6
35.2 0.6
35.4 0.6
35.6 0.6
38.2 7.3
307.7 0.6
309.8 0.7
311.8 0.7
313.6 0.6
315.6 0.6
317.6 0.6
319.4 0.6
321.1 0.5
322.8 0.5
324.2 0.4
284014
292239
300463
308690
317453
325950
334125
342368
350851
359980
6446 1.5
6540.2 1.5
6635.2 1.5
6731.1 1.4
6827.7 1.4
6925 1.4
7023.3 1.4
7122.5 1.4
7222.1 1.4
7322.1 1.4
3239.5 1.1
3275.6 1.1
3312.3 1.1
3350.5 1.2
3390.9 1.2
3437.9 1.4
3487.2 1.4
3537.8 1.5
3589.1 1.4
3640.8 1.4
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
76
5
4.9
4.8
4.9
4.9
4.9
5
5
5.1
5.1
41128 21482 19647
42067 21888 20179
42723 22309 20414
42971 22778 20193
43527 23448 20079
43880 23815 20065
43589 23504 20085
43083 22985 20098
42659 22739 19920
42943 23042 19900
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
Continued
M iami – F o rt Lauderda l e – M iami B each
Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL
July 2010 Forecast
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
677.1 4.6 274.1 403
708.6 4.6 286.7 421.9
740.8 4.5 299.2 441.6
773.5 4.4 311.2 462.3
807.3 4.4 323.5 483.8
842.7 4.4 336.6 506.1
878.4 4.2 350.2 528.3
915.3 4.2 363.8 551.5
953 4.1 377.8 575.1
992.2 4.1 392.6 599.6
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
371.5 2.6
381.5 2.7
391.3 2.6
400.8 2.4
410.4 2.4
420.4 2.4
429.8 2.3
439.2 2.2
448.3 2.1
457.7 2.1
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
91.2 50
94.2 50.7
97.2 51.3
100.1 51.9
103.2 52.4
106.3 53
109.4 53.5
112.6 54
115.7 54.4
119 54.9
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
99.2 3.6
102.7 3.5
106.2 3.5
109.9 3.4
113.6 3.4
117.5 3.4
121.5 3.5
125.7 3.4
129.9 3.3
134.4 3.5
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
2750.4 0.9
2779.5 1.1
2803 0.8
2820.3 0.6
2835.4 0.5
2852.6 0.6
2868.5 0.6
2882.1 0.5
2897 0.5
2909.4 0.4
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
67.7 -1
67 -1.1
66.2 -1.2
65.4 -1.2
64.5 -1.3
63.8 -1.2
63 -1.1
62.4 -1
62 -0.7
61.7 -0.4
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
2682.7 1
2712.5 1.1
2736.9 0.9
2755 0.7
2770.8 0.6
2788.9 0.7
2805.4 0.6
2819.7 0.5
2835 0.5
2847.7 0.4
165 3
170.1 3.1
175.1 3
178.9 2.1
182.3 1.9
186 2
190 2.2
193.8 2
197.7 2
200.9 1.6
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
618.1 0.3
619.1 0.2
620.2 0.2
620.1 0
619.5 -0.1
619.3 0
618.6 -0.1
617.9 -0.1
617.6 -0.1
616.7 -0.1
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
183.7 304.9 127.3
183.7 306.4 127.1
183.4 308 126.9
182.7 309.2 126.5
182 310.2 125.8
181.3 311.3 125.2
180.4 312.6 124.2
179.5 314.1 123.2
178.8 315.7 122
178.6 316.4 120.6
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
56.3 2.1
57.8 2.7
59 2.1
59.8 1.3
60.5 1.2
61.3 1.4
62.3 1.7
63.4 1.7
64.4 1.5
65 0.9
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
170.5 1.3
172.7 1.3
174.6 1.1
176.4 1
178.1 1
180 1.1
181.7 0.9
183.3 0.9
184.7 0.8
185.3 0.3
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
480.3 1.7
489.7 1.9
496 1.3
500.7 0.9
504.9 0.8
509.9 1
514.6 0.9
517.7 0.6
520.8 0.6
524.3 0.7
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
461.1 1.1
467.1 1.3
471.8 1
475.4 0.8
478.2 0.6
481.5 0.7
484.3 0.6
487.7 0.7
491 0.7
494 0.6
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
266.9 0.9
269.4 1
271.8 0.9
273.7 0.7
275.8 0.8
277.7 0.7
279.5 0.6
280.8 0.5
282.8 0.7
283 0.1
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
102.5 0.3
102.9 0.3
103.3 0.4
103.7 0.4
104 0.3
104.4 0.4
104.6 0.2
104.6 0
104.6 0
104.4 -0.2
36.3 -5.1
36.5 0.6
36.8 0.6
37 0.6
37.2 0.6
37.4 0.6
37.6 0.6
37.8 0.6
38 0.5
40.3 5.9
325.7 0.5
327.1 0.4
328.3 0.4
329.3 0.3
330.4 0.3
331.4 0.3
332.2 0.3
332.8 0.2
333.4 0.2
333.9 0.1
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
369564
379412
389261
399053
408877
419326
430246
441056
452657
464904
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
7422.3 1.4
7522.9 1.4
7623.6 1.3
7724.7 1.3
7825.9 1.3
7927.5 1.3
8029.4 1.3
8132 1.3
8235 1.3
8338.9 1.3
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
3692.8 1.4
3745 1.4
3797.6 1.4
3850.5 1.4
3903.7 1.4
3957.2 1.4
4010.9 1.4
4065.1 1.4
4119.8 1.3
4172 1.3
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
5.2
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.5
5.5
5.5
42970 23083 19887
42740 22634 20106
42704 22639 20065
43054 23000 20053
43250 23386 19865
43079 23658 19420
42594 23644 18949
42261 23542 18718
42300 23634 18666
42260 23704 18556
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
77
Nap l e s – M arc o I s l a n d
P r o fi l e s
Out l o o k Summarie s
The Naples–Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier County only. Located on the southwest coast of Florida, the area is notable for numerous recreation and leisure activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the “Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida.”
The Naples–Marco Island MSA is expected to show strong growth in the economic indicators. The metro area is ranked number one in the State of Florida for personal income growth, with a 6.4 percent growth rate, and also for per capita income level, which is expected to be 53.8. Average annual wage will be the second highest in the state at a level of 49.5. The average annual wage is expected to grow at a rate of 3.0 percent, the highest in the state. Population growth will average 1.4 percent, one of the highest in the state and the Gross Metro Product level will be 13,469.03 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to average 1.6 percent each year, tied for the highest in the state. The metro will see an unemployment rate of 11.5 percent. The Manufacturing sector represents Naples’ fastest growing sector, growing at a rate of 3.1 percent each year. The Trade, Transportation and Utility and Information sectors follow with growth rates of 3.0 percent and 2.9 percent respectively. The Federal Government sector is the only sector expected to decline with an annual growth rate of -2.3 percent.
Quick Facts:
• Population estimate of 318,537 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 144,395 in April 2010 (Florida Research and Economic Database)
• An unemployment rate of 11.4% as of April 2010, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 16,511 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:
• NCH Healthcare System – 5000 employees
• Collier County School District – 4728 employees • Publix Supermarket – 3246 employees • Marriott Hotels – 2328 employees • Walmart - 1715 employees
M etr o Ne w s Summarie s
• Winn Dixie Stores, Inc – 1014 employees
$50M earmark still designed for Jackson Lab genetics project in Collier
• Collier County Sheriff’s Office – 1029 employees • Home Depot – 1012 employees
Source: Economic Development Council of Collier County
• The Florida State Legislature has promised $50 million to make Collier County a more desirable location for Jackson Laboratory. • The money is set aside specifically for the company. The county would like for Jackson Laboratory to be located next to the newly built Ave Maria University.
• A goal of Southwest Florida has been to diversify its economy. Officials say that a life sciences facility would not only accomplish this goal, but would establish thousands of new jobs. Source: Naplesnews.com, April 26, 2010
78
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
Nap l e s – M arc o I s l a n d
NCH spells out time-out requirements for nonnursing staff
• NCH Healthcare System has notified department directors to encourage their employees to take time off during the slow, summer months, and avoid taking off time in the busier, winter months.
• The volume of patients in January through March spikes, and then drops off about 40% in the summer months. • Human Resources has not released the exact amount of money it expects to save, but they do anticipate significant savings by the hospital reducing staff in the summer months. Source: Naplesnews.com, April 28, 2010
Hurricane weather industry weathers storms
• Hurricane shutter companies in Southwest Florida are feeling the effects of the recession and several quiet storm seasons. • The Hurricane Protection Agency predicts a severe storm season this year, opening doors for old defunct companies. The state still leads the industry selling the most shutters in the U.S., but business is slow. • The HPA encourages consumers to not only look at the longevity of the companies, but the length of time that the owner has possessed the company. Source: Naplesnews.com, May 2, 2010
On Florida Coast, Homeowners Jittery
• On Memorial Day weekend, the beaches of Naples were packed, but the oil spill remained the topic of conversation. Local hotels reported few cancellations.
• There is still no evidence that the oil has reached this part of Florida’s beaches. • Homeowners are encouraged to take updated photos of their property if they are seeking to rent out their vacation spots.
• BP has promised $70 million to Gulf Coast states to promote tourism. Source: The Wall Street Journal, June 3, 2010
Lee commissioners consider sale of development rights in DR/GR
• Lee County is considering a plan that would change the county’s land-use guidelines. It would preserve important open space in the county, as well as give rural landowners more value through the ability to sell development credits.
• The plan strips away mining rights in the Density Reduction/Groundwater Resource (DR/GR) area. The land would then serve to replenish drinking water aquifers. • The general idea of the amendment is that a DR/ GR landowner can preserve agricultural rights to land while selling the commercial or residential development rights. Source: Naplesnews.com, June 7, 2010
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
79
Nap l e s – M arc o I s l a n d Naples MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0
0.5
Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%
(percent)
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate
1
45000.0 40000.0 35000.0 30000.0 25000.0 20000.0 15000.0 10000.0 5000.0
80
2
2.5
Naples Payroll Employment 220.0 200.0 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0
(Thousands)
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Naples Payroll Employment
Naples Real Personal Income
Naples Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $)
1.5
20.0%
(percent change year ago)
15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0%
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Gross Metro Product Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
-10.0%
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Personal Income
Nap l e s – M arc o I s l a n d
Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
20.8 9.5 5.2 15.6 16.8 7.9 64.5 52.1 47.5 3.6
21.1 9.6 5.2 15.9 17 8.3 65.2 52.5 47.9 3.5
21.4 10.4 5.3 16.1 17.2 9 66 52.9 48.3 3.5
21.7 5.9 5.3 16.3 17.3 4.3 66.6 53.1 48.6 3.1
22 5.6 5.4 16.6 17.5 3.9 67.3 53.5 48.9 2.9
22.3 5.6 5.5 16.8 17.6 3.8 68.1 53.8 49.2 2.7
22.6 5.6 5.6 17.1 17.8 3.8 68.8 54.2 49.5 2.6
23 6.2 5.7 17.4 18 4.4 69.7 54.7 49.9 2.6
23.4 6.4 5.8 17.6 18.2 4.5 70.5 55.1 50.2 2.7
23.7 6.3 5.9 17.9 18.4 4.4 71.2 55.3 50.6 2.8
23.9 5.9 6 18 18.5 3.9 71.5 55.3 51 3
24.3 5.5 6.1 18.2 18.7 3.5 72.2 55.5 51.4 3.1
24.6 5.4 6.2 18.5 18.9 3.5 72.9 55.8 51.8 3.2
25 5.5 6.3 18.8 19.1 3.6 73.6 56.1 52.3 3.3
109.9 1.8 2.8 4.5 107.1 1.7 9.1 -1.6 22.1 1.5 3.1 17.5 1.6 1.7 5 6.5 3 11.5 4.5 17.2 3.5 20.2 0.8 5.7 2.1 0.6 -4.7 12.6 0.2
110.7 2.4 2.8 4.5 107.9 2.3 9.2 1.6 22.3 2.1 3.1 17.6 1.6 1.7 4.6 6.6 4.8 11.5 3.9 17.4 3.7 20.2 1.1 5.7 2.2 0.6 -1.9 12.6 0.6
111.5 2.8 2.9 5.1 108.7 2.8 9.4 4.8 22.5 2.8 3.2 17.8 1.6 1.7 4.1 6.7 5.2 11.6 3 17.4 3.5 20.4 1.7 5.7 1.8 0.6 -0.9 12.7 1
112.7 3.3 2.9 4.9 109.8 3.3 9.6 7.2 22.8 3.8 3.2 18 1.6 1.7 3.6 6.7 4.7 11.7 2.6 17.6 3.3 20.7 2.5 5.8 1.6 0.6 -0.2 12.7 1.6
113.9 3.7 2.9 4.8 110.9 3.6 9.8 8.3 23 4.2 3.3 18.1 1.7 1.7 3.5 6.8 4.3 11.8 2.6 17.7 2.8 20.9 3.6 5.8 1.7 0.6 0.2 12.8 2
115 3.9 3 4.4 112.1 3.9 10 9.1 23.3 4.4 3.3 18.3 1.7 1.8 3.7 6.8 3.7 11.9 2.8 17.8 2.6 21.1 4.4 5.8 1.8 0.6 0.6 12.9 2.4
116 4 3 3.8 113 4 10.3 10 23.5 4.4 3.3 18.4 1.7 1.8 3.9 6.9 3.1 12 3.5 17.9 2.6 21.2 4.2 5.8 1.8 0.6 0.8 13 2.7
117.2 4 3 3.4 114.2 4 10.5 10 23.8 4.5 3.4 18.6 1.7 1.8 4.2 6.9 2.7 12.1 4 18 2.6 21.4 3.6 5.9 1.8 0.6 0.7 13.1 3
118.2 3.8 3 3 115.2 3.8 10.8 9.6 24.1 4.4 3.4 18.8 1.8 1.8 4.2 6.9 2.4 12.2 4.1 18.2 2.5 21.5 2.9 5.9 1.5 0.6 0.6 13.2 3.2
119.1 3.6 3 2.6 116.1 3.6 10.9 9 24.3 4.1 3.5 18.9 1.8 1.8 4 7 2.1 12.4 4.2 18.2 2.4 21.6 2.4 5.9 1.4 0.6 0.6 13.3 3.2
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
107.9 -1 2.7 3.9 105.3 -1.1 9.2 -8.8 21.8 4.7 3 17.1 1.5 1.6 0.5 6.3 -2.2 11 -3.7 16.6 1 20 -1.7 5.6 -2.2 0.6 0.3 12.5 -3.2 12790.3 322.6 1 148 4.6 13.8 867 994 -127
108.1 0 2.7 5.1 105.4 -0.2 9 -6 21.9 3.2 3 17.2 1.5 1.6 1 6.3 -1.5 11.1 -2 16.8 1.7 20 -0.8 5.6 0.2 0.6 -6 12.5 -0.4
108.5 0.5 2.7 4.1 105.8 0.5 8.9 -6 21.9 1.9 3 17.3 1.5 1.6 3.1 6.3 -1.1 11.3 1.7 16.8 2.9 20.1 0.2 5.6 1.9 0.6 -2.3 12.5 -1
109.1 1 2.8 4.5 106.3 0.9 8.9 -5.8 22 1 3 17.3 1.5 1.7 4.3 6.4 1.6 11.4 3.9 17 3.2 20.1 1 5.7 2.1 0.6 -11.7 12.5 -0.5
12872 12954.5 13066.5 13211.1 13351.9 13483.3 13646.4 323.5 324.4 325.4 326.4 327.6 328.7 330 1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 149.7 151.3 152.8 154.4 156 157.7 158.6 4.4 4.1 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.3 3.8 13.7 13.2 12.7 12.3 11.7 11.2 10.7 1134 1897 2348 2753 2961 3277 3504 1130 1371 1708 2046 2311 2480 2654 4 526 640 707 650 797 850
13808 13966.1 14089.8 14239.5 14385.1 14518.2 331.4 333 334.7 336.3 338.1 339.8 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 2 2 159.3 160.2 161.2 162.1 163.1 164.1 3.2 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 10 9.7 9.4 9.1 8.8 8.6 3863 4089 4259 4496 4653 4712 2876 2943 2983 3119 3209 3214 986 1146 1276 1377 1444 1498
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
81
Nap l e s – M arc o I s l a n d
Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
12.7 6.3 4.5 8.1
15.2 19.8 5 10.2
16.8 10.6 5.6 11.2
19.1 14 6 13.1
20.1 5.3 6.1 14
19.7 -2 5.6 14.1
19.1 -3.3 5.1 14
20.4 7.1 5.1 15.3
12 4.2
14 16.7
15.1 7.3
16.7 11
17.1 2.5
16.3 -5.2
15.7 -3.5
16.5 5.4
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
44.2 42
51.1 47.2
54.7 49.1
61.4 53.6
64.2 54.6
62.5 51.4
59.8 49.2
63.4 51.3
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
40.3 8.3
42 4.2
44.2 5.1
45 1.8
46.9 4.2
46.2 -1.4
45.9 -0.6
47.3 3
Personal Income (Billions $)
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
111.7 3.1
118.3 5.8
125.9 6.5
132.6 5.3
129.6 -2.3
121.1 -6.6
110.6 -8.7
108 -2.3
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
2.9 -5.3
3.1 5.9
3.2 3
3.3 3.6
3.3 -1.3
3 -9.7
2.7 -9.8
2.7 -0.1
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
108.8 3.3
115.1 5.8
122.7 6.6
129.3 5.4
126.3 -2.3
118.1 -6.5
107.9 -8.6
105.3 -2.4
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
14.6 -0.8
16.8 14.8
20.3 21.3
23.9 17.6
19.7 -17.7
14.4 -26.6
10.4 -27.7
9.3 -10.9
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
22.4 -1.3
23 2.4
24.3 5.6
24.5 0.9
24.2 -1.3
23 -4.9
21.2 -7.6
21.7 2.3
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
3.1 17.7 1.7
3.3 18 1.7
3.4 19.1 1.8
3.2 19.5 1.7
3.4 19.2 1.6
3.3 18.2 1.5
3 16.7 1.5
3 17.1 1.5
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
1.7 -3.3
1.8 7.3
1.8 0
1.9 3.1
1.8 -4.9
1.8 -0.9
1.6 -8.8
1.6 -0.6
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
6.7 2.6
7.1 5.9
7.7 9.4
8.2 5.6
8.2 0.1
7.3 -10.4
6.5 -11.1
6.3 -2.7
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
12.9 26
14.2 10.2
13.1 -7.9
13.6 4
12.6 -7.6
12 -4.5
11.5 -4.1
11 -4.2
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
13.7 3.2
13.9 1.8
15 7.6
15.9 5.8
16.7 5.3
16.9 0.8
16.5 -1.8
16.6 0.1
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
18.8 1.2
20.4 8.1
21.8 7.3
22.2 1.7
23.3 4.8
22.8 -2
20.8 -8.9
20 -3.9
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
5.5 -0.3
5.4 -1.4
5.7 5.2
5.8 1.9
6 3.2
6 0.5
5.7 -4.6
5.6 -2.4
0.7 0
0.7 0
0.7 0
0.7 0
0.7 0
0.7 -3.6
0.7 1.3
0.7 -4.4
11.8 4.5
11.9 1
12.3 2.9
12.7 3.4
13.3 4.6
13.3 -0.3
12.9 -2.9
12.6 -2.2
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
11002
11865.7
13092.4
13940.3
13544.9
12923
12213.4
12696
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
286.3 3.6
296.9 3.7
306.9 3.4
311.7 1.6
313.7 0.7
316 0.7
318.9 0.9
322.2 1
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
133.1 2.7
138 3.6
144 4.4
151 4.8
151 0
148 -2
144.2 -2.6
147.3 2.2
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
82
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
4.9
4.2
3.4
3.1
4.2
6.8
11.2
13.9
5333 3401 1932
6100 4015 2084
5723 4034 1688
4272 3054 1218
1962 1163 799
955 668 287
816 642 174
1102 995 106
Continued
Nap l e s – M arc o I s l a n d
Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
21.8 6.8 5.4 16.5
23.2 6.2 5.7 17.5
24.5 5.6 6.1 18.4
26.3 7.5 6.5 19.8
28.2 7.4 6.9 21.3
30.3 7.4 7.3 23
32.5 7.3 7.8 24.8
34.9 7.1 8.3 26.6
37.4 7.4 8.7 28.7
40.2 7.4 9.2 31
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
17.4 5.2
18.1 4.3
18.8 3.6
19.8 5.4
20.8 5.3
22 5.3
23.1 5.3
24.3 5
25.6 5.4
27 5.4
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
67 53.3
70.1 54.8
72.6 55.7
76.3 57.5
80 59
83.6 60.5
87.3 62
91 63.4
95.1 65
99.4 66.6
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
48.8 3
50.1 2.7
51.6 3.2
53.4 3.4
55.2 3.4
57.2 3.5
59.2 3.5
61.2 3.5
63.4 3.5
65.5 3.3
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
109.5 1.4
113.3 3.4
117.6 3.8
121.2 3
124.5 2.8
127.9 2.7
131 2.5
134.1 2.4
137.2 2.3
140.3 2.3
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
2.8 4.4
2.9 4.8
3 3.2
3.1 1.5
3.1 0.2
3.1 -0.5
3 -0.3
3 -0.1
3 -0.4
3 -0.3
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
106.8 1.3
110.4 3.4
114.6 3.8
118.1 3.1
121.5 2.8
124.8 2.8
128 2.5
131.1 2.4
134.2 2.4
137.3 2.3
9 -3
9.7 7.4
10.6 9.7
11.2 5.7
11.6 3.6
12.1 4.4
12.6 4.2
13.1 3.9
13.5 2.7
13.9 2.8
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
22.1 1.6
22.9 3.8
23.9 4.4
24.7 3.3
25.4 2.7
25.8 1.8
26.2 1.5
26.7 1.8
27.2 2
27.7 1.8
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
3.1 17.4 1.6
3.2 18 1.7
3.4 18.7 1.8
3.6 19.2 1.8
3.7 19.6 1.9
3.8 19.9 2
3.9 20.1 2.1
4 20.4 2.1
4.1 20.7 2.1
4.2 21.1 2.2
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
1.7 4.3
1.7 3.7
1.8 4.1
1.9 3.1
1.9 2.8
2 3
2 3.2
2.1 2.7
2.1 2.7
2.2 2.2
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
6.5 2.1
6.7 4.5
6.9 2.5
7 1.7
7.2 2
7.3 1.9
7.4 1.9
7.6 1.6
7.7 1.8
7.8 1.6
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
11.4 3.5
11.7 2.8
12.2 4
12.7 4.1
13.3 4.9
14 4.9
14.6 4.4
15.1 3.7
15.7 3.8
16.3 3.8
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
17.1 3.3
17.6 3
18.1 2.5
18.7 3.2
19.3 3.6
20.1 4.2
20.9 3.6
21.6 3.5
22.3 3.3
23.1 3.5
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
20.1 0.8
20.8 3
21.4 3.2
21.8 1.7
22.1 1.3
22.4 1.3
22.6 1.2
22.9 1.1
23.2 1.4
23.4 0.9
5.7 2.1
5.8 1.7
5.9 1.6
6 2
6.1 1.8
6.2 1.5
6.3 1.5
6.4 1.3
6.4 1.3
6.5 1.4
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
0.6 -5.3
0.6 -0.1
0.6 0.7
0.6 1.1
0.6 1.5
0.7 1.8
0.7 2
0.7 2
0.7 2.1
0.8 17.7
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
12.6 -0.2
12.8 1.7
13.2 3
13.6 3
13.9 2.9
14.3 2.5
14.7 2.5
15 2.3
15.3 2.2
15.6 2
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
13146
13725.9
14308.2
14946
15607.2
16312.6
17004
17714.7
18466.7
19240.9
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
325.9 1.2
330.8 1.5
337.2 1.9
344.6 2.2
353.1 2.5
362.8 2.7
372.7 2.8
383 2.8
393.6 2.8
404.4 2.8
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
153.6 4.3
159 3.5
162.6 2.3
166.5 2.4
171.4 2.9
176.3 2.9
181.3 2.8
186.3 2.8
191.5 2.8
196.5 2.6
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%)
12.5
10.4
9
8.1
7.8
7.4
7
6.7
6.3
6
Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
2490 1859 630
3683 2739 945
4530 3131 1399
4844 3206 1638
5187 3263 1923
5532 3365 2167
5741 3427 2314
5910 3502 2408
6083 3554 2529
6235 3601 2634
Continued
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
83
Nap l e s – M arc o I s l a n d
Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
43 7 9.7 33.3
45.9 6.7 10.3 35.6
48.9 6.4 10.9 38
52 6.4 11.5 40.5
55.3 6.4 12.2 43.2
59 6.5 12.9 46.1
62.8 6.6 13.6 49.2
66.8 6.3 14.4 52.4
70.9 6.2 15.3 55.7
75.3 6.1 16.1 59.1
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
28.3 5.1
29.7 4.9
31.1 4.5
32.5 4.5
33.9 4.5
35.5 4.6
37.1 4.7
38.7 4.4
40.4 4.3
42.1 4.2
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
103.5 68.2
107.5 69.6
111.4 70.8
115.4 72
119.6 73.3
124.1 74.6
128.8 76.1
133.4 77.3
138 78.6
142.7 79.8
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
67.7 3.4
70 3.4
72.3 3.3
74.6 3.3
77.1 3.4
79.8 3.5
82.6 3.5
85.4 3.4
88.4 3.5
91.5 3.5
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
143.4 2.2
146.9 2.5
150.3 2.3
153.5 2.2
157 2.2
160.6 2.3
164.3 2.3
168.1 2.3
172.1 2.3
175.9 2.3
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
3 -1.2
2.9 -1.9
2.9 -2.2
2.8 -1.8
2.8 -1.4
2.7 -1.2
2.7 -1
2.7 -1.1
2.7 -0.9
2.6 -0.8
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
140.4 2.2
144 2.6
147.4 2.4
150.7 2.2
154.2 2.3
157.9 2.4
161.6 2.4
165.5 2.4
169.4 2.4
173.3 2.3
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
14.3 3.1
14.8 3.3
15.3 3.4
15.7 3
16.2 3.1
16.8 3.7
17.4 3.2
17.8 2.8
18.3 2.7
18.9 2.9
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
28.2 1.9
28.9 2.5
29.6 2.4
30.3 2.2
30.9 2.1
31.6 2.1
32.3 2.2
33 2.2
33.7 2.1
34.3 1.9
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
4.4 21.4 2.2
4.6 21.9 2.3
4.7 22.3 2.4
4.9 22.8 2.5
5 23.2 2.6
5.2 23.7 2.6
5.3 24.1 2.7
5.5 24.7 2.8
5.6 25.1 2.8
5.8 25.6 2.9
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
2.3 2.5
2.3 2.7
2.4 2.6
2.4 2.4
2.5 2.4
2.6 2.8
2.6 3
2.7 3.2
2.8 3.4
2.9 3.1
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
7.9 1.5
8.1 2.2
8.3 2.1
8.4 2.1
8.6 2.3
8.8 2.3
9 2.3
9.2 2.3
9.5 2.3
9.7 2.3
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
17 4.2
17.7 4.1
18.3 3.5
18.8 3
19.5 3.4
20.2 3.5
20.8 3.3
21.6 3.4
22.3 3.7
23.1 3.5
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
23.7 2.7
24.3 2.6
24.9 2.5
25.5 2.4
26.1 2.3
26.7 2.4
27.4 2.5
28.1 2.5
28.8 2.6
29.5 2.4
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
23.7 1.2
24.1 1.6
24.4 1.4
24.7 1.3
25.1 1.3
25.4 1.6
25.9 1.7
26.3 1.8
26.8 1.8
27.2 1.5
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
6.7 2.1
6.8 2.4
7 2.1
7.1 2.1
7.3 2.2
7.4 1.9
7.5 1.6
7.7 1.6
7.8 1.7
7.9 1.7
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
0.7 -11
0.7 1.8
0.8 1.8
0.8 1.8
0.8 1.9
0.8 1.9
0.8 1.9
0.8 1.9
0.8 1.9
0.9 9.4
15.9 2
16.3 2
16.6 1.9
16.9 1.8
17.2 1.9
17.5 1.9
17.9 1.9
18.2 1.9
18.5 1.8
18.8 1.7
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
20023.3
20882.6
21752.1
22640.1
23585.8
24543.9
25500.3
26477.6
27493.4
28579.5
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
415.5 2.7
426.9 2.7
438.5 2.7
450.4 2.7
462.6 2.7
475.1 2.7
487.9 2.7
500.8 2.6
514 2.6
527.4 2.6
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
201.4 2.5
206.3 2.5
211.4 2.5
216.7 2.5
222.3 2.6
228.5 2.8
234.9 2.8
241.5 2.8
248.2 2.8
255.1 2.8
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
84
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
5.8
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.7
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.9
6
6331 3621 2710
6516 3708 2808
6682 3810 2873
6755 3911 2845
6867 4034 2833
6941 4109 2832
6884 4074 2810
6778 4000 2778
6692 3970 2722
6713 4033 2680
Continued
Nap l e s – M arc o I s l a n d
Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
79.9 6.2 17.1 62.8
84.9 6.2 18.2 66.7
90.1 6.1 19.3 70.8
95.5 6 20.3 75.1
101.2 6 21.4 79.7
107.2 5.9 22.6 84.6
113.3 5.8 23.8 89.5
119.8 5.7 25.1 94.7
126.6 5.6 26.5 100.1
133.7 5.6 27.9 105.8
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
43.8 4.2
45.7 4.2
47.6 4.1
49.5 4
51.4 4
53.5 3.9
55.5 3.7
57.5 3.7
59.6 3.6
61.7 3.6
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
147.7 81
152.8 82.3
158 83.5
163.2 84.6
168.5 85.7
174 86.8
179.4 87.8
184.9 88.7
190.5 89.6
196.2 90.5
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
94.7 3.5
98.1 3.6
101.5 3.4
104.9 3.4
108.4 3.3
112 3.3
115.7 3.4
119.6 3.3
123.5 3.3
127.7 3.4
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
180.2 2.4
184.9 2.6
189.3 2.4
193.2 2.1
197.1 2
201.2 2.1
205.4 2.1
209.6 2
213.8 2
217.9 1.9
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
2.6 -0.6
2.6 -0.7
2.6 -0.9
2.6 -0.8
2.5 -0.9
2.5 -0.8
2.5 -0.7
2.5 -0.6
2.5 -0.3
2.5 -0.1
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
177.6 2.5
182.3 2.6
186.7 2.4
190.7 2.1
194.6 2
198.7 2.1
202.9 2.1
207.1 2
211.4 2.1
215.4 1.9
19.5 3.7
20.3 3.8
21 3.6
21.6 2.8
22.1 2.5
22.7 2.6
23.3 2.7
23.9 2.5
24.5 2.5
25 2.1
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
35 2
35.7 1.9
36.4 1.9
37 1.7
37.6 1.7
38.3 1.7
38.9 1.7
39.6 1.8
40.3 1.8
41 1.7
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
5.9 26.1 2.9
6 26.6 2.9
6.1 27.2 3
6.1 27.7 3
6.2 28.2 3
6.3 28.8 3.1
6.3 29.4 3.1
6.4 30 3.1
6.5 30.6 3.1
6.6 31.2 3.1
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
3 3.7
3.1 4.2
3.2 3.6
3.3 2.8
3.4 2.7
3.5 2.9
3.6 3.2
3.7 3.1
3.9 3
4 2.4
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
9.9 2.6
10.2 2.6
10.4 2.4
10.7 2.3
10.9 2.2
11.2 2.3
11.4 2.2
11.6 2.1
11.9 2
12.1 1.5
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
24 3.8
25 4.2
25.9 3.5
26.7 3
27.5 3
28.3 3.1
29.2 3.1
30 2.8
30.9 2.8
31.9 3.2
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
30.3 2.6
31.1 2.8
31.9 2.4
32.6 2.2
33.2 2
33.9 2.1
34.6 2.2
35.4 2.3
36.2 2.2
37 2.1
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
27.7 2
28.3 2
28.9 1.9
29.4 1.7
29.9 1.8
30.4 1.7
30.9 1.7
31.4 1.5
31.9 1.7
32.3 1.1
8 1.5
8.2 1.5
8.3 1.6
8.4 1.6
8.5 1.5
8.7 1.6
8.8 1.3
8.9 1.1
9 1.2
9.1 1
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
0.9 -6.3
0.9 1.9
0.9 1.9
0.9 1.9
0.9 1.9
0.9 1.9
1 1.9
1 1.8
1 1.7
1.1 8
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
19.2 1.8
19.5 1.7
19.8 1.6
20.1 1.6
20.5 1.6
20.8 1.6
21.1 1.5
21.4 1.4
21.7 1.5
22 1.4
29732.2
30934.8
32158.5
33394
34654.6
35998
37419.2
38858.7
40397.3
42040.5
541 2.6
555.4 2.6
570 2.6
585 2.6
600.2 2.6
615.8 2.6
631.8 2.6
648 2.6
664.6 2.6
681.7 2.6
262.2 2.8
269.4 2.8
276.8 2.7
284.3 2.7
292 2.7
299.8 2.7
307.8 2.7
316 2.7
324.4 2.7
332.8 2.6
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
6
6.1
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.3
6.4
6.4
6.5
6.5
6691 4050 2641
6603 3979 2624
6553 3986 2567
6570 4055 2515
6570 4126 2444
6519 4176 2343
6407 4167 2240
6311 4143 2168
6270 4153 2116
6214 4156 2058
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
85
Oca l a
P r o fi l e s Comprised of Marion County only, the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area in the center of the state. The second-largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area. Quick Facts:
• Population estimate of 328,547 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 134,767 in April 2010 (Florida Research and Economic Database)
• An unemployment rate of 13.9% as of April 2010, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 18,750 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:
• Marion County Public Schools – 6,084 employees • Munroe Regional Medical Center – 2,500 employees • State of Florida (all departments) – 2,500 employees • Walmart Stores, Inc. – 2,370 employees
• Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,404 employees
• Marion County Board of County Commissioners – 1,400 employees • Ocala Regional Medical Center – 1,301 employees
• Taylor, Bean & Whitaker Mortgage Corporation – 1,238 employees • AT&T – 1,000 employees
• City of Ocala – 979 employees
Source: Ocala/Marion County Economic Development Council
Out l o o k Summarie s The Ocala MSA is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 5.4 percent annually, among the highest in the state. Per capita income level is the lowest in the state at a level of 26.5. Relative to other metro areas, Ocala will have the second lowest average annual wage level, at 39.7. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.8 percent. The metro has one of the highest expected annual population growths in the state, at 1.4 percent. The Gross Metro Product is expected to be 6,290.70 (Mill), the lowest in the state. Employment growth is expected to average a rate of 1.4 percent annually. Unemployment for the metro will be 13.0 percent, the highest in the state. The Professional and Business Services sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in Ocala, averaging an annual growth rate of 4.5 percent. The Education and Health Services sector and the Manufacturing sector follow with growth rates of 3.1 percent and 1.8 percent respectively. The Financial sector is the only sector that will experience negative growth, with a growth rate of -1.7 percent.
M etr o Ne w s Summarie s For Marion County school budget, a mixed picture
• Despite a new state budget that would give the school district another $1 per child, Marion County School District expects to be about $12 million short in their budget for the 2010-2011 school year.
• The budget deficit is due to Florida’s class-size restriction laws that become effective in 2010. Marion County projects that it will have to hire at least 200 new teachers to meet the class-size limits in every classroom. Source: The Ocala Star Banner, April 28, 2010
86
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
Oca l a
Stimulus funding keeps Cone rolling
• Cone Distributing, an Ocala-based beer manufacturer, was granted $10.2 million in taxexempt bonds to help build a new distribution center in Ocala. The center is expected to create 50 new jobs. • The funding was provided to Marion County as part of a federal stimulus package in 2009, after the county was declared an economic recovery zone.
Beloved Marion Theatre is back in business
• The Marion Theatre re-opened on May 26 after being closed for renovations since 2009. • The theatre originally opened in 1941 and has since been closed and re-opened several times.
• The theatre was re-opened by Carmike Cinemas, a Georgia-based company and showed “Sex and the City 2” as its first movie. Source: The Ocala Star Banner, May 26, 2010
Source: The Ocala Star Banner, May 5, 2010
Building Division: Marion County’s building industry is now on the rise
• In both March and April, Marion County issued over 50 single-family home building permits and over 1,000 building permits of all kinds.
• The county’s Building Division is expected to hire several new staff in order to keep up with the new permit applications. Source: The Ocala Star Banner, May 12, 2010
Businessman set to hire 30 for lab opening in August
• Businessman John H. Howard is planning to open Pathlab Services, Inc., a medical testing center that will accept samples and return them in 3 days, a turnaround that is much faster than larger companies can guarantee.
• The entire project has been done locally, including a local architect and contractors for the building. • Howard hopes to hold an open house in August for local physicians. Source: The Ocala Star Banner, May 21, 2010
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
87
Oca l a Ocala MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0
0.2
0.4
Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%
(percent)
0.6
88
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
Ocala Payroll Employment 160.0
(Thousands)
140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate
60.0
(Millions 2000 $)
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Ocala Payroll Employment
Ocala Real Personal Income
Ocala Real Gross Metro Product 18000.0 16000.0 14000.0 12000.0 10000.0 8000.0 6000.0 4000.0 2000.0
0.8
10.0%
(percent change year ago)
8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Gross Metro Product Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Personal Income
Oca l a
Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
10.5 5.7 3.5 7.1 8.5 4.1 31.8 25.7 38.3 3.4
10.7 6.1 3.5 7.2 8.6 4.9 32.2 25.9 38.6 3.3
10.8 7 3.5 7.3 8.7 5.6 32.6 26.1 38.8 3.3
10.9 5.8 3.6 7.4 8.7 4.1 32.9 26.2 39.1 2.8
11.1 5.5 3.6 7.5 8.8 3.8 33.2 26.4 39.3 2.7
11.3 5.6 3.7 7.6 8.9 3.7 33.6 26.6 39.5 2.5
11.4 5.6 3.7 7.7 9 3.8 33.9 26.7 39.8 2.4
11.6 6.1 3.8 7.8 9.1 4.3 34.3 26.9 40 2.4
11.8 6.3 3.8 8 9.2 4.4 34.7 27.1 40.3 2.5
12 6.2 3.9 8.1 9.3 4.3 34.9 27.1 40.6 2.6
12.1 5.8 4 8.1 9.3 3.8 35.1 27.1 40.9 2.8
12.3 5.5 4 8.2 9.4 3.5 35.3 27.2 41.2 3
12.4 5.4 4.1 8.3 9.5 3.4 35.6 27.3 41.5 3.1
12.6 5.4 4.2 8.4 9.6 3.5 35.9 27.3 41.8 3.1
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
90 -1.8 6.4 -1.6 83.6 -1.8 6.4 -11.1 20 -1.2 3.4 14.1 2.4 1.6 -2.9 4.5 -10.5 7.6 -0.5 12.7 2 9.6 -1.3 3.7 1.3 0.8 11.9 16.6 -0.8
90.2 -0.3 6.4 1.9 83.7 -0.5 6.3 -8.8 20.1 0.3 3.4 14.1 2.4 1.6 0.7 4.5 -2.8 7.8 1.7 12.8 2.3 9.6 0.2 3.7 -0.7 0.8 7.3 16.6 -1.2
90.5 0.6 6.5 2.7 84 0.4 6.3 -6.2 20.1 0.5 3.3 14.2 2.4 1.6 3.6 4.5 -0.4 8 5.7 12.8 1.4 9.6 0.7 3.7 1.5 0.8 -1.4 16.6 -0.5
91 1 6.5 3.6 84.5 0.9 6.3 -4.6 20.1 0.5 3.4 14.2 2.5 1.7 3 4.5 1 8.1 8.2 13 2.8 9.7 0.7 3.8 1.5 0.7 -11.8 16.6 -1
91.7 1.9 6.6 3.8 85.1 1.7 6.4 -0.7 20.2 1.2 3.4 14.3 2.5 1.7 3.8 4.6 2.3 8.3 8.4 13.1 3.3 9.7 0.6 3.8 1.5 0.7 -4.8 16.6 -0.2
92.4 2.5 6.7 4 85.7 2.4 6.4 1.8 20.4 1.9 3.5 14.5 2.5 1.7 3.4 4.7 4.1 8.4 7.4 13.3 3.6 9.7 0.8 3.8 1.6 0.7 -2.1 16.7 0.4
93.1 2.9 6.8 4.8 86.3 2.7 6.5 4.5 20.6 2.7 3.5 14.6 2.6 1.7 3 4.7 4.5 8.5 5.6 13.3 3.6 9.8 1.4 3.8 1.3 0.7 -1.3 16.7 0.9
94 3.3 6.9 4.9 87.1 3.2 6.7 6.4 20.9 3.7 3.5 14.7 2.6 1.7 2.5 4.7 4 8.5 4.6 13.4 3.4 9.9 2.2 3.8 1.1 0.7 -0.6 16.8 1.4
94.9 3.5 6.9 4.8 88 3.4 6.8 7.2 21.1 4.1 3.6 14.8 2.7 1.7 2.6 4.8 3.7 8.6 4.5 13.5 2.8 10 3.2 3.8 1.2 0.7 -0.2 16.9 1.7
95.8 3.6 7 4.3 88.8 3.6 6.9 8 21.3 4.2 3.6 14.9 2.7 1.7 2.8 4.8 3 8.8 4.9 13.6 2.5 10.1 3.9 3.8 1.3 0.7 0.1 17 2
96.6 3.7 7 3.8 89.6 3.7 7.1 9 21.5 4.2 3.6 15 2.7 1.7 3 4.8 2.4 9 6 13.6 2.4 10.1 3.7 3.8 1.3 0.7 0.3 17.1 2.2
97.5 3.7 7.1 3.4 90.4 3.7 7.3 9.1 21.7 4.1 3.7 15.2 2.8 1.7 3.2 4.8 2 9.1 7.1 13.7 2.2 10.2 3.1 3.8 1.2 0.7 0.2 17.2 2.4
98.2 3.5 7.1 2.8 91.1 3.6 7.4 9 21.9 3.9 3.7 15.3 2.8 1.8 3.2 4.9 1.8 9.3 7.3 13.8 1.9 10.2 2.5 3.9 1 0.7 0.2 17.3 2.5
98.9 3.3 7.1 2.3 91.8 3.4 7.5 8.6 22 3.5 3.7 15.4 2.8 1.8 2.9 4.9 1.5 9.4 7.4 13.8 1.7 10.3 2.1 3.9 0.8 0.7 0.1 17.4 2.5
5983.6 330.6 0.5 137.4 1.5 15.1 888 945 -57
6020.9 331.2 0.6 138.6 2.4 15 1081 1118 -38
6058.3 331.9 0.7 139.7 3.3 14.6 1453 1422 31
6107.2 332.9 0.8 140.7 3.4 14.2 1925 1877 48
6171.6 334 1 141.8 3.2 13.8 2448 2384 63
6236.3 335.4 1.3 142.9 3.1 13.3 2912 2850 61
6297.4 336.9 1.5 144 3.1 12.9 3216 3128 88
6369.5 338.6 1.7 144.7 2.9 12.4 3509 3410 99
6442.4 340.5 1.9 145.4 2.5 11.8 3776 3661 115
6514.1 342.5 2.1 145.8 2 11.5 3860 3728 132
6570.9 344.6 2.3 146.2 1.6 11.1 3896 3752 144
6637.6 346.9 2.5 146.7 1.4 10.7 4027 3873 154
6702.9 349.3 2.6 147.3 1.3 10.4 4103 3941 162
6763.4 351.7 2.7 147.9 1.4 10.2 4090 3924 167
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
89
Oca l a
Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
6.9 7.4 2.7 4.2
7.7 11 3 4.7
8.6 11.9 3.3 5.3
9.6 11.7 3.7 5.9
10 3.6 3.7 6.2
10.2 2.6 3.7 6.5
10 -2.1 3.5 6.5
10.4 4.1 3.5 7
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
6.6 5.3
7.1 8.1
7.7 8.6
8.4 8.7
8.5 0.9
8.4 -0.8
8.2 -2.3
8.4 2.5
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
24.7 23.4
26.4 24.4
28.4 25.5
30.5 26.7
30.8 26.2
31.2 25.7
30.4 25
31.5 25.5
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
30.1 6
30.9 2.6
32.2 4
34.5 7.3
34.8 0.9
36.1 3.8
37 2.4
38.1 2.9
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
89.9 3.4
95.9 6.6
101.5 5.9
106.1 4.5
106.8 0.6
101.9 -4.6
92.8 -9
90.1 -2.9
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
9.2 -1
9.6 4
9.9 3.6
9.9 -0.7
9.6 -3
8.3 -13.9
6.6 -20.2
6.4 -3.5
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
80.7 3.9
86.3 6.9
91.6 6.2
96.2 5.1
97.2 1
93.6 -3.6
86.2 -8
83.7 -2.9
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
8.5 15.3
9.9 16.7
10.7 8.8
12.6 17
11.6 -7.6
9.6 -16.9
7.4 -23.5
6.5 -12.1
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
20.9 2
21.7 3.6
22.9 5.6
23.4 1.9
23.8 1.8
22.7 -4.5
20.5 -9.8
20 -2.3
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
3.3 15.1 2.5
3.6 15.6 2.5
3.9 16.3 2.7
4.2 16.4 2.7
4.4 16.4 2.9
4.1 15.7 2.9
3.5 14.5 2.5
3.4 14.1 2.4
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
2.2 -5.1
2.2 1.2
2.2 -2.3
2.1 -1.9
2 -7.2
1.9 -3
1.7 -11.5
1.6 -5
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
4.3 9.2
4.9 12.5
5.4 11.1
5.8 6
6 3.6
5.9 -0.6
5.2 -11.6
4.5 -14.2
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
7.6 4.8
8.2 7.5
8.9 9.5
9.3 4.1
8.5 -8.2
8.1 -4.6
7.7 -5.1
7.6 -1.2
10.5 8.5
11.1 6
12 7.7
12.7 5.8
13.3 4.8
13.5 1.5
12.7 -6.2
12.7 0.5
7.7 0.9
8.7 13.1
9.2 6.3
9.7 4.8
10.6 9.5
10.4 -2
9.9 -5
9.6 -2.6
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
3.6 -1.6
3.8 7.7
4 5.2
4.1 1.9
4.3 4.6
3.9 -8.6
3.6 -7.8
3.7 2.2
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
0.7 -2.3
0.7 0
0.7 0.1
0.7 0
0.7 0
0.7 2.3
0.7 1
0.8 9.2
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
14.7 0.4
15.1 2.4
15.4 2.3
16 3.5
16.4 2.9
16.8 2.1
16.8 0
16.7 -0.8
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
4937.1
5367.2
5881.4
6243.7
6270.6
6136.2
5781
5944.9
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
280.7 3.1
291.4 3.8
303.3 4.1
314.9 3.8
323.2 2.7
327.2 1.2
328.7 0.5
330.4 0.5
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
114.3 2.3
118.9 4
126.8 6.7
132.8 4.8
136.5 2.7
138.1 1.1
136 -1.5
136.8 0.6
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
90
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
5.4
4.6
3.7
3.4
4.5
7.8
12.9
15.1
6718 5982 736
5083 4994 88
7166 6606 559
7214 6862 352
3121 2808 313
1202 1186 16
411 398 13
825 844 -19
Continued
Oca l a
Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
11 5.9 3.6 7.4
11.7 6.1 3.8 7.9
12.3 5.5 4.1 8.3
13.2 6.9 4.3 8.9
14.1 6.9 4.6 9.6
15.1 6.9 4.8 10.3
16.1 6.8 5.1 11
17.2 6.5 5.4 11.8
18.3 6.7 5.6 12.7
19.5 6.6 5.9 13.6
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
8.8 4.3
9.2 4.2
9.5 3.5
9.9 4.9
10.4 4.8
10.9 4.8
11.4 4.7
11.9 4.4
12.5 4.7
13.1 4.7
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
33.1 26.3
34.5 27
35.5 27.2
36.9 27.8
38.4 28.4
40 29
41.6 29.6
43.2 30.1
45 30.7
46.9 31.4
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
39.2 2.8
40.2 2.5
41.4 3
42.7 3.2
44.1 3.3
45.6 3.4
47.1 3.4
48.7 3.4
50.4 3.4
52 3.3
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
91.4 1.5
94.4 3.3
97.8 3.6
100.5 2.7
102.9 2.4
105.2 2.3
107.3 2
109.3 1.8
111.2 1.8
113.2 1.8
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
6.6 3.5
6.9 4.7
7.1 3.1
7.2 1
7.1 -0.3
7.1 -0.8
7 -0.8
7 -0.6
6.9 -0.9
6.9 -0.8
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
84.8 1.3
87.6 3.2
90.7 3.6
93.3 2.9
95.7 2.6
98.1 2.5
100.3 2.2
102.3 2
104.3 2
106.3 2
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
6.3 -2.5
6.7 6.6
7.3 8.9
7.8 5.6
8 3.1
8.3 3.6
8.6 3.4
8.8 3.1
9 1.8
9.2 1.9
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
20.2 1
21 3.7
21.8 3.9
22.3 2.6
22.8 2
23.1 1.3
23.3 1
23.6 1.2
23.9 1.3
24.2 1.1
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
3.4 14.3 2.5
3.5 14.8 2.6
3.7 15.2 2.8
3.8 15.6 2.9
3.9 15.8 3
3.9 15.9 3.1
4 15.9 3.2
4 16.1 3.3
4.1 16.3 3.3
4.1 16.5 3.3
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
1.7 3.5
1.7 2.7
1.8 3.1
1.8 2
1.8 1.6
1.8 1.8
1.9 1.9
1.9 1.4
1.9 1.4
2 1
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
4.6 1.8
4.7 3.8
4.8 1.9
4.9 1.2
5 1.4
5 1.4
5.1 1.3
5.2 1
5.2 1.2
5.3 1
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
8.2 7.4
8.6 4.9
9.2 7
9.8 6.6
10.5 6.9
11.2 7.1
11.9 5.8
12.4 4.5
13 4.8
13.6 4.7
13.1 2.8
13.5 3.1
13.7 2.1
14.1 2.5
14.5 2.9
15 3.5
15.4 2.9
15.9 2.8
16.3 2.7
16.7 2.8
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
9.7 0.7
9.9 2.7
10.2 2.8
10.3 1.4
10.5 1
10.6 1
10.6 0.8
10.7 0.7
10.8 1
10.9 0.5
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
3.8 1.5
3.8 1.2
3.8 1.1
3.9 1.4
3.9 1.2
4 1
4 1
4.1 0.7
4.1 0.8
4.1 0.9
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
0.7 -5.2
0.7 -0.5
0.7 0.2
0.8 0.6
0.8 1.1
0.8 1.4
0.8 1.5
0.8 1.6
0.8 1.7
0.9 14.8
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
16.6 -0.3
16.9 1.5
17.3 2.4
17.6 2.2
18 2.1
18.3 1.8
18.6 1.8
18.9 1.6
19.2 1.5
19.5 1.3
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
6143.4
6405.8
6668.7
6951.6
7231.8
7524.3
7801.6
8079.2
8374
8673.6
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
333.6 0.9
339.6 1.8
348.1 2.5
357.7 2.7
367.3 2.7
377 2.7
387.1 2.7
397.1 2.6
406.9 2.5
416.3 2.3
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
141.2 3.2
145 2.6
147 1.4
149.2 1.5
152.4 2.1
155.5 2
158.6 2
161.8 2
165 2
167.9 1.8
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
14
12.1
10.6
9.6
9.2
8.8
8.3
7.9
7.4
7
2184 2133 51
3590 3482 109
4029 3872 157
4050 3877 173
4046 3861 185
4130 3935 195
4144 3941 202
4137 3924 212
4197 3973 224
4235 4007 227
Continued
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
91
Oca l a
Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
20.7 6.3 6.2 14.5
22 6 6.6 15.4
23.3 5.8 6.9 16.4
24.6 5.7 7.2 17.4
26 5.7 7.6 18.4
27.5 5.8 8 19.5
29.1 5.9 8.4 20.7
30.7 5.6 8.9 21.9
32.4 5.5 9.3 23.1
34.2 5.5 9.8 24.4
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
13.7 4.4
14.2 4.2
14.8 3.9
15.4 3.8
15.9 3.8
16.5 3.9
17.2 3.9
17.8 3.7
18.5 3.6
19.1 3.5
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
48.7 32.1
50.6 32.7
52.4 33.3
54.2 33.8
56.1 34.3
58 34.9
60.1 35.5
62.2 36.1
64.3 36.6
66.4 37.1
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
53.8 3.3
55.5 3.3
57.3 3.3
59.2 3.2
61.2 3.3
63.3 3.4
65.5 3.5
67.7 3.4
70.1 3.5
72.5 3.5
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
115.1 1.7
117.5 2
119.6 1.8
121.5 1.6
123.6 1.7
125.8 1.8
127.9 1.7
130.1 1.7
132.5 1.8
134.7 1.7
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
6.8 -1.8
6.6 -2.1
6.5 -2.3
6.3 -2.1
6.2 -1.9
6.1 -1.7
6 -1.6
5.9 -1.6
5.8 -1.4
5.7 -1.2
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
108.4 1.9
110.9 2.3
113.2 2.1
115.2 1.8
117.4 1.9
119.7 2
121.9 1.9
124.2 1.9
126.6 1.9
129 1.9
9.4 2.4
9.6 2.6
9.9 2.6
10.1 2.2
10.3 2.3
10.6 2.9
10.9 2.4
11.1 1.9
11.3 1.9
11.5 2.1
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
24.5 1.4
25 2
25.5 1.9
25.9 1.6
26.3 1.6
26.7 1.5
27.1 1.5
27.5 1.5
27.9 1.4
28.2 1.2
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
4.2 16.6 3.4
4.3 16.9 3.5
4.4 17.1 3.6
4.5 17.4 3.8
4.5 17.6 3.9
4.6 17.8 3.9
4.6 18.1 4
4.7 18.4 4.1
4.8 18.6 4.2
4.8 18.8 4.2
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
2 1.3
2 1.6
2 1.5
2.1 1.1
2.1 1.1
2.1 1.5
2.1 1.6
2.2 1.8
2.2 2
2.3 1.7
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
5.3 0.9
5.4 1.6
5.5 1.6
5.6 1.5
5.7 1.8
5.8 1.7
5.9 1.7
6 1.8
6.1 1.8
6.2 1.8
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
14.4 5.6
15.2 5.4
15.9 4.4
16.4 3.4
17.1 4.1
17.8 4.3
18.4 3.7
19.2 3.8
20 4.3
20.8 4.1
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
17.1 2.1
17.4 2
17.8 2
18.1 1.9
18.4 1.8
18.8 1.8
19.1 1.9
19.5 1.9
19.9 2
20.3 1.9
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
11 0.8
11.1 1.3
11.2 1.1
11.3 0.9
11.4 0.9
11.6 1.1
11.7 1.3
11.9 1.3
12 1.4
12.1 1
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
4.2 1.6
4.3 1.9
4.3 1.6
4.4 1.6
4.5 1.7
4.5 1.3
4.6 1.1
4.6 1.1
4.7 1.1
4.7 1.1
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
0.8 -9.9
0.8 1.3
0.9 1.4
0.9 1.4
0.9 1.4
0.9 1.4
0.9 1.4
0.9 1.4
0.9 1.4
1 9
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
19.7 1.3
20 1.3
20.2 1.3
20.5 1.1
20.7 1.2
20.9 1.1
21.2 1.1
21.4 1.1
21.6 1.1
21.8 1
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
8975.8
9310.8
9644
9973.9
10327.6
10680.6
11024.8
11374.4
11738.5
12127.5
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
425.6 2.2
434.9 2.2
444.4 2.2
454 2.2
463.8 2.2
473.9 2.2
484.1 2.2
494.4 2.1
504.9 2.1
515.5 2.1
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
170.7 1.7
173.6 1.7
176.6 1.7
179.7 1.8
183.1 1.9
186.8 2
190.6 2.1
194.6 2.1
198.6 2.1
202.7 2.1
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
92
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
6.8
6.6
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.7
6.7
6.8
6.8
6.9
4166 3941 225
4204 3980 225
4218 3999 219
4239 4027 212
4303 4095 209
4338 4132 206
4260 4058 201
4145 3948 197
4072 3882 190
4091 3906 185
Continued
Oca l a
Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
36.1 5.5 10.3 25.7
38.1 5.6 10.9 27.2
40.2 5.4 11.5 28.7
42.3 5.3 12.1 30.2
44.5 5.2 12.6 31.9
46.9 5.3 13.2 33.6
49.2 5.1 13.9 35.4
51.7 5.1 14.5 37.2
54.3 5 15.2 39.1
57 5 15.9 41.1
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
19.8 3.5
20.5 3.6
21.2 3.4
21.9 3.3
22.6 3.3
23.4 3.3
24.1 3.1
24.8 3
25.6 2.9
26.3 2.9
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
68.5 37.6
70.8 38.1
73.1 38.6
75.4 39.1
77.7 39.5
80.1 40
82.5 40.4
84.9 40.7
87.3 41.1
89.8 41.4
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
75 3.5
77.7 3.5
80.3 3.4
83 3.3
85.8 3.3
88.6 3.3
91.5 3.3
94.5 3.3
97.6 3.3
100.9 3.4
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
137.2 1.9
140.1 2.1
142.6 1.8
144.7 1.5
146.7 1.4
148.8 1.5
151 1.5
153 1.3
155 1.3
157 1.3
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
5.7 -1
5.6 -1.1
5.6 -1.3
5.5 -1.2
5.4 -1.3
5.3 -1.2
5.3 -1.2
5.2 -1.1
5.2 -0.7
5.2 -0.5
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
131.6 2
134.5 2.2
137 1.9
139.2 1.6
141.2 1.5
143.5 1.6
145.7 1.6
147.8 1.4
149.8 1.4
151.8 1.3
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
11.8 2.8
12.2 2.9
12.5 2.7
12.8 1.9
13 1.7
13.2 1.8
13.5 1.9
13.7 1.7
13.9 1.7
14.1 1.3
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
28.6 1.2
28.9 1.1
29.2 1.2
29.5 1
29.8 0.9
30.1 1
30.4 1
30.7 1
31 1
31.3 0.9
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
4.8 19.1 4.3
4.8 19.3 4.3
4.8 19.6 4.3
4.8 19.9 4.4
4.8 20.1 4.4
4.8 20.4 4.4
4.8 20.6 4.4
4.7 20.9 4.4
4.7 21.2 4.4
4.7 21.5 4.4
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
2.3 2.3
2.4 2.9
2.4 2.3
2.5 1.5
2.5 1.3
2.5 1.5
2.6 1.8
2.6 1.8
2.7 1.6
2.7 1.1
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
6.3 2
6.4 2
6.5 1.8
6.7 1.7
6.8 1.7
6.9 1.8
7 1.6
7.1 1.5
7.2 1.5
7.3 0.9
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
21.7 4.6
22.9 5.2
23.7 3.8
24.5 3.1
25.2 2.9
26 3.2
26.8 3.1
27.5 2.5
28.2 2.5
29 2.9
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
20.7 2
21.1 2.2
21.5 1.9
21.9 1.6
22.2 1.4
22.5 1.5
22.8 1.5
23.2 1.6
23.6 1.5
23.9 1.4
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
12.3 1.5
12.5 1.6
12.7 1.5
12.9 1.3
13 1.4
13.2 1.3
13.4 1.2
13.5 1
13.7 1.3
13.8 0.6
4.8 1
4.8 1
4.9 1
4.9 1
5 0.9
5 1
5.1 0.7
5.1 0.6
5.1 0.6
5.1 0.4
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
0.9 -7.7
1 1.4
1 1.4
1 1.4
1 1.4
1 1.4
1 1.4
1 1.4
1 1.3
1.1 7.6
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
22.1 1
22.3 1
22.5 0.9
22.7 0.8
22.8 0.8
23 0.8
23.2 0.7
23.3 0.6
23.5 0.5
23.6 0.4
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
12539.3
12967.8
13393.4
13816.8
14244.4
14701.1
15180
15655.3
16162.2
16704.9
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
526.6 2.1
537.8 2.1
549.2 2.1
560.8 2.1
572.6 2.1
584.7 2.1
597 2.1
609.4 2.1
622.1 2.1
635 2.1
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
206.8 2
211 2
215.2 2
219.5 2
223.8 2
228.2 1.9
232.5 1.9
237 1.9
241.5 1.9
246 1.8
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
6.9
7
7.1
7.1
7.2
7.2
7.3
7.3
7.4
7.4
4066 3885 180
3959 3781 178
3924 3752 173
3949 3781 168
3976 3812 163
3982 3826 156
3935 3786 149
3876 3733 143
3850 3712 139
3831 3697 134
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
93
Or l a n d o – Ki s s immee
P r o fi l e s The Orlando–Kissimmee MSA is comprised of Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole counties. Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World and numerous other Disney enterprises, Universal Studios, and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic, the Orlando Predators arena football team, and Atlanta Braves spring training at Disney’s Wide World of Sports. The University of Central Florida, the nation’s third-largest university, and many other places of higher education also reside in the MSA. QUICK FACTS:
• Metro population estimate of 2,082,421 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)
• Lake County population estimate of 312,119 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Orange County population estimate of 1,086,480 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)
• Osceola County population estimate of 270,618 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Seminole County population estimate of 413,204 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force for the MSA of 1,115,139 in April 2010 (Florida Research and Economic Database)
• An unemployment rate of 11.4% as of April 2010, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 126,587 unemployed people in the Orlando MSA. (Florida Research and Economic Database) TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:
• Walt Disney Co. – 62,200 employees
• Orange County Public Schools – 23,228 employees • Florida State Government – 19,500 employees • Florida Hospital (Adventist Health System) – 16,002 employees
• Publix Super Markets Inc. – 15,606 employees • Universal Orlando – 13,000 employees 94
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
• Federal Government – 12,700 employees
• University of Central Florida – 10,152 employees • Orlando Regional Healthcare System – 10,000 employees • Seminole County Public Schools – 9,984 employees
Sources: Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission, Agency for Workforce Innovation, and Orlando Business Journal
Out l o o k Summarie s The Orlando–Kissimmee area is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to grow at a rate of 5.2 percent annually. The per capita income level is expected to be 29.5. Average annual wage growth will be 2.8 percent, and average annual wage will be at a level of 45.6. The Orlando MSA will see population growth of 1.4 percent, one of the highest in the state. Gross Metro Product is expected to be one of the highest in the state, averaging 86,501.75 (Mill). Employment growth is forecasted to average 1.4 percent annually, one of the highest in the state. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 10.3 percent. In the Orlando area, the fastest growing sectors are expected to be Manufacturing and Education and Health Services, both with an average annual growth rate of 3.1 percent. This will be followed by Trade, Transportation and Utilities, with an average annual growth rate of 1.8 percent. The only sector that will experience negative growth is the Federal Government sector, with an average annual rate of growth of -0.9 percent.
Or l a n d o – Ki s s immee
M etr o Ne w s Summarie s UCF gets $7.6M for health IT center
• The University of Central Florida was awarded through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act $7.6 million to establish a health information technology regional extension center. • Practitioners will be able to use the center as a resource for technical assistance, guidance, and information on best practices. • The Recovery Act’s health IT program has already awarded more than $375 million to regional extension centers.
Source: Orlando Business Journal, April 6, 2010
Orange County’s hotel-tax revenue improved in March
• Orange County reported a 14% increase in hotel tax collection in March over the prior year. This is the first double-digit increase since October 2007.
• The county collected $15.9 million in March from the tourist-development tax, which comes from short-term rentals such as hotels and motels. • Average occupancy rates were also up over the same period, with an increase of more than 9%, the largest gain in nearly four years. Source: Orlando Sentinel, May 3, 2010
Disney to build 2,000-room Art of Animation Resort
• Walt Disney World will begin construction on a new 2,000-room resort this summer, expected to open in 2012.
• Some interpret this announcement as a sign that Disney is adapting with the changing economy. The company appears to be optimistic about the recovery, but recognizes that travelers will continue their “frugal spending habits.” • The company expects the project to create approximately 800 new construction jobs. Source: Orlando Sentinel, May 12, 2010
Lockheed Martin awarded $40M contract
• Lockheed Martin Corporation was awarded a $40 million contract by the Royal Saudi Air Force.
• The contract is for Lockheed’s Sniper Advanced Targeting Pods, which are produced at Lockheed Martin Missiles & Fire Control, located in Orlando. • This is the second purchase by the Royal Saudi Air Force for the Sniper ATPs; the first was in March 2009.
Source: Orlando Business Journal, May 20, 2010
Dr. Phillips Charities awards $4.6M
• Dr. Phillips Charities awarded more than $4.6 million to local nonprofits.
• Nonprofits that received awards include Junior Achievement of Central Florida, which received a $75,000 grant, Central Florida YMCA, which received $4.5 million, Osceola County Council on Aging Inc., which received a $69,890 pledge, Edgewood Ranch Endowment Inc., which received a $12,500 pledge, and the Coalition for Property Rights Inc. which received a $10,000 grant. Source: Orlando Business Journal, June 3, 2010
• The Art of Animation Resort will be priced as a “value” hotel, with rates priced on the lower end of Disney’s range of resorts.
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
95
Or l a n d o – Ki s s immee Orlando - Kissimee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0
0.2
0.4
Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate (percent)
14.0% 12.0%
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
Orlando Payroll Employment 1800.0
(Thousands)
1600.0
1200.0 1000.0 800.0
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate
600.0
250000.0
(Millions 2000 $)
200000.0 150000.0 100000.0 50000.0 0.0
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Gross Metro Product Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Orlando Payroll Employment
Orlando Real Personal Income
Orlando Real Gross Metro Product
96
0.8
1400.0
10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%
0.6
10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0%
(percent change year ago)
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Personal Income
Or l a n d o – Ki s s immee
Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
75 5.6 43.8 31.2 60.6 4 35.5 28.7 43.9 3.4
75.9 5.8 44.2 31.7 61.1 4.5 35.9 28.9 44.3 3.3
76.9 6.5 44.7 32.2 61.6 5.1 36.2 29 44.6 3.4
77.7 4.8 45.1 32.5 62 3.1 36.5 29.1 44.9 3
78.6 4.8 45.7 32.9 62.5 3.1 36.8 29.3 45.1 2.8
79.7 4.9 46.3 33.4 63 3.1 37.2 29.4 45.4 2.5
80.9 5.2 47 33.9 63.7 3.4 37.6 29.6 45.7 2.4
82.1 5.7 47.6 34.5 64.4 3.9 38.1 29.9 46 2.4
83.3 6 48.3 35 65 4.1 38.5 30 46.3 2.5
84.5 6.1 49.1 35.4 65.6 4.1 38.9 30.2 46.6 2.7
85.6 5.9 49.8 35.8 66.2 3.9 39.2 30.3 47 2.9
86.9 5.9 50.6 36.3 66.9 3.9 39.6 30.4 47.4 3
88.2 5.9 51.3 36.9 67.5 3.9 39.9 30.6 47.7 3.2
89.4 5.9 52 37.4 68.2 3.9 40.3 30.7 48.1 3.2
1008.3 1.5 39.7 4.4 968.6 1.3 46.2 -0.4 185.7 1.3 40.8 114 30.8 25.3 5.1 62 1 171.8 3.6 124.4 2.8 189 -0.2 48.8 1.3 11.7 -5.7 103.7 -0.1
1015.3 2 40.3 4.6 975.1 1.9 46.8 2.1 187.5 2.1 41.3 115.1 31.3 25.5 4.4 62.6 2.9 173.5 3.7 125.6 3.2 189.1 0 48.9 1.3 11.6 -2.1 104 0.4
1023.6 2.6 40.8 5.3 982.8 2.5 47.6 4.8 189.4 3 41.8 116 31.8 25.7 3.6 63.1 3.5 174.7 3.3 126.7 3.7 190.6 0.8 49 0.9 11.6 -1.4 104.5 0.9
1032 3 41.4 5.4 990.7 2.9 48.7 6.9 191.2 3.7 42.2 116.8 32.2 25.7 2.4 63.5 3.4 175.4 3 128.1 4 192.4 1.7 49 0.7 11.6 -0.8 105 1.5
1040.6 3.2 41.8 5.3 998.8 3.1 49.8 7.8 193.1 4 42.6 117.6 32.6 25.8 1.9 63.9 3.1 176.3 2.6 129.4 4 194.1 2.7 49.2 0.9 11.6 -0.5 105.7 1.9
1048.9 3.3 42.2 4.9 1006.6 3.2 51 9 194.9 4 43.1 118.3 33 25.9 1.7 64.2 2.6 177.2 2.1 130.5 3.9 195.6 3.4 49.4 1 11.6 -0.3 106.3 2.2
1056.7 3.2 42.6 4.3 1014.1 3.2 52.2 9.7 196.7 3.9 43.5 118.9 33.3 26.1 1.7 64.4 2.1 178.3 2.1 131.2 3.6 196.9 3.4 49.5 1 11.6 -0.2 107 2.4
1064.3 3.1 42.9 3.8 1021.4 3.1 53.6 10 198.4 3.7 43.8 119.9 33.6 26.3 2.2 64.6 1.9 179.4 2.3 132.3 3.3 197.9 2.9 49.6 1.2 11.6 -0.1 107.7 2.5
1071.3 2.9 43.2 3.3 1028.1 2.9 54.8 10 199.9 3.5 44.2 120.7 33.9 26.4 2.3 64.9 1.7 180.6 2.4 133.2 3 198.6 2.3 49.8 1.2 11.6 0.1 108.3 2.5
1077.7 2.7 43.4 2.7 1034.3 2.7 55.9 9.7 201 3.1 44.4 121.4 34.1 26.5 2.2 65.2 1.5 181.8 2.6 134.1 2.7 199.4 1.9 50 1.3 11.6 0.2 108.9 2.5
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
993.8 -0.6 38 1.3 955.7 -0.7 46.4 -11.6 183.3 -0.4 39.4 112.7 29.5 24.1 -2.5 61.3 -1.4 165.8 -1.2 121.1 2.4 189.4 0.4 48.1 0.1 12.4 3.2 103.8 -0.5
995 0 38.5 4.2 956.5 -0.2 45.8 -7 183.6 0.9 39.4 112.8 29.6 24.4 -0.6 60.8 -2.4 167.4 0.3 121.7 3.3 189.1 -0.8 48.3 0.6 11.9 -0.9 103.6 -1.3
998 0.6 38.8 4.7 959.3 0.4 45.4 -5.1 183.9 1.1 39.6 113.1 29.9 24.8 2.5 61 -1.8 169.1 1.7 122.1 2.4 189.1 0.1 48.6 1.4 11.8 -2.4 103.5 -1.4
1002.3 0.7 39.2 4.2 963.1 0.5 45.5 -4.4 184.3 0.6 40.1 113.4 30.3 25.1 4.7 61.4 -0.3 170.4 2.7 123.2 2.3 189.2 0 48.7 1.4 11.7 -13.2 103.5 -0.9
82578.3 83042.4 83488.4 84071.6 84882.7 85716.8 86584.1 87485.7 88378.3 89233.3 89895.4 90653.9 2110.4 2115.5 2121.2 2127.3 2133.6 2140.7 2148.3 2156.1 2165.1 2174.6 2185 2196.4 1.1 1 1 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 1129.3 1130.6 1132.8 1134.5 1137.3 1140.8 1144 1148.1 1152.3 1156.9 1162.1 1167.2 1.2 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.9 1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.7 12.3 12.2 11.8 11.4 11 10.5 10 9.6 9.1 8.8 8.5 8.1 4464 5600 8890 11526 13986 15617 17735 19691 21329 22201 22726 23623 5979 6570 7828 9908 11867 13528 14985 16555 17753 18141 18323 18990 -1515 -970 1062 1618 2119 2089 2750 3135 3577 4059 4403 4634
91430 92145.8 2208.4 2221 2 2.1 1172.7 1178.5 1.8 1.9 7.9 7.7 24199 24267 19384 19343 4815 4923
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
97
Or l a n d o – Ki s s immee
Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
53.1 5.9 33.2 19.9
58.1 9.4 36.3 21.7
64 10.2 40.2 23.8
69.9 9.3 43.5 26.5
72.4 3.5 45.2 27.2
73.6 1.7 45.2 28.4
71.6 -2.8 43.1 28.5
74.3 3.8 43.6 30.7
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
50.4 3.8
53.7 6.6
57.5 7
61.1 6.4
61.6 0.8
60.6 -1.6
58.8 -3
60.1 2.2
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
29.3 27.8
31 28.6
32.9 29.5
34.9 30.5
35.5 30.2
35.7 29.4
34.3 28.2
35.3 28.5
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
35.7 3.9
37.4 4.8
39.1 4.6
40.6 3.6
41.1 1.4
41.8 1.7
42.5 1.6
43.7 2.8
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
924.7 2
967.5 4.6
1022.8 5.7
1067.5 4.4
1094.7 2.6
1076.3 -1.7
1009.2 -6.2
994.1 -1.5
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
43.2 -4.9
44.1 2.2
45.3 2.7
44.5 -1.9
44.1 -0.8
42.3 -4.1
38.1 -10
37.8 -0.7
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
881.6 2.4
923.4 4.7
977.5 5.9
1023 4.7
1050.6 2.7
1034 -1.6
971.1 -6.1
956.3 -1.5
66 7.4
74.2 12.5
84.4 13.7
91.2 8
85.4 -6.4
72.7 -14.8
54.9 -24.5
46.9 -14.5
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
173.4 1
181.7 4.8
192.8 6.1
198.8 3.1
204 2.6
200.8 -1.6
186 -7.4
183 -1.6
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
40 107.4 25.9
42 113.5 26.2
44.7 120.1 28
46.2 122.3 30.3
47.2 123.7 33
45.8 121.9 33.1
40.6 115.2 30.2
39.4 112.8 29.6
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
23.1 2.5
23.8 3
24.7 3.9
25.8 4.6
26.8 3.7
26.3 -1.8
25 -4.9
24.2 -3.5
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
57.4 4.8
59.5 3.7
63.7 7.1
67 5.2
67.8 1.1
66.5 -1.9
63.1 -5.2
61.4 -2.6
148.8 -0.9
153.4 3
165.7 8
178.3 7.6
186.9 4.8
182.6 -2.3
169 -7.4
166.3 -1.6
93.6 4.7
97.3 4
102.2 5
107.5 5.2
112.7 4.8
116.4 3.3
117.6 1
120.6 2.6
169.9 3
179.4 5.6
183.6 2.4
186.9 1.8
193.6 3.6
199.6 3.1
190.3 -4.6
189.2 -0.6
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
45.7 0.7
47.5 4
49.9 4.9
53.4 7.1
55.8 4.5
51.4 -7.9
48.3 -6.1
48.1 -0.4
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
11.1 7
11.2 1.2
11.8 5.2
11.4 -3.5
11.5 0.4
11.8 2.8
12.1 2.6
12.4 3.1
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
92.6 2.6
95.4 3
98.7 3.5
102.7 4.1
106.2 3.4
105.9 -0.3
104.8 -1
104.2 -0.6
66200.2
70529.1
77201.4
81834.6
83646.6
83747.6
80767.3
82515.5
1812.3 2.8
1876.3 3.5
1946.4 3.7
2002.7 2.9
2037.6 1.7
2063.4 1.3
2085.3 1.1
2107.7 1.1
934 1.7
963.3 3.1
1007.5 4.6
1050.4 4.3
1093.4 4.1
1121.1 2.5
1119.1 -0.2
1127.7 0.8
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
98
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
5.1
4.4
3.5
3.1
3.8
5.9
10.5
12.3
27587 22304 5283
32387 26186 6201
33902 26861 7040
30379 24302 6077
18042 12556 5486
10247 5554 4693
4694 3827 867
5697 5984 -287
Continued
Or l a n d o – Ki s s immee
Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
78.2 5.2 45.4 32.8
82.7 5.7 48 34.7
87.5 5.9 50.9 36.6
93.4 6.7 53.8 39.6
99.3 6.4 56.7 42.6
105.6 6.3 59.8 45.8
112 6.1 62.9 49.1
118.5 5.8 66.1 52.4
125.6 6 69.5 56.2
133.1 5.9 72.8 60.3
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
62.3 3.6
64.7 3.9
67.2 3.9
70.3 4.6
73.3 4.3
76.5 4.2
79.5 4
82.5 3.7
85.8 4
89.2 4
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
36.7 29.2
38.3 29.9
39.7 30.5
41.4 31.2
43 31.8
44.7 32.3
46.2 32.8
47.8 33.3
49.5 33.8
51.3 34.4
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
45 2.9
46.1 2.5
47.5 3.1
49.1 3.4
50.8 3.4
52.6 3.5
54.4 3.4
56.3 3.4
58.2 3.4
60 3.2
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
1006 1.2
1036.3 3
1067.5 3
1091.7 2.3
1112.7 1.9
1134.1 1.9
1153.1 1.7
1171.4 1.6
1190.5 1.6
1208.7 1.5
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
39.5 4.5
41.6 5.2
43 3.5
43.6 1.3
43.5 -0.1
43.3 -0.6
43 -0.6
42.8 -0.4
42.6 -0.6
42.3 -0.6
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
966.5 1.1
994.7 2.9
1024.5 3
1048.1 2.3
1069.2 2
1090.8 2
1110.1 1.8
1128.5 1.7
1147.9 1.7
1166.4 1.6
46 -2
49.3 7.2
54.1 9.8
57.6 6.5
60.2 4.5
63 4.7
65.7 4.2
68.2 3.9
70 2.6
71.9 2.7
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
185.3 1.3
192.2 3.7
199 3.6
204 2.5
208.6 2.2
211.7 1.5
214.4 1.2
217.3 1.4
220.2 1.3
222.8 1.2
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
40.5 113.9 30.6
42.4 117.2 32.4
44 120.2 33.7
45.3 122.7 34.8
46.6 124.3 35.9
47.6 124.9 37.1
48.6 125.2 38.2
49.7 126 39.1
50.8 127.2 39.6
52 128.4 40
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
25.2 4.2
25.8 2.4
26.3 2.1
26.7 1.6
27.3 2.1
28 2.4
28.7 2.7
29.4 2.2
30 2
30.4 1.4
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
61.7 0.4
63.7 3.1
64.8 1.8
65.6 1.2
66.4 1.4
67.4 1.4
68.2 1.2
68.8 0.9
69.5 1.1
70.1 0.8
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
171.2 2.9
175.9 2.7
180 2.3
184.1 2.3
187.9 2
192.6 2.5
196.5 2.1
200 1.8
204.5 2.2
208.9 2.2
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
123.8 2.7
128.7 3.9
132.7 3.1
136.7 3
140.7 2.9
145.6 3.5
149.6 2.8
153.6 2.6
157.6 2.6
161.8 2.6
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
189.1 0
193.2 2.1
198.2 2.6
200.6 1.2
202 0.7
203.6 0.8
205.1 0.8
206.8 0.8
209 1.1
210.3 0.6
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
48.7 1.3
49.1 0.9
49.7 1.2
50.7 2
51.7 2
52.6 1.7
53.4 1.6
54.2 1.4
54.9 1.4
55.6 1.3
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
11.7 -6.1
11.6 -0.7
11.6 0
11.6 0.4
11.7 0.8
11.9 1.2
12 1.3
12.2 1.3
12.3 1.3
13.4 8.6
103.7 -0.5
105.4 1.6
108 2.5
110.4 2.2
112.6 2.1
114.5 1.7
116.4 1.7
118.2 1.5
119.8 1.4
121.2 1.2
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
84539.9
87920.3
91031.3
94464.2
97944.3
101648
105200
108889
112820
116750
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
2130.7 1.1
2161 1.4
2202.7 1.9
2253.7 2.3
2308.3 2.4
2364.4 2.4
2421.6 2.4
2479.8 2.4
2538.1 2.4
2596.2 2.3
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
1136.3 0.8
1150.3 1.2
1170.1 1.7
1191.8 1.9
1218.4 2.2
1246.2 2.3
1273.6 2.2
1301.4 2.2
1329.9 2.2
1357.6 2.1
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
11.2
9.4
8.1
7.2
6.7
6.2
5.8
5.4
5
4.7
12505 10783 1722
20239 16859 3380
23704 19010 4694
24302 19204 5098
25219 19556 5663
26487 20134 6352
27089 20326 6763
27490 20499 6990
28051 20685 7365
28434 20820 7614
Continued
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
99
Or l a n d o – Ki s s immee
Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
140.7 5.7 76.3 64.4
148.7 5.7 80.3 68.5
156.7 5.4 84.2 72.5
164.9 5.2 88.3 76.6
173.8 5.4 92.7 81
183.2 5.4 97.5 85.7
193.2 5.5 102.5 90.8
203.6 5.3 107.7 95.9
214.4 5.3 113.2 101.2
225.6 5.2 119 106.7
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
92.7 3.9
96.3 3.9
99.6 3.5
102.9 3.3
106.5 3.4
110.2 3.5
114.2 3.6
118.1 3.4
122.1 3.4
126.1 3.3
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
53 34.9
54.8 35.5
56.5 35.9
58.1 36.3
59.9 36.7
61.8 37.2
63.8 37.7
65.8 38.2
67.8 38.6
69.9 39.1
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
62 3.3
64.1 3.3
66.2 3.3
68.3 3.3
70.6 3.3
73.1 3.5
75.6 3.5
78.2 3.5
81 3.5
83.8 3.5
Personal Income (Billions $)
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
1226.7 1.5
1248.7 1.8
1269.6 1.7
1288.6 1.5
1309.4 1.6
1330.5 1.6
1351.4 1.6
1372.6 1.6
1394.7 1.6
1416.3 1.6
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
41.7 -1.5
41 -1.7
40.2 -1.9
39.5 -1.7
39 -1.3
38.6 -1.1
38.2 -1
37.8 -1.1
37.4 -0.9
37.2 -0.7
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
1185 1.6
1207.8 1.9
1229.4 1.8
1249.1 1.6
1270.3 1.7
1291.9 1.7
1313.3 1.7
1334.9 1.6
1357.3 1.7
1379.2 1.6
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
74.2 3.2
76.8 3.4
79.3 3.4
81.7 3
84.2 3.1
87 3.3
89.6 3
91.9 2.6
94.2 2.5
96.8 2.7
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
226 1.5
231 2.2
235.6 2
239.9 1.8
244.1 1.8
248 1.6
252 1.6
256 1.6
259.8 1.5
263 1.2
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
53.5 129.4 41
55.2 131 42.3
56.9 132.6 43.6
58.3 134.3 44.8
59.7 135.9 46
61 137.4 47.1
62.3 139.1 47.9
63.6 141 48.7
64.9 142.5 49.6
66.2 143.8 50
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
30.9 1.8
31.6 2.1
32.2 2
32.8 1.7
33.4 1.8
34.1 2.2
34.9 2.3
35.7 2.5
36.7 2.7
37.6 2.4
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
70.7 0.9
71.7 1.4
72.8 1.4
73.8 1.4
75.1 1.7
76.4 1.7
77.6 1.7
79 1.7
80.4 1.7
81.8 1.8
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
214.1 2.5
219.3 2.4
223.7 2
227.5 1.7
231.8 1.9
236.1 1.9
240 1.7
244.1 1.7
248.5 1.8
252.9 1.7
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
164.8 1.9
167.8 1.8
170.8 1.8
173.7 1.7
176.8 1.7
179.8 1.8
183.1 1.8
186.5 1.8
190 1.9
193.3 1.8
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
212 0.8
214.5 1.2
216.8 1.1
218.9 0.9
221.1 1
223.7 1.2
226.7 1.3
229.7 1.3
233 1.4
235.5 1.1
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
56.7 1.9
57.9 2.2
59.1 2.1
60.3 2
61.7 2.2
62.8 1.8
63.8 1.6
64.8 1.6
65.8 1.6
66.9 1.7
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
12.9 -4.1
13.1 1.6
13.2 1.3
13.4 1.3
13.6 1.3
13.8 1.3
14 1.3
14.1 1.3
14.3 1.3
15.5 8.1
122.7 1.2
124.2 1.2
125.7 1.2
127.1 1.1
128.7 1.2
130.2 1.2
131.7 1.1
133.1 1.1
134.5 1.1
135.9 1
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
120724
125100
129535
134064
138889
143635
148310
153064
157959
163206
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
2654.7 2.3
2714.2 2.2
2774.7 2.2
2836.3 2.2
2899 2.2
2962.8 2.2
3027.8 2.2
3094 2.2
3161.2 2.2
3229.4 2.2
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
1384.8 2
1411.8 2
1439.6 2
1468.2 2
1498.4 2.1
1531.9 2.2
1566.7 2.3
1602.5 2.3
1639.1 2.3
1676.3 2.3
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
100
4.6
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.5
4.5
4.5
28222 20642 7580
28672 20923 7749
29010 21206 7803
29257 21539 7718
29772 22061 7711
30028 22305 7723
29601 21895 7705
28958 21275 7683
28516 20926 7590
28645 21093 7552
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
Continued
Or l a n d o – Ki s s immee
Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
237.5 5.3 125.2 112.4
250.1 5.3 131.7 118.4
263.2 5.2 138.4 124.8
276.5 5.1 145 131.5
290.4 5 151.9 138.5
305 5 159.1 145.9
320 4.9 166.7 153.3
335.6 4.9 174.5 161.1
351.6 4.8 182.6 169.1
368.4 4.8 191 177.4
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
130.3 3.3
134.7 3.3
139 3.2
143.3 3.1
147.6 3
152.1 3.1
156.6 2.9
161 2.8
165.4 2.7
169.9 2.7
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
72 39.5
74.2 40
76.5 40.4
78.7 40.8
81 41.2
83.4 41.6
85.7 41.9
88.1 42.3
90.5 42.6
92.9 42.9
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
86.7 3.5
89.7 3.4
92.8 3.4
95.9 3.4
99.2 3.4
102.5 3.4
106 3.4
109.6 3.4
113.2 3.3
117.1 3.4
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
1439.4 1.6
1464.5 1.7
1487.8 1.6
1508.3 1.4
1528 1.3
1548.8 1.4
1569.2 1.3
1588.8 1.2
1609.5 1.3
1627.9 1.1
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
37 -0.5
36.7 -0.6
36.5 -0.8
36.2 -0.7
35.9 -0.8
35.7 -0.7
35.4 -0.6
35.2 -0.5
35.2 -0.2
35.2 0.1
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
1402.4 1.7
1427.8 1.8
1451.3 1.7
1472.1 1.4
1492.1 1.4
1513.1 1.4
1533.8 1.4
1553.6 1.3
1574.4 1.3
1592.7 1.2
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
100.1 3.4
103.6 3.5
107.2 3.4
110 2.6
112.5 2.4
115.3 2.5
118.4 2.6
121.3 2.5
124.3 2.5
126.9 2.1
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
266.2 1.2
269.1 1.1
272 1.1
274.5 0.9
276.7 0.8
279.1 0.9
281.4 0.8
283.7 0.8
286.1 0.9
288.3 0.8
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
67.1 145.6 50.5
67.8 147.4 50.9
68.3 149.3 51.3
68.7 151 51.6
69.1 152.7 51.9
69.5 154.4 52.1
69.8 156.2 52.2
70.1 158.1 52.3
70.5 160.1 52.3
71.1 161.7 52.2
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
38.7 3
40.1 3.5
41.2 2.9
42.1 2.2
43 2
43.9 2.2
45 2.5
46.2 2.5
47.3 2.4
48.1 1.8
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
83.4 2
85 2
86.6 1.8
88.1 1.7
89.5 1.6
91.1 1.8
92.5 1.6
93.9 1.5
95.3 1.5
96.3 1
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
257.8 2
263.1 2
267.6 1.7
271.7 1.5
275.7 1.5
279.9 1.5
284.1 1.5
287.9 1.3
291.7 1.3
295.6 1.3
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
197.1 1.9
201.2 2.1
204.8 1.8
208 1.6
210.9 1.4
214 1.5
217 1.4
220.2 1.5
223.4 1.5
226.5 1.4
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
239.2 1.5
243.1 1.6
246.8 1.5
250.2 1.4
253.8 1.4
257.2 1.3
260.6 1.3
263.5 1.1
267.2 1.4
269.3 0.8
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
67.9 1.5
69 1.5
70 1.6
71.1 1.6
72.2 1.5
73.3 1.6
74.3 1.3
75.1 1.2
76 1.2
76.8 1
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
14.8 -4.2
15 1.4
15.2 1.3
15.4 1.3
15.6 1.3
15.8 1.3
16 1.3
16.3 1.3
16.4 1.2
17.5 6.6
137.3 1
138.6 1
139.8 0.9
141 0.9
142.2 0.8
143.4 0.8
144.5 0.8
145.5 0.7
146.5 0.7
147.5 0.6
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
168714
174354
180139
186000
191958
198266
204894
211599
218777
226384
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
3298.5 2.1
3368.5 2.1
3439.5 2.1
3511.4 2.1
3584.3 2.1
3658.2 2.1
3733.2 2
3809.2 2
3886.5 2
3965.1 2
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
1714.2 2.3
1752.7 2.2
1791.9 2.2
1831.7 2.2
1872.2 2.2
1913.4 2.2
1955.3 2.2
1997.9 2.2
2041.5 2.2
2084.5 2.1
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.9
4.9
28528 21010 7519
28029 20455 7574
27864 20331 7533
28047 20541 7505
28197 20778 7419
28153 20918 7235
27841 20799 7042
27544 20608 6936
27475 20586 6889
27363 20541 6822
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
101
P a l m B ay – M e l b o ur n e – T itu s v i l l e
P r o fi l e s
Out l o o k Summarie s
The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is comprised of Brevard County only. Typically known as “Florida’s Space Coast,” this area is home to the Kennedy Space Center. Located in the central part of Florida’s east coast, the region is home to Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, Patrick Air Force Base, and government contractors such as Harris Corporation. Like much of Florida, this area is growing fast; Port Canaveral is now a leading cruise-ship port.
The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is expected to see moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 4.7 percent each year. Per capita income levels should average 31.6. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.8 percent, while average annual wage levels should be at 49.0. Population growth is expected to be an average of 0.6 percent, and the Gross Metro Product level is expected to be 15,068.30 (Mill). Employment growth is forecasted to average 0.9 percent each year. The metro will be seeing an average unemployment rate of 10.8 percent. Manufacturing is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 2.5 percent growth annually. Education and Health Services and Professional & Business Services follow with average growth rates of 1.8 percent and 1.2 percent respectively. The Construction and Mining and the Federal Government sectors are the only sectors that will experience declines, with annual growth rates of -0.3 percent and -2.4 percent respectively.
Quick Facts:
• Population estimate of 536,357 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 266,723 in April 2010 (Florida Research and Economic Database)
• An unemployment rate of 11.4% as of April 2010, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 30,499 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:
• Brevard County Schools – 8535 employees
M etr o Ne w s Summarie s
• United Space Alliance – 6300 employees
Obama tries to get support of space plan off ground
• Harris Corporation – 6391 employees • Health First, Inc. – 6000 employees • 45th Space Wing – 4174 employees
• Space Gateway Support – 3000 employees • Brevard County – 2500 employees
• Wuesthoff Health System, Inc. – 2400 employees • Northrop Grumman Corporation – 2000 employees • The Boeing Co. – 1962 employees
• President Obama visited the Space Coast to make a proposal to desert the manned mission to the moon.
• The President spoke on his modified plan to develop a smaller version of NASA’s Orion spacecraft. This would abolish the need to buy the spacecraft from Russia, offsetting the possible job losses at Kennedy Space Center.
• Obama has a $40 million, multi-agency initiative planned for the Space Coast to restore its Source: Economic Development of Florida’s Space Coast economy, and proposed a $6 billion budget boost for NASA over five years .
• NASA – 1577 employees
Source: USA Today, April 16, 2010
102
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
P a l m B ay – M e l b o ur n e – T itu s v i l l e
Harris Corp. wins $72 million contract
• The Department of Veteran’s Affairs chose Harris Corporation to expand the Consolidated Patient Account Center business model. • The payment will be divided over three years, with the contract containing one base-year with two one-year options. • The effort is intended to advance billing and collection activities across 16 networks and 108 medical centers associated with VA.
Source: Orlando Business Journal, April 21, 2010
SCCU pulls off rare merger
300 KSC workers set to lose jobs today
• On June 4th, 300 United Space Alliance employees were let go from their jobs at the Kennedy Space Center. All layoffs were “selfnominated,” or voluntary.
• Laid-off employees will receive a severance package equaling a week’s pay, multiplied by the number of years the employee was with the company.
• An estimated 8,000 employees of Kennedy Space Center will be let go at the termination of the shuttle program. Source: Florida Today, June 4, 2010
• Space Coast Credit Union was asked by federal regulators to help and assist Eastern Financial Florida Credit Union. This temporary assistance has turned into a more permanent arrangement. • The EFFCU is now functioning as a division of the SCCU. Together, they have 360,000 members, 875 employees, and $3.1 billion in assets.
• The merge has left the Union with a rating of two stars, instead of its former four stars, but SCCU sees the decline as short-term. Source: Florida Today, May 2, 2010
Melbourne airport’s marketing takes off
• US Airways is working with Melbourne International Airport to boost promotion for the airport’s newest carrier.
• Melbourne International would lay out $100,000, while US Airways would bring $200,000 to the table. • The money will go to improving the website and ongoing marketing efforts. The executives will not only focus on the Melbourne area, but also on large cities along the East Coast, encouraging travelers to fly into Melbourne International. Source: Florida Today, May 3, 2010
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
103
P a l m B ay – M e l b o ur n e – T itu s v i l l e Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0
0.5
Florida & Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Unemployment Rate 14.0%
(percent)
1
Palm Bay Payroll Employment 280.0
8.0%
220.0
6.0%
200.0
4.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 FL Unemployment Rate Palm Bay Unemployment Rate
160.0
(Millions 2000 $)
10.0% 8.0%
30000.0
6.0%
25000.0
4.0%
20000.0
2.0%
15000.0
0.0%
10000.0
-2.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Gross Metro Product Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Palm Bay Payroll Employment
Palm Bay Real Personal Income
35000.0
104
(Thousands)
180.0
Palm Bay Real Gross Metro Product
5000.0
2.5
240.0
10.0%
40000.0
2
260.0
12.0%
2.0%
1.5
-4.0%
(percent change year ago)
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Personal Income
P a l m B ay – M e l b o ur n e – T itu s v i l l e
Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
20.4 5.2 9.2 11.2 16.5 3.6 38 30.7 47.2 3.4
20.6 5.3 9.3 11.4 16.6 4.1 38.4 30.9 47.5 3.3
20.7 5.3 9.2 11.5 16.6 4 38.6 30.9 47.9 3.3
21 4 9.3 11.6 16.7 2.4 39 31.1 48.2 2.8
21.3 4.3 9.5 11.8 16.9 2.6 39.5 31.4 48.4 2.7
21.5 4.4 9.6 11.9 17 2.6 39.9 31.6 48.7 2.5
21.8 5.2 9.7 12.1 17.2 3.4 40.4 31.8 49 2.4
22.2 5.6 9.9 12.3 17.4 3.8 40.9 32.1 49.3 2.4
22.5 5.5 10 12.4 17.5 3.7 41.3 32.3 49.6 2.5
22.7 5.5 10.2 12.6 17.7 3.6 41.7 32.4 50 2.6
23 5.2 10.3 12.6 17.7 3.2 42 32.4 50.4 2.8
23.2 4.7 10.5 12.8 17.9 2.8 42.3 32.6 50.8 3
23.5 4.6 10.6 12.9 18 2.7 42.7 32.7 51.2 3.1
23.8 4.6 10.7 13.1 18.1 2.7 43 32.8 51.5 3.1
193.2 0.6 22.4 4.4 170.8 0.1 8.4 -1 32.5 0.3 5.4 24.2 2.9 2.9 3.8 7.8 1.8 31.1 -1.5 32.1 2.6 20.4 -0.3 7.4 0.7 5.8 -5.6 22.4 -0.6
194.3 1.3 22.6 4.5 171.6 0.8 8.5 1.6 32.8 1 5.5 24.4 2.9 2.9 3.4 7.9 3.6 31.3 -0.6 32.3 2.9 20.4 -0.1 7.4 0.8 5.8 -2.8 22.4 0
195.3 3.2 23 5.2 172.3 3 8.7 4.2 33 1.8 5.5 24.6 3 2.9 3 8 3.9 31.4 9.5 32.4 2.9 20.5 0.3 7.4 0.4 5.7 -2.3 22.5 0.4
197.7 3.4 23.2 5 174.5 3.2 8.9 6.2 33.3 2.8 5.6 24.7 3 3 2.4 8 3.5 32.4 8.4 32.6 2.6 20.6 1 7.4 0.1 5.7 -1.6 22.5 0.9
199.1 3.1 23.5 4.9 175.6 2.8 9 7 33.6 3.3 5.6 24.9 3.1 3 2.3 8.1 3.1 32.7 4.8 32.8 2.2 20.8 1.9 7.4 0.3 5.7 -1.2 22.6 1.2
200.5 3.2 23.7 4.5 176.8 3 9.2 7.7 33.9 3.4 5.7 25 3.1 3 2.4 8.1 2.4 32.9 5.2 32.9 1.9 20.9 2.8 7.4 0.3 5.7 -0.9 22.7 1.6
201.8 3.3 23.9 4.1 177.9 3.2 9.4 8.7 34.1 3.4 5.8 25.1 3.1 3 2.7 8.1 1.8 33.3 6.1 32.9 1.7 21 2.7 7.4 0.4 5.7 -0.6 22.8 1.8
203.1 2.7 24.1 3.6 179 2.6 9.6 8.8 34.4 3.4 5.8 25.3 3.1 3 3 8.1 1.5 33.6 3.4 33.1 1.5 21.1 2.2 7.4 0.4 5.7 -0.8 23 1.9
204.1 2.6 24.2 3 180 2.5 9.8 8.7 34.6 3.1 5.9 25.4 3.2 3.1 2.9 8.2 1.2 33.8 3.6 33.2 1.3 21.1 1.6 7.4 0.2 5.7 -0.8 23.1 2
205.1 2.3 24.3 2.5 180.8 2.3 10 8.4 34.8 2.7 5.9 25.5 3.2 3.1 2.6 8.2 1 34.1 3.6 33.3 1.1 21.2 1.1 7.4 0 5.7 -0.9 23.2 2
14511 14558.3 14428.7 14597.5 14791.4 14916.5 15037.3 15249.8 15397.1 15541.3 15652.3 15775.8 15895.4 537 537.2 537.4 537.9 538.6 539.5 540.6 542 543.5 545.1 546.9 548.8 550.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1 1.2 1.3 1.3 270.7 270.6 270.4 270 269.8 269.7 269.5 269.3 268.9 269.4 270.1 270.8 271.5 1 0.4 0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.5 1 12.4 12.3 12.4 12 11.6 11.1 10.7 10.3 9.8 9.5 9.2 8.9 8.7 1176 1372 2115 2702 3311 3733 4198 4566 4943 5090 5163 5356 5465 1598 1694 2012 2521 3060 3517 3817 4105 4411 4480 4501 4659 4743 -422 -322 103 180 252 216 381 461 532 611 661 697 722
16004 552.9 1.4 272.3 1.1 8.5 5472 4728 743
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
192.1 -1.8 21.4 -0.8 170.7 -1.9 8.5 -10.6 32.4 -1.9 5.3 24.1 2.8 2.8 -5.9 7.7 -3.4 31.6 -2.5 31.3 1.4 20.5 -1.6 7.3 -0.8 6.1 -2 22.5 -1.5
191.9 -1.2 21.7 2.5 170.2 -1.6 8.4 -8.3 32.4 -1.6 5.2 24.1 2.8 2.8 -2.1 7.6 -2.5 31.5 -1.3 31.4 1 20.4 -2.2 7.3 0.2 5.9 -8 22.4 -1
189.2 -2.1 21.8 3.5 167.3 -2.8 8.3 -7 32.4 -0.6 5.2 24.1 2.8 2.9 1.2 7.7 -0.4 28.6 -10.7 31.5 1.5 20.4 -0.9 7.3 1.1 5.9 -10.2 22.4 -1.4
191.1 -1 22.1 4.3 169 -1.7 8.3 -4.9 32.4 -0.2 5.3 24.2 2.8 2.9 3.1 7.7 0.6 29.9 -6.5 31.8 2.1 20.4 -0.1 7.4 0.7 5.8 -12.3 22.3 -1.4
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
105
P a l m B ay – M e l b o ur n e – T itu s v i l l e
Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
15.1 5.7 7.5 7.5
16.3 8.1 8.2 8.1
17.6 7.8 8.9 8.7
18.9 7.5 9.4 9.5
19.5 3.2 9.5 10
19.9 1.9 9.5 10.4
19.5 -2 9.1 10.4
20.2 3.9 9.2 11
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
14.3 3.6
15.1 5.4
15.8 4.7
16.5 4.6
16.6 0.5
16.4 -1.4
16 -2.1
16.4 2.2
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
29.9 28.3
31.5 29.2
33.4 30
35.6 31.1
36.5 31
37 30.5
36.3 29.8
37.7 30.5
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
37.7 4.9
39.8 5.5
41.6 4.5
42.8 2.9
43.7 2.1
45 3
45.6 1.4
47 2.9
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
196.9 1.9
204 3.6
211 3.4
216.4 2.5
213.8 -1.2
207.4 -3
196.5 -5.2
192.6 -2
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
22.8 -0.5
23.6 3.8
23.9 1.2
24.6 2.7
24.1 -1.8
23.7 -1.6
21.9 -7.8
21.3 -2.4
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
174.1 2.3
180.4 3.6
187.1 3.7
191.8 2.5
189.7 -1.1
183.7 -3.2
174.6 -4.9
171.3 -1.9
13 2.3
14.8 13.6
17.2 16.2
18.1 5
15.4 -15
13 -15.4
10 -23.1
8.7 -13.2
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
34.2 -1.6
35.5 3.7
37.1 4.5
37.4 1
36.9 -1.5
35.5 -3.8
33.2 -6.4
32.5 -2.2
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
4.6 26.3 3.3
4.7 27.2 3.6
5.2 28 3.8
5.5 28.3 3.6
5.6 28 3.3
5.5 26.8 3.1
5.3 25.1 2.9
5.3 24.2 2.8
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
2.8 0
2.8 -0.9
2.9 6
2.9 0.1
2.9 -2.6
2.9 2.3
3.1 4.6
2.8 -7.8
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
7.3 0.7
7.8 5.8
8.4 7.8
8.6 2.4
8.6 0.3
8.3 -3.4
7.9 -4.7
7.7 -3.1
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
33.8 3.2
34.5 2.2
36 4.3
37.3 3.6
36.9 -1.1
34.5 -6.3
32.3 -6.6
31.8 -1.5
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
26.7 5.7
26.8 0.3
27.3 1.8
28.2 3.1
29.3 4
30.6 4.7
30.9 0.8
31.2 1
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
20.2 1.7
21.1 4.4
21.8 3.3
22.5 3.3
22.9 1.5
21.9 -4.2
20.9 -4.3
20.5 -2.3
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
8.2 8.4
8.4 1.6
8.1 -2.8
8.1 -0.7
8 -1
7.9 -1.5
7.4 -6.5
7.3 -0.9
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
5.7 1.2
5.9 3.9
6.1 1.8
6.2 1.7
6.2 0.5
6.2 0
6.3 1.3
6.3 0.7
22.1 2.6
22.9 3.3
22.2 -2.8
22.6 1.7
22.8 1.1
22.8 0
22.8 -0.3
22.6 -0.9
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
12297
13005.4
13986.3
14599
14457.6
14365.2
14015.3
14451.4
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
504.8 1.9
517 2.4
526.2 1.8
530.8 0.9
534.5 0.7
536.2 0.3
536.4 0
536.9 0.1
242 1.6
247.6 2.3
258.3 4.3
263 1.8
264.4 0.5
268.4 1.5
268.8 0.2
270.4 0.6
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
106
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
5.2
4.4
3.6
3.2
4.2
6.5
10.5
12.4
6111 5574 537
8211 6309 1902
8478 7198 1280
5349 4371 977
2824 2209 615
1774 1282 492
997 882 115
1436 1584 -148
Continued
P a l m B ay – M e l b o ur n e – T itu s v i l l e
Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
21.1 4.5 9.4 11.7
22.3 5.5 10 12.3
23.4 4.8 10.5 12.8
24.7 5.9 11.1 13.7
26.2 5.9 11.6 14.6
27.8 6 12.2 15.6
29.4 5.9 12.7 16.7
31 5.6 13.3 17.8
32.8 5.8 13.9 19
34.7 5.7 14.5 20.2
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
16.8 2.9
17.4 3.6
17.9 2.9
18.6 3.9
19.3 3.8
20.1 3.9
20.9 3.8
21.6 3.5
22.4 3.8
23.3 3.8
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
39.3 31.3
41.1 32.1
42.5 32.6
44.3 33.4
46.3 34.2
48.5 35.1
50.7 36
52.8 36.8
55 37.6
57.2 38.3
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
48.3 2.8
49.5 2.5
51 3
52.6 3.2
54.3 3.3
56.2 3.4
58.1 3.4
60.1 3.4
62.1 3.4
64.1 3.2
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
191.9 -0.3
198.1 3.2
203.5 2.7
207.2 1.8
210.4 1.5
213.5 1.5
216.1 1.2
218.4 1.1
220.6 1
223.1 1.1
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
22.2 4.2
23.3 4.9
24.1 3.3
24.4 1.1
24.3 -0.3
24.1 -0.6
24 -0.5
23.9 -0.4
23.8 -0.6
23.6 -0.6
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
169.7 -0.9
174.8 3
179.4 2.6
182.8 1.9
186.1 1.8
189.3 1.8
192.1 1.4
194.4 1.2
196.9 1.3
199.5 1.3
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
8.4 -2.9
8.9 6.3
9.7 8.7
10.2 5.3
10.5 2.8
10.9 3.3
11.2 3.1
11.5 2.8
11.7 1.6
11.9 1.7
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
32.5 0.1
33.4 2.8
34.5 3.2
35.1 1.8
35.6 1.3
35.7 0.5
35.8 0.2
36 0.4
36.2 0.6
36.4 0.5
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
5.3 24.2 2.9
5.6 24.8 3
5.9 25.3 3.2
6.1 25.6 3.3
6.2 25.7 3.4
6.3 25.7 3.5
6.4 25.5 3.5
6.6 25.5 3.6
6.7 25.5 3.6
6.8 25.5 3.6
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
2.9 2.9
3 2.5
3 2.8
3.1 1.7
3.1 1.4
3.2 1.6
3.2 1.8
3.3 1.3
3.3 1.3
3.4 0.8
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
7.8 1.4
8 3.2
8.1 1.4
8.2 0.6
8.3 0.8
8.3 0.8
8.4 0.7
8.4 0.4
8.5 0.6
8.5 0.5
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
30.2 -4.9
32.3 6.9
33.7 4.2
34.7 3.1
36 3.7
37.4 3.7
38.5 3
39.3 2.2
40.3 2.3
41.2 2.3
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
31.9 2.3
32.7 2.4
33.1 1.4
33.7 1.8
34.5 2.2
35.4 2.8
36.2 2.2
37 2.1
37.7 2
38.6 2.2
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
20.4 -0.4
20.7 1.5
21.1 1.9
21.2 0.4
21.2 0
21.2 0
21.1 -0.2
21.1 -0.3
21.1 0
21 -0.4
7.4 0.8
7.4 0.3
7.4 0.3
7.4 0.6
7.5 0.4
7.5 0.2
7.5 0.1
7.5 -0.1
7.5 0
7.5 0
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
5.8 -7.9
5.7 -1.5
5.7 -0.8
5.7 -0.4
5.7 0
5.7 0.3
5.7 0.5
5.7 0.5
5.8 0.7
6.1 5.3
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
22.4 -0.8
22.6 1
23 1.9
23.4 1.7
23.8 1.5
24 1.2
24.3 1.2
24.6 1
24.8 1
25 0.8
14683.5
15306.4
15831.9
16369.5
16901.4
17444.7
17949.1
18459.9
19007.4
19553.8
538.4 0.3
542.8 0.8
549.8 1.3
558.3 1.5
566 1.4
573 1.2
580 1.2
587.8 1.4
597.1 1.6
607.6 1.8
270 -0.1
269.3 -0.3
271.2 0.7
274 1
278.1 1.5
282.1 1.4
286 1.4
290 1.4
293.9 1.4
297.6 1.3
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%)
11.8
10.1
8.8
8
7.7
7.3
6.9
6.6
6.2
5.8
Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
2965 2777 188
4699 4203 496
5364 4658 706
5490 4675 814
5638 4685 953
5830 4783 1047
5907 4816 1090
5956 4846 1110
6058 4904 1155
6127 4940 1186
Continued
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
107
P a l m B ay – M e l b o ur n e – T itu s v i l l e
Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
36.6 5.4 15.1 21.5
38.6 5.3 15.8 22.8
40.5 5 16.5 24
42.5 5 17.2 25.3
44.7 5.1 17.9 26.7
47 5.1 18.8 28.2
49.4 5.2 19.6 29.8
51.8 5 20.5 31.3
54.4 4.9 21.5 32.9
57.1 4.9 22.5 34.5
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
24.1 3.6
25 3.5
25.8 3.2
26.5 3
27.4 3.1
28.3 3.2
29.2 3.3
30.1 3
31 3
31.9 3
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
59.2 39
61.3 39.7
63.3 40.2
65.3 40.8
67.5 41.3
69.8 42
72.2 42.6
74.5 43.2
77 43.8
79.5 44.4
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
66.2 3.3
68.4 3.3
70.6 3.2
72.9 3.2
75.3 3.3
77.9 3.4
80.6 3.4
83.3 3.4
86.2 3.5
89.2 3.4
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
225.3 1
228.2 1.3
230.7 1.1
232.9 0.9
235.5 1.1
238.3 1.2
241 1.1
243.7 1.1
246.6 1.2
249.8 1.3
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
23.3 -1.3
23 -1.5
22.6 -1.7
22.2 -1.4
22 -1.1
21.8 -1
21.6 -0.9
21.4 -1
21.2 -0.8
21.1 -0.6
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
202 1.3
205.2 1.6
208.2 1.4
210.7 1.2
213.5 1.4
216.5 1.4
219.4 1.3
222.3 1.3
225.4 1.4
228.7 1.5
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
12.2 2.1
12.4 2.4
12.7 2.4
13 2
13.3 2.2
13.7 2.8
14 2.3
14.2 1.9
14.5 1.8
14.8 2
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
36.6 0.8
37.2 1.6
37.8 1.5
38.2 1.3
38.7 1.2
39.2 1.2
39.6 1.2
40.1 1.2
40.6 1.1
40.9 0.9
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
7 25.6 3.7
7.2 25.8 3.8
7.4 26.1 3.9
7.6 26.3 4
7.7 26.5 4
7.9 26.7 4.1
8.1 27 4.2
8.2 27.2 4.2
8.4 27.4 4.3
8.6 27.6 4.3
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
3.4 1.2
3.5 1.5
3.5 1.5
3.5 1.2
3.6 1.3
3.6 1.6
3.7 1.8
3.8 2
3.9 2.2
3.9 1.9
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
8.5 0.4
8.6 1.2
8.7 1.1
8.8 1.1
9 1.4
9.1 1.4
9.2 1.4
9.3 1.4
9.5 1.4
9.6 1.4
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
42.4 2.9
43.6 2.8
44.6 2.2
45.3 1.6
46.3 2.1
47.3 2.3
48.2 1.9
49.2 2
50.3 2.3
51.4 2.2
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
39.1 1.4
39.7 1.4
40.2 1.4
40.8 1.3
41.3 1.3
41.8 1.3
42.4 1.4
43 1.4
43.6 1.5
44.2 1.3
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
21 0.1
21.1 0.5
21.2 0.3
21.2 0.2
21.3 0.3
21.4 0.5
21.5 0.6
21.7 0.6
21.8 0.7
21.9 0.4
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
7.5 0.6
7.6 1
7.7 0.8
7.7 0.8
7.8 1
7.9 0.6
7.9 0.4
7.9 0.4
8 0.4
8 0.5
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
6 -2.1
6 1
6.1 0.6
6.1 0.6
6.1 0.6
6.2 0.6
6.2 0.6
6.2 0.6
6.3 0.6
6.7 6.9
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
25.2 0.8
25.5 0.9
25.7 1
25.9 0.8
26.2 1
26.4 0.8
26.6 0.8
26.8 0.8
27 0.8
27.2 0.7
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
20127.2
20759.4
21391.1
22028.4
22713.2
23387.9
24044.6
24707.6
25390.2
26122.9
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
618.2 1.7
628.9 1.7
639.9 1.7
650.9 1.7
662 1.7
673.1 1.7
684.3 1.7
695.4 1.6
706.4 1.6
717.8 1.6
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
300.9 1.1
304.1 1.1
307.5 1.1
311.1 1.2
314.9 1.2
319.3 1.4
323.9 1.4
328.5 1.4
333.2 1.4
338 1.4
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
108
5.6
5.5
5.4
5.4
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.6
5.6
6069 4887 1182
6165 4948 1217
6234 5002 1232
6303 5076 1227
6405 5176 1229
6458 5227 1231
6364 5138 1226
6221 5001 1220
6124 4921 1203
6154 4960 1194
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
Continued
P a l m B ay – M e l b o ur n e – T itu s v i l l e
Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
59.8 4.9 23.6 36.3
62.8 5 24.8 38.1
65.9 4.8 25.9 40
69 4.7 27 42
72.2 4.6 28.1 44
75.5 4.6 29.3 46.2
78.9 4.5 30.6 48.4
82.4 4.5 31.8 50.6
86.1 4.4 33.1 53
89.9 4.5 34.5 55.4
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
32.8 3
33.8 3.1
34.8 2.9
35.7 2.7
36.7 2.6
37.7 2.7
38.6 2.5
39.6 2.4
40.5 2.4
41.5 2.4
82 45
84.7 45.6
87.4 46.2
90.1 46.7
92.8 47.2
95.7 47.7
98.6 48.2
101.5 48.7
104.5 49.2
107.6 49.7
92.3 3.5
95.6 3.5
98.9 3.4
102.1 3.3
105.5 3.3
109 3.3
112.6 3.3
116.3 3.3
120 3.2
124.1 3.4
Personal Income (Billions $)
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
252.8 1.2
256.5 1.5
259.6 1.2
261.9 0.9
264.1 0.8
266.5 0.9
268.9 0.9
271 0.8
273.3 0.8
275.7 0.9
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
21 -0.5
20.8 -0.6
20.7 -0.7
20.5 -0.7
20.4 -0.8
20.2 -0.6
20.1 -0.6
20 -0.5
20 -0.2
20 0
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
231.9 1.4
235.7 1.7
238.9 1.3
241.4 1.1
243.7 1
246.2 1.1
248.8 1
251 0.9
253.3 0.9
255.7 1
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
15.2 2.7
15.6 2.8
16 2.7
16.3 1.9
16.6 1.6
16.9 1.7
17.2 1.9
17.5 1.7
17.8 1.7
18 1.2
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
41.3 0.9
41.7 0.8
42 0.9
42.3 0.7
42.6 0.6
42.8 0.7
43.1 0.6
43.4 0.7
43.7 0.7
44 0.6
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
8.7 27.8 4.3
8.7 28.1 4.3
8.8 28.3 4.4
8.8 28.6 4.4
8.9 28.8 4.4
8.9 29 4.4
9 29.2 4.3
9 29.5 4.3
9 29.8 4.3
9.1 30 4.3
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
4 2.5
4.2 3
4.3 2.4
4.3 1.6
4.4 1.4
4.5 1.7
4.6 2
4.6 1.9
4.7 1.8
4.8 1.2
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
9.8 1.6
9.9 1.7
10.1 1.5
10.2 1.4
10.4 1.3
10.5 1.4
10.6 1.3
10.8 1.2
10.9 1.1
11 0.6
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
52.7 2.6
54.3 3
55.4 2
56.3 1.5
57.1 1.4
58 1.6
58.9 1.6
59.6 1.2
60.3 1.1
61.3 1.6
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
44.9 1.5
45.6 1.7
46.2 1.3
46.7 1.1
47.2 0.9
47.7 1
48.1 0.9
48.6 1.1
49.1 1
49.6 0.9
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
22.1 0.8
22.3 0.9
22.5 0.9
22.7 0.7
22.8 0.7
23 0.7
23.1 0.6
23.2 0.4
23.4 0.7
23.4 0.1
8 0.3
8 0.3
8.1 0.4
8.1 0.4
8.1 0.3
8.2 0.4
8.2 0.1
8.2 0
8.2 0
8.2 -0.2
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
6.4 -4.2
6.5 0.6
6.5 0.6
6.5 0.6
6.6 0.6
6.6 0.5
6.7 0.5
6.7 0.5
6.7 0.5
7.1 5.4
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
27.4 0.7
27.6 0.6
27.7 0.6
27.9 0.5
28 0.5
28.2 0.5
28.3 0.4
28.4 0.3
28.5 0.3
28.5 0.3
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
26898.4
27689.2
28479.2
29268.5
30062.9
30907.8
31792.7
32675
33620
34642.4
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
729.9 1.7
741.9 1.6
753.9 1.6
765.7 1.6
777.3 1.5
789 1.5
800.5 1.5
812 1.4
823.5 1.4
835.2 1.4
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
342.7 1.4
347.4 1.4
352.2 1.4
356.9 1.3
361.7 1.3
366.4 1.3
371.2 1.3
376 1.3
381 1.3
385.7 1.2
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.9
5.9
5.9
6127 4941 1187
6003 4810 1194
5962 4777 1185
5998 4821 1177
6031 4870 1161
6025 4895 1131
5953 4852 1100
5874 4792 1082
5842 4771 1071
5798 4742 1056
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
109
P e n s ac o l a – F erry P a s s – B re n t
P r o fi l e s
Out l o o k Summarie s
The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is comprised of Escambia County and Santa Rosa County. Located in the northwest corner of the state bordering Alabama, this region is home to the Pensacola Naval Air Station, Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval Aviation. This area has been referred to as the “Cradle of Naval Aviation.”
The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is expected to see low levels of growth in the economic indicators, relative to other metro areas. Personal income growth is expected to average 4.9 percent each year. The per capita income level is expected to be 28.9. The average annual wage growth rate should be at 2.5 percent, tied for lowest in the state. The average annual wage level is expected to be 41.6. Population growth will be at a rate of 0.6 percent, one of the lowest in the state, and the Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 11,580.55 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to average 1.2 percent each year. The unemployment rate will average 9.8 percent, one of the lowest in the state. Professional and Business Services will be the fastest growing sector in Pensacola, with 4.4 percent average annual growth. Manufacturing follows with a growth rate of 1.9 percent. The State and Local Government sector and the Federal Government sector are expected to decrease with average annual growth rates of -0.2 percent and -2.2 percent respectively.
QUICK FACTS:
• Metro population estimate of 455,102 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Escambia County population estimate of 303,343 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)
• Santa Rosa County population estimate of 151,759 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 212,083 in April 2010 (Florida Research and Economic Database)
• An unemployment rate of 10.2% as of April 2010, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 21,584 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Database) TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:
M etr o Ne w s Summarie s
• Federal Government – 7,403 employees
• More jobs are becoming available in Pensacola Beach, due in part to the Hurricane Ivan redevelopment projects, and to businesses opening, expanding, and relocating to the area within the past year.
• Local Government – 15,790 employees • State Government – 5,970 employees
• Sacred Heart Health System – 5,000 employees • Baptist Heath Care – 3,163 employees • Lakeview – 2,000 employees
• Gulf Power Company – 1,400 employees • Solutia, Inc. – 1,400 employees
• West Florida Hospital – 1,300 employees
• University of West Florida – 1,231 employees
Source: Greater Pensacola Chamber of Commerce
Pensacola Beach is on the rebound
• Three of the newest, major beach projects are expected to create 300 management and service jobs, both full and part-time.
• These projects include the $8 million The Grand Marlin opening, the completion of a $50 million Gulf-front luxury boutique hotel, and renovations to Castaway’s on Portofino Boardwalk. Source: Pensacola News Journal, April 30, 2010
110
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
P e n s ac o l a – F erry P a s s – B re n t
$400K grant helps Escambia clean up brownfield sites • The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has awarded Escambia County $400,000 to assess, clean up, and redevelop brownfield sites.
• Brownfield sites are areas of land that have toxic chemicals in the ground, left behind by old gas stations, dry cleaners, or other businesses that deal with toxic chemicals.
• Escambia County has 17 designated brownfield sites, where expansion or redevelopment of these areas is more complicated due to the pollution. Source: Pensacola News Journal, May 5, 2010
Crist sends $1.2M to Escambia, Santa Rosa
• Governor Charlie Crist has sent Escambia and Santa Rosa Counties a combined $1.2 million in emergency tourism advertising dollars.
• Escambia County’s Tourist Development Council received $700,000 of the funds, and the Tourist Development Council in Santa Rosa County received $500,000.
• Officials fear that national news coverage has convinced potential tourists that the beaches are covered in oil. The region’s tourism industry was affected as soon as the oil spill occurred. Source: Pensacola News Journal, June 1, 2010
Agreement will allow Milton prison to open on November 1
Oil spill: Sink meets with business owners
• The original contract between GEO and the state had projected an inmate population mix that would require chronic medical and mental health treatment.
• Sink visited the Escambia County Emergency Operations Center for a briefing on local response to the oil spill.
• The State of Florida and the private GEO Group have reached an agreement to open the Blackwater River Correctional Facility in East Milton.
• Due to budgetary constraints, the state revised the contract to allow for a less-costly inmate population mix of medium and close-custody security adult male inmates.
• Florida’s Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink visited local business owners to hear their concerns about the economic impact the oil spill will have on the area. She advised business owners to “get cash in your hands.”
• She sent a letter to BP executives requesting that the company’s CEO, Tony Hayward, appear before the state Cabinet. Source: Pensacola News Journal, June 3, 2010
Source: Pensacola News Journal, May 6, 2010
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
111
P e n s ac o l a – F erry P a s s – B re n t Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0
0.2
Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%
(percent)
0.6
112
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
Pensacola Payroll Employment 220.0
(Thousands)
180.0 160.0
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 FL Unemployment Rate Pensacola Unemployment Rate
140.0
Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product 24000.0 22000.0 20000.0 18000.0 16000.0 14000.0 12000.0 10000.0 8000.0
0.8
200.0
10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%
0.4
(Millions 2000 $)
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Pensacola Payroll Employment
Pensacola Real Personal Income 8.0%
(percent change year ago)
6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0%
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Gross Metro Product Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
-4.0%
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Personal Income
P e n s ac o l a – F erry P a s s – B re n t
Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
15.9 7 6.9 9.1 12.9 5.5 34.8 28.1 40.3 3.2
16.1 6.6 6.9 9.2 13 5.3 35.1 28.3 40.6 3
16.2 7.1 6.9 9.3 13 5.7 35.5 28.4 40.8 2.9
16.4 3.7 7 9.4 13.1 2.1 35.7 28.5 41 2.5
16.6 4 7.1 9.5 13.2 2.3 36.1 28.7 41.2 2.3
16.8 4.2 7.2 9.6 13.3 2.4 36.5 28.9 41.4 2.1
17 4.6 7.3 9.7 13.4 2.8 36.9 29 41.6 2
17.2 5 7.3 9.9 13.5 3.2 37.3 29.2 41.8 2
17.4 5.2 7.4 10 13.6 3.3 37.7 29.4 42.1 2.1
17.6 5.1 7.5 10.1 13.7 3.2 38 29.5 42.3 2.2
17.8 4.7 7.6 10.2 13.7 2.8 38.3 29.6 42.6 2.4
18 4.5 7.7 10.2 13.8 2.5 38.6 29.7 42.9 2.6
18.2 4.4 7.8 10.4 13.9 2.4 38.9 29.8 43.2 2.7
18.4 4.4 7.9 10.5 14 2.5 39.3 29.9 43.5 2.7
156.9 0.8 5.4 3.4 151.5 0.7 9.7 -1.6 29.9 0.3 5.3 20 4.6 3 3.4 8.5 1.4 21.2 7.4 28.9 2.2 15.5 -3.5 6.9 0.7 6.1 -5.9 21.7 -1.1
158 1.7 5.4 3.6 152.6 1.7 9.8 1 30.1 1 5.3 20.1 4.7 3.1 3 8.6 3.2 21.4 6 29.1 2.5 15.8 0.6 7 0.7 6.1 -3.2 21.7 -0.6
159.4 2.9 5.5 4.4 153.9 2.8 9.9 3.6 30.3 1.8 5.4 20.2 4.7 3.1 2.5 8.7 3.4 21.6 4.2 29.1 2.5 16.6 10.7 7 0.3 6 -2.7 21.7 -0.2
160.7 3.2 5.6 4.4 155.2 3.1 10.1 5.5 30.6 2.8 5.4 20.3 4.8 3.1 2 8.7 3 21.7 3.3 29.3 2.2 17.1 11.7 6.9 0 6 -2 21.7 0.3
161.9 3.2 5.6 4.3 156.3 3.2 10.3 6.3 30.8 3.1 5.5 20.5 4.9 3.1 1.9 8.8 2.6 21.9 3.2 29.4 1.7 17.3 11.5 7 0.2 6 -1.5 21.8 0.6
163.2 3.3 5.6 3.9 157.5 3.3 10.5 7 31 3.2 5.5 20.6 4.9 3.1 2 8.8 1.9 22.2 3.7 29.5 1.4 17.5 10.9 7 0.2 6 -1.2 21.9 0.9
164.3 3 5.7 3.4 158.6 3 10.7 8 31.2 3.2 5.6 20.7 4.9 3.1 2.2 8.8 1.3 22.6 4.9 29.5 1.3 17.7 6.7 7 0.3 6 -1 21.9 1.1
165.7 3.1 5.7 2.9 160 3.1 10.9 8.1 31.5 3.1 5.6 20.8 5 3.2 2.5 8.8 1 22.9 5.9 29.6 1.1 18.1 6.2 7 0.2 6 -1.1 22 1.3
166.7 2.9 5.7 2.4 160.9 2.9 11.1 8 31.7 2.8 5.7 20.9 5 3.2 2.5 8.8 0.7 23.2 6.1 29.7 0.9 18.2 5.3 7 0.1 6 -1.2 22.1 1.4
167.4 2.6 5.8 1.9 161.7 2.6 11.3 7.6 31.8 2.4 5.7 21 5.1 3.2 2.2 8.8 0.5 23.6 6.1 29.7 0.6 18.3 4.2 7 -0.1 5.9 -1.3 22.2 1.4
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
155.6 -1.3 5.2 1 150.4 -1.4 9.8 -5.7 29.8 -1.4 5.2 20 4.5 2.9 -3.9 8.4 -1 19.8 0.7 28.3 0.4 16.1 -5.3 6.9 1.2 6.5 -0.5 21.9 -1.5
155.3 -1.9 5.2 3.8 150.1 -2 9.7 -5.6 29.8 0 5.2 20 4.5 3 -2.7 8.4 -2 20.2 3.1 28.4 -0.4 15.7 -10.9 6.9 1 6.3 -3.4 21.8 -3.2
155 -1.8 5.3 3.6 149.7 -2 9.6 -5.8 29.7 -0.1 5.2 20 4.5 3 1.5 8.4 -1.3 20.7 5.6 28.4 0 15 -14.9 6.9 1.2 6.2 -6.7 21.7 -2.1
155.8 -1 5.3 3.3 150.5 -1.2 9.6 -5.4 29.7 -0.4 5.2 19.9 4.5 3 2.7 8.5 0.1 21 7.9 28.7 1.7 15.3 -11.2 6.9 0.7 6.2 -12.8 21.7 -1.9
11130.4 11174.3 11202.9 11274.1 11371.1 457.8 458 458.2 458.5 459.1 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 214 213.4 212.8 212 211.3 1.6 0.6 -0.7 -1.2 -1.2 11.4 11.4 11.2 11 10.5 1565 1589 1878 2075 2235 1697 1670 1760 1931 2078 -131 -81 117 144 157
11464 11561.9 11670.1 11773.9 11876.7 11952.1 12049.6 12135.2 12208.7 459.8 460.6 461.6 462.6 463.6 464.7 465.9 467.1 468.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1 1 210.7 210.1 209.5 208.7 208.9 209.2 209.5 209.9 210.2 -1.2 -1.3 -1.2 -1.3 -0.9 -0.4 0 0.6 0.6 10.1 9.8 9.4 9 8.7 8.3 8 7.8 7.6 2246 2352 2397 2527 2588 2623 2713 2764 2758 2136 2203 2255 2361 2398 2417 2497 2541 2530 110 149 143 165 190 206 217 223 227
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
113
P e n s ac o l a – F erry P a s s – B re n t
Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
11.3 4.4 5.5 5.8
12.1 7.9 5.9 6.2
13 7.2 6.3 6.7
14.1 8.6 6.8 7.4
14.7 4 6.9 7.8
15.1 2.8 6.9 8.2
14.9 -1.1 6.8 8.2
15.8 5.5 6.9 8.9
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
10.7 2.3
11.2 5.1
11.7 4.1
12.3 5.7
12.5 1.3
12.4 -0.6
12.3 -1.3
12.7 3.8
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
25.9 24.6
27.6 25.5
29.2 26.2
31.4 27.5
32.6 27.7
33.3 27.4
32.8 27
34.4 27.8
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
31.5 3
33.3 6
34.6 3.9
36.4 5.1
37.2 2.3
38.5 3.4
39.1 1.5
40.1 2.8
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
158.8 2.5
163.2 2.8
169 3.6
173.4 2.6
173.5 0.1
166.1 -4.3
158.4 -4.6
156.5 -1.2
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
7.4 1.1
7.3 -1.3
7.5 3.1
7.4 -1.4
7 -5.3
6.5 -7.9
5.3 -18
5.2 -2.7
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
151.4 2.6
155.9 3
161.5 3.6
166 2.8
166.5 0.3
159.6 -4.1
153.1 -4.1
151.4 -1.1
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
10.8 -2.8
11.6 7.8
13.9 19.4
15.4 10.4
14.7 -3.9
12.7 -14.1
10.7 -15.9
9.9 -6.7
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
30.2 1
31.2 3.1
33.1 6.1
33 -0.2
33.8 2.5
32.3 -4.5
30.3 -6.3
29.8 -1.5
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
5.3 20.8 4.1
5.6 21.1 4.5
6.2 21.9 5
6.2 21.8 5
6.7 22.2 4.9
6.1 21.3 4.9
5.4 20.2 4.6
5.2 20 4.5
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
4.1 -2
3.9 -4.5
3.8 -4.7
3.8 0.7
3.6 -5.8
3.5 -2.6
3.2 -8.9
3 -6.4
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
6.8 4.6
7.5 9.8
8.2 9.9
8.9 8.4
9.2 3.1
8.8 -3.6
8.6 -3.1
8.4 -1.6
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
19.6 4.7
21.1 7.4
22.6 7.3
22.7 0.6
21.8 -4.3
20.3 -6.6
19.5 -4.3
19.8 1.6
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
26.8 6.2
26.7 -0.4
26 -2.9
27.5 5.9
28.7 4.2
28.2 -1.5
28.1 -0.3
28.3 0.6
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
16.6 6.1
17.4 4.7
17.3 -0.9
17.7 2.5
17.7 -0.1
17.6 -0.4
17.2 -2.1
16.7 -3.4
7.9 2.6
7.9 0.9
7.8 -1.6
7.8 0
7.8 -0.4
7.3 -6.3
6.8 -6.3
6.9 1
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
6.9 -0.5
6.7 -2.2
6.7 -0.5
6.7 0.4
6.6 -2.5
6.5 -0.8
6.5 0.3
6.6 1.3
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
21.6 0
21.8 0.9
22.2 2
22.5 1.4
22.7 1.1
22.3 -1.7
22.2 -0.6
22 -0.9
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
9936.1
10369.3
11049
11469.1
11475.1
11315.9
11038.4
11187.1
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
434.4 1.4
440.5 1.4
445.4 1.1
449.4 0.9
450.8 0.3
453.3 0.6
455.4 0.5
457.5 0.5
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
191.1 2.1
193.8 1.4
201.5 4
206 2.2
209.4 1.7
208.9 -0.2
210.5 0.8
214.1 1.7
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
114
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
4.8
4.6
3.7
3.1
3.7
5.8
9.6
11.2
4424 3556 868
4711 3629 1082
3764 3284 480
2770 2322 448
2464 1780 684
1317 1125 192
1081 1029 53
1911 1746 165
Continued
P e n s ac o l a – F erry P a s s – B re n t
Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
16.5 4.7 7 9.5
17.3 5 7.4 9.9
18.1 4.5 7.8 10.3
19.1 5.5 8.1 10.9
20.1 5.4 8.5 11.6
21.2 5.4 8.9 12.3
22.3 5.3 9.2 13.1
23.4 5 9.6 13.9
24.6 5.2 9.9 14.7
25.9 5.1 10.3 15.6
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
13.1 3.1
13.5 3.1
13.9 2.5
14.4 3.5
14.9 3.4
15.4 3.4
15.9 3.2
16.3 2.9
16.8 3.2
17.4 3.2
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
35.9 28.6
37.5 29.3
38.8 29.8
40.5 30.5
42.2 31.2
44 31.9
45.9 32.6
47.7 33.2
49.6 33.9
51.6 34.6
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
41.1 2.4
42 2.1
43.1 2.6
44.3 2.8
45.5 2.9
46.9 3
48.3 3
49.8 3
51.3 3
52.7 2.9
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
156.4 -0.1
161.3 3.1
166 2.9
169.1 1.9
171.6 1.5
174.1 1.4
176 1.1
177.5 0.8
179 0.8
180.6 0.9
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
5.4 3.5
5.6 4.2
5.7 2.6
5.8 0.7
5.7 -0.6
5.7 -1.2
5.6 -1.2
5.5 -1.1
5.5 -1.3
5.4 -1.2
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
151.1 -0.2
155.7 3.1
160.3 2.9
163.4 1.9
165.9 1.5
168.4 1.5
170.4 1.2
172 0.9
173.5 0.9
175.2 1
9.6 -3
10.2 5.6
11 7.9
11.5 4.6
11.7 2.1
12 2.6
12.3 2.3
12.6 2
12.7 0.8
12.8 0.9
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
29.9 0.2
30.7 2.7
31.5 2.9
32 1.6
32.3 1
32.4 0.2
32.4 -0.1
32.4 0
32.4 0.1
32.4 -0.1
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
5.2 20 4.6
5.5 20.4 4.8
5.6 20.8 5
5.8 21 5.1
5.9 21.1 5.3
5.9 21 5.4
6 20.8 5.4
6 20.7 5.5
6.1 20.7 5.5
6.1 20.6 5.4
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
3 2.7
3.1 2.1
3.2 2.4
3.2 1.4
3.2 1
3.3 1.1
3.3 1.3
3.4 0.8
3.4 0.7
3.4 0.3
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
8.5 0.8
8.7 2.7
8.8 0.9
8.8 0.1
8.8 0.3
8.9 0.3
8.9 0.2
8.9 -0.1
8.9 0.1
8.9 -0.1
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
21.1 6.7
21.8 3.6
23.1 5.7
24.3 5.3
25.6 5.5
27.1 5.7
28.3 4.6
29.3 3.3
30.3 3.6
31.4 3.5
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
28.8 1.6
29.3 2
29.6 1
30 1.4
30.5 1.5
31.1 2
31.6 1.5
32 1.3
32.3 1.1
32.7 1.3
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
15.4 -7.5
17.1 11.2
18.1 5.6
18.3 1
18.2 -0.2
18.2 -0.3
18.1 -0.4
18 -0.5
18 -0.2
17.8 -0.7
6.9 0.8
7 0.2
7 0.1
7 0.4
7 0.2
7 0
7 -0.1
7 -0.3
7 -0.2
7 -0.1
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
6.1 -7.3
6 -1.8
6 -1.1
5.9 -0.7
5.9 -0.4
5.9 -0.1
5.9 0.1
5.9 0.1
5.9 0.2
6.2 4
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
21.7 -1.5
21.8 0.4
22 1.3
22.3 1.1
22.5 0.8
22.5 0.3
22.6 0.4
22.7 0.2
22.7 0.1
22.7 -0.1
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
11328
11720.7
12086.4
12461.6
12823.6
13201.5
13544.4
13876.3
14229.9
14574.1
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
458.9 0.3
462.1 0.7
466.5 1
471.5 1.1
476.4 1
481.4 1
486.4 1
491.5 1
496.6 1
501.6 1
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
211.7 -1.1
209.3 -1.1
209.7 0.2
210.9 0.6
213 1
214.9 0.9
216.7 0.8
218.6 0.8
220.3 0.8
221.9 0.7
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%)
10.7
9.2
8
7.2
6.8
6.4
6
5.7
5.4
5
Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
2108 1976 132
2466 2304 162
2715 2496 218
2738 2495 243
2762 2489 273
2818 2522 296
2821 2515 306
2808 2501 307
2842 2519 323
2859 2527 332
Continued
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
115
P e n s ac o l a – F erry P a s s – B re n t
Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
27.1 4.8 10.7 16.4
28.4 4.6 11.1 17.3
29.7 4.4 11.6 18.1
30.9 4.3 12 19
32.3 4.4 12.4 19.9
33.7 4.4 12.9 20.8
35.2 4.5 13.4 21.8
36.7 4.3 13.9 22.8
38.3 4.3 14.5 23.8
39.9 4.2 15.1 24.9
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
17.9 3
18.4 2.8
18.9 2.6
19.3 2.4
19.8 2.4
20.3 2.6
20.8 2.6
21.3 2.4
21.8 2.4
22.3 2.3
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
53.6 35.3
55.5 35.9
57.4 36.5
59.3 37
61.3 37.6
63.5 38.2
65.8 38.9
68 39.5
70.4 40.1
72.8 40.7
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
54.3 2.9
55.8 2.9
57.4 2.9
59.1 2.8
60.8 2.9
62.6 3
64.6 3.1
66.5 3.1
68.6 3.1
70.7 3.1
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
182.2 0.9
184.3 1.2
186.2 1
187.5 0.7
189.1 0.9
190.9 1
192.6 0.9
194.3 0.9
196.2 1
198.2 1
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
5.3 -2.2
5.1 -2.5
5 -2.7
4.9 -2.4
4.8 -2.2
4.7 -2
4.6 -1.8
4.5 -1.9
4.4 -1.7
4.4 -1.5
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
176.9 1
179.2 1.3
181.2 1.1
182.6 0.8
184.4 1
186.3 1
188 0.9
189.8 0.9
191.7 1
193.9 1.1
13 1.4
13.2 1.7
13.4 1.7
13.6 1.3
13.8 1.4
14 1.9
14.2 1.5
14.4 1.1
14.5 1
14.7 1.2
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
32.4 0.2
32.7 0.9
33 0.8
33.2 0.6
33.4 0.5
33.5 0.4
33.7 0.4
33.8 0.4
33.9 0.4
34 0.1
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
6.2 20.6 5.5
6.4 20.6 5.6
6.5 20.7 5.7
6.6 20.7 5.8
6.6 20.7 5.9
6.7 20.8 5.9
6.8 20.8 6
6.8 20.9 6
6.9 20.9 6
7 20.9 6
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
3.4 0.6
3.4 1
3.5 0.9
3.5 0.6
3.5 0.6
3.5 1
3.6 1.2
3.6 1.3
3.7 1.5
3.7 1.3
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
8.9 -0.1
8.9 0.7
9 0.6
9 0.6
9.1 0.9
9.2 0.8
9.3 0.8
9.4 0.9
9.4 0.9
9.5 0.9
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
32.8 4.4
34.2 4.2
35.3 3.3
36.1 2.4
37.2 3.1
38.4 3.2
39.5 2.7
40.6 2.8
41.9 3.2
43.2 3
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
32.9 0.6
33.1 0.6
33.3 0.6
33.5 0.5
33.7 0.5
33.8 0.5
34 0.6
34.2 0.6
34.5 0.7
34.7 0.6
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
17.8 -0.4
17.8 0.1
17.8 0
17.7 -0.3
17.7 -0.3
17.7 -0.1
17.7 0.1
17.7 0.1
17.8 0.2
17.7 -0.1
7 0.5
7.1 0.9
7.1 0.7
7.2 0.7
7.2 0.9
7.3 0.5
7.3 0.3
7.3 0.3
7.3 0.3
7.4 0.4
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
6.1 -1.6
6.1 0.5
6.1 0.1
6.1 0.1
6.1 0
6.1 0
6.1 0
6.1 0
6.1 0
6.5 6
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
22.7 -0.1
22.7 0
22.7 0
22.7 -0.1
22.7 0
22.7 -0.1
22.6 -0.1
22.6 -0.1
22.6 -0.1
22.6 -0.2
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
14947.2
15357
15759.6
16148.7
16565.2
16971.7
17358.5
17747.9
18151.4
18582.3
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
506.6 1
511.5 1
516.4 1
521.3 1
526.2 0.9
530.9 0.9
535.5 0.9
540 0.8
544.3 0.8
548.5 0.8
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
223.1 0.6
224.3 0.5
225.5 0.5
226.8 0.6
228.2 0.6
230 0.8
231.9 0.8
233.8 0.8
235.8 0.8
237.7 0.8
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.9
2788 2475 313
2810 2492 319
2810 2498 312
2833 2525 308
2883 2578 305
2910 2604 306
2860 2555 305
2780 2478 302
2731 2435 296
2747 2455 291
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
116
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
Continued
P e n s ac o l a – F erry P a s s – B re n t
Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
41.6 4.2 15.7 25.9
43.4 4.4 16.4 27.1
45.3 4.2 17 28.2
47.1 4 17.6 29.5
49 4 18.2 30.7
50.9 4 18.8 32.1
52.9 3.9 19.5 33.4
54.9 3.8 20.1 34.8
56.9 3.7 20.8 36.2
59.1 3.8 21.5 37.6
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
22.8 2.3
23.4 2.4
23.9 2.2
24.4 2.1
24.9 2
25.4 2
25.9 1.9
26.3 1.8
26.8 1.7
27.3 1.8
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
75.3 41.3
78.1 42
80.8 42.7
83.5 43.3
86.3 43.9
89.2 44.5
92.1 45.1
95.2 45.7
98.2 46.2
101.4 46.8
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
72.9 3.1
75.2 3.2
77.5 3
79.8 3
82.1 2.9
84.5 2.9
87 2.9
89.5 2.9
92 2.8
94.7 2.9
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
200.2 1
202.8 1.3
204.7 0.9
206 0.6
207 0.5
208.3 0.6
209.6 0.6
210.5 0.4
211.4 0.4
212.4 0.5
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
4.3 -1.3
4.3 -1.4
4.2 -1.6
4.1 -1.5
4.1 -1.6
4 -1.5
3.9 -1.5
3.9 -1.4
3.8 -1
3.8 -0.8
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
195.9 1
198.6 1.4
200.6 1
201.9 0.7
203 0.5
204.3 0.7
205.6 0.6
206.6 0.5
207.5 0.5
208.6 0.5
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
15 1.9
15.3 2
15.6 1.9
15.7 1
15.9 0.8
16 0.9
16.2 1.1
16.3 0.9
16.4 0.9
16.5 0.5
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
34 0.1
34 0
34 0
33.9 -0.2
33.9 -0.3
33.8 -0.2
33.7 -0.2
33.6 -0.2
33.6 -0.2
33.5 -0.3
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
7 20.9 6
7 20.9 6
7 21 5.9
6.9 21 5.9
6.9 21 5.8
6.9 21 5.8
6.8 21.1 5.7
6.8 21.1 5.7
6.7 21.2 5.6
6.7 21.2 5.5
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
3.8 1.8
3.9 2.4
4 1.8
4 1
4 0.8
4.1 1
4.1 1.3
4.2 1.3
4.2 1.2
4.3 0.5
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
9.6 1.1
9.7 1.1
9.8 1
9.9 0.9
10 0.8
10.1 0.9
10.2 0.7
10.2 0.7
10.3 0.6
10.3 0.1
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
44.7 3.6
46.6 4.2
47.9 2.8
48.9 2.1
49.8 1.9
50.9 2.2
52 2.1
52.8 1.5
53.6 1.5
54.6 1.9
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
34.9 0.7
35.2 0.9
35.4 0.6
35.5 0.3
35.5 0.1
35.6 0.2
35.7 0.1
35.8 0.3
35.9 0.2
35.9 0.2
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
17.8 0.3
17.9 0.4
17.9 0.3
18 0.2
18 0.3
18 0.2
18.1 0.1
18.1 -0.1
18.1 0.3
18 -0.4
7.4 0.2
7.4 0.2
7.4 0.3
7.4 0.3
7.5 0.2
7.5 0.3
7.5 0
7.5 -0.1
7.5 -0.1
7.4 -0.3
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
6.2 -4.3
6.2 0
6.2 0
6.2 0
6.2 0
6.2 0
6.2 0
6.2 -0.1
6.2 -0.1
6.4 4.4
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
22.5 -0.2
22.5 -0.2
22.4 -0.3
22.3 -0.3
22.2 -0.4
22.1 -0.4
22.1 -0.4
21.9 -0.5
21.8 -0.7
21.6 -0.8
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
19045.3
19518.9
19978.7
20426
20870.7
21348
21848.3
22334.9
22854
23413.8
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
552.6 0.7
556.5 0.7
560.3 0.7
563.9 0.6
567.3 0.6
570.7 0.6
573.9 0.6
576.9 0.5
579.8 0.5
582.8 0.5
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
239.5 0.8
241.4 0.8
243.2 0.8
245 0.7
246.8 0.7
248.6 0.7
250.3 0.7
252 0.7
253.8 0.7
255.4 0.6
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
4.9
4.9
5
5
5
5
5
5.1
5.1
5.1
2731 2445 287
2659 2373 285
2634 2354 280
2652 2377 275
2671 2403 269
2675 2417 259
2646 2397 249
2611 2369 241
2595 2360 235
2574 2347 227
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
117
T a l l aha s s ee
P r o fi l e s
Out l o o k Summarie s
The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla counties. It is located between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State University and Florida A&M University.
The Tallahassee MSA is expected to show minimal growth in the economic indicators relative to other metro areas in the state. The area should see personal income growth averaging 4.6 percent each year, one of the lowest in the state. Per capita income levels should average 28.6. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.8 percent, and the average annual wage level will be 42.1. Population growth will be at 0.9 percent, and the Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 11,434.08 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to be 0.8 percent each year, the lowest in the state. The unemployment rate, however, will average 7.7 percent, the second lowest in the state. Professional and Business Services will be the fastest growing sector in Tallahassee, averaging 3.6 percent annually. Manufacturing and Education and Health Services sectors follow with growth rates of 3.2 percent and 1.8 percent respectively. The State and Local Government, Information and Federal Government sectors are expected to decline with average annual growth rates of -0.2 percent, -0.8 percent and -3.9 percent respectively.
Quick Facts:
• Metro population estimate of 300,413 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Gadsden County population estimate of 47,474 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Jefferson County population estimate of 14,010 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)
• Leon County population estimate of 265,714 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Wakulla County population estimate of 32,815 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • An MSA civilian labor force of 194,701 in April 2010 (Florida Research and Economic Database)
• An unemployment rate of 7.9% as of April 2010, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 15,410 unemployed people for the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:
• State Government (all departments) – 46,800 employees • Florida State University – 8,784 employees • Tallahassee Memorial Healthcare – 3,480 employees
• Florida A&M University – 3,468 employees • City of Tallahassee – 2,633 employees
• Federal Government (all departments) – 2,100 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 2,000 employees • Walmart Stores, Inc. – 1,900 employees • Leon County – 1522 employees
• Tallahassee Community College – 1090 employees Source: Tallahassee Economic Development Council and Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation (CES) 118
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
M etr o Ne w s Summarie s Syn-Tech wins $5.7 million Air Force contract
• Syn-Tech Systems Inc., a Tallahassee-based manufacturer, has been awarded a $5.7 million Air Force contract to build ammunition systems for the A-10 Thunderbolt Aircraft over the next two years.
• Due to this and several other projects, including increased demand for the company’s Fuelmaster management system, Syn-Tech anticipates hiring more personnel. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, April 23, 2010
T a l l aha s s ee
Researchers receive climate study grant
New airport opens this weekend
• The grant will be used to research methods used for forecasting climate perils in the Southeast United States.
• Officials at Tallahassee Regional Airport are not expecting the new airport to affect their service, as Tallahassee Regional primarily attracts business fliers.
• The Southeast Climate Consortium, which includes researchers at Florida State University, was granted $2.5 million for research by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
• The Consortium is led by FSU and is comprised of several other Florida universities, as well as others in the Southeastern United States. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, May 7, 2010
EDC proposes downtown project for Recovery Zone financing
• A $9.8 million development in downtown Tallahassee has been proposed, and will use the Recovery Zone Facility Bonds that Tallahassee and Leon County were given as part of a federal stimulus package. • The project was proposed by Hunter & Harp Holdings, LLC and will cost a total of $14.5 million.
• The development will have retail space on the ground floor and office space above. A parking garage with about 90 spaces is also proposed as part of the project. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, May 11, 2010
• Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport located in Panama City began flights on May 23rd, and is the first new international commercial airport built in the past 15 years.
• The airport will offer direct daily flights to Atlanta, Baltimore, Houston, Memphis, Nashville, and Orlando, with services provided by Delta and Southwest Airlines. • Lee Daniel, executive director of Visit Tallahassee, hopes the new airport will bring more international tourism to the Tallahassee region. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, May 22, 2010
No layoffs as Florida A&M University passes budget
• Trustees at Florida A&M University passed the budget for 2010-2011, which declined by $3.1 million from last year but did not include any layoffs.
• Federal stimulus money maintained the budget for this year, but the university will have to find a new way to pay for the salaries of 100 employees, including 26 faculty, which the stimulus money currently supports. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, June 2, 2010
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
119
T a l l aha s s ee Tallahassee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0
0.5
Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate (percent)
14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 FL Unemployment Rate Tallahassee Unemployment Rate
1
25000.0
3
230.0 220.0 210.0 200.0 190.0 180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0
(Thousands)
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Tallahassee Payroll Employment
Tallahassee Real Personal Income 10.0%
(percent change year ago)
6.0% 4.0%
15000.0
2.0% 0.0%
10000.0
120
2.5
8.0%
20000.0
5000.0
2
Tallahassee Payroll Employment
Tallahassee Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $)
1.5
-2.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Gross Metro Product Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
-4.0%
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Personal Income
T a l l aha s s ee
Quarterly Outlook for Tallahassee, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
12.6 6.1 6.9 5.6 10.1 4.5 34.5 27.9 40.6 3.5
12.7 5.9 7 5.7 10.2 4.6 34.8 28 40.9 3.3
12.8 6.6 7 5.8 10.3 5.2 35.2 28.2 41.2 3.4
12.9 4.2 7.1 5.9 10.3 2.6 35.4 28.3 41.5 2.9
13.1 4.2 7.2 5.9 10.4 2.5 35.7 28.4 41.7 2.8
13.2 4.2 7.2 6 10.5 2.4 36 28.5 42 2.5
13.4 4.2 7.3 6.1 10.5 2.4 36.4 28.7 42.2 2.4
13.5 4.6 7.4 6.2 10.6 2.8 36.7 28.8 42.5 2.5
13.7 4.8 7.5 6.2 10.7 2.9 37.1 28.9 42.8 2.5
13.9 4.8 7.6 6.3 10.8 2.9 37.4 29 43.1 2.7
14 4.6 7.7 6.3 10.8 2.6 37.7 29.1 43.4 2.8
14.2 4.5 7.8 6.4 10.9 2.5 38 29.2 43.7 3
14.3 4.5 7.9 6.5 11 2.5 38.3 29.3 44.1 3.1
14.5 4.5 8 6.5 11 2.6 38.6 29.5 44.4 3.1
170.9 0.7 4 4.2 166.9 0.6 6.4 -1.3 22.3 -0.1 3.3 17.2 1.8 3.1 2.9 7.4 1.1 19.6 7.1 20.5 2.1 16 -0.6 10.2 0.8 1.7 -5.7 59.6 -1.1
171.6 1.1 4.1 4.5 167.5 1 6.5 0.9 22.4 0.6 3.3 17.3 1.8 3.1 2.6 7.4 2.9 19.9 6.1 20.7 2.5 15.9 -0.4 10.3 0.9 1.7 -2.7 59.6 -0.6
172.2 1.3 4.1 5.3 168.1 1.2 6.6 3.1 22.5 1.3 3.4 17.4 1.8 3.2 2.2 7.5 3.2 20 4.4 20.7 2.4 16 0.1 10.3 0.5 1.7 -2.3 59.6 -0.3
173 1.5 4.2 5.5 168.9 1.5 6.7 4.7 22.7 2.4 3.4 17.5 1.9 3.2 1.8 7.5 2.8 20.1 3.5 20.8 2.2 16.2 0.8 10.3 0.3 1.7 -1.6 59.8 0.1
174 1.8 4.2 5.4 169.7 1.7 6.8 5.4 22.9 2.8 3.4 17.6 1.9 3.2 2 7.5 2.4 20.3 3.3 20.9 1.7 16.3 1.8 10.3 0.4 1.7 -1.1 59.9 0.5
174.9 1.9 4.3 4.9 170.7 1.9 6.9 6.1 23.1 3 3.5 17.7 1.9 3.2 2.2 7.5 1.7 20.6 3.5 20.9 1.4 16.4 2.6 10.3 0.4 1.7 -0.8 60.1 0.8
175.8 2.1 4.3 4.3 171.5 2.1 7 7.1 23.2 3 3.5 17.7 1.9 3.2 2.4 7.6 1.1 20.9 4.5 20.9 1.2 16.4 2.5 10.3 0.5 1.7 -0.6 60.2 1
176.8 2.2 4.3 3.9 172.5 2.1 7.2 7.4 23.4 2.9 3.5 17.8 1.9 3.3 2.6 7.6 0.7 21.2 5.5 21 1 16.5 1.9 10.3 0.4 1.7 -0.7 60.4 1.1
177.6 2.1 4.4 3.4 173.3 2.1 7.3 7.4 23.5 2.7 3.5 17.9 2 3.3 2.5 7.6 0.5 21.4 5.7 21 0.8 16.5 1.3 10.3 0.2 1.7 -0.8 60.6 1.3
178.4 2 4.4 2.8 174 1.9 7.4 7.2 23.6 2.3 3.6 18 2 3.3 2.3 7.6 0.3 21.8 5.8 21.1 0.6 16.5 0.8 10.3 0 1.7 -0.8 60.8 1.3
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
169.8 -0.6 3.8 -0.9 166 -0.6 6.5 -6.9 22.3 -0.8 3.3 17.2 1.7 3 -8.1 7.3 -1.7 18.4 -0.4 20.1 3.6 16.1 1.1 10.2 2.2 1.8 -9.1 60.3 -1.3
169.7 -0.6 3.9 2.2 165.8 -0.7 6.4 -5.4 22.3 -0.6 3.2 17.2 1.7 3.1 -5.9 7.2 -2.7 18.7 1.2 20.2 1.1 16 -0.5 10.2 1.9 1.8 -10.2 60 -1
170 -0.2 3.9 3.9 166.1 -0.3 6.4 -4.9 22.3 0.1 3.2 17.2 1.8 3.1 -0.7 7.2 -1.5 19.1 5 20.2 1.7 16 -0.3 10.2 1.8 1.8 -10.9 59.8 -1.9
170.4 0 4 4 166.4 -0.1 6.4 -4.9 22.2 -0.6 3.3 17.1 1.8 3.1 2.2 7.3 -0.1 19.4 6.8 20.4 1.6 16 -0.4 10.2 0.7 1.7 -12.3 59.7 -1.8
11032.5 11082.2 11131.1 11193.4 11279.6 11362.8 11438.3 11530.4 11623.6 11717.2 11783.4 11865.5 363.9 364.6 365.2 365.6 366.2 366.9 367.7 368.7 369.7 370.7 371.7 372.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 1 1 1.1 1.1 194.9 193.7 192.6 191.4 190.3 189.2 188.2 187.2 186.1 186.4 186.7 187 1 0.2 -1.6 -2.4 -2.4 -2.3 -2.3 -2.2 -2.2 -1.5 -0.8 -0.1 9 9 8.7 8.5 8.2 7.9 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.3 1047 1106 1301 1496 1666 1777 1905 2034 2203 2277 2319 2408 855 892 1015 1200 1379 1505 1640 1778 1903 1926 1928 1987 192 214 286 297 287 272 266 256 301 351 391 421
11945 12015.9 373.8 374.9 1.1 1.1 187.2 187.5 0.6 0.6 6.1 6 2471 2483 2017 2002 454 482
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
121
T a l l aha s s ee
Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
9 3.7 5.6 3.4
9.8 8.5 5.9 3.9
10.6 7.8 6.2 4.3
11.2 6.3 6.6 4.7
11.8 4.8 6.9 4.9
12 2.1 6.9 5.1
11.9 -1.1 6.8 5.1
12.4 4.6 6.9 5.5
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
8.6 1.6
9.1 5.7
9.5 4.6
9.8 3.5
10 2
9.9 -1.2
9.8 -1.3
10.1 2.9
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
27.1 25.8
29.1 26.9
30.9 27.7
32.3 28.2
33.3 28.3
33.6 27.7
33 27.1
34.2 27.7
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
33.9 2.3
35.3 4.2
36.2 2.5
37.2 2.8
38.4 3.2
39 1.5
39.3 0.8
40.4 2.9
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
164.7 0.8
167.1 1.5
171.8 2.8
176 2.4
178 1.1
176.3 -0.9
171.7 -2.6
170 -1
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
4.1 -0.6
4.2 2
4.2 0.8
4.5 4.9
4.6 2.8
4.3 -7.1
3.8 -9.5
3.8 -0.5
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
160.6 0.8
162.9 1.5
167.5 2.8
171.5 2.4
173.4 1.1
172.1 -0.8
167.8 -2.5
166.2 -1
7.7 7.1
8.3 8.5
9.4 12.4
9.8 4.8
9.5 -3
8.6 -9.7
7.1 -17.3
6.6 -7.5
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
23.5 0.5
24.6 4.4
25.4 3.4
25.6 0.9
25.3 -1.2
24.2 -4.5
22.6 -6.6
22.3 -1.3
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
3 18.5 2
3.3 19.1 2.1
3.6 19.3 2.5
3.7 19.4 2.4
3.8 19.1 2.4
3.6 18.5 2.1
3.4 17.5 1.8
3.3 17.2 1.7
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
3.4 -4.2
3.6 5.1
3.7 2.1
3.5 -5.2
3.6 2.9
3.6 0.5
3.4 -5.9
3.1 -9.3
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
7.7 3
7.6 -0.7
8 4.8
8.3 4.4
8.2 -1.9
7.9 -2.9
7.4 -6.3
7.3 -2
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
17.2 -0.1
17.2 -0.3
18.2 5.9
19.1 5.1
18.9 -1.2
19.1 1.3
18.6 -3
18.4 -1.1
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
17.1 1.1
16.8 -1.7
17.2 2.6
17.8 3.3
18.5 3.8
19.2 4
19.6 1.7
20 2.5
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
13.6 1.6
14.4 6.1
15.6 8.3
16.2 3.3
16.7 3.6
16.5 -1.5
16.2 -1.7
16.1 -0.9
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
7.8 -3.7
8 2.8
8 -0.6
8.5 5.8
9 5.9
9.7 8.8
10 2.7
10.1 1.1
2 3
1.9 -3.3
1.9 0
1.9 -1.7
1.9 0
2 3.9
2 1.8
1.9 -5.5
60.6 0.8
60.5 -0.2
60.2 -0.5
60.8 1.2
61.8 1.6
61.2 -1
61 -0.3
60.5 -0.8
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
9369.2
9753.9
10379.5
10714
10828.3
10875.1
10730.6
11014.6
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
332.9 1.5
337.4 1.3
342.3 1.5
348.1 1.7
353.8 1.6
357.5 1
360.4 0.8
363.5 0.9
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
173.4 0.5
172.9 -0.3
178 3
182.3 2.4
186.6 2.4
190.8 2.3
193.4 1.4
195.1 0.9
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
122
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
4.2
3.8
3.2
2.8
3.2
4.6
7.4
9.1
3820 2422 1397
3381 2131 1250
3701 2766 935
3097 2535 562
2767 2171 596
1240 961 279
803 669 134
978 813 165
Continued
T a l l aha s s ee
Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
13 4.8 7.1 5.9
13.6 4.6 7.4 6.2
14.2 4.5 7.8 6.4
15 5.6 8.2 6.8
15.8 5.4 8.6 7.3
16.7 5.4 9 7.7
17.6 5.2 9.4 8.2
18.4 4.9 9.8 8.6
19.4 5 10.2 9.1
20.3 5 10.6 9.7
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
10.4 3.2
10.7 2.8
10.9 2.6
11.3 3.6
11.7 3.4
12.1 3.4
12.5 3.2
12.8 2.8
13.2 3.1
13.6 3
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
35.6 28.3
36.9 28.9
38.1 29.3
39.8 30
41.5 30.6
43.2 31.3
45 32
46.7 32.5
48.6 33.2
50.4 33.8
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
41.6 2.9
42.6 2.5
43.9 3
45.3 3.3
46.8 3.3
48.4 3.4
50.1 3.4
51.8 3.4
53.5 3.4
55.3 3.2
Personal Income (Billions $)
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
170.7 0.4
173.5 1.6
177.2 2.1
180 1.6
182.6 1.4
185.1 1.3
187.1 1.1
188.7 0.8
190.3 0.9
191.8 0.8
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
4 4.2
4.2 5.3
4.3 3.6
4.4 1.5
4.4 0.2
4.4 -0.4
4.4 -0.4
4.4 -0.3
4.4 -0.5
4.3 -0.4
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
166.7 0.3
169.3 1.6
172.8 2.1
175.6 1.6
178.2 1.5
180.7 1.4
182.7 1.1
184.3 0.9
185.9 0.9
187.5 0.8
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
6.4 -2.6
6.7 4.8
7.2 7.3
7.5 4.4
7.7 2
7.9 2.6
8.1 2.3
8.2 2
8.3 0.7
8.3 0.8
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
22.3 0
22.8 2.4
23.4 2.7
23.8 1.4
24 0.9
24 0.1
23.9 -0.2
23.9 0.1
24 0.2
24 0.1
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
3.3 17.2 1.8
3.4 17.5 1.9
3.5 17.9 2
3.6 18 2
3.7 18.1 2.1
3.7 18 2.1
3.7 17.9 2.2
3.7 17.8 2.2
3.8 17.8 2.2
3.8 17.8 2.2
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
3.1 1.7
3.2 2.1
3.3 2.4
3.3 1.4
3.3 1.1
3.4 1.2
3.4 1.4
3.5 0.9
3.5 0.9
3.5 0.5
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
7.3 0.6
7.5 2.5
7.6 0.7
7.6 0
7.6 0.2
7.6 0.1
7.6 0
7.6 -0.3
7.6 0
7.5 -0.2
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
19.5 6.2
20.2 3.7
21.3 5.4
22.4 5.1
23.6 5.4
24.9 5.6
26.1 4.5
26.9 3.2
27.8 3.5
28.8 3.4
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
20.4 2
20.8 1.9
21 0.9
21.3 1.3
21.7 1.7
22.2 2.3
22.5 1.7
22.9 1.6
23.2 1.4
23.6 1.6
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
16 -0.5
16.2 1.3
16.5 1.6
16.5 0.1
16.4 -0.3
16.4 -0.3
16.3 -0.4
16.2 -0.5
16.2 -0.2
16.1 -0.7
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
10.2 1
10.3 0.4
10.3 0.3
10.4 0.6
10.4 0.5
10.4 0.2
10.4 0.1
10.4 -0.1
10.4 0
10.4 0
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
1.7 -8.1
1.7 -1.4
1.7 -0.7
1.7 -0.3
1.7 0.1
1.7 0.4
1.7 0.5
1.7 0.6
1.7 0.7
1.9 7.5
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
59.7 -1.3
59.8 0.3
60.5 1.2
61.2 1.1
61.8 1
62.2 0.7
62.6 0.7
62.9 0.5
63.2 0.4
63.3 0.2
11241.8
11577.4
11902.5
12255.5
12607.4
12973
13303.1
13624.7
13970.7
14314.9
366 0.7
369.2 0.9
373.2 1.1
377.6 1.2
381.9 1.1
386.2 1.1
390.4 1.1
394.6 1.1
398.9 1.1
403.2 1.1
190.9 -2.2
187 -2.1
187.1 0.1
187.8 0.4
189.1 0.7
190.3 0.6
191.3 0.5
192.2 0.5
193.3 0.6
194.9 0.8
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
8.3
7.2
6.2
5.6
5.5
5.2
4.9
4.7
4.5
4.2
1560 1275 285
2105 1811 293
2420 1983 437
2483 1949 534
2550 1910 641
2627 1901 726
2629 1858 771
2602 1815 787
2600 1785 815
2582 1747 835
Continued
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
123
T a l l aha s s ee
Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
21.3 4.8 11.1 10.2
22.3 4.6 11.6 10.7
23.3 4.4 12 11.2
24.3 4.2 12.5 11.8
25.3 4.4 13 12.3
26.4 4.4 13.6 12.9
27.6 4.4 14.1 13.5
28.8 4.2 14.7 14
30 4.2 15.4 14.6
31.2 4.2 16 15.2
14 3
14.4 2.8
14.8 2.5
15.1 2.3
15.5 2.4
15.9 2.5
16.3 2.5
16.7 2.3
17.1 2.3
17.5 2.3
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
52.3 34.5
54.1 35
55.9 35.5
57.7 36
59.5 36.5
61.5 37
63.6 37.6
65.6 38
67.7 38.5
69.8 39
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
57.1 3.3
59 3.3
60.9 3.2
62.8 3.2
64.9 3.3
67.1 3.4
69.4 3.4
71.7 3.4
74.2 3.4
76.7 3.4
Personal Income (Billions $)
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
193.4 0.8
195.4 1
197.1 0.9
198.3 0.6
199.9 0.8
201.6 0.8
203.1 0.8
204.7 0.8
206.4 0.8
208.1 0.8
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
4.3 -1.4
4.2 -2.1
4.1 -2.3
4 -1.9
4 -1.5
3.9 -1.2
3.9 -1
3.8 -1.1
3.8 -0.8
3.8 -0.7
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
189.2 0.9
191.3 1.1
193 0.9
194.3 0.7
196 0.9
197.7 0.9
199.3 0.8
200.9 0.8
202.6 0.9
204.3 0.8
8.5 1.4
8.6 1.6
8.7 1.5
8.8 1.1
8.9 1.2
9.1 1.9
9.2 1.4
9.3 1
9.4 0.9
9.5 1.1
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
24.1 0.2
24.3 0.9
24.5 0.8
24.6 0.6
24.7 0.6
24.9 0.5
25 0.5
25.1 0.6
25.2 0.5
25.3 0.2
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
3.9 17.8 2.2
4 17.8 2.3
4 17.9 2.3
4.1 17.9 2.4
4.1 18 2.4
4.2 18 2.5
4.2 18.1 2.5
4.3 18.1 2.5
4.3 18.2 2.5
4.3 18.2 2.6
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
3.5 0.7
3.6 0.9
3.6 0.9
3.6 0.6
3.6 0.7
3.7 1
3.7 1.1
3.8 1.3
3.8 1.5
3.9 1.2
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
7.5 -0.2
7.6 0.4
7.6 0.4
7.6 0.4
7.7 0.6
7.7 0.6
7.8 0.6
7.8 0.7
7.9 0.7
7.9 0.7
30 4.3
31.2 4
32.2 3.1
32.9 2.1
33.8 2.8
34.8 3
35.7 2.5
36.6 2.6
37.7 3
38.8 2.8
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
23.8 0.8
24 0.8
24.1 0.7
24.3 0.7
24.4 0.6
24.6 0.6
24.8 0.7
24.9 0.7
25.1 0.8
25.3 0.7
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
16.1 -0.3
16.1 0.1
16 -0.1
16 -0.2
16 -0.1
16 0.1
16 0.2
16.1 0.2
16.1 0.3
16.1 0
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
10.5 0.7
10.6 1
10.7 0.8
10.8 0.8
10.9 0.9
10.9 0.5
11 0.3
11 0.3
11 0.3
11.1 0.3
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
1.8 -4.5
1.8 0.7
1.8 0.5
1.8 0.5
1.8 0.6
1.8 0.6
1.9 0.6
1.9 0.6
1.9 0.6
2 7.3
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
63.4 0.2
63.6 0.2
63.7 0.3
63.8 0.2
64 0.3
64.1 0.2
64.3 0.2
64.3 0.1
64.4 0.1
64.4 0
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
14670.6
15063.1
15444.2
15814.2
16217.8
16611.2
16983.8
17357.7
17744.9
18158.5
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
407.5 1.1
411.8 1.1
416.3 1.1
420.7 1.1
425.1 1.1
429.6 1.1
434.1 1
438.6 1
443.1 1
447.5 1
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
196.1 0.6
197.2 0.6
198.4 0.6
199.5 0.6
200.8 0.6
202.5 0.8
204.2 0.8
205.9 0.9
207.7 0.8
209.4 0.8
4
4
3.9
3.9
4
4
4
4
4
4.1
2532 1680 852
2528 1656 873
2513 1628 885
2487 1615 872
2480 1616 864
2459 1595 864
2381 1521 860
2284 1428 855
2205 1362 843
2173 1338 835
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
124
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
Continued
T a l l aha s s ee
Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
32.6 4.2 16.7 15.9
34 4.4 17.5 16.5
35.4 4.1 18.2 17.2
36.8 4 18.9 17.9
38.2 3.9 19.6 18.6
39.7 3.9 20.3 19.4
41.2 3.8 21.1 20.1
42.7 3.7 21.9 20.9
44.2 3.6 22.6 21.6
45.9 3.7 23.5 22.4
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
17.9 2.3
18.3 2.4
18.7 2.2
19.1 2
19.4 1.9
19.8 1.9
20.2 1.8
20.5 1.7
20.8 1.6
21.2 1.6
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
72.1 39.6
74.6 40.1
76.9 40.6
79.3 41.1
81.6 41.5
84 41.9
86.5 42.3
88.9 42.6
91.3 43
93.9 43.3
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
79.4 3.5
82.1 3.5
84.9 3.4
87.7 3.3
90.5 3.2
93.4 3.2
96.4 3.2
99.5 3.2
102.7 3.2
106 3.3
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
209.9 0.9
212.3 1.1
213.9 0.8
215 0.5
216 0.4
217.1 0.5
218.2 0.5
218.9 0.3
219.8 0.4
220.6 0.4
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
3.7 -0.5
3.7 -0.6
3.7 -0.7
3.7 -0.7
3.6 -0.8
3.6 -0.7
3.6 -0.6
3.6 -0.5
3.6 -0.1
3.6 0.1
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
206.2 0.9
208.5 1.1
210.2 0.8
211.4 0.5
212.3 0.5
213.5 0.6
214.6 0.5
215.4 0.4
216.2 0.4
217 0.4
9.7 1.8
9.8 1.9
10 1.8
10.1 0.9
10.2 0.7
10.3 0.8
10.4 1
10.4 0.8
10.5 0.8
10.6 0.3
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
25.4 0.3
25.4 0.2
25.5 0.2
25.5 0.1
25.5 0
25.5 0.1
25.5 0.1
25.6 0.1
25.6 0.1
25.6 0
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
4.4 18.2 2.6
4.3 18.3 2.6
4.3 18.3 2.6
4.3 18.4 2.6
4.3 18.4 2.5
4.3 18.4 2.5
4.2 18.5 2.5
4.2 18.5 2.5
4.2 18.6 2.5
4.2 18.6 2.5
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
3.9 1.8
4 2.3
4.1 1.7
4.2 1
4.2 0.9
4.2 1.1
4.3 1.3
4.3 1.3
4.4 1.2
4.4 0.6
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
8 0.9
8.1 0.9
8.1 0.8
8.2 0.6
8.2 0.6
8.3 0.7
8.3 0.5
8.4 0.5
8.4 0.4
8.4 -0.1
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
40.1 3.3
41.6 3.9
42.7 2.6
43.5 1.9
44.2 1.7
45.1 2
45.9 1.9
46.6 1.3
47.2 1.3
48 1.7
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
25.5 0.8
25.8 1
25.9 0.7
26 0.4
26.1 0.2
26.2 0.3
26.3 0.3
26.4 0.4
26.4 0.3
26.5 0.3
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
16.2 0.4
16.3 0.5
16.3 0.4
16.4 0.2
16.4 0.3
16.4 0.2
16.5 0.2
16.5 0
16.5 0.2
16.5 -0.4
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
11.1 0.2
11.1 0.2
11.1 0.3
11.2 0.2
11.2 0.1
11.2 0.2
11.2 0
11.2 -0.2
11.2 -0.2
11.1 -0.4
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
1.9 -5.1
1.9 0.6
1.9 0.6
1.9 0.6
2 0.6
2 0.6
2 0.6
2 0.5
2 0.5
2.1 5.9
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
64.5 0.1
64.5 0
64.5 0
64.4 -0.1
64.4 -0.1
64.3 -0.1
64.2 -0.1
64.1 -0.2
64 -0.2
63.9 -0.2
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
18594.1
19043.6
19478.8
19901.9
20322.6
20774.2
21246.2
21704.2
22198.2
22736.9
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
451.7 0.9
456 0.9
460.2 0.9
464.3 0.9
468.4 0.9
472.4 0.9
476.5 0.9
480.5 0.8
484.5 0.8
488.5 0.8
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
211.1 0.8
212.8 0.8
214.5 0.8
216.1 0.8
217.7 0.8
219.3 0.7
220.9 0.7
222.5 0.7
224.1 0.7
225.6 0.7
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.3
4.3
2120 1292 828
2033 1205 827
1967 1153 814
1930 1127 803
1889 1105 784
1833 1078 755
1761 1035 725
1696 990 706
1649 954 695
1600 919 682
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
125
T ampa – St . P eter s burg – C l ear w ater
P r o fi l e s The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is comprised of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas counties. Located centrally on the west coast of Florida, this region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge Docks, Ybor City, Bush Gardens, the University of South Florida, and the University of Tampa. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Devil Rays also call this region home. Quick Facts:
• MSA population estimate of 2,747,272 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hernando County population estimate of 171,233 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hillsborough County population estimate of 1,195,317 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)
• Pasco County population estimate of 471,709 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Pinellas County population estimate of 909,013 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)
• A civilian labor force of 1,310,966 in April 2010 for the entire region (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 11.9% as of April 2010, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 156,311 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:
• Hillsborough County School District – 25,487 employees • Verizon Communications – 14,000 employees • MacDill Air Force Base – 12,000 employees
• University of South Florida – 11,607 employees • Hillsborough County Government – 10,886 employees
• Tampa International Airport – 7,760 employees • James A Haley Veterans Hospital – 5,900 employees • St. Joseph’s Hospital – 5,242 employees 126
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
• JP Morgan Chase – 5,237 employees
• Verizon Information Technologies – 5,000 employees Source: Committee of One Hundred Research
Out l o o k Summarie s The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to be 4.5 percent on average each year, and the per capita income level will average 31.1 annually. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.9 percent, one of the highest in the state. The average annual wage level will be 47.7. Population growth will average 0.9 percent, and Tampa is forecasted to have the second highest Gross Metro Product, averaging a level of 93,122.25 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to be 1.3 percent annually. The unemployment rate is expected to average 10.7 percent. The fastest growing sector in the Tampa area is Professional and Business Services, growing 2.6 percent each year. The Manufacturing and Education and Health Services sectors follow with average annual growth rates of 2.2 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively. The Federal Government sector is the only sector that will experience a decline, with an annual growth rate of -1.3 percent.
M etr o Ne w s Summarie s RiverHawk lands $70 million military contract
• Tampa-based RiverHawk Fast Sea Frames, LLC secured a $70.2 million contract with the Iraqi military for two offshore support vessels for the Iraqi Navy. • The company will detail, design, and construct the vessels. • Work, which will be done at the company’s Houma, Louisiana facility, is expected to be completed by December of next year.
Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, March 8, 2010
T ampa – St . P eter s burg – C l ear w ater
Penny tax to support light rail will go on November ballot
• Hillsborough County Board of County Commissioners voted in favor of adding a 1-cent transportation tax to the November ballot.
• The sales tax would fund both transit and nontransit projects, including light rail, roadways, bus service expansion, and intersections, with 75% of the revenue going to transit and 25% going to other projects.
Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, May 14, 2010
Tampa Bay rallies around FIFA bid
• Tampa was one of 18 U.S. cities that the USA Bid Committee submitted to host the 2018 or 2022 Fédération Internationale de Football Association World Cup soccer games.
St. Joseph’s Women’s Hospital launches $75 million expansion
• St. Joseph’s Women’s Hospital broke ground on a $75 million, five-story, 125,000-square-foot expansion. The project will include a new 64-bed neonatal intensive care unit (NICU), services including obstetrics, gynecology, and surgery, and the Hinks and Elaine Shimberg Breast Center. • The NICU will provide 24 additional private suites for women’s care patients, intended to improve safety and enhance patients’ experiences. The Breast Center is expected to be a leader in breast imaging procedures with the utilization of new technology.
Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, May 19, 2010
• Australia, England, and Russia also submitted bids to FIFA.
• The submissions initiated a seven-month review process that involves site visits from FIFA committee members to the bidding nations. The committee will select the host country on December 2nd.
Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, May 14, 2010
St. Petersburg ranked as top arts destination
• AmericanStyle magazine ranked St. Petersburg the nation’s top arts destination. This is the ninth year in a row that the city has been recognized for its arts offerings, but it is the first year the city has been in the top 10. • St. Petersburg has six world-class museums, intimate arts venues, and a downtown gallery district, and is in the process of opening several new venues.
• The city expects the ranking to further strengthen St. Petersburg’s arts reputation locally, nationally, and internationally, increasing opportunities for tourism.
Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, May 17, 2010 Institute for Economic Competitiveness
127
T ampa – St . P eter s burg – C l ear w ater Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0
0.2
Florida & Tampa Unemployment Rate (percent)
14.0% 12.0%
0.6
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
Tampa Payroll Employment 1600.0
(Thousands)
1500.0
1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 FL Unemployment Rate Tampa Unemployment Rate
1000.0
Tampa Real Gross Metro Product 250000.0
(Millions 2000 $)
Tampa Real Personal Income 8.0%
(percent change year ago)
4.0%
150000.0
2.0% 0.0%
100000.0 50000.0
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Tampa Payroll Employment
6.0%
200000.0
128
0.8
1400.0
10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%
0.4
-2.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Gross Metro Product Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
-4.0%
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Personal Income
T ampa – St . P eter s burg – C l ear w ater
Quarterly Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
103.6 4.5 52 51.6 83.7 3 37.4 30.2 45.9 3.3
104.8 4.8 52.5 52.3 84.4 3.6 37.8 30.4 46.3 3.3
106 5.3 53.1 53 85 3.9 38.1 30.6 46.7 3.4
106.9 4.4 53.6 53.4 85.3 2.8 38.4 30.6 47 3.1
108.1 4.3 54.2 53.9 85.9 2.6 38.8 30.8 47.3 2.9
109.5 4.5 54.9 54.6 86.6 2.7 39.2 31 47.5 2.6
110.9 4.6 55.7 55.3 87.4 2.8 39.6 31.2 47.9 2.5
112.4 5.2 56.4 56.1 88.2 3.3 40 31.4 48.2 2.5
113.9 5.3 57.1 56.8 88.9 3.5 40.4 31.6 48.5 2.6
115.3 5.3 58 57.4 89.6 3.4 40.8 31.7 48.8 2.7
116.6 5.1 58.8 57.8 90.1 3.1 41.2 31.8 49.3 2.9
118.2 5.1 59.7 58.5 90.9 3.1 41.6 32 49.6 3.1
119.7 5.1 60.5 59.2 91.7 3.1 42 32.1 50 3.2
121.2 5.1 61.3 59.9 92.4 3.2 42.3 32.3 50.4 3.2
1135 1.3 61.8 4.5 1073.2 1.1 52.4 0.5 208.4 0.6 46.1 136.2 26.1 27.2 4.3 90.9 0.7 202.2 3.9 180.2 2.2 114.1 -0.8 44.3 1 21.7 -5.6 131.9 -0.7
1142.9 1.9 62.6 4.6 1080.3 1.8 53.1 2.9 210 1.3 46.6 137.2 26.4 27.4 3.7 91.8 2.6 204.7 4.1 181.3 2.5 114 -0.6 44.4 0.9 21.6 -2.5 132 -0.1
1150.9 2.4 63.5 5.3 1087.4 2.2 54.1 5.4 211.7 2.2 47.1 138.1 26.8 27.6 3 92.5 3.2 206.3 3.7 182.1 2.7 114.7 0.2 44.4 0.5 21.6 -1.7 132.4 0.3
1158.6 2.7 64.3 5.3 1094.3 2.5 55.4 7.3 213.5 2.9 47.5 138.9 27.1 27.7 2.2 92.9 3.1 207.1 3.4 183.4 2.6 115.7 1.1 44.4 0.3 21.5 -1.2 132.9 0.8
1166.7 2.8 65 5.2 1101.7 2.7 56.6 8.1 215 3.2 47.9 139.7 27.4 27.8 2 93.4 2.8 208.5 3.1 184.4 2.3 116.6 2.2 44.5 0.3 21.5 -0.9 133.4 1.2
1175 2.8 65.6 4.8 1109.3 2.7 58 9.1 216.8 3.2 48.3 140.4 27.6 27.9 1.8 93.9 2.3 210.1 2.6 185.3 2.2 117.5 3.1 44.5 0.3 21.4 -0.8 134 1.5
1182.7 2.8 66.2 4.3 1116.5 2.7 59.4 9.8 218.3 3.1 48.7 141 27.9 28.1 1.7 94.1 1.8 212 2.7 185.8 2 118.2 3.1 44.6 0.3 21.4 -0.7 134.6 1.7
1190.4 2.7 66.8 3.9 1123.6 2.7 61 10.1 219.7 2.9 49 141.9 28 28.2 1.9 94.2 1.4 213.7 3.2 186.8 1.9 118.8 2.7 44.5 0.3 21.4 -0.6 135.3 1.8
1197.2 2.6 67.2 3.4 1130.1 2.6 62.4 10.1 220.9 2.7 49.3 142.6 28.2 28.3 1.8 94.5 1.2 215.6 3.4 187.6 1.7 119.1 2.2 44.5 0.2 21.4 -0.5 135.9 1.8
1203.3 2.4 67.5 2.8 1135.8 2.4 63.6 9.7 221.6 2.2 49.5 143.1 28.4 28.3 1.6 94.7 0.9 217.5 3.5 188.1 1.5 119.5 1.7 44.6 0.1 21.4 -0.4 136.4 1.8
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
1120.2 -0.7 59.1 -1.9 1061.1 -0.7 52.1 -11 207.2 -0.5 44.8 135.9 25.3 26.1 -5.1 90.2 -1.4 194.5 0.8 176.4 2.3 115 -2.2 43.9 -0.5 23 1.6 132.8 0.1
1121.2 0.1 59.9 2.6 1061.4 0 51.6 -9.1 207.3 1.2 44.7 136 25.3 26.4 -3 89.5 -1.7 196.6 2.6 176.9 1.3 114.7 -1.4 44 -0.1 22.2 -0.8 132.2 -0.5
1124.1 0.4 60.3 4.2 1063.8 0.2 51.3 -5.7 207.2 0.5 44.8 136 25.4 26.8 1.4 89.6 -1.8 198.9 2.9 177.4 1.5 114.5 -0.5 44.2 1.3 21.9 -2.2 132 -1.5
1128.5 0.5 61 4.1 1067.4 0.3 51.6 -3.4 207.4 0.1 45.4 135.9 25.7 27.1 4 90.1 -0.6 200.3 3.6 178.7 1.7 114.4 -0.5 44.3 1.2 21.8 -12.8 131.8 -1.5
89250.6 89728.9 2771.2 2775.8 0.7 0.7 1326.7 1325.3 1.7 0.9 13 12.9 7425 8430 5869 6216 1556 2214
90136 2780.2 0.7 1324.1 0.1 12.4 11382 7152 4229
90683 91478.9 92322.8 93177.4 94064.9 94940.9 95806.6 96455.9 97191.5 97927.7 98592.3 2785.1 2790.3 2796.2 2802.4 2808.8 2816.1 2823.9 2832.8 2842.5 2852.7 2863.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1322.6 1322.8 1324 1325.5 1328.4 1330.7 1334 1338.2 1342.2 1346.7 1351.8 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1 1.2 1.3 12 11.5 11 10.6 10.1 9.5 9.2 8.8 8.4 8.2 8 13631 15204 16196 17627 18676 19908 20481 20885 21704 22240 22345 8887 10644 12288 13350 14422 15592 16020 16319 17049 17434 17457 4744 4561 3909 4277 4254 4316 4461 4567 4655 4806 4889
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
129
T ampa – St . P eter s burg – C l ear w ater
Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
78.9 5 42.9 35.9
84.9 7.6 46 38.9
91.4 7.7 49.1 42.3
98.5 7.7 52.3 46.2
101.2 2.8 54 47.2
102.4 1.2 53.6 48.8
99.7 -2.7 51.1 48.6
102.9 3.2 51.8 51.1
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
74.8 2.9
78.5 4.9
82 4.6
86 4.9
86.1 0.1
84.3 -2.1
81.9 -2.9
83.2 1.6
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
31.2 29.6
32.8 30.3
34.6 31
36.6 32
37.3 31.7
37.5 30.9
36.2 29.8
37.2 30.1
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
37.2 4.1
38.5 3.5
39.8 3.3
41.5 4.3
42.9 3.4
44 2.7
44.5 1.1
45.7 2.8
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
1141.8 0.1
1183.3 3.6
1222.9 3.4
1248.4 2.1
1247.4 -0.1
1204.9 -3.4
1135.4 -5.8
1120.8 -1.3
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
76 -5
76.6 0.8
77.3 0.9
78.2 1.2
75.6 -3.3
71.2 -5.8
61.7 -13.4
58.9 -4.6
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
1065.8 0.5
1106.7 3.8
1145.6 3.5
1170.2 2.1
1171.8 0.1
1133.7 -3.3
1073.7 -5.3
1061.9 -1.1
72 3.5
79.1 9.8
88.3 11.6
93.9 6.3
87.3 -7
75.9 -13.1
60 -21
52.9 -11.9
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
221.2 -2.8
226.1 2.3
233.5 3.2
235.7 1
234.1 -0.7
226.5 -3.3
209.4 -7.5
207 -1.1
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
50.4 139.8 31
50.9 143.3 31.9
52.8 149 31.7
54 151 30.7
54.3 150.8 29
52.9 145.8 27.8
47.9 135.6 25.8
44.9 135.9 25.3
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
33.8 -3.6
32.1 -5
31.9 -0.6
31.8 -0.2
31.8 -0.1
30.3 -4.8
27.8 -8.2
26.3 -5.6
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
93.9 1.5
95.5 1.7
99.4 4.1
102.7 3.2
101.8 -0.9
97.1 -4.6
92.3 -4.9
90.4 -2
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
183.7 2.4
202.1 10
213.2 5.5
222 4.2
221.9 -0.1
207.6 -6.4
194.1 -6.5
194.4 0.2
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
148.5 3.2
153.2 3.1
155.6 1.6
159.3 2.4
166.5 4.5
170.9 2.7
172.3 0.8
176 2.1
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
118.7 0.4
122.3 3
126.3 3.2
128.5 1.7
128.8 0.2
124.8 -3.1
118.5 -5
114.9 -3.1
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
47.9 -0.2
49.2 2.7
49.4 0.5
47.1 -4.6
47.8 1.5
47.6 -0.5
44.2 -7
43.8 -0.9
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
19.5 2.8
19.9 2.2
20.8 4.3
21 1.2
21.1 0.5
21.9 3.9
22.6 3.1
23.1 2.5
126.6 -0.8
127.2 0.4
127.2 0
128.1 0.7
130.6 2
131.1 0.4
132.5 1.1
133.2 0.5
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
78975.9
83214.1
88917
92241
92043.3
90756
87787.6
89294.6
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
2530.6 1.7
2585.9 2.2
2643.5 2.2
2686.7 1.6
2713.1 1
2732.1 0.7
2749.7 0.6
2768.8 0.7
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
1226.3 0.3
1254.9 2.3
1248.3 -0.5
1272.9 2
1293.6 1.6
1307.5 1.1
1309.4 0.1
1325.6 1.2
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
130
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
5.3
4.5
3.9
3.4
4.2
6.6
11
13
27278 20002 7275
27278 22057 5221
32730 27577 5153
22907 19477 3429
11559 8530 3029
8926 5266 3660
6067 4131 1937
8431 5677 2754
Continued
T ampa – St . P eter s burg – C l ear w ater
Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
107.6 4.6 53.9 53.7
113.2 5.1 56.8 56.4
118.9 5.1 60.1 58.8
126.3 6.2 63.3 63
133.5 5.7 66.4 67.1
140.8 5.5 69.6 71.2
148.5 5.4 72.8 75.7
156.3 5.3 76 80.3
164.9 5.5 79.4 85.5
174 5.5 82.9 91.1
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
85.7 3
88.5 3.3
91.3 3.1
95.1 4.2
98.6 3.7
102 3.5
105.5 3.4
108.8 3.2
112.7 3.5
116.7 3.6
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
38.6 30.7
40.2 31.5
41.8 32.1
43.7 32.9
45.4 33.5
47.1 34.1
48.8 34.7
50.5 35.2
52.4 35.8
54.4 36.5
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
47.1 3
48.3 2.6
49.8 3.1
51.5 3.3
53.2 3.4
55 3.3
56.8 3.3
58.7 3.3
60.7 3.4
62.6 3.2
Personal Income (Billions $)
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
1132.6 1.1
1162.8 2.7
1193.4 2.6
1216.7 2
1235.6 1.6
1254.1 1.5
1270 1.3
1283.6 1.1
1297.5 1.1
1311.4 1.1
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
61.4 4.4
64.6 5.2
66.9 3.6
67.8 1.3
67.8 0
67.3 -0.7
66.8 -0.7
66.4 -0.6
65.9 -0.8
65.5 -0.7
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
1071.2 0.9
1098.2 2.5
1126.5 2.6
1148.9 2
1167.8 1.6
1186.8 1.6
1203.1 1.4
1217.2 1.2
1231.6 1.2
1245.9 1.2
52.1 -1.5
56 7.5
61.6 9.9
65.6 6.5
68 3.7
70.7 3.9
73.2 3.6
75.6 3.3
77.2 2.1
78.9 2.2
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
208.3 0.6
214.3 2.9
220.1 2.7
223.8 1.7
226.9 1.4
228.3 0.6
229.3 0.4
230.6 0.6
231.8 0.5
232.8 0.4
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
45.7 136.3 25.9
47.7 139.3 27.2
49.1 142.2 28.1
50.2 144.1 28.8
51.1 145.1 29.5
51.8 144.9 30.2
52.4 144.5 30.8
53.1 144.5 31.2
53.8 144.9 31.3
54.6 145.2 31.2
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
27.1 3.4
27.7 2.2
28.2 1.7
28.4 0.8
28.7 1
29.2 1.4
29.7 1.8
30.1 1.5
30.5 1.3
30.7 0.7
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
90.6 0.2
93.2 2.9
94.4 1.3
94.8 0.5
95.4 0.6
96 0.6
96.5 0.5
96.8 0.3
97.3 0.6
97.6 0.3
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
201.5 3.7
208 3.2
214.7 3.2
221.6 3.2
227.5 2.7
234.1 2.9
239.9 2.5
244.4 1.9
249.5 2.1
254.2 1.9
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
179.4 1.9
183.8 2.4
187.1 1.8
190.5 1.8
194.2 1.9
199.2 2.6
202.9 1.9
206.3 1.7
210 1.8
213.8 1.8
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
114.2 -0.6
116.1 1.7
118.9 2.4
120.2 1
120.7 0.4
121.2 0.4
121.6 0.3
121.7 0.1
122.1 0.4
122 -0.1
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
44.3 1.1
44.5 0.4
44.6 0.2
44.9 0.7
45.2 0.7
45.4 0.5
45.6 0.5
45.7 0.2
45.8 0.2
45.9 0.2
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
21.8 -6
21.5 -1.2
21.4 -0.5
21.4 -0.1
21.4 0.3
21.6 0.6
21.7 0.7
21.9 0.8
22.1 0.8
23.6 7
131.9 -1
133.2 0.9
135.5 1.8
137.7 1.6
139.7 1.5
141.3 1.1
142.8 1.1
144.1 0.9
145.4 0.9
146.3 0.6
91155.1
94497.4
97541.9
100852
104088
107460
110664
113917
117343
120729
2788 0.7
2812.8 0.9
2847.8 1.2
2892.2 1.6
2941 1.7
2991 1.7
3043.1 1.7
3095.7 1.7
3145.4 1.6
3194.8 1.6
1323.4 -0.2
1329.6 0.5
1344.7 1.1
1362.3 1.3
1384.6 1.6
1408.3 1.7
1431.4 1.6
1454.6 1.6
1477.8 1.6
1498.3 1.4
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
11.7
9.8
8.4
7.4
6.9
6.3
5.8
5.4
5.1
4.7
14103 9743 4361
19173 14846 4327
21794 17065 4729
22493 17487 5006
22920 17633 5287
24214 18358 5856
25207 18983 6225
25652 19196 6456
26051 19208 6843
26351 19286 7065
Continued
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
131
T ampa – St . P eter s burg – C l ear w ater
Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
183 5.2 86.4 96.6
192.1 5 90.3 101.8
201.3 4.8 94.3 107.1
210.8 4.7 98.3 112.5
220.9 4.8 102.6 118.3
231.6 4.9 107.3 124.4
242.9 4.9 112.1 130.8
254.3 4.7 117 137.2
266.1 4.7 122.4 143.7
278.4 4.6 127.9 150.5
120.5 3.3
124.4 3.2
128 2.9
131.6 2.8
135.3 2.9
139.3 3
143.5 3
147.5 2.8
151.5 2.7
155.6 2.7
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
56.4 37.2
58.3 37.8
60.2 38.3
62.1 38.8
64.1 39.3
66.3 39.9
68.5 40.5
70.7 41
72.9 41.5
75.2 42
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
64.7 3.3
66.8 3.3
69 3.3
71.3 3.3
73.7 3.4
76.2 3.5
78.9 3.5
81.6 3.5
84.5 3.5
87.4 3.5
Personal Income (Billions $)
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
1323.9 1
1340.4 1.2
1355.2 1.1
1367.4 0.9
1381.2 1
1395.4 1
1409 1
1422.6 1
1437.2 1
1452 1
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
64.4 -1.7
63 -2
61.6 -2.2
60.4 -2
59.4 -1.7
58.6 -1.5
57.8 -1.4
56.9 -1.4
56.3 -1.2
55.7 -1
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
1259.6 1.1
1277.3 1.4
1293.5 1.3
1307 1
1321.8 1.1
1336.8 1.1
1351.2 1.1
1365.7 1.1
1380.9 1.1
1396.3 1.1
81.1 2.7
83.4 2.9
85.9 2.9
88 2.5
90.2 2.6
92.8 2.9
95.2 2.5
97.2 2.1
99.2 2.1
101.4 2.3
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
234.4 0.7
237.5 1.4
240.4 1.2
242.9 1
245.2 0.9
247.1 0.8
249.3 0.9
251.4 0.9
253.4 0.8
254.8 0.5
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
55.7 145.4 31.6
57 146.3 32.4
58.3 147.2 33
59.3 148.1 33.6
60.2 148.9 34.2
61 149.6 34.7
61.8 150.5 35
62.6 151.6 35.2
63.4 152.3 35.5
64.2 152.8 35.5
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
31 1
31.5 1.4
31.9 1.4
32.3 1.1
32.7 1.2
33.2 1.6
33.7 1.7
34.4 1.9
35.1 2.1
35.7 1.8
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
98.1 0.4
99.1 1
100.1 1
101.1 1
102.4 1.3
103.8 1.3
105.1 1.3
106.6 1.4
108 1.4
109.5 1.4
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
260.2 2.4
266.2 2.3
271 1.8
274.3 1.2
278.6 1.5
282.9 1.6
286.4 1.2
290 1.3
294.1 1.4
298 1.3
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
216.2 1.1
218.4 1
220.7 1.1
222.9 1
224.9 0.9
226.9 0.9
229.1 0.9
231.4 1
233.8 1
236 1
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
122.2 0.2
123 0.6
123.6 0.5
124 0.3
124.5 0.4
125.2 0.6
126.1 0.8
127.1 0.8
128.2 0.9
128.9 0.5
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
46.3 0.9
46.8 1.2
47.3 1
47.8 1
48.3 1.1
48.7 0.8
49 0.5
49.2 0.5
49.5 0.5
49.7 0.6
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
22.8 -3.6
23 1.1
23.2 0.8
23.4 0.8
23.6 0.8
23.8 0.8
23.9 0.8
24.1 0.8
24.3 0.8
26.1 7.5
147.3 0.7
148.3 0.7
149.4 0.7
150.3 0.6
151.4 0.7
152.5 0.7
153.4 0.6
154.4 0.6
155.3 0.6
156.1 0.5
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
124144
127926
131719
135529
139569
143501
147315
151156
155098
159330
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
3243.9 1.5
3293.3 1.5
3343.2 1.5
3393.5 1.5
3444.2 1.5
3495.2 1.5
3546.7 1.5
3598.7 1.5
3650.9 1.5
3703.2 1.4
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
1517.3 1.3
1536.1 1.2
1555.2 1.2
1574.8 1.3
1595.6 1.3
1619.3 1.5
1644.1 1.5
1669.4 1.5
1695 1.5
1720.8 1.5
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
132
4.5
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.4
4.4
26204 19135 7069
26695 19421 7274
27021 19699 7322
27272 20057 7215
27723 20588 7135
27962 20858 7104
27605 20520 7085
27029 19985 7043
26630 19695 6935
26758 19883 6874
Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010
Continued
T ampa – St . P eter s burg – C l ear w ater
Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
July 2010 Forecast
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
291.3 4.6 133.8 157.5
305.1 4.7 140.1 165
319.1 4.6 146.4 172.7
333.2 4.4 152.5 180.8
347.6 4.3 158.5 189.1
362.9 4.4 165.1 197.9
378.4 4.3 171.9 206.5
394.3 4.2 178.7 215.5
410.6 4.1 185.8 224.7
427.5 4.1 193.3 234.2
Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago
159.8 2.7
164.3 2.8
168.6 2.6
172.7 2.5
176.8 2.4
181 2.4
185.1 2.3
189.2 2.2
193.2 2.1
197.2 2.1
Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)
77.6 42.6
80.1 43.1
82.6 43.7
85.1 44.1
87.6 44.6
90.3 45
92.9 45.5
95.6 45.9
98.2 46.2
101 46.6
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
90.5 3.5
93.7 3.5
96.9 3.5
100.2 3.4
103.5 3.3
107 3.4
110.7 3.4
114.4 3.4
118.2 3.3
122.3 3.4
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
1467 1
1484.7 1.2
1499.2 1
1510.4 0.7
1520.3 0.7
1531.3 0.7
1541.8 0.7
1551.3 0.6
1561.3 0.6
1570.1 0.6
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
55.2 -0.8
54.8 -0.9
54.2 -1.1
53.6 -1
53 -1.1
52.5 -1
52 -0.9
51.6 -0.8
51.3 -0.5
51.2 -0.2
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
1411.7 1.1
1429.9 1.3
1445.1 1.1
1456.7 0.8
1467.2 0.7
1478.9 0.8
1489.9 0.7
1499.7 0.7
1510 0.7
1518.9 0.6
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
104.5 3
107.7 3.1
110.8 3
113.2 2.1
115.3 1.9
117.7 2
120.2 2.2
122.6 2
125.1 2
127.1 1.6
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
256.1 0.5
257.1 0.4
258.2 0.4
258.8 0.2
259.2 0.2
259.8 0.2
260.2 0.2
260.7 0.2
261.3 0.2
261.6 0.1
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
64.6 153.7 35.5
64.6 154.7 35.4
64.6 155.8 35.4
64.5 156.6 35.3
64.3 157.3 35.1
64.2 158.1 34.9
63.9 159 34.7
63.7 160 34.4
63.5 161 34.1
63.5 161.6 33.7
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
36.6 2.4
37.7 3
38.6 2.4
39.2 1.7
39.8 1.5
40.5 1.7
41.3 2
42.2 2
43 1.9
43.5 1.3
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
111.3 1.6
113.1 1.6
114.7 1.5
116.2 1.3
117.7 1.3
119.3 1.4
120.8 1.2
122.2 1.2
123.6 1.1
124.3 0.6
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
302.9 1.6
308.3 1.8
312 1.2
314.7 0.9
317.1 0.8
319.8 0.9
322.4 0.8
324 0.5
325.6 0.5
327.3 0.5
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
238.6 1.1
241.6 1.3
243.9 0.9
245.6 0.7
246.9 0.5
248.5 0.6
249.8 0.5
251.4 0.6
252.9 0.6
254.3 0.5
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
130.2 1
131.6 1.1
132.9 1
134 0.8
135.2 0.9
136.3 0.8
137.3 0.8
138.1 0.6
139.3 0.8
139.6 0.2
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
49.9 0.4
50.2 0.4
50.4 0.5
50.6 0.5
50.8 0.4
51.1 0.5
51.2 0.2
51.3 0.2
51.5 0.3
51.5 0.1
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
24.9 -4.6
25.1 0.8
25.3 0.8
25.5 0.8
25.7 0.8
25.9 0.8
26.1 0.8
26.3 0.8
26.5 0.7
28.1 6
156.9 0.5
157.6 0.5
158.3 0.4
158.9 0.4
159.5 0.4
160 0.3
160.5 0.3
160.9 0.2
161.3 0.3
161.6 0.2
Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)
163769
168283
172846
177410
182000
186864
191951
197033
202497
208284
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
3755.6 1.4
3808.2 1.4
3860.9 1.4
3913.6 1.4
3966.5 1.4
4019.5 1.3
4072.7 1.3
4126.1 1.3
4179.8 1.3
4233.9 1.3
Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago
1746.8 1.5
1772.9 1.5
1799.1 1.5
1825.4 1.5
1851.9 1.5
1878.6 1.4
1905.4 1.4
1932.4 1.4
1960 1.4
1986.5 1.4
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
4.4
4.4
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.6
4.6
26659 19841 6818
26198 19362 6836
26041 19280 6761
26212 19509 6703
26357 19763 6594
26323 19925 6399
26043 19843 6200
25766 19691 6075
25701 19701 6001
25598 19690 5908
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
133
In Appeciation
The UCF College of Business Administration would like to thank Alan C. Charron, ‘84, for his generous gift to the Institute for Economic Competitiveness. His support enables the Institute to publish this forecast and will help fund future activities and research. Charron graduated in 1984 with a degree in finance. He is president of Real Property Specialists, Inc., located in Orlando, Florida. Founded in 1992, Real Property Specialists, Inc., is a fullservice brokerage company that has built a reputation of providing highly personalized service while being responsive and flexible to its clients' individual needs. They offer a range of commercial real estate services in the Central Florida area including brokerage, appraisal, development, property management and tenant representation. Real Property Specialists, Inc., has set a new standard of excellence in client service by providing these key advantages over the competition:
Responsiveness. You work directly with a decision
maker who has the flexibility to immediately attend to your needs.
Consistency. We are a unified firm employing team-
members who are committed to the success of our clients. We pride ourselves on our ability to maintain a dedicated, professional staff that is able to build long-term, comfortable and prosperous relationships with our clients.
Accountability. At Real Property Specialists, our client is the real "Boss." We are accountable to no one other than the client. No company policy interferes with our ability to serve the individual needs of each client. Experience. The staff at Real Property Specialists is
highly qualified, with most associates having more than a decade of experience in the industry. Our personal portfolio of shopping centers gives us first-hand knowledge of what is important when leasing, managing or selling a property.
Appraisers • Brokers • Consultants 6700 Conroy-Windermere Road, Suite 230 | Orlando, FL 32835 407.291.9000 | www.realpropertyspecialists.com
Director, Institute for Economic Competitiveness. Ph.D., Pennsylvania State University 1996; M.A., Pennsylvania State University 1994; B.S., Allegheny College 1989.
Sea n M . S n ait h , P h . D .
We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness:
Sean Snaith, Ph.D., is the Director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness within the College of Business Administration at the University of Central Florida and is a widely recognized economist in the field of business and economic forecasting. As an award-winning forecaster, researcher, and professor, Snaith is always interested in the application of academic expertise to the solution of real world problems. Snaith has served as a consultant for a client list ranging from local and regional municipalities to multi-national corporations, including Compaq, Dell and IBM. He has held teaching positions at Pennsylvania State University, American University in Cairo, University of North Dakota and University of the Pacific. Snaith frequently appears in national and regional media and is sought after as a speaker. He has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, the New York Times, and the Chicago Tribune and has appeared on CNBC and Fox Business Channel. Known for his engaging presentations, one business editor wrote, “Snaith (has) an uncanny knack of making economics not only understandable but interesting.” Snaith is a member of several economic organizations and national economic forecasting panels including USA Today’s Survey of Top Economists, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, Bloomberg, Reuters and the Livingston Survey. In 2007 he was named California’s most accurate forecaster by the Western Blue Chip Consensus Forecast, besting UCLA, Wells Fargo and other esteemed forecasting groups. Snaith holds a B.S. in Economics from Allegheny College and an M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from Pennsylvania State University. Snaith was recently named by Bloomberg News as one of the nation’s most accurate forecasters and was one of just two academic economists making the list which was released in the December 2008 issue of Bloomberg Markets. For more information Sean Snaith, Director Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida P.O. Box 161400 Orlando, FL 32816 PH: 407.823.1451 FAX: 407.823.1454 E-MAIL: ssnaith@bus.ucf.edu www.iec.ucf.edu
U n i v e r s it y o f C e n t r al F l o r ida College of Business Administration Institute for Economic Competitiveness P. O . B o x 1 6 1 4 0 0 , O r l a n d o , F l o r i d a 3 2 8 1 6 PH 407.823.1453
FAX 407.823.1454
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