Florida & Metro Forecast July 2010

Page 1

Florida & Metro Forecast 2010-2040

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

Published July 2010


Message From D ea n T h o ma s L . K e o n

A b o ut U n i v e r s it y o f C e n t r al F l o r ida ( U C F ) T h e Un i ve r s i t y o f C e n t r a l Fl o r i d a i s a public, multi-campus, metropolitan r e s e a r c h u n i v e r s i t y, d e d i c a t e d t o serving its surrounding communities

It seems that the state of Florida somehow manages to make the national news on a regular basis. In the past few years, we’ve dealt with “hanging chads,” devastating hurricanes and a housing market collapse. Now, we are dealing with the fallout from the BP oil spill. Unfortunately, the spill is having a devastating effect on tourism throughout the state, not just the panhandle.

with their diverse and expanding populations, technological corridors, and international partners. The mission of the university is to offer high-quality undergraduate and graduate education, student development, and continuing education; to conduct research and creative activities; and to provide services that enhance the intellectual, cultural, environmental, and economic development of the metropolitan region, address national and international issues in key areas, establish UCF as a major presence, and contribute to the global c o m m u n i t y.

A b o ut t h e C o lle g e o f B u s i n e s s A dmi n i s t r ati o n The College of Business Administration a d v a n c e s t h e u n i v e r s i t y ’s m i s s i o n and goals in providing intellectual leadership through research, teaching, and service. The college is striving to enhance graduate programs, while maintaining the strong undergraduate base. The college delivers research and quality business education programs at the undergraduate, masters, doctoral, and executive levels to citizens of the state of Florida and to select clientele n a t i o n a l l y a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y.

Florida residents are resilient and will bounce back. We just have to convince tourists and meeting planners that we are open for business and our beaches are not littered with slick oil or permanently ruined. Our state depends on tourism and we need visitors to help us with our economic recovery. Those of us lucky enough to live in the Sunshine State can help as well. Not all tourists come from other states or countries. Why not enjoy a nice summer “staycation” as they call it, and spend the day or weekend at the beach? Your money will support the state economy and help your own budget as well. Floridians need to stick together and help each other. Why not show the rest of the country how strong we are and how successful we can be? It’s time we made the national news for some positive reasons!

n o e K . L s a m o h T Sincerely,

Thomas L. Keon Dean


Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

F lo r i da F o r e c a s t 2010 - 2040 July 2010 Report

Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Elaine Vogt, Administrative Assistant Erin Garlow, Researcher Laura Burkstrand, Researcher Cecilia Chirinos, Researcher Jessica Fears, Researcher Alexandra Betrone-Harpst, Researcher

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright Š 2010 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved. This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitiveness’ judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.


TABLE OF CONTENTS Florida Highlights and Summary................................. 5-10 Florida Forecast Tables.................................................. 11-25

Tab l e o f c o n te n t s

Florida Forecast Charts................................................ 27-35 Florida News Summaries....................................................36 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach...............38-45 Gainesville..........................................................................46-53 Jacksonville........................................................................54-61 Lakeland.............................................................................62-69 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach...................... 70-77 Naples-Marco Island...................................................... 78-85 Ocala....................................................................................86-93 Orlando-Kissimmee....................................................... 94-101 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville.............................. 102-109 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent....................................... 110-117 Tallahassee....................................................................... 118-125 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater......................... 126-133


F LO R I D A S U M M A R Y

H i g h li g ht s o f th e J u ly 2 010 F lo r i da F o r e c a s t 2 010 -2 013 • BP has successfully placed a cap – on Florida’s tourism recovery. • In the housing sector, a cautious convalescence continues. • The labor market remains a sore spot, despite small signs of improvement. Unemployment will remain stubbornly high and will not fall below 10% until the 2nd quarter of 2012. • Payroll employment in Florida will waffle in 2010, as temporary hiring for the 2010 Census muddies the payroll jobs outlook. • Payroll job growth year-over-year is expected to average 1.6% in 2011, 3.1% in 2012, and 3.0% in 2013. It will be 2014 before payrolls recover to their pre-recession levels. • 2010 will be another difficult year for the housing market, and a post-first time home buyer tax credit let down may give the impression of a double dip. However, it is a phenomenon we have seen before in the wake of the “cash for clunkers” program. • Unemployment rates could change as the economy transitions, once again, into a job growth phase in the second half of 2010. 2011 should mark the beginning of a long, slow, steady decline in unemployment. It could be 2022 before we see unemployment fall below 5% again. • The sectors forecasted to have the strongest growth during 2010-2013 are Professional and Business Services (4.8%), Trade, Transportation & Utilities (2.8%) Manufacturing (2.5%), and Education and Health Services (2.5%). • Florida’s housing construction sector bottomed out in 2009, reaching a level that was just 16% of the peak number of starts. Housing starts will climb even more slowly than expected over the next several years. In 2013, housing starts will recover to 2001 levels, rising gradually to 158,600 starts. • After two years of contracting, Real Gross State Product (GSP) will expand 2.9% in 2010 and 2.8% in 2011, accelerate to 3.9% in 2012, and then ease slightly to 3.6% in 2013. • Real personal income growth will begin to accelerate in 2010 to 2.8%. From 20112013, personal income growth will average 3.5%, and will peak at 3.7% in 2011. • After a stuttering first half of 2010, retail sales and sales tax receipts will accelerate in 2011 and 2012. Retail sales will grow at an average pace of 5.6% during 2011-2013.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

5


F l o rida Summary

Florida’s Economy

T w o if by s ea . . .

The arrival of British visitors in Florida is usually

a welcomed sight. The often sunburned Brits are

usually gracious, well-mannered visitors, and the

purchasing power of the British Pound made shopping, vacationing, and even buying real estate in Florida

a veritable bargain basement for them. In an earlier

forecast publication we suggested that as a result of the purchasing power of the Pound Sterling, Florida had

become a “Big Lots for Brits.” The spending and real

estate purchases of British visitors and investors helped fuel the expansion prior to the recession and continued to support the economy as the recession spread.

The latest arrival of a British visitor to Florida’s

shores is definitely not a welcome sight. The British oil that has spewed into the Gulf of Mexico has found its way to the shores of Florida’s panhandle and turned

the high season in Pensacola and neighboring counties

into a season of discontent. Hotels and restaurants that

would normally be full of 4th of July visitors were eerily

quiet, according to reports from visitors bureaus in the panhandle region.

Areas of Florida’s Gulf Coast that have not seen

any oil wash up on their beaches have been fighting

to break free of the association with areas that have. Tourists planning vacations have images of tar balls

and oil-coated pelicans to contemplate, and even the

chance that oil could impact their visit to Florida’s gulf beaches may be enough for potential visitors to scrap plans to come to Florida this year. 6

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

BP Successfully Places a Cap – On Florida’s Tourism Recovery When the Deep Horizon drilling platform exploded in the Gulf of Mexico, it not only tragically took the lives of eleven workers, it sealed the fates of thousands of other families whose economic livelihoods were also causalities of the blast that day. Millions of gallons of crude oil have flowed into the Gulf of Mexico since that fateful day in April.

In a rare bit of good news, a new cap placed on the well appears to be holding, though as of this writing it is still a tense wait to see if the mounting pressures will lead to a rupture in another area of the well, or in the sea floor surrounding it. The optimism surrounding the latest efforts to cap the well believe the fact that millions of gallons of oil are already in the Gulf and will likely continue to impact the Gulf Coast for months, if not years. The timing of the oil spill couldn’t be worse for Florida as the state emerges from what has essentially been a three year recession. Tourism in the state has been impacted during that time by the national, and indeed global, economic downturn. This was supposed to be the time that tourism was going to finally emerge from under the cloud of that recession and begin to recover. Unfortunately, the BP oil spill has put a cap on this recovery process and will delay it for a year or more. Employment in the Leisure and Hospitality sector in Florida will not begin to grow until 2012. In fact, the beleaguered Construction sector will begin to recover more quickly than Leisure & Hospitality.

BP may have successfully placed a cap on the well head at the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico, but not before the oil spill put a cap on Florida’s tourism recovery. Pressures are mounting underneath both of these caps— a welcome occurrence for the oil well, but not for the businesses and governments of Florida’s Gulf Coast.


F l o rida Summary

Florida’s Housing Market:

remains yet to be seen. The still significant inventory and ongoing weakness in fundamentals and credit conditions will continue to test this bottom for several more months.

A Cautious Convalescence Continues

Housing starts finally hit the bottom of a deep crevasse in 2009. It was a precipitous four year decline for housing starts. The low point for starts in 2009 was just a fraction of the peak level seen in 2005, but the new home construction sector has started a long rehabilitation process. Starts will increase slightly in 2010, before accelerating in 2011 and 2012. This growth will be welcomed, and will finally put an end to job losses in the Construction sector. Mortgage rates remain at historic lows, but unfortunately credit is still constrained. Refinancing to take advantage of these ultra low mortgage rates is a near impossibility for those who have seen their home values plummet over the past several years.

The extension of the first time home buyers’ tax credit expired at the end of April and there is expected to be a letdown in the wake of this incentive program coming to an end. This is not a true double-dip in housing, but akin to what we saw happen to auto sales when the automotive rebate program, more commonly known as “cash for clunkers,” expired.

The housing market continues to face significant headwinds, not only from tight credit conditions but also from the fundamental weakness of the underpinnings of housing demand. High and persistent unemployment, weak job growth, and slow population growth, combined with tight credit conditions, will ensure a protracted recovery in the housing sector. Figures 1 and 2 display data from the housing market for existing homes as released by the Florida Association of Realtors (FAR), and cover the housing market through May 2010. Sales (Figure 1) continue to rebound nicely, and median prices (Figure 2) appear to be closing in on a bottom to their steep decline. How firm this bottom turns out to be

The steep drop in prices has stimulated sales. The 12-month moving average of existing home sales (the smoother of the two lines plotted in Figure 1) has been Figure 1. Housing Sales FAR Data

Florida Single Family, Existing Homes

30000 Realtor Sales

25000

Moving Average

20000 15000 10000 5000

Data Source: Florida Association of Realtors

0

Year

Figure 2. Median Housing Prices FAR Data

Florida Single Family, Existing Homes $300,000.00 $250,000.00

Median Sales Price Moving Average

$200,000.00 $150,000.00 $100,000.00 $50,000.00 $-

Data Source: Florida Association of Realtors

Year Institute for Economic Competitiveness

7


F l o rida Summary

increasing steadily since September of 2008. Levels of sales are on par with those observed in 2006. Prices may be at a bottom, as the 12 month moving average of the median sales price has hovered around $140,000, and as of May 2010 stands at $140,400. In January, that price fell to just $130,900, a level that median price had not seen since 2001.

Outlook for Florida 2010-2013 Gross State Product Florida’s Economy Emerges from Recession Real Gross State Product (GSP) in Florida, the state-level analogue to Real GDP, has returned to a growth pattern in 2010. Growth will wobble in 2010 as Florida’s economy faces the same struggle as the national economy. Consumers dealing with the triple witching of depleted or, in many cases, negative home equity, shrunken nest eggs from the stock market’s decline, and sickly labor markets are lacking in confidence and are not spending at a pace consistent with a robust recovery.

These factors are what led to our 2nd Quarter 2009 forecast of a “gravy boat” recovery for the U.S. economy – a gradual, tapered recovery, in contrast to those predicting a V-shaped recovery. Recovery in Florida will also resemble the “gravy boat” path of the national economy. Growth will be muted and variable in the first two years of recovery, as Florida’s GSP expands at an average rate of 2.8% during 2010-2011. Improvement will begin to accelerate in 2012-2013, over which growth will average a healthier 3.8%. Nominal Gross State Product is expected to reach nearly $878 billion in 2013, as Florida resumes progress toward becoming a trillion-dollar economy. We still are forecasting GSP to finally break the trillion-dollar mark in 2016. Whether it is today’s economy of nearly threequarters of a trillion dollars, or the trillion dollar economy that Florida will eventually become, the Sunshine State is still one of the world’s largest economies. 8

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

Personal Income, Retail Sales, and Auto Sales Personal income growth will resume in 2010 with a healthy 5.4% growth rate. The first half of the year will be weaker than the second half, and that second half momentum will carry into 2011, when growth will be 5.3%. Personal income growth will accelerate slightly to 5.4% in 2012, and then back down to 5.3% 2013. Personal income growth in Florida will outpace that of the rest of the nation through 2013. This reversal in fortune in Florida comes after a three year period in which the state saw personal income growth well below the nation as a whole. In 2013 the level of personal income in Florida is expected to be in excess of $854 billion.

Real disposable income growth, which has been depressed by the floundering economy, and has contracted for two years, will finally show some growth in 2010, expanding at 2.8%. This stronger growth will be short-lived, as tax hikes at the federal, state, and local levels will begin to chip away at disposable incomes in the state. During 2011-2013, real disposable income will increase by an average rate of 2.2% each year. That compares to the average rate of growth during the seven year period from 2001-2007, when the average rate of growth for real disposable income stood at 4.1%. The outlook for disposable income, specifically as it relates to future tax rates at both the federal, state, and local levels, is more uncertain than it has been for many years. It is possible, perhaps even likely, that future tax hikes will lead to an even higher chunk of income going to the government than we are currently assuming. Hopefully, fiscal sanity or elections will check some of the reckless spending, particularly at the federal level. Nonetheless, the recent development of a European-style value-added tax suddenly entering into the lexicon of fiscal policy discussions as a way to pay for expensive bailouts and health care reform is a disturbing development. Consumers in Florida have been beleaguered, much more so than their counterparts around the country, by disappearing home equity and an evaporation of stock market wealth. In the Orlando and Miami metropolitan statistical areas, 85% of homeowners are under water, according to Fitch Ratings. So for 85%,


F l o rida Summary

home equity has a negative wealth effect on spending. The other 15% are not much better off in that sense, as they have also lost a tremendous amount of wealth, but their homes remain, for now, a net asset. The stock market made a strong recovery from the depths of despair at which it wallowed a little more than a year ago. However, that recovery is still well below the pre-crisis levels. Stock prices seem to be treading water at this point, as more evidence of a national economic recovery that is decelerating continues to emerge. The housing market in Florida has had no such run of luck, and while housing prices may have reached a bottom, the home equity that has been lost may take decades to be recouped.

Double digit unemployment will continue to weigh on consumer spending, but as the labor market stabilizes and private sector job creation builds momentum it will help bolster consumer confidence. Pent-up demand and a clearer sense for those who remained employed during the recession that their jobs are now safe will help to unlock some of the consumer spending that job insecurity inhibited.

Retail sales in Florida will grow slightly in the first half of 2010. Once the labor market has fully stabilized and begins its long path to recovery after the 2nd quarter of 2010, retail spending will begin to accelerate. We expect retail sales to expand from the 3rd quarter of 2010 going forward through the end of our forecast horizon. The average quarterly growth rate will be nearly 5.7% over this time frame. Retail sales will reach their pre-recession peak in the 3rd quarter of 2011. This year’s holiday shopping season may, for the first time in several years, be more than just a lump of coal to retailers. The recession, credit crunch, volatile energy prices, and a collapsing domestic automotive industry did conspire to bring average new passenger car and truck registrations down overall in 2009 for a fourth straight year. Registrations will begin to climb later in 2010, but will not reach the “cash for clunkers” levels until the 1st quarter of 2011.

Employment Overall payroll employment growth in the state is expected to shrink by just under -1.0% for 2010 versus

2009. This comes after contracting at a -6.2% rate in 2009 compared to 2008.

Payroll job losses in Florida have persisted through the 1st half of 2010. Even though payrolls will begin to grow later in 2010, the average level of employment in 2010 will still be below the average for 2009. While payroll growth will finally take root in 2010, it will only gain momentum in 2011, a year when job growth versus a year ago is expected to come in at 1.6%. Going forward, we have lowered growth slightly in the out years of our forecast, in part due to the impact of the Gulf oil spill. Payroll job growth will reach 3.1% in 2012, before tempering to 3.0% in 2013. Despite this acceleration of job growth, we believe it will now be 2015 before payroll employment levels return to their pre-recession peak.

The Construction sector, which has been in near free fall after peaking during the housing boom, will continue to show the painful effects of a pitiful housing market, the credit freeze, and an emerging crisis in the commercial construction market. Any job creation from the shovel-ready projects that will be funded by the federal economic stimulus plan will help resurrect some jobs in this sector. We expect that it will be the end of 2011 before this sector starts to add jobs once again. As previously discussed, the bottom of the residential real estate market will give way to tepid growth in housing starts, and will not be enough to have a major impact on employment in this sector. Despite the economic stimulus bill, this sector will continue to be the worst-performing private sector in the state’s economy on average through 2013, as far as job growth is concerned. Cumulative job losses in the sector have been catastrophic. It will likely be the year 2032 before the Construction sector has payroll employment levels back to the pre-recession peaks hit in 2006.

Job growth will not return to the Construction sector until the 4th quarter of 2011. Growth rates are expected to surge to 6.8% in 2012 and 9.3% in 2013 when the commercial sector will join in on the recovery, the full extent of the stimulus spending is felt, and the economic recovery expansion is in full swing. This recession claimed many white collar jobs, as reflected in the performance of the Professional and Business Services sector. Now that Florida’s economy Institute for Economic Competitiveness

9


F l o rida Summary has exited the recession, this sector will once again show robust growth in Florida. Job gains accelerate from mid-2010 and rise to 7.0% in 2011, 5.4% in 2012, and 6.0% in 2013. This sector will recover far more quickly than others, and will get back to pre-recession levels of employment in the 1st quarter of 2013.

The Information sector will continue to shed jobs through the middle of 2010. Newspapers continue to struggle amidst the structural changes gripping the industry. Advertising revenues have fallen off dramatically during the recession for all traditional media outlets, thanks in large part to the ongoing woes of the automotive industry and the housing bust, and several major newspapers and publishing groups have teetered on the edge of bankruptcy. Meager job growth will return in the second half of 2010. 2011 will be the first full year of job growth in this sector after nine of the ten prior years yielded job losses, including five straight years of net job losses leading up to 2011. Job growth will jump to 3.8% in 2011 as the recovery kicks into gear, and more or less stabilize around 2.4% in 2012-2013. The one sector that continued to create jobs during the recession and that is expected to continue to expand through the end of our forecast horizon is the Health and Education sector. During 2010-2013, employment in this sector is expected to expand at an average rate of 2.5%. The average growth rate for overall payroll employment during the same time frame is expected to be 1.7%.

It is still difficult to tell precisely how healthcare reform will manifest itself in Florida, but clearly, with expanding coverage and an aging population in Florida, it appears that demand for health services will remain strong in the foreseeable future. This rising demand should continue to drive job growth in this sector. The possibility of Medicare cuts, however, does raise an issue of concern that could seriously impact this sector’s future in Florida.

Manufacturing will continue to contract in Florida through the 3rd quarter of 2010. Globalization and productivity gains in manufacturing have combined to severely reduce employment in this sector. This sector is emerging from this lengthy and challenging period as competitive as it has been in many years. This will help drive job growth as exports continue to rise. We are expecting to see job growth of 4.3% in this sector for the full year in 2011, followed by an 10

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

even stronger year of job growth in 2012, when manufacturing employment will expand at a rate of 5.0%. For the first time in decades, manufacturing is expected to gain jobs in three consecutive years, as 2013 job growth is expected to be 3.3%.

Unemployment Unemployment rates in Florida have surged from record low levels of just 3.4% in 2006 to greater than 12% at present. Robust growth had sharply and quickly ratcheted down the unemployment rate, and when that growth faded, the unemployment rate began to soar. Florida’s unemployment rate, once more than a full percentage point below the historically low national unemployment rate, now has risen above the near double digit rate of national unemployment. Both will peak in 2010, and both will be slow to decline. Moderate growth will chip away at Florida’s unemployment rate but cannot ratchet it down dramatically.

How high will unemployment get? We are expecting unemployment to average 12.1% in the 3rd quarter of 2010 and remain above 10% until the 2nd quarter of 2012. Thereafter, unemployment will begin a slow decline through the end of 2013. By the end of 2013, unemployment will still be uncomfortably high at 8.0%. Compared to the amazingly low levels of unemployment during the boom, these levels are still quite high. In fact we do not expect to see unemployment in Florida fall below 5.0% again until 2022.

The problem of underemployment and marginally attached workers–those who are neither working nor looking for work, but indicate that they want and are available for a job, and have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months—and those who have given up searching for a job entirely, is substantial and will be a factor behind the persistently high unemployment rate. When adding these workers to the top level unemployment figure, this broader measure of unemployment, known as U6, paints an even grimmer picture of labor markets, and is over 19% through the 1st quarter of 2010 in Florida, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This is higher than the previous BLS estimate of 18% that covered the 4th quarter of 2009.


F l o rida Summary T ab l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

508.4

531.2

582.8

633.2

690.3

Florida (%Ch)

4.3

4.5

9.7

8.7

9.0

U.S.(%Ch)

2.0

3.5

6.0

5.5

492.2

504.0

538.8

Florida (%Ch)

2.9

2.4

U.S.(%Ch)

3.8

2.5

441.7

459.0

Florida (%Ch)

5.2

U.S.(%Ch)

3.8

2007

2008

2009

2010

713.5

719.7

700.4

731.4

3.4

0.9

-2.7

4.4

7.5

5.6

2.9

-1.7

3.2

568.4

603.1

607.2

592.6

575.6

591.5

6.9

5.5

6.1

0.7

-2.4

-2.9

2.8

10.1

4.3

7.6

-4.2

0.1

-4.3

4.7

487.8

506.5

537.3

540.3

533.6

531.4

546.5

3.9

6.3

3.8

6.1

0.6

-1.2

-0.4

2.8

2.5

10.1

4.3

7.6

-4.2

0.1

-4.3

4.7

522.7

559.0

607.3

670.0

721.4

741.9

744.1

724.9

753.6

5.1

6.9

8.6

10.3

7.7

2.8

0.3

-2.6

4.0

497.3

520.4

548.6

589.3

613.6

613.4

603.5

581.5

598.2

(%Ch)

2.6

4.6

5.4

7.4

4.1

0.0

-1.6

-3.6

2.9

Employment

0.0

1.7

3.0

3.8

3.4

1.4

-1.0

-4.5

Labor Force

1.1

1.3

2.3

2.9

2.9

2.2

1.4

-0.1

0.9

FL Unemployment Rate (%)

5.7

5.3

4.7

3.8

3.4

4.1

6.3

10.5

12.1

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

5.8

6.0

5.5

5.1

4.6

4.6

5.8

9.3

9.7

-0.4

Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)

Personal Income (Bil. 2000$)

Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$)

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2000$)

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) -0.9

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction

-1.1

-0.3

1.1

1.7

1.8

1.1

-0.6

-4.3

0.1

1.1

3.4

4.0

2.6

0.2

-3.5

-6.2

-1.0

-12.8

-1.2

0.2

-0.8

-6.5

1.6

-7.8

-11.6

-0.9 -10.5

1.1

3.8

9.4

11.3

7.2

-8.8

-17.4

-23.2

Manufacturing

-5.8

-4.2

0.2

1.2

0.2

-4.2

-7.0

-13.0

-2.6

Nondurable Goods

-3.6

-3.3

-2.1

-1.8

-2.0

-1.5

-6.2

-9.7

-2.0

Durable Goods

-7.0

-4.7

1.4

2.6

1.3

-5.4

-7.4

-14.7

-2.9

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

-2.8

-3.2

1.6

3.8

1.4

0.1

-2.1

-6.3

-1.3

Wholesale Trade

-0.2

0.5

3.4

4.1

2.9

1.5

-3.1

-8.1

-1.5

Retail Trade

-1.2

-0.2

2.7

4.1

2.0

0.5

-2.9

-6.6

-0.2

Financial Activities

1.2

2.2

3.8

5.0

3.2

-1.0

-4.6

-7.5

-4.0

Prof. and Business Services

0.2

1.5

5.9

7.1

4.2

0.7

-6.1

-7.5

0.7

Edu & Health Services

2.7

3.7

3.0

2.4

2.7

3.1

2.1

1.1

3.1

Leisure & Hospitality

0.4

1.8

4.3

2.7

1.4

2.0

-1.4

-4.5

-2.3 -5.8

Information

-5.7

-3.7

-2.1

0.2

-0.9

-0.3

-3.4

-8.2

Federal Gov't.

0.4

3.4

0.4

1.5

-0.8

0.2

1.4

2.1

3.9

State & Local Gov't.

1.7

1.1

1.4

1.4

2.0

2.4

0.3

-1.2

-0.5

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)

16715.9 17035.6 17426.5 17814.9 18104.7 18293.3 18436.1 18553.9 18680.9 2.0

1.9

2.3

2.2

1.6

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.7

Net Migration (thous)

68.7

76.1

88.5

74.0

44.3

26.3

17.9

15.5

18.4

(%Ch)

-1.1

11.9

18.6

-16.2

-41.8

-36.7

-32.4

-7.4

20.3

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

182.6

207.7

238.8

272.7

205.2

101.7

60.8

33.8

43.6

Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

133.5

159.8

183.1

211.4

156.3

74.9

40.8

27.1

41.3

49.1

47.9

55.7

61.3

48.9

26.9

20.0

6.7

2.3

1.7

2.7

2.9

4.2

-0.3

1.7

Housing

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

Consumer Prices (%Ch)

4.6

4.1

3.3

Continued

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

11


F l o rida Summary T ab l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

770.2

811.8

854.5

910.1

967.2

1027.0

Florida (%Ch)

5.3

5.4

5.3

6.5

6.3

6.2

U.S.(%Ch)

4.7

5.1

4.8

6.0

5.5

613.2

635.0

656.0

685.2

Florida (%Ch)

3.7

3.6

3.3

U.S.(%Ch)

6.4

5.2

4.7

560.5

573.5

Florida (%Ch)

2.6

U.S.(%Ch)

6.4 786.3

2017

2018

2019

2020

1088.1

1150.0

1218.4

1290.5

6.0

5.7

6.0

5.9

5.6

5.1

5.0

5.1

5.2

714.2

743.7

772.8

800.6

832.3

865.4

4.5

4.2

4.1

3.9

3.6

4.0

4.0

5.8

4.7

5.5

5.4

5.6

5.8

5.8

583.9

610.0

635.4

661.0

685.5

708.2

734.5

761.6

2.3

1.8

4.5

4.2

4.0

3.7

3.3

3.7

3.7

5.2

4.7

5.8

4.7

5.5

5.4

5.6

5.8

5.8

831.8

878.2

929.6

982.1

1037.9

1093.3

1150.5

1211.7

1275.0

Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)

Personal Income (Bil. 2000$)

Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$)

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch)

4.3

5.8

5.6

5.8

5.6

5.7

5.3

5.2

5.3

5.2

614.9

639.2

662.1

687.0

711.9

738.3

763.1

787.7

814.3

840.9

(%Ch)

2.8

3.9

3.6

3.8

3.6

3.7

3.4

3.2

3.4

3.3

Employment

1.6

2.6

2.6

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.0

1.9

1.8

1.7

Labor Force

0.6

0.8

1.1

1.2

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.4

11.3

9.7

8.4

7.5

7.1

6.7

6.3

5.9

5.6

5.2

9.2

8.4

7.7

7.3

6.9

6.4

6.1

5.8

5.5

5.2

0.8

GSP (Bil. 2000$)

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)

FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S.

1.8

2.7

2.1

1.5

1.1

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.8

Florida

1.6

3.1

3.0

2.4

2.1

2.1

1.8

1.5

1.6

1.6

0.8

0.1

-0.9

-0.6

-1.7

-2.7

-2.9

-3.1

-3.0

-2.0

Mining Construction

-2.2

6.8

9.3

5.9

3.5

3.7

3.5

3.2

2.0

2.1

Manufacturing

4.3

5.0

3.3

1.2

-0.1

-0.7

-0.7

-0.6

-0.7

-0.7

Nondurable Goods

0.5

0.6

-0.5

-1.2

-1.0

-0.7

-0.5

-0.7

-0.9

-0.8

Durable Goods

6.3

7.1

5.1

2.3

0.3

-0.6

-0.7

-0.5

-0.7

-0.7

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

2.9

5.8

4.0

2.9

2.9

2.6

2.3

1.6

0.6

0.1

Wholesale Trade

2.0

4.4

3.4

2.3

1.9

1.3

1.1

1.4

1.4

1.6

Retail Trade

0.6

2.5

2.3

1.5

0.8

-0.1

-0.3

0.1

0.5

0.4

Financial Activities

0.4

2.9

1.3

0.6

0.8

0.8

0.7

0.4

0.6

0.4

Prof. and Business Services

7.0

5.4

6.0

6.0

5.6

6.1

5.0

3.8

4.3

4.1

Edu & Health Services

2.4

2.6

1.8

2.0

2.1

2.8

2.1

2.0

2.0

2.0

-0.2

2.0

2.4

0.9

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.2

0.5

0.1

3.8

2.5

2.2

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.9

1.5

1.4

0.9

Federal Gov't.

-5.7

-1.3

-0.5

-0.1

0.2

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.8

7.3

State & Local Gov't.

-0.9

0.9

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.2

1.2

1.0

1.0

0.8

Leisure & Hospitality Information

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)

18821.6 19020.1 19288.4 19605.5 19942.2 20288.9 20644.7 21005.5 21368.0 21731.3 0.8

1.1

1.4

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.8

1.7

1.7

1.7

Net Migration (thous)

25.4

41.9

58.4

66.3

68.9

70.5

71.8

71.9

71.5

71.1

(%Ch)

38.7

66.8

40.0

14.0

3.9

2.3

1.8

0.1

-0.5

-0.6

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

87.8

135.1

158.6

165.0

171.8

181.0

185.6

188.1

191.5

193.4

Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

72.5

111.2

125.8

127.6

129.2

132.8

134.2

135.0

135.9

136.3

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

15.3

23.8

32.8

37.4

42.6

48.2

51.5

53.1

55.6

57.0

1.8

2.2

2.3

2.2

2.0

2.2

2.1

1.8

Housing

Consumer Prices (%Ch)

12

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

2.1

2.1

Continued


F l o rida Summary T ab l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

1363.6

1438.2

1512.8

1589.2

1671.3

1758.8

Florida (%Ch)

5.7

5.5

5.2

5.0

5.2

5.2

U.S.(%Ch)

5.0

4.9

4.7

4.6

4.7

2027

2028

2029

2030

1850.6

1944.0

2041.9

2143.6

5.2

5.0

5.0

5.0

4.7

4.7

4.6

4.6

4.6 1198.2

Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)

898.4

930.9

961.7

991.8

1024.0

1058.1

1093.3

1127.5

1162.7

Florida (%Ch)

Personal Income (Bil. 2000$)

3.8

3.6

3.3

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.3

3.1

3.1

3.1

U.S.(%Ch)

5.7

5.3

4.9

4.5

4.7

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.4 1020.1

788.3

815.1

838.4

861.7

887.6

913.2

941.4

968.0

993.3

Florida (%Ch)

Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$)

3.5

3.4

2.8

2.8

3.0

2.9

3.1

2.8

2.6

2.7

U.S.(%Ch)

5.7

5.3

4.9

4.5

4.7

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.4

1339.5

1408.4

1478.7

1550.6

1628.9

1709.3

1790.9

1875.9

1966.1

2062.9

5.1

5.1

5.0

4.9

5.1

4.9

4.8

4.7

4.8

4.9

868.6

899.0

929.2

959.1

991.4

1023.3

1054.1

1085.6

1118.4

1153.4

(%Ch)

3.3

3.5

3.4

3.2

3.4

3.2

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.1

Employment

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

Labor Force

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2000$)

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)

FL Unemployment Rate (%)

5.1

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.9

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.1

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

5.0

4.9

4.9

4.8

4.8

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.9

5.0

1.0

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S.

0.7

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

Florida

1.7

1.9

1.7

1.4

1.6

1.7

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.6

-1.7

-1.4

-1.4

-1.9

-1.7

-1.1

-1.1

-1.2

-0.8

-0.5

Mining Construction

2.6

2.8

2.8

2.4

2.5

2.8

2.4

2.0

2.0

2.1

Manufacturing

-1.7

-2.0

-2.2

-1.9

-1.6

-1.5

-1.3

-1.4

-1.2

-1.0

Nondurable Goods

-1.1

-1.5

-1.4

-1.4

-1.4

-1.3

-1.2

-1.1

-1.0

-1.1

Durable Goods

-1.9

-2.3

-2.5

-2.2

-1.7

-1.5

-1.4

-1.5

-1.2

-0.9

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

1.8

2.6

2.3

2.1

2.0

1.8

1.2

1.0

1.2

0.3

Wholesale Trade

2.1

2.6

2.3

1.8

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.3

Retail Trade

0.3

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.8

0.9

0.7

0.5

Financial Activities

0.5

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.4

Prof. and Business Services

5.1

4.9

4.0

2.9

3.7

3.8

3.2

3.3

3.7

3.5

Edu & Health Services

1.3

1.2

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.2

Leisure & Hospitality

0.4

0.8

0.7

0.5

0.5

0.7

0.9

0.9

1.0

0.7

Information

1.2

1.5

1.5

1.2

1.2

1.6

1.7

1.9

2.1

1.9

-3.5

1.1

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

7.5

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.6

Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)

22095.9 22464.7 22838.1 23216.0 23598.2 23984.8 24375.7 24771.3 25170.0 25571.0 1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

71.1

71.7

72.4

73.1

73.7

74.4

75.0

75.7

76.4

77.0

0.0

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

191.6

194.1

195.6

196.5

199.0

199.9

196.5

191.8

188.3

188.7

Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

134.6

136.0

137.2

139.0

142.1

143.3

140.2

135.7

133.0

133.8

57.0

58.2

58.4

57.5

56.9

56.6

56.4

56.1

55.3

54.9

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.9

1.9

1.9

2.0

1.9

Net Migration (thous) (%Ch)

Housing

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

Consumer Prices (%Ch)

1.9

1.8

Continued

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

13


F l o rida Summary T ab l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2252.2

2368.7

2486.7

2606.1

2729.3

2859.8

Florida (%Ch)

5.1

5.2

5.0

4.8

4.7

4.8

U.S.(%Ch)

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.5

1235.6

1275.4

1313.6

1350.5

Florida (%Ch)

3.1

3.2

3.0

U.S.(%Ch)

4.3

4.3

4.3

1049.5

1079.9

Florida (%Ch)

2.9

U.S.(%Ch)

4.3 2166.9

2037

2038

2039

2040

2992.4

3128.3

3268.3

3415.4

4.6

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

1387.7

1426.5

1464.2

1501.1

1537.6

1575.4

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.5

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.5

1108.3

1136.6

1164.7

1193.9

1221.6

1248.5

1274.7

1301.7

2.9

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.2

2.1

2.1

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.5

2276.4

2387.9

2502.1

2620.5

2747.8

2882.9

3021.1

3170.4

3330.5

Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)

Personal Income (Bil. 2000$)

Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$)

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch)

5.0

5.1

4.9

4.8

4.7

4.9

4.9

4.8

4.9

5.0

1190.8

1229.7

1268.0

1306.0

1344.4

1385.4

1428.4

1471.0

1516.8

1565.5

(%Ch)

3.2

3.3

3.1

3.0

2.9

3.1

3.1

3.0

3.1

3.2

Employment

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.4

Labor Force

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

FL Unemployment Rate (%)

5.1

5.2

5.2

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.5

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

5.0

5.0

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.2

0.9

GSP (Bil. 2000$)

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S.

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.9

Florida

1.8

2.0

1.6

1.3

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.1

1.1

1.1

-0.1

0.2

-0.2

-0.6

-1.0

-0.9

-0.7

-0.9

-1.1

-1.6

Mining Construction

2.9

3.0

2.9

2.0

1.8

1.9

2.1

1.9

1.9

1.5

Manufacturing

-0.8

-0.9

-1.1

-1.0

-1.1

-1.0

-0.9

-0.8

-0.5

-0.2

Nondurable Goods

-1.0

-0.9

-0.9

-0.9

-1.1

-1.1

-1.1

-1.1

-0.9

-0.8

Durable Goods

-0.7

-0.9

-1.1

-1.0

-1.1

-0.9

-0.9

-0.7

-0.3

0.0

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.2

-0.4

-0.5

-0.6

-0.8

Wholesale Trade

0.8

0.3

0.1

0.0

-0.1

0.0

-0.2

-0.2

-0.1

0.2

Retail Trade

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.6

Financial Activities

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.2

1.2

1.1

0.6

Prof. and Business Services

4.2

4.7

3.4

2.7

2.5

2.8

2.7

2.1

2.1

2.3

Edu & Health Services

1.3

1.5

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.9

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.8

Leisure & Hospitality

1.1

1.2

1.1

1.0

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.7

1.0

0.3

Information

2.5

3.0

2.5

1.7

1.5

1.8

2.1

2.1

1.9

1.4

-4.3

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.7

6.0

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.4

0.3

Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)

25974.5 26380.3 26788.3 27198.7 27611.2 28026.2 28444.1 28865.2 29290.0 29719.5 1.6

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

77.7

78.3

78.9

79.6

80.2

80.8

81.4

82.0

82.7

83.7

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

1.2

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

187.4

183.7

182.1

182.7

183.1

182.2

179.5

177.0

176.0

174.7

Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

132.9

128.8

127.6

128.6

129.8

130.3

129.1

127.5

126.9

126.2

54.6

54.9

54.4

54.1

53.3

51.9

50.4

49.5

49.1

48.5

1.9

1.9

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.1

Net Migration (thous) (%Ch)

Housing

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

Consumer Prices (%Ch)

14

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

2.0

2.0


F l o rida Summary T ab l e s Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4

Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)

729.6

739.1

747.8

757.4

764.8

774.1

784.3

795.1

806.5

817.6

828.2

837.6

848.9

860.1

Florida (%Ch)

4.0

6.1

6.3

6.8

4.8

4.7

4.9

5.0

5.4

5.6

5.6

5.3

5.3

5.2

5.2

U.S.(%Ch)

2.4

4.0

4.4

4.7

4.7

4.6

4.7

4.7

5.1

5.2

5.3

5.0

4.9

4.8

4.8 664.5

Personal Income (Bil. 2000$)

871.5

591.5

597.0

602.0

606.9

610.3

615.0

620.5

626.2

632.4

638.1

643.2

647.4

653.1

658.8

Florida (%Ch)

2.2

4.5

5.0

5.4

3.2

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.6

3.8

3.7

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.3

U.S.(%Ch)

5.1

5.5

5.7

6.4

6.5

6.4

6.5

5.9

5.4

4.9

4.5

4.4

4.6

4.9

5.1

546.1

551.7

555.0

554.7

558.1

562.1

567.2

567.0

571.9

575.7

579.2

578.4

581.1

585.2

590.8

Florida(%Ch)

Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$)

2.2

4.6

4.8

4.1

2.2

1.9

2.2

2.2

2.5

2.4

2.1

2.0

1.6

1.6

2.0

U.S.(%Ch)

5.1

5.5

5.7

6.4

6.5

6.4

6.5

5.9

5.4

4.9

4.5

4.4

4.6

4.9

5.1

751.4

758.0

763.2

771.6

780.3

791.1

802.1

813.9

825.5

837.6

850.1

861.4

872.7

883.9

895.0

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch)

4.4

4.7

4.0

4.0

3.9

4.4

5.1

5.5

5.8

5.9

6.0

5.8

5.7

5.5

5.3

596.7

599.6

603.5

607.2

611.5

617.4

623.6

629.6

635.9

642.3

648.8

653.8

659.4

665.0

670.2

3.2

3.2

2.6

2.4

2.5

3.0

3.3

3.7

4.0

4.0

4.0

3.8

3.7

3.5

3.3

Employment

-1.2

-0.3

0.4

1.1

1.3

1.8

2.3

2.4

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.4

Labor Force

1.0

1.1

1.1

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.9

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.2

12.1

12.1

12.1

11.8

11.5

11.1

10.7

10.3

9.9

9.4

9.1

8.8

8.5

8.2

8.0

9.9

9.7

9.6

9.5

9.3

9.1

8.9

8.7

8.5

8.3

8.1

7.9

7.8

7.6

7.5

GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch)

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)

FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S.

-0.6

0.3

0.9

1.4

1.5

2.0

2.4

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.7

2.5

2.3

2.0

1.8

Florida

-1.1

-0.3

0.5

0.9

1.1

1.9

2.5

2.9

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.1

3.2

3.0

2.9

Mining

-0.4

-0.3

0.0

0.1

0.4

1.3

1.6

1.4

0.4

-0.5

-1.0

-1.4

-1.1

-0.7

-0.5

-11.0

-8.8

-5.5

-5.4

-4.5

-0.7

1.9

4.6

6.7

7.5

8.6

9.3

9.5

9.5

9.0

Manufacturing

-4.2

-0.5

3.9

4.6

3.9

4.2

4.4

5.1

5.2

5.0

4.6

4.0

3.6

3.1

2.5

Nondurable Goods

-2.8

-0.1

1.4

1.1

0.3

0.1

0.4

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.2

-0.2

-0.5

-0.7

-0.8

Construction

Durable Goods

-4.8

-0.6

5.3

6.4

5.8

6.4

6.4

7.3

7.4

7.1

6.7

6.0

5.5

4.8

4.0

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

-1.3

-0.3

-0.1

0.5

1.8

3.9

5.3

6.0

6.1

5.6

5.3

4.7

4.3

3.8

3.4

Wholesale Trade

-1.8

-0.3

0.3

-0.2

1.2

2.9

4.2

5.0

4.7

4.0

4.0

3.8

3.6

3.4

2.8

Retail Trade

-0.4

0.3

1.0

-0.1

0.3

0.6

1.4

1.9

2.6

2.9

2.6

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.1

Financial Activities

-4.6

-3.3

-3.0

-2.0

-0.3

1.0

2.8

3.4

3.2

2.8

2.3

1.7

1.4

1.1

0.9

Prof. and Business Services

-0.4

1.7

3.5

5.7

7.2

7.6

7.4

6.3

5.5

5.1

4.7

5.2

6.0

6.4

6.6

Edu & Health Services

3.4

3.5

2.8

2.3

2.0

2.4

2.7

2.9

2.7

2.5

2.3

2.1

1.9

1.7

1.5

-2.8

-1.5

-1.3

0.0

-0.1

-0.4

-0.1

0.6

1.5

2.5

3.3

3.2

2.7

2.1

1.6

Information

-7.1

-4.6

-2.7

2.3

4.2

4.6

4.0

3.3

2.5

2.3

2.2

2.1

2.3

2.3

2.0

Federal Gov't.

10.8

3.6

0.2

-1.4

-13.0

-5.7

-2.6

-1.8

-1.3

-1.1

-0.8

-0.7

-0.6

-0.4

-0.4

0.1

-0.8

-0.9

-1.3

-1.4

-0.7

-0.2

0.3

0.7

1.1

1.4

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.7

Leisure & Hospitality

State & Local Gov't.

Population and Migration Population (thous)

18665.0 18696.6 18728.4 18762.2 18799.0 18840.0 18885.3 18934.8 18988.7 19047.1 19109.9 19177.4 19249.3 19324.6 19402.5

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.5

Net Migration (thous)

(%Ch)

17.8

17.9

18.2

20.0

23.0

27.2

31.3

35.5

39.8

44.1

48.4

53.0

57.2

60.4

62.8

(%Ch)

26.3

12.3

1.9

1.6

29.4

51.5

72.2

76.9

73.0

62.5

54.7

49.4

43.8

37.0

29.7

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

48.6

37.4

43.9

64.7

81.6

97.2

107.9

120.6

130.6

141.6

147.5

151.4

157.8

162.0

163.2

Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

40.2

42.4

45.0

52.9

66.2

79.7

91.5

100.1

108.5

116.8

119.5

121.0

125.7

128.3

128.2

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

8.5

-5.0

-1.1

11.8

15.4

17.5

16.5

20.5

22.1

24.8

28.0

30.3

32.1

33.8

35.0

(%Ch)

1.8

1.7

1.4

1.4

1.8

1.8

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.2

Housing

Consumer Prices 2.0

2.0

2.1

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

15


F l o rida Summary T ab l e s Table 3. Employment Quarterly* 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm Manufacturing Durable Goods Wood Products Computer & Electronics Transportation Equipment Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining Construction

7195.2 7185.8 7199.8 7231.6 7272.3 7324.1 7381.9 7439.5 7494.7 7554.1 7614.5 7672.9 7730.8 7783.6 7832.2 312.7

315.5

319.1

321.3

325.0

328.8

333.2

337.8

341.8

345.2

348.5

351.3

354.1

355.9

357.4

205.0

207.4

211.1

213.4

216.9

220.6

224.7

228.9

232.9

236.3

239.8

242.7

245.7

247.7

249.5

8.7

8.8

9.0

9.2

9.5

9.8

10.1

10.4

10.7

10.9

11.2

11.2

11.3

11.3

11.4

42.9

43.7

44.3

44.1

44.0

43.5

43.1

43.1

43.1

43.3

43.8

44.5

44.9

45.0

45.3

33.5

33.6

34.1

34.7

35.3

36.0

36.9

37.8

38.7

39.5

40.2

40.9

41.5

42.1

42.5

107.7

108.1

108.0

107.9

108.1

108.2

108.5

108.8

108.9

108.9

108.7

108.6

108.4

108.2

107.9

28.5

28.4

28.3

28.3

28.2

28.2

28.2

28.3

28.3

28.3

28.2

28.2

28.2

28.2

28.1

6882.6 6870.3 6880.6 6910.3 6947.3 6995.3 7048.7 7101.8 7152.9 7208.9 7266.0 7321.6 7376.7 7427.7 7474.8 5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

355.9

346.7

342.1

339.0

339.8

344.3

348.6

354.5

362.4

370.3

378.5

387.3

396.9

405.3

412.7

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

227.5

226.7

226.9

229.0

231.6

235.6

238.9

242.7

245.7

248.9

251.6

254.2

256.2

258.3

260.1

Wholesale Trade

313.1

312.7

312.1

313.1

316.9

321.8

325.4

328.8

331.8

334.8

338.2

341.3

343.7

346.2

347.7

Retail Trade

920.8

920.7

922.0

923.0

923.6

926.6

934.5

940.9

947.5

953.3

958.4

963.2

969.7

974.9

978.7

Information

133.9

134.2

135.9

138.1

139.6

140.4

141.2

142.6

143.0

143.6

144.3

145.5

146.3

146.8

147.2

Prof. & Bus. Services

1038.6 1051.8 1073.1 1097.1 1113.8 1132.2 1152.6 1166.8 1175.0 1189.7 1207.0 1227.3 1245.9 1265.5 1286.1

Admin. & Support

519.9

530.3

550.3

567.5

574.7

586.1

599.8

609.8

614.9

625.5

638.7

654.3

668.2

683.3

699.1

Prof. Sci & Tech

437.0

439.1

439.8

446.3

455.3

462.3

468.3

471.9

474.4

477.8

481.2

485.4

489.4

493.4

497.5

81.7

82.4

82.9

83.3

83.7

83.8

84.5

85.1

85.7

86.5

87.1

87.7

88.3

88.8

89.4

464.1

462.3

458.5

459.5

462.7

466.8

471.4

475.0

477.3

480.0

482.0

483.2

483.9

485.3

486.1

Mgmt. of Co. Financial Activities Real Estate & Rent

151.5

151.2

150.6

151.7

152.9

154.4

156.0

157.3

158.5

159.8

160.7

161.4

162.0

162.8

163.5

Fin. & Insurance

312.6

311.0

307.9

307.8

309.8

312.4

315.4

317.7

318.8

320.1

321.3

321.8

321.8

322.5

322.6

Edu. & Health Service Education Services

1089.1 1094.1 1098.6 1102.2 1111.2 1120.8 1128.2 1133.9 1141.7 1148.3 1154.1 1157.2 1163.6 1168.0 1171.8 146.5

147.4

147.5

148.0

148.2

148.1

148.2

148.0

147.9

147.7

147.5

147.5

147.4

147.3

147.1

Health Services

942.6

946.7

951.1

954.2

963.1

972.7

980.0

985.9

993.8 1000.6 1006.6 1009.8 1016.2 1020.7 1024.7

Leisure & Hospitality

889.0

889.8

887.8

887.4

887.9

886.5

886.6

892.8

901.3

908.7

915.6

921.3

925.2

927.6

930.4

311.3

311.9

312.5

314.1

314.4

314.8

315.4

315.9

315.8

316.6

317.3

317.9

317.8

318.1

318.5

Other Services Government

1133.7 1114.1 1105.5 1102.4 1100.3 1099.9 1100.6 1102.5 1105.8 1109.4 1113.6 1117.8 1122.2 1126.3 1130.3

Federal Gov't.

149.0

136.9

132.1

130.7

129.7

129.1

128.6

128.3

128.0

127.7

127.6

127.4

127.3

127.1

State & Local Gov't

984.7

977.2

973.5

971.7

970.6

970.8

971.9

974.2

977.8

981.7

986.0

990.4

994.9

999.2 1003.2

*Quarterly at an annual rate

16

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

127.1


F l o rida Summary T ab l e s Table 4. Employment Annual 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7169.1

7250.4

7499.3

7799.8

8002.2

8018.1

7735.5

7259.1

7187.8

Manufacturing

428.0

409.8

410.7

415.4

416.3

399.0

371.0

322.8

313.6

Durable Goods

283.4

270.0

273.8

281.0

284.6

269.2

249.3

212.9

206.0

Wood Products

18.0

17.8

20.3

22.4

21.6

17.0

12.8

9.2

8.7

Computer & Electronics

59.7

53.4

52.5

51.4

50.1

49.2

48.0

44.5

43.4

Transportation Equipment

44.9

43.7

44.3

45.6

45.7

44.6

42.5

34.7

33.4

144.6

139.8

136.9

134.5

131.8

129.8

121.7

109.9

107.7

35.2

34.1

33.3

32.4

31.2

31.4

29.6

27.9

28.3

6741.1

6840.5

7088.6

7384.4

7585.8

7619.1

7364.4

6936.3

6874.2

7.2

7.1

7.1

7.1

6.6

6.7

6.2

5.5

5.4

Construction

500.5

519.7

568.5

633.0

677.8

618.5

511.5

393.0

350.7

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

242.3

234.7

238.3

247.3

250.8

251.0

245.9

230.3

227.2

Wholesale Trade

315.7

317.3

328.0

341.4

351.4

356.7

345.7

317.7

312.9

Retail Trade

931.2

928.9

954.2

993.5

1013.3

1017.9

988.7

923.3

921.8

Information

172.8

166.3

162.9

163.2

161.7

161.3

155.8

143.0

134.7

Prof. & Bus. Services

995.0

1010.3

1069.6

1145.5

1193.6

1201.7

1128.4

1043.4

1050.5

Admin. & Support

547.2

553.7

590.6

636.7

662.8

660.7

589.4

531.6

531.0

Prof. Sci & Tech

376.8

384.9

404.0

431.2

451.5

460.0

456.3

431.7

437.8

70.9

71.8

75.0

77.7

79.3

81.0

82.8

80.1

81.7

Financial Activities

481.1

491.8

510.3

535.8

552.6

547.2

521.9

482.8

463.5

Real Estate & Rent

154.5

157.7

166.5

176.6

182.4

178.1

169.8

155.2

151.3

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Mgmt. of Co.

Fin. & Insurance

326.6

334.1

343.8

359.1

370.2

369.1

352.1

327.6

312.2

Edu. & Health Service

884.9

917.5

944.7

967.8

993.5

1024.0

1045.5

1057.2

1089.9

Education Services

101.5

110.0

118.7

124.6

128.3

134.1

138.0

141.7

146.5

Health Services

783.4

807.5

826.0

843.3

865.3

890.0

907.5

915.5

943.4

Leisure & Hospitality

855.9

871.6

909.3

933.7

947.2

965.9

952.6

909.9

888.5

Other Services

315.3

322.3

329.4

334.9

338.0

345.6

335.4

312.7

311.5

1039.2

1053.0

1066.3

1081.1

1099.2

1122.6

1126.9

1117.5

1117.6

Federal Gov't.

122.2

126.3

126.8

128.7

127.7

128.0

129.7

132.4

137.6

State & Local Gov't

917.0

926.8

939.5

952.4

971.5

994.6

997.2

985.1

979.9

Government

Continued

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

17


F l o rida Summary T ab l e s Table 4. Employment Annual 2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7302.5

7525.7

7754.9

7943.3

8108.6

8278.1

8425.9

8553.1

8690.4

8829.4

Manufacturing

327.1

343.3

354.6

358.9

358.5

356.2

353.7

351.7

349.1

346.7

218.9

234.5

246.4

251.9

252.7

251.1

249.2

247.9

246.2

244.5

9.6

10.8

11.3

11.3

11.1

11.1

11.1

11.2

11.3

11.3

Computer & Electronics

43.7

43.3

44.9

45.9

46.0

46.0

45.6

45.4

45.1

45.2

Transportation Equipment

35.7

39.0

41.8

43.3

43.4

41.8

40.3

39.4

38.5

37.6

108.2

108.8

108.3

107.0

105.9

105.1

104.5

103.8

102.9

102.1

28.2

28.3

28.2

28.1

27.9

27.8

27.7

27.6

27.4

27.4

6975.4

7182.4

7400.2

7584.4

7750.0

7921.9

8072.1

8201.4

8341.3

8482.7

5.5

5.5

5.4

5.4

5.3

5.1

5.0

4.8

4.7

4.6

Construction

342.9

366.4

400.6

424.1

438.7

455.2

471.0

486.0

495.6

505.9

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

233.8

247.2

257.2

264.8

272.5

279.6

286.1

290.7

292.6

292.9

Wholesale Trade

319.3

333.4

344.7

352.7

359.6

364.2

368.3

373.3

378.5

384.7

Retail Trade

926.9

950.0

971.6

986.3

994.0

993.0

990.5

991.3

995.8

999.6

Information

139.8

143.4

146.5

148.2

150.2

152.6

155.6

157.9

160.1

161.5

Prof. & Bus. Services

1123.9

1184.6

1256.2

1331.3

1406.4

1492.1

1567.0

1626.8

1697.3

1767.6

Admin. & Support

582.1

622.2

676.2

737.1

801.0

875.6

937.9

981.1

1028.6

1070.9

Prof. Sci & Tech

458.0

476.3

491.4

502.4

509.9

517.2

526.2

538.7

557.8

580.8

83.8

86.1

88.5

91.9

95.5

99.3

103.0

107.0

110.9

115.9

Financial Activities

465.1

478.6

484.6

487.5

491.4

495.4

498.8

500.7

503.9

505.8

Real Estate & Rent

153.8

159.1

162.4

165.4

167.6

168.9

170.6

172.3

173.9

175.2

Fin. & Insurance

311.3

319.5

322.2

322.0

323.9

326.5

328.2

328.4

329.9

330.6

Durable Goods Wood Products

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Mgmt. of Co.

1115.6

1144.5

1165.1

1188.3

1213.4

1247.2

1273.3

1298.2

1323.6

1350.6

Education Services

Edu. & Health Service

148.1

147.8

147.3

146.7

147.4

149.0

150.4

151.6

153.2

154.8

Health Services

967.5

996.7

1017.9

1041.7

1066.0

1098.2

1122.9

1146.6

1170.4

1195.8

Leisure & Hospitality

887.1

904.6

926.1

934.4

938.4

942.2

945.6

947.6

952.7

953.6

Other Services

314.7

316.4

318.1

321.2

324.0

326.2

328.1

329.3

330.7

332.2

1100.8

1107.8

1124.2

1140.2

1155.9

1169.1

1182.8

1194.6

1206.0

1223.8

Federal Gov't.

129.5

127.9

127.2

127.1

127.4

128.1

129.1

130.1

131.1

140.7

State & Local Gov't

971.3

979.9

996.9

1013.1

1028.6

1041.0

1053.7

1064.6

1075.0

1083.1

Government

18

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

Continued


F l o rida Summary T ab l e s Table 4. Employment Annual 2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

8976.5

9149.7

9305.9

9436.3

9587.9

9746.6

Manufacturing

340.9

334.0

326.6

320.3

315.1

310.5

306.4

302.1

298.5

295.6

239.9

234.5

228.5

223.6

219.7

216.4

213.4

210.1

207.6

205.6

Wood Products

11.2

11.0

10.9

10.9

10.8

10.8

10.7

10.7

10.6

10.6

Computer & Electronics

44.4

43.1

42.0

41.3

40.9

40.5

40.1

39.9

39.8

39.7

Transportation Equipment

36.7

35.8

34.8

33.9

33.1

32.4

31.8

31.2

30.5

30.0

101.0

99.5

98.1

96.7

95.4

94.1

93.0

91.9

91.0

89.9

27.3

27.2

27.1

27.0

26.9

26.8

26.7

26.5

26.4

26.2

8635.6

8815.7

8979.2

9115.9

9272.8

9436.0

9589.7

9747.6

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.0

Construction

518.9

533.4

548.2

561.2

575.0

590.9

605.3

617.6

629.6

643.1

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

298.1

305.9

313.1

319.6

326.0

331.8

335.8

339.2

343.2

344.1

Wholesale Trade

392.8

402.9

412.4

419.9

426.7

433.1

439.8

445.9

452.4

458.3

Retail Trade

1002.6

1011.0

1019.1

1027.1

1034.8

1041.4

1050.1

1059.6

1067.1

1072.6

Information

163.4

165.9

168.4

170.3

172.4

175.2

178.2

181.5

185.4

188.8

Prof. & Bus. Services

1858.6

1950.4

2028.0

2087.1

2163.4

2244.8

2316.2

2392.3

2481.6

2569.2

Admin. & Support

1124.1

1175.4

1212.8

1231.7

1267.9

1308.8

1339.6

1374.6

1423.8

1472.7

Prof. Sci & Tech

613.3

649.2

685.6

722.4

758.8

795.4

832.0

869.2

905.3

939.7

Durable Goods

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Mgmt. of Co.

9896.1 10049.7 10218.3 10385.8

9919.8 10090.3

121.2

125.7

129.5

133.0

136.7

140.6

144.6

148.4

152.5

156.8

Financial Activities

508.2

513.6

519.1

524.5

531.4

538.5

545.4

552.8

560.4

568.1

Real Estate & Rent

176.6

178.2

179.8

181.4

183.1

184.7

186.3

187.9

189.5

191.2

Fin. & Insurance

331.7

335.4

339.2

343.2

348.4

353.8

359.2

365.0

370.9

376.9

1368.7

1385.6

1403.2

1420.0

1436.5

1452.9

1470.2

1488.6

1507.8

1525.9

156.9

159.6

161.8

163.4

165.3

167.4

169.4

171.2

173.4

175.7

1211.9

1226.0

1241.4

1256.6

1271.1

1285.4

1300.8

1317.4

1334.4

1350.2

Leisure & Hospitality

957.1

964.5

970.9

975.8

981.2

988.4

997.4

1006.8

1017.1

1024.1

Other Services

335.9

340.7

344.9

349.1

354.0

357.5

360.2

362.9

365.7

368.7

1226.7

1237.3

1247.6

1257.0

1267.2

1277.3

1286.9

1296.3

1305.4

1323.4

135.2

136.6

137.7

138.8

139.8

140.9

142.0

143.1

144.3

155.1

1091.5

1100.7

1109.9

1118.2

1127.3

1136.4

1144.9

1153.1

1161.1

1168.3

Edu. & Health Service Education Services Health Services

Government Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't

Continued

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

19


F l o rida Summary T ab l e s Table 4. Employment Annual 2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm Manufacturing

10571.5 10787.6 10963.8 11106.4 11239.4 11389.2 11535.8 11662.4 11796.4 11927.2 293.2

290.6

287.5

284.6

281.5

278.7

276.1

273.8

272.5

271.9

204.1

202.3

200.1

198.0

195.8

194.0

192.3

191.0

190.5

190.5

Wood Products

10.7

10.8

10.9

10.8

10.8

10.8

10.8

10.8

10.9

10.9

Computer & Electronics

39.7

39.7

39.9

40.1

40.3

40.6

41.0

41.4

41.8

42.3

Transportation Equipment

29.5

28.6

27.8

27.1

26.5

25.9

25.3

24.8

24.3

23.8

Nondurables

89.0

88.2

87.4

86.6

85.7

84.7

83.8

82.9

82.1

81.4

26.1

26.0

25.8

25.7

25.6

25.4

25.3

25.1

25.0

24.8

Durable Goods

Foods Non-Manufacturing

10278.3 10497.0 10676.3 10821.9 10957.9 11110.5 11259.8 11388.6 11523.8 11655.3

Mining

4.0

4.1

4.0

4.0

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.8

Construction

661.6

681.2

700.6

714.8

727.7

741.7

757.1

771.4

786.4

798.4

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

345.1

345.6

346.4

346.3

345.6

345.0

343.5

341.8

339.8

336.9

Wholesale Trade

461.8

463.2

463.9

463.7

463.2

463.0

462.2

461.2

460.9

461.8

Retail Trade

1081.4

1090.4

1100.2

1108.4

1115.8

1124.1

1132.9

1142.6

1152.8

1159.6

Information

193.6

199.4

204.3

207.8

211.0

214.7

219.2

223.7

228.0

231.2

Prof. & Bus. Services

2677.3

2803.4

2897.6

2974.5

3047.6

3132.4

3216.6

3282.7

3351.5

3427.8

Admin. & Support

1539.3

1623.3

1676.4

1710.7

1743.1

1786.6

1829.1

1853.1

1878.6

1903.9

Prof. Sci & Tech

976.7

1014.2

1050.8

1089.0

1125.2

1161.8

1198.8

1236.2

1274.7

1320.8

161.4

165.9

170.4

174.8

179.3

183.9

188.7

193.4

198.3

203.2

Financial Activities

Mgmt. of Co.

577.1

586.4

594.9

602.9

610.6

619.1

626.7

634.0

641.1

644.9

Real Estate & Rent

193.0

194.9

196.7

198.4

200.1

201.9

203.6

205.3

207.0

208.5

Fin. & Insurance

384.0

391.6

398.3

404.5

410.5

417.1

423.1

428.7

434.1

436.4

1546.2

1569.5

1588.2

1603.6

1616.2

1630.6

1643.6

1658.5

1673.0

1686.5

178.1

180.9

183.4

185.4

187.0

188.9

191.2

192.9

194.9

195.6

Health Services

1368.1

1388.5

1404.8

1418.2

1429.2

1441.7

1452.4

1465.6

1478.1

1491.0

Leisure & Hospitality

1035.8

1048.6

1060.6

1070.8

1081.9

1092.1

1102.1

1110.1

1121.0

1124.8

371.1

373.6

376.4

379.1

381.4

384.2

386.1

387.5

389.0

389.7

1323.4

1331.7

1339.0

1346.0

1353.0

1359.7

1366.0

1371.1

1376.6

1389.7

147.8

149.0

150.1

151.3

152.4

153.6

154.7

155.9

156.9

166.4

1175.6

1182.7

1188.9

1194.8

1200.6

1206.1

1211.2

1215.2

1219.7

1223.3

Edu. & Health Service Education Services

Other Services Government Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't

20

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010


F l o rida Summary T ab l e s Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly* 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

709.1

729.6

739.1

747.8

757.4

764.8

774.1

784.3

795.1

806.5

817.6

828.2

837.6

848.9

860.1

871.5

Wages & Salaries

322.8

326.8

328.6

332.0

335.9

339.6

343.9

348.6

353.6

358.2

363.3

368.7

374.6

380.2

385.6

390.9

Other Labor Income

74.1

74.6

75.3

75.7

77.7

78.8

80.0

81.3

82.9

84.2

85.5

86.9

88.4

89.8

91.0

92.4

Nonfarm

40.6

40.0

40.8

41.3

42.0

42.8

43.4

44.2

44.6

45.3

45.7

46.4

46.8

47.5

48.1

48.9

0.5

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

Property Income

176.0

177.2

182.3

185.9

189.1

190.5

193.2

196.8

201.2

206.0

210.6

214.3

218.1

221.6

225.4

229.4

Transfer Payments

Farm

143.7

160.0

162.2

163.4

165.2

166.2

167.2

167.9

169.3

170.0

170.6

170.9

171.5

172.6

173.3

174.2

Social Insurance

50.5

51.3

52.5

53.0

55.0

55.7

56.3

57.0

59.0

59.8

60.8

61.7

64.6

65.5

66.2

67.2

Personal Income

575.6

591.5

597.0

602.0

606.9

610.3

615.0

620.5

626.2

632.4

638.1

643.2

647.4

653.1

658.8

664.5

Wages & Salaries

262.0

264.9

265.4

267.3

269.2

271.0

273.3

275.8

278.5

280.9

283.5

286.4

289.5

292.5

295.3

298.1

Other Labor Income

60.2

60.5

60.8

61.0

62.2

62.9

63.6

64.3

65.3

66.0

66.7

67.5

68.3

69.1

69.7

70.4

Nonfarm

32.9

32.4

32.9

33.3

33.7

34.2

34.5

34.9

35.2

35.5

35.7

36.0

36.2

36.6

36.9

37.3

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.5

Property Income

142.8

143.7

147.2

149.6

151.5

152.0

153.5

155.7

158.5

161.5

164.4

166.4

168.6

170.4

172.7

174.9

Transfer Payments

116.6

129.7

131.0

131.6

132.4

132.6

132.8

132.9

133.3

133.3

133.2

132.8

132.6

132.8

132.8

132.8

41.0

41.6

42.4

42.7

44.0

44.4

44.7

45.1

46.5

46.9

47.4

47.9

49.9

50.4

50.7

51.2

Billions 2000 $

Farm

Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

774.3

721.2

720.3

820.0

890.9

Retail Sales (Billions $)

252.6

253.5

257.5

262.8

266.9

964.1 1034.7 1106.4 1171.1 1198.6 1235.8 1257.1 1298.5 1332.6 1347.5 1359.7 271.0

275.8

281.6

286.3

290.3

293.9

297.2

300.4

303.7

306.5

309.4

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

205.0

205.5

208.0

211.5

213.9

216.2

219.2

222.8

225.5

227.6

229.4

230.8

232.2

233.7

234.8

235.9

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

21


F l o rida Summary T ab l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

508.4

531.2

582.8

633.2

690.3

713.5

719.7

700.4

731.4

Wages & Salaries

250.9

264.5

285.6

310.3

333.1

343.3

339.1

322.1

327.5

Other Labor Income

53.3

59.2

63.3

69.5

72.9

73.6

73.7

73.3

74.9

Nonfarm

34.8

36.3

39.6

42.0

45.1

42.6

41.7

39.6

40.7

1.3

1.1

1.0

1.5

1.2

0.8

0.6

0.5

0.4

123.8

122.8

142.7

156.4

181.7

190.9

191.2

176.2

180.3

Transfer Payments

79.8

84.9

91.3

98.1

104.4

111.5

122.6

136.4

157.3

Social Insurance

37.2

39.0

42.3

46.2

49.9

51.1

51.2

49.5

51.8

Farm Property Income

Billions 2000 $ Personal Income

492.2

504.0

538.8

568.4

603.1

607.2

592.6

575.6

591.5

Wages & Salaries

242.9

251.0

264.1

278.6

291.0

292.2

279.2

264.7

264.9

Other Labor Income

51.6

56.1

58.6

62.4

63.7

62.6

60.7

60.2

60.6

Nonfarm

33.7

34.5

36.6

37.7

39.4

36.3

34.4

32.5

32.9

1.3

1.0

0.9

1.3

1.1

0.7

0.5

0.4

0.3

119.9

116.5

131.9

140.4

158.7

162.4

157.4

144.8

145.8

Transfer Payments

77.3

80.5

84.4

88.0

91.2

94.9

100.9

112.1

127.2

Social Insurance

36.0

37.0

39.1

41.5

43.6

43.5

42.2

40.7

41.9

1302.6

1397.3

1442.7

1449.7

1416.7

1242.2

952.0

734.8

758.9

Retail Sales (Billions $)

196.6

207.4

226.2

246.6

265.3

269.8

262.3

242.6

256.6

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

190.4

196.7

209.1

221.4

231.8

229.6

216.0

199.4

207.5

Farm Property Income

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

22

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

Continued


F l o rida Summary T ab l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

770.2

811.8

854.5

910.1

967.2

1027.0

1088.1

1150.0

1218.4

1290.5

Wages & Salaries

342.0

360.9

382.8

404.7

426.7

450.1

473.2

496.1

520.6

545.5

Other Labor Income

79.4

84.9

90.4

95.9

100.9

106.7

112.9

119.2

125.8

132.6

Nonfarm

43.1

45.5

47.8

50.8

53.4

56.7

60.1

63.9

68.0

72.2

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

Property Income

192.4

208.0

223.6

243.6

265.4

284.1

304.2

323.9

347.7

374.0

Transfer Payments

166.6

170.2

172.9

181.6

192.6

205.4

218.4

232.3

246.7

261.9

56.0

60.3

65.9

69.5

75.0

79.4

84.2

89.1

94.3

99.8

Farm

Social Insurance

Billions 2000 $ Personal Income

613.2

635.0

656.0

685.2

714.2

743.7

772.8

800.6

832.3

865.4

Wages & Salaries

272.3

282.3

293.8

304.7

315.1

325.9

336.1

345.3

355.6

365.8

Other Labor Income

63.2

66.4

69.4

72.2

74.5

77.2

80.2

83.0

86.0

88.9

Nonfarm

34.3

35.6

36.7

38.2

39.5

41.1

42.7

44.5

46.5

48.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.4

Property Income

153.2

162.7

171.6

183.4

195.9

205.7

216.0

225.5

237.5

250.8

Transfer Payments

132.7

133.1

132.7

136.7

142.2

148.7

155.1

161.7

168.5

175.6

44.6

47.2

50.6

52.4

55.4

57.5

59.8

62.0

64.4

66.9

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

999.0

1215.7

1334.6

1404.3

1460.2

1502.9

1482.9

1467.8

1494.8

1536.0

Retail Sales (Billions $)

273.8

291.9

305.0

319.8

339.4

358.8

376.7

395.3

415.9

438.9

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

218.0

228.3

234.1

240.8

250.6

259.8

267.6

275.2

284.1

294.3

Farm

Social Insurance

Continued

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

23


F l o rida Summary T ab l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

1363.6

1438.2

1512.8

1589.2

1671.3

1758.8

1850.6

1944.0

2041.9

2143.6

Wages & Salaries

572.2

601.8

631.4

660.6

693.2

728.3

764.3

802.1

843.3

885.9

Other Labor Income

139.9

147.7

155.7

163.5

171.7

180.7

190.1

199.6

209.9

220.6

76.6

81.2

85.9

90.2

94.9

99.5

104.4

109.6

115.1

120.7

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

Property Income

399.0

419.5

438.6

459.0

480.0

502.6

527.5

551.5

575.6

601.3

Transfer Payments

277.5

295.5

314.5

334.9

356.5

379.2

402.9

426.6

450.8

475.5

Social Insurance

105.9

111.9

117.8

123.7

129.9

136.6

143.6

150.7

158.3

166.1

Nonfarm Farm

Billions 2000 $ Personal Income

898.4

930.9

961.7

991.8

1024.0

1058.1

1093.3

1127.5

1162.7

1198.2

Wages & Salaries

377.0

389.5

401.4

412.3

424.7

438.2

451.5

465.2

480.2

495.2

Other Labor Income

92.2

95.6

99.0

102.0

105.2

108.7

112.3

115.8

119.5

123.3

Nonfarm

50.4

52.5

54.6

56.3

58.1

59.8

61.7

63.6

65.5

67.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.3

Property Income

262.8

271.5

278.9

286.5

294.1

302.4

311.6

319.9

327.8

336.1

Transfer Payments

182.8

191.2

199.9

209.0

218.4

228.2

238.0

247.4

256.7

265.8

69.7

72.4

74.9

77.2

79.6

82.2

84.8

87.4

90.1

92.8

1565.6

1585.6

1595.1

1612.2

1640.5

1662.6

1686.0

1713.0

1729.6

1762.8

Retail Sales (Billions $)

463.2

488.7

514.6

542.0

572.3

604.0

637.6

672.9

708.4

746.3

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

305.2

316.3

327.2

338.3

350.7

363.4

376.6

390.3

403.4

417.2

Farm

Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

24

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

Continued


F l o rida Summary T ab l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

2252.2

2368.7

2486.7

2606.1

2729.3

2859.8

2992.4

3128.3

3268.3

3415.4

Wages & Salaries

932.7

984.0

1033.5

1081.3

1129.8

1182.3

1237.1

1291.3

1347.8

1408.0

Other Labor Income

231.9

245.1

258.0

270.4

282.6

295.5

309.5

323.3

337.5

352.2

Nonfarm

126.6

132.7

139.3

146.4

154.0

162.1

170.4

179.1

188.2

197.7

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

Property Income

628.4

656.1

685.2

717.0

751.3

787.6

822.4

861.1

901.2

943.5

Transfer Payments

500.9

527.7

556.1

585.3

615.2

645.7

676.5

707.9

739.2

771.4

Social Insurance

174.3

183.0

192.1

201.3

210.9

221.0

231.5

242.7

254.3

266.5

Farm

Billions 2000 $ Personal Income

1235.6

1275.4

1313.6

1350.5

1387.7

1426.5

1464.2

1501.1

1537.6

1575.4

Wages & Salaries

511.7

529.8

546.0

560.3

574.4

589.8

605.3

619.6

634.1

649.5

Other Labor Income

127.2

131.9

136.3

140.1

143.7

147.4

151.5

155.1

158.8

162.5

69.4

71.4

73.6

75.9

78.3

80.8

83.4

85.9

88.5

91.2

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

Property Income

344.8

353.3

361.9

371.5

382.0

392.9

402.4

413.2

424.0

435.2

Transfer Payments

274.8

284.1

293.8

303.3

312.8

322.1

331.0

339.7

347.8

355.8

95.6

98.6

101.5

104.3

107.2

110.3

113.3

116.4

119.7

122.9

1802.1

1830.7

1856.6

1886.0

1918.5

1961.5

2004.7

2040.8

2085.4

2123.3

Retail Sales (Billions $)

787.8

830.7

875.6

923.7

974.1

1027.3

1082.9

1141.9

1206.2

1277.6

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

432.2

447.3

462.5

478.6

495.3

512.4

529.9

547.9

567.5

589.3

Nonfarm Farm

Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

25


rida Federal Government Employment (Thousands)

July 2010

F l o rida F O R E C A S T

CHARTS

006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038


F l o rida C hart s

Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate 14.0%

(percent)

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate

Florida Construction Employment 900.0

(Thousands)

800.0 700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

27


F l o rida C hart s

Florida Education & Health Services Employment (Thousands)

1800.0 1600.0 1400.0 1200.0 1000.0 800.0 600.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Florida Federal Government Employment 190.0 180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0

28

(Thousands)

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010


F l o rida C hart s

Florida Financial Activities Employment 650.0

(Thousands)

600.0 550.0 500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Florida Gross State Product 15%

(percent ch. year ago)

11% 7% 2% -2% -6%

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 FL Gross State Product

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

29


F l o rida C hart s

Florida Housing Starts (Thousands)

300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 Total Private Housing Starts

Florida Information Employment (Thousands)

240.0 220.0 200.0 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0

30

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010


F l o rida C hart s

Florida Manufacturing Employment 500.0

(Thousands)

450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0 250.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations 60%

(percent ch. year ago)

40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60%

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

31


F l o rida C hart s

Florida Employment (Thousands)

12000.0 11000.0 10000.0 9000.0 8000.0 7000.0 6000.0 5000.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 Wage & Salary Employment

Florida Personal Income (percent ch. year ago)

8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6%

32

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010


F l o rida C hart s

Florida Population 30000.0

(Thousands)

25000.0 20000.0 15000.0 10000.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Florida Professional & Business Services Employment 3500.0

(Thousands)

3000.0 2500.0 2000.0 1500.0 1000.0 500.0 0.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

33


F l o rida C hart s

Florida Real Gross State Product (percent ch. year ago)

10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6%

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Florida State & Local Government Employment (Thousands)

1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0 700.0

34

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010


F l o rida C hart s

Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment 2000.0

(Thousands)

1900.0 1800.0 1700.0 1600.0 1500.0 1400.0 1300.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Florida Unemployment Rate 14.0%

(percent)

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 Unemployment Rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

35


F l o rida Ne w s Summarie s Florida’s road building fund faces cuts •

• • •

The Florida Legislature may take the funds from the state Transportation Trust Fund, an amount of nearly $460 million, to increase the state’s general revenue fund. The Transportation Trust Fund contains money collected from gas taxes and tag and title fees.

State lawmakers are anticipating a $3.2 billion budget shortfall. Action needs to be taken, as the budget must be balanced.

The House recommends that money be taken from various other funds as well. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, April 20, 2010

Crist signs bill finalizing $6.8B Seminole Tribe gambling compact • • •

Governor Charlie Crist has signed into law a gambling agreement between the state and the Seminole Tribe of Florida.

The compact is valued at $6.8 billion, generating an average of $340 million annually for the next 20 years, all earmarked for education.

The law would allow casino-style gambling on reservation land, while restricting it on non-reservation land. Source: South Florida Business Journal, April 28, 2010

Prime Bank, Florida Bank of Commerce complete merger • • •

Florida Bank of Commerce, of Orlando-based FBC Bancorp Inc., and Melbourne-based Prime Bank completed their merger on May 4th.

The bank will operate under the name Florida Bank of Commerce, and now maintains assets in excess of $247 million.

Officials say that the bank is “well positioned” to grow, and has six branches in three Florida counties.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, May 5, 2010

Crist rejects bill he says would subsidize land developers •

Governor Charlie Crist vetoed House Bill 981, a bill that would have prevented property appraisers from reclassifying agricultural land when it is sold at three or more times the land’s agricultural assessment.

The bill would have allowed agricultural land owners to sell land at these high prices—a sign the seller is not maintaining agricultural use of the land—and still take the tax exemption reserved for agricultural land sales. Crist stated that the bill would have allowed developers to take advantage of a program intended to protect Florida’s farmers from financial pressures to sell.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, May 17, 2010

36

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

BP sends Florida $25M for oil spill recovery •

• • •

BP has sent $25 million to each of the four Gulf Coast states affected by the oil spill.

The funds are intended to help prepare for and recover from the disaster. Governor Crist expressed his dissatisfaction with the oil containment strategy, stating it was not “aggressive enough for his liking.”

Gulf Coast counties will be using the funds on techniques such as boom deployment.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, May 5, 2010 Florida No. 2 for delinquent mortgages •

• •

Florida’s delinquency rate of 14.65% puts the state at second highest in the country in mortgage delinquencies. Nevada has the highest delinquency rate, with 15.98%. Florida is expected to surpass Nevada by the end of the year, with a rate reaching upwards of 18.2%.

According to the latest data from TransUnion, the national ratio of borrowers 60 days or more past due on their mortgages was down in the 1st quarter of 2010 from the 4th quarter of 2009.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, May 10, 2010 Florida gets $66.6M for high-speed rail •

• • •

Florida has received a federal grant from the U.S. Department of Transportation to help develop a new high-speed rail system that will run between Orlando and Tampa.

The $66.6 million grant is part of the nearly $80 million in grant money Florida and four other states received through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. Officials say that the grant will cover the next six months of work on the project, completing 30% of the OrlandoTampa segment of the rail system. The Orlando-Miami segment is estimated to cost $8 billion.

Source: South Florida Business Journal, May 28, 2010 $100 million sought for oil spill research • •

U.S. Representative Kathy Castor, D-Tampa, is asking BP for $100 million in research funds.

The money would go to Florida universities for continued research on the Gulf oil spill. The amount was determined by scientists from a Florida university task force as the amount required to study the ecological impact. Castor notes that BP has already pledged $500 million to universities in the Gulf Coast states for spill-related academic research.

Source: The Miami Herald, June 3, 2010


July 2010

M etr o s

F l o rida F O R E C A S T


D e l t o n a – D ayt o n a B each – Orm o n d B each

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Summarie s

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is comprised only of Volusia County. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway, which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500.

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is expected to show modest growth in most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast. Personal income is expected to average 4.9 percent growth, while the per capita income level will be 27.9. Average annual wage will be the lowest level in the state at 38.5. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.7 percent. Population growth will be the lowest in the state at 0.2 percent. Gross Metro Product will also be one of the lowest in the state at 12,068.35 (Mill). The employment growth rate is expected to average 1.2 percent each year. The unemployment rate will be one of the worst in the state, averaging 11.1 percent annually. The Deltona MSA will experience the most growth in the Professional and Business Services sector, with an average growth rate of 3.1 percent annually. The Manufacturing sector will see the second highest growth in the MSA, at 3.0 percent annually. The Education and Health Services sector follows with an annual growth rate of 1.8 percent. The Federal Government sector is the only sector that will experience a decline, with an annual growth rate of -2.8 percent.

Quick Facts:

• Metro population estimate of 495,890 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 253,007 in April 2010 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• An unemployment rate of 11.9% as of April 2010, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 30,147 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• Volusia County Schools – 8,273 employees • Daytona State College – 4,589 employees • Halifax Health – 4,232 employees

• Florida Hospital (all divisions) – 3,717 employees • Volusia County Government – 3,519 employees

M etr o Ne w s Summarie s

• Publix – 2,415 employees

Two decades later, Rose Bay to return to former health

• State of Florida – 2,423 employees • Walmart – 2,139 employees

• U.S. Government – 1,434 employees

• Embry Riddle Aeronautical University – 1,198 employees Source: Department of Economic Development, Volusia County

38

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

• The final phase of the restoration project of Volusia’s Rose Bay is ready to begin. The project is predicted to have a total cost of $50 million, with the third and final phase costing $10 million.

• The expansion of US 1 had prevented waters from flowing freely, resulting in dark, foul water. The US 1 bridge was rebuilt, as part of the restoration project, to allow the water to move without restraint between bays.


D e l t o n a – D ayt o n a B each – Orm o n d B each

• A new stormwater system was also rebuilt to prevent pollutants from streaming into the bay. Sewer systems are replacing septic tanks in nearby homes and communities. Source: Orlando Sentinel, May 4, 2010

Class size rules strain budget

• Volusia County School District is expected to limit their class sizes to 18-25 students. The schools could be fined anywhere from $2,610 to $3,015 for each student in a class that is out of compliance with new class size rules. • The schools will have to hire an additional 177 teachers at a cost of $10.5 million to meet the terms of the Florida law.

• The School Board has slashed more than $54 million from its budget over the last two years as state funding declined, the tax roll decreased, and enrollment fell. • Due to cuts in state funding, federal stimulus money, and property tax, income for Volusia County Schools will decrease by $4.9 million to an expected $413.6 million for the 2010-2011 school year.

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, May 12, 2010

Congressman urges unity on jobs creation

• Volusia County officials remain divided on economic development issues. More than 40 businessmen and public officials attended the meeting called by U.S. Representative John Mica.

Embry Riddle honored by Boeing

• The Boeing Co. named Embry Riddle Aeronautical University, along with 13 other organizations, one of the winners of the 2009 Supplier of the Year Award.

• Embry Riddle qualified for this award when Boeing recognized the University as one of its 486 Boeing Performance Excellence Award recipients.

• Embry Riddle was the winner of the Academia category, due to the work of Professor John French.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, May 13, 2010

Schools in line for federal grants

• The Flagler and Volusia County School Districts have put themselves in the running for the second round of Race to the Top federal grants.

• Low teacher union participation has been cited as a reason why Florida was not granted funding during the first round. Florida was ranked 4th of 41 states in that round.

• Florida Governor Charlie Crist appointed Volusia County’s School Board Chairwoman to rewrite the application for federal funding. Source: The Daytona Beach News Journal, June 1, 2010

• One group, headed by a retired Chamber of Commerce president, supports creating an entirely new engine of economic development. On the other side of the divide is Volusia County Chairman Frank Bruno, who directs the county’s current program. • Mica departed with a project list including an east-side stop next to the commuter rail line and money to restore the DeBary Bayou. Mica hopes for unification of both sides.

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, May 12, 2010 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

39


D e l t o n a – D ayt o n a B each – Orm o n d B each

Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

0.4

(percent)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate

260.0 240.0 220.0 200.0 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product 30000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

25000.0 20000.0 15000.0 10000.0 5000.0

40

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Gross Metro Product Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment

Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

0.6

(Thousands)

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Deltona Payroll Employment

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0%

(percent change year ago)

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Personal Income


D e l t o n a – D ayt o n a B each – Orm o n d B each

Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

16.4 5.8 5.7 10.6 13.2 4.2 33.1 26.7 37.1 3.4

16.6 5.8 5.8 10.8 13.3 4.5 33.5 27 37.4 3.2

16.8 6.4 5.8 10.9 13.4 5 34 27.2 37.7 3.1

16.9 5.1 5.9 11 13.5 3.5 34.3 27.4 37.9 2.7

17.2 4.8 6 11.2 13.6 3.1 34.8 27.6 38.1 2.5

17.4 4.9 6 11.3 13.7 3.1 35.2 27.9 38.3 2.3

17.6 4.9 6.1 11.5 13.9 3.1 35.7 28.1 38.5 2.2

17.9 5.4 6.2 11.7 14 3.6 36.1 28.3 38.7 2.2

18.1 5.6 6.3 11.8 14.1 3.7 36.6 28.6 39 2.3

18.3 5.5 6.4 12 14.2 3.6 37 28.7 39.2 2.4

18.5 5.2 6.5 12 14.3 3.2 37.2 28.8 39.5 2.6

18.7 4.8 6.6 12.2 14.4 2.9 37.6 28.9 39.8 2.8

19 4.7 6.6 12.3 14.5 2.8 37.9 29.1 40.1 2.9

19.2 4.7 6.7 12.5 14.6 2.8 38.3 29.2 40.4 2.9

155.8 1.6 8 4.4 147.8 1.5 7.7 -1.3 29.8 0.5 5 22.7 2.2 2.3 3.9 6.9 1.7 17.8 7.2 32.7 2.5 20.5 -0.2 8.6 1.1 1.3 -3.2 20.2 -0.4

156.8 2.1 8.1 4.6 148.7 2 7.8 1.3 30.1 1.2 5 22.9 2.2 2.3 3.6 7 3.6 18 6.3 32.9 2.9 20.4 0 8.6 1.2 1.3 -1.1 20.3 0.1

157.7 2.3 8.3 5.5 149.5 2.2 7.9 4.1 30.3 2 5.1 23 2.2 2.3 3.2 7 3.8 18.1 4.6 33 2.8 20.5 0.4 8.6 0.8 1.3 -0.8 20.3 0.5

159 2.6 8.4 5.6 150.6 2.5 8.1 6.1 30.6 3.1 5.1 23.2 2.3 2.3 3 7.1 3.4 18.2 3.6 33.2 2.6 20.7 1.1 8.6 0.6 1.3 -0.8 20.4 1

160.2 2.8 8.5 5.5 151.7 2.7 8.3 7 30.9 3.5 5.2 23.4 2.3 2.4 3.3 7.1 3 18.4 3.5 33.4 2.1 20.9 2 8.7 0.7 1.3 -0.4 20.5 1.4

161.4 2.9 8.5 5 152.9 2.8 8.4 7.7 31.2 3.6 5.3 23.5 2.3 2.4 3.5 7.1 2.4 18.7 3.8 33.5 1.8 21 2.8 8.7 0.8 1.3 0 20.6 1.7

162.6 3.1 8.6 4.5 153.9 3 8.6 8.7 31.4 3.7 5.3 23.6 2.4 2.4 3.7 7.2 1.8 19 4.9 33.5 1.7 21.1 2.8 8.7 0.9 1.3 0.2 20.7 1.9

163.8 3 8.7 4 155.1 3 8.8 8.8 31.7 3.6 5.4 23.8 2.4 2.4 3.8 7.2 1.4 19.3 5.9 33.7 1.5 21.2 2.3 8.7 0.8 1.3 0.1 20.8 2

164.8 2.9 8.7 3.4 156 2.8 9 8.6 31.9 3.4 5.4 23.9 2.4 2.4 3.7 7.2 1.1 19.6 6.1 33.8 1.2 21.2 1.7 8.7 0.6 1.3 0 20.9 2.1

165.7 2.6 8.8 2.8 156.9 2.6 9.1 8.2 32.1 2.9 5.5 24.1 2.4 2.5 3.4 7.2 0.9 19.9 6.2 33.8 1 21.3 1.2 8.7 0.4 1.3 -0.1 21 2.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

153.3 -1 7.7 -0.3 145.7 -1 7.8 -9.7 29.7 -0.8 4.9 22.5 2.1 2.2 -5.6 6.8 -3.3 16.6 -1.4 31.9 2.1 20.5 0.2 8.5 0.5 1.3 -6 20.3 -2.3

153.6 -0.5 7.8 3.1 145.8 -0.7 7.7 -6.6 29.7 -0.1 4.8 22.5 2.1 2.2 -3.6 6.7 -2.6 16.9 0.6 32 1.9 20.5 -1.8 8.5 0.4 1.3 -8.4 20.2 -2

154.1 -0.2 7.8 3.8 146.3 -0.4 7.6 -6.3 29.7 -0.5 4.8 22.6 2.1 2.3 0.8 6.8 -1.1 17.3 4.1 32.1 1 20.5 -2.5 8.6 1 1.3 -8.8 20.2 -1.6

154.9 0.9 7.9 4.2 147 0.8 7.6 -5.2 29.7 0 4.9 22.6 2.1 2.3 3.2 6.8 0.5 17.6 7 32.4 2 20.5 0 8.6 1 1.3 -11.6 20.2 -1.2

11537.1 11602.6 11668.5 11755.2 11867.6 494.4 494.2 493.8 493.4 493.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 255.9 256.5 257 257.3 257.8 1.3 1 0.5 0.9 0.7 12.8 12.8 12.5 12.1 11.8 959 1109 1600 2087 2600 1078 1163 1430 1862 2326 -119 -54 169 225 274

11977 12078.5 12201.3 12324.5 12445.9 12538.5 12647.5 12751.9 12846.8 493.3 493.6 494.2 495 495.9 497 498.3 499.7 501.2 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 1 1.1 258.3 258.8 259.1 259.1 259.7 260.4 261.2 262 262.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.2 11.4 11 10.6 10.2 9.9 9.5 9.2 9 8.8 2995 3359 3678 3975 4092 4146 4305 4405 4421 2729 3004 3285 3525 3579 3591 3716 3783 3772 267 355 393 449 513 555 589 622 649

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

41


D e l t o n a – D ayt o n a B each – Orm o n d B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

12.2 4.5 4.7 7.5

13.4 9.6 5.1 8.3

14.3 6.3 5.5 8.8

15.3 7.2 5.9 9.3

15.9 3.9 6.1 9.8

16 0.4 6 10

15.6 -2.6 5.7 9.9

16.2 4.2 5.7 10.5

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

11.6 2.5

12.4 6.8

12.8 3.2

13.4 4.4

13.5 1.2

13.1 -2.8

12.8 -2.8

13.1 2.6

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

26.2 24.8

28.1 26

29.3 26.3

30.9 27

31.9 27.1

32.1 26.4

31.4 25.8

32.8 26.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

29.8 3.9

31 4.1

32 3.4

34 6.1

35.1 3.3

35.7 1.6

36 0.8

37 2.8

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

157.6 3.1

164.4 4.3

170.8 3.9

173.9 1.8

172.5 -0.8

166.8 -3.3

156.5 -6.2

153.7 -1.8

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

9.4 -1.5

9.8 3.9

10.2 4.3

10.6 3.9

10.3 -2.6

9.1 -12.2

7.8 -14.4

7.7 -1.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

148.1 3.5

154.6 4.4

160.6 3.9

163.3 1.6

162.1 -0.7

157.7 -2.7

148.8 -5.7

146.1 -1.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

11.5 7.9

12.9 12.8

14.8 14.5

15.9 7.3

14.2 -10.4

11.3 -20.2

8.8 -22.2

7.9 -10

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

31.5 1.6

32 1.7

33.2 3.7

33.2 0

33.6 1.1

32.5 -3.3

30 -7.5

29.7 -1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.6 24.3 2.6

4.7 25 2.3

4.8 26 2.4

5 25.9 2.4

5.3 25.8 2.5

5.2 24.8 2.4

4.9 23 2.1

4.9 22.6 2.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.3 -7.6

2.3 -2.5

2.2 -3.3

2.4 8.3

2.5 5.2

2.6 3.6

2.4 -9.2

2.2 -6.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.5 1.2

6.9 7.2

7.3 5.5

7.9 7.2

8 2.2

7.7 -4.1

7 -8.7

6.8 -3.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

16.4 6.8

18.1 10.4

19.6 8.1

19.4 -0.9

18 -7.1

17.4 -3.2

17.3 -1

16.7 -3.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

30.1 6.7

30.7 1.9

30.5 -0.7

30.5 0.2

30.6 0.2

31.9 4.2

31.3 -1.6

31.8 1.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

20 2.2

21.1 5.3

21.7 2.9

21.6 -0.4

22.6 4.6

22.5 -0.2

21 -6.5

20.6 -2.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.8 2.9

8.2 4

8.2 0.1

8.3 1.2

8.1 -1.7

8.2 1

8.5 3.8

8.5 -0.3

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 2.4

1.4 0

1.4 1.2

1.4 -0.6

1.4 -0.6

1.4 0

1.4 1.8

1.4 -4.3

20.7 0.5

21.1 2.1

21.8 3.6

22.8 4.4

23.1 1.4

22.2 -4

20.9 -5.9

20.4 -2.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

9917.4

10522.9

11360

11825.5

11769.9

11590.1

11163.9

11497.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

467.5 1.8

477.7 2.2

486.9 1.9

494.6 1.6

498.2 0.7

497.2 -0.2

495.7 -0.3

494.6 -0.2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

226.8 2.7

232.7 2.6

242.7 4.3

247.6 2

251.2 1.4

254.2 1.2

253.9 -0.1

255.8 0.7

5.2

4.5

3.6

3.2

4

6.5

11

12.9

6170 4987 1183

6178 4777 1401

6360 5118 1242

4133 3100 1033

2209 1585 624

1364 1035 329

752 692 60

998 1004 -7

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

42

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

Continued


D e l t o n a – D ayt o n a B each – Orm o n d B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

18 5.3 6.2 11.7

18.9 4.9 6.6 12.3

20 6.3 6.9 13.1

21.3 6.3 7.3 14

22.6 6.3 7.7 15

24 6.2 8 16

25.4 5.9 8.4 17

27 6.1 8.8 18.2

28.6 6 9.2 19.4

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

14.1 3.5

14.5 2.9

15.1 4.2

15.7 4.2

16.4 4.2

17.1 4.1

17.7 3.8

18.4 4.1

19.2 4

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

36.3 28.4

37.8 29

39.7 29.9

41.7 30.8

43.7 31.6

45.7 32.5

47.7 33.2

49.8 34

51.9 34.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

38.9 2.3

39.9 2.8

41.2 3

42.4 3.1

43.8 3.2

45.2 3.2

46.6 3.2

48.1 3.2

49.6 3.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

159.6 2.7

164.2 2.9

167.8 2.2

171 1.9

174.2 1.9

176.9 1.6

179.4 1.4

181.9 1.4

184.5 1.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

8.4 5.4

8.7 3.7

8.8 1.4

8.8 0

8.8 -0.5

8.7 -0.5

8.7 -0.5

8.7 -0.7

8.6 -0.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

151.2 2.5

155.5 2.9

158.9 2.2

162.1 2

165.4 2

168.2 1.7

170.7 1.5

173.3 1.5

175.9 1.5

8.2 6.2

8.9 8.6

9.3 5.1

9.6 2.7

9.9 3.1

10.2 2.9

10.4 2.6

10.6 1.4

10.8 1.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

30.7 3.1

31.8 3.4

32.4 2

32.9 1.5

33.1 0.7

33.3 0.4

33.5 0.7

33.8 0.9

34.1 0.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.2 23.3 2.3

5.4 23.9 2.4

5.6 24.2 2.5

5.7 24.4 2.5

5.8 24.4 2.6

5.9 24.4 2.7

6 24.4 2.7

6.1 24.6 2.8

6.2 24.7 2.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.4 3.3

2.4 3.6

2.5 2.3

2.5 1.9

2.6 2.1

2.7 2.3

2.7 1.8

2.8 1.8

2.8 1.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.1 3.1

7.2 1.3

7.2 0.6

7.3 0.8

7.3 0.7

7.4 0.6

7.4 0.3

7.5 0.6

7.5 0.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

18.4 3.9

19.4 5.8

20.5 5.4

21.7 5.7

23 6

24.1 4.9

24.9 3.6

25.9 4

26.9 3.9

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

33.3 2.3

33.7 1.3

34.3 1.8

35 2.1

36 2.7

36.8 2.2

37.5 2.1

38.3 2

39.1 2.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

20.8 1.6

21.2 2

21.3 0.5

21.3 0.1

21.3 0.1

21.3 -0.1

21.3 -0.2

21.3 0.1

21.2 -0.4

8.7 0.7

8.7 0.6

8.8 0.9

8.9 0.8

8.9 0.6

9 0.6

9 0.3

9 0.4

9.1 0.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.3 -0.5

1.3 0.1

1.3 0.5

1.3 0.8

1.3 1.2

1.3 1.3

1.3 1.3

1.4 1.5

1.5 12.4

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

20.5 1.1

20.9 2

21.3 1.9

21.6 1.7

21.9 1.4

22.2 1.4

22.5 1.2

22.8 1.2

23 0.9

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

12262.5

12696.2

13160.8

13628.8

14123.8

14588.2

15052.1

15552.6

16060.4

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

494.7 0.3

499 0.9

504.8 1.2

510.8 1.2

518 1.4

525.3 1.4

533.1 1.5

542 1.7

551 1.7

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

259.2 0.6

261.6 0.9

264.7 1.2

269.1 1.7

273.5 1.6

277.7 1.6

282 1.6

286.4 1.5

290.4 1.4

Unemployment Rate (%)

10.4

9.1

8.3

8

7.6

7.2

6.8

6.5

6.1

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3776 3348 428

4319 3716 604

4453 3734 719

4601 3748 853

4799 3834 965

4884 3861 1023

4923 3882 1042

5021 3927 1094

5078 3954 1124

Continued

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

43


D e l t o n a – D ayt o n a B each – Orm o n d B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

30.2 5.6 9.6 20.6

31.8 5.4 10.1 21.7

33.5 5.1 10.5 22.9

35.1 5 11 24.1

36.9 5.1 11.5 25.4

38.8 5.1 12.1 26.8

40.8 5.2 12.6 28.2

42.8 4.9 13.2 29.6

44.9 4.9 13.8 31.1

47.1 4.8 14.5 32.6

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

19.9 3.8

20.6 3.5

21.3 3.3

21.9 3.1

22.6 3.1

23.3 3.2

24.1 3.3

24.8 3

25.6 2.9

26.3 2.9

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

53.9 35.5

55.9 36.2

57.8 36.8

59.8 37.3

61.8 37.8

63.9 38.4

66.1 39.1

68.3 39.6

70.5 40.1

72.7 40.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

51.2 3.1

52.8 3.1

54.4 3.1

56 3

57.8 3.1

59.6 3.2

61.6 3.3

63.6 3.2

65.6 3.3

67.8 3.3

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

187.1 1.4

190.2 1.7

193 1.5

195.5 1.3

198.2 1.4

201.1 1.5

204 1.4

206.9 1.4

210 1.5

213 1.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

8.5 -1.5

8.3 -1.9

8.1 -2.1

8 -1.8

7.9 -1.5

7.8 -1.3

7.7 -1.2

7.6 -1.2

7.5 -1

7.4 -0.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

178.6 1.5

181.9 1.8

184.9 1.7

187.5 1.4

190.3 1.5

193.4 1.6

196.3 1.5

199.3 1.5

202.5 1.6

205.6 1.5

11 2

11.2 2.2

11.5 2.2

11.7 1.9

11.9 2

12.2 2.6

12.5 2.1

12.7 1.6

12.9 1.6

13.1 1.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

34.4 0.9

34.9 1.6

35.5 1.5

35.9 1.3

36.4 1.2

36.8 1.1

37.2 1.2

37.7 1.2

38.1 1.1

38.4 0.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

6.4 24.8 2.8

6.6 25.1 2.9

6.7 25.3 3

6.9 25.6 3

7 25.8 3.1

7.1 26 3.2

7.3 26.3 3.2

7.4 26.5 3.3

7.5 26.7 3.3

7.7 26.9 3.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.8 1.6

2.9 2

2.9 1.9

3 1.5

3 1.6

3.1 1.9

3.2 2.1

3.2 2.2

3.3 2.5

3.4 2.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.5 0.4

7.6 1.2

7.7 1.1

7.8 1.1

7.9 1.4

8 1.4

8.1 1.4

8.2 1.4

8.3 1.4

8.4 1.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

28.2 4.8

29.5 4.6

30.6 3.7

31.4 2.7

32.5 3.4

33.7 3.6

34.7 3

35.8 3.2

37.1 3.6

38.3 3.4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

39.6 1.4

40.2 1.4

40.8 1.4

41.3 1.3

41.8 1.3

42.4 1.3

42.9 1.3

43.5 1.4

44.1 1.4

44.7 1.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

21.2 0

21.3 0.5

21.4 0.3

21.4 0.2

21.5 0.2

21.6 0.4

21.7 0.5

21.8 0.6

21.9 0.7

22 0.3

9.2 1.2

9.3 1.6

9.5 1.4

9.6 1.3

9.7 1.5

9.8 1.1

9.9 0.9

10 0.8

10.1 0.9

10.2 0.9

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 -7.5

1.4 1.5

1.5 1.3

1.5 1.3

1.5 1.3

1.5 1.3

1.5 1.3

1.5 1.3

1.6 1.3

1.7 8.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

23.2 1

23.4 1

23.7 1.1

23.9 0.9

24.2 1

24.4 0.9

24.6 0.9

24.8 0.9

25 0.9

25.2 0.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

16572.5

17143.2

17710.5

18273.4

18879.2

19479.7

20062

20652.9

21266.4

21920.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

560 1.6

569.3 1.6

578.6 1.6

588 1.6

597.6 1.6

607.3 1.6

617.2 1.6

627.1 1.6

637.1 1.6

647 1.6

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

294.1 1.3

297.7 1.3

301.6 1.3

305.6 1.3

309.9 1.4

314.7 1.6

319.8 1.6

324.9 1.6

330.2 1.6

335.4 1.6

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

44

5.9

5.8

5.7

5.7

5.8

5.9

5.9

5.9

6

6

5016 3906 1110

5065 3948 1117

5079 3983 1097

5108 4038 1070

5169 4122 1047

5200 4162 1037

5111 4088 1023

4981 3975 1007

4890 3908 981

4899 3937 962

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010


D e l t o n a – D ayt o n a B each – Orm o n d B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

49.3 4.8 15.2 34.1

51.8 4.9 16 35.8

54.2 4.8 16.8 37.5

56.8 4.6 17.5 39.3

59.4 4.6 18.2 41.1

62.1 4.6 19 43.1

64.8 4.4 19.8 45

67.7 4.4 20.6 47

70.6 4.3 21.5 49.1

73.7 4.3 22.4 51.3

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

27.1 2.9

27.9 3

28.7 2.8

29.4 2.6

30.2 2.6

31 2.6

31.7 2.4

32.5 2.4

33.2 2.3

34 2.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

75.1 41.2

77.6 41.8

80.1 42.3

82.6 42.8

85.1 43.3

87.8 43.8

90.4 44.2

93 44.6

95.7 45

98.5 45.4

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

70 3.3

72.4 3.3

74.7 3.2

77 3.1

79.4 3.1

81.9 3.1

84.4 3.1

87 3.1

89.6 3

92.4 3.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

216.4 1.6

220.3 1.8

223.5 1.5

226.1 1.2

228.6 1.1

231.2 1.2

233.9 1.1

236.2 1

238.7 1

241.1 1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

7.4 -0.7

7.3 -0.7

7.3 -0.9

7.2 -0.9

7.1 -1

7.1 -0.8

7 -0.8

7 -0.7

7 -0.3

7 -0.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

209 1.7

213 1.9

216.3 1.6

218.9 1.2

221.4 1.1

224.2 1.2

226.9 1.2

229.3 1.1

231.8 1.1

234.2 1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

13.4 2.5

13.8 2.6

14.1 2.4

14.3 1.6

14.5 1.4

14.7 1.5

15 1.6

15.2 1.4

15.4 1.4

15.6 1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

38.8 0.9

39.1 0.9

39.5 0.9

39.8 0.7

40 0.6

40.3 0.7

40.6 0.7

40.9 0.7

41.2 0.8

41.4 0.7

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

7.8 27.1 3.3

7.8 27.4 3.4

7.9 27.6 3.4

7.9 27.9 3.4

7.9 28.1 3.4

7.9 28.3 3.4

7.9 28.6 3.4

8 28.8 3.4

8 29.1 3.4

8 29.3 3.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.5 2.9

3.6 3.4

3.7 2.8

3.8 2.1

3.8 1.9

3.9 2.1

4 2.4

4.1 2.4

4.2 2.3

4.3 1.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.6 1.6

8.7 1.7

8.9 1.5

9 1.4

9.1 1.3

9.2 1.4

9.3 1.3

9.5 1.2

9.6 1.1

9.6 0.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

39.8 4

41.6 4.5

42.9 3.2

44 2.5

45 2.3

46.2 2.6

47.4 2.5

48.3 1.9

49.2 1.9

50.3 2.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

45.4 1.5

46.1 1.6

46.7 1.3

47.2 1.1

47.7 0.9

48.1 1

48.6 0.9

49.1 1

49.6 1

50 0.9

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

22.2 0.8

22.4 0.9

22.5 0.8

22.7 0.6

22.8 0.7

23 0.6

23.1 0.5

23.2 0.4

23.3 0.6

23.3 0

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

10.3 0.8

10.4 0.8

10.4 0.8

10.5 0.8

10.6 0.7

10.7 0.8

10.7 0.5

10.8 0.4

10.8 0.4

10.8 0.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.6 -5.4

1.6 1.3

1.7 1.3

1.7 1.3

1.7 1.3

1.7 1.3

1.7 1.3

1.8 1.2

1.8 1.2

1.9 7.1

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

25.4 0.8

25.6 0.8

25.8 0.7

26 0.6

26.1 0.6

26.3 0.6

26.5 0.6

26.6 0.5

26.7 0.5

26.9 0.5

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

22612.9

23330.8

24039.6

24741.5

25446.6

26199

26986.4

27767.5

28605.3

29509.8

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

657 1.5

667 1.5

677.1 1.5

687.1 1.5

697 1.5

707.1 1.4

717.2 1.4

727.4 1.4

737.7 1.4

748 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

340.7 1.6

346.1 1.6

351.4 1.5

356.8 1.5

362.2 1.5

367.6 1.5

373.1 1.5

378.6 1.5

384.2 1.5

389.7 1.4

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

6.1

6.1

6.2

6.2

6.3

6.3

6.3

6.4

6.4

6.5

4862 3919 943

4745 3812 933

4692 3782 910

4704 3815 889

4713 3852 861

4693 3870 824

4620 3835 786

4543 3785 758

4504 3767 737

4457 3742 715

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

45


G ai n e s v i l l e

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Summarie s

The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist counties and is located in the northcentral portion of the state. This metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history museum.

The Gainesville MSA is expected to show modest growth in all of the economic indicators measured in this forecast, relative to the state. Personal income growth will be one of the lowest in the state, averaging 4.5 percent, while per capita income level is expected to average 28.8. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.8 percent, while the average annual wage level will be 41.6. Population growth will average 0.8 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be the second lowest in the state at a level of 7,858.75 (Mill). Gainesville will see an employment growth rate of 1.1 percent annually. The Gainesville MSA will maintain the lowest unemployment rate in the state, at 7.2 percent. The fastest growing sector in the area will be the Professional and Business Services sector, with an average growth rate of 4.5 percent annually. This is followed by the Manufacturing and the Education and Health Services sectors, both with average annual growth rates of 1.9 percent. The Federal Government sector is the only sector that will experience a decline, with an annual growth rate of -0.4 percent.

Quick Facts:

• Metro population estimate of 260,690 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Alachua County population estimate of 243,574 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Gilchrist County population estimate of 17,116 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• A civilian labor force of 143,303 in April 2010 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• An unemployment rate of 7.5% as of April 2010, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 10,760 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

M etr o Ne w s Summarie s

• Shands Hospital – 12,588 employees

County approves contribution of $625,000 to buy river land

• University of Florida – 14,723 employees • Veterans Affairs Medical Center – 4,317 employees • Alachua County School Board – 4,299 employees • City of Gainesville – 2,200 employees

• Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 2,056 employees

• North Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,700 employees

• Nationwide Insurance Company – 1,300 employees • Alachua County Government – 1,120 employees • Santa Fe Community College - 796 employees

Source: University of Florida and Gainesville Council for Economic Outreach

46

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

• Alachua County will use Wild Spaces Public Places money to help purchase 445 acres of land along the Santa Fe River as part of its Alachua County Forever conservation program.

• The property will be purchased for a total of $2.5 million, with the remainder of the funds provided by the water management district.

• The property is currently owned by Osceola Land & Timber Corporation. Source: The Gainesville Sun, April 28, 2010


G ai n e s v i l l e

Several new businesses defy economy in High Springs

• Five new businesses have opened in High Springs’ historic downtown district, an increase in store fronts of approximately 10%. • The new businesses include retail stores, a new restaurant, and a realty company.

• Business owners are confident that their businesses will see success in the new locations. Source: The Gainesville Sun, May 3, 2010

How Alachua County will handle school budget cuts

• Alachua County’s public school budget has been decreased by $1.4 million for the 2010-2011 school year, less than the predicted decrease of $7 to $10 million.

‘Forward Together’

• The University of Florida announced a $580 million plan to expand its cooperation with Shands Hospital in order to help establish UF as one of the country’s top medical research institutions. • Authors of the plan hope that the community will benefit from the ripple effect of the investment in the local economy.

• The expansion will create up to 300 new faculty positions and will focus on expanding research, education, and physical facilities, and improving patient safety and quality of care. Source: The Gainesville Sun, May 23, 2010

• Alachua County faces a cut in state funding of $37.38 per student, but district officials do not anticipate any teacher layoffs, and will hire about 150 new teachers in the fall.

• Superintendant Dave Boyd claims that Alachua County’s One-Mill referendum saved the budget, and without it the county would be facing a much greater budget gap. Source: The Gainesville Sun, May 6, 2010

City votes to issue bonds for Continuum

• The Gainesville City Commission will issue up to $82 million in bonds to fund the building of The Continuum, an apartment complex designed for the University of Florida’s graduate and professional students. • The project is expected to have a total cost of about $75 million.

• UF will have the option of buying the apartment complex after the debt on the property has been paid off. • Controversy exists over whether the apartments, built by non-profit Provident Resource Group, will be on the county’s tax rolls. Source: The Gainesville Sun, May 18, 2010

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

47


G ai n e s v i l l e Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.5

Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate (percent)

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

1

2

2.5

3

Gainesville Payroll Employment 170.0

(Thousands)

160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate

110.0

Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product 16000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

14000.0 12000.0 10000.0 8000.0 6000.0 4000.0

48

1.5

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Gross Metro Product Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Gainesville Payroll Employment

Gainesville Real Personal Income 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Personal Income


G ai n e s v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

9.1 6 5.2 4 7.4 4.5 34.7 28 40.2 3.4

9.2 5.5 5.2 4 7.4 4.2 35 28.2 40.5 3.2

9.3 5.8 5.2 4.1 7.5 4.4 35.4 28.4 40.8 3.2

9.4 4 5.3 4.1 7.5 2.4 35.7 28.4 41 2.8

9.5 4.1 5.3 4.2 7.5 2.4 36 28.6 41.2 2.7

9.6 4.2 5.4 4.2 7.6 2.4 36.3 28.7 41.5 2.4

9.7 4.2 5.4 4.3 7.7 2.4 36.7 28.9 41.7 2.3

9.8 4.6 5.5 4.3 7.7 2.8 37 29 42 2.4

9.9 4.8 5.6 4.4 7.8 2.9 37.4 29.2 42.2 2.4

10.1 4.8 5.6 4.4 7.8 2.9 37.7 29.3 42.5 2.6

10.2 4.5 5.7 4.5 7.8 2.6 37.9 29.3 42.9 2.8

10.3 4.4 5.8 4.5 7.9 2.4 38.2 29.4 43.2 2.9

10.4 4.3 5.8 4.5 7.9 2.4 38.6 29.5 43.5 3

10.5 4.3 5.9 4.6 8 2.4 38.9 29.6 43.8 3.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

127.7 0.8 3.9 -1.1 123.8 0.9 4.4 -4.6 18.1 -0.4 2.5 13.1 2.4 1.5 -5 5.8 -1.3 10.7 2.6 23.2 3.9 13.2 0 4.5 0.6 4.5 5 38 0.3

127.5 0.1 4 1.2 123.5 0.1 4.3 -5.3 18.1 0.8 2.5 13.1 2.4 1.5 -1.9 5.8 -2.1 10.9 3.8 23.3 1.9 13.1 -1.7 4.5 -0.6 4.4 1.6 37.8 -0.7

127.7 0 4 4.1 123.7 -0.1 4.2 -6.7 18 0.3 2.5 13.1 2.4 1.5 1.2 5.8 -1.8 11.1 4.4 23.3 1.5 13.1 -0.2 4.5 0 4.3 -2.3 37.7 -1.2

128 -0.2 4.1 4.3 124 -0.4 4.2 -5.6 18 -0.4 2.5 13.1 2.4 1.5 2.8 5.9 0.3 11.3 6.8 23.5 1.6 13.1 -0.4 4.5 0.6 4.3 -11.9 37.6 -1.7

128.5 0.6 4.1 4.5 124.4 0.5 4.3 -1.9 18.1 0.1 2.5 13.1 2.5 1.6 3.5 5.9 1.5 11.4 7 23.7 2 13.1 -0.5 4.5 0.6 4.3 -5.3 37.6 -1

129.1 1.2 4.2 4.8 124.9 1.1 4.3 0.4 18.2 0.9 2.5 13.2 2.5 1.6 3.1 6 3.4 11.5 6.1 23.8 2.4 13.1 -0.3 4.5 0.8 4.2 -2.8 37.6 -0.5

129.5 1.5 4.3 5.6 125.3 1.3 4.4 2.8 18.3 1.7 2.6 13.3 2.5 1.6 2.7 6 3.6 11.6 4.4 23.9 2.4 13.2 0.4 4.5 0.5 4.2 -2.2 37.6 -0.2

130.3 1.7 4.3 5.8 126 1.6 4.4 4.6 18.5 2.7 2.6 13.4 2.6 1.6 2.2 6.1 3.2 11.7 3.4 24 2.1 13.3 1.2 4.5 0.4 4.2 -1.5 37.7 0.3

131 1.9 4.4 5.6 126.6 1.8 4.5 5.2 18.6 3.1 2.6 13.4 2.6 1.6 2.1 6.1 2.8 11.8 3.3 24.1 1.7 13.4 2.2 4.6 0.5 4.2 -1.1 37.8 0.6

131.7 2.1 4.4 5.2 127.3 2 4.6 5.9 18.8 3.2 2.6 13.5 2.6 1.6 2.3 6.1 2.1 12 3.6 24.2 1.4 13.5 2.9 4.6 0.5 4.2 -0.8 37.9 0.9

132.4 2.2 4.5 4.7 127.9 2.1 4.7 6.9 18.9 3.2 2.7 13.6 2.6 1.6 2.5 6.1 1.5 12.2 4.7 24.2 1.2 13.5 2.7 4.6 0.6 4.2 -0.5 38 1.1

133.1 2.2 4.5 4.2 128.6 2.1 4.7 7.1 19.1 3.1 2.7 13.6 2.7 1.6 2.8 6.1 1.1 12.3 5.6 24.3 1 13.6 2.1 4.6 0.4 4.2 -0.7 38.2 1.3

133.7 2 4.5 3.6 129.1 2 4.8 7 19.2 2.8 2.7 13.7 2.7 1.6 2.7 6.1 0.9 12.5 5.9 24.3 0.8 13.6 1.4 4.6 0.2 4.2 -0.7 38.3 1.4

134.2 1.9 4.5 3 129.6 1.8 4.9 6.7 19.2 2.4 2.7 13.8 2.7 1.6 2.5 6.2 0.7 12.7 5.9 24.3 0.6 13.6 0.9 4.6 0 4.2 -0.8 38.4 1.4

7586.2 262.7 0.6 141.3 2.3 8.7 494 514 -21

7619.6 263.1 0.6 140.6 0.8 8.6 564 523 41

7649.6 263.3 0.5 139.9 -0.6 8.3 812 583 229

7693.5 263.7 0.5 139.2 -2 8 926 676 250

7753.4 264 0.5 138.5 -2 7.7 1005 753 252

7811.1 264.4 0.5 137.9 -1.9 7.3 1017 806 211

7861.8 264.9 0.6 137.3 -1.9 7 1108 869 239

7925.9 265.6 0.7 137 -1.5 6.7 1156 923 232

7989.2 266.3 0.8 136.7 -1.3 6.4 1258 990 267

8052 267 1 137 -0.7 6.2 1309 1003 306

8095.6 267.7 1 137.3 0 5.9 1341 1008 333

8150.3 268.4 1.1 137.6 0.5 5.7 1392 1041 351

8202.5 269.2 1.1 137.9 0.9 5.6 1425 1059 366

8248.8 270 1.1 138.2 0.9 5.5 1431 1054 378

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

49


G ai n e s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

6.3 3.4 3.8 2.5

7.1 13 4.3 2.8

7.7 8.2 4.6 3.1

8.3 7.9 4.9 3.4

8.7 5 5.1 3.6

8.9 1.7 5.2 3.7

8.7 -2.5 5 3.7

9 4.4 5.1 3.9

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

6 1.3

6.6 10.1

6.9 5.1

7.3 5

7.4 2.3

7.3 -1.6

7.1 -2.7

7.3 2.8

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

26.1 24.7

29.1 26.9

31 27.8

32.7 28.6

33.9 28.9

34.3 28.2

33.2 27.3

34.5 27.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

29.9 1.7

33.4 11.8

35.2 5.2

36.9 5.1

38.1 3

38.6 1.5

38.9 0.7

40 2.9

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

126.4 1.1

128.6 1.8

130.2 1.2

132.3 1.6

134.2 1.4

133.5 -0.5

127.8 -4.3

127.8 0

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.7 -5.4

4.7 -1.8

4.6 -0.2

5.2 12.2

5.3 2.2

5.1 -4.7

4.2 -17.4

3.9 -6.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

121.6 1.3

123.9 1.9

125.5 1.3

127.1 1.2

128.8 1.4

128.4 -0.3

123.6 -3.8

123.9 0.3

5.2 1.5

5.8 11.7

6.2 6.3

6.5 5.2

6.5 0.9

5.7 -13.2

4.7 -17.1

4.4 -6.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

18.1 1.1

18.2 0.4

18.9 3.5

19.5 3.3

20.2 4

19.7 -2.8

18.3 -6.9

18.1 -1.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

2.5 13.1 2.5

2.6 13.2 2.4

2.7 13.8 2.4

2.7 14.1 2.6

2.8 14.9 2.6

2.8 14.2 2.7

2.6 13.3 2.5

2.5 13.1 2.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2 -1.3

2.1 6.1

2 -5.8

2 -2.9

2 2.6

1.9 -7

1.6 -13.3

1.5 -6.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.2 -6.4

6.2 -0.7

6.2 1

6.5 4

6.4 -0.5

6.2 -3.3

5.9 -5.3

5.9 -0.6

9.4 4.8

10.3 9.8

10.9 6.1

11.1 1.4

10.6 -4.4

10.7 1.8

10.4 -3.1

10.7 2.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

20.8 2.3

21.5 2.9

21.9 2.1

21.9 0.1

21.8 -0.5

22.4 2.9

22.5 0.4

23.1 2.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

12 -0.5

12.9 7.5

13.7 5.9

13.4 -2.1

14 4.1

14.5 3.7

13.5 -7.1

13.2 -2.3

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

4.5 5.4

4.7 3.3

4.5 -3

4.7 2.6

4.8 3.7

4.8 -0.5

4.6 -5.3

4.5 -1.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

3.3 3.6

3.4 3.7

3.7 5.9

3.7 2.1

3.8 3.1

4 5.2

4.3 5.3

4.5 6.4

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

40 1.6

38.8 -2.8

37.6 -3.3

37.9 0.9

38.6 1.8

38.5 -0.3

37.8 -1.7

38 0.6

6590.2

6863.6

7161.2

7393.6

7489.9

7555.1

7342.5

7576.6

241.7 1.1

244.6 1.2

248.9 1.7

254 2.1

257.3 1.3

259.3 0.8

260.9 0.6

262.5 0.6

126 0.8

126.5 0.4

130 2.7

132.3 1.7

136 2.8

138.9 2.2

138.5 -0.3

141.2 1.9

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

50

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

3.7

3.4

2.9

2.7

3

4.3

7.2

8.8

1706 1260 446

1839 1377 462

2227 1455 772

1895 1155 739

1377 763 614

1064 516 548

462 341 121

599 544 55

Continued


G ai n e s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

June 2010 Forecast

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

9.5 4.5 5.3 4.2

9.9 4.6 5.5 4.4

10.3 4.4 5.8 4.5

10.9 5.5 6.1 4.8

11.5 5.6 6.4 5.1

12.1 5.5 6.7 5.5

12.8 5.3 7 5.8

13.4 5 7.3 6.2

14.1 5.1 7.6 6.5

14.8 5.1 7.9 6.9

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

7.5 2.9

7.7 2.8

7.9 2.5

8.2 3.5

8.5 3.5

8.8 3.5

9.1 3.3

9.3 2.9

9.6 3.2

9.9 3.1

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

35.8 28.5

37.2 29.1

38.4 29.5

40.1 30.2

41.9 30.9

43.8 31.7

45.7 32.4

47.5 33.1

49.4 33.8

51.4 34.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

41.1 2.8

42.1 2.4

43.3 2.9

44.7 3.2

46.2 3.2

47.7 3.4

49.3 3.4

51 3.4

52.7 3.4

54.4 3.2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

128.3 0.4

130.6 1.8

133.3 2.1

135.4 1.5

137.3 1.4

139.1 1.4

140.7 1.1

141.9 0.9

143.2 0.9

144.5 0.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.1 4.4

4.3 5.6

4.5 3.9

4.6 1.6

4.6 0.2

4.6 -0.3

4.5 -0.4

4.5 -0.3

4.5 -0.5

4.5 -0.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

124.2 0.3

126.3 1.7

128.8 2

130.8 1.5

132.7 1.4

134.6 1.4

136.1 1.1

137.4 0.9

138.7 1

140 1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

4.3 -3.5

4.5 4.6

4.8 6.9

5 3.8

5 1.9

5.2 2.9

5.3 2.7

5.5 2.4

5.5 1.2

5.6 1.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

18.1 0.2

18.6 2.6

19.1 2.8

19.4 1.5

19.6 1

19.6 0.2

19.6 -0.1

19.6 0.1

19.7 0.2

19.7 0.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

2.5 13.1 2.4

2.6 13.4 2.6

2.7 13.7 2.7

2.8 13.8 2.8

2.8 13.8 2.8

2.8 13.8 2.9

2.8 13.7 2.9

2.9 13.6 3

2.9 13.6 3

2.9 13.6 3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.5 2.7

1.6 2.3

1.6 2.6

1.6 1.6

1.7 1.3

1.7 1.5

1.7 1.6

1.7 1.2

1.8 1.2

1.8 0.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

5.9 0.8

6.1 2.9

6.1 1.1

6.2 0.4

6.2 0.6

6.2 0.5

6.2 0.4

6.2 0

6.3 0.3

6.3 0.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

11.3 6.1

11.8 3.7

12.4 5.5

13 5.2

13.8 5.5

14.5 5.7

15.2 4.5

15.7 3.3

16.3 3.6

16.8 3.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

23.6 1.9

24 1.9

24.3 0.9

24.6 1.3

25 1.6

25.5 2.2

26 1.6

26.4 1.5

26.7 1.4

27.1 1.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

13.1 -0.4

13.3 1.7

13.6 1.8

13.6 0.2

13.6 -0.1

13.5 -0.1

13.5 -0.3

13.5 -0.3

13.5 0

13.4 -0.5

4.5 0.5

4.6 0.5

4.6 0.3

4.6 0.5

4.6 0.4

4.6 0.1

4.6 0.1

4.6 -0.1

4.6 0

4.6 0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

4.3 -5.7

4.2 -1.4

4.2 -0.7

4.2 -0.3

4.2 0.1

4.2 0.4

4.2 0.6

4.2 0.6

4.3 0.7

4.5 4.7

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

37.6 -1.1

37.8 0.4

38.2 1.3

38.7 1.2

39.1 1.1

39.4 0.8

39.7 0.8

39.9 0.5

40.1 0.5

40.2 0.3

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

7726.9

7957.2

8174.3

8410.1

8648.2

8900.3

9128.3

9351.1

9591.3

9824.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

263.9 0.5

265.9 0.8

268.8 1.1

271.8 1.1

274.5 1

277.2 1

279.9 1

282.7 1

285.5 1

288.3 1

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

138.9 -1.6

137 -1.4

137.8 0.6

138.7 0.7

140 0.9

141.2 0.9

142.3 0.8

143.3 0.7

144.5 0.8

145.9 1

Unemployment Rate (%)

7.8

6.6

5.7

5.2

5

4.8

4.5

4.3

4.1

3.9

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

940 704 236

1208 947 261

1398 1041 357

1443 1034 408

1507 1033 474

1570 1044 526

1594 1041 552

1606 1042 564

1617 1039 578

1622 1034 588

Continued

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

51


G ai n e s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

15.5 4.8 8.2 7.3

16.3 4.7 8.6 7.7

17 4.4 8.9 8.1

17.7 4.3 9.3 8.5

18.5 4.4 9.7 8.9

19.3 4.5 10.1 9.3

20.2 4.5 10.5 9.7

21.1 4.3 10.9 10.1

22 4.3 11.4 10.6

22.9 4.3 11.9 11

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

10.2 3

10.5 2.9

10.8 2.6

11.1 2.4

11.3 2.5

11.6 2.6

11.9 2.6

12.2 2.4

12.5 2.4

12.8 2.4

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

53.4 35.2

55.4 35.8

57.3 36.4

59.1 36.9

61.2 37.5

63.3 38.1

65.4 38.7

67.6 39.2

69.8 39.8

72.2 40.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

56.1 3.3

58 3.3

59.9 3.2

61.8 3.2

63.8 3.3

66 3.4

68.2 3.4

70.6 3.4

73 3.5

75.5 3.4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

145.7 0.8

147.2 1.1

148.6 0.9

149.6 0.7

150.8 0.8

152.1 0.9

153.3 0.8

154.6 0.8

155.9 0.9

157.4 0.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.4 -1.3

4.4 -1.7

4.3 -2

4.2 -1.7

4.1 -1.4

4.1 -1.2

4 -1.1

4 -1.2

4 -0.9

3.9 -0.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

141.2 0.9

142.9 1.2

144.3 1

145.4 0.8

146.7 0.9

148 0.9

149.3 0.8

150.6 0.9

152 0.9

153.5 1

5.7 1.8

5.8 2

5.9 2

6 1.6

6.1 1.7

6.3 2.3

6.4 1.8

6.5 1.4

6.5 1.3

6.6 1.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

19.8 0.3

20 1

20.1 0.9

20.3 0.7

20.4 0.7

20.5 0.6

20.7 0.6

20.8 0.6

20.9 0.5

21 0.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3 13.6 3

3.1 13.7 3.1

3.1 13.7 3.1

3.2 13.8 3.2

3.2 13.8 3.2

3.2 13.8 3.3

3.3 13.9 3.3

3.3 13.9 3.3

3.3 14 3.4

3.4 14 3.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.8 1

1.8 1.3

1.8 1.2

1.9 1

1.9 1.1

1.9 1.4

1.9 1.5

2 1.7

2 1.9

2 1.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.3 0.1

6.3 0.8

6.4 0.7

6.4 0.6

6.5 0.9

6.5 0.9

6.6 0.8

6.6 0.9

6.7 0.9

6.8 0.9

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

17.6 4.4

18.3 4.1

18.9 3.2

19.3 2.3

19.9 3

20.5 3.1

21 2.6

21.6 2.7

22.3 3.1

22.9 2.9

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

27.4 0.8

27.6 0.8

27.8 0.8

28 0.7

28.2 0.6

28.4 0.7

28.6 0.7

28.8 0.8

29 0.8

29.2 0.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

13.4 -0.1

13.4 0.3

13.4 0.1

13.4 0

13.4 0.1

13.5 0.2

13.5 0.4

13.6 0.4

13.6 0.5

13.6 0.1

4.7 0.9

4.7 1.2

4.7 0.9

4.8 0.9

4.8 1

4.9 0.6

4.9 0.4

4.9 0.3

4.9 0.3

4.9 0.3

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

4.4 -1.6

4.4 1

4.5 0.6

4.5 0.6

4.5 0.6

4.5 0.6

4.6 0.6

4.6 0.6

4.6 0.6

5 7

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

40.4 0.3

40.5 0.4

40.7 0.4

40.8 0.3

41 0.4

41.1 0.3

41.2 0.3

41.3 0.2

41.4 0.2

41.4 0.1

10078.2

10352.6

10620.4

10881.1

11162.9

11435.8

11694.8

11954.9

12223.7

12510.8

291.1 1

294 1

296.9 1

299.8 1

302.7 1

305.7 1

308.7 1

311.7 1

314.7 1

317.7 1

147 0.8

148.1 0.7

149.2 0.7

150.3 0.7

151.5 0.8

152.9 1

154.5 1

156 1

157.6 1

159.1 1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

52

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.8

1602 1016 586

1620 1021 599

1636 1028 608

1636 1039 598

1651 1059 593

1656 1064 592

1625 1036 589

1579 996 583

1545 973 572

1541 977 564

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

Continued


G ai n e s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

23.9 4.3 12.4 11.5

25 4.4 13 11.9

26 4.2 13.6 12.4

27.1 4 14.1 12.9

28.1 3.9 14.6 13.5

29.2 4 15.2 14

30.4 3.8 15.8 14.6

31.5 3.8 16.4 15.1

32.7 3.7 17 15.7

33.9 3.8 17.6 16.3

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

13.1 2.3

13.4 2.5

13.7 2.2

14 2

14.3 2

14.6 2

14.9 1.9

15.1 1.8

15.4 1.7

15.6 1.8

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

74.5 40.9

77.1 41.5

79.6 42

82 42.5

84.4 42.9

87 43.4

89.5 43.8

92 44.2

94.5 44.5

97.2 44.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

78.2 3.5

80.9 3.5

83.7 3.4

86.5 3.3

89.3 3.3

92.2 3.3

95.3 3.3

98.4 3.3

101.6 3.2

105.1 3.4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

158.7 0.8

160.4 1.1

161.7 0.8

162.6 0.6

163.3 0.5

164.3 0.6

165.1 0.5

165.8 0.4

166.5 0.4

167.4 0.5

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

3.9 -0.6

3.9 -0.7

3.8 -0.8

3.8 -0.8

3.8 -0.9

3.8 -0.8

3.7 -0.7

3.7 -0.6

3.7 -0.3

3.7 0

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

154.7 0.8

156.5 1.1

157.8 0.8

158.8 0.6

159.6 0.5

160.5 0.6

161.4 0.6

162.1 0.4

162.8 0.5

163.7 0.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

6.8 2.3

7 2.3

7.1 2.2

7.2 1.4

7.3 1.1

7.4 1.3

7.5 1.4

7.6 1.2

7.7 1.2

7.7 0.7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

21 0.3

21.1 0.2

21.1 0.3

21.1 0.1

21.1 0

21.1 0.1

21.1 0

21.2 0.1

21.2 0.1

21.2 0

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.4 14 3.4

3.4 14.1 3.4

3.4 14.1 3.3

3.4 14.2 3.3

3.3 14.2 3.3

3.3 14.2 3.3

3.3 14.3 3.3

3.3 14.3 3.2

3.3 14.4 3.2

3.3 14.4 3.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.1 2.2

2.1 2.7

2.2 2.1

2.2 1.4

2.2 1.2

2.3 1.4

2.3 1.7

2.3 1.7

2.4 1.5

2.4 0.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.8 1.1

6.9 1.2

7 1

7 0.9

7.1 0.8

7.2 0.9

7.2 0.8

7.3 0.7

7.3 0.6

7.3 0.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

23.7 3.4

24.7 4

25.3 2.7

25.8 2

26.3 1.8

26.8 2.1

27.4 2

27.8 1.5

28.2 1.4

28.7 1.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

29.4 0.8

29.7 1

29.9 0.7

30.1 0.4

30.2 0.3

30.3 0.4

30.4 0.3

30.5 0.4

30.6 0.4

30.7 0.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

13.7 0.6

13.8 0.7

13.9 0.6

13.9 0.4

14 0.5

14.1 0.4

14.1 0.3

14.1 0.1

14.2 0.4

14.1 -0.3

4.9 0.2

4.9 0.2

5 0.2

5 0.2

5 0.1

5 0.2

5 -0.1

5 -0.2

5 -0.2

4.9 -0.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

4.7 -4.3

4.8 0.6

4.8 0.6

4.8 0.6

4.8 0.6

4.9 0.6

4.9 0.6

4.9 0.5

5 0.4

5.2 5.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

41.5 0.1

41.5 0.1

41.5 0

41.5 0

41.5 0

41.5 0

41.5 -0.1

41.5 -0.1

41.4 -0.1

41.4 -0.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

12814.4

13125.7

13427.9

13723.1

14016.5

14331.1

14659.5

14980.4

15325.3

15697.8

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

320.7 0.9

323.8 1

326.9 0.9

329.9 0.9

333 0.9

336 0.9

339.2 0.9

342.3 0.9

345.5 0.9

348.6 0.9

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

160.6 1

162.2 0.9

163.7 0.9

165.2 0.9

166.7 0.9

168.1 0.9

169.6 0.9

171.1 0.9

172.6 0.9

174 0.8

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

4

4

4

1523 967 556

1483 930 554

1458 915 543

1453 920 533

1445 926 520

1427 928 499

1396 917 479

1367 903 464

1350 896 454

1329 888 441

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

53


J ac k s o n v i l l e

P r o fi l e s The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport. Quick Facts:

• Citibank – 4,600 employees • CSX – 4,400 employees

• Bank of America – 4,000 employees

Source: The Cornerstone Regional Development Partnership

Out l o o k Summarie s

Top Area Employers:

The Jacksonville MSA is expected to see strong growth in most of the economic indicators, relative to the state. Personal income will see an average growth rate of 5.3 percent, while the per capita income level will be one of the highest in the state at 33.6. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.0 percent, one of the highest in the state. Average annual wage is also expected to be among the state’s highest, at a level of 48.6. Population growth will be moderate at an average annual rate of 0.9 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 50,626.80 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to be 1.1 percent annually, the second highest in the state. Unemployment will average 10.5 percent in the MSA. The fastest growing sector in the Jacksonville MSA will be Professional & Business Services, which will see an average annual growth rate of 2.7 percent. Following that sector is Education and Health Services, with an annual growth rate of 2.5 percent, and then Trade, Transportation and Utilities with a 2.4 percent growth rate. The Construction and Mining and Federal Government sectors are the only sectors that will experience a decline, with annual growth rates of -0.3 percent and -0.9 percent respectively.

• Duval County Public Schools – 14,489 employees

M etr o Ne w s Summarie s

• City of Jacksonville Municipal Government – 8,828 employees

Jaxport faces $100M terminal repair bill

• Metro population estimate of 1,367,692 as of 2009 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • Baker County population estimate of 26,336 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Clay County population estimate of 186,756 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Duval County population estimate of 857,040 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Nassau County population estimate of 70,576 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• St. Johns County population estimate of 187,436 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 687,125 in April 2010 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• An unemployment rate of 11.0% as of April 2010, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 75,919 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• Naval Air Station Jacksonville – 25,245 employees • Naval Station Mayport – 10,000 employees

• Baptist Health – 8,100 employees

• Blue Cross & Blue Shield of Florida – 7,000 employees • Mayo Clinic – 5,000 employees

54

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

• Jacksonville Port Authority CEO Rick Ferrin said $100 million will be needed to repair 30-year-old infrastructure over the next decade at the Talleyrand and Blount Island marine terminals.


J ac k s o n v i l l e

• Blount Island is down to five cranes from the eight that were in use just a year and a half ago.

• Two cranes were destroyed in an August 2008 storm, and another buckled due to age. A fourth crane’s mobility is limited and needs repairs.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, March 29, 2010

Mayport dredging plan OK’d

• Florida environmental officials tentatively approved plans to dredge Mayport Naval Station’s basin to make it 52 feet deep.

• The approximately 6.2 million cubic yards of sediment and other material will be disposed of at two offshore sites.

LPS confirms 350 jobs for Jacksonville

• Lender Processing Services Inc. will expand in Jacksonville by adding 350 full-time jobs.

• The city and the state provided nearly $3 million in incentives to bring the jobs to Jacksonville rather than other cities the Jacksonville-based company was considering. • The average wage is $44,807 plus $11,202 in benefits for the jobs. LPS has also committed to investing $1.5 million in capital.

• LPS will hire 175 people this year and 175 people in 2011.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, May 5, 2010

• The dredging is one step in the process required for a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier to be based at the naval station.

Laura St. building renovations announced

Jacksonville must cut $12 million by September or run out of cash

• The $70 million project is expected to create 975 temporary and permanent jobs.

Source: The Florida Times-Union, April 28, 2010

• Jacksonville Mayor John Peyton must find $12.5 million to cut by September or the city will be in violation of its charter.

• City leaders had planned on $22 million in salary and benefit concessions from unions that have not yet been realized. • Possible options for the city include laying off workers, taking fire engines out of service, closing libraries, implementing a 4% property tax increase, increasing city fees, and halting public works projects.

• Two development groups, Linea LLC and Capital City Partners of Tallahassee, are working together to develop four of Jacksonville’s most historic buildings.

• The Downtown Jacksonville project will include the development of the former Barnett Bank building into The Bank Hotel, a 120-room boutique hotel.

• The former Florida Life Building, Bisbee Building, and the Marble Bank, known as the Laura Street Trio, will be renovated into 98 loftstyle apartment homes, 17,000 feet of retail space, and a 248-space parking garage.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, May 25, 2010

Source: The Florida Times-Union, April 29, 2010

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

55


J ac k s o n v i l l e

Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate (percent)

14.0% 12.0%

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Jacksonville Payroll Employment 900.0

(Thousands)

700.0 600.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate

Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product 120000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

100000.0 80000.0 60000.0 40000.0 20000.0

56

0.6

800.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.4

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Gross Metro Product Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

500.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Jacksonville Payroll Employment

Jacksonville Real Personal Income 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0%

(percent change year ago)

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Personal Income


J ac k s o n v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

54 6 28 26 43.6 4.5 40.2 32.5 46.6 3.4

54.6 6 28.3 26.4 44 4.8 40.6 32.7 47 3.4

55.3 6.5 28.6 26.8 44.3 5.1 41 32.9 47.4 3.6

55.9 4.8 28.9 27 44.6 3.1 41.4 33 47.7 3.2

56.6 4.9 29.3 27.4 45 3.2 41.8 33.2 48 3.1

57.4 5.1 29.7 27.7 45.4 3.3 42.3 33.4 48.3 2.8

58.3 5.3 30.1 28.1 45.9 3.5 42.8 33.7 48.7 2.7

59.1 5.8 30.5 28.6 46.4 3.9 43.3 34 49 2.7

60 5.9 31 29 46.8 4.1 43.8 34.2 49.3 2.8

60.8 6 31.5 29.4 47.2 4 44.3 34.4 49.7 2.9

61.6 5.7 32 29.6 47.6 3.7 44.6 34.5 50.2 3.1

62.5 5.6 32.4 30 48.1 3.6 45.1 34.7 50.6 3.2

63.3 5.5 32.9 30.5 48.5 3.6 45.5 34.9 51 3.3

64.2 5.5 33.3 30.9 48.9 3.6 46 35.1 51.4 3.3

589.6 1.6 29 4.5 560.6 1.4 28.3 -1.1 130.6 1.5 27.2 71.9 31.5 10.6 4.6 53.6 0.9 85.6 4.7 88.1 2.8 64.4 -0.4 24.4 1.3 17.2 -4.3 57.8 -0.6

593.9 2.2 29.3 4.7 564.6 2.1 28.6 1.1 131.9 2.4 27.5 72.5 32 10.7 3.9 54.1 2.9 86.7 4.7 88.8 3.1 64.4 -0.1 24.5 1.2 17.1 -2.7 57.9 -0.1

598.7 2.7 29.7 5.3 568.9 2.6 29 3.5 133.3 3.3 27.8 73.1 32.5 10.8 3.2 54.6 3.5 87.5 4.3 89.3 3.3 64.9 0.7 24.5 0.8 17.1 -1.9 58 0.4

603.3 3 30.1 5.1 573.2 2.9 29.5 5.4 134.7 4 28.1 73.7 32.9 10.8 2.3 54.9 3.4 88 3.9 90.1 3.2 65.5 1.6 24.5 0.7 17 -1.4 58.3 0.9

607.9 3.1 30.3 4.7 577.6 3 30.1 6.2 136 4.1 28.3 74.2 33.4 10.8 2.1 55.2 3 88.6 3.6 90.7 3 66.1 2.7 24.6 0.7 17 -1.1 58.5 1.2

612.6 3.1 30.6 4.3 581.9 3.1 30.6 7.2 137.3 4.1 28.6 74.7 33.8 10.9 1.9 55.5 2.5 89.4 3.1 91.2 2.8 66.7 3.6 24.7 0.8 16.9 -0.9 58.8 1.6

616.9 3 30.8 3.7 586 3 31.2 7.9 138.5 3.9 28.9 75.2 34.2 11 1.8 55.7 2 90.2 3.1 91.6 2.5 67.2 3.6 24.7 0.7 16.9 -0.8 59.1 1.8

621.1 3 31.1 3.4 590.1 2.9 31.9 8.2 139.6 3.7 29.1 75.7 34.5 11 2.1 55.8 1.7 91 3.4 92.1 2.3 67.5 3.1 24.7 0.7 16.9 -0.7 59.4 1.9

624.9 2.8 31.2 2.9 593.7 2.8 32.5 8.3 140.6 3.4 29.3 76.2 34.8 11.1 2.1 56 1.5 91.9 3.6 92.6 2 67.8 2.6 24.7 0.6 16.9 -0.5 59.6 1.9

628.3 2.6 31.4 2.5 596.9 2.6 33 7.9 141.3 2.9 29.4 76.5 35 11.1 1.9 56.2 1.3 92.8 3.8 92.9 1.9 68.1 2.2 24.8 0.4 16.9 -0.4 59.9 1.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

580.5 0 27.7 -1.2 552.8 0.1 28.6 -9.1 128.7 2.3 26.3 71.6 30.2 10.1 -1.1 53.1 -3.1 81.7 0.2 85.7 2.4 64.6 0.3 24.1 1 17.9 2.3 58.1 -1.2

581 0.2 28 1.7 552.9 0.1 28.2 -7.2 128.8 1.7 26.3 71.7 30.2 10.3 -0.1 52.6 -3.7 82.8 1 86.1 1.9 64.5 1 24.2 0.9 17.6 0.5 57.9 -1.3

582.8 0.4 28.2 3.8 554.5 0.2 28 -6 129.1 0.8 26.4 71.7 30.5 10.4 1.8 52.7 -2.3 83.9 2 86.4 1.9 64.4 0.1 24.3 1.7 17.4 -1.3 57.8 -1.3

585.5 0.6 28.6 4.1 556.9 0.4 28 -4.8 129.6 0.7 26.8 71.7 30.9 10.6 4.2 53.1 -0.5 84.7 4.2 87.2 2.2 64.4 -0.1 24.4 1.4 17.3 -11.6 57.8 -1.4

46608.7 46879.3 47106.6 47405.7 47833.1 48268.4 48725.3 49201.6 49666.6 1343.6 1346.3 1348.9 1351.6 1354.6 1357.9 1361.6 1365.4 1369.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1 1.1 697.8 697.8 698.4 698.7 699.6 700.8 701.7 703.1 704.6 2.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 12.3 12.3 12 11.6 11.2 10.8 10.4 10 9.5 4117 4580 5850 7103 8170 9023 9910 10651 11454 4566 4769 5311 6270 7091 7857 8366 8968 9542 -449 -190 539 833 1080 1166 1545 1683 1912

50125 50478.5 50874.5 51269.6 51631.4 1374.2 1379.2 1384.6 1390.3 1396.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 706.2 708.5 710.5 712.8 716 0.8 1 1 1.2 1.4 9.1 8.8 8.5 8.3 8.1 11835 12080 12522 12817 12844 9660 9723 10028 10209 10151 2175 2357 2494 2608 2693

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

57


J ac k s o n v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

38.5 6.1 22.4 16.2

41.8 8.5 23.9 17.9

45.6 9 25.6 20

50.3 10.2 27.9 22.3

52.3 4 29 23.3

52.7 0.8 28.7 24

51.3 -2.7 27.3 23.9

53.5 4.4 27.9 25.6

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

36.6 4

38.7 5.8

41 5.9

43.9 7.2

44.5 1.3

43.4 -2.4

42.1 -2.9

43.3 2.7

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

32.2 30.5

34.1 31.5

36.4 32.7

39.2 34.3

40.1 34.1

40 32.9

38.6 31.7

39.9 32.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

37.9 6.4

39.6 4.2

40.8 3.2

43.1 5.5

44.2 2.7

44.7 1.1

45.1 0.9

46.4 2.8

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

563.2 0.5

578.5 2.7

603.7 4.4

624.7 3.5

633.7 1.4

621.4 -1.9

586 -5.7

581.1 -0.8

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

33.3 -3.1

33.3 -0.3

33.5 0.8

33.3 -0.8

32.5 -2.2

31.9 -1.9

28.7 -10.2

27.6 -3.7

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

529.9 0.7

545.2 2.9

570.1 4.6

591.4 3.7

601.2 1.7

589.5 -1.9

557.4 -5.5

553.5 -0.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

36.6 7.4

40.9 11.5

45.4 11

50.1 10.3

49.2 -1.6

43 -12.6

32.9 -23.4

29 -12

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

125 0.4

128.1 2.5

132.7 3.6

136.9 3.1

139.2 1.7

136.3 -2.1

127.4 -6.6

128.6 0.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

26.8 68.8 29.4

26.9 71.1 30.1

27.8 73.9 31

29.9 74.8 32.2

30.2 76.5 32.5

28.6 75.5 32.3

26.8 70.1 30.4

26.4 71.6 30.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

12.4 -6.1

11.6 -6.4

11.9 2.4

11.1 -6.8

10.2 -8.5

10.2 0.7

10.4 1.4

10.2 -1.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

57.6 -0.1

58.4 1.4

59.3 1.4

59.8 0.9

60.1 0.5

59.7 -0.7

55.5 -7.1

53.2 -4.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

82.8 -2.9

82.5 -0.4

88.1 6.7

95.4 8.3

94.3 -1.2

88 -6.6

82.3 -6.5

82 -0.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

64.7 1.9

67.9 5

71.3 4.9

74.5 4.5

77.9 4.6

81.7 4.9

83.6 2.3

85.5 2.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

53.3 1.6

56.3 5.5

60.4 7.3

62.1 2.9

65.9 6.1

67.3 2.1

64.9 -3.5

64.5 -0.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

25.7 3

26.4 2.6

26.8 1.5

27.6 3.1

28.2 2.3

26.6 -5.9

24 -9.8

24.1 0.3

18 1.6

17.8 -1.3

17.4 -2.2

16.9 -2.6

17 0.6

17.1 0.6

17.5 2.4

18.2 3.5

53.6 1.7

55.4 3.3

57.1 3

57 0

59.1 3.7

59.5 0.6

58.9 -1.1

58.3 -0.9

40314.2

42077.1

44904.4

46990.7

47132.1

46878.5

45535.5

46633

1198.5 2

1225.8 2.3

1252.6 2.2

1281.3 2.3

1302.6 1.7

1317.7 1.2

1329.7 0.9

1342.1 0.9

599.4 0.3

607.5 1.3

630.4 3.8

651.5 3.3

671.1 3

686.6 2.3

686.3 -0.1

697.3 1.6

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

58

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

5

4.6

3.7

3.3

3.8

5.8

10.1

12.3

15041 12820 2221

17882 13851 4030

23862 18638 5225

16770 12263 4506

10516 7488 3028

7074 5164 1911

4506 3487 1019

4504 4580 -76

Continued


J ac k s o n v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

56.3 5.3 29.1 27.2

59.6 5.7 30.8 28.8

62.9 5.6 32.6 30.2

67.1 6.6 34.5 32.6

71.3 6.3 36.3 35

75.6 6 38.1 37.4

80 5.9 40 40

84.6 5.6 41.9 42.6

89.5 5.8 43.9 45.6

94.7 5.8 45.9 48.8

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

44.8 3.6

46.6 3.9

48.3 3.6

50.5 4.6

52.6 4.3

54.7 4

56.8 3.8

58.9 3.6

61.1 3.9

63.5 3.8

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

41.6 33.1

43.5 34.1

45.3 34.8

47.5 35.8

49.7 36.7

51.8 37.5

53.9 38.3

56 39

58.3 39.8

60.6 40.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

47.8 3.2

49.2 2.8

50.8 3.2

52.5 3.4

54.4 3.5

56.3 3.5

58.3 3.5

60.3 3.5

62.4 3.5

64.5 3.4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

587.9 1.2

605.6 3

622.8 2.8

636.4 2.2

647.5 1.7

658 1.6

667.2 1.4

675.4 1.2

683.5 1.2

691.6 1.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

28.8 4.3

30.2 4.8

31.1 3.1

31.5 1.3

31.5 0.1

31.4 -0.5

31.2 -0.5

31.1 -0.3

31 -0.5

30.8 -0.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

559.2 1

575.4 2.9

591.7 2.8

604.9 2.2

616 1.8

626.6 1.7

635.9 1.5

644.2 1.3

652.6 1.3

660.8 1.3

28.2 -2.7

29.8 5.6

32.2 8.1

33.8 4.9

34.6 2.4

35.5 2.7

36.6 3

37.7 3.2

38.5 2

39.3 2.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

130.3 1.4

135.3 3.8

140 3.5

143.1 2.2

145.7 1.8

147 0.9

148 0.7

149.1 0.8

150.1 0.6

150.8 0.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

27 72 31.2

28.2 73.9 33.1

29.2 75.9 34.6

29.8 77.2 35.7

30.4 77.9 36.8

30.8 77.9 37.7

31.2 77.7 38.5

31.6 77.8 39.1

32.1 78.1 39.3

32.6 78.4 39.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

10.6 3.6

10.8 2.4

11 2

11.2 1.1

11.3 1.4

11.5 1.7

11.7 2

11.9 1.6

12.1 1.4

12.2 1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

53.4 0.3

55 3.1

55.9 1.6

56.5 1.1

57.1 1

57.7 1

58.2 1

58.6 0.6

59 0.8

59.4 0.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

85.2 3.9

88.4 3.7

91.5 3.5

95 3.9

98.2 3.4

101.7 3.5

104.7 2.9

107 2.3

109.7 2.5

112.2 2.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

87.6 2.5

90.3 3.1

92.3 2.2

94.5 2.3

96.6 2.3

99.4 2.9

101.5 2.2

103.6 2

105.7 2

108 2.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

64.4 -0.1

65.8 2.1

67.7 2.9

68.6 1.4

69 0.6

69.4 0.5

69.7 0.5

69.9 0.2

70.3 0.5

70.3 0.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

24.4 1.4

24.6 0.7

24.7 0.6

25 0.9

25.2 0.9

25.3 0.6

25.5 0.6

25.6 0.4

25.7 0.5

25.8 0.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

17.2 -5.2

17 -1.3

16.9 -0.6

16.9 -0.2

16.9 0.2

17 0.6

17.1 0.7

17.2 0.7

17.4 0.7

18.2 4.6

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

57.8 -0.8

58.4 1

59.5 1.8

60.5 1.7

61.4 1.5

62.1 1.2

62.9 1.2

63.5 1

64.2 1

64.6 0.8

47653.5

49429.6

51063.5

52857.2

54599.9

56395.7

58110.9

59853.1

61699.2

63502.8

1353.3 0.8

1367.7 1.1

1387.5 1.4

1410.5 1.7

1434.7 1.7

1459.5 1.7

1484.6 1.7

1510.1 1.7

1535.9 1.7

1561.8 1.7

699.4 0.3

703.9 0.6

711.9 1.1

722.7 1.5

734.6 1.7

746.2 1.6

757.7 1.5

769.4 1.5

780.6 1.5

791.3 1.4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%)

11.4

9.7

8.4

7.5

7

6.5

6

5.5

5.2

4.8

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

7537 6632 904

10963 9134 1829

12566 10028 2538

12899 10078 2821

13477 10212 3265

14204 10523 3680

14542 10670 3872

14666 10742 3925

14895 10830 4064

14980 10872 4107

Continued

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

59


J ac k s o n v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

99.9 5.5 48 51.9

105.3 5.4 50.3 54.9

110.7 5.2 52.7 58

116.3 5.1 55.1 61.2

122.3 5.1 57.7 64.6

128.6 5.2 60.5 68.1

135.3 5.2 63.3 72

142.1 5 66.3 75.7

149.2 5 69.5 79.6

156.5 5 72.9 83.7

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

65.8 3.7

68.1 3.5

70.4 3.3

72.6 3.1

74.9 3.2

77.4 3.3

79.9 3.3

82.4 3.1

84.9 3.1

87.5 3

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

62.9 41.4

65.2 42.2

67.5 42.9

69.8 43.6

72.2 44.2

74.8 45

77.4 45.7

80 46.4

82.7 47.1

85.5 47.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

66.7 3.4

69 3.4

71.3 3.4

73.7 3.4

76.3 3.5

79.1 3.6

81.9 3.6

84.8 3.6

87.9 3.6

91 3.6

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

699.7 1.2

710 1.5

719.3 1.3

727.4 1.1

736.2 1.2

745.2 1.2

753.8 1.2

762.4 1.1

771.5 1.2

780.8 1.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

30.3 -1.5

29.8 -1.9

29.1 -2.1

28.6 -1.8

28.1 -1.6

27.7 -1.5

27.4 -1.3

27 -1.4

26.7 -1.2

26.4 -1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

669.3 1.3

680.2 1.6

690.2 1.5

698.8 1.2

708.1 1.3

717.5 1.3

726.4 1.2

735.4 1.2

744.8 1.3

754.4 1.3

40.3 2.6

41.4 2.8

42.6 2.8

43.6 2.4

44.7 2.5

45.9 2.8

47 2.5

48 2.1

49 2

50 2.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

152.2 0.9

154.7 1.7

157 1.5

159 1.2

160.9 1.2

162.6 1

164.2 1

165.7 0.9

167.2 0.9

168.2 0.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

33.3 78.6 39.9

34.1 79.3 41

34.9 79.9 41.9

35.5 80.5 42.7

36.1 81.1 43.5

36.6 81.5 44.2

37.1 82.2 44.7

37.6 82.9 45.1

38.1 83.4 45.6

38.6 83.8 45.6

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

12.4 1.3

12.6 1.6

12.8 1.6

12.9 1.2

13.1 1.3

13.3 1.6

13.5 1.8

13.8 2

14.1 2.2

14.4 1.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

59.8 0.7

60.5 1.2

61.2 1.2

62 1.2

62.9 1.5

63.8 1.5

64.7 1.4

65.7 1.5

66.7 1.5

67.7 1.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

115.3 2.8

118.5 2.7

121.1 2.2

123 1.6

125.3 1.9

127.7 1.9

129.8 1.6

131.9 1.6

134.3 1.8

136.6 1.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

109.5 1.4

110.9 1.3

112.4 1.3

113.8 1.2

115.1 1.2

116.5 1.2

117.9 1.2

119.4 1.3

121 1.3

122.5 1.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

70.6 0.4

71.2 0.8

71.7 0.7

72.1 0.5

72.5 0.6

73 0.8

73.7 1

74.5 1

75.3 1.1

75.8 0.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

26.1 1.2

26.5 1.5

26.9 1.3

27.2 1.3

27.6 1.5

28 1.1

28.2 0.9

28.4 0.8

28.7 0.9

28.9 0.9

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

18 -1.1

18.2 1.2

18.3 0.8

18.5 0.8

18.6 0.7

18.7 0.7

18.9 0.7

19 0.7

19.2 0.7

20.4 6.7

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

65.2 0.8

65.7 0.9

66.3 0.9

66.8 0.8

67.3 0.8

67.9 0.8

68.4 0.8

68.9 0.7

69.4 0.7

69.9 0.6

65428.5

67502.5

69569.7

71642

73842.8

75986.1

78056.8

80144.7

82292.2

84585.3

1587.5 1.6

1613.5 1.6

1639.7 1.6

1666.2 1.6

1693 1.6

1720 1.6

1747.3 1.6

1774.9 1.6

1802.6 1.6

1830.5 1.5

801.9 1.3

812.3 1.3

823 1.3

833.9 1.3

845.6 1.4

858.7 1.6

872.3 1.6

886.2 1.6

900.4 1.6

914.6 1.6

4.6

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.6

4.6

14816 10722 4094

14905 10803 4102

14908 10865 4042

14936 11017 3919

15101 11280 3821

15105 11383 3722

14739 11115 3624

14264 10722 3543

13931 10495 3436

13917 10554 3362

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

60

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

Continued


J ac k s o n v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

164.3 4.9 76.4 87.9

172.5 5 80.1 92.4

181 4.9 83.9 97.1

189.6 4.8 87.6 102

198.5 4.7 91.4 107.1

207.9 4.7 95.4 112.5

217.5 4.6 99.6 117.8

227.3 4.5 103.8 123.5

237.5 4.5 108.2 129.2

248.1 4.5 112.9 135.2

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

90.1 3

92.9 3.1

95.6 2.9

98.3 2.8

100.9 2.7

103.7 2.8

106.4 2.6

109.1 2.5

111.7 2.4

114.5 2.4

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

88.4 48.5

91.4 49.2

94.5 49.9

97.6 50.6

100.7 51.2

103.9 51.8

107.2 52.4

110.5 53

113.8 53.5

117.2 54.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

94.4 3.7

97.8 3.6

101.3 3.6

104.8 3.5

108.5 3.5

112.3 3.5

116.3 3.6

120.4 3.5

124.5 3.4

129 3.6

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

789.7 1.1

800.1 1.3

809.1 1.1

816.3 0.9

822.8 0.8

830 0.9

836.8 0.8

843 0.7

849.7 0.8

855.8 0.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

26.2 -0.8

26 -0.9

25.7 -1

25.4 -1

25.2 -1.1

24.9 -1

24.7 -0.9

24.5 -0.8

24.4 -0.5

24.3 -0.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

763.5 1.2

774.1 1.4

783.4 1.2

790.8 1

797.7 0.9

805.1 0.9

812.1 0.9

818.5 0.8

825.3 0.8

831.4 0.7

51.5 2.9

53 3

54.5 2.9

55.7 2.1

56.7 1.8

57.8 2

59 2.1

60.2 1.9

61.3 2

62.3 1.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

169.1 0.5

169.8 0.4

170.5 0.4

170.9 0.2

171.2 0.1

171.5 0.2

171.7 0.1

171.9 0.1

172.2 0.2

172.3 0

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

38.8 84.4 45.7

38.9 85.1 45.7

38.9 85.8 45.7

38.9 86.4 45.7

38.8 86.9 45.5

38.7 87.5 45.4

38.6 88.1 45.1

38.5 88.8 44.8

38.4 89.5 44.5

38.4 89.9 44.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

14.7 2.5

15.2 3.1

15.6 2.5

15.8 1.7

16.1 1.5

16.4 1.8

16.7 2.1

17.1 2.1

17.4 2

17.6 1.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

68.8 1.7

70 1.7

71.1 1.6

72.1 1.4

73.1 1.4

74.2 1.5

75.2 1.3

76.2 1.3

77.1 1.2

77.7 0.7

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

139.4 2

142.4 2.2

144.6 1.6

146.5 1.3

148.2 1.2

150 1.3

151.8 1.2

153.2 0.9

154.7 1

156.2 1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

124.1 1.4

126 1.5

127.6 1.2

128.8 1

129.9 0.8

131 0.9

132.1 0.8

133.3 0.9

134.4 0.9

135.5 0.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

76.7 1.2

77.7 1.3

78.6 1.2

79.4 1

80.3 1.1

81.1 1

81.9 1

82.6 0.8

83.4 1

83.8 0.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

29.2 0.8

29.4 0.8

29.6 0.9

29.9 0.8

30.1 0.7

30.3 0.8

30.5 0.6

30.7 0.4

30.8 0.5

30.9 0.3

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

19.7 -3.6

19.9 0.8

20 0.7

20.2 0.7

20.3 0.7

20.4 0.7

20.6 0.7

20.7 0.7

20.9 0.6

21.9 5.2

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

70.3 0.7

70.8 0.6

71.2 0.5

71.5 0.5

71.9 0.5

72.2 0.5

72.5 0.4

72.8 0.3

73.1 0.4

73.3 0.3

87012.6

89471.2

91948.3

94426

96921.8

99564.9

102330

105087

108053

111160

1858.5 1.5

1886.6 1.5

1914.8 1.5

1943.2 1.5

1971.6 1.5

2000.2 1.5

2029 1.4

2057.9 1.4

2087.1 1.4

2116.5 1.4

928.9 1.6

943.4 1.6

957.9 1.5

972.6 1.5

987.3 1.5

1002.1 1.5

1017.1 1.5

1032.2 1.5

1047.6 1.5

1062.4 1.4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.6

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.8

13759 10471 3288

13371 10113 3258

13181 9994 3187

13193 10069 3124

13200 10161 3039

13128 10211 2918

12898 10107 2792

12670 9966 2704

12558 9914 2644

12428 9851 2577

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

61


La k e l a n d

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Summarie s

The Lakeland MSA is comprised only of Polk County. It is located in the western center of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus. It is home to a few attractions, including Cypress Gardens and Fantasy of Flight. Also, the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians conduct spring training in Lakeland and Winter Haven, respectively.

The Lakeland MSA will show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 5.8 percent annually, while the per capita income level will be at 28.3, one of the lowest in the state. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.5 percent, tied for lowest in the state, and the average annual wage level is expected to be at 41.2, also one of the lowest in the state. Population growth is expected to be one of the highest in the state, averaging 1.4 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 15,090.28 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to be 1.3 percent annually. The unemployment rate for the metro will average 11.7 percent, the second highest in the state. The Professional and Business Services sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging a 2.6 percent annual growth rate. This is followed by the Education and Health Services sector averaging a growth rate of 2.2 percent a year and the Manufacturing sector at 2.1 percent. The Federal Government sector is the only sector that will experience a decline, with an annual growth rate of -1.6 percent.

Quick Facts:

• Population estimate of 583,403 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 275,908 in April 2010 (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• An unemployment rate of 12.1% as of April 2010, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 33,283 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 6,644 employees • Lakeland Regional Medical Center – 4,540 employees • City of Lakeland – 2,600 employees

M etr o Ne w s Summarie s

• Watson Clinic – 1,500 employees

SF Polytechnic Funding: Big Day for Budget

• Geico – 1,850 employees

• GC Services – 1,000 employees • Rooms To Go – 900 employees

• FedEx National LTL – 850 employees

• Saddle Creek Corporation – 680 employees • Summit Consulting – 654 employees

Source: Lakeland Economic Development Council

• The Florida Legislature agreed to contribute $62 million for the first phase of the proposed University of South Florida Polytechnic campus.

• The Polk County Commission and the Lakeland City Commission have made multimillion-dollar commitments to the campus in recent years in an effort to jump-start the project.

• With Polytechnic, Polk County expects to attract higher-paying jobs and technology companies to the area. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, April 27, 2010

62

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010


La k e l a n d

Lakeland Electric’s ‘Smart Grid’ Wins Approval of City Commission

• City commissioners backed a $29 million Smart Grid plan for Lakeland Electric. The federal government will provide $13 million for the project. $15.9 million will come from utility bonds that will be paid back over the next decade and a half. • The Smart Grid will make the utility more effective, giving the utility the capabilities to address outages more quickly and monitor customers’ electric usage more precisely.

• City commissioners overturned the Utility Committee’s vote not to proceed with the Smart Grid plan. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, May 3, 2010

Polk to Hire 200 Teachers to Reach Class Size Limit

• In order to comply with the state’s class-size amendment, the Polk County School District plans to hire 100 elementary and 100 middle and high school teachers. • The amendment, voted on in November 2002, requires pre-kindergarten through third grade classes to be capped at 18 students, fourth through eighth grade classes at 22 students, and high school classes at 25 students by the 20102011 school year.

FSC Brings Back Tenure System to Lure Best Faculty

• Florida Southern College granted tenure to some faculty members for the first time in almost 40 years. • Eight faculty members were given tenure as part of the school’s strategic plan, adopted in 2004, designed to attract top-quality teachers. FSC was one of only 10 colleges in the state without a tenure system. • Faculty members have the choice of applying for tenure or continuing on a year-to-year contract basis. Eighteen of FSC’s 100 faculty members have applied for tenure during the 2010-2011 academic year. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, May 14, 2010

Polk County Workers Facing Layoffs

• Polk County is facing a $27.1 million revenue shortfall next year as a result of a declining tax base.

• County Manager Mike Herr suggested that Polk County will have to eliminate more jobs and cut services to combat the county’s budget challenges.

• Since the start of the recession, Polk County has cut 137 county jobs, laying off 64 workers in 2009 and 73 employees so far this year. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, May 28, 2010

• The total cost to the district is expected to be $11 million, $2.7 million of which the state will contribute. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, May 11, 2010

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

63


La k e l a n d

Lakeland MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

1

280.0

(Thousands)

260.0

200.0 180.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate

(Millions 2000 $)

160.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Lakeland Payroll Employment

Lakeland Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

8.0% 6.0%

25000.0

4.0%

20000.0

2.0%

15000.0

0.0%

10000.0

64

2.5

220.0

30000.0

5000.0

2

Lakeland Payroll Employment

Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product 35000.0

1.5

240.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.5

-2.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Gross Metro Product Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

-4.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Personal Income


La k e l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

20.2 9.7 7.8 12.4 16.3 8.1 34.3 27.7 39.9 3.2

20.4 9.8 7.8 12.6 16.5 8.5 34.7 27.9 40.2 3

20.7 10.5 7.9 12.8 16.6 9.1 35 28.1 40.4 2.9

20.9 4.9 8 12.9 16.7 3.2 35.2 28.1 40.6 2.5

21.2 4.7 8.1 13.1 16.8 3 35.6 28.2 40.8 2.3

21.4 4.8 8.2 13.3 16.9 3 35.9 28.4 41 2.1

21.7 4.8 8.3 13.4 17.1 3 36.2 28.5 41.2 2

22 5.3 8.4 13.6 17.3 3.5 36.5 28.6 41.4 2

22.3 5.4 8.5 13.8 17.4 3.6 36.8 28.7 41.7 2.1

22.6 5.4 8.6 14 17.5 3.4 37.1 28.8 41.9 2.3

22.8 5 8.7 14.1 17.6 3.1 37.2 28.8 42.2 2.4

23.1 4.8 8.8 14.2 17.7 2.8 37.4 28.8 42.5 2.6

23.3 4.7 8.9 14.4 17.9 2.7 37.7 28.9 42.8 2.7

23.6 4.7 9.1 14.6 18 2.8 37.9 28.9 43.1 2.7

196.8 1.8 15 4 181.8 1.6 10.4 -1.9 44.1 1.1 8.9 23.4 11.7 1.9 3.6 11.4 1.6 29.4 6.9 30.6 2.4 16.1 -0.2 8.3 0.4 1.3 -5.6 28.4 -0.8

198.1 2.3 15.2 4.1 183 2.1 10.5 0.6 44.5 2 9 23.6 11.9 1.9 3.3 11.6 3.5 29.7 6 30.8 2.7 16 -0.1 8.3 0.5 1.3 -2.7 28.4 -0.2

199.3 2.5 15.4 4.7 184 2.3 10.6 3 44.9 2.8 9.1 23.8 12.1 1.9 2.8 11.7 3.7 29.9 4.3 30.8 2.7 16.1 0.4 8.3 0.1 1.3 -1.9 28.4 0.2

200.8 2.7 15.6 4.7 185.2 2.5 10.8 4.8 45.3 3.7 9.2 23.9 12.3 1.9 2.4 11.7 3.3 30 3.4 31 2.4 16.3 1.1 8.3 -0.1 1.3 -1.2 28.5 0.7

202.3 2.8 15.7 4.6 186.6 2.6 11 5.6 45.8 3.9 9.3 24.1 12.5 1.9 2.5 11.8 2.9 30.3 3.1 31.2 2 16.4 2 8.3 0 1.3 -0.8 28.6 1

203.8 2.8 15.8 4.2 187.9 2.7 11.2 6.3 46.2 3.9 9.4 24.2 12.6 1.9 2.6 11.8 2.2 30.7 3.2 31.3 1.7 16.5 2.7 8.3 0 1.3 -0.5 28.8 1.3

205.2 2.9 16 3.6 189.2 2.9 11.4 7.3 46.6 3.8 9.5 24.3 12.8 1.9 2.8 11.8 1.6 31.1 4.1 31.3 1.5 16.5 2.5 8.3 0.1 1.3 -0.4 28.9 1.5

206.6 2.9 16.1 3.2 190.6 2.9 11.6 7.5 47 3.7 9.6 24.5 12.9 2 3 11.9 1.2 31.5 5 31.4 1.3 16.6 2 8.3 0 1.3 -0.5 29 1.7

207.9 2.8 16.1 2.8 191.7 2.8 11.8 7.5 47.3 3.4 9.7 24.6 13 2 3 11.9 1 31.9 5.2 31.5 1.1 16.6 1.4 8.3 -0.1 1.3 -0.6 29.1 1.8

209 2.6 16.2 2.3 192.8 2.6 12 7.2 47.6 3 9.8 24.7 13.1 2 2.7 11.9 0.8 32.3 5.3 31.5 0.8 16.6 1 8.3 -0.3 1.3 -0.6 29.3 1.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

193.4 -0.9 14.4 -1.3 179 -0.9 10.6 -6.4 43.6 -1.8 8.8 23.2 11.3 1.8 -4.8 11.3 -3.2 27.5 -1.6 29.9 3.9 16.1 -1.3 8.3 0.3 1.4 3.6 28.6 -0.4

193.7 -0.2 14.6 2.5 179.1 -0.4 10.4 -5.6 43.6 -0.2 8.7 23.2 11.3 1.8 -2.7 11.2 -2.2 28 0.6 29.9 2.6 16 -2.2 8.3 1.4 1.3 -0.9 28.5 -1.4

194.5 0.5 14.7 3.5 179.8 0.2 10.3 -5.3 43.6 -0.1 8.7 23.3 11.4 1.8 1.7 11.2 -0.5 28.7 3.7 30 1.7 16.1 -0.8 8.3 0.8 1.3 0.4 28.4 -1.3

195.5 0.9 14.9 3.9 180.6 0.7 10.3 -5.6 43.7 0.2 8.8 23.3 11.5 1.9 2.9 11.3 0.3 29 6.5 30.3 1.9 16.1 -0.1 8.3 0.4 1.3 -12.7 28.3 -1.6

14455 14536.3 14618.2 14718.9 14851.1 14983.6 15106.1 15253.2 15400.7 15546.4 588.1 589.6 591.3 593 595.1 597.4 599.9 602.9 606.1 609.2 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2 279.6 279.3 279 278.4 278 277.6 277.2 276.7 275.8 276.2 2.5 1.1 0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.8 -0.5 13.8 13.7 13.3 12.9 12.5 12.1 11.6 11.2 10.6 10.3 1715 1936 2569 3264 3974 4526 4949 5331 5720 5819 1849 2010 2421 3057 3737 4325 4693 5068 5416 5473 -135 -74 148 207 237 201 257 263 304 345

15656 15786.7 15913.4 16030.2 612.5 616 619.4 623 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 276.6 277.1 277.7 278.3 -0.2 0.2 0.7 0.8 9.9 9.5 9.3 9.1 5829 6024 6146 6145 5461 5638 5731 5699 368 386 415 446

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

65


La k e l a n d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

13.3 6 6.2 7.1

14.8 10.6 6.7 8.1

16.3 10.6 7.4 8.9

17.7 8.2 7.9 9.7

18.6 5.2 8.1 10.5

18.9 1.7 8 10.9

18.5 -2 7.7 10.8

19.8 7.1 7.7 12.1

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

12.7 3.9

13.6 7.8

14.7 7.4

15.4 5.3

15.8 2.4

15.6 -1.6

15.2 -2.2

16 5.4

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

26.2 24.8

28.2 26.1

30.2 27.1

31.6 27.6

32.4 27.6

32.6 26.8

31.7 26.1

33.7 27.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

33.7 4.1

34.2 1.6

35.6 4.1

37.3 4.8

37.8 1.5

38.3 1.4

38.7 0.9

39.7 2.8

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

183.7 1

194.6 5.9

207.1 6.4

211.6 2.2

211.7 0.1

208.3 -1.6

197.2 -5.3

193.6 -1.8

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

18.1 -1.9

18.2 0.7

18.3 0.3

17.9 -2.2

17.2 -3.5

16.3 -5.2

14.8 -9.3

14.4 -3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

165.6 1.4

176.4 6.5

188.8 7

193.7 2.6

194.5 0.4

191.9 -1.3

182.4 -5

179.2 -1.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

12.9 -5.1

14.4 11.4

16.2 12.6

16.9 4.1

15.8 -6.5

13.8 -12.2

11.7 -15.8

10.7 -8.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

42.1 -4.2

43.9 4.3

47.6 8.4

48.9 2.8

49 0.2

47.8 -2.5

44.7 -6.4

43.6 -2.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

9.1 22.5 10.5

9.4 23.5 11

10.3 25.3 12.1

10.4 26.1 12.5

10.1 26.4 12.5

9.6 26.1 12.1

9.1 24.1 11.6

8.8 23.3 11.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.2 -7.9

2.2 -1.1

2.3 3

2.3 2.9

2.2 -7.8

2.1 -3.5

1.9 -8.4

1.8 -5.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

11 2

10.9 -1

11.1 1.8

11.6 4.1

11.8 2.5

12.2 2.8

11.8 -3.3

11.3 -4.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

25.4 23.3

30.7 20.8

33.2 8.2

32.9 -0.9

32 -2.6

31.3 -2.4

28.7 -8.2

27.6 -3.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

22.9 1.7

24.1 5.3

25.6 6.1

26.6 4.2

28 5.2

29.1 4

28.8 -0.9

29.8 3.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

15 -5.4

15.3 2.2

16.5 7.7

17 2.7

17.4 2.9

17.4 -0.5

16.6 -4.5

16.1 -2.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.5 0.9

8 7.6

9 11.9

9.5 5.5

9 -5.3

8.6 -4.1

8.3 -4.2

8.3 0.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 -3

1.3 -2.4

1.4 4.4

1.4 -0.6

1.4 1.2

1.4 0

1.4 -1.3

1.4 0.6

25.3 1.6

25.5 1

26 2

26.7 2.6

27.9 4.3

28.3 1.7

28.6 1

28.6 0.1

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

11638.2

12533.3

13732.2

14304.5

14299.5

14341.9

14010.2

14395

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

509.9 2

523.5 2.7

541.1 3.4

559.3 3.4

573.8 2.6

580.4 1.2

583.8 0.6

587.7 0.7

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

239.7 0.7

247.4 3.2

256.1 3.5

261.6 2.2

266.7 1.9

272.9 2.3

275.5 0.9

279.1 1.3

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

66

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

5.5

4.9

4

3.6

4.4

6.6

11.4

13.8

6783 6165 618

9082 8288 794

12853 11707 1146

9538 8288 1250

4392 4007 385

3161 2359 802

1238 1236 2

1714 1748 -35

Continued


La k e l a n d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

21 6.2 8 13

22.1 5.2 8.4 13.7

23.2 4.8 8.9 14.3

24.6 6 9.3 15.3

26.1 5.9 9.8 16.3

27.5 5.7 10.2 17.3

29.1 5.6 10.7 18.4

30.6 5.3 11.1 19.5

32.3 5.5 11.6 20.7

34.1 5.4 12.1 22

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

16.8 4.5

17.3 3.4

17.8 2.8

18.5 4

19.2 3.9

19.9 3.7

20.7 3.6

21.3 3.3

22.1 3.5

22.9 3.5

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

35.4 28.2

36.6 28.7

37.6 28.8

38.9 29.3

40.4 29.8

41.9 30.3

43.3 30.8

44.7 31.2

46.3 31.7

48.1 32.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

40.7 2.5

41.6 2.1

42.7 2.6

43.9 2.9

45.2 2.9

46.5 3

48 3

49.4 3

50.9 3

52.4 2.9

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

196.2 1.4

201.5 2.7

207.2 2.8

211.5 2.1

215.3 1.8

219 1.7

222 1.4

224.5 1.1

226.9 1.1

229.4 1.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

14.9 3.9

15.6 4.5

16.1 3

16.3 1.2

16.3 0.1

16.2 -0.4

16.1 -0.5

16.1 -0.4

16 -0.6

15.9 -0.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

181.3 1.2

185.9 2.6

191.1 2.8

195.2 2.2

199 1.9

202.8 1.9

205.9 1.5

208.4 1.2

211 1.2

213.5 1.2

10.4 -3.1

10.9 5

11.7 7.4

12.2 4.4

12.4 1.8

12.7 2.3

13 2.1

13.2 1.9

13.3 0.7

13.4 0.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

44 0.8

45.5 3.6

47.1 3.5

48.2 2.2

48.9 1.6

49.4 1

49.7 0.7

50.1 0.7

50.4 0.6

50.6 0.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

8.9 23.4 11.6

9.3 24 12.4

9.6 24.5 12.9

9.9 24.8 13.4

10.1 24.9 13.9

10.2 24.8 14.3

10.3 24.6 14.6

10.5 24.5 14.9

10.6 24.6 15

10.8 24.6 15.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.9 2.9

1.9 2.6

2 2.9

2 1.8

2 1.4

2.1 1.5

2.1 1.6

2.1 1.1

2.1 1.1

2.1 0.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

11.4 1.2

11.7 3

11.9 1.2

11.9 0.5

12 0.7

12.1 0.6

12.2 0.5

12.2 0.2

12.2 0.5

12.3 0.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

29.2 5.8

30.2 3.5

31.7 4.9

33.2 4.7

34.9 5.1

36.7 5.2

38.2 4.1

39.4 2.9

40.6 3.2

41.9 3.2

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

30.4 2.2

31.1 2.2

31.4 1.2

31.9 1.6

32.6 1.9

33.4 2.5

34 1.9

34.6 1.8

35.2 1.7

35.9 1.9

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

16.1 -0.3

16.3 1.5

16.6 1.7

16.6 0.3

16.6 0

16.6 -0.1

16.6 -0.2

16.5 -0.3

16.5 -0.1

16.4 -0.5

8.3 0.5

8.3 0

8.3 -0.1

8.3 0.2

8.3 0

8.3 -0.2

8.3 -0.3

8.3 -0.5

8.2 -0.4

8.2 -0.3

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.3 -5.4

1.3 -1.1

1.3 -0.5

1.3 -0.1

1.3 0.3

1.3 0.6

1.3 0.7

1.3 0.8

1.3 0.9

1.5 13.9

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

28.4 -1

28.6 0.8

29.1 1.7

29.5 1.5

29.9 1.3

30.2 1

30.5 1

30.7 0.8

30.9 0.7

31.1 0.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

14792.9

15326.6

15846.6

16410

16968

17545.1

18078.5

18603.3

19162

19728.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

594.2 1.1

604.5 1.7

617.7 2.2

631.6 2.2

644.8 2.1

658 2

671.4 2

684.8 2

697.5 1.9

709.1 1.7

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

278.2 -0.3

276.5 -0.6

277.4 0.4

279.6 0.8

283.2 1.3

286.8 1.2

290.2 1.2

293.7 1.2

297.4 1.2

301 1.2

Unemployment Rate (%)

12.7

10.9

9.4

8.5

8.1

7.7

7.2

6.8

6.4

6

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3583 3385 198

5455 5163 292

6036 5632 404

6125 5596 530

6262 5555 707

6492 5615 877

6540 5570 970

6530 5527 1003

6563 5505 1057

6506 5451 1055

Continued

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

67


La k e l a n d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

35.8 5.2 12.6 23.3

37.6 5 13.1 24.5

39.4 4.8 13.7 25.7

41.3 4.6 14.2 27

43.2 4.7 14.8 28.4

45.2 4.7 15.4 29.8

47.4 4.8 16.1 31.3

49.5 4.5 16.7 32.8

51.8 4.5 17.4 34.3

54.1 4.4 18.2 35.9

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

23.6 3.3

24.4 3.2

25.1 2.9

25.7 2.7

26.5 2.8

27.2 2.8

28 2.9

28.7 2.6

29.5 2.6

30.2 2.5

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

49.8 32.8

51.5 33.3

53.1 33.7

54.7 34.1

56.4 34.6

58.2 35

60.1 35.5

61.9 35.9

63.8 36.3

65.6 36.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

53.9 2.9

55.5 2.9

57.1 2.9

58.8 2.9

60.5 3

62.4 3.1

64.3 3.1

66.3 3.1

68.4 3.1

70.5 3.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

232 1.1

235.5 1.5

238.4 1.3

240.7 1

243.4 1.1

246.2 1.1

248.7 1

251.2 1

254.1 1.1

256.7 1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

15.7 -1.4

15.4 -1.8

15.1 -2

14.8 -1.8

14.6 -1.6

14.4 -1.4

14.2 -1.3

14 -1.4

13.8 -1.2

13.7 -1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

216.4 1.3

220.1 1.7

223.3 1.5

225.9 1.1

228.8 1.3

231.8 1.3

234.5 1.2

237.2 1.2

240.2 1.3

243 1.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

13.6 1.4

13.9 1.7

14.1 1.7

14.3 1.3

14.5 1.4

14.7 1.9

15 1.5

15.1 1

15.3 1

15.4 1.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

51.1 0.9

52 1.7

52.8 1.6

53.5 1.3

54.2 1.2

54.8 1.1

55.3 1

55.9 1

56.4 1

56.7 0.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

11 24.6 15.4

11.3 24.8 15.9

11.5 24.9 16.3

11.7 25 16.7

11.9 25.2 17.1

12.1 25.3 17.5

12.3 25.4 17.8

12.4 25.6 18

12.6 25.7 18.3

12.8 25.7 18.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.2 1

2.2 1.3

2.2 1.2

2.2 0.7

2.3 0.7

2.3 1.1

2.3 1.2

2.3 1.4

2.4 1.6

2.4 1.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

12.3 0.2

12.4 1

12.5 0.9

12.6 0.9

12.8 1.1

12.9 1.1

13.1 1

13.2 1.1

13.3 1.1

13.5 1.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

43.6 4

45.3 3.9

46.7 3

47.6 2

48.9 2.7

50.2 2.8

51.3 2.3

52.6 2.4

54 2.8

55.4 2.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

36.3 1.1

36.7 1.2

37.1 1.1

37.5 1.1

37.9 1

38.3 1

38.7 1

39.1 1.1

39.6 1.1

40 1.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

16.4 -0.2

16.5 0.3

16.5 0.2

16.5 0

16.5 0

16.5 0.2

16.6 0.3

16.6 0.3

16.7 0.4

16.7 0.1

8.2 0.2

8.3 0.6

8.3 0.4

8.3 0.4

8.4 0.5

8.4 0.2

8.4 0

8.4 -0.1

8.4 0

8.4 0

1.4 -10.4

1.4 0.7

1.4 0.8

1.4 0.8

1.4 0.8

1.4 0.8

1.4 0.8

1.4 0.8

1.4 0.8

1.6 8.3

31.3 0.6

31.5 0.7

31.7 0.7

31.9 0.5

32.1 0.6

32.2 0.5

32.4 0.5

32.6 0.5

32.7 0.5

32.8 0.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

20295.5

20936.5

21568.9

22184.9

22843.3

23488.8

24105.7

24727.2

25371.5

26058.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

720.2 1.6

731.4 1.6

742.7 1.5

754 1.5

765.5 1.5

777 1.5

788.6 1.5

800.2 1.5

811.8 1.5

823.5 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

304.2 1.1

307.4 1.1

310.7 1.1

314.2 1.1

318 1.2

322.3 1.4

326.8 1.4

331.4 1.4

336.1 1.4

340.7 1.4

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

68

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

5.8

5.7

5.6

5.6

5.7

5.8

5.8

5.8

5.9

5.9

6277 5301 975

6223 5264 959

6153 5219 934

6183 5227 955

6224 5269 955

6177 5244 933

5995 5067 928

5760 4843 918

5587 4684 903

5537 4646 891

Continued


La k e l a n d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

56.5 4.5 19 37.5

59.1 4.6 19.8 39.2

61.6 4.4 20.7 41

64.3 4.3 21.4 42.8

66.9 4.2 22.2 44.8

69.8 4.2 23 46.8

72.6 4 23.8 48.8

75.5 4 24.6 50.8

78.4 3.9 25.4 53

81.5 3.9 26.3 55.2

31 2.5

31.8 2.6

32.6 2.4

33.3 2.3

34 2.2

34.8 2.2

35.5 2.1

36.2 2

36.9 1.9

37.6 1.9

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

67.6 37.1

69.7 37.5

71.8 37.9

73.8 38.2

75.8 38.5

77.9 38.9

80 39.1

82.1 39.4

84.2 39.6

86.4 39.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

72.8 3.2

75.1 3.2

77.4 3.1

79.8 3

82.1 3

84.5 2.9

87 2.9

89.5 2.8

92 2.8

94.6 2.9

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

259.7 1.2

263.2 1.4

265.8 1

267.6 0.7

269.2 0.6

271.1 0.7

272.8 0.6

274.1 0.5

275.6 0.5

277 0.5

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

13.6 -0.8

13.5 -0.9

13.3 -1.1

13.2 -1

13 -1.1

12.9 -1

12.8 -1

12.7 -0.9

12.6 -0.5

12.6 -0.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

246.1 1.3

249.7 1.5

252.5 1.1

254.5 0.8

256.2 0.7

258.2 0.8

260 0.7

261.5 0.6

263 0.6

264.4 0.6

15.7 1.9

16 2

16.3 1.8

16.5 1

16.6 0.8

16.8 0.9

17 1

17.1 0.8

17.2 0.8

17.3 0.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

57 0.5

57.3 0.4

57.5 0.4

57.7 0.2

57.7 0.1

57.8 0.2

57.9 0.1

57.9 0.1

58 0.1

58 0

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

12.9 25.8 18.5

12.9 25.9 18.6

12.9 26.1 18.7

12.9 26.2 18.7

12.8 26.3 18.8

12.8 26.4 18.8

12.8 26.5 18.7

12.7 26.6 18.7

12.7 26.8 18.6

12.7 26.8 18.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.5 1.9

2.5 2.5

2.6 1.9

2.6 1.1

2.6 0.9

2.6 1.1

2.7 1.4

2.7 1.4

2.8 1.3

2.8 0.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

13.7 1.3

13.9 1.4

14 1.2

14.2 1.1

14.3 1

14.5 1.1

14.6 1

14.7 0.9

14.9 0.8

14.9 0.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

57.2 3.1

59.2 3.6

60.6 2.4

61.7 1.7

62.6 1.5

63.7 1.8

64.9 1.8

65.6 1.2

66.4 1.2

67.4 1.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

40.4 1.2

41 1.3

41.4 1

41.7 0.8

42 0.6

42.3 0.7

42.6 0.6

42.9 0.7

43.2 0.7

43.4 0.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

16.8 0.5

16.9 0.6

17 0.5

17 0.3

17.1 0.4

17.2 0.3

17.2 0.3

17.2 0.1

17.3 0.4

17.3 -0.2

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8.4 -0.1

8.4 -0.1

8.4 0

8.4 -0.1

8.4 -0.2

8.3 -0.1

8.3 -0.3

8.3 -0.4

8.3 -0.4

8.2 -0.6

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 -7.7

1.5 0.8

1.5 0.8

1.5 0.8

1.5 0.8

1.5 0.8

1.5 0.8

1.5 0.8

1.5 0.7

1.6 6.9

33 0.4

33.1 0.3

33.2 0.3

33.3 0.2

33.3 0.2

33.4 0.2

33.4 0.2

33.5 0.1

33.5 0.1

33.5 0.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

26780.4

27527.3

28258.2

28977.2

29696.2

30464.3

31266.1

32051.1

32893.2

33796.8

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

835.2 1.4

847.1 1.4

859 1.4

871.1 1.4

883.1 1.4

895.2 1.4

907.3 1.3

919.3 1.3

931.5 1.3

943.6 1.3

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

345.4 1.4

350.1 1.4

354.8 1.3

359.5 1.3

364.1 1.3

368.8 1.3

373.5 1.3

378.2 1.3

383.1 1.3

387.7 1.2

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

6

6

6.1

6.1

6.2

6.2

6.2

6.3

6.3

6.3

5431 4549 881

5241 4346 895

5133 4239 894

5106 4207 900

5079 4179 901

5024 4129 895

4911 4024 888

4796 3905 891

4723 3821 903

4644 3732 911

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

69


M iami – F o rt Lauderda l e – M iami B each P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Summarie s

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Miami Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, this area is home to many sports teams, such as the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins, and the Florida Panthers. Two major universities reside in this metro – the University of Miami and Florida International University.

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Miami Beach area is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 4.7 percent annually, and the per capita income level, at 35.7, will be the second highest in Florida. Average annual wage growth will be 2.9 percent. The average annual wage level is expected to be 51.9, the highest in the state. Miami is expected to average a population growth of 0.9 percent each year. The area has the highest Gross Metro Product in the state, at a level of 217,695.88 (Mill). Employment is expected to grow at an average rate of 1.1 percent each year, while unemployment is expected to be 10.2 percent. Miami’s fastest growing sector is expected to be the Education and Health Services sector at 2.2 percent annually, followed by Professional and Business Services at 2.0 percent each year and Manufacturing at 1.9 percent. The Construction and Mining, Financial and Federal Government Sectors are expected to decline with annual growth rates of -0.5 percent, -0.6 percent and -1.3 percent respectively.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro area population estimate of 5,547,051 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,500,625 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Broward County population estimate of 1,766,476 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,279,950 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• A civilian labor force of 2,159,223 in April 2010 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 11.4% as of April 2010, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 245,289 unemployed people for the metro area. (Florida Research and Economic Database) TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Miami-Dade County Public Schools – 54,861 employees • Federal Government – 36,600 employees

• Florida State Government – 33,500 employees • Miami-Dade County – 32,000 employees • University of Miami – 12,765 employees

• Publix Super Markets – 11,760 employees

• Baptist Health South Florida – 11,615 employees • Jackson Health System – 10,500 employees • American Airlines – 9,000 employees

• Miami-Dade College – 6,500 employees

Sources: The Beacon Council, Agency for Workforce Innovation, and Enterprise Florida

70

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

M etr o Ne w s Summarie s Broward gets $1.24M in stimulus funding

• Broward County will be receiving a $1.24 million grant through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. • The stimulus money will be used for energy efficiency and other environmental initiatives.

• Possible uses for the money include an urban reforestation program, a rebate program for energy efficient devices, and a public outreach program.

Source: South Florida Business Journal, April 8, 2010


M iami – F o rt Lauderda l e – M iami B each

SEC launches investigation into Jackson hospital’s finances

FIU, Memorial Healthcare sign affiliation agreement

• The hospital lost $244 million in 2009. In September, Miami-Dade County issued $83.3 million in bonds to raise money for capital improvements at the hospital.

• Memorial Healthcare is the nation’s fifth-largest public health care system.

• The SEC has begun a formal investigation into Jackson Health System, a major hospital owned by Miami-Dade County.

• The SEC is concerned with the possibility that investors were deceived, and whether executives knew of the hospital’s financial crisis. Source: The Sun-Sentinel, April 20, 2010

• Florida International University has signed an agreement with Memorial Healthcare System that will allow the university’s medical students to receive clinical training from physicians at Memorial’s six hospitals.

• FIU’s Herbert Wertheim College of Medicine opened in August 2009.

Source: South Florida Business Journal, June 1, 2010

Passenger traffic, freight up at Miami International Airport

• Miami International Airport has reported that its numbers have risen for the 1st quarter of 2010.

• The number of passengers coming through MIA has increased by 3.5%, and freight has seen an increase of 25%.

• Miami International Airport is now the busiest airport in the state with 33.9 million passengers in 2009. Surpassing Los Angeles, it is now the second-largest U.S. airport for international travel, with 16 million international passengers in 2009. Source: The Miami Herald, May 15, 2010

BofA invests $3.8B in S. Fla. communities

• Bank of America has invested $3.8 billion into South Florida. The funds are part of the bank’s community development initiative, which includes loans for affordable housing, small businesses, and low-income or minority consumers, plus investments into economic development organizations.

• Miami received just over $1.5 billion, Fort Lauderdale received $1.43 billion, and West Palm Beach received $904 million.

Source: South Florida Business Journal, May 27, 2010 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

71


M iami – F o rt Lauderda l e – M iami B each Miami - Fort Lauderdale - Miami Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate (percent)

14.0% 12.0%

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Miami Payroll Employment 3000.0

(Thousands)

2800.0

2400.0 2200.0 2000.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate

1800.0

Miami Real Gross Metro Product 500000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

Miami Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

4.0% 2.0%

300000.0

0.0% -2.0%

200000.0 100000.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Miami Payroll Employment

6.0%

400000.0

72

0.8

2600.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

-4.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Gross Metro Product Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

-6.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Personal Income


M iami – F o rt Lauderda l e – M iami B each

Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

July 2010 Forecast

2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

241.5 5.9 109 132.5 195.1 4.4 43.1 34.8 49.8 3.3

244.1 6.1 110 134.1 196.5 4.8 43.4 35 50.3 3.3

246.9 6.6 111.1 135.8 197.8 5.2 43.8 35.1 50.7 3.4

249 4.4 112.1 136.9 198.7 2.7 44.1 35.2 51 3

251.6 4.2 113.3 138.3 199.9 2.5 44.5 35.3 51.3 2.9

254.5 4.3 114.6 139.9 201.4 2.5 44.9 35.5 51.6 2.6

257.8 4.4 116.1 141.6 203 2.6 45.4 35.7 51.9 2.5

261.2 4.9 117.6 143.6 204.8 3.1 45.9 36 52.3 2.5

264.5 5.1 119.1 145.4 206.4 3.3 46.4 36.2 52.6 2.6

267.6 5.1 120.7 146.9 207.9 3.2 46.8 36.3 53 2.8

270.4 4.9 122.5 147.9 209 2.9 47.1 36.4 53.5 2.9

273.8 4.8 124.1 149.7 210.7 2.9 47.6 36.6 53.9 3.1

277.1 4.8 125.7 151.4 212.3 2.8 48.1 36.8 54.3 3.2

280.5 4.8 127.2 153.3 213.9 2.9 48.5 37 54.7 3.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2174.4 -0.5 77.2 -0.9 2097.2 -0.5 86 -13 503.8 0.6 133.3 279.2 88.6 41.9 -4.6 145.8 -4.5 327.1 1.6 339.9 2.9 241.6 -1.7 92.4 -0.9 35.1 3.5 283.5 -0.8

2174.7 0.2 78 2.5 2096.7 0.1 84.7 -9.1 504.2 1.6 133.1 279.7 88.7 42.5 -1 144.5 -3.3 329.9 1.9 341.3 2.5 241.2 -1 92.5 -0.3 33.7 -0.9 282.2 -1.3

2179.2 0.5 78.5 4.1 2100.7 0.4 83.8 -7 504.7 0.7 133.5 279.9 89.4 43.3 3.1 144.8 -2.7 333.1 2.7 342.4 2.2 241 -0.1 92.9 1.3 33.3 -1.9 281.5 -1.4

2186.6 0.4 79.2 3.4 2107.3 0.3 83.9 -4.7 506 0.5 135.1 279.7 90.4 43.9 5.3 145.5 -0.6 335.3 3.1 344.9 1.9 241 -0.2 92.9 0.6 33.1 -13.6 280.9 -1.7

2197.4 1.1 80.1 3.7 2117.4 1 85 -1.2 509.6 1.2 137.2 280.4 91.9 44.2 5.5 146.6 0.5 337.5 3.2 347.4 2.2 240.5 -0.5 92.9 0.5 33 -6.2 280.7 -1

2209.6 1.6 81 3.9 2128.6 1.5 86 1.6 513.9 1.9 138.6 282.6 93.1 44.5 4.7 147.8 2.3 340.1 3.1 349.3 2.3 240.4 -0.3 93 0.5 32.8 -2.6 280.7 -0.5

2223.2 2 82 4.6 2141.1 1.9 87.4 4.3 518.7 2.8 140 284.4 94.6 44.9 3.7 148.8 2.8 341.8 2.6 350.8 2.4 241.9 0.4 93.1 0.2 32.7 -1.9 281.1 -0.1

2237 2.3 82.9 4.6 2154.1 2.2 89.4 6.5 523.3 3.4 141.2 286.2 95.8 45 2.5 149.3 2.6 342.7 2.2 353 2.3 244.1 1.3 93 0.1 32.6 -1.5 281.8 0.3

2250.9 2.4 83.6 4.5 2167.3 2.4 91.3 7.4 527.5 3.5 142.4 287.8 97 45.1 1.9 149.9 2.3 344.5 2.1 354.9 2.2 245.9 2.3 93.1 0.2 32.5 -1.4 282.6 0.7

2265.2 2.5 84.3 4 2180.9 2.5 93.3 8.5 531.9 3.5 143.8 289.2 98 45.2 1.6 150.3 1.7 346.5 1.9 356.6 2.1 247.7 3.1 93.3 0.3 32.5 -1 283.6 1

2278.1 2.5 84.9 3.4 2193.2 2.4 95.5 9.2 535.7 3.3 144.9 290.5 99 45.5 1.5 150.5 1.2 349 2.1 357.4 1.9 249.2 3 93.4 0.3 32.4 -0.8 284.5 1.2

2290.5 2.4 85.4 3 2205.1 2.4 97.8 9.4 539.2 3 145.7 292.2 99.7 45.7 1.7 150.6 0.9 351.3 2.5 359.2 1.8 250.1 2.5 93.3 0.4 32.4 -0.7 285.5 1.3

2301.1 2.2 85.8 2.6 2215.3 2.2 99.7 9.2 542 2.7 146.6 293.4 100.5 45.8 1.6 150.8 0.6 353.8 2.7 360.5 1.6 250.6 1.9 93.4 0.3 32.3 -0.5 286.4 1.3

2310 2 86.1 2.1 2224 2 101.4 8.7 543.9 2.3 147.1 294.2 101.2 45.8 1.3 150.9 0.4 356.3 2.8 361.5 1.4 251.3 1.4 93.4 0.2 32.3 -0.6 287.2 1.3

209625 5608 0.9 2904.5 2.2 11.9 1167 4115 -2947

210660 5619.4 0.9 2908.8 2 11.9 2672 4367 -1695

211580 5631.3 0.8 2913.5 1.1 11.6 7961 5574 2387

212753 5643.2 0.8 2918 0.6 11.3 11376 7769 3607

214432 5655.5 0.8 2922.3 0.6 10.9 14438 10062 4376

216136 5667.7 0.9 2928.2 0.7 10.5 16138 12018 4120

217918 5680.2 0.9 2932.3 0.6 10.2 18927 13580 5347

219831 5693.1 0.9 2938 0.7 9.8 20668 14793 5875

221685 5705.8 0.9 2943.3 0.7 9.4 23210 16282 6928

223518 5720 0.9 2948.8 0.7 9.1 25101 16979 8122

224820 5734.7 1 2955.6 0.8 8.7 26586 17539 9047

226311 5749.7 1 2961 0.8 8.4 28238 18425 9813

227778 5765.3 1 2967.1 0.8 8.2 29410 18918 10492

229093 5781.8 1.1 2973.3 0.8 8 30152 19081 11071

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

73


M iami – F o rt Lauderda l e – M iami B each

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

July 2010 Forecast

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

179.2 2.8 89.3 89.9

194.9 8.7 95.4 99.5

210.6 8.1 103.3 107.3

228.8 8.7 110.2 118.7

234.8 2.6 113.9 121

236.6 0.8 112.8 123.9

229.5 -3 107.1 122.5

239 4.1 108.6 130.4

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

170.1 0.8

180.1 5.9

189.1 4.9

200 5.8

199.8 -0.1

194.9 -2.5

188.6 -3.2

193.3 2.5

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

33.9 32.1

36.3 33.5

38.7 34.7

41.9 36.6

42.9 36.5

43 35.4

41.3 34

42.7 34.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

40.4 4

42.1 4.2

43.9 4.4

45.8 4.1

46.9 2.4

47.7 1.7

48.3 1.4

49.7 2.8

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

2198.1 0.2

2253.1 2.5

2336.8 3.7

2393.6 2.4

2416 0.9

2352.8 -2.6

2203.1 -6.4

2174 -1.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

103.4 -8

100.8 -2.5

101.1 0.3

100.6 -0.5

98.6 -2

92.5 -6.2

79.7 -13.9

76.8 -3.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2094.7 0.6

2152.3 2.7

2235.7 3.9

2293 2.6

2317.4 1.1

2260.3 -2.5

2123.4 -6.1

2097.2 -1.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

122.4 1.2

131.5 7.5

147.3 12.1

164.3 11.5

161.1 -1.9

134.9 -16.2

102.4 -24.1

87.2 -14.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

511.4 -1.1

517.9 1.3

531 2.5

544.2 2.5

550.4 1.1

541.6 -1.6

505.4 -6.7

503.1 -0.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

134.3 283.2 93.9

138.7 286.1 93.2

141.2 294.5 95.3

144.6 303.9 95.7

147.6 306.4 96.4

144.4 301.3 96

134.6 280.8 90

133.2 279.5 88.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

56.7 -7

55.8 -1.6

55.1 -1.2

52.4 -4.9

51.2 -2.4

49.7 -2.9

44.9 -9.8

42 -6.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

164.3 1

170 3.5

178.2 4.8

183.4 2.9

181.3 -1.2

170.8 -5.8

154.4 -9.6

146.4 -5.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

319.3 -0.3

331.7 3.9

357.2 7.7

368.7 3.2

371 0.6

354.2 -4.5

325.6 -8.1

326.7 0.3

284 3.4

293.5 3.4

301.5 2.7

307.9 2.1

318.8 3.5

326.2 2.3

330.2 1.2

338.7 2.6

229.4 2

240.2 4.7

247.5 3

251.6 1.6

257.8 2.5

256.9 -0.3

247.1 -3.8

241.3 -2.3

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

95.8 1.9

97.7 2

99 1.3

99.3 0.3

100.8 1.5

100.9 0.1

93.5 -7.3

92.2 -1.3

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

34.1 6.2

34.2 0.4

34.5 1

34 -1.4

34 -0.2

33.8 -0.4

34.1 0.9

35.3 3.3

277.4 1

279.8 0.9

284.3 1.6

287.1 1

291.1 1.4

291.2 0

285.9 -1.8

284.3 -0.6

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

185728

193976

206952

214662

215509

213335

204955

209320

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

5291.6 1.4

5372.4 1.5

5442.4 1.3

5464.9 0.4

5472.1 0.1

5507.9 0.7

5553.2 0.8

5601.9 0.9

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

2573.5 0.4

2610.2 1.4

2673.5 2.4

2742 2.6

2807.3 2.4

2852.3 1.6

2851.1 0

2899.1 1.7

5.7

5.1

4.2

3.6

4.1

6.1

10.2

11.9

37948 23579 14370

40726 23667 17059

41816 22542 19274

32960 15769 17191

14826 7602 7225

7688 3526 4163

3567 2230 1338

3283 3911 -628

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

74

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

Continued


M iami – F o rt Lauderda l e – M iami B each

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

July 2010 Forecast

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

250.5 4.8 112.8 137.7

262.8 4.9 118.4 144.4

275.4 4.8 124.9 150.6

292.3 6.1 131.3 161

309.8 6 137.8 172

327.7 5.8 144.4 183.3

345.9 5.5 150.9 194.9

364.3 5.3 157.4 206.8

384.5 5.6 164.3 220.2

405.8 5.5 171.2 234.6

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

199.4 3.2

205.5 3.1

211.4 2.9

220.1 4.1

228.8 3.9

237.3 3.7

245.7 3.5

253.6 3.2

262.7 3.6

272.1 3.6

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

44.3 35.3

46.1 36.1

47.8 36.7

50.2 37.8

52.4 38.7

54.7 39.6

56.9 40.4

59 41.1

61.4 42

63.9 42.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

51.1 3

52.5 2.6

54.1 3.1

56 3.4

58 3.5

60 3.5

62 3.4

64.2 3.4

66.4 3.4

68.5 3.3

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

2193.2 0.9

2244.1 2.3

2294.9 2.3

2332.4 1.6

2364.4 1.4

2395.8 1.3

2420.6 1

2441.2 0.8

2463 0.9

2485.5 0.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

79.7 3.8

83.2 4.4

85.5 2.8

86.2 0.8

85.9 -0.4

85.1 -0.9

84.3 -1

83.6 -0.8

82.7 -1

81.9 -1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2113.5 0.8

2160.9 2.2

2209.4 2.2

2246.2 1.7

2278.5 1.4

2310.7 1.4

2336.3 1.1

2357.6 0.9

2380.3 1

2403.5 1

84.7 -2.9

90.4 6.7

98.6 9.1

104.1 5.6

107.7 3.5

111.9 3.9

115.9 3.6

119.7 3.3

122.2 2.1

124.9 2.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

508.6 1.1

525.3 3.3

540.2 2.8

549.1 1.6

555.9 1.3

558.9 0.5

560.6 0.3

562.9 0.4

565 0.4

566.7 0.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

136.1 280.6 91.2

141.9 286.9 96.3

146.1 292.6 100.1

148.8 295.6 102.9

151.1 296.8 105.6

152.4 295.4 108.1

153.5 293.6 110.4

155 292.7 111.9

156.5 293 112.3

158.5 293.1 112.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

44 4.7

45 2.4

45.7 1.5

46 0.5

46.4 1

46.9 1.1

47.6 1.4

48.1 1

48.5 0.9

48.7 0.5

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

146.2 -0.2

149.6 2.3

150.7 0.8

151 0.2

151.9 0.6

152.9 0.6

153.5 0.4

153.7 0.1

154.2 0.4

154.5 0.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

336.5 3

343.9 2.2

352.6 2.5

361.9 2.6

370.6 2.4

380.4 2.6

388.1 2

393.6 1.4

400.4 1.7

407 1.6

346 2.2

353.8 2.3

359.7 1.7

366.1 1.8

373 1.9

382.9 2.7

390 1.9

396.7 1.7

403.6 1.7

411.2 1.9

240.7 -0.3

244.9 1.8

250.3 2.2

252.1 0.7

252.6 0.2

253 0.2

253.3 0.1

253 -0.1

253.6 0.2

253.2 -0.2

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

92.9 0.7

93.1 0.2

93.4 0.3

94.1 0.8

94.8 0.7

95.2 0.4

95.4 0.3

95.5 0.1

95.6 0.1

95.7 0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

33 -6.3

32.6 -1.5

32.3 -0.6

32.3 -0.3

32.3 0.1

32.4 0.5

32.6 0.6

32.8 0.6

33 0.6

35.8 8.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

281 -1.2

282.3 0.5

285.9 1.3

289.5 1.3

293.2 1.3

296.1 1

299.2 1

301.7 0.9

304.1 0.8

305.9 0.6

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

213725

220738

227000

233879

240844

248235

255076

261910

269264

276638

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

5649.4 0.8

5699.8 0.9

5757.9 1

5826.7 1.2

5906.9 1.4

5991.9 1.4

6080.3 1.5

6170 1.5

6260.9 1.5

6352.8 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

2920.5 0.7

2940.6 0.7

2964.3 0.8

2986.6 0.8

3021.6 1.2

3058.3 1.2

3095.2 1.2

3132.2 1.2

3167.9 1.1

3202.8 1.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

11.1

9.6

8.3

7.5

7

6.6

6.2

5.8

5.5

5.2

12478 8856 3622

21977 15408 6568

28596 18491 10106

31256 19193 12063

33803 19802 14001

36531 20456 16075

38049 20731 17318

39024 21029 17995

40275 21343 18932

41077 21588 19489

Continued

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

75


M iami – F o rt Lauderda l e – M iami B each

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

July 2010 Forecast

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

426.9 5.2 178.3 248.6

448.4 5 186.3 262.1

469.9 4.8 194.4 275.5

491.9 4.7 202.5 289.4

515.4 4.8 211.3 304.1

540.2 4.8 220.7 319.5

566.1 4.8 230.4 335.8

592.2 4.6 240.4 351.8

619.4 4.6 251.2 368.2

647.5 4.5 262.3 385.2

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

281.3 3.4

290.2 3.2

298.7 2.9

307 2.8

315.8 2.9

325 2.9

334.4 2.9

343.5 2.7

352.7 2.7

362 2.6

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

66.2 43.6

68.6 44.4

70.8 45

73.1 45.6

75.5 46.2

78 46.9

80.6 47.6

83.1 48.2

85.8 48.8

88.4 49.4

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

70.8 3.3

73.1 3.3

75.5 3.3

78 3.3

80.7 3.4

83.5 3.5

86.4 3.5

89.4 3.5

92.6 3.5

95.8 3.5

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

2505.9 0.8

2534.8 1.2

2560.9 1

2582.3 0.8

2606.2 0.9

2630.4 0.9

2653.6 0.9

2676.8 0.9

2701.7 0.9

2725.8 0.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

80.4 -1.9

78.5 -2.3

76.6 -2.4

75 -2.1

73.6 -1.8

72.4 -1.6

71.3 -1.5

70.2 -1.6

69.2 -1.4

68.4 -1.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2425.6 0.9

2456.3 1.3

2484.3 1.1

2507.3 0.9

2532.6 1

2558 1

2582.3 0.9

2606.6 0.9

2632.4 1

2657.4 0.9

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

128.1 2.6

131.8 2.8

135.6 2.9

138.9 2.5

142.5 2.6

146.6 2.9

150.3 2.6

153.5 2.1

156.7 2.1

160.2 2.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

570.3 0.6

578.2 1.4

585.3 1.2

591.1 1

596.5 0.9

601 0.8

605.5 0.7

609.8 0.7

613.9 0.7

616.2 0.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

161.2 292.9 113.7

164.9 294.4 116.4

168.3 295.8 118.7

170.8 297 120.7

173.1 298.2 122.8

175.1 299 124.6

177.2 300.4 125.6

179.1 302 126.4

181.1 303.1 127.5

182.9 303.6 127.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

49.2 0.9

49.8 1.2

50.3 1.1

50.7 0.8

51.2 0.9

51.8 1.2

52.5 1.4

53.4 1.6

54.3 1.8

55.1 1.5

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

154.8 0.2

156 0.8

157.2 0.8

158.4 0.8

159.9 1

161.6 1

163.2 1

164.8 1

166.6 1.1

168.4 1.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

415.6 2.1

424.1 2

430.8 1.6

435.5 1.1

441.7 1.4

448.2 1.5

453.6 1.2

459.2 1.2

465.9 1.5

472.3 1.4

416 1.2

420.3 1

424.9 1.1

429.2 1

433.4 1

437.5 0.9

441.8 1

446.5 1.1

451.4 1.1

455.9 1

253.5 0.1

254.8 0.5

255.8 0.4

256.4 0.2

257 0.2

258.2 0.4

259.8 0.6

261.5 0.7

263.5 0.7

264.6 0.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

96.4 0.7

97.3 1

98.2 0.9

99 0.8

100 1

100.6 0.6

101 0.4

101.3 0.4

101.8 0.4

102.2 0.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

33.9 -5.4

34.2 0.9

34.4 0.6

34.6 0.6

34.8 0.6

35 0.6

35.2 0.6

35.4 0.6

35.6 0.6

38.2 7.3

307.7 0.6

309.8 0.7

311.8 0.7

313.6 0.6

315.6 0.6

317.6 0.6

319.4 0.6

321.1 0.5

322.8 0.5

324.2 0.4

284014

292239

300463

308690

317453

325950

334125

342368

350851

359980

6446 1.5

6540.2 1.5

6635.2 1.5

6731.1 1.4

6827.7 1.4

6925 1.4

7023.3 1.4

7122.5 1.4

7222.1 1.4

7322.1 1.4

3239.5 1.1

3275.6 1.1

3312.3 1.1

3350.5 1.2

3390.9 1.2

3437.9 1.4

3487.2 1.4

3537.8 1.5

3589.1 1.4

3640.8 1.4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

76

5

4.9

4.8

4.9

4.9

4.9

5

5

5.1

5.1

41128 21482 19647

42067 21888 20179

42723 22309 20414

42971 22778 20193

43527 23448 20079

43880 23815 20065

43589 23504 20085

43083 22985 20098

42659 22739 19920

42943 23042 19900

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

Continued


M iami – F o rt Lauderda l e – M iami B each

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

July 2010 Forecast

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

677.1 4.6 274.1 403

708.6 4.6 286.7 421.9

740.8 4.5 299.2 441.6

773.5 4.4 311.2 462.3

807.3 4.4 323.5 483.8

842.7 4.4 336.6 506.1

878.4 4.2 350.2 528.3

915.3 4.2 363.8 551.5

953 4.1 377.8 575.1

992.2 4.1 392.6 599.6

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

371.5 2.6

381.5 2.7

391.3 2.6

400.8 2.4

410.4 2.4

420.4 2.4

429.8 2.3

439.2 2.2

448.3 2.1

457.7 2.1

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

91.2 50

94.2 50.7

97.2 51.3

100.1 51.9

103.2 52.4

106.3 53

109.4 53.5

112.6 54

115.7 54.4

119 54.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

99.2 3.6

102.7 3.5

106.2 3.5

109.9 3.4

113.6 3.4

117.5 3.4

121.5 3.5

125.7 3.4

129.9 3.3

134.4 3.5

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

2750.4 0.9

2779.5 1.1

2803 0.8

2820.3 0.6

2835.4 0.5

2852.6 0.6

2868.5 0.6

2882.1 0.5

2897 0.5

2909.4 0.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

67.7 -1

67 -1.1

66.2 -1.2

65.4 -1.2

64.5 -1.3

63.8 -1.2

63 -1.1

62.4 -1

62 -0.7

61.7 -0.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2682.7 1

2712.5 1.1

2736.9 0.9

2755 0.7

2770.8 0.6

2788.9 0.7

2805.4 0.6

2819.7 0.5

2835 0.5

2847.7 0.4

165 3

170.1 3.1

175.1 3

178.9 2.1

182.3 1.9

186 2

190 2.2

193.8 2

197.7 2

200.9 1.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

618.1 0.3

619.1 0.2

620.2 0.2

620.1 0

619.5 -0.1

619.3 0

618.6 -0.1

617.9 -0.1

617.6 -0.1

616.7 -0.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

183.7 304.9 127.3

183.7 306.4 127.1

183.4 308 126.9

182.7 309.2 126.5

182 310.2 125.8

181.3 311.3 125.2

180.4 312.6 124.2

179.5 314.1 123.2

178.8 315.7 122

178.6 316.4 120.6

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

56.3 2.1

57.8 2.7

59 2.1

59.8 1.3

60.5 1.2

61.3 1.4

62.3 1.7

63.4 1.7

64.4 1.5

65 0.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

170.5 1.3

172.7 1.3

174.6 1.1

176.4 1

178.1 1

180 1.1

181.7 0.9

183.3 0.9

184.7 0.8

185.3 0.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

480.3 1.7

489.7 1.9

496 1.3

500.7 0.9

504.9 0.8

509.9 1

514.6 0.9

517.7 0.6

520.8 0.6

524.3 0.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

461.1 1.1

467.1 1.3

471.8 1

475.4 0.8

478.2 0.6

481.5 0.7

484.3 0.6

487.7 0.7

491 0.7

494 0.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

266.9 0.9

269.4 1

271.8 0.9

273.7 0.7

275.8 0.8

277.7 0.7

279.5 0.6

280.8 0.5

282.8 0.7

283 0.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

102.5 0.3

102.9 0.3

103.3 0.4

103.7 0.4

104 0.3

104.4 0.4

104.6 0.2

104.6 0

104.6 0

104.4 -0.2

36.3 -5.1

36.5 0.6

36.8 0.6

37 0.6

37.2 0.6

37.4 0.6

37.6 0.6

37.8 0.6

38 0.5

40.3 5.9

325.7 0.5

327.1 0.4

328.3 0.4

329.3 0.3

330.4 0.3

331.4 0.3

332.2 0.3

332.8 0.2

333.4 0.2

333.9 0.1

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

369564

379412

389261

399053

408877

419326

430246

441056

452657

464904

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

7422.3 1.4

7522.9 1.4

7623.6 1.3

7724.7 1.3

7825.9 1.3

7927.5 1.3

8029.4 1.3

8132 1.3

8235 1.3

8338.9 1.3

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

3692.8 1.4

3745 1.4

3797.6 1.4

3850.5 1.4

3903.7 1.4

3957.2 1.4

4010.9 1.4

4065.1 1.4

4119.8 1.3

4172 1.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.2

5.2

5.3

5.3

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.5

5.5

5.5

42970 23083 19887

42740 22634 20106

42704 22639 20065

43054 23000 20053

43250 23386 19865

43079 23658 19420

42594 23644 18949

42261 23542 18718

42300 23634 18666

42260 23704 18556

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

77


Nap l e s – M arc o I s l a n d

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Summarie s

The Naples–Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier County only. Located on the southwest coast of Florida, the area is notable for numerous recreation and leisure activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the “Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida.”

The Naples–Marco Island MSA is expected to show strong growth in the economic indicators. The metro area is ranked number one in the State of Florida for personal income growth, with a 6.4 percent growth rate, and also for per capita income level, which is expected to be 53.8. Average annual wage will be the second highest in the state at a level of 49.5. The average annual wage is expected to grow at a rate of 3.0 percent, the highest in the state. Population growth will average 1.4 percent, one of the highest in the state and the Gross Metro Product level will be 13,469.03 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to average 1.6 percent each year, tied for the highest in the state. The metro will see an unemployment rate of 11.5 percent. The Manufacturing sector represents Naples’ fastest growing sector, growing at a rate of 3.1 percent each year. The Trade, Transportation and Utility and Information sectors follow with growth rates of 3.0 percent and 2.9 percent respectively. The Federal Government sector is the only sector expected to decline with an annual growth rate of -2.3 percent.

Quick Facts:

• Population estimate of 318,537 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 144,395 in April 2010 (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• An unemployment rate of 11.4% as of April 2010, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 16,511 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• NCH Healthcare System – 5000 employees

• Collier County School District – 4728 employees • Publix Supermarket – 3246 employees • Marriott Hotels – 2328 employees • Walmart - 1715 employees

M etr o Ne w s Summarie s

• Winn Dixie Stores, Inc – 1014 employees

$50M earmark still designed for Jackson Lab genetics project in Collier

• Collier County Sheriff’s Office – 1029 employees • Home Depot – 1012 employees

Source: Economic Development Council of Collier County

• The Florida State Legislature has promised $50 million to make Collier County a more desirable location for Jackson Laboratory. • The money is set aside specifically for the company. The county would like for Jackson Laboratory to be located next to the newly built Ave Maria University.

• A goal of Southwest Florida has been to diversify its economy. Officials say that a life sciences facility would not only accomplish this goal, but would establish thousands of new jobs. Source: Naplesnews.com, April 26, 2010

78

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010


Nap l e s – M arc o I s l a n d

NCH spells out time-out requirements for nonnursing staff

• NCH Healthcare System has notified department directors to encourage their employees to take time off during the slow, summer months, and avoid taking off time in the busier, winter months.

• The volume of patients in January through March spikes, and then drops off about 40% in the summer months. • Human Resources has not released the exact amount of money it expects to save, but they do anticipate significant savings by the hospital reducing staff in the summer months. Source: Naplesnews.com, April 28, 2010

Hurricane weather industry weathers storms

• Hurricane shutter companies in Southwest Florida are feeling the effects of the recession and several quiet storm seasons. • The Hurricane Protection Agency predicts a severe storm season this year, opening doors for old defunct companies. The state still leads the industry selling the most shutters in the U.S., but business is slow. • The HPA encourages consumers to not only look at the longevity of the companies, but the length of time that the owner has possessed the company. Source: Naplesnews.com, May 2, 2010

On Florida Coast, Homeowners Jittery

• On Memorial Day weekend, the beaches of Naples were packed, but the oil spill remained the topic of conversation. Local hotels reported few cancellations.

• There is still no evidence that the oil has reached this part of Florida’s beaches. • Homeowners are encouraged to take updated photos of their property if they are seeking to rent out their vacation spots.

• BP has promised $70 million to Gulf Coast states to promote tourism. Source: The Wall Street Journal, June 3, 2010

Lee commissioners consider sale of development rights in DR/GR

• Lee County is considering a plan that would change the county’s land-use guidelines. It would preserve important open space in the county, as well as give rural landowners more value through the ability to sell development credits.

• The plan strips away mining rights in the Density Reduction/Groundwater Resource (DR/GR) area. The land would then serve to replenish drinking water aquifers. • The general idea of the amendment is that a DR/ GR landowner can preserve agricultural rights to land while selling the commercial or residential development rights. Source: Naplesnews.com, June 7, 2010

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

79


Nap l e s – M arc o I s l a n d Naples MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.5

Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

(percent)

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate

1

45000.0 40000.0 35000.0 30000.0 25000.0 20000.0 15000.0 10000.0 5000.0

80

2

2.5

Naples Payroll Employment 220.0 200.0 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0

(Thousands)

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Naples Payroll Employment

Naples Real Personal Income

Naples Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $)

1.5

20.0%

(percent change year ago)

15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Gross Metro Product Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

-10.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Personal Income


Nap l e s – M arc o I s l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

20.8 9.5 5.2 15.6 16.8 7.9 64.5 52.1 47.5 3.6

21.1 9.6 5.2 15.9 17 8.3 65.2 52.5 47.9 3.5

21.4 10.4 5.3 16.1 17.2 9 66 52.9 48.3 3.5

21.7 5.9 5.3 16.3 17.3 4.3 66.6 53.1 48.6 3.1

22 5.6 5.4 16.6 17.5 3.9 67.3 53.5 48.9 2.9

22.3 5.6 5.5 16.8 17.6 3.8 68.1 53.8 49.2 2.7

22.6 5.6 5.6 17.1 17.8 3.8 68.8 54.2 49.5 2.6

23 6.2 5.7 17.4 18 4.4 69.7 54.7 49.9 2.6

23.4 6.4 5.8 17.6 18.2 4.5 70.5 55.1 50.2 2.7

23.7 6.3 5.9 17.9 18.4 4.4 71.2 55.3 50.6 2.8

23.9 5.9 6 18 18.5 3.9 71.5 55.3 51 3

24.3 5.5 6.1 18.2 18.7 3.5 72.2 55.5 51.4 3.1

24.6 5.4 6.2 18.5 18.9 3.5 72.9 55.8 51.8 3.2

25 5.5 6.3 18.8 19.1 3.6 73.6 56.1 52.3 3.3

109.9 1.8 2.8 4.5 107.1 1.7 9.1 -1.6 22.1 1.5 3.1 17.5 1.6 1.7 5 6.5 3 11.5 4.5 17.2 3.5 20.2 0.8 5.7 2.1 0.6 -4.7 12.6 0.2

110.7 2.4 2.8 4.5 107.9 2.3 9.2 1.6 22.3 2.1 3.1 17.6 1.6 1.7 4.6 6.6 4.8 11.5 3.9 17.4 3.7 20.2 1.1 5.7 2.2 0.6 -1.9 12.6 0.6

111.5 2.8 2.9 5.1 108.7 2.8 9.4 4.8 22.5 2.8 3.2 17.8 1.6 1.7 4.1 6.7 5.2 11.6 3 17.4 3.5 20.4 1.7 5.7 1.8 0.6 -0.9 12.7 1

112.7 3.3 2.9 4.9 109.8 3.3 9.6 7.2 22.8 3.8 3.2 18 1.6 1.7 3.6 6.7 4.7 11.7 2.6 17.6 3.3 20.7 2.5 5.8 1.6 0.6 -0.2 12.7 1.6

113.9 3.7 2.9 4.8 110.9 3.6 9.8 8.3 23 4.2 3.3 18.1 1.7 1.7 3.5 6.8 4.3 11.8 2.6 17.7 2.8 20.9 3.6 5.8 1.7 0.6 0.2 12.8 2

115 3.9 3 4.4 112.1 3.9 10 9.1 23.3 4.4 3.3 18.3 1.7 1.8 3.7 6.8 3.7 11.9 2.8 17.8 2.6 21.1 4.4 5.8 1.8 0.6 0.6 12.9 2.4

116 4 3 3.8 113 4 10.3 10 23.5 4.4 3.3 18.4 1.7 1.8 3.9 6.9 3.1 12 3.5 17.9 2.6 21.2 4.2 5.8 1.8 0.6 0.8 13 2.7

117.2 4 3 3.4 114.2 4 10.5 10 23.8 4.5 3.4 18.6 1.7 1.8 4.2 6.9 2.7 12.1 4 18 2.6 21.4 3.6 5.9 1.8 0.6 0.7 13.1 3

118.2 3.8 3 3 115.2 3.8 10.8 9.6 24.1 4.4 3.4 18.8 1.8 1.8 4.2 6.9 2.4 12.2 4.1 18.2 2.5 21.5 2.9 5.9 1.5 0.6 0.6 13.2 3.2

119.1 3.6 3 2.6 116.1 3.6 10.9 9 24.3 4.1 3.5 18.9 1.8 1.8 4 7 2.1 12.4 4.2 18.2 2.4 21.6 2.4 5.9 1.4 0.6 0.6 13.3 3.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

107.9 -1 2.7 3.9 105.3 -1.1 9.2 -8.8 21.8 4.7 3 17.1 1.5 1.6 0.5 6.3 -2.2 11 -3.7 16.6 1 20 -1.7 5.6 -2.2 0.6 0.3 12.5 -3.2 12790.3 322.6 1 148 4.6 13.8 867 994 -127

108.1 0 2.7 5.1 105.4 -0.2 9 -6 21.9 3.2 3 17.2 1.5 1.6 1 6.3 -1.5 11.1 -2 16.8 1.7 20 -0.8 5.6 0.2 0.6 -6 12.5 -0.4

108.5 0.5 2.7 4.1 105.8 0.5 8.9 -6 21.9 1.9 3 17.3 1.5 1.6 3.1 6.3 -1.1 11.3 1.7 16.8 2.9 20.1 0.2 5.6 1.9 0.6 -2.3 12.5 -1

109.1 1 2.8 4.5 106.3 0.9 8.9 -5.8 22 1 3 17.3 1.5 1.7 4.3 6.4 1.6 11.4 3.9 17 3.2 20.1 1 5.7 2.1 0.6 -11.7 12.5 -0.5

12872 12954.5 13066.5 13211.1 13351.9 13483.3 13646.4 323.5 324.4 325.4 326.4 327.6 328.7 330 1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 149.7 151.3 152.8 154.4 156 157.7 158.6 4.4 4.1 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.3 3.8 13.7 13.2 12.7 12.3 11.7 11.2 10.7 1134 1897 2348 2753 2961 3277 3504 1130 1371 1708 2046 2311 2480 2654 4 526 640 707 650 797 850

13808 13966.1 14089.8 14239.5 14385.1 14518.2 331.4 333 334.7 336.3 338.1 339.8 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 2 2 159.3 160.2 161.2 162.1 163.1 164.1 3.2 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 10 9.7 9.4 9.1 8.8 8.6 3863 4089 4259 4496 4653 4712 2876 2943 2983 3119 3209 3214 986 1146 1276 1377 1444 1498

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

81


Nap l e s – M arc o I s l a n d

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

12.7 6.3 4.5 8.1

15.2 19.8 5 10.2

16.8 10.6 5.6 11.2

19.1 14 6 13.1

20.1 5.3 6.1 14

19.7 -2 5.6 14.1

19.1 -3.3 5.1 14

20.4 7.1 5.1 15.3

12 4.2

14 16.7

15.1 7.3

16.7 11

17.1 2.5

16.3 -5.2

15.7 -3.5

16.5 5.4

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

44.2 42

51.1 47.2

54.7 49.1

61.4 53.6

64.2 54.6

62.5 51.4

59.8 49.2

63.4 51.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

40.3 8.3

42 4.2

44.2 5.1

45 1.8

46.9 4.2

46.2 -1.4

45.9 -0.6

47.3 3

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

111.7 3.1

118.3 5.8

125.9 6.5

132.6 5.3

129.6 -2.3

121.1 -6.6

110.6 -8.7

108 -2.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2.9 -5.3

3.1 5.9

3.2 3

3.3 3.6

3.3 -1.3

3 -9.7

2.7 -9.8

2.7 -0.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

108.8 3.3

115.1 5.8

122.7 6.6

129.3 5.4

126.3 -2.3

118.1 -6.5

107.9 -8.6

105.3 -2.4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

14.6 -0.8

16.8 14.8

20.3 21.3

23.9 17.6

19.7 -17.7

14.4 -26.6

10.4 -27.7

9.3 -10.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

22.4 -1.3

23 2.4

24.3 5.6

24.5 0.9

24.2 -1.3

23 -4.9

21.2 -7.6

21.7 2.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.1 17.7 1.7

3.3 18 1.7

3.4 19.1 1.8

3.2 19.5 1.7

3.4 19.2 1.6

3.3 18.2 1.5

3 16.7 1.5

3 17.1 1.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.7 -3.3

1.8 7.3

1.8 0

1.9 3.1

1.8 -4.9

1.8 -0.9

1.6 -8.8

1.6 -0.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.7 2.6

7.1 5.9

7.7 9.4

8.2 5.6

8.2 0.1

7.3 -10.4

6.5 -11.1

6.3 -2.7

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

12.9 26

14.2 10.2

13.1 -7.9

13.6 4

12.6 -7.6

12 -4.5

11.5 -4.1

11 -4.2

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

13.7 3.2

13.9 1.8

15 7.6

15.9 5.8

16.7 5.3

16.9 0.8

16.5 -1.8

16.6 0.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

18.8 1.2

20.4 8.1

21.8 7.3

22.2 1.7

23.3 4.8

22.8 -2

20.8 -8.9

20 -3.9

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

5.5 -0.3

5.4 -1.4

5.7 5.2

5.8 1.9

6 3.2

6 0.5

5.7 -4.6

5.6 -2.4

0.7 0

0.7 0

0.7 0

0.7 0

0.7 0

0.7 -3.6

0.7 1.3

0.7 -4.4

11.8 4.5

11.9 1

12.3 2.9

12.7 3.4

13.3 4.6

13.3 -0.3

12.9 -2.9

12.6 -2.2

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

11002

11865.7

13092.4

13940.3

13544.9

12923

12213.4

12696

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

286.3 3.6

296.9 3.7

306.9 3.4

311.7 1.6

313.7 0.7

316 0.7

318.9 0.9

322.2 1

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

133.1 2.7

138 3.6

144 4.4

151 4.8

151 0

148 -2

144.2 -2.6

147.3 2.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

82

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

4.9

4.2

3.4

3.1

4.2

6.8

11.2

13.9

5333 3401 1932

6100 4015 2084

5723 4034 1688

4272 3054 1218

1962 1163 799

955 668 287

816 642 174

1102 995 106

Continued


Nap l e s – M arc o I s l a n d

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

21.8 6.8 5.4 16.5

23.2 6.2 5.7 17.5

24.5 5.6 6.1 18.4

26.3 7.5 6.5 19.8

28.2 7.4 6.9 21.3

30.3 7.4 7.3 23

32.5 7.3 7.8 24.8

34.9 7.1 8.3 26.6

37.4 7.4 8.7 28.7

40.2 7.4 9.2 31

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

17.4 5.2

18.1 4.3

18.8 3.6

19.8 5.4

20.8 5.3

22 5.3

23.1 5.3

24.3 5

25.6 5.4

27 5.4

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

67 53.3

70.1 54.8

72.6 55.7

76.3 57.5

80 59

83.6 60.5

87.3 62

91 63.4

95.1 65

99.4 66.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

48.8 3

50.1 2.7

51.6 3.2

53.4 3.4

55.2 3.4

57.2 3.5

59.2 3.5

61.2 3.5

63.4 3.5

65.5 3.3

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

109.5 1.4

113.3 3.4

117.6 3.8

121.2 3

124.5 2.8

127.9 2.7

131 2.5

134.1 2.4

137.2 2.3

140.3 2.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2.8 4.4

2.9 4.8

3 3.2

3.1 1.5

3.1 0.2

3.1 -0.5

3 -0.3

3 -0.1

3 -0.4

3 -0.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

106.8 1.3

110.4 3.4

114.6 3.8

118.1 3.1

121.5 2.8

124.8 2.8

128 2.5

131.1 2.4

134.2 2.4

137.3 2.3

9 -3

9.7 7.4

10.6 9.7

11.2 5.7

11.6 3.6

12.1 4.4

12.6 4.2

13.1 3.9

13.5 2.7

13.9 2.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

22.1 1.6

22.9 3.8

23.9 4.4

24.7 3.3

25.4 2.7

25.8 1.8

26.2 1.5

26.7 1.8

27.2 2

27.7 1.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.1 17.4 1.6

3.2 18 1.7

3.4 18.7 1.8

3.6 19.2 1.8

3.7 19.6 1.9

3.8 19.9 2

3.9 20.1 2.1

4 20.4 2.1

4.1 20.7 2.1

4.2 21.1 2.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.7 4.3

1.7 3.7

1.8 4.1

1.9 3.1

1.9 2.8

2 3

2 3.2

2.1 2.7

2.1 2.7

2.2 2.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.5 2.1

6.7 4.5

6.9 2.5

7 1.7

7.2 2

7.3 1.9

7.4 1.9

7.6 1.6

7.7 1.8

7.8 1.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

11.4 3.5

11.7 2.8

12.2 4

12.7 4.1

13.3 4.9

14 4.9

14.6 4.4

15.1 3.7

15.7 3.8

16.3 3.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

17.1 3.3

17.6 3

18.1 2.5

18.7 3.2

19.3 3.6

20.1 4.2

20.9 3.6

21.6 3.5

22.3 3.3

23.1 3.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

20.1 0.8

20.8 3

21.4 3.2

21.8 1.7

22.1 1.3

22.4 1.3

22.6 1.2

22.9 1.1

23.2 1.4

23.4 0.9

5.7 2.1

5.8 1.7

5.9 1.6

6 2

6.1 1.8

6.2 1.5

6.3 1.5

6.4 1.3

6.4 1.3

6.5 1.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.6 -5.3

0.6 -0.1

0.6 0.7

0.6 1.1

0.6 1.5

0.7 1.8

0.7 2

0.7 2

0.7 2.1

0.8 17.7

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

12.6 -0.2

12.8 1.7

13.2 3

13.6 3

13.9 2.9

14.3 2.5

14.7 2.5

15 2.3

15.3 2.2

15.6 2

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

13146

13725.9

14308.2

14946

15607.2

16312.6

17004

17714.7

18466.7

19240.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

325.9 1.2

330.8 1.5

337.2 1.9

344.6 2.2

353.1 2.5

362.8 2.7

372.7 2.8

383 2.8

393.6 2.8

404.4 2.8

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

153.6 4.3

159 3.5

162.6 2.3

166.5 2.4

171.4 2.9

176.3 2.9

181.3 2.8

186.3 2.8

191.5 2.8

196.5 2.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%)

12.5

10.4

9

8.1

7.8

7.4

7

6.7

6.3

6

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2490 1859 630

3683 2739 945

4530 3131 1399

4844 3206 1638

5187 3263 1923

5532 3365 2167

5741 3427 2314

5910 3502 2408

6083 3554 2529

6235 3601 2634

Continued

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

83


Nap l e s – M arc o I s l a n d

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

43 7 9.7 33.3

45.9 6.7 10.3 35.6

48.9 6.4 10.9 38

52 6.4 11.5 40.5

55.3 6.4 12.2 43.2

59 6.5 12.9 46.1

62.8 6.6 13.6 49.2

66.8 6.3 14.4 52.4

70.9 6.2 15.3 55.7

75.3 6.1 16.1 59.1

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

28.3 5.1

29.7 4.9

31.1 4.5

32.5 4.5

33.9 4.5

35.5 4.6

37.1 4.7

38.7 4.4

40.4 4.3

42.1 4.2

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

103.5 68.2

107.5 69.6

111.4 70.8

115.4 72

119.6 73.3

124.1 74.6

128.8 76.1

133.4 77.3

138 78.6

142.7 79.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

67.7 3.4

70 3.4

72.3 3.3

74.6 3.3

77.1 3.4

79.8 3.5

82.6 3.5

85.4 3.4

88.4 3.5

91.5 3.5

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

143.4 2.2

146.9 2.5

150.3 2.3

153.5 2.2

157 2.2

160.6 2.3

164.3 2.3

168.1 2.3

172.1 2.3

175.9 2.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

3 -1.2

2.9 -1.9

2.9 -2.2

2.8 -1.8

2.8 -1.4

2.7 -1.2

2.7 -1

2.7 -1.1

2.7 -0.9

2.6 -0.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

140.4 2.2

144 2.6

147.4 2.4

150.7 2.2

154.2 2.3

157.9 2.4

161.6 2.4

165.5 2.4

169.4 2.4

173.3 2.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

14.3 3.1

14.8 3.3

15.3 3.4

15.7 3

16.2 3.1

16.8 3.7

17.4 3.2

17.8 2.8

18.3 2.7

18.9 2.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

28.2 1.9

28.9 2.5

29.6 2.4

30.3 2.2

30.9 2.1

31.6 2.1

32.3 2.2

33 2.2

33.7 2.1

34.3 1.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.4 21.4 2.2

4.6 21.9 2.3

4.7 22.3 2.4

4.9 22.8 2.5

5 23.2 2.6

5.2 23.7 2.6

5.3 24.1 2.7

5.5 24.7 2.8

5.6 25.1 2.8

5.8 25.6 2.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.3 2.5

2.3 2.7

2.4 2.6

2.4 2.4

2.5 2.4

2.6 2.8

2.6 3

2.7 3.2

2.8 3.4

2.9 3.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.9 1.5

8.1 2.2

8.3 2.1

8.4 2.1

8.6 2.3

8.8 2.3

9 2.3

9.2 2.3

9.5 2.3

9.7 2.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

17 4.2

17.7 4.1

18.3 3.5

18.8 3

19.5 3.4

20.2 3.5

20.8 3.3

21.6 3.4

22.3 3.7

23.1 3.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

23.7 2.7

24.3 2.6

24.9 2.5

25.5 2.4

26.1 2.3

26.7 2.4

27.4 2.5

28.1 2.5

28.8 2.6

29.5 2.4

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

23.7 1.2

24.1 1.6

24.4 1.4

24.7 1.3

25.1 1.3

25.4 1.6

25.9 1.7

26.3 1.8

26.8 1.8

27.2 1.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

6.7 2.1

6.8 2.4

7 2.1

7.1 2.1

7.3 2.2

7.4 1.9

7.5 1.6

7.7 1.6

7.8 1.7

7.9 1.7

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.7 -11

0.7 1.8

0.8 1.8

0.8 1.8

0.8 1.9

0.8 1.9

0.8 1.9

0.8 1.9

0.8 1.9

0.9 9.4

15.9 2

16.3 2

16.6 1.9

16.9 1.8

17.2 1.9

17.5 1.9

17.9 1.9

18.2 1.9

18.5 1.8

18.8 1.7

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

20023.3

20882.6

21752.1

22640.1

23585.8

24543.9

25500.3

26477.6

27493.4

28579.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

415.5 2.7

426.9 2.7

438.5 2.7

450.4 2.7

462.6 2.7

475.1 2.7

487.9 2.7

500.8 2.6

514 2.6

527.4 2.6

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

201.4 2.5

206.3 2.5

211.4 2.5

216.7 2.5

222.3 2.6

228.5 2.8

234.9 2.8

241.5 2.8

248.2 2.8

255.1 2.8

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

84

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

5.8

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.7

5.8

5.8

5.8

5.9

6

6331 3621 2710

6516 3708 2808

6682 3810 2873

6755 3911 2845

6867 4034 2833

6941 4109 2832

6884 4074 2810

6778 4000 2778

6692 3970 2722

6713 4033 2680

Continued


Nap l e s – M arc o I s l a n d

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

79.9 6.2 17.1 62.8

84.9 6.2 18.2 66.7

90.1 6.1 19.3 70.8

95.5 6 20.3 75.1

101.2 6 21.4 79.7

107.2 5.9 22.6 84.6

113.3 5.8 23.8 89.5

119.8 5.7 25.1 94.7

126.6 5.6 26.5 100.1

133.7 5.6 27.9 105.8

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

43.8 4.2

45.7 4.2

47.6 4.1

49.5 4

51.4 4

53.5 3.9

55.5 3.7

57.5 3.7

59.6 3.6

61.7 3.6

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

147.7 81

152.8 82.3

158 83.5

163.2 84.6

168.5 85.7

174 86.8

179.4 87.8

184.9 88.7

190.5 89.6

196.2 90.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

94.7 3.5

98.1 3.6

101.5 3.4

104.9 3.4

108.4 3.3

112 3.3

115.7 3.4

119.6 3.3

123.5 3.3

127.7 3.4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

180.2 2.4

184.9 2.6

189.3 2.4

193.2 2.1

197.1 2

201.2 2.1

205.4 2.1

209.6 2

213.8 2

217.9 1.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2.6 -0.6

2.6 -0.7

2.6 -0.9

2.6 -0.8

2.5 -0.9

2.5 -0.8

2.5 -0.7

2.5 -0.6

2.5 -0.3

2.5 -0.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

177.6 2.5

182.3 2.6

186.7 2.4

190.7 2.1

194.6 2

198.7 2.1

202.9 2.1

207.1 2

211.4 2.1

215.4 1.9

19.5 3.7

20.3 3.8

21 3.6

21.6 2.8

22.1 2.5

22.7 2.6

23.3 2.7

23.9 2.5

24.5 2.5

25 2.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

35 2

35.7 1.9

36.4 1.9

37 1.7

37.6 1.7

38.3 1.7

38.9 1.7

39.6 1.8

40.3 1.8

41 1.7

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.9 26.1 2.9

6 26.6 2.9

6.1 27.2 3

6.1 27.7 3

6.2 28.2 3

6.3 28.8 3.1

6.3 29.4 3.1

6.4 30 3.1

6.5 30.6 3.1

6.6 31.2 3.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3 3.7

3.1 4.2

3.2 3.6

3.3 2.8

3.4 2.7

3.5 2.9

3.6 3.2

3.7 3.1

3.9 3

4 2.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

9.9 2.6

10.2 2.6

10.4 2.4

10.7 2.3

10.9 2.2

11.2 2.3

11.4 2.2

11.6 2.1

11.9 2

12.1 1.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

24 3.8

25 4.2

25.9 3.5

26.7 3

27.5 3

28.3 3.1

29.2 3.1

30 2.8

30.9 2.8

31.9 3.2

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

30.3 2.6

31.1 2.8

31.9 2.4

32.6 2.2

33.2 2

33.9 2.1

34.6 2.2

35.4 2.3

36.2 2.2

37 2.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

27.7 2

28.3 2

28.9 1.9

29.4 1.7

29.9 1.8

30.4 1.7

30.9 1.7

31.4 1.5

31.9 1.7

32.3 1.1

8 1.5

8.2 1.5

8.3 1.6

8.4 1.6

8.5 1.5

8.7 1.6

8.8 1.3

8.9 1.1

9 1.2

9.1 1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.9 -6.3

0.9 1.9

0.9 1.9

0.9 1.9

0.9 1.9

0.9 1.9

1 1.9

1 1.8

1 1.7

1.1 8

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

19.2 1.8

19.5 1.7

19.8 1.6

20.1 1.6

20.5 1.6

20.8 1.6

21.1 1.5

21.4 1.4

21.7 1.5

22 1.4

29732.2

30934.8

32158.5

33394

34654.6

35998

37419.2

38858.7

40397.3

42040.5

541 2.6

555.4 2.6

570 2.6

585 2.6

600.2 2.6

615.8 2.6

631.8 2.6

648 2.6

664.6 2.6

681.7 2.6

262.2 2.8

269.4 2.8

276.8 2.7

284.3 2.7

292 2.7

299.8 2.7

307.8 2.7

316 2.7

324.4 2.7

332.8 2.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

6

6.1

6.1

6.2

6.3

6.3

6.4

6.4

6.5

6.5

6691 4050 2641

6603 3979 2624

6553 3986 2567

6570 4055 2515

6570 4126 2444

6519 4176 2343

6407 4167 2240

6311 4143 2168

6270 4153 2116

6214 4156 2058

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

85


Oca l a

P r o fi l e s Comprised of Marion County only, the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area in the center of the state. The second-largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area. Quick Facts:

• Population estimate of 328,547 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 134,767 in April 2010 (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• An unemployment rate of 13.9% as of April 2010, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 18,750 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• Marion County Public Schools – 6,084 employees • Munroe Regional Medical Center – 2,500 employees • State of Florida (all departments) – 2,500 employees • Walmart Stores, Inc. – 2,370 employees

• Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,404 employees

• Marion County Board of County Commissioners – 1,400 employees • Ocala Regional Medical Center – 1,301 employees

• Taylor, Bean & Whitaker Mortgage Corporation – 1,238 employees • AT&T – 1,000 employees

• City of Ocala – 979 employees

Source: Ocala/Marion County Economic Development Council

Out l o o k Summarie s The Ocala MSA is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 5.4 percent annually, among the highest in the state. Per capita income level is the lowest in the state at a level of 26.5. Relative to other metro areas, Ocala will have the second lowest average annual wage level, at 39.7. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.8 percent. The metro has one of the highest expected annual population growths in the state, at 1.4 percent. The Gross Metro Product is expected to be 6,290.70 (Mill), the lowest in the state. Employment growth is expected to average a rate of 1.4 percent annually. Unemployment for the metro will be 13.0 percent, the highest in the state. The Professional and Business Services sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in Ocala, averaging an annual growth rate of 4.5 percent. The Education and Health Services sector and the Manufacturing sector follow with growth rates of 3.1 percent and 1.8 percent respectively. The Financial sector is the only sector that will experience negative growth, with a growth rate of -1.7 percent.

M etr o Ne w s Summarie s For Marion County school budget, a mixed picture

• Despite a new state budget that would give the school district another $1 per child, Marion County School District expects to be about $12 million short in their budget for the 2010-2011 school year.

• The budget deficit is due to Florida’s class-size restriction laws that become effective in 2010. Marion County projects that it will have to hire at least 200 new teachers to meet the class-size limits in every classroom. Source: The Ocala Star Banner, April 28, 2010

86

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010


Oca l a

Stimulus funding keeps Cone rolling

• Cone Distributing, an Ocala-based beer manufacturer, was granted $10.2 million in taxexempt bonds to help build a new distribution center in Ocala. The center is expected to create 50 new jobs. • The funding was provided to Marion County as part of a federal stimulus package in 2009, after the county was declared an economic recovery zone.

Beloved Marion Theatre is back in business

• The Marion Theatre re-opened on May 26 after being closed for renovations since 2009. • The theatre originally opened in 1941 and has since been closed and re-opened several times.

• The theatre was re-opened by Carmike Cinemas, a Georgia-based company and showed “Sex and the City 2” as its first movie. Source: The Ocala Star Banner, May 26, 2010

Source: The Ocala Star Banner, May 5, 2010

Building Division: Marion County’s building industry is now on the rise

• In both March and April, Marion County issued over 50 single-family home building permits and over 1,000 building permits of all kinds.

• The county’s Building Division is expected to hire several new staff in order to keep up with the new permit applications. Source: The Ocala Star Banner, May 12, 2010

Businessman set to hire 30 for lab opening in August

• Businessman John H. Howard is planning to open Pathlab Services, Inc., a medical testing center that will accept samples and return them in 3 days, a turnaround that is much faster than larger companies can guarantee.

• The entire project has been done locally, including a local architect and contractors for the building. • Howard hopes to hold an open house in August for local physicians. Source: The Ocala Star Banner, May 21, 2010

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

87


Oca l a Ocala MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

(percent)

0.6

88

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Ocala Payroll Employment 160.0

(Thousands)

140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate

60.0

(Millions 2000 $)

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Ocala Payroll Employment

Ocala Real Personal Income

Ocala Real Gross Metro Product 18000.0 16000.0 14000.0 12000.0 10000.0 8000.0 6000.0 4000.0 2000.0

0.8

10.0%

(percent change year ago)

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Gross Metro Product Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Personal Income


Oca l a

Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

10.5 5.7 3.5 7.1 8.5 4.1 31.8 25.7 38.3 3.4

10.7 6.1 3.5 7.2 8.6 4.9 32.2 25.9 38.6 3.3

10.8 7 3.5 7.3 8.7 5.6 32.6 26.1 38.8 3.3

10.9 5.8 3.6 7.4 8.7 4.1 32.9 26.2 39.1 2.8

11.1 5.5 3.6 7.5 8.8 3.8 33.2 26.4 39.3 2.7

11.3 5.6 3.7 7.6 8.9 3.7 33.6 26.6 39.5 2.5

11.4 5.6 3.7 7.7 9 3.8 33.9 26.7 39.8 2.4

11.6 6.1 3.8 7.8 9.1 4.3 34.3 26.9 40 2.4

11.8 6.3 3.8 8 9.2 4.4 34.7 27.1 40.3 2.5

12 6.2 3.9 8.1 9.3 4.3 34.9 27.1 40.6 2.6

12.1 5.8 4 8.1 9.3 3.8 35.1 27.1 40.9 2.8

12.3 5.5 4 8.2 9.4 3.5 35.3 27.2 41.2 3

12.4 5.4 4.1 8.3 9.5 3.4 35.6 27.3 41.5 3.1

12.6 5.4 4.2 8.4 9.6 3.5 35.9 27.3 41.8 3.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

90 -1.8 6.4 -1.6 83.6 -1.8 6.4 -11.1 20 -1.2 3.4 14.1 2.4 1.6 -2.9 4.5 -10.5 7.6 -0.5 12.7 2 9.6 -1.3 3.7 1.3 0.8 11.9 16.6 -0.8

90.2 -0.3 6.4 1.9 83.7 -0.5 6.3 -8.8 20.1 0.3 3.4 14.1 2.4 1.6 0.7 4.5 -2.8 7.8 1.7 12.8 2.3 9.6 0.2 3.7 -0.7 0.8 7.3 16.6 -1.2

90.5 0.6 6.5 2.7 84 0.4 6.3 -6.2 20.1 0.5 3.3 14.2 2.4 1.6 3.6 4.5 -0.4 8 5.7 12.8 1.4 9.6 0.7 3.7 1.5 0.8 -1.4 16.6 -0.5

91 1 6.5 3.6 84.5 0.9 6.3 -4.6 20.1 0.5 3.4 14.2 2.5 1.7 3 4.5 1 8.1 8.2 13 2.8 9.7 0.7 3.8 1.5 0.7 -11.8 16.6 -1

91.7 1.9 6.6 3.8 85.1 1.7 6.4 -0.7 20.2 1.2 3.4 14.3 2.5 1.7 3.8 4.6 2.3 8.3 8.4 13.1 3.3 9.7 0.6 3.8 1.5 0.7 -4.8 16.6 -0.2

92.4 2.5 6.7 4 85.7 2.4 6.4 1.8 20.4 1.9 3.5 14.5 2.5 1.7 3.4 4.7 4.1 8.4 7.4 13.3 3.6 9.7 0.8 3.8 1.6 0.7 -2.1 16.7 0.4

93.1 2.9 6.8 4.8 86.3 2.7 6.5 4.5 20.6 2.7 3.5 14.6 2.6 1.7 3 4.7 4.5 8.5 5.6 13.3 3.6 9.8 1.4 3.8 1.3 0.7 -1.3 16.7 0.9

94 3.3 6.9 4.9 87.1 3.2 6.7 6.4 20.9 3.7 3.5 14.7 2.6 1.7 2.5 4.7 4 8.5 4.6 13.4 3.4 9.9 2.2 3.8 1.1 0.7 -0.6 16.8 1.4

94.9 3.5 6.9 4.8 88 3.4 6.8 7.2 21.1 4.1 3.6 14.8 2.7 1.7 2.6 4.8 3.7 8.6 4.5 13.5 2.8 10 3.2 3.8 1.2 0.7 -0.2 16.9 1.7

95.8 3.6 7 4.3 88.8 3.6 6.9 8 21.3 4.2 3.6 14.9 2.7 1.7 2.8 4.8 3 8.8 4.9 13.6 2.5 10.1 3.9 3.8 1.3 0.7 0.1 17 2

96.6 3.7 7 3.8 89.6 3.7 7.1 9 21.5 4.2 3.6 15 2.7 1.7 3 4.8 2.4 9 6 13.6 2.4 10.1 3.7 3.8 1.3 0.7 0.3 17.1 2.2

97.5 3.7 7.1 3.4 90.4 3.7 7.3 9.1 21.7 4.1 3.7 15.2 2.8 1.7 3.2 4.8 2 9.1 7.1 13.7 2.2 10.2 3.1 3.8 1.2 0.7 0.2 17.2 2.4

98.2 3.5 7.1 2.8 91.1 3.6 7.4 9 21.9 3.9 3.7 15.3 2.8 1.8 3.2 4.9 1.8 9.3 7.3 13.8 1.9 10.2 2.5 3.9 1 0.7 0.2 17.3 2.5

98.9 3.3 7.1 2.3 91.8 3.4 7.5 8.6 22 3.5 3.7 15.4 2.8 1.8 2.9 4.9 1.5 9.4 7.4 13.8 1.7 10.3 2.1 3.9 0.8 0.7 0.1 17.4 2.5

5983.6 330.6 0.5 137.4 1.5 15.1 888 945 -57

6020.9 331.2 0.6 138.6 2.4 15 1081 1118 -38

6058.3 331.9 0.7 139.7 3.3 14.6 1453 1422 31

6107.2 332.9 0.8 140.7 3.4 14.2 1925 1877 48

6171.6 334 1 141.8 3.2 13.8 2448 2384 63

6236.3 335.4 1.3 142.9 3.1 13.3 2912 2850 61

6297.4 336.9 1.5 144 3.1 12.9 3216 3128 88

6369.5 338.6 1.7 144.7 2.9 12.4 3509 3410 99

6442.4 340.5 1.9 145.4 2.5 11.8 3776 3661 115

6514.1 342.5 2.1 145.8 2 11.5 3860 3728 132

6570.9 344.6 2.3 146.2 1.6 11.1 3896 3752 144

6637.6 346.9 2.5 146.7 1.4 10.7 4027 3873 154

6702.9 349.3 2.6 147.3 1.3 10.4 4103 3941 162

6763.4 351.7 2.7 147.9 1.4 10.2 4090 3924 167

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

89


Oca l a

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

6.9 7.4 2.7 4.2

7.7 11 3 4.7

8.6 11.9 3.3 5.3

9.6 11.7 3.7 5.9

10 3.6 3.7 6.2

10.2 2.6 3.7 6.5

10 -2.1 3.5 6.5

10.4 4.1 3.5 7

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

6.6 5.3

7.1 8.1

7.7 8.6

8.4 8.7

8.5 0.9

8.4 -0.8

8.2 -2.3

8.4 2.5

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

24.7 23.4

26.4 24.4

28.4 25.5

30.5 26.7

30.8 26.2

31.2 25.7

30.4 25

31.5 25.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

30.1 6

30.9 2.6

32.2 4

34.5 7.3

34.8 0.9

36.1 3.8

37 2.4

38.1 2.9

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

89.9 3.4

95.9 6.6

101.5 5.9

106.1 4.5

106.8 0.6

101.9 -4.6

92.8 -9

90.1 -2.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

9.2 -1

9.6 4

9.9 3.6

9.9 -0.7

9.6 -3

8.3 -13.9

6.6 -20.2

6.4 -3.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

80.7 3.9

86.3 6.9

91.6 6.2

96.2 5.1

97.2 1

93.6 -3.6

86.2 -8

83.7 -2.9

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

8.5 15.3

9.9 16.7

10.7 8.8

12.6 17

11.6 -7.6

9.6 -16.9

7.4 -23.5

6.5 -12.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

20.9 2

21.7 3.6

22.9 5.6

23.4 1.9

23.8 1.8

22.7 -4.5

20.5 -9.8

20 -2.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.3 15.1 2.5

3.6 15.6 2.5

3.9 16.3 2.7

4.2 16.4 2.7

4.4 16.4 2.9

4.1 15.7 2.9

3.5 14.5 2.5

3.4 14.1 2.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.2 -5.1

2.2 1.2

2.2 -2.3

2.1 -1.9

2 -7.2

1.9 -3

1.7 -11.5

1.6 -5

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

4.3 9.2

4.9 12.5

5.4 11.1

5.8 6

6 3.6

5.9 -0.6

5.2 -11.6

4.5 -14.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.6 4.8

8.2 7.5

8.9 9.5

9.3 4.1

8.5 -8.2

8.1 -4.6

7.7 -5.1

7.6 -1.2

10.5 8.5

11.1 6

12 7.7

12.7 5.8

13.3 4.8

13.5 1.5

12.7 -6.2

12.7 0.5

7.7 0.9

8.7 13.1

9.2 6.3

9.7 4.8

10.6 9.5

10.4 -2

9.9 -5

9.6 -2.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

3.6 -1.6

3.8 7.7

4 5.2

4.1 1.9

4.3 4.6

3.9 -8.6

3.6 -7.8

3.7 2.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.7 -2.3

0.7 0

0.7 0.1

0.7 0

0.7 0

0.7 2.3

0.7 1

0.8 9.2

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

14.7 0.4

15.1 2.4

15.4 2.3

16 3.5

16.4 2.9

16.8 2.1

16.8 0

16.7 -0.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

4937.1

5367.2

5881.4

6243.7

6270.6

6136.2

5781

5944.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

280.7 3.1

291.4 3.8

303.3 4.1

314.9 3.8

323.2 2.7

327.2 1.2

328.7 0.5

330.4 0.5

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

114.3 2.3

118.9 4

126.8 6.7

132.8 4.8

136.5 2.7

138.1 1.1

136 -1.5

136.8 0.6

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

90

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

5.4

4.6

3.7

3.4

4.5

7.8

12.9

15.1

6718 5982 736

5083 4994 88

7166 6606 559

7214 6862 352

3121 2808 313

1202 1186 16

411 398 13

825 844 -19

Continued


Oca l a

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

11 5.9 3.6 7.4

11.7 6.1 3.8 7.9

12.3 5.5 4.1 8.3

13.2 6.9 4.3 8.9

14.1 6.9 4.6 9.6

15.1 6.9 4.8 10.3

16.1 6.8 5.1 11

17.2 6.5 5.4 11.8

18.3 6.7 5.6 12.7

19.5 6.6 5.9 13.6

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

8.8 4.3

9.2 4.2

9.5 3.5

9.9 4.9

10.4 4.8

10.9 4.8

11.4 4.7

11.9 4.4

12.5 4.7

13.1 4.7

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

33.1 26.3

34.5 27

35.5 27.2

36.9 27.8

38.4 28.4

40 29

41.6 29.6

43.2 30.1

45 30.7

46.9 31.4

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

39.2 2.8

40.2 2.5

41.4 3

42.7 3.2

44.1 3.3

45.6 3.4

47.1 3.4

48.7 3.4

50.4 3.4

52 3.3

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

91.4 1.5

94.4 3.3

97.8 3.6

100.5 2.7

102.9 2.4

105.2 2.3

107.3 2

109.3 1.8

111.2 1.8

113.2 1.8

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

6.6 3.5

6.9 4.7

7.1 3.1

7.2 1

7.1 -0.3

7.1 -0.8

7 -0.8

7 -0.6

6.9 -0.9

6.9 -0.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

84.8 1.3

87.6 3.2

90.7 3.6

93.3 2.9

95.7 2.6

98.1 2.5

100.3 2.2

102.3 2

104.3 2

106.3 2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

6.3 -2.5

6.7 6.6

7.3 8.9

7.8 5.6

8 3.1

8.3 3.6

8.6 3.4

8.8 3.1

9 1.8

9.2 1.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

20.2 1

21 3.7

21.8 3.9

22.3 2.6

22.8 2

23.1 1.3

23.3 1

23.6 1.2

23.9 1.3

24.2 1.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.4 14.3 2.5

3.5 14.8 2.6

3.7 15.2 2.8

3.8 15.6 2.9

3.9 15.8 3

3.9 15.9 3.1

4 15.9 3.2

4 16.1 3.3

4.1 16.3 3.3

4.1 16.5 3.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.7 3.5

1.7 2.7

1.8 3.1

1.8 2

1.8 1.6

1.8 1.8

1.9 1.9

1.9 1.4

1.9 1.4

2 1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

4.6 1.8

4.7 3.8

4.8 1.9

4.9 1.2

5 1.4

5 1.4

5.1 1.3

5.2 1

5.2 1.2

5.3 1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8.2 7.4

8.6 4.9

9.2 7

9.8 6.6

10.5 6.9

11.2 7.1

11.9 5.8

12.4 4.5

13 4.8

13.6 4.7

13.1 2.8

13.5 3.1

13.7 2.1

14.1 2.5

14.5 2.9

15 3.5

15.4 2.9

15.9 2.8

16.3 2.7

16.7 2.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

9.7 0.7

9.9 2.7

10.2 2.8

10.3 1.4

10.5 1

10.6 1

10.6 0.8

10.7 0.7

10.8 1

10.9 0.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

3.8 1.5

3.8 1.2

3.8 1.1

3.9 1.4

3.9 1.2

4 1

4 1

4.1 0.7

4.1 0.8

4.1 0.9

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.7 -5.2

0.7 -0.5

0.7 0.2

0.8 0.6

0.8 1.1

0.8 1.4

0.8 1.5

0.8 1.6

0.8 1.7

0.9 14.8

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

16.6 -0.3

16.9 1.5

17.3 2.4

17.6 2.2

18 2.1

18.3 1.8

18.6 1.8

18.9 1.6

19.2 1.5

19.5 1.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

6143.4

6405.8

6668.7

6951.6

7231.8

7524.3

7801.6

8079.2

8374

8673.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

333.6 0.9

339.6 1.8

348.1 2.5

357.7 2.7

367.3 2.7

377 2.7

387.1 2.7

397.1 2.6

406.9 2.5

416.3 2.3

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

141.2 3.2

145 2.6

147 1.4

149.2 1.5

152.4 2.1

155.5 2

158.6 2

161.8 2

165 2

167.9 1.8

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

14

12.1

10.6

9.6

9.2

8.8

8.3

7.9

7.4

7

2184 2133 51

3590 3482 109

4029 3872 157

4050 3877 173

4046 3861 185

4130 3935 195

4144 3941 202

4137 3924 212

4197 3973 224

4235 4007 227

Continued

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

91


Oca l a

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

20.7 6.3 6.2 14.5

22 6 6.6 15.4

23.3 5.8 6.9 16.4

24.6 5.7 7.2 17.4

26 5.7 7.6 18.4

27.5 5.8 8 19.5

29.1 5.9 8.4 20.7

30.7 5.6 8.9 21.9

32.4 5.5 9.3 23.1

34.2 5.5 9.8 24.4

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

13.7 4.4

14.2 4.2

14.8 3.9

15.4 3.8

15.9 3.8

16.5 3.9

17.2 3.9

17.8 3.7

18.5 3.6

19.1 3.5

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

48.7 32.1

50.6 32.7

52.4 33.3

54.2 33.8

56.1 34.3

58 34.9

60.1 35.5

62.2 36.1

64.3 36.6

66.4 37.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

53.8 3.3

55.5 3.3

57.3 3.3

59.2 3.2

61.2 3.3

63.3 3.4

65.5 3.5

67.7 3.4

70.1 3.5

72.5 3.5

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

115.1 1.7

117.5 2

119.6 1.8

121.5 1.6

123.6 1.7

125.8 1.8

127.9 1.7

130.1 1.7

132.5 1.8

134.7 1.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

6.8 -1.8

6.6 -2.1

6.5 -2.3

6.3 -2.1

6.2 -1.9

6.1 -1.7

6 -1.6

5.9 -1.6

5.8 -1.4

5.7 -1.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

108.4 1.9

110.9 2.3

113.2 2.1

115.2 1.8

117.4 1.9

119.7 2

121.9 1.9

124.2 1.9

126.6 1.9

129 1.9

9.4 2.4

9.6 2.6

9.9 2.6

10.1 2.2

10.3 2.3

10.6 2.9

10.9 2.4

11.1 1.9

11.3 1.9

11.5 2.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

24.5 1.4

25 2

25.5 1.9

25.9 1.6

26.3 1.6

26.7 1.5

27.1 1.5

27.5 1.5

27.9 1.4

28.2 1.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.2 16.6 3.4

4.3 16.9 3.5

4.4 17.1 3.6

4.5 17.4 3.8

4.5 17.6 3.9

4.6 17.8 3.9

4.6 18.1 4

4.7 18.4 4.1

4.8 18.6 4.2

4.8 18.8 4.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2 1.3

2 1.6

2 1.5

2.1 1.1

2.1 1.1

2.1 1.5

2.1 1.6

2.2 1.8

2.2 2

2.3 1.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

5.3 0.9

5.4 1.6

5.5 1.6

5.6 1.5

5.7 1.8

5.8 1.7

5.9 1.7

6 1.8

6.1 1.8

6.2 1.8

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

14.4 5.6

15.2 5.4

15.9 4.4

16.4 3.4

17.1 4.1

17.8 4.3

18.4 3.7

19.2 3.8

20 4.3

20.8 4.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

17.1 2.1

17.4 2

17.8 2

18.1 1.9

18.4 1.8

18.8 1.8

19.1 1.9

19.5 1.9

19.9 2

20.3 1.9

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

11 0.8

11.1 1.3

11.2 1.1

11.3 0.9

11.4 0.9

11.6 1.1

11.7 1.3

11.9 1.3

12 1.4

12.1 1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

4.2 1.6

4.3 1.9

4.3 1.6

4.4 1.6

4.5 1.7

4.5 1.3

4.6 1.1

4.6 1.1

4.7 1.1

4.7 1.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.8 -9.9

0.8 1.3

0.9 1.4

0.9 1.4

0.9 1.4

0.9 1.4

0.9 1.4

0.9 1.4

0.9 1.4

1 9

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

19.7 1.3

20 1.3

20.2 1.3

20.5 1.1

20.7 1.2

20.9 1.1

21.2 1.1

21.4 1.1

21.6 1.1

21.8 1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

8975.8

9310.8

9644

9973.9

10327.6

10680.6

11024.8

11374.4

11738.5

12127.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

425.6 2.2

434.9 2.2

444.4 2.2

454 2.2

463.8 2.2

473.9 2.2

484.1 2.2

494.4 2.1

504.9 2.1

515.5 2.1

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

170.7 1.7

173.6 1.7

176.6 1.7

179.7 1.8

183.1 1.9

186.8 2

190.6 2.1

194.6 2.1

198.6 2.1

202.7 2.1

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

92

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

6.8

6.6

6.5

6.6

6.7

6.7

6.7

6.8

6.8

6.9

4166 3941 225

4204 3980 225

4218 3999 219

4239 4027 212

4303 4095 209

4338 4132 206

4260 4058 201

4145 3948 197

4072 3882 190

4091 3906 185

Continued


Oca l a

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

36.1 5.5 10.3 25.7

38.1 5.6 10.9 27.2

40.2 5.4 11.5 28.7

42.3 5.3 12.1 30.2

44.5 5.2 12.6 31.9

46.9 5.3 13.2 33.6

49.2 5.1 13.9 35.4

51.7 5.1 14.5 37.2

54.3 5 15.2 39.1

57 5 15.9 41.1

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

19.8 3.5

20.5 3.6

21.2 3.4

21.9 3.3

22.6 3.3

23.4 3.3

24.1 3.1

24.8 3

25.6 2.9

26.3 2.9

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

68.5 37.6

70.8 38.1

73.1 38.6

75.4 39.1

77.7 39.5

80.1 40

82.5 40.4

84.9 40.7

87.3 41.1

89.8 41.4

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

75 3.5

77.7 3.5

80.3 3.4

83 3.3

85.8 3.3

88.6 3.3

91.5 3.3

94.5 3.3

97.6 3.3

100.9 3.4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

137.2 1.9

140.1 2.1

142.6 1.8

144.7 1.5

146.7 1.4

148.8 1.5

151 1.5

153 1.3

155 1.3

157 1.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

5.7 -1

5.6 -1.1

5.6 -1.3

5.5 -1.2

5.4 -1.3

5.3 -1.2

5.3 -1.2

5.2 -1.1

5.2 -0.7

5.2 -0.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

131.6 2

134.5 2.2

137 1.9

139.2 1.6

141.2 1.5

143.5 1.6

145.7 1.6

147.8 1.4

149.8 1.4

151.8 1.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

11.8 2.8

12.2 2.9

12.5 2.7

12.8 1.9

13 1.7

13.2 1.8

13.5 1.9

13.7 1.7

13.9 1.7

14.1 1.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

28.6 1.2

28.9 1.1

29.2 1.2

29.5 1

29.8 0.9

30.1 1

30.4 1

30.7 1

31 1

31.3 0.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.8 19.1 4.3

4.8 19.3 4.3

4.8 19.6 4.3

4.8 19.9 4.4

4.8 20.1 4.4

4.8 20.4 4.4

4.8 20.6 4.4

4.7 20.9 4.4

4.7 21.2 4.4

4.7 21.5 4.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.3 2.3

2.4 2.9

2.4 2.3

2.5 1.5

2.5 1.3

2.5 1.5

2.6 1.8

2.6 1.8

2.7 1.6

2.7 1.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.3 2

6.4 2

6.5 1.8

6.7 1.7

6.8 1.7

6.9 1.8

7 1.6

7.1 1.5

7.2 1.5

7.3 0.9

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

21.7 4.6

22.9 5.2

23.7 3.8

24.5 3.1

25.2 2.9

26 3.2

26.8 3.1

27.5 2.5

28.2 2.5

29 2.9

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

20.7 2

21.1 2.2

21.5 1.9

21.9 1.6

22.2 1.4

22.5 1.5

22.8 1.5

23.2 1.6

23.6 1.5

23.9 1.4

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

12.3 1.5

12.5 1.6

12.7 1.5

12.9 1.3

13 1.4

13.2 1.3

13.4 1.2

13.5 1

13.7 1.3

13.8 0.6

4.8 1

4.8 1

4.9 1

4.9 1

5 0.9

5 1

5.1 0.7

5.1 0.6

5.1 0.6

5.1 0.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.9 -7.7

1 1.4

1 1.4

1 1.4

1 1.4

1 1.4

1 1.4

1 1.4

1 1.3

1.1 7.6

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

22.1 1

22.3 1

22.5 0.9

22.7 0.8

22.8 0.8

23 0.8

23.2 0.7

23.3 0.6

23.5 0.5

23.6 0.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

12539.3

12967.8

13393.4

13816.8

14244.4

14701.1

15180

15655.3

16162.2

16704.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

526.6 2.1

537.8 2.1

549.2 2.1

560.8 2.1

572.6 2.1

584.7 2.1

597 2.1

609.4 2.1

622.1 2.1

635 2.1

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

206.8 2

211 2

215.2 2

219.5 2

223.8 2

228.2 1.9

232.5 1.9

237 1.9

241.5 1.9

246 1.8

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

6.9

7

7.1

7.1

7.2

7.2

7.3

7.3

7.4

7.4

4066 3885 180

3959 3781 178

3924 3752 173

3949 3781 168

3976 3812 163

3982 3826 156

3935 3786 149

3876 3733 143

3850 3712 139

3831 3697 134

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

93


Or l a n d o – Ki s s immee

P r o fi l e s The Orlando–Kissimmee MSA is comprised of Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole counties. Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World and numerous other Disney enterprises, Universal Studios, and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic, the Orlando Predators arena football team, and Atlanta Braves spring training at Disney’s Wide World of Sports. The University of Central Florida, the nation’s third-largest university, and many other places of higher education also reside in the MSA. QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 2,082,421 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Lake County population estimate of 312,119 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Orange County population estimate of 1,086,480 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Osceola County population estimate of 270,618 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Seminole County population estimate of 413,204 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force for the MSA of 1,115,139 in April 2010 (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• An unemployment rate of 11.4% as of April 2010, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 126,587 unemployed people in the Orlando MSA. (Florida Research and Economic Database) TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Walt Disney Co. – 62,200 employees

• Orange County Public Schools – 23,228 employees • Florida State Government – 19,500 employees • Florida Hospital (Adventist Health System) – 16,002 employees

• Publix Super Markets Inc. – 15,606 employees • Universal Orlando – 13,000 employees 94

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

• Federal Government – 12,700 employees

• University of Central Florida – 10,152 employees • Orlando Regional Healthcare System – 10,000 employees • Seminole County Public Schools – 9,984 employees

Sources: Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission, Agency for Workforce Innovation, and Orlando Business Journal

Out l o o k Summarie s The Orlando–Kissimmee area is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to grow at a rate of 5.2 percent annually. The per capita income level is expected to be 29.5. Average annual wage growth will be 2.8 percent, and average annual wage will be at a level of 45.6. The Orlando MSA will see population growth of 1.4 percent, one of the highest in the state. Gross Metro Product is expected to be one of the highest in the state, averaging 86,501.75 (Mill). Employment growth is forecasted to average 1.4 percent annually, one of the highest in the state. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 10.3 percent. In the Orlando area, the fastest growing sectors are expected to be Manufacturing and Education and Health Services, both with an average annual growth rate of 3.1 percent. This will be followed by Trade, Transportation and Utilities, with an average annual growth rate of 1.8 percent. The only sector that will experience negative growth is the Federal Government sector, with an average annual rate of growth of -0.9 percent.


Or l a n d o – Ki s s immee

M etr o Ne w s Summarie s UCF gets $7.6M for health IT center

• The University of Central Florida was awarded through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act $7.6 million to establish a health information technology regional extension center. • Practitioners will be able to use the center as a resource for technical assistance, guidance, and information on best practices. • The Recovery Act’s health IT program has already awarded more than $375 million to regional extension centers.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, April 6, 2010

Orange County’s hotel-tax revenue improved in March

• Orange County reported a 14% increase in hotel tax collection in March over the prior year. This is the first double-digit increase since October 2007.

• The county collected $15.9 million in March from the tourist-development tax, which comes from short-term rentals such as hotels and motels. • Average occupancy rates were also up over the same period, with an increase of more than 9%, the largest gain in nearly four years. Source: Orlando Sentinel, May 3, 2010

Disney to build 2,000-room Art of Animation Resort

• Walt Disney World will begin construction on a new 2,000-room resort this summer, expected to open in 2012.

• Some interpret this announcement as a sign that Disney is adapting with the changing economy. The company appears to be optimistic about the recovery, but recognizes that travelers will continue their “frugal spending habits.” • The company expects the project to create approximately 800 new construction jobs. Source: Orlando Sentinel, May 12, 2010

Lockheed Martin awarded $40M contract

• Lockheed Martin Corporation was awarded a $40 million contract by the Royal Saudi Air Force.

• The contract is for Lockheed’s Sniper Advanced Targeting Pods, which are produced at Lockheed Martin Missiles & Fire Control, located in Orlando. • This is the second purchase by the Royal Saudi Air Force for the Sniper ATPs; the first was in March 2009.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, May 20, 2010

Dr. Phillips Charities awards $4.6M

• Dr. Phillips Charities awarded more than $4.6 million to local nonprofits.

• Nonprofits that received awards include Junior Achievement of Central Florida, which received a $75,000 grant, Central Florida YMCA, which received $4.5 million, Osceola County Council on Aging Inc., which received a $69,890 pledge, Edgewood Ranch Endowment Inc., which received a $12,500 pledge, and the Coalition for Property Rights Inc. which received a $10,000 grant. Source: Orlando Business Journal, June 3, 2010

• The Art of Animation Resort will be priced as a “value” hotel, with rates priced on the lower end of Disney’s range of resorts.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

95


Or l a n d o – Ki s s immee Orlando - Kissimee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate (percent)

14.0% 12.0%

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Orlando Payroll Employment 1800.0

(Thousands)

1600.0

1200.0 1000.0 800.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate

600.0

250000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

200000.0 150000.0 100000.0 50000.0 0.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Gross Metro Product Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Orlando Payroll Employment

Orlando Real Personal Income

Orlando Real Gross Metro Product

96

0.8

1400.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0%

(percent change year ago)

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Personal Income


Or l a n d o – Ki s s immee

Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

75 5.6 43.8 31.2 60.6 4 35.5 28.7 43.9 3.4

75.9 5.8 44.2 31.7 61.1 4.5 35.9 28.9 44.3 3.3

76.9 6.5 44.7 32.2 61.6 5.1 36.2 29 44.6 3.4

77.7 4.8 45.1 32.5 62 3.1 36.5 29.1 44.9 3

78.6 4.8 45.7 32.9 62.5 3.1 36.8 29.3 45.1 2.8

79.7 4.9 46.3 33.4 63 3.1 37.2 29.4 45.4 2.5

80.9 5.2 47 33.9 63.7 3.4 37.6 29.6 45.7 2.4

82.1 5.7 47.6 34.5 64.4 3.9 38.1 29.9 46 2.4

83.3 6 48.3 35 65 4.1 38.5 30 46.3 2.5

84.5 6.1 49.1 35.4 65.6 4.1 38.9 30.2 46.6 2.7

85.6 5.9 49.8 35.8 66.2 3.9 39.2 30.3 47 2.9

86.9 5.9 50.6 36.3 66.9 3.9 39.6 30.4 47.4 3

88.2 5.9 51.3 36.9 67.5 3.9 39.9 30.6 47.7 3.2

89.4 5.9 52 37.4 68.2 3.9 40.3 30.7 48.1 3.2

1008.3 1.5 39.7 4.4 968.6 1.3 46.2 -0.4 185.7 1.3 40.8 114 30.8 25.3 5.1 62 1 171.8 3.6 124.4 2.8 189 -0.2 48.8 1.3 11.7 -5.7 103.7 -0.1

1015.3 2 40.3 4.6 975.1 1.9 46.8 2.1 187.5 2.1 41.3 115.1 31.3 25.5 4.4 62.6 2.9 173.5 3.7 125.6 3.2 189.1 0 48.9 1.3 11.6 -2.1 104 0.4

1023.6 2.6 40.8 5.3 982.8 2.5 47.6 4.8 189.4 3 41.8 116 31.8 25.7 3.6 63.1 3.5 174.7 3.3 126.7 3.7 190.6 0.8 49 0.9 11.6 -1.4 104.5 0.9

1032 3 41.4 5.4 990.7 2.9 48.7 6.9 191.2 3.7 42.2 116.8 32.2 25.7 2.4 63.5 3.4 175.4 3 128.1 4 192.4 1.7 49 0.7 11.6 -0.8 105 1.5

1040.6 3.2 41.8 5.3 998.8 3.1 49.8 7.8 193.1 4 42.6 117.6 32.6 25.8 1.9 63.9 3.1 176.3 2.6 129.4 4 194.1 2.7 49.2 0.9 11.6 -0.5 105.7 1.9

1048.9 3.3 42.2 4.9 1006.6 3.2 51 9 194.9 4 43.1 118.3 33 25.9 1.7 64.2 2.6 177.2 2.1 130.5 3.9 195.6 3.4 49.4 1 11.6 -0.3 106.3 2.2

1056.7 3.2 42.6 4.3 1014.1 3.2 52.2 9.7 196.7 3.9 43.5 118.9 33.3 26.1 1.7 64.4 2.1 178.3 2.1 131.2 3.6 196.9 3.4 49.5 1 11.6 -0.2 107 2.4

1064.3 3.1 42.9 3.8 1021.4 3.1 53.6 10 198.4 3.7 43.8 119.9 33.6 26.3 2.2 64.6 1.9 179.4 2.3 132.3 3.3 197.9 2.9 49.6 1.2 11.6 -0.1 107.7 2.5

1071.3 2.9 43.2 3.3 1028.1 2.9 54.8 10 199.9 3.5 44.2 120.7 33.9 26.4 2.3 64.9 1.7 180.6 2.4 133.2 3 198.6 2.3 49.8 1.2 11.6 0.1 108.3 2.5

1077.7 2.7 43.4 2.7 1034.3 2.7 55.9 9.7 201 3.1 44.4 121.4 34.1 26.5 2.2 65.2 1.5 181.8 2.6 134.1 2.7 199.4 1.9 50 1.3 11.6 0.2 108.9 2.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

993.8 -0.6 38 1.3 955.7 -0.7 46.4 -11.6 183.3 -0.4 39.4 112.7 29.5 24.1 -2.5 61.3 -1.4 165.8 -1.2 121.1 2.4 189.4 0.4 48.1 0.1 12.4 3.2 103.8 -0.5

995 0 38.5 4.2 956.5 -0.2 45.8 -7 183.6 0.9 39.4 112.8 29.6 24.4 -0.6 60.8 -2.4 167.4 0.3 121.7 3.3 189.1 -0.8 48.3 0.6 11.9 -0.9 103.6 -1.3

998 0.6 38.8 4.7 959.3 0.4 45.4 -5.1 183.9 1.1 39.6 113.1 29.9 24.8 2.5 61 -1.8 169.1 1.7 122.1 2.4 189.1 0.1 48.6 1.4 11.8 -2.4 103.5 -1.4

1002.3 0.7 39.2 4.2 963.1 0.5 45.5 -4.4 184.3 0.6 40.1 113.4 30.3 25.1 4.7 61.4 -0.3 170.4 2.7 123.2 2.3 189.2 0 48.7 1.4 11.7 -13.2 103.5 -0.9

82578.3 83042.4 83488.4 84071.6 84882.7 85716.8 86584.1 87485.7 88378.3 89233.3 89895.4 90653.9 2110.4 2115.5 2121.2 2127.3 2133.6 2140.7 2148.3 2156.1 2165.1 2174.6 2185 2196.4 1.1 1 1 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 1129.3 1130.6 1132.8 1134.5 1137.3 1140.8 1144 1148.1 1152.3 1156.9 1162.1 1167.2 1.2 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.9 1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.7 12.3 12.2 11.8 11.4 11 10.5 10 9.6 9.1 8.8 8.5 8.1 4464 5600 8890 11526 13986 15617 17735 19691 21329 22201 22726 23623 5979 6570 7828 9908 11867 13528 14985 16555 17753 18141 18323 18990 -1515 -970 1062 1618 2119 2089 2750 3135 3577 4059 4403 4634

91430 92145.8 2208.4 2221 2 2.1 1172.7 1178.5 1.8 1.9 7.9 7.7 24199 24267 19384 19343 4815 4923

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

97


Or l a n d o – Ki s s immee

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

53.1 5.9 33.2 19.9

58.1 9.4 36.3 21.7

64 10.2 40.2 23.8

69.9 9.3 43.5 26.5

72.4 3.5 45.2 27.2

73.6 1.7 45.2 28.4

71.6 -2.8 43.1 28.5

74.3 3.8 43.6 30.7

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

50.4 3.8

53.7 6.6

57.5 7

61.1 6.4

61.6 0.8

60.6 -1.6

58.8 -3

60.1 2.2

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

29.3 27.8

31 28.6

32.9 29.5

34.9 30.5

35.5 30.2

35.7 29.4

34.3 28.2

35.3 28.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

35.7 3.9

37.4 4.8

39.1 4.6

40.6 3.6

41.1 1.4

41.8 1.7

42.5 1.6

43.7 2.8

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

924.7 2

967.5 4.6

1022.8 5.7

1067.5 4.4

1094.7 2.6

1076.3 -1.7

1009.2 -6.2

994.1 -1.5

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

43.2 -4.9

44.1 2.2

45.3 2.7

44.5 -1.9

44.1 -0.8

42.3 -4.1

38.1 -10

37.8 -0.7

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

881.6 2.4

923.4 4.7

977.5 5.9

1023 4.7

1050.6 2.7

1034 -1.6

971.1 -6.1

956.3 -1.5

66 7.4

74.2 12.5

84.4 13.7

91.2 8

85.4 -6.4

72.7 -14.8

54.9 -24.5

46.9 -14.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

173.4 1

181.7 4.8

192.8 6.1

198.8 3.1

204 2.6

200.8 -1.6

186 -7.4

183 -1.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

40 107.4 25.9

42 113.5 26.2

44.7 120.1 28

46.2 122.3 30.3

47.2 123.7 33

45.8 121.9 33.1

40.6 115.2 30.2

39.4 112.8 29.6

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

23.1 2.5

23.8 3

24.7 3.9

25.8 4.6

26.8 3.7

26.3 -1.8

25 -4.9

24.2 -3.5

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

57.4 4.8

59.5 3.7

63.7 7.1

67 5.2

67.8 1.1

66.5 -1.9

63.1 -5.2

61.4 -2.6

148.8 -0.9

153.4 3

165.7 8

178.3 7.6

186.9 4.8

182.6 -2.3

169 -7.4

166.3 -1.6

93.6 4.7

97.3 4

102.2 5

107.5 5.2

112.7 4.8

116.4 3.3

117.6 1

120.6 2.6

169.9 3

179.4 5.6

183.6 2.4

186.9 1.8

193.6 3.6

199.6 3.1

190.3 -4.6

189.2 -0.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

45.7 0.7

47.5 4

49.9 4.9

53.4 7.1

55.8 4.5

51.4 -7.9

48.3 -6.1

48.1 -0.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

11.1 7

11.2 1.2

11.8 5.2

11.4 -3.5

11.5 0.4

11.8 2.8

12.1 2.6

12.4 3.1

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

92.6 2.6

95.4 3

98.7 3.5

102.7 4.1

106.2 3.4

105.9 -0.3

104.8 -1

104.2 -0.6

66200.2

70529.1

77201.4

81834.6

83646.6

83747.6

80767.3

82515.5

1812.3 2.8

1876.3 3.5

1946.4 3.7

2002.7 2.9

2037.6 1.7

2063.4 1.3

2085.3 1.1

2107.7 1.1

934 1.7

963.3 3.1

1007.5 4.6

1050.4 4.3

1093.4 4.1

1121.1 2.5

1119.1 -0.2

1127.7 0.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

98

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

5.1

4.4

3.5

3.1

3.8

5.9

10.5

12.3

27587 22304 5283

32387 26186 6201

33902 26861 7040

30379 24302 6077

18042 12556 5486

10247 5554 4693

4694 3827 867

5697 5984 -287

Continued


Or l a n d o – Ki s s immee

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

78.2 5.2 45.4 32.8

82.7 5.7 48 34.7

87.5 5.9 50.9 36.6

93.4 6.7 53.8 39.6

99.3 6.4 56.7 42.6

105.6 6.3 59.8 45.8

112 6.1 62.9 49.1

118.5 5.8 66.1 52.4

125.6 6 69.5 56.2

133.1 5.9 72.8 60.3

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

62.3 3.6

64.7 3.9

67.2 3.9

70.3 4.6

73.3 4.3

76.5 4.2

79.5 4

82.5 3.7

85.8 4

89.2 4

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

36.7 29.2

38.3 29.9

39.7 30.5

41.4 31.2

43 31.8

44.7 32.3

46.2 32.8

47.8 33.3

49.5 33.8

51.3 34.4

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

45 2.9

46.1 2.5

47.5 3.1

49.1 3.4

50.8 3.4

52.6 3.5

54.4 3.4

56.3 3.4

58.2 3.4

60 3.2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1006 1.2

1036.3 3

1067.5 3

1091.7 2.3

1112.7 1.9

1134.1 1.9

1153.1 1.7

1171.4 1.6

1190.5 1.6

1208.7 1.5

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

39.5 4.5

41.6 5.2

43 3.5

43.6 1.3

43.5 -0.1

43.3 -0.6

43 -0.6

42.8 -0.4

42.6 -0.6

42.3 -0.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

966.5 1.1

994.7 2.9

1024.5 3

1048.1 2.3

1069.2 2

1090.8 2

1110.1 1.8

1128.5 1.7

1147.9 1.7

1166.4 1.6

46 -2

49.3 7.2

54.1 9.8

57.6 6.5

60.2 4.5

63 4.7

65.7 4.2

68.2 3.9

70 2.6

71.9 2.7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

185.3 1.3

192.2 3.7

199 3.6

204 2.5

208.6 2.2

211.7 1.5

214.4 1.2

217.3 1.4

220.2 1.3

222.8 1.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

40.5 113.9 30.6

42.4 117.2 32.4

44 120.2 33.7

45.3 122.7 34.8

46.6 124.3 35.9

47.6 124.9 37.1

48.6 125.2 38.2

49.7 126 39.1

50.8 127.2 39.6

52 128.4 40

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

25.2 4.2

25.8 2.4

26.3 2.1

26.7 1.6

27.3 2.1

28 2.4

28.7 2.7

29.4 2.2

30 2

30.4 1.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

61.7 0.4

63.7 3.1

64.8 1.8

65.6 1.2

66.4 1.4

67.4 1.4

68.2 1.2

68.8 0.9

69.5 1.1

70.1 0.8

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

171.2 2.9

175.9 2.7

180 2.3

184.1 2.3

187.9 2

192.6 2.5

196.5 2.1

200 1.8

204.5 2.2

208.9 2.2

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

123.8 2.7

128.7 3.9

132.7 3.1

136.7 3

140.7 2.9

145.6 3.5

149.6 2.8

153.6 2.6

157.6 2.6

161.8 2.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

189.1 0

193.2 2.1

198.2 2.6

200.6 1.2

202 0.7

203.6 0.8

205.1 0.8

206.8 0.8

209 1.1

210.3 0.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

48.7 1.3

49.1 0.9

49.7 1.2

50.7 2

51.7 2

52.6 1.7

53.4 1.6

54.2 1.4

54.9 1.4

55.6 1.3

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

11.7 -6.1

11.6 -0.7

11.6 0

11.6 0.4

11.7 0.8

11.9 1.2

12 1.3

12.2 1.3

12.3 1.3

13.4 8.6

103.7 -0.5

105.4 1.6

108 2.5

110.4 2.2

112.6 2.1

114.5 1.7

116.4 1.7

118.2 1.5

119.8 1.4

121.2 1.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

84539.9

87920.3

91031.3

94464.2

97944.3

101648

105200

108889

112820

116750

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2130.7 1.1

2161 1.4

2202.7 1.9

2253.7 2.3

2308.3 2.4

2364.4 2.4

2421.6 2.4

2479.8 2.4

2538.1 2.4

2596.2 2.3

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

1136.3 0.8

1150.3 1.2

1170.1 1.7

1191.8 1.9

1218.4 2.2

1246.2 2.3

1273.6 2.2

1301.4 2.2

1329.9 2.2

1357.6 2.1

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

11.2

9.4

8.1

7.2

6.7

6.2

5.8

5.4

5

4.7

12505 10783 1722

20239 16859 3380

23704 19010 4694

24302 19204 5098

25219 19556 5663

26487 20134 6352

27089 20326 6763

27490 20499 6990

28051 20685 7365

28434 20820 7614

Continued

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

99


Or l a n d o – Ki s s immee

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

140.7 5.7 76.3 64.4

148.7 5.7 80.3 68.5

156.7 5.4 84.2 72.5

164.9 5.2 88.3 76.6

173.8 5.4 92.7 81

183.2 5.4 97.5 85.7

193.2 5.5 102.5 90.8

203.6 5.3 107.7 95.9

214.4 5.3 113.2 101.2

225.6 5.2 119 106.7

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

92.7 3.9

96.3 3.9

99.6 3.5

102.9 3.3

106.5 3.4

110.2 3.5

114.2 3.6

118.1 3.4

122.1 3.4

126.1 3.3

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

53 34.9

54.8 35.5

56.5 35.9

58.1 36.3

59.9 36.7

61.8 37.2

63.8 37.7

65.8 38.2

67.8 38.6

69.9 39.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

62 3.3

64.1 3.3

66.2 3.3

68.3 3.3

70.6 3.3

73.1 3.5

75.6 3.5

78.2 3.5

81 3.5

83.8 3.5

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1226.7 1.5

1248.7 1.8

1269.6 1.7

1288.6 1.5

1309.4 1.6

1330.5 1.6

1351.4 1.6

1372.6 1.6

1394.7 1.6

1416.3 1.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

41.7 -1.5

41 -1.7

40.2 -1.9

39.5 -1.7

39 -1.3

38.6 -1.1

38.2 -1

37.8 -1.1

37.4 -0.9

37.2 -0.7

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1185 1.6

1207.8 1.9

1229.4 1.8

1249.1 1.6

1270.3 1.7

1291.9 1.7

1313.3 1.7

1334.9 1.6

1357.3 1.7

1379.2 1.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

74.2 3.2

76.8 3.4

79.3 3.4

81.7 3

84.2 3.1

87 3.3

89.6 3

91.9 2.6

94.2 2.5

96.8 2.7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

226 1.5

231 2.2

235.6 2

239.9 1.8

244.1 1.8

248 1.6

252 1.6

256 1.6

259.8 1.5

263 1.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

53.5 129.4 41

55.2 131 42.3

56.9 132.6 43.6

58.3 134.3 44.8

59.7 135.9 46

61 137.4 47.1

62.3 139.1 47.9

63.6 141 48.7

64.9 142.5 49.6

66.2 143.8 50

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

30.9 1.8

31.6 2.1

32.2 2

32.8 1.7

33.4 1.8

34.1 2.2

34.9 2.3

35.7 2.5

36.7 2.7

37.6 2.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

70.7 0.9

71.7 1.4

72.8 1.4

73.8 1.4

75.1 1.7

76.4 1.7

77.6 1.7

79 1.7

80.4 1.7

81.8 1.8

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

214.1 2.5

219.3 2.4

223.7 2

227.5 1.7

231.8 1.9

236.1 1.9

240 1.7

244.1 1.7

248.5 1.8

252.9 1.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

164.8 1.9

167.8 1.8

170.8 1.8

173.7 1.7

176.8 1.7

179.8 1.8

183.1 1.8

186.5 1.8

190 1.9

193.3 1.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

212 0.8

214.5 1.2

216.8 1.1

218.9 0.9

221.1 1

223.7 1.2

226.7 1.3

229.7 1.3

233 1.4

235.5 1.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

56.7 1.9

57.9 2.2

59.1 2.1

60.3 2

61.7 2.2

62.8 1.8

63.8 1.6

64.8 1.6

65.8 1.6

66.9 1.7

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

12.9 -4.1

13.1 1.6

13.2 1.3

13.4 1.3

13.6 1.3

13.8 1.3

14 1.3

14.1 1.3

14.3 1.3

15.5 8.1

122.7 1.2

124.2 1.2

125.7 1.2

127.1 1.1

128.7 1.2

130.2 1.2

131.7 1.1

133.1 1.1

134.5 1.1

135.9 1

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

120724

125100

129535

134064

138889

143635

148310

153064

157959

163206

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2654.7 2.3

2714.2 2.2

2774.7 2.2

2836.3 2.2

2899 2.2

2962.8 2.2

3027.8 2.2

3094 2.2

3161.2 2.2

3229.4 2.2

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

1384.8 2

1411.8 2

1439.6 2

1468.2 2

1498.4 2.1

1531.9 2.2

1566.7 2.3

1602.5 2.3

1639.1 2.3

1676.3 2.3

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

100

4.6

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.5

4.5

28222 20642 7580

28672 20923 7749

29010 21206 7803

29257 21539 7718

29772 22061 7711

30028 22305 7723

29601 21895 7705

28958 21275 7683

28516 20926 7590

28645 21093 7552

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

Continued


Or l a n d o – Ki s s immee

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

237.5 5.3 125.2 112.4

250.1 5.3 131.7 118.4

263.2 5.2 138.4 124.8

276.5 5.1 145 131.5

290.4 5 151.9 138.5

305 5 159.1 145.9

320 4.9 166.7 153.3

335.6 4.9 174.5 161.1

351.6 4.8 182.6 169.1

368.4 4.8 191 177.4

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

130.3 3.3

134.7 3.3

139 3.2

143.3 3.1

147.6 3

152.1 3.1

156.6 2.9

161 2.8

165.4 2.7

169.9 2.7

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

72 39.5

74.2 40

76.5 40.4

78.7 40.8

81 41.2

83.4 41.6

85.7 41.9

88.1 42.3

90.5 42.6

92.9 42.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

86.7 3.5

89.7 3.4

92.8 3.4

95.9 3.4

99.2 3.4

102.5 3.4

106 3.4

109.6 3.4

113.2 3.3

117.1 3.4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1439.4 1.6

1464.5 1.7

1487.8 1.6

1508.3 1.4

1528 1.3

1548.8 1.4

1569.2 1.3

1588.8 1.2

1609.5 1.3

1627.9 1.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

37 -0.5

36.7 -0.6

36.5 -0.8

36.2 -0.7

35.9 -0.8

35.7 -0.7

35.4 -0.6

35.2 -0.5

35.2 -0.2

35.2 0.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1402.4 1.7

1427.8 1.8

1451.3 1.7

1472.1 1.4

1492.1 1.4

1513.1 1.4

1533.8 1.4

1553.6 1.3

1574.4 1.3

1592.7 1.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

100.1 3.4

103.6 3.5

107.2 3.4

110 2.6

112.5 2.4

115.3 2.5

118.4 2.6

121.3 2.5

124.3 2.5

126.9 2.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

266.2 1.2

269.1 1.1

272 1.1

274.5 0.9

276.7 0.8

279.1 0.9

281.4 0.8

283.7 0.8

286.1 0.9

288.3 0.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

67.1 145.6 50.5

67.8 147.4 50.9

68.3 149.3 51.3

68.7 151 51.6

69.1 152.7 51.9

69.5 154.4 52.1

69.8 156.2 52.2

70.1 158.1 52.3

70.5 160.1 52.3

71.1 161.7 52.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

38.7 3

40.1 3.5

41.2 2.9

42.1 2.2

43 2

43.9 2.2

45 2.5

46.2 2.5

47.3 2.4

48.1 1.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

83.4 2

85 2

86.6 1.8

88.1 1.7

89.5 1.6

91.1 1.8

92.5 1.6

93.9 1.5

95.3 1.5

96.3 1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

257.8 2

263.1 2

267.6 1.7

271.7 1.5

275.7 1.5

279.9 1.5

284.1 1.5

287.9 1.3

291.7 1.3

295.6 1.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

197.1 1.9

201.2 2.1

204.8 1.8

208 1.6

210.9 1.4

214 1.5

217 1.4

220.2 1.5

223.4 1.5

226.5 1.4

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

239.2 1.5

243.1 1.6

246.8 1.5

250.2 1.4

253.8 1.4

257.2 1.3

260.6 1.3

263.5 1.1

267.2 1.4

269.3 0.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

67.9 1.5

69 1.5

70 1.6

71.1 1.6

72.2 1.5

73.3 1.6

74.3 1.3

75.1 1.2

76 1.2

76.8 1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

14.8 -4.2

15 1.4

15.2 1.3

15.4 1.3

15.6 1.3

15.8 1.3

16 1.3

16.3 1.3

16.4 1.2

17.5 6.6

137.3 1

138.6 1

139.8 0.9

141 0.9

142.2 0.8

143.4 0.8

144.5 0.8

145.5 0.7

146.5 0.7

147.5 0.6

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

168714

174354

180139

186000

191958

198266

204894

211599

218777

226384

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

3298.5 2.1

3368.5 2.1

3439.5 2.1

3511.4 2.1

3584.3 2.1

3658.2 2.1

3733.2 2

3809.2 2

3886.5 2

3965.1 2

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

1714.2 2.3

1752.7 2.2

1791.9 2.2

1831.7 2.2

1872.2 2.2

1913.4 2.2

1955.3 2.2

1997.9 2.2

2041.5 2.2

2084.5 2.1

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.6

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.9

4.9

28528 21010 7519

28029 20455 7574

27864 20331 7533

28047 20541 7505

28197 20778 7419

28153 20918 7235

27841 20799 7042

27544 20608 6936

27475 20586 6889

27363 20541 6822

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

101


P a l m B ay – M e l b o ur n e – T itu s v i l l e

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Summarie s

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is comprised of Brevard County only. Typically known as “Florida’s Space Coast,” this area is home to the Kennedy Space Center. Located in the central part of Florida’s east coast, the region is home to Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, Patrick Air Force Base, and government contractors such as Harris Corporation. Like much of Florida, this area is growing fast; Port Canaveral is now a leading cruise-ship port.

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is expected to see moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 4.7 percent each year. Per capita income levels should average 31.6. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.8 percent, while average annual wage levels should be at 49.0. Population growth is expected to be an average of 0.6 percent, and the Gross Metro Product level is expected to be 15,068.30 (Mill). Employment growth is forecasted to average 0.9 percent each year. The metro will be seeing an average unemployment rate of 10.8 percent. Manufacturing is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 2.5 percent growth annually. Education and Health Services and Professional & Business Services follow with average growth rates of 1.8 percent and 1.2 percent respectively. The Construction and Mining and the Federal Government sectors are the only sectors that will experience declines, with annual growth rates of -0.3 percent and -2.4 percent respectively.

Quick Facts:

• Population estimate of 536,357 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 266,723 in April 2010 (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• An unemployment rate of 11.4% as of April 2010, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 30,499 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• Brevard County Schools – 8535 employees

M etr o Ne w s Summarie s

• United Space Alliance – 6300 employees

Obama tries to get support of space plan off ground

• Harris Corporation – 6391 employees • Health First, Inc. – 6000 employees • 45th Space Wing – 4174 employees

• Space Gateway Support – 3000 employees • Brevard County – 2500 employees

• Wuesthoff Health System, Inc. – 2400 employees • Northrop Grumman Corporation – 2000 employees • The Boeing Co. – 1962 employees

• President Obama visited the Space Coast to make a proposal to desert the manned mission to the moon.

• The President spoke on his modified plan to develop a smaller version of NASA’s Orion spacecraft. This would abolish the need to buy the spacecraft from Russia, offsetting the possible job losses at Kennedy Space Center.

• Obama has a $40 million, multi-agency initiative planned for the Space Coast to restore its Source: Economic Development of Florida’s Space Coast economy, and proposed a $6 billion budget boost for NASA over five years .

• NASA – 1577 employees

Source: USA Today, April 16, 2010

102

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010


P a l m B ay – M e l b o ur n e – T itu s v i l l e

Harris Corp. wins $72 million contract

• The Department of Veteran’s Affairs chose Harris Corporation to expand the Consolidated Patient Account Center business model. • The payment will be divided over three years, with the contract containing one base-year with two one-year options. • The effort is intended to advance billing and collection activities across 16 networks and 108 medical centers associated with VA.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, April 21, 2010

SCCU pulls off rare merger

300 KSC workers set to lose jobs today

• On June 4th, 300 United Space Alliance employees were let go from their jobs at the Kennedy Space Center. All layoffs were “selfnominated,” or voluntary.

• Laid-off employees will receive a severance package equaling a week’s pay, multiplied by the number of years the employee was with the company.

• An estimated 8,000 employees of Kennedy Space Center will be let go at the termination of the shuttle program. Source: Florida Today, June 4, 2010

• Space Coast Credit Union was asked by federal regulators to help and assist Eastern Financial Florida Credit Union. This temporary assistance has turned into a more permanent arrangement. • The EFFCU is now functioning as a division of the SCCU. Together, they have 360,000 members, 875 employees, and $3.1 billion in assets.

• The merge has left the Union with a rating of two stars, instead of its former four stars, but SCCU sees the decline as short-term. Source: Florida Today, May 2, 2010

Melbourne airport’s marketing takes off

• US Airways is working with Melbourne International Airport to boost promotion for the airport’s newest carrier.

• Melbourne International would lay out $100,000, while US Airways would bring $200,000 to the table. • The money will go to improving the website and ongoing marketing efforts. The executives will not only focus on the Melbourne area, but also on large cities along the East Coast, encouraging travelers to fly into Melbourne International. Source: Florida Today, May 3, 2010

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

103


P a l m B ay – M e l b o ur n e – T itu s v i l l e Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.5

Florida & Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Unemployment Rate 14.0%

(percent)

1

Palm Bay Payroll Employment 280.0

8.0%

220.0

6.0%

200.0

4.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 FL Unemployment Rate Palm Bay Unemployment Rate

160.0

(Millions 2000 $)

10.0% 8.0%

30000.0

6.0%

25000.0

4.0%

20000.0

2.0%

15000.0

0.0%

10000.0

-2.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Gross Metro Product Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Palm Bay Payroll Employment

Palm Bay Real Personal Income

35000.0

104

(Thousands)

180.0

Palm Bay Real Gross Metro Product

5000.0

2.5

240.0

10.0%

40000.0

2

260.0

12.0%

2.0%

1.5

-4.0%

(percent change year ago)

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Personal Income


P a l m B ay – M e l b o ur n e – T itu s v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

20.4 5.2 9.2 11.2 16.5 3.6 38 30.7 47.2 3.4

20.6 5.3 9.3 11.4 16.6 4.1 38.4 30.9 47.5 3.3

20.7 5.3 9.2 11.5 16.6 4 38.6 30.9 47.9 3.3

21 4 9.3 11.6 16.7 2.4 39 31.1 48.2 2.8

21.3 4.3 9.5 11.8 16.9 2.6 39.5 31.4 48.4 2.7

21.5 4.4 9.6 11.9 17 2.6 39.9 31.6 48.7 2.5

21.8 5.2 9.7 12.1 17.2 3.4 40.4 31.8 49 2.4

22.2 5.6 9.9 12.3 17.4 3.8 40.9 32.1 49.3 2.4

22.5 5.5 10 12.4 17.5 3.7 41.3 32.3 49.6 2.5

22.7 5.5 10.2 12.6 17.7 3.6 41.7 32.4 50 2.6

23 5.2 10.3 12.6 17.7 3.2 42 32.4 50.4 2.8

23.2 4.7 10.5 12.8 17.9 2.8 42.3 32.6 50.8 3

23.5 4.6 10.6 12.9 18 2.7 42.7 32.7 51.2 3.1

23.8 4.6 10.7 13.1 18.1 2.7 43 32.8 51.5 3.1

193.2 0.6 22.4 4.4 170.8 0.1 8.4 -1 32.5 0.3 5.4 24.2 2.9 2.9 3.8 7.8 1.8 31.1 -1.5 32.1 2.6 20.4 -0.3 7.4 0.7 5.8 -5.6 22.4 -0.6

194.3 1.3 22.6 4.5 171.6 0.8 8.5 1.6 32.8 1 5.5 24.4 2.9 2.9 3.4 7.9 3.6 31.3 -0.6 32.3 2.9 20.4 -0.1 7.4 0.8 5.8 -2.8 22.4 0

195.3 3.2 23 5.2 172.3 3 8.7 4.2 33 1.8 5.5 24.6 3 2.9 3 8 3.9 31.4 9.5 32.4 2.9 20.5 0.3 7.4 0.4 5.7 -2.3 22.5 0.4

197.7 3.4 23.2 5 174.5 3.2 8.9 6.2 33.3 2.8 5.6 24.7 3 3 2.4 8 3.5 32.4 8.4 32.6 2.6 20.6 1 7.4 0.1 5.7 -1.6 22.5 0.9

199.1 3.1 23.5 4.9 175.6 2.8 9 7 33.6 3.3 5.6 24.9 3.1 3 2.3 8.1 3.1 32.7 4.8 32.8 2.2 20.8 1.9 7.4 0.3 5.7 -1.2 22.6 1.2

200.5 3.2 23.7 4.5 176.8 3 9.2 7.7 33.9 3.4 5.7 25 3.1 3 2.4 8.1 2.4 32.9 5.2 32.9 1.9 20.9 2.8 7.4 0.3 5.7 -0.9 22.7 1.6

201.8 3.3 23.9 4.1 177.9 3.2 9.4 8.7 34.1 3.4 5.8 25.1 3.1 3 2.7 8.1 1.8 33.3 6.1 32.9 1.7 21 2.7 7.4 0.4 5.7 -0.6 22.8 1.8

203.1 2.7 24.1 3.6 179 2.6 9.6 8.8 34.4 3.4 5.8 25.3 3.1 3 3 8.1 1.5 33.6 3.4 33.1 1.5 21.1 2.2 7.4 0.4 5.7 -0.8 23 1.9

204.1 2.6 24.2 3 180 2.5 9.8 8.7 34.6 3.1 5.9 25.4 3.2 3.1 2.9 8.2 1.2 33.8 3.6 33.2 1.3 21.1 1.6 7.4 0.2 5.7 -0.8 23.1 2

205.1 2.3 24.3 2.5 180.8 2.3 10 8.4 34.8 2.7 5.9 25.5 3.2 3.1 2.6 8.2 1 34.1 3.6 33.3 1.1 21.2 1.1 7.4 0 5.7 -0.9 23.2 2

14511 14558.3 14428.7 14597.5 14791.4 14916.5 15037.3 15249.8 15397.1 15541.3 15652.3 15775.8 15895.4 537 537.2 537.4 537.9 538.6 539.5 540.6 542 543.5 545.1 546.9 548.8 550.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1 1.2 1.3 1.3 270.7 270.6 270.4 270 269.8 269.7 269.5 269.3 268.9 269.4 270.1 270.8 271.5 1 0.4 0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.5 1 12.4 12.3 12.4 12 11.6 11.1 10.7 10.3 9.8 9.5 9.2 8.9 8.7 1176 1372 2115 2702 3311 3733 4198 4566 4943 5090 5163 5356 5465 1598 1694 2012 2521 3060 3517 3817 4105 4411 4480 4501 4659 4743 -422 -322 103 180 252 216 381 461 532 611 661 697 722

16004 552.9 1.4 272.3 1.1 8.5 5472 4728 743

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

192.1 -1.8 21.4 -0.8 170.7 -1.9 8.5 -10.6 32.4 -1.9 5.3 24.1 2.8 2.8 -5.9 7.7 -3.4 31.6 -2.5 31.3 1.4 20.5 -1.6 7.3 -0.8 6.1 -2 22.5 -1.5

191.9 -1.2 21.7 2.5 170.2 -1.6 8.4 -8.3 32.4 -1.6 5.2 24.1 2.8 2.8 -2.1 7.6 -2.5 31.5 -1.3 31.4 1 20.4 -2.2 7.3 0.2 5.9 -8 22.4 -1

189.2 -2.1 21.8 3.5 167.3 -2.8 8.3 -7 32.4 -0.6 5.2 24.1 2.8 2.9 1.2 7.7 -0.4 28.6 -10.7 31.5 1.5 20.4 -0.9 7.3 1.1 5.9 -10.2 22.4 -1.4

191.1 -1 22.1 4.3 169 -1.7 8.3 -4.9 32.4 -0.2 5.3 24.2 2.8 2.9 3.1 7.7 0.6 29.9 -6.5 31.8 2.1 20.4 -0.1 7.4 0.7 5.8 -12.3 22.3 -1.4

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

105


P a l m B ay – M e l b o ur n e – T itu s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

15.1 5.7 7.5 7.5

16.3 8.1 8.2 8.1

17.6 7.8 8.9 8.7

18.9 7.5 9.4 9.5

19.5 3.2 9.5 10

19.9 1.9 9.5 10.4

19.5 -2 9.1 10.4

20.2 3.9 9.2 11

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

14.3 3.6

15.1 5.4

15.8 4.7

16.5 4.6

16.6 0.5

16.4 -1.4

16 -2.1

16.4 2.2

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

29.9 28.3

31.5 29.2

33.4 30

35.6 31.1

36.5 31

37 30.5

36.3 29.8

37.7 30.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

37.7 4.9

39.8 5.5

41.6 4.5

42.8 2.9

43.7 2.1

45 3

45.6 1.4

47 2.9

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

196.9 1.9

204 3.6

211 3.4

216.4 2.5

213.8 -1.2

207.4 -3

196.5 -5.2

192.6 -2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

22.8 -0.5

23.6 3.8

23.9 1.2

24.6 2.7

24.1 -1.8

23.7 -1.6

21.9 -7.8

21.3 -2.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

174.1 2.3

180.4 3.6

187.1 3.7

191.8 2.5

189.7 -1.1

183.7 -3.2

174.6 -4.9

171.3 -1.9

13 2.3

14.8 13.6

17.2 16.2

18.1 5

15.4 -15

13 -15.4

10 -23.1

8.7 -13.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

34.2 -1.6

35.5 3.7

37.1 4.5

37.4 1

36.9 -1.5

35.5 -3.8

33.2 -6.4

32.5 -2.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.6 26.3 3.3

4.7 27.2 3.6

5.2 28 3.8

5.5 28.3 3.6

5.6 28 3.3

5.5 26.8 3.1

5.3 25.1 2.9

5.3 24.2 2.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.8 0

2.8 -0.9

2.9 6

2.9 0.1

2.9 -2.6

2.9 2.3

3.1 4.6

2.8 -7.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.3 0.7

7.8 5.8

8.4 7.8

8.6 2.4

8.6 0.3

8.3 -3.4

7.9 -4.7

7.7 -3.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

33.8 3.2

34.5 2.2

36 4.3

37.3 3.6

36.9 -1.1

34.5 -6.3

32.3 -6.6

31.8 -1.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

26.7 5.7

26.8 0.3

27.3 1.8

28.2 3.1

29.3 4

30.6 4.7

30.9 0.8

31.2 1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

20.2 1.7

21.1 4.4

21.8 3.3

22.5 3.3

22.9 1.5

21.9 -4.2

20.9 -4.3

20.5 -2.3

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8.2 8.4

8.4 1.6

8.1 -2.8

8.1 -0.7

8 -1

7.9 -1.5

7.4 -6.5

7.3 -0.9

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

5.7 1.2

5.9 3.9

6.1 1.8

6.2 1.7

6.2 0.5

6.2 0

6.3 1.3

6.3 0.7

22.1 2.6

22.9 3.3

22.2 -2.8

22.6 1.7

22.8 1.1

22.8 0

22.8 -0.3

22.6 -0.9

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

12297

13005.4

13986.3

14599

14457.6

14365.2

14015.3

14451.4

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

504.8 1.9

517 2.4

526.2 1.8

530.8 0.9

534.5 0.7

536.2 0.3

536.4 0

536.9 0.1

242 1.6

247.6 2.3

258.3 4.3

263 1.8

264.4 0.5

268.4 1.5

268.8 0.2

270.4 0.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

106

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

5.2

4.4

3.6

3.2

4.2

6.5

10.5

12.4

6111 5574 537

8211 6309 1902

8478 7198 1280

5349 4371 977

2824 2209 615

1774 1282 492

997 882 115

1436 1584 -148

Continued


P a l m B ay – M e l b o ur n e – T itu s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

21.1 4.5 9.4 11.7

22.3 5.5 10 12.3

23.4 4.8 10.5 12.8

24.7 5.9 11.1 13.7

26.2 5.9 11.6 14.6

27.8 6 12.2 15.6

29.4 5.9 12.7 16.7

31 5.6 13.3 17.8

32.8 5.8 13.9 19

34.7 5.7 14.5 20.2

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

16.8 2.9

17.4 3.6

17.9 2.9

18.6 3.9

19.3 3.8

20.1 3.9

20.9 3.8

21.6 3.5

22.4 3.8

23.3 3.8

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

39.3 31.3

41.1 32.1

42.5 32.6

44.3 33.4

46.3 34.2

48.5 35.1

50.7 36

52.8 36.8

55 37.6

57.2 38.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

48.3 2.8

49.5 2.5

51 3

52.6 3.2

54.3 3.3

56.2 3.4

58.1 3.4

60.1 3.4

62.1 3.4

64.1 3.2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

191.9 -0.3

198.1 3.2

203.5 2.7

207.2 1.8

210.4 1.5

213.5 1.5

216.1 1.2

218.4 1.1

220.6 1

223.1 1.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

22.2 4.2

23.3 4.9

24.1 3.3

24.4 1.1

24.3 -0.3

24.1 -0.6

24 -0.5

23.9 -0.4

23.8 -0.6

23.6 -0.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

169.7 -0.9

174.8 3

179.4 2.6

182.8 1.9

186.1 1.8

189.3 1.8

192.1 1.4

194.4 1.2

196.9 1.3

199.5 1.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

8.4 -2.9

8.9 6.3

9.7 8.7

10.2 5.3

10.5 2.8

10.9 3.3

11.2 3.1

11.5 2.8

11.7 1.6

11.9 1.7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

32.5 0.1

33.4 2.8

34.5 3.2

35.1 1.8

35.6 1.3

35.7 0.5

35.8 0.2

36 0.4

36.2 0.6

36.4 0.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.3 24.2 2.9

5.6 24.8 3

5.9 25.3 3.2

6.1 25.6 3.3

6.2 25.7 3.4

6.3 25.7 3.5

6.4 25.5 3.5

6.6 25.5 3.6

6.7 25.5 3.6

6.8 25.5 3.6

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.9 2.9

3 2.5

3 2.8

3.1 1.7

3.1 1.4

3.2 1.6

3.2 1.8

3.3 1.3

3.3 1.3

3.4 0.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.8 1.4

8 3.2

8.1 1.4

8.2 0.6

8.3 0.8

8.3 0.8

8.4 0.7

8.4 0.4

8.5 0.6

8.5 0.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

30.2 -4.9

32.3 6.9

33.7 4.2

34.7 3.1

36 3.7

37.4 3.7

38.5 3

39.3 2.2

40.3 2.3

41.2 2.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

31.9 2.3

32.7 2.4

33.1 1.4

33.7 1.8

34.5 2.2

35.4 2.8

36.2 2.2

37 2.1

37.7 2

38.6 2.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

20.4 -0.4

20.7 1.5

21.1 1.9

21.2 0.4

21.2 0

21.2 0

21.1 -0.2

21.1 -0.3

21.1 0

21 -0.4

7.4 0.8

7.4 0.3

7.4 0.3

7.4 0.6

7.5 0.4

7.5 0.2

7.5 0.1

7.5 -0.1

7.5 0

7.5 0

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

5.8 -7.9

5.7 -1.5

5.7 -0.8

5.7 -0.4

5.7 0

5.7 0.3

5.7 0.5

5.7 0.5

5.8 0.7

6.1 5.3

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

22.4 -0.8

22.6 1

23 1.9

23.4 1.7

23.8 1.5

24 1.2

24.3 1.2

24.6 1

24.8 1

25 0.8

14683.5

15306.4

15831.9

16369.5

16901.4

17444.7

17949.1

18459.9

19007.4

19553.8

538.4 0.3

542.8 0.8

549.8 1.3

558.3 1.5

566 1.4

573 1.2

580 1.2

587.8 1.4

597.1 1.6

607.6 1.8

270 -0.1

269.3 -0.3

271.2 0.7

274 1

278.1 1.5

282.1 1.4

286 1.4

290 1.4

293.9 1.4

297.6 1.3

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%)

11.8

10.1

8.8

8

7.7

7.3

6.9

6.6

6.2

5.8

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2965 2777 188

4699 4203 496

5364 4658 706

5490 4675 814

5638 4685 953

5830 4783 1047

5907 4816 1090

5956 4846 1110

6058 4904 1155

6127 4940 1186

Continued

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

107


P a l m B ay – M e l b o ur n e – T itu s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

36.6 5.4 15.1 21.5

38.6 5.3 15.8 22.8

40.5 5 16.5 24

42.5 5 17.2 25.3

44.7 5.1 17.9 26.7

47 5.1 18.8 28.2

49.4 5.2 19.6 29.8

51.8 5 20.5 31.3

54.4 4.9 21.5 32.9

57.1 4.9 22.5 34.5

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

24.1 3.6

25 3.5

25.8 3.2

26.5 3

27.4 3.1

28.3 3.2

29.2 3.3

30.1 3

31 3

31.9 3

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

59.2 39

61.3 39.7

63.3 40.2

65.3 40.8

67.5 41.3

69.8 42

72.2 42.6

74.5 43.2

77 43.8

79.5 44.4

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

66.2 3.3

68.4 3.3

70.6 3.2

72.9 3.2

75.3 3.3

77.9 3.4

80.6 3.4

83.3 3.4

86.2 3.5

89.2 3.4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

225.3 1

228.2 1.3

230.7 1.1

232.9 0.9

235.5 1.1

238.3 1.2

241 1.1

243.7 1.1

246.6 1.2

249.8 1.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

23.3 -1.3

23 -1.5

22.6 -1.7

22.2 -1.4

22 -1.1

21.8 -1

21.6 -0.9

21.4 -1

21.2 -0.8

21.1 -0.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

202 1.3

205.2 1.6

208.2 1.4

210.7 1.2

213.5 1.4

216.5 1.4

219.4 1.3

222.3 1.3

225.4 1.4

228.7 1.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

12.2 2.1

12.4 2.4

12.7 2.4

13 2

13.3 2.2

13.7 2.8

14 2.3

14.2 1.9

14.5 1.8

14.8 2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

36.6 0.8

37.2 1.6

37.8 1.5

38.2 1.3

38.7 1.2

39.2 1.2

39.6 1.2

40.1 1.2

40.6 1.1

40.9 0.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

7 25.6 3.7

7.2 25.8 3.8

7.4 26.1 3.9

7.6 26.3 4

7.7 26.5 4

7.9 26.7 4.1

8.1 27 4.2

8.2 27.2 4.2

8.4 27.4 4.3

8.6 27.6 4.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.4 1.2

3.5 1.5

3.5 1.5

3.5 1.2

3.6 1.3

3.6 1.6

3.7 1.8

3.8 2

3.9 2.2

3.9 1.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.5 0.4

8.6 1.2

8.7 1.1

8.8 1.1

9 1.4

9.1 1.4

9.2 1.4

9.3 1.4

9.5 1.4

9.6 1.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

42.4 2.9

43.6 2.8

44.6 2.2

45.3 1.6

46.3 2.1

47.3 2.3

48.2 1.9

49.2 2

50.3 2.3

51.4 2.2

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

39.1 1.4

39.7 1.4

40.2 1.4

40.8 1.3

41.3 1.3

41.8 1.3

42.4 1.4

43 1.4

43.6 1.5

44.2 1.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

21 0.1

21.1 0.5

21.2 0.3

21.2 0.2

21.3 0.3

21.4 0.5

21.5 0.6

21.7 0.6

21.8 0.7

21.9 0.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.5 0.6

7.6 1

7.7 0.8

7.7 0.8

7.8 1

7.9 0.6

7.9 0.4

7.9 0.4

8 0.4

8 0.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6 -2.1

6 1

6.1 0.6

6.1 0.6

6.1 0.6

6.2 0.6

6.2 0.6

6.2 0.6

6.3 0.6

6.7 6.9

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

25.2 0.8

25.5 0.9

25.7 1

25.9 0.8

26.2 1

26.4 0.8

26.6 0.8

26.8 0.8

27 0.8

27.2 0.7

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

20127.2

20759.4

21391.1

22028.4

22713.2

23387.9

24044.6

24707.6

25390.2

26122.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

618.2 1.7

628.9 1.7

639.9 1.7

650.9 1.7

662 1.7

673.1 1.7

684.3 1.7

695.4 1.6

706.4 1.6

717.8 1.6

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

300.9 1.1

304.1 1.1

307.5 1.1

311.1 1.2

314.9 1.2

319.3 1.4

323.9 1.4

328.5 1.4

333.2 1.4

338 1.4

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

108

5.6

5.5

5.4

5.4

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.6

5.6

5.6

6069 4887 1182

6165 4948 1217

6234 5002 1232

6303 5076 1227

6405 5176 1229

6458 5227 1231

6364 5138 1226

6221 5001 1220

6124 4921 1203

6154 4960 1194

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

Continued


P a l m B ay – M e l b o ur n e – T itu s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

59.8 4.9 23.6 36.3

62.8 5 24.8 38.1

65.9 4.8 25.9 40

69 4.7 27 42

72.2 4.6 28.1 44

75.5 4.6 29.3 46.2

78.9 4.5 30.6 48.4

82.4 4.5 31.8 50.6

86.1 4.4 33.1 53

89.9 4.5 34.5 55.4

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

32.8 3

33.8 3.1

34.8 2.9

35.7 2.7

36.7 2.6

37.7 2.7

38.6 2.5

39.6 2.4

40.5 2.4

41.5 2.4

82 45

84.7 45.6

87.4 46.2

90.1 46.7

92.8 47.2

95.7 47.7

98.6 48.2

101.5 48.7

104.5 49.2

107.6 49.7

92.3 3.5

95.6 3.5

98.9 3.4

102.1 3.3

105.5 3.3

109 3.3

112.6 3.3

116.3 3.3

120 3.2

124.1 3.4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

252.8 1.2

256.5 1.5

259.6 1.2

261.9 0.9

264.1 0.8

266.5 0.9

268.9 0.9

271 0.8

273.3 0.8

275.7 0.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

21 -0.5

20.8 -0.6

20.7 -0.7

20.5 -0.7

20.4 -0.8

20.2 -0.6

20.1 -0.6

20 -0.5

20 -0.2

20 0

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

231.9 1.4

235.7 1.7

238.9 1.3

241.4 1.1

243.7 1

246.2 1.1

248.8 1

251 0.9

253.3 0.9

255.7 1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

15.2 2.7

15.6 2.8

16 2.7

16.3 1.9

16.6 1.6

16.9 1.7

17.2 1.9

17.5 1.7

17.8 1.7

18 1.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

41.3 0.9

41.7 0.8

42 0.9

42.3 0.7

42.6 0.6

42.8 0.7

43.1 0.6

43.4 0.7

43.7 0.7

44 0.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

8.7 27.8 4.3

8.7 28.1 4.3

8.8 28.3 4.4

8.8 28.6 4.4

8.9 28.8 4.4

8.9 29 4.4

9 29.2 4.3

9 29.5 4.3

9 29.8 4.3

9.1 30 4.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

4 2.5

4.2 3

4.3 2.4

4.3 1.6

4.4 1.4

4.5 1.7

4.6 2

4.6 1.9

4.7 1.8

4.8 1.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

9.8 1.6

9.9 1.7

10.1 1.5

10.2 1.4

10.4 1.3

10.5 1.4

10.6 1.3

10.8 1.2

10.9 1.1

11 0.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

52.7 2.6

54.3 3

55.4 2

56.3 1.5

57.1 1.4

58 1.6

58.9 1.6

59.6 1.2

60.3 1.1

61.3 1.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

44.9 1.5

45.6 1.7

46.2 1.3

46.7 1.1

47.2 0.9

47.7 1

48.1 0.9

48.6 1.1

49.1 1

49.6 0.9

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

22.1 0.8

22.3 0.9

22.5 0.9

22.7 0.7

22.8 0.7

23 0.7

23.1 0.6

23.2 0.4

23.4 0.7

23.4 0.1

8 0.3

8 0.3

8.1 0.4

8.1 0.4

8.1 0.3

8.2 0.4

8.2 0.1

8.2 0

8.2 0

8.2 -0.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.4 -4.2

6.5 0.6

6.5 0.6

6.5 0.6

6.6 0.6

6.6 0.5

6.7 0.5

6.7 0.5

6.7 0.5

7.1 5.4

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

27.4 0.7

27.6 0.6

27.7 0.6

27.9 0.5

28 0.5

28.2 0.5

28.3 0.4

28.4 0.3

28.5 0.3

28.5 0.3

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

26898.4

27689.2

28479.2

29268.5

30062.9

30907.8

31792.7

32675

33620

34642.4

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

729.9 1.7

741.9 1.6

753.9 1.6

765.7 1.6

777.3 1.5

789 1.5

800.5 1.5

812 1.4

823.5 1.4

835.2 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

342.7 1.4

347.4 1.4

352.2 1.4

356.9 1.3

361.7 1.3

366.4 1.3

371.2 1.3

376 1.3

381 1.3

385.7 1.2

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.8

5.8

5.8

5.8

5.9

5.9

5.9

6127 4941 1187

6003 4810 1194

5962 4777 1185

5998 4821 1177

6031 4870 1161

6025 4895 1131

5953 4852 1100

5874 4792 1082

5842 4771 1071

5798 4742 1056

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

109


P e n s ac o l a – F erry P a s s – B re n t

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Summarie s

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is comprised of Escambia County and Santa Rosa County. Located in the northwest corner of the state bordering Alabama, this region is home to the Pensacola Naval Air Station, Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval Aviation. This area has been referred to as the “Cradle of Naval Aviation.”

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is expected to see low levels of growth in the economic indicators, relative to other metro areas. Personal income growth is expected to average 4.9 percent each year. The per capita income level is expected to be 28.9. The average annual wage growth rate should be at 2.5 percent, tied for lowest in the state. The average annual wage level is expected to be 41.6. Population growth will be at a rate of 0.6 percent, one of the lowest in the state, and the Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 11,580.55 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to average 1.2 percent each year. The unemployment rate will average 9.8 percent, one of the lowest in the state. Professional and Business Services will be the fastest growing sector in Pensacola, with 4.4 percent average annual growth. Manufacturing follows with a growth rate of 1.9 percent. The State and Local Government sector and the Federal Government sector are expected to decrease with average annual growth rates of -0.2 percent and -2.2 percent respectively.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 455,102 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Escambia County population estimate of 303,343 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Santa Rosa County population estimate of 151,759 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 212,083 in April 2010 (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• An unemployment rate of 10.2% as of April 2010, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 21,584 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Database) TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

M etr o Ne w s Summarie s

• Federal Government – 7,403 employees

• More jobs are becoming available in Pensacola Beach, due in part to the Hurricane Ivan redevelopment projects, and to businesses opening, expanding, and relocating to the area within the past year.

• Local Government – 15,790 employees • State Government – 5,970 employees

• Sacred Heart Health System – 5,000 employees • Baptist Heath Care – 3,163 employees • Lakeview – 2,000 employees

• Gulf Power Company – 1,400 employees • Solutia, Inc. – 1,400 employees

• West Florida Hospital – 1,300 employees

• University of West Florida – 1,231 employees

Source: Greater Pensacola Chamber of Commerce

Pensacola Beach is on the rebound

• Three of the newest, major beach projects are expected to create 300 management and service jobs, both full and part-time.

• These projects include the $8 million The Grand Marlin opening, the completion of a $50 million Gulf-front luxury boutique hotel, and renovations to Castaway’s on Portofino Boardwalk. Source: Pensacola News Journal, April 30, 2010

110

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010


P e n s ac o l a – F erry P a s s – B re n t

$400K grant helps Escambia clean up brownfield sites • The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has awarded Escambia County $400,000 to assess, clean up, and redevelop brownfield sites.

• Brownfield sites are areas of land that have toxic chemicals in the ground, left behind by old gas stations, dry cleaners, or other businesses that deal with toxic chemicals.

• Escambia County has 17 designated brownfield sites, where expansion or redevelopment of these areas is more complicated due to the pollution. Source: Pensacola News Journal, May 5, 2010

Crist sends $1.2M to Escambia, Santa Rosa

• Governor Charlie Crist has sent Escambia and Santa Rosa Counties a combined $1.2 million in emergency tourism advertising dollars.

• Escambia County’s Tourist Development Council received $700,000 of the funds, and the Tourist Development Council in Santa Rosa County received $500,000.

• Officials fear that national news coverage has convinced potential tourists that the beaches are covered in oil. The region’s tourism industry was affected as soon as the oil spill occurred. Source: Pensacola News Journal, June 1, 2010

Agreement will allow Milton prison to open on November 1

Oil spill: Sink meets with business owners

• The original contract between GEO and the state had projected an inmate population mix that would require chronic medical and mental health treatment.

• Sink visited the Escambia County Emergency Operations Center for a briefing on local response to the oil spill.

• The State of Florida and the private GEO Group have reached an agreement to open the Blackwater River Correctional Facility in East Milton.

• Due to budgetary constraints, the state revised the contract to allow for a less-costly inmate population mix of medium and close-custody security adult male inmates.

• Florida’s Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink visited local business owners to hear their concerns about the economic impact the oil spill will have on the area. She advised business owners to “get cash in your hands.”

• She sent a letter to BP executives requesting that the company’s CEO, Tony Hayward, appear before the state Cabinet. Source: Pensacola News Journal, June 3, 2010

Source: Pensacola News Journal, May 6, 2010

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

111


P e n s ac o l a – F erry P a s s – B re n t Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

112

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Pensacola Payroll Employment 220.0

(Thousands)

180.0 160.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 FL Unemployment Rate Pensacola Unemployment Rate

140.0

Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product 24000.0 22000.0 20000.0 18000.0 16000.0 14000.0 12000.0 10000.0 8000.0

0.8

200.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.4

(Millions 2000 $)

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Pensacola Payroll Employment

Pensacola Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Gross Metro Product Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

-4.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Personal Income


P e n s ac o l a – F erry P a s s – B re n t

Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

15.9 7 6.9 9.1 12.9 5.5 34.8 28.1 40.3 3.2

16.1 6.6 6.9 9.2 13 5.3 35.1 28.3 40.6 3

16.2 7.1 6.9 9.3 13 5.7 35.5 28.4 40.8 2.9

16.4 3.7 7 9.4 13.1 2.1 35.7 28.5 41 2.5

16.6 4 7.1 9.5 13.2 2.3 36.1 28.7 41.2 2.3

16.8 4.2 7.2 9.6 13.3 2.4 36.5 28.9 41.4 2.1

17 4.6 7.3 9.7 13.4 2.8 36.9 29 41.6 2

17.2 5 7.3 9.9 13.5 3.2 37.3 29.2 41.8 2

17.4 5.2 7.4 10 13.6 3.3 37.7 29.4 42.1 2.1

17.6 5.1 7.5 10.1 13.7 3.2 38 29.5 42.3 2.2

17.8 4.7 7.6 10.2 13.7 2.8 38.3 29.6 42.6 2.4

18 4.5 7.7 10.2 13.8 2.5 38.6 29.7 42.9 2.6

18.2 4.4 7.8 10.4 13.9 2.4 38.9 29.8 43.2 2.7

18.4 4.4 7.9 10.5 14 2.5 39.3 29.9 43.5 2.7

156.9 0.8 5.4 3.4 151.5 0.7 9.7 -1.6 29.9 0.3 5.3 20 4.6 3 3.4 8.5 1.4 21.2 7.4 28.9 2.2 15.5 -3.5 6.9 0.7 6.1 -5.9 21.7 -1.1

158 1.7 5.4 3.6 152.6 1.7 9.8 1 30.1 1 5.3 20.1 4.7 3.1 3 8.6 3.2 21.4 6 29.1 2.5 15.8 0.6 7 0.7 6.1 -3.2 21.7 -0.6

159.4 2.9 5.5 4.4 153.9 2.8 9.9 3.6 30.3 1.8 5.4 20.2 4.7 3.1 2.5 8.7 3.4 21.6 4.2 29.1 2.5 16.6 10.7 7 0.3 6 -2.7 21.7 -0.2

160.7 3.2 5.6 4.4 155.2 3.1 10.1 5.5 30.6 2.8 5.4 20.3 4.8 3.1 2 8.7 3 21.7 3.3 29.3 2.2 17.1 11.7 6.9 0 6 -2 21.7 0.3

161.9 3.2 5.6 4.3 156.3 3.2 10.3 6.3 30.8 3.1 5.5 20.5 4.9 3.1 1.9 8.8 2.6 21.9 3.2 29.4 1.7 17.3 11.5 7 0.2 6 -1.5 21.8 0.6

163.2 3.3 5.6 3.9 157.5 3.3 10.5 7 31 3.2 5.5 20.6 4.9 3.1 2 8.8 1.9 22.2 3.7 29.5 1.4 17.5 10.9 7 0.2 6 -1.2 21.9 0.9

164.3 3 5.7 3.4 158.6 3 10.7 8 31.2 3.2 5.6 20.7 4.9 3.1 2.2 8.8 1.3 22.6 4.9 29.5 1.3 17.7 6.7 7 0.3 6 -1 21.9 1.1

165.7 3.1 5.7 2.9 160 3.1 10.9 8.1 31.5 3.1 5.6 20.8 5 3.2 2.5 8.8 1 22.9 5.9 29.6 1.1 18.1 6.2 7 0.2 6 -1.1 22 1.3

166.7 2.9 5.7 2.4 160.9 2.9 11.1 8 31.7 2.8 5.7 20.9 5 3.2 2.5 8.8 0.7 23.2 6.1 29.7 0.9 18.2 5.3 7 0.1 6 -1.2 22.1 1.4

167.4 2.6 5.8 1.9 161.7 2.6 11.3 7.6 31.8 2.4 5.7 21 5.1 3.2 2.2 8.8 0.5 23.6 6.1 29.7 0.6 18.3 4.2 7 -0.1 5.9 -1.3 22.2 1.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

155.6 -1.3 5.2 1 150.4 -1.4 9.8 -5.7 29.8 -1.4 5.2 20 4.5 2.9 -3.9 8.4 -1 19.8 0.7 28.3 0.4 16.1 -5.3 6.9 1.2 6.5 -0.5 21.9 -1.5

155.3 -1.9 5.2 3.8 150.1 -2 9.7 -5.6 29.8 0 5.2 20 4.5 3 -2.7 8.4 -2 20.2 3.1 28.4 -0.4 15.7 -10.9 6.9 1 6.3 -3.4 21.8 -3.2

155 -1.8 5.3 3.6 149.7 -2 9.6 -5.8 29.7 -0.1 5.2 20 4.5 3 1.5 8.4 -1.3 20.7 5.6 28.4 0 15 -14.9 6.9 1.2 6.2 -6.7 21.7 -2.1

155.8 -1 5.3 3.3 150.5 -1.2 9.6 -5.4 29.7 -0.4 5.2 19.9 4.5 3 2.7 8.5 0.1 21 7.9 28.7 1.7 15.3 -11.2 6.9 0.7 6.2 -12.8 21.7 -1.9

11130.4 11174.3 11202.9 11274.1 11371.1 457.8 458 458.2 458.5 459.1 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 214 213.4 212.8 212 211.3 1.6 0.6 -0.7 -1.2 -1.2 11.4 11.4 11.2 11 10.5 1565 1589 1878 2075 2235 1697 1670 1760 1931 2078 -131 -81 117 144 157

11464 11561.9 11670.1 11773.9 11876.7 11952.1 12049.6 12135.2 12208.7 459.8 460.6 461.6 462.6 463.6 464.7 465.9 467.1 468.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1 1 210.7 210.1 209.5 208.7 208.9 209.2 209.5 209.9 210.2 -1.2 -1.3 -1.2 -1.3 -0.9 -0.4 0 0.6 0.6 10.1 9.8 9.4 9 8.7 8.3 8 7.8 7.6 2246 2352 2397 2527 2588 2623 2713 2764 2758 2136 2203 2255 2361 2398 2417 2497 2541 2530 110 149 143 165 190 206 217 223 227

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

113


P e n s ac o l a – F erry P a s s – B re n t

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

11.3 4.4 5.5 5.8

12.1 7.9 5.9 6.2

13 7.2 6.3 6.7

14.1 8.6 6.8 7.4

14.7 4 6.9 7.8

15.1 2.8 6.9 8.2

14.9 -1.1 6.8 8.2

15.8 5.5 6.9 8.9

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

10.7 2.3

11.2 5.1

11.7 4.1

12.3 5.7

12.5 1.3

12.4 -0.6

12.3 -1.3

12.7 3.8

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

25.9 24.6

27.6 25.5

29.2 26.2

31.4 27.5

32.6 27.7

33.3 27.4

32.8 27

34.4 27.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

31.5 3

33.3 6

34.6 3.9

36.4 5.1

37.2 2.3

38.5 3.4

39.1 1.5

40.1 2.8

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

158.8 2.5

163.2 2.8

169 3.6

173.4 2.6

173.5 0.1

166.1 -4.3

158.4 -4.6

156.5 -1.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

7.4 1.1

7.3 -1.3

7.5 3.1

7.4 -1.4

7 -5.3

6.5 -7.9

5.3 -18

5.2 -2.7

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

151.4 2.6

155.9 3

161.5 3.6

166 2.8

166.5 0.3

159.6 -4.1

153.1 -4.1

151.4 -1.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

10.8 -2.8

11.6 7.8

13.9 19.4

15.4 10.4

14.7 -3.9

12.7 -14.1

10.7 -15.9

9.9 -6.7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

30.2 1

31.2 3.1

33.1 6.1

33 -0.2

33.8 2.5

32.3 -4.5

30.3 -6.3

29.8 -1.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.3 20.8 4.1

5.6 21.1 4.5

6.2 21.9 5

6.2 21.8 5

6.7 22.2 4.9

6.1 21.3 4.9

5.4 20.2 4.6

5.2 20 4.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

4.1 -2

3.9 -4.5

3.8 -4.7

3.8 0.7

3.6 -5.8

3.5 -2.6

3.2 -8.9

3 -6.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.8 4.6

7.5 9.8

8.2 9.9

8.9 8.4

9.2 3.1

8.8 -3.6

8.6 -3.1

8.4 -1.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

19.6 4.7

21.1 7.4

22.6 7.3

22.7 0.6

21.8 -4.3

20.3 -6.6

19.5 -4.3

19.8 1.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

26.8 6.2

26.7 -0.4

26 -2.9

27.5 5.9

28.7 4.2

28.2 -1.5

28.1 -0.3

28.3 0.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

16.6 6.1

17.4 4.7

17.3 -0.9

17.7 2.5

17.7 -0.1

17.6 -0.4

17.2 -2.1

16.7 -3.4

7.9 2.6

7.9 0.9

7.8 -1.6

7.8 0

7.8 -0.4

7.3 -6.3

6.8 -6.3

6.9 1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.9 -0.5

6.7 -2.2

6.7 -0.5

6.7 0.4

6.6 -2.5

6.5 -0.8

6.5 0.3

6.6 1.3

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

21.6 0

21.8 0.9

22.2 2

22.5 1.4

22.7 1.1

22.3 -1.7

22.2 -0.6

22 -0.9

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

9936.1

10369.3

11049

11469.1

11475.1

11315.9

11038.4

11187.1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

434.4 1.4

440.5 1.4

445.4 1.1

449.4 0.9

450.8 0.3

453.3 0.6

455.4 0.5

457.5 0.5

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

191.1 2.1

193.8 1.4

201.5 4

206 2.2

209.4 1.7

208.9 -0.2

210.5 0.8

214.1 1.7

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

114

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

4.8

4.6

3.7

3.1

3.7

5.8

9.6

11.2

4424 3556 868

4711 3629 1082

3764 3284 480

2770 2322 448

2464 1780 684

1317 1125 192

1081 1029 53

1911 1746 165

Continued


P e n s ac o l a – F erry P a s s – B re n t

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

16.5 4.7 7 9.5

17.3 5 7.4 9.9

18.1 4.5 7.8 10.3

19.1 5.5 8.1 10.9

20.1 5.4 8.5 11.6

21.2 5.4 8.9 12.3

22.3 5.3 9.2 13.1

23.4 5 9.6 13.9

24.6 5.2 9.9 14.7

25.9 5.1 10.3 15.6

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

13.1 3.1

13.5 3.1

13.9 2.5

14.4 3.5

14.9 3.4

15.4 3.4

15.9 3.2

16.3 2.9

16.8 3.2

17.4 3.2

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

35.9 28.6

37.5 29.3

38.8 29.8

40.5 30.5

42.2 31.2

44 31.9

45.9 32.6

47.7 33.2

49.6 33.9

51.6 34.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

41.1 2.4

42 2.1

43.1 2.6

44.3 2.8

45.5 2.9

46.9 3

48.3 3

49.8 3

51.3 3

52.7 2.9

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

156.4 -0.1

161.3 3.1

166 2.9

169.1 1.9

171.6 1.5

174.1 1.4

176 1.1

177.5 0.8

179 0.8

180.6 0.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

5.4 3.5

5.6 4.2

5.7 2.6

5.8 0.7

5.7 -0.6

5.7 -1.2

5.6 -1.2

5.5 -1.1

5.5 -1.3

5.4 -1.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

151.1 -0.2

155.7 3.1

160.3 2.9

163.4 1.9

165.9 1.5

168.4 1.5

170.4 1.2

172 0.9

173.5 0.9

175.2 1

9.6 -3

10.2 5.6

11 7.9

11.5 4.6

11.7 2.1

12 2.6

12.3 2.3

12.6 2

12.7 0.8

12.8 0.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

29.9 0.2

30.7 2.7

31.5 2.9

32 1.6

32.3 1

32.4 0.2

32.4 -0.1

32.4 0

32.4 0.1

32.4 -0.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.2 20 4.6

5.5 20.4 4.8

5.6 20.8 5

5.8 21 5.1

5.9 21.1 5.3

5.9 21 5.4

6 20.8 5.4

6 20.7 5.5

6.1 20.7 5.5

6.1 20.6 5.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3 2.7

3.1 2.1

3.2 2.4

3.2 1.4

3.2 1

3.3 1.1

3.3 1.3

3.4 0.8

3.4 0.7

3.4 0.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.5 0.8

8.7 2.7

8.8 0.9

8.8 0.1

8.8 0.3

8.9 0.3

8.9 0.2

8.9 -0.1

8.9 0.1

8.9 -0.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

21.1 6.7

21.8 3.6

23.1 5.7

24.3 5.3

25.6 5.5

27.1 5.7

28.3 4.6

29.3 3.3

30.3 3.6

31.4 3.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

28.8 1.6

29.3 2

29.6 1

30 1.4

30.5 1.5

31.1 2

31.6 1.5

32 1.3

32.3 1.1

32.7 1.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

15.4 -7.5

17.1 11.2

18.1 5.6

18.3 1

18.2 -0.2

18.2 -0.3

18.1 -0.4

18 -0.5

18 -0.2

17.8 -0.7

6.9 0.8

7 0.2

7 0.1

7 0.4

7 0.2

7 0

7 -0.1

7 -0.3

7 -0.2

7 -0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.1 -7.3

6 -1.8

6 -1.1

5.9 -0.7

5.9 -0.4

5.9 -0.1

5.9 0.1

5.9 0.1

5.9 0.2

6.2 4

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

21.7 -1.5

21.8 0.4

22 1.3

22.3 1.1

22.5 0.8

22.5 0.3

22.6 0.4

22.7 0.2

22.7 0.1

22.7 -0.1

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

11328

11720.7

12086.4

12461.6

12823.6

13201.5

13544.4

13876.3

14229.9

14574.1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

458.9 0.3

462.1 0.7

466.5 1

471.5 1.1

476.4 1

481.4 1

486.4 1

491.5 1

496.6 1

501.6 1

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

211.7 -1.1

209.3 -1.1

209.7 0.2

210.9 0.6

213 1

214.9 0.9

216.7 0.8

218.6 0.8

220.3 0.8

221.9 0.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%)

10.7

9.2

8

7.2

6.8

6.4

6

5.7

5.4

5

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2108 1976 132

2466 2304 162

2715 2496 218

2738 2495 243

2762 2489 273

2818 2522 296

2821 2515 306

2808 2501 307

2842 2519 323

2859 2527 332

Continued

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

115


P e n s ac o l a – F erry P a s s – B re n t

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

27.1 4.8 10.7 16.4

28.4 4.6 11.1 17.3

29.7 4.4 11.6 18.1

30.9 4.3 12 19

32.3 4.4 12.4 19.9

33.7 4.4 12.9 20.8

35.2 4.5 13.4 21.8

36.7 4.3 13.9 22.8

38.3 4.3 14.5 23.8

39.9 4.2 15.1 24.9

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

17.9 3

18.4 2.8

18.9 2.6

19.3 2.4

19.8 2.4

20.3 2.6

20.8 2.6

21.3 2.4

21.8 2.4

22.3 2.3

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

53.6 35.3

55.5 35.9

57.4 36.5

59.3 37

61.3 37.6

63.5 38.2

65.8 38.9

68 39.5

70.4 40.1

72.8 40.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

54.3 2.9

55.8 2.9

57.4 2.9

59.1 2.8

60.8 2.9

62.6 3

64.6 3.1

66.5 3.1

68.6 3.1

70.7 3.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

182.2 0.9

184.3 1.2

186.2 1

187.5 0.7

189.1 0.9

190.9 1

192.6 0.9

194.3 0.9

196.2 1

198.2 1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

5.3 -2.2

5.1 -2.5

5 -2.7

4.9 -2.4

4.8 -2.2

4.7 -2

4.6 -1.8

4.5 -1.9

4.4 -1.7

4.4 -1.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

176.9 1

179.2 1.3

181.2 1.1

182.6 0.8

184.4 1

186.3 1

188 0.9

189.8 0.9

191.7 1

193.9 1.1

13 1.4

13.2 1.7

13.4 1.7

13.6 1.3

13.8 1.4

14 1.9

14.2 1.5

14.4 1.1

14.5 1

14.7 1.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

32.4 0.2

32.7 0.9

33 0.8

33.2 0.6

33.4 0.5

33.5 0.4

33.7 0.4

33.8 0.4

33.9 0.4

34 0.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

6.2 20.6 5.5

6.4 20.6 5.6

6.5 20.7 5.7

6.6 20.7 5.8

6.6 20.7 5.9

6.7 20.8 5.9

6.8 20.8 6

6.8 20.9 6

6.9 20.9 6

7 20.9 6

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.4 0.6

3.4 1

3.5 0.9

3.5 0.6

3.5 0.6

3.5 1

3.6 1.2

3.6 1.3

3.7 1.5

3.7 1.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.9 -0.1

8.9 0.7

9 0.6

9 0.6

9.1 0.9

9.2 0.8

9.3 0.8

9.4 0.9

9.4 0.9

9.5 0.9

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

32.8 4.4

34.2 4.2

35.3 3.3

36.1 2.4

37.2 3.1

38.4 3.2

39.5 2.7

40.6 2.8

41.9 3.2

43.2 3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

32.9 0.6

33.1 0.6

33.3 0.6

33.5 0.5

33.7 0.5

33.8 0.5

34 0.6

34.2 0.6

34.5 0.7

34.7 0.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

17.8 -0.4

17.8 0.1

17.8 0

17.7 -0.3

17.7 -0.3

17.7 -0.1

17.7 0.1

17.7 0.1

17.8 0.2

17.7 -0.1

7 0.5

7.1 0.9

7.1 0.7

7.2 0.7

7.2 0.9

7.3 0.5

7.3 0.3

7.3 0.3

7.3 0.3

7.4 0.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.1 -1.6

6.1 0.5

6.1 0.1

6.1 0.1

6.1 0

6.1 0

6.1 0

6.1 0

6.1 0

6.5 6

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

22.7 -0.1

22.7 0

22.7 0

22.7 -0.1

22.7 0

22.7 -0.1

22.6 -0.1

22.6 -0.1

22.6 -0.1

22.6 -0.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

14947.2

15357

15759.6

16148.7

16565.2

16971.7

17358.5

17747.9

18151.4

18582.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

506.6 1

511.5 1

516.4 1

521.3 1

526.2 0.9

530.9 0.9

535.5 0.9

540 0.8

544.3 0.8

548.5 0.8

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

223.1 0.6

224.3 0.5

225.5 0.5

226.8 0.6

228.2 0.6

230 0.8

231.9 0.8

233.8 0.8

235.8 0.8

237.7 0.8

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.9

2788 2475 313

2810 2492 319

2810 2498 312

2833 2525 308

2883 2578 305

2910 2604 306

2860 2555 305

2780 2478 302

2731 2435 296

2747 2455 291

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

116

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

Continued


P e n s ac o l a – F erry P a s s – B re n t

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

41.6 4.2 15.7 25.9

43.4 4.4 16.4 27.1

45.3 4.2 17 28.2

47.1 4 17.6 29.5

49 4 18.2 30.7

50.9 4 18.8 32.1

52.9 3.9 19.5 33.4

54.9 3.8 20.1 34.8

56.9 3.7 20.8 36.2

59.1 3.8 21.5 37.6

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

22.8 2.3

23.4 2.4

23.9 2.2

24.4 2.1

24.9 2

25.4 2

25.9 1.9

26.3 1.8

26.8 1.7

27.3 1.8

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

75.3 41.3

78.1 42

80.8 42.7

83.5 43.3

86.3 43.9

89.2 44.5

92.1 45.1

95.2 45.7

98.2 46.2

101.4 46.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

72.9 3.1

75.2 3.2

77.5 3

79.8 3

82.1 2.9

84.5 2.9

87 2.9

89.5 2.9

92 2.8

94.7 2.9

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

200.2 1

202.8 1.3

204.7 0.9

206 0.6

207 0.5

208.3 0.6

209.6 0.6

210.5 0.4

211.4 0.4

212.4 0.5

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.3 -1.3

4.3 -1.4

4.2 -1.6

4.1 -1.5

4.1 -1.6

4 -1.5

3.9 -1.5

3.9 -1.4

3.8 -1

3.8 -0.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

195.9 1

198.6 1.4

200.6 1

201.9 0.7

203 0.5

204.3 0.7

205.6 0.6

206.6 0.5

207.5 0.5

208.6 0.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

15 1.9

15.3 2

15.6 1.9

15.7 1

15.9 0.8

16 0.9

16.2 1.1

16.3 0.9

16.4 0.9

16.5 0.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

34 0.1

34 0

34 0

33.9 -0.2

33.9 -0.3

33.8 -0.2

33.7 -0.2

33.6 -0.2

33.6 -0.2

33.5 -0.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

7 20.9 6

7 20.9 6

7 21 5.9

6.9 21 5.9

6.9 21 5.8

6.9 21 5.8

6.8 21.1 5.7

6.8 21.1 5.7

6.7 21.2 5.6

6.7 21.2 5.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.8 1.8

3.9 2.4

4 1.8

4 1

4 0.8

4.1 1

4.1 1.3

4.2 1.3

4.2 1.2

4.3 0.5

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

9.6 1.1

9.7 1.1

9.8 1

9.9 0.9

10 0.8

10.1 0.9

10.2 0.7

10.2 0.7

10.3 0.6

10.3 0.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

44.7 3.6

46.6 4.2

47.9 2.8

48.9 2.1

49.8 1.9

50.9 2.2

52 2.1

52.8 1.5

53.6 1.5

54.6 1.9

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

34.9 0.7

35.2 0.9

35.4 0.6

35.5 0.3

35.5 0.1

35.6 0.2

35.7 0.1

35.8 0.3

35.9 0.2

35.9 0.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

17.8 0.3

17.9 0.4

17.9 0.3

18 0.2

18 0.3

18 0.2

18.1 0.1

18.1 -0.1

18.1 0.3

18 -0.4

7.4 0.2

7.4 0.2

7.4 0.3

7.4 0.3

7.5 0.2

7.5 0.3

7.5 0

7.5 -0.1

7.5 -0.1

7.4 -0.3

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.2 -4.3

6.2 0

6.2 0

6.2 0

6.2 0

6.2 0

6.2 0

6.2 -0.1

6.2 -0.1

6.4 4.4

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

22.5 -0.2

22.5 -0.2

22.4 -0.3

22.3 -0.3

22.2 -0.4

22.1 -0.4

22.1 -0.4

21.9 -0.5

21.8 -0.7

21.6 -0.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

19045.3

19518.9

19978.7

20426

20870.7

21348

21848.3

22334.9

22854

23413.8

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

552.6 0.7

556.5 0.7

560.3 0.7

563.9 0.6

567.3 0.6

570.7 0.6

573.9 0.6

576.9 0.5

579.8 0.5

582.8 0.5

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

239.5 0.8

241.4 0.8

243.2 0.8

245 0.7

246.8 0.7

248.6 0.7

250.3 0.7

252 0.7

253.8 0.7

255.4 0.6

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.9

4.9

5

5

5

5

5

5.1

5.1

5.1

2731 2445 287

2659 2373 285

2634 2354 280

2652 2377 275

2671 2403 269

2675 2417 259

2646 2397 249

2611 2369 241

2595 2360 235

2574 2347 227

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

117


T a l l aha s s ee

P r o fi l e s

Out l o o k Summarie s

The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla counties. It is located between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State University and Florida A&M University.

The Tallahassee MSA is expected to show minimal growth in the economic indicators relative to other metro areas in the state. The area should see personal income growth averaging 4.6 percent each year, one of the lowest in the state. Per capita income levels should average 28.6. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.8 percent, and the average annual wage level will be 42.1. Population growth will be at 0.9 percent, and the Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 11,434.08 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to be 0.8 percent each year, the lowest in the state. The unemployment rate, however, will average 7.7 percent, the second lowest in the state. Professional and Business Services will be the fastest growing sector in Tallahassee, averaging 3.6 percent annually. Manufacturing and Education and Health Services sectors follow with growth rates of 3.2 percent and 1.8 percent respectively. The State and Local Government, Information and Federal Government sectors are expected to decline with average annual growth rates of -0.2 percent, -0.8 percent and -3.9 percent respectively.

Quick Facts:

• Metro population estimate of 300,413 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Gadsden County population estimate of 47,474 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Jefferson County population estimate of 14,010 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Leon County population estimate of 265,714 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Wakulla County population estimate of 32,815 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • An MSA civilian labor force of 194,701 in April 2010 (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• An unemployment rate of 7.9% as of April 2010, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 15,410 unemployed people for the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• State Government (all departments) – 46,800 employees • Florida State University – 8,784 employees • Tallahassee Memorial Healthcare – 3,480 employees

• Florida A&M University – 3,468 employees • City of Tallahassee – 2,633 employees

• Federal Government (all departments) – 2,100 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 2,000 employees • Walmart Stores, Inc. – 1,900 employees • Leon County – 1522 employees

• Tallahassee Community College – 1090 employees Source: Tallahassee Economic Development Council and Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation (CES) 118

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

M etr o Ne w s Summarie s Syn-Tech wins $5.7 million Air Force contract

• Syn-Tech Systems Inc., a Tallahassee-based manufacturer, has been awarded a $5.7 million Air Force contract to build ammunition systems for the A-10 Thunderbolt Aircraft over the next two years.

• Due to this and several other projects, including increased demand for the company’s Fuelmaster management system, Syn-Tech anticipates hiring more personnel. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, April 23, 2010


T a l l aha s s ee

Researchers receive climate study grant

New airport opens this weekend

• The grant will be used to research methods used for forecasting climate perils in the Southeast United States.

• Officials at Tallahassee Regional Airport are not expecting the new airport to affect their service, as Tallahassee Regional primarily attracts business fliers.

• The Southeast Climate Consortium, which includes researchers at Florida State University, was granted $2.5 million for research by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

• The Consortium is led by FSU and is comprised of several other Florida universities, as well as others in the Southeastern United States. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, May 7, 2010

EDC proposes downtown project for Recovery Zone financing

• A $9.8 million development in downtown Tallahassee has been proposed, and will use the Recovery Zone Facility Bonds that Tallahassee and Leon County were given as part of a federal stimulus package. • The project was proposed by Hunter & Harp Holdings, LLC and will cost a total of $14.5 million.

• The development will have retail space on the ground floor and office space above. A parking garage with about 90 spaces is also proposed as part of the project. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, May 11, 2010

• Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport located in Panama City began flights on May 23rd, and is the first new international commercial airport built in the past 15 years.

• The airport will offer direct daily flights to Atlanta, Baltimore, Houston, Memphis, Nashville, and Orlando, with services provided by Delta and Southwest Airlines. • Lee Daniel, executive director of Visit Tallahassee, hopes the new airport will bring more international tourism to the Tallahassee region. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, May 22, 2010

No layoffs as Florida A&M University passes budget

• Trustees at Florida A&M University passed the budget for 2010-2011, which declined by $3.1 million from last year but did not include any layoffs.

• Federal stimulus money maintained the budget for this year, but the university will have to find a new way to pay for the salaries of 100 employees, including 26 faculty, which the stimulus money currently supports. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, June 2, 2010

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

119


T a l l aha s s ee Tallahassee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.5

Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate (percent)

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 FL Unemployment Rate Tallahassee Unemployment Rate

1

25000.0

3

230.0 220.0 210.0 200.0 190.0 180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0

(Thousands)

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Tallahassee Payroll Employment

Tallahassee Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0% 4.0%

15000.0

2.0% 0.0%

10000.0

120

2.5

8.0%

20000.0

5000.0

2

Tallahassee Payroll Employment

Tallahassee Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $)

1.5

-2.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Gross Metro Product Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

-4.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Personal Income


T a l l aha s s ee

Quarterly Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

12.6 6.1 6.9 5.6 10.1 4.5 34.5 27.9 40.6 3.5

12.7 5.9 7 5.7 10.2 4.6 34.8 28 40.9 3.3

12.8 6.6 7 5.8 10.3 5.2 35.2 28.2 41.2 3.4

12.9 4.2 7.1 5.9 10.3 2.6 35.4 28.3 41.5 2.9

13.1 4.2 7.2 5.9 10.4 2.5 35.7 28.4 41.7 2.8

13.2 4.2 7.2 6 10.5 2.4 36 28.5 42 2.5

13.4 4.2 7.3 6.1 10.5 2.4 36.4 28.7 42.2 2.4

13.5 4.6 7.4 6.2 10.6 2.8 36.7 28.8 42.5 2.5

13.7 4.8 7.5 6.2 10.7 2.9 37.1 28.9 42.8 2.5

13.9 4.8 7.6 6.3 10.8 2.9 37.4 29 43.1 2.7

14 4.6 7.7 6.3 10.8 2.6 37.7 29.1 43.4 2.8

14.2 4.5 7.8 6.4 10.9 2.5 38 29.2 43.7 3

14.3 4.5 7.9 6.5 11 2.5 38.3 29.3 44.1 3.1

14.5 4.5 8 6.5 11 2.6 38.6 29.5 44.4 3.1

170.9 0.7 4 4.2 166.9 0.6 6.4 -1.3 22.3 -0.1 3.3 17.2 1.8 3.1 2.9 7.4 1.1 19.6 7.1 20.5 2.1 16 -0.6 10.2 0.8 1.7 -5.7 59.6 -1.1

171.6 1.1 4.1 4.5 167.5 1 6.5 0.9 22.4 0.6 3.3 17.3 1.8 3.1 2.6 7.4 2.9 19.9 6.1 20.7 2.5 15.9 -0.4 10.3 0.9 1.7 -2.7 59.6 -0.6

172.2 1.3 4.1 5.3 168.1 1.2 6.6 3.1 22.5 1.3 3.4 17.4 1.8 3.2 2.2 7.5 3.2 20 4.4 20.7 2.4 16 0.1 10.3 0.5 1.7 -2.3 59.6 -0.3

173 1.5 4.2 5.5 168.9 1.5 6.7 4.7 22.7 2.4 3.4 17.5 1.9 3.2 1.8 7.5 2.8 20.1 3.5 20.8 2.2 16.2 0.8 10.3 0.3 1.7 -1.6 59.8 0.1

174 1.8 4.2 5.4 169.7 1.7 6.8 5.4 22.9 2.8 3.4 17.6 1.9 3.2 2 7.5 2.4 20.3 3.3 20.9 1.7 16.3 1.8 10.3 0.4 1.7 -1.1 59.9 0.5

174.9 1.9 4.3 4.9 170.7 1.9 6.9 6.1 23.1 3 3.5 17.7 1.9 3.2 2.2 7.5 1.7 20.6 3.5 20.9 1.4 16.4 2.6 10.3 0.4 1.7 -0.8 60.1 0.8

175.8 2.1 4.3 4.3 171.5 2.1 7 7.1 23.2 3 3.5 17.7 1.9 3.2 2.4 7.6 1.1 20.9 4.5 20.9 1.2 16.4 2.5 10.3 0.5 1.7 -0.6 60.2 1

176.8 2.2 4.3 3.9 172.5 2.1 7.2 7.4 23.4 2.9 3.5 17.8 1.9 3.3 2.6 7.6 0.7 21.2 5.5 21 1 16.5 1.9 10.3 0.4 1.7 -0.7 60.4 1.1

177.6 2.1 4.4 3.4 173.3 2.1 7.3 7.4 23.5 2.7 3.5 17.9 2 3.3 2.5 7.6 0.5 21.4 5.7 21 0.8 16.5 1.3 10.3 0.2 1.7 -0.8 60.6 1.3

178.4 2 4.4 2.8 174 1.9 7.4 7.2 23.6 2.3 3.6 18 2 3.3 2.3 7.6 0.3 21.8 5.8 21.1 0.6 16.5 0.8 10.3 0 1.7 -0.8 60.8 1.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

169.8 -0.6 3.8 -0.9 166 -0.6 6.5 -6.9 22.3 -0.8 3.3 17.2 1.7 3 -8.1 7.3 -1.7 18.4 -0.4 20.1 3.6 16.1 1.1 10.2 2.2 1.8 -9.1 60.3 -1.3

169.7 -0.6 3.9 2.2 165.8 -0.7 6.4 -5.4 22.3 -0.6 3.2 17.2 1.7 3.1 -5.9 7.2 -2.7 18.7 1.2 20.2 1.1 16 -0.5 10.2 1.9 1.8 -10.2 60 -1

170 -0.2 3.9 3.9 166.1 -0.3 6.4 -4.9 22.3 0.1 3.2 17.2 1.8 3.1 -0.7 7.2 -1.5 19.1 5 20.2 1.7 16 -0.3 10.2 1.8 1.8 -10.9 59.8 -1.9

170.4 0 4 4 166.4 -0.1 6.4 -4.9 22.2 -0.6 3.3 17.1 1.8 3.1 2.2 7.3 -0.1 19.4 6.8 20.4 1.6 16 -0.4 10.2 0.7 1.7 -12.3 59.7 -1.8

11032.5 11082.2 11131.1 11193.4 11279.6 11362.8 11438.3 11530.4 11623.6 11717.2 11783.4 11865.5 363.9 364.6 365.2 365.6 366.2 366.9 367.7 368.7 369.7 370.7 371.7 372.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 1 1 1.1 1.1 194.9 193.7 192.6 191.4 190.3 189.2 188.2 187.2 186.1 186.4 186.7 187 1 0.2 -1.6 -2.4 -2.4 -2.3 -2.3 -2.2 -2.2 -1.5 -0.8 -0.1 9 9 8.7 8.5 8.2 7.9 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.3 1047 1106 1301 1496 1666 1777 1905 2034 2203 2277 2319 2408 855 892 1015 1200 1379 1505 1640 1778 1903 1926 1928 1987 192 214 286 297 287 272 266 256 301 351 391 421

11945 12015.9 373.8 374.9 1.1 1.1 187.2 187.5 0.6 0.6 6.1 6 2471 2483 2017 2002 454 482

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

121


T a l l aha s s ee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

9 3.7 5.6 3.4

9.8 8.5 5.9 3.9

10.6 7.8 6.2 4.3

11.2 6.3 6.6 4.7

11.8 4.8 6.9 4.9

12 2.1 6.9 5.1

11.9 -1.1 6.8 5.1

12.4 4.6 6.9 5.5

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

8.6 1.6

9.1 5.7

9.5 4.6

9.8 3.5

10 2

9.9 -1.2

9.8 -1.3

10.1 2.9

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

27.1 25.8

29.1 26.9

30.9 27.7

32.3 28.2

33.3 28.3

33.6 27.7

33 27.1

34.2 27.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

33.9 2.3

35.3 4.2

36.2 2.5

37.2 2.8

38.4 3.2

39 1.5

39.3 0.8

40.4 2.9

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

164.7 0.8

167.1 1.5

171.8 2.8

176 2.4

178 1.1

176.3 -0.9

171.7 -2.6

170 -1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.1 -0.6

4.2 2

4.2 0.8

4.5 4.9

4.6 2.8

4.3 -7.1

3.8 -9.5

3.8 -0.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

160.6 0.8

162.9 1.5

167.5 2.8

171.5 2.4

173.4 1.1

172.1 -0.8

167.8 -2.5

166.2 -1

7.7 7.1

8.3 8.5

9.4 12.4

9.8 4.8

9.5 -3

8.6 -9.7

7.1 -17.3

6.6 -7.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

23.5 0.5

24.6 4.4

25.4 3.4

25.6 0.9

25.3 -1.2

24.2 -4.5

22.6 -6.6

22.3 -1.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3 18.5 2

3.3 19.1 2.1

3.6 19.3 2.5

3.7 19.4 2.4

3.8 19.1 2.4

3.6 18.5 2.1

3.4 17.5 1.8

3.3 17.2 1.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.4 -4.2

3.6 5.1

3.7 2.1

3.5 -5.2

3.6 2.9

3.6 0.5

3.4 -5.9

3.1 -9.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.7 3

7.6 -0.7

8 4.8

8.3 4.4

8.2 -1.9

7.9 -2.9

7.4 -6.3

7.3 -2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

17.2 -0.1

17.2 -0.3

18.2 5.9

19.1 5.1

18.9 -1.2

19.1 1.3

18.6 -3

18.4 -1.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

17.1 1.1

16.8 -1.7

17.2 2.6

17.8 3.3

18.5 3.8

19.2 4

19.6 1.7

20 2.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

13.6 1.6

14.4 6.1

15.6 8.3

16.2 3.3

16.7 3.6

16.5 -1.5

16.2 -1.7

16.1 -0.9

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.8 -3.7

8 2.8

8 -0.6

8.5 5.8

9 5.9

9.7 8.8

10 2.7

10.1 1.1

2 3

1.9 -3.3

1.9 0

1.9 -1.7

1.9 0

2 3.9

2 1.8

1.9 -5.5

60.6 0.8

60.5 -0.2

60.2 -0.5

60.8 1.2

61.8 1.6

61.2 -1

61 -0.3

60.5 -0.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

9369.2

9753.9

10379.5

10714

10828.3

10875.1

10730.6

11014.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

332.9 1.5

337.4 1.3

342.3 1.5

348.1 1.7

353.8 1.6

357.5 1

360.4 0.8

363.5 0.9

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

173.4 0.5

172.9 -0.3

178 3

182.3 2.4

186.6 2.4

190.8 2.3

193.4 1.4

195.1 0.9

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

122

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

4.2

3.8

3.2

2.8

3.2

4.6

7.4

9.1

3820 2422 1397

3381 2131 1250

3701 2766 935

3097 2535 562

2767 2171 596

1240 961 279

803 669 134

978 813 165

Continued


T a l l aha s s ee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

13 4.8 7.1 5.9

13.6 4.6 7.4 6.2

14.2 4.5 7.8 6.4

15 5.6 8.2 6.8

15.8 5.4 8.6 7.3

16.7 5.4 9 7.7

17.6 5.2 9.4 8.2

18.4 4.9 9.8 8.6

19.4 5 10.2 9.1

20.3 5 10.6 9.7

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

10.4 3.2

10.7 2.8

10.9 2.6

11.3 3.6

11.7 3.4

12.1 3.4

12.5 3.2

12.8 2.8

13.2 3.1

13.6 3

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

35.6 28.3

36.9 28.9

38.1 29.3

39.8 30

41.5 30.6

43.2 31.3

45 32

46.7 32.5

48.6 33.2

50.4 33.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

41.6 2.9

42.6 2.5

43.9 3

45.3 3.3

46.8 3.3

48.4 3.4

50.1 3.4

51.8 3.4

53.5 3.4

55.3 3.2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

170.7 0.4

173.5 1.6

177.2 2.1

180 1.6

182.6 1.4

185.1 1.3

187.1 1.1

188.7 0.8

190.3 0.9

191.8 0.8

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4 4.2

4.2 5.3

4.3 3.6

4.4 1.5

4.4 0.2

4.4 -0.4

4.4 -0.4

4.4 -0.3

4.4 -0.5

4.3 -0.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

166.7 0.3

169.3 1.6

172.8 2.1

175.6 1.6

178.2 1.5

180.7 1.4

182.7 1.1

184.3 0.9

185.9 0.9

187.5 0.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

6.4 -2.6

6.7 4.8

7.2 7.3

7.5 4.4

7.7 2

7.9 2.6

8.1 2.3

8.2 2

8.3 0.7

8.3 0.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

22.3 0

22.8 2.4

23.4 2.7

23.8 1.4

24 0.9

24 0.1

23.9 -0.2

23.9 0.1

24 0.2

24 0.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.3 17.2 1.8

3.4 17.5 1.9

3.5 17.9 2

3.6 18 2

3.7 18.1 2.1

3.7 18 2.1

3.7 17.9 2.2

3.7 17.8 2.2

3.8 17.8 2.2

3.8 17.8 2.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.1 1.7

3.2 2.1

3.3 2.4

3.3 1.4

3.3 1.1

3.4 1.2

3.4 1.4

3.5 0.9

3.5 0.9

3.5 0.5

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.3 0.6

7.5 2.5

7.6 0.7

7.6 0

7.6 0.2

7.6 0.1

7.6 0

7.6 -0.3

7.6 0

7.5 -0.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

19.5 6.2

20.2 3.7

21.3 5.4

22.4 5.1

23.6 5.4

24.9 5.6

26.1 4.5

26.9 3.2

27.8 3.5

28.8 3.4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

20.4 2

20.8 1.9

21 0.9

21.3 1.3

21.7 1.7

22.2 2.3

22.5 1.7

22.9 1.6

23.2 1.4

23.6 1.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

16 -0.5

16.2 1.3

16.5 1.6

16.5 0.1

16.4 -0.3

16.4 -0.3

16.3 -0.4

16.2 -0.5

16.2 -0.2

16.1 -0.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

10.2 1

10.3 0.4

10.3 0.3

10.4 0.6

10.4 0.5

10.4 0.2

10.4 0.1

10.4 -0.1

10.4 0

10.4 0

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.7 -8.1

1.7 -1.4

1.7 -0.7

1.7 -0.3

1.7 0.1

1.7 0.4

1.7 0.5

1.7 0.6

1.7 0.7

1.9 7.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

59.7 -1.3

59.8 0.3

60.5 1.2

61.2 1.1

61.8 1

62.2 0.7

62.6 0.7

62.9 0.5

63.2 0.4

63.3 0.2

11241.8

11577.4

11902.5

12255.5

12607.4

12973

13303.1

13624.7

13970.7

14314.9

366 0.7

369.2 0.9

373.2 1.1

377.6 1.2

381.9 1.1

386.2 1.1

390.4 1.1

394.6 1.1

398.9 1.1

403.2 1.1

190.9 -2.2

187 -2.1

187.1 0.1

187.8 0.4

189.1 0.7

190.3 0.6

191.3 0.5

192.2 0.5

193.3 0.6

194.9 0.8

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

8.3

7.2

6.2

5.6

5.5

5.2

4.9

4.7

4.5

4.2

1560 1275 285

2105 1811 293

2420 1983 437

2483 1949 534

2550 1910 641

2627 1901 726

2629 1858 771

2602 1815 787

2600 1785 815

2582 1747 835

Continued

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

123


T a l l aha s s ee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

21.3 4.8 11.1 10.2

22.3 4.6 11.6 10.7

23.3 4.4 12 11.2

24.3 4.2 12.5 11.8

25.3 4.4 13 12.3

26.4 4.4 13.6 12.9

27.6 4.4 14.1 13.5

28.8 4.2 14.7 14

30 4.2 15.4 14.6

31.2 4.2 16 15.2

14 3

14.4 2.8

14.8 2.5

15.1 2.3

15.5 2.4

15.9 2.5

16.3 2.5

16.7 2.3

17.1 2.3

17.5 2.3

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

52.3 34.5

54.1 35

55.9 35.5

57.7 36

59.5 36.5

61.5 37

63.6 37.6

65.6 38

67.7 38.5

69.8 39

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

57.1 3.3

59 3.3

60.9 3.2

62.8 3.2

64.9 3.3

67.1 3.4

69.4 3.4

71.7 3.4

74.2 3.4

76.7 3.4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

193.4 0.8

195.4 1

197.1 0.9

198.3 0.6

199.9 0.8

201.6 0.8

203.1 0.8

204.7 0.8

206.4 0.8

208.1 0.8

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.3 -1.4

4.2 -2.1

4.1 -2.3

4 -1.9

4 -1.5

3.9 -1.2

3.9 -1

3.8 -1.1

3.8 -0.8

3.8 -0.7

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

189.2 0.9

191.3 1.1

193 0.9

194.3 0.7

196 0.9

197.7 0.9

199.3 0.8

200.9 0.8

202.6 0.9

204.3 0.8

8.5 1.4

8.6 1.6

8.7 1.5

8.8 1.1

8.9 1.2

9.1 1.9

9.2 1.4

9.3 1

9.4 0.9

9.5 1.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

24.1 0.2

24.3 0.9

24.5 0.8

24.6 0.6

24.7 0.6

24.9 0.5

25 0.5

25.1 0.6

25.2 0.5

25.3 0.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.9 17.8 2.2

4 17.8 2.3

4 17.9 2.3

4.1 17.9 2.4

4.1 18 2.4

4.2 18 2.5

4.2 18.1 2.5

4.3 18.1 2.5

4.3 18.2 2.5

4.3 18.2 2.6

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.5 0.7

3.6 0.9

3.6 0.9

3.6 0.6

3.6 0.7

3.7 1

3.7 1.1

3.8 1.3

3.8 1.5

3.9 1.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.5 -0.2

7.6 0.4

7.6 0.4

7.6 0.4

7.7 0.6

7.7 0.6

7.8 0.6

7.8 0.7

7.9 0.7

7.9 0.7

30 4.3

31.2 4

32.2 3.1

32.9 2.1

33.8 2.8

34.8 3

35.7 2.5

36.6 2.6

37.7 3

38.8 2.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

23.8 0.8

24 0.8

24.1 0.7

24.3 0.7

24.4 0.6

24.6 0.6

24.8 0.7

24.9 0.7

25.1 0.8

25.3 0.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

16.1 -0.3

16.1 0.1

16 -0.1

16 -0.2

16 -0.1

16 0.1

16 0.2

16.1 0.2

16.1 0.3

16.1 0

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

10.5 0.7

10.6 1

10.7 0.8

10.8 0.8

10.9 0.9

10.9 0.5

11 0.3

11 0.3

11 0.3

11.1 0.3

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.8 -4.5

1.8 0.7

1.8 0.5

1.8 0.5

1.8 0.6

1.8 0.6

1.9 0.6

1.9 0.6

1.9 0.6

2 7.3

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

63.4 0.2

63.6 0.2

63.7 0.3

63.8 0.2

64 0.3

64.1 0.2

64.3 0.2

64.3 0.1

64.4 0.1

64.4 0

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

14670.6

15063.1

15444.2

15814.2

16217.8

16611.2

16983.8

17357.7

17744.9

18158.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

407.5 1.1

411.8 1.1

416.3 1.1

420.7 1.1

425.1 1.1

429.6 1.1

434.1 1

438.6 1

443.1 1

447.5 1

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

196.1 0.6

197.2 0.6

198.4 0.6

199.5 0.6

200.8 0.6

202.5 0.8

204.2 0.8

205.9 0.9

207.7 0.8

209.4 0.8

4

4

3.9

3.9

4

4

4

4

4

4.1

2532 1680 852

2528 1656 873

2513 1628 885

2487 1615 872

2480 1616 864

2459 1595 864

2381 1521 860

2284 1428 855

2205 1362 843

2173 1338 835

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

124

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

Continued


T a l l aha s s ee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

32.6 4.2 16.7 15.9

34 4.4 17.5 16.5

35.4 4.1 18.2 17.2

36.8 4 18.9 17.9

38.2 3.9 19.6 18.6

39.7 3.9 20.3 19.4

41.2 3.8 21.1 20.1

42.7 3.7 21.9 20.9

44.2 3.6 22.6 21.6

45.9 3.7 23.5 22.4

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

17.9 2.3

18.3 2.4

18.7 2.2

19.1 2

19.4 1.9

19.8 1.9

20.2 1.8

20.5 1.7

20.8 1.6

21.2 1.6

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

72.1 39.6

74.6 40.1

76.9 40.6

79.3 41.1

81.6 41.5

84 41.9

86.5 42.3

88.9 42.6

91.3 43

93.9 43.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

79.4 3.5

82.1 3.5

84.9 3.4

87.7 3.3

90.5 3.2

93.4 3.2

96.4 3.2

99.5 3.2

102.7 3.2

106 3.3

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

209.9 0.9

212.3 1.1

213.9 0.8

215 0.5

216 0.4

217.1 0.5

218.2 0.5

218.9 0.3

219.8 0.4

220.6 0.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

3.7 -0.5

3.7 -0.6

3.7 -0.7

3.7 -0.7

3.6 -0.8

3.6 -0.7

3.6 -0.6

3.6 -0.5

3.6 -0.1

3.6 0.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

206.2 0.9

208.5 1.1

210.2 0.8

211.4 0.5

212.3 0.5

213.5 0.6

214.6 0.5

215.4 0.4

216.2 0.4

217 0.4

9.7 1.8

9.8 1.9

10 1.8

10.1 0.9

10.2 0.7

10.3 0.8

10.4 1

10.4 0.8

10.5 0.8

10.6 0.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

25.4 0.3

25.4 0.2

25.5 0.2

25.5 0.1

25.5 0

25.5 0.1

25.5 0.1

25.6 0.1

25.6 0.1

25.6 0

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.4 18.2 2.6

4.3 18.3 2.6

4.3 18.3 2.6

4.3 18.4 2.6

4.3 18.4 2.5

4.3 18.4 2.5

4.2 18.5 2.5

4.2 18.5 2.5

4.2 18.6 2.5

4.2 18.6 2.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.9 1.8

4 2.3

4.1 1.7

4.2 1

4.2 0.9

4.2 1.1

4.3 1.3

4.3 1.3

4.4 1.2

4.4 0.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8 0.9

8.1 0.9

8.1 0.8

8.2 0.6

8.2 0.6

8.3 0.7

8.3 0.5

8.4 0.5

8.4 0.4

8.4 -0.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

40.1 3.3

41.6 3.9

42.7 2.6

43.5 1.9

44.2 1.7

45.1 2

45.9 1.9

46.6 1.3

47.2 1.3

48 1.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

25.5 0.8

25.8 1

25.9 0.7

26 0.4

26.1 0.2

26.2 0.3

26.3 0.3

26.4 0.4

26.4 0.3

26.5 0.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

16.2 0.4

16.3 0.5

16.3 0.4

16.4 0.2

16.4 0.3

16.4 0.2

16.5 0.2

16.5 0

16.5 0.2

16.5 -0.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

11.1 0.2

11.1 0.2

11.1 0.3

11.2 0.2

11.2 0.1

11.2 0.2

11.2 0

11.2 -0.2

11.2 -0.2

11.1 -0.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.9 -5.1

1.9 0.6

1.9 0.6

1.9 0.6

2 0.6

2 0.6

2 0.6

2 0.5

2 0.5

2.1 5.9

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

64.5 0.1

64.5 0

64.5 0

64.4 -0.1

64.4 -0.1

64.3 -0.1

64.2 -0.1

64.1 -0.2

64 -0.2

63.9 -0.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

18594.1

19043.6

19478.8

19901.9

20322.6

20774.2

21246.2

21704.2

22198.2

22736.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

451.7 0.9

456 0.9

460.2 0.9

464.3 0.9

468.4 0.9

472.4 0.9

476.5 0.9

480.5 0.8

484.5 0.8

488.5 0.8

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

211.1 0.8

212.8 0.8

214.5 0.8

216.1 0.8

217.7 0.8

219.3 0.7

220.9 0.7

222.5 0.7

224.1 0.7

225.6 0.7

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.3

2120 1292 828

2033 1205 827

1967 1153 814

1930 1127 803

1889 1105 784

1833 1078 755

1761 1035 725

1696 990 706

1649 954 695

1600 919 682

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

125


T ampa – St . P eter s burg – C l ear w ater

P r o fi l e s The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is comprised of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas counties. Located centrally on the west coast of Florida, this region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge Docks, Ybor City, Bush Gardens, the University of South Florida, and the University of Tampa. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Devil Rays also call this region home. Quick Facts:

• MSA population estimate of 2,747,272 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hernando County population estimate of 171,233 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hillsborough County population estimate of 1,195,317 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Pasco County population estimate of 471,709 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Pinellas County population estimate of 909,013 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• A civilian labor force of 1,310,966 in April 2010 for the entire region (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 11.9% as of April 2010, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 156,311 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• Hillsborough County School District – 25,487 employees • Verizon Communications – 14,000 employees • MacDill Air Force Base – 12,000 employees

• University of South Florida – 11,607 employees • Hillsborough County Government – 10,886 employees

• Tampa International Airport – 7,760 employees • James A Haley Veterans Hospital – 5,900 employees • St. Joseph’s Hospital – 5,242 employees 126

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

• JP Morgan Chase – 5,237 employees

• Verizon Information Technologies – 5,000 employees Source: Committee of One Hundred Research

Out l o o k Summarie s The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to be 4.5 percent on average each year, and the per capita income level will average 31.1 annually. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.9 percent, one of the highest in the state. The average annual wage level will be 47.7. Population growth will average 0.9 percent, and Tampa is forecasted to have the second highest Gross Metro Product, averaging a level of 93,122.25 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to be 1.3 percent annually. The unemployment rate is expected to average 10.7 percent. The fastest growing sector in the Tampa area is Professional and Business Services, growing 2.6 percent each year. The Manufacturing and Education and Health Services sectors follow with average annual growth rates of 2.2 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively. The Federal Government sector is the only sector that will experience a decline, with an annual growth rate of -1.3 percent.

M etr o Ne w s Summarie s RiverHawk lands $70 million military contract

• Tampa-based RiverHawk Fast Sea Frames, LLC secured a $70.2 million contract with the Iraqi military for two offshore support vessels for the Iraqi Navy. • The company will detail, design, and construct the vessels. • Work, which will be done at the company’s Houma, Louisiana facility, is expected to be completed by December of next year.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, March 8, 2010


T ampa – St . P eter s burg – C l ear w ater

Penny tax to support light rail will go on November ballot

• Hillsborough County Board of County Commissioners voted in favor of adding a 1-cent transportation tax to the November ballot.

• The sales tax would fund both transit and nontransit projects, including light rail, roadways, bus service expansion, and intersections, with 75% of the revenue going to transit and 25% going to other projects.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, May 14, 2010

Tampa Bay rallies around FIFA bid

• Tampa was one of 18 U.S. cities that the USA Bid Committee submitted to host the 2018 or 2022 Fédération Internationale de Football Association World Cup soccer games.

St. Joseph’s Women’s Hospital launches $75 million expansion

• St. Joseph’s Women’s Hospital broke ground on a $75 million, five-story, 125,000-square-foot expansion. The project will include a new 64-bed neonatal intensive care unit (NICU), services including obstetrics, gynecology, and surgery, and the Hinks and Elaine Shimberg Breast Center. • The NICU will provide 24 additional private suites for women’s care patients, intended to improve safety and enhance patients’ experiences. The Breast Center is expected to be a leader in breast imaging procedures with the utilization of new technology.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, May 19, 2010

• Australia, England, and Russia also submitted bids to FIFA.

• The submissions initiated a seven-month review process that involves site visits from FIFA committee members to the bidding nations. The committee will select the host country on December 2nd.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, May 14, 2010

St. Petersburg ranked as top arts destination

• AmericanStyle magazine ranked St. Petersburg the nation’s top arts destination. This is the ninth year in a row that the city has been recognized for its arts offerings, but it is the first year the city has been in the top 10. • St. Petersburg has six world-class museums, intimate arts venues, and a downtown gallery district, and is in the process of opening several new venues.

• The city expects the ranking to further strengthen St. Petersburg’s arts reputation locally, nationally, and internationally, increasing opportunities for tourism.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, May 17, 2010 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

127


T ampa – St . P eter s burg – C l ear w ater Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

Florida & Tampa Unemployment Rate (percent)

14.0% 12.0%

0.6

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Tampa Payroll Employment 1600.0

(Thousands)

1500.0

1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 FL Unemployment Rate Tampa Unemployment Rate

1000.0

Tampa Real Gross Metro Product 250000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

Tampa Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

4.0%

150000.0

2.0% 0.0%

100000.0 50000.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Tampa Payroll Employment

6.0%

200000.0

128

0.8

1400.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.4

-2.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Gross Metro Product Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

-4.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 Real Personal Income


T ampa – St . P eter s burg – C l ear w ater

Quarterly Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

103.6 4.5 52 51.6 83.7 3 37.4 30.2 45.9 3.3

104.8 4.8 52.5 52.3 84.4 3.6 37.8 30.4 46.3 3.3

106 5.3 53.1 53 85 3.9 38.1 30.6 46.7 3.4

106.9 4.4 53.6 53.4 85.3 2.8 38.4 30.6 47 3.1

108.1 4.3 54.2 53.9 85.9 2.6 38.8 30.8 47.3 2.9

109.5 4.5 54.9 54.6 86.6 2.7 39.2 31 47.5 2.6

110.9 4.6 55.7 55.3 87.4 2.8 39.6 31.2 47.9 2.5

112.4 5.2 56.4 56.1 88.2 3.3 40 31.4 48.2 2.5

113.9 5.3 57.1 56.8 88.9 3.5 40.4 31.6 48.5 2.6

115.3 5.3 58 57.4 89.6 3.4 40.8 31.7 48.8 2.7

116.6 5.1 58.8 57.8 90.1 3.1 41.2 31.8 49.3 2.9

118.2 5.1 59.7 58.5 90.9 3.1 41.6 32 49.6 3.1

119.7 5.1 60.5 59.2 91.7 3.1 42 32.1 50 3.2

121.2 5.1 61.3 59.9 92.4 3.2 42.3 32.3 50.4 3.2

1135 1.3 61.8 4.5 1073.2 1.1 52.4 0.5 208.4 0.6 46.1 136.2 26.1 27.2 4.3 90.9 0.7 202.2 3.9 180.2 2.2 114.1 -0.8 44.3 1 21.7 -5.6 131.9 -0.7

1142.9 1.9 62.6 4.6 1080.3 1.8 53.1 2.9 210 1.3 46.6 137.2 26.4 27.4 3.7 91.8 2.6 204.7 4.1 181.3 2.5 114 -0.6 44.4 0.9 21.6 -2.5 132 -0.1

1150.9 2.4 63.5 5.3 1087.4 2.2 54.1 5.4 211.7 2.2 47.1 138.1 26.8 27.6 3 92.5 3.2 206.3 3.7 182.1 2.7 114.7 0.2 44.4 0.5 21.6 -1.7 132.4 0.3

1158.6 2.7 64.3 5.3 1094.3 2.5 55.4 7.3 213.5 2.9 47.5 138.9 27.1 27.7 2.2 92.9 3.1 207.1 3.4 183.4 2.6 115.7 1.1 44.4 0.3 21.5 -1.2 132.9 0.8

1166.7 2.8 65 5.2 1101.7 2.7 56.6 8.1 215 3.2 47.9 139.7 27.4 27.8 2 93.4 2.8 208.5 3.1 184.4 2.3 116.6 2.2 44.5 0.3 21.5 -0.9 133.4 1.2

1175 2.8 65.6 4.8 1109.3 2.7 58 9.1 216.8 3.2 48.3 140.4 27.6 27.9 1.8 93.9 2.3 210.1 2.6 185.3 2.2 117.5 3.1 44.5 0.3 21.4 -0.8 134 1.5

1182.7 2.8 66.2 4.3 1116.5 2.7 59.4 9.8 218.3 3.1 48.7 141 27.9 28.1 1.7 94.1 1.8 212 2.7 185.8 2 118.2 3.1 44.6 0.3 21.4 -0.7 134.6 1.7

1190.4 2.7 66.8 3.9 1123.6 2.7 61 10.1 219.7 2.9 49 141.9 28 28.2 1.9 94.2 1.4 213.7 3.2 186.8 1.9 118.8 2.7 44.5 0.3 21.4 -0.6 135.3 1.8

1197.2 2.6 67.2 3.4 1130.1 2.6 62.4 10.1 220.9 2.7 49.3 142.6 28.2 28.3 1.8 94.5 1.2 215.6 3.4 187.6 1.7 119.1 2.2 44.5 0.2 21.4 -0.5 135.9 1.8

1203.3 2.4 67.5 2.8 1135.8 2.4 63.6 9.7 221.6 2.2 49.5 143.1 28.4 28.3 1.6 94.7 0.9 217.5 3.5 188.1 1.5 119.5 1.7 44.6 0.1 21.4 -0.4 136.4 1.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1120.2 -0.7 59.1 -1.9 1061.1 -0.7 52.1 -11 207.2 -0.5 44.8 135.9 25.3 26.1 -5.1 90.2 -1.4 194.5 0.8 176.4 2.3 115 -2.2 43.9 -0.5 23 1.6 132.8 0.1

1121.2 0.1 59.9 2.6 1061.4 0 51.6 -9.1 207.3 1.2 44.7 136 25.3 26.4 -3 89.5 -1.7 196.6 2.6 176.9 1.3 114.7 -1.4 44 -0.1 22.2 -0.8 132.2 -0.5

1124.1 0.4 60.3 4.2 1063.8 0.2 51.3 -5.7 207.2 0.5 44.8 136 25.4 26.8 1.4 89.6 -1.8 198.9 2.9 177.4 1.5 114.5 -0.5 44.2 1.3 21.9 -2.2 132 -1.5

1128.5 0.5 61 4.1 1067.4 0.3 51.6 -3.4 207.4 0.1 45.4 135.9 25.7 27.1 4 90.1 -0.6 200.3 3.6 178.7 1.7 114.4 -0.5 44.3 1.2 21.8 -12.8 131.8 -1.5

89250.6 89728.9 2771.2 2775.8 0.7 0.7 1326.7 1325.3 1.7 0.9 13 12.9 7425 8430 5869 6216 1556 2214

90136 2780.2 0.7 1324.1 0.1 12.4 11382 7152 4229

90683 91478.9 92322.8 93177.4 94064.9 94940.9 95806.6 96455.9 97191.5 97927.7 98592.3 2785.1 2790.3 2796.2 2802.4 2808.8 2816.1 2823.9 2832.8 2842.5 2852.7 2863.2 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1322.6 1322.8 1324 1325.5 1328.4 1330.7 1334 1338.2 1342.2 1346.7 1351.8 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1 1.2 1.3 12 11.5 11 10.6 10.1 9.5 9.2 8.8 8.4 8.2 8 13631 15204 16196 17627 18676 19908 20481 20885 21704 22240 22345 8887 10644 12288 13350 14422 15592 16020 16319 17049 17434 17457 4744 4561 3909 4277 4254 4316 4461 4567 4655 4806 4889

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

129


T ampa – St . P eter s burg – C l ear w ater

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

78.9 5 42.9 35.9

84.9 7.6 46 38.9

91.4 7.7 49.1 42.3

98.5 7.7 52.3 46.2

101.2 2.8 54 47.2

102.4 1.2 53.6 48.8

99.7 -2.7 51.1 48.6

102.9 3.2 51.8 51.1

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

74.8 2.9

78.5 4.9

82 4.6

86 4.9

86.1 0.1

84.3 -2.1

81.9 -2.9

83.2 1.6

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

31.2 29.6

32.8 30.3

34.6 31

36.6 32

37.3 31.7

37.5 30.9

36.2 29.8

37.2 30.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

37.2 4.1

38.5 3.5

39.8 3.3

41.5 4.3

42.9 3.4

44 2.7

44.5 1.1

45.7 2.8

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1141.8 0.1

1183.3 3.6

1222.9 3.4

1248.4 2.1

1247.4 -0.1

1204.9 -3.4

1135.4 -5.8

1120.8 -1.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

76 -5

76.6 0.8

77.3 0.9

78.2 1.2

75.6 -3.3

71.2 -5.8

61.7 -13.4

58.9 -4.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1065.8 0.5

1106.7 3.8

1145.6 3.5

1170.2 2.1

1171.8 0.1

1133.7 -3.3

1073.7 -5.3

1061.9 -1.1

72 3.5

79.1 9.8

88.3 11.6

93.9 6.3

87.3 -7

75.9 -13.1

60 -21

52.9 -11.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

221.2 -2.8

226.1 2.3

233.5 3.2

235.7 1

234.1 -0.7

226.5 -3.3

209.4 -7.5

207 -1.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

50.4 139.8 31

50.9 143.3 31.9

52.8 149 31.7

54 151 30.7

54.3 150.8 29

52.9 145.8 27.8

47.9 135.6 25.8

44.9 135.9 25.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

33.8 -3.6

32.1 -5

31.9 -0.6

31.8 -0.2

31.8 -0.1

30.3 -4.8

27.8 -8.2

26.3 -5.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

93.9 1.5

95.5 1.7

99.4 4.1

102.7 3.2

101.8 -0.9

97.1 -4.6

92.3 -4.9

90.4 -2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

183.7 2.4

202.1 10

213.2 5.5

222 4.2

221.9 -0.1

207.6 -6.4

194.1 -6.5

194.4 0.2

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

148.5 3.2

153.2 3.1

155.6 1.6

159.3 2.4

166.5 4.5

170.9 2.7

172.3 0.8

176 2.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

118.7 0.4

122.3 3

126.3 3.2

128.5 1.7

128.8 0.2

124.8 -3.1

118.5 -5

114.9 -3.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

47.9 -0.2

49.2 2.7

49.4 0.5

47.1 -4.6

47.8 1.5

47.6 -0.5

44.2 -7

43.8 -0.9

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

19.5 2.8

19.9 2.2

20.8 4.3

21 1.2

21.1 0.5

21.9 3.9

22.6 3.1

23.1 2.5

126.6 -0.8

127.2 0.4

127.2 0

128.1 0.7

130.6 2

131.1 0.4

132.5 1.1

133.2 0.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

78975.9

83214.1

88917

92241

92043.3

90756

87787.6

89294.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2530.6 1.7

2585.9 2.2

2643.5 2.2

2686.7 1.6

2713.1 1

2732.1 0.7

2749.7 0.6

2768.8 0.7

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

1226.3 0.3

1254.9 2.3

1248.3 -0.5

1272.9 2

1293.6 1.6

1307.5 1.1

1309.4 0.1

1325.6 1.2

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

130

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

5.3

4.5

3.9

3.4

4.2

6.6

11

13

27278 20002 7275

27278 22057 5221

32730 27577 5153

22907 19477 3429

11559 8530 3029

8926 5266 3660

6067 4131 1937

8431 5677 2754

Continued


T ampa – St . P eter s burg – C l ear w ater

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

107.6 4.6 53.9 53.7

113.2 5.1 56.8 56.4

118.9 5.1 60.1 58.8

126.3 6.2 63.3 63

133.5 5.7 66.4 67.1

140.8 5.5 69.6 71.2

148.5 5.4 72.8 75.7

156.3 5.3 76 80.3

164.9 5.5 79.4 85.5

174 5.5 82.9 91.1

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

85.7 3

88.5 3.3

91.3 3.1

95.1 4.2

98.6 3.7

102 3.5

105.5 3.4

108.8 3.2

112.7 3.5

116.7 3.6

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

38.6 30.7

40.2 31.5

41.8 32.1

43.7 32.9

45.4 33.5

47.1 34.1

48.8 34.7

50.5 35.2

52.4 35.8

54.4 36.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

47.1 3

48.3 2.6

49.8 3.1

51.5 3.3

53.2 3.4

55 3.3

56.8 3.3

58.7 3.3

60.7 3.4

62.6 3.2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1132.6 1.1

1162.8 2.7

1193.4 2.6

1216.7 2

1235.6 1.6

1254.1 1.5

1270 1.3

1283.6 1.1

1297.5 1.1

1311.4 1.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

61.4 4.4

64.6 5.2

66.9 3.6

67.8 1.3

67.8 0

67.3 -0.7

66.8 -0.7

66.4 -0.6

65.9 -0.8

65.5 -0.7

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1071.2 0.9

1098.2 2.5

1126.5 2.6

1148.9 2

1167.8 1.6

1186.8 1.6

1203.1 1.4

1217.2 1.2

1231.6 1.2

1245.9 1.2

52.1 -1.5

56 7.5

61.6 9.9

65.6 6.5

68 3.7

70.7 3.9

73.2 3.6

75.6 3.3

77.2 2.1

78.9 2.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

208.3 0.6

214.3 2.9

220.1 2.7

223.8 1.7

226.9 1.4

228.3 0.6

229.3 0.4

230.6 0.6

231.8 0.5

232.8 0.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

45.7 136.3 25.9

47.7 139.3 27.2

49.1 142.2 28.1

50.2 144.1 28.8

51.1 145.1 29.5

51.8 144.9 30.2

52.4 144.5 30.8

53.1 144.5 31.2

53.8 144.9 31.3

54.6 145.2 31.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

27.1 3.4

27.7 2.2

28.2 1.7

28.4 0.8

28.7 1

29.2 1.4

29.7 1.8

30.1 1.5

30.5 1.3

30.7 0.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

90.6 0.2

93.2 2.9

94.4 1.3

94.8 0.5

95.4 0.6

96 0.6

96.5 0.5

96.8 0.3

97.3 0.6

97.6 0.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

201.5 3.7

208 3.2

214.7 3.2

221.6 3.2

227.5 2.7

234.1 2.9

239.9 2.5

244.4 1.9

249.5 2.1

254.2 1.9

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

179.4 1.9

183.8 2.4

187.1 1.8

190.5 1.8

194.2 1.9

199.2 2.6

202.9 1.9

206.3 1.7

210 1.8

213.8 1.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

114.2 -0.6

116.1 1.7

118.9 2.4

120.2 1

120.7 0.4

121.2 0.4

121.6 0.3

121.7 0.1

122.1 0.4

122 -0.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

44.3 1.1

44.5 0.4

44.6 0.2

44.9 0.7

45.2 0.7

45.4 0.5

45.6 0.5

45.7 0.2

45.8 0.2

45.9 0.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

21.8 -6

21.5 -1.2

21.4 -0.5

21.4 -0.1

21.4 0.3

21.6 0.6

21.7 0.7

21.9 0.8

22.1 0.8

23.6 7

131.9 -1

133.2 0.9

135.5 1.8

137.7 1.6

139.7 1.5

141.3 1.1

142.8 1.1

144.1 0.9

145.4 0.9

146.3 0.6

91155.1

94497.4

97541.9

100852

104088

107460

110664

113917

117343

120729

2788 0.7

2812.8 0.9

2847.8 1.2

2892.2 1.6

2941 1.7

2991 1.7

3043.1 1.7

3095.7 1.7

3145.4 1.6

3194.8 1.6

1323.4 -0.2

1329.6 0.5

1344.7 1.1

1362.3 1.3

1384.6 1.6

1408.3 1.7

1431.4 1.6

1454.6 1.6

1477.8 1.6

1498.3 1.4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

11.7

9.8

8.4

7.4

6.9

6.3

5.8

5.4

5.1

4.7

14103 9743 4361

19173 14846 4327

21794 17065 4729

22493 17487 5006

22920 17633 5287

24214 18358 5856

25207 18983 6225

25652 19196 6456

26051 19208 6843

26351 19286 7065

Continued

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

131


T ampa – St . P eter s burg – C l ear w ater

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

183 5.2 86.4 96.6

192.1 5 90.3 101.8

201.3 4.8 94.3 107.1

210.8 4.7 98.3 112.5

220.9 4.8 102.6 118.3

231.6 4.9 107.3 124.4

242.9 4.9 112.1 130.8

254.3 4.7 117 137.2

266.1 4.7 122.4 143.7

278.4 4.6 127.9 150.5

120.5 3.3

124.4 3.2

128 2.9

131.6 2.8

135.3 2.9

139.3 3

143.5 3

147.5 2.8

151.5 2.7

155.6 2.7

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

56.4 37.2

58.3 37.8

60.2 38.3

62.1 38.8

64.1 39.3

66.3 39.9

68.5 40.5

70.7 41

72.9 41.5

75.2 42

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

64.7 3.3

66.8 3.3

69 3.3

71.3 3.3

73.7 3.4

76.2 3.5

78.9 3.5

81.6 3.5

84.5 3.5

87.4 3.5

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1323.9 1

1340.4 1.2

1355.2 1.1

1367.4 0.9

1381.2 1

1395.4 1

1409 1

1422.6 1

1437.2 1

1452 1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

64.4 -1.7

63 -2

61.6 -2.2

60.4 -2

59.4 -1.7

58.6 -1.5

57.8 -1.4

56.9 -1.4

56.3 -1.2

55.7 -1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1259.6 1.1

1277.3 1.4

1293.5 1.3

1307 1

1321.8 1.1

1336.8 1.1

1351.2 1.1

1365.7 1.1

1380.9 1.1

1396.3 1.1

81.1 2.7

83.4 2.9

85.9 2.9

88 2.5

90.2 2.6

92.8 2.9

95.2 2.5

97.2 2.1

99.2 2.1

101.4 2.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

234.4 0.7

237.5 1.4

240.4 1.2

242.9 1

245.2 0.9

247.1 0.8

249.3 0.9

251.4 0.9

253.4 0.8

254.8 0.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

55.7 145.4 31.6

57 146.3 32.4

58.3 147.2 33

59.3 148.1 33.6

60.2 148.9 34.2

61 149.6 34.7

61.8 150.5 35

62.6 151.6 35.2

63.4 152.3 35.5

64.2 152.8 35.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

31 1

31.5 1.4

31.9 1.4

32.3 1.1

32.7 1.2

33.2 1.6

33.7 1.7

34.4 1.9

35.1 2.1

35.7 1.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

98.1 0.4

99.1 1

100.1 1

101.1 1

102.4 1.3

103.8 1.3

105.1 1.3

106.6 1.4

108 1.4

109.5 1.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

260.2 2.4

266.2 2.3

271 1.8

274.3 1.2

278.6 1.5

282.9 1.6

286.4 1.2

290 1.3

294.1 1.4

298 1.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

216.2 1.1

218.4 1

220.7 1.1

222.9 1

224.9 0.9

226.9 0.9

229.1 0.9

231.4 1

233.8 1

236 1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

122.2 0.2

123 0.6

123.6 0.5

124 0.3

124.5 0.4

125.2 0.6

126.1 0.8

127.1 0.8

128.2 0.9

128.9 0.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

46.3 0.9

46.8 1.2

47.3 1

47.8 1

48.3 1.1

48.7 0.8

49 0.5

49.2 0.5

49.5 0.5

49.7 0.6

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

22.8 -3.6

23 1.1

23.2 0.8

23.4 0.8

23.6 0.8

23.8 0.8

23.9 0.8

24.1 0.8

24.3 0.8

26.1 7.5

147.3 0.7

148.3 0.7

149.4 0.7

150.3 0.6

151.4 0.7

152.5 0.7

153.4 0.6

154.4 0.6

155.3 0.6

156.1 0.5

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

124144

127926

131719

135529

139569

143501

147315

151156

155098

159330

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

3243.9 1.5

3293.3 1.5

3343.2 1.5

3393.5 1.5

3444.2 1.5

3495.2 1.5

3546.7 1.5

3598.7 1.5

3650.9 1.5

3703.2 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

1517.3 1.3

1536.1 1.2

1555.2 1.2

1574.8 1.3

1595.6 1.3

1619.3 1.5

1644.1 1.5

1669.4 1.5

1695 1.5

1720.8 1.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

132

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.4

26204 19135 7069

26695 19421 7274

27021 19699 7322

27272 20057 7215

27723 20588 7135

27962 20858 7104

27605 20520 7085

27029 19985 7043

26630 19695 6935

26758 19883 6874

Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2010

Continued


T ampa – St . P eter s burg – C l ear w ater

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

July 2010 Forecast

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

291.3 4.6 133.8 157.5

305.1 4.7 140.1 165

319.1 4.6 146.4 172.7

333.2 4.4 152.5 180.8

347.6 4.3 158.5 189.1

362.9 4.4 165.1 197.9

378.4 4.3 171.9 206.5

394.3 4.2 178.7 215.5

410.6 4.1 185.8 224.7

427.5 4.1 193.3 234.2

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

159.8 2.7

164.3 2.8

168.6 2.6

172.7 2.5

176.8 2.4

181 2.4

185.1 2.3

189.2 2.2

193.2 2.1

197.2 2.1

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

77.6 42.6

80.1 43.1

82.6 43.7

85.1 44.1

87.6 44.6

90.3 45

92.9 45.5

95.6 45.9

98.2 46.2

101 46.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

90.5 3.5

93.7 3.5

96.9 3.5

100.2 3.4

103.5 3.3

107 3.4

110.7 3.4

114.4 3.4

118.2 3.3

122.3 3.4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1467 1

1484.7 1.2

1499.2 1

1510.4 0.7

1520.3 0.7

1531.3 0.7

1541.8 0.7

1551.3 0.6

1561.3 0.6

1570.1 0.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

55.2 -0.8

54.8 -0.9

54.2 -1.1

53.6 -1

53 -1.1

52.5 -1

52 -0.9

51.6 -0.8

51.3 -0.5

51.2 -0.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1411.7 1.1

1429.9 1.3

1445.1 1.1

1456.7 0.8

1467.2 0.7

1478.9 0.8

1489.9 0.7

1499.7 0.7

1510 0.7

1518.9 0.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

104.5 3

107.7 3.1

110.8 3

113.2 2.1

115.3 1.9

117.7 2

120.2 2.2

122.6 2

125.1 2

127.1 1.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

256.1 0.5

257.1 0.4

258.2 0.4

258.8 0.2

259.2 0.2

259.8 0.2

260.2 0.2

260.7 0.2

261.3 0.2

261.6 0.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

64.6 153.7 35.5

64.6 154.7 35.4

64.6 155.8 35.4

64.5 156.6 35.3

64.3 157.3 35.1

64.2 158.1 34.9

63.9 159 34.7

63.7 160 34.4

63.5 161 34.1

63.5 161.6 33.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

36.6 2.4

37.7 3

38.6 2.4

39.2 1.7

39.8 1.5

40.5 1.7

41.3 2

42.2 2

43 1.9

43.5 1.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

111.3 1.6

113.1 1.6

114.7 1.5

116.2 1.3

117.7 1.3

119.3 1.4

120.8 1.2

122.2 1.2

123.6 1.1

124.3 0.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

302.9 1.6

308.3 1.8

312 1.2

314.7 0.9

317.1 0.8

319.8 0.9

322.4 0.8

324 0.5

325.6 0.5

327.3 0.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

238.6 1.1

241.6 1.3

243.9 0.9

245.6 0.7

246.9 0.5

248.5 0.6

249.8 0.5

251.4 0.6

252.9 0.6

254.3 0.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

130.2 1

131.6 1.1

132.9 1

134 0.8

135.2 0.9

136.3 0.8

137.3 0.8

138.1 0.6

139.3 0.8

139.6 0.2

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

49.9 0.4

50.2 0.4

50.4 0.5

50.6 0.5

50.8 0.4

51.1 0.5

51.2 0.2

51.3 0.2

51.5 0.3

51.5 0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

24.9 -4.6

25.1 0.8

25.3 0.8

25.5 0.8

25.7 0.8

25.9 0.8

26.1 0.8

26.3 0.8

26.5 0.7

28.1 6

156.9 0.5

157.6 0.5

158.3 0.4

158.9 0.4

159.5 0.4

160 0.3

160.5 0.3

160.9 0.2

161.3 0.3

161.6 0.2

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

163769

168283

172846

177410

182000

186864

191951

197033

202497

208284

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

3755.6 1.4

3808.2 1.4

3860.9 1.4

3913.6 1.4

3966.5 1.4

4019.5 1.3

4072.7 1.3

4126.1 1.3

4179.8 1.3

4233.9 1.3

Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago

1746.8 1.5

1772.9 1.5

1799.1 1.5

1825.4 1.5

1851.9 1.5

1878.6 1.4

1905.4 1.4

1932.4 1.4

1960 1.4

1986.5 1.4

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.6

4.6

26659 19841 6818

26198 19362 6836

26041 19280 6761

26212 19509 6703

26357 19763 6594

26323 19925 6399

26043 19843 6200

25766 19691 6075

25701 19701 6001

25598 19690 5908

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

133


In Appeciation

The UCF College of Business Administration would like to thank Alan C. Charron, ‘84, for his generous gift to the Institute for Economic Competitiveness. His support enables the Institute to publish this forecast and will help fund future activities and research. Charron graduated in 1984 with a degree in finance. He is president of Real Property Specialists, Inc., located in Orlando, Florida. Founded in 1992, Real Property Specialists, Inc., is a fullservice brokerage company that has built a reputation of providing highly personalized service while being responsive and flexible to its clients' individual needs. They offer a range of commercial real estate services in the Central Florida area including brokerage, appraisal, development, property management and tenant representation. Real Property Specialists, Inc., has set a new standard of excellence in client service by providing these key advantages over the competition:

Responsiveness. You work directly with a decision

maker who has the flexibility to immediately attend to your needs.

Consistency. We are a unified firm employing team-

members who are committed to the success of our clients. We pride ourselves on our ability to maintain a dedicated, professional staff that is able to build long-term, comfortable and prosperous relationships with our clients.

Accountability. At Real Property Specialists, our client is the real "Boss." We are accountable to no one other than the client. No company policy interferes with our ability to serve the individual needs of each client. Experience. The staff at Real Property Specialists is

highly qualified, with most associates having more than a decade of experience in the industry. Our personal portfolio of shopping centers gives us first-hand knowledge of what is important when leasing, managing or selling a property.

Appraisers • Brokers • Consultants 6700 Conroy-Windermere Road, Suite 230 | Orlando, FL 32835 407.291.9000 | www.realpropertyspecialists.com


Director, Institute for Economic Competitiveness. Ph.D., Pennsylvania State University 1996; M.A., Pennsylvania State University 1994; B.S., Allegheny College 1989.

Sea n M . S n ait h , P h . D .

We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness:

Sean Snaith, Ph.D., is the Director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness within the College of Business Administration at the University of Central Florida and is a widely recognized economist in the field of business and economic forecasting. As an award-winning forecaster, researcher, and professor, Snaith is always interested in the application of academic expertise to the solution of real world problems. Snaith has served as a consultant for a client list ranging from local and regional municipalities to multi-national corporations, including Compaq, Dell and IBM. He has held teaching positions at Pennsylvania State University, American University in Cairo, University of North Dakota and University of the Pacific. Snaith frequently appears in national and regional media and is sought after as a speaker. He has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, the New York Times, and the Chicago Tribune and has appeared on CNBC and Fox Business Channel. Known for his engaging presentations, one business editor wrote, “Snaith (has) an uncanny knack of making economics not only understandable but interesting.” Snaith is a member of several economic organizations and national economic forecasting panels including USA Today’s Survey of Top Economists, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, Bloomberg, Reuters and the Livingston Survey. In 2007 he was named California’s most accurate forecaster by the Western Blue Chip Consensus Forecast, besting UCLA, Wells Fargo and other esteemed forecasting groups. Snaith holds a B.S. in Economics from Allegheny College and an M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from Pennsylvania State University. Snaith was recently named by Bloomberg News as one of the nation’s most accurate forecasters and was one of just two academic economists making the list which was released in the December 2008 issue of Bloomberg Markets. For more information Sean Snaith, Director Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida P.O. Box 161400 Orlando, FL 32816 PH: 407.823.1451 FAX: 407.823.1454 E-MAIL: ssnaith@bus.ucf.edu www.iec.ucf.edu


U n i v e r s it y o f C e n t r al F l o r ida College of Business Administration Institute for Economic Competitiveness P. O . B o x 1 6 1 4 0 0 , O r l a n d o , F l o r i d a 3 2 8 1 6 PH 407.823.1453

FAX 407.823.1454

w w w. i e c . u c f . e d u


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