Florida and Metro Forecast June 2007

Florida & Metro Forecast 2007-2036

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

Published June 2007

Message From D ea n T h o ma s L . K e o n

A b o ut U n i v e r s it y o f C e n t r al F l o r ida ( U C F ) T h e Un i ve r s i t y o f C e n t r a l Fl o r i d a i s a public, multi-campus, metropolitan r e s e a r c h u n i v e r s i t y, d e d i c a t e d t o serving its surrounding communities with their diverse and expanding populations, technological corridors, and international partners. The mission of the university is to offer high-quality undergraduate and graduate education, student development, and continuing education; to conduct research and creative activities; and to provide services that enhance the intellectual, cultural, environmental, and economic development of the metropolitan region, address national and international issues in key areas, establish UCF as a major presence, and contribute to the global c o m m u n i t y.

A b o ut t h e C o lle g e o f B u s i n e s s A dmi n i s t r ati o n

As we head into the summer months, our thoughts often drift towards family vacations, trips to the beach and outdoor barbecues. But this summer, things may really heat up and could continue to do so into the future. This comprehensive forecast addresses many critical issues facing consumers and includes a 30-year forecast horizon. This issue is a valuable tool for longterm planners in both the private and public sectors. As such, we will continue to produce these long-range forecasts the second quarter of each year.

This publication is built upon the foundation of our nationally recognized U.S. Forecast which also is produced each quarter by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness. These quarterly forecasts have proven to be very successful. Information from previous editions has appeared in many national publications.

Dr. Sean Snaith uses a clever and unique format to present his research. His success will soon be crossing over to broadcast as well. In the fall, Sean will begin hosting his own television show, Money Talks, and will address many of the same popular subjects included in his printed publications.

The College of Business Administration a d v a n c e s t h e u n i v e r s i t y ’s m i s s i o n and goals in providing intellectual leadership through research, teaching,

Please take a moment to look through this forecast. I think you will enjoy the latest edition.

and service. The college is striving to enhance graduate programs, while maintaining the strong undergraduate base. The college delivers research and quality business education programs at the undergraduate, masters, doctoral, and executive levels to citizens of the state of Florida and to select clientele n a t i o n a l l y a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y.

Have a great summer!

n Thomas L . Keo Sincerely,

Thomas L. Keon Dean

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

F lo r i da F o r eca s t 2007-2036 June 2007

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright Š 2007 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved.

Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Barbie Barontini, Editor Jeff Slanker, Researcher Amanda Silvestri, Researcher Jennifer Reid, Researcher Nathan Goldschlag, Researcher Trina Banerji, Marketing Intern

This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitiveness’ judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.

TABLE OF CONTENTS Florida Summary................................................... 6-9 Definitions.............................................................. 10

Florida Forecast Charts...................................... 28-36 Florida News Summaries....................................... 37 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach.......... 39-46 Gainesville......................................................... 47-54 Jacksonville....................................................... 55-62 Lakeland............................................................ 63-70 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach............... 71-78 Naples-Marco Island......................................... 79-86 Ocala................................................................. 87-94 Orlando-Kissimmee........................................ 95-102 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville..................... 103-110 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent.......................... 111-118 Tallahassee.................................................... 119-126 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater................ 127-134

Tab l e o f c o n t e n t s

Florida Forecast Tables...................................... 12-26

F l o r i d a Summa r y

U . S . E c o n o m y S t umb l e s S U V Ow n e r s G r umb l e H o u s i n g S t a r t s Tumb l e P r o pe r t y Ta x Rumb l e F o r eca s t e r s H umb l e First quarter real GDP growth, revised down from a slow 1.3% to a paltry 0.6%, was confirmation that the housing slowdown had a firm grip on the U.S. economy. It was also clear that the hole the economy had to climb out of was going to be a little deeper than some forecasters had anticipated. However, this unexpectedly deeper hole still was not close to being the grave in which the current expansion would find its final resting place. The additional foreclosure activity caused by sub-prime mortgages and shady lending practices added to an already bloated inventory of new and existing homes. The first quarter’s GDP numbers changed the outlook for the U.S. economy, but not dramatically.

Two years ago, most forecasters prognosticated that an end to the current expansion would be the final act in the housing drama. While I wouldn’t exactly label it a happy ending, it appears that in the aggregate, it will not be the housing-centric tragedy portrayed by some.

I know I often repeat myself, but gasoline prices feel like deja vu all over again. Gasoline prices headed south in Florida earlier in the year, and at one point, they were testing the $2.00 floor in some locations.

But quicker than a NASA countdown, they were back on their way up, this time revisiting previous

highs ($3.00 per gallon) felt in the wake of hurricane Katrina. However, there is evidence that consumers are not as shocked by the high prices during this recent surge. SUV owners are grumbling at the pump as they fill up their gas-guzzlers, but there is no evidence that they are slamming the brakes on spending as they did in the fourth quarter of 2005.

That’s good news.

The current expansion seems to be akin to a drugresistant bacterial infection. One medicine alone is not enough to cure the infection, rather it requires a cocktail of medicines. It looks like it will take a combination of negative shocks to precipitate the next recession, such as a housing slowdown combined with one or more of the following: $100-per-barrel oil, a large interest rate spike due to slowdown in capital flows from the rest of the world, inflation taking root, or Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke going on a hunting trip with Vice President Cheney.

Table 1 presents select results from the May 2007 U.S. forecast publication. This publication, along with all forecast publications, is available for download from the Institute for Economic Competitiveness web site: www.iec.ucf.edu. The forecast reflects a slowing of the U.S. economy in 2007. Consumer spending decelerates in response to a slowing housing market and as a precautionary measure after enduring yet another spike in energy prices. Consumer spending will grow at a slightly faster pace in the second half of the year.

The soft landing is in progress, and after touchdown and refueling of a few quarters, the economy will be poised to take off again in the latter half of 2008.

Table 1. Selected Results from May 2007 U.S. Forecast 2007Q2

2007Q3

2007Q4

2008Q1

2008Q2

2008Q3

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.6

3.1

3.4

5.2

0.3

1.1

1.8

1.8

1.8

Oil - WTI ($ per barrel)

67.1

66.5

64.2

63.2

62.3

62.2

Total Real Consumption

1.6

2.6

2.5

2.8

2.7

3.0

Gross Domestic Product % Chg, Annual Rate

Consumer Price Index % Chg from a year earlier

% Chg, Annual Rate

6

Florida & Metro Forecast

F l o r i d a Summa r y

The H o u s i n g S o uff l é : I t ’ s G o i n g t o B e T o ugh t o Swa l l o w f o r Se l l e r s Housing starts will continue to fall off in 2007 and 2008, as mortgage rates continue their slow climb and housing inventories are finally sold off. The subprime debacle, unscrupulous mortgage brokers, and dishonest borrowers have prolonged the adjustment period with loans that were destined to fail and foreclosures dumped back into an already glutted market. This has primarily been a fundamentalsdriven expansion in the housing sector (as opposed to a purely speculative bubble), and, as long as the fundamentals remain solid as they have thus far, the soufflé will not collapse. There is no sign that the demographic, macroeconomic, and financial underpinnings of the housing market will completely dissipate. In terms of prices, there will be some cooling, and the soufflé is now settling. As we look at the rest of the year and into 2008, the loftiness of the soufflé will continue to give way, as mortgage rates rise. The talk of a national housing bubble has thankfully begun to fade and in a few years time will just seem like a lot of hot air.

The special session in the Florida legislature ended with a resolution (OK, kind of a resolution) to property tax reform. The issue is not fully resolved, but some of the uncertainty surrounding the issue has been cleared. This will help the housing market in Florida as many potential buyers stayed on the sidelines as the war of words raged in Tallahassee and across the state.

All this considered, there will still be pockets of pain throughout the state and particularly in areas where condo flipping spurred excessive building. It will not be easy to sell a home in the next two to four quarters, at least. This is a result of the large inventories available, not because demand has withered away.

Houses are selling, but it might not be the one you have up for sale. Buyers can afford to be picky, and they will — on price and other amenities.

The humble forecasters referred to at the beginning of this write-up were not economic forecasters. It is well know that they have egos larger than an NFL player’s rap sheet. The humble forecasters I am hoping for will be the hurricane prognosticators. I know it

doesn’t seem kosher to wish another forecaster to fall on his face, but in this case I think it is OK from a karma standpoint.

I would like to see another year (or 20) without a major hurricane hitting Florida because of the risk we have all assumed to subsidize coastal development and underwrite insurance in these regions. One or more major hurricanes hitting the state could lead to a financial crisis that will make the current housing worries seem minor.

Sh o r t Ru n H igh l igh t s o f t he F l o r i d a F o r eca s t 2007-2009 • Payroll employment forecasted to grow at 1.5% in 2007, with growth accelerating to 1.9% in 2008 and 2.7% by 2009.

• Forecasted high-growth sectors include: Professional and Business Services, Transportation, Warehousing and Utility, Education and Health Services, and Leisure.

• The housing sector will continue to cool; housing starts will hit their low point in 2007 and begin to rise in 2008 and 2009. In 2009, housing starts will return to 2001 levels.

• The housing soufflé continues to cool.

Prices have been under pressure due to large inventories, but the fundamental drivers of housing demand remain in place and are preventing a more precipitous drop.

• Construction employment will shrink in 2007 and 2008 but will rebound in 2009.

• Gross State Product to grow at an average annual growth rate of 5.8% from 2007 to 2009.

• Unemployment to rise slowly to 3.6% in 2008 and 2009, but this rate is still in excess of 1% lower than forecasts for the national unemployment rate.

• Personal income growth accelerating from 6.1% in 2007 to 7.1% in 2009.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

7

F l o r i d a Summa r y

F o r eca s t o f t he F l o r i d a Economy — 2036 • Statewide population will be in excess of 29 million.

• Gross State Product will reach nearly $3.7 trillion dollars up from 729 billion in 2006.

• Personal income to reach $3.5 trillion in 2036 up from $647 billion in 2006.

• The Florida economy in 2036 will be more than twice the size of California’s economy today.

• Statewide non-farm payroll employment over 13 million in 2036 up from 8 million in 2006.

Ou t l o o k f o r F l o r i d a 2007-2009 G r o s s S t a t e P r o d uc t The Florida economy will continue to see strong growth across our forecast horizon. Aggregate output of the state, nominal Gross State Product (GSP), the state-level analogue to Gross Domestic Product, expanded at an incredible rate of 7.0% in 2006. From 2007 to 2009, GSP will grow at an average rate of 5.8%. During this period, growth will be the strongest in 2009 at 6.6%, rising from 5.0% in 2007. This predicted level of growth is above the nominal GDP growth rate forecast for the national economy during the same time period (4.95 %). Nominal Gross State Product is expected to reach $864 billion by 2009 and will surpass the $900-billion mark the following year.

Real Gross State Product, Gross State Product adjusted for changes in prices, saw growth of 5.5% in 2006, but a rise in prices and a slowing economy is expected to shrink growth to 2.5% for 2007. Growth will accelerate in 2008 and 2009 at 3.9% and 4.5%, respectively.

8

Florida & Metro Forecast

P e r s o n a l I n c o me , Re t ai l Sa l e s , a n d A u t o Sa l e s Personal income growth will decelerate through 2007 but still remain slightly above 6%. Growth will strengthen in 2008 and 2009 with growth rates of 6.3% and 7.1%, respectively. Real disposable income is expected to grow an average of 4.4% from 2007 to 2009 after another surge in energy prices and the housing slowdown have weighed down growth in 2006 and will still be a drag in 2007. In 2008 and 2009, receding price inflation and a resurgent economy will once again power real disposable income growth to 4.6% and 5.0%, above the 4.2% average growth rate of the last ten years.

Energy prices continue to wreak havoc on consumer’s pocket books. This year, prices fell close to the $2-dollar-per-gallon level only to launch like the space shuttle back up to $3 per gallon in a matter of weeks. The volatility of energy prices coupled with the housing slowdown will conspire to erode consumer confidence and spending to some extent. This will lead to the slowest growth in retail spending in several years. The slowdown in spending growth will be short-lived, with consumers picking things up again in 2008-2009. Retail spending will exceed $300 billion in 2009.

After three episodes of gasoline prices at or near the $3-per-gallon level, consumers have continued to shy away from purchases of trucks and SUVs. Vehicle fuel efficiency, rather than the size, has once again become an important characteristic of vehicle purchases for consumers. Foreign manufacturers of fuel-efficient (hybrid and gasoline) vehicles have enjoyed a rising market share at the expense of American firms, who continue to struggle. An easing of energy prices is expected, but wholesale declines in energy prices are not in the cards. Unlike the 1970s, the rise in energy prices had largely been a demand-side phenomenon, and global demand is not likely to wane in the foreseeable future.

F l o r i d a Summa r y

E mp l o y me n t Payroll employment growth in the state was around 3.6% for 2006 and is expected to grow by 1.5% in 2007; this figure is compared to national job growth of 1.9% and 1.2% for 2006 and 2007. For the next two years, employment growth should continue to outpace that of the nation as a whole (1.2%) and average 2.3% in Florida. The growth rate will accelerate from 2007 through 2009, and new jobs will be created at an annual rate of 2.7% in 2009.

The Construction sector, which has seen sweltering growth in recent years (average payroll employment of 10.2% during 2004-2006), will finally begin to show the effects of the significant cooling in the housing market. In 2007 and 2008, however, this sector will experience something that it hasn’t seen since the early 1990s — a decline in payroll employment. The time it will take to work off the large inventory of new and existing housing for sale and the dramatic reduction of projects that builders have in the pipeline will drive significant losses in the residential construction sector.

A still vibrant commercial and civil construction job market will not be able to absorb the excess labor. Job losses in 2007 and 2008 should be -1.9% and -1.3%, respectively. The sector will recover in 2009 with jobs growing at 2.1% that year.

The Professional and Business Services sector is a sector that continues to show robust growth in Florida as well as nationally. 2006 growth came in at 3.9%, and we are forecasting this growth to decelerate along with the overall economy to 2.8% in 2007 before rising to 7.3% in 2009.

The Transportation, Warehousing, and Utility sector should see growth accelerate in 2008 and 2009, with growth rising to 3.1% and 3.5% in these years. This acceleration follows a slowing of growth in 2007 to 0.7%. The Transportation, Warehousing, and Utility sector growth has been hampered by volatile energy prices in the past couple of years that resulted in employment growth dropping from 4.1% in 2005 to a forecast growth of 2.0% for 2006. As energy prices settle in the future and the housing hangover fades, this sector will resume its upward trend.

Manufacturing will continue to contract in Florida and throughout the nation as well. Between 2007

and 2009, an additional 8,000 jobs will be lost. These losses will increase the number of manufacturing jobs lost over the 1999 to 2009 period to 75,700 jobs. Two factors continue to drive the fall in manufacturing employment – increasing pressure from emerging economies and increased productivity of labor. The hemorrhaging of jobs from this sector has slowed to a trickle, but the bleeding will continue through 2009.

U n emp l o y me n t Unemployment rates in the state averaged 3.3% in 2006 and will gradually rise to 3.6% in 2009.

Unemployment rates in the state will remain well below national unemployment rates, which are expected to average 4.8% from 2007 to 2009.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

9

Defi n i t i o n s Average Annual Wage – Total annual wage divided by annual average employment

●●

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Sector ■■

Disposable Income – After-tax income

➤➤

Gross Metro Product – Measure of output for a specific metropolitan area

■■

Labor Force – Consists of all persons classified as employed or unemployed Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) – “The general concept of an MSA is one of a large population nucleus, together with adjacent communities, which have a high degree of economic and social integration with that nucleus.

These are defined by the Office of Management and Budget as a standard for Federal agencies in the preparation and publication of statistics relating to metropolitan areas.”

(Bureau of Labor Statistics) Payroll Employment (from the Current Employment Statistics) – “The total number of persons on establishment payrolls employed full or part time who received pay for any part of the pay period, which includes the 12th day of the month. In short, payroll employment numbers are collected from the place of work.”

Per Capita Income – Average obtained by dividing income by population of an area Personal Income – Income received from all sources, including government transfers and business transfer payments, less contributions for government social insurance Real Personal Income – Personal income adjusted for inflation, in 2000 dollars Seasonally Adjusted (SA) – Removes the effects of events that follow a somewhat regular pattern each year.

Adjustments like these allow one to observe the cyclical and other non-seasonal movements in a data series.

■■

Examples include repair and maintenance services along with other miscellaneous services

Federal Government ■■

●●

Examples include historical sites, museums, and food services

Other Services Sector ■■

●●

Examples include colleges, trade schools, medical care, etc.

Leisure and Hospitality Sector ■■

●●

Examples include engineering services, bookkeeping services, and research

Education and Health Sector ■■

●●

Examples include financial institutions, brokerages, insurance

Professional and Business Sector ■■

●●

Examples include broadcasters, publishers, etc.

Financial Activities Sector ■■

●●

Examples include transportation services, shipping services, utilities, etc.

Information Sector ■■

●●

Examples include car dealerships and retail stores

Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities ➤➤

●●

Examples include food wholesalers, construction wholesalers, etc.

Retail Trade Sector ➤➤

Household Employment – Number of people employed; data collected by place of residence Housing Starts – Data based on the breaking of ground for footings or foundations or beginning a new superstructure on top of an existing foundation

Wholesale Trade Sector

Examples include Postal Service and Department of Defense

State and Local Government ■■

Examples include state and local education, transportation, and administration

Unemployment Rate – Number of unemployed people as a percent of the labor force Wages and Salaries – Gross earnings (not including premium pay such as overtime and bonuses) divided by hours worked

Total Employment – Summation of employment from different industry sectors Example of Sectors: ●●

Manufacturing Sector ■■

Examples include manufacturing metal products, electronic products, vehicles, etc.

●●

Non-manufacturing Sector

●●

Construction Sector ■■

10

Examples include contractors and building construction

Florida & Metro Forecast

Sources and Useful Links: www.bea.gov/bea/glossary www.bea.gov/bea/regional/definitions www.bls.gov/bls/glossary.htm www.bls.gov/ces/cesseriespub.htm

Table 15. Government Receipts and Expenditures

1998

1999

2002

Receipts Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Corp. Profits Tax Accruals Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Contributions for Social Insurance

1653.1 744.3 203.0 78.2 576.4

1773.8 825.8 204.3 81.1 613.8

1891.2 893.0 213.0 83.9 651.7

200

Expenditures Purchases Goods & Services National Defense Other Transfer Payments To Persons To Foreigners Grants in Aid to State & Local Gov't Net Interest Subsidies less Surplus of Gov't Entities Surplus (+) or Deficit (-)

1708.9 530.9 349.6 181.3 918.9 704.2 13.9 198.6 278.5 32.1 -55.8

1735.0 530.5 345.7 184.7 946.5 716.9 14.6 212.8 281.2 34.9 38.8

1787.6 555.8 360.6 195.2 986.1 735.7 15.2 232.9 264.7 44.1 103.6

750.0 182.0 34.1 533.8 10.8 198.6

794.9 201.2 34.9 558.8 10.4 212.8

840.4 214.5 35.8 590.2 9.8 232.9

893.2 236.6 35.6 621.1 11.0 247.3

915.8 242.7 30.2 642.8 13.7 276.1

929.0 221.3 32.2 675.5 15.8 304.6

979 226 35 717 19 338

1058.3 937.8 227.6 -0.1 -11.8 1.5 0.0 39.1

1111.2 987.9 235.8 -1.0 -9.8 1.7 0.0 52.0

1186.3 1065.0 252.4 -3.8 -10.0 1.8 0.0 50.4

1269.5 1142.8 271.7 -4.5 -7.1 1.9 0.0 50.0

1368.2 1212.8 305.2 5.2 3.6 2.0 0.0 4.8

1444.3 1281.5 332.0 16.5 -1.6 2.0 0.0 -34.2

1514 1336 353 24 0 2 0 -20

Receipts JuFederal n e 2Government 007 2053.9 999.1 219.5 87.8 691.7

2016.2 994.5 164.7 85.8 717.5

1853.2 830.5 150.5 87.3 734.3

1879 774 197 89 758

1864.4 578.8 370.3 208.5 1038.1 770.0 18.3 247.3 263.2 46.1 189.5

1969.5 612.9 392.6 220.3 1131.4 838.7 14.0 276.1 240.2 53.1 46.7

2101.1 679.7 437.1 242.5 1243.0 916.9 18.8 304.6 213.7 39.1 -248.0

2252 756 497 259 1328 963 23 338 196 45 -372

State and Local Government Rece Receipts Personal Tan/Nontax Receipts Corporate Profits Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Contributions for Social Insurance Federal Grants-In-Aid Expenditures Purchases Godds & Services Transfer Payments Interest Received Net Subsidies Dividends Received Net Wage Accruals Surplus (+) or Deficit (-)

t ab l e s

F l o r i d a F OR E C A ST

2000

History 2001

1997

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 1999

2000

2001

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch) U.S. (%Ch) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch) U.S. (%Ch) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch)

423.8 5.3 5.1 434.3 5.3 8.6 380.0 3.5 8.6 442.6 6.1 453.3 4.1

457.5 8.0 8.0 457.5 8.0 8.6 398.4 4.8 8.6 471.3 6.5 471.3 4.0

478.6 4.6 3.5 468.8 4.6 6.6 410.5 3.0 6.6 497.4 5.5 484.9 2.9

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

2.3 1.8 4.0 4.2

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Personal Income and GSP 495.5 514.4 565.0 3.5 3.8 9.8 1.8 3.2 6.2 478.5 487.1 521.3 3.5 3.8 9.8 11.9 0.7 3.2 428.4 442.4 470.7 4.4 3.3 6.4 0.7 3.2 11.9 522.7 556.8 609.4 5.1 6.5 9.5 497.3 518.8 552.7 2.6 4.3 6.5

604.1 6.9 5.2 541.8 6.9 7.5 483.2 2.7 7.5 673.3 10.5 595.3 7.7

647.6 7.2 6.3 565.3 7.2 5.6 499.7 3.4 5.6 729.1 8.3 627.6 5.5

687.2 6.1 5.4 588.5 6.1 3.2 518.7 3.8 3.2 765.6 5.0 643.6 2.5

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) 2.3 0.7 0.5 1.9 3.1 4.0 3.8 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.5 2.5 3.1 3.2 3.8 4.7 5.7 5.3 4.7 3.8 3.3 4.0 4.7 5.8 6.0 5.5 5.1 4.6

2.5 2.7 3.4 4.8

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. & Business Services Edu. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't.

State & Local Gov't.

Population (thous) (%Ch) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch)

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

(%Ch) 12

Florida & Metro Forecast

2.4 2.9 -6.8 3.5 -0.8 -2.3 -0.1 1.5 1.0 2.7 2.7 9.4 0.8 1.9 8.5 0.1 1.3

2.2 3.7 -1.8 5.7 -0.1 -2.6 1.2 1.8 3.4 3.2 2.5 7.3 2.8 2.4 5.2 3.8 3.7

0.0 1.3 -7.8 3.6 -4.9 -6.4 -4.1 -0.9 -0.2 -0.4 1.4 2.8 3.1 1.8 0.3 -2.4 2.9

-1.1 0.1 -10.3 1.2 -6.0 -3.7 -7.2 -2.8 -0.2 -1.2 1.2 0.2 2.8 0.4 -5.6 0.4 1.7

-0.3 1.1 -1.2 4.2 -4.4 -3.4 -4.9 -3.2 0.5 -0.2 2.3 1.3 3.8 1.9 -3.6 3.4 1.1

1.1 3.4 0.2 10.2 0.2 -2.1 1.5 1.6 3.4 2.7 3.8 5.1 3.0 4.6 -2.0 0.4 1.4

1.7 4.0 -0.8 12.3 1.2 -1.8 2.7 3.8 4.1 4.2 5.0 6.3 2.5 2.8 0.2 1.6 1.4

1.9 2.6 -7.6 8.2 0.3 -2.5 1.6 1.2 2.7 2.0 3.2 3.9 2.5 1.6 -0.5 -1.0 1.9

1.2 1.5 1.5 -1.9 -1.5 -2.4 -1.1 0.7 1.9 1.2 1.4 2.8 2.8 2.0 -1.1 -0.2 2.1

Population and Migration 15798.1 16089.4 16396.5 16717.5 17034.6 17417.1 17802.9 18134.2 18485.5 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.9 63.0 63.2 69.5 69.0 74.5 86.0 76.5 69.6 74.4 1.6 0.4 10.3 -0.4 9.3 17.3 -10.9 -6.7 7.1

163.4 112.3 51.1

158.4 110.9 47.5

168.0 124.7 43.3

1.2

3.3

3.1

183.1 133.9 49.2

Housing 208.3 158.9 49.4

238.7 182.5 56.2

272.5 211.5 61.0

211.4 164.5 46.9

138.6 103.5 35.1

Consumer Prices 1.5 2.9 2.8

4.7

5.0

2.4

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch) U.S. (%Ch) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch) U.S. (%Ch) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch)

730.6 6.3 5.1 614.1 6.3 5.8 542.4 4.6 5.8 810.5 5.9 668.7 3.9

782.9 7.1 5.8 644.8 7.1 6.7 569.4 5.0 6.7 864.2 6.6 699.0 4.5

839.7 7.3 6.0 678.3 7.3 6.5 597.5 4.9 6.5 920.5 6.5 729.5 4.4

Personal Income and GSP 894.1 946.9 1001.1 1059.2 6.5 5.9 5.7 5.8 4.8 5.4 5.0 4.8 708.1 735.5 762.8 792.2 6.5 5.9 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.7 5.4 5.2 622.7 645.7 668.6 694.1 4.2 3.7 3.5 3.8 5.9 5.7 5.4 5.2 974.8 1029.6 1086.4 1147.6 5.9 5.6 5.5 5.6 756.5 782.9 810.1 839.7 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.7

1121.5 5.9 4.9 823.2 5.9 5.2 721.3 3.9 5.2 1212.2 5.6 870.6 3.7

1187.5 5.9 4.9 855.2 5.9 5.2 749.4 3.9 5.2 1279.4 5.5 902.0 3.6

1257.5 5.9 4.9 888.3 5.9 5.2 778.1 3.8 5.2 1350.6 5.6 934.8 3.6

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

1.9 2.0 3.6 4.9

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.7

1.2 1.3 4.0 4.7

1.2 1.2 4.0 4.7

0.6 1.5 -2.2 2.1 -0.1 -0.7 0.2 2.8 2.2 -0.2 0.5 3.9 0.9 0.1 1.3 0.7 1.0

0.7 1.5 -2.1 2.0 0.0 -0.5 0.3 2.8 2.2 -0.2 0.3 4.0 1.1 -0.1 1.2 0.7 1.1

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. & Business Services Edu. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't.

State & Local Gov't.

Population (thous) (%Ch) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch)

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

(%Ch)

1.1 1.9 1.0 -1.3 -1.5 -1.7 -1.5 3.1 1.9 2.5 1.0 5.1 1.8 2.1 0.0 1.1 1.3

1.4 2.7 -0.8 2.1 -0.5 -1.4 -0.1 3.5 2.3 1.9 1.9 7.3 2.1 1.4 2.2 0.2 1.6

1.4 2.6 -1.4 3.6 -0.1 -0.7 0.2 3.5 2.5 1.2 2.2 6.3 1.4 1.6 1.9 3.7 1.5

1.0 2.0 -2.3 2.7 -0.2 -0.5 -0.1 3.1 2.2 0.9 1.6 4.6 1.2 1.5 2.0 -2.4 1.3

0.7 1.6 -2.6 1.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.3 2.4 1.8 0.6 0.8 3.8 1.5 1.0 1.9 0.8 1.3

0.5 1.4 -2.6 0.8 -0.6 -0.9 -0.5 2.1 1.7 0.4 0.5 3.7 1.3 0.6 1.7 0.8 1.2

0.6 1.5 -2.5 1.4 -0.4 -0.8 -0.3 2.3 1.8 0.3 0.6 4.1 1.1 0.3 1.4 0.9 1.2

0.6 1.5 -2.4 1.9 -0.3 -0.7 -0.1 2.5 2.0 0.0 0.7 4.1 1.2 0.2 1.4 0.8 1.1

Population and Migration 18839.0 19194.2 19550.6 19905.7 20263.8 20617.8 20966.9 21315.0 21660.5 22005.1 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 74.1 74.4 74.1 73.9 74.9 72.0 71.8 71.3 70.8 70.7 -0.4 0.4 -0.3 -0.3 1.3 -3.8 -0.3 -0.7 -0.7 -0.1

152.9 111.9 41.0

167.2 123.1 44.1

169.8 126.3 43.5

167.1 125.1 42.1

Housing 164.5 164.1 123.5 123.6 41.0 40.5

165.3 124.5 40.8

167.7 125.9 41.8

168.1 125.3 42.9

167.2 123.0 44.2

1.9

2.0

1.9

2.0

Consumer Prices 1.9 1.9

1.8

1.9

1.9

1.9

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

13

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2018

2019

2020

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch) U.S. (%Ch) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch) U.S. (%Ch) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch)

1331.5 5.9 5.0 922.6 5.9 5.7 808.2 3.9 5.7 1426.4 5.6 969.0 3.7

1408.2 5.8 4.9 957.3 5.8 5.8 838.3 3.7 5.8 1504.8 5.5 1003.6 3.6

1488.9 5.7 5.0 993.0 5.7 5.9 869.1 3.7 5.9 1587.8 5.5 1039.8 3.6

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

1.2 1.2 4.1 4.7

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

Personal Income and GSP 1571.7 1660.0 1753.5 1851.9 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 1028.6 1065.9 1104.2 1143.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.1 899.8 932.2 965.2 999.4 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.5 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.1 1673.0 1764.0 1860.0 1962.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 1076.0 1114.1 1153.1 1194.1 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

1956.4 5.6 4.9 1184.1 5.6 5.0 1034.7 3.5 5.0 2071.5 5.6 1236.9 3.6

2066.4 5.6 4.9 1225.8 5.6 5.0 1070.9 3.5 5.0 2184.7 5.5 1280.0 3.5

2179.8 5.5 4.8 1267.3 5.5 4.8 1106.9 3.4 4.8 2300.4 5.3 1322.7 3.3

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6

1.4 1.4 4.3 4.6

1.4 1.5 4.3 4.6

0.9 1.6 -0.1 2.7 -0.4 -0.9 -0.2 1.8 2.1 0.6 1.2 2.9 1.1 0.5 1.6 0.8 0.7

1.0 1.5 -0.1 2.6 -0.4 -0.9 -0.2 2.1 2.0 0.8 1.1 2.4 1.1 0.6 1.8 0.8 0.7

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. & Business Services Edu. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't.

State & Local Gov't.

Population (thous) (%Ch) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch)

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

(%Ch) 14

Florida & Metro Forecast

0.7 1.5 -1.8 1.7 -0.1 -0.5 0.0 1.5 2.4 0.0 0.7 3.9 1.3 0.0 1.0 0.8 1.0

0.8 1.5 -1.1 1.0 -0.5 -0.7 -0.4 0.9 2.5 0.2 0.9 3.6 1.4 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.8

0.9 1.6 -0.3 1.2 -0.6 -0.7 -0.5 1.3 2.3 0.4 1.0 3.6 1.4 0.5 1.1 3.6 0.8

0.9 1.5 -0.1 1.4 -0.6 -0.7 -0.5 1.7 2.3 0.6 1.0 3.3 1.6 0.5 1.5 -2.1 0.7

0.9 1.6 0.0 1.6 -0.6 -0.9 -0.5 1.9 2.3 0.6 1.0 3.5 1.5 0.5 1.6 0.8 0.7

1.0 1.7 0.1 1.8 -0.6 -1.0 -0.4 1.9 2.2 0.7 1.0 3.5 1.5 0.5 1.6 0.8 0.7

1.0 1.7 0.1 2.0 -0.6 -1.0 -0.4 1.8 2.3 0.6 1.0 3.6 1.4 0.4 1.6 0.8 0.7

0.9 1.6 0.1 2.4 -0.5 -1.0 -0.3 1.8 2.4 0.5 1.2 3.3 1.2 0.4 1.5 0.8 0.8

Population and Migration 22349.9 22695.6 23041.8 23393.1 23747.2 24100.0 24455.8 24816.5 25180.6 25552.0 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 70.9 71.1 71.7 73.1 73.3 73.4 74.5 75.5 76.8 78.5 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.9 0.3 0.1 1.5 1.3 1.8 2.2

166.1 120.7 45.4

165.0 118.6 46.4

163.8 116.5 47.3

161.8 114.1 47.7

Housing 160.4 159.1 112.0 109.9 48.4 49.2

159.5 109.4 50.1

161.2 110.3 50.8

162.1 110.1 52.0

160.6 107.4 53.1

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

Consumer Prices 1.9 1.9

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.0

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2028

2029

2030

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch) U.S. (%Ch) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch) U.S. (%Ch) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch)

2296.9 5.4 4.7 1308.7 5.4 4.7 1143.0 3.3 4.7 2420.0 5.2 1365.7 3.3

2419.4 5.3 4.7 1350.7 5.3 4.6 1179.4 3.2 4.6 2547.2 5.3 1410.8 3.3

2550.4 5.4 4.7 1394.9 5.4 4.8 1217.4 3.2 4.8 2684.2 5.4 1459.0 3.4

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

1.4 1.5 4.4 4.6

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

Personal Income and GSP 2687.6 2832.1 2983.2 5.4 5.4 5.3 4.6 4.6 4.5 1440.3 1487.0 1535.0 5.4 5.4 5.3 4.6 4.5 4.4 1256.5 1296.8 1337.8 3.2 3.2 3.2 4.6 4.5 4.4 2826.3 2974.6 3131.0 5.3 5.2 5.3 1508.2 1558.6 1611.6 3.4 3.3 3.4

3145.0 5.4 4.5 1585.6 5.4 4.4 1381.2 3.2 4.4 3299.3 5.4 1668.2 3.5

3316.9 5.5 4.5 1638.1 5.5 4.3 1425.8 3.2 4.3 3477.3 5.4 1726.9 3.5

3501.0 5.6 4.5 1692.9 5.6 4.3 1472.1 3.2 4.3 3668.0 5.5 1788.4 3.6

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6

1.5 1.5 4.6 4.6

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. & Business Services Edu. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't.

State & Local Gov't.

Population (thous) (%Ch) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch)

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

(%Ch)

0.9 1.4 0.0 2.5 -0.6 -0.9 -0.4 2.3 1.9 0.9 1.0 2.2 1.1 0.6 1.8 0.8 0.7

0.9 1.5 0.0 2.5 -0.7 -0.9 -0.6 1.6 2.0 0.9 1.1 2.3 1.1 0.8 1.8 0.8 0.7

0.9 1.6 0.1 3.0 -0.7 -0.9 -0.6 1.0 2.0 0.8 1.2 2.5 1.1 0.5 1.8 3.8 0.7

1.0 1.7 0.3 3.4 -0.3 -0.7 -0.2 1.1 2.0 1.0 1.3 2.8 1.1 0.7 2.1 -2.0 0.7

1.0 1.7 0.4 3.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.2 1.1 1.9 0.9 1.2 2.8 1.2 0.5 2.2 0.8 0.6

1.0 1.7 0.4 3.0 -0.4 -0.6 -0.3 0.9 1.7 1.0 1.3 3.0 1.1 0.7 2.2 0.8 0.7

0.9 1.7 0.5 3.0 -0.4 -0.6 -0.4 0.8 1.6 0.8 1.3 3.3 1.0 0.4 2.2 0.8 0.7

0.9 1.7 0.4 2.8 -0.3 -0.6 -0.2 0.4 1.4 0.9 1.2 3.2 0.8 0.5 2.2 0.8 0.6

0.8 1.7 0.5 2.8 -0.2 -0.6 -0.1 0.3 1.3 0.7 1.2 3.4 0.8 0.3 2.2 0.8 0.6

Population and Migration 25929.0 26308.5 26689.4 27071.9 27456.0 27842.0 28230.0 28620.0 29010.9 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 79.8 80.9 82.1 83.2 84.4 85.6 86.8 88.0 88.5 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 0.6

157.5 103.6 53.9

156.2 101.8 54.4

156.8 101.9 54.9

2.0

2.0

2.0

156.4 100.9 55.5

Housing 153.6 97.8 55.9

152.3 96.2 56.1

152.4 96.1 56.3

152.4 96.2 56.2

152.6 96.5 56.1

Consumer Prices 2.0 2.0 2.0

2.0

2.0

2.1

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

15

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Chg Year Ago) U.S. (%Chg Year Ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Chg Year Ago) U.S. (%Chg Year Ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Chg Year Ago) U.S. (%Chg Year Ago) GSP (Bil. $) (%Chg Year Ago) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Chg Year Ago)

682.4 6.3 5.5 585.0 6.3 2.4 515.7 4.1 2.4 760.8 4.8 641.0 2.4

691.5 6.0 5.4 590.8 6.0 3.8 520.9 4.1 3.8 770.0 4.9 645.7 2.5

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

2.6 2.8 3.4 4.7

2.3 2.6 3.5 4.9

701.8 6.1 5.5 597.4 6.1 4.5 527.0 3.6 4.5 779.7 5.1 651.1 2.7

712.5 5.8 4.8 603.3 5.8 5.4 532.0 4.1 5.4 790.8 5.1 657.1 3.2

Personal Income and GSP 724.4 736.5 749.1 6.2 6.5 6.7 5.1 5.3 5.5 610.5 617.6 625.1 6.2 6.5 6.7 5.6 5.9 6.3 539.4 545.8 552.4 4.6 4.8 4.8 5.6 5.9 6.3 803.7 817.0 830.7 5.6 6.1 6.5 664.7 672.4 680.4 3.7 4.1 4.5

762.0 6.9 5.6 632.3 6.9 6.5 558.5 5.0 6.5 843.0 6.6 687.0 4.5

775.7 7.1 5.8 640.6 7.1 6.7 565.9 4.9 6.7 857.1 6.6 695.1 4.6

789.7 7.2 5.9 648.8 7.2 6.7 573.1 5.0 6.7 871.2 6.6 703.1 4.6

804.0 7.3 6.0 657.3 7.3 6.7 580.3 5.0 6.7 885.4 6.6 710.9 4.5

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) 2.1 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.4 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7

1.8 1.9 3.6 4.6

1.8 1.8 3.6 4.6

1.5 2.7 -0.9 2.4 -0.4 -1.2 0.0 3.6 2.4 1.9 2.0 7.4 2.0 1.5 2.2 0.2 1.6

1.4 2.7 -1.0 3.4 -0.2 -1.0 0.2 3.7 2.5 1.6 2.2 7.2 1.7 1.5 1.9 1.4 1.7

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. & Business Services Edu. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't.

State & Local Gov't.

Population (thous) (%Chg Year Ago) Net Migration (thous) (%Chg Year Ago)

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

(%Chg Year Ago) *Quarterly at an annual rate 16

Florida & Metro Forecast

1.4 1.5 0.0 -2.4 -1.6 -2.7 -1.1 0.0 1.8 1.1 1.4 2.6 3.0 2.4 -0.8 -2.0 2.4

1.1 1.4 4.9 -2.7 -1.7 -2.3 -1.5 1.0 1.9 1.2 1.7 2.5 2.9 1.8 -1.0 0.6 2.0

1.0 1.4 2.6 -3.0 -1.2 -1.4 -1.1 2.3 1.6 1.8 1.1 3.2 2.3 1.7 -2.2 1.4 1.7

0.8 1.5 2.0 -2.7 -1.8 -1.5 -1.9 2.7 1.5 2.0 0.9 3.9 1.7 2.3 -1.5 1.7 1.4

0.9 1.7 1.3 -1.8 -1.8 -1.7 -1.9 3.0 1.8 2.3 0.7 4.6 1.6 2.2 -0.8 1.7 1.3

1.2 2.1 0.6 -0.5 -1.4 -1.8 -1.2 3.3 2.1 2.7 1.0 5.5 1.8 2.0 0.3 0.9 1.3

1.3 2.3 0.2 -0.1 -1.1 -1.8 -0.8 3.3 2.2 2.8 1.3 6.3 2.0 1.8 1.9 0.2 1.3

1.4 2.5 -0.4 0.8 -0.9 -1.6 -0.6 3.3 2.2 2.2 1.6 7.1 2.3 1.5 2.4 -0.3 1.4

1.5 2.7 -0.7 1.7 -0.6 -1.5 -0.1 3.5 2.3 2.1 1.8 7.6 2.3 1.1 2.2 -0.4 1.5

Population and Migration 18441.9 18529.6 18617.7 18706.1 18794.9 18883.1 18971.7 19060.6 19149.9 19238.6 19327.6 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 75.0 73.4 73.8 74.1 74.4 73.7 74.1 74.4 74.7 74.0 74.3 12.1 3.9 -0.9 -1.6 -0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4

137.7 103.8 33.9

140.8 104.6 36.2

144.0 106.2 37.7

147.8 108.5 39.3

2.4

2.0

2.4

2.0

150.7 110.5 40.1

Housing 154.5 112.9 41.6

158.6 115.8 42.7

163.1 119.3 43.8

165.9 122.0 44.0

168.8 124.4 44.4

171.0 126.7 44.3

Consumer Prices 1.7 1.9 2.1

2.1

2.0

2.0

2.0

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 3. Employment Quarterly* 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm Manufacturing Durable Goods

8114.0

8134.8

8168.1

8206.9

8252.8

8303.8

8357.5

8412.9

8472.0

8530.3

8586.7

14097.0 14017.1 13972.6 13914.1 13856.5 13826.9 13804.0 13788.7 13780.8 13775.1 13779.5 273.8

271.6

270.3

269.5

268.5

268.2

268.0

268.0

268.1

268.2

268.5

Wood Products

18.9

18.8

18.7

18.6

18.5

18.5

18.4

18.5

18.6

18.7

18.7

Computer & Electronics

49.0

48.3

48.0

47.9

47.8

47.7

47.6

47.5

47.5

47.4

47.4

1718.8

1723.8

1731.3

1737.9

1739.9

1749.4

1758.7

1766.4

1775.4

1781.9

1789.2

124.0

123.6

123.1

122.5

122.0

121.4

120.9

120.5

120.1

119.8

119.6

29.9

30.0

29.9

29.9

29.9

29.9

29.9

29.9

29.9

29.9

29.9

7716.2

7739.6

7774.7

7814.9

7862.3

7914.2

7968.6

8024.4

8083.8

8142.3

8198.6

6.6

6.6

6.7

6.7

6.7

6.7

6.7

6.7

6.6

6.6

6.6

Construction

626.9

620.9

618.4

616.2

615.7

617.9

617.8

621.2

626.1

632.6

638.6

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

245.5

247.1

248.9

251.1

252.9

255.2

257.2

259.4

261.7

264.4

266.7

Wholesale Trade

352.9

354.0

355.6

357.3

359.1

361.3

363.2

365.1

367.3

369.9

372.2

Retail Trade

1016.0

1016.7

1023.3

1032.4

1039.2

1044.6

1051.8

1055.3

1060.6

1063.9

1068.2

Information

166.3

165.4

163.8

163.8

164.9

165.9

166.9

167.7

168.6

169.4

170.1

1369.8

1384.7

1398.2

1412.4

1432.3

1460.8

1486.2

1512.1

1541.4

1569.5

1592.6

Admin. & Support

838.4

846.3

853.4

861.7

875.9

898.6

918.4

938.8

962.6

985.3

1003.5

Prof. Sci & Tech

458.3

465.0

471.2

476.7

482.0

487.5

492.5

497.6

502.7

507.7

512.1

73.1

73.3

73.7

74.0

74.4

74.7

75.2

75.6

76.1

76.5

77.0

Financial Activities

554.1

554.8

555.0

556.4

557.9

560.1

562.4

565.4

567.8

571.3

574.6

Real Estate & Rent

179.8

180.3

180.8

181.4

182.1

182.9

183.6

184.2

185.0

185.7

186.5

Fin. & Insurance

374.2

374.5

374.3

375.0

375.8

377.2

378.8

381.1

382.8

385.5

388.1

Edu. & Health Service

995.2

999.6

1003.4

1006.1

1011.0

1018.0

1023.6

1029.0

1034.0

1038.3

1041.1

Education Services

127.9

128.2

128.3

128.7

129.1

129.6

130.1

130.7

131.3

131.9

132.5

Health Services

867.3

871.4

875.1

877.4

881.9

888.4

893.5

898.3

902.7

906.4

908.6

Leisure & Hospitality

922.6

922.2

928.6

936.9

943.2

940.2

945.3

950.9

953.4

954.2

959.3

Other Services

345.7

347.8

348.5

348.7

349.4

350.1

350.5

351.0

351.5

352.3

353.0

Government

1114.7

1119.8

1124.2

1126.9

1130.0

1133.4

1137.1

1140.7

1144.7

1149.9

1155.6

Federal Gov't

126.6

127.6

128.2

128.5

128.8

128.7

128.5

128.2

128.2

128.9

130.3

State & Local Gov't

988.1

992.2

996.0

998.3

1001.2

1004.6

1008.6

1012.5

1016.5

1020.9

1025.4

Transportation Equipment Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Prof. & Business Services

Mgmt. of Co.

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

17

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 4. Employment Annual 1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

6815.8

7069.4

7160.0

7169.1

7250.4

7499.0

7799.9

8006.0

8125.7

Manufacturing

463.9

463.4

440.8

414.1

395.9

396.8

401.6

402.6

396.4

Durable Goods

304.1

307.8

295.2

273.9

260.5

264.3

271.5

275.7

272.6

Wood Products

16.7

16.7

17.2

18.1

17.6

18.2

18.7

19.0

18.8

Computer & Electronics

67.6

69.7

67.2

59.1

52.8

51.9

50.8

49.8

48.5

2087.1

2055.6

1937.8

1828.9

1774.0

1765.7

1771.3

1764.8

1723.9

159.8

155.6

145.6

140.2

135.4

132.5

130.1

126.8

123.8

36.8

36.1

34.6

34.6

33.5

32.7

31.7

30.6

29.9

6351.9

6606.0

6719.3

6755.0

6854.5

7102.3

7398.4

7603.4

7729.3

8.9

8.7

8.0

7.2

7.1

7.1

7.1

6.5

6.6

Construction

412.5

435.9

451.7

457.1

476.2

525.0

589.6

637.1

624.9

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

241.5

245.9

243.8

236.8

229.2

232.8

241.7

244.6

246.5

Wholesale Trade

303.4

313.7

312.9

312.2

313.8

324.5

337.9

347.1

353.6

Retail Trade

908.5

937.9

934.5

923.1

920.8

946.0

985.4

1004.8

1017.0

Information

178.6

187.9

188.3

177.8

171.3

167.9

168.2

167.3

165.4

1031.8

1107.4

1138.2

1140.3

1155.6

1214.9

1290.9

1340.8

1378.2

Admin. & Support

634.9

686.3

704.9

700.2

706.7

743.6

789.8

818.7

842.9

Prof. Sci & Tech

336.3

361.8

371.2

374.7

382.8

401.9

429.1

448.8

462.0

60.7

59.3

62.1

65.3

66.2

69.4

72.1

73.2

73.3

Financial Activities

451.8

462.9

469.3

474.9

485.6

504.2

529.6

546.4

553.9

Real Estate & Rent

138.0

143.5

147.0

150.2

153.4

162.2

172.4

178.3

180.1

Fin. & Insurance

313.8

319.5

322.4

324.7

332.2

342.0

357.2

368.1

373.8

Edu. & Health Service

793.3

815.5

840.6

863.7

896.4

923.5

946.6

969.9

996.9

84.7

91.5

94.5

99.7

108.2

116.9

122.8

125.3

128.0

Health Services

708.6

724.0

746.1

764.0

788.1

806.6

823.9

844.6

868.9

Leisure & Hospitality

776.4

794.9

809.2

812.6

828.2

866.0

890.4

904.6

922.4

Other Services

279.8

293.9

299.4

310.2

317.2

324.3

329.8

336.7

346.4

Government

965.5

1001.4

1023.2

1039.2

1053.0

1066.1

1081.2

1097.7

1117.5

Federal Gov't

120.5

125.0

121.7

122.2

126.3

126.8

128.7

127.5

127.2

State & Local Gov't

845.0

876.4

901.5

917.0

926.8

939.4

952.5

970.2

990.3

Transportation Equipment Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Prof. & Business Services

Mgmt. of Co.

Education Services

18

Florida & Metro Forecast

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 4. Employment Annual 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

8280.3

8500.5

8720.6

8895.0

9039.7

9170.1

9309.2

9453.1

9597.0

9744.0

Manufacturing

390.2

388.2

388.0

387.1

385.4

383.2

381.5

380.6

380.3

380.5

Durable Goods

268.6

268.2

268.8

268.5

267.7

266.5

265.8

265.6

266.1

266.9

Wood Products

18.5

18.6

18.9

19.1

19.1

19.0

19.0

19.1

19.2

19.2

Computer & Electronics

47.8

47.5

47.4

47.0

46.5

46.2

46.3

46.3

46.5

46.9

1746.5

1778.2

1794.0

1803.2

1783.8

1741.5

1699.9

1656.3

1615.7

1584.4

121.7

120.0

119.2

118.6

117.7

116.7

115.8

114.9

114.2

113.6

29.9

29.9

29.9

30.0

30.0

30.0

30.0

30.0

30.0

30.1

7890.0

8112.3

8332.6

8507.9

8654.3

8786.9

8927.7

9072.5

9216.6

9363.5

6.7

6.6

6.5

6.4

6.2

6.1

5.9

5.8

5.6

5.5

Construction

616.9

629.6

652.5

670.2

679.2

685.0

694.6

707.7

722.8

737.4

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

254.1

263.0

272.2

280.8

287.4

293.6

300.3

307.8

316.4

325.3

Wholesale Trade

360.3

368.6

377.8

386.2

393.0

399.5

406.8

414.8

423.7

433.1

Retail Trade

1042.0

1062.0

1075.2

1085.3

1091.8

1096.4

1099.4

1099.2

1097.5

1094.8

Information

165.4

169.0

172.1

175.5

178.8

181.9

184.4

186.9

189.4

191.7

1447.9

1553.9

1651.1

1726.6

1791.4

1858.2

1934.5

2013.2

2092.5

2175.8

Admin. & Support

888.7

972.5

1051.0

1110.8

1161.3

1212.5

1270.1

1328.5

1386.9

1448.6

Prof. Sci & Tech

484.7

505.0

521.7

535.4

547.6

561.1

577.5

595.6

614.0

633.0

74.6

76.3

78.3

80.4

82.5

84.6

86.8

89.2

91.6

94.3

Financial Activities

559.2

569.7

582.1

591.7

596.5

599.6

602.9

606.8

609.9

611.6

Real Estate & Rent

182.5

185.4

188.2

190.6

192.4

194.0

195.7

197.4

199.1

200.7

Fin. & Insurance

376.7

384.4

393.9

401.0

404.1

405.6

407.2

409.4

410.8

410.8

1014.7

1035.6

1049.6

1062.1

1078.1

1092.2

1104.7

1117.4

1127.9

1140.5

Education Services

129.4

131.6

133.9

135.4

135.8

135.8

136.1

136.4

136.9

137.7

Health Services

885.3

904.0

915.8

926.8

942.3

956.4

968.6

981.0

990.9

1002.9

Leisure & Hospitality

941.4

954.5

969.9

984.4

994.5

1000.0

1002.9

1004.8

1006.1

1005.6

Other Services

349.7

351.9

355.5

360.5

364.4

367.6

370.7

374.5

378.9

383.3

Government

1131.8

1147.7

1167.9

1178.2

1192.9

1207.0

1220.6

1233.4

1245.9

1258.9

Federal Gov't

128.6

128.9

133.7

130.4

131.5

132.6

133.7

134.8

135.7

136.7

1003.2

1018.8

1034.3

1047.7

1061.4

1074.4

1086.9

1098.7

1110.2

1122.2

Transportation Equipment Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Prof. & Business Services

Mgmt. of Co.

Edu. & Health Service

State & Local Gov't

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

19

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 4. Employment Annual 2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

9891.4 10035.5 10194.5 10351.5 10521.7 10698.2 10880.3 11059.1 11235.6 11405.5

Manufacturing

379.9

378.2

376.0

373.9

371.7

369.6

367.6

365.6

363.9

362.4

Durable Goods

266.9

266.0

264.6

263.3

262.1

261.1

260.1

259.2

258.6

258.0

Wood Products

19.2

19.0

18.8

18.7

18.7

18.6

18.6

18.6

18.6

18.6

Computer & Electronics

47.1

46.8

46.7

46.6

46.8

47.1

47.4

47.8

48.3

48.7

1564.4

1543.3

1526.3

1501.5

1482.0

1469.5

1462.0

1453.8

1444.6

1427.5

113.0

112.2

111.4

110.6

109.6

108.6

107.5

106.4

105.3

104.4

30.1

30.1

30.1

30.2

30.2

30.2

30.2

30.3

30.3

30.3

9511.5

9657.3

9818.4

5.4

5.4

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.3

Construction

749.7

756.9

766.0

777.1

789.4

803.8

819.9

839.4

862.0

884.8

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

330.1

333.3

337.6

343.5

349.9

356.5

362.8

369.1

376.0

383.8

Wholesale Trade

443.5

454.4

464.8

475.5

486.5

497.2

508.5

520.4

531.6

542.2

Retail Trade

1094.7

1097.0

1101.9

1108.3

1115.3

1122.9

1130.1

1136.3

1143.4

1152.2

Information

193.6

195.4

197.5

200.5

203.6

206.9

210.2

213.4

216.8

220.6

2260.2

2341.2

2424.5

2505.5

2593.4

2684.1

2780.5

2871.4

2954.4

3026.6

Admin. & Support

1507.8

1558.9

1612.1

1661.8

1719.1

1779.6

1845.1

1904.0

1954.2

1993.8

Prof. Sci & Tech

655.5

682.9

710.7

739.9

768.3

796.2

824.8

854.5

885.0

915.3

96.9

99.3

101.6

103.7

106.0

108.2

110.5

112.9

115.3

117.5

Financial Activities

615.6

621.3

627.7

634.2

640.7

647.0

653.8

661.4

669.3

676.6

Real Estate & Rent

202.5

204.4

206.4

208.5

210.6

212.7

215.0

217.3

219.5

221.7

Fin. & Insurance

413.2

416.9

421.3

425.8

430.1

434.3

438.8

444.1

449.7

454.9

1155.0

1170.7

1186.9

1205.5

1223.3

1241.1

1257.9

1272.7

1286.6

1301.2

138.6

139.7

141.1

142.7

144.3

145.9

147.4

148.9

150.4

151.9

Health Services

1016.4

1031.0

1045.8

1062.9

1079.0

1095.2

1110.4

1123.7

1136.2

1149.3

Leisure & Hospitality

1005.8

1008.9

1013.9

1018.8

1023.4

1028.2

1032.1

1036.1

1041.8

1048.2

387.2

391.3

396.1

401.9

408.1

414.6

421.0

427.1

433.9

441.1

Government

1270.7

1281.6

1296.2

1301.5

1311.2

1320.9

1330.7

1340.8

1350.7

1360.4

Federal Gov't

137.8

139.2

144.1

141.1

142.1

143.2

144.3

145.4

146.5

147.6

1132.9

1142.4

1152.1

1160.5

1169.1

1177.7

1186.4

1195.4

1204.2

1212.8

Transportation Equipment Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Prof. & Business Services

Mgmt. of Co.

Edu. & Health Service Education Services

Other Services

State & Local Gov't

20

Florida & Metro Forecast

9977.6 10150.0 10328.6 10512.7 10693.5 10871.7 11043.1

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 4. Employment Annual 2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

11570.0 11739.7 11922.9 12120.6 12323.1 12534.0 12752.8 12968.2 13189.1

Manufacturing

360.3

357.7

355.4

354.2

353.0

351.5

349.9

348.7

347.9

Durable Goods

256.8

255.2

253.7

253.2

252.6

251.8

250.9

250.3

250.0

Wood Products

18.5

18.4

18.4

18.5

18.4

18.4

18.4

18.5

18.5

Computer & Electronics

49.2

49.7

50.2

50.7

51.3

51.8

52.4

53.0

53.6

1405.2

1384.0

1370.7

1362.7

1352.3

1340.2

1332.6

1329.2

1318.8

103.5

102.6

101.7

100.9

100.3

99.7

99.1

98.5

97.9

30.4

30.4

30.4

30.5

30.5

30.6

30.7

30.7

30.8

Transportation Equipment Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

11209.7 11382.0 11567.5 11766.4 11970.2 12182.5 12402.9 12619.5 12841.2 5.3

5.3

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.5

5.5

Construction

906.8

929.8

957.5

990.4

1022.5

1052.9

1084.4

1114.6

1145.7

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

392.6

398.7

402.6

407.2

411.7

415.4

418.9

420.8

422.0

Wholesale Trade

552.6

563.5

575.1

586.7

597.7

608.0

618.0

626.6

634.6

Retail Trade

1162.2

1173.3

1182.3

1193.6

1204.8

1217.2

1227.2

1237.8

1246.8

Information

224.5

228.5

232.7

237.5

242.8

248.1

253.7

259.1

264.8

3093.4

3164.3

3244.4

3334.1

3426.2

3527.7

3642.7

3759.8

3886.1

Admin. & Support

2028.1

2066.2

2112.8

2168.2

2226.2

2294.4

2376.3

2459.8

2551.7

Prof. Sci & Tech

945.6

976.1

1007.3

1039.4

1071.2

1102.2

1132.8

1163.7

1195.4

Mgmt. of Co.

119.7

122.0

124.3

126.6

128.8

131.1

133.6

136.3

139.1

Financial Activities

683.4

690.9

699.5

708.4

717.2

726.5

736.0

744.7

753.6

Real Estate & Rent

223.7

225.9

228.1

230.4

232.5

234.6

236.8

239.0

241.2

Fin. & Insurance

459.7

465.1

471.4

478.0

484.7

491.9

499.1

505.6

512.4

1315.9

1330.6

1344.8

1359.7

1375.7

1390.8

1404.6

1416.4

1427.8

153.3

154.7

156.3

157.8

159.3

160.8

162.4

163.7

165.1

Health Services

1162.6

1175.9

1188.5

1201.9

1216.4

1229.9

1242.3

1252.7

1262.8

Leisure & Hospitality

1054.8

1062.7

1068.2

1075.7

1081.5

1088.9

1093.4

1099.1

1102.1

448.5

455.6

462.5

469.8

477.8

485.3

492.6

500.0

507.5

Government

1369.6

1378.7

1392.5

1397.8

1406.8

1416.3

1425.9

1435.2

1444.6

Federal Gov't

148.7

149.8

155.6

152.4

153.6

154.7

155.9

157.1

158.3

1220.9

1228.9

1236.9

1245.4

1253.2

1261.5

1269.9

1278.1

1286.4

Prof. & Business Services

Edu. & Health Service Education Services

Other Services

State & Local Gov't

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

21

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly* 2007Q2

2007Q3

2007Q4

2008Q1

2008Q2

2008Q3

2008Q4

2009Q1

2009Q2

2009Q3

2009Q4

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

682.4

691.5

701.8

712.5

724.4

736.5

749.1

762.0

775.7

789.7

804.0

Wages & Salaries

340.6

344.3

348.1

352.4

357.1

362.3

367.6

373.2

379.1

385.3

391.5

Other Labor Income

77.3

78.1

79.2

80.3

81.4

82.6

83.9

85.1

86.4

87.8

89.2

Nonfarm

40.2

40.7

41.3

42.0

42.8

43.5

44.3

45.1

46.0

46.8

47.6

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

Property Income

Farm

165.4

168.1

171.3

174.8

178.8

182.5

186.6

190.7

195.0

199.4

203.8

Transfer Payments

109.7

111.7

113.9

116.1

118.1

120.1

122.1

124.3

126.5

128.7

131.0

53.0

53.6

54.2

55.2

55.9

56.7

57.5

58.7

59.6

60.5

61.4

Social Insurance

Billions 2000 Dollars Personal Income

585.0

590.8

597.4

603.3

610.5

617.6

625.1

632.3

640.6

648.8

657.3

Wages & Salaries

292.0

294.2

296.3

298.4

301.0

303.8

306.7

309.7

313.0

316.6

320.0

Other Labor Income

66.2

66.8

67.5

68.0

68.6

69.3

70.0

70.6

71.4

72.1

72.9

Nonfarm

34.5

34.8

35.2

35.6

36.1

36.5

36.9

37.4

38.0

38.4

38.9

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

Farm

141.8

143.7

145.8

148.0

150.7

153.1

155.7

158.2

161.1

163.8

166.6

Transfer Payments

Property Income

94.0

95.4

96.9

98.3

99.5

100.7

101.9

103.2

104.4

105.7

107.1

Social Insurance

45.4

45.8

46.1

46.8

47.1

47.6

48.0

48.7

49.2

49.7

50.2

1327.9

1335.3

1336.7

1347.3

1346.0

1353.2

Retail Sales (Billions $)

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

270.6

272.3

274.8

278.6

281.9

285.9

289.8

294.0

298.4

302.7

307.4

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

232.0

232.7

233.9

235.9

237.5

239.7

241.8

244.0

246.4

248.7

251.3

*Quarterly at an annual rate

22

Florida & Metro Forecast

1356.7 1360.76 1365.76 1367.79 1373.62

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

423.8

457.5

478.6

495.5

514.4

565.0

604.1

647.6

687.2

Wages & Salaries

210.1

228.4

239.2

247.1

258.7

279.1

302.2

325.1

342.8

Other Labor Income

42.5

45.1

47.6

51.8

56.2

61.5

67.4

72.4

77.5

Nonfarm

25.9

29.2

27.6

29.0

30.7

32.7

37.3

39.2

40.4

2.0

0.8

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.4

0.3

0.1

0.3

109.4

117.9

122.9

122.0

120.1

137.1

142.9

155.4

166.9

Transfer Payments

63.7

67.9

74.4

80.4

85.5

94.8

98.7

104.0

110.8

Social Insurance

31.1

33.3

35.5

37.1

39.1

42.2

46.4

50.4

53.2

Farm Property Income

Billions 2000 Dollars Personal Income

434.3

457.5

468.8

478.5

487.1

521.3

541.8

565.3

588.5

Wages & Salaries

215.3

228.4

234.3

238.6

245.0

257.5

271.1

283.8

293.5

Other Labor Income

43.5

45.1

46.6

50.1

53.2

56.8

60.5

63.2

66.4

Nonfarm

26.5

29.2

27.1

28.1

29.1

30.2

33.5

34.2

34.6

2.1

0.8

0.9

0.7

0.7

0.4

0.3

0.1

0.3

112.1

117.9

120.4

117.8

113.8

126.5

128.1

135.7

142.9

Transfer Payments

65.3

67.9

72.8

77.6

80.9

87.5

88.5

90.8

94.8

Social Insurance

31.9

33.3

34.8

35.9

37.0

39.0

41.6

44.0

45.6

1253.3

1314.3

1405.5

1302.3

1397.4

1443.6

1450.1

1416.8

1335.4

Retail Sales (Billions $)

174.6

184.5

190.4

196.6

205.7

225.6

244.0

261.4

271.3

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

179.0

184.5

186.5

189.9

194.8

208.2

218.9

228.2

232.3

Farm Property Income

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

23

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

730.6

782.9

839.7

894.1

946.9

1001.1

1059.2

1121.5

1187.5

1257.5

Wages & Salaries

359.9

382.3

406.6

429.4

451.8

474.1

497.7

522.5

548.1

574.9

Other Labor Income

82.1

87.1

92.6

97.9

103.1

108.5

114.2

120.2

126.4

132.7

Nonfarm

43.1

46.4

49.7

53.0

56.5

59.9

63.5

67.3

71.4

75.7

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

Property Income

180.7

197.2

215.1

231.2

244.8

259.4

276.1

294.6

314.6

336.2

Transfer Payments

119.1

127.6

137.4

148.4

160.4

172.7

185.6

199.3

214.1

229.9

56.3

60.0

64.2

68.3

72.3

76.4

80.7

85.3

90.2

95.3

Farm

Social Insurance

Billions 2000 Dollars Personal Income

614.1

644.8

678.3

708.1

735.5

762.8

792.2

823.2

855.2

888.3

Wages & Salaries

302.5

314.8

328.5

340.1

350.9

361.3

372.2

383.5

394.7

406.1

Other Labor Income

69.0

71.8

74.8

77.5

80.1

82.7

85.4

88.2

91.0

93.7

Nonfarm

36.3

38.2

40.2

42.0

43.9

45.7

47.5

49.4

51.4

53.5

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

Property Income

151.8

162.4

173.8

183.1

190.1

197.7

206.5

216.2

226.6

237.5

Transfer Payments

100.1

105.1

111.0

117.5

124.5

131.6

138.8

146.3

154.2

162.4

47.4

49.4

51.8

54.1

56.2

58.2

60.4

62.6

64.9

67.3

1350.8

1367.0

1398.9

1422.1

1448.0

1455.1

1463.3

1467.2

1465.9

1473.4

Retail Sales (Billions $)

284.0

300.6

318.9

336.7

353.3

369.8

387.6

406.5

426.1

447.3

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

238.7

247.6

257.6

266.7

274.4

281.8

289.9

298.3

306.9

316.0

Farm

Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

24

Florida & Metro Forecast

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

1331.5

1408.2

1488.9

1571.7

1660.0

1753.5

1851.9

1956.4

2066.4

2179.8

Wages & Salaries

603.3

633.0

665.1

697.9

733.9

772.3

813.0

855.9

900.5

946.0

Other Labor Income

139.4

146.2

153.4

160.7

168.4

176.8

185.6

194.9

204.5

214.3

80.6

85.9

91.7

97.7

104.0

110.4

116.9

123.6

130.8

138.1

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

Property Income

358.7

381.4

404.1

427.2

450.7

475.0

500.0

526.8

555.3

584.5

Transfer Payments

246.8

264.9

284.0

304.2

325.6

348.3

372.8

398.9

426.8

456.4

Social Insurance

100.8

106.8

113.3

120.2

127.0

134.0

141.2

148.8

156.9

165.2

Nonfarm Farm

Billions 2000 Dollars Personal Income

922.6

957.3

993.0

1028.6

1065.9

1104.2

1143.5

1184.1

1225.8

1267.3

Wages & Salaries

418.0

430.3

443.6

456.7

471.2

486.3

502.0

518.0

534.2

550.0

Other Labor Income

96.6

99.4

102.3

105.2

108.2

111.3

114.6

118.0

121.3

124.6

Nonfarm

55.8

58.4

61.2

64.0

66.8

69.5

72.2

74.8

77.6

80.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.4

Property Income

248.6

259.2

269.5

279.6

289.4

299.1

308.7

318.8

329.4

339.8

Transfer Payments

171.0

180.1

189.4

199.1

209.0

219.4

230.2

241.4

253.1

265.3

69.9

72.6

75.6

78.7

81.5

84.4

87.2

90.1

93.1

96.1

1493.7

1505.4

1520.5

1529.2

1541.1

1551.0

1561.7

1574.8

1588.7

1598.6

Retail Sales (Billions $)

470.0

493.2

517.8

543.4

570.6

599.6

630.4

663.2

697.8

733.9

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

325.7

335.3

345.3

355.6

366.4

377.6

389.3

401.4

414.0

426.6

Farm

Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

25

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

2296.9

2419.4

2550.4

2687.6

2832.1

2983.2

3145.0

3316.9

3501.0

Wages & Salaries

992.5

1041.3

1093.8

1148.3

1206.2

1266.9

1332.1

1400.7

1474.3

Other Labor Income

224.4

234.8

246.0

257.8

270.3

283.5

297.8

312.8

328.8

Nonfarm

145.7

153.5

162.1

170.7

179.7

188.9

198.7

208.8

219.4

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

Property Income

614.6

646.0

679.5

714.5

750.6

787.7

827.4

870.2

916.1

Transfer Payments

487.5

520.1

554.6

591.4

630.5

671.8

715.8

763.0

813.7

Social Insurance

173.8

182.8

192.3

202.3

212.9

224.0

235.8

248.2

261.5

Farm

Billions 2000 Dollars Personal Income

1308.7

1350.7

1394.9

1440.3

1487.0

1535.0

1585.6

1638.1

1692.9

Wages & Salaries

565.5

581.3

598.2

615.3

633.3

651.9

671.6

691.8

712.9

Other Labor Income

127.8

131.1

134.5

138.1

141.9

145.9

150.1

154.5

159.0

83.0

85.7

88.6

91.5

94.3

97.2

100.2

103.1

106.1

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

Property Income

350.2

360.6

371.6

382.9

394.1

405.3

417.2

429.8

443.0

Transfer Payments

277.8

290.4

303.3

316.9

331.0

345.7

360.9

376.8

393.5

99.0

102.0

105.2

108.4

111.8

115.2

118.9

122.6

126.5

1608.3

1620.0

1637.2

1652.3

1665.0

1677.1

1692.5

1708.9

1719.2

Retail Sales (Billions $)

771.7

811.8

854.8

901.1

949.9

1001.9

1057.9

1117.5

1181.7

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

439.7

453.2

467.5

482.9

498.8

515.5

533.4

551.9

571.4

Nonfarm Farm

Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

26

Florida & Metro Forecast

Florida Federal Employ Ju n e 2 0 0 7

(Thousa

150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 20

C H A RTS

F l o r i d a F OR E C A ST

160.0

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate (percent)

6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0%

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate

Florida Gross State Product (percent ch. year ago)

12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%

28

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 FL Gross State Product

Florida & Metro Forecast

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Housing Starts 300.0

(thousands)

8.5% 8.0%

250.0

7.5% 7.0%

200.0

6.5% 6.0%

150.0 100.0

5.5% 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 Total Private Housing Starts 30 year Mortgage Rates

5.0%

Florida Personal Income 10%

(percent ch. year ago)

8% 6% 4% 2% 0%

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

29

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations (percent ch. year ago)

30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20%

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034

Florida Real Gross State Product (percent ch. year ago)

9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1%

30

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034

Florida & Metro Forecast

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Employment 14000.0

(Thousands)

12000.0 10000.0 8000.0 6000.0 4000.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 Wage & Salary Employment

Florida Education & Health Services Employment 1500.0 1400.0 1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0 700.0

(Thousands)

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

31

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Federal Government Employment (Thousands)

160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034

Florida Financial Activities Employment (Thousands)

800.0 700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0

32

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034

Florida & Metro Forecast

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Information Employment 280.0

(Thousands)

260.0 240.0 220.0 200.0 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034

Florida Manufacturing Employment 480.0

(Thousands)

460.0 440.0 420.0 400.0 380.0 360.0 340.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

33

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Construction Employment (Thousands)

1200.0 1000.0 800.0 600.0 400.0 200.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034

Florida Professional & Business Services Employment (Thousands)

4000.0 3500.0 3000.0 2500.0 2000.0 1500.0 1000.0 500.0

34

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034

Florida & Metro Forecast

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida State & Local Government Employment 1300.0

(Thousands)

1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0 700.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034

Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment 2400.0

(Thousands)

2200.0 2000.0 1800.0 1600.0 1400.0 1200.0

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

35

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Unemployment Rate (percent)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 Unemployment Rate

Florida Population (Thousands)

30000.0 28000.0 26000.0 24000.0 22000.0 20000.0 18000.0 16000.0 14000.0

36

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034

Florida & Metro Forecast

F l o r i d a New s Summa r ie s Gasoline breaks $3 mark in Florida • The second quarter of 2007 saw the average price of a gallon of gasoline rise above the $3 mark across Florida.

• According to AAA, political unrest in Nigeria, Saudi oil field attacks, and a weakening dollar are all factors contributing to the rise.

Source: South Florida Business Journal, April 30, 2007 USDA citrus forecast shows reductions for grapefruit, oranges • The USDA has forecasted a decline in both the number of grapefruits and oranges this season, which could have an adverse affect on the Florida citrus industry, which contributes $9.1 billion to the state’s economy.

• The reductions include a decrease of 100,000 oranges and 1,000,000 grapefruit.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, May 11, 2007 Tourism officials woo in-state travelers • As gas prices and worries about the summer storm seasons rise, tourism officials worry about potentially low turnouts this summer.

• To overcome the expected decrease from out-of-state travelers, focus is shifting to emphasize in-state travel to Floridians in order to overcome storm and gas concerns.

Source: Miami Herald, May 22, 2007 State’s gender pay gap near U.S. bottom • According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Florida ranks 44th nationally in gender pay gap.

• The study found that the median salary for collegeeducated women is only 70% of what it is for collegeeducated men.

Source: Orlando Sentinel, April 24, 2007 Crist proposes property tax reform • In the face of exorbitant property taxes throughout Florida, Governor Crist has proposed a number of reform measures designed to alleviate homeowners.

• Crist’s reforms calls for doubling the homestead exemption and an exemption of the first $25,000 of business property from the tangible personal property tax, which would result in savings of $34 billion for homeowners over the next five years.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, April 27, 2007 House adopts Senate bill to deregulate cable TV in Florida • The Florida House and Senate voted to adopt a bill that would deregulate cable television in Florida and allow telephone companies to offer cable television in addition to Internet and phone services.

• The measure is expected to result in a decrease in the costs of these services for Floridians because competition will drive rates down.

Source: Sun Sentinel, May 1, 2007 Gov. Crist signs penny-pinching $71.5-billion budget due to housing slowdown • Governor Crist signed a budget totaling $71.5 billion in May, vetoing more than $400 million in proposed expenditures, a move that highlights the stagnant local economy and represents an attempt to wean local governments off costly expenditures that might no longer have funding after property tax reform.

• Items in the more than $400 million veto include: 5% tuition increases for Florida state universities, cultural and transportation projects throughout Florida, and several measures for hurricane preparedness, among others.

Source: Sun Sentinel, May 24, 2007 Going green could mean tax breaks • In May, the Florida House and Senate passed a $62million plan with the intent of weaning the state off of fossil fuels and encouraging the use of alternative energy sources and environmentally friendly alternatives.

• The bill includes sales tax breaks for businesses involved in the production and distribution of biofuels, property tax breaks for Floridians who purchase solar panels for their home, more stringent green building standards, continued research into the future of fossil-fuel consumption, and potential alternatives for the future of Florida.

Source: Lakeland Ledger, May 4, 2007 Second quarter foreclosures continue across Florida • Foreclosures continued to plague the Florida housing market throughout the second quarter, and Florida ranked second in foreclosures in March and April.

• The foreclosure rate is seen as a consequence of a number of factors, including high property taxes and insurance rates, the cooling of an overheated housing market, and the effect of rate increases on lenders who mortgaged their homes using risky adjustable rate mortgages.

• The foreclosed homes are increasing the supply of housing available on the market, which further drives down home prices.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, May 15, 2007

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

37

Ju n e 2 0 0 7

Metros

F l o r i d a F OR E C A ST

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Deltona – Daytona – Ormond Beach MSA is comprised only of Volusia County. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway, which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500.

In Deltona-Daytona-Ormond Beach, personal income is expected to grow, on average, 6.8% over the next three years.

Professional and business services will be the fastest growing sector, experiencing an average change of 3.6% over the next three years. Additionally, the information sector and educational and health services sector will both experience strong growth with average growth rates of more than 2%.

The region will experience average growth of 1.6% in employment and 1.9% in population, but is expected to have an unemployment rate of 3.7%.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 496,575 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 253,299 in December 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 7,654 unemployed people. (Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Volusia County Schools – 6,816 employees • Halifax Medical Center – 3,136 employees • Volusia County – 2,600 employees • City of Daytona Beach – 1,159 employees • Memorial Hospital – 1,000 employees • Embry Riddle Aeronautical University – 900 employees • Memorial Hospital West Volusia – 853 employees • Sherwood Medical – 850 employees • The Daytona Beach News-Journal – 829 employees • Daytona Beach Community College – 743 employees Source: Southeast Volusia Chamber of Commerce

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Home sales and asking prices shrink in Volusia, Flagler • Citizens of Volusia and Flagler counties experienced a slowing housing market during the early months of 2007. The housing market is now absent of investment buyers, resulting in a market in which the number of houses sold has declined, and the median home price has decreased by 8 percent.

Source: Daytona Beach News-Journal, Feb. 28, 2007 Daytona Beach air traffic soars • There has been a marked surge in passengers at Daytona Beach International Airport due to the addition of Air Tran Airways. Airport passengers during February were 41 percent higher than last year.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, March 20, 2007 New Smyrna Beach Yacht Club to float a lot of people’s boats • Coronado Shores LLC plans to renovate the New Smyrna Beach Marina, rename the marina the New Smyrna Yacht Club, add 260 new dry dock storage spaces, and renovate 15 existing wet slips to accommodate large boats.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

39

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

• The renovation, which seeks to attract a large customer base from Orlando’s I-4 corridor, will also include a lounge, cocktail bars, swimming pool and spa, among other amenities that will be available to members.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, March 16, 2007 Daytona Beach celebrates A1A beautification • The first stretch of the A1A beautification project in Daytona Beach was just completed, costing approximately $9 million. The re-enhancement project for A1A was recommended nearly 10 years ago by economic leaders due to the profound impact that A1A’s appearance has on the local tourism industry.

Source: Orlando Sentinel, April 5, 2007 Stetson plans $7.7 million projects • The planning stages for two new projects, totaling $7.7 million, at Stetson University in Deland are underway. The projects will include the expansion of the university’s Sage Hall Science Center as well as the new 5,000-squarefoot Homer and Dolly Hand Art Center.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, May 2, 2007 Local condo projects on the rise • A recent city advisory board meeting saw the approval of three major condominium projects for the Daytona Beach skyline, totaling almost 900 condo units, and two others more than twenty stories high.

Source: Daytona Beach News-Journal, May 2, 2007 Speedway adds vroom to project • Daytona Beach-based International Speedway Corp. has recently announced plans for a $250 million complex slated for the area immediately across from the Daytona International Speedway.

The new entertainment complex, “Daytona Live,” will feature a movie theater, restaurants, shops, housing units, a hotel, and a performance area with an outdoor stage.

Source: Orlando Sentinel, May 9, 2007

40

Florida & Metro Forecast

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

280.0 260.0 240.0 220.0 200.0 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product

Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income

(Millions 2000 $) 40000.0 35000.0 30000.0 25000.0 20000.0 15000.0 10000.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 5000.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 FL Unemployment Rate Real Gross Metro Product Deltona Unemployment Rate (percent)

(Thousands)

8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Deltona Payroll Employment

0.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

41

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast* 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

15.6 6.5 5.9 9.7 13.4 4.6 30.8 26.4 33.2 4.1

15.8 6.2 6 9.8 13.5 4.6 31.1 26.6 33.4 4.2

16.1 6.5 6 10 13.7 4.2 31.5 26.8 33.7 3.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2009Q4

16.3 6.4 6.1 10.2 13.8 4.5 31.8 27 33.9 2.6

16.6 6.6 6.2 10.4 14 4.8 32.2 27.2 34.1 3

16.9 6.9 6.3 10.7 14.2 5 32.6 27.4 34.4 3

17.2 7 6.3 10.9 14.3 4.9 33 27.6 34.7 3.2

17.5 7 6.4 11.1 14.5 4.9 33.4 27.7 35 3.3

17.8 7.1 6.5 11.3 14.7 5 33.9 28 35.3 3.4

18.1 7.3 6.6 11.5 14.9 5.1 34.4 28.2 35.6 3.5

18.5 7.5 6.7 11.8 15.1 5.3 34.8 28.5 36 3.6

177 1 10.8 1 166.2 1 14.4 -2.8 32.9 -0.6 5 25.7 2.2 3 5.5 7.7 -0.5 21.4 0.9 31.9 3.3 21.5 -0.1 8.8 4.6 1.4 -0.4 23.2 2.2

177.3 0.8 10.7 1.3 166.6 0.8 14.2 -2.8 33 0.5 5 25.7 2.2 3 3.5 7.7 -1.2 21.6 0 32.1 2.6 21.5 0.6 8.8 4.3 1.4 0.6 23.3 1.3

178.1 0.8 10.7 0.6 167.4 0.9 14.2 -3.1 33.2 1.4 5 25.9 2.2 3 0.2 7.7 -0.9 21.8 2.6 32.2 0.9 21.7 1.2 8.8 2.4 1.4 2.7 23.3 0.6

178.8 1.3 10.6 -1.4 168.2 1.5 14.1 -3 33.5 2.3 5.1 26.2 2.3 3 -0.3 7.7 0.5 22 3.9 32.2 1.2 21.9 2.6 8.8 1 1.4 2 23.4 1.4

179.7 1.5 10.6 -1.5 169.1 1.7 14.1 -1.9 33.7 2.6 5.1 26.3 2.3 3.1 0.5 7.7 0.3 22.2 4.1 32.4 1.4 22 2.4 8.9 0.6 1.4 2 23.5 1.5

180.6 1.8 10.6 -1.1 170 2 14.2 -0.4 34 3 5.2 26.5 2.3 3.1 1.8 7.8 0.5 22.5 4.4 32.6 1.8 22 2 8.9 0.3 1.4 1.1 23.6 1.5

181.5 1.9 10.6 -0.8 170.9 2.1 14.2 -0.2 34.2 3 5.2 26.7 2.3 3.1 3.6 7.8 0.7 22.7 4.4 32.8 2 22.1 1.7 8.9 0.2 1.4 0.5 23.7 1.5

182.3 2 10.6 -0.5 171.8 2.1 14.2 0.3 34.4 2.6 5.3 26.8 2.4 3.1 4.2 7.8 1.3 23 4.5 33 2.5 22.2 1.4 8.9 0.4 1.4 -4.5 23.8 1.6

183.4 2 10.6 -0.1 172.8 2.2 14.3 1.1 34.6 2.5 5.3 26.9 2.4 3.2 3.9 7.8 1.4 23.3 4.8 33.2 2.4 22.2 0.9 8.9 0.4 1.4 -1.6 23.9 1.6

184.3 2.1 10.6 0.1 173.7 2.2 14.4 1.7 34.8 2.4 5.4 27 2.4 3.2 3.7 7.9 1.5 23.6 4.7 33.3 2 22.2 1.2 8.9 0.4 1.5 2 24 1.6

185.2 2.1 10.6 0.3 174.6 2.2 14.5 2.8 34.9 2.1 5.4 27.1 2.4 3.2 3.3 7.9 1.8 23.8 4.7 33.4 1.7 22.3 1.1 8.9 0.7 1.5 6.4 24.1 1.6

13960.6 506 1.9 252.7 2.4 3.5 2907 2261 646

14060.9 508.1 1.9 254.2 2.2 3.7 3154 2443 712

14179.2 510.5 1.8 255.5 1.3 3.7 3387 2632 754

14307.5 512.8 1.8 256.8 2.3 3.7 3637 2834 803

14473 515.2 1.8 258.1 2.1 3.7 3836 3008 829

14632.4 517.8 1.9 259.4 2.1 3.7 3985 3125 859

14796.8 520.3 1.9 260.6 2 3.8 4133 3246 887

14921.7 522.8 2 261.7 1.9 3.8 4228 3322 907

15093.6 525.4 2 262.8 1.8 3.8 4295 3385 909

15258.2 527.9 1.9 263.9 1.7 3.8 4355 3444 911

15421.7 530.4 1.9 265 1.7 3.8 4403 3501 902

*Quarterly at an annual rate

42

2009Q3

Florida & Metro Forecast

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

9.6 4.7 3.6 6 9.9 3 21.9 22.5 24.9 4.9

10.4 7.7 3.9 6.5 10.4 5.1 23.3 23.3 26 4.7

10.9 5.5 4 6.9 10.7 3.3 24.2 23.7 26.7 2.5

11.4 3.7 4.3 7.1 11 2.3 24.7 23.8 27.7 4

11.8 4 4.6 7.2 11.2 2 25.2 23.9 28.8 3.8

13 9.8 5 8 12 7 27.1 25 29.9 3.8

13.8 6.6 5.3 8.5 12.4 3.6 28.3 25.4 30.7 2.9

14.8 6.7 5.7 9.1 12.9 3.8 29.6 25.9 32.1 4.4

15.7 6.4 5.9 9.8 13.4 4.4 31 26.5 33.3 3.8

16.8 6.8 6.2 10.5 14.1 4.8 32.4 27.3 34.3 2.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

143.7 1.3 10.4 -6.8 133.3 2 7.9 0.8 30.3 2.1 4.3 23.5 2.6 3 36.6 6.8 0 13.3 3.8 25.3 3.4 18.8 -1.1 6.8 1.6 1.3 5.3 19.6 -1.1

147.5 2.7 10.9 5.1 136.6 2.5 8.3 5.4 31.3 3.4 4.4 24.2 2.7 3.1 4.1 6.8 -0.6 13.3 0 25.9 2.3 19.2 2.3 7.1 5.1 1.5 12.5 19.9 1.3

150.3 1.9 10.3 -5.6 140 2.5 8.8 5.8 31 -1 4.4 23.9 2.7 3.4 7.4 6.6 -3.4 15.8 18.1 26.2 1.2 19.4 0.9 7.1 -0.1 1.3 -10.1 20.4 2.5

153.1 1.9 9.6 -7.3 143.6 2.6 9.6 9.3 30.8 -0.6 4.7 23.6 2.6 3 -10.4 6.4 -2.3 16.4 3.8 28.2 7.7 19.6 0.8 7.6 6.8 1.4 2.5 20.6 0.9

158 3.1 9.4 -1.5 148.5 3.5 10.5 8.7 31.4 1.6 4.6 24.3 2.5 2.8 -6.3 6.5 1.2 17.4 6.3 30.1 6.7 20 2.2 7.8 2.9 1.4 2.5 20.7 0.5

164.8 4.3 9.8 3.9 155 4.4 11.9 14 31.9 1.7 4.7 25 2.2 2.8 -2.1 6.9 7.2 19.1 9.8 30.7 1.9 21 5.3 8.2 4 1.4 0 21.1 2.1

171.3 3.9 10.2 4.3 161 3.9 13.8 15.7 33.1 3.7 4.8 26 2.3 2.7 -2.7 7.3 5.5 20.6 7.7 30.5 -0.7 21.7 2.9 8.2 0.1 1.4 1.2 21.8 3.6

175.5 2.5 10.6 3.8 164.8 2.4 14.7 6.8 33 -0.4 4.9 25.8 2.2 2.9 7.7 7.8 5.8 21.1 2.5 31.2 2.4 21.5 -0.8 8.5 3.9 1.4 -0.6 22.9 4.7

177.2 1 10.7 1.1 166.5 1 14.4 -2.6 33 0 5 25.7 2.2 3 4 7.7 -0.6 21.5 1.9 32 2.6 21.5 0.2 8.8 3.7 1.4 0.2 23.2 1.6

180.1 1.7 10.6 -1.2 169.5 1.8 14.2 -1.4 33.9 2.7 5.2 26.4 2.3 3.1 1.4 7.7 0.5 22.4 4.2 32.5 1.6 22 2.2 8.9 0.5 1.4 1.4 23.5 1.5

9544.7 439.3 1.4 181.5 0.2 3.2 3903 3416 487

9858.1 445.8 1.5 209.7 15.5 3.4 3641 3195 446

10235.9 452.5 1.5 214.6 2.3 4.3 4506 3441 1065

10626.1 460.2 1.7 219.6 2.3 5.4 4891 4220 671

11198.7 468.7 1.9 226.5 3.1 5.1 6324 5077 1248

12005.9 479.4 2.3 233.4 3.1 4.5 6319 4868 1451

12974.1 488.9 2 240.6 3.1 3.7 6455 5208 1247

13702.9 497.8 1.8 248 3.1 3.2 4328 3295 1032

14016.9 507.1 1.9 253.4 2.2 3.6 3032 2370 662

14552.5 516.5 1.9 258.7 2.1 3.7 3898 3053 844

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

43

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

18 7.2 6.6 11.4 14.8 5.1 34.1 28.1 35.5 3.5

19.3 7.4 6.9 12.4 15.6 5.3 35.9 29 36.8 3.7

20.6 6.8 7.3 13.3 16.3 4.7 37.8 29.9 38.1 3.6

21.8 6 7.7 14.2 17 3.9 39.4 30.6 39.5 3.6

23.1 5.6 8 15 17.6 3.6 41 31.3 40.8 3.5

24.4 5.8 8.4 16 18.3 3.8 42.8 32 42.2 3.4

25.9 6 8.8 17.1 19 4 44.8 32.9 43.6 3.3

27.4 6.1 9.1 18.3 19.8 4.1 46.8 33.7 45 3.3

29.1 6.2 9.5 19.6 20.6 4.2 49.1 34.7 46.5 3.3

30.9 6.1 10 21 21.4 4.1 51.4 35.6 48.1 3.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

44

Florida & Metro Forecast

183.8 2 10.6 -0.1 173.2 2.2 14.4 1.5 34.7 2.4 5.3 27 2.4 3.2 3.8 7.9 1.5 23.4 4.7 33.2 2.2 22.2 1.2 8.9 0.5 1.4 0.6 23.9 1.6

187.6 2 10.6 0.4 176.9 2.1 14.8 3 35.3 1.7 5.5 27.3 2.5 3.3 3 8 2 24.4 4.4 33.7 1.6 22.5 1.1 9 0.9 1.6 11.7 24.3 1.6

191 1.8 10.6 0.2 180.3 1.9 15.1 2.1 35.8 1.4 5.6 27.5 2.6 3.4 2.4 8.2 1.7 25.6 4.5 34.4 2.1 22.8 1.1 9.1 1.3 1.5 -8.6 24.6 1.3

193.6 1.4 10.6 0 183 1.5 15.2 0.8 36.1 0.9 5.8 27.7 2.6 3.4 2.1 8.2 0.6 26.5 3.7 35 1.7 22.9 0.6 9.2 1.1 1.5 1.3 25 1.4

195.7 1.1 10.6 -0.2 185.1 1.1 15.3 0.3 36.4 0.8 5.9 27.8 2.7 3.5 2 8.2 0.4 27.4 3.4 35.4 1 22.9 0 9.3 0.9 1.5 1.4 25.3 1.3

197.8 1 10.6 -0.2 187.1 1.1 15.4 0.8 36.6 0.6 6 27.8 2.7 3.6 1.6 8.3 0.3 28.4 3.6 35.7 0.9 22.8 -0.3 9.4 0.8 1.5 1.4 25.6 1.3

199.9 1.1 10.6 -0.1 189.3 1.2 15.6 1.2 36.7 0.4 6.1 27.8 2.8 3.6 1.7 8.3 0.4 29.4 3.7 36 1 22.7 -0.4 9.5 1 1.5 1.3 25.9 1.1

202.1 1.1 10.6 0.1 191.5 1.2 15.8 1.4 36.9 0.5 6.3 27.7 2.9 3.7 1.7 8.3 0.3 30.5 3.7 36.3 0.9 22.6 -0.4 9.6 1.1 1.6 1.2 26.2 1.1

204.4 1.1 10.6 0.2 193.8 1.2 16 1.3 37 0.4 6.4 27.6 3 3.7 1.5 8.3 0 31.7 3.9 36.7 1.1 22.5 -0.7 9.7 1.2 1.6 1.3 26.5 1.2

206.8 1.2 10.6 0 196.1 1.2 16.1 0.9 37.2 0.5 6.6 27.6 3 3.8 1.2 8.3 0.4 32.9 3.8 37.2 1.3 22.3 -0.6 9.8 1 1.6 1.3 26.8 1

15173.8 526.6 2 263.4 1.8 3.8 4320 3413 907

15809.1 536.8 1.9 267.8 1.7 3.9 4389 3519 870

16378.6 545.8 1.7 272.1 1.6 3.9 4364 3572 791

16923 554.3 1.6 276.2 1.5 4 4280 3509 771

17467.8 562.5 1.5 280.2 1.4 4.1 4230 3477 753

18049.7 570 1.3 283.9 1.3 4.2 4267 3490 777

18661.3 577.7 1.3 287.5 1.3 4.3 4324 3516 808

19289.4 585.9 1.4 291.1 1.3 4.3 4322 3496 826

19940.8 593.6 1.3 294.7 1.2 4.4 4280 3433 846

20624 601.5 1.3 298.2 1.2 4.4 4230 3370 860

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

32.8 5.9 10.4 22.3 22.3 3.9 53.7 36.5 49.7 3.4

34.7 5.8 10.9 23.7 23.1 3.8 56 37.3 51.4 3.4

36.6 5.6 11.4 25.2 24 3.7 58.3 38.2 53.1 3.3

38.7 5.7 12 26.7 24.8 3.7 60.7 39 55 3.5

40.9 5.6 12.6 28.3 25.7 3.6 63.3 39.9 56.9 3.5

43.2 5.6 13.2 30 26.7 3.6 66 40.7 58.8 3.4

45.6 5.6 13.8 31.8 27.6 3.5 68.8 41.6 60.9 3.5

48.1 5.6 14.5 33.7 28.6 3.5 71.7 42.5 63 3.5

50.8 5.5 15.2 35.6 29.5 3.4 74.6 43.4 65.2 3.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

209 1.1 10.6 -0.3 198.5 1.2 16.2 0.3 37.5 0.7 6.8 27.6 3.1 3.8 1.2 8.4 0.7 34 3.3 37.7 1.3 22.3 -0.3 9.9 1.1 1.6 1.5 27 0.9

211.8 1.3 10.5 -0.5 201.2 1.4 16.3 0.5 37.8 0.8 6.9 27.7 3.1 3.9 1.4 8.5 0.9 35.2 3.4 38.2 1.4 22.2 -0.2 10 1.3 1.8 12.2 27.3 0.9

214.3 1.2 10.5 -0.4 203.8 1.3 16.4 0.7 38.2 1 7.1 27.8 3.2 3.9 1.9 8.5 0.8 36.3 3.2 38.8 1.5 22.2 -0.1 10.2 1.6 1.7 -8.7 27.5 0.8

217.2 1.4 10.5 -0.4 206.8 1.5 16.5 0.9 38.6 1.1 7.3 28 3.2 4 1.9 8.6 0.9 37.5 3.4 39.4 1.5 22.2 -0.1 10.4 1.7 1.7 1.3 27.7 0.8

220.2 1.4 10.4 -0.4 209.8 1.5 16.7 1.1 39.1 1.2 7.5 28.1 3.3 4.1 2 8.7 0.8 38.8 3.3 40 1.4 22.2 -0.1 10.5 1.7 1.7 1.3 28 0.9

223.2 1.4 10.4 -0.4 212.9 1.5 16.9 1.3 39.5 1.1 7.7 28.3 3.4 4.2 1.9 8.8 0.8 40.1 3.5 40.5 1.4 22.1 -0.2 10.7 1.7 1.7 1.3 28.2 0.8

226.2 1.3 10.3 -0.4 215.9 1.4 17.2 1.7 39.9 1.1 7.9 28.4 3.4 4.3 1.8 8.8 1 41.4 3.1 41 1.2 22.1 -0.2 10.9 1.6 1.8 1.3 28.5 0.9

229.2 1.3 10.3 -0.3 218.9 1.4 17.6 2.2 40.4 1.1 8.1 28.6 3.5 4.3 2 8.9 0.9 42.6 2.8 41.5 1.1 22.1 0 11.1 1.7 1.8 1.2 28.7 0.8

232.1 1.3 10.3 -0.2 221.8 1.3 18 2 40.8 1.2 8.3 28.8 3.6 4.4 2.1 9 0.9 43.6 2.4 41.9 1.1 22.1 0 11.3 1.8 1.8 1.2 28.9 0.8

21318.4 610.4 1.5 301.6 1.1 4.4 4211 3328 883

22056.4 619.2 1.4 305.6 1.3 4.4 4183 3281 903

22768.3 628 1.4 309.9 1.4 4.5 4114 3218 896

23534.5 636.8 1.4 314.2 1.4 4.5 4060 3162 898

24313.8 645.5 1.4 318.5 1.4 4.6 3993 3101 893

25123.8 654.2 1.3 322.8 1.4 4.6 3994 3095 900

25969.7 662.9 1.3 327.3 1.4 4.7 4029 3124 905

26822.5 671.7 1.3 331.9 1.4 4.7 4052 3128 923

27662.8 680.6 1.3 336.6 1.4 4.8 4001 3066 936

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

45

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

53.5 5.4 15.9 37.7 30.5 3.3 77.6 44.2 67.4 3.4

56.4 5.3 16.6 39.8 31.5 3.2 80.7 45.1 69.6 3.3

59.4 5.4 17.4 42 32.5 3.2 84.1 46 72 3.4

62.6 5.3 18.2 44.4 33.5 3.2 87.5 46.9 74.3 3.2

65.9 5.3 19.1 46.8 34.6 3.2 91.1 47.8 76.8 3.4

69.3 5.2 20 49.4 35.7 3.1 94.8 48.8 79.3 3.2

73 5.3 20.9 52.1 36.8 3.2 98.7 49.8 81.8 3.3

76.9 5.3 21.9 55 38 3.2 102.9 50.8 84.6 3.3

81 5.4 22.9 58.1 39.2 3.2 107.3 51.9 87.4 3.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

46

Florida & Metro Forecast

234.9 1.2 10.2 -0.4 224.7 1.3 18.3 1.9 41.3 1.3 8.5 29 3.7 4.5 2.1 9.1 0.8 44.5 2.1 42.4 1.1 22.1 0 11.5 1.8 1.8 1.2 29.1 0.7

237.8 1.2 10.2 -0.5 227.6 1.3 18.6 1.9 41.9 1.3 8.7 29.2 3.8 4.6 2.1 9.2 0.9 45.5 2.2 42.9 1.1 22.2 0.2 11.6 1.7 1.8 1.2 29.3 0.7

240.9 1.3 10.1 -0.5 230.8 1.4 19.1 2.3 42.3 1.1 8.9 29.4 3.8 4.7 2.2 9.3 1 46.6 2.4 43.3 1.1 22.1 -0.1 11.8 1.6 1.9 4.3 29.5 0.7

244.3 1.4 10.1 -0.2 234.1 1.5 19.6 2.8 42.8 1.2 9.1 29.6 3.9 4.8 2.4 9.3 1 47.8 2.7 43.8 1.1 22.2 0.1 12 1.7 1.9 -1.6 29.8 0.7

247.7 1.4 10.1 -0.2 237.6 1.5 20.1 2.6 43.3 1.2 9.3 29.8 3.9 5 2.6 9.4 1 49.1 2.6 44.3 1.2 22.1 -0.1 12.2 1.8 1.9 1.2 30 0.7

251.2 1.4 10.1 -0.2 241.1 1.5 20.6 2.3 43.9 1.2 9.5 30.1 4 5.1 2.6 9.5 1 50.5 2.8 44.8 1.1 22.2 0.1 12.4 1.6 1.9 1.2 30.2 0.7

254.7 1.4 10 -0.3 244.6 1.5 21 2.3 44.3 1 9.6 30.2 4 5.2 2.6 9.6 1 52.1 3.1 45.2 1 22.1 -0.2 12.6 1.6 2 1.2 30.4 0.7

258.1 1.3 10 -0.2 248.1 1.4 21.5 2.1 44.7 1 9.8 30.4 4.1 5.4 2.5 9.7 0.9 53.6 3.1 45.6 0.8 22.1 -0.1 12.8 1.6 2 1.2 30.6 0.7

261.6 1.3 10 -0.1 251.5 1.4 21.9 2.1 45.1 0.8 10 30.6 4.1 5.5 2.5 9.8 0.9 55.4 3.2 45.9 0.8 22 -0.4 13 1.5 2 1.2 30.8 0.7

28506.6 689.5 1.3 341.4 1.4 4.8 3908 2970 939

29384.8 698.2 1.3 346.3 1.4 4.9 3867 2930 937

30315.9 706.7 1.2 351.2 1.4 4.9 3877 2943 935

31261.1 715.1 1.2 356.2 1.4 4.9 3858 2926 933

32221.2 723.5 1.2 361.3 1.4 5 3768 2845 923

33223 731.7 1.1 366.4 1.4 5 3719 2809 910

34286.8 739.6 1.1 371.6 1.4 5.1 3710 2814 896

35379.8 747.5 1.1 376.8 1.4 5.1 3705 2827 878

36518.4 755.1 1 382.1 1.4 5.1 3703 2843 859

G ai n e s vi l l e

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist counties and is located in the northcentral portion of the state. This metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history museum.

The Gainesville metropolitan area is expected to experience an average growth rate of 5.8% over the next three years.

The professional and business services sector is expected to experience the strongest growth rate at an average change of 4.7% over the next three years, and the leisure sector and trade, transportation, and utilities sector will both experience strong growth as well at 2.2% and 1.9%, respectively.

The region is expected to see one of the lowest average quarterly unemployment rates in the state over the next three years at 2.8%, and employment and population growth will exhibit average quarterly changes at 1.6% and 1.3%, respectively.

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 243,985 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Alachua County population estimate of 227,120 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Gilchrist County population estimate of 16,865 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 132,669 in December 2006 for the metro area (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 2.3%, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 3,051 unemployed people.

(Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • University of Florida – 35,000 employees • Shands Hospital – 8,225 employees • North Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,560 employees • Nationwide Insurance – 1,058 employees Sources: University of Florida and Gainesville Council for Economic Outreach

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Area job growth on upswing • Gainesville has experienced rigorous job growth, adding 1,300 jobs in February and has 2,100 more jobs than a year ago, according to the Florida Agency on Workforce Innovation. The business services sector saw the most growth since February of last year.

• Gainesville’s unemployment rate in February was the lowest in the state at 2.5 percent, as compared to the state average of 3.3 percent and a national average of 4.5 percent.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, March 31, 2007 Foreclosure boom’s a bust in Alachua County • Foreclosures in Alachua may have increased, but the county still stands to beat the trends. In Florida, filings were up 54 percent. In Alachua, however, filings decreased by 55 percent.

• According to Equifax, only 2.21 percent of homes in the Gainesville metropolitan area are in foreclosure, the lowest rate in Florida and among the lowest rates in the nation. These low rates are seen as an indicator of the stability of the Gainesville economy.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, April 29, 2007

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

47

G ai n e s vi l l e

UF and local group will get state energy grants • The state of Florida has awarded $15 million in grants for renewable energy projects; this includes more that $320,000 to the biomass syndicate. The University of Florida will receive $2.5 million for a small power-plant project.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, March 2, 2007 Big breaks for technology businesses • Legislation passed by the Florida Legislature in early May will provide funding to support businesses created from university research projects.

• Ten new start-up businesses were created from UF research inventions in 2006, and many more should be expected for 2007.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, May 6, 2007 Gators rise to No. 3 in rankings for college licensing royalties • University of Florida ranked number three in the nation in licensing royalties. According to Debbie Gay, director of the University Athletic Association Licensing Department, UF collected more than $2 million in royalties for the first quarter, up from $457,280 during the same period last year.

• The royalty revenue is split evenly between the athletic department and the UF general fund.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, May 15, 2007

48

Florida & Metro Forecast

G ai n e s vi l l e Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

0.5

1.0

(Thousands)

Gainesville Real Personal Income 10.0%

170.0

8.0%

160.0

6.0%

150.0

(percent change year ago)

4.0%

140.0

2.0%

130.0

0.0%

120.0 110.0

2.5

(Millions 2000 $) 22000.0 (percent) 20000.0 18000.0 16000.0 14000.0 12000.0 10000.0 8000.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 6000.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 FL Unemployment Rate Real Gross Metro Product Gainesville Unemployment Rate

Gainesville Payroll Employment 180.0

2.0

Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0%

1.5

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Gainesville Payroll Employment

-2.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

49

G ai n e s vi l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast* 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

8.1 6.6 5 3.2 7 4.7 32.7 28.1 36.6 4.1

8.2 5.8 5 3.2 7 4.2 33 28.2 36.9 4.2

8.3 5.8 5.1 3.3 7.1 3.6 33.3 28.4 37.2 3.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily *Quarterly at an annual rate

50

Florida & Metro Forecast

2009Q3

2009Q4

8.4 5.1 5.1 3.3 7.2 3.2 33.7 28.5 37.4 2.5

8.6 5.4 5.2 3.4 7.2 3.6 34.1 28.7 37.7 2.9

8.7 5.7 5.2 3.5 7.3 3.7 34.5 28.9 38 3

8.8 5.7 5.3 3.5 7.4 3.6 34.9 29.1 38.3 3.1

8.9 5.8 5.4 3.6 7.4 3.7 35.3 29.3 38.6 3.2

9.1 5.9 5.4 3.6 7.5 3.7 35.7 29.5 38.9 3.3

9.2 6 5.5 3.7 7.6 3.9 36.2 29.7 39.3 3.4

9.4 6.2 5.6 3.8 7.6 4.1 36.7 30 39.7 3.6

134.8 2.4 4.7 0.4 130.1 2.4 6.3 -1.2 18.8 1.7 2.7 14.2 1.9 1.9 -1.3 6.7 2.9 13 5.7 22.4 0.6 14.1 3.8 4.9 5.2 3.7 -0.1 38.5 3.1

135.1 1.4 4.7 -1.8 130.4 1.5 6.2 -2.2 18.8 0.9 2.7 14.2 1.9 1.9 -2.9 6.7 2.3 13.1 5 22.5 1.1 14.1 2.8 4.9 5 3.7 0.4 38.5 0.8

135.6 1.5 4.6 -3.8 130.9 1.7 6.2 -4.1 18.9 1.3 2.7 14.3 1.9 1.9 -2.1 6.7 1.2 13.2 5 22.5 0.8 14.2 3.2 4.9 1.9 3.8 1.3 38.6 2.1

136.1 1.2 4.6 -1.2 131.4 1.3 6.2 -3 19.1 2 2.7 14.4 1.9 1.9 -0.5 6.7 0.8 13.4 3.9 22.5 1 14.4 2.7 4.9 0.9 3.8 1.4 38.7 0.8

136.6 1.4 4.6 -1.3 132 1.5 6.2 -1.9 19.2 2.3 2.8 14.5 2 1.9 0.3 6.7 0.6 13.5 4.1 22.7 1.2 14.5 2.5 4.9 0.4 3.8 1.3 38.8 0.8

137.1 1.5 4.6 -0.9 132.5 1.6 6.2 -0.4 19.3 2.6 2.8 14.5 2 1.9 1.5 6.7 0.7 13.7 4.3 22.8 1.5 14.4 2.1 4.9 0.1 3.8 0.5 38.9 0.8

137.7 1.6 4.6 -0.6 133.1 1.6 6.2 -0.2 19.4 2.6 2.8 14.6 2 1.9 3.3 6.7 0.9 13.8 4.3 22.9 1.8 14.5 1.8 4.9 0 3.7 -0.2 39 0.9

138.2 1.6 4.6 -0.3 133.6 1.7 6.2 0.2 19.5 2.1 2.8 14.7 2 1.9 3.9 6.8 1.4 13.9 4.4 23 2.2 14.6 1.4 4.9 0.2 3.7 -1.5 39.1 0.9

138.8 1.6 4.6 0.1 134.2 1.7 6.2 1 19.6 2.1 2.8 14.7 2 1.9 3.5 6.8 1.5 14.1 4.7 23.1 2.1 14.6 0.9 4.9 0.2 3.7 -1.1 39.1 0.9

139.4 1.6 4.6 0.3 134.7 1.7 6.3 1.5 19.7 1.9 2.9 14.8 2.1 2 3.2 6.8 1.6 14.3 4.6 23.2 1.7 14.6 1.2 4.9 0.2 3.8 0.1 39.2 1

139.9 1.6 4.6 0.5 135.3 1.7 6.4 2.6 19.7 1.7 2.9 14.8 2.1 2 2.8 6.9 1.8 14.4 4.6 23.2 1.3 14.6 1.1 4.9 0.4 3.8 1.9 39.4 1

9550.3 248.1 1.7 134.3 3.4 2.7 1338 871 467

9609.3 249.1 1.7 134.8 2.2 2.8 1392 880 512

9678.9 249.9 1.6 135.4 1.5 2.8 1456 910 546

9758.2 250.7 1.5 135.9 1.6 2.8 1527 949 577

9857.1 251.4 1.3 136.4 1.5 2.9 1560 978 583

9950.6 252 1.2 136.9 1.5 2.9 1603 1003 599

10048.3 252.6 1.1 137.3 1.4 2.9 1646 1026 620

10121 253.3 1 137.7 1.3 2.9 1688 1053 635

10219.2 253.9 1 138.1 1.3 2.9 1706 1075 631

10311.3 254.6 1 138.5 1.2 2.9 1718 1093 625

10403.6 255.3 1 138.9 1.2 2.9 1725 1111 614

G ai n e s vi l l e

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

5.2 4.5 3.1 2.1 5.3 2.8 22.6 23.1 26.2 1.8

5.5 6.2 3.3 2.2 5.5 3.7 23.7 23.7 27 2.9

5.7 3.8 3.5 2.3 5.6 1.6 24.5 24 27.7 2.6

5.8 1.8 3.6 2.2 5.6 0.4 24.8 23.9 28.6 3.4

6 2.9 3.7 2.3 5.7 0.8 25.3 24 29 1.4

6.6 10.8 4 2.6 6.1 7.9 27.9 25.7 31.4 8.1

7.2 8.2 4.4 2.8 6.5 5.2 29.9 26.8 33.7 7.5

7.7 7.2 4.7 3 6.7 4.4 31.5 27.5 35.4 5.1

8.2 6 5 3.2 7 4 32.9 28.2 36.8 3.8

8.6 5.5 5.2 3.4 7.3 3.5 34.3 28.8 37.9 2.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

119.1 2.1 5 -3.5 114.1 2.4 4.9 8.1 16.4 0.3 1.9 13.6 0.8 2.1 0.8 6.1 0.9 10.9 7.9 18.4 2.4 11.7 5.2 3.6 -1.4 2.9 -0.6 37.1 1.2

123.3 3.5 5.3 5.5 117.9 3.4 4.7 -2.9 17.1 4.6 2.1 14.1 0.9 2.3 11.5 6.4 4.2 11.3 3.7 19.3 4.5 11.8 0.8 3.8 6.1 3.1 6.6 38.1 2.7

124.8 1.3 4.6 -14.5 120.3 2 4.8 2.1 17.4 1.5 2.2 13.9 1.3 2.2 -6.5 6.6 4 11.1 -2 19.9 3.1 12.3 3.8 3.9 2.2 3.1 1.6 39 2.4

124.7 -0.1 4.5 -0.9 120.2 -0.1 5.1 5.6 17.1 -1.2 2.3 13.3 1.5 2 -6.5 6.6 -0.1 9.9 -10.4 20.4 2.4 12.1 -1.3 4.3 10.4 3.2 2.1 39.4 1

126.1 1.1 4.2 -5.9 121.8 1.3 5.2 1.5 17.3 1.1 2.5 13.1 1.7 2 -1.2 6.2 -6.4 10.4 4.3 20.8 2.3 12 -0.5 4.5 5.4 3.3 3.6 40 1.6

128.3 1.8 4.2 -2 124.2 1.9 5.8 11.7 17.4 0.4 2.6 13.2 1.6 2.1 6.1 6.2 -0.7 11.3 8.8 21.5 2.9 12.9 7.5 4.7 3.3 3.4 3.7 38.9 -2.8

129.9 1.2 4.2 -0.2 125.7 1.3 6.2 6.3 18.1 3.7 2.7 13.8 1.6 2 -5.8 6.2 1 11.9 5.6 21.9 2.1 13.7 5.9 4.5 -3.1 3.6 5.9 37.6 -3.3

132.6 2.1 4.7 12.8 127.9 1.8 6.4 3.4 18.5 2.7 2.7 14 1.8 1.9 -4.6 6.5 4.4 12.4 4 22.2 1.6 13.7 -0.2 4.7 2.9 3.7 1.8 37.9 0.9

135 1.8 4.7 -0.2 130.3 1.9 6.3 -1.3 18.8 1.4 2.7 14.2 1.9 1.9 -2.9 6.7 2.6 13 5.4 22.4 0.9 14.1 3.1 4.9 3.9 3.7 0.4 38.5 1.6

136.9 1.4 4.6 -1 132.3 1.5 6.2 -1.4 19.3 2.4 2.8 14.5 2 1.9 1.1 6.7 0.7 13.6 4.1 22.7 1.4 14.4 2.3 4.9 0.4 3.8 0.8 38.8 0.8

7188.2 230.3 1.4 114.6 1.5 2.3 2662 1316 1346

7496.3 232.7 1.1 122.6 7 3 2195 1193 1002

7665.1 233.8 0.5 124.5 1.5 3.5 2377 1189 1188

7840.8 235.6 0.8 124.4 -0.1 4 1959 1151 807

8151.9 236.8 0.5 125.9 1.2 3.7 1746 1281 465

8554 238.4 0.6 127 0.9 3.4 1883 1404 478

8951.9 240.8 1 127.8 0.6 3 2246 1478 767

9365.9 244.5 1.6 131.2 2.7 2.7 1945 1232 712

9583.9 248.6 1.7 134.5 2.5 2.7 1371 873 498

9903.5 251.7 1.3 136.6 1.5 2.9 1584 989 595

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

51

G ai n e s vi l l e

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

9.1 6 5.5 3.7 7.5 3.8 36 29.6 39.1 3.4

9.7 6.3 5.7 4 7.9 4.3 37.8 30.5 40.6 3.6

10.3 6 6 4.3 8.2 3.9 39.6 31.4 42 3.5

10.8 5.2 6.3 4.5 8.4 3.2 41.2 32 43.5 3.5

11.4 4.8 6.6 4.8 8.7 2.8 42.8 32.6 45 3.4

11.9 4.9 6.8 5.1 8.9 3 44.4 33.2 46.5 3.3

12.5 5.1 7.1 5.4 9.2 3.1 46.2 33.9 48 3.3

13.1 5 7.4 5.7 9.5 3 48 34.6 49.6 3.3

13.8 5.1 7.7 6.1 9.8 3.1 50 35.3 51.2 3.3

14.5 5.1 8 6.5 10.1 3.1 52.1 36.1 52.9 3.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

52

Florida & Metro Forecast

139.1 1.6 4.6 0.1 134.5 1.7 6.3 1.3 19.6 2 2.8 14.8 2 2 3.3 6.8 1.6 14.2 4.6 23.2 1.8 14.6 1.1 4.9 0.2 3.8 -0.1 39.2 0.9

141.2 1.5 4.7 0.6 136.6 1.6 6.5 2.8 19.9 1.2 2.9 14.9 2.1 2 2.4 6.9 2 14.8 4.2 23.4 1.2 14.8 1.1 4.9 0.6 3.8 1.3 39.6 0.9

143.2 1.4 4.7 0.3 138.5 1.4 6.6 2 20.1 0.9 3 14.9 2.2 2 1.8 7.1 1.7 15.4 4.3 23.8 1.7 14.9 1 5 1 3.8 -0.7 39.8 0.7

144.6 1 4.7 0.2 140 1.1 6.6 0.7 20.1 0.4 3 14.9 2.2 2.1 1.5 7.1 0.6 16 3.5 24.2 1.3 15 0.5 5 0.8 3.8 0.6 40.1 0.7

145.7 0.7 4.7 0 141 0.8 6.6 0.1 20.2 0.3 3 14.9 2.2 2.1 1.4 7.1 0.3 16.5 3.1 24.3 0.6 15 -0.1 5 0.5 3.8 0.6 40.4 0.7

146.7 0.7 4.7 0 142 0.7 6.7 0.6 20.2 0.1 3.1 14.9 2.3 2.1 1 7.1 0.3 17 3.3 24.4 0.5 14.9 -0.4 5 0.4 3.8 0.7 40.7 0.6

147.8 0.7 4.7 0.1 143.1 0.7 6.7 1 20.2 -0.1 3.1 14.8 2.3 2.1 1.1 7.2 0.4 17.6 3.4 24.6 0.6 14.8 -0.5 5.1 0.6 3.9 0.6 40.9 0.5

148.8 0.7 4.7 0.3 144.1 0.7 6.8 1.2 20.2 0 3.2 14.7 2.4 2.2 1.1 7.2 0.2 18.2 3.4 24.7 0.4 14.7 -0.6 5.1 0.7 3.9 0.5 41.1 0.5

149.8 0.7 4.7 0.4 145.1 0.7 6.9 1.1 20.1 -0.2 3.2 14.5 2.4 2.2 0.9 7.2 0 18.9 3.6 24.8 0.7 14.6 -0.9 5.2 0.8 3.9 0.6 41.3 0.5

150.9 0.7 4.7 0.1 146.1 0.7 7 0.7 20.1 -0.1 3.3 14.4 2.5 2.2 0.7 7.2 0.3 19.5 3.4 25 0.8 14.5 -0.7 5.2 0.5 3.9 0.6 41.5 0.4

10263.8 254.3 1 138.3 1.2 2.9 1709 1083 626

10611.8 257.1 1.1 139.8 1.1 2.9 1656 1087 569

10942.4 260 1.1 141.3 1.1 3 1570 1057 513

11245.9 262.8 1.1 142.7 1 3.1 1516 1032 484

11548.4 265.6 1.1 143.9 0.9 3.1 1488 1023 465

11871.4 268.4 1 145.1 0.8 3.2 1478 1019 459

12208.3 271.1 1 146.1 0.7 3.2 1492 1024 468

12548 273.7 1 147.2 0.7 3.3 1480 1010 471

12899.4 276.3 0.9 148.2 0.7 3.3 1466 988 478

13265 278.8 0.9 149.2 0.7 3.3 1457 969 488

G ai n e s vi l l e

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

15.2 4.9 8.3 6.9 10.4 2.9 54.1 36.8 54.7 3.4

16 4.8 8.7 7.3 10.6 2.9 56.3 37.5 56.5 3.4

16.7 4.8 9 7.7 10.9 2.8 58.4 38.2 58.4 3.3

17.5 4.8 9.4 8.1 11.3 2.9 60.7 39 60.4 3.5

18.4 4.8 9.8 8.6 11.6 2.8 63.1 39.7 62.5 3.5

19.3 4.8 10.2 9 11.9 2.7 65.5 40.5 64.7 3.4

20.2 4.8 10.7 9.5 12.2 2.7 68.1 41.2 66.9 3.5

21.1 4.8 11.1 10 12.5 2.7 70.8 42 69.3 3.5

22.1 4.7 11.6 10.5 12.9 2.6 73.4 42.7 71.7 3.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

151.8 0.6 4.7 -0.2 147.1 0.7 7 0.1 20.1 0.1 3.3 14.4 2.5 2.2 0.7 7.3 0.6 20.1 3 25.2 0.8 14.5 -0.4 5.2 0.6 4 0.8 41.6 0.3

153 0.8 4.7 -0.3 148.3 0.8 7 0.3 20.2 0.2 3.4 14.4 2.5 2.2 0.9 7.3 0.7 20.7 3.1 25.5 0.9 14.4 -0.3 5.3 0.8 4 0.9 41.7 0.3

154.1 0.8 4.7 -0.2 149.4 0.8 7 0.6 20.3 0.5 3.5 14.4 2.5 2.3 1.3 7.3 0.6 21.3 2.8 25.7 1.1 14.4 -0.2 5.3 1 4 0.1 41.8 0.2

155.4 0.8 4.7 -0.3 150.7 0.9 7.1 0.7 20.4 0.5 3.5 14.4 2.6 2.3 1.3 7.4 0.7 21.9 3 26 1 14.4 -0.2 5.4 1.1 4 0.5 41.9 0.2

156.7 0.8 4.7 -0.3 152 0.8 7.1 0.9 20.5 0.6 3.6 14.4 2.6 2.3 1.4 7.4 0.6 22.5 2.9 26.2 0.9 14.3 -0.2 5.4 1.2 4 0.5 42 0.2

157.9 0.8 4.7 -0.3 153.3 0.8 7.2 1.1 20.6 0.5 3.7 14.4 2.6 2.4 1.4 7.5 0.6 23.2 3 26.5 0.8 14.3 -0.3 5.5 1.1 4.1 0.5 42 0.2

159.1 0.8 4.6 -0.2 154.5 0.8 7.3 1.5 20.7 0.5 3.7 14.4 2.7 2.4 1.3 7.5 0.7 23.8 2.7 26.6 0.6 14.3 -0.3 5.5 1 4.1 0.5 42.1 0.2

160.3 0.7 4.6 -0.2 155.6 0.8 7.5 2 20.8 0.5 3.8 14.4 2.7 2.4 1.4 7.6 0.7 24.4 2.3 26.8 0.6 14.2 -0.1 5.6 1.1 4.1 0.5 42.2 0.1

161.4 0.7 4.6 -0.2 156.7 0.7 7.6 1.8 20.9 0.6 3.9 14.4 2.8 2.5 1.5 7.6 0.6 24.9 1.9 27 0.6 14.2 -0.1 5.7 1.2 4.1 0.5 42.3 0.2

13630.7 281.3 0.9 150.1 0.6 3.3 1436 948 488

14003.1 283.8 0.9 151.3 0.8 3.3 1422 928 494

14388.3 286.3 0.9 152.6 0.9 3.4 1409 910 499

14783.5 288.8 0.9 153.9 0.8 3.4 1401 894 507

15180.2 291.3 0.9 155.2 0.8 3.4 1401 880 521

15589.6 293.8 0.9 156.5 0.8 3.5 1407 879 528

16015.2 296.2 0.8 157.8 0.8 3.5 1426 888 538

16435.5 298.7 0.8 159.1 0.9 3.5 1441 889 552

16843.8 301.2 0.8 160.5 0.9 3.6 1432 869 563

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

53

G ai n e s vi l l e

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

23.1 4.5 12.1 11.1 13.2 2.5 76.1 43.4 74.1 3.4

24.2 4.5 12.6 11.6 13.5 2.4 78.9 44.1 76.6 3.4

25.3 4.6 13.1 12.2 13.8 2.5 81.9 44.8 79.2 3.4

26.4 4.5 13.6 12.8 14.1 2.4 84.9 45.5 81.8 3.3

27.6 4.5 14.2 13.4 14.5 2.4 88.1 46.2 84.6 3.4

28.8 4.4 14.7 14.1 14.8 2.3 91.3 47 87.3 3.2

30.1 4.5 15.3 14.8 15.2 2.4 94.7 47.7 90.2 3.3

31.5 4.5 16 15.5 15.5 2.4 98.2 48.5 93.2 3.3

32.9 4.6 16.6 16.3 15.9 2.4 102 49.3 96.4 3.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

54

Florida & Metro Forecast

162.4 0.6 4.6 -0.3 157.8 0.7 7.7 1.6 21.1 0.7 3.9 14.4 2.8 2.5 1.6 7.7 0.5 25.3 1.7 27.1 0.6 14.2 -0.1 5.7 1.2 4.2 0.5 42.3 0.1

163.5 0.7 4.6 -0.5 158.9 0.7 7.9 1.7 21.2 0.7 4 14.5 2.8 2.5 1.5 7.7 0.6 25.7 1.7 27.3 0.6 14.2 0 5.8 1.1 4.2 0.5 42.3 0.1

164.7 0.7 4.6 -0.4 160.1 0.8 8 2.1 21.3 0.5 4 14.5 2.9 2.6 1.6 7.8 0.7 26.2 2 27.4 0.5 14.2 -0.2 5.9 1 4.3 3.6 42.4 0.1

165.9 0.7 4.6 -0.1 161.3 0.7 8.2 2.6 21.5 0.6 4.1 14.6 2.9 2.6 1.8 7.8 0.7 26.8 2.2 27.6 0.6 14.2 0 5.9 1.1 4.2 -2.3 42.4 0.1

167.1 0.8 4.6 -0.1 162.6 0.8 8.4 2.4 21.6 0.6 4.2 14.6 2.9 2.7 2 7.9 0.7 27.4 2.2 27.8 0.6 14.2 -0.2 6 1.2 4.2 0.5 42.5 0.1

168.4 0.8 4.6 -0.2 163.9 0.8 8.6 2.1 21.7 0.6 4.2 14.6 2.9 2.7 2 7.9 0.8 28 2.4 27.9 0.6 14.2 0 6.1 1.1 4.3 0.5 42.5 0.1

169.8 0.8 4.5 -0.2 165.2 0.8 8.8 2.1 21.8 0.4 4.3 14.7 2.9 2.8 2 8 0.8 28.8 2.6 28 0.5 14.1 -0.3 6.1 1 4.3 0.5 42.5 0.1

171 0.7 4.5 -0.1 166.5 0.8 8.9 1.9 21.9 0.3 4.3 14.7 2.9 2.8 1.9 8.1 0.6 29.5 2.6 28.1 0.3 14.1 -0.2 6.2 1 4.3 0.5 42.6 0.1

172.2 0.7 4.5 0 167.7 0.7 9.1 1.9 21.9 0.2 4.4 14.7 2.9 2.9 1.9 8.1 0.6 30.3 2.7 28.2 0.3 14 -0.4 6.2 0.9 4.3 0.5 42.6 0.1

17250.1 303.7 0.8 162 0.9 3.6 1407 838 569

17672 306.2 0.8 163.4 0.9 3.6 1397 826 572

18119.6 308.6 0.8 164.9 0.9 3.6 1403 829 574

18567.9 311 0.8 166.3 0.9 3.7 1400 824 576

19021.1 313.4 0.8 167.8 0.9 3.7 1372 798 574

19494.9 315.8 0.8 169.3 0.9 3.7 1356 786 570

19998.9 318.1 0.7 170.8 0.9 3.7 1352 787 564

20514.8 320.5 0.7 172.3 0.9 3.8 1348 791 556

21050.6 322.8 0.7 173.8 0.9 3.8 1345 796 548

J ack s o n vi l l e

P r o fi l e s The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport.

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 1,277,997 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Baker County population estimate of 25,203 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Clay County population estimate of 178,899 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Duval County population estimate of 837,964 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Nassau County population estimate of 66,707 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • St. Johns County population estimate of 169,224 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 654,853 in December 2006 for the metro area (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3.1%, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 20,622 unemployed people.

(Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Naval Air Station Jacksonville – 25,245 employees • Naval Station Mayport – 15,293 employees • Duval County Public Schools – 14,284 employees • City of Jacksonville – 8,828 employees • Baptist Health – 7,000 employees • Blue Cross & Blue Shield of Florida – 7,000 employees

• • • •

Winn-Dixie Stores, Inc. – 6,200 employees Mayo Clinic – 5,000 employees CSX – 4,400 employees Citibank (Citi-cards) – 4,200 employees Source: Jacksonville Cornerstone

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s The Jacksonville MSA is expected to achieve an average quarterly wage increase of 3.5% over the next three years, ranking the area among the state’s highest.

The professional and business services sector is expected to achieve the highest average quarterly growth at 4.3% over the next three years. Additionally, the trade, transportation, and utilities sector and the educational and health services sector are also expected to achieve moderate growth at average quarterly rates of 2.5% and 2.4%, respectively.

Jacksonville’s average quarterly personal income will experience average quarterly growth of 6.5% over the next three years, with a per capita income level ranked fourth statewide.

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s BAE systems to acquire Jacksonville’s Armor Holdings • Armor Holdings, a military and security contractor in Jacksonville, has been bought out by the British military contractor BAE Systems for $3.5 billion in cash. BAE is going to pay $88 for each of Armor Holding’s stocks.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, May 16, 2007 Imaging center makes debut • Precision Imaging Centers has put together a $12 million, 8,400-square-foot outpatient imaging center to open on the southside of Jacksonville. CEO Stephen Levkoff stated that he expects to employ about 200 workers and have invested almost $60 million in the region by 2009.

• Precision’s efforts are not singular. Jacksonville’s demographics and opportunities in health services lured 30 to 40 other imaging centers to the area as well.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

55

J ack s o n vi l l e

• Local hospitals, such as Shands, have noticed the developments that Precision and others have made and in response, have made plans to invest nearly $10 million in advanced imaging equipment.

Source: The Florida Times-Union, March 30, 2007 Mayo receives $2 million donation • The Mayo Clinic received a $2 million donation from the Jack Taylor Family Foundation which will be used to help construct Mayo’s 214-bed hospital at the San Pablo campus. The facility will cost nearly $255 million and is expected to open next spring.

Source: The Florida Times-Union, March 6, 2007 PSS invests $3 million in new Westside distribution center • PSS World Medical Inc. plans to invest more than $3 million in a new distribution center in Jacksonville to supply Asian-made medical products to customers in the U.S. The center will be a 168,500-square-foot warehouse in Westside Industrial Park and will have about 50 employees when it becomes fully operational.

• PSS intends to increase its volume in the U.S. more than threefold, 80 percent of which would flow through the new distribution center.

Source: The Florida Times-Union, March 23, 2007 JIA gets $4.9 million from feds • The Jacksonville Aviation Authority will use $4.9 million from the Department of Transportation to continue the expansion of the Jacksonville International Airport.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, May 16, 2007 Mercedes-Benz to move vehicle processing to Brunswick • Mercedes-Benz intends to move its vehicle preparation center, currently in Jacksonville, to Brunswick, Georgia by the first quarter of 2009.

The move brings an end to the competition between the ports of Jacksonville and Brunswick for the company’s import processing in the Southeast.

56

Florida & Metro Forecast

• The 50,000-square-foot plant employs 41 workers. Mercedes will offer each employee the chance to transfer to Brunswick.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, May 18, 2007

J ack s o n vi l l e Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

0.5

(Thousands)

Jacksonville Real Personal Income 10.0%

1000.0

8.0%

900.0

6.0%

800.0

4.0%

700.0

2.0%

600.0

0.0%

500.0

2.0

(Millions 2000 $) 160000.0 140000.0 120000.0 100000.0 80000.0 60000.0 40000.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 20000.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 FL Unemployment Rate Real Gross Metro Product Jacksonville Unemployment Rate (percent)

Jacksonville Payroll Employment 1100.0

1.5

Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

1.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Jacksonville Payroll Employment

-2.0%

(percent change year ago)

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

57

J ack s o n vi l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast* 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

48.5 6.8 28.2 20.3 41.6 4.9 37 31.7 42.7 4.2

49.1 6.3 28.4 20.7 41.9 4.7 37.2 31.8 43 4.2

49.8 5.8 28.7 21.1 42.4 3.6 37.5 31.9 43.3 3.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2009Q4

50.5 5.4 29 21.5 42.7 3.4 37.9 32.1 43.7 2.7

51.3 5.7 29.4 21.9 43.2 3.9 38.2 32.2 44 3.1

52.1 6.2 29.8 22.3 43.7 4.2 38.7 32.4 44.4 3.2

53 6.5 30.2 22.8 44.2 4.4 39.1 32.6 44.8 3.3

53.9 6.8 30.6 23.3 44.7 4.6 39.6 32.8 45.2 3.4

54.9 7 31.1 23.8 45.3 4.8 40.1 33.1 45.6 3.5

55.9 7.2 31.6 24.2 45.9 5.1 40.6 33.4 46 3.6

56.9 7.4 32.1 24.7 46.5 5.2 41.2 33.7 46.5 3.8

635.9 2.3 32.4 -2.8 603.4 2.6 49.6 -0.9 137.9 1.6 29.2 75.3 33.4 11.4 -1.2 60.9 0.6 98.6 4.3 77.3 4.8 64.8 4.6 28 3.4 17.2 1.7 57.8 2.5

636.4 1.7 32.2 -3.1 604.2 2 49.2 -1.8 138.2 1 29.4 75.3 33.6 11.3 -0.3 60.8 0.7 98.9 3.6 77.6 3.8 64.7 3.4 28.1 3.3 17.4 2.4 58 2

637.9 1 32.1 -1.6 605.8 1.1 49.1 -3.6 139.1 1.1 29.6 75.7 33.8 11.1 -1.5 60.6 0.6 99.2 1.3 77.8 2.7 65.1 2.9 28.1 2.1 17.4 1.8 58.2 1.2

639.9 0.9 32 -1.6 607.9 1.1 48.9 -2.3 140.1 2.1 29.8 76.3 34 11.1 -2.4 60.6 0.1 99.5 1.3 78 1.4 65.7 2.1 28.1 1.1 17.5 1.5 58.4 1.2

642.7 1.1 31.9 -1.7 610.8 1.2 49 -1.3 141 2.3 30 76.8 34.2 11.2 -1.5 60.6 -0.5 100.3 1.7 78.4 1.4 66.2 2.1 28.2 0.7 17.5 1.5 58.5 1.2

646 1.5 31.8 -1.2 614.1 1.6 49.2 0 141.8 2.6 30.3 77.1 34.5 11.2 -0.3 60.7 -0.1 101.9 3 78.9 1.7 65.9 1.9 28.2 0.3 17.5 0.6 58.7 1.1

649.7 1.8 31.8 -1 617.9 2 49.2 0.3 142.7 2.6 30.5 77.7 34.7 11.3 1.5 60.9 0.5 103.5 4.4 79.3 1.9 66.3 1.8 28.2 0.3 17.4 0 58.9 1.2

653.6 2.1 31.8 -0.8 621.9 2.3 49.5 1.1 143.4 2.4 30.7 77.9 34.9 11.3 2.1 61.2 1 105.3 5.8 79.7 2.2 66.7 1.5 28.3 0.5 17.4 -0.5 59.1 1.3

658.1 2.4 31.7 -0.5 626.3 2.5 49.9 1.9 144.3 2.3 30.9 78.3 35.1 11.4 1.8 61.4 1.4 107.3 6.9 80.2 2.2 66.8 1 28.3 0.5 17.4 -0.6 59.4 1.5

662.7 2.6 31.7 -0.4 631 2.7 50.4 2.5 145.2 2.3 31.2 78.6 35.5 11.4 1.7 61.8 1.8 109.3 7.3 80.5 2 66.9 1.4 28.4 0.5 17.5 -0.1 59.6 1.6

667.2 2.7 31.7 -0.3 635.5 2.8 50.9 3.4 146 2.3 31.4 78.9 35.7 11.5 1.4 62.2 2.1 111 7.2 80.8 1.8 67.2 1.4 28.4 0.7 17.6 1.2 59.9 1.6

51698.6 1310.4 2.5 666.5 3.7 3.3 12053 8135 3918

51999.5 1318.1 2.5 669.8 3.1 3.4 12093 8211 3882

52351.5 1325.7 2.4 673.1 1.5 3.4 12211 8393 3818

52772.5 1333.3 2.4 676.3 2 3.4 12417 8607 3810

53335.6 1340.7 2.3 679.7 2 3.4 12604 8781 3822

53906.8 1348 2.3 683.1 2 3.3 12868 9011 3857

54529.9 1355 2.2 686.5 2 3.3 13172 9281 3891

55037.2 1361.8 2.1 689.8 2 3.3 13559 9639 3920

55682.2 1368.3 2.1 693 2 3.3 13784 9854 3929

56322.4 1374.7 2 696.2 1.9 3.3 13981 10034 3947

56947.4 1381.1 1.9 699.2 1.9 3.3 14075 10199 3875

*Quarterly at an annual rate

58

2009Q3

Florida & Metro Forecast

J ack s o n vi l l e

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

30.3 4.7 17.8 12.5 31.1 3 27.3 27.9 31.3 1.4

33.1 9.4 19.3 13.8 33.1 6.7 29.3 29.4 32.8 4.7

33.8 2 19.8 14 33.1 -0.1 29.4 28.8 33.4 1.8

35.1 3.9 20.4 14.7 33.9 2.4 29.9 28.9 34.8 4.3

37.2 5.9 21.9 15.3 35.2 3.8 31 29.4 37 6.4

40.3 8.5 23.4 17 37.2 5.7 32.9 30.4 38.4 3.9

42.8 6 24.9 17.9 38.4 3.1 34.2 30.7 39.6 2.9

45.9 7.3 26.8 19.1 40.1 4.4 35.8 31.2 41.3 4.3

48.8 6.4 28.3 20.5 41.8 4.4 37.1 31.8 42.9 3.9

51.7 5.9 29.6 22.1 43.5 4 38.5 32.3 44.2 3.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

543.7 2.4 38.5 -0.5 505.2 2.7 31.3 1.6 124.3 1.9 24.5 67.7 32 14.4 7.3 55.4 3.7 80.9 5.9 58.9 2.2 49 3.3 22.7 1.5 18 -3.5 50.3 0.6

565.6 4 39.5 2.4 526.1 4.1 32.6 4.2 129.7 4.4 26.3 70.5 32.9 15.3 6.3 56.5 2 89.1 10.2 59.6 1.2 50.2 2.3 23.8 4.7 17.8 -1.1 51.5 2.4

567.1 0.3 36.2 -8.3 530.9 0.9 32.9 1 125.6 -3.2 26.2 67.6 31.7 14.4 -5.6 57.9 2.4 93.9 5.3 61.1 2.4 51.1 1.8 23.9 0.4 17.7 -0.7 52.5 1.9

561.5 -1 34.4 -4.9 527.1 -0.7 34.1 3.6 124.4 -0.9 25.9 68.1 30.4 13.2 -8.1 57.7 -0.3 86.1 -8.2 63.5 4 52.5 2.8 24.9 4.6 17.7 0.2 52.8 0.5

564.6 0.5 33.4 -3.1 531.2 0.8 36.7 7.4 125 0.4 26.8 68.8 29.4 12.4 -6.1 57.6 -0.1 84.1 -2.3 64.7 1.9 53.3 1.6 25.7 3 18 1.6 53.6 1.7

581.9 3.1 33.3 -0.3 548.7 3.3 40.9 11.5 128.1 2.5 26.9 71.1 30.1 11.6 -6.5 58.4 1.4 85.9 2.2 67.9 5 56.2 5.5 26.4 2.6 17.8 -1.3 55.4 3.3

605.1 4 33.5 0.9 571.6 4.2 45.4 11 132.7 3.6 27.8 73.9 31.1 11.9 2.4 59.3 1.5 89.4 4.1 71.3 4.9 60.4 7.3 26.8 1.5 17.4 -2.2 57.1 3

624.5 3.2 33.2 -1.1 591.3 3.4 49.9 10 136.2 2.6 29.2 74.8 32.2 11.4 -4.3 60.3 1.7 95.5 6.8 74.4 4.4 62.3 3.2 27.2 1.7 17 -2.2 56.9 -0.2

636 1.9 32.3 -2.6 603.7 2.1 49.5 -0.9 138.1 1.4 29.3 75.3 33.5 11.3 -1 60.7 0.6 98.7 3.4 77.4 4.1 64.7 3.9 28 2.9 17.3 1.8 57.9 1.8

644.5 1.3 31.9 -1.4 612.7 1.5 49.1 -0.8 141.4 2.4 30.2 77 34.3 11.2 -0.7 60.7 0 101.3 2.6 78.7 1.6 66 2 28.2 0.6 17.5 0.9 58.6 1.2

37492.1 1112.2 1.4 577.1 2.2 3.1 11325 8549 2776

39061.3 1129.4 1.5 589.4 2.1 3.2 10919 8249 2669

39807.4 1151.4 2 595.6 1.1 4.1 12766 10070 2696

40521.1 1175.5 2.1 595.8 0 5.4 14505 11273 3231

42289.5 1198.5 2 600.3 0.8 5.2 15375 13042 2333

44733.6 1225.2 2.2 611.1 1.8 4.7 18227 14127 4100

47794.5 1251.8 2.2 627 2.6 3.8 24211 18971 5241

50462.1 1282.1 2.4 649 3.5 3.3 17448 13072 4376

51854.8 1314.1 2.5 668.1 2.9 3.4 12141 8216 3925

53636.2 1344.3 2.3 681.4 2 3.3 12765 8920 3845

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

59

J ack s o n vi l l e

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

55.4 7.1 31.4 24 45.6 4.9 40.4 33.3 45.8 3.6

59.4 7.3 33.4 26 48 5.2 42.5 34.4 47.5 3.8

63.2 6.4 35.2 28 50.1 4.3 44.4 35.2 49.3 3.7

67 5.9 37 30 52 3.9 46.2 35.9 51.1 3.6

70.8 5.7 38.8 32 53.9 3.7 48 36.6 52.8 3.5

74.9 5.8 40.7 34.1 56 3.8 49.9 37.3 54.6 3.4

79.3 5.9 42.8 36.5 58.2 3.9 52 38.1 56.5 3.4

83.9 5.8 44.8 39.1 60.4 3.9 54.1 39 58.3 3.3

88.8 5.9 47 41.8 62.7 3.8 56.4 39.8 60.3 3.3

94 5.9 49.4 44.7 65.2 3.8 58.8 40.7 62.3 3.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

60

Florida & Metro Forecast

660.4 2.5 31.7 -0.5 628.7 2.6 50.2 2.2 144.7 2.3 31 78.4 35.3 11.4 1.8 61.6 1.6 108.2 6.8 80.3 2.1 66.9 1.3 28.3 0.5 17.5 0 59.5 1.5

677.1 2.5 31.7 -0.1 645.4 2.7 52 3.7 147.6 2 31.9 79.4 36.4 11.6 1.4 63 2.2 115.2 6.4 81.5 1.5 68 1.6 28.6 1 17.6 0.9 60.4 1.5

689.8 1.9 31.6 -0.3 658.2 2 53.5 2.8 150.1 1.7 32.6 80 37.5 11.8 1.7 63.9 1.4 119.8 4 82.3 1.1 68.9 1.4 29 1.4 17.6 0 61.2 1.3

700.6 1.6 31.4 -0.5 669.2 1.7 54.3 1.5 152.1 1.3 33.3 80.5 38.4 12 1.9 64.3 0.6 124.1 3.6 83.7 1.7 69.6 1 29.4 1.2 17.8 0.8 62 1.3

711 1.5 31.2 -0.6 679.8 1.6 54.8 1 153.9 1.2 33.9 80.9 39.2 12.2 1.7 64.6 0.5 129.1 4 85 1.5 70 0.5 29.7 1 17.9 0.8 62.7 1.2

722.2 1.6 31.1 -0.3 691.1 1.7 55.7 1.5 155.6 1.1 34.6 81.1 40.2 12.4 1.5 65 0.7 134.7 4.4 86.1 1.3 70.2 0.3 29.9 0.9 18 0.8 63.4 1.2

733.8 1.6 31.1 0 702.6 1.7 56.8 1.9 157.3 1.1 35.3 81 41.2 12.5 1.4 65.5 0.8 140.5 4.3 87.2 1.2 70.3 0.2 30.3 1.1 18.2 0.7 64.1 1.1

745.3 1.6 31.1 0.1 714.2 1.6 58 2.2 159.1 1.1 36.1 80.8 42.3 12.7 1.4 66 0.7 146.3 4.1 88 1 70.4 0.1 30.6 1.2 18.3 0.7 64.8 1

757.3 1.6 31.2 0.2 726.1 1.7 59.2 2.1 160.8 1.1 36.9 80.6 43.5 12.9 1.3 66.3 0.5 152.5 4.2 89.1 1.2 70.4 0 31 1.3 18.4 0.7 65.5 1.1

769.2 1.6 31.2 0.1 738 1.6 60.2 1.7 162.4 1 37.8 80.6 44.3 13 1 66.9 0.9 158.7 4.1 90.2 1.3 70.4 0 31.4 1.1 18.6 0.7 66.1 1

55997.3 1371.5 2 694.5 1.9 3.3 13850 9932 3918

58365.1 1396.9 1.9 707.1 1.8 3.3 13885 10122 3763

60448.8 1422.7 1.9 719.7 1.8 3.3 13581 9905 3676

62511 1449.1 1.9 731.8 1.7 3.4 13213 9671 3542

64686.9 1474.9 1.8 743.9 1.7 3.4 13149 9733 3415

67066.6 1500.3 1.7 754.8 1.5 3.4 13200 9855 3345

69535.6 1525.6 1.7 764.8 1.3 3.4 13371 10031 3340

72055.6 1550.7 1.6 774.4 1.3 3.4 13413 10042 3371

74689.2 1575.4 1.6 783.6 1.2 3.4 13315 9908 3407

77450 1600.2 1.6 792.8 1.2 3.4 13204 9762 3442

J ack s o n vi l l e

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

99.4 5.7 51.8 47.6 67.6 3.7 61.2 41.6 64.4 3.4

105.1 5.7 54.4 50.7 70.1 3.7 63.7 42.5 66.7 3.4

111 5.6 57.1 53.9 72.6 3.6 66.2 43.3 68.9 3.3

117.2 5.7 60 57.3 75.3 3.7 68.9 44.2 71.2 3.4

123.9 5.7 63.1 60.8 78 3.6 71.7 45.2 73.7 3.5

130.9 5.7 66.4 64.5 80.8 3.6 74.7 46.1 76.3 3.5

138.3 5.7 69.9 68.4 83.7 3.6 77.8 47.1 79 3.6

146.1 5.7 73.5 72.6 86.7 3.6 81 48 81.9 3.6

154.2 5.5 77.2 77 89.7 3.4 84.2 48.9 84.7 3.5

862.2 1.7 30.3 -0.6 831.9 1.8 67.8 2.5 177.3 1.3 44.5 83.3 49.8 14.4 1.5 72.5 1.3 203.5 3.4 99.8 1.2 72.5 0.4 34.9 1.6 19.5 0.7 69.8 0.8

876.2 1.6 30.1 -0.5 846.1 1.7 69.6 2.8 179.6 1.3 45.5 83.8 50.7 14.6 1.6 73.4 1.3 209.5 3 100.9 1.1 72.9 0.6 35.5 1.7 19.6 0.7 70.3 0.8

889.8 1.6 30 -0.4 859.8 1.6 71.5 2.7 182.1 1.4 46.4 84.4 51.8 14.9 1.8 74.3 1.2 214.8 2.5 102.1 1.2 73.4 0.6 36.1 1.8 19.8 0.7 70.8 0.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

780.7 1.5 31.2 -0.2 749.6 1.6 60.8 1 164 1 38.8 80.7 44.7 13.1 0.9 67.7 1.1 164.7 3.8 91.5 1.4 70.6 0.3 31.8 1.2 18.7 0.9 66.7 0.8

793.1 1.6 31 -0.4 762.1 1.7 61.6 1.3 165.8 1.1 39.7 81.1 45.4 13.3 1.1 68.4 1.2 170.8 3.7 92.8 1.4 70.9 0.5 32.2 1.4 18.9 1 67.2 0.8

805.9 1.6 30.9 -0.4 775 1.7 62.5 1.5 168 1.3 40.6 81.5 46.2 13.5 1.6 69.2 1.2 176.7 3.5 94.4 1.6 71.3 0.5 32.7 1.6 18.9 0.2 67.7 0.7

819.5 1.7 30.7 -0.5 788.7 1.8 63.6 1.7 170.3 1.4 41.6 82 47.1 13.7 1.6 70 1.1 183.2 3.6 95.8 1.5 71.6 0.5 33.2 1.6 19.1 0.7 68.2 0.7

833.5 1.7 30.6 -0.5 802.9 1.8 64.8 1.9 172.6 1.4 42.5 82.5 48 14 1.7 70.8 1.1 189.8 3.6 97.3 1.5 71.9 0.5 33.8 1.7 19.2 0.7 68.7 0.8

847.9 1.7 30.5 -0.5 817.5 1.8 66.1 2.1 174.9 1.3 43.5 82.9 48.9 14.2 1.6 71.6 1.2 196.8 3.7 98.6 1.4 72.2 0.4 34.4 1.7 19.4 0.7 69.3 0.7

80234.3 1625.2 1.6 801.8 1.1 3.4 13114 9644 3470

83081.1 1650.3 1.5 812.4 1.3 3.4 13003 9511 3492

86032.6 1675.8 1.5 823.5 1.4 3.4 12833 9338 3495

89078.5 1701.4 1.5 834.9 1.4 3.5 12687 9192 3495

92203.2 1727 1.5 846.1 1.3 3.5 12525 9030 3496

95476.2 1752.8 1.5 857.5 1.3 3.5 12545 9036 3509

98903.6 102345.6 105746.2 1778.9 1805.2 1832 1.5 1.5 1.5 869.2 881.1 893.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 12687 12725 12538 9167 9194 9004 3520 3531 3534

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

61

J ack s o n vi l l e

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

162.6 5.4 81 81.6 92.6 3.3 87.4 49.8 87.6 3.4

171.3 5.4 85 86.3 95.6 3.2 90.8 50.7 90.6 3.4

180.7 5.5 89.3 91.4 98.8 3.3 94.4 51.6 93.7 3.4

190.4 5.4 93.7 96.8 102.1 3.3 98.1 52.5 96.8 3.3

200.7 5.4 98.3 102.4 105.4 3.3 101.9 53.5 100 3.3

211.5 5.4 103.2 108.3 108.8 3.3 105.9 54.5 103.2 3.3

223 5.4 108.5 114.5 112.4 3.3 110.1 55.5 106.7 3.4

235.3 5.5 114 121.2 116.2 3.3 114.5 56.6 110.4 3.4

248.4 5.6 120 128.4 120.1 3.4 119.3 57.7 114.3 3.5

946.5 1.6 29.3 -0.3 917.2 1.7 80.3 3.5 191.7 1.2 50.2 87 55 16 2.1 77.9 1.3 237.2 2.8 106.8 1.1 75.3 0.7 38.7 1.7 20.4 -2.1 72.8 0.7

962.4 1.7 29.2 -0.3 933.2 1.7 83 3.3 194 1.2 51.2 87.8 55.6 16.4 2.2 79 1.3 243.9 2.8 108.1 1.2 75.8 0.6 39.3 1.8 20.5 0.7 73.2 0.6

978.8 1.7 29.1 -0.4 949.7 1.8 85.5 3.1 196.2 1.1 52.1 88.6 56.1 16.7 2.2 80 1.4 251.2 3 109.3 1.1 76.3 0.7 40 1.7 20.7 0.7 73.7 0.7

995.8 1.7 29 -0.4 966.8 1.8 88.2 3.1 198.1 1 52.9 89.2 56.6 17.1 2.2 81.1 1.4 259.6 3.3 110.4 1 76.6 0.4 40.6 1.6 20.8 0.7 74.2 0.7

1012.3 1.7 28.9 -0.3 983.4 1.7 90.7 2.9 199.8 0.8 53.7 89.9 56.9 17.5 2.2 82.1 1.2 268.1 3.3 111.3 0.8 77 0.5 41.3 1.6 21 0.7 74.7 0.7

1029.2 1.7 28.8 -0.2 1000.4 1.7 93.3 2.9 201.2 0.7 54.4 90.4 57 17.9 2.2 83.1 1.2 277.2 3.4 112.2 0.8 77.2 0.3 41.9 1.6 21.1 0.7 75.2 0.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

62

Florida & Metro Forecast

903.1 1.5 29.8 -0.6 873.3 1.6 73.4 2.6 184.8 1.5 47.3 85 53 15.1 1.8 75.1 1.1 219.7 2.3 103.3 1.2 73.8 0.6 36.8 1.8 19.9 0.7 71.3 0.7

916.6 1.5 29.6 -0.7 887 1.6 75.3 2.6 187.3 1.3 48.2 85.7 53.8 15.4 1.8 75.9 1.2 224.9 2.4 104.5 1.1 74.4 0.8 37.4 1.7 20.1 0.7 71.8 0.7

931.3 1.6 29.4 -0.7 901.8 1.7 77.6 3.1 189.4 1.1 49.2 86.3 54.4 15.7 1.8 76.9 1.3 230.7 2.6 105.6 1.1 74.8 0.5 38 1.6 20.8 3.8 72.3 0.7

109176.3 112765.5 116601.6 120522.9 124530.9 128744.6 133253.5 137923.3 142820.2 1859.3 1886.7 1914.3 1942 1969.8 1997.8 2025.9 2054.2 2082.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 905.8 918.5 931.4 944.5 957.8 971.3 985 999 1013 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 12239 12103 12133 12072 11811 11683 11677 11685 11701 8715 8598 8641 8595 8360 8260 8286 8338 8398 3524 3505 3492 3477 3451 3424 3391 3347 3303

Lake l a n d

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Lakeland MSA is comprised only of Polk County. It is located in the western center of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus.

It is home to a few attractions, including Cypress Gardens and Fantasy of Flight. Also, the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians conduct spring training in Lakeland and Winter Haven, respectively.

The Lakeland region will experience moderate average quarterly personal income growth of 6.5% over the next three years.

The professional and business services sector will experience the highest growth at an average quarterly rate of 3.5%. The trade, transportation, and utilities sector, educational and health services sector, leisure sector, and state and local government sector will each experience strong growth rates of more than 2%.

Lakeland is expected to rank second in the state in population growth at an average rate of 3.2% over the next three years, and the area will exhibit employment growth at an average quarterly rate of 1.9%.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 561,606 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 272,007 in December 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3.2%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 8,704 unemployed people. (Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 5,634 employees • Lakeland Regional Medical Center – 3,800 employees • GEICO – 2,130 employees • Watson Clinic – 1,200 employees • GC Services – 1,200 employees • Watkins Motor Lines – 848 employees • Rooms To Go – 800 employees • Summit Consulting – 693 employees • ICT Group – 500 employees • McDonald Construction Corp. – 500 employees • Key Safety Systems, Inc. – 500 employees Source: Lakeland Area Chamber of Commerce

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Expanded USF Lakeland closer to reality • A new one-million-square-foot, 500-acre USF campus has been approved to come to Lakeland and will be located along I-4 and the Polk Parkway.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, March 9, 2007 Polk is poised to get a countywide bus system • A new bus system, serving all of Polk County, is coming to the area, which is good news for residents seeking mass transportation.

• Right now, the current bus systems offer transit to only a select few cities in Polk but soon will take on countywide routes.

• Federal grants of $3 million annually will likely continue to aid the combined bus system for about the next six years.

Source: The Ledger, May 5, 2007 First professional business park coming to Lakeland • Burton-Katzman, a development company from Michigan, has already spent $13.3 million to bring a new 600,000 square feet professional business park to Lakeland along I-4.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

63

Lake l a n d

• The Lakeland Economic Development Commission sees this business park as a key element in attracting ‘young professionals’ to Lakeland.

• In order to help Lakeland employers recruit graduating seniors from various universities, the LEDC has joined with Florida Southern College, Southeastern University, and the University of South Florida to make it happen.

Source: The Ledger, May 10, 2007 Consequences of CSX expansion costly • CSX, a North American railroad company, is bringing in an integrated logistic center (ILC) to Winter Haven. Some of the benefits of the ILC include: an annual workforce of up to 2,000 people, benefits and salaries averaging $45,000, 6,500 secondary workers, and a total of $21.8 billion to the city.

• Despite these benefits, many residents are worried about the problems that will arise from the rail system, including increased traffic, environmental problems, and additional services needed to support the new workers and their families, like teachers, deputies, and EMCs. Source: The Ledger, May 20, 2007 Winter Haven Hospital continues its expansion • Construction has begun on a $40 million expansion and renovation project at Winter Haven Hospital.

• The expansion includes a new parking garage, reconfiguration of key areas to increase accessibility, a medical library, a cardiac stepdown recovery unit, and a wellness center, among other additions.

Source: The Ledger, March 27, 2007

64

Florida & Metro Forecast

Publix finishes ‘06 with $1.1 billion in annual earnings • Lakeland-based Publix Supermarkets Inc. reported $1.1 billion for earnings in 2006.

• This marks the first time Publix, who leads all other grocery chains in Florida in market share with 40.3 percent, earned more than one billion dollars.

Source: The Ledger, March 2, 2007 Berry Town Center sells for $25 million • Ormond Beach-based Propteck Realty has just purchased the Berry Town Center in Davenport for $25 million.

• The Town Center zoned for mixed use, contains an office complex and other commercial space, and is anchored by a Publix Supermarket.

• At the time of sale, 98 percent of the complex was already leased.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, March 16, 2007

Lake l a n d Lakeland MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

0.5

2.0

(Millions 2000 $) 45000.0 (percent) 40000.0 35000.0 30000.0 25000.0 20000.0 15000.0 10000.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 5000.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 FL Unemployment Rate Real Gross Metro Product Lakeland Unemployment Rate

Lakeland Real Personal Income

Lakeland Payroll Employment 320.0 300.0 280.0 260.0 240.0 220.0 200.0 180.0 160.0

1.5

Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0%

1.0

(Thousands)

10.0%

(percent change year ago)

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Lakeland Payroll Employment

-2.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

65

Lake l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast* 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

17.8 6.6 8.2 9.7 15.3 4.7 30.6 26.2 36.4 4.1

18.1 6.1 8.2 9.8 15.4 4.5 30.8 26.3 36.6 4.1

18.3 6.4 8.3 10 15.6 4.1 31 26.4 36.8 3.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2009Q4

18.6 6 8.4 10.2 15.8 4 31.2 26.4 37.1 2.4

18.9 6.2 8.5 10.4 16 4.4 31.5 26.5 37.3 2.7

19.2 6.5 8.6 10.6 16.1 4.5 31.8 26.6 37.6 2.8

19.5 6.6 8.7 10.8 16.3 4.5 32.1 26.8 37.9 2.9

19.8 6.6 8.8 11 16.5 4.5 32.3 26.8 38.2 3.1

20.2 6.7 9 11.2 16.7 4.6 32.7 27 38.5 3.2

20.6 6.9 9.1 11.5 16.9 4.7 33.1 27.2 38.9 3.3

20.9 7 9.2 11.7 17.1 4.9 33.5 27.4 39.2 3.4

223.2 1.7 17.5 -3.5 205.8 2.2 16.3 -2.9 49.7 1.3 10.6 26.7 12.4 2.4 -0.2 11.6 2.7 41.3 3 27.4 3.5 17.6 3.6 10 1.6 1.4 2.3 27.9 4.1

223.8 1.2 17.4 -2 206.4 1.5 16.1 -4.1 49.9 1.3 10.7 26.8 12.5 2.4 -1.6 11.7 1.6 41.6 1.1 27.5 3.2 17.6 2.4 10.1 1.7 1.4 1.5 28 3.6

224.8 1.6 17.3 -1.5 207.4 1.9 16 -3.7 50.3 3.1 10.8 27 12.6 2.4 -2.6 11.7 2.2 42.1 0.9 27.6 2.4 17.8 3.3 10.1 1.4 1.4 2.9 28.1 3.3

225.8 1.5 17.3 -1.4 208.6 1.7 15.9 -3.8 50.8 2.5 10.9 27.2 12.7 2.4 -0.6 11.7 0.9 42.4 3.6 27.7 1.3 18 2.9 10.1 0.7 1.4 1.9 28.2 1.3

227 1.7 17.2 -1.6 209.8 2 15.9 -2.7 51.2 2.9 10.9 27.4 12.9 2.4 0.2 11.7 0.7 42.9 3.8 27.9 1.6 18.1 2.7 10.1 0.3 1.4 1.9 28.3 1.4

228.2 2 17.2 -1.2 211 2.2 15.9 -1.2 51.6 3.3 11 27.5 13.1 2.5 1.4 11.8 0.8 43.4 4.1 28.1 1.9 18 2.3 10.1 -0.1 1.4 1 28.3 1.4

229.3 2 17.1 -0.9 212.2 2.3 15.8 -1 52 3.3 11.1 27.7 13.2 2.5 3.2 11.8 1 43.7 4 28.2 2.1 18.1 2 10 -0.2 1.4 0.3 28.5 1.4

230.5 2 17.1 -0.7 213.3 2.3 15.8 -0.6 52.3 2.9 11.2 27.8 13.3 2.5 3.7 11.9 1.4 44.2 4.2 28.4 2.6 18.3 1.6 10.1 0 1.4 -4 28.6 1.5

231.8 2.1 17.2 -0.3 214.7 2.3 15.9 0.2 52.7 2.9 11.3 27.9 13.5 2.5 3.4 11.9 1.5 44.7 4.4 28.5 2.5 18.3 1.1 10.1 0 1.4 -1.5 28.7 1.5

233.1 2.2 17.2 -0.1 216 2.4 16 0.8 53 2.8 11.4 28 13.7 2.5 3.2 12 1.7 45.2 4.3 28.6 2.1 18.3 1.4 10.1 0 1.5 1.6 28.8 1.5

234.3 2.2 17.2 0.1 217.2 2.4 16.1 1.9 53.3 2.6 11.5 28.1 13.8 2.6 2.8 12 1.9 45.6 4.3 28.7 1.7 18.4 1.3 10.1 0.1 1.5 5.5 28.9 1.5

18084.5 582.3 3.7 275.1 2.8 3.8 5277 4886 392

18223.5 587.2 3.6 276.6 1.9 3.9 5563 5097 466

18388.2 591.9 3.5 277.9 2 3.9 5837 5312 525

18569 596.6 3.4 279.2 2.1 3.9 6091 5488 604

18782.7 601 3.2 280.5 2 4 6269 5596 673

18983.3 605.3 3.1 281.8 1.9 4 6476 5720 756

19193 609.6 3 282.9 1.8 4 6616 5830 786

19349.2 613.7 2.9 284.1 1.7 4 6760 5960 800

19562.6 617.6 2.8 285.1 1.7 4 6869 6066 802

19765 621.5 2.7 286.2 1.6 4.1 6961 6145 816

19967.8 625.1 2.5 287.3 1.5 4.1 6999 6221 778

*Quarterly at an annual rate

66

2009Q3

Florida & Metro Forecast

Lake l a n d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

11.1 5.6 5.1 5.9 11.3 3.9 23.1 23.7 28.5 2.7

11.5 4.1 5.5 6 11.5 1.6 23.7 23.7 29.5 3.3

12.2 6 5.7 6.5 12 3.9 24.8 24.3 30 2

12.5 2.1 5.8 6.7 12 0.6 24.9 24 30.5 1.7

13.1 4.7 6 7 12.4 2.7 25.5 24.1 31.7 3.8

14.4 10.2 6.5 7.9 13.3 7.3 27.3 25.2 32.3 1.8

15.7 8.9 7.2 8.5 14 5.9 28.8 25.8 33.5 3.7

16.9 7.7 7.8 9.1 14.7 4.9 29.9 26.1 35.2 5.1

17.9 6.4 8.2 9.7 15.4 4.3 30.7 26.3 36.5 3.8

19.1 6.3 8.6 10.5 16 4.4 31.6 26.6 37.5 2.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

179.5 1.9 21.3 -0.7 158.2 2.2 13.6 -4.2 43.6 3.4 7.9 26.1 9.5 2.1 5.5 8.8 2.5 21 6.7 21.3 2.5 14.4 4.7 7.1 -3.2 1.4 1.7 24.8 -0.1

185.8 3.5 20.2 -5 165.6 4.7 13.8 1.5 45.1 3.4 8.1 27.3 9.7 2.3 11.9 9.6 8.5 23.4 11.1 22.3 5 14.9 3.2 7.2 1.3 1.6 15 25.3 2.1

188.1 1.2 18.9 -6.7 169.3 2.2 14 1.4 45.3 0.6 8.5 26.4 10.4 2.6 9.2 10.3 6.9 26 11.2 22.8 2.1 15.1 1.6 7 -2.6 1.4 -17.6 24.8 -1.9

187.7 -0.3 18.4 -2.2 169.2 0 13.6 -2.8 44 -2.9 8.5 25 10.4 2.4 -4.9 10.8 5.3 26.4 1.5 22.5 -1.3 15.8 4.8 7.4 5.1 1.4 3 24.9 0.1

189.6 1 18.1 -1.8 171.5 1.3 12.9 -5.1 42.1 -4.2 9.1 22.5 10.5 2.2 -7.9 11 2 31.2 18.2 22.9 1.7 15 -5.4 7.5 0.9 1.4 -3 25.3 1.7

200.4 5.7 18.2 0.6 182.2 6.3 14.4 11.4 43.9 4.3 9.4 23.5 11 2.2 -1.1 10.9 -1 36.5 16.9 24.1 5.3 15.3 2.2 8 7.6 1.3 -2.5 25.5 1

212.9 6.2 18.3 0.3 194.6 6.8 16.2 12.6 47.6 8.4 10.3 25.3 12.1 2.3 3 11.1 1.7 39 6.9 25.6 6.1 16.5 7.7 9 11.9 1.4 4.4 26 2

219.9 3.3 17.9 -1.9 202 3.8 16.7 3 49 3 10.6 26.2 12.3 2.4 7.3 11.4 2.9 40.5 4 26.6 4 17.1 3.6 9.9 9.8 1.4 -0.6 26.9 3.4

223.6 1.7 17.4 -2.8 206.1 2.1 16.2 -2.7 49.9 1.7 10.7 26.8 12.4 2.4 -1 11.6 1.9 41.5 2.3 27.5 3.3 17.6 3.1 10 1.7 1.4 3.6 27.9 3.8

227.6 1.8 17.2 -1.3 210.4 2 15.9 -2.2 51.4 3 11 27.4 13 2.4 1 11.7 0.8 43.1 3.9 28 1.7 18.1 2.5 10.1 0.2 1.4 1.3 28.3 1.4

12254.9 479.1 1.5 209.9 1.2 5.1 3985 3122 863

12718.7 486.3 1.5 231.2 10.2 4.1 4900 3640 1260

13122.7 493 1.4 236.2 2.1 5 4616 4014 602

13395.9 501.3 1.7 236.7 0.2 5.8 5022 4571 451

14052.4 512 2.1 239.4 1.2 5.6 6903 6271 632

15222 526.1 2.8 248.5 3.8 4.9 9250 8462 789

16701.9 544.4 3.5 259.8 4.6 4 13045 11914 1132

17688.8 564.2 3.6 269.1 3.6 3.5 10144 8917 1227

18164.3 584.7 3.6 275.8 2.5 3.8 5395 4990 405

18882 603.1 3.2 281.1 1.9 4 6363 5658 705

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

67

Lake l a n d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

20.4 6.8 9 11.3 16.8 4.7 32.9 27.1 38.7 3.2

21.8 7 9.5 12.3 17.6 4.9 34.5 27.8 40.1 3.5

23.2 6.5 10 13.2 18.4 4.4 36.1 28.6 41.4 3.3

24.5 5.6 10.5 14 19 3.6 37.6 29.2 42.8 3.4

25.8 5.2 11 14.8 19.7 3.2 39 29.7 44.2 3.3

27.2 5.4 11.4 15.8 20.3 3.4 40.5 30.3 45.6 3.2

28.7 5.6 11.9 16.8 21.1 3.6 42.2 31 47 3.1

30.3 5.6 12.4 17.9 21.8 3.6 43.9 31.6 48.5 3.1

32 5.7 13 19.1 22.6 3.7 45.8 32.3 50 3.1

33.8 5.6 13.5 20.3 23.4 3.6 47.7 33 51.5 3.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

68

Florida & Metro Forecast

232.4 2.1 17.2 -0.3 215.3 2.3 16 0.6 52.8 2.8 11.3 27.9 13.6 2.5 3.3 11.9 1.6 44.9 4.3 28.6 2.2 18.3 1.3 10.1 0 1.4 0.4 28.7 1.5

237.3 2.1 17.2 0.3 220.1 2.2 16.3 2.1 53.9 2.2 11.7 28.2 14.1 2.6 2.6 12.2 2 46.7 4 29 1.6 18.5 1.2 10.1 0.4 1.6 9.8 29.1 1.4

241.7 1.8 17.2 -0.2 224.5 2 16.5 1.2 54.9 1.7 11.9 28.3 14.6 2.6 2 12.4 1.7 48.6 4.1 29.6 2 18.8 1.2 10.2 0.7 1.5 -7.6 29.5 1.1

244.8 1.3 17.1 -0.5 227.7 1.4 16.5 -0.1 55.4 1.1 12.1 28.4 15 2.7 1.7 12.4 0.6 50.2 3.2 30.1 1.6 18.9 0.6 10.2 0.5 1.5 0.9 29.8 1.1

247.2 1 17 -0.6 230.3 1.1 16.4 -0.5 55.9 0.9 12.3 28.4 15.3 2.7 1.5 12.5 0.3 51.6 2.8 30.4 0.9 18.9 0 10.2 0.2 1.5 0.8 30.1 1.1

249.8 1 16.9 -0.3 232.8 1.1 16.4 0.1 56.4 0.8 12.5 28.3 15.7 2.8 1.2 12.5 0.3 53.2 3 30.6 0.7 18.8 -0.3 10.3 0.1 1.5 0.8 30.4 1

252.5 1.1 16.9 0 235.6 1.2 16.5 0.4 56.8 0.8 12.7 28.1 16.1 2.8 1.2 12.6 0.4 54.9 3.2 30.8 0.9 18.7 -0.4 10.3 0.3 1.5 0.7 30.6 0.8

255.4 1.1 17 0.2 238.4 1.2 16.6 0.6 57.3 0.9 13 27.9 16.6 2.8 1.1 12.6 0.3 56.6 3.1 31.1 0.7 18.6 -0.5 10.3 0.4 1.5 0.7 30.9 0.8

258.4 1.2 17 0.2 241.4 1.2 16.7 0.5 57.8 0.8 13.2 27.6 17.1 2.9 0.8 12.6 0.1 58.4 3.3 31.4 1 18.5 -0.8 10.4 0.5 1.5 0.7 31.2 0.9

261.2 1.1 17 0 244.2 1.2 16.7 0.3 58.2 0.6 13.5 27.5 17.3 2.9 0.5 12.7 0.5 60.3 3.1 31.7 1.1 18.4 -0.6 10.4 0.3 1.5 0.7 31.4 0.7

19661.2 619.5 2.7 285.7 1.6 4 6897 6098 799

20445 632.6 2.1 289.9 1.5 4.1 6766 6046 720

21150.1 642.6 1.6 294.1 1.4 4.2 6411 5801 611

21803.1 652 1.5 298.1 1.4 4.3 6137 5566 570

22451.7 661.5 1.5 301.9 1.3 4.4 5974 5431 544

23155 671 1.4 305.4 1.2 4.4 5986 5383 603

23889.4 680.6 1.4 308.8 1.1 4.5 6068 5362 705

24630.9 690 1.4 312.2 1.1 4.6 6059 5264 795

25400.5 699.6 1.4 315.6 1.1 4.6 5945 5096 849

26199.7 709 1.4 318.8 1 4.6 5812 4936 876

Lake l a n d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

35.6 5.4 14.1 21.5 24.2 3.4 49.6 33.7 53.2 3.2

37.5 5.3 14.7 22.8 25 3.3 51.5 34.4 54.9 3.2

39.5 5.2 15.3 24.1 25.8 3.2 53.5 35 56.6 3.1

41.5 5.3 16 25.5 26.7 3.3 55.6 35.7 58.5 3.3

43.7 5.3 16.8 27 27.5 3.2 57.8 36.4 60.4 3.3

46 5.2 17.5 28.5 28.4 3.2 60.1 37.1 62.4 3.2

48.4 5.2 18.3 30.1 29.3 3.1 62.4 37.8 64.4 3.3

50.9 5.2 19.1 31.8 30.2 3.1 64.9 38.5 66.6 3.3

53.5 5.1 20 33.5 31.1 3 67.3 39.1 68.7 3.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

263.8 1 17 -0.3 246.8 1.1 16.7 -0.4 58.6 0.7 13.8 27.4 17.5 2.9 0.5 12.8 0.7 61.9 2.7 32.1 1.1 18.3 -0.4 10.5 0.4 1.6 1 31.6 0.6

266.8 1.2 16.9 -0.4 249.9 1.3 16.7 -0.1 59.1 0.9 14.1 27.3 17.8 2.9 0.8 12.9 0.8 63.6 2.8 32.5 1.2 18.3 -0.2 10.5 0.6 1.7 9.8 31.8 0.6

269.7 1.1 16.8 -0.4 252.9 1.2 16.7 0.2 59.8 1.1 14.4 27.3 18.1 2.9 1.2 13 0.7 65.3 2.6 32.9 1.4 18.2 -0.1 10.6 0.8 1.6 -7.8 31.9 0.5

273.2 1.3 16.7 -0.4 256.4 1.4 16.7 0.4 60.5 1.2 14.7 27.4 18.5 3 1.3 13.1 0.8 67.1 2.8 33.4 1.4 18.2 -0.1 10.7 0.9 1.6 0.8 32.1 0.6

276.7 1.3 16.7 -0.4 260 1.4 16.9 0.7 61.3 1.3 15 27.4 18.9 3 1.3 13.2 0.8 68.9 2.7 33.8 1.3 18.2 -0.1 10.8 1 1.6 0.8 32.3 0.6

280.2 1.3 16.6 -0.5 263.6 1.4 17 0.8 62 1.2 15.3 27.4 19.3 3.1 1.1 13.3 0.8 70.8 2.8 34.2 1.2 18.2 -0.2 10.9 0.9 1.6 0.8 32.5 0.5

283.4 1.2 16.5 -0.6 266.9 1.3 17.2 1.2 62.7 1.1 15.7 27.4 19.7 3.1 1 13.4 0.9 72.6 2.4 34.6 1 18.1 -0.3 11 0.8 1.6 0.8 32.7 0.6

286.6 1.1 16.4 -0.5 270.2 1.2 17.5 1.7 63.5 1.2 16 27.4 20.1 3.1 1.1 13.5 0.8 74.1 2.1 34.9 0.9 18.1 -0.1 11.1 0.9 1.6 0.8 32.8 0.4

289.6 1 16.3 -0.5 273.3 1.1 17.7 1.5 64.3 1.3 16.3 27.5 20.6 3.2 1.2 13.6 0.7 75.3 1.7 35.3 1 18.1 0 11.2 1 1.7 0.8 33 0.5

26998.5 718.4 1.3 321.9 1 4.7 5703 4802 901

27849.5 727.7 1.3 325.7 1.2 4.7 5548 4654 894

28670.1 737.2 1.3 329.7 1.2 4.8 5326 4495 831

29555.6 746.8 1.3 333.7 1.2 4.8 5154 4341 813

30457.1 756.3 1.3 337.8 1.2 4.9 4986 4184 802

31382.9 765.8 1.3 341.9 1.2 4.9 4971 4123 848

32337.1 775.4 1.3 346 1.2 5 4980 4109 870

33290.8 785.1 1.2 350.3 1.2 5 4928 4054 874

34222.7 794.9 1.2 354.7 1.3 5.1 4802 3908 893

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

69

Lake l a n d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

56.2 4.9 20.8 35.3 32 2.9 69.8 39.8 70.9 3.2

58.9 4.9 21.7 37.2 32.9 2.8 72.3 40.4 73.2 3.2

61.8 4.9 22.6 39.2 33.8 2.8 74.9 41 75.6 3.2

64.8 4.9 23.6 41.3 34.7 2.8 77.7 41.6 77.9 3.1

68 4.9 24.6 43.4 35.7 2.8 80.5 42.3 80.4 3.2

71.2 4.8 25.6 45.6 36.6 2.7 83.4 42.9 82.8 3

74.7 4.9 26.7 48 37.7 2.7 86.4 43.6 85.4 3.1

78.3 4.9 27.8 50.5 38.7 2.7 89.6 44.2 88.1 3.2

82.2 4.9 29 53.2 39.7 2.7 92.9 44.9 90.9 3.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

70

Florida & Metro Forecast

292.4 1 16.2 -0.6 276.2 1.1 18 1.3 65.2 1.4 16.6 27.6 21.1 3.2 1.2 13.7 0.6 76.4 1.4 35.6 1 18.1 0 11.3 1 1.7 0.8 33.1 0.4

295.2 1 16.1 -0.8 279.1 1.1 18.2 1.3 66 1.2 16.9 27.6 21.5 3.2 1.2 13.8 0.7 77.6 1.5 35.9 0.9 18.1 0.1 11.4 0.9 1.7 0.8 33.2 0.4

298.2 1 16 -0.7 282.2 1.1 18.5 1.8 66.6 1 17.2 27.7 21.8 3.3 1.3 13.9 0.8 78.9 1.8 36.3 0.9 18.1 -0.2 11.5 0.8 1.7 3.9 33.4 0.4

301.5 1.1 15.9 -0.4 285.6 1.2 18.9 2.2 67.4 1.1 17.6 27.8 22.1 3.3 1.5 14 0.9 80.5 2 36.6 0.9 18.1 0 11.6 0.9 1.7 -2 33.5 0.4

304.9 1.1 15.9 -0.4 289 1.2 19.3 2 68.1 1 17.9 27.9 22.4 3.4 1.7 14.1 0.8 82.1 2 37 1 18.1 -0.1 11.7 1 1.7 0.8 33.6 0.4

308.4 1.1 15.8 -0.5 292.6 1.2 19.7 1.8 68.7 1 18.2 28 22.7 3.4 1.6 14.3 0.9 83.8 2.1 37.3 0.9 18.1 0 11.8 0.8 1.7 0.8 33.8 0.4

311.9 1.2 15.7 -0.5 296.2 1.2 20 1.8 69.3 0.9 18.5 28 22.9 3.5 1.7 14.4 0.9 85.8 2.4 37.6 0.8 18 -0.3 11.9 0.8 1.8 0.8 33.9 0.4

315.3 1.1 15.7 -0.4 299.6 1.2 20.3 1.6 69.8 0.7 18.7 28.1 23.1 3.5 1.6 14.5 0.8 87.8 2.4 37.9 0.7 18 -0.2 12 0.8 1.8 0.8 34.1 0.4

318.6 1.1 15.6 -0.3 303 1.1 20.7 1.6 70.1 0.5 18.9 28.1 23.2 3.6 1.6 14.6 0.8 90 2.5 38.1 0.6 17.9 -0.4 12.1 0.8 1.8 0.8 34.2 0.4

35152.1 804.7 1.2 359.2 1.3 5.1 4624 3723 901

36119.1 814.5 1.2 363.7 1.3 5.2 4520 3613 907

37147.3 824.4 1.2 368.3 1.3 5.2 4482 3570 912

38186.7 834.2 1.2 373 1.3 5.2 4408 3491 917

39241.1 844.2 1.2 377.7 1.3 5.3 4268 3335 933

40345.8 854.2 1.2 382.5 1.3 5.3 4179 3236 942

41523.6 864.3 1.2 387.3 1.3 5.4 4147 3189 958

42735.8 874.5 1.2 392.2 1.3 5.4 4122 3150 971

43999.2 884.7 1.2 397.1 1.3 5.4 4104 3115 990

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B each

P r o fi l e s The Miami – Fort Lauderdale – Miami Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, this area is home to many sports teams, such as the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins, and the Florida Panthers.

Other major businesses also reside in this metro, including the Miami Seaquarium, the University of Miami, and Florida International University.

Quick Facts: • Metro area population estimate of 5,463,857 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,402,208 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Broward County population estimate of 1,787,636 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,274,013 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 2,838,810 in December 2006 for the metro area (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3.1%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 88,079 unemployed people for the metro area.

(Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Miami-Dade County Public School – 54,387 employees • Miami-Dade County – 32,265 employees • Federal Government – 20,100 employees • Florida State Government – 18,900 employees • Jackson Health System – 11,700 employees • Baptist Health South Florida – 10,300 employees • University of Miami – 9,367 employees

• American Airlines – 9,000 employees • United Parcel Service – 5,000 employees • BellSouth – 4,800 employees Source: Greater Miami Chamber of Commerce

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s The Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach metropolitan area will continue to be the leader in many economic indicators over the next three years, ranking first statewide in average annual wage, gross metropolitan product, and housing starts, despite a cooling housing market.

The professional and business services sector will experience the most growth at an average quarterly growth rate of 4.9%. Trade, transportation, and utilities, education and health services, and financial services will see small increases, hovering around growth rates of 1.5%.

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Already crowded, Broward projected to get 400,000 more residents by 2020 • Broward County’s population is expected to grow by 400,000 people by the year 2020, increasing concerns about the already strained water and highway infrastructure and lack of land available for development.

• Many say that due to this influx of people, Broward County’s landscape will undergo significant changes, some already underway, as multistory, mixed-use developments rise, instead of traditional, single-family homes.

Source: Sun Sentinel, May 13, 2007 FAU slates Davie for expansion • Florida Atlantic University’s board of trustees has approved master plans for massive expansion of the university’s Davie campus.

• The expansions will increase classroom space for biological sciences and business administration to more than 700,000 square feet, up from just over 200,000 square feet.

Source: South Florida Business Journal, March 21, 2007 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

71

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B each

Foreclosures rise as overextended south Floridians struggle with mortgages • Further exacerbating a cooling housing market, many south Floridians are losing their home to foreclosure, due to rising rates and prevalence of sub-prime, interest-only adjustable rate mortgages.

• In March, Broward County had experienced a 331percent increase in the number of homeowners with late payments, as well more than double the foreclosures from a year ago.

Source: Sun Sentinel, April 17, 2007 Forget spring break, Fort Lauderdale is ready to move up • In an effort to escape its “spring break” image of the past, Fort Lauderdale Beach is attempting to reinvent itself as an upscale vacation destination in the same vain as Palm Beach and Miami Beach.

• The first upscale hotel to test the Fort Lauderdale tourism waters is the recently opened St. Regis, which will be followed by “W” and Trump hotels already under construction.

Source: Miami Herald, May 2, 2007 Jackson Memorial opens international center • Days after the announcement of the University of Miami Medical School’s plans to develop a global institute with the potential of establishing hospitals in Latin America, Jackson Memorial Hospital announced it will do something similar.

• The announcement fuels concerns that the two long-standing partners could be going separate ways after news that UM, who has for years used Jackson as its teaching hospital, is pursuing the purchase of Cedars Medical Center.

Source: Miami Herald, May 16, 2007

72

Florida & Metro Forecast

Prices are rising faster for South Florida than rest of the nation • The cost of living is rising faster in the MiamiFort Lauderdale metropolitan area than the rest of the country, as evidenced by consumer price indices for March and April that indicate a rise at a 3.5 percent annual pace as compared to 2.6 percent nationally.

• The rising price of gasoline is cited as a major factor in the increase.

Source: Sun Sentinel, May 16, 2007 Local airports plan to keep up with demand • Airports Council International - North America recently released a report advocating $87.4 billion in improvements to local airports to keep up with demand.

• The improvements would have to go toward runways, terminals, and gates to maintain pace with increased customer and air-cargo demand.

Source: South Florida Business Journal, March 16, 2007 South Florida rental market eases • Renters in south Florida will begin to find the market a bit easier, as apartment vacancy rates across south Florida have risen to 3.9 percent, up from 3.4 percent for Miami and 2.7 percent for Fort Lauderdale a year ago.

Source: Miami Herald, May 9, 2007

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B each Miami - Fort Lauderdale - Miami Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

0.3

Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate 7.0%

(percent)

1.5

Miami Real Gross Metro Product 600000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

300000.0

4.0%

200000.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 100000.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 FL Unemployment Rate Real Gross Metro Product Miami Unemployment Rate

Miami Real Personal Income

Miami Payroll Employment (Thousands)

8.0%

3500.0

6.0%

3000.0

4.0%

2500.0

2.0%

2000.0

0.0%

1500.0

1.2

400000.0

5.0%

4000.0

0.9

500000.0

6.0%

3.0%

0.6

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Miami Payroll Employment

-2.0%

(percent change year ago)

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

73

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B each

Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast* 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

228.9 5.9 112.9 116.1 196.3 4 41.5 35.6 45.9 4.2

231.8 5.6 113.9 117.8 198 4 42 35.9 46.3 4.3

235 5.6 115.1 119.9 200 3.4 42.5 36.1 46.7 3.7

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2443.7 1.4 98.4 -2.1 2345.3 1.6 160.7 -0.7 547.5 1 146.2 306.5 94.8 53.6 -1.1 186.1 1.6 405.8 1.4 309 1.7 255.6 2.3 103.1 2.6 34.3 0.6 289.6 3.7

193002.9 5511.1 0.9 2816.7 2.2 3.4 21296 11164 10132

*Quarterly at an annual rate

74

Florida & Metro Forecast

2009Q4

238.3 5.4 116.4 122 201.8 3.5 43 36.4 47 2.8

242.1 5.7 117.8 124.3 204 4 43.5 36.7 47.4 3.2

246 6.1 119.5 126.5 206.3 4.2 44.1 37 47.8 3.2

250 6.4 121.2 128.9 208.6 4.3 44.7 37.3 48.2 3.3

254.2 6.7 123 131.2 210.9 4.5 45.3 37.6 48.6 3.4

258.7 6.8 124.8 133.8 213.6 4.7 46 38 49.1 3.5

263.2 7 126.8 136.4 216.3 4.8 46.7 38.3 49.5 3.6

267.8 7.1 128.8 139 219 5 47.3 38.7 50 3.7

2461.4 1 96.6 -2.3 2364.8 1.1 157.6 -2.9 552.5 1.1 146.7 309.1 96.7 52.7 -1.8 186.1 0.2 416.6 3.2 311 1.2 257.3 1.1 104 1.3 34.8 1.8 292.2 1.2

2472.3 1.2 96.1 -2.3 2376.2 1.3 157.3 -2.1 554.6 1.3 147 310.4 97.4 53 -1.2 186.4 0.2 422.5 4.1 312 1 258.3 1.1 104.2 1 34.9 1.7 292.9 1.1

2486 1.6 95.8 -1.9 2390.2 1.8 157.7 -0.8 556.9 1.7 147.5 311.3 98.2 53.2 -0.3 187 0.5 431.9 5.5 313.5 1.2 256.9 0.9 104.4 0.7 34.9 0.9 293.7 1.1

2500.2 1.9 95.5 -1.6 2404.7 2.1 157.6 -0.4 559.4 1.8 147.9 312.8 99 53.4 1.1 187.7 1 440.2 6.6 314.6 1.3 257.7 0.8 104.5 0.6 34.8 0.2 294.8 1.1

2515.1 2.2 95.3 -1.4 2419.9 2.3 158.3 0.5 561.4 1.6 148.4 313.4 99.8 53.6 1.5 188.5 1.3 448.5 7.7 315.7 1.5 258.8 0.6 104.7 0.7 34.7 -0.3 295.7 1.2

2531.4 2.4 95.1 -1.1 2436.4 2.5 159.5 1.4 564 1.7 149 314.5 100.7 53.7 1.4 189.2 1.5 457.8 8.4 316.8 1.5 259.1 0.3 104.8 0.6 34.8 -0.4 296.7 1.3

2547.6 2.5 94.9 -1 2452.7 2.6 161 2.1 566.4 1.7 149.9 315.1 101.7 53.9 1.4 190.3 1.7 466.8 8.1 317.7 1.3 258.9 0.8 105 0.5 34.9 0.1 297.8 1.4

2562.9 2.5 94.7 -0.8 2468.1 2.6 162.4 3.1 568.8 1.7 150.6 315.9 102.5 54.1 1.3 191.3 1.9 474 7.7 318.2 1.1 259.9 0.9 105.2 0.6 35.3 1.4 298.9 1.4

194122 195422.3 196967.5 198985.4 201095.4 203342.4 205132.3 207417.8 5522.6 5534.2 5546.6 5560.2 5574.4 5589.9 5606.5 5624.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 2824.7 2834.1 2844.6 2854.9 2864.9 2875.9 2887.5 2900.3 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 22217 22879 23809 24540 25631 26674 27772 28585 11719 12285 12839 13316 13852 14508 15234 15827 10498 10595 10970 11223 11779 12167 12538 12758

209639.1 5642.5 1.2 2912.9 1.7 3.7 29381 16356 13025

211831.7 5661.3 1.3 2925.5 1.7 3.8 30031 16858 13173

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

2009Q3

2446.5 1 97.7 -2.1 2348.9 1.2 159 -1.6 547.4 1.4 146.2 305.9 95.3 53.3 -1.1 186 2.1 409.5 2.6 309.9 1.8 254.7 1.5 103.7 1.5 34.6 1.7 290.6 -0.9

2452.8 0.9 97.1 -2.8 2355.7 1 158.3 -2.6 549.5 1.3 146.4 307.2 95.9 52.8 -1.5 185.8 0.9 412.8 2.7 310.6 1.1 255.7 0.8 103.9 0.1 34.7 1.9 291.6 1.1

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B each

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

144.7 4.9 71.4 73.3 148.3 3.2 29.3 30 33.9 5

157 8.5 77.8 79.3 157 5.9 31.2 31.2 35.7 5.1

163.9 4.4 82 81.9 160.5 2.2 31.9 31.3 36.8 3.2

169.8 3.6 84.1 85.7 164 2.2 32.5 31.4 37.8 2.7

174 2.5 87.6 86.4 164.8 0.5 32.9 31.2 39.2 3.8

190.4 9.4 93.4 97 175.7 6.6 35.5 32.8 40.6 3.6

203.5 6.8 100.8 102.7 182.5 3.9 37.5 33.6 42.2 4

218.1 7.2 107.9 110.1 190.4 4.3 39.9 34.8 44.4 5.1

230.5 5.7 113.5 117 197.3 3.7 41.8 35.8 46.2 3.9

244.1 5.9 118.7 125.4 205.2 4 43.8 36.9 47.6 3.1

2210.2 -0.1 112.4 -8.6 2097.9 0.4 118.8 -1.1 515.3 -1.5 132 286.1 97.1 61.8 -6.1 162.4 1.8 341 0.6 273.9 4.1 224.4 -1.1 93.6 0.3 32.1 1.3 274.8 2.5

2218.1 0.4 103.4 -8 2114.8 0.8 120.3 1.3 509.8 -1.1 133.9 282 93.9 57.5 -6.9 163.9 1 344.2 0.9 283.3 3.4 228.9 2 95.4 2 34.1 6.2 277.4 1

2285.3 3 100.8 -2.5 2184.5 3.3 129.4 7.6 516.3 1.3 138.2 284.9 93.2 56.6 -1.6 169.6 3.5 368.8 7.1 292.8 3.4 239.8 4.7 97.3 2 34.2 0.4 279.9 0.9

2372.1 3.8 101.1 0.3 2271 4 145.3 12.3 529.4 2.5 140.8 293.3 95.3 55.9 -1.1 177.8 4.8 397.3 7.7 300.8 2.7 247 3 98.6 1.3 34.5 1 284.4 1.6

2416.9 1.9 100.4 -0.7 2316.5 2 160.6 10.6 540.9 2.2 143.8 301.9 95.3 54 -3.4 182.8 2.8 399.9 0.7 304.7 1.3 251.1 1.6 101.5 3 34.1 -1.3 286.9 0.9

2445.3 1.2 98 -2.3 2347.2 1.3 160.1 -0.3 547.7 1.3 146.2 306.4 95.1 53.4 -1.2 185.9 1.7 407.9 2 309.2 1.5 255.1 1.6 103.3 1.8 34.5 1.1 290.1 1.1

2480 1.4 96 -2 2384 1.6 157.6 -1.6 555.9 1.5 147.3 310.9 97.8 53.1 -0.6 186.8 0.5 427.8 4.9 312.8 1.2 257.6 0.9 104.3 0.9 34.9 1.2 293.4 1.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2090.1 1.8 138.7 -2.7 1951.4 2.1 108.4 4.1 512.5 2.4 119.3 292.1 101.1 56.2 6.2 155.3 -0.7 283.4 5.6 253.2 0.7 211.3 0.9 92.9 1.4 31.3 0.6 246.9 0.9

2167 3.7 133.4 -3.8 2033.5 4.2 117 7.9 521.4 1.7 123.8 296.7 100.9 61.7 9.9 157.5 1.4 313.5 10.6 256.5 1.3 219.3 3.8 95.9 3.2 32.8 4.7 257.9 4.4

2213.1 2.1 122.9 -7.9 2090.2 2.8 120 2.6 523.1 0.3 130.9 293 99.1 65.8 6.6 159.4 1.2 338.9 8.1 263 2.5 226.9 3.5 93.3 -2.7 31.7 -3.5 268.1 3.9

139368.3 144876.8 150557.3 153878.5 159386.5 168930.6 181151.6 189461.6 193618.8 200097.7 4944.7 5040.1 5130.3 5216.9 5285.4 5359.8 5427.3 5469.9 5516.7 5567.8 2 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.3 0.8 0.9 0.9 2433.2 2500.4 2545.7 2568.2 2589.1 2634.4 2706.7 2764.3 2820.6 2860.1 0.7 2.8 1.8 0.9 0.8 1.7 2.7 2.1 2 1.4 5.2 4.4 5.3 6.2 5.7 5.1 4.1 3.5 3.4 3.6 36342 34456 36290 38407 38960 41565 42253 32878 21131 25163 22865 22853 24052 22356 23961 24128 22919 16707 11187 13629 13477 11602 12237 16051 14999 17437 19334 16170 9944 11535

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

75

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B each

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

261 6.9 125.9 135.1 215 4.8 46.3 38.2 49.3 3.6

279.5 7.1 133.7 145.8 225.8 5.1 48.9 39.5 51.2 3.8

297.1 6.3 140.9 156.2 235.3 4.2 51.3 40.6 53 3.6

314.2 5.8 148 166.3 244.1 3.7 53.4 41.5 54.9 3.6

331.8 5.6 155 176.8 252.8 3.6 55.5 42.3 56.9 3.5

350.6 5.7 162.6 188.1 262.2 3.7 57.9 43.3 58.8 3.4

370.7 5.7 170.5 200.2 272.1 3.8 60.3 44.3 60.8 3.4

391.9 5.7 178.7 213.2 282.3 3.7 62.9 45.3 62.9 3.4

414.3 5.7 187.3 227.1 292.7 3.7 65.6 46.3 65 3.4

438 5.7 196.3 241.7 303.5 3.7 68.4 47.4 67.2 3.4

2680.5 1.4 93.1 -0.8 2587.4 1.5 171.5 1 586.9 1 157.3 319.6 110.3 56.4 1.7 197.2 0.6 532.8 3.5 325.2 1.1 266.4 0.7 107.7 0.7 35.5 0.7 308.1 1.1

2714.1 1.3 92.2 -0.9 2621.9 1.3 172.4 0.5 591.7 0.8 159.4 320 112.6 57.2 1.5 197.8 0.3 551.5 3.5 329 1.2 267.1 0.2 108.2 0.5 35.7 0.7 311.3 1

2751.2 1.4 91.5 -0.7 2659.7 1.4 174.5 1.2 596.5 0.8 161.8 320 115 57.9 1.3 198.5 0.4 573.6 4 332.5 1 267.1 0 108.8 0.5 36 0.7 314.3 1

2790.1 1.4 91.1 -0.5 2699.1 1.5 177.9 1.9 601 0.7 164.5 319.1 117.8 58.7 1.2 199.4 0.5 596.5 4 335.9 1 266.8 -0.1 109.6 0.8 36.2 0.6 317.1 0.9

2829.2 1.4 90.8 -0.3 2738.4 1.5 181.9 2.2 605.9 0.8 167.6 317.7 120.9 59.3 1.1 200.1 0.3 619.4 3.8 338.6 0.8 266.4 -0.1 110.6 0.9 36.4 0.6 319.7 0.8

2868.5 1.4 90.6 -0.2 2777.9 1.4 185.7 2.1 610.7 0.8 170.9 316.1 124 59.9 1 200.2 0.1 643.1 3.8 341.8 0.9 265.7 -0.3 111.5 0.8 36.6 0.6 322.6 0.9

2907.6 1.4 90.2 -0.4 2817.4 1.4 189 1.8 615.2 0.7 174.5 315.2 125.7 60.4 0.8 201.1 0.4 667.1 3.7 345.5 1.1 265.1 -0.2 112.2 0.7 36.9 0.6 325 0.8

208505.2 217078.3 224428.3 231715.5 239295.4 247625.9 256325.8 265175.8 274331.4 5633.6 5710.7 5795.1 5884.5 5973.4 6060.7 6146.7 6231.9 6317.7 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 2906.6 2955 2998.1 3040.5 3081.3 3120.2 3155.3 3187.9 3220.8 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.1 1 1 3.7 3.8 4 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 28942 30603 30881 30915 31378 32111 33056 33559 33840 16069 17309 17599 17846 18206 18581 18992 19026 18773 12874 13294 13282 13069 13173 13530 14064 14533 15067

283884 6403.3 1.4 3253.2 1 4.4 34101 18522 15579

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

76

Florida & Metro Forecast

2539.3 2.4 95 -1.1 2444.3 2.5 160.3 1.7 565.1 1.7 149.5 314.7 101.2 53.8 1.4 189.8 1.6 461.8 7.9 317.1 1.4 259.2 0.6 104.9 0.6 34.9 0.2 297.3 1.3

2599.9 2.4 94.4 -0.6 2505.5 2.5 165.8 3.4 573.8 1.5 152.4 317 104.6 54.5 1.3 193.4 1.9 492.5 6.7 319.9 0.9 262 1.1 105.8 0.8 36.7 5 301.2 1.3

2644 1.7 93.8 -0.6 2550.1 1.8 169.8 2.4 581.3 1.3 155.1 318.6 107.8 55.4 1.6 196 1.3 514.7 4.5 321.6 0.5 264.7 1 106.9 1.1 35.2 -3.9 304.6 1.1

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B each

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

462.4 5.6 205.8 256.6 314.3 3.6 71.3 48.4 69.6 3.5

488.1 5.5 216 272 325.5 3.6 74.2 49.5 72 3.5

514.2 5.4 226.4 287.8 336.5 3.4 77.2 50.5 74.4 3.4

542.1 5.4 237.8 304.3 348.1 3.4 80.3 51.6 77 3.5

571.5 5.4 250 321.5 359.9 3.4 83.6 52.7 79.7 3.5

602.4 5.4 262.9 339.5 372 3.4 87 53.7 82.5 3.5

635.1 5.4 276.4 358.7 384.4 3.3 90.6 54.9 85.5 3.6

669.5 5.4 290.5 379 397.1 3.3 94.3 56 88.6 3.6

704.5 5.2 304.8 399.7 409.6 3.1 98.1 57 91.7 3.5

3077.5 1.5 87.3 -0.9 2990.3 1.6 199.8 1.7 639 1.1 189.4 317.8 132 63.1 1.4 207.3 0.8 763.3 3.4 363.5 1.3 267.1 0.2 116.7 1.2 37.8 0.6 332.6 0.5

3125 1.5 86.6 -0.8 3038.4 1.6 203.6 1.9 646.1 1.1 193 319.1 134.1 64 1.5 208.9 0.7 789.5 3.4 368.1 1.3 267.7 0.2 118.1 1.3 38 0.6 334.4 0.5

3174.1 1.6 85.9 -0.8 3088.1 1.6 207.8 2.1 653.2 1.1 196.9 320.2 136.1 64.9 1.4 210.5 0.8 817.4 3.5 372.4 1.2 268 0.1 119.5 1.2 38.2 0.6 336.2 0.5

3221.8 1.5 85.3 -0.8 3136.5 1.6 212.9 2.4 660.2 1.1 201 321.1 138.2 65.7 1.3 212.4 0.9 843.6 3.2 376.1 1 268.2 0.1 120.8 1.1 38.5 0.6 338.1 0.6

3268.4 1.4 84.7 -0.6 3183.7 1.5 218.8 2.8 667.1 1.1 204.6 322.1 140.4 66.6 1.4 214.4 0.9 867.5 2.8 379.5 0.9 268.9 0.3 122.3 1.2 38.7 0.6 339.9 0.5

3312.9 1.4 84.2 -0.6 3228.7 1.4 224.8 2.7 674.7 1.1 208.1 323.6 142.9 67.7 1.5 216.2 0.8 888.2 2.4 383.1 0.9 269.8 0.3 123.9 1.3 38.9 0.6 341.6 0.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2946.4 1.3 89.5 -0.7 2856.8 1.4 191 1.1 619.8 0.8 178.4 315.1 126.6 60.8 0.7 202.5 0.7 690.5 3.5 349.6 1.2 265.2 0.1 113.1 0.7 37.2 0.8 327 0.6

2989.8 1.5 88.8 -0.8 2901 1.5 193.5 1.3 625.4 0.9 182 315.7 128 61.4 0.9 204.1 0.8 714.5 3.5 353.9 1.2 265.9 0.3 114.1 0.9 38.9 4.8 329.1 0.6

3031.6 1.4 88 -0.8 2943.6 1.5 196.5 1.5 632 1 185.6 316.7 129.8 62.2 1.4 205.8 0.8 737.9 3.3 358.8 1.4 266.6 0.2 115.3 1.1 37.6 -3.6 330.9 0.5

293594.9 303769.8 313804.8 324388.9 335228.3 346558.3 358379.1 370205.5 381856.4 6489.5 6575.4 6662 6748.8 6834.7 6920.8 7007.8 7095.2 7184.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 3285.7 3324.3 3365.7 3407.4 3448.7 3490.7 3533.4 3577 3622.2 1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 34195 34305 34275 34422 34623 35010 35615 36160 36333 18275 18039 17793 17593 17396 17435 17703 17781 17474 15920 16266 16482 16829 17227 17576 17912 18379 18859

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

77

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B each

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

740.6 5.1 319.3 421.2 421.9 3 101.8 58 94.8 3.5

778.3 5.1 334.6 443.7 434.5 3 105.7 59 98.1 3.4

818.6 5.2 351 467.6 447.7 3 109.8 60.1 101.5 3.5

860.7 5.1 368 492.7 461.2 3 114.1 61.1 104.8 3.3

905 5.1 386 519 475.2 3 118.5 62.2 108.3 3.3

951.4 5.1 404.9 546.5 489.5 3 123.1 63.4 111.9 3.3

1001 5.2 425.2 575.8 504.7 3.1 128.1 64.6 115.7 3.4

1053.6 5.3 446.6 607 520.4 3.1 133.3 65.8 119.7 3.5

1110 5.3 469.6 640.4 536.7 3.1 138.8 67.1 123.9 3.5

3499.2 1.5 81.6 -0.5 3417.5 1.6 252.3 3.5 703.8 1 222.4 331.2 149.9 72.2 1.9 224 1 976.4 2.7 397.4 0.9 273.7 0.4 130 1.2 39.9 -2.2 347.9 0.5

3552.2 1.5 81.2 -0.5 3471 1.6 260.7 3.3 710.7 1 225.9 333.3 151.1 73.7 2 226.2 1 1002.9 2.7 401.3 1 274.3 0.3 131.7 1.3 40.2 0.6 349.4 0.4

3607.4 1.6 80.7 -0.6 3526.7 1.6 268.6 3 717.2 0.9 229 335.7 152 75.1 2 228.5 1 1032.2 2.9 405 0.9 275.4 0.4 133.3 1.2 40.4 0.6 351 0.5

3665 1.6 80.2 -0.6 3584.8 1.6 276.8 3.1 723 0.8 232.1 337.5 152.8 76.7 2 230.9 1 1065.5 3.2 408.2 0.8 275.7 0.1 134.8 1.1 40.6 0.6 352.6 0.5

3721.2 1.5 79.8 -0.5 3641.4 1.6 284.6 2.8 727.6 0.6 234.5 339.3 153.1 78.2 2 233 0.9 1099.3 3.2 410.9 0.7 276.3 0.2 136.3 1.1 40.9 0.6 354.2 0.4

3778.9 1.6 79.4 -0.4 3699.4 1.6 292.8 2.9 731.4 0.5 236.8 340.8 153.1 79.7 2 235.2 0.9 1135.9 3.3 413.4 0.6 276.3 0 137.8 1.1 41.1 0.6 355.7 0.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

78

Florida & Metro Forecast

3355.8 1.3 83.5 -0.8 3272.2 1.3 230.5 2.6 682.8 1.2 211.4 325.5 145.7 68.7 1.6 217.8 0.7 907.3 2.1 386.7 0.9 270.7 0.3 125.4 1.3 39.1 0.6 343.2 0.5

3399.8 1.3 82.8 -0.9 3317.1 1.4 236.5 2.6 690.3 1.1 214.9 327.6 147.6 69.8 1.5 219.6 0.8 927.5 2.2 390.3 0.9 271.9 0.5 127 1.2 39.4 0.6 344.7 0.4

3447.4 1.4 82.1 -0.9 3365.3 1.5 243.8 3.1 696.6 0.9 218.7 329.1 148.6 70.9 1.6 221.7 1 950.5 2.5 393.8 0.9 272.6 0.2 128.4 1.1 40.8 3.7 346.3 0.5

393580 405845.6 418951.3 432324.2 445975.9 460346.6 475740.4 7274.3 7364.6 7454.9 7545.1 7635.3 7725.5 7815.8 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 3668.7 3715.9 3764 3812.8 3862.4 3912.8 3964 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 4.8 4.9 4.9 5 5 5.1 5.1 36198 36287 36679 36932 36768 36818 37054 17000 16831 16944 16901 16533 16403 16492 19198 19456 19735 20031 20235 20415 20562

491667 508368.8 7906.3 7996.4 1.2 1.1 4016 4068.5 1.3 1.3 5.1 5.2 37227 37408 16623 16768 20604 20640

Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Naples – Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier County only. Located on the southwest coast of Florida, the area is notable for numerous recreation and leisure activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the “Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida.”

The Naples-Marco Island region is expected to dominate many economic indicators, ranking first statewide in average quarterly personal income growth at 7.4%. Additionally, the region is expected to rank second in the state in housing starts and employment growth.

The professional and business services sector will experience the most growth at 4.4%, and the leisure sector and state and local government sector will both show strong gains at average quarterly changes of 3.6% over the next three years.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 314,649 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 155,968 in December 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 2.4%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 3,763 unemployed people. (Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Collier County School Board – 3,350 employees • NCH Healthcare Systems – 2,700 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,755 employees • Collier County Government – 1,060 employees • Marriott Corporation – 860 employees • County Sheriff’s Department – 838 employees • Winn Dixie Stores, Inc. – 760 employees • The Ritz-Carlton, Naples – 758 employees • Naples Registry Resort – 600 employees • Collier Enterprises – 500 employees Source: Naples Homes Real Estate and Relocation Services

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Naples, Marco among “Best Cities for Doing Business” • The Naples-Marco Island metropolitan area ranked sixth, out of 393 regions, as the best region for doing business in the country, according to Inc. Magazine.

• The five-year job growth rate in Naples-Marco Island was 28.5 percent, and population growth in the area is believed to be a big contributor.

Source: Naples Daily News, May 4, 2007 County tourist collections up in ‘07 • In the first quarter of ’07, $6.78 million was collected in tourist taxes in Collier County, up 5.7 percent from the first quarter of ’06.

• Visitors spent a total of $296 million in the county, up 7.3 percent from the first quarter of ’06.

• Hotel prices increased each month in response to the spending increases.

Source: Marco Island Sun Times, May 3, 2007 System puts I-75 on fast track • I-75 will soon be expanding from four lanes to six lanes from Colonial Boulevard in Fort Myers to Golden Gate Parkway in Naples, which is about a 30-mile stretch of road.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

79

Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d

• A method called design-build, which is “a project in which the design and construction crews form one team,” is expected to cut the costs and time required to complete the expansion.

• The entire project is expected to be finished in 2010, with a cost of $430 million.

Source: News-Press Southwest Florida, May 14, 2007 $12 million, new name for local college • International College has changed its name to Hodges University due to a $12 million donation by Naples philanthropists Earl and Thelma Hodges.

• Although no specific plans have been made for the donation, the money is expected to be spent on new classes, buildings, and hopefully doctorate programs and is the single largest donation to any public or private institution in Collier County history.

Source: Naples Daily News, May 15, 2007 Affordable housing set to rise in Bonita • Developer Mitchell & Stark hope to begin construction this summer of 39 affordable, family-sized, energy-efficient houses for service workers like teachers, nurses, police officers, and firefighters in Bonita.

• An estimate for the first two parts of development, which include roads, sidewalks, and water/sewer lines, is about $540,000, and the city is helping to fund these developments.

• Collier County is just one area moving toward affordable housing for its estimated 25,000 to 30,000 low-paid service workers in their communities. This is an ambitious undertaking by developers since there is little or no profit in affordable housing developments.

Source: The News-Press Southwest Florida, May 13, 2007 Season a disappointment, area retailers say • Naples retailers said they experienced an oddly slow season so far this year, mainly in April, for retail sales in their area.

80

Florida & Metro Forecast

• The retailers in the area attribute the dramatic drop and erratic sales to three things: the housing market slump, a national retail slowdown, and increased competition from new retailers, saying “retail in Naples has gotten too diversified.”

• Business percentage drops ranged from just a few percent in some stores, to about 50 or 60 percent at KBX Boutique.

Source: Bonita News, May 19, 2007 Florida Gulf Coast University (FGCU) breaks ground on new engineering building • FGCU is officially beginning construction of its new engineering building this summer, which will be the new home to the U.A. Whitaker School of Engineering.

• The new 70,000-square-foot building is funded by three sources: a $5 million donation from Naples resident Burtt Holmes, $5 million by the state, and $2.5 million from the Ginn Company.

Source: Naples Daily News, May 16, 2007 Company that oversaw midfield terminal construction tapped to construct runway • DMJM Aviation has been granted a contract from Lee County to construct a new airport runway at Southwest Florida International Airport.

• The project’s total cost is estimated at over $500 million dollars, making it Lee County’s biggest public works project to date.

Source: Naples Daily News, March 13, 2007

Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d Naples MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

0.5

Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

(percent)

1.0

50000.0

2.5

(Millions 2000 $)

40000.0 30000.0 20000.0 10000.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate

0.0

(Thousands)

20.0% 15.0%

200.0

10.0%

150.0

5.0%

100.0

0.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Naples Payroll Employment

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Real Personal Income

250.0

50.0

2.0

Naples Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Payroll Employment 300.0

1.5

-5.0%

(percent change year ago)

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

81

Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast* 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

17.2 6.9 6.3 10.9 14.7 5 53.4 45.8 45.5 4.2

17.5 6.5 6.4 11.1 14.9 4.9 53.9 46.1 45.9 4.4

17.8 7.2 6.5 11.3 15.1 4.9 54.6 46.5 46.3 3.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2009Q4

18.1 6.9 6.6 11.5 15.3 5 55.2 46.8 46.6 2.9

18.4 7.2 6.7 11.8 15.5 5.4 56 47.2 47 3.3

18.8 7.6 6.8 12 15.8 5.6 56.7 47.6 47.4 3.3

19.2 7.7 6.9 12.3 16 5.6 57.5 48 47.9 3.4

19.5 7.8 7 12.5 16.2 5.7 58.2 48.3 48.3 3.6

19.9 8 7.1 12.8 16.4 5.8 59.1 48.8 48.7 3.7

20.3 8.2 7.3 13.1 16.7 6 60 49.3 49.2 3.8

20.8 8.5 7.4 13.4 17 6.3 60.9 49.8 49.7 3.9

137.8 2.1 3.3 0.4 134.5 2.1 24.3 0 24.7 0.5 3.2 19.9 1.6 1.9 2.5 8.3 2 17.1 1.5 15.3 0.2 23 6.4 5.8 0.5 0.7 0.6 13.4 6.3

138.3 1.6 3.3 -0.2 135 1.6 24.1 -1.7 24.8 0.3 3.2 20 1.6 1.9 -0.3 8.3 4.8 17.3 1.3 15.4 1.6 23 4.2 5.8 1.1 0.7 1.3 13.5 5.2

139.2 2.3 3.3 -1 136 2.4 24.1 -2.7 25.1 3.4 3.3 20.2 1.6 1.9 -1.5 8.4 6.4 17.6 2.8 15.5 2.2 23.3 4.6 5.9 1.2 0.7 2.4 13.5 4.7

140.2 2.2 3.3 -1.3 136.9 2.3 24.1 -1.9 25.4 3.3 3.3 20.5 1.6 1.9 0.8 8.4 2.1 17.8 5.3 15.6 2.5 23.6 3.8 5.9 2.1 0.7 2.7 13.6 2.2

141.3 2.5 3.3 -1.4 138 2.6 24.1 -0.8 25.6 3.7 3.3 20.7 1.7 1.9 1.6 8.4 1.8 18 5.5 15.7 2.7 23.8 3.6 5.9 1.7 0.7 2.8 13.7 2.3

142.3 2.9 3.3 -1 139.1 3 24.3 0.8 25.9 4.1 3.4 20.8 1.7 2 2.9 8.5 2 18.3 5.8 15.9 3.1 23.8 3.3 5.9 1.3 0.7 2 13.8 2.4

143.5 3.1 3.3 -0.8 140.2 3.2 24.4 1.4 26.1 4.1 3.4 21 1.7 2 4.8 8.6 2.2 18.6 5.8 16.1 3.4 24 3 5.9 1.3 0.7 1.3 13.9 2.5

144.7 3.2 3.3 -0.5 141.5 3.3 24.6 2.3 26.3 3.7 3.4 21.2 1.7 2 5.4 8.6 2.7 18.8 6 16.2 3.9 24.2 2.7 6 1.5 0.7 -3.8 14 2.6

146 3.3 3.3 -0.1 142.7 3.4 24.9 3.1 26.6 3.6 3.5 21.4 1.7 2 5.1 8.7 2.8 19.2 6.2 16.3 3.8 24.3 2.2 6 1.5 0.7 -0.7 14.1 2.6

147.2 3.4 3.3 0.2 144 3.5 25.2 3.7 26.8 3.5 3.5 21.5 1.8 2.1 4.8 8.8 2.9 19.5 6.1 16.5 3.4 24.4 2.5 6 1.5 0.7 3 14.1 2.6

148.5 3.5 3.3 0.4 145.2 3.5 25.5 4.4 27 3.2 3.6 21.6 1.8 2.1 4.4 8.8 3.2 19.7 6.1 16.5 3 24.6 2.4 6 1.7 0.8 7.5 14.2 2.6

10571.8 321.9 2.3 157.2 2.9 3.3 2809 1780 1029

10672.9 323.7 2.3 158.6 2.5 3.4 3103 1930 1173

10793.4 325.5 2.3 160 2.9 3.4 3380 2081 1298

10921 327.3 2.2 161.3 3.6 3.4 3646 2209 1437

11081.2 329.2 2.2 162.7 3.5 3.5 3824 2314 1510

11238.3 331.1 2.3 164.1 3.5 3.5 4039 2421 1618

11403.1 333 2.3 165.4 3.4 3.5 4293 2549 1744

11540.7 335 2.4 166.7 3.3 3.5 4550 2691 1859

11710.5 337 2.4 168 3.2 3.6 4698 2795 1902

11877.8 339.1 2.4 169.2 3.1 3.6 4797 2865 1932

12044.9 341.2 2.4 170.5 3.1 3.6 4874 2934 1940

*Quarterly at an annual rate

82

2009Q3

Florida & Metro Forecast

Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

9.3 8.3 3 6.4 9.6 6.5 37.9 38.9 31.6 6.8

10 7.2 3.4 6.6 10 4.6 39.2 39.2 33.9 7.2

11.1 10.5 3.7 7.3 10.8 8.2 41.6 40.7 35 3.3

11.6 4.9 4 7.6 11.2 3.5 41.9 40.4 35.6 1.6

12.3 5.9 4.4 7.9 11.6 3.8 42.7 40.5 38.7 8.6

14.5 18.3 4.9 9.7 13.4 15.3 48.8 45 40.1 3.8

15.2 4.7 5.4 9.8 13.7 1.8 49.4 44.3 42 4.6

16.2 6.5 6 10.2 14.2 3.6 51.4 44.9 44 4.8

17.3 6.8 6.3 11 14.8 4.8 53.7 46 45.7 4

18.6 7.4 6.7 11.9 15.6 5.4 56.4 47.4 47.2 3.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

93.1 3.5 2.9 5.2 90.3 3.5 11.5 8.9 19.8 2.4 2.7 15.5 1.6 1.7 -2.5 5.6 2.2 11.2 3.1 10.4 1.6 15.4 2.1 4.7 4.8 0.6 1.3 9.3 5.4

99.8 7.1 2.9 1.7 96.8 7.3 13.2 13.9 20.8 4.9 2.8 16.3 1.7 1.8 6.1 5.9 5 12.1 8.4 11.1 6.6 16.7 8.3 4.9 3.9 0.7 20.5 9.7 4.3

106.5 6.7 3.2 9.4 103.3 6.6 14.6 10.7 22.2 7.2 3 17.5 1.8 1.8 0.5 6.2 4.8 12.5 3.5 12.1 9.7 17.4 4 5.1 4.6 0.7 -4.5 10.6 9.1

110.8 4.1 3.1 -3.4 107.7 4.3 14.7 1 22.7 2.1 3.3 17.6 1.9 1.8 -0.9 6.5 4.5 13.4 7.1 12.8 5.1 18.3 5.3 5.5 7 0.7 0 11.3 7.1

114.1 3 2.9 -5.3 111.2 3.3 14.6 -0.8 22.4 -1.3 3.1 17.7 1.7 1.7 -3.3 6.7 2.6 16.1 19.8 13.2 3.3 18.5 1.2 5.5 -0.3 0.7 0 11.8 4.5

120.6 5.7 3.1 5.9 117.5 5.7 16.8 14.8 23 2.4 3.3 18 1.7 1.8 7.3 7.1 5.8 17.4 8.1 13.4 1.9 20 8.2 5.4 -1.4 0.7 0 11.9 1

128.3 6.4 3.2 3 125.1 6.4 20.3 21.3 24.3 5.6 3.4 19.1 1.8 1.8 0 7.7 9.3 16.3 -6.5 14.5 7.9 21.5 7.4 5.7 5.1 0.7 0 12.3 2.9

135.2 5.4 3.3 2.8 131.9 5.4 24.2 19 24.5 1.1 3.2 19.7 1.7 1.9 3.2 8 3.8 17 4.2 15.2 4.7 21.9 1.8 5.8 2.2 0.7 0 12.7 3.3

138.1 2.2 3.3 0.1 134.8 2.2 24.3 0.2 24.8 1.1 3.2 20 1.6 1.9 0.6 8.3 3.7 17.2 1.5 15.4 1.3 23 5 5.8 0.6 0.7 1.1 13.4 5.8

141.8 2.7 3.3 -1.1 138.6 2.8 24.2 -0.1 25.8 3.8 3.3 20.8 1.7 1.9 2.5 8.5 2 18.2 5.6 15.8 2.9 23.8 3.4 5.9 1.6 0.7 2.2 13.7 2.3

6089.9 246.1 4.8 99.6 3.4 3.8 6956 3829 3127

6525.9 255.5 3.8 116.1 16.6 3.7 7677 4250 3427

7068.4 266.1 4.1 123.6 6.5 4.1 7602 4111 3491

7511.7 277.2 4.2 128.5 3.9 4.9 7129 4377 2752

7942.4 287.5 3.7 132.5 3.2 4.7 5476 3460 2016

8652 298.1 3.7 138.1 4.2 3.9 6236 4097 2139

9514 308.4 3.5 145.4 5.3 3.5 5811 4108 1703

10278.2 315.6 2.3 153.4 5.5 3 4453 3249 1204

10628.9 322.8 2.3 157.9 2.9 3.3 2970 1878 1093

11160.9 330.1 2.3 163.4 3.5 3.5 3951 2373 1577

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

83

Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

20.1 8.1 7.2 12.9 16.6 5.9 59.5 49 49 3.7

21.8 8.5 7.7 14.1 17.6 6.4 62.9 50.8 50.9 3.9

23.6 8 8.3 15.3 18.7 5.9 66.2 52.4 52.8 3.8

25.3 7.2 8.8 16.5 19.6 5.2 69.1 53.7 54.8 3.8

27 6.9 9.3 17.7 20.6 4.9 72 54.8 56.8 3.6

29 7.2 9.9 19.1 21.7 5.3 75.2 56.2 58.8 3.5

31.1 7.3 10.4 20.7 22.8 5.3 78.6 57.7 60.9 3.5

33.4 7.3 11 22.3 24 5.3 82 59 63 3.4

35.9 7.5 11.7 24.2 25.3 5.4 85.7 60.5 65.1 3.4

38.5 7.5 12.3 26.2 26.7 5.4 89.6 62.1 67.4 3.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

84

Florida & Metro Forecast

146.6 3.4 3.3 0 143.3 3.4 25 3.4 26.7 3.5 3.5 21.4 1.8 2 4.9 8.7 2.9 19.3 6.1 16.4 3.5 24.4 2.5 6 1.6 0.7 1.5 14.1 2.6

151.5 3.4 3.3 0.5 148.2 3.4 26.1 4.1 27.4 2.7 3.6 21.9 1.8 2.1 4 9 3.3 20.4 5.8 16.9 2.9 25 2.4 6.1 2 0.8 13 14.5 2.6

156.2 3.1 3.3 0.2 152.9 3.1 26.9 3.2 28.1 2.4 3.8 22.4 1.9 2.2 3.4 9.3 3 21.6 5.9 17.4 3.4 25.6 2.4 6.3 2.4 0.8 -8.1 14.8 2.3

160 2.5 3.3 -0.1 156.7 2.5 27.4 1.9 28.6 1.9 3.9 22.8 2 2.3 3.1 9.5 1.9 22.7 5 18 3 26 1.8 6.4 2.1 0.8 2.2 15.2 2.4

163.4 2.1 3.3 -0.2 160.2 2.2 27.8 1.4 29.1 1.8 4 23.1 2 2.3 3 9.6 1.6 23.7 4.7 18.4 2.3 26.4 1.3 6.5 1.9 0.8 2.2 15.5 2.4

167 2.2 3.3 0.1 163.8 2.2 28.3 1.9 29.6 1.7 4.1 23.5 2.1 2.4 2.7 9.8 1.6 24.9 4.9 18.8 2.2 26.6 1.1 6.6 1.8 0.8 2.3 15.9 2.4

170.8 2.3 3.3 0.3 167.6 2.3 29 2.3 30.1 1.5 4.2 23.7 2.2 2.5 2.8 9.9 1.7 26.1 5 19.2 2.3 26.9 0.9 6.8 2 0.8 2.2 16.2 2.3

174.7 2.2 3.3 0.2 171.4 2.3 29.7 2.5 30.5 1.5 4.4 24 2.3 2.5 2.8 10.1 1.6 27.4 4.9 19.6 2.1 27.1 0.8 6.9 2.1 0.9 2.1 16.6 2.2

178.6 2.3 3.3 0.4 175.3 2.3 30.4 2.4 30.9 1.4 4.5 24.2 2.4 2.6 2.6 10.2 1.4 28.9 5.2 20.1 2.4 27.3 0.6 7.1 2.2 0.9 2.1 17 2.3

182.7 2.3 3.3 0.3 179.4 2.3 31 2 31.4 1.6 4.7 24.4 2.4 2.7 2.4 10.4 1.8 30.3 5.1 20.6 2.6 27.5 0.8 7.2 2 0.9 2.2 17.3 2.1

11793.5 338.1 2.4 168.6 3.2 3.6 4730 2821 1908

12444.2 346.8 2.6 173.8 3.1 3.6 4952 3031 1921

13060.4 356.1 2.7 179 3 3.7 4994 3080 1914

13660.3 365.8 2.7 184.3 2.9 3.8 4953 3062 1891

14273.9 375.6 2.7 189.5 2.8 3.9 4966 3098 1868

14946.7 385.4 2.6 194.7 2.7 4 5014 3139 1875

15664.3 395.8 2.7 200 2.7 4.1 5109 3186 1923

16410.2 407.1 2.8 205.3 2.7 4.2 5125 3169 1956

17196.9 418.4 2.8 210.8 2.6 4.2 5149 3131 2017

18025.5 429.9 2.8 216.3 2.6 4.3 5203 3108 2096

Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

41.3 7.2 13 28.3 28.1 5.2 93.5 63.6 69.7 3.5

44.3 7.1 13.8 30.4 29.5 5.1 97.5 65.1 72.2 3.5

47.3 7 14.6 32.7 31 5 101.6 66.5 74.6 3.4

50.6 7 15.5 35.2 32.5 5 105.8 67.9 77.3 3.5

54.2 7 16.4 37.8 34.1 4.9 110.2 69.4 80 3.5

57.9 7 17.4 40.6 35.8 4.9 114.9 70.9 82.8 3.5

62 7 18.4 43.6 37.5 4.9 119.7 72.4 85.7 3.6

66.3 7 19.5 46.8 39.4 4.9 124.8 74 88.8 3.6

70.9 6.9 20.7 50.3 41.2 4.8 130 75.6 91.9 3.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

186.6 2.1 3.3 -0.1 183.3 2.2 31.4 1.3 31.9 1.7 4.9 24.8 2.5 2.7 2.3 10.6 2 31.7 4.6 21.2 2.6 27.8 1 7.4 2.1 0.9 2.4 17.7 2

190.9 2.3 3.3 -0.2 187.6 2.4 31.9 1.5 32.5 1.8 5 25.1 2.5 2.8 2.5 10.9 2.1 33.2 4.6 21.7 2.7 28.1 1.1 7.5 2.2 1 13.5 18 2

195.2 2.3 3.3 -0.3 192 2.3 32.5 1.7 33.2 2 5.2 25.6 2.6 2.9 2.9 11.1 2 34.6 4.4 22.3 2.8 28.4 1.2 7.7 2.4 0.9 -8.3 18.4 1.8

199.8 2.3 3.3 -0.7 196.5 2.4 33.1 1.8 33.8 2 5.4 26 2.7 2.9 2.9 11.3 2 36.2 4.5 23 2.7 28.7 1.1 7.9 2.5 1 2 18.7 1.7

204.4 2.3 3.2 -0.7 201.2 2.4 33.7 2 34.5 2 5.6 26.4 2.8 3 2.9 11.5 1.9 37.8 4.4 23.6 2.6 29 1.1 8.1 2.5 1 1.9 19 1.7

209.3 2.4 3.2 -0.6 206.1 2.4 34.5 2.2 35.2 2 5.8 26.9 2.8 3.1 2.9 11.7 1.9 39.5 4.5 24.1 2.5 29.3 1 8.3 2.4 1 2 19.3 1.7

214.2 2.3 3.2 -0.5 211 2.4 35.3 2.5 35.9 1.9 6 27.3 2.9 3.2 2.8 12 2 41.2 4.2 24.7 2.3 29.6 1 8.5 2.3 1 2 19.7 1.8

219.4 2.4 3.2 -0.3 216.2 2.5 36.4 3 36.6 2 6.2 27.8 3 3.3 3 12.2 2 42.7 3.8 25.3 2.3 30 1.2 8.7 2.5 1 2 20 1.7

224.6 2.4 3.2 -0.2 221.4 2.4 37.4 2.9 37.3 2.1 6.4 28.3 3.1 3.4 3.2 12.4 1.9 44.2 3.5 25.9 2.4 30.4 1.3 8.9 2.6 1.1 2 20.3 1.7

18863.1 441.7 2.7 221.8 2.6 4.3 5209 3062 2147

19754.2 453.7 2.7 227.9 2.8 4.4 5246 3020 2226

20645.1 466 2.7 234.3 2.8 4.4 5301 2996 2305

21588.2 478.6 2.7 240.9 2.8 4.5 5347 2970 2378

22560.2 491.3 2.7 247.6 2.8 4.6 5417 2952 2465

23590.4 504.4 2.7 254.6 2.8 4.6 5490 2966 2524

24681.1 517.8 2.7 261.7 2.8 4.7 5593 3010 2583

25815.2 531.5 2.7 269.1 2.8 4.8 5683 3024 2660

26961.5 545.7 2.7 276.7 2.8 4.8 5686 2975 2711

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

85

Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

75.8 6.8 21.9 53.9 43.2 4.7 135.3 77.1 95 3.4

80.9 6.7 23.1 57.7 45.1 4.6 140.7 78.6 98.2 3.4

86.4 6.8 24.5 61.8 47.2 4.6 146.5 80.1 101.6 3.4

92.2 6.8 26 66.2 49.4 4.6 152.5 81.7 104.9 3.3

98.4 6.8 27.5 70.9 51.7 4.6 158.6 83.3 108.4 3.4

105 6.7 29.2 75.9 54 4.5 164.9 84.8 112 3.3

112.1 6.7 30.9 81.2 56.5 4.6 171.5 86.5 115.7 3.3

119.7 6.8 32.7 87 59.1 4.6 178.5 88.1 119.6 3.4

127.9 6.8 34.7 93.2 61.8 4.6 185.8 89.8 123.7 3.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

86

Florida & Metro Forecast

229.8 2.3 3.2 -0.3 226.6 2.3 38.5 2.7 38.1 2.2 6.6 28.8 3.2 3.5 3.2 12.7 1.8 45.6 3.2 26.5 2.4 30.8 1.3 9.1 2.6 1.1 2 20.7 1.7

235.1 2.3 3.2 -0.5 232 2.4 39.5 2.8 39 2.2 6.8 29.4 3.3 3.6 3.2 12.9 1.9 47.2 3.3 27.1 2.3 31.2 1.4 9.4 2.5 1.1 2 21 1.7

240.9 2.4 3.2 -0.4 237.7 2.5 40.8 3.2 39.7 2 7 29.9 3.4 3.7 3.2 13.2 2 48.8 3.5 27.7 2.3 31.6 1.2 9.6 2.4 1.2 5.1 21.4 1.7

247.1 2.6 3.1 -0.1 243.9 2.6 42.3 3.6 40.6 2.1 7.2 30.5 3.4 3.9 3.5 13.4 2.1 50.7 3.8 28.4 2.3 32 1.4 9.8 2.5 1.2 -0.8 21.7 1.7

253.4 2.6 3.1 -0.1 250.3 2.6 43.7 3.4 41.4 2.1 7.4 31.1 3.5 4 3.6 13.7 2 52.6 3.7 29.1 2.4 32.4 1.2 10.1 2.6 1.2 2 22.1 1.6

259.9 2.6 3.1 -0.2 256.8 2.6 45.1 3.2 42.3 2.1 7.6 31.7 3.6 4.2 3.6 14 2.1 54.6 3.9 29.8 2.3 32.8 1.3 10.3 2.5 1.2 2 22.4 1.7

266.6 2.6 3.1 -0.2 263.4 2.6 46.5 3.2 43.1 2 7.9 32.3 3.6 4.3 3.6 14.3 2.1 56.9 4.2 30.4 2.2 33.2 1.1 10.6 2.4 1.2 2 22.8 1.7

273.2 2.5 3.1 -0.1 270.1 2.5 47.9 3 44 1.9 8.1 32.9 3.7 4.5 3.5 14.6 2 59.3 4.2 31.1 2.1 33.6 1.2 10.8 2.4 1.2 2 23.2 1.6

280 2.5 3.1 0 276.9 2.5 49.4 3 44.7 1.8 8.3 33.5 3.8 4.6 3.6 14.9 2 61.8 4.3 31.7 2.1 33.9 0.9 11.1 2.4 1.3 2 23.6 1.6

28132.2 559.9 2.6 284.6 2.9 4.9 5628 2894 2734

29366.7 574.6 2.6 292.8 2.9 4.9 5611 2867 2744

30695.1 589.5 2.6 301.1 2.9 5 5640 2890 2750

32073.8 604.6 2.6 309.7 2.9 5.1 5642 2884 2758

33500.5 620.6 2.6 318.6 2.9 5.1 5558 2816 2742

35000.4 636.9 2.6 327.7 2.9 5.2 5507 2791 2716

36606.4 653.6 2.6 337.1 2.9 5.2 5492 2806 2686

38279.6 670.8 2.6 346.7 2.9 5.3 5471 2829 2643

40046.3 688.3 2.6 356.6 2.9 5.4 5451 2852 2599

Oca l a

P r o fi l e s Comprised of Marion County only, the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area in the center of the state. The second-largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 316,183 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 130,055 in December 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3.2%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 4,157 unemployed people. (Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Marion County School Board – 5,700 employees • Munroe Regional Medical Center – 2,427 employees • State of Florida (all departments) – 2,263 employees • Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – 1,935 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,400 employees • Marion County Board of County Commissioners – 1,319 employees • Ocala Regional Medical Center & West Marion Community Hospital – 1,301 employees • Emergency One, Inc. – 1,274 employees • City of Ocala – 1,100 employees • Cingular Wireless – 1,000 employees Source: Ocala/Marion Economic Development Council

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s Ocala is projected to experience the second highest average quarterly change in per capita income growth at 7.3%. Additionally, Ocala is projected to lead the state in population growth at an average quarterly rate of 3.9% as the region continues to grow and expand.

The professional and business services sector will experience the most growth at an average quarterly rate of 4.5%; educational and health services will also exhibit strong growth at a rate of 3.1%.

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Builder looks at Ocala as site for expansion plans • Ocala is trying to attract the Crystal River company American Spaceframe Fabricators International, the builders of Tampa’s Ford Amphitheater. The company specializes in the design and construction of steel frame buildings with fabric membrane roofs.

• American Spaceframe currently employs 23 workers with an annual payroll of slightly under $1 million but would like to expand that number to about 75 to 85 employees on a $1.5 to $1.76 million annual payroll.

• The City Council has approved an economic improvement grant valued at $115,000 for the company’s relocation expenses.

Source: Ocala Star-Banner, May 9, 2007 Schools OK $55 million in bonds for renovations • Marion County Public Schools will issue $55 million in bonds to renovate three schools in the area. The county was able to maintain an “A” bond rating, which will, in turn, mean lower interest rates and cheaper bond insurance.

• The county’s only worry is how the restructuring of property taxes, which is supposed to take place in June, will affect the county’s bond rating.

Source: Ocala Star-Banner, May 9, 2007

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

87

Oca l a

Number of home permits drops • In April, Marion County issued the lowest number of new single-family home permits since 2003. There is no definitive answer to whether this indicates that new home construction is headed for an even quicker slowdown.

• Despite the stagnation on the new-homes market, overall building has not fully dissipated; in fact, many permits are being issued for additions to existing homes.

Source: Ocala Star-Banner, May 8, 2007 Rate increase set to zap Ocala Electric customers • Electricity rates spiked in Ocala, an increase of nearly $2.50 per 1,000 kilowatt hours. Ocala’s City Council decided to dip into its $18.3 million utilities “rate stabilization” fund in the amount of $2 million to lessen the shock to consumers.

• Ocala residents might also expect an increase in their water bill; the new rate is $5.40 for 800 cubic feet of water.

Source: Ocala Star-Banner, March 22, 2007 Fire service rates could go up • Marion County commissioners recently released news of a 10 percent increase in the annual fire assessment. An owner of a single-family home currently pays an annual assessment for fire service of about $166, with a 10 percent increase this will raise to almost $183.

Source: Ocala Star-Banner, May 17, 2007

88

Florida & Metro Forecast

Oca l a Ocala MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

0.5

Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0%

(percent)

1.0

30000.0

2.5

(Millions 2000 $)

25000.0 20000.0 15000.0 10000.0 5000.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate

0.0

(Thousands)

10.0% 8.0%

140.0

6.0%

120.0

4.0%

100.0

2.0%

80.0

0.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Ocala Payroll Employment

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Gross Metro Product

Ocala Real Personal Income

160.0

60.0

2.0

Ocala Real Gross Metro Product

Ocala Payroll Employment 180.0

1.5

-2.0%

(percent change year ago)

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

89

Oca l a

Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast* 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

9.4 7.1 3.7 5.7 8.1 5.2 28.5 24.4 34.5 4.1

9.5 6.5 3.8 5.8 8.2 4.9 28.7 24.5 34.8 4.2

9.7 7 3.8 5.9 8.3 4.7 28.9 24.6 35 3.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily *Quarterly at an annual rate

90

Florida & Metro Forecast

2009Q3

2009Q4

9.9 6.8 3.8 6 8.4 4.9 29.1 24.6 35.2 2.6

10.1 7.1 3.9 6.2 8.5 5.3 29.4 24.8 35.5 3

10.2 7.4 4 6.3 8.6 5.4 29.7 24.9 35.8 3

10.4 7.5 4 6.4 8.7 5.4 29.9 25 36.1 3.1

10.6 7.5 4.1 6.5 8.8 5.3 30.2 25 36.4 3.3

10.8 7.6 4.1 6.7 8.9 5.4 30.5 25.2 36.7 3.4

11 7.8 4.2 6.8 9.1 5.6 30.9 25.4 37.1 3.5

11.3 7.9 4.3 7 9.2 5.8 31.3 25.6 37.4 3.6

107.2 2 9.9 0.3 97.3 2.1 11.5 0.6 23.6 1.4 4.2 16.7 2.7 2.2 4.1 5.8 0.8 10.1 2.4 13.1 4.5 9.5 -0.8 4.2 5.2 0.7 0.7 16.4 3.6

107.5 1 9.8 -1.5 97.6 1.2 11.4 -1.8 23.8 1.1 4.2 16.8 2.7 2.2 0.7 5.8 1.3 10.2 1.3 13.2 3.5 9.6 -0.9 4.3 1.8 0.7 1.7 16.5 2.8

108 1.5 9.8 -1.1 98.2 1.8 11.4 -3 24 3.2 4.3 16.9 2.8 2.2 -0.4 5.8 2.2 10.4 1.8 13.3 2.8 9.7 2.7 4.3 1.6 0.7 1.9 16.6 2.1

108.7 1.8 9.8 -1.6 98.9 2.2 11.4 -2.4 24.2 3.1 4.3 17.1 2.8 2.2 -0.2 5.8 1.5 10.5 4.8 13.3 2.1 9.8 3.9 4.3 1.8 0.7 2.4 16.7 2.2

109.3 2 9.7 -1.7 99.6 2.4 11.4 -1.3 24.4 3.4 4.3 17.3 2.8 2.2 0.5 5.8 1.3 10.6 5 13.5 2.4 9.9 3.6 4.3 1.3 0.7 2.4 16.8 2.2

110 2.3 9.7 -1.4 100.3 2.7 11.4 0.2 24.6 3.7 4.4 17.4 2.9 2.2 1.8 5.9 1.4 10.8 5.3 13.6 2.7 9.9 3.2 4.3 0.9 0.7 1.6 16.9 2.2

110.7 2.4 9.7 -1.1 101 2.8 11.4 0.3 24.9 3.7 4.4 17.6 2.9 2.3 3.6 5.9 1.6 10.9 5.2 13.7 2.9 9.9 2.9 4.3 0.9 0.7 0.9 17 2.3

111.3 2.4 9.7 -1 101.6 2.7 11.4 0.7 25 3.2 4.4 17.7 2.9 2.3 4.1 5.9 2 11 5.3 13.8 3.4 10 2.4 4.3 1 0.7 -3.5 17.1 2.3

112.1 2.5 9.7 -0.6 102.4 2.8 11.5 1.5 25.2 3.2 4.4 17.8 3 2.3 3.8 6 2.1 11.2 5.5 13.9 3.2 10.1 1.9 4.3 1 0.7 -1 17.2 2.3

112.8 2.6 9.7 -0.4 103.1 2.8 11.6 2.1 25.4 3.1 4.5 17.9 3 2.3 3.5 6 2.2 11.4 5.4 14 2.8 10.1 2.3 4.3 1 0.7 2.2 17.3 2.3

113.5 2.6 9.7 -0.2 103.9 2.9 11.8 3.2 25.6 2.8 4.5 18 3.1 2.3 3.1 6 2.5 11.5 5.4 14 2.4 10.2 2.2 4.4 1.2 0.8 6.1 17.4 2.3

9032 329.7 4.3 135.4 3.9 3.8 4749 4532 217

9112.3 333 4.2 136.3 2.6 3.9 4707 4543 164

9205.6 336.2 4.1 137.2 2 3.9 4620 4467 153

9309.3 339.3 4 138.1 2.7 4 4664 4517 148

9429.3 342.5 3.9 138.9 2.6 4 4699 4552 147

9545.9 345.6 3.8 139.8 2.5 4 4765 4614 151

9666 348.7 3.7 140.6 2.4 4 4875 4716 159

9761.4 351.7 3.6 141.3 2.4 4 4993 4829 164

9885.1 354.7 3.6 142.1 2.3 4.1 5091 4924 167

10004.6 357.6 3.5 142.8 2.2 4.1 5162 4997 164

10124 360.2 3.3 143.6 2.2 4.1 5229 5069 161

Oca l a

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

5.5 6.1 2.1 3.4 5.6 4.3 21.5 22 25.1 3.2

5.9 7.2 2.2 3.7 5.9 4.6 22.6 22.6 25.9 3

6.2 4.5 2.3 3.8 6 2.3 23.1 22.7 26.9 4

6.3 2.2 2.4 3.9 6.1 0.8 23 22.2 28.1 4.4

6.7 6.9 2.7 4.1 6.4 4.8 23.9 22.6 29.7 5.9

7.5 11.4 2.9 4.6 6.9 8.5 25.6 23.6 30.4 2.4

8.2 8.9 3.2 5 7.3 5.8 26.7 24 31.7 4.1

8.9 8.6 3.5 5.3 7.7 5.7 27.9 24.3 33.4 5.3

9.5 6.9 3.7 5.7 8.1 4.9 28.6 24.5 34.6 3.9

10.2 7.2 3.9 6.2 8.5 5.2 29.5 24.8 35.7 2.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

83.9 2.4 11.3 0.5 72.6 2.7 6.3 2.2 19.8 1.8 2.7 14.3 2.8 2.5 1.7 3.8 3.6 7.4 10.3 8.2 2 7.3 0.2 3.2 4.4 0.7 7.3 13.5 1.8

86 2.5 11.1 -1.8 74.9 3.2 6.3 0.7 20.4 3.3 2.8 15.1 2.6 2.6 3.8 3.9 1.1 7.7 4.3 8.5 4.1 7.1 -1.9 3.4 7.9 0.9 21.8 14.1 4.2

85.8 -0.2 9.9 -10.7 75.9 1.3 6.1 -2.6 20.7 1.2 3 14.9 2.8 2.4 -6.5 3.9 1.7 7.2 -6.4 9.2 7.7 7.6 6.1 3.5 1.9 0.7 -18.9 14.6 3.5

86.1 0.4 9.3 -5.5 76.8 1.1 6.4 4.9 20.5 -0.7 3.1 14.8 2.6 2.3 -4.5 4 1.1 7.2 0.4 9.7 5.3 7.6 0.3 3.6 3.6 0.7 2.3 14.7 0.7

89 3.4 9.2 -1 79.8 3.9 7.6 17.5 20.9 2 3.3 15.1 2.5 2.2 -5.1 4.3 9.2 7.6 4.8 10.5 8.5 7.7 0.9 3.6 -1.6 0.7 -2.3 14.7 0.4

95 6.7 9.6 4 85.4 7 9 18.7 21.7 3.7 3.6 15.6 2.5 2.2 1.2 4.9 12.5 8.2 7.5 11.1 6 8.7 13.1 3.8 7.7 0.7 0 15.1 2.4

100.6 5.9 9.9 3.6 90.7 6.2 9.8 9.7 22.9 5.6 3.9 16.3 2.7 2.2 -2.3 5.4 11.1 8.9 9.5 12 7.6 9.2 6.3 4 5.2 0.7 0.1 15.4 2.3

105.6 4.9 10 0.1 95.6 5.4 11.5 16.5 23.3 1.8 4.1 16.5 2.7 2.2 0.8 5.7 5.2 9.9 10.6 12.7 5.9 9.5 3.2 4.1 1.9 0.7 0 16 3.6

107.4 1.7 9.9 -0.9 97.5 2 11.5 0 23.7 1.7 4.2 16.8 2.7 2.2 1.8 5.8 0.9 10.2 2.9 13.2 3.8 9.6 0.2 4.2 3.4 0.7 1.1 16.5 3

109.7 2.2 9.7 -1.5 99.9 2.5 11.4 -0.8 24.6 3.5 4.3 17.4 2.9 2.2 1.4 5.8 1.5 10.7 5.1 13.5 2.5 9.9 3.4 4.3 1.2 0.7 1.8 16.8 2.2

5948.9 255.7 2 102.7 1.9 3.8 2832 2741 91

6122.4 260.9 2 109.2 6.4 4 2507 2441 66

6210.6 266.1 2 109.3 0.1 5 3246 3220 26

6391.9 273.4 2.8 110.3 0.9 5.8 5836 5342 494

6805.9 282.1 3.2 113.5 2.9 5.2 6832 6081 751

7470 293 3.9 118.5 4.5 4.5 5185 5096 89

8185.7 305.1 4.1 125 5.4 3.9 7284 6724 560

8800.5 317.9 4.2 131.7 5.3 3.4 7665 7308 357

9077.7 331.3 4.2 135.8 3.2 3.8 4706 4489 218

9487.6 344.1 3.9 139.3 2.6 4 4751 4600 151

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

91

Oca l a

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

10.9 7.7 4.2 6.8 9 5.5 30.7 25.3 36.9 3.5

11.8 7.9 4.4 7.4 9.5 5.8 32.2 26.1 38.3 3.7

12.7 7.3 4.7 8 10 5.2 33.9 26.9 39.6 3.6

13.5 6.5 4.9 8.5 10.5 4.4 35.4 27.5 41 3.6

14.3 6.1 5.2 9.1 10.9 4.1 36.8 28 42.5 3.5

15.2 6.3 5.4 9.8 11.4 4.4 38.3 28.6 43.9 3.4

16.2 6.5 5.7 10.5 11.9 4.6 40 29.4 45.4 3.3

17.3 6.5 6 11.3 12.4 4.5 41.7 30.1 46.9 3.3

18.4 6.6 6.3 12.1 13 4.6 43.6 30.8 48.4 3.3

19.6 6.6 6.6 13 13.6 4.5 45.6 31.6 50.1 3.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

92

Florida & Metro Forecast

112.4 2.5 9.7 -0.5 102.8 2.8 11.6 1.9 25.3 3.1 4.5 17.8 3 2.3 3.6 6 2.2 11.3 5.4 13.9 3 10.1 2.2 4.3 1.1 0.7 0.9 17.2 2.3

115.3 2.5 9.7 -0.1 105.6 2.8 12 3.4 25.9 2.4 4.6 18.2 3.1 2.4 2.8 6.1 2.6 11.8 5.1 14.2 2.3 10.3 2.2 4.4 1.5 0.8 10.4 17.6 2.3

117.9 2.2 9.6 -0.4 108.2 2.5 12.3 2.5 26.4 2 4.7 18.5 3.2 2.4 2.3 6.3 2.3 12.5 5.2 14.6 2.8 10.5 2.1 4.5 1.8 0.7 -6.9 18 2

120 1.8 9.6 -0.7 110.4 2 12.4 1.2 26.8 1.5 4.8 18.7 3.3 2.5 2 6.3 1.2 13 4.3 15 2.4 10.7 1.5 4.6 1.6 0.8 1.6 18.3 2

121.7 1.5 9.5 -0.8 112.2 1.7 12.5 0.7 27.2 1.3 4.8 18.9 3.4 2.5 1.8 6.4 0.9 13.5 3.9 15.2 1.6 10.8 0.9 4.6 1.3 0.8 1.6 18.7 2

123.5 1.5 9.4 -0.6 114.1 1.7 12.7 1.2 27.5 1.2 4.9 19 3.5 2.6 1.5 6.5 0.9 14.1 4.1 15.4 1.5 10.9 0.8 4.7 1.3 0.8 1.7 19.1 2

125.5 1.6 9.4 -0.4 116.1 1.7 12.9 1.6 27.8 1.1 5 19.1 3.6 2.6 1.6 6.5 1 14.6 4.2 15.7 1.6 10.9 0.7 4.7 1.5 0.8 1.6 19.4 1.9

127.4 1.6 9.4 -0.2 118.1 1.7 13.1 1.9 28.1 1.1 5.1 19.2 3.7 2.7 1.6 6.6 0.9 15.3 4.2 15.9 1.5 11 0.6 4.8 1.6 0.8 1.6 19.8 1.9

129.5 1.6 9.4 0 120.1 1.7 13.4 1.7 28.4 1 5.2 19.2 3.8 2.7 1.3 6.6 0.7 15.9 4.4 16.2 1.7 11 0.2 4.9 1.6 0.8 1.6 20.2 1.9

131.5 1.6 9.3 -0.2 122.1 1.7 13.5 1.4 28.7 1.1 5.3 19.4 3.9 2.7 1 6.7 1.1 16.6 4.2 16.5 1.9 11.1 0.4 5 1.4 0.8 1.6 20.5 1.8

9943.8 356.1 3.5 142.5 2.3 4.1 5119 4955 164

10407.2 365.9 2.8 145.5 2.1 4.1 5126 4973 153

10827.1 373.6 2.1 148.5 2.1 4.2 5007 4863 143

11224.7 381.3 2.1 151.4 2 4.3 4860 4731 129

11629.2 389.1 2.1 154.3 1.9 4.4 4808 4663 145

12070.2 397 2 157 1.8 4.5 4774 4630 145

12533.2 405.1 2 159.7 1.7 4.6 4732 4598 134

13007.1 413.3 2 162.5 1.7 4.6 4648 4522 126

13499.5 421.5 2 165.2 1.7 4.6 4518 4392 127

14013.5 429.9 2 167.9 1.6 4.7 4376 4242 135

Oca l a

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

20.8 6.3 6.9 13.9 14.2 4.3 47.6 32.3 51.8 3.4

22.1 6.2 7.3 14.8 14.8 4.2 49.6 33.1 53.6 3.5

23.5 6.1 7.6 15.8 15.4 4.1 51.6 33.8 55.4 3.3

24.9 6.1 8 16.9 16 4.1 53.7 34.5 57.3 3.5

26.4 6.1 8.5 18 16.7 4.1 56 35.2 59.3 3.5

28.1 6.1 8.9 19.1 17.3 4 58.3 36 61.4 3.5

29.8 6.1 9.4 20.4 18 4 60.7 36.7 63.5 3.5

31.6 6.1 9.8 21.7 18.7 4 63.2 37.5 65.8 3.5

33.5 6 10.3 23.1 19.5 3.9 65.8 38.2 68.1 3.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

133.4 1.4 9.3 -0.5 124.1 1.6 13.6 0.7 29 1.2 5.4 19.5 4 2.7 1 6.8 1.3 17.2 3.7 16.8 1.8 11.1 0.6 5 1.5 0.9 1.8 20.9 1.6

135.5 1.6 9.2 -0.7 126.3 1.8 13.8 0.9 29.4 1.3 5.5 19.7 4 2.8 1.3 6.9 1.4 17.9 3.8 17.1 1.9 11.2 0.8 5.1 1.7 0.9 10.6 21.2 1.6

137.6 1.5 9.2 -0.6 128.4 1.7 13.9 1.2 29.8 1.5 5.7 19.9 4.1 2.8 1.7 7 1.2 18.5 3.5 17.5 2 11.3 0.8 5.2 1.9 0.9 -6.9 21.5 1.5

139.9 1.7 9.1 -0.7 130.8 1.8 14.1 1.3 30.3 1.5 5.8 20.1 4.2 2.9 1.7 7.1 1.3 19.2 3.7 17.8 2 11.4 0.8 5.3 2 0.9 1.5 21.8 1.4

142.2 1.7 9.1 -0.6 133.2 1.8 14.3 1.5 30.8 1.6 5.9 20.3 4.3 2.9 1.8 7.1 1.2 19.9 3.6 18.2 1.9 11.5 0.8 5.4 2 0.9 1.5 22.1 1.4

144.5 1.6 9 -0.7 135.5 1.8 14.5 1.6 31.2 1.5 6 20.5 4.4 3 1.6 7.2 1.2 20.6 3.7 18.5 1.8 11.6 0.6 5.5 1.9 0.9 1.4 22.4 1.4

146.8 1.6 8.9 -0.7 137.9 1.7 14.8 2 31.7 1.4 6.2 20.7 4.5 3 1.5 7.3 1.3 21.3 3.3 18.8 1.5 11.6 0.6 5.6 1.8 0.9 1.4 22.8 1.4

149.1 1.6 8.9 -0.7 140.3 1.7 15.2 2.5 32.1 1.5 6.3 21 4.6 3.1 1.6 7.4 1.3 21.9 3 19 1.5 11.7 0.8 5.8 1.9 0.9 1.4 23.1 1.3

151.5 1.6 8.8 -0.6 142.7 1.7 15.6 2.3 32.6 1.6 6.4 21.2 4.7 3.1 1.8 7.5 1.1 22.5 2.6 19.3 1.5 11.8 0.8 5.9 2 1 1.4 23.4 1.4

14529.8 438.2 1.9 170.5 1.6 4.7 4308 4168 140

15075.4 446.6 1.9 173.5 1.8 4.7 4232 4091 141

15612.9 455.2 1.9 176.7 1.8 4.8 4108 3967 141

16183.9 463.9 1.9 179.9 1.8 4.8 4010 3872 139

16766.9 472.6 1.9 183.2 1.8 4.9 3892 3757 135

17372 481.4 1.9 186.5 1.8 4.9 3833 3698 135

18003.5 490.4 1.9 189.9 1.8 5 3830 3695 135

18645.7 499.6 1.9 193.4 1.8 5.1 3810 3673 137

19282.7 508.9 1.9 197 1.9 5.1 3712 3575 137

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

93

Oca l a

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

35.5 5.9 10.9 24.6 20.2 3.8 68.4 39 70.4 3.4

37.5 5.8 11.4 26.1 20.9 3.7 71.1 39.7 72.8 3.4

39.7 5.9 12 27.8 21.7 3.7 73.9 40.4 75.3 3.4

42.1 5.9 12.6 29.5 22.5 3.7 76.9 41.2 77.8 3.3

44.5 5.8 13.2 31.3 23.4 3.7 79.9 41.9 80.4 3.4

47.1 5.8 13.9 33.2 24.2 3.6 83 42.7 83 3.2

49.8 5.8 14.6 35.2 25.1 3.7 86.2 43.5 85.8 3.3

52.7 5.9 15.3 37.4 26 3.7 89.7 44.3 88.6 3.4

55.8 5.9 16.1 39.8 27 3.7 93.3 45.1 91.6 3.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

94

Florida & Metro Forecast

153.8 1.5 8.7 -0.8 145 1.7 15.9 2.2 33.2 1.6 6.5 21.5 4.8 3.2 1.8 7.6 1 23 2.3 19.6 1.5 11.9 0.8 6 2 1 1.4 23.7 1.3

156.1 1.5 8.7 -0.9 147.4 1.7 16.2 2.2 33.7 1.6 6.6 21.7 4.9 3.2 1.8 7.7 1.1 23.6 2.4 19.9 1.5 12 1 6.1 1.9 1 1.4 24 1.3

158.5 1.6 8.6 -0.9 150 1.7 16.7 2.6 34.1 1.4 6.7 22 5 3.3 1.8 7.8 1.3 24.2 2.6 20.2 1.4 12.1 0.7 6.2 1.8 1 4.5 24.3 1.3

161.2 1.7 8.5 -0.5 152.7 1.8 17.2 3.1 34.7 1.5 6.9 22.3 5 3.4 2.1 7.9 1.3 24.9 2.8 20.5 1.5 12.2 0.9 6.3 1.9 1 -1.4 24.6 1.3

163.9 1.7 8.5 -0.5 155.4 1.8 17.7 2.9 35.2 1.5 7 22.5 5.1 3.4 2.2 8 1.2 25.6 2.8 20.8 1.5 12.3 0.7 6.5 2 1 1.4 24.9 1.3

166.6 1.7 8.4 -0.6 158.2 1.8 18.2 2.6 35.7 1.5 7.1 22.8 5.2 3.5 2.2 8.1 1.3 26.4 3 21.1 1.4 12.4 0.9 6.6 1.9 1 1.4 25.3 1.3

169.4 1.6 8.4 -0.6 161 1.8 18.6 2.6 36.1 1.3 7.2 23.1 5.2 3.6 2.2 8.2 1.3 27.2 3.3 21.4 1.3 12.5 0.6 6.7 1.8 1.1 1.4 25.6 1.3

172.1 1.6 8.3 -0.5 163.7 1.7 19.1 2.4 36.6 1.2 7.3 23.4 5.2 3.7 2.1 8.2 1.1 28.1 3.2 21.6 1.1 12.6 0.7 6.8 1.8 1.1 1.4 25.9 1.3

174.7 1.6 8.3 -0.4 166.4 1.7 19.5 2.4 37 1.1 7.4 23.6 5.3 3.7 2.2 8.3 1.1 29 3.3 21.9 1.1 12.7 0.5 6.9 1.8 1.1 1.4 26.2 1.3

19924.8 518.3 1.8 200.6 1.9 5.1 3576 3441 135

20595.5 527.7 1.8 204.4 1.9 5.2 3504 3371 133

21310.3 537.3 1.8 208.1 1.9 5.2 3490 3360 130

22044.2 547.2 1.8 212 1.9 5.3 3443 3315 128

22792.2 557.2 1.8 215.9 1.9 5.3 3326 3201 125

23575.2 567.3 1.8 219.9 1.8 5.4 3257 3137 121

24409.3 577.5 1.8 224 1.8 5.4 3235 3118 117

25270.7 587.9 1.8 228.1 1.8 5.4 3221 3109 112

26171.9 598.4 1.8 232.3 1.8 5.5 3209 3102 108

O r l a n d o – K i s s immee

P r o fi l e s The Orlando – Kissimmee MSA is comprised of Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole counties.

Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World and numerous other Disney enterprises, Universal Studios, and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic, the Orlando Predators arena football team, and Atlanta Braves spring training at Disney’s Wide World of Sports. The University of Central Florida, the nation’s seventh-largest university, and many other places of higher education also reside in the MSA. Quick Facts: • MSA population estimate of 1,984,855 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Lake County population estimate of 290,435 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Orange County population estimate of 1,043,500 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Osceola County population estimate of 244,045 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Seminole County population estimate of 406,875 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force for the MSA of 1,074,583 in December 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 2.9%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 30,721 unemployed people in the Orlando MSA. (Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Walt Disney Co. – 56,800 employees • Orange County Public Schools – 24,063 employees • Florida Hospital (Avent Health System) – 19,270 employees

• Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – 16,757 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 15,606 employees • Universal Orlando – 12,500 employees • Orlando Regional Healthcare System – 11,093 employees • University of Central Florida – 8,946 employees • Central Florida Investments/Westgate Resorts – 7,500 employees • Darden Restaurants, Inc. – 7,361 employees Sources: Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission & Orange County Library System

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s Orlando’s economy will experience the strongest employment growth statewide with an expected average quarterly change of 3.1%. Additionally, Orlando remains a strong performer in many economic indicators, ranking near the top of the state in per capita income level, average annual wage, and gross metropolitan product.

The professional and business services sector will experience the most growth at an average quarterly rate of 6.4%; educational and health services will also exhibit strong growth at a rate of 3.4%.

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Darden abandons Smokey Bones • In May, Orlando-based Darden Restaurants announced that it would be shutting down more than 50 of its Smokey Bones restaurants and selling the remaining franchises. Darden stated that the reasoning behind the closure of the seemingly popular barbecue franchise was the failure of the restaurants to take hold in the Midwest and the southeast, and that the menu and atmosphere turned off many potential customers.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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O r l a n d o – K i s s immee

• It is now clear that the closure of the Smokey Bones franchise was an effort to reshuffle resources for plans to make a major acquisition.

Source: Orlando Sentinel, May 8, 2007 Bizjournals rank of large metros for young adult job seekers • Orlando ranked 9th in the country in hottest large metros for young adult job seekers in a recent report by Bizjournals.

Source: Bizjournals, April 9, 2007 Kuhn bids $34 million for Church Street Station • The once popular downtown Orlando night spot Church Street Station was auctioned to developer Cameron Kuhn for $34 million, who stated that he was interested in restoring its image as a popular dining and entertainment complex.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, April 5, 2007 Arts-Center money drive outpaces expectations • Funds for the proposed art center are building up rapidly, exceeding the halfway point of $100 million needed in donations months ahead of schedule. The performing arts center is one part of the “Project Hometown” revitalization, which also includes a new arena for the Orlando Magic and renovations to the Citrus Bowl.

• While the other projects have been slow to get off the ground and have many in the community skeptical, the performing arts center has been embraced and donations are expected to continue at a furious pace.

Source: Orlando Sentinel, April 30, 2007 Nemours decides on Lake Nona for hospital • Nemours has decided to construct its $270 million children’s hospital at the proposed medical city at Lake Nona. The site will be the site of UCF’s new medical school, the Burnham Institute for Medical Research, and a VA hospital.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, Feb. 20, 2007

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Florida & Metro Forecast

Growing Alafaya Trail drives business bonanza • Development in the Alafaya trail corridor south of S.R. 50 is continuing at a feverish pace. The increase in commercial retail outlets is being driven by the high median income in this area of east Orange County.

• Plans to widen Alafaya Trail at Avalon Park Boulevard, and connect it to S.R. 528, eventually reaching Orlando International Airport, are part of Mayor Crotty’s vision for an Innovation Way. The proposed extension would connect UCF to Orlando International Airport and drive up not only high technology business throughout the corridor, but also the retail submarket.

Source: Orlando Sentinel, April 23, 2007 Freshening up I-Drive • The Orlando Planning Department has begun discussion on the possible redevelopment of International Drive, amid concerns that visitors to Orlando most remember the area, now crowded with aging hotels and attractions, and oversaturated with signage and advertisements.

• Potential plans for I-Drive include several new attractions and hotels, condominiums, a move toward a mixed residential and commercial area, and the formation of a “Grand Boulevard” of shops and development south of I-4 toward Sand Lake Road.

Source: Orlando Sentinel, May 14, 2007

O r l a n d o – K i s s immee Orlando - Kissimee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

(percent)

0.5

1.0

2.0

Orlando Real Gross Metro Product 300000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

250000.0 200000.0 150000.0 100000.0 50000.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate

0.0

(Thousands)

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Gross Metro Product

Orlando Real Personal Income

Orlando Payroll Employment 2200.0 2000.0 1800.0 1600.0 1400.0 1200.0 1000.0 800.0 600.0

1.5

10.0%

(percent change year ago)

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 OrlandoPayroll Employment

0.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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O r l a n d o – K i s s immee

Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast* 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

70.4 7.3 45.3 25.1 60.4 5.4 34.5 29.6 40.9 4.2

71.5 6.9 45.9 25.5 61.1 5.3 34.7 29.7 41.3 4.2

72.6 6.6 46.6 26 61.8 4.4 35 29.8 41.5 3.6

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

75 6.6 48 27 63.2 4.8 35.7 30.1 42.2 3.1

76.3 6.8 48.8 27.5 64 4.8 36.1 30.3 42.6 3.2

77.7 7.1 49.6 28.1 64.8 4.9 36.5 30.5 42.9 3.3

79.1 7.3 50.5 28.6 65.7 5.1 37 30.7 43.3 3.3

80.6 7.4 51.4 29.2 66.6 5.3 37.4 30.9 43.6 3.4

82.2 7.7 52.4 29.8 67.5 5.5 37.9 31.1 44.1 3.6

83.7 7.8 53.3 30.4 68.5 5.6 38.4 31.4 44.5 3.7

1103.5 2.8 44 1.3 1059.5 2.9 87 -0.3 202 1.9 46.7 125 30.3 28.4 1.5 67.6 2.3 198.9 4.1 111 4.4 193.4 3.6 54.4 4.5 11.4 -1.2 105.5 3

1109.5 2.6 43.8 0.2 1065.8 2.7 86.3 -0.7 203 2.3 47.1 125.4 30.5 28.3 0.6 68 3 201.9 4.2 111.9 4.1 193.7 3 55 4.1 11.5 -0.3 106.1 1.6

1117.3 2.4 43.6 -0.2 1073.7 2.5 86.2 -2.1 204.8 2.7 47.4 126.6 30.8 28 -0.1 68.3 2.4 204.6 4.6 112.8 4 195.5 1.9 55.3 3.3 11.5 3.2 106.6 2

1125.5 2.7 43.5 -1.5 1082 2.9 86.1 -1.9 206.9 3.1 47.8 128 31.1 28.1 -1.1 68.6 2.3 207.3 5.5 113.4 3.2 197.5 3 55.5 3.4 11.6 2.1 107 1.9

1134.3 2.8 43.3 -1.6 1091 3 86.2 -0.9 208.6 3.3 48.2 129.1 31.3 28.3 -0.5 69 2 210.8 6 114.3 3 199 2.9 55.8 2.6 11.6 2.1 107.5 1.9

1142.7 3 43.3 -1.2 1099.4 3.2 86.6 0.3 210.2 3.5 48.6 130 31.6 28.5 0.6 69.4 2.1 215 6.5 115.4 3.1 198.7 2.6 56 1.9 11.6 1.3 108 1.8

1152.7 3.2 43.2 -0.9 1109.4 3.3 86.8 0.7 211.9 3.5 49 131.1 31.9 28.7 2.3 69.8 2.2 219.4 7.3 116.3 3.1 200.1 2.3 56.2 1.6 11.6 0.6 108.6 1.9

1163.4 3.4 43.3 -0.6 1120.1 3.5 87.5 1.7 213.4 3.1 49.4 131.8 32.2 28.9 2.9 70.3 2.5 224 8.1 117.2 3.4 201.6 2.1 56.4 1.6 11.6 0.1 109.2 2

1174.1 3.5 43.3 -0.1 1130.8 3.6 88.4 2.6 215 3.1 49.8 132.7 32.5 29.1 2.7 70.8 2.6 229 8.6 118.1 3.3 202.5 1.7 56.6 1.5 11.6 0 109.8 2.1

1184.5 3.7 43.3 0.1 1141.2 3.8 89.6 3.4 216.5 3 50.2 133.4 32.9 29.2 2.6 71.3 2.8 233.8 8.7 118.8 3 203 2.2 56.9 1.5 11.7 0.6 110.4 2.3

1194.8 3.7 43.4 0.3 1151.4 3.8 90.6 4.4 218 2.9 50.7 134.1 33.2 29.4 2.4 71.8 2.9 237.7 8.3 119.4 2.6 204.4 2.2 57.2 1.7 11.8 1.9 111.1 2.3

81823.7 2042.2 2.9 1085.8 3.4 3.2 21471 16876 4595

82679.7 2057.5 2.9 1094.6 3.1 3.3 21453 16560 4893

83585.8 2072.5 3 1103.4 2.4 3.3 21269 16207 5062

84565.1 2087 2.9 1111.9 3.2 3.3 21284 16194 5090

85726.7 2101.1 2.9 1120.4 3.2 3.2 21457 16284 5172

86869 2114.7 2.8 1128.5 3.1 3.2 21817 16456 5362

88106 2128.1 2.7 1136.5 3 3.2 22206 16715 5491

89167.2 2141.5 2.6 1144 2.9 3.2 22618 17046 5572

90426.2 2154.9 2.6 1151.2 2.8 3.2 22889 17293 5596

91657.8 2168.2 2.5 1158.2 2.6 3.2 23343 17685 5659

92869.8 2181.6 2.5 1165.1 2.5 3.2 23719 18079 5640

*Quarterly at an annual rate

98

2009Q4

73.8 6.2 47.3 26.5 62.5 4.3 35.3 29.9 41.9 2.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

2009Q3

Florida & Metro Forecast

O r l a n d o – K i s s immee

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

41.2 7.8 26.3 14.9 42.2 6 25.5 26.1 29.8 4

44.7 8.6 28.7 16.1 44.7 6 26.9 26.9 31.3 5.2

46.4 3.6 29.6 16.7 45.4 1.5 27.1 26.5 32.2 2.8

48.3 4.3 30.6 17.7 46.7 2.8 27.4 26.5 33.5 4

51.1 5.8 32.5 18.7 48.4 3.7 28.3 26.8 34.8 3.7

56 9.5 35.6 20.4 51.6 6.7 29.9 27.6 36.2 4.1

61 8.9 39.1 21.8 54.7 5.9 31.5 28.2 37.6 4.1

66.3 8.8 42.8 23.5 57.9 5.9 33.3 29.1 39.6 5.2

71 7 45.7 25.3 60.8 5 34.6 29.6 41.1 3.9

75.7 6.7 48.4 27.3 63.6 4.7 35.9 30.2 42.4 3.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

878.3 4.6 51.9 0.3 826.4 4.9 53.5 6.8 172.5 4.4 37.2 106.1 29.1 24.8 7.6 53.3 5.1 134.9 8.2 83.4 0.6 176.8 5.3 38.1 4.7 9.6 0.8 79.5 2.9

911.5 3.8 51 -1.6 860.4 4.1 55.6 3.9 179.7 4.2 40.6 109.6 29.5 25.5 2.8 54.4 2.1 151.2 12.1 85.5 2.5 177 0.1 39.7 4.2 10.2 6.6 81.6 2.7

915.9 0.5 48.1 -5.7 867.8 0.9 55.7 0.2 178.2 -0.8 41.9 106.7 29.6 25 -1.9 54.2 -0.5 159.1 5.2 87 1.7 170.6 -3.6 42.4 7 10.3 0.7 85.3 4.5

908.2 -0.8 44.4 -7.7 863.8 -0.5 56.8 2 171.6 -3.7 39.6 104.8 27.3 24.5 -1.9 54.7 1 155.8 -2.1 89.4 2.7 165 -3.3 45.4 6.9 10.4 1.1 90.2 5.8

929.2 2.3 42.2 -5 887 2.7 61.4 8 173.4 1 40 107.4 25.9 25.1 2.3 57.4 4.8 156.9 0.7 93.6 4.7 169.9 3 45.7 0.7 11.1 7 92.6 2.6

978.8 5.3 43.2 2.3 935.7 5.5 69.6 13.4 181.7 4.8 42 113.5 26.2 25.8 2.8 59.5 3.7 168.2 7.2 97.3 4 179.4 5.6 47.5 4 11.2 1.2 95.4 3

1035.9 5.8 44.3 2.7 991.6 6 79.8 14.7 192.8 6.1 44.7 120.1 28 26.7 3.6 63.7 7.1 182.4 8.4 102.2 5 183.6 2.4 49.9 4.9 11.8 5.2 98.7 3.5

1077.1 4 43.6 -1.7 1033.5 4.2 86.9 8.9 198.4 2.9 46.3 122.4 29.7 28 4.7 66.3 4.1 191.7 5.1 107 4.7 188.2 2.5 52.5 5.3 11.4 -3.6 103.1 4.4

1106.7 2.7 43.9 0.8 1062.7 2.8 86.8 -0.1 202.6 2.1 46.9 125.3 30.4 28.3 1.1 67.8 2.2 200.5 4.6 111.4 4.1 193.6 2.9 54.6 4 11.4 0.1 105.8 2.6

1138.8 2.9 43.3 -1.3 1095.5 3.1 86.4 -0.5 209.4 3.4 48.4 129.5 31.5 28.4 0.3 69.2 2.1 213.1 6.3 114.8 3.1 198.8 2.7 55.9 2.4 11.6 1.5 107.8 1.9

53943.6 1614.7 2.7 921.7 4.2 2.8 29028 17309 11719

56377.6 1663 3 895.2 -2.9 3.1 26462 16078 10383

57865.3 1712.9 3 910.2 1.7 4.2 24343 17524 6818

58834 1760.4 2.8 914.4 0.5 5.7 25493 17843 7651

62064.4 1809 2.8 934.3 2.2 5.2 28075 22679 5396

67305.4 1870.6 3.4 967.7 3.6 4.4 32965 26701 6265

73991.6 1937 3.6 1012.3 4.6 3.6 34375 27325 7050

79235.6 1992 2.8 1056.4 4.4 3.1 31506 25736 5770

82279.3 2049.9 2.9 1090.4 3.2 3.2 21283 16345 4938

86316.7 2107.7 2.8 1124.3 3.1 3.2 21691 16412 5279

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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O r l a n d o – K i s s immee

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

81.4 7.5 51.9 29.5 67.1 5.4 37.7 31 43.9 3.5

87.6 7.6 55.6 32 70.8 5.5 39.6 32 45.5 3.7

93.6 6.9 59.3 34.4 74.1 4.8 41.3 32.7 47.2 3.7

99.5 6.3 62.8 36.7 77.3 4.3 42.9 33.3 48.9 3.6

105.7 6.2 66.4 39.3 80.5 4.2 44.5 33.9 50.6 3.5

112.2 6.2 70.1 42.1 83.9 4.2 46.2 34.6 52.3 3.4

119.2 6.2 74 45.2 87.5 4.2 48 35.2 54.1 3.4

126.6 6.3 78.1 48.5 91.2 4.3 50 36 55.9 3.4

134.5 6.2 82.4 52.1 95 4.2 52 36.7 57.8 3.4

142.8 6.2 86.9 55.9 99 4.1 54.1 37.5 59.8 3.4

1281.4 2.3 43.5 0 1237.8 2.4 99 2.4 230.4 1.9 54.7 139.3 36.2 31.3 2.4 75.7 1.4 271.3 4.2 125.2 2.1 215.6 1.7 60.4 2 12.1 1.4 116.8 1.9

1308.6 2.1 43.5 -0.2 1265.1 2.2 100.9 1.9 234.4 1.7 56.1 140.8 37.2 31.9 2.1 76.5 1 282.5 4.1 128 2.2 218.3 1.3 61.4 1.8 12.3 1.4 118.9 1.8

1336.3 2.1 43.3 -0.3 1293 2.2 103.2 2.3 238.2 1.6 57.5 142 38.2 32.5 1.8 77.2 1 295.3 4.5 130.5 2 220.2 0.9 62.5 1.7 12.4 1.4 121 1.7

1365 2.1 43.2 -0.2 1321.8 2.2 106 2.7 241.9 1.5 59.1 142.9 39.4 33.1 1.8 78.1 1.1 308.8 4.6 132.8 1.8 221.9 0.8 63.7 1.9 12.6 1.3 122.9 1.6

1393.8 2.1 43.3 0 1350.5 2.2 109 2.9 245.7 1.6 60.8 143.5 40.7 33.7 1.8 78.8 0.9 322.4 4.4 134.8 1.5 223.5 0.7 64.9 2 12.8 1.3 124.9 1.6

1422.2 2 43.3 0.2 1378.9 2.1 112 2.7 249.5 1.5 62.6 143.9 42.1 34.2 1.6 79.2 0.6 336.3 4.3 136.9 1.6 224.7 0.5 66.2 2 12.9 1.3 126.9 1.6

1451.1 2 43.3 0 1407.8 2.1 114.7 2.4 253.3 1.5 64.6 144.8 43 34.7 1.4 80 1 350.3 4.1 139.4 1.8 226.3 0.7 67.4 1.8 13.1 1.3 128.7 1.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

100

Florida & Metro Forecast

1179.2 3.5 43.3 -0.1 1135.9 3.7 89 3 215.7 3 50 133 32.7 29.1 2.7 71.1 2.7 231.1 8.4 118.4 3.1 202.9 2 56.8 1.6 11.7 0.7 110.1 2.2

91030.3 2161.5 2.6 1154.6 2.7 3.2 23142 17526 5617

1219.2 3.4 43.5 0.4 1175.7 3.5 93.2 4.7 221.3 2.6 51.7 135.6 34 29.8 2.3 73 2.8 247.4 7 120.8 2 207.6 2.3 57.8 1.9 12.2 4.9 112.5 2.2

1252.3 2.7 43.5 0.1 1208.8 2.8 96.7 3.7 226.2 2.2 53.3 137.6 35.2 30.5 2.5 74.7 2.2 260.2 5.2 122.6 1.5 212.1 2.1 59.2 2.3 11.9 -2.6 114.6 1.9

95757.7 100010.5 2214.5 2267.4 2.4 2.4 1182.2 1209.9 2.4 2.3 3.2 3.3 23668 23378 18138 18040 5530 5339

104238 108612.9 113315.8 118238.1 123287.4 128496.2 133972.4 2321.2 2374.7 2427.9 2481.5 2535.1 2588.4 2642.1 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 1237 1262.6 1287.6 1312.8 1337.6 1361.7 1385.7 2.2 2.1 2 2 1.9 1.8 1.8 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 23092 22959 23096 23409 23428 23277 23140 17924 17944 18068 18273 18205 17900 17592 5168 5015 5029 5136 5223 5377 5547

O r l a n d o – K i s s immee

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

151.5 6.1 91.7 59.8 103 4.1 56.2 38.2 61.8 3.4

160.8 6.1 96.9 63.9 107.2 4.1 58.4 39 63.9 3.4

170.4 6 102.2 68.2 111.5 4 60.7 39.7 66.1 3.4

180.8 6.1 108.1 72.7 116.1 4.1 63.1 40.5 68.4 3.5

191.7 6 114.3 77.4 120.7 4 65.6 41.3 70.8 3.5

203.3 6 120.9 82.3 125.5 4 68.2 42.1 73.3 3.5

215.6 6 127.9 87.6 130.5 4 70.9 42.9 75.9 3.5

228.6 6 135.3 93.3 135.6 3.9 73.8 43.8 78.6 3.6

242.1 5.9 142.8 99.3 140.8 3.8 76.6 44.5 81.3 3.5

1576.8 2.2 42.7 -0.3 1534.1 2.2 124 2.2 271.9 1.9 72.8 150.8 46.6 37.1 1.9 84.5 1.4 407.9 3.9 150.6 2 235.5 1 73.5 2.4 13.8 1.3 135.4 1.2

1611.5 2.2 42.6 -0.3 1568.9 2.3 127 2.5 277.2 1.9 74.9 152.7 47.7 37.8 2 85.6 1.3 423.5 3.8 153.5 1.9 237.9 1 75.3 2.5 14 1.3 137 1.2

1647.2 2.2 42.5 -0.3 1604.8 2.3 130.4 2.6 282.5 1.9 77.1 154.5 48.8 38.6 2 86.8 1.4 440.2 3.9 156.3 1.8 240.1 0.9 77.1 2.4 14.1 1.3 138.6 1.2

1683.2 2.2 42.4 -0.2 1640.9 2.2 134.4 3 288 1.9 79.5 156.2 49.9 39.3 1.9 88.2 1.5 456.1 3.6 159 1.7 242.5 1 78.9 2.3 14.3 1.3 140.3 1.2

1718.9 2.1 42.3 -0.1 1676.5 2.2 138.8 3.3 293.4 1.9 81.7 158 51.1 40.1 2 89.5 1.6 470.6 3.2 161.6 1.6 245.1 1.1 80.9 2.5 14.5 1.3 141.9 1.2

1753.5 2 42.3 -0.1 1711.2 2.1 143.3 3.3 299.2 2 83.8 160.1 52.5 40.9 2.1 90.8 1.4 483.5 2.7 164.3 1.7 247.9 1.1 82.9 2.5 14.7 1.3 143.6 1.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1480.3 2 43.2 -0.3 1437.1 2.1 116.6 1.7 257.4 1.6 66.6 145.9 43.7 35.2 1.3 81.1 1.3 364.2 4 142 1.9 228.3 0.9 68.7 1.9 13.3 1.5 130.4 1.3

1511.8 2.1 43 -0.4 1468.8 2.2 118.7 1.9 261.8 1.7 68.6 147.4 44.5 35.7 1.5 82.2 1.4 378.6 4 144.7 1.9 230.8 1.1 70.2 2.1 13.9 4.8 132.2 1.3

1543.3 2.1 42.9 -0.4 1500.4 2.2 121.2 2.1 266.7 1.9 70.7 149.1 45.5 36.4 1.9 83.4 1.4 392.7 3.7 147.7 2 233.2 1 71.8 2.3 13.6 -2.2 133.7 1.2

139588.5 145468.8 151387.1 157633.4 164075.4 170852.5 178012.5 2696.8 2751.9 2808.1 2865 2922.1 2980 3038.9 2.1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1410.2 1437.9 1467 1496.6 1526.6 1557.2 1588.8 1.8 2 2 2 2 2 2 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 22997 22876 22606 22438 22291 22373 22702 17307 17028 16727 16473 16214 16180 16364 5691 5848 5879 5965 6077 6193 6338

185243 192448.9 3098.7 3160 2 2 1621.2 1654.7 2 2.1 3.6 3.6 22890 22672 16374 16011 6516 6661

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

101

O r l a n d o – K i s s immee

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

256.2 5.8 150.6 105.6 146 3.7 79.5 45.3 84.1 3.4

271 5.8 158.8 112.2 151.3 3.6 82.5 46 87 3.4

286.8 5.8 167.6 119.2 156.9 3.7 85.6 46.8 90 3.4

303.4 5.8 176.8 126.6 162.6 3.7 88.9 47.6 92.9 3.3

320.8 5.7 186.5 134.3 168.5 3.6 92.2 48.4 95.9 3.2

339.3 5.8 196.9 142.5 174.6 3.6 95.7 49.3 99.1 3.3

359.3 5.9 208 151.2 181.1 3.7 99.5 50.2 102.4 3.4

380.5 5.9 219.8 160.7 187.9 3.7 103.4 51.1 105.9 3.4

403.3 6 232.5 170.8 195 3.8 107.6 52 109.6 3.5

1900.3 2.2 41.8 0 1858.5 2.2 164.3 4 323 1.9 93 169.2 56.7 44.6 2.4 96.4 1.6 538.2 3 175.4 1.7 259.7 1.2 91.3 2.4 15.5 -1.5 150.1 1.1

1941.5 2.2 41.8 0 1899.7 2.2 170.6 3.9 329 1.9 95.3 171.6 57.7 45.8 2.6 97.9 1.6 554.6 3 178.4 1.7 262.4 1.1 93.6 2.5 15.7 1.3 151.6 1.1

1984.4 2.2 41.7 -0.1 1942.7 2.3 176.8 3.6 335 1.8 97.5 174.3 58.5 46.9 2.5 99.5 1.6 572.5 3.2 181.3 1.6 265.5 1.2 95.9 2.4 15.9 1.3 153.3 1.1

2028.8 2.2 41.7 -0.1 1987.1 2.3 183.1 3.6 340.6 1.7 99.7 176.6 59.2 48.1 2.6 101.1 1.6 592.8 3.5 184.1 1.5 268 0.9 98.1 2.3 16.1 1.3 155 1.1

2073.1 2.2 41.7 0 2031.4 2.2 189.3 3.4 345.9 1.6 101.7 179 59.8 49.3 2.5 102.7 1.5 613.4 3.5 186.6 1.4 270.7 1 100.4 2.3 16.3 1.3 156.7 1.1

2118.4 2.2 41.7 0.1 2076.7 2.2 195.8 3.4 350.8 1.4 103.6 181.2 60.2 50.6 2.5 104.2 1.5 635.7 3.6 189.1 1.3 272.8 0.8 102.7 2.3 16.5 1.3 158.4 1.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

102

Florida & Metro Forecast

1787.4 1.9 42.2 -0.3 1745.3 2 147.8 3.1 305.3 2 86 162.3 53.9 41.8 2.1 92 1.4 495.4 2.5 167.1 1.7 250.8 1.1 85 2.5 14.9 1.3 145.2 1.1

1822.6 2 42 -0.4 1780.7 2 152.4 3.1 311.3 2 88.2 164.6 55 42.6 2.1 93.4 1.4 508.1 2.6 169.8 1.7 254 1.3 87.1 2.4 15.1 1.3 146.8 1.1

1859.9 2 41.8 -0.4 1818 2.1 157.9 3.6 316.9 1.8 90.6 166.8 55.8 43.6 2.2 94.9 1.6 522.4 2.8 172.6 1.6 256.6 1 89.1 2.4 15.7 4.4 148.4 1.1

199772.4 207464.3 215698.3 224181.8 3222.3 3285.5 3349.3 3413.8 2 2 1.9 1.9 1689.1 1724.4 1760.4 1797.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 22235 22069 22184 22151 15479 15247 15290 15179 6756 6822 6894 6972

232899 242087.8 251931.5 262167.4 272945.7 3479 3544.9 3611.6 3679 3747 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1834.8 1873.2 1912.4 1952.5 1993.4 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 21760 21592 21630 21672 21726 14745 14545 14560 14619 14692 7015 7048 7069 7053 7034

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s vi l l e

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Palm Bay – Melbourne – Titusville MSA is comprised of Brevard County only. Typically known as “Florida’s Space Coast,” this area is home to the Kennedy Space Center. Located in the central part of Florida’s east coast, the region is home to Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, Patrick Air Force Base, and government contractors such as Harris Corporation.

Like much of Florida, this area is growing fast; Port Canaveral is now a leading cruise-ship port.

Palm Bay will continue to remain strong in many economic indicators, exhibiting per capita personal income and average annual wage ranked near the top of the state at levels of 42.8 and 45.0, respectively.

The professional and business services sector will experience the most growth at an average quarterly rate of 2.9%, with educational and health services and leisure also exhibiting strong growth with rates of more than 2.5%.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 534,359 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 261,914 in December 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3.2%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 8,361 unemployed people. (Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • United Space Alliance, LLC - 6,500 employees • Harris Corporation - 6,500 employees • Health First - 6,100 employees • Space Gateway Support - 3,000 employees • Wuesthoff Health System - 2,500 employees • Northrop Grumman Corporation - 2,000 employees • The Boeing Company - 1,800 employees • Sea Ray Boats, Inc. - 1,293 employees • MC Assembly - 1,160 employees • Rockwell Collins, Inc. - 1,120 employees Source: Brevard Economic Development Council

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Proposed Ron Jon Resort moves closer toward construction • Final Negotiations began in March between Port Canaveral officials, developers, and Ron Jon Surf Shop on the proposed $147 million Ron Jon Resort.

• The proposed resort would include a 400-room hotel, with a five-story wing, a 20,000-squarefoot conference center, a 72,000-square-foot retail store, and a water park, among other amenities.

• The Ron Jon Resort would be instrumental in increasing tourism in the area, as it would provide a named attraction for guests.

Source: Florida Today, March 21, 2007 Melbourne-based DRS receives $52 million Army contract • DRS Technologies’ DRS Tactical Unit in Melbourne has received a contract valuing $52 million from the United States Army.

The company, which employs approximately 10,000 people, will manufacture computer and electronic systems for the Army’s Force XXI Battle Command, Brigade and Below (FBCB2) program.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, April 9, 2007

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

103

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s vi l l e

German tour operator inks pact with Melbourne International • A marketing agreement has been negotiated between Melbourne International Airport and German tour operator M-Touristik AG. The agreement will bring 200 passengers to the area on weekly charter flights through 2008 and ultimately increase tourists by as many as 6,000 people as well as inject $6 million into the local economy.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, March 26, 2007 Palm Bay mulls service cuts • Palm Bay city officials are becoming concerned about proposed property tax cuts by the Florida legislature. The tax cuts could be detrimental to the community, which stands to lose $11.9 million, 45 percent of its property tax income, which composes 19 percent of the city’s overall budget.

• Palm Bay’s city manager has gone as far as to say that service cuts could come in the form of abandoning annual Independence Day fireworks or even closing the community center.

Source: Florida Today, March 21, 2007 CRA Funds drive downtown revitalizations • Community redevelopment agencies are starting to turn once neglected areas along the coast into sought after destinations. Titusville’s downtown has been revitalized through community redevelopment agencies, and other cities are taking suit. Rockledge is redeveloping main thoroughfare Barton Avenue, and Satellite Beach is undergoing a number of capital improvements, including the renovation of Pelican Beach Park.

Source: Florida Today, February 26, 2007

104

Florida & Metro Forecast

Palm Bay offers $140K in breaks to engineering design firm • Illinois-based engineering design firm Bombardier, has been offered nearly $140,000 dollars in tax breaks over ten years to relocate their engineering design team from Illinois to Palm Bay. The tax breaks are an incentive for the firm’s relocation from Illinois to Palm Bay, which would bring 16 high-tech jobs and result in the construction of a new mechanical shop for $1.7 million.

Source: Florida Today, February 28, 2007 Home construction pace remains slow • Brevard County’s home construction market has continued to stagnate through the second quarter of 2007. Home permits were down to 201 in April, a low compared to previous April’s.

Home permits for the first four months of 2007 were down 61 percent from 2006 numbers. This is evidence of the peak in Brevard housing prices in 2005 and their subsequent decline.

Source: Florida Today, May, 16, 2007

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s vi l l e Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

0.5

1.0

(percent)

50000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

30000.0 20000.0 10000.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 FL Unemployment Rate Palm Bay Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

0.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Gross Metro Product

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

8.0%

300.0

6.0%

250.0

4.0%

200.0 150.0

2.5

40000.0

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Payroll Employment 350.0

2.0

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

1.5

2.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Palm Bay Payroll Employment

0.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

105

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s vi l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast* 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

18.8 5.8 9.6 9.2 16.1 3.9 34.8 29.8 43.3 4.2

19.1 6.1 9.7 9.4 16.3 4.4 35.1 30 43.7 4.2

19.4 6.4 9.8 9.6 16.5 4.2 35.5 30.2 44 3.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2009Q4

19.7 6.1 9.9 9.8 16.6 4.1 35.9 30.4 44.3 2.7

20 6.3 10 10 16.8 4.5 36.4 30.6 44.7 3

20.3 6.7 10.2 10.1 17 4.7 36.8 30.8 45 3.1

20.7 6.8 10.3 10.3 17.2 4.6 37.2 31 45.4 3.2

21 6.8 10.5 10.5 17.4 4.6 37.6 31.2 45.8 3.4

21.4 6.9 10.6 10.8 17.7 4.8 38.1 31.5 46.2 3.5

21.8 7.1 10.8 11 17.9 4.9 38.6 31.7 46.7 3.6

22.2 7.3 10.9 11.2 18.1 5.1 39.1 32 47.1 3.7

217.8 0.2 24 -2.5 193.8 0.6 17 -7.9 37.9 0.9 5.5 28.8 3.6 3 -3.4 8.7 2.3 38.7 -1.1 29.2 4 21.9 3.3 8.2 2.5 6.2 0 23.1 2.2

218.4 1 23.9 -2.4 194.5 1.4 16.8 -5.6 38 1.9 5.6 28.8 3.6 3 -1.5 8.8 3.2 39.1 0.4 29.3 3.9 21.9 3.4 8.2 2.4 6.2 0.6 23.2 2.3

219.4 1.5 23.8 -2.1 195.6 2 16.8 -4.6 38.3 2.5 5.6 29.1 3.6 2.9 0.7 8.8 4.4 39.5 2.2 29.5 3 22.1 4.6 8.2 0 6.2 1 23.3 2.7

220.5 1.6 23.8 -1.1 196.8 2 16.8 -2.6 38.7 2.6 5.7 29.4 3.6 3 -0.5 8.8 1 39.9 4 29.5 1.6 22.3 3.1 8.2 0.9 6.2 1.5 23.4 1.6

221.7 1.8 23.7 -1.2 198 2.2 16.8 -1.6 39 2.9 5.7 29.6 3.7 3 0.3 8.8 0.8 40.3 4.1 29.7 1.8 22.5 2.9 8.2 0.4 6.3 1.5 23.5 1.6

222.9 2.1 23.7 -0.8 199.2 2.4 16.8 -0.1 39.2 3.3 5.8 29.8 3.7 3 1.5 8.8 1 40.8 4.4 30 2.2 22.4 2.5 8.2 0.1 6.2 0.7 23.6 1.6

224 2.1 23.7 -0.6 200.4 2.4 16.8 0.1 39.6 3.2 5.8 30 3.8 3 3.3 8.9 1.2 41.2 4.4 30.2 2.4 22.6 2.2 8.2 0 6.2 0 23.7 1.7

225.2 2.1 23.7 -0.3 201.5 2.4 16.9 0.5 39.8 2.8 5.9 30.1 3.8 3.1 3.9 8.9 1.7 41.6 4.5 30.4 2.9 22.7 1.8 8.2 0.2 6.1 -1.4 23.8 1.7

226.7 2.2 23.7 0.1 202.9 2.5 17 1.3 40 2.7 5.9 30.3 3.8 3.1 3.5 9 1.8 42.2 4.7 30.6 2.8 22.8 1.3 8.2 0.2 6.2 -0.9 23.9 1.8

228 2.3 23.7 0.3 204.2 2.5 17.1 1.9 40.2 2.6 6 30.4 3.9 3.1 3.3 9 1.9 42.7 4.7 30.7 2.3 22.8 1.6 8.2 0.2 6.3 0.4 24 1.8

229.3 2.3 23.8 0.5 205.5 2.6 17.3 3 40.5 2.3 6 30.5 3.9 3.1 2.8 9.1 2.2 43.1 4.6 30.8 2 22.9 1.5 8.2 0.4 6.4 2.3 24.1 1.8

17339.4 540.8 1.2 265.4 1.7 3.8 4167 3417 751

17467.6 542.6 1.3 266.9 2.1 3.9 4421 3553 868

17620.6 544.9 1.4 268.4 1.8 3.9 4658 3742 915

17789.7 547.3 1.5 269.8 2.3 3.9 4908 3907 1001

17992.2 549.8 1.7 271.1 2.2 4 5087 4079 1007

18185.2 552.6 1.8 272.5 2.1 4 5234 4201 1034

18385.4 555.4 1.9 273.8 2 4 5376 4301 1075

18541 558.1 2 275 2 4 5520 4417 1104

18750.1 561 2 276.2 1.9 4 5628 4515 1114

18950.5 563.7 2 277.4 1.8 4 5706 4593 1113

19151.2 566.5 2 278.6 1.8 4 5767 4668 1099

*Quarterly at an annual rate

106

2009Q3

Florida & Metro Forecast

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s vi l l e

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

11.6 4.2 5.8 5.8 11.9 2.5 24.6 25.2 30.7 2.4

12.9 10.8 6.4 6.5 12.9 8.1 26.9 26.9 32.9 6.9

13.3 3.6 6.7 6.6 13.1 1.5 27.3 26.8 34.1 3.7

13.9 3.9 6.9 7 13.4 2.5 27.9 26.9 35.2 3.4

14.6 5.3 7.4 7.2 13.8 3.2 28.8 27.3 36.9 4.7

15.8 8.2 8.1 7.7 14.6 5.4 30.4 28 38.8 5.1

16.8 6.5 8.7 8.1 15.1 3.6 31.8 28.5 40.3 3.8

17.9 6.3 9.2 8.7 15.6 3.5 33.4 29.2 41.9 4.1

18.9 5.9 9.6 9.3 16.2 3.9 34.9 29.9 43.5 3.9

20.2 6.5 10.1 10 16.9 4.5 36.6 30.7 44.9 3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

185 1.3 25.7 -3.5 159.3 2.1 11.5 3.6 33.5 4.4 5 25.4 3.1 2.8 -6 6.6 2.7 31.6 0.3 22.8 2.8 18.2 2.2 7.4 1.2 5.5 -1.5 19.4 1.8

191.5 3.5 24.8 -3.5 166.7 4.6 12.5 8.5 34.1 1.6 5 26.2 2.8 3.1 8.5 6.7 1.7 34.6 9.8 23.9 4.9 18.1 -0.3 7.7 3.7 5.7 3.9 20.3 4.4

193.3 0.9 23.8 -4 169.5 1.7 13.2 5.1 34.8 2.1 5 26.8 3 3.1 1.2 7.1 5.8 34.1 -1.5 24.4 2.1 18.6 2.4 7.5 -2 5.8 1.1 21 3.4

192.5 -0.4 22.9 -3.9 169.6 0.1 12.7 -3.1 34.8 -0.1 4.8 26.6 3.3 2.8 -10.8 7.3 3.4 33.4 -2.2 25.3 3.5 18.6 0.1 7.6 1 5.7 -1.8 21.6 2.9

196.6 2.1 22.8 -0.5 173.8 2.5 13 2.3 34.2 -1.6 4.6 26.3 3.3 2.8 0 7.3 0.7 34.7 4.1 26.7 5.7 18.9 1.8 8.2 8.4 5.7 1.2 22.1 2.6

205.3 4.4 23.6 3.8 181.7 4.5 14.8 13.6 35.5 3.7 4.7 27.2 3.6 2.8 -0.9 7.8 5.8 37.1 6.8 26.8 0.3 19.8 4.7 8.4 1.6 5.9 3.9 22.9 3.3

212.5 3.5 23.9 1.2 188.5 3.8 17.2 16.2 37.1 4.5 5.2 28 3.8 2.9 5.9 8.4 7.8 38.7 4.5 27.3 1.8 20.5 3.5 8.1 -2.8 6.1 1.8 22.2 -2.8

216.6 2 24.5 2.2 192.2 1.9 18.1 4.9 37.4 1 5.5 28.4 3.5 3 3.2 8.5 1.9 39 0.6 28.2 3.4 21.1 3.1 8.1 -1.1 6.2 1.6 22.6 1.7

218.1 0.7 23.9 -2.2 194.2 1.1 17 -6.1 38 1.4 5.6 28.8 3.6 3 -1.6 8.7 2.4 38.9 -0.2 29.3 3.7 21.9 3.6 8.2 1.5 6.2 0.5 23.2 2.6

222.3 1.9 23.7 -1 198.6 2.2 16.8 -1.1 39.1 3 5.7 29.7 3.7 3 1.2 8.8 1 40.5 4.2 29.9 2 22.5 2.7 8.2 0.3 6.2 0.9 23.6 1.6

12294.6 473 1 215.4 0.8 4.1 4647 3550 1097

12751.4 479.1 1.3 232 7.7 3.6 4405 3553 852

13084.7 487.5 1.8 235.7 1.6 4.4 5120 4525 595

13410.5 496.6 1.9 237.2 0.6 5.7 6683 5196 1488

14035.8 506.7 2 242 2 5.1 6228 5672 556

15119.3 519.2 2.5 248.6 2.7 4.4 8385 6438 1948

16311.9 529 1.9 255.1 2.6 3.7 8601 7317 1284

17107.4 535.2 1.2 261.4 2.5 3.3 5908 4916 992

17411.6 541.9 1.3 266.1 1.8 3.8 4282 3538 744

18088.1 551.3 1.7 271.8 2.2 4 5151 4122 1029

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

107

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s vi l l e

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

21.6 7 10.7 10.9 17.8 4.9 38.4 31.6 46.4 3.5

23.1 7.2 11.3 11.8 18.7 5.2 40.3 32.6 48.2 3.8

24.7 6.7 12 12.7 19.6 4.6 42.2 33.4 49.9 3.6

26.2 5.9 12.6 13.5 20.3 3.9 43.8 34.1 51.8 3.7

27.6 5.5 13.2 14.4 21 3.5 45.4 34.6 53.6 3.5

29.2 5.7 13.9 15.3 21.8 3.8 47.2 35.3 55.5 3.4

30.9 5.9 14.5 16.4 22.7 3.9 49.1 36 57.3 3.4

32.7 5.9 15.2 17.5 23.6 3.9 51.1 36.8 59.3 3.4

34.7 6 16 18.7 24.5 4 53.4 37.7 61.3 3.4

36.7 6 16.7 20 25.5 3.9 55.7 38.6 63.4 3.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

108

Florida & Metro Forecast

227.3 2.3 23.7 0.2 203.6 2.5 17.1 1.7 40.1 2.6 6 30.3 3.9 3.1 3.4 9 1.9 42.4 4.6 30.6 2.5 22.8 1.6 8.2 0.2 6.2 0.1 24 1.8

232.4 2.2 23.9 0.5 208.5 2.4 17.6 3.2 40.9 1.9 6.2 30.8 4 3.2 2.5 9.2 2.4 44.2 4.3 31.2 1.9 23.2 1.5 8.3 0.7 6.4 2 24.4 1.7

237.1 2.1 23.9 0.2 213.2 2.3 18 2.3 41.5 1.6 6.3 31.1 4.1 3.2 1.9 9.4 2 46.2 4.5 31.9 2.4 23.5 1.5 8.4 1.1 6.3 -0.9 24.8 1.5

240.9 1.6 23.9 0.1 217 1.8 18.2 1 41.9 1 6.5 31.3 4.2 3.3 1.7 9.5 1 47.9 3.6 32.5 2 23.7 0.9 8.4 0.9 6.4 0.8 25.1 1.5

244.1 1.3 23.9 -0.1 220.2 1.5 18.3 0.5 42.3 0.9 6.6 31.5 4.3 3.3 1.5 9.6 0.7 49.5 3.3 33 1.3 23.8 0.4 8.5 0.7 6.4 0.8 25.5 1.5

247.2 1.3 23.8 -0.3 223.4 1.4 18.5 1 42.6 0.8 6.7 31.6 4.4 3.4 1.1 9.6 0.6 51.2 3.5 33.4 1.2 23.8 0.1 8.5 0.6 6.5 0.8 25.9 1.4

250.5 1.3 23.7 -0.3 226.7 1.5 18.7 1.4 42.9 0.6 6.9 31.6 4.5 3.4 1.1 9.7 0.8 53.1 3.6 33.8 1.3 23.8 0 8.6 0.8 6.5 0.7 26.2 1.2

253.9 1.4 23.8 0.1 230.2 1.5 19 1.6 43.2 0.6 7.1 31.5 4.7 3.5 1.2 9.8 0.6 55 3.6 34.2 1.2 23.8 0 8.7 0.9 6.6 0.7 26.5 1.2

257.5 1.4 23.8 0.2 233.7 1.5 19.3 1.5 43.4 0.5 7.3 31.4 4.8 3.5 1 9.8 0.4 57.1 3.8 34.7 1.4 23.8 -0.3 8.8 1 6.6 0.8 26.8 1.3

261.2 1.4 23.8 0 237.4 1.6 19.5 1.1 43.7 0.6 7.5 31.5 4.9 3.5 0.7 9.9 0.8 59.2 3.7 35.2 1.6 23.7 -0.2 8.8 0.8 6.7 0.8 27.1 1.1

18848.2 562.4 2 276.8 1.9 4 5655 4548 1107

19611.4 573.9 2 281.6 1.7 4.1 5618 4582 1036

20349.6 585.2 2 286.4 1.7 4.2 5400 4476 925

21043.9 596.6 1.9 291 1.6 4.2 5272 4386 886

21743.3 607.8 1.9 295.4 1.5 4.3 5205 4350 854

22486.9 618.6 1.8 299.6 1.4 4.4 5222 4354 868

23263.3 629.3 1.7 303.8 1.4 4.4 5280 4373 908

24064.6 639.5 1.6 308 1.4 4.5 5245 4330 915

24898.9 649.4 1.5 312.1 1.3 4.5 5173 4245 928

25771.1 659.6 1.6 316.1 1.3 4.5 5108 4161 946

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s vi l l e

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

38.9 5.7 17.5 21.3 26.4 3.7 57.9 39.4 65.6 3.5

41.1 5.7 18.4 22.6 27.4 3.7 60.2 40.2 67.9 3.5

43.3 5.6 19.3 24 28.4 3.6 62.5 40.9 70.2 3.4

45.8 5.7 20.3 25.5 29.4 3.7 65 41.7 72.7 3.6

48.4 5.7 21.4 27 30.5 3.6 67.6 42.6 75.3 3.6

51.1 5.6 22.5 28.7 31.6 3.6 70.3 43.4 78 3.5

54 5.7 23.6 30.4 32.7 3.6 73.1 44.2 80.8 3.6

57.1 5.7 24.8 32.2 33.9 3.6 76 45.1 83.7 3.6

60.2 5.5 26.1 34.1 35 3.4 79 45.9 86.7 3.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

264.6 1.3 23.7 -0.3 240.8 1.5 19.6 0.5 44 0.8 7.7 31.6 4.9 3.5 0.8 10 1 61.2 3.3 35.8 1.6 23.7 0.1 8.9 0.9 6.7 1 27.4 1

268.3 1.4 23.6 -0.5 244.7 1.6 19.7 0.7 44.4 0.9 7.9 31.7 5 3.6 0.9 10.1 1.2 63.2 3.3 36.4 1.7 23.8 0.2 9 1.1 6.9 1.8 27.7 1

272.1 1.4 23.5 -0.4 248.6 1.6 19.9 0.9 44.9 1.1 8.1 31.9 5.1 3.6 1.4 10.2 1.1 65.2 3.1 37 1.8 23.9 0.3 9.1 1.3 6.8 -0.2 27.9 0.9

276.3 1.6 23.4 -0.2 252.9 1.7 20.1 1.1 45.4 1.2 8.3 32.1 5.2 3.7 1.5 10.3 1.2 67.3 3.3 37.7 1.8 23.9 0.3 9.3 1.4 6.9 0.9 28.2 1

280.7 1.6 23.4 -0.2 257.3 1.7 20.4 1.3 46 1.2 8.5 32.4 5.3 3.7 1.6 10.4 1.1 69.5 3.3 38.3 1.7 24 0.3 9.4 1.5 7 0.9 28.5 1

285.2 1.6 23.3 -0.2 261.9 1.8 20.7 1.5 46.5 1.2 8.7 32.6 5.4 3.8 1.5 10.6 1.2 71.9 3.4 39 1.6 24.1 0.2 9.5 1.4 7 0.9 28.8 1

289.6 1.6 23.3 -0.2 266.3 1.7 21.1 1.9 47.1 1.2 9 32.8 5.5 3.9 1.5 10.7 1.3 74.1 3.1 39.5 1.5 24.1 0.3 9.7 1.3 7.1 0.9 29.1 1.1

294.1 1.5 23.3 -0.1 270.8 1.7 21.6 2.4 47.7 1.2 9.2 33.1 5.6 3.9 1.6 10.8 1.3 76.1 2.7 40.1 1.4 24.2 0.4 9.8 1.5 7.1 0.8 29.4 0.9

298.3 1.4 23.2 -0.1 275.1 1.6 22.1 2.3 48.3 1.3 9.5 33.3 5.8 4 1.7 11 1.2 77.9 2.3 40.7 1.4 24.3 0.5 9.9 1.5 7.2 0.8 29.7 1

26655 670.8 1.7 320.1 1.3 4.5 5065 4104 962

27565.8 682 1.7 324.7 1.4 4.5 5023 4039 984

28499.3 693.3 1.7 329.7 1.5 4.6 4962 3960 1002

29480.4 704.6 1.6 334.6 1.5 4.6 4914 3891 1023

30484.4 716 1.6 339.6 1.5 4.6 4864 3815 1048

31532.7 727.4 1.6 344.7 1.5 4.7 4880 3804 1076

32635 739 1.6 350 1.5 4.7 4934 3831 1103

33749.3 750.6 1.6 355.3 1.5 4.8 4963 3829 1134

34850.3 762.5 1.6 360.8 1.6 4.8 4905 3748 1158

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

109

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s vi l l e

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

63.5 5.4 27.4 36.1 36.2 3.3 82 46.7 89.7 3.5

66.9 5.4 28.7 38.2 37.3 3.2 85 47.5 92.7 3.4

70.5 5.4 30.1 40.4 38.6 3.3 88.3 48.3 96 3.5

74.3 5.4 31.6 42.7 39.8 3.2 91.5 49 99.2 3.3

78.3 5.4 33.2 45.1 41.1 3.3 94.9 49.8 102.6 3.5

82.5 5.3 34.9 47.6 42.4 3.2 98.4 50.6 106 3.3

86.9 5.4 36.6 50.3 43.8 3.3 102.1 51.5 109.6 3.4

91.7 5.4 38.5 53.2 45.3 3.3 106 52.4 113.3 3.4

96.7 5.5 40.4 56.2 46.8 3.3 110.2 53.3 117.2 3.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

110

Florida & Metro Forecast

302.4 1.4 23.2 -0.3 279.2 1.5 22.6 2.1 49 1.4 9.7 33.6 5.9 4.1 1.8 11.1 1.1 79.5 2.1 41.3 1.4 24.5 0.5 10.1 1.5 7.3 0.8 30 0.9

306.6 1.4 23.1 -0.4 283.5 1.5 23.1 2.2 49.6 1.4 9.9 34 6 4.1 1.7 11.2 1.2 81.2 2.2 41.9 1.4 24.6 0.6 10.2 1.4 7.3 0.8 30.2 0.9

311.3 1.5 23 -0.3 288.3 1.7 23.7 2.6 50.2 1.2 10.2 34.3 6.1 4.2 1.8 11.4 1.4 83.2 2.4 42.4 1.4 24.7 0.4 10.4 1.4 7.6 3.9 30.5 0.9

316.1 1.5 23 0 293.1 1.7 24.4 3.1 50.9 1.3 10.4 34.6 6.2 4.3 2 11.5 1.4 85.3 2.6 43 1.4 24.8 0.5 10.5 1.5 7.5 -2 30.8 0.9

321.1 1.6 23 0 298.2 1.7 25.1 2.8 51.6 1.3 10.7 35 6.3 4.4 2.2 11.7 1.3 87.5 2.6 43.7 1.5 24.9 0.4 10.7 1.6 7.5 0.8 31.1 0.9

326.4 1.6 23 -0.1 303.4 1.8 25.7 2.6 52.2 1.3 10.9 35.3 6.3 4.5 2.2 11.9 1.4 90 2.8 44.3 1.4 25.1 0.5 10.9 1.4 7.6 0.8 31.3 0.9

331.7 1.6 22.9 -0.1 308.8 1.8 26.4 2.6 52.8 1.1 11.2 35.6 6.4 4.6 2.2 12 1.4 92.7 3 44.8 1.3 25.1 0.3 11 1.4 7.6 0.8 31.6 0.9

337 1.6 22.9 0 314.1 1.7 27 2.4 53.4 1.1 11.4 36 6.5 4.7 2.1 12.2 1.3 95.5 3 45.3 1.1 25.2 0.3 11.2 1.4 7.7 0.8 31.9 0.9

342.5 1.6 22.9 0.1 319.5 1.7 27.7 2.4 53.9 0.9 11.6 36.2 6.5 4.8 2.1 12.3 1.3 98.5 3.1 45.8 1.1 25.2 0.1 11.3 1.4 7.8 0.8 32.2 0.9

35959 774.5 1.6 366.5 1.6 4.8 4800 3625 1174

37115.3 786.4 1.5 372.2 1.6 4.8 4758 3572 1186

38351.6 798.7 1.6 378 1.6 4.9 4783 3584 1198

39620.2 812 1.7 384 1.6 4.9 4772 3559 1213

40912.9 825.2 1.6 390 1.6 4.9 4677 3456 1221

42265.5 838.3 1.6 396.1 1.6 5 4635 3407 1228

43705 851.4 1.6 402.4 1.6 5 4641 3410 1231

45191.3 864.4 1.5 408.7 1.6 5 4650 3423 1227

46745.3 877.4 1.5 415.1 1.6 5 4663 3438 1225

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Pensacola – Ferry Pass – Brent MSA is comprised of Escambia County and Santa Rosa County. Located in the northwest corner of the state bordering Alabama, this region is home to the Pensacola Naval Air Station, Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval Aviation. This area has been referred to as the “Cradle of Naval Aviation.”

The Pensacola area is expected to exhibit an average quarterly change in personal income of 5.9% over the next three years. Moderate increases in average annual wage are expected at an average quarterly rate of 3.2%.

The professional and business services sector and the educational and health services sector are expected to experience the most growth at average quarterly rates of 2.9% and 2.1%, respectively.

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 439,987 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Escambia County population estimate of 295,426 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Santa Rosa County population estimate of 144,561 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 206,600 in December 2006 for the MSA (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3.0%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 6,209 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Local Government - 15,790 employees • Federal Government - 7,403 employees • State Government - 5,970 employees • Sacred Heart Health System - 3,500 employees • Baptist Health Care - 3,470 employees • University of West Florida - 2,267 employees • Solutia, Inc. - 1,800 employees • Lakeview -1,500 employees • Gulf Power Company - 1,400 employees • West Florida Hospital - 1,200 employees Source: Greater Pensacola Chamber of Commerce

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Pensacola Civic Center keeps the hits coming • The Pensacola Civic Center is the most important entertainment venue in the area.

• It is home to the Pensacola Ice Pilots hockey team, and it hosts many famous performers, such as Cher and Elton John.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, May 5, 2007 More Marines on the way • The Marine Corps will be expanding from 181,000 to 202,000 by the year 2012.

• Infrastructure in Pensacola around the Navy base will improve with the addition of these Marines.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, May 1, 2007 Hotel bed boom • The Pensacola Bay Area tourism sector is growing around the act of shopping, which is now considered the No. 1 tourist activity according to hotels.

• Developers are increasing development in the Pensacola inland area because of its lower development costs than coastal areas, and because they see more tourists coming to the area.

• Seven hundred rooms, a 12 percent increase above the current 6,000 rooms, are expected to make their way inland as parts of various threestar hotels.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, May 13, 2007

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

111

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

400 jobs coming to Milton • Clearwire Corporation, a high-speed internet service company based in Washington, is bringing 400 jobs to East Milton.

• The newly hired employees will answer technical questions Clearwire’s customers have about the service at a call center in the area and are promised an hourly wage of no less than $15.78, a 115 percent increase from the current hourly wage in Santa Rosa County.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, April 4, 2007 Pensacola Regional Airport growing • The Pensacola Regional Airport is in the process of a $100 million expansion, with construction expected to begin in 2008.

• The funds will be distributed as follows: $50 million for the terminal, $25 million for the new parking garage, and $25 million for the remainder.

• Some of the new additions at the airport include in-line baggage screening, more retail stores and restaurants, parking garage expansions, and relocation of the rental car services.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, April 16, 2007 MSN touts Pensacola’s affordability • MSN real estate has ranked the Pensacola metropolitan area as the seventh most affordable market in the nation in its ranking of the most affordable places to live and work in the country.

Source: The Pensacola News Journal, March 17, 2007

112

Florida & Metro Forecast

Heard it on the street • Pensacola is waiting to find out if the city will be chosen as the location for a nonstop route to the Reagan National Airport in Washington, D.C. • They are competing with four other cities, but Regional Airport Director Frank Miller said that Pensacola is sure to be at the top of the list.

• This direct route would enhance the Pensacola economy by providing a more direct link between the military base and the capital.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, May 3, 2007

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

0.3

Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

(percent)

0.6

1.5

35000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

30000.0 25000.0 20000.0 15000.0 10000.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 FL Unemployment Rate Pensacola Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

5000.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Gross Metro Product

Pensacola Real Personal Income 7.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

220.0

5.0%

200.0

4.0%

180.0

3.0%

160.0 140.0

1.2

Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product

Pensacola Payroll Employment 240.0

0.9

2.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Pensacola Payroll Employment

1.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

113

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast* 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

13.7 5.7 6.7 7.1 11.8 3.9 31 26.6 35.9 4.1

13.9 5.6 6.7 7.2 11.9 4 31.3 26.8 36.2 4.1

14.1 5.7 6.8 7.3 12 3.5 31.7 27 36.4 3.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2009Q4

14.3 5.5 6.8 7.4 12.1 3.5 32.1 27.2 36.6 2.3

14.5 5.7 6.9 7.6 12.2 3.9 32.5 27.4 36.9 2.6

14.7 6 7 7.7 12.3 4 32.9 27.6 37.1 2.7

14.9 6 7.1 7.9 12.5 4 33.3 27.8 37.4 2.8

15.2 6.1 7.1 8 12.6 3.9 33.7 28 37.7 3

15.4 6.2 7.2 8.2 12.7 4 34.2 28.2 38 3.1

15.7 6.3 7.3 8.3 12.9 4.2 34.6 28.5 38.3 3.2

15.9 6.5 7.4 8.5 13 4.4 35.1 28.7 38.6 3.3

173.2 0.6 7.3 -2.6 165.9 0.7 14.5 -4.3 32.4 0 6.3 21.8 4.3 3.7 -4.7 9 3 23.2 0.3 27.8 3.9 17.9 0.6 8 1.6 6.5 -3.4 22.9 2.8

173.5 0.7 7.2 -2.2 166.3 0.9 14.4 -6.9 32.4 0.4 6.3 21.8 4.3 3.7 -1.4 9 3.1 23.4 2.3 27.9 3.1 17.9 1.9 8 2.1 6.6 -1.3 23 1.7

174.2 1 7.2 -1.2 167.1 1.1 14.5 -3.5 32.6 1.1 6.4 22 4.3 3.7 -0.8 9 2.1 23.6 3 28 1.6 18.1 1.9 8 1.8 6.6 0.8 23.1 0.9

174.9 1.3 7.1 -2.3 167.8 1.5 14.5 -0.8 32.9 2 6.4 22.1 4.4 3.7 -1 9 0.5 23.8 3.5 28 1 18.2 2.6 8 0.7 6.6 1 23.1 1

175.7 1.5 7.1 -2.4 168.6 1.6 14.5 -0.1 33.1 2.3 6.4 22.3 4.4 3.7 -0.2 9 0.3 24 3.7 28.1 1.2 18.3 2.4 8 0.3 6.6 1 23.2 1.1

176.4 1.7 7.1 -2 169.4 1.8 14.5 0.8 33.3 2.7 6.5 22.4 4.5 3.7 1 9.1 0.4 24.3 4 28.3 1.6 18.3 1.9 8 -0.1 6.6 0.2 23.2 1.1

177.1 1.7 7 -1.8 170.1 1.8 14.5 0.2 33.5 2.7 6.5 22.5 4.5 3.8 2.9 9.1 0.7 24.5 4 28.5 1.8 18.4 1.6 8 -0.2 6.6 -0.5 23.3 1.2

177.9 1.7 7 -1.6 170.9 1.8 14.5 0.3 33.7 2.3 6.6 22.6 4.5 3.8 3.4 9.1 1.2 24.8 4.2 28.6 2.3 18.5 1.3 8 0 6.5 -1.6 23.4 1.2

178.7 1.7 7 -1.2 171.8 1.8 14.6 0.8 33.8 2.2 6.6 22.7 4.6 3.8 3.1 9.1 1.3 25.1 4.4 28.8 2.2 18.5 0.8 8 0 6.5 -1.3 23.5 1.2

179.6 1.8 7 -0.9 172.6 1.9 14.7 1.3 34 2.1 6.7 22.7 4.6 3.8 2.9 9.2 1.4 25.4 4.4 28.8 1.8 18.5 1.2 8 0 6.6 -0.2 23.5 1.2

180.4 1.8 7 -0.7 173.4 1.9 14.8 2.4 34.1 1.9 6.7 22.8 4.7 3.9 2.5 9.2 1.7 25.6 4.4 28.9 1.5 18.5 1.1 8 0.2 6.7 1.5 23.6 1.3

14436.9 442.5 0.6 206.5 1.9 3.4 2514 1852 662

14530.2 443.2 0.6 207.4 1.8 3.5 2561 1917 644

14641 444 0.6 208.2 0.9 3.5 2649 2033 616

14761.1 444.9 0.7 209 1.7 3.6 2711 2130 581

14913.9 446 0.8 209.8 1.6 3.6 2732 2194 537

15055.4 447.1 0.9 210.5 1.5 3.6 2752 2249 503

15202.5 448.2 0.9 211.2 1.4 3.6 2770 2300 471

15310.8 449.4 1 211.8 1.4 3.6 2787 2355 432

15464.1 450.7 1.1 212.5 1.3 3.6 2807 2417 390

15608.9 452 1.1 213.1 1.2 3.6 2816 2469 347

15754.6 453.3 1.1 213.7 1.2 3.7 2823 2522 301

*Quarterly at an annual rate

114

2009Q3

Florida & Metro Forecast

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

9.1 3.7 4.6 4.5 9.3 2 22.1 22.7 27.3 3.5

9.7 6.9 4.9 4.8 9.7 4.3 23.4 23.4 28.8 5.6

10.2 4.8 5.1 5.1 10 2.6 24.2 23.7 29.6 2.8

10.5 3.2 5.1 5.4 10.1 1.8 24.7 23.8 29.9 1

10.9 4.1 5.4 5.6 10.3 2.1 25.4 24.1 30.8 3

11.6 6.5 5.7 5.9 10.7 3.8 26.8 24.7 32.5 5.5

12.4 6.3 6.1 6.3 11.1 3.3 28.2 25.3 33.6 3.5

13.1 5.9 6.4 6.7 11.4 3.1 29.7 25.9 34.7 3.3

13.8 5.5 6.7 7.1 11.8 3.5 31.2 26.7 36.1 3.8

14.6 5.8 7 7.7 12.3 3.8 32.7 27.5 37 2.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

152.7 -0.2 9.4 -5.7 143.4 0.2 11.6 0.1 29.8 0.2 5.3 20.9 3.7 4.3 8 6.6 0.3 17.3 -0.9 23.1 -0.7 14.7 -0.7 7.3 5.5 7.6 -2.1 21.1 0.6

153.3 0.4 8.8 -6.3 144.5 0.8 12.1 4.3 29.6 -0.9 5.2 21 3.4 4.2 -2.2 6.8 4.2 17.8 2.7 23.5 1.7 14 -4.2 7.5 2.3 7.7 0.9 21.3 1.2

155.1 1.2 7.9 -10.2 147.2 1.9 12.8 6.3 29.1 -1.7 5.5 20.2 3.4 3.7 -11.3 6.9 1.2 18.3 2.5 24.2 3 15.7 11.7 7.4 -0.7 7.4 -4.2 21.7 1.9

154.7 -0.3 7.3 -7.1 147.3 0.1 11.1 -13.4 29.1 0.2 5.3 20.5 3.4 4.2 13.6 6.5 -6 19.2 5.4 25.3 4.6 15.7 -0.2 7.7 2.9 6.9 -6.2 21.6 -0.8

158.5 2.5 7.4 1.2 151.1 2.6 10.8 -2.8 29.4 1 5.3 20.8 3.3 4.1 -2 6.8 4.6 20.1 4.6 26.8 6.2 16.6 6.1 7.9 2.6 6.9 -0.5 21.6 0

162.9 2.8 7.3 -1.3 155.6 3 11.7 7.8 30.4 3.2 5.6 21.1 3.7 3.9 -4.5 7.5 9.8 21.6 7.2 26.7 -0.4 17.4 4.7 7.9 0.9 6.7 -2.2 21.8 0.9

168.7 3.6 7.5 3.1 161.1 3.6 13.9 19.4 32.3 6.2 6.2 21.9 4.2 3.7 -4.7 8.2 9.9 23.1 7.1 26 -2.9 17.2 -0.9 7.8 -1.6 6.7 -0.5 22.2 2

172.4 2.2 7.4 -2.4 165.1 2.4 15.1 8.9 32.4 0.4 6.1 22 4.2 3.8 1.7 8.7 6.3 23.1 0.2 27 4.1 17.7 2.9 7.8 0.3 6.7 0.1 22.5 1.6

173.4 0.6 7.2 -1.9 166.2 0.7 14.5 -4.3 32.4 0.1 6.3 21.8 4.3 3.7 -3.1 9 3.1 23.3 0.6 27.8 3.1 17.9 1 8 1.9 6.6 -2.2 23 1.9

176.1 1.5 7.1 -2.1 169 1.7 14.5 0 33.2 2.4 6.5 22.3 4.4 3.7 0.7 9 0.5 24.2 3.8 28.2 1.4 18.3 2.1 8 0.2 6.6 0.4 23.2 1.1

10900.3 410.5 0.5 181.3 0.9 3.8 3068 2837 230

11035.8 413.8 0.8 187.5 3.4 4 2545 2486 59

11336.9 419.7 1.4 186.4 -0.6 4.8 3113 2997 116

11633.1 425.2 1.3 186.6 0.1 5.3 3207 3021 186

12162.9 429.8 1.1 191.3 2.5 4.9 4504 3616 887

12812.8 434.4 1.1 194.8 1.9 4.7 4784 3703 1081

13675.7 438.2 0.9 199.2 2.2 3.8 3821 3340 480

14269.3 440.3 0.5 204 2.4 3.1 2830 2455 375

14490.4 442.9 0.6 206.9 1.4 3.4 2631 1941 690

14983.2 446.5 0.8 210.1 1.5 3.6 2741 2218 523

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

115

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

15.5 6.3 7.3 8.3 12.8 4.1 34.4 28.3 38.2 3.1

16.5 6.5 7.6 8.9 13.4 4.4 36.2 29.2 39.4 3.4

17.5 6 8 9.5 13.9 4 37.9 30 40.7 3.2

18.4 5.2 8.3 10.1 14.3 3.2 39.3 30.6 42.1 3.2

19.3 4.8 8.7 10.7 14.7 2.8 40.7 31 43.4 3.1

20.3 5 9 11.3 15.2 3 42.3 31.6 44.7 3

21.3 5.1 9.3 12 15.7 3.2 43.9 32.2 46 3

22.4 5.1 9.6 12.8 16.1 3.1 45.6 32.9 47.4 3

23.6 5.2 10 13.6 16.7 3.2 47.5 33.6 48.8 3

24.8 5.2 10.4 14.5 17.2 3.2 49.5 34.3 50.3 3.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

116

Florida & Metro Forecast

179.1 1.8 7 -1.1 172.2 1.9 14.7 1.2 33.9 2.1 6.6 22.7 4.6 3.8 3 9.2 1.4 25.2 4.3 28.8 2 18.5 1.1 8 0.1 6.6 -0.4 23.5 1.2

182.2 1.7 7 -0.4 175.2 1.8 15 2.6 34.4 1.5 6.8 22.9 4.8 3.9 2.2 9.3 1.8 26.2 4 29.2 1.3 18.7 1.1 8 0.5 6.6 0.6 23.8 1.3

185.1 1.6 6.9 -0.7 178.1 1.7 15.3 1.7 34.8 1.1 6.9 23 4.9 4 1.6 9.5 1.5 27.3 4.2 29.7 1.8 18.9 1 8.1 0.9 6.6 -0.6 24 1

187 1 6.8 -1 180.1 1.1 15.4 0.4 34.9 0.5 7 23 5 4 1.3 9.5 0.4 28.2 3.3 30.1 1.4 18.9 0.4 8.2 0.6 6.6 0.2 24.3 1

188.3 0.7 6.8 -1.1 181.5 0.8 15.3 -0.2 35 0.3 7.1 23 5 4.1 1.1 9.5 0.1 29 2.9 30.3 0.7 18.9 -0.2 8.2 0.4 6.6 0.2 24.5 0.9

189.6 0.7 6.7 -0.9 182.9 0.7 15.4 0.3 35.1 0.2 7.2 22.8 5.1 4.1 0.8 9.5 0.1 29.9 3.1 30.5 0.5 18.8 -0.5 8.2 0.3 6.6 0.2 24.7 0.9

190.8 0.7 6.7 -0.7 184.2 0.7 15.5 0.6 35.1 0 7.3 22.7 5.2 4.1 0.8 9.5 0.1 30.9 3.2 30.6 0.4 18.7 -0.6 8.3 0.4 6.6 0.1 24.9 0.6

192.1 0.6 6.6 -0.6 185.4 0.7 15.6 0.8 35.1 0.1 7.4 22.5 5.3 4.2 0.7 9.5 0 31.9 3.1 30.7 0.3 18.6 -0.7 8.3 0.5 6.6 0 25 0.4

193.4 0.7 6.6 -0.5 186.8 0.7 15.7 0.7 35.1 -0.1 7.5 22.2 5.4 4.2 0.5 9.5 -0.2 33 3.4 30.9 0.5 18.4 -1 8.4 0.6 6.6 0.1 25.1 0.5

194.6 0.7 6.5 -0.7 188.1 0.7 15.8 0.4 35.1 0 7.6 22.1 5.5 4.2 0.2 9.5 0.2 34 3.3 31.1 0.7 18.2 -0.8 8.4 0.5 6.6 0 25.2 0.4

15534.6 451.4 1.1 212.8 1.2 3.6 2808 2440 368

16079.3 457 1.2 215.1 1.1 3.7 2788 2501 287

16612.6 462.8 1.3 217.5 1.1 3.7 2729 2470 259

17084.2 468.9 1.3 219.6 1 3.8 2675 2426 250

17552 474.8 1.2 221.5 0.9 3.9 2650 2411 239

18055.4 480.4 1.2 223.3 0.8 3.9 2644 2405 239

18570.4 485.8 1.1 225 0.8 4 2652 2406 246

19087.5 491.2 1.1 226.6 0.7 4.1 2618 2368 250

19623.5 496.2 1 228.2 0.7 4.1 2560 2304 255

20176.8 501.2 1 229.7 0.7 4.1 2495 2237 258

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

26 4.9 10.7 15.3 17.7 3 51.4 35 51.9 3.1

27.3 4.9 11.1 16.2 18.2 2.9 53.4 35.6 53.5 3.1

28.6 4.8 11.5 17.1 18.7 2.8 55.5 36.3 55.1 3

30 4.8 12 18 19.3 2.9 57.6 37 56.8 3.2

31.4 4.8 12.5 19 19.8 2.8 59.9 37.7 58.6 3.2

33 4.8 13 20 20.3 2.8 62.2 38.4 60.4 3.1

34.5 4.8 13.5 21.1 20.9 2.7 64.6 39.1 62.4 3.2

36.2 4.8 14 22.2 21.5 2.7 67.1 39.8 64.4 3.2

37.9 4.7 14.6 23.4 22 2.6 69.7 40.5 66.4 3.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

195.7 0.6 6.5 -1.1 189.3 0.6 15.7 -0.3 35.1 0 7.8 22 5.5 4.2 0.2 9.6 0.4 35 2.8 31.2 0.6 18.1 -0.6 8.4 0.5 6.6 0.3 25.2 0.2

197.1 0.7 6.4 -1.1 190.7 0.7 15.7 -0.1 35.2 0.2 7.9 21.9 5.5 4.2 0.4 9.6 0.6 36 2.9 31.4 0.6 18.1 -0.4 8.5 0.7 6.6 0.2 25.3 0.3

198.5 0.7 6.3 -1.1 192.2 0.8 15.7 0.2 35.3 0.4 8 21.8 5.5 4.3 0.9 9.7 0.5 37 2.7 31.7 0.8 18 -0.3 8.6 0.9 6.6 -0.2 25.4 0.2

200.2 0.8 6.3 -1.1 193.9 0.9 15.8 0.4 35.5 0.5 8.2 21.8 5.6 4.3 0.9 9.7 0.6 38 2.9 32 0.8 17.9 -0.3 8.7 1.1 6.6 0 25.4 0.2

201.9 0.9 6.2 -1.1 195.8 0.9 15.9 0.6 35.7 0.5 8.3 21.8 5.7 4.3 1 9.8 0.5 39.1 2.9 32.2 0.8 17.9 -0.3 8.8 1.2 6.6 0 25.5 0.2

203.7 0.9 6.1 -1.1 197.6 0.9 16 0.8 35.8 0.5 8.4 21.8 5.7 4.4 0.9 9.9 0.6 40.3 3 32.4 0.7 17.8 -0.4 8.9 1.1 6.6 0 25.5 0.2

205.4 0.8 6.1 -1.1 199.3 0.9 16.2 1.1 36 0.4 8.6 21.7 5.8 4.4 0.8 9.9 0.7 41.4 2.7 32.6 0.5 17.8 -0.3 9 1 6.6 -0.1 25.6 0.3

207.1 0.8 6 -1.1 201.1 0.9 16.4 1.6 36.2 0.5 8.7 21.7 5.9 4.5 0.9 10 0.7 42.3 2.3 32.7 0.5 17.7 -0.2 9.1 1.1 6.6 -0.1 25.6 0.1

208.7 0.8 5.9 -0.9 202.7 0.8 16.7 1.5 36.4 0.6 8.8 21.7 5.9 4.5 1.1 10.1 0.6 43.1 1.9 32.9 0.5 17.7 -0.1 9.2 1.2 6.6 -0.1 25.7 0.2

20723.2 506.1 1 231.1 0.6 4.1 2467 2201 266

21280.4 510.9 0.9 232.9 0.8 4.1 2434 2162 272

21855.4 515.7 0.9 234.9 0.9 4.2 2371 2102 269

22453.4 520.5 0.9 236.9 0.8 4.2 2329 2060 269

23060.4 525.1 0.9 238.8 0.8 4.2 2275 2008 267

23687.4 529.8 0.9 240.8 0.8 4.3 2267 1997 269

24335.2 534.4 0.9 242.9 0.8 4.3 2288 2016 272

24982.3 539.1 0.9 244.9 0.9 4.3 2298 2019 278

25614.2 543.8 0.9 247.1 0.9 4.4 2260 1977 283

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

117

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

39.7 4.6 15.1 24.5 22.6 2.5 72.3 41.2 68.4 3.1

41.5 4.5 15.7 25.8 23.1 2.4 74.9 41.8 70.5 3.1

43.4 4.6 16.3 27.1 23.7 2.5 77.8 42.5 72.7 3.1

45.3 4.5 16.9 28.4 24.3 2.4 80.6 43.2 74.9 2.9

47.4 4.6 17.5 29.8 24.9 2.4 83.6 43.9 77.2 3.1

49.5 4.4 18.2 31.3 25.5 2.3 86.6 44.6 79.4 2.9

51.7 4.5 18.9 32.8 26.1 2.4 89.8 45.3 81.8 3

54.1 4.5 19.6 34.4 26.7 2.4 93.2 46 84.3 3

56.5 4.6 20.4 36.1 27.3 2.4 96.7 46.7 86.8 3.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

118

Florida & Metro Forecast

210.2 0.7 5.9 -1.1 204.3 0.8 16.9 1.3 36.6 0.6 9 21.7 6 4.6 1.1 10.1 0.5 43.8 1.7 33 0.5 17.7 -0.1 9.3 1.2 6.6 -0.1 25.7 0.1

211.7 0.7 5.8 -1.2 205.9 0.8 17.1 1.3 36.8 0.6 9.1 21.7 6.1 4.6 1.1 10.2 0.6 44.6 1.8 33.2 0.5 17.7 0 9.4 1.1 6.6 -0.1 25.7 0.1

213.5 0.9 5.7 -1.2 207.8 0.9 17.4 1.8 36.9 0.4 9.2 21.7 6.1 4.7 1.2 10.2 0.7 45.5 2 33.3 0.4 17.7 -0.2 9.5 1.1 6.8 3 25.8 0.1

215.3 0.8 5.7 -0.9 209.6 0.9 17.8 2.2 37.1 0.5 9.4 21.7 6.1 4.7 1.4 10.3 0.7 46.5 2.2 33.5 0.5 17.6 0 9.6 1.1 6.6 -2.8 25.8 0.1

217.2 0.9 5.6 -0.9 211.6 0.9 18.2 2 37.3 0.5 9.5 21.8 6.2 4.8 1.6 10.4 0.7 47.5 2.2 33.6 0.5 17.6 -0.2 9.7 1.2 6.6 -0.1 25.8 0.1

219.2 0.9 5.6 -0.9 213.6 1 18.5 1.7 37.5 0.4 9.6 21.8 6.2 4.9 1.5 10.5 0.8 48.7 2.4 33.8 0.4 17.6 -0.1 9.8 1.1 6.6 -0.1 25.9 0.1

221.2 0.9 5.5 -1 215.6 1 18.8 1.7 37.6 0.3 9.7 21.8 6.2 5 1.6 10.5 0.8 49.9 2.6 33.9 0.3 17.5 -0.3 9.9 1 6.6 -0.1 25.9 0.1

223 0.9 5.5 -0.9 217.6 0.9 19.1 1.5 37.7 0.2 9.8 21.8 6.2 5 1.5 10.6 0.6 51.2 2.6 34 0.2 17.5 -0.2 10 1 6.6 -0.1 25.9 0.1

225 0.9 5.4 -0.8 219.5 0.9 19.4 1.5 37.7 0.1 9.9 21.8 6.2 5.1 1.5 10.7 0.6 52.6 2.7 34 0.1 17.4 -0.5 10.1 1 6.6 -0.1 25.9 0.1

26243.3 548.4 0.9 249.3 0.9 4.4 2198 1912 286

26898 553.1 0.8 251.5 0.9 4.4 2172 1886 287

27596 557.6 0.8 253.7 0.9 4.4 2183 1895 288

28297.4 562.2 0.8 255.9 0.9 4.5 2174 1885 289

29006 566.8 0.8 258.2 0.9 4.5 2118 1831 288

29746.2 571.3 0.8 260.5 0.9 4.5 2092 1807 285

30535.4 575.8 0.8 262.8 0.9 4.5 2095 1812 283

31344.1 580.2 0.8 265.1 0.9 4.6 2101 1822 279

32185.6 584.7 0.8 267.4 0.9 4.6 2108 1833 275

Ta l l aha s s ee

P r o fi l e s The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla counties. It is located between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State University and Florida A&M University.

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 336,498 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Gadsden County population estimate of 46,654 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Jefferson County population estimate of 14,677 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Leon County population estimate of 245,625 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Wakulla County population estimate of 29,542 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • An MSA civilian labor force of 186,631 in December 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 2.6%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 4,770 unemployed people for the entire region.

(Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • State Government (all departments) – 46,200 employees • Local Government (all departments) – 16,100 employees • Tallahassee Memorial Healthcare – 2,750 employees • Federal Government (all departments) – 1,900 employees • Alltel Florida, Inc. – 1,000 employees • Tallahassee Leon County Civic Center - 672 employees

• Quincy Corp. - 575 employees • Capital Regional Medical Center - 572 employees • Meridian Healthcare Group - 500 employees • Branch Banking & Trust Co. - 403 employees Sources: Florida Regional Economic Database and Tallahassee Economic Development Council

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s The Tallahassee region is expected to exhibit an average quarterly growth rate of 3.6%, ranking it second statewide, that will continue to push up the area’s average annual wage, which is expected to be 38.7.

The trade, transportation, and utilities sector and leisure sector will exhibit the strongest growth over the next three years; these sectors are expected to show average annual wage rates of 2.4% and 2.2%, respectively.

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Piper looking at Tallahassee • Piper Aircraft, a major American airplane manufacturer, is considering Tallahassee as the site of its new assembly plant. The plant could eventually employ 1,500 workers, according to local economic-development leaders. If Tallahassee is chosen out of the five other cities under consideration, Piper would be one of the largest employers in Leon County.

• Tallahassee’s Economic Development Council has selected a 275-acre site near the airport for the plant. If selected, the city will build the necessary facilities and lease them to the company.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, May 1, 2007

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

119

Ta l l aha s s ee

Tallahassee a buyer’s market • Tallahassee’s housing market has shifted to a buyer’s market. In April, there were 3,901 active listings, of which 412 closed. In April of 2005, 35 percent of active listings closed, as compared to the 1 percent last month.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, May 17, 2007 Area growth issues loom large • Tallahassee has found its growth and development spilling over into neighboring counties. The city’s neighboring counties have shown opposition to this overflow because it is causing heavy unwanted congestion. Questions have been raised about the adequacy of public services, such as water and sewer, to support the expansion.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, May 11, 2007 Ring Power opens new facility • Ring Power Corp., a dealer of large industrial equipment, opened a new facility in Gadsden County in early May. The 108,000-square-foot facility, consolidating the heavy equipment from the company’s former complex in Tallahassee, will employ about 85 workers.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, May 4, 2007 Tourism Board Sets Boundaries • The Gadsden Tourist Development Board met to hammer out the details of legality issues as well as particulars for the disbursement of its $32,000 budget. Once these issues have been handled, the board will be able to more effectively promote the county.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, May 8, 2007

120

Florida & Metro Forecast

CEO Bank’s sale will enhance services • Florida Bank Group Inc. recently purchased the Bank of Tallahassee. The merger will result in expanded services, branch expansion, access to bigger loans, and more community service. The Tallahassee bank will retain its name, charter, locations, board of directors, and management team.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, May 3, 2007 Workforce Plus center opens • Workforce Plus has opened a new Executive Center that will specialize in providing employment and recruitment services to professional job candidates and companies at no cost. The center will provide professional candidates with training and education and employers with on-site recruiting and help with ongoing training.

• According to Sue Dick, the Executive Center is the first stand-alone center of its kind in the state and will create and retain jobs locally.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, March 28, 2007

Ta l l aha s s ee Tallahassee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

0.5

Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0%

(percent)

1.0

2.0

2.5

3.0

Tallahassee Real Gross Metro Product 30000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

25000.0 20000.0 15000.0 10000.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 FL Unemployment Rate Tallahassee Unemployment Rate

5000.0

(Thousands)

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Gross Metro Product

Tallahassee Real Personal Income

Tallahassee Payroll Employment 230.0 220.0 210.0 200.0 190.0 180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0

1.5

8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Tallahassee Payroll Employment

-2.0%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

121

Ta l l aha s s ee

Quarterly Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast* 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

11.1 6.1 6.7 4.4 9.5 4.2 32.5 27.9 37.3 4.2

11.2 5.6 6.8 4.4 9.6 3.9 32.9 28.1 37.6 4.3

11.4 5.8 6.8 4.5 9.7 3.5 33.2 28.3 37.9 3.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2009Q4

11.5 5.2 6.9 4.6 9.8 3.3 33.6 28.4 38.2 2.7

11.7 5.5 7 4.7 9.8 3.7 34 28.6 38.5 3.1

11.9 5.7 7.1 4.8 9.9 3.7 34.3 28.8 38.8 3.2

12 5.8 7.2 4.9 10 3.7 34.7 29 39.1 3.3

12.2 5.9 7.2 5 10.1 3.7 35.1 29.1 39.5 3.5

12.4 6 7.3 5.1 10.2 3.9 35.5 29.3 39.8 3.6

12.6 6.2 7.4 5.2 10.3 4.1 36 29.6 40.2 3.7

12.8 6.4 7.5 5.3 10.5 4.3 36.4 29.8 40.6 3.8

178.9 1.5 4.4 1.3 174.4 1.5 9.8 -3.4 26.8 3.6 3.7 20.7 2.5 3.7 -5.6 8.5 1.3 19.5 -3 17.4 0.6 16.5 3 8.9 6.2 1.9 1.5 61.5 2.5

179.1 0.8 4.4 0.7 174.8 0.8 9.6 -4.7 26.9 3.5 3.7 20.7 2.5 3.6 -7.1 8.5 2 19.7 -3.7 17.5 1 16.5 4.7 8.9 4.1 1.9 1 61.6 0.8

179.7 1.2 4.4 -0.6 175.3 1.2 9.6 -4.8 27 2.6 3.7 20.8 2.5 3.6 -5.3 8.5 1.8 19.9 0.4 17.5 1.4 16.6 4.5 8.9 2.4 1.9 1.8 61.7 1.2

180.3 1.1 4.4 -1.5 176 1.1 9.5 -3.7 27.2 1.7 3.8 21 2.5 3.6 -0.7 8.5 0.3 20.1 3.8 17.6 1 16.8 2.5 8.9 1 1.9 1.4 61.8 0.7

181 1.2 4.3 -1.7 176.6 1.3 9.5 -2.6 27.4 2 3.8 21 2.6 3.7 0 8.5 0.1 20.3 4 17.7 1.2 16.9 2.3 8.9 0.5 1.9 1.3 61.9 0.7

181.5 1.3 4.3 -1.3 177.2 1.4 9.5 -1.6 27.5 2.4 3.8 21.1 2.6 3.7 1.3 8.5 0.2 20.5 4.2 17.8 1.6 16.8 1.9 8.9 0.2 1.9 0.5 62 0.7

182.1 1.4 4.3 -1 177.8 1.4 9.4 -1.6 27.7 2.3 3.8 21.2 2.6 3.7 3 8.5 0.4 20.7 4.1 17.9 1.8 16.9 1.6 8.9 0.1 1.9 -0.2 62.2 0.8

182.8 1.4 4.3 -0.9 178.4 1.4 9.4 -1 27.8 1.8 3.8 21.3 2.6 3.8 3.5 8.5 0.9 20.9 4.3 18 2.2 17 1.1 8.9 0.2 1.9 -2.5 62.3 0.8

183.5 1.4 4.3 -0.4 179.2 1.4 9.5 -0.2 27.9 1.8 3.9 21.4 2.7 3.8 3.2 8.5 1 21.2 4.5 18 2.1 17 0.7 9 0.2 1.9 -1.4 62.4 0.8

184.2 1.5 4.3 -0.2 179.8 1.5 9.6 0.8 28 1.7 3.9 21.4 2.7 3.8 3 8.6 1.1 21.4 4.4 18.1 1.7 17 1 9 0.2 1.9 0.4 62.5 0.8

184.9 1.5 4.3 0 180.5 1.5 9.6 2.1 28 1.4 3.9 21.4 2.7 3.8 2.5 8.6 1.4 21.6 4.4 18.1 1.3 17.1 0.9 9 0.4 2 3 62.7 0.9

12908.5 340.4 1.1 185 2.6 2.9 3062 2299 763

12983.2 341.2 1.1 185.6 1.7 3 2963 2213 749

13073.6 342.2 1.1 186.3 1.4 3 2892 2132 760

13179.2 343.2 1.1 186.9 1.4 3 2882 2102 779

13308.8 344.2 1.1 187.4 1.3 3.1 2873 2095 779

13427.3 345.3 1.2 188 1.3 3 2890 2097 793

13553.8 346.4 1.2 188.5 1.2 3.1 2936 2122 815

13647 347.6 1.3 189 1.1 3.1 2989 2152 837

13776.8 348.8 1.3 189.4 1.1 3.1 3006 2175 832

13899 349.9 1.3 189.8 1 3.1 3016 2189 827

14021.9 351.2 1.4 190.3 0.9 3.1 3017 2204 813

*Quarterly at an annual rate

122

2009Q3

Florida & Metro Forecast

Ta l l aha s s ee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

7.6 6.1 4.7 2.9 7.7 4.4 23.8 24.4 28.7 3.8

8 5.2 5 3 8 2.7 24.8 24.8 29.8 3.7

8.3 3.7 5.2 3 8.1 1.6 25.6 25.1 31.3 5

8.4 2.1 5.3 3.1 8.1 0.7 26 25.1 32.2 2.9

8.7 3.6 5.5 3.3 8.3 1.6 26.6 25.2 32.8 2.1

9.5 8.8 5.8 3.7 8.8 6 28.7 26.5 34.4 4.8

9.9 4.7 6.1 3.9 8.9 1.7 29.8 26.7 34.9 1.4

10.5 6 6.4 4.1 9.2 3.2 31.3 27.3 36.1 3.3

11.2 5.8 6.7 4.4 9.5 3.7 32.7 28 37.5 3.9

11.8 5.5 7 4.7 9.9 3.6 34.1 28.7 38.6 3.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

162.7 2.5 5 -0.2 157.6 2.6 7.2 1.1 24.9 4 3.6 19.1 2.2 4.6 9.6 6.9 2.1 16.1 8.5 16.1 3.5 12.2 -1.5 7.9 -1.2 1.9 0 59.8 1.6

166.6 2.4 5.1 1.1 161.5 2.4 7.3 1.3 25.4 1.9 3.8 19.5 2.1 4.8 5.8 7 0.9 17.6 9.2 16.8 4.5 12.1 -0.5 8.2 3.9 2 6.5 60.2 0.6

165.9 -0.4 4.4 -13 161.5 0 6.9 -4.9 24.1 -4.9 3.7 18.4 2 4.6 -5.1 6.9 -0.5 18.7 6.4 16.8 -0.2 13 7.2 8.1 -1.1 1.9 -6.5 60.3 0.3

164.4 -0.9 4.1 -6.6 160.2 -0.8 7.2 3.5 23.4 -3.1 3.2 18.1 2.1 4 -13.4 7.4 7.4 18.2 -2.7 16.5 -1.8 13.4 3.2 8.1 -0.2 1.9 2.2 60.1 -0.4

165.7 0.8 4.1 -0.6 161.6 0.8 7.7 7.1 23.5 0.5 3 18.5 2 3.8 -3.8 7.7 3 18.2 -0.1 16.7 1.1 13.6 1.6 7.8 -3.7 2 3 60.6 0.8

168.2 1.5 4.2 2 163.9 1.5 8.3 8.6 24.6 4.4 3.3 19.1 2.1 4 4.6 7.6 -0.7 18.2 -0.2 16.4 -1.7 14.4 6.1 8 2.8 1.9 -3.3 60.5 -0.2

172.8 2.8 4.2 0.8 168.6 2.8 9.4 12.4 25.4 3.4 3.6 19.3 2.5 4.1 1.9 8 4.8 19.2 5.6 16.8 2.7 15.6 8.3 8 -0.6 1.9 0 60.2 -0.5

176.9 2.4 4.4 3.3 172.6 2.4 10 6.8 26 2.3 3.7 19.8 2.4 3.9 -4.5 8.3 4.1 20.1 5 17.3 2.6 16 2.1 8.4 5.7 1.9 -1.7 60.6 0.8

179 1.2 4.4 0.3 174.6 1.2 9.7 -2.9 26.9 3.5 3.7 20.7 2.5 3.6 -6.4 8.5 1.7 19.6 -2.6 17.5 1.1 16.5 3.5 8.9 5.3 1.9 1.1 61.5 1.5

181.2 1.2 4.3 -1.4 176.9 1.3 9.5 -2.4 27.5 2.1 3.8 21.1 2.6 3.7 0.9 8.5 0.2 20.4 4 17.7 1.4 16.9 2.1 8.9 0.4 1.9 0.8 62 0.7

10116.3 317.4 1.3 172.9 1.9 2.8 2456 1987 469

10423.7 320.9 1.1 172.5 -0.2 3.2 2902 1994 908

10451.2 322.5 0.5 172.5 0 3.7 2687 1895 791

10525.3 324.5 0.6 171.9 -0.4 4.6 2708 2222 486

10907.3 327.7 1 173.5 0.9 4.3 3907 2464 1443

11459.3 330.6 0.9 173.8 0.2 3.9 3452 2175 1277

12201 333.6 0.9 176.6 1.6 3.2 3750 2812 939

12752.7 337 1 181.6 2.8 2.8 3988 2998 990

12951.6 340.8 1.1 185.3 2 2.9 3030 2268 762

13367.3 344.8 1.2 187.7 1.3 3.1 2895 2104 791

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

123

Ta l l aha s s ee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

12.5 6.1 7.4 5.1 10.3 4 35.8 29.5 40 3.6

13.3 6.4 7.8 5.5 10.7 4.4 37.5 30.3 41.6 3.8

14.1 5.9 8.2 5.9 11.1 3.8 39.2 31.1 43.1 3.7

14.8 5.2 8.5 6.3 11.5 3.1 40.7 31.6 44.7 3.7

15.5 4.7 8.9 6.6 11.8 2.8 42.2 32.1 46.3 3.6

16.3 4.9 9.3 7 12.2 2.9 43.7 32.7 47.9 3.5

17.1 5 9.6 7.4 12.5 3.1 45.5 33.4 49.5 3.4

17.9 5 10 7.9 12.9 3 47.3 34 51.2 3.4

18.8 5.1 10.4 8.4 13.3 3.1 49.2 34.8 52.9 3.4

19.8 5 10.9 8.9 13.7 3 51.3 35.5 54.8 3.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

124

Florida & Metro Forecast

183.8 1.4 4.3 -0.4 179.5 1.5 9.5 0.4 27.9 1.7 3.9 21.4 2.7 3.8 3.1 8.6 1.1 21.3 4.4 18 1.8 17 0.9 9 0.3 1.9 -0.1 62.5 0.8

186.4 1.4 4.3 0.2 182.1 1.4 9.7 2.3 28.2 1 4 21.5 2.8 3.9 2.2 8.7 1.5 22.1 4.1 18.3 1.2 17.2 0.9 9 0.7 2 4 63 0.8

188.7 1.2 4.3 0 184.4 1.2 9.9 1.5 28.4 0.7 4 21.5 2.9 3.9 1.6 8.8 1.2 23.1 4.2 18.6 1.7 17.3 0.8 9.1 1 1.9 -3.3 63.4 0.6

190.3 0.9 4.3 -0.2 186 0.9 9.9 0.2 28.4 0.1 4.1 21.5 2.9 4 1.3 8.8 0.2 23.8 3.3 18.8 1.3 17.4 0.3 9.2 0.8 2 0.5 63.7 0.6

191.5 0.6 4.3 -0.4 187.2 0.6 9.9 -0.3 28.4 0 4.1 21.4 3 4 1.1 8.8 -0.1 24.5 3 18.9 0.6 17.3 -0.3 9.2 0.5 2 0.6 64.1 0.6

192.6 0.6 4.3 -0.2 188.3 0.6 9.9 0.2 28.4 -0.1 4.2 21.3 3 4.1 0.8 8.8 -0.1 25.3 3.2 19 0.5 17.2 -0.6 9.3 0.5 2 0.6 64.4 0.5

193.8 0.6 4.3 0.1 189.5 0.6 10 0.6 28.3 -0.3 4.2 21.1 3.1 4.1 0.9 8.8 0 26.2 3.3 19.1 0.6 17.1 -0.6 9.3 0.7 2 0.6 64.7 0.4

195.1 0.6 4.3 0.3 190.7 0.6 10 0.8 28.2 -0.2 4.3 20.9 3.1 4.1 0.9 8.8 -0.2 27 3.3 19.2 0.5 17 -0.7 9.4 0.8 2 0.5 65 0.4

196.3 0.6 4.3 0.4 192 0.6 10.1 0.7 28.1 -0.4 4.3 20.6 3.2 4.2 0.7 8.7 -0.4 27.9 3.5 19.3 0.7 16.8 -1 9.5 0.8 2 0.5 65.2 0.4

197.5 0.6 4.3 0.2 193.2 0.6 10.1 0.4 28.1 -0.2 4.4 20.5 3.3 4.2 0.4 8.7 0 28.9 3.3 19.5 0.8 16.7 -0.8 9.6 0.6 2 0.6 65.4 0.3

13836.2 349.4 1.3 189.6 1 3.1 3007 2180 827

14305.9 354.3 1.4 191.3 0.9 3.1 2917 2143 774

14723.1 358.9 1.3 193 0.9 3.2 2778 2077 700

15107.2 363.5 1.3 194.4 0.8 3.3 2677 2013 664

15493.1 367.9 1.2 195.7 0.7 3.3 2624 1975 649

15912.1 371.9 1.1 196.8 0.6 3.4 2591 1940 651

16349.5 375.8 1 197.9 0.5 3.4 2581 1912 669

16790.9 379.4 1 198.9 0.5 3.5 2527 1854 673

17245 382.8 0.9 199.8 0.5 3.5 2457 1775 683

17716.5 386 0.8 200.7 0.4 3.5 2392 1699 693

Ta l l aha s s ee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

20.7 4.8 11.3 9.5 14.1 2.8 53.3 36.2 56.6 3.5

21.7 4.8 11.8 10 14.5 2.8 55.4 37 58.6 3.5

22.7 4.7 12.2 10.5 14.9 2.7 57.5 37.6 60.6 3.4

23.8 4.7 12.7 11.1 15.3 2.7 59.8 38.4 62.8 3.5

24.9 4.7 13.3 11.7 15.7 2.7 62.1 39.1 65 3.5

26.1 4.7 13.8 12.3 16.1 2.7 64.5 39.8 67.2 3.5

27.3 4.7 14.4 12.9 16.5 2.6 67.1 40.6 69.6 3.5

28.6 4.7 15 13.6 17 2.6 69.7 41.3 72.1 3.6

29.9 4.6 15.7 14.3 17.4 2.5 72.3 42.1 74.6 3.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

198.6 0.5 4.3 -0.2 194.2 0.6 10.1 -0.3 28 -0.1 4.5 20.3 3.3 4.2 0.4 8.8 0.2 29.7 2.8 19.7 0.8 16.6 -0.6 9.6 0.7 2 0.8 65.6 0.2

199.9 0.7 4.3 -0.3 195.6 0.7 10.1 -0.1 28 0.1 4.6 20.2 3.3 4.2 0.6 8.8 0.4 30.5 2.9 19.8 0.9 16.5 -0.4 9.7 0.9 2.1 3.7 65.7 0.2

201.1 0.6 4.3 -0.2 196.8 0.6 10.1 0.2 28.1 0.3 4.6 20.2 3.4 4.3 1 8.8 0.3 31.4 2.7 20 1 16.5 -0.3 9.8 1.1 2.1 -2.7 65.8 0.1

202.5 0.7 4.3 -0.5 198.2 0.7 10.2 0.3 28.2 0.3 4.7 20.2 3.4 4.3 1 8.8 0.4 32.2 2.8 20.2 1 16.4 -0.4 9.9 1.1 2.1 0.5 65.8 0.1

203.8 0.7 4.3 -0.5 199.5 0.7 10.2 0.5 28.3 0.3 4.8 20.1 3.5 4.4 1.1 8.9 0.3 33.1 2.7 20.4 0.9 16.3 -0.4 10 1.2 2.1 0.5 65.9 0.1

205.2 0.7 4.2 -0.4 200.9 0.7 10.3 0.7 28.4 0.3 4.9 20.1 3.5 4.4 1 8.9 0.3 34.1 2.8 20.6 0.8 16.2 -0.5 10.1 1.1 2.1 0.5 65.9 0.1

206.5 0.7 4.2 -0.3 202.3 0.7 10.4 1.1 28.4 0.3 5 20 3.6 4.5 1 8.9 0.4 34.9 2.5 20.7 0.6 16.2 -0.4 10.2 1 2.1 0.5 66 0.1

207.9 0.6 4.2 -0.1 203.6 0.7 10.6 1.6 28.5 0.3 5 20 3.6 4.5 1.1 9 0.4 35.7 2.2 20.8 0.6 16.1 -0.3 10.4 1.1 2.1 0.5 66 0

209.1 0.6 4.2 -0.1 204.9 0.6 10.7 1.4 28.7 0.4 5.1 20 3.7 4.6 1.2 9 0.3 36.3 1.7 20.9 0.6 16.1 -0.2 10.5 1.2 2.1 0.5 66.1 0.1

18184.6 389.2 0.8 201.5 0.4 3.5 2337 1638 699

18673.8 392.3 0.8 202.7 0.6 3.5 2288 1576 712

19150.9 395.4 0.8 204 0.6 3.6 2233 1512 721

19646.3 398.6 0.8 205.3 0.6 3.6 2194 1456 738

20143.4 401.6 0.8 206.5 0.6 3.6 2157 1399 759

20659.9 404.7 0.8 207.8 0.6 3.7 2145 1370 775

21199.4 407.8 0.8 209.1 0.6 3.7 2151 1360 791

21734.5 410.8 0.7 210.4 0.6 3.7 2152 1335 817

22252.4 413.9 0.7 211.8 0.7 3.8 2116 1279 837

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

125

Ta l l aha s s ee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

31.3 4.5 16.3 15 17.8 2.4 75 42.7 77.2 3.4

32.7 4.4 16.9 15.7 18.2 2.3 77.8 43.4 79.8 3.4

34.1 4.5 17.6 16.5 18.7 2.4 80.7 44.1 82.6 3.4

35.6 4.4 18.3 17.3 19.1 2.3 83.7 44.9 85.3 3.3

37.2 4.4 19.1 18.1 19.5 2.3 86.9 45.6 88.1 3.4

38.8 4.3 19.8 19 20 2.3 90.1 46.4 91 3.2

40.5 4.4 20.6 19.9 20.4 2.3 93.5 47.1 94 3.3

42.3 4.4 21.4 20.9 20.9 2.3 97.1 48 97.1 3.3

44.2 4.5 22.3 21.9 21.4 2.3 100.9 48.8 100.4 3.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

126

Florida & Metro Forecast

210.3 0.5 4.2 -0.2 206 0.6 10.8 1.3 28.8 0.5 5.2 20 3.8 4.6 1.3 9 0.2 36.8 1.5 21 0.6 16 -0.2 10.6 1.2 2.1 0.5 66.1 0

211.4 0.6 4.2 -0.4 207.2 0.6 11 1.3 29 0.5 5.3 20 3.8 4.7 1.2 9 0.3 37.4 1.6 21.2 0.5 16 -0.1 10.7 1.1 2.1 0.5 66.1 0

212.7 0.6 4.2 -0.3 208.5 0.6 11.2 1.8 29 0.3 5.3 20 3.8 4.7 1.3 9.1 0.5 38.1 1.8 21.3 0.5 16 -0.4 10.8 1 2.2 3.6 66.1 0

214.2 0.7 4.2 0 210 0.7 11.4 2.2 29.2 0.4 5.4 20 3.9 4.8 1.5 9.1 0.5 38.9 2 21.4 0.5 15.9 -0.2 11 1.1 2.2 -2.2 66.1 0

215.6 0.7 4.2 0 211.4 0.7 11.7 2 29.3 0.4 5.5 20 3.9 4.9 1.7 9.2 0.4 39.7 2 21.5 0.6 15.9 -0.3 11.1 1.2 2.2 0.5 66.1 0

217.2 0.7 4.2 -0.1 213 0.7 11.9 1.7 29.4 0.4 5.6 20 3.9 5 1.7 9.2 0.5 40.5 2.2 21.6 0.5 15.9 -0.2 11.2 1.1 2.2 0.5 66.1 0

218.7 0.7 4.2 -0.1 214.5 0.7 12.1 1.8 29.5 0.2 5.6 20 4 5.1 1.7 9.3 0.5 41.5 2.5 21.7 0.4 15.8 -0.5 11.3 1 2.2 0.5 66.1 0

220.2 0.7 4.2 0 216 0.7 12.3 1.5 29.5 0.2 5.7 20 4 5.1 1.6 9.3 0.4 42.5 2.4 21.8 0.2 15.7 -0.4 11.4 1 2.2 0.5 66.1 0

221.6 0.7 4.2 0.1 217.5 0.7 12.5 1.5 29.5 0 5.7 19.9 4 5.2 1.6 9.3 0.4 43.6 2.6 21.8 0.2 15.6 -0.6 11.5 1 2.2 0.5 66.1 0

22765.8 416.9 0.7 213.2 0.7 3.8 2054 1206 849

23298.5 419.9 0.7 214.6 0.7 3.8 2018 1161 857

23864.4 422.8 0.7 216.1 0.7 3.8 2005 1141 864

24430.1 425.5 0.6 217.5 0.7 3.9 1978 1107 871

24999.8 428.2 0.6 218.9 0.7 3.9 1913 1042 871

25595.4 430.8 0.6 220.4 0.7 3.9 1867 999 868

26229.9 433.3 0.6 221.8 0.7 3.9 1839 976 863

26878.4 435.7 0.6 223.3 0.7 4 1812 957 854

27551.1 438.1 0.5 224.7 0.6 4 1785 940 845

Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r wa t e r

P r o fi l e s The Tampa – St. Petersburg – Clearwater MSA is comprised of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas counties. Located centrally on the west coast of Florida, this region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge Docks, Ybor City, Bush Gardens, the University of South Florida, and the University of Tampa. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Devil Rays also call this region home.

Quick Facts: • MSA population estimate of 2,697,731 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hernando County population estimate of 165,409 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hillsborough County population estimate of 1,157,738 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Pasco County population estimate of 450,171 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Pinellas County population estimate of 924,413 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 1,352,600 in December 2006 for the entire region (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 40,586 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Hillsborough County School District 25,487 employees • Verizon Communications - 14,000 employees • MacDill Air Force Base - 12,000 employees • University of South Florida - 11,607 employees

• Hillsborough County Government -10,886 employees • Tampa International Airport - 7,760 employees • James A. Haley Veterans Hospital - 5,900 employees • St Joseph’s Hospital - 5,242 employees • JP Morgan Chase - 5,237 employees • Verizon Information Technologies - 5,000 employees Source: Greater Tampa Chamber of Commerce

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s The Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metropolitan statistical area is anticipated to experience an average personal income growth of 6.6% quarterly over the next three years.

Once again, professional and business services will grow by the largest quarterly percentage, averaging 5.2%. Education and health services are also expected to experience moderate growth at 2%.

The region is one of only five metropolitan statistical areas in the state projected to experience positive growth in housing starts over the three-year forecast period, and it ranks second in the state in gross metropolitan product.

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Regional transportation breakthrough • The Florida legislature has officially approved a bill that will create the Tampa Bay Area Regional Transportation Authority, a seven-county transportation authority.

• Within its power is the ability to deal with the following transportation mechanisms: trains, express bus routes, toll roads, and ferries. The authority can also develop property.

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• Now that the authority has been given its powers, it will need to fund their operations with a few sources, one of which is local taxpayer dollars. That means that if they want local taxpayer dollars, instead of resorting to other forms of financing like bonds and partnerships, they will have to get local approval of their projects.

Source: Tampa Tribune, May 5, 2007 Airport director to speak on 20-year expansion plan • Titled Skyward 2025, the Tampa International Airport is planning a 20-year expansion of its airport, priced at $2.5 billion.

• Some of the expected developments include a new runway, a new terminal complex, expanded parking, an expanded fueling system, and a new security badge system.

• This expansion is spurred by expected economic growth, a 19 percent increase in the Tampa Bay area population, as well as a doubling in airport traffic by the year 2025.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, May 3, 2007 Bayfront’s heart center to include medical spa, retail • As one of the steps to upgrade hospitals in the Tampa Bay area, the Bayfront Medical Center will be opening its $40 million, 35,000-squarefoot Bayfront Heart Center near its hospital around September 1, 2007.

• The heart center will lie on the second floor of a four-story office building owned by Optimal Outcomes LLC, with the first floor containing a health institute, a medical spa, and retailers, and the third and fourth floors containing physician offices.

• The Bayfront Medical Center will be connected to the heart facility by a 270-foot-long skywalk, so in case of emergencies at the heart center, patients can be immediately taken to the hospital.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, May 11, 2007

128

Florida & Metro Forecast

Tampa high-rise pioneers to plant seeds of urban chic • Novare and Intown, two condo developers, have begun to spur a condo boom in downtown Tampa Bay. • Both companies are responsible for the $80 million condominium Skypoint, currently the tallest high rise in downtown Tampa at 32 stories, the Element, a 34 story condominium which recently started construction, as well as Twelve, a proposed 47 story condominium.

Source: St. Petersburg Times, March 19, 2007

Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r wa t e r Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

0.3

Florida & Tampa Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

(percent)

0.6

1.5

300000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

250000.0 200000.0 150000.0 100000.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 FL Unemployment Rate Tampa Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

2200.0 2000.0 1800.0 1600.0 1400.0 1200.0 1000.0

1.2

Tampa Real Gross Metro Product

50000.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Tampa Payroll Employment

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Gross Metro Product

Tampa Real Personal Income

Tampa Payroll Employment 2400.0

0.9

7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0%

(percent change year ago)

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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Quarterly Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast* 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

99 6.1 53.9 45.2 84.9 4.3 36 30.8 40.4 4.2

100.4 5.9 54.5 45.9 85.8 4.2 36.3 31 40.7 4.3

101.9 6 55.1 46.8 86.7 3.8 36.6 31.2 41 3.7

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1322.1 1.2 74.9 -1.9 1247.2 1.4 88.3 -2.1 234.9 0.8 52.4 152.3 30.2 33.2 1.1 103.9 1.2 307.5 1.5 158.1 2.5 121.5 2.5 49.4 5.3 20.8 -1.9 129.7 1.9

105.2 6.2 56.7 48.6 88.7 4.5 37.5 31.6 41.6 3.2

107.1 6.7 57.6 49.5 89.8 4.7 38 31.8 42 3.2

109 7 58.6 50.5 91 4.9 38.4 32.1 42.4 3.3

110.9 7.2 59.5 51.4 92 5 38.9 32.3 42.7 3.4

112.9 7.3 60.5 52.4 93.2 5.1 39.5 32.6 43.1 3.5

114.9 7.3 61.6 53.4 94.4 5.1 40 32.9 43.5 3.6

117 7.3 62.6 54.4 95.7 5.2 40.5 33.1 43.9 3.7

1332.4 1.3 74 -1.6 1258.4 1.5 87.2 -1.7 236.9 1.7 52.8 153.5 30.6 32.6 -0.9 104.3 1.6 314.2 2.6 159.4 1.2 122.4 1.6 49.6 1.5 21.1 0.9 130.8 1.6

1339.4 1.7 73.8 -1.8 1265.7 1.9 87 -2.6 238.8 2 53 155 30.8 32.5 -2.3 104.7 1.4 317.6 4 159.8 1.7 123.5 2.3 49.6 0.9 21.1 2 131.1 1.4

1348.5 2 73.5 -1.8 1275 2.2 87 -1.5 240.3 2.3 53.3 156.1 31 32.7 -1.5 105.2 1.3 322.5 4.9 160.6 1.6 124.4 2.3 49.6 0.6 21.2 2 131.5 1.4

1360 2.5 73.3 -1.4 1286.6 2.7 87.4 -0.2 241.8 2.7 53.6 157 31.2 32.9 -0.3 105.8 1.5 330 6.1 161.8 1.9 124.1 2.1 49.7 0.2 21.2 1.2 132 1.3

1370.8 2.9 73.2 -1.1 1297.6 3.1 87.5 0.4 243.3 2.7 53.9 158.1 31.4 33 1.4 106.3 1.9 336.5 7.1 162.7 2.1 124.7 2 49.7 0.2 21.2 0.5 132.5 1.3

1381.4 3.1 73.1 -0.9 1308.3 3.4 88.2 1.4 244.3 2.3 54.1 158.6 31.7 33.2 2 106.9 2 342.8 7.9 163.6 2.4 125.4 1.6 49.8 0.3 21.1 0 133 1.5

1392.5 3.3 73.1 -0.5 1319.4 3.5 89 2.3 245.6 2.2 54.4 159.4 31.9 33.3 1.8 107.3 2 349.7 8.4 164.4 2.3 125.7 1.1 49.8 0.2 21.2 -0.2 133.6 1.6

1403.3 3.2 73 -0.4 1330.3 3.4 89.9 2.9 246.6 2 54.7 159.8 32.1 33.4 1.7 108 2.1 356.4 8 165 2 125.8 1.4 49.8 0.2 21.3 0.3 134.2 1.7

1413.3 3.1 73 -0.2 1340.3 3.3 90.8 3.7 247.6 1.8 55 160.4 32.4 33.5 1.5 108.6 2.1 361.9 7.6 165.3 1.6 126.4 1.3 49.9 0.3 21.5 1.5 134.8 1.7

110052 111482.7 112605.6 113975.4 2822.2 2835.7 2848.4 2861 2 2 1.9 1.9 1387.7 1394.5 1401 1407.4 2 2 2 1.9 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 19859 20373 20964 21400 14742 15181 15690 16123 5116 5192 5275 5277

115299 2873.4 1.8 1413.4 1.8 3.5 21810 16505 5305

116600.7 2885.7 1.8 1419.2 1.8 3.5 22159 16890 5269

104519.3 105360.5 106263.8 107309.6 108648.3 2753.3 2767.1 2780.8 2794.7 2808.6 2.1 2.1 2 2 2 1353 1360.1 1367.2 1374 1380.9 2.4 1.9 1.7 2 2.1 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 16558 17301 18107 18786 19294 13260 13409 13670 14056 14380 3298 3893 4437 4729 4913

*Quarterly at an annual rate

130

1326.7 1 74.4 -2 1252.3 1.2 87.6 -1.9 235.4 0.7 52.6 152.5 30.4 33 0.6 104.2 1.3 311 1.3 158.8 2.7 121.5 1.4 49.6 4 21 -0.3 130.2 1.5

Florida & Metro Forecast

2009Q4

103.5 5.9 55.8 47.6 87.6 3.9 37 31.3 41.3 2.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

2009Q3

Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r wa t e r

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

63.7 5.1 35.4 28.4 65.3 3.4 26.8 27.5 30.9 5.5

68.9 8.1 38.5 30.4 68.9 5.5 28.6 28.6 32.2 4.1

71.7 4.1 40.2 31.5 70.2 2 29.3 28.7 33.7 4.6

74.2 3.4 41.4 32.8 71.6 2 29.8 28.7 34.8 3.5

76.5 3.1 41.9 34.6 72.4 1.1 30.2 28.6 35.1 0.7

82.7 8.1 44.9 37.8 76.3 5.3 31.9 29.4 36 2.7

88 6.4 48.1 39.9 78.9 3.4 33.2 29.8 37.2 3.2

94.1 7 51.5 42.6 82.2 4.1 34.8 30.4 39 5

99.8 6 54.2 45.5 85.4 4 36.1 31 40.6 3.9

106.2 6.5 57.2 49 89.3 4.5 37.7 31.7 41.8 3.1

1281.6 3.6 75.3 0.9 1206.3 3.8 84.4 12.2 230.5 3.3 51.1 148 31.4 32.7 -0.6 98.7 4.2 294.6 6 151.9 1.6 117 3.5 48.4 0.5 20.8 4.2 127.2 0

1308 2.1 76.1 1 1232 2.1 89.4 5.9 233.3 1.2 52.1 150.5 30.7 32.9 0.5 102.6 3.9 303.4 3 155 2.1 119.2 1.9 47.3 -2.3 21 1.2 127.9 0.5

1324.6 1.3 74.6 -1.9 1250 1.5 88.1 -1.4 235.3 0.9 52.5 152.5 30.3 33 0.5 103.9 1.3 309.5 2 158.3 2.1 121.5 2 49.4 4.4 20.9 -0.6 130 1.6

1354.7 2.3 73.5 -1.5 1281.2 2.5 87.2 -1 241.1 2.4 53.5 156.6 31.1 32.8 -0.7 105.5 1.5 326.7 5.5 161.2 1.9 124.2 2.2 49.7 0.5 21.2 1.4 131.8 1.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1132.3 2.7 84.9 2.8 1047.4 2.6 60.4 -0.1 228.8 0.6 51.7 141.6 35.5 37.8 9 87.3 6.4 216.8 8.8 136.1 -0.7 102.1 -1 42.9 2.1 18.4 0.9 116.7 0.6

1185.1 4.7 87.5 3 1097.6 4.8 64 5.9 237.4 3.7 54.2 146.5 36.7 39.7 5 90.9 4 236.9 9.3 137 0.7 105.2 3 43.9 2.4 19.1 3.9 123.5 5.9

1182 -0.3 82.2 -6 1099.9 0.2 63.8 -0.3 228.7 -3.7 52.9 141.9 33.9 38.9 -2 91.6 0.8 241.2 1.8 137.2 0.1 107.7 2.4 44.4 1.1 18.8 -1.4 127.6 3.3

1176.1 -0.5 78 -5.1 1098.1 -0.2 65.7 3 224.6 -1.8 51.6 140.9 32.1 35.8 -7.9 91.8 0.3 237.5 -1.5 140.2 2.2 109 1.2 47 5.7 19 0.7 127.7 0.1

1183.5 0.6 74 -5.1 1109.5 1 68.2 3.7 218.2 -2.8 48.7 138.8 30.7 34.6 -3.5 93.2 1.5 248.1 4.5 144.8 3.3 109.5 0.4 46.9 -0.1 19.5 2.8 126.7 -0.8

1236.5 4.5 74.6 0.8 1161.9 4.7 75.2 10.4 223.1 2.3 49.2 142.3 31.7 32.9 -4.8 94.8 1.7 278 12.1 149.5 3.2 113.1 3.3 48.2 2.7 19.9 2.2 127.2 0.4

75087.9 2373.9 1.4 1254.9 2.6 2.9 22956 13900 9056

78702.9 2409.6 1.5 1200 -4.4 3.4 19963 13762 6200

79840 2449.3 1.6 1210.6 0.9 4.3 22017 16523 5494

81482.6 2491.7 1.7 1217.6 0.6 5.6 24099 18391 5708

84483.6 2535.7 1.8 1226.1 0.7 5.3 27937 20354 7583

90618.2 2592.2 2.2 1260.4 2.8 4.5 27850 22502 5348

97458.2 102494.7 104985.5 109373.2 2652.2 2704.7 2760.1 2815.3 2.3 2 2 2 1295.2 1327.2 1356.8 1384.3 2.8 2.5 2.2 2 3.8 3.3 3.5 3.5 33212 24209 16482 19578 28048 20867 12720 14590 5164 3342 3762 4988

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Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r wa t e r

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

113.9 7.3 61.1 52.9 93.8 5.1 39.7 32.7 43.3 3.5

122.1 7.2 65.1 57 98.7 5.1 41.8 33.8 45 3.8

129.8 6.3 68.8 61 102.8 4.2 43.6 34.6 46.6 3.6

137.2 5.7 72.4 64.8 106.6 3.7 45.3 35.2 48.3 3.6

144.9 5.6 76.1 68.8 110.4 3.6 47 35.9 49.9 3.5

153.1 5.7 80 73.1 114.5 3.7 48.9 36.6 51.6 3.4

161.8 5.7 84.1 77.7 118.7 3.7 50.9 37.3 53.4 3.4

170.9 5.6 88.3 82.6 123.1 3.6 52.9 38.1 55.2 3.3

180.5 5.7 92.7 87.8 127.5 3.6 55.1 38.9 57 3.3

190.9 5.7 97.4 93.5 132.2 3.7 57.3 39.7 58.9 3.4

1489.5 1.7 72.5 -0.4 1417 1.8 96.9 1.5 256.2 1 58.1 163.8 34.5 35.1 1.8 112.3 0.7 405.1 3.6 168.5 1 130.6 0.8 51.4 1 21.8 0.9 139 1.2

1513 1.6 72.1 -0.6 1440.9 1.7 97.8 1 258.4 0.8 59 164.4 35.2 35.7 1.6 112.8 0.4 420.5 3.8 170.3 1.1 131.1 0.4 51.8 0.8 22 0.8 140.5 1.1

1538.5 1.7 71.7 -0.5 1466.7 1.8 99.3 1.5 260.5 0.8 60 164.7 35.9 36.1 1.2 113.3 0.4 438 4.2 171.8 0.9 131.4 0.2 52.2 0.7 22.2 0.9 141.9 1

1564 1.7 71.5 -0.3 1492.5 1.8 101.2 2 262.3 0.7 61.2 164.6 36.7 36.5 1.1 113.9 0.5 455.5 4 173.3 0.9 131.4 0.1 52.7 0.9 22.3 0.8 143.2 0.9

1589.3 1.6 71.4 -0.1 1517.9 1.7 103.5 2.2 264.1 0.7 62.5 164.2 37.6 37 1.2 114.3 0.4 473 3.8 174.4 0.6 131.4 0 53.2 1 22.5 0.7 144.5 0.9

1615.3 1.6 71.4 0 1543.9 1.7 105.6 2.1 266 0.7 63.8 163.7 38.6 37.4 1.1 114.4 0.1 491.2 3.9 175.8 0.8 131.2 -0.2 53.8 1.1 22.7 0.8 145.9 0.9

1641.7 1.6 71.2 -0.2 1570.4 1.7 107.4 1.7 267.9 0.7 65.3 163.6 39.1 37.7 1 115.1 0.5 509.8 3.8 177.4 0.9 131 -0.1 54.2 0.9 22.9 0.8 147.1 0.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

132

Florida & Metro Forecast

1397.7 3.2 73.1 -0.5 1324.6 3.4 89.5 2.6 246 2.1 54.6 159.6 32 33.4 1.7 107.7 2.1 352.7 8 164.6 2.1 125.8 1.3 49.8 0.3 21.3 0.4 133.9 1.6

1436.8 2.8 73 -0.1 1363.8 3 92.8 3.8 250 1.6 55.8 161.4 32.9 33.9 1.5 109.9 2.1 375.3 6.4 166.2 1 127.8 1.5 50.2 0.7 22 3.6 135.8 1.4

1465.1 2 72.8 -0.3 1392.2 2.1 95.5 2.8 253.6 1.5 57.1 162.9 33.8 34.5 1.9 111.5 1.5 390.9 4.2 166.8 0.4 129.5 1.4 50.9 1.4 21.6 -1.9 137.4 1.2

114620.2 119681.1 124075.5 2867.1 2918.7 2974.3 1.8 1.8 1.9 1410.3 1432.9 1452.8 1.9 1.6 1.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 21584 22133 21854 16302 17038 17006 5282 5095 4848

128436 132984.6 137934.7 143033.1 148219.9 153628.2 159300.3 3027.6 3078.9 3129.2 3179.2 3228.5 3278.6 3328.2 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1472.3 1490.4 1507.4 1524.3 1540.2 1554.7 1568.7 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1 0.9 0.9 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 21672 21736 21943 22253 22398 22353 22300 16788 16854 17031 17285 17268 17023 16774 4884 4881 4912 4968 5130 5330 5526

Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r wa t e r

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

201.6 5.6 102.3 99.3 137 3.6 59.7 40.6 61 3.5

212.9 5.6 107.6 105.3 142 3.6 62.2 41.5 63.1 3.5

224.4 5.4 113 111.4 146.9 3.5 64.7 42.4 65.3 3.4

236.8 5.5 119 117.8 152 3.5 67.4 43.3 67.6 3.5

249.9 5.6 125.3 124.6 157.4 3.5 70.2 44.2 70 3.6

263.8 5.6 132.1 131.7 162.9 3.5 73.1 45.2 72.5 3.6

278.5 5.6 139.3 139.2 168.6 3.5 76.2 46.1 75.2 3.7

293.9 5.5 146.6 147.2 174.3 3.4 79.4 47.1 77.9 3.7

309.6 5.4 154.1 155.6 180 3.3 82.6 48 80.7 3.6

1750 1.7 69.5 -0.6 1680.5 1.8 113.4 1.7 277.6 1.1 71.2 165.4 41 39.4 1.4 119.4 1 581.5 3.3 185.7 1.2 132.3 0.3 56.6 1.3 23.6 0.8 150.9 0.6

1780.2 1.7 69.1 -0.6 1711.1 1.8 115.5 1.9 280.6 1.1 72.7 166.2 41.7 40 1.5 120.6 1 600.9 3.3 187.9 1.2 132.7 0.3 57.4 1.4 23.8 0.8 151.8 0.6

1811.6 1.8 68.7 -0.6 1742.9 1.9 117.9 2.1 283.6 1.1 74.3 167 42.3 40.6 1.5 121.8 1 621.5 3.4 189.9 1.1 132.9 0.2 58.1 1.3 23.9 0.8 152.7 0.6

1841.9 1.7 68.3 -0.6 1773.7 1.8 120.8 2.4 286.5 1 75.9 167.6 43 41.2 1.5 123.1 1.1 640.8 3.1 191.5 0.9 133.2 0.2 58.8 1.2 24.1 0.8 153.7 0.6

1871.1 1.6 67.9 -0.5 1803.2 1.7 124.1 2.7 289.4 1 77.4 168.3 43.7 41.8 1.6 124.6 1.2 658.2 2.7 193 0.8 133.7 0.4 59.6 1.3 24.3 0.8 154.6 0.6

1898.3 1.5 67.6 -0.5 1830.7 1.5 127.4 2.7 292.6 1.1 78.8 169.3 44.5 42.6 1.7 125.9 1.1 673 2.3 194.6 0.8 134.2 0.4 60.4 1.4 24.5 0.8 155.5 0.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1666.9 1.5 70.9 -0.5 1596.1 1.6 108.5 1 269.7 0.7 66.8 163.7 39.4 38 0.8 116 0.8 527.5 3.5 179.3 1.1 131.2 0.1 54.7 0.8 23.1 1 148.1 0.7

1694.1 1.6 70.4 -0.6 1623.7 1.7 109.9 1.3 272 0.8 68.3 164.1 39.8 38.3 0.9 117.1 0.9 545.3 3.4 181.2 1.1 131.6 0.3 55.2 1 23.8 3.2 149.1 0.7

1720.8 1.6 70 -0.6 1650.8 1.7 111.6 1.5 274.7 1 69.7 164.7 40.4 38.9 1.3 118.3 1 562.6 3.2 183.6 1.3 131.9 0.3 55.9 1.2 23.4 -1.8 150 0.6

164983 170867.3 176774.2 182989.1 189368.3 196043.6 203020.2 3374.5 3420.5 3467.1 3513.8 3560.1 3606.5 3653.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1583.6 1601.4 1620.4 1639.7 1658.7 1678 1697.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 22264 22196 22017 21930 21814 21920 22213 16552 16323 16052 15824 15582 15583 15789 5712 5874 5964 6106 6232 6336 6424

210011 216896.1 3700.6 3748.6 1.3 1.3 1717.7 1738.2 1.2 1.2 3.7 3.7 22398 22231 15826 15507 6572 6725

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

133

Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r wa t e r

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

June 2007 Long-Term Forecast Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

325.8 5.2 161.7 164.2 185.6 3.1 85.8 48.9 83.6 3.5

342.7 5.2 169.6 173.1 191.3 3.1 89.1 49.8 86.5 3.5

360.9 5.3 178.2 182.7 197.4 3.1 92.7 50.7 89.5 3.5

379.8 5.3 187.2 192.7 203.5 3.1 96.3 51.6 92.5 3.4

399.8 5.3 196.7 203.1 209.9 3.1 100.1 52.6 95.7 3.4

420.7 5.2 206.7 214 216.5 3.1 104.1 53.6 98.9 3.4

443.1 5.3 217.6 225.5 223.4 3.2 108.4 54.6 102.3 3.4

466.8 5.3 228.9 237.9 230.5 3.2 112.8 55.7 105.8 3.4

492.4 5.5 241.3 251.1 238.1 3.3 117.6 56.9 109.6 3.6

2012.7 1.6 65.9 -0.4 1946.8 1.7 142.7 3.5 305.6 1.1 84.7 173.9 46.7 45.7 2 131.8 1.3 735.8 2.6 200.8 0.8 136.7 0.5 63.6 1.3 25.3 -2 158.8 0.5

2045.7 1.6 65.6 -0.4 1980.1 1.7 147.4 3.3 308.8 1 86.2 175.2 47.1 46.7 2.2 133.4 1.2 754.7 2.6 202.5 0.9 137.2 0.3 64.5 1.4 25.5 0.8 159.6 0.5

2080.7 1.7 65.3 -0.5 2015.4 1.8 151.8 3 311.9 1 87.5 176.6 47.4 47.8 2.2 135.1 1.3 775.5 2.8 204.1 0.8 137.9 0.5 65.3 1.3 25.7 0.8 160.4 0.5

2117.7 1.8 65 -0.5 2052.7 1.9 156.3 3 314.6 0.9 88.8 177.7 47.6 48.8 2.2 136.8 1.3 799.3 3.1 205.4 0.7 138.2 0.2 66.1 1.2 25.9 0.8 161.2 0.5

2154.2 1.7 64.7 -0.4 2089.5 1.8 160.7 2.8 317 0.8 89.8 178.9 47.7 49.8 2.1 138.4 1.2 823.4 3 206.5 0.5 138.6 0.3 66.9 1.2 26.1 0.8 162.1 0.5

2192.2 1.8 64.5 -0.3 2127.7 1.8 165.2 2.8 319 0.6 90.8 179.8 47.7 50.9 2.1 140.1 1.2 849.5 3.2 207.5 0.5 138.7 0.1 67.6 1.2 26.3 0.8 162.9 0.5

238832 246749.6 254831.5 263337.1 272454.7 281891.5 3894.5 3943.2 3991.8 4040.4 4089.1 4137.8 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1802.1 1824 1846.2 1868.7 1891.5 1914.7 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 21828 21813 21449 21295 21343 21397 14895 14814 14421 14253 14292 14373 6934 7000 7028 7043 7050 7024

291796 4186.4 1.2 1938 1.2 3.9 21464 14468 6996

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

134

Florida & Metro Forecast

1924 1.4 67.2 -0.6 1856.9 1.4 130.6 2.5 296.1 1.2 80.2 170.4 45.4 43.3 1.7 127.2 1 686.6 2 196.2 0.8 134.8 0.4 61.2 1.4 24.7 0.8 156.3 0.5

1950.8 1.4 66.6 -0.8 1884.2 1.5 133.9 2.6 299.4 1.1 81.6 171.7 46 44.1 1.7 128.6 1.1 700.9 2.1 197.7 0.8 135.6 0.6 62 1.3 24.9 0.8 157.1 0.5

223825.7 231078.1 3797.2 3845.9 1.3 1.3 1759.1 1780.5 1.2 1.2 3.7 3.8 21839 21701 15025 14828 6814 6873

1980.5 1.5 66.2 -0.7 1914.3 1.6 137.9 3 302.3 1 83.2 172.6 46.3 44.8 1.8 130.2 1.2 717.3 2.3 199.2 0.7 136 0.3 62.8 1.2 25.8 3.8 157.9 0.5

Director, Institute for Economic Competitiveness.

Ph.D., Pennsylvania State University 1996; M.A., Pennsylvania State University 1994; B.S., Allegheny College 1989.

Sea n M . S n ait h , P h . D .

Sean Snaith is Director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness in the College of Business Administration at the University of Central Florida.

Dr. Snaith received his B.S. in Economics from Allegheny College and his M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from Pennsylvania State University. He has taught at Penn State, the American University in Cairo, the University of North Dakota and the University of the Pacific. While at the University of North Dakota, he served as the Director of the Bureau of Business and Economic Research and as Director of the Business Forecasting Center at the University of the Pacific.

Snaith also served with International Planning and Research, a Boston area consulting firm, where his work included forecasting, market sizing, economic analyses, and econometric modeling for a variety of clients including IBM, Dell, Compaq, and HewlettPackard.

We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness:

Snaith is a director of the Association of University Business of Economic Research, a member of the National Association of Business Economics, and the American Economics Association. He is also a member of the Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast Panel, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Survey of Professional Forecasters, Livingston Survey, Bloomberg U.S. Economic Indicator Survey and USA Today’s Quarterly Survey of Top Economists. He is frequently quoted in the media and has published articles on a variety of topics including exchange rate modeling, predicting educational outcomes, the economics of information technology, and telemedicine.

For more information Sean Snaith, Director Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida P.O. Box 161400 Orlando, FL 32816 PH: 407.823.1451 FAX: 407.823.1454 EMAIL: ssnaith@bus.ucf.edu www.iec.ucf.edu

U n i v e r s it y o f C e n t r al F l o r ida College of Business Administration Institute for Economic Competitiveness P. O . B o x 1 6 1 4 0 0 , O r l a n d o , F l o r i d a 3 2 8 1 6 PH 407.823.1453

FAX 407.823.1454

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