Florida & Metro Forecast March 2007

Florida & Metro Forecast March 2007

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

Message From D ea n T h o ma s L . K e o n

A b o ut U n i v e r s it y o f C e n t r al F l o r ida ( U C F ) T h e Un i ve r s i t y o f C e n t r a l Fl o r i d a i s

Welcome to the first comprehensive Florida & Metro Forecast for 2007! This is the only independent forecast that covers Florida and reports the short-term economic outlook for 12 metro areas located throughout the state.

a public, multi-campus, metropolitan r e s e a r c h u n i v e r s i t y, d e d i c a t e d t o serving its surrounding communities with their diverse and expanding populations, technological corridors, and international partners. The mission of the university is to offer high-quality undergraduate and graduate education, student development, and continuing education; to conduct research and creative activities; and to provide services that enhance the intellectual, cultural, environmental, and economic development of the metropolitan region, address national and international issues in key areas, establish UCF as a major presence, and contribute to the global c o m m u n i t y.

A b o ut t h e C o lle g e o f B u s i n e s s A dmi n i s t r ati o n The College of Business Administration

This publication is built upon the foundation of our nationally recognized U.S. Forecast which also is produced each quarter by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness. We began distributing these forecasts last quarter, and have received tremendous feedback from both the national and local academic and business communities. As such, a new slogan has been adopted for the forecasts: Nationally recognized. Locally Focused.

Each quarter, the Institute will continue to conduct valuable economic research that benefits Florida as well as the rest of the nation. I am proud of the research being conducted by both the Institute as well as the UCF College of Business Administration.

Our faculty and students are involved in a variety of business-related research projects and many faculty members ser ve as editors and contributors of major academic journals.

a d v a n c e s t h e u n i v e r s i t y ’s m i s s i o n and goals in providing intellectual leadership through research, teaching, and service. The college is striving to enhance graduate programs, while maintaining the strong undergraduate base. The college delivers research and quality business education programs at the undergraduate, masters, doctoral, and executive levels to citizens of the state of Florida and to select clientele n a t i o n a l l y a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y.

Please take a moment to read this Florida & Metro Forecast. It’s a fine example of our research efforts.

omas L . Keon ThThomas L. Keon Sincerely,

Dean

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

F lo r i da F o r eca s t 2006 - 2009 March 2007 Report

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright Š 2007 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved.

Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Fred Tramell, Associate Director Barbie Barontini, Editor Toni Dodich, Research Assistant Elizabeth Bernstein, Research Assistant Jennifer Scott, Research Assistant Joseph Bianco, Research Assistant

This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitiveness’ judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.

TABLE OF CONTENTS Florida Summary................................................. 6-10 Florida Forecast Tables...................................... 12-17

Florida News Summaries....................................... 28 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach.......... 30-34 Gainesville......................................................... 35-39 Jacksonville....................................................... 40-44 Lakeland............................................................ 45-48 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach............... 49-53 Naples-Marco Island......................................... 54-58 Ocala................................................................. 59-63 Orlando-Kissimmee.......................................... 64-68 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville......................... 69-73 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent.............................. 74-78 Tallahassee........................................................ 79-83 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater.................... 84-88 Industry Location Quotient..................................... 89 Definitions.............................................................. 90

Tab l e o f c o n t e n t s

Florida Forecast Charts...................................... 20-27

F l o r i d a Summa r y

K e v l a r E x pa n s i o n K eep s O n C h uggi n g

inflation. This slowing, however, has not been excessive and, together, these occurrences make it increasingly likely that the Fed will continue to stand on the sideline for all of 2007.

After two years of events that many experts predicted Many economists were predicting that there would be would send the economy into recession, the current U.S. as many as three 25 basis point rate cuts during this year, economic expansion continued to surge forward. Will and we are predicting that there will be one 25 basis point this expansion ever end? The answer is yes, of course, reduction in the federal funds rate around the middle of but this resilient current period of growth certainly the year. As additional data comes out, those who were appears “bulletproof.” Hurricanes, energy shocks, two expecting the Fed to reverse course on interest rates may years of tightening by the Federal Reserve, and an alleged find themselves, as Bob Marley sang, “waiting in vain.” housing bubble have all failed to bring an end to the Table 1 presents select results from the February 2007 current expansion. Preliminary real GDP growth for U.S. forecast publication. This publication, along with the 4th quarter of 2006 came in at a surprisingly strong all forecast publications, is available for download from 3.5%. Although the final number will most certainly be the Institute for Economic Competitiveness Web site: revised downward by a full percentage point or more, this www.iec.ucf.edu. The forecast reflects a slowing of the data does not appear to be generated by a floundering U.S. economy into the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2007. economy.

Consumer spending decelerates in response to a slowing Low unemployment and continued job creation also housing market and as a precautionary measure after point toward an expansion that is not yet out of steam. enduring yet another spike in energy prices. Consumer The housing bubble, which we have argued (for two years) spending did grow much faster this holiday shopping is more a housing soufflé than a speculation-fueled bubble, season as compared to the last, but the continued volatility has been cooling for more than a year but does not appear of energy prices will cause fatigue for consumers in 2007. to be the economic Achilles’ heel that housing alarmists The U.S. economy will begin to reenergize in the second expected it to be. half of 2007, and 2008 will see a return to growth in Despite this information, the cumulative effect of these excess of 3.0%. shocks, policy induced or otherwise, will begin to appear in 2007. The result will be a slowdown in the economy W h a t D o B igf o o t, t h e rather than a downturn, and beyond 2007, the effects will no longer be evident, as strong economic growth will L o c h Ne s s M o n s t e r a n d t h e H o u s i n g B ubb l e Ha v e resume.

Energy prices continue to take the economy on a roller- i n C o mm o n ? coaster ride that could give Orlando’s many theme parks a run for their money. Despite the volatility, energy prices Bigfoot, the Loch Ness Monster, and the housing bubble are down significantly from their record highs, and the all represent scary myths, as there is little evidence that cooling of the U.S. economy has lessened the threat of

Table 1. Selected Results from March 2007 U.S. Forecast 2006Q4

2007Q1

2007Q2

2007Q3

2007Q4

2008Q1

2.3

2.0

2.3

2.6

2.8

3.6

Consumer Price Index

-2.3

3.0

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.1

Oil - WTI ($ per barrel)

59.9

58.9

59.7

60.8

61.4

62.3

Total Real Consumption

4.0

2.5

2.3

2.6

2.6

3.7

Gross Domestic Product % Chg, Annual Rate

% Chg from a year earlier ($ per barrel)

% Chg, Annual Rate

Florida & Metro Forecast

F l o r i d a Summa r y

Job security is also a thing of the past. Today, the best they ever really existed. Of course, this lack of evidence thing a worker can aspire to achieve is employment doesn’t prevent people from believing in them. There are plenty of people who would argue the existence of any of security, but even this is not guaranteed. Education and the three. However, as time goes on, it becomes clear that training over the course of an employee’s working life are the housing bubble was a creation of a media frenzy and a essential to achieving employment security. Workers must response to facing the unknown territory that the housing continually hone and upgrade their skill set or else run the risk that their job is outsourced, and they are left with market tread upon in 2004 and 2005. skills that have reduced market value.

The housing soufflé reached its peak in 2005. It has K - 12 education is, of course, an important component subsequently come out of the oven and has been cooling of the overall educational system in Florida, but perhaps significantly. Housing starts will continue to fall off in more important is the state university system. A recent 2007, as mortgage rates continue their very slow climb consultants report1 delivered a and begin to recover in 2008 as dismal assessment of the state housing inventories are finally sold of Florida’s higher-education off. system. One could argue some This has been a fundamentalsof the points raised in this report driven expansion in the housing regarding the roles and objectives sector (as opposed to a speculative of individual universities within bubble), and as long as the the system as well as the role of fundamentals remain solid, the private institutions in the state; soufflé will not collapse. There however, in the system-wide is no sign that the demographic, – From a Fortune Cookie analysis, there are some salient macroeconomic, and financial points made. The scope of the underpinnings of the housing report defies full coverage, but two market are going away. In terms of prices, there will be some cooling, and the highest points of the soufflé are now points I find worthy of discussion here.

The first point has to do with tuition rates throughout settling. This cooling will mean soft prices with declines the state system. Florida is dead last among the 50 states in many areas. Some may argue that these price declines are proof of the existence of the bubble, and I wouldn’t be in total educational revenues per full-time equivalent surprised if they also believed that the giant Plaster of Paris (FTE) student. Florida is 46th in tuition per FTE. Florida does a better job than many states when it comes to footprints are proof of the existence of Sasquatch. appropriations per FTE, but there is little solace to be B r ig h t F u t u r e s : Dimmi n g found in that fact given the previous two rankings. The solution is very simple: free up the state universities to set F l o r i d a ’ s P r o s pec t s their own tuition rates, and let market forces work their magic. Unfortunately, the implementation of this fix is complicated by the second point — the Bright Futures The economy in Florida is engaged in a competition.

Scholarship program.

This competition is not limited to adjacent states or For politicians, the Bright Futures program is right up even to the United States as a whole. This contest is there with kissing babies and apple pie. For the Florida global, and in order to succeed in this competition, system of higher education, Bright Futures is an albatross Florida’s workforce must have world class educational around its neck. Raising tuition is complicated by the opportunities. fact that increased tuition rates automatically increase the High paying, low-skill jobs are a relic of a bygone era. state’s contributions toward higher education. The two The opportunities for a person to earn a good living by scholarship programs under the Bright Futures program working a physically challenging job are few and far guarantee recipients either 100% of tuition and fees between and growing increasingly scarce. Some of our or 75% of tuition and fees. The program also provides fathers or grandfathers may have worked in these jobs, raised a family, and owned a home and a new car. They may have even retired from the same company that they 1 Proposing A Blueprint For Higher Education In first worked for when they entered the labor force. Those Florida: Outlining The Way To A Long-Term Master days are gone. Statistics show that a person entering the Plan For Higher Education In Florida, Pappas workforce today can expect to hold ten jobs by the time Consulting Group 2007 they are 40.

Valuable Things are Not Cheap, Cheap Things are of No Value

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a Summa r y

benefits to students choosing to attend private schools based on the tuition of a comparable public institution and the percentages stated above. The program is flawed in other regards as well.

The academic requirements to merit the Florida Medallion Scholars Award (75% of tuition) are absurdly low. A student must have a 3.0 grade point average in high school and a composite (reading and math) SAT score of 970. These SAT score levels correspond to percentiles that are far too low to warrant any merit-based scholarship, let alone one that pays 75% of tuition and fees. A student who scores 490 on the critical reading portion of the SAT and a 480 on the math portion meets the Bright Futures requirement. That reading score represents the 44th percentile, and the math score represents the 36th percentile. Meritorious? These SAT score are below average and should not be rewarded with any scholarship, let alone a 75% scholarship. The GPA requirement is also extremely low. A 3.0 is a B average; while this is good enough to warrant admission to some of the state’s universities, it cannot justify any merit-based scholarship. Fifty-five percent of Florida schools received grade of B or lower, so earning a 3.0 grade point average in schools that are below average themselves is not an accomplishment that should be rewarded by a 75% reduction in tuition.

Some other statistics shed some light on the excesses of the current incarnation of the Bright Futures. At the University of Florida, 96% of admitted students are on Bright Futures – 96%!!! The percentage of admitted students at the University of Central Florida receiving Bright Futures is 89%. Nine out of 10 students are getting at least a 75% scholarship at UCF; it must be tough being the 1 out of 10 that doesn’t get that money. With the bar set so low, our universities are more likely to trip than to reach great heights.

The state university system is in critical condition, and without some dramatic changes, the Florida economy and the people of the state will continue to fall behind in the global competition for jobs and prosperity. What could be done to at least partially address the problems plaguing the state university system?

1. Raise the standards for the Bright Futures Scholarship program. Top students should be rewarded with scholarships, not below average students.

2. Remove the link between the award amounts provided through Bright Futures and the rate of tuition at Florida’s universities. A fixed dollar award insulates the legislature and the state’s budget from changing tuition rates at the state’s universities.

Florida & Metro Forecast

3. End Bright Futures support for students choosing to attend private universities and colleges in the state. It is not the obligation of the state to subsidize private higher education.

4. Reallocate the savings from the Bright Futures scholarship program to K -12 education throughout the state.

5. Allow, with oversight, the universities within the state system to set their tuition and fees structure to best meet the goals of each individual university. In today’s globally competitive economy, education is essential to individual workers and to the economy as a whole. Better funded universities ensure that workers will have the skills — and the ability to continually upgrade these skills — to successfully compete now and in the future.

Ri s k i s Ri s k Suppose you just got back from your daily five-mile run and are enjoying a tofu smoothie when the phone rings. It is your life-insurance agent calling and letting you know that your premiums are being increased because the company has too many smokers and obese clients.

Your agent goes on to explain to you that both obese and smoking clients have a higher mortality rate, thereby exposing his company to the probability of higher benefit payments this year and thus the increase in your premium.

In disbelief, you hang up the phone only to have it ring again. This time it is your auto-insurance agent informing you that your auto-insurance rates have been increased.

Many of his clients, he goes on to tell you, speed frequently, have driving under the influence convictions, or have been involved in previous accidents. He explains that these factors raise the number and size of claims that his company is exposed to, and this is the reason why your premiums are going up.

How long would it take before you were back on the phone calling these companies or writing e-mails and letters of complaint to them protesting the unfair treatment? After all, why should you be forced to pay higher premiums because other clients are higher risks?

These scenarios don’t take place because smokers are forced to pay higher life-insurance premiums, and accident-prone drivers are forced to pay higher auto-insurance rates.

Why then, when it comes to home-insurance premiums, do people become outraged that living in areas with a higher risk of hurricane damage results in higher insurance premiums? Why should people who live in interior parts

F l o r i d a Summa r y

of the state be forced to subsidize insurance for people who choose to live in the Florida Keys?

Unfortunately, the state has created this situation by taking on billions of dollars worth of risk. Every taxpayer in the state of Florida is now on the hook to pay for the $2 million beachfront homes most likely to be damaged or destroyed in a hurricane. This will also have the unfortunate consequence of encouraging further development in hurricane-prone areas throughout the state, thereby exposing taxpayers to an ever-growing risk.

Safe drivers should not have to pay for those who drive drunk, and those who choose to live in an area with a high risk of hurricane damage should not expect others to pay for this risky behavior. You might argue that drunk driving is an action that is under the control of the individual while a hurricane is an act of God. While this is true, the decision to build or live in a hurricane prone region is an individual’s choice, even if the hurricane itself is beyond individual control. In the eyes of the insurance industry, risk is risk, and higher risk justifies higher premiums.

More often than not, when governments intervene in markets, the outcome is disastrous, no pun intended.

Look at the current state of healthcare in this country for an example of just how badly these market interventions can go...

Hig h l ig h t s o f t h e F l o r i d a F o r eca s t 2007-2009 • •

•

•

Payroll employment growth is forecasted to slow to 1.9 % in 2007, with growth accelerating to 2.5% in 2008 and to 3.1% by 2009.

High-growth sectors forecasted to include (average growth rate 2007-2009): Professional and Business Services (5.8%), Transportation, Warehousing, and Utility (3.4%), Leisure and Hospitality (2.5%), and Education and Health Services (2.4%).

The housing soufflé still has all of the ingredients in place so that it will not go flat, but it is cooling.

Housing starts peaked in 2005 and will fall through 2007, with a peak to trough decline of more than 120,000 starts. As inventory clears, starts will rise again in 2008 and 2009.

Construction employment growth will tumble from more than 7.0% in 2006 to a decline of 1.7% in 2007.

In 2008, positive growth returns, rebounding to 3.7% growth in 2009.

• •

•

Gross State Product, which grew to nearly 8.5% in 2006, will slow to an average growth rate of 6.0% from 2007 to 2009.

Unemployment will rise slightly in 2007 to 3.5% and to 3.6% in 2008 - 2009. On average, unemployment will be 1.2% below our forecasted unemployment rate for the nation.

Personal income growth slows to 6.0% in 2007 before accelerating to 7.9% in 2009.

Ou t l o o k f o r F l o r i d a 2006-2009 G r o s s S t a t e P r o d uc t The Florida economy will continue to see strong growth over our forecast horizon. Aggregate output of the state, nominal Gross State Product (GSP), the statelevel analogue to Gross Domestic Product, expanded at a double-digit pace in 2005. From 2006 to 2009, GSP will grow at an average rate of 6.6%. During this period, growth will be the strongest in 2006 at 8.5%, slowing to 5.1% in 2007 before rising again to 6.9% in 2009. This predicted level of growth is well above the nominal GDP growth-rate forecast for the national economy during the same time period (5.4%). Nominal Gross State Product is expected to reach $870 billion by 2009 and will surpass $920 billion the following year.

P e r s o n a l I n c o me , Re t ai l Sa l e s , a n d A u t o Sa l e s For the sixth straight year, the growth rate of nominal personal income in 2006 in Florida will exceed the growth rate of personal income nationally. Personal-income growth will decelerate in 2007 but still remain around 6%, representing the seventh year of growth in excess of the national rate. Growth will strengthen in 2008 and 2009 with growth rates of 6.9% and 7.9%, respectively.

Real disposable income is expected to grow an average of 4.9% from 2007 to 2009 after an energy and housingdriven slowing of growth for 2007, which will come in at 3.9%.

Energy prices have been responsible for both the “giveth” and the “taketh” when it comes to retail spending over the past 18 months. Starting with the Katrina-induced spike in energy prices that led to a fall in the growth of consumer spending overall at the end of 2005, retail spending has been at the mercy of volatile prices at the Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a Summa r y

pump. The 2006 holiday season was a benefactor of falling energy prices during the 4th quarter of the year, leading to a better-than-expected end of the year for retailers.

The volatility of energy prices during the past year and a half has worked to either constrain or enhance consumer spending. The timing of these fluctuations has been both a blessing and a curse for retailers. The continuation of the uncertainty surrounding energy prices threatens to erode consumer confidence as nerves become frayed by fluctuating energy bills.

Current dollar retail sales for 2006 are expected to hit $265 billion and are expected to rise to $311.9 billion by 2009. 2007 will see a slowing in the growth rate of retail sales in the first half of the year. Energy prices are on their way back up after yet another precipitous decline, and this increase, coupled with cooling in the economy and some job losses in a few sectors, will lead to sluggish growth the first half of the year. 2008 will see retail sales growth start to accelerate with even stronger growth forecast for 2009.

Energy price volatility has continued to plague American automotive companies, and dealers are seeing inventories build up on their lots. Once again, we are starting to see substantial discounts and low or zero interest rate loans proliferate.

While gasoline prices have not surged back to the $3per-gallon level we witnessed at their peak, the recent drop in gas prices that took the price of a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline close to $2 has already reversed itself.

Gasoline is up to $2.25 per gallon and could climb higher.

Pickup truck and SUV sales are still feeling the impact of high gas prices. The demand for hybrids and other fuel-efficient vehicles continues to benefit from consumer concerns about gas prices. These markets were once sweet spots for American auto manufacturers, adding to their bottom, but now have turned into a liability and have sent manufacturers scrambling both to curtail losses and to search for a new business model.

The next few years will continue to be a struggle for auto sales in the state. The first half of 2007 should be the slowest of our forecast horizon, but growth, when it does return in 2008, will be tepid overall. Relatively speaking, fuel-efficient imports will outperform their American counterparts for the next several years.

E mp l o y me n t Payroll employment growth in the state was around 3.9% for 2005 and is expected to grow by 3.3% in 2006; this figure is compared to national job growth of 1.5% and 1.4% for 2005 and 2006, respectively. For the following three years (2007 to 2009), employment growth

10

Florida & Metro Forecast

should exceed that of the nation and average 2.5% in Florida.

The Construction sector, which has seen torrid growth in recent years (average payroll employment growth of 10.7% during 2004 and 2005) has finally slowed as a result of significant cooling in the housing market. This sector led all other sectors in 2006 employment growth at 7.2%. The overbuilding of both single-family homes and condos in Florida will catch up with this sector, and construction employment will contract by 1.7% in 2007 and grow weakly in 2008 before recovering to 3.7% growth in 2009.

The Professional and Business Services sector is another sector continuing to show robust growth in Florida.

2005 growth came in at 6.3%, but we are forecasting this growth to decelerate to 3.8% in 2007 before rising rapidly to 7.7% in 2009.

The Transportation, Warehousing, and Utility sector should see growth accelerate in 2008 and 2009, with growth of 3.7% and 4.3% in these years. This acceleration follows a slowing of growth in 2007 to 2.2%. The Transportation, Warehousing, and Utility sector growth, like the automotive sector, has been hampered by volatile energy prices in the past year that resulted in employment growth dropping from 4.1% in 2005 to 2.2% for 2006.

Manufacturing, after taking a brief hiatus in 2004 and 2005 from its downward trend, continues to contract in Florida and throughout the nation. Between 2006 and 2009, almost 10,000 additional jobs will be lost.

These losses will increase the number of manufacturing jobs lost over the 1999 to 2009 period to 77,000 jobs.

Three factors are driving the fall in manufacturing employment, including increasing pressure from emerging economies, increased productivity of labor in this sector, and the increased usage of employee leasing that leads to classification of employees in other sectors.

U n emp l o y me n t Unemployment rates in the state averaged 3.8% in 2005 and declined to 3.2% in 2006. The unemployment rate will rise gradually to 3.5% in 2007, as the economy cools, and hold in the vicinity of 3.6% in 2008 and 2009.

Unemployment rates in the state will continue to remain well below national unemployment rates, which are expected to average 4.7% from 2007 to 2009.

Table 15. Government Receipts and Expenditures

1998

1999

2002

Receipts Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Corp. Profits Tax Accruals Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Contributions for Social Insurance

1653.1 744.3 203.0 78.2 576.4

1773.8 825.8 204.3 81.1 613.8

1891.2 893.0 213.0 83.9 651.7

200

Expenditures Purchases Goods & Services National Defense Other Transfer Payments To Persons To Foreigners Grants in Aid to State & Local Gov't Net Interest Subsidies less Surplus of Gov't Entities Surplus (+) or Deficit (-)

1708.9 530.9 349.6 181.3 918.9 704.2 13.9 198.6 278.5 32.1 -55.8

1735.0 530.5 345.7 184.7 946.5 716.9 14.6 212.8 281.2 34.9 38.8

1787.6 555.8 360.6 195.2 986.1 735.7 15.2 232.9 264.7 44.1 103.6

750.0 182.0 34.1 533.8 10.8 198.6

794.9 201.2 34.9 558.8 10.4 212.8

840.4 214.5 35.8 590.2 9.8 232.9

893.2 236.6 35.6 621.1 11.0 247.3

915.8 242.7 30.2 642.8 13.7 276.1

929.0 221.3 32.2 675.5 15.8 304.6

979 226 35 717 19 338

1058.3 937.8 227.6 -0.1 -11.8 1.5 0.0 39.1

1111.2 987.9 235.8 -1.0 -9.8 1.7 0.0 52.0

1186.3 1065.0 252.4 -3.8 -10.0 1.8 0.0 50.4

1269.5 1142.8 271.7 -4.5 -7.1 1.9 0.0 50.0

1368.2 1212.8 305.2 5.2 3.6 2.0 0.0 4.8

1444.3 1281.5 332.0 16.5 -1.6 2.0 0.0 -34.2

1514 1336 353 24 0 2 0 -20

MFederal a r c h Government 2 0 0 7 Receipts 2053.9 999.1 219.5 87.8 691.7

2016.2 994.5 164.7 85.8 717.5

1853.2 830.5 150.5 87.3 734.3

1879 774 197 89 758

1864.4 578.8 370.3 208.5 1038.1 770.0 18.3 247.3 263.2 46.1 189.5

1969.5 612.9 392.6 220.3 1131.4 838.7 14.0 276.1 240.2 53.1 46.7

2101.1 679.7 437.1 242.5 1243.0 916.9 18.8 304.6 213.7 39.1 -248.0

2252 756 497 259 1328 963 23 338 196 45 -372

State and Local Government Rece Receipts Personal Tan/Nontax Receipts Corporate Profits Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Contributions for Social Insurance Federal Grants-In-Aid Expenditures Purchases Godds & Services Transfer Payments Interest Received Net Subsidies Dividends Received Net Wage Accruals Surplus (+) or Deficit (-)

t ab l e s

F l o r i d a F OR E C A ST

2000

History 2001

1997

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch) U.S. (%Ch) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch) U.S. (%Ch) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch)

372.1 5.9 6.1 391.2 4.1 7.1 343.7 3.2 3.5 391.5 5.4 414.7 3.2

402.5 8.2 7.3 419.3 7.2 10.4 367.0 6.8 5.8 417.2 6.6 435.6 5.0

423.8 5.3 5.1 434.3 3.6 8.6 380.0 3.5 3.0 442.6 6.1 453.3 4.1

457.5 8.0 8.0 457.5 5.3 8.6 398.4 4.8 4.8 471.3 6.5 471.3 4.0

478.6 4.6 3.5 468.8 2.5 6.6 410.5 3.0 1.9 497.4 5.5 484.9 2.9

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

3.1 2.8 5.0 4.9

2.7 2.2 4.5 4.5

2.3 1.8 4.0 4.2

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Personal Income and GSP 495.5 515.6 566.4 3.5 4.1 9.8 1.8 3.2 6.2 478.5 488.2 522.5 2.1 2.0 7.0 0.7 3.2 11.9 428.4 443.6 472.0 4.4 3.5 6.4 3.1 2.2 3.6 522.7 556.8 609.4 5.1 6.5 9.5 497.3 518.8 552.7 2.6 4.3 6.5

606.6 7.1 5.2 544.0 4.1 7.5 485.5 2.9 1.2 673.3 10.5 595.3 7.7

651.3 7.4 6.4 568.4 4.5 5.5 502.5 3.5 2.7 730.5 8.5 629.0 5.7

690.3 6.0 5.1 591.4 4.0 3.8 521.9 3.9 3.1 767.7 5.1 647.8 3.0

738.3 6.9 5.6 620.1 4.8 6.7 547.8 5.0 3.6 814.6 6.1 674.2 4.1

796.8 7.9 6.4 655.9 5.8 7.1 578.8 5.6 4.1 870.5 6.9 706.2 4.8

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) 2.3 0.7 -0.1 2.0 3.2 3.9 4.2 2.1 1.6 1.0 1.5 2.5 2.9 3.6 3.8 4.7 5.7 5.3 4.7 3.8 3.2 4.0 4.7 5.8 6.0 5.5 5.1 4.6

2.8 3.1 3.5 4.9

1.8 2.0 3.6 4.9

1.9 1.9 3.6 4.5

1.0 1.9 4.2 -1.7 -1.7 -2.1 -1.5 2.2 2.4 1.1 1.9 3.8 2.9 3.1 -0.4 0.8 2.2

1.4 2.5 2.1 0.4 -0.8 -1.3 -0.5 3.7 2.2 3.0 1.2 6.0 2.0 2.4 0.5 1.3 1.6

1.7 3.1 -0.9 3.7 0.0 -0.2 0.0 4.3 2.7 2.2 1.9 7.7 2.3 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.7

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. & Business Services Edu. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't.

State & Local Gov't.

Population (thous) (%Ch) Net Migration (thous.) (%Ch)

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

(%Ch)

12

Florida & Metro Forecast

2.6 3.7 -4.3 3.5 0.2 -0.2 0.4 2.9 4.7 1.8 3.1 12.1 3.0 2.7 4.4 0.4 1.7

2.6 3.5 -0.2 4.2 -0.8 -0.4 -1.1 4.3 3.6 3.3 6.5 7.9 2.5 2.0 8.0 0.0 1.5

2.4 2.9 -6.8 3.6 -0.8 -2.3 -0.1 1.5 1.1 2.7 2.7 9.1 0.8 1.9 8.5 0.1 1.3

2.2 3.7 -1.8 5.7 -0.1 -2.6 1.2 1.8 3.4 3.2 2.5 7.1 2.8 2.4 5.2 3.8 3.7

0.0 1.3 -7.8 3.7 -4.9 -6.4 -4.1 -0.9 -0.2 -0.4 1.4 2.7 3.1 1.8 0.3 -2.4 2.9

-1.1 0.1 -10.3 1.2 -6.0 -3.7 -7.2 -2.8 -0.2 -1.2 1.2 0.2 2.8 0.4 -5.6 0.4 1.7

-0.3 1.1 -1.2 4.2 -4.4 -3.4 -4.9 -3.2 0.5 -0.3 2.2 1.3 3.8 1.9 -3.6 3.4 1.1

1.1 3.4 0.2 10.4 0.2 -2.1 1.5 1.6 3.4 2.7 3.8 5.0 3.0 4.6 -2.0 0.4 1.4

1.5 3.9 1.3 11.0 0.9 -1.6 2.1 4.1 4.4 4.1 4.4 6.3 2.2 3.1 0.4 1.6 1.2

1.4 3.3 2.7 7.2 -0.1 -0.9 0.3 2.2 3.3 2.3 3.2 5.1 2.9 3.9 0.4 0.5 2.0

Population and Migration 15221.3 15518.6 15798.1 16089.4 16396.5 16717.5 17034.6 17417.1 17802.9 18134.2 18487.3 18847.9 19213.9 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 69.9 62.3 63.0 63.2 69.5 69.0 74.5 86.0 76.5 69.6 75.3 76.2 77.4 -3.0 -10.7 1.6 0.4 10.3 -0.4 9.3 17.3 -10.9 -6.7 8.4 1.2 1.5

141.3 98.5 42.8

150.6 108.5 42.1

163.4 112.3 51.1

158.4 110.9 47.5

168.0 124.7 43.3

3.1

1.3

1.2

3.3

3.1

183.1 133.9 49.2

Housing 208.3 158.9 49.4

238.7 182.5 56.2

272.5 211.5 61.0

216.1 167.1 49.1

157.0 109.6 47.5

163.4 114.3 49.1

174.9 124.0 50.9

Consumer Prices 1.5 2.9 2.8

4.7

4.8

1.8

2.1

2.0

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Chg Year Ago) U.S. (%Chg Year Ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Chg Year Ago) U.S. (%Chg Year Ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Chg Year Ago) U.S. (%Chg Year Ago) GSP (Bil. $) (%Chg Year Ago) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Chg Year Ago)

655.9 6.9 6.8 569.1 3.9 5.9 503.3 3.0 3.2 735.8 7.8 631.4 4.9

665.1 6.8 5.9 578.1 4.8 2.8 510.7 3.7 3.1 743.3 6.6 635.8 4.1

675.2 5.7 5.0 582.9 3.5 2.4 514.8 3.4 2.7 753.5 5.3 640.0 3.0

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

3.8 3.4 3.3 4.7

4.8 4.6 3.2 4.5

3.7 3.9 3.3 4.7

685.0 6.1 5.3 588.4 4.4 2.7 519.0 4.2 3.6 762.8 4.8 645.2 2.9

695.0 6.0 5.1 593.9 4.4 4.3 524.0 4.1 3.3 772.4 5.0 650.2 3.0

706.0 6.2 5.1 600.3 3.8 5.6 529.8 3.7 2.7 782.1 5.2 655.6 3.1

717.9 6.3 5.1 607.3 4.2 6.1 536.6 4.2 3.0 795.0 5.5 663.0 3.6

731.2 6.7 5.5 615.7 4.6 6.6 544.2 4.9 3.6 807.7 5.9 670.2 3.9

745.1 7.2 5.7 624.3 5.1 7.0 551.8 5.3 3.8 821.2 6.3 678.0 4.3

759.1 7.5 6.0 632.9 5.4 7.2 558.7 5.5 4.0 834.4 6.7 685.6 4.6

773.5 7.7 6.2 641.5 5.6 7.2 566.2 5.5 4.0 848.9 6.8 693.8 4.6

789.1 7.9 6.3 651.4 5.8 7.2 574.8 5.6 4.1 863.3 6.9 702.2 4.8

804.6 8.0 6.4 660.8 5.8 7.0 583.1 5.7 4.2 877.8 6.9 710.4 4.8

820.0 8.0 6.5 670.1 5.9 7.0 591.1 5.8 4.3 892.2 6.9 718.6 4.8

1.9 1.9 3.6 4.6

1.9 1.9 3.6 4.5

1.9 1.9 3.6 4.4

1.9 1.9 3.6 4.3

1.7 3.1 -0.2 2.9 -0.5 -0.7 -0.4 4.1 2.6 2.5 1.6 7.7 2.4 2.3 2.4 1.1 1.7

1.7 3.1 -0.7 3.5 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 4.3 2.7 2.4 1.8 7.8 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.1 1.7

1.7 3.2 -1.2 4.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 4.3 2.7 2.1 2.0 7.6 2.2 2.3 2.2 1.4 1.7

1.7 3.2 -1.6 4.4 0.4 0.2 0.5 4.3 2.8 1.8 2.3 7.6 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.2 1.8

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) 3.0 3.4 3.5 4.9

2.8 3.1 3.5 5.0

1.6 2.0 3.6 5.0

1.7 2.0 3.6 5.0

1.8 2.0 3.6 4.9

1.9 2.0 3.6 4.8

1.9 1.9 3.6 4.7

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. & Business Services Edu. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't.

State & Local Gov't.

1.4 3.1 3.3 6.4 -0.3 -1.6 0.3 2.4 3.1 1.8 2.9 4.9 3.1 4.0 0.0 0.4 1.9

1.4 2.7 4.7 4.2 -0.9 -1.7 -0.5 1.3 3.1 1.2 2.7 4.7 3.3 3.6 0.0 0.1 2.2

1.2 2.3 4.3 0.3 -1.2 -2.2 -0.7 1.8 3.4 0.9 2.5 3.9 3.4 3.2 0.1 0.6 2.5

1.0 2.0 5.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.5 -1.9 1.7 2.4 0.7 2.0 3.8 3.2 3.8 -0.3 -0.3 2.7

0.9 1.8 4.1 -2.4 -2.0 -2.0 -2.1 2.3 2.1 1.2 1.9 3.7 2.8 2.8 -0.5 1.2 1.9

0.9 1.7 3.5 -2.5 -1.3 -1.6 -1.2 3.0 1.6 1.8 1.3 3.9 2.3 2.5 -1.0 1.7 1.5

1.0 1.9 3.0 -1.3 -1.2 -1.5 -1.0 3.2 1.7 2.5 1.0 4.6 1.8 2.6 -1.0 1.4 1.4

1.3 2.3 2.6 -0.3 -0.6 -1.4 -0.2 3.6 2.1 3.0 1.0 5.4 1.8 2.5 0.0 1.3 1.5

1.5 2.7 1.8 1.1 -0.6 -1.4 -0.3 3.9 2.4 3.2 1.2 6.5 2.0 2.3 0.8 1.2 1.8

1.6 2.9 0.8 2.1 -0.7 -1.1 -0.6 4.0 2.6 3.1 1.4 7.3 2.1 2.3 2.0 1.1 1.7

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Chg Year Ago) Net Migration (thous.) (%Chg Year Ago)

18174.6 18263.2 18352.7 18442.9 18531.9 18621.5 18711.7 18802.6 18893.1 18984.1 19075.8 19168.0 19259.7 19352.0 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 70.6 74.4 75.3 75.9 74.7 75.3 75.9 76.4 76.0 76.6 77.1 77.6 77.1 77.6 7.3 12.5 13.2 13.6 5.7 1.2 0.8 0.6 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.4 Housing

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

190.8 148.4 42.4

160.4 117.5 42.9

157.5 112.1 45.4

157.1 109.0 48.1

157.1 108.8 48.3

156.3 108.2 48.0

4.9

3.0

1.9

1.5

1.4

2.5

158.5 110.6 47.9

161.0 112.5 48.6

165.2 115.7 49.5

168.8 118.4 50.4

172.3 121.3 51.0

174.2 123.3 50.9

176.0 124.9 51.1

177.2 126.5 50.7

2.1

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

Consumer Prices (%Chg Year Ago)

2.3

2.1

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

13

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 3. Employment Quarterly* 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

8088.0

8132.7

8167.2

8200.7

8230.6

8271.0

8325.6

8386.4

8449.8

8514.2

8580.4

8648.6

8716.6

8783.8

Manufacturing

399.4

396.6

395.3

391.9

391.3

391.4

390.6

389.6

388.8

388.5

388.6

388.9

389.3

390.1

Durable Goods

270.5

268.7

267.9

265.1

264.9

265.5

265.2

264.6

264.1

263.9

264.0

264.3

264.6

265.3

18.7

18.6

18.2

17.9

17.8

17.8

17.7

17.6

17.5

17.5

17.6

17.6

17.7

17.7

Wood Products Computer & Electronics

50.6

50.1

49.8

48.8

48.1

47.6

47.3

47.0

46.8

46.6

46.5

46.5

46.5

46.6

1767.5

1749.8

1743.4

1729.5

1744.6

1767.6

1777.0

1781.2

1786.9

1795.0

1806.6

1821.2

1834.7

1848.0

128.9

127.9

127.4

126.7

126.4

125.9

125.4

125.0

124.6

124.6

124.6

124.7

124.7

124.8

32.0

31.6

31.6

31.5

31.6

31.6

31.6

31.6

31.7

31.7

31.9

32.0

32.1

32.2

7688.6

7736.0

7771.9

7808.8

7839.3

7879.6

7935.1

7996.8

8061.0

8125.7

8191.8

8259.6

8327.3

8393.7

7.5

7.6

7.6

7.7

7.8

7.8

7.9

7.9

7.9

7.9

7.9

7.8

7.8

7.8

Construction

619.5

618.3

611.8

607.8

604.6

602.6

604.0

606.1

611.1

615.4

621.2

627.5

635.2

642.6

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

248.5

249.0

250.5

252.0

254.3

256.4

258.6

261.1

264.2

266.7

269.3

272.2

275.5

278.3

Transportation Equipment Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Wholesale Trade

351.4

354.7

356.4

357.1

358.7

360.2

362.4

364.6

367.3

369.4

371.7

374.3

377.2

379.8

Retail Trade

1007.9

1009.5

1012.7

1014.9

1019.6

1027.7

1037.9

1045.7

1052.1

1059.8

1064.0

1070.4

1074.6

1079.1

Information

169.4

168.8

169.1

169.1

168.5

167.2

167.5

169.1

169.9

170.5

171.4

172.5

173.6

174.4

Prof. & Business Services

1397.9

1409.1

1418.9

1434.6

1449.5

1463.6

1484.8

1512.1

1543.4

1570.8

1598.6

1629.4

1661.1

1689.5

Admin. & Support

867.8

877.1

882.1

891.2

898.0

905.0

919.2

939.5

963.6

983.9

1004.7

1028.5

1053.7

1075.9

Prof. Sci & Tech

454.1

455.2

459.7

465.9

473.5

480.2

486.7

493.1

499.8

506.2

512.5

518.7

524.6

530.0

76.0

76.8

77.1

77.5

77.9

78.4

78.9

79.4

80.0

80.7

81.4

82.1

82.8

83.5

Financial Activities

544.2

548.0

551.1

553.1

554.3

555.3

556.8

558.3

561.1

563.3

566.0

568.4

572.4

576.1

Real Estate & Rent

176.6

177.6

178.4

179.0

179.6

180.3

181.0

181.8

182.6

183.4

184.1

185.0

185.8

186.6

Fin. & Insurance

367.6

370.3

372.7

374.1

374.7

375.0

375.8

376.6

378.5

379.9

381.8

383.5

386.6

389.4

Edu. & Health Service

970.3

980.0

988.5

992.7

997.9

1002.9

1006.5

1010.7

1018.3

1024.3

1031.1

1036.5

1041.1

1044.6

Education Services

128.1

129.4

129.6

129.8

130.0

130.1

130.4

130.8

131.4

131.9

132.4

133.0

133.6

134.1

Health Services

842.3

850.5

858.9

862.9

868.0

872.9

876.2

879.9

886.9

892.4

898.6

903.5

907.6

910.5

Leisure & Hospitality

926.6

935.5

942.5

951.0

952.1

958.5

966.9

974.5

973.6

980.7

988.9

994.1

995.9

1001.8

Other Services

343.3

344.7

346.2

348.6

349.6

350.0

349.8

350.2

350.8

350.9

351.0

351.2

352.0

352.7

Mgmt. of Co.

Government

1102.1

1111.0

1116.6

1120.3

1122.4

1127.4

1131.9

1136.6

1141.3

1146.0

1150.7

1155.3

1160.8

1167.0

Federal Gov't.

129.3

129.0

129.7

130.3

130.8

131.2

131.6

132.0

132.3

132.7

133.0

133.4

134.2

135.6

State & Local Gov't

972.9

982.0

986.8

990.0

991.7

996.2

1000.3

1004.6

1009.0

1013.4

1017.7

1021.9

1026.6

1031.4

*Quarterly at an annual rate

14

Florida & Metro Forecast

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 4. Employment Annual 1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

6413.9

6635.9

6826.7

7080.3

7171.0

7180.2

7261.6

7510.4

7805.4

8060.7

8217.4

8419.0

8682.3

Manufacturing

470.8

466.9

463.0

462.5

439.9

413.2

395.0

395.9

399.4

399.1

392.4

389.4

389.2

Durable Goods

306.7

303.4

303.2

306.9

294.3

273.0

259.6

263.4

269.0

269.8

265.9

264.5

264.5

16.2

16.8

16.7

16.7

17.2

18.1

17.6

18.2

18.6

18.6

17.9

17.6

17.6

Wood Products Computer & Electronics

76.0

69.8

67.6

69.7

67.2

59.1

52.8

51.9

51.2

50.5

48.6

46.9

46.5

2026.3

2077.0

2087.1

2055.6

1937.8

1828.9

1774.0

1765.7

1772.3

1769.1

1746.3

1785.0

1827.6

164.1

163.5

159.8

155.6

145.6

140.2

135.4

132.5

130.4

129.3

126.6

124.9

124.7

38.1

37.1

36.8

36.1

34.6

34.6

33.5

32.7

31.9

32.0

31.6

31.7

32.0

5943.0

6168.9

6363.7

6617.8

6731.1

6767.0

6866.6

7114.6

7406.0

7661.6

7824.9

8029.6

8293.1

9.5

9.5

8.9

8.7

8.0

7.2

7.1

7.1

7.2

7.4

7.7

7.9

7.8

Construction

376.2

392.0

406.1

429.4

445.2

450.7

469.8

518.6

575.8

617.2

606.7

609.1

631.6

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

228.2

237.9

241.5

245.9

243.8

236.8

229.2

232.8

242.4

247.8

253.3

262.7

273.8

Wholesale Trade

289.9

300.3

303.4

313.6

312.9

312.2

313.8

324.5

338.6

349.9

358.1

365.9

375.8

Retail Trade

856.2

884.3

908.4

937.9

934.5

923.1

920.7

946.0

984.4

1007.3

1018.7

1048.9

1072.0

Information

152.4

164.6

178.6

187.9

188.3

177.8

171.3

167.9

168.6

169.2

168.5

169.2

173.0

Prof. & Business Services

Transportation Equipment Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

900.7

971.6

1060.3

1135.9

1166.7

1168.8

1184.2

1243.5

1321.0

1388.9

1441.6

1527.8

1644.6

Admin. & Support

545.9

594.7

663.4

714.8

733.4

728.8

735.2

772.1

822.7

862.9

894.1

951.6

1040.7

Prof. Sci & Tech

300.7

318.5

336.3

361.8

371.2

374.7

382.8

402.0

427.0

450.3

469.8

496.5

521.5

54.0

58.5

60.7

59.3

62.1

65.3

66.2

69.4

71.3

75.7

77.7

79.8

82.5

Financial Activities

413.3

440.1

451.8

463.0

469.3

474.9

485.6

504.1

526.3

543.0

553.4

559.9

570.7

Real Estate & Rent

131.1

133.8

138.0

143.5

147.0

150.2

153.5

162.2

171.2

176.9

179.3

182.2

185.4

Fin. & Insurance

282.2

306.3

313.8

319.5

322.3

324.7

332.1

341.9

355.1

366.1

374.1

377.7

385.3

Edu. & Health Service

764.3

783.2

789.1

811.4

836.5

859.6

892.3

919.4

939.6

967.1

995.5

1015.0

1038.3

Mgmt. of Co.

Education Services

76.2

80.5

84.7

91.5

94.5

99.7

108.2

116.9

123.3

128.0

129.9

131.1

133.3

Health Services

688.1

702.7

704.4

719.8

742.0

759.9

784.0

802.5

816.3

839.2

865.7

883.8

905.1

Leisure & Hospitality

741.8

757.0

771.2

789.8

804.1

807.5

823.2

860.9

887.9

922.9

951.0

973.9

995.2

Other Services

268.2

273.7

278.8

292.9

298.5

309.2

316.2

323.3

334.3

341.2

348.6

350.4

351.7

Government

942.2

954.7

965.5

1001.4

1023.2

1039.2

1053.2

1066.3

1079.9

1099.8

1121.7

1139.0

1158.5

Federal Gov't.

120.4

120.4

120.5

125.0

121.7

122.2

126.3

126.8

128.8

129.5

130.5

132.1

134.1

State & Local Gov't

821.8

834.3

845.0

876.4

901.5

917.0

926.9

939.5

951.1

970.3

991.2

1006.8

1024.4

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

15

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s

Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly* 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

655.9

665.1

675.2

685.0

695.0

706.0

717.9

731.2

745.1

759.1

773.5

789.1

804.6

820.0

Wages & Salaries

327.4

332.0

336.5

340.4

344.3

348.8

354.0

359.5

365.9

371.9

378.4

385.3

392.0

398.7

Other Labor Income

73.0

74.3

75.5

76.8

78.0

79.1

80.2

81.5

82.7

84.1

85.4

86.8

88.2

89.6

Nonfarm

39.2

39.3

39.8

40.4

41.2

41.9

42.8

43.8

44.7

45.7

46.7

47.8

48.8

49.8

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

Property Income

157.5

160.1

163.4

166.1

169.1

172.2

175.8

180.2

184.5

189.1

193.7

198.9

204.3

209.3

Transfer Payments

Farm

105.7

107.3

108.8

110.6

112.6

114.8

117.0

118.9

120.9

122.8

124.9

126.9

129.1

131.3

Social Insurance

49.0

49.8

50.9

51.6

52.4

53.1

54.1

55.0

56.0

56.9

58.1

59.2

60.3

61.4

Personal Income

569.1

578.1

582.9

588.4

593.9

600.3

607.3

615.7

624.3

632.9

641.5

651.4

660.8

670.1

Wages & Salaries

284.1

288.5

290.5

292.4

294.2

296.6

299.4

302.7

306.5

310.1

313.9

318.0

321.9

325.8

Other Labor Income

63.4

64.6

65.1

66.0

66.6

67.2

67.9

68.6

69.3

70.2

70.8

71.7

72.5

73.2

Nonfarm

34.0

34.1

34.3

34.7

35.2

35.6

36.2

36.9

37.5

38.1

38.8

39.4

40.0

40.7

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.5

136.7

139.1

141.1

142.7

144.5

146.4

148.7

151.7

154.6

157.7

160.7

164.2

167.8

171.1

Transfer Payments

91.8

93.3

94.0

95.0

96.2

97.6

98.9

100.1

101.3

102.4

103.6

104.8

106.0

107.3

Social Insurance

42.5

43.3

43.9

44.4

44.8

45.2

45.8

46.3

46.9

47.5

48.2

48.8

49.5

50.1

Billions 2000 Dollars

Farm Property Income

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

1310.7

1286.7

1274.7

1276.8

1287.4

1289.0

1295.8

1292.1

1299.5

1304.9

1307.6

1314.6

1318.7

1327.2

Retail Sales (Billions $)

266.7

268.7

272.2

275.0

278.9

282.6

287.0

290.7

295.2

299.6

304.4

309.4

314.3

319.6

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

231.5

233.5

235.0

236.2

238.3

240.3

242.8

244.8

247.3

249.8

252.4

255.4

258.1

261.2

*Quarterly at an annual rate

16

Florida & Metro Forecast

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

372.1

402.5

423.8

457.5

478.6

495.5

515.6

566.4

606.6

651.3

690.3

738.3

796.8

Wages & Salaries

181.3

197.2

210.1

228.4

239.2

247.1

258.7

279.1

302.4

326.2

342.5

362.8

388.6

Other Labor Income

37.6

39.9

42.5

45.1

47.6

51.8

56.2

61.5

67.5

72.7

77.3

82.1

87.5

Nonfarm

19.1

21.3

25.9

29.2

27.6

29.0

30.7

32.7

37.3

39.2

40.8

44.3

48.3

Farm

1.2

1.5

2.0

0.8

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.4

0.7

0.2

0.4

0.5

0.6

Property Income

99.5

109.4

109.4

117.9

122.9

122.0

120.1

137.1

142.9

155.5

167.7

182.4

201.6

Transfer Payments

59.6

61.2

63.7

67.9

74.4

80.4

85.5

94.8

99.1

104.7

111.7

119.9

128.1

Social Insurance

27.2

29.2

31.1

33.3

35.5

37.1

37.9

40.8

44.9

48.9

52.0

55.5

59.7

Billions 2000 Dollars Personal Income

391.2

419.3

434.3

457.5

468.8

478.5

488.2

522.5

544.0

568.4

591.4

620.1

655.9

Wages & Salaries

190.5

205.5

215.3

228.4

234.3

238.6

245.0

257.5

271.2

284.7

293.4

304.7

319.9

Other Labor Income

39.5

41.6

43.5

45.1

46.6

50.1

53.2

56.7

60.5

63.4

66.3

69.0

72.1

Nonfarm

20.1

22.2

26.5

29.2

27.1

28.1

29.1

30.2

33.5

34.2

35.0

37.2

39.7

Farm

1.2

1.6

2.1

0.8

0.9

0.7

0.7

0.4

0.6

0.2

0.4

0.4

0.5

104.5

113.9

112.1

117.9

120.4

117.8

113.8

126.5

128.2

135.7

143.7

153.2

165.9

Transfer Payments

62.7

63.7

65.3

67.9

72.8

77.6

81.0

87.5

88.9

91.4

95.7

100.7

105.4

Social Insurance

28.6

30.5

31.9

33.3

34.8

35.9

35.8

37.7

40.3

42.7

44.6

46.6

49.2

1181.0

1200.0

1253.3

1314.4

1405.6

1302.3

1397.7

1444.0

1450.4

1384.6

1282.0

1298.1

1317.0

Retail Sales (Billions $)

155.3

162.4

174.6

184.5

190.4

196.6

206.1

226.4

246.6

265.1

277.2

293.1

311.9

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

163.2

169.3

179.0

184.5

186.5

189.9

195.2

208.9

221.2

231.4

237.4

246.2

256.8

Property Income

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

17

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Florida Educat Services Em March 2007

(Thousa

1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0 750.0 700.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03

C H A RTS

F l o r i d a F OR E C A ST

1050.0

Florida Charts

Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

(%)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate

Florida Gross State Product (% change year ago)

12% 10% 8% 6% 4%

20

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 FL Gross State Product

Florida & Metro Forecast

Florida Charts

Florida Housing Starts 300.0

(thousands)

8.5% 8.0%

250.0

7.5% 7.0%

200.0

6.5% 6.0%

150.0 100.0

5.5% 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Total Private Housing Starts 30 year Mortgage Rates

5.0%

Florida Personal Income 12%

(% change year ago)

10% 8% 6% 4% 2%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

21

Florida Charts

New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations (% change year ago)

30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Florida Real Gross State Product (% change year ago)

9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1%

22

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Florida & Metro Forecast

Florida Charts

Florida Employment 9000.0

(Thousands)

8500.0 8000.0 7500.0 7000.0 6500.0 6000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Wage & Salary Employment

Florida Education & Health Services Employment 1050.0

(Thousands)

1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0 750.0 700.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

23

Florida Charts

Florida Federal Government Employment (Thousands)

140.0 135.0 130.0 125.0 120.0 115.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Florida Financial Activities Employment (Thousands)

600.0 550.0 500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0

24

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Florida & Metro Forecast

Florida Charts

Florida Information Employment 200.0

(Thousands)

190.0 180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Florida Manufacturing Employment 480.0

(Thousands)

460.0 440.0 420.0 400.0 380.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

25

Florida Charts

Florida Construction Employment (Thousands)

650.0 600.0 550.0 500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Florida Professional & Business Services Employment (Thousands)

1800.0 1600.0 1400.0 1200.0 1000.0 800.0

26

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Florida & Metro Forecast

Florida Charts

Florida State & Local Government Employment 1050.0

(Thousands)

1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment 1800.0

(Thousands)

1700.0 1600.0 1500.0 1400.0 1300.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

27

F l o r i d a New s Summa r ie s NFIB might cause cutbacks • The most recent National Federation of Independent Business poll regarding Florida’s property tax crisis has entrepreneurs considering cutting staff and reducing benefits.

• Some businesses might be closing all together or moving out of state in response to the tax problems.

• Most small businesses consider property taxes to be a threat for their business.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, February 7, 2007

FPL sues BellSouth • FPL sued BellSouth for the cost of repairing 2,500 poles in eight Florida counties that were damaged after three major hurricanes swept up the coast of Florida in 2004.

• In an effort to restore power quickly, FPL replaced the poles at its own expense and was never reimbursed by BellSouth.

• FPL has sued for breach of contract for a total of $7 million.

Source: The Florida Times-Union, December 29, 2006

California’s loss is Florida’s gain • After four nights of freezing temperatures in California, orange crops on the west coast are suffering. Florida citrus growers are hoping to make up for the lost crops with their own supply.

• Florida is the largest producer of oranges in the United States, with an annual economic impact of $9.1 billion and 90,000 jobs.

• As Florida ships some of its crops out to other states that California cannot reach, prices within the state could be expected to rise slightly to accommodate the shortage.

Source: Florida Today, January 17, 2007

Seminole Tribe buys Hard Rock Café • The Seminole Tribe of Florida purchased the Hard Rock business for $965 million.

• All 124 Hard Rock Cafés, 4 hotels, 2 casinos, 2 concert venues, and the world’s largest rock memorabilia collection were included in the deal.

• The tribe, which was the first American Indian group in Florida to become involved with gambling in 1979, is now a part of a $22 billion nationwide industry.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, December 7, 2006

Pfizer works on a Healthier Florida Program • Pfizer Health Solutions was awarded a $36million, two-year contract from the Florida Agency for Health Care Administration to work on a disease-management program called Healthier Florida.

• The program will put together groups of care managers throughout the state to provide disease management for Medicaid beneficiaries who suffer from chronic diseases.

• In total, about 50 care managers will help to serve the over 90,000 Medicaid patients.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, January 16, 2007 Minimum wage increase • The new year saw a 27-cent increase in Florida’s minimum wage, bringing the hourly rate to $6.67.

• The minimum wage in Florida is $1.52 higher than the federal rate, which currently sits at $5.15 an hour.

• An amendment to Florida’s constitution states that every year the Agency for Workforce Innovation establishes a new minimum wage.

Source: Agency for Workforce Innovation, January 10, 2007 28

Florida & Metro Forecast

CDC gives money for a health-tracking system • The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention gave $757,000 to the Florida Department of Health to create a web-based health-tracking system in Florida.

• Its goal is to improve public health policies and practices by tracking diseases and environmental hazards.

• Florida is one of only 16 states to receive funding by the CDC for this type of project.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, November 9, 2006 American Momentum Bank receives Florida charter • The Tampa-based American Momentum Bank (AMB) received its state-operating charter and plans to open a statewide independent bank.

• AMB has raised $100 million in initial capital.

• The bank will open its first 8,000-square-foot office in downtown Orlando in February.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, October 25, 2006

March 2007

Metros

F l o r i d a F OR E C A ST

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B eac h – O r m o n d B eac h

P r o fi l e s The Deltona – Daytona – Ormond Beach MSA is comprised only of Volusia County. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway, which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 490,055 as of July 1, 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 253,299 in December 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 7,654 unemployed people. (Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Volusia County Schools – 6,816 employees • Halifax Medical Center – 3,136 employees • Volusia County – 2,600 employees • City of Daytona Beach – 1,159 employees • Memorial Hospital – 1,000 employees • Embry Riddle Aeronautical University – 900 employees • Memorial Hospital West Volusia – 853 employees • Sherwood Medical – 850 employees • The Daytona Beach News-Journal – 829 employees • Daytona Beach Community College – 743 employees Source: Southeast Volusia Chamber of Commerce

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s In Deltona – Daytona – Ormond Beach, personal income is expected to grow, on average, 7.2% over the next three years, slightly outpacing the total personal income growth for Florida as a whole.

Non-farm employment growth is predicted to average 1.9% growth through 2009; growth will be the greatest in the professional and business services sector. The 30

Florida & Metro Forecast

leisure and hospitality sector should experience an average growth rate of 2.5% over the next three years, with trade, transportation, and utilities rounding out the top three growth sectors in Deltona and Daytona.

The unemployment rate for the metropolitan statistical area should remain ten basis points above Florida’s predicted 3.5% unemployment rate, and population growth will average 2.0% between 2006 and 2009. The Deltona – Daytona – Ormond Beach MSA is predicted to slightly outpace the state in population growth.

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Barton ready to break ground; streetscape project set to transform thoroughfare • The project aims to make Barton Boulevard the official downtown center for Rockledge and to capitalize on the improvements by attracting new businesses to the area.

• The total estimated cost for the project is $7.2 million.

• The city’s first library and cultural center will be located on the street.

• The project is expected to take two years to complete.

Source: Florida Today, January 17, 2007 Deland welcomes Frontier Communications; 500 new quality jobs coming to the area • Nearly 500 jobs will be brought to the Deland area by Frontier Communications Solutions, of Citizens Communications; the seventh largest telecommunications company.

• Frontier plans to invest more than $2 million in facility renovations for its customer care center.

• Dan McCarthy, executive vice president of Frontier, said that the company will be providing more than $13 million in new annual payroll to the area’s economy.

Source: Department of Economic Development, January 10, 2007 Deltona passes ban on street vendors • Deltona commissioners voted unanimously to pass an ordinance banning all street vendors from public right-of-ways and public property such as parks and unoccupied properties.

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B eac h – O r m o n d B eac h

• •

Violators face a fine of up to $500.

All items for sale will be illegal if sold from public space.

Source: Daytona Beach News-Journal, January 9, 2007

Work underway on $23 million Daytona police station • Daytona Beach residents approved a referendum in 2003.

• The project is funded by municipal bonds.

• Hawkins & Hall of Daytona Beach and Wilson Estes Police Architects of Mission, Kan. have designed the building.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, January 5, 2007 School board approves raises for superintendent, support staff • Volusia County School Superintendent Margaret Smith’s base salary will go up 5.5% to $170,066, retroactive to her March 15 employment anniversary date.

• The board also approved average raises of 7.5% for other administrators and technical support employees.

• Last month, the board approved a 7.5% raise for teachers.

Source: Daytona Beach News-Journal Online, November 3, 2006

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

31

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B eac h – O r m o n d B eac h Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach, MSA Industry Location Quotients Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0.0

0.3

0.6

(percent)

16000.0

10000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0

32

(Millions 2000 $)

12000.0

180.0

130.0

1.5

14000.0

8000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Deltona Payroll Employment

Florida & Metro Forecast

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Gross Metro Product

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income

Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment 190.0

1.2

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

0.9

7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%

(percent change year ago)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Personal Income

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B eac h – O r m o n d B eac h

Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

March 2007 Short-Term Forecast* 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

14.6 6.5 5.7 8.8 12.7 4.5 28.9 25.2 32 4.2

14.8 5.9 5.8 9 12.8 3.7 29.3 25.3 32.3 1.9

15 6.4 5.9 9.2 12.9 4.8 29.6 25.4 32.6 3.1

15.2 6.3 5.9 9.3 13 4.7 29.9 25.5 32.8 3.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

15.5 6.5 6 9.5 13.2 4.2 30.2 25.7 33.1 3.2

15.8 6.7 6.1 9.7 13.3 4.6 30.6 25.9 33.3 3

16.1 7.1 6.2 9.9 13.5 5 31 26.1 33.6 3.1

16.4 7.5 6.3 10.1 13.7 5.4 31.5 26.4 33.9 3.4

16.7 7.7 6.3 10.4 13.9 5.6 31.9 26.6 34.2 3.5

17 7.7 6.4 10.5 14.1 5.6 32.3 26.8 34.6 3.7

17.3 7.9 6.6 10.8 14.3 5.8 32.8 27.1 34.9 3.9

17.7 8.1 6.7 11.1 14.5 6 33.3 27.4 35.3 3.9

18.1 8.2 6.8 11.3 14.8 6.1 33.8 27.6 35.6 3.9

18.4 8.3 6.9 11.5 15 6.1 34.2 27.8 35.9 4

178.3 2.4 10.1 -2.1 168.2 2.7 14.7 3.7 34.4 1.9 5 27.1 2.4 2.8 1.9 7.4 1 21.8 3.1 31.7 3 23.3 3.8 8.6 2.7 1.4 0.3 22.2 1.8

178.6 1.3 10 -2.1 168.6 1.6 14.5 0 34.6 1.2 5 27.2 2.4 2.8 -0.3 7.4 1 21.8 2.8 31.8 1.7 23.4 1.7 8.6 0.6 1.4 0.6 22.3 2.5

179.1 1.6 10 -1.9 169.1 1.8 14.4 -2 34.7 1.8 5 27.2 2.4 2.8 1.6 7.4 1.2 21.8 2 31.9 2 23.7 3.4 8.7 2.6 1.4 0.7 22.3 2.4

179.5 1.2 10 -1.8 169.5 1.3 14.3 -3.1 34.9 1.5 5 27.4 2.4 2.8 1.2 7.4 1.4 21.9 0.8 32 2 23.7 3.1 8.7 1.3 1.4 1.4 22.4 1.7

180.2 1.1 10 -1 170.3 1.2 14.2 -3.2 35.2 2.1 5.1 27.7 2.5 2.8 0.5 7.4 1 22 1.1 32.1 1.4 23.9 2.8 8.7 1.1 1.4 2 22.5 1.3

181.2 1.4 10 -0.8 171.2 1.6 14.3 -1.5 35.5 2.6 5.1 27.9 2.5 2.8 0.1 7.4 0.7 22.2 2.2 32.2 1.1 24.1 3 8.7 0.7 1.4 1.7 22.6 1.3

182.3 1.8 9.9 -0.2 172.3 1.9 14.3 -0.8 35.8 3.2 5.1 28.1 2.5 2.9 1.1 7.5 0.6 22.6 3.4 32.3 1.3 24.3 2.7 8.7 0.1 1.4 1.6 22.7 1.5

183.3 2.1 9.9 -0.3 173.4 2.3 14.3 0.5 36 3.3 5.2 28.3 2.5 2.9 1.9 7.5 0.8 22.9 4.7 32.5 1.6 24.3 2.3 8.7 0.1 1.4 1.4 22.8 1.9

184.5 2.4 9.9 -0.4 174.6 2.5 14.4 1.4 36.3 3.3 5.2 28.6 2.6 2.9 3.2 7.5 0.9 23.3 5.8 32.7 1.7 24.5 2.3 8.7 0.1 1.4 1.4 22.9 1.9

185.7 2.5 9.9 -0.1 175.7 2.6 14.5 2 36.5 2.8 5.2 28.7 2.6 2.9 3.5 7.5 1.3 23.6 6.3 32.9 2.2 24.7 2.3 8.7 0.2 1.4 -3.5 23 1.8

187 2.6 10 0.3 177 2.7 14.7 3 36.7 2.7 5.3 28.9 2.6 3 3.1 7.6 1.4 24 6.6 33 2.2 24.8 2 8.7 0.2 1.4 -0.2 23.1 1.7

188.1 2.6 10 0.6 178.1 2.7 14.9 3.6 36.9 2.5 5.4 29 2.7 3 3.2 7.6 1.6 24.5 6.6 33.1 1.8 24.8 2.2 8.7 0.2 1.5 3.4 23.2 1.7

189.3 2.6 10 0.9 179.2 2.7 15 4.2 37.1 2.1 5.4 29.1 2.7 3 3.1 7.7 1.9 24.8 6.6 33.2 1.5 25 2 8.7 0.5 1.6 7.6 23.3 1.7

190.4 2.6 10.1 1.1 180.4 2.7 15.2 4.3 37.2 2 5.4 29.2 2.7 3 3.1 7.7 2.2 25.1 6.1 33.3 1.3 25.1 1.6 8.8 0.6 1.8 28.4 23.4 1.7

13848.3 502.8 1.8 254.6 4.8 3.1 3036 2141 895

13916.8 505.2 1.9 256.1 4.5 3.2 3592 2766 826

14014.5 507.8 1.9 257.6 4.1 3.4 3662 2752 909

14113.8 510.2 2 259 3.8 3.5 3744 2818 926

14221.8 512.7 2 260.4 2.2 3.5 3811 2881 930

14365.9 515.1 2 261.7 2.2 3.6 3926 3004 922

14513.3 517.7 2 263.1 2.1 3.6 4019 3088 931

14669.4 520.4 2 264.4 2.1 3.6 4138 3200 938

14824.1 523.1 2 265.8 2.1 3.6 4251 3293 958

14986.3 525.8 2.1 267.1 2.1 3.6 4347 3378 968

15168.2 528.7 2.1 268.5 2 3.6 4400 3432 969

15342.5 531.8 2.2 269.8 2 3.6 4439 3470 970

15514.6 534.8 2.2 271.1 2 3.6 4470 3507 963

15694.2 537.9 2.3 272.4 2 3.6 4512 3547 965

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

33

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B eac h – O r m o n d B eac h

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

March 2007 Short-Term Forecast 1999 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

9.6 4.7 3.6 6 9.9 3 21.9 22.5 24.9 4.9

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

10.4 7.7 3.9 6.5 10.4 5.1 23.3 23.3 26 4.7

10.9 5.5 4 6.9 10.7 3.3 24.2 23.7 26.7 2.5

11.4 3.7 4.3 7.1 11 2.3 24.7 23.8 27.7 4

11.7 3.2 4.6 7.2 11.1 1.2 25 23.7 28.6 3.3

12.5 6.8 4.9 7.6 11.5 4 26.1 24.1 29.8 3.9

13.3 6.6 5.3 8.1 12 3.6 27.2 24.4 30.5 2.6

14.2 6.8 5.7 8.6 12.4 3.9 28.5 24.9 31.8 4.1

15.1 6.3 5.9 9.2 13 4.3 29.7 25.5 32.7 2.9

16.2 7.3 6.2 10 13.6 5.1 31.3 26.3 33.8 3.3

17.5 8 6.6 10.9 14.4 5.9 33.1 27.2 35.1 3.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

34

Florida & Metro Forecast

143.7 1.3 10.4 -6.8 133.3 2 7.9 0.8 30.3 2.1 4.3 23.5 2.6 3 36.6 6.8 0 13.3 3.8 25.3 3.4 18.8 -1.1 6.8 1.6 1.3 5.3 19.6 -1.1

147.5 2.7 10.9 5.1 136.6 2.5 8.3 5.4 31.3 3.4 4.4 24.2 2.7 3.1 4.1 6.8 -0.6 13.3 0 25.9 2.3 19.2 2.3 7.1 5.1 1.5 12.5 19.9 1.3

150.3 1.9 10.3 -5.6 140 2.5 8.8 5.8 31 -1 4.4 23.9 2.7 3.4 7.4 6.6 -3.4 15.8 18.1 26.2 1.2 19.4 0.9 7.1 -0.1 1.3 -10.1 20.4 2.5

153.2 1.9 9.6 -7.3 143.6 2.6 9.6 9.3 30.8 -0.6 4.7 23.6 2.6 3 -10.4 6.4 -2.3 16.4 3.8 28.2 7.7 19.6 0.8 7.6 6.8 1.4 2.5 20.6 0.9

158 3.2 9.4 -1.5 148.6 3.5 10.5 8.7 31.4 1.6 4.6 24.3 2.5 2.8 -6.3 6.5 1.2 17.4 6.3 30.1 6.8 20 2.2 7.9 2.9 1.4 2.5 20.7 0.5

164.8 4.3 9.8 3.8 155 4.3 11.9 14 31.9 1.7 4.7 25 2.2 2.8 -2.1 6.9 7.2 19.1 9.7 30.7 1.8 21.1 5.3 8.2 4 1.4 0 21.1 2

171.8 4.3 10.2 3.9 161.6 4.3 13.7 14.5 33.2 4.3 4.8 26.2 2.3 2.7 -1.8 7.2 3.5 21 10.1 30.7 0.1 21.9 4 8.2 0.2 1.4 0 21.6 2.7

177 3 10.2 -0.1 166.9 3.2 14.6 7.2 34.2 3 4.9 26.9 2.4 2.8 3 7.3 2 21.5 2.4 31.4 2.3 23.1 5.3 8.6 4.6 1.4 0.1 21.9 1.3

179.4 1.3 10 -1.7 169.4 1.5 14.3 -2.1 34.8 1.7 5 27.4 2.4 2.8 0.7 7.4 1.1 21.9 1.7 32 1.8 23.7 2.8 8.7 1.4 1.4 1.2 22.4 2

182.8 1.9 9.9 -0.4 172.9 2.1 14.3 -0.1 35.9 3.1 5.2 28.2 2.5 2.9 1.6 7.5 0.7 22.8 4 32.4 1.4 24.3 2.6 8.7 0.2 1.4 1.5 22.7 1.7

187.5 2.6 10 0.4 177.5 2.7 14.8 3.2 36.8 2.5 5.3 28.9 2.6 3 3.2 7.6 1.6 24.2 6.5 33 1.9 24.8 2.1 8.7 0.3 1.5 1.8 23.1 1.7

9545.2 439.3 1.4 181.5 0.2 3.2 3903 3416 487

9860.1 445.9 1.5 209.7 15.5 3.4 3641 3195 446

10235.8 452.6 1.5 214.6 2.3 4.3 4506 3441 1065

10626.4 460.3 1.7 219.6 2.3 5.4 4891 4220 671

11199.3 468.9 1.9 226.5 3.1 5.1 6324 5077 1248

12002.5 479.8 2.3 233.5 3.1 4.5 6319 4868 1451

12998.2 490.4 2.2 240.1 2.8 3.6 6455 5208 1247

13717.4 499.3 1.8 249.1 3.8 3 4333 3299 1034

14066.7 509 1.9 258.2 3.7 3.4 3702 2805 898

14593.2 519.1 2 263.8 2.1 3.6 4084 3146 937

15252.9 530.3 2.2 269.1 2 3.6 4414 3447 967

G ai n e s v i l l e

P r o fi l e s The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist counties and is located in the north-central portion of the state. This metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history museum.

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 240,254 as of July 1, 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Alachua County population estimate of 223,852 as of July 1, 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Gilchrist County population estimate of 16,402 as of July 1, 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 132,669 in December 2006 for the metro area (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 2.3%, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 3,051 unemployed people. (Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • University of Florida – 35,000 employees • Shands Hospital – 8,225 employees • North Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,560 employees • Nationwide Insurance – 1,058 employees Sources: University of Florida and Gainesville Council for Economic Outreach

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s The average annual wage in the Gainesville metropolitan statistical area is predicted to grow, on average, by 3.3% through 2009.

The professional and business services sector is predicted to grow the most in the Gainesville MSA, with 3.8% average annual growth, while the leisure and hospitality sector should see the second-highest growth rate, with an average annual growth of 2.8%. The information sector is predicted to grow at a rate of 1.9%.

The unemployment rate will average out at 2.9% through 2009, the lowest rate predicted for all

metropolitan statistical areas. Population growth is predicted to increase slightly but will come in at 0.9%, the lowest growth rate for all of the metropolitan statistical areas forecasted.

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Shands Cancer Hospital coming to UF • A $388-million project to bring Shands Cancer Hospital to the University of Florida’s campus has begun.

• The new hospital, which will provide 1,000 new jobs, will be the home for 192 inpatient beds.

• Construction for the Shands Cancer Hospital is to be completed in 2009.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, January 12, 2007 Trailer-park community goes for $510 million • Briny Breezes trailer-park town will be sold to developers for $510 million.

• Homeowners of the 488 trailers will each receive more than $1 million.

• The land will be used to hold 900 condo units, a luxury hotel, and a marina.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, January 11, 2007 Local-owned company makes the big time • Gainesville’s Exactech, a company that makes bone and joint restoration products and other medical tools, has exceeded $100 million in sales for 2006.

• The company, which employs more than 200 people, is the seventh-largest orthopedic products company.

• This publicly traded company has been in business for 22 years.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, January 9, 2007 Millions to be spent on school building projects • The upcoming school year holds $9.6 million in building projects for Alachua County.

• $2.5 million will be spent on the purchase of Diamond Sports Park.

• The school board has proposed a tentative schedule of projects for the next five years that total $133 million. Only $47 million is certain; the rest could

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

35

G ai n e s v i l l e

possibly come from a ½ cent sales tax, which is expected to bring in around $20 million a year.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, November 1, 2006 Sysco is moving to Alachua County • The nation’s largest food distributor is moving to Alachua County to open a 318-acre redistribution center.

• The move is estimated to bring 500 to 600 new jobs to the area.

• In addition to new jobs, utility revenue and property taxes alone will add more than $2 million a year to the economy.

• The new facility, which will open partly in 2008, will support smaller businesses in the area by providing growth in the local economy.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, October 28, 2006

36

Florida & Metro Forecast

G ai n e s v i l l e Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

0.5

Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0%

(percent)

1.0

2.5

11000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

10000.0 9000.0 8000.0 7000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

140.0

6000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Gross Metro Product

Gainesville Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

135.0 130.0

4.0%

125.0

2.0%

120.0

0.0%

115.0 110.0

2.0

Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product

Gainesville Payroll Employment 145.0

1.5

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Gainesville Payroll Employment

-2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Personal Income

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

37

G ai n e s v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL

March 2007 Short-Term Forecast* 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

7.6 6.5 4.7 2.9 6.6 4.5 31.4 27.3 35 4.2

7.7 5 4.8 2.9 6.6 2.8 31.8 27.5 35.3 1.9

7.8 5.7 4.8 3 6.7 4 32.2 27.6 35.5 3

7.9 5.3 4.8 3 6.7 3.7 32.5 27.8 35.8 3.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

8.1 5.5 5 3.2 6.9 3.3 33.3 28.2 36.3 3

8.2 5.8 5 3.2 6.9 3.7 33.7 28.4 36.6 3.1

8.4 6.3 5.1 3.3 7 4.2 34.2 28.7 37 3.3

8.5 6.4 5.2 3.3 7.1 4.3 34.6 28.9 37.3 3.4

8.6 6.5 5.2 3.4 7.2 4.4 35.1 29.1 37.7 3.7

8.8 6.7 5.3 3.5 7.3 4.6 35.6 29.4 38.1 3.9

8.9 6.8 5.4 3.5 7.3 4.6 36.1 29.7 38.4 3.8

9.1 6.9 5.5 3.6 7.4 4.7 36.6 29.9 38.8 3.9

9.2 7 5.6 3.7 7.5 4.8 37.1 30.1 39.1 3.9

133.9 2.7 4.1 -1.6 129.8 2.8 6.5 3.1 18 0.6 2.9 13.4 1.7 2 1.6 6.2 2.2 12.7 4.2 22.8 3.5 14.7 4.4 4.7 0.9 3.6 0.2 38.7 2.9

134.3 1.8 4.1 -0.4 130.2 1.9 6.4 -0.7 18.1 0.7 2.9 13.4 1.7 2 3 6.2 2.6 12.6 0.5 22.9 2.6 14.8 4.8 4.7 0 3.6 -0.1 38.9 2.1

134.6 2 4 -1.3 130.6 2.1 6.4 -2.3 18.1 -0.5 2.9 13.4 1.7 2 2.3 6.2 2 12.7 2.1 22.9 2.2 14.9 3.2 4.7 1.7 3.6 0.4 38.9 3.8

134.8 1.2 4 -1.5 130.8 1.3 6.3 -3.1 18.2 1.2 3 13.5 1.7 2 0.9 6.3 1.5 12.7 0.8 23 1.8 15 3.2 4.7 1.1 3.6 0.8 38.9 1.2

135.3 1 4 -0.7 131.3 1.1 6.3 -3.2 18.3 1.7 3 13.6 1.8 2 0.2 6.3 1.1 12.8 1 23.1 1.2 15.1 3 4.7 0.9 3.6 1.3 39.1 0.8

135.9 1.2 4 -0.6 131.9 1.3 6.3 -1.4 18.5 2.2 3 13.7 1.8 2 -0.1 6.3 0.9 12.9 2.2 23.1 0.9 15.2 3.1 4.7 0.5 3.6 1 39.2 0.8

136.6 1.5 4 0 132.6 1.6 6.3 -0.7 18.6 2.7 3 13.8 1.8 2.1 0.8 6.3 0.8 13.1 3.3 23.2 1.1 15.4 2.8 4.7 0 3.7 0.9 39.3 1

137.3 1.8 4 -0.1 133.2 1.9 6.4 0.5 18.7 2.8 3 13.9 1.8 2.1 1.7 6.3 1 13.3 4.6 23.3 1.3 15.3 2.4 4.7 -0.1 3.7 0.8 39.5 1.4

138 2 4 -0.2 133.9 2 6.4 1.3 18.8 2.8 3 13.9 1.8 2.1 2.9 6.3 1 13.5 5.7 23.4 1.4 15.4 2.4 4.7 -0.2 3.7 0.7 39.6 1.4

138.7 2 4 0.1 134.6 2.1 6.5 1.8 18.9 2.2 3 14 1.8 2.1 3.2 6.4 1.4 13.7 6.2 23.5 1.8 15.6 2.2 4.7 -0.1 3.6 -0.5 39.7 1.3

139.4 2 4.1 0.6 135.3 2.1 6.5 2.8 19 2.1 3.1 14.1 1.9 2.1 2.7 6.4 1.5 14 6.5 23.6 1.8 15.7 1.9 4.7 -0.2 3.7 0.3 39.8 1.2

140.1 2 4.1 0.9 136 2.1 6.6 3.4 19 2 3.1 14.1 1.9 2.1 2.8 6.4 1.6 14.2 6.4 23.6 1.5 15.7 2.2 4.7 -0.2 3.7 1.4 39.9 1.1

140.7 2 4.1 1.2 136.7 2 6.7 4 19.1 1.6 3.1 14.1 1.9 2.1 2.7 6.5 1.9 14.4 6.4 23.7 1.2 15.8 2 4.7 0 3.8 3 40 1.1

141.5 2 4.1 1.4 137.4 2.1 6.7 4 19.1 1.5 3.1 14.2 1.9 2.2 2.7 6.5 2.1 14.5 5.9 23.7 0.9 15.8 1.5 4.7 0.1 3.9 8.6 40.1 1.1

9425.2 241.2 0.4 132.4 3.7 2.6 1891 982 909

9464.2 241.6 0.5 132.9 3 2.6 1446 894 552

9519.4 242.1 0.6 133.5 2.3 2.8 1484 877 607

9574.6 242.5 0.7 134 2.6 2.8 1500 880 620

9635.4 243 0.8 134.5 1.6 2.9 1516 889 628

9723.6 243.6 0.8 135 1.6 2.9 1559 921 638

9810 244.2 0.9 135.5 1.5 2.9 1586 940 646

9899.7 244.8 0.9 136 1.5 2.9 1620 966 654

9987.9 245.4 1 136.5 1.5 3 1652 983 669

10081.1 246.1 1 137 1.5 3 1678 1000 678

10183.7 246.7 1.1 137.5 1.5 2.9 1689 1016 673

10279.6 247.5 1.1 138 1.4 2.9 1694 1028 666

10374.8 248.3 1.2 138.5 1.4 2.9 1697 1040 657

10468.6 249.2 1.3 139 1.4 2.9 1694 1051 643

*Quarterly at an annual rate

38

8 5.4 4.9 3.1 6.8 3 32.9 28 36.1 3.2

Florida & Metro Forecast

G ai n e s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

March 2007 Short-Term Forecast 1999 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

5.2 4.5 3.1 2.1 5.3 2.8 22.6 23.1 26.2 1.8

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

5.5 6.2 3.3 2.2 5.5 3.7 23.7 23.7 27 2.9

5.7 3.8 3.5 2.3 5.6 1.6 24.5 24 27.7 2.6

5.8 1.8 3.6 2.2 5.6 0.4 24.8 23.9 28.6 3.4

6.1 4.6 3.8 2.3 5.8 2.5 25.7 24.4 30 4.7

6.6 7.6 4.1 2.5 6.1 4.8 27.5 25.4 31.7 5.7

7 6.1 4.3 2.6 6.2 3.1 29 26 33.3 5

7.4 6.9 4.6 2.8 6.5 4 30.9 27 34.7 4.3

7.8 5.3 4.8 3 6.7 3.4 32.3 27.7 35.7 2.8

8.3 6 5.1 3.2 7 3.9 34 28.5 36.8 3.2

8.9 6.7 5.4 3.5 7.3 4.6 35.9 29.5 38.2 3.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

119.1 2.1 5 -3.5 114.1 2.4 4.9 8.1 16.4 0.3 1.9 13.6 0.8 2.1 0.8 6.1 0.9 10.9 7.9 18.4 2.4 11.7 5.2 3.6 -1.4 2.9 -0.6 37.1 1.2

123.3 3.5 5.3 5.5 118 3.4 4.7 -2.9 17.1 4.6 2.1 14.1 0.9 2.3 11.6 6.4 4.2 11.3 3.7 19.3 4.5 11.8 0.8 3.8 6.1 3.1 6.6 38.1 2.7

124.8 1.3 4.6 -14.5 120.3 2 4.8 2.1 17.4 1.5 2.2 13.9 1.3 2.2 -6.5 6.6 4 11.1 -2 19.9 3.1 12.3 3.8 3.9 2.2 3.1 1.6 39 2.4

124.7 -0.1 4.5 -0.9 120.2 -0.1 5.1 5.6 17.2 -1.2 2.3 13.3 1.5 2 -6.5 6.6 -0.1 9.9 -10.4 20.4 2.4 12.1 -1.3 4.3 10.4 3.2 2.1 39.4 1

126.1 1.1 4.2 -5.9 121.8 1.4 5.2 1.5 17.3 1.1 2.5 13.2 1.7 2 -1.2 6.2 -6.4 10.4 4.3 20.8 2.3 12 -0.5 4.5 5.4 3.3 3.6 40 1.6

128.3 1.7 4.2 -2 124.1 1.9 5.8 11.7 17.4 0.3 2.6 13.2 1.6 2.1 6.1 6.2 -0.7 11.3 8.8 21.4 2.9 12.9 7.4 4.7 3.3 3.4 3.7 38.8 -2.8

129.5 0.9 4.1 -1.6 125.4 1 6.2 7.2 17.9 2.8 2.8 13.5 1.6 2 -5.8 6.1 -0.8 12 6.3 21.9 2 13.8 6.5 4.5 -3.2 3.6 4.4 37.4 -3.8

132.8 2.5 4.1 -0.2 128.7 2.6 6.5 5 18 0.7 2.9 13.5 1.7 2 -0.4 6.1 0.5 12.6 5 22.5 2.9 14.4 4.8 4.7 2.8 3.6 0.1 38.2 2.2

134.7 1.5 4 -1 130.7 1.6 6.4 -2.3 18.1 0.7 3 13.5 1.7 2 1.6 6.3 1.8 12.7 1.1 23 1.9 14.9 3.5 4.7 0.9 3.6 0.6 38.9 2

137 1.6 4 -0.2 132.9 1.7 6.4 -0.1 18.6 2.6 3 13.8 1.8 2.1 1.3 6.3 0.9 13.2 4 23.2 1.2 15.3 2.7 4.7 0.1 3.7 0.9 39.4 1.1

139.7 2 4.1 0.7 135.7 2.1 6.6 3 19 2 3.1 14.1 1.9 2.1 2.9 6.4 1.6 14.1 6.4 23.6 1.6 15.7 2.1 4.7 -0.1 3.7 1.1 39.8 1.2

7185.2 230.3 1.4 114.6 1.5 2.3 2662 1316 1346

7493.6 232.7 1.1 122.6 7 3 2195 1193 1002

7663.4 233.9 0.5 124.5 1.5 3.5 2377 1189 1188

7840.6 235.7 0.8 124.4 -0.1 4 1959 1151 807

8151.3 236.9 0.5 125.9 1.2 3.7 1746 1281 465

8550.6 238.5 0.6 127 0.9 3.4 1883 1404 478

8939.7 239.9 0.6 126.9 -0.1 3 2246 1478 767

9337.6 240.7 0.3 130.7 3 2.6 1954 1234 720

9548.4 242.3 0.7 133.7 2.3 2.8 1487 885 602

9855.3 244.5 0.9 135.8 1.5 2.9 1604 952 652

10229.8 247.2 1.1 137.8 1.5 2.9 1690 1021 668

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

39

J ack s o n v i l l e P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport.

The Jacksonville metropolitan statistical area is expected to average a per capita income of $32,700 through 2009, which is the third-highest average of the twelve forecasted metropolitan statistical areas.

The professional and business services, education and health services, and trade, transportation, and utilities sectors should see the most growth in the MSA . These sectors will expand at average annual growth rates of 5.6%, 2.4%, and 2.3%, respectively. Other sectors with growth rates above 2% include the leisure and hospitality and financial services sectors.

The Jacksonville MSA is predicted to see a large average annual decline in housing starts through 2009; they are expected to decline by about 6.9% annually. The unemployment rate is expected to keep pace with the statewide level of 3.6%.

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 1,248,371 as of July 1, 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Baker County population estimate of 24,569 as of July 1, 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Clay County population estimate of 171,095 as of July 1, 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Duval County population estimate of 826,436 as of July 1, 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Nassau County population estimate of 64,746 as of July 1, 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau) • St. Johns County population estimate of 161,525 as of July 1, 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 654,853 in December 2006 for the metro area (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3.1%, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 20,622 unemployed people. (Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Naval Air Station Jacksonville – 25,245 employees • Naval Station Mayport – 15,293 employees • Duval County Public Schools – 14,284 employees • City of Jacksonville – 8,828 employees • Baptist Health – 7,000 employees • Blue Cross & Blue Shield of Florida – 7,000 employees • Winn-Dixie Stores, Inc. – 6,200 employees • Mayo Clinic – 5,000 employees • CSX – 4,400 employees • Citibank (Citi-cards) – 4,200 employees Source: Jacksonville Cornerstone 40

Florida & Metro Forecast

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Clean-up brings jobs to local economy • The USS John F. Kennedy is being prepared for mothballing and deactivation in Jacksonville.

• Although the process will only last a few months, Navy officials estimate that many temporary jobs and millions of dollars will be added to the local economy.

• Most of the local contractors will receive a portion of the work involved in cleaning out the ship after its decommissioning ceremony toward the end of March.

Source: The Florida Times-Union, February 15, 2007 Amrep buys out Flagler’s largest employer • Amrep Corp., a New Jersey-based company, paid $92 million for Palm Coast Data Holdco Inc., a magazine subscription services company in Flagler County.

• The magazine service, which has been in business since 1984, employs more than 1,000 people.

• The union of the two companies provides a greater opportunity for growth for Palm Coast Data.

Source: The Florida Times-Union, January 18, 2007

J ack s o n v i l l e

St. Joe Company faces cutbacks • St. Joe, one of Florida’s largest private land owners, will continue to withdraw from home building to focus more on land developing.

• This move, sparked by low third-quarter earnings, decreases the number of employees by 5% and puts 2.3 million square feet of space on the market for renters.

Source: The Florida Times-Union, January 18, 2007 St. Johns County home to a new shopping center • In an effort to boost low retail business in St. Johns County, an upscale shopping center is underway near the World Golf Village.

• The first section of buildings is expected to be completed in just eight months, and storefronts will be owned, not leased, by the business owners.

• The need for more shopping centers in the area is partly due to a rise in population, which has risen more than 31% in five years.

Source: The Florida Times-Union, January 11, 2007 100,000 square-foot warehouse coming to Jacksonville • Caribbean Shipping is building a new warehouse to prepare for the arrival of the Japanese steamship company Mitsui O.S.K. Lines.

• The Jacksonville-based shipping company expects its cross-dock warehouse to be completed within 14 months.

• The temperature-controlled unit will house some of the cargo brought by Mitsui in the first quarter of 2008.

Source: The Florida Times-Union, January 9, 2007 $2.5 million toward improving Jacksonville’s health care • Brooks Rehabilitation, a physical rehabilitation service, has donated $2.5 million to local hospitals in the Jacksonville area.

• Over the next five years, Baptist Health, Flagler Hospital, Mayo Clinic Jacksonville, Shands Jacksonville, and St. Vincent’s Medical Center will each receive $500,000.

• The money will help with the hospitals’ renovation plans and make health care more accessible in the area.

Source: The Florida Times-Union, November 6, 2006

Economic impact of World Golf • According to a study by the University of Florida, World Golf Village in St. Johns County has added $3.25 billion to the northeast Florida economy during the last 10 years.

• The study analyzed economic activity generated by construction, businesses, and tourism.

• The study considered the impact that World Golf Hall of Fame, the Renaissance Resort, a convention center, and an IMAX movie theater had on St. Johns, Clay, Duval, Flagler, and Putnam counties.

Source: The Florida Times-Union, October 18, 2006 JEDC approves two New Projects • The Jacksonville Economic Development Commission (JEDC) offered over $847,000 for two new projects in the area.

• The projects will provide around 100 new jobs.

• The Samsonite Co. will be relocating and expanding its distribution facilities and a new food processing and frozen storage facility will be built.

Source: The Florida Times-Union, October 13, 2006 Macquarie Group moving to Jacksonville • The Australian financial services group chose Jacksonville as the headquarters for its U.S. mortgage business.

• The company, which is relocating from Tennessee, will bring more than fifty jobs to the local economy.

• Jacksonville was chosen over other higher-profile locations because of its growing reputation as a financial-services center.

Source: The Florida Times-Union, October 3, 2006

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

41

J ack s o n v i l l e Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

(percent)

0.5

1.0

60000.0 55000.0

45000.0 40000.0 35000.0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

30000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Gross Metro Product

Jacksonville Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

8.0% 6.0%

600.0

4.0%

550.0

2.0%

500.0

42

(Millions 2000 $)

50000.0

650.0

450.0

2.0

Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product

Jacksonville Payroll Employment 700.0

1.5

0.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Jacksonville Payroll Employment

Florida & Metro Forecast

-2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Personal Income

J ack s o n v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

March 2007 Short-Term Forecast* 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

46 6.6 27 19 40 4.6 36 31.3 41.3 4.2

46.7 5.3 27.4 19.3 40.3 3.1 36.5 31.5 41.7 2

47.4 6.1 27.7 19.7 40.7 4.4 36.8 31.6 42 3.3

48.1 6 28 20.1 41.1 4.4 37.2 31.8 42.4 3.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

48.8 6.2 28.3 20.5 41.5 3.8 37.6 32 42.7 3.4

49.6 6.2 28.8 20.9 42 4.1 38 32.2 43.1 3.3

50.5 6.6 29.2 21.3 42.5 4.5 38.6 32.5 43.4 3.4

51.5 7.1 29.7 21.8 43.1 5 39.1 32.8 43.9 3.6

52.4 7.4 30.2 22.3 43.7 5.3 39.6 33.1 44.3 3.7

53.4 7.7 30.7 22.7 44.3 5.6 40.2 33.4 44.7 3.9

54.5 7.9 31.3 23.2 45 5.7 40.8 33.7 45.2 4

55.6 7.9 31.8 23.8 45.6 5.8 41.5 34 45.6 4

56.6 8 32.3 24.3 46.3 5.8 42 34.4 46.1 4

57.

32.

24.

46.

5.

42.

34.

46.

4.

627.8 2.2 34.1 -2 593.7 2.5 50.1 6.6 135.2 1.2 28.5 75.4 31.3 11.3 -3.2 62.2 2.2 93.5 3.4 73.9 2.3 63.6 3.8 27.7 0.7 17.6 0.5 58.7 2.2

630.8 1.7 34 -3 596.8 2 49.6 2.1 135.7 0.9 28.6 75.7 31.5 11.3 -2.6 62.7 1.9 94.4 4 74.6 2.6 64 1.9 27.8 1.7 17.7 0.3 59 2.3

633.2 1.8 33.7 -3 599.5 2.1 49.3 -0.7 136.1 0.8 28.6 75.9 31.7 11.2 -3.5 63.1 2.2 95.3 4.5 75 3.3 64.6 3.4 27.9 1.5 17.8 0.8 59.1 2.6

635.3 1.7 33.7 -1.8 601.6 1.9 49.1 -2.1 136.9 1.6 28.7 76.2 32 11.2 -1.5 63.3 2.7 96.2 3.6 75.4 3.1 64.6 2.6 28 1.4 17.9 0.9 59.2 1.8

638.2 1.6 33.7 -1.1 604.5 1.8 49 -2.3 137.8 2 28.8 76.8 32.2 11.1 -2 63.5 2.1 97 3.7 75.8 2.5 65 2.3 28 1.2 17.9 1.5 59.5 1.3

642 1.8 33.6 -1 608.4 1.9 49.1 -1 139.1 2.5 29 77.6 32.5 11.1 -1.9 63.7 1.6 98.2 4.1 76 1.9 65.6 2.4 28 0.8 17.9 1.2 59.7 1.2

646.4 2.1 33.6 -0.4 612.8 2.2 49.3 0 140.1 2.9 29.2 78.2 32.8 11.2 -0.8 64 1.4 99.9 4.8 76.4 1.9 66.1 2.3 28 0.2 18 1 59.9 1.3

650.9 2.5 33.5 -0.5 617.4 2.6 49.7 1.3 141.2 3.2 29.4 78.7 33.2 11.2 0.1 64.4 1.7 101.7 5.8 76.9 2.1 66 2.2 28 0.2 18 0.9 60.2 1.6

655.6 2.7 33.5 -0.6 622.1 2.9 50.1 2.3 142.2 3.2 29.6 79.3 33.5 11.2 1.4 64.7 1.9 103.5 6.7 77.4 2.1 66.5 2.2 28 0.2 18.1 0.8 60.4 1.6

660.4 2.9 33.5 -0.4 626.9 3 50.5 2.9 143 2.8 29.8 79.6 33.8 11.3 1.7 65.1 2.1 105.3 7.2 77.8 2.4 67 2.2 28.1 0.4 18.1 0.8 60.6 1.6

665.4 2.9 33.5 -0.1 631.9 3.1 51 3.5 144 2.8 30 80.1 34.2 11.3 1.4 65.4 2.3 107.4 7.5 78.3 2.4 67.3 1.9 28.1 0.4 18.1 0.8 60.9 1.6

670.5 3 33.6 0.1 637 3.2 51.6 3.8 144.9 2.7 30.2 80.4 34.6 11.4 1.6 65.9 2.4 109.5 7.6 78.6 2.2 67.4 2.1 28.2 0.5 18.2 1.2 61.2 1.7

675.5 3 33.6 0.3 641.9 3.2 52.2 4.2 145.8 2.5 30.4 80.8 35 11.4 1.7 66.4 2.6 111.4 7.6 78.9 2 67.8 2 28.2 0.7 18.4 2 61.5 1.7

680.

50822.4 1275.7 1.6 656.9 3.5 3.4 12041 8010 4031

51165.9 1281 1.6 660.4 3.3 3.4 12060 8060 4000

51571.3 1286.7 1.7 663.3 3.3 3.5 12239 8143 4097

51962.1 1292.6 1.7 666.1 2.9 3.6 12164 8147 4017

52390.8 1298.5 1.8 668.8 1.8 3.6 12076 8171 3904

52975.6 1304.5 1.8 671.4 1.7 3.6 12136 8390 3747

53558.4 1310.5 1.9 674.1 1.6 3.6 12300 8545 3755

54165.6 1316.5 1.8 676.8 1.6 3.6 12598 8836 3762

54777.8 1322.4 1.8 679.7 1.6 3.6 12870 9078 3793

55435.2 1328.4 1.8 682.5 1.7 3.5 13185 9386 3799

56117.8 1334.3 1.8 685.3 1.7 3.5 13344 9543 3802

56780.4 1340.4 1.8 688 1.7 3.5 13470 9657 3813

57429.3 1346.5 1.8 690.6 1.6 3.4 13528 9760 3767

58048.

1352.

1.

693.

1.

3.

1359 985 374

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

43

33.

0.

646.

3.

52.

4.

146.

2.

30.

8 35.

11.

1.

66.

2.

112.

7.

79.

1.

6 1.

28.

0.

1 4.

61.

1.

J ack s o n v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

March 2007 Short-Term Forecast 1999 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

30.3 4.7 17.8 12.5 31.1 3 27.2 27.9 31.3 1.4

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

33.1 9.4 19.3 13.8 33.1 6.7 29.3 29.3 32.8 4.7

33.8 2 19.8 14 33.1 -0.1 29.3 28.7 33.4 1.8

35.1 3.9 20.4 14.7 33.9 2.4 29.9 28.8 34.8 4.3

36.9 5 21.7 15.2 34.9 2.9 30.7 29.1 36.7 5.5

39.5 7.1 23.2 16.3 36.4 4.4 32.2 29.7 38.2 4.1

42.1 6.6 24.8 17.3 37.8 3.6 33.7 30.2 39.4 3

45.1 7.1 26.6 18.5 39.4 4.2 35.6 31 41 4

47.7 5.9 27.8 19.9 40.9 3.9 37 31.7 42.2 3

51 6.8 29.5 21.6 42.8 4.7 38.8 32.6 43.7 3.5

55 7.9 31.5 23.5 45.3 5.7 41.1 33.9 45.4 4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

44

Florida & Metro Forecast

543.7 2.4 38.5 -0.5 505.2 2.7 31.3 1.6 124.3 1.9 24.5 67.7 32 14.4 7.3 55.4 3.7 80.9 5.9 58.9 2.2 49 3.3 22.7 1.5 18 -3.5 50.3 0.6

565.6 4 39.5 2.4 526.1 4.1 32.6 4.2 129.7 4.4 26.3 70.5 32.9 15.3 6.3 56.5 2 89.1 10.2 59.6 1.2 50.2 2.3 23.8 4.7 17.8 -1.1 51.5 2.4

567 0.3 36.2 -8.3 530.8 0.9 32.9 1 125.6 -3.2 26.2 67.6 31.7 14.4 -5.6 57.9 2.4 93.8 5.3 61.1 2.4 51.1 1.8 23.9 0.4 17.7 -0.7 52.5 1.9

561.5 -1 34.4 -4.9 527.1 -0.7 34.1 3.6 124.4 -0.9 25.9 68.1 30.4 13.2 -8.1 57.7 -0.3 86.1 -8.2 63.5 4 52.5 2.8 24.9 4.6 17.7 0.2 52.8 0.5

564.6 0.6 33.4 -3.1 531.3 0.8 36.7 7.4 125 0.5 26.8 68.8 29.4 12.4 -6.1 57.6 -0.1 84.1 -2.3 64.7 1.9 53.3 1.6 25.7 3 18 1.6 53.6 1.7

581.8 3 33.3 -0.3 548.5 3.3 40.9 11.5 128 2.4 26.9 71.1 30 11.6 -6.5 58.4 1.4 85.9 2.2 67.9 4.9 56.2 5.4 26.4 2.6 17.8 -1.3 55.4 3.2

605.6 4.1 34.1 2.5 571.5 4.2 45.1 10.4 132.7 3.6 27.5 74.1 31.1 11.8 1.9 59.9 2.6 88.5 3 71.3 5 60.3 7.2 27.1 2.7 17.5 -1.5 57.3 3.4

623.6 3 34.5 1.4 589 3.1 49.6 9.9 134.8 1.7 28.2 75.5 31.1 11.5 -3.3 61.8 3.1 92.1 4 73.1 2.4 62.9 4.4 27.5 1.6 17.7 0.9 58.1 1.4

634.4 1.7 33.8 -2.2 600.6 2 49.2 -0.8 136.6 1.3 28.7 76.1 31.8 11.2 -2.4 63.1 2.2 95.7 4 75.2 2.9 64.6 2.5 27.9 1.4 17.8 0.9 59.2 2

648.7 2.3 33.6 -0.6 615.2 2.4 49.6 0.6 140.7 2.9 29.3 78.4 33 11.2 -0.3 64.2 1.7 100.8 5.3 76.7 2 66 2.3 28 0.4 18 1 60 1.4

668 3 33.6 0 634.4 3.1 51.3 3.6 144.4 2.7 30.1 80.2 34.4 11.3 1.6 65.7 2.4 108.4 7.5 78.4 2.2 67.4 2 28.1 0.5 18.2 1.2 61 1.7

37438.4 1112.2 1.4 577.1 2.2 3.1 11325 8549 2776

39002.9 1129.5 1.6 589.4 2.1 3.2 10919 8249 2669

39746.6 1151.9 2 595.6 1.1 4.1 12766 10070 2696

40469.9 1176.3 2.1 595.8 0 5.4 14505 11273 3231

42242 1199.3 2 600.3 0.8 5.2 15375 13042 2333

44682.6 1225.3 2.2 611.1 1.8 4.7 18227 14127 4100

47906.3 1248.8 1.9 625.3 2.3 3.9 24211 18971 5241

50357.8 1268.1 1.5 646.4 3.4 3.3 17493 13087 4406

51772.5 1289.7 1.7 664.6 2.8 3.6 12135 8130 4004

53869.4 1313.5 1.8 675.5 1.6 3.6 12476 8712 3764

56440.7 1337.4 1.8 686.6 1.6 3.5 13382 9587 3795

Lake l a n d

P r o fi l e s The Lakeland MSA is comprised only of Polk County.

It is located in the western center of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus. It is home to a few attractions, including Cypress Gardens and Fantasy of Flight. Also, the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians conduct spring training in Lakeland and Winter Haven, respectively.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 542,912 as of July 1, 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 272,007 in December 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3.2%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 8,704 unemployed people. (Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 5,634 employees • Lakeland Regional Medical Center – 3,800 employees • GEICO – 2,130 employees • Watson Clinic – 1,200 employees • GC Services – 1,200 employees • Watkins Motor Lines – 848 employees • Rooms To Go – 800 employees • Summit Consulting – 693 employees • ICT Group – 500 employees • McDonald Construction Corp. – 500 employees • Key Safety Systems, Inc. – 500 employees Source: Lakeland Area Chamber of Commerce

sector is predicted to grow 2.7% annually through 2009.

Manufacturing is expected to decrease annually by 0.8%.

The unemployment rate of the Lakeland MSA is expected to remain 30 basis points above the state unemployment rate, while population will increase at a respectable annual average of 2.2%, which is 30 basis points above the state’s growth rate.

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s MidFlorida to acquire small operation • MidFlorida Federal Credit Union will merge with Imperial Polk to create a credit union.

• This merger will create a credit union with nearly $1.1 billion in assets and 19 branches in Polk, Highlands, Hardee, DeSoto, and Okeechobee counties.

Source: The Ledger, January 31, 2007 Lake Wales Airport slow to rebuild • Due to Hurricane Charley in August 2004, business is down 80% at the Lake Wales Airport.

• New building codes are slowing construction.

• The airport is currently operating out of three temporary buildings, and by 2008, all of the buildings will be rebuilt.

Source: The Ledger, November 21, 2006 Students in Polk exceed 90,000 • There are now 91,494 students in grades K-12 in Polk County.

• If growth rates continue at 3% or more, the county will surpass 100,000 students in 2009.

• A half-cent sales tax and state class size reduction money will be used to build new classrooms.

Source: The Ledger, November 21, 2006

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

Winter Haven to increase fees for planning, zoning • A 4-to-1 vote by Winter Haven commissioners Total personal income is predicted to grow an average of approved raising site plan review fees to $30 and 6.9% through 2009, on par with the state’s average growth plan submittal fees to $245. rate.

• Fees will also be levied for Community As with other metropolitan statistical areas, the Development District application submissions professional and business services sector is expected to and reviews of Development of Regional Impact lead the Lakeland MSA with a 4.1% annual growth studies. rate. The leisure and hospitality sector should grow at a Source: The Ledger November 15, 2006 rate of 3%, while the trade, transportation, and utilities Institute for Economic Competitiveness

45

Lake l a n d Lakeland MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate (percent)

8.0% 7.0%

20000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

14000.0 12000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

10000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Gross Metro Product

Lakeland Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

8.0% 6.0% 4.0%

200.0

2.0%

180.0

46

2.0

16000.0

220.0

160.0

1.5

Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product

Lakeland Payroll Employment 240.0

1.0

18000.0

6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0%

0.5

0.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Lakeland Payroll Employment

Florida & Metro Forecast

-2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Personal Income

Lake l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL

March 2007 Short-Term Forecast* 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

16.7 6.6 7.9 8.8 14.5 4.6 29.4 25.6 35.7 4.2

16.9 5.9 8 8.9 14.6 3.8 29.7 25.6 36 2

17.2 6.2 8.1 9.1 14.7 4.5 29.9 25.7 36.3 3.1

17.4 5.8 8.1 9.3 14.9 4.2 30.1 25.7 36.5 3.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

17.7 6.1 8.2 9.5 15 3.7 30.4 25.9 36.8 3.3

18 6.3 8.3 9.6 15.2 4.1 30.8 26 37.1 3.1

18.3 6.7 8.5 9.8 15.4 4.6 31.2 26.3 37.4 3.2

18.7 7.2 8.6 10.1 15.6 5.1 31.6 26.5 37.8 3.5

19 7.4 8.7 10.3 15.8 5.3 32.1 26.7 38.1 3.6

19.3 7.4 8.9 10.4 16 5.3 32.5 27 38.5 3.8

19.7 7.7 9 10.7 16.3 5.6 33 27.3 38.9 4

20.1 7.8 9.2 10.9 16.5 5.7 33.6 27.6 39.3 3.9

20.5 8 9.3 11.2 16.8 5.8 34.1 27.9 39.7 4

20.

9.

11.

1 5.

34.

28.

40.

220.4 2.8 17.5 -3.4 202.9 3.4 17.5 3.5 48.9 2.7 10.5 25.7 12.7 2.3 0.9 11.5 2.1 42.2 5.9 26.4 3.3 17.3 2.9 9.1 4 1.4 -0.3 26.4 2

220.8 2.3 17.5 -2.7 203.3 2.7 17.3 -0.3 49.2 2.3 10.6 25.8 12.9 2.3 -0.4 11.5 2 42.1 5 26.5 3.4 17.4 3.6 9.1 1.8 1.4 4.4 26.5 1.8

221.2 1.9 17.3 -2.9 203.9 2.3 17.1 -1.6 49.3 2.4 10.6 25.8 12.9 2.3 -0.4 11.5 2.6 42.3 3.3 26.6 2.2 17.6 4.7 9.2 1.4 1.4 4.6 26.6 2.1

221.8 1 17.3 -1.6 204.4 1.2 17 -3.6 49.6 1.9 10.6 25.9 13.1 2.3 1 11.6 1.5 42.4 0.6 26.7 2.2 17.7 3.4 9.2 1.1 1.4 1.4 26.6 1.7

222.6 1 17.3 -0.9 205.2 1.2 16.9 -3.8 50 2.3 10.7 26.2 13.2 2.3 0.2 11.6 1.2 42.6 0.8 26.8 1.6 17.8 3.2 9.2 0.8 1.4 1.9 26.7 1.3

223.9 1.4 17.3 -0.8 206.5 1.6 16.9 -2.2 50.5 2.7 10.8 26.4 13.3 2.3 -0.2 11.6 1.1 43 2 26.9 1.3 18 3.3 9.2 0.4 1.4 1.6 26.8 1.3

225.3 1.8 17.3 -0.3 208 2 16.9 -1.5 50.9 3.2 10.8 26.6 13.5 2.3 0.7 11.6 0.9 43.6 3.1 27 1.4 18.2 3 9.1 -0.1 1.4 1.4 27 1.5

226.7 2.2 17.3 -0.4 209.5 2.5 16.9 -0.3 51.3 3.4 10.9 26.7 13.7 2.3 1.5 11.7 1.1 44.3 4.4 27.2 1.7 18.1 2.6 9.2 -0.2 1.4 1.3 27.1 1.8

228.2 2.5 17.2 -0.6 211 2.8 17 0.6 51.7 3.4 11 26.9 13.9 2.3 2.8 11.7 1.1 44.9 5.4 27.3 1.7 18.3 2.6 9.1 -0.2 1.4 1.2 27.2 1.8

229.7 2.6 17.3 -0.4 212.4 2.9 17.1 1 52 3 11 27.1 14 2.4 3.1 11.8 1.5 45.5 6 27.5 2.2 18.5 2.4 9.1 -0.1 1.4 -3 27.3 1.7

231.4 2.7 17.3 0 214.1 3 17.2 2 52.4 2.9 11.1 27.2 14.2 2.4 2.7 11.8 1.6 46.3 6.2 27.6 2.2 18.6 2.1 9.1 -0.1 1.4 -0.2 27.4 1.6

233 2.8 17.3 0.3 215.7 3 17.4 2.6 52.7 2.7 11.2 27.3 14.3 2.4 2.8 11.9 1.7 47 6.2 27.7 1.8 18.6 2.4 9.1 -0.1 1.5 3 27.5 1.5

234.5 2.8 17.3 0.6 217.2 3 17.5 3.2 53 2.4 11.3 27.4 14.5 2.4 2.8 12 2 47.7 6.2 27.7 1.5 18.7 2.1 9.2 0.2 1.5 6.7 27.6 1.5

23 2.

17.

0.

218.

2.

17.

3.

53.

2.

11.

27.

14.

2.

2.

1 2.

48.

5.

27.

1.

18.

1.

9.

0.

1.

24.

27.

1.

17772.3 566.9 3 270.5 4.1 3.5 5722 5199 523

17866.5 570.7 2.9 271.9 3.9 3.6 6278 5590 688

17984.9 574.5 2.9 273.4 3.3 3.8 6347 5562 785

18107.6 578 2.7 274.8 2.1 3.9 6357 5549 808

18242.8 581.4 2.6 276.2 2.1 4 6255 5442 813

18430.8 584.4 2.4 277.5 2 4 6282 5476 806

18612.8 587.2 2.2 278.8 2 4 6349 5523 825

18801.3 589.9 2.1 280.1 1.9 4 6506 5650 856

18990.5 592.4 1.9 281.4 1.9 4.1 6604 5727 877

19185.4 594.6 1.7 282.7 1.9 4.1 6649 5802 847

19402.3 596.8 1.6 284 1.8 4.1 6719 5872 847

19607.6 599.3 1.6 285.2 1.8 4 6773 5914 859

19811.1 601.7 1.6 286.5 1.8 4 6777 5956 821

20020.

604.

1.

287.

1.

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

47

681 599 82

Lake l a n d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

March 2007 Short-Term Forecast 1999 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

11.1 5.6 5.1 5.9 11.3 3.9 23.1 23.7 28.5 2.7

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

11.5 4.1 5.5 6 11.5 1.6 23.7 23.7 29.4 3.3

12.2 6 5.7 6.5 12 3.9 24.8 24.3 30 2

12.5 2.1 5.8 6.7 12 0.6 24.9 24 30.5 1.7

13 4.5 6 7 12.3 2.5 25.4 24.1 31.6 3.4

14 7.4 6.5 7.5 12.9 4.7 26.6 24.5 32.2 1.8

15.2 8.4 7.1 8 13.6 5.3 27.9 25 33.5 4.3

16.3 7.5 7.8 8.6 14.2 4.7 29.1 25.4 35.4 5.5

17.3 6 8.1 9.2 14.8 4.1 30 25.7 36.4 2.9

18.5 6.9 8.5 9.9 15.5 4.8 31.4 26.4 37.6 3.3

19.9 7.7 9.1 10.8 16.4 5.6 33.3 27.4 39.1 3.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

48

Florida & Metro Forecast

179.6 1.9 21.3 -0.7 158.3 2.2 13.6 -4.2 43.6 3.5 7.9 26.2 9.5 2.1 5.5 8.9 2.5 21.1 6.7 21.3 2.6 14.4 4.7 7.1 -3.2 1.4 1.8 24.8 0

185.9 3.5 20.2 -5 165.7 4.7 13.8 1.5 45.1 3.4 8.1 27.3 9.7 2.3 11.9 9.6 8.5 23.4 11.1 22.3 5 14.9 3.2 7.2 1.3 1.6 15 25.3 2.1

188.2 1.2 18.9 -6.7 169.3 2.2 14 1.3 45.3 0.6 8.5 26.4 10.4 2.6 9.2 10.3 6.9 26 11.2 22.8 2.1 15.1 1.5 7 -2.6 1.4 -17.6 24.8 -2

187.7 -0.3 18.4 -2.2 169.2 -0.1 13.6 -2.8 44 -3 8.5 25 10.4 2.4 -4.9 10.8 5.3 26.4 1.4 22.5 -1.3 15.8 4.8 7.4 5.1 1.4 3 24.9 0.1

189.5 1 18.1 -1.9 171.4 1.3 12.9 -5.1 42.1 -4.2 9.1 22.5 10.5 2.2 -7.9 11 2 31.2 18.2 22.9 1.7 15 -5.4 7.5 0.9 1.4 -3 25.3 1.6

200.3 5.7 18.2 0.6 182.1 6.2 14.4 11.4 43.9 4.3 9.4 23.5 11 2.2 -1.1 10.9 -1 36.4 16.9 24.1 5.3 15.3 2.2 8 7.5 1.3 -2.5 25.5 1

212 5.8 18.2 0.1 193.7 6.4 16.4 14.1 46.9 6.8 10 24.9 12 2.2 0.4 11 1.3 39.4 8 25.4 5.6 16.6 8.7 8.6 7 1.4 5.1 25.8 0.9

218.3 3 17.7 -2.7 200.5 3.5 17.5 6.4 48.4 3.3 10.3 25.5 12.6 2.3 2.9 11.3 2.7 41.4 5.1 26.1 2.5 17 2.2 9 5.2 1.4 -2.5 26.1 1.5

221.6 1.5 17.4 -2.1 204.2 1.9 17.1 -2.3 49.5 2.2 10.6 25.9 13 2.3 0.1 11.6 1.8 42.4 2.4 26.7 2.3 17.6 3.7 9.2 1.3 1.4 3 26.6 1.7

226 2 17.3 -0.5 208.7 2.2 16.9 -0.9 51.1 3.2 10.9 26.7 13.6 2.3 1.2 11.7 1 43.9 3.7 27.1 1.5 18.2 2.9 9.2 0 1.4 1.4 27 1.6

232.2 2.7 17.3 0.1 214.9 2.9 17.3 2.2 52.5 2.8 11.2 27.2 14.3 2.4 2.8 11.9 1.7 46.6 6.1 27.6 1.9 18.6 2.3 9.2 0 1.4 1.7 27.4 1.6

12252.5 479.1 1.5 209.9 1.2 5.1 3985 3122 863

12714.9 486.3 1.5 231.2 10.2 4.1 4900 3640 1260

13115.2 493.2 1.4 236.2 2.1 5 4616 4014 602

13386.3 501.5 1.7 236.7 0.2 5.8 5022 4571 451

14033.2 512.2 2.1 239.4 1.2 5.6 6903 6271 632

15193.6 526.3 2.8 248.5 3.8 4.9 9250 8462 789

16617.9 544.1 3.4 258 3.8 4 13045 11914 1132

17557.5 560.6 3 266.5 3.3 3.4 10156 8927 1229

18050.4 576.1 2.8 274.1 2.8 3.8 6309 5536 773

18708.9 588.5 2.1 279.5 2 4 6435 5594 841

19501.6 598.1 1.6 284.6 1.8 4 6729 5886 844

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B eac h

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Miami – Fort Lauderdale – Miami Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, this area is home to many sports teams, such as the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins, and the Florida Panthers. Other major businesses also reside in this metro, including the Miami Seaquarium, the University of Miami, and Florida International University.

The Miami – Fort Lauderdale – Miami Beach metropolitan statistical area is predicted to have the highest average annual wage, $46,900, of the twelve MSAs forecasted. The gross metro product of the Miami – Fort Lauderdale – Miami Beach MSA is also the highest of the forecasted metropolitan statistical areas, averaging $204 billion through 2009.

The sector with the largest expected annual growth is the professional and business services sector with an annual growth rate of 5.9%. The education and health services sector and state and local government both are expected to grow 2.3% annually.

Population growth should average 1.4% growth through 2009. The predicted unemployment rate will be 10 basis points above Florida’s predicted unemployment rate of 3.6%.

Quick Facts: • Metro area population estimate of 5,422,200 912 as of July 1, 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,376,014 as of July 1, 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Broward County population estimate of 1,777,638 as of July 1, 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,286,548 as of July 1, 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 2,838,810 in December 2006 for the metro area (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3.1%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 88,079 unemployed people for the metro area. (Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Miami-Dade County Public School – 54,387 employees • Miami-Dade County – 32,265 employees • Federal Government – 20,100 employees • Florida State Government – 18,900 employees • Jackson Health System – 11,700 employees • Baptist Health South Florida – 10,300 employees • University of Miami – 9,367 employees • American Airlines – 9,000 employees • United Parcel Service – 5,000 employees • BellSouth – 4,800 employees

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s County convention tax tops $42 million • The Greater Miami Convention & Visitors Bureau released the numbers, stating that the amount Miami-Dade County collected in convention development tax increased 7.4% to total $42.74 million in 2006.

• In 2005, that total was $39.81 million.

• The tax goes toward building facilities such as the Carnival Center for the Performing Arts.

Source: South Florida Business Journal, Feb. 13, 2007 Super Bowl generates record Tri-Rail ridership • The South Florida Regional Transportation Authority (SFRTA) said Super Bowl XLI and game-related activities generated a 49% increase in ridership over the previous weekend.

• The total passenger count for the weekend was 13,537, SFRTA said.

• Tri-Rail carried 6,285 riders on February 3, 2007.

The following day that number increased to 7,252 passengers, marking the highest ridership in TriRail history for that day.

Source: South Florida Business Journal, Feb. 5, 2007

Source: Greater Miami Chamber of Commerce Institute for Economic Competitiveness

49

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B eac h

Miami hotels No. 2 for New Year’s occupancy • Smith Travel Research states that hotels in the Miami area ranked second among 25 U.S. cities for occupancy during the first week of 2007.

• For the week of Dec. 31, average occupancy in Miami-Dade County was at 74.5%, second only to Oahu, Hawaii at 83.4%.

• Miami hotels were third among the nation’s top-25 cities for average daily room rate at $193.63 for the same period.

• Miami’s room rate was up 12.6% from $171.99 the year before. This is a larger jump than the 10.9% statewide rise and 5.6% nationwide increase.

Source: South Florida Business Journal, Jan. 17, 2007 Broward 6th, Miami 13th in nation for apartments • In a national report by brokerage firm Marcus & Millichap, Broward County fell four spots to No. 6 among 42 national apartment markets.

• The Miami market fell from number 8 to number 13 in 2006.

• In Broward, strong demand and a lack of affordable housing will support a 6.1% increase in asking rents this year, with average rents reaching $1,163 a month.

• The report also stated that asking rents in the Miami market could increase to $1,151 a month, and effective rents may jump 6.1% to $1,107 a month.

Source: South Florida Business Journal, Jan. 16, 2007 Study: Biscayne good for economy • A report by independent economists Hardner & Gullison Associates LLC states that Biscayne National Park provides $5 for Florida’s state and local economies in return for every $1 that the federal government invests in the park’s budget.

• The report also states that Biscayne creates $19 million in annual recreational benefits, while its annual budget is slightly more than $3 million.

• Biscayne generates local annual revenue of about $24 million. It also supports more than 400 local jobs that are not park staff.

Source: South Florida Business Journal, Dec. 5, 2006

50

Florida & Metro Forecast

Cruise group to HQ in Fort Lauderdale • North America’s largest cruise industry organization, Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA), is moving its headquarters to a permanent location at 910 S.E. 17th St. Causeway in Fort Lauderdale.

• In this new location, CLIA will be closer to a majority of its member cruise lines, many of which are based in Fort Lauderdale or Miami.

• The CLIA received monetary assistance from Broward County’s Office of Economic Development, Port Everglades, and the Greater Fort Lauderdale Convention & Visitors Bureau to support the move to Broward County.

Source: South Florida Business Journal, Dec. 5, 2007

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B eac h Miami - Fort Lauderdale - Miami Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate (percent)

7.0%

0.3

0.6

1.2

1.5

Miami Real Gross Metro Product 220000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

200000.0

6.0%

180000.0

5.0% 4.0%

160000.0

3.0%

140000.0

2.0%

0.9

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate

120000.0

Miami Real Personal Income

Miami Payroll Employment 2700.0 2600.0 2500.0 2400.0 2300.0 2200.0 2100.0 2000.0 1900.0

(Thousands)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Gross Metro Product

8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Miami Payroll Employment

-2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Personal Income

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

51

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B eac h

Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach (MD), FL

March 2007 Short-Term Forecast* 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

216.1 6.9 110.3 105.8 187.9 4.9 39.4 34.3 44.2 4.2

219.1 5.4 111.7 107.4 189.2 3.3 39.9 34.4 44.7 2

222 6 113 109.1 190.7 4.3 40.3 34.6 45 3.3

225.1 5.5 114.2 110.9 192.3 3.9 40.7 34.8 45.4 3.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

232.1 5.9 117.3 114.8 196.4 3.8 41.7 35.3 46.1 3.3

236.3 6.4 119.1 117.2 198.9 4.3 42.3 35.6 46.5 3.4

240.6 6.9 121.2 119.4 201.6 4.8 42.9 36 47 3.6

244.9 7.2 123.1 121.8 204.2 5.1 43.5 36.3 47.4 3.7

249.5 7.5 125.3 124.2 206.9 5.4 44.1 36.6 47.9 3.8

254.4 7.7 127.5 126.8 210 5.5 44.8 37 48.4 4

259.2 7.7 129.7 129.5 212.9 5.6 45.5 37.4 48.9 4

264 7.8 131.8 132.2 215.7 5.6 46.2 37.7 49.3 4

268.8 7.8 134.1 134.7 218.5 5.6 46.8 38.1 49.9 4.1

2480 2.8 97.6 -2.2 2382.4 3.1 152 4.7 537.7 1.2 145.6 294.6 97.5 56.3 -2.3 186.2 3.8 442.1 4.8 314 3.1 257.9 3.2 104.3 1.8 34.6 0.5 297.2 4.4

2488.8 2.4 97.2 -2.6 2391.7 2.6 150.4 1.8 538.9 0.7 146.1 294.9 97.9 56.3 -2.5 186.8 2.9 445.4 4.1 316.5 3.4 259.1 3 104.8 1.8 34.8 1 298.7 4.7

2497.1 2.4 96.2 -3.3 2400.9 2.6 149.4 -0.1 539.4 0.5 146.2 294.9 98.4 56.2 -2.3 187.1 2.4 450.5 3.9 317.6 3.1 260.7 2.7 105.5 2 35 1.1 299.6 7.3

2504.5 1.5 95.9 -2.6 2408.6 1.7 148.6 -2.4 541.3 0.9 146.6 295.6 99.2 55.9 -1.4 187.2 1.1 455.1 3.9 319.1 2.6 260.4 1.6 105.8 1.8 35.1 1.3 300.1 1.9

2514.9 1.4 95.8 -1.9 2419.1 1.5 148.2 -2.5 544.1 1.2 147.1 297.4 99.9 55.3 -1.8 187.2 0.5 459.6 4 320.5 2.1 261.5 1.4 105.8 1.4 35.3 1.8 301.5 1.4

2530 1.7 95.5 -1.7 2434.5 1.8 148.5 -1.2 548.1 1.7 147.8 299.9 100.6 55.4 -1.7 187.6 0.4 466.4 4.7 321.6 1.6 263.3 1.6 105.8 1 35.4 1.5 302.7 1.3

2547.4 2 95.1 -1.1 2452.2 2.1 149 -0.3 551.4 2.2 148.6 301.6 101.5 55.8 -0.6 187.9 0.4 475.1 5.5 322.8 1.6 264.9 1.6 105.8 0.3 35.5 1.4 303.9 1.4

2565.9 2.5 94.8 -1.1 2471.1 2.6 150.2 1.1 554.8 2.5 149.6 303 102.6 56 0.3 188.6 0.8 485.1 6.6 325.2 1.9 264.2 1.5 106 0.2 35.6 1.3 305.2 1.7

2584.2 2.8 94.6 -1.2 2489.6 2.9 151.3 2.1 558.1 2.6 150.3 304.7 103.6 56.2 1.6 189.2 1.1 493.7 7.4 327.1 2.1 265.7 1.6 106 0.1 35.7 1.2 306.5 1.7

2602.8 2.9 94.5 -1 2508.3 3 152.7 2.8 560.5 2.3 151.1 305.6 104.5 56.5 2 190 1.3 502.2 7.7 329.3 2.4 267.7 1.6 106 0.2 35.8 1.2 307.8 1.7

2622.2 2.9 94.5 -0.7 2527.7 3.1 154.2 3.5 563.7 2.2 152.1 307.1 105.6 56.8 1.7 190.7 1.5 511.6 7.7 330.9 2.5 268.8 1.5 106.1 0.2 35.9 1.2 308.9 1.6

2641.5 2.9 94.4 -0.4 2547 3.1 156.1 3.9 566.7 2.1 153.2 308 106.8 57.1 1.9 192 1.8 521.3 7.5 332.3 2.2 269 1.8 106.2 0.2 36.1 1.5 310.3 1.6

2659.9 2.9 94.5 -0.1 2565.4 3 157.9 4.4 569.2 2 154.1 308.9 107.9 57.4 2 193.1 2 529.8 7.3 333.3 1.9 270.2 1.7 106.4 0.4 36.5 2.3 311.7 1.7

2677.6 2.9 94.6 0 2583 3 159.6 4.6 571.2 1.9 154.7 309.5 108.6 57.6 2 194.2 2.2 537 6.9 334.3 1.5 271.1 1.3 106.6 0.5 38.5 7.6 313 1.7

193343 5478.7 0.8 2820.4 4.4 3.4 25522 12757 12765

194413 5494.2 0.9 2831.8 4.1 3.5 27858 11869 15990

195788 5510.2 1 2843.3 3 3.6 28095 11951 16144

197130 5527.4 1.1 2855 2.6 3.7 27881 12332 15549

198604 5545.7 1.2 2867.7 1.7 3.8 27510 12562 14948

200690 5565.1 1.3 2881.1 1.7 3.8 27864 13092 14772

202795 5585.7 1.4 2894.3 1.8 3.8 28573 13623 14950

205028 5606.5 1.4 2907.2 1.8 3.8 29617 14332 15284

207236 5628.4 1.5 2919.3 1.8 3.8 30588 15012 15576

209604 5651 1.5 2931.7 1.8 3.8 31393 15640 15753

212059 5674.1 1.6 2944.2 1.7 3.8 31935 16119 15815

214425 5696.9 1.6 2956.7 1.7 3.8 32445 16525 15920

216759 5719.9 1.6 2969.3 1.7 3.8 32767 16888 15879

219136 5743.1 1.6 2981.6 1.7 3.8 33259 17396 15862

*Quarterly at an annual rate

52

228.5 5.7 115.6 112.8 194.2 3.4 41.2 35 45.8 3.4

Florida & Metro Forecast

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B eac h

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach (MD), FL

March 2007 Short-Term Forecast 1999 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

144.7 4.9 71.4 73.3 148.3 3.2 29.3 30 33.7 5

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

157 8.5 77.8 79.3 157 5.9 31.2 31.2 35.4 5.1

163.9 4.4 82 81.9 160.5 2.2 32 31.3 36.6 3.2

169.8 3.6 84.1 85.7 164 2.2 32.6 31.5 37.6 2.7

172.8 1.8 87.2 85.6 163.7 -0.2 32.7 31 38.8 3.4

183.6 6.2 93 90.6 169.4 3.5 34.3 31.6 40.2 3.6

196.8 7.2 100.5 96.3 176.5 4.2 36.3 32.6 41.8 3.9

211.7 7.6 108.2 103.5 184.8 4.7 38.8 33.8 43.9 4.9

223.7 5.7 113.6 110.1 191.6 3.7 40.5 34.7 45.2 3

238.5 6.6 120.2 118.3 200.3 4.5 42.6 35.8 46.8 3.5

256.8 7.7 128.6 128.2 211.4 5.5 45.2 37.2 48.6 4

2223.2 -0.1 112.4 -8.6 2110.9 0.4 118.8 -1.1 515.3 -1.5 132 286.1 97.1 61.8 -6.1 162.4 1.8 354 0.6 273.9 4.1 224.4 -1.1 93.6 0.3 32.1 1.3 274.8 2.5

2231.3 0.4 103.4 -8 2127.9 0.8 120.3 1.3 509.8 -1.1 133.9 282 93.9 57.5 -6.9 163.9 1 357.2 0.9 283.3 3.4 228.9 2 95.4 2 34.1 6.2 277.4 1

2297.5 3 100.8 -2.5 2196.8 3.2 129.4 7.6 516.1 1.2 138.2 284.8 93.1 56.6 -1.6 169.6 3.4 381.7 6.8 292.6 3.3 239.7 4.7 97.2 1.9 34.2 0.3 279.8 0.8

2388.5 4 100 -0.8 2288.5 4.2 142.8 10.4 528.6 2.4 141 291.8 95.8 57.3 1.3 177.2 4.5 415.4 8.8 300.7 2.8 247.2 3.1 101.2 4 34.6 1.1 283.6 1.4

2454.2 2.8 98.8 -1.2 2355.3 2.9 150.4 5.3 536.6 1.5 144 295.6 97 57.1 -0.4 183.9 3.8 435.4 4.8 309.8 3 254.9 3.1 103.7 2.5 34.6 0.2 289.1 1.9

2501.3 1.9 96.3 -2.6 2405.1 2.1 149.1 -0.8 540.9 0.8 146.5 295.7 98.8 55.9 -2 187.1 1.7 452.6 4 318.4 2.8 260.4 2.2 105.5 1.8 35.1 1.3 300 3.8

2556.9 2.2 95 -1.3 2461.9 2.4 149.8 0.4 553.1 2.2 149.1 302.3 102.1 55.9 -0.1 188.3 0.7 480.1 6.1 324.2 1.8 264.6 1.6 105.9 0.4 35.5 1.4 304.6 1.5

2631.6 2.9 94.5 -0.6 2537.1 3.1 155.2 3.6 565 2.2 152.6 307.4 106.2 56.9 1.9 191.4 1.7 516.2 7.5 331.5 2.2 268.9 1.6 106.2 0.3 36.1 1.5 309.7 1.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2103.1 1.8 138.7 -2.7 1964.4 2.1 108.4 4.1 512.5 2.4 119.3 292.1 101.1 56.2 6.2 155.3 -0.7 296.4 5.3 253.2 0.7 211.3 0.9 92.9 1.4 31.3 0.6 246.9 0.9

2180.1 3.7 133.5 -3.8 2046.6 4.2 117 7.9 521.4 1.7 123.8 296.7 100.9 61.7 9.9 157.5 1.4 326.5 10.2 256.5 1.3 219.3 3.8 95.9 3.2 32.8 4.7 257.9 4.5

2226.2 2.1 122.9 -7.9 2103.3 2.8 120 2.6 523.1 0.3 130.9 293.1 99.1 65.8 6.6 159.4 1.2 351.9 7.8 263 2.5 226.9 3.5 93.3 -2.7 31.7 -3.5 268.1 3.9

139864.5 145375.2 151039.6 154363.4 159891.1 169376.8 182007.9 191202.2 4944.7 5039.7 5128.3 5213.7 5283 5357.3 5418.9 5461.6 2 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.1 0.8 2433.2 2500.4 2545.7 2555.5 2574.5 2617.1 2681.2 2770.3 0.7 2.8 1.8 0.4 0.7 1.7 2.4 3.3 5.2 4.4 5.3 6.2 5.7 5 4 3.4 36342 34456 36290 38407 38960 41565 42253 33013 22865 22853 24052 22356 23961 24128 22919 16732 13477 11602 12237 16051 14999 17437 19334 16281

196484 203937.3 213212.1 5519.4 5596.4 5685.5 1.1 1.4 1.6 2849.4 2900.5 2950.5 2.9 1.8 1.7 3.6 3.8 3.8 27836 29160 32135 12178 14015 16293 15658 15146 15842

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

53

Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d

P r o fi l e s

The Naples – Marco Island MSA is predicted to witness 8.4% average annual growth in housing starts, the The Naples – Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier highest growth rate of the twelve forecasted MSAs. The unemployment rate in the Naples MSA is predicted to County only. Located on the southwest coast of Florida, average 3.2%, the second lowest in the state. The Naples the area is notable for numerous recreation and leisure MSA is expected to have a 3% average population growth activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the rate, the highest in the state.

“Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida.”

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 307,242 as of July 1, 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 155,968 in December 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 2.4%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 3,763 unemployed people. (Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Collier County School Board – 3,350 employees • NCH Healthcare Systems – 2,700 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,755 employees • Collier County Government – 1,060 employees • Marriott Corporation – 860 employees • County Sheriff’s Department – 838 employees • Winn Dixie Stores, Inc. – 760 employees • The Ritz-Carlton, Naples – 758 employees • Naples Registry Resort – 600 employees • Collier Enterprises – 500 employees Source: Naples Homes Real Estate and Relocation Services

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s The wait is over • Physicians Regional Medical Center-Collier Boulevard opened on Monday, February 5, 2007.

• The 100-bed, $80-million hospital on Collier Boulevard opened after two years of construction and will be joined by a new medical office building this spring.

Source: Naples Daily News, February 6, 2007 Businesses are sprouting up all over Collier County • Retail tenants will move into the Ave Maria town center in mid-2007.

• Tenants include Florida Community Bank, NCH Healthcare Systems, and the University Administration and Bookstores.

• The town center also houses 25,000 square feet of office space.

Source: Naples Daily News, January 5, 2007 New downtown Naples soon to be reality • A plan to revitalize downtown Naples with shops, restaurants, housing, and a hotel is underway, with some aspects of the project to be completed as early as the third quarter of 2007.

• Naples Bay Resort is the name of the project that combines living, shopping, and dining in one area.

• A similar project, called Imperial Landing, is proposed for Bonita Springs.

Source: The News-Press, December 20, 2006

The Naples – Marco Island metropolitan statistical area is expected to have the highest growth rate in personal income, averaging 7.2% annually. This is a full 100 basis Old City Hall gets face-lift points above the state’s predicted growth rate.

The MSA is expected to experience a high 2.5% average • The 78-year-old courthouse/city hall was damaged annual employment growth rate. Through 2009, the sector after Hurricane Wilma and recently underwent with the most average annual growth will be professional restoration. and business services at 5.3%. Leisure and hospitality and • The project cost $3.5 million, and the renovated trade, transportation, and utilities are predicted to grow courthouse was recently reopened.

4.6% and 3.7% annually, respectively.

Source: Naples Daily News, December 18, 2006 54

Florida & Metro Forecast

Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d

Naples Boulevard booms into area’s biggest shopping mecca • National retail stores, such as Best Buy and Lowe’s, along with franchises, including Panera and Petco, are springing up on Naples Boulevard.

• A Wild Oats Marketplace, which is a natural/ organic food supermarket, will also open in one of the four new shopping centers.

Source: Naples News, December 2, 2006 Coconut Point holds grand opening • Estero’s Coconut Point Mall held its grand opening on November 10, 2006.

• About 50 stores opened, but there are plans for almost 100 more, with most spaces leased or about to be leased.

• The Simon Group mall should see all stores open

by March 2007.

Source: Naples Daily News, November 11, 2006

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

55

Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d Naples MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0%

(percent)

0.5

1.0

14000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

10000.0 8000.0 6000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

4000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Real Personal Income 12.0%

(percent change year ago)

10.0% 8.0%

120.0

6.0%

100.0

4.0%

80.0

56

2.5

12000.0

140.0

60.0

2.0

Naples Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Payroll Employment 160.0

1.5

2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Naples Payroll Employment

Florida & Metro Forecast

0.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Personal Income

Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

March 2007 Short-Term Forecast* 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

15.1 7.6 6 9.1 13.1 5.6 47.1 40.9 43.2 4.2

15.3 7.3 6.1 9.3 13.2 5 47.4 40.9 43.6 2

15.6 7.2 6.1 9.5 13.4 5.5 47.9 41.1 44 3.2

15.9 6.6 6.2 9.6 13.6 5 48.3 41.3 44.3 3.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

16.2 7 6.3 9.8 13.7 4.6 48.9 41.5 44.7 3.4

16.5 7.2 6.4 10 13.9 5.1 49.4 41.8 45 3.3

16.8 7.7 6.5 10.3 14.1 5.5 50 42.1 45.5 3.4

17.2 8.2 6.7 10.5 14.4 6.1 50.8 42.5 45.9 3.6

17.5 8.4 6.8 10.7 14.6 6.3 51.5 42.9 46.4 3.7

17.8 8.5 6.9 10.9 14.8 6.3 52.1 43.2 46.8 3.9

18.3 8.7 7.1 11.2 15.1 6.6 52.9 43.7 47.3 4.1

18.7 9 7.2 11.5 15.4 6.8 53.8 44.2 47.8 4

19.1 9.2 7.3 11.8 15.6 7 54.6 44.6 48.3 4.1

19.

9.

7.

1 15.

7.

55.

44.

48.

4.

15

137.9 5.5 3.3 -1.2 134.6 5.7 23 9 25.2 3.6 3.6 19.7 1.9 1.9 1.4 7.9 4.8 17.4 3.2 15 4.3 24.2 9.6 6.2 3.3 0.7 -4.4 13.1 5

138.3 4.9 3.2 -2.3 135.1 5.1 22.7 5.8 25.3 4.2 3.7 19.8 1.9 1.9 1.3 8 2.2 17.5 2 15.1 5.3 24.5 9.7 6.2 5 0.7 -3.5 13.2 4.5

139.1 3.7 3.2 -2.5 135.8 3.8 22.6 0.5 25.5 3.3 3.7 19.9 1.9 1.9 2.6 8 3.3 17.6 3.2 15.2 4.3 24.8 8.7 6.3 3.8 0.7 -3 13.2 3.2

139.7 2.1 3.2 -1.6 136.5 2.1 22.6 -1.9 25.7 2.5 3.7 20.1 1.9 1.9 2.3 8.1 2.7 17.7 2.2 15.3 3.3 25 4.3 6.3 2.4 0.7 2.3 13.3 2.7

140.6 2 3.2 -0.9 137.4 2.1 22.5 -2 25.9 3 3.7 20.3 1.9 1.9 1.6 8.1 2.4 17.8 2.4 15.4 2.7 25.2 4.1 6.3 2.1 0.7 2.8 13.4 2.3

141.8 2.5 3.2 -0.7 138.5 2.6 22.7 -0.3 26.2 3.6 3.8 20.5 2 1.9 1.2 8.1 2.2 18.1 3.6 15.4 2.4 25.5 4.2 6.3 1.7 0.7 2.4 13.5 2.3

143 2.9 3.2 -0.1 139.8 2.9 22.7 0.4 26.5 4.2 3.8 20.7 2 2 2.2 8.2 2.1 18.4 4.8 15.6 2.6 25.8 3.9 6.3 1.2 0.7 2.3 13.6 2.5

144.3 3.3 3.2 -0.3 141.1 3.4 22.9 1.7 26.8 4.3 3.8 20.9 2 2 3.1 8.3 2.2 18.8 6.1 15.7 2.9 25.9 3.6 6.4 1.2 0.7 2.3 13.7 2.9

145.7 3.6 3.2 -0.4 142.5 3.7 23.1 2.6 27.1 4.3 3.9 21.2 2 2 4.4 8.3 2.3 19.1 7.2 15.8 3 26.1 3.6 6.4 1.1 0.7 2.2 13.8 2.9

147.1 3.8 3.2 -0.2 143.9 3.9 23.4 3.3 27.3 3.8 3.9 21.3 2.1 2 4.8 8.4 2.8 19.5 7.8 16 3.5 26.4 3.6 6.4 1.4 0.7 -2.8 13.9 2.9

148.7 3.9 3.2 0.1 145.5 4 23.7 4.3 27.5 3.7 4 21.5 2.1 2.1 4.3 8.4 2.9 19.9 8 16.1 3.5 26.7 3.3 6.4 1.4 0.7 0.6 13.9 2.8

150.1 4 3.2 0.4 146.9 4.1 24.1 5 27.7 3.5 4 21.6 2.1 2.1 4.4 8.5 3 20.3 8 16.2 3.1 26.8 3.5 6.5 1.3 0.7 4.4 14 2.8

151.6 4.1 3.2 0.6 148.4 4.1 24.4 5.6 27.9 3.2 4 21.8 2.1 2.1 4.3 8.6 3.3 20.7 8 16.3 2.9 27 3.3 6.5 1.6 0.8 8.7 14.1 2.8

10469.8 320.9 3 154.6 5.5 2.8 3429 2105 1324

10543 323.4 3.1 156 5.7 2.9 4132 2491 1641

10649.4 325.8 3.1 157.4 4.2 3 4347 2449 1898

10757.6 328.3 3.1 158.8 3 3.1 4436 2490 1946

10874.8 330.7 3.1 160.2 3.6 3.2 4535 2540 1995

11020.4 333.2 3 161.5 3.5 3.2 4720 2653 2066

11169.5 335.7 3 162.9 3.5 3.2 4883 2733 2150

11328.4 338.1 3 164.3 3.5 3.3 5078 2845 2233

11487.2 340.4 2.9 165.7 3.4 3.3 5302 2958 2344

11654.8 342.7 2.9 167.1 3.4 3.3 5511 3073 2438

11838.7 345.2 2.8 168.5 3.4 3.3 5632 3158 2475

12019 347.8 2.9 169.9 3.4 3.3 5707 3207 2500

12198.6 350.4 2.9 171.3 3.4 3.3 5746 3257 2489

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

57

3.

0.

149.

4.

24.

5.

28.

4.

21.

2.

2.

4.

8.

3.

20.

7.

16.

2.

27.

2.

6.

1.

0.

30.

14.

2.

12377.

35

172.

3.

3.

579 330 248

Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

March 2007 Short-Term Forecast 1999 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

9.3 8.3 3 6.4 9.6 6.5 38 38.9 31.6 6.8

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

10 7.2 3.4 6.6 10 4.6 39.2 39.2 33.9 7.2

11.1 10.5 3.7 7.3 10.8 8.2 41.6 40.7 35 3.3

11.6 4.9 4 7.6 11.2 3.5 41.9 40.5 35.6 1.6

12 3.3 4.2 7.7 11.4 1.3 41.8 39.5 37 4

12.7 6 4.7 8 11.7 3.3 42.7 39.4 38.6 4.1

13.7 7.5 5.2 8.4 12.3 4.5 44.4 39.8 40.7 5.5

14.7 7.7 5.8 8.9 12.8 4.8 46.4 40.5 42.9 5.4

15.7 7 6.2 9.6 13.5 5 48.1 41.2 44.2 3

17 7.9 6.6 10.4 14.3 5.8 50.4 42.3 45.7 3.5

18.5 8.8 7.1 11.4 15.2 6.7 53.3 43.9 47.5 4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

58

Florida & Metro Forecast

93.1 3.5 2.9 5.2 90.3 3.5 11.5 8.9 19.8 2.4 2.7 15.5 1.6 1.7 -2.5 5.6 2.2 11.2 3.1 10.4 1.6 15.4 2.1 4.7 4.8 0.6 1.3 9.3 5.4

99.8 7.1 2.9 1.8 96.8 7.3 13.2 13.9 20.8 4.9 2.8 16.3 1.7 1.8 6.1 5.9 5 12.1 8.4 11.1 6.6 16.7 8.3 4.9 3.9 0.7 20.5 9.7 4.3

106.5 6.7 3.2 9.4 103.3 6.6 14.6 10.7 22.2 7.2 3 17.5 1.8 1.8 0.5 6.2 4.8 12.5 3.5 12.1 9.7 17.4 4 5.1 4.6 0.7 -4.5 10.6 9.1

110.8 4.1 3.1 -3.4 107.7 4.3 14.7 1 22.7 2.1 3.3 17.6 1.9 1.8 -0.9 6.5 4.6 13.4 7.1 12.8 5.1 18.3 5.3 5.5 7 0.7 0 11.3 7.1

114.1 3 2.9 -5.3 111.2 3.3 14.6 -0.8 22.4 -1.3 3.1 17.7 1.7 1.7 -3.3 6.7 2.6 16.1 19.8 13.2 3.3 18.5 1.2 5.5 -0.3 0.7 0.1 11.8 4.5

120.6 5.6 3.1 5.9 117.5 5.6 16.7 14.8 23 2.4 3.3 18 1.7 1.8 7.3 7.1 5.8 17.4 8.1 13.4 1.8 20 8.1 5.4 -1.4 0.7 0 11.9 0.9

128.3 6.4 3.3 4.9 125 6.4 20.1 19.7 24.1 5.1 3.5 18.9 1.7 1.9 1.8 7.5 6.8 16.7 -4.1 14.3 6.2 21.7 8.4 5.8 6.9 0.7 0.1 12.3 3.1

135.2 5.4 3.3 1 131.9 5.5 22.5 12.3 24.8 2.7 3.5 19.4 1.8 1.9 2.1 7.8 4.1 17.2 3.2 14.7 2.7 23.3 7.5 6.1 5.5 0.7 -2.3 12.9 4.4

139.4 3.1 3.2 -1.8 136.2 3.3 22.6 0.5 25.6 3.3 3.7 20 1.9 1.9 1.9 8 2.7 17.6 2.5 15.2 3.9 24.9 6.6 6.3 3.3 0.7 -0.4 13.3 3.2

143.7 3.1 3.2 -0.4 140.5 3.2 22.9 1.1 26.6 4.1 3.8 20.8 2 2 2.7 8.2 2.2 18.6 5.4 15.6 2.7 25.8 3.8 6.4 1.3 0.7 2.3 13.6 2.6

149.4 4 3.2 0.2 146.2 4 23.9 4.5 27.6 3.6 4 21.6 2.1 2.1 4.5 8.5 3 20.1 7.9 16.2 3.3 26.7 3.4 6.4 1.4 0.7 2.8 14 2.8

6091.4 246.1 4.8 99.6 3.4 3.8 6956 3829 3127

6528.5 255.5 3.8 116.1 16.6 3.7 7677 4250 3427

7072.8 265.9 4.1 123.6 6.5 4.1 7602 4111 3491

7515.3 276.9 4.2 128.4 3.9 4.9 7129 4377 2752

7942.4 287.2 3.7 132.5 3.2 4.7 5476 3460 2016

8649.7 297.7 3.6 138 4.2 3.9 6236 4097 2139

9525.4 307.9 3.4 144.4 4.6 3.2 5811 4108 1703

10259.6 317.3 3 151.9 5.2 2.7 4474 3251 1222

10706.2 327.1 3.1 158.1 4.1 3.1 4363 2492 1870

11251.4 336.8 3 163.6 3.5 3.2 4996 2798 2198

11927.8 346.5 2.9 169.2 3.4 3.3 5649 3174 2475

Oca l a

P r o fi l e s Comprised of Marion County only, the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area in the center of the state. The second-largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 303,442 as of July 1, 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 130,055 in December 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3.2%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 4,157 unemployed people. (Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Marion County School Board – 5,700 employees • Munroe Regional Medical Center – 2,427 employees • State of Florida (all departments) – 2,263 employees • Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – 1,935 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,400 employees • Marion County Board of County Commissioners – 1,319 employees • Ocala Regional Medical Center & West Marion Community Hospital – 1,301 employees • Emergency One, Inc. – 1,274 employees • City of Ocala – 1,100 employees • Cingular Wireless – 1,000 employees

years, the greatest sector growth rate in the MSA. The leisure and hospitality sector is expected to grow at 3.8% annually through 2009.

Housing starts will decline 11.9%, on average, through 2009, although the population is expected to grow 2.7% annually. The unemployment rate is expected to average 3.8%.

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Emergency Operations Center coming to Marion County • With a recent donation of $2 million, Marion County has raised more than $6 million to start construction on a new Emergency Operations Center.

• The 5,500-square-foot facility will be used to house agencies and groups during hurricanes and other emergencies.

• Construction is planned for this summer.

Source: The Ocala Star-Banner, January 26, 2007 Marion County waste shortfall • Marion County needs to come up with a new plan to make up for a $6-million waste operation shortfall.

• Options that have been considered include raising customers’ annual fees, closing recycling centers, and putting more waste in a current landfill.

• The new five-year plan must be completed before the new fiscal year on October 1.

Source: The Ocala Star-Banner, January 18, 2007

Nine-acre park coming to Ocala • Six acres were donated to the county, and an additional three were purchased for $66,000.

Source: Ocala/Marion Economic Development Council • The park, which will be located along Orange Lake, will be one of only two public access points to the lake.

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s • The nine acres, which are rich in wildlife, are expected to remain part of a conservation unit.

The metropolitan statistical area of Ocala is expected to witness total personal income growth, on average, of 7.6% Source: The Ocala Star-Banner, January 17, 2007 annually through 2009. This is second-highest growth rate of the twelve forecasted metropolitan statistical areas, and 70 basis points greater than Florida’s expected personal income growth.

The professional and business services sector is predicted to experience 4.6% annual growth over the next three Institute for Economic Competitiveness

59

Oca l a

1940s Marion Theatre renovation • A $1.3 million renovation is underway for the old Marion Theatre in Ocala.

• The changes to the former Discovery Science Center are scheduled for completion in June.

• The new theater will be the home for independent and classic films and an annual Florida Family Film Festival.

Source: The Ocala Star-Banner, January 12, 2007 Springz Center makeover • Golf View Plaza bought the entertainment center for $3.7 million.

• The new owner plans to turn the center into a high-end office complex.

• The Springz Center closed in 2004 after only two years of operation.

Source: The Ocala Star-Banner, October 19, 2006 River clean-up • A 25-mile stretch of the Ocklawaha River will receive $1 million of clean-up.

• Since the hurricanes, debris has caused trouble for boaters and clogged the river.

• $750,000 in federal funding and $250,000 in state and local funds will be used to remove trees, and the Army Corps of Engineers will be responsible for maintaining the area after the clean-up is complete.

Source: The Ocala Star-Banner, October 17, 2006 Better schools in Ocala • Marion County approved a $34-million project to build a new fourth- through eighth-grade school.

• The new school will ease an already overcrowded situation at Sunrise Elementary.

• The new school is scheduled for completion in November 2007 so that it is ready to open for classes in January 2008.

Source: The Ocala Star-Banner, October 17, 2006

60

Florida & Metro Forecast

Oca l a Ocala MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

(percent)

0.5

1.0

2.0

2.5

Ocala Real Gross Metro Product 10000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

9000.0 8000.0 7000.0 6000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate

5000.0

(Thousands)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Gross Metro Product

Ocala Real Personal Income

Ocala Payroll Employment 115.0 110.0 105.0 100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 80.0 75.0

1.5

10.0%

(percent change year ago)

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Ocala Payroll Employment

-2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Personal Income

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

61

Oca l a

Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL

March 2007 Short-Term Forecast* 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

8.5 6.7 3.5 5 7.4 4.7 26.7 23.2 33.4 4.2

8.7 6.3 3.5 5.1 7.5 4.1 26.9 23.3 33.8 1.9

8.8 6.7 3.6 5.2 7.6 5 27.2 23.3 34 3.1

8.9 6.7 3.6 5.3 7.6 5 27.4 23.4 34.3 3.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

9.3 7.1 3.7 5.6 7.8 5 28 23.7 34.8 3.1

9.5 7.5 3.8 5.7 8 5.4 28.4 23.9 35.1 3.2

9.6 7.9 3.8 5.8 8.1 5.8 28.8 24.2 35.4 3.4

9.8 8.1 3.9 6 8.2 6 29.2 24.4 35.7 3.5

10 8.1 3.9 6.1 8.3 5.9 29.6 24.5 36.1 3.7

10.2 8.3 4 6.2 8.4 6.2 30.1 24.8 36.4 3.9

10.5 8.5 4.1 6.4 8.6 6.3 30.6 25.1 36.8 3.9

10.7 8.6 4.2 6.5 8.7 6.5 31.1 25.4 37.1 3.9

10.9 8.7 4.2 6.7 8.8 6.5 31.5 25.6 37.5 4

103.4 2.2 10 -0.7 93.4 2.5 10.4 3.2 22.8 1.1 4.1 16.5 2.2 2.1 0.6 5.5 1.8 9.1 2.4 12.4 3.7 10.1 4.3 4.3 2.9 0.7 -0.6 16 2.5

103.8 1.8 10 -0.6 93.8 2.1 10.2 -0.5 23 1.1 4.1 16.6 2.3 2.1 1.1 5.6 1 9.1 2.2 12.5 3.7 10.2 4.5 4.3 2.5 0.7 0.4 16.2 2.7

104.2 1.8 9.9 -1.2 94.2 2.1 10.2 -2.2 23 2.2 4.1 16.7 2.3 2.1 1.4 5.6 1.1 9.2 1.1 12.5 3.6 10.3 4.8 4.3 1.7 0.7 1.3 16.2 3.1

104.6 1.7 9.9 -1.7 94.7 2 10.1 -2.4 23.2 2.3 4.1 16.8 2.3 2.1 1.3 5.6 2.2 9.3 1.8 12.6 2.9 10.4 4.4 4.3 2.1 0.7 1.9 16.3 2.6

105.2 1.6 9.9 -1 95.2 1.9 10.1 -2.6 23.4 2.8 4.1 17 2.3 2.1 0.6 5.6 1.9 9.3 2 12.7 2.3 10.5 4.1 4.3 1.8 0.7 2.5 16.4 2.2

105.9 2 9.9 -1 96 2.3 10.1 -0.8 23.7 3.3 4.1 17.2 2.4 2.1 0.2 5.7 1.7 9.4 3.2 12.7 2 10.6 4.3 4.3 1.4 0.7 2.1 16.5 2.1

106.6 2.3 9.9 -0.4 96.7 2.6 10.2 -0.2 23.9 3.8 4.2 17.4 2.4 2.2 1.1 5.7 1.6 9.6 4.3 12.8 2.2 10.7 3.9 4.3 0.8 0.7 2 16.6 2.3

107.3 2.6 9.9 -0.6 97.5 3 10.2 1.1 24.1 3.9 4.2 17.5 2.4 2.2 1.9 5.7 1.7 9.8 5.6 12.9 2.4 10.7 3.5 4.4 0.8 0.7 1.9 16.7 2.6

108.1 2.8 9.9 -0.7 98.3 3.2 10.3 2 24.4 3.9 4.2 17.7 2.5 2.2 3.1 5.7 1.7 9.9 6.6 13 2.5 10.8 3.5 4.4 0.7 0.7 1.8 16.8 2.6

108.9 2.8 9.9 -0.5 99 3.2 10.4 2.4 24.5 3.3 4.2 17.8 2.5 2.2 3.4 5.8 2.1 10.1 7 13.1 2.9 11 3.3 4.4 0.8 0.7 -2.5 16.9 2.5

109.7 2.9 9.9 -0.1 99.9 3.2 10.5 3.4 24.7 3.2 4.3 18 2.5 2.2 3 5.8 2.2 10.3 7.2 13.2 2.9 11 3 4.4 0.8 0.7 0.4 17 2.4

110.5 3 9.9 0.2 100.6 3.3 10.6 4.1 24.9 3 4.3 18.1 2.5 2.2 3.1 5.9 2.4 10.5 7.1 13.2 2.5 11.1 3.2 4.4 0.7 0.8 3.6 17.1 2.4

111.3 3 9.9 0.5 101.4 3.2 10.8 4.7 25 2.7 4.3 18.2 2.6 2.3 3 5.9 2.7 10.6 7.1 13.3 2.2 11.2 3 4.4 1 0.8 7.3 17.2 2.4

112.1 3 9.9 0.6 102.2 3.2 10.9 4.7 25.1 2.5 4.3 18.3 2.6 2.3 3 5.9 2.9 10.8 6.6 13.3 2 11.2 2.6 4.4 1.1 0.9 25.5 17.3 2.5

8670.3 318.7 3.4 129.6 4 3.3 5198 5156 42

8729.9 321.1 3.3 130.5 4.1 3.5 5569 5348 221

8803.8 323.6 3.2 131.4 3.8 3.6 5105 4905 200

8878.9 326 3.1 132.3 3.3 3.7 4977 4789 188

8960.4 328.4 3 133.2 2.7 3.8 4681 4502 178

9066.5 330.6 2.9 134 2.7 3.8 4682 4516 166

9167 332.6 2.8 134.9 2.6 3.9 4666 4499 167

9271.2 334.7 2.7 135.7 2.6 3.9 4732 4564 168

9375.8 336.6 2.5 136.5 2.5 3.9 4815 4639 176

9484.8 338.5 2.4 137.4 2.5 3.9 4887 4708 180

9604 340.3 2.3 138.2 2.5 3.9 4956 4773 183

9718.7 342.2 2.3 139.1 2.5 3.9 4997 4816 181

9832.9 344.1 2.2 139.9 2.5 3.9 5037 4859 178

9950.5 346 2.2 140.7 2.4 3.8 5088 4910 178

*Quarterly at an annual rate

62

9.1 7 3.6 5.5 7.7 4.6 27.7 23.6 34.5 3.2

Florida & Metro Forecast

Oca l a

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

March 2007 Short-Term Forecast 1999 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

5.5 6.1 2.1 3.4 5.6 4.3 21.5 22 25.2 3.2

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

5.9 7.2 2.2 3.7 5.9 4.6 22.6 22.6 26 2.9

6.2 4.5 2.3 3.8 6 2.3 23.1 22.7 27 4

6.3 2.2 2.4 3.9 6.1 0.8 23 22.2 28.2 4.4

6.7 6.2 2.6 4 6.3 4.1 23.7 22.4 29.6 4.9

7.2 8 2.9 4.3 6.7 5.2 24.6 22.7 30.4 2.6

7.8 7.5 3.2 4.6 7 4.5 25.5 22.9 31.5 3.8

8.3 7.2 3.4 4.9 7.3 4.3 26.4 23.1 33.2 5.3

8.9 6.7 3.6 5.3 7.6 4.7 27.3 23.4 34.1 2.9

9.6 7.7 3.8 5.8 8 5.6 28.6 24 35.3 3.3

10.4 8.4 4.1 6.3 8.5 6.2 30.3 25 36.6 3.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

83.5 2.5 11.3 0.5 72.2 2.8 6.3 2.2 19.4 1.8 2.7 14.3 2.4 2.5 1.7 3.8 3.6 7.4 10.3 8.2 2 7.3 0.2 3.2 4.4 0.7 7.3 13.5 1.8

85.6 2.5 11.1 -1.8 74.5 3.2 6.3 0.7 20 3.4 2.8 15.1 2.2 2.6 3.8 3.9 1.1 7.7 4.2 8.5 4.1 7.1 -1.9 3.4 7.9 0.9 21.8 14.1 4.2

85.4 -0.2 9.9 -10.7 75.5 1.3 6.1 -2.6 20.3 1.3 3 14.9 2.4 2.4 -6.5 3.9 1.7 7.2 -6.4 9.2 7.7 7.6 6.1 3.5 1.9 0.7 -18.9 14.6 3.5

85.7 0.4 9.3 -5.5 76.4 1.2 6.4 4.9 20.1 -0.7 3.1 14.8 2.2 2.3 -4.5 4 1.1 7.2 0.4 9.7 5.3 7.6 0.3 3.6 3.6 0.7 2.3 14.7 0.7

88.6 3.4 9.2 -1 79.4 4 7.6 17.5 20.5 2 3.3 15.1 2.1 2.2 -5.1 4.3 9.2 7.6 4.9 10.5 8.5 7.7 0.9 3.6 -1.6 0.7 -2.3 14.7 0.5

94.6 6.7 9.6 4 85 7 9 18.7 21.3 3.7 3.6 15.6 2.1 2.2 1.1 4.9 12.4 8.2 7.4 11.1 6 8.7 13.1 3.8 7.7 0.7 0 15.1 2.3

100.1 5.8 9.9 3.5 90.1 6.1 9.7 8.4 22.5 5.7 3.9 16.4 2.2 2.1 -3 5.4 10.4 8.9 8.6 11.8 5.9 9.5 9.1 4.1 7.2 0.7 0.1 15.4 2.2

102.7 2.6 10.1 1.3 92.6 2.8 10.3 6.4 22.7 0.9 4 16.5 2.2 2.1 -1.4 5.5 2.4 9.1 2.3 12.2 3.3 9.9 4.5 4.2 2.8 0.7 -0.1 15.9 2.9

104.4 1.7 10 -1.1 94.5 2 10.1 -1.9 23.2 2.1 4.1 16.8 2.3 2.1 1.1 5.6 1.6 9.2 1.8 12.6 3.1 10.3 4.4 4.3 2 0.7 1.5 16.3 2.6

107 2.4 9.9 -0.7 97.1 2.8 10.2 0.5 24 3.7 4.2 17.5 2.4 2.2 1.6 5.7 1.7 9.7 4.9 12.9 2.2 10.7 3.8 4.3 0.9 0.7 1.9 16.7 2.4

110.1 2.9 9.9 0 100.2 3.2 10.6 3.7 24.8 3.1 4.3 18 2.5 2.2 3.1 5.8 2.4 10.4 7.1 13.2 2.6 11.1 3.1 4.4 0.8 0.7 2.2 17.1 2.4

5909.7 255.7 2 102.7 1.9 3.8 2832 2741 91

6083 260.9 2 109.2 6.4 4 2507 2441 66

6173.1 266.2 2 109.3 0.1 5 3246 3220 26

6356.4 273.6 2.8 110.2 0.9 5.8 5836 5342 494

6766.8 282.2 3.2 113.5 2.9 5.2 6832 6081 751

7429.5 292.9 3.8 118.5 4.5 4.5 5185 5096 89

8127.5 304.3 3.9 123.2 3.9 3.6 7284 6724 560

8574.1 314.8 3.4 127.4 3.4 3.1 7675 7317 358

8843.2 324.8 3.2 131.8 3.5 3.6 5083 4886 197

9220.1 333.6 2.7 135.3 2.6 3.9 4724 4555 169

9660.1 341.3 2.3 138.7 2.5 3.9 4969 4789 181

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

63

O r l a n d o – K i s s immee

P r o fi l e s

•

Orlando Regional Healthcare System – 11,093 employees University of Central Florida – 8,946 employees Central Florida Investments/Westgate Resorts – 7,500 employees Darden Restaurants, Inc. – 7,361 employees

The Orlando – Kissimmee MSA is comprised of Lake, • Orange, Osceola, and Seminole counties. Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to • numerous tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World and numerous other Disney enterprises, Universal Studios, • and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic, the Orlando Predators arena football team, and Atlanta Braves Sources: Metro Orlando Economic Development spring training at Disney’s Wide World of Sports. The Commission & Orange County Library System University of Central Florida, the nation’s seventh-largest university, and many other places of higher education also Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s reside in the MSA. Quick Facts: • MSA population estimate of 1,933,255 as of July 1, 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Lake County population estimate of 277,035 as of July 1, 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Orange County population estimate of 1,023,022 as of July 1, 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Osceola County population estimate of 231,578 as of July 1, 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Seminole County population estimate of 401,619 as of July 1, 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force for the MSA of 1,074,583 in December 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 2.9%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 30,721 unemployed people in the Orlando MSA. (Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Walt Disney Co. – 56,800 employees • Orange County Public Schools – 24,063 employees • Florida Hospital (Avent Health System) – 19,270 employees • Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – 16,757 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 15,606 employees • Universal Orlando – 12,500 employees 64

Florida & Metro Forecast

The Orlando – Kissimmee metropolitan statistical area is expected to have a large growth in personal income through 2009, with an average increase of 7.5% annually.

Employment growth in the Orlando – Kissimmee MSA tops the forecasted MSAs with an average growth 3.5% annually. Professional and business services are expected to grow an average of 7.3% a year through 2009. The education and health sector is predicted to grow 3.7% annually while construction and mining is predicted to grow only 1.4% annually.

Population growth in the Orlando – Kissimmee MSA is expected to average 2.8% annually through 2009; only the Naples MSA bests the Orlando – Kissimmee MSA in population growth. The metro’s unemployment rate of 3.2% is expected to remain below the state average of 3.6%.

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s December resort tax collections set record • December resort tax collections were up 12.9% over the previous year when comparing the first five cents of the resort tax.

• In a statement, Orange County Comptroller Martha Haynie noted that the $10.4 million was the largest total ever collected for the month of December.

• In addition, this year, the county collected $2,095,200 from the penny increase for a total collection of $12,571,400 in December.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, February 2, 2007

O r l a n d o – K i s s immee

BankAtlantic to hold grand openings for first two branches • The bank opened a Gateway Commons location, 1475 E. Osceola Parkway in Kissimmee, and its branch at 1701 S. Semoran Blvd. in Orlando on Feb. 3 and Feb. 4.

• The locations are two of the first four branches that the Fort Lauderdale-based bank plans to open in the Orlando area in 2007.

• The bank expects to open more than 20 branches in the Orlando area in the next several years.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, January 30, 2007 Kissimmee Gateway sees surge in corporate jet traffic • Kissimmee Gateway Airport reports that corporate jet traffic jumped 21% in 2006, setting a new record.

• A total of 4,241 corporate jet aircraft used the airport last year, compared with 3,514 such aircraft in 2005.

• The airport also reported record fuel sales of more than 2.3 million gallons sold in 2006, an increase of 9% compared to the prior year’s sales of 2.1 million gallons.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, January 16, 2007 Laying groundwork for ‘medical city’ • In 2009, the University of Central Florida medical school and the Burnham Institute for Medical Research are expected to open at Lake Nona.

• Southeast Orlando ‘medical city’ will also include an undergraduate college for life sciences, a Veterans Affairs hospital, and a research facility run by both Burnham and the University of Florida.

• With the continuing shortage of physicians, both Orlando Regional and Florida Hospital will begin new teaching residency programs this year.

Source: The Orlando Sentinel, January 8, 2007

• •

Its international traffic for the year declined 2.09% to 2.11 million passengers.

Aircraft operations at OIA increased 1.89% to 354,093, while they increased 5.48% to 164,715 at Orlando Executive Airport.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, December 15, 2006

Orlando apartment vacancies fall to six-year low • The Orlando apartment vacancy rate fell to 4.7% in the third quarter, a level not seen since the end of 2000, according to Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Brokerage Co.’s Orlando Apartment Research Report.

• The decline is attributed to a significant inventory reduction, strong tenant demand due to job and population growth, and declining housing affordability.

• Asking rents will rise 6.8% this year to an average of $875 per month during 2005, the report says.

• The report further predicts that apartment completions will fall to 1,200 units this year, down from 2,500 units in 2005.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, November 11, 2006 Orange resort tax collections up slightly in November • Orange County’s tax on short-term rentals, such as hotels, reversed a one-month downward trend, climbing 1% in November.

• The county increased the tax from 5% to 6% starting in October at the beginning of the current fiscal year. Until a full year of the sixth cent is completed, those year-to-year figures only compare the 5% collections.

• The 5% total in November was $10,576,300 compared with $10,472,200 a year ago. The new extra penny brought in another $2,115,200.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, January 2, 2007

OIA traffic up nearly 3% for fiscal year • Traffic at Orlando International Airport increased nearly 3% to 34.7 million passengers for the fiscal year ending September 30.

• The airport also experienced a 3.26% increase in domestic passenger traffic for the fiscal year, reaching 32.6 million passengers.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

65

O r l a n d o – K i s s immee Orlando - Kissimee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

(percent)

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Orlando Real Gross Metro Product 100000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

90000.0 80000.0 70000.0 60000.0 50000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate

40000.0

Orlando Real Personal Income

Orlando Payroll Employment 1300.0

(Thousands)

1200.0

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

1000.0

4.0%

900.0

2.0%

800.0

66

10.0% 8.0%

1100.0

700.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Gross Metro Product

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 OrlandoPayroll Employment

Florida & Metro Forecast

0.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Personal Income

O r l a n d o – K i s s immee

Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

March 2007 Short-Term Forecast* 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

67 7.7 43.6 23.3 58.2 5.7 33.1 28.8 39.7 4.2

68.2 6.3 44.4 23.8 58.9 4.1 33.4 28.8 40.1 2

69.3 7 45.1 24.2 59.5 5.3 33.7 28.9 40.4 3.2

70.4 6.9 45.7 24.7 60.1 5.2 33.9 29 40.7 3.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

71.6 6.9 46.4 25.1 60.8 4.5 34.3 29.1 41 3.3

72.9 6.9 47.2 25.6 61.6 4.7 34.7 29.3 41.4 3.2

74.2 7.2 48.1 26.2 62.5 5.1 35.1 29.5 41.7 3.3

75.7 7.6 49 26.7 63.4 5.5 35.5 29.8 42.1 3.6

77.2 7.8 49.9 27.3 64.3 5.7 36 30 42.5 3.6

78.7 8 50.8 27.8 65.3 5.9 36.5 30.3 42.9 3.8

80.3 8.2 51.8 28.5 66.3 6 37 30.6 43.4 4

81.9 8.2 52.8 29.1 67.3 6.1 37.5 30.8 43.8 3.9

83.5 8.3 53.8 29.7 68.3 6.1 38 31.1 44.2 4

85.

8.

54.

30.

69.

38.

31.

44.

1095 3.7 46.1 1 1048.9 3.8 85.7 4.9 199.3 1.4 47.7 123.9 27.7 27.2 0.9 67.1 5 201.7 6.6 107.1 5.3 193.9 2.8 50.9 2 11.8 0.2 104.3 4.1

1103.7 3.3 46 0.4 1057.7 3.5 85 0.5 200.7 1 48.1 124.7 28 27.3 1.4 67.7 4.4 204.6 6.5 108.5 5.9 195.7 2.9 51.4 3.1 11.8 1.4 105 4.1

1112.3 3.4 45.6 -0.5 1066.7 3.6 84.6 -1.2 201.7 1.3 48.3 125.3 28.2 27.3 0.9 68.1 4.4 208.2 6.9 109.5 4.8 197.7 4 52 3.6 11.9 1.8 105.5 3.7

1119.6 3.2 45.6 -2 1074.1 3.4 84.3 -1.7 203.3 2.7 48.7 126.2 28.5 27.3 0.4 68.5 3.2 211.5 6.5 110.6 4.8 198.3 3.4 52.5 4.1 12 1.5 105.8 2.6

1128.2 3 45.6 -1.1 1082.6 3.2 84.2 -1.8 205.2 3 49.1 127.5 28.8 27.1 -0.1 68.8 2.6 214.5 6.3 111.5 4.2 200 3.1 52.8 3.7 12 2.1 106.5 2.1

1138.3 3.1 45.6 -1 1092.8 3.3 84.4 -0.7 207.4 3.4 49.5 129 29.1 27.2 -0.2 69.2 2.2 218.3 6.7 112.2 3.4 201.9 3.2 52.9 2.9 12 1.8 107.1 2

1148.8 3.3 45.5 -0.3 1103.3 3.4 84.8 0.3 209.3 3.7 49.9 130.2 29.4 27.5 0.7 69.4 1.9 222.8 7 113 3.2 203.6 2.9 53.1 2 12.1 1.7 107.7 2.2

1159 3.5 45.4 -0.4 1113.6 3.7 85.6 1.6 211.1 3.8 50.3 131.2 29.8 27.7 1.4 69.8 1.9 227.9 7.7 114.1 3.2 203.5 2.6 53.3 1.6 12.1 1.6 108.4 2.4

1169.6 3.7 45.4 -0.5 1124.2 3.8 86.3 2.6 212.9 3.8 50.7 132.4 30.1 27.8 2.5 70.2 1.9 232.1 8.2 115 3.1 205.2 2.6 53.4 1.2 12.2 1.5 109 2.4

1180.8 3.7 45.5 -0.1 1135.3 3.9 87.3 3.4 214.3 3.3 51.2 133.1 30.5 28 2.8 70.6 2.1 236.5 8.3 116 3.3 207.2 2.6 53.5 1.2 12.2 1.5 109.7 2.5

1192 3.8 45.6 0.3 1146.4 3.9 88.3 4.2 216 3.2 51.6 134.1 30.8 28.2 2.5 71 2.2 241.2 8.2 116.8 3.4 208.5 2.4 53.7 1.1 12.3 1.5 110.4 2.4

1202.9 3.8 45.7 0.7 1157.2 3.9 89.6 4.6 217.6 3 52.1 134.9 31.3 28.4 2.7 71.5 2.4 246.1 8 117.6 3.1 209.2 2.8 53.9 1.1 12.4 1.8 111.1 2.5

1214 3.8 45.9 1 1168.1 3.9 90.8 5.2 219 2.9 52.6 135.7 31.6 28.6 2.7 72 2.6 250.5 7.9 118.2 2.8 210.6 2.7 54.1 1.3 12.5 2.7 111.8 2.6

1224.

3.

4 1.

1178.

3.

9 5.

220.

2.

5 136.

31.

28.

2.

72.

2.

254.

7.

118.

2.

211.

2.

54.

1.

13.

7.

112.

2.

80195.3 2025.6 3.3 1075.9 4.7 3 27047 20803 6244

81003.6 2041.5 3.3 1083.4 4.6 3.1 24247 17898 6349

81921 2057.3 3.2 1090.8 4 3.2 23455 16994 6461

82821.7 2072.8 3.2 1098.2 3.4 3.3 22975 16507 6468

83733.8 2087.6 3.1 1105.4 2.7 3.3 22171 15815 6355

84858 2102.1 3 1112.6 2.7 3.3 21939 15808 6131

85949.6 2116.1 2.9 1119.8 2.7 3.3 22036 15863 6173

87094.7 2129.7 2.7 1126.7 2.6 3.3 22435 16147 6288

88211.9 2143 2.7 1133.9 2.6 3.3 22767 16354 6413

89428 2156.3 2.6 1140.6 2.5 3.2 23037 16594 6443

90672.7 2169.7 2.5 1147.5 2.5 3.2 23191 16741 6450

91895.6 2183.1 2.5 1154.2 2.4 3.2 23521 17020 6501

93110 2196.5 2.5 1160.9 2.4 3.2 23783 17303 6480

94332.

2210.

2.

1167.

2.

3.

2403 1755 647

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

67

O r l a n d o – K i s s immee

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

March 2007 Short-Term Forecast 1999 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

41.2 7.8 26.3 14.9 42.2 6 25.5 26.1 29.8 4

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

44.7 8.6 28.7 16.1 44.7 6 26.9 26.9 31.3 5.2

46.4 3.6 29.6 16.7 45.4 1.5 27.1 26.5 32.2 2.8

48.3 4.3 30.6 17.7 46.7 2.8 27.4 26.5 33.5 4

50.8 5.2 32.3 18.5 48.1 3.1 28.1 26.6 34.6 3.3

55.1 8.4 35.4 19.7 50.8 5.7 29.5 27.2 36 4.2

60.2 9.2 39.1 21 53.9 6.1 31 27.8 37.5 4.1

65.4 8.8 42.7 22.7 57.1 5.9 32.7 28.5 39.4 5

69.8 6.8 45.4 24.4 59.8 4.8 33.8 29 40.5 3

75 7.4 48.5 26.4 63 5.3 35.3 29.7 41.9 3.4

81.1 8.2 52.3 28.8 66.8 6 37.3 30.7 43.6 3.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

68

Florida & Metro Forecast

878.3 4.6 51.9 0.3 826.4 4.9 53.5 6.8 172.4 4.4 37.2 106.1 29.1 24.8 7.6 53.3 5.1 135 8.2 83.4 0.6 176.8 5.3 38.1 4.7 9.6 0.8 79.5 2.9

911.5 3.8 51 -1.6 860.4 4.1 55.6 3.9 179.7 4.2 40.6 109.6 29.5 25.5 2.8 54.4 2.1 151.3 12.1 85.5 2.5 177 0.1 39.7 4.2 10.2 6.6 81.6 2.7

915.9 0.5 48.1 -5.7 867.8 0.9 55.7 0.2 178.2 -0.8 41.9 106.7 29.6 25 -1.9 54.2 -0.4 159.1 5.2 87 1.7 170.6 -3.6 42.4 7 10.3 0.7 85.3 4.5

908.2 -0.8 44.4 -7.7 863.8 -0.5 56.8 2 171.6 -3.7 39.6 104.8 27.3 24.5 -1.9 54.7 1 155.8 -2.1 89.4 2.7 165 -3.3 45.4 6.9 10.4 1.2 90.2 5.8

929.2 2.3 42.2 -5 887 2.7 61.4 8 173.4 1 40 107.4 25.9 25.1 2.3 57.4 4.8 156.9 0.7 93.6 4.7 169.9 3 45.7 0.7 11.1 7 92.6 2.6

978.5 5.3 43.1 2.2 935.3 5.4 69.6 13.4 181.6 4.7 41.9 113.4 26.2 25.8 2.8 59.5 3.6 168.2 7.2 97.3 4 179.3 5.5 47.5 4 11.2 1.1 95.3 3

1038.8 6.2 45.3 4.9 993.5 6.2 79 13.5 193.6 6.6 44.9 121 27.7 26.6 3.4 63 5.9 185.1 10 100.8 3.6 185.3 3.4 49.4 3.9 11.8 5.2 98.8 3.6

1081 4.1 46.1 1.8 1034.9 4.2 85.4 8.1 198.8 2.7 47.1 123.9 27.8 27.1 1.7 65.9 4.6 196.8 6.4 104.9 4 191.4 3.3 50.3 2 11.7 -0.9 102.5 3.7

1116 3.2 45.7 -0.8 1070.3 3.4 84.5 -1 202.7 2 48.5 125.9 28.4 27.3 0.6 68.3 3.6 209.7 6.5 110 4.9 197.9 3.4 52.2 3.6 11.9 1.7 105.7 3.1

1153.9 3.4 45.5 -0.5 1108.5 3.6 85.3 0.9 210.2 3.7 50.1 130.7 29.6 27.6 1.1 69.6 2 225.3 7.4 113.6 3.2 203.5 2.8 53.2 1.9 12.1 1.6 108.1 2.3

1197.4 3.8 45.7 0.4 1151.8 3.9 89 4.3 216.7 3.1 51.9 134.4 31.1 28.3 2.7 71.3 2.3 243.6 8.1 117.1 3.1 208.9 2.6 53.8 1.1 12.3 1.9 110.8 2.5

53871.9 1614.7 2.7 921.7 4.2 2.8 29028 17309 11719

56296 1663 3 895.2 -2.9 3.1 26462 16078 10383

57778.3 1712.9 3 910.2 1.7 4.2 24343 17524 6818

58748 1760.5 2.8 914.4 0.5 5.7 25493 17843 7651

61980.4 1809 2.8 934.3 2.2 5.2 28075 22679 5396

67193.3 1870.3 3.4 967.7 3.6 4.4 32965 26701 6265

74041.9 1938 3.6 1010.2 4.4 3.5 34375 27325 7050

79003.8 2001.1 3.3 1055.6 4.5 3 31552 25775 5777

82370 2064.8 3.2 1094.5 3.7 3.2 23212 16803 6408

86528.6 2122.7 2.8 1123.2 2.6 3.3 22294 16043 6252

91276.6 2176.4 2.5 1150.8 2.5 3.2 23383 16915 6469

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s v i l l e

P r o fi l e s The Palm Bay – Melbourne – Titusville MSA is comprised of Brevard County only. Typically known as “Florida’s Space Coast,” this area is home to the Kennedy Space Center. Located in the central part of Florida’s east coast, the region is home to Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, Patrick Air Force Base, and government contractors such as Harris Corporation. Like much of Florida, this area is growing fast; Port Canaveral is now a leading cruise-ship port.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 531,250 as of July 1, 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 261,914 in December 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3.2%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 8,361 unemployed people. (Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • United Space Alliance, LLC - 6,500 employees • Harris Corporation - 6,500 employees • Health First - 6,100 employees • Space Gateway Support - 3,000 employees • Wuesthoff Health System - 2,500 employees • Northrop Grumman Corporation - 2,000 employees • The Boeing Company - 1,800 employees • Sea Ray Boats, Inc. - 1,293 employees • MC Assembly - 1,160 employees • Rockwell Collins, Inc. - 1,120 employees Source: Brevard Economic Development Council

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s Total personal income growth for the Palm Bay – Melbourne – Titusville metropolitan statistical area is expected to be 6.9% annually; this is on par with the state’s average annual personal income growth.

Professional and business services are predicted to grow, on average, 4% annually, while the leisure and hospitality sector should experience an average growth rate of 3.1%.

The trade, transportation, and utilities sector is expected to grow by 2.3%.

The unemployment rate of the Palm Bay – Melbourne – Titusville MSA is projected to average 3.7% through 2009, 10 basis points more than Florida. Population growth is expected to average 2.0% annually, slightly greater than state growth.

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Harris Corp. sets sights on hiring • Company officials said that Harris Corp. has plans to add 300 new jobs in Melbourne-Palm Bay by the middle of this year.

• Melbourne-based Harris is the largest high-tech company in central Florida.

• Harris employs about 6,500 people in MelbournePalm Bay, an increase of 30% since 2002 when the Iraq war began.

• In central Florida, Harris added a cumulative total of 1,400 jobs in 2003 and 2004. It added only 100 jobs in 2005 and none in 2006.

Source: The Orlando Sentinel, February 3, 2007 Space Center to be host site for global space expo • Kennedy Space Center will host the inaugural World Space Expo, scheduled for Nov. 3-11.

• Numerous aerospace contractors and privatesector companies from around the world will bring together the largest display of space artifacts, hardware, and personalities ever assembled in one location.

• The expo also will feature interactive exhibits and programs, in addition to the space-related artifacts and hardware that will be on display.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, February 2, 2007 Palm Bay hospital growing • Palm Bay Community Hospital is scheduled to double in size within the next two years.

• When complete, the $68 million project will include 40 private-patient rooms and 10 observation beds.

• The board of directors already approved $4.5 million for site work to prepare the land.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

69

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s v i l l e

•

The project is scheduled for completion in late 2008.

Source: Florida Today, December 5, 2006

Priced out of the market - Most Brevard families couldn’t afford to buy their homes at today’s prices • The median price of all homes, including houses, condos or townhomes, has almost doubled in the past five years from $98,400 to $193,000.

• In 2000, a family earning the 2000 median income could afford to comfortably buy a home in 223 of the county’s 259 neighborhoods. Today, a family earning the median income can only afford a home in 126 of the county’s 262 neighborhoods.

• Realtors are directing more buyers to Titusville and neighboring Port St. John due to the price increases.

• Due to the increase in housing prices, businesses may find that they have to pay more to attract good employees.

Source: Florida Today, November 28, 2006

70

Florida & Metro Forecast

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s v i l l e Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

0.5

1.0

(percent)

20000.0

2.5

(Millions 2000 $)

18000.0 16000.0 14000.0 12000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 FL Unemployment Rate Palm Bay Unemployment Rate

10000.0

(Thousands)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Gross Metro Product

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Personal Income

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Payroll Employment 240.0 230.0 220.0 210.0 200.0 190.0 180.0 170.0

2.0

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

1.5

10.0%

(percent change year ago)

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Palm Bay Payroll Employment

0.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Personal Income

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

71

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

March 2007 Short-Term Forecast* 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

18.1 6.2 9.4 8.7 15.8 4.2 33.2 28.9 42.7 4.2

18.4 5.5 9.5 8.9 15.9 3.3 33.5 29 43.1 2

18.7 6 9.6 9.1 16 4.4 33.8 29.1 43.4 3.1

18.9 5.9 9.7 9.2 16.2 4.3 34.2 29.2 43.7 3.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

19.6 6.4 9.9 9.6 16.6 4.3 35 29.6 44.4 3.1

19.9 6.8 10.1 9.8 16.8 4.7 35.4 29.8 44.8 3.2

20.3 7.3 10.3 10.1 17 5.2 36 30.1 45.3 3.5

20.7 7.5 10.4 10.3 17.3 5.5 36.4 30.4 45.7 3.6

21.1 7.6 10.6 10.5 17.5 5.5 36.9 30.6 46.1 3.8

21.5 7.9 10.8 10.7 17.8 5.8 37.5 30.9 46.6 4

22 8.1 11 11 18 5.9 38.1 31.3 47.1 4

22.4 8.2 11.1 11.2 18.3 6.1 38.6 31.5 47.5 4

22.

8.

11.

11.

18.

6.

39.

31.

4

216.7 1.7 22.5 -1.8 194.2 2.1 18.1 1.4 37.7 1.7 5.5 28.1 4.1 2.8 -0.4 8.4 1.9 40.3 3.5 27.8 1.7 22 2.7 8.3 -0.4 6.1 1.4 22.6 2.6

217.1 1.6 22.4 -2.4 194.7 2 17.9 -0.6 37.9 1.9 5.5 28.2 4.1 2.8 -0.5 8.4 1.7 40.2 2.9 28 2.3 22.2 3 8.4 1.5 6.2 0.6 22.8 2.6

217.6 1.5 22.2 -1 195.4 1.8 17.8 -2.1 38 1.9 5.5 28.3 4.1 2.8 0.5 8.5 1.5 40.4 1.9 28.1 2.3 22.5 4.2 8.4 1.3 6.2 0.6 22.8 2.6

218.3 1.1 22.3 -1.4 196 1.4 17.7 -2.8 38.2 1.8 5.5 28.5 4.2 2.8 0.9 8.5 1.9 40.6 0.8 28.2 2.4 22.6 3.6 8.4 1.1 6.2 1 22.9 1.9

219.2 1.2 22.3 -0.7 196.9 1.4 17.6 -2.9 38.5 2.3 5.6 28.8 4.2 2.8 0.2 8.5 1.5 40.7 1.1 28.3 1.8 22.8 3.4 8.4 0.8 6.2 1.5 23 1.5

220.6 1.6 22.3 -0.5 198.3 1.8 17.7 -1.1 38.9 2.9 5.6 29.1 4.2 2.8 -0.1 8.5 1.2 41.1 2.3 28.4 1.5 23 3.5 8.4 0.5 6.2 1.2 23.1 1.5

222 2 22.3 0.1 199.7 2.2 17.7 -0.4 39.3 3.4 5.7 29.3 4.3 2.8 0.8 8.6 1.1 41.7 3.4 28.5 1.7 23.2 3.2 8.4 -0.1 6.3 1.1 23.2 1.7

223.5 2.4 22.2 -0.1 201.2 2.7 17.8 0.8 39.5 3.5 5.7 29.5 4.4 2.9 1.7 8.6 1.3 42.4 4.6 28.8 2 23.2 2.8 8.4 -0.2 6.3 1 23.3 2.1

225 2.6 22.3 -0.2 202.8 3 17.9 1.7 39.9 3.5 5.7 29.8 4.4 2.9 2.9 8.6 1.3 43 5.6 28.9 2 23.4 2.8 8.4 -0.2 6.3 0.9 23.5 2.1

226.6 2.7 22.3 0.1 204.3 3 18.1 2.1 40.1 2.9 5.8 29.9 4.4 2.9 3.3 8.7 1.7 43.6 6.1 29.1 2.5 23.6 2.7 8.4 0 6.2 -0.4 23.6 2

228.3 2.8 22.3 0.4 206 3.1 18.3 3.1 40.4 2.8 5.8 30.1 4.5 2.9 2.8 8.7 1.8 44.4 6.3 29.2 2.5 23.8 2.4 8.4 0 6.3 0.5 23.7 1.9

230 2.9 22.4 0.6 207.6 3.2 18.5 3.8 40.6 2.6 5.9 30.2 4.5 2.9 2.8 8.8 2 45.1 6.2 29.4 2.1 23.8 2.6 8.4 0 6.4 1.7 23.8 1.8

231.6 2.9 22.4 0.8 209.2 3.2 18.7 4.3 40.8 2.3 6 30.4 4.6 3 2.8 8.8 2.3 45.7 6.2 29.4 1.8 23.9 2.4 8.4 0.3 6.5 3.5 23.9 1.9

233.

2.

22.

0.

210.

3.

18.

4.

40.

2.

17108.6 545.6 1.9 262.4 3.6 3.3 4577 3723 854

17191 548.4 1.9 263.9 3.4 3.4 4287 3446 841

17306.7 551.3 2 265.4 3 3.6 4401 3408 992

17428.4 554 2 266.9 2.7 3.7 4616 3547 1069

17561.4 556.7 2 268.4 2.3 3.8 4717 3651 1066

17744.5 559.5 2 269.8 2.2 3.8 4970 3849 1121

17922.7 562.3 2 271.2 2.2 3.8 5061 3929 1132

18110.1 565.2 2 272.6 2.1 3.8 5186 4044 1142

18296.2 568 2 274 2.1 3.8 5301 4120 1181

18493.5 570.8 2 275.3 2.1 3.8 5399 4197 1202

18712.3 573.8 2 276.7 2 3.8 5481 4269 1212

18921.6 577 2.1 278.1 2 3.8 5536 4321 1214

19128.7 580.1 2.1 279.4 2 3.8 5578 4372 1206

19331.

583.

2.

280.

*Quarterly at an annual rate

72

19.2 6.2 9.8 9.4 16.4 3.8 34.6 29.4 44.1 3.3

Florida & Metro Forecast

30.

4.

2.

8.

2.

46.

5.

29.

1.

24.

1.

8.

0.

6.

9.

2 1.

3.

562 442 120

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

March 2007 Short-Term Forecast 1999 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

11.6 4.2 5.8 5.8 11.9 2.5 24.6 25.2 30.7 2.4

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

12.9 10.8 6.4 6.5 12.9 8.1 26.8 26.8 32.8 6.8

13.3 3.6 6.7 6.6 13.1 1.5 27.3 26.8 34.1 3.7

13.9 3.9 6.9 6.9 13.4 2.5 27.9 26.9 35.2 3.4

14.5 4.9 7.4 7.2 13.8 2.8 28.7 27.1 36.8 4.4

15.6 7.6 8.1 7.6 14.4 4.9 30.1 27.8 38.7 5.1

16.7 6.5 8.7 8 14.9 3.6 31.3 28.1 40.4 4.5

17.8 6.6 9.2 8.5 15.5 3.7 32.8 28.6 42.3 4.8

18.8 5.9 9.6 9.2 16.1 3.9 34 29.2 43.6 2.9

20.1 7 10.2 10 16.9 4.9 35.7 30 45.1 3.4

21.7 7.9 10.9 10.9 17.9 5.8 37.8 31.1 46.8 4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

185 1.3 25.7 -3.5 159.3 2.1 11.5 3.6 33.5 4.4 5 25.4 3.1 2.8 -5.9 6.6 2.7 31.6 0.3 22.8 2.8 18.2 2.2 7.4 1.3 5.5 -1.5 19.4 1.8

191.5 3.5 24.8 -3.4 166.7 4.6 12.5 8.5 34.1 1.6 5 26.2 2.8 3.1 8.5 6.7 1.8 34.7 9.8 23.9 4.9 18.1 -0.3 7.7 3.7 5.7 3.9 20.3 4.4

193.3 0.9 23.8 -4 169.5 1.6 13.2 5.1 34.8 2.1 5 26.8 3 3.1 1.1 7.1 5.7 34.1 -1.6 24.4 2.1 18.6 2.4 7.5 -2 5.8 1 21 3.4

192.5 -0.4 22.9 -3.9 169.6 0.1 12.7 -3.1 34.8 -0.1 4.8 26.6 3.3 2.8 -10.8 7.3 3.4 33.4 -2.2 25.3 3.5 18.6 0.1 7.6 1 5.7 -1.8 21.6 3

196.6 2.1 22.8 -0.5 173.8 2.5 13 2.4 34.2 -1.6 4.6 26.3 3.3 2.8 0 7.3 0.7 34.7 4.1 26.7 5.7 18.9 1.8 8.2 8.5 5.7 1.2 22.1 2.6

205.3 4.4 23.6 3.7 181.6 4.5 14.8 13.6 35.5 3.7 4.7 27.2 3.6 2.8 -0.9 7.8 5.7 37.1 6.8 26.8 0.3 19.8 4.6 8.4 1.5 5.9 3.9 22.9 3.2

211.2 2.9 23.5 -0.5 187.7 3.3 17 14.9 36.9 4.1 5.2 27.7 3.9 2.7 -0.6 8.2 5.8 38.6 4.1 27.1 1.2 20.8 5 8.2 -1.7 6 1.6 22 -3.6

215.2 1.9 22.6 -3.8 192.6 2.6 18.1 6.4 37.4 1.3 5.4 28 4 2.8 2.3 8.3 1.4 39.8 3.2 27.5 1.5 21.7 4.6 8.3 0.9 6.1 1.7 22.4 1.6

218 1.3 22.3 -1.4 195.7 1.7 17.7 -2.1 38.1 2 5.5 28.5 4.2 2.8 0.3 8.5 1.7 40.5 1.7 28.1 2.2 22.5 3.6 8.4 1.2 6.2 1 22.9 2.1

222.8 2.2 22.3 -0.2 200.5 2.4 17.8 0.2 39.4 3.3 5.7 29.4 4.3 2.9 1.3 8.6 1.2 42.1 4 28.6 1.8 23.2 3.1 8.4 0 6.3 1 23.3 1.8

229.1 2.9 22.4 0.5 206.7 3.1 18.4 3.3 40.4 2.6 5.9 30.1 4.5 2.9 2.9 8.7 2 44.7 6.2 29.3 2.2 23.8 2.5 8.4 0 6.4 1.3 23.7 1.9

12274.3 473 1 215.4 0.8 4.1 4647 3550 1097

12732 479.1 1.3 232 7.7 3.6 4405 3553 852

13065.2 487.7 1.8 235.7 1.6 4.4 5120 4525 595

13391.8 496.8 1.9 237.2 0.6 5.7 6683 5196 1488

14016.7 506.9 2 242 2 5.1 6228 5672 556

15094.5 519.7 2.5 248.6 2.7 4.4 8385 6438 1948

16204.6 531.7 2.3 252.3 1.5 3.6 8601 7317 1284

16943.5 541.7 1.9 258.7 2.5 3.1 5917 4925 992

17371.9 552.6 2 266.2 2.9 3.6 4505 3513 992

18018.4 563.7 2 271.9 2.1 3.8 5129 3985 1144

18814 575.4 2.1 277.4 2 3.8 5498 4290 1209

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

73

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Pensacola – Ferry Pass – Brent MSA is comprised of Escambia County and Santa Rosa County. Located in the northwest corner of the state bordering Alabama, this region is home to the Pensacola Naval Air Station, Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval Aviation. This area has been referred to as the “Cradle of Naval Aviation.”

The Pensacola – Ferry Pass – Brent metropolitan statistical area is predicted to have average annual wage growth of 3.3% through 2009.

Professional and business services are predicted to witness the greatest average annual growth in the Pensacola MSA; the sector is expected to see growth of 4%. The leisure and hospitality sector is expected to experience 2.2% annual growth with trade, with transportation and utilities anticipated to average 2% growth.

Through 2009, the Pensacola – Ferry Pass – Brent MSA is projected to experience an unemployment rate on slightly below the predicted unemployment rate of Florida.

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 439,877 as of July 1, 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Escambia County population estimate of 296,772 as of July 1, 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Santa Rosa County population estimate of 143,105 as of July 1, 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 206,600 in December 2006 for the MSA (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3.0%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 6,209 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Local Government - 15,790 employees • Federal Government - 7,403 employees • State Government - 5,970 employees • Sacred Heart Health System - 3,500 employees • Baptist Health Care - 3,470 employees • University of West Florida - 2,267 employees • Solutia, Inc. - 1,800 employees • Lakeview -1500 employees • Gulf Power Company - 1,400 employees • West Florida Hospital - 1,200 employees Source: Greater Pensacola Chamber of Commerce

74

Florida & Metro Forecast

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Donations for new maritime museum • More than half of the $9 million in private donations needed for a new maritime museum have been raised.

• Bob Rosasco pledged $100,000 to the University of West Florida Foundation. That donation and a $100,000 matching grant will be used to build a conference room at the Vice Adm. John H. Fetterman State of Florida Maritime Museum and Research Center.

• Operated under the umbrella of the University of West Florida, the maritime museum will be the first of its kind sponsored by the state.

• An estimated 300,000 people a year will visit the museum, which is scheduled to open in 2009.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, January 24, 2007 ECUA asks for $115 million • The Emerald Coast Utilities Authority (ECUA) wants the city and county to fund a new sewage plant if FEMA grants fall through.

• The Federal Emergency Management Agency has already approved a $135 million upgrade to the existing plant.

• The state has pledged $24 million, and the ECUA will contribute another $24 million.

• The ECUA has already voted to purchase more than 1,900 acres of land in central Escambia for $12.9 million as a home for the new plant.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, November 20, 2006

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

High taxes hurting businesses • In Escambia County, property tax revenue will be up $28 million, or 28.13% this year.

• In Santa Rosa County, revenue will be up $15 million, a more than 30% increase over last year.

• Many residents are concerned that property taxes will force many of the family-run businesses to close and deter people who may have considered relocating to Pensacola.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, November 19, 2006 North Escambia growth problem • Development experts believe an extra 75,000 people will move to Pensacola by 2030.

• Current residents hope that this will speed up road construction and bring in big businesses like WalMart and Home Depot.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, October 22, 2006 $100 million wish lists revealed • Escambia County revealed a $100 million state and federal wish list.

• Items include a $35-million regional emergency radio system, a $25-million facility for mentally-ill inmates, and a $15-million training facility for law enforcement.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, October 6, 2006 Rebuild Northwest Florida gets $1.5 million • Florida’s chief financial officer presented Rebuild Northwest Florida, a nonprofit organization, with $1.5 million to help strengthen 1,000 homes against hurricanes.

• These improvements to low-income households could help reduce rising insurance rates.

• Rebuild is one of 12 nonprofits statewide to share $8.1 million through partnerships forged with the My Safe Florida Home program.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, October 4, 2006

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

75

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

(percent)

0.3

0.6

1.2

1.5

Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product 16000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

15000.0 14000.0 13000.0 12000.0 11000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 FL Unemployment Rate Pensacola Unemployment Rate

10000.0

(Thousands)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Gross Metro Product

Pensacola Real Personal Income

Pensacola Payroll Employment 185.0 180.0 175.0 170.0 165.0 160.0 155.0 150.0 145.0

0.9

7.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Pensacola Payroll Employment

76

Florida & Metro Forecast

0.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Personal Income

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

March 2007 Short-Term Forecast* 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

13.2 5.9 6.5 6.6 11.5 4 29.7 25.8 35.2 4.2

13.4 5.3 6.6 6.8 11.5 3.1 30 25.9 35.5 1.9

13.5 5.8 6.7 6.9 11.6 4.1 30.3 26 35.7 3

13.7 5.4 6.7 7 11.7 3.8 30.6 26.2 36 3.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

13.9 5.6 6.8 7.1 11.8 3.3 31 26.3 36.3 3.1

14.1 5.7 6.9 7.3 12 3.6 31.4 26.5 36.5 3

14.4 6.1 7 7.4 12.1 4 31.8 26.8 36.8 3.1

14.6 6.6 7.1 7.6 12.3 4.5 32.3 27 37.2 3.4

14.9 6.8 7.2 7.7 12.4 4.8 32.7 27.3 37.5 3.5

15.1 6.9 7.3 7.9 12.5 4.8 33.1 27.5 37.9 3.7

15.4 7.1 7.4 8 12.7 5 33.7 27.8 38.3 3.9

15.7 7.3 7.5 8.2 12.9 5.2 34.2 28.1 38.6 3.8

16 7.5 7.6 8.4 13.1 5.3 34.7 28.4 39 3.9

16.3 7.6 7.7 8.6 13.2 5.4 35.2 28.6 39.4 3.9

173.3 1.9 7.6 0.1 165.7 2 14.7 2.9 32.5 2.4 6.4 21.7 4.4 3.7 -0.4 8.7 4.1 24.7 3.5 26.6 1.6 17.2 -0.5 7.9 1 6.5 -3.8 23.1 3.1

173.6 1.5 7.5 -1 166 1.6 14.5 1.8 32.6 0.7 6.4 21.8 4.4 3.7 -0.9 8.7 2.3 24.7 4.1 26.7 2.2 17.4 -0.2 7.9 0.9 6.6 -3.8 23.3 2.9

173.9 1.6 7.5 -1.7 166.4 1.7 14.3 -0.5 32.7 1.1 6.4 21.8 4.5 3.7 -1.5 8.8 1.7 24.7 3.8 26.8 1.7 17.6 2.5 8 0.5 6.6 -0.5 23.3 2.8

174.1 0.8 7.4 -2.5 166.7 1 14.2 -3.3 32.8 1.3 6.4 21.9 4.5 3.7 0.5 8.8 1.3 24.8 0.5 26.9 1.8 17.6 3.1 8 1 6.6 0.5 23.3 1.5

174.7 0.8 7.4 -1.8 167.2 0.9 14.2 -3.4 33.1 1.7 6.5 22.1 4.5 3.7 -0.2 8.8 0.9 24.9 0.7 27 1.2 17.7 2.8 8 0.7 6.6 1 23.4 1.1

175.5 1.1 7.4 -1.7 168 1.2 14.2 -1.7 33.3 2.2 6.5 22.3 4.6 3.7 -0.6 8.8 0.7 25.1 1.8 27 0.9 17.9 3 7.9 0.3 6.6 0.7 23.5 1

176.4 1.4 7.4 -1.1 169 1.6 14.2 -1 33.6 2.7 6.5 22.4 4.6 3.7 0.3 8.8 0.6 25.5 3 27.1 1.1 18 2.6 7.9 -0.2 6.6 0.6 23.6 1.2

177.3 1.8 7.4 -1.2 170 2 14.3 0.2 33.8 2.9 6.6 22.5 4.7 3.7 1.2 8.9 0.7 25.9 4.3 27.2 1.4 18 2.3 7.9 -0.3 6.6 0.5 23.7 1.5

178.3 2.1 7.3 -1.4 171 2.2 14.3 1.1 34 2.8 6.6 22.7 4.7 3.8 2.4 8.9 0.8 26.2 5.4 27.3 1.4 18.1 2.3 7.9 -0.3 6.6 0.4 23.8 1.5

179.3 2.2 7.3 -1.3 171.9 2.3 14.4 1.6 34.1 2.3 6.6 22.8 4.7 3.8 2.8 8.9 1.2 26.6 5.9 27.5 1.9 18.3 2.2 7.9 -0.1 6.6 -0.6 23.8 1.4

180.4 2.3 7.3 -0.9 173.1 2.4 14.6 2.6 34.3 2.3 6.7 22.9 4.8 3.8 2.3 8.9 1.3 27 6.2 27.6 1.9 18.4 1.9 7.9 -0.1 6.6 0.1 23.9 1.4

181.4 2.3 7.3 -0.5 174.1 2.4 14.7 3.2 34.5 2.1 6.8 23 4.8 3.8 2.4 9 1.4 27.5 6.2 27.7 1.5 18.4 2.1 7.9 -0.1 6.7 1.1 24 1.3

182.5 2.4 7.3 -0.2 175.2 2.5 14.9 3.8 34.6 1.8 6.8 23 4.9 3.8 2.4 9 1.8 27.8 6.2 27.7 1.3 18.5 1.9 7.9 0.2 6.8 2.6 24.1 1.3

183.6 2.4 7.3 0 176.2 2.5 15 3.8 34.7 1.7 6.8 23.1 4.9 3.9 2.4 9.1 2 28.1 5.7 27.8 1 18.5 1.5 8 0.3 7.1 7.5 24.2 1.4

14417.3 444.4 0.8 207.1 4 3.1 2847 2021 826

14474.3 445.6 0.9 207.9 3.7 3.2 2133 1863 269

14554.4 446.9 1.1 208.8 3.1 3.3 2186 1875 311

14635 448.1 1.1 209.6 2.7 3.4 2271 1951 319

14723.9 449.3 1.1 210.4 1.6 3.5 2360 2043 317

14853.9 450.6 1.1 211.2 1.6 3.5 2473 2155 318

14982.8 451.9 1.1 211.9 1.5 3.6 2558 2236 322

15118.6 453.2 1.1 212.7 1.5 3.6 2628 2303 324

15253.2 454.5 1.2 213.4 1.4 3.6 2687 2350 337

15395.1 456 1.2 214.2 1.4 3.6 2734 2392 341

15556.5 457.4 1.2 214.9 1.4 3.6 2784 2440 344

15708.7 459.1 1.3 215.6 1.4 3.6 2824 2476 347

15860.6 460.7 1.4 216.4 1.4 3.6 2863 2515 348

16006.7 462.5 1.4 217 1.3 3.6 2910 2560 350

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

77

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

March 2007 Short-Term Forecast 1999 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

9.1 3.7 4.6 4.5 9.3 2 22.1 22.7 26.8 2.1

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

9.7 6.9 4.9 4.8 9.7 4.3 23.4 23.4 28.2 4.9

10.2 4.8 5.1 5.1 10 2.6 24.2 23.7 29.6 5.3

10.5 3.2 5.1 5.4 10.1 1.8 24.7 23.8 29.9 0.8

10.9 3.6 5.3 5.5 10.3 1.6 25.3 23.9 30.7 2.8

11.5 6.1 5.7 5.8 10.6 3.4 26.5 24.5 32.4 5.4

12.2 5.7 6.1 6.1 10.9 2.7 27.7 24.9 33.7 4

12.9 6.1 6.5 6.5 11.3 3.3 29.2 25.5 34.9 3.6

13.6 5.5 6.7 6.9 11.7 3.6 30.5 26.1 35.9 2.8

14.5 6.3 7 7.5 12.2 4.2 32.1 26.9 37 3.2

15.6 7.2 7.4 8.1 12.8 5.1 33.9 27.9 38.4 3.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

78

Florida & Metro Forecast

155.4 1.3 9.4 -5.7 146.1 1.8 11.6 0.1 29.8 0.2 5.3 20.9 3.7 4.3 8 6.6 0.3 20 11.6 23.1 -0.7 14.7 -0.7 7.3 5.5 7.6 -2.1 21.1 0.6

157.1 1.1 8.8 -6.3 148.3 1.5 12.1 4.3 29.6 -0.9 5.2 21 3.4 4.2 -2.1 6.8 4.2 21.6 7.8 23.5 1.7 14 -4.2 7.5 2.3 7.7 0.8 21.3 1.2

154.8 -1.4 7.9 -10.1 147 -0.9 12.8 6.4 29.1 -1.7 5.5 20.2 3.4 3.4 -18.6 6.9 1.2 18.3 -15.4 24.2 3.1 15.7 11.7 7.4 -0.7 7.4 -4.2 21.7 1.9

154.7 -0.1 7.3 -7.1 147.3 0.3 11.1 -13.4 29.2 0.2 5.3 20.5 3.4 4.2 23.9 6.5 -6 19.2 5.4 25.3 4.6 15.7 -0.2 7.7 2.9 6.9 -6.2 21.6 -0.8

158.5 2.5 7.4 1.2 151.1 2.6 10.8 -2.8 29.5 1 5.3 20.8 3.3 4.1 -2 6.8 4.6 20.1 4.6 26.8 6.2 16.6 6.1 7.9 2.6 6.9 -0.5 21.6 0

162.9 2.7 7.3 -1.4 155.6 2.9 11.7 7.7 30.4 3.1 5.6 21.1 3.7 3.9 -4.5 7.5 9.7 21.6 7.2 26.7 -0.4 17.4 4.6 7.9 0.8 6.7 -2.2 21.7 0.9

167.3 2.7 7.6 3.3 159.8 2.7 13.7 17.6 31.7 4.2 6.1 21.4 4.1 3.7 -5.5 8 7.2 23.3 7.9 25.7 -4 17 -2.3 7.8 -1.6 6.7 -0.8 22.2 2.3

172 2.8 7.6 0.6 164.4 2.9 14.5 5.9 32.4 2.3 6.3 21.7 4.4 3.7 -0.4 8.6 8 24.2 4.1 26.4 2.8 17.2 1.2 7.9 1 6.6 -0.7 22.8 2.7

174.1 1.2 7.5 -1.7 166.6 1.3 14.3 -1.4 32.8 1.2 6.4 21.9 4.5 3.7 -0.5 8.8 1.6 24.8 2.2 26.8 1.8 17.6 2.1 7.9 0.8 6.6 -0.7 23.3 2.1

176.9 1.6 7.4 -1.3 169.5 1.7 14.3 -0.3 33.7 2.6 6.6 22.5 4.6 3.7 0.8 8.8 0.7 25.7 3.6 27.2 1.2 18 2.5 7.9 -0.1 6.6 0.5 23.6 1.3

180.9 2.3 7.3 -0.7 173.6 2.4 14.7 2.8 34.4 2.1 6.7 22.9 4.8 3.8 2.5 9 1.4 27.2 6.1 27.6 1.7 18.4 2 7.9 0 6.7 0.8 23.9 1.4

11034.5 410.5 0.5 181.3 0.9 3.8 3068 2837 230

11228.7 413.9 0.8 187.5 3.4 4 2545 2486 59

11303.3 419.9 1.5 186.4 -0.6 4.8 3113 2997 116

11630.5 425.4 1.3 186.6 0.1 5.3 3207 3021 186

12159.4 430.1 1.1 191.3 2.5 4.9 4504 3616 887

12806.4 435 1.1 194.8 1.9 4.7 4784 3703 1081

13623 439.5 1.1 197.2 1.2 3.9 3821 3340 480

14290.8 442.8 0.7 203.6 3.3 3.1 2841 2459 383

14596.9 447.5 1.1 209.2 2.8 3.4 2237 1933 304

15052.1 452.6 1.1 212.3 1.5 3.6 2586 2261 325

15630.2 458.3 1.3 215.3 1.4 3.6 2801 2456 345

Ta l l a h a s s ee

P r o fi l e s The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla counties. It is located between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State University and Florida A&M University.

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 334,886 as of July 1, 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Gadsden County population estimate of 46,426 as of July 1, 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Jefferson County population estimate of 14,490 as of July 1, 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Leon County population estimate of 245,756 as of July 1, 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Wakulla County population estimate of 28,212 as of July 1, 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau) • An MSA civilian labor force of 186,631 in December 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 2.6%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 4,770 unemployed people for the entire region. (Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • State Government (all departments) – 46,200 employees • Local Government (all departments) – 16,100 employees • Tallahassee Memorial Healthcare – 2,750 employees • Federal Government (all departments) – 1,900 employees • Alltel Florida, Inc – 1,000 employees • Tallahassee Leon County Civic Center - 672 employees • Quincy Corp. - 575 employees • Capital Regional Medical Center - 572 employees

• •

Meridian Healthcare Group - 500 employees Branch Banking & Trust Co. - 403 employees Sources: Florida Regional Economic Database and Tallahassee Economic Development Council

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s Total personal income in the Tallahassee metropolitan statistical area is estimated to grow, on average, 6.1% annually from 2007 to 2009.

Professional and business services are anticipated to experience 4.1% annual growth through 2009, while the leisure and hospitality sector should see 2.7% average annual growth. Manufacturing is estimated to fall 0.6% annually.

The unemployment rate in Tallahassee through 2009 is estimated to average 3.2%, below the state’s expected average unemployment rate of 3.2%. The unemployment rate is the second lowest from the twelve MSAs forecasted.

Population growth will average 1.2% annually, while it is anticipated that employment growth will average 1.6% a year.

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Vision 2020 to help local business • Leon County approved $725,000 in start-up costs for Vision 2020, a program that will give private funds to start-up businesses.

• Vision 2020, which was officially created in September 2006, operates independently from the county under the leadership of a board of directors.

• Commissioners are looking to raise $5 million in private funds over the next 12 to 18 months.

Source: Tallahassee Economic Development Center, January 25, 2007 Welaunee gains some ground • The Welaunee development acquired 250 acres with the help of CNL Real Estate and Development of Orlando.

• CNL will eventually buy more than 500 acres for the proposed 2,000 acre development that will

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Ta l l a h a s s ee

•

include more than 2,700 homes and 400,000 square feet of commercial space.

Development plans for the 508 acres will be submitted by CNL in the summer, and construction is slated to begin late this year.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, January 19, 2007

More good news for coal plant • 3,000 acres that were formerly reserved for agricultural use were approved to be the home for a new electricity generating facility.

• The proposed coal plant will bring a much-needed boost to Taylor County by infusing millions of dollars and around 180 jobs into the local economy.

• The project is still in its beginning phases but will bring service to large areas like Jacksonville and Walt Disney World.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, November 21, 2006 Already affordable housing could become more affordable • Additional affordable units could be in store for a new housing development with the approval of a grant application.

• A $5-million grant is available for residential development and would be used to lower the selling prices of 92 townhomes and provide belowmarket prices to income-qualifying applicants.

• If awarded the grant, a townhouse flat that normally sells for $260,000 could be reduced to $150,000.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, November 20, 2006 Tallahassee Center opens • The 111-unit Tallahassee Center condominiums, located near Doak Campbell Stadium, opened its doors to sports fans.

• The second downtown high-rise condominium was built with sports enthusiasts in mind.

• The Tallahassee Center donated $275,000, which came from a small portion of the closing cost of each condominium, to Seminole Boosters Inc..

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, November 3, 2006

80

Florida & Metro Forecast

Leon County lower foreclosure rates • Although Florida’s foreclosure rates are climbing compared to the rest of the nation, Leon County is well below the state’s average.

• Leon County had one foreclosure for every 1,209 households compared to Florida’s one in 564 and the nation’s one in 1,030.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, October 21, 2006

Ta l l a h a s s ee Tallahassee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

0.5

Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0%

(percent)

1.0

15000.0

2.5

3.0

(Millions 2000 $)

14000.0 13000.0 12000.0 11000.0 10000.0 9000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 FL Unemployment Rate Tallahassee Unemployment Rate

8000.0

(Thousands)

8.0% 6.0%

170.0

4.0%

160.0

2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Tallahassee Payroll Employment

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Gross Metro Product

Tallahassee Real Personal Income

180.0

150.0

2.0

Tallahassee Real Gross Metro Product

Tallahassee Payroll Employment 190.0

1.5

0.0%

(percent change year ago)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Personal Income

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Ta l l a h a s s ee

Quarterly Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

March 2007 Short-Term Forecast* 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

10.5 6.4 6.5 4 9.2 4.4 31.2 27.1 36.5 4.2

10.7 5.1 6.6 4.1 9.2 2.9 31.6 27.3 36.8 2

10.8 5.6 6.6 4.2 9.3 3.9 31.9 27.4 37.1 3.1

10.9 5.3 6.7 4.2 9.4 3.7 32.2 27.5 37.4 3.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

11.3 5.5 6.9 4.4 9.5 3.4 33 27.9 38 3.2

11.5 5.9 7 4.5 9.6 3.8 33.4 28.1 38.3 3.3

11.6 6.4 7.1 4.6 9.8 4.3 33.8 28.3 38.7 3.6

11.8 6.6 7.2 4.7 9.9 4.5 34.3 28.6 39.1 3.7

12 6.6 7.3 4.8 10 4.6 34.7 28.8 39.5 3.9

12.2 6.9 7.4 4.9 10.1 4.8 35.2 29.1 39.9 4.1

12.5 7 7.5 5 10.2 4.9 35.7 29.3 40.3 4

12.7 7.2 7.6 5.1 10.4 5 36.2 29.6 40.7 4.1

12.

7.

7.

5.

10.

5.

36.

29.

41.

4.

177.7 2.5 4.2 -0.3 173.5 2.6 10 1.2 25.6 1.4 3.6 19.4 2.6 4.2 0.4 8.3 3.3 20.7 7 17.1 2.5 16.4 5.3 8.1 1.5 1.9 0.2 61.2 1.5

178.1 1.9 4.2 -1.6 173.9 2 9.8 -0.7 25.7 1.2 3.6 19.4 2.7 4.2 0.1 8.3 1.5 20.6 4.2 17.2 2.8 16.5 4.4 8.2 0.9 1.9 0 61.4 1.5

178.4 1.6 4.1 -1.2 174.2 1.7 9.7 -3 25.7 -0.4 3.6 19.4 2.7 4.2 1.1 8.3 1 20.7 2.8 17.2 2.2 16.7 4.4 8.2 1.2 1.9 1.6 61.5 2.3

178.6 1 4.1 -1.7 174.4 1 9.6 -3.5 25.8 1 3.6 19.5 2.7 4.2 0.7 8.3 1.1 20.8 0.8 17.3 1.9 16.7 3.1 8.2 1.3 1.9 0.9 61.4 1

179.1 0.8 4.1 -1 174.9 0.8 9.6 -3.7 26 1.5 3.7 19.6 2.7 4.2 0 8.4 0.7 20.9 1 17.4 1.3 16.8 2.8 8.2 1 1.9 1.4 61.6 0.6

179.9 1 4.1 -0.9 175.8 1.1 9.6 -1.9 26.2 2 3.7 19.8 2.7 4.2 -0.3 8.3 0.5 21.1 2.1 17.4 0.9 17 2.9 8.2 0.6 1.9 1 61.8 0.6

180.8 1.3 4.1 -0.4 176.6 1.4 9.6 -1.2 26.4 2.5 3.7 19.9 2.8 4.3 0.6 8.4 0.4 21.4 3.2 17.4 1.1 17.1 2.6 8.2 0.1 1.9 0.9 62 0.8

181.6 1.7 4.1 -0.5 177.4 1.7 9.6 0 26.5 2.6 3.7 20 2.8 4.3 1.4 8.4 0.5 21.7 4.5 17.5 1.3 17.1 2.2 8.2 0 1.9 0.8 62.1 1.2

182.4 1.9 4.1 -0.6 178.3 1.9 9.7 0.8 26.7 2.6 3.7 20.1 2.8 4.3 2.6 8.4 0.5 22 5.5 17.6 1.4 17.2 2.2 8.2 -0.1 1.9 0.7 62.3 1.2

183.2 1.9 4.1 -0.4 179.1 1.9 9.7 1.2 26.7 2 3.7 20.2 2.9 4.3 2.9 8.4 0.9 22.3 6 17.7 1.8 17.3 2 8.2 0 1.9 -1.5 62.4 1

184.2 1.9 4.1 0 180 1.9 9.8 2.1 26.9 1.9 3.8 20.2 2.9 4.4 2.4 8.4 1 22.7 6.3 17.7 1.8 17.4 1.7 8.2 0 1.9 0 62.5 0.9

185 1.9 4.1 0.5 180.9 1.9 9.9 2.7 26.9 1.7 3.8 20.3 2.9 4.4 2.5 8.5 1.1 23.1 6.3 17.8 1.4 17.4 2 8.2 0 2 1.8 62.7 0.9

185.9 1.9 4.1 0.8 181.7 1.9 10 3.3 27 1.4 3.8 20.3 2.9 4.4 2.5 8.5 1.5 23.4 6.3 17.8 1.2 17.5 1.8 8.2 0.2 2 4.1 62.8 0.9

186.

1.

4.

12834.6 337.7 0.7 183.2 3.9 2.9 3299 2410 890

12887.1 338.4 0.7 183.9 3.1 3 2979 2167 812

12958.8 339.3 0.9 184.6 2.7 3.1 2864 2045 819

13028.7 340.2 0.9 185.2 2.1 3.2 2813 1994 819

13107 341.1 1 185.9 1.4 3.2 2696 1862 834

13227.5 342.1 1.1 186.5 1.4 3.3 2624 1782 842

13343 343.1 1.1 187.1 1.3 3.3 2598 1752 846

13462.1 344.2 1.2 187.7 1.3 3.3 2643 1794 849

13580.4 345.3 1.2 188.2 1.3 3.3 2677 1820 857

13704.1 346.5 1.3 188.8 1.3 3.3 2712 1845 867

13841.6 347.7 1.3 189.4 1.2 3.3 2726 1870 856

13970.8 349.1 1.4 190 1.2 3.3 2733 1886 847

14099.7 350.5 1.5 190.5 1.2 3.3 2724 1894 830

14228.

351.

1.

191.

1.

3.

273 191 81

*Quarterly at an annual rate

82

11.1 5.4 6.8 4.3 9.4 3.1 32.5 27.7 37.7 3.4

Florida & Metro Forecast

182.

1.

10.

3.

2 1.

3.

20.

4.

2.

8.

1.

23.

5.

17.

0.

17.

1.

8.

0.

2.

13.

6 0.

Ta l l a h a s s ee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

March 2007 Short-Term Forecast 1999 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

7.6 6.1 4.7 2.9 7.7 4.4 23.8 24.4 28.7 3.8

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

8 5.2 5 3 8 2.7 24.8 24.8 29.8 3.7

8.3 3.7 5.2 3 8.1 1.6 25.6 25.1 31.3 5

8.4 2.1 5.3 3.1 8.1 0.7 26 25.1 32.2 2.9

8.7 3.1 5.5 3.2 8.2 1.1 26.5 25.1 32.7 1.7

9.3 6.6 5.8 3.5 8.6 3.9 28 25.8 34.2 4.4

9.7 4.8 6 3.7 8.7 1.9 29 26.1 34.9 2

10.3 6.3 6.4 3.9 9 3.5 30.7 26.8 36.2 3.8

10.9 5.4 6.7 4.2 9.3 3.4 32 27.5 37.3 3

11.6 6.1 7 4.5 9.7 4 33.6 28.2 38.5 3.4

12.4 6.9 7.4 4.9 10.2 4.8 35.4 29.2 40.1 4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

162.7 2.5 5 -0.2 157.6 2.6 7.2 1.1 24.9 4 3.6 19.1 2.2 4.6 9.6 6.9 2.1 16.1 8.5 16.1 3.5 12.2 -1.5 7.9 -1.2 1.9 0 59.8 1.6

166.6 2.4 5.1 1.1 161.5 2.4 7.3 1.3 25.4 1.9 3.8 19.5 2.1 4.8 5.8 7 0.9 17.6 9.2 16.8 4.5 12.1 -0.5 8.2 3.9 2 6.5 60.2 0.6

165.9 -0.4 4.4 -13 161.5 0 6.9 -4.9 24.1 -4.9 3.7 18.4 2 4.6 -5.1 6.9 -0.5 18.7 6.4 16.8 -0.2 13 7.2 8.1 -1.1 1.9 -6.5 60.3 0.3

164.4 -0.9 4.1 -6.6 160.2 -0.8 7.2 3.5 23.4 -3.1 3.2 18.1 2.1 4 -13.4 7.4 7.4 18.2 -2.7 16.5 -1.8 13.4 3.2 8.1 -0.2 1.9 2.2 60.1 -0.4

165.7 0.8 4.1 -0.6 161.6 0.8 7.7 7.1 23.5 0.5 3 18.5 2 3.8 -3.8 7.7 3 18.2 0 16.7 1.1 13.6 1.6 7.8 -3.7 2 3 60.6 0.8

168.1 1.5 4.2 2 163.9 1.4 8.3 8.5 24.6 4.4 3.3 19.1 2.1 4 4.5 7.6 -0.8 18.2 -0.3 16.4 -1.7 14.4 6.1 8 2.7 1.9 -3.4 60.5 -0.2

172.1 2.4 4.2 -1 168 2.5 9.4 13.1 25.3 2.9 3.6 19.1 2.5 4.1 3.8 7.9 3.4 19.1 5.3 16.6 1.3 15.5 7.6 8 -0.5 1.9 -0.8 60.1 -0.6

176.2 2.4 4.2 0.9 172 2.4 10 5.8 25.6 1.3 3.6 19.4 2.6 4.2 1.1 8.2 4.7 20.3 6.3 16.9 1.9 16.1 3.7 8.1 1.5 1.9 -0.8 60.6 0.9

178.5 1.3 4.1 -1.4 174.4 1.4 9.7 -2.7 25.8 0.8 3.6 19.5 2.7 4.2 0.5 8.3 1.1 20.7 2.2 17.3 2 16.7 3.7 8.2 1.1 1.9 1 61.5 1.4

181.2 1.5 4.1 -0.6 177 1.5 9.6 -0.6 26.4 2.4 3.7 20 2.8 4.3 1.1 8.4 0.5 21.5 3.8 17.5 1.2 17.1 2.5 8.2 0.1 1.9 0.9 62 0.9

184.6 1.9 4.1 0.2 180.4 1.9 9.9 2.3 26.9 1.7 3.8 20.3 2.9 4.4 2.6 8.5 1.1 22.9 6.2 17.8 1.6 17.4 1.9 8.2 0.1 2 1.1 62.6 0.9

10108.2 317.4 1.3 172.9 1.9 2.8 2456 1987 469

10415 321 1.1 172.5 -0.2 3.2 2902 1994 908

10441.5 322.7 0.5 172.5 0 3.7 2687 1895 791

10516.1 324.8 0.6 171.9 -0.4 4.6 2708 2222 486

10898.8 328.1 1 173.5 0.9 4.3 3907 2464 1443

11448.4 331.4 1 173.8 0.2 3.9 3452 2175 1277

12177.5 334.6 1 175.6 1 3.3 3750 2812 939

12725.8 336.7 0.6 180.7 2.9 2.8 4002 3003 1000

12995.4 339.8 0.9 184.9 2.3 3.1 2838 2017 821

13403.2 343.7 1.2 187.4 1.3 3.3 2636 1787 849

13904 348.4 1.4 189.7 1.2 3.3 2724 1874 850

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r wa t e r

P r o fi l e s

• • •

St Joseph’s Hospital - 5,242 employees JPMorgan Chase - 5,237 employees Verizon Information Technologies - 5,000 employees

The Tampa – St. Petersburg – Clearwater MSA is comprised of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas counties. Located centrally on the west coast of Florida, Source: Greater Tampa Chamber of Commerce this region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge Docks, Ybor City, Bush Gardens, the University of South Florida, and the University of Tampa. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s the Devil Rays also call this region home.

Quick Facts: • MSA population estimate of 2,647,658 as of July 1, 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hernando County population estimate of 158,409 as of July 1, 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hillsborough County population estimate of 1,132,152 as of July 1, 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Pasco County population estimate of 429,065 as of July 1, 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Pinellas County population estimate of 928,035 as of July 1, 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 1,352,600 in December 2006 for the entire region (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 40,586 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Hillsborough County School District - 25,487 employees • Verizon Communications - 14,000 employees • MacDill Air Force Base - 12,000 employees • University of South Florida - 11,607 employees • Hillsborough County Government -10,886 employees • Tampa International Airport - 7,760 employees • James A. Haley Veterans Hospital - 5,900 employees

84

Florida & Metro Forecast

The Tampa – St. Petersburg – Clearwater metropolitan statistical area is anticipated to experience personal income growth 10 basis points greater than the state of Florida, with an average increase of 7% annually through 2009.

As with the many other Florida MSAs, Tampa – St. Petersburg – Clearwater is predicted to experience a great increase of professional and business services over the next several years; growth should average 6.3% annually.

Leisure and hospitality will see average annual growth of 2.5%, while education and health services will expand about 2.4% a year.

It is anticipated that the unemployment rate of the Tampa – St. Petersburg – Clearwater MSA will average 10 basis points below the unemployment rate of Florida.

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s OJ plant to deliver new crop: biodiesel • Pensacola-based Agri-Source Fuels will soon begin to convert chicken fat and plant oils to biodiesel at a former orange juice plant located in Dade City.

• The 60,000-square-foot space could produce as many as 125-million gallons of biodiesel a year, giving the plant the largest production capacity in the nation.

• Currently, there are 105 biodiesel companies in the United States with an annual production capacity of 864-million gallons per year.

Source: The St. Petersburg Times, February 13, 2007 Biotech building in plans for USF • The University of South Florida is planning a four-story building at USF Research Park to give a home to fast-growing life science companies.

• Groundbreaking is expected to be during the summer 2007, and completion of the building, which should be between 125,000 and 140,000 square feet, should take place in a little more than a year.

Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r wa t e r

•

The plan needs approval from both the board of trustees and the State University System.

Source: The Tampa Tribune January 25, 2007

Airport increasing number of seats • Tampa International Airport reported that 2006 was the second-busiest year in its history, with 9.4 million departing passengers • Southwest Airlines, already the biggest carrier at TIA, is increasing seats offered for trips at the airports.

Source: The Tampa Tribune, January 13, 2007 Airport closes out year on upswing • In 2006, St. Petersburg-Clearwater International Airport served the fewest number of passengers in 15 years.

• Last year, the 389,997 domestic and international passengers marked a 35% decline from 2005, but traffic in December was up from a year ago.

Source: The Tampa Tribune, January 10, 2007 HealthPlan to add 300 employees in Tampa • HealthPlan Services will hire 300 new workers in Tampa for positions in customer service, underwriting, and claims.

• The Tampa-based firm is also opening two other offices elsewhere in the country, and after the expansion, the company should have 1,100 employees in Tampa and 1,650 employees nationwide.

Source: The Tampa Tribune January 9, 2007 Incentives seem like small change for SRI • SRI International Inc. of Menlo Park in California recently opened a branch in St. Petersburg due to $30 million in government incentives, • SRI, which began as a spin-off of Stanford University, is a nonprofit research organization that receives most revenue from government contracts and grants.

• SRI received 29 government grants in 2005.

Source: The St. Petersburg Times, January 4, 2007

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r wa t e r Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

Florida & Tampa Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

(percent)

0.3

0.6

1.2

1.5

Tampa Real Gross Metro Product 120000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

110000.0 100000.0 90000.0 80000.0 70000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 FL Unemployment Rate Tampa Unemployment Rate

60000.0

(Thousands)

1500.0

7.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

1400.0

5.0%

1300.0

4.0%

1200.0

3.0% 2.0%

1100.0 1000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Gross Metro Product

Tampa Real Personal Income

Tampa Payroll Employment

86

0.9

1.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Tampa Payroll Employment

Florida & Metro Forecast

0.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Personal Income

Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r wa t e r

Quarterly Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

March 2007 Short-Term Forecast* 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

95.3 6.4 53.2 42.1 82.9 4.4 35 30.5 39.6 4.2

96.7 5.3 53.9 42.8 83.5 3.1 35.4 30.6 40 2.1

98.2 6.1 54.6 43.6 84.3 4.4 35.8 30.7 40.3 3.3

99.6 6.1 55.3 44.4 85.1 4.4 36.1 30.9 40.6 3.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

101.2 6.2 56 45.2 86 3.8 36.5 31 40.9 3.4

102.9 6.4 56.9 46 87.1 4.2 37 31.3 41.3 3.3

104.9 6.8 57.8 47 88.3 4.7 37.5 31.6 41.6 3.3

106.9 7.3 59 48 89.6 5.2 38.1 31.9 42.1 3.6

109 7.7 60 49 90.9 5.6 38.6 32.2 42.4 3.7

111 7.9 61.1 49.9 92.1 5.8 39.1 32.5 42.9 3.8

113.2 8 62.2 51 93.5 5.8 39.7 32.8 43.3 4

115.4 7.9 63.4 52 94.8 5.8 40.3 33.1 43.7 4

117.6 7.9 64.5 53.1 96.1 5.8 40.9 33.4 44.2 4

119.8 7.9 65.7 54.1 97.4 5.7 41.5 33.7 44.6 4

1331.2 2.1 72.3 -2.9 1258.9 2.4 85.6 -0.4 235.9 1.1 52.8 151.1 32 33.5 0.7 99.4 1.2 318.8 4.5 157.4 2.6 125.7 4.9 51.4 -0.5 21.4 2.7 129.9 1.5

1337 1.8 72 -3.2 1265 2 84.7 -2.6 236.6 0.9 53 151.5 32.1 33.5 -0.1 100 1.6 321.2 4 158.9 2.4 126.6 4.9 51.6 0 21.5 2 130.5 1.3

1343.7 2.1 71.4 -2.6 1272.3 2.4 84.2 -3.4 237.2 1.4 53.1 151.8 32.3 33.4 -0.5 100.5 2 325.3 4.6 159.7 3.3 127.7 4 51.9 0.6 21.6 1.4 130.9 2.2

1349.8 2 71.3 -2.1 1278.5 2.2 83.7 -2.3 238.2 1.3 53.3 152.5 32.6 33.2 -1.3 100.8 2.3 329.2 4.3 160.7 3.2 127.8 2.6 51.9 1.2 21.7 1.3 131.1 1.9

1356.9 1.9 71.3 -1.4 1285.6 2.1 83.3 -2.6 239.7 1.6 53.4 153.6 32.8 33 -1.6 101.1 1.7 333.1 4.5 161.5 2.6 128.6 2.2 51.9 0.9 21.8 1.9 131.8 1.5

1366.8 2.2 71.1 -1.2 1295.7 2.4 83.5 -1.4 241.7 2.1 53.7 155 33.1 33 -1.4 101.4 1.4 338.4 5.3 162.1 2 129.6 2.4 51.8 0.5 21.8 1.6 132.3 1.4

1378.4 2.6 71 -0.6 1307.5 2.8 83.8 -0.4 243.4 2.6 54 156.2 33.4 33.3 -0.3 101.8 1.3 345.1 6.1 162.8 1.9 130.6 2.3 51.8 0 21.9 1.5 132.9 1.5

1391 3.1 70.8 -0.6 1320.1 3.3 84.6 1 245 2.9 54.3 157.1 33.7 33.4 0.5 102.4 1.6 352.7 7.1 164.1 2.1 130.5 2.1 51.9 0 22 1.4 133.5 1.8

1402.8 3.4 70.8 -0.7 1332 3.6 85.2 2.2 246.6 2.9 54.6 158.2 34 33.5 1.6 102.9 1.8 359.4 7.9 165 2.2 131.4 2.2 51.9 0 22.1 1.4 134 1.7

1414.5 3.5 70.8 -0.5 1343.7 3.7 86.1 3.1 247.6 2.5 54.9 158.8 34.3 33.7 2 103.3 1.9 365.9 8.1 166.1 2.5 132.4 2.1 51.9 0.1 22.1 1.3 134.6 1.7

1426.5 3.5 70.9 -0.2 1355.7 3.7 87 3.7 249 2.3 55.2 159.7 34.6 33.8 1.6 103.7 1.9 373.1 8.1 166.9 2.5 133 1.8 51.9 0.1 22.2 1.2 135.1 1.7

1438.7 3.4 70.9 0.1 1367.8 3.6 88 4.1 250.1 2.1 55.5 160.2 34.9 34 1.8 104.4 2 380.5 7.9 167.6 2.2 133.1 2 52 0.1 22.3 1.5 135.8 1.7

1450.5 3.4 71.1 0.4 1379.4 3.6 89 4.4 251.2 1.8 55.8 160.8 35.2 34.1 1.9 105.1 2.1 387.2 7.7 168.1 1.9 133.7 1.8 52 0.3 22.6 2.3 136.4 1.8

1461.5 3.3 71.2 0.5 1390.3 3.5 89.9 4.4 252 1.8 56.1 161.2 35.4 34.3 1.9 105.7 2.3 393 7.4 168.6 1.5 134.2 1.4 52.1 0.4 23.6 6.6 136.9 1.7

103603 2719.5 1.9 1353.4 3.2 3.2 16418 12884 3534

104296 2732.6 1.9 1359 3.2 3.3 17379 13565 3814

105195 2745.7 1.9 1364.6 2.9 3.4 17861 13168 4694

106073 2758.3 1.9 1370.1 2.6 3.5 18378 13181 5196

106987 2771.1 1.9 1375.7 1.6 3.5 18751 13159 5592

108227 2784.1 1.9 1381.1 1.6 3.6 19267 13554 5713

109490 2797.1 1.9 1386.7 1.6 3.5 19726 13853 5873

110825 2810.2 1.9 1392.3 1.6 3.5 20324 14318 6006

112117 2823.2 1.9 1398.3 1.6 3.5 20787 14712 6075

113476 2836.1 1.9 1404 1.7 3.5 21254 15142 6112

114866 2849.2 1.9 1409.9 1.7 3.5 21582 15483 6098

116217 2862.1 1.8 1415.6 1.7 3.5 21877 15763 6114

117559 2875.1 1.8 1421.2 1.6 3.4 22122 16046 6076

118910 2888.3 1.8 1426.7 1.6 3.4 22426 16358 6068

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

87

Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r wa t e r

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

March 2007 Short-Term Forecast 1999 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

63.7 5.1 35.4 28.4 65.3 3.4 26.8 27.5 30.9 5.5

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

68.9 8.1 38.5 30.4 68.9 5.5 28.6 28.6 32.2 4.1

71.7 4.1 40.2 31.5 70.2 2 29.3 28.7 33.6 4.6

74.2 3.4 41.4 32.8 71.6 2 29.8 28.7 34.8 3.5

76.7 3.5 42.6 34.2 72.7 1.5 30.3 28.7 35.6 2.2

81.9 6.8 45.6 36.3 75.6 4 31.6 29.2 36.5 2.7

87.4 6.7 48.9 38.5 78.4 3.7 33 29.6 37.6 3

93.4 6.9 52.3 41.1 81.5 4 34.6 30.2 39.3 4.3

98.9 5.9 54.9 44 84.8 4 35.9 30.8 40.5 3

105.9 7.1 58.4 47.5 89 5 37.8 31.7 41.9 3.5

114.3 7.9 62.8 51.5 94.1 5.8 40 33 43.5 4

1288.3 4.2 74.7 0.2 1213.5 4.5 83.5 11 231 3.6 51.5 147.7 31.8 32.7 -0.4 97.8 3.2 298.8 7.5 152.4 2 118.1 4.5 50.9 5.6 20.7 4.2 127.6 0.4

1321 2.5 73.2 -2 1247.8 2.8 86.3 3.4 234.9 1.7 52.4 150.6 31.9 33.6 2.5 98.7 1 313.6 4.9 155.7 2.2 123.4 4.5 51.5 1.2 21.3 2.6 128.9 1

1346.9 2 71.5 -2.3 1275.4 2.2 84 -2.7 237.9 1.3 53.2 152.4 32.5 33.3 -0.9 100.6 1.9 327.2 4.4 160.2 2.9 127.7 3.4 51.8 0.7 21.6 1.6 131.1 1.7

1384.8 2.8 70.9 -0.8 1313.8 3 84.3 0.4 244.2 2.6 54.1 156.7 33.5 33.3 0.1 102.1 1.5 348.9 6.6 163.5 2.1 130.5 2.3 51.9 0.1 21.9 1.5 133.2 1.6

1432.6 3.5 70.9 0 1361.7 3.6 87.5 3.8 249.5 2.2 55.3 159.9 34.8 33.9 1.8 104.1 2 376.7 8 167.2 2.3 133 1.9 51.9 0.1 22.3 1.6 135.5 1.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

88

Florida & Metro Forecast

1132.2 2.7 84.9 2.8 1047.2 2.6 60.4 -0.1 228.8 0.6 51.7 141.5 35.5 37.8 9 87.3 6.4 216.8 8.8 136.1 -0.7 102.1 -1 42.9 2.1 18.4 0.9 116.7 0.6

1185.2 4.7 87.5 3 1097.7 4.8 64 6 237.4 3.8 54.2 146.5 36.7 39.7 5 90.9 4.1 236.9 9.3 137.1 0.7 105.2 3 43.9 2.4 19.1 3.9 123.5 5.9

1182.2 -0.3 82.2 -6 1100 0.2 63.8 -0.3 228.7 -3.7 52.9 141.9 33.9 38.9 -2 91.6 0.8 241.2 1.8 137.2 0.1 107.7 2.4 44.4 1.1 18.8 -1.4 127.6 3.3

1176.2 -0.5 78 -5.1 1098.2 -0.2 65.7 3 224.6 -1.8 51.6 140.9 32.1 35.8 -7.9 91.8 0.3 237.5 -1.5 140.2 2.2 109 1.2 47 5.7 19 0.7 127.7 0.1

1183.5 0.6 74 -5.1 1109.5 1 68.2 3.7 218.2 -2.8 48.7 138.8 30.7 34.6 -3.5 93.2 1.5 248.1 4.5 144.8 3.3 109.5 0.4 46.9 -0.1 19.5 2.8 126.7 -0.8

1236.1 4.4 74.6 0.8 1161.5 4.7 75.2 10.4 223.1 2.2 49.2 142.2 31.6 32.9 -4.9 94.8 1.6 277.9 12 149.4 3.2 113 3.3 48.2 2.7 19.9 2.1 127.2 0.4

74897.8 2373.9 1.4 1254.9 2.6 2.9 22956 13900 9056

78523.3 2409.7 1.5 1200 -4.4 3.4 19963 13762 6200

79666.7 2449.6 1.7 1210.6 0.9 4.3 22017 16523 5494

81307.6 2492.2 1.7 1217.6 0.6 5.6 24099 18391 5708

84287.5 2535.9 1.8 1226.1 0.7 5.3 27937 20354 7583

90366 2591.4 2.2 1260.4 2.8 4.5 27850 22502 5348

97599.3 102600.7 105637.8 110164.7 115529.8 2649.7 2700 2751.9 2803.6 2855.6 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1294.9 1332.9 1367.3 1389.6 1412.7 2.7 2.9 2.6 1.6 1.7 3.7 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.5 33212 24237 18092 20026 21709 28048 20890 13268 14109 15608 5164 3347 4824 5917 6100

I n d u s t r y L o ca t i o n Q u o t ie n t

Explanation and Interpretation This technique compares the local economy to a reference economy; in this case, the local economy is the chosen MSA, and the reference economy is the state of Florida. An Industry Location Quotient (LQ) is calculated to determine if the local economy has a greater share of each industry’s employment than the reference economy. The LQ helps to identify specializations that exist in the local economy.

There are only three possible outcomes: 1. An LQ greater than one 2. An LQ equal to one and 3.

An LQ less than one. An LQ that is greater than one means that the share of local employment in that particular industry is greater than the reference economy employment share in that same industry. This implies that some of the goods or services produced by that industry are exported for consumption elsewhere. An LQ of one means that local demand is met by the local industry. No goods/services are imported or exported from the local area in that industry. The share of local employment in that industry is equal to the share for that industry in the reference economy. An LQ less than one implies that the industry is not meeting local demand for that good or service, and in order to meet demand, that area must import that good or service.

This also means that the share of local employment in that industry is less than the share of employment in that industry for the reference economy.

C a l cu l a t i o n An industry location quotient is a calculated ratio of two ratios.

LQ = ((Local employment in industry A in year T / Total local employment in year T) / (Reference economy employment in industry A in year T) / (Total reference employment in year T)) For example: Orlando MSA employment for Information is 27,400 Total Orlando MSA nonagricultural employment is 1,104,100 Florida employment for Information is 169,800 Total Florida nonagricultural employment is 8,247,000 LQ = ((27,400 / 1,104,100) / (169,800 / 8,247,000)) = 1.2039 Source: Florida Regional Economic Database, Current Employment Statistics, December 2006

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

89

Defi n i t i o n s Average Annual Wage – Total annual wage divided by annual average employment

●

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Sector ■

Disposable Income – After-tax income

➤

Gross Metro Product – Measure of output for a specific metropolitan area

■

Labor Force – Consists of all persons classified as employed or unemployed Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) – “The general concept of an MSA is one of a large population nucleus, together with adjacent communities, which have a high degree of economic and social integration with that nucleus.

These are defined by the Office of Management and Budget as a standard for Federal agencies in the preparation and publication of statistics relating to metropolitan areas.”

(Bureau of Labor Statistics) Payroll Employment (from the Current Employment Statistics) – “The total number of persons on establishment payrolls employed full or part time who received pay for any part of the pay period, which includes the 12th day of the month. In short, payroll employment numbers are collected from the place of work.”

Per Capita Income – Average obtained by dividing income by population of an area Personal Income – Income received from all sources, including government transfers and business transfer payments, less contributions for government social insurance Real Personal Income – Personal income adjusted for inflation, in 2000 dollars Seasonally Adjusted (SA) – Removes the effects of events that follow a somewhat regular pattern each year.

Adjustments like these allow one to observe the cyclical and other non-seasonal movements in a data series.

■

Examples include repair and maintenance services along with other miscellaneous services

Federal Government ■

●

Examples include historical sites, museums, and food services

Other Services Sector ■

●

Examples include colleges, trade schools, medical care, etc.

Leisure and Hospitality Sector ■

●

Examples include engineering services, bookkeeping services, and research

Education and Health Sector ■

●

Examples include financial institutions, brokerages, insurance

Professional and Business Sector ■

●

Examples include broadcasters, publishers, etc.

Financial Activities Sector ■

●

Examples include transportation services, shipping services, utilities, etc.

Information Sector ■

●

Examples include car dealerships and retail stores

Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities ➤

●

Examples include food wholesalers, construction wholesalers, etc.

Retail Trade Sector ➤

Household Employment – Number of people employed; data collected by place residence Housing Starts – Data based on the breaking of ground for footings or foundations or beginning a new superstructure on top of an existing foundation

Wholesale Trade Sector

Examples include Postal Service and Department of Defense

State and Local Government ■

Examples include state and local education, transportation, and administration

Unemployment Rate – Number of unemployed people as a percent of the labor force Wages and Salaries – Gross earnings (not including premium pay such as overtime and bonuses) divided by hours worked

Total Employment – Summation of employment from different industry sectors Example of Sectors: ●

Manufacturing Sector ■

Examples include manufacturing metal products, electronic products, vehicles, etc.

●

Non-manufacturing Sector

●

Construction Sector ■

90

Examples include contractors and building construction

Florida & Metro Forecast

Sources and Useful Links: www.bea.gov/bea/glossary www.bea.gov/bea/regional/definitions www.bls.gov/bls/glossary.htm www.bls.gov/ces/cesseriespub.htm

Director, Institute for Economic Competitiveness.

Ph.D., Pennsylvania State University 1996; M.A., Pennsylvania State University 1994, B.S., Allegheny College 1989.

Sea n M . S n ait h , P h . D .

Sean Snaith is Director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness in the College of Business Administration at the University of Central Florida.

Dr. Snaith received his B.S. in Economics from Allegheny College, and his M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from Pennsylvania State University. He has taught at Penn State, the American University in Cairo, the University of North Dakota and the University of the Pacific. While at the University of North Dakota he served as the Director of the Bureau of Business and Economic Research and as Director of the Business Forecasting Center at the University of the Pacific.

Snaith also served with International Planning and Research, a Boston area consulting firm, where his work included forecasting, market sizing, economic analyses, and econometric modeling for a variety of clients including IBM, Dell, Compaq, and HewlettPackard.

We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness:

Snaith is a director of the Association of University Business of Economic Research, a member of the National Association of Business Economics, and the American Economics Association. He is also a member of the Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast Panel, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Survey of Professional Forecasters, Livingston Survey, Bloomberg U.S. Economic Indicator Survey and USA Today’s Quarterly Survey of Top Economists. He is frequently quoted in the media and has published articles on a variety of topics including exchange rate modeling, predicting educational outcomes, the economics of information technology, and telemedicine.

For more information Sean Snaith, Director Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida P.O. Box 161400 Orlando, FL 32816 PH: 407.823.1451 FAX: 407.823.1454 EMAIL: ssnaith@bus.ucf.edu www.iec.ucf.edu

U n i v e r s it y o f C e n t r al F l o r ida College of Business Administration Institute for Economic Competitiveness P. O . B o x 1 6 1 4 0 0 , O r l a n d o , F l o r i d a 3 2 8 1 6 PH 407.823.1453

FAX 407.823.1454

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