Florida and Metro Forecast March 2009

Florida & Metro Forecast 2009-2012

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

Published March 2009

Message From D ea n T h o ma s L . K e o n

A b o ut U n i v e r s it y o f C e n t r al F l o r ida ( U C F ) T h e Un i ve r s i t y o f C e n t r a l Fl o r i d a i s a public, multi-campus, metropolitan

Our state animal is the endangered Florida Panther.

Years ago, they were plentiful and roamed freely throughout the southeast United States. But things changed. Panthers were hunted and human growth and development forced them to lose their habitats. Today, the remaining population lives in South Florida and there is only 100 or so left.

r e s e a r c h u n i v e r s i t y, d e d i c a t e d t o serving its surrounding communities with their diverse and expanding populations, technological corridors, and international partners. The mission of the university is to offer high-quality undergraduate and graduate education, student development, and continuing education; to conduct research and creative activities; and to provide

The Florida Panther can serve as a symbol of how unfavorable conditions endanger population growth and location. When an environment begins to show weakness, it is likely that growth will discontinue. Our state has been hit hard by the recession. We have experienced housing market problems, a decline in the number of tourists, increasing unemployment rates and severe budget cuts. As a result, for the first time in decades, Florida is experiencing a decline in population growth.

services that enhance the intellectual, cultural, environmental, and economic development of the metropolitan region, address national and international issues in key areas, establish UCF as a major presence, and contribute to the global c o m m u n i t y.

A b o ut t h e C o lle g e o f B u s i n e s s A dmi n i s t r ati o n The College of Business Administration a d v a n c e s t h e u n i v e r s i t y ’s m i s s i o n and goals in providing intellectual leadership through research, teaching, and service. The college is striving to enhance graduate programs, while maintaining the strong undergraduate base. The college delivers research and quality business education programs at the undergraduate, masters, doctoral, and executive levels to citizens of the state of Florida and to select clientele n a t i o n a l l y a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y.

For years, people moved here in record numbers from out-of-state. I look around our university and many of my colleagues, myself included, are not Florida natives. Now it seems, instead of people moving into our state, some are starting to move out and relocate to other areas. As you read through this forecast, you will see how this is affecting our economy.

Dr. Sean Snaith estimates that while the U.S. recession should end during the 4th quarter of 2009, Florida may not emerge until the 2nd quarter of 2010. We may never get back to the population boom or thriving economy we experienced in the past, but I am confident, that with proper planning and a lot of patience, the state of Florida will flourish once again. Like our beloved state animal, the citizens of Florida are strong and will find a way to survive this recession.

L . Keon omasL. Keon ThThomas Sincerely,

Dean

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

F lo r i da F o r eca s t 2009 - 2012 March 2009 Report

Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Barbie Barontini, Editor Elaine Vogt, Administrative Assistant Amanda Silvestri, Researcher Erin Garlow, Researcher Laura Burkstrand, Researcher Ana Restrepo, Marketing Intern

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright Š 2009 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved.

This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitiveness’ judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.

TABLE OF CONTENTS Florida Highlights and Summary........................ 5-10 Florida Forecast Tables...................................... 12-17 Florida Forecast Charts...................................... 19-26

Tab l e o f c o n t e n t s

Florida News Summaries....................................... 27 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach.......... 29-33 Gainesville......................................................... 34-38 Jacksonville....................................................... 39-43 Lakeland............................................................ 44-48 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach............... 49-53 Naples-Marco Island......................................... 54-58 Ocala................................................................. 59-63 Orlando-Kissimmee.......................................... 64-68 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville......................... 69-73 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent.............................. 74-78 Tallahassee........................................................ 79-83 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater.................... 84-88 Industry Location Quotient..................................... 89

F l o r i d a Summa r y

H igh l igh t s o f t he F l o r i d a F o r eca s t 2 0 0 9 -2 012 • Florida’s crushing job losses to continue to accumulate until the 2nd quarter of 2010.

After nearly three straight years of job losses, the climb out of this hole will take time; employment levels at the end of 2012 will still be below the pre-recession peak in 2007.

• Has Florida’s Ponzi scheme for financing government taken a turn for the Madoff?

• Payroll employment forecasted to shrink by 4.0% in 2009; after contracting by 3.2% in 2008, growth returns but remains weak in 2010 at just 0.9% (weighed down by Q1 and Q2). Solid growth returns in 2011-2012 when payrolls are expected to expand at an average rate of 2.7%.

• The only two sectors forecasted to average positive growth during 2009-2012 are Education and Health Services (2.5%) and Professional and Business Services (4.0%).

For the latter, average growth is driven by a surge in hiring in 2011 and 2012.

• Florida’s housing construction sector finally bottoms out deeper than many expected in 2009 Q2, falling to just 38,250 housing starts at an annual rate. This level of starts represents only 13% of the peak number of starts it reached in 2005 Q4: a stunning 87% decline in starts from peak to trough.

• Housing starts will climb at a very slow pace. In 2012 Q4, housing starts will recover to levels that were witnessed in 2000-2001.

• The still distressingly large inventory of houses and a slow-to-thaw credit freeze will conspire to cause additional declines in prices in most parts of Florida in 2009.

• House prices in many areas have fallen below replacement cost, a natural long-run floor for prices. In the wake of a large number of foreclosures and other distressed property sales, prices falling below this floor could persist until this excess supply is absorbed.

• The Construction sector will continue to shed jobs in 2009 at a double-digit pace, but job losses slow in 2010 to -4.8%, and the bleeding slows to a trickle in 2011 when the sector loses jobs at a rate of just -0.1%. The second half of 2011 will be the first time since 2007 Q1 that this sector added jobs.

• Real Gross State Product (GSP) growth was near zero in 2007 and contracted slightly in 2008 (-0.9%). Growth will turn very negative in 2009, contracting at -3.9% before accelerating to 3.9% in 2012.

• Unemployment rates continue their march to double digits in 2009. Unemployment will stay above 10% for most of 2010, before beginning a very slow decline from its peak. Unemployment will only fall to 8.6% by the end of 2012.

• Personal income growth will decelerate to just 1.0% in 2009 before growth begins to accelerate in 2010 to 3.3%. In 2011-2012, personal income growth will average 5.4%.

• Retail sales will contract for the first half of 2009. 2009 Q3 will turn positive thanks, in part, to the federal stimulus plan and improving confidence. Over the 2010-2012 time period, retail sales will grow at an average pace of 6.2% as consumer spending returns, fueled by pent-up demand.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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F l o r i d a Summa r y

F l o r i d a ’ s E c o n o m y: The c l imb o u t o f r ece s s i o n i n F l o r i d a i s a d au n t i n g t a s k w i t h o u t s t r o n g p o pu l a t i o n g r o w t h a n d a c o n s t r uc t i o n b o o m t o he l p F l o r i d a ’ s P o n z i s cheme f o r fi n a n ci n g g o v e r n me n t ha s t ake n a t u r n f o r t he M a d o ff Figure 1. Population Growth, Wherefore Art Thou?

The U.S. economy will be coming out of recession in the 4th quarter of 2009.

Florida will also emerge from recession but not until the 2nd quarter of 2010.

Shaded Bars = National Recessions Florida’s emergence from this recession has been complicated by the housing and 6 stock market busts. The extremely large 5 inventory of houses and condominiums 4 that are still languishing on the market will keep new construction 3 suppressed over the next year or two.

The drawdown of this inventory has 2 been hindered by the credit crisis and a 1 dramatic drop in the rate of population growth in the state.

0 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 The usual suspects that have powered Population % change year ago Florida out of earlier recessions - strong population growth and construction of this change in the cost of living that has taken place across the housing to shelter all of these new bodies state.

- will not be present in the post-recession period this time around. The housing slump has left plenty of available housing Briny Breezes is a mobile home park formed in the 1960’s in Florida, if we could only find bodies to put in that housing. located along State Road A1A, nestled between the Atlantic Ocean and the Intracoastal Waterway. Its residents are This absence of strong population growth is a new and unwelcome twist in the cycle for Florida and one that, perhaps, primarily full- or part-time retirees. The mobile home park made national headlines in late 2005 when a developer offered gives us a hint of a future yet to come. The short- and longin excess of $500 million to buy the entire park. This translated run demographic dynamics have changed. The long-run demographics have changed as a result of the economic growth into in an excess of $1 million for each mobile home and the ground on which the mobile home stood. Not bad, considering that Florida has experienced over the past several decades, and that many residents had paid between $30,000 and $40,000 the short-run demographics have been altered by the impact of when they originally purchased their homes. Old Florida meets the current economic cycle.

New Florida.

The long-run demographics of the state are changing. The The Briny Breezes deal ultimately fell through over other long-run trend toward lower population growth over the past non-price terms of the deal, but it is emblematic of the changing 30+ years is evident from Figure 1. The audacious growth rate cost of living in the state of Florida and the implications for of the population in the 1970’s has slowly given way to simply demographic trends in the state. No longer can an average blue strong growth in the 1990’s and the first half-decade of the collar worker from New Jersey afford to retire in an oceanfront new millennium. This trend of slowing population growth is a community in Florida. The cost of living in coastal areas, in reflection of the rise in the cost of living that has accompanied particular, has increased dramatically, not just the cost of real Florida’s economic expansion. estate but property taxes and property insurance as well. The Economic growth comes with a price, namely a rise in the housing bust has brought down prices from absurdly high levels, cost of living. Florida is no longer the low-cost destination for but the days of $30,000 oceanfront properties are long gone. business or migrants that it once was as a result of the economic Higher cost of living has led to an out-migration in recent growth that has taken place over the years. The small Briny years, as the population leaves the state in search of other lower Breezes coastal community in Palm Beach is a prime example of

Population Growth in Florida and Recessions

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Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

F l o r i d a Summa r y

cost options, such as Tennessee or the Carolinas. Coastal areas will experience slower population growth relative to interior parts of the state, as the cost of living is typically lower the further inland. This type of cost of living demographic churn that has become part of Florida’s population mosaic has been a part of California’s demographic story for many years.

Population growth in the Los Angeles area spread eastward into what has become know as the Inland Empire (RiversideSan Bernadino-Ontario MSA), driven primarily by affordable home ownership. The San Francisco Bay and Oakland regions in Northern California have started to spill over into the northern part of the Central Valley, the driver again being more affordable housing. Plenty of Californians have left the state in search of a lower cost of living elsewhere. The out-migration and coastal squeeze are new to Florida but not California.

Short-run demographic flows into the state have been choked off by the recession, the housing bust, and the deep plunge in the stock market. With overall payroll employment in the state contracting since 2007, there is little reason for job seekers to relocate to Florida. Couple this with a stock market that has conspired with the housing market to destroy trillions of dollars worth of retiree’s nest eggs, a situation that is forcing many to delay retirement dates for several years or more.

The bottom line is that population growth over the next several years will be lower than anything we have seen in the state in many decades. This will make the climb out of the hole that the state’s economy currently finds itself in a more daunting and prolonged task.

F l o r i d a ’ s B u d ge t C r i s i s Florida’s Ponzi scheme for financing government has taken a turn for the Madoff Another unpleasant aspect of the recession has been a worsening crisis in both the state and local governments’ fiscal situations. The budget shortfall grows larger with every new revenue announcement, and deep cuts have been made around the state with the promise of additional cuts yet to come.

Strong population growth has historically covered a multitude of sins, as Florida’s population growth has historically provided an increasing stream of revenue for governments, which has masked serious flaws in our tax system.

Unfortunately, the recession and the reversal in population growth that has hit the state have revealed this soft underbelly.

State and local governments have faced grave budget shortfalls, and school districts are facing catastrophic cuts.

Any Ponzi scheme can be sustained as long as new investors continue to be added to the pyramid. Problems emerge and the scheme breaks down when the inflow of new investors is no longer strong enough to provide payments to existing investors. We are seeing a breakdown in the financing of

government across Florida; the continuing influx of population that provided the additional revenues needed to prop the system up has evaporated, and the pyramid is collapsing all around us.

The already pock-marked tax base was chiseled away even further by the passage of Amendment 1 in January 2008. That magical amendment was going to jump start the economy and get the housing sector reinvigorated, remember?

So, what happened?

The housing market was virtually unaffected by the passage of this amendment and continued downward into a death spiral that, to this day, it is still struggling to pull out of. The effect that was felt is an even more dramatic cut to the funding of schools statewide. An already shamefully underfunded educational system is facing even deeper cuts that threaten to pull more teachers from the classroom and programs from our schools.

As far as I know, there are exactly two ways to close a budget shortfall: cut spending and/or raise revenue. Not exactly the most profound insight I have ever offered, but it is true, nonetheless. Florida will have to employ both methods, not only to solve its current crisis, but also to provide adequate revenue to properly fund government and ensure economic growth in the future. How might this be accomplished?

An income tax, of course, is the political third rail in Florida, and we wouldn’t want to lower Tiger Woods’ takehome pay, so that is off the table. That leads us back to existing taxes, namely sales and property taxes. Florida should move to close ALL exemptions from sales tax immediately (exemptions for bottled water and swimming pool chemicals – give me a break). Secondly, the sales tax should be extended to include services. As the economy continues to shift to a service base, more and more economic activity will take place in these areas, and taxing services will broaden the tax base and cushion the impact on revenue of future economic cycles.

Thirdly, a large portion (say, two-thirds) of these new revenues should be earmarked for activities that represent an investment in Florida’s future. Specifically, these revenues should go toward K-12 education funding, funding of higher education and university-based research, infrastructure projects around the state, and other economic development activities.

F l o r i d a’ s H o u s i n g M a r ke t Housing hasn’t exactly risen from the dead, but the rigor mortis has eased a bit.

We are still forecasting housing starts to hit their nadir in 2009 Q2. In that quarter, starts will be just 13% of what they were at the peak of the housing boom. A variety of economic and policy factors are in play that will help the housing sector to move more quickly toward balance between supply and demand. Once that balance returns, builders will Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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F l o r i d a Summa r y

have a greater incentive to build. This process will slowly play itself out over the next several years, when building will slowly accelerate as builders will be cautious after surviving the painful housing bust.

Figures 2 and 3 depict data from the housing market for existing homes as released by the Florida Association of Realtors (FAR) and cover the housing market through February of 2009.

Sales (Figure 2) have dramatically declined from the peak of the boom, and median prices have plummeted (Figure 3).

Any market in which there exists an excess supply will see downward pressure on prices as the market feels its way toward a new equilibrium.

Prices continue to fall as housing inventories remain elevated across the state. However, the steep drop in prices has stimulated sales. Sales have been above the 12-month moving average in Florida for eight of the past 11 months of reports from the FAR. The first two months of 2009, however, have seen sales fall below that 12-month moving average. Hopefully, this is a seasonal phenomena rather than a reversal of trend, though it should be noted that both sales figures were higher than the first two months of 2008.

Prices have fallen substantially, as Figure 3 clearly displays. In many parts of the state, prices have fallen below replacement costs. This is clearly a phenomenon that is shortrun in nature and that reflects a large number of distressed properties, foreclosures, and short sales. Over time, of course, prices will have to rise from these levels, as no builder will continue to build homes that can only be sold at a price lower than the cost of construction. We are likely seeing an overshooting of prices on the way down as we saw them overshoot at the top of this cycle.

Mortgage rates are low and that is great; unfortunately, it is still very difficult to get a mortgage. The sooner the credit crisis is rectified, the sooner the housing market will move toward 8

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

Figure 2. Housing Sales

Florida

Single Family, Existing Homes 30000 Realtor Sales

25000

Moving Average

20000 15000 10000 5000 0

Year

Data Source: Florida Association of Realtors

Figure 3. Housing Sales

Florida

Single Family, Existing Homes $300,000.00 $250,000.00

Median Sales Price Moving Average

$200,000.00 $150,000.00 $100,000.00 $50,000.00 $-

Data Source: Florida Association of Realtors

Year

F l o r i d a Summa r y

equilibrium and prices will stabilize. Newly detailed policies from the Fed and U.S. Treasury should help clear mortgagebacked assets from the balance sheets of financial institutions, easing the capital constraint these bonds have wrought upon those banks that hold them.

Ou t l o o k f o r F l o r i d a 2009-2012 G r o s s S t a t e P r o d uc t Florida’s economy continues to struggle in the midst of a recession that promises to last longer than the national recession, as the burden of the housing sector continues to bear down on the state. The national recession officially started in December 2007; Florida’s real Gross State Product (GSP) growth turned negative in that quarter as well, but stagnation had already afflicted the state to the extent that the 4th-quarter decline in real GSP essentially wiped away the paltry growth that had taken place in the first three quarters of the year.

The Florida economy contracted throughout 2008, even though the national economy expanded in the first half of that year. 2009 promises to be the most difficult year of the recession with real GSP expected to shrink by 3.9%. Recovery finally arrives in 2010, and real GSP is expected to grow at an accelerating pace over the course of the year. The first quarter starts off slowly with 0.6% growth, but real GSP accelerates to finish the year expanding at 4.4% in the 4th quarter of 2010.

Growth stays at that healthy pace and should average 4% over the next two years, 2011-12. The rate of growth is muted compared to the 5.2% average rate of growth during the 20032006 time frame during which real GSP hit a China-like peak growth rate of 7.3%.

Nominal Gross State Product is expected to reach nearly $831.5 billion by 2012, as Florida continues closing in on becoming a trillion-dollar economy, a threshold that keeps getting further away and one whose crossing we have now pushed back until 2016.

P e r s o n a l I n c o me , Re t ai l Sa l e s , a n d A u t o Sa l e s Personal income growth continues a deceleration that began in 2007 and will continue through 2009. Personal income growth will bottom out at just a 1.0% average growth rate in 2009. 2010, 2011, and 2012 will exhibit a steady acceleration in personal income growth as the economy begins to gain momentum after emerging from the longest recession in decades.

Soaring energy prices and a weak economy conspired to cause real personal income to contract in 2008 at 0.7%. Real personal income is expected to grow at a flat rate of just 1.9% in 2009 and 2010 before averaging a healthier 3.7% growth rate during 2011-2012.

Real disposable income growth will continue to be depressed by the floundering economy, though price deflation and tax cuts will boost real disposable income growth in 2009 to 3.3%. A continued worsening of labor markets and unemployment rates expected to peak at more than 10% for most of 2010 will result in a deceleration of growth to just 1.8% that year. In 2011-2012, the economy will be fully out of recession, and real disposable income will expand at a pace of 2.8%.

Florida’s consumers, like consumers across the nation, have been under siege on a variety of fronts. The housing bust has destroyed trillions of dollars of home equity, and credit market constraints have limited consumers’ abilities to access any home equity they might still have. The loss of this wealth and/ or access to it has a negative impact on consumer expenditures.

Households have seen nest eggs shrink in the wake of large declines in the stock market, and this has left consumers not only feeling poorer but having to reevaluate retirement plans and, in many cases, increase saving to rebuild decimated retirement accounts.

Increases in savings at a time when income growth is sluggish or worse necessarily involves a reduction in spending, and this pullback in spending is profoundly impacting retail sales, particularly spending on big-ticket items such as automobiles.

Consumer confidence continues to be weak, with a labor market that is poised to get worse before it starts to slowly get better. It is unlikely that the consumer will be the leading force that helps power Florida’s economy out of recession.

Retail sales declined in the second half of 2008 and contracted yet again in the first part of 2009. As we had predicted, the 2008 holiday shopping season was one of the worst in decades. Retail sales start to improve in the middle of 2009, as they rise in the second half of the year. Pent-up demand will lead to a faster rate of growth in 2010, and by the end of the year, sales will be at the same peak level reached at the end of 2007 before the slide in retail took hold.

The recession, credit crunch, and volatile energy prices will conspire to bring average new passenger car and truck registrations down overall for a fourth straight year. After four years of declines, we are forecasting new vehicle registrations to grow slightly again in the later half of 2009, but total registrations will be nearly 50% less than levels reached in 2004. In 2010, 2011, and 2012, an improving economy and the need to replace many vehicles in the aging fleet currently on the road will combine to drive new vehicle registration growth higher but at levels on par with those recorded in 1998.

E mp l o y me n t Payroll employment growth in the state is expected to shrink by 4.0% in 2009; this figure is compared to the national job growth rate of -3.1% for the same year. Job losses continue Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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F l o r i d a Summa r y

into the 1st quarter of 2010, as payroll employment shrinks 0.9% in the first three months of the year. Even though payrolls begin to grow in the second half of the year, the full year will see just a 0.9% increase in jobs. Once payroll growth takes root, it will slowly gain momentum throughout 2011, a year when job growth is expected to come in at 2.5% and reach 2.8% in 2012. When job growth finally does turn positive in 2010 Q2, it will be after 11 straight quarters of negative payroll growth and nearly three full years of job losses.

The Construction sector, which has been crumbling since peaking in 2006 during the housing boom, will continue to show the painful effects of the credit crunch and languishing residential and further deterioration of commercial construction markets. Despite the economic stimulus bill, this sector will be the worst-performing sector in the economy.

Housing starts have fallen dramatically and are expected to decline further, and the bottom is expected to be hit at the end of 2009 Q2, as a poorly functioning credit market has compounded the misery. Cumulative job losses in the sector will reach nearly 270,000 by the end of the 3rd quarter of 2010, after which an initially slow recovery in homebuilding will start to gain momentum. Job growth will not return to this sector until the second quarter of 2011. Growth is expected to average a respectable 2.8% in 2011 and surge to 6.4% in 2012.

The Professional and Business Services sector is a sector that, once the economy gets past the recession, will resume robust growth in Florida. In 2010, job growth is expected to rise to 3.7% after two-and-a-half years of job losses. Job gains accelerate from there and rise to 11.8% in 2011 and cool slightly to 7.4% in 2012.

The Information sector will continue to shed jobs through the third quarter of 2010; newspapers continue to struggle to find the right business model in an environment that has been both complicated by technology as well as in some areas rendered nearly obsolete. The transition to an Internetcentric model led many papers to cut jobs in the newsroom and elsewhere, but many are discovering that Web readers are fickle and have the attention span of a gnat with ADD. It turns out that you need content that is being updated 24/7 and not just once every morning in order to keep these precocious browsers clicking away and running up the page view totals. It still takes people to deliver content in this brave new world. 2011 will be the first year of job growth in this sector after eight of the nine prior years witnessed job losses.

Job growth will surge to 3.4% in 2011 and slow, but still grow, in 2012 at a 1.0% rate.

The one sector that has created jobs during this recession thus far and is expected to continue to expand through the duration of it and beyond is the Education and Health sector.

In particular, the Health sector must have received its recession immunization and appears to be resistant, but not completely immune, to the effects of this downturn, as job creation in 10

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

this sector has continued in the midst of the worst recession in decades. During 2009-2012, employment in this sector is expected to expand at an average rate of 2.5%. What is even more remarkable is that the average growth rate for payroll employment during the same time frame is only 0.6%.

Manufacturing will continue to contract in Florida through 2010. During the 2000-2010 time frame, a total of 250,000 jobs in Florida’s manufacturing sector will have been lost.

The dual forces of globalization and productivity gains in manufacturing have conspired to shrink employment in this sector. We are expecting to see job growth of 2.7% in this sector for the full year in 2011, and this will be followed by an encore year of job growth in 2012 when manufacturing employment will expand at a rate of 2.3%. For the first time since the mid 1990’s, manufacturing is expected to gain jobs in two consecutive years.

U n emp l o y me n t Unemployment rates in the state plunged to levels that seemed almost impossibly low during the white-hot housing market. Florida’s unemployment rate was more than a full percentage point below the historically low U.S. unemployment rate. As the housing sector has imploded, the unemployment rate has reversed course with a vengeance.

Unemployment in Florida has now surged higher than the national rate of unemployment, though we expect that the national rate of unemployment will remain below Florida’s rate, though both will peak in 2010. After the peak, Florida’s unemployment rate will decline more slowly and remain above the national unemployment rate as the recovery plays itself out.

How high does unemployment get? We are expecting unemployment to rise to 10.0% by the end of 2009 and remain at that level through much of 2010 where it will peak at 10.4% and plateau for several quarters before beginning a slow decline through the end of 2012. For the reasons addressed above, there is no reason to believe that there will be a rapid reversal in the unemployment rate over the forecast horizon without a boost from the usual suspects: population growth and a construction boom.

Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2001

2002

2003

2004

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch Year ago)

478.6 4.6 3.5 468.8 2.5 6.6 410.3 3.0 1.9 497.4 5.5 484.9 2.9

495.5 3.5 1.8 478.5 2.1 0.7 428.2 4.4 3.1 522.7 5.1 497.3 2.6

514.4 3.8 3.2 487.1 1.8 3.2 442.1 3.3 2.2 559.0 6.9 520.4 4.6

565.7 10.0 6.1 521.8 7.1 11.8 471.1 6.5 3.6 607.3 8.6 548.6 5.4

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

0.7 1.6 4.7 4.7

0.5 1.6 5.7 5.8

Total nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't.

State & Local Gov't.

Population (thous.) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous.) (%Ch Year ago) Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous.)

Housing Starts Single Family (thous.)

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous.) (%Ch Year ago)

2005

March 2009 2006

2007

2008

Personal Income and GSP 614.4 668.5 699.3 717.4 8.6 8.8 4.6 2.6 5.6 7.1 6.1 3.7 550.6 582.9 594.3 590.1 5.5 5.9 2.0 -0.7 5.9 7.9 1.4 2.6 489.1 517.2 524.8 526.0 3.8 5.7 1.5 0.2 1.4 3.5 2.8 1.3 670.2 716.5 734.5 743.1 10.4 6.9 2.5 1.2 588.8 609.8 609.9 604.4 7.3 3.6 0.0 -0.9

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % C 1.6 2.7 3.8 3.5 1.5 -0.7 1.2 2.1 2.9 3.0 2.2 1.6 5.3 4.7 3.8 3.4 4.1 6.2 6.0 5.5 5.1 4.6 4.6 5.8

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Chang 0.0 1.3 -7.8 3.5 -4.9 -6.4 -4.1 -0.9 -0.2 -0.4 1.4 2.9 3.1 1.8 0.3 -2.4 2.9

-1.1 0.1 -10.3 1.2 -6.0 -3.7 -7.1 -2.9 -0.2 -1.2 1.2 0.2 2.7 0.4 -5.7 0.4 1.7

-0.3 1.1 -1.2 9.4 -1.6 -0.3 -2.3 -0.9 0.5 0.7 3.6 -8.3 5.8 5.3 -3.7 3.4 1.1

1.1 3.4 0.2 9.4 0.2 -2.1 1.4 1.6 3.4 2.7 3.8 5.8 3.0 4.4 -2.1 0.4 1.4

1.7 4.0 -0.8 11.4 1.2 -1.8 2.6 3.8 4.1 4.1 5.0 7.1 2.5 2.7 0.2 1.5 1.4

1.8 2.6 -6.5 7.2 0.2 -2.0 1.3 1.5 2.9 2.0 3.2 4.2 2.7 1.5 -0.9 -0.8 2.0

1.1 0.2 1.6 -8.8 -4.2 -1.5 -5.4 0.1 1.5 0.5 -1.0 0.7 3.1 2.0 -0.3 0.2 2.4

t ab l e s

F l o r i d a F OR E C A ST

-0.4 -3.2 -5.2 -17.1 -6.6 -6.3 -6.8 -2.8 -2.4 -2.9 -3.7 -5.3 2.3 -1.4 -3.5 1.3 0.4

Population and Migration 16,380.5 16,686.2 16,989.6 17,362.5 17,737.0 18,032.9 18,212.3 18,344.6 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.2 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.7 66.0 64.8 71.9 83.8 72.9 44.7 22.7 18.7 6.8 -1.4 12.2 19.2 -12.9 -41.0 -45.9 -11.4 167.6 125.7 41.9

182.7 133.6 49.1

207.7 159.9 47.9

238.8 183.1 55.6

272.9 211.6 61.3

Housing 204.8 101.6 156.3 74.7 48.5 26.9

62.3 42.0 20.3

2.5

1.7

2.6

3.0

4.5

Consumer Prices 4.2 3.4

3.9

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch Year ago)

478.6 4.6 3.5 468.8 2.5 6.6 410.3 3.0 1.9 497.4 5.5 484.9 2.9

495.5 3.5 1.8 478.5 2.1 0.7 428.2 4.4 3.1 522.7 5.1 497.3 2.6

514.4 3.8 3.2 487.1 1.8 3.2 442.1 3.3 2.2 559.0 6.9 520.4 4.6

565.7 10.0 6.1 521.8 7.1 11.8 471.1 6.5 3.6 607.3 8.6 548.6 5.4

Personal Income and GSP 614.4 668.5 699.3 717.4 8.6 8.8 4.6 2.6 5.6 7.1 6.1 3.7 550.6 582.9 594.3 590.1 5.5 5.9 2.0 -0.7 5.9 7.9 1.4 2.6 489.1 517.2 524.8 526.0 3.8 5.7 1.5 0.2 1.4 3.5 2.8 1.3 670.2 716.5 734.5 743.1 10.4 6.9 2.5 1.2 588.8 609.8 609.9 604.4 7.3 3.6 0.0 -0.9

724.3 1.0 0.6 601.5 1.9 -2.6 543.4 3.3 2.9 721.9 -2.8 581.1 -3.9

747.9 3.3 2.5 612.8 1.9 4.3 553.4 1.8 0.9 748.9 3.7 597.7 2.9

786.6 5.2 4.4 633.6 3.4 3.7 568.3 2.7 1.9 789.3 5.4 622.2 4.1

831.6 5.7 4.9 658.9 4.0 3.3 584.6 2.9 2.3 831.4 5.3 646.6 3.9

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

0.7 1.6 4.7 4.7

0.5 1.6 5.7 5.8

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) 1.6 2.7 3.8 3.5 1.5 -0.7 -2.6 -0.1 1.2 2.1 2.9 3.0 2.2 1.6 1.3 0.5 5.3 4.7 3.8 3.4 4.1 6.2 9.8 10.3 6.0 5.5 5.1 4.6 4.6 5.8 8.7 9.4

1.7 0.7 9.5 8.8

1.8 1.0 8.8 8.1

1.5 2.5 -0.3 2.8 2.7 -0.8 4.4 3.0 1.8 -0.9 1.4 11.8 2.8 0.1 3.4 -2.6 -0.4

1.9 2.8 2.7 6.4 2.3 0.0 3.4 4.8 3.1 1.0 2.3 7.4 1.9 2.6 1.0 -0.8 0.3

Total nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't.

State & Local Gov't.

Population (thous.) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous.) (%Ch Year ago) Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous.)

Housing Starts Single Family (thous.)

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous.) (%Ch Year ago)

12

2006

2007

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) 0.0 1.3 -7.8 3.5 -4.9 -6.4 -4.1 -0.9 -0.2 -0.4 1.4 2.9 3.1 1.8 0.3 -2.4 2.9

-1.1 0.1 -10.3 1.2 -6.0 -3.7 -7.1 -2.9 -0.2 -1.2 1.2 0.2 2.7 0.4 -5.7 0.4 1.7

-0.3 1.1 -1.2 9.4 -1.6 -0.3 -2.3 -0.9 0.5 0.7 3.6 -8.3 5.8 5.3 -3.7 3.4 1.1

1.1 3.4 0.2 9.4 0.2 -2.1 1.4 1.6 3.4 2.7 3.8 5.8 3.0 4.4 -2.1 0.4 1.4

1.7 4.0 -0.8 11.4 1.2 -1.8 2.6 3.8 4.1 4.1 5.0 7.1 2.5 2.7 0.2 1.5 1.4

1.8 2.6 -6.5 7.2 0.2 -2.0 1.3 1.5 2.9 2.0 3.2 4.2 2.7 1.5 -0.9 -0.8 2.0

1.1 0.2 1.6 -8.8 -4.2 -1.5 -5.4 0.1 1.5 0.5 -1.0 0.7 3.1 2.0 -0.3 0.2 2.4

-0.4 -3.2 -5.2 -17.1 -6.6 -6.3 -6.8 -2.8 -2.4 -2.9 -3.7 -5.3 2.3 -1.4 -3.5 1.3 0.4

-3.1 -4.0 -2.4 -15.6 -9.9 -8.2 -10.7 -7.1 -2.9 -4.1 -4.0 -6.8 2.5 -3.0 -7.9 0.3 -0.5

-0.1 0.9 -2.4 -5.5 -3.8 -4.4 -3.5 -0.4 0.6 3.0 0.0 3.7 2.9 -0.1 -3.1 1.5 0.2

Population and Migration 16,380.5 16,686.2 16,989.6 17,362.5 17,737.0 18,032.9 18,212.3 18,344.6 18,436.2 18,523.4 18,657.9 18,851.9 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.2 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 66.0 64.8 71.9 83.8 72.9 44.7 22.7 18.7 4.0 13.0 25.9 40.7 6.8 -1.4 12.2 19.2 -12.9 -41.0 -45.9 -11.4 -78.4 222.8 101.2 57.9 167.6 125.7 41.9

182.7 133.6 49.1

207.7 159.9 47.9

238.8 183.1 55.6

272.9 211.6 61.3

Housing 204.8 101.6 156.3 74.7 48.5 26.9

62.3 42.0 20.3

43.8 27.7 16.1

93.0 69.7 23.4

135.5 110.1 25.4

161.8 128.1 33.7

2.5

1.7

2.6

3.0

4.5

Consumer Prices 4.2 3.4

3.9

-1.7

1.7

2.2

2.2

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch Year ago)

716.7 1.2 2.1 590.0 -0.7 0.8 526.2 0.3 0.9 735.2 -0.7 594.3 -2.7

719.1 1.1 1.0 596.4 0.9 -2.0 534.6 1.5 2.1 726.3 -2.2 584.5 -3.9

723.9 0.3 0.7 602.4 1.4 -3.1 541.1 2.1 1.5 718.5 -3.6 579.2 -4.9

725.4 0.8 0.1 602.9 3.0 -3.8 548.1 5.1 4.3 719.2 -3.9 578.8 -4.4

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

-0.7 2.1 7.3 6.9

-2.4 1.9 9.2 7.9

-2.4 1.8 9.7 8.5

-2.8 1.1 10.1 9.1

-1.6 -4.3 -5.5 -18.2 -7.3 -8.4 -6.8 -6.4 -3.2 -5.2 -3.8 -6.3 2.2 -3.8 -5.9 1.3 -0.3

742.9 2.6 1.4 610.1 1.3 4.3 551.0 1.8 0.3 743.9 3.5 594.8 2.7

Personal Income and GSP 752.8 761.8 771.7 3.8 4.6 5.1 3.0 3.7 4.3 615.2 620.0 625.2 2.0 2.6 3.2 5.3 5.3 4.8 556.2 559.7 561.3 1.5 1.8 2.7 0.6 0.9 1.7 754.0 764.2 774.3 4.8 5.6 5.6 600.8 607.2 612.9 3.8 4.4 4.2

781.3 5.2 4.4 630.5 3.3 3.9 565.7 2.7 1.9 783.9 5.4 618.8 4.0

791.6 5.2 4.4 636.5 3.5 3.3 570.7 2.6 1.9 794.6 5.4 625.4 4.1

801.7 5.2 4.5 642.1 3.6 2.9 575.4 2.8 2.2 804.5 5.3 631.5 4.0

812.0 5.2 4.5 647.7 3.6 2.9 576.2 2.6 2.2 814.5 5.2 636.7 3.9

824.6 5.5 4.8 654.8 3.9 3.2 581.8 2.8 2.3 825.5 5.3 643.2 3.9

838.0 5.9 5.0 662.5 4.1 3.4 587.3 2.9 2.3 837.0 5.3 649.9 3.9

852.0 6.3 5.3 670.4 4.4 3.4 593.2 3.1 2.4 848.8 5.5 656.6 4.0

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) -2.9 -0.9 -0.3 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.0 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.3 10.2 9.8 9.6 9.4 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.2 9.1 8.9 8.7 8.6

1.7 0.9 9.1 8.4

1.8 1.0 8.8 8.2

1.9 1.0 8.7 8.1

1.8 1.1 8.6 7.9

-2.9 -4.8 -3.8 -18.3 -9.0 -9.1 -9.0 -8.3 -3.5 -6.1 -4.4 -6.8 2.0 -4.2 -8.1 0.8 -0.6

-3.3 -4.5 -1.0 -16.3 -9.8 -8.8 -10.3 -8.2 -3.1 -5.8 -4.1 -7.4 2.8 -3.7 -8.2 0.3 -0.2

-3.4 -3.9 -1.5 -15.0 -10.5 -8.2 -11.6 -7.0 -3.0 -4.0 -4.1 -7.0 2.8 -2.9 -8.3 -0.1 -0.6

1.8 2.7 2.3 6.3 2.7 0.0 3.9 4.9 3.0 -1.0 2.1 9.4 2.4 2.2 1.9 -0.9 -0.7

1.9 2.8 2.9 6.8 2.4 0.0 3.6 4.9 3.2 0.6 2.4 7.6 2.0 2.7 0.8 -0.8 -0.1

1.9 2.8 2.9 6.6 2.3 0.0 3.3 4.8 3.2 1.9 2.4 6.5 1.8 2.7 0.6 -0.7 0.4

1.9 2.8 2.7 6.1 1.9 0.0 2.8 4.5 3.0 2.5 2.2 6.0 1.6 2.7 0.6 -0.6 1.6

-2.8 -2.7 -3.1 -12.6 -10.2 -6.7 -11.8 -4.9 -1.9 -0.7 -3.3 -6.2 2.3 -1.1 -6.9 0.3 -0.4

-1.4 -0.9 -3.2 -9.2 -7.7 -5.6 -8.8 -2.5 -0.4 1.9 -1.7 -2.4 2.5 -0.4 -5.5 3.3 0.1

-0.4 0.6 -2.6 -6.9 -5.5 -5.0 -5.7 -0.9 0.8 3.9 -0.1 2.1 2.7 -0.1 -4.5 2.7 0.2

0.4 1.5 -2.0 -3.9 -2.2 -4.0 -1.3 0.6 1.0 3.6 0.7 5.5 3.1 0.3 -2.4 0.6 0.3

1.0 2.2 -1.7 -1.9 0.2 -2.8 1.7 1.3 1.1 2.7 0.9 9.6 3.3 -0.2 0.1 -0.5 0.1

1.2 2.4 -1.4 0.0 2.0 -1.7 3.8 1.9 1.2 1.0 1.1 11.8 3.1 -0.5 2.4 -4.1 -0.1

1.4 2.4 -0.9 2.1 3.1 -0.9 5.1 2.4 1.4 -0.8 1.3 12.1 2.8 -0.4 4.1 -3.6 -0.4

1.6 2.6 -0.1 4.0 3.0 -0.3 4.6 3.3 2.0 -1.8 1.6 12.2 2.7 0.2 4.0 -1.7 -0.5

1.7 2.7 1.1 5.3 2.8 -0.1 4.3 4.5 2.8 -1.8 1.8 11.2 2.6 1.3 2.9 -1.0 -0.7

Population and Migration

18,393.3 18,410.9 18,427.7 18,444.5 18,461.9 18,484.7 18,508.8 18,535.2 18,564.9 18,598.4 18,635.6 18,676.5 18,721.1 18,769.5 18,821.7 18,877.5 18,939.1

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous.)

Housing Starts Single Family (thous.)

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous.) (%Ch Year ago)

734.1 2.1 1.7 605.9 1.6 2.4 546.7 2.3 1.9 733.2 1.0 587.9 0.6

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago)

Total nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't.

State & Local Gov't.

Population (thous.) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous.) (%Ch Year ago)

728.6 1.7 0.7 604.2 2.4 -1.4 549.8 4.5 3.6 723.5 -1.6 581.8 -2.1

0.7 19.1 11.1

0.6 4.3 -75.8

0.5 3.7 -80.5

0.5 3.8 -80.1

0.4 4.4 -77.1

0.4 10.0 130.6

0.4 11.3 210.4

0.5 13.7 262.6

0.6 17.0 287.5

0.6 20.6 105.5

0.7 24.1 113.0

0.8 27.7 102.6

0.8 31.3 83.8

0.9 34.8 69.3

1.0 38.4 59.1

1.1 41.9 51.4

1.2 47.5 51.9

49.1 31.9 17.2

40.8 23.0 17.7

38.3 22.7 15.6

43.3 28.3 15.0

52.9 36.8 16.1

64.7 47.7 16.9

88.7 62.9 25.8

103.4 77.5 25.8

Housing 115.4 90.5 24.9

125.2 100.4 24.8

132.1 107.7 24.4

138.2 113.2 25.0

146.5 119.2 27.4

153.3 122.6 30.7

159.9 127.8 32.1

165.7 130.9 34.8

168.1 131.0 37.1

1.5

-0.5

-1.9

-3.3

-0.9

0.5

1.7

Consumer Prices 2.2 2.4 2.3

2.2

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

13

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 3. Employment Quarterly* 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7,621.4 7,514.2 7,452.7 7,424.0 7,417.0 7,446.9 7,495.3 7,538.5 7,581.1 7,629.0 7,678.1 7,734.1 7,786.8 7,836.6 7,890.9 7,947.9 8,007.0

Manufacturing

361.7

348.8

339.1

330.4

325.0

321.9

320.6

323.0

325.6

328.2

330.6

332.6

334.8

336.9

338.6

340.1

341.2

Durable Goods

235.2

244.7

234.6

226.5

219.6

215.8

214.0

213.7

216.7

219.5

222.2

224.6

226.6

228.9

230.9

232.7

234.1

Wood Products

16.3

15.6

15.3

14.8

14.7

14.6

14.7

14.9

15.1

15.4

15.6

15.7

15.9

16.1

16.2

16.2

16.3

Computer & Electronics

47.4

46.4

45.4

45.3

45.6

47.5

47.7

48.0

48.5

48.9

49.2

49.6

50.0

50.3

50.5

50.6

50.6

Transportation Equipment 1,523.1 1,435.6 1,362.1 1,309.2 1,279.1 1,257.4 1,256.7 1,277.5 1,290.9 1,300.1 1,308.7 1,318.6 1,335.0 1,354.8 1,375.1 1,393.4 1,408.8 Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining Construction

117.0

114.2

112.6

110.8

109.2

107.9

106.9

106.3

106.1

106.0

106.0

106.0

106.0

106.0

106.0

106.0

106.0

28.3

28.3

28.4

28.5

28.5

28.5

28.4

28.4

28.4

28.3

28.3

28.2

28.2

28.2

28.1

28.1

28.1

7,259.7 7,165.4 7,113.7 7,093.6 7,092.0 7,125.0 7,174.7 7,215.5 7,255.5 7,300.9 7,347.5 7,401.6 7,451.9 7,499.7 7,552.3 7,607.8 7,665.8 6.3

6.3

6.2

6.2

6.1

6.1

6.1

6.1

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.1

6.1

6.2

6.2

6.2

6.3

475.9

452.7

437.8

423.0

415.9

411.0

407.7

406.4

408.1

411.1

416.1

422.4

429.7

437.0

444.4

450.4

455.8

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

235.6

230.1

227.6

225.0

224.1

224.4

225.5

226.3

226.9

228.7

231.0

233.9

237.1

239.9

242.4

245.2

247.8

Wholesale Trade

344.1

340.1

337.5

337.3

337.6

338.6

340.0

340.7

341.1

342.6

344.6

347.5

350.5

353.0

355.6

358.5

361.1

Retail Trade

961.2

948.4

939.4

945.4

954.5

966.5

976.0

979.8

980.1

976.4

968.2

962.1

962.3

966.6

973.6

980.2

985.9

Information

150.5

146.7

144.4

142.2

140.1

138.7

137.9

138.7

140.3

141.9

143.6

144.2

144.4

144.6

144.8

145.0

145.3

Prof. & Business Services

1,122.5 1,090.3 1,070.0 1,062.0 1,053.2 1,064.2 1,092.4 1,120.6 1,154.3 1,189.7 1,224.5 1,256.8 1,284.0 1,301.5 1,318.0 1,338.4 1,360.7

Admin. & Support

593.5

564.8

547.3

546.4

543.8

557.1

586.0

614.3

643.9

675.5

705.4

733.6

757.1

772.6

786.7

804.1

823.4

Prof. Sci & Tech

448.0

444.0

440.8

433.3

426.8

424.0

422.8

422.3

425.8

429.1

433.3

436.9

440.0

441.6

443.3

445.5

448.0

Mgmt. of Co. Financial Activities

81.1

81.4

81.9

82.3

82.6

83.1

83.5

84.0

84.6

85.1

85.7

86.3

86.9

87.4

88.0

88.7

89.4

520.5

512.6

505.6

502.3

503.1

504.0

504.9

505.9

507.9

509.5

511.4

513.9

517.1

520.0

523.5

526.5

528.5

Real Estate & Rent

172.1

170.6

169.8

169.4

169.5

169.8

170.3

170.9

171.5

172.2

173.0

173.7

174.4

175.2

176.0

176.8

177.5

Fin. & Insurance

348.4

342.0

335.8

332.9

333.6

334.1

334.6

335.0

336.4

337.3

338.5

340.2

342.7

344.9

347.5

349.7

351.1

Edu. & Health Service Education Services Health Services

1,057.5 1,062.9 1,072.3 1,077.2 1,082.1 1,089.5 1,101.3 1,110.4 1,117.8 1,123.8 1,132.2 1,140.6 1,146.6 1,150.6 1,155.4 1,160.7 1,164.6 140.2

139.2

138.2

137.3

136.7

136.6

137.2

138.2

139.1

140.1

141.1

142.0

142.9

143.6

144.2

144.9

145.6

998.6 1,003.8 1,007.0 1,011.2 1,015.9 1,019.0

917.3

923.7

934.0

939.9

945.4

953.0

964.1

972.2

978.6

983.7

991.1

Leisure & Hospitality

923.6

917.3

915.8

912.2

913.1

913.7

914.8

914.5

911.3

909.2

910.8

916.4

922.8

929.1

935.0

940.7

947.9

Other Services

335.5

333.2

332.8

337.2

339.4

338.7

338.4

338.8

338.7

338.3

338.0

337.4

336.7

335.8

334.2

333.2

332.5

Government

1,126.5 1,124.9 1,124.3 1,123.7 1,122.9 1,129.8 1,129.7 1,127.3 1,123.0 1,123.8 1,121.0 1,120.3 1,114.6 1,115.5 1,119.1 1,122.8 1,129.4

Federal Gov't.

129.8

130.1

130.0

129.8

130.1

134.4

133.4

130.6

129.4

129.0

128.7

128.4

128.1

127.8

127.6

127.4

State & Local Gov't.

996.7

994.8

994.3

993.9

992.7

995.4

996.3

996.7

993.5

994.8

992.4

991.9

986.5

987.6

991.5

995.3 1,002.0

*Quarterly at an annual rate

14

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

127.3

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 4. Employment Annual 2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7,160.0 7,169.1 7,250.4 7,499.3 7,800.0 8,002.4 8,018.5 7,761.1 7,452.0 7,515.4 7707.01 7,920.6

Manufacturing

443.4

416.7

409.8

410.7

415.5

416.4

399.0

372.6

335.8

322.8

331.5

339.2

Durable Goods

297.8

276.5

270.0

273.8

281.0

284.6

269.2

250.9

224.1

216.0

225.6

233.2

Wood Products

17.2

18.1

17.6

18.2

18.7

18.9

17.9

16.7

15.1

14.8

15.6

16.2

Computer & Electronics

67.2

59.1

53.4

52.5

51.4

50.1

49.2

48.0

45.7

47.9

49.4

50.5

Transportation Equipment Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

1,938.7 1,829.8 1,775.1 1,766.7 1,772.3 1,768.9 1,711.8 1,606.0 1,346.5 1,270.6 1,315.6 1,383.0 145.6

140.2

139.8

136.9

134.5

131.8

129.8

121.7

111.7

106.8

106.0

106.0

34.6

34.6

34.1

33.3

32.4

31.2

31.4

29.5

28.4

28.4

28.3

28.1

6,716.6 6,752.4 6,840.5 7,088.6 7,384.6 7,586.0 7,619.5 7,388.5 7,116.2 7,192.7 7,375.5 7,581.4 8.0

7.2

7.1

7.1

7.1

6.6

6.7

6.4

6.2

6.1

6.0

6.2

Construction

469.6

475.1

519.7

568.5

633.1

677.9

618.6

512.8

432.3

408.3

419.8

446.9

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

243.8

236.8

234.7

238.3

247.3

250.9

251.0

244.1

226.7

225.8

232.6

243.8

Wholesale Trade

316.4

315.7

317.3

328.0

341.4

351.4

356.7

348.1

338.1

340.1

346.3

357.0

Retail Trade

933.0

921.6

928.4

953.7

993.1 1,012.8 1,017.5

988.2

946.9

975.6

967.3

976.6

Information

183.4

172.8

166.3

162.9

163.2

155.6

143.3

138.9

143.5

144.9

Prof. & Business Services

161.7

161.3

1,110.7 1,112.7 1,020.3 1,079.5 1,155.5 1,203.6 1,211.9 1,147.4 1,068.9 1,107.8 1,238.7 1,329.7

Admin. & Support

678.2

673.6

563.7

600.6

646.8

672.9

670.9

610.3

550.6

600.3

717.9

796.7

Prof. Sci & Tech

366.6

370.1

384.9

404.0

431.1

451.4

460.0

455.3

436.2

423.7

434.8

444.6

65.8

69.0

71.8

75.0

77.7

79.3

81.0

81.9

82.1

83.8

86.0

88.4

Financial Activities

469.3

474.9

491.8

510.4

535.8

552.6

547.2

526.9

505.9

505.7

513.0

524.6

Real Estate & Rent

147.0

150.2

157.7

166.5

176.6

182.4

178.1

173.2

169.8

170.6

173.3

176.4

Fin. & Insurance

322.4

324.7

334.1

343.9

359.1

370.2

369.2

353.7

336.1

335.0

339.7

348.3

Edu. & Health Service

844.2

867.3

917.5

944.7

967.8

993.6 1,024.1 1,047.3 1,073.6 1,104.8 1,135.8 1,157.8

Education Services

94.5

99.7

110.0

118.7

124.6

128.3

134.1

137.9

137.8

137.8

141.5

749.7

767.6

807.5

826.0

843.3

865.3

890.0

909.4

935.8

967.0

994.3 1,013.3

Mgmt. of Co.

Health Services

144.6

Leisure & Hospitality

815.5

818.9

862.0

899.9

924.3

937.7

956.4

942.9

914.6

913.5

914.8

938.2

Other Services

299.4

310.2

322.3

329.4

334.9

338.0

345.5

340.6

335.6

338.6

337.6

334.0

Government

1,023.3 1,039.2 1,053.0 1,066.3 1,081.1 1,099.1 1,122.6 1,128.0 1,123.9 1,127.5 1,119.9 1,121.7

Federal Gov't.

121.7

122.2

126.3

126.8

128.7

127.7

128.0

129.6

130.0

132.0

128.5

127.6

State & Local Gov't.

901.5

917.0

926.8

939.5

952.4

971.4

994.6

998.4

993.9

995.5

991.4

994.1

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

15

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly* 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

716.7

719.1

723.9

725.4

728.6

734.1

742.9

752.8

761.8

771.7

781.3

791.6

801.7

812.0

824.6

838.0

852.0

Wages & Salaries

334.4

331.9

331.8

332.0

333.2

336.1

339.9

343.6

347.3

351.6

355.3

359.2

363.1

367.3

371.6

376.4

381.5

Other Labor Income

73.2

74.8

75.1

75.9

76.8

77.9

79.4

81.0

82.3

83.6

85.0

86.2

87.4

88.5

89.7

91.0

92.2

Nonfarm

39.3

38.8

38.8

38.8

39.3

39.9

40.5

40.9

41.4

41.8

42.1

42.3

42.6

43.0

43.4

43.7

44.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Property Income

196.3

191.6

191.2

189.0

186.5

185.6

186.9

190.1

193.0

196.9

200.6

204.9

208.8

213.2

218.6

224.6

230.9

Transfer Payments

Farm

122.4

131.7

136.2

139.1

142.0

144.6

146.4

147.7

148.9

150.1

151.1

152.2

153.5

154.9

156.6

158.3

160.2

Social Insurance

51.2

51.7

51.2

51.4

51.3

52.1

52.2

52.6

53.2

54.3

54.9

55.3

55.9

57.1

57.6

58.4

59.2

Personal Income

590.0

596.4

602.4

602.9

604.2

605.9

610.1

615.2

620.0

625.2

630.5

636.5

642.1

647.7

654.8

662.5

670.4

Wages & Salaries

275.3

275.3

276.1

275.9

276.3

277.4

279.1

280.8

282.7

284.9

286.7

288.8

290.8

293.0

295.1

297.6

300.2

Other Labor Income

60.3

62.1

62.5

63.1

63.7

64.3

65.2

66.2

67.0

67.7

68.6

69.3

70.0

70.6

71.3

71.9

72.6

Nonfarm

32.4

32.2

32.2

32.3

32.6

32.9

33.3

33.5

33.7

33.8

33.9

34.0

34.1

34.3

34.5

34.6

34.7

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Property Income

161.6

158.9

159.1

157.0

154.7

153.2

153.5

155.3

157.1

159.5

161.9

164.7

167.3

170.0

173.6

177.6

181.7

Transfer Payments

100.8

109.2

113.3

115.6

117.8

119.4

120.2

120.7

121.2

121.6

122.0

122.4

122.9

123.5

124.3

125.2

126.0

42.1

42.9

42.6

42.7

42.5

43.0

42.9

43.0

43.3

44.0

44.3

44.5

44.8

45.6

45.8

46.2

46.6

Billions 2000 Dollars

Farm

Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

747.0

756.4

784.7

839.5

879.2

956.6 1017.1 1046.8 1065.5 1077.1

1099 1117.8 1151.4 1166.2 1188.6

1203 1204.9

Retail Sales (Billions $)

252.1

244.8

242.1

245.5

249.3

254.4

259.2

263.9

267.8

271.3

274.7

278.7

283.0

286.6

291.0

295.5

299.7

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

207.5

203.0

201.4

204.0

206.8

210.0

212.9

215.6

218.0

219.8

221.7

224.1

226.7

228.6

231.1

233.6

235.8

*Quarterly at an annual rate

16

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Personal Income

478.6

495.5

514.4

565.7

614.4

668.5

699.3

717.4

724.3

747.9

786.6

831.6

Wages & Salaries

239.2

247.1

258.7

279.5

303.0

325.2

335.5

335.4

332.2

341.7

357.3

374.2

Billions Current Dollars

Other Labor Income

47.6

51.8

56.2

61.5

68.2

71.1

72.2

73.0

75.7

80.1

85.5

90.4

Nonfarm

27.6

29.0

30.7

33.8

37.0

39.9

39.8

39.7

38.9

40.7

42.2

43.5

Farm Property Income

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.5

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

122.9

122.0

120.1

136.7

152.1

176.7

190.5

197.7

189.6

188.9

202.8

221.8

Transfer Payments

74.4

80.4

85.5

94.6

98.5

103.6

110.4

120.8

137.2

146.9

151.7

157.5

Social Insurance

35.5

37.1

39.1

42.5

46.4

49.8

51.1

51.3

51.4

52.5

55.1

58.1

Personal Income

468.8

478.5

487.1

521.8

550.6

582.9

594.3

590.1

601.5

612.8

633.6

658.9

Wages & Salaries

Billions 2000 Dollars 234.3

238.6

245.0

257.8

271.5

283.5

285.1

275.9

275.9

280.0

287.8

296.5

Other Labor Income

46.6

50.1

53.2

56.7

61.1

62.0

61.4

60.1

62.8

65.7

68.9

71.6

Nonfarm

27.1

28.1

29.1

31.2

33.2

34.8

33.8

32.6

32.3

33.3

34.0

34.5

0.9

0.7

0.7

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Farm

120.4

117.8

113.8

126.0

136.3

154.0

161.9

162.6

157.4

154.8

163.4

175.7

Transfer Payments

Property Income

72.8

77.6

80.9

87.2

88.3

90.3

93.8

99.3

114.0

120.3

122.2

124.8

Social Insurance

34.8

35.9

37.0

39.2

41.5

43.4

43.4

42.2

42.7

43.0

44.4

46.0

1405.4

1302.6

1397.3

1442.7

1449.7

1416.7

1242.2

952.0

815.0

1021.5

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

1111.3 1190.68

Retail Sales (Billions $)

191.2

196.6

206.5

225.2

245.1

264.9

272.9

268.8

245.4

261.3

276.9

293.2

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

187.2

189.9

195.5

207.8

219.7

231.0

231.9

221.1

203.8

214.1

223.1

232.3

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

17

ion & Health mployment

nds)

March 2009

cha r t s

5 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

F l o r i d a F OR E C A ST

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Personal Income 12%

(% change year ago)

10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Florida Real Gross State Product 10%

(% change year ago)

8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

19

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate

Florida Construction Employment (Thousands)

700.0 650.0 600.0 550.0 500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0

20

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Manufacturing Employment 500.0

(Thousands)

450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment 1650.0

(Thousands)

1600.0 1550.0 1500.0 1450.0 1400.0 1350.0 1300.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

21

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Financial Activities Employment (Thousands)

600.0 550.0 500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Florida Professional & Business Services Employment (Thousands)

1400.0 1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0 700.0

22

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Education & Health Services Employment 1200.0

(Thousands)

1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0 700.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Florida Information Employment 190.0

(Thousands)

180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

23

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Federal Government Employment (Thousands)

135.0 130.0 125.0 120.0 115.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Florida State & Local Government Employment (Thousands)

1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0

24

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Housing Starts 300.0

(thousands)

250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Total Private Housing Starts 30 year Mortgage Rates

8.5% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5%

New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50%

(% change year ago)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

25

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Gross State Product (% change year ago)

15% 10% 5% 0% -5%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 FL Gross State Product

Florida Employment (Thousands)

8500.0 8000.0 7500.0 7000.0 6500.0 6000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Wage & Salary Employment

Florida Consumer Price Index (% change year ago)

6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

26

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 FL CPI

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

F l o r i d a Ne w s Summa r ie s Florida tops nation for delinquent mortgages • According to the Mortgage Bankers Association survey of over 85 percent of all residential mortgages in the U.S., Florida leads in the number of homes that are in foreclosure/delinquent with a percentage of 20.1. Nationally, the number is 11 percent.

• Of all the mortgages, subprime loans were the worst.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, March 5, 2009 Florida tourism declines for first time in seven years • In 2008, tourism declined 2.3 percent from 2007, with a total number of travelers at about 82.5 million.

• This is the first time in seven years that tourism has declined in the state. The drop is attributed to the declining economy.

• In-state travel did increase, however, by 22.9 percent in the same year.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, February 17, 2009

Study: Florida migration “perfectly balanced” • According to United Van Lines, Florida migration was perfectly balanced in the last 12 months.

• A total of 26,956 people migrated into and out of Florida. Of that, 50 percent was outbound at a total of 13,470, and 50 percent was inbound totaling 13,486.

• The only other state to share this migratory pattern was Minnesota.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, January 7, 2009 Crist touts stimulus plan for small businesses • Small businesses ranging from 10 to 99 employees that meet select requirements qualify for a plan that was proposed by Governor Crist a week earlier.

• The plan requires less than $10 million and would be used for such things as employee training and capital purchases.

• The governor’s office found that though small business made up less than 10 percent of existing companies, between 2005 and 2007, approximately 36 percent of new jobs were attributable to small businesses.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, January 6, 2009

Florida’s minimum wage to climb 6.2 percent • Florida’s minimum wage was planned to increase from $6.79 to $7.21 per hour on January 1, 2009, an increase of 6.2 percent. Another increase is expected in July 2009, when the federal minimum wage increases to $7.25 Florida farms grew from ’02 to ‘07 • In Florida, the minimum wage has increased by • The U.S. Department of Agriculture found that $2.06 since 2004. between 2002 and 2007 there has been an increase • An economist at the Employment Policies Institute, of 7.7 percent of farms in Florida, totaling in 2007 however, states that these continual increases will 47,463. lead to even more job losses because of the increase in • It was found that about 90 percent of Florida farms labor costs to firms. are family affiliated, while only 10 percent are Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, December 31, 2008 corporately affiliated.

• The market value of the products sold from Florida Reports chronicle looming healthcare crisis across farms in 2007 totaled $7.8 billion, the highest value Florida in Florida history.

• Before 2008 was even over, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Source: Pensacola News Journal, February 17, 2009 Statistics found that mass layoffs in 2008 had been the highest they have been in the healthcare industry Jobless benefits extended in 10 years.

• States across the U.S. with an unemployment rate • Florida was ranked as one of the top states in the above 6 percent have qualified for an extension in the nation to have increases in mass layoffs year after length of unemployment benefits as of November 21, year.

2008.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, January 2, 2009 • Florida, specifically, has increased unemployment benefits from 13 weeks to 20 weeks.

• This extension is applicable to those who filed for unemployment benefits after May 2, 2008.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, December 11, 2008 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

27

Metros

March 2009

F l o r i d a F OR E C A ST

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is comprised only of Volusia County. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway, which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500.

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach metropolitan statistical area is expected to show positive growth in all of the economic indicators measured in this forecast.

Personal income is expected to average 3.7 percent growth, while average annual wage will be one of the lowest levels in the state at 36.0. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.0 percent. The employment growth rate is expected to average 0.5 percent each year.

The Deltona MSA will experience the most growth in the professional and business services sector, followed by education and health services, with growth rates of 3.1 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively. Unemployment will be one of the worst in the state, averaging 10.5 percent annually.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 500,413 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 249,691 in January 2008 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 4.9% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 12,252 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Volusia County Schools – 6,816 employees • Halifax Medical Center – 3,136 employees • Volusia County – 2,600 employees • City of Daytona Beach – 1,159 employees • Memorial Hospital – 1,000 employees • Embry Riddle Aeronautical University – 900 employees • Memorial Hospital West Volusia – 853 employees • Sherwood Medical – 850 employees • The Daytona Beach News-Journal – 829 employees • Daytona Beach Community College – 743 employees Source: Southeast Volusia Chamber of Commerce

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Port Orange developers get break on wetland credits • Wetland mitigation credits are sold to developers if projects are going to destroy wetlands as a method to reduce wetland destruction or to finance the development of new wetlands elsewhere.

• A new city policy would provide two one-year extensions on the credits with a 10 percent payment for each extension. This will allow ready projects to move forward and not get held back.

• Centerline Homes has modified its plan to reduce the impact on wetlands, reducing the amount of credits it will need to purchase, and winning the company an extension.

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, January 11, 2009

Bunnell begs FDOT to forgive loan • Florida Department of Transportation gave Bunnell a $529,000 loan in 2005, a loan that the city officials say they cannot afford to repay.

• Officials say that the unforeseen Amendment 1’s impact on revenue, as well as the economic downturn, has made it impossible to repay the loan used for utility line relocation.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

29

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

• Loan forgiveness is not common in the state and has only occurred twice. A direct appeal to legislators is necessary.

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, January 12, 2009

Volusia schools audit raises concern over reserve funds • The Volusia County School Board underwent an independent audit and found only one major concern over an unreserved balance of $3.6 million, which is approximately 2.8 percent of the general expenditures.

• According to the auditing accountant, local governments should not be below 10 percent.

The school board has been using its reserves and exhausted them in the summer of 2008 to balance the budget.

• Much of this problem is due to the district budget cuts of $45 million due to low tax collections and declining enrollment. Between $37 and $44 million is expected to be cut next year.

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, January 28, 2009

Daytona International traffic falls 40% • Daytona Beach International Airport announced that its January passenger traffic is down 40 percent from the same time last year.

• In January 2008, traffic numbers reached 46,777; however, January 2009’s numbers are only 28,102.

• The airport traffic for the entire year ending January 31, 2009 was 17 percent lower than the preceding 12-month period.

• The decline is attributed to the loss of AirTran Airways and Continental Airlines last year and the national recession.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, February 23, 2009

30

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

$157,500 donated to Embry-Riddle • Former President of Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Dr. Steve Sliwa and his wife Nancy, made a donation to the university of $157,500.

• The money will go towards the school’s baseball program at the Daytona Beach campus.

• $70,000 of the money will be used to build locker rooms in Silwa Stadium, named after the former President’s family. Another $70,000 will be added to the Kenneth J. and Shirley Sliwa Memorial Endowment.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, March 3, 2009

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

1.2

1.4

1.6

15000.0 14000.0 13000.0 12000.0 11000.0 10000.0 9000.0 8000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Real Gross Metro Product

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

170.0

4.0%

160.0

2.0%

150.0

0.0%

140.0 130.0

1

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product

Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment 180.0

0.8

-2.0% 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Deltona Payroll Employment

-4.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

31

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

March 2009 Forecast

2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

16 1.6 5.8 10.2 13.2 1.3 31.6 26.2 34.7 2.8

16.2 1.3 5.8 10.4 13.5 2.5 32.2 26.8 35 3.4

16.3 1.7 5.8 10.4 13.5 4 32.2 26.8 35.2 3.1

16.3 2.4 5.8 10.5 13.6 3 32.3 26.8 35.4 2.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

166.4 -3.1 9.3 -8 157.1 -2.8 10.8 -15.8 32 -3.5 5.5 24.7 2.2 2.8 -7.2 7.7 -5.1 18.2 -3.5 31.1 1.8 22.1 -1.1 8 -2.8 1.3 -2.4 23.1 -0.5

165.2 -3.2 9 -9.3 156.2 -2.8 10.4 -16.1 31.8 -3.6 5.5 24.5 2.1 2.8 -3.8 7.5 -4.2 17.8 -3.8 31.4 2.4 22.1 -2.3 8 -3.3 1.3 -6.4 23.1 -0.4

164.2 -3 8.6 -11.9 155.6 -2.4 9.9 -16.6 32.1 -1.3 5.5 25 2.1 2.7 -6.8 7.5 -3.1 17.2 -6.4 31.6 1.7 22.1 -0.7 8.1 -0.8 1.3 -1.1 23 -0.6

16.6 2.4 5.9 10.7 13.6 1.1 32.8 26.9 35.7 1.9

16.8 3.3 6 10.8 13.7 1.6 33.1 27 35.8 1.8

17 3.8 6 10.9 13.8 1.9 33.3 27.1 36 1.7

17.2 4.4 6.1 11.1 13.9 2.4 33.7 27.3 36.2 1.7

17.4 4.4 6.2 11.2 14 2.6 34 27.5 36.3 1.6

17.6 4.5 6.2 11.4 14.1 2.8 34.4 27.6 36.3 1.4

17.8 4.6 6.3 11.5 14.2 3 34.7 27.8 36.4 1.3

17.9 4.6 6.3 11.6 14.3 3 35 27.9 36.6 1.1

18.2 5.1 6.4 11.9 14.5 3.4 35.5 28.2 36.7 1.2

164.8 -1 8.5 -8.4 156.3 -0.5 9.8 -8.6 32.3 1 5.5 25.3 2.1 2.7 -3.6 7.5 -1.9 17.2 -5.4 31.8 2.1 22.2 0.2 8.1 0.3 1.4 8.3 23.3 0.9

165.6 0.2 8.5 -6.2 157.1 0.6 9.7 -7 32.5 2.3 5.6 25.7 2.1 2.7 -2.2 7.6 0.4 17.5 -2 32.1 2.2 22.2 0.4 8.1 1.4 1.4 6.6 23.4 1.3

166.1 0.9 8.6 -2.5 157.5 1.1 9.6 -3.8 32.6 2.3 5.6 25.8 2.1 2.7 0.2 7.6 2 17.7 -0.1 32.4 2.8 22.1 0.3 8.1 0.4 1.3 3.8 23.3 1.1

166.8 1.6 8.7 0.2 158.2 1.6 9.7 -1.4 32.7 1.8 5.6 25.8 2.2 2.8 2.7 7.6 2.2 18.1 4.9 32.7 3.2 21.9 -0.8 8.1 -0.4 1.3 1.7 23.2 0.9

167.7 1.7 8.7 2 159 1.7 9.9 0.3 32.7 1.2 5.7 25.7 2.2 2.8 4.4 7.7 2.2 18.7 8.5 32.8 3.1 21.8 -1.5 8 -0.3 1.3 -5.8 23.2 -0.1

168.7 1.9 8.8 3.3 159.9 1.8 10.1 4 32.7 0.4 5.7 25.4 2.2 2.9 5.6 7.7 1.9 19.2 10.2 33 2.8 21.9 -1.5 8 -0.4 1.3 -4.6 23.1 -1

169.9 2.3 8.8 2.6 161.1 2.3 10.3 6.7 32.7 0.1 5.8 25.3 2.3 2.9 4.8 7.8 2.1 19.8 12.3 33.2 2.6 22.1 -0.3 8 -1.1 1.3 -3.1 23.1 -0.9

170.9 2.5 8.9 2.7 162 2.4 10.5 8 32.8 0.2 5.9 25.3 2.3 2.9 3.8 7.8 2.3 20.2 11.8 33.4 2.3 22.3 1.4 8 -1 1.3 -2 22.9 -1.5

171.7 2.4 9 2.9 162.8 2.4 10.8 9.5 32.9 0.5 5.9 25.4 2.3 2.9 2.9 7.8 2.3 20.4 9.4 33.4 1.8 22.4 2.7 8 -1.1 1.3 -1.4 22.9 -1.6

172.9 2.5 9 3 163.9 2.5 11.1 10.3 33.2 1.5 6 25.6 2.4 2.9 1.8 7.9 2.4 20.6 7.1 33.5 1.4 22.6 3.3 7.9 -1.6 1.3 -1.3 23 -0.7

13068.1 12959.4 12951.5 13008.5 13153.5 13302.2 13421.2 13557.2 504.5 504.6 505 505.6 506.4 507.2 507.9 508.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 257 257.5 258 258.5 259 259.5 260.1 260.6 2.2 1.9 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 10.1 10.5 11.1 11.4 11.5 11.4 11.4 11.3 916 876 1147 1630 2303 3417 4324 5106 382 378 678 1148 1800 2701 3568 4356 534 498 469 482 503 715 757 750

*Quarterly at an annual rate

32

164.6 -3.3 8.8 -11.3 155.8 -2.8 10 -18.4 31.9 -2.8 5.5 24.7 2.1 2.7 -5.1 7.4 -3.6 17.7 -3.5 31.5 1.3 22 -1.7 8.1 -1.8 1.3 -2.7 23.1 -0.3

16.4 3 5.9 10.6 13.6 2.5 32.5 26.8 35.5 2.4

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

13685 13827.3 13985.1 14122.2 14230.5 14385.6 509.3 510.1 510.9 511.8 512.9 514 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 261.1 261.7 262.3 262.9 263.7 264.5 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1 1.1 10.9 10.6 10.3 10 9.8 9.6 5796 6342 6816 7291 7624 8027 5025 5552 5943 6323 6553 6902 771 790 873 968 1071 1125

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

March 2009 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

11.4 3.7 4.3 7.1 11 2.3 24.7 23.9 27.7 4

11.8 4 4.6 7.2 11.2 2 25.3 23.9 28.8 3.8

13 9.7 5 8 12 6.9 27.2 25.1 30 4.2

13.7 5.7 5.3 8.4 12.3 2.7 28.2 25.2 30.9 3

14.8 8.2 5.7 9.1 12.9 5.3 29.9 26.1 32.5 5.2

15.5 4.3 5.8 9.6 13.1 1.6 31 26.3 33.7 3.7

15.9 3 5.8 10.1 13.1 -0.3 31.7 26 34 1

16.2 1.8 5.8 10.4 13.5 2.7 32.1 26.6 35.1 3

16.7 3.2 6 10.7 13.7 1.8 32.9 27 35.8 1.9

17.5 4.5 6.2 11.3 14.1 2.7 34.2 27.5 36.3 1.5

18.4 5.3 6.4 12 14.6 3.6 35.7 28.3 36.8 1.4

174.2 1.7 10.6 3.9 163.6 1.6 14.9 7.8 33.1 0 5 25.9 2.3 2.9 6.8 7.9 7.1 20.4 -0.9 30.5 0.1 21.6 -0.5 8.3 1.2 1.4 -0.6 22.8 4.4

172.6 -0.9 10.3 -2.7 162.3 -0.8 13.5 -9.4 33.4 1 5.4 25.8 2.3 3 3.5 8 1.7 19.3 -5.2 30 -1.8 22.2 3.2 8.2 -0.6 1.4 -0.6 23.2 1.9

170.5 -1.2 10 -3.5 160.5 -1.1 12.3 -8.5 32.9 -1.6 5.5 25.1 2.3 2.9 -1.9 7.8 -1.8 18.5 -4.1 30.9 3 22.4 0.8 8.2 0 1.3 -4.7 23.2 -0.2

165.1 -3.2 9 -10.1 156.2 -2.7 10.3 -16.7 32 -2.8 5.5 24.7 2.1 2.8 -5.7 7.5 -4 17.7 -4.3 31.4 1.8 22.1 -1.5 8 -2.2 1.3 -3.2 23.1 -0.5

165.8 0.4 8.6 -4.3 157.3 0.7 9.7 -5.3 32.6 1.8 5.6 25.6 2.1 2.7 -0.7 7.6 0.7 17.6 -0.7 32.2 2.6 22.1 0.1 8.1 0.4 1.4 5.1 23.3 1

169.3 2.1 8.8 2.6 160.5 2.1 10.2 4.7 32.7 0.5 5.8 25.4 2.2 2.9 4.7 7.7 2.1 19.5 10.7 33.1 2.7 22 -0.4 8 -0.7 1.3 -3.9 23.1 -0.9

173.5 2.5 9 2.9 164.5 2.5 11.2 9.8 33.3 1.8 6 25.7 2.4 2.9 2.1 7.9 2.3 20.8 6.5 33.5 1.2 22.7 3 7.9 -1.5 1.3 -1.2 23 -0.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

153.2 1.9 9.6 -7.3 143.6 2.6 9.6 9.3 30.8 -0.6 4.7 23.6 2.6 3 -10.4 6.4 -2.3 16.4 3.8 28.2 7.7 19.6 0.8 7.6 6.8 1.4 2.5 20.6 0.9

158 3.1 9.4 -1.5 148.5 3.5 10.5 8.7 31.4 1.6 4.6 24.3 2.5 2.8 -6.3 6.5 1.2 17.4 6.3 30.1 6.7 20 2.2 7.8 2.9 1.4 2.5 20.7 0.5

164.8 4.3 9.8 3.9 155 4.4 11.9 14 31.9 1.8 4.7 25 2.2 2.8 -2 6.9 7.2 19.1 9.8 30.7 1.9 21.1 5.3 8.2 4 1.4 0 21.1 2.1

171.3 3.9 10.2 4.4 161.1 3.9 13.8 15.7 33.1 3.8 4.8 26 2.3 2.7 -2.7 7.3 5.5 20.6 7.7 30.5 -0.7 21.7 2.9 8.2 0.1 1.4 1.2 21.8 3.6

10616.7 11246.1 11935.4 12868.8 13288.1 13193.9 13209.1 12996.9 13358.5 13904.9 14462.1 459.1 467.1 477.3 486.6 495 499.3 502.8 504.9 507.6 510.5 514.7 1.6 1.8 2.2 2 1.7 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 220.9 226.8 233.4 239.3 245.2 249.4 254.4 257.7 259.8 262 265 2.9 2.7 2.9 2.5 2.5 1.7 2 1.3 0.8 0.9 1.1 5.5 5.2 4.5 3.7 3.4 4.2 6.5 10.8 11.4 10.4 9.5 4785 6171 6179 6363 4126 2195 1371 1142 3787 6561 8127 4136 4990 4779 5121 3100 1583 1024 646 3106 5711 6950 649 1181 1401 1242 1026 612 348 496 681 850 1177

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

33

G ai n e s v i l l e

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist counties and is located in the north-central portion of the state. This metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history museum.

The Gainesville MSA is expected to maintain the same level of employment throughout the forecast horizon.

Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.1 percent, and personal income is expected to grow 2.9 percent annually. The growth in housing starts will be the lowest in the state, averaging 40 percent annually. Gross metro product will be one of the lowest in the state as well, at a level of 9562.2.

The fastest growing sector in the area will be professional and business services, followed by education and health services, with average annual growth rates of 2.6 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively. Unemployment is expected to be one of the lowest in the state, averaging 6.3 percent.

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 257,099 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Alachua County population estimate of 240,082 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Gilchrist County population estimate of 17,017 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 135,702 in January 2008 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3.1% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted for the metro.

This amounts to 4,162 unemployed people.

(Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • University of Florida – 35,000 employees • Shands Hospital – 8,225 employees • North Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,560 employees • Nationwide Insurance – 1,058 employees Sources: University of Florida and Gainesville Council for Economic Outreach

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Faster permits for affordable housing OK’d • The Alachua County Commission approved several incentives for affordable housing construction, including expedited permitting in an effort to reduce new home costs. The current 10-day requirement for affordable housing permitting from the date of application was replaced by a shorter, six-day requirement.

• The commission also approved a cost analysis on the new regulations. The land development analysis will reveal the impact of the new regulations on affordable housing costs and the financial benefits to the homeowner and the community in the long term.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, February 18, 2009

First “green” county fire station unveiled • As part of a larger plan to build sustainable county buildings, Alachua County unveiled its first “green” fire station, Fire Rescue Station 10.

• The fire station features waterless urinals among other water-conserving features, which will save 7,500 gallons of water each year alone. The station will save 20 percent on energy costs annually by using an energy-efficient heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning unit.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, January 28, 2009 34

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

G ai n e s v i l l e

City may expand eastside district • City commissioners preliminarily approved the expansion of a special district in east Gainesville to help foster future development in the area by making future property taxes available for area developments and redevelopment projects.

• Florida Organic Growers installs vegetable gardens at schools, homes, and businesses, and participants, with assistance, maintain their plots, effectively growing their own organic food.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, December 22, 2008

• The Community Redevelopment Agency (CRA) will oversee the fund that will provide incentives and funds for the development projects.

• The city of Gainesville has authorized a blight study which will determine if the area meets the requirements to establish a special district.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, January 16, 2009

UF is ready to reduce budget by $75 million • University of Florida President Bernie Machen told the Faculty Senate to prepare for a $72- to $75million reduction in the budget for the fiscal year beginning July 1, nearly a 10 percent reduction of the total budget. The prediction is largely the result of expected 10 percent cuts statewide.

• To help make up for the shortfall, Machen said the university plans to increase tuition 15 percent, the maximum increase Governor Charlie Crist approved in November.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, January 16, 2009

GIFT Gardens helps people get healthy, selfefficient • A new program from Florida Organic Growers, a Gainesville non-profit that aims to promote sustainable and organic agriculture, provides low-income residents and the institutions with the opportunity to grow and eat fresh fruits and vegetables.

• The program, called the Gainesville Initiative for Tasty Gardens (GIFT Gardens), is an effort to provide low-income individuals healthy foods that are often forgone for less-expensive alternatives.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

35

G ai n e s v i l l e Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.5

Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate 12.0% 10.0%

(percent)

3

11000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

8000.0 7000.0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

130.0 125.0 120.0 115.0

36

2.5

9000.0

135.0

110.0

2

Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product

6000.0

Gainesville Payroll Employment 140.0

1.5

10000.0

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

1

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Gainesville Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Real Gross Metro Product

Gainesville Real Personal Income 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Real Personal Income

G ai n e s v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL

March 2009 Forecast

2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

8.5 0.9 5 3.5 7.1 0.7 32.8 27.2 37.9 2.8

8.7 0.8 5 3.6 7.2 1.9 33.2 27.6 38.3 3.5

8.7 0.7 5.1 3.6 7.2 3 33.2 27.6 38.5 3.1

8.7 1.7 5.1 3.6 7.2 2.3 33.3 27.6 38.7 2.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

8.8 2.5 5.1 3.7 7.2 2 33.5 27.7 38.8 2.5

8.8 2.1 5.1 3.7 7.3 0.8 33.8 27.8 39 2

8.9 2.9 5.2 3.7 7.3 1.2 34.1 27.8 39.2 1.8

9 3.3 5.2 3.8 7.3 1.4 34.3 27.9 39.3 1.8

9.1 3.7 5.2 3.8 7.4 1.8 34.6 28.1 39.6 1.8

9.2 3.7 5.3 3.9 7.4 1.9 34.9 28.2 39.7 1.7

9.2 3.7 5.3 3.9 7.4 2 35.2 28.3 39.8 1.5

9.3 3.7 5.3 4 7.5 2.1 35.4 28.3 39.9 1.4

9.4 3.5 5.4 4 7.5 1.9 35.6 28.4 40 1.2

9.5 4 5.4 4.1 7.6 2.3 36 28.6 40.2 1.3

132.2 -2.7 4.3 -8.1 127.9 -2.5 5.3 -16.1 19.4 -3.6 2.7 15 1.8 2 1.6 6.1 -4.9 11.2 -5.5 22.1 1.5 15 2.4 4.7 -5.3 4.1 -1.1 37.9 -2.4

131.4 -3.2 4.2 -7.6 127.2 -3.1 5.1 -15.9 19.2 -4.5 2.7 14.9 1.8 2 -1.6 6 -5.3 10.9 -5.7 22.3 2.2 15.1 -0.7 4.6 -4.7 4.1 -1.9 37.8 -3.1

130.9 -3.6 4.1 -11.2 126.8 -3.4 4.9 -16.3 19.3 -4.5 2.7 15 1.7 2 -4.8 5.9 -5.1 10.8 -6.2 22.3 1.9 15 -1.6 4.7 -2.2 4.1 -2.6 37.8 -3.5

130.6 -2.6 4 -11.9 126.6 -2.2 4.8 -16.6 19.4 -2 2.7 15.2 1.7 1.9 -7.3 5.9 -3.1 10.6 -6.6 22.4 1.3 15.1 -0.1 4.7 -2 4.1 -1 37.6 -1.6

130.9 -1 4 -8.3 127 -0.7 4.8 -9.5 19.5 0.4 2.8 15.3 1.7 1.9 -4.8 5.9 -2 10.5 -5.6 22.5 1.7 15.2 0.9 4.7 -0.7 4.2 0.6 37.8 -0.4

131.3 0 3.9 -6.2 127.4 0.2 4.7 -7.8 19.6 1.7 2.8 15.5 1.8 1.9 -3.7 6 0.2 10.7 -2.1 22.7 1.9 15.2 1.1 4.7 1 4.1 -0.2 37.8 -0.1

131.6 0.5 4 -2.3 127.6 0.6 4.7 -4.8 19.6 1.7 2.8 15.5 1.8 1.9 -1.6 6 1.6 10.8 -0.2 22.9 2.4 15.2 0.7 4.7 0.4 4.1 -0.5 37.7 -0.1

131.7 0.8 4 0.4 127.7 0.8 4.7 -2.5 19.6 1.2 2.8 15.5 1.8 2 1.1 6 1.9 11.1 4.8 23 2.7 15 -0.8 4.7 -0.4 4.1 -0.8 37.5 -0.3

132.1 0.9 4.1 2.3 128 0.8 4.8 -0.8 19.6 0.7 2.8 15.4 1.8 2 3.2 6 1.8 11.4 8.4 23 2.4 14.9 -1.8 4.7 -0.1 4.1 -1.7 37.5 -0.7

132.5 0.9 4.1 3.6 128.4 0.8 4.8 2.6 19.5 -0.1 2.8 15.3 1.8 2 4.8 6.1 1.6 11.8 10.2 23.2 2.1 14.9 -1.8 4.7 -0.2 4.1 -1.1 37.3 -1.3

133.2 1.2 4.1 2.7 129.1 1.2 4.9 5.1 19.5 -0.5 2.9 15.2 1.8 2 4.6 6.1 1.9 12.1 12.3 23.3 2 15.1 -0.4 4.7 -1 4.1 -0.9 37.2 -1.3

133.5 1.4 4.1 2.7 129.4 1.3 5 6.6 19.5 -0.4 2.9 15.2 1.9 2 3.7 6.1 2.1 12.4 11.8 23.4 1.7 15.3 1.6 4.7 -1 4.1 -1.1 36.9 -1.6

133.9 1.4 4.2 2.9 129.7 1.3 5.1 8 19.6 0 2.9 15.2 1.9 2 2.7 6.2 2 12.5 9.3 23.3 1.3 15.4 3.2 4.6 -1.1 4 -1.2 36.9 -1.6

134.6 1.6 4.2 3 130.4 1.5 5.2 8.6 19.7 1 2.9 15.3 1.9 2 1.7 6.2 2.1 12.6 7 23.4 0.9 15.5 3.8 4.6 -1.8 4 -1.1 37 -0.8

9226 260.2 0.8 137.3 0.3 6 613 151 462

9146.9 260.5 0.7 137.1 -0.3 6.3 551 146 404

9137 260.7 0.6 136.9 -1.8 6.7 586 217 369

9168.2 260.9 0.4 136.8 -0.9 6.9 744 352 392

9247.2 261.2 0.4 136.8 -0.4 6.9 961 558 403

9339 261.4 0.3 136.9 -0.1 6.9 1419 827 592

9411.7 261.7 0.4 137 0.1 6.9 1633 1067 566

9491 261.9 0.4 137.2 0.3 6.8 1772 1273 499

9564.1 262.2 0.4 137.4 0.5 6.5 1973 1450 522

9646.7 262.6 0.4 137.7 0.6 6.3 2069 1581 487

9741.5 263 0.5 137.9 0.7 6.2 2173 1665 508

9820.7 263.4 0.6 138.2 0.7 6 2295 1750 545

9879.1 263.9 0.6 138.5 0.8 5.8 2392 1802 590

9969.5 264.4 0.7 138.9 0.9 5.7 2492 1897 594

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

37

G ai n e s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

March 2009 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

5.8 1.8 3.6 2.2 5.6 0.4 24.4 23.6 28.6 3.4

6 2.9 3.7 2.3 5.7 0.9 24.9 23.5 29 1.5

6.8 13.4 4.2 2.6 6.3 10.5 27.9 25.7 32.5 11.9

7.3 7.7 4.4 2.9 6.6 4.7 29.5 26.5 34 4.7

7.9 7.8 4.7 3.2 6.9 4.9 31.2 27.2 35.8 5.1

8.3 4.9 5 3.3 7.1 2.3 32.3 27.5 36.8 2.9

8.5 3.1 5.1 3.5 7 -0.2 33 27.2 37.2 0.9

8.6 1 5.1 3.6 7.2 2 33.2 27.5 38.3 3.1

8.9 2.7 5.2 3.7 7.3 1.3 33.9 27.8 39.1 2

9.2 3.7 5.3 3.9 7.4 1.9 35 28.2 39.7 1.6

9.6 4.3 5.5 4.1 7.6 2.6 36.3 28.7 40.3 1.5

132.8 1.1 4.1 2.8 128.7 1 4.9 3.4 19.5 -0.1 2.8 15.3 1.8 2 4.1 6.1 1.9 11.9 10.7 23.2 2 15.1 -0.6 4.7 -0.6 4.1 -1.2 37.2 -1.2

134.9 1.6 4.2 2.9 130.7 1.5 5.3 8.2 19.8 1.3 2.9 15.4 1.9 2 1.8 6.2 2.1 12.7 6.4 23.4 0.8 15.6 3.5 4.6 -1.6 4 -1 37.1 -0.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

38

124.7 -0.1 4.5 -0.9 120.2 -0.1 5.1 5.6 17.2 -1.2 2.3 13.3 1.5 2 -6.5 6.6 -0.1 9.9 -10.4 20.4 2.4 12.1 -1.3 4.3 10.4 3.2 2.1 39.4 1

126.1 1.1 4.2 -5.9 121.8 1.4 5.2 1.5 17.3 1.1 2.5 13.2 1.7 2 -1.3 6.2 -6.4 10.4 4.3 20.8 2.3 12 -0.5 4.5 5.4 3.3 3.6 40 1.6

128.3 1.8 4.2 -2 124.2 1.9 5.8 11.7 17.4 0.4 2.6 13.2 1.6 2.1 6.2 6.2 -0.7 11.3 8.8 21.5 2.9 12.9 7.5 4.7 3.3 3.4 3.8 38.9 -2.8

129.9 1.2 4.2 -0.2 125.7 1.3 6.2 6.4 18.1 3.7 2.7 13.8 1.6 2 -5.8 6.2 1 11.9 5.6 21.9 2.1 13.7 5.9 4.5 -3 3.7 5.9 37.6 -3.3

132 1.6 4.7 13.6 127.3 1.2 6.5 5.2 18.7 3.4 2.7 14.1 1.8 2 -2.9 6.5 4 12.1 1.2 21.9 0.1 13.4 -2.1 4.7 2.5 3.7 2 37.9 0.8

134.1 1.6 4.9 3.7 129.2 1.5 6.6 1.7 19.7 5.6 2.8 15.2 1.8 2 3 6.4 -0.5 11.8 -2.1 21.7 -0.9 13.8 3 4.8 3.6 3.9 3.8 38.3 1.2

135.4 1 4.6 -5.9 130.8 1.2 6 -8.8 20 1.6 2.8 15.4 1.9 2 0.8 6.2 -3.1 11.6 -2 21.9 0.8 15.1 9 4.9 0.9 4.2 8.8 38.8 1.2

131.3 -3 4.2 -9.7 127.1 -2.8 5 -16.2 19.3 -3.6 2.7 15 1.8 2 -3.1 5.9 -4.6 10.9 -6 22.3 1.7 15.1 0 4.7 -3.6 4.1 -1.7 37.8 -2.6

131.4 0.1 4 -4.2 127.4 0.2 4.7 -6.2 19.6 1.3 2.8 15.5 1.8 1.9 -2.3 6 0.4 10.8 -0.8 22.8 2.2 15.1 0.5 4.7 0.1 4.1 -0.2 37.7 -0.2

7838.1 239 1.2 125 0.4 4 1942 1130 812

8189.8 241.4 1 126 0.8 3.7 1706 1261 446

8526 244.3 1.2 126.9 0.7 3.4 1838 1378 461

8890.1 248.4 1.7 127 0.1 3 2224 1454 770

9140.1 253.3 2 129.9 2.3 2.8 1885 1156 729

9259.1 256.6 1.3 134.2 3.3 3 1365 762 603

9386.5 259 0.9 137.9 2.7 4.2 1030 491 539

9169.5 260.6 0.6 137 -0.7 6.5 623 217 407

9372.2 261.5 0.4 137 0 6.9 1446 931 515

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

9693.2 10013.8 262.8 264.7 0.5 0.7 137.8 139.1 0.6 1 6.2 5.6 2127 2557 1612 1910 516 647

J ack s o n v i l l e

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport.

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 1,300,823 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Baker County population estimate of 25,745 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Clay County population estimate of 182,023 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Duval County population estimate of 849,159 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Nassau County population estimate of 68,450 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • St. Johns County population estimate of 175,446 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 664,425 in January 2008 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 4.4% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted for the metro.

This amounts to 29,022 unemployed people.

(Florida Research and Economic Database)

The Jacksonville area is expected to see moderate growth in a variety of economic indicators. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.4 percent, the highest in the state. The per capita income level will be one of the highest in the state, averaging a level of 33.5. Average annual wage is also expected to be among the highest in the state, at a level of 46.9. Employment growth is expected to grow 0.6 percent annually. Housing starts are expected to be one of the lowest in the state, growing 40.1 percent each year.

The fastest growing sector in the Jacksonville MSA will be professional and business services, averaging 4.2 percent annually. Following that sector is education and health services, with an annual growth rate of 2.3 percent.

Unemployment is expected to average 9.3 percent annually.

Top Area Employers: • Naval Air Station Jacksonville – 25,245 employees • Duval County Public Schools – 16,003 employees • Naval Station Mayport – 15,293 employees • City of Jacksonville Municipal Government – 8,828 employees • Blue Cross – 8,200 employees • Baptist Health – 7,000 employees • Winn-Dixie Stores, Inc. – 6,200 employees • Mayo Clinic – 5,000 employees • CSX – 4,400 employees • Citibank – 4,200 employees Source: The Cornerstone Regional Development Partnership

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, March 5, 2009

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Jacksonville could get $38M from stimulus package • A spokeswoman for Mayor John Peyton said the federal stimulus package will have a minimum of a $38 million impact on the City of Jacksonville.

• The Florida Department of Transportation expects about $20 million in funding for Jacksonville projects. The City of Jacksonville expects roughly $12 million in energy efficiency project funding.

Another $4 million is expected to come from the state Department of Justice, and $2 million from community development block grants.

4Q earnings fall 70 percent for FPIC • Jacksonville-based FPIC Insurance Group reported 4th-quarter 2008 earnings of only $4.5 million, down 70 percent from 4th-quarter earnings of $15.1 million a year ago.

• The medical liability insurance provider reported investment losses as a result of the financial market’s recent downturn as the primary factor in the company’s financial downturn.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, March 5, 2009

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

39

J ack s o n v i l l e

FCCJ is now Florida State College at Jacksonville • Florida Community College at Jacksonville is now officially Florida State College at Jacksonville (FSCJ). Five other community colleges in Florida have become state schools as a result of legislation passed last year making this transition possible.

• FSCJ already offers four four-year degrees— in management, critical care nursing, fire sciences management, and networks and telecommunications—but plans to expand its four-year programs to include early childhood education, information technology management, and public safety management, among others.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, March 3, 2009

Wal-Mart to hire 400 for new Jacksonville store • Wal-Mart Stores Inc. is planning to hire 400 Jacksonville area workers for its new super center.

The company is looking to fill both full- and parttime positions in all areas including management.

• The company began accepting applications March 2, and those hired will start work in April.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, February 25, 2009

40

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

Jaxport, Hanjin complete terminal deal • Hanjin Shipping Co. completed a deal with the Jacksonville Port Authority to lease 90 acres for 30 years. The South Korean company plans to construct a $300-million container terminal at Dames Point that is expected to take about two years to build after the permitting process is completed.

• The terminal is expected to have an annual impact of nearly $1 billion and create more than 5,600 jobs.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, December 10, 2008

J ack s o n v i l l e

Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

10.0%

0.6

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product 60000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

55000.0

40000.0

4.0%

35000.0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate

30000.0

Jacksonville Payroll Employment (Thousands)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Real Gross Metro Product

Jacksonville Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

8.0%

600.0

6.0% 4.0%

550.0

2.0% 0.0%

500.0 450.0

1

45000.0

6.0%

650.0

0.8

50000.0

8.0%

2.0%

0.4

-2.0% 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Jacksonville Payroll Employment

-4.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

41

J ack s o n v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

March 2009 Forecast

2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

52 1.1 28.4 23.6 43.2 0.9 39.2 32.5 44.8 3.1

52.6 0.7 28.4 24.2 43.8 1.8 39.6 32.9 45.3 3.7

52.7 0.9 28.5 24.2 43.8 3.1 39.5 32.8 45.6 3.4

52.9 1.5 28.6 24.3 43.9 2.2 39.6 32.8 45.9 3.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

609 -3.6 29.4 -6.9 579.6 -3.4 42.1 -9.7 134.3 -3.3 30.6 72.8 31.5 9.3 -7.6 58.2 -3.2 86.8 -7.3 79.4 0.1 64.1 -1.9 28.6 -1 17.8 1.1 58.9 -0.8

602.4 -4.4 28.5 -9 574 -4.2 40.6 -10.8 133.3 -3.9 30.4 72.4 31.1 9.2 -8.7 57.1 -4.9 84.4 -8.2 80.1 0.1 64.1 -3 28.3 -2.3 17.8 0.7 59 -1.4

597.1 -3.7 27.1 -11.7 570 -3.3 38.2 -14.1 133.9 -1.8 30.6 73.7 30.3 8.9 -7.5 56.3 -5.1 82.1 -8.7 80.8 1.6 64.3 -0.3 28.8 -0.4 17.8 0.5 58.9 -0.6

53.8 2.3 29 24.8 44.2 1 40.1 32.9 46.4 2.4

54.4 3.3 29.3 25.1 44.5 1.6 40.4 33 46.6 2.2

55 4 29.7 25.3 44.8 2 40.7 33.2 46.9 2.2

55.7 4.5 30.1 25.6 45.1 2.6 41.2 33.4 47.2 2.3

56.4 4.7 30.4 26 45.5 2.9 41.6 33.6 47.4 2.1

57.1 4.9 30.8 26.3 45.9 3.2 42 33.8 47.5 1.9

57.8 5.1 31.2 26.6 46.3 3.4 42.4 34 47.7 1.8

58.5 5.1 31.6 27 46.7 3.5 42.8 34.2 47.9 1.6

59.4 5.4 32 27.5 47.2 3.7 43.3 34.4 48.2 1.7

598.9 -1.7 26.8 -8.9 572.1 -1.3 37.8 -10.3 134.4 0.1 30.7 74.4 30.3 8.8 -5.9 56.5 -3 82.6 -4.8 81.1 2.2 64.5 0.6 28.7 0.5 18.1 1.6 59.6 1.1

600.7 -0.3 26.6 -6.7 574.2 0 37 -8.9 135 1.2 30.9 75.1 30.4 8.8 -4.6 56.7 -0.7 84.5 0.1 82 2.3 64.6 0.8 28.7 1.3 17 -4.5 59.9 1.5

603.6 0.8 26.9 -3 576.8 0.9 36.7 -5.8 135.2 1.4 30.9 75.2 30.4 8.8 -2.3 56.9 1 85.9 2.4 82.8 3 64.4 0.6 28.7 0.3 17.6 -1.1 59.8 1.1

607.4 1.7 27 -0.3 580.3 1.8 36.9 -3.5 135.5 1.2 31 75.2 30.4 8.9 0.2 57.1 1.4 88.6 7.9 83.6 3.5 63.9 -0.6 28.7 -0.5 17.7 -0.6 59.4 0.9

611.9 2.2 27.2 1.5 584.7 2.2 37.1 -1.8 135.8 1.1 31.3 75 30.8 9 2 57.3 1.5 92.2 11.6 84.1 3.7 63.5 -1.5 28.6 -0.5 17.6 -2.7 59.5 -0.2

617.1 2.7 27.3 2.8 589.8 2.7 37.6 1.6 136 0.8 31.5 74.4 31.2 9.1 3.5 57.6 1.6 95.8 13.3 84.9 3.5 63.6 -1.6 28.5 -0.6 17.6 3.6 59.1 -1.3

623.3 3.3 27.4 2.2 595.8 3.3 38.2 4.1 136.4 0.9 31.9 73.9 31.7 9.1 3 58 2 99.4 15.7 85.6 3.4 64.1 -0.4 28.4 -1.3 17.6 0 59 -1.2

628.4 3.5 27.7 2.3 600.8 3.5 38.9 5.4 137.2 1.3 32.3 74 32.3 9.1 2.3 58.4 2.3 102 15.1 86.3 3.2 64.8 1.3 28.3 -1.3 17.6 -0.9 58.3 -1.9

633.3 3.5 27.8 2.4 605.5 3.5 39.6 6.8 138.1 1.7 32.6 74.3 32.7 9.1 1.5 58.8 2.6 103.9 12.7 86.7 3.1 65.4 3 28.2 -1.3 17.5 -0.7 58.2 -2.1

638.4 3.5 28 2.5 610.4 3.5 40.4 7.5 139.3 2.4 32.8 74.9 33.1 9.1 0.5 59.2 2.7 105.5 10.1 87 2.5 65.9 3.7 28 -1.6 17.5 -0.7 58.4 -1.1

49709.8 49198.6 49117.9 49282.3 49775.1 50244.5 1327.2 1330.7 1334 1337 1340.3 1343.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1 1 1 682.2 682.4 682.8 683.1 684 685.2 1.3 0.6 0 0.2 0.3 0.4 8.8 9.1 9.7 9.9 10 10 4685 4304 4703 5719 6956 9356 2797 2612 3102 4088 5252 7020 1888 1692 1601 1631 1704 2336

*Quarterly at an annual rate

42

599.1 -4.4 27.7 -11 571.4 -4.1 38.9 -13.6 133.3 -3.4 30.4 72.9 30.6 9 -8 56.3 -5.7 83.8 -7.5 80.4 0.1 64 -2.3 28.7 -0.9 17.8 0.4 59.1 -1.6

53.3 2.4 28.8 24.5 44 2 39.8 32.8 46.1 2.9

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

50735 51279.3 51816.7 52399.2 53062.3 53638.3 54138.7 54746.6 1346.5 1349.7 1352.9 1356 1359.5 1363.2 1367.2 1371.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1 1 1.1 1.1 686.5 688.1 690.3 692.7 695 697.5 699.9 702.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 10 10 9.6 9.3 9.1 8.9 8.7 8.4 11231 12931 14488 15722 16917 18099 18922 19891 8793 10497 11934 13079 13935 14773 15271 16047 2438 2434 2554 2644 2982 3326 3651 3844

J ack s o n v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

March 2009 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

35.1 3.9 20.4 14.7 33.9 2.4 29.9 28.9 34.8 4.3

37.2 5.9 21.9 15.3 35.2 3.8 31 29.4 37 6.4

40.5 8.9 23.4 17.1 37.4 6.1 33.1 30.5 38.4 3.9

44.1 8.9 25 19.1 39.5 5.8 35.3 31.6 39.7 3.2

48.3 9.5 27.2 21.1 42.1 6.6 37.8 33 42 5.9

50.6 4.8 28.4 22.3 43 2.1 39 33.1 43.2 2.9

52 2.7 28.6 23.4 42.8 -0.5 39.5 32.5 43.9 1.6

52.6 1.1 28.5 24.1 43.7 2 39.5 32.8 45.4 3.4

54.1 3 29.2 24.9 44.4 1.6 40.3 33 46.5 2.4

56.8 4.8 30.6 26.1 45.7 3 41.8 33.7 47.4 2

59.9 5.6 32.2 27.8 47.5 3.9 43.6 34.6 48.3 1.8

623.7 3.1 33.3 -0.9 590.5 3.3 50 10.3 136.8 3.1 29.9 74.8 32.2 11.1 -6.9 59.8 0.9 94.5 5.6 74.5 4.4 62.1 2.9 27.6 3.1 16.9 -2.7 57 -0.1

632.4 1.4 32.2 -3.1 600.2 1.6 48.9 -2.4 138.9 1.5 30.7 75.8 32.4 10.2 -7.6 59.7 -0.2 94.8 0.4 77.5 4 65.1 4.8 28.7 4.1 17.1 0.8 59.2 3.9

627.2 -0.8 31.2 -3.3 596.1 -0.7 45.4 -7 138 -0.7 30.9 74.4 32.7 9.9 -3.4 59.8 0.2 91.5 -3.5 79.8 3 65.4 0.4 28.9 0.6 17.7 3.7 59.6 0.7

601.9 -4 28.2 -9.6 573.7 -3.7 40 -12 133.7 -3.1 30.5 73 30.9 9.1 -8 57 -4.7 84.3 -7.9 80.2 0.5 64.1 -1.9 28.6 -1.1 17.8 0.7 59 -1.1

602.6 0.1 26.8 -4.8 575.8 0.4 37.1 -7.2 135 1 30.9 75 30.4 8.8 -3.2 56.8 -0.3 85.4 1.3 82.4 2.8 64.3 0.4 28.7 0.4 17.6 -1.1 59.7 1.1

620.2 2.9 27.4 2.2 592.8 2.9 37.9 2.3 136.4 1 31.7 74.3 31.5 9.1 2.7 57.8 1.9 97.4 14 85.2 3.4 64 -0.5 28.4 -0.9 17.6 -0.1 59 -1.1

641.1 3.4 28.1 2.4 613 3.4 40.7 7.2 139.9 2.6 33 75.2 33.4 9.1 0.8 59.3 2.5 106.5 9.4 87.2 2.3 66.2 3.4 28 -1.5 17.5 -0.6 58.6 -0.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

561.5 -1 34.4 -4.9 527.1 -0.7 34.1 3.6 124.4 -0.9 25.9 68.1 30.4 13.2 -8.1 57.7 -0.3 86.1 -8.2 63.5 4 52.5 2.8 24.9 4.6 17.7 0.2 52.8 0.5

564.6 0.5 33.4 -3.1 531.2 0.8 36.7 7.4 125 0.4 26.8 68.8 29.4 12.4 -6.1 57.6 -0.1 84.1 -2.4 64.7 1.9 53.3 1.6 25.7 3 18 1.6 53.6 1.7

582 3.1 33.3 -0.3 548.7 3.3 40.9 11.5 128.1 2.5 26.9 71.2 30.1 11.6 -6.5 58.4 1.4 85.9 2.2 67.9 5 56.3 5.5 26.4 2.6 17.8 -1.3 55.4 3.3

605.2 4 33.6 0.9 571.7 4.2 45.4 11 132.7 3.6 27.8 73.9 31.1 11.9 2.4 59.3 1.5 89.4 4.1 71.3 4.9 60.4 7.3 26.8 1.6 17.4 -2.2 57.1 3

40335.5 43105.3 44933.2 47171.7 49961.5 1174.7 1197.6 1224.6 1250.9 1278.1 2.1 1.9 2.3 2.2 2.2 597.5 599.4 609.3 623.4 645.1 0.3 0.3 1.6 2.3 3.5 5.3 5 4.6 3.8 3.4 14252 15042 17883 23879 16715 11058 12825 13858 18655 12256 3194 2217 4024 5224 4459

50519 50740.7 49327.1 50508.5 52729.1 55058.1 1299.1 1317 1332.2 1345 1357.9 1373.9 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 1 1.2 667.5 679.1 682.6 686 693.9 703.7 3.5 1.7 0.5 0.5 1.2 1.4 3.9 5.8 9.4 10 9.2 8.4 10521 7254 4853 10118 16307 20191 7477 5347 3150 7891 13430 16161 3043 1907 1703 2228 2876 4031

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

43

Lake l a n d

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Lakeland MSA is comprised only of Polk County.

It is located in the western center of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus. It is home to a few attractions, including Cypress Gardens and Fantasy of Flight. Also, the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians conduct spring training in Lakeland and Winter Haven, respectively.

The Lakeland MSA will show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 3.6 percent annually, while average annual wage growth should be 1.8 percent. Employment growth is expected to grow 0.3 percent annually. Population growth is expected to be the second highest in the state, averaging an annual growth rate of 1.6 percent.

Professional and business services is expected to be the highest growing sector in the area, averaging a 2.3 percent growth rate, followed by the education and health services sector, averaging a growth rate of 2.1 percent a year. The unemployment rate in the area will average 10.5 percent, one of the highest in the state.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 574,746 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 267,983 in January 2008 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 4.8% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 12,734 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 6,644 employees • Lakeland Regional Medical Center – 4,540 employees • City of Lakeland Government – 2,600 employees • GEICO – 1,850 employees • Watson Clinic – 1,500 employees • GC Services – 1,000 employees • Summit Consulting – 1,000 employees • Rooms To Go – 900 employees • FedEx National LTL – 850 employees • Saddle Creek Corporation – 680 employees Source: Lakeland Economic Development Council

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Distribution center coming to Winter Haven • Marcobay Construction will develop a 200,000-square-foot, $10-million distribution center in the Inwood community of Winter Haven.

• The tenant behind the construction project is unknown but locals are happy to have it join others such as Best-Buy, Coca-Cola, and Wal-Mart.

Source: The Lakeland Ledger, February 18, 2009

Lakeland Electric turns $1.9-million profit first quarter • Four months after the start of its fiscal year in October 2008, Lakeland Electric showed a profit of $1.9 million.

• At this time a year ago Lakeland Electric was $1.6 million in the hole, indicating a $3.5 million turnaround for the first quarter.

Source:: The Lakeland Ledger, February 16, 2009

44

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

Lake l a n d

School district faces $30-million more in cutbacks • Polk County School District’s budget cuts have been increased from $60 million to $90 million.

• District officials are considering freezing school budgets in order to save some money this year.

• Officials are also expecting to implement unpaid layoffs, pay cuts and a hit to benefits.

Source: The Lakeland Ledger, February 10, 2009

Business barometer: Sports events benefit tourism • Revenue from vacation and home rentals in Polk County was up 3.6 percent in 2008, totaling $161.2 million.

• Although leisure and business travel was down, a number of regional and national sporting events hosted by Polk County helped the tourism industry be the only segment of the local economy to see a gain.

Source: The Lakeland Ledger, February 6, 2009

$200,000 aimed at attracting tourists • A $200,000 Polk County marketing effort will be pushing toward leisure travelers and sports organizations.

• After the closing of Cypress Gardens and USA International Speedway and the Cleveland Indians’ move of their spring training location, Polk County is working desperately to make up for its hurting economy.

• $100,000 of the money will be used to lure tourists by attracting 21 new sports-related activities that would equate to 25,000 hotel nights and $12 million in economic impact.

Source: The Lakeland Ledger, February 4, 2009

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

45

Lake l a n d

Lakeland MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.5

1

Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product 20000.0

6.0%

14000.0

4.0%

12000.0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate

10000.0

Lakeland Payroll Employment (Thousands)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Real Gross Metro Product

Lakeland Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

200.0

4.0%

190.0

2.0%

180.0

0.0%

170.0

46

(Millions 2000 $)

8.0%

210.0

160.0

2.5

16000.0

8.0%

220.0

2

18000.0

10.0%

2.0%

1.5

-2.0% 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Lakeland Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

-4.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Real Personal Income

Lake l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL

March 2009 Forecast

2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

18.5 1.1 7.6 10.8 15.3 0.8 30.9 25.6 37 2.7

18.7 0.9 7.6 11.1 15.6 2.1 31.2 26 37.3 3.4

18.8 1.5 7.6 11.2 15.6 3.7 31.1 25.9 37.5 2.9

18.8 1.9 7.6 11.2 15.6 2.6 31.1 25.8 37.6 2.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

205 -3.9 14.8 -9.9 190.2 -3.4 12.1 -17.7 47.8 -2.7 10 26.8 11.3 1.9 -8.4 11.4 -2 32.8 -6.8 28.7 2.2 17.3 -1.9 9.1 -2.1 1.4 -3.5 27.6 0.2

203.1 -3.9 14.4 -10.7 188.7 -3.3 11.7 -16.5 47.5 -3.3 10 26.7 11.2 1.9 -8.3 11.3 -3.4 32.1 -6.6 29 2.7 17.3 -2.7 9 -3.3 1.4 -1.8 27.6 1.2

201.9 -3.7 14 -11.8 187.9 -3.1 11.2 -18.3 47.5 -3.9 10 26.9 11.1 1.9 -8 11.1 -4.7 31.8 -3.9 29.1 2.1 17.2 -2.2 9.1 -0.7 1.4 -1.8 27.6 1.3

201 -3.9 13.7 -12.1 187.3 -3.2 11.1 -16.9 47.7 -2.5 10 27.3 11.1 1.9 -7.3 11.1 -3.2 31 -6.9 29.2 1.7 17.3 -0.4 9.2 -0.4 1.4 -2.4 27.5 -0.9

19 2.7 7.7 11.3 15.7 2.3 31.2 25.7 37.8 2.2

19.2 2.4 7.7 11.5 15.8 1 31.4 25.8 37.9 1.7

19.4 3.3 7.8 11.6 15.8 1.6 31.6 25.9 38.1 1.5

19.6 3.9 7.8 11.7 15.9 1.9 31.8 25.9 38.2 1.5

19.8 4.4 7.9 11.9 16.1 2.5 32.2 26.1 38.4 1.5

20 4.5 8 12 16.2 2.7 32.4 26.2 38.5 1.4

20.3 4.7 8.1 12.2 16.3 3 32.8 26.4 38.5 1.2

20.5 4.9 8.1 12.4 16.4 3.2 33 26.5 38.6 1

20.8 4.8 8.2 12.6 16.6 3.2 33.3 26.6 38.7 0.9

21.1 5.2 8.3 12.8 16.7 3.5 33.7 26.8 38.8 0.9

201.5 -1.7 13.6 -8.5 187.9 -1.2 11 -9.7 48 0.4 10.1 27.7 11.1 1.9 -4.4 11.2 -2 30.9 -5.8 29.3 2.1 17.4 0.5 9.1 0.3 1.4 2.5 27.8 0.6

202.4 -0.3 13.5 -6.3 188.9 0.1 10.8 -7.7 48.3 1.7 10.1 28.1 11.2 1.9 -3.2 11.3 0.3 31.3 -2.5 29.6 2.3 17.4 0.7 9.1 0.8 1.4 1.3 27.9 1

203.1 0.6 13.6 -2.7 189.5 0.8 10.7 -4.6 48.4 1.9 10.1 28.2 11.3 1.9 -1 11.3 1.8 31.6 -0.5 29.8 2.7 17.3 0.6 9.1 -0.4 1.4 0.5 27.8 0.8

204 1.5 13.7 -0.1 190.3 1.6 10.8 -2.4 48.5 1.7 10.2 28.2 11.3 1.9 1.6 11.4 2.1 32.4 4.5 30.1 3.1 17.2 -0.7 9 -1.3 1.4 -0.4 27.7 0.6

205.5 2 13.8 1.6 191.7 2 10.9 -0.7 48.7 1.5 10.3 28 11.5 1.9 3.6 11.4 2 33.4 8.1 30.2 2.9 17.1 -1.4 9 -1.4 1.4 -2.7 27.7 -0.4

207 2.3 13.9 2.8 193.1 2.2 11.1 2.7 48.8 1.1 10.4 27.7 11.7 1.9 5 11.5 1.7 34.4 9.8 30.4 2.6 17.1 -1.4 8.9 -1.6 1.4 -2.1 27.5 -1.3

208.7 2.8 13.9 2.4 194.8 2.8 11.3 5.2 49 1.1 10.5 27.5 11.9 2 4.6 11.6 2 35.4 11.8 30.6 2.4 17.3 -0.2 8.9 -2.1 1.3 -1.7 27.5 -1.2

210 2.9 14.1 2.5 196 3 11.5 6.7 49.2 1.5 10.6 27.5 12.1 2 3.6 11.6 2.1 36.1 11.4 30.7 2.1 17.5 1.5 8.9 -2 1.3 -1.8 27.2 -1.8

211.1 2.7 14.2 2.7 196.9 2.7 11.8 8.1 49.6 1.8 10.7 27.7 12.3 2 2.7 11.7 2.1 36.4 8.9 30.7 1.7 17.6 2.9 8.8 -2 1.3 -2.1 27.1 -1.9

212.5 2.7 14.3 2.9 198.3 2.7 12.1 8.8 50 2.4 10.8 27.9 12.5 2 1.7 11.8 2.2 36.7 6.6 30.8 1.2 17.7 3.4 8.7 -2.4 1.3 -2.1 27.2 -1

16765 16617.2 16595.8 16648.4 16818.9 17001.6 17140.8 17305.2 17478.6 17658.5 17859.7 18037.8 18177.3 18369.6 597.7 600.5 603.3 605.8 608.3 610.5 612.6 614.5 616.3 617.9 619.3 621.3 623.5 625.7 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 273.8 274.2 274.7 275 275.4 275.8 276.3 276.7 277.1 277.6 278.1 278.6 279.2 280 1.4 2 1.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 10 10.5 11.1 11.4 11.5 11.4 11.4 11.3 10.9 10.6 10.3 10 9.8 9.5 1506 1372 1591 2245 3163 4660 5886 6974 7927 8624 9216 9813 10204 10734 1010 999 1325 2007 2926 4239 5477 6605 7548 8267 8798 9334 9643 10132 496 372 266 238 238 421 409 369 380 357 418 479 562 601

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

47

Lake l a n d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

March 2009 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

12.5 2.1 5.8 6.7 12 0.6 25 24.1 30.9 1.7

13.1 4.7 6 7 12.4 2.7 25.6 24.3 31.7 2.7

14.4 10.6 6.5 7.9 13.3 7.7 27.6 25.5 32.2 1.7

15.9 10 7.2 8.7 14.2 6.9 29.4 26.3 33.5 3.8

17.5 9.9 7.7 9.8 15.2 7 31.3 27.3 35.4 5.8

18 3.4 7.8 10.3 15.3 0.8 31.4 26.7 35.9 1.4

18.5 2.2 7.7 10.8 15.2 -1 31.3 25.8 36.3 1.1

18.7 1.3 7.6 11.1 15.5 2.3 31.1 25.8 37.4 2.9

19.3 3.1 7.7 11.5 15.8 1.7 31.5 25.8 38 1.7

20.2 4.6 8 12.1 16.2 2.9 32.6 26.3 38.5 1.3

21.3 5.4 8.3 12.9 16.8 3.7 33.9 26.9 38.9 1.1

215.4 1.2 17.9 -3.1 197.5 1.6 16.9 3.1 48.9 1.8 10.4 26.1 12.5 2.4 2 11.6 3.2 36.7 -1.7 26.6 3.2 17 1.8 9.5 4.5 1.4 -1.5 26.7 1.7

215.4 0 17.1 -4.2 198.3 0.4 15.9 -5.4 49.3 0.7 10.3 26.3 12.6 2.2 -8.1 11.8 1.8 35.9 -2.1 27.6 3.8 17.3 2 9.2 -2.8 1.4 1.9 27.7 3.6

210.9 -2.1 16 -6.5 194.8 -1.7 14 -12.4 49.1 -0.2 10.1 26.7 12.4 2.1 -4.2 11.6 -1.1 34 -5.3 28.4 2.6 17.6 1.7 9.2 0.3 1.4 0 27.5 -0.8

202.8 -3.8 14.2 -11.1 188.5 -3.2 11.5 -17.4 47.6 -3.1 10 26.9 11.2 1.9 -8 11.2 -3.3 31.9 -6.1 29 2.2 17.3 -1.8 9.1 -1.6 1.4 -2.4 27.6 0.5

202.7 0 13.6 -4.5 189.1 0.3 10.8 -6.2 48.3 1.4 10.1 28 11.2 1.9 -1.8 11.3 0.5 31.6 -1.2 29.7 2.6 17.3 0.3 9.1 -0.2 1.4 1 27.8 0.7

207.8 2.5 13.9 2.3 193.9 2.5 11.2 3.5 48.9 1.3 10.4 27.7 11.8 1.9 4.2 11.5 2 34.8 10.3 30.5 2.5 17.3 -0.4 8.9 -1.8 1.4 -2.1 27.5 -1.2

213.3 2.6 14.3 2.7 199 2.6 12.1 8.4 50.2 2.6 10.9 28 12.6 2 1.8 11.8 2.1 36.9 6.1 30.8 1.1 17.8 3.1 8.7 -2.3 1.3 -2 27.3 -0.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

48

185.7 -0.3 18.4 -2.2 167.2 0 13.6 -2.8 44 -3 8.5 25 10.4 2.4 -4.9 10.8 5.3 24.4 1.6 22.5 -1.3 15.8 4.8 7.4 5.1 1.4 3 24.9 0.1

189.5 2.1 18.3 -0.8 171.2 2.4 13 -4.1 42.6 -3.2 9.1 22.8 10.6 2.3 -6.9 11.1 3.1 29.5 21 23.1 2.8 15.1 -4.4 7.5 2 1.4 -2 25.5 2.7

200.4 5.7 18.4 0.6 182 6.3 14.5 11.3 44.4 4.2 9.5 23.7 11.1 2.2 -1.2 11 -1.1 34.8 18 24.3 5.2 15.5 2.2 8.1 7.5 1.3 -2.5 25.8 1

212.9 6.2 18.5 0.3 194.4 6.8 16.4 12.6 48 8.3 10.4 25.5 12.2 2.3 2.9 11.2 1.7 37.3 7.2 25.8 6 16.7 7.7 9.1 11.8 1.4 4.3 26.3 1.9

13271.2 14097.5 15139.6 16544.2 16987.8 16989.9 16911.2 16656.6 17066.6 17758.7 18465.4 499.4 509.4 522.8 540.2 558.7 574.8 589.2 601.8 611.5 618.7 627 1.5 2 2.6 3.3 3.4 2.9 2.5 2.1 1.6 1.2 1.3 238.1 239.7 248.1 256.4 263 269.1 271.1 274.4 276.1 277.8 280.4 0.8 0.7 3.5 3.3 2.6 2.3 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.9 5.8 5.5 4.9 4.1 3.7 4.5 6.6 10.8 11.4 10.4 9.5 4907 6789 9088 12877 9528 4379 3239 1678 5171 8895 10835 4484 6169 8297 11725 8279 3999 2442 1335 4812 8487 10193 423 620 790 1152 1249 380 797 343 359 408 642

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B each

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Miami Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, this area is home to many sports teams, such as the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins, and the Florida Panthers. Other major businesses also reside in this metro, including the Miami Seaquarium, the University of Miami, and Florida International University.

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Miami Beach area is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. The area ranked first in the state for gross metro product, at a level of 214191.3, and for housing starts, which are expected to grow 138.5 percent annually.

Employment growth is expected to average 0.4 percent each year. Personal income is expected to grow 3.2 percent annually while average annual wage growth should be 2.2 percent, one of the highest in the state. Per capita income level is the second highest in Florida, at a level of 38.6.

Miami is expected to be the only metro area with declining population growth, averaging -0.2 percent each year.

Miami’s fastest growing sector is expected to be professional and business services at 4.4 percent annually, followed by education and health services at an average of 2.1 percent growth each year. Unemployment is expected to be 8.6 percent on average each year.

Quick Facts: • Metro area population estimate of 5,413,212 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,387,170 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Broward County population estimate of 1,759,591 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,266,451 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 2,821,912 in January 2008 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 4% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 114,108 unemployed people for the metro area.

(Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Miami-Dade County Public School – 54,387 employees • Miami-Dade County – 32,265 employees • Federal Government – 20,100 employees • Florida State Government – 18,900 employees • Jackson Health System – 11,700 employees • Baptist Health South Florida – 10,300 employees • University of Miami – 9,367 employees • American Airlines – 9,000 employees • United Parcel Service – 5,000 employees • BellSouth – 4,800 employees Source: Greater Miami Chamber of Commerce

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Hotel taxes in Keys will rise this summer • Hotel guests in the Florida Keys will see a 1 percent increase in hotel taxes this summer, up to 5 percent from the current 4 percent.

• The estimated $4 million generated in revenue will go to promotional efforts for the Florida Keys, doubling the current budget assigned to the five tourism districts.

Source: Miami Herald, March 20, 2009

Massive I-595 project is announced • I-595 is set to undergo major changes with a $1.8-billion project, the costliest road and bridge project in state history.

• The project, estimated to support 34,000 jobs, will be financed, built and maintained by ACS, one of the world’s largest builders of transportation projects.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

49

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B each

• With private funding the state will be able to complete the project in five years in comparison to the 20 it would take if it had to wait on the Florida Legislature or U.S. Congress.

Source: Miami Herald, March 19, 2009

South Florida home prices continue down but sales are up in January • The average price of Miami-Dade’s single-family homes fell 38 percent from a year ago to $208,100, while Broward County saw a drop of 39 percent to $191,000.

• Similarly, condo sale prices are down 48 percent and 44 percent for Miami-Dade and Broward counties, respectively.

• On the positive side, sales for single-family homes in both counties are up 50 percent while condo sales are up 30 percent.

Source: Miami Herald, February 25, 2009

$80-million project on Hollywood Beach scrapped • Problems with the financial market have led developers to pull the plug on the construction of the Marriott Ocean Village on Hollywood Beach.

• The $80-million project would have brought 80,000 square feet of retail and restaurant space to the city.

• City officials are looking for a project to take its place, but the task is proving difficult as they have been looking to develop the site since the early 1990s.

Source: Miami Herald, February 13, 2009

50

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

South Florida business bankruptcies highest since at least 1990 • The 1,403 business bankruptcy filings recorded in 2008 for South Florida represents an 80 percent increase from 2007 and is the highest since numbers were first recorded in 1990.

• Consumer filings were recorded at 18,826, which is a 71.5 percent increase from 2007.

Source: Miami Herald, January 6, 2009

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B each Miami - Ford Lauderdale - Miami Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.6

Miami Real Gross Metro Product 240000.0

6.0%

180000.0

4.0%

160000.0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate

140000.0

Miami Payroll Employment (Thousands)

(Millions 2000 $)

8.0% 6.0%

2300.0

4.0%

2200.0

2.0%

2100.0

0.0%

2000.0

-2.0% 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Miami Payroll Employment

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Real Gross Metro Product

Miami Real Personal Income

2400.0

1900.0

1.4

200000.0

8.0%

2500.0

1.2

220000.0

10.0%

2.0%

1

-4.0%

(percent change year ago)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

51

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B each

Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach (MD), FL

March 2009 Forecast

2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

238 0.7 110.9 127.1 197.4 0.4 44.4 36.9 47.1 3

240.9 0.4 110.8 130 200.4 1.5 45.1 37.5 47.5 3.6

240.7 0.6 110.8 129.8 200 2.9 45.1 37.5 47.8 3.2

241.2 1.4 111 130.2 200.1 2 45.3 37.6 48.1 3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2341.7 -3.7 86.5 -8.7 2255.2 -3.5 124.1 -16.4 520.4 -5.3 144.8 286.1 91.9 49.2 -5.1 166.8 -6.2 374.3 -5.3 335.4 2.9 254.1 -1.5 101.9 0.7 34.4 0 294.7 0.1

2318.5 -4.1 83.7 -10.3 2234.8 -3.8 119.7 -16.8 514.4 -5.6 143.1 283.1 91 48.2 -5.7 164.3 -6.4 367 -6.5 337.8 2.8 253.5 -2.1 101.2 -1 34.3 -0.1 294.4 0.9

2296.6 -3.4 79.5 -12.1 2217 -3.1 111.9 -15.2 513.6 -2.9 142.4 286 89 46.4 -7.9 162.6 -4.3 358.7 -6.9 339.6 1.6 253.7 -0.9 103.3 0.5 34.3 -0.3 293 -0.3

245.4 1.9 113 132.4 201.5 0.6 46.1 37.9 48.5 2.1

247.7 2.9 113.8 133.9 202.4 1.2 46.6 38.1 48.8 2

249.9 3.6 114.9 135 203.4 1.6 47 38.3 49 1.9

252.7 4 116.3 136.4 204.7 2.1 47.6 38.5 49.3 2

255.4 4.1 117.5 137.9 206.1 2.3 48.1 38.8 49.4 1.8

258.3 4.3 118.9 139.4 207.6 2.6 48.6 39 49.6 1.6

260.8 4.4 120 140.8 208.9 2.7 49 39.2 49.7 1.5

263.6 4.3 121.2 142.4 210.3 2.7 49.5 39.5 49.9 1.4

267.4 4.7 122.5 144.9 212.4 3 50.1 39.8 50.1 1.4

2303 -1.7 78.4 -9.3 2224.5 -1.4 110.8 -10.7 514.9 -1.1 142.5 288.5 89 45.9 -6.8 163.4 -2 361.3 -3.5 340.4 1.5 253.9 -0.1 102.9 1 35.7 3.8 295.4 0.3

2314.4 -0.2 77.7 -7.1 2236.7 0.1 108.1 -9.6 516.2 0.3 142.6 290.8 89.5 45.5 -5.5 164.3 0.1 369.9 0.8 343.3 1.6 253.8 0.1 102.9 1.7 36.5 6.3 296.2 0.6

2321.1 0.7 78.5 -3.4 2242.5 0.8 107.1 -6.1 516.3 0.6 142.2 291.1 89.5 45.8 -3.2 164.7 1.5 377 3.4 345.9 2.2 252.5 -0.1 103.1 0.6 34.7 1.3 295.5 0.4

2332.7 1.6 79 -0.7 2253.6 1.7 108 -3.4 516.1 0.5 142 290.5 89.4 46.1 -0.6 165.4 1.7 388.9 8.4 348.7 2.7 249.9 -1.5 103 -0.3 34.1 -0.7 293.5 0.2

2347.9 2 79.4 1.2 2268.5 2 108.9 -1.7 516.3 0.3 142.8 288.8 90.4 46.4 1.3 166 1.6 403.5 11.7 350 2.8 247.6 -2.5 102.6 -0.4 33.9 -4.9 293.5 -0.7

2364.9 2.2 79.7 2.6 2285.2 2.2 110.4 2.1 515.6 -0.1 143.7 285.8 91.7 46.9 2.9 166.6 1.4 418.4 13.1 352.2 2.6 247.3 -2.5 102.3 -0.6 33.8 -7.3 291.6 -1.5

2385.4 2.8 79.9 1.8 2305.5 2.8 112.3 4.8 515.9 -0.1 145 283.4 93.1 47 2.6 167.5 1.7 432.8 14.8 354.3 2.4 249.2 -1.3 101.8 -1.3 33.7 -2.8 291 -1.5

2401.5 3 80.5 1.8 2321 3 114.3 5.8 517.6 0.3 146.2 283 94.7 46.9 1.8 168.6 2 443.7 14.1 356.1 2.1 251.3 0.5 101.6 -1.4 33.6 -1.3 287.3 -2.1

2415.9 2.9 80.9 1.9 2334.9 2.9 116.8 7.3 519.9 0.7 147.1 283.8 96 46.9 1 169.5 2.1 450.3 11.6 357 2 253.2 2.3 101.2 -1.4 33.5 -1.3 286.7 -2.3

2431.6 2.8 81.3 2 2350.3 2.8 119.5 8.2 523.2 1.5 148 285.5 97 46.9 0 170.5 2.3 456.2 9 357.6 1.5 254.8 3 100.5 -1.7 33.4 -1.3 287.6 -1.4

206667 204426 203816 204314 206296 208458 209939 211880 213885 216024 218478 220559 222268 224456 5354.8 5345 5336.2 5327.7 5321.8 5316.9 5313.3 5311.1 5311.4 5313.6 5317.4 5322.5 5328.8 5336.8 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 2859.6 2858 2856.7 2855.9 2856.1 2856.3 2856.9 2858.2 2858.8 2860.7 2863.2 2866.5 2869.8 2873 0.6 0 -0.7 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 7.8 8.3 8.8 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.3 9.2 8.9 8.7 8.5 8.3 8.1 7.9 2508 1674 3072 5972 9650 17655 22892 27189 31341 34633 38373 42404 45898 49147 412 247 1672 4055 7273 11920 16683 21028 24676 27643 30061 32488 34353 36561 2096 1427 1400 1918 2377 5735 6210 6161 6665 6990 8312 9916 11545 12586

*Quarterly at an annual rate

52

2305.1 -4.1 81.3 -11.2 2223.8 -3.8 114.1 -17.4 513 -5 142.5 284 89.5 47.3 -6.6 162.3 -6.2 364.7 -6.6 338.4 3 252.8 -2 102.6 0.5 34.2 0.1 294.4 -0.9

242.9 2.1 111.9 131 200.5 1.6 45.6 37.7 48.3 2.6

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B each

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach (MD), FL

March 2009 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

169.8 3.6 84.1 85.7 164 2.2 32.7 31.6 37.8 2.7

174 2.5 87.6 86.4 164.8 0.5 33.1 31.4 39.2 3.8

189.8 9.1 93.5 96.3 175.1 6.3 35.7 32.9 40.7 3.7

205.6 8.3 101.1 104.5 184.2 5.2 38.2 34.3 42.4 4.1

222.4 8.2 107.9 114.6 193.9 5.3 41.2 35.9 44.3 4.6

232.7 4.6 111.5 121.2 197.8 2 43.1 36.7 45.6 2.8

238.4 2.4 111.7 126.7 196.1 -0.8 44.4 36.5 46.1 1.3

240.2 0.8 110.9 129.3 199.5 1.7 45 37.3 47.6 3.2

246.5 2.6 113.4 133.1 201.9 1.2 46.4 38 48.6 2.2

256.8 4.2 118.2 138.6 206.8 2.4 48.3 38.9 49.5 1.7

269.5 5 123.3 146.2 213.5 3.2 50.5 40 50.3 1.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2210.2 -0.1 112.4 -8.6 2097.9 0.4 118.8 -1.1 515.3 -1.5 132 286.1 97.1 61.8 -6.1 162.4 1.8 341 0.6 273.9 4.1 224.4 -1.1 93.6 0.3 32.1 1.3 274.7 2.5

2218.1 0.4 103.4 -8 2114.7 0.8 120.3 1.3 509.8 -1.1 133.9 282 93.9 57.5 -6.9 163.9 1 344.2 0.9 283.3 3.4 228.9 2 95.4 1.9 34.1 6.2 277.4 1

2285.3 3 100.8 -2.5 2184.5 3.3 129.4 7.6 516.3 1.3 138.3 284.9 93.2 56.6 -1.6 169.6 3.5 368.8 7.1 292.8 3.4 239.8 4.7 97.3 2 34.2 0.4 279.8 0.9

2372 3.8 101.1 0.3 2270.9 4 145.3 12.3 529.4 2.5 140.8 293.3 95.3 55.9 -1.1 177.8 4.8 397.3 7.7 300.8 2.7 247 3 98.6 1.3 34.5 1 284.3 1.6

2419.8 2 100.6 -0.5 2319.2 2.1 162.2 11.6 542.7 2.5 144.2 302.7 95.7 53.2 -4.8 183.1 3 399.7 0.6 307.2 2.1 251.1 1.7 98.9 0.3 34 -1.4 287.1 1

2434 0.6 97.6 -2.9 2336.3 0.7 158.5 -2.3 547.2 0.8 147 304.4 95.8 52 -2.3 180.7 -1.3 398.7 -0.2 317.8 3.5 256.1 2 100.8 2 33.8 -0.8 290.6 1.2

2407.6 -1.1 92.5 -5.2 2315.1 -0.9 140.6 -11.3 540.9 -1.2 147.5 297.7 95.7 51 -2 174.1 -3.7 390.8 -2 329.2 3.6 257.8 0.7 102.1 1.2 34.3 1.6 294.3 1.3

2315.5 -3.8 82.7 -10.6 2232.7 -3.6 117.4 -16.5 515.4 -4.7 143.2 284.8 90.3 47.8 -6.3 164 -5.8 366.2 -6.3 337.8 2.6 253.5 -1.6 102.3 0.2 34.3 -0.1 294.1 -0.1

2317.8 0.1 78.4 -5.2 2239.3 0.3 108.5 -7.6 515.9 0.1 142.3 290.2 89.3 45.8 -4.1 164.5 0.3 374.2 2.2 344.6 2 252.5 -0.4 103 0.7 35.2 2.7 295.2 0.4

2374.9 2.5 79.9 1.8 2295.1 2.5 111.5 2.7 516.3 0.1 144.4 285.2 92.5 46.8 2.1 167.2 1.7 424.6 13.4 353.1 2.5 248.9 -1.5 102.1 -0.9 33.8 -4.1 290.8 -1.5

2440.2 2.7 81.4 1.9 2358.8 2.8 120.2 7.8 525 1.7 148.6 286.3 97.6 46.9 0.3 170.8 2.2 460.1 8.4 358.1 1.4 255.7 2.7 100.4 -1.6 33.4 -1.2 288.3 -0.9

181143 5195.5 1.5 2573.3 1.1 6.2 37858 21870 15987

187614 5254.7 1.1 2587.9 0.6 5.7 37956 23592 14364

196706 5320.4 1.3 2632.3 1.7 5.1 40690 23676 17014

211505 5377.2 1.1 2703.6 2.7 4.2 41844 22548 19295

218111 5401 0.4 2770.2 2.5 3.6 32801 15772 17029

218292 5394.2 -0.1 2825.2 2 3.8 14805 7580 7225

218121 5373.6 -0.4 2859.3 1.2 5.5 7941 3719 4221

204806 5341 -0.6 2857.6 -0.1 8.5 3306 1596 1710

209143 5315.8 -0.5 2856.9 0 9.3 19346 14226 5121

217237 5316.2 0 2862.3 0.2 8.6 36688 28717 7971

225580 5342.1 0.5 2875.9 0.5 7.9 50502 36974 13527

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

53

Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Naples–Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier County only. Located on the southwest coast of Florida, the area is notable for numerous recreation and leisure activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the “Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida.”

The Naples–Marco Island MSA is ranked number one in the state of Florida for personal income growth, per capita income, and average annual wage level. Personal income will grow at a rate of 4.9 percent and per capita income will average a level of 56.0. Average annual wage will be at a level of 49.8. The average annual wage is expected to grow at a rate of 2.3 percent. Housing starts will average a growth rate of 99.4 percent annually, the second highest in the state. Employment growth is expected to average 0.9 percent growth each year.

Professional and business services represents Naples’ fastest growing sector, growing at a rate of 3.5 percent each year. Following that sector is education and health services, with a growth rate of 2.8 percent annually. The area’s unemployment is expected to average 9.8 percent annually.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 315,839 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 151,587 in January 2008 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 4.8% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 7,220 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Collier County School Board – 3,350 employees • NCH Healthcare Systems – 2,700 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,755 employees • Collier County Government – 1,060 employees • Marriott Corporation – 860 employees • County Sheriff’s Department – 838 employees • Winn Dixie Stores, Inc. – 760 employees • The Ritz-Carlton, Naples – 758 employees • Naples Registry Resort – 600 employees • Collier Enterprises – 500 employees Source: Naples Homes Real Estate and Relocation Services

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s February existing home sales rise by 5.1% • Sales of existing homes rose 5.1 percent from January to February, indicating the largest jump since July 2003.

• The median sale price is down 15.5 percent from $195,800 to $165,400.

Source: Naples News, March 23, 2009

Collier County supports plan to lure high-wage jobs • Collier County has a plan to attract high-wage jobs into the area by offering incentives to companies to locate in newly created “economic development zones”.

• The county will focus on bringing in three types of companies, including clean technology, health and life sciences, and computer software and sciences.

Source: Naples News, January 8, 2009

54

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d

Marco to build “green” utility building • The city of Marco Island is in the process of designing a green utility building at 803 Elkcam Circle.

• The design is being done by the firm Astorino and is expected to cost $484,000. The building itself is expected to cost $4 million.

• The project is confronting a bit of controversy due to the high design costs required during a bad economy, but the environmentally-friendly building is still gaining enough support to be built.

Source: Naples News, January 5, 2009

NCH has healthy financial outlook as many hospitals struggle • NCH Healthcare System’s net worth has increased $60 million over the last two years.

• NCH, which is 4 percent busier than it was this time last year, is doing better than most medical institutions in the area.

• Nonetheless, NCH has already laid off 79 employees and is preparing to be affected more heavily with the current recession than it was in 2001-2002.

Source: Naples News, December 28, 2008

Collier’s EDC begins international trade initiative • The Economic Development Council will be identifying and capitalizing on opportunities for export trade development and foreign direct investment through an international trade initiative.

• The project’s four objectives are to reach out to current Collier businesses, create and distribute marketing and trade event materials, market development with trade partners, and create a potential outbound trade mission.

Source: Naples News, December 17, 2008

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

55

Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d Naples MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.5

1

11000.0

8.0%

8000.0

6.0%

7000.0 5000.0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate

4000.0

Naples Payroll Employment (Thousands)

130.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Real Personal Income 25.0%

(percent change year ago)

20.0%

120.0

15.0%

110.0

10.0%

100.0

5.0%

90.0

0.0%

80.0

56

(Millions 2000 $)

6000.0

4.0%

70.0

2.5

10000.0 9000.0

140.0

2

Naples Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

2.0%

1.5

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Naples Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

-5.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Real Personal Income

Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

March 2009 Forecast

2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

20.2 0.7 5.8 14.3 16.7 0.4 63.5 52.7 47.7 2.8

20.7 1.2 5.9 14.8 17.2 2.4 65.2 54.2 48.2 3.6

20.7 1.6 5.9 14.8 17.2 3.8 65.1 54.1 48.5 3.3

20.9 2.8 5.9 15 17.3 3.5 65.6 54.4 48.8 3.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

21 4.2 6 15.1 17.4 3.7 66 54.5 49 2.7

21.2 2.5 6 15.2 17.4 1.2 66.5 54.6 49.3 2.2

21.5 3.8 6.1 15.4 17.6 2.1 67.1 54.8 49.6 2.1

21.8 4.4 6.1 15.6 17.7 2.5 67.8 55.2 49.8 2

22.1 5.1 6.2 15.9 17.9 3.2 68.6 55.6 50.1 2.1

22.5 6.1 6.3 16.2 18.2 4.3 69.7 56.2 50.3 1.9

23 6.9 6.4 16.6 18.5 5.2 70.8 56.9 50.4 1.8

23.3 7 6.5 16.8 18.7 5.3 71.5 57.3 50.6 1.6

23.7 7.1 6.6 17.1 18.9 5.4 72.3 57.7 50.8 1.5

24.3 7.7 6.7 17.6 19.3 6 73.8 58.6 51 1.5

123.7 2.3 2.7 1.8 121 2.3 12.3 0.6 22.9 1.9 3.5 18.6 1.4 1.7 4.4 8.1 3.9 15.7 8.3 18 3.7 22.5 -0.6 5.7 0.8 0.6 -1.3 13.6 0.9

124.8 2.7 2.8 3 122.1 2.7 12.5 4.8 22.9 1.3 3.6 18.5 1.4 1.7 6.1 8.2 3.3 16.2 10.2 18.1 3.2 22.6 -0.6 5.7 0.6 0.6 -0.8 13.6 -0.2

126.2 3.4 2.8 3.1 123.4 3.4 12.8 7.8 23 1 3.6 18.4 1.5 1.7 6.1 8.2 3.4 16.7 12.4 18.2 2.9 22.9 0.8 5.7 0 0.6 -0.5 13.6 -0.3

127.3 3.7 2.8 3.5 124.5 3.7 13.2 8.8 23.1 1 3.7 18.5 1.5 1.7 5.1 8.3 3.5 17 12.2 18.3 2.4 23.2 2.8 5.7 0 0.6 -0.7 13.4 -0.9

128.4 3.8 2.8 3.7 125.6 3.8 13.5 10.4 23.2 1.2 3.7 18.6 1.5 1.7 4.2 8.4 3.5 17.2 10 18.3 1.8 23.4 4.3 5.7 -0.1 0.6 -0.7 13.5 -1.2

129.8 4 2.9 3.9 127 4 14 11.4 23.4 2.2 3.8 18.8 1.6 1.7 3.2 8.5 3.7 17.4 7.9 18.4 1.6 23.7 4.9 5.7 -0.6 0.6 -0.6 13.5 -0.2

121.9 -4.8 2.9 -8.3 118.9 -4.7 13.4 -21.3 22.4 -4.7 3.3 17.9 1.4 1.6 -7 7.9 -2.2 15.1 -3.2 16.8 3.2 22.2 -3.1 5.6 -1.4 0.6 -3.8 13.3 -0.6

121 -4.7 2.9 -9.8 118.1 -4.5 12.9 -21.5 22.2 -3.5 3.3 17.8 1.4 1.6 -5.4 7.8 -3 14.9 -4 17 3.4 22.3 -3 5.5 -2.5 0.6 -4 13.3 -0.3

120.4 -4.4 2.8 -10.7 117.6 -4.2 12.4 -21.9 22.2 -4 3.3 17.9 1.4 1.6 -5.5 7.7 -4.1 14.8 -3.1 17.1 2.4 22.3 -1.1 5.6 -1.7 0.6 -2.9 13.3 0.6

120.3 -3.1 2.7 -12.2 117.6 -2.9 12.2 -17.8 22.3 -1.7 3.4 18 1.4 1.6 -6.2 7.7 -2.4 14.5 -5.5 17.2 2.7 22.5 0.7 5.7 0.2 0.6 -2.1 13.3 0.4

120.9 -0.8 2.7 -8.6 118.2 -0.6 12.2 -9 22.5 0.3 3.4 18.3 1.4 1.6 -3.8 7.8 -1 14.5 -4.5 17.3 3 22.6 1.7 5.7 1.3 0.6 2.4 13.5 1.9

121.6 0.5 2.7 -6 118.9 0.6 12 -7.5 22.6 1.8 3.4 18.5 1.4 1.6 -2.7 7.9 1.8 14.7 -1.3 17.5 3.2 22.7 1.9 5.7 2.4 0.6 2.4 13.6 2.3

122.1 1.4 2.7 -2.5 119.4 1.5 11.9 -3.5 22.7 2.2 3.4 18.6 1.4 1.6 -0.6 8 3.8 14.8 0.3 17.7 3.6 22.7 1.7 5.7 1.5 0.6 1.9 13.6 2.1

122.8 2.1 2.7 0 120.1 2.1 12.1 -0.9 22.8 2.2 3.4 18.7 1.4 1.6 2.1 8 4.1 15.2 5 17.9 4 22.6 0.3 5.7 0.6 0.6 1.4 13.6 1.9

9458.8 317.8 0.4 151 0.4 9.3 530 314 216

9379.7 317.9 0.3 151.9 0.7 9.8 441 312 129

9368.3 318.1 0.2 152.7 0.9 10.3 584 468 116

9422.3 318.4 0.2 153.5 2 10.6 907 715 191

9544 318.9 0.3 154.3 2.2 10.7 1370 1088 282

9661 319.6 0.5 155.1 2.1 10.7 2395 1606 790

9753.5 320.3 0.7 155.8 2.1 10.7 2987 2128 858

9872.1 321.2 0.9 156.6 2 10.6 3477 2620 857

9990.8 10121.7 10267.5 10397.8 10510.1 10662.2 322.2 323.4 324.6 326 327.4 329 1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 157.4 158.2 159 159.8 160.7 161.7 2 2 2 2 2.1 2.2 10.1 9.8 9.6 9.3 9.1 8.8 3973 4384 4857 5384 5806 6222 3059 3416 3691 3968 4146 4408 914 968 1166 1416 1660 1814

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

57

Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

March 2009 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

11.6 4.9 4 7.6 11.2 3.5 42 40.6 35.6 1.6

12.3 5.9 4.4 7.9 11.6 3.8 43 40.7 38.7 8.6

14.8 20.8 4.9 9.9 13.7 17.6 50 46.2 40.4 4.5

16.5 11.2 5.5 11.1 14.8 8.1 53.8 48.2 42.4 4.8

18.2 10.1 5.8 12.3 15.9 7.1 58.2 50.7 43.1 1.7

19.5 7.3 6 13.5 16.6 4.6 61.9 52.6 45.4 5.4

20.3 4.1 5.9 14.4 16.7 0.8 64 52.7 46.8 3.2

20.6 1.6 5.9 14.7 17.1 2.5 64.8 53.8 48.3 3.2

21.4 3.7 6.1 15.3 17.5 2.4 66.8 54.8 49.4 2.3

22.7 6.3 6.3 16.4 18.3 4.5 70.2 56.5 50.3 1.8

24.5 8 6.7 17.8 19.4 6.2 74.4 58.9 51.2 1.7

121.8 0.8 2.7 -4.4 119.1 0.9 12 -5.4 22.7 1.6 3.4 18.5 1.4 1.6 -1.3 7.9 2.2 14.8 -0.2 17.6 3.5 22.7 1.4 5.7 1.5 0.6 2.1 13.6 2

125.5 3 2.8 2.8 122.7 3 12.7 5.5 23 1.3 3.6 18.5 1.5 1.7 5.4 8.2 3.5 16.4 10.8 18.1 3.1 22.8 0.6 5.7 0.3 0.6 -0.8 13.6 -0.1

130.5 4 2.9 3.7 127.6 4 14.1 10.9 23.5 2.5 3.8 18.9 1.6 1.7 3.3 8.5 3.6 17.6 7.4 18.4 1.5 23.8 4.6 5.7 -0.5 0.6 -0.5 13.6 0.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

58

110.8 4.1 3.1 -3.4 107.7 4.3 14.7 1 22.7 2.1 3.3 17.6 1.9 1.8 -1 6.5 4.5 13.4 7.1 12.8 5.1 18.3 5.3 5.5 7 0.7 0 11.3 7.1

114.1 3 2.9 -5.3 111.2 3.3 14.6 -0.8 22.4 -1.3 3.1 17.7 1.7 1.7 -3.3 6.7 2.6 16.1 19.8 13.2 3.3 18.5 1.2 5.5 -0.3 0.7 0 11.8 4.5

120.6 5.7 3.1 5.9 117.5 5.7 16.8 14.8 23 2.4 3.3 18 1.7 1.8 7.3 7.1 5.9 17.4 8.1 13.4 1.9 20.1 8.2 5.4 -1.4 0.7 0 11.9 1

128.3 6.4 3.2 3 125.1 6.5 20.3 21.4 24.3 5.6 3.4 19.1 1.8 1.8 0 7.7 9.4 16.3 -6.5 14.5 7.9 21.5 7.4 5.7 5.2 0.7 0.1 12.3 2.9

135 5.2 3.3 3.6 131.7 5.2 23.9 17.6 24.5 0.9 3.2 19.5 1.7 1.9 3.2 8.1 5.6 16.8 3.2 15.4 5.9 21.9 1.7 5.8 1.9 0.7 0 12.7 3.3

131.6 -2.5 3.3 -1.8 128.3 -2.5 19.6 -17.9 24.1 -1.7 3.4 19.1 1.6 1.8 -3.1 8.1 -0.6 15.9 -5.3 16.2 5.3 22.8 4.1 5.8 1.2 0.7 0 13.2 4.3

126.3 -4 3.1 -3.6 123.1 -4 16 -18.2 23.1 -4 3.4 18.2 1.5 1.7 -5.5 8 -1.2 15.4 -3 16.5 2.1 22.7 -0.5 5.7 -2.5 0.6 -14.3 13.3 0.4

120.9 -4.3 2.8 -10.2 118.1 -4.1 12.7 -20.7 22.3 -3.5 3.3 17.9 1.4 1.6 -6 7.8 -2.9 14.8 -3.9 17 2.9 22.3 -1.7 5.6 -1.3 0.6 -3.2 13.3 0

7488.1 276.4 4 129.6 4.9 5.1 7078 4279 2799

7960.8 286.1 3.5 133.1 2.7 4.9 5334 3403 1932

8571.7 296.6 3.7 138.4 3.9 4.2 6101 4018 2083

9439.3 306.7 3.4 144.6 4.5 3.5 5724 4038 1686

9957.9 312.6 1.9 152.2 5.3 3.1 4256 3050 1206

9613.8 315.1 0.8 152.2 0 4.3 1959 1160 800

9392.6 317.1 0.6 150.8 -1 6.7 991 692 299

9407.3 318 0.3 152.3 1 10 615 452 163

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

9707.6 10194.4 10736.4 320 324 330 0.6 1.3 1.8 155.4 158.6 162.2 2.1 2 2.3 10.6 9.7 8.7 2557 4650 6412 1860 3533 4459 697 1116 1953

Oca l a

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

Comprised of Marion County only, the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area in the center of the state. The second-largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area.

The Ocala MSA has the highest expected annual population growth in the state at 2.1 percent. Housing starts are expected to average 81.8 percent annually, one of the highest figures in the state. Personal income growth is expected to average 4.3 percent annually, the second highest growth in the state. Employment growth is expected to grow on average 0.7 percent annually. Relative to other metro areas, Ocala has the lowest average annual wage levels, at a level of 35.7 each year. Personal income level is the lowest in the state at a level of 24.7.

Professional and business services is expected to be the fastest growing sector in Ocala, averaging an annual growth rate of 3.7 percent, followed by education and health services, which will grow at 3.4 percent annually.

Ocala also is expected to have the highest unemployment rate in Florida, averaging 12.3 percent a year.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 324,857 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 136,167 in January 2008 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 5.7% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 7,800 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Marion County School Board – 6,000+ employees • Munroe Regional Medical Center – 2,500 employees • Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – 2,385 employees • State of Florida (all departments) – 2,263 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,450 employees • Marion County Board of County Commissioners – 1,342 employees • Ocala Regional Medical Center – 1,301 employees • Emergency One, Inc. – 1,274 employees • City of Ocala – 1,244 employees • AT&T – 1,000 employees Source: Ocala/Marion Economic Development Council

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Schools’ reduction more than expected • Marion County’s education system is facing a $44-million budget shortfall as a result of a 16 percent reduction in statewide funding for the 2009-10 school year, which is one-third more than the $33 million shortfall previously expected.

• The Marion County School District did not renew 522 first- and second-year teachers’ contracts.

Source: The Ocala Star Banner, February 19, 2009

County OKs nickel-a-gallon gas tax • Marion County commissioners approved a 5-centa-gallon gas tax targeted to repay the $100 million the county intends to borrow to fund road projects.

The tax, which will take effect January 2010, is slated to apply for 30 years.

• County officials estimate the tax will generate a total of $7.8 million a year, $2.3 million of which will be split among the five cities in the county, and the remaining $5.5 million will go to Marion County.

Source: The Ocala Star Banner, February 18, 2009

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

59

Oca l a

Developer plans a 414-lot subdivision east of Ocala Palms • Bayi LLC is planning to build a 414-lot singlefamily subdivision called Heath Preserve on 192 acres off U.S. 27, east of Ocala Palms. The developer also plans to build a 312-unit apartment complex, a 55,688-square-foot shopping center, a restaurant, and a bank.

• The homes are expected to cost between $200,000 and $250,000, and Heath Preserve is expected to be completed in 2014. The Ocala City Council has currently only approved the plan for the singlefamily homes.

Source: The Ocala Star Banner, January 22, 2009

Gross sales down 43 percent at OBS Winter Mixed • Evidence of the struggling equine industry was seen at Ocala Breeders’ Sales Company’s first thoroughbred sale of 2009. The first day of the sale saw a 43 percent drop in gross sales compared to a year ago and the second day’s gross sales were nearly 73 percent lower than a year ago, despite an increase in the number of horses sold.

• The preferred session of the Winter Mixed Sale’s average price was only $8,632 compared to $23,346 a year ago, and the average sales price on the second day of the sale was only $3,879 compared to $6,546 a year ago.

Source: The Ocala Star Banner, January 8, 2009

60

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

State OKs plan to divert runoff from ‘monster pipe’ • The Acquisition and Restoration Council (ARC) approved Marion County’s plan to divert storm water runoff from a drainage pipe at Half Mile Creek to a retention pond. The county plans to dam the five-foot-wide “monster pipe” and reroute the runoff to state-owned property across from Silver Springs.

• The $3-million project, which will be primarily funded by the state, will dump the equivalent of 10 dump trucks of untreated pollutants each year.

Source: The Ocala Star Banner, December 19, 2008

Oca l a Ocala MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

10000.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

(Millions 2000 $)

8000.0 7000.0 6000.0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate

5000.0

(Thousands)

10.0% 8.0%

100.0

6.0%

95.0

4.0%

90.0

2.0%

85.0

0.0%

80.0

-2.0% 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Ocala Payroll Employment

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Real Gross Metro Product

Ocala Real Personal Income

105.0

75.0

1

Ocala Real Gross Metro Product

Ocala Payroll Employment 110.0

0.8

9000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

-4.0%

(percent change year ago)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

61

Oca l a

Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL

March 2009 Forecast

2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

9.9 1.6 3.5 6.4 8.2 1.4 29 24 34.4 2.8

10 1.5 3.5 6.5 8.4 2.7 29.4 24.4 34.7 3.5

10.1 2.2 3.5 6.6 8.4 4.5 29.3 24.3 34.9 3.2

10.1 2.9 3.5 6.6 8.4 3.6 29.3 24.3 35.1 3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

10.3 3 3.6 6.8 8.5 1.7 29.6 24.3 35.4 2.1

10.5 4 3.6 6.9 8.6 2.3 29.8 24.4 35.6 1.9

10.6 4.5 3.7 6.9 8.6 2.6 30 24.4 35.7 1.8

10.7 5.1 3.7 7 8.7 3.1 30.3 24.6 35.9 1.9

10.9 5.1 3.7 7.1 8.8 3.3 30.6 24.7 36 1.8

11 5.2 3.8 7.2 8.9 3.5 30.9 24.8 36.1 1.6

11.2 5.3 3.8 7.3 8.9 3.6 31.1 24.9 36.2 1.5

11.3 5.2 3.9 7.4 9 3.6 31.3 25 36.4 1.3

11.5 5.8 3.9 7.6 9.1 4.1 31.8 25.2 36.5 1.4

101 -4.1 8.2 -11.7 92.8 -3.4 8.4 -17 22.6 -5.1 4.3 15.7 2.8 1.7 -8.8 5.7 -3.1 8.2 -2.6 13.7 3 10.4 -2.7 4.4 -2.1 0.7 -3.5 17.1 1.4

100.3 -4 7.9 -12.6 92.3 -3.2 8.1 -16 22.4 -5.1 4.3 15.6 2.8 1.7 -7.4 5.6 -5.1 8 -4.5 13.9 4.3 10.4 -2.4 4.3 -4.4 0.7 -3.5 17.1 2.4

99.9 -3.5 7.7 -12.6 92.2 -2.7 7.8 -16.5 22.5 -3.9 4.3 15.8 2.7 1.7 -6.6 5.5 -5.3 8 -3.6 14 4.1 10.4 -1.8 4.4 -1.4 0.7 -3.6 17.2 2.2

99.8 -3.1 7.6 -12.5 92.2 -2.3 7.7 -16.2 22.7 -1.2 4.3 16 2.7 1.7 -7.2 5.5 -2.9 7.8 -5.8 14.1 2.9 10.5 1 4.4 -0.6 0.7 -3.5 17.1 -0.1

100.3 -0.7 7.5 -9 92.8 0 7.7 -8.2 22.8 1.3 4.3 16.2 2.7 1.7 -4.5 5.6 -1.5 7.8 -4.8 14.2 3.4 10.6 2 4.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 17.4 1.7

100.8 0.6 7.4 -6.8 93.4 1.2 7.6 -6.7 23 2.6 4.3 16.5 2.8 1.7 -3.2 5.7 1.1 7.9 -1.4 14.4 3.5 10.6 2.2 4.4 1.9 0.7 0 17.5 2.1

101.3 1.4 7.5 -3 93.8 1.8 7.6 -3.4 23.1 2.7 4.3 16.6 2.8 1.7 -1 5.7 3 8 0.6 14.6 4 10.6 1.8 4.4 1.1 0.7 -0.2 17.5 1.8

101.8 2 7.5 -0.3 94.2 2.2 7.7 -1 23.2 2.3 4.3 16.6 2.8 1.7 1.6 5.7 3.3 8.2 5.7 14.7 4.4 10.5 0.2 4.4 0.2 0.7 -0.4 17.4 1.5

102.4 2.1 7.6 1.5 94.8 2.2 7.8 0.6 23.3 1.8 4.4 16.6 2.8 1.7 3.6 5.8 3.1 8.5 9.3 14.8 4.2 10.5 -0.7 4.4 0.5 0.7 -1.2 17.4 0.3

103.1 2.2 7.6 2.8 95.5 2.2 7.9 4.4 23.3 1.2 4.4 16.4 2.9 1.7 5.1 5.8 2.7 8.8 11 15 3.9 10.5 -0.8 4.4 0.3 0.7 -0.8 17.3 -0.9

103.9 2.6 7.6 2 96.3 2.7 8.1 7.2 23.3 0.9 4.5 16.3 3 1.8 4.8 5.8 2.8 9.1 13 15.1 3.7 10.7 0.7 4.4 -0.4 0.7 -0.7 17.3 -0.8

104.6 2.7 7.7 1.9 96.9 2.8 8.3 8.5 23.4 1.1 4.5 16.4 3 1.8 3.8 5.9 2.9 9.3 12.6 15.2 3.3 10.8 2.7 4.4 -0.4 0.7 -1.2 17.1 -1.6

105.2 2.8 7.7 2 97.5 2.8 8.5 10 23.6 1.4 4.6 16.5 3.1 1.8 2.9 5.9 2.8 9.4 10.1 15.2 2.8 10.9 4.3 4.4 -0.5 0.7 -1.6 17.1 -1.9

106.2 3 7.8 2.1 98.4 3.1 8.8 10.8 23.8 2.3 4.6 16.7 3.1 1.8 1.8 6 3 9.5 7.8 15.3 2.3 11.1 4.9 4.4 -1.1 0.7 -1.6 17.2 -0.8

8585.8 340 2.8 141.4 3.1 11.7 673 650 22

8523.9 342.1 2.7 142.1 2.8 12.3 683 671 12

8526.4 344.1 2.6 142.7 2.1 12.9 952 940 12

8578 346.1 2.4 143.2 1.5 13.2 1427 1405 22

8687.3 347.9 2.3 143.7 1.6 13.3 2055 2021 35

8796.4 349.6 2.2 144.1 1.4 13.3 2955 2863 92

8888.1 351.3 2.1 144.6 1.3 13.3 3774 3671 103

8988.4 352.8 2 144.9 1.2 13.2 4527 4421 106

9083.8 354.3 1.8 145.3 1.1 12.7 5170 5058 112

9185.7 355.7 1.7 145.7 1.1 12.3 5670 5554 116

9299.5 357 1.6 146.1 1.1 12 6064 5929 136

9402.2 358.7 1.7 146.6 1.1 11.7 6455 6298 157

9490.4 360.4 1.7 147.1 1.2 11.5 6709 6530 178

9610.4 362.1 1.8 147.7 1.3 11.1 7065 6879 186

*Quarterly at an annual rate

62

10.2 3.7 3.6 6.7 8.4 3.2 29.4 24.3 35.2 2.6

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

Oca l a

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

March 2009 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

6.3 2.2 2.4 3.9 6.1 0.8 23.1 22.3 28.1 4.4

6.7 6.9 2.7 4.1 6.4 4.8 24 22.7 29.7 5.9

7.5 10.9 2.9 4.6 6.9 8.1 25.6 23.7 30.5 2.6

8.3 11.5 3.2 5.1 7.5 8.3 27.5 24.6 31.8 4.2

9.2 10.6 3.5 5.7 8 7.7 29.2 25.5 33.4 5.2

9.5 3.7 3.6 6 8.1 1.1 29.4 25 33.5 0.3

9.8 2.9 3.5 6.3 8.1 -0.4 29.4 24.2 33.7 0.5

10 2.1 3.5 6.5 8.3 3 29.2 24.3 34.7 3.1

10.4 3.8 3.6 6.8 8.5 2.4 29.7 24.3 35.5 2.1

10.9 5.2 3.8 7.2 8.8 3.4 30.7 24.7 36.1 1.7

11.6 6.1 3.9 7.7 9.2 4.3 32 25.3 36.6 1.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

86.1 0.4 9.3 -5.5 76.8 1.2 6.4 4.9 20.5 -0.7 3.1 14.8 2.6 2.3 -4.5 4 1.1 7.2 0.5 9.7 5.3 7.6 0.3 3.6 3.6 0.7 2.3 14.7 0.7

89 3.4 9.2 -1 79.8 3.9 7.6 17.5 20.9 2 3.3 15.1 2.5 2.2 -5.1 4.3 9.2 7.6 4.9 10.5 8.5 7.7 0.9 3.6 -1.6 0.7 -2.3 14.7 0.4

95 6.7 9.6 4.1 85.4 7 9 18.7 21.7 3.7 3.7 15.6 2.5 2.2 1.2 4.9 12.5 8.2 7.5 11.1 6 8.7 13.1 3.8 7.7 0.7 0 15.1 2.4

100.6 5.9 10 3.6 90.7 6.2 9.8 9.7 22.9 5.6 3.9 16.3 2.7 2.2 -2.3 5.4 11.1 8.9 9.5 12 7.6 9.2 6.3 4 5.2 0.7 0.1 15.4 2.3

105.2 4.5 9.9 -0.7 95.3 5.1 11.7 18.6 23.3 1.9 4.2 16.4 2.7 2.1 -2 5.7 6 9.3 4.1 12.7 5.7 9.7 4.8 4.1 1.8 0.7 0 16 3.5

105.9 0.6 9.5 -3.4 96.3 1.1 10.9 -7 23.8 1.9 4.4 16.5 2.9 2 -7.5 5.9 1.9 8.7 -7.1 13.1 3.5 10.5 8.5 4.3 5.9 0.7 0.1 16.6 3.7

104.1 -1.7 9 -6.1 95.1 -1.3 9.6 -11.4 23.4 -1.5 4.4 16 3 1.8 -5.5 5.8 -0.7 8.4 -3.5 13.5 2.5 10.6 0.9 4.5 2.3 0.7 0 16.9 1.9

100.2 -3.7 7.9 -12.3 92.4 -2.9 8 -16.5 22.5 -3.9 4.3 15.8 2.8 1.7 -7.5 5.6 -4.1 8 -4.1 13.9 3.6 10.4 -1.5 4.4 -2.1 0.7 -3.5 17.1 1.5

101 0.8 7.5 -4.9 93.6 1.3 7.6 -4.9 23 2.2 4.3 16.5 2.8 1.7 -1.8 5.7 1.5 8 0 14.5 3.8 10.6 1.5 4.4 0.9 0.7 0 17.4 1.8

103.5 2.4 7.6 2 95.9 2.5 8 5.2 23.3 1.3 4.4 16.4 2.9 1.7 4.3 5.8 2.8 8.9 11.5 15 3.8 10.6 0.5 4.4 0 0.7 -1 17.3 -0.8

106.7 3.1 7.8 2 98.9 3.1 8.9 10.4 23.9 2.6 4.6 16.8 3.1 1.8 2 6 2.9 9.6 7.3 15.3 2.2 11.1 4.5 4.4 -0.9 0.7 -1.4 17.3 -0.2

6383.5 272.1 2.6 111.7 2.2 5.9 5741 5258 484

6828.5 280.4 3 114.3 2.3 5.4 6723 5985 738

7431.9 291 3.8 119.2 4.3 4.6 5087 4998 88

8131.5 302.8 4.1 124.3 4.2 3.9 7169 6614 555

8562.5 314.8 4 130.8 5.3 3.6 7218 6862 357

8589.7 325 3.3 135.3 3.5 4.6 3109 2795 314

8601.4 334.3 2.9 139 2.7 7.6 1278 1259 19

8553.5 343.1 2.6 142.3 2.4 12.5 934 917 17

8840 350.4 2.1 144.3 1.4 13.3 3328 3244 84

9242.8 356.4 1.7 145.9 1.1 12.2 5840 5709 130

9669.3 363.1 1.9 148 1.4 11 7144 6940 204

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

63

O r l a n d o – K i s s immee

P r o fi l e s The Orlando–Kissimmee MSA is comprised of Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole counties. Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World and numerous other Disney enterprises, Universal Studios, and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic, the Orlando Predators arena football team, and Atlanta Braves spring training at Disney’s Wide World of Sports. The University of Central Florida, the nation’s seventh-largest university, and many other places of higher education also reside in the MSA. Quick Facts: • MSA population estimate of 2,032,496 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Lake County population estimate of 301,059 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Orange County population estimate of 1,066,113 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Osceola County population estimate of 255,815 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Seminole County population estimate of 409,509 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force for the MSA of 1,096,524 in January 2008 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 4.3% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 46,649 unemployed people in the Orlando MSA. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Walt Disney Co. – 59,500 employees • Orange County Public Schools – 24,063 employees • Florida Hospital (Adventist Health System) – 16,002 employees • Publix Super Markets Inc. – 15,606 employees • Universal Orlando – 13,000 employees

• Orlando Regional Healthcare System – 10,000 employees • University of Central Florida – 8,946 employees • Lockheed Martin Corporation – 7,200 employees • Seminole County Public Schools – 7,000 employees • Marriott International Inc. – 6,312 employees Sources: Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission & Orange County Library System

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s The Orlando–Kissimmee area is expected to show modest growth in the next few years. Personal income and average annual wage growth are expected to be some of the highest in the state, growing at rates of 4.1 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively. Employment growth is forecasted to average 1.5 percent annually, the highest in the state. Per capita income and average annual wage levels are expected to be 29.7 and 43.0, respectively. Gross metro product is expected to be one of the highest in the state, averaging 89519.2.

In the Orlando area, the top sectors are expected to be professional and business services, and education and health services. They will average annual growth rates of 5.7 and 3.5 percent, respectively. Unemployment is expected to average 9.5 percent each year.

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Foundation is laid for downtown Orlando’s longterm growth • Downtown Orlando developers have been seeing a slump in growth and demand due to the economy and challenging credit markets.

• However, certain achievements in 2008 will help the downtown market continue to thrive. Among these are: a brand-new, nearly 30,000 square-foot Publix Super Market on Lake Eola, three big venue projects planned by city and county officials, and city money to assist the completion of a movie multiplex inside the mixed-use Plaza complex.

Source: Orlando Sentinel, January 12, 2009

64

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

O r l a n d o – K i s s immee

OUC approves rate increase, hears an earful • Orlando Utilities Commission raised the electric rate 13.7 percent, a tough decision because of the economic struggles faced by the utility company and customers.

• The company also cited increased cost for coal, power-plant operations, a drop in revenue, and stricter environmental rules. Expenses have been cut and have led to delays in projects and a hiring freeze.

• Progress Energy had raised its rates by 25 percent, and FPL has only had to raise its rates by 1.4 percent due to the drop in the price for natural gas, used heavily by FPL.

Orlando airport traffic drops 11.3 percent • Orlando International Airport announced its January passenger traffic is down 11.3 percent despite international traffic increasing.

• 2.69 million passengers came through the airport in January. This number consists of 2.44 million domestic, and 245,593 international passengers.

• Domestic traffic was down 13 percent from the same time last year, due to the recession.

• International traffic increased by 11 percent in part from the new service to Bogota, Columbia by JetBlue.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, March 9, 2009

Source: Orlando Sentinel, January 28, 2009

Full Sail to unveil Gateway project • The design for Full Sail Studios Gateway project was unveiled on February 24th.

• The 32,000 square-foot, 2.2 acre project includes a live performance venue, a two-story complex for game production and recording studios, an expansion to the on-campus professional film studio backlot, and an outdoor plaza courtyard.

• Orlando-based MRI Architectural Group and LAMM & Co. Partners will be working on the project.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, February 23, 2009

Work starts on Nemours Children’s Hospital • Work has begun on Nemours Children’s Hospital in Lake Nona’s medical city. The 620,000 squarefoot, 60-acre pediatric facility will cost $400 million and will hold 95 beds.

• It will feature a children’s clinic, emergency department, diagnostic and ambulatory programs, and education and research centers.

• Nemours currently employs more than 4,400 people, including 430 pediatric physicians, specialists, and surgeons who saw approximately 250,000 children in 2007.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, February 25, 2009 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

65

O r l a n d o – K i s s immee Orlando - Kissimee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

10.0%

1.4

1.6

Orlando Real Gross Metro Product 100000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

90000.0

50000.0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate

40000.0

Orlando Payroll Employment (Thousands)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Real Gross Metro Product

Orlando Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

8.0%

1100.0

6.0%

1000.0

4.0%

900.0

2.0% 0.0%

800.0

66

1.2

60000.0

4.0%

700.0

1

70000.0

6.0%

1200.0

0.8

80000.0

8.0%

2.0%

0.6

-2.0% 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 OrlandoPayroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

-4.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Real Personal Income

O r l a n d o – K i s s immee

Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

March 2009 Forecast

2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

71.5 1 44.3 27.2 59.3 0.7 34.5 28.6 41.3 3

72.3 0.5 44.3 27.9 60.1 1.7 34.8 29 41.7 3.5

72.4 0.7 44.5 28 60.2 3 34.8 28.9 41.9 3.2

72.8 1.5 44.7 28.1 60.4 2.2 34.9 28.9 42.2 2.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1068.2 -3.2 39.9 -5.7 1028.3 -3.1 66.7 -12.2 193.4 -5.4 47.6 117.2 30.2 26.2 -2.9 66.4 -1.5 188.9 -6.1 118.7 4.9 191 -2 58.5 0.2 11.7 -0.2 106.8 -0.1

1059.7 -4 38.7 -7.6 1021 -3.9 64.4 -14.8 191.8 -5.6 47.2 116.6 29.9 25.7 -4.1 65.4 -3.5 185.7 -6.7 120.1 4.2 191.2 -2.7 57.8 -2.2 11.7 -1.5 107.1 0.2

1056.5 -3.9 37.7 -9.3 1018.8 -3.6 61.6 -14.9 192 -4.6 47.2 117.5 29.4 25.3 -5.6 64.5 -5.3 185.3 -5.9 120.8 3.4 191.3 -2.9 58.7 -1.1 11.7 -1.1 107.6 0.8

84251.7 83520.7 83514.3 2071.7 2076.6 2081.4 1.2 1.1 1 1133.1 1136.6 1140.1 2 2.1 1.3 9.2 9.5 10 4575 4118 5082 2468 2484 3647 2108 1634 1435

1055.7 -2.9 37 -10.6 1018.8 -2.6 60.7 -14.9 193.1 -1.7 47.4 119.1 29.2 24.9 -7.2 64.7 -4.2 182.8 -5.8 121.7 3.1 192.5 -0.5 59.3 -0.6 11.7 0 107.3 0.7

73.4 2.8 45.1 28.3 60.6 2.3 35.1 29 42.3 2.5

74.4 2.9 45.7 28.7 61.1 1.6 35.4 29.1 42.5 2.1

75.3 3.9 46.2 29.1 61.5 2.2 35.8 29.2 42.8 2

76.2 4.7 46.8 29.4 62 2.8 36.1 29.4 43 1.9

77.4 5.4 47.6 29.8 62.7 3.4 36.5 29.6 43.2 2.1

78.5 5.6 48.3 30.2 63.4 3.7 36.9 29.8 43.4 2

79.7 5.9 49 30.7 64.1 4.2 37.4 30 43.5 1.7

80.8 6 49.7 31.1 64.7 4.3 37.7 30.2 43.6 1.5

81.9 5.9 50.4 31.5 65.4 4.2 38.1 30.4 43.8 1.4

83.3 6.1 51.1 32.2 66.2 4.4 38.6 30.6 44 1.4

1061.7 -0.6 36.6 -8.3 1025.2 -0.3 60.4 -9.4 194.4 0.5 47.7 121 29.3 24.6 -5.9 65.2 -1.9 184.8 -2.2 122.4 3.1 193.3 1.2 59.1 1 12.2 4.3 108.7 1.8

1070.2 1 36.3 -6.1 1033.9 1.3 59.2 -8.1 195.6 2 48 122.9 29.5 24.5 -4.7 65.9 0.7 189.9 2.3 123.8 3.1 194 1.4 59.3 2.5 12.3 5.2 109.4 2.2

1076.8 1.9 36.8 -2.4 1040.1 2.1 58.7 -4.7 196.3 2.3 48 123.6 29.5 24.7 -2.5 66.4 2.8 194.1 4.7 125.3 3.7 193.7 1.2 59.7 1.7 11.9 1.6 109.4 1.8

1086 2.9 37.1 0.2 1048.9 3 59.4 -2.2 196.9 2 48.1 123.7 29.5 24.9 0.1 66.9 3.5 201.1 10 126.9 4.2 192.4 -0.1 59.8 0.9 11.7 0 109 1.5

1097.1 3.3 37.3 2 1059.8 3.4 60 -0.7 197.6 1.7 48.7 123.3 29.9 25.2 2.3 67.4 3.4 209.7 13.5 127.7 4.4 191.4 -1 59.8 1.2 11.7 -3.9 109.3 0.5

1109.4 3.7 37.5 3.3 1071.9 3.7 61 3.1 197.8 1.1 49.2 122.3 30.4 25.5 4.1 67.9 3 218.5 15 129 4.2 191.7 -1.2 59.9 1 11.7 -4.9 108.8 -0.5

1123.8 4.4 37.7 2.6 1086.1 4.4 62.2 5.8 198.4 1.1 49.8 121.6 30.9 25.7 4 68.5 3.3 227 16.9 130.3 4 193.7 0 59.8 0.2 11.7 -1.6 108.9 -0.5

1135.9 4.6 38 2.6 1097.9 4.7 63.4 6.8 199.5 1.3 50.5 121.8 31.5 25.7 3.3 69.2 3.4 233.5 16.1 131.4 3.6 195.9 1.8 59.9 0.2 11.7 -0.5 107.7 -1.2

1147 4.5 38.3 2.7 1108.7 4.6 65 8.3 201 1.7 51 122.7 32 25.8 2.4 69.8 3.6 237.8 13.4 132.1 3.4 198 3.5 59.8 0 11.7 -0.4 107.8 -1.4

1158.4 4.4 38.6 2.9 1119.8 4.5 66.6 9.1 202.9 2.6 51.5 124 32.4 25.9 1.5 70.5 3.8 241.8 10.7 132.7 2.8 199.8 4.2 59.6 -0.5 11.6 -0.4 108.4 -0.4

83977 85089.7 86262.9 87154.4 88270.6 89446.8 90667.2 92044.3 93257.2 94316.7 95571.5 2086.5 2092.2 2098.1 2104 2110.4 2117.6 2125.1 2133 2141.3 2150.2 2159.6 0.9 1 1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1143.5 1147.3 1151.1 1154.9 1159.1 1164.1 1169.2 1174.5 1180 1185.4 1190.9 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.2 9.7 9.4 9.2 8.9 8.7 8.4 7280 9920 15233 18921 21978 24869 27185 29548 31965 34022 35958 5651 8116 11607 15103 18284 20978 23195 24908 26572 27834 29360 1629 1804 3626 3818 3694 3891 3990 4639 5393 6189 6598

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

67

O r l a n d o – K i s s immee

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

March 2009 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

48.3 4.3 30.6 17.7 46.7 2.8 27.4 26.5 33.5 4

51.1 5.8 32.5 18.7 48.4 3.7 28.2 26.7 34.8 3.7

56 9.6 35.6 20.4 51.7 6.8 29.9 27.6 36.2 4.2

61.6 9.9 39.2 22.3 55.2 6.8 31.7 28.4 37.7 4.2

66.5 8.1 42.2 24.4 58 5.2 33.3 29.1 39 3.4

69.6 4.6 44 25.6 59.1 1.9 34.3 29.1 39.9 2.2

71.6 2.8 44.6 26.9 58.9 -0.5 34.8 28.6 40.5 1.6

72.2 0.9 44.4 27.8 60 1.9 34.7 28.9 41.8 3.1

74.8 3.6 46 28.9 61.3 2.2 35.6 29.2 42.6 2.1

79.1 5.7 48.6 30.5 63.7 3.9 37.1 29.9 43.4 1.8

84.1 6.3 51.5 32.6 66.6 4.6 38.8 30.8 44.1 1.6

1076 3.9 43.5 -1.9 1032.5 4.1 86.6 8.5 198.8 3.1 46.2 122.3 30.3 25.8 4.5 67 5.2 192.4 4.3 107.5 5.2 186.9 1.8 53.4 7.1 11.4 -3.5 102.7 4.1

1098.8 2.1 42.9 -1.4 1056 2.3 80.6 -6.9 202.7 2 47.2 123.3 32.2 26.9 4.2 67.6 0.9 198.9 3.4 111.4 3.7 192.3 2.9 57.6 7.8 11.4 0.3 106.5 3.6

1098.3 0 41.8 -2.6 1056.6 0.1 73.9 -8.4 201.3 -0.7 48 121.3 32 26.9 -0.3 67.7 0.1 197.8 -0.6 115.8 4 195.5 1.7 59.1 2.7 11.8 3 106.8 0.3

1060 -3.5 38.3 -8.3 1021.7 -3.3 63.4 -14.2 192.6 -4.3 47.4 117.6 29.7 25.5 -4.9 65.3 -3.6 185.7 -6.1 120.3 3.9 191.5 -2 58.6 -0.9 11.7 -0.7 107.2 0.4

1073.7 1.3 36.7 -4.3 1037 1.5 59.4 -6.2 195.8 1.7 48 122.8 29.4 24.7 -3.3 66.1 1.3 192.5 3.7 124.6 3.5 193.3 0.9 59.5 1.5 12 2.8 109.2 1.8

1116.5 4 37.6 2.6 1078.9 4 61.7 3.7 198.3 1.3 49.5 122.2 30.7 25.5 3.4 68.3 3.3 222.2 15.4 129.6 4 193.2 -0.1 59.8 0.6 11.7 -2.8 108.7 -0.4

1164.5 4.3 38.7 2.8 1125.8 4.3 67.1 8.8 203.9 2.8 51.8 124.6 32.7 25.9 1.6 70.7 3.6 244.2 9.9 133 2.7 200.7 3.9 59.6 -0.3 11.7 -0.3 108.9 0.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

68

908.2 -0.8 44.4 -7.7 863.8 -0.5 56.8 2 171.6 -3.7 39.6 104.8 27.3 22.5 -2 54.7 1 157.8 -2 89.4 2.7 165 -3.3 45.4 6.9 10.4 1.2 90.2 5.8

929.2 2.3 42.2 -5 887 2.7 61.4 8 173.4 1 40 107.4 25.9 23.1 2.5 57.4 4.8 158.9 0.7 93.6 4.7 169.9 3 45.7 0.7 11.1 7 92.6 2.6

978.8 5.3 43.1 2.3 935.7 5.5 69.6 13.4 181.7 4.8 42 113.5 26.2 23.8 3 59.5 3.7 170.2 7.2 97.3 4 179.4 5.6 47.5 4 11.2 1.2 95.4 3

1035.9 5.8 44.3 2.7 991.6 6 79.8 14.7 192.8 6.1 44.7 120.1 28 24.7 3.9 63.7 7.1 184.4 8.3 102.2 5 183.6 2.4 49.9 4.9 11.8 5.2 98.7 3.5

66573.2 70640.6 75048.3 81631.8 85393.2 1761.6 1810.7 1874 1942.9 1996.6 2.8 2.8 3.5 3.7 2.8 918 934 966.1 1006.5 1049.6 0.9 1.7 3.4 4.2 4.3 5.6 5.1 4.4 3.6 3.2 25182 27607 32400 33906 30304 17509 22318 26196 26872 24310 7673 5289 6204 7034 5994

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

86721 87782.2 83815.9 86694.4 91353.9 96212.5 2029.7 2057.1 2079.1 2101.2 2129.2 2164.9 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.7 1094 1119.9 1138.3 1153.1 1171.9 1193.9 4.2 2.4 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.9 3.8 5.8 9.8 10.3 9.3 8.4 17991 10577 5264 16513 28392 36643 12531 5755 3562 13277 23913 29626 5460 4822 1701 3236 4479 7017

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s v i l l e

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is comprised of Brevard County only. Typically known as “Florida’s Space Coast,” this area is home to the Kennedy Space Center. Located in the central part of Florida’s east coast, the region is home to Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, Patrick Air Force Base, and government contractors such as Harris Corporation. Like much of Florida, this area is growing fast; Port Canaveral is now a leading cruise-ship port.

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is expected to achieve modest growth in the economic indicators.

Personal income is expected to grow on average 3.6 percent each year. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.1 percent. Per capita income levels should average 30.9, while average annual wage levels should average 46.0.

Employment growth is forecasted to increase on average 0.3 percent each year. Housing starts are expected to grow 73.7 percent annually on average.

Education and health services is expected to be the top sector in the area, averaging 2.3 percent growth annually.

Professional and business services follow that sector, with an average growth of 2.3 percent. Unemployment in the area should average 10.3 percent, one of the highest in the state.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 536,161 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 259,913 in January 2008 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 5.1% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 13,163 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Harris Corporation – 6,420 employees • United Space Alliance – 6,380 employees • Health First, Inc. – 6,220 employees • Wuesthoff Health Systems – 2,460 employees • Northrop Grumman Corporation – 2,000 employees • Space Gateway Support – 1,800 employees • Parrish Medical Center – 1,250 employees • Rockwell Collins, Inc. – 1,250 employees • Sea Ray Boats, Inc. – 1,150 employees • Mercedes Homes – 1,030 employees Source: Economic Development Commission of Florida’s Space Coast

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s State fills nursing home gap • A $73-million cut to nursing home reimbursement was avoided by the state legislature.

• A new plan was formed that would allow nursing homes to tax themselves at an average rate of 5.3 percent of their revenues. The money would draw in millions of dollars in federal aid.

• This plan is used in 32 other states and the industry will lose $20 million, but will eventually be able to offset steep cuts to financial aid. 79,000 Floridians are in nursing homes.

Source: Florida Today, January 11, 2009 Port Authority studies dockside gambling • After the decline in passengers and profits over the past two years for casino ships, the Canaveral Port Authority created a commission to study dockside gambling.

• The decline in passenger count has been at 41 percent, blamed on the economy and competition from Seminole casinos.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

69

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s v i l l e

• If dockside gambling was allowed, more than 500 full- and part-time jobs would be created at the port and would lure in more business.

Source: Florida Today, January 22, 2009 Teachers’ contract includes pay freezes • No pay raises or step increases will be given to Brevard’s 5,000 teachers, according to their contract for the next two years. Comparatively, other districts are cutting jobs and reducing salaries.

• The work day has been reduced by a half-hour, and non-student planning days have been cut to 4 hours, among other provisions in the contract.

• Brevard schools lost $101.4 million in state aid, and could lose $60-$70 million next school year.

Source: Florida Today, January 27, 2009 Harris gets Heath First contract • Health First in Rockledge awarded Melbourne’s Harris Corp. with a 10-year contract.

• The contract, value undisclosed, is for software and hardware support, a network operations center, a help desk, training, and network security services.

• The hospitals with Heath First include Cape Canaveral Hospital in Cocoa Beach, Holmes RMC in Melbourne, and Palm Bay Hospital in Palm Bay. Source: Orlando Business Journal, February 12, 2009

70

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

Retiring shuttle may doom 32,200 Space Coast jobs • The Space Coast’s economy could be devastated with the retiring of NASA’s fleet in 2010. Eight more scheduled missions remain from now until retirement.

• NASA estimated 3,500 jobs will be lost at the Kennedy Space Center, with the number possibly going as high as 10,000.

• The impact on the surrounding community could be severe. Best-case scenario would put other job losses at 9,870, up to the worst-case number of 28,200.

• Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL) has been able to do little to prevent this economic disaster.

Source: Orlando Sentinel, March 11, 2009

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s v i l l e Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.5

1

1.5

(percent)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 FL Unemployment Rate Palm Bay Unemployment Rate

19000.0 18000.0 17000.0 16000.0 15000.0 14000.0 13000.0 12000.0 11000.0

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Payroll Employment 220.0

(Thousands)

210.0 200.0 190.0 180.0 170.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Palm Bay Payroll Employment

2.5

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

2

(Millions 2000 $)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Real Gross Metro Product

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Personal Income 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

71

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

March 2009 Forecast

2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

19.3 1 9.1 10.1 16 0.8 35.7 29.6 44.1 2.8

19.5 0.7 9.1 10.4 16.2 1.8 36.2 30.1 44.6 3.5

19.6 1.1 9.1 10.4 16.3 3.4 36.3 30.1 44.8 3.2

19.6 1.9 9.1 10.5 16.3 2.5 36.4 30.2 45.1 3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

203.7 -3.9 21 -9.9 182.7 -3.1 11.9 -16.5 34.6 -5.3 5.6 26.8 2.6 2.6 -8 8.4 -2.6 36.3 -3 29.9 2.1 21.7 -0.5 8.1 -0.9 6.2 -1.4 23 -1.4

201.8 -4.4 20.4 -11.3 181.4 -3.6 11.5 -16.8 34.4 -5.3 5.5 26.6 2.6 2.6 -8 8.3 -4.9 35.6 -5.1 30.2 2.7 21.7 -1.6 8 -1.8 6.1 -1.4 23 -0.6

199.5 -3.8 19.4 -12 180.1 -2.9 10.9 -16.3 34.7 -1.6 5.6 27.1 2.5 2.5 -7.5 8.2 -3 34.3 -6.7 30.5 1.9 21.7 -0.4 8.2 0 6.1 0.1 22.9 -0.7

20 2.5 9.3 10.7 16.4 1.2 37 30.4 45.5 2.1

20.2 3.4 9.3 10.9 16.5 1.7 37.4 30.6 45.7 1.9

20.4 4.1 9.4 11 16.6 2.2 37.7 30.7 45.9 1.8

20.7 4.7 9.5 11.2 16.8 2.7 38.1 30.9 46.1 1.9

20.9 4.6 9.6 11.3 16.9 2.8 38.5 31.1 46.3 1.8

21.2 4.8 9.8 11.4 17 3.1 38.9 31.3 46.4 1.6

21.4 4.9 9.9 11.6 17.2 3.2 39.2 31.4 46.6 1.5

21.7 4.8 9.9 11.8 17.3 3.2 39.6 31.6 46.8 1.3

22 5.2 10.1 12 17.5 3.5 40.1 31.9 46.9 1.4

199.8 -1.9 19.2 -8.5 180.6 -1.2 10.9 -8.6 34.9 0.7 5.6 27.4 2.6 2.5 -4.8 8.3 -1.8 34.2 -6 30.6 2.3 21.8 0.6 8.1 0.6 6.2 0.8 23.1 0.8

200.6 -0.6 19.1 -6 181.5 0 10.7 -6.8 35.1 2 5.6 27.8 2.6 2.5 -3.7 8.3 0.5 34.6 -2.9 31 2.4 21.8 0.7 8.1 1 6.1 0.1 23.2 1.2

201.4 0.5 19.3 -2.5 182.1 0.8 10.7 -3.6 35.1 2 5.7 27.9 2.6 2.5 -1.6 8.4 2.1 35 -0.6 31.2 3 21.8 0.5 8.1 -0.3 6.1 -0.3 23.2 1

202.4 1.5 19.5 0.1 183 1.6 10.8 -1.3 35.2 1.5 5.7 27.8 2.6 2.5 1.1 8.4 2.3 35.7 4.1 31.5 3.4 21.6 -0.8 8.1 -1.2 6.1 -1 23.1 0.8

203.8 2 19.6 1.8 184.2 2 10.9 0.4 35.2 1 5.7 27.7 2.6 2.5 3.2 8.4 2.2 36.8 7.6 31.6 3.3 21.4 -1.6 8 -1.3 6.1 -2.1 23.1 -0.2

205.3 2.3 19.7 3.1 185.6 2.3 11.1 4 35.1 0.2 5.8 27.4 2.7 2.6 4.9 8.5 2 37.8 9.3 31.9 3 21.5 -1.6 8 -1.5 6.1 -1.6 23 -1.2

207 2.8 19.9 2.9 187.2 2.8 11.4 6.7 35.1 -0.2 5.9 27.2 2.7 2.6 4.8 8.5 2.2 38.8 11 32.1 2.8 21.7 -0.3 8 -1.9 6 -1.2 23 -1.1

208.5 3 20.1 3.2 188.4 3 11.7 8.1 35.2 -0.1 6 27.2 2.8 2.6 3.8 8.6 2.4 39.5 10.7 32.3 2.5 21.9 1.5 7.9 -1.9 6 -1.1 22.7 -1.7

209.5 2.8 20.3 3.6 189.3 2.8 12 9.5 35.3 0.2 6 27.3 2.8 2.6 2.9 8.6 2.3 39.9 8.5 32.2 2 22.1 2.9 7.9 -1.8 6 -1.2 22.7 -1.8

211.1 2.8 20.5 3.7 190.6 2.7 12.3 10.3 35.6 1.2 6.1 27.6 2.8 2.6 1.9 8.7 2.4 40.2 6.4 32.4 1.5 22.2 3.5 7.8 -2.2 6 -1.1 22.8 -0.9

16391.8 16234.4 16195.9 16239.5 16378.3 16539.4 16681.1 16845.5 17005.1 17181.1 17379.3 17553.7 17690.3 17882.6 539.3 539.3 539.3 539.5 540 540.5 541.1 541.9 542.8 543.9 545.1 546.5 547.8 549.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 267.9 268.3 268.7 269 269.4 269.8 270.2 270.6 271.1 271.5 272 272.6 273.2 274 1.5 1.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 9.9 10.4 10.9 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.1 10.7 10.3 10.1 9.8 9.6 9.3 1401 1287 1622 2264 3118 4648 5784 6768 7633 8303 8902 9557 10034 10565 450 450 844 1455 2274 3421 4513 5520 6366 7024 7526 8036 8347 8798 950 837 778 809 844 1226 1271 1248 1267 1279 1376 1521 1687 1768

*Quarterly at an annual rate

72

200.5 -4.4 19.8 -11.3 180.7 -3.6 11.1 -17.9 34.5 -4.3 5.5 26.8 2.5 2.5 -7.4 8.2 -5 35.2 -6.2 30.3 2.4 21.6 -1.5 8.1 -0.6 6.1 -0.1 23 -0.3

19.8 2.7 9.2 10.6 16.3 2.2 36.6 30.2 45.3 2.6

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

March 2009 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

13.9 3.9 6.9 7 13.4 2.5 28 27 35.2 3.4

14.6 5.3 7.4 7.2 13.8 3.2 28.9 27.4 36.9 4.7

15.8 8.2 8.1 7.7 14.6 5.4 30.5 28.2 38.7 4.7

16.9 7.4 8.7 8.2 15.2 4.3 32.2 28.9 40.4 4.4

18.3 7.8 9.2 9.1 15.9 4.9 34.4 30 42 4.1

18.8 3.1 9.3 9.5 16 0.5 35.2 29.9 43.2 2.7

19.3 2.2 9.2 10 15.8 -1.1 35.8 29.5 43.3 0.3

19.5 1.2 9.1 10.4 16.2 2.1 36.1 30 44.7 3.1

20.1 3.2 9.3 10.8 16.5 1.8 37.2 30.5 45.6 2.1

21.1 4.7 9.7 11.4 17 3 38.7 31.2 46.4 1.7

22.2 5.4 10.1 12.1 17.6 3.7 40.4 32 47.1 1.5

216.1 1.7 24.6 2.7 191.6 1.6 18.1 5 37.4 1 5.5 28.3 3.6 2.9 0.1 8.6 2.4 38.4 -1 28.2 3.1 21.2 3.5 8.1 -0.7 6.2 1.7 22.6 1.7

212.4 -1.7 23.8 -3.3 188.6 -1.5 15.2 -15.8 36.8 -1.6 5.6 28 3.3 2.8 -3.2 8.7 0.8 37.5 -2.3 28.7 2 21.6 1.6 8.2 1.1 6.2 0.2 23 1.7

210 -1.1 22.7 -4.6 187.3 -0.7 13.7 -10.3 36 -2.2 5.6 27.5 2.9 2.8 -2.9 8.6 -0.6 37.3 -0.3 29.6 3 21.9 1.6 8.2 0.1 6.2 0.2 23.1 0.6

201.4 -4.1 20.2 -11.1 181.2 -3.3 11.3 -16.9 34.5 -4.2 5.6 26.8 2.6 2.5 -7.7 8.3 -3.9 35.4 -5.3 30.2 2.3 21.7 -1 8.1 -0.8 6.1 -0.7 23 -0.8

201 -0.2 19.3 -4.3 181.8 0.3 10.8 -5.1 35.1 1.6 5.6 27.7 2.6 2.5 -2.2 8.3 0.7 34.9 -1.4 31.1 2.8 21.7 0.3 8.1 0 6.1 -0.1 23.2 0.9

206.1 2.5 19.8 2.7 186.3 2.5 11.3 4.8 35.1 0.2 5.9 27.4 2.7 2.6 4.2 8.5 2.2 38.2 9.7 32 2.9 21.6 -0.5 8 -1.7 6 -1.5 22.9 -1

211.8 2.8 20.5 3.5 191.3 2.7 12.4 9.9 35.7 1.6 6.1 27.7 2.8 2.6 2 8.7 2.3 40.5 6 32.4 1.3 22.3 3.1 7.8 -2.1 6 -0.9 22.8 -0.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

192.5 -0.4 22.9 -3.9 169.6 0.1 12.7 -3.1 34.8 -0.1 4.8 26.6 3.3 2.8 -10.8 7.3 3.4 33.4 -2.2 25.3 3.5 18.6 0.1 7.6 1 5.7 -1.8 21.6 2.9

196.6 2.1 22.8 -0.5 173.8 2.5 13 2.3 34.2 -1.6 4.6 26.3 3.3 2.8 0 7.3 0.7 34.7 4.1 26.7 5.7 18.9 1.8 8.2 8.4 5.7 1.2 22.1 2.6

205.3 4.4 23.6 3.8 181.7 4.5 14.8 13.6 35.5 3.7 4.7 27.2 3.6 2.8 -0.9 7.8 5.8 37.1 6.8 26.8 0.3 19.8 4.7 8.4 1.6 5.9 3.9 22.9 3.3

212.5 3.5 23.9 1.2 188.5 3.8 17.2 16.2 37.1 4.5 5.2 28 3.8 2.9 6 8.4 7.8 38.7 4.5 27.3 1.8 20.5 3.5 8.1 -2.8 6.1 1.8 22.2 -2.8

13410.4 14084.9 15004.7 16130.8 16619.1 16362.9 495.2 504.6 516.7 526.1 531.2 534.9 1.7 1.9 2.4 1.8 1 0.7 238.2 242 248.3 253.6 259.3 262 1.1 1.6 2.6 2.1 2.3 1 5.7 5.2 4.4 3.7 3.4 4.4 6591 6115 8212 8487 5346 2808 5091 5578 6313 7206 4370 2204 1500 537 1899 1281 977 604

16389 16265.4 16611.1 17279.8 17977.2 537.9 539.3 540.9 544.6 550.1 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.7 1 266.4 268.5 270 271.8 274.4 1.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 1 6.5 10.6 11.2 10.2 9.2 1790 1643 5079 8599 10711 1299 800 3932 7238 8859 491 844 1147 1361 1851

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

73

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is comprised of Escambia County and Santa Rosa County. Located in the northwest corner of the state bordering Alabama, this region is home to the Pensacola Naval Air Station, Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval Aviation. This area has been referred to as the “Cradle of Naval Aviation.”

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is expected to achieve relatively low growth in the economic indicators relative to other metro areas. Personal income is expected to grow 3.0 percent each year on average, while average annual wage rate growth rates should be about 1.8 percent, some of the lowest growth rates in the state. Employment growth is expected to increase slightly, averaging 0.1 percent each year. Housing starts are expected to grow 74.7 percent each year.

At 2.5 percent average annual growth, professional and business services will be the top sector in Pensacola.

Following that sector is education and health services, growing on average 1.8 percent each year. Unemployment is expected to average 9.0 percent annually.

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 453,451 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Escambia County population estimate of 306,407 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Santa Rosa County population estimate of 147,044 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 208,802 in January 2008 for the MSA (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 4.2% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 8,857 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Local Government – 15,790 employees • Federal Government – 7,403 employees • State Government – 5,970 employees • Sacred Heart Health System – 3,500 employees • Baptist Health Care – 3,470 employees • University of West Florida – 2,267 employees • Solutia, Inc. – 1,800 employees • Lakeview – 1,500 employees • Gulf Power Company – 1,400 employees • West Florida Hospital – 1,200 employees Source: Greater Pensacola Chamber of Commerce

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Commission to slice budget by $12 million • Approximately $12 million is expected to be cut from the 2009-2010 fiscal budget.

• Of that amount, about $6.5 million will be cut from the Sheriff’s Office.

• The budget will take effect October 1, 2009.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, February 14, 2009

New complexes offer affordable housing • The opening of two Morris Court housing complexes will provide low income families and senior citizens with 124 affordable housing apartments.

• The two complexes, Morris Court II and Morris Court III, are located on North M Street. Morris Court II is a 74-unit complex for families and Morris Court III is a 50-unit building designated for senior citizens. Monthly rent in the complexes, which are only available to residents who meet guidelines for low-income status, ranges from $213 to $700.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, February 12, 2009

74

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Community Maritime Park fees up at least $45,000 • As negotiations for Community Maritime Park continue, legal and consulting fees have increased $45,000 from $110,000 to $155,000.

• Several firms involved in reviewing the development deals are taking longer to complete the agreement than expected, as the city has reviewed and made changes to it.

• With the timeline being miscalculated all along, the 60 day expected negotiation time has turned into six months.

Source: The Pensacola Business Journal, February 15, 2009

Landfill could be transformed into ballpark • A proposed $4 million to $6 million Escambia County park project would include a baseball field, soccer field, playground, parking and $2 million in improvements for Saufley Field Road.

• The project, which would be built on the Saufley Landfill, is said to spark economic development and will please residents who are tired of the local eyesore.

Source: The Pensacola Business Journal, February 13, 2009

Tax could help fuel ECAT • The Escambia County Commission is considering a 3 to 5 cent tax on gasoline that would help keep ECAT transit buses on the road.

• ECAT currently receives a $7.6 million budget from the county but an additional 3 cent tax would provide a $3.1 million increase.

• No official vote has been taken but most commissioners support the proposition.

Source: The Pensacola Business Journal, January 14, 2009

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

75

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

10.0%

0.6

1.4

1.6

Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product 16000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

15000.0

11000.0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 FL Unemployment Rate Pensacola Unemployment Rate

10000.0

Pensacola Payroll Employment (Thousands)

175.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Real Gross Metro Product

Pensacola Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

170.0

4.0%

165.0

2.0%

160.0

0.0%

155.0

-2.0%

150.0

76

1.2

12000.0

4.0%

145.0

1

13000.0

6.0%

180.0

0.8

14000.0

8.0%

2.0%

0.4

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Pensacola Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

-4.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Real Personal Income

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

March 2009 Forecast

2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

14.4 0.9 6.8 7.6 12 0.7 31.8 26.4 37.4 2.7

14.6 0.6 6.8 7.8 12.2 1.8 32.2 26.8 37.7 3.3

14.6 0.9 6.8 7.8 12.2 3.2 32.3 26.8 37.9 2.9

14.7 1.5 6.8 7.9 12.2 2.1 32.4 26.8 38 2.6

14.8 2.3 6.9 7.9 12.2 1.8 32.6 26.9 38.2 2.2

14.9 2 6.9 8 12.2 0.7 32.9 27 38.3 1.7

15 2.8 6.9 8.1 12.3 1.1 33.2 27.1 38.5 1.6

15.1 3.2 7 8.2 12.3 1.3 33.4 27.2 38.6 1.5

15.3 3.7 7.1 8.3 12.4 1.8 33.7 27.3 38.8 1.5

15.5 3.7 7.1 8.3 12.5 1.9 34 27.4 38.9 1.4

15.6 3.9 7.2 8.5 12.6 2.3 34.3 27.6 38.9 1.2

15.8 4.1 7.2 8.6 12.6 2.5 34.6 27.7 39 1.1

15.9 4 7.3 8.7 12.7 2.4 34.9 27.8 39.1 1

16.1 4.4 7.3 8.8 12.8 2.7 35.3 28 39.3 1

167.2 -1.6 5.7 -9.3 161.5 -1.3 10.5 -9.6 31.3 0.3 6.5 21.4 3.8 2.9 -4.9 8.9 -2.3 21 -5.9 31.1 2 18 -0.2 7.7 0.3 6.5 0 23.6 0.2

167.7 -0.4 5.6 -7 162.1 -0.1 10.3 -7.3 31.4 1.6 6.5 21.6 3.8 2.9 -3.6 9 0.1 21.3 -2.7 31.4 2.1 18 0 7.6 0.9 6.4 -0.6 23.7 0.6

168.1 0.4 5.7 -3.4 162.5 0.5 10.3 -4.2 31.5 1.7 6.5 21.7 3.8 3 -1.5 9 1.7 21.5 -0.6 31.7 2.6 17.9 0.1 7.6 -0.2 6.4 -1 23.6 0.4

168.8 1.2 5.7 -0.8 163.1 1.2 10.3 -1.9 31.5 1.3 6.5 21.7 3.8 3 1.2 9.1 2 22 4.3 31.9 3.1 17.8 -0.8 7.6 -1.1 6.4 -1.4 23.5 0.2

169.6 1.5 5.7 1 163.9 1.5 10.5 -0.2 31.6 0.9 6.5 21.6 3.9 3 3.1 9.1 1.8 22.6 7.9 32.1 3 17.7 -1.3 7.6 -1.2 6.3 -2.7 23.5 -0.7

170.6 1.7 5.7 2.3 164.9 1.7 10.6 3.3 31.5 0.2 6.6 21.4 3.9 3.1 4.6 9.1 1.5 23.3 9.6 32.3 2.7 17.7 -1.3 7.5 -1.3 6.3 -2 23.3 -1.7

171.7 2.1 5.8 1.9 166 2.1 10.9 5.8 31.5 0 6.7 21.2 4 3.1 4.3 9.2 1.7 24 11.4 32.5 2.5 17.9 -0.3 7.5 -1.9 6.3 -1.3 23.3 -1.6

172.5 2.2 5.8 2 166.7 2.3 11.1 7.3 31.6 0.2 6.8 21.2 4.1 3.1 3.3 9.2 1.9 24.4 11.1 32.6 2.1 18 1.2 7.5 -1.8 6.3 -1.3 23 -2.2

173.2 2.1 5.8 2.2 167.3 2.1 11.4 8.7 31.7 0.5 6.8 21.3 4.1 3.1 2.3 9.3 1.8 24.6 8.7 32.6 1.6 18.1 2.2 7.4 -1.8 6.2 -1.4 22.9 -2.3

174.2 2.1 5.9 2.3 168.3 2.1 11.6 9.4 32 1.4 6.9 21.4 4.2 3.1 1.3 9.3 2 24.8 6.5 32.7 1.1 18.2 2.7 7.4 -2.2 6.2 -1.2 23 -1.4

14069.5 13935.9 13904.9 13944.5 14062.9 14197.4 14307.7 14438.4 14570.2 14706.8 14858.5 14986.3 15080.5 454 453.9 453.6 453.3 453.3 453.3 453.4 453.7 454.1 454.6 455.3 456 456.8 0.2 0.1 0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 214.6 214.4 214.2 214 214 214 214.1 214.3 214.4 214.6 214.8 215 215.3 1 0.8 -0.3 -0.7 -0.3 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 8.6 9 9.5 9.7 9.8 9.7 9.7 9.6 9.3 9 8.8 8.5 8.4 501 431 568 842 1226 1896 2404 2850 3247 3549 3807 4086 4291 383 369 536 804 1174 1696 2191 2648 3040 3341 3568 3795 3938 118 62 33 38 52 200 213 202 207 209 239 290 353

15223 457.6 0.7 215.7 0.5 8.1 4529 4147 382

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

169.8 -3.4 6.2 -10.3 163.6 -3.1 11.6 -16.3 31.2 -5.4 6.4 21 3.9 3.1 -9.2 9.1 -3.8 22.3 -3 30.5 1 18 -1.1 7.6 -2.6 6.5 -0.3 23.6 1.5

168.4 -3.6 6 -11.1 162.3 -3.3 11.1 -17.6 30.9 -5.9 6.4 20.9 3.8 3 -8.1 9 -4.7 21.9 -4.3 30.8 1.4 18 -0.1 7.6 -2.7 6.5 1.1 23.6 0.9

167.4 -3.7 5.9 -13.8 161.6 -3.3 10.7 -19.3 31 -4.3 6.4 21 3.8 3 -8.3 8.9 -4.9 21.6 -5.3 30.9 1.7 17.9 -0.3 7.7 -2.2 6.4 0.4 23.5 -0.1

166.8 -3.4 5.7 -12.9 161.1 -3.1 10.5 -17 31.1 -2.2 6.4 21.2 3.8 3 -7.6 8.9 -3.5 21.1 -6.8 31 1.5 17.9 -1.1 7.7 -0.4 6.4 -0.6 23.4 -1.3

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

77

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

March 2009 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

10.5 3.2 5.1 5.4 10.1 1.8 24.5 23.7 29.9 1

10.9 4.1 5.4 5.6 10.3 2.1 25.2 23.8 30.8 3

11.7 7.4 5.8 6 10.8 4.7 26.7 24.6 32.6 5.9

12.5 6.7 6.1 6.4 11.2 3.7 28.1 25.2 33.9 3.8

13.6 8.5 6.6 7 11.9 5.6 30.2 26.3 35.7 5.3

14.1 3.6 6.8 7.3 12 0.9 31.1 26.5 36.4 1.9

14.4 2.6 6.8 7.6 11.9 -0.7 31.8 26.2 36.7 0.9

14.6 1 6.8 7.8 12.1 1.9 32.2 26.7 37.7 2.9

15 2.6 6.9 8 12.3 1.2 33 27 38.4 1.7

15.5 3.9 7.1 8.4 12.5 2.1 34.2 27.5 38.9 1.3

16.3 4.6 7.4 8.9 12.9 2.9 35.5 28.1 39.4 1.2

173.1 2.6 7.4 -1.4 165.7 2.8 15.4 10.4 32.2 -0.2 6.2 21.8 4.2 3.8 0.7 8.9 8.4 23.2 0.5 27.5 5.9 17.7 2.5 7.8 0 6.7 0.4 22.5 1.4

174.4 0.8 7 -5.6 167.4 1.1 14.6 -4.6 32.8 1.9 6.6 22.2 4.1 3.5 -7.8 9.3 4.9 23 -1.1 29.2 6.2 17.6 -0.3 7.9 1.2 6.5 -2.8 22.8 1.6

174.3 -0.1 6.8 -3.4 167.5 0.1 13.3 -9 32.5 -0.9 6.5 21.8 4.2 3.3 -5.5 9.4 0.2 22.8 -0.7 30.4 4 18.1 2.6 7.8 -1.3 6.4 -1.5 23.5 2.7

168.1 -3.5 6 -12 162.1 -3.2 11 -17.5 31.1 -4.5 6.4 21 3.8 3 -8.3 9 -4.2 21.7 -4.9 30.8 1.4 18 -0.6 7.6 -2 6.5 0.2 23.5 0.2

168 -0.1 5.7 -5.2 162.3 0.1 10.3 -5.9 31.4 1.2 6.5 21.6 3.8 3 -2.2 9 0.3 21.4 -1.3 31.6 2.4 17.9 -0.2 7.6 0 6.4 -0.7 23.6 0.3

171.1 1.9 5.8 1.8 165.4 1.9 10.8 4 31.6 0.3 6.7 21.3 4 3.1 3.8 9.2 1.8 23.6 10 32.4 2.6 17.8 -0.4 7.5 -1.5 6.3 -1.8 23.2 -1.5

174.6 2.1 5.9 2.2 168.8 2 11.7 9 32.1 1.6 6.9 21.5 4.2 3.1 1.5 9.3 1.9 25 6 32.7 0.9 18.3 2.4 7.4 -2.1 6.2 -1.1 23 -0.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

78

154.7 -0.3 7.3 -7.1 147.3 0.1 11.1 -13.4 29.1 0.2 5.3 20.5 3.3 4.2 13.6 6.5 -6 19.2 5.4 25.3 4.6 15.7 -0.2 7.7 2.9 6.9 -6.2 21.6 -0.8

158.5 2.5 7.4 1.1 151.1 2.6 10.8 -2.8 29.4 1 5.3 20.8 3.3 4.1 -2 6.8 4.6 20.1 4.6 26.8 6.2 16.6 6.1 7.9 2.6 6.9 -0.5 21.6 0

162.9 2.8 7.3 -1.3 155.6 3 11.6 7.7 30.4 3.2 5.6 21.1 3.7 3.9 -4.5 7.5 9.8 21.6 7.2 26.7 -0.4 17.4 4.7 7.9 0.9 6.7 -2.2 21.8 0.9

11629.3 12209.3 12743.2 428.1 433.9 439.9 1.7 1.4 1.4 187.3 191.1 194.3 0.5 2.1 1.7 5.3 4.8 4.6 3141 4426 4713 2955 3558 3629 186 868 1083

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

168.7 3.6 7.5 3.1 161.1 3.6 13.9 19.4 32.3 6.2 6.2 21.9 4.2 3.8 -4.7 8.2 9.9 23.1 7.1 26 -2.9 17.2 -0.9 7.8 -1.6 6.7 -0.5 22.2 2

13567 14016.6 13994.9 14051.6 13963.7 14251.6 14780.5 15292.8 445 450.2 452.2 453.5 453.7 453.4 455 458.1 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.3 0 -0.1 0.4 0.7 197.9 203.4 209.2 213.8 214.3 214.1 214.7 215.9 1.8 2.8 2.9 2.2 0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.6 3.8 3.2 3.8 5.5 9.2 9.7 8.9 8.1 3764 2765 2472 1420 586 2094 3672 4591 3285 2325 1778 1209 523 1927 3436 4179 479 440 694 210 63 167 236 412

Ta l l aha s s ee

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla counties. It is located between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State University and Florida A&M University.

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 352,319 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Gadsden County population estimate of 47,197 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Jefferson County population estimate of 14,451 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Leon County population estimate of 260,945 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Wakulla County population estimate of 29,726 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • An MSA civilian labor force of 186,760 in January 2008 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3.3% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 6,153 unemployed people for the entire region.

(Florida Research and Economic Database)

The Tallahassee area should see personal income growth averaging 3.1 percent each year, while average annual wage is also expected to grow 2.2 percent, one of the highest in the state. Employment growth will decline by 0.2 percent annually, making it the only metro with negative growth.

Per capita income levels should average 28.4 each year.

Housing starts are expected to grow by 45.4 percent, one of the lowest in the state.

Professional and business services will be the leading sector in Tallahassee, averaging 2.8 percent growth annually. Education and health services follow that sector with 1.8 percent average annual growth. Unemployment in the area is expected to average 7.0 percent each year.

Top Area Employers: • State Government (all departments) – 46,200 employees • Local Government (all departments) – 16,100 employees • Tallahassee Memorial Healthcare – 2,750 employees • Federal Government (all departments) – 1,900 employees • Alltel Florida, Inc. – 1,000 employees • Tallahassee Leon County Civic Center - 672 employees • Quincy Corp. - 575 employees • Capital Regional Medical Center - 572 employees • Meridian Healthcare Group - 500 employees • Branch Banking & Trust Co. - 403 employees Sources: Florida Regional Economic Database and Tallahassee Economic Development Council

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Higher fees coming to Leon County • Leon County residents will pay between $13 and $17 more per month in fees for fire, ambulance, solid-waste and stormwater service.

• County employees won’t see a raise and departmental budgets will still be cut as Leon County officials are aiming to use this money to close the $18-million budget deficit for the 2010 fiscal year.

• Commissioners expect to use these increased fees to make up for the projected $11.5-million drop in revenues and to make up for the rest of the deficit with a proposed gasoline tax and money from the reserve funds.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, March 20, 2009

Leon County School Board approves $12-million in cuts • Due to a $12-million cut in Leon County’s budget, substantial changes had to be made by the school board to the current budget allocation.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

79

Ta l l aha s s ee

• There was a unanimous vote to close Belle Vue Middle School and the Academic Resource Center, eliminate a seven-period day and enact a 4 percent cut in every elementary and middle school’s budget.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, February 25, 2009 Bill would enforce Internet sales tax collection • Several members of the Senate have teamed up in hopes of adding more than $2 billion to Florida’s treasury through the collection of sales tax on Internet transactions.

• Supporters are fighting to join 22 other states in collecting tax on purchases made through Amazon and other large online retailers.

• The $2 billion in generated revenue would be nearly half of the estimated fiscal shortfall for 2009-2010.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, February 13, 2009

Additional state tax on cigarettes considered • Florida Legislature is pushing for a $1-a-pack tax increase in cigarette sales.

• The projected $700 million to $1 billion in generated revenue would help deal with Florida’s potential $4-billion budget shortfall.

• Although Florida is one of only six states that has not increased cigarette taxes since 2002, the general rule is that with a 25 percent increase in cost there is a 10 percent decrease in sales; this is sure to be a tough battle.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, February 6, 2009

80

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

$3.6-million cut from aerospace research • Florida State University launched the Florida Center for Advanced Aero-Propulsion in November 2008 with a $13.5-million budget.

• With a 25 percent budget cut of $3.6 million, the center is trying to minimize its impact on its current projects.

• Bringing $9 billion of business to the Florida economy per year and ranking third in the nation for aerospace employment, Florida’s aerospace industry cannot afford such large budget cuts.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, January 19, 2009

Ta l l aha s s ee Tallahassee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.5

Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

1

1.5

Tampa Real Gross Metro Product 110000.0

6.0%

80000.0

4.0%

70000.0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 FL Unemployment Rate Tallahassee Unemployment Rate

60000.0

Tallahassee Payroll Employment (Thousands)

(Millions 2000 $)

8.0% 6.0%

170.0

4.0%

165.0

2.0%

160.0

0.0%

155.0

-2.0% 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Tallahassee Payroll Employment

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Real Gross Metro Product

Tallahassee Real Personal Income

175.0

150.0

3

90000.0

8.0%

180.0

2.5

100000.0

10.0%

2.0%

2

-4.0%

(percent change year ago)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

81

Ta l l aha s s ee

Quarterly Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

March 2009 Forecast

2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

11.8 1 6.7 5.1 9.8 0.7 33.1 27.4 38.4 2.8

11.9 1.2 6.7 5.2 9.9 2.3 33.5 27.8 38.8 3.5

12 1.3 6.7 5.2 9.9 3.6 33.5 27.9 39 3.2

12 1.8 6.7 5.3 10 2.4 33.6 27.9 39.2 3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

173.7 -3.1 4.2 -9.1 169.5 -2.9 7.7 -15.4 23.7 -4.6 3.9 17.7 2.2 3.6 -16.8 8 -3.8 19.1 -2.7 18.6 2 17.2 -2.1 8.8 -1.2 1.9 -0.6 60.9 -1.5

172.3 -3 4.1 -9.6 168.3 -2.8 7.4 -15.7 23.5 -6.2 3.8 17.6 2.2 3.5 -15.1 7.9 -5.5 18.7 -4.3 18.8 2.4 17.2 -1.4 8.7 -2.3 1.9 0.2 60.7 -0.1

171 -3 3.9 -12.2 167.1 -2.8 7 -16.5 23.6 -2.1 3.8 17.9 2.2 3.4 -7.6 7.8 -3.5 18.1 -6.8 18.9 1.4 17.2 -0.5 8.8 -0.9 1.9 -0.9 60.3 -1.8

12.2 2.1 6.8 5.4 10 0.8 34.1 28 39.6 2.2

12.3 2.9 6.9 5.4 10.1 1.2 34.4 28.1 39.8 2

12.4 3.3 6.9 5.5 10.1 1.4 34.6 28.2 40 1.9

12.5 3.8 7 5.6 10.2 1.9 35 28.4 40.2 2

12.7 3.8 7 5.6 10.2 2 35.3 28.5 40.3 1.8

12.8 3.9 7.1 5.7 10.3 2.2 35.6 28.6 40.4 1.7

12.9 3.9 7.1 5.8 10.3 2.3 35.8 28.7 40.6 1.5

13 3.7 7.2 5.9 10.4 2.1 36.1 28.8 40.7 1.4

13.2 4.1 7.2 6 10.5 2.5 36.5 29 40.9 1.5

171.2 -1.4 3.8 -8.7 167.4 -1.2 7 -9.7 23.7 0.3 3.9 18 2.2 3.4 -4.7 7.8 -2.4 18 -5.7 19 1.8 17.3 0.5 8.8 0.1 1.9 2.6 60.5 -0.7

171.7 -0.4 3.8 -6.5 167.9 -0.2 6.9 -7.4 23.8 1.6 3.9 18.2 2.2 3.4 -3.4 7.9 -0.2 18.3 -2.3 19.2 2 17.3 0.6 8.8 1.1 1.9 0.8 60.5 -0.4

171.9 0.2 3.9 -2.7 168 0.2 6.8 -4.3 23.9 1.6 3.9 18.3 2.2 3.4 -1.1 7.9 1.2 18.5 -0.4 19.3 2.4 17.2 0.4 8.8 0.1 1.9 -0.2 60.4 -0.3

172.1 0.6 3.9 0.1 168.2 0.7 6.9 -2.2 23.9 1.2 3.9 18.2 2.2 3.5 1.4 7.9 1.4 18.9 4.7 19.4 2.8 17 -1 8.7 -0.8 1.9 -1.3 60 -0.5

172.7 0.9 3.9 2 168.8 0.8 6.9 -0.4 23.9 0.6 3.9 18.1 2.2 3.5 3.3 7.9 1.4 19.5 8.3 19.5 2.6 16.9 -1.9 8.7 -0.6 1.9 -2.9 60 -0.8

173.3 0.9 3.9 3.3 169.3 0.9 7 2.8 23.8 -0.1 3.9 18 2.3 3.5 4.6 8 1.2 20.2 10 19.6 2.3 17 -1.9 8.7 -0.8 1.9 -1.9 59.7 -1.3

174.1 1.3 3.9 2.4 170.2 1.3 7.2 5.2 23.8 -0.4 4 17.8 2.3 3.6 4.1 8 1.5 20.8 12.1 19.7 2.2 17.1 -0.6 8.6 -1.4 1.9 -1.5 59.6 -1.3

174.5 1.4 4 2.3 170.6 1.4 7.3 6.8 23.8 -0.3 4 17.8 2.3 3.6 3.1 8 1.7 21.2 11.7 19.8 1.8 17.3 1.3 8.6 -1.4 1.9 -1.2 59.1 -1.5

175 1.3 4 2.3 171 1.3 7.5 8.2 23.9 0 4 17.9 2.4 3.6 2.2 8.1 1.6 21.3 9.2 19.7 1.4 17.4 2.8 8.6 -1.5 1.9 -1.6 59.1 -1.5

175.8 1.5 4 2.4 171.8 1.5 7.7 8.8 24 1 4.1 18 2.4 3.6 1.1 8.1 1.7 21.5 6.8 19.8 0.9 17.5 3.4 8.5 -1.9 1.9 -1.5 59.2 -0.8

12475.5 12355.2 12334.6 12366.9 12473.8 12593.8 12683.1 12785.3 12888.2 13001.1 13130.4 13239.6 13319.5 13438.9 356.3 356.7 356.8 357 357.3 357.5 357.8 358.2 358.5 358.9 359.4 360 360.7 361.4 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 187.8 187.4 187.1 186.9 186.9 186.9 187 187.2 187.4 187.6 187.9 188.2 188.5 189 0.2 0.4 -1 -1 -0.5 -0.3 0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 6.9 7 7.4 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.2 7 6.9 6.6 6.5 6.3 745 709 801 1009 1301 1813 2190 2543 2891 3133 3347 3561 3692 3896 377 369 489 694 982 1416 1825 2200 2525 2771 2955 3137 3245 3412 367 340 312 314 319 398 364 343 366 362 392 424 448 484

*Quarterly at an annual rate

82

171.6 -3.2 4 -11.7 167.7 -3 7.1 -16.7 23.5 -4.3 3.8 17.7 2.2 3.5 -10.2 7.8 -4 18.6 -4.6 18.8 1.8 17.1 -1.8 8.8 -1.2 1.9 -1.4 60.6 -1.5

12.1 2.5 6.8 5.3 10 2 33.8 27.9 39.4 2.7

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

Ta l l aha s s ee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

March 2009 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

8.4 2.1 5.3 3.1 8.1 0.7 25.7 24.8 32.2 2.9

8.7 3.6 5.5 3.3 8.3 1.6 26.2 24.8 32.8 2.1

9.5 8.4 5.8 3.7 8.7 5.6 28 25.9 34.2 4.2

10.2 7.5 6.1 4.1 9.1 4.4 29.7 26.6 35 2.3

10.9 7.3 6.4 4.5 9.5 4.4 31.4 27.4 36.1 3

11.5 5 6.7 4.8 9.7 2.4 32.6 27.7 37.2 3.1

11.8 2.6 6.7 5.1 9.7 -0.6 33.2 27.3 37.6 1.3

11.9 1.3 6.7 5.2 9.9 2.3 33.4 27.8 38.8 3.2

12.2 2.7 6.8 5.4 10 1.3 34.2 28 39.7 2.2

12.7 3.9 7 5.7 10.2 2.1 35.4 28.5 40.4 1.8

13.3 4.4 7.3 6 10.5 2.7 36.7 29.1 41 1.6

176.9 2.4 4.4 4.9 172.5 2.3 9.8 4.7 25.6 0.9 3.7 19.4 2.4 3.9 -4.7 8.3 4.4 20.1 4.8 17.4 3.4 16.2 3.3 8.5 5.8 1.9 -1.8 60.8 1.1

178.7 1 4.6 2.8 174.2 1 9.5 -3.5 25.3 -1.2 3.9 19 2.4 4 3 8.3 -1 20 -0.3 17.9 2.6 16.9 4.5 8.8 4.6 1.9 0 61.6 1.3

177.6 -0.6 4.5 -1.4 173.1 -0.6 8.7 -7.9 24.6 -2.7 3.9 18.3 2.4 4 -0.5 8.2 -0.5 19.5 -2.5 18.4 3.1 17.4 3.3 8.9 0.4 1.9 0.9 61.4 -0.4

172.1 -3.1 4 -10.6 168.1 -2.9 7.3 -16.1 23.6 -4.3 3.8 17.7 2.2 3.5 -12.6 7.9 -4.2 18.6 -4.6 18.8 1.9 17.2 -1.5 8.8 -1.4 1.9 -0.7 60.6 -1.2

171.7 -0.3 3.8 -4.6 167.9 -0.2 6.9 -6 23.8 1.2 3.9 18.2 2.2 3.4 -2 7.9 0 18.5 -1 19.2 2.3 17.2 0.1 8.8 0.1 1.9 0.5 60.4 -0.5

173.6 1.1 3.9 2.5 169.7 1.1 7.1 3.6 23.8 -0.1 4 17.9 2.3 3.5 3.8 8 1.4 20.4 10.6 19.6 2.2 17.1 -0.8 8.7 -1.1 1.9 -1.9 59.6 -1.2

176.3 1.5 4 2.3 172.3 1.5 7.7 8.4 24.1 1.3 4.1 18 2.4 3.6 1.3 8.1 1.6 21.7 6.3 19.8 0.8 17.6 3 8.5 -1.8 1.9 -1.3 59.3 -0.5

10535.1 10961.1 11424.3 12154.2 12488.2 12588.6 12633.4 328.3 333.3 337.7 342.3 347.4 351.6 354.7 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.2 0.9 172.5 173.4 173.4 175.6 180.8 185.7 188 0 0.5 0 1.3 2.9 2.8 1.2 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.2 2.9 3.2 4.5 2661 3822 3382 3702 3096 2761 1507 2177 2424 2131 2767 2536 2166 1043 483 1398 1251 934 560 595 464

12383 356.7 0.6 187.3 -0.4 7.2 816 482 333

12634 13064.8 13498.7 357.7 359.2 361.8 0.3 0.4 0.7 187 187.8 189.2 -0.2 0.4 0.8 7.6 6.9 6.2 1962 3233 3946 1606 2847 3435 356 386 511

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

164.4 -0.9 4.1 -6.6 160.2 -0.8 7.2 3.5 23.4 -3.1 3.2 18.1 2.1 4 -13.4 7.4 7.4 18.2 -2.7 16.5 -1.8 13.4 3.2 8.1 -0.2 1.9 2.2 60.1 -0.4

165.7 0.8 4.1 -0.6 161.6 0.8 7.7 7.1 23.5 0.5 3 18.5 2 3.8 -3.8 7.7 3 18.2 -0.1 16.7 1.1 13.6 1.6 7.8 -3.7 2 3 60.6 0.8

168.2 1.5 4.2 2 163.9 1.5 8.3 8.6 24.6 4.4 3.3 19.1 2.1 4 4.6 7.6 -0.7 18.2 -0.2 16.4 -1.7 14.4 6.1 8 2.8 1.9 -3.3 60.5 -0.1

172.8 2.8 4.2 0.8 168.6 2.8 9.4 12.4 25.4 3.4 3.6 19.3 2.5 4.1 1.9 8 4.8 19.2 5.6 16.8 2.7 15.6 8.3 8 -0.6 1.9 0 60.2 -0.5

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

83

Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r w a t e r

P r o fi l e s The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is comprised of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas counties. Located centrally on the west coast of Florida, this region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge Docks, Ybor City, Bush Gardens, the University of South Florida, and the University of Tampa. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Devil Rays also call this region home.

Quick Facts: • MSA population estimate of 2,723,949 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hernando County population estimate of 169,070 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hillsborough County population estimate of 1,174,727 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Pasco County population estimate of 462,715 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Pinellas County population estimate of 917,437 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 1,341,382 in January 2008 for the entire region (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 4.8% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 64,031 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Publix Super Markets – 23,248 employees • Hillsborough County School District – 21,426 employees • MacDill Air Force Base – 19,000 employees • Baycare – 17,000 employees • Verizon Communications – 14,000 employees • University of South Florida – 12,477 employees • Hillsborough County Government – 10,886 employees • Danka Business Systems – 9,500 employees

84

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

• Tampa International Airport – 8,000 employees • Lincare Holdings – 6,100 employees Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal & Committee of One Hundred Research

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is expected to show relatively moderate gains in the state. Personal income growth is expected to be 3.7 percent on average each year. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.3 percent, one of the highest in the state. Employment growth is expected to average 1.1 percent each year.

Tampa is forecasted to have one of the highest gross metro products, averaging a level of 95449 annually.

The fastest growing sector in the Tampa area is professional and business services, growing 5.2 percent each year. The education and health services sector follows with an average annual growth rate of 2.4 percent.

Unemployment in the area is expected to average 9.9 percent each year.

M e t r o Ne w s Summa r ie s Tampa Electric to buy solar energy from Energy 5.0 plant in Polk • Tampa Bay Electric Company signed a 25-year contract with Energy 5.0 to buy solar power.

• Energy 5.0, one of the nation’s largest solar energy plants, will help avoid the emission of up to 1.45 million tons of carbon dioxide.

• With this contract Tampa Bay Electric will help encourage the production of renewable energy, reduce the state’s dependence on natural gas, provide a basis for economic development, and reduce environmental impacts.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, March 9, 2009

Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r w a t e r

TBARTA supports Tampa rail plan

Air traffic declines at Tampa International Airport

• TBARTA supports the launch of light rail mass transit in Hillsborough County and a joint bus system in Citrus and Hernando counties.

• There were approximately 57,000 fewer passengers at the Tampa International Airport this December, indicating a 7.4 percent decline in traffic.

• This small step is an effort to move toward a regional transportation plan for the seven counties surrounding the Tampa Bay area.

• Although air travel is off 6.4 percent for the year at TIA, Southwest Airlines increased its market share 28.3 percent followed by Delta and US Airways.

• A proposed $2 rental car surcharge that would generate $22 million per year would help fund the project.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, January 14, 2009

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, February 27, 2009

Tampa Bay area districts to get 49,500 jobs • At the end of 2008, there were 680,000 jobless Floridians with 34,400 located in the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater area.

• With Obama’s $789 billion package, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, the Tampa Bay region will be receiving 49,600 jobs, which is more than what was initially lost.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, February 18, 2009

Hillsborough, Hernando, Sarasota foreclosing faster than state • Foreclosures in Hillsborough, Hernando and Sarasota counties jumped up 157 percent in 2008, finishing at a rate ahead of statewide numbers.

• Hernando, Hillsborough, and Sarasota have 5 percent, 4.78 percent, and 4.63 percent foreclosure rates, respectively, while the state average stands at 4.52 percent.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, January 15, 2009

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

85

Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r w a t e r Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

Florida & Tampa Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.4

0.6

0.8

110000.0

80000.0

4.0%

70000.0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 FL Unemployment Rate Tampa Unemployment Rate

60000.0

Tampa Payroll Employment (Thousands)

(Millions 2000 $)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Real Gross Metro Product

Tampa Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

1300.0

4.0%

1200.0

2.0% 0.0%

1100.0

86

1.6

Tampa Real Gross Metro Product

6.0%

1000.0

1.4

90000.0

8.0%

1400.0

1.2

100000.0

10.0%

2.0%

1

-2.0% 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Tampa Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

-4.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Real Personal Income

Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r w a t e r

Quarterly Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

March 2009 Forecast

2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

102.8 0.8 52.8 50 85.3 0.5 37.4 31 42.1 3

104 0.5 52.8 51.2 86.6 1.6 37.8 31.4 42.5 3.6

104.1 0.8 52.9 51.2 86.5 3.1 37.8 31.4 42.8 3.3

104.4 1.5 53 51.4 86.6 2.1 37.8 31.4 43 3.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1244 -3.9 67.2 -7.1 1176.8 -3.7 69 -13.3 222.2 -4.7 51.8 144.2 27.6 29.5 -5.4 97.7 -2.2 271.2 -6.2 167.8 1.8 117.7 -4.1 45.8 -4.2 22.1 -0.3 133.9 1.5

1231.3 -4.4 65.1 -8.6 1166.1 -4.1 66.7 -15.3 220.1 -5.1 51.3 143.2 27.3 29 -6.6 96 -4.4 265.9 -6.3 169.4 2.4 117.6 -4.6 45.3 -4 22.1 -1.4 134 1.5

1225.6 -4.2 63.3 -10.4 1162.3 -3.8 64.1 -14.8 220.1 -4.5 51.1 144.1 26.8 28.5 -7.1 94.5 -6.3 265.2 -5 170 2.2 117.5 -4.8 45.9 -2.1 22.1 -1.2 134.4 1.2

1221.3 -3.3 62.1 -11.1 1159.2 -2.9 63.2 -13.5 221 -2.1 51.2 145.6 26.7 28 -7.9 94.7 -4.4 261.1 -5.5 170.9 2.3 118 -1.4 46.1 -1.2 22.1 -0.7 133.9 0.4

105.3 2.4 53.6 51.7 86.9 1.9 38.1 31.4 43.2 2.8

106.5 2.4 54.2 52.3 87.5 1 38.5 31.6 43.4 2.2

107.7 3.5 54.8 52.9 88 1.7 38.8 31.7 43.7 2.1

109 4.4 55.6 53.4 88.7 2.5 39.2 31.9 43.9 2.1

110.6 5 56.5 54 89.6 3.1 39.7 32.2 44.2 2.2

112 5.2 57.3 54.7 90.4 3.3 40.1 32.4 44.3 2

113.5 5.4 58.2 55.3 91.3 3.7 40.6 32.6 44.5 1.8

114.9 5.4 58.9 55.9 92 3.7 41 32.8 44.6 1.5

116.3 5.2 59.7 56.6 92.7 3.5 41.4 33 44.8 1.4

118.1 5.4 60.4 57.7 93.8 3.7 41.9 33.3 45 1.5

1227.3 -1.3 61.4 -8.7 1165.9 -0.9 62.8 -9 222.1 0 51.3 147.3 26.6 27.7 -6.1 95.5 -2.3 263.8 -2.7 171.6 2.3 118.3 0.5 45.9 0.3 22.8 3.3 135.4 1.1

1236.5 0.4 60.9 -6.5 1175.6 0.8 61.8 -7.4 223.1 1.4 51.5 148.9 26.7 27.6 -4.7 96.4 0.4 270.7 1.8 173.3 2.3 118.5 0.7 45.8 1.1 22.5 2 135.9 1.4

1244 1.5 61.6 -2.8 1182.4 1.7 61.5 -4.1 223.6 1.6 51.5 149.5 26.7 27.8 -2.3 96.9 2.6 275.9 4 174.8 2.8 118.1 0.6 46 0.2 22.2 0.6 135.7 1

1255 2.8 62 -0.1 1193 2.9 62.1 -1.7 223.9 1.3 51.5 149.6 26.7 28.1 0.2 97.5 2.9 285.1 9.2 176.4 3.2 117.2 -0.7 45.9 -0.6 22.1 -0.3 134.9 0.7

1268.2 3.3 62.4 1.7 1205.8 3.4 62.8 -0.1 224.1 0.9 52 148.9 26.9 28.3 2.1 98 2.7 296.6 12.4 177.1 3.2 116.3 -1.7 45.7 -0.5 22 -3.7 135 -0.3

1281.9 3.7 62.7 3 1219.2 3.7 63.9 3.4 223.7 0.3 52.4 147.5 27.3 28.6 3.4 98.5 2.2 308.1 13.8 178.4 3 116.3 -1.9 45.6 -0.6 22 -2.6 134.2 -1.2

1297.3 4.3 63 2.3 1234.3 4.4 65.2 6 223.7 0.1 53 146.4 27.7 28.7 3 99.1 2.3 319.4 15.8 179.7 2.8 117.2 -0.8 45.3 -1.3 21.9 -1.3 134.1 -1.2

1309.9 4.4 63.5 2.3 1246.5 4.5 66.6 7.3 224.4 0.2 53.6 146.4 28.1 28.7 2.2 99.9 2.5 328.2 15.1 180.8 2.5 118.3 1 45.2 -1.4 21.9 -0.9 132.4 -1.8

1320.4 4.1 63.9 2.4 1256.5 4.2 68.2 8.7 225.5 0.6 54 147.1 28.4 28.7 1.4 100.6 2.7 333.8 12.5 181.4 2.4 119.3 2.6 45 -1.4 21.8 -0.8 132.3 -2

1331.3 3.9 64.3 2.5 1267 3.9 69.9 9.4 227.1 1.5 54.4 148.2 28.7 28.7 0.4 101.4 2.9 338.7 9.9 181.8 1.9 120.2 3.3 44.7 -1.8 21.8 -0.8 132.8 -1

90849.7 89916.8 89819.7 90133.6 91192.4 92315.9 93200.9 94302.9 95411.3 96570.8 97871.4 99003.9 99929.1 101063 2749.6 2752.9 2756 2759.2 2763.2 2767.6 2772.9 2778.5 2784 2790 2796.4 2803.1 2809.9 2817.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1 1369.1 1370.4 1371.4 1372 1372.7 1374 1375.1 1376.5 1378.3 1380.3 1382.6 1385.3 1388.4 1391.7 1 1.7 1 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 10 10.3 10.7 10.9 10.9 10.8 10.8 10.6 10.1 9.8 9.5 9.2 9 8.7 4436 3738 4755 7021 9910 15327 19266 22645 25830 28269 30442 32718 34537 36572 1972 1939 3146 5245 7874 11579 15343 18836 21757 24108 25933 27727 28944 30651 2465 1798 1609 1776 2036 3748 3923 3809 4073 4161 4510 4991 5593 5921

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

87

Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r w a t e r

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

March 2009 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

74.2 3.4 41.4 32.8 71.6 2 29.8 28.8 34.8 3.5

76.5 3.1 41.9 34.6 72.4 1.1 30.2 28.6 35.1 0.7

82.5 7.9 44.9 37.6 76.1 5.1 31.9 29.4 36 2.7

88.7 7.5 48.1 40.6 79.4 4.4 33.5 30.1 37.2 3.2

96.5 8.8 51.6 44.9 84.1 5.9 35.9 31.3 39.2 5.5

100.5 4.2 53.2 47.3 85.4 1.5 37 31.4 40.5 3.4

102.9 2.4 53.3 49.6 84.7 -0.8 37.6 30.9 41.2 1.8

103.8 0.9 52.9 50.9 86.2 1.8 37.7 31.3 42.6 3.3

107.1 3.2 54.6 52.6 87.8 1.8 38.7 31.7 43.6 2.3

112.7 5.2 57.7 55 90.8 3.5 40.4 32.5 44.4 1.9

119.1 5.6 60.8 58.2 94.3 3.9 42.2 33.4 45.1 1.6

1304.7 1.8 76.2 1.2 1228.5 1.8 90 6.6 234.4 1 54 150 30.4 32.6 -0.2 102 3.3 296.7 2.3 155.6 2.4 122 1.8 46.1 -4.7 21 1.2 128.1 0.7

1300.8 -0.3 73.8 -3.2 1227 -0.1 83.9 -6.8 232.7 -0.7 54.2 149.6 28.9 32.3 -0.9 100.9 -1.1 294.1 -0.9 162.1 4.2 122.1 0.1 46.9 1.6 21.1 0.7 130.9 2.2

1281.1 -1.5 71 -3.7 1210.1 -1.4 76.7 -8.6 230.3 -1 53.5 147.6 29.2 30.8 -4.7 100.1 -0.8 282.1 -4.1 165.9 2.4 122.3 0.2 47.1 0.5 22.3 5.5 132.5 1.2

1230.5 -3.9 64.4 -9.3 1166.1 -3.6 65.8 -14.2 220.8 -4.1 51.3 144.3 27.1 28.7 -6.7 95.7 -4.4 265.9 -5.8 169.5 2.2 117.7 -3.7 45.8 -2.9 22.1 -0.9 134 1.2

1240.7 0.8 61.5 -4.6 1179.2 1.1 62 -5.7 223.2 1.1 51.5 148.8 26.7 27.8 -3.3 96.6 0.9 273.9 3 174 2.6 118 0.3 45.9 0.3 22.4 1.4 135.5 1.1

1289.3 3.9 62.9 2.3 1226.5 4 64.6 4.1 224 0.4 52.7 147.3 27.5 28.6 2.7 98.9 2.4 313.1 14.3 179 2.9 117 -0.9 45.4 -1 21.9 -2.1 133.9 -1.1

1337.4 3.7 64.4 2.4 1273 3.8 70.4 9 227.9 1.7 54.7 148.7 28.8 28.7 0.6 101.6 2.8 342 9.2 182.1 1.7 120.6 3 44.7 -1.7 21.8 -0.8 133.2 -0.5

80045.3 83083.1 86835.3 91689.5 95372.2 95176.3 95094.5 2488.3 2530.3 2585.4 2643.6 2690.4 2718.3 2738.9 1.7 1.7 2.2 2.3 1.8 1 0.8 1223 1226.3 1258.5 1287.4 1316.1 1341.7 1356 1 0.3 2.6 2.3 2.2 1.9 1.1 5.6 5.3 4.5 3.8 3.4 4.2 6.3 23639 27283 27279 32762 22881 11548 8892 18032 20013 22068 27605 19469 8513 5368 5608 7270 5211 5158 3412 3035 3525

90180 2754.4 0.6 1370.7 1.1 10.5 4988 3076 1912

92753 97214.3 2770.6 2793.4 0.6 0.8 1374.6 1381.6 0.3 0.5 10.8 9.6 16787 29315 13408 24881 3379 4434

101650 2821.7 1 1393.6 0.9 8.6 37304 31033 6271

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

88

1176.1 -0.5 78 -5.1 1098.2 -0.2 65.7 3 226.3 -1.8 53.3 140.9 32.1 35.8 -7.9 91.8 0.3 232.9 -1.6 140.2 2.2 111.8 1.1 47 5.7 19 0.7 127.7 0.1

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2009

1183.4 0.6 74 -5.1 1109.4 1 68.2 3.7 219.9 -2.8 50.4 138.8 30.7 34.6 -3.5 93.2 1.5 243.5 4.5 144.8 3.3 112.2 0.4 46.9 -0.1 19.5 2.8 126.6 -0.8

1236.4 4.5 74.6 0.8 1161.8 4.7 75.3 10.4 224.8 2.3 50.9 142.3 31.7 32.9 -4.8 94.8 1.7 273.4 12.3 149.5 3.2 115.8 3.2 48.2 2.7 19.9 2.2 127.2 0.4

1281.5 3.7 75.3 0.9 1206.2 3.8 84.4 12.2 232.2 3.3 52.8 148 31.4 32.7 -0.6 98.8 4.2 290 6.1 151.9 1.6 119.8 3.4 48.4 0.5 20.8 4.2 127.2 0

I n d u s t r y L o ca t i o n Q u o t ie n t

Explanation and Interpretation This technique compares the local economy to a reference economy; in this case, the local economy is the chosen MSA, and the reference economy is the state of Florida. An Industry Location Quotient (LQ) is calculated to determine if the local economy has a greater share of each industry’s employment than the reference economy. The LQ helps to identify specializations that exist in the local economy.

There are only three possible outcomes: 1. An LQ greater than one 2. An LQ equal to one and 3. An LQ less than one. An LQ that is greater than one means that the share of local employment in that particular industry is greater than the reference economy employment share in that same industry. This implies that some of the goods or services produced by that industry are exported for consumption elsewhere. An LQ of one means that local demand is met by the local industry. No goods/services are imported or exported from the local area in that industry. The share of local employment in that industry is equal to the share for that industry in the reference economy. An LQ less than one implies that the industry is not meeting local demand for that good or service, and in order to meet demand, that area must import that good or service. This also means that the share of local employment in that industry is less than the share of employment in that industry for the reference economy.

C a l cu l a t i o n An industry location quotient is a calculated ratio of two ratios.

LQ = ((Local employment in industry A in year T / Total local employment in year T) /

(Reference economy employment in industry A in year T) / (Total reference

employment in year T)) For example: Orlando MSA employment for Information is 27,400 Total Orlando MSA nonagricultural employment is 1,104,100 Florida employment for Information is 169,800 Total Florida nonagricultural employment is 8,247,000 LQ = ((27,400 / 1,104,100) / (169,800 / 8,247,000)) = 1.2039 Source: Florida Regional Economic Database, Current Employment Statistics, December 2006

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

89

In Appeciation

The UCF College of Business Administration would like to thank Alan C. Charron, ‘84, for his generous gift to the Institute for Economic Competitiveness. His support enables the Institute to publish this forecast and will help fund future activities and research. Charron graduated in 1984 with a degree in finance.

He is president of Real Property Specialists, Inc., located in Orlando, Florida.

Founded in 1992, Real Property Specialists, Inc., is a fullservice brokerage company that has built a reputation of providing highly personalized service while being responsive and flexible to its clients' individual needs. They offer a range of commercial real estate services in the Central Florida area including brokerage, appraisal, development, property management and tenant representation.

Real Property Specialists, Inc., has set a new standard of excellence in client service by providing these key advantages over the competition:

Responsiveness. You work directly with a decision

maker who has the flexibility to immediately attend to your needs.

Consistency. We are a unified firm employing team-

members who are committed to the success of our clients.

We pride ourselves on our ability to maintain a dedicated, professional staff that is able to build long-term, comfortable and prosperous relationships with our clients.

Accountability. At Real Property Specialists, our client is the real "Boss." We are accountable to no one other than the client. No company policy interferes with our ability to serve the individual needs of each client.

Experience. The staff at Real Property Specialists is

highly qualified, with most associates having more than a decade of experience in the industry. Our personal portfolio of shopping centers gives us first-hand knowledge of what is important when leasing, managing or selling a property.

Appraisers • Brokers • Consultants 6700 Conroy-Windermere Road, Suite 230 | Orlando, FL 32835 407.291.9000 | www.realpropertyspecialists.com

Director, Institute for Economic Competitiveness.

Ph.D., Pennsylvania State University 1996; M.A., Pennsylvania State University 1994; B.S., Allegheny College 1989.

Sea n M . S n ait h , P h . D .

We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness:

Sean Snaith is Director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness in the College of Business Administration at the University of Central Florida.

Dr. Snaith received his B.S. in Economics from Allegheny College and his M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from Pennsylvania State University. He has taught at Penn State, the American University in Cairo, the University of North Dakota and the University of the Pacific. While at the University of North Dakota, he served as the Director of the Bureau of Business and Economic Research and as Director of the Business Forecasting Center at the University of the Pacific.

Snaith also served with International Planning and Research, a Boston area consulting firm, where his work included forecasting, market sizing, economic analyses, and econometric modeling for a variety of clients including IBM, Dell, Compaq, and HewlettPackard.

Snaith is a director of the Association of University Business of Economic Research, a member of the National Association of Business Economics, and the American Economics Association. He is also a member of the Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast Panel, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Survey of Professional Forecasters, Livingston Survey, Bloomberg U.S. Economic Indicator Survey and USA Today’s Quarterly Survey of Top Economists. He is frequently quoted in the media and has published articles on a variety of topics including exchange rate modeling, predicting educational outcomes, the economics of information technology, and telemedicine.

For more information Sean Snaith, Director Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida P.O. Box 161400 Orlando, FL 32816 PH: 407.823.1451 FAX: 407.823.1454 EMAIL: ssnaith@bus.ucf.edu www.iec.ucf.edu

U n i v e r s it y o f C e n t r al F l o r ida College of Business Administration Institute for Economic Competitiveness P. O . B o x 1 6 1 4 0 0 , O r l a n d o , F l o r i d a 3 2 8 1 6 PH 407.823.1453

FAX 407.823.1454

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