Florida & Metro Forecast November 2006 by UCF College of Business

Florida & Metro Forecast November 2006

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

Message From D ea n T h o ma s L . K e o n

A b o ut U n i v e r s it y o f C e n t r al F l o r ida ( U C F ) T h e Un i ve r s i t y o f C e n t r a l Fl o r i d a i s a public, multi-campus, metropolitan r e s e a r c h u n i v e r s i t y, d e d i c a t e d t o serving its surrounding communities with their diverse and expanding populations, technological corridors, and international partners. The mission of the university is to offer high-quality undergraduate and graduate education, student development, and continuing education; to conduct research and creative activities; and to provide services that enhance the intellectual, cultural, environmental, and economic development of the metropolitan region, address national and international issues in key areas, establish UCF as a major presence, and contribute to the global c o m m u n i t y.

A b o ut t h e C o lle g e o f B u s i n e s s A dmi n i s t r ati o n The College of Business Administration

Welcome to the inaugural Florida and Metro Economic Forecast Report. The report is produced by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, which is located in the UCF College of Business Administration. This publication is intended to educate the public and increase economic awareness. Information from the Institute’s forecast are included in exclusive panels including the USA Today Sur vey of Top Economists, Livingston Sur vey, Sur vey of Professional Forecasters, Reuters, and Bloomberg monthly sur veys. This places UCF in an elite group of just five business schools in the nation that are included in these sur veys. Our business school is young. Our first graduating class was in 1970. However, we have already achieved a strong reputation for attracting high-quality students and faculty members. As our enrollment has grown, so has the college’s commitment to ensuring the deliver y of outstanding academic programs and research institutes. Among those research centers is the Institute for Economic Competitiveness. Established in 1998, the Institute helps the College meet five of the university’s Strategic Initiatives: 1) foster excellence in research and creative activities 2) contribute to regional economic development 3) enhance collaboration 4) increase visibility and 5) enhance university resources.

a d v a n c e s t h e u n i v e r s i t y ’s m i s s i o n and goals in providing intellectual leadership through research, teaching, and service. The college is striving to enhance graduate programs, while maintaining the strong undergraduate base. The college delivers research and quality business education programs at the undergraduate, masters, doctoral, and executive levels to citizens of the state of Florida and to select clientele n a t i o n a l l y a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y.

A new economic forecast will be produced and distributed by the Institute ever y quarter. Each edition will provide updated economic information that is vital to the academic, government, and business communities. It is through the hard work and dedicated research of the faculty and staff of the Institute that I proudly present to you our first issue.

n Thomas L . Keo Sincerely,

Thomas L. Keon Dean

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

F lo r i da F o r eca s t 2006 - 2009 November 2006 Report

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright ÂŠ 2006 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved.

Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Fred Trammel, Associate Director Barbie Barontini, Editor Toni Dodich, Research Assistant Elizabeth Bernstein, Research Assistant Jennifer Scott, Research Assistant Joseph Bianco, Research Assistant

This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitivenessâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.

TABLE OF CONTENTS Florida Summary............................................ 6-9 Florida Forecast Tables............................... 12-17

Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach........ 29-32 Gainesville................................................... 33-37 Jacksonville.................................................. 38-42 Lakeland...................................................... 43-46 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach. ........... 47-51 Naples-Marco Island. ................................... 52-55 Ocala........................................................... 56-59 Orlando-Kissimmee...................................... 60-64 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville...................... 65-68 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent........................... 69-72 Tallahassee.................................................. 73-76 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater.................... 77-81

Tab l e o f c o n t e n t s

Florida Forecast Charts............................... 20-27

F l o r i d a Summa r y

U. S. E c o n o m y S lo w i n g F l o r i d a K eep s G r o w i n g I n f l a t i o n ’ s E mbe r s Glowing T o o F e w H o me s Escrowing The proper method to extinguish a campfire is to douse it with water, stir the coals, then douse it with water again, repeating this process until the coals are cool to the touch. In the October U.S. forecast, we posed the question in the box on the next page to raise the issue of whether the Fed had done enough to put out the inflationary fire in the U.S. economy. Since then recent data releases suggest that the answer to the question might be “no.” Productivity growth, the shock absorber between employment costs and prices of final goods and services, has diminished, and, at the same time, employment costs are up 3.3% year over year for September. Revised payroll employment numbers show that job creation is much stronger than indicated by the preliminary figures. All of these factors create a renewed threat of inflation that has markets changing their belief that the next move by the Fed would be a cut in interest rates.

Elevated energy prices were the primary cause of the deceleration of growth that took place in the 4th quarter of 2005. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita had a profound effect on already elevated energy prices, causing oil to surge past $70 per barrel, gasoline to rise beyond $3.00 per gallon (well beyond $3.00 in some areas of the nation), and natural gas prices to surpass $15 per million British Thermal Units (MMbtu). Consumers were hit by the triple punch of higher home heating costs, higher electricity bills, and higher prices at gas pumps. Businesses were also impacted, and the general elevation in uncertainty created a temporary economic malaise that was subsequently lifted by the “hair of the dog” that bit the economy at the end of 2005 – a fall in energy prices. Gasoline prices fell by more that 20%, natural gas prices fell by 60% (thanks primarily to a milder-than-normal winter in much of the U.S.), and oil prices, while still elevated were down from post-Katrina highs. Unfortunately, the economy went on another energy bender in the middle of the year, as political unrest in the Middle East spooked energy traders, causing a run-up of prices to new record highs. A pronounced drop in oil and gasoline prices followed this spike, giving consumers something to be optimistic about going into the 4th quarter of 2006. Table 1 presents select results from the October 2006 U.S. forecast publication. This publication, along with all forecast publications, is available

Table 1. Selected Results from October 2006 U.S. Forecast 2006Q4

2007Q1

2007Q2

2007Q3

2007Q4

2008Q1

1.9

2.2

2.6

2.7

3.5

2.4

2.7

2.3

1.9

2.0

Oil - WTI ($ per barrel)

64.5

64.4

63.8

63.7

62.7

62.2

Total Real Consumption

2.0

2.4

2.1

2.7

2.8

3.3

Gross Domestic Product % Chg, Annual Rate

Consumer Price Index % Chg from a year earlier ($ per barrel)

% Chg, Annual Rate

Florida & Metro Forecast

F l o r i d a Summa r y

for download from the Institute for Economic The H o u s i n g S o uff l é : Competitiveness web site: www.iec.ucf.edu. The Ou t o f t he O v e n a n d forecast reflects a slowing of the U.S. economy Cooling, Cooling, into the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2007. Consumer Cooling spending decelerates in response to a slowing housing market and as a precautionary measure after enduring yet another spike in energy prices. The housing soufflé reached its peak in 2005. It Consumer spending will grow faster this holiday has subsequently come out of the oven and has been shopping season as compared to the last, but cooling significantly. Housing starts will continue retailers will still need to be aggressive in pricing to fall off in 2007 and 2008 as mortgage rates early in the season in order to attract increasingly continue their slow climb and housing inventories anxious consumers. are finally sold off. This has been a fundamentalsThe economy will reenergize in the second half driven expansion in the housing sector (as opposed of 2007, and 2008 will see a to a speculative bubble), and, return to growth in excess of as long as the fundamentals 3.0%. remain solid the soufflé will “Would Smokey the Bear For the third Federal Open not collapse. There is no approve of the Federal Market Committee meeting sign that the demographic, Reserve Bank’s efforts to in a row, the Federal Reserve extinguish the inflationary macroeconomic, and financial has decided to keep the federal underpinnings of the housing fire in our economy?” funds rate target unchanged market will completely – Institute for Economic at 5.25%. As discussed dissipate. In terms of prices, Competitiveness, previously, recent data is there will be some cooling, U.S Forecast, October 2006 indicative of continuing and the highest points of the inflationary pressure in the soufflé are now settling. As we economy. This may force the Fed out of its holding look beyond 2006, the loftiness of the soufflé will pattern and into another quarter-point interest rate continue to give way as mortgage rates rise. Barring hike. At a bare minimum, the prospect of a cut in any reversals in the ingredients of the soufflé, the the federal funds rate target has been pushed further talk of a national housing bubble will just seem like into the future. a lot of hot air. The extended pause just might be for another Some economists’ dubious predictions of a reason. Is the Fed preparing to roll out an explicit housing-induced recession are being proven wrong. inflation targeting regime? Perhaps the Fed is Currently, the most pessimistic predictions expect simply waiting until this rule-based policy has prices to fall 10% to 20% in some areas. If these been rolled out with a flashy Madison Avenue ad predictions come to pass, it would hardly be campaign. Got Inflation Target? Nah, been done. indicative of a bubble bursting. If the NASDAQ How about Inflation On – Apply directly to the had only fallen by 10% to 20% from its peak, price pressure, Inflation On – Apply directly to the would we be referring to it today as the dot-com price pressure? Too annoying. Kidding aside, I bubble? think that once this soft landing has been navigated the Fed will turn its attention to a rule-based guide for monetary policy or, as Ben Bernanke would phrase it, a policy of constrained discretion. Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a Summa r y

H igh l igh t s o f t he F l o r i d a F o r eca s t 2006-2009

Ou t l o o k f o r F l o r i d a 2006-2009 G r o s s S t a t e P r o d uc t

• Payroll employment forecast to grow at 3.1% in 2006 with growth slowing to 1.8% in 2007 and accelerating to 2.7% by 2009. • High-growth sectors forecast to be: Professional and Business Services and Transportation, Warehousing and Utility, Leisure, and Education and Health Services. • The housing soufflé has finished baking and is out of the oven and cooling quickly. Housing starts peaked in 2005 and begin to fall off from 2006 to 2009, as mortgage rates rise to 7.26% by 2009. The forecasted level of housing starts for 2009 will still be 30,000 more than in 1999. • Construction employment growth slows from 7.8% in 2006 to less than 1% in 2007 and 2008 but rebounds again in 2009. • Gross State Product to grow at nearly 9% in 2006, slowing to an average growth rate of 6.2% from 2007 to 2009. • Unemployment falls to 3.1% in 2006 before rising slightly to 3.2% where it will remain in 2007 and 2008. • Personal income growth accelerating from 6.1% in 2006 to 7.4% in 2008.

Florida & Metro Forecast

The Florida economy will continue to see robust growth over our forecast horizon. Aggregate output of the state, nominal Gross State Product (GSP), the state-level analogue to Gross Domestic Product, expanded at an incredible rate of 10.6% in 2005. From 2006 to 2009 GSP will grow at an average rate of 6.9%. During this period, growth will be the strongest in 2006 at 9%, slowing to 5.6% in 2007 before rising again to 6.6% in 2009. This predicted level of growth is above the nominal GDP growth rate we forecast for the national economy during the same time period (5.14%). Nominal Gross State Product is expected to reach nearly $880 billion by 2009 and will surpass the $900billion mark the following year.

P e r s o n a l I n c o me , Re t ai l Sa l e s , a n d A u t o Sa l e s The growth rate of nominal personal income in 2005 surged to its highest level since 1998 when growth was in excess of 8%. Personal income growth will decelerate through 2007 but still remain greater than 6%. Growth will strengthen in 2008 and 2009 with growth rates of 6.7% and 7.4%, respectively. Real disposable income is expected to grow an average of 4.5% from 2007 to 2009 after an energy- and housing-driven slowing of growth for 2006, which will come in at 2%. Energy prices have resulted in slowdowns of real disposable income growth during the past year. After a Katrina-induced deceleration to 1.5% in the 4th quarter of 2005, real disposable income growth again buckled under the burden of energy price surges in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2006. The slowdown in the 4th quarter of 2005 came at the expense of retailers, as consumers held back on their spending during the holiday shopping season. Real retail sales actually declined in the 4th quarter of 2005. Rising energy costs pinched household

F l o r i d a Summa r y

budgets at the end of the year. Fortunately, energy prices have retreated from these lofty heights, and the recent fall in prices will make this holiday season better than 2005. Retailers will once again be aggressive in pricing early in the holiday season. Despite lower energy bills, the slowing housing market will require retailers to be aggressive in pricing in order to part consumers from their money at a time when consumer sentiment has somewhat soured. Current dollar retail sales for the year are expected to hit $257 billion and are expected to rise to $294 billion by 2009. After two prolonged encounters with gasoline prices at or near the $3-per-gallon level, consumers have been shying away from purchases of trucks and SUVs. Vehicle fuel efficiency, rather than the size, has become an important characteristic for consumers. Auto manufacturers are again resorting to promotional discounts and 0% interest-rate financing as a way to address waning demand. While “employee discounts for everyone” was an effective tool to boost demand prior to the hurricanes, current incentives now attempt to stop the hemorrhaging of the bottom line of U.S. auto manufacturers. Foreign manufacturers of fuelefficient (hybrid and gasoline) vehicles are enjoying a rising market share at the expense of American firms. While we have not had to resort to rationing during the current energy crisis, as we did in the 1970s, current events must have an unsettling déjà vu feel for executives in America’s automotive industry.

E mp l o y me n t Payroll employment growth in the state was 3.9% for 2005 and is expected to grow by 3.1% in 2006; this figure is compared to national job growth of 1.5% and 1.4% for 2005 and 2006. For the next three years (2007 to 2009), employment growth should exceed that of the nation and average 2.3% in Florida. The Construction sector, which has seen torrid growth in recent years (average payroll employment of 10.7% during 2004 and 2005), will finally begin

to slow down in 2006 as a result of significant cooling in the housing market. In 2006, however, this sector will lead all others in employment growth at 7.8%. Construction will slow down to less than 1% growth in 2007 and 2008 before recovering to 3.2% growth in 2009. At this point, despite falling from dizzying heights, this sector should not experience job losses. The Professional and Business Services sector is another sector that is showing robust growth in Florida. 2005 growth came in at 6.3%, but we are forecasting this growth to decelerate to 3.4% in 2007 before rising to 6.5% in 2009. The Transportation, Warehousing, and Utility sector should see growth accelerate in 2008 and 2009, with growth of 3.2% and 3.5% in these years. This acceleration follows a slowing of growth in 2007 to 2%. The Transportation, Warehousing, and Utility sector growth has been hampered by volatile energy prices in the past year that resulted in employment growth dropping from 4.1% in 2005 to a forecast growth of 2.6% for 2006. As energy prices settle in the future this sector will resume its upward trend. Manufacturing, after taking a brief hiatus in 2004 and 2005 from its downward trend, will continue to contract in Florida and throughout the nation as well. Between 2006 and 2009, an additional 8,000 jobs will be lost. These losses will increase the number of manufacturing jobs lost over the 1999 to 2009 period to 77,000 jobs. Two factors driving the fall in manufacturing employment are increasing pressure from emerging economies and increased productivity of labor in this sector.

U n emp l o y me n t Unemployment rates in the state averaged 3.8% in 2005 and will declined to 3.1% in 2006 before rising gradually to 3.2% in 2008. Unemployment rates in the state will remain well below unemployment rates at the national level, which are expected to average 4.8% from 2007 to 2009.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Table 15. Government Receipts and Expenditures

1998

1999

2002

Receipts Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts Corp. Profits Tax Accruals Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Contributions for Social Insurance

1653.1 744.3 203.0 78.2 576.4

1773.8 825.8 204.3 81.1 613.8

1891.2 893.0 213.0 83.9 651.7

200

Expenditures Purchases Goods & Services National Defense Other Transfer Payments To Persons To Foreigners Grants in Aid to State & Local Gov't Net Interest Subsidies less Surplus of Gov't Entities Surplus (+) or Deficit (-)

1708.9 530.9 349.6 181.3 918.9 704.2 13.9 198.6 278.5 32.1 -55.8

1735.0 530.5 345.7 184.7 946.5 716.9 14.6 212.8 281.2 34.9 38.8

1787.6 555.8 360.6 195.2 986.1 735.7 15.2 232.9 264.7 44.1 103.6

750.0 182.0 34.1 533.8 10.8 198.6

794.9 201.2 34.9 558.8 10.4 212.8

840.4 214.5 35.8 590.2 9.8 232.9

893.2 236.6 35.6 621.1 11.0 247.3

915.8 242.7 30.2 642.8 13.7 276.1

929.0 221.3 32.2 675.5 15.8 304.6

979 226 35 717 19 338

1058.3 937.8 227.6 -0.1 -11.8 1.5 0.0 39.1

1111.2 987.9 235.8 -1.0 -9.8 1.7 0.0 52.0

1186.3 1065.0 252.4 -3.8 -10.0 1.8 0.0 50.4

1269.5 1142.8 271.7 -4.5 -7.1 1.9 0.0 50.0

1368.2 1212.8 305.2 5.2 3.6 2.0 0.0 4.8

1444.3 1281.5 332.0 16.5 -1.6 2.0 0.0 -34.2

1514 1336 353 24 0 2 0 -20

NoFederal v e mGovernment b e r 2 0 0Receipts 6 2053.9 999.1 219.5 87.8 691.7

2016.2 994.5 164.7 85.8 717.5

1853.2 830.5 150.5 87.3 734.3

1879 774 197 89 758

1864.4 578.8 370.3 208.5 1038.1 770.0 18.3 247.3 263.2 46.1 189.5

1969.5 612.9 392.6 220.3 1131.4 838.7 14.0 276.1 240.2 53.1 46.7

2101.1 679.7 437.1 242.5 1243.0 916.9 18.8 304.6 213.7 39.1 -248.0

2252 756 497 259 1328 963 23 338 196 45 -372

State and Local Government Rece Receipts Personal Tan/Nontax Receipts Corporate Profits Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Contributions for Social Insurance Federal Grants-In-Aid Expenditures Purchases Godds & Services Transfer Payments Interest Received Net Subsidies Dividends Received Net Wage Accruals Surplus (+) or Deficit (-)

t ab l e s

F l o r i d a F OR E C A ST

2000

History 2001

1997

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch) U.S. (%Ch) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch) U.S. (%Ch) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch)

372.1 5.9 6.1 391.2 4.1 7.1 343.4 3.2 3.5 391.5 6.6 414.7 4.3

402.5 8.2 7.3 419.3 7.2 10.4 366.7 6.8 5.8 417.2 6.6 435.6 5.0

423.8 5.3 5.1 434.3 3.6 8.6 379.7 3.5 3.0 442.6 6.1 453.3 4.1

457.5 8.0 8.0 457.5 5.3 8.6 398.2 4.9 4.8 471.3 6.5 471.3 4.0

478.6 4.6 3.5 468.8 2.5 6.6 410.3 3.0 1.9 497.4 5.5 484.9 2.9

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

3.1 2.8 5.0 4.9

2.7 2.2 4.5 4.5

2.3 1.8 4.0 4.2

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Personal Income and GSP 495.5 512.0 547.1 3.5 3.3 6.8 1.8 3.2 6.2 478.5 485.2 505.4 2.1 1.4 4.2 0.7 3.2 11.9 428.2 440.2 458.9 4.4 2.8 4.2 3.1 2.2 3.6 522.7 556.7 609.4 5.1 6.5 9.5 497.3 518.8 552.7 2.6 4.3 6.5

589.6 7.8 5.2 529.7 4.8 7.5 475.3 3.6 1.2 674.0 10.6 595.8 7.8

625.5 6.1 7.0 545.0 2.9 6.2 484.9 2.0 2.9 734.2 9.0 630.8 5.9

663.0 6.0 5.4 563.5 3.4 5.2 501.3 3.4 2.9 774.9 5.6 651.1 3.2

707.8 6.7 5.8 589.8 4.7 7.0 526.8 5.1 4.1 823.6 6.3 679.0 4.3

760.1 7.4 6.2 622.4 5.5 6.3 554.1 5.2 4.0 878.2 6.6 709.9 4.5

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) 2.3 0.7 -0.1 2.0 3.2 3.9 3.9 2.1 1.6 1.0 1.5 2.5 2.9 3.2 3.8 4.7 5.7 5.3 4.7 3.8 3.1 4.0 4.7 5.8 6.0 5.5 5.1 4.7

2.3 2.4 3.2 4.9

2.2 2.1 3.2 4.9

2.1 2.0 3.1 4.7

1.1 1.8 4.0 0.3 -0.5 -1.7 0.0 2.0 1.4 1.5 0.9 3.4 2.5 2.8 0.5 0.8 1.4

1.4 2.4 5.0 0.7 -1.1 -1.9 -0.6 3.2 1.7 2.9 1.5 5.4 2.2 2.4 1.2 0.7 1.7

1.5 2.7 1.9 3.2 -0.5 -0.8 -0.4 3.5 1.7 1.6 2.1 6.5 2.4 1.7 2.0 1.1 2.1

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. & Business Services Edu. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

Population (thous) (%Ch) Net Migration (thous.) (%Ch)

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

(%Ch)

Florida & Metro Forecast

2.6 3.7 -4.3 3.5 0.2 -0.2 0.4 2.9 4.7 1.8 3.1 12.1 3.0 2.7 4.4 0.4 1.7

2.6 3.5 -0.2 4.2 -0.8 -0.4 -1.1 4.3 3.6 3.3 6.5 7.9 2.5 2.0 8.0 0.0 1.5

2.4 2.9 -6.8 3.6 -0.8 -2.3 -0.1 1.5 1.1 2.7 2.7 9.1 0.8 1.9 8.5 0.1 1.3

2.2 3.7 -1.8 5.7 -0.1 -2.6 1.2 1.8 3.4 3.2 2.5 7.1 2.8 2.4 5.2 3.8 3.7

0.0 1.3 -7.8 3.7 -4.9 -6.4 -4.1 -0.9 -0.2 -0.4 1.4 2.7 3.1 1.8 0.3 -2.4 2.9

-1.1 0.1 -10.3 1.2 -6.0 -3.7 -7.2 -2.8 -0.2 -1.2 1.2 0.2 2.8 0.4 -5.6 0.4 1.7

-0.3 1.1 -1.2 4.2 -4.4 -3.4 -4.9 -3.2 0.5 -0.3 2.2 1.3 3.8 1.9 -3.6 3.4 1.1

1.1 3.4 0.2 10.4 0.2 -2.1 1.5 1.6 3.4 2.7 3.8 5.0 3.0 4.6 -2.0 0.4 1.4

1.5 3.9 1.3 11.0 0.9 -1.6 2.1 4.1 4.4 4.1 4.4 6.3 2.2 3.1 0.4 1.6 1.2

1.4 3.1 1.9 7.8 -0.3 -0.8 -0.1 2.6 2.8 2.3 3.0 4.9 2.8 3.6 0.8 1.2 1.7

Population and Migration 15,221.3 15,518.6 15,798.1 16,088.6 16,392.6 16,716.1 17,046.5 17,436.0 17,839.8 18,235.4 18,621.8 19,005.1 19,387.3 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 69.7 62.3 63.0 62.7 69.0 71.0 77.5 87.3 88.2 84.5 83.2 82.5 82.0 -3.1 -10.6 1.8 -0.5 10.2 3.2 9.6 14.1 1.1 -4.2 -1.6 -0.8 -0.6

141.3 98.5 42.8

150.6 108.5 42.1

163.4 112.3 51.1

158.4 110.9 47.5

168.0 124.7 43.3

3.1

1.3

1.2

3.3

3.1

183.1 133.9 49.2

Housing 208.3 158.9 49.4

238.7 182.5 56.2

272.5 211.5 61.0

239.0 187.3 51.7

204.1 159.4 44.7

198.8 152.5 46.4

194.1 148.4 45.7

Consumer Prices 1.5 2.9 2.8

4.7

5.3

2.9

1.9

1.7

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Chg Year Ago) U.S. (%Chg Year Ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Chg Year Ago) U.S. (%Chg Year Ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Chg Year Ago) U.S. (%Chg Year Ago) GSP (Bil. $) (%Chg Year Ago) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Chg Year Ago)

630.3 5.8 7.7 546.4 2.6 6.7 485.7 1.7 3.7 740.7 8.4 634.3 5.3

639.1 6.2 6.5 551.3 3.2 4.7 489.8 2.1 2.8 748.9 7.2 638.4 4.5

648.8 6.1 5.7 555.7 2.8 4.5 493.8 2.4 2.5 759.8 6.0 643.0 3.4

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

3.7 3.3 3.2 4.7

3.6 3.3 3.2 4.8

2.7 2.8 3.2 4.8

658.4 6.1 5.3 560.9 3.5 4.7 498.3 3.3 2.8 769.8 5.4 648.0 3.0

667.7 5.9 5.1 566.1 3.6 5.7 504.0 3.8 3.0 779.8 5.3 653.9 3.1

677.2 6.0 5.3 571.3 3.6 6.0 509.0 3.9 3.3 790.4 5.5 659.8 3.3

688.8 6.2 5.4 578.2 4.0 6.6 515.8 4.4 3.7 803.7 5.8 667.5 3.8

701.3 6.5 5.7 585.8 4.4 7.1 523.3 5.0 4.1 816.5 6.1 674.9 4.1

713.9 6.9 5.9 593.5 4.8 7.3 530.3 5.2 4.2 830.2 6.5 682.9 4.4

727.1 7.4 6.2 601.9 5.3 7.2 537.7 5.6 4.4 843.8 6.8 690.9 4.7

740.3 7.5 6.2 610.2 5.5 6.7 543.3 5.3 4.1 858.1 6.8 698.7 4.7

753.5 7.4 6.2 618.3 5.5 6.4 550.5 5.2 3.9 871.2 6.7 705.9 4.6

766.6 7.4 6.1 626.3 5.5 6.0 557.7 5.2 4.0 884.6 6.5 713.3 4.5

780.1 7.3 6.1 634.7 5.5 6.0 565.1 5.1 4.0 898.9 6.5 721.6 4.4

2.2 2.1 3.2 4.8

2.2 2.1 3.1 4.7

2.1 2.0 3.1 4.7

2.1 2.0 3.1 4.6

1.6 2.8 4.1 2.7 -0.8 -1.1 -0.7 3.4 1.6 2.1 1.7 6.9 2.6 1.6 2.6 0.7 2.3

1.5 2.8 2.6 3.2 -0.5 -0.8 -0.4 3.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 6.7 2.6 1.4 1.9 0.7 2.2

1.5 2.7 1.1 3.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.2 3.6 1.8 1.4 2.2 6.3 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.1 2.1

1.4 2.6 -0.4 3.5 -0.3 -0.6 -0.2 3.6 1.9 1.0 2.4 6.1 2.0 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.0

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) 2.1 2.3 3.2 4.9

2.2 2.3 3.3 5.0

2.1 2.2 3.3 5.0

2.2 2.2 3.2 5.0

2.2 2.1 3.2 4.9

2.2 2.1 3.2 4.8

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. & Business Services Edu. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

1.3 2.9 1.9 7.4 -1.1 -1.6 -0.8 3.0 2.6 1.8 2.8 4.6 2.9 3.6 0.6 1.5 1.5

1.3 2.4 3.0 5.4 -0.9 -1.2 -0.7 1.9 1.7 1.4 2.2 4.2 2.7 2.7 0.9 1.5 1.1

1.1 2.0 2.6 2.4 -0.6 -1.4 -0.2 2.1 1.8 0.9 1.4 3.4 2.9 2.2 1.1 1.4 1.4

1.0 1.8 4.1 0.4 -0.7 -1.4 -0.3 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.0 3.2 2.5 2.8 0.9 0.7 1.5

1.0 1.7 4.7 -0.9 -0.3 -1.7 0.3 2.0 1.1 1.8 0.6 3.4 2.3 3.1 0.4 0.4 1.3

1.1 1.9 4.7 -0.8 -0.5 -2.1 0.2 2.4 1.3 2.2 0.6 3.6 2.2 3.0 -0.2 0.6 1.4

1.2 2.1 4.8 -0.5 -1.1 -2.3 -0.6 3.1 1.6 2.9 1.2 4.4 1.9 3.0 -0.1 0.7 1.3

1.3 2.3 5.2 0.1 -1.0 -2.2 -0.4 3.2 1.7 3.0 1.4 5.0 2.1 2.7 0.8 0.7 1.3

1.4 2.5 5.1 1.4 -1.1 -1.8 -0.7 3.3 1.7 2.9 1.7 5.7 2.4 1.9 1.5 0.7 1.9

1.5 2.8 4.9 2.0 -1.0 -1.4 -0.9 3.3 1.7 2.8 1.7 6.5 2.5 1.9 2.5 0.7 2.1

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Chg Year Ago) Net Migration (thous.) (%Chg Year Ago)

18,284.1 18,380.6 18,477.3 18,574.4 18,669.9 18,765.6 18,861.5 18,957.6 19,052.9 19,148.5 19,244.2 19,340.1 19,435.0 19,530.1 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 83.7 83.5 83.8 84.0 82.3 82.6 82.7 82.9 82.1 82.2 82.4 82.5 81.5 81.7 -4.9 -4.1 -2.6 -1.0 -1.7 -1.1 -1.2 -1.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.7 -0.7 Housing

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

221.8 173.9 47.9

214.2 169.0 45.2

209.8 164.4 45.4

203.2 160.1 43.1

202.0 157.2 44.7

201.6 155.8 45.8

5.2

4.5

3.6

2.9

2.5

2.4

200.4 154.3 46.1

199.4 153.0 46.5

198.2 151.8 46.4

197.3 150.7 46.6

196.4 149.7 46.7

194.5 148.6 45.9

193.1 148.0 45.2

192.4 147.5 44.9

1.9

1.8

1.7

Consumer Prices (%Chg Year Ago)

2.1

2.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 3. Employment Quarterly 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2009Q3 2009Q4 Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

8,076.0 8,107.2 8,139.3 8,177.7 8,215.8 8,257.4 8,309.4 8,365.3 8,424.2 8,486.0 8,545.1 8,598.3 8,651.4 8,710.1 8,424.2 8,486.0

Manufacturing

396.6

396.8

397.8

395.9

395.3

394.7

393.3

392.0

391.1

390.6

390.2

390.0

389.8

389.4

391.1

390.6

Durable Goods

267.6

268.1

269.5

268.2

268.5

268.7

268.0

267.1

266.6

266.4

266.1

266.0

265.9

266.6

266.4

Wood Products

18.5

18.4

18.3

18.2

18.1

18.0

17.9

18.1

Computer & Electronics

50.6

50.9

50.2

49.3

48.7

48.3

48.0

47.7

47.5

47.3

47.2

47.1

47.5

47.3

Transportation Equipment Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

1,756.9 1,733.3 1,735.2 1,722.7 1,739.5 1,744.8 1,740.1 1,734.8 1,733.7 1,739.4 1,753.2 1,774.8 1,795.0 1,810.4 1,733.7 1,739.4 129.0

128.7

128.3

127.7

126.8

126.0

125.4

124.9

124.5

124.2

124.0

123.9

123.7

123.5

124.5

124.2

32.0

31.9

31.7

31.5

31.2

31.0

31.1

31.2

31.0

7,679.4 7,710.4 7,741.5 7,781.8 7,820.5 7,862.7 7,916.1 7,973.2 8,033.1 8,095.5 8,154.9 8,208.3 8,261.7 8,320.6 8,033.1 8,095.5 7.4

7.4

7.5

7.6

7.7

7.8

7.9

8.0

8.1

8.2

8.1

8.2

Construction

625.7

625.8

624.7

622.6

619.8

620.6

621.5

623.1

628.4

632.8

638.2

643.4

649.2

655.2

628.4

632.8

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

249.7

250.7

251.2

253.0

254.7

256.8

259.0

261.1

263.1

265.3

267.8

270.3

272.5

274.7

263.1

265.3

Wholesale Trade

349.4

350.3

350.9

352.1

353.4

354.9

356.7

358.0

359.4

360.8

362.5

363.9

365.8

367.8

359.4

360.8

Retail Trade Information

1,007.8 1,011.2 1,013.1 1,018.3 1,025.4 1,033.5 1,042.3 1,049.0 1,055.5 1,062.8 1,064.6 1,068.0 1,069.9 1,073.2 1,055.5 1,062.8 170.3

Prof. & Business Services

170.4

170.8

171.4

171.0

170.1

170.7

172.7

173.6

174.3

175.1

176.0

176.8

177.4

173.6

174.3

1,393.3 1,402.9 1,412.4 1,426.9 1,440.3 1,454.0 1,474.8 1,498.1 1,521.8 1,547.9 1,576.4 1,597.8 1,618.0 1,642.9 1,521.8 1,547.9

Admin. & Support

861.2

864.5

868.7

876.0

881.5

888.0

901.8

918.9

935.9

955.3

977.0

992.4 1,006.8 1,025.9

935.9

955.3

Prof. Sci & Tech

456.5

462.4

467.4

474.2

481.9

488.9

495.5

501.3

507.4

513.6

519.9

525.5

530.9

536.1

507.4

513.6

75.6

76.0

76.3

76.6

76.9

77.2

77.5

78.0

78.5

79.1

79.5

79.9

80.4

80.9

78.5

79.1

Financial Activities

543.6

545.2

546.2

546.7

548.6

551.9

553.6

555.7

558.0

561.5

564.3

567.8

571.6

555.7

558.0

Real Estate & Rent

177.7

178.2

178.7

179.2

179.7

180.4

181.2

181.9

182.6

183.3

183.9

184.7

185.4

186.1

182.6

183.3

Fin. & Insurance

366.0

367.0

366.5

367.0

366.9

368.2

370.7

371.7

373.1

374.7

377.6

379.6

382.4

385.5

373.1

374.7

Edu. & Health Service

969.0

974.9

983.5

986.0

991.2

996.4 1,002.1 1,006.7 1,014.7 1,021.4 1,028.3 1,033.3 1,037.8 1,042.0 1,014.7 1,021.4

Education Services

128.3

128.7

128.9

129.2

129.6

129.9

130.3

130.9

131.5

132.1

132.8

133.5

133.9

134.4

131.5

132.1

Health Services

840.7

846.2

854.6

856.8

861.6

866.5

871.8

875.8

883.2

889.3

895.5

899.9

903.9

907.6

883.2

889.3

Leisure & Hospitality

922.8

927.5

933.0

941.9

951.1

955.5

960.8

967.7

969.5

973.4

976.5

981.7

986.7

991.1

969.5

973.4

Other Services

340.3

341.7

342.5

344.6

346.1

347.5

348.4

349.7

350.7

351.4

352.2

353.2

354.2

355.1

350.7

351.4

Mgmt. of Co.

Government

1,099.9 1,102.5 1,106.7 1,111.3 1,113.1 1,117.0 1,120.0 1,125.4 1,132.7 1,139.1 1,143.7 1,148.4 1,154.7 1,161.5 1,132.7 1,139.1

Federal Gov't.

130.9

131.0

131.2

131.4

131.7

131.9

132.1

State & Local Gov't

969.0

971.6

975.7

980.1

981.7

985.4

988.1

993.3 1,000.3 1,006.5 1,010.8 1,015.3 1,020.8 1,026.2 1,000.3 1,006.5

Florida & Metro Forecast

132.4

132.6

132.9

133.1

133.8

135.2

132.4

132.6

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 4. Employment Annual 1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

6,413.9 6,635.9 6,826.7 7,080.3 7,171.0 7,180.2 7,261.6 7,510.4 7,805.4 8,050.5 8,197.6 8,396.2 8,626.2

Manufacturing

470.8

466.9

463.0

462.5

439.9

413.2

395.0

395.9

399.4

398.0

395.9

391.8

389.8

Durable Goods

306.7

303.4

303.2

306.9

294.3

273.0

259.6

263.4

269.0

268.7

267.0

266.0

16.2

16.8

16.7

17.2

18.1

17.6

18.2

18.6

18.3

18.1

17.9

76.0

69.8

67.6

69.7

67.2

59.1

52.8

51.9

51.2

50.8

49.1

47.6

47.1

Wood Products Computer & Electronics Transportation Equipment Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

2,026.3 2,077.0 2,087.1 2,055.6 1,937.8 1,828.9 1,774.0 1,765.7 1,772.3 1,762.3 1,735.6 1,737.0 1,783.3 164.1

163.5

159.8

155.6

145.6

140.2

135.4

132.5

130.4

129.3

127.2

124.7

123.8

38.1

37.1

36.8

36.1

34.6

33.5

32.7

31.9

32.0

31.4

31.0

31.1

5,943.0 6,168.9 6,363.7 6,617.8 6,731.1 6,767.0 6,866.6 7,114.6 7,406.0 7,652.4 7,801.6 8,004.5 8,236.4 9.5

9.5

8.9

8.7

8.0

7.2

7.1

7.2

7.4

7.7

8.0

8.2

Construction

376.2

392.0

406.1

429.4

445.2

450.7

469.8

518.6

575.8

620.4

621.9

626.4

646.5

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

228.2

237.9

241.5

245.9

243.8

236.9

229.2

232.8

242.4

248.8

253.9

262.1

271.3

Wholesale Trade

289.9

300.3

303.4

313.7

312.9

312.2

313.8

324.5

338.6

348.1

352.8

358.7

365.0

Retail Trade

856.2

884.3

908.4

937.9

934.5

923.1

920.7

946.0

984.4 1,007.4 1,022.6 1,052.4 1,068.9

Information

152.4

164.6

178.6

187.9

188.3

177.8

171.3

167.9

168.6

Prof. & Business Services

169.9

170.8

172.8

176.3

900.7

971.6 1,060.3 1,135.9 1,166.7 1,168.8 1,184.2 1,243.5 1,321.0 1,386.3 1,433.4 1,510.7 1,608.8

Admin. & Support

545.9

594.7

663.4

714.8

733.4

728.8

735.2

772.1

822.7

858.3

878.6

928.0 1,000.5

Prof. Sci & Tech

300.7

318.5

336.3

361.8

371.2

374.7

382.8

402.0

427.0

452.6

478.1

504.4

528.1

54.0

58.5

60.7

59.3

62.1

65.3

66.2

69.4

71.3

75.4

76.7

78.3

80.2

Financial Activities

413.3

440.1

451.8

463.0

469.3

474.9

485.6

504.1

526.3

541.9

546.7

554.8

566.3

Real Estate & Rent

131.1

133.8

138.0

143.5

147.0

150.2

153.5

162.2

171.2

177.3

179.5

182.2

185.1

Fin. & Insurance

282.2

306.3

313.8

319.5

322.3

324.7

332.1

341.9

355.1

364.6

367.2

372.6

381.3

Edu. & Health Service

764.3

783.2

789.1

811.4

836.5

859.6

892.3

919.4

939.6

965.4

989.3 1,011.2 1,035.3

76.2

80.5

84.7

91.5

94.5

99.7

108.2

116.9

123.3

127.8

129.4

131.2

133.7

Health Services

688.1

702.7

704.4

719.8

742.0

759.9

784.0

802.5

816.3

837.6

859.9

880.0

901.7

Leisure & Hospitality

741.8

757.0

771.2

789.8

804.1

807.5

823.2

860.9

887.9

919.9

945.4

967.9

984.0

Other Services

268.2

273.7

278.8

292.9

298.5

309.2

316.2

323.3

334.3

339.6

345.2

350.1

353.7

Government

942.2

954.7

965.5 1,001.4 1,023.2 1,039.2 1,053.2 1,066.3 1,079.9 1,097.4 1,112.0 1,129.3 1,152.0

Federal Gov't.

120.4

120.5

125.0

121.7

122.2

126.3

126.8

128.8

130.3

131.3

132.3

State & Local Gov't

821.8

834.3

845.0

876.4

901.5

917.0

926.9

939.6

951.1

967.1

980.7

997.0 1,018.3

Mgmt. of Co.

Education Services

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

133.8

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s

Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

630.3

639.1

648.8

658.4

667.7

677.2

688.8

701.3

713.9

727.1

740.3

753.5

766.6

780.1

Wages & Salaries

325.4

329.4

333.6

337.7

342.1

346.8

352.7

358.5

364.4

370.7

377.2

383.2

389.1

395.5

Other Labor Income

75.1

75.9

77.0

77.9

78.7

79.5

80.4

81.5

82.6

83.6

84.7

85.8

86.7

87.6

Nonfarm

40.8

41.5

42.2

42.8

43.6

44.3

45.2

46.1

46.9

47.7

48.6

49.4

50.1

51.0

0.4

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.3

0.4

0.3

Property Income

132.8

135.1

138.0

140.5

142.6

144.8

147.5

151.0

154.7

158.6

162.6

166.7

170.8

174.7

Transfer Payments

Farm

103.9

105.6

107.3

109.2

111.0

112.8

114.7

116.6

118.5

120.5

122.6

124.6

126.8

129.0

Social Insurance

49.9

50.6

51.4

51.9

52.6

53.2

54.0

54.7

55.6

56.4

57.5

58.4

59.3

60.1

Personal Income

546.4

551.3

555.7

560.9

566.1

571.3

578.2

585.8

593.5

601.9

610.2

618.3

626.3

634.7

Wages & Salaries

282.1

284.1

285.8

287.7

290.1

292.6

296.1

299.5

303.0

306.9

310.8

314.4

317.9

321.8

Other Labor Income

65.1

65.5

65.9

66.3

66.7

67.1

67.5

68.1

68.6

69.2

69.8

70.4

70.9

71.3

Nonfarm

35.4

35.8

36.1

36.5

36.9

37.4

37.9

38.5

39.0

39.5

40.0

40.5

41.0

41.5

0.4

0.3

0.4

0.3

115.2

116.6

118.2

119.7

120.9

122.1

123.8

126.1

128.6

131.3

134.0

136.8

139.5

142.2

Transfer Payments

90.1

91.1

91.9

93.0

94.1

95.1

96.3

97.4

98.5

99.7

101.0

102.3

103.6

105.0

Social Insurance

43.3

43.6

44.0

44.3

44.6

44.9

45.3

45.7

46.2

46.7

47.4

47.9

48.4

48.9

Billions 2000 Dollars

Farm Property Income

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

1,471.2

1,443.8

1,445.4

1,446.7

1,459.7

1,459.8

1,463.2

1,455.3

1,455.5

1,454.1

1,450.5

1,452.1

1,450.6

1,453.9

Retail Sales (Billions $)

258.2

260.4

263.0

265.1

268.0

271.3

274.8

278.0

281.6

285.3

288.6

292.3

295.9

300.3

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

223.9

224.6

225.3

225.9

227.2

228.9

230.7

232.2

234.1

236.2

237.9

239.9

241.7

244.4

Florida & Metro Forecast

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

372.1

402.5

423.8

457.5

478.6

495.5

512.0

547.1

589.6

625.5

663.0

707.8

760.1

Wages & Salaries

181.3

197.2

210.1

228.4

239.2

247.1

258.5

278.8

305.3

322.8

340.1

361.6

386.2

Other Labor Income

37.6

39.9

42.5

45.1

47.6

51.8

56.4

62.8

70.3

74.7

78.3

82.0

86.2

Nonfarm

19.1

21.3

25.9

29.2

27.6

29.0

30.7

32.8

37.0

40.2

43.2

46.5

49.8

Farm

1.2

1.5

2.0

0.8

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.5

0.6

0.4

0.3

Property Income

99.5

109.4

117.9

122.9

122.0

118.2

118.4

123.0

131.4

141.5

153.0

168.7

Transfer Payments

59.6

61.2

63.7

67.9

74.4

80.4

84.9

94.1

97.8

103.3

110.1

117.6

125.7

Social Insurance

27.2

29.2

31.1

33.3

35.5

37.1

39.1

42.1

46.0

49.3

52.3

55.2

58.8

Billions 2000 Dollars Personal Income

391.2

419.3

434.3

457.5

468.8

478.5

485.2

505.4

529.7

545.0

563.5

589.8

622.4

Wages & Salaries

190.5

205.5

215.3

228.4

234.3

238.6

245.0

257.5

274.2

281.2

289.0

301.4

316.2

Other Labor Income

39.5

41.6

43.5

45.1

46.6

50.1

53.5

58.0

63.1

65.1

66.5

68.4

70.6

Nonfarm

20.1

22.2

26.5

29.2

27.1

28.1

29.1

30.3

33.3

35.0

36.7

38.7

40.7

Farm

1.2

1.6

2.1

0.8

0.9

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.3

104.5

113.9

112.1

117.9

120.4

117.8

112.0

109.4

110.5

114.5

120.2

127.5

138.1

Transfer Payments

62.7

63.7

65.3

67.9

72.8

77.6

80.5

86.9

87.9

90.0

93.5

98.0

103.0

Social Insurance

28.6

30.5

31.9

33.3

34.8

35.9

37.0

38.9

41.3

43.0

44.4

46.0

48.2

Property Income

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

1,181.0 1,199.9 1,253.1 1,314.0 1,405.3 1,302.2 1,397.6 1,443.7 1,450.0 1,481.8 1,452.9 1,457.0 1,451.8

Retail Sales (Billions $)

155.3

162.4

174.6

184.5

190.4

196.6

204.5

218.9

239.6

256.7

266.8

279.9

294.3

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

163.2

169.3

179.0

184.5

186.5

189.9

193.8

202.2

215.2

223.7

226.8

233.3

241.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Florida Education & Services Employ 1050.0 1000.0

No v e m b e r 2 0 0 6

950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0 750.0 700.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

C H A RTS

F l o r i d a F OR E C A ST

(Thousands)

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

(%)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate

Florida Gross State Product (% change year ago)

12% 10% 8% 6% 4%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 FL Gross State Product

Florida & Metro Forecast

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Housing Starts 300.0

(thousands)

8.5% 8.0%

250.0

7.5% 7.0%

200.0

6.5% 6.0%

150.0 100.0

5.5% 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Total Private Housing Starts 30 year Mortgage Rates

5.0%

Florida Personal Income 10%

(% change year ago)

8% 6% 4% 2%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations (% change year ago)

30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Florida Real Gross State Product (% change year ago)

9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Florida & Metro Forecast

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Employment 9000.0

(Thousands)

8500.0 8000.0 7500.0 7000.0 6500.0 6000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Wage & Salary Employment

Florida Education & Health Services Employment 1050.0

(Thousands)

1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0 750.0 700.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Federal Government Employment (Thousands)

140.0 135.0 130.0 125.0 120.0 115.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Florida Financial Activities Employment (Thousands)

600.0 550.0 500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Florida & Metro Forecast

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Information Employment 200.0

(Thousands)

190.0 180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Florida Manufacturing Employment 480.0

(Thousands)

460.0 440.0 420.0 400.0 380.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Construction Employment (Thousands)

700.0 650.0 600.0 550.0 500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Florida Professional & Business Services Employment (Thousands)

1800.0 1600.0 1400.0 1200.0 1000.0 800.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Florida & Metro Forecast

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida State & Local Government Employment 1050.0

(Thousands)

1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment 1800.0

(Thousands)

1700.0 1600.0 1500.0 1400.0 1300.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

me t r o s

O c tvoe bmebr e2r 020060 6 No

F l o r i d a F OR E C A ST

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

The Deltona – Daytona Beach – Ormond Beach MSA is comprised of Volusia County only. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for the special events that occur throughout the year. The area has: • Population estimate of 475,189 for 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A labor force of 250,624 in August 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database). • Unemployment in August 2006 at 3.3%, (Florida Regional Economic Database).

F r o m t he B u s i n e s s P age s • According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Flagler County (neighbor to Volusia County) is reported to have the highest population growth rate in the nation for the second year in a row. Source: Orlando Business Journal, August 21, 2006

• Mercedes Homes is beginning development of 72 home sites in Deltona. Source: Orlando Business Journal, October 6, 2006

Sh o r t - Te r m Ou t l o o k Personal income is expected to grow, on average, at 6.6% annually over the next three years, which is on par with personal-income growth for Florida. Employment growth is predicted at 2.1% annually. Although modest, this figure is the expected median employment growth for the state. The Leisure and Hospitality sector generates regional employment growth, which is estimated to increase by 3.1% annually from 2006 to 2009. Professional and Business Services and Construction and Mining will contribute significantly to positive employment growth at annual rates of 2.9% and 2.6%, respectively, from 2006 to 2009. Unemployment for the region will continue to hover just below the state’s expected 3.2% unemployment rate. The population growth in the region will average 2.2% annually and will slightly outpace statewide expectations.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

De l t o n a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Da y t o n a B each â&#x20AC;&#x201C; O r m o n d B each Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach, MSA Employment Distribution Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0.0

Florida & Deltona Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

(percent)

0.3

1.2

1.5

16000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

14000.0 12000.0 10000.0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

190.0

8000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Gross Metro Product

Deltona Real Personal Income 6.0%

(percent change year ago)

5.0%

180.0

4.0%

170.0

3.0%

160.0

2.0%

150.0

1.0%

140.0

0.9

Deltona Real Gross Metro Product

Deltona Payroll Employment

130.0

0.6

0.0% 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Deltona Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast

-1.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Personal Income

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

November 2006 Short-Term Forecast 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

14.4 6 5.8 8.6 12.5 2.8 28.6 24.8 32.4 2.2

14.6 5.9 5.8 8.8 12.6 2.9 28.8 24.9 32.6 3.8

14.8 6 5.9 8.9 12.7 2.8 29.1 25 32.9 3.8

15.1 6.4 5.9 9.1 12.8 3.7 29.5 25.1 33.2 3.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

176.9 2.3 10.1 -1.2 166.7 2.5 14.8 6.8 34.1 1.8 4.9 26.7 2.4 2.8 3 7.3 1 21.3 1.2 31.5 1.7 23.2 5.6 8.5 2.4 1.4 0.5 21.9 0.5

177.4 1.8 10.1 -1.6 167.3 2 14.8 5 34.2 1.4 4.9 26.8 2.4 2.8 2.2 7.3 0.6 21.4 1.1 31.6 2.7 23.3 3.7 8.5 1 1.4 1.3 21.9 0.4

177.9 0.9 10.2 -0.7 167.7 1 14.7 1.7 34.4 0.7 4.9 26.8 2.4 2.8 0.1 7.3 0.1 21.4 1 31.8 1.6 23.4 1.5 8.5 -1.1 1.4 1.1 22 1.2

178.5 1.4 10.1 -0.3 168.4 1.5 14.7 0 34.6 1.9 4.9 27 2.5 2.9 2.6 7.3 0.4 21.4 0.5 31.8 1.8 23.7 3.1 8.5 1 1.4 1 22.1 1.3

15.3 6.3 6 9.3 12.9 3.9 29.7 25.2 33.4 3.3

15.5 6.3 6.1 9.4 13.1 3.9 30 25.3 33.7 3.2

15.8 6.3 6.2 9.6 13.2 4.2 30.4 25.5 34 3.4

16 6.6 6.3 9.8 13.4 4.5 30.8 25.7 34.4 3.6

16.3 7 6.4 10 13.6 4.9 31.2 25.9 34.7 3.8

16.6 7.3 6.5 10.2 13.8 5.3 31.5 26.1 35 3.9

16.9 7.3 6.6 10.3 13.9 5.4 31.9 26.3 35.4 3.9

17.2 7.3 6.7 10.5 14.1 5.4 32.3 26.5 35.7 3.9

17.5 7.3 6.8 10.8 14.3 5.4 32.7 26.7 36 4

17.8 7.3 6.9 11 14.5 5.4 33.1 26.9 36.4 3.9

179.2 1.3 10.1 0 169 1.4 14.6 -1.8 34.8 2.2 4.9 27.2 2.5 2.9 1.7 7.4 0.3 21.5 0.9 31.9 1.5 23.9 3.3 8.6 1.3 1.4 0.7 22.1 1.1

179.9 1.4 10.1 -0.2 169.8 1.5 14.6 -1.6 35.1 2.4 5 27.5 2.5 2.8 0.9 7.4 0.6 21.6 1.2 32 1.4 24 3.2 8.6 1.3 1.4 0.9 22.2 1.3

180.8 1.6 10.1 -0.7 170.7 1.8 14.6 -0.7 35.3 2.7 5 27.7 2.5 2.9 0.8 7.4 1 21.8 2.2 32.2 1.2 24.2 3.2 8.6 1.4 1.4 0.9 22.3 1.3

181.8 1.8 10.1 -0.6 171.7 2 14.6 -0.4 35.5 2.8 5 27.9 2.5 2.9 1.8 7.4 1.1 22.1 3.2 32.3 1.6 24.4 2.9 8.6 1.2 1.4 1 22.4 1.5

182.9 2.1 10.1 -0.7 172.8 2.2 14.7 0.8 35.7 2.6 5 28.1 2.6 2.9 2.6 7.4 1.3 22.4 4.1 32.6 2 24.4 2 8.7 1.2 1.4 1 22.6 2.1

184 2.2 10.1 -0.7 173.9 2.4 14.8 1.3 35.9 2.5 5.1 28.3 2.6 2.9 3.7 7.5 1.1 22.7 5.1 32.7 2.1 24.5 1.9 8.7 1 1.4 1 22.7 2.4

184.9 2.3 10.1 -0.4 174.8 2.4 14.9 1.8 36 2 5.1 28.4 2.6 3 3.7 7.5 1.4 23.1 5.7 32.9 2.4 24.6 1.6 8.7 1 1.4 -4.1 22.8 2.4

185.9 2.3 10.1 -0.1 175.9 2.4 15 2.7 36.1 1.7 5.1 28.5 2.6 3 2.7 7.5 1.5 23.4 5.7 33.1 2.4 24.7 1.4 8.7 0.9 1.4 -0.7 22.9 2.2

186.9 2.2 10.1 0.2 176.8 2.3 15.2 3.1 36.2 1.4 5.2 28.6 2.7 3 2.6 7.6 1.6 23.6 5.4 33.2 1.9 24.8 1.7 8.7 0.9 1.5 3.2 23 1.9

187.8 2.1 10.1 0.2 177.7 2.2 15.3 3.4 36.3 1 5.2 28.7 2.7 3 2.5 7.6 1.9 23.9 5.3 33.3 1.7 24.9 1.6 8.8 1 1.5 7.6 23.1 1.8

13750.1 13828.2 13906.8 14000.9 14115.4 14235.5 14391.7 14542.3 14706.5 14871.5 15025.3 15183.4 15344.3 15520.6 503.2 505.7 508.3 511 513.6 516.2 518.8 521.5 524.4 527.1 529.9 532.8 536 539.1 2.1 2 2 2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 248.9 250.6 252.2 253.8 255.3 256.7 258.1 259.6 261 262.4 263.7 265.1 266.4 267.8 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 3 3 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3 5100 5111 5193 5161 5218 5253 5231 5215 5189 5159 5118 5077 5046 5031 4109 4219 4270 4267 4278 4292 4289 4275 4263 4231 4193 4162 4146 4135 990 892 923 894 940 960 942 939 926 928 925 915 900 895

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

November 2006 Short-Term Forecast 1999 Personal Income (Billions $)

9.6 4.7 3.6 6 9.9 3 21.9 22.5 24.9 4.9

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

10.4 7.7 3.9 6.5 10.4 5.1 23.3 23.3 26 4.7

10.9 5.5 4 6.9 10.7 3.3 24.2 23.7 26.7 2.5

11.4 3.7 4.3 7.1 11 2.3 24.7 23.8 27.7 4

11.7 3.2 4.6 7.2 11.1 1.3 25 23.7 28.6 3.3

12.5 6.7 4.9 7.6 11.6 4 26 24.1 29.7 3.9

13.4 7.5 5.4 8 12.1 4.5 27.4 24.6 31.3 5.3

14.3 6.1 5.7 8.6 12.4 3 28.4 24.8 32.2 2.8

15.2 6.2 6 9.2 12.9 3.6 29.6 25.1 33.3 3.4

16.2 6.8 6.3 9.9 13.5 4.7 31 25.8 34.5 3.7

17.4 7.3 6.7 10.7 14.2 5.4 32.5 26.6 35.9 3.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

Florida & Metro Forecast

143.7 1.3 10.4 -6.8 133.3 2 7.9 0.8 30.3 2.1 4.3 23.5 2.6 3 36.6 6.8 0 13.3 3.8 25.3 3.4 18.8 -1.1 6.8 1.6 1.3 5.3 19.6 -1.1

147.5 2.7 10.9 5.1 136.6 2.5 8.3 5.4 31.3 3.4 4.4 24.2 2.7 3.1 4.1 6.8 -0.6 13.3 0 25.9 2.3 19.2 2.3 7.1 5.1 1.5 12.5 19.9 1.3

150.3 1.9 10.3 -5.6 140 2.5 8.8 5.8 31 -1 4.4 23.9 2.7 3.4 7.4 6.6 -3.4 15.8 18.1 26.2 1.2 19.4 0.9 7.1 -0.1 1.3 -10.1 20.4 2.5

153.2 1.9 9.6 -7.3 143.6 2.6 9.6 9.3 30.8 -0.6 4.7 23.6 2.6 3 -10.4 6.4 -2.3 16.4 3.8 28.2 7.7 19.6 0.8 7.6 6.8 1.4 2.5 20.6 0.9

158 3.1 9.4 -1.5 148.5 3.5 10.5 8.7 31.4 1.6 4.6 24.3 2.5 2.8 -6.3 6.5 1.2 17.4 6.3 30.1 6.7 20 2.2 7.9 2.9 1.4 2.5 20.7 0.5

164.8 4.3 9.8 3.9 155 4.4 11.9 14 31.9 1.8 4.7 25 2.2 2.8 -2.1 6.9 7.2 19.1 9.8 30.7 1.9 21.1 5.3 8.2 4 1.4 0 21.1 2.1

171.8 4.2 10.2 3.8 161.6 4.3 13.7 14.5 33.2 4.2 4.8 26.2 2.3 2.7 -1.8 7.2 3.5 21 10.1 30.7 0 21.9 4 8.2 0.2 1.4 0 21.6 2.7

176.7 2.8 10.2 0.1 166.5 3 14.7 7.7 34.1 2.6 4.9 26.8 2.4 2.8 3.2 7.3 1.9 21.3 1.4 31.4 2.3 23.1 5.6 8.5 3.7 1.4 0.5 21.8 0.8

178.9 1.3 10.1 -0.3 168.7 1.4 14.6 -0.4 34.7 1.8 4.9 27.1 2.5 2.8 1.3 7.4 0.3 21.5 0.9 31.9 1.6 23.8 2.8 8.5 0.6 1.4 0.9 22.1 1.2

182.4 1.9 10.1 -0.7 172.3 2.1 14.7 0.2 35.6 2.6 5 28 2.5 2.9 2.2 7.4 1.1 22.3 3.6 32.4 1.7 24.4 2.5 8.6 1.2 1.4 1 22.5 1.8

186.4 2.2 10.1 0 176.3 2.3 15.1 2.8 36.2 1.5 5.1 28.5 2.6 3 2.9 7.6 1.6 23.5 5.5 33.1 2.1 24.7 1.6 8.7 1 1.5 1.5 22.9 2.1

9545.2 439.3 1.4 181.5 0.2 3.2 3903 3416 487

9860.1 445.8 1.5 209.7 15.5 3.4 3641 3195 446

10235.7 452.5 1.5 214.6 2.3 4.3 4506 3441 1065

10626.5 460.3 1.7 219.6 2.3 5.4 4891 4220 671

11203.2 469.2 1.9 226.5 3.1 5.1 6324 5077 1248

12008.4 480.3 2.4 233.5 3.1 4.5 6319 4868 1451

12982.2 491.4 2.3 240.1 2.8 3.6 6455 5208 1247

13692.1 502 2.2 248 3.3 2.9 5219 4121 1098

14064.7 512.3 2.1 254.5 2.6 3.1 5206 4277 929

14628 523 2.1 260.3 2.3 3.1 5199 4265 934

15268.4 534.4 2.2 265.8 2.1 3.1 5068 4159 909

G ai n e s v i l l e

The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua County and Gilchrist County. It is located in the north/central portion of the state and is home to the University of Florida Gators. The area has: • MSA’s population estimate of 224,719 for 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Alachua County’s population estimate of 210,323 for 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Gilchrist County’s population estimate of 14,396 for 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A labor force of 128,559 in August 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database). • Unemployment in August of 2006 at 3.1% (Florida Regional Economic Database).

Sh o r t - Te r m Ou t l o o k Personal income is expected to grow, on average, at 5.7% annually over the next three years, which is one of the lowest personal-income growth predictions in the state. Employment growth is predicted at 1.7% annually. Professional and Business Services will lead employment growth for the region with a predicted 3.3% annual (2006 – 2009) growth rate while the Leisure and Hospitality sector is estimated to increase by 3.2% annually from 2006 through 2009. Construction and Mining is predicted to increase at 2.1% annually, despite an expected 4% annual decrease in housing starts. Unemployment for the region should hold at 2.7% and is the lowest estimate within the state. The population growth in the region will average 0.9% annually.

F r o m t he B u s i n e s s P age s • Forty-four life science, medical device, and biotech companies, which employ more than 1,000 workers, exist in Alachua County. Source: Gainesville Sun, September 24, 2006

• Progress Park is home to 30 biotech companies; the park has enjoyed steady growth since its opening in 1988. Source: Gainesville Sun, September 24, 2006

• The Florida Communities Trust awarded $13 million to three projects spanning 3,400 acres. This represents 17% of the total awarded throughout the state. Source: The Gainesville Sun, September 17, 2006

• Two hundred and sixteen acres were donated to the University of Florida Foundation and will be sold for $1 million. • The $1 million sale will be matched by state funds, making $2 million available for research, technology, and teaching. Source: The Gainesville Sun, September 17, 2006

• Up to twelve Dunkin’ Donut shops are planned to open in Gainesville. The first opening is expected in February 2007. Source: The Gainesville Sun, September 9, 2006

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

G ai n e s v i l l e

• The largest electrical utility in the state (FPL) is planning to build a coal-fired power plant (Glades County), which will produce fewer emissions since the development of new technology. • The plant is projected to open in 2012 and will provide power to 635,000 customers. Source: The Gainesville Sun, September 13, 2006

• The Gator Gala raised $5 million this season, with proceeds targeted for UF athletics and athletic scholarships. Source: The Gainesville Sun, September 29, 2006

• Gainesville Regional Utilities rates increased 13.36% and are expected to increase over the next six years. • The increase in water, electric, and sewage rates is due, in part, to higher costs and the buildup of reserves for future purchases. Source: The Gainesville Sun, July 8, 2006

• Santa Fe Community College unveiled a $7.2 million health sciences addition. • Enrollment in all programs at Santa Fe Community College is expected to increase as a result of the health sciences addition. The enrollment growth is expected to be at least 10% annually. Source: The Gainesville Sun, September 21, 2006

Florida & Metro Forecast

• The Gainesville, MSA has 2,900 more jobs compared to this time last year. Source: The Gainesville Sun, September 19, 2006

• Last year, the University of Florida signed a new contract with PepsiCo for $27 million. This figure is $7 million more than what Coca-Cola had offered. Source: The Gainesville Sun, July 21, 2006

G ai n e s v i l l e Gainesville MSA Employment Distribution Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0.0

Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0%

(percent)

0.5

2.0

2.5

11000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

10000.0 9000.0 8000.0 7000.0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

135.0

6000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Gross Metro Product

Gainesville Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

130.0

4.0%

125.0

2.0%

120.0

0.0%

115.0 110.0

1.5

Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product

Gainesville Payroll Employment 140.0

1.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Gainesville Payroll Employment

-2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

G ai n e s v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL

November 2006 Short-Term Forecast 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

7.5 5.3 4.6 2.8 6.5 2.1 30.8 26.7 34.7 2.2

7.5 5.5 4.7 2.9 6.5 2.5 31.1 26.8 35 3.8

7.6 5.3 4.7 2.9 6.6 2.1 31.5 27 35.3 3.8

7.7 5.4 4.8 3 6.6 2.7 31.8 27.1 35.6 3.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

7.8 5.2 4.8 3 6.6 2.9 32.1 27.2 35.9 3.2

7.9 5.2 4.9 3.1 6.7 2.9 32.4 27.4 36.2 3.2

8.1 5.3 5 3.1 6.8 3.2 32.8 27.6 36.5 3.4

8.2 5.7 5 3.2 6.8 3.6 33.3 27.8 36.9 3.6

8.3 6 5.1 3.2 6.9 4 33.7 28 37.2 3.7

8.4 6.4 5.2 3.3 7 4.4 34.1 28.3 37.6 3.9

8.6 6.4 5.2 3.3 7.1 4.4 34.6 28.5 38 3.9

8.7 6.3 5.3 3.4 7.1 4.4 35 28.7 38.3 3.9

8.8 6.3 5.4 3.4 7.2 4.4 35.4 28.9 38.7 3.9

9 6.2 5.5 3.5 7.3 4.4 35.8 29.1 39 3.9

136.4 1.8 4 -0.6 132.4 1.9 6.6 1 19 2.1 3 14.2 1.8 2.1 1.8 6.2 1.5 13 4 23.2 1.7 15.4 2 4.7 0.9 3.6 0.3 38.5 1.5

137.1 1.9 4 -0.5 133 2 6.6 1.3 19.1 2 3 14.3 1.8 2.1 2.6 6.3 1.3 13.2 5 23.3 1.8 15.5 1.8 4.7 0.6 3.6 0.3 38.7 1.8

137.6 1.9 4.1 -0.2 133.6 2 6.7 1.7 19.1 1.4 3 14.3 1.8 2.1 3.1 6.3 1.5 13.4 5.6 23.5 2 15.5 1.5 4.7 0.7 3.6 -1.1 38.7 1.7

138.2 1.8 4.1 0.2 134.2 1.9 6.7 2.5 19.1 1.2 3 14.4 1.8 2.2 2.8 6.3 1.6 13.5 5.6 23.5 1.9 15.6 1.3 4.7 0.5 3.6 -0.1 38.8 1.4

138.8 1.7 4.1 0.5 134.7 1.8 6.8 2.8 19.1 0.9 3 14.4 1.8 2.2 2.8 6.3 1.7 13.7 5.3 23.6 1.5 15.6 1.6 4.8 0.5 3.7 1.2 39 1.2

139.4 1.6 4.1 0.5 135.3 1.7 6.8 3.1 19.1 0.5 3 14.4 1.8 2.2 2.6 6.4 2 13.8 5.2 23.6 1.2 15.7 1.6 4.8 0.6 3.7 3.1 39.1 1.1

132.4 2.3 4.1 -1 128.3 2.4 6.6 5.4 18.2 1.4 2.9 13.7 1.7 2 -1.3 6.1 0.5 12.4 3.1 22.6 3 14.6 5.9 4.6 1.4 3.6 0.2 37.6 1.5

132.8 1.7 4.1 -2 128.7 1.9 6.6 4.4 18.3 2.6 2.9 13.7 1.7 2 1.5 6.1 0.9 12.4 1.9 22.7 2.9 14.7 4.3 4.6 0.2 3.6 0.9 37.6 0

133.1 1 4.1 0.4 129 1 6.6 1.7 18.4 2.6 2.9 13.7 1.7 2 3.6 6.1 1.1 12.4 -1.6 22.8 2.2 14.8 4.8 4.6 -0.6 3.6 0.2 37.7 -0.9

133.6 1.3 4.1 -0.4 129.5 1.3 6.6 0.4 18.5 1.5 2.9 13.8 1.7 2.1 3.6 6.1 0.4 12.4 0.5 22.8 1.4 14.9 3.3 4.7 0.9 3.6 0.2 37.9 1.1

134 1.2 4.1 0.2 130 1.3 6.5 -1.3 18.6 1.7 2.9 13.9 1.7 2.1 3.2 6.1 0.4 12.5 0.8 22.8 1.2 15.1 3.6 4.7 1.3 3.6 0.1 37.9 0.9

134.5 1.3 4.1 0 130.4 1.4 6.5 -1.1 18.7 2 2.9 14 1.7 2.1 2.3 6.2 0.7 12.5 1.2 22.9 1.1 15.2 3.5 4.7 1.1 3.6 0.2 38 1.1

135.1 1.5 4.1 -0.6 131 1.5 6.6 -0.3 18.8 2.2 2.9 14.1 1.7 2.1 1.6 6.2 1.3 12.7 2.2 23 1 15.3 3.5 4.7 1.2 3.6 0.3 38.1 1

135.7 1.6 4 -0.4 131.7 1.7 6.6 -0.1 18.9 2.3 2.9 14.2 1.7 2.1 1.6 6.2 1.3 12.8 3.2 23.1 1.5 15.4 3 4.7 1 3.6 0.3 38.3 1.1

9404.7 242.2 0.6 131.3 3.5 2.6 1911 1325 586

9450.9 242.6 0.6 132 3.4 2.6 1935 1352 582

9498.3 243.1 0.7 132.7 2.8 2.6 1983 1366 617

9555.9 243.6 0.8 133.4 2.2 2.7 1946 1352 594

9629.5 244.2 0.8 134 2.1 2.7 1958 1332 626

9701.5 244.7 0.9 134.7 2 2.7 1964 1319 645

9797.4 245.3 0.9 135.3 2 2.7 1963 1314 649

9887 246 1 135.9 1.9 2.7 1954 1303 650

Florida & Metro Forecast

9982.4 10077.4 10164.3 10253.2 10342.2 10441.3 246.6 247.3 248 248.7 249.5 250.3 1 1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 136.5 137.1 137.7 138.3 138.8 139.4 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 1937 1927 1913 1890 1867 1857 1292 1280 1266 1257 1252 1250 645 647 647 634 615 608

G ai n e s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

November 2006 Short-Term Forecast 1999 Personal Income (Billions $)

5.2 4.5 3.1 2.1 5.3 2.8 22.6 23.1 26.2 1.8

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

5.5 6.2 3.3 2.2 5.5 3.7 23.7 23.7 27 2.9

5.7 3.8 3.5 2.3 5.6 1.6 24.5 24 27.7 2.6

5.8 1.8 3.6 2.2 5.6 0.4 24.8 23.9 28.6 3.4

6.1 4.6 3.8 2.3 5.8 2.6 25.7 24.4 30 4.7

6.6 7.6 4.1 2.5 6.1 4.9 27.5 25.4 31.7 5.6

7 7 4.4 2.7 6.3 4.1 29.2 26.3 33.6 6.2

7.4 5.3 4.6 2.8 6.5 2.2 30.6 26.7 34.6 2.8

7.8 5.3 4.8 3 6.6 2.6 32 27.2 35.7 3.4

8.2 5.9 5.1 3.2 6.9 3.8 33.5 27.9 37 3.7

8.8 6.3 5.4 3.4 7.2 4.4 35.2 28.8 38.5 3.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

119.1 2.1 5 -3.5 114.1 2.4 4.9 8.1 16.4 0.3 1.9 13.6 0.8 2.1 0.8 6.1 0.9 10.9 7.9 18.4 2.4 11.7 5.2 3.6 -1.4 2.9 -0.6 37.1 1.2

123.3 3.5 5.3 5.5 118 3.4 4.7 -2.9 17.1 4.6 2.1 14.1 0.9 2.3 11.6 6.4 4.2 11.3 3.7 19.3 4.5 11.8 0.8 3.8 6.1 3.1 6.6 38.1 2.7

124.8 1.3 4.6 -14.5 120.3 2 4.8 2.1 17.4 1.5 2.2 13.9 1.3 2.2 -6.5 6.6 4 11.1 -2 19.9 3.1 12.3 3.8 3.9 2.2 3.1 1.6 39 2.4

124.7 -0.1 4.5 -0.9 120.2 -0.1 5.1 5.6 17.2 -1.2 2.3 13.3 1.5 2 -6.5 6.6 -0.1 9.9 -10.4 20.4 2.4 12.1 -1.3 4.3 10.4 3.2 2.1 39.4 1

126.1 1.1 4.2 -5.9 121.8 1.3 5.2 1.5 17.3 1.1 2.5 13.2 1.7 2 -1.2 6.2 -6.4 10.4 4.3 20.8 2.3 12 -0.5 4.5 5.4 3.3 3.6 40 1.6

128.3 1.8 4.2 -2 124.2 1.9 5.8 11.7 17.4 0.4 2.6 13.2 1.6 2.1 6.2 6.2 -0.7 11.3 8.8 21.5 3 12.9 7.5 4.7 3.3 3.4 3.7 38.8 -2.8

129.5 0.9 4.1 -1.6 125.4 1 6.2 7.2 17.9 2.8 2.8 13.5 1.6 2 -5.8 6.1 -0.8 12 6.3 21.9 2 13.8 6.4 4.5 -3.2 3.6 4.4 37.4 -3.8

132.2 2.1 4.1 -0.5 128.1 2.2 6.6 5.6 18.2 1.5 2.9 13.6 1.7 2 -0.8 6.1 0 12.4 3.8 22.5 2.8 14.4 4.8 4.6 2.5 3.6 0.3 37.7 0.9

133.8 1.2 4.1 0 129.7 1.2 6.6 -0.1 18.5 2 2.9 13.8 1.7 2.1 3.2 6.1 0.6 12.5 0.2 22.8 1.5 15 3.8 4.7 0.7 3.6 0.2 37.9 0.5

136.1 1.7 4.1 -0.5 132 1.8 6.6 0.5 18.9 2.1 3 14.2 1.7 2.1 1.9 6.2 1.3 12.9 3.6 23.2 1.5 15.4 2.6 4.7 1 3.6 0.3 38.4 1.3

138.5 1.8 4.1 0.3 134.4 1.8 6.7 2.5 19.1 1 3 14.4 1.8 2.2 2.8 6.3 1.7 13.6 5.4 23.5 1.6 15.6 1.5 4.7 0.6 3.7 0.8 38.9 1.3

7185.2 230.3 1.4 114.6 1.5 2.3 2662 1316 1346

7493.5 232.7 1.1 122.6 7 3 2195 1193 1002

7663.4 233.8 0.5 124.5 1.5 3.5 2377 1189 1188

7840.7 235.6 0.8 124.4 -0.1 4 1959 1151 807

8153.1 237.1 0.6 125.9 1.2 3.7 1746 1281 465

8554.3 238.7 0.7 127 0.9 3.4 1883 1404 478

8970.1 240.5 0.7 126.9 -0.1 3 2246 1478 767

9368.8 242 0.6 130.7 3 2.5 1860 1365 495

9596.3 243.9 0.8 133.7 2.3 2.7 1963 1342 620

9936.1 246.3 1 136.2 1.9 2.7 1945 1297 648

10300.3 249.1 1.1 138.6 1.7 2.7 1882 1256 626

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

J ack s o n v i l l e

The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker County, Clay County, Duval County, Nassau County, and St. Johns County. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home several major U.S. military instillations, shipyards, rail heads, the Jacksonville International Airport, and the University of North Florida. The area has: • MSA’s population estimate of 1,248,371 for 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Baker County population estimate of 24,569 for 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Clay County population estimate of 171,095 for 2005 ( U.S. Census Bureau).

predicted 4.6% annual (2006 – 2009) growth rate while the Construction and Mining sector is estimated to increase by 3.8% annually from 2006 through 2009. Leisure and Hospitality is predicted to increase at 2.6% annually. Other sectors with increases greater than 2% are Finance and Education and Health. Unemployment for the region should fall to 3.0%. The population growth in the region will average 2.0% annually. Jacksonville is expected to see the largest average annual decline (statewide) in housing starts over the next three years. Housing starts predictions demonstrate an 11% annual decline for 2006 through 2009.

• Duval County population estimate of 826,436 for 2005 ( U.S. Census Bureau).

F r o m t he B u s i n e s s P age s

• Nassau County population estimate of 64,746 for 2005 ( U.S. Census Bureau).

• Stock prices for Atlantic BancGroup Inc. and Jacksonville Bancorp experienced record highs at around $40 per share.

• St. Johns County population estimate of 161,525 for 2005 ( U.S. Census Bureau). • A labor force of 654,403 in August 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database). • Unemployment in August of 2006 at 3.6% (Florida Regional Economic Database).

Sh o r t - Te r m Ou t l o o k Personal income is expected to grow, on average, at 6.6% annually over the next three years, a figure on par with the state. Employment growth is predicted at 2.4% annually. Professional and Business Services will lead employment growth for the region with a

Source: The Florida Times-Union, October 2, 2006

• Baptist Medical Center announces a south addition that increases patient capacity by 25% and adds 35 new jobs (average hourly wage $20 - $25). The addition is estimated to cost $9 million. Source: The Florida Times-Union, September 7, 2006

• Baptist Medical Center announces a $400 million expansion that includes expanding the Wolfson Children’s Hospital, which will add 110 new jobs; adding an additional $65

Continued 38

Florida & Metro Forecast

J ack s o n v i l l e

million expansion to Center South; and using $26 million to upgrade the Baptist Medical Center Downtown. Source: The Florida Times-Union, September 21, 2006

• Jacksonville University is adding a five-story dormitory and a four-story parking garage. It is projected to be completed by fall 2007 at a cost of $25 million. The addition adds 250 dorm rooms and 350 parking spaces. Source: The Florida Times-Union, July 15, 2006

• The Aerospace Center at Florida Community College at Jacksonville has received $1.2 million to help prepare students for jobs in aerospace and aviation. Along with the creation of an Aerospace Resource Center, the funds will allow the addition of 10 courses with hopes of training 200 workers by January. Source: The Florida Times-Union, August 24, 2006

• The Minneapolis-based MinuteClinic will be adding locations (five to seven) to area CVS stores in Jacksonville. The MinuteClinics will be staffed by nurse practitioners and/or physician assistants to assist in treating nonurgent illnesses. A visit is expected to cost $59. Source: The Florida Times-Union, July 7, 2006

• A Publix prototype launches in Jacksonville. The new store comes with splashy tile, a liquor store, expanded kosher and organic food sections, a party planning service, and a cooking school. The location added 75 jobs. Source: The Florida Times-Union, July 13, 2006

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

J ack s o n v i l l e Jacksonville MSA Employment Distribution Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0.0

Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

(percent)

0.5

2.0

60000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

55000.0 50000.0 45000.0 40000.0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

700.0

35000.0 30000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Gross Metro Product

Jacksonville Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

8.0%

650.0

6.0%

600.0

4.0%

550.0

2.0%

500.0

1.5

Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product

Jacksonville Payroll Employment

450.0

1.0

0.0% 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Jacksonville Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast

-2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Personal Income

J ack s o n v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

November 2006 Short-Term Forecast 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

45.6 5.7 26.9 18.7 39.5 2.5 35.7 30.9 41.4 1.9

46.3 6 27.3 19 39.9 3 36 31.1 41.7 3.7

47 6 27.6 19.4 40.2 2.8 36.4 31.2 42.1 3.8

47.7 6.2 27.9 19.7 40.6 3.4 36.7 31.3 42.4 3.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

624.9 2.6 34.7 1.1 590.2 2.7 50.2 9.8 135.6 1.8 28.3 76.1 31 11.7 -1.9 62 2.7 91.5 2.8 73.2 2 62.9 4.1 27.6 1.3 17.7 2.4 57.8 0.4

627.5 2 34.7 -0.3 592.7 2.1 50.2 6.9 136.2 1.9 28.3 76.4 31.2 11.7 0.3 62.3 2.4 92.1 1.3 73.7 1.8 63.2 3.1 27.6 0.4 17.7 0.9 57.9 0.7

630 1.7 34.8 -0.5 595.2 1.8 50.3 3.5 136.8 1.8 28.4 76.6 31.2 11.7 1.2 62.4 1.4 92.6 2.2 74.3 2.3 63.6 1.2 27.7 1.5 17.8 0.6 58.1 0.8

632.8 1.8 34.7 -0.3 598.1 2 50.2 0.9 137.5 1.8 28.5 77 31.4 11.7 0.2 62.6 1.8 93.6 3.1 74.5 2.8 64.1 2.6 27.8 1.1 17.8 0.5 58.3 1.2

50855 51183.2 51552.7 51959.6 1278.8 1285.3 1292 1298.7 1.9 2 2 2.1 645.6 649.2 652.7 656.2 2.8 2.3 2.1 2.2 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.2 18314 17446 16560 15687 15618 14892 13974 13253 2696 2554 2586 2435

48.4 6 28.3 20.1 41 3.7 37 31.4 42.8 3.4

49.1 6 28.7 20.4 41.4 3.7 37.4 31.6 43.1 3.4

49.9 6.2 29.2 20.7 41.9 4.1 37.9 31.8 43.6 3.6

50.8 6.6 29.6 21.2 42.4 4.5 38.4 32 44 3.8

51.7 6.9 30.1 21.6 43 4.9 38.9 32.3 44.4 3.9

52.7 7.3 30.6 22 43.6 5.3 39.4 32.6 44.9 4

53.6 7.5 31.2 22.5 44.2 5.5 39.9 32.9 45.3 4

54.6 7.4 31.7 22.9 44.8 5.5 40.4 33.2 45.8 4

55.5 7.4 32.1 23.4 45.4 5.5 40.9 33.5 46.2 4

56.5 7.3 32.6 23.8 46 5.4 41.5 33.7 46.6 4

635.5 1.7 34.7 -0.1 600.8 1.8 50 -0.3 138.2 2 28.6 77.6 31.6 11.7 -0.2 62.8 1.2 94.5 3.2 74.9 2.4 64.7 2.8 27.9 1.3 17.8 0.4 58.3 0.9

638.7 1.8 34.6 -0.3 604.1 1.9 50.1 -0.2 139.2 2.1 28.7 78.2 31.9 11.6 -0.8 63.1 1.3 95.4 3.6 75.3 2.3 64.9 2.7 28 1.5 17.8 0.4 58.5 1.1

642.6 2 34.5 -0.9 608.1 2.2 50.3 0 140.1 2.4 28.9 78.8 32.1 11.6 -0.7 63.6 1.9 96.8 4.5 75.8 1.9 65.3 2.7 28.1 1.6 17.8 0.5 58.7 1

646.8 2.2 34.4 -0.8 612.4 2.4 50.5 0.6 140.8 2.4 28.9 79.3 32.4 11.7 0.1 63.9 2 98.4 5.1 76.2 2.2 65.8 2.6 28.2 1.4 17.9 0.5 59 1.1

651.2 2.5 34.4 -0.9 616.8 2.7 50.9 1.8 141.6 2.5 29.1 79.8 32.6 11.8 0.8 64.3 2.4 100 5.8 76.8 2.4 65.9 1.9 28.3 1.3 17.9 0.5 59.4 1.8

655.7 2.7 34.3 -0.9 621.4 2.9 51.3 2.3 142.5 2.4 29.2 80.3 32.9 11.8 1.8 64.7 2.5 101.8 6.6 77.2 2.5 66.2 1.9 28.4 1.2 17.9 0.5 59.8 2.1

660.1 2.7 34.3 -0.7 625.8 2.9 51.7 2.8 142.9 2.1 29.3 80.4 33.2 11.8 2 65.2 2.5 103.7 7.2 77.7 2.5 66.4 1.6 28.4 1.2 17.9 0.5 60 2.3

664.1 2.7 34.3 -0.5 629.9 2.9 52.1 3.2 143.5 1.9 29.4 80.7 33.5 11.9 1.4 65.6 2.6 105.2 7 78.1 2.5 66.7 1.4 28.5 1.1 18 0.5 60.3 2.3

668.1 2.6 34.2 -0.3 633.9 2.8 52.5 3.2 144.1 1.7 29.6 80.9 33.8 11.9 1.3 66 2.7 106.6 6.6 78.4 2.2 67 1.6 28.6 1.1 18 0.9 60.6 2.1

672.3 2.5 34.2 -0.4 638.1 2.7 53 3.3 144.5 1.4 29.8 81.1 34.1 11.9 1.3 66.5 2.9 108.3 6.4 78.8 2 67.2 1.6 28.7 1.2 18.2 1.7 61 2

52430 52912.5 53540.8 54148.6 54802.1 55457.3 56087.5 56678.3 57284.1 57937.2 1305.2 1311.6 1318 1324.4 1330.7 1337 1343.3 1349.5 1355.8 1362.2 2.1 2 2 2 2 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 659.6 662.9 666.3 669.7 673.1 676.6 680 683.5 686.8 690 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2 2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3 3 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 15514 15436 15322 15257 15216 15159 15146 14975 14832 14712 12988 12848 12716 12596 12516 12421 12383 12237 12126 12025 2526 2588 2605 2661 2700 2737 2763 2738 2706 2688

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

J ack s o n v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

November 2006 Short-Term Forecast 1999 Personal Income (Billions $)

30.3 4.7 17.8 12.5 31.1 3 27.2 27.9 31.3 1.4

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

33.1 9.4 19.3 13.8 33.1 6.7 29.3 29.3 32.8 4.7

33.8 2 19.8 14 33.1 -0.1 29.4 28.8 33.4 1.8

35.1 3.9 20.4 14.7 33.9 2.4 29.9 28.8 34.8 4.3

36.9 5 21.7 15.2 35 3 30.7 29.1 36.7 5.5

39.5 7.1 23.2 16.3 36.5 4.4 32.2 29.7 38.2 4.1

42.7 8.1 25.3 17.4 38.4 5.1 34.1 30.7 40.1 4.9

45.3 6 26.7 18.6 39.5 2.9 35.5 30.9 41.1 2.6

48 6 28.1 19.9 40.8 3.4 36.9 31.3 42.6 3.5

51.3 6.8 29.9 21.4 42.7 4.7 38.6 32.2 44.2 3.8

55 7.4 31.9 23.1 45.1 5.5 40.7 33.3 46 4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

Florida & Metro Forecast

543.7 2.4 38.5 -0.5 505.2 2.7 31.3 1.6 124.3 1.9 24.5 67.7 32 14.4 7.3 55.4 3.7 80.9 5.9 58.9 2.2 49 3.3 22.7 1.5 18 -3.5 50.3 0.6

565.6 4 39.5 2.4 526.1 4.1 32.6 4.2 129.7 4.4 26.3 70.5 32.9 15.3 6.3 56.5 2 89.1 10.2 59.6 1.2 50.2 2.3 23.8 4.7 17.8 -1.1 51.5 2.4

567 0.3 36.2 -8.3 530.9 0.9 32.9 1 125.6 -3.2 26.2 67.6 31.7 14.4 -5.6 57.9 2.4 93.9 5.3 61.1 2.4 51.1 1.8 23.9 0.4 17.7 -0.7 52.5 1.9

561.5 -1 34.4 -4.9 527.1 -0.7 34.1 3.6 124.4 -0.9 25.9 68.1 30.4 13.2 -8.1 57.7 -0.3 86.1 -8.2 63.5 4 52.5 2.8 24.9 4.6 17.7 0.2 52.8 0.5

564.6 0.5 33.3 -3.1 531.2 0.8 36.7 7.4 125 0.4 26.8 68.8 29.4 12.4 -6.1 57.6 -0.1 84.1 -2.3 64.7 1.9 53.3 1.6 25.7 3 18 1.5 53.6 1.7

582 3.1 33.3 -0.3 548.7 3.3 40.9 11.6 128.1 2.5 26.9 71.2 30.1 11.6 -6.4 58.4 1.4 85.9 2.2 67.9 5 56.3 5.5 26.4 2.6 17.8 -1.3 55.4 3.3

605.6 4.1 34.1 2.5 571.6 4.2 45.1 10.4 132.7 3.6 27.5 74.1 31.1 11.8 1.9 59.9 2.5 88.5 3 71.3 5 60.3 7.2 27.1 2.7 17.5 -1.6 57.3 3.4

623.4 2.9 34.8 2.2 588.6 3 49.7 10 135.3 2 28.2 76 31 11.6 -1.7 61.9 3.3 91.3 3.1 73 2.3 62.9 4.3 27.5 1.5 17.7 1.2 57.7 0.8

634.3 1.7 34.7 -0.3 599.5 1.9 50.1 1 137.9 1.9 28.5 77.3 31.5 11.7 0.1 62.7 1.4 94 3 74.8 2.4 64.3 2.3 27.9 1.3 17.8 0.5 58.3 1

649.1 2.3 34.4 -0.9 614.6 2.5 50.7 1.2 141.3 2.4 29 79.5 32.5 11.7 0.5 64.1 2.2 99.2 5.5 76.5 2.3 65.8 2.3 28.2 1.4 17.9 0.5 59.2 1.5

666.1 2.6 34.2 -0.5 631.9 2.8 52.3 3.1 143.8 1.8 29.5 80.8 33.6 11.9 1.5 65.8 2.7 106 6.8 78.2 2.3 66.8 1.5 28.6 1.2 18 0.9 60.5 2.2

37439 1112.2 1.4 577.1 2.2 3.1 11325 8549 2776

39004.2 1129.4 1.6 589.4 2.1 3.2 10919 8249 2669

39748.3 1151.6 2 595.6 1.1 4.1 12766 10070 2696

40471.3 1176.2 2.1 595.8 0 5.4 14505 11273 3231

42238.9 1200.1 2 600.3 0.8 5.2 15375 13042 2333

44693 1226.6 2.2 611.1 1.8 4.7 18227 14127 4100

47985.2 1251.4 2 625.3 2.3 3.9 24211 18971 5241

50592.6 1275.7 1.9 644 3 3.1 19359 15789 3570

52213.7 1301.9 2.1 657.8 2.2 3.2 15799 13266 2534

54487.2 1327.5 2 671.4 2.1 3.1 15238 12563 2676

56996.8 1352.7 1.9 685.1 2 2.9 14916 12193 2724

Lake l a n d

The Lakeland MSA is comprised of Polk County only. It is located in the western center of the state and is agriculturally based (especially in Citrus). It is the home of Cypress Gardens and Fantasy of Flight. It is also the spring training location for the Detroit Tigers (Lakeland) and Cleveland Indians (Winter Haven). The area has: • Population estimate of 530,126 for 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A labor force of 268,231 in August 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database). • Unemployment in August of 2006 at 4.0% (Florida Regional Economic Database).

Sh o r t - Te r m Ou t l o o k Personal income is expected to grow, on average, at 6.5% annually over the next three years, slightly below the state average. Employment growth is predicted at 2.0% annually over the next three years (2006-2009). The Professional and Business Services sector will lead employment growth in the region with an anticipated 3.3% annual rate. The Information sector will grow, on average, 2.9% annually, with Trade, Transportation, and Utilities growing at 2.5% from 2006 through 2009. Federal government employment is expected to decrease by an annual rate of 0.4%, along with Manufacturing, which demonstrates a predicted 0.8% annual decline over the next three years. Unemployment for the region will be 3.4%, just above the state’s expected 3.2% unemployment rate.

The population growth in the region will average 2.6% annually and will outpace statewide expectations.

F r o m t he B u s i n e s s P age s • Lakeland-based Publix Supermarkets posted a 2nd quarter sales jump of 10.4% over the same period last year. Reported earnings are $264 million. Publix has 884 stores in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama, and Tennessee. Source: Bizjournals, October 2, 2006

• Polk County leads all counties in citrus acreage, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Commercial Citrus Inventory Preliminary Report noted that the citrus acreage total is 621,373, down 17% from the 2004 census, creating a 127,182 acre loss. Source: South Florida Business Journal, Sept. 18, 2006

• Lakeland’s 33813 zip code is reported as the 25th wealthiest zip code in the Tampa Bay area. Source: The Ledger, September 27, 2006

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Lake l a n d Lakeland MSA Employment Distribution Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0.0

Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate (percent)

8.0% 7.0%

2.0

20000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

16000.0 14000.0 12000.0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

240.0

10000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Gross Metro Product

Lakeland Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

8.0%

220.0

6.0% 4.0%

200.0

2.0%

180.0

1.5

Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product

Lakeland Payroll Employment

160.0

1.0

18000.0

6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0%

0.5

0.0% 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Lakeland Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast

-2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Personal Income

Lake l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL

November 2006 Short-Term Forecast 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

16.2 5.7 7.6 8.6 14 2.5 28.6 24.8 34.7 2.2

16.4 5.8 7.7 8.7 14.1 2.8 28.8 24.8 35 3.8

16.7 6.1 7.8 8.9 14.3 2.8 29 24.9 35.3 3.9

16.9 6.1 7.8 9.1 14.4 3.3 29.2 24.9 35.6 3.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

217.9 2.1 17.8 -1.9 200.1 2.5 17.5 4.3 48.4 2.7 10.2 25.4 12.7 2.3 4.2 11.3 0.6 40.9 3 26.2 2.6 17 1.4 9 4.3 1.3 -3.6 26.1 1.1

218.5 1.9 17.8 -1.9 200.7 2.2 17.5 3.1 48.7 2.5 10.3 25.5 12.8 2.3 3.7 11.3 0.1 40.9 2.5 26.4 3.2 17.1 1.4 9.1 3.6 1.3 -3.9 26.2 1.1

219.1 1.5 17.9 -0.6 201.2 1.7 17.4 0.1 49 1.9 10.3 25.5 12.9 2.4 3.1 11.2 -0.4 40.9 2 26.5 3.3 17.2 2 9.1 1.3 1.3 0.7 26.3 1

219.7 1.2 17.8 0.1 201.9 1.3 17.3 -0.7 49.3 2.1 10.3 25.6 13 2.4 3.5 11.3 0.4 41 0.3 26.5 1.8 17.4 3.4 9.1 0.7 1.3 0.8 26.4 1.2

17596.3 17698.1 17808.9 17927.8 565.9 570.1 574.1 578.1 3.3 3.2 3.1 3 266.3 267.9 269.5 271.1 2.6 3.1 3 2.4 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 11155 10468 10040 9605 10390 9744 9268 8819 765 724 772 787

17.1 6 7.9 9.2 14.5 3.6 29.5 25 35.9 3.4

17.4 6 8 9.4 14.7 3.7 29.7 25.1 36.2 3.4

17.7 6.2 8.2 9.5 14.8 4 30 25.2 36.5 3.5

18 6.5 8.3 9.7 15 4.4 30.4 25.4 36.9 3.7

18.3 6.9 8.4 9.9 15.2 4.8 30.8 25.6 37.2 3.9

18.6 7.2 8.6 10.1 15.4 5.2 31.2 25.9 37.6 4

19 7.2 8.7 10.3 15.6 5.3 31.6 26.1 38 4.1

19.3 7.2 8.8 10.5 15.8 5.3 32.1 26.3 38.4 4.1

19.6 7.2 9 10.7 16 5.3 32.5 26.6 38.8 4.1

20 7.2 9.1 10.9 16.3 5.3 33 26.8 39.1 4

220.4 1.2 17.8 0.2 202.6 1.3 17.2 -1.8 49.6 2.3 10.4 25.8 13.1 2.4 2.9 11.3 0.3 41.2 0.6 26.6 1.6 17.6 3.6 9.1 0.9 1.3 0.3 26.4 1

221.3 1.3 17.8 0 203.5 1.4 17.2 -1.7 49.9 2.5 10.4 26.1 13.2 2.4 2 11.3 0.6 41.3 0.9 26.8 1.4 17.7 3.5 9.2 1.1 1.3 0.7 26.5 1.2

222.5 1.5 17.8 -0.6 204.7 1.7 17.2 -1.1 50.3 2.6 10.5 26.3 13.4 2.4 1.3 11.4 1.3 41.7 2 26.9 1.4 17.8 3.5 9.2 1.2 1.3 0.8 26.6 1.2

223.7 1.8 17.7 -0.6 206 2 17.1 -0.9 50.6 2.7 10.5 26.5 13.5 2.4 1.5 11.4 1.3 42.2 2.9 27 1.8 17.9 3.2 9.2 1 1.4 0.9 26.7 1.4

225 2.1 17.7 -0.7 207.3 2.3 17.2 0.2 50.9 2.7 10.6 26.6 13.6 2.4 1.8 11.5 1.5 42.7 3.8 27.2 2.1 18 2.3 9.2 0.9 1.4 0.9 26.9 2

226.4 2.3 17.6 -0.8 208.7 2.6 17.2 0.5 51.2 2.6 10.6 26.8 13.8 2.5 2.7 11.5 1.3 43.3 4.8 27.3 2.1 18.1 2.2 9.2 0.7 1.4 0.8 27.1 2.3

227.7 2.3 17.6 -0.6 210 2.6 17.3 0.9 51.4 2.2 10.6 26.9 13.9 2.5 3.1 11.6 1.5 44 5.4 27.5 2.4 18.1 1.8 9.2 0.7 1.3 -3.6 27.2 2.3

228.9 2.3 17.6 -0.3 211.3 2.6 17.4 1.7 51.6 2 10.7 27 14.1 2.5 2.6 11.6 1.6 44.4 5.3 27.6 2.3 18.2 1.6 9.3 0.6 1.3 -0.6 27.3 2.1

230.1 2.2 17.6 -0.1 212.4 2.5 17.5 2 51.8 1.8 10.8 27 14.2 2.5 2.6 11.7 1.7 44.9 5.1 27.7 1.8 18.3 1.8 9.3 0.6 1.4 2.8 27.4 1.9

231.3 2.2 17.6 -0.1 213.6 2.3 17.6 2.3 52 1.4 10.8 27.1 14.3 2.5 2.5 11.7 2 45.4 5 27.7 1.5 18.4 1.7 9.3 0.7 1.4 6.7 27.5 1.7

18075 18227.9 18427.5 18611.4 18808.8 19009.4 19192.2 581.8 585.4 588.6 591.5 594.3 596.9 599.2 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.1 2 1.8 272.6 274 275.4 276.8 278.2 279.5 280.8 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2 2 2 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 9349 9028 8747 8610 8525 8414 8238 8511 8169 7904 7757 7653 7537 7405 838 858 844 853 872 877 833

19377 19561.6 19766.5 601.4 603.9 606.4 1.7 1.6 1.6 282.1 283.4 284.7 1.9 1.9 1.9 3.4 3.3 3.3 8136 8063 7963 7313 7243 7182 823 820 782

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Lake l a n d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

November 2006 Short-Term Forecast 1999 Personal Income (Billions $)

11.1 5.6 5.1 5.9 11.3 3.9 23.1 23.7 28.5 2.7

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

11.5 4.1 5.5 6 11.5 1.6 23.7 23.7 29.4 3.3

12.2 6 5.7 6.5 12 3.9 24.8 24.3 30 2

12.5 2.1 5.8 6.7 12 0.6 24.9 24 30.5 1.7

13 4.6 6 7 12.3 2.6 25.4 24.1 31.6 3.4

14 7.4 6.5 7.5 12.9 4.7 26.6 24.5 32.1 1.8

15.2 8.4 7.1 8 13.6 5.4 27.8 25 33.6 4.4

16.1 5.9 7.5 8.5 14 2.7 28.5 24.8 34.5 2.8

17 6 7.9 9.1 14.5 3.4 29.4 25 35.7 3.5

18.2 6.7 8.4 9.8 15.1 4.6 30.6 25.5 37.1 3.8

19.5 7.2 8.9 10.6 15.9 5.3 32.3 26.4 38.6 4.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

Florida & Metro Forecast

179.6 1.9 21.3 -0.7 158.3 2.2 13.6 -4.2 43.6 3.5 7.9 26.2 9.5 2.1 5.5 8.9 2.5 21.1 6.7 21.3 2.6 14.4 4.7 7.1 -3.2 1.4 1.8 24.8 0

185.9 3.5 20.2 -5 165.7 4.7 13.8 1.5 45.1 3.4 8.1 27.3 9.7 2.3 11.9 9.6 8.5 23.4 11.1 22.3 5 14.9 3.2 7.2 1.3 1.6 15 25.3 2.1

188.2 1.2 18.9 -6.7 169.3 2.2 14 1.3 45.3 0.6 8.5 26.4 10.4 2.6 9.2 10.3 6.9 26 11.2 22.8 2.1 15.1 1.5 7 -2.6 1.4 -17.6 24.8 -2

187.7 -0.3 18.4 -2.2 169.2 -0.1 13.6 -2.8 44 -3 8.5 25 10.4 2.4 -4.9 10.8 5.3 26.4 1.4 22.5 -1.3 15.8 4.8 7.4 5.1 1.4 3 24.9 0.1

189.5 1 18.1 -1.9 171.4 1.3 12.9 -5.2 42.1 -4.2 9.1 22.5 10.5 2.2 -7.9 11 2 31.2 18.2 22.9 1.7 15 -5.4 7.5 0.9 1.4 -3 25.3 1.6

200.4 5.7 18.2 0.6 182.2 6.3 14.4 11.4 43.9 4.3 9.4 23.5 11 2.2 -1.1 10.9 -1 36.5 16.9 24.1 5.3 15.3 2.2 8 7.6 1.3 -2.4 25.5 1

212 5.8 18.2 0 193.7 6.3 16.4 14.1 46.9 6.8 10 24.9 12 2.2 0.4 11 1.2 39.4 8 25.4 5.5 16.6 8.7 8.6 6.9 1.4 5 25.8 0.9

217.3 2.5 17.8 -2.2 199.5 3 17.4 6.2 48.4 3.2 10.2 25.4 12.7 2.3 4.3 11.3 1.9 40.7 3.4 26.1 2.5 16.9 1.6 9 5 1.3 -4.2 26.1 1.3

220.1 1.3 17.8 -0.1 202.3 1.4 17.2 -1 49.4 2.2 10.3 25.8 13.1 2.4 2.9 11.3 0.2 41.1 1 26.6 2 17.4 3.1 9.1 1 1.3 0.6 26.4 1.1

224.4 1.9 17.7 -0.7 206.7 2.2 17.2 -0.3 50.8 2.7 10.5 26.6 13.6 2.4 1.8 11.4 1.4 42.5 3.4 27.1 1.9 17.9 2.8 9.2 1 1.4 0.8 26.8 1.7

229.5 2.3 17.6 -0.3 211.8 2.5 17.5 1.7 51.7 1.8 10.7 27 14.1 2.5 2.7 11.6 1.7 44.7 5.2 27.6 2 18.2 1.7 9.3 0.6 1.4 1.3 27.4 2

12252.5 479.1 1.5 209.9 1.2 5.1 3985 3122 863

12714.8 486.3 1.5 231.2 10.2 4.1 4900 3640 1260

13115.1 493 1.4 236.2 2.1 5 4616 4014 602

13386.4 501.4 1.7 236.7 0.2 5.8 5022 4571 451

14036.7 512.5 2.2 239.4 1.2 5.6 6903 6271 632

15200.3 526.9 2.8 248.5 3.8 4.9 9250 8462 789

16600.8 545.2 3.5 258 3.8 4 13045 11914 1132

17504 563.6 3.4 265.2 2.8 3.3 12453 11153 1300

18009.9 579.9 2.9 271.8 2.5 3.4 9505 8692 814

18714.3 592.8 2.2 277.5 2.1 3.4 8574 7713 862

19474.3 602.7 1.7 282.8 1.9 3.4 8100 7286 814

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B each

The Miami – Fort Lauderdale – Miami Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. It is located on the southeast coast of Florida and is home to the Miami Dolphins, Florida Panthers, Miami Heat, Florida Marlins, University of Miami, and Florida International University. The area has: • MSA’s population estimate of 5,334,685 for 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,329,187 for 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Broward County population estimate of 1,757,590 for 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,247,908 for 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau). • 37% of residents that are foreign born. • 48% of the population that speaks more than one language. • A labor force of 2,785,360 in August 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database). • Unemployment in August of 2006 at 3.8% (Florida Regional Economic Database).

Sh o r t - Te r m Ou t l o o k Personal income is expected to grow, on average, at 6.2% annually over the next three years; this figure is below the state average. Employment growth is predicted at 2.2% annually. Professional and Business Services will lead employment growth for the region, with a predicted 5.1% annual (2006 – 2009) growth rate, while the Education and Health sector is estimated to increase by 2.2% annually from 2006 through 2009. Construction and Mining is predicted to increase at 2.2% annually. Housing starts are expected to decrease, on average, 6.3% annually (2006 – 2009). Unemployment for the region is expected to be 3.4% annually; this estimate is the highest in the state. The population growth in the region will average 1.5% annually (2006 – 2009).

F r o m t he B u s i n e s s P age s • South Florida Regional Transportation Authority reported a 31.5% increase in Tri-Rail passengers during the month of June. The boost was attributed to increased advertising, high gas prices, and “Dump the Pump Day” on June 8th. Source: South Florida Business Journal, July 11, 2006

• The Florida International University board of trustees named the new medical school after a Miami businessman and philanthropist. The Herbert Wertheim College of Medicine is expected to begin classes in 2009 with 120 students. Source: South Florida Business Journal, Sept, 29, 2006 Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B each

• Carnival Cruise Lines reported a profit of $1.23 billion, or $1.49 per share, for the third quarter. The Miami-based company indicated that strong European and Alaskan cruise seasons helped offset the extra fuel costs and lower sales of Caribbean cruises. Source: Associated Press, September 22, 2006

• Norwegian Cruise Line will remain in South Florida while searching for a spot to build a new 200,000-square-foot headquarters. The company employs 1,200 people and is currently based near Miami International Airport. Source: South Florida Business Journal, Aug. 18, 2006

• Fourteen months after groundbreaking, the site of the future Poinciana Biopharmaceutical Park remains empty. The plans for the 40-acre site were revised to include 1.5 million square feet for biotech research and development in addition to retail space and apartment suites. The completion date of the project is currently unknown. Source: South Florida Business Journal, Aug. 4, 2006

• Gulfstream Park has reported the Hallandale Beach racetrack has agreed to borrow $25.75 million to fund the design and construction of 500 slot machines in the track’s clubhouse. Officials plan on installing 516 slots in November, and the track is scheduled to receive the first machines in October. Source: South Florida Business Journal, July 27, 2006

Florida & Metro Forecast

M iami â&#x20AC;&#x201C; F o r t Lau d e r d a l e â&#x20AC;&#x201C; M iami B each Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach MSA Employment Distribution Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0.0

Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate (percent)

7.0%

0.3

0.6

1.2

1.5

Miami Real Gross Metro Product 220000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

200000.0

6.0%

180000.0

5.0% 4.0%

160000.0

3.0%

140000.0

2.0%

0.9

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate

120000.0

Miami Real Personal Income

Miami Payroll Employment 2700.0 2600.0 2500.0 2400.0 2300.0 2200.0 2100.0 2000.0 1900.0

(Thousands)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Gross Metro Product

8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Miami Payroll Employment

-2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B each

Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach (MD), FL

November 2006 Short-Term Forecast 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

209.2 4.9 107.1 102.2 181.4 1.7 38 33 43.5 1.9

212 6 108.4 103.6 182.8 3 38.4 33.1 43.9 3.7

215 5.6 109.8 105.2 184.2 2.4 38.8 33.3 44.3 3.8

218 5.7 111.1 106.9 185.7 2.9 39.2 33.4 44.6 3.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

220.9 5.6 112.4 108.4 187.3 3.2 39.6 33.6 45 3.4

223.8 5.6 113.9 109.9 188.9 3.3 40 33.7 45.4 3.4

227.5 5.8 115.8 111.7 191 3.7 40.5 34 45.9 3.6

231.5 6.2 117.6 113.8 193.3 4.1 41 34.2 46.3 3.8

235.5 6.6 119.5 115.9 195.8 4.5 41.5 34.5 46.7 3.9

239.6 7 121.5 118.1 198.4 5 42.1 34.9 47.2 4.1

243.9 7.2 123.6 120.3 201 5.3 42.7 35.2 47.7 4

248.1 7.2 125.5 122.6 203.6 5.3 43.2 35.5 48.2 4

252.3 7.1 127.4 124.9 206.1 5.3 43.8 35.7 48.6 4

256.5 7.1 129.3 127.2 208.7 5.2 44.3 36 49.1 4

2449.9 1.6 98.8 -1.4 2351.1 1.7 151 4.8 538.1 1.2 143.7 296.4 97.3 57.6 0.1 183.1 2.7 437.6 4.3 310 2.5 254.8 1.8 103.6 0.9 34.9 0.5 280.4 -3.6

2458.7 1.9 98.7 -1.1 2359.9 2.1 150.9 4.1 539.8 1.6 143.9 296.8 97.6 57.6 -0.1 183.2 2.1 441.4 4.6 311.7 2.2 255.3 2.1 103.9 1.3 34.9 1.3 281.1 -1.3

2467.8 1.6 98.8 -0.9 2369 1.7 150.5 1.9 541 1.1 144.1 296.8 97.8 57.7 -0.1 182.9 0.8 445 4.1 314.3 2.8 256.1 2.1 104.2 1.4 34.9 1.3 282.3 -1

2477.9 1.6 98.2 -1.3 2379.7 1.7 149.9 0.1 542.8 1.1 144.3 297.8 98.3 57.9 0.6 183.1 0.4 449.8 3.7 315 2.4 257.8 1.6 104.8 1.5 35 0.8 283.5 1.5

2487.6 1.5 97.9 -0.9 2389.6 1.6 149.2 -1.3 544.9 1.3 144.7 299.3 98.9 57.9 0.5 183.1 0 454.2 3.8 316.5 2.1 259.7 1.9 105.3 1.6 35.1 0.5 283.9 1.3

2498.8 1.6 97.6 -1.1 2401.2 1.7 149.3 -1.1 547.8 1.5 145.2 301.1 99.6 57.6 0 183.4 0.1 458.9 3.9 318.1 2 260.3 2 105.7 1.7 35.1 0.7 285 1.4

2512.5 1.8 97.2 -1.7 2415.3 2 149.5 -0.7 550.5 1.7 145.9 303 100.4 57.6 -0.2 184.4 0.8 465.3 4.6 319.8 1.8 261.4 2 105.9 1.7 35.2 0.8 285.8 1.2

2527.9 2 96.7 -1.5 2431.2 2.2 149.9 0 552.8 1.8 146.3 304.5 101.1 58.1 0.3 184.8 0.9 472.7 5.1 321.2 2 262.8 1.9 106.3 1.4 35.3 0.8 287.2 1.3

2544.7 2.3 96.4 -1.6 2448.3 2.5 151.2 1.3 555.2 1.9 146.8 305.9 101.8 58.4 0.8 185.4 1.3 480.4 5.8 323.7 2.3 262.9 1.2 106.6 1.3 35.3 0.8 289.3 1.9

2561.7 2.5 96.1 -1.6 2465.6 2.7 152.3 2 557.6 1.8 147.3 307.5 102.6 58.6 1.7 186 1.4 488.3 6.4 325.8 2.4 263.7 1.3 106.8 1 35.4 0.8 291.1 2.1

2578 2.6 95.9 -1.3 2482.1 2.8 153.6 2.7 558.9 1.5 147.9 307.6 103.5 58.9 2.2 187 1.5 496.8 6.8 328 2.6 264.2 1.1 107 1 35.5 0.8 292.3 2.3

2592.7 2.6 95.7 -1 2497 2.7 154.8 3.3 560.5 1.4 148.4 308.2 104.4 59.2 1.9 187.8 1.6 503.5 6.5 329.5 2.6 265.3 1 107.2 0.9 35.6 0.8 293.5 2.2

2607.3 2.5 95.5 -0.9 2511.8 2.6 156.3 3.4 562 1.2 149.1 308.4 105.3 59.5 1.9 188.8 1.8 509.7 6.1 330.8 2.2 266.4 1.3 107.5 0.9 35.8 1.2 295 2

2622.3 2.4 95.3 -0.9 2527 2.5 157.8 3.6 563.2 1 149.8 308.9 106.1 59.7 1.9 189.9 2.1 516.7 5.8 332 1.9 267.3 1.4 107.7 0.9 36.1 2 296.5 1.9

192205 5502.7 1.2 2772.2 2.8 3.4 33834 16094 17740

193320 5520.3 1.2 2784.6 3.1 3.4 33433 17384 16049

194595 5538.7 1.3 2797 2.9 3.4 33329 18014 15315

195989 5557.9 1.3 2809.5 1.8 3.5 32258 18137 14120

197663 5578.1 1.4 2822.4 1.8 3.5 32397 18231 14166

199357 5599.4 1.4 2836.3 1.9 3.5 32323 18148 14175

201552 5621.5 1.5 2850.7 1.9 3.5 32301 18005 14296

203686 5644.9 1.6 2865.1 2 3.5 32230 17865 14365

206053 5668.4 1.6 2879 2 3.4 32159 17847 14312

208408 5692.4 1.7 2892.2 2 3.4 32297 17881 14416

210669 5716.9 1.7 2905.8 1.9 3.4 32434 17940 14494

212783 5741.8 1.7 2919.4 1.9 3.4 32296 17970 14326

214959 5766.3 1.7 2933 1.9 3.3 32185 18073 14112

217317 5790.8 1.7 2946.5 1.9 3.3 32246 18184 14062

Florida & Metro Forecast

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B each

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach (MD), FL

November 2006 Short-Term Forecast 1999 Personal Income (Billions $)

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

157 8.5 77.8 79.3 157 5.9 31.2 31.2 35.4 5.1

163.9 4.4 82 81.9 160.5 2.2 32 31.3 36.6 3.2

169.8 3.6 84.1 85.7 164 2.2 32.6 31.5 37.6 2.7

172.9 1.8 87.2 85.7 163.8 -0.1 32.7 31 38.8 3.4

183.6 6.2 93 90.6 169.6 3.5 34.2 31.6 40.2 3.6

196.9 7.2 101.3 95.6 176.9 4.3 36.3 32.6 42.2 4.8

207.8 5.5 106.3 101.5 181.1 2.4 37.8 33 43.3 2.6

219.4 5.6 111.8 107.6 186.5 3 39.4 33.5 44.8 3.5

233.5 6.4 118.6 114.9 194.6 4.3 41.3 34.4 46.5 3.9

250.2 7.2 126.4 123.8 204.9 5.3 43.5 35.6 48.4 4

2223.3 -0.1 112.4 -8.6 2110.9 0.4 118.8 -1.1 515.2 -1.5 132 286.1 97.1 61.8 -6.1 162.4 1.8 354 0.6 273.9 4.1 224.5 -1.1 93.6 0.3 32.1 1.3 274.8 2.5

2231.1 0.4 103.4 -8 2127.7 0.8 120.3 1.3 509.8 -1.1 133.9 282 93.9 57.5 -6.9 163.9 1 357.2 0.9 283.3 3.4 228.9 2 95.4 1.9 34.1 6.2 277.4 1

2298.1 3 100.8 -2.5 2197.3 3.3 129.4 7.6 516.3 1.3 138.3 284.8 93.2 56.6 -1.6 169.6 3.5 381.8 6.9 292.6 3.3 239.8 4.7 97.3 2 34.2 0.4 279.9 0.9

2388.5 3.9 100 -0.8 2288.5 4.1 142.8 10.3 528.6 2.4 141 291.8 95.8 57.3 1.3 177.2 4.5 415.4 8.8 300.7 2.8 247.2 3.1 101.2 4 34.6 1.1 283.6 1.3

2444 2.3 99.2 -0.8 2344.8 2.5 149.8 4.9 537.6 1.7 143.4 296.5 97 57.6 0.6 182.6 3 435 4.7 308.8 2.7 253.7 2.6 103.4 2.2 34.7 0.5 281.5 -0.7

2483 1.6 98.2 -1 2384.9 1.7 149.7 -0.1 544.1 1.2 144.6 298.8 98.7 57.8 0.3 183.1 0.3 452 3.9 315.9 2.3 258.5 1.9 105 1.5 35 0.8 283.7 0.8

2536.7 2.2 96.6 -1.6 2440.1 2.3 150.7 0.7 554 1.8 146.5 305.2 101.5 58.2 0.7 185.2 1.1 476.7 5.5 322.6 2.1 262.7 1.6 106.4 1.4 35.3 0.8 288.3 1.6

2600.1 2.5 95.6 -1 2504.5 2.6 155.6 3.3 561.1 1.3 148.8 308.3 104.8 59.3 2 188.4 1.7 506.7 6.3 330.1 2.3 265.8 1.2 107.4 0.9 35.7 1.2 294.3 2.1

139864.4 145374.9 151039.2 154363.2 159873.2 169412.9 182154.3 191261.9 196901.1 204924.5 4944.7 5039.4 5127.1 5213.2 5286.7 5363.1 5430.2 5494.7 5568.5 5656.8 2 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.6 2433.2 2500.4 2545.7 2555.5 2574.5 2617.1 2681.2 2758.8 2816.3 2871.8 0.7 2.8 1.8 0.4 0.7 1.7 2.4 2.9 2.1 2 5.2 4.4 5.3 6.2 5.7 5 4 3.3 3.5 3.4 36342 34456 36290 38407 38960 41565 42253 36389 32577 32247 22865 22853 24052 22356 23961 24128 22919 18272 18133 17900 13477 11602 12237 16051 14999 17437 19334 18116 14444 14347

213932 5753.9 1.7 2926.2 1.9 3.4 32290 18042 14248

144.7 4.9 71.4 73.3 148.3 3.2 29.3 30 33.7 5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2103.1 1.8 138.7 -2.7 1964.4 2.1 108.4 4.1 512.5 2.4 119.3 292.1 101.1 56.2 6.2 155.3 -0.7 296.4 5.3 253.2 0.7 211.3 0.9 92.9 1.4 31.3 0.6 246.9 0.9

2180.1 3.7 133.5 -3.8 2046.6 4.2 117 7.9 521.4 1.7 123.8 296.7 100.9 61.7 9.9 157.5 1.4 326.5 10.2 256.5 1.3 219.3 3.8 95.9 3.2 32.8 4.7 257.9 4.5

2226.2 2.1 122.9 -7.9 2103.3 2.8 120 2.6 523.1 0.3 130.9 293.1 99.1 65.8 6.6 159.4 1.2 351.9 7.8 263 2.5 226.9 3.5 93.3 -2.7 31.7 -3.5 268.1 3.9

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d

The Naples – Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier County only. It is located on the southwest coast of Florida and is notable for its recreation and leisure opportunities. The region is sometimes referred to as the “Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida” and the “Western Gateway to the Florida Everglades.” The area has: • Population estimate of 307,242 for 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A labor force of 151,409 in August 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database). • Unemployment in August of 2006 at 3.6% (Florida Regional Economic Database).

Sh o r t - Te r m Ou t l o o k Naples, along with Orlando, is expected to have the highest growth rate in personal income at 7.2%. This figure is 60 basis points above the state average. Over the next three years, the sector with the most annual growth will be Construction and Mining at 4.6%. Leisure and Hospitality is predicted to grow at 4.1%, and the Professional and Business Services sector are expected to grow at 4%. Naples is the only MSA in the state that is expected to continue to have an increase in housing starts; housing starts are expected to grow, on average, 1.7% over the next three years. This figure is in stark contrast to the predicted 6.7% decline in housing starts for the state. The unemployment rate is Naples is predicted to average 2.7%. Naples is also averaging the highest rate of population growth at 3.2%.

Florida & Metro Forecast

F r o m t he B u s i n e s s P age s • The National Association of Realtors placed two firms in Naples at the peak of their Top 100 high-performing companies list. John R. Wood ranked first in the nation for sales volume per agent with $2.25 billion in sales, while Downing-Frye Realty was fifth in the nation for increases in sales volume. Source: Naples Daily News, July 1, 2006

• Two new Best Buy stores have recently opened in Lee County, bringing the total number of Best Buy stores in Florida to 44. Both stores are about 30,000 square feet, and each should provide 100 new jobs. Source: Naples Daily News, August 16, 2006

• M&I Bank, a private bank in Florida, opened two new branches, one in Naples and the other in Bonita. M&I is expected to open a total of five branches in the Naples area. Source: Naples Daily News, September 20, 2006

• Portions of east Naples have been revitalized over the past several years due to redevelopment and restoration of old plazas. Many of the new businesses are chain restaurants hoping to lure patrons who do not wish to drive far for dining. Source: Naples Daily News, July 8, 2006

Nap l e s â&#x20AC;&#x201C; M a r c o I s l a n d Naples Marco Island MSA Employment Distribution Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0.0

Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0%

(percent)

0.5

1.5

2.0

2.5

Naples Real Gross Metro Product 14000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

12000.0 10000.0 8000.0 6000.0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate

4000.0

(Thousands)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Real Personal Income

Naples Payroll Employment 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0

1.0

12.0%

(percent change year ago)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Naples Payroll Employment

0.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Nap l e s â&#x20AC;&#x201C; M a r c o I s l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

November 2006 Short-Term Forecast 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

14.7 6.7 5.7 9 12.8 3.5 46 39.8 42 2.3

14.9 6.8 5.8 9.2 12.9 3.8 46.3 39.9 42.3 3.9

15.2 7 5.8 9.3 13 3.8 46.6 39.9 42.7 4

15.4 6.7 5.9 9.5 13.1 4 47 40 43.1 3.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

135.2 4 3.3 1.2 131.8 4.1 22.9 11.7 24.8 1.8 3.5 19.4 1.8 1.9 3.2 7.8 2.2 17 1.2 14.7 2.3 23.1 4.3 6 3 0.7 0.8 12.9 3.3

135.9 4 3.3 0.7 132.6 4.1 22.9 8.7 25 2.8 3.5 19.5 1.8 1.9 3.5 7.8 3.1 17.1 1.3 14.8 3 23.3 5.2 6.1 1.5 0.7 0.9 12.9 4.1

136.4 3.6 3.3 -0.1 133.1 3.7 22.8 6.3 25.1 3.6 3.6 19.6 1.9 2 3.6 7.8 -0.1 17.2 0.3 14.9 4.2 23.5 5.3 6.1 3.3 0.7 1.5 13 3.6

137.2 2.4 3.3 0.4 133.9 2.4 22.8 0.7 25.3 2.8 3.6 19.8 1.9 2 5.5 7.8 1.4 17.3 1.9 15 2.7 23.8 4.3 6.1 2 0.7 1.7 13.1 2.1

15.6 6.2 6 9.6 13.3 3.9 47.3 40.1 43.4 3.5

15.9 6.3 6.1 9.8 13.4 3.9 47.7 40.2 43.8 3.5

16.1 6.4 6.2 9.9 13.5 4.3 48.1 40.4 44.3 3.6

16.5 6.8 6.3 10.1 13.7 4.7 48.7 40.7 44.7 3.9

16.8 7.4 6.5 10.3 14 5.3 49.3 41 45.2 4

17.1 7.8 6.6 10.5 14.2 5.8 49.9 41.3 45.7 4.2

17.4 8.1 6.7 10.7 14.4 6.1 50.5 41.6 46.1 4.2

17.8 8.3 6.8 11 14.6 6.4 51.2 42 46.6 4.2

18.2 8.4 7 11.2 14.9 6.5 51.9 42.4 47.1 4.2

18.6 8.4 7.1 11.5 15.1 6.6 52.6 42.8 47.5 4.1

138.1 2.2 3.3 0.2 134.8 2.2 22.6 -1.2 25.6 3.1 3.6 20 1.9 2 5.4 7.9 1.4 17.4 2.3 15.1 2.6 24.1 4.6 6.2 2.3 0.7 1.3 13.2 1.9

139 2.3 3.3 0.1 135.7 2.4 22.7 -1 25.8 3.4 3.6 20.2 1.9 2 4.4 7.9 1.6 17.6 2.6 15.2 2.5 24.3 4.5 6.2 2.4 0.7 1.7 13.2 2.2

140 2.7 3.3 -0.4 136.7 2.7 22.8 0 26.1 3.7 3.7 20.4 1.9 2 3.4 8 2.3 17.8 3.6 15.3 2.6 24.5 4.5 6.2 2.5 0.7 1.7 13.3 2.1

141.2 2.9 3.3 -0.4 137.9 3 22.8 0.4 26.3 3.7 3.7 20.6 2 2.1 3 8 2.4 18.1 4.6 15.4 3.1 24.8 4.1 6.3 2.3 0.7 1.9 13.4 2.3

142.4 3.2 3.3 -0.5 139.1 3.2 23 1.8 26.5 3.6 3.7 20.8 2 2.1 3 8.1 2.6 18.4 5.5 15.6 3.3 24.9 3.2 6.3 2.3 0.7 1.9 13.5 3

143.7 3.4 3.3 -0.6 140.4 3.5 23.3 2.4 26.7 3.5 3.7 21 2 2.1 3.8 8.1 2.5 18.7 6.5 15.7 3.3 25.1 3.2 6.3 2.1 0.7 1.9 13.7 3.4

145 3.5 3.3 -0.4 141.7 3.6 23.5 3.1 26.8 3 3.8 21.1 2 2.1 4.6 8.2 2.9 19.1 7.2 15.8 3.6 25.2 2.9 6.4 2.1 0.7 -3.3 13.8 3.5

146.3 3.6 3.3 -0.2 143 3.7 23.8 4.2 27 2.7 3.8 21.2 2.1 2.2 4.6 8.3 3 19.4 7.1 15.9 3.4 25.4 2.7 6.4 2 0.7 0.3 13.9 3.4

147.5 3.6 3.3 -0.1 144.2 3.6 24.1 4.6 27.1 2.5 3.8 21.3 2.1 2.2 4.6 8.3 3.2 19.6 6.8 16 2.9 25.6 2.9 6.4 2 0.8 4.3 14 3.1

148.8 3.5 3.3 0 145.5 3.6 24.4 5 27.3 2 3.9 21.4 2.1 2.2 4.4 8.4 3.6 19.9 6.7 16.1 2.6 25.8 2.9 6.5 2.1 0.8 8.9 14.1 3

10343 10429.8 10505.1 10604.3 10718.3 10841.1 10985.1 11126.7 11285.2 11446.1 11602.3 11760.9 11924.3 12100.9 320.3 322.8 325.3 327.9 330.4 333 335.5 338.1 340.6 343 345.4 347.9 350.5 353.2 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3 2.9 2.9 2.9 3 152.6 154.1 155.6 157.1 158.6 160 161.4 162.9 164.3 165.7 167.1 168.6 170 171.4 4.7 5.2 5.4 4 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 5421 5489 5674 5675 5774 5853 5926 5999 6058 6132 6197 6202 6175 6165 3915 3878 3843 3819 3807 3799 3814 3821 3833 3836 3834 3825 3817 3813 1506 1611 1831 1856 1967 2054 2113 2178 2224 2297 2364 2377 2359 2352

Florida & Metro Forecast

Nap l e s â&#x20AC;&#x201C; M a r c o I s l a n d

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

November 2006 Short-Term Forecast 1999 Personal Income (Billions $)

9.3 8.3 3 6.4 9.6 6.5 38 38.9 31.6 6.8

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

10 7.2 3.4 6.6 10 4.6 39.2 39.2 33.9 7.2

11.1 10.5 3.7 7.3 10.8 8.2 41.6 40.8 35 3.3

11.6 4.9 4 7.6 11.2 3.5 41.9 40.5 35.6 1.6

12 3.3 4.2 7.7 11.4 1.4 41.7 39.5 37 4

12.7 6 4.7 8 11.7 3.3 42.7 39.4 38.5 4.1

13.7 7.4 5.2 8.4 12.3 4.5 44.3 39.8 40.6 5.3

14.6 6.7 5.6 8.9 12.7 3.5 45.7 39.8 41.7 2.8

15.5 6.6 6 9.5 13.2 3.9 47.2 40.1 43.3 3.7

16.6 7.1 6.4 10.2 13.9 5 49 40.8 45 3.9

18 8.3 6.9 11.1 14.7 6.4 51.6 42.2 46.8 4.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

93.1 3.5 2.9 5.2 90.3 3.5 11.5 8.9 19.8 2.4 2.7 15.5 1.6 1.7 -2.5 5.6 2.2 11.2 3.1 10.4 1.6 15.4 2.1 4.7 4.8 0.6 1.3 9.3 5.4

99.8 7.1 2.9 1.8 96.8 7.3 13.2 13.9 20.8 4.9 2.8 16.3 1.7 1.8 6 5.9 5 12.1 8.4 11.1 6.6 16.7 8.3 4.9 3.9 0.7 20.5 9.7 4.3

106.5 6.7 3.2 9.4 103.3 6.6 14.6 10.7 22.2 7.2 3 17.5 1.8 1.8 0.5 6.2 4.8 12.5 3.5 12.1 9.7 17.4 4 5.1 4.6 0.7 -4.5 10.6 9.1

110.8 4.1 3.1 -3.4 107.7 4.3 14.7 1 22.7 2.1 3.3 17.6 1.9 1.8 -0.9 6.5 4.5 13.4 7.1 12.8 5.1 18.3 5.3 5.5 7 0.7 0 11.3 7.1

114.1 3 2.9 -5.3 111.2 3.3 14.6 -0.8 22.4 -1.3 3.1 17.7 1.7 1.7 -3.3 6.7 2.6 16.1 19.8 13.2 3.3 18.5 1.2 5.5 -0.3 0.7 0 11.8 4.5

120.6 5.7 3.1 5.9 117.5 5.7 16.8 14.8 23 2.4 3.3 18 1.7 1.8 7.3 7.1 5.9 17.4 8.1 13.4 1.9 20 8.2 5.4 -1.4 0.7 0 11.9 1

128.3 6.4 3.3 4.8 125 6.4 20.1 19.7 24.1 5.1 3.5 18.9 1.7 1.9 1.8 7.5 6.8 16.7 -4.1 14.3 6.2 21.7 8.3 5.8 6.9 0.7 0 12.3 3.1

134.2 4.6 3.3 1.7 130.9 4.7 22.5 12.1 24.7 2.2 3.5 19.3 1.8 1.9 3 7.8 3.3 17 2.1 14.6 2.2 22.9 5.2 6 4.5 0.7 0.4 12.8 4.1

137.7 2.6 3.3 0.1 134.4 2.7 22.7 1.1 25.5 3.2 3.6 19.9 1.9 2 4.7 7.9 1.1 17.4 1.8 15 3 23.9 4.7 6.2 2.5 0.7 1.5 13.1 2.5

141.9 3 3.3 -0.5 138.6 3.1 23 1.1 26.4 3.6 3.7 20.7 2 2.1 3.3 8.1 2.5 18.2 5.1 15.5 3 24.8 3.8 6.3 2.3 0.7 1.8 13.5 2.7

146.9 3.5 3.3 -0.2 143.6 3.6 24 4.2 27.1 2.6 3.8 21.3 2.1 2.2 4.5 8.3 3.2 19.5 6.9 16 3.1 25.5 2.8 6.4 2.1 0.7 2.6 13.9 3.2

6091.4 246.1 4.8 99.6 3.4 3.8 6956 3829 3127

6528.5 255.5 3.8 116.1 16.6 3.7 7677 4250 3427

7072.8 265.8 4.1 123.6 6.5 4.1 7602 4111 3491

7515.4 276.9 4.2 128.4 3.9 4.9 7129 4377 2752

7944.6 287.4 3.8 132.5 3.2 4.7 5476 3460 2016

8653.7 298 3.7 138 4.2 3.9 6236 4097 2139

9540.6 308.6 3.6 144.4 4.6 3.2 5811 4108 1703

10247.2 319 3.4 151.4 4.8 2.6 5351 3904 1447

10667.2 329.2 3.2 157.8 4.3 2.8 5744 3817 1927

11210.8 339.3 3.1 163.6 3.6 2.8 6029 3826 2203

11847.1 349.2 2.9 169.3 3.5 2.7 6185 3822 2363

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Oca l a

The Ocala MSA is comprised of Marion County only. It is located northwest of the Orlando area and is in the center of the state. Ocala is home to the Ocala National Forest, the second largest national forest in Florida, and Silver Springs. The area is scattered with fine horse farms and ranches. The area has: • Population estimate of 295,555 for 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A labor force of 128,448 in August 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database). • Unemployment in August of 2006 at 3.5% (Florida Regional Economic Database).

Sh o r t - Te r m Ou t l o o k Ocala’s total personal income is expected to grow, on average, by 7.1% a year for the next three years. This figure is just 10 basis points below Naples and Orlando and 50 basis points greater that Florida’s expected personal-income growth. The Professional and Business Services sector is predicted to experience 3.9% annual growth over the next three years, the greatest sector growth rate in the MSA. Leisure is expected to grow at 3.8%, and Construction and Mining rounds out the top three with predicted growth of 2.9%. Housing starts will decline 7%, on average, over the next three years, although the population is expected to grow 3.1% annually. The unemployment rate is expected to average 3.1%.

Florida & Metro Forecast

F r o m t he B u s i n e s s P age s • Marion County public schools will pay $2.7 million in additional premiums for active employees this year due to health costs rising almost 20%. The school district will pay a total of $18 million in health costs for all employees. Source: The Ocala Star-Banner, September 27, 2006

• Ocala Electric Utility recently reduced fuel charges to customers by $20; the company is expected to drop rates again for the fourth quarter of 2006. Source: The Ocala Star-Banner, September 27, 2006

Oca l a Ocala MSA Employment Distribution Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0.0

Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

(percent)

0.5

1.5

2.0

2.5

Ocala Real Gross Metro Product 10000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

9000.0 8000.0 7000.0 6000.0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate

5000.0

(Thousands)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Gross Metro Product

Ocala Real Personal Income

Ocala Payroll Employment 115.0 110.0 105.0 100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 80.0 75.0

1.0

10.0%

(percent change year ago)

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Ocala Payroll Employment

-2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Oca l a

Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL

November 2006 Short-Term Forecast 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

8.4 6.4 3.4 5 7.3 3.1 26.4 22.9 32.7 2.2

8.5 6.3 3.4 5.1 7.3 3.3 26.6 22.9 33 3.8

8.7 6.7 3.5 5.2 7.4 3.5 26.8 23 33.2 3.9

8.8 6.9 3.5 5.3 7.5 4.2 27 23 33.5 3.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

8.9 6.7 3.6 5.4 7.6 4.4 27.3 23.1 33.8 3.3

9.1 6.7 3.6 5.5 7.7 4.4 27.5 23.2 34 3.3

9.2 6.8 3.7 5.6 7.8 4.7 27.8 23.3 34.4 3.4

9.4 7.1 3.7 5.7 7.9 5 28.1 23.5 34.7 3.7

9.6 7.5 3.8 5.8 8 5.4 28.5 23.7 35 3.8

9.8 7.8 3.9 5.9 8.1 5.8 28.9 23.9 35.4 4

10 7.8 3.9 6.1 8.2 5.8 29.2 24.1 35.8 4

10.2 7.8 4 6.2 8.3 5.9 29.6 24.3 36.1 4

10.4 7.8 4 6.3 8.5 5.9 30.1 24.6 36.5 4

10.6 7.8 4.1 6.5 8.6 5.9 30.5 24.8 36.8 4

102.9 2.3 10 -0.1 92.9 2.5 10.5 8.4 22.7 -0.5 4 16.4 2.2 2.1 1.1 5.6 1.9 9.1 2.7 12.2 2.8 10 4.3 4.3 3.2 0.7 1.1 15.8 2.3

103.4 2.1 10 -0.9 93.4 2.4 10.5 5.2 22.8 1.1 4 16.5 2.2 2.1 2.2 5.6 2.2 9.2 3 12.3 2.7 10 4 4.3 3.2 0.7 0.2 15.9 1.1

103.9 2 10.1 -0.1 93.8 2.2 10.5 2 23 1.2 4 16.6 2.3 2.2 2.8 5.6 1.5 9.2 3.1 12.4 2.9 10.1 4.2 4.3 2.8 0.7 0.9 16 1.5

104.4 2 10 -0.3 94.4 2.3 10.5 0.8 23.1 2.6 4 16.7 2.3 2.2 3.7 5.6 1 9.3 1.9 12.4 2.6 10.3 4.4 4.3 1.8 0.7 1.4 16 1.9

104.9 1.9 10 0 94.9 2.1 10.4 -1 23.3 2.9 4.1 16.9 2.3 2.2 3.1 5.6 1 9.3 2.1 12.5 2.4 10.4 4.7 4.3 2 0.7 0.9 16.1 1.6

105.5 2 10 -0.3 95.5 2.2 10.4 -0.9 23.5 3.1 4.1 17 2.3 2.2 2.2 5.6 1.3 9.4 2.3 12.6 2.2 10.5 4.7 4.4 2.1 0.7 1.3 16.2 1.9

106.2 2.2 10 -0.9 96.2 2.5 10.5 0 23.7 3.3 4.1 17.2 2.3 2.2 1.6 5.7 2 9.5 3.2 12.6 2.1 10.6 4.7 4.4 2.2 0.7 1.3 16.3 1.9

106.8 2.3 9.9 -0.9 96.9 2.7 10.5 0.3 23.9 3.4 4.1 17.4 2.4 2.2 1.8 5.7 2 9.7 4.1 12.7 2.5 10.7 4.2 4.4 1.9 0.7 1.5 16.4 2.2

107.5 2.5 9.9 -1 97.6 2.9 10.6 1.4 24.1 3.2 4.1 17.5 2.4 2.2 2.2 5.7 2.2 9.8 5 12.8 2.8 10.7 3.1 4.4 1.8 0.7 1.4 16.6 2.9

108.3 2.7 9.9 -1.1 98.4 3 10.6 1.8 24.2 3 4.1 17.7 2.4 2.3 3.1 5.8 2 9.9 5.7 12.9 2.9 10.8 2.9 4.4 1.6 0.7 1.4 16.7 3.3

108.9 2.6 9.9 -0.9 99.1 3 10.7 2.3 24.3 2.5 4.1 17.8 2.5 2.3 3.4 5.8 2.2 10.1 6.2 13 3.1 10.9 2.5 4.4 1.6 0.7 -3.1 16.8 3.3

109.7 2.7 9.9 -0.5 99.8 3 10.8 3.2 24.4 2.2 4.2 17.9 2.5 2.3 2.9 5.8 2.3 10.2 6.2 13.1 3 11 2.3 4.5 1.5 0.7 -0.1 16.9 3.2

110.3 2.6 9.9 -0.3 100.5 2.9 10.9 3.5 24.5 2 4.2 17.9 2.5 2.3 2.9 5.9 2.5 10.4 5.9 13.2 2.6 11 2.7 4.5 1.4 0.7 3.3 17 2.9

111 2.5 9.9 -0.2 101.2 2.8 11 3.9 24.6 1.6 4.2 18 2.5 2.3 2.7 5.9 2.8 10.5 5.7 13.2 2.3 11.1 2.7 4.5 1.6 0.8 7.3 17.2 2.7

8634.1 317.9 3.7 127.5 2.9 3 6557 6135 422

8701.4 320.5 3.6 128.4 3 3 6234 5903 331

8769.8 323.1 3.5 129.3 3.1 3.1 6030 5783 246

8842.6 325.6 3.3 130.2 2.8 3.1 5877 5688 189

8928.9 328.1 3.2 131 2.7 3.2 5811 5630 181

9019.9 330.6 3.2 131.8 2.7 3.2 5752 5580 173

9131.2 332.9 3 132.6 2.6 3.2 5691 5536 156

9232.6 335 2.9 133.4 2.5 3.2 5622 5467 155

9343.5 337.1 2.7 134.2 2.4 3.2 5548 5398 150

9455.3 339.1 2.6 135 2.4 3.2 5481 5326 155

9560.1 341.1 2.5 135.8 2.4 3.1 5393 5236 156

9666.7 342.9 2.4 136.5 2.3 3.1 5341 5182 158

9774.4 344.9 2.3 137.3 2.3 3.1 5300 5147 154

9890.7 346.8 2.3 138 2.3 3.1 5270 5117 153

Florida & Metro Forecast

Oca l a

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

November 2006 Short-Term Forecast 1999 Personal Income (Billions $)

5.5 6.1 2.1 3.4 5.6 4.3 21.5 22 25.2 3.2

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

5.9 7.2 2.2 3.7 5.9 4.6 22.6 22.6 26 2.9

6.2 4.5 2.3 3.8 6 2.3 23.1 22.7 27 4

6.3 2.2 2.4 3.9 6.1 0.8 23 22.2 28.2 4.4

6.7 6.2 2.6 4 6.3 4.2 23.7 22.4 29.6 4.9

7.2 8 2.9 4.3 6.7 5.3 24.6 22.7 30.3 2.5

7.8 8.2 3.2 4.6 7 5.2 25.6 23 31.6 4.2

8.3 6.3 3.4 5 7.2 3.2 26.3 22.9 32.5 2.8

8.9 6.8 3.5 5.3 7.5 4.1 27.1 23.1 33.6 3.5

9.5 7.3 3.8 5.8 7.9 5.2 28.3 23.6 34.9 3.7

10.3 7.8 4 6.3 8.4 5.9 29.8 24.4 36.3 4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

83.5 2.5 11.3 0.5 72.2 2.8 6.3 2.2 19.4 1.8 2.7 14.3 2.4 2.5 1.7 3.8 3.6 7.4 10.3 8.2 2 7.3 0.2 3.2 4.4 0.7 7.3 13.5 1.8

85.6 2.5 11.1 -1.8 74.5 3.2 6.3 0.7 20 3.4 2.8 15.1 2.2 2.6 3.7 3.9 1.1 7.7 4.3 8.5 4.1 7.1 -1.9 3.4 7.9 0.9 21.8 14.1 4.2

85.4 -0.2 9.9 -10.7 75.5 1.3 6.1 -2.6 20.3 1.3 3 14.9 2.4 2.4 -6.5 3.9 1.7 7.2 -6.4 9.2 7.7 7.6 6.1 3.5 1.9 0.7 -18.9 14.6 3.5

85.7 0.4 9.3 -5.5 76.4 1.2 6.4 4.9 20.1 -0.8 3.1 14.8 2.2 2.3 -4.5 4 1.1 7.2 0.4 9.7 5.3 7.6 0.3 3.6 3.6 0.7 2.3 14.7 0.7

88.6 3.4 9.2 -1 79.4 4 7.6 17.5 20.5 2 3.3 15.1 2.1 2.2 -5.1 4.3 9.2 7.6 4.8 10.5 8.5 7.7 0.9 3.6 -1.6 0.7 -2.2 14.7 0.4

94.6 6.7 9.6 4.1 85 7 9 18.7 21.3 3.7 3.7 15.6 2.1 2.2 1.2 4.9 12.5 8.2 7.5 11.1 6 8.7 13.1 3.8 7.7 0.7 0.1 15.1 2.4

100.1 5.8 9.9 3.5 90.1 6.1 9.7 8.4 22.5 5.7 3.9 16.4 2.2 2.1 -3.1 5.4 10.4 8.9 8.6 11.8 5.9 9.5 9.1 4.1 7.2 0.7 0 15.4 2.2

102.6 2.6 10 1 92.6 2.8 10.4 7.2 22.7 0.7 4 16.4 2.2 2.1 -0.8 5.5 2.8 9.1 2.5 12.1 3 9.9 4.4 4.2 3 0.7 0.4 15.8 2.4

104.7 2 10 -0.2 94.7 2.2 10.4 0.2 23.2 2.5 4.1 16.8 2.3 2.2 2.9 5.6 1.2 9.3 2.4 12.5 2.5 10.3 4.5 4.3 2.1 0.7 1.1 16.1 1.7

107.2 2.4 9.9 -1 97.3 2.8 10.5 0.9 24 3.2 4.1 17.5 2.4 2.2 2.2 5.7 2 9.7 4.5 12.8 2.5 10.7 3.7 4.4 1.9 0.7 1.4 16.5 2.6

110 2.6 9.9 -0.5 100.1 2.9 10.9 3.2 24.5 2.1 4.2 17.9 2.5 2.3 3 5.9 2.5 10.3 6 13.1 2.7 11 2.6 4.5 1.5 0.7 1.9 17 3

5909.7 255.7 2 102.7 1.9 3.8 2832 2741 91

6083 260.9 2 109.2 6.4 4 2507 2441 66

6173 266.1 2 109.3 0.1 5 3246 3220 26

6356.5 273.5 2.8 110.2 0.9 5.8 5836 5342 494

6769.1 282.4 3.2 113.5 2.9 5.2 6832 6081 751

7433.3 293.3 3.9 118.5 4.5 4.5 5185 5096 89

8127.9 304.9 4 123.2 3.9 3.6 7284 6724 560

8583.2 316.4 3.8 127 3.1 3 7589 7087 502

8890.3 326.9 3.3 130.6 2.8 3.2 5867 5670 197

9290.6 336 2.8 133.8 2.5 3.2 5585 5432 154

9723 343.9 2.3 136.9 2.3 3.1 5326 5171 155

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O r l a n d o – K i s s immee

The Orlando – Kissimmee MSA is comprised of Lake County, Orange County, Osceola County, and Seminole County. Located in the southern center of the state, it is home to Walt Disney World, Universal Studios, Sea World, Orlando Magic, Gatorland, and the University of Central Florida. The area has: • MSA’s population estimate of 1,903,273 for 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Lake County population estimate of 273,277 for 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Orange County population estimate of 1,002,849 for 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Osceola County population estimate of 229,134 for 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Seminole County population estimate of 398,013 for 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A labor force of 1,067,062 in August 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database). • Unemployment in August of 2006 at 3.2% (Florida Regional Economic Database).

is expected to grow 3.7%. Construction and Mining while cooling significantly in 2007 will still grow on average 3.6% through 2009. Population growth in Orlando is expected to average 3.1% annually over the next three years, a figure that is 100 basis points above the state average; only Naples’ MSA matches Orlando in population growth. Orlando’s unemployment rate of 2.9% is expected to remain below the state average of 3.2%

F r o m t he B u s i n e s s P age s • Orange County is opening nine new schools – six elementary schools and three middle schools. These schools will add 8,625 additional seats in 402 classrooms. Funding to build the nine schools, which will cost $190 million, came from Certificates of Participation, Classrooms for Kids, and impact fees. Source: Orlando Business Journal, July 21, 2006

• Jaymor-Reed Development, Inc. plans to build a 24-story condominium at an estimated cost of $42.8 million. It will anchor the corners of Jackson, South, and Liberty Streets in the south Eola district. Source: Orlando Business Journal, July 31, 2006

Sh o r t - Te r m Ou t l o o k Orlando and Naples are expected to have the largest growth in personal income over the next three years, with an average increase of 7.2% each year. Professional and Business Services are expected to grow an average of 6.2% each year for the next three years and Education and Health Services

• The Burnham Institute for Medical Research selected Orlando for the construction of a new facility. The institute is expected to create 300 new jobs over the next decade. State incentives of $150 million, along with an expected private match, helped lure the institute to the region. It is expected to be

Continued 60

Florida & Metro Forecast

O r l a n d o – K i s s immee

partnered with the University of Central Florida’s Medical School, the proposed Veterans Affairs Hospital, and the University of Florida. Source: The Associated Press, August 24, 2006

• The Orlando Magic has agreed to support the construction of a new events facility, pledging $204 million in support. The center will be built at the southwest corner of Church Street and Hughey Avenue, with construction starting in early 2008. Orlando Business Journal - September 29, 2006

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O r l a n d o â&#x20AC;&#x201C; K i s s immee Orlando-Kissimee MSA Employment Distribution Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0.0

Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

(percent)

0.5

1.5

2.0

Orlando Real Gross Metro Product 100000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

90000.0 80000.0 70000.0 60000.0 50000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate

40000.0

(Thousands)

1200.0

10.0%

1100.0

8.0%

1000.0

6.0%

900.0

4.0%

800.0

2.0%

700.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 OrlandoPayroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Gross Metro Product

Orlando Real Personal Income

Orlando Payroll Employment

1.0

0.0%

(percent change year ago)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Personal Income

O r l a n d o â&#x20AC;&#x201C; K i s s immee

Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

November 2006 Short-Term Forecast 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

65.2 6.4 42.5 22.7 56.5 3.2 32.3 28 39 1.9

66.3 7.1 43.2 23.1 57.2 4.1 32.5 28.1 39.4 3.6

67.4 7.1 43.9 23.5 57.8 3.8 32.9 28.2 39.7 3.8

68.5 7.1 44.6 24 58.4 4.4 33.2 28.2 40 3.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1084.6 3.7 45.5 -0.5 1039.1 3.9 86.6 8 200.3 2.5 47.3 124.6 27.8 27.2 1.5 65.9 4 197.4 5.9 105.7 5 191.4 2.9 50.6 2 11.8 -0.9 102.1 2.6

1093 3.4 45.5 -0.5 1047.5 3.6 86.7 6.1 201.8 2.6 47.6 125.4 28 27.4 1.9 66.2 3.6 200.5 5.9 106.9 5.1 192.6 2 51.1 2.3 11.8 0.4 102.5 2.3

1101.4 3.1 45.6 -0.4 1055.8 3.3 86.6 2.3 203.1 2.2 47.8 125.9 28 27.6 2.8 66.5 2.5 203.3 5.7 108.4 5.7 194.1 2.1 51.4 3.1 11.8 1.1 103.1 2.3

1110.2 3.3 45.4 -0.8 1064.8 3.5 86.4 0.8 204.6 2.8 48.1 126.8 28.3 27.9 3 66.9 2.4 206.3 6.2 109.1 4.5 196.3 3.5 51.9 3.5 11.8 1 103.6 1.9

69.6 6.9 45.3 24.4 59 4.5 33.4 28.4 40.3 3.3

70.8 6.8 46 24.7 59.7 4.4 33.7 28.5 40.7 3.4

72.1 6.8 46.9 25.2 60.5 4.7 34.1 28.6 41.2 3.6

73.4 7.1 47.7 25.7 61.3 5 34.5 28.8 41.5 3.8

74.8 7.4 48.5 26.2 62.2 5.3 34.9 29.1 41.9 3.9

76.2 7.7 49.4 26.8 63.1 5.7 35.4 29.3 42.4 4.1

77.7 7.8 50.3 27.3 64 5.8 35.8 29.5 42.8 4

79.1 7.8 51.2 27.9 64.9 5.9 36.3 29.8 43.2 4

80.6 7.8 52.1 28.5 65.9 5.9 36.7 30 43.6 4

82.1 7.7 53 29 66.8 5.8 37.2 30.2 44.1 4

1118.6 3.1 45.4 -0.3 1073.2 3.3 86 -0.6 206.2 2.9 48.4 128 28.6 28 2.9 67.1 1.9 209.1 5.9 110 4 198.6 3.8 52.4 3.5 11.9 0.7 103.9 1.7

1126.9 3.1 45.3 -0.4 1081.5 3.2 86.3 -0.5 208 3.1 48.7 129.4 28.8 28 2.2 67.5 1.9 211.9 5.7 110.9 3.8 199.8 3.7 52.8 3.4 11.9 0.9 104.4 1.9

1135.5 3.1 45.2 -0.9 1090.2 3.3 86.4 -0.2 209.7 3.2 49.1 130.8 29.1 28.1 1.6 68 2.3 215.3 5.9 111.8 3.2 201.1 3.6 53.1 3.2 11.9 1 104.9 1.8

1144.4 3.1 45.1 -0.8 1099.4 3.2 86.7 0.4 211.1 3.2 49.3 131.8 29.4 28.3 1.4 68.3 2.2 219 6.1 112.5 3.1 202.5 3.2 53.4 2.8 11.9 1.1 105.6 1.9

1153.6 3.1 45 -0.8 1108.6 3.3 87.6 1.8 212.5 3.1 49.6 132.8 29.7 28.5 1.5 68.7 2.3 222.6 6.4 113.6 3.3 203.1 2.3 53.6 2.4 12 1.1 106.6 2.6

1163.1 3.2 45 -0.8 1118.1 3.4 88.3 2.4 214 2.9 49.9 134 30 28.6 2.1 69 2.1 226.3 6.8 114.6 3.3 204.1 2.1 53.8 1.9 12 1.1 107.4 2.9

1172.6 3.3 45 -0.5 1127.6 3.4 89.3 3.3 214.8 2.5 50.2 134.5 30.3 28.9 2.8 69.4 2.1 230.5 7 115.6 3.4 205 2 54 1.8 12.1 1.1 108.1 3.1

1181.6 3.2 45.1 -0.1 1136.5 3.4 90.1 3.9 215.9 2.3 50.5 135.2 30.6 29.1 2.7 69.8 2.2 233.8 6.8 116.4 3.4 206.3 1.9 54.3 1.7 12.1 1.2 108.8 3.1

1190.6 3.2 45.1 0.2 1145.5 3.3 91.2 4.1 216.8 2 50.9 135.7 30.9 29.3 2.8 70.3 2.4 236.8 6.4 117.1 3.1 207.7 2.3 54.5 1.7 12.2 1.5 109.7 2.9

1199.7 3.2 45.1 0.3 1154.6 3.3 92.2 4.4 217.7 1.8 51.3 136.4 31.2 29.5 2.8 70.7 2.5 240.3 6.2 117.8 2.8 208.8 2.3 54.7 1.8 12.3 2.4 110.5 2.8

79755.5 80548.6 81374.6 82244.7 83222.8 84189.4 85306.1 86348.9 87502.2 88656.8 89804.4 90882.7 92003.9 93208.9 2020 2036.1 2051.8 2067.3 2082.5 2097.5 2112.2 2126.3 2140 2153.7 2167.3 2181 2194.6 2208.3 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 1056.8 1065 1073 1080.8 1088.5 1096.1 1103.6 1111 1118.2 1125.6 1132.6 1139.6 1146.4 1153.2 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.1 3 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 30110 28795 27996 27109 26948 26909 26782 26712 26589 26502 26358 26155 26036 26022 24613 23599 22681 22063 21613 21427 21257 21098 20949 20804 20658 20529 20462 20438 5497 5196 5315 5046 5334 5482 5526 5613 5640 5698 5700 5626 5574 5584

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O r l a n d o â&#x20AC;&#x201C; K i s s immee

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

November 2006 Short-Term Forecast 1999 Personal Income (Billions $)

41.2 7.8 26.3 14.9 42.2 6 25.5 26.1 29.8 4

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

44.7 8.6 28.7 16.1 44.7 6 26.9 26.9 31.3 5.2

46.4 3.6 29.6 16.7 45.4 1.5 27.1 26.5 32.2 2.8

48.3 4.3 30.6 17.7 46.7 2.8 27.4 26.5 33.5 4

50.8 5.2 32.3 18.5 48.2 3.2 28.1 26.6 34.6 3.3

55.1 8.4 35.4 19.7 50.9 5.7 29.4 27.2 36 4.1

60.5 9.7 39.5 21 54.3 6.7 31.1 28 37.9 5.1

64.6 6.8 42.1 22.5 56.3 3.7 32.1 28 38.9 2.6

69.1 7 44.9 24.1 58.7 4.3 33.3 28.3 40.2 3.5

74.1 7.3 48.1 26 61.8 5.2 34.7 29 41.8 3.9

79.9 7.8 51.7 28.2 65.4 5.9 36.5 29.9 43.4 4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

Florida & Metro Forecast

878.3 4.6 51.9 0.3 826.4 4.9 53.5 6.8 172.4 4.4 37.2 106.1 29.1 24.8 7.6 53.3 5.1 135 8.2 83.4 0.6 176.8 5.3 38.1 4.7 9.6 0.8 79.5 2.9

911.5 3.8 51 -1.6 860.4 4.1 55.6 3.9 179.7 4.2 40.6 109.6 29.5 25.5 2.8 54.4 2.1 151.3 12.1 85.5 2.5 177 0.1 39.7 4.2 10.2 6.6 81.6 2.7

915.9 0.5 48.1 -5.7 867.8 0.9 55.7 0.2 178.2 -0.8 41.9 106.7 29.6 25 -1.9 54.2 -0.4 159.1 5.2 87 1.7 170.6 -3.6 42.4 7 10.3 0.7 85.3 4.5

908.2 -0.8 44.4 -7.7 863.8 -0.5 56.8 2 171.6 -3.7 39.6 104.8 27.3 24.5 -1.9 54.7 1 155.8 -2.1 89.4 2.7 165 -3.3 45.4 6.9 10.4 1.2 90.2 5.8

929.1 2.3 42.2 -5 886.9 2.7 61.4 8 173.4 1 40 107.4 25.9 25.1 2.3 57.4 4.8 156.9 0.7 93.6 4.7 169.9 3 45.7 0.7 11.1 6.9 92.6 2.6

978.7 5.3 43.1 2.3 935.6 5.5 69.6 13.4 181.6 4.8 41.9 113.5 26.2 25.8 2.8 59.5 3.7 168.2 7.2 97.3 4 179.4 5.6 47.5 4 11.2 1.2 95.4 3

1038.8 6.1 45.3 4.9 993.5 6.2 79 13.5 193.6 6.6 44.9 121 27.7 26.6 3.4 63 5.9 185.1 10 100.8 3.6 185.3 3.3 49.4 3.9 11.8 5.2 98.8 3.6

1080 4 45.6 0.8 1034.3 4.1 85.9 8.7 199.9 3.3 47.1 124.6 27.9 27.2 2 65.6 4.1 196.1 6 104.9 4 190.9 3 50.4 2.1 11.7 -0.8 101.8 3

1114.3 3.2 45.4 -0.4 1068.8 3.3 86.3 0.5 205.5 2.8 48.2 127.5 28.4 27.9 2.7 67 2.2 207.6 5.9 109.6 4.5 197.2 3.3 52.1 3.4 11.8 0.9 103.8 2

1149.1 3.1 45.1 -0.8 1104.1 3.3 87.3 1.1 211.8 3.1 49.5 132.4 29.5 28.4 1.7 68.5 2.2 220.8 6.3 113.1 3.2 202.7 2.8 53.5 2.6 12 1.1 106.1 2.3

1186.1 3.2 45.1 0 1141.1 3.4 90.7 3.9 216.3 2.1 50.7 135.4 30.8 29.2 2.8 70.1 2.3 235.4 6.6 116.7 3.2 206.9 2.1 54.4 1.7 12.2 1.6 109.3 3

53871.9 1614.7 2.7 921.7 4.2 2.8 29028 17309 11719

56295.9 1662.9 3 895.2 -2.9 3.1 26462 16078 10383

57778.6 1712.5 3 910.2 1.7 4.2 24343 17524 6818

58748 1760.3 2.8 914.4 0.5 5.7 25493 17843 7651

61973.1 1810.2 2.8 934.3 2.2 5.2 28075 22679 5396

67207.6 1872.3 3.4 967.7 3.6 4.4 32965 26701 6265

74119.2 1942 3.7 1010.2 4.4 3.5 34375 27325 7050

79207.3 2011.4 3.6 1051.6 4.1 2.9 31668 26354 5314

82757.9 2074.8 3.2 1084.6 3.1 2.9 27240 21946 5294

86953.5 2133.1 2.8 1114.6 2.8 2.9 26646 21027 5619

91475 2187.8 2.6 1142.9 2.5 2.8 26143 20522 5621

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s v i l l e

The Palm Bay – Melbourne - Titusville MSA is comprised of Brevard County only. It is located centrally on the east coast of Florida. The region is home to the Kennedy Space Center, Harris Corporation, Patrick Air Force Base, Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, and is typically known as Florida’s “Space Coast.” Interestingly enough, Port Canaveral has become a leading cruise ship port. The area has: • Population estimate of 521,226 for 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A labor force of 261,181 in August 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database). • Unemployment in August of 2006 at 3.4%,(Florida Regional Economic Database).

Sh o r t - Te r m Ou t l o o k

F r o m t he B u s i n e s s P age s • Harris Corporation reports a 4th quarter jump in revenue. The increase was 21% over the same period of the previous year. Profits rose 39%. Source: Orlando Business Journal, July 27, 2006

• NASA will be selecting a master developer for a 350-acre technology and commercial park. Source: Orlando Business Journal, July 28, 2006

• Harris Corporation receives a $12.5 million Boeing contract to provide the Distributed Targeting Processor and the companion mass storage unit. Source: Orlando Business Journal, August 8, 2006

• Stirling Sotheby’s announces the opening of a Brevard real-estate gallery. Source: Orlando Business Journal, August 18, 2006

Total personal income growth for Palm Bay – Melbourne – Titusville is expected to be 6.4% annually; this figure is 20 basis points below the state average. Both the Leisure and Hospitality sector and Professional and Business Services sector are predicted to grow, on average, 3.2% annually. The information sector is expected to grow 2.8%. The unemployment rate of Palm Bay – Melbourne – Titusville is projected to average 3.1% over the next three years, which is 10 basis points below Florida. Population growth is expected to average 2.1% annually, on par with the state.

• Brevard County demonstrates a high propensity to save by an A. G. Edwards survey. Source: Florida Today, September 22, 2006

• The Brevard County School Board approved raises for assistant principals. Source: Florida Today, September 22, 2006

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P a l m B a y â&#x20AC;&#x201C; M e l b o u r n e â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Ti t u s v i l l e Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville MSA Employment Distribution Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0.0

Florida & Palm Bay Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

(percent)

0.5

2.0

2.5

20000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

18000.0 16000.0 14000.0 12000.0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 FL Unemployment Rate Palm Bay Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

230.0 220.0

10000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Gross Metro Product

Palm Bay Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

8.0%

210.0

6.0%

200.0

4.0%

190.0

2.0%

180.0

1.5

Palm Bay Real Gross Metro Product

Palm Bay Payroll Employment

170.0

1.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Palm Bay Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast

0.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Personal Income

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

November 2006 Short-Term Forecast 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

18 5.3 9.3 8.6 15.6 2.1 32.9 28.5 42.7 2.2

18.2 5.6 9.4 8.8 15.7 2.6 33.2 28.6 43 3.8

18.5 6 9.5 8.9 15.8 2.8 33.5 28.7 43.4 3.9

18.8 6.1 9.6 9.1 16 3.3 33.8 28.8 43.7 3.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

215.2 1.4 22.5 -3.1 192.7 2 18.4 6.2 37.4 0.3 5.4 27.9 4 2.8 1.3 8.4 0.3 39.7 2.3 27.6 1.6 21.7 3.3 8.3 -0.5 6.1 1.8 22.3 1.6

216 1.4 22.5 -1.4 193.5 1.7 18.4 2.7 37.6 1.5 5.4 28 4 2.9 1.7 8.4 1.5 39.8 2.4 27.8 1.5 21.9 2 8.3 -1 6.1 1.5 22.4 1.2

216.7 1.5 22.6 -1.5 194.1 1.8 18.3 1.8 37.8 1.8 5.5 28.1 4.1 2.9 2.3 8.4 1 39.8 2.1 27.9 2.3 22.1 2.2 8.3 1.2 6.2 0.5 22.5 1.4

217.5 1.5 22.6 0.4 194.9 1.7 18.3 0.6 38 2.1 5.5 28.2 4.1 2.9 4 8.4 0.8 40 0.9 28 2.1 22.3 3.7 8.4 0.7 6.2 0.5 22.6 1.4

19 5.9 9.8 9.3 16.1 3.6 34.1 28.9 44.1 3.3

19.3 6 9.9 9.4 16.3 3.6 34.4 29 44.5 3.3

19.6 6.1 10 9.6 16.5 4 34.8 29.2 44.9 3.4

20 6.5 10.2 9.8 16.7 4.4 35.3 29.5 45.3 3.7

20.3 6.9 10.4 10 16.9 4.8 35.7 29.7 45.8 3.8

20.7 7.3 10.5 10.2 17.1 5.3 36.2 29.9 46.2 4

21.1 7.3 10.7 10.4 17.4 5.4 36.6 30.2 46.7 4

21.4 7.3 10.9 10.6 17.6 5.5 37.1 30.4 47.2 4

21.8 7.4 11 10.8 17.8 5.5 37.5 30.7 47.6 4

22.2 7.3 11.2 11 18.1 5.5 38 30.9 48.1 4

218.3 1.5 22.6 0.4 195.8 1.6 18.2 -1.1 38.3 2.4 5.5 28.5 4.1 2.9 3.8 8.4 0.7 40.1 1.2 28.1 1.9 22.6 3.9 8.4 0.9 6.2 0.4 22.6 1.2

219.4 1.6 22.6 0.3 196.8 1.7 18.2 -1 38.6 2.7 5.5 28.8 4.2 2.9 2.8 8.5 1 40.4 1.4 28.2 1.7 22.7 3.8 8.4 1.1 6.2 0.5 22.7 1.4

220.6 1.8 22.6 -0.2 198 2 18.3 -0.1 38.9 2.9 5.6 29 4.2 2.9 1.9 8.5 1.5 40.8 2.3 28.4 1.6 22.9 3.8 8.4 1.3 6.2 0.5 22.8 1.4

221.9 2 22.5 -0.2 199.3 2.3 18.3 0.2 39.1 3 5.6 29.2 4.2 3 1.6 8.5 1.5 41.3 3.2 28.5 2 23.1 3.4 8.4 1 6.2 0.5 22.9 1.6

223.2 2.2 22.5 -0.3 200.7 2.5 18.4 1.3 39.4 2.8 5.6 29.4 4.3 3 1.7 8.6 1.7 41.8 4.1 28.8 2.3 23.1 2.5 8.5 1 6.2 0.5 23.1 2.3

224.6 2.4 22.5 -0.4 202.1 2.7 18.5 1.6 39.6 2.6 5.7 29.7 4.3 3 2.4 8.6 1.6 42.3 4.8 28.9 2.5 23.2 2.3 8.5 0.8 6.2 0.5 23.3 2.6

226 2.4 22.5 -0.1 203.4 2.7 18.7 2 39.7 2.1 5.7 29.8 4.3 3 3.1 8.6 1.8 42.9 5.3 29.1 2.7 23.3 2 8.5 0.8 6.1 -1 23.4 2.6

227.3 2.5 22.5 0.1 204.8 2.7 18.8 2.9 39.8 1.8 5.7 29.9 4.4 3.1 3 8.7 1.9 43.4 5.3 29.3 2.6 23.5 1.8 8.5 0.7 6.2 0 23.5 2.5

228.6 2.4 22.5 0.2 206 2.6 19 3.2 40 1.6 5.8 29.9 4.4 3.1 3 8.7 2.1 43.9 5 29.4 2.2 23.6 2 8.5 0.6 6.3 1.5 23.6 2.2

229.9 2.3 22.5 0.2 207.4 2.6 19.2 3.5 40.1 1.1 5.8 30 4.4 3.1 2.8 8.8 2.4 44.4 4.9 29.5 1.9 23.7 2 8.5 0.8 6.4 3.5 23.8 2.1

16987.4 17090.9 17193.7 17313.7 17459.2 17612.3 17806.2 17984.6 18181.7 18378.3 18563.7 18755.3 18949.4 19159.3 546 548.8 551.8 554.8 557.7 560.6 563.5 566.5 569.4 572.3 575.2 578.3 581.5 584.7 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 259.3 261 262.7 264.3 265.9 267.4 268.9 270.4 271.9 273.3 274.7 276.2 277.6 279 2.4 3 3 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 3 3 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 6648 6443 6452 6315 6438 6505 6564 6525 6462 6431 6384 6348 6319 6308 5367 5267 5261 5245 5363 5418 5491 5451 5411 5366 5313 5279 5264 5253 1282 1176 1190 1070 1076 1087 1073 1074 1051 1065 1071 1069 1054 1055

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

November 2006 Short-Term Forecast 1999 Personal Income (Billions $)

11.6 4.2 5.8 5.8 11.9 2.5 24.6 25.2 30.7 2.4

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

12.9 10.8 6.4 6.5 12.9 8.1 26.9 26.9 32.8 6.8

13.3 3.6 6.7 6.6 13.1 1.5 27.3 26.8 34.1 3.7

13.9 3.9 6.9 7 13.4 2.5 27.9 26.9 35.2 3.4

14.5 4.9 7.4 7.2 13.8 2.9 28.6 27.1 36.8 4.4

15.6 7.6 8.1 7.6 14.4 4.9 30.1 27.8 38.7 5.1

16.9 8.1 8.9 8 15.2 5.1 31.7 28.5 41.3 6.8

17.8 5.4 9.3 8.6 15.5 2.3 32.7 28.5 42.5 2.8

18.9 6 9.7 9.2 16.1 3.3 34 28.9 43.9 3.5

20.2 6.7 10.3 9.9 16.8 4.6 35.5 29.6 45.6 3.7

21.6 7.3 10.9 10.7 17.7 5.5 37.3 30.5 47.4 4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

Florida & Metro Forecast

185 1.3 25.7 -3.5 159.3 2.1 11.5 3.6 33.5 4.4 5 25.4 3.1 2.8 -5.9 6.6 2.7 31.6 0.3 22.8 2.8 18.2 2.2 7.4 1.3 5.5 -1.5 19.4 1.8

191.5 3.5 24.8 -3.4 166.7 4.6 12.5 8.5 34.1 1.6 5 26.2 2.8 3.1 8.5 6.7 1.7 34.7 9.8 23.9 4.9 18.1 -0.3 7.7 3.7 5.7 3.9 20.3 4.4

193.3 0.9 23.8 -4 169.5 1.7 13.2 5.1 34.8 2.1 5 26.8 3 3.1 1.1 7.1 5.7 34.1 -1.6 24.4 2.1 18.6 2.4 7.5 -2 5.8 1 21 3.4

192.5 -0.4 22.9 -3.9 169.6 0.1 12.7 -3.1 34.8 -0.1 4.8 26.6 3.3 2.8 -10.8 7.3 3.4 33.4 -2.2 25.3 3.5 18.6 0.1 7.6 1 5.7 -1.8 21.6 3

196.6 2.1 22.8 -0.5 173.8 2.5 13 2.3 34.2 -1.6 4.6 26.3 3.3 2.8 0 7.3 0.7 34.7 4.1 26.7 5.7 18.9 1.8 8.2 8.4 5.7 1.2 22.1 2.6

205.3 4.4 23.6 3.8 181.7 4.5 14.8 13.6 35.5 3.7 4.7 27.2 3.6 2.8 -0.9 7.8 5.8 37.1 6.8 26.8 0.3 19.8 4.7 8.4 1.6 5.9 3.9 22.9 3.3

211.2 2.9 23.5 -0.6 187.7 3.3 17 14.9 36.9 4.1 5.2 27.7 3.9 2.7 -0.6 8.2 5.8 38.6 4.1 27.1 1.2 20.8 5 8.2 -1.7 6 1.6 22 -3.6

214.7 1.7 22.6 -3.8 192.1 2.4 18.2 7 37.3 1.1 5.4 27.9 4 2.8 3.2 8.3 1.3 39.5 2.5 27.5 1.4 21.7 4.3 8.3 0.6 6.1 1.5 22.3 1.1

218 1.5 22.6 -0.1 195.4 1.7 18.2 0.1 38.2 2.2 5.5 28.4 4.1 2.9 3.2 8.4 0.9 40.1 1.4 28.1 2 22.4 3.4 8.4 1 6.2 0.5 22.6 1.3

222.6 2.1 22.5 -0.3 200.1 2.4 18.4 0.7 39.2 2.8 5.6 29.3 4.2 3 1.9 8.5 1.6 41.5 3.6 28.6 2.1 23.1 3 8.5 1 6.2 0.5 23 2

227.9 2.4 22.5 0.1 205.4 2.7 18.9 2.9 39.9 1.7 5.8 29.9 4.4 3.1 2.9 8.7 2 43.7 5.1 29.3 2.3 23.5 1.9 8.5 0.7 6.3 1 23.6 2.3

12274.3 473 1 215.4 0.8 4.1 4647 3550 1097

12732.1 479.1 1.3 232 7.7 3.6 4405 3553 852

13065.3 487.5 1.8 235.7 1.6 4.4 5120 4525 595

13392.2 496.8 1.9 237.2 0.6 5.7 6683 5196 1488

14020.9 507.2 2.1 242 2 5.1 6228 5672 556

15101.5 520.3 2.6 248.6 2.7 4.4 8385 6438 1948

16180.1 532.8 2.4 252.3 1.5 3.6 8601 7317 1284

16905.1 544.7 2.2 258.3 2.4 3 7142 5827 1315

17394.7 556.2 2.1 265.1 2.6 3.1 6427 5322 1106

18087.7 567.9 2.1 271.1 2.3 3.2 6496 5430 1066

18856.9 579.9 2.1 276.9 2.1 3.1 6340 5277 1062

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

The Pensacola – Ferry Pass - Brent MSA is comprised of Santa Rosa County and Escambia County. It is located in the Northwest corner of the state bordering Alabama. The region is home to Naval Air Station, Pensacola, Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval Aviation. The region has been referred to as the “Cradle of Naval Aviation.” The area has: • MSA’s population estimate of 415,313 for 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Santa Rosa County population estimate of 140,650 for 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Escambia County population estimate of 274,663 for 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A labor force of 205,572 in August 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database). • Unemployment in August of 2006 was 3.4% (Florida Regional Economic Database).

Sh o r t - Te r m Ou t l o o k Pensacola should expect steady growth in personal income over the next three years, averaging 5.9% annually; however, this value is 70 basis points below the predicted state average. Financial Services are predicted to see the greatest average annual growth over the next three years in the region at 2.8%. Professional and Business Services are right behind financial services, with 2.7% expected annual growth, while the Leisure and Hospitality and Information sectors are anticipated to average 2% growth over the next three years.

Unemployment for the region is expected to remain on par with the state average. Population growth has remained relatively constant since 2003 and is expected to continue a 1.2% annually.

F r o m t he B u s i n e s s P age s • Target Corp. recently pled guilty to the federal charge of illegally flushing 275 gallons of roofing chemicals into Carpenter Creek, which leads to Pensacola Bay. The company was fined $75,000 for the three-day spill, which violated the Clean Water Act. Source: Pensacola News Journal, September 16, 2006

• Steven D. Bell & Co. has organized investors in the purchase of two shopping centers, one in Pensacola and one in Tampa, for a combined total of $19.4 million. The Pensacola site is a 31,370-square-foot shopping center in Gulf Breeze, anchored by a CVS drug store; it also contains other tenants such as Blockbuster, Baskin Robbins, and Birkenstock. Source: The Business Journal of the Greater Triad Area, August 7, 2006

• The nation’s first pizza driver’s union was recognized this summer in Pensacola and is composed of eleven workers. The American Union of Pizza Delivery Drivers, Inc. is expected to be a model for future fast-food workers wishing to organize elsewhere. Source: Pensacola News Journal, September 22, 2006

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P e n s ac o l a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; F e r r y P a s s â&#x20AC;&#x201C; B r e n t Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent MSA Employment Distribution Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0.0

Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

(percent)

0.3

0.9

1.2

1.5

Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product 16000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

15000.0 14000.0 13000.0 12000.0 11000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 FL Unemployment Rate Pensacola Unemployment Rate

10000.0

(Thousands)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Gross Metro Product

Pensacola Real Personal Income

Pensacola Payroll Employment 185.0 180.0 175.0 170.0 165.0 160.0 155.0 150.0 145.0

0.6

7.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Pensacola Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast

0.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Personal Income

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

November 2006 Short-Term Forecast 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

13.2 5.3 6.6 6.6 11.4 2.1 29.6 25.6 35.8 2.1

13.3 5 6.7 6.7 11.5 2 29.8 25.7 36.1 3.7

13.5 5.3 6.7 6.8 11.6 2.1 30.2 25.8 36.4 3.7

13.7 5.5 6.8 6.9 11.7 2.7 30.5 26 36.6 3.2

13.9 5.4 6.9 7 11.8 3.1 30.8 26.1 36.9 3.1

14.1 5.5 6.9 7.1 11.9 3.1 31.1 26.2 37.2 3.1

14.3 5.6 7 7.2 12 3.5 31.5 26.4 37.5 3.2

14.5 5.9 7.1 7.4 12.1 3.8 31.9 26.6 37.9 3.5

14.8 6.3 7.2 7.5 12.3 4.2 32.3 26.9 38.2 3.6

15 6.6 7.3 7.7 12.4 4.6 32.7 27.1 38.6 3.8

15.2 6.7 7.4 7.8 12.6 4.7 33.1 27.3 39 3.8

15.5 6.7 7.5 8 12.7 4.8 33.6 27.6 39.3 3.8

15.7 6.7 7.6 8.1 12.9 4.8 34 27.8 39.7 3.8

16 6.7 7.7 8.3 13 4.9 34.5 28 40 3.8

173.1 1 7.5 -0.6 165.6 1 14.2 -1.5 33 1.7 6.4 22 4.5 3.9 2.7 8.7 0.1 23.8 0.6 26.8 1.3 17.8 3.1 8 0.8 6.6 0 22.9 0.7

173.7 1.1 7.5 -0.9 166.2 1.1 14.2 -1.3 33.2 1.9 6.4 22.2 4.5 3.9 1.8 8.7 0.4 23.9 0.9 26.9 1.1 17.9 3.1 8 1 6.6 0 22.9 1

174.4 1.3 7.5 -1.4 167 1.4 14.3 -0.6 33.4 2.1 6.4 22.3 4.6 3.9 1 8.7 1 24.1 1.9 27 1 18 3.1 8 1.1 6.6 0 23 0.8

175.3 1.5 7.4 -1.4 167.9 1.6 14.2 -0.3 33.5 2.2 6.5 22.4 4.6 3.9 1.1 8.8 1 24.4 2.8 27.1 1.4 18.1 2.9 8 0.9 6.6 0 23.1 1.1

176.2 1.7 7.4 -1.6 168.8 1.9 14.3 0.7 33.7 2.1 6.5 22.5 4.6 3.9 1.4 8.8 1.2 24.7 3.7 27.3 1.7 18.2 2.1 8.1 0.8 6.6 0 23.3 1.7

177.1 1.9 7.4 -1.6 169.7 2.1 14.4 1.1 33.8 2 6.5 22.7 4.7 4 2.2 8.8 1.1 25 4.7 27.4 1.9 18.3 2.1 8.1 0.7 6.6 0 23.4 2

177.8 1.9 7.3 -1.5 170.5 2.1 14.5 1.5 33.9 1.5 6.5 22.7 4.7 4 2.7 8.9 1.3 25.4 5.3 27.5 2.1 18.3 1.6 8.1 0.7 6.5 -1.2 23.5 2.1

178.7 2 7.3 -1.2 171.4 2.1 14.6 2.3 34 1.3 6.5 22.7 4.7 4 2.4 8.9 1.4 25.7 5.3 27.6 2.1 18.4 1.3 8.1 0.6 6.6 -0.4 23.5 1.9

179.5 1.9 7.3 -1 172.2 2 14.7 2.6 34 1 6.6 22.8 4.8 4 2.4 8.9 1.5 25.9 5 27.7 1.6 18.4 1.5 8.1 0.6 6.7 0.9 23.6 1.7

180.3 1.8 7.3 -0.9 173 1.9 14.8 2.9 34.1 0.6 6.6 22.8 4.8 4 2.2 9 1.8 26.2 4.9 27.8 1.3 18.5 1.4 8.1 0.7 6.8 2.6 23.8 1.5

14401.7 14468.8 14540.6 14620.7 14721.6 445.7 447 448.4 449.8 451.1 1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 203.6 204.6 205.6 206.6 207.4 2.7 2.8 2.5 2 1.9 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3126 3095 3145 3160 3239 2819 2808 2854 2898 2963 307 287 291 262 276

14826 452.4 1.2 208.3 1.8 3.3 3319 3044 275

14965 15094.2 15237.4 15381.5 15512.1 15649.2 453.8 455.2 456.6 458 459.5 461 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 209.2 210 210.8 211.6 212.4 213.1 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3354 3387 3355 3336 3302 3288 3087 3117 3096 3073 3038 3025 267 271 259 263 264 263

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

171.5 2 7.6 0.3 163.9 2.1 14.4 3.4 32.4 2.1 6.3 21.7 4.4 3.8 0.9 8.7 6.5 23.7 -0.3 26.5 3.6 17.2 2 7.9 1.4 6.6 -0.6 22.7 1.7

171.9 1 7.5 -0.1 164.4 1 14.4 0.8 32.6 2.7 6.3 21.7 4.4 3.8 3.7 8.7 3.5 23.7 -1.1 26.6 1.4 17.4 -0.1 7.9 1.4 6.6 -2.9 22.7 1.1

172.3 0.7 7.6 -0.9 164.7 0.8 14.3 0.9 32.7 0.9 6.4 21.8 4.4 3.8 3 8.7 1.1 23.7 0.2 26.7 2.2 17.5 0.4 7.9 1.1 6.6 -3.4 22.8 0.8

172.7 1 7.5 -0.7 165.2 1.1 14.3 -0.5 32.8 1.5 6.4 21.9 4.5 3.9 3.2 8.7 0.2 23.7 0.2 26.7 1.5 17.6 3 8 0.6 6.6 0.1 22.9 1

15788 15943.3 462.7 464.4 1.3 1.4 213.9 214.6 1.5 1.4 3.2 3.2 3286 3296 3023 3026 263 269

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

November 2006 Short-Term Forecast 1999 Personal Income (Billions $)

9.1 3.7 4.6 4.5 9.3 2 22.1 22.7 26.8 2.1

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

9.7 6.9 4.9 4.8 9.7 4.3 23.4 23.4 28.2 4.9

10.2 4.8 5.1 5.1 10 2.6 24.2 23.7 29.6 5.3

10.5 3.2 5.1 5.4 10.1 1.8 24.7 23.8 29.9 0.8

10.9 3.6 5.3 5.5 10.3 1.7 25.3 23.9 30.7 2.8

11.5 6.1 5.7 5.8 10.7 3.4 26.5 24.5 32.4 5.3

12.4 7.6 6.3 6.2 11.1 4.6 28.2 25.3 34.6 7

13.1 5.5 6.6 6.5 11.4 2.4 29.4 25.6 35.6 2.7

13.8 5.4 6.8 7 11.7 2.8 30.6 26 36.8 3.3

14.6 6.1 7.2 7.5 12.2 4 32.1 26.8 38.1 3.5

15.6 6.7 7.6 8 12.8 4.8 33.8 27.7 39.5 3.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

Florida & Metro Forecast

155.4 1.3 9.4 -5.7 146.1 1.8 11.6 0.1 29.8 0.2 5.3 20.9 3.7 4.3 8 6.6 0.3 20 11.6 23.1 -0.7 14.7 -0.7 7.3 5.5 7.6 -2.1 21.1 0.6

157.1 1.1 8.8 -6.3 148.3 1.5 12.1 4.3 29.6 -0.9 5.2 21 3.4 4.2 -2.1 6.8 4.2 21.6 7.8 23.5 1.7 14 -4.2 7.5 2.3 7.7 0.8 21.3 1.2

154.8 -1.4 7.9 -10.1 147 -0.9 12.8 6.4 29.1 -1.7 5.5 20.2 3.4 3.4 -18.6 6.9 1.2 18.3 -15.4 24.2 3.1 15.7 11.8 7.4 -0.7 7.4 -4.2 21.7 1.9

154.7 -0.1 7.3 -7.1 147.3 0.3 11.1 -13.4 29.2 0.2 5.3 20.5 3.4 4.2 23.9 6.5 -6 19.2 5.4 25.3 4.6 15.7 -0.2 7.7 2.9 6.9 -6.2 21.6 -0.8

158.5 2.5 7.4 1.1 151.1 2.6 10.8 -2.8 29.5 1 5.3 20.8 3.3 4.1 -2.1 6.8 4.6 20.1 4.6 26.8 6.2 16.6 6.1 7.9 2.6 6.9 -0.5 21.6 0

162.9 2.8 7.3 -1.3 155.6 3 11.7 7.8 30.4 3.2 5.6 21.1 3.7 3.9 -4.5 7.5 9.8 21.6 7.2 26.7 -0.4 17.4 4.6 7.9 0.8 6.7 -2.2 21.8 0.9

167.3 2.7 7.6 3.3 159.8 2.7 13.7 17.5 31.7 4.2 6.1 21.4 4.1 3.7 -5.6 8 7.1 23.3 7.8 25.7 -4 17 -2.3 7.8 -1.6 6.7 -0.9 22.2 2.3

171.3 2.4 7.6 0.3 163.8 2.5 14.4 4.8 32.4 2.5 6.3 21.7 4.4 3.8 1.3 8.6 7.9 23.7 1.7 26.4 2.8 17.3 1.6 7.9 1.2 6.7 -0.2 22.7 1.9

173 0.9 7.5 -0.8 165.4 1 14.3 -0.6 32.9 1.5 6.4 22 4.5 3.9 2.7 8.7 0.5 23.8 0.5 26.8 1.5 17.7 2.4 8 0.9 6.6 -0.9 22.9 0.9

175.7 1.6 7.4 -1.5 168.3 1.7 14.3 0.2 33.6 2.1 6.5 22.5 4.6 3.9 1.4 8.8 1.1 24.6 3.3 27.2 1.5 18.1 2.5 8 0.9 6.6 0 23.2 1.4

179.1 1.9 7.3 -1.1 171.8 2 14.6 2.3 34 1.1 6.6 22.7 4.8 4 2.4 8.9 1.5 25.8 5.1 27.7 1.8 18.4 1.4 8.1 0.6 6.6 0.5 23.6 1.8

11034.5 410.5 0.5 181.3 0.9 3.8 3068 2837 230

11228.7 413.8 0.8 187.5 3.4 4 2545 2486 59

11303.3 419.8 1.4 186.4 -0.6 4.8 3113 2997 116

11630.6 425.4 1.3 186.6 0.1 5.3 3207 3021 186

12162.2 430.4 1.2 191.3 2.5 4.9 4504 3616 887

12811.6 435.4 1.2 194.8 1.9 4.7 4784 3703 1081

13670.4 440.5 1.2 197.2 1.2 3.9 3821 3340 480

14351.7 445.2 1.1 202.8 2.9 3.1 3009 2757 253

14677.2 450.4 1.2 207 2.1 3.2 3216 2940 276

15169.5 455.9 1.2 210.4 1.6 3.3 3358 3093 265

15723.1 461.9 1.3 213.5 1.5 3.2 3293 3028 265

Ta l l aha s s ee

The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden County, Jefferson County, Leon County, and Wakulla County. Located between Pensacola and Jacksonville, Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida. It is home to Florida State University and Florida A & M University. The area has: • MSA’s population estimate of 334,886 for 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Gadsden County population estimate of 46,428 for 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Jefferson County population estimate of 14,490 for 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Leon County population estimate of 245,756 for 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Wakulla County population estimate of 28,212 for 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A labor force of 179,559 in August 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database).

Population growth will average 1.2% annually, while employment will, on average, grow 1.6% per year.

F r o m t he B u s i n e s s P age s • The St. Joe Co. announced that it is leaving the home-building business in Florida; the company is currently the largest private landowner in the state. The firm indicated it will concentrate on development. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, September 9, 2006

• Talla-Tech, a Tallahassee subsidiary of Israel based Tadiran Communications Industries, won a $15 million Army contract; the contract involves handheld computers that transmit flight details to pilots and navigational information to troops. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, September 12, 2006

• Unemployment in August of 2006 at 3.2% (Florida Regional Economic Database).

Sh o r t - Te r m Ou t l o o k Total personal income for Tallahassee is estimated to grow, on average, 5.7% annually from 2006 through 2009. Professional and Business Services are anticipated to experience 3.7% annual growth through 2009, while the Leisure and Hospitality sector will see a 2.5% average annual growth. Construction and Mining is estimated to grow 2.2% annually over the next three years. The unemployment rate in Tallahassee through 2009 is predicted to average 2.9%, which is below the state’s unemployment average of 3.2%. Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Ta l l aha s s ee Tallahassee MSA Employment Distribution Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0.0

Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0%

(percent)

0.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

15000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

14000.0 13000.0 12000.0 11000.0 10000.0 9000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 FL Unemployment Rate Tallahassee Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

185.0 180.0

8000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Gross Metro Product

Tallahassee Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

175.0 170.0

4.0%

165.0

2.0%

160.0

0.0%

155.0

1.5

Tallahassee Real Gross Metro Product

Tallahassee Payroll Employment

150.0

1.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Tallahassee Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast

-2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Personal Income

Ta l l aha s s ee

Quarterly Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

November 2006 Short-Term Forecast 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

10.5 5 6.5 4 9.1 1.8 31.1 26.9 37.1 2.2

10.7 5.6 6.6 4 9.2 2.6 31.4 27.1 37.4 3.8

10.8 5.6 6.7 4.1 9.3 2.3 31.8 27.2 37.7 3.9

11 5.5 6.8 4.2 9.3 2.8 32.1 27.3 38 3.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

175.9 1.8 4.2 0.5 171.7 1.8 10.1 7 25.8 1.4 3.6 19.5 2.6 4.2 1.7 8.2 4.3 20.2 4.1 16.9 1.9 16.1 3.2 8.1 1.6 1.9 -1.1 60.1 -0.2

176.3 1.7 4.2 0.2 172.1 1.8 10.1 3 25.9 2.6 3.6 19.5 2.6 4.2 1.6 8.2 2.8 20.2 4.6 17 1.7 16.2 3.9 8.2 1.8 1.9 -0.4 60.2 -0.3

176.8 1.2 4.2 -0.4 172.5 1.2 10.1 2.2 26 2.3 3.7 19.5 2.6 4.3 1.6 8.2 0.3 20.2 1.9 17.1 2.3 16.3 3 8.2 0.9 1.9 -1.1 60.4 -0.1

177.4 1.2 4.2 -0.4 173.2 1.2 10.1 0.3 26 1.3 3.7 19.6 2.6 4.3 3 8.2 0.1 20.2 0.4 17.1 1.6 16.5 3.1 8.2 1 1.9 0.4 60.6 1

11.1 5.3 6.8 4.3 9.4 3 32.4 27.5 38.3 3.3

11.2 5.3 6.9 4.3 9.5 3 32.7 27.6 38.6 3.3

11.4 5.4 7 4.4 9.6 3.3 33.1 27.8 39 3.5

11.6 5.7 7.1 4.5 9.7 3.6 33.5 28 39.4 3.7

11.8 6.1 7.2 4.6 9.8 4 33.9 28.2 39.8 3.8

12 6.4 7.3 4.6 9.9 4.4 34.3 28.4 40.2 4

12.1 6.4 7.4 4.7 10 4.5 34.8 28.6 40.6 4

12.3 6.4 7.5 4.8 10.1 4.6 35.2 28.9 41 4

12.5 6.4 7.6 4.9 10.2 4.6 35.6 29.1 41.4 4

12.7 6.4 7.7 5 10.3 4.6 36 29.3 41.8 4

177.8 1.1 4.2 0 173.6 1.1 10 -1.3 26.2 1.6 3.7 19.7 2.7 4.3 2.4 8.2 0 20.3 0.8 17.2 1.3 16.6 3.3 8.2 1.2 1.9 0.1 60.6 0.9

178.3 1.1 4.2 -0.3 174.1 1.2 10 -1.2 26.3 1.8 3.7 19.9 2.7 4.3 1.5 8.3 0.3 20.4 1.1 17.2 1.1 16.7 3.2 8.3 1.3 1.9 0.3 60.7 0.9

179 1.2 4.2 -1 174.8 1.3 10.1 -0.5 26.5 2 3.7 20 2.7 4.3 1 8.3 0.8 20.6 2.1 17.3 1 16.8 3.2 8.3 1.4 1.9 0.3 60.8 0.7

179.8 1.4 4.2 -0.9 175.6 1.4 10 -0.3 26.6 2.1 3.7 20.1 2.7 4.4 1.3 8.3 0.8 20.8 3 17.3 1.4 16.9 2.8 8.3 1.1 1.9 0.4 61 0.7

180.6 1.6 4.2 -1 176.5 1.6 10.1 0.6 26.7 1.9 3.7 20.2 2.7 4.4 1.8 8.3 0.9 21.1 3.9 17.5 1.7 16.9 1.9 8.3 1.1 1.9 0.3 61.3 1.1

181.4 1.8 4.2 -1 177.3 1.8 10.1 0.8 26.8 1.7 3.7 20.3 2.8 4.4 2.6 8.3 0.8 21.4 4.9 17.5 1.8 17 1.7 8.3 0.8 1.9 0.3 61.5 1.4

182.1 1.7 4.2 -0.8 177.9 1.8 10.2 1 26.8 1.2 3.7 20.3 2.8 4.4 2.9 8.4 1 21.7 5.5 17.6 2 17 1.4 8.3 0.8 1.9 -2.1 61.6 1.3

182.8 1.7 4.2 -0.3 178.6 1.7 10.2 1.8 26.8 0.9 3.7 20.3 2.8 4.5 2.4 8.4 1.1 22 5.4 17.7 1.9 17.1 1.1 8.4 0.7 1.9 -0.5 61.7 1.1

183.4 1.6 4.2 0 179.3 1.6 10.3 2 26.9 0.7 3.8 20.3 2.8 4.5 2.3 8.4 1.2 22.2 5.2 17.7 1.5 17.2 1.4 8.4 0.7 1.9 1.6 61.9 0.9

184.2 1.5 4.2 0.1 180 1.5 10.3 2.3 26.9 0.2 3.8 20.3 2.9 4.5 2.1 8.4 1.5 22.5 5 17.7 1.2 17.2 1.3 8.4 0.8 2 4.1 62.1 0.9

12853 12912.2 12977.5 13056.4 13152.1 339 339.6 340.5 341.5 342.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 1 1 180.6 181.4 182.2 183 183.7 2.5 2.9 2.2 1.8 1.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 3589 3416 3350 3246 3250 2664 2525 2426 2377 2350 925 891 923 869 899

13242 13370.5 13489.5 13612.8 343.5 344.5 345.7 346.8 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 184.4 185.1 185.8 186.4 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3272 3280 3251 3231 2337 2337 2320 2303 935 943 932 928

13738 13851.5 13967.7 14085.1 14217.7 348 349.2 350.4 351.9 353.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 187 187.7 188.3 188.9 189.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 3205 3179 3146 3113 3091 2284 2260 2248 2244 2244 921 918 898 869 848

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Ta l l aha s s ee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

November 2006 Short-Term Forecast 1999 Personal Income (Billions $)

7.6 6.1 4.7 2.9 7.7 4.4 23.8 24.4 28.7 3.8

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

8 5.2 5 3 8 2.7 24.8 24.8 29.8 3.7

8.3 3.7 5.2 3 8.1 1.6 25.6 25.1 31.3 5

8.4 2.1 5.3 3.1 8.1 0.7 26 25.1 32.2 2.9

8.7 3.2 5.5 3.2 8.2 1.2 26.5 25.1 32.7 1.8

9.3 6.6 5.8 3.5 8.6 3.9 27.9 25.8 34.2 4.4

9.9 7.2 6.2 3.7 8.9 4.3 29.7 26.6 35.9 5

10.5 5.2 6.5 4 9.1 2.1 30.9 26.9 36.9 2.8

11 5.4 6.8 4.2 9.4 2.8 32.2 27.4 38.2 3.5

11.7 5.9 7.2 4.5 9.7 3.8 33.7 28.1 39.6 3.8

12.4 6.4 7.6 4.9 10.2 4.6 35.4 29 41.2 4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

Florida & Metro Forecast

162.7 2.5 5 -0.2 157.6 2.6 7.2 1.1 24.9 4 3.6 19.1 2.2 4.6 9.6 6.9 2.1 16.1 8.5 16.1 3.5 12.2 -1.5 7.9 -1.2 1.9 0 59.8 1.6

166.6 2.4 5.1 1.1 161.5 2.4 7.3 1.3 25.4 1.9 3.8 19.5 2.1 4.8 5.8 7 0.9 17.6 9.2 16.8 4.5 12.1 -0.5 8.2 3.9 2 6.5 60.2 0.6

165.9 -0.4 4.4 -13 161.5 0 6.9 -4.9 24.1 -4.9 3.7 18.4 2 4.6 -5.1 6.9 -0.5 18.7 6.4 16.8 -0.2 13 7.2 8.1 -1.1 1.9 -6.5 60.3 0.3

164.4 -0.9 4.1 -6.6 160.2 -0.8 7.2 3.5 23.4 -3.1 3.2 18.1 2.1 4 -13.4 7.4 7.4 18.2 -2.7 16.5 -1.8 13.4 3.2 8.1 -0.2 1.9 2.2 60.1 -0.4

165.7 0.8 4.1 -0.6 161.6 0.8 7.7 7.1 23.5 0.5 3 18.5 2 3.8 -3.8 7.7 3 18.2 -0.1 16.7 1.1 13.6 1.6 7.8 -3.7 2 3 60.6 0.8

168.2 1.5 4.2 2 163.9 1.5 8.3 8.6 24.6 4.4 3.3 19.1 2.1 4 4.6 7.6 -0.7 18.2 -0.2 16.4 -1.7 14.4 6.1 8 2.8 1.9 -3.3 60.5 -0.1

172.1 2.4 4.2 -1 168 2.5 9.4 13.1 25.3 2.9 3.6 19.1 2.5 4.1 3.8 7.9 3.4 19.1 5.2 16.6 1.3 15.5 7.6 8 -0.5 1.9 -0.9 60.1 -0.6

175.5 2 4.2 1.2 171.3 2 10 6.6 25.7 1.6 3.6 19.4 2.6 4.2 1.7 8.2 4.4 20.1 5 16.9 1.6 16 3.1 8.1 1.6 1.9 -1.2 60.2 0.1

177.5 1.1 4.2 -0.3 173.3 1.2 10.1 0 26.1 1.8 3.7 19.7 2.7 4.3 2.1 8.2 0.2 20.3 1 17.1 1.6 16.5 3.1 8.2 1.1 1.9 -0.1 60.6 0.7

180.2 1.5 4.2 -1 176 1.6 10.1 0.2 26.6 1.9 3.7 20.2 2.7 4.4 1.7 8.3 0.8 21 3.5 17.4 1.5 16.9 2.4 8.3 1.1 1.9 0.3 61.2 1

183.1 1.6 4.2 -0.3 179 1.7 10.2 1.8 26.8 0.8 3.7 20.3 2.8 4.5 2.4 8.4 1.2 22.1 5.3 17.7 1.6 17.1 1.3 8.4 0.7 1.9 0.8 61.8 1.1

10108.2 317.4 1.3 172.9 1.9 2.8 2456 1987 469

10415 321 1.1 172.5 -0.2 3.2 2902 1994 908

10441.4 322.6 0.5 172.5 0 3.7 2687 1895 791

10516.1 324.7 0.7 171.9 -0.4 4.6 2708 2222 486

10900.9 328.4 1.1 173.5 0.9 4.3 3907 2464 1443

11453.1 331.7 1 173.8 0.2 3.9 3452 2175 1277

12228.8 335.3 1.1 175.6 1 3.3 3750 2812 939

12796.8 338.6 1 180 2.6 2.8 4051 3024 1027

13107 342 1 183.4 1.8 2.9 3279 2372 907

13552.7 346.3 1.2 186.1 1.5 2.9 3242 2311 931

14030.5 351.2 1.4 188.6 1.3 2.8 3132 2249 883

Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r w a t e r

The Tampa – St. Petersburg - Clearwater MSA is comprised of Hernando County, Hillsborough County, Pasco County, and Pinellas County. It is located centrally on the west coast of Florida. The region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge Docks, Ybor City, Busch Gardens, the University of Tampa, and the University of South Florida. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Devil Rays call this region home. The area has: • MSA’s population estimate of 2,596,556 for 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Hernando County population estimate of 156,325 for 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Hillsborough County population estimate of 1,111,717 for 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Pasco County population estimate of 423,356 for 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Pinellas County population estimate of 905,158 for 2005 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A labor force of 1,338,630 in August 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database). • Unemployment in August of 2006 at 3.0% (Florida Regional Economic Database).

Sh o r t - Te r m Ou t l o o k Tampa is anticipated to experience personalincome growth similar to that of the state at 6.5% average annual increases over the next three years. Along with many other Florida metropolitan areas, Tampa is predicted to experience a surge in Professional and Business Services over the next three years; growth should average 5.3% annually. Leisure and Hospitality will see average annual growth of 2.6%, while Education and Health Services will expand by 2.3% per year. Tampa’s population growth is predicted to match the expected 2.1% annual population growth of the state. The unemployment rate in Tampa is anticipated to hold steady at 3.1%.

F r o m t he B u s i n e s s P age s • According to the Economic Scorecard of Tampa Bay Partnership, housing costs are hurting the Bay Area; Tampa Bay is ranked last in housing costs among other benchmark metro areas. Source: Tampa Tribune, September 19, 2006

• A New York firm, Overseas Shipholding Group, Inc., will acquire Tampa-based Maritrans for $455 million. The acquisition may increase the current workforce in the Bay Area by 60 employees. Source: Tampa Tribune, September 27, 2006

• Tampa Switch and Data, Inc. filed with the SEC to raise up to $150 million in an IPO. The company provides collocation and interconnection facilities for telecom carriers

Continued Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r w a t e r

and is the second Tampa Bay area company to go public this year; the first was Mueller Water Products, Inc. Source: St. Petersburg Times, September 29, 2006

• Wal-Mart began selling generic drugs at a discounted rate this September at 65 WalMart Neighborhood Markets and Sam’s Club pharmacies. The pilot program begins in the Tampa Bay area and, if successful, will expand to the rest of the state. Source: News-Press, September 22, 2006

• BioVest International is close to finalizing an agreement that will result in an $80 million cancer vaccine lab at UCF’s Tampa campus. The deal would bring 300 scientific and technical jobs to the area and leave open the possibility of three future vaccine production facilities. Source: Tampa Tribune, September 21, 2006

Florida & Metro Forecast

Tampa â&#x20AC;&#x201C; S t. P e t e r s bu r g â&#x20AC;&#x201C; C l ea r w a t e r Tampa-St. Petersburg MSA Employment Distribution Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0.0

Florida & Tampa Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

(percent)

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

Tampa Real Gross Metro Product 120000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

110000.0 100000.0 90000.0 80000.0 70000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 FL Unemployment Rate Tampa Unemployment Rate

60000.0

Tampa Real Personal Income

Tampa Payroll Employment 1500.0

(Thousands)

7.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

1400.0

5.0%

1300.0

4.0%

1200.0

3.0% 2.0%

1100.0 1000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Gross Metro Product

1.0% 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Tampa Payroll Employment

0.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r w a t e r

Quarterly Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

November 2006 Short-Term Forecast 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

94.1 5.5 52.8 41.3 81.5 2.3 34.6 30 39.5 1.9

95.4 5.9 53.5 42 82.3 2.9 34.9 30.1 39.9 3.7

96.9 6 54.2 42.7 83 2.8 35.2 30.2 40.2 3.8

98.4 6.3 54.9 43.5 83.8 3.5 35.6 30.3 40.5 3.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

99.8 6.1 55.7 44.1 84.6 3.8 35.9 30.5 40.9 3.4

101.2 6.1 56.4 44.8 85.4 3.8 36.3 30.6 41.2 3.4

103 6.3 57.4 45.6 86.5 4.1 36.7 30.8 41.7 3.6

104.9 6.6 58.4 46.5 87.6 4.5 37.2 31.1 42.1 3.9

106.8 7.1 59.5 47.4 88.8 5 37.7 31.4 42.5 4

108.9 7.5 60.5 48.3 90.1 5.5 38.3 31.7 42.9 4.1

110.8 7.6 61.6 49.2 91.3 5.7 38.8 32 43.4 4.1

112.8 7.5 62.6 50.2 92.5 5.6 39.3 32.2 43.8 4.1

114.7 7.3 63.6 51.1 93.7 5.5 39.7 32.5 44.2 4.1

116.7 7.2 64.7 52 94.9 5.3 40.2 32.7 44.7 4

1323.8 2.3 72.8 -2.8 1250.9 2.6 88.1 4.9 234.5 0.9 52.1 150.1 31.8 33.5 2 99.3 1.1 314.1 4.9 156 2.2 123.6 3.5 51.5 -0.4 21.2 1.4 129.1 1

1329.9 1.9 72.9 -2.1 1257.1 2.2 88.1 2.8 235.5 0.9 52.2 150.6 32 33.5 0.4 99.8 1.5 316.7 3.7 157.1 2.4 124.2 3.5 51.7 -0.2 21.2 1.8 129.4 1.1

1335.9 1.7 73 -1.9 1262.9 1.9 88 1.3 236.3 0.7 52.2 150.8 32.1 33.5 -0.1 99.8 1.4 319.2 3.4 158.5 2.1 124.9 3.6 51.7 0.3 21.2 0.7 129.9 0.9

1343.1 2 72.7 -0.8 1270.4 2.2 87.8 0.3 237.3 1.5 52.4 151.5 32.3 33.5 0 100.1 1.4 323 3.8 159.1 2.9 126 2.6 52 0.9 21.2 0.9 130.5 1.4

1349.9 2 72.5 -0.4 1277.4 2.1 87.5 -0.7 238.5 1.7 52.5 152.5 32.5 33.4 -0.3 100.3 0.9 326.6 4 160 2.6 127.1 2.8 52.1 1.1 21.3 0.6 130.6 1.2

1357.1 2 72.4 -0.6 1284.7 2.2 87.5 -0.7 239.8 1.8 52.7 153.5 32.7 33.2 -0.7 100.7 0.9 330.3 4.3 160.9 2.4 127.6 2.7 52.3 1.2 21.3 0.8 131.1 1.3

1366.2 2.3 72.2 -1.2 1294 2.5 87.6 -0.5 241.1 2 52.9 154.7 33 33.3 -0.4 101.4 1.5 335.4 5.1 161.8 2.1 128.3 2.7 52.3 1.2 21.4 0.9 131.5 1.2

1376.5 2.5 71.9 -1 1304.6 2.7 87.9 0.1 242.3 2.1 53 155.6 33.2 33.7 0.5 101.8 1.7 341 5.6 162.6 2.2 129.2 2.5 52.5 1 21.4 1 132.2 1.3

1387.4 2.8 71.8 -1.1 1315.6 3 88.7 1.4 243.4 2.1 53.2 156.5 33.4 33.8 1.3 102.2 2 346.8 6.2 163.9 2.4 129.4 1.8 52.6 1 21.5 1 133.1 1.9

1398.4 3 71.7 -1 1326.7 3.3 89.4 2.1 244.5 2 53.3 157.5 33.7 33.9 2.2 102.7 2 353.1 6.9 165 2.5 129.9 1.8 52.7 0.8 21.5 1 133.9 2.2

1408.8 3.1 71.6 -0.8 1337.2 3.3 90.2 2.9 244.9 1.6 53.5 157.7 34 34.1 2.3 103.3 1.9 359.6 7.2 166 2.6 130.2 1.5 52.8 0.9 21.6 0.9 134.5 2.3

1417.6 3 71.6 -0.5 1346 3.2 90.9 3.4 245.4 1.3 53.6 158 34.2 34.2 1.5 103.8 2 364.5 6.9 166.8 2.5 130.8 1.2 52.9 0.8 21.6 0.9 135.1 2.2

1426.3 2.8 71.5 -0.4 1354.8 3 91.7 3.4 245.8 1 53.8 158.2 34.4 34.3 1.4 104.4 2.1 369.2 6.5 167.4 2.1 131.3 1.5 53 0.8 21.8 1.2 135.9 2.1

1436.1 2.7 71.5 -0.3 1364.6 2.9 92.5 3.5 246.2 0.7 54 158.6 34.6 34.4 1.4 105.1 2.3 375.1 6.2 167.9 1.8 131.8 1.4 53.1 0.8 22 2 136.6 2

103236 2721.6 2.2 1332.4 2.6 3 26477 22034 4443

103952 2736.1 2.2 1338.9 2.1 3.1 25855 21321 4534

104723 2750.1 2.1 1345.4 2.2 3.1 25462 20644 4818

105588 2764 2.1 1351.7 2 3.1 24844 20092 4752

106595 2777.6 2.1 1357.9 1.9 3.1 24855 19696 5159

107585 2791 2 1364.1 1.9 3.1 25010 19558 5452

108879 2804.7 2 1370 1.8 3.1 24931 19431 5501

110142 2818.3 2 1376.2 1.8 3.1 24861 19317 5544

111504 2831.8 2 1382.2 1.8 3.1 24684 19210 5474

112851 2845.3 1.9 1388.6 1.8 3 24585 19114 5471

114128 2858.7 1.9 1394.8 1.8 3 24505 19024 5481

115288 2872 1.9 1401 1.8 3 24327 18938 5390

116490 2885.3 1.9 1406.9 1.8 3 24224 18913 5311

117830 2898.6 1.9 1412.8 1.7 2.9 24234 18926 5307

Florida & Metro Forecast

Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r w a t e r

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

November 2006 Short-Term Forecast 1999 Personal Income (Billions $)

63.7 5.1 35.4 28.4 65.3 3.4 26.8 27.5 30.9 5.5

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

68.9 8.1 38.5 30.4 68.9 5.5 28.6 28.6 32.2 4.1

71.7 4.1 40.2 31.5 70.2 2 29.3 28.7 33.6 4.6

74.2 3.4 41.4 32.8 71.6 2 29.8 28.7 34.8 3.5

76.8 3.5 42.6 34.2 72.7 1.6 30.2 28.7 35.6 2.2

81.9 6.7 45.6 36.3 75.7 4 31.6 29.2 36.5 2.6

88.3 7.8 49.8 38.5 79.3 4.9 33.3 29.9 38.3 4.9

93.4 5.7 52.4 41 81.4 2.6 34.4 30 39.3 2.6

99.1 6.1 55.3 43.8 84.2 3.5 35.8 30.4 40.7 3.6

105.9 6.9 59 46.9 88.3 4.8 37.5 31.2 42.3 3.9

113.7 7.4 63.1 50.6 93.1 5.5 39.5 32.3 44 4.1

1288.3 4.2 74.7 0.2 1213.5 4.5 83.5 10.9 231 3.5 51.5 147.7 31.8 32.7 -0.4 97.8 3.1 298.8 7.5 152.4 2 118.1 4.5 50.9 5.6 20.7 4.2 127.6 0.3

1320.9 2.5 73.3 -1.8 1247.6 2.8 87.7 5.1 234.6 1.6 52.2 150.3 31.9 33.5 2.3 99.1 1.3 312.6 4.6 155.7 2.2 122.7 3.9 51.6 1.3 21.1 1.7 129 1.1

1346.5 1.9 72.7 -0.9 1273.8 2.1 87.7 0 238 1.4 52.4 152.1 32.4 33.4 -0.3 100.2 1.2 324.7 3.9 159.6 2.5 126.4 3 52 0.9 21.3 0.8 130.5 1.2

1382.1 2.6 71.9 -1.1 1310.2 2.9 88.4 0.8 242.8 2 53.1 156.1 33.3 33.7 0.9 102 1.8 344.1 6 163.3 2.3 129.2 2.2 52.5 1 21.5 1 132.7 1.6

1422.2 2.9 71.5 -0.5 1350.7 3.1 91.3 3.3 245.6 1.1 53.8 158.1 34.3 34.3 1.7 104.1 2.1 367.1 6.7 167 2.3 131 1.4 53 0.8 21.7 1.3 135.5 2.2

97565.6 102753.1 106122.8 2655.2 2714.6 2770.7 2.3 2.2 2.1 1294.9 1328.4 1354.8 2.7 2.6 2 3.7 3 3.1 33212 28048 25043 28048 23849 19997 5164 4199 5045

110844 2825 2 1379.3 1.8 3.1 24765 19268 5497

115934 2878.6 1.9 1403.9 1.8 3 24322 18950 5372

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1132.2 2.7 84.9 2.8 1047.2 2.6 60.4 -0.1 228.8 0.6 51.7 141.5 35.5 37.8 9 87.3 6.4 216.8 8.8 136.1 -0.7 102.1 -1 42.9 2.1 18.4 0.9 116.7 0.6

1185.2 4.7 87.5 3 1097.7 4.8 64 6 237.4 3.8 54.2 146.5 36.7 39.7 5 90.9 4.1 236.9 9.3 137.1 0.7 105.2 3 44 2.4 19.1 3.9 123.5 5.9

1182.2 -0.3 82.2 -6 1100 0.2 63.8 -0.3 228.7 -3.7 52.9 141.9 33.9 38.9 -2 91.6 0.8 241.2 1.8 137.2 0.1 107.7 2.4 44.4 1.1 18.8 -1.4 127.6 3.3

1176.2 -0.5 78 -5.1 1098.2 -0.2 65.7 3 224.6 -1.8 51.6 140.9 32.1 35.8 -7.9 91.8 0.3 237.5 -1.5 140.2 2.2 109 1.2 47 5.7 19 0.7 127.7 0.1

1183.4 0.6 74 -5.1 1109.4 1 68.1 3.7 218.1 -2.9 48.7 138.7 30.7 34.6 -3.5 93.2 1.5 248.1 4.4 144.8 3.3 109.4 0.4 46.9 -0.2 19.5 2.8 126.6 -0.8

1236.4 4.5 74.6 0.8 1161.8 4.7 75.2 10.4 223.1 2.3 49.2 142.2 31.6 32.9 -4.8 94.8 1.7 278 12.1 149.4 3.2 113 3.3 48.2 2.7 19.9 2.2 127.2 0.4

74897.8 2373.9 1.4 1254.9 2.6 2.9 22956 13900 9056

78523.4 2409.6 1.5 1200 -4.4 3.4 19963 13762 6200

79666.8 2449 1.6 1210.6 0.9 4.3 22017 16523 5494

81307.6 2491.9 1.8 1217.6 0.6 5.6 24099 18391 5708

84278 2537.6 1.8 1226.1 0.7 5.3 27937 20354 7583

90384.8 2594.3 2.2 1260.4 2.8 4.5 27850 22502 5348

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Director, Institute for Economic Competitiveness. Ph.D., Pennsylvania State University 1996; M.A., Pennsylvania State University 1994, B.S., Allegheny College 1989.

Sea n M . S n ait h , P h . D . Sean Snaith is Director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness in the College of Business Administration at the University of Central Florida. Dr. Snaith received his B.S. in Economics from Allegheny College, and his M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from Pennsylvania State University. He has taught at Penn State, the American University in Cairo, the University of North Dakota and the University of the Pacific. While at the University of North Dakota he served as the Director of the Bureau of Business and Economic Research and as Director of the Business Forecasting Center at the University of the Pacific. Snaith also served with International Planning and Research, a Boston area consulting firm, where his work included forecasting, market sizing, economic analyses, and econometric modeling for a variety of clients including IBM, Dell, Compaq, and HewlettPackard. Snaith is a director of the Association of University Business of Economic Research, a member of the National Association of Business Economics, and the American Economics Association. He is also a member of the Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast Panel, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Survey of Professional Forecasters, Livingston Survey, Bloomberg U.S. Economic Indicator Survey and USA Todayâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Quarterly Survey of Top Economists. He is frequently quoted in the media and has published articles on a variety of topics including exchange rate modeling, predicting educational outcomes, the economics of information technology, and telemedicine.

We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness:

For more information Sean Snaith, Director Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida P.O. Box 161400 Orlando, FL 32816 PH: 407.823.1451 FAX: 407.823.1454 EMAIL: ssnaith@bus.ucf.edu www.iec.ucf.edu

U n i v e r s it y o f C e n t r al F l o r ida College of Business Administration Institute for Economic Competitiveness P. O . B o x 1 6 1 4 0 0 , O r l a n d o , F l o r i d a 3 2 8 1 6 PH 407.823.1453

FAX 407.823.1454

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