Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

Florida & Metro Forecast 2010-2013

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

Published October 2010

Message From D ea n T h o ma s L . K e o n

A b o ut U n i v e r s it y o f C e n t r al F l o r ida ( U C F ) T h e Un i ve r s i t y o f C e n t r a l Fl o r i d a i s a public, multi-campus, metropolitan r e s e a r c h u n i v e r s i t y, d e d i c a t e d t o serving its surrounding communities with their diverse and expanding

A change can be good.

A change can be bad.

One thing a change cannot be however...is avoided.

As they say, change is inevitable. For better or worse, the state of Florida is about to experience some change.

For starters, we are about to get a new governor and a new state senator. Further, many regions throughout Florida will be electing, or in some cases, re-electing, local officials.

populations, technological corridors, and international partners. The mission of the university is to offer high-quality undergraduate and graduate education, student development, and continuing education; to conduct research and creative activities; and to provide services that enhance the intellectual, cultural, environmental, and economic development of the metropolitan region, address national and international issues in key areas, establish UCF as a major presence, and contribute to the global c o m m u n i t y.

A b o ut t h e C o lle g e o f B u s i n e s s A dmi n i s t r ati o n The College of Business Administration a d v a n c e s t h e u n i v e r s i t y ’s m i s s i o n and goals in providing intellectual leadership through research, teaching, and service. The college is striving to enhance graduate programs, while maintaining the strong undergraduate base. The college delivers research and quality business education programs at the undergraduate, masters, doctoral, and executive levels to citizens of the state of Florida and to select clientele n a t i o n a l l y a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y.

During the campaign trail, candidates often promise to bring changes to our state. They pledge to improve our unemployment rates, get Florida’s economy to thrive again, and perfect our education system. They promise to make changes that will be better for the state.

Some of the politicians will succeed, some will not.

Only time will tell how our new state leaders will do.

They sure have their work cut out for them.

While we might not all agree on our political beliefs, I think we all can agree that Florida needs some changes. I hope our new state leaders can make that happen.

n Thomas L . Keo Sincerely,

Thomas L. Keon Dean

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

F lo r i da F o r e c a s t 2010 - 2013 October 2010 Report

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright Š 2010 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved.

Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Elaine Vogt, Administrative Assistant Cecilia Chirinos, Researcher Jessica Fears, Researcher Alexandra Betrone-Harpst, Researcher

This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitiveness’ judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.

TABLE OF CONTENTS Florida Highlights and Summary........................ 5-11 Florida Forecast Tables...................................... 12-17

Tab l e o f c o n te n t s

Florida Forecast Charts...................................... 19-26 Florida News Summaries....................................... 27 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach.......... 29-33 Gainesville......................................................... 34-38 Jacksonville....................................................... 39-43 Lakeland............................................................ 44-48 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach............... 49-53 Naples-Marco Island......................................... 54-58 Ocala................................................................. 59-63 Orlando-Kissimmee.......................................... 64-68 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville......................... 69-73 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent.............................. 74-78 Tallahassee........................................................ 79-83 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater.................... 84-88 Industry Location Quotient..................................... 89

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y

H i g h l i g ht s o f the Oct o be r F l o r i d a F o r eca s t 2 0 1 0 - 2 0 1 3 • Congratulations, Governor. To the victor goes the spoiled.

• The labor market continues to be a disfiguring scar on Florida’s economy.

Unemployment will remain stubbornly high and will not fall below 10% until the 4th quarter of 2012.

• Payroll employment in Florida will slow to a trickle in the 1st quarter of 2011 before turning positive in the 2nd quarter.

• Payroll job growth year-over-year is expected to average 0.3% in 2011, 2.4% in 2012, and 3.1% in 2013. It will be the 4th quarter of 2015 before payrolls recover to their pre-recession levels.

• Unemployment rates could drift higher as the economy transitions into job growth mode in the latter half of 2010. 2011 should mark the beginning of a long, slow, and steady decline in unemployment. The emphasis is on slow - it may be 2018 before we see unemployment fall below 6% again.

• The sectors forecasted to have the strongest growth during 2010-2013 are Professional and Business Services (3.9%); Trade, Transportation & Utilities (2.6%); Education and Health Services (2.3%); and Manufacturing (1.3%).

• Florida’s housing construction sector bottomed out in 2009 after a four year plunge.

Housing starts will climb even more slowly than was expected as of last quarter’s forecast. In 2013, housing starts will recover to their 1997 level, rising gradually to just 138,800 starts.

• After two years of contracting, Real Gross State Product (GSP) will expand 2.3% in 2010, 1.6% in 2011, accelerate to 3.3% in 2012, and reach 3.6% in 2013.

• Real personal income growth will begin to accelerate in 2010 to 2.9%. From 20112013, personal income growth will average 3.1%, and will peak at 3.9% in 2011.

• Consumers should be willing to spend a little more this year during the holiday shopping season and retailers should be happier, but both are far from jolly.

• After a wobbly start to 2010, retail sales should finish stronger for the year. Retail sales will accelerate in 2011 and 2012, and will grow at an average pace of 5.3% during 2011-2013.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

5

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y

Dear Governor: Congratulations on winning the election and surviving a political cycle that, like the business cycle that preceded it, was one for the record books. I am glad I voted for you.

As the saying goes, “to the victor goes the spoiled.” That was not a typographical error, the economy in Florida has soured, and you have inherited a fiscal and economic calamity.

T o the V ict o r G o e s the Sp o i l e d

An Open Letter to the Next Governor of Florida

Private sector job creation remains anemic. The September estimate of the number of unemployed workers stood at 1.1 million corresponding to an unemployment rate of 11.9%. The unemployment rate could rise in the next couple of months, but the worst should be behind us by the time you take office.

Private sector job growth is far too slow to quickly recoup the 800,000+ jobs slashed from Florida’s payrolls. I do not anticipate that payrolls will get back to their pre-recession peak until the 4th quarter of 2015. The unemployment rate will remain above 10% until the 4th quarter of 2012, and it will not fall below 6% until the middle of 2018.

I guess the good news is that things should look pretty darn good by the end of your second term.

The reality is that there is very little that you can do to change the short run path the Florida economy is currently travelling. The Federal Government, with its trillions of dollars of debt, has had a difficult time battling the recession and its aftermath. The fiscal constraints of near term budget shortfalls will limit options and zap energy from other initiatives.

Speaking of the budget, a lot of people are angry at the size of the U.S. budget deficit and the mounting level of the national debt. They think that the Federal Government is too large and taxes are too high. They have a point, and I believe their discontent is warranted.

Psychologists say that depression is anger turned inward, and we ought to be careful about refocusing this ire on Florida’s state government. An objective analysis of the tax burden and size of government in Florida reveals that Florida consistently ranks near the bottom of the 50 states in various measures of the size of government and tax burden.

Budget gaps can be closed by raising revenue and/or cutting expenditures. A balanced mix of the two is preferable to using just one of these methods.

I would argue that we do not need smaller government in Florida per se, we need smarter government. The new reality of slower population growth in Florida necessitates a more active involvement of state government to help spur development in other engines of economic growth.

Job security is a remnant of a bygone era. No Floridian can expect to work for one company their entire career until retirement. The best Florida’s workers can aspire to have is employment security, continued employment with a number of companies over their careers. Employment security requires workers to be lifelong learners - honing, upgrading and expanding skill sets and improving productivity over the course of their working lives. We should facilitate this process.

This facilitation could take a variety of forms. We need a Bright Futures program for everyone else. It need not be an outright scholarship program like Bright Futures but could be a loan program that the state could subsidize. We could give tax incentives to

6

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y

employers who fund their employees’ ongoing education and training. Anything that incentivizes education and training will help Florida’s workers raise their productivity and income.

Given your corporate background you know that a skilled workforce is a powerful attractant for businesses and will strengthen economic development efforts in the state.

This will also require a direct investment in our K-12 schools, community colleges and universities - an investment we have thus far been reticent to make. This kind of government spending pays dividends over time.

Another area where it would be beneficial to boost spending is in infrastructure.

Transportation networks move people and goods and this is the basis of most economic activity and a critical underpinning of Florida’s economy now and in the future. I do not simply mean roads and bridges, but rail (high-speed, commuter and freight), ports, airports and the nexus of these transportation modes as well.

Congestion on transportation routes represents lost economic opportunity. Tourists and snow birds sitting in traffic are not spending money in our restaurants or our retail outlets.

The widening of the Panama Canal could be a boon for Florida’s ports if we are prepared to take advantage of the increasing flow of larger vessels that will carry their cargo through the widened canal. Making sure the ports are ready to handle these ships is just part of the preparation. The transportation interconnections must be ready as well so the cargo can be efficiently moved once the longshoremen have finished their job.

Most of the things I have suggested here are longer term (on a political timer) by nature.

They also happen to be the types of policies that will raise the potential output of Florida’s economy in the future, but not necessarily generate immediate returns.

Speaking of the future, the demographic shock that hit Florida during this recession and financial crisis – a temporary stagnation of population growth – foreshadows a new era of slower population growth in Florida. It necessitates the cultivation of other engines of economic growth as the population growth-as-industry will no longer have the same thrust to push Florida’s economy forward.

Some sectors in which we should strategically invest and formulate targeted policies to foster their growth include: the life sciences, private space industry, hi-tech and cleantech areas, to name a few. The short run harvest from these efforts will be scant, but they embody the potential to yield an economic bumper crop in the future.

I better wrap this up before I cross over into manifesto territory.

Governor, you are taking office at a difficult and critical time in Florida’s history. The challenges that we are facing are daunting. However, we have the opportunity to shape the path that future generations of Floridians will follow and ensure that the Florida that we give to our children and grandchildren is not less than or equal to, but greater than the Florida that was given to us.

I wish you and your administration success in these endeavors.

Sincerely, Sean M. Snaith Institute for Economic Competitiveness

7

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y

Florida’s Housing Market:

The Foreclosure Moratorium Only Prolongs the Misery.

The sins committed during Florida’s record housing boom must be punished. Unfortunately, it isn’t only the guilty who are serving the sentence. This penance is being endured not only by those who speculated, those who committed fraud and deception, but by all homeowners in the state who have seen the value of their homes plummet, and by all who are feeling the pain of an economy that collapsed in the wake of the housing bust.

Plunging prices and rampant foreclosures are the consequences of actions taken during the housing boom. They cannot be avoided and must be incurred before we can reach the end of the crisis and return the housing sector to something resembling normalcy.

Delaying the process doesn’t diminish or avert the pain, but only prolongs the misery. The freezing of foreclosures temporarily is like slowly removing a band aid - it hurts more and lasts longer than allowing the process to happen quickly by itself.

The robo-signing issue that had many banks temporarily halting foreclosure proceedings gives false hope to homeowners facing foreclosure. Whatever problems exist in sifting through the ownership of a mortgage that may have been sold and resold multiple times don’t change the fact that the borrower Figure 1. Housing Sales FAR Data

is unable to meet the obligations of the financial contract. The homeowner may end up staying in the home a few months longer if foreclosure is delayed, but ultimately will lose the property.

Despite this setback, the housing market continues to progress through a long and difficult recovery. Housing starts bottomed out in 2009 after a precipitous four year plunge. Starts will increase slightly in 2010 and 2011 and continue a mild acceleration into 2012-2013. This growth is welcomed, and will put an end to job losses in the Construction sector, which will see payrolls begin to expand in 2012.

Mortgage rates continue to hover at historical lows, but unfortunately credit is still constrained. These low rates are not spurring activity in the housing sector.

Refinancing to take advantage of these ultra-low mortgage rates is a near impossibility for those who have seen their home values plummet and now find themselves underwater in their mortgage.

High and persistent unemployment, weak job growth, and slow population growth, combined with these tight credit conditions, ensure a prolonged recovery period in the housing sector. The fundamental weaknesses in the underpinnings of housing demand are delaying the absorption of an inventory that is swelled by foreclosure.

Figures 1 and 2 display data from the housing market for existing homes as released by the Florida Figure 2. Median Housing Prices FAR Data

Florida

Florida

Single Family, Existing Homes

Single Family, Existing Homes $300,000.00

30000 25000

Realtor Sales

$250,000.00

Moving Average

20000

$200,000.00

15000

$150,000.00

10000

$100,000.00

5000

$50,000.00

0

Moving Average

$-

Year

8

Median Sales Price

Data Source: Florida Realtors

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

Year

Data Source: Florida Realtors

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y Association of Realtors (FAR), and cover the housing market through August 2010. Sales (Figure 1) continue to recover, and median prices (Figure 2) appear to be closing in on a bottom to their steep decline. How firm this bottom turns out to be remains yet to be seen. The still significant inventory, ongoing weakness in economic fundamentals and credit conditions, coupled with the ongoing foreclosure crisis will continue to test this bottom for several more months at least.

recovery is affirming that this outlook was correct.

The recovery in Florida will also resemble the path followed by the national economy excepting that Florida’s recovery didn’t start until 6 months after the national recession ended. Growth will be muted in the first two years of recovery, as Florida’s real Gross State Product expands at an average rate of 2.0% during 2010-2011. Economic activity will begin to accelerate in 2012-2013, over which growth will average a healthier 3.6%.

The steep drop in prices has stimulated sales. The 12-month moving average of existing home sales (the smoother of the two lines plotted in Figure 1) has been increasing steadily since September of 2008. Sales surged as the extension of the first time homebuyers tax credit expired in June, and then dropped in July causing a temporary wavering in the moving average of sales.

Nominal Gross State Product is expected to reach nearly $848 billion in 2013, as Florida progresses toward becoming a trillion-dollar economy. We are now forecasting GSP to finally break the trilliondollar mark in 2017, one year later than in our last forecast.

Prices may be near the bottom, as the 12 month moving average of the median sales price has hovered around $140,000 for the past 8 months. As of August 2010, median price stands at $144,000. In January, that median price fell to $130,900, which may represent a low point in the cycle.

Outlook for Florida 2010-2013 Gross State Product Florida’s Recovery Plods Onward Real Gross State Product (GSP) in Florida, the state-level analogue to Real GDP, has returned to a growth pattern in 2010. Growth will be weak in 2010 as Florida’s economy faces many of the same struggles as the nation as a whole. The hurdles that Florida’s consumers have to overcome in some cases are substantially higher. These include depleted, and in many cases negative, home equity, excessively high unemployment rates and paltry job creation.

Consequently, Florida’s consumers are lacking in confidence and are not spending at a pace consistent with a strong recovery.

Our 2nd Quarter 2009 forecast of a “gravy boat” recovery for the U.S. economy – a gradual, tapered recovery, stood in contrast to those predicting a V-shaped recovery. The pace of the national

Personal Income, Retail Sales, and Auto Sales Personal income growth will not be as strong as we had previously forecast. The first half of the year will be weaker than the second half, and that second half momentum will carry into 2011, when year-overyear growth will be 2.7%. Personal income growth will accelerate slightly to 4.7% in 2012 and then to 5.6% in 2013. Personal income growth in Florida will outpace that of the rest of the nation in 2012 and 2013 as Florida’s economy resumes solid income growth. This reversal in fortune in Florida comes after a five year period in which the state saw personal income growth below the nation as a whole. In 2013, the level of personal income in Florida is expected to be in excess of $811 billion.

Real disposable income growth, which has been depressed by the floundering economy, will increase to only 0.5% in 2007 and then contract for the next two years. It will finally show some growth in 2010, expanding at 3.0%. This burst of stronger growth will be short-lived, as tax hikes at the federal, state, and local levels will begin to chip away at disposable incomes in the state. During 2011-2013 real disposable income will increase by an average rate of 2.1% each year. That compares to the average rate of growth during the seven year period from 2001-2007, when the average rate of growth for real disposable income stood at 4.1%.

Consumers in Florida have been beleaguered, much more so than their counterparts around the country, by disappearing home equity and an evaporation of Institute for Economic Competitiveness

9

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y

stock market wealth. Housing wealth, which helped fuel home equity loan charged spending in Florida, has now become a drag on consumer spending.

Under water, many homeowners now find their homes to be a ball and chain rather than the wind beneath their wings.

The stock market made a strong recovery from the harrowing depths to which it plunged at the height of the financial crisis. However, despite the recovery, it is still well below the pre-crisis levels.

Stock prices seem to be treading water at this point, as more evidence of a national economic recovery that is decelerating comes to the foreground. The housing market in Florida has had no such luck, and while housing prices may be near their bottom, the home equity that has been lost could take decades to recover.

Double digit unemployment will also continue to weigh on consumer spending. As the labor market stabilizes and private sector job creation builds momentum it will help lift consumer confidence.

Pent-up demand and a clearer sense that their jobs are now safe will help to unlock some of the consumer spending that job insecurity hindered.

Retail sales in Florida will grow in 2010 and 2011. Once the labor market has fully stabilized and begins its long path to recovery retail spending will begin to accelerate. We expect retail sales to expand an average of 4.5% in 2010 and 2011. The average growth rate will be nearly 5.6% over the final two years of our forecast. Retail sales will not reach the home equity fueled growth rates experienced during the housing boom, but should help to alleviate the budget crisis in Tallahassee in 2012 and 2013. This year’s holiday shopping season may, for the first time in several years, be more than just a lump of coal to retailers. They will not, however, get everything on their wish list and will still have to work hard to get weary consumers in Florida to open up their wallets.

Expect sales and discounts to continue to abound once again this season.

The recession, financial crisis, credit crunch, volatile energy prices, and a collapsing domestic automotive industry did conspire to bring average new passenger car and truck registrations down overall in 2009 for a fourth straight year. Registrations will begin to climb after dipping for a few quarters in the wake of the “Cash for Clunkers” program. Pent-up demand and an improving economy will continue to bolster 10

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

registrations through the end of 2013. In that year registrations should recover to levels on par with those experienced during the 2000-2002 period.

Employment Overall payroll employment growth in the state is expected to shrink by -0.9% for 2010 versus 2009.

This comes after contracting at a -6.2% rate in 2009 compared to 2008.

Payroll job losses in Florida will persist through 2010 and into 2011 before starting to finally expand.

While payroll growth will finally take root in 2011, it will only gain momentum in 2012, when job growth versus a year ago is expected to come in at 2.4%.

Going forward, we have pushed growth further to the outer years of our forecast, in part due to the impact of the Gulf oil spill but also due to the persistent job losses and underwhelming job creation. Payroll job growth will reach 3.1% in 2013. Despite this acceleration of job growth, we believe it will now be the 4th quarter of 2015 before payroll employment levels return to their pre-recession peak.

The Construction sector, which has been in near free fall after peaking during the housing boom, will continue to show the painful effects of a pitiful housing market, the credit freeze, and an ongoing crisis in the commercial construction market. Any job creation from the shovel-ready projects that will be funded by the federal economic stimulus plan will be overwhelmed by job losses elsewhere in the sector.

As previously discussed, the bottom of the residential real estate market will give way to tepid growth in housing starts, and will not be enough to have a major impact on employment in Construction.

Despite the economic stimulus bill, this sector will continue to be one of the worst-performing private sectors in the state’s economy through 2013, as far as job growth is concerned.

Job growth will not return to the Construction sector until the 2nd quarter of 2012. Growth rates are expected to surge from 2.4% in 2012 to 8.7% in 2013. These growth rates while large are now being added to a dramatically lower base of employment in the sector. By the end of 2013, employment in this sector should be back at levels previously reached in the early 1990’s.

Now that Florida’s economy has exited the recession, the Professional and Business Services

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y

sector will once again show robust growth in Florida.

Job gains will be modest until mid-2011 and reach 2.2% in 2011, 5.7% in 2012, and 7.7% in 2013. This sector will recover far more quickly than others, and will get back to pre-recession levels of employment by the middle of 2013.

The Information sector will continue to shed jobs through most of 2010 before employment stabilizes and expands slightly in 2011. Newspapers continue to adapt to the structural changes transforming the industry. Advertising revenues have stabilized after falling precipitously. Several major newspapers and publishing groups have teetered on the edge or have entered into bankruptcy.

Meager job growth will return in 2011 as this will be the first year of job growth in this sector after eight of the nine prior years featured job losses year over year, including five straight years of net job losses leading up to 2011. Job growth will jump to 1.7% in 2011 as the recovery kicks into gear, and average 2.9% in 20122013.

The one sector that continued to create jobs during the recession and that is expected to continue to expand through the end of our forecast horizon is the Health and Education sector. During 2010-2013, employment in this sector is expected to expand at an average rate of 2.3%. The average growth rate for overall payroll employment during the same time frame is expected to be 1.2%.

It is still difficult to tell precisely how politics will impact healthcare in Florida, but clearly, with momentum toward expanding coverage and an older population, it appears that demand for health services will remain strong in the foreseeable future. This rising demand should continue to drive job growth in this sector. The possibility of Medicare cuts, however unlikely, does raise an issue of concern that could materially impact this sector’s future in Florida.

Manufacturing will continue to contract in Florida through 2010. Globalization and productivity gains in manufacturing have combined to severely reduce employment in this sector. The sector is emerging from this lengthy and challenging period and is now as competitive as it has been in many years prior. This and a weakening dollar will help drive job growth as exports continue to rise.

We are expecting to see job growth of 2.1% in this sector for the full year in 2011, followed by an even stronger year of job growth in 2012, when manufacturing employment will expand at a rate of 3.4%. For the first time in decades, manufacturing is expected to gain jobs in three consecutive years, as 2013 job growth is expected to be 3.2%.

U n e m p loy m e nt Unemployment rates in Florida remain at painfully high levels, despite the fact that the recession came to an end in the state. Real Gross State Product is growing as of the 1st quarter but the unemployment rate is not expected to begin its descent until the 1st quarter of 2011. The labor market tends to lag the economy overall, but the weak nature of the recovery and the aftermath of the housing bust are both working to delay and diminish the labor market recovery.

Unemployment will drift up in the 4th quarter of this year and remain above 10% until the 4th quarter of 2012. In 2011, unemployment will begin a slow decline through the end of 2013. By the end of 2013, unemployment will still be uncomfortably high at 8.7%.

Compared to the amazingly low levels of unemployment during the boom, these levels are still quite high. In fact, we do not expect to see unemployment in Florida fall below 6.0% again until 2018.

The problem of underemployment and marginally attached workers– those who are neither working nor looking for work, but indicate that they want and are available for a job, and have looked for work sometime in the past twelve months— and those who have given up searching for a job entirely, is substantial and will be a factor behind the persistently high unemployment rate. When adding these workers to the top level unemployment figure, this broader measure of unemployment, known as U6, paints an even grimmer picture of labor markets, and is over 19.2% through the 2nd quarter of 2010 in Florida, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This is higher than the previous BLS estimate of 19.0% that covered the 1st quarter of 2010.

It’s not as if we needed further confirmation that Florida’s labor market is in the depths of despair, but this statistic chisels it in stone.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

11

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s

Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

531.2

582.8

633.2

690.3

713.5

719.7

Florida (%Ch)

4.5

9.7

8.7

9.0

3.4

0.9

U.S.(%Ch)

3.5

6.0

5.5

7.5

5.7

504.0

538.8

568.4

603.1

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

700.0

714.6

734.0

768.5

811.3

-2.7

2.1

2.7

4.7

5.6

4.0

-1.7

2.7

3.0

4.2

4.5

606.8

592.5

575.2

591.5

604.4

624.0

648.4 3.9

Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)

Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch)

2.4

6.9

5.5

6.1

0.6

-2.4

-2.9

2.9

2.2

3.2

U.S.(%Ch)

2.5

10.1

4.3

7.6

-4.6

-0.1

-6.6

2.6

5.0

5.5

4.6

459.0

487.8

506.5

537.3

540.0

533.5

531.0

547.0

557.4

569.0

582.0

Florida (%Ch)

3.9

6.3

3.8

6.1

0.5

-1.2

-0.5

3.0

1.9

2.1

2.3

U.S.(%Ch)

2.5

3.4

1.3

4.0

2.3

1.7

0.6

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.3

559.0

607.3

670.0

721.4

741.9

744.1

722.7

746.1

767.2

804.0

848.8

Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$)

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch)

6.9

8.6

10.3

7.7

2.8

0.3

-2.9

3.2

2.8

4.8

5.6

520.4

548.6

589.3

613.6

613.4

603.5

582.9

596.6

606.2

626.5

650.5

(%Ch)

4.6

5.4

7.4

4.1

0.0

-1.6

-3.4

2.3

1.6

3.3

3.8

Employment

1.7

3.0

3.8

3.4

1.4

-1.0

-4.5

-1.1

0.9

1.9

2.3

Labor Force

1.3

2.3

2.9

2.9

2.2

1.4

-0.1

0.5

0.4

0.8

0.9

FL Unemployment Rate (%)

5.3

4.7

3.8

3.4

4.1

6.3

10.5

11.9

11.4

10.4

9.1

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

6.0

5.5

5.1

4.6

4.6

5.8

9.3

9.8

9.8

9.2

8.4

2.3

GSP (Bil. 2000$)

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago)

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction

-0.3

1.1

1.7

1.8

1.1

-0.6

-4.3

-0.6

0.8

2.1

1.1

3.4

4.0

2.6

0.2

-3.5

-6.2

-0.9

0.3

2.4

3.1

-1.2

0.2

-0.8

-6.5

1.6

-7.8

-11.6

-0.2

1.3

0.3

-1.0

3.8

9.4

11.3

7.2

-8.8

-17.4

-23.2

-8.3

-3.5

2.6

8.7

Manufacturing

-4.2

0.2

1.2

0.2

-4.2

-7.0

-13.0

-3.4

2.1

3.4

3.2

Nondurable Goods

-3.3

-2.1

-1.8

-2.0

-1.5

-6.2

-9.7

-0.7

0.4

0.4

0.0

Durable Goods

-4.7

1.4

2.6

1.3

-5.4

-7.4

-14.7

-4.8

3.1

5.0

4.8

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

-3.2

1.6

3.8

1.4

0.1

-2.1

-6.3

-1.0

2.0

5.2

4.3

0.5

3.4

4.1

2.9

1.5

-3.1

-8.1

-1.4

1.5

4.1

3.6

-0.2

2.7

4.1

2.0

0.5

-2.9

-6.6

0.2

-0.6

2.1

2.2

Financial Activities

2.2

3.8

5.0

3.2

-1.0

-4.6

-7.5

-4.4

-1.0

2.2

2.0

Prof. and Business Services

1.5

5.9

7.1

4.2

0.7

-6.1

-7.5

0.0

2.2

5.7

7.7

Edu & Health Services

3.7

3.0

2.4

2.7

3.1

2.1

1.1

2.9

2.0

2.3

1.8

Leisure & Hospitality

1.8

4.3

2.7

1.4

2.0

-1.4

-4.5

-1.9

-0.8

0.8

1.6

-3.7

-2.1

0.2

-0.9

-0.3

-3.4

-8.2

-6.8

1.7

3.5

2.3

Federal Gov't.

3.4

0.4

1.5

-0.8

0.2

1.4

2.1

4.3

-6.4

-1.5

-1.1

State & Local Gov't.

1.1

1.4

1.4

2.0

2.4

0.3

-1.2

-0.3

-0.7

0.3

1.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade

Information

Population and Migration Population (thous)

17,035.6 17,426.5 17,814.9 18,104.7 18,293.3 18,436.1 18,553.7 18,684.8 18,832.4 19,009.6 19,238.8

(%Ch)

1.9

2.3

2.2

1.6

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.2

Net Migration (thous)

76.1

88.5

74.0

44.3

26.3

17.9

15.4

20.8

25.2

34.0

48.5

(%Ch)

11.9

18.6

-16.2

-41.8

-36.7

-32.4

-8.2

36.3

20.8

34.7

42.9

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

207.7

238.8

272.7

205.2

101.7

60.8

33.8

43.7

63.0

107.5

138.8

Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

159.8

183.1

211.4

156.3

74.9

40.8

27.3

35.0

50.2

89.2

112.6

47.9

55.7

61.3

48.9

26.9

20.0

6.5

8.7

12.8

18.3

26.3

2.7

2.9

4.6

4.1

-0.3

1.7

1.5

1.8

2.0

Housing

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

Consumer Prices (%Ch)

12

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

3.3

4.2

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s

Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2010Q3

2010Q4

2011Q1

2011Q2

2011Q3

2011Q4

2012Q1

2012Q2

716.4

720.4

725.3

730.1

736.4

744.1

753.0

762.9

Florida (%Ch)

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.2

2.8

3.3

3.8

4.5

U.S.(%Ch)

3.2

3.4

3.1

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.5

597.4

598.7

599.9

602.2

605.6

609.9

Florida (%Ch)

4.6

4.9

4.8

0.8

1.4

U.S.(%Ch)

2.6

2.9

3.9

3.6

5.9

552.3

553.5

552.9

555.4

Florida(%Ch)

4.7

5.0

4.4

U.S.(%Ch)

1.7

2.1

1.7

748.6

750.9

757.7

2012Q3

2012Q4

2013Q1

2013Q2

2013Q3

2013Q4

773.6

784.5

793.9

805.3

817.1

829.0

5.0

5.4

5.4

5.6

5.6

5.7

4.0

4.4

4.7

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

614.7

620.7

627.1

633.5

638.4

644.9

651.7

658.5

1.9

2.5

3.1

3.6

3.9

3.8

3.9

3.9

4.0

6.5

6.0

5.8

5.4

4.7

4.2

4.4

4.6

5.1

558.6

562.7

561.4

566.7

571.6

576.4

575.8

578.9

583.6

589.8

0.5

1.1

1.7

1.5

2.0

2.3

2.4

2.6

2.2

2.1

2.3

1.1

1.3

1.6

1.3

1.6

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.2

1.1

1.2

762.4

769.4

779.3

789.1

798.1

808.6

820.2

831.3

843.1

854.8

865.9

Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)

Personal Income (Bil. 2000$)

Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$)

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch)

3.6

2.9

2.5

2.3

2.8

3.8

4.1

4.7

5.1

5.3

5.4

5.6

5.7

5.6

596.7

598.5

601.3

603.5

607.1

612.9

618.0

623.2

629.1

635.6

641.1

647.6

653.9

659.6

2.5

1.7

1.1

1.7

2.4

2.8

3.3

3.6

3.7

3.7

3.9

3.9

3.8

Employment

-0.6

0.0

0.6

0.3

1.2

1.5

1.6

1.8

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.3

2.3

Labor Force

0.3

0.4

0.0

0.1

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.9

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.8

0.9

11.8

11.9

11.6

11.5

11.3

11.1

10.9

10.6

10.3

9.9

9.6

9.2

8.9

8.7

9.7

9.9

9.9

9.8

9.8

9.6

9.5

9.3

9.1

8.9

8.8

8.5

8.3

8.2

2.1

GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch)

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago)

FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S.

0.1

0.5

0.6

0.3

0.8

1.4

1.8

2.1

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

-0.2

0.2

0.1

-0.5

0.3

1.1

1.8

2.3

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.1

3.2

3.2

0.8

1.1

1.4

0.9

1.3

1.5

1.4

0.8

-0.2

-0.8

-1.4

-1.4

-0.9

-0.5

Construction

-5.1

-2.1

-2.7

-4.8

-4.1

-2.5

-0.3

1.9

3.4

5.6

7.2

8.4

9.4

9.9

Manufacturing

-1.4

2.1

2.2

1.7

2.0

2.5

3.1

3.4

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.1

2.6

1.4

3.0

2.0

0.2

-0.4

-0.3

0.1

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.3

0.0

-0.2

-0.3

-2.9

1.7

2.3

2.5

3.4

4.0

4.7

5.1

5.2

5.3

5.2

5.1

4.7

4.1

0.2

0.3

0.3

1.1

2.5

3.8

5.1

5.4

5.2

5.0

4.6

4.4

4.3

4.1

-0.1

0.4

-0.3

0.7

2.0

3.4

4.5

4.4

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.8

3.2

0.7

1.4

-0.2

-1.0

-0.9

-0.4

0.7

2.2

2.8

2.7

2.4

2.2

2.2

2.0

-3.8

-4.3

-3.1

-1.9

-0.6

1.5

1.7

2.0

2.4

2.6

2.3

2.0

1.8

1.7

Prof. and Business Services

0.7

0.6

0.7

0.7

2.8

4.6

5.8

5.6

5.8

5.7

6.3

7.7

8.3

8.3

Edu & Health Services

3.2

2.8

2.3

2.0

1.9

1.9

2.2

2.4

2.4

2.2

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.7

Leisure & Hospitality

-1.0

-0.6

0.1

-1.0

-1.1

-1.2

-0.2

0.4

1.1

1.7

1.8

1.6

1.5

1.3

Information

-5.8

-4.9

-0.6

1.7

2.7

2.9

3.3

3.5

3.6

3.6

3.0

2.3

2.0

1.7

3.0

-1.6

-2.6

-16.6

-5.5

-1.1

-1.2

-1.4

-1.7

-1.9

-1.5

-1.2

-1.0

-0.8

-0.5

-0.5

-0.7

-0.8

-0.7

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.2

1.4

Florida Mining

Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities

Federal Gov't.

State & Local Gov't.

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)

18,702.1 18,737.4 18,773.7 18,811.5 18,851.3 18,893.1 18,937.0 18,983.5 19,032.5 19,085.6 19,142.8 19,204.2 19,269.6 19,338.7 0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.9

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.3

Net Migration (thous)

21.3

21.7

22.6

24.1

26.0

28.0

29.9

32.4

34.8

38.7

42.7

46.6

50.6

54.1

(%Ch)

35.0

23.7

17.5

14.7

22.0

29.0

32.2

34.4

33.7

38.5

42.7

44.1

45.3

39.5

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

41.1

43.1

48.4

57.5

67.7

78.3

90.3

102.2

115.5

122.1

128.2

137.2

143.0

147.0

Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

31.5

33.7

38.2

45.1

54.0

63.5

74.5

84.6

96.2

101.5

105.6

112.1

115.7

116.9

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

9.6

9.4

10.2

12.3

13.7

14.8

15.8

17.6

19.3

20.6

22.6

25.0

27.4

30.1

(%Ch)

1.6

1.1

1.1

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.9

1.9

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.0

Housing

Consumer Prices 1.6

1.7

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

13

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s

Table 3. Employment Quarterly* 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7,193.2

7,183.7

7,178.4

7,190.5

7,216.8

7,263.3

7,310.9

7,356.1

7,409.4

7,467.5

7,524.1

7,587.6

7,649.8

7,703.9

Manufacturing

312.5

313.6

314.6

316.5

318.8

321.4

324.2

327.4

330.2

333.1

335.7

338.5

340.3

341.9

Durable Goods

202.7

203.8

205.1

207.1

209.5

212.0

214.6

217.6

220.3

223.1

225.8

228.6

230.5

232.3

Wood Products Computer & Electronics Transportation Equipment Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

8.1

8.1

8.0

8.2

8.4

8.7

9.0

9.3

9.6

9.9

10.1

10.2

10.3

10.4

43.2

43.5

44.0

44.6

44.8

45.1

45.2

45.2

45.3

45.4

46.0

46.5

46.4

46.4

33.3

33.5

33.8

34.1

34.4

35.1

35.7

36.5

37.1

37.8

38.4

39.1

39.6

40.2

109.9

109.8

109.5

109.4

109.4

109.4

109.6

109.8

110.0

109.9

109.9

109.9

109.8

109.6

29.2

29.2

29.2

29.2

29.2

29.3

29.4

29.4

29.5

29.5

29.4

29.4

29.4

29.4

6,880.7

6,870.1

6,863.7

6,874.0

6,898.0

6,942.0

6,986.7

7,028.7

7,079.2

7,134.4

7,188.4

7,249.1

7,309.5

7,362.0

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.6

5.6

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

Construction

360.6

354.4

348.7

345.6

345.9

345.5

347.6

352.2

357.6

364.7

372.8

381.9

391.2

400.8

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

227.9

227.8

228.5

230.6

233.6

236.5

240.1

243.0

245.8

248.4

251.2

253.7

256.3

258.5

Wholesale Trade

313.3

312.7

312.7

315.7

319.7

323.3

326.6

329.4

332.0

335.5

338.9

341.7

344.6

346.4

Retail Trade

924.2

925.6

921.9

916.0

915.5

921.9

928.3

935.8

941.2

946.6

950.8

956.5

962.0

965.9

Information

132.5

132.7

134.0

135.2

136.0

136.6

138.5

139.9

140.8

141.5

142.6

143.2

143.6

144.0

Prof. & Bus. Services

1,041.0

1,043.2

1,045.4

1,055.5

1,070.2

1,091.4

1,105.9

1,114.6

1,132.8

1,153.2

1,175.5

1,200.8

1,226.8

1,248.9

Admin. & Support

523.1

524.3

523.2

524.8

533.0

547.4

558.2

564.3

578.5

594.9

612.8

633.1

654.0

671.0

Prof. Sci & Tech

435.6

436.5

439.7

448.0

454.6

460.9

464.3

466.4

469.7

473.1

477.1

481.6

486.1

490.6

82.3

82.4

82.5

82.8

82.7

83.1

83.5

84.0

84.6

85.2

85.6

86.2

86.7

87.2

Financial Activities

459.7

452.4

454.4

455.6

457.0

459.1

462.1

464.8

468.1

470.9

472.7

474.2

476.7

478.9

Real Estate & Rent

148.3

146.9

148.2

149.2

150.5

151.9

153.4

154.9

156.7

157.9

158.8

159.6

160.5

161.3

Mgmt. of Co.

Fin. & Insurance

311.4

305.5

306.3

306.4

306.6

307.2

308.7

309.9

311.5

313.0

313.9

314.6

316.2

317.6

1,091.3

1,099.5

1,102.0

1,106.2

1,112.3

1,120.0

1,125.9

1,132.3

1,138.5

1,144.7

1,147.2

1,154.1

1,159.7

1,163.8

Education Services

148.1

147.9

147.9

147.2

146.6

146.2

145.9

145.5

145.1

144.9

144.8

144.8

144.8

144.7

Health Services

943.2

951.5

954.1

958.9

965.8

973.8

980.0

986.8

993.4

999.9

1,002.4

1,009.3

1,014.9

1,019.1

Edu. & Health Service

Leisure & Hospitality

894.4

893.9

888.3

886.8

884.4

882.9

886.2

890.8

894.1

897.9

902.3

905.4

907.4

909.7

Other Services

314.0

314.8

315.9

315.8

316.0

316.8

317.3

317.0

317.7

318.4

319.2

319.4

320.0

320.3

Government

1,116.2

1,107.6

1,106.4

1,105.5

1,101.8

1,102.3

1,102.6

1,103.3

1,104.9

1,107.1

1,109.7

1,112.6

1,115.8

1,119.5

Federal Gov't.

136.0

129.9

129.3

128.7

128.6

128.5

127.7

126.9

126.5

126.1

125.7

125.5

125.2

125.0

State & Local Gov't

980.2

977.7

977.1

976.8

973.2

973.9

974.9

976.4

978.4

981.1

984.0

987.2

990.6

994.4

*Quarterly at an annual rate

14

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s

Table 4. Employment Annual 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

7,193.3 7212.24

7,386.0

7,616.3

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7,250.4

7,499.3

7,799.8

8,002.2

8,018.1

7,735.5

7,259.1

Manufacturing

409.8

410.7

415.4

416.3

399.0

371.0

322.8

311.3

317.8

328.7

339.1

Durable Goods

270.0

273.8

281.0

284.6

269.2

249.3

212.9

202.2

208.4

218.9

229.3

Wood Products

17.8

20.3

22.4

21.6

17.0

12.8

9.1

8.3

8.3

9.5

10.3

Computer & Electronics

53.4

52.5

51.4

50.1

49.2

48.0

44.5

43.1

44.6

45.3

46.3

Transportation Equipment

43.7

44.3

45.6

45.7

44.6

42.5

34.7

33.2

34.3

36.8

39.3

139.8

136.9

134.5

131.8

129.8

121.7

109.9

109.0

109.4

109.8

109.8

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

29.4

29.4

32.3

31.2

31.3

29.5

27.0

25.9

25.7

25.6

25.4

7,057.3

7,277.2

7,384.6

7,586.0

7,619.5

7,388.5

7,069.2

7,014.6

7,109.1

7,347.2

7,610.8

5.5

5.5

7.1

6.6

6.7

6.4

6.2

5.7

5.6

5.6

5.6

Construction

355.5

386.7

633.1

677.9

618.6

512.8

427.6

383.7

382.5

411.1

448.6

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

244.3

254.9

247.3

250.9

251.0

244.1

231.0

220.2

225.7

238.6

248.7

Wholesale Trade

330.9

342.9

341.4

351.4

356.7

348.1

336.3

331.0

335.9

351.1

363.6

Retail Trade

928.9

954.2

993.5

1,013.3

1,017.9

988.7

923.3

924.7

918.8

938.0

958.8

Information

166.3

162.9

163.2

161.7

161.3

155.8

143.0

133.2

135.5

140.2

143.4

1,010.3

1,069.6

1,145.5

1,193.6

1,201.7

1,128.4

1,043.4

1,042.8

1,065.6

1,126.6

1,213.0

Admin. & Support

553.7

590.6

636.7

662.8

660.7

589.4

531.6

525.4

532.1

574.0

642.7

Prof. Sci & Tech

384.9

404.0

431.2

451.5

460.0

456.3

431.7

435.9

450.8

468.4

483.8

71.8

75.0

77.7

79.3

81.0

82.8

80.1

81.5

82.8

84.3

86.4

491.8

510.3

535.8

552.6

547.2

521.9

482.8

461.4

456.5

466.5

475.6

Prof. & Bus. Services

Mgmt. of Co. Financial Activities Real Estate & Rent

157.7

166.5

176.6

182.4

178.1

169.8

155.2

149.3

149.9

155.7

160.0

Fin. & Insurance

334.1

343.8

359.1

370.2

369.1

352.1

327.6

312.0

306.6

310.8

315.6

Edu. & Health Service

917.5

944.7

967.8

993.5

1,024.0

1,045.5

1,057.2

1,088.3

1,110.1

1,135.4

1,156.2

Education Services

110.0

118.7

124.6

128.3

134.1

138.0

141.7

146.8

147.0

145.4

144.8

Health Services

807.5

826.0

843.3

865.3

890.0

907.5

915.5

941.5

963.2

990.0

1,011.4

Leisure & Hospitality

871.6

909.3

933.7

947.2

965.9

952.6

909.9

892.9

885.6

892.3

906.2

Other Services

322.3

329.4

334.9

338.0

345.6

335.4

312.7

313.1

316.1

317.6

319.7

1,053.0

1,066.3

1,081.1

1,099.2

1,122.6

1,126.9

1,117.5

1,119.9

1,104.0

1,104.5

1,114.4

Federal Gov't.

126.3

126.8

128.7

127.7

128.0

129.7

132.4

138.2

128.8

126.8

125.4

State & Local Gov't

926.8

939.5

952.4

971.5

994.6

997.2

985.1

981.7

975.2

977.7

989.0

Government

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

15

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s

Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly* 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

716.44

720.43

725.26

730.05

736.41

744.10

752.98

762.89

773.57

784.50

793.94

805.34

817.05

829.01

Wages & Salaries

325.43

327.38

330.01

332.71

336.08

340.06

344.43

348.38

352.89

357.81

363.26

368.77

374.27

379.44

Other Labor Income

76.32

77.00

79.11

80.24

81.38

82.70

84.47

85.93

87.29

88.83

90.49

91.91

93.28

94.79

Nonfarm

39.32

39.62

40.34

41.04

41.63

42.40

42.97

43.61

44.12

44.66

45.05

45.74

46.36

47.11

0.44

0.47

0.46

0.47

0.47

0.47

0.47

0.48

0.50

0.51

0.53

0.55

0.56

0.57

Property Income

176.19

177.19

177.30

177.57

178.79

180.69

183.61

187.59

191.77

195.76

199.43

202.48

206.07

210.21

Transfer Payments

147.65

147.73

148.20

148.49

148.93

149.15

150.15

150.68

151.56

152.36

153.38

154.99

156.29

157.62

Social Insurance

50.87

50.93

52.14

52.47

52.86

53.39

55.12

55.80

56.59

57.46

60.25

61.17

61.89

62.86

Personal Income

597.38

598.71

599.90

602.20

605.57

609.87

614.72

620.74

627.11

633.46

638.35

644.90

651.74

658.49

Wages & Salaries

Farm

Billions 2000 $ 271.34

272.06

272.97

274.44

276.37

278.72

281.18

283.47

286.08

288.92

292.07

295.31

298.54

301.39

Other Labor Income

63.64

63.99

65.44

66.19

66.92

67.79

68.96

69.92

70.77

71.73

72.76

73.60

74.41

75.29

Nonfarm

32.78

32.93

33.37

33.85

34.24

34.75

35.08

35.48

35.77

36.06

36.22

36.63

36.98

37.42

0.36

0.39

0.38

0.39

0.39

0.38

0.38

0.39

0.40

0.41

0.43

0.44

0.44

0.45

Property Income

146.91

147.25

146.66

146.47

147.02

148.09

149.89

152.63

155.46

158.07

160.35

162.14

164.38

166.97

Transfer Payments

123.11

122.77

122.58

122.49

122.47

122.25

122.58

122.61

122.87

123.02

123.32

124.11

124.67

125.20

42.42

42.33

43.13

43.28

43.47

43.75

45.00

45.40

45.88

46.40

48.44

48.98

49.37

49.93

Retail Sales (Billions $)

843.63

850.43

896.25

934.20

988.12 1056.89 1132.60 1172.31 1202.03 1247.13 1308.28 1358.20 1382.68 1394.31

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

246.95

249.41

253.33

255.53

258.95

263.75

267.96

271.85

275.42

279.21

282.90

286.71

289.87

293.00

205.91

207.27

209.55

210.78

212.94

216.17

218.75

221.20

223.27

225.45

227.46

229.59

231.22

232.73

Farm

Social Insurance

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

*Quarterly at an annual rate

16

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s

Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Billions Current Dollars

Personal Income

531.22

582.77

633.20

690.27

713.49

719.71

699.99

714.64

733.95

768.48

811.33

Wages & Salaries

264.52

285.62

310.34

333.10

343.33

339.10

321.60

324.59

334.71

350.88

371.44

Other Labor Income

59.15

63.35

69.52

72.91

73.58

73.70

73.33

75.93

80.86

86.63

92.62

Nonfarm

36.32

39.55

42.00

45.12

42.61

41.73

39.54

39.79

41.35

43.84

46.07

Farm

1.10

0.99

1.47

1.23

0.84

0.64

0.53

0.40

0.47

0.49

0.55

122.75

142.66

156.37

181.69

190.85

191.21

176.19

176.16

178.59

189.68

204.55

Transfer Payments

84.88

91.32

98.06

104.41

111.50

122.57

136.36

146.40

148.69

151.19

155.57

Social Insurance

39.04

42.31

46.20

49.91

51.13

51.23

49.46

50.58

52.71

56.24

61.54

Property Income

Billions 2000 $

Personal Income

503.98

538.75

568.40

603.11

606.81

592.48

575.21

591.53

604.39

624.01

648.37

Wages & Salaries

250.96

264.05

278.59

291.05

292.01

279.17

264.28

268.67

275.62

284.91

296.83

Other Labor Income

56.12

58.57

62.40

63.71

62.58

60.68

60.26

62.85

66.58

70.34

74.01

Nonfarm

34.46

36.57

37.70

39.42

36.24

34.35

32.49

32.93

34.05

35.60

36.81

Farm

1.04

0.91

1.32

1.07

0.71

0.53

0.44

0.33

0.38

0.40

0.44

116.46

131.87

140.35

158.73

162.31

157.41

144.79

145.80

147.06

154.01

163.46

Transfer Payments

80.53

84.43

88.03

91.23

94.83

100.89

112.04

121.19

122.45

122.77

124.32

Social Insurance

37.04

39.12

41.47

43.61

43.48

42.17

40.65

41.86

43.41

45.67

49.18

1397.29 1442.73 1449.69 1416.66 1242.20

951.97

693.92

834.48

968.87 1188.52 1360.87

Property Income

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations Retail Sales (Billions $)

206.70

224.11

242.85

259.64

262.34

254.48

235.43

246.89

257.89

273.61

288.12

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

196.10

207.19

218.01

226.87

223.12

209.50

193.45

204.36

212.36

222.17

230.25

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

17

on & Health ployment

ds)

October 2010

cha r t s

07 08 09 10 11 12 13

F l o r i d a F OR E C A S T

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Personal Income 15%

(% change year ago)

10% 5% 0% -5%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Florida Real Gross State Product 10%

(% change year ago)

8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

19

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate

Florida Construction Employment (Thousands)

700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0

20

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Manufacturing Employment 500.0

(Thousands)

450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0 250.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment 1650.0

(Thousands)

1600.0 1550.0 1500.0 1450.0 1400.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

21

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Financial Activities Employment (Thousands)

560.0 540.0 520.0 500.0 480.0 460.0 440.0 420.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Florida Professional & Business Services Employment (Thousands)

1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0 700.0

22

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Education & Health Services Employment 1200.0

(Thousands)

1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0 700.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Florida Information Employment 190.0

(Thousands)

180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

23

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Education & Health Services Employment (Thousands)

1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0 700.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Florida Federal Government Employment 155.0 150.0 145.0 140.0 135.0 130.0 125.0 120.0 115.0

(Thousands)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Florida State & Local Government Employment (Thousands)

1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0

24

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Housing Starts (thousands)

300.0

9%

250.0

8%

200.0

7%

150.0

6%

100.0

5%

50.0 0.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Total Private Housing Starts 30 year Mortgage Rates

4%

New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations (% change year ago)

40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Florida Leisure & Hospitality Employment 1000.0

(Thousands)

950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0 750.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

25

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Gross State Product (% change year ago)

15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Gross State Product

Florida Employment (Thousands)

8500.0 8000.0 7500.0 7000.0 6500.0 6000.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Wage & Salary Employment

Florida Consumer Price Index (% change year ago)

6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

26

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL CPI

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

F l o r i d a Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Illegal Immigration cost US $100 billion, Florida $5.5 billion

HUD awards Florida $26.6M

• The report titled, “The Fiscal Burden of Illegal Immigration on U.S. Taxpayers” estimates that each household pays approximately $1,117 per year to assist federal spending related to the estimated thirteen million illegal immigrants and U.S. born children. Florida alone bears $5.5 billion in costs.

• The grants are meant to encourage states to prepare for potential natural disasters. They have asked states to plan strategies for reducing damages.

• The Federation for American Immigration Reform reports that federal and local taxpayers give $113 billion per year for immigration costs.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, July 8, 2010

Breakthrough on unemployment benefits

• The Senate has renewed a bill to assist more than a million Floridians with the effects of unemployment. Emergency unemployment benefits target the desperate job seekers who use them for necessities.

• The bill originally cut off benefits on June 5 and Congress asked for an extension until November. The extension restored benefits to 2.3 million unemployed Americans.

• The maximum unemployment insurance payment is $275 per week.

Source: Orlando Sentinel, July 21, 2010

UCF, UF getting cash to promote energy-smart homes

• The U.S. Department of Energy is issuing $30 million to fifteen partnerships, two of these with the University of Central Florida and the University of Florida. Partners are expected to invent strategies that allow homes to become more energy efficient.

• These funds will be distributed during the first eighteen months of the project. After this period, the universities can potentially split another $20 million per year for three oneyear extensions.

• The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development provided the nation with $312 million through The Disaster Recovery Enhancement Fund. Florida received $26.6 million.

• Florida has received more than $81 million in the past two years from HUD. Source: South Florida Business Journal, August 26, 2010

Florida bank losses deepen

• Florida banks recorded a loss of $263 million in the second quarter, while the Federal Deposit Insurance Commission’s earnings were at a three year high.

• Florida banks are suffering from uncollected loans. However, Florida is now seeing a decline in late or unpaid loans, following the national trend.

• The state’s banks reported having more repossessed real estate at midyear, valued at $1.95 billion. As of March 31, 2009 the banks owned $1.81 billion worth of repossessed real estate.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, August 31, 2010

Florida gets $208M is federal housing aid

• The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development has awarded Florida $208 million as a part of the Neighborhood Stabilization funding. The project is awarding $1 billion nationwide.

• The money is meant to help the places hit hardest by the housing crisis. Miami-Dade County will receive $20 million, Broward will be awarded $27 million, and Palm Beach County will get $11.2 million.

Source: South Florida Business Journal, September 9, 2010

• One project focuses on implementing solar energy into homes in marine, hot climates; the other studies energy efficient systems for homes.

State facing end of month deadline on A/C rebates

Florida may lose billions in tourism from oil spill

• Individuals could collect $1,500 for energy efficient heaters and air conditioners, only after the state approves it.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, July 22, 2010

• The U.S. Travel Association, the nation’s biggest travel trade group, predicted that the oil spill will cost the Gulf tourism industry $7.6 million to $22.7 million.

• The trade group has asked BP for $500 million to fund an “emergency” marketing campaign. It hopes to gain the support of the federal government by arguing that this lofty investment will generate $7.5 billion for the tourism industry.

Additionally, USTA asked for tax incentives and more accessible business loans.

• An energy rebate program, which offered $31.5 million in federal stimulus money, may be lost if the Legislature does not act before the end of the month.

• Officials from the Office of the Chief Financial Officer declared that the money cannot be legally spent without the approval from the full Florida House and Senate.

Source: Ocala Star Banner, September 16, 2010

Source: Orlando Sentinel, July 22, 2010

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

27

Met r o s

Oc tobe r 2 010

F l o r i d a F OR E C A S T

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

P r o fi l e s The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is comprised only of Volusia County. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway, which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500.

Quick Facts:

• Metro population estimate of 495,890 as of July 1st, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• A civilian labor force of 255,337 in September 2010 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 12.5% as of September 2010, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 31,912 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• Volusia County Schools – 8,273 employees • Halifax Health – 4,232 employees

• Florida Hospital (All divisions) – 3,717 employees

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is expected to show modest growth in most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast.

Personal income is expected to average 3.8 percent growth, while the per capita income level will be 27.8. Average annual wage will be the lowest level in the state at 38.0. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.3 percent. Population growth will be the lowest in the state at 0.2 percent. Gross Metro Product will also be one of the lowest in the state at 11,862.68 (Mill).

The employment growth rate is expected to average 1.1 percent each year. Unemployment will average 11.5 percent annually, just above the state’s average.

The Deltona MSA will experience the most growth in the Professional and Business Services sector, with an average growth rate of 2.9 percent annually. The Federal Government sector will see the second highest growth in the MSA, at 2.7 percent annually. The Education and Health Services sector follows with an annual growth rate of 2.2 percent. The Leisure and State and Local Government will both experience a decline at -0.2 percent.

• Volusia County Government – 3,519 employees

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s

• Publix – 2,415 employees

Telephone company expansion helps to create jobs in DeLand

• State of Florida – 2,423 employees

• Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – 2,139 employees

• Daytona State College – 4,589 employees • U.S. Government – 1,434 employees

• Embry Riddle Aeronautical University – 1,198 employees

Source: Department of Economic Development, Volusia County

• Frontier Communications Corporation, based in Stamford, Connecticut, sealed the deal with Verizon for 4.8 million access lines in fourteen states. The deal was valued at $8 billion.

• The agreement has created 124 jobs at the DeLand call center, sixty five of those will be permanent.

• Frontier Communications is the largest exchange carrier for rural communities. The DeLand call center is one of the largest out of eight nationwide call centers.

Source: The Daytona Beach News-Journal, July 2, 2010

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

29

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Volusia School Board OKs free breakfast

Victoria Park looks to get large shopping center

• All Volusia County students will be allowed free breakfast. Eighty percent of the student population qualifies as part of low-income families.

• Kotter Land Partners is working with developer Michael Collard Properties of Winter Park to build a new shopping center in southeast DeLand.

• School-Way director Joan Young estimates the breakfast plan will end up costing $124,000 if every child chooses to eat on campus.

• The anchor of the new shopping center is a 45,600 square foot grocery store. Surrounding this area there are 18,550 additional square feet, equivalent to about ten additional stores. Two one-mile tracts of land on the outer portions are planned to include restaurants and banks.

• The Legislature encouraged Florida schools to adopt the free breakfast policy to eliminate the stigma associated with the program being for low-income students.

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, July 29, 2010 Volusia plans even more artificial reefs • Volusia county plans to double its artificial reef site to help the fishing industry.

• The county has already finished 6 sites, each valued at $22,500. If the cost of each site remains constant, the county can afford 80 more sites.

• A potential fishing ban in hopes of limiting bottom fishing to save incidental red snapper deaths could close off 4,827 square miles. This ban would severely inhibit fishermen. Twelve of the thirteen proposed reefs would be outside of the potential banned zone.

Source: The Daytona Beach News-Journal, August 19, 2010

30

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

Source: The Daytona Beach News-Journal, September 9, 2010 Fish-Halifax cancer partnership continuing • Halifax has agreed to cough up $3.2 million that Bert Fish Medical Center has requested to continue the partnership.

• Halifax’s new agreement with Fish to jointly run the cancer programs at Florida Hospital and Halifax is valid for another ten years.

• The partnership currently serves 1,000 local patients per month.

Source: Daytona Beach News-Journal, September 15, 2010

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach MSA Industry Location Quatients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining and Logging, construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

1.4

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product 13000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

11000.0 10000.0 9000.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate

8000.0 7000.0

Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment 175.0 170.0 165.0 160.0 155.0 150.0 145.0 140.0 135.0

1.2

12000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

1

(Thousands)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Deltona Payroll Employment

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

31

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

October 2010 Forecast

2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

16 2.9 5.7 10.3 13.4 4.8 32.4 27 36.7 1.9

16.1 2.9 5.8 10.4 13.4 5.1 32.6 27.1 36.9 2.6

16.2 2.8 5.8 10.5 13.4 5.1 32.9 27.2 37.2 2.6

16.4 2.9 5.8 10.5 13.5 4.8 33.1 27.3 37.4 2.7

16.5 3.1 5.9 10.6 13.6 1.7 33.4 27.5 37.7 2.7

16.7 3.4 6 10.7 13.7 2 33.8 27.7 37.9 2.6

16.9 3.8 6 10.8 13.8 2.5 34.1 27.9 38.1 2.3

17.1 4.5 6.1 11 13.9 3.1 34.5 28.1 38.3 2.2

17.3 5 6.2 11.2 14.1 3.6 35 28.4 38.5 2.1

17.6 5.4 6.2 11.3 14.2 3.8 35.4 28.6 38.7 2.2

17.8 5.3 6.3 11.4 14.3 3.7 35.7 28.7 39 2.4

18 5.1 6.4 11.6 14.4 3.5 36.1 28.9 39.2 2.5

18.2 5.1 6.5 11.7 14.5 3.4 36.5 29.1 39.5 2.6

18.5 5.1 6.6 11.9 14.7 3.4 36.9 29.3 39.7 2.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

32

154.8 0 7.6 -1.6 147.2 0.1 8.3 -4.1 29.4 -1.7 4.9 22.4 2.1 2.2 -7.7 6.8 -3 16.7 -1.3 32.6 4.3 20.7 1.2 8.6 1.6 1.7 18.1 20.4 -2

154.8 0.3 7.6 0.7 147.2 0.2 8.2 -1.3 29.4 -1.2 4.8 22.4 2.1 2.1 -6.6 6.7 -2.9 16.8 -0.3 32.8 4.4 20.7 -0.7 8.6 1.5 1.6 12.8 20.3 -1.6

154.7 0.2 7.6 1.1 147.1 0.1 8 -1.6 29.3 -1.8 4.8 22.3 2.1 2.2 -3.1 6.8 -1.3 16.9 1.6 32.8 3.3 20.6 -2 8.6 1.9 1.6 12.8 20.3 -1.1

155.1 0.7 7.7 2 147.4 0.6 7.9 -4 29.3 -0.6 4.9 22.2 2.1 2.2 0.8 6.8 -0.1 17.1 2.8 33 3.2 20.6 0.1 8.7 1.6 1.6 -13.2 20.3 -0.3

155.6 0.5 7.7 2.2 147.8 0.4 7.9 -4.7 29.4 -0.1 4.9 22.2 2.1 2.2 2 6.8 0.1 17.3 4 33.2 1.9 20.5 -1 8.7 0.8 1.6 -3.3 20.3 -0.5

156.4 1.1 7.8 2.7 148.6 1 7.9 -3.1 29.6 0.6 5 22.3 2.2 2.2 2.6 6.9 2 17.6 4.9 33.4 2 20.5 -1.1 8.7 0.9 1.6 0.4 20.3 -0.1

157.2 1.6 7.9 3.4 149.3 1.5 7.9 -0.9 29.8 1.7 5 22.5 2.2 2.2 3.1 6.9 2.1 17.8 5.1 33.5 2.1 20.5 -0.3 8.7 0.7 1.6 -0.1 20.3 0.1

158.2 2 8 3.9 150.2 1.9 8 1.3 30.1 2.8 5.1 22.7 2.2 2.3 3.8 6.9 2.2 17.9 4.6 33.7 2.2 20.6 0.3 8.7 0.5 1.6 -0.8 20.4 0.3

159.2 2.3 8.1 4 151.2 2.2 8.1 2.8 30.3 3.3 5.1 22.8 2.3 2.3 4.3 7 2.6 18.1 4.8 33.8 2 20.7 0.9 8.7 0.7 1.6 -1.1 20.4 0.8

160.3 2.5 8.1 4.1 152.2 2.4 8.3 4.7 30.6 3.4 5.2 23 2.3 2.3 4.7 7 2.6 18.4 4.8 34 1.7 20.8 1.5 8.8 0.7 1.6 -1.3 20.5 1

161.4 2.7 8.2 4.1 153.2 2.6 8.5 6.7 30.8 3.3 5.3 23.1 2.3 2.3 4.3 7.1 2.3 18.8 5.7 34 1.5 20.8 1.5 8.8 0.8 1.6 -0.9 20.6 1.2

162.6 2.8 8.3 3.8 154.4 2.8 8.7 7.8 31 3.2 5.3 23.3 2.3 2.3 3.6 7.1 2 19.1 7 34.2 1.5 20.9 1.3 8.8 0.9 1.6 -0.6 20.7 1.4

163.8 2.8 8.3 3.4 155.4 2.8 8.9 8.7 31.3 3.1 5.4 23.4 2.4 2.4 3.2 7.1 1.8 19.5 7.5 34.3 1.3 20.9 1.1 8.8 0.8 1.6 -0.5 20.8 1.6

164.7 2.7 8.4 2.9 156.4 2.7 9 9.2 31.4 2.8 5.4 23.5 2.4 2.4 3 7.2 1.7 19.8 7.6 34.4 1.1 20.9 0.8 8.8 0.6 1.6 -0.3 20.9 1.7

11429.5 494.1 -0.3 253.7 0.4 12.3 761 639 122

11466.4 494 -0.2 254.7 0.3 12.4 823 720 102

11524.5 493.7 -0.2 255.6 -0.1 12.2 988 884 104

11580.3 493.7 -0.1 256.2 1 12.1 1254 1120 134

11649.7 493.8 0 257 1.3 12.1 1594 1433 161

11750.1 494.1 0 257.7 1.2 11.9 1960 1762 198

11838.5 494.5 0.2 258.4 1.1 11.7 2378 2136 242

11939.5 495.2 0.3 258.9 1 11.5 2799 2490 309

12049.7 496 0.4 259.3 0.9 11.2 3184 2837 348

12165.4 496.8 0.5 259.5 0.7 11 3349 2973 376

12255.7 497.6 0.6 259.9 0.6 10.6 3481 3069 413

12369.4 498.6 0.7 260.3 0.6 10.2 3712 3254 458

12478.1 499.7 0.8 260.9 0.6 9.9 3853 3349 504

12582 500.9 0.8 261.4 0.8 9.6 3930 3372 557

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL October 2010 Forecast Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

12.2 4.5 4.7 7.5 11.6 2.5 26.2 24.8 29.8 3.9

13.4 9.6 5.1 8.3 12.4 6.8 28.1 26 31 4.1

14.3 6.3 5.5 8.8 12.8 3.2 29.3 26.3 32 3.4

15.3 7.3 5.9 9.3 13.4 4.4 30.9 27 34 6.1

15.9 3.9 6.1 9.8 13.5 1.2 31.9 27.1 35.1 3.3

16 0.4 6 10 13.1 -2.8 32.1 26.4 35.7 1.6

15.6 -2.2 5.7 10 12.8 -2.4 31.5 25.9 35.9 0.5

16 2.2 5.7 10.3 13.1 2.1 32.3 26.5 36.6 1.9

16.5 3.1 5.9 10.6 13.5 3.4 33.3 27.4 37.6 2.7

17.2 4.7 6.1 11.1 14 3.2 34.8 28.2 38.4 2.2

18.1 5.1 6.5 11.7 14.5 3.5 36.3 29 39.4 2.5

173.9 1.8 10.6 3.9 163.3 1.6 15.9 7.3 33.2 0.1 5 25.9 2.4 2.4 8.3 7.9 7.2 19.4 -0.9 30.5 0.2 21.6 -0.4 8.3 1.2 1.4 -0.6 22.8 4.4

172.5 -0.8 10.3 -2.6 162.1 -0.7 14.2 -10.4 33.6 1.1 5.3 25.8 2.5 2.5 5.2 8 2.2 18 -7.1 30.6 0.2 22.6 4.6 8.1 -1.7 1.4 -0.6 23.1 1.4

166.8 -3.3 9.1 -12.2 157.7 -2.7 11.3 -20.2 32.5 -3.3 5.2 24.8 2.4 2.6 3.7 7.7 -4.1 17.4 -3.2 31.9 4.2 22.5 -0.2 8.2 1 1.4 0 22.2 -4

156.5 -6.2 7.8 -14.4 148.8 -5.7 8.8 -22.2 30 -7.5 4.9 23 2.1 2.4 -9.2 7 -8.7 17.3 -1 31.3 -1.6 21 -6.5 8.5 3.8 1.4 1.8 20.9 -5.9

154.5 -1.3 7.6 -2.7 147 -1.2 8.2 -6.8 29.5 -1.7 4.8 22.5 2.1 2.2 -7.8 6.8 -3.4 16.7 -3.4 32.3 2.9 20.7 -1.5 8.6 0.3 1.6 13.8 20.4 -2.4

155.5 0.6 7.7 2 147.7 0.5 7.9 -3.4 29.4 -0.5 4.9 22.3 2.1 2.2 0.6 6.8 0.2 17.2 3.3 33.1 2.6 20.5 -1 8.7 1.3 1.6 -1.7 20.3 -0.5

158.7 2.1 8 3.9 150.7 2 8.1 1.9 30.2 2.8 5.1 22.8 2.2 2.3 4 7 2.4 18.1 4.8 33.8 2 20.6 0.6 8.7 0.6 1.6 -0.8 20.4 0.5

163.1 2.8 8.3 3.5 154.8 2.7 8.8 8.1 31.1 3.1 5.4 23.3 2.3 2.4 3.5 7.1 1.9 19.3 7 34.2 1.4 20.9 1.2 8.8 0.8 1.6 -0.6 20.7 1.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 157.6 164.4 170.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.1 4.3 3.9 Manufacturing 9.4 9.8 10.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.5 3.9 4.3 Nonmanufacturing 148.1 154.6 160.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 4.4 3.9 Construction & Mining 11.5 12.9 14.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.9 12.8 14.5 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 31.5 32 33.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 1.7 3.7 Wholesale Trade 4.6 4.7 4.8 Retail Trade 24.3 25 26 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.6 2.3 2.4 Information 2.3 2.3 2.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.6 -2.5 -3.3 Financial Activities 6.5 6.9 7.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 7.2 5.5 Prof & Business Services 16.4 18.1 19.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.8 10.4 8.1 Educ & Health Services 30.1 30.7 30.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.7 1.9 -0.7 Leisure & Hospitality 20 21.1 21.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 5.3 2.9 Other Services 7.8 8.2 8.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.9 4 0.1 Federal Government 1.4 1.4 1.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 0 1.2 State & Local Government 20.7 21.1 21.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 2.1 3.6 Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

9906.7 10509.9 11339.7 11799.4 11720.5 11545.2 11160.9 11405.0 11626.1 11998.3 12421.3 467.5 477.7 486.9 494.6 498.2 497.2 495.6 494.2 493.9 495.6 499.2 1.8 2.2 1.9 1.6 0.7 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.4 0.7 226.8 232.7 242.7 247.6 251.2 254.2 253.9 254.4 256.6 259 260.6 2.7 2.6 4.3 2 1.4 1.2 -0.1 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.6 5.2 4.5 3.6 3.2 4 6.5 11 12.5 12.1 11.4 10.1 6170 6178 6360 4133 2209 1364 722 809 1449 2928 3744 4987 4777 5118 3100 1585 1035 662 723 1300 2609 3261 1183 1401 1242 1033 624 329 60 87 149 319 483

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

33

Gai n e s vi l l e

P r o fi l e s The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist counties and is located in the northcentral portion of the state. This metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history museum.

Quick Facts:

• Metro population estimate of 260,690 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Alachua County population estimate of 243,574 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Gilchrist County population estimate of 17,116 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• A civilian labor force of 142,433 in September 2010 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 8.3% as of September 2010, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 11,858 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• University of Florida – 14,723 employees • Shands Hospital – 12,588 employees

• Veterans Affairs Medical Center – 4,317 employees • Alachua County School Board – 4,299 employees • City of Gainesville – 2,200 employees

• Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 2,056 employees

• North Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,700 employees

• Nationwide Insurance Company – 1,300 employees • Alachua County Government – 1,120 employees • Santa Fe Community College - 796 employees

Source: University of Florida and Gainesville Council for Economic Outreach

34

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Gainesville MSA is expected to show modest growth in all of the economic indicators measured in this forecast, relative to the state. Personal income growth will see a 3.5% growth while per capita income level is expected to average 29.9. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.6 percent, while the average annual wage level will be 42.9. Population growth will average 0.4 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be the second lowest in the state at a level of 7,936.68 (Mill).

Gainesville will see an employment growth rate of 1.0 percent annually. The Gainesville MSA will maintain the lowest unemployment rate in the state, at 7.0 percent.

The fastest growing sector in the area will be the Professional and Business Services sector, with an average growth rate of 4.1 percent annually. This is followed by the Education and Health Services sector with an average annual growth rate of 1.7 percent. The Construction and Mining sector and the State and Local government sectors will experience a decline, with an annual growth rate of -0.4 and -0.1 percent, respectively.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s GRU begins building $54 million operations center • Gainesville Regional Utilities has begun construction on a new operations center to replace their downtown complex and consolidate six other locations into a more efficient complex.

• Although the new construction will increase rates, GRU says it is the most opportune time for construction. Costs to build the facility are low, as contractors are struggling to find work.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, July 7, 2010

Gai n e s vi l l e

County: Fire fee out, tax hike in • The fire fee proposed in June has been officially dismissed in favor of an increase in property taxes.

• The property tax rates, which fund different departments of the County Commission, will increase collectively by about 4.5% next year.

• The proposed fire fee cost $170,000, including the assessment of the fee and notices to homeowners.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, July 14, 2010 Suwannee water to raise tax; first time in 20 years • The Suwannee River Water Management District is proposing a property tax increase that would raise the taxes on a $100,000 piece of land by $5.35.

• The rate increase will be discussed at two public meetings before it is finalized during a meeting on September 28.

• Prioria CEO Bryan da Frota claims that the project will also support our own troops. The Maveric will be used by Canada in Operation Athena, which supports the U.S. Enduring Freedom operation.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, August 14, 2010 Genetics researcher lands $9.8 million health grant • UF Center for Pharmacogenomics director Julie Johnson received a $9.8 million grant to study the genes that affect the response to blood pressure medications.

• Her grant is one of 14 given out by the Pharmacogenomics Research Network sponsored by the National Institute of Health.

• Research for all grants focuses on using DNA to find more effective medications for individual patients.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, September 8, 2010

• The District covers nine counties and portions of six more.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, July 17, 2010 Gainesville’s Prioria Robotics wins $2.8 million contract to make drones • Prioria Robotics, a firm created by UF graduates in 2003, has received a $2.8 million contract from the Canadian Department of National Defense for its Maveric aircraft.

• The company has hired 9 employees for the contract and plans to hire more to complete the project.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

35

Gai n e s vi l l e Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining and Logging, construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

(percent)

0.8

1

1.8

2

2.2

2.4

8500.0

(Millions 2000 $)

7500.0 7000.0 6500.0 6000.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

125.0 120.0

36

1.6

8000.0

130.0

115.0

1.4

Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product

5500.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Gainesville Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Gainesville Real Personal Income

Gainesville Payroll Employment 135.0

1.2

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income

Gai n e s vi l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL

October 2010 Forecast

2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

9.2 3.6 5.3 3.9 7.7 5.4 35.2 29.4 41.4 2.4

9.3 2.6 5.3 3.9 7.7 4.8 35.4 29.4 41.7 2.7

9.3 2.4 5.4 3.9 7.7 4.6 35.6 29.5 42 2.6

9.4 2 5.4 4 7.7 4 35.8 29.5 42.3 2.8

9.4 2.5 5.5 4 7.8 1.1 36 29.6 42.6 2.8

9.5 2.9 5.5 4 7.8 1.5 36.3 29.7 42.8 2.7

9.6 3.2 5.6 4.1 7.9 1.8 36.6 29.9 43.1 2.4

9.7 3.7 5.6 4.1 7.9 2.3 37 30.1 43.3 2.3

9.8 4.2 5.7 4.2 8 2.7 37.4 30.3 43.5 2.2

9.9 4.5 5.7 4.2 8 2.9 37.7 30.5 43.8 2.3

10 4.4 5.8 4.2 8.1 2.8 38 30.6 44.1 2.5

10.2 4.5 5.9 4.3 8.1 2.8 38.4 30.8 44.4 2.6

10.3 4.5 5.9 4.3 8.2 2.9 38.8 30.9 44.7 2.7

10.4 4.6 6 4.4 8.3 2.9 39.2 31.1 45 2.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

128 1.1 3.9 -2.5 124.2 1.2 4.5 -0.9 18.1 -0.2 2.5 13.1 2.5 1.5 -5 5.7 -3.6 10.6 1.7 23.2 3.6 13.2 0.1 4.6 2.7 4.7 10 38.1 0.8

127.7 0.3 3.9 -1.2 123.8 0.3 4.4 -2.1 18.1 0.8 2.5 13.1 2.5 1.5 -2.8 5.6 -4.9 10.6 1.6 23.3 2 13.1 -1.5 4.6 1.7 4.5 4.8 38 -0.2

127.5 -0.1 3.9 1.4 123.6 -0.1 4.3 -4.1 18 0.1 2.5 13 2.5 1.5 -0.5 5.7 -4.5 10.7 0.8 23.3 1.5 13.1 -0.6 4.6 2.2 4.5 1.4 37.9 -0.6

127.6 -0.6 3.9 1.7 123.7 -0.6 4.3 -4.7 18 -0.4 2.5 12.9 2.5 1.5 0.8 5.7 -2.4 10.9 2.3 23.4 1 13 -1.1 4.6 1.4 4.5 -9.3 37.8 -0.8

127.7 -0.3 4 2.3 123.7 -0.3 4.3 -5.1 18 -0.5 2.5 12.9 2.5 1.5 1.4 5.7 -0.2 11 3.9 23.5 1.5 13 -1.3 4.6 0.3 4.5 -5.3 37.7 -1.2

128.2 0.4 4 2.8 124.1 0.3 4.3 -3.6 18.1 0.3 2.5 13 2.6 1.5 2 5.7 1.7 11.2 4.8 23.6 1.6 13 -1.4 4.6 0.3 4.4 -1.3 37.7 -0.9

128.5 0.8 4.1 3.6 124.5 0.7 4.3 -1.5 18.2 1.3 2.6 13 2.6 1.5 2.9 5.8 1.8 11.3 5 23.7 1.7 13 -0.5 4.6 0.1 4.4 -1.5 37.7 -0.6

129.1 1.1 4.1 4 125 1 4.3 0.4 18.4 2.4 2.6 13.1 2.6 1.6 3.7 5.8 2 11.3 4.5 23.8 1.7 13.1 0 4.6 0.1 4.4 -1.5 37.7 -0.4

129.6 1.5 4.1 4.2 125.5 1.4 4.4 1.6 18.5 2.8 2.6 13.2 2.7 1.6 4.1 5.8 2.4 11.5 4.6 23.9 1.6 13.1 0.7 4.6 0.3 4.4 -1.8 37.7 0.2

130.3 1.6 4.2 4.2 126.1 1.6 4.4 3.3 18.7 2.9 2.6 13.3 2.7 1.6 4.4 5.9 2.4 11.7 4.7 23.9 1.3 13.1 1.3 4.6 0.3 4.4 -2 37.8 0.4

130.8 1.8 4.2 4.3 126.6 1.7 4.5 5.1 18.8 2.8 2.7 13.3 2.7 1.6 4 5.9 2 11.9 5.5 23.9 1 13.2 1.3 4.6 0.5 4.3 -1.6 37.9 0.6

131.5 1.9 4.3 4 127.3 1.9 4.6 6.1 18.9 2.7 2.7 13.4 2.7 1.6 3.3 5.9 1.7 12.1 6.8 24 1 13.2 1.1 4.6 0.6 4.3 -1.3 38 0.8

132.2 2 4.3 3.6 127.9 1.9 4.7 6.9 19 2.5 2.7 13.5 2.8 1.6 2.9 5.9 1.5 12.3 7.3 24.1 0.9 13.2 0.8 4.6 0.5 4.3 -1.2 38.1 1

132.8 1.9 4.3 3.2 128.4 1.9 4.7 7.5 19.1 2.2 2.7 13.5 2.8 1.6 2.5 5.9 1.4 12.5 7.4 24.1 0.7 13.2 0.7 4.6 0.2 4.3 -1 38.2 1.1

7725.3 261.5 0.2 140.2 1.5 7.9 479 307 172

7739.6 261.6 0.2 139.6 0.1 8 481 322 159

7765.2 261.7 0.2 139.1 -1.2 7.8 525 358 167

7790.3 261.9 0.2 138.5 -1.6 7.7 571 406 164

7824.2 262.1 0.3 138 -1.6 7.7 626 463 162

7879 262.3 0.2 137.5 -1.5 7.5 684 520 164

7924.1 262.4 0.3 137.1 -1.5 7.4 782 617 165

7976.6 262.8 0.3 136.9 -1.2 7.2 881 702 178

8034.2 263.1 0.4 136.7 -0.9 7 999 799 200

8096.1 263.5 0.5 136.4 -0.8 6.8 1051 835 216

8140.9 263.9 0.6 136.6 -0.3 6.6 1103 862 241

8201.2 264.4 0.6 136.8 0 6.4 1180 913 267

8258.7 264.9 0.7 137 0.2 6.2 1229 939 290

8312.7 265.5 0.8 137.2 0.5 6 1262 944 318

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

37

Gai n e s vi l l e

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

October 2010 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

6.3 3.4 3.8 2.5 6 1.3 26.1 24.7 29.9 1.7

7.1 13 4.3 2.8 6.6 10.1 29.1 26.9 33.4 11.8

7.7 8.2 4.6 3.1 6.9 5.1 31 27.8 35.2 5.2

8.3 7.9 4.9 3.4 7.3 5 32.7 28.6 36.9 5.1

8.7 5 5.1 3.6 7.4 2.2 33.9 28.9 38.1 3

8.9 1.7 5.2 3.7 7.3 -1.5 34.3 28.2 38.6 1.5

8.9 0.2 5.2 3.7 7.3 0 34.1 28 40.1 4

9.2 3.3 5.3 3.9 7.5 3.2 35.1 28.9 41.3 2.9

9.4 2.4 5.4 4 7.8 2.8 35.9 29.6 42.4 2.7

9.8 3.9 5.6 4.1 7.9 2.4 37.2 30.2 43.4 2.3

10.2 4.5 5.9 4.3 8.2 2.8 38.6 30.8 44.5 2.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

38

126.4 1.1 4.7 -5.3 121.6 1.3 5.2 1.5 18.1 1.1 2.5 13.1 2.5 2 -1.3 6.2 -6.4 9.4 4.8 20.8 2.3 12 -0.5 4.5 5.4 3.3 3.6 40 1.6

128.6 1.8 4.7 -1.8 123.9 1.9 5.8 11.7 18.2 0.4 2.6 13.2 2.4 2.1 6.1 6.2 -0.7 10.3 9.8 21.5 2.9 12.9 7.5 4.7 3.3 3.4 3.7 38.8 -2.8

130.2 1.2 4.6 -0.2 125.5 1.3 6.2 6.3 18.9 3.5 2.7 13.8 2.4 2 -5.8 6.2 1 10.9 6.1 21.9 2.1 13.7 5.9 4.5 -3 3.7 5.9 37.6 -3.3

132.3 1.6 5.2 12.2 127.1 1.2 6.5 5.2 19.5 3.3 2.7 14.1 2.6 2 -2.9 6.5 4 11.1 1.4 21.9 0.1 13.4 -2.1 4.7 2.6 3.7 2.1 37.9 0.9

134.2 1.4 5.3 2.2 128.8 1.4 6.5 0.9 20.2 4 2.8 14.9 2.6 2 2.6 6.4 -0.5 10.6 -4.4 21.8 -0.5 14 4.1 4.8 3.7 3.8 3.1 38.6 1.8

133.5 -0.5 5.1 -4.7 128.4 -0.3 5.7 -13.2 19.7 -2.8 2.8 14.2 2.7 1.9 -7 6.2 -3.3 10.7 1.8 22.4 2.9 14.5 3.7 4.8 -0.5 4 5.2 38.5 -0.3

127.8 -4.3 4.2 -17.4 123.6 -3.8 4.7 -17.1 18.3 -6.9 2.6 13.3 2.5 1.6 -13.3 5.9 -5.3 10.4 -3.1 22.5 0.4 13.5 -7.1 4.6 -5.3 4.3 5.3 37.8 -1.7

127.9 0.1 3.9 -7.4 124 0.4 4.5 -4.3 18 -1.5 2.5 13.1 2.5 1.5 -7.1 5.8 -2 10.6 2 23.1 2.7 13.2 -2.2 4.6 0.3 4.6 9 38.1 0.8

127.8 -0.1 4 2.1 123.8 -0.2 4.3 -4.4 18 -0.2 2.5 12.9 2.5 1.5 0.9 5.7 -1.4 10.9 2.9 23.5 1.4 13 -1.1 4.6 1 4.5 -3.8 37.8 -0.9

129.4 1.3 4.1 4 125.3 1.2 4.3 0.9 18.5 2.4 2.6 13.2 2.7 1.6 3.8 5.8 2.1 11.4 4.7 23.8 1.6 13.1 0.3 4.6 0.2 4.4 -1.7 37.7 -0.1

131.8 1.9 4.3 3.8 127.5 1.8 4.6 6.4 18.9 2.6 2.7 13.4 2.8 1.6 3.1 5.9 1.6 12.2 6.8 24 0.9 13.2 1 4.6 0.4 4.3 -1.3 38 0.8

6608 241.7 1.1 126 0.8 3.7 1706 1260 446

6892.7 244.6 1.2 126.5 0.4 3.4 1839 1377 462

7208.9 248.9 1.7 130 2.7 2.9 2227 1455 772

7463 254 2.1 132.3 1.7 2.7 1895 1155 739

7580.5 257.3 1.3 136 2.8 3 1377 763 614

7678.7 259.3 0.8 138.9 2.2 4.3 1064 516 548

7485 260.8 0.5 138.5 -0.3 7.2 483 362 121

7707.9 261.4 0.2 140.3 1.3 8.2 543 406 137

7814.7 262 0.2 138.3 -1.4 7.7 601 437 165

8007.7 263 0.4 136.8 -1.1 7.1 928 738 190

8228.4 264.7 0.6 136.9 0.1 6.3 1193 914 279

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

J ac k s o n vi l l e

Profiles The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport.

Quick Facts:

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Jacksonville MSA is expected to see strong growth in most of the economic indicators, relative to the state. Personal income will see an average growth rate of 4.1 percent, while the per capita income level will be one of the highest in the state at 33.5. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.7 percent, the highest in the state. Average annual wage is expected to be among the state’s highest, at a level of 48.3.

Population growth will be moderate at an average annual rate of 1.0 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 49,085.73 (Mill).

Employment growth is expected to be 1.3 percent annually. Unemployment will average 10.4 percent in the MSA. The fastest growing sector in the Jacksonville MSA will be Professional & Business Services, which will see an average annual growth rate of 3.9 percent. Following that sector is the Education and Health Services sector, with an annual growth rate of 2.5 percent, and then Trade, Transportation and Utilities with a 2.1 percent growth rate. The Federal Government sector is the will experience a decline, with an annual growth rate of -2.7 percent.

The Financial and Construction and Mining sectors will experience a decline of -0.5 percent and -1.2, respectively.

• Metro population estimate of 1,367,692 as of 2009 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • Baker County population estimate of 26,336 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Clay County population estimate of 186,756 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Duval County population estimate of 857,040 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Nassau County population estimate of 70,576 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • St. Johns County population estimate of 187,436 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 690,752 in September 2010 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 11.5% as of September 2010, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 79,444 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database)

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s

Top Area Employers:

St. Johns River dredging project completed

• • • •

Naval Air Station Jacksonville – 25,245 employees Duval County Public Schools – 14,489 employees Naval Station Mayport – 10,000 employees City of Jacksonville Municipal Government – 8,828 employees • Baptist Health – 8,100 employees • Blue Cross & Blue Shield of Florida – 7,000 employees • Mayo Clinic – 5,000 employees • Citibank – 4,600 employees • CSX – 4,400 employees • Bank of America – 4,000 employees Source: The Cornerstone Regional Development Partnership

• The $50 million project, funded by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, allows the port to stay competitive in the industry. The harbor’s new uniform depth of 40 feet allows fully loaded ships to use the port.

• Future possible improvements include the deepening of the shipping channel to accommodate larger cargo ships and work to eliminate heavy tidal waves that limit the movements of ships at certain hours.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

39

J ac k s o n vi l l e

• According to the release by the Jacksonville Port Authority, JaxPort supports 65,000 jobs across the region.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, July 7, 2010 UNF named among top military-friendly schools • In a nationwide ranking by G.I. Jobs magazine, the University of North Florida was ranked among the top 15 percent of schools that are working to embrace veterans in their role as students.

• The ranking is based on recruitment and retainment efforts that target military and veterans, results of recruitment, and academic accreditation.

• UNF received a grant for $200,000 from the Florida Braive Fund which was used to set up the military and veterans resource center on campus. The university also offers the Army Reserve Officer Training Corps that allows students to get Army training.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, August 16, 2010 JCCI relaunches annual study with look at local job creation • With backing from WorkSource, the Jacksonville Community Council, Inc. is embarking on a study about job creation in Northeast Florida titled, “Recession, Recovery and Beyond.”

• The study will focus on labor markets and economic competitiveness to find the way to job creation in the post-recession era.

• JCCI produced annual studies for the region for 35 years before its 2009 project was forced to end due to lack of funding.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, August 27, 2010

40

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

About $28 million in federal education funds headed to First Coast • The funds are part of the federal “Race to the Top” program that motivates schools to try innovative education reforms.

• Duval County Public Schools will receive $5.5 million to $6 million per year for four years. The amount, however, is $15 million per year below the costs of the program.

• Clay, Nassau and St. Johns counties will also receive funds below the cost for the initiative.

Baker County decided not to participate due to the unfunded costs they would incur to meet requirements.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, September 8, 2010 Blue Cross top Florida health insurer with $4B from premiums • Jacksonville-based Blue Cross & Blue Shield of Florida covers 1.1 million people and had $4 billion in earnings from direct premiums, according to a report by the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation.

• Blue Cross has a 27 percent market share in Florida, covering 1.1 million people.

• UnitedHealth Group placed second with $2.2 billion in earnings while covering 1.5 million people and having a 15.4 percent market share.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, September 10, 2010

J ac k s o n vi l l e Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining and Logging, construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.8

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

55000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

45000.0 40000.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

620.0 600.0 580.0 560.0 540.0 520.0 500.0

1.2

Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product

35000.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Jacksonville Payroll Employment

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Jacksonville Real Personal Income

Jacksonville Payroll Employment 640.0

1

50000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

41

J ac k s o n vi l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

October 2010 Forecast

2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

52.7 2.6 27.8 24.9 43.9 4.4 39.2 32.7 46.4 2

53 2.5 27.9 25.1 44.1 4.6 39.4 32.7 46.8 2.7

53.4 2.3 28.2 25.3 44.2 4.5 39.6 32.7 47.2 2.9

53.8 2.4 28.4 25.4 44.4 4.3 39.8 32.8 47.5 3.4

54.4 3.2 28.8 25.6 44.7 1.8 40.1 33 47.9 3.3

55 3.8 29.2 25.9 45.1 2.4 40.5 33.2 48.2 3.1

55.8 4.4 29.6 26.2 45.5 3 41 33.4 48.5 2.8

56.6 5 29.9 26.6 46 3.6 41.4 33.7 48.8 2.7

57.4 5.5 30.4 27 46.5 4 42 34 49.1 2.6

58.3 5.9 30.8 27.4 47.1 4.3 42.5 34.3 49.5 2.7

59 5.9 31.3 27.7 47.5 4.3 42.9 34.5 49.9 2.8

60 6.1 31.8 28.1 48 4.4 43.4 34.8 50.2 2.9

60.9 6.1 32.3 28.6 48.6 4.4 44 35.1 50.6 3

61.8 6.1 32.8 29 49.1 4.4 44.5 35.3 51 3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

42

577.9 -0.4 27.1 -3.3 550.8 -0.3 29.6 -5.8 128.9 2.4 26.2 71.8 30.6 9.9 -3.4 52.5 -4.3 81.4 -0.3 86.1 2.9 63.5 -1.2 23.8 -0.3 16.8 -4.4 58.3 -1

576.9 -0.5 27.2 -1.2 549.7 -0.5 29.1 -4.4 128.9 1.8 26.2 71.8 30.6 9.9 -3.3 51.7 -5.2 81.5 -0.5 86.7 2.7 63.5 -0.6 23.8 -0.6 16.3 -6.8 58.2 -0.8

576.4 -0.7 27.3 0.3 549.1 -0.8 28.6 -3.8 128.8 0.6 26.2 71.6 30.8 10 -2.2 51.8 -3.9 81.5 -1 87 2.6 63 -2.1 23.9 0.1 16.2 -7.8 58.2 -0.6

577.8 -0.8 27.6 1.1 550.2 -0.9 28.3 -6.2 129 0.2 26.5 71.2 31.1 10.1 0.7 51.9 -2.3 82.2 0 87.4 2.2 62.9 -2 24 0.1 16.1 -13.9 58.2 -0.6

580.6 0.5 27.8 2.4 552.8 0.4 28.3 -4.4 130 0.8 26.8 71.2 31.6 10.2 2.5 52.1 -0.8 83.4 2.4 88 2.3 62.8 -1.1 24 1 16.1 -4 58 -0.6

584.8 1.4 28 2.9 556.8 1.3 28.2 -2.9 131.2 1.8 27.2 71.7 32 10.2 2.8 52.3 1.2 85.2 4.5 88.7 2.3 62.7 -1.2 24.1 1 16.1 -1.2 58 -0.3

589.1 2.2 28.3 3.3 560.9 2.1 28.4 -0.9 132.5 2.9 27.5 72.2 32.5 10.4 3.3 52.7 1.6 86.4 6.1 89.3 2.6 63 -0.1 24.1 0.7 16 -1.3 58.1 -0.1

593.2 2.7 28.5 3.5 564.6 2.6 28.7 1.2 133.8 3.7 27.7 72.9 32.9 10.5 3.5 53 2.2 87.2 6 89.9 2.9 63.4 0.7 24.1 0.6 15.9 -1.4 58.2 0

598 3 28.8 3.5 569.2 3 29 2.5 134.9 3.8 27.9 73.3 33.3 10.5 3.5 53.4 2.6 88.8 6.4 90.5 2.8 63.7 1.4 24.2 0.7 15.9 -1.7 58.3 0.6

603.1 3.1 29 3.5 574.1 3.1 29.5 4.6 136.1 3.8 28.2 73.8 33.7 10.6 3.5 53.7 2.7 90.5 6.3 91.1 2.7 64 2.1 24.2 0.7 15.8 -1.9 58.5 0.8

608 3.2 29.2 3.4 578.8 3.2 30.1 6.1 137.2 3.5 28.5 74.2 34.1 10.6 2.9 54 2.4 92.4 6.9 91.4 2.3 64.4 2.3 24.3 0.7 15.8 -1.6 58.7 1

613.5 3.4 29.4 3.2 584 3.4 30.7 7.3 138.3 3.3 28.8 74.7 34.5 10.7 2.3 54.2 2.2 94.5 8.4 92 2.3 64.7 2.1 24.3 0.8 15.7 -1.2 58.9 1.2

618.8 3.5 29.6 2.9 589.2 3.5 31.4 8.2 139.3 3.2 29 75.2 34.8 10.7 1.9 54.5 2 96.7 9 92.5 2.2 64.9 2 24.4 0.8 15.7 -1.1 59.1 1.3

623.4 3.4 29.7 2.6 593.7 3.4 32.1 8.7 140 2.9 29.2 75.5 35.1 10.7 1.6 54.8 1.9 98.5 8.9 92.9 2 65.2 1.8 24.4 0.6 15.7 -0.9 59.4 1.5

47124 1344 1 688.1 0.8 11.3 3877 3482 396

47297.7 1346.9 0.9 688.4 0 11.4 4053 3599 454

47542.2 1349.7 0.9 689.3 -0.9 11.3 4420 3855 565

47780.3 1352.4 0.9 689.8 -0.2 11.1 5068 4334 735

48085.2 1355.3 0.8 690.9 0.4 11 5796 4890 907

48533.9 1358.3 0.8 692.2 0.6 10.7 6618 5546 1072

48978.0 1361.6 0.9 693.1 0.6 10.5 7491 6210 1281

49408.0 1364.8 0.9 694.6 0.7 10.2 8384 6915 1469

49883.6 1368.3 1 696.7 0.8 9.8 9371 7735 1636

50389.2 1372.1 1 697.9 0.8 9.5 9853 8094 1759

50804.1 1376.4 1.1 699.7 0.9 9.2 10240 8340 1900

51291.7 1380.9 1.2 701.3 1 8.9 10870 8799 2071

51777.4 1385.9 1.3 703.2 0.9 8.6 11290 9056 2234

52245.6 1391 1.4 706 1.2 8.4 11555 9129 2426

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

J ac k s o n vi l l e

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

October 2010 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

38.5 6.1 22.4 16.2 36.6 4 32.2 30.5 37.9 6.4

41.8 8.5 23.9 17.9 38.7 5.8 34.1 31.6 39.6 4.2

45.6 9 25.6 20 41 5.9 36.4 32.7 40.8 3.2

50.3 10.2 27.9 22.3 43.9 7.2 39.2 34.3 43.1 5.5

52.3 4 29 23.3 44.5 1.2 40.1 34.1 44.2 2.7

52.7 0.8 28.7 24 43.4 -2.4 40 32.9 44.7 1.1

51.5 -2.2 27.5 24.1 42.4 -2.4 38.8 31.9 45.3 1.4

52.6 2.1 27.8 24.9 43.2 2 39.2 32.2 46.2 2

54.2 2.9 28.6 25.5 44.6 3.2 40 33 47.7 3.2

57 5.2 30.2 26.8 46.3 3.7 41.7 33.9 49 2.7

60.4 6 32.1 28.4 48.3 4.4 43.7 34.9 50.4 2.9

586 -5.7 28.7 -10.2 557.4 -5.5 32.9 -23.4 127.4 -6.6 26.8 70.1 30.4 10.4 1.4 55.5 -7.1 82.3 -6.5 83.6 2.3 64.9 -3.5 24 -9.8 17.5 2.4 58.9 -1.1

579.5 -1.1 27.2 -5.1 552.3 -0.9 29.7 -10 128.7 1 26.3 71.7 30.5 10 -3.3 52.8 -4.9 81.8 -0.5 85.8 2.6 63.9 -1.6 23.9 -0.5 17.4 -1.1 58.4 -0.8

579.9 0.1 27.7 1.7 552.2 0 28.4 -4.3 129.7 0.8 26.7 71.4 31.4 10.1 0.9 52 -1.5 83.1 1.5 87.8 2.3 62.9 -1.6 24 0.5 16.1 -7 58.1 -0.5

595.8 2.7 28.6 3.5 567.2 2.7 28.9 1.8 134.3 3.5 27.8 73.1 33.1 10.5 3.4 53.2 2.3 88.2 6.2 90.2 2.7 63.5 1 24.2 0.7 15.9 -1.6 58.3 0.3

615.9 3.4 29.5 3 586.4 3.4 31.1 7.6 138.7 3.2 28.9 74.9 34.6 10.7 2.2 54.3 2.1 95.5 8.3 92.2 2.2 64.8 2 24.3 0.8 15.7 -1.2 59 1.3

46002.7 47163.1 1329.7 1342.4 0.9 1 686.3 690.9 -0.1 0.7 10.1 11.6 4489 4242 3460 3937 1028 305

47985.4 1353.9 0.9 690.6 -0.1 11 5476 4656 819

49664.7 1366.7 0.9 695.6 0.7 10 8775 7238 1536

51529.7 1383.5 1.2 702.5 1 8.8 10989 8831 2158

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

563.2 0.5 33.3 -3.1 529.9 0.7 36.6 7.4 125 0.4 26.8 68.8 29.4 12.4 -6.1 57.6 -0.1 82.8 -2.9 64.7 1.9 53.3 1.6 25.7 3 18 1.6 53.6 1.7

578.5 2.7 33.3 -0.3 545.2 2.9 40.9 11.5 128.1 2.5 26.9 71.1 30.1 11.6 -6.4 58.4 1.4 82.5 -0.4 67.9 5 56.3 5.5 26.4 2.6 17.8 -1.3 55.4 3.3

603.7 4.4 33.5 0.8 570.1 4.6 45.4 11 132.7 3.6 27.8 73.9 31.1 11.9 2.4 59.3 1.4 88.1 6.7 71.3 4.9 60.4 7.3 26.8 1.5 17.4 -2.2 57.1 3

624.7 3.5 33.3 -0.8 591.4 3.7 50.1 10.3 136.9 3.1 29.9 74.8 32.2 11.1 -6.8 59.8 0.9 95.4 8.3 74.5 4.5 62.1 2.9 27.6 3.1 16.9 -2.6 57 0

633.7 1.4 32.5 -2.2 601.2 1.7 49.2 -1.6 139.2 1.7 30.2 76.5 32.5 10.2 -8.5 60.1 0.5 94.3 -1.2 77.9 4.6 65.9 6.1 28.2 2.3 17 0.6 59.1 3.7

621.4 -1.9 31.9 -1.9 589.5 -1.9 43 -12.6 136.3 -2.1 28.6 75.5 32.3 10.2 0.7 59.7 -0.7 88 -6.6 81.7 4.9 67.3 2.1 26.6 -5.9 17.1 0.6 59.5 0.6

40348.4 1198.5 2 599.4 0.3 5 15041 12820 2221

42153.5 1225.8 2.3 607.5 1.3 4.6 17882 13851 4030

45040 1252.6 2.2 630.4 3.8 3.7 23862 18638 5225

47215.7 1281.3 2.3 651.5 3.3 3.3 16770 12263 4506

47500.5 1302.6 1.7 671.1 3 3.8 10516 7488 3028

47244 1317.7 1.2 686.6 2.3 5.8 7074 5164 1911

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

43

La k e l a n d

P r o fi l e s The Lakeland MSA is comprised only of Polk County. It is located in the western center of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus.

It is home to a few attractions, including Cypress Gardens and Fantasy of Flight. Also, the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians conduct spring training in Lakeland and Winter Haven, respectively.

Quick Facts:

• Population estimate of 583,403 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• A civilian labor force of 276,914 in September 2010 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 13.3% as of September 2010, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 36,878 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 6,644 employees • Lakeland Regional Medical Center – 4,540 employees • City of Lakeland – 2,600 employees • GEICO – 1,850 employees

• Watson Clinic – 1,500 employees • GC Services – 1,000 employees

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Lakeland MSA will show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 4.0 percent annually, while the per capita income level will be at 27.5, one of the lowest in the state. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.4 percent, tied for lowest in the state, and the average annual wage level is expected to be at 41.6, also one of the lowest in the state. Population growth is expected to be one of the highest in the state, averaging 1.4 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 14,999.30 (Mill).

Employment growth is expected to be 1.1 percent annually. The unemployment rate for the metro will average 12.1 percent, the second highest in the state.

The Federal Government sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging a 8.6 percent average annual growth rate. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector averaging a growth rate of 2.6 percent a year and the Education and Health Services sector at 2.4 percent.

The Financial and Construction and Mining sectors are the only sectors that will experience a decline, with annual growth rate of -0.3 percent and -0.9 percent, respectively.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Polk School Grades Earn County a B

• Saddle Creek Corporation – 680 employees

• The Florida Department of Education rated Polk County School District as a B, the same grade as 2009, based on annual grades for elementary and middle schools.

Source: Lakeland Economic Development Council

• School grades are based on test scores for the Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test only.

• Rooms To Go – 900 employees

• FedEx National LTL – 850 employees • Summit Consulting – 654 employees

• The release of FCAT scores was delayed due to concerns about their accuracy. Audits have been made to ease the concerns but county officials will be analyzing the data for each school.

Schools have 30 days to appeal a grade after its release.

Source: Lakeland Ledger, August 6, 2010

44

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

La k e l a n d

Winter Haven Is Moving Ahead With Capital Projects Costing $24.5 Million • Capital improvements projects totaling $24.5 million are planned for the 2010-2011 fiscal year in the city of Winter Haven.

• According to city officials, only those projects with a funding source, such as grants, impact fees or previously issued bonds, will become a reality due to a tight budget.

• Larger projects include a $3.2 million downtown parking garage; a water, wastewater and reuse main costing $2.1 million; and a Chain of Lakes Trail Avenue bridge.

Source: Lakeland Ledger, August 4, 2010 Lakeland Housing Agency Buying Up Bargain Houses • The housing agency plans to pay between $120,000 and $140,000 to acquire 12 homes in the area next to Lakeland square mall that have been valued from $150,000 to $200,000 in the past.

• The agency would give the houses a makeover and to sell them to people earning less than 80 percent of the area’s median annual income.

• Since some of the money for this initiative will come from the HOPE VI program, low-income housing advocates argue that this option does not address the need for housing for the poorest families since they are not likely to qualify for these homes.

Proposed County Budget Comes in At $1.3 Bil. • At $1.3 billion, the tentative budget for next year represents a drop from this year’s $1.6 billion budget.

• The tentative budget includes no change in the property tax rate and fire fees, and a drop in garbage fees.

• Cost-cutting measures such as layoffs, consolidation of county operations and cuts to some social welfare programs account for the decrease in the budget.

Source: Lakeland Ledger, September 9, 2010 Polk City Opts Not to Refinance Debt • The City Council voted against a plan to refinance the city’s $10 million debt and against the initiative to develop a plan for $10 million in new debt in the next decade.

• The former Public Works Director for the city had listed $10 million in public works projects for the next ten years but only two of those have been deemed necessary by the new interim Public Works Director.

• The city’s debt includes $530,000 in unpaid impact fees and a $1 million loan for property purchased in 2008, when the city took over the water and sewer systems from the county.

Source: Lakeland Ledger, September 15, 2010

Source: Lakeland Ledger, August 29, 2010

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

45

La k e l a n d Lakeland MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining and Logging, construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.5

Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

16000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

13000.0 12000.0 11000.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

10000.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Lakeland Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

8.0% 6.0%

200.0

4.0%

190.0

2.0%

180.0

0.0%

170.0

46

2.5

14000.0

210.0

160.0

2

Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product

Lakeland Payroll Employment 220.0

1.5

15000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

1

-2.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Lakeland Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

-4.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income

La k e l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL

October 2010 Forecast

2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

19.2 3.4 7.9 11.3 16 5.2 32.6 27.1 40.2 2.6

19.4 3.1 7.9 11.4 16.1 5.3 32.7 27.1 40.5 2.5

19.5 3.2 8 11.5 16.1 5.4 32.8 27.2 40.8 2.4

19.7 2.9 8.1 11.6 16.2 4.9 33 27.2 41 2.5

19.8 3.2 8.1 11.7 16.3 1.8 33.2 27.3 41.3 2.5

20.1 3.6 8.2 11.8 16.4 2.2 33.4 27.4 41.5 2.4

20.3 4 8.3 12 16.6 2.7 33.7 27.5 41.7 2.1

20.6 4.7 8.4 12.2 16.7 3.2 34 27.7 41.9 2

20.9 5.1 8.5 12.4 16.9 3.6 34.4 27.9 42.1 1.9

21.1 5.4 8.6 12.5 17.1 3.8 34.7 28 42.3 2

21.4 5.3 8.7 12.6 17.2 3.7 34.9 28 42.6 2.2

21.6 5.2 8.8 12.8 17.3 3.6 35.1 28.1 42.8 2.3

21.9 5.2 9 13 17.5 3.5 35.4 28.3 43.1 2.4

22.2 5.2 9.1 13.2 17.7 3.5 35.7 28.4 43.3 2.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

195.3 0.1 14.1 -3.4 181.2 0.4 10.9 -4 43.5 -2 8.9 23.2 11.2 1.8 -4.8 11.2 -3.7 27.7 -0.8 30.3 5.4 16.4 0.7 8.4 1 2 51.4 29 1.1

195.1 0.5 14.2 -0.6 180.9 0.6 10.6 -3.7 43.5 -0.6 8.8 23.3 11.2 1.8 -3.4 11.1 -3.3 27.9 0 30.5 4.5 16.4 -0.1 8.4 2 1.9 40.5 29 0.5

195 0.8 14.2 0.2 180.8 0.8 10.4 -4.1 43.4 -0.7 8.8 23.2 11.2 1.8 0.2 11.1 -1.5 28 1.5 30.5 3.4 16.3 0.6 8.4 1.3 1.9 43 28.9 0.6

195.5 0.3 14.3 0.9 181.2 0.2 10.3 -5 43.4 -0.3 8.9 23 11.3 1.8 0.6 11.2 -0.9 28.3 2.7 30.7 2.7 16.3 -0.1 8.4 0.3 1.9 -14.1 28.9 -0.1

196.3 0.5 14.4 2 181.9 0.4 10.3 -5.1 43.7 0.4 9 23 11.5 1.8 1.6 11.2 -0.1 28.7 3.4 30.9 1.8 16.2 -1 8.4 0.3 1.9 -5.7 28.8 -0.8

197.4 1.2 14.5 2.4 182.9 1.1 10.3 -3.5 44.1 1.4 9.1 23.1 11.7 1.8 2.2 11.3 1.8 29.1 4.4 31.1 1.9 16.2 -1.1 8.4 0.4 1.9 -1.3 28.8 -0.5

198.4 1.7 14.7 3 183.8 1.6 10.3 -1.4 44.4 2.5 9.2 23.3 11.8 1.9 3 11.3 1.9 29.4 4.7 31.1 2 16.2 -0.3 8.4 0.2 1.9 -1.2 28.8 -0.3

199.6 2.1 14.8 3.5 184.8 2 10.4 0.6 44.9 3.4 9.3 23.5 12 1.9 3.7 11.4 2.1 29.5 4.2 31.3 2 16.3 0.2 8.4 0 1.9 -1.3 28.9 -0.1

201 2.4 14.9 3.7 186 2.3 10.5 1.9 45.2 3.6 9.3 23.6 12.1 1.9 4.2 11.5 2.4 29.9 4.4 31.4 1.8 16.4 0.8 8.4 0.1 1.9 -1.5 28.9 0.4

202.4 2.5 15 3.7 187.4 2.4 10.6 3.7 45.7 3.6 9.5 23.7 12.3 1.9 4.4 11.5 2.5 30.4 4.4 31.5 1.5 16.4 1.4 8.4 0 1.9 -1.7 29 0.6

203.8 2.7 15.2 3.5 188.6 2.6 10.9 5.5 46 3.5 9.5 23.8 12.4 1.9 4 11.6 2 30.9 5.3 31.5 1.3 16.5 1.4 8.4 0.1 1.8 -1.5 29.1 0.8

205.4 2.9 15.3 3.3 190.1 2.9 11.1 6.5 46.4 3.3 9.7 23.9 12.6 2 3.4 11.6 1.8 31.5 6.7 31.7 1.3 16.5 1.2 8.4 0.2 1.8 -1.2 29.2 1

206.9 2.9 15.4 2.9 191.5 2.9 11.3 7.4 46.7 3.2 9.8 24.1 12.7 2 3 11.7 1.6 32.1 7.2 31.8 1.2 16.5 1 8.4 0.1 1.8 -1.1 29.3 1.2

208.1 2.8 15.4 2.5 192.7 2.9 11.5 8 47 2.9 9.8 24.2 12.8 2 2.6 11.7 1.5 32.6 7.2 31.9 1 16.6 0.8 8.4 -0.1 1.8 -0.9 29.4 1.3

14465.0 590.6 1 277.7 1.8 13.1 1343 1243 100

14510.2 592.4 1.1 277.9 0.6 13.2 1469 1376 94

14584.9 594.2 1.2 278 0 13 1745 1620 125

14649.0 595.8 1.2 277.8 0 12.9 2124 1963 161

14730.8 597.6 1.2 277.7 0 12.8 2601 2424 176

14856.9 599.5 1.2 277.6 -0.1 12.6 3086 2906 180

14968.5 601.7 1.3 277.5 -0.2 12.4 3587 3400 187

15093.5 604.1 1.4 277.1 -0.2 12.1 4065 3871 194

15231.1 606.7 1.5 276.6 -0.4 11.7 4595 4374 221

15379.1 609.7 1.7 276 -0.6 11.4 4802 4565 237

15494.3 612.8 1.9 276.1 -0.5 11 4935 4676 259

15638.7 616 2 276.3 -0.3 10.5 5230 4943 287

15777.1 619.3 2.1 276.5 0 10.2 5405 5082 323

15912.1 622.5 2.1 276.9 0.3 9.9 5483 5110 373

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

47

La k e l a n d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

October 2010 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

13.3 6 6.2 7.1 12.7 3.9 26.2 24.8 33.7 4.1

14.8 10.6 6.7 8.1 13.6 7.8 28.2 26.1 34.2 1.6

16.3 10.6 7.4 8.9 14.7 7.4 30.2 27.1 35.6 4.1

17.7 8.2 7.9 9.7 15.4 5.3 31.6 27.6 37.3 4.8

18.6 5.2 8.1 10.5 15.8 2.4 32.4 27.5 37.8 1.5

18.9 1.7 8 10.9 15.6 -1.6 32.6 26.8 38.3 1.4

18.6 -1.3 7.7 10.9 15.3 -1.5 31.9 26.2 39 1.8

19.1 2.7 7.9 11.3 15.7 2.6 32.5 26.7 40.2 2.9

19.8 3.2 8.1 11.7 16.3 3.5 33.1 27.3 41.1 2.5

20.7 4.8 8.5 12.3 16.8 3.3 34.2 27.8 42 2

21.8 5.2 8.9 12.9 17.4 3.6 35.3 28.2 43 2.3

211.7 0.1 17.2 -3.5 194.5 0.4 15.8 -6.5 49 0.2 10.1 26.4 12.5 2.2 -7.8 11.8 2.5 32 -2.6 28 5.1 17.4 2.9 9 -5.3 1.4 1.2 27.9 4.3

208.3 -1.6 16.3 -5.2 191.9 -1.3 13.8 -12.2 47.8 -2.5 9.6 26.1 12.1 2.1 -3.5 12.2 2.8 31.3 -2.4 29.1 4 17.4 -0.5 8.6 -4.1 1.4 0 28.3 1.7

197.2 -5.3 14.8 -9.3 182.4 -5 11.7 -15.8 44.7 -6.4 9.1 24.1 11.6 1.9 -8.4 11.8 -3.3 28.7 -8.2 28.8 -0.9 16.6 -4.5 8.3 -4.2 1.4 -1.3 28.6 1

194.7 -1.3 14.2 -4.5 180.6 -1 10.8 -7.2 43.5 -2.6 8.9 23.4 11.2 1.8 -5.9 11.2 -4.8 27.7 -3.5 30.1 4.2 16.3 -1.4 8.3 0.9 1.9 35.3 28.9 1

196 0.7 14.4 1.4 181.7 0.6 10.3 -4.4 43.6 0.2 9 23.1 11.4 1.8 1.1 11.2 -0.2 28.5 3 30.8 2.4 16.3 -0.4 8.4 0.6 1.9 1.6 28.9 -0.2

200.3 2.2 14.9 3.5 185.5 2.1 10.5 1.2 45 3.3 9.3 23.5 12.1 1.9 3.8 11.4 2.2 29.8 4.4 31.4 1.8 16.3 0.5 8.4 0.1 1.9 -1.4 28.9 0.2

206 2.8 15.3 3 190.7 2.8 11.2 6.9 46.5 3.2 9.7 24 12.6 2 3.2 11.6 1.7 31.8 6.6 31.7 1.2 16.5 1.1 8.4 0.1 1.8 -1.2 29.2 1.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

48

183.7 1 18.1 -1.9 165.6 1.4 12.9 -5.1 42.1 -4.2 9.1 22.5 10.5 2.2 -7.9 11 2 25.4 23.3 22.9 1.7 15 -5.4 7.5 0.9 1.4 -3 25.3 1.6

194.6 5.9 18.2 0.7 176.4 6.5 14.4 11.4 43.9 4.3 9.4 23.5 11 2.2 -1.1 10.9 -1 30.7 20.8 24.1 5.3 15.3 2.2 8 7.6 1.3 -2.4 25.5 1

207.1 6.4 18.3 0.3 188.8 7 16.2 12.6 47.6 8.4 10.3 25.3 12.1 2.3 3 11.1 1.8 33.2 8.2 25.6 6.1 16.5 7.7 9 11.9 1.4 4.4 26 2

211.6 2.2 17.9 -2.2 193.7 2.6 16.9 4.1 48.9 2.8 10.4 26.1 12.5 2.3 2.9 11.6 4.1 32.9 -0.9 26.6 4.2 17 2.7 9.5 5.5 1.4 -0.6 26.7 2.6

11656.1 12565.3 13791.8 14424.1 14416.8 509.9 523.5 541.1 559.3 573.8 2 2.7 3.4 3.4 2.6 239.7 247.4 256.1 261.6 266.7 0.7 3.2 3.5 2.2 1.9 5.5 4.9 4 3.6 4.4 6783 9082 12853 9538 4392 6165 8288 11707 8288 4007 618 794 1146 1250 385

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

14420 14111.8 14418.1 14705.4 15168.1 15705.6 580.4 584.1 589.8 596.8 605.6 617.7 1.2 0.6 1 1.2 1.5 2 272.9 275.5 277.9 277.8 276.8 276.4 2.3 0.9 0.9 0 -0.4 -0.1 6.6 11.4 13.3 12.8 11.9 10.4 3161 1219 1446 2389 4262 5263 2359 1217 1370 2228 4052 4953 802 2 75 160 210 310

Mia m i – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – Mia m i B each

P r o fi l e s The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Miami Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, this area is home to many sports teams, such as the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins, and the Florida Panthers. Other major businesses also reside in this metro, including the Miami Seaquarium, the University of Miami, and Florida International University.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro area population estimate of 5,547,051 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,500,625 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Broward County population estimate of 1,766,476 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,279,950 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 2,901,358 in September 2010 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• An unemployment rate of 12.1% as of September 2010, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 349,978 unemployed people for the metro area.

(Florida Research and Economic Database) TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Miami-Dade County Public Schools – 54,861 employees • Federal Government – 36,600 employees • Florida State Government – 33,500 employees • Miami-Dade County – 32,000 employees • University of Miami – 12,765 employees • Publix Super Markets – 11,760 employees • Baptist Health South Florida – 11,615 employees • Jackson Health System – 10,500 employees • American Airlines – 9,000 employees • Miami-Dade College – 6,500 employees Sources: The Beacon Council, Agency for Workforce Innovation, and Enterprise Florida

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Miami Beach area is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 3.5 percent annually, and the per capita income level, at 35.3, is the second highest in Florida. Average annual wage growth will be third highest in Florida at 2.6 percent. The average annual wage level is expected to be 51.4, the highest in the state. Miami is expected to average a population growth of 0.9 percent each year.

The area has the highest Gross Metro Product in the state, at a level of 217,699.15 (Mill).

Employment is expected to grow at an average rate of 1.0 percent each year, while unemployment is expected to be 10.6 percent.

Miami’s fastest growing sector is expected to be the Professional and Business Services sector at 3.7 percent annually, followed by EducationHealth Services at 1.8 percent each year and Trade, Transportation and Utilities at 1.5 percent. The Other Services, Leisure, Information, State and Local Government, Financial, Federal Government, Construction and Mining sectors are all expected to decline with annual growth rates of -0.1, -0.1, -0.1, -0.4, -1.1, -1.5, and -1.7 percent respectively.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s S. Fla. visitors keep coming • Occupancy rates in hotels in Palm Beach County have risen to 63% from 54.1 % in 2009. In Miami-Dade County, the rates rose from 64.2% to 67.2% and in Broward County they rose from 61.7% to 63.3%.

• Average daily room rates were not as consistent as occupancy rates across the three counties.

• This indicates occupancy rates continue to grow despite the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, and tend to follow rates across the United States.

Source: South Florida Business Journal, July 2, 2010

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

49

Mia m i – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – Mia m i B each

S. Fla. bank repossessions up 83% • Bank repossessions of property during the first half of 2010 went up 83% from the first half of 2009.

• Housing prices in Miami have continued to fall despite a national trend toward increasing home prices.

• Miami-Dade County had the highest increase in repossessions, followed by Palm Beach County and distantly by Broward County.

Source: South Florida Business Journal, July 13, 2010 FAU trustees approve stadium financing plan • FAU has received approval from its board of trustees for a new 30,000 seat stadium on its Boca Raton campus.

• The stadium will cost $63.5 million, with $44.6 million to be financed through Regions Bank via Build America Bonds. The government will pay part of the interest costs.

• Construction of the stadium would create about 1,000 jobs.

Source: South Florida Business Journal, July 22, 2010

Miami charity gets $5M education grant • The U.S. Department of Education granted $5 million to Take Stock in Children, a Miami based educational charity that operates in three counties.

• The money will be used to expand its educational programs, which boast an impressive 92% high school graduation rate and 81% enrollment rate in colleges.

• Take Stock in Children is a mentoring program and works with 400 students in Broward County.

Source: South Florida Business Journal, August 26, 2010 Miami-Dade to offer $1.5M in energy grants • $1.5 million in Renovation for Energy Efficiency Loans (REEL) are now available to businesses making capital improvements that will result in lower energy consumption.

• The loans are available in amounts between $50,000 and $100,000 and will be funded by money from the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Block Grant, part of the federal stimulus package.

• The loans are available to any business in MiamiDade County.

Source: South Florida Business Journal, September 7, 2010

50

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

Mia m i – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – Mia m i B each Miami - Fort Lauderdale - Miami Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining and Logging, construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

1.2

1.4

1.6

240000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

200000.0 180000.0 160000.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

140000.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Miami Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

2400.0

4.0%

2300.0

2.0%

2200.0

0.0%

2100.0

-2.0%

2000.0 1900.0

1

Miami Real Gross Metro Product

Miami Payroll Employment 2500.0

0.8

220000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

-4.0% 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Miami Payroll Employment

-6.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

51

Mia m i – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – Mia m i B each

Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL October 2010 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2010Q3

2010Q4

2011Q1

2011Q2

2011Q3

2011Q4

2012Q1

2012Q2

2012Q3

2012Q4

2013Q1

2013Q2

2013Q3

2013Q4

233.8 2.4 107.9 125.8 194.9 4.2 41.7 34.7 49.4 2.3

235 2.3 108.6 126.4 195.3 4.5 41.8 34.7 49.8 2.6

236.4 2.2 109.4 126.9 195.5 4.4 41.9 34.7 50.2 2.7

237.8 2 110.3 127.5 196.2 4 42.1 34.7 50.6 3.1

239.7 2.5 111.5 128.3 197.1 1.1 42.4 34.8 50.9 3

242 3 112.8 129.3 198.4 1.6 42.7 35 51.2 2.8

244.8 3.6 114.2 130.6 199.8 2.2 43.1 35.2 51.5 2.6

247.8 4.2 115.5 132.3 201.6 2.8 43.5 35.4 51.8 2.5

251.1 4.7 116.9 134.1 203.5 3.2 44 35.7 52.1 2.4

254.4 5.1 118.5 135.9 205.4 3.6 44.5 36 52.4 2.5

257.3 5.1 120.3 137 206.9 3.5 44.9 36.1 52.9 2.6

260.9 5.3 122 138.9 209 3.6 45.5 36.4 53.2 2.8

264.6 5.4 123.8 140.8 211 3.7 46 36.7 53.6 2.9

268.2 5.4 125.4 142.8 213.1 3.7 46.5 37 54 2.9

2165.9 -0.1 76.5 1.3 2089.4 -0.2 85.8 -4.9 503.5 0.5 134 279.6 89.1 41.5 -1 142.8 -4.1 326.5 0.7 340.5 1.7 241.8 0.2 92.6 0.9 33.1 -2.6 281.2 -1.4

2169.3 -0.5 76.9 1.1 2092.4 -0.5 84.9 -5.8 504.1 0.2 135.3 277.8 89.9 42 1.5 142.8 -2.2 329.4 0.7 341.5 1.7 241.3 -0.5 92.5 0 33 -18.8 280.9 -1.2

2176.9 0.2 77.4 1.6 2099.5 0.2 84.9 -4.6 507.2 0.5 137 277.6 91 42.3 3.4 143 -1.1 333.7 2.5 342.9 1.7 240.6 -1.2 92.5 0.3 33 -6 279.5 -1.1

2189.9 1 78 2.1 2111.9 1 84.7 -3 511.3 1.3 138.5 279.4 92.1 42.5 3.5 143.5 0.7 339.9 4.2 344.9 1.5 240.1 -1.4 92.6 0.3 32.9 -1.1 279.4 -0.8

2203.3 1.7 78.6 2.7 2124.7 1.7 85.1 -0.8 515.8 2.4 139.9 281.2 93.5 43.2 3.9 144.2 1 344.2 5.4 346.4 1.7 240.9 -0.4 92.7 0.2 32.7 -1.4 279.5 -0.6

2215.6 2.1 79.3 3 2136.3 2.1 86.2 1.5 520.1 3.2 141.1 283.3 94.6 43.6 3.9 144.9 1.5 346.7 5.2 348.2 2 242.1 0.3 92.6 0.1 32.5 -1.5 279.6 -0.5

2230.4 2.5 79.9 3.2 2150.5 2.4 87.5 3.1 523.7 3.3 142.1 284.8 95.7 43.8 3.7 145.7 1.9 352 5.5 349.9 2.1 242.9 0.9 92.7 0.3 32.3 -2 279.9 0.1

2246.7 2.6 80.5 3.2 2166.3 2.6 89.2 5.3 527.7 3.2 143.5 286.2 96.7 44 3.5 146.4 2 358 5.3 351.7 2 243.8 1.6 92.9 0.2 32.3 -2 280.3 0.3

2262.1 2.7 81 3.1 2181.1 2.7 91.1 7.1 531 3 144.8 287.2 97.7 44.3 2.7 146.7 1.7 364.5 5.9 352.4 1.7 244.9 1.7 93.1 0.4 32.2 -1.6 280.9 0.5

2279.3 2.9 81.6 2.9 2197.7 2.9 93.4 8.3 534.2 2.7 145.8 288.6 98.6 44.5 2 146.9 1.4 372.1 7.4 354.3 1.8 245.6 1.5 93.1 0.5 32.1 -1.2 281.5 0.7

2295.9 2.9 81.9 2.6 2214 3 95.5 9.2 537.2 2.6 146.8 289.9 99.6 44.5 1.6 147.5 1.2 380 7.9 355.9 1.7 246 1.3 93.2 0.5 32 -1.1 282.2 0.8

2309.9 2.8 82.2 2.2 2227.6 2.8 97.8 9.7 539.2 2.2 147.4 290.7 100.4 44.5 1.2 148 1.1 386.5 8 357 1.5 246.4 1.1 93.2 0.4 31.9 -1 282.9 0.9

209946.0 210672.1 211767.6 5610 5622.4 5635.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 2874.2 2879.2 2884.2 1.1 0.9 0.1 11.6 11.7 11.5 6648 7331 8659 3077 3406 4133 3571 3926 4526

212690.3 5647.2 0.9 2888.8 -0.2 11.3 10647 5293 5355

213860.7 5659.1 0.9 2893 0.7 11.2 12410 6687 5723

215692.6 5670.4 0.9 2898.5 0.7 11 13705 8012 5693

217459.2 219150.7 5681.1 5691.8 0.8 0.8 2902 2906.9 0.6 0.6 10.7 10.5 15003 15596 9778 11027 5225 4569

221023.7 5701.7 0.8 2914 0.7 10.2 18302 12988 5315

223038.7 5713 0.8 2916.8 0.6 9.9 19895 13981 5913

224598.8 5724.7 0.8 2920.9 0.7 9.5 21642 14909 6733

226475.8 5736.6 0.8 2923.8 0.6 9.2 23734 16063 7671

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

52

2171.7 -0.6 76.2 -2.2 2095.5 -0.5 89 -9.9 504.6 0.8 134.2 280.4 88.9 40.9 -6.9 144.6 -5.3 325.7 1.2 337.3 2.1 243.6 -0.9 92.2 -1 35.1 3.6 282.5 -1.1

2168.3 -0.1 76.4 0.3 2091.9 -0.1 87.3 -6.4 504.5 1.7 134 280.8 88.8 41.1 -4.3 142.4 -4.7 326.1 0.8 339.7 2 243.4 -0.1 92.3 -0.5 33.3 -2.2 281.6 -1.4

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

228330.5 230109.1 5749.2 5763.1 0.8 0.9 2927.4 2931.4 0.5 0.5 8.9 8.6 25226 26533 16685 16962 8541 9571

Mia m i – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – Mia m i B each

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

October 2010 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

179.2 2.8 89.3 89.9 170.1 0.8 33.9 32.1 40.4 4

194.9 8.7 95.4 99.5 180.1 5.9 36.3 33.5 42.1 4.2

210.6 8.1 103.3 107.3 189.1 4.9 38.7 34.7 43.9 4.4

228.8 8.7 110.2 118.7 200 5.8 41.9 36.6 45.8 4.1

234.8 2.6 113.9 121 199.7 -0.1 42.9 36.5 46.9 2.4

236.6 0.8 112.8 123.9 194.8 -2.5 43 35.4 47.7 1.7

229.5 -3 107 122.5 188.6 -3.2 41.3 34 48.3 1.3

233.3 1.7 107.7 125.6 191.5 1.6 41.6 34.2 49.3 2.1

239 2.4 111 128 196.8 2.7 42.3 34.8 50.7 2.9

249.5 4.4 116.3 133.2 202.6 3 43.8 35.6 52 2.5

262.8 5.3 122.9 139.9 210 3.6 45.7 36.6 53.4 2.8

2175.5 0.2 77.2 1.5 2098.3 0.1 85.1 -4.6 506.5 0.7 136.2 278.6 90.5 42.1 1.8 143 -1.7 332.4 2 342.4 1.6 240.9 -0.7 92.5 0.4 33 -7.7 280.3 -1.1

2224 2.2 79.5 3 2144.5 2.2 87 2.3 521.8 3 141.7 283.9 95.1 43.6 3.7 145.3 1.6 350.2 5.4 349.1 1.9 242.4 0.6 92.7 0.2 32.4 -1.7 279.8 -0.2

2286.8 2.8 81.7 2.7 2205.1 2.8 94.5 8.6 535.4 2.6 146.2 289.1 99.1 44.5 1.9 147.3 1.4 375.8 7.3 354.9 1.7 245.8 1.4 93.1 0.4 32 -1.2 281.9 0.7

213502.8 220168.1 5652.9 5696.9 0.9 0.8 2891.1 2909.9 0.3 0.7 11.2 10.3 11355 17199 6031 11944 5324 5255

227378.6 5743.4 0.8 2925.9 0.5 9.1 24284 16155 8129

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2198.1 0.2 103.4 -8 2094.7 0.6 122.4 1.2 511.4 -1.1 134.3 283.2 93.9 56.7 -7 164.3 1 319.3 -0.3 284 3.4 229.4 2 95.8 1.9 34.1 6.2 277.4 1

2253.1 2.5 100.8 -2.5 2152.3 2.7 131.5 7.5 517.9 1.3 138.7 286.1 93.2 55.8 -1.6 170 3.5 331.7 3.9 293.5 3.4 240.2 4.7 97.7 2 34.2 0.4 279.8 0.9

2336.8 3.7 101.1 0.3 2235.7 3.9 147.4 12.1 531 2.5 141.2 294.5 95.3 55.1 -1.2 178.2 4.8 357.2 7.7 301.5 2.7 247.5 3 99 1.3 34.5 1 284.3 1.6

2393.6 2.4 100.6 -0.5 2293 2.6 164.3 11.5 544.2 2.5 144.6 303.9 95.7 52.4 -4.9 183.4 2.9 368.7 3.2 307.9 2.1 251.6 1.6 99.3 0.3 34 -1.4 287.1 1

2416 0.9 98.6 -2 2317.4 1.1 161.1 -1.9 550.4 1.1 147.6 306.4 96.4 51.2 -2.4 181.3 -1.2 371 0.6 318.8 3.5 257.8 2.5 100.8 1.5 34 -0.2 291.1 1.4

2352.8 -2.6 92.5 -6.2 2260.3 -2.5 134.9 -16.2 541.6 -1.6 144.4 301.3 96 49.7 -2.9 170.8 -5.8 354.2 -4.5 326.2 2.3 256.9 -0.3 100.9 0.1 33.8 -0.4 291.2 0

2203.1 -6.4 79.7 -13.9 2123.4 -6.1 102.4 -24.1 505.4 -6.7 134.6 280.8 90 44.9 -9.8 154.4 -9.6 325.6 -8.1 330.2 1.2 247.1 -3.8 93.5 -7.3 34.1 0.9 285.9 -1.8

2172.1 -1.4 76.1 -4.5 2096 -1.3 89.2 -12.9 503.3 -0.4 133.8 280.2 88.8 41.3 -7.9 145.5 -5.8 325.7 0.1 337 2 242.7 -1.8 92.2 -1.4 35.8 4.8 283.4 -0.9

185435.1 5291.6 1.4 2573.5 0.4 5.7 37948 23579 14370

193655.8 5372.4 1.5 2610.2 1.4 5.1 40726 23667 17059

206587.5 5442.4 1.3 2673.5 2.4 4.2 41816 22542 19274

214098.4 5464.9 0.4 2742 2.6 3.6 32960 15769 17191

215118 5472.1 0.1 2807.3 2.4 4.1 14826 7602 7225

213308 5507.9 0.7 2852.3 1.6 6.1 7688 3526 4163

205466.7 5553.2 0.8 2851.1 0 10.2 3574 2244 1330

209747.1 5603.3 0.9 2882.4 1.1 11.6 6194 3411 2783

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

53

Nap l e s – Ma r c o I s l a n d

P r o fi l e s The Naples–Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier County only. Located on the southwest coast of Florida, the area is notable for numerous recreation and leisure activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the “Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida.”

Quick Facts:

• Population estimate of 318,537 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• A civilian labor force of 141,608 in September 2010 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 13.3% as of September 2010, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 18,875 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• NCH Healthcare System – 5000 employees

• Collier county School District – 4728 employees • Publix supermarket – 3246 employees • Marriott Hotels – 2328 employees

• Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. - 1715 employees

• Collier County Sheriff’s Office – 1029 employees • Winn Dixie Stores, Inc – 1014 employees • Home Depot – 1012 employees

Source: Economic Development Council of Collier County

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Naples–Marco Island MSA is expected to show strong growth in the economic indicators. The metro area will show a modest growth of 4.0 percent. Per capita income level, which is expected to be 49.1, is the highest in the state. Average annual wage will be the third highest in the state at a level of 49.5. The average annual wage is expected to grow at a rate of 2.4 percent. Population growth will average 1.2 percent, one of the highest in the state and the Gross Metro Product level will be 12,942.73 (Mill).

Employment growth is expected to average 1.5 percent each year, the highest in the state. The metro will see an unemployment rate of 11.8 percent.

The Federal Government sector represents Naples’ fastest growing sector, growing at a rate of 6.2 percent each year. The Professional and Business sector follows with a growth rate of 3.6 percent. The Construction and Mining sector is expected to decline this quarter at -0.7 percent.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Naples Zoo expansion not moving forward • The Naples Zoo issue will not be on the ballot this November. Voters would have chosen whether or not they were willing to be taxed in order to purchase the twenty-two acres of land necessary for a zoo expansion of nearly 50%.

• During recent discussions, no agreement could be reached on the sale of the land and the nonprofit zoo’s board decided to cancel the initiative. The purchase price was not to exceed $17 million.

Source: Naples News, July 26, 2010 Angel Fund ready to take off after securing $1.5M from Investors • Private investors have given $1.5 Million to the Tamiami Angel Fund to help with economic development.

54

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

Nap l e s – Ma r c o I s l a n d

• Thirty investors have donated $50,000 each.

The panel of investors will choose, by majority vote, who will receive the money. They believe $100,000-$200,000 will be given to 8 to 12 companies.

• Most investors are from southwest Florida.

This fund is the first of its kind for this region of Florida. Investors want to keep the money local, but are willing to give the funds all around Florida.

Source: Naples News, August 2, 2010

Naples Airport budget increase with staff raises, runway expansion • The airport increased its budget by $2.3 million to this year’s $15.2 million budget.

• The funds come from grants, airport user fees, and aviation fuel taxes. Employees can expect a 3.5% pay increase and promotions.

• Several members of Naples City Council expressed concern with the increase during this period of economic hardship.

Source: Naples News, September 1, 2010

Marco goes green, moves to require commercial recycling • A unanimous vote by the city council requires businesses, multi-family residences and special events to submit 96 gallons of recyclable materials per month.

• Marco Island has now joined Naples, Bonita, and Collier Counties with more rigorous requirements for recycling.

• Disobeying the regulations will result in a $200 fine. The city planner argues that this program will financially benefit most.

Source: Naples News, August 17, 2010 Jackson Laboratory secures another partner for proposed biomedical park • Athleticode Inc., a California-based company, plans to develop a research and corporate presence in the park.

• This company tests for genes related to medical problems like soft-tissue injuries. The company plans to create a database of 10,000 athletes of varying skill and age and process their genetics.

• Jackson intends to create about 250 jobs in the park with this addition.

Source: Naples News, August 18, 2010 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

55

Nap l e s – Ma r c o I s l a n d Naples MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining and Logging, construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

(percent)

0.6

0.8

16000.0

1.6

1.8

(Millions 2000 $)

12000.0 10000.0 8000.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate

6000.0

(Thousands)

20.0%

120.0

10.0%

110.0

5.0%

100.0

0.0%

90.0

-5.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Naples Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Real Personal Income 15.0%

56

1.4

14000.0

130.0

80.0

1.2

Naples Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Payroll Employment 140.0

1

-10.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income

Nap l e s – Ma r c o I s l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

October 2010 Forecast

2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

18.5 1.8 5.1 13.3 15.4 3.6 57.4 47.9 47 1.6

18.6 3.1 5.2 13.4 15.5 5.3 57.8 48 47.3 2.8

18.8 3.1 5.2 13.5 15.5 5.4 58.1 48 47.7 2.8

18.9 3 5.3 13.7 15.6 5 58.4 48.2 48 3

19.1 3.6 5.3 13.8 15.7 2.2 58.9 48.5 48.4 3

19.4 4 5.4 14 15.9 2.6 59.5 48.7 48.7 2.9

19.6 4.5 5.5 14.1 16 3.2 60 49 49 2.6

20 5.3 5.6 14.4 16.2 3.9 60.8 49.5 49.2 2.5

20.3 6 5.6 14.6 16.4 4.5 61.7 50 49.5 2.4

20.6 6.4 5.7 14.9 16.7 4.8 62.4 50.4 49.9 2.5

20.9 6.3 5.8 15 16.8 4.7 62.9 50.6 50.2 2.6

21.2 6.2 5.9 15.2 17 4.5 63.6 50.9 50.6 2.8

21.6 6.2 6 15.5 17.2 4.5 64.4 51.4 50.9 2.8

21.9 6.3 6.1 15.8 17.4 4.6 65.2 51.8 51.3 2.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

109 0 2.6 0.8 106.4 0 9.5 -6.1 21.8 4.7 3 17.2 1.5 1.5 -6.2 6.3 -2 11.2 -2.1 16.6 0.8 20.2 -0.6 5.9 3.6 0.9 40.7 12.5 -3.4

109.1 0.8 2.6 1.2 106.4 0.8 9.3 -3.3 21.9 3.2 3 17.2 1.5 1.5 -6.3 6.2 -2.4 11.2 -0.8 16.8 1.8 20.3 0.4 5.9 6.1 0.9 28.2 12.5 -0.4

109.1 1.1 2.6 0.1 106.5 1.1 9.1 -4.1 21.8 1.6 3 17.2 1.5 1.5 -4.9 6.3 -1.6 11.3 1.9 16.8 2.9 20.2 1 6 7.7 0.9 33.7 12.6 -0.9

109.4 0.7 2.6 0.3 106.8 0.7 9 -5.5 21.9 0.5 3 17.2 1.6 1.5 -3.1 6.4 0.8 11.4 2.7 17 2.5 20.2 1.2 6 5.6 0.9 -11.9 12.6 0.2

109.9 0.8 2.7 2.7 107.2 0.8 9 -5.2 22 0.8 3.1 17.2 1.6 1.5 2.8 6.4 1.7 11.6 3.6 17.1 2.8 20.2 0.1 6 1.8 0.9 -4.7 12.5 0.2

110.6 1.4 2.7 3 107.9 1.4 9 -3.6 22.2 1.5 3.1 17.4 1.6 1.6 3.4 6.5 4 11.8 5 17.2 2.6 20.2 0 6 1.9 0.9 -0.5 12.6 0.4

111.3 2 2.7 3.6 108.6 2 9 -1.2 22.4 2.5 3.2 17.5 1.6 1.6 4.4 6.5 3.7 11.9 5.7 17.3 2.5 20.4 0.8 6.1 1.6 0.9 -0.2 12.6 0.5

112.3 2.6 2.8 4 109.5 2.6 9.1 1.3 22.6 3.6 3.2 17.7 1.7 1.6 5.1 6.6 3.5 12 5.5 17.4 2.7 20.5 1.3 6.1 1.5 0.9 -0.2 12.7 0.7

113.3 3.1 2.8 4.2 110.5 3.1 9.3 3.1 22.9 4 3.2 17.8 1.7 1.6 5.5 6.7 3.9 12.2 5.9 17.5 2.6 20.6 2 6.1 1.7 0.9 -0.4 12.7 1.3

114.4 3.4 2.8 4.2 111.6 3.4 9.4 5.2 23.1 4.1 3.3 18 1.7 1.6 5.8 6.7 4.1 12.5 6.1 17.6 2.4 20.8 2.6 6.1 1.7 0.9 -0.6 12.8 1.6

115.4 3.7 2.8 3.9 112.6 3.7 9.7 7.5 23.3 4.1 3.3 18.1 1.7 1.7 5.4 6.8 3.8 12.8 7.1 17.7 2.3 20.9 2.6 6.2 1.8 0.9 -0.3 12.9 1.9

116.7 4 2.9 3.6 113.9 4 9.9 8.7 23.6 4.1 3.4 18.3 1.8 1.7 4.8 6.8 3.6 13.1 8.5 17.8 2.5 21 2.5 6.2 1.9 0.9 0 12.9 2.3

118 4.1 2.9 3.1 115.1 4.1 10.2 9.7 23.8 4.1 3.4 18.5 1.8 1.7 4.4 6.9 3.4 13.4 9 18 2.5 21.1 2.2 6.2 1.8 0.9 0.1 13 2.6

119.1 4.1 2.9 2.7 116.2 4.1 10.4 10.2 24 3.9 3.5 18.6 1.8 1.7 3.9 7 3.2 13.6 9.1 18.1 2.5 21.2 2.1 6.2 1.6 0.9 0.3 13.1 2.8

12355.5 321.9 0.8 144.9 2.4 13 1545 815 730

12409.5 322.5 0.8 147 2.5 13 1533 914 619

12493.2 323.2 0.8 148.9 2.5 12.7 1639 1056 583

12574.9 324 0.9 150.8 4.9 12.6 1837 1237 600

12670.2 324.9 1 152.8 5.4 12.5 2082 1463 620

12795.6 325.9 1.1 154.7 5.3 12.2 2316 1671 645

12908.1 326.8 1.1 156.7 5.2 12 2501 1864 638

13041.0 327.9 1.2 157.8 4.7 11.7 2713 2048 665

13184.3 329 1.3 159 4.1 11.3 3093 2334 759

13335.5 330.3 1.3 160 3.4 10.9 3305 2469 836

13460.2 331.6 1.5 160.7 2.6 10.5 3512 2561 951

13619.9 333.1 1.6 161.4 2.3 10.1 3816 2740 1076

13776.1 334.7 1.7 162.2 2 9.8 4023 2850 1173

13927.6 336.3 1.8 163 1.9 9.5 4185 2895 1290

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

57

Nap l e s – Ma r c o I s l a n d

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

October 2010 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

12.7 6.3 4.5 8.1 12 4.2 44.2 42 40.3 8.3

15.2 19.8 5 10.2 14 16.7 51.1 47.2 42 4.2

16.8 10.6 5.6 11.2 15.1 7.3 54.7 49.1 44.2 5.1

19.1 14 6 13.1 16.7 11 61.4 53.6 45 1.8

20.1 5.3 6.1 14 17.1 2.5 64.2 54.6 46.9 4.2

19.7 -2 5.6 14.1 16.3 -5.1 62.5 51.4 46.2 -1.4

18.3 -7.1 5.1 13.2 15.1 -7.3 57.5 47.3 46.1 -0.2

18.4 0.5 5.1 13.3 15.1 0.4 57.3 47 46.8 1.5

19.1 3.5 5.3 13.7 15.7 3.8 58.7 48.4 48.2 2.9

20.1 5.6 5.6 14.5 16.3 4.1 61.2 49.7 49.4 2.5

21.4 6.3 6 15.4 17.1 4.6 64 51.2 50.8 2.8

129.6 -2.3 3.3 -1.3 126.3 -2.3 19.7 -17.7 24.2 -1.3 3.4 19.2 1.6 1.8 -4.9 8.2 0.1 12.6 -7.7 16.7 5.3 23.3 4.8 6 3.2 0.7 -0.1 13.3 4.6

121.1 -6.6 3 -9.7 118.1 -6.5 14.4 -26.6 23 -4.9 3.3 18.2 1.5 1.8 -0.9 7.3 -10.4 12 -4.5 16.9 0.8 22.8 -2 6 0.5 0.7 -3.6 13.2 -0.3

110.6 -8.7 2.7 -9.8 107.9 -8.6 10.4 -27.7 21.2 -7.6 3 16.7 1.5 1.6 -8.9 6.5 -11.2 11.5 -4.1 16.5 -1.8 20.8 -8.9 5.7 -4.6 0.7 1.3 12.9 -2.9

108.6 -1.7 2.6 -1.9 106 -1.7 9.5 -9.5 21.7 2.3 3 17.2 1.5 1.5 -4.5 6.3 -2.8 11.1 -3.2 16.6 0.1 20.1 -3.3 5.8 0.9 0.8 23.6 12.6 -2.4

109.7 1 2.7 1.5 107.1 1 9 -4.6 22 1.1 3.1 17.2 1.6 1.5 -0.6 6.4 1.2 11.5 3.3 17 2.7 20.2 0.6 6 4.2 0.9 1.6 12.6 0

112.8 2.8 2.8 4 110 2.8 9.2 2.1 22.8 3.6 3.2 17.8 1.7 1.6 5.2 6.6 3.8 12.2 5.8 17.5 2.5 20.6 1.7 6.1 1.6 0.9 -0.4 12.7 1

117.3 4 2.9 3.3 114.4 4 10 9.1 23.7 4 3.4 18.4 1.8 1.7 4.6 6.9 3.5 13.2 8.4 17.9 2.4 21.1 2.3 6.2 1.8 0.9 0 13 2.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

58

111.7 3.1 2.9 -5.3 108.8 3.3 14.6 -0.8 22.4 -1.3 3.1 17.7 1.7 1.7 -3.3 6.7 2.6 12.9 26 13.7 3.2 18.8 1.2 5.5 -0.3 0.7 0 11.8 4.5

118.3 5.8 3.1 5.9 115.1 5.8 16.8 14.8 23 2.4 3.3 18 1.7 1.8 7.3 7.1 5.9 14.2 10.2 13.9 1.8 20.4 8.1 5.4 -1.4 0.7 0 11.9 1

125.9 6.5 3.2 3 122.7 6.6 20.3 21.3 24.3 5.6 3.4 19.1 1.8 1.8 0 7.7 9.4 13.1 -7.9 15 7.6 21.8 7.3 5.7 5.2 0.7 0 12.3 2.9

132.6 5.3 3.3 3.6 129.3 5.4 23.9 17.6 24.5 0.9 3.2 19.5 1.7 1.9 3.2 8.2 5.6 13.6 4 15.9 5.8 22.2 1.7 5.8 1.9 0.7 0 12.7 3.4

10973.2 11829.4 13039.1 13836.1 13389.9 12709.5 12048.1 12324.3 12633.5 13117.2 13695.9 286.3 296.9 306.9 311.7 313.7 316 318.8 321.6 324.5 328.5 333.9 3.6 3.7 3.4 1.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.7 133.1 138 144 151 151 148 144.2 145.2 151.8 158.4 161.8 2.7 3.6 4.4 4.8 0 -2 -2.6 0.7 4.5 4.3 2.2 4.9 4.2 3.4 3.1 4.2 6.8 11.2 13.2 12.5 11.5 10 5333 6100 5723 4272 1962 955 834 1490 1968 2903 3884 3401 4015 4034 3054 1163 668 645 902 1357 2179 2762 1932 2084 1688 1218 799 287 189 588 612 724 1122

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

Oca l a

P r o fi l e s Comprised of Marion County only, the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area in the center of the state. The second-largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area.

Quick Facts:

• Population estimate of 328,547 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• A civilian labor force of 135,193 in September 2010 (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• An unemployment rate of 14.3% as of September 2010, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 19,300 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• Marion County Public Schools – 6,084 employees

• Munroe Regional Medical Center – 2,500 employees • State of Florida (all departments) – 2,500 employees • Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – 2,370 employees

• Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,404 employees

• Marion County Board of County Commissioners – 1,400 employees • Ocala Regional Medical Center – 1,301 employees

• Taylor, Bean & Whitaker Mortgage Corporation – 1,238 employees • AT&T – 1,000 employees

• City of Ocala – 979 employees

Source: Ocala/Marion County Economic Development Council

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Ocala MSA is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in the economic indicators.

Personal income growth is expected to average 4.4 percent annually, the highest of the metros. Per capita income level is the lowest of the metros at 26.4. Relative to other metro areas, Ocala will have the second lowest average annual wage level, at 39.2.

Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.6 percent. The metro has the highest expected annual population growth in the state, at 1.8 percent. The Gross Metro Product is expected to be 6,216.23 (Mill), the lowest in the state.

Employment growth is expected to average a rate of 1.2 percent annually, the third highest in the state.

The unemployment rate counters employment growth at 13.4 percent, the highest in the state.

The Federal Government sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in Ocala, averaging an annual growth rate of 12.1 percent. The Professional and Businesses Services sector follows with a growth rate of 4.4 percent. The third ranked is Education and Health Services sector at 2.2 percent. Two sectors will experience negative growth, Construction and Mining and Financial sectors at -1.5 and -1.9 percent.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Foreclosures back up again • June brought 1,102 new foreclosures to Marion County. This represents a 33 percent increase from May. • The foreclosure rate was the highest experienced in Marion County in the last 12 months.

• Florida foreclosures also increased to place the state third highest in foreclosure rates in the nation. One in thirty-two homes in Florida has been foreclosed.

Source: The Ocala Star Banner, July 16, 2010

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

59

Oca l a

Federal regulators close Independent National Bank • The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency shut down Independent National Bank and later the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation sold it to CenterState Bank.

• The FDIC estimates it lost $23.2 million in deposit insurance funds.

• Independent failed to raise $10 million in capital necessary to bring capital ratios up to desired levels in November.

• Most current employees will be kept to continue running Independent’s four former branches.

Source: The Ocala Star Banner, August 21, 2010 Expansion plans with dance facility, saloon for entertainment complex • $500,000 in renovations will be made to the Ocala Entertainment Complex including a dance floor and a theme-based saloon.

• The renovations follow a bankruptcy claim by the owners of the building, Porter Ocala, LLC with Regions Bank.

• The nightclub’s owner, Bobby Tillander, thinks that the expansion will be profitable as more people choose to stay in Ocala to go to clubs instead of traveling to Orlando or Tampa due to the recession.

Source: The Ocala Star Banner, August 30, 2010

60

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

Ocala cuts budget but raises tax rate • The Ocala City Council cut the budget for 2011 by 12 percent.

• The property tax rate, however, was still raised.

The fire, water and other fees were kept the same.

• The property tax rate increase was approved to maintain city tax revenues in the presence of decreasing property values.

Source: The Ocala Star Banner, September 2, 2010 Ocala Nissan Mitsubishi buys Bo Williams property • The eight acres once owned by Bo Williams Buick Suzuki now belong to Ocala Nissan Mitsubishi and were purchased for $6 million.

• New owner Steve Lightbody says the new land will be used to build a new showroom and offices.

• The property currently contains a body shop, which will most likely be removed as part of the renovation plans.

Source: The Ocala Star Banner, September 3, 2010

Oca l a Ocala MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining and Logging, construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

(percent)

0.6

0.8

7000.0

1.4

1.6

1.8

(Millions 2000 $)

6500.0 6000.0 5500.0 5000.0 4500.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate

4000.0

(Thousands)

12.0% 10.0%

100.0

8.0%

95.0

6.0%

90.0

4.0%

85.0

2.0%

80.0

0.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Ocala Payroll Employment

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Ocala Real Personal Income

105.0

75.0

1.2

Ocala Real Gross Metro Product

Ocala Payroll Employment 110.0

1

-2.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

61

Oca l a

Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL

October 2010 Forecast

2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

10.4 3.5 3.5 6.9 8.6 5.3 31.2 26.1 37.7 2.5

10.5 3.4 3.5 7 8.7 5.6 31.4 26.1 38 2.7

10.5 3.6 3.5 7 8.7 5.9 31.5 26.1 38.3 2.7

10.6 3.4 3.6 7.1 8.8 5.3 31.7 26.1 38.6 2.9

10.8 3.7 3.6 7.2 8.8 2.2 31.9 26.2 38.8 2.9

10.9 4.1 3.6 7.2 8.9 2.6 32.1 26.3 39 2.7

11 4.5 3.7 7.3 9 3.1 32.3 26.4 39.3 2.5

11.2 5.2 3.7 7.5 9.1 3.8 32.6 26.5 39.5 2.4

11.4 5.7 3.8 7.6 9.2 4.2 32.9 26.7 39.7 2.3

11.5 6.1 3.8 7.7 9.3 4.5 33.2 26.8 40 2.4

11.7 5.9 3.9 7.8 9.4 4.3 33.3 26.8 40.3 2.5

11.8 5.7 4 7.9 9.5 4.1 33.6 26.9 40.5 2.7

12 5.7 4 8 9.6 4 33.9 27 40.8 2.8

12.2 5.8 4.1 8.1 9.7 4.1 34.2 27.2 41.1 2.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

62

91.1 -0.6 6.2 -4.5 84.9 -0.3 6.4 -10.4 20.4 0.4 3.4 14.4 2.5 1.6 -5.9 4.5 -10.1 7.7 1 12.8 2.6 9.7 -0.4 3.8 3.6 1.2 65.1 16.9 0.6

91.1 0.7 6.2 -1.9 84.9 0.9 6.3 -8.5 20.4 1.9 3.4 14.4 2.5 1.5 -3.1 4.4 -3.7 7.8 1.6 12.9 3.3 9.7 1.2 3.8 2 1.1 54.6 16.9 0.4

91.2 1.3 6.2 -1.4 84.9 1.5 6.2 -6.5 20.3 1.8 3.4 14.4 2.5 1.6 -1.4 4.5 -1 7.9 4.3 13 2.5 9.7 1.2 3.8 3.8 1.1 41.4 16.9 1.1

91.4 0.9 6.2 0.1 85.2 1 6.2 -4.7 20.3 1.2 3.4 14.3 2.5 1.6 -1.8 4.5 1.6 8 4.4 13.1 2.8 9.7 0.3 3.8 2.1 1.1 -8.5 16.9 0.8

91.8 0.7 6.3 1.5 85.5 0.7 6.2 -4.1 20.5 0.5 3.4 14.4 2.6 1.6 1.7 4.5 0.8 8.1 4.9 13.2 2.8 9.7 -0.2 3.8 1.2 1.1 -4.8 16.9 -0.2

92.4 1.4 6.3 2 86.1 1.4 6.2 -2.5 20.6 1.3 3.5 14.5 2.6 1.6 2.3 4.6 3 8.3 5.8 13.3 2.9 9.7 -0.3 3.9 1.3 1.1 -0.6 16.9 0.2

92.9 2 6.4 2.6 86.6 1.9 6.2 -0.3 20.8 2.4 3.5 14.6 2.6 1.6 3.1 4.6 2.8 8.4 5.9 13.3 2.9 9.7 0.5 3.9 1.1 1.1 -0.6 16.9 0.4

93.7 2.5 6.4 3.1 87.2 2.4 6.3 1.8 21 3.5 3.5 14.8 2.7 1.6 3.8 4.7 2.9 8.4 5.4 13.5 3 9.8 1.1 3.9 1 1.1 -0.7 17 0.5

94.4 2.8 6.5 3.3 87.9 2.8 6.4 3.2 21.2 3.9 3.6 14.9 2.7 1.6 4.3 4.7 3.2 8.6 5.6 13.5 2.8 9.9 1.7 3.9 1.2 1.1 -0.9 17 1

95.2 3.1 6.5 3.3 88.7 3 6.5 5 21.5 4 3.6 15 2.8 1.7 4.6 4.7 3.3 8.7 5.6 13.6 2.5 9.9 2.3 3.9 1.1 1.1 -1.1 17.1 1.2

95.9 3.2 6.6 3.3 89.3 3.2 6.6 7 21.6 3.8 3.6 15.1 2.8 1.7 4.2 4.8 3 8.9 6.5 13.6 2.3 10 2.3 3.9 1.3 1.1 -0.8 17.2 1.4

96.8 3.4 6.6 3.1 90.2 3.4 6.8 8 21.8 3.7 3.7 15.2 2.8 1.7 3.5 4.8 2.8 9.1 7.7 13.8 2.3 10 2.1 3.9 1.4 1.1 -0.5 17.3 1.6

97.6 3.4 6.7 2.8 91 3.5 7 8.9 22 3.6 3.7 15.4 2.9 1.7 3.1 4.8 2.6 9.3 8.2 13.8 2.2 10 1.9 3.9 1.3 1.1 -0.4 17.3 1.9

98.4 3.4 6.7 2.4 91.7 3.4 7.1 9.5 22.2 3.3 3.7 15.5 2.9 1.7 2.8 4.8 2.5 9.4 8.4 13.9 2 10.1 1.7 3.9 1 1.1 -0.2 17.5 2.1

5952.8 332 0.9 135.5 0.1 14.3 621 606 14

5972.8 333.2 1.1 136.9 1.2 14.4 751 742 9

6007 334.5 1.3 138.3 2.2 14.2 942 932 10

6040.6 335.9 1.5 139.5 3.2 14.1 1214 1193 21

6083.4 337.6 1.7 140.8 3.9 14 1573 1545 28

6144.8 339.4 1.9 142 3.7 13.8 1967 1927 40

6201.1 341.4 2.1 143.3 3.6 13.6 2327 2273 54

6263.9 343.5 2.3 144.2 3.4 13.3 2690 2614 76

6331.8 345.7 2.4 145.1 3.1 13 3044 2958 86

6403 347.9 2.5 145.8 2.7 12.7 3206 3112 94

6460.9 350.1 2.5 146.1 2 12.3 3315 3210 105

6532.5 352.4 2.6 146.4 1.5 11.8 3508 3391 117

6602.1 354.8 2.6 146.8 1.2 11.5 3617 3488 129

6670.2 357.2 2.7 147.2 1 11.2 3659 3518 141

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

Oca l a

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

October 2010 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

6.9 7.4 2.7 4.2 6.6 5.3 24.7 23.4 30.1 6

7.7 11 3 4.7 7.1 8.1 26.4 24.4 30.9 2.6

8.6 11.9 3.3 5.3 7.7 8.6 28.4 25.5 32.2 4

9.6 11.7 3.7 5.9 8.4 8.7 30.5 26.7 34.5 7.3

10 3.6 3.7 6.2 8.5 0.8 30.8 26.2 34.8 0.9

10.2 2.6 3.7 6.5 8.4 -0.7 31.2 25.7 36.1 3.8

10.1 -1.6 3.4 6.6 8.3 -1.8 30.6 25.1 36.8 1.7

10.3 2.7 3.4 6.9 8.5 2.6 31.1 25.6 37.6 2.4

10.7 3.7 3.6 7.1 8.8 4 31.8 26.2 38.7 2.8

11.3 5.4 3.8 7.5 9.2 3.9 32.7 26.6 39.6 2.4

11.9 5.8 4 8 9.5 4.1 33.7 27 40.7 2.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

89.9 3.4 9.2 -1 80.7 3.9 8.5 15.3 20.9 2 3.3 15.1 2.5 2.2 -5.1 4.3 9.2 7.6 4.8 10.5 8.5 7.7 0.9 3.6 -1.6 0.7 -2.3 14.7 0.4

95.9 6.6 9.6 4 86.3 6.9 9.9 16.7 21.7 3.6 3.6 15.6 2.5 2.2 1.2 4.9 12.5 8.2 7.5 11.1 6 8.7 13.1 3.8 7.7 0.7 0 15.1 2.4

101.5 5.9 9.9 3.6 91.6 6.2 10.7 8.8 22.9 5.7 3.9 16.3 2.7 2.2 -2.3 5.4 11.1 8.9 9.5 12 7.7 9.2 6.3 4 5.2 0.7 0.1 15.4 2.3

106.1 4.5 9.9 -0.7 96.2 5.1 12.6 17 23.4 1.9 4.2 16.4 2.7 2.1 -1.9 5.8 6 9.3 4.1 12.7 5.8 9.7 4.8 4.1 1.9 0.7 0 16 3.5

106.8 0.6 9.6 -3 97.2 1 11.6 -7.6 23.8 1.7 4.4 16.4 2.9 2 -7.2 6 3.6 8.5 -8.2 13.3 4.8 10.6 9.5 4.3 4.6 0.7 0 16.4 2.9

101.9 -4.6 8.3 -13.9 93.6 -3.6 9.6 -16.9 22.7 -4.5 4.1 15.7 2.9 1.9 -3 5.9 -0.6 8.1 -4.6 13.5 1.5 10.4 -2 3.9 -8.6 0.7 2.3 16.8 2.1

92.8 -9 6.6 -20.2 86.2 -8 7.4 -23.5 20.5 -9.8 3.5 14.5 2.5 1.7 -11.4 5.2 -11.6 7.7 -5.1 12.7 -6.2 9.9 -5 3.6 -7.8 0.7 1.1 16.8 0

90.7 -2.2 6.2 -5.4 84.5 -2 6.5 -12.2 20.2 -1.4 3.4 14.3 2.4 1.6 -6.7 4.5 -14.4 7.7 -0.5 12.8 0.9 9.7 -1.9 3.8 3.9 1.1 45.8 16.8 0

91.7 1.1 6.3 0.5 85.4 1.1 6.2 -4.5 20.4 1.2 3.4 14.4 2.6 1.6 0.2 4.5 1.1 8.1 4.9 13.1 2.7 9.7 0.2 3.8 2.1 1.1 3.7 16.9 0.5

94.1 2.6 6.5 3.1 87.6 2.5 6.3 2.4 21.1 3.4 3.5 14.8 2.7 1.6 4 4.7 3.1 8.5 5.6 13.5 2.8 9.8 1.4 3.9 1.1 1.1 -0.8 17 0.8

97.2 3.3 6.6 2.9 90.6 3.4 6.9 8.4 21.9 3.6 3.7 15.3 2.8 1.7 3.4 4.8 2.7 9.2 7.7 13.8 2.2 10 2 3.9 1.2 1.1 -0.4 17.3 1.7

4938.4 280.7 3.1 114.3 2.3 5.4 6718 5982 736

5372.9 291.4 3.8 118.9 4 4.6 5083 4994 88

5895.2 303.3 4.1 126.8 6.7 3.7 7166 6606 559

6264.6 314.9 3.8 132.8 4.8 3.4 7214 6862 352

6283.6 323.2 2.7 136.5 2.7 4.5 3121 2808 313

6189.1 327.2 1.2 138.1 1.1 7.8 1202 1186 16

5840.9 328.8 0.5 136 -1.5 12.9 414 400 14

5929.6 331.6 0.8 135.7 -0.2 14.5 632 625 7

6068.9 336.8 1.6 140.1 3.3 14 1424 1399 25

6300 344.6 2.3 144.6 3.2 13.2 2817 2739 77

6566.4 353.6 2.6 146.6 1.4 11.7 3525 3402 123

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

63

O r l a n d o – Ki s s i m m ee

P r o fi l e s The Orlando–Kissimmee MSA is comprised of Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole counties. Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World and numerous other Disney enterprises, Universal Studios, and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic, the Orlando Predators arena football team, and Atlanta Braves spring training at Disney’s Wide World of Sports. The University of Central Florida, the nation’s third-largest university, and many other places of higher education also reside in the MSA. QUICK FACTS: • • • • • • •

Metro population estimate of 2,082,421 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) Lake County population estimate of 312,119 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) Orange County population estimate of 1,086,480 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) Osceola County population estimate of 270,618 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) Seminole County population estimate of 413,204 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) A civilian labor force for the MSA of 1,130,702 in September 2010 (Florida Research and Economic Database) An unemployment rate of 11.8% as of September 2010, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 133,603 unemployed people in the Orlando MSA. (Florida Research and Economic Database)

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • • • • • • • • • •

Walt Disney Co. – 62,200 employees Orange County Public Schools – 23,228 employees Florida State Government – 19,500 Florida Hospital (Adventist Health System) – 16,002 employees Publix Super Markets Inc. – 15,606 employees Universal Orlando – 13,000 employees Federal Government – 12,700 University of Central Florida – 10,152 employees Orlando Regional Healthcare System – 10,000 employees Seminole County Public Schools – 9,984 employees

Sources: Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission, Agency for Workforce Innovation, and Orlando Business Journal 64

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Orlando–Kissimmee area is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to grow at a rate of 4.9 percent annually. The per capita income level is expected to be 29.4. Average annual wage growth will be 2.4 percent, and average annual wage will be at a level of 44.4. The Orlando MSA will see population growth of 1.3 percent, one of the highest in the state.

Gross Metro Product is expected to be one of the highest in the state, averaging 86,666.25 (Mill).

Employment growth is forecasted to average 1.5 percent annually, the highest in the state. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 10.4 percent.

In the Orlando area, the fastest growing sector is expected to be Professional and Business Services with an average annual growth rate of 3.6 percent. This will be followed by Education and Health Services, with an average annual growth rate of 2.8percent.

The sectors that will experience negative growth are the Financial, construction and Mining, and Federal Government sectors, with an average annual rates of growth of -0.1, -0.3, -0.4 percent, respectively.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s “Potter effect” benefits Orlando Hotels • Hoteliers have been raising their room price this summer – and people are paying it. The average room rate increased 8%, and the hotels booked 70.6% of available rooms, a 3.9% increase from a year ago.

• The owners attribute the increase to Universal’s Wizarding World of Harry Potter. They hope that the buzz will continue, as the next two movies have yet to be released.

• The hotels experienced their first year-over-year advance since 2008 with the daily room rate rising 2.8% Source: Orlando Sentinel, July 20, 2010

O r l a n d o – Ki s s i m m ee

Lockheed plans to cut 90 jobs at Orlando Missiles Unit • The Pentagon has pressured its defense contractors, such as Lockheed Martin, to cut spending. This is Lockheed’s first layoff in a decade.

• Lockheed’s contracts for this year exceed $1 billion. Logically, the company thrives during times of war.

• Among these layoffs are a series of cost-reducing strategies, including the thinning of executive ranks through early retirement projects.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, July 21, 2010 Convergys adding 300 jobs in Lake Mary • Three hundred new customer service employees will work full-time for the Convergys Corporation, providing sales support.

• Convergys is offering training during July and August. Workers will receive ten dollars per hour and receive insurance, benefits, and other incentives.

• Orange County received $11,551,158. Seminole County accepted $3,995,178. The state gave $3,239,646 to Osceola. Lake County was awarded $3,199,585.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, September 9, 2010 Metroplan OKs $23M for 11 new road projects • The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 awarded Florida $340M. After many bridge and roadwork projects were completed, the state was still under budget. The excess money from the award will now go to Central Florida development.

• An estimated 650 construction jobs will be created. The construction should improve safety for pedestrians and drivers. Projects include resurfacing, pedestrian overpasses, and the widening and reconstruction of roads.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, September 17, 2010

• Convergys Corp., a Cincinnati-based company, focuses on customer relationship services, and outsourced human resources management.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, August 5, 2010 C. Fla. Gets $34.5M in federal housing aid • Central Florida’s twelve counties and cities received $34.5 million from U.S Housing and Urban Development to improve or demolish foreclosed properties.

• HUD is funding neighborhoods across the nation with $1 billion. Florida received $206 million, the most funding compared to the other states.

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O r l a n d o – Ki s s i m m ee Orlando - Kissimmee Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Providing Private Service Providing Mining and Logging Construction Manufacturing Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.8

1.6

1.8

100000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

70000.0 60000.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0

66

1.4

80000.0

1050.0

800.0

1.2

Orlando Real Gross Metro Product

50000.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 OrlandoPayroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Orlando Real Personal Income

Orlando Payroll Employment 1100.0

1.0

90000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income

O r l a n d o – Ki s s i m m ee

Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

October 2010 Forecast

2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

73 2.5 42.7 30.3 60.8 4.4 34.6 28.8 42.7 1.9

73.4 2.6 43 30.5 61 4.8 34.7 28.8 43 2.6

74 2.7 43.3 30.7 61.2 4.9 34.9 28.8 43.4 2.8

74.6 2.5 43.7 30.9 61.5 4.5 35 28.9 43.7 3.2

75.3 3.2 44.2 31.2 62 1.8 35.3 29 44 3

76.2 3.8 44.8 31.5 62.5 2.4 35.6 29.2 44.2 2.7

77.3 4.4 45.4 31.9 63.1 3.1 36 29.4 44.5 2.5

78.4 5.1 46 32.4 63.8 3.6 36.4 29.6 44.7 2.4

79.6 5.6 46.7 32.9 64.5 4.1 36.8 29.8 45 2.3

80.8 6 47.4 33.4 65.3 4.5 37.2 30.1 45.3 2.4

82 6.1 48.2 33.8 66 4.5 37.6 30.2 45.6 2.5

83.4 6.4 49 34.4 66.8 4.8 38.1 30.5 45.9 2.7

84.8 6.6 49.8 35 67.7 4.9 38.5 30.7 46.2 2.8

86.2 6.6 50.6 35.6 68.5 4.9 38.9 30.9 46.5 2.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

995 -0.5 37.4 -0.3 957.5 -0.5 49.6 -5.3 181.6 -1.3 39.1 112.2 29.5 23.7 -4.1 60.4 -3 164.9 -1.7 119.8 1.3 191.2 1.4 49 1.8 12.7 6.3 104.7 0.2

994.2 -0.1 37.6 1.7 956.7 -0.2 48.8 -1.2 181.7 -0.2 39.1 112.4 29.5 23.8 -3.1 59.4 -4.5 165.2 -1 120.8 2.6 191.1 0.3 49.1 2.3 12.1 0.9 104.6 -0.2

993.7 0.1 37.7 1.8 955.9 0.1 48 0.4 181.5 -0.1 39.2 112.1 29.6 24 -0.9 59.7 -3.9 165.5 -0.5 121.2 1.7 190 0.5 49.3 2.9 12.1 -0.2 104.7 -0.3

996.1 -0.3 38 1.5 958.2 -0.4 47.6 -4.6 181.7 0 39.6 111.4 30 24.2 1.6 59.8 -2.7 167.2 0.4 121.8 1.7 189.7 -0.9 49.4 1.4 12 -15.5 104.8 0.3

1000.9 0.6 38.3 2.3 962.6 0.5 47.7 -3.8 182.8 0.6 40.1 111.3 30.4 24.3 2.8 60 -0.6 169.8 3 122.6 2.3 189.3 -1 49.5 1 12 -5.5 104.6 -0.1

1008.4 1.4 38.6 2.8 969.8 1.4 47.7 -2.2 184.5 1.5 40.7 112.2 30.8 24.5 3.1 60.3 1.4 173.4 5 123.7 2.5 189.1 -1.1 49.6 1.1 12 -0.6 104.9 0.2

1016.7 2.3 39 3.4 977.7 2.3 48.1 0.1 186.3 2.6 41.1 113.1 31.3 24.9 3.7 60.7 1.8 176 6.3 124.9 3.1 190 0 49.8 0.8 12 -0.8 105.1 0.4

1024.3 2.8 39.4 3.8 984.9 2.8 48.7 2.3 188 3.5 41.5 114.1 31.7 25.1 3.8 61.1 2.2 177.5 6.2 126.2 3.7 191 0.7 49.7 0.7 11.9 -0.9 105.5 0.6

1033.5 3.3 39.8 4 993.7 3.2 49.5 3.8 189.6 3.7 41.9 114.9 32 25.3 3.8 61.6 2.7 180.6 6.4 127.5 4 192 1.4 49.9 0.9 11.9 -1.1 105.9 1.2

1043.2 3.4 40.2 4.1 1003 3.4 50.6 6 191.3 3.7 42.3 115.7 32.4 25.4 3.7 62 2.8 184 6.1 128.6 4 192.8 2 50.1 0.9 11.9 -1.3 106.3 1.4

1052.8 3.6 40.5 3.9 1012.3 3.5 51.7 7.6 192.8 3.5 42.8 116.3 32.8 25.6 3.1 62.3 2.6 187.7 6.7 129.3 3.5 193.9 2.1 50.3 1 11.9 -1 106.8 1.6

1063.4 3.8 40.9 3.7 1022.5 3.8 53 8.8 194.4 3.4 43.2 117.2 33.1 25.8 2.6 62.6 2.4 192 8.1 130.5 3.4 194.7 1.9 50.4 1.4 11.9 -0.7 107.3 1.8

1073.8 3.9 41.1 3.3 1032.7 3.9 54.4 9.8 195.9 3.3 43.6 118 33.5 25.9 2.4 63 2.3 196.4 8.7 131.5 3.2 195.3 1.7 50.6 1.4 11.8 -0.5 107.9 1.9

1083.1 3.8 41.3 2.9 1041.8 3.9 55.8 10.4 197.1 3 43.9 118.7 33.8 25.9 2.1 63.4 2.3 200 8.7 132.4 2.9 195.9 1.6 50.8 1.5 11.8 -0.3 108.5 2.1

82722 2110.3 1.1 1118.6 0.3 11.6 4608 3912 696

83070.7

83610.6 2122 1.1 1122.8 0 11.4 5680 5150 531

84106.5 2128.2 1.1 1124.7 0.2 11.2 7199 6324 875

84719.9 2134.6 1.2 1127.6 0.8 11 8850 7703 1147

85615.1 2141.3 1.2 1131.1 1 10.7 10661 9143 1519

86505.7

87356.9

2155.4 1.3 1138 1.2 10.1 15176 12730 2446

88310.2 2163.4 1.4 1143 1.4 9.7 17119 14387 2732

89308.4

2148.4 1.2 1134.1 1 10.4 12720 10914 1807

90150.3 2181.1 1.5 1150.8 1.5 9.1 18957 15729 3228

91133.9 2191.5 1.7 1155 1.5 8.7 20245 16682 3563

92132.3 2202.4 1.8 1159.6 1.5 8.4 21066 17218 3848

93107.6 2214.1 1.9 1164.6 1.6 8.2 21580 17404 4176

2115.9 1.1 1120.3 -0.2 11.6 4893 4389 504

2171.9 1.4 1146.6 1.4 9.4 18114 15194 2920

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

67

O r l a n d o – Ki s s i m m ee

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

October 2010 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

53.1 5.9 33.2 19.9 50.4 3.8 29.3 27.8 35.7 3.9

58.1 9.4 36.3 21.7 53.7 6.6 31 28.6 37.4 4.8

64 10.2 40.2 23.8 57.5 7 32.9 29.5 39.1 4.6

69.9 9.3 43.5 26.5 61.1 6.4 34.9 30.5 40.6 3.6

72.4 3.5 45.2 27.2 61.6 0.7 35.5 30.2 41.1 1.4

73.6 1.7 45.2 28.4 60.6 -1.6 35.7 29.4 41.8 1.7

71.5 -2.9 42.5 29 58.7 -3.1 34.3 28.2 41.9 0.1

72.8 1.9 42.6 30.3 59.8 1.8 34.5 28.4 42.6 1.6

75 3.1 44 31.1 61.8 3.4 35.2 29 43.8 2.9

79 5.3 46.4 32.7 64.2 3.8 36.6 29.7 44.9 2.4

84.1 6.4 49.4 34.7 67.2 4.8 38.3 30.6 46.1 2.7

1094.7 2.6 44.1 -0.8 1050.6 2.7 85.4 -6.4 204 2.6 47.2 123.7 33 26.8 3.7 67.8 1.1 186.9 4.8 112.7 4.8 193.6 3.6 55.8 4.5 11.5 0.4 106.2 3.4

1076.3 -1.7 42.3 -4.1 1034 -1.6 72.7 -14.8 200.8 -1.6 45.8 121.9 33.1 26.3 -1.8 66.5 -1.9 182.6 -2.3 116.4 3.3 199.6 3.1 51.4 -7.9 11.8 2.8 105.9 -0.3

1009.2 -6.2 38.1 -10 971.1 -6.1 54.9 -24.5 186 -7.4 40.6 115.2 30.2 25 -4.9 63.1 -5.2 169 -7.4 117.6 1 190.3 -4.6 48.3 -6.1 12.1 2.6 104.8 -1

995.3 -1.4 37.4 -1.9 957.9 -1.4 49 -10.7 181.7 -2.3 39.2 112.7 29.5 23.9 -4.8 60.8 -3.5 165.7 -2 119.9 1.9 190.7 0.2 48.7 0.8 12.8 6 104.7 -0.1

999.8 0.5 38.1 2.1 961.6 0.4 47.8 -2.6 182.6 0.5 39.9 111.7 30.2 24.2 1.6 59.9 -1.5 169 1.9 122.3 2.1 189.5 -0.6 49.5 1.6 12 -5.9 104.8 0

1029.4 3 39.6 3.8 989.8 2.9 49.2 3 188.8 3.4 41.7 114.5 31.8 25.2 3.7 61.4 2.4 179.5 6.3 126.8 3.7 191.4 1 49.9 0.8 11.9 -1 105.7 0.9

1068.3 3.8 41 3.4 1027.3 3.8 53.8 9.2 195.1 3.3 43.4 117.6 33.3 25.8 2.5 62.8 2.4 194 8.1 130.9 3.3 194.9 1.8 50.5 1.3 11.9 -0.6 107.6 1.8

83684.2 83618.1 2037.6 2063.4 1.7 1.3 1093.4 1121.1 4.1 2.5 3.8 5.9 18042 10247 12556 5554 5486 4693

80828.5 2085.3 1.1 1119.1 -0.2 10.5 4696 3829 867

82650.7 2107.6 1.1 1121 0.2 11.8 5220 4655 565

84513 2131.5 1.1 1126.5 0.5 11.1 8098 7080 1018

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

68

924.7 2 43.2 -4.9 881.6 2.4 66 7.4 173.4 1 40 107.4 25.9 23.1 2.5 57.4 4.8 148.8 -0.9 93.6 4.7 169.9 3 45.7 0.7 11.1 7 92.6 2.6

967.5 4.6 44.1 2.2 923.4 4.7 74.2 12.5 181.7 4.8 42 113.5 26.2 23.8 3 59.5 3.7 153.4 3 97.3 4 179.4 5.6 47.5 4 11.2 1.2 95.4 3

1022.8 5.7 45.3 2.7 977.4 5.9 84.4 13.7 192.8 6.1 44.7 120.1 28 24.7 3.9 63.7 7.1 165.7 8 102.2 5 183.6 2.4 49.9 4.9 11.8 5.2 98.7 3.5

1067.5 4.4 44.5 -1.9 1023 4.7 91.2 8 198.8 3.1 46.2 122.3 30.3 25.8 4.6 67 5.2 178.3 7.6 107.5 5.2 186.8 1.8 53.4 7.1 11.4 -3.5 102.7 4.1

66251.2 1812.3 2.8 934 1.7 5.1 27587 22304 5283

70646 1876.3 3.5 963.3 3.1 4.4 32387 26186 6201

77366.6 1946.4 3.7 1007.5 4.6 3.5 33902 26861 7040

81895.5 2002.7 2.9 1050.4 4.3 3.1 30379 24302 6077

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

87870.3 91631.0 2159.8 2197.3 1.3 1.7 1140.4 1157.5 1.2 1.5 9.9 8.6 15782 20462 13306 16758 2476 3704

P a l m B a y – Me l b o u r n e – T itu s vi l l e

P r o fi l e s The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is comprised of Brevard County only. Typically known as “Florida’s Space Coast,” this area is home to the Kennedy Space Center. Located in the central part of Florida’s east coast, the region is home to Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, Patrick Air Force Base, and government contractors such as Harris Corporation.

Like much of Florida, this area is growing fast; Port Canaveral is now a leading cruise-ship port.

Quick Facts:

• Population estimate of 536,357 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• A civilian labor force of 269,217 in September 2010 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 11.8% as of September 2010, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 31,864 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• Brevard County Schools – 8535 employees • Harris Corporation – 6391 employees

• United Space Alliance – 6300 employees • Health First, Inc. – 6000 employees • 45th Space Wing – 4174 employees

• Space Gateway Support – 3000 employees • Brevard County – 2500 employees

• Wuesthoff Health System, Inc. – 2400 employees • Northrop Grumman Corporation – 2000 employees • The Boeing Co. – 1962 employees • NASA – 1577 employees

Source: Economic Development of Florida’s Space Coast

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is expected to see moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 3.5 percent each year. Per capita income levels should average 32.2. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.8 percent, the highest in the state. Average annual wage levels should be at 49.7.

Population growth is expected to be an average of 0.3 percent, and the Gross Metro Product level is expected to be 14,908.80 (Mill).

Employment growth is forecasted to average 0.4 percent each year. The metro will be seeing an average unemployment rate of 11.7 percent.

Education and Health Services is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 1.8 percent growth annually. Trade, Transportation, and Utilities and Other Services sectors follow with average growth rates of 0.8 percent. The Leisure, Financial, Construction and Mining sectors are the only sectors that will experience declines, with annual growth rates of -0.1, -1.3, and -1.8 percent respectively.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s AARP helps Brevard seniors find jobs • Brevard County’s AARP set-up a new program to help retirees find new jobs. So far, AARP has placed 91 seniors in permanent jobs.

• As an incentive for employers, the program funds the first two weeks of seniors’ employment. The Department of Labor funds the program that started in 2003.

• Currently, 250 seniors are being paid minimum wage to work at local non-profits. AARP hopes that this experience will lead to more permanent positions.

Source: Florida Today, July 27, 2010

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

69

P a l m B a y – Me l b o u r n e – T itu s vi l l e

Labor Department announces $15M training grant for shuttle workers • Nine thousand space program workers will be facing layoffs. The grant is supposed to help fund the training and job seeking for 3,200 employees.

• The grant was awarded to the Brevard Workforce Development Board. Officials say this represents just the first step to stabilizing the economy.

• Obama’s budget proposal includes another $2 billion for the Kennedy Space Center. His plan is currently stalled in Congress, so the Kennedy Space Center will not see that money for months, if at all.

Source: Orlando Sentinel, August 3, 2010 Port sees healthy budget plan • Canaveral Port Authorities released the new budget plan for 2011. It is 22% larger than this year’s budget.

• The port does not collect taxes. Its revenues are generated through tariffs, leases, and other business transactions.

• The Port’s CEO says the increased budget is a result of prior infrastructure investment. The budget is also credited to the large-capacity cruise ships and increased cargo loads.

Source: Florida Today, August 19, 2010

70

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

Titusville’s Searstown Mall loses another large tenant • Fred’s discount center will close after it sells the rest of its merchandise. It will vacate a 21,713 square-foot space.

• The mall has suffered the losses of two sitdown restaurants as a result of many consumers preparing for layoffs at the Space Coast.

• Many tenants fear the closing of Fred’s Inc. will trigger the closing of surrounding stores in the mall.

Source: Florida Today, September 8, 2010 Attractive business serves to attract • The 28 year-old annual contest, Building a More Beautiful Brevard, has begun with hopes of encouraging business owners to make their businesses more attractive.

• Winners are selected from three categories: major renovation, new major landscaping and landscape maintenance. These improvements had to be done between June 2009 and June 2010.

• The Economic Development Commission of Florida’s Space Coast claims that a better looking community will serve as a recruiter for new or relocating businesses.

Source: Florida Today, September 9, 2010

P a l m B a y – Me l b o u r n e – T itu s vi l l e Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Providing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.5

1

1.5

Florida & Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Unemployment Rate 14.0%

16000.0

13000.0

6.0%

12000.0

4.0% 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Palm Bay Unemployment Rate

11000.0 10000.0

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Payroll Employment (Thousands)

210.0 200.0 190.0 180.0 170.0

(Millions 2000 $)

14000.0

8.0%

220.0

3

15000.0

10.0%

2.0%

2.5

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Gross Metro Product

(percent)

12.0%

2

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Palm Bay Payroll Employment

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Personal Income 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

71

P a l m B a y – Me l b o u r n e – T itu s vi l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

October 2010 Forecast

2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

20.3 2.8 9.4 10.9 16.9 4.7 38 31.7 47.9 3.3

20.3 1.6 9.3 10.9 16.8 3.8 38 31.5 48.2 2.7

20.3 1 9.2 11 16.8 3.2 38 31.4 48.6 2.7

20.4 0.9 9.3 11.1 16.8 2.8 38.2 31.5 49 2.9

20.6 1.4 9.4 11.2 16.9 0 38.5 31.7 49.3 2.9

20.8 2.5 9.5 11.3 17 1.1 38.8 31.8 49.6 2.7

21.1 3.9 9.6 11.4 17.2 2.6 39.4 32.1 49.9 2.5

21.3 4.7 9.8 11.6 17.4 3.3 39.9 32.4 50.1 2.4

21.6 5.3 9.9 11.7 17.5 3.8 40.4 32.7 50.4 2.3

21.9 5.7 10 11.9 17.7 4.1 40.8 33 50.7 2.4

22.2 5.4 10.2 12 17.8 3.8 41.2 33.1 51.1 2.5

22.5 5.4 10.4 12.1 18 3.7 41.7 33.4 51.5 2.7

22.8 5.4 10.5 12.3 18.2 3.7 42.1 33.6 51.8 2.8

23.1 5.5 10.7 12.5 18.4 3.8 42.6 33.8 52.2 2.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

72

193.1 -1.3 20.9 -3.3 172.2 -1 8.7 -9.3 32.5 -1.7 5.5 24.2 2.8 2.8 -5.7 7.5 -5.6 31.5 -3 31.5 2 20.8 -0.1 7.5 2 7 10.9 22.6 -1

190.1 -2.1 20.5 -3.2 169.6 -2 8.5 -7.2 32.5 -1.4 5.4 24.2 2.8 2.8 -3.1 7.4 -5.8 29.3 -8 31.7 1.9 20.7 -0.5 7.5 2.8 6.6 2.6 22.6 -0.2

186.8 -3.3 20.5 -2.8 166.3 -3.4 8.4 -6.4 32.4 -0.7 5.4 24.1 2.8 2.8 -0.5 7.4 -3.8 26.4 -17.7 31.7 2.3 20.6 0.1 7.5 3.5 6.6 0.7 22.6 -0.5

186.8 -3.5 20.6 -2.9 166.2 -3.6 8.3 -4.9 32.3 -0.1 5.5 23.9 2.8 2.8 1.5 7.4 -2.6 26.2 -17.9 31.9 2 20.6 0 7.5 2.1 6.6 -8.4 22.6 0.1

187.4 -3 20.4 -2.1 167 -3.1 8.3 -4.3 32.4 -0.3 5.5 23.9 2.8 2.8 1.5 7.4 -1.3 26.8 -14.8 32.1 2.1 20.5 -1.1 7.5 0.5 6.6 -5.6 22.5 -0.6

188.2 -1 20.7 0.8 167.6 -1.2 8.3 -2.7 32.6 0.5 5.6 24 2.9 2.9 2.1 7.4 0.9 27 -8.1 32.3 2.1 20.5 -1.2 7.6 0.7 6.5 -1.4 22.5 -0.3

190.4 1.9 20.9 2 169.5 1.9 8.3 -0.5 32.8 1.5 5.7 24.2 2.9 2.9 3.1 7.5 0.7 28.4 7.8 32.4 2.2 20.5 -0.4 7.6 0.4 6.5 -1.6 22.5 -0.1

191.8 2.7 21.2 3 170.6 2.7 8.4 1.5 33.1 2.6 5.7 24.4 3 2.9 3.8 7.5 0.8 28.8 9.8 32.6 2.3 20.6 0.2 7.5 0.2 6.5 -1.6 22.6 0.1

193.4 3.2 21.4 4.7 172 3 8.5 3 33.4 3.1 5.8 24.5 3 3 4.2 7.5 1.5 29.5 9.9 32.8 2.1 20.7 0.8 7.6 0.3 6.4 -1.9 22.6 0.7

195 3.6 21.6 4.6 173.4 3.5 8.7 4.8 33.7 3.2 5.9 24.6 3 3 4.5 7.5 1.2 30.2 11.9 32.9 1.8 20.8 1.4 7.6 0.3 6.4 -2.1 22.7 0.9

196.6 3.2 21.9 4.5 174.7 3.1 8.9 6.8 33.8 3.1 5.9 24.7 3.1 3 4.1 7.5 0.9 30.9 8.8 32.9 1.6 20.8 1.5 7.6 0.4 6.4 -1.7 22.8 1

198.4 3.5 22 4.1 176.4 3.4 9.1 7.8 34.1 3 6 24.9 3.1 3 3.4 7.5 0.8 31.8 10.2 33.2 1.6 20.9 1.2 7.6 0.5 6.4 -1.4 22.9 1.3

200 3.5 22.1 3.5 177.9 3.5 9.3 8.7 34.3 2.9 6.1 25 3.1 3.1 3 7.6 0.4 32.6 10.7 33.3 1.5 20.9 1 7.6 0.4 6.4 -1.3 23 1.5

201.8 3.5 22.2 2.9 179.5 3.5 9.5 9.3 34.5 2.5 6.1 25.1 3.2 3.1 2.5 7.5 -0.3 33.7 11.8 33.4 1.3 20.9 0.8 7.6 0.2 6.3 -1.2 23.1 1.6

14343.4 533.9 -0.4 267.9 -0.1 11.7 1003 931 71

14366.9 533.7 -0.3 268.3 -0.4 12.8 1040 1023 16

14436.0 533.7 -0.2 268.6 -0.4 12.7 1214 1213 1

14516.6 533.8 -0.1 268.6 0.2 12.8 1542 1485 56

14613.2 534.1 0 268.8 0.3 12.7 1929 1854 75

14747.1 534.5 0.1 269 0.3 12.4 2373 2244 129

14870.1 534.9 0.2 269.2 0.2 12.2 2887 2694 193

15008.1 535.6 0.3 269.2 0.2 11.9 3417 3109 308

15156.3 536.4 0.4 269.3 0.2 11.6 3894 3545 348

15311.8 537.3 0.5 269.1 0 11.2 4094 3717 377

15441.5 538.5 0.7 269.5 0.1 10.8 4271 3842 429

15591.3 539.9 0.8 269.8 0.2 10.3 4561 4075 486

15734.3 541.4 0.9 270.3 0.4 9.9 4725 4195 530

15873.1 543.1 1.1 270.8 0.6 9.3 4809 4222 587

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

P a l m B a y – Me l b o u r n e – T itu s vi l l e

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

October 2010 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

15.1 5.7 7.5 7.5 14.3 3.6 29.9 28.3 37.7 4.9

16.3 8.1 8.2 8.1 15.1 5.4 31.5 29.2 39.8 5.5

17.6 7.8 8.9 8.7 15.8 4.7 33.4 30 41.6 4.5

18.9 7.5 9.4 9.5 16.5 4.6 35.6 31.1 42.8 2.9

19.5 3.2 9.5 10 16.6 0.5 36.5 31 43.7 2.1

19.9 1.9 9.5 10.4 16.4 -1.4 37 30.5 45 3

19.7 -0.6 9.2 10.5 16.2 -0.8 36.8 30.3 46.3 3

20.2 2.3 9.3 10.9 16.6 2.2 37.8 31 47.8 3.1

20.5 1.5 9.3 11.1 16.9 1.8 38.4 31.6 49.1 2.8

21.5 4.9 9.8 11.7 17.5 3.5 40.1 32.6 50.3 2.4

22.7 5.4 10.4 12.2 18.1 3.7 41.9 33.5 51.6 2.7

213.8 -1.2 24.1 -1.8 189.7 -1.1 15.4 -15 36.9 -1.5 5.6 28 3.3 2.9 -2.6 8.6 0.3 36.9 -1.1 29.3 4 22.9 1.5 8 -1 6.2 0.5 22.8 1.1

207.4 -3 23.7 -1.6 183.7 -3.2 13 -15.4 35.5 -3.8 5.5 26.8 3.1 2.9 2.3 8.3 -3.4 34.5 -6.3 30.6 4.7 21.9 -4.2 7.9 -1.5 6.2 0 22.8 0

196.5 -5.2 21.9 -7.9 174.6 -4.9 10 -23.1 33.2 -6.4 5.3 25.1 2.9 3.1 4.6 7.9 -4.7 32.3 -6.6 30.9 0.8 20.9 -4.3 7.4 -6.5 6.3 1.4 22.8 -0.3

192.5 -2 20.9 -4.4 171.6 -1.7 8.7 -12.8 32.5 -2.2 5.4 24.2 2.8 2.8 -8.2 7.6 -4.8 31.2 -3.3 31.4 1.5 20.7 -1.3 7.4 0.7 6.8 8.8 22.6 -0.7

187.3 -2.7 20.5 -1.8 166.8 -2.8 8.3 -4.6 32.4 -0.2 5.5 24 2.8 2.8 1.1 7.4 -1.7 26.6 -14.8 32 2.1 20.6 -0.5 7.5 1.7 6.6 -3.8 22.5 -0.3

192.6 2.8 21.3 3.6 171.4 2.8 8.5 2.2 33.3 2.6 5.8 24.4 3 2.9 3.9 7.5 1 29.2 9.9 32.7 2.1 20.7 0.5 7.6 0.3 6.5 -1.8 22.6 0.4

199.2 3.4 22.1 3.8 177.1 3.4 9.2 8.2 34.2 2.9 6 24.9 3.1 3 3.3 7.5 0.5 32.3 10.4 33.2 1.5 20.9 1.1 7.6 0.4 6.4 -1.4 22.9 1.3

12285 12991.4 13965.4 14576.4 14405.8 14324.6 14017.2 14302.5 14578.2 15086.5 504.8 517 526.2 530.8 534.5 536.2 536.1 534.2 534 536 1.9 2.4 1.8 0.9 0.7 0.3 0 -0.3 0 0.4 242 247.6 258.3 263 264.4 268.4 268.8 268.5 268.8 269.2 1.6 2.3 4.3 1.8 0.5 1.5 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 5.2 4.4 3.6 3.2 4.2 6.5 10.5 12.2 12.7 11.7 6111 8211 8478 5349 2824 1774 995 1183 1764 3573 5574 6309 7198 4371 2209 1282 885 1147 1699 3267 537 1902 1280 977 615 492 110 36 65 307

15660 540.8 0.9 270.1 0.3 10.1 4592 4084 508

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

196.9 1.9 22.8 -0.5 174.1 2.3 13 2.3 34.2 -1.6 4.6 26.3 3.3 2.8 0 7.3 0.7 33.8 3.2 26.7 5.7 20.2 1.7 8.2 8.4 5.7 1.2 22.1 2.6

204 3.6 23.6 3.8 180.4 3.6 14.8 13.6 35.5 3.7 4.7 27.2 3.6 2.8 -0.9 7.8 5.8 34.5 2.2 26.8 0.3 21.1 4.4 8.4 1.6 5.9 3.9 22.9 3.3

211 3.4 23.9 1.2 187.1 3.7 17.2 16.2 37.1 4.5 5.2 28 3.8 2.9 6 8.4 7.8 36 4.3 27.3 1.8 21.8 3.3 8.1 -2.8 6.1 1.9 22.2 -2.8

216.4 2.5 24.6 2.7 191.8 2.5 18.1 5 37.4 1 5.5 28.3 3.6 2.9 0.1 8.6 2.4 37.3 3.6 28.2 3.1 22.5 3.3 8.1 -0.8 6.2 1.7 22.6 1.7

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

73

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

P r o fi l e s The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is comprised of Escambia County and Santa Rosa County. Located in the northwest corner of the state bordering Alabama, this region is home to the Pensacola Naval Air Station, Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval Aviation. This area has been referred to as the “Cradle of Naval Aviation.”

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 455,102 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Escambia County population estimate of 303,343 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Santa Rosa County population estimate of 151,759 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• A civilian labor force of 215,011 in September 2010 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 10.6% as of September 2010, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 22,689 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Database)

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Local Government – 15,790 employees • Federal Government – 7,403 employees • State Government – 5,970 employees

• Sacred Heart Health System – 5,000 employees • Baptist Heath Care – 3,163 employees • Lakeview – 2,000 employees

• Gulf Power Company – 1,400 employees • Solutia, Inc. – 1,400 employees

• West Florida Hospital – 1,300 employees

• University of West Florida – 1,231 employees Source: Greater Pensacola Chamber of Commerce

74

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is expected to see low levels of growth in the economic indicators, relative to other metro areas. Personal income growth is expected to average 3.7 percent each year. The per capita income level is expected to be 29.5. The average annual wage growth rate should be at 2.3 percent.

The average annual wage level is expected to be 42.4.

Population growth will be at a rate of 0.5 percent. The Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 11,878.00 (Mill).

Employment growth is expected to average 1.2 percent each year. The unemployment rate will average 10.1 percent, one of the lowest in the state.

Professional and Business Services will be the fastest growing sector in Pensacola, with 4.1 percent average annual growth. Education and Health Services follows with a growth rate of 1.7 percent.

The Construction and Mining sector and Information sectors are expected to decrease with average an annual growth rate of -0.2 percent.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Beach hotels get boost, but not thanks to tourists • Hotel occupancy at Pensacola hotels increased by 15.5 percent in June according to Smith Travel Research, however, the average daily rate for area hotels dropped 7.4 percent in the same month.

• The numbers increased due to visits from government officials, national media crews, the President, and BP workers. The numbers are expected to decrease in the upcoming months as tourists stay away and temporary occupants leave the area.

• Other businesses in the area did not benefit for the boost in hotel occupancy.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, July 24, 2010

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Escambia, Santa Rosa schools’ grades drop • Students in elementary and middle schools at Escambia and Santa Rosa counties received lower scores for the Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test.

• Most schools dropped or received the same grade as last year. Only one school in Escambia County received an F – Montclair Elementary.

• Grades were delayed in their release and there were statewide concerns about flaws in the scoring process done by NCS Pearson. Auditors hired by the state found no flaws.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, August 7, 2010 ECUA calls for 34% rate increase over 3 years • The Emerald Coast Utilities Authority is proposing a budget that includes an increase of 34 percent to water and sewer rates over the next three years; and garbage rates 3 percent higher this year, both changes effective next month.

• The ECUA board argues that the increase in water and sewer rates is necessary to fund major improvements to the outdated utility system over the next five years.

• Forecasts for the summer show 30 percent down on Pensacola Beach and 40 to 50 percent decrease in sales in Perdido Key. • Few of affected businesses in Pensacola have received payments from BP’s recovery fund.

Most are anxiously expecting them to keep their businesses afloat.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, September 12, 2010 Oil spill: Few claims paid since GCCF takeover • Since August 23, the Gulf Coast Claims Facility assumed the responsibility to compensate those affected by the BP oil spill.

• The facility has only paid out 22 percent of the claims submitted or about $102.6 million in 12,666 claim payments. Most claims are under review or more information has been requested.

• So far, Louisiana has received $43.7 million, followed by Florida, with $25.7 million.

Okaloosa County in Florida received $6.7 million, Escambia County has received $4.7 million and Santa Rosa has received $1.9 million.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, September 13, 2010

• The budget also includes about $700,000 to give a 1% raise to each of ECUA’s 550 employees as well as funds available for merit-based raises.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, September 9, 2010 Beaches’ retail sales lacking luster • According to the Santa Rosa Island Authority, only 10 out of 125 businesses in Pensacola Beach showed retail sales growth for June and July.

The worse decrease for July was as much as 50 percent compared to July of last year.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

75

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Providing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Pensacola Unemployment Rate

0.4

0.6

175.0

12500.0 12000.0 11500.0 11000.0 10500.0 10000.0 9500.0 9000.0 8500.0

8.0% 6.0%

165.0

4.0%

160.0

2.0%

155.0

0.0%

76

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Pensacola Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

1.2

1.4

(Millions 2000 $)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Pensacola Real Personal Income

170.0

150.0

1

Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product

Pensacola Payroll Employment (Thousands)

0.8

-2.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

October 2010 Forecast

2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

15.9 3.8 7.2 8.7 13.3 5.7 34.8 29 41 2.6

16 2.8 7.2 8.8 13.3 5 35 29.1 41.3 2.5

16.1 2.8 7.2 8.9 13.3 5 35.2 29.1 41.6 2.4

16.2 2.4 7.3 8.9 13.3 4.3 35.4 29.2 41.8 2.5

16.3 2.6 7.3 9 13.4 1.2 35.6 29.3 42.1 2.5

16.4 2.9 7.4 9 13.5 1.5 35.9 29.4 42.3 2.3

16.6 3.3 7.5 9.2 13.6 1.9 36.2 29.5 42.5 2.1

16.8 3.8 7.5 9.3 13.7 2.4 36.5 29.7 42.7 2

17 4.3 7.6 9.4 13.8 2.8 36.9 29.9 42.9 1.9

17.2 4.6 7.7 9.5 13.9 3 37.2 30.1 43.1 2

17.4 4.5 7.8 9.6 14 2.9 37.5 30.1 43.4 2.1

17.5 4.5 7.9 9.7 14.1 2.8 37.8 30.3 43.6 2.2

17.8 4.5 7.9 9.8 14.2 2.8 38.2 30.4 43.9 2.3

18 4.5 8 10 14.3 2.8 38.5 30.6 44.1 2.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

159.6 1.2 5.1 -1.1 154.6 1.3 10.1 -2.9 29.9 -1 5.3 20.3 4.3 2.9 -5.5 8.3 -2.3 19.8 1.1 28.9 2.6 17.7 4.2 7 2.7 7.4 12.5 22.5 1.3

159.2 0.6 5.1 0.6 154.1 0.6 9.9 -3.3 29.9 0.3 5.2 20.3 4.3 2.9 -5.2 8.2 -4 20 2.1 29.1 2.2 17.7 0.3 7 2.4 7 7.7 22.4 -0.3

159 0.8 5.1 0.4 153.9 0.8 9.7 -4.1 29.7 -0.2 5.2 20.2 4.3 2.9 -1.6 8.2 -3 20.2 3.2 29.1 2.4 17.6 -0.3 7 2.5 7 4.6 22.4 1

159.2 0 5.1 1.4 154.1 -0.1 9.6 -4.6 29.7 -0.9 5.2 20 4.4 2.9 0.6 8.3 -0.7 20.4 3.5 29.2 2.7 17.6 -1.1 7 1.1 6.9 -8.6 22.4 0.1

159.6 -0.1 5.1 1.3 154.4 -0.1 9.6 -4.9 29.8 -0.4 5.3 20 4.4 2.9 1.2 8.3 -0.2 20.7 4.3 29.4 1.6 17.5 -1.2 7 0.4 6.9 -5.8 22.3 -1.2

160.2 0.6 5.2 1.8 155 0.6 9.6 -3.2 30 0.4 5.3 20.1 4.5 2.9 1.8 8.3 1.8 21 4.7 29.6 1.7 17.5 -1.2 7 0.5 6.9 -1.7 22.3 -0.8

160.8 1.1 5.2 2.4 155.6 1.1 9.6 -1.1 30.2 1.5 5.4 20.2 4.5 3 2.7 8.4 1.7 21.2 4.7 29.6 1.8 17.5 -0.5 7 0.2 6.8 -1.9 22.2 -0.7

161.6 1.5 5.3 2.8 156.3 1.5 9.7 0.9 30.4 2.5 5.4 20.4 4.6 3 3.4 8.4 1.8 21.3 4.1 29.8 1.8 17.6 0.1 7 0.1 6.8 -2 22.3 -0.5

162.4 1.8 5.3 3 157.1 1.8 9.9 2.3 30.6 2.9 5.5 20.5 4.6 3 3.8 8.5 2.2 21.6 4.3 29.9 1.6 17.6 0.7 7 0.2 6.8 -2.2 22.3 0

163.4 2 5.3 3 158 1.9 10 4.1 30.9 2.9 5.5 20.6 4.7 3.1 4.1 8.5 2.2 21.9 4.4 30 1.3 17.7 1.2 7.1 0.1 6.7 -2.4 22.3 0.2

164.3 2.2 5.4 3 158.9 2.1 10.2 6 31 2.8 5.6 20.6 4.7 3.1 3.7 8.5 1.9 22.3 5.2 29.9 1.1 17.7 1.3 7.1 0.3 6.7 -2.1 22.3 0.4

165.4 2.3 5.4 2.8 160 2.3 10.4 7 31.2 2.7 5.6 20.8 4.7 3.1 3 8.6 1.6 22.7 6.4 30.1 1.1 17.8 1.1 7.1 0.4 6.7 -1.8 22.4 0.6

166.3 2.4 5.4 2.4 160.9 2.4 10.6 7.9 31.4 2.6 5.7 20.9 4.8 3.1 2.6 8.6 1.4 23.1 6.9 30.2 1 17.8 0.8 7.1 0.2 6.7 -1.7 22.5 0.8

167.2 2.3 5.4 2 161.8 2.4 10.8 8.4 31.5 2.2 5.7 20.9 4.8 3.1 2.2 8.6 1.3 23.4 7 30.2 0.8 17.8 0.6 7.1 0.1 6.6 -1.5 22.5 1

11535.4 456.3 0.2 212.8 1 10.6 1131 1042 89

11562.9 456.4 0.1 212.4 0.1 10.7 1096 1035 61

11612.6 456.6 0.1 212.1 -1.1 10.6 1129 1080 49

11652.8 457 0.1 211.5 -0.8 10.6 1225 1160 65

11706.6 457.6 0.3 211.1 -0.8 10.6 1348 1283 65

11790.1 458.3 0.4 210.7 -0.8 10.5 1458 1389 70

11860.5 459.1 0.5 210.2 -0.9 10.3 1638 1568 70

11942.5 459.9 0.6 209.7 -0.9 10.1 1807 1728 79

12033.7 460.8 0.7 209.2 -0.9 9.8 1998 1910 88

12130.5 461.8 0.8 208.5 -1 9.6 2097 2004 93

12203.0 462.9 0.8 208.6 -0.8 9.2 2186 2073 113

12297.1 464.1 0.9 208.7 -0.5 8.9 2325 2192 133

12387.0 465.3 1 208.8 -0.2 8.6 2402 2256 146

12472.5 466.5 1 209 0.2 8.3 2436 2273 163

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

77

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

October 2010 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

11.3 4.4 5.5 5.8 10.7 2.3 25.9 24.6 31.5 3

12.1 7.9 5.9 6.2 11.2 5.1 27.6 25.5 33.3 6

13 7.2 6.3 6.7 11.7 4.1 29.2 26.2 34.6 3.9

14.1 8.6 6.8 7.4 12.3 5.7 31.4 27.5 36.4 5.1

14.7 4 6.9 7.8 12.5 1.3 32.6 27.7 37.2 2.3

15.1 2.8 6.9 8.2 12.4 -0.5 33.3 27.4 38.5 3.4

15.3 1.2 6.9 8.4 12.6 1.1 33.6 27.6 39.9 3.7

15.8 3.5 7.1 8.7 13 3.4 34.7 28.5 41 2.6

16.2 2.7 7.3 8.9 13.4 3 35.5 29.3 41.9 2.4

16.9 4 7.6 9.3 13.7 2.6 36.7 29.8 42.8 2

17.7 4.5 7.9 9.8 14.1 2.8 38 30.4 43.7 2.3

173.5 0.1 7 -5.3 166.5 0.3 14.7 -3.9 33.8 2.5 6.7 22.2 4.9 3.6 -5.8 9.2 3.1 21.8 -4.3 28.7 4.2 17.7 -0.1 7.8 -0.4 6.6 -2.5 22.7 1.1

166.1 -4.3 6.5 -7.9 159.6 -4.1 12.7 -14.1 32.3 -4.5 6.1 21.3 4.9 3.5 -2.6 8.8 -3.6 20.3 -6.6 28.2 -1.5 17.6 -0.4 7.3 -6.3 6.5 -0.8 22.3 -1.7

158.4 -4.6 5.3 -18 153.1 -4.1 10.7 -15.9 30.3 -6.3 5.4 20.2 4.6 3.2 -8.9 8.6 -3.1 19.5 -4.3 28.1 -0.3 17.2 -2.1 6.8 -6.3 6.5 0.4 22.2 -0.6

159 0.4 5.1 -4.5 153.9 0.5 10.1 -5.5 29.9 -1.3 5.2 20.2 4.4 2.9 -7.7 8.3 -2.8 19.8 1.8 28.7 2 17.7 2.6 7 1.9 7.2 9.5 22.4 0.8

159.5 0.3 5.1 1.2 154.4 0.3 9.7 -4.2 29.8 -0.3 5.3 20.1 4.4 2.9 0.5 8.3 -0.6 20.6 3.9 29.3 2.1 17.5 -0.9 7 1.1 6.9 -3.1 22.3 -0.2

162 1.6 5.3 2.8 156.8 1.6 9.8 1.6 30.5 2.4 5.5 20.4 4.6 3 3.5 8.4 2 21.5 4.4 29.8 1.6 17.6 0.4 7 0.2 6.8 -2.1 22.3 -0.2

165.8 2.3 5.4 2.5 160.4 2.3 10.5 7.3 31.3 2.6 5.7 20.8 4.8 3.1 2.9 8.6 1.5 22.8 6.4 30.1 1 17.8 1 7.1 0.2 6.7 -1.8 22.4 0.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

78

158.8 2.5 7.4 1.1 151.4 2.6 10.8 -2.8 30.2 1 5.3 20.8 4.1 4.1 -2 6.8 4.6 19.6 4.7 26.8 6.2 16.6 6.1 7.9 2.6 6.9 -0.5 21.6 0

163.2 2.8 7.3 -1.3 155.9 3 11.6 7.8 31.2 3.1 5.6 21.1 4.5 3.9 -4.5 7.5 9.8 21.1 7.4 26.7 -0.4 17.4 4.7 7.9 0.9 6.7 -2.2 21.8 0.9

169 3.6 7.5 3.1 161.5 3.6 13.9 19.4 33.1 6.1 6.2 21.9 5 3.8 -4.7 8.2 9.9 22.6 7.3 26 -2.9 17.3 -0.9 7.8 -1.6 6.7 -0.5 22.2 2

173.4 2.6 7.4 -1.4 166 2.8 15.4 10.4 33 -0.2 6.2 21.8 5 3.8 0.7 8.9 8.4 22.7 0.6 27.5 5.9 17.7 2.5 7.8 0 6.7 0.4 22.5 1.4

9957 10402.6 11087.2 11501.9 11532.6 11375.9 11133.7 11489.8 11690.5 11991.8 12339.9 434.4 440.5 445.4 449.4 450.8 453.3 455.3 456.3 457.4 460.4 464.7 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.9 191.1 193.8 201.5 206 209.4 208.9 210.5 213.2 211.3 209.4 208.8 2.1 1.4 4 2.2 1.7 -0.2 0.8 1.3 -0.9 -0.9 -0.3 4.8 4.6 3.7 3.1 3.7 5.8 9.6 10.8 10.6 10 8.8 4424 4711 3764 2770 2464 1317 1025 1522 1290 1885 2337 3556 3629 3284 2322 1780 1125 973 1303 1228 1803 2198 868 1082 480 448 684 192 52 219 62 83 139

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

T a l l aha s s ee

P r o fi l e s The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla counties. It is located between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State University and Florida A&M University.

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 300,413 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Gadsden County population estimate of 47,474 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Jefferson County population estimate of 14,010 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Leon County population estimate of 265,714 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Wakulla County population estimate of 32,815 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • An MSA civilian labor force of 197,249 in September 2010 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 8.6% as of September 2010, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 16,976 unemployed people for the entire region.

(Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • State Government (all departments) – 46,800 employees • Florida State University- 8,784 employees • Tallahassee Memorial Healthcare – 3,480 employees • Florida A&M University – 3,468 employees • City of Tallahassee – 2,633 employees • Federal Government (all departments) – 2,100 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 2,000 employees • Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – 1,900 employees • Leon County – 1522 employees

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Tallahassee MSA is expected to show minimal growth in the economic indicators relative to other metro areas in the state. The area should see personal income growth averaging 3.6 percent each year. Per capita income levels should average 29.1. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.7 percent, and the average annual wage level will be 42.2. Population growth will be at 0.8 percent, and the Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 11,568.55(Mill).

Employment growth is expected to be 0.4 percent each year, one of the lowest in the state. The unemployment rate, however, will average 7.7 percent, the second lowest in the state.

Professional and Business Services will be the fastest growing sector in Tallahassee, averaging 3.3 percent annually. Education and Health Services and Manufacturing sectors follow with growth rates of 2.1 percent and 1.7 percent respectively. The State and Local Government, construction and Mining, and Information sectors are expected to decline with average annual growth rates of -0.4 percent and -0.7, and -1.1 percent respectively.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Researcher wins NIH grant to study proteins linked to genetic diseases • Dr. Scott Stagg of Florida State University was awarded a $1.3 million, five-year grant by the National Institute of Health.

• Dr. Stagg is an assistant professor in the Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry.

• The grant will fund Stagg’s research into COPII proteins, which can mutate to cause rare genetic diseases.

Source: Florida State University, July 28, 2010

• Tallahassee Community College – 1090 employees Source: Tallahassee Economic Development Council and Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation (CES)

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

79

T a l l aha s s ee

Effort under way to lure aerospace business • “Project Rock” is a city of Tallahassee endeavor to attract to the area a lucrative aerospace company that has contracted with NASA. • The company would create 25 jobs with average salaries well above the average for Tallahassee in its first three years, and is estimated to spend $12 million in staffing and product development in the first two years.

• City officials are currently looking for ways to offer incentives to the company; the name of the company has not been released.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, August 15, 2010 New FAMU facilities on horizon with construction in high gear • Florida A&M University has approximately $200 million in new facilities in either the construction or planning stages.

• Two dorms, a new science building and an addition to the recreation center are planned to be completed within the next year.

• In 2012, a new health center and educational center are planned to be completed, and in 2013 a new wing to the pharmacy building will be completed.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, September 6, 2010

80

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

Grant funds wind tunnel at $22M research center • A grant from the National Science Foundation will allow for the construction of a $3.3 million wind tunnel to be added to the Florida Center for Advanced Aero-Propulsion in Research Park.

• The facility is designed to be small enough to be operated by University professors, but large enough to attract interest from industry.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, September 11, 2010 Leon County’s property-tax rate stays put • The county’s proposed $244.1 million budget for 2011 will leave the property-tax rate at the current level.

• The current tax rate is $8.35 for every $1,000 of taxable property.

• Budget shortfalls with be filled with $4 million in funds from the county’s reserves and $6 million will be cut from the budget.

• Property values are falling, and the maintenance of current property-tax rates will cost the county about $1.8 million.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, September 15, 2010

T a l l aha s s ee Tallahassee Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Providing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.5

Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

1.5

3

13000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

11000.0 10000.0 9000.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Tallahassee Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

8000.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Tallahassee Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

175.0

4.0%

170.0

2.0%

165.0

0.0%

160.0 155.0

2.5

Tallahassee Real Gross Metro Product

Tallahassee Payroll Employment 180.0

2

12000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

1

-2.0% 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Tallahassee Payroll Employment

-4.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

81

T a l l aha s s ee

Quarterly Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

October 2010 Forecast

2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

12.4 3.6 7 5.4 10.3 5.4 34.2 28.5 40.6 2.8

12.5 2.8 7 5.4 10.4 5 34.4 28.6 40.9 2.7

12.6 2.9 7.1 5.5 10.4 5.2 34.7 28.7 41.3 2.7

12.6 2.4 7.1 5.5 10.4 4.4 34.9 28.8 41.5 2.9

12.7 2.6 7.2 5.5 10.5 1.2 35.1 28.9 41.8 2.9

12.8 3 7.3 5.6 10.5 1.6 35.4 29 42 2.8

13 3.3 7.3 5.6 10.6 1.9 35.8 29.2 42.3 2.5

13.1 3.8 7.4 5.7 10.7 2.3 36.1 29.4 42.5 2.4

13.3 4.2 7.5 5.8 10.7 2.8 36.5 29.6 42.8 2.3

13.4 4.6 7.6 5.9 10.8 3 36.8 29.7 43.1 2.4

13.5 4.5 7.6 5.9 10.9 2.9 37.1 29.9 43.4 2.5

13.7 4.6 7.7 6 11 2.9 37.5 30 43.7 2.7

13.9 4.6 7.8 6 11.1 3 37.9 30.2 44 2.8

14 4.7 7.9 6.1 11.2 3 38.2 30.4 44.3 2.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

82

171.8 0.6 3.8 -2.2 168 0.6 6.6 -5.2 22.5 0.1 3.3 17.5 1.7 3 -9.3 7.3 -2 18.4 -0.4 20.5 5.4 16.8 5.3 10.3 3.6 2.3 13.6 60.5 -1

171.4 0.4 3.8 -0.2 167.6 0.4 6.5 -4.4 22.5 0.2 3.2 17.5 1.7 3 -8.1 7.2 -3.5 18.5 -0.2 20.6 3.2 16.7 3.9 10.3 3.4 2.2 10.4 60.3 -0.6

171.2 0.5 3.8 1 167.4 0.5 6.4 -4.6 22.4 0.6 3.2 17.4 1.7 3 -3.8 7.2 -2.3 18.6 2 20.6 3.6 16.6 3.5 10.3 3.1 2.2 10.1 60.1 -1.4

171.2 -0.3 3.8 0.3 167.4 -0.3 6.3 -4.9 22.3 -0.7 3.2 17.2 1.8 3 -1.4 7.2 -1.3 18.8 2.2 20.7 2.4 16.6 1 10.3 1.1 2.2 -7.1 60 -1.4

171.3 -0.3 3.9 1.9 167.4 -0.4 6.3 -4.4 22.3 -0.8 3.3 17.2 1.8 3 1.2 7.2 -0.5 19 3.6 20.8 1.5 16.5 -1.4 10.4 0.5 2.2 -5.8 59.7 -1.3

171.8 0.3 3.9 2.4 167.9 0.2 6.3 -2.7 22.5 0 3.3 17.3 1.8 3 1.8 7.2 1.4 19.3 4.6 20.9 1.6 16.5 -1.5 10.4 0.6 2.2 -1.3 59.7 -1

172.3 0.7 3.9 3.1 168.4 0.6 6.3 -0.8 22.6 1 3.3 17.4 1.8 3.1 2.5 7.3 1.4 19.5 4.8 20.9 1.7 16.5 -0.7 10.4 0.3 2.1 -1.5 59.7 -0.7

172.9 1 4 3.5 169 0.9 6.4 1 22.8 2.1 3.4 17.5 1.8 3.1 3.2 7.3 1.6 19.6 4.3 21 1.7 16.6 -0.1 10.4 0.2 2.1 -1.6 59.7 -0.5

173.7 1.4 4 3.7 169.7 1.4 6.5 2.2 22.9 2.6 3.4 17.6 1.9 3.1 3.7 7.4 2 19.9 4.5 21.1 1.5 16.6 0.5 10.4 0.4 2.1 -1.8 59.7 0.1

174.6 1.6 4 3.7 170.5 1.5 6.6 3.7 23.1 2.7 3.4 17.7 1.9 3.2 3.9 7.4 2 20.2 4.5 21.1 1.2 16.7 1.1 10.4 0.3 2.1 -2 59.9 0.3

175.3 1.8 4.1 3.7 171.3 1.7 6.7 5.5 23.2 2.6 3.4 17.8 1.9 3.2 3.6 7.4 1.6 20.5 5.4 21.1 1 16.7 1.1 10.4 0.5 2.1 -1.7 59.9 0.5

176.3 2 4.1 3.5 172.2 1.9 6.8 6.4 23.3 2.5 3.5 17.9 1.9 3.2 2.9 7.4 1.3 20.9 6.7 21.2 1 16.7 0.9 10.4 0.6 2.1 -1.4 60.1 0.7

177.3 2 4.1 3.2 173.1 2 6.9 7.2 23.4 2.4 3.5 17.9 1.9 3.2 2.5 7.4 1.1 21.3 7.2 21.3 0.9 16.7 0.7 10.4 0.4 2.1 -1.3 60.3 0.9

178.1 2 4.1 2.9 173.9 2 7.1 7.8 23.5 2.1 3.5 18 2 3.2 2.2 7.5 1 21.6 7.3 21.3 0.7 16.7 0.5 10.4 0.2 2.1 -1.1 60.4 1

11256.4 361.9 0.4 194.9 1 8.3 775 531 243

11275.1 362 0.2 193.8 0.2 8.4 797 568 229

11315.3 362.1 0.1 192.8 -1.5 8.3 886 642 243

11350.7 362.1 0.1 191.7 -1.9 8.3 968 742 226

11398.9 362.2 0.1 190.6 -2.2 8.3 1103 873 230

11477.4 362.3 0.1 189.6 -2.1 8.2 1229 997 232

11544.5 362.5 0.1 188.6 -2.2 8.1 1411 1182 229

11620.8 363 0.3 187.7 -2.1 7.9 1602 1364 238

11705.6 363.6 0.4 186.8 -2 7.7 1816 1541 276

11797.3 364.2 0.5 185.7 -2.1 7.5 1917 1611 306

11864.5 364.8 0.6 185.8 -1.5 7.2 1991 1655 336

11954.6 365.5 0.7 185.9 -0.9 6.9 2114 1745 369

12041.7 366.4 0.8 186 -0.4 6.8 2200 1792 408

12123.9 367.3 0.9 186.1 0.2 6.6 2252 1800 452

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

T a l l aha s s ee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

October 2010 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

9 3.7 5.6 3.4 8.6 1.6 27.1 25.8 33.9 2.3

9.8 8.5 5.9 3.9 9.1 5.7 29.1 26.9 35.3 4.2

10.6 7.8 6.2 4.3 9.5 4.6 30.9 27.7 36.2 2.5

11.2 6.3 6.6 4.7 9.8 3.5 32.3 28.2 37.2 2.8

11.8 4.8 6.9 4.9 10 2 33.3 28.3 38.4 3.2

12 2.1 6.9 5.1 9.9 -1.2 33.6 27.7 39 1.5

12 -0.3 6.8 5.2 9.8 -0.5 33.3 27.3 39.4 1.2

12.3 3 7 5.4 10.1 3 34.1 28 40.5 2.8

12.7 2.7 7.2 5.5 10.4 3 35 28.8 41.7 2.8

13.2 4 7.4 5.8 10.7 2.5 36.3 29.5 42.7 2.4

13.8 4.6 7.8 6 11 3 37.7 30.1 43.8 2.7

178 1.1 4.6 2.8 173.4 1.1 9.5 -3 25.3 -1.2 3.8 19.1 2.4 3.6 2.9 8.2 -1.9 18.9 -1.2 18.5 3.8 16.7 3.6 9 5.9 1.9 0 61.8 1.6

176.3 -0.9 4.3 -7.1 172.1 -0.8 8.6 -9.7 24.2 -4.5 3.6 18.5 2.1 3.6 0.5 7.9 -2.9 19.1 1.3 19.2 4 16.5 -1.5 9.7 8.8 2 3.9 61.2 -1

171.7 -2.6 3.8 -9.5 167.8 -2.5 7.1 -17.3 22.6 -6.6 3.4 17.5 1.8 3.4 -5.9 7.4 -6.3 18.6 -3 19.6 1.7 16.2 -1.7 10 2.7 2 1.8 61 -0.3

171.3 -0.2 3.8 -1.4 167.5 -0.2 6.6 -6.9 22.4 -0.8 3.2 17.4 1.7 3 -10 7.3 -2.3 18.4 -1.1 20.3 3.6 16.5 1.7 10.2 2.1 2.2 9.6 60.6 -0.6

171.4 0.1 3.8 1.4 167.5 0 6.3 -4.2 22.4 -0.2 3.3 17.3 1.8 3 -0.6 7.2 -0.7 18.9 3.1 20.7 2.3 16.6 0.4 10.4 1.3 2.2 -1.4 59.9 -1.3

173.4 1.2 4 3.5 169.4 1.1 6.4 1.5 22.8 2.1 3.4 17.6 1.8 3.1 3.3 7.3 1.7 19.8 4.5 21 1.5 16.6 0.2 10.4 0.3 2.1 -1.8 59.7 -0.2

176.7 1.9 4.1 3.3 172.6 1.9 6.9 6.7 23.4 2.4 3.5 17.9 1.9 3.2 2.8 7.4 1.2 21.1 6.6 21.2 0.9 16.7 0.8 10.4 0.4 2.1 -1.4 60.2 0.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

164.7 0.8 4.1 -0.6 160.6 0.8 7.7 7.1 23.5 0.5 3 18.5 2 3.4 -4.2 7.7 3 17.2 -0.1 17.1 1.1 13.6 1.6 7.8 -3.7 2 3 60.6 0.8 9402.1 332.9 1.5 173.4 0.5 4.2 3820 2422 1397

167.1 1.5 4.2 2 162.9 1.5 8.3 8.5 24.6 4.4 3.3 19.1 2.1 3.6 5.1 7.6 -0.7 17.2 -0.2 16.8 -1.7 14.4 6.1 8 2.8 1.9 -3.3 60.5 -0.2

171.8 2.8 4.2 0.8 167.5 2.8 9.4 12.4 25.4 3.4 3.6 19.3 2.5 3.7 2.1 8 4.8 18.2 5.9 17.2 2.6 15.6 8.3 8 -0.6 1.9 0 60.2 -0.5

176 2.4 4.5 4.9 171.5 2.4 9.8 4.8 25.6 0.9 3.7 19.4 2.4 3.5 -5.2 8.3 4.4 19.1 5.1 17.8 3.3 16.2 3.3 8.5 5.8 1.9 -1.7 60.8 1.2

9804.3 10452.4 10812.4 10956.8 11059.2 10942.8 11225.4 11385.5 11667.1 11996.2 337.4 342.3 348.1 353.8 357.5 360.3 361.8 362.1 363.3 366 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.6 1 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.7 172.9 178 182.3 186.6 190.8 193.4 195 191.2 187.2 185.9 -0.3 3 2.4 2.4 2.3 1.4 0.8 -2 -2.1 -0.7 3.8 3.2 2.8 3.2 4.6 7.4 8.5 8.3 7.8 6.9 3381 3701 3097 2767 1240 788 810 1046 1687 2139 2131 2766 2535 2171 961 655 598 813 1424 1748 1250 935 562 596 279 134 211 233 262 391

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

83

T a m pa – St . P ete r s bu r g – C l ea r w ate r

P r o fi l e s The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is comprised of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas counties. Located centrally on the west coast of Florida, this region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge Docks, Ybor City, Bush Gardens, the University of South Florida, and the University of Tampa. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Devil Rays also call this region home.

Quick Facts:

• MSA population estimate of 2,747,272 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Hernando County population estimate of 171,233 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hillsborough County population estimate of 1,195,317 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Pasco County population estimate of 471,709 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Pinellas County population estimate of 909,013 as of July 1, 2009 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• A civilian labor force of 1,324,012 in September 2010 for the entire region (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 12.4% as of September 2010, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 163,835 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• Hillsborough County School District – 25,487 employees • Verizon Communications – 14,000 employees

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to be 3.8 percent on average each year, and the per capita income level will average 31.7 annually. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.8 percent, the highest of the metros. The average annual wage level will be 48.1. Population growth will average 0.8 percent, and Tampa is forecasted to have the second highest Gross Metro Product, averaging a level of 93,461.33 (Mill).

Employment growth is expected to be 1.1 percent annually. The unemployment rate is expected to average 10.8 percent.

The fastest growing sector in the Tampa area is Professional and Business Services, growing 4.0 percent each year. The Education and Health Services and Trade, Transportation, and Utilities sectors follow with average annual growth rates of 1.6 percent and 0.9 percent, respectively. The Other Services, Leisure and Federal Government sectors will experience a decline, with an annual growth rates of -0.3, -0.4, -1.6 percent, respectively.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s USF College of Nursing gets $1.3 million training grant • USF was one of two institutions in the nation awarded a five-year grant by the Department of Health and Human Services Health Resources and Services Administration.

• MacDill Air Force Base – 12,000 employees

• USF will train faculty across the state in simulation learning, informatics and telehealth.

• Hillsborough County Government – 10,886 employees

• As part the grant, USF will study how the use of emerging technologies can create a better learning experience for nursing students and better prepare them to enter the high-tech health care field.

• University of South Florida – 11,607 employees • Tampa International Airport – 7,760 employees

• James A Haley Veterans Hospital – 5,900 employees • St. Joseph’s Hospital – 5,242 employees • JP Morgan Chase – 5,237 employees

• Verizon Information Technologies – 5,000 employees

Source: Committee of One Hundred Research 84

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, August 12, 2010

T a m pa – St . P ete r s bu r g – C l ea r w ate r

Clearwater enlists Renaissance, EcoAsset for energy efficiency • The city of Clearwater signed a contract for $214,605 with Renaissance Planning Group and EcoAsset Solutions to address energy efficiency and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.

• EcoAsset Solutions will provide a forecast of greenhouse gas emissions for the city and a tool to track them.

• Both companies will work to find strategies such as housing planning initiatives, future land use and conservation to mitigate GHG emissions.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, August 24, 2010 Clearwater High prepares to hand out Kindle e-readers to its 2,100-plus students • Each Kindle comes loaded with textbooks according to the students’ course load for English, math, some science and novels. The device can access the internet and students can highlight and make notes in the books.

• Clearwater High will be the first high school to have the program. A pilot program at seven universities across the country yielded mixed results about the success of the Kindle as an educational tool. No studies have been done with high school students.

• RTI will design, construct and operate the pilot plant that captures the CO2 from the plant’s syngas, a synthetic gas generated from coal and petroleum coke.

• The plant would be completed in 2013 and is expected to capture about 300,000 tons of CO2.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, September 10, 2010 Siemens schedules Florida public presentations on high-speed rail • The Siemens exhibit at the Museum of Science & Industry in Tampa includes a full-sized model of the Siemens Velaro high-speed train, the fastest passenger train in the world.

• The “Future of Florida High Speed Rail Tour” started in Tampa and will continue to Orlando, Miami and Tallahassee.

• The Florida High Speed Rail, part of the Florida Department of Transportation, has not begun to solicit bids to design, build and operate the 85-mile high-speed rail line between Tampa and Orlando that is expected to open by 2015.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, September 13, 2010

Source: St. Petersburg Times, September 9, 2010 Tampa Electric partners for cleaner CO2 emissions at Polk Plant • Tampa Electric, the principal subsidiary of TECO Energy Inc., will partner with RTI International to construct a pilot plant that demonstrates the technology to remove sulfur and capture CO2 from the Tampa Electric Polk Power Station.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

85

T a m pa – St . P ete r s bu r g – C l ea r w ate r Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining and Logging, construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

Florida & Tampa Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

1.4

100000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

95000.0

80000.0 75000.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Tampa Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

70000.0 65000.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Tampa Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0% 4.0%

1200.0

2.0%

1150.0

0.0%

1100.0

86

1.2

85000.0

1250.0

1050.0

1

Tampa Real Gross Metro Product

Tampa Payroll Employment 1300.0

0.8

90000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.4

-2.0% 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Tampa Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

-4.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income

T a m pa – St . P ete r s bu r g – C l ea r w ate r

Quarterly Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

October 2010 Forecast

2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

103.6 2.7 52.3 51.3 86.4 4.6 37.4 31.2 46.3 2.8

104.1 2.2 52.7 51.5 86.5 4.4 37.5 31.2 46.6 2.7

104.8 2.1 53.1 51.7 86.6 4.3 37.7 31.1 47.1 2.9

105.4 2 53.5 51.9 86.9 3.9 37.8 31.2 47.4 3.3

106.3 2.6 54.1 52.2 87.4 1.2 38.1 31.3 47.7 3.1

107.4 3.2 54.8 52.6 88 1.8 38.4 31.5 48 2.9

108.7 3.7 55.5 53.1 88.7 2.4 38.8 31.6 48.3 2.6

110 4.4 56.2 53.8 89.5 3 39.2 31.9 48.6 2.5

111.5 4.9 57 54.6 90.4 3.4 39.6 32.1 48.9 2.5

113.1 5.3 57.8 55.3 91.3 3.7 40.1 32.4 49.2 2.5

114.5 5.4 58.7 55.8 92.1 3.8 40.5 32.6 49.6 2.7

116.2 5.6 59.7 56.6 93.1 4 41 32.8 50 2.8

117.9 5.7 60.6 57.3 94.1 4 41.5 33.1 50.3 2.9

119.7 5.8 61.5 58.1 95.1 4.1 41.9 33.3 50.7 3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1118.9 -0.8 57.1 -5.2 1061.7 -0.6 53.9 -7.9 206.4 -0.8 45.1 135.4 25.4 25.8 -6.2 90.4 -1.2 194.1 0.6 174.3 1 115.9 -1.4 43.1 -2.2 22.8 1.1 135 1.6

1116.5 -0.3 57.3 -1.8 1059.2 -0.2 53.2 -6.3 206.3 0.7 45.1 135.5 25.3 25.8 -4.9 88.9 -2.4 194.3 1.3 175.4 0.5 115.7 -0.6 43.2 -1.8 21.8 -2.6 134.6 1.3

1115.1 -0.4 57.5 -0.7 1057.6 -0.4 52.5 -3.6 205.6 -0.3 45.1 134.8 25.4 26.1 -1.3 89.2 -2.2 194.1 0.5 175.6 0.5 114.8 -0.2 43.4 -0.5 21.7 -3.3 134.5 0.3

1117.1 -0.6 57.9 0.7 1059.2 -0.7 52.2 -3.6 205.5 -0.2 45.5 133.9 25.6 26.3 1.6 89.5 -1.8 195.6 -0.2 176.2 1 114.4 -1.3 43.4 0.2 21.6 -15.3 134.5 -0.1

1121.7 0.3 58.4 2.2 1063.3 0.1 52.4 -2.9 206.3 0 46.1 133.7 25.9 26.4 2.5 89.7 -0.8 198.3 2.1 177.1 1.6 114.1 -1.6 43.4 0.7 21.6 -5.3 134 -0.7

1129.6 1.2 58.8 2.6 1070.8 1.1 52.4 -1.4 207.8 0.7 46.6 134.5 26.2 26.6 2.8 90.1 1.4 202.6 4.3 178.2 1.6 113.8 -1.6 43.5 0.7 21.6 -1 134.1 -0.4

1137.2 2 59.4 3.2 1077.8 1.9 52.8 0.7 209.4 1.9 47.1 135.3 26.6 26.9 3.1 90.7 1.7 205.4 5.8 179 2 114.2 -0.5 43.6 0.4 21.5 -1.1 134.3 -0.2

1144 2.4 60 3.5 1084.1 2.4 53.6 2.8 211 2.7 47.5 136.3 26.8 27.2 3.2 91.3 2 207 5.8 180 2.2 114.7 0.2 43.5 0.2 21.4 -1.3 134.5 0

1152.9 2.8 60.5 3.7 1092.4 2.7 54.5 4.2 212.4 3 47.8 137.1 27.1 27.3 3.3 91.9 2.4 210.5 6.2 180.9 2.2 115.1 0.9 43.6 0.3 21.3 -1.5 134.8 0.6

1162.6 2.9 61.1 3.8 1101.5 2.9 55.7 6.2 213.9 2.9 48.3 137.8 27.3 27.4 3.2 92.5 2.6 214.5 5.9 181.9 2 115.6 1.6 43.6 0.2 21.2 -1.8 135.1 0.8

1172 3.1 61.6 3.8 1110.4 3 57 7.9 215.2 2.7 48.7 138.3 27.6 27.6 2.5 92.9 2.4 218.8 6.5 182.3 1.8 116.2 1.8 43.7 0.3 21.2 -1.5 135.5 1

1182.6 3.4 62.2 3.7 1120.4 3.4 58.5 9.1 216.5 2.6 49.1 139.1 27.8 27.7 1.9 93.2 2.2 223.8 8.1 183.3 1.9 116.6 1.7 43.7 0.5 21.1 -1.2 136 1.1

1193 3.5 62.5 3.3 1130.5 3.5 60 10 217.7 2.5 49.4 139.8 28 27.7 1.6 93.8 2 228.9 8.7 184.2 1.8 116.9 1.5 43.7 0.4 21.1 -1 136.5 1.3

1201.8 3.4 62.8 2.8 1139 3.4 61.6 10.6 218.5 2.1 49.7 140.3 28.2 27.8 1.4 94.2 1.8 233.1 8.7 184.9 1.6 117.2 1.3 43.7 0.3 21 -0.8 137 1.4

89772.4 2772.2 0.7 1309.4 0.4 12.3 6477 4196 2281

90095.6 2777.3 0.8 1308.7 -0.3 12.3 6547 4478 2069

90576.1 2782.1 0.7 1308.2 -1.1 12 7027 4967 2060

91014.8 2787.2 0.7 1307 -0.7 11.7 8154 5849 2305

91585.4 2792.3 0.7 1307.5 -0.1 11.5 9392 6994 2399

92466.5 2797.7 0.7 1308.9 0 11.2 10845 8292 2553

93304.5 2803.1 0.8 1310.3 0.2 10.9 12569 9681 2888

94101.4 2808.4 0.8 1313.1 0.5 10.5 14485 10971 3515

95003.9 2814.3 0.8 1316.4 0.7 10.1 15990 12564 3426

95971.8 2820.8 0.8 1318.7 0.7 9.7 16610 13333 3277

96758.5 2828.2 0.9 1321.8 0.9 9.4 17321 13956 3365

97688.8 2836.3 1 1324.8 0.9 9 18507 14933 3574

98618.5 2845.1 1.1 1328.5 0.9 8.7 19275 15442 3833

99511.9 2854.3 1.2 1332.7 1.1 8.5 19769 15634 4135

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

87

T a m pa – St . P ete r s bu r g – C l ea r w ate r

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

October 2010 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

78.9 5 42.9 35.9 74.8 2.9 31.2 29.6 37.2 4.1

84.9 7.6 46 38.9 78.5 4.9 32.8 30.3 38.5 3.5

91.4 7.7 49.1 42.3 82 4.6 34.6 31 39.8 3.3

98.5 7.7 52.3 46.2 86 4.9 36.6 32 41.5 4.3

101.2 2.8 54 47.2 86.1 0.1 37.3 31.7 42.9 3.4

102.4 1.2 53.6 48.8 84.3 -2.1 37.5 30.9 44 2.7

101.1 -1.3 51.6 49.5 83.1 -1.5 36.8 30.2 45 2.1

103.4 2.3 52.2 51.2 84.9 2.2 37.3 30.7 46.1 2.6

106 2.5 53.9 52.1 87.3 2.8 38 31.3 47.5 3.1

110.8 4.6 56.6 54.2 90 3.1 39.4 32 48.8 2.5

117.1 5.6 60.1 56.9 93.6 4 41.2 32.9 50.1 2.9

1248.4 2.1 78.2 1.2 1170.2 2.1 93.9 6.3 235.7 1 54 151 30.7 31.8 -0.2 102.7 3.2 222 4.2 159.3 2.4 128.5 1.7 47.1 -4.6 21 1.2 128.1 0.7

1247.4 -0.1 75.6 -3.3 1171.8 0.1 87.3 -7 234.1 -0.7 54.3 150.8 29 31.8 -0.1 101.8 -0.9 221.9 -0.1 166.5 4.5 128.8 0.2 47.8 1.5 21.1 0.5 130.6 2

1204.9 -3.4 71.2 -5.8 1133.7 -3.3 75.9 -13.1 226.5 -3.3 52.9 145.8 27.8 30.3 -4.8 97.1 -4.6 207.6 -6.4 170.9 2.7 124.8 -3.1 47.6 -0.5 21.9 3.9 131.1 0.4

1135.4 -5.8 61.7 -13.4 1073.7 -5.3 60 -21 209.4 -7.5 47.9 135.6 25.8 27.8 -8.2 92.3 -4.9 194.1 -6.5 172.3 0.8 118.5 -5 44.2 -7 22.6 3.1 132.5 1.1

1119.8 -1.4 57.5 -6.8 1062.3 -1.1 53.9 -10.1 206.2 -1.5 45.1 135.6 25.3 26 -6.5 90.4 -2 194.4 0.2 174.7 1.4 115.6 -2.4 43.3 -2 23.2 2.6 134.5 1.5

1120.9 0.1 58.2 1.2 1062.7 0 52.4 -2.9 206.3 0 45.8 134.2 25.8 26.3 1.4 89.6 -0.8 197.7 1.7 176.8 1.2 114.3 -1.2 43.4 0.3 21.7 -6.6 134.3 -0.2

1149.2 2.5 60.2 3.6 1088.9 2.5 54.2 3.5 211.7 2.6 47.7 136.6 27 27.2 3.2 91.6 2.2 209.4 5.9 180.5 2.1 114.9 0.6 43.6 0.3 21.3 -1.4 134.7 0.3

1187.4 3.3 62.3 3.4 1125.1 3.3 59.3 9.4 216.9 2.5 49.2 139.4 27.9 27.7 1.8 93.5 2.1 226.2 8 183.7 1.8 116.7 1.6 43.7 0.4 21.1 -1.1 136.3 1.2

88843.8 92114.1 91917.0 90541.4 2643.5 2686.7 2713.1 2732.1 2.2 1.6 1 0.7 1248.3 1272.9 1293.6 1307.5 -0.5 2 1.6 1.1 3.9 3.4 4.2 6.6 32730 22907 11559 8926 27577 19477 8530 5266 5153 3429 3029 3660

87794.8 2749.6 0.6 1309.4 0.1 11 5842 4046 1796

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

88

1141.8 0.1 76 -5 1065.8 0.5 72 3.5 221.2 -2.8 50.4 139.8 31 33.8 -3.6 93.9 1.5 183.7 2.4 148.5 3.2 118.7 0.4 47.9 -0.2 19.5 2.8 126.6 -0.8

1183.3 3.6 76.6 0.8 1106.7 3.8 79.1 9.8 226.1 2.3 50.9 143.3 31.9 32.1 -5 95.5 1.7 202.1 10 153.2 3.1 122.3 3 49.2 2.7 19.9 2.2 127.2 0.4

78895.3 83143.1 2530.6 2585.9 1.7 2.2 1226.3 1254.9 0.3 2.3 5.3 4.5 27278 27278 20002 22057 7275 5221

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2010

1222.9 3.4 77.3 0.9 1145.6 3.5 88.3 11.6 233.5 3.2 52.8 149 31.7 31.9 -0.6 99.4 4.1 213.2 5.5 155.6 1.6 126.3 3.2 49.4 0.5 20.8 4.3 127.2 0

89694.8 91410.7 2769.5 2789.8 0.7 0.7 1314.3 1307.9 0.4 -0.5 12.5 11.6 7306 8855 4682 6525 2624 2329

94595.4 98144.4 2811.6 2840.9 0.8 1 1314.6 1326.9 0.5 0.9 10.3 8.9 14914 18718 11637 14991 3276 3727

I n d u s t r y L o cati o n Q u o tie n t

E x p l a n ati o n a n d I n te r p r etati o n This technique compares the local economy to a reference economy; in this case, the local economy is the chosen MSA, and the reference economy is the state of Florida. An Industry Location Quotient (LQ ) is calculated to determine if the local economy has a greater share of each industry’s employment than the reference economy. The LQ helps to identify specializations that exist in the local economy.

There are only three possible outcomes: 1. An LQ greater than one 2. An LQ equal to one and 3. An LQ less than one. An LQ that is greater than one means that the share of local employment in that particular industry is greater than the reference economy employment share in that same industry. This implies that some of the goods or services produced by that industry are exported for consumption elsewhere. An LQ of one means that local demand is met by the local industry. No goods/services are imported or exported from the local area in that industry. The share of local employment in that industry is equal to the share for that industry in the reference economy. An LQ less than one implies that the industry is not meeting local demand for that good or service, and in order to meet demand, that area must import that good or service. This also means that the share of local employment in that industry is less than the share of employment in that industry for the reference economy.

C a l cu l ati o n An industry location quotient is a calculated ratio of two ratios.

LQ = ((Local employment in industry A in year T / Total local employment in year T) /

(Reference economy employment in industry A in year T) / (Total reference

employment in year T)) For example: Orlando MSA employment for Information is 27,400

Total Orlando MSA nonagricultural employment is 1,104,100 Florida employment for Information is 169,800

Total Florida nonagricultural employment is 8,247,000 LQ = ((27,400 / 1,104,100) / (169,800 / 8,247,000)) = 1.2039 Source: Florida Regional Economic Database, Current Employment Statistics, December 2006 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

89

In Appeciation

The UCF College of Business Administration would like to thank Alan C. Charron, ‘84, for his generous gift to the Institute for Economic Competitiveness. His support enables the Institute to publish this forecast and will help fund future activities and research. Charron graduated in 1984 with a degree in finance.

He is president of Real Property Specialists, Inc., located in Orlando, Florida.

Founded in 1992, Real Property Specialists, Inc., is a fullservice brokerage company that has built a reputation of providing highly personalized service while being responsive and flexible to its clients' individual needs. They offer a range of commercial real estate services in the Central Florida area including brokerage, appraisal, development, property management and tenant representation.

Real Property Specialists, Inc., has set a new standard of excellence in client service by providing these key advantages over the competition:

Responsiveness. You work directly with a decision

maker who has the flexibility to immediately attend to your needs.

Consistency. We are a unified firm employing team-

members who are committed to the success of our clients.

We pride ourselves on our ability to maintain a dedicated, professional staff that is able to build long-term, comfortable and prosperous relationships with our clients.

Accountability. At Real Property Specialists, our client is the real "Boss." We are accountable to no one other than the client. No company policy interferes with our ability to serve the individual needs of each client.

Experience. The staff at Real Property Specialists is

highly qualified, with most associates having more than a decade of experience in the industry. Our personal portfolio of shopping centers gives us first-hand knowledge of what is important when leasing, managing or selling a property.

Appraisers • Brokers • Consultants 6700 Conroy-Windermere Road, Suite 230 | Orlando, FL 32835 407.291.9000 | www.realpropertyspecialists.com

Director, Institute for Economic Competitiveness.

Ph.D., Pennsylvania State University 1996; M.A., Pennsylvania State University 1994; B.S., Allegheny College 1989.

Sea n M . S n ait h , P h . D .

We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness:

Sean Snaith, Ph.D., is the Director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness within the College of Business Administration at the University of Central Florida and is a widely recognized economist in the field of business and economic forecasting.

As an award-winning forecaster, researcher, and professor, Snaith is always interested in the application of academic expertise to the solution of real world problems.

Snaith has served as a consultant for a client list ranging from local and regional municipalities to multi-national corporations, including Compaq, Dell and IBM. He has held teaching positions at Pennsylvania State University, American University in Cairo, University of North Dakota and University of the Pacific.

Snaith frequently appears in national and regional media and is sought after as a speaker. He has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, the New York Times, and the Chicago Tribune and has appeared on CNBC and Fox Business Channel. Known for his engaging presentations, one business editor wrote, “Snaith (has) an uncanny knack of making economics not only understandable but interesting.”

Snaith is a member of several economic organizations and national economic forecasting panels including USA Today’s Survey of Top Economists, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, Bloomberg, Reuters and the Livingston Survey.

In 2007 he was named California’s most accurate forecaster by the Western Blue Chip Consensus Forecast, besting UCLA, Wells Fargo and other esteemed forecasting groups. Snaith holds a B.S. in Economics from Allegheny College and an M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from Pennsylvania State University.

Snaith was recently named by Bloomberg News as one of the nation’s most accurate forecasters and was one of just two academic economists making the list which was released in the December 2008 issue of Bloomberg Markets.

For more information Sean Snaith, Director Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida P.O. Box 161400 Orlando, FL 32816 PH: 407.823.1451 FAX: 407.823.1454 E-MAIL: ssnaith@bus.ucf.edu www.iec.ucf.edu

U n i v e r s it y o f C e n t r al F l o r ida College of Business Administration Institute for Economic Competitiveness P. O . B o x 1 6 1 4 0 0 , O r l a n d o , F l o r i d a 3 2 8 1 6 PH 407.823.1453

FAX 407.823.1454

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