Florida and Metro Forecast October 2011 by UCF College of Business

Florida & Metro Forecast 2011-2014

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

Published October 2011

M e e t I n t e r im D e a n f O AR D f . j O NE S

About University of Central Florida (UCF) T he Universit y of Centra l F lorida is a publ ic, mu lt i-ca mpus, met ropol ita n r e s e a r c h u n i v e r s i t y, d e d i c a t e d t o ser v ing its surrounding communities with their diverse and expanding populations, technological corridors, and inter nationa l pa r tners. T he mission of t he universit y is to of fer highqualit y underg raduate and g raduate education, student development, and continuing education; to conduct research and creative activ ities; and to prov ide ser v ices that enhance the intellectua l, cultura l, env ironmenta l, and economic development of the metropolitan region, address national and internationa l issues in key areas, establish UCF as a major presence, and c o n t r i b u t e t o t h e g l o b a l c o m m u n i t y.

About the College of Business Administration T he College of Business Administrat i o n a d v a n c e s t h e u n i v e r s i t y ’s m i s s i o n and goa ls in prov iding intellectua l leadership through resea rch, teaching, and ser v ice. T he college is striving to enhance g raduate prog rams, while maintaining the strong undergraduate base. The college delivers resea rch and qua lit y business education programs at the undergraduate, masters, doctora l, and executive levels to citizens of the state of F lorida and to select clientele nationa lly and i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y.

Once again, it is time to turn our clocks back. Yes, we “spring ahead” and “fall back” so we lose one hour. I am glad that we gain some time, but I do not like that it gets dark out so early. Turning our clocks back is an annual ritual for most of the country, but what if we could really turn back time? Would we make the same choices? You often hear the phrase, “if I knew then what I know now.” Many people feel that way and would love to re-do parts of their lives. Our economy would probably not have suffered so much if people made different choices concerning the real estate market or with their investments. Perhaps some people wish they did not vote for a particular senator, governor, congressman or other political candidate that never carried out their campaign promises. The truth is, we can’t really turn back time. It is easy to criticize our past decisions, but it is even harder to learn from them. We must educate ourselves so that we don’t repeat mistakes or make more bad choices. Since we can’t really change the past, it is important to focus on the present. Our future will be very bleak if we don’t fix our current economic problems. And for those of you like me, who welcome that extra hour this fall – don’t get used to it– we’re going to lose it again in the spring! Thanks for your continued support. Sincerely,

Foard F. Jones Interim Dean

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

F lo r i da F o r eca s t 2011 - 2014 October 2011 Report

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright ÂŠ 2011 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved.

Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Elaine Vogt, Administrative Assistant Alexandra Betrone-Harpst, Researcher Jessica Fears, Researcher Sangitha Palaniappa, Researcher Nicholas Simons, Researcher This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitivenessâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.

TABLE OF CONTENTS Florida Highlights and Summary........................ 5-11 Florida Forecast Tables...................................... 12-17

Ta b l e o f co n t e n t s

Florida Forecast Charts...................................... 18-25 Florida News Summaries....................................... 26 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach.......... 27-31 Gainesville......................................................... 32-36 Jacksonville....................................................... 37-41 Lakeland............................................................ 42-45 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach.......... 46-50 Naples-Marco Island......................................... 51-55 Ocala................................................................. 56-60 Orlando-Kissimmee.......................................... 61-65 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville......................... 66-70 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent.............................. 71-75 Tallahassee........................................................ 76-80 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater.................... 81-84 Industry Location Quotient..................................... 85

F l o r id a S umm a r y

H i g h l i g h t s o f t h e oc t ob e r 2 0 1 1 - 2 0 1 4 F l o r id a Fo r e c a s t • The Siamese twins of Florida’s economy, the labor and housing markets, are both experiencing a creeping convalescence and have not yet actively participated in the economic recovery. In 2013 and 2014 both will be standing on much sturdier legs. • Like a Legionnaire lost in the Sahara Desert, Florida has struggled toward a recovery that has seemed to be just over the horizon, only to find that the mirage of a lush economic recovery dissipates as the state draws closer to this economic oasis. • Governor Scott should hire a medium to hold a séance to reach out to the other side and make contact with the state’s ethereal economic recovery. • Politicians rush in where angels fear to tread. There are at least two institutions where the influence of politicians of all leanings should always be limited: Central Banks and Universities. • Private sector job creation will be swimming against the tide of State and Local Government job losses through the end of 2012. • Payroll job growth year-over-year is expected to average 0.7% in 2011, 1.1% in 2012, 2.0% in 2013 and 2.8% in 2014. It will be the 2nd quarter of 2016 before payrolls recover to their pre-recession levels. • Unemployment will remain stubbornly high; it will s-l-o-w-l-y fall to 8.8% in the fourth quarter of 2014. • The sectors expected to have the strongest average growth during 2011-2014 are Professional and Business Services (4.2%); Trade, Transportation & Utilities (3.0%); Construction (2.1%) and Leisure & Hospitality (2.0%). • The state’s housing market has provided year-round Halloween fright for Florida’s homeowners for several years now. Housing market horror has erased hundreds of billions of dollars of Floridian’s wealth. Median prices have fallen from $257,800 in June 2006 to $133,900 in September 2011. • To put this lost wealth in perspective: a family of four earning the state median income ($69,009) and saving at twice the national rate (4.5%) would take nearly twenty years to recover that lost housing wealth ($123,900). • Real Gross State Product (RGSP) will expand 1.1% in 2011, and then accelerate to 1.9% in 2012, 2.9% in 2013, and 4.4% in 2014. • Real personal income growth turned positive in 2010. From 2011-2014, real personal income growth will average 2.2%, and will peak at 3.4% in 2014. • Florida’s population growth will continue its recovery in 2011. By 2014 the growth rate should hit 1.7% as households repair balance sheet damage and the Baby Boomer retiree flow gains momentum. • Retail sales will grow at an average pace of 5.1% during 2011-2014. Bursts of spending will be followed by periods of slower growth as consumers periodically peek their heads out of their shells. Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r id a S umm a r y

Politicians Rush in Where Angels Fear to Tread There are at least two institutions where the influence of politicians should always be limited: Central Banks and public universities. The potential damage to the economy and society at large from failing to restrain political influence on these institutions can be staggering.

Let me be very frank from the onset of this discussion, I am not suggesting that independence of these institutions should imply a lack of accountability. In a democratic society there must be some level of accountability to elected officials and thus the public at large. Neither Central Banks nor universities should operate with impunity, but rather with autonomy. Any institution that receives public monies, or is given the right to create it, should always be accountable, period.

Central bank independence is now widely viewed (but not by everybody) as a desirable structure for macroeconomic growth and price level stability over time1. The subject of central bank independence is nuanced and more complex than the confines of this space, and the readerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s interest, permit for discussion. Letâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s simplify it by asking a question: Would you want the same politicians who have been running trillion dollar plus federal budget deficits to also have the power to finance them by printing money?

The temptation would simply be too great and when politicians succumbed to the urge to pay for spending by this method it would cause wider swings in the business cycle and ultimately lead to much higher levels and variability in the rate of inflation. Every instance of hyperinflation involves central banks printing currency at breakneck speeds in order to pay for excessive government spending: from 1 Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke on this topic in 2010: http://www.federalreserve. gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20100525a.htm 6

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

Germany to Brazil, Zimbabwe to Zaire and every episode in between the story is the same. When central banks are politically dependent, the potential for economic disaster is far greater than when they are insulated from political influences.

Efforts to rein in the Federal Reserve Bank and bring it under more direct control of politicians should be vigorously resisted by all, lest hyperinflation one day pay an unwelcome visit to the United States.

Some politicians, who would bristle at the notion of the government intervening in the production decisions of private companies, somehow feel that when it comes to the output and production decisions of universities this same government has superior knowledge and should therefore impose their will on decision making within a university.

One might argue public universities (and in Florida private schools as well via Bright Futures scholarships) receive funding from the government so this is an apples and oranges comparison. However, it is not unusual for a private company to receive tax dollars in the form of economic development incentives.

If a manufacturer locates a facility in Florida and receives economic development money from the government as an incentive, should the Governor and legislature make strategic decisions as to the types of products and production methods the company pursues? Of course not, but they should be held accountable for delivering what was promised in return for the development money. Universities should be held accountable as well but also be free to make the decisions about what products they produce and how best to produce them. Universities are not solely wards of the state and much of the funding they already receive from government comes with strings attached.

F l o r id a S umm a r y

Universities generate revenue from other sources, including tuition & fees, room and board, grant money, royalties, philanthropy, investment income and athletics, entertainment and cultural events to name a few sources.

Limiting the role of universities to providing the cogs that businesses need to keep their machinery running by overemphasizing the role of teaching relative to other activities in a university is a mistake. Cogs can only keep the existing machine moving. They cannot imagine an entirely different machine altogether. Cogs do not dream or invent, they do their job and fulfill their role. We need cogs, but we also need dreamers.

America’s colleges and universities have always been a beacon of knowledge and opportunity, a signal torch attracting the world’s best and brightest. Politicians should be working to stoke the flame rather than trying to snuff it out. Governor Scott in his 7-7-7 plan (By the way, does Herman Cain have to pay franchise fees to the Governor?) stated that fostering world class universities and developing more high tech clusters were central to his job creation platform. These are solid planks with a proven history of providing the type of economic boost the governor is seeking.

Silicon Valley, Research Triangle, the Massachusetts High Tech Corridor all share a common characteristic and it is not low tax rates, but rather they are proximate to, you guessed it: world class universities. These universities became world class not through politicization of higher education but through fostering an environment to provide the resources and freedom to flourish.

Could UCF, USF, UF and FSU form the corners of what could come to be known as the research quadrilateral? I see no reason that it could not happen if the resources are provided and the freedom to pursue excellence are afforded to leaders at these institutions.

Florida’s H ousi ng Ma r ket Figures 1 and 2 below display monthly data through September 2011 from the market for singlefamily existing homes as released by the Florida Realtors. The darker and smoother line in each graph is the 12-month moving average of each of the unadjusted monthly series which are shown with the lighter and more variable line.

The 12-month moving average of sales (Figure 1) has stabilized around 15,000 after oscillating after the expiration of the first time homebuyer’s tax credit Figure 2. Median Housing Prices

Figure 1. Existing Housing Sales

FloridaFlorida

Single Family, Homes Existing Homes Single Family, Existing

Single Family, Existing Homes

$300,000.00

30000 25000

$250,000.00

Realtor Sales Moving Average

Median Sales Price Moving Average

$200,000.00

20000 15000

$150,000.00

10000

$100,000.00

5000

$50,000.00

Year

Data Source: Florida Realtors

Data Source: Florida Realtors Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r id a S umm a r y

program. Despite that wavering, sales for 2011 to date are on average higher than the average for 2010. The year ago comparison in the most recent data release shows that sales are up 10% year-over-year.

Median prices (Figure 2) have not definitively reached a bottom after their multi-year decline. The rate at which the 12-month moving average of median prices is declining has slowed, but not stopped. In the September report, median prices declined by 1% year-over-year. However, the median price for existing home sales has had a good showing in 2011 thus far, rising from $122,200 in January to $133,900 in September and if the rest of the year extends these gains we may have seen the low point for prices in the housing market. This potential bottom is far from being a done deal given sluggish labor markets.

O ut look f or Flor ida 2 01 1- 2 014 Florida’s Elusive Economic Recovery

As the myriad of economic, financial and policy uncertainties have weighed on the national economic recovery, so too has Florida’s belated recovery been frustratingly slow to fully materialize. Last forecast we spoke of the “Siamese Twins” of Florida’s economy: the labor and housing markets. We discussed how these two markets have fates that are completely entwined and how the well-being of each has a direct impact on the other. Progress for both of the “twins” has been difficult to come by and consequently Florida’s economy has been unable to build any significant momentum. Eventually the missing momentum will return, but is likely to take another 12-14 months of sputtering recovery before it does. The 2011 3rd quarter report on U.S. GDP growth has eased fears of a doubledip recession and a significant agreement in the European Union has calmed jittery nerves in financial markets. Like a Legionnaire lost in the Sahara Desert, Florida has struggled toward a recovery that has 8

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

seemed to be just over the horizon only to find the mirage of a full economic recovery dissipate as the state draws closer to its economic oasis.

The improvements in the larger economic and financial environment will provide a more hospitable climate for Florida to continue its recovery from a deep and prolonged recession. Florida’s economy was addicted to strong population growth and a white hot housing market. It was easy to feel good with these pumping through the veins of our economy. As any former addict can tell you, recovery is not a seamless or pretty process. Florida’s economic prospects will get brighter. We expect that Florida’s recovery will slowly build momentum in 2012 and 2013 before approaching full speed in 2014 when the economy will grow by 4.5%.

This economic growth will eventually help the labor market move along its own longer and more difficult path to recovery, and even the beleaguered construction sector will begin to see job growth by 2013. Payroll job growth will accelerate over the next several years climbing to 2.8% in 2014.

There is still much to be optimistic about as far as Florida’s economic recovery is concerned. The stark reality is that the damage inflicted upon household balance sheets by the financial crisis, and the housing crisis in particular, will linger for many years. This lost housing wealth in particular will be a burden to Florida’s homeowners for decades. To put this lost wealth in perspective: a family of four earning the state median income ($69,009) and saving at twice the national rate (4.5%) would take nearly 20 years to recover that lost housing wealth ($123,900).

Gross State P roduc t Real Gross State Product (GSP) in Florida, the state-level analogue to Real GDP, grew 1.4% after two years of declines in 2010. Growth was modest last year and will remain modest for 2011, with full year growth coming in at just 1.1%.

F l o r id a S umm a r y

In 2012, a stabilizing housing market, growing confidence and a slow but steady labor market recovery will all be in place along with faster growth of 1.9%. In 2013 and 2014 economic growth accelerates to 2.9% and 4.5%. This higher growth will bring with it a sense that we are finally emerging from the rubble of the Great Recession. The burden that Florida’s consumers have to overcome in most cases is substantially higher than consumers in states around the nation. These include as mentioned above, greatly diminished home equity, persistently higher levels of unemployment rates, and meager job creation to date. Despite these challenges, as 2012 gives way to 2013 and beyond, the economy will begin to grow more rapidly. Nominal Gross State Product is expected to reach nearly $882.7 billion in 2014, as Florida progresses toward becoming a trillion-dollar economy. The state will likely cross that threshold six years from now in 2017. Florida’s economy is one of the largest in the world and will continue to grow even larger in the years ahead.

P ersona l I n com e , R e ta i l Sale s , a n d Au to Sa l e s Personal income growth quarter-over-quarter continued to grow in the third quarter in Florida. It increased by $4 billion after increasing nearly $10 billion from the first quarter to the second quarter of 2011. Growth will be higher through 2011 and lose a bit of momentum in 2012 before personal income growth accelerates into 2013 and 2014. Personal income growth will lag that of the nation as a whole through 2012. In 2013 the positions are reversed and Florida outpaces the nation with personal income growth that is an average of 0.2% higher than the nation through 2014. 2013 will be the first time since 2006 that personal income growth in Florida has been higher than the national rate. Personal income will reach nearly $870 billion in 2014 - a year that will boast growth of 5.7%, also the fastest pace since 2006.

Real disposable income growth, which also has been depressed by the struggling economy, increased by just 0.3% in 2010, but this was the first acceleration of growth since 2006. This continued growth of real disposable income should persist through the next four years. In 2011, growth should come in at 0.7% and rise to 1.4% in 2012. The stock market has made a strong recovery from the lows of the financial crisis. Despite some volatility earlier this year, the stock market is responding well to the announcement of possible solution to the European meltdown. A continued bullish sentiment in the stock market will help to recoup wealth that has still not been recovered from the stock market’s pre-crisis highs. The housing market in Florida has had no such luck, and this negative wealth effect will continue to weigh upon consumer spending in the state. Florida’s persistent double digit unemployment will also continue to weigh on consumer spending in Florida. But as the labor market shifts into a mode where private sector job creation strengthens, it will help lift consumer confidence and spending. New hiring and a solidification of confidence in job security will help to unlock some of the pentup consumer spending that resulted from prior employment worries.

Retail sales in Florida will grow at 6.49% in 2011, in part due to a burst of activity in the leisure & hospitality sector as pent-up demand is released in short bursts. Once the labor market has fully embarked on its long path to recovery, retail spending will begin to recover in other areas as well. We expect retail sales to expand at an average rate of 5.25% in 2011-2014. Although retail sales growth will not reach the levels experienced during the height of the housing and economic boom, it should help to partially alleviate the budget woes in Tallahassee in 2013 and 2014.

As the economy continues to grow, consumers’ pent-up demand for automobiles and light trucks will continue to be released. 2010 was the start of a multiyear rise in the number of new passenger car and Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r id a S umm a r y

truck registrations in Florida. Growth will be robust during 2011-2014, averaging nearly 15%. In 2014, registrations will reach 1.37 million, representing nearly a 200% increase from the 2009 nadir, but still below the level of registrations during the height of the housing boom.

Emp loy m e n t Overall payroll employment in the state fell 1.0% for 2010. This was the third consecutive year in a row that payrolls in Florida contracted. 2011 will break this inauspicious streak as payrolls expand at 0.7%. Payroll job growth has taken root in 2011, but will not fully blossom until 2013 and 2014. Job growth has been tepid in the first half of the year but it will begin to gain momentum in the second half. In 2012, job growth versus a year ago is expected to come in at 1.1%. This year will also mark the first time since 2006 that job growth in Florida exceeds the national rate of job growth. Payroll job growth will reach 2.8% in 2014 as we slowly accelerate to that point.

The long suffering Construction sector still has seven quarters of job losses yet to endure before it too joins in the labor marketâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s recovery. This sector has been shedding jobs profusely since the housing boom; it will be six years of job losses before the turnaround in the construction sector gets underway.

Job growth will not return to the Construction sector until the 2nd quarter of 2013; this will be the last private sector of the economy to join in the recovery. Job growth rates are expected to surge from -4.7% in 2012 to 3.1% in 2013 and 13.9% in 2014. These growth rates appear to be quite large, but are being calculated from a much lower base of employment in the sector as hundreds of thousands of jobs have been lost in construction. By the end of 2014, employment in this sector should be back at levels previously reached in 1994.

The Professional and Business Services sector will be the stateâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s fastest growing sector through 2014. Job growth in this sector is expected to lead the state 10

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

averaging 4.2% during 2011-2014. Job gains have been relatively modest to date but are expected to accelerate. By the fourth quarter of 2011, job growth in the sector will be 1.5%. For the full year, 2011 will turn in job growth of 0.9% and will gradually accelerate and reach 2.0% in 2012, 5.2% in 2013, and 8.5% in 2014. This sector will recover quickly and will get back to pre-recession peak levels of employment before the end of the 2nd quarter of 2014. The Information sector shed jobs through the first half of 2011, and employment will continue to fall through the end of 2011. Structural changes in this industry, as technology has evolved and news comes in the form of 140 character electronic bursts rather than newsprint, haunt this sector, but other sources of growth will eventually help compensate.

Job growth year over year will return to the Information sector in 2012 and this will be just the second year of job growth in this sector in 12 prior years, including six straight years of net job losses leading up to and through 2011. Job growth will jump to 2.9% in 2012 as the recovery kicks into gear, but still only average 1.7% in 2012-2014. The one sector that has generated jobs throughout the recession and that is expected to continue to expand through the end of 2014 is the Health and Education sector. During 2011-2014, employment in this sector is expected to expand at an average rate of 1.9%. Budget woes will likely reduce employment levels in the education side of the sector and schools continue to face significant revenue shortfalls due to the housing sectorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s gloominess. It is still difficult to tell precisely how politics and the legal battle surrounding Obamacare will ultimately impact healthcare in Florida. Federal and state budget battles will put Medicare and Medicaid expenditures in the glare of the budgetary spotlight. However, with some momentum toward expanding coverage and our aging population in the state, it appears that demand for health services will remain strong for the foreseeable future. This rising demand will continue to foster job growth in this sector.

F l o r id a S umm a r y

Manufacturing employment expanded weakly in Florida through the first half of 2011. Globalization and productivity gains in manufacturing have reduced employment in this sector for the better part of a decade. The sector is emerging from this period of globalization induced crash diet as competitive as it has been in many years.

This improved competitiveness and a weakened dollar, especially against emerging market currencies, and Europe if the debt deal recently struck has traction, will help drive growth as exports continue to rise. We are expecting to see job growth of 2.0% in this sector for the full year in 2012, followed by an even stronger year of job growth in 2013, when manufacturing employment will expand at a rate of 2.5%. For the first time in over two decades, manufacturing is expected to gain jobs in four consecutive years, as 2014 job growth is expected to be 2.7%.

Public sector employment in Federal Government will contract throughout the forecast horizon as the deficit and debt levels and U.S. debt downgrade has focused attention on runaway government spending. The sector will contract by 3.4% on average during 2011-2014. State and local government budget crunches in Florida will keep employment in the sector flat on average during the same time period. Employment growth weakly returns in 2013 at just 0.3% before accelerating to 1.1% in 2014.

Unemployment, which held steady in the 2nd quarter of 2011, will remain above 10% through the 3rd quarter of 2013. Growth in the labor force will offset the growth in payroll employment and will keep unemployment rates higher for an extended period. In 2013, unemployment will begin its slow decline and it will continue to fall through the end of 2014. By the end of 2014, unemployment will still be uncomfortably high at 8.8%. Payroll job growth will trigger the reentry of discouraged workers who had abandoned the job search during this protracted labor market cycle. This source of growth in the labor force, which has not yet fully materialized as Floridaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s labor force has stabilized, will make the reduction in the unemployment rate a much more difficult and prolonged process.

The problem of underemployment and marginally attached workersâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; those who are neither working nor looking for work, but indicate that they want and are available for a job, and have looked for work sometime in the past twelve monthsâ&#x20AC;&#x201D; and those who have given up searching for a job entirely, is substantial, and as just noted, it is a factor behind the persistently high unemployment rate. When adding these workers to the top level unemployment figure, this broader measure of unemployment, known as U6, paints an even grimmer picture of labor markets, and is currently 18.2% through the 3rd quarter of 2011 in Florida, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

U ne mploy m e n t Unemployment rates in Florida remain at doggedly high levels, despite the fact that the state has been in recovery since 2010. Current levels of unemployment sit at 10.6%. Real Gross State Product has been growing since the 1st quarter of 2010, admittedly not at a breakneck pace as growth has averaged just 1.2% through the first half of 2011. Tepid growth will do little to rapidly bring down the unemployment rate, but merely chip away at it. Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r id a S umm a r y T a b l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2005

2006

2007

2008

2011

2012

2013

2014

633.2

690.3

721.1

Personal Income and GSP 739.4 722.3 737.5 767.9

792.9

822.4

869.1

Florida (%Ch)

8.7

9.0

4.5

2.6

-2.3

2.1

4.1

3.3

3.7

5.7

U.S.(%Ch)

5.5

7.5

5.7

4.6

-4.2

3.7

5.1

3.4

3.6

5.4

Personal Income (Bil. 2000$)

633.1

671.9

683.5

678.7

661.7

663.8

675.6

688.5

701.2

Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$)

5.5 4.3 564.1

6.1 7.6 598.6

1.7 -4.6 609.0

-0.7 -0.6 615.9

-2.5 -13.7 613.1

0.3 9.2 614.9

1.8 6.3 619.2

1.9 3.9 628.1

1.9 5.1 633.4

724.7 3.4 7.9 652.0 2.9

Personal Income (Bil. $)

2009

2010

Florida (%Ch)

3.9

6.1

1.7

1.1

-0.4

0.3

0.7

1.4

0.8

U.S.(%Ch)

1.4

4.0

2.4

-2.3

1.8

1.5

1.6

0.7

2.7

680.3 9.5 680.3

730.2 7.4 706.6

759.6 4.0 714.0

747.8 -1.5 689.9

732.8 -2.0 664.1

747.7 2.0 673.4

770.3 3.0 681.1

794.9 3.2 693.7

830.1 4.4 714.1

882.7 6.3 746.2

(%Ch)

6.1

3.9

1.1

-3.4

-3.7

1.4

1.1

1.9

2.9

4.5

Employment Labor Force

3.8 2.9

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) 3.3 1.4 -1.0 -4.7 -0.6 1.0 0.5 1.3 2.8 2.1 1.4 -0.6 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.8

2.1 1.0

FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

3.8 5.1

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2000$)

3.3 4.6

4.0 4.6

6.2 5.8

10.2 9.3

11.5 9.6

10.9 9.1

10.7 9.3

10.2 9.0

9.2 8.2

1.4 2.0 -0.7 3.1

2.1 2.8 -1.1 13.9

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing

1.7 4.0 -0.8 11.3

1.8 2.6 -6.5 7.2

1.1 0.2 1.6 -8.8

-0.6 -3.5 -7.8 -17.4

-4.4 -6.2 -11.5 -23.3

-0.7 -1.0 -2.2 -11.5

0.9 0.7 3.5 -4.0

0.7 1.1 0.1 -4.7

1.2

0.3

-4.2

-7.0

-12.7

-5.2

0.2

2.0

2.5

2.7

-1.7 2.7 3.8 4.1 4.1

-2.0 1.3 1.4 2.9 2.0

-1.5 -5.4 0.1 1.5 0.4

-6.2 -7.4 -2.1 -3.1 -2.9

-10.1 -14.0 -6.7 -8.0 -6.6

-4.0 -5.8 -2.2 -3.3 0.2

-0.1 0.4 1.9 -1.0 0.9

0.3 3.0 2.8 1.5 1.4

-0.5 4.0 3.5 2.9 2.0

-0.6 4.3 3.9 2.9 0.8

5.0 7.2 2.5 2.7 0.2

3.2 4.3 2.7 1.5 -0.9

-1.0 0.7 3.1 2.0 -0.3

-4.6 -6.1 2.1 -1.4 -3.4

-7.4 -8.0 1.2 -4.6 -8.7

-2.7 0.5 1.8 0.2 -4.9

-0.4 0.9 2.0 4.3 -3.0

1.2 2.0 1.8 2.9 1.0

1.3 5.2 1.7 1.0 2.9

0.7 8.5 2.0 -0.1 1.1

Federal Gov't.

1.5

-0.7

0.2

1.4

2.3

6.9

-6.5

-2.2

-2.5

-2.4

State & Local Gov't.

1.4

2.0

2.4

0.2

-1.4

-1.0

0.0

-1.4

0.3

1.1

Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information

Population (thous)

Population and Migration 17,904.0 18,212.0 18,418.7 18,579.6 18,714.6 18,859.1 19,033.8 19,262.0 19,547.6 19,883.8

(%Ch) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch)

2.3 314.1 -15.3

1.7 195.5 -39.2

1.1 123.3 -33.3

0.9 89.9 -27.4

0.7 77.5 -10.2

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

272.7 211.4 61.3

205.2 156.3 48.9

101.7 74.9 26.9

60.8 40.8 20.0

33.8 27.3 6.5

4.6

4.1

3.4

4.3

0.8 98.4 26.8

0.9 137.3 39.0

1.2 194.2 42.2

1.5 249.4 28.6

1.7 290.9 16.8

38.6 31.7 6.9

43.7 32.2 11.5

54.9 36.3 18.6

84.2 56.6 27.5

124.0 87.9 36.0

3.1

1.6

2.1

2.6

Housing

Consumer Prices (%Ch)

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

-0.2

1.3

F l o r id a S umm a r y T a b l e s Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch)

771.0 4.3 4.8

776.7 4.3 4.6

783.1 3.4 3.4

789.2 2.9 3.1

796.1 3.3 3.5

Personal Income and GSP 803.3 809.5 818.0 826.4 3.4 3.4 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.3 3.5 3.7

835.5 4.0 4.0

849.6 4.9 4.8

861.6 5.3 5.2

875.7 6.0 5.6

889.6 6.5 6.0

Personal Income (Bil. 2000$)

676.0

Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida(%Ch)

1.6 5.2 619.2 0.4

679.9 1.9 4.0 623.2 0.8

683.5 1.8 4.1 625.2 1.5

687.3 1.8 4.0 627.9 1.5

689.9 2.1 3.7 628.9 1.6

693.1 2.0 3.6 630.4 1.2

707.2 2.0 6.4 637.9 1.2

714.8 2.8 7.5 643.0 2.1

720.4 3.0 8.1 648.3 2.6

728.1 3.6 8.2 655.1 3.3

735.6 4.0 8.0 661.7 3.7

U.S.(%Ch) GSP (Bil. $)

0.8 775.8

1.2 781.8

1.4 786.9

(%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch)

3.5 683.6 1.3

3.8 686.5 1.5

3.9 689.0 2.0

1.2 0.2 10.7

1.1 -0.2 10.7

0.7 -0.2 10.8

9.1

9.2

9.3

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

695.3 1.7 3.8 629.7 0.7

699.3 1.7 4.7 631.8 0.6

703.1 1.9 5.5 634.2 0.8

1.8

1.3

0.6

0.4

0.7

1.1

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.2

791.1 3.3 691.9 1.9

797.2 2.8 695.1 1.7

804.5 2.9 699.0 1.8

812.9 3.3 703.4 2.1

823.9 4.2 710.3 2.7

835.6 4.8 717.6 3.2

848.0 5.4 725.2 3.7

861.3 6.0 733.1 4.2

875.4 6.2 741.7 4.4

889.4 6.4 750.3 4.6

904.6 6.7 759.7 4.8

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.9 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.3 10.1 9.9 9.6

2.1 1.0

2.2 1.1

2.3 1.1

9.3

9.2

9.1

8.9

8.7

8.5

9.4

9.1

8.8

8.3

8.1

7.8

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S.

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.8

2.0

2.1

2.2

Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods

0.9 3.1 -4.4 0.6 0.1

1.1 2.5 -2.1 2.0 0.3

1.2 0.5 -3.9 2.3 1.7

0.8 0.2 -5.3 1.8

1.0 0.0 -5.4 1.8

1.3 -0.1 -4.1 2.2

1.6 -0.2 -1.8 2.6

1.9 -0.4 1.3 2.4

2.2 -0.9 4.7 2.5

2.5 -1.4 8.1 2.5

2.7 -1.5 11.4 2.6

2.9 -1.3 13.5 2.7

2.9 -0.9 14.9 2.8

2.9 -0.6 15.8 2.9

0.0

-0.3

-0.5

-0.6

-0.5

-0.6

Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities

0.9 2.5 -1.3 0.8 0.1

2.9 3.0 -0.5 1.0 0.2

2.7 2.8 -0.2 1.4 1.1

2.8 2.5 1.6 0.9 1.1

2.9 2.8 2.2 1.4 1.3

3.5 3.1 2.4 1.9 1.6

4.1 3.1 2.6 2.2 1.7

3.9 3.3 2.7 2.1 1.4

4.0 3.6 3.1 2.1 1.1

4.0 4.0 3.1 1.7 1.0

4.1 4.1 3.0 1.2 0.7

4.2 4.2 3.0 0.9 0.7

4.5 3.9 2.8 0.5 0.7

4.6 3.6 2.9 0.6 0.6

0.8 2.5

1.5 2.2

2.1 2.0

1.9 1.9

2.0 1.8

2.2 1.7

3.2 1.8

4.4 1.8

5.8 1.6

7.4 1.7

8.4 2.1

8.8 2.0

8.6 1.9

8.2 1.8

5.0 -3.5 -6.5

3.7 -2.4 -1.1

3.6 0.8 -1.6

2.2 1.4 -2.3

2.8 1.0 -2.3

2.8 1.0 -2.5

2.2 0.7 -2.5

1.3 2.9 -2.5

0.4 4.6 -2.5

0.0 3.5 -2.5

-0.2 1.7 -2.5

-0.2 0.5 -2.5

0.0 0.5 -2.3

0.0 1.8 -2.2

0.0

-0.7

-1.4

-1.9

-1.5

-0.9

-0.3

0.2

0.6

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)

19,056.9 19,110.4 19,167.5 19,228.1 19,292.3 19,360.1 19,431.5 19,506.6 19,585.2 19,667.1 19,751.4 19,838.1 19,927.2 20,018.5

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

Net Migration (thous) (%Ch)

36.9 44.2

39.8 45.1

43.3 47.7

46.8 49.8

50.3 36.4

53.7 34.9

57.2 32.0

60.7 29.8

64.1 27.5

67.3 25.3

69.5 21.5

71.7 18.0

73.9 15.2

75.8 12.6

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

43.0

49.3

49.4

52.6

56.7

61.0

Housing 68.5 79.8

89.2

99.2

108.4

118.6

129.9

138.9

Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

33.0 10.0

34.1 15.2

34.5 14.9

35.4 17.2

36.7 19.9

38.6 22.4

44.3 24.2

52.7 27.1

60.9 28.3

68.7 30.5

75.4 33.0

83.8 34.8

93.2 36.8

99.4 39.6

3.4

3.0

1.9

1.1

1.4

1.7

Consumer Prices 1.9 2.2

2.1

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.7

(%Ch) *Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r id a S umm a r y T a b l e s Table 3. Employment Quarterly*

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7,247.0 7,256.3 7,265.5 7,289.2 7,318.5 7,350.0 7,383.0 7,426.6 7,477.7 7,532.8 7,584.9 7,638.4 7,691.6 7,750.0

Manufacturing

309.2

309.9

310.5

313.1

314.9

316.7

318.7

320.7

322.6

324.6

326.8

329.2

331.8

334.0

Durable Goods

203.8

204.5

205.3

208.0

209.7

211.7

213.8

216.0

218.1

220.2

222.6

225.2

227.8

230.2

Wood Products

8.2

8.1

8.3

8.5

8.9

9.0

9.2

9.4

9.7

10.0

10.4

10.9

11.2

Computer & Electronics

42.5

42.6

43.0

43.2

44.1

44.4

44.1

43.9

43.8

43.9

44.1

44.2

Transportation Equipment

33.6

34.1

34.6

35.4

36.1

36.8

37.5

38.1

38.6

39.2

39.6

40.1

40.5

40.8

105.4

105.3

105.2

105.1

105.0

104.8

104.7

104.5

104.4

104.3

104.1

103.9

103.8

28.2

28.3

28.4

28.6

28.7

28.8

28.9

29.0

29.1

29.2

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

6,937.7 6,946.5 6,955.0 6,976.0 7,003.6 7,033.3 7,064.3 7,105.9 7,155.1 7,208.1 7,258.1 7,309.2 7,359.8 7,415.9 5.5

5.6

5.5

5.4

Construction

332.4

327.6

321.1

317.1

314.3

314.2

315.5

321.2

329.2

339.5

351.3

364.4

378.2

393.0

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

229.4

230.6

232.2

233.9

235.9

237.8

239.5

241.7

244.4

247.2

249.4

251.8

253.8

256.0

Wholesale Trade

302.9

304.4

306.0

307.9

309.4

311.7

313.8

316.1

319.1

321.3

323.3

325.5

327.9

330.5

Retail Trade

935.1

935.9

937.4

942.4

947.8

954.1

958.2

962.2

967.3

970.2

970.6

972.5

976.0

Information

130.3

131.2

133.6

132.8

131.6

132.5

134.5

136.7

137.6

137.1

136.9

137.4

138.4

139.5

Prof. & Bus. Services

1,051.0 1,057.0 1,056.7 1,062.2 1,071.7 1,080.1 1,090.9 1,109.0 1,133.8 1,160.3 1,182.4 1,206.5 1,230.8 1,255.2

Admin. & Support

528.9

533.9

532.4

537.7

545.8

550.9

556.2

567.3

583.8

600.4

615.9

632.7

650.6

668.0

Prof. Sci & Tech

443.4

444.3

445.4

446.6

449.8

455.1

462.0

470.2

480.1

486.3

493.4

499.5

506.3

78.8

79.0

79.1

79.3

79.4

79.6

79.7

79.8

79.9

80.2

80.4

80.7

80.9

Financial Activities

469.3

469.7

471.1

472.8

475.2

477.2

479.0

479.4

480.3

481.8

482.3

482.9

483.9

484.8

Real Estate & Rent

155.7

156.4

157.3

158.4

159.6

160.4

160.9

161.5

162.3

163.2

164.0

164.9

165.8

166.8

Fin. & Insurance

313.6

313.3

313.8

314.4

315.6

316.9

318.1

317.9

318.0

318.6

318.3

318.1

318.0

Mgmt. of Co.

Edu. & Health Service

1,105.1 1,109.2 1,112.6 1,118.7 1,124.7 1,128.0 1,132.3 1,138.7 1,142.5 1,147.4 1,156.6 1,161.9 1,164.0 1,168.5

Education Services

149.8

149.5

148.2

146.9

145.9

145.1

144.3

143.6

143.0

Health Services

955.3

959.8

964.4

971.8

978.7

983.0

987.9

995.2

999.5 1,004.8 1,014.3 1,020.0 1,022.6 1,027.4

Leisure & Hospitality

961.0

964.6

972.3

980.5

987.6

991.9

994.0

993.6

991.6

991.5

991.6

991.1

991.4

Other Services

312.3

313.3

313.9

313.4

313.9

314.5

314.9

314.6

315.1

315.7

316.2

316.6

316.9

316.3

Government

142.6

142.3

141.9

141.5

141.2

1,103.4 1,097.3 1,092.5 1,088.6 1,086.0 1,085.8 1,086.3 1,087.2 1,088.7 1,090.7 1,092.5 1,094.5 1,096.8 1,099.2

Federal Gov't.

131.8

131.2

130.4

129.6

128.7

127.9

127.1

126.3

125.5

124.7

123.9

123.2

122.6

122.0

State & Local Gov't

971.6

966.1

962.2

959.1

957.2

957.8

959.1

960.9

963.2

966.0

968.6

971.3

974.2

977.2

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

F l o r id a S umm a r y T a b l e s Table 4. Employment Annual

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7,799.5

8,003.7

8,019.0

7,735.5

7,251.8

7,177.2

7229.7

7,305.8

7,455.0

7,666.2

Manufacturing

415.5

416.5

399.0

371.1

323.9

306.8

307.5

313.8

321.7

330.5

Durable Goods

281.0

284.7

269.2

249.4

214.4

201.8

202.7

208.7

217.0

226.4

Wood Products

22.4

21.6

17.0

12.8

9.1

8.4

8.3

8.4

9.3

10.6

Computer & Electronics

51.4

50.1

49.2

48.0

44.6

42.9

42.6

43.1

44.1

44.0

Transportation Equipment

45.6

45.7

44.6

42.5

34.9

33.5

35.7

38.3

40.3

134.5

131.8

129.8

121.7

109.4

105.0

104.8

105.1

104.6

104.0

32.8

31.4

31.7

29.7

27.9

27.4

28.0

28.6

28.9

29.1

7,384.0

7,587.2

7,620.0

7,364.4

6,927.9

6,870.4

6,922.2

6,992.0

7,133.4

7,335.8

7.1

6.6

6.7

6.2

5.5

5.3

5.5

5.4

Construction

633.0

677.8

618.5

511.5

392.3

346.2

332.3

316.7

326.3

371.7

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

247.4

250.9

251.2

245.8

229.4

224.2

228.5

235.0

243.2

252.8

Wholesale Trade

341.4

351.3

356.7

345.6

317.9

307.5

304.3

308.8

317.6

326.8

Retail Trade

993.8

1,013.8

1,018.2

988.6

922.8

924.3

932.2

945.4

964.5

972.3

Information

163.2

161.8

161.3

155.9

142.4

135.3

131.3

132.6

136.5

138.0

1,137.9

1,186.8

1,194.6

1,121.3

1,031.7

1,036.8

1,046.3

1,067.7

1,123.5

1,218.7

Admin. & Support

629.2

655.8

653.3

582.1

520.5

528.4

526.4

541.7

576.9

641.8

Prof. Sci & Tech

431.1

451.6

460.2

456.4

431.3

430.6

441.5

446.8

466.8

496.4

77.6

79.3

81.1

82.8

80.0

77.8

78.5

79.2

79.7

80.5

Financial Activities

535.8

552.7

547.2

521.9

483.4

470.1

468.3

474.1

480.1

483.5

Real Estate & Rent

176.7

182.5

178.1

169.8

154.9

150.6

154.3

158.9

162.0

165.4

Fin. & Insurance

359.1

370.2

369.1

352.1

328.5

319.6

314.0

315.2

318.2

318.1

Edu. & Health Service

969.0

994.8

1,025.4

1,047.0

1,059.8

1,078.9

1,100.9

1,121.0

1,140.2

1,162.7

Education Services

124.7

128.3

134.1

138.0

143.0

151.2

150.2

146.5

143.4

141.7

Health Services

844.4

866.5

891.3

909.0

916.9

927.7

950.7

974.5

996.8

1,021.1

Leisure & Hospitality

939.2

953.3

972.2

958.8

915.0

916.8

955.8

983.1

992.7

991.4

Other Services

334.9

338.1

345.6

335.4

312.6

310.2

312.0

313.9

315.1

316.5

1,081.2

1,099.4

1,122.4

1,126.5

1,115.2

1,114.8

1,104.8

1,088.2

1,095.7

Federal Gov't.

128.7

127.8

128.0

129.8

132.7

141.9

132.0

129.2

125.9

122.9

State & Local Gov't

952.6

971.6

994.4

996.7

982.5

972.9

972.7

959.1

962.3

972.8

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Prof. & Bus. Services

Mgmt. of Co.

Government

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r id a S umm a r y T a b l e s Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly*

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

771.0

776.7

783.1

789.2

796.1

803.3

809.5

818.0

826.4

835.5

849.6

861.6

875.7

889.6

Wages & Salaries

337.0

339.4

342.0

345.2

348.9

352.8

356.9

361.5

366.4

371.5

376.8

382.1

387.4

393.1

Other Labor Income

77.3

77.6

78.4

78.8

79.4

80.3

81.4

82.2

83.1

84.1

85.6

86.7

87.7

88.8

Nonfarm

41.9

42.5

42.9

43.3

43.7

44.2

44.7

45.5

46.3

47.2

48.3

49.4

50.3

51.2

0.5

0.7

0.8

0.9

0.8

Farm Property Income

204.4

206.1

208.9

210.4

211.6

212.6

213.5

214.5

215.5

216.8

218.9

223.0

229.4

235.0

Transfer Payments

154.4

155.0

156.6

157.5

158.9

160.3

162.1

163.9

165.3

166.7

173.0

174.2

175.5

176.9

46.7

46.6

48.4

49.0

49.3

49.8

52.0

52.6

53.1

53.9

56.0

56.7

57.5

58.5

Social Insurance

Billions 2005 $ Personal Income

676.0

679.9

683.5

687.3

689.9

693.1

695.3

699.3

703.1

707.2

714.8

720.4

728.1

735.6

Wages & Salaries

295.5

297.1

298.5

300.6

302.3

304.4

306.5

309.1

311.7

314.4

317.0

319.5

322.1

325.1

Other Labor Income

67.8

67.9

68.5

68.7

68.8

69.3

69.9

70.3

70.7

71.2

72.0

72.5

72.9

73.5

Nonfarm

36.8

37.2

37.4

37.7

37.9

38.2

38.4

38.9

39.4

40.0

40.6

41.3

41.8

42.3

0.5

0.6

0.7

Farm Property Income

179.2

180.4

182.3

183.2

183.3

183.5

183.4

183.3

183.6

184.2

186.5

190.7

194.3

Transfer Payments

135.4

135.7

136.6

137.2

137.7

138.3

139.2

140.1

140.6

141.1

145.6

145.7

145.9

146.2

40.9

40.8

42.2

42.6

42.8

43.0

44.6

45.0

45.2

45.6

47.1

47.4

47.8

48.3

939.29

967.26

Social Insurance

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

998.97 1043.89 1091.61 1142.27 1198.09 1243.77 1277.82 1289.45 1317.97 1348.48 1388.18 1412.80

Retail Sales (Billions $)

265.9

268.3

270.6

273.3

277.5

281.3

284.9

288.4

292.0

295.2

299.2

303.6

308.3

312.9

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

233.1

234.8

236.2

238.0

240.4

242.7

244.7

246.5

248.4

249.8

251.7

253.9

256.4

258.8

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

F l o r id a S umm a r y T a b l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Billions Current Dollars

Personal Income

633.2

690.3

721.1

739.4

722.3

737.5

767.9

792.9

822.4

869.1

Wages & Salaries

310.3

333.1

344.7

341.0

323.7

325.8

335.5

347.2

364.1

384.9

Other Labor Income

69.5

72.9

73.1

73.7

74.0

75.5

77.2

79.3

82.7

87.2

Nonfarm

42.0

45.1

43.7

42.1

39.4

40.6

41.9

43.5

45.9

49.8

1.5

1.2

0.9

0.7

0.5

0.8

156.4

181.7

196.5

208.3

194.2

194.3

203.2

210.9

215.1

226.6

Transfer Payments

98.1

104.4

111.2

122.5

137.9

149.4

154.0

158.3

164.5

174.9

Social Insurance

46.2

49.9

50.9

50.8

49.4

50.4

46.4

49.1

52.9

57.2

Farm Property Income

Billions 2005 $

Personal Income

633.1

671.9

683.5

678.7

661.7

663.8

675.6

688.5

701.2

724.7

Wages & Salaries

310.3

324.3

326.7

313.0

296.5

293.2

295.2

301.5

310.4

320.9

Other Labor Income

69.5

71.0

69.3

67.7

67.8

68.0

67.9

68.8

70.5

72.7

Nonfarm

42.0

43.9

41.4

38.7

36.1

36.5

36.8

37.8

39.2

41.5

1.5

1.2

0.8

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.7

156.3

176.8

186.3

191.2

177.9

174.8

178.8

183.1

183.4

188.9

Transfer Payments

98.1

101.6

105.4

112.4

126.3

134.4

135.5

137.4

140.3

145.8

Social Insurance

46.2

48.6

48.3

46.6

45.2

45.3

40.8

42.7

45.1

47.7

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations 1449.69 1416.66 1242.20

951.97

694.16

849.49

Farm Property Income

931.91 1069.19 1252.28 1366.86

Retail Sales (Billions $)

241.4

257.6

262.3

256.7

236.2

249.4

265.6

275.7

290.1

306.0

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

241.4

250.8

248.7

235.6

216.4

224.5

233.6

239.3

247.4

255.2

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r id a C h a r t s

Florida Personal Income 12% 10% 8% 7% 5% 3% 1% -0% -2% -4%

(% change year ago)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Florida Real Gross State Product (% change year ago)

8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

F l o r id a C h a r t s

Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate 14.0%

(%)

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate

Florida Construction Employment 700.0

(Thousands)

600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r id a C h a r t s

Florida Manufacturing Employment (Thousands)

500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0 250.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment (Thousands)

1650.0 1600.0 1550.0 1500.0 1450.0 1400.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

F l o r id a C h a r t s

Florida Financial Activities Employment 560.0

(Thousands)

540.0 520.0 500.0 480.0 460.0 440.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Florida Professional & Business Services Employment 1300.0

(Thousands)

1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r id a C h a r t s

Florida Education & Health Services Employment 1200.0 1150.0 1100.0 1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0 750.0

(Thousands)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Florida Information Employment (Thousands)

190.0 180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

F l o r id a C h a r t s

Florida Gross State Product 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

(% change year ago)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL Gross State Product

Florida Employment 8200.0 8000.0 7800.0 7600.0 7400.0 7200.0 7000.0 6800.0 6600.0

(Thousands)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Wage & Salary Employment

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r id a C h a r t s

Florida Leisure & Hospitality Employment (Thousands)

1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Florida Federal Government Employment (Thousands)

160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Florida State & Local Government Employment (Thousands)

1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

F l o r id a C h a r t s

Florida Housing Starts 300.0

(thousands)

250.0

200.0

150.0

100.0

50.0

0.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Total Private Housing Starts 30 year Mortgage Rates

New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations 60%

(% change year ago)

40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Florida Consumer Price Index 6%

(% change year ago)

4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL CPI Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r id a N e ws S umm a r i e s

Business organizations reiterate their opposition to mandatory E-Verify • Jose Gonzales of the Associated Industries of Florida said that requiring businesses to participate in E-Verify would be an overly burdensome regulation for many of Florida’s small businesses. • Mike Carlton of the Florida Fruit and Vegetable Association said that a majority of Florida’s agricultural workforce is unauthorized and that E-Verify could make it difficult for farmers to hire workers. • A law in Georgia that mandated E-Verify reduced the agricultural workforce by up to 50%, causing there to not be enough workers to pick the crops. Source: The Florida Independent, July 6, 2011 How Florida kept its AAA rating • While Standard & Poor’s downgraded the nation’s credit rating from AAA to AA+, the State of Florida was one of 13 states that retained its AAA credit rating, the highest that can be given. • S&P cites Florida’s most recent budget, which addressed the gap between spending and revenues by cutting $4 billion, as the reason for its stable outlook. • Several local governments, such as Miami-Dade and Broward Counties, have lower credit ratings. Source: South Florida Business Journal, August 11, 2011 Florida college dropout causes $151M loss • Florida’s college dropout rate caused a loss of $132 million in earnings income and $19 million in federal taxes in 2010, according to an analysis by the American Institutes for Research. • The study examined 1.1 million full-time students across the country who entered in 2002 seeking bachelor degrees. • Mark Schneider, a co-author of the report, notes that the study only represents one year and one graduating class, and so the overall costs of low graduation rates are much higher as they accumulate year after year. Source: Orlando Business Journal, August 22, 2011 Florida gets funds to fuel business loans • Florida will receive $97.7 million in federal funds as part of the Small Business Jobs Act signed into law last fall which aimed to create jobs by expanding small-business lending. • Florida will use the money to make equity investments in small businesses, provide loan guarantees, and provide other services to encourage lending to small businesses. • The funds are expected to generate at least $10 in new lending per $1 of federal money, with a total economic impact of almost $1 billion. Source: Orlando Sentinel, August 28, 2011

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

Fla. Forgave $109 million in taxes and fines • Florida wrote off more than $109 million in taxes, fees, and fines owed to the state as “uncollectable.” • Examples of debts forgiven include unpaid sales, corporate and unemployment compensation taxes, county health treatment provided to individuals, and environmental fines. • A spokesperson from the Department of Revenue said this allows the state to focus on collecting current debts rather than old or uncollectable debts. Source: Palm Beach Post, September 15, 2011 Only 2.5% of Florida welfare applicants test positive for drugs • Preliminary figures show that 2.5% of the 2,000 applicants for Temporary Assistance for Needy Families since July tested positive for drugs. • The law requiring drug testing to receive the benefits was passed with the belief that it will save the state money by weeding out recipients who are on drugs. • Opponents of the law assert that the cost of the drug tests, which the state pays for when results are negative, outweigh the savings, and that it violates the constitutional right of unreasonable searches.

Source: Bradenton.com, September 28, 2011 Florida’s new approach to creating prosperity • Florida’s new Department of Economic Opportunity officially came to life on Saturday, October 1st. • The Department attempts to improve the State’s economy by combining three former agencies and streamlining the bureaucratic process. • The Director of the DEO is Doug Darling, who has been in Florida’s state government for fifteen years, and has a background in the United States Marine Corps.

Source: First Coast News, September 29, 2011 Plan to privatize some Florida prisons being challenged in court • The Police Benevolent Association, a union representing corrections officers, is challenging the constitutionality of a part of this year’s budget that required prisons in eighteen counties to turn over control to private vendors. • The Legislative Budget Commission would only approve the privatization of a prison if a vendor can prove at least a 7% cost savings. • An estimated 3,500 correction officers may be at risk of losing their jobs when private companies take over starting in 2012.

Source: St. Petersburg Times, September 30, 2011

D e l t o n a – D a y t o n a B e a ch – O r mo n d B e a ch

Profiles The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is comprised only of Volusia County. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway, which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500. Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 494,593 as of 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 254,896 in June of 2011 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 11.0% as of June 2011, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 28,125 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). Top Area Employers: • Volusia County Schools – 8,080 employees • Florida Hospital (All Divisions) – 4,248 employees • Halifax Health – 3,957 employees • Volusia County Government – 3,280 employees • Publix – 2,486 employees • State of Florida – 2,361 employees • Walmart – 2,160 employees • Daytona State College – 1,797 employees • U.S. Government – 1,422 employees • Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University – 1,176 employees Source: Volusia County Government Department of Economic Development, 2011

O u t l oo k S umm a r i e s The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is expected to show modest growth in most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast. Personal income is expected to average 4.3 percent growth, while the per capita income level will be 31.2. Average annual wage will be the lowest level of the studied areas at 39.1. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.8 percent. Population growth will be the lowest of the studied metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) at 0.6 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 13,463.70 (Mill). The employment growth rate is expected to average 1.7 percent each year. Unemployment will average 10.6 percent annually. The Deltona MSA will experience the most growth in the Professional and Business Services sector, with an average growth rate of 4.1 percent annually. The Leisure sector will see the highest growth in the Deltona MSA at 3.0 percent annually. The Education and Health Services sector follows with an annual growth rate of 2.0 percent. The State and Local Government and Federal Government sectors will experience a decline of -0.1 and -6.7 percent, respectively.

M e t r o N e ws S umm a r i e s Newest UCF business incubator aims to create jobs in Volusia • UCF opened its ninth incubator in the Daytona area. It is a $1.4 million investment to create local jobs in the area. The incubator has assisted over 140 companies and produced 1,600+ jobs. • This entrepreneurial support system is located in the former customs office at the Daytona International Airport. Officials hope that the location will allow for easy access to the aviation researchers, whose office is next door. • The incubator is intended to help businesses endure and flourish in the modern economy. Source: Orlando Sentinel, July 28, 2011

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

D e l t o n a – D a y t o n a B e a ch – O r mo n d B e a ch

Daytona Beach getting 2 new community centers • Two new community centers will be built: one will be in Derbyshire Park and the other in Cyprus Street Park. • Inside the Midtown Cultural and Education Center, there will be facilities for basketball, dance, art, culinary activities, photo development, and more. The facility will be 22,000-sq.ft. and cost $4.5 million. • The other facility, the Yvonne Scarlett-Golden Center will replace the Derbyshire YMCA that closed in 2007. There will be a library, a gym, an outdoor amphitheatre, an inside theatre, a reading center, a photography development room, classrooms, dance studios, and much more. It will cost an estimated $2.5 million. Source: The Daytona Beach News-Journal, August 30,2011 DeBary residents upset over Volusia County Council’s new voting districts • Volusia County Council members decided on an arrangement that splits DeBary between two West Volusia districts. • The decision satisfied concerns from Lake Helen, DeLeon Springs, Enterprise and Deltona. It was impossible to please all sides because of a legal constraint to maintain the five districts close to a population of 99,000. • The decision does not change where students go to school or any of the services residents receive. Source: The Daytona Beach News-Journal, September 15, 2011 Daytona Beach company continues to add workers • DuvaSwako, a medical billing company, has hired more than forty employees in the past year. Its clients include hospitals and physician groups all over the country. 28

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

• The company, which already staffs 140 employees, is planning to hire ten more with the addition of a new client, North East Tennessee Emergency Physicians. • The company president associates the large expansion with the marketing strategy the company implemented two years ago. The company claims it has not lost one customer in its fourteen years of operation. Source: The Daytona Beach News-Journal, September 28, 2011 Study to look at Daytona entertainment zone’s potential for new hotels • Fishkind & Associates, an economic consulting firm, will study the potential of and the financing options for development in Daytona’s beachside area. • After many real estate and investment inquiries, the city and county asked the business leaders to sponsor the study. The possibilities include a convention center hotel and perhaps multiple hotels. • The convention center project fits into the city’s plan to revamp the Ocean Center. The goal is to double the number of hotel rooms to 1,500. • The alliance hopes to make jobs and boost the tourism industry. The alliance hopes that the plan is feasible at this time. If it is not, they would like Fishkind to develop a plan to make it fiscally effective. Source: The Daytona Beach News-Journal, September 28, 2011

D e l t o n a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; D a y t o n a B e a ch â&#x20AC;&#x201C; O r mo n d B e a ch Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

1.2

1.4

1.6

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product 15000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

13000.0 12000.0 11000.0 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate

10000.0 9000.0

Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment 175.0 170.0 165.0 160.0 155.0 150.0 145.0 140.0

14000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.8

(Thousands)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Deltona Payroll Employment

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Gross Metro Product

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income 15.0% 12.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% -3.0% -6.0%

(percent change year ago)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

D e l t o n a – D a y t o n a B e a ch – O r mo n d B e a ch

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

October 2011

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

14.3 6.3 5.5 8.8

15.3 7.3 5.9 9.3

16.1 5.4 6.1 10

16.3 1.1 6 10.3

16 -1.9 5.7 10.3

16.4 2.2 5.7 10.6

17.1 4.5 5.9 11.2

17.7 3.7 6.1 11.6

18.3 3.5 6.4 11.9

19.3 5.4 6.8 12.5

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

14.3 3.2

14.9 4.4

15.3 2.7

15 -2.1

14.7 -2.1

14.7 0.4

15 2.1

15.4 2.3

15.6 1.6

16.1 3.1

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

29.3 29.3

30.9 30.1

32.3 30.7

32.8 30.1

32.3 29.6

33.1 29.8

34.6 30.5

35.8 31.1

36.8 31.3

38.2 31.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago

32 3.4

34 6.1

35.3 3.8

35.9 1.8

35.8 -0.5

36.6 2.4

37.6 2.7

38.5 2.5

39.6 2.9

40.8 2.9

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

170.8 3.9

173.9 1.8

172.5 -0.8

166.9 -3.3

157.4 -5.7

154.7 -1.7

155.9 0.8

158.2 1.5

161.4 2

165.3 2.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

10.2 4.3

10.6 3.9

10.3 -2.6

9.1 -12.1

7.8 -13.9

7.4 -4.8

7.4 -1.3

7.4 0.9

7.6 2.9

7.9 2.9

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

160.6 3.9

163.3 1.6

162.2 -0.7

157.8 -2.7

149.6 -5.2

147.2 -1.6

148.6 0.9

150.8 1.5

153.8 2

157.5 2.4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

14.8 14.5

15.9 7.3

14.2 -10.3

11.3 -20.2

8.8 -22.2

7.7 -12.9

7.2 -6.1

6.9 -4.3

7.1 2.8

8.1 13.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

33.2 3.7

33.2 0

33.6 1.2

32.5 -3.3

30.1 -7.2

30 -0.4

30.1 0.4

30.5 1.4

31.3 2.5

31.7 1.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.8 26 2.4

5 25.9 2.4

5.3 25.8 2.5

5.2 24.9 2.4

4.9 23.2 2.1

4.7 23.4 1.9

4.7 23.5 1.9

4.8 23.6 2

4.9 24.2 2

5.1 24.4 2.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.2 -3.3

2.4 8.4

2.5 5.2

2.6 3.6

2.3 -11.9

2 -10.8

1.9 -6.3

1.9 1.3

2 3.8

2.1 2.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.3 5.5

7.9 7.2

8 2.2

7.7 -4.1

7.1 -7.8

7.1 -0.5

7 -0.8

7.1 1.4

7.2 1.6

7.3 0.7

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

19.6 8.1

19.4 -0.9

18 -7.1

17.4 -3.2

17.5 0.2

16.8 -3.7

16.7 -0.5

17.3 3.4

18.2 5.3

19.7 8.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

30.5 -0.7

30.5 0.2

30.6 0.2

31.9 4.2

31.5 -1.1

31.5 0.1

32.2 2.2

32.9 2.2

33.5 1.6

34.1 1.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

21.7 2.9

21.6 -0.4

22.6 4.6

22.5 -0.2

21.2 -5.8

21.5 1.5

23.4 8.6

24.2 3.5

24.3 0.6

24.2 -0.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8.2 0.1

8.3 1.2

8.1 -1.7

8.2 1

8.5 3.1

8.4 -1

8.4 -0.2

8.5 1.3

8.6 0.9

8.6 0.8

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 1.2

1.4 -0.6

1.4 0

1.4 2.4

1.5 6.1

1.2 -18.5

1.2 -4.7

1.2 -1.9

1.1 -1.8

21.8 3.5

22.8 4.4

23.1 1.5

22.2 -4

21.1 -5

20.6 -2.3

20.3 -1.5

20.2 -0.6

20.3 0.6

20.6 1.3

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

13244.2

13734.7

13814

13364.8

12802.7

12859.5

12939.5

13195.6

13569.4

14150.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

487.4 1.9

495.1 1.6

498.7 0.7

497.5 -0.2

495.5 -0.4

494.2 -0.3

493.5 -0.2

494.8 0.3

498.7 0.8

505.2 1.3

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

242.7 4.3

247.2 1.8

250.7 1.4

254.1 1.4

253.3 -0.3

253.5 0.1

253 -0.2

253.3 0.1

255.4 0.8

258.4 1.2

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.6

3.2

6.5

10.5

11.1

10.8

10.7

9.8

6349 5118 1231

4114 3100 1014

2204 1585 619

1361 1035 326

723 664 60

721 656 65

1124 564 560

1507 843 663

2142 1621 521

3249 2546 703

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

D e l t o n a – D a y t o n a B e a ch – O r mo n d B e a ch

Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

October 2011

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

17.2 4.8 5.9 11.2

17.3 4.8 6 11.3

17.5 4 6 11.4

17.6 3.4 6.1 11.5

17.8 3.6 6.2 11.6

18 3.7 6.2 11.7

18.1 3.4 6.3 11.8

18.2 3.5 6.4 11.8

18.4 3.5 6.5 11.9

18.6 3.6 6.6 12

18.9 4.7 6.7 12.3

19.2 5.1 6.7 12.4

19.5 5.7 6.8 12.6

19.7 6.2 6.9 12.8

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

15.1 2.1

15.2 2.5

15.3 2.3

15.4 2.4

15.5 2.2

15.5 1.8

15.6 1.5

15.7 1.6

15.9 2.5

16 2.8

16.2 3.3

16.3 3.7

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

34.8 30.5

35.1 30.7

35.4 30.9

35.7 31.1

35.9 31.1

36.2 31.2

36.4 31.2

36.6 31.3

36.9 31.4

37.1 31.4

37.6 31.7

38 31.8

38.4 32

38.9 32.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

37.7 1.5

37.9 2.4

38.2 2.5

38.4 2.2

38.7 2.6

38.9 2.7

39.2 2.8

39.5 2.9

39.8 2.9

40.1 2.9

40.3 2.9

40.6 2.8

40.9 2.9

41.2 3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

156.6 1.9

157 1.8

157.2 1.8

157.9 1.4

158.6 1.3

159.3 1.5

160 1.8

160.9 1.9

161.8 2

162.8 2.2

163.9 2.5

164.8 2.4

165.7 2.4

166.8 2.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

7.3 -1.4

7.3 -1

7.3 -0.7

7.4 -0.4

7.4 2.1

7.5 2.5

7.6 3.1

7.6 2.8

7.7 2.8

7.8 2.8

7.9 3

7.9 3.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

149.3 2.1

149.7 2

149.8 1.9

150.5 1.5

151.1 1.2

151.8 1.4

152.4 1.7

153.3 1.9

154.2 2

155.1 2.2

156.1 2.4

157 2.4

157.9 2.4

158.9 2.4

7.3 -3.5

7.2 -1.6

7 -3.2

6.9 -4.3

6.9 -5.5

6.8 -4.4

6.9 -1.9

7 1

7.2 4.4

7.4 7.7

7.6 11

7.9 13

8.2 14.4

8.5 15.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

30 0.1

30.1 0.3

30.2 0.1

30.4 0.6

30.7 2.2

30.9 2.8

31.1 2.9

31.2 2.7

31.4 2.5

31.6 2

31.6 1.7

31.6 1.3

31.7 0.9

31.8 0.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.7 23.4 1.9

4.8 23.6 1.9

4.8 23.7 2

4.8 23.9 2

4.9 24 2

4.9 24.1 2

5 24.3 2

5 24.4 2.1

5.1 24.4 2.1

5.2 24.5 2.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.9 -5

1.9 -5.4

1.9 -1.2

1.9 3.4

1.9 1.3

1.9 1.7

2 1.4

2 3.8

2 5.7

2 4.5

2 2.9

2 1.5

2.1 1.4

2.1 2.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7 -0.1

7 0.4

7.1 0.7

7.1 1

7.1 1.8

7.2 2.1

7.2 2

7.2 1.7

7.2 1.4

7.3 1.2

7.3 0.8

7.3 0.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

17.1 2.6

17.1 3

17.1 5.4

17.2 4.6

17.4 1.7

17.5 2.2

17.7 3.4

18 4.6

18.4 6

18.8 7.4

19.2 8.1

19.5 8.5

19.9 8.2

20.3 7.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

32.4 3.2

32.6 3.5

32.7 2.4

32.9 2.4

33.1 2.2

33.2 1.7

33.2 1.8

33.5 1.8

33.6 1.5

33.7 1.5

33.9 2.1

34.1 1.8

34.1 1.7

34.3 1.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

23.7 10.8

23.8 7.6

23.9 5.5

24.1 3.2

24.3 2.6

24.4 2.6

24.4 2

24.4 1

24.3 0

24.3 -0.4

24.3 -0.6

24.2 -0.7

24.2 -0.6

8.4 0.6

8.4 -0.2

8.5 1.1

8.5 2

8.5 1.1

8.5 0.9

8.6 0.9

8.6 0.8

8.6 1

8.6 0.9

8.6 0.5

1.2 -19.4

1.2 -10.8

1.2 -9.8

1.2 -5.3

1.2 -1.5

1.2 -1.7

1.2 -1.6

1.2 -1.8

1.2 -2

1.2 -2.1

1.1 -2

1.1 -1.8

1.1 -1.7

1.1 -1.6

20.4 -0.5

20.3 -0.5

20.2 0.6

20.2 -1

20.2 -1.2

20.2 -0.6

20.2 -0.1

20.3 0.4

20.4 0.9

20.4 1.2

20.5 1.3

20.6 1.4

20.6 1.3

20.7 1.3

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

13003

13059

13099

13162

13224

13298

13374

13503

13633

13768

13918

14071

14222

14390

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

493.2 -0.2

493.5 -0.1

493.8 0

494.3 0.2

495.1 0.4

496 0.5

496.8 0.6

497.9 0.7

499.3 0.8

500.8 1

502.4 1.1

504.2 1.3

506 1.3

507.9 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

252.4 0.1

252.6 -0.5

252.7 -0.1

253.1 -0.4

253.5 0.4

253.7 0.5

254.2 0.6

254.9 0.7

255.7 0.9

256.8 1.2

257.3 1.2

258 1.2

258.8 1.2

259.7 1.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%)

10.9

10.8

10.9

10.8

10.7

10.5

10.2

9.7

9.4

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1124 521 603

1448 629 819

1383 704 679

1459 795 664

1555 891 663

1631 983 648

1757 1198 559

1974 1501 473

2281 1782 499

2557 2005 552

2809 2189 620

3098 2429 669

3425 2699 726

3663 2867 796

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Gainesville

Profiles The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist counties and is located in the northcentral portion of the state. This metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history museum. Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 264,275 as of 2010 Census (U.S. Census Bureau) • Alachua County population estimate of 247,336 as of 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Gilchrist County population estimate of 16,939 as of 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 138,290 in 2011 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 8.3% as of June 2011, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 11,471 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database)

O u t l oo k S umm a r i e s The Gainesville MSA is expected to show modest growth in all of the economic indicators measured in this forecast. Personal income growth will see a 3.7% growth while per capita income level is expected to average 32.7. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.9 percent, while the average annual wage level will be at 44.2. Population growth will average 0.8 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be the second lowest of the studied MSAs at a level of 9,031.28 (Mill). Gainesville will see an employment growth rate of 0.8 percent annually. The Gainesville MSA will maintain the lowest unemployment rate of the twelve studied, at 7.6 percent. The fastest growing sector in the area will be the Professional and Business Services sector, with an average growth rate of 4.0 percent annually. This is followed by the Leisure sector with an average annual growth rate of 2.7 percent. The Information, State and Local Government, and Federal Government sectors will experience a decline, with annual growth rates of -0.6, -0.6, and -4.5 percent, respectively.

Top Area Employers:

M e t r o N e ws S umm a r i e s

• University of Florida – 14,723 employees

County wants to stretch $1.03M for home program

• Shands Hospital – 13,011 employees • Veterans Affairs Medical Center – 4,317 employees • Alachua County School Board – 4,299 employees • City of Gainesville – 2,200 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 2,056 employees • Alachua County Government – 2,029 employees • North Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,700 employees • Nationwide Insurance Company – 1,300 employees • Santa Fe Community College – 796 employees Source: Alachua County, Shands Hospital

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

• Gainesville has received $1.03 million to continue its Neighborhood Stabilization Program, which previously purchased and renovated twenty homes to sell to low income residents. • The county has revised the program to save costs, lowering the maximum purchase price to $75,000 from $110,000 and adding a stricter requirement for participants, most importantly that they pay back mortgage assistance if they resell the home within twenty years. Source: The Gainesville Sun, July 18, 2011

Gainesville

County, Airport Authority may work together on business park plan • After plans to develop the current fairgrounds and an area by the regional airport failed to stimulate interest from the private sector, the Alachua County Commission and the Airport Authority are considering jointly developing the area. • Some of the land is currently owned by the Gainesville City commission, so they would need approval from that body to go through with any plans agreed upon. Source: The Gainesville Sun, August 21, 2011

Alachua firm gets $1.5 million gene therapy grant • University of Florida ophthalmology professor Dr. William Hauswirth and the Oregon Health & Science University Casey Eye Institute are teaming up with Alachua’s Applied Genetic Technologies Corporation to research treatment for a genetic eye condition. • They have received $1.5 million from the Foundation Fighting Blindness for the study. • X-linked Retinoschisis affects thousands of boys between the ages of 5 and 10 each year. Source: The Gainesville Sun, September 23, 2011

Shands announces opening of chest pain ER • The new ER is planned to help deal with the average of 25 patients a day that come into the old ER complaining of chest pain. • By streamlining responses to these patients, Shands hopes to reduce the average time these patients spend in the ER to 12 hours or less. • The new specialized ER is hoped to expand the capacity of the regular ER by 10%. Source: The Gainesville Sun, August 24, 2011 GP closing Hawthorne plywood mill, eliminating 400 jobs • Georgia Pacific is closing a Hawthorne plywood mill, which currently employs about 400 people. • Work will stop on November 7. Salaried workers will be laid off, and hourly workers will negotiate benefits with the union. • GP cites weak demand as the reason for closing the mill, and says it may re-open if demand improves. Source: The Gainesville Sun, September 9, 2011

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Gainesville Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate 12.0% 10.0%

(percent)

9500.0

(Millions 2000 $)

8000.0 7500.0 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

125.0 120.0

2.5

8500.0

130.0

115.0

Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product

7000.0 6500.0

Gainesville Payroll Employment 135.0

1.5

9000.0

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Gainesville Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Gross Metro Product

Gainesville Real Personal Income 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Personal Income

Gainesville

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

October 2011

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

7.7 8.2 4.6 3.1

8.3 7.9 4.9 3.4

8.8 5.6 5.1 3.6

9.2 4.3 5.3 3.9

9.2 0 5.2 4

9.4 2.4 5.2 4.1

9.8 4.2 5.4 4.4

10 2.7 5.6 4.5

10.3 3 5.8 4.5

10.8 4.7 6.1 4.8

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

7.7 5.1

8.1 5

8.3 2.8

8.4 1

8.4 -0.2

8.4 0.6

8.6 1.9

8.7 1.4

8.8 1.1

9 2.4

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

30.7 30.7

32.5 31.6

33.8 32

34.9 32.1

34.7 31.8

35.5 31.9

36.8 32.4

37.6 32.7

38.4 32.7

39.7 33.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago

35.2 5.2

36.9 5.1

38.2 3.4

39.1 2.5

40.5 3.5

41.2 1.6

42.4 2.8

43.4 2.6

44.7 3

46.1 3

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

130.2 1.2

132.3 1.6

134.2 1.4

133.5 -0.5

127.6 -4.4

126.7 -0.7

127.1 0.3

127.4 0.3

128.8 1.1

130.9 1.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

5.1 -0.1

5.7 11

5.8 2

5.6 -4.3

4.7 -16

4.4 -5.2

4.4 -1

4.5 1.6

4.6 3.1

4.8 3.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

125 1.3

126.6 1.3

128.3 1.4

127.9 -0.3

122.9 -3.9

122.3 -0.5

122.7 0.3

122.9 0.2

124.2 1

126.1 1.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

6.2 6.4

6.5 5.3

6.5 0.9

5.7 -13.2

4.6 -18.3

4.3 -7.5

4.1 -5.2

3.9 -5.2

3.9 1.6

4.4 12.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

18.9 3.5

19.5 3.3

20.2 4

19.7 -2.8

18.3 -7

17.9 -2.2

18.4 2.6

18.7 1.8

19.1 2

19.2 0.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

2.7 13.8 2.4

2.7 14.1 2.6

2.8 14.9 2.6

2.8 14.2 2.7

2.6 13.3 2.4

2.5 13.1 2.3

2.4 13.6 2.4

2.4 13.7 2.5

2.5 14 2.5

2.6 14 2.6

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2 -5.8

2 -2.9

2 2.6

1.9 -7

1.6 -13.8

1.5 -6.6

1.4 -4.7

1.4 -1.3

1.4 2.4

1.5 1.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.2 1

6.5 4

6.4 -0.5

6.2 -3.3

6 -3.6

6.1 1.2

6 -1.9

6 0.6

6.1 1.3

6.1 0.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

10.9 6.1

11.1 1.4

10.6 -4.4

10.7 1.8

10.3 -3.9

10.3 -0.1

10.5 2

10.6 0.7

11.2 5.2

12 8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

21.4 2.1

21.4 0.1

21.3 -0.6

21.9 3

22 0.2

22.1 0.7

22.2 0.5

22.5 1

22.7 1.2

23.1 1.4

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

13.7 5.9

13.4 -2

14 4.1

14.5 3.7

13.4 -7.2

12.9 -3.9

13.9 7.5

14.4 3.7

14.5 0.4

14.4 -0.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

4.5 -3.1

4.7 2.6

4.8 3.7

4.8 -0.5

4.5 -6.1

4.4 -3.1

4.4 0.6

4.4 0.5

4.4 0.4

4.5 0.4

3.7 5.9

3.7 2.1

3.8 3.1

4 5.2

4.3 5.4

4.7 10.5

4.2 -10

4.1 -3

4 -2.6

3.9 -2.5

37.6 -3.3

37.9 0.9

38.6 1.8

38.5 -0.3

37.9 -1.6

38.1 0.5

37.6 -1.3

37 -1.6

36.9 -0.2

37.1 0.6

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

8320.9

8601.2

8934.3

8897.7

8654.4

8793.8

8829.2

8889.2

9054.8

9351.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

250.7 1.8

256.2 2.2

259.7 1.4

262.2 0.9

263.9 0.7

264.5 0.2

265.4 0.3

266.9 0.6

269.6 1

273 1.3

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

130 2.7

132 1.6

135.7 2.8

139 2.4

138.1 -0.6

139 0.7

139.4 0.3

138.7 -0.5

139.2 0.4

140.1 0.6

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2.9

2.6

2.9

4.3

8.3

7.9

7.8

7.6

7.1

2219 1455 764

1877 1155 721

1366 763 603

1057 516 541

481 362 119

516 404 112

488 326 162

577 326 251

784 475 309

1099 711 388

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Gainesville

Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL

October 2011

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

9.8 4.1 5.4 4.4

9.9 3.9 5.5 4.4

9.9 2.9 5.5 4.5

10 2.4 5.5 4.5

10.1 2.7 5.6 4.5

10.1 2.9 5.6 4.5

10.2 2.7 5.7 4.5

10.3 2.9 5.8 4.5

10.4 3 5.8 4.6

10.5 3.2 5.9 4.6

10.6 4.1 6 4.7

10.8 4.4 6 4.7

10.9 4.9 6.1 4.8

11 5.4 6.2 4.9

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

8.6 1.5

8.6 1.6

8.7 1.2

8.7 1.3

8.7 1.5

8.8 1.4

8.8 1.1

8.8 1

8.8 1.2

8.9 1.2

8.9 2

9 2.2

9.1 2.5

9.1 2.9

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

36.9 32.4

37.1 32.5

37.3 32.6

37.5 32.7

37.7 32.7

37.9 32.7

38.1 32.7

38.3 32.7

38.5 32.7

38.7 32.7

39.1 32.9

39.5 33

39.8 33.1

40.2 33.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

42.5 2.1

42.7 2.5

43 2.5

43.3 2.3

43.6 2.7

43.9 2.8

44.2 2.9

44.6 3

44.9 3

45.2 3

45.6 3

45.9 3

46.2 3

46.6 3.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

127.2 0.5

127.1 0.7

127 0.1

127.2 0.1

127.5 0.2

127.9 0.6

128.1 0.9

128.6 1

129.1 1.2

129.6 1.4

130.2 1.6

130.6 1.6

131.1 1.6

131.7 1.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.4 -0.4

4.4 -0.9

4.4 0.6

4.5 1

4.5 2.2

4.5 2.6

4.6 3.3

4.6 3

4.7 3

4.7 3.1

4.8 3.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

122.8 0.6

122.7 0.8

122.6 0.1

122.8 0.1

123 0.2

123.3 0.5

123.6 0.8

124 1

124.4 1.1

124.9 1.3

125.4 1.5

125.9 1.6

126.3 1.5

126.8 1.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

4.1 -2.9

4 -2

3.9 -2.6

3.9 -5.5

3.8 -6.9

3.8 -5.6

3.8 -3.1

3.9 -0.1

3.9 3.3

4.1 6.6

4.2 9.8

4.3 11.8

4.5 13.1

4.6 14

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

18.5 3.2

18.5 3.8

18.5 1.9

18.6 1.4

18.8 1.7

18.9 2.3

19 2.4

19 2.1

19.1 1.9

19.2 1.5

19.2 1.3

19.2 0.9

19.2 0.5

19.3 0.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

2.4 13.6 2.4

2.4 13.7 2.4

2.4 13.8 2.5

2.4 13.9 2.5

2.5 13.9 2.5

2.5 14 2.5

2.5 14 2.6

2.6 14 2.6

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 -7.2

1.4 -4.5

1.4 -5.3

1.4 0

1.4 0.2

1.4 0.3

1.4 0.7

1.4 2.4

1.5 3.7

1.5 2.7

1.5 1.4

1.5 0.7

1.5 1

1.5 2.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

5.9 -2.8

5.9 -3.7

5.9 -1.2

6 -0.1

6 1.7

6 2

6 1.8

6.1 1.5

6.1 1.1

6.1 1

6.1 0.6

6.1 0.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

10.5 0.2

10.5 0.3

10.5 -1

10.6 0.3

10.6 1.6

10.7 2

10.8 3.2

11 4.4

11.2 5.8

11.5 7.2

11.7 7.9

11.9 8.3

12.2 8.1

12.4 7.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

22.2 0.2

22.3 0.4

22.3 0.6

22.4 0.6

22.5 1.6

22.6 1.3

22.6 1.4

22.7 1.3

22.8 1

22.8 1.1

23 1.6

23 1.3

23.1 1.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

14.1 10.4

14.2 9.7

14.3 6.6

14.4 3.7

14.5 2.3

14.5 2.5

14.5 1.8

14.5 0.8

14.4 -0.2

14.4 -0.7

14.4 -0.8

14.4 -0.9

14.3 -0.7

4.4 0.5

4.4 -0.1

4.4 -0.2

4.4 1.2

4.4 0.6

4.4 0.4

4.4 0.5

4.4 0.4

4.5 0.4

4.5 0.5

4.5 0.7

4.5 0.6

4.5 0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

4.2 -8.9

4.2 -7.8

4.1 -4.7

4.1 -2.6

4.1 -2.3

4.1 -2.4

4.1 -2.3

4 -2.5

4 -2.7

4 -2.8

3.9 -2.7

3.9 -2.6

3.9 -2.4

3.9 -2.3

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

37.6 -1.3

37.3 -1

37.1 -1.9

37 -1.5

36.9 -1.9

36.8 -1.3

36.8 -0.8

36.9 -0.3

36.9 0.1

37 0.4

37 0.6

37.1 0.7

37.1 0.5

37.2 0.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

8855 8857.4 8876.4 8896.5 8926.7 8957.6 9021.7 9085.4 9154.6 9232.6

9312 9387.4 9475.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

8841.2 265.6 0.4

265.9 0.4

266.3 0.5

266.6 0.5

267.1 0.6

267.7 0.7

268.3 0.8

269.1 0.9

270 1.1

270.8 1.2

271.7 1.2

272.6 1.3

273.4 1.3

274.3 1.3

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

139.2 0.6

138.9 0.1

138.7 -0.8

138.7 -0.4

138.8 0

138.8 0.1

139.1 0.3

139.3 0.4

139.6 0.6

139.7 0.6

139.9 0.6

140.2 0.6

140.5 0.6

Unemployment Rate (%)

7.8

7.9

7.8

7.7

7.6

7.5

7.4

7.2

6.8

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

487 319 167

590 318 272

551 320 231

547 321 227

581 329 252

629 335 294

689 380 309

763 446 317

798 507 291

886 567 318

965 616 349

1052 681 372

1150 751 398

1229 795 434

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

J a c k so n v i l l e

Profiles The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport. Quick Facts:

• Metro population estimate of 1,345,596 as of July 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Baker County population estimate of 27,115 as of 2010 Census (U.S. Census Bureau) • Clay County population estimate of 190,865 as of 2010 Census (U.S. Census Bureau) • Duval County population estimate of 864,263 as of 2010 Census (U.S. Census Bureau) • Nassau County population estimate of 73,314 as of 2010 Census (U.S. Census Bureau) • St. Johns County population estimate of 190,039 as of 2010 Census (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 695,538 in June 2011 for the metro area. (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 10.3% as of June 2011, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 71,620 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• • • • • • • • • •

Naval Air Station Jacksonville – 25,245 employees Duval County Public Schools – 13, 582 employees Mayport Naval Station – 12,677 employees City of Jacksonville – 8,828 employees Baptist Health Systems – 8,276 employees Blue Cross & Blue Shield of Florida – 6,000 employees Mayo Clinic – 4,978 employees Citibank – 4,836 employees United Parcel Service – 4,100 employees St. Vincent’s Medical Center – 4,000 employees Source: Duval County Public Schools

O u t l oo k S umm a r i e s The Jacksonville MSA is expected to see strong growth in most of the economic indicators, relative to the MSAs studied. Personal income will see an average growth rate of 4.6 percent, the second highest of the twelve MSAs. The per capita income level will be one of the highest at 36.7. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.7 percent, while average annual wage is expected to be at a level of 49.7. Population growth will be high at an average annual rate of 1.4 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 56,934.28 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to be 1.9 percent annually. Unemployment will average 9.8 percent in the MSA. The fastest growing sector in the Jacksonville MSA will be Professional & Business Services, which will see an average annual growth rate of 4.6 percent. Following that sector is the Construction and Mining sector, with an annual growth rate of 2.8 percent, and then the Leisure sector with a 2.7 percent growth rate. Other Services and the Federal Government sectors will experience declines of -0.2 percent and -3.5 percent respectively.

M e t r o N e ws S umm a r i e s JTA running out of money for road construction • The Jacksonville Transportation Authority, which built several of Jacksonville’s bridges and runs the bus and Skyway systems, has seemingly run out of construction projects. • The Jacksonville City Council is considering whether or not to continue to do business with JTA, or to build its proposed projects without JTA. • JTA projects are currently supported with a gas tax and a sales tax. Source: The Florida Times-Union, July 30, 2011

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

J a c k so n v i l l e

Workforce Florida announces $2.2M in transportation training funding • Workforce Florida announced $2.2 million in new transportation education funding. $987 thousand of that money will go to Jacksonville’s University of North Florida to train new and current transportation workers. • The program is part of a state-wide initiative to diversify Florida’s economy. • Jaxport is also expected to benefit from the training of its workers. Source: The Florida Times-Union, August 18, 2011 Little jetty revamp near Mayport could cost $37 million, some residents skeptical of worthiness • The Army Corps of Engineers has begun to work out a plan to restructure the “little jetty” in the Intercoastal Waterway. • The Army Corps says that the silting caused by the way it was built has caused economic inefficiencies because large ships have to wait for higher tides to maneuver through the area, and it is costing them time. Source: The Florida Times-Union, August 20, 2011 City paying millions to keep Jacksonville garages afloat • The City of Jacksonville has spent $16 million over the last five years to keep Metropolitan Parking Solutions in business so that they can run three downtown garages for the city. • The main reason the garages seem to be unprofitable is that one of them is located across from the new county courthouse, which will not open until next year. • The city is considering buying out Metropolitan and running the garages itself in order to save on costs. Source: The Florida Times-Union, September 25, 2011 38

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

JTA OKs plan for new Greyhound station but efforts to create a major transportation hub dropped for now • The Jacksonville Transportation Authority has approved construction on a new Greyhound Bus station that should cost between $3.5 and $5 million. • However, they dropped nine other proposals that would turn the project into a major transportation hub. • JTA will build the station on land donated by the city. Source: The Florida Times-Union, September 30, 2011

J a c k so n v i l l e Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

0.8

65000.0

55000.0

6.0%

50000.0

4.0%

1.6

1.8

(Millions 2000 $)

45000.0 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate

40000.0

Jacksonville Payroll Employment (Thousands)

620.0 600.0 580.0 560.0 540.0 520.0

1.4

Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product

8.0%

640.0

1.2

60000.0

10.0%

2.0%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Jacksonville Payroll Employment

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Gross Metro Product

Jacksonville Real Personal Income 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

J a c k so n v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

October 2011

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

45.6 9 25.6 20

50.3 10.2 27.9 22.3

52.4 4.3 29.1 23.3

53.4 1.8 28.9 24.5

52.3 -2 27.5 24.8

53.7 2.6 27.9 25.8

55.9 4.2 28.7 27.2

58 3.7 29.8 28.1

60.4 4.3 31.4 29

64.1 6 33.3 30.8

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

45.6 5.9

48.9 7.3

49.7 1.5

49 -1.4

47.9 -2.2

48.3 0.8

49.2 1.9

50.3 2.3

51.5 2.4

53.4 3.7

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

36.3 36.3

39.1 38.1

40.1 38

40.3 37

39.1 35.8

39.7 35.8

41 36.1

42 36.4

43.1 36.7

44.9 37.4

Average Annual Wage (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago

40.8 3.1

43 5.5

44.3 3

45 1.5

45.4 0.9

46.5 2.5

47.7 2.4

48.9 2.6

50.3 2.9

51.7 2.9

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

604 4.4

625 3.5

633.8 1.4

621.2 -2

586.3 -5.6

581 -0.9

584.8 0.7

592.5 1.3

606.2 2.3

624.9 3.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

33.6 0.9

33.3 -0.8

32.6 -2.2

31.9 -2

28.7 -10

26.9 -6.4

27.1 0.7

27.5 1.6

28.1 2.4

28.9 2.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

570.4 4.6

591.7 3.7

601.3 1.6

589.3 -2

557.6 -5.4

554.1 -0.6

557.7 0.6

565 1.3

578.1 2.3

595.9 3.1

45.4 11

50.1 10.3

49.2 -1.7

43 -12.7

32.8 -23.7

28.5 -13.2

28 -1.8

27.2 -2.8

27.8 2.5

31.5 13.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

132.8 3.7

136.9 3.1

139.2 1.7

136.3 -2.1

126.9 -6.9

124.1 -2.2

124.8 0.5

127.4 2.1

130.9 2.8

133.3 1.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

27.8 73.9 31.1

29.9 74.9 32.2

30.2 76.5 32.5

28.6 75.4 32.2

26.7 69.5 30.7

25.5 69 29.6

25.6 69.4 29.8

26 70.1 30.8

26.8 71.8 31.9

27.6 72.4 33.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

11.9 2.4

11.1 -6.8

10.2 -8.5

10.2 0.7

10.3 1.2

10.2 -1.3

9.8 -3.9

9.9 0.6

10.1 2.7

10.3 1.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

59.3 1.5

59.9 1

60.1 0.5

59.7 -0.7

55.7 -6.7

55.1 -1.1

53.9 -2.2

54 0.1

55 1.8

55.5 0.9

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

88.1 6.8

95.4 8.3

94.3 -1.2

88 -6.7

83.1 -5.5

85.6 3.1

86.9 1.5

88.5 1.9

93.5 5.6

102.2 9.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

71.3 4.9

74.5 4.5

77.9 4.5

81.7 4.9

83.7 2.5

85.3 1.9

87.1 2.1

89 2.2

90.7 1.9

92.7 2.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

60.4 7.4

62.2 2.9

65.9 6

67.3 2

64.7 -3.9

64.5 -0.3

67.6 4.9

70.5 4.3

71.5 1.4

71.7 0.2

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

26.8 1.6

27.6 3.2

28.3 2.3

26.6 -5.9

24 -9.6

23.8 -0.8

23.4 -2

23.5 0.5

23.6 0.5

23.7 0.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

17.4 -2.2

16.9 -2.6

17 0.6

17.1 0.6

17.5 2.3

18 2.8

17.1 -5.1

16.5 -3.8

16 -2.6

15.6 -2.4

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

57.1 3

57.1 0

59.2 3.6

59.5 0.6

58.8 -1.1

58.9 0.1

59.1 0.4

58.6 -0.9

58.8 0.5

59.5 1.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

52215.2

54729.6

55467.9

54232

53111.2

53978.7

54604

55666.9

57405.1

60061.1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1255.4 2.3

1285.5 2.4

1307.9 1.7

1324.4 1.3

1338.2 1

1350.3 0.9

1364.3 1

1381.7 1.3

1402.8 1.5

1427.6 1.8

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

630.3 3.7

650.2 3.2

669.8 3

686.8 2.5

683.4 -0.5

688 0.7

687.7 0

688.7 0.1

694.1 0.8

703.6 1.4

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.7

3.2

3.7

5.7

9.7

11.2

10.2

10.1

9.8

23815 18638 5177

16724 12263 4461

10495 7488 3008

7066 5164 1902

4480 3464 1016

3716 3547 169

3788 3435 353

4670 3542 1128

6730 4613 2117

9755 6859 2896

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

J a c k so n v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

October 2011

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

56.1 4.2 28.9 27.3

56.6 4.2 29.1 27.5

57.1 3.8 29.4 27.8

57.6 3.2 29.6 28

58.2 3.7 30 28.2

58.8 3.9 30.4 28.5

59.4 3.9 30.7 28.6

60.1 4.2 31.2 28.9

60.8 4.4 31.6 29.2

61.5 4.6 32.1 29.4

62.6 5.4 32.5 30

63.5 5.7 33 30.5

64.6 6.3 33.5 31.1

65.6 6.7 34 31.7

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

49.2 1.5

49.6 1.9

49.9 2.1

50.2 2.2

50.5 2.5

50.8 2.4

51 2.2

51.4 2.3

51.7 2.5

52.1 2.6

52.7 3.3

53.1 3.4

53.7 3.9

54.3 4.2

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

41.1 36

41.3 36.2

41.6 36.3

41.8 36.4

42.1 36.5

42.4 36.5

42.6 36.6

42.9 36.7

43.2 36.8

43.6 36.9

44.1 37.1

44.6 37.3

45.1 37.5

45.6 37.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

47.7 1.9

48 2.4

48.4 2.4

48.7 2.3

49 2.7

49.4 2.8

49.8 2.9

50.1 3

50.5 2.9

50.8 2.9

51.2 2.9

51.6 2.8

51.9 2.9

52.3 2.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

586 0.8

587.2 0.9

588.5 1.4

590.8 0.9

593.8 1.3

596.7 1.6

599.7 1.9

603.7 2.2

608.2 2.4

613.2 2.8

617.8 3

622.6 3.1

627.1 3.1

631.9 3.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

27.1 1.2

27.2 0.6

27.2 1.5

27.4 1

27.6 1.7

27.7 2.1

27.9 2.5

28.1 2.3

28.2 2.4

28.4 2.5

28.6 2.6

28.8 2.7

29.1 2.9

29.3 3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

558.9 0.8

560 0.9

561.3 1.4

563.3 0.9

566.3 1.3

569 1.6

571.8 1.9

575.6 2.2

580 2.4

584.8 2.8

589.2 3

593.8 3.2

598 3.1

602.7 3.1

28.7 1.2

28.2 1.9

27.6 3.3

27.2 -3.2

26.9 -6.3

26.9 -4.8

27 -2.4

27.4 0.8

28.1 4.2

28.9 7.5

29.9 10.7

30.9 12.8

32 14

33.2 14.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

124.5 0.4

125.1 1.3

125.8 1.2

126.8 1.3

127.9 2.7

129 3.2

129.7 3.1

130.4 2.9

131.4 2.7

132.1 2.4

132.4 2.1

132.9 1.9

133.5 1.6

134.2 1.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

25.5 69.1 29.9

25.6 69.3 30.1

25.8 69.4 30.4

26 69.9 30.6

26.1 70.4 30.9

26.3 70.9 31.2

26.5 71.3 31.4

26.7 71.6 31.7

26.9 72 32.1

27.1 72.2 32.5

27.3 72.2 32.7

27.5 72.3 33

27.7 72.5 33.3

27.9 72.7 33.6

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

9.7 -4.1

9.8 -3.5

10 -0.2

9.9 1.1

9.8 0.8

9.9 0.8

10 0.6

10.2 2.7

10.2 4.3

10.2 3.2

10.2 1.5

10.2 0.5

10.3 0.6

10.4 1.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

53.2 -3.4

53.3 -3.9

53.5 -2.7

53.8 -0.7

54.2 1.8

54.5 2.2

54.7 2.3

54.9 2

55 1.6

55.2 1.4

55.4 1.1

55.5 1.1

55.5 0.9

55.6 0.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

87.1 0.6

87.6 1.1

87.7 1.8

88 1.4

88.9 2.1

89.5 2.2

90.5 3.2

92.2 4.8

94.5 6.3

96.9 8.2

98.9 9.3

101.1 9.7

103.3 9.3

105.4 8.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

87.5 2.5

87.9 2.3

88.2 2.5

88.8 2.2

89.3 2.1

89.7 2

90 2

90.6 2

90.9 1.7

91.3 1.8

92.1 2.3

92.6 2.3

92.8 2.1

93.2 2.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

68.8 6.6

69.1 5.8

69.7 6.8

70.3 4.3

70.9 3

71.3 3.2

71.5 2.6

71.6 1.8

71.5 0.9

71.6 0.4

71.7 0.2

71.7 0.3

71.8 0.2

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

23.3 -2.1

23.4 -1.4

23.5 0.1

23.4 0.6

23.5 0.7

23.5 0.6

23.6 0.5

23.6 0.4

23.7 0.4

23.7 0.6

23.7 0.5

23.7 0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

16.8 -6

16.7 -4.9

16.6 -5.5

16.5 -4.5

16.4 -2.4

16.3 -2.6

16.2 -2.6

16.1 -2.5

16 -2.6

15.9 -2.5

15.8 -2.6

15.7 -2.5

15.6 -2.4

15.5 -2.2

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

59.3 0.6

58.9 -0.2

58.7 -0.6

58.6 -1

58.5 -1.3

58.5 -0.7

58.6 -0.2

58.7 0.3

58.9 0.7

59.1 1

59.3 1.1

59.4 1.2

59.6 1.2

59.8 1.2

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

54742

55001

55243

55497

55796

56131

56502

57081

57698

58339

58988

59704

60396

61157

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1366.2 1370.3 1374.6 1379.1 1383.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

688.1 0.1

688 -0.5

687.7 0.1

688.2 0

689.1 0.1

1389 1394.3 1399.8 1405.6 1411.6 1417.6 1423.9 1430.9 1438.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 689.9 0.3

691.3 0.5

692.9 0.7

694.7 0.8

697.6 1.1

699.9 1.2

702.4 1.4

704.9 1.5

707.3 1.4

10.1

10.2

10.1

9.9

9.8

9.6

9.4

9.1

8.9

8.6

3945 3800 144

4245 3737 508

4300 3630 671

4460 3539 922

4804 3495 1309

5116 3505 1611

5552 3807 1745

6424 4341 2083

7091 4868 2222

7855 5436 2419

8497 5904 2593

9322 6538 2784

10242 7261 2981

10959 7735 3224

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Lakeland Profiles The Lakeland MSA is comprised only of Polk County. It is located in the western-center of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus. It is home to a few attractions such as Fantasy of Flight and the upcoming Legoland Florida in Winter Haven. Also, the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians conduct spring training in Lakeland and Winter Haven, respectively. Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 602,095 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 274,493 in May 2011 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 10.8% as of May 2011, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 29,674 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 8,063 employees • Lakeland Regional Medical Center – 4,540 employees • City of Lakeland – 2,600 employees • GEICO – 2,005 employees • Watson Clinic – 1,600 employees • GC Services – 1,000 employees • Rooms To Go, Inc. – 900 employees • Summit Consulting Inc. – 654 employees • Saddle Creek Corporation – 625 employees • Ascent Healthcare Solutions – 600 employees Source: Lakeland Economic Development Council

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

O u t l oo k S umm a r i e s The Lakeland MSA will show modest levels of growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 4.2 percent annually, while the per capita income level will be at 29.4. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.5 percent, and the average annual wage level is expected to be at 42.1, one of the lowest of the studied areas. Population growth is expected to average at 1.3 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 16,825.55 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to be 1.2 percent annually. The unemployment rate for the metro will average 11.4 percent, the second highest of the twelve MSAs. The Professional and Business sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 3.2 percent average annual growth. This is followed by the Trade, Transportation, and Utilities sector averaging a growth rate of 2.1 percent a year. Other Services, State and Local Government, Leisure, and Federal Government sectors will experience a decline, with an annual growth rate of -0.4 percent, -0.6 percent, -0.7 percent, and -8.5 percent respectively.

Lakeland Lakeland MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate

0.6

0.8

220.0 210.0 200.0 190.0 180.0 170.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Lakeland Payroll Employment

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product 19000.0 18000.0 17000.0 16000.0 15000.0 14000.0 13000.0 12000.0 11000.0

Lakeland Payroll Employment (Thousands)

(Millions 2000 $)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Gross Metro Product

Lakeland Real Personal Income 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Lakeland

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

October 2011

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

16.3 10.6 7.4 8.9

17.7 8.2 7.9 9.7

18.7 5.6 8.1 10.6

19.3 3.4 8.1 11.2

18.9 -2.2 7.8 11.1

19.3 2.1 7.7 11.5

20 3.9 7.9 12.2

20.7 3.4 8.1 12.6

21.5 3.7 8.5 13

22.7 5.6 8.9 13.7

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

16.3 7.5

17.2 5.3

17.7 2.8

17.7 0.1

17.3 -2.4

17.3 0.3

17.6 1.6

18 2.1

18.3 1.8

18.9 3.3

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

29.7 29.7

31 30.2

31.8 30.1

32.4 29.7

31.4 28.8

31.9 28.7

33 29

33.7 29.3

34.4 29.3

35.7 29.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago

35.6 4

37.3 4.7

38 1.9

38.6 1.7

39.1 1.1

39.6 1.5

40.6 2.3

41.5 2.3

42.6 2.7

43.8 2.7

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

207.1 6.5

211.7 2.2

211.8 0.1

208.4 -1.6

197.5 -5.2

193.9 -1.8

192.7 -0.6

193.7 0.5

197.5 2

203 2.8

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

18.3 0.4

17.9 -2.2

17.2 -3.6

16.4 -5.2

14.8 -9.3

14.2 -4.5

14 -1.3

14.2 1.5

14.5 2.4

14.9 2.7

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

188.8 7.1

193.8 2.6

194.5 0.4

192 -1.3

182.6 -4.9

179.8 -1.6

178.8 -0.6

179.5 0.4

183 2

188.1 2.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

16.2 12.6

16.9 4.1

15.8 -6.5

13.9 -12.2

11.7 -15.8

10.6 -8.7

10.2 -4.2

9.7 -5.3

9.9 2

11.1 12.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

47.6 8.4

48.9 2.8

49 0.1

47.8 -2.5

44.9 -6

44.2 -1.6

44.9 1.7

46.1 2.5

47.2 2.5

48 1.7

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

10.3 25.3 12.1

10.4 26.1 12.5

10.1 26.4 12.5

9.6 26.1 12.1

9.1 24.2 11.6

8.7 24 11.5

8.5 24.7 11.6

8.6 25.3 11.9

8.8 25.7 12.3

9.1 25.9 12.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.3 3

2.4 3

2.2 -7.8

2.1 -3.4

1.9 -9.2

1.8 -5.3

1.7 -5.2

1.7 1

1.8 2.7

1.8 1.5

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

11.1 1.8

11.6 4.2

11.8 2.4

12.2 2.8

11.8 -3.4

11.5 -2.5

11.3 -1.3

11.5 1.2

11.6 1.4

11.7 0.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

33.2 8.2

32.9 -0.8

32 -2.6

31.3 -2.4

29 -7.2

28.7 -1.2

28.4 -0.9

28.6 0.7

30 5

32.4 7.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

25.6 6.1

26.6 4.2

28 5.1

29.1 4

28.7 -1.4

28.6 -0.4

29.1 1.9

29.5 1.1

29.9 1.5

30.4 1.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

16.5 7.8

17 2.7

17.4 2.9

17.4 -0.5

16.5 -4.7

16.2 -1.9

15.8 -2.4

15.9 0

15.9 0.2

15.8 -0.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

9 11.9

9.5 5.5

9 -5.3

8.6 -4.1

8.3 -4

8.3 -0.1

8.1 -1.4

8.1 -0.7

8.1 0.3

8.1 0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 4.5

1.4 -0.6

1.4 1.3

1.4 0.1

1.4 -1.3

1.6 14.7

1.2 -25.9

1.1 -3.4

1.1 -2.4

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

26 2

26.7 2.7

27.9 4.3

28.3 1.7

28.5 0.5

28.3 -0.5

27.9 -1.6

27.4 -1.7

27.5 0.2

27.8 0.9

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

15895.4

16589.2

16745.2

16429.6

16033

16214.8

16212

16451.9

16933.5

17704.8

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

550.1 3.7

570.4 3.7

586.9 2.9

595.6 1.5

600.1 0.8

603.4 0.6

607.4 0.7

614 1.1

624 1.6

634.7 1.7

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

256.1 3.5

261.1 2

266.2 1.9

272.9 2.5

274 0.4

275.5 0.6

272.7 -1

270 -1

270.8 0.3

273.1 0.8

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.6

4.3

6.6

12.6

11.9

11.8

11.4

10.4

12867 11707 1161

9528 8288 1240

4389 4007 381

3155 2359 796

1219 1217 2

1217 1162 55

1168 1114 54

1648 1548 100

2859 2557 302

4360 3847 513

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

Lakeland

Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL

October 2011

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

20.1 4 7.9 12.2

20.2 4.1 7.9 12.3

20.4 3.3 8 12.5

20.6 3.2 8 12.6

20.8 3.6 8.1 12.7

21 3.7 8.2 12.8

21.1 3.5 8.3 12.9

21.4 3.6 8.4 12.9

21.6 3.7 8.5 13.1

21.8 3.9 8.6 13.2

22.2 4.9 8.8 13.4

22.5 5.3 8.9 13.6

22.8 5.9 9 13.9

23.2 6.3 9.1 14.1

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

17.6 1.3

17.7 1.7

17.8 1.6

17.9 2.1

18 2.4

18.1 2.2

18.2 1.9

18.3 1.7

18.4 1.8

18.5 1.9

18.7 2.8

18.8 3

19 3.5

19.2 3.9

33 29

33.2 29.1

33.4 29.2

33.6 29.3

33.8 29.3

34 29.3

34.1 29.3

34.3 29.3

34.5 29.4

34.7 29.4

35.2 29.6

35.5 29.7

35.9 29.9

36.3 30

40.6 2.2

40.9 2.3

41.1 2.3

41.3 2

41.6 2.4

41.9 2.5

42.2 2.6

42.5 2.7

42.7 2.7

43 2.7

43.3 2.7

43.6 2.7

43.9 2.7

44.2 2.8

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

192.4 -1.1

192.6 -0.3

192.6 -0.4

193.2 0.3

194 0.9

194.8 1.2

195.6 1.6

196.8 1.8

198.1 2.1

199.6 2.5

201 2.8

202.3 2.8

203.7 2.8

205.1 2.8

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

14 -1.1

14 0.1

14 1.1

14.2 1

14.2 1.7

14.3 2.1

14.4 2.6

14.5 2.3

14.6 2.4

14.8 2.5

14.9 2.5

15 2.8

15.1 2.9

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

178.4 -1.1

178.6 -0.3

178.6 -0.5

179.1 0.2

179.8 0.8

180.5 1.1

181.2 1.5

182.3 1.8

183.6 2.1

184.9 2.5

186.3 2.8

187.5 2.8

188.7 2.8

190 2.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

10.3 -3.5

10.1 -2.6

9.8 -3.9

9.7 -5.3

9.6 -6.6

9.5 -5.3

9.6 -2.8

9.7 0.3

9.9 3.7

10.2 7.1

10.6 10.4

10.9 12.4

11.3 13.7

11.7 14.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

45.2 1.9

45.3 3.2

45.5 2.7

45.9 2.3

46.2 2.3

46.6 2.8

46.8 2.8

47.1 2.6

47.4 2.4

47.6 2.1

47.8 2.1

47.9 1.8

48 1.5

48.3 1.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

8.5 24.9 11.6

8.5 25.1 11.6

8.5 25.1 11.7

8.6 25.2 11.8

8.6 25.3 11.9

8.7 25.5 12

8.7 25.6 12.1

8.8 25.7 12.2

8.8 25.8 12.4

8.9 25.9 12.5

9 25.9 12.7

9 25.8 12.8

9.1 25.9 12.9

9.2 26 13

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.7 -5.1

1.7 -4.7

1.7 1.6

1.7 1

1.7 0.5

1.7 0.7

1.7 0.8

1.8 2.7

1.8 4.2

1.8 3.2

1.8 1.8

1.8 1

1.8 1.1

1.8 2.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

11.3 -1.2

11.3 -0.7

11.4 0.2

11.4 1.2

11.5 1.6

11.5 1.9

11.6 1.8

11.6 1.5

11.6 1.2

11.7 1

11.7 0.7

11.7 0.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

28.4 -2.1

28.4 -0.7

28.5 0.5

28.7 1.1

28.9 1.7

29.2 3

29.7 4.3

30.3 5.6

30.9 7.1

31.5 7.8

32.1 8.2

32.7 7.9

33.2 7.4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

29.1 1.5

29.2 2

29.2 0.6

29.4 0.6

29.6 1.8

29.6 1.5

29.7 1.6

29.9 1.6

30 1.3

30.1 1.4

30.3 1.9

30.4 1.6

30.4 1.5

30.5 1.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

15.5 -3.6

15.6 -4.6

15.7 -4.1

15.8 -0.2

15.9 2.8

15.9 1.9

15.9 1.3

15.9 0.5

15.9 -0.4

15.8 -0.5

15.8 -0.6

15.8 -0.7

15.8 -0.6

15.7 -0.6

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8 -2.7

8.1 -2.3

8.1 -2.8

8.1 -0.9

8.1 0.5

8.1 0.4

8.1 0.2

8.1 0.1

8.1 0.3

8.1 0.2

8.1 -0.2

1.2 -25.3

1.1 -9.7

1.1 -9.9

1.1 1.2

1.1 -2

1.1 -2.1

1.1 -2.4

1.1 -2.6

1.1 -2.7

1.1 -2.6

1.1 -2.4

1.1 -2.3

1.1 -2.2

27.8 -2.7

27.7 -1.8

27.5 -2.3

27.4 -1.8

27.4 -1.6

27.4 -1

27.4 -0.5

27.5 0.1

27.5 0.6

27.6 0.8

27.7 1

27.8 1

27.8 0.9

27.9 0.9

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

16217

16291

16333

16409

16487

16579

16676

16842

17015

17201

17400

17601

17799

18019

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

607.9 0.7

609.3 0.7

611 0.8

612.9 1

614.9 1.2

617.4 1.3

620 1.5

622.7 1.6

625.3 1.7

627.9 1.7

630.6 1.7

633.4 1.7

636.1 1.7

638.7 1.7

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

270.7 -1.3

270.4 -2.1

270.1 -2.2

270 -1.4

270 -0.3

269.8 -0.2

269.8 -0.1

270.4 0.1

271 0.4

272 0.8

272.3 0.9

272.7 0.8

273.3 0.9

274 0.7

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%)

11.8

11.9

11.8

11.7

11.5

11.3

11.1

10.8

10.5

10.2

9.9

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1093 1122 -29

1336 1298 38

1442 1395 48

1568 1497 71

1715 1600 116

1867 1701 167

2211 1995 216

2694 2417 277

3078 2745 333

3452 3072 379

3775 3337 437

4162 3683 479

4604 4067 537

4899 4300 598

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

M i a mi – Fo r t L a ud e r d a l e – P omp a n o B e a ch

Profiles The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, this area is home to many sports teams, such as the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins, and the Florida Panthers. Other major businesses also reside in this metro, including the Miami Seaquarium, the University of Miami, and Florida International University. QUICK FACTS: • Metro area population estimate of 5,564,635 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,496,435 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Broward County population estimate of 1,748,066 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,320,134 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 2,929,399 in May 2011 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 11.4% as of May 2011, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 332,875 unemployed people for the metro area. (Florida Research and Economic Database) TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • • • • • • • • • • •

Miami-Dade County Schools – 44,132 employees Broward County Public Schools – 39,714 employees Federal Government – 36,600 employees Florida State Government – 33,500 employees Miami-Dade County – 32,000 employees University of Miami – 12,765 employees Publix Super Markets – 11,760 employees Baptist Health South Florida – 11,615 employees Jackson Health System – 10,500 employees American Airlines – 9,000 employees Miami-Dade College – 6,500 employees Sources: The Beacon Council, Agency for Workforce Innovation, and Enterprise Florida Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

O u t l oo k S umm a r i e s The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach area is expected to show strong growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 4.0 percent annually, and the per capita income level, at 39.6, is the second highest in the areas studied. Average annual wage growth will be at 2.6 percent. The average annual wage level is expected to be 52.2, the highest of the studied MSAs. Miami is expected to average a population growth of 1.3 percent each year. The area has the highest Gross Metro Product at a level of 250,742.68 (Mill). Employment is expected to grow at an average rate of 1.6 percent each year, while unemployment is expected to be 10.7 percent. Miami’s fastest growing sector is expected to be the Professional and Business Services sector at 4.2 percent annually, followed by the Constructing Mining sector at 2.3 percent each year and Education and Health Services at 1.9 percent. Other Services and the Federal Government sectors are expected to decline with annual growth rates of -0.2 percent and -4.4 percent.

M e t r o N e ws S umm a r i e s Bank of America doubles foreclosure filings in South Florida • Bank of America initiated 280 foreclosures in Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties in August. • Bank of America was one of the banks that agreed to begin home loan servicing practices because of the Federal Reserve Board’s enforcement action. • The bank used to file over 250 foreclosure lawsuits in South Florida until October 2010 when the validity of the filings was questioned. Source: South Florida Business Journal, September 1, 2011

M i a mi – Fo r t L a ud e r d a l e – P omp a n o B e a ch

If trash piles up, prices could go down for four Broward cities • Cities in Broward County, including Miramar, are looking to decrease the prices of trash disposal. Miramar is spearheading the move towards cheaper trash disposal by creating competition. • Wheelabrator, the Waste Management subsidiary and Bergeron Environmental and Recycling, the Lantana-based Sun Recycling are the two competitors in the race to win over four major Broward county cities. • The proposal by Bergeron Environmental and Recycling shows that if the four cities switch to their company and generate 500,000 tons of trash in a year, the cities could save approximately $7 million. • The proposal by Wheelabrator, the incumbent, shows that if the cities generate around 300,000 tons per year, they would save about $2.5 million with their company. Source: Miami Herald, August 29, 2011 Miami-Dade County plans fee changes in new budget • Miami-Dade County commissioners are considering the fee changes that were proposed by the administration. The proposed fee changes are trying to tackle small areas where money can be earned and saved. • Among the proposed fee changes are increasing the fine for having a dangerous dog at a park to $500 and eliminating the discount for county residents visiting the Vizcaya Museum. • Miami-Dade would also like to increase fees for fire-rescue services. The charge for basic lifesupport services like CPR while transporting a person to a hospital will increase from $500 to $800. The estimated increase in revenue from this will be around $2.7 million.

Miramar to update its technology • The city of Miramar is planning to create a free computer lab and a website that encompasses all bills to pay, traffic tickets, and city information. • The city approved a $100,000 service contract with Comcast to provide the public computer lab. The city also approved $3.1 million to Tyler Technologies. • Tyler Technologies will implement the new website and software. The website will integrate several different programs into one in order to allow residents to pay all types of bills, registration fees, and parking tickets. • The new software is expected to save the city approximately $500,000 a year on maintaining the software. Source: Miami Herald, September 8, 2011 Resorts World Miami plans unveiled • The new plan for the Resorts World Miami was unveiled on September 14th, showing a 10 million-square-foot design for the convention center. • The $3 billion project is expected to bring in 15,000 jobs during construction and 30,000 jobs when it is completed. • Resorts World Miami has a multi-tower design and an LED lit exterior. It will have a 700,000 square-foot convention center and a 200,000 square-foot ballroom. The resort plans to build 5,200 hotel rooms and over 50 restaurants, clubs, and entertainment areas. Source: South Florida Business Journal, September 14, 2011

Source: Miami Herald, September 21, 2011 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

M i a mi â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Fo r t L a ud e r d a l e â&#x20AC;&#x201C; P omp a n o B e a ch Miami - Fort Lauderdale - Pompano Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

1.4

1.6

280000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

220000.0 200000.0 180000.0 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

2300.0 2200.0 2100.0

1.2

240000.0

2400.0

2000.0

Miami Real Gross Metro Product

160000.0

Miami Payroll Employment 2500.0

0.8

260000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Miami Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Gross Metro Product

Miami Real Personal Income 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Personal Income

M i a mi – Fo r t L a ud e r d a l e – P omp a n o B e a ch

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

October 2011

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

210.6 8.1 103.3 107.3

228.8 8.7 110.2 118.7

238.3 4.1 114.3 124

244.9 2.8 113.3 131.6

237.2 -3.1 107 130.2

241.9 2 107.8 134.1

251.6 4 111.3 140.3

259.1 3 115.1 143.9

268 3.4 120.5 147.5

282.6 5.4 127 155.5

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

210.6 5

222.8 5.8

225.9 1.4

224.8 -0.5

217.3 -3.3

217.7 0.2

221.3 1.7

224.9 1.6

228.5 1.6

235.6 3.1

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

38.8 38.8

42 40.9

43.7 41.4

44.6 41

42.9 39.3

43.3 39

44.5 39.2

45.3 39.4

46.3 39.5

48.2 40.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago

43.9 4.4

45.7 4.1

47 2.8

47.9 1.9

48.3 0.7

49 1.6

50.2 2.3

51.4 2.4

52.8 2.8

54.3 2.8

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

2337.1 3.8

2394.6 2.5

2416.8 0.9

2352.8 -2.7

2204.3 -6.3

2183.6 -0.9

2203.5 0.9

2226.8 1.1

2267.6 1.8

2325.6 2.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

101.2 0.4

100.6 -0.5

98.6 -2

92.5 -6.2

79.6 -14

74.4 -6.6

72.7 -2.2

73.4 0.9

74.9 2.1

76.7 2.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2236 3.9

2294 2.6

2318.2 1.1

2260.3 -2.5

2124.7 -6

2109.3 -0.7

2130.7 1

2153.4 1.1

2192.8 1.8

2248.9 2.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

147.4 12.1

164.3 11.5

161.1 -2

134.9 -16.2

102.4 -24.1

88 -14.1

84.4 -4.1

80.7 -4.4

83.5 3.5

95.5 14.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

529.5 2.6

542.9 2.5

549.1 1.1

540.1 -1.6

504.4 -6.6

501.8 -0.5

505.9 0.8

517.8 2.3

529.8 2.3

536.7 1.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

141.2 294.2 94.1

144.7 303.6 94.6

147.6 306.2 95.3

144.4 300.9 94.8

134.6 281.1 88.6

132.1 282.1 87.6

131.5 284 89.4

134.2 287.7 91.9

137.9 292.8 95.1

141.5 293.9 98.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

55.2 -1.1

52.5 -4.9

51.2 -2.4

49.7 -2.9

44.9 -9.6

43.2 -4

41.8 -3.3

41.9 0.4

42.9 2.3

43.1 0.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

178.2 4.9

183.5 3

181.4 -1.2

170.8 -5.8

155.1 -9.2

151.4 -2.4

151.1 -0.2

151.2 0.1

152.3 0.7

152.7 0.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

358.7 7.7

370.3 3.2

372.5 0.6

355.6 -4.5

327.8 -7.8

329.9 0.6

336.6 2

342.4 1.7

358.9 4.8

388.8 8.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

301.5 2.8

308.1 2.2

318.9 3.5

326.3 2.3

330.5 1.3

336.2 1.7

344.6 2.5

351.5 2

356.3 1.4

362.4 1.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

247.6 3.1

251.7 1.7

258 2.5

257 -0.4

247.5 -3.7

249.7 0.9

258.7 3.6

265.5 2.6

267.9 0.9

267.2 -0.3

99 1.3

99.3 0.3

100.8 1.5

100.9 0.1

93.4 -7.4

93.8 0.4

93.7 -0.1

93.3 -0.5

93.2 -0.1

93.2 0

34.5 1.1

34.1 -1.3

34 -0.2

33.9 -0.4

34.1 0.7

36.6 7.4

33.3 -9.1

32.3 -3.1

31.4 -2.7

30.6 -2.6

284.3 1.6

287.2 1

291.2 1.4

291.2 0

284.5 -2.3

278.7 -2

280.7 0.7

276.9 -1.3

276.6 -0.1

278.7 0.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

238964.8 247133.2 250923.9 244188.7 234879.7 238459.8 241348.1 245680.7 252556.8 263385.1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

5431.2 1.3

5450.8 0.4

5455.5 0.1

5488.2 0.6

5532.2 0.8

5585.9 1

5647.8 1.1

5715.1 1.2

5788.1 1.3

5867.1 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2673.4 2.4

2746.8 2.7

2809.4 2.3

2851 1.5

2830.5 -0.7

2876.4 1.6

2916.8 1.4

2918.4 0.1

2927.8 0.3

2940.5 0.4

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.2

3.6

9.9

11.5

11.4

11.2

10.7

9.6

41642 22542 19100

32730 15769 16961

14816 7602 7215

7700 3526 4174

3627 2245 1381

5101 3259 1843

7131 3879 3252

10220 5013 5206

17031 8739 8292

25445 14310 11135

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

M i a mi – Fo r t L a ud e r d a l e – P omp a n o B e a ch

Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

October 2011

2011Q3

2011Q4

2012Q1

2012Q2

2012Q3

2012Q4

2013Q1

2013Q2

2013Q3

2013Q4

2014Q1

2014Q2

2014Q3

2014Q4

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

252.5 4.1 111.7 140.8

254.2 4.1 112.5 141.6

256.1 3.1 113.4 142.7

257.9 2.6 114.5 143.5

260.1 3 115.7 144.3

262.2 3.2 116.9 145.3

264 3.1 118.2 145.8

266.7 3.4 119.7 147

269.2 3.5 121.2 148

271.9 3.7 122.8 149.2

276.3 4.7 124.5 151.9

280.2 5.1 126.2 154

284.6 5.7 127.8 156.8

289 6.3 129.7 159.4

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

221.4 1.5

222.5 1.7

223.5 1.5

224.6 1.6

225.3 1.8

226.2 1.7

226.7 1.4

228 1.5

229 1.6

230.2 1.7

232.5 2.5

234.3 2.8

236.7 3.3

239 3.8

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

44.6 39.1

44.8 39.2

45 39.3

45.2 39.4

45.4 39.4

45.7 39.4

45.8 39.4

46.1 39.5

46.4 39.5

46.8 39.6

47.3 39.8

47.8 40

48.4 40.3

49 40.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

50.3 2

50.6 2.3

50.9 2.3

51.2 2.1

51.6 2.5

51.9 2.6

52.3 2.7

52.6 2.8

53 2.8

53.3 2.8

53.7 2.8

54.1 2.8

54.5 2.8

54.9 2.9

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

2208.6 0.9

2211.2 1.3

2214.4 1.1

2221.8 0.9

2230.9 1

2240 1.3

2248.5 1.5

2259.7 1.7

2273.7 1.9

2288.6 2.2

2302.8 2.4

2317.9 2.6

2332.6 2.6

2349.1 2.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

72.5 -2.5

72.6 -0.6

72.7 -0.1

73.3 0.3

73.6 1.4

73.9 1.8

74.3 2.2

74.7 2

75.1 2

75.5 2.1

75.9 2.2

76.4 2.3

76.9 2.5

77.4 2.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2136.1 1

2138.6 1.4

2141.7 1.1

2148.5 0.9

2157.3 1

2166.1 1.3

2174.2 1.5

2185 1.7

2198.6 1.9

2213.1 2.2

2226.9 2.4

2241.5 2.6

2255.7 2.6

2271.7 2.6

84.7 -3.6

83.4 -1.9

81.7 -3.8

80.8 -4.5

80.1 -5.4

80.2 -3.9

80.6 -1.3

82.2 1.8

84.3 5.3

87 8.5

90.1 11.7

93.6 13.8

97.2 15.2

101.1 16.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

507.5 0.9

509.3 1.4

512.1 1.9

515.8 2.3

519.7 2.4

523.6 2.8

526.1 2.7

528.2 2.4

531.3 2.2

533.5 1.9

534.3 1.6

535.7 1.4

537.4 1.1

539.5 1.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

131.4 284.6 89.6

132.1 284.9 90.1

132.9 285.3 90.8

133.8 286.8 91.5

134.6 288.5 92.3

135.6 290.3 93

136.4 291.3 93.7

137.3 292.2 94.5

138.5 293.5 95.5

139.4 294.1 96.6

140.1 293.7 97.4

141 293.5 98.3

141.9 293.8 99.1

142.9 294.4 99.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

41.3 -4.7

41.6 -3.1

42.2 -0.6

42 0.7

41.6 0.8

41.9 0.6

42.5 0.6

43 2.4

43.1 3.7

42.9 2.5

42.8 0.8

42.9 -0.1

43.2 0.1

43.5 1.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

150.3 -1

150.2 -0.6

150.5 -0.9

150.9 -0.7

151.5 0.8

151.9 1.2

152.3 1.2

152.2 0.9

152.3 0.5

152.5 0.4

152.5 0.2

152.6 0.3

152.7 0.3

152.9 0.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

336.9 1.6

338.9 2.9

339 1.8

340.8 1

343.8 2

346.1 2.1

349.1 3

354.4 4

362 5.3

370.1 6.9

377 8

384.7 8.6

392.7 8.5

400.9 8.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

347.8 3.4

348.7 3.2

349.3 2.5

350.9 2.9

352.4 1.3

353.2 1.3

354.2 1.4

355.9 1.4

356.8 1.3

358.2 1.4

360.8 1.9

362.4 1.8

362.8 1.7

363.9 1.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

259.3 3.2

260.5 3.2

262.5 3.5

264.8 1.4

266.7 2.8

267.8 2.8

268.4 2.2

268.2 1.3

267.7 0.4

267.5 -0.1

267.5 -0.3

267.4 -0.3

267 -0.2

266.9 -0.2

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

93.2 -1.1

93.3 -1.1

93.4 -0.6

93.2 -1.2

93.2 0.1

93.3 -0.1

93.1 -0.1

93.2 -0.1

93.3 0.2

93 -0.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

33.4 -6.9

32.8 -4.7

32.6 -4.2

32.4 -1.6

32.1 -3.8

32 -2.7

31.7 -2.7

31.5 -2.7

31.3 -2.6

31.1 -2.8

30.9 -2.7

30.7 -2.6

30.5 -2.5

30.3 -2.4

281.7 1.1

279.8 -0.1

278.3 -1

277.1 -1.1

276.2 -2

276.1 -1.3

276.1 -0.8

276.4 -0.3

276.7 0.2

277.2 0.4

277.7 0.6

278.3 0.7

279 0.8

279.7 0.9

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

242010 243033 243971 245048 246175 247529 248977 251256 253722 256272 258913 261872 264757 267999

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

5656 1.1

5672.4 1.2

5688.8 1.2

5706.1 1.2

5723.8 1.2

5741.7 1.2

5759.9 1.2

5778.4 1.3

5797.5 1.3

5816.8 1.3

5836.4 1.3

5856.7 1.4

5877.1 1.4

5898 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2916.5 1.4

2917.1 0.6

2915.8 0.1

2917 -0.2

2919.8 0.1

2921 0.1

2923.5 0.3

2926.3 0.3

2929 0.3

2932.6 0.4

2935.2 0.4

2938.2 0.4

2942.3 0.5

2946.1 0.5

Unemployment Rate (%)

11.1

11.2

11.1

10.8

10.6

10.4

10.1

9.8

9.5

9.1

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

7017 4206 2811

8619 4403 4216

8749 4523 4227

9420 4714 4706

10708 5138 5571

12001 5679 6322

13927 6721 7206

16074 8030 8044

18000 9398 8602

20123 10807 9316

22140 12041 10100

24294 13542 10752

26623 15222 11402

28723 16438 12286

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

N a p l e s – M a r co I s l a n d

Profiles The Naples–Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier County only. Located on the southwest coast of Florida, the area is notable for numerous recreation and leisure activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the “Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida.” Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 321,520 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 138,631 in June 2011 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 11.3% as of June 2011, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 15,662 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). Top Area Employers: • Collier County Public Schools – 5,365 employees • Naples Community Hospital – 3,007 employees • Publix Super Market, Inc – 2,214 employees

O u t l oo k S umm a r i e s The Naples–Marco Island MSA is expected to show strong growth in the economic indicators. The metro area will show a moderate personal income growth of 4.5 percent. Per capita income level, which is expected to be 54.5, is the highest of the studied metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). Average annual wage will be at a level of 50.4. The average annual wage is expected to grow at a rate of 3.1 percent, the highest of the twelve MSAs. Population growth will average 1.8 percent, one of the highest in the studied areas and the Gross Metro Product level will be 14,431.98 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to average 1.2 percent each year. The metro will see an unemployment rate of 10.6 percent. The Professional and Business Services sector represents Naples’ fastest growing sector, growing at a rate of 4.6 percent each year. The Construction and Mining sector follows with a growth rate of 2.4 percent. The Information, Leisure, and Federal Government sectors are expected to decline this quarter at -1.0 percent, -1.1 percent, and -1.7 percent respectively.

• Wal-Mart – 1,547 employees • Marriott Corporation – 743 employees • County Sheriff’s Department – 838 employees • Winn-Dixie Stores, Inc – 760 employees • Ritz Carlton, Naples – 758 employees • Fifth Third Bank – 733 employees • Naples Grande Resort – 605 employees Source: Enterprise Florida, Inc., 2011

M e t r o N e ws S umm a r i e s Water samples show no sign of algae bloom off Collier shores • Florida Fish and Wildlife Research Institute collected samples to figure out what was turning local waters and beaches a rusty brown color. Dead fish littered the sandy white beaches of the shore. • The samples contained algae, as ocean water should. Levels of algae were too low to be called a bloom, and dissolved oxygen levels were average. • Though some algae don’t require certain catalysts to bloom, fertilizer or animal waste run-off can often spur a bloom. Source: Naples News, July 29, 2011

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

N a p l e s – M a r co I s l a n d

East Naples drainage project moves ahead, pipe to require cut through U.S. 41

Shopping center gets green light in Golden Gate Estates

• Collier County commissioners permitted construction of the second phase of the drainage plan, though the project was to be completed before this year’s hurricane season.

• Golden Gate Estates, a 41-acre shopping plaza, may be open in two years in the heart of this rural community. The mall will be located on Golden Gate and Wilson Boulevards.

• The County will pay $361,906.44 to the contractor to split U.S. 41 to insert a drainage pipe. The contingency fund is valued at $112,500.

• The mall will be developed by Crown Management Services. The size of the mall has been capped by commissioners at 150,000 square feet though, with future approval, it could expand to 190,000 square feet.

• The pipe will connect the Gateway Triangle to another drainage mechanism on Palm Street. Previously, the outfall would drain into the Brookside canal, but residents swayed county officials by saying the project would violate private property rights. Source: Naples News, July 30, 2011 Clearing begins for shopping center near I-75 interchange at Alligator Alley • Benderson Development Company, Inc. owns multiple properties in the Collier County area, including four retail centers. The company is looking to begin building another complex.

• The plaza will be anchored with a grocery store in the middle. The developer is also looking for restaurants and banks, but no liquor stores or bars. Source: Naples News, September 14, 2011 New retailer, 3 restaurants coming to Gulf Coast Town Center • Elevation Burger, Connors Steak & Seafood, Key’s Bar and Grille and G.N.C. will be joining the Gulf coast Town Center soon.

• The proposed plaza will have multiple retail stores. Contracts are now being negotiated with these companies.

• Shoppers can find Elevation Burger by Rita’s Ice, as Connors will be beside LA fitness. Consumers can find the Keys Bar between Dick’s and Charlotte Russe.

• Collier County plans to improve the I-75 and Alligator Alley area. The $30 million project is forecasted to start in the fall.

• Gulf Coast Town Center is overseen by CBL & Associates, Inc. among other groups. The plaza boasts 75 specialty shops and 28 restaurants.

• Golden Gate High School, Noah’s Landing Apartments and Mike Davis Elementary School are close to the forthcoming retail plaza.

• The Golf Coast executives hope these stores will be a great addition to the mall and community.

Source: Naples News, August 6, 2011

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

Source: Naples News, September 27, 2011

N a p l e s â&#x20AC;&#x201C; M a r co I s l a n d Naples - Marco Island MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.8

18000.0

1.4

1.6

1.8

(Millions 2000 $)

14000.0 12000.0 10000.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate

8000.0

(Thousands)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Real Personal Income 24.0%

130.0

20.0%

120.0

16.0%

(percent change year ago)

12.0%

110.0

8.0%

100.0

4.0%

90.0 80.0

1.2

Naples Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Payroll Employment 140.0

16000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

0.0%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Naples Payroll Employment

-4.0%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

N a p l e s â&#x20AC;&#x201C; M a r co I s l a n d

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

October 2011

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

16.8 10.6 5.6 11.2

19.1 14 6 13.1

19.9 4.2 6.1 13.8

20.1 0.8 5.6 14.5

19.1 -4.8 5.1 14

19.3 1 5.2 14.2

20 3.7 5.2 14.8

20.7 3.6 5.4 15.4

21.6 4 5.7 15.9

23 6.6 6.1 16.9

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

16.8 7.4

18.6 11

18.9 1.5

18.5 -2.4

17.5 -5

17.4 -0.8

17.6 1.4

18 2.2

18.4 2.2

19.2 4.2

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

54.5 54.5

61.2 59.6

63.3 60

63.4 58.2

59.9 54.8

59.8 53.9

61.3 53.9

62.6 54.3

63.9 54.5

66.4 55.4

Average Annual Wage (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago

44.2 5.1

44.9 1.8

46.8 4.2

46.2 -1.4

45.7 -1.1

46.7 2.3

48.2 3.3

49.6 2.7

51.1 3.1

52.7 3.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

125.9 6.5

132.7 5.4

129.6 -2.3

121 -6.6

110.8 -8.5

109.7 -1

108 -1.6

107.9 -0.1

111 2.9

115.1 3.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

3.2 3

3.3 3.7

3.3 -1.3

3 -9.7

2.6 -11.2

2.4 -7.2

2.4 -2.7

2.4 1

2.5 2.8

2.5 3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

122.7 6.6

129.4 5.4

126.3 -2.3

118.1 -6.5

108.1 -8.4

107.3 -0.8

105.6 -1.6

105.5 -0.1

108.6 2.9

112.6 3.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

20.3 21.3

23.9 17.7

19.7 -17.7

14.4 -26.6

10.4 -27.8

9 -13.4

8.9 -1.2

8.7 -1.8

8.9 1.5

9.9 11

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

24.3 5.7

24.5 1

24.2 -1.3

23 -5

21.2 -7.7

21.2 -0.1

20.5 -3.1

20.9 1.6

21.6 3.5

22.1 2.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.4 19.1 1.8

3.2 19.5 1.7

3.4 19.2 1.6

3.3 18.2 1.5

3.1 16.7 1.5

3 16.7 1.5

2.8 16.3 1.5

2.7 16.5 1.5

2.8 17 1.6

3 17.4 1.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.8 0

1.9 3.2

1.8 -5

1.8 -1

1.6 -8.9

1.6 -3

1.5 -7.2

1.4 -2.2

1.5 3.3

1.5 2.3

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.7 9.4

8.2 5.7

8.2 0.1

7.3 -10.4

6.6 -9.8

6.6 -0.3

6.4 -2.9

6.4 1

6.6 2.7

6.8 2.1

13.1 -7.9

13.6 4.1

12.6 -7.7

12 -4.6

11.5 -4.2

11.9 3.6

12.2 2.1

12.2 0.1

13 6.8

14.2 9.2

15 7.7

15.9 5.8

16.7 5.3

16.9 0.8

16.6 -1.3

17 2.3

17.2 1.1

17.6 2.1

18 2.5

18.5 2.9

21.8 7.3

22.2 1.8

23.3 4.8

22.8 -2

21 -8.2

20.9 -0.4

19.9 -4.7

19.3 -3

19.7 2.2

19.9 1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

5.7 5.2

5.8 1.9

6 3.1

6 0.4

5.7 -5.2

5.6 -0.9

5.6 -0.5

5.7 2.1

5.8 1.9

5.9 1.8

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.7 0.1

0.7 0

0.7 -3.7

0.7 1.3

0.8 14.4

0.7 -8.3

0.7 3.8

0.7 -1.3

0.7 -1.1

12.3 2.9

12.7 3.4

13.3 4.5

13.2 -0.3

12.9 -2.8

12.7 -1

12.8 0.3

12.6 -1.7

12.8 1.5

13.1 2.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

14996.4

15917

15608.6

14603

13715.7

13949.8

13896.1

14038.7

14516.6

15276.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

307.7 3.4

312.6 1.6

314.9 0.7

317.2 0.7

319.6 0.8

322.8 1

326.8 1.2

331.5 1.4

337.8 1.9

346.3 2.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

144 4.4

150.7 4.6

150.7 0

148.1 -1.8

143.8 -2.9

144.7 0.6

141.6 -2.1

143.6 1.4

149.1 3.9

153.4 2.9

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.4

4.2

6.8

10.8

11.3

10.9

10.6

9.7

5793 4034 1759

4472 3054 1419

1991 1163 828

971 668 304

834 645 190

1167 801 366

1338 1000 337

1786 1050 736

2655 1462 1193

3822 2211 1611

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

N a p l e s â&#x20AC;&#x201C; M a r co I s l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

October 2011

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

20.1 3.8 5.2 14.9

20.2 4.2 5.2 15

20.4 3.1 5.3 15.2

20.6 3 5.3 15.3

20.9 4 5.4 15.4

21.1 4.1 5.5 15.6

21.2 3.9 5.6 15.6

21.4 4 5.7 15.8

21.7 4.1 5.8 16

22 4.3 5.8 16.1

22.4 5.7 5.9 16.5

22.8 6.2 6 16.7

23.2 6.9 6.1 17.1

23.6 7.5 6.3 17.4

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

17.6 1.2

17.7 1.9

17.8 1.4

18 2

18.1 2.8

18.2 2.6

18.2 2.2

18.3 2

18.5 2.2

18.6 2.3

18.9 3.6

19 3.9

19.3 4.5

19.5 5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

61.3 53.7

61.6 53.9

62 54.1

62.4 54.3

62.8 54.4

63.2 54.5

63.3 54.4

63.7 54.4

64.1 54.5

64.5 54.6

65.4 55

66 55.2

66.8 55.5

67.5 55.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

48.4 3.3

48.7 2.6

49 2.6

49.4 2.5

49.7 2.9

50.1 2.9

50.5 3

50.9 3.2

51.3 3.1

51.7 3.1

52.1 3.1

52.5 3.1

52.9 3.1

53.3 3.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

106.6 -3.4

106.9 -2

106.8 -2.6

107.5 -1.1

108.3 1.6

109 1.9

109.6 2.6

110.5 2.8

111.5 2.9

112.5 3.3

113.6 3.7

114.6 3.7

115.6 3.7

116.6 3.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2.3 -1.8

2.4 -1.4

2.4 0.3

2.4 -1

2.4 2.3

2.4 2.6

2.4 3

2.5 2.7

2.5 2.8

2.5 3

2.5 2.9

2.5 3

2.6 3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

104.3 -3.5

104.5 -2

104.4 -2.7

105.1 -1.1

105.9 1.6

106.6 1.9

107.1 2.6

108.1 2.8

109 2.9

110.1 3.3

111.1 3.7

112.1 3.7

113 3.7

114.1 3.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

8.8 -4.5

8.8 -1

8.8 -2.4

8.8 -2.9

8.8 -0.4

8.7 -1.3

8.7 -0.8

8.8 0.2

8.9 1.7

9.1 4.9

9.4 8.2

9.7 10.5

10 12.1

10.3 13.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

20.4 -4.9

20.4 -1.7

20.5 -0.8

20.7 0.8

20.9 2.9

21.2 3.6

21.3 3.7

21.5 3.6

21.7 3.5

21.8 3.2

21.9 3

22 2.5

22.2 2.2

22.3 2.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

2.7 16.2 1.5

2.7 16.3 1.5

2.7 16.4 1.5

2.7 16.5 1.6

2.7 16.7 1.6

2.8 16.8 1.6

2.8 16.9 1.6

2.8 17.1 1.6

2.9 17.2 1.7

2.9 17.3 1.7

3 17.4 1.7

3 17.5 1.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 -10.6

1.4 -6.4

1.4 -5.4

1.4 -5

1.4 1

1.4 1.2

1.4 1.6

1.5 3.3

1.5 4.6

1.5 3.6

1.5 2.4

1.5 1.7

1.5 2

1.5 3.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.3 -4.1

6.3 -1.9

6.4 -2

6.4 0.9

6.5 2.6

6.5 2.8

6.6 3

6.6 2.8

6.6 2.6

6.7 2.5

6.7 2.2

6.8 2.2

6.8 1.9

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

11.9 -2.2

12 -2.4

12 -2.9

12.1 -2

12.2 2.5

12.4 3.1

12.5 4.6

12.8 6

13.1 7.4

13.5 9

13.8 9.9

14.1 9.8

14.3 9.1

14.6 8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

17.3 1.3

17.4 2.4

17.4 2

17.5 2.7

17.6 2

17.7 1.9

17.8 2.4

18 2.6

18.1 2.5

18.2 2.8

18.4 3.3

18.5 2.9

18.6 2.8

18.7 2.9

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

19.2 -7.8

19.2 -7.1

19 -9.4

19.2 -5.5

19.4 1.4

19.6 2.1

19.6 3.6

19.7 2.6

19.7 1.5

19.8 1

19.9 0.9

19.9 1

20 1.1

5.6 -1

5.6 0.8

5.7 1.7

5.7 2.6

5.7 2.1

5.7 1.9

5.8 1.9

5.8 1.8

5.9 1.8

5.9 1.9

5.9 2.1

5.9 1.9

5.9 1.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.8 -1.6

0.7 4.6

0.7 5.1

0.7 13.3

0.7 -0.9

0.7 -1

0.7 -1.2

0.7 -1.4

0.7 -1.5

0.7 -1.3

0.7 -1.2

0.7 -1

0.7 -0.9

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

12.7 -0.8

12.6 -1.4

12.6 -3.2

12.6 -2.7

12.6 -0.8

12.6 -0.1

12.6 0.6

12.7 1.2

12.8 1.8

12.9 2.2

12.9 2.3

13 2.4

13.1 2.3

13.2 2.3

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

13803

13878

13907

13994

14083

14171

14264

14428

14597

14778

14973

15172

15371

15590

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

327.3 1.2

328.5 1.3

329.6 1.4

330.8 1.4

332 1.5

333.4 1.5

335 1.6

336.8 1.8

338.7 2

340.6 2.2

342.8 2.3

345 2.4

347.4 2.6

349.9 2.7

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

139.4 -2.6

140.5 -2.8

141.5 -1.6

142.9 0.1

144.2 3.4

145.6 3.6

147.1 3.9

148.4 3.9

149.8 3.9

151.3 3.9

152 3.4

152.9 3

153.9 2.7

154.8 2.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%)

11.2

10.9

10.7

10.5

10.3

9.8

9.6

9.3

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1301 1041 260

1632 1085 547

1625 1072 553

1719 1052 667

1810 1032 778

1988 1043 946

2252 1189 1063

2563 1374 1189

2751 1545 1206

3053 1740 1314

3344 1899 1446

3657 2109 1549

3991 2342 1649

4295 2493 1802

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Ocala

Profiles Comprised of Marion County only, the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area in the center of the state. The second-largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area. Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 331,298 as of July 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 133,035 in June 2011 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 12.6% as of June 2011, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 16,774 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Marion County Public Schools – 5,875 employees • State of Florida – 2,700 employees • Munroe Regional Medical Center – 2,481 employees • Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – 2,370 employees

O u t l oo k S umm a r i e s The Ocala MSA is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 4.7 percent annually, the highest of the twelve metros. Per capita income level is the second lowest of the twelve metros at 29.6. Relative to other metro areas, Ocala will have one of the lowest average annual wage levels of the MSAs, at 39.3. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.8 percent. The metro has an expected annual population growth of 1.3 percent. The Gross Metro Product is expected to be 6,942.98 (Mill), the lowest in the studied areas. Employment growth is expected to average a rate of 1.6 percent annually. The unemployment rate is estimated to be 12.2 percent, the highest of the researched areas. The Professional and Business Services sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in Ocala, averaging an annual growth rate of 4.5 percent. The Education and Health Services sector follows with a growth rate of 2.8 percent. The third ranked is the Construction and Mining sector at 2.3 percent. The Informational and Federal Government sectors are expected to show negative growth at -0.2 percent and -7.0 percent respectively.

• Marion County Board of County Commissioners – 1,500 employees • Ocala Regional Medical Center and West Marion Community Hospital – 1,300 • Publix Supermarkets, Inc. – 1,275 employees • AT&T – 1,000 employees • City of Ocala – 942 employees • Marion County Sheriff’s Office – 885 employees Source: Marion County Public Schools

M e t r o N e ws S umm a r i e s Munroe making way for new pediatric ER • Ocala’s Munroe Regional Medical Center has begun clearing out its facilities for construction of its new $6.8 million Children’s Emergency Department. The current treatment center for children is located across the street, but the new one will be located adjacent to the adult emergency room. • The expansion is funded by donations to the Munroe Foundation. Source: Ocala Star Banner, July 1, 2011

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

Ocala

County commissioners cut fire tax over firefighter objections • Marion County reduced its property tax that pays for the fire department from $0.83 per $1,000 in taxable value to $0.77 per $1,000 in taxable value. • The county cited $2.4 million in surplus in the fire department last year, while firefighters thought that the reduced rate would only provide a small savings to the average tax payer and yet threaten the department’s service to residents. Source: Ocala Star Banner, August 2, 2011

Big greenhouse project may create 700 jobs • Organic Specialty Farms LLC of Wimauma Florida is planning to construct about 2,500 greenhouses on about 180 acres of land in southern Marion County. • They expect to employ about 700 workers to run the greenhouses. • Organic Specialty Farms offers locally grown organic and hard-to-find produce to an emerging “slow food” movement. Source: Ocala Star Banner, August 26, 2011

Billionaire to put cattle ranch on property • Canadian billionaire Frank Stronach has purchased over 14,000 acres to create a cattle ranching operation in northern Marion County near Fort McCoy. • The facility is expected to provide 150 jobs and so far Stronach has spent $62 million on land and is projected to spend much more before the project is completed. Stronach has promised residents that the facility will be odor free and barely noticeable. Source: Ocala Star Banner, August 6, 2011 Ocala, county unanimously back Ocala 489 deal • The Ocala City Council and the Marion County Commission approved a deal with Ocala 489 LLC. The county will spend $14.3 million to extend a highway to the 489 property and the developers will provide access to CSX’s “S” line. • The project is expected to provide millions in new business and property tax revenues for the county and city. Source: Ocala Star Banner, August 16, 2011

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Ocala Ocala MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

(percent)

0.6

0.8

1.6

1.8

7500.0

(Millions 2000 $)

7000.0

6000.0 5500.0 5000.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0

1.4

6500.0

105.0

80.0

1.2

Ocala Real Gross Metro Product

4500.0

Ocala Payroll Employment 110.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Ocala Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Gross Metro Product

Ocala Real Personal Income 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Personal Income

Ocala

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

October 2011

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

8.6 11.9 3.3 5.3

9.6 11.7 3.7 5.9

10.2 5.6 3.8 6.4

10.3 1.8 3.7 6.6

10.2 -1.2 3.4 6.8

10.5 2.4 3.3 7.1

10.9 4.6 3.4 7.5

11.4 4.1 3.5 7.8

11.8 4 3.7 8.1

12.6 6.2 4 8.6

8.6 8.6

9.4 8.7

9.6 2.8

9.5 -1.4

9.4 -1.4

9.4 0.6

9.6 2.2

9.9 2.7

10.1 2.2

10.5 3.8

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

28.2 28.2

30.3 29.5

31.1 29.5

31.3 28.7

30.8 28.2

31.6 28.4

33 29

34.1 29.6

34.8 29.7

36.1 30.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago

32.2 4

34.5 7.3

34.9 1.2

36 3.2

36.3 0.6

36.7 1.3

37.6 2.5

38.6 2.6

39.8 3

41 3.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

101.5 5.9

106.2 4.6

106.8 0.6

101.9 -4.6

93.2 -8.6

90.5 -2.9

90.1 -0.5

91.2 1.3

93.5 2.5

96.5 3.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

9.9 3.6

9.9 -0.6

9.6 -3

8.3 -13.9

6.7 -19.3

6.4 -3.4

6.4 -1.1

6.4 -0.1

6.5 2.2

6.7 2.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

91.6 6.2

96.3 5.1

97.2 1

93.6 -3.7

86.5 -7.6

84 -2.8

83.7 -0.4

84.9 1.4

87 2.5

89.8 3.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

10.7 8.8

12.6 17.1

11.6 -7.6

9.6 -17

7.3 -24.3

6.3 -14

6 -3.9

5.8 -4.3

6 3.2

6.8 14.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

22.9 5.7

23.4 1.9

23.8 1.7

22.7 -4.5

20.5 -9.6

19.9 -3.1

20.1 1.2

20.6 2.5

21.2 3

21.6 1.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.9 16.3 2.7

4.2 16.4 2.7

4.4 16.4 2.9

4.1 15.7 2.9

3.5 14.6 2.5

3.3 14.2 2.3

3.3 14.3 2.5

3.4 14.6 2.6

3.4 15 2.7

3.5 15.2 2.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.2 -2.3

2.1 -1.9

2 -7.2

1.9 -3.1

1.7 -11.9

1.5 -10.4

1.4 -4.9

1.4 -0.4

1.5 2.9

1.5 1.7

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

5.4 11.2

5.8 6.1

6 3.6

5.9 -0.6

5.1 -13.3

4.1 -20

4 -1.6

4.1 2.1

4.2 2.1

4.3 1.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8.9 9.5

9.3 4.1

8.5 -8.3

8.1 -4.6

7.7 -5

7.5 -3.2

7.5 0.3

7.7 2.7

8.2 6.1

8.9 8.9

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

12 7.7

12.7 5.8

13.3 4.8

13.5 1.5

12.9 -4.3

13.4 3.9

13.9 3.3

14.2 2.5

14.6 2.5

15 2.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

9.2 6.3

9.7 4.8

10.6 9.5

10.4 -2.1

10 -3.8

9.9 -1.2

9.8 -0.8

10.1 3.4

10.3 1.5

10.3 0.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

4 5.2

4.1 1.9

4.3 4.6

3.9 -8.6

3.6 -7.6

3.6 0.4

3.6 -0.8

3.7 2.2

3.7 1.3

3.8 1.3

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.7 0.1

0.7 2.4

0.7 1.1

0.9 26.2

0.7 -24.5

0.7 0

0.7 -1.7

0.7 -1.6

15.4 2.3

16 3.6

16.5 2.9

16.8 2.1

16.9 0.4

16.6 -2

16.5 -0.7

16.7 1

16.9 1.8

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

6840

7254.3

7372.8

7129.3

6680.3

6648.8

6660.1

6782.6

6993.4

7335.8

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

305.2 4.2

317.3 4

326 2.8

330.2 1.3

331.4 0.3

331.3 0

331.6 0.1

334.1 0.7

339.8 1.7

348.4 2.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

126.8 6.7

132.6 4.6

136.2 2.7

138.1 1.3

135.6 -1.8

135 -0.4

132.8 -1.7

134.3 1.1

137.6 2.5

139.8 1.6

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.7

3.4

4.4

7.7

12.4

13.8

12.7

12.6

12.3

11.3

7181 6606 575

7242 6862 380

3128 2808 320

1210 1186 23

422 399 22

491 490 1

372 372 0

768 736 32

1801 1685 116

2829 2663 166

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Ocala

Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL

October 2011

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

11 4.8 3.4 7.6

11.1 4.9 3.5 7.6

11.2 4.1 3.5 7.7

11.3 3.9 3.5 7.8

11.4 4.1 3.6 7.9

11.6 4.2 3.6 7.9

11.6 3.9 3.7 8

11.8 4 3.7 8.1

11.9 4.1 3.8 8.1

12 4.2 3.8 8.2

12.3 5.4 3.9 8.4

12.5 5.8 4 8.5

12.7 6.4 4 8.7

12.9 7 4.1 8.8

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

9.6 2.2

9.7 2.6

9.8 2.4

9.9 2.8

9.9 2.9

10 2.7

10 2.2

10.1 2

10.1 2.2

10.2 2.2

10.3 3.2

10.4 3.5

10.5 4

10.7 4.5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

33.1 29.1

33.4 29.2

33.7 29.4

33.9 29.6

34.2 29.6

34.4 29.7

34.5 29.7

34.7 29.7

34.9 29.7

35.1 29.8

35.6 29.9

35.9 30

36.2 30.1

36.6 30.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

37.7 2.1

38 2.5

38.2 2.6

38.5 2.4

38.8 2.7

39 2.8

39.3 2.9

39.6 3.1

39.9 3.1

40.2 3

40.5 3

40.8 3

41.2 3.1

41.5 3.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

90.3 -0.1

90.4 0.9

90.5 0.8

91 1.3

91.4 1.3

91.9 1.7

92.4 2.1

93.1 2.4

93.8 2.6

94.6 2.9

95.3 3.2

96.1 3.2

96.8 3.2

97.6 3.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

6.3 -1.5

6.3 -1.3

6.3 -2

6.3 -1.5

6.4 1.3

6.4 1.7

6.4 2.3

6.5 2.1

6.5 2.2

6.6 2.4

6.7 2.6

6.7 2.7

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

84 0

84.1 1.1

84.2 1

84.6 1.6

85.1 1.3

85.5 1.7

86 2.1

86.6 2.4

87.3 2.7

88 2.9

88.7 3.2

89.4 3.2

90.1 3.2

90.9 3.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

6.1 -3.3

6 -2.2

5.9 -3.3

5.8 -4.7

5.7 -5.2

5.7 -4.1

5.8 -1.5

5.9 1.5

6 4.9

6.2 8.3

6.4 11.5

6.7 13.6

6.9 14.9

7.2 16

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

20.2 1.4

20.2 2.8

20.3 1.8

20.5 2

20.7 2.8

20.9 3.3

21 3.4

21.2 3.2

21.3 3

21.5 2.6

21.5 2.4

21.6 2

21.7 1.6

21.8 1.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.3 14.3 2.5

3.3 14.4 2.5

3.3 14.5 2.6

3.4 14.6 2.6

3.4 14.8 2.6

3.4 14.9 2.7

3.5 15.1 2.7

3.5 15.2 2.8

3.6 15.2 2.8

3.6 15.3 2.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 -7.4

1.4 -5.7

1.4 -3.9

1.4 0.8

1.4 0.7

1.4 0.9

1.4 1

1.5 2.9

1.5 4.4

1.5 3.4

1.5 2.1

1.5 1.1

1.5 1.3

1.5 2.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

4.1 0.3

4.1 -1.5

4.1 0.4

4.1 3.5

4.1 2.2

4.2 2.4

4.2 2.5

4.2 2.3

4.2 2

4.2 1.9

4.3 1.5

4.3 1.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.6 0.3

7.6 0.8

7.6 2.3

7.7 2.9

7.8 2.6

7.8 3

7.9 4.2

8.1 5.3

8.3 6.7

8.5 8.1

8.6 8.8

8.8 9.2

9 9

9.2 8.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

14 3.8

14 3.7

14 2.7

14.2 2.9

14.3 2.3

14.3 2.2

14.4 2.5

14.5 2.6

14.6 2.4

14.7 2.6

14.8 3

14.9 2.7

15 2.5

15.1 2.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

9.8 0

9.9 2.4

10 3.1

10.1 3.6

10.2 3.3

10.2 3.5

10.3 2.8

10.3 1.8

10.3 0.9

10.3 0.4

10.3 0.3

10.3 0.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

3.6 2.4

3.7 1

3.7 2.6

3.7 3.3

3.7 1.5

3.7 1.4

3.7 1.3

3.7 1.4

3.8 1.3

3.8 1.5

3.8 1.4

3.8 1

0.7 -23.5

0.7 -7

0.7 -4

0.7 7.5

0.7 -1.4

0.7 -1.5

0.7 -1.4

0.7 -1.7

0.7 -1.9

0.7 -2

0.7 -1.8

0.7 -1.7

0.7 -1.5

0.7 -1.4

16.6 -2.1

16.5 -1

16.5 -0.8

16.5 -0.7

16.5 -0.9

16.5 -0.3

16.5 0.2

16.6 0.8

16.7 1.4

16.8 1.6

16.8 1.8

16.9 1.9

17 1.7

17.1 1.7

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

6798

6839 6882.4 6954.4 7028.5 7108.2 7196.6 7287.3

7379 7480.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

331.6 0.1

332 0.2

332.6 0.4

333.5 0.6

334.5 0.9

335.7 1.1

337.2 1.4

338.8 1.6

340.6 1.8

342.7 2.1

344.8 2.3

347.1 2.4

349.6 2.6

352.1 2.7

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

132.4 -1.8

132.9 -1.3

133.3 0.2

133.9 0.9

134.6 1.6

135.4 1.9

136.6 2.4

137.3 2.5

138 2.5

138.6 2.4

139 1.8

139.5 1.6

140 1.5

140.6 1.5

Unemployment Rate (%)

12.6

12.7

12.6

12.5

12.3

11.7

11.5

11.2

10.8

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

306 316 -10

450 440 10

557 544 13

687 666 20

837 800 38

992 933 59

1279 1197 82

1666 1556 110

2009 1879 130

2249 2107 142

2449 2297 153

2702 2540 162

2992 2822 171

3173 2994 179

6681.8 6709.5 6729.6 6763.9

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

O r l a n do – Kissimm e e

Profiles The Orlando–Kissimmee MSA is comprised of Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole counties. Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World and numerous other Disney enterprises, Universal Studios, and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic, the Orlando Predators arena football team, and Atlanta Braves spring training at Disney’s Wide World of Sports. The University of Central Florida, the nation’s second-largest university, and many other places of higher education also reside in the MSA. QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 2,134,411 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Lake County population estimate of 297,052 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Orange County population estimate of 1,145,956 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Osceola County population estimate of 268,685 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Seminole County population estimate of 422,718 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 1,125,342 in June of 2011. • An unemployment rate of 10.4% as of June 2011, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 117,244 unemployed people in the Orlando MSA (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Walt Disney Co. – 62,200 employees • Florida Hospital (Adventist Health System) – 21,483 employees • Orange County Public Schools – 21,349 employees • Publix Super Markets Inc. – 17,521 employees • Universal Orlando – 14,300 employees • Orlando Health – 14,000 employees • Lockheed Martin Corporation – 13,000 employees • University of Central Florida – 10,346 employees • Orange County Government – 7,818 employees • Sea World Parks and Entertainment – 7,000 Source: Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission and University of Central Florida’s Institutional Knowledge Management, 2011

O u t l oo k S umm a r i e s The Orlando–Kissimmee area is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to grow at a rate of 4.6 percent annually, the second highest. The per capita income level is expected to be 32.0. Average annual wage growth will be 2.2 percent, and average annual wage will be at a level of 44.7. The Orlando MSA will see population growth of 1.8 percent, the highest of the studied MSAs. Gross Metro Product is expected to average at 99,263.03 (Mill). Employment growth is forecasted to average 2.1 percent annually, the highest of the twelve MSAs. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 9.8 percent. In the Orlando area, the fastest growing sector is expected to be the Professional and Business Services sector with an average annual growth rate of 4.1 percent. This will be followed by the Leisure sector, with an average annual growth rate of 2.4 percent. The only sector that will experience negative growth is the Federal Government sector, with an average annual rate of growth of –3.4 percent.

M e t r o N e ws S umm a r i e s Seminole schools among tops in state • Seminole County School District was recognized as one of the top school districts in the state. Florida contains 67 school districts, and Seminole County was recognized as an “A” school. • The Florida Education Commission bases its score on the Florida Comprehensive Achievement Test (FCAT). This district-wide grading system began in 2004. Source: Orlando Sentinel, July 28,2011 Orlando-area college enrollment tops 120,000 this fall • Though enrollment figures are constantly changing, Central Florida school officials estimate that 120,000 students will be attending a college in the Orlando area this fall semester. • The University of Central Florida boasts an enrollment of 58,000 this semester, a three percent increase from last semester. Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O r l a n do – Kissimm e e

• Valencia College is offering bachelor’s degrees for the first time this semester. Their expected enrollment is 42,230. The school will be staffing 31 tenure track professors as well. • Seminole State College expects an enrollment of 19,800 students, similar to last year’s figures. Source: Orlando Business Journal, August 22, 2011 SunRail project finally starts to leave the station • On August 2, Gov. Rick Scott approved the Orlando Metro Area public transportation project. An estimated $400 million funds the SunRail, paying for everything from the trains to the depots. • It is forecasted that the entire project will cost $1.2 billion. About half of it will go towards the purchase of the rail land from CSX. • FDOT says pre-construction work will begin in 2012, but no construction can start until the insurance policies are set in stone. FDOT hopes the trains will be running in mid-2014. Source: Orlando Sentinel, August 22, 2011 Shoppers go all out at Orlando outlets

will spend more on interest payments than it receives in property taxes. • The reserves are being used to improve downtown Orlando. Past projects receiving funds from the CRA include the Amway Center, Dr. Phillips Center for the Performing Arts, and the Citrus Bowl. The most popular future project is the SunRail transportation project. • The CRA collected property tax revenues of $24.6 million three years ago. This year, the revenues are forecasted to be $16.3 million. Source: Orlando Sentinel, August 29, 2011 Orlando Magic named corporation of the year • The Florida Minority Diversity Council named the Orlando Magic as corporation of the year, citing its endeavors to partner with minority-owned businesses. • This mission leads to the further economic growth and sustainability of the region. The Magic instituted a supplier diversity program in 2010, among other related programs. • Since the Magic’s inception, the corporation has invested $800,000 in women- and minority-owned businesses in the Central Florida region.

• Orlando Premium Outlets plans to expand their 550,000-sq. ft. facility for the second time in five years. The outlets owned by Simon Property Group are located around the amusement parks and attractions.

‘Avatar’ Theme Land Heads to Disney Parks

• During this economic downturn, consumers are more likely to buy their expensive brand items for less. Sales at the Premium Outlets have been on the upswing since 2009.

• Construction of the new Avatar attraction will begin in 2013. It will be in Disney’s Animal Kingdom, sharing the theme of “living in harmony with nature.”

• Tourists coming from and going to these parks often stop at the mall for shopping. Tourists are even bused in from cruise ports. The weakened dollar encourages tourists to open their wallets, as well.

• This movie hit box offices in December 2010 and dominated for months. The Avatar franchise plans to release two more movies in December of 2014 and 2015.

Source: Orlando Sentinel, August 24, 2011 Downtown Orlando: A district spends more than it collects • Mayor Buddy Dyer and Council decided to pull $4.1 million from the Downtown Commission Redevelopment Agency’s reserve fund. The Agency

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

Source: Orlando Business Journal, August 29, 2011

• Filmmaker James Cameron and producer John Landau will be working with Disney’s Imagineering team to design and develop the attraction. • Avatar as a movie flaunted some of the best special effects, 3D technology, and excellent graphics. Disney plans to carry these features over into its park. Source: The Hollywood Reporter, September 20, 2011

O r l a n do â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Kissimm e e Orlando - Kissimmee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Providing Private Service Providing Mining and Logging Construction Manufacturing Durable Goods Non-Durable Goods Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

0.8

1.6

1.8

Orlando Real Gross Metro Product 110000.0

6.0%

80000.0

4.0%

70000.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate

60000.0

Orlando Payroll Employment (Thousands)

(Millions 2000 $)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Gross Metro Product

Orlando Real Personal Income 15.0%

(percent change year ago)

12.0%

1100.0

9.0%

1050.0

6.0%

1000.0

3.0%

950.0

0.0%

900.0 850.0

1.4

90000.0

8.0%

1150.0

1.2

100000.0

10.0%

2.0%

-3.0%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 OrlandoPayroll Employment

-6.0%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O r l a n do â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Kissimm e e

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

October 2011

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

64 10.2 40.2 23.8

69.9 9.3 43.5 26.5

73.4 5 45.5 27.9

75.5 2.8 45.5 30

73.5 -2.7 42.5 31

75.2 2.3 42.7 32.4

78.4 4.3 44 34.4

81.1 3.5 45.5 35.6

84.7 4.3 47.8 36.9

89.9 6.1 50.6 39.3

64 7

68.1 6.4

69.6 2.2

69.3 -0.4

67.3 -2.9

67.6 0.5

69 2

70.4 2.1

72.2 2.5

74.9 3.8

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

32.6 32.6

34.5 33.6

35.6 33.7

36.1 33.1

34.7 31.8

35 31.5

36.1 31.7

36.7 31.9

37.6 32

38.9 32.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago

39.1 4.6

40.7 4

41.6 2.2

42.2 1.6

42.1 -0.4

42.5 1

43.2 1.7

44.1 2.1

45.2 2.5

46.4 2.6

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1022.8 5.7

1063.9 4

1090.7 2.5

1072.6 -1.7

1006.3 -6.2

1001.4 -0.5

1015.2 1.4

1028.2 1.3

1052.9 2.4

1086.8 3.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

46 2.6

45 -2.2

44.6 -0.8

42.8 -4.1

38.7 -9.5

37.5 -3.1

37.5 0

38 1.2

39 2.8

40.1 2.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

976.8 5.9

1018.9 4.3

1046.1 2.7

1029.9 -1.6

967.6 -6

963.9 -0.4

977.7 1.4

990.2 1.3

1013.9 2.4

1046.6 3.2

84.7 13.8

91.2 7.7

85.4 -6.4

72.7 -14.8

54.5 -25

47.7 -12.5

46.6 -2.3

44.8 -4

45.9 2.5

52 13.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

193.3 6.1

198.8 2.8

204 2.6

200.8 -1.6

186.1 -7.3

184.4 -0.9

186.1 1

189.6 1.9

194.9 2.8

198.8 2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

44.8 120.5 28

46.2 122.3 30.3

47.2 123.7 33

45.8 121.9 33.1

40.4 115.6 30.1

38.3 116.4 29.7

38.5 117.3 30.2

39.5 117.7 31.2

40.8 120.4 32.4

42.3 122.3 33.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

24.8 3.9

25.8 4.2

26.8 3.7

26.3 -1.8

24.9 -5.5

23.8 -4.5

23.5 -1.3

23.8 1.3

24.3 2.4

24.7 1.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

65 7

68.1 4.8

68.9 1.1

67.6 -1.8

64 -5.4

63.3 -1

62 -2.1

62.9 1.5

63.9 1.6

64.7 1.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

161.5 8.1

173.1 7.2

181.3 4.7

177.3 -2.2

165 -6.9

163.9 -0.7

165.7 1.1

168.1 1.5

176.8 5.2

192.2 8.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

102.5 5

107.5 4.9

112.7 4.8

116.4 3.3

118.5 1.8

121.2 2.3

123 1.5

125.1 1.7

128.7 2.9

132.5 3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

184.2 2.4

186.8 1.5

193.6 3.6

199.6 3.1

190.2 -4.7

195.6 2.8

206.8 5.7

212.6 2.8

214.8 1.1

215 0.1

50 4.9

53.4 6.8

55.8 4.5

51.4 -7.9

48 -6.7

47.8 -0.4

48.1 0.5

48.3 0.5

48.6 0.7

49.3 1.3

11.9 5.2

11.4 -3.8

11.5 0.4

11.8 2.8

12.1 2.6

12.7 5.2

11.7 -7.9

11.5 -1.9

11.3 -1.9

11.1 -1.8

99 3.5

102.7 3.8

106.2 3.4

105.9 -0.3

104.4 -1.4

103.7 -0.7

104.2 0.5

103.6 -0.6

104.6 1

106.4 1.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

89826.9

94507.1

97649.1

95572.1

91845.7

93532.6

94956.7

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1964.8 3.9

2024.7 3.1

2063.3 1.9

2093.1 1.4

2119 1.2

2144.2 1.2

2172.9 1.3

2208.7 1.6

2252.9 2

2306.9 2.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1007.5 4.6

1048.6 4.1

1091.4 4.1

1117.9 2.4

1109.9 -0.7

1121.8 1.1

1125.9 0.4

1129.3 0.3

1143.1 1.2

1162.6 1.7

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

96834.2 100068.9 105192.3

3.5

3.1

3.7

5.8

10.2

11.5

10.4

10.1

9.7

8.8

33817 26861 6956

30354 24302 6052

17975 12556 5419

10189 5554 4635

4659 3829 829

5041 4385 656

6579 4682 1897

8785 5722 3063

12860 8566 4295

18150 13089 5061

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

O r l a n do â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Kissimm e e

Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

October 2011

2011Q3

2011Q4

2012Q1

2012Q2

2012Q3

2012Q4

2013Q1

2013Q2

2013Q3

2013Q4

2014Q1

2014Q2

2014Q3

2014Q4

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

78.6 4.2 44.1 34.6

79.3 4.3 44.4 34.8

80 3.3 44.8 35.2

80.7 3.1 45.2 35.5

81.5 3.7 45.8 35.8

82.3 3.9 46.3 36.1

83.1 3.9 46.8 36.3

84.2 4.3 47.4 36.7

85.2 4.5 48.1 37.1

86.2 4.7 48.8 37.5

87.7 5.5 49.5 38.2

89 5.8 50.2 38.9

90.6 6.4 50.9 39.6

92.1 6.8 51.7 40.4

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

68.9 1.5

69.4 1.9

69.8 1.7

70.3 2

70.6 2.4

71 2.4

71.4 2.2

71.9 2.4

72.5 2.6

73 2.7

73.8 3.4

74.5 3.5

75.3 3.9

76.2 4.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

36.1 31.7

36.3 31.8

36.5 31.8

36.6 31.9

36.8 31.9

37 31.9

37.2 31.9

37.5 32

37.7 32.1

38 32.1

38.4 32.3

38.7 32.4

39.1 32.5

39.5 32.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

43.2 1.3

43.5 2.1

43.7 2.1

43.9 1.8

44.2 2.3

44.5 2.4

44.8 2.4

45.1 2.6

45.3 2.5

45.6 2.5

45.9 2.6

46.2 2.5

46.5 2.6

46.8 2.6

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1015.3 1.2

1017.8 1.1

1020.7 0.7

1025.2 1

1030.8 1.5

1036.1 1.8

1041.6 2

1048.4 2.3

1056.4 2.5

1065.3 2.8

1073.4 3.1

1082.1 3.2

1091.1 3.3

1100.5 3.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

37.3 -0.8

37.4 0.3

37.5 -0.1

37.9 0.2

38.1 2.2

38.4 2.6

38.6 3

38.9 2.7

39.2 2.7

39.4 2.7

39.7 2.7

40 2.8

40.3 2.9

40.6 2.9

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

978 1.3

980.4 1.2

983.2 0.8

987.3 1.1

992.7 1.5

997.8 1.8

1002.9 2

1009.5 2.2

1017.3 2.5

1025.9 2.8

1033.7 3.1

1042.1 3.2

1050.8 3.3

1060 3.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

47.2 -1

46.5 1

45.5 -0.9

44.9 -4.1

44.4 -5.9

44.3 -4.8

44.4 -2.4

45.2 0.7

46.2 4.2

47.7 7.6

49.3 10.9

51.1 13

52.9 14.4

54.8 14.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

185.5 0.3

186.2 1.2

187.4 0.6

188.8 1.1

190.4 2.7

192 3.1

193.1 3.1

194.2 2.9

195.6 2.7

196.7 2.5

197.4 2.2

198.2 2.1

199.2 1.8

200.5 1.9

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

38.7 116.3 30.5

38.9 116.4 30.6

39.1 116.7 30.9

39.4 117.3 31.1

39.6 118 31.3

40 118.8 31.6

40.3 119.4 31.8

40.6 120 32.2

41 120.9 32.6

41.4 121.5 33

41.7 121.6 33.3

42.1 121.9 33.7

42.5 122.4 34

42.9 123.2 34.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

23.5 -1.1

23.7 -0.3

24 2.5

23.8 2

23.6 0.5

23.7 0.3

24.1 0.5

24.4 2.4

24.5 3.8

24.4 2.9

24.4 1.4

24.5 0.7

24.8 1.2

25 2.5

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

62.2 -2.3

62.2 -2.2

62.5 0.1

62.7 2.6

63.1 1.5

63.4 1.8

63.6 1.9

63.7 1.7

63.9 1.4

64.2 1.3

64.3 1.1

64.5 1.2

64.8 1.3

65 1.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

165.9 1.3

166.8 1.9

166.6 1.3

167.3 1

168.7 1.7

169.9 1.9

171.6 3

174.5 4.3

178.5 5.8

182.8 7.5

186.2 8.5

190.1 8.9

194.2 8.8

198.2 8.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

122.4 0.9

122.9 1.2

123.6 0

124.7 1.3

125.8 2.7

126.4 2.9

127.3 3

128.4 2.9

129.1 2.7

130 2.8

131.4 3.3

132.3 3.1

132.8 2.9

133.6 2.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

207.4 5.6

208.3 2.9

210.1 2.4

212 2.7

213.6 3

214.5 3

215 2.3

214.9 1.4

214.6 0.5

214.7 0.1

214.8 -0.1

214.9 0

215 0.2

215.3 0.2

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

48 -0.1

48.1 0

48.3 0.5

48.2 0.2

48.3 0.7

48.4 0.5

48.5 0.5

48.5 0.7

48.7 0.8

48.9 1

49 1.1

49.2 1.4

49.4 1.5

49.5 1.3

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

11.7 -7.2

11.6 -3.4

11.6 -3.3

11.5 -0.4

11.5 -1.8

11.4 -2

11.3 -1.9

11.2 -2

11.2 -1.9

11.1 -2

11.1 -1.9

11 -1.8

11 -1.6

104.4 0.5

104 0

103.7 -0.6

103.5 -0.5

103.5 -0.9

103.7 -0.3

104 0.3

104.4 0.9

104.8 1.3

105.3 1.6

105.7 1.7

106.2 1.7

106.7 1.7

107.1 1.7

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

95217

95708

96095

96544

97042

97656

98377

99453 100609 101837 103073 104450 105864 107382

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2176.7 1.4

2185.1 1.4

2194 1.5

2203.4 1.6

2213.4 1.7

2223.9 1.8

2234.9 1.9

2246.6 2

2258.7 2

2271.6 2.1

2285 2.2

2299 2.3

2314.2 2.5

2329.4 2.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1123.7 0

1124.8 -0.5

1125.6 -0.3

1127.7 0.1

1130.5 0.6

1133.3 0.8

1136.7 1

1140.7 1.1

1145 1.3

1150.1 1.5

1154.7 1.6

1159.7 1.7

1165.3 1.8

1170.8 1.8

Unemployment Rate (%)

10.3

10.2

10.1

9.9

9.8

9.7

9.5

9.2

8.9

8.7

8.4

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

6416 4891 1524

7675 5138 2537

7822 5360 2462

8538 5634 2904

9064 5810 3253

9714 6081 3633

10638 6785 3854

12338 8018 4320

13546 9150 4397

14918 10309 4609

16083 11250 4833

17444 12467 4977

18947 13859 5088

20126 14778 5348

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P a l m B a y – M e l bou r n e – Ti t us v i l l e

Profiles The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is comprised of Brevard County only. Typically known as “Florida’s Space Coast,” this area is home to the Kennedy Space Center. Located in the central part of Florida’s east coast, the region is home to Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, Patrick Air Force Base, and government contractors such as Harris Corporation. Like much of Florida, this area is growing fast; Port Canaveral is now a leading cruise-ship port. Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 543,376 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 262,750 in May 2011 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 10.8% as of May 2011, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 28,398 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Brevard County Schools – 8,535 employees

O u t l oo k S umm a r i e s The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is expected to see moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 3.8 percent each year. Per capita income levels should average 34.5. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.0 percent, the second highest of the studied MSAs. Average annual wage levels should be at 51.0. Population growth is expected to be an average of 1.1 percent, and the Gross Metro Product level is expected to be 16,751.10 (Mill). Employment growth is forecasted to average 0.5 percent each year, the lowest of the studied MSAs. The metro will be seeing an average unemployment rate of 11.1 percent. Construction and Mining is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 1.8 percent growth annually. The Trade, Transportation, and Utilities sector follows with a 1.8 percent average annual growth rate. The State and Local government, Information, Professional and Business Services, and Federal Government sectors will experience a decline of -0.7, -0.7, -1.1, and -3.1 percent, respectively.

• Harris Corporation – 6,391 employees • United Space Alliance – 6,300 employees • Health First, Inc. – 6,000 employees • 45th Space Wing – 4,174 employees • Space Gateway Support – 3,000 employees • Brevard County – 2,500 employees • Wuesthoff Health System, Inc. – 2,400 employees • Northrop Grumman Corporation – 2,000 employees • The Boeing Co. – 1,962 employees • NASA – 1,577 employees Source: Economic Development of Florida’s Space Coast

M e t r o N e ws S umm a r i e s August home sales rise in Brevard, but median price dives • Brevard County saw 593 home sales in August, an increase of 109 from August of 2010. Condominium sales also showed an increase from last year. • The median price for August was $101,700; this was the lowest price since March. • Raymond Craig, the president of the Melbourne Area Association of Realtors, says that there has been a slow and steady improvement in the market. He also says that there have been multiple offers being made on homes, showing a good sign for the real estate market. Source: Florida Today, September 22, 2011

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

P a l m B a y – M e l bou r n e – Ti t us v i l l e

Brevard approves 2.5% pay raises for 625 county workers • Brevard County commissioners approved a 2.5 percent increase in salary for around 625 county workers. Most of the workers that will see a pay raise are laborers that are under contract with the Laborers International Union of North America. • No county employees have seen a pay raise in five years. • The full budget for Brevard county has not yet been approved, but both the commissioners as well as the county workers are hoping for the pay raise to stimulate the economy. Source: Florida Today, September 7, 2011 Cocoa Beach OKs $15M for water treatment • The Florida Department of Environmental Protection mandated Cocoa Beach to decrease their pollution in the Indian River Lagoon. • A $15.1 million contract was given to Wharton Smith Inc. to install sewage treatment equipment in order to lessen the pollutants going into the lagoon.

new college will undoubtedly bring in new jobs to Melbourne and help the unemployment rate. • The pilot training college will cost around $48 million, but the tax breaks will help lower the cost considerably. Source: Florida Today, September 7, 2011 Low-cost housing in demand in Brevard • As unemployment stays around eleven percent in Brevard, the demand for low-cost housing has increased sharply. • There are many vacancies in government housing and subsidies, but many people that lost their jobs recently do not qualify. • Mike Bean, the chief executive officer of Brevard Housing and director of the Melbourne Housing Authority, says that the federal housing program is not meant for the economic times we are in right now. Many people that need the federal housing do not qualify because of incomes they may have made in the past. Source: Florida Today, August 11, 2011

• The commission of Cocoa Beach decided to raise sewer and reclaimed water rates to 6.7% in order to pay for the project. Source: Florida Today, August 22, 2011 Property tax break for pilot training college could lead to 284 jobs • Pilot Training College Florida is planning to build a new campus at Melbourne International Airport. The construction of the new campus could bring in approximately 284 jobs within the next four years. • Commissioners of Melbourne decided to approve $200,000 of property tax breaks for the company to build. The commissioners realized that the

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P a l m B a y â&#x20AC;&#x201C; M e l bou r n e â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Ti t us v i l l e Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

1.5

Florida & Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Unemployment Rate 14.0%

(percent)

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL Unemployment Rate Palm Bay Unemployment Rate

18000.0 17000.0 16000.0 15000.0 14000.0 13000.0 12000.0 11000.0

200.0 190.0 180.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Palm Bay Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

(Millions 2000 $)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Gross Metro Product

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Personal Income

(Thousands)

210.0

2.5

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Gross Metro Product

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Payroll Employment 220.0

15.0% 12.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% -3.0% -6.0%

(percent change year ago)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Personal Income

P a l m B a y – M e l bou r n e – Ti t us v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

October 2011

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

17.6 7.8 8.9 8.7

18.9 7.5 9.4 9.5

19.7 4.5 9.5 10.2

20.2 2.2 9.5 10.7

20.1 -0.4 9.2 10.8

20.5 2.2 9.3 11.2

21.2 3.2 9.4 11.8

21.8 2.9 9.7 12.1

22.6 3.6 10.1 12.4

23.8 5.4 10.7 13.1

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

17.6 4.7

18.4 4.6

18.7 1.8

18.5 -1.1

18.4 -0.6

18.5 0.4

18.6 0.9

18.9 1.5

19.2 1.7

19.8 3.1

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

33.1 33.1

35.3 34.3

36.5 34.6

37.2 34.1

37 33.9

37.8 34

38.8 34.2

39.6 34.3

40.4 34.5

41.9 34.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago

41.6 4.5

42.8 2.9

43.8 2.4

45.2 3.2

46.3 2.3

47.3 2.2

48.9 3.5

50.2 2.6

51.7 3

53.3 3

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

211 3.4

216.3 2.5

213.8 -1.2

207.4 -3

196.8 -5.1

194.2 -1.3

189.5 -2.5

189.3 -0.1

193.2 2.1

198.3 2.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

23.9 1.2

24.6 2.7

24.1 -1.8

23.7 -1.6

21.8 -8

20.6 -5.8

20.2 -1.8

20.8 2.9

21.4 3.1

22 2.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

187.1 3.7

191.8 2.5

189.7 -1.1

183.6 -3.2

175 -4.7

173.7 -0.7

169.3 -2.5

168.5 -0.4

171.8 2

176.3 2.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

17.2 16.2

18.1 5

15.4 -15

13 -15.4

9.9 -23.8

8.6 -13.3

8.1 -5.4

7.8 -4.3

8 3

9.1 13.7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

37.1 4.5

37.4 1

36.9 -1.5

35.5 -3.8

33 -6.8

32.7 -1

33.2 1.4

33.9 2.2

34.7 2.3

35 1.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.2 28 3.8

5.5 28.3 3.6

5.6 28 3.3

5.5 26.8 3.1

5.2 24.9 2.9

5.1 24.6 3

5.1 24.9 3.2

5.2 25.3 3.2

5.4 25.8 3.3

5.6 25.9 3.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.9 6

2.9 0.1

2.9 -2.6

2.9 2.3

3 4

2.8 -7.4

2.6 -5.7

2.6 -0.9

2.7 2.4

2.7 1.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.4 7.8

8.6 2.4

8.6 0.3

8.3 -3.4

7.9 -4.8

7.7 -3.1

7.6 -1.5

7.6 0.9

7.7 1.6

7.8 0.8

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

36 4.3

37.3 3.6

36.8 -1.1

34.5 -6.3

32.3 -6.4

32 -1.2

28.2 -11.8

26.6 -5.8

28 5.3

30.2 8.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

27.3 1.8

28.2 3.1

29.3 4

30.6 4.7

31.2 1.9

32 2.5

32.4 1.4

32.9 1.5

33.5 1.8

34.2 2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

21.8 3.3

22.5 3.3

22.8 1.5

21.9 -4.2

21 -4

20.9 -0.7

20.8 -0.5

21.2 1.9

21.3 0.6

21.1 -0.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8.1 -2.8

8.1 -0.8

8 -1.1

7.9 -1.5

7.4 -5.7

7.8 4.6

8 2.9

8.1 1.5

8.2 0.6

8.2 0.4

6.1 1.9

6.2 1.7

6.2 0.6

6.2 0

6.3 1.3

6.7 7.2

6.4 -4.9

6.3 -2.1

6.1 -2.7

5.9 -2.6

22.2 -2.8

22.6 1.7

22.8 1.1

22.8 0

22.8 -0.1

22.6 -0.9

22 -2.7

21.6 -1.7

21.7 0.5

22 1.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

16233.1

16840

16839.9

16428.1

16067.1

16293.5

16136.9

16335.3

16870.7

17661.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

530.4 1.9

535.9 1

540.4 0.8

542.8 0.4

543.2 0.1

543.6 0.1

545.4 0.3

550.7 1

558.2 1.4

567.9 1.8

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

258.3 4.3

262.5 1.6

263.9 0.5

268.4 1.7

267.6 -0.3

268.2 0.2

263.3 -1.8

262.3 -0.4

264.5 0.8

267.5 1.1

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.6

3.2

4.2

6.4

10.1

11.5

11.6

11.1

10.1

8465 7198 1267

5334 4371 963

2817 2209 608

1765 1282 483

995 885 110

1110 990 120

1187 926 261

1486 1198 287

2579 2073 506

3933 3207 727

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P a l m B a y – M e l bou r n e – Ti t us v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

October 2011

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

21.2 2.9 9.4 11.8

21.3 2.8 9.4 11.9

21.5 2.3 9.5 12

21.7 2.3 9.6 12.1

21.9 3.3 9.7 12.2

22.1 3.5 9.8 12.3

22.2 3.4 9.9 12.3

22.4 3.5 10.1 12.4

22.7 3.6 10.2 12.5

22.9 3.8 10.4 12.6

23.3 4.8 10.5 12.8

23.6 5.1 10.6 12.9

23.9 5.7 10.8 13.2

24.3 6.1 10.9 13.4

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

18.6 0.2

18.7 0.5

18.8 0.6

18.9 1.3

19 2.1

19 2

19.1 1.7

19.2 1.6

19.3 1.7

19.4 1.8

19.6 2.6

19.7 2.8

19.9 3.3

20.1 3.7

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

38.8 34

39 34.1

39.2 34.2

39.4 34.3

39.7 34.4

39.9 34.4

40.1 34.4

40.3 34.4

40.5 34.5

40.8 34.5

41.3 34.7

41.6 34.8

42.1 35

42.5 35.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

49 3.1

49.3 2.5

49.7 2.6

50 2.4

50.4 2.7

50.7 2.8

51.1 2.9

51.5 3.1

51.9 3.1

52.3 3

52.7 3

53.1 3

53.5 3

53.9 3.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

188.2 -3.3

188 -2.2

188 -1.8

188.9 -0.7

189.7 0.8

190.6 1.3

191.5 1.8

192.6 2

193.8 2.1

195.1 2.4

196.5 2.6

197.6 2.6

198.8 2.6

200.1 2.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

20.2 -0.9

20.3 0.8

20.5 2.3

20.7 2.6

20.9 3.2

21 3.3

21.2 3.7

21.4 3.1

21.5 2.8

21.6 2.8

21.8 2.7

21.9 2.5

22 2.6

22.1 2.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

167.9 -3.5

167.7 -2.5

167.6 -2.2

168.1 -1.1

168.8 0.5

169.5 1.1

170.2 1.6

171.2 1.8

172.3 2.1

173.5 2.3

174.7 2.6

175.7 2.6

176.8 2.6

178 2.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

8.2 -4.6

8 -2.3

7.9 -3.4

7.8 -4

7.7 -5.4

7.7 -4.3

7.7 -1.7

7.9 1.2

8.1 4.7

8.3 8

8.6 11.2

8.9 13.3

9.3 14.6

9.6 15.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

33.4 1.4

33.4 2.5

33.5 2.2

33.8 2

34 2

34.3 2.5

34.4 2.6

34.6 2.4

34.8 2.2

34.9 1.8

35 1.6

35 1.2

35.1 0.8

35.2 0.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.1 25.1 3.2

5.2 25.2 3.2

5.2 25.3 3.2

5.3 25.5 3.3

5.3 25.6 3.3

5.3 25.7 3.3

5.4 25.8 3.4

5.4 25.9 3.4

5.5 25.9 3.4

5.5 25.9 3.5

5.6 25.9 3.5

5.6 26 3.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.6 -6.7

2.6 -4.3

2.6 -2.5

2.6 -1.8

2.6 0.3

2.6 0.4

2.7 0.8

2.7 2.4

2.7 3.7

2.7 2.7

2.7 1.4

2.7 0.8

2.7 1.1

2.8 2.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.5 -1.7

7.5 -0.2

7.6 -1.1

7.6 0.8

7.6 1.8

7.7 2.1

7.7 1.8

7.8 1.4

7.8 1.3

7.8 0.9

7.8 0.6

26.8 -16.3

26.5 -15.5

26.3 -13.6

26.4 -9

26.6 -0.6

26.9 1.4

27.2 3.3

27.6 4.5

28.2 5.9

28.8 7.4

29.4 8.1

30 8.5

30.5 8.2

31 7.6

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

32.5 1.6

32.6 1.9

32.6 1.3

32.9 1.3

33 1.8

33.1 1.7

33.2 1.9

33.5 1.9

33.6 1.7

33.7 1.7

34 2.2

34.1 1.9

34.2 1.8

34.3 1.9

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

20.7 -1.2

20.8 0.2

20.9 0.7

21.1 1.9

21.3 2.5

21.3 1.9

21.3 1

21.2 0

21.2 -0.5

21.2 -0.7

21.1 -0.8

21.1 -0.7

8 2.3

8.1 2

8.1 2.7

8.1 1.9

8.1 0.8

8.1 0.7

8.1 0.6

8.2 0.5

8.2 0.4

8.2 0.6

8.2 0.5

8.2 0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.4 -4.5

6.4 -1.7

6.3 -2.3

6.3 -1.4

6.2 -2.4

6.2 -2.5

6.2 -2.4

6.1 -2.6

6.1 -2.8

6 -2.9

6 -2.8

6 -2.7

5.9 -2.5

5.9 -2.4

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

21.9 -3.6

21.8 -3

21.7 -2.6

21.6 -2.2

21.6 -1.3

21.6 -0.8

21.6 -0.2

21.7 0.3

21.7 0.8

21.8 1.1

21.9 1.2

22 1.1

22.1 1.1

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

16081

16136

16186

16287

16381

16487

16607

16780

16955

17141

17352

17555

17758

17981

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

545.7 0.4

546.9 0.5

548.3 0.7

549.8 0.9

551.4 1

553.1 1.1

555 1.2

557 1.3

559.1 1.4

561.4 1.5

564 1.6

566.7 1.7

569.2 1.8

571.8 1.9

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

262.1 -2

262 -2.2

261.9 -1.3

262.2 -0.7

262.5 0.2

262.7 0.3

263.1 0.5

264 0.7

265 1

266 1.3

266.4 1.3

267 1.1

267.8 1.1

268.6 1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%)

11.6

11.7

11.6

11.5

11.4

11.2

10.8

10.5

10.3

9.7

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

947 890 57

1255 1010 245

1321 1078 242

1420 1155 265

1522 1237 285

1680 1324 356

1987 1577 410

2395 1926 469

2797 2250 547

3136 2540 596

3420 2767 653

3759 3064 694

4138 3396 743

4416 3600 816

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

P e n s a co l a – F e r r y P a ss – B r e n t

Profiles The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is comprised of Escambia County and Santa Rosa County. Located in the northwest corner of the state bordering Alabama, this region is home to the Pensacola Naval Air Station, Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval Aviation. This area has been referred to as the “Cradle of Naval Aviation.” QUICK FACTS: • Metro population estimate of 448,991 as of 2010 Census. (U.S. Census Bureau) • Escambia County population estimate of 297,619 as of 2010 Census. (U.S. Census Bureau) • Santa Rosa County population estimate of 151,372 as of 2010 Census. (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 214,922 in June 2011. (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 10.2% as of June 2011. This amounts to 21,980 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Database) TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • Local Government – 14,000 employees • Federal Government – 6,900 employees • State Government – 5,800 employees • Escambia County School District – 5,376 employees • Sacred Heart Health System – 5,000 employees • Baptist Health Care – 3,797 employees • Santa Rosa County School District – 2,600 employees • Lakeview Center – 2,000 employees

O u t l oo k S umm a r i e s The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is expected to see low levels of growth in the economic indicators, relative to the twelve other metro areas. Personal income growth is expected to average 3.7 percent each year. The per capita income level is expected to be 32.3. The average annual wage growth rate should be at 2.4 percent, the second lowest of the studied MSAs. The average annual wage level is expected to be 42.4. Population growth will be at a rate of 1.1 percent. The Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 13,851.10 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to average 1.2 percent each year. The unemployment rate will average 9.5 percent. Professional and Business Services will be the fastest growing sector in Pensacola, with 3.6 percent average annual growth. Construction and Mining follows with a growth rate of 2.2 percent. The State and Local Government and Federal Government sectors are expected to decrease with an average annual growth rate of -0.5 percent and -3.6 percent respectively.

M e t r o N e ws S umm a r i e s Vacationers flock to Pensacola Beach • For the month of June, the Santa Rosa Island Authority noted record-breaking numbers of vehicles traveling to Pensacola Beach. • 10,000 more vehicles were recorded traveling than in 2009, and 35,000 more vehicles were recorded than in 2010, the year of the BP Oil Spill. Source: Fox10tv.com, July 1, 2011

• Solutia, Inc. – 1,400 employees • Gulf Power Company – 1,400 employees Sources: Enterprise Florida, Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation, and Escambia County School District

Angry customers protest Gulf Power rate hike • Gulf Power Co. is seeking approval from the Public Service Commission for a 10% increase in its base rates, totaling $93.5 million. The PSC approved an interim $38.5 million increase over the summer.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P e n s a co l a – F e r r y P a ss – B r e n t

• This would be the first increase in base rates since 2001, although other costs for fuel and environmental levies have already been passed on to consumers. • Gulf Power is requesting the base increase to pay for upkeep of its infrastructure and to attract and provide a higher return for investors. • The company provides 431,000 costumers with power in eight Northwest Florida counties. Source: Pensacola News Journal, September 15, 2011 Oil Spill Recovery Act helps Northwest Florida recover • The Florida Legislature authorized $10 million per year to be spent over the next three years in eight Northwest Florida Counties affected by the BP oil spill. • The goal of the funding is to select high-impact projects in the region that will incentivize economic development, use underutilized local assets, and diversify an economy that is highly dependent on military funding. • Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, Bay, Gulf, Franklin and Wakulla Counties will have the funding distributed by the University of West Florida Office of Economic Development and Engagement, overseen by economist Rick Harper. Source: Florida Trend, August 9, 2011 Pensacola to remove eyesores from the city • The Mayor of Pensacola, Ashton Hayward, announced a plan to renovate abandoned buildings and remove eyesores from the city. • The plan, he claims, will help reduce crime and increase economic development by making the city look more attractive to tourists and replacing the buildings with ones that benefit the community.

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

• The Pensacola Police and the Escambia County Sherriff’s Office support the initiative. Source: Fox10tv.com, August 23, 2011 Santa Rosa honors businesses growing despite economic lemons • Three new industries in Santa Rosa County and eleven existing ones that added jobs were honored at the annual industry appreciation luncheon hosted by TEAM Santa Rosa Economic Development Council. • Any business whose goods or services are sold outside of Santa Rosa, Escambia, and Okaloosa Counties are considered. • The honorees represent more than 350 jobs being added to Santa Rosa County, although one, Tata Business Support Services, which added 152 jobs, will close by the end of the year. Source: Pensacola News Journal, September 24, 2011

P e n s a co l a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; F e r r y P a ss â&#x20AC;&#x201C; B r e n t Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation,Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.4

0.6

0.8

15000.0

13000.0

6.0%

12000.0

4.0%

(Millions 2000 $)

11000.0 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL Unemployment Rate Pensacola Unemployment Rate

10000.0

Pensacola Payroll Employment (Thousands)

170.0 165.0 160.0 155.0 150.0

1.4

Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product

8.0%

175.0

1.2

14000.0

10.0%

2.0%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Pensacola Payroll Employment

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Gross Metro Product

Pensacola Real Personal Income 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P e n s a co l a – F e r r y P a ss – B r e n t

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

October 2011

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

13 7.2 6.3 6.7

14.1 8.6 6.8 7.4

14.9 5.1 7 7.9

15.3 3 7 8.3

15.4 0.9 6.9 8.6

15.9 2.7 6.9 8.9

16.5 4.1 7.1 9.4

17 2.9 7.3 9.7

17.5 3 7.6 9.9

18.3 4.8 7.9 10.4

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

13 4.1

13.8 5.7

14.1 2.4

14 -0.3

14.1 0.7

14.3 0.9

14.5 1.8

14.8 1.6

14.9 1.2

15.3 2.5

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

29.6 29.6

31.9 31

33.5 31.7

34.3 31.5

34.5 31.6

35.2 31.7

36.4 32

37.1 32.3

37.8 32.3

39.1 32.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago

34.8 3.9

36.6 5.1

37.5 2.6

38.9 3.7

40 2.9

40.1 0

40.9 2

41.8 2.3

42.9 2.6

44 2.6

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

168.2 3.6

172.7 2.6

172.7 0

165.2 -4.3

157.1 -4.9

157.7 0.4

158.7 0.6

159.5 0.5

161.8 1.4

165.3 2.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

7.5 3.1

7.4 -1.4

7 -5.3

6.5 -7.9

5.4 -16.7

5.4 -0.5

5.4 0.8

5.4 0.4

5.5 1.9

5.7 2.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

160.7 3.6

165.2 2.8

165.7 0.3

158.8 -4.2

151.7 -4.5

152.3 0.4

153.3 0.6

154.1 0.5

156.3 1.4

159.6 2.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

13.9 19.4

15.4 10.4

14.7 -3.9

12.7 -14.1

10.6 -16.2

10.2 -3.9

10 -2

9.5 -4.7

9.7 2.3

11 13

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

33.1 6.1

33 -0.2

33.8 2.4

32.3 -4.5

30.1 -6.8

29.1 -3.3

29.4 0.9

29.9 1.9

30.5 1.9

30.8 0.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

6.2 21.9 5

6.2 21.8 5

6.7 22.2 4.9

6.1 21.3 4.9

5.4 20.1 4.6

5 20 4.1

4.9 20.3 4.1

5 20.7 4.2

5.1 21 4.3

5.2 21.1 4.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.8 -4.7

3.8 0.7

3.6 -5.8

3.5 -2.6

3.2 -6.8

3.3 1.6

3.2 -2.3

3.2 0.4

3.3 2

3.3 1.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.2 9.9

8.9 8.4

9.2 3

8.8 -3.7

8.6 -2.8

8.4 -2.2

8.4 -0.4

8.4 0.9

8.5 1.1

8.6 0.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

20.9 8

21 0.6

20 -4.7

18.6 -7.2

17.9 -3.7

19 6.2

19.2 1

19.4 1.1

20.4 4.8

21.9 7.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

26.6 -2.8

28.1 5.8

29.3 4.1

28.8 -1.4

28.6 -0.9

29.3 2.5

30 2.4

30.3 1

30.6 1.3

31.1 1.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

17.6 -0.9

18 2.4

18 -0.1

17.9 -0.4

17.6 -1.8

17.6 0.2

18.5 5.1

19.1 3

19.1 0.4

19 -0.9

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

7.8 -1.6

7.8 0

7.8 -0.5

7.3 -6.4

6.7 -8.5

6.3 -4.9

6.3 -1.1

6.3 1.1

6.4 0.4

6.4 0.3

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.7 -0.5

6.7 0.4

6.6 -2.5

6.5 -0.8

6.5 0.3

7.2 10

6.7 -6.8

6.6 -1.8

6.4 -3

6.2 -2.9

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

22.2 2

22.5 1.4

22.7 1

22.3 -1.8

21.9 -2.1

21.8 -0.1

21.7 -0.8

21.3 -1.6

21.3 -0.1

21.4 0.6

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

13021.6

13476.9

13635.4

13242.4

12965.2

13301.9

13465.2

13614.7

13903.8

14420.7

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

439.9 0.9

443.2 0.8

443.9 0.1

445.8 0.4

447.6 0.4

450 0.5

453.1 0.7

457.4 0.9

462.7 1.2

469.3 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

201.5 4

205.6 2

209 1.7

208.1 -0.4

208 -0.1

211.3 1.6

211.9 0.3

211.4 -0.2

212.7 0.6

213.8 0.5

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.7

5.8

9.3

10.5

9.9

9.5

8.6

3782 3284 498

2777 2322 455

2468 1780 688

1332 1125 207

1025 973 52

1719 1362 357

1199 1190 8

1030 938 92

1408 1162 246

1975 1718 256

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

P e n s a co l a – F e r r y P a ss – B r e n t

Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

October 2011

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

16.6 4.2 7.1 9.4

16.7 3.9 7.2 9.5

16.8 3.1 7.2 9.6

16.9 2.8 7.3 9.7

17.1 2.9 7.3 9.7

17.2 3 7.4 9.8

17.3 2.9 7.5 9.8

17.4 3 7.5 9.9

17.6 3 7.6 10

17.7 3.2 7.7 10

18 4.2 7.8 10.2

18.2 4.5 7.9 10.3

18.5 5 8 10.5

18.7 5.5 8.1 10.6

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

14.5 1.5

14.6 1.6

14.7 1.4

14.7 1.7

14.8 1.7

14.8 1.5

14.8 1.2

14.9 1.1

14.9 1.2

15 1.2

15.1 2

15.2 2.2

15.3 2.7

15.5 3.1

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

36.5 32

36.7 32.1

36.9 32.2

37 32.3

37.2 32.3

37.4 32.3

37.5 32.2

37.7 32.2

37.9 32.3

38.1 32.3

38.6 32.5

38.9 32.5

39.3 32.6

39.6 32.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

40.9 1.9

41.2 2.3

41.4 2.3

41.6 2

41.9 2.3

42.2 2.4

42.5 2.5

42.7 2.7

43 2.6

43.3 2.6

43.6 2.6

43.9 2.6

44.1 2.6

44.4 2.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

159.1 0.5

159 0.7

158.9 0.4

159.3 0.7

159.7 0.4

160.2 0.7

160.6 1.1

161.4 1.3

162.1 1.5

163 1.8

164 2.1

164.8 2.2

165.7 2.2

166.6 2.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

5.4 0.9

5.4 0.4

5.4 -0.8

5.4 -0.2

5.4 1.1

5.5 1.5

5.5 2

5.5 1.8

5.6 1.9

5.6 2.1

5.7 2.3

5.7 2.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

153.7 0.5

153.6 0.7

153.5 0.4

153.8 0.7

154.3 0.4

154.7 0.7

155.1 1

155.8 1.3

156.6 1.5

157.5 1.8

158.4 2.1

159.2 2.2

160 2.2

160.9 2.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

10.1 -7.5

9.9 -1.5

9.7 -3.5

9.5 -4.3

9.4 -6.1

9.4 -4.9

9.4 -2.4

9.6 0.6

9.8 4

10.1 7.3

10.4 10.5

10.8 12.5

11.2 13.8

11.6 14.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

29.5 1.8

29.6 2.5

29.6 1.9

29.8 1.6

30 1.7

30.2 2.2

30.3 2.3

30.4 2.1

30.6 1.9

30.7 1.5

30.7 1.3

30.7 0.9

30.8 0.6

30.8 0.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.9 20.5 4.1

4.9 20.6 4.2

5 20.7 4.2

5 20.8 4.2

5 20.9 4.2

5 21 4.3

5.1 21.1 4.3

5.1 21.1 4.4

5.2 21.1 4.4

5.2 21 4.4

5.2 21 4.5

5.3 21.1 4.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.2 -2.6

3.2 -2

3.2 1.6

3.2 0.2

3.2 -0.1

3.2 0

3.3 0.4

3.3 2.1

3.3 3.3

3.3 2.4

3.3 1.1

3.3 0.5

3.3 0.8

3.4 1.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.4 0

8.4 -0.9

8.4 -0.8

8.4 1.7

8.5 1.3

8.5 1.6

8.5 1.5

8.5 1.2

8.5 0.9

8.6 0.8

8.6 0.4

8.6 0.1

19.2 -0.6

19.3 0.4

19.3 0.3

19.4 0.9

19.5 1.4

19.6 1.9

19.9 3

20.2 4

20.5 5.4

21 6.8

21.3 7.5

21.7 7.9

22.1 7.7

22.5 7.2

30 2.6

30 1.3

30 0.5

30.2 0.8

30.4 1.3

30.5 1.4

30.6 1.4

30.7 1.1

30.8 1.2

31 1.7

31.1 1.4

31.1 1.3

31.2 1.4

18.7 7.6

18.7 4.5

18.9 3.5

19 3.7

19.1 2.4

19.2 2.4

19.2 1.7

19.2 0.8

19.1 -0.2

19.1 -0.7

19 -0.8

19 -0.9

18.9 -0.8

6.3 0.1

6.3 1.1

6.3 2.2

6.3 0.6

6.4 0.5

6.4 0.4

6.4 0.3

6.4 0.5

6.4 0.4

6.4 0

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.8 -5.2

6.7 -3.2

6.6 -1.5

6.6 -0.2

6.6 -2.7

6.5 -2.8

6.4 -3

6.4 -3.2

6.3 -3.3

6.3 -3.1

6.2 -3

6.2 -2.9

6.1 -2.8

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

21.7 -1.7

21.5 -2.3

21.4 -1.7

21.3 -1.5

21.2 -1.9

21.2 -1.3

21.2 -0.8

21.3 -0.3

21.3 0.2

21.3 0.5

21.4 0.6

21.4 0.7

21.4 0.6

21.5 0.6

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

13512

13545

13557

13593

13629

13681

13737

13846

13957

14076

14212

14350

14485

14637

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

453.5 0.7

454.5 0.8

455.7 0.9

456.8 0.9

458 1

459.1 1

460.5 1

461.9 1.1

463.4 1.2

465 1.3

466.7 1.4

468.5 1.4

470.2 1.5

471.9 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

211.5 0

211.3 -0.7

211.1 -1

211.3 -0.1

211.5 0

211.9 0.3

212.2 0.6

212.5 0.6

212.8 0.6

213.2 0.6

213.3 0.5

213.5 0.5

213.9 0.5

214.3 0.5

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

9.9

9.8

9.7

9.6

9.4

9.2

8.9

8.7

8.5

8.2

1210 1234 -24

1167 1124 42

1089 1037 52

1031 959 72

982 881 101

1018 874 144

1158 968 190

1340 1093 247

1497 1220 277

1637 1366 271

1752 1485 267

1896 1642 254

2067 1819 249

2183 1928 256

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T a l l a h a ss e e Profiles The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla counties. It is located between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State University and Florida A&M University. Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 367,413 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Gadsden County population estimate of 46,389 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Jefferson County population estimate of 14,761 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Leon County population estimate of 275,487 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Wakulla County population estimate of 30,776 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 193,873 in May 2011 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 7.7% as of May 2011, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 15,011 unemployed people for the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • State Government (all departments) – 46,800 employees • Florida State University – 8,784 employees • Tallahassee Memorial Healthcare – 3,480 employees • Florida A&M University – 3,468 employees • City of Tallahassee – 2,633 employees • Federal Government (all departments) – 2,100 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 2,000 employees • Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – 1,900 employees • Leon County – 1,522 employees • Tallahassee Community College – 1,090 employees Source: Tallahassee Economic Development Council and Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation (CES) 76

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

O u t l oo k S umm a r i e s The Tallahassee MSA is expected to show minimal growth in the economic indicators relative to other metro areas in the state. The area should see personal income growth averaging 3.5 percent each year. Per capita income levels should average 30.5. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.8 percent. The average annual wage level will be 43.0. Population growth will be at 1.3 percent, and the Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 13,080.55(Mill). Employment growth is expected to be 0.5 percent each year, the lowest in the studied areas. The unemployment rate will average 8.0 percent, one of the lowest of the twelve MSAs. Professional and Business Services will be the fastest growing sector in Tallahassee, averaging 2.7 percent annually. The Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Services sector follows with a growth rate of 2.1 percent. The Financial, State and Local Government and Federal Government sectors are expected to decline with average annual growth rates of -0.5 percent, -1.3 and -4.4 percent respectively.

M e t r o N e ws S umm a r i e s Big game big boost to local economy • The Florida State University football team, ranked number five in the nation, is hosting the number one team, Oklahoma. 35,000 people are estimated to stay in Tallahassee on Saturday. • FSU professor of service management said that Leon County can possibly expect $10 million extra in spending for the week of the game. • Spending will include hotels, motels, groceries, nightlife entertainment, and transportation costs. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, September 14, 2011

T a l l a h a ss e e

County approves 2012 budget • Leon County commissioners approved the 2012 budget of $235 million. • Property tax rates were the big debate, but the commissioners finally settled on keeping the property tax rates unchanged. • Some citizens of Leon County believe the commissioners should consider spending cuts now in order to prevent a worse deficit in the future. Among the ideas from citizens were to cut fire administration expenses or end the garbage disposal contract with waste management. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, August 20, 2011 Old Capitol’s Dome gets its shine back with $600,000 face-lift • The dome of Florida’s capital was built over a century ago, and is now falling apart and leaking.

• Zimride is an online network that allows students to carpool with each other while going to certain destinations. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, September 11, 2011 Grant allows airport runway work to begin • The Federal Aviation Administration granted Tallahassee’s Regional Airport a $12.8 million grant for runway renovations. • The work on the runway is expected to employ around 160 people, which will hopefully boost the local economy slightly. • The runways will be extended from 6,000 to 7,000 feet, and the pavement will be completely renovated. Because the grant is covering most of the construction costs, Tallahassee will hopefully feel the effects of the stimulus. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, September 22, 2011

• With a $600,000 renovation, the dome is supposed to be completed within six months and look brand new. • 73,000 people visited the old capitol last fiscal year. They are hoping that with the new renovation, more visitors will be attracted. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, September 6, 2011 FSU provides lots of options for transportation around campus • Florida State University has added three new ways of getting around the campus; Valet parking, Zipcar, and Zimride. FSU has had buses and shuttles around campus and around Tallahassee for many years, but they have now begun to implement new modes of transportation. • Zipcar is a car-sharing network where you become a member for $25 a year and pay $6 an hour each time you want to rent the car. The cost covers insurance and gasoline costs.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T a l l a h a ss e e Tallahassee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

8.0% 4.0%

14000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

11000.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL Unemployment Rate Tallahassee Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

175.0 170.0 165.0 160.0

2.5

Tallahassee Real Gross Metro Product

10000.0

Tallahassee Payroll Employment

155.0

12000.0

6.0%

180.0

1.5

13000.0

10.0%

2.0%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Tallahassee Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Gross Metro Product

Tallahassee Real Personal Income 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Personal Income

T a l l a h a ss e e

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

October 2011

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

10.6 7.8 6.2 4.3

11.2 6.3 6.6 4.7

11.8 5.5 6.9 5

12.2 3.1 7 5.3

12.2 -0.3 6.8 5.4

12.4 2.2 6.9 5.6

12.9 3.6 7 5.9

13.2 2.5 7.1 6.1

13.6 3.1 7.4 6.2

14.3 4.9 7.8 6.5

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

10.6 4.7

10.9 3.5

11.2 2.7

11.2 -0.2

11.2 -0.5

11.2 0.4

11.3 1.3

11.5 1.1

11.6 1.3

11.9 2.5

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

30.6 30.6

31.9 31.1

33.1 31.4

33.7 31

33.3 30.5

33.8 30.4

34.6 30.5

35.1 30.4

35.7 30.4

36.8 30.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago

36.2 2.5

37.2 2.8

38.5 3.6

39.3 2

39.6 0.8

40.3 1.6

41.2 2.3

42.3 2.7

43.6 3

44.9 3.1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

171.8 2.8

176 2.4

178 1.1

176.3 -0.9

171.4 -2.8

169.4 -1.2

168.8 -0.3

167.9 -0.5

169.8 1.1

172.8 1.8

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.2 0.8

4.5 4.9

4.6 2.8

4.3 -7.1

3.8 -9.4

3.7 -3.8

3.7 0.3

3.7 0.8

3.8 2.6

4 3.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

167.5 2.8

171.5 2.4

173.4 1.1

172.1 -0.8

167.6 -2.6

165.7 -1.1

165.1 -0.4

164.2 -0.6

165.9 1.1

168.8 1.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

9.4 12.4

9.8 4.8

9.5 -3

8.6 -9.7

7 -18

6.5 -8.3

6.4 -1.4

5.9 -6.9

6.1 2.3

6.9 13

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

25.4 3.4

25.6 0.9

25.3 -1.2

24.2 -4.5

22.6 -6.6

22.4 -0.9

23.3 3.9

23.7 2.1

24.2 1.9

24.3 0.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.6 19.3 2.5

3.7 19.4 2.4

3.8 19.2 2.4

3.6 18.5 2.1

3.4 17.4 1.8

3.3 17.2 1.8

3.3 18 1.9

3.3 18.4 1.9

3.4 18.7 2

3.5 18.7 2.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.7 2.1

3.5 -5.2

3.6 2.9

3.6 0.4

3.4 -6

3.1 -9.3

3 -2.9

3 0

3.1 2.5

3.1 1.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8 4.8

8.3 4.4

8.2 -1.9

7.9 -3

7.5 -5.8

7.2 -3.7

6.9 -3.5

7 0.4

7 0.9

7 0.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

18.2 5.9

19.1 5.1

18.9 -1.2

19.1 1.3

18.5 -3.6

18.1 -2.1

17.6 -2.8

17.7 0.6

18.6 5

20 7.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

17.2 2.6

17.8 3.3

18.5 3.8

19.2 4

19.5 1.5

19.7 1.1

20.1 1.7

20.3 1.1

20.5 1.2

20.8 1.4

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

15.6 8.3

16.2 3.3

16.8 3.7

16.5 -1.5

16.2 -1.6

15.8 -2.5

16.5 4.6

17 3

17.1 0.3

16.9 -0.9

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8 -0.6

8.5 5.8

9 5.9

9.7 8.8

9.9 2.1

9.9 -0.2

10 0.8

10 0.1

10.1 0.5

1.9 0

1.9 -1.7

1.9 0

2 3.9

2 1.3

2.1 5.8

1.9 -10.5

1.9 -1.8

1.8 -2.7

1.8 -2.5

60.2 -0.5

60.9 1.2

61.8 1.6

61.2 -1

60.9 -0.4

60.9 -0.1

59.5 -2.4

57.7 -3

57.6 -0.2

57.9 0.6

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

12151.8

12523.6

13008.8

12888.8

12698.6

12825.2

12830.7

12851

13095.5

13545

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

345.2 1.6

351.5 1.8

357.7 1.8

362 1.2

365.6 1

368.6 0.8

372.2 1

376.7 1.2

381.9 1.4

387.8 1.6

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

178 2.9

182 2.3

186.3 2.4

190.9 2.5

192.7 1

193.2 0.2

193.9 0.4

192.4 -0.8

192.7 0.2

193.5 0.4

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.2

2.7

3.1

4.6

7.2

8.5

8.4

7.9

7.3

3747 2766 981

3105 2535 570

2765 2171 593

1245 961 284

787 654 133

663 600 64

695 570 125

819 630 189

1279 908 372

1912 1342 570

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T a l l a h a ss e e

Quarterly Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

October 2011

2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

12.9 3.1 7 5.9

13 3.1 7 6

13.1 2.3 7.1 6

13.2 1.7 7.1 6.1

13.3 2.9 7.2 6.1

13.4 3 7.2 6.1

13.4 2.8 7.3 6.1

13.6 3.1 7.4 6.2

13.7 3.2 7.5 6.2

13.8 3.4 7.6 6.2

14 4.3 7.7 6.4

14.2 4.7 7.8 6.4

14.4 5.1 7.8 6.5

14.6 5.4 7.9 6.6

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

11.3 0.5

11.4 0.8

11.4 0.6

11.5 0.7

11.5 1.7

11.5 1.5

11.5 1.2

11.6 1.2

11.6 1.4

11.7 1.5

11.8 2.1

11.9 2.4

12 2.7

12 3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

34.6 30.3

34.7 30.4

34.9 30.4

35 30.5

35.1 30.4

35.3 30.4

35.4 30.4

35.6 30.4

35.8 30.4

36 30.4

36.4 30.6

36.7 30.6

37 30.8

37.3 30.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

41.3 1.6

41.6 2.5

41.9 2.6

42.1 2.4

42.5 2.8

42.8 2.9

43.1 2.9

43.4 3.1

43.8 3.1

44.1 3

44.4 3

44.8 3

45.1 3.1

45.4 3.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

167.7 -0.8

167.8 -0.9

167.6 -1.2

167.7 -1.4

168 0.2

168.4 0.4

168.7 0.7

169.4 1

170.1 1.3

170.9 1.5

171.7 1.8

172.4 1.8

173.1 1.8

173.9 1.8

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

3.7 0.7

3.7 -0.2

3.7 -0.4

3.7 -0.2

3.8 1.8

3.8 2.2

3.8 2.7

3.8 2.5

3.9 2.6

3.9 2.7

3.9 2.9

4 3.2

4 3.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

164 -0.8

164.1 -0.9

163.9 -1.2

164 -1.5

164.2 0.1

164.6 0.3

164.9 0.6

165.5 1

166.2 1.2

167 1.5

167.8 1.7

168.5 1.8

169.1 1.7

169.9 1.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

6.3 -3.5

6.2 -5.1

6 -8.1

5.9 -7.6

5.9 -6.7

5.9 -5.3

5.9 -2.5

6 0.5

6.1 4

6.3 7.4

6.5 10.6

6.7 12.6

7 13.9

7.2 14.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

23.5 4.6

23.5 4.7

23.5 2.6

23.7 2.1

23.8 1.6

24 2.1

24.1 2.2

24.1 2

24.3 1.8

24.3 1.4

24.3 1.1

24.3 0.7

24.3 0.3

24.4 0.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.3 18.2 1.9

3.3 18.3 1.9

3.3 18.4 1.9

3.4 18.5 2

3.4 18.6 2

3.4 18.7 2

3.4 18.8 2

3.5 18.7 2.1

3.5 18.8 2.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.9 -1.7

3 -3.4

3 -0.2

3 -0.4

3 0.2

3 0.4

3 0.5

3.1 2.5

3.1 4.1

3.1 3

3.1 1.6

3.1 0.6

3.1 0.7

3.1 1.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.9 -2.5

6.9 -2.1

6.9 -0.6

7 -0.5

7 1.2

7 1.5

7 1.4

7 1.1

7 0.7

7.1 0.6

7 0.2

7.1 0.2

7.1 0

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

17.5 -3.5

17.5 -2.3

17.5 -0.7

17.6 -0.2

17.7 1.4

17.9 1.8

18.1 3.1

18.3 4.3

18.7 5.6

19.1 7.1

19.5 7.8

19.8 8.2

20.2 7.9

20.5 7.4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

20.1 1.5

20.1 1.3

20.1 1.1

20.2 0.5

20.3 1.4

20.4 1.2

20.4 1.3

20.5 1.3

20.5 1

20.6 1.1

20.7 1.6

20.8 1.3

20.8 1.2

20.9 1.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

16.7 6.9

16.8 6

16.9 5

17 2.7

17.1 2.1

17.2 2.3

17.1 1.6

17.1 0.7

17.1 -0.3

17 -0.8

17 -0.9

16.9 -1

16.9 -0.9

9.9 0.5

10 -0.6

10 -0.1

10 -0.9

10 0.8

10 0.6

10.1 0.6

10.1 0.5

10.1 0.4

10.1 0.5

10.1 0.7

10.1 0.6

10.1 0.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.9 -7.2

1.9 -5.6

1.9 -2.9

1.9 0.5

1.9 -2.3

1.8 -2.4

1.8 -2.6

1.8 -2.8

1.8 -2.9

1.8 -2.7

1.8 -2.6

1.8 -2.5

1.8 -2.3

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

58.3 -4.1

58.2 -4.2

58 -4.7

57.7 -4.7

57.5 -1.3

57.5 -1.2

57.4 -0.9

57.5 -0.4

57.6 0.1

57.7 0.4

57.8 0.6

57.9 0.7

57.9 0.5

58 0.5

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

12779

12812

12817

12834

12854

12899

12946

13045

13143

13248

13362

13485

13600

13733

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

372.7 1

373.8 1.1

375 1.2

376 1.2

377.2 1.2

378.5 1.3

379.8 1.3

381.1 1.4

382.5 1.4

384 1.4

385.6 1.5

387.1 1.6

388.6 1.6

390.1 1.6

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

193.5 0.2

193 -0.2

192.6 -0.9

192.6 -1.1

192.3 -0.6

192.2 -0.4

192.3 -0.1

192.6 0

192.8 0.3

193.1 0.5

193.2 0.4

193.3 0.3

193.6 0.4

193.8 0.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%)

8.6

8.5

8.4

8.3

8.1

7.9

7.7

7.6

7.4

7.3

7.1

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

685 590 95

751 601 150

754 614 141

790 624 165

830 636 194

903 647 256

1035 732 304

1208 854 354

1354 964 390

1521 1082 439

1665 1170 495

1829 1287 541

2012 1417 595

2144 1494 650

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

T a mp a – S t . P e t e r sbu r g – C l e a r w a t e r

Profiles The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is comprised of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco and Pinellas counties. Located centrally on the west coast of Florida, this region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge Docks, Ybor City, Bush Gardens, the University of South Florida and the University of Tampa. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Tampa Bay Rays call this region home. Quick Facts:

• MSA population estimate of 2,783,243 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hernando County population estimate of 172,778 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hillsborough County population estimate of 1,229,226 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Pasco County population estimate of 464,697 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Pinellas County population estimate of 916,542 as of April 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 1,298,850 in May 2011 for the entire region (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 10.5% as of May 2011, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 136,902 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Database)

O u t l oo k S umm a r i e s The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to be 4.2 percent on average each year, and the per capita income level will average 34.8 annually. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.6 percent. The average annual wage level will be 48.7. Population growth will average 1.2 percent, and Tampa is forecasted to have the second highest Gross Metro Product in the studied areas, averaging a level of 105,638.65 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to be 1.9 percent annually. The unemployment rate is expected to average 10.3 percent. The fastest growing sector in the Tampa area will be Professional and Business Services, growing 4.5 percent each year. The Construction and Mining sector follows with an average annual growth rate of 2.6 percent. The Federal Government sector will be the only sector that will experience a decline with an annual growth rate of -3.1 percent.

Top Area Employers:

• Hillsborough County School Board – 25,596 employees • Pinellas County School District – 13,905 employees • Hillsborough County Government – 12,246 employees • Pasco County School District – 11,035 employees • University of South Florida – 8,600 employees • Verizon Communications Inc. – 7,850 employees • Tampa International Airport – 7,500 employees • MacDill Air Force Base – 6,734 employees • Tampa General Hospital – 6,020 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 5,714 employees Source: Pinellas County Economic Development, Pasco EDC, Enterprise Florida, Inc., Greater Hernando County Chamber of Commerce, and Hillsborough County CityCounty Planning Commission Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T a mp a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; S t . P e t e r sbu r g â&#x20AC;&#x201C; C l e a r w a t e r Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

Florida & Tampa Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 FL Unemployment Rate Tampa Unemployment Rate

0.4

0.6

1300.0 1250.0 1200.0 1150.0 1100.0 1050.0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Tampa Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

1.2

1.4

Tampa Real Gross Metro Product 115000.0 110000.0 105000.0 100000.0 95000.0 90000.0 85000.0 80000.0 75000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Gross Metro Product

Tampa Real Personal Income

Tampa Payroll Employment (Thousands)

0.8

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Real Personal Income

T a mp a – S t . P e t e r sbu r g – C l e a r w a t e r

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

October 2011

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

91.4 7.7 49.1 42.3

98.5 7.7 52.3 46.2

102.4 4 54.1 48.4

105 2.5 53.7 51.2

103.4 -1.5 51.6 51.8

105.4 2 51.6 53.8

109.8 4.1 53.3 56.5

113.4 3.2 55.4 57.9

117.6 3.7 58.2 59.3

124.1 5.6 61.6 62.6

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

91.4 4.6

95.9 4.9

97.1 1.3

96.3 -0.8

94.7 -1.7

94.9 0.2

96.6 1.8

98.4 1.9

100.2 1.8

103.5 3.3

Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

34.4 34.4

36.4 35.5

37.5 35.6

38.1 35

37.3 34.2

37.8 34

39 34.3

39.8 34.6

40.8 34.8

42.4 35.4

Average Annual Wage (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago

39.9 3.3

41.6 4.3

43 3.5

44.2 2.8

45 1.8

45.7 1.6

46.8 2.2

47.9 2.5

49.3 2.9

50.7 2.9

Personal Income (Billions $)

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1220.3 3.4

1245.4 2.1

1244.3 -0.1

1202.8 -3.3

1132.3 -5.9

1116 -1.4

1127.9 1.1

1144.5 1.5

1168.4 2.1

1201.4 2.8

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

77.6 0.9

78.5 1.2

75.9 -3.4

71.5 -5.8

61.9 -13.4

57.8 -6.7

57.7 -0.1

59 2.2

60.6 2.7

62.3 2.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1142.7 3.5

1166.9 2.1

1168.5 0.1

1131.3 -3.2

1070.4 -5.4

1058.2 -1.1

1070.2 1.1

1085.5 1.4

1107.8 2.1

1139.1 2.8

88.3 11.6

93.9 6.3

87.3 -7

75.9 -13.1

59.6 -21.4

52.4 -12.1

51 -2.8

49.4 -3.1

50.9 3

57.7 13.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

234.4 3.3

236.6 0.9

235 -0.7

227.3 -3.3

210.4 -7.4

207.6 -1.3

210.1 1.2

214.2 2

218.8 2.1

220.9 1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

52.8 149.9 31.7

54 151.9 30.7

54.3 151.7 29

52.9 146.7 27.8

47.7 137.1 25.7

45.6 137.3 24.8

45.8 139.6 24.6

46.8 141.3 25.3

48.1 143.8 26

49.2 144.6 26.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

31.9 -0.6

31.8 -0.2

31.8 -0.1

30.3 -4.8

27.5 -9

25.7 -6.8

24.9 -2.9

25.1 0.9

25.8 2.7

26 0.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

99.5 4.2

102.7 3.2

101.8 -0.9

97.1 -4.6

91.7 -5.6

87.1 -5

88.5 1.7

90.3 1.9

91.4 1.3

92 0.7

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

207 5.5

215.6 4.2

215.6 0

202.3 -6.2

189.8 -6.2

191.4 0.9

195.4 2.1

199.8 2.3

210.3 5.3

227.9 8.4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

156.6 1.6

160.2 2.3

167.4 4.5

171.8 2.6

173.2 0.8

177.5 2.5

177.7 0.1

178.9 0.6

181.4 1.4

184.5 1.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

127.5 3.2

129.7 1.7

130 0.2

126 -3

119.9 -4.9

118.5 -1.2

123.9 4.6

129.3 4.4

130.5 0.9

130.3 -0.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

49.4 0.6

47.1 -4.6

47.8 1.4

47.6 -0.5

43.9 -7.7

42.8 -2.5

43.7 2.1

45 3

45.1 0.2

45.1 0

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

20.8 4.3

21 1.2

21.1 0.5

21.9 3.9

22.7 3.7

23.9 5.2

22.6 -5.3

22.1 -2.1

21.6 -2.5

21.1 -2.3

127.3 0.1

128.1 0.7

130.6 2

131.1 0.4

131.7 0.4

131.2 -0.3

132.3 0.8

131.3 -0.8

132 0.5

133.4 1.1

101255.6 104547.4 105339.1 101909.1

98776.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

99697.2 101290.4 103456.6

106521 111286.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2656 2.3

2701.4 1.7

2730.1 1.1

2751.4 0.8

2771.2 0.7

2791.2 0.7

2815.3 0.9

2845.1 1.1

2882.8 1.3

2926.5 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1248.4 -0.5

1270.6 1.8

1291.2 1.6

1305.7 1.1

1299.1 -0.5

1303 0.3

1300.3 -0.2

1300.7 0

1309.9 0.7

1325.6 1.2

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.9

3.4

4.2

6.5

10.7

12.1

11.1

10.7

10.2

9.2

32808 27577 5231

22987 19477 3510

11590 8530 3060

8907 5266 3641

5794 4053 1741

6606 4493 2114

7636 4724 2913

8697 4929 3768

11644 7626 4018

16720 11880 4839

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T a mp a – S t . P e t e r sbu r g – C l e a r w a t e r

Quarterly Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

October 2011

2011Q3

2011Q4

2012Q1

2012Q2

2012Q3

2012Q4

2013Q1

2013Q2

2013Q3

2013Q4

2014Q1

2014Q2

2014Q3

2014Q4

110.4 4.4 53.7 56.7

111.2 4.4 54.1 57

112 3.6 54.6 57.4

112.8 3.1 55.1 57.7

113.8 3.1 55.7 58.1

114.8 3.3 56.4 58.4

115.7 3.3 57 58.6

116.9 3.6 57.8 59.1

118.1 3.8 58.6 59.5

119.4 4.1 59.4 60

121.4 5 60.3 61.1

123.1 5.3 61.1 62

125 5.8 62 63.1

126.9 6.3 62.9 64.1

Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago

96.8 1.7

97.3 2.1

97.8 1.9

98.3 2

98.6 1.9

99 1.8

99.3 1.6

100 1.7

100.5 1.9

101.1 2.1

102.1 2.8

102.9 2.9

103.9 3.4

105 3.8

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$)

39.2 34.3

39.3 34.4

39.5 34.5

39.7 34.6

39.9 34.6

40.2 34.7

40.3 34.6

40.6 34.7

40.9 34.8

41.2 34.9

41.7 35.1

42.1 35.2

42.6 35.5

43.1 35.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

46.8 1.9

47.1 2.3

47.4 2.4

47.7 2.2

48.1 2.6

48.4 2.7

48.8 2.8

49.1 2.9

49.5 2.9

49.8 2.9

50.2 2.9

50.5 2.9

50.9 2.9

51.3 2.9

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1134.6 1.5

1136.6 2

1138 1.9

1141.6 1.6

1146.6 1.1

1151.7 1.3

1156.8 1.7

1163.8 1.9

1172.1 2.2

1180.9 2.5

1189 2.8

1197.2 2.9

1205.2 2.8

1214.3 2.8

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

58.1 0.3

58.2 1.4

58.3 1.8

58.8 2.6

59.2 1.9

59.6 2.4

60 2.8

60.4 2.7

60.8 2.7

61.2 2.7

61.6 2.7

62.1 2.8

62.6 2.9

63 3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1076.5 1.6

1078.3 2

1079.6 1.9

1082.8 1.5

1087.4 1

1092.1 1.3

1096.8 1.6

1103.4 1.9

1111.3 2.2

1119.8 2.5

1127.4 2.8

1135.1 2.9

1142.7 2.8

1151.3 2.8

51.4 -1.5

50.8 -1.1

49.9 -1.5

49.5 -2.9

49.1 -4.5

49.1 -3.3

49.3 -1.2

50.1 1.3

51.3 4.5

52.9 7.6

54.6 10.8

56.6 12.9

58.6 14.3

61 15.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

210.7 1.1

211.2 2.2

212.2 2.1

213.4 1.3

214.9 2

216.5 2.5

217.4 2.5

218.3 2.3

219.4 2.1

220.1 1.7

220.3 1.3

220.6 1.1

221.1 0.8

221.8 0.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

45.9 140 24.7

46.2 140 24.8

46.4 140.2 25

46.7 140.8 25.2

46.9 141.5 25.4

47.3 142.5 25.6

47.5 143 25.7

47.9 143.6 25.9

48.3 144.2 26.1

48.5 144.6 26.3

48.8 144.4 26.5

49.1 144.4 26.7

49.4 144.5 26.9

49.7 144.9 27

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

24.7 -3.1

24.9 -2.5

25.4 0.6

25.2 1.3

24.9 0.8

25.1 0.8

25.5 0.4

25.9 2.7

26 4.5

25.9 3.3

25.9 1.5

25.9 0.2

26.1 0.2

26.3 1.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

89.4 2.9

89.5 3.8

89.7 3.4

90 1.8

90.5 1.2

90.8 1.5

91.2 1.6

91.3 1.4

91.4 1.1

91.7 1

91.8 0.7

91.9 0.7

92.1 0.7

92.3 0.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

196.6 2.2

198 3.1

197.8 2.9

198.7 2.1

200.6 2

202.1 2.1

204.1 3.2

207.6 4.5

212.3 5.9

217.4 7.5

221.5 8.5

225.8 8.8

230.1 8.4

234.5 7.9

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

176.8 -0.5

177.3 -0.9

177.7 -0.9

178.6 0.6

179.4 1.5

179.8 1.4

180.3 1.5

181.2 1.5

181.7 1.3

182.4 1.4

183.7 1.9

184.5 1.8

184.7 1.7

185.3 1.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

126.6 6.8

127 6.5

128 6.9

129 5.6

129.9 2.5

130.4 2.6

130.7 2.1

130.6 1.3

130.4 0.4

130.4 0

130.4 -0.2

130.3 -0.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

44.9 4.8

45 5.4

45.1 6.2

45 5.6

45 0.3

45.1 0.2

45.1 0.1

45.1 0.2

45.2 0.1

45.1 0.2

45.1 0

45 -0.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

22.5 -4.7

22.5 -1.9

22.3 -3

22.2 -1.1

22.1 -2

21.9 -2.3

21.8 -2.4

21.7 -2.4

21.5 -2.5

21.4 -2.5

21.3 -2.5

21.1 -2.4

21 -2.3

20.9 -2.2

132.8 0.8

132.1 0.5

131.6 -0.4

131.2 -0.9

131.1 -1.2

131.2 -0.6

131.5 -0.1

131.8 0.4

132.1 0.8

132.5 1

132.9 1.1

133.2 1.1

133.6 1.1

134 1.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil)

101940 102394 102768 103186 103641 104232 104895 105946 107051 108192 109358 110621 111878 113290

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2818.8 0.9

2825.6 0.9

2832.9 1

2840.7 1

2849 1.1

2857.8 1.1

2867.3 1.2

2877.3 1.3

2887.8 1.4

2898.7 1.4

2909.8 1.5

2920.6 1.5

2931.9 1.5

2943.7 1.6

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1299.9 -0.2

1299.4 -0.4

1298.9 -0.1

1300 -0.1

1301.1 0.1

1302.6 0.2

1304.9 0.5

1307.8 0.6

1311.2 0.8

1315.7 1

1319.3 1.1

1323.3 1.2

1327.8 1.3

1332.1 1.3

Unemployment Rate (%)

10.9

10.8

10.7

10.6

10.4

10.3

10.1

9.9

9.6

9.3

8.7

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

7282 4634 2649

8279 4775 3504

8060 4757 3303

8605 4802 3803

9008 4967 4041

9115 5191 3924

9576 5873 3703

11153 7138 4015

12278 8229 4050

13569 9265 4304

14805 10214 4591

16065 11353 4711

17443 12580 4863

18565 13373 5192

Florida & Metro Forecast - October 2011

I n dus t r y Loc a t io n Q uo t i e n t

E x p l a n a t io n a n d I n t e r p r e t a t io n This technique compares the local economy to a reference economy; in this case, the local economy is the chosen MSA, and the reference economy is the state of Florida. An Industry Location Quotient (LQ) is calculated to determine if the local economy has a greater share of each industryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s employment than the reference economy. The LQ helps to identify specializations that exist in the local economy. There are only three possible outcomes: 1. An LQ greater than one 2. An LQ equal to one and 3. An LQ less than one. An LQ that is greater than one means that the share of local employment in that particular industry is greater than the reference economy employment share in that same industry. This implies that some of the goods or services produced by that industry are exported for consumption elsewhere. An LQ of one means that local demand is met by the local industry. No goods/services are imported or exported from the local area in that industry. The share of local employment in that industry is equal to the share for that industry in the reference economy. An LQ less than one implies that the industry is not meeting local demand for that good or service, and in order to meet demand, that area must import that good or service. This also means that the share of local employment in that industry is less than the share of employment in that industry for the reference economy.

C a l cu l a t io n An industry location quotient is a calculated ratio of two ratios. LQ = ((Local employment in industry A in year T / Total local employment in year T) / (Reference economy employment in industry A in year T) / (Total reference employment in year T)) For example: Orlando MSA employment for Information is 27,400 Total Orlando MSA nonagricultural employment is 1,104,100 Florida employment for Information is 169,800 Total Florida nonagricultural employment is 8,247,000 LQ = ((27,400 / 1,104,100) / (169,800 / 8,247,000)) = 1.2039 Source: Florida Regional Economic Database, Current Employment Statistics, December 2006

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

In Appeciation

The UCF College of Business Administration would like to thank Alan C. Charron, ‘84, for his generous gift to the Institute for Economic Competitiveness. His support enables the Institute to publish this forecast and will help fund future activities and research. Charron graduated in 1984 with a degree in finance. He is president of Real Property Specialists, Inc., located in Orlando, Florida. Founded in 1992, Real Property Specialists, Inc., is a fullservice brokerage company that has built a reputation of providing highly personalized service while being responsive and flexible to its clients' individual needs. They offer a range of commercial real estate services in the Central Florida area including brokerage, appraisal, development, property management and tenant representation. Real Property Specialists, Inc., has set a new standard of excellence in client service by providing these key advantages over the competition:

Responsiveness. You work directly with a decision

maker who has the flexibility to immediately attend to your needs.

Consistency. We are a unified firm employing team-

members who are committed to the success of our clients. We pride ourselves on our ability to maintain a dedicated, professional staff that is able to build long-term, comfortable and prosperous relationships with our clients.

Accountability. At Real Property Specialists, our client is the real "Boss." We are accountable to no one other than the client. No company policy interferes with our ability to serve the individual needs of each client. Experience. The staff at Real Property Specialists is

highly qualified, with most associates having more than a decade of experience in the industry. Our personal portfolio of shopping centers gives us first-hand knowledge of what is important when leasing, managing or selling a property.

Appraisers • Brokers • Consultants 6700 Conroy-Windermere Road, Suite 230 | Orlando, FL 32835 407.291.9000 | www.realpropertyspecialists.com

Director, Institute for Economic Competitiveness. Ph.D., Pennsylvania State University 1996; M.A., Pennsylvania State University 1994; B.S., Allegheny College 1989.

Sean M. Snaith, Ph.D.

We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness:

Sean Snaith, Ph.D., is the director of the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Competitiveness and a nationally recognized economist in the field of business and economic forecasting. An award-winning forecaster, researcher and professor, Snaith has served as a consultant for governments and multi-national corporations such as Compaq, Dell and IBM. Before joining UCF’s College of Business Administration, he held teaching positions at Pennsylvania State University, American University in Cairo, the University of North Dakota and the University of the Pacific. Snaith is frequently interviewed in national and regional media and is a sought-after speaker. He has been quoted in The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, The New York Times, The Economist and CNNMoney.com and has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business Network and Business News Network, based in Toronto. Known for his engaging presentations, Snaith earned praise from one business editor for having an “uncanny knack for making economics not only understandable but interesting.” Snaith is a member of several national economic forecasting panels, including The Wall Street Journal’s Economic Forecasting Survey, the Associated Press’ Economy Survey, CNNMoney.com’s Survey of Leading Economists, USA Today’s Survey of Top Economists, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, Bloomberg and Reuters. Snaith was named by Bloomberg News as one of the nation’s most accurate forecasters in 2008. In 2007, he was named California’s most accurate forecaster by the Western Blue Chip Consensus Forecast. Snaith holds a B.S. in Economics from Allegheny College and an M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from Pennsylvania State University. For more information Sean Snaith, Director Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida P.O. Box 161400 Orlando, FL 32816 PH: 407.823.1451 FAX: 407.823.1454 E-MAIL: ssnaith@bus.ucf.edu www.iec.ucf.edu

U n i v e r si t y o f C e n t r a l F l o r id a College of Business Administration Institute for Economic Competitiveness P. O . B o x 1 6 1 4 0 0 , O r l a n d o , F l o r i d a 3 2 8 1 6 P H 4 0 7. 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 3

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