Florida and Metro Forecast September 2007 by UCF College of Business

Florida & Metro Forecast 2007-2010

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

Published September 2007

Message From D ea n T h o ma s L . K e o n

A b o ut U n i v e r s it y o f C e n t r al F l o r ida ( U C F ) T h e Un i ve r s i t y o f C e n t r a l Fl o r i d a i s

It is hard for me to believe that summer is over and that fall has arrived. Unlike much of the nation, Florida residents do not usually experience cooler temperatures or the leaves turning, but we can expect some changes. At least in the economy.

a public, multi-campus, metropolitan r e s e a r c h u n i v e r s i t y, d e d i c a t e d t o serving its surrounding communities with their diverse and expanding populations, technological corridors, and international partners. The mission of the university is to offer high-quality undergraduate and graduate education, student development, and continuing education; to conduct research and creative activities; and to provide services that enhance the intellectual, cultural, environmental, and economic development of the metropolitan region, address national and international issues in key areas, establish UCF as a major presence, and contribute to the global c o m m u n i t y.

A b o ut t h e C o lle g e o f B u s i n e s s A dmi n i s t r ati o n The College of Business Administration a d v a n c e s t h e u n i v e r s i t y â&#x20AC;&#x2122;s m i s s i o n

This comprehensive forecast addresses many of the economical issues affecting Florida this quarter, and includes an in-depth look at the largest metro areas within the state. Among the many topics discussed are the unemployment rates, gross state product, and of course, the housing market. Dr. Sean Snaith has put together another outstanding forecast. He has certainly been a tremendous addition to our college. His national and state forecasts continue to bring us national recognition. In fact, he was recently named â&#x20AC;&#x153;Most Accurate Forecaster for California in 2006â&#x20AC;? by the Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast. Thank you for your interest in this publication and for supporting the innovative research that comes from our Institute for Economic Competitiveness in the College of Business Administration at the University of Central Florida.

and goals in providing intellectual leadership through research, teaching, and service. The college is striving to enhance graduate programs, while maintaining the strong undergraduate base. The college delivers research and quality business education programs at the undergraduate, masters, doctoral, and executive levels to citizens of the state of Florida and to select clientele n a t i o n a l l y a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y.

Have a great fall season and I look forward to addressing you again next quarter!

n Thomas L . Keo Sincerely,

Thomas L. Keon Dean

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

F lo r i da F o r eca s t 2007 - 2010 September 2007 Report

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright ÂŠ 2007 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved.

Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Barbie Barontini, Editor Jeff Slanker, Researcher Amanda Silvestri, Researcher Jennifer Reid, Researcher Nathan Goldschlag, Researcher Trina Banerji, Marketing Intern

This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitivenessâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.

TABLE OF CONTENTS Florida Summary................................................. 6-10 Florida Forecast Tables...................................... 12-17

Florida News Summaries....................................... 27 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach.......... 29-33 Gainesville......................................................... 34-38 Jacksonville....................................................... 39-43 Lakeland............................................................ 44-48 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach............... 49-53 Naples-Marco Island......................................... 54-58 Ocala................................................................. 59-63 Orlando-Kissimmee.......................................... 64-68 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville......................... 69-73 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent.............................. 74-78 Tallahassee........................................................ 79-83 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater.................... 84-88 Industry Location Quotient..................................... 89 Definitions.............................................................. 90

Tab l e o f c o n t e n t s

Florida Forecast Charts...................................... 19-26

F l o r i d a Summa r y

C o n u n d r um : T h e Seque l ? In the summer of 2005, well into the Fed’s campaign to raise short-term interest rates, long-term interest rates were holding constant and, in some periods, were actually falling. This unusual pairing of events caused the yield curve to invert (short-term bonds had interest rates higher than long-term bonds) and led then Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan to call the situation a “conundrum.” The inverted yield curve raised a red flag for many economists. Each of the previous six recessions had been preceded by an inversion of the yield curve, and the fear that recession number seven was on its way began to spread. We wrote about the reasons why the yield curve had inverted and why the most recent occurrence had less to do with recession and more to do with foreign purchases of U.S. government bonds (see U.S. Forecast, October 2006, Inverted Yield Curve or Introverted Yield Curve?, p. 4-5). The Fed surprised most analysts and forecasters on September 18, when it cut its target rate for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points from 5.25% to 4.75%. This represents the first rate cut since 2003 and indicates that the Fed is concerned that the financial fallout from the sub-prime mortgage meltdown, coupled with a cooling housing sector, could cause the economy to slip into recession. There are also a large numbers of ARMs (Adjustable Rate Mortgages) still scheduled to reset at the end of 2007 and through 2008. The FOMC, perhaps fearing that this resetting of ARMs might turn a wave of foreclosures

into a tsunami that could wash the entire economy into recession, made this preemptive strike. But the question must be asked: Could the Fed’s decision actually make the situation worse? The stock market cheered the rate cut, but bond markets were not quite so cheery. While short-term interest rates fell by the end of the week, long-term interest rates from the U.S. Treasury three-year bond through the 30-year bond yields were higher than they were prior to the Fed’s cut in the federal funds rate. Does the Fed have a new conundrum on its hands? Will this rate cut (and perhaps one or two more by year’s end) ultimately result in long-term interest rates rising instead of falling? Is the response of longterm interest rates as puzzling today as was during Greenspan’s original conundrum in 2005? The recent behavior of long-term bonds is less complicated and comes down to one thing: inflation or, more specifically, expectations about inflation. The bond markets’ reaction to the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates indicated that, as a result of the Fed’s actions, expectations were that future inflation would rise. An increase in expected inflation will cause nominal interest rates to increase one for one with the increase in expected inflation. This relationship between expected inflation and nominal interest rates is known as the Fisher Effect. While inflation has remained relatively contained for the better part of two decades, most measures of inflationary expectations (survey data or the spread between inflation-indexed government bonds and their non-indexed counterparts) currently

Table 1. Updated U.S. Forecast Reflecting the Federal Reserve Bank Cut in Interest Rates - September 18, 2007 2007Q3

2007Q4

2008Q1

2008Q2

2008Q3

2008Q4

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

3.0

3.3

1.4

0.9

1.9

2.2

2.7

1.6

Oil - WTI ($ per barrel)

78.1

74.6

71.1

73.5

76.7

72.3

Total Real Consumption

2.4

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

Gross Domestic Product % Chg, Annual Rate

Consumer Price Index % Chg from a year earlier

% Chg, Annual Rate

Florida & Metro Forecast

F l o r i d a Summa r y

indicate that expectations still remain tethered. The jump in bond yields after the Fed decision to cut the federal funds rate interest rates may indicate that the tether has begun to fray. Could inflation, the bane of market-based economies, the static that clouds the symphony of prices played by supply and demand in markets throughout the economy, actually be making a comeback? Are markets justified in raising expectations about future inflation in response to the stimulative move made at the last FOMC meeting? Oil has remained above $80 a barrel, and other commodity prices (corn, wheat) remain at or near record highs. Unemployment rates remain at levels that must be considered full employment, and this is putting upward pressure on employment costs. In September, the price of a gallon of milk increased from $3.29 to $3.87, and since January, the price has increased by 17.63% through the first three quarters of the year. There are a lot of indications that inflation has already began to sprout; whether this sprout will take root and flourish or wither away remains yet to be seen. What I do know is that this new conundrum is not as confusing as Greenspan’s nor is it as benign. Let’s just keep our fingers crossed that Bernanke et al are proficient in solving puzzles and that they have made the right move for the U.S. economy. A recession is bad, but stagflation is worse. Hopefully, we will not have to experience either anytime soon. How has the outlook for the U.S. economy changed in the wake of the Fed’s recent action (and in anticipation of perhaps at least one more 25 basis point cut before the year’s end)? It will not be a magic cure for what ails the economy, nor will it suddenly turn all of the bad sub-prime loans made at the end of the housing boom into high-quality assets, but it will raise growth slightly in the near term and will push inflation upward. The risks to the forecast have increased as well. Table 1 summarizes some of our current thoughts as to how the economy may fare through 2008. We have revised GDP growth upward by just onetenth of a percentage point in the near term, but upward by more than two-tenths by the second half of 2008. Monetary stimuli to the economy work with a lag that is usually several quarters in length and can

be quite variable over time. We also feel that inflation will begin to creep upward and remain outside of the assumed comfort zone of the Fed, which was 1%-2% in the Greenspan era. It may be the case that we all have to get comfortable. Uncertainty in the economy has been growing, and as each new piece of data is released, we will continue to monitor and reassess our forecasts both for the U.S. economy and for Florida and its metropolitan statistical areas as well.

T h e H o u s i n g M a r ke t i n F l o r i d a : F ee l i n g t h e Yeee o w ! F ac t o r I played college basketball back in my undergraduate days <insert peach basket joke here>. The Gators I played for (not those Gators) were from a school that was on a trimester system; the college had a sixweek break between the first and second trimester stretching from before Thanksgiving until after the New Year. During this break, the basketball team had to remain in town to experience the joys of two-a-day practices and getting ready for the upcoming season. Since the college was shut down during the break, the dormitories were off limits, and the team was housed at a local hotel. I cannot write about much of what transpired in that hotel, but we did take advantage of the whirlpool and heated swimming pool. My teammates and I would soak aching muscles in the hot tub, enjoying the 104-degree water, and then emerge somewhat lightheaded from the hot tub and jump into the heated swimming pool adjacent to the Jacuzzi. The 85-degree temperature of the swimming pool came as quite a shock as we entered the water, prompting loud screams (to the chagrin of other guests I am sure) of “Yeeeow!” (The scream was not unlike the infamous howl of former Democratic Presidential hopeful Howard Dean). This ritual became known as the “yeeeow factor” and we looked forward to it all day as we ran countless wind sprints and other drills during practice. The water of the heated swimming pool felt shockingly cold as we jumped into it, despite actually being more than 10 degrees above room temperature and rather warm. The shock, of course, was due to the Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a Summa r y

relative difference in temperature between the two; had we entered the swimming pool first, the jolt would have been significantly diminished. I think some of what we are going through in the housing market is a real-estate version of the “yeeeow factor.” After coming out of several years of very hot housing markets moving into a relatively slower period (houses are, in fact, still selling, and prices have not imploded, more on that in a moment) feels shocking by comparison because of the stark difference in these markets. Feelings are not facts, and looking at the latest report on existing home and condo sales for Florida, things are not as horrific as some might lead you to believe. The August 2007 sales report for existing singlefamily homes and condos shows a decline in median prices for both since August 2006. Not a big surprise. In markets like housing when there is a surplus, the “invisible hand” exerts downward pressure on price. How far have they fallen? 30%, 40%, perhaps more? It is, after all, a bursting bubble, right? Median prices for existing single-family homes fell 6% from August 2006 to August 2007, and existing condo prices fell 3% over the same period. Will prices fall further? Yes. How much further? It is tough to say exactly; turning points in any economic cycle are notoriously difficult to predict. We think that another 4%-9% is possible, assuming that the economy is able to continue to grow over the next year and a half. When the economy gets pulled out from under the housing market (as is the case in Detroit due to problems with the U.S. automotive industry), that’s when things can get really ugly. Sales have fallen more dramatically, in the 26%-28% range, year over year for both condos and single-family homes—a significant slowing to be sure. Is it tough to be a seller right now? You bet it is. Is it as tough as it was to be a buyer two years ago? Maybe—call it market karma, I guess. When a true speculative bubble bursts, the asset’s price doesn’t fall 6% or 15% from its peak; it falls all the way back to its pre-bubble values (see NASDAQ after the dot com bubble burst). Will the same happen in housing? If you are waiting until this occurs to buy, you will spend the rest of your life as a renter.

Florida & Metro Forecast

S h o r t - Ru n Hig h l ig h t s o f t h e F l o r i d a F o r eca s t 2007-2010 • Payroll employment forecast to grow at 1.7 % in 2007 with growth accelerating to 2.1% in 2008 and 2.8% in 2009-2010. • High-growth sectors will include Professional and Business Services, Transportation, Warehousing and Utility, Education and Health Services, and Leisure. • The housing sector will continue to cool, with housing starts hitting their nadir in 2008 with starts slightly below 2007 levels. Total starts begin to rise in 2009 and 2010. In 2010, housing starts will return to roughly 1998 levels. • The housing soufflé continues to cool. Prices remain under pressure due to large inventories, but the fundamental drivers of housing demand remain largely in place and are preventing a more precipitous drop. • Construction employment will shrink in 2007 and 2008 but will rebound in 2009 and be one of the top four sectors for job creation by 2010. • Gross State Product to grow at an average annual growth rate of 5.9% from 2007 to 2010. • Unemployment to rise slowly to 3.9% in 2008 and fall to 3.8% in 2009 and 3.7% in 2010; these forecasted unemployment rates are all at least 0.5% lower than forecasts for the national unemployment rate. • Personal income growth accelerating from 6.2% in 2007 to an average growth of 6.9% in 20092010.

F l o r i d a Summa r y

Ou t l o o k f o r F l o r i d a 2007-2010 Is Governor Cristâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Ou t l o o k f o r F l o r i d a I r r a t i o n a l l y E x ube r a n t ? G r o s s S t a t e P r o d uc t

The Florida economy will continue to see growth over our forecast horizon. After enduring a substantial deceleration caused by the slowing housing sector and the financial repercussions of the sub-prime meltdown and credit crunch, the economy will begin to accelerate slowly in 2008. Aggregate output of the state, nominal Gross State Product (GSP), the statelevel analogue to Gross Domestic Product, expanded at a torrid pace of 7.1% in 2006. After decelerating to a 5.2% growth rate in 2007, GSP will grow at an average rate of 6.1% during 2008-2010. During this period, growth will be the strongest in 2009 at 6.5%. This predicted level of growth is well above our forecasted rate of growth in nominal GDP growth rate forecast for the national economy during the same time period (an average annual growth of 5.15% during 2008-210). Nominal Gross State Product is expected to surpass $844 billion in 2009 and will approach the $900-billion mark the following year. Real Gross State Product, Gross State Product adjusted for changes in the price level, should see growth of just 2.8% in 2007, the slowest expansion of real output since 2002. Pulled down this year by a rise in prices and a slowing economy, growth in real output will pick up steam in 2008 with growth of 3.6%. Growth will accelerate in 2009 and 2010, and real GSP will grow an average 4.2% percent over the final two years of our forecast horizon. P e r s o n a l I n c o me , Re t ai l Sa l e s , a n d A u t o Sa l e s

Personal income growth will decelerate through 2007 and remain at approximately the same level in 2008 with growth averaging 6.3%. Growth will strengthen in 2009 and ease slightly in 2010 with growth rates of 7.1% and 6.7%, respectively. Real

disposable income is expected to grow an average of 4.7% per year from 2008 through 2010 after another surge in energy prices and the housing slowdown pull down growth in 2007 to 3.8%. In 2009 and 2010, receding price inflation and a resurgent economy will once again power real disposable income growth of 5.0% and 4.7%, well above the 4.2% average growth rate of the last 10 years. Energy prices will continue to be a drain on consumerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s pocket books. This year, prices have oscillated between $2 and $3, sometimes covering nearly that full range in just a matter of weeks. Thankfully, it has been a very uneventful hurricane season to date (letâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s keep our fingers crossed), but another Katrina-type event would likely be enough to push a teetering economy over the brink of recession. The trend in energy prices has been both upward in level and in volatility as well; this has been paired with the housing slowdown and has worked to erode consumer confidence and spending to some extent. This will lead to the slowest growth in retail spending since 2001, with growth of just 3.84%. The slowdown in spending growth will be short-lived with consumers spending more freely again in 2008-2010 during which annual average growth will be 5.4%. Retail spending will exceed $300 billion in 2009 and approach $318 billion the following year. After multiple episodes of gasoline prices at or near the $3-per-gallon level, consumers continued to shy away from, but not shun completely by any measure, purchases of trucks and SUVs. Vehicle fuel efficiency, rather than the size, has once again become an important characteristic of vehicle purchases for consumers. Foreign manufacturers of fuel-efficient (hybrid and gasoline) vehicles have enjoyed a rising market share at the expense of American firms, who still continue to struggle. U.S. automakers are responding, but it is difficult to be nimble in this industry, and changing from the formerly lucrative focus on SUVs and pick-up trucks will take time to engineer. An easing of energy prices is forecasted, but large declines in energy prices are not in the cards. Auto dealers will still have to offer incentives and low or no interest financing to get consumers to purchase vehicles over the next year and a half. After two years of declines, we are forecasting vehicle registrations to begin to grow again in 2008. Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a Summa r y

E mp l o y me n t

Payroll employment growth in the state is expected to grow by 1.7% in 2007; this figure is compared to national job growth of 1.4% for the same year. For the next three years of our forecast horizon, employment growth should continue to outpace that of the nation overall (1.4% U.S. average payroll employment growth 2008-2010) and will average 2.5% in Florida. The growth rate will accelerate from 2007 through 2009, and new jobs will be created at an annual rate of 2.9% in 2009 before growth eases back to 2.6% in 2010. The Construction sector, which had experienced blistering double-digit growth during the housing boom, will continue to show the effects of the significant cooling in the housing market. Housing starts have fallen by nearly 50% and are expected to languish through 2008. The excess inventory currently for sale has caused builders to jerk back violently on the reins, and the consequence has been a loss of jobs in the construction sector. Cumulative job losses could approach 25,000 by the end of 2008 after which a recovery is expected to take hold. Growth will accelerate into 2010 and hit 3.2% in that year. The overall level of employment in 2010 will finally exceed the previous peak employment level reached in 2006. The Professional and Business Services sector continues to show robust growth in Florida as well as nationally. 2007 growth is expected to finish at 2.4%, and we are forecasting this growth to accelerate along with the overall economy to 5.2% in 2008 before rising to average 7.0% growth per year during the final two years of our forecast horizon. The Transportation, Warehousing, and Utility sector should also see growth accelerate in 2008 and 2009, with growth rising to 3.3% and 3.5% in these years before further accelerating to 3.7% in 2010. This surge in growth follows a slowing of growth in 2007 to 0.4%. The Transportation, Warehousing, and Utility sector growth has been hampered by volatile energy prices in the past couple of years that resulted in employment growth dropping from 3.8% in 2005 to a forecast growth of 0.4% for 2007. As energy prices settle in the future and the housing hangover fades, this sector will resume its upward trend further buoyed by ongoing growth in international trade as well.

Florida & Metro Forecast

Manufacturing will continue to contract in Florida and throughout the nation as well. Between 2007 and 2009, an additional 9,000 jobs will be lost. These losses will increase the number of manufacturing jobs lost from 1999 to 2009 to 77,400 jobs. Two factors continue to drive the fall in manufacturing employment: increasing pressure from emerging economies and increased productivity of labor. The hemorrhaging of jobs from this sector will have slowed to a trickle by 2009 and we are predicting small but positive job growth to return to this sector in 2010. U n emp l o y me n t

Unemployment rates in the state averaged 3.3% in 2006 and will continue to rise gradually to near 4.0% in 2008. Unemployment rates in the state will continue to remain well below unemployment rates at the national level, which are expected to average 4.5% from 2008 to 2010. Job losses in a few sectors will put upward pressure on unemployment rates, but growth in the remaining sectors should be able to absorb much of this excess labor.

Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 1998

1999

2000

2001

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch) U.S. (%Ch) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch) U.S. (%Ch) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch)

402.5 8.2 7.3 419.3 7.2 10.4 367.0 6.8 5.8 417.2 6.6 435.6 5.0

423.8 5.3 5.1 434.3 3.6 8.6 380.0 3.5 3.0 442.6 6.1 453.3 4.1

457.5 8.0 8.0 457.5 5.3 8.6 398.4 4.8 4.8 471.3 6.5 471.3 4.0

478.6 4.6 3.5 468.8 2.5 6.6 410.5 3.0 1.9 497.4 5.5 484.9 2.9

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

2.7 2.2 4.5 4.5

2.3 1.8 4.0 4.2

2.3 2.1 3.8 4.0

F l o r i d a F OR E C A ST

2002

2003

2004

September 2007 495.5 3.5 1.8 478.5 2.1 0.7 428.4 4.4 3.1 522.7 5.1 497.3 2.6

2005

Personal Income and GSP 514.4 565.0 604.1 3.8 9.8 6.9 3.2 6.1 5.9 487.1 521.3 541.8 1.8 7.0 3.9 3.2 11.8 7.4 442.4 470.7 483.2 3.3 6.4 2.7 2.2 3.6 1.7 559.0 607.2 666.6 6.9 8.6 9.8 520.4 548.1 585.1 4.6 5.3 6.7

Employment and Labor Force (Household Su 0.7 0.5 1.9 3.1 4.0 1.6 1.6 1.5 2.5 3.1 4.7 5.7 5.3 4.7 3.8 4.7 5.8 6.0 5.5 5.1

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey %

Population (thous) (%Ch) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch)

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

(%Ch)

2.6 3.4 -0.2 4.1 -0.8 -0.4 -1.1 4.3 3.6 3.3 5.1 8.2 2.5 2.0 8.0 0.0 1.5

2.4 2.9 -6.8 3.5 -0.8 -2.3 -0.1 1.5 1.0 2.7 2.7 9.4 0.8 1.9 8.5 0.1 1.3

2.2 3.7 -1.8 5.7 -0.1 -2.6 1.2 1.8 3.4 3.2 2.5 7.3 2.8 2.4 5.2 3.8 3.7

0.0 1.3 -7.8 3.6 -4.9 -6.4 -4.1 -0.9 -0.2 -0.4 1.4 2.8 3.1 1.8 0.3 -2.4 2.9

-1.1 0.1 -10.3 1.2 -6.0 -3.7 -7.2 -2.8 -0.2 -1.2 1.2 0.2 2.8 0.4 -5.6 0.4 1.7

-0.3 1.1 -1.2 4.2 -4.4 -3.4 -4.9 -3.2 0.5 -0.2 2.3 1.3 3.8 1.9 -3.6 3.4 1.1

1.1 3.4 0.2 10.2 0.2 -2.1 1.5 1.6 3.4 2.7 3.8 5.1 3.0 4.6 -2.0 0.4 1.4

t ab l e s

Total nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. & Business Services Edu. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

1.7 4.0 -0.8 12.3 1.2 -1.8 2.7 3.8 4.1 4.2 5.0 6.3 2.5 2.8 0.2 1.6 1.4

Population and Migration 15,518.6 15,798.1 16,089.4 16,396.5 16,717.5 17,034.6 17,417.1 17,802.9 1 2.2 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.9 62.3 63.0 63.2 69.5 69.0 74.5 86.0 76.5 -10.7 1.6 0.4 10.3 -0.4 9.3 17.3 -10.9

150.6 108.5 42.1

163.4 112.3 51.1

158.4 110.9 47.5

168.0 124.7 43.3

183.1 133.9 49.2

1.3

1.2

3.3

3.1

1.5

208.3 158.9 49.4

Housing 238.7 182.5 56.2

272.8 211.6 61.2

Consumer Prices 2.9 2.8 4.7

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch) U.S. (%Ch) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch) U.S. (%Ch) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch)

402.5 8.2 7.3 419.3 7.2 10.4 367.0 6.8 5.8 417.2 6.6 435.6 5.0

423.8 5.3 5.1 434.3 3.6 8.6 380.0 3.5 3.0 442.6 6.1 453.3 4.1

457.5 8.0 8.0 457.5 5.3 8.6 398.4 4.8 4.8 471.3 6.5 471.3 4.0

478.6 4.6 3.5 468.8 2.5 6.6 410.5 3.0 1.9 497.4 5.5 484.9 2.9

495.5 3.5 1.8 478.5 2.1 0.7 428.4 4.4 3.1 522.7 5.1 497.3 2.6

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

2.7 2.2 4.5 4.5

2.3 1.8 4.0 4.2

2.3 2.1 3.8 4.0

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

647.2 7.1 6.6 565.0 4.3 5.2 499.4 3.4 3.1 713.5 7.1 609.9 4.3

687.5 6.2 6.4 586.2 3.8 2.9 516.2 3.4 3.4 750.7 5.2 627.0 2.8

731.0 6.3 5.2 610.9 4.2 6.4 538.8 4.4 3.3 793.1 5.7 649.5 3.6

782.6 7.1 5.7 641.6 5.0 7.3 566.6 5.2 3.7 844.4 6.5 677.5 4.3

834.9 6.7 5.5 672.0 4.7 6.5 591.8 4.5 3.3 896.7 6.2 705.0 4.1

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) 0.7 0.5 1.9 3.1 4.0 3.8 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.5 2.5 3.1 3.2 2.5 4.7 5.7 5.3 4.7 3.8 3.3 3.6 4.7 5.8 6.0 5.5 5.1 4.6 4.6

1.7 2.0 3.9 4.7

2.0 1.9 3.8 4.4

1.9 1.8 3.7 4.2

1.2 2.1 0.9 -2.2 -1.8 -1.5 -2.0 3.3 2.2 2.5 1.4 5.2 2.2 2.8 -0.1 1.0 1.7

1.6 2.9 -0.1 1.6 -0.4 -1.6 0.1 3.5 2.3 2.5 2.7 7.9 2.2 1.4 0.9 0.6 1.9

1.4 2.6 -1.7 3.2 0.2 -0.9 0.7 3.7 2.5 1.3 2.3 6.2 1.4 1.6 1.3 3.4 1.6

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. & Business Services Edu. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.