Florida and Metro Forecast September 2008 by UCF College of Business

Florida & Metro Forecast 2008-2011

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

Published September 2008

Message From D ea n T h o ma s L . K e o n

A b o ut U n i v e r s it y o f C e n t r al F l o r ida ( U C F ) T h e Un i ve r s i t y o f C e n t r a l Fl o r i d a i s

Wow! A lot has happened since the last Florida forecast came out. Just ask anyone involved with Lehman Brothers, AIG, Wachovia Bank or Merrill Lynch for starters. It is impossible to turn on any news station and not be inundated with updates on the proposed bailout plan.

a public, multi-campus, metropolitan r e s e a r c h u n i v e r s i t y, d e d i c a t e d t o serving its surrounding communities with their diverse and expanding populations, technological corridors, and international partners. The mission of the university is to offer high-quality undergraduate and graduate education, student development, and continuing education; to conduct research and creative activities; and to provide services that enhance the intellectual, cultural, environmental, and economic development of the metropolitan region, address national and international issues in key areas, establish UCF as a major presence, and contribute to the global c o m m u n i t y.

A b o ut t h e C o lle g e o f B u s i n e s s A dmi n i s t r ati o n The College of Business Administration a d v a n c e s t h e u n i v e r s i t y ’s m i s s i o n and goals in providing intellectual leadership through research, teaching, and service. The college is striving to enhance graduate programs, while maintaining the strong undergraduate base. The college delivers research and quality business education programs at the undergraduate, masters, doctoral, and executive levels to citizens of the state of Florida and to select clientele n a t i o n a l l y a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y.

Florida has certainly been affected by all this economic turmoil. As you will read in this forecast, it appears that in some instances, things could get worse before they get better, particularly with the housing market. But…not all the news is bad. Many areas should start improving by 2011, we just have to be patient! The upcoming presidential election will certainly have an influence on Florida’s economy. In fact, this is the last time I will write a dean’s message while President George W. Bush is in office. The next time you receive this forecast, we will know who his successor is. Whether it’s John McCain or Barack Obama, one thing is for sure. He has his work cut out for him concerning the economy! Florida will play a crucial role in the election, and the outcome could impact us tremendously. The important message here is that no matter which candidate you support, be sure to vote. This presidential campaign is critical and your vote can make a difference!

n o e K . L s a m o h T Sincerely,

Thomas L. Keon Dean

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

F lo r i da F o r eca s t 2008 - 2011 September 2008 Report

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright ÂŠ 2008 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved.

Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Barbie Barontini, Editor Elaine Vogt, Administrative Assistant Amanda Silvestri, Researcher Erin Garlow, Researcher Laura Burkstrand, Researcher Ana Restrepo, Marketing Intern

This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitivenessâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.

TABLE OF CONTENTS Florida Summary................................................. 6-10 Florida Forecast Tables...................................... 12-17

Florida News Summaries....................................... 27 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach.......... 29-33 Gainesville......................................................... 34-38 Jacksonville....................................................... 39-43 Lakeland............................................................ 44-48 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach............... 49-53 Naples-Marco Island......................................... 54-58 Ocala................................................................. 59-63 Orlando-Kissimmee.......................................... 64-68 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville......................... 69-73 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent.............................. 74-78 Tallahassee........................................................ 79-83 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater.................... 84-88 Industry Location Quotient..................................... 89

Tab l e o f c o n t e n t s

Florida Forecast Charts...................................... 19-26

F l o r i d a Summa r y

C a t eg o r y 5 S t o r m o n W a l l S t r ee t T h r ea t e n s F l o r i d a ’ s E c o n o m y wi t h a Deepe r a n d L o n ge r S l o w d o w n F i n a n c i a l C h e m ot h e r a p y Off e r s H o pe o f a C u r e The credit crunch that has caused financial markets to go into widespread, though not complete, paralysis looms as ominously for Florida’s economy as any cyclone that has ever graced the Weather Channel. While the latter is an act of God, the former is an act of man (and woman) and can be at least partially ameliorated. The U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve Bank’s approach to the financial crisis to date has been addressing the problems on a case-by-case or symptomatic basis as opposed to addressing the underlying cause. This is the equivalent of treating a patient afflicted by cancer by surgically removing tumors when and as they appear. Another approach is to address the systemic source of the cancerous tumors, thereby preventing them from spreading and eliminating the need to address the problem in the future. This approach of using chemotherapy to kill the underlying source of the tumors offers the hope of a cure, while excising tumor by tumor cannot offer the same hope. Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, and AIG were financial tumors that policy makers excised on a case-by-case basis, but now they have taken aim at the underlying source of these tumors, which threatened further malignancies on the financial sector. The source of the problem is, of course, the mortgage-backed securities that haunt many financial institutions’ balance sheets and undermine the confidence in those institutions holding them as well as the confidence in the whole U.S. financial system.

T h e s e F i n a n c i a l U g ly D u c k l i n g s W i l l E m e rg e a s Swa n s a n d Ta x Pay e r s W i l l Reap the Benefits The proposed “bailout” will allow the Treasury to buy mortgage-backed assets from financial institutions that in the current market have very little value but over time will have a substantially higher worth. The current system requires financial institutions to mark to market, that is, to value their holdings at current market prices. This rule is what makes holding these mortgage-backed securities such a carcinogen. The government, of course, does not have such accounting rules and can hold them regardless of what the current market valuation might be. This is important because the long-term value of these securities is far higher than the current fear-ridden market’s valuation. Tax payers are likely to realize a profit from these purchases, and at the minimum the cost of the Troubled Asset Repurchase Program (TARP) will be far less than the initial $700 billion or whatever the final figure of the buyback turns out to be. The cancer that is afflicting financial markets requires strong and decisive action, not exactly the U.S. Congress’ forte. Some action must and will be taken, and one of the potential risks is that the magnitude of the repurchase might not be sufficient to absorb enough of the bad mortgage-backed debt that is currently on the books of troubled financial institutions. There is roughly $12.1 trillion of residential mortgage debt outstanding. Thus, the proposed buyout of $700 billion is equal to about 5.8% of outstanding mortgage debt in the U.S. economy. The national foreclosure rate is 4.8%. So, at first blush this amount “seems” appropriate. This is, however, one case where a “shock and awe” approach is definitely warranted. We will not be able to muster a financial surge as we did a troop surge in Iraq if this buyout is insufficient to unfreeze credit markets. This is why it is crucial that we get it right the first time.

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

F l o r i d a Summa r y

F lo r i d a’ s E c o n o m y: T h e U lt i m at e H a n d y m a n ’ s S pe c i a l

economy to struggle. This process will not take years to unfold, but it will be several more quarters before this process has fully played itself out.

One day I will sit down to write one of our quarterly forecast publications and not focus on the housing market. That day has not yet arrived and is not likely to make an appearance until 2010 or later. Until then, housing will be the nucleus of these forecasts, and as far as the economy is concerned, it is a heavy element that is weighing down growth and delaying Florida’s economic recovery. Unfortunately, the half-life of this particular element is measured in terms of quarters and years, whereas the half-lives of heavy elements that lie at the crossroads of chemistry and physics are measured in fractions of second.

We are likely at or closing in on the nadir of housing starts. Builders have slashed activity, and there has been a recent uptick in sales of existing homes in Florida. August data from the Florida Association of Realtors show that the sale of existing homes has exceeded its 12-month moving average for the fifth month in a row (see Figure 1 below).

F i g u r e 1, H o u s i n g R e c ov e ry o r D e a d C at B o u n c e ? Both of these developments will help shrink the excessive inventory of housing for sale and help slow the decline in house prices that are hurting the economy as a whole. The final piece in the housing recovery puzzle will be the passing of the credit crunch.

The housing boom and bust are well documented and better understood as time gives us both perspective and reveals additional details of the credit crisis as it unfolds. The collapse of the residential real-estate market in Florida sent the economy spiraling downward as payroll job losses hit the economy in August 2007 and have remained a part of the economic landscape ever since. Until the housing market can recover, we expect Florida’s

While the free wheeling days of “liar loans” and underwriting standards that required borrowers to have both a pulse and a pen to fill out the application before

Florida FIGURE 1 Single Family, Existing Homes Florida Single Family, Existing Homes 30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

n Ja

8 -0

7 -0

6 -0

5 -0

4 -0

3 -0

2 -0

1 -0

0 -0

9 -9

8 -9

7 -9

6 -9

5 -9

4 -9

Realtor Sales

n Ja

Data Source: Florida Association of Realtors

Moving Average

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a Summa r y

getting a mortgage are over, this credit crunch and financial crisis will pass (as did all of those that preceded it). When it starts to ease, this will expand the pool of buyers significantly. I have heard on numerous occasions from realtors who have buyers but are unable to get them into a loan. Once this pent-up demand is released, we should begin to see a rapid stabilization of prices and an end to the home price/home equity downward spiral that has been causing such economic pain.

H i g h l i g h t s o f t h e F lo r i d a Forecast 2008-2011 • Florida’s job losses to continue through 2008. Easing of the credit crisis will allow job growth to resume in mid-2009. Worsening of the situation will delay recovery until 2010. • Payroll employment forecasted to shrink by 0.5% in 2008; after meager growth of 0.5% in 2007, growth slowly accelerates in 2009 before finally resuming a Florida-like pace averaging 2.0% over 2010-2011 • High-growth sectors during 2008-2011 are forecasted to include Professional and Business Services (4.0%), Education and Health Services (2.9%), Trade, Transportation and Utilities (1.8%), and Leisure and Hospitality (1.4%). • Florida’s housing construction sector bottoms out in 2008. Housing starts will climb at a very slow pace. In 2011, housing starts will have fully recovered but at levels that will be more than 120,000 lower than the peak level reached in 2005. • The still-large inventory of houses and tight credit will conspire to cause further declines in prices in most parts of Florida through 2008 and into the middle of 2009. • The Construction sector continues to shed jobs in 2008 at a double-digit pace, but job losses slow in 2009 to -4.1%, and this sector will add jobs in 2010 for the first time since 2006. 8

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

• Real Gross State Product (GSP) growth was near zero in 2007 and will be slightly higher in 2008 at 0.6% while slowly accelerating to just 1.7% in 2009, 2.4% in 2010 and 3.1% in 2011. • Unemployment rates rise toward 7.0% through the first half of 2009, before declining to 6.3% in 2011. • Personal income growth decelerates to 4.2% in 2008; income growth accelerates to 4.9% in 2009 and is expected to hit 5.4% in 2011. • After jumping in the 2nd quarter of 2008, thanks to tax rebate checks, real retail sales growth will contract for the next three quarters. Over the 2010-2011 time frame, real retail sales will grow at an average pace of 5.9%.

O u t lo o k f o r F lo r i d a 2008-2011 G ro s s S tat e P ro d u c t The Florida economy has been like an idling engine in desperate need of a tune-up or perhaps even more extensive repairs. Sputtering and stalling over the last seven quarters, the remainder of 2008 offers no promise of a turn around, and the outlook for 2009 has grown more uncertain with each passing day. Built upon the shifting sands of the U.S. economy, the third quarter forecast for Florida is presented below, with the old forecasting adage echoing loudly in the background: “If you must forecast, forecast often.” Real Gross State Product (GSP) growth, the statelevel analogue to real Gross Domestic Product, hovered slightly above zero for 2007 and will struggle to do the same for 2008. 2009 and 2010 offer the promise of slightly better growth rates, expected to be 1.7% and 2.4%, respectively. While this is an improvement over 2007-2008, this is lower than the post-recession years’ (2001-2002) growth rates for real GSP. In 2011, real GSP growth exceeds the 3.0% level and at 3.1% will be the highest growth rate Florida has experienced in five years.

F l o r i d a Summa r y

Nominal Gross State Product is expected to reach nearly $863 billion by 2011, as Florida continues closing in on becoming a trillion-dollar economy, a threshold we have now pushed back until 2014.

had a high profit margin and was padding bottom lines in Detroit. After the initial shock of paying three bucks a gallon wore off, the economy seemed to accept it and move on. This grudging acceptance was not the fate that awaited $4-per-gallon gasoline.

Pe r s o n a l I n c o m e , R e ta i l S a l e s , a n d Au to S a l e s

As gas approached and then exceeded $4-per-gallon, consumers began to turn away from gas-guzzling pickup trucks and SUVs in huge numbers. The U.S. auto manufacturers were stuck with a fleet of vehicles that virtually no one wanted to purchase. Hybrids and fuel efficient gas engine models were now the consumer’s preference and seemingly the only vehicles that were moving off of dealers’ lots. U.S. auto manufacturers asked for, and were granted, government loans to retool their factories to meet the new market realities.

Personal income growth, both real and nominal, continues a deceleration that began in 2005 and will continue into 2009. The weak U.S. economy and faltering financial markets will cut into virtually all components of personal income. Real personal income is expected to grow at an average of just 2.9% from 2008 through 2011, well down from the average growth rate of the preceding four years when real personal income growth averaged 5.1%. Real disposable income growth will continue to be battered by the faltering economy and volatile price inflation, and 2009 will mark the third straight year of weak growth. Florida consumers have been and will continue to be battered from rising unemployment rates, rising foreclosures, and a general feeling of malaise that has afflicted the core of our state’s economy. Record highs for energy and commodity prices have come and passed, and the one bright spot in an otherwise dismal economic portrait has been falling energy prices. The bursting of the commodities bubble eases some of the pain that higher food and fuel costs were inflicting upon consumers, but they have made an impact that still resonates throughout the economy and whose effects will still be evident years from now. This summer, gasoline prices eclipsed the $4-pergallon mark, and although they have declined from their highs with prices currently averaging less than $3.60 per gallon, the memory of those high prices still lingers. Looking at the futures markets for gasoline, that price will continue to decline and likely fall below the $3-pergallon threshold by the end of the year. When gas prices first crossed the $3-per-gallon levels in the wake of hurricane Katrina, there was a shock factor to the economy that stymied consumer spending and left many drivers of SUVs and other fuel inefficient vehicles grumbling. This was a blow to American auto manufacturers that cut right into a market segment that

The credit crisis has only worsened the problem faced by the automotive sector, and we have seen some large dealerships in Florida close their doors, leaving both consumers and employees to pick up the pieces. Automotive sales will continue to falter in the next 4 to 6 quarters and then show only modest growth for the rest of the forecast horizon. The temporary boost to retail spending brought about by the tax rebate checks from the U.S. Treasury will seem like a distant memory as the gravity of the economic situation continues to weigh upon the consumer’s shoulders. The percent change versus a year ago of real retail sales has shown a decline in each quarter since the third quarter of 2007. This trend is not expected to stop until mid to late 2009. This year’s holiday shopping season will be an extremely challenging one for retailers, likely the most challenging one in nearly a decade. We are now forecasting retail spending to remain essentially flat, to decline slightly for the rest of the year and throughout 2009. The general slowing of the economy will conspire to bring new passenger car and truck registrations down for a third straight year in 2008. After three years of declines, we are forecasting new vehicle registrations to grow slightly again in 2009, but total registrations will be nearly 50% less than levels reached in 2004. In 2010 and 2011, a stronger economy and the aging fleet of U.S.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a Summa r y

vehicles will combine to drive new vehicle registration growth higher but at levels that are less than those reached back in 1998.

E m p loy m e n t Payroll employment growth in the state is expected to shrink by 0.5% for 2008; this figure is compared to the expected national job growth of 0.4% for the same year. Over the next three years of our forecast horizon, employment growth should continue to outpace that of the nation overall (1.4% U.S. average payroll employment growth, 2009-2011) and will average 1.9% in Florida. Job losses have been the norm for the Florida monthly payroll reports since August of 2007, and this is a trend that will continue through the rest of 2008 and likely into 2009 before job losses begin to slow to a stop. Job growth will build slightly later in 2009 after hovering around zero. The Construction sector, which flourished during the housing boom, will continue to show the painful effects of the slump in the housing market. Housing starts have fallen spectacularly and are expected to decline further, and the bottom is expected to be hit at the end of 2008, which may still be several quarters away as credit market woes compound the misery. Cumulative job losses in the sector will reach nearly 150,000 by the end of 2009, after which a deliberate, wary recovery in homebuilding is expected to begin. Job growth will not return to this sector until 2010 when growth is expected to be a respectable 2.7% in that year and then 3.0% in the following year. The overall level of employment in 2010 will be 120,000 jobs fewer than at the peak of the housing boom. The Professional and Business Services sector is a sector that, once the economy gets past the recession, will resume robust growth in Florida. 2008 job growth will be negative, with job losses throughout the year. Growth is expected to come back to the sector in 2009, and we are forecasting this growth to accelerate as the economy heats back up. Job growth in this sector will lead the state through 2011 averaging 5.4% during 2009-2011. The Transportation, Warehousing, and Utility sector should also see solid growth in 2010, with growth rising from 1.4% in 2009 to 3.1% in both 2010 and 2011. This growth comes after contracting 0.3% in 2008 as energy prices and a struggling economy impact shipping 10

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

and overall economic activity. The Transportation, Warehousing, and Utility sector growth has been besieged by record energy prices the past couple of years. As energy prices subside and as the economy experiences a rebound from the housing bust, this sector will enjoy a boost. Looking beyond the end of our forecast horizon of 2011, this sector will be further buoyed by the continued growth in international trade and the congestion at sea ports in the western U.S. This will stoke growth at Florida’s ports, a phenomenon that will be further enhanced by the expanded capacity of the Panama Canal. Manufacturing will continue to contract in Florida and throughout the nation as well. Between 2007 and 2011, an additional 35,300 jobs will be lost. The two factors that continue to drive the fall in manufacturing employment are continuing competition from emerging economies and increasing productivity of labor. The weak dollar that has helped U.S.-manufactured goods to gain some competitiveness overseas in the midst of this sector’s contraction has begun a path of appreciation that, over time, will erode this currency boost. The loss of jobs from this sector will have slowed in 2009, and we are predicting that job losses will slow dramatically in this sector in 2010, as employment remains nearly flat at 2009 levels. We are expecting to see job growth in this sector for the full year in 2011 and this will be for the first time since 2006.

U n e m p loy m e n t Unemployment rates in the state averaged less than 4.0% in 2005 and 2006 and dropped as low as 3.3%, putting Florida’s unemployment rate more than a full percentage point below the historically low U.S. unemployment rate. This was driven by the white-hot housing sector, and as housing has turned deep space cold, the gap between Florida’s and the U.S. unemployment levels narrowed until Florida’s unemployment rate exceeded the national rate. We expect the Florida economy to more closely track the U.S. economy going forward and that the state’s unemployment rate will remain above the national rate through 2011. We expect that the unemployment level should be bounded by 7.0% on the upside; this may very well be subject to upward revision given the drama still unfolding in credit markets.

Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2000

2001

2002

2003

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch Year ago)

457.5 8.0 8.0 457.5 5.3 8.6 398.2 4.9 4.8 471.3 6.5 471.3 4.0

478.6 4.6 3.5 468.8 2.5 6.6 410.3 3.0 1.9 497.4 5.5 484.9 2.9

495.5 3.5 1.8 478.5 2.1 0.7 428.2 4.4 3.1 522.7 5.1 497.3 2.6

514.4 3.8 3.2 487.1 1.8 3.2 442.1 3.3 2.2 559.0 6.9 520.4 4.6

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

2.3 2.1 3.8 4.0

0.7 1.6 4.7 4.7

F l o r i d a F OR E C A ST

Population (thous.) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous.) (%Ch Year ago)

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous.) Housing Starts Single Family (thous.) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous.)

(%Ch Year ago)

2005

2006

Personal Income and GSP 565.7 617.2 663.1 69 10.0 9.1 7.5 6.1 5.6 7.1 521.8 553.0 578.2 59 7.1 6.0 4.6 11.8 5.9 7.9 471.1 491.4 510.0 52 6.5 4.3 3.8 3.6 1.4 3.5 607.3 670.2 716.5 73 8.6 10.4 6.9 548.6 588.8 609.8 60 5.4 7.3 3.6

Employment and Labor Force (Household Sur 0.5 1.6 3.1 3.9 3.6 1.6 1.2 2.4 3.0 3.1 5.7 5.3 4.7 3.9 3.4 5.8 6.0 5.5 5.1 4.6

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % 2.2 3.7 -1.8 5.4 -0.1 -2.6 1.2 1.8 3.3 3.2 2.5 7.5 2.8 2.4 5.4 3.8 3.7

0.0 1.3 -7.8 3.5 -4.9 -6.4 -4.1 -0.9 -0.2 -0.4 1.4 2.9 3.1 1.8 0.3 -2.4 2.9

-1.1 0.1 -10.3 1.2 -6.0 -3.7 -7.1 -2.9 -0.2 -1.2 1.2 0.2 2.7 0.4 -5.7 0.4 1.7

-0.3 1.1 -1.2 4.0 -4.3 -3.4 -4.8 -3.2 0.5 -0.2 2.3 1.4 3.8 1.9 -3.7 3.4 1.1

1.1 3.4 0.2 9.9 0.2 -2.1 1.4 1.6 3.4 2.7 3.8 5.2 3.0 4.5 -2.1 0.4 1.4

1.7 4.0 -0.8 11.9 1.2 -1.8 2.7 3.8 4.1 4.2 5.0 6.4 2.5 2.8 0.2 1.5 1.4

t ab l e s

Total nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

2004

September 2008

1.8 2.6 -6.5 7.5 0.2 -2.1 1.3 1.5 2.9 2.0 3.2 3.8 2.7 1.5 -0.9 -0.8 2.0

Population and Migration 16,088.3 16,389.3 16,702.2 17,012.3 17,391.7 17,771.2 18,073.5 18,27 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.2 1.7 62.9 67.9 66.6 73.5 85.3 74.1 47.4 3 -0.2 8.2 -1.6 11.8 18.4 -13.0 -38.0 -2

158.1 111.5 46.7

167.6 125.7 41.9

182.7 133.6 49.1

207.7 159.9 47.9

238.8 183.1 55.6

Housing 272.9 204.8 211.6 156.3 61.3 48.5

3.3

3.1

1.5

2.9

2.8

Consumer Prices 4.7 5.0

10 7 2

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

457.5 8.0 8.0 457.5 5.3 8.6 398.2 4.9 4.8 471.3 6.5 471.3 4.0

478.6 4.6 3.5 468.8 2.5 6.6 410.3 3.0 1.9 497.4 5.5 484.9 2.9

495.5 3.5 1.8 478.5 2.1 0.7 428.2 4.4 3.1 522.7 5.1 497.3 2.6

514.4 3.8 3.2 487.1 1.8 3.2 442.1 3.3 2.2 559.0 6.9 520.4 4.6

Personal Income and GSP 565.7 617.2 663.1 699.6 10.0 9.1 7.5 5.5 6.1 5.6 7.1 6.1 521.8 553.0 578.2 594.9 7.1 6.0 4.6 2.9 11.8 5.9 7.9 1.4 471.1 491.4 510.0 522.4 6.5 4.3 3.8 2.4 3.6 1.4 3.5 2.8 607.3 670.2 716.5 734.5 8.6 10.4 6.9 2.5 548.6 588.8 609.8 609.9 5.4 7.3 3.6 0.0

729.2 4.2 4.6 597.8 0.5 3.7 530.9 1.6 1.3 753.8 2.6 613.3 0.6

764.8 4.9 4.5 614.6 2.8 7.0 541.9 2.1 2.3 783.0 3.9 623.8 1.7

804.5 5.2 4.6 639.6 4.1 5.4 563.1 3.9 3.3 820.7 4.8 638.5 2.4

848.0 5.4 4.7 665.6 4.1 4.4 585.3 3.9 3.2 863.6 5.2 658.4 3.1

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

2.3 2.1 3.8 4.0

0.7 1.6 4.7 4.7

-0.3 0.6 6.6 6.3

1.2 1.0 6.5 6.0

1.5 1.3 6.3 5.8

1.5 1.7 2.2 -4.1 -3.6 -2.4 -4.2 1.4 1.1 1.7 1.4 5.5 4.0 1.5 -2.0 0.3 0.8

1.5 2.1 0.3 2.7 -0.4 -2.0 0.4 3.1 2.0 1.6 2.2 4.9 2.5 0.6 0.5 1.7 0.5

1.2 2.0 -2.6 3.0 0.5 -1.3 1.4 3.1 2.0 -0.6 2.2 5.9 1.8 1.2 1.2 -2.1 0.9

Population (thous.) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous.) (%Ch Year ago)

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous.) Housing Starts Single Family (thous.) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous.)

(%Ch Year ago)

2005

2006

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) 0.5 1.6 3.1 3.9 3.6 1.7 -0.6 1.6 1.2 2.4 3.0 3.1 2.3 1.2 5.7 5.3 4.7 3.9 3.4 4.0 5.7 5.8 6.0 5.5 5.1 4.6 4.6 5.7 Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change)

2.2 3.7 -1.8 5.4 -0.1 -2.6 1.2 1.8 3.3 3.2 2.5 7.5 2.8 2.4 5.4 3.8 3.7

0.0 1.3 -7.8 3.5 -4.9 -6.4 -4.1 -0.9 -0.2 -0.4 1.4 2.9 3.1 1.8 0.3 -2.4 2.9

-1.1 0.1 -10.3 1.2 -6.0 -3.7 -7.1 -2.9 -0.2 -1.2 1.2 0.2 2.7 0.4 -5.7 0.4 1.7

-0.3 1.1 -1.2 4.0 -4.3 -3.4 -4.8 -3.2 0.5 -0.2 2.3 1.4 3.8 1.9 -3.7 3.4 1.1

1.1 3.4 0.2 9.9 0.2 -2.1 1.4 1.6 3.4 2.7 3.8 5.2 3.0 4.5 -2.1 0.4 1.4

1.7 4.0 -0.8 11.9 1.2 -1.8 2.7 3.8 4.1 4.2 5.0 6.4 2.5 2.8 0.2 1.5 1.4

1.8 2.6 -6.5 7.5 0.2 -2.1 1.3 1.5 2.9 2.0 3.2 3.8 2.7 1.5 -0.9 -0.8 2.0

1.1 0.5 0.0 -8.3 -4.1 -1.5 -5.3 0.1 1.6 0.5 -0.8 1.3 3.1 2.1 -0.1 0.2 2.6

0.4 -0.5 -3.8 -12.3 -5.7 -4.3 -6.4 -0.3 1.3 -0.7 -1.0 -0.4 3.6 2.1 -2.7 3.5 1.3

Population and Migration 16,088.3 16,389.3 16,702.2 17,012.3 17,391.7 17,771.2 18,073.5 18,276.2 18,464.7 18,625.8 18,835.1 19,097.1 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.2 1.7 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.4 62.9 67.9 66.6 73.5 85.3 74.1 47.4 31.6 26.3 24.2 39.8 50.7 -0.2 8.2 -1.6 11.8 18.4 -13.0 -38.0 -24.0 -16.6 -2.3 67.2 27.9

158.1 111.5 46.7

167.6 125.7 41.9

182.7 133.6 49.1

207.7 159.9 47.9

238.8 183.1 55.6

Housing 272.9 204.8 211.6 156.3 61.3 48.5

101.5 74.7 26.8

69.8 46.9 22.9

87.7 59.6 28.1

114.4 86.8 27.6

151.4 119.9 31.5

3.3

3.1

1.5

2.9

2.8

Consumer Prices 4.7 5.0

4.1

5.1

1.9

1.0

1.3

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4

716.7 4.0 4.4 596.9 0.6 3.2 530.0 1.7 0.7 747.0 3.0 611.9 0.9

728.9 4.9 5.3 601.1 1.6 2.8 542.9 4.5 3.6 746.4 1.9 610.3 0.2

731.6 3.7 4.4 595.7 -0.5 3.9 525.2 -0.1 0.5 756.3 2.3 614.1 0.2

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

0.5 1.6 4.7 4.9

-0.2 1.4 5.3 5.3

-1.2 1.2 6.4 6.3

739.4 4.3 4.2 597.5 0.3 5.1 525.3 0.4 0.4 765.5 3.4 617.1 1.0

749.7 4.6 4.6 603.4 1.1 6.5 532.4 0.4 1.7 771.8 3.3 618.6 1.1

760.1 4.3 4.0 612.5 1.9 7.6 540.4 -0.5 0.3 778.6 4.3 622.9 2.1

Personal Income and GSP 769.9 779.4 788.8 5.2 5.4 5.2 4.8 4.8 4.7 618.5 624.1 629.8 3.8 4.5 4.4 7.3 6.6 6.1 545.4 549.6 553.7 3.8 4.6 4.0 3.4 4.0 3.5 786.1 795.5 805.2 3.9 3.9 4.3 625.1 628.5 631.9 2.2 1.8 1.8

799.2 5.2 4.6 636.4 3.9 5.8 560.0 3.6 3.1 815.8 4.8 636.2 2.1

809.7 5.2 4.6 642.8 3.9 5.1 566.2 3.8 3.2 826.4 5.1 640.9 2.5

820.3 5.3 4.6 649.5 4.1 4.6 572.5 4.2 3.4 835.6 5.0 644.9 2.6

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) -1.6 -1.4 -0.9 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.0 6.0

830.9 5.3 4.6 655.9 4.2 4.3 576.6 4.1 3.3 846.2 5.1 649.8 2.8

842.0 5.3 4.6 662.5 4.1 4.2 582.6 4.0 3.3 857.7 5.1 655.5 3.0

853.6 5.4 4.7 668.8 4.0 4.4 588.2 3.9 3.1 869.7 5.2 661.5 3.2

865.5 5.5 4.7 675.1 3.9 4.6 593.8 3.7 2.9 880.9 5.4 666.7 3.4

1.4 1.2 6.4 5.9

1.4 1.3 6.4 5.9

1.5 1.3 6.3 5.8

1.5 1.4 6.3 5.7

1.6 1.4 6.3 5.7

1.4 1.9 -1.3 2.0 0.3 -1.7 1.3 3.4 2.1 0.4 2.1 4.9 2.0 0.9 0.6 -0.4 0.7

1.3 1.9 -2.2 1.9 0.4 -1.7 1.4 3.4 2.2 -0.1 2.1 5.3 2.0 1.1 0.9 -3.9 0.8

1.2 2.0 -2.7 2.7 0.3 -1.4 1.2 3.2 2.1 -0.7 2.2 5.8 1.7 1.3 1.2 -3.2 0.9

1.2 2.1 -2.8 3.2 0.5 -1.2 1.3 2.8 1.8 -0.8 2.3 6.2 1.7 1.2 1.4 -1.1 0.9

1.2 2.2 -2.5 4.2 0.7 -1.0 1.4 2.8 1.8 -0.8 2.3 6.5 1.6 1.2 1.2 -0.2 1.0

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. & Business Services Edu. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

Population (thous) (%Chg Year Ago) Net Migration (thous) (%Chg Year Ago)

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous.) Housing Starts Single Family (thous.) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous.)

(%Chg Year Ago)

0.5 -0.4 -4.9 -12.1 -5.4 -4.3 -5.9 0.0 1.0 -0.2 -1.0 -0.3 3.4 1.6 -1.0 2.7 2.0

0.2 -0.9 -5.7 -13.4 -6.0 -5.2 -6.4 -0.6 0.9 -1.2 -1.3 -1.5 3.3 1.9 -3.0 3.7 1.6

0.4 -0.5 -2.2 -12.5 -5.6 -4.3 -6.2 0.0 1.6 -0.7 -0.9 -0.6 3.8 2.4 -3.3 4.3 1.0

0.5 -0.2 -2.3 -11.2 -5.9 -3.3 -7.1 -0.4 1.7 -0.7 -0.6 0.7 3.8 2.7 -3.7 3.2 0.7

0.9 0.3 0.2 -9.2 -5.1 -2.5 -6.4 0.3 0.6 -0.1 -0.1 2.7 3.6 2.1 -4.0 0.9 0.8

1.7 1.9 2.5 -5.2 -3.9 -2.4 -4.7 1.3 1.2 2.0 1.4 6.4 4.4 1.7 -2.7 0.0 1.1

1.7 2.2 3.3 -2.1 -3.3 -2.4 -3.8 1.8 1.4 2.3 2.0 7.0 4.3 1.3 -1.3 -0.1 0.7

1.7 2.3 2.7 0.0 -2.1 -2.4 -2.0 2.0 1.3 2.8 2.3 6.1 3.8 0.9 -0.2 0.2 0.5

1.8 2.3 1.9 2.4 -1.3 -2.3 -0.8 2.7 2.0 2.7 2.4 5.3 3.2 0.6 0.4 3.7 0.4

1.6 2.0 1.0 3.4 -0.6 -2.1 0.1 3.0 2.0 1.9 2.3 4.5 2.4 0.4 0.6 2.9 0.5

1.5 2.0 -0.3 3.1 0.1 -1.9 1.0 3.2 2.1 1.3 2.2 4.9 2.1 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.6

Population and Migration 18,400.0 18,445.6 18,487.4 18,525.8 18,562.0 18,601.5 18,645.4 18,694.2 18,747.1 18,803.6 18,863.4 18,926.4 18,992.2 19,060.6 19,131.4 19,204.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 32.1 28.1 24.2 20.7 18.5 21.6 26.0 30.7 34.8 38.3 41.5 44.5 47.2 49.6 51.9 53.9 3.4 -9.7 -24.0 -36.0 -42.4 -23.0 7.7 48.6 87.8 77.0 59.4 44.7 35.8 29.7 25.0 21.1

76.3 50.2 26.1

67.4 45.7 21.7

62.9 43.7 19.1

72.4 47.9 24.5

79.6 50.3 29.3

87.9 57.9 30.0

5.3

4.7

5.3

4.9

3.9

2.2

88.6 61.5 27.1

Housing 94.7 68.7 26.0

102.8 76.4 26.4

110.1 83.2 26.9

118.4 90.3 28.1

126.5 97.4 29.1

136.4 106.8 29.6

148.4 117.8 30.6

157.5 125.4 32.1

163.3 129.5 33.9

Consumer Prices 1.2 0.5 0.4

1.1

1.2

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.6

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 3. Employment Quarterly* 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

8,030.7 7,969.5 7,982.0 8,020.1 8,056.5 8,117.4 8,158.2 8,201.8 8,242.6 8,283.2 8,324.2 8,357.0 8,397.9 8,445.7 8,495.8 8,540.1

Manufacturing

374.9

368.3

363.8

358.7

355.6

353.8

351.7

351.0

350.9

351.5

351.9

352.2

352.4

352.7

353.7

354.5

Durable Goods

253.4

247.9

244.3

239.7

237.2

236.2

235.0

234.9

235.3

236.4

237.3

238.1

238.7

239.2

240.5

241.5

Wood Products

17.3

16.9

16.7

16.4

16.1

15.9

16.0

16.1

16.3

16.5

16.7

16.9

17.0

17.1

17.3

Computer & Electronics

47.5

47.3

46.8

46.3

46.9

46.3

46.1

46.2

46.5

46.9

46.8

46.2

45.7

45.0

44.4

43.9

Transportation Equipment 1,667.1 1,634.8 1,626.9 1,601.6 1,611.6 1,629.4 1,647.1 1,665.0 1,679.6 1,698.1 1,714.6 1,733.4 1,745.3 1,756.6 1,772.3 1,784.0 Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining Construction

121.5

120.4

119.6

119.0

118.4

117.5

116.7

116.1

115.6

115.1

114.6

114.1

113.7

113.4

113.2

113.0

31.2

31.4

31.3

31.1

30.8

30.6

30.4

30.3

30.2

30.1

7,655.9 7,601.2 7,618.2 7,661.4 7,701.0 7,763.6 7,806.5 7,850.8 7,891.7 7,931.7 7,972.3 8,004.8 8,045.6 8,093.0 8,142.2 8,185.6 6.4

6.3

6.4

6.5

6.4

6.3

552.0

525.6

513.5

507.9

501.1

498.1

502.5

508.0

512.9

514.8

518.0

518.2

522.5

528.6

534.8

539.8

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

245.0

244.1

244.8

245.9

245.7

247.3

249.4

250.8

252.5

254.6

257.4

259.3

261.0

262.8

264.7

266.5

Wholesale Trade

360.2

362.0

363.7

362.5

364.6

367.0

368.3

369.6

371.8

374.7

376.1

377.7

379.6

381.6

382.9

1,008.3

997.3

999.6 1,002.8 1,006.9 1,016.8 1,022.7 1,030.6 1,034.0 1,035.9 1,036.0 1,034.3 1,032.6 1,029.0 1,027.2 1,026.0

160.2

157.7

155.9

Retail Trade Information Prof. & Business Services

154.5

153.8

153.5

153.8

154.3

154.5

154.4

154.5

155.2

155.9

156.3

156.6

157.1

1,328.0 1,308.0 1,314.1 1,339.1 1,363.7 1,391.2 1,405.4 1,420.9 1,435.4 1,453.8 1,473.7 1,490.2 1,510.9 1,538.4 1,564.5 1,586.9

Admin. & Support

787.2

772.3

775.7

797.8

820.6

845.4

857.3

870.2

882.2

897.0

913.4

926.2

943.6

967.3

989.9 1,008.9

Prof. Sci & Tech

462.3

457.2

459.9

462.9

464.2

466.6

468.5

470.5

472.5

475.5

478.5

481.7

484.4

487.7

490.7

493.5

78.6

78.5

78.9

79.3

79.7

80.2

80.7

81.2

81.8

82.3

82.9

83.4

83.9

84.4

Financial Activities

539.8

535.3

535.2

537.0

539.3

542.7

545.7

549.5

552.4

555.2

557.6

560.7

563.9

567.3

570.7

573.4

Real Estate & Rent

171.5

170.7

170.4

170.3

170.4

170.7

171.5

172.3

173.1

173.9

174.7

175.5

176.3

177.2

177.9

368.3

364.6

364.8

366.6

369.0

372.3

375.1

378.0

380.2

382.2

383.7

386.1

388.4

391.0

393.6

395.5

Mgmt. of Co.

Fin. & Insurance Edu. & Health Service

1,030.1 1,036.5 1,046.8 1,056.3 1,066.8 1,082.4 1,091.3 1,096.4 1,101.4 1,108.7 1,114.3 1,118.9 1,123.5 1,127.4 1,133.5 1,137.1

Education Services

136.1

137.8

137.0

137.1

137.4

137.7

138.3

138.6

138.7

138.8

138.9

138.8

138.7

Health Services

894.0

898.8

909.8

919.2

929.4

944.7

953.0

958.1

962.8

970.0

975.6

980.0

984.7

988.7

994.9

998.4

940.1

947.6

951.5

956.2

960.0

963.9

964.0

965.0

965.7

967.6

970.2

973.4

976.3

979.7

981.9

985.2

345.3

343.7

344.4

344.3

345.2

346.5

347.0

347.7

348.3

349.7

351.3

352.7

353.5

353.9

354.1

355.1

Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

1,140.4 1,138.8 1,144.1 1,147.4 1,149.6 1,150.2 1,151.1 1,152.7 1,158.4 1,158.7 1,158.1 1,159.2 1,161.4 1,163.6 1,166.1 1,169.3 131.5

132.7

132.8

*Quarterly at an annual rate

132.7

133.1

137.6

136.5

133.6

132.5

132.2

132.3

1,008.9 1,006.1 1,011.2 1,014.6 1,016.9 1,017.6 1,018.4 1,019.6 1,020.9 1,022.2 1,024.4 1,026.7 1,029.1 1,031.4 1,033.9 1,037.1

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 4. Employment Annual 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

7,069.4 7,160.0 7,169.1 7,250.5 7,499.2 7,799.9 8,002.5 8,040.2 8,000.6 8,133.5 8,301.8

8469.9

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm Manufacturing

466.0

443.4

416.7

398.5

399.4

404.1

405.1

388.6

366.4

353.0

351.6

353.3

Durable Goods

310.4

297.8

276.5

263.1

266.9

274.1

277.7

263.1

246.3

235.8

236.8

240.0

Wood Products

16.7

17.2

18.1

17.6

18.2

18.7

18.9

17.9

16.8

16.0

16.6

17.2

Computer & Electronics

69.7

67.2

59.1

52.8

51.9

50.8

49.5

48.5

47.0

46.4

46.6

44.7

Transportation Equipment Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

2,056.6 1,938.7 1,829.8 1,775.1 1,766.7 1,772.3 1,768.9 1,710.7 1,632.6 1,638.3 1,706.4 1,764.6 155.6

145.6

140.2

135.4

132.5

130.1

127.4

125.5

120.1

117.2

114.8

113.3

36.1

34.6

33.5

32.7

31.8

30.6

30.8

31.4

30.9

30.2

6,603.4 6,716.6 6,752.4 6,851.9 7,099.9 7,395.8 7,597.4 7,651.6 7,634.2 7,780.5 7,950.1 8,116.6 8.7

8.0

7.2

7.1

6.6

6.4

6.5

6.3

Construction

453.8

469.6

475.1

494.2

543.0

607.5

652.4

598.4

524.8

502.5

516.0

531.4

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

246.0

243.8

236.8

229.2

232.8

241.8

245.3

245.6

245.0

248.3

255.9

263.7

Wholesale Trade

317.2

316.4

315.7

317.3

328.0

341.4

351.3

356.9

361.5

365.6

373.0

380.4

Retail Trade

936.5

933.0

921.6

919.4

944.7

984.0 1,003.8 1,009.1 1,002.0 1,019.3 1,035.1 1,028.7

Information

182.9

183.4

172.8

166.3

162.9

163.2

Prof. & Business Services

161.7

161.5

157.1

153.9

154.6

156.5

1,079.8 1,110.7 1,112.7 1,128.1 1,187.2 1,263.2 1,311.5 1,327.8 1,322.3 1,395.3 1,463.3 1,550.2

Admin. & Support

659.7

678.3

673.7

680.1

717.0

763.2

789.4

796.0

783.2

848.4

904.7

977.5

Prof. Sci & Tech

357.1

366.5

370.0

378.1

397.2

424.3

444.7

453.0

460.5

467.4

477.1

489.1

63.0

65.8

69.0

69.9

73.1

75.8

77.4

78.8

78.5

79.5

81.5

83.7

Financial Activities

462.9

469.3

474.9

485.6

504.2

529.6

546.4

542.1

536.8

544.3

556.5

568.8

Real Estate & Rent

143.5

147.0

150.2

153.4

162.2

172.4

178.2

173.2

170.7

173.5

176.7

Fin. & Insurance

319.5

322.4

324.7

332.2

342.0

357.3

368.3

368.9

366.1

373.6

383.0

392.1

Edu. & Health Service

819.1

844.2

867.3

899.9

927.1

950.2

975.9 1,006.5 1,042.4 1,084.3 1,110.8 1,130.4

Education Services

91.5

94.5

99.7

108.2

116.9

122.8

126.5

132.8

137.0

137.9

138.7

727.5

749.7

767.6

791.7

810.2

827.5

849.5

873.7

905.4

946.3

972.1

991.7

Mgmt. of Co.

Health Services Leisure & Hospitality

801.2

815.5

818.9

834.5

872.3

896.7

910.2

928.9

948.8

963.2

969.2

980.8

Other Services

293.9

299.4

310.2

317.2

324.3

329.8

332.9

343.2

344.4

346.6

350.5

354.2

Government

1,001.4 1,023.3 1,039.2 1,053.0 1,066.2 1,081.2 1,099.2 1,124.9 1,142.6 1,150.9 1,158.6 1,165.1

Federal Gov't.

125.0

121.7

122.2

126.3

126.8

128.7

127.7

128.0

132.4

132.8

135.1

132.2

State & Local Gov't.

876.4

901.5

916.9

926.8

939.4

952.4

971.5

996.9 1,010.2 1,018.1 1,023.6 1,032.9

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly* 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

716.7

728.9

731.6

739.4

749.7

760.1

769.9

779.4

788.8

799.2

809.7

820.3

830.9

842.0

853.6

865.5

Wages & Salaries

408.0

340.0

339.5

343.3

348.1

352.6

357.7

362.5

367.5

372.4

376.8

381.6

386.2

391.4

396.7

402.4

Other Labor Income

74.3

75.0

74.5

75.1

76.1

76.8

77.8

78.8

79.9

80.9

81.9

82.9

83.8

84.9

86.1

87.3

Nonfarm

39.6

39.9

41.1

42.0

42.8

43.5

44.3

45.0

45.6

46.3

46.9

47.4

47.9

48.6

49.3

49.9

Farm

-0.3

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

Property Income

196.6

198.6

199.0

198.9

200.5

201.8

203.1

204.7

207.0

210.0

213.1

216.6

219.7

222.7

225.6

228.9

Transfer Payments

117.2

126.4

124.0

125.6

129.1

132.3

135.1

137.0

138.9

140.6

142.3

144.2

146.2

147.9

149.8

151.6

Social Insurance

52.6

52.5

52.7

53.7

54.4

55.3

56.1

57.5

58.0

58.7

59.5

60.9

61.6

62.3

63.1

Personal Income

596.9

601.1

595.7

597.5

603.4

612.5

618.5

624.1

629.8

636.4

642.8

649.5

655.9

662.5

668.8

675.1

Wages & Salaries

283.2

280.0

279.6

281.3

283.8

288.3

291.2

294.3

297.3

300.1

303.0

305.8

309.0

312.1

315.2

318.2

Billions 2000 Dollars

Other Labor Income

61.8

61.9

60.6

60.7

61.2

61.9

62.5

63.1

63.8

64.4

65.0

65.6

66.2

66.8

67.5

68.1

Nonfarm

33.0

32.9

33.5

34.0

34.4

35.1

35.6

36.0

36.4

36.9

37.2

37.5

37.8

38.2

38.6

38.9

Farm

-0.2

0.1

0.2

0.3

163.7

163.8

162.1

160.7

161.4

162.6

163.1

164.0

165.3

167.2

169.2

171.5

173.5

175.3

176.8

178.5

Transfer Payments

97.6

104.2

101.0

101.5

103.9

106.6

108.6

109.7

110.9

112.0

113.0

114.2

115.4

116.4

117.3

118.3

Social Insurance

43.8

43.4

42.8

42.6

43.2

43.9

44.4

44.9

45.9

46.2

46.6

47.1

48.1

48.5

48.8

49.2

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations 1127.5

1091.2 1092.7

1116.8

1152.8 1158.1

1199.3

1215.5

Property Income

1079.4

984.0

1022.0

1065.9

Retail Sales (Billions $)

275.1

278.8

280.7

282.0

283.1

283.8

286.9

291.5

295.5

299.2

303.6

307.1

310.4

314.1

319.6

324.4

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

229.1

229.9

228.6

227.9

227.8

228.7

230.4

233.5

235.9

238.2

241.0

243.2

245.1

247.2

250.4

253.0

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

1132.5 1144.5

1160.4 1155.5

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Personal Income

457.5

478.6

495.5

514.4

565.7

617.2

663.1

699.6

729.2

764.8

804.5

848

Wages & Salaries

228.4

239.2

247.1

258.7

279.5

302.7

324.7

335.2

342.7

360.1

379.3

399.6

Billions Current Dollars

Other Labor Income

45.1

47.6

51.8

56.2

61.5

67.0

70.8

72.7

74.7

77.4

81.4

85.6

Nonfarm

29.2

27.6

29.0

30.7

33.8

38.1

40.3

39.8

40.7

43.9

46.6

48.9

0.8

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.5

0.4

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.3

0.4

Farm Property Income

117.9

122.9

122.0

120.1

136.7

155.1

170.7

188.1

198.3

202.5

211.7

224.2

Transfer Payments

67.9

74.4

80.4

85.5

94.6

98.5

104.4

113.1

123.3

133.4

141.5

148.9

Social Insurance

33.3

35.5

37.1

39.1

42.5

46.4

49.8

51.4

52.6

54.9

58.4

62.0

Personal Income

457.5

468.8

478.5

487.1

521.8

553.0

578.2

594.9

597.8

614.6

639.6

665.6

Wages & Salaries

228.4

234.3

238.6

245.0

257.8

271.3

283.2

285.1

281.0

289.4

301.5

313.6

Other Labor Income

45.1

46.6

50.1

53.2

56.7

60.1

61.7

61.8

61.3

62.2

64.7

67.2

Nonfarm

29.2

27.1

28.1

29.1

31.2

34.2

35.1

33.9

33.3

35.3

37.0

38.4

0.8

0.9

0.7

0.4

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.3

117.9

120.4

117.8

113.8

126.0

139.0

148.9

159.9

162.6

162.8

168.3

176.0

Billions 2000 Dollars

Farm Property Income Transfer Payments

67.9

72.8

77.6

80.9

87.2

88.2

91.1

96.2

101.1

107.2

112.5

116.9

Social Insurance

33.3

34.8

35.9

37.0

39.2

41.5

43.4

43.7

43.1

44.1

46.4

48.6

1314.1

1405.1

1302.2

1396.8

1442.5

1449.4

1416.7

1242.2

1053.2

1091.6

1148.2

1181.4

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations Retail Sales (Billions $)

184.5

190.4

196.6

205.7

226.0

247.4

263.8

272.4

279.1

286.3

301.4

317.1

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

184.5

186.5

189.9

194.8

208.5

221.7

230.0

231.7

228.9

230.1

239.6

248.9

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Florida Education & Health Services Employment (Thousands)

September 2008

charts

9 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

F l o r i d a F OR E C A ST

Florida Charts

Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate 7.0%

(%)

6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate

Florida Gross State Product 12%

(% change year ago)

10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 FL Gross State Product

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Florida Charts

Florida Housing Starts (Thousands)

300.0

8.0%

250.0

7.5%

200.0

7.0% 6.5%

150.0

6.0%

100.0 50.0

8.5%

5.5% 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Total Private Housing Starts 30 year Mortgage Rates

5.0%

Florida Personal Income (% change year ago)

12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

Florida Charts

New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations 30%

(% change year ago)

20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Florida Real Gross State Product 10%

(% change year ago)

8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Florida Charts

Florida Employment (Thousands)

9000.0 8500.0 8000.0 7500.0 7000.0 6500.0 6000.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Wage & Salary Employment

Florida Education & Health Services Employment 1150.0 1100.0 1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0 750.0

(Thousands)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

Florida Charts

Florida Federal Government Employment 140.0

(Thousands)

135.0 130.0 125.0 120.0 115.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Florida Financial Activities Employment 580.0 560.0 540.0 520.0 500.0 480.0 460.0 440.0 420.0

(Thousands)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Florida Charts

Florida Information Employment (Thousands)

190.0 180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Florida Manufacturing Employment (Thousands)

480.0 460.0 440.0 420.0 400.0 380.0 360.0 340.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

Florida Charts

Florida Construction Employment 700.0

(Thousands)

650.0 600.0 550.0 500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Florida Professional & Business Services Employment 1600.0

(Thousands)

1400.0 1200.0 1000.0 800.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Florida Charts

Florida State & Local Government Employment (Thousands)

1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment (Thousands)

1700.0 1650.0 1600.0 1550.0 1500.0 1450.0 1400.0 1350.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

F l o r i d a New s Summa r ie s Blue Cross pays $85 million for Florida Health Care Plan • Florida Health Care Plan has been bought by Blue Cross Blue Shield of Florida for a total of $85 million. • This purchase now expands Blue Cross, already the largest insurer in Florida, by 58,000 insurance customers. These Florida Health Care Plan customers will now have more access to healthcare thanks to the deal. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, August 29, 2008

International trade benefits Florida • Florida is a leader in aerospace technology and alternative energy and is one of the 10 highest international regions of trade in the entire U.S. • State-made good exports totaled $38.5 billion, and along with exported professional services, maintained 743,000 jobs. • The benefits of international trade are noticed mostly by small- and medium-sized companies, which make up 93 percent of the businesses selling internationally. Source: Lakeland Ledger, July 29, 2008

FMPA announces long-term energy strategy • The Florida Municipal Power Agency has long term goals of reducing its carbon footprint and finding the lowest cost and most reliable energy source. • To do this, the agency has plans to hike its nuclear energy usage 12 percent by 2020, replace its old natural gas plants, and produce more alternative energy. • The two areas of highest promise for the agency are solar energy and biomass energy. Source: Ocala Star-Banner, August 16, 2008

Study: High-impact businesses drive Florida’s growth • According to the U.S. Small Business Administration, Florida contains about 2 percent of the high-impact businesses across the country, totaling 32,000. • A high-impact business is one that, over a four-year period, doubles its sales. • These businesses are one of the biggest drivers of the revenue increases and employment growth that Florida has been experiencing. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, July 25, 2008

Florida ranks high among public pension funds • The Florida Retirement System Pension Plan Trust Fund, worth $126.9 billion, is the fourth-largest retirement plan in the country. • The fund provides monies to about 900,000 employed and retired persons of state and local government. • With a funded ratio of 105, 24 percent higher than the U.S. average (the higher the better), Florida is well equipped with enough assets to cover retirees in its state. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, August 12, 2008 Publix pays $500 million for Albertsons Florida stores • Publix has paid $500 million for the 49 Albertsons stores located in Florida. • Publix said it has plans to reopen all of the newly renovated stores no later than the beginning of 2010. • In addition to the purchase of Albertsons stores, Publix plans to spend an additional $352 million in the remainder of 2008 on other capital expenditures. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, August 8, 2008

Florida strikes $1.7B deal with Big Sugar • Approximately 300 square miles located in the Everglades may be sold to the state of Florida by U.S. Sugar Corp. with a price tag of $1.7 billion. • The increased competition from imported sugar pushed U.S. Sugar Corp. to sell its land. Florida will be initiating restoration projects that will improve this land in the Everglades that was previously used for agriculture. • The restoration project will cost at least $7.8 billion and may take 30 years to complete, making it the largest in the world. Source: Tampa Tribune, June 24, 2008 Florida citrus crop up • Florida’s orange crop increased 32 percent over last season, reaching 169.7 million boxes. • Due to hurricanes, pesticides, greening and other issues, the Florida orange crop declined 44 percent over the five year period ending in the 2006-2007 citrus season. The increase this year is a positive sign for the industry. • The citrus industry in Florida is a $9.1 billion industry, with over 90,000 employees and 620,000 acres devoted to its production. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, July 11, 2008 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Metros

September 2008

F l o r i d a F OR E C A ST

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B eac h – O r m o n d B eac h

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is comprised only of Volusia County. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway, which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500.

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach metropolitan statistical area is expected to show positive growth in the economic indicators measured in this forecast. Personal income is expected to average 4.9 percent growth, while average annual wage should grow on average 3 percent. The growth rate of housing starts ranks second in the state with an average growth rate of 20.0 percent. Unemployment will be one of the worst in the state, averaging 7.0 percent annually.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 500,413 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 249,691 in January 2008 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 4.9% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 12,252 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Volusia County Schools – 6,816 employees • Halifax Medical Center – 3,136 employees • Volusia County – 2,600 employees • City of Daytona Beach – 1,159 employees • Memorial Hospital – 1,000 employees • Embry Riddle Aeronautical University – 900 employees • Memorial Hospital West Volusia – 853 employees • Sherwood Medical – 850 employees • The Daytona Beach News-Journal – 829 employees • Daytona Beach Community College – 743 employees Source: Southeast Volusia Chamber of Commerce

The Deltona MSA will experience the most growth in the education and health services sector, followed by the professional and business services sector, with growth rates of 2.7 and 1.8, respectively.

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Tourists say they like Daytona, but June visits slump • The number of tourists in the Daytona Beach area has not gone up since this time last year, according to tourism officials. • Tourism dropped about 7.4 percent, based on resort tax-collections statistics released from Volusia County Financial Services. • It is expected that next year’s opening of the Ocean Center will boost tourism. The Center will be the fifth largest convention center in the state. Source: Daytona Beach News-Journal, August 7, 2008 City should transport patients, not EVAC, chief says • According to officials, using the city’s firefighterparamedics instead of the EVAC ambulances would both transport patients faster and save the city 10 percent in costs. • Daytona Beach would need to hire 27 more firefighter-paramedics at a salary of about $35,000 each and add six ambulances. • There is currently a $3.5-million subsidy for EVAC, paid for by Volusia County. Source: Daytona Beach News-Journal, August 7, 2008 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B eac h – O r m o n d B eac h

City OKs contract to develop new business site • Improvements are being planned for the 43.3acre Williamson Business Park, which is currently vacant. • The Briar Co. won the almost $3-million dollar bid to build improvements on the site, which will include roads, a storm-water pond, filling of land, and the installation of water, sewer, reclaimed water, and storm-sewer lines. • A $6,920 contract was also approved by City Council with Kimley-Horn & Associates for a sewage pumping station for the park. Source: Daytona Beach News-Journal, August 7, 2008 Property tax breaks unlikely to aid renters, business owners • In an effort to avoid raising property taxes, the Port Orange City Council has decided to operate with a tighter budget. The proposed budget is set at $33 million, $1.2 million less than the current budget. • The city is dealing with various causes of income reductions, from the voter-approved reduction in property tax collections (5.6 percent drop) to the decline in sales tax revenue due to the slumping economy. • The property tax breaks will not help the burden on commercial or non-homestead property owners or renters. Source: Daytona Beach News-Journal, July 31, 2008

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

State commission OKs utilities’ nuclear power plans • The state Public Service Commission voted in a $17-billion plan by Progress Energy Florida for two nuclear power reactors at a complex in Levy County. • Also approved was a $688-million plan by Florida Power & Light for solar facilities in Brevard, Martin, and DeSoto counties. • These two solar facilities will be built within the next two years. The DeSoto County project will be finished and operating by December 2009. Source: Daytona Beach News-Journal, July 16, 2008

De l t o n a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Da y t o n a B eac h â&#x20AC;&#x201C; O r m o n d B eac h

Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

(percent)

11000.0

1.6

(Millions 2000 $)

9500.0 9000.0 8500.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate

8000.0

(Thousands)

8.0% 6.0%

160.0

4.0%

150.0

2.0%

140.0

0.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Deltona Payroll Employment

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Gross Metro Product

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income

170.0

130.0

1.4

10000.0

Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment 180.0

1.2

10500.0

6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0%

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate 8.0% 7.0%

0.8

-2.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B eac h – O r m o n d B eac h

Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

September 2008 Forecast*

2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago

16.2 3.7 5.9 10.3

16.3 4.2 6 10.3

16.5 4.5 6 10.5

16.8 3.7 6.1 10.6

17 4.9 6.2 10.8

17.2 5.3 6.3 10.9

17.4 5.2 6.4 11

17.6 5.2 6.4 11.2

17.9 5.2 6.5 11.3

18.1 5.4 6.6 11.5

18.3 5.5 6.7 11.7

18.6 5.6 6.8 11.8

18.9 5.6 6.8 12

19.1 5.6 6.9 12.2

13.2 -0.4

13.2 0.2

13.3 1

13.5 1.4

13.6 3.5

13.8 4.3

13.9 4.4

14 3.9

14.2 4

14.3 4.2

14.5 4.4

14.6 4.3

14.8 4.2

14.9 4

32 26

32.2 26

32.6 26.2

33 26.6

33.3 26.8

33.6 26.9

33.9 27.1

34.2 27.3

34.6 27.4

34.9 27.7

35.3 27.8

35.6 28

36 28.2

36.4 28.4

34.6 2.1

34.9 3.6

35.2 3.2

35.5 3.4

35.8 3.3

36 3.2

36.3 3.2

36.6 3.2

36.9 3.1

37.1 3

37.5 3.1

37.7 3.1

38.1 3.2

38.4 3.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

170.2 -1.2

170.4 -1.2

170.6 -0.6

171.6 0.7

172.4 1.3

173.2 1.6

174.1 2

174.8 1.9

175.7 1.9

176.3 1.8

177 1.7

177.9 1.8

178.8 1.8

179.5 1.8

9.9 -3.5

9.7 -4.9

9.6 -3.6

9.6 -2.9

9.6 -1.7

9.6 -0.9

9.6 -0.2

9.6 0.5

9.6 0.8

9.7 0.7

9.7 0.9

9.7 1

160.3 -1.1

160.7 -1

161 -0.3

162 0.9

162.8 1.5

163.6 1.8

164.5 2.2

165.2 2

166.1 2

166.6 1.9

167.3 1.7

168.2 1.8

169.1 1.8

169.8 1.9

12.1 -8.1

11.9 -7.8

11.7 -8.5

11.6 -5.8

11.8 -2.6

11.9 -0.1

12 2.6

12.1 3.6

12.1 3.1

12.1 2

12.2 1.8

12.4 2.7

12.5 3.3

12.7 4.3

32.7 -2.5

32.5 -2.7

32.4 -2.4

32.5 -1.3

32.7 0.1

33 1.3

33.1 2.3

33.4 2.6

33.5 2.4

33.6 2

33.7 1.8

33.8 1.3

33.8 1

33.9 0.9

5.5 25.1 2.3

5.5 25.3 2.3

5.5 25.4 2.3

5.5 25.7 2.3

5.6 25.9 2.3

5.6 26.1 2.3

5.7 26.2 2.4

5.7 26.3 2.4

5.8 26.3 2.4

5.8 26.2 2.4

5.9 26.2 2.5

5.9 26.1 2.5

6 26.1 2.5

2.8 -6.5

2.8 -6.9

2.8 -1.8

2.8 0.6

2.9 1.6

2.9 2.1

2.9 2.3

2.9 1.9

2.9 2.1

2.9 2.3

3 2.4

3 2.5

3 2.3

7.8 -2.1

7.8 -2.3

7.9 -2.6

7.9 0.4

7.9 1.6

8 2.1

8 2.3

8.1 2.4

8.1 2.3

8.2 2.3

8.2 2.4

8.3 2.5

8.3 2.6

8.4 2.4

18.4 -5.3

18.7 -2.9

18.8 0.2

19.1 3.1

19.3 4.7

19.4 4.1

19.5 3.7

19.7 3.3

19.9 3.4

20.1 3.5

20.3 4

20.6 4.4

20.9 4.7

21.1 4.9

30.9 3

31.1 2.6

31.5 2.9

31.9 4.5

32.2 4.2

32.3 3.8

32.5 3.3

32.7 2.5

32.9 2.2

33 2.1

33.1 1.9

33.2 1.5

33.4 1.5

33.5 1.5

22.6 1.9

22.7 1.4

22.8 2.1

22.8 1.2

22.8 0.8

22.8 0.3

22.8 0

22.9 0.2

22.9 0.6

23 0.8

23.1 1.2

23.2 1.5

23.3 1.6

23.4 1.7

8.3 0.6

8.2 -0.4

8.3 -0.3

8.3 0.6

8.3 0.5

8.3 0.7

8.3 0.6

8.3 0.7

8.4 1

8.4 1.2

8.4 1

8.4 0.7

8.5 0.6

1.3 -4

1.3 -2.9

1.3 -2.1

1.3 -1.3

1.4 2

1.4 5.9

1.6 26.4

1.4 3.1

1.5 7.4

1.5 3.3

1.4 -16

1.4 -0.7

1.4 -8

1.4 -7.6

23.4 1

23.5 0.9

23.6 1.8

23.6 0.7

23.6 0.5

23.7 0.4

23.7 0.6

23.8 0.8

23.9 0.9

23.9 1

24 1

24.1 1.2

9977.2

10021.2

10034

10108.8

10150.2

10208.6

10274.3

10336

10419.6

10483.2

10554.3

10648.9

10744.7

10824.8

505.8 0.8

506.6 0.8

507.3 0.7

508.3 0.7

509.6 0.7

511.1 0.9

512.7 1.1

514.7 1.3

516.6 1.4

518.6 1.5

520.2 1.5

522 1.4

523.7 1.4

525.5 1.3

253.1 1.4

253.5 0.7

254 1.1

254.6 0.8

255.2 0.8

255.9 0.9

256.7 1.1

257.6 1.2

258.6 1.3

259.6 1.4

260.6 1.5

261.6 1.5

262.6 1.5

263.6 1.6

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

7.1

7.2

7.3

7.4

7.3

7.2

7.1

1566 1208 359

1880 1398 481

2054 1476 577

2318 1710 608

2350 1806 544

2536 2009 528

2775 2237 538

2981 2428 553

3200 2620 580

3403 2813 591

3688 3101 588

4039 3443 596

4287 3667 620

4416 3764 652

*Quarterly an an annual rate

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B eac h – O r m o n d B eac h

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

September 2008 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

10.9 5.5 4 6.9

11.4 3.7 4.3 7.1

11.8 4 4.6 7.2

13 9.7 5 8

13.8 6.3 5.3 8.5

14.7 6.6 5.7 9

15.5 5.3 5.8 9.6

16.1 4.2 5.9 10.2

16.9 4.6 6.2 10.7

17.7 5.2 6.5 11.3

18.7 5.6 6.8 11.9

10.7 3.3

11 2.3

11.2 2

12 6.9

12.3 3.3

12.8 3.7

13.2 2.7

13.2 0.5

13.6 2.5

14.1 4.1

14.7 4.2

24.2 23.7

24.7 23.9

25.3 23.9

27.1 25

28.3 25.3

29.6 25.8

30.9 26.3

31.9 26.2

33.1 26.6

34.4 27.4

35.8 28.1

26.7 2.5

27.7 4

28.8 3.8

30 4.2

30.9 2.9

32.5 5.1

33.7 3.7

34.5 2.4

35.6 3.3

36.7 3.1

37.9 3.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

150.3 1.9

153.2 1.9

158 3.1

164.8 4.3

171.3 3.9

174.3 1.8

172.6 -1

170.7 -1.1

171.9 0.7

175.2 1.9

178.3 1.8

10.3 -5.6

9.6 -7.3

9.4 -1.5

9.8 3.9

10.2 4.3

10.6 3.9

10.3 -2.7

9.9 -3.9

9.6 -3.3

9.6 0.1

9.7 0.9

140 2.5

143.6 2.6

148.5 3.5

155 4.4

161 3.9

163.7 1.6

162.3 -0.9

160.8 -0.9

162.3 1

165.6 2

168.6 1.8

8.8 5.8

9.6 9.3

10.5 8.7

11.9 14

13.8 15.7

14.9 7.8

13.5 -9.4

12.3 -8.8

11.8 -4.3

12.1 2.8

12.5 3

31 -1

30.8 -0.6

31.4 1.6

31.9 1.8

33.1 3.7

33.1 0

33.4 1

32.8 -1.8

32.6 -0.6

33.4 2.3

33.8 1.2

4.4 23.9 2.7

4.7 23.6 2.6

4.6 24.3 2.5

4.7 25 2.2

4.8 26 2.3

5 25.9 2.3

5.3 25.8 2.3

5.5 25.3 2.3

5.6 25.8 2.3

5.7 26.2 2.4

5.9 26.1 2.5

3.4 7.4

3 -10.4

2.8 -6.3

2.8 -2.1

2.7 -2.7

2.9 6.8

3 3.5

2.9 -3.3

2.8 -1.7

2.9 2.1

3 2.4

6.6 -3.4

6.4 -2.3

6.5 1.2

6.9 7.2

7.3 5.5

7.9 7.2

8 1.7

7.9 -1.2

7.9 0.4

8.1 2.3

8.3 2.5

15.8 18.1

16.4 3.8

17.4 6.3

19.1 9.8

20.6 7.7

20.4 -0.9

19.3 -5.2

18.6 -3.7

19.2 3

19.8 3.5

20.7 4.5

26.2 1.2

28.2 7.7

30.1 6.7

30.7 1.9

30.5 -0.7

30.5 0.2

30 -1.8

30.8 2.7

32 3.9

32.8 2.5

33.3 1.6

19.4 0.9

19.6 0.8

20 2.2

21.1 5.3

21.7 2.9

21.6 -0.4

22.2 3.1

22.6 1.5

22.8 1.1

22.9 0.4

23.2 1.5

7.1 -0.1

7.6 6.8

7.8 2.9

8.2 4

8.2 0.1

8.3 1.2

8.2 -0.6

8.3 0.4

8.4 0.9

1.3 -10.1

1.4 2.5

1.4 2.4

1.4 0

1.4 1.2

1.4 -0.6

1.3 -4.7

1.3 1.2

1.5 9.8

1.4 -8.4

20.4 2.5

20.6 0.9

20.7 0.5

21.1 2.1

21.8 3.6

22.8 4.4

23.2 1.9

23.3 0.5

23.6 1.2

23.8 0.7

24 1

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

9105

9056.1

9076.8

9362.1

9948.1

10222.8

10146.3

10071.6

10125.4

10378.3

10693.2

452.2 1.4

459.5 1.6

467.7 1.8

478.1 2.2

487.5 2

496.1 1.8

501 1

505.3 0.9

509 0.7

515.6 1.3

522.9 1.4

214.6 2.3

220.9 2.9

226.8 2.7

233.4 2.9

239.3 2.5

245.2 2.5

249.4 1.7

252.6 1.3

254.9 0.9

258.1 1.3

262.1 1.5

4.3

5.5

5.2

4.5

3.7

3.4

4.2

6.3

7.3

7.2

4445 3421 1025

4785 4136 649

6171 4990 1181

6179 4779 1401

6363 5121 1242

4126 3100 1026

2194 1583 612

1697 1230 467

2314 1750 564

3090 2524 565

4108 3494 614

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

G ai n e s v i l l e

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist counties and is located in the north-central portion of the state. This metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history museum.

The Gainesville MSA will be one of the fastest-growing areas in employment growth in Florida, averaging 1.1 percent annually. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.1 percent, and per capita income is expected to average a level of 28.0 annually. The growth in housing starts will be the worst in the state, averaging 0.5 percent annually. Unemployment is expected to be one of the lowest, averaging 4.4 percent.

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 257,099 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Alachua County population estimate of 240,082 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Gilchrist County population estimate of 17,017 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 135,702 in January 2008 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3.1% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 4,162 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • University of Florida – 35,000 employees • Shands Hospital – 8,225 employees • North Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,560 employees • Nationwide Insurance – 1,058 employees Sources: University of Florida and Gainesville Council for Economic Outreach

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

The fastest growing sector in the area will be leisure, followed by professional and business services, with average annual growth rates of 3.2 and 2.3 percent, respectively.

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Area home sales plunge • In July, while Florida saw its first growth in home sales in over two years, Gainesville area home sales saw the largest drop in all of Florida. • July 2008 home sales were 36 percent below July 2007 sales, and the median price of the homes fell 6 percent from a year ago. • The Gainesville market, which was one of the more stable throughout the housing slump, may be feeling the effects of the University of Florida’s reduced budget, which impacts job growth in the area. Source: The Gainesville Sun, August 25, 2008 New name, same mission • Santa Fe Community College, now Santa Fe College, will offer students its first four-year degree programs in fall 2009. • Governor Crist signed a new state law allowing more community colleges to offer bachelor’s degrees. The law also created a state college system to oversee these colleges. • The college’s mission is to offer high-demand degrees at a lower cost than traditional universities. Source: The Gainesville Sun, July 31, 2008

G ai n e s v i l l e

UF, Sun Sports agree to $82M marketing deal • Fox’s Sun Sports and the University of Florida signed a 10-year, $82-million marketing deal. • The deal will give Sun Sports, a cable television network, significant sponsorship rights as well as the right to sell advertising and keep the revenue in return for about $8.2 million a year. • The agreement is considered one of the most lucrative in the U.S. Source: The Gainesville Sun, July 16, 2008 Shands ranks highest among Florida hospitals • U.S. News and World Report ranked Shands Hospital at the University of Florida among the top 50 hospitals in America in 11 specialties. It is the top hospital in Florida in five specialties: respiratory, heart and heart surgery, geriatrics, urology, and endocrinology. • Only 170 out of the 5,453 hospitals in the U.S. scored high enough to be ranked in any specialty. Source: The Gainesville Sun, July 15, 2008 Bill positions UF as leader of renewable energy efforts • Governor Crist signed a bill creating the Florida Energy Systems Consortium, which will bring state universities together to work on renewable energy technologies including biomass and solar. • UF was designated to head the consortium and will receive $15 million in funding. FAU, FSU, UCF, and USF will each receive $8.75 million in funding for the consortium. Source: The Gainesville Sun, June 27, 2008

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

G ai n e s v i l l e Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.5

Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate 7.0%

(percent)

Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product 8500.0

(Millions 2000 $)

6500.0

3.0% 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate

6000.0 5500.0

Gainesville Payroll Employment (Thousands)

140.0 135.0 130.0 125.0 120.0 115.0

2.5

7000.0

4.0%

110.0

7500.0

5.0%

145.0

1.5

8000.0

6.0%

2.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Gainesville Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Gross Metro Product

Gainesville Real Personal Income 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Personal Income

G ai n e s v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL

September 2008 Forecast*

2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

8.7 4.1 5.2 3.6

8.8 4.3 5.2 3.6

8.9 3.8 5.3 3.6

9 3.4 5.3 3.7

9.1 4.2 5.4 3.7

9.2 4.6 5.4 3.7

9.3 4.7 5.5 3.8

9.4 4.4 5.5 3.8

9.5 4.6 5.6 3.9

9.6 4.7 5.7 3.9

9.7 4.8 5.7 4

9.8 5.1 5.8 4.1

10 4.9 5.9 4.1

10.1 4.9 5.9 4.2

7.1 -0.1

7.1 0.4

7.1 0.3

7.2 1.1

7.3 2.8

7.4 3.6

7.4 3.8

7.5 3.2

7.5 3.4

7.6 3.5

7.7 3.7

7.7 3.8

7.8 3.6

7.9 3.4

33.3 27.1

33.5 27.1

33.8 27.2

34.1 27.5

34.4 27.6

34.7 27.8

35 27.9

35.2 28

35.6 28.3

35.9 28.5

36.3 28.7

36.6 28.8

37 29

37.3 29.1

37.8 2.1

38.2 3.5

38.5 3.2

38.8 3.4

39.1 3.3

39.4 3.2

39.7 3.2

40 3.2

40.3 3.1

40.6 3.1

41 3.1

41.3 3.2

41.6 3.3

42 3.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

135.7 1.2

135.7 0.7

135.8 0

136.4 0.4

136.8 0.8

137.2 1.1

137.7 1.4

137.7 0.9

138.5 1.3

138.9 1.2

139.2 1.1

139.7 1.5

140.2 1.3

140.7 1.3

4.5 -8.2

4.4 -8.3

4.4 -6.8

4.4 -3.4

4.4 -2.7

4.4 -1.3

4.4 -0.4

4.4 0.2

4.4 0.8

4.4 1

4.4 0.9

4.4 0.8

4.4 1

4.5 1.1

131.2 1.5

131.3 1

131.4 0.2

132 0.6

132.4 0.9

132.8 1.1

133.4 1.5

133.3 1

134.1 1.3

134.5 1.3

134.8 1.1

135.3 1.5

135.8 1.3

136.2 1.3

5.8 -11.1

5.7 -12.3

5.5 -12.9

5.4 -10.8

5.4 -6.8

5.5 -3

5.5 0.9

5.6 3.2

5.6 3.1

5.6 2.3

5.7 2.5

5.8 3.3

5.8 3.8

5.9 4.7

19.9 1

19.8 -0.3

19.7 -2.2

19.8 -1.8

19.9 -0.4

20 0.8

20.1 1.8

20.2 2.1

20.2 1.9

20.3 1.4

20.3 1.3

20.3 0.7

20.3 0.4

20.3 0.3

2.8 15.4 1.9

2.8 15.5 1.8

2.8 15.6 1.9

2.8 15.7 1.9

2.8 15.8 1.9

2.9 15.9 1.9

2.9 15.8 2

2.9 15.7 2

3 15.7 2

2 -2.1

2 -1.7

2 0.1

2 -2.5

2 -1

2 -1.1

2 -0.5

2 0.5

2 0.7

2 1.1

2 1.4

2 1.6

2 2.1

6.2 -3

6.2 -1.8

6.3 -1.5

6.3 0

6.3 1.2

6.4 1.8

6.4 2.1

6.5 2.2

6.5 2.4

6.6 2.5

6.6 2.3

11.5 -0.7

11.7 0.1

11.8 -0.3

12 3.2

12.1 4.7

12.1 4

12.2 3.5

12.3 3

12.4 3.2

12.5 3.2

12.7 3.7

12.8 4.2

13 4.5

13.1 4.7

22 1.4

22.1 0.5

22.3 2.4

22.6 3.6

22.7 3.5

22.8 3.2

22.9 2.7

23.1 2

23.1 1.7

23.2 1.6

23.2 1.3

23.3 1

23.4 1.1

15.2 9.1

15.3 6.2

15.4 4.7

15.4 1.7

15.4 1.5

15.4 1

15.4 0.6

15.5 0.3

15.5 0.5

15.5 0.7

15.6 1

15.7 1.2

15.7 1.3

15.8 1.4

4.9 1.5

4.9 -1.2

4.9 -2.2

4.9 0.5

4.9 1.1

4.9 1

4.9 0.9

5 1.1

5 0.7

5 0.3

5 0.1

4.2 9.2

4.2 5

4.2 -0.9

4.2 -0.7

4.2 0.1

4.3 1.5

4.4 6.6

3.8 -8.7

4.2 -0.4

4.3 0.2

4.2 -5.6

4.2 9.1

4.2 -0.9

4.2 -2.8

39.4 2.1

39.5 2.9

39.5 1.6

39.5 1.1

39.5 0.1

39.5 0

39.5 -0.1

39.5 0

39.6 0.3

39.6 0.4

39.7 0.5

39.8 0.6

39.9 0.7

7722.8

7739.4

7736.4

7780.8

7798.6

7829.3

7862.1

7871.4

7947

7992

8034

8094.4

8155.7

8205.7

261.3 1.3

262 1.2

262.7 1.1

263.3 1

264 1

264.7 1

265.4 1

266.1 1.1

266.8 1

267.5 1.1

268.2 1

268.9 1

269.6 1.1

270.3 1.1

137.3 2.1

137.3 0.9

137.2 0.3

137.3 -0.1

137.4 0.1

137.6 0.3

137.9 0.5

138.3 0.7

138.6 0.9

139 1

139.4 1.1

139.8 1.1

140.2 1.1

140.6 1.2

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.4

4.5

4.6

4.5

4.4

4.3

959 697 262

1024 676 348

1088 650 437

1143 706 437

1096 738 357

1123 796 327

1160 853 307

1188 892 296

1214 908 307

1231 919 311

1271 964 307

1334 1029 305

1375 1063 312

1393 1069 324

*Quarterly an an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

G ai n e s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

September 2008 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

5.7 3.8 3.5 2.3

5.8 1.8 3.6 2.2

6 2.9 3.7 2.3

6.8 13.4 4.2 2.6

7.4 8.1 4.4 2.9

7.9 6.7 4.7 3.1

8.3 5.7 5 3.3

8.7 4.6 5.1 3.5

9 4 5.3 3.7

9.4 4.6 5.6 3.9

9.9 4.9 5.8 4.1

5.6 1.6

5.6 0.4

5.7 0.9

6.3 10.5

6.6 5

6.8 3.9

7.1 3

7.1 0.8

7.3 2

7.5 3.5

7.8 3.6

24.2 23.7

24.4 23.6

24.8 23.5

27.8 25.7

29.6 26.5

30.9 27

32.2 27.4

33.3 27.3

34.2 27.5

35.4 28.2

36.8 28.9

27.7 2.6

28.6 3.4

29 1.5

32.5 11.9

34 4.6

35.7 5

36.8 3

37.7 2.5

39 3.3

40.2 3.2

41.5 3.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

124.8 1.3

124.7 -0.1

126.1 1.1

128.3 1.8

129.9 1.2

132 1.6

134.1 1.6

135.8 1.3

136.5 0.6

138.2 1.2

140 1.3

4.6 -14.5

4.5 -0.9

4.2 -5.9

4.2 -2

4.2 -0.2

4.7 13.6

4.9 3.7

4.5 -7.3

4.4 -3.6

4.4 0.4

4.4 1

120.3 2

120.2 -0.1

121.8 1.4

124.2 1.9

125.7 1.3

127.3 1.2

129.2 1.5

131.2 1.6

132.2 0.7

133.8 1.2

135.5 1.3

4.8 2.1

5.1 5.6

5.2 1.5

5.8 11.7

6.2 6.3

6.5 5.3

6.6 1.7

6 -9.4

5.5 -8.5

5.6 2.4

5.8 3.6

17.4 1.5

17.2 -1.2

17.3 1.1

17.4 0.4

18.1 3.7

18.7 3.5

19.7 5.6

20 1.4

19.8 -0.9

20.2 1.8

20.3 0.7

2.2 13.9 1.3

2.3 13.3 1.5

2.5 13.2 1.7

2.6 13.2 1.6

2.7 13.8 1.6

2.7 14.1 1.8

2.8 15.2 1.8

2.8 15.4 1.9

2.8 15.7 1.9

2.9 15.9 1.9

2.9 15.7 2

2.2 -6.5

2 -6.5

2 -1.3

2.1 6.1

2 -5.8

2 -2.9

2 3

2 -1.4

2 -1.1

2 0.5

2 1.8

6.6 4

6.6 -0.1

6.2 -6.4

6.2 -0.7

6.2 1

6.5 4

6.4 -0.5

6.3 -2.3

6.3 0.4

6.4 2.2

6.6 2.4

11.1 -2

9.9 -10.4

10.4 4.3

11.3 8.8

11.9 5.6

12.1 1.3

11.8 -2.1

11.7 -1.3

12 2.9

12.4 3.2

12.9 4.3

19.9 3.1

20.4 2.4

20.8 2.3

21.5 2.9

21.9 2.1

21.9 0.1

21.7 -0.9

21.9 0.8

22.6 3.2

23.1 2

23.3 1.1

12.3 3.8

12.1 -1.3

12 -0.5

12.9 7.5

13.7 5.9

13.4 -2

13.8 3

15.1 9

15.4 2.2

15.5 0.5

15.7 1.2

3.9 2.2

4.3 10.4

4.5 5.4

4.7 3.3

4.5 -3.1

4.7 2.6

4.8 3.6

4.9 1.6

4.9 -0.1

5 1.1

5 0.5

3.1 1.6

3.2 2.1

3.3 3.6

3.4 3.8

3.7 5.9

3.7 2.1

3.9 3.8

4.2 9

4.2 0

4.2 -0.6

4.2 -0.3

39 2.4

39.4 1

40 1.6

38.9 -2.8

37.6 -3.3

37.9 0.9

38.3 1.2

39.2 2.3

39.5 0.7

39.5 0.1

39.8 0.6

6292.2

6273.5

6436.1

6839.3

7254.4

7520.4

7613.1

7721.1

7786.3

7918.2

8122.5

236.3 1.2

239.2 1.2

241.7 1.1

244.7 1.2

248.9 1.7

253.9 2

257.5 1.4

260.9 1.3

263.7 1

266.4 1.1

269.2 1

124.5 1.5

125 0.4

126 0.8

126.9 0.7

127 0.1

129.9 2.3

134.2 3.3

137.2 2.2

137.4 0.1

138.5 0.8

140 1.1

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.5

3.7

3.4

2.8

4.6

4.5

4.3

2326 1183 1142

1942 1130 812

1706 1261 446

1838 1378 461

2224 1454 770

1885 1156 729

1365 762 603

1071 664 407

1112 722 390

1198 893 305

1343 1031 312

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

J ack s o n v i l l e

P r o fi l e s The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport. Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 1,300,823 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Baker County population estimate of 25,745 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Clay County population estimate of 182,023 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Duval County population estimate of 849,159 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Nassau County population estimate of 68,450 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • St. Johns County population estimate of 175,446 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 664,425 in January 2008 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 4.4% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 29,022 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Naval Air Station Jacksonville – 25,245 employees • Duval County Public Schools – 16,003 employees • Naval Station Mayport – 15,293 employees • City of Jacksonville Municipal Government – 8,828 employees • Blue Cross – 8,200 employees • Baptist Health – 7,000 employees

• • • •

Winn-Dixie Stores, Inc. – 6,200 employees Mayo Clinic – 5,000 employees CSX – 4,400 employees Citibank – 4,200 employees Source: The Cornerstone Regional Development Partnership

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s The Jacksonville area is expected to be near the top of the state for a variety of indicators. The per capita income level is supposed to average a level of 33.6. Average annual wage is expected to maintain a level of 46.9 and a growth rate of 3.4 percent. Employment growth is expected to grow at 1.1 percent annually, while gross metro product should be at 49,768.9. The population growth rate is expected to average 1.6 percent annually. The fastest growing sector in the Jacksonville MSA will be education and health services, averaging 3.1 percent annually. Following that sector is professional and business services, with an annual growth rate of 2.8 percent. Unemployment is expected to average 5.8 percent annually.

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Navy now area’s big housing developer • The Navy and Balfour Beatty Communities broke ground on a $200 million housing project for Naval Air Station Jacksonville and Naval Station Mayport. • Balfour Beatty will build or renovate more than 1,200 housing units over the next couple of years. • The project is expected to hurt the private housing market but benefit the Navy by drawing Navy personnel to the bases. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, September 5, 2008

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

J ack s o n v i l l e

EverBank reports record earnings Budget cuts cost Jacksonville nonprofits $25M • Everbank Financial Corporation reported earnings • 80 nonprofit organizations in Jacksonville will be of $44.7 million for the first two quarters of 2008, affected by a $25-million cut in funding by the up from $17.1 million earnings reported for the end of 2008. first two quarters of 2007. • Sixteen million dollars of this cut is a result of state • The 162 percent increase was in part a result of funding cuts, and the rest stems from reductions in EverBank’s sale of EverBank Reverse Mortgage federal and local funding. LLC to MetLife, Inc., this year and of the • In order to continue operations, it is estimated that company’s $18.5 million earnings from continuing the nonprofits must increase their income by 40 operations. percent through gifts and contributions. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, August 29, 2008 • EverBank Financial Corp., which employs more than 1,000 people, is the third-largest bank in Jacksonville. Europeans line up to do business in Jax Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, July 14, 2008 • The weak exchange rate between the dollar and the euro has made the U.S. an attractive place for European companies to do business. • Jacksonville is particularly attractive to European companies because it is even more affordable to do business in than cities like New York and Miami, and its rail, port, and highway access offer a logistical edge. • Major arrivals to Jacksonville include Deutsche Bank, a finance giant, which will require 1,000 full-time jobs, and a major cold storage logistics company that will require over 100 employees as well as attract more companies to the area. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, August 8, 2008 Fidelity National Financial lays off 1,600, reports weak earnings • After a 92 percent drop in net earnings in the second quarter of 2008 compared to the second quarter of last year, Fidelity National Financial was forced to lay off 1,600 employees. • FNF, a leading title insurer based in Jacksonville, reported that the weak earnings and resulting cuts were due to declining new sales volumes. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, July 24, 2008

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

J ack s o n v i l l e

Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate 7.0%

(percent)

0.4

0.6

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product 55000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

45000.0

5.0% 4.0%

40000.0

3.0%

35000.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate

30000.0

Jacksonville Payroll Employment 680.0 660.0 640.0 620.0 600.0 580.0 560.0 540.0 520.0

50000.0

6.0%

2.0%

0.8

(Thousands)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Gross Metro Product

Jacksonville Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Jacksonville Payroll Employment

-2.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

J ack s o n v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

September 2008 Forecast*

2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

53.1 3.9 29.3 23.8

53.6 4.4 29.6 24

54.2 4.6 29.9 24.4

54.9 4 30.2 24.7

55.7 4.9 30.6 25

56.4 5.2 31 25.3

57.1 5.3 31.5 25.6

57.8 5.3 31.8 26

58.7 5.4 32.3 26.4

59.5 5.5 32.7 26.8

60.3 5.6 33.2 27.1

61.2 5.8 33.7 27.5

62.1 5.9 34.2 27.9

63 6 34.7 28.4

43.2 -0.3

43.3 0.4

43.7 1.1

44.3 1.6

44.7 3.4

45.1 4.2

45.6 4.4

46 4

46.6 4.2

47.1 4.3

47.6 4.5

48.1 4.6

48.7 4.5

49.2 4.4

40 32.5

40.2 32.5

40.5 32.6

40.9 33

41.3 33.2

41.7 33.4

42 33.6

42.4 33.8

42.9 34

43.3 34.3

43.7 34.5

44.2 34.8

44.7 35

45.2 35.2

44.7 2.7

45.1 3.8

45.5 3.6

45.9 3.8

46.3 3.7

46.7 3.6

47.2 3.6

47.5 3.6

47.9 3.5

48.3 3.5

48.8 3.5

49.2 3.6

49.7 3.6

50.1 3.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

630.8 -0.3

631.1 -0.2

631.4 0

634.1 0.5

636.5 0.9

639.4 1.3

642.3 1.7

644.5 1.6

648.4 1.9

651.4 1.9

655 2

659.1 2.3

663.4 2.3

667.4 2.4

30.9 -3

30.5 -4

30.2 -4.3

30.1 -3.9

29.9 -3.3

29.8 -2.2

29.8 -1.4

29.9 -0.7

29.9 0

29.9 0.3

29.9 0.4

30 0.3

30 0.5

30.1 0.6

599.9 -0.1

600.6 0

601.1 0.3

604 0.7

606.6 1.1

609.6 1.5

612.5 1.9

614.7 1.8

618.5 2

621.5 2

625 2

629.1 2.4

633.3 2.4

637.3 2.5

44.1 -9.4

43.6 -9.2

42.9 -7.9

42.6 -6.1

43 -2.5

43.5 -0.2

43.9 2.2

44 3.3

44.3 3.1

44.4 2.2

44.8 2.2

45.3 3

45.9 3.5

46.3 4.3

138.8 -0.2

137.9 -0.3

137 -1.3

137.3 -1.2

138.1 -0.5

139.1 0.9

139.9 2.1

140.8 2.6

141.5 2.4

142 2.1

142.7 2

143.1 1.6

143.6 1.5

144.2 1.6

30.9 75.3 33.2

31.1 75.2 33.2

31 75.3 33.1

31.3 75.9 33.2

31.6 76.3 33.5

31.8 76.8 33.6

32 77.1 33.8

32.3 77.3 34.1

32.6 77.3 34.4

32.7 77.2 34.6

32.9 77.2 34.8

33.1 77 35.1

33.3 76.9 35.4

33.5 76.9 35.7

9.9 -3.3

9.8 -4.6

9.8 -3.4

9.7 -3.3

9.7 -1.8

9.7 -1

9.7 -0.4

9.7 0

9.7 -0.2

9.7 0.1

9.8 0.4

9.8 0.7

9.8 1.1

59.9 -0.2

59.7 -0.5

59.7 -0.7

59.8 -0.5

59.9 0

60.1 0.6

60.3 1

60.5 1.2

60.8 1.5

61.2 1.7

61.5 2

61.9 2.3

62.3 2.5

62.7 2.4

92.8 -1.6

94 -0.5

95.1 1.6

96.5 4.7

97 4.6

97.8 4.1

98.5 3.6

99.6 3.2

100.7 3.8

101.7 3.9

103 4.5

104.9 5.3

106.6 5.8

108.1 6.3

80.8 4.1

81.5 4

82.1 3.6

83.4 4

84.1 4

84.5 3.7

84.9 3.3

85.5 2.5

86 2.3

86.4 2.3

86.9 2.3

87.3 2.1

88 2.3

88.4 2.3

66.5 1.6

66.8 1.9

67 2.7

67.1 1.5

67.1 0.9

67.1 0.5

67.1 0.2

67.2 0.1

67.4 0.6

67.7 0.8

67.8 1.1

68.1 1.3

68.2 1.2

68.5 1.3

29 1.1

29.1 0.9

29.2 0.6

29.2 0.5

29.2 0.4

29.3 0.4

29.4 0.8

29.5 1.1

29.6 1.2

29.6 1

29.6 0.7

29.7 0.6

17.6 4

17.6 1.9

17.6 -0.3

17.6 -0.2

17.6 -0.3

17.6 0.1

17.9 1.9

16.8 -4.4

17.4 -1.1

17.5 -0.5

17.5 -2.5

17.5 3.9

17.5 0.5

17.5 -0.3

60.5 1.5

60.7 1.5

60.8 2.6

60.9 1.5

60.9 0.7

61 0.5

61.1 0.4

61.1 0.5

61.3 0.6

61.4 0.7

61.5 0.8

61.7 0.9

61.8 0.9

62 1

48486.1

48630.8

48662.8

48934.3

49064.3

49297.8

49516.6

49762.2

50182

50508.9

50881.9

51335.6

51813

52235

1328.1 1.7

1333 1.6

1337.8 1.5

1342.6 1.5

1347.6 1.5

1352.7 1.5

1358 1.5

1363.3 1.5

1368.7 1.6

1374.1 1.6

1379.4 1.6

1384.7 1.6

1390.3 1.6

1395.9 1.6

679.1 1.6

679.7 1

680 0.9

680.7 0.3

681.7 0.4

683.1 0.5

684.9 0.7

687.1 0.9

689.4 1.1

691.9 1.3

695.1 1.5

698.4 1.6

701.7 1.8

705 1.9

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.9

6.1

6.2

6.1

5.9

5.8

7418 5597 1821

7843 5679 2164

8096 5726 2370

8739 6208 2531

8817 6429 2387

9070 6758 2312

9515 7120 2395

9890 7432 2458

10358 7836 2522

11045 8417 2628

11789 9114 2675

12611 9824 2787

13227 10288 2939

13635 10526 3109

*Quarterly an an annual rate

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

J ack s o n v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

September 2008 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

33.8 2 19.8 14

35.1 3.9 20.4 14.7

37.2 5.9 21.9 15.3

40.5 8.9 23.4 17.1

44.3 9.3 25 19.3

48 8.3 27.2 20.8

50.6 5.6 28.4 22.3

52.8 4.3 29.2 23.7

55.3 4.7 30.5 24.9

58.3 5.4 32.1 26.2

61.7 5.8 33.9 27.7

33.1 -0.1

33.9 2.4

35.2 3.8

37.4 6.1

39.7 6.2

41.8 5.4

43.1 3

43.3 0.6

44.4 2.6

46.3 4.2

48.4 4.5

29.4 28.8

29.9 28.8

31 29.4

33 30.5

35.3 31.7

37.4 32.7

38.8 33

39.9 32.7

41.1 33

42.7 33.9

44.4 34.9

33.4 1.8

34.8 4.3

37 6.4

38.4 3.9

39.7 3.2

42 5.8

43.2 2.9

44.5 3

46.1 3.6

47.7 3.5

49.4 3.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

567.1 0.3

561.5 -1

564.6 0.5

582 3.1

605.1 4

623.9 3.1

632.4 1.4

631 -0.2

635.4 0.7

646.7 1.8

661.2 2.2

36.2 -8.3

34.4 -4.9

33.4 -3.1

33.3 -0.3

33.5 0.8

33.3 -0.8

32.2 -3.1

31.1 -3.6

30 -3.5

29.9 -0.5

30 0.5

530.9 0.9

527.1 -0.7

531.2 0.8

548.7 3.3

571.6 4.2

590.6 3.3

600.2 1.6

599.9 0

605.3 0.9

616.8 1.9

631.2 2.3

32.9 1

34.1 3.6

36.7 7.4

40.9 11.6

45.4 11

50.1 10.3

48.9 -2.4

44.9 -8.1

43 -4.3

44.2 2.7

45.6 3.2

125.6 -3.2

124.4 -0.9

125 0.4

128.1 2.5

132.7 3.6

136.9 3.1

138.9 1.5

138.6 -0.2

137.9 -0.5

141.1 2.3

143.4 1.7

26.2 67.6 31.7

25.9 68.1 30.4

26.8 68.8 29.4

26.9 71.2 30.1

27.8 73.9 31.1

29.9 74.8 32.2

30.7 75.8 32.4

31 75.2 33

31.4 76.1 33.4

32.4 77.2 34.2

33.2 77 35.2

14.4 -5.6

13.2 -8.1

12.4 -6.1

11.6 -6.5

11.9 2.4

11.1 -6.8

10.2 -7.7

10 -2.8

9.7 -2.4

9.7 -0.1

9.8 0.8

57.9 2.4

57.7 -0.3

57.6 -0.1

58.4 1.4

59.3 1.5

59.8 0.9

59.7 -0.3

60 0.5

59.9 -0.2

60.7 1.3

62.1 2.3

93.9 5.3

86.1 -8.2

84.1 -2.3

85.9 2.2

89.4 4.1

94.5 5.7

94.8 0.3

93.1 -1.8

96.6 3.8

100.1 3.6

105.6 5.5

61.1 2.4

63.5 4

64.7 1.9

67.9 5

71.3 4.9

74.5 4.5

77.5 4

80.4 3.8

83.5 3.8

85.7 2.6

87.6 2.3

51.1 1.8

52.5 2.8

53.3 1.6

56.3 5.5

60.4 7.3

62.1 2.9

65.1 4.7

66.2 1.7

67.1 1.4

67.3 0.4

68.2 1.2

23.9 0.4

24.9 4.6

25.7 3

26.4 2.6

26.8 1.5

27.6 3.1

28.7 4.1

29 0.8

29.2 0.6

29.4 0.7

29.6 0.9

17.7 -0.7

17.7 0.2

18 1.6

17.8 -1.3

17.4 -2.2

16.9 -2.6

17.1 0.8

17.6 3.4

17.6 -0.2

17.4 -1

17.5 0.3

52.5 1.9

52.8 0.5

53.6 1.7

55.4 3.3

57.1 3

57 0

59.2 3.8

60.1 1.5

60.9 1.3

61.2 0.5

61.8 0.9

39150.3

40335.6

43105.6

44958.6

46541.4

48041.2

48246

48523.5

48989.8

49992.4

51566.4

1151.5 2

1175.8 2.1

1199.2 2

1226.6 2.3

1253.3 2.2

1281 2.2

1303.7 1.8

1325.5 1.7

1345.2 1.5

1366 1.5

1387.6 1.6

595.6 1.1

597.5 0.3

599.4 0.3

609.3 1.6

623.4 2.3

645.1 3.5

667.5 3.5

677.7 1.5

681.4 0.5

688.4 1

700.1 1.7

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.1

5.3

4.6

3.8

3.4

3.9

5.4

6.1

5.9

5.8

12640 10027 2613

14252 11058 3194

15042 12825 2217

17883 13858 4024

23879 18655 5224

16715 12256 4459

10519 7477 3041

7789 5723 2066

8681 6281 2400

10202 7701 2501

12815 9938 2877

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Lake l a n d

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Lakeland MSA is comprised only of Polk County. It is located in the western center of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus. It is home to a few attractions, including Cypress Gardens and Fantasy of Flight. Also, the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians conduct spring training in Lakeland and Winter Haven, respectively.

The Lakeland MSA will show modest growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to average 4.7 percent annually, while average annual wage growth should be 2.9 percent. Employment growth should average 0.6 percent annually. Population growth is expected to be one of the highest in the state, averaging an annual growth rate of 2.2 percent. The unemployment rate in the area will be one of the highest in state as well, averaging 7.0 percent.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 574,746 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 267,983 in January 2008 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 4.8% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 12,734 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 6,644 employees • Lakeland Regional Medical Center – 4,540 employees • City of Lakeland Government – 2,600 employees • GEICO – 1,850 employees • Watson Clinic – 1,500 employees • GC Services – 1,000 employees • Summit Consulting – 1,000 employees • Rooms To Go – 900 employees • FedEx National LTL – 850 employees • Saddle Creek Corporation – 680 employees Source: Lakeland Economic Development Council

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

Education and health services is expected to be the highest growing sector in the area, followed by professional and business services, averaging growth rates of 2.6 and 1.5 percent a year, respectively.

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s More skilled workers needed in Polk • According to a survey of 165 local employers given by Polk Works in April and May of this year, employers stated that a shortage of educated and skilled workers was their top problem, above the downturn in the economy. • Some positions that employers are having trouble filling include engineers, health care workers, and customer service representatives. • Employers listed low cost of living, funding from the local government and Polk County’s location in the state as benefits to working in the area. Source: Lakeland Ledger, August 27, 2008 Posner Park to feed retail-hungry Four Corners • Posner Park, a multi-million dollar shopping mall currently growing in Four Corners (including Polk County), is proving to be a big success. It is the only shopping mall within miles of the area, giving residents a local shopping district to visit. • Best Buy, Target, Staples, Books-a-Million, and Belk opened in the spring of this year, and a Michaels, J.C. Penney, and PetSmart opened shortly thereafter. A Dick’s Sporting Goods and Ross are expected to open in the next few months.

Lake l a n d

• The shopping mall, one of the parts of the Posner Park project, is expected to be complete by the beginning of 2009. A movie theater, homes, and high-end stores are part of a larger 10-year project. Source: Lakeland Ledger, July 29, 2008 Rising tourism revenue cheers rental owners • According to Polk County, tax revenues generated from tourism rentals in the Four Corners area (including Polk) have been increasing recently, most dramatically in May, showing a 25.9 percent increase from a year ago. • A study of the tourism rental industry found that in 2005 more than $3.5 million was generated in tax revenue for Polk County alone, representing more than 51 percent of all taxes in this area. • There were issues among county leaders that high gas prices and a slumping economy would hurt tourism, but it does not appear that that was the case. Source: Lakeland Ledger, July 29, 2008

Approval expected for huge West Lakeland project • A development project in West Lakeland is in the process of being approved by the city commission. • The project is divided into three phases: the first phase will take about five years to develop office space, along with 3.4 million square feet of warehouse and distribution facilities; the second phase will bring stores and more offices; and the third phase will bring a hotel and apartment units. • The whole project is expected to bring in a lot of tax money and additional jobs for the area. Source: Lakeland Ledger, July 10, 2008

$2M deep well plan frustrates Polk officials • Polk County must find alternative water sources to groundwater by 2013, according to a rule enacted to prevent further damaging surface waters. • In response, Polk County is trying to get an exploratory well search approved at the price of $2 million in order to determine if the aquifer is a reliable water source. • Some Polk officials consider the large investment a waste of money due to the possibility that no alternative water source is found. Source: Lakeland Ledger, July 10, 2008

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Lake l a n d

Lakeland MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate 8.0%

(percent)

0.5

Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product 14000.0

5.0%

11000.0

4.0%

10000.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate

9000.0

Lakeland Payroll Employment (Thousands)

10.0% 8.0%

210.0

6.0%

200.0

4.0%

190.0

2.0%

180.0

0.0%

(Millions 2000 $)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Lakeland Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Gross Metro Product

Lakeland Real Personal Income

220.0

170.0

2.5

12000.0

6.0%

230.0

13000.0

7.0%

3.0%

1.5

-2.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Personal Income

Lake l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL

September 2008 Forecast*

2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

18.8 3.2 7.8 11

19 4 7.9 11.1

19.2 4.3 7.9 11.3

19.5 4 8 11.4

19.7 5.2 8.1 11.6

20 5.3 8.2 11.7

20.2 5.1 8.3 11.9

20.4 4.9 8.4 12

20.7 4.9 8.5 12.2

21 5 8.6 12.4

21.2 5.2 8.7 12.5

21.5 5.3 8.8 12.7

21.8 5.4 9 12.9

22.1 5.4 9.1 13

15.3 -1

15.3 0.1

15.5 0.8

15.7 1.6

15.9 3.7

16 4.4

16.1 4.3

16.3 3.7

16.4 3.7

16.6 3.8

16.8 4

16.9 4

17.1 4

17.2 3.8

31.5 25.7

31.6 25.6

31.9 25.6

32.1 25.9

32.4 26

32.6 26.1

32.8 26.2

33.1 26.3

33.4 26.5

33.7 26.6

34 26.8

34.3 27

34.6 27.1

35 27.3

36.9 2.5

37.2 3.4

37.5 3.1

37.8 3.2

38.1 3.1

38.3 3

38.6 3

38.9 3

39.2 2.9

39.4 2.8

39.8 2.9

40 2.9

40.4 3

40.7 3.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

210.5 -2.2

210.6 -1.5

210.7 -1.2

211.7 0.2

212.6 1

213.5 1.4

214.6 1.9

215.6 1.8

216.7 1.9

217.5 1.9

218.4 1.8

219.7 1.9

220.9 1.9

221.8 2

15.9 -6.2

15.7 -6.3

15.6 -5.2

15.5 -3.6

15.4 -3.1

15.4 -2.2

15.4 -1.4

15.4 -0.7

15.4 0.1

15.5 0.5

15.5 0.6

15.6 0.8

15.6 0.9

194.6 -1.9

194.9 -1.1

195.1 -0.9

196.1 0.5

197.1 1.3

198.1 1.6

199.2 2.1

200.1 2

201.3 2.1

202 2

203 1.9

204.1 2

205.3 2

206.2 2.1

13.5 -13.8

13.2 -13.2

12.9 -12.7

12.8 -8.2

12.9 -4.9

13 -1.9

13.1 1.2

13.1 2.4

13.2 2.4

13.2 1.5

13.3 1.6

13.4 2.4

13.5 2.9

13.7 3.7

48.6 -1.7

48.4 -0.8

48.1 -2

48.3 -1.3

48.7 0.2

49.1 1.4

49.4 2.7

49.8 3

50.1 2.9

50.3 2.5

50.6 2.3

50.8 1.9

51 1.7

51.2 1.7

10.1 26.5 12.3

10.2 26.7 12.4

10.1 27 12.4

10.2 27.4 12.5

10.3 27.5 12.6

10.4 27.8 12.7

10.5 27.9 12.9

10.5 27.9 13

10.6 27.9 13.2

10.7 27.8 13.3

10.8 27.7 13.4

10.8 27.6 13.6

10.9 27.5 13.7

11 27.5 13.8

2.1 -4.9

2.1 -2.3

2 -3.3

2 -2.5

2 -0.6

2 -0.2

2.1 0.4

2.1 1.1

2.1 1.4

2.1 1.7

2.1 1.8

2.1 2.2

2.1 2.1

11.6 -2.1

11.6 -0.4

11.6 -0.5

11.7 0.4

11.8 1.6

11.8 2.1

11.9 2.3

12 2.3

12 2.2

12.1 2.2

12.2 2.3

12.2 2.4

12.3 2.4

12.4 2.2

34.2 -3.8

34.6 -3.1

34.9 -0.8

35.4 2.6

35.7 4.2

35.9 3.6

36.1 3.3

36.4 3

36.8 3.1

37 3.1

37.4 3.6

37.9 4

38.3 4.3

38.6 4.4

28.5 2.9

28.7 2.9

29 3.1

29.4 4.2

29.6 4.1

29.7 3.7

29.9 3.2

30.1 2.5

30.2 2.1

30.3 2

30.4 1.7

30.5 1.4

30.7 1.4

17.8 2.1

17.9 1.7

18 2.2

18 1.4

18 1

18 0.5

18 0.2

18 0.3

18.1 0.7

18.1 0.9

18.2 1.2

18.3 1.5

18.4 1.6

18.5 1.7

9.3 0.6

9.3 1

9.4 0.9

9.3 0

9.3 -0.3

9.3 -0.4

9.3 -0.6

9.3 -0.4

9.3 0

9.3 0.3

9.3 0.4

9.3 0.3

9.3 0.2

9.4 0.2

1.4 -0.1

1.4 -0.6

1.3 -6.1

1.4 -1.2

1.4 1.5

1.5 5

1.6 22.5

1.4 0.9

1.5 5.9

1.5 2.6

1.4 -14.5

1.4 0.6

1.4 -7

1.4 -7.1

27.6 -0.7

27.7 0.7

27.8 0.8

27.8 1.7

27.8 0.6

27.8 0.4

27.9 0.3

27.9 0.5

28 0.7

28.1 0.8

28.2 0.9

28.3 0.9

28.4 1

12894.4

12946.7

12961.8

13052.1

13098.8

13168.5

13246.5

13323.4

13423.1

13502.6

13595.2

13709.2

13826

13923

595.5 2.8

599.3 2.7

602.8 2.6

606.3 2.5

609.5 2.4

612.7 2.2

615.6 2.1

618.3 2

620.8 1.8

623.2 1.7

625.4 1.6

627.5 1.5

629.6 1.4

631.7 1.4

269.4 -0.1

269.8 -0.1

270.2 0.1

270.7 0.7

271.2 0.7

271.8 0.7

272.6 0.9

273.4 1

274.3 1.1

275.2 1.2

276.1 1.3

277 1.3

277.9 1.3

278.9 1.4

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

7.1

7.2

7.4

7.5

7.4

7.3

7.2

7.1

6.9

2353 2068 284

2706 2312 394

2914 2437 476

3343 2842 501

3494 3041 452

3812 3391 421

4183 3757 425

4466 4052 414

4766 4333 433

5030 4604 425

5400 4994 406

5849 5432 417

6147 5716 430

6272 5844 427

*Quarterly an an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Lake l a n d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

September 2008 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

12.2 6 5.7 6.5

12.5 2.1 5.8 6.7

13.1 4.7 6 7

14.4 10.6 6.5 7.9

16 10.6 7.2 8.8

17.3 8.4 7.7 9.7

18.1 4.3 7.8 10.3

18.7 3.7 7.8 10.9

19.6 4.7 8.1 11.5

20.6 5 8.5 12.1

21.7 5.3 8.9 12.8

12 3.9

12 0.6

12.4 2.7

13.3 7.7

14.3 7.4

15.1 5.5

15.4 1.8

15.3 -0.1

15.8 2.6

16.4 3.9

17 4

24.8 24.3

24.9 24.1

25.6 24.2

27.6 25.4

29.5 26.4

30.9 27

31.3 26.6

31.5 25.9

32.2 25.9

33.2 26.4

34.5 27.1

30.3 2

30.9 1.7

32 3.8

32.6 1.6

33.4 2.7

35.4 5.7

35.9 1.5

36.8 2.6

37.9 3.1

39 2.9

40.2 3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

186.2 1.2

185.7 -0.3

187.5 1

198.4 5.8

212.9 7.3

215.4 1.2

215.4 0

211.4 -1.8

212.1 0.3

216.1 1.9

220.2 1.9

18.9 -6.7

18.4 -2.2

18.1 -1.9

18.2 0.6

18.5 1.3

17.9 -3.1

17.1 -4.2

16.1 -6.3

15.5 -3.6

15.4 -0.4

15.5 0.8

167.3 2.2

167.2 0

169.4 1.3

180.2 6.3

194.4 7.9

197.5 1.6

198.3 0.4

195.4 -1.5

196.6 0.6

200.7 2.1

204.7 2

14 1.3

13.6 -2.8

12.9 -5.2

14.4 11.4

16.4 13.7

16.9 3.1

15.9 -5.4

13.9 -13.1

12.9 -7.1

13.1 1.9

13.5 2.7

45.3 0.5

44 -2.9

42.1 -4.2

43.9 4.3

48 9.4

48.9 1.8

49.3 0.7

48.8 -1

48.6 -0.5

49.9 2.8

50.9 1.9

8.5 26.4 10.4

8.5 25 10.4

9.1 22.5 10.5

9.4 23.5 11

10.4 25.5 12.2

10.4 26.1 12.5

10.3 26.3 12.6

10.1 26.5 12.4

10.3 27.4 12.6

10.6 27.8 13.1

10.9 27.6 13.6

2.6 9.2

2.4 -4.9

2.2 -7.9

2.2 -1.1

2.3 4

2.4 2

2.2 -8.1

2.1 -3.7

2 -1.7

2.1 1

2.1 1.9

10.3 6.9

10.8 5.3

11 2

10.9 -1

11.2 2.7

11.6 3.2

11.8 1.8

11.6 -1.2

11.7 0.9

12 2.2

12.3 2.3

24 12.2

24.4 1.6

29.2 19.7

34.5 18

37.3 8.3

36.7 -1.7

35.9 -2.1

34.6 -3.6

35.5 2.4

36.6 3.1

38.1 4.1

22.8 2.1

22.5 -1.3

22.9 1.7

24.1 5.3

25.8 7.1

26.6 3.2

27.6 3.8

28.4 2.6

29.4 3.8

30.1 2.4

30.6 1.5

15.1 1.5

15.8 4.8

15 -5.4

15.3 2.2

16.7 8.8

17 1.8

17.3 2

17.7 2.7

18 1.3

18.1 0.5

18.3 1.5

7 -2.6

7.4 5.1

7.5 0.9

8 7.6

9.1 13

9.5 4.5

9.2 -2.8

9.3 1.2

9.3 0

9.3 -0.2

9.3 0.3

1.4 -17.6

1.4 3

1.4 -3

1.3 -2.5

1.4 5.4

1.4 -1.5

1.4 1.9

1.4 -0.1

1.4 -0.2

1.5 7.8

1.4 -7.3

24.8 -2

24.9 0.1

25.3 1.6

25.5 1

26.3 2.9

26.7 1.7

27.7 3.6

27.6 -0.4

27.8 0.9

28 0.6

28.2 0.9

11047.6

11226.1

11656.9

12081.2

12924.1

13156.6

13155.4

13012.4

13070.3

13373.9

13763.4

492.4 1.3

499.9 1.5

510 2

523.7 2.7

541.3 3.4

559.9 3.4

576.9 3

593.5 2.9

607.8 2.4

619.5 1.9

628.6 1.5

236.2 2.1

238.1 0.8

239.7 0.7

248.1 3.5

256.4 3.3

263 2.6

269.1 2.3

269.5 0.2

271 0.5

273.9 1.1

277.5 1.3

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.8

5.5

4.9

4.1

3.7

4.5

6.4

7.4

7.2

4577 3989 588

4907 4484 423

6789 6169 620

9088 8297 790

12877 11725 1152

9528 8279 1249

4379 3999 380

3062 2506 557

3391 2928 463

4611 4187 424

5917 5497 420

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B eac h

P r o fi l e s The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Miami Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, this area is home to many sports teams, such as the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins, and the Florida Panthers. Other major businesses also reside in this metro, including the Miami Seaquarium, the University of Miami, and Florida International University. Quick Facts: • Metro area population estimate of 5,413,212 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,387,170 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Broward County population estimate of 1,759,591 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,266,451 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 2,821,912 in January 2008 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 4% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 114,108 unemployed people for the metro area. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Miami-Dade County Public School – 54,387 employees • Miami-Dade County – 32,265 employees • Federal Government – 20,100 employees • Florida State Government – 18,900 employees • Jackson Health System – 11,700 employees • Baptist Health South Florida – 10,300 employees • University of Miami – 9,367 employees

• American Airlines – 9,000 employees • United Parcel Service – 5,000 employees • BellSouth – 4,800 employees Source: Greater Miami Chamber of Commerce

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s The Miami–Ft. Lauderdale–Miami Beach area is expected to have some of the strongest economic indicators in the state for average annual wage and per capita income, at a level of 49.1 and 38.2, respectively. Miami ranked first in the state for gross metro product at a level of 216,837.1. Employment growth is expected to average 1.0 percent annually. Unemployment is expected to be 6.0 percent on average each year. Miami’s fastest growing sector is expected to be professional and business services at 4.2 percent annually, followed by education and health services at an average of 2.7 percent growth each year.

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s More than a dozen new schools to open in MiamiDade • More than a dozen new schools, and two replacement schools, opened in Miami-Dade for the 2008-2009 school year. • Due to rising prices and smaller budgets, program and personnel cuts were unavoidable. Teachers have been denied their raises and are fighting for their current salaries. • More cuts from Tallahassee are anticipated, which could threaten health care coverage and lead to more layoffs. Source: Miami Herald, August 19, 2008

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B eac h

Sunny Isles ailing budget curbs projects, cuts jobs • To help cope with the smaller amounts of money available for the city to use, there will be project and job cuts in Sunny Isles. • The city’s manager office will consolidate various positions that had been done by other offices; city planning positions, tech positions, and administrative positions will be cut. • The budget of $30.7 million will distribute money to Pelican Community Park and replace run-down police and public service vehicles and disaster management systems. Source: Miami Herald, July 29, 2008 Miami Beach taxes will remain steady • The Miami Beach City Commission has approved a plan to cut many programs and raise various fees, but it decreased the tax rate by about 0.1 percent. • The $2 million needed to balance the $14.7-million budget deficit will come from money through budget cuts, fee increases, and resort and convention development taxes. • The cuts will come from closing 113 jobs, asking employees to take unpaid days off, etc. Source: Miami Herald, July 18, 2008 U.S. easing grip on Dade HUD • The federal government will be loosening its control over the Miami-Dade Housing Agency, even if the county does not meet the agreed-upon reforms. • According to the deal between the federal department and Mayor Alvarez, the county will need to attempt privatization of the rentalassistance program, since neither county nor federal governments are able to. • Privatizing the rental-assistance program will be a big step, as Miami-Dade historically opposes outsourcing projects; however, the county has had a bad track record in management, record-keeping, and oversight. Source: Miami Herald, July 15, 2008

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

City officials ask banks to rescue ‘American dream’ • As an attempt to help homeowners avoid the wave of foreclosures, Miami city officials have asked local banks to hold seminars about mortgage practices and to begin an emergency fund for homeowners. • Some cities have state money set aside for homeowners facing foreclosure, but the requirements to meet this program have disqualified many homeowners. • City officials worry that as foreclosures increase, property values will fall, people will move, and vacant homes will attract vandalism. Source: Miami Herald, May 26, 2008

M iami â&#x20AC;&#x201C; F o r t Lau d e r d a l e â&#x20AC;&#x201C; M iami B eac h Miami - Ford Lauderdale - Miami Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate (percent)

7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate

0.4

0.6

2600.0 2500.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

230000.0 220000.0 210000.0 200000.0 190000.0 180000.0 170000.0 160000.0 150000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Gross Metro Product

Miami Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

2400.0

4.0%

2300.0

2.0%

2200.0

0.0%

2100.0 2000.0

Miami Real Gross Metro Product

Miami Payroll Employment (Thousands)

0.8

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Miami Payroll Employment

-2.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B eac h

Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach (MD), FL

September 2008 Forecast*

2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

243 3.5 114.3 128.7

244.8 3.8 115.4 129.4

247.5 3.9 116.5 131.1

250.3 3.3 117.7 132.6

253.2 4.2 119.2 134

256.1 4.6 120.7 135.4

259.2 4.7 122.4 136.8

262.6 4.9 123.9 138.6

265.8 5 125.4 140.4

269.1 5.1 126.9 142.3

272.4 5.1 128.5 143.9

275.8 5.1 130.2 145.6

279.4 5.1 132 147.4

283 5.2 133.7 149.3

197.8 -0.7

197.8 -0.2

199.2 0.4

201.7 0.9

203.4 2.8

205.1 3.7

206.9 3.8

209.1 3.6

211 3.8

213.1 3.9

215 3.9

217 3.8

218.9 3.7

220.7 3.6

44.9 36.6

45.3 36.6

45.8 36.9

46.3 37.3

46.8 37.6

47.4 37.9

47.9 38.2

48.5 38.6

49 38.9

49.5 39.2

50 39.5

50.6 39.8

51.1 40

51.6 40.3

46.9 2.3

47.4 3.7

47.8 3.4

48.1 3.5

48.5 3.4

48.9 3.3

49.4 3.3

49.7 3.3

50.1 3.2

50.5 3.2

50.9 3.1

51.3 3.2

51.7 3.3

52.2 3.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

2421.5 -0.4

2422.6 -0.5

2423.6 -0.3

2432.9 0.6

2442.1 0.9

2453.7 1.3

2466.2 1.8

2480.1 1.9

2491 2

2499.9 1.9

2511.5 1.8

2524.6 1.8

2537.9 1.9

2549.4 2

92.3 -4

90.8 -4.9

89.8 -5.2

89.3 -4.5

88.7 -3.9

88.4 -2.6

88.3 -1.7

88.3 -1.1

88.3 -0.4

88.2 -0.2

88.2 -0.1

88.2 -0.2

88.3 0

88.5 0.2

2329.3 -0.2

2331.9 -0.3

2333.7 -0.1

2343.6 0.8

2353.4 1

2365.3 1.4

2378 1.9

2391.8 2.1

2402.7 2.1

2411.6 2

2423.3 1.9

2436.4 1.9

2449.6 2

2460.9 2

140.5 -10

139.4 -8.9

137.8 -7.2

137 -4.8

138.2 -1.6

139.6 0.2

140.9 2.3

141.1 3

141.6 2.4

141.2 1.1

142 0.8

143.3 1.5

144.6 2.2

145.7 3.2

545.8 0.2

541 -1.4

536.7 -2.4

536.8 -1.7

538.7 -1.3

541.1 0

543.2 1.2

545.8 1.7

547.5 1.6

548.2 1.3

549.5 1.2

550 0.8

550.8 0.6

551.9 0.7

149.6 301.8 96.9

149.6 301.4 97.1

148.8 301.5 96.9

149.3 303.2 97.4

150 304.1 98.2

150.3 305.6 98.8

150.6 306.1 99.4

151.2 306.3 100.2

152 305.9 101.2

152.3 305 101.9

152.6 304.3 102.5

153.2 302.8 103.2

153.8 301.9 103.9

154.1 301.1 104.6

50.8 -1.9

50.4 -3.1

50.1 -3.5

49.6 -3.1

49.4 -2.9

49.3 -2.3

49.2 -1.6

49.1 -0.9

49 -0.7

49.1 -0.2

49.3 0.1

49.4 0.4

49.4 0.9

49.6 0.9

175.8 -1.9

176 -2

176.5 -0.7

177.3 0.9

178.1 1.3

179 1.7

179.7 1.8

180.4 1.7

181 1.7

181.8 1.6

182.7 1.7

183.6 1.8

184.5 1.9

185.1 1.8

396.6 -0.3

401.4 1.1

405.5 2.6

411.2 4.6

415.9 4.8

422.1 5.2

428.4 5.7

435.9 6

443.6 6.7

449.8 6.6

456.6 6.6

465.2 6.7

473 6.6

479.3 6.6

332.6 4.8

335.2 4.2

337.9 3.7

342.2 4.1

344.4 3.5

345.4 3.1

346.5 2.5

348.2 1.8

349.5 1.5

350.3 1.4

351.4 1.4

352.2 1.1

353.7 1.2

354.5 1.2

261.6 2.5

262.1 1.3

262.4 1.7

262.8 1.3

262.1 0.2

261.8 -0.1

261.5 -0.4

261.4 -0.5

261.7 -0.2

262.1 0.1

262.3 0.3

262.8 0.5

262.9 0.5

263.4 0.5

102.6 1.7

102.8 0.6

103 1.8

103.1 0.8

103.1 0.5

103.3 0.5

103.3 0.4

103.7 0.5

104.1 0.9

104.5 1.2

104.7 1.3

104.8 1.1

104.9 0.7

105.2 0.6

34.4 2.5

34.4 1.8

34.3 -0.3

34.3 0

34.4 -0.1

34.4 0.2

35.9 4.5

36.6 6.7

34.8 1.4

34.2 -0.6

34.2 -4.8

34.1 -6.9

34.1 -2.1

34.1 -0.3

288.5 -2.9

289.2 -1.1

289.5 -1.4

289.4 -0.4

289.3 0.3

289.3 0

289.4 -0.1

289.5 0

289.9 0.2

290.3 0.3

290.8 0.5

291.1 0.6

291.6 0.6

292.2 0.7

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

211261 211781.9 211781.4 212738.4 213163.1 214121.6 215192.7 216635.3 217963.7 219104.3 220565.9 222319.8 224139.9 225677.9 5409 -0.1

5407 -0.1

5404.9 -0.1

5404 -0.1

5404.6 -0.1

5406.8 0

5410.7 0.1

5416.5 0.2

5423.9 0.4

5432.6 0.5

5443.4 0.6

5455.7 0.7

5469.1 0.8

5483.5 0.9

2860.4 1.1

2858.3 0.5

2857 0.5

2858.8 0

2861.1 0

2864.5 0.2

2868.6 0.4

2872.9 0.5

2877.7 0.6

2883.1 0.6

2887.5 0.7

2893.1 0.7

2899.2 0.7

2906 0.8

6.1

6.2

6.3

6.2

6.1

8106 4040 4066

10929 5056 5873

13030 5595 7435

13604 6171 7433

12987 6252 6734

13677 7142 6535

14904 8180 6724

16195 9168 7028

17866 10276 7590

19396 11318 8077

21264 12887 8377

23730 14911 8820

25816 16384 9432

27375 17221 10154

*Quarterly an an annual rate

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B eac h

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach (MD), FL

September 2008 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

163.9 4.4 82 81.9

169.8 3.6 84.1 85.7

174 2.5 87.6 86.4

189.8 9.1 93.5 96.3

206.5 8.8 101 105.5

220.6 6.8 107.7 112.9

232.8 5.5 111.4 121.4

242.1 4 114 128.2

251.8 4 118.5 133.3

264.2 4.9 124.7 139.5

277.7 5.1 131.1 146.5

160.5 2.2

164 2.2

164.8 0.5

175.1 6.3

185 5.7

192.4 4

198 2.9

198.5 0.3

202.4 1.9

210 3.8

217.9 3.8

32 31.3

32.7 31.5

33.1 31.3

35.6 32.9

38.3 34.3

40.8 35.5

43 36.6

44.8 36.7

46.6 37.4

48.7 38.7

50.8 39.9

36.8 3.2

37.8 2.7

39.2 3.8

40.7 3.7

42.3 4

44.3 4.6

45.5 2.8

46.8 2.7

48.3 3.4

49.9 3.2

51.5 3.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

2213.1 2.1

2210.2 -0.1

2218.1 0.4

2285.3 3

2372 3.8

2419.8 2

2434 0.6

2423.5 -0.4

2438.1 0.6

2484.3 1.9

2530.8 1.9

122.9 -7.9

112.4 -8.6

103.4 -8

100.8 -2.5

101.1 0.3

100.6 -0.5

97.6 -2.9

92.8 -4.9

89 -4.1

88.3 -0.9

88.3 0

2090.2 2.8

2097.9 0.4

2114.7 0.8

2184.5 3.3

2270.9 4

2319.2 2.1

2336.3 0.7

2330.6 -0.2

2349 0.8

2396 2

2442.6 1.9

120 2.6

118.8 -1.1

120.3 1.3

129.4 7.6

145.3 12.3

162.2 11.6

158.5 -2.3

143.1 -9.7

138.2 -3.4

141.2 2.2

143.9 1.9

523.1 0.3

515.3 -1.5

509.8 -1.1

516.3 1.3

529.4 2.5

542.6 2.5

547.2 0.8

545.6 -0.3

538.3 -1.3

546.2 1.5

550.6 0.8

130.9 293 99.1

132 286.1 97.1

133.9 282 93.9

138.3 284.9 93.2

140.8 293.3 95.3

144.2 302.7 95.7

147 304.4 95.8

149.2 302.2 96.6

149.6 303.6 97.8

151.5 305.9 100.7

153.4 302.5 103.6

65.8 6.6

61.8 -6.1

57.5 -6.9

56.6 -1.6

55.9 -1.1

53.2 -4.8

52 -2.3

51.1 -1.9

49.6 -2.9

49.1 -0.9

49.4 0.6

159.4 1.2

162.4 1.8

163.9 1

169.6 3.5

177.8 4.8

183.1 3

180.7 -1.3

176.3 -2.4

177.7 0.8

180.7 1.7

184 1.8

338.9 8.1

341 0.6

344.2 0.9

368.8 7.1

397.3 7.7

399.7 0.6

398.7 -0.2

396.6 -0.5

413.7 4.3

439.4 6.2

468.5 6.6

263 2.5

273.9 4.1

283.3 3.4

292.8 3.4

300.8 2.7

307.2 2.1

317.8 3.5

330.6 4

342.5 3.6

348.6 1.8

352.9 1.2

226.9 3.5

224.4 -1.1

228.9 2

239.7 4.7

247 3

251.1 1.7

256.1 2

260.3 1.6

262.3 0.8

261.7 -0.2

262.9 0.5

93.3 -2.7

93.6 0.3

95.4 2

97.3 2

98.6 1.3

98.9 0.3

100.8 2

102.2 1.4

103.1 0.9

103.9 0.7

104.9 0.9

31.7 -3.5

32.1 1.3

34.1 6.2

34.2 0.4

34.5 1

34 -1.4

33.8 -0.8

34.4 1.8

34.4 0

35.4 3

34.1 -3.6

268.1 3.9

274.8 2.5

277.4 1

279.9 0.9

284.4 1.6

287.2 1

290.8 1.2

290.5 -0.1

289.4 -0.4

289.8 0.1

291.4 0.6

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

178795.6 181143.2 187615.7 196788.7 209907.9 216068.8 216107.3 213997.3 212951.2

217224 223175.9

5121.5 1.7

5200.5 1.5

5261.8 1.2

5329.4 1.3

5387.6 1.1

5413.1 0.5

5413.1 0

5409.8 -0.1

5405.1 -0.1

5420.9 0.3

5462.9 0.8

2545.7 1.8

2573.3 1.1

2587.4 0.5

2632.3 1.7

2703.6 2.7

2770.2 2.5

2825.2 2

2855.1 1.1

2860.3 0.2

2875.6 0.5

2896.5 0.7

5.3

6.2

5.7

5.1

4.2

3.6

3.8

5.4

6.3

6.2

6.1

35839 23909 11930

37858 21870 15987

37956 23592 14364

40690 23676 17014

41844 22548 19295

32801 15772 17029

14801 7580 7221

9924 4644 5280

13325 6290 7034

17090 9736 7355

24546 15351 9196

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Naples–Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier County only. Located on the southwest coast of Florida, the area is notable for numerous recreation and leisure activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the “Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida.”

The Naples–Marco Island MSA is ranked number one in the state of Florida for personal income growth, per capita income, average annual wage, average annual wage growth, and housing starts. Personal income will grow at a rate of 4.9 percent and per capita income will average a level of 55.3. Average annual wage will be at a level of 50.1, with the average annual wage growing at a rate of 3.8 percent. Housing starts will average a rate of 26.8 percent annually. Employment growth is also one of the highest, with an average annual rate of 1.1 percent.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 315,839 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 151,587 in January 2008 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 4.8% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 7,220 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Collier County School Board – 3,350 employees • NCH Healthcare Systems – 2,700 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,755 employees • Collier County Government – 1,060 employees • Marriott Corporation – 860 employees • County Sheriff’s Department – 838 employees • Winn Dixie Stores, Inc. – 760 employees • The Ritz-Carlton, Naples – 758 employees • Naples Registry Resort – 600 employees • Collier Enterprises – 500 employees Source: Naples Homes Real Estate and Relocation Services

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

Education and health services is Naples’ fastest growing sector, growing at a rate of 3.4 percent on average each year. Following that sector is professional and business services, with a growth rate of 3.0 percent annually. The area also has one of the highest unemployment rates at 7.5 percent.

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Naples among growing number of cities across Florida dipping into savings to balance their budgets • Naples City Council may be withdrawing about $600,000 from their savings in order to balance their 2009 budget. • The unreserved fund must total at least 5 percent of the city budget and can be used for anything that the city deems necessary or desired. • In Florida, this money tends to go toward alleviating the economic troubles of natural disasters, such as hurricanes. Source: Naples Daily News, August 31, 2008

Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d

Kohl’s looking to hire 225 workers for new Naples store • A new Kohl’s store will be opening on Naples Boulevard in October and it hopes to fill 225 various positions in the company. • In July, the growth in retail in the U.S. was 1.4 percent, the highest of the year since January. • This big increase in hired workers is a positive sign for the economy given the rising unemployment in the state. Source: Naples Daily News, August 10, 2008

New economic sub-district could bring 2,000 jobs to Immokalee • In Collier County, Immokalee has been approved to expand its development 165 acres, creating an economic sub-district that could potentially result in about 2,000 jobs. • The decision is not final and still awaits the approval of the Florida Department of Community Affairs. Source: Naples Daily News, April 9, 2008

Collier, Lee foreclosures continue to soar • In June, the number of foreclosures in Collier increased to 716, making the number of foreclosures in the first half of this year, 3,827, more than all of the foreclosures in 2007, 3,266. These numbers have set a new record for the number of foreclosures in Collier County. • Lee County’s total foreclosures for this past fiscal year, totaling 17,417, is more than quadruple the number of foreclosures from the previous fiscal year. Source: Naples Daily News, July 1, 2008 Solar energy heats up with FGCU, FPL plans • A 16-acre solar field is being built on the Florida Gulf Coast University campus with the help of $8.5 million in grants approved by the state legislature. It will be one of the biggest solar projects for a university in the country. • The solar array will generate approximately 21 percent of FGCU’s current overall energy usage. • Florida Power and Light (FPL) is also contributing to alternative energy generation by building solar collectors that will generate 110 megawatts of energy in DeSoto County. Source: Naples Daily News, June 25, 2008

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Nap l e s â&#x20AC;&#x201C; M a r c o I s l a n d Naples MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate 8.0% 7.0%

(percent)

14000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

11000.0 10000.0 9000.0 8000.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate

7000.0

(Thousands)

25.0%

120.0

15.0%

110.0

10.0%

100.0

5.0%

90.0

0.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Naples Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Real Personal Income 20.0%

2.5

13000.0

130.0

80.0

Naples Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Payroll Employment 140.0

1.5

12000.0

6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0%

0.5

-5.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Personal Income

Nap l e s â&#x20AC;&#x201C; M a r c o I s l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

September 2008 Forecast*

2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

20.7 4.7 6.1 14.6

20.9 4.4 6.2 14.7

21.1 4.6 6.3 14.9

21.4 3.7 6.3 15

21.9 5.6 6.5 15.4

22.2 6.5 6.6 15.7

22.6 7.1 6.7 15.9

23 7.4 6.8 16.2

23.3 6.7 6.9 16.4

23.6 6.4 7 16.7

24 6.1 7.1 16.9

24.4 6.1 7.2 17.2

24.7 6.2 7.3 17.4

25.1 6.2 7.5 17.7

16.9 0.5

16.9 0.4

17 1.1

17.2 1.3

17.6 4.2

17.8 5.6

18 6.2

18.3 6.1

18.5 5.4

18.7 5.2

18.9 5

19.2 4.8

19.4 4.8

19.6 4.7

64.9 52.8

65.3 52.8

65.9 53.1

66.7 53.7

67.9 54.5

68.9 55.1

69.7 55.7

70.5 56.2

71.2 56.6

71.9 56.9

72.6 57.3

73.2 57.6

73.9 57.9

74.6 58.2

47.7 3.3

48.2 3.7

48.6 3.4

49 3.8

49.4 3.6

49.8 3.5

50.3 3.5

50.7 3.5

51.1 3.4

51.5 3.3

52 3.4

52.4 3.4

52.9 3.5

53.4 3.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

126.9 -2.4

127.5 -0.9

128.1 0.1

129.1 1.7

130 2.4

131 2.7

132.1 3.1

133 3

133.9 3.1

134.7 2.8

135.6 2.7

136.8 2.9

137.9 3

138.9 3.2

3.1 -2.1

3.1 -3.4

3.1 -4

3.1 -3.3

3 -3.1

3 -2.6

3 -2

3 -1

3 0.2

3 1

3.1 1.4

3.1 1.5

3.1 1.7

123.8 -2.4

124.4 -0.8

125 0.2

126 1.8

126.9 2.6

128 2.9

129 3.2

129.9 3.1

130.9 3.1

131.6 2.8

132.6 2.7

133.7 2.9

134.8 3

135.8 3.2

16.1 -12.4

16 -9.1

15.9 -6.4

15.8 -3.8

16 -0.8

16.2 1.4

16.5 3.4

16.5 4.5

16.7 4.2

16.7 2.7

16.8 2.2

17.1 3.1

17.3 3.9

17.5 5.3

22.9 -5.1

22.8 -3.7

22.8 -3.1

22.9 -0.2

23.1 1.2

23.4 2.4

23.6 3.4

23.8 3.6

24 3.5

24.1 3

24.2 2.8

24.3 2.3

24.4 2

24.5 1.9

3.5 18.1 1.5

3.5 18.3 1.5

3.6 18.5 1.5

3.6 18.7 1.5

3.7 18.9 1.5

3.7 19.1 1.5

3.7 19.3 1.6

3.7 19.4 1.6

3.8 19.4 1.6

3.9 19.4 1.7

3.9 19.5 1.7

1.7 -6.1

1.7 -5.5

1.7 -3.6

1.7 -1.1

1.7 0.2

1.7 -0.1

1.7 0.5

1.7 1.8

1.7 2

1.7 2.6

1.8 2.9

1.8 3.1

1.8 3.7

8 0

8.1 2.8

8.2 1.7

8.3 3.1

8.4 4.2

8.5 4.3

8.6 4.2

8.6 3.9

8.7 3.4

8.7 3

8.8 2.9

8.9 3

9 3.3

9 3.2

15.5 -1.3

15.7 -0.2

15.9 1.6

16.2 4.3

16.4 5.8

16.5 5.2

16.7 4.7

16.9 4.3

17.1 4.4

17.2 4.5

17.5 4.9

17.8 5.4

18.1 5.7

18.3 5.9

16.6 2

16.8 3.4

17 4.6

17.3 5.1

17.5 5.1

17.6 4.8

17.7 4.3

17.9 3.6

18 3.3

18.1 3.2

18.3 2.9

18.4 2.6

18.5 2.7

18.6 2.8

23.1 2.1

23.3 2.8

23.5 2.3

23.7 2.9

23.7 2.6

23.8 2.1

23.9 1.7

24 1.6

24.2 1.8

24.3 2

24.5 2.4

24.7 2.6

24.8 2.7

25 2.8

5.7 -1.8

5.7 -1

5.7 1.3

5.8 1.7

5.8 1.6

5.8 1.8

5.8 1.7

5.9 1.7

5.9 2

5.9 2.2

6 2.2

6 2

6 1.7

6 1.6

0.6 -13.4

0.6 -13.1

0.6 -4.7

0.6 -0.4

0.6 3

0.6 7

0.7 28.1

0.6 4.4

0.7 8.5

0.7 4.2

0.6 -15.5

0.6 -0.1

0.6 -7.3

0.6 -6.9

13.5 1.7

13.6 2.5

13.7 2.7

13.7 2.8

13.8 1.7

13.8 1.5

13.9 1.4

13.9 1.6

14 1.8

14.1 1.9

14.1 2

14.2 2

14.3 2

14.4 2.2

12135.3

12238.4

12296.7

12409.4

12486.1

12589.4

12701

12811.3

12940.4

13043.2

13168.3

13327.3

13488.1

13627.2

319 0.8

319.6 0.8

320.2 0.7

320.9 0.8

321.8 0.9

322.9 1

324.2 1.2

325.6 1.5

327.1 1.7

328.8 1.8

330.6 2

332.7 2.2

334.7 2.3

336.8 2.4

151.7 0.4

152.4 1.1

153.1 1.8

154 2.1

154.8 2.1

155.7 2.1

156.6 2.3

157.6 2.4

158.7 2.5

159.7 2.6

160.8 2.7

161.9 2.7

163 2.7

164.1 2.7

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

7.6

7.7

7.9

7.8

7.7

7.6

7.5

1308 731 577

1753 845 908

2108 928 1180

2364 1124 1239

2342 1256 1086

2488 1445 1044

2727 1675 1051

2956 1890 1066

3236 2101 1135

3514 2298 1217

3776 2527 1249

4042 2752 1290

4268 2905 1363

4474 3000 1474

*Quarterly an an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Nap l e s â&#x20AC;&#x201C; M a r c o I s l a n d

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

September 2008 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

11.1 10.5 3.7 7.3

11.6 4.9 4 7.6

12.3 5.9 4.4 7.9

14.8 20.8 4.9 9.9

16.6 11.9 5.5 11.2

18 8.3 5.8 12.2

19.5 8.5 6 13.5

20.6 5.5 6.1 14.5

21.6 5.1 6.4 15.2

23.1 6.9 6.8 16.3

24.6 6.2 7.3 17.3

10.8 8.2

11.2 3.5

11.6 3.8

13.7 17.6

14.9 8.7

15.7 5.4

16.6 5.8

16.9 1.7

17.4 3

18.4 5.7

19.3 4.8

41.6 40.8

42 40.5

42.9 40.6

50 46.1

54.1 48.5

57.4 50.1

61.7 52.5

64.6 53

67.3 54.1

70.9 56.3

73.6 57.8

35 3.3

35.6 1.6

38.7 8.6

40.4 4.5

42.3 4.7

43 1.6

45.3 5.5

47.5 4.7

49.2 3.6

50.9 3.5

52.7 3.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

106.5 6.7

110.8 4.1

114.1 3

120.6 5.7

128.3 6.3

135 5.2

131.6 -2.6

127.3 -3.2

129.5 1.7

133.4 3

137.3 2.9

3.2 9.4

3.1 -3.4

2.9 -5.3

3.1 5.9

3.2 3

3.3 3.6

3.3 -1.8

3.1 -3.4

3 -3.2

3 -0.5

3.1 1.6

103.3 6.6

107.7 4.3

111.2 3.3

117.5 5.7

125.1 6.4

131.7 5.3

128.3 -2.6

124.2 -3.2

126.5 1.8

130.4 3.1

134.2 3

14.6 10.7

14.7 1

14.6 -0.8

16.8 14.8

20.3 21.3

23.9 17.6

19.6 -17.9

16.4 -16.4

16 -2.5

16.6 3.7

17.2 3.6

22.2 7.2

22.7 2.1

22.4 -1.3

23 2.4

24.3 5.6

24.5 0.9

24.1 -1.7

23.1 -4.2

23.1 0.1

23.8 3.4

24.4 2.2

3 17.5 1.8

3.3 17.6 1.9

3.1 17.7 1.7

3.3 18 1.7

3.4 19.1 1.8

3.2 19.5 1.7

3.4 19.1 1.6

3.5 18.3 1.5

3.6 18.8 1.5

3.8 19.4 1.6

3.9 19.5 1.7

1.8 0.5

1.8 -0.9

1.7 -3.3

1.8 7.3

1.8 0

1.9 3.2

1.8 -3.2

1.7 -5.5

1.7 -1.2

1.7 1.7

1.8 3.3

6.2 4.8

6.5 4.5

6.7 2.6

7.1 5.9

7.7 9.3

8.2 5.7

8.1 -0.6

8.1 -0.3

8.3 3.3

8.6 3.6

8.9 3.1

12.5 3.5

13.4 7.1

16.1 19.8

17.4 8.1

16.3 -6.5

16.8 3.2

15.9 -5.3

15.6 -2.1

16.2 4.2

17 4.5

17.9 5.5

12.1 9.7

12.8 5.1

13.2 3.3

13.4 1.9

14.5 7.9

15.4 6

16.2 5.3

16.5 2.1

17.3 4.9

18 3.6

18.5 2.8

17.4 4

18.3 5.3

18.5 1.2

20.1 8.2

21.5 7.4

21.9 1.8

22.8 4.1

23.1 1.3

23.7 2.5

24.1 1.8

24.7 2.6

5.1 4.6

5.5 7

5.5 -0.3

5.4 -1.4

5.7 5.1

5.8 1.9

5.8 1.1

5.7 -2.5

5.8 1.6

5.9 1.9

6 1.9

0.7 -4.5

0.7 0

0.7 0.1

0.7 0

0.6 -13.7

0.6 1.2

0.7 11

0.6 -7.8

10.6 9.1

11.3 7.1

11.8 4.5

11.9 1

12.3 2.9

12.7 3.4

13.2 4.3

13.5 1.5

13.7 2.2

14 1.7

14.3 2

9640.3

9430.8

10211.7

11034.5

12220.3

12930.7

12479.5

12207.1

12445.4

12874

13402.7

265.8 4

276.7 4.1

286.5 3.6

297.1 3.7

307.3 3.4

313.3 2

316.2 0.9

318.8 0.8

321.5 0.8

326.4 1.5

333.7 2.2

123.6 6.5

129.6 4.9

133.1 2.7

138.4 3.9

144.6 4.5

152.2 5.3

152.2 0

151.3 -0.6

154.4 2

158.2 2.4

162.4 2.7

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.1

5.1

4.9

4.2

3.5

3.1

4.3

6.8

7.9

7.7

7.5

7433 4083 3349

7078 4279 2799

5334 3403 1932

6101 4018 2083

5724 4038 1686

4256 3050 1206

1959 1160 799

1361 762 599

2326 1188 1137

3108 1991 1117

4140 2796 1344

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

Oca l a

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

Comprised of Marion County only, the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area in the center of the state. The second-largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area.

The Ocala MSA has the highest population growth rate in the state, at 2.6 percent. Housing starts are expected to average 19.7 percent annually, one of the highest figures in the state. Personal income growth is expected to average 5.4 percent annually, while employment growth is expected to average 1.1 percent annually. On the downside, Ocala has the lowest per capita income and annual wage levels, averaging 24.8 and 35.9 each year, respectively.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 324,857 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 136,167 in January 2008 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 5.7% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 7,800 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Marion County School Board – 6,000+ employees • Munroe Regional Medical Center – 2,500 employees • Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – 2,385 employees • State of Florida (all departments) – 2,263 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,450 employees • Marion County Board of County Commissioners – 1,342 employees • Ocala Regional Medical Center – 1,301 employees

Education and health services is expected to be the fastest growing sector in Ocala, averaging annual growth of 3.3 percent, followed by professional and business services, which will grow at 2.8 percent annually. Ocala also has the highest unemployment rate in Florida, averaging 8.1 percent a year.

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Marion school enrollment declines by 594 students • Marion County Public Schools enrolled 594 less students this year than in the 2007-2008 school year, equating to a $2.6 million reduction in state funding, or $4,500 per student. • Enrollment in middle and elementary schools in the district plunged with a loss of 863 students, while high school enrollment increased by 269 students. • Eighteen certified substitutes lost their jobs because of the decline in enrollment. Source: The Ocala Star Banner, September 10, 2008

• Emergency One, Inc. – 1,274 employees

Water agency putting limits on Marion • The Southwest Florida Water Management • AT&T – 1,000 employees District, also known as Swiftmud, will now require all water utilities in its district to limit water Source: Ocala/Marion Economic Development Council consumption to 150 gallons-per-person, per day, including Marion County west of I-75. • City of Ocala – 1,244 employees

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Oca l a

• Steps already taken to reduce water consumption include a Swiftmud-instituted watering restriction one day a week and a tiered price structure imposed by the county that makes overconsumption expensive. • The water utilities have 10 years to meet the new limits. Source: The Ocala Star Banner, September 5, 2008 Merillat will idle Ocala plant, lay off 279 workers • Merillat, a cabinet manufacturer, will idle its Ocala factory for an unspecified amount of time, laying off 279 workers by the end of October. • The company behind Merillat, Masco Builder Cabinet Group, reported that the shutdown is in response to the recent slowdown in new home construction, and reopening the facilities is dependent upon improved market conditions. • The 261 hourly workers and 18 salaried workers being laid off are in addition to 75 workers who were laid off in January. Source: The Ocala Star Banner, August 27, 2008 Methane-energy plant under construction at landfill • G2 Energy has started construction at the Baseline Landfill in Marion County on a plant that will convert methane gas to energy. • The company will generate electricity from the methane gas that organic waste exudes as it decomposes. • Marion County is expected to make $150,000 to $180,000 a year from G2 Energy. Source: The Ocala Star Banner, August 13, 2008

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

Federal Signal signs deal to sell E-One • Federal Signal Corp. sold fire truck manufacturer Emergency One, Inc. to American Industrial Partners, a private equity firm, for $20 million. • Federal Signal put the operation up for sale after E-One lost $24.6 million in 2007. • The day of the sale, AIP announced plans to lay off at least 200 employees. Source: The Ocala Star Banner, August 6, 2008

Oca l a Ocala MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate 9.0% 8.0%

(percent)

0.6

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Ocala Real Gross Metro Product 7000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

6500.0

5500.0 5000.0 4500.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate

4000.0

Ocala Payroll Employment 115.0 110.0 105.0 100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 80.0 75.0

0.8

6000.0

7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0%

0.4

(Thousands)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Gross Metro Product

Ocala Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Ocala Payroll Employment

-2.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Oca l a

Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL

September 2008 Forecast*

2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

10 4 3.6 6.4

10.1 4.7 3.6 6.5

10.3 4.9 3.7 6.6

10.4 4.3 3.7 6.7

10.6 5.5 3.8 6.8

10.7 5.9 3.8 6.9

10.8 5.8 3.9 7

11 5.7 3.9 7.1

11.2 5.7 4 7.2

11.3 5.9 4 7.3

11.5 6.1 4.1 7.4

11.7 6.1 4.2 7.5

11.9 6.1 4.2 7.6

12 6.1 4.3 7.8

8.2 -0.2

8.2 0.7

8.3 1.4

8.4 1.9

8.5 4.1

8.6 4.9

8.7 5

8.8 4.5

8.9 4.5

9 4.7

9.1 4.9

9.2 4.9

9.3 4.8

9.4 4.5

29.6 24.1

29.7 24

29.9 24.1

30.2 24.3

30.5 24.5

30.7 24.6

30.9 24.7

31.2 24.8

31.5 25

31.8 25.2

32.1 25.3

32.4 25.5

32.7 25.6

33.1 25.8

34.3 1.5

34.6 3.6

34.9 3.3

35.2 3.6

35.5 3.4

35.8 3.3

36.1 3.3

36.4 3.4

36.6 3.3

36.9 3.2

37.3 3.2

37.6 3.3

37.9 3.4

38.2 3.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

104.4 -0.9

104.5 -1

104.7 -0.7

105.3 0.7

105.9 1.4

106.5 1.9

107.2 2.5

107.8 2.4

108.4 2.4

108.9 2.2

109.5 2.1

110.1 2.2

110.8 2.1

111.4 2.3

9 -5.2

8.8 -5.9

8.8 -5.7

8.7 -4

8.7 -3.3

8.7 -2

8.7 -1.2

8.7 -0.6

8.7 0

8.7 0.2

8.7 0.3

8.7 0.1

8.7 0.2

8.7 0.3

95.4 -0.5

95.7 -0.5

95.9 -0.2

96.5 1.2

97.2 1.9

97.9 2.3

98.6 2.8

99.1 2.7

99.8 2.6

100.2 2.4

100.8 2.2

101.4 2.3

102.1 2.3

102.6 2.4

9.5 -9

9.4 -10

9.2 -9.4

9.2 -5.2

9.3 -2

9.4 0.4

9.5 3.2

9.5 4

9.6 3.5

9.6 2.3

9.7 2.1

9.8 2.9

10 3.6

10.1 4.6

23.5 -1.5

23.4 -0.9

23.3 -1.9

23.4 -0.8

23.6 0.6

23.8 1.9

24 3

24.2 3.3

24.4 3.1

24.5 2.7

24.6 2.5

24.7 2

24.8 1.7

24.9 1.7

4.4 16.2 3

4.4 16.3 3

4.4 16.5 3

4.4 16.7 3

4.5 16.9 3.1

4.5 17 3.1

4.5 17.1 3.1

4.6 17.2 3.2

4.6 17.2 3.3

4.7 17.2 3.3

4.7 17.2 3.4

4.8 17.2 3.4

1.8 -4.4

1.8 -3.8

1.8 -4.6

1.8 -2.2

1.8 -0.4

1.8 -0.1

1.8 0.5

1.8 1.3

1.9 1.6

1.9 1.9

1.9 2.1

1.9 2.5

1.9 2.4

5.9 -0.2

5.9 1.5

6 2.1

6 2.2

6.1 3.2

6.1 3.5

6.2 3.4

6.2 3.2

6.3 2.9

6.3 2.5

6.3 2.4

6.4 2.5

6.4 2.8

6.5 2.7

8.4 -1.4

8.5 -0.8

8.6 2.2

8.7 3.6

8.8 5.2

8.9 4.7

9 4.5

9.1 4.2

9.2 4.4

9.3 4.4

9.4 4.9

9.6 5.3

9.7 5.6

9.8 5.7

13.5 3.2

13.7 3.3

13.8 3.8

14.1 5.4

14.2 5.2

14.3 4.7

14.4 4.2

14.6 3.4

14.7 3

14.7 2.9

14.8 2.7

14.9 2.3

15 2.3

15.1 2.3

10.7 1.5

10.8 1.3

10.9 2

11 2.7

11 2.5

11 2

11 1.6

11.1 1.4

11.1 1.5

11.2 1.7

11.3 2

11.4 2.3

11.5 2.4

4.5 3

4.5 2.4

4.5 2.2

4.6 1.2

4.6 1.1

4.6 1.5

4.6 1.4

4.7 1.7

4.7 1.8

4.7 1.5

4.7 1.1

4.7 1

0.7 0.6

0.7 0.5

0.7 -4.1

0.7 -0.7

0.7 2

0.7 5.6

0.8 23.2

0.7 1.5

0.8 6.5

0.8 3.2

0.7 -13.9

0.7 1.3

0.7 -6.3

0.7 -6.4

16.9 2

17 0.6

17 1.2

17.1 2.2

17.1 1

17.1 0.7

17.2 0.7

17.2 0.9

17.3 1.1

17.3 1.2

17.4 1.2

17.5 1.2

17.5 1.3

6266.4

6301.3

6318.4

6373

6408.6

6455.7

6505.5

6552.5

6606.8

6650.9

6702.2

6767.8

6834.8

6892.8

338.1 3.2

340.4 3.1

342.6 2.9

344.8 2.8

347 2.6

349.1 2.6

351.2 2.5

353.3 2.5

355.2 2.4

357 2.3

358.8 2.2

360.5 2.1

362.3 2

364.1 2

138.7 2.6

139.2 1.7

139.7 1.8

140.2 1.5

140.7 1.4

141.2 1.4

141.8 1.5

142.5 1.6

143.1 1.8

143.8 1.8

144.5 1.9

145.2 1.9

145.9 1.9

146.6 2

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

8.1

8.3

8.4

8.6

8.5

8.4

8.3

8.2

8.1

1650 1545 105

1796 1671 124

1905 1759 145

2234 2084 149

2438 2307 131

2734 2609 125

3060 2935 125

3346 3221 125

3639 3505 134

3934 3794 140

4275 4134 141

4596 4454 142

4828 4682 145

4960 4813 147

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

Oca l a

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

September 2008 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

6.2 4.5 2.3 3.8

6.3 2.2 2.4 3.9

6.7 6.9 2.7 4.1

7.5 10.9 2.9 4.6

8.4 12.1 3.2 5.2

9.1 9 3.5 5.6

9.6 4.8 3.6 6

10 4.3 3.6 6.4

10.5 5.2 3.8 6.7

11.1 5.8 4 7.1

11.8 6.1 4.2 7.6

6 2.3

6.1 0.8

6.4 4.8

6.9 8.1

7.5 8.9

8 6.1

8.1 2.2

8.2 0.6

8.4 3.1

8.8 4.7

9.2 4.8

23.2 22.7

23.1 22.3

24 22.7

25.6 23.6

27.6 24.7

28.9 25.2

29.3 24.9

29.6 24.3

30.3 24.4

31.3 24.9

32.6 25.6

26.9 4

28.1 4.4

29.7 5.9

30.5 2.6

31.8 4.2

33.4 5.1

33.5 0.4

34.2 2

35.3 3.4

36.5 3.3

37.7 3.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

85.8 -0.2

86.1 0.4

89 3.4

95 6.7

100.6 5.9

105.2 4.6

105.9 0.6

104.7 -1.1

105.6 0.8

108.1 2.4

110.4 2.2

9.9 -10.7

9.3 -5.5

9.2 -1

9.6 4

9.9 3.6

9.9 -0.7

9.5 -3.5

9 -5.2

8.7 -3.8

8.7 -0.4

8.7 0.2

75.9 1.3

76.8 1.1

79.8 3.9

85.4 7

90.7 6.2

95.4 5.2

96.3 1

95.7 -0.7

96.9 1.3

99.4 2.6

101.7 2.3

6.1 -2.6

6.4 4.9

7.6 17.5

9 18.7

9.8 9.7

11.7 18.6

10.9 -7

9.7 -11

9.3 -4.2

9.6 3.2

9.9 3.3

20.7 1.2

20.5 -0.7

20.9 2

21.7 3.7

22.9 5.6

23.4 1.9

23.8 1.9

23.6 -0.9

23.6 0

24.3 3

24.7 2

3 14.9 2.8

3.1 14.8 2.6

3.3 15.1 2.5

3.7 15.6 2.5

3.9 16.3 2.7

4.2 16.4 2.7

4.4 16.5 2.9

4.4 16.2 3

4.4 16.8 3.1

4.6 17.2 3.2

4.7 17.2 3.4

2.4 -6.5

2.3 -4.5

2.2 -5.1

2.2 1.2

2.2 -2.3

2.1 -1.9

2 -7.5

1.9 -5

1.8 -1.9

1.8 1.2

1.9 2.2

3.9 1.7

4 1.1

4.3 9.2

4.9 12.5

5.4 11.1

5.7 6

5.9 1.9

5.9 0.6

6.1 2.7

6.2 3

6.4 2.6

7.2 -6.4

7.2 0.5

7.6 4.9

8.2 7.5

8.9 9.5

9.3 4.1

8.7 -7.1

8.4 -2.6

8.8 3.9

9.1 4.4

9.6 5.4

9.2 7.7

9.7 5.3

10.5 8.5

11.1 6

12 7.6

12.7 5.8

13.1 3.5

13.5 2.7

14.1 4.7

14.6 3.4

14.9 2.4

7.6 6.1

7.6 0.3

7.7 0.9

8.7 13.1

9.2 6.3

9.7 4.8

10.5 8.4

10.7 2

11 2.3

11.1 1.5

11.4 2.2

3.5 1.9

3.6 3.6

3.6 -1.6

3.8 7.7

4 5.2

4.1 1.9

4.3 5.9

4.5 3.5

4.6 1.5

4.6 1.6

4.7 1.4

0.7 -18.9

0.7 2.3

0.7 -2.3

0.7 0

0.7 0.1

0.7 0

0.7 0.3

0.7 0.7

0.8 8.4

0.7 -6.6

14.6 3.5

14.7 0.7

14.7 0.4

15.1 2.4

15.4 2.3

16 3.6

16.6 3.6

16.9 1.8

17.1 1.3

17.2 1

17.4 1.2

4606.9

4765.9

5166.4

5487.5

6036.8

6370.9

6388.3

6346.6

6388.9

6578.9

6799.4

265.5 1.8

272.4 2.6

280.7 3.1

291.5 3.8

303.4 4.1

315.5 4

326.2 3.4

336.7 3.2

345.9 2.7

354.2 2.4

361.4 2

109.3 0.1

111.7 2.2

114.3 2.3

119.2 4.3

124.3 4.2

130.8 5.3

135.3 3.5

138.3 2.2

140.4 1.5

142.8 1.7

145.5 1.9

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.9

5.4

4.6

3.9

3.6

4.6

7.3

8.5

8.3

8.1

3223 3199 25

5741 5258 484

6723 5985 738

5087 4998 88

7169 6614 555

7218 6862 357

3109 2795 314

1630 1558 72

2327 2190 137

3495 3364 131

4665 4521 144

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O r l a n d o – K i s s immee

P r o fi l e s The Orlando–Kissimmee MSA is comprised of Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole counties. Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World and numerous other Disney enterprises, Universal Studios, and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic, the Orlando Predators arena football team, and Atlanta Braves spring training at Disney’s Wide World of Sports. The University of Central Florida, the nation’s seventh-largest university, and many other places of higher education also reside in the MSA. Quick Facts: • MSA population estimate of 2,032,496 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Lake County population estimate of 301,059 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Orange County population estimate of 1,066,113 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Osceola County population estimate of 255,815 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Seminole County population estimate of 409,509 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force for the MSA of 1,096,524 in January 2008 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 4.3% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 46,649 unemployed people in the Orlando MSA. (Florida Research and Economic Database)

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

Top Area Employers: • Walt Disney Co. – 59,500 employees • Orange County Public Schools – 24,063 employees • Florida Hospital (Adventist Health System) – 16,002 employees • Publix Super Markets Inc. – 15,606 employees • Universal Orlando – 13,000 employees • Orlando Regional Healthcare System – 10,000 employees • University of Central Florida – 8,946 employees • Lockheed Martin Corporation – 7,200 employees • Seminole County Public Schools – 7,000 employees • Marriott International Inc. – 6,312 employees Sources: Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission & Orange County Library System

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s The Orlando–Kissimmee area is expected to show strong growth in the next few years. Personal income is expected to grow 5.6 percent on average each year, while employment growth is forecasted to average 2.2 percent annually, the highest in the state. Per capita income and average annual wage levels are expected to be 29.8 and 43.1, respectively. Gross metro product is expected to average 89,314.7. In the Orlando area, the top sectors are expected to be professional and business services, and education and health services, sectors that will average annual growth rates of 5.2 and 3.8 percent, respectively. Unemployment is expected to average 5.8 percent each year.

O r l a n d o – K i s s immee

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Rollins College bequest will top $100 million— even more than expected • Rollins College has received its largest donation in its history. The donation, from philanthropist George D. Cornell, has topped at $105.5 million. • Half of the donation is being set aside for scholarships such as the Cornell Scholars Program, faculty development, and endowed faculty chairs. • Fifty million dollars will be used for an “initiative fund” for short-term projects and for the start-up of longer-term projects, such as the Winter Park Institute. Source: Orlando Sentinel, August 23, 2008 More commercial vacancy signs go up south of S.R. 408 • There has been a “dramatic slowdown” in the sale and leasing of the 106 properties south of highway 408. • Vacancies have gone up more than 50 percent than this time last year. The vacancy rate is currently at 14.4 percent. • There has been only one new building— Southridge VIII on Commerce Park Drive—built in the area during a three-month dry spell. Source: Orlando Sentinel, August 4, 2008

Budget crisis slams Orlando • Orlando will be suffering an approximately $30-million budget shortfall, brought on by voterapproved and state mandated tax cuts, as well as a difficult economy. • Possible cuts to the budget will include cutting police jobs, limiting the number of children in after-school programs, shutting down community centers, and more. • Officials are in a panic because there is no “fat” to cut in the budget—just the “nuts and bolts” of what makes the city work. Source: Orlando Sentinel, July 15, 2008 The party’s over at Pleasure Island: Disney to shut down six nightclubs • Disney will be shutting down six Pleasure Island nightclubs in an attempt to make the attraction more family friendly; more restaurants and shops will take their places. • This is an unusual move, as the nightclubs had been successful and were attributed to the decline in business for Downtown Orlando’s night life. • Downtown Orlando developers, especially Church Street businesses, are hoping that these closures will bring more business back to their nightclubs and restaurants. Source: Orlando Sentinel, June 28, 2008

International Drive paying the price for not keeping up with tourism trends • Disney has adapted to the changing trends in tourism—more timeshares and pedestrian-friendly areas—however, I-Drive has come up short. • The expansion of the Orange County Convention Center has concentrated the wealth to that specific corridor of I-Drive. • Because of these threats, International Drive has been losing tourists in droves, limiting the clientele to tourists on a budget—an ever-shrinking market. Source: Orlando Sentinel, July 24, 2008

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O r l a n d o â&#x20AC;&#x201C; K i s s immee Orlando - Kissimee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate (percent)

7.0%

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.4

1.6

Orlando Real Gross Metro Product 100000.0

5.0%

80000.0

4.0%

70000.0

3.0%

(Millions 2000 $)

60000.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate

50000.0

Orlando Payroll Employment 1300.0

(Thousands)

Orlando Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

1100.0

4.0%

1000.0

2.0%

900.0 800.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Gross Metro Product

8.0%

1200.0

1.2

90000.0

6.0%

2.0%

0.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 OrlandoPayroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

-2.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Personal Income

O r l a n d o â&#x20AC;&#x201C; K i s s immee

Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

September 2008 Forecast*

2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

73 4 45.6 27.4

73.9 4.8 46.3 27.6

74.9 4.8 46.8 28

76 4.5 47.5 28.4

77.1 5.6 48.3 28.8

78.2 5.9 49.1 29.2

79.4 6 49.8 29.5

80.6 6.1 50.6 30

81.8 6.1 51.4 30.4

83 6.1 52.2 30.8

84.3 6.2 53.1 31.2

85.6 6.3 53.9 31.7

87 6.4 54.8 32.2

88.4 6.5 55.7 32.7

59.5 -0.1

59.7 0.8

60.3 1.3

61.2 2.2

61.9 4.2

62.7 5

63.4 5.1

64.1 4.8

64.9 4.8

65.7 4.9

66.6 5.1

67.4 5

68.2 5

68.9 4.9

35.2 28.6

35.5 28.6

35.8 28.8

36.2 29.2

36.6 29.4

37 29.6

37.3 29.8

37.7 30

38.1 30.2

38.5 30.5

38.9 30.7

39.3 30.9

39.7 31.1

40.1 31.3

41.2 2.7

41.6 3.7

41.9 3.3

42.2 3.5

42.6 3.4

42.9 3.3

43.3 3.2

43.6 3.2

44 3.2

44.3 3.2

44.7 3.3

45.1 3.4

45.4 3.4

45.8 3.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

1103.8 0.4

1108.7 0.8

1113.5 0.9

1122.1 1.6

1129.8 2.4

1138.8 2.7

1147.7 3.1

1157.1 3.1

1165.9 3.2

1173.8 3.1

1183.2 3.1

1193.2 3.1

1203.1 3.2

1212.2 3.3

41.4 -3.2

40.8 -3.8

40.5 -4.2

40.4 -3.5

40.2 -2.8

40.2 -1.5

40.2 -0.7

40.3 -0.1

40.4 0.5

40.5 0.7

40.6 0.8

40.6 0.7

40.8 0.8

40.9 1

1062.4 0.6

1067.9 1

1073 1.1

1081.7 1.8

1089.5 2.6

1098.6 2.9

1107.4 3.2

1116.7 3.2

1125.5 3.3

1133.3 3.2

1142.7 3.2

1152.6 3.2

1162.3 3.3

1171.3 3.4

73.9 -7.7

73.3 -5.4

72.5 -4.6

72.1 -4.8

72.8 -1.4

73.7 0.6

74.5 2.8

74.7 3.7

75.1 3.2

75.1 1.9

75.7 1.6

76.6 2.4

77.5 3.1

78.2 4.2

203.3 0

202.2 -0.7

201.4 -1.5

202.2 -0.6

203.7 0.2

205.5 1.6

207 2.8

208.7 3.2

210 3.1

210.9 2.7

212.1 2.5

212.8 2

213.7 1.8

214.6 1.8

48.5 124.1 32.2

49 125.2 32.5

48.9 126.3 32.6

49.3 128.2 32.9

49.7 129.4 33.2

50 130.8 33.4

50.3 131.4 33.6

50.7 131.8 33.9

51.2 131.9 34.3

51.5 131.8 34.6

51.8 131.7 34.8

52.2 131.4 35.1

52.5 131.4 35.3

52.8 131.5 35.5

26.6 -1.2

26.5 -1.9

26.4 -2.2

26.1 -2.6

26 -2.1

26 -1.9

26.1 -1.2

26.1 -0.2

26 0

26.1 0.5

26.3 0.9

26.4 1.3

26.5 2

26.7 2.1

67.8 0.8

67.9 1.2

68.2 1.2

68.9 1.3

69.5 2.4

70.1 3.2

70.7 3.7

71.3 3.6

71.9 3.4

72.5 3.4

73.1 3.3

73.7 3.3

74.3 3.5

74.9 3.3

198.7 0.1

202.4 1

205.7 2.2

209.7 5.5

212.6 7

216.2 6.8

219.5 6.7

223.5 6.6

227.7 7.1

231.4 7

235.6 7.3

240.8 7.7

245.6 7.8

249.6 7.9

116 3.8

117.5 5.1

119 5.2

121.1 5

122.5 5.6

123.5 5.1

124.3 4.5

125.5 3.6

126.5 3.2

127.3 3.1

128.2 3.1

129 2.8

130 2.8

130.7 2.7

196.6 2.4

197.8 2

198.9 2

199.8 1.8

200 1.8

200.6 1.4

201.1 1.1

201.8 1

202.8 1.4

203.8 1.6

204.8 1.8

205.8 1.9

206.6 1.9

207.6 1.9

59.5 3.2

59.5 2.6

59.8 2.5

60.3 1.8

60.5 1.8

60.8 2.2

61.1 2.2

61.5 2.1

61.9 2.3

62.3 2.4

62.6 2.4

62.8 2.1

62.9 1.6

63.2 1.5

11.8 3.3

11.8 4.4

11.8 0.8

11.8 0

11.9 0.4

11.9 0.7

12.4 4.6

12.5 5.4

12 1.7

11.9 0.1

11.9 -3.7

11.9 -4.5

11.9 -0.9

12 0.4

108.3 0.5

108.9 2.1

109.4 2.4

109.6 2.3

110 1.6

110.3 1.4

110.7 1.2

111.1 1.3

111.5 1.4

111.9 1.4

112.4 1.5

112.8 1.6

113.3 1.6

113.8 1.7

85309.7

85903.7

86239.1

86972.7

87446.4

88137.2

88844.8

89675.9

90518.3

91265

92164.9

93172.7

94215.7

95127.2

2075.4 1.7

2083.3 1.6

2090.8 1.6

2098.9 1.5

2107.5 1.5

2116.8 1.6

2126.4 1.7

2136.4 1.8

2146.5 1.9

2157.1 1.9

2168.3 2

2179.7 2

2191.3 2.1

2203.1 2.1

1118 2

1121.9 1.5

1125.1 1.3

1129 1.4

1133.3 1.4

1138 1.4

1143.5 1.6

1149.2 1.8

1154.9 1.9

1160.9 2

1167.8 2.1

1174.6 2.2

1181.5 2.3

1188.5 2.4

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

6.1

6.2

6.1

5.9

5.8

11657 6417 5240

12317 6737 5579

13112 6938 6174

14400 8135 6265

14599 8936 5663

15508 10150 5358

16745 11442 5303

17898 12643 5255

19155 13877 5278

20392 15067 5325

21695 16427 5268

23161 17855 5306

24280 18853 5426

24996 19414 5582

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O r l a n d o â&#x20AC;&#x201C; K i s s immee

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

September 2008 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

46.4 3.6 29.6 16.7

48.3 4.3 30.6 17.7

51.1 5.8 32.5 18.7

56 9.6 35.6 20.4

61.8 10.2 39.2 22.5

66.1 7.1 42.1 24

69.6 5.2 43.9 25.7

72.7 4.5 45.5 27.2

76.5 5.2 47.9 28.6

81.2 6.1 51 30.2

86.3 6.4 54.4 31.9

45.4 1.5

46.7 2.8

48.4 3.7

51.7 6.8

55.3 7.1

57.7 4.2

59.2 2.6

59.6 0.8

61.5 3.1

64.5 4.9

67.8 5

27 26.5

27.4 26.5

28.2 26.7

29.8 27.5

31.7 28.4

33 28.8

34.2 29.1

35.1 28.8

36.4 29.2

37.9 30.1

39.5 31

32.2 2.8

33.5 4

34.8 3.7

36.2 4.2

37.7 4.1

39 3.4

39.8 2.2

41 3

42.4 3.4

43.8 3.2

45.3 3.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

915.9 0.5

908.2 -0.8

929.2 2.3

978.8 5.3

1035.9 5.8

1076 3.9

1098.8 2.1

1105.1 0.6

1126 1.9

1161.1 3.1

1197.9 3.2

48.1 -5.7

44.4 -7.7

42.2 -5

43.1 2.3

44.3 2.7

43.5 -1.9

42.9 -1.4

41.6 -3

40.3 -3

40.4 0.1

40.7 0.8

867.8 0.9

863.8 -0.5

887 2.7

935.7 5.5

991.6 6

1032.5 4.1

1056 2.3

1063.5 0.7

1085.7 2.1

1120.7 3.2

1157.2 3.3

55.7 0.2

56.8 2

61.4 8

69.6 13.4

79.8 14.7

86.6 8.5

80.6 -6.9

74.7 -7.3

72.8 -2.6

74.9 2.9

77 2.8

178.2 -0.8

171.6 -3.7

173.4 1

181.7 4.8

192.8 6.1

198.8 3.1

202.7 2

203.4 0.3

203.2 -0.1

209.1 2.9

213.3 2

41.9 106.7 29.6

39.6 104.8 27.3

40 107.4 25.9

42 113.5 26.2

44.7 120.1 28

46.2 122.3 30.3

47.2 123.3 32.2

48.4 124 32.4

49.5 128.7 33

50.9 131.7 34.1

52.3 131.5 35.2

23 -2

22.5 -2

23.1 2.5

23.8 3

24.7 3.9

25.8 4.5

26.9 4.2

26.7 -0.7

26.1 -2.2

26.1 -0.2

26.5 1.6

54.2 -0.4

54.7 1

57.4 4.8

59.5 3.7

63.7 7.1

67 5.2

67.6 0.9

67.8 0.2

69.2 2

71.6 3.5

74 3.4

161.1 5.1

157.8 -2

158.9 0.7

170.2 7.2

184.4 8.3

192.4 4.3

198.9 3.4

200.3 0.7

211 5.4

225.5 6.9

242.9 7.7

87 1.7

89.4 2.7

93.6 4.7

97.3 4

102.2 5

107.5 5.2

111.4 3.7

115.5 3.7

121.5 5.2

125.9 3.6

129.5 2.8

170.6 -3.6

165 -3.3

169.9 3

179.4 5.6

183.6 2.4

186.9 1.8

192.3 2.9

196.4 2.1

199.8 1.7

202.4 1.3

206.2 1.9

42.4 7

45.4 6.9

45.7 0.7

47.5 4

49.9 4.9

53.4 7.1

57.6 7.8

59.1 2.8

60.4 2.1

61.7 2.3

62.9 1.9

10.3 0.7

10.4 1.2

11.1 7

11.2 1.2

11.8 5.2

11.4 -3.5

11.4 0.3

11.8 3.1

11.9 0.5

12.2 2.9

11.9 -2.3

85.3 4.5

90.2 5.8

92.6 2.6

95.4 3

98.7 3.5

102.7 4.1

106.5 3.6

107.8 1.3

109.8 1.9

111.3 1.3

113.1 1.6

63874.6

66573.2

70639.4

74748.3

80779.6

84561

86022.7

86313.7

87198.9

90076

93670.1

1714.8 3.1

1763.3 2.8

1813.2 2.8

1877.1 3.5

1946.6 3.7

2001.1 2.8

2036.9 1.8

2071 1.7

2103.5 1.6

2141.6 1.8

2185.6 2.1

910.2 1.7

918 0.9

934 1.7

966.1 3.4

1006.5 4.2

1049.6 4.3

1094 4.2

1115.9 2

1131.3 1.4

1152.1 1.8

1178.1 2.3

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.2

5.6

5.1

4.4

3.6

3.2

3.8

5.4

6.2

5.9

5.8

23955 17422 6533

25182 17509 7673

27607 22318 5289

32400 26196 6204

33906 26872 7034

30304 24310 5994

17987 12531 5456

12762 6731 6031

14405 8540 5865

18547 13257 5290

23533 18137 5396

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s v i l l e

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is comprised of Brevard County only. Typically known as “Florida’s Space Coast,” this area is home to the Kennedy Space Center. Located in the central part of Florida’s east coast, the region is home to Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, Patrick Air Force Base, and government contractors such as Harris Corporation. Like much of Florida, this area is growing fast; Port Canaveral is now a leading cruise-ship port.

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is expected to achieve relatively strong gains in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow on average 5.0 percent each year. Average annual wage growth is expected to average 3.0 percent. Per capita income levels should average 31.0, while average annual wage levels should average 46.2. Housing starts are expected to grow 18.7 percent.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 536,161 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 259,913 in January 2008 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 5.1% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 13,163 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Harris Corporation – 6,420 employees • United Space Alliance – 6,380 employees • Health First, Inc. – 6,220 employees • Wuesthoff Health Systems – 2,460 employees • Northrop Grumman Corporation – 2,000 employees • Space Gateway Support – 1,800 employees

Education and health services is expected to be the top sector in the area, averaging 3.0 percent growth annually. Professional and business services follow that sector, with average growth of 2.8 percent. Unemployment in the area should average 6.9 percent.

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s TRDA receives Fed grant • The Department of Defense has given the Technological Research and Development Authority $1.4 million to provide “commercialization assistance” to 20 companies in Florida. • Customized plans for each company will be developed in areas of business planning, government contracting, marketing, sales, and securing capital. • This grant has also been given to companies in New York. Source: Florida Today, August 19, 2008

• Parrish Medical Center – 1,250 employees

Titusville may freeze employees’ salaries • Titusville’s $131-million budget will lead to • Sea Ray Boats, Inc. – 1,150 employees many project cuts, salary freezes, and program • Mercedes Homes – 1,030 employees improvement cuts. Source: Economic Development Commission of Florida’s • Three major cost increases are rising energy costs, Space Coast increasingly expensive health care, and property insurance increases. • Rockwell Collins, Inc. – 1,250 employees

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s v i l l e

• Up to $1.2 million of capital-improvement projects and programs may make it back into the budget if the tentative operating tax is held up. Source: Florida Today, August 6, 2008 State official lauds port development • The Seaport Canaveral project is the largest investment in Port Canaveral’s history. • It is funded entirely by private investments, totaling $115 million, and includes 24 to 32 fuel tanks. • Port Canaveral has a $2.2-billion impact on Central Florida annually, according to the Canaveral Port Authority. Source: Florida Today, August 4, 2008 Crop may put Brevard in ethanol business • Sweet sorghum sugar crops have been successfully growing in Brevard, prompting talks of building an ethanol plant. • Ethanol demand in Florida has been on the rise. Governor Crist has already signed a bill that requires gasoline sold in the state to contain 10 percent ethanol by the end of 2010. • An ethanol plant would cost $30 million to build; it would create jobs and put Brevard in the highly lucrative ethanol market. Source: Florida Today, July 30, 2008

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

Cape now gets look for new NASA launch complex • NASA will consider putting its new commercial launch complex at one of the various abandoned Air Force launch pads. • NASA has decided against building the complex on unused land because of citizens’ concerns over harming the environment. • The state of Florida has given NASA $14.5 million to help build the complex. Source: Florida Today, July 15, 2008

P a l m B a y â&#x20AC;&#x201C; M e l b o u r n e â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Ti t u s v i l l e Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.5

(percent)

7.0%

16000.0

13000.0

4.0%

12000.0

3.0% 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 FL Unemployment Rate Palm Bay Unemployment Rate

11000.0 10000.0

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Payroll Employment (Thousands)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Gross Metro Product

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

8.0%

220.0

6.0%

210.0

4.0%

200.0

2.0%

190.0

0.0%

180.0 170.0

(Millions 2000 $)

14000.0

5.0%

230.0

2.5

15000.0

6.0%

2.0%

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Unemployment Rate 8.0%

1.5

-2.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Palm Bay Payroll Employment

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Personal Income

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

September 2008 Forecast*

2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

19.6 3.5 9.4 10.2

19.9 4.7 9.5 10.4

20.2 5.1 9.6 10.6

20.6 5 9.7 10.9

20.8 6.1 9.8 11

21.1 6 9.9 11.2

21.3 5.5 10.1 11.2

21.6 4.9 10.2 11.4

21.8 4.8 10.3 11.5

22.1 4.8 10.5 11.6

22.4 5.1 10.6 11.8

22.7 5.2 10.7 11.9

23 5.4 10.9 12.1

23.3 5.5 11 12.3

16 -0.7

16.1 0.7

16.3 1.6

16.6 2.6

16.7 4.6

16.9 5.1

17 4.6

17.2 3.7

17.3 3.5

17.5 3.7

17.7 3.9

17.9 4

18 4

18.2 3.9

36.3 29.6

36.7 29.7

37.3 30

37.9 30.5

38.3 30.8

38.7 31

39 31.1

39.3 31.3

39.7 31.5

40.1 31.7

40.4 31.9

40.8 32.1

41.2 32.2

41.5 32.4

44.1 1.5

44.5 3.6

44.9 3.3

45.2 3.6

45.6 3.5

46 3.3

46.4 3.3

46.7 3.4

47.1 3.3

47.5 3.2

47.9 3.2

48.3 3.3

48.7 3.4

49.1 3.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

210.4 -0.5

210.5 -0.8

210.3 -0.7

211.1 0

212 0.8

213.1 1.2

214.3 1.9

214.8 1.7

216.5 2.1

217.5 2.1

218.4 1.9

219.7 2.3

220.9 2

221.8 2

22.7 -3.9

22.5 -4.3

22.4 -4

22.3 -3.2

22.1 -2.8

22 -2.1

22.1 -1.5

22.1 -0.7

22.2 0.3

22.2 0.9

22.3 1.1

22.4 1.2

22.5 1.4

22.6 1.5

187.7 -0.1

187.9 -0.3

188.9 0.4

189.9 1.2

191 1.6

192.3 2.3

192.6 2

194.3 2.3

195.2 2.2

196.1 2

197.3 2.4

198.4 2.1

199.3 2.1

13.5 -9

13.2 -9.7

13 -8.7

12.9 -6.3

13.1 -3

13.2 -0.3

13.3 2.6

13.4 3.6

13.5 3.3

13.5 2.3

13.6 2.2

13.8 3.1

14 3.6

14.1 4.6

36 -1.9

35.8 -2.7

35.6 -2.6

35.7 -1.5

35.9 -0.1

36.2 1.1

36.4 2.1

36.6 2.3

36.7 2.2

36.8 1.7

36.9 1.5

36.9 1

37 0.7

37 0.6

5.6 27.8 2.9

5.6 27.9 2.8

5.6 28 2.8

5.7 28.3 2.8

5.8 28.5 2.8

5.8 28.7 2.9

5.8 28.8 2.9

5.9 28.8 2.9

5.9 28.8 3

6 28.8 3

6 28.7 3

6.1 28.6 3.1

6.1 28.5 3.1

2.7 -4

2.7 -0.7

2.7 -2.9

2.7 -2.5

2.7 -1.1

2.7 -1.2

2.7 -0.6

2.7 0.5

2.7 0.7

2.7 1.2

2.8 1.4

2.8 1.6

2.8 2.2

8.7 0.8

8.7 2

8.7 1.1

8.8 0.6

8.8 1.8

8.9 2.3

9 2.5

9.1 2.5

9.1 2.4

9.2 2.6

9.3 2.6

9.3 2.7

9.3 2.5

37.2 -0.4

37.4 -0.6

37.4 0

37.7 0.4

38.1 2.4

38.5 2.9

38.9 4

39.5 4.7

40 5.1

40.4 5

40.9 5.2

41.5 5.3

42.1 5.1

42.4 5

29.8 4.1

30 3.6

30.4 3.5

30.8 4.7

31.1 4.5

31.2 4

31.4 3.5

31.7 2.7

31.8 2.3

31.9 2.2

32.1 2

32.2 1.6

32.4 1.6

22.1 2.3

22.2 2.4

22.3 2.3

22.3 1.4

22.3 1.1

22.3 0.6

22.3 0.2

22.4 0.2

22.4 0.6

22.5 0.7

22.6 1.1

22.7 1.3

22.8 1.4

22.8 1.5

8.2 0.3

8.2 -0.6

8.2 0.4

8.2 0.2

8.2 -0.2

8.2 -0.4

8.1 -0.6

8.2 -0.4

8.2 0.1

8.2 0.4

8.2 0.6

8.2 0.5

8.2 0.4

8.2 0.5

6.2 0.3

6.2 0.4

6.1 -2.6

6.1 -0.9

6.2 0.1

6.3 1.5

6.5 7.4

5.6 -8.3

6.2 -0.2

6.3 0.2

6.1 -6.4

6.1 8.3

6.1 -1.5

6.1 -3.2

23.3 1.6

23.4 1.4

23.5 0.7

23.5 1.7

23.5 0.6

23.5 0.4

23.5 0.3

23.6 0.5

23.6 0.7

23.7 0.8

23.8 0.8

23.9 0.9

23.9 1

14250.7

14289.7

14278.6

14352.3

14400

14479.2

14566.6

14619.7

14778

14882.8

14986.7

15122.6

15258.1

15369.2

541 0.7

541.6 0.6

542 0.5

542.6 0.4

543.6 0.5

545 0.6

546.5 0.8

548.3 1

550.1 1.2

552.1 1.3

554.2 1.4

556.6 1.5

558.9 1.6

561.5 1.7

265.5 1.5

265.9 0.5

266.3 0.8

266.7 0.7

267.3 0.7

267.9 0.8

268.7 0.9

269.5 1

270.4 1.2

271.3 1.3

272.2 1.3

273.2 1.3

274.1 1.4

275.1 1.4

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

7.1

7.2

7.3

7.2

7.1

6.9

6.8

1960 1600 361

2422 1830 592

2716 1939 777

3041 2254 787

3033 2383 650

3243 2652 591

3495 2937 558

3696 3159 538

3926 3372 555

4143 3580 563

4454 3907 547

4842 4303 539

5114 4567 547

5265 4695 571

*Quarterly an an annual rate

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

September 2008 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

13.3 3.6 6.7 6.6

13.9 3.9 6.9 7

14.6 5.3 7.4 7.2

15.8 8.2 8.1 7.7

17 7.8 8.7 8.3

18.1 6.5 9.2 8.9

18.9 4 9.3 9.6

19.6 3.9 9.4 10.2

20.7 5.6 9.8 10.9

21.7 5 10.3 11.4

22.9 5.3 10.8 12

13.1 1.5

13.4 2.5

13.8 3.2

14.6 5.4

15.3 4.8

15.8 3.6

16 1.4

16.1 0.1

16.6 3.5

17.3 3.9

17.9 3.9

27.4 26.8

27.9 27

28.9 27.3

30.5 28.1

32.3 28.9

34 29.7

35.1 29.9

36.2 29.7

38 30.6

39.5 31.4

41 32.2

34.1 3.7

35.2 3.4

36.9 4.7

38.7 4.7

40.3 4.4

42 4.1

43.1 2.7

43.9 1.9

45.4 3.4

46.9 3.3

48.5 3.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

193.3 0.9

192.5 -0.4

196.6 2.1

205.3 4.4

212.5 3.5

216.1 1.7

212.4 -1.7

211 -0.7

211.6 0.3

215.8 1.9

220.2 2.1

23.8 -4

22.9 -3.9

22.8 -0.5

23.6 3.8

23.9 1.2

24.6 2.7

23.8 -3.3

22.9 -3.7

22.2 -3

22.2 -0.2

22.4 1.3

169.5 1.7

169.6 0.1

173.8 2.5

181.7 4.5

188.5 3.8

191.6 1.6

188.6 -1.5

188.1 -0.3

189.4 0.7

193.6 2.2

197.8 2.1

13.2 5.1

12.7 -3.1

13 2.3

14.8 13.6

17.2 16.2

18.1 5

15.2 -15.8

13.7 -10.1

13 -4.6

13.4 2.9

13.9 3.4

34.8 2.1

34.8 -0.1

34.2 -1.6

35.5 3.7

37.1 4.5

37.4 1

36.8 -1.6

36.2 -1.8

35.9 -0.8

36.6 2.1

37 1

5 26.8 3

4.8 26.6 3.3

4.6 26.3 3.3

4.7 27.2 3.6

5.2 28 3.8

5.5 28.3 3.6

5.6 28 3.3

5.6 27.8 2.9

5.7 28.4 2.8

5.9 28.8 3

6.1 28.6 3.1

3.1 1.2

2.8 -10.8

2.8 0

2.8 -0.9

2.9 6

2.9 0.1

2.8 -3.2

2.8 -2

2.7 -1.9

2.7 0.4

2.8 1.9

7.1 5.8

7.3 3.4

7.3 0.7

7.8 5.8

8.4 7.8

8.6 2.4

8.7 0.8

8.7 0.4

8.8 1.5

9 2.5

9.3 2.6

34.1 -1.5

33.4 -2.2

34.7 4.1

37.1 6.8

38.7 4.5

38.4 -1

37.5 -2.3

37.4 -0.2

37.9 1.4

39.7 4.7

41.8 5.1

24.4 2.1

25.3 3.5

26.7 5.7

26.8 0.3

27.3 1.8

28.2 3.1

28.7 2

29.7 3.3

30.9 4.2

31.7 2.7

32.3 1.7

18.6 2.4

18.6 0.1

18.9 1.8

19.8 4.7

20.5 3.5

21.2 3.5

21.6 1.6

22 2.1

22.3 1.3

22.4 0.4

22.7 1.3

7.5 -2

7.6 1

8.2 8.4

8.4 1.6

8.1 -2.8

8.1 -0.7

8.2 1.1

8.2 0.1

8.2 0

8.2 -0.1

8.2 0.5

5.8 1

5.7 -1.8

5.7 1.2

5.9 3.9

6.1 1.8

6.2 1.7

6.2 0.2

6.2 0.6

6.2 -0.5

6.2 -0.3

6.1 -1

21 3.4

21.6 2.9

22.1 2.6

22.9 3.3

22.2 -2.8

22.6 1.7

23 1.7

23.3 1.4

23.5 0.8

23.6 0.5

23.8 0.9

11718.9

12105.5

12831.4

13888.5

14815.4

15188

14956.5

14640.8

14377.5

14711.8

15184.2

487.1 1.7

495.7 1.8

505.3 1.9

517.6 2.4

527.1 1.8

532.4 1

536.7 0.8

540.6 0.7

543.3 0.5

549.2 1.1

557.8 1.6

235.7 1.6

238.2 1.1

242 1.6

248.3 2.6

253.6 2.1

259.3 2.3

262 1

265.1 1.2

267.1 0.7

270 1.1

273.6 1.4

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.4

5.7

5.2

4.4

3.7

3.4

4.4

6.3

7.2

6.9

5073 4499 573

6591 5091 1500

6115 5578 537

8212 6313 1899

8487 7206 1281

5346 4370 977

2808 2204 604

2074 1519 555

3008 2307 702

3815 3262 553

4919 4368 551

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is comprised of Escambia County and Santa Rosa County. Located in the northwest corner of the state bordering Alabama, this region is home to the Pensacola Naval Air Station, Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval Aviation. This area has been referred to as the “Cradle of Naval Aviation.”

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is expected to achieve moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 4.5 percent each year on average, while average annual wage rate growth should be about 2.8 percent. Employment growth is expected to be 0.9 percent. Housing starts are expected to grow 4.3 percent each year, one of the lowest growth rates in the state.

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 453,451 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Escambia County population estimate of 306,407 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Santa Rosa County population estimate of 147,044 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 208,802 in January 2008 for the MSA (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 4.2% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 8,857 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Local Government – 15,790 employees • Federal Government – 7,403 employees • State Government – 5,970 employees • Sacred Heart Health System – 3,500 employees • Baptist Health Care – 3,470 employees • University of West Florida – 2,267 employees • Solutia, Inc. – 1,800 employees • Lakeview – 1,500 employees • Gulf Power Company – 1,400 employees • West Florida Hospital – 1,200 employees Source: Greater Pensacola Chamber of Commerce

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

At 3.1 percent average annual growth, education and health services will be the top sector in Pensacola. Following that sector is professional and business services, growing on average 2.4 percent each year.

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Officials hope to lure prison to Santa Rosa • A 2,000-bed private correctional facility may be coming to Santa Rosa County if commissioners can gain approval of the so-called Project Justice resolution. • The prison would cost, on average, $110 million and could bring a potential 300 to 400 jobs to the area. • Potential issues that have worked against getting the prison to Santa Rose include the high turnover rate of private prison employees and the relatively inexperienced staff. Source: Pensacola News Journal, August 29, 2008 Commission finds $2.7M more in cuts • On top of the $12 million already expected to be cut from the budget, another $2.7 million has been proposed to be eliminated. • Some of the new potential cuts include decreasing the proposed hike to the general fund by 50 percent and cutting funding for revising the county’s code of development. • The budget will be up for approval in September. Source: Pensacola News Journal, August 15, 2008

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Coming to Pensacola Beach • A $60 million, 206-room Holiday Inn is coming to Pensacola Beach and is expected to be complete in the spring of 2010. It will be situated overlooking the Gulf of Mexico. • The hotel will include a restaurant, a fitness center, an outdoor patio, and more than 10,000 square feet of meeting space. Source: Pensacola News Journal, August 10, 2008 Baptist Health Care to buy West Florida • Baptist Health Care offered to buy West Florida Hospital for $245 million and currently waits for federal approval of the purchase. • If the deal goes through, it could mean a loss of about 320 jobs. It could also mean a reduction of $1.5 million in property taxes to Escambia County since Baptist Health is a non-profit and is not required to pay those taxes. • Of all non-governmental employers in northwest Florida, Baptist is the largest hospital with a great economic impact on the area. Source: Pensacola News Journal, June 26, 2008 Hockey’s departure hits downtown businesses • The termination of the Ice Pilots hockey team in Pensacola has left local downtown businesses worried about the future. The Ice Pilots brought in a lot of business whenever they played at the Pensacola Civic Center. There is likely to be no hockey this season. • Termination of the team was due to a number of factors, including a downturn in the economy and rising fuel costs. Source: Pensacola News Journal, June 25, 2008

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P e n s ac o l a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; F e r r y P a s s â&#x20AC;&#x201C; B r e n t Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate 7.0%

(percent)

0.4

0.6

12000.0

5.0%

10500.0

4.0%

10000.0

3.0%

9500.0

185.0 180.0 175.0 170.0 165.0 160.0 155.0 150.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Pensacola Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

1.4

1.6

(Millions 2000 $)

9000.0 8500.0

Pensacola Payroll Employment (Thousands)

1.2

11500.0 11000.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 FL Unemployment Rate Pensacola Unemployment Rate

Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product

6.0%

2.0%

0.8

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Gross Metro Product

Pensacola Real Personal Income 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Personal Income

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

September 2008 Forecast*

2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

14.7 3.6 7 7.7

14.8 4.4 7 7.8

15 4.2 7.1 8

15.2 3.8 7.1 8.1

15.4 4.9 7.2 8.2

15.6 5 7.3 8.3

15.7 4.8 7.4 8.4

15.9 4.4 7.4 8.5

16.1 4.5 7.5 8.6

16.3 4.6 7.6 8.7

16.5 4.8 7.7 8.8

16.7 5 7.8 8.9

16.9 5 7.9 9

17.1 5 8 9.2

12 -0.6

12 0.4

12.1 0.7

12.3 1.5

12.4 3.5

12.5 4.1

12.6 4

12.7 3.1

12.8 3.3

12.9 3.4

13 3.6

13.1 3.8

13.2 3.6

13.3 3.4

32.2 26.2

32.5 26.3

32.9 26.5

33.4 26.9

33.8 27.1

34.1 27.3

34.4 27.5

34.7 27.7

35.2 27.9

35.5 28.1

35.9 28.3

36.3 28.5

36.7 28.7

37 28.9

37.3 2.4

37.6 3.4

37.9 3

38.1 3.2

38.4 3.1

38.7 2.9

39 2.9

39.3 3

39.5 2.9

39.8 2.8

40.1 2.8

40.4 2.9

40.7 3

41 3.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

174.2 -0.4

174.3 -0.1

174.2 -0.9

174.8 0.1

175.5 0.7

176.2 1.1

177 1.6

177 1.2

178.3 1.6

178.9 1.5

179.5 1.4

180.3 1.9

181.1 1.6

181.7 1.6

6.7 -5.4

6.6 -3.6

6.5 -6.1

6.5 -4.5

6.4 -3.9

6.4 -3

6.4 -2.1

6.4 -1.4

6.4 -0.5

6.4 -0.1

6.4 0.1

6.4 0.3

6.4 0.4

167.5 -0.2

167.7 0.1

167.7 -0.7

168.3 0.3

169 0.9

169.8 1.2

170.7 1.8

170.6 1.3

171.9 1.7

172.5 1.6

173.1 1.4

173.9 1.9

174.7 1.6

175.3 1.6

13.1 -10.8

12.9 -9.8

12.6 -8.7

12.4 -7.6

12.6 -4.3

12.7 -1.6

12.8 1.4

12.8 2.9

12.9 2.8

12.9 1.8

13 1.9

13.2 2.7

13.3 3.2

13.4 4

32.6 -1.4

32.4 -1

32.2 -2.2

32.3 -1.7

32.5 -0.3

32.7 0.9

32.9 2

33.1 2.3

33.2 2.1

33.3 1.7

33.4 1.5

33.4 1

33.5 0.8

33.5 0.7

6.5 22 4.2

6.6 22 4.2

6.6 22.1 4.2

6.6 22.2 4.2

6.7 22.3 4.3

6.7 22.5 4.3

6.7 22.6 4.4

6.8 22.6 4.4

6.9 22.6 4.5

6.9 22.5 4.5

6.9 22.4 4.5

7 22.4 4.6

7 22.3 4.6

3.2 -6.1

3.2 -4.6

3.2 -4.8

3.2 -2.8

3.2 -1

3.2 -0.8

3.2 -0.2

3.2 0.6

3.2 1

3.3 1.3

3.3 1.4

3.3 1.8

3.3 1.7

9.4 -0.3

9.4 0.9

9.4 -0.7

9.5 0.4

9.5 1.6

9.6 2

9.6 2.2

9.7 2.1

9.7 2

9.8 1.9

9.8 2

9.9 2.1

9.9 2.2

10 2

22.7 -2.6

22.9 -0.7

23 0.1

23.3 1.7

23.5 3.5

23.6 3.3

23.8 3.5

24.1 3.6

24.4 3.8

24.5 3.8

24.8 4.2

25.2 4.4

25.5 4.6

25.7 4.6

30.7 5.4

31 4.4

31.3 3.3

31.8 4.5

32 4.2

32.1 3.7

32.3 3.2

32.5 2.4

32.6 2

32.7 1.9

32.8 1.6

32.9 1.3

33.1 1.3

33.1 1.1

18 3

18.1 1.7

18.2 -0.5

18.1 0.6

18 0.1

18 -0.3

18.1 -0.5

18.1 -0.1

18.1 0.5

18.2 0.8

18.3 1.1

18.4 1.5

18.5 1.7

7.8 -0.9

7.8 -1.1

7.8 -0.7

7.8 0.1

7.8 -0.2

7.8 -0.4

7.8 -0.2

7.8 0.2

7.8 0.5

7.8 0.6

7.8 0.5

7.8 0.3

6.4 -2.6

6.4 -1.3

6.3 -3.7

6.3 -0.9

6.4 -0.2

6.4 1.1

6.6 5.6

5.7 -9.4

6.3 -1

6.4 -0.2

6.3 -5.4

6.3 9.2

6.3 -0.9

6.3 -2.9

23.6 2.7

23.6 2.9

23.6 1.7

23.6 1.1

23.6 0

23.6 -0.2

23.6 -0.3

23.6 -0.1

23.6 0.1

23.6 0.2

23.6 0.3

23.7 0.3

23.7 0.4

10865.6

10893.4

10882.7

10934.5

10959.7

11006.2

11053.9

11069.2

11182.3

11250

11319.7

11408

11495.7

11566.5

456 0.4

456.2 0.3

456.3 0.2

456.4 0.2

456.5 0.1

456.7 0.1

457.1 0.2

457.5 0.2

457.9 0.3

458.5 0.4

459.2 0.5

460.1 0.6

461.1 0.7

462.1 0.8

212.6 1.1

212.6 0.6

212.5 0

212.7 0

212.9 0.2

213.2 0.4

213.6 0.5

214.1 0.7

214.5 0.8

215 0.8

215.4 0.8

215.9 0.9

216.4 0.9

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.9

6.1

6.2

6.1

5.9

5.8

5.7

1187 1009 178

1294 1043 251

1351 1047 304

1479 1196 283

1470 1265 205

1544 1388 155

1669 1533 136

1791 1668 123

1926 1799 126

2057 1931 127

2232 2112 120

2417 2301 116

2548 2432 116

2619 2500 119

*Quarterly an an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

September 2008 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

10.2 4.8 5.1 5.1

10.5 3.2 5.1 5.4

10.9 4.1 5.4 5.6

11.7 7.4 5.8 6

12.6 7.2 6.1 6.4

13.5 7.2 6.6 6.9

14.1 4.5 6.8 7.3

14.7 4 7 7.7

15.3 4.5 7.2 8.1

16 4.6 7.5 8.5

16.8 4.9 7.8 9

10 2.6

10.1 1.8

10.3 2.1

10.8 4.7

11.3 4.2

11.8 4.3

12 1.9

12 0.3

12.3 2.4

12.7 3.4

13.2 3.6

24.1 23.6

24.5 23.6

25.1 23.8

26.6 24.6

28.2 25.3

29.9 26.1

31 26.4

32.1 26.4

33.5 27

35 27.8

36.5 28.6

29.6 2.8

29.9 1

30.8 3

32.6 5.9

33.8 3.7

35.6 5.3

36.3 1.9

37.1 2.3

38.3 3.1

39.4 2.9

40.6 3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

155.1 1.2

154.7 -0.3

158.5 2.5

162.9 2.8

168.7 3.6

173.1 2.6

174.4 0.8

174.7 0.2

175.2 0.2

177.8 1.5

180.6 1.6

7.9 -10.1

7.3 -7.1

7.4 1.1

7.3 -1.3

7.5 3.1

7.4 -1.4

7 -5.6

6.7 -3.8

6.5 -4.4

6.4 -1.1

6.4 0.2

147.2 1.9

147.3 0.1

151.1 2.6

155.6 3

161.1 3.6

165.7 2.8

167.4 1.1

168 0.3

168.7 0.4

171.4 1.6

174.2 1.6

12.8 6.3

11.1 -13.4

10.8 -2.8

11.6 7.8

13.9 19.4

15.4 10.4

14.6 -4.6

13.3 -9.1

12.6 -5.6

12.8 2.2

13.2 2.9

29.1 -1.7

29.1 0.2

29.4 1

30.4 3.2

32.3 6.2

32.2 -0.2

32.8 1.9

32.7 -0.3

32.4 -0.9

33.1 2

33.4 1

5.5 20.2 3.4

5.3 20.5 3.4

5.3 20.8 3.3

5.6 21.1 3.7

6.2 21.9 4.2

6.2 21.8 4.2

6.6 22.2 4.1

6.6 22 4.3

6.6 22.3 4.3

6.8 22.6 4.4

7 22.4 4.6

3.7 -11.3

4.2 13.6

4.1 -2

3.9 -4.5

3.8 -4.7

3.8 0.7

3.5 -7.8

3.3 -5.3

3.2 -2.4

3.2 0.5

3.3 1.6

6.9 1.2

6.5 -6

6.8 4.6

7.5 9.8

8.2 9.9

8.9 8.4

9.3 4.9

9.4 0.9

9.5 0.8

9.7 2.1

9.9 2

18.3 2.5

19.2 5.4

20.1 4.6

21.6 7.2

23.1 7.1

23.2 0.5

23 -1.1

22.9 -0.6

23.3 2.2

24.2 3.7

25.3 4.4

24.2 3

25.3 4.6

26.8 6.2

26.7 -0.4

26 -2.9

27.5 5.9

29.2 6.2

30.6 4.8

31.8 3.9

32.5 2.3

33 1.3

15.7 11.7

15.7 -0.2

16.6 6.1

17.4 4.7

17.2 -0.9

17.7 2.5

17.6 -0.3

18.1 2.7

18.1 0

18.1 0.2

18.4 1.5

7.4 -0.7

7.7 2.9

7.9 2.6

7.9 0.9

7.8 -1.6

7.8 0

7.9 1.2

7.8 -1.3

7.8 -0.2

7.8 0

7.8 0.4

7.4 -4.2

6.9 -6.2

6.9 -0.5

6.7 -2.2

6.7 -0.5

6.7 0.4

6.5 -2.8

6.4 -1.9

6.4 -1

6.3 -1.2

6.3 -0.3

21.7 1.9

21.6 -0.8

21.6 0

21.8 0.9

22.2 2

22.5 1.4

22.8 1.6

23.4 2.6

23.6 0.6

23.6 0

23.7 0.3

9358.5

9321.7

9680.9

10067.4

10421.5

10695.3

10688.7

10816

10945.8

11138.9

11447.5

421.4 1.7

428.5 1.7

434.5 1.4

440.7 1.4

445.9 1.2

451.2 1.2

453.7 0.6

455.7 0.4

456.5 0.2

457.7 0.3

460.6 0.6

186.4 -0.6

187.3 0.5

191.1 2.1

194.3 1.7

197.9 1.8

203.4 2.8

209.2 2.9

212.5 1.6

212.6 0

213.8 0.6

215.7 0.9

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.8

5.3

4.8

4.6

3.8

3.2

3.8

5.3

6.2

5.8

3091 2983 108

3141 2955 186

4426 3558 868

4713 3629 1083

3764 3285 479

2765 2325 440

2472 1778 693

1499 1204 296

1461 1224 237

1861 1733 128

2454 2336 118

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

Ta l l a h a s s ee

P r o fi l e s

• Tallahassee Leon County Civic Center - 672 employees

The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla counties. It is located between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State University and Florida A&M University.

• Quincy Corp. - 575 employees

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 352,319 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Gadsden County population estimate of 47,197 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Jefferson County population estimate of 14,451 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Leon County population estimate of 260,945 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Wakulla County population estimate of 29,726 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • An MSA civilian labor force of 186,760 in January 2008 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3.3% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 6,153 unemployed people for the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • State Government (all departments) – 46,200 employees • Local Government (all departments) – 16,100 employees • Tallahassee Memorial Healthcare – 2,750 employees • Federal Government (all departments) – 1,900 employees

• Capital Regional Medical Center - 572 employees • Meridian Healthcare Group - 500 employees • Branch Banking & Trust Co. - 403 employees Sources: Florida Regional Economic Database and Tallahassee Economic Development Council

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s The Tallahassee area is expected to maintain moderate growth in the indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 4.7 percent, while average annual wage is expected to grow 3.3 percent. Employment growth will be slow at 0.5 percent annually. Per capita income levels should average 28.2 each year. Housing starts are expected to grow 4.8 percent, one of the lowest in the state. Education and health services will be the leading sector in Tallahassee, averaging 2.6 percent annually. Professional and business services follow that sector with 2.1 percent average annual growth. Unemployment in the area is expected to average 4.7 percent each year.

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Prices making jet service scarce in Tallahassee • As a result of soaring fuel prices, Delta plans to discontinue intrastate travel from Tallahassee to Tampa, Fort Lauderdale, and Orlando beginning on October 1. • Tallahassee has not proved profitable for direct travel, therefore travelers will have to fly to Atlanta before flying south again. Source: The Tallahassee Democrat, September 5, 2008

• Alltel Florida, Inc. – 1,000 employees

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Ta l l a h a s s ee

Leon County commissioners vote to reduce property-tax rate • Leon County commissioners agreed to cut $5.8 million in spending on parks and libraries to reduce the proposed property-tax rate from a 16 percent to a 10 percent increase. The tax-rate represents a 3.7 percent tax revenue increase under Florida law. • The commissioners agreed on a $268.4-million budget that includes a $2-million increase in spending on transportation and stormwater projects and a $3.1-million cut in park and library expansions. Source: The Tallahassee Democrat, September 4, 2008 Leon County School Board debuts budget • Leon County schools will have $470 million to work with for the 2008-2009 school year, $70 million less than last year’s $540 million. • This budget will have $16.6 million less in the general-fund portion, which makes up 80 percent of the district’s employee salaries. • The district had to cut many positions, including 56 jobs at the district level and nearly 190 annualcontract teachers who didn’t get renewals. Source: The Tallahassee Democrat, July 22, 2008 Construction starts on state offices • A new $110-million office complex for the Department of Revenue promises to be an economic stimulus for North Florida and will save the state $900,000 a year in rent and $500,000 in electricity. • The DOR project is expected to take at least 18 months to build, generating hundreds of construction jobs and housing more than 2,000 state workers. Source: The Tallahassee Democrat, June 18, 2008

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

City partners with GE, Sam’s Club to launch energy-saving promotion • In an effort to reduce Tallahassee’s electricity demand, GE and Sam’s Club have teamed with the City of Tallahassee and Tallahassee Utilities. A promotion where customers receive rebates for purchasing compact fluorescent bulbs is expected to result in millions of dollars in savings for customers and a long-term impact on the community. • Being that the fluorescent bulbs consume 75 percent less energy and last up to 10 times longer than incandescent bulbs, there is an expected increase in usage. Source: The Tallahassee Democrat, June 12, 2008

Ta l l a h a s s ee Tallahassee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.5

Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate 7.0%

(percent)

2.5

Tallahassee Real Gross Metro Product 11500.0

(Millions 2000 $)

11000.0

9500.0

4.0%

9000.0

3.0%

8500.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 FL Unemployment Rate Tallahassee Unemployment Rate

8000.0

Tallahassee Payroll Employment (Thousands)

180.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Gross Metro Product

Tallahassee Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

175.0

4.0%

170.0

2.0%

165.0

0.0%

160.0 155.0

10000.0

5.0%

185.0

1.5

10500.0

6.0%

2.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Tallahassee Payroll Employment

-2.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Ta l l a h a s s ee

Quarterly Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

September 2008 Forecast*

2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

12 3.4 6.8 5.1

12.1 3.8 6.9 5.2

12.2 3.7 7 5.3

12.4 3.8 7 5.3

12.5 4.7 7.1 5.4

12.7 5 7.2 5.5

12.8 5 7.3 5.6

13 4.9 7.3 5.6

13.1 4.9 7.4 5.7

13.3 5 7.5 5.8

13.5 5.2 7.6 5.9

13.7 5.3 7.7 6

13.8 5.3 7.8 6.1

14 5.3 7.9 6.1

9.7 -0.7

9.8 -0.2

9.8 0.3

10 1.5

10.1 3.3

10.1 4.1

10.2 4.1

10.3 3.6

10.4 3.7

10.5 3.8

10.7 4.1

10.8 4.1

10.8 3.9

10.9 3.8

33.4 27.2

33.7 27.2

34 27.4

34.3 27.7

34.7 27.9

35 28

35.3 28.2

35.7 28.4

36 28.6

36.4 28.8

36.8 29

37.1 29.2

37.5 29.4

37.9 29.5

38.3 2.5

38.7 3.7

39 3.4

39.3 3.7

39.7 3.5

40 3.4

40.4 3.4

40.7 3.4

41 3.3

41.3 3.3

41.7 3.3

42 3.3

42.4 3.5

42.8 3.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

177.4 -0.8

177.4 -0.9

177.5 -1

178.1 0.3

178.5 0.6

178.9 0.8

179.4 1.1

179.8 1

180.5 1.1

181 1.1

181.5 1.1

182.1 1.3

182.8 1.3

183.3 1.3

4.5 -2.8

4.4 -4.2

4.3 -5.9

4.3 -3.9

4.3 -3.1

4.3 -1.7

4.3 -0.7

4.3 -0.1

4.3 0.5

4.3 0.6

4.3 0.4

4.4 0.5

4.4 0.7

172.9 -0.8

173 -0.9

173.1 -0.8

173.7 0.4

174.1 0.7

174.6 0.9

175.1 1.2

175.4 1

176.2 1.2

176.6 1.2

177.1 1.1

177.8 1.3

178.4 1.3

179 1.3

8.5 -10.6

8.2 -13

8 -12

7.9 -9.6

8 -5.8

8 -2.3

8.1 0.9

8.1 2.5

8.2 2.6

8.2 2

8.3 2.3

8.4 3.1

8.5 3.5

8.5 4.2

24.8 -1.8

24.7 -1.6

24.5 -1

24.6 -1.9

24.7 -0.5

24.9 0.7

25 1.7

25.1 2

25.2 1.8

25.2 1.4

25.3 1.2

25.3 0.7

25.3 0.4

25.3 0.3

4 18.6 2.4

3.9 18.7 2.4

4 18.8 2.4

4 18.9 2.5

4 19.1 2.5

4.1 19.1 2.5

4.1 19.1 2.6

4.1 19 2.6

4.2 19 2.6

4.2 18.9 2.6

4.1 1.9

4.1 -2.1

4.1 -5.5

4 -2.6

4 -0.6

4.1 0

4.1 0.5

4.1 1

4.1 0.9

4.1 1.1

4.1 1.4

4.1 1.5

4.2 1.8

4.2 1.6

8.3 0.6

8.3 -0.5

8.3 -0.6

8.3 0.7

8.4 1.3

8.4 1.6

8.5 1.7

8.5 1.8

8.6 2

8.6 2.1

8.7 2.1

8.7 1.9

19.5 -2.4

19.8 -1.1

20 1.7

20.3 3.2

20.4 4.6

20.5 3.9

20.6 3.3

20.8 2.8

21 2.8

21.1 2.9

21.3 3.4

21.6 3.9

21.9 4.3

22.1 4.5

18.6 4.6

18.7 3.8

18.9 3.3

19.1 3.9

19.2 3.7

19.3 3.3

19.4 2.8

19.5 2.1

19.6 1.7

19.6 1.6

19.7 1.4

19.7 1

19.8 1.1

19.8 1

17.5 4

17.6 2.4

17.6 0.4

17.7 1.3

17.7 1

17.7 0.5

17.7 0.1

17.7 0

17.7 0.3

17.7 0.5

17.8 0.8

17.9 1.1

18 1.2

8.9 0.7

8.9 0.3

8.9 0.2

8.9 0.4

8.9 0.2

8.9 0.4

8.9 0.2

8.9 0.3

9 0.6

9 0.8

9 0.9

9 0.7

9 0.4

1.9 1.3

1.9 -1.6

1.9 -1

1.9 0.4

2 2.5

2.1 11.7

1.8 -5.6

2 1.6

2 0.9

1.9 -8.9

1.9 5.9

1.9 -3.2

1.9 -4.4

60.9 -1.7

60.9 -1.2

61 -1.3

61 0.9

60.9 0

60.9 -0.1

60.9 -0.2

60.9 -0.1

61 0.2

61.1 0.3

61.2 0.5

61.3 0.5

61.5 0.6

10396.4

10420.3

10417.3

10475.9

10496.8

10536.8

10580.8

10623.7

10699.4

10753.9

10815.2

10895.2

10975.9

11041.4

357.8 1.2

358.6 1.1

359.3 1

360.1 0.9

360.9 0.9

361.8 0.9

362.8 1

363.8 1

364.8 1.1

365.8 1.1

366.8 1.1

367.9 1.1

368.9 1.1

370.1 1.2

186.3 0.1

186.2 -0.7

186.1 -0.7

186.1 -0.2

186.2 -0.1

186.5 0.1

186.8 0.4

187.2 0.6

187.6 0.7

188 0.8

188.5 0.9

188.9 0.9

189.4 1

189.8 1

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.8

4.9

5.1

4.9

4.8

4.7

1061 750 311

1166 813 353

1223 841 381

1404 974 430

1467 1038 429

1598 1150 448

1767 1279 488

1907 1385 522

2038 1487 550

2147 1586 561

2304 1734 570

2470 1888 582

2597 1990 607

2678 2039 638

*Quarterly an an annual rate

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

Ta l l a h a s s ee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

September 2008 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

8.3 3.7 5.2 3

8.4 2.1 5.3 3.1

8.7 3.6 5.5 3.3

9.5 8.4 5.8 3.7

10.2 7.8 6.1 4.1

10.8 6.2 6.4 4.4

11.5 5.8 6.7 4.8

11.9 4 6.8 5.1

12.4 4.3 7.1 5.4

13.1 5 7.4 5.7

13.8 5.3 7.7 6

8.1 1.6

8.1 0.7

8.3 1.6

8.7 5.6

9.1 4.7

9.5 3.3

9.7 3.1

9.8 0.3

10 2.3

10.4 3.8

10.8 4

25.4 24.9

25.7 24.8

26.2 24.8

28 25.8

29.8 26.7

31.1 27.1

32.5 27.6

33.4 27.4

34.5 27.7

35.9 28.5

37.3 29.3

31.3 5

32.2 2.9

32.8 2.1

34.2 4.2

35 2.2

36 2.9

37.1 3.2

38.2 2.8

39.5 3.5

40.8 3.4

42.2 3.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

165.9 -0.4

164.4 -0.9

165.7 0.8

168.2 1.5

172.8 2.8

177 2.4

178.7 1

177.9 -0.5

178.2 0.2

180.2 1.1

182.4 1.3

4.4 -13

4.1 -6.6

4.1 -0.6

4.2 2

4.2 0.8

4.5 4.9

4.6 2.8

4.5 -1.7

4.3 -3.7

4.3 0.1

4.4 0.6

161.5 0

160.2 -0.8

161.6 0.8

163.9 1.5

168.5 2.8

172.5 2.4

174.2 0.9

173.4 -0.4

173.9 0.3

175.8 1.1

178.1 1.3

6.9 -4.9

7.2 3.5

7.7 7.1

8.3 8.6

9.4 12.4

9.8 4.8

9.5 -3.6

8.6 -8.7

8 -7.6

8.2 2

8.4 3.3

24.1 -4.9

23.4 -3.1

23.5 0.5

24.6 4.4

25.4 3.4

25.6 0.9

25.3 -1.2

24.8 -1.8

24.7 -0.7

25.1 1.7

25.3 0.7

3.7 18.4 2

3.2 18.1 2.1

3 18.5 2

3.3 19.1 2.1

3.6 19.3 2.5

3.7 19.4 2.4

3.9 19 2.4

3.9 18.6 2.4

4 18.9 2.4

4.1 19.1 2.5

4.2 18.9 2.6

4.6 -5.1

4 -13.4

3.8 -3.8

4 4.6

4.1 1.9

3.9 -4.7

4 3

4.1 3.5

4 -2.2

4.1 0.9

4.1 1.6

6.9 -0.5

7.4 7.4

7.7 3

7.6 -0.7

8 4.8

8.3 4.4

8.3 -1

8.3 0.7

8.3 0.2

8.5 1.7

8.6 2

18.7 6.4

18.2 -2.7

18.2 -0.1

18.2 -0.2

19.2 5.6

20.1 4.9

20 -0.3

19.6 -2

20.3 3.3

20.9 3

21.7 4

16.8 -0.2

16.5 -1.8

16.7 1.1

16.4 -1.7

16.8 2.7

17.4 3.4

17.9 2.6

18.5 3.4

19.1 3.6

19.5 2.1

19.8 1.1

13 7.2

13.4 3.2

13.6 1.6

14.4 6.1

15.6 8.3

16.2 3.3

16.9 4.5

17.5 3.8

17.7 0.8

17.7 0.2

17.9 1.1

8.1 -1.1

8.1 -0.2

7.8 -3.7

8 2.8

8 -0.6

8.5 5.8

8.8 4.5

8.9 0.5

8.9 0.3

9 0.5

9 0.6

1.9 -6.5

1.9 2.2

2 3

1.9 -3.3

1.9 0

1.9 -1.7

1.9 0

1.9 1.1

1.9 0.1

2 2.1

1.9 -2.9

60.3 0.3

60.1 -0.4

60.6 0.8

60.5 -0.1

60.2 -0.5

60.8 1.2

61.6 1.3

61 -1

60.9 -0.1

61 0.1

61.3 0.5

9227.4

9378.6

9572.3

9954.6

10235.6

10387.5

10460.2

10463.1

10481.7

10664.5

10931.9

325 1

328.6 1.1

333.8 1.6

338.2 1.3

342.9 1.4

348.2 1.5

352.9 1.4

357.3 1.2

360.5 0.9

364.3 1

368.4 1.1

172.5 0

173.4 0.5

173.4 0

175.6 1.3

180.8 2.9

185.7 2.8

186.6 0.5

186.2 -0.2

187.4 0.6

189.1 0.9

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.7

4.5

4.2

3.8

3.2

2.9

3.2

4.3

4.9

4.7

2648 1886 762

2661 2177 483

3822 2424 1398

3382 2131 1251

3702 2767 934

3096 2536 560

2761 2166 594

1372 981 391

1423 1001 422

1965 1434 530

2512 1913 599

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r wa t e r

P r o fi l e s

• Hillsborough County Government – 10,886 employees

The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is comprised of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas counties. Located centrally on the west coast of Florida, this region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge Docks, Ybor City, Bush Gardens, the University of South Florida, and the University of Tampa. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Devil Rays also call this region home.

• Danka Business Systems – 9,500 employees

Quick Facts: • MSA population estimate of 2,723,949 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hernando County population estimate of 169,070 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hillsborough County population estimate of 1,174,727 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Pasco County population estimate of 462,715 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Pinellas County population estimate of 917,437 as of July 1, 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 1,341,382 in January 2008 for the entire region (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 4.8% as of February 2008, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 64,031 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Publix Super Markets – 23,248 employees • Hillsborough County School District – 21,426 employees • MacDill Air Force Base – 19,000 employees • Baycare – 17,000 employees • Verizon Communications – 14,000 employees • University of South Florida – 12,477 employees 84

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

• Tampa International Airport – 8,000 employees • Lincare Holdings – 6,100 employees Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal & Committee of One Hundred Research

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is expected to show relatively strong gains in the state. Employment growth will average 1.6 percent, one of the highest in the state. Personal income growth is expected to be 5.1 percent, while average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.5 percent. Housing starts are expected to grow 17.3 percent on average each year. The fastest growing sector in the Tampa area is professional and business services, growing 4.1 percent each year. Education and health services follow with an average annual growth rate of 2.8 percent. Unemployment in the area is expected to average 6.2 percent each year.

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Tampa metro drops on “best performing cities” list • According to the Milken Institute’s Best Performing Cities index ranking in the country, the Tampa MSA dropped from Number 40 in 2007 to Number 80 in 2008. • The main factor for the sharp drop in ranking is attributed to the housing downturn in the area. • The report ranks areas based on job creation and job sustainability. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, September 12, 2008

Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r wa t e r

Foreclosures continue to climb in region • According to RealtyTrac, the Tampa MSA ranked No. 17 for the worst foreclosure rates in the country. • Approximately one in 87 homes was foreclosed in the area, a 158.1 percent increase from a year ago. • Nationally, one in 171 homes was foreclosed. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, July 25, 2008 Tampa Electric hits milestone on $330-million project • Tampa Electric’s Big Bend Power Station project to install pollution-controlling equipment has just completed its second phase, with the total project expected to be finished by 2010. The total cost of the project is $330 million. • The finished project should reduce total nitrogen oxide emissions by 90 percent from twelve years earlier. • The Big Bend Power Station project is just one part of a larger $1.2-billion deal with the EPA and Florida’s DEP to reduce emissions. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, July 7, 2008

800 tech jobs added to Tampa-St. Petersburg • According to the American Electronics Association, 2006 saw an increase of 800 tech jobs to the Tampa-St. Petersburg area. The total number of high-tech jobs is 56,700. • About $3.7 billion was spent on wages for hightech jobs in the MSA in 2006. • The data for 2006 is the most recent available for metropolitan areas. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, June 24, 2008

Housing grants earmarked for Tampa • Tampa is one of the areas in the U.S. that will be given a share of the $37.3 million allocated by the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco for affordable housing. • Affordable housing grants target developers of both single- and multiple-family homes that cater to providing housing for low to moderate income families. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, June 26, 2008

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Tampa â&#x20AC;&#x201C; S t. P e t e r s bu r g â&#x20AC;&#x201C; C l ea r wa t e r Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

Florida & Tampa Unemployment Rate (percent)

7.0%

0.4

0.6

0.8

100000.0

5.0%

85000.0

4.0%

80000.0

3.0%

75000.0 65000.0

1300.0 1250.0 1200.0 1150.0 1100.0 1050.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Tampa Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

(Millions 2000 $)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Gross Metro Product

Tampa Real Personal Income

(Thousands)

1350.0

1.6

70000.0

Tampa Payroll Employment 1400.0

1.4

95000.0 90000.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 FL Unemployment Rate Tampa Unemployment Rate

1.2

Tampa Real Gross Metro Product

6.0%

2.0%

7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Real Personal Income

Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r wa t e r

Quarterly Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

September 2008 Forecast*

2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 Personal Income (Billions $)

105.1 3.7 54.6 50.4

106.2 4.5 55.4 50.8

107.7 4.7 56.1 51.5

109.2 4.4 57 52.2

110.6 5.3 57.8 52.8

112.1 5.5 58.7 53.3

113.5 5.5 59.6 53.9

115.1 5.5 60.4 54.7

116.7 5.5 61.4 55.4

118.4 5.6 62.2 56.2

120 5.7 63.2 56.8

121.7 5.7 64.2 57.6

123.5 5.8 65.2 58.3

125.4 5.9 66.2 59.2

85.5 -0.5

85.8 0.5

86.7 1.1

88 2

88.9 3.9

89.7 4.6

90.7 4.6

91.7 4.2

92.7 4.3

93.7 4.4

94.8 4.5

95.8 4.5

96.8 4.4

97.8 4.3

38.1 31

38.4 31

38.8 31.3

39.3 31.7

39.7 31.9

40.1 32.1

40.6 32.4

41 32.6

41.4 32.9

41.8 33.1

42.3 33.4

42.7 33.6

43.2 33.8

43.7 34.1

42 2.8

42.4 3.8

42.8 3.5

43.1 3.7

43.5 3.6

43.9 3.5

44.2 3.5

44.6 3.4

44.9 3.4

45.3 3.4

45.8 3.4

46.1 3.5

46.5 3.5

47 3.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

1290 -0.6

1295.7 0.2

1301.1 0.5

1310.7 1.8

1318.3 2.2

1327.2 2.4

1336.1 2.7

1345 2.6

1353.7 2.7

1361 2.5

1369.6 2.5

1379.4 2.6

1389.4 2.6

1398.8 2.8

70.3 -4.1

69.3 -4.7

68.7 -5.2

68.3 -3.9

67.9 -3.3

67.8 -2.1

67.8 -1.3

67.9 -0.6

67.9 0

68 0.3

68 0.4

68.1 0.3

68.3 0.5

68.4 0.6

1219.8 -0.4

1226.4 0.5

1232.5 0.8

1242.4 2.1

1250.4 2.5

1259.4 2.7

1268.3 2.9

1277.1 2.8

1285.8 2.8

1293 2.7

1301.6 2.6

1311.4 2.7

1321.2 2.8

1330.3 2.9

77.4 -5.4

76.7 -4.7

75.9 -4.7

75.6 -4.2

76.4 -1.4

77.3 0.8

78.1 2.9

78.5 3.9

79.1 3.6

79.3 2.6

80.1 2.5

81.1 3.3

82.1 3.8

83 4.6

231.5 -0.7

229.9 -0.7

228.5 -2

229 -1.2

230.1 -0.6

231.6 0.7

232.8 1.9

234.2 2.3

235.3 2.2

235.9 1.9

236.7 1.7

237 1.2

237.3 0.9

237.8 0.8

54.3 148.9 29.4

54.5 149.4 29.4

54.3 149.9 29.2

54.5 151.4 29.2

54.8 152.3 29.4

55 153.5 29.6

55.2 154.1 29.7

55.5 154.5 30

56 154.6 30.2

56.2 154.4 30.4

56.5 154.2 30.6

56.8 153.7 30.8

57.1 153.4 31

57.3 153.1 31.2

30.6 -5.6

30.3 -4

30.1 -3.4

29.9 -3.3

29.9 -2.2

29.9 -1.2

29.9 -0.6

29.9 -0.2

29.9 -0.3

30 0

30.1 0.4

30.1 0.7

30.2 1.1

30.3 1

101.2 0.5

102 2.4

102.8 3

103.7 3.1

104.4 3.2

105.3 3.2

106 3.1

106.6 2.8

107 2.5

107.5 2.1

108.1 2

108.7 2

109.4 2.3

109.9 2.2

286.2 -2.4

291.9 0.1

297.1 2.7

303 6.8

306.7 7.2

311.3 6.6

315.7 6.3

320.8 5.9

326 6.3

330.4 6.1

335.5 6.3

342 6.6

348 6.7

353.7 7.1

167.3 3.1

168.8 2.9

170.5 3.5

173.1 4.5

174.6 4.4

175.4 3.9

176.2 3.3

177.3 2.5

178.2 2.1

178.9 2

179.6 1.9

180.2 1.6

181.3 1.7

182 1.7

123.2 1

123.8 1.9

124.2 1.1

124.5 1

124.4 1

124.5 0.5

124.5 0.3

124.7 0.2

125.1 0.6

125.6 0.9

125.8 1.1

126.2 1.2

126.4 1

126.8 1

47.2 0.8

47.1 0.4

47.2 -1.5

47.3 -0.1

47.2 0.2

47.3 0.3

47.3 0.2

47.4 0.3

47.6 0.7

47.8 1.1

47.8 1.2

47.9 1

47.9 0.6

48 0.5

22.4 5.5

22.4 4.2

22.4 0.7

22.4 0.2

22.4 0.1

22.5 0.4

23.2 3.6

22.9 2.2

22.5 0.7

22.4 -0.2

22.4 -3.5

22.4 -2.2

22.4 -0.7

22.4 0

132.9 1.3

133.4 1.3

133.8 1.6

134 1.7

134.2 1

134.4 0.7

134.6 0.6

134.7 0.6

135 0.6

135.3 0.6

135.6 0.7

135.9 0.8

136.2 0.9

136.6 1

91311.3

91803.7

92027.7

92677.7

93036.6

93627

94223.9

94944

95720.4

96382.8

97155.2

98060.8

99001.1

99839.7

2760.3 1.1

2766.1 1

2771.6 0.9

2777.7 0.9

2784.4 0.9

2791.8 0.9

2800 1

2809 1.1

2819 1.2

2829.2 1.3

2839.3 1.4

2849.6 1.4

2860.3 1.5

2870.9 1.5

1350.9 0.7

1352.8 0.3

1354.1 -0.1

1356.2 0.6

1358.4 0.6

1361.2 0.6

1364.4 0.8

1367.9 0.9

1371.4 1

1375.2 1

1379.5 1.1

1383.7 1.2

1388.1 1.2

1392.8 1.3

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

6.5

6.6

6.7

6.6

6.5

6.4

6.3

6.2

6.1

5.9

6842 4431 2411

8233 5077 3156

9241 5435 3806

10395 6582 3813

10464 7146 3317

11292 8224 3068

12426 9401 3025

13385 10423 2962

14482 11486 2996

15527 12498 3029

16851 13819 3032

18472 15358 3114

19690 16423 3267

20406 16984 3422

*Quarterly an an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r wa t e r

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

September 2008 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $)

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

71.7 4.1 40.2 31.5

74.2 3.4 41.4 32.8

76.5 3.1 41.9 34.6

82.5 7.9 44.9 37.6

89 7.9 48 41

95.7 7.6 51.5 44.2

100.5 5 53.1 47.4

104.7 4.1 54.5 50.2

109.9 5 57.4 52.5

115.9 5.5 60.9 55

122.7 5.8 64.7 58

70.2 2

71.6 2

72.4 1.1

76.1 5.1

79.8 4.8

83.5 4.7

85.5 2.4

85.8 0.4

88.3 2.9

92.2 4.4

96.3 4.4

29.3 28.7

29.8 28.8

30.2 28.6

31.9 29.4

33.6 30.1

35.5 31

36.9 31.3

38 31.1

39.5 31.7

41.2 32.8

43 33.7

33.7 4.6

34.8 3.5

35.1 0.7

36 2.7

37.1 3.1

39.1 5.4

40.5 3.4

41.8 3.3

43.3 3.6

44.8 3.4

46.3 3.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

1182.2 -0.3

1176.1 -0.5

1183.3 0.6

1236.3 4.5

1281.5 3.7

1304.7 1.8

1300.8 -0.3

1292 -0.7

1314.3 1.7

1349 2.6

1384.3 2.6

82.2 -6

78 -5.1

74 -5.1

74.6 0.8

75.3 0.9

76.2 1.2

73.8 -3.2

70.8 -4.1

68.2 -3.7

67.9 -0.4

68.2 0.5

1100 0.2

1098.2 -0.2

1109.3 1

1161.7 4.7

1206.2 3.8

1228.5 1.8

1227 -0.1

1221.2 -0.5

1246.1 2

1281 2.8

1316.1 2.7

63.8 -0.3

65.7 3

68.1 3.7

75.2 10.4

84.4 12.2

90 6.6

83.9 -6.8

78.2 -6.8

76.3 -2.4

78.8 3.3

81.6 3.5

230.4 -3.6

226.3 -1.8

219.8 -2.8

224.8 2.3

232.2 3.3

234.4 1

232.7 -0.7

231.6 -0.5

229.8 -0.8

234.6 2.1

237.2 1.1

54.6 141.9 33.9

53.3 140.9 32.1

50.4 138.7 30.7

50.9 142.3 31.6

52.8 148 31.4

54 150 30.4

54.2 149.6 28.9

54.1 149.1 29.4

54.7 151.8 29.4

55.7 154.4 30.1

56.9 153.6 30.9

38.9 -2

35.8 -7.9

34.6 -3.5

32.9 -4.8

32.7 -0.6

32.6 -0.2

32.3 -0.9

30.8 -4.8

30 -2.5

29.9 -0.3

30.1 0.8

91.6 0.8

91.8 0.3

93.2 1.5

94.8 1.7

98.8 4.2

102 3.3

100.9 -1.1

100.9 0

104 3.1

106.8 2.6

109 2.1

236.6 1.9

232.9 -1.6

243.5 4.5

273.4 12.3

290 6.1

296.7 2.3

294.1 -0.9

287.8 -2.1

304.5 5.8

323.2 6.1

344.8 6.7

137.2 0.1

140.2 2.2

144.8 3.3

149.5 3.2

151.9 1.7

155.6 2.4

162.1 4.2

166.6 2.8

173.4 4.1

177.7 2.5

180.8 1.8

110.5 2.3

111.8 1.1

112.2 0.4

115.8 3.2

119.8 3.4

122 1.8

122.1 0.1

123.3 1

124.4 0.9

125 0.5

126.3 1

44.4 1.1

47 5.7

46.9 -0.2

48.2 2.7

48.4 0.6

46.1 -4.7

46.9 1.6

47.4 1

47.2 -0.3

47.5 0.6

47.9 0.8

18.8 -1.4

19 0.7

19.5 2.8

19.9 2.2

20.8 4.3

21 1.2

21.1 0.7

22.3 5.6

22.4 0.3

22.7 1.6

22.4 -1.6

127.6 3.3

127.7 0.1

126.6 -0.8

127.2 0.4

127.2 0

128.1 0.7

130.9 2.2

132.4 1.1

134.1 1.3

134.9 0.6

136.1 0.9

77330.4

80045.3

83082.8

86655.1

91425.9

93785.3

93305.2

92469.6

92842.3

95317.8

98514.2

2448.9 1.6

2490.7 1.7

2533.7 1.7

2589.7 2.2

2648.7 2.3

2696.4 1.8

2727.8 1.2

2756.8 1.1

2781.4 0.9

2814.3 1.2

2855 1.4

1210.6 0.9

1223 1

1226.3 0.3

1258.5 2.6

1287.4 2.3

1316.1 2.2

1341.7 1.9

1351.6 0.7

1357.5 0.4

1369.7 0.9

1386 1.2

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.3

5.6

5.3

4.5

3.8

3.4

4.2

5.9

6.6

6.3

21762 16438 5324

23639 18032 5608

27283 20013 7270

27279 22068 5211

32762 27605 5158

22881 19469 3412

11546 8513 3033

7915 5025 2891

10348 6847 3501

13955 10952 3003

18855 15646 3209

Florida & Metro Forecast - September 2008

I n d u s t r y L o ca t i o n Q u o t ie n t

Explanation and Interpretation This technique compares the local economy to a reference economy; in this case, the local economy is the chosen MSA, and the reference economy is the state of Florida. An Industry Location Quotient (LQ) is calculated to determine if the local economy has a greater share of each industryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s employment than the reference economy. The LQ helps to identify specializations that exist in the local economy. There are only three possible outcomes: 1. An LQ greater than one 2. An LQ equal to one and 3. An LQ less than one. An LQ that is greater than one means that the share of local employment in that particular industry is greater than the reference economy employment share in that same industry. This implies that some of the goods or services produced by that industry are exported for consumption elsewhere. An LQ of one means that local demand is met by the local industry. No goods/services are imported or exported from the local area in that industry. The share of local employment in that industry is equal to the share for that industry in the reference economy. An LQ less than one implies that the industry is not meeting local demand for that good or service, and in order to meet demand, that area must import that good or service. This also means that the share of local employment in that industry is less than the share of employment in that industry for the reference economy. C a l cu l a t i o n An industry location quotient is a calculated ratio of two ratios. LQ = ((Local employment in industry A in year T / Total local employment in year T) / (Reference economy employment in industry A in year T) / (Total reference employment in year T)) For example: Orlando MSA employment for Information is 27,400 Total Orlando MSA nonagricultural employment is 1,104,100 Florida employment for Information is 169,800 Total Florida nonagricultural employment is 8,247,000 LQ = ((27,400 / 1,104,100) / (169,800 / 8,247,000)) = 1.2039 Source: Florida Regional Economic Database, Current Employment Statistics, December 2006

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

In Appreciation

The UCF College of Business Administration would like to thank Alan C. Charron, â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;84, for his generous gift to the Institute for Economic Competitiveness. His support enables the Institute to publish this forecast and will help fund future activities and research. Charron graduated in 1984 with a degree in finance. He is president of Real Property Specialists, Inc., located in Orlando, Florida. Founded in 1992, Real Property Specialists, Inc., is a fullservice brokerage company that has built a reputation of providing highly personalized service while being responsive and flexible to its clients' individual needs. They offer a range of commercial real estate services in the Central Florida area including brokerage, appraisal, development, property management and tenant representation. Real Property Specialists, Inc., has set a new standard of excellence in client service by providing these key advantages over the competition:

Responsiveness. You work directly with a decision

maker who has the flexibility to immediately attend to your needs.

Consistency. We are a unified firm employing team-

members who are committed to the success of our clients. We pride ourselves on our ability to maintain a dedicated, professional staff that is able to build long-term, comfortable and prosperous relationships with our clients.

Accountability. At Real Property Specialists, our client is the real "Boss." We are accountable to no one other than the client. No company policy interferes with our ability to serve the individual needs of each client. Experience. The staff at Real Property Specialists is

highly qualified, with most associates having more than a decade of experience in the industry. Our personal portfolio of shopping centers gives us first-hand knowledge of what is important when leasing, managing or selling a property.

Appraisers t Brokers t Consultants 6700 Conroy-Windermere Road, Suite 230 | Orlando, FL 32835 407.291.9000 | www.realpropertyspecialists.com

Director, Institute for Economic Competitiveness. Ph.D., Pennsylvania State University 1996; M.A., Pennsylvania State University 1994; B.S., Allegheny College 1989.

Sea n M . S n ait h , P h . D .

We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness:

Sean Snaith is Director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness in the College of Business Administration at the University of Central Florida. Dr. Snaith received his B.S. in Economics from Allegheny College and his M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from Pennsylvania State University. He has taught at Penn State, the American University in Cairo, the University of North Dakota and the University of the Pacific. While at the University of North Dakota, he served as the Director of the Bureau of Business and Economic Research and as Director of the Business Forecasting Center at the University of the Pacific. Snaith also served with International Planning and Research, a Boston area consulting firm, where his work included forecasting, market sizing, economic analyses, and econometric modeling for a variety of clients including IBM, Dell, Compaq, and HewlettPackard. Snaith is a director of the Association of University Business of Economic Research, a member of the National Association of Business Economics, and the American Economics Association. He is also a member of the Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast Panel, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Survey of Professional Forecasters, Livingston Survey, Bloomberg U.S. Economic Indicator Survey and USA Todayâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Quarterly Survey of Top Economists. He is frequently quoted in the media and has published articles on a variety of topics including exchange rate modeling, predicting educational outcomes, the economics of information technology, and telemedicine. For more information Sean Snaith, Director Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida P.O. Box 161400 Orlando, FL 32816 PH: 407.823.1451 FAX: 407.823.1454 EMAIL: ssnaith@bus.ucf.edu www.iec.ucf.edu

U n i v e r s it y o f C e n t r al F l o r ida College of Business Administration Institute for Economic Competitiveness P. O . B o x 1 6 1 4 0 0 , O r l a n d o , F l o r i d a 3 2 8 1 6 PH 407.823.1453

FAX 407.823.1454

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