Florida & Metro Forecast March 2010 2 by UCF College of Business

Florida & Metro Forecast 2010-2013

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

Published March 2010

Message From D ea n T h o ma s L . K e o n

A b o ut U n i v e r s it y o f C e n t r al F l o r ida ( U C F ) T h e Un i ve r s i t y o f C e n t r a l Fl o r i d a i s

Ah, it’s finally springtime in Florida! Our weather was cooler than usual this year and some parts of northern Florida even saw snow! When Florida has cold temperatures, it often affects the rest of the country – just look at the price of tomatoes last month.

a public, multi-campus, metropolitan r e s e a r c h u n i v e r s i t y, d e d i c a t e d t o

But all that is behind us now.

serving its surrounding communities with their diverse and expanding populations, technological corridors, and international partners. The mission of the university is to offer high-quality undergraduate and graduate education, student development, and continuing education; to conduct research and creative activities; and to provide services that enhance the intellectual, cultural, environmental, and economic development of the metropolitan region, address national and international issues in key areas, establish UCF as a major presence, and contribute to the global c o m m u n i t y.

A b o ut t h e C o lle g e o f B u s i n e s s A dmi n i s t r ati o n The College of Business Administration a d v a n c e s t h e u n i v e r s i t y ’s m i s s i o n and goals in providing intellectual leadership through research, teaching, and service. The college is striving to enhance graduate programs, while maintaining the strong undergraduate base. The college delivers research and quality business education programs at the undergraduate, masters, doctoral, and executive levels to citizens of the state of Florida and to select clientele n a t i o n a l l y a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y.

The weather has changed…the season has changed… and so have our clocks. And just like our clocks, it’s time to move forward. As we move forward, we can finally do so with a bit of optimism. It appears Florida’s economy is slowly starting to recover from the recession. We still have a long way to go, but we are on our way. It may be a tough road, but we really do have much to look forward to. We just have to remain patient. In the meantime, Florida has a lot offer this time of year. I hope you are able to get outside and enjoy the beautiful weather. I encourage you to take advantage of the beaches, the theme parks and all the other attractions. Enjoy your spring and I look forward to addressing you in the summer. I hope the news will be even better by then!

n Thomas L . Keo Sincerely,

Thomas L. Keon Dean

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

F lo r i da F o r e c a s t 2010 - 2013 March 2010 Report

Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Elaine Vogt, Administrative Assistant Laura Burkstrand, Researcher Erin Garlow, Researcher Cecilia Chirinos, Researcher McGregor Love, Researcher Evgenia Volkonitskaya, Researcher

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright ÂŠ 2010 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved. This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitivenessâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.

TABLE OF CONTENTS Florida Highlights and Summary........................ 5-10 Florida Forecast Tables...................................... 12-17

Tab l e o f c o n te n t s

Florida Forecast Charts...................................... 19-26 Florida News Summaries....................................... 27 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach.......... 29-33 Gainesville......................................................... 34-38 Jacksonville....................................................... 39-43 Lakeland............................................................ 44-48 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach............... 49-53 Naples-Marco Island......................................... 54-58 Ocala................................................................. 59-63 Orlando-Kissimmee.......................................... 64-68 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville......................... 69-73 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent.............................. 74-78 Tallahassee........................................................ 79-83 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater.................... 84-88 Industry Location Quotient..................................... 89

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y

H i g h l i g ht s o f the F l o r i d a F o r eca s t 2010 -2013 • 2010 marks the start of Florida’s long climb out of recession. In the first year the economy will not have lift. Call it the “unleavened recovery.” • The labor market will remain a sore spot. Unemployment will stay above 12% for all of 2010 and will not fall below 10% until the 2nd quarter of 2012. • Payroll employment in Florida will waffle in 2010 as temporary hiring for the 2010 Census giveth, then taketh away payroll jobs. • For the first year since 2006, payroll employment will end the year at a higher mark than where it began. • Payroll job growth year over year is expected to average 1.4% in 2011, 3.4% in 2012, and 3.6% in 2013. It will be 2014 before payrolls recover to their pre-recession levels. • Flipping is back in vogue in Florida’s housing market, but you will need a mortician’s license to handle these properties. • 2010 will be another difficult year for the housing market, though the worst may be over. Aside from the cash market for foreclosures and the first time homebuyer market, housing remains a languishing part of Florida’s economy. • Unemployment rates are already above 12% but will stabilize in the middle of 2010, with average unemployment peaking at 12.2%. Unemployment will stay above 10% through the 1st quarter of 2012 and will then start a slow decline, reaching 7.9% by the end of 2013. • The sectors forecasted to have the strongest growth during 2010-2013 are Professional and Business Services (6.2%), Manufacturing (1.9%), and Education and Health Services (1.9%). • Florida’s population is expected to stagnate again in 2010 and will stay relatively flat in 2011 before in-migration picks up and population growth slowly climbs to 1.5% in 2013. • Florida’s housing construction sector bottomed out in 2009. Housing starts will climb over the next several years. In 2013, housing starts will recover to 2001 levels, rising gradually to 167,400 starts. • After two years of contracting, real Gross State Product (GSP) will expand 2.1% in 2010 and 2.5% in 2011 before accelerating to 4.5% in 2012, and easing slightly to 4.0% in 2013. The 2010-13 average growth rate will be 3.3%. • Real personal income growth contracted sharply in 2008 and 2009, but growth will begin to accelerate in 2010 to 3.5%. From 2011-2013, personal income growth will average 3.6% and will peak at 4.2% in 2013. • During 2010-2013, retail sales will steadily accelerate after a stuttering first half of 2010. Sales will grow at an average pace of 5.3% as consumer spending finally returns. Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y

Flo r i da’ s Eco n o m y

F l o r i d a’ s U n l eav e n e d Rec o v e r y T he Rece s s i o n i s F i n a l ly O v e r but the E c o n o m y s ti l l ha s n o r ea l l ift

Spring has arrived and it is a time of rebirth, a time for new growth. The winter has passed, and it was a long cold one by Florida’s standards, though friends and family in the north show very little sympathy. Florida’s economy has also emerged from a long, difficult recession and has at long last entered the recovery phase of this cycle. The transition from recession to recovery in Florida has not been sublime, to say the least. Florida’s economy will begin to grow this quarter as measured by real Gross State Product. After more than two years of shrinking, this is a long awaited occurrence. However, the recovery will not be a robust one, and by the 4th quarter of 2010 the economy is expected to be just 1.8% larger than it was in the 4th quarter of 2009. Florida’s recovery simply doesn’t have the yeast that has been an ingredient in previous recoveries. Population growth has stagnated, albeit temporarily. The construction sector continues to profusely bleed jobs, with employment down nearly 17% from a year ago. That steep drop is on top of an equally steep decline a year earlier. We still have the plague of the housing bust to deal with and the bitter herbs of the labor market to remind us of the recession. Recent data on the labor market show a continued rise in the state’s unemployment rate to a level now in excess of 12%, where it will remain throughout 2010.

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

Consequently, the recovery will be flat, at least in its first year. The recession may have passed over, but for now what we have in its place is an unleavened recovery.

Florida’s Housing Market

Housing Starts and Existing Sales Continue to Rise Flipping Makes a Limited Return Engagement Housing starts finally hit the bottom in 2009. It was a long, long way down for housing starts. The low point for starts in 2009 was just under 13% of the peak level seen in 2005—an 87% decline in construction of new single and multi family housing. This prolific decline in building had devastating and long lasting consequences for employment in the housing construction sector. Starts will rise in 2010, but only by a small increment—less than twelve thousand additional single and multi-family starts combined. This growth is welcomed, but will not be sufficient to end the loss of jobs in the Construction sector, as commercial construction has entered its own little corner of Hell. Mortgage rates remain low, but unfortunately many people are unable to get loans. Refinancing is a near impossibility for those who have seen their home’s value plummet over the past several

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y

years and many new mortgage borrowers are also facing difficult credit conditions. The low end of the housing spectrum is benefitting from these low mortgage rates, available credit in the form of FHA backed loans, and the extension of the first time home buyers’ credit, now set to expire at the end of April.

Buyers are scooping up properties at courthouses around the state, and in most cases are selling them at a profit in a few weeks time, at prices that are just a fraction of what these properties sold for just a few years ago. Most of the final buyers are cash buyers, and many are foreign nationals. Prices are trying to find a bottom, and the 12-month moving average of the median sales price continues to fall. In January, that median price fell $9,500 to $130,900. The last time Florida’s housing market experienced median prices this low was in January of 2002.

The Federal Reserve Bank is wrapping up its support of the mortgage-backed securities market, which may put some upward pressure on mortgage rates. Rates are, unfortunately, the least of the problems in housing finance. Once you get outside of the entry home segment of the housing market, credit availability remains fairly grim. Credit is still exceedingly tight for the middle and high end housing markets, and as30000 a 30000 result, these market segments continue to languish. 25000

When you mix tight credit conditions with high, persistent unemployment and Florida’s population 20000 stagnation, you end up with a recipe for the continuation of a struggling housing market. 15000 10000 Figures 1 and 2 display data from the housing market for existing homes as released by the 5000 Florida Association of Realtors (FAR), and cover the housing market through January 2010. Sales0 (Figure 1) have continued to rebound nicely, but median prices (Figure 2) are still searching for a firm bottom to their steep decline.

Prices will likely continue to fall as housing inventories remain elevated across the state, additional foreclosure activity continues to add to 30000 the surplus, and potential buyers continue to face difficulty in getting loans. 25000 The steep drop in prices has stimulated sales. 20000 The 12-month moving average (the smoother of the two lines plotted in Figure 1) of existing15000 home sales in Florida has been bolstered to levels 10000 consistent with Florida’s pre-housing boom levels. 5000

The large number of foreclosures has led to a resurgence of an activity that at one time helped 0 fuel the housing boom: the flipping of real estate.

Figure 1. Housing Sales FAR Data

FloridaFlorida

Single Family, Single Existing Family, Homes Existing Homes

Realtor SalesRealtor Sales

25000

Moving Average Moving Average

20000 15000 10000 5000

Data Source: Florida Realtors

Year

Figure 2. Median Housing Prices FAR Data

FloridaFlorida

Single Family,Homes Existing Homes Single Family, Existing $300,000.00 $250,000.00

Realtor Sales

Median Sales Price

Moving AverageMoving Average

$200,000.00 $150,000.00 $100,000.00 $50,000.00

Data Source: Florida Realtors

$Year

Year

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y

Outlook for Florida 2010-2013

experienced over this last cycle that ranged from the China-like growth rates in 2004-2005, to the contraction in 2009.

Gross State Product Florida’s Economy is Expanding Again

Real disposable income growth, which had been depressed by the floundering economy, will finally show some growth in 2010, expanding at 3.3%. The stronger growth will be short-lived, as tax hikes at the federal and state levels will begin to chip away at disposable incomes in the state. During 2011-2013 real disposable income will increase by an average rate of 2.4% each year. That compares to the average rate of growth during the first seven years of the new decade, prior to the recession, when the average rate of growth for real disposable income stood at 4.8%.

Real Gross State Product (GSP) in Florida, the state-level analogue to real GDP, and also called state GDP, will finally see annual growth in 2010, commencing in the 1st quarter of the year. The shape of the recovery in Florida will also resemble the “Gravy Boat” path of the national economy, which we have discussed in previous U.S. Forecast publications. Growth will be muted in the first two years of recovery, as Florida’s GSP expands at an average rate of 2.3% over 2010-2011. Things will begin to accelerate in 2012-2013, over which growth will average a beefier 4.2%. Nominal Gross State Product is expected to reach nearly $880 billion in 2013, as Florida continues to march inexorably toward becoming a trillion-dollar economy, a threshold that had been getting pushed further into the future by the long, deep recession and gravy boat recovery. We still are forecasting GSP to finally break the trillion-dollar mark in 2017. Whether it is today’s economy of nearly ¾ of a trillion dollars, or the trillion dollar economy that Florida will eventually become, the sunshine state is still one of the world’s largest economies.

Personal Income, Retail Sales, and Auto Sales Personal income growth will resume in 2010 with a healthy 5.1% surge, before easing slightly to 4.3% in 2012, and then accelerating again in 2012-2013. In the last two years of this forecast horizon we expect personal income growth to average a healthy 5.6%. This projected growth lies right in the middle of the range of growth rates 8

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

There remains significant uncertainty in the outlook for disposable income, specifically as it relates to future tax rates at both the federal, state, and local levels. It is possible, perhaps even likely, that future tax hikes will lead to an even higher chunk of income going to the government than we are currently assuming. Hopefully, fiscal sanity or elections will check some of the reckless spending, particularly at the federal level. Consumers in Florida have been beleaguered, much more so than their counterparts around the country, by disappearing home equity and an evaporation of stock market wealth. The stock market has made a strong recovery from the depths of despair at which it wallowed a little more than a year ago. However, that recovery is still well below the pre-crisis levels. The housing market in Florida has had no such run of luck, and the home equity that has been lost over the past several years may take decades to be recouped. The holiday shopping season was a retail sales success by virtue of its comparison to the 4th quarter of 2008, which was a catastrophic drop in retail spending. However, this is not saying much. In an absolute sense, it was yet another horrible season for retail.

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y

Double digit unemployment will weigh on consumer spending, but as the labor market stabilizes, it will help bolster consumer confidence. Pent-up demand and a clearer sense that their jobs are safe will help unlock some of the consumer spending that job insecurity inhibited.

when job growth versus a year ago is expected to come in at 1.4%. Payroll job growth will reach 3.4% in 2012 before accelerating to 3.6% in 2013. Despite the acceleration of job growth it will still be 2014 before payroll employment levels return to their pre-recession peak.

Retail sales in Florida will grow slightly in the first half of 2010. Once the labor market has fully stabilized and begins its long path to recovery after the 2nd quarter of 2010, retail spending will begin to accelerate. We expect retail sales to expand from the 3rd quarter of 2010 going forward through the end of our forecast horizon. The average quarterly growth rate will be nearly 5.7% over this time frame. Retail sales will reach their prerecession peak in the 4th quarter of 2011.

The Construction sector, which has been in near free fall after peaking during the housing boom, will continue to show the painful effects of a pitiful housing market, the credit freeze, and an emerging crisis in the commercial construction market. Any job creation from the shovel-ready projects that will be funded by the federal economic stimulus plan will help resurrect some jobs in this sector. We expect that it will be mid-2011 before this sector starts to add jobs once again.

The recession, credit crunch, volatile energy prices, and a collapsing domestic automotive industry did conspire to bring average new passenger car and truck registrations down overall in 2009 for a fourth straight year. Registrations will begin to climb once again in 2010, but will not reach the “cash for clunkers” levels until the 3rd quarter of 2010. Consumers have been nursing older cars along, and as the same drivers of overall retail sales begin to gel, sales of new passenger vehicles and light trucks should surge and continue to grow at a double digit rate until the middle of 2013, when registrations will decelerate.

The bottom of the residential real estate market will give way to tepid growth in housing starts, but it will not be enough to have a major impact on employment in this sector. Despite the economic stimulus bill, this sector will continue to be the worst-performing sector in the state’s economy on average through 2013, as far as job growth is concerned. Cumulative job losses in the sector have been catastrophic. It will likely be 18-20 years before the Construction sector has payroll employment levels back at the pre-recession peaks hit in 2006.

Employment Overall payroll employment growth in the state is expected to shrink by 4.6% for 2009 versus a year ago. This comes after contracting at a -3.2% rate in 2008 compared to 2007. Job losses in Florida will persist through the 1st quarter of 2010. Even though payrolls will begin to grow in 2010, the average level of employment in 2010 will still be below the average for 2009. While payroll growth will finally take root in 2010, it will only gain momentum in 2011, a year

Job growth will not return to the Construction sector until the 2nd quarter of 2011. Growth rates are expected to surge to 7.4% in 2012 and 9.1% in 2013 when the commercial sector will also be in recovery, the full force of the stimulus spending is felt, and the economic recovery expansion is in full swing. This recession has seen job losses that have transcended virtually all sectors of the economy. Many white collar job losses are reflected in the performance of the Professional and Business Services sector. Now that Florida’s economy has exited the recession, and after a slow first Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y

few quarters of recovery, this sector will once again show robust growth in Florida. Job gains accelerate from that point and rise to 6.3% in 2011, 8.2% in 2012, and 8.3% in 2013. This sector will recover more quickly than others, and will get back to pre-recession levels of employment in the middle of 2012. The Information sector will continue to shed jobs through the middle of 2010. Newspapers continue to struggle amidst the structural change gripping the industry. Advertising revenues have fallen off dramatically, thanks in large part to the ongoing woes of the automotive industry, and several major newspapers and publishing groups are teetering on the edge of bankruptcy. All of these outlets are still trying to figure out a model that will work in the Internet Age, and most models now have journalists multi-tasking and feature a combination of print, Internet, and Internet 2.0. Advertising via a banner ad on a website simply does not bring in the level of revenue that full page print ads do. Unfortunately, circulation is shrinking as more and more people get information via the web, Facebook, or Twitter. Meager job growth will return in the second half of 2010. 2011 will be the first full year of job growth in this sector after nine of the ten prior years yielded job losses, including five straight years of job losses leading up to 2011. Job growth will jump to 3.0% in 2011 and more or less stabilize around 2.2% in 2012-2013. The one sector that continued to create jobs during the recession and that is expected to continue to expand through the end of our forecast horizon is the Health and Education sector. During 2010-2013, employment in this sector is expected to expand at an average rate of 1.9%. The average growth rate for overall payroll employment during the same time frame is expected to be 1.8%.

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

It is still difficult to tell exactly how healthcare reform will manifest itself in Florida, but clearly, with expanded coverage and an aging population in Florida, it appears that demand for health services will remain strong in the foreseeable future. This rising demand should continue to drive job growth in this sector. The possibility of Medicare cuts, however, does raise a specter of concern about this sectorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s future in Florida. Manufacturing will continue to contract in Florida through the 2nd quarter of 2010. Globalization and productivity gains in manufacturing have combined to severely reduce employment in this sector. This sector is emerging from an extremely challenging period leaner than it ever has been, and as competitive as it has been in many years. This will help drive job growth as exports continue to rise. We are expecting to see job growth of 3.3% in this sector for the full year in 2011, followed by an even stronger year of job growth in 2012, when manufacturing employment will expand at a rate of 5.0%. For the first time in decades, manufacturing is expected to gain jobs in three consecutive years, as 2013 job growth is expected to be 3.8%.

Unemployment Unemployment rates in the Florida have surged from record low levels of just 3.4% in 2006 to greater than 12% at present. Robust growth had sharply and quickly ratcheted down the unemployment rate, and when that growth faded, the unemployment rate began to soar. Floridaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s unemployment rate, once more than a full percentage point below the historically low national unemployment rate, now has risen above the near double digit rate of national unemployment. Both will peak in 2010, and both

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will be slow to decline. Moderate growth will chip away at Floridaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s unemployment rate but cannot ratchet it down dramatically. How high will unemployment get? We are expecting unemployment to average 12.2% in the 3rd quarter of 2010 and remain above 10% until the 2nd quarter of 2012. Thereafter, unemployment will begin a slow decline through the end of 2013. By the end of that year unemployment will still be uncomfortably high, at 7.9%. The problem of underemployment and marginally attached workersâ&#x20AC;&#x201C;those who are neither working nor looking for work, but indicate that they want and are available for a job, and have looked for work sometime in the past 12 monthsâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;and those who have given up searching for a job, is substantial and will be a factor behind the persistently high unemployment rate. When adding these workers to the top level unemployment figure, this broader measure of unemployment paints a grimmer picture of labor markets, and is over 18% in Florida according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s

Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch Year ago)

508.4 4.3 2.0 492.2 2.9 3.8 441.7 5.2 3.3 522.7 5.1 497.3 2.6

531.2 4.5 3.5 504.0 2.4 2.5 459.0 3.9 2.5 559.0 6.9 520.4 4.6

582.8 9.7 6.0 538.8 6.9 10.1 487.9 6.3 3.4 607.3 8.6 548.6 5.4

633.2 8.7 5.5 568.4 5.5 4.3 506.9 3.9 1.3 670.0 10.3 589.3 7.4

Personal Income and GSP 690.3 713.5 719.7 703.3 9.0 3.4 0.9 -2.3 7.5 5.6 2.9 -1.4 603.1 607.2 592.6 578.0 6.1 0.7 -2.4 -2.5 7.6 -4.2 0.1 -4.3 537.3 537.5 531.1 532.5 6.0 0.1 -1.2 0.3 4.0 2.2 0.5 1.3 721.4 741.9 744.1 727.6 7.7 2.8 0.3 -2.2 613.6 613.4 603.5 583.5 4.1 0.0 -1.6 -3.3

739.1 5.1 3.8 597.9 3.5 5.0 549.9 3.3 2.0 750.9 3.2 596.1 2.1

770.7 4.3 4.1 614.4 2.8 5.7 560.1 1.9 1.6 781.7 4.1 610.9 2.5

813.0 5.5 5.2 638.3 3.9 5.7 575.4 2.7 2.5 828.6 6.0 638.1 4.5

860.0 5.8 5.3 665.1 4.2 5.8 590.1 2.6 2.2 877.4 5.9 663.6 4.0

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

0.5 1.6 5.7 5.8

1.6 1.2 5.3 6.0

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) 2.7 3.8 3.5 1.5 -0.7 -4.7 -2.6 1.3 2.1 2.9 3.0 2.2 1.6 -0.1 -0.9 0.4 4.7 3.8 3.4 4.1 6.2 10.5 12.1 11.2 5.5 5.1 4.6 4.6 5.8 9.3 10.0 9.6

3.0 1.2 9.7 8.5

3.2 1.7 8.3 7.6

2.9 3.4 0.1 7.4 5.0 0.6 7.0 5.7 4.5 2.3 2.6 8.2 2.4 1.3 2.1 -1.3 1.1

2.5 3.6 -0.1 9.1 3.8 -0.4 5.6 4.2 3.6 2.2 1.7 8.3 1.6 2.6 2.3 -0.5 2.4

Total nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't. Population (thous.) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous.) (%Ch Year ago) Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous.) Housing Starts Single Family (thous.) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous.) (%Ch Year ago)

2007

2008

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) -1.1 0.1 -10.3 1.1 -5.8 -3.6 -7.0 -2.8 -0.2 -1.2 1.2 0.2 2.7 0.4 -5.7 0.4 1.7

-0.3 1.1 -1.2 3.8 -4.2 -3.3 -4.7 -3.2 0.5 -0.2 2.2 1.5 3.7 1.8 -3.7 3.4 1.1

1.1 3.4 0.2 9.4 0.2 -2.1 1.4 1.6 3.4 2.7 3.8 5.8 3.0 4.4 -2.1 0.4 1.4

1.7 4.0 -0.8 11.4 1.2 -1.8 2.6 3.8 4.1 4.1 5.0 7.1 2.5 2.7 0.2 1.5 1.4

1.8 2.6 -6.5 7.2 0.2 -2.0 1.3 1.5 2.9 2.0 3.2 4.2 2.7 1.5 -0.9 -0.8 2.0

1.1 0.2 1.6 -8.8 -4.2 -1.5 -5.4 0.1 1.5 0.5 -1.0 0.7 3.1 2.0 -0.3 0.2 2.4

-0.6 -3.2 -5.2 -17.1 -6.6 -6.3 -6.8 -2.8 -2.4 -2.9 -3.7 -5.3 2.3 -1.4 -3.5 1.3 0.4

-4.3 -4.6 -3.4 -16.5 -10.8 -10.7 -10.8 -5.3 -3.4 -5.7 -4.5 -7.2 1.1 -3.3 -6.6 -0.3 -0.7

-0.9 -1.1 -7.4 -10.3 -4.5 -3.9 -4.8 -5.1 -1.6 -2.5 -3.2 2.2 1.8 0.5 -3.6 5.2 -1.5

1.4 1.4 -1.5 -0.3 3.3 -0.4 5.2 2.3 1.5 0.0 -0.4 6.3 1.9 0.3 3.0 -5.5 -1.0

Population and Migration 16,715.9 17,035.6 17,426.5 17,814.9 18,104.7 18,293.3 18,436.1 18,554.2 18,529.0 18,616.4 18,824.7 19,107.3 2.0 1.9 2.3 2.2 1.6 1.0 0.8 0.6 -0.1 0.5 1.1 1.5 68.7 76.1 88.5 74.0 44.3 22.7 -19.8 -31.4 -27.8 19.2 46.9 60.9 -1.1 11.9 18.6 -16.2 -41.8 -47.2 -194.9 -44.2 -73.8 200.3 204.6 30.3 182.7 133.6 49.1

207.7 159.9 47.9

238.8 183.1 55.6

272.9 211.6 61.3

204.8 156.3 48.5

Housing 101.6 62.2 74.8 42.0 26.8 20.2

34.5 27.1 7.4

46.3 38.1 8.2

100.0 86.9 13.1

143.9 121.7 22.3

167.4 134.4 33.0

1.7

2.7

2.9

4.6

4.1

Consumer Prices 3.3 4.2

-0.4

1.7

1.8

2.0

1.9

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s

Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch Year ago)

726.0 3.8 3.3 588.9 1.7 3.3 541.8 1.7 1.9 743.5 2.6 593.2 2.0

734.9 4.7 3.5 596.1 2.9 5.8 548.3 2.8 1.4 747.2 3.3 594.4 2.4

744.2 5.9 4.2 601.4 4.4 5.5 553.5 4.4 2.4 753.2 3.6 596.9 2.4

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

-4.0 -1.1 12.0 10.0

-3.1 -1.0 12.1 10.1

-2.2 -0.8 12.2 10.1

Total nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't. Population (thous.) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous.) (%Ch Year ago) Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous.) Housing Starts Single Family (thous Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous.) (%Ch Year ago)

751.6 6.0 4.2 605.4 4.8 5.3 556.1 4.1 2.3 759.6 3.2 599.7 1.8

758.9 4.5 4.1 608.8 3.4 5.2 554.3 2.3 1.8 768.1 3.3 603.4 1.7

Personal Income and GSP 765.7 774.1 784.0 795.3 4.2 4.0 4.3 4.8 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.6 611.9 615.8 621.2 627.8 2.7 2.4 2.6 3.1 5.5 6.1 6.2 6.1 557.6 561.6 566.9 567.7 1.7 1.5 1.9 2.4 1.4 1.4 1.8 2.2 775.5 785.9 797.4 809.8 3.8 4.3 5.0 5.4 607.2 613.1 620.0 627.0 2.2 2.7 3.4 3.9

807.4 5.4 5.2 635.2 3.8 5.9 573.6 2.9 2.6 821.9 6.0 634.4 4.5

819.0 5.8 5.4 641.9 4.2 5.5 578.1 2.9 2.7 834.7 6.2 641.8 4.7

830.1 5.9 5.6 648.2 4.3 5.5 582.4 2.7 2.5 847.8 6.3 649.3 4.7

841.7 5.8 5.4 654.8 4.3 5.6 583.4 2.8 2.5 860.3 6.2 655.0 4.5

853.8 5.7 5.3 661.6 4.2 5.8 586.9 2.3 2.0 871.7 6.1 660.9 4.2

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) -1.0 0.4 1.1 1.7 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.2 -0.5 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.3 12.0 11.7 11.4 11.1 10.7 10.3 9.9 9.4 10.0 9.9 9.7 9.5 9.2 9.0 8.7 8.3

3.3 1.4 9.0 8.1

3.4 1.5 8.7 7.8

3.3 1.6 8.4 7.6

3.0 3.7 -0.1 8.5 4.6 0.1 6.7 5.2 4.0 2.5 2.6 8.4 2.0 2.7 2.1 -0.8 1.9

2.8 3.8 -0.2 9.0 4.3 -0.2 6.3 4.8 3.9 2.3 2.3 8.7 1.7 2.9 2.1 -0.7 2.3

2.6 3.7 0.0 9.3 4.2 -0.4 6.2 4.4 3.7 2.2 1.9 8.6 1.6 2.8 2.3 -0.6 2.4

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) -2.5 -2.4 -7.3 -11.1 -9.3 -7.3 -10.3 -6.3 -2.1 -4.3 -4.7 0.1 0.8 -1.1 -3.6 0.6 -1.2

-1.0 -1.2 -7.6 -10.5 -5.7 -4.2 -6.5 -5.5 -1.9 -3.7 -3.2 1.2 2.1 1.1 -5.5 13.0 -1.0

-0.2 -0.5 -8.0 -12.0 -3.1 -2.8 -3.2 -4.6 -1.3 -1.6 -2.3 3.4 2.6 1.1 -3.1 5.7 -1.8

0.2 -0.2 -6.9 -7.8 0.0 -1.3 0.6 -4.1 -1.2 -0.5 -2.8 3.9 1.4 1.0 -2.1 1.5 -2.0

0.7 0.5 -3.1 -5.1 1.6 -1.3 3.0 -1.1 -1.2 -0.2 -2.0 5.3 1.3 1.1 0.2 -0.6 -1.7

1.0 0.9 -2.1 -2.0 3.0 -0.8 4.9 1.3 0.3 -0.1 -1.1 5.8 1.7 0.7 4.1 -12.1 -1.3

1.7 1.7 -0.8 1.8 4.1 -0.1 6.2 3.8 2.6 -0.1 0.1 6.7 2.1 -0.2 4.4 -6.5 -0.8

2.3 2.4 -0.1 3.9 4.7 0.6 6.6 5.2 4.2 0.6 1.7 7.4 2.4 -0.3 3.2 -2.6 -0.2

2.6 2.9 0.2 5.9 5.2 0.9 7.3 6.1 5.1 1.6 2.3 7.5 2.8 0.1 2.6 -1.8 0.2

2.9 3.4 0.2 7.3 5.1 0.8 7.1 6.0 4.9 2.5 2.6 8.2 2.6 0.7 1.9 -1.3 0.9

2.9 3.6 0.0 8.1 5.0 0.6 7.0 5.5 4.1 2.8 2.7 8.6 2.2 1.7 1.7 -1.1 1.4

Population and Migration

18,535.1 18,516.5 18,520.3 18,544.3 18,568.6 18,592.7 18,627.4 18,677.0 18,731.5 18,791.0 18,854.4 18,921.7 18,993.0 19,067.3

0.1 -79.0 -434.7

-0.1 -32.5 -29.0

-0.3 -10.0 58.5

-0.3 10.2 110.2

0.2 10.4 113.2

35.2 26.6 8.6

39.2 31.6 7.6

48.1 40.9 7.2

62.9 53.3 9.6

2.1

1.8

1.6

1.2

0.4 10.2 131.4

0.6 20.8 307.6

0.7 35.6 249.1

0.9 40.5 289.0

1.1 45.3 344.0

1.2 49.1 136.6

1.3 52.9 48.7

1.4 56.8 40.3

1.5 59.6 31.5

77.7 67.0 10.7

Housing 93.2 108.2 81.3 94.6 11.9 13.6

120.8 104.6 16.1

129.6 111.5 18.1

139.8 119.8 20.0

149.9 126.3 23.6

156.5 129.1 27.3

161.0 130.8 30.1

166.0 133.3 32.7

1.3

Consumer Prices 1.8 2.0

2.1

2.0

1.9

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s

Table 3. Employment Quarterly* 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7,317.2 7,321.1 7,317.2 7,326.8 7,351.6 7,387.1 7,439.3 7,501.9 7,565.9 7,636.6 7,708.0 7,781.8 7,852.4 7,921.1

Manufacturing

316.8

316.1

316.5

319.3

321.8

325.5

329.6

334.1

338.6

341.9

346.0

349.6

353.2

356.3

Durable Goods

211.8

211.4

212.4

215.6

218.1

221.7

225.6

229.8

234.0

237.3

241.4

245.2

248.9

252.1

9.1

9.2

9.4

9.7

10.0

10.4

10.9

11.3

11.7

11.9

12.1

12.4

12.5

12.6

Computer & Electronics

43.1

43.7

44.6

45.1

45.0

44.6

44.4

44.2

43.8

44.4

44.8

45.6

45.8

Transportation Equipment

38.5

38.4

39.0

39.4

39.9

40.5

41.5

42.5

43.4

44.2

45.0

45.7

46.4

105.0

104.7

104.1

103.7

103.6

103.8

104.0

104.3

104.5

104.6

104.5

104.4

104.2

26.1

26.0

25.9

25.8

25.7

25.6

25.5

25.4

Wood Products

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

7,000.4 7,005.0 7,000.7 7,007.5 7,029.8 7,061.7 7,109.7 7,167.7 7,227.4 7,294.7 7,362.0 7,432.2 7,499.1 7,564.9 5.8

5.7

5.6

Construction

395.6

385.8

376.5

375.4

375.3

378.0

383.3

390.1

397.3

405.8

414.2

423.2

432.9

443.4

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

221.7

219.4

217.8

219.2

222.3

226.0

229.2

232.5

235.6

238.5

241.2

243.6

246.0

Wholesale Trade

333.0

332.0

329.8

328.7

329.1

333.1

338.4

342.3

345.9

349.3

352.3

356.1

359.5

362.2

Retail Trade

909.0

906.5

908.4

909.2

906.9

905.2

907.5

914.8

921.0

928.2

932.9

937.7

942.3

948.5

Information

142.3

138.6

139.0

140.7

142.5

144.3

145.1

146.3

147.0

147.5

148.2

149.4

150.3

Prof. & Business Services

1,072.0 1,080.5 1,090.0 1,107.8 1,128.7 1,143.1 1,162.7 1,190.2 1,213.6 1,237.2 1,262.9 1,290.2 1,318.6 1,343.6

Admin. & Support

550.9

562.3

572.4

587.6

605.9

615.9

630.8

652.6

671.1

690.2

710.8

732.6

754.5

773.6

Prof. Sci & Tech

438.1

434.4

433.1

435.1

437.3

441.1

445.5

450.7

455.0

459.0

463.5

468.4

474.5

479.9

83.0

83.8

84.5

85.0

85.6

86.1

86.4

86.9

87.4

88.1

88.6

89.1

89.6

90.1

Financial Activities

491.6

488.8

486.0

481.5

481.7

483.2

486.3

489.5

492.6

495.9

499.5

502.4

504.1

505.3

Real Estate & Rent

163.4

162.5

161.5

160.6

161.5

162.6

163.9

165.4

166.7

168.0

169.4

170.3

171.1

171.8

328.1

326.3

324.5

320.8

320.1

320.7

322.4

324.1

325.9

327.9

330.1

332.1

333.0

333.5

Mgmt. of Co.

Fin. & Insurance Edu. & Health Service

1,071.1 1,074.5 1,080.8 1,083.6 1,085.3 1,093.0 1,103.2 1,109.6 1,115.5 1,121.9 1,127.2 1,131.9 1,134.7 1,139.7

Education Services

139.5

139.1

139.7

139.9

140.2

140.1

139.9

139.7

139.8

139.9

Health Services

931.6

935.4

941.0

943.7

945.1

952.9

963.3

969.7

975.8

982.2

987.5

992.2

994.9

999.8

Leisure & Hospitality

909.9

914.0

920.3

920.2

920.0

920.7

918.6

917.1

920.6

926.9

933.9

941.5

947.7

952.9

Other Services

334.0

334.2

336.1

336.9

338.5

338.7

339.0

339.6

340.0

340.2

341.0

342.0

342.8

343.2

Government

1,114.4 1,125.2 1,110.4 1,100.2 1,096.9 1,094.4 1,093.9 1,094.5 1,096.5 1,101.1 1,106.4 1,112.1 1,118.1 1,124.2

Federal Gov't.

130.2

146.1

136.7

130.7

129.4

128.4

127.8

127.4

127.0

126.7

126.5

126.3

126.1

126.0

State & Local Gov't.

984.2

979.1

973.6

969.5

967.5

966.0

966.1

967.1

969.4

974.4

980.0

985.8

991.9

998.2

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s

Table 4. Employment Annual 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7,169.0 7,250.4 7,499.3 7,800.0 8,002.4 8,018.5 7,761.1 7,401.8 7,320.6

7420 7,673.1 7,949.2

Manufacturing

428.0

409.8

410.7

415.5

416.4

399.0

372.6

332.6

317.2

327.7

344.0

357.0

Durable Goods

283.4

270.0

273.8

281.0

284.6

269.2

250.9

224.0

212.8

223.8

239.5

252.9

Wood Products

18.0

17.8

20.3

22.4

21.6

17.0

12.8

9.4

9.3

10.6

12.0

12.6

Computer & Electronics

59.7

53.4

52.5

51.4

50.1

49.2

48.0

45.8

44.1

44.6

44.3

45.7

Transportation Equipment Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

44.9

43.7

44.4

45.6

45.7

44.6

42.5

39.9

38.6

40.3

43.8

46.6

144.6

139.8

136.9

134.5

131.8

129.8

121.7

108.7

104.4

103.9

104.6

104.1

25.7

25.6

25.4

32.3

31.2

31.3

29.5

27.0

25.9

25.7

25.6

25.4

7,092.2 7,329.1 7,592.3 7,384.6 7,586.0 7,619.5 7,388.5 7,069.2 7,014.6 7,109.1 7,347.2 7,610.8 5.6

5.6

7.1

6.6

6.7

6.4

6.2

5.7

5.6

Construction

381.7

410.1

447.5

633.1

677.9

618.6

512.8

427.6

383.7

382.5

411.1

448.6

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

224.2

237.0

247.0

247.3

250.9

251.0

244.1

231.0

220.2

225.7

238.6

248.7

Wholesale Trade

335.7

350.9

363.4

341.4

351.4

356.7

348.1

336.3

331.0

335.9

351.1

363.6

Retail Trade

930.7

928.4

953.7

993.1 1,012.8 1,017.5

988.2

932.0

908.3

908.6

929.9

950.2

Information

172.8

166.3

162.9

163.2

155.6

145.3

140.1

144.3

147.3

150.6

Prof. & Business Services

161.7

161.3

1,004.9 1,020.3 1,079.5 1,155.5 1,203.6 1,211.9 1,147.5 1,064.7 1,087.6 1,156.2 1,251.0 1,354.5

Admin. & Support

557.2

563.6

600.5

646.7

672.8

670.8

610.9

547.6

568.3

626.3

701.2

781.4

Prof. Sci & Tech

376.8

384.9

404.0

431.2

451.5

460.1

454.8

437.0

435.2

443.7

461.5

482.8

Mgmt. of Co. Financial Activities

70.9

71.8

75.0

77.7

79.4

81.0

81.8

80.0

84.1

86.2

88.3

90.3

481.1

491.8

510.4

535.8

552.6

547.2

526.9

503.3

486.9

485.2

497.6

506.2

Real Estate & Rent

154.5

157.7

166.5

176.6

182.4

178.1

173.2

168.0

162.0

163.4

168.6

172.3

Fin. & Insurance

326.6

334.1

343.9

359.1

370.2

369.2

353.7

335.3

324.9

321.8

329.0

333.9

Edu. & Health Service

884.9

917.5

944.7

967.8

993.6 1,024.1 1,047.3 1,058.9 1,077.5 1,097.8 1,124.1 1,141.9

Education Services

101.5

110.0

118.7

124.6

128.3

134.1

137.9

137.3

139.6

140.0

139.7

Health Services

783.3

807.5

826.0

843.3

865.3

890.0

909.4

921.6

937.9

957.8

984.4 1,002.1

139.9

Leisure & Hospitality

846.4

862.0

899.9

924.3

937.7

956.4

942.9

911.5

916.1

919.1

930.7

954.8

Other Services

315.3

322.3

329.4

334.9

338.0

345.6

340.7

331.4

335.3

339.0

340.8

343.6

Government

1,039.2 1,053.0 1,066.3 1,081.1 1,099.1 1,122.6 1,128.1 1,120.9 1,112.6 1,094.9 1,104.0 1,126.8

Federal Gov't.

122.2

126.3

126.8

128.7

127.7

128.0

129.6

129.2

135.9

128.3

126.6

State & Local Gov't.

917.0

926.8

939.5

952.4

971.4

994.6

998.4

991.6

976.6

966.7

977.4 1,000.8

126.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s

Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly* 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

725.95

734.90

744.16

751.58

758.93

765.71

774.12

783.95

795.30

807.41

818.98

830.13

841.71

853.83

Wages & Salaries

327.66

330.67

333.61

336.10

339.14

341.93

345.62

350.00

355.02

360.04

365.42

371.18

377.47

383.41

Other Labor Income

74.38

74.61

75.25

75.96

76.68

77.50

78.43

79.52

80.76

82.07

83.42

84.77

86.13

87.51

Nonfarm

39.68

40.43

40.77

41.29

41.94

42.65

43.37

44.03

44.61

45.30

45.90

46.65

47.31

48.11

0.30

0.32

0.39

0.44

0.45

0.47

0.48

0.47

0.46

0.47

0.49

0.50

0.52

0.53

Farm Property Income

177.23

179.86

183.29

186.24

189.24

190.85

193.22

196.64

201.03

206.15

210.65

214.49

218.58

222.39

Transfer Payments

155.89

159.22

161.61

162.89

163.85

165.28

166.43

167.33

168.80

169.51

170.15

170.55

171.17

172.23

Social Insurance

51.26

52.33

52.91

53.51

54.57

55.20

55.68

56.34

57.68

58.46

59.42

60.39

61.88

62.79

Personal Income

588.88

596.06

601.39

605.40

608.82

611.91

615.78

621.21

627.78

635.22

641.88

648.23

654.76

661.63

Wages & Salaries

265.79

268.20

269.61

270.73

272.06

273.25

274.93

277.34

280.24

283.26

286.40

289.84

293.63

297.10

Billions 2000 Dollars

Other Labor Income

60.34

60.52

60.81

61.18

61.51

61.93

62.39

63.01

63.75

64.57

65.38

66.19

67.00

67.81

Nonfarm

32.18

32.80

32.95

33.26

33.65

34.09

34.50

34.89

35.22

35.64

35.98

36.43

36.80

37.28

0.24

0.26

0.32

0.35

0.36

0.38

0.37

0.36

0.37

0.38

0.39

0.41

Property Income

Farm

143.76

145.88

148.13

150.02

151.81

152.51

153.70

155.82

158.68

162.19

165.09

167.49

170.03

172.33

Transfer Payments

126.46

129.14

130.61

131.21

131.44

132.08

132.39

132.60

133.24

133.36

133.17

133.15

133.46

41.58

42.44

42.76

43.10

43.78

44.11

44.29

44.64

45.53

46.00

46.57

47.15

48.14

48.65

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

802.10

812.73

838.60

886.77

903.35

Retail Sales (Billions $)

248.93

249.71

253.94

257.58

260.72

264.17

268.70

274.00

278.49

282.38

285.91

289.49

293.02

296.52

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

201.93

202.54

205.22

207.48

209.15

211.11

213.74

217.12

219.83

222.16

224.08

226.05

227.94

229.77

Social Insurance

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

960.51 1012.00 1067.72 1113.69 1147.06 1180.31 1210.77 1247.46 1281.29

F l o r i d a Su m m a r y T ab l e s

Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Personal Income

508.40

531.22

582.77

633.20

690.27

713.49

Wages & Salaries

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

719.71

703.31

739.15

770.68

812.96

859.98 386.19

Billions Current Dollars 250.91

264.52

285.62

310.34

333.10

343.33

339.10

325.03

332.01

344.17

362.92

Other Labor Income

53.34

59.15

63.35

69.52

72.91

73.58

73.70

73.62

75.05

78.03

82.76

88.21

Nonfarm

34.80

36.32

39.55

42.00

45.12

42.61

41.73

39.66

40.54

43.00

45.62

48.44

Farm Property Income

1.31

1.10

0.99

1.47

1.23

0.84

0.64

0.53

0.36

0.47

0.48

0.53

123.83

122.75

142.66

156.37

181.69

190.85

191.21

175.55

181.66

192.49

208.08

224.56

Transfer Payments

79.84

84.88

91.32

98.06

104.41

111.50

122.57

136.86

159.90

165.72

169.75

172.76

Social Insurance

37.16

39.04

42.31

46.20

49.91

51.13

51.23

49.97

52.50

55.45

58.99

63.17

Billions 2000 Dollars Personal Income

492.17

503.98

538.75

568.40

603.11

607.17

592.64

578.00

597.93

614.43

638.28

665.07

Wages & Salaries

242.90

250.96

264.05

278.59

291.05

292.18

279.24

267.12

268.58

274.40

284.94

298.66

Other Labor Income

51.63

56.12

58.57

62.40

63.71

62.62

60.69

60.51

60.71

62.21

64.97

68.22

Nonfarm

33.69

34.46

36.57

37.70

39.42

36.27

34.36

32.59

32.80

34.28

35.82

37.46

Farm Property Income

1.26

1.04

0.91

1.32

1.07

0.71

0.53

0.44

0.29

0.37

0.38

0.41

119.89

116.46

131.87

140.35

158.73

162.41

157.45

144.29

146.95

153.46

163.36

173.66

Transfer Payments

77.29

80.53

84.43

88.03

91.23

94.88

100.92

112.46

129.35

132.13

133.28

133.61

Social Insurance

35.98

37.04

39.12

41.47

43.61

43.51

42.18

41.07

42.47

44.21

46.31

48.86

1302.63 1397.29 1442.73 1449.69 1416.66 1242.20

951.97

733.42

835.05

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

985.90 1162.96 1288.84

Retail Sales (Billions $)

196.65

207.15

225.75

245.91

264.17

267.37

260.72

242.20

252.54

266.90

284.07

297.94

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

190.37

196.53

208.70

220.76

230.83

227.53

214.69

199.04

204.29

212.78

223.03

230.42

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

on & Health ployment

ds)

March 2010

cha r t s

07 08 09 10 11 12 13

F l o r i d a F OR E C A S T

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Personal Income 12% 10% 8% 7% 5% 3% 1% -0% -2% -4%

(% change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Florida Real Gross State Product 10%

(% change year ago)

8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate

Florida Construction Employment (Thousands)

700.0 650.0 600.0 550.0 500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Manufacturing Employment 500.0

(Thousands)

450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment 1650.0

(Thousands)

1600.0 1550.0 1500.0 1450.0 1400.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Financial Activities Employment (Thousands)

560.0 540.0 520.0 500.0 480.0 460.0 440.0 420.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Florida Professional & Business Services Employment (Thousands)

1400.0 1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0 700.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Education & Health Services Employment 1200.0 1150.0 1100.0 1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0 750.0

(Thousands)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Florida Information Employment 190.0

(Thousands)

180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Education & Health Services Employment 1200.0 1150.0 1100.0 1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0 750.0

(Thousands)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Florida Federal Government Employment (Thousands)

150.0 145.0 140.0 135.0 130.0 125.0 120.0 115.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Florida State & Local Government Employment (Thousands)

1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Housing Starts (thousands)

300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Total Private Housing Starts 30 year Mortgage Rates

8.5% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5%

New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50%

(% change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Florida Leisure & Hospitality Employment 1000.0

(Thousands)

950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0 750.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

F l o r i d a C ha r t s

Florida Gross State Product 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

(% change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Gross State Product

Florida Employment (Thousands)

8500.0 8000.0 7500.0 7000.0 6500.0 6000.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Wage & Salary Employment

Florida Consumer Price Index (% change year ago)

6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL CPI

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

F l o r i d a Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Florida schools face money crunch as enrollment rises • After four years of dropping enrollment rates, Florida has seen an unanticipated increase this 2009-2010 school year of 12,310 students. • The Florida School Board Association attributes this rise in public school enrollment to the decline in private school enrollment, as some families hurt by the economy can no longer afford private school tuition. • A count in October 2009 of total public school enrollment came in at 2.62 million students. • Officials say that lawmakers will ask for $20 million to pay for the new students, and if the funds cannot be obtained, more programs, student resources, and operating expenses will have to be cut. Source: Pensacola News Journal, January 9, 2010 Fish farms could fail without federal help • The tropical fish industry in Florida is expected to see a loss of 75%, or $20 million, this year, due to record-breaking low temperatures causing the deaths of many fish. • Florida’s tropical fish industry dominated the market in the late 1980’s, with Asian imports at approximately 30% of the market share. Today, these imports are at 65% of the market share. In 2007, tropical fish sales were at $32.2 million, over half of Florida’s aquaculture industry. • Farmers are seeking federal aid, as insurance programs will cover only the second half of losses, capped at $100,000 per farm. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, January 19, 2010 Cost of Florida cold: Hundreds of millions • The Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services reported to lawmakers that agriculture losses due to beginningof-year freezes will easily top hundreds of millions of dollars. • Lee, Collier, Charlotte, and Hendry counties have already seen approximately $100 million in agriculture losses. • One of Florida’s largest agriculture industries, the $9 billion citrus industry, will not have final figures on damages for months. • Florida supplies the U.S. with 70% of the country’s domestic winter produce. Source: Pensacola News Journal, January 20, 2010 Florida property taxes ‘drop like a rock’ over last three years • Over the past three years, Florida’s property taxes have seen a 7.5%, or $2.28 billion drop, due to tax cuts approved by the Florida Legislature and voted in by residents, as well as declining real estate values. • These tax cuts were instituted as taxpayers were angry over tax collection doubling over 2000-2006. • Taxable property values for school taxes have not declined as much, falling less than 1% between 2006 and 2009. This indicates that the tax law and amendments are largely responsible for the decline in collections, with the decline in real estate values a secondary cause. • Tax collections have not continued to fall due to the “recapture rule”—an amendment adopted in the 1990s that limits annual assessment increases to 3% or less when real estate values are on the rise. When values decrease, however, the rule increases assessments by up to 3%. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, February 4, 2010

Blue Cross of Florida asks for up to 14% rate increase • Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Florida is seeking to increase rates for individuals and small businesses, a rate increase that could top 14% for some. • In the month of February, the company filed three rate increase requests with the Office of Insurance Regulation. • For individuals who pay preferred-provider organization policies, the rates would increase by 11.2%. For small-group plans, the increase would be at least 14%. • Blue Cross officials stated that the rates were increasing due to rising medical costs and the unpaid medical bills left by uninsured patients that force health providers to recoup losses through private health plans. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, February 25, 2010 ACA Home Insurance seeks 20 percent rate hike • A hearing was scheduled by the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation to address the rate increase requested by ACA Home Insurance Corp. • ACA is asking for an increase of 20.5%, which would take effect on April 8 if approved. • The 20.5% increase is a statewide average for homeowner policyholders—some areas will see higher or lower increases. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, March 1, 2010 Florida Legislature passes unemployment tax rollback, extends benefits to jobless • A bill in the Florida Legislature was passed unanimously that will roll back an unemployment compensation tax increase. • The tax increase would have put additional strain on Florida’s businesses and economy. The bill also extended unemployment benefits for eight more weeks for the 15,000 unemployed workers in the state. • The tax increase was originally designed to automatically replenish the unemployment trust fund when it reached a certain level, which had been surpassed when the fund was completely drained last year. • A smaller tax increase will still occur this year, with the minimum rising from $8.40 to $25.50 per employee. This is a much more modest increase, as the original hike would have brought the rate up to $100.30 per employee. The maximum unemployment tax rate will remain the same as last year’s $378, as opposed to the original hike of up to $459. Source: Naples News, March 2, 2010 State’s jobs bill gives tax breaks to film, space industries • The Florida Legislature will be addressing a bill in the Senate Ways and Means Committee that will include tax credits for the film industry and space businesses, among others. • Over time, the tax credits are expected to amount to over $160 million. • Other tax breaks will be included in the bill, including those for companies that hire previously unemployed workers and companies that make capital investments of at least $25 million. • These tax credits will not take effect for at least a year to prevent rising costs for next year. Source: Orlando Sentinel, March 15, 2010

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Met r o s

March 2 010

F l o r i d a F OR E C A S T

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

P r o fi l e s The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is comprised only of Volusia County. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway, which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500. Quick Facts:

• Population estimate of 498,036 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• A civilian labor force of 255,020 in April 2009 (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• An unemployment rate of 10.3% as of April 2009, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 26,256 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• Volusia County Schools – 8,351 employees • Halifax Health – 4,327 employees

• Volusia County Government – 3,728 employees

• Florida Hospital – All divisions – 3,547 employees

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is expected to show modest growth in most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast. Personal income is expected to average 5.0 percent growth, while the per capita income level will be at 27.7. Average annual wage will be the lowest level in the state at 37.8. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.7 percent. Population growth will be the lowest in the state at -0.1 percent. Gross Metro Product will also be one of the lowest in the state at 10,317.18 (Mill).

The employment growth rate is expected to average 0.8 percent each year. Unemployment will be one of the worst in the state, averaging 10.9 percent annually. The Deltona MSA will experience the most growth in the Manufacturing sector, with an average growth rate of 2.4 percent annually. The Information sector will see the second-most growth in the MSA, at 2.0 percent annual growth. The Trade, Transportation, and Utility sector follows with an annual growth rate of 1.3 percent. The Professional & Business Services sector is the only sector that will experience a decline, with an annual growth rate of -0.4 percent.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Profit at International Speedway falls 95%

• Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – 2,908 employees

• For the fiscal year ending November 30, profit for NASCAR’s International Speedway in Daytona was down nearly 95%. Revenues fell by 12% in the same period.

• Daytona State College – 1,933 employees

• In a prepared statement, the company claimed the persistence of “adverse economic trends” resulted in reduced attendance and revenue.

• State Government – 3,038 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 2,758 employees

• Federal Government – 1,437 employees

• Embry Riddle Aeronautical University – 1,225 employees Source: Volusia County Department of Economic Development

• International Speedway representative Lesa France Kennedy appears hopeful that a recovering economy will reverse the downward fall of profit, stating that International Speedway is “optimistic that the economic recovery underway will continue to strengthen and we

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

will begin to see positive changes in consumer and corporate spending.” Source: Orlando Business Journal, January 29, 2010 Daytona designates ‘brownfield’ area for economic boost • Daytona city commissioners voted in favor of establishing a “brownfield” area—a portion of the city where businesses can receive state aid in overcoming economic and environmental obstacles. • This tool for economic redevelopment awards businesses $2,000 in state and $500 in municipal grants for job creation. • The new brownfields encompass major Daytona firms such as the International Speedway, but also include other local businesses. • The Central Business Corridors Economic Enhancement Area is a type of brownfield, offering businesses economic and environmental assistance. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, February 4, 2010 Edgewater developer seeking extension • Granted a three year extension in 2007, Edgewater Harbor, LLC is seeking an additional 6 months on its development contract with the City of Daytona. • The city sold the company a 60-acre property for $3 million in 2003, expecting the Edgewater Harbor commercial luxury condominium project to generate large tax revenues for the city. • Edgewater Harbor representative Hawk McMillan argued that economic factors such as the housing slump and credit crisis have slowed development on the project, thereby necessitating the extension. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, Feb. 22, 2010 30

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

Sun, sales lift spirits on Beach Street • Despite a cold and rainy start to Bike Week 2010, both vendors and visitors regained confidence that the event’s anticipated return to Beach Street would surpass last year’s showing in both sales and attendance. • In the midst of a mending, but still stunted economy, many Daytona residents feared Bike Week 2010 would be unsuccessful. • Daytona Harley dealer Kelly Rang claimed motorcycle riders would be undaunted, stating that “people ride Harleys to forget their everyday problems, foul weather and economy included.” Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, March 1, 2010 B-CU to host discussion of faith, economics • The arts and humanities department at Bethune Cookman University is hosting a talk on the current economic environment entitled “The Call of Faith in Challenging Economic Times.” • The discussion is part of 13th annual Richard V. Moore Sr. Lecture Series, and is open to the public. • The Thurgood Marshall Debate Society at the university will be considering “Economic Redevelopment from a Global Perspective” in one of the day’s several discussions. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, March 16, 2010

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

1.4

1.6

11000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

10000.0 9500.0 9000.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0

1.2

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product

8500.0 8000.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Deltona Payroll Employment

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income

Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment 180.0

10500.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.8

15.0% 12.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% -3.0% -6.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL* March 2010 Forecast

2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

15.4 0 5.7 9.7 12.5 -1.2 31 25.2 35.8 1.5

15.8 4.5 5.7 10.1 12.8 2.4 32 26 36.1 4.3

16 4.9 5.8 10.2 13 3.1 32.5 26.4 36.4 3.8

16.2 6.1 5.8 10.4 13.1 4.6 33 26.7 36.7 3.8

16.4 6.2 5.8 10.5 13.2 5 33.4 26.9 36.9 3.3

16.5 4.6 5.9 10.7 13.3 3.4 33.8 27.1 37.1 2.8

16.7 4.4 5.9 10.8 13.3 2.8 34.1 27.2 37.3 2.4

16.9 4.1 6 10.9 13.4 2.4 34.4 27.4 37.5 2

17.1 4.2 6 11 13.5 2.6 34.8 27.6 37.6 1.9

17.3 4.5 6.1 11.2 13.6 2.8 35.2 27.8 37.8 1.9

17.5 5.1 6.1 11.4 13.8 3.5 35.6 28 38 1.9

17.8 5.4 6.2 11.5 13.9 3.8 36 28.3 38.2 2

18 5.4 6.3 11.7 14 3.9 36.4 28.4 38.4 2.1

18.2 5.4 6.4 11.8 14.2 3.9 36.8 28.6 38.7 2.3

18.4 5.2 6.5 12 14.3 3.6 37.2 28.8 39 2.5

157.1 -0.5 8.3 2.1 148.9 -0.6 9 -5.1 30.1 0.1 5.1 22.6 2.2 2.4 0.6 6.8 -1.3 14.8 -2.9 32 0.7 22.9 0.4 8.1 1.3 1.4 -3.8 21.4 -1.3

157.5 0 8.4 3.6 149.1 -0.2 9.1 -2 30.2 0.5 5.2 22.6 2.3 2.5 5.4 6.8 -0.9 14.6 -2.6 32.2 1 22.9 0.6 8.1 1.5 1.4 -14 21.3 -1.1

158.2 0.6 8.5 4.9 149.7 0.4 9.2 1.6 30.4 1.1 5.3 22.7 2.3 2.5 4.4 6.9 -0.1 14.6 -1.8 32.5 1.6 22.9 -0.2 8.1 1.1 1.4 -7.8 21.3 -0.7

159 1.3 8.6 5.5 150.3 1 9.3 3.5 30.7 1.9 5.4 22.9 2.3 2.5 3.2 6.9 1.4 14.6 -1 32.6 2 22.8 -0.3 8.1 1.3 1.4 -3 21.4 -0.2

159.6 1.6 8.8 6 150.9 1.3 9.5 4.8 30.9 2.7 5.4 23 2.4 2.5 3.4 7 2 14.5 -1.6 32.7 2.2 22.8 -0.2 8.1 0.9 1.4 -1.5 21.4 0.2

160.7 2 8.8 5.5 151.9 1.8 9.6 6 31.2 3.4 5.5 23.2 2.4 2.5 2.9 7 2.5 14.6 -0.3 32.9 2.1 23 0.2 8.1 0.7 1.4 -0.8 21.5 1

161.9 2.3 8.9 5.2 152.9 2.2 9.8 6.7 31.4 3.4 5.5 23.3 2.4 2.5 3.4 7.1 2.7 14.7 0.8 33 1.7 23.1 1.2 8.1 0.7 1.4 -0.4 21.7 1.6

163.1 2.6 9 4.7 154.1 2.5 10 7.1 31.7 3.2 5.6 23.5 2.5 2.6 3.8 7.1 2.7 14.9 2.2 33.1 1.5 23.3 2.2 8.2 0.7 1.4 -0.1 21.8 2.1

164.2 2.9 9.1 4.3 155.1 2.8 10.2 8 31.8 3 5.7 23.6 2.5 2.6 3 7.1 2.3 15.2 4.2 33.2 1.5 23.4 2.5 8.2 0.8 1.4 0.1 22 2.6

165.4 3 9.2 4.1 156.2 2.9 10.5 8.6 32.1 2.9 5.7 23.7 2.5 2.6 3 7.1 1.9 15.4 5.4 33.3 1.4 23.5 2.4 8.2 0.9 1.4 0.1 22.1 2.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

158.5 -2.9 8.1 -8.6 150.4 -2.6 9.8 -10.8 30.1 -2.9 5.1 22.8 2.3 2.4 -4 7 -5 15.3 -9 31.7 0.2 22.9 2.8 7.9 0 1.4 0.1 21.8 -2.6

157.9 -3 8.1 -7.4 149.8 -2.7 9.5 -13.4 30.1 -2.5 5.1 22.7 2.2 2.4 -3.1 6.9 -5 15.2 -6.2 31.8 -0.3 22.8 0.5 8 -0.1 1.5 5.5 21.7 -2.8

157.5 -2.6 8.1 -4.2 149.4 -2.5 9.3 -13.4 30 -3 5.1 22.7 2.2 2.3 -2.6 6.9 -3.4 15 -5.4 31.9 0.3 22.8 -0.4 8 1.6 1.6 17.3 21.6 -3.3

157.2 -2 8.1 -2.8 149.1 -2 9 -13.6 30.1 -1.9 5.1 22.7 2.2 2.4 -1.6 6.9 -1.9 14.9 -3.4 32 -0.5 22.9 0.7 8 2.5 1.5 11.7 21.5 -3

157 -0.9 8.2 0.5 148.8 -1 9 -8.4 30.1 -0.2 5.1 22.7 2.2 2.4 -0.7 6.8 -2.3 14.8 -3.5 32 1 22.9 -0.2 8 1 1.5 3.9 21.4 -1.6

9814.3 497.2 -0.4 253 -0.6 12.5 906 860 46

9899.1 493.4 -1 252.6 -1.4 12.8 830 700 130

9898.7 491.5 -1.3 252.7 -1.4 13 949 833 116

9922.2 490.5 -1.4 253.2 0.1 13 1257 1134 123

9945.8 490.4 -1.4 253.7 0.3 12.7 1766 1590 175

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

9988.9 10033.2 10112.7 10204.5 10290.4 10394.6 10501.4 10611.7 10689.9 10778.4 489.9 489.7 489.7 490.4 491.2 492 493 494 495 496.1 -0.7 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 254.3 254.6 255.3 256.1 257.2 258 258.9 260 261.1 262.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7 12.4 12 11.6 11.2 10.8 10.3 9.9 9.5 9.1 8.8 2271 2763 3220 3595 3783 4028 4263 4395 4457 4560 2061 2524 2940 3257 3421 3645 3815 3874 3888 3948 209 240 281 338 362 384 448 522 569 612

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B each – O r m o n d B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL March 2010 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths.) Pct Chg Year Ago

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

11.7 4.6 4.3 7.3 11.3 3.2 25.4 24.6 28.1 4.3

12.2 4.7 4.7 7.5 11.6 2.6 26.1 24.8 29.3 4.5

13.4 9.4 5.1 8.3 12.4 6.6 27.9 25.8 30.5 4.2

14.2 5.9 5.5 8.7 12.7 2.8 29 26 31.6 3.4

15.2 7.3 5.9 9.3 13.3 4.4 30.6 26.7 33.6 6.3

15.5 1.9 6 9.4 13.2 -0.8 30.9 26.3 34.7 3.3

15.5 0.3 5.9 9.6 12.8 -2.9 31 25.6 35.1 1.3

15.3 -1.7 5.7 9.6 12.5 -1.9 30.7 25.2 35.2 0.2

16.1 5.4 5.8 10.3 13 3.8 32.7 26.5 36.5 3.8

16.8 4.3 5.9 10.8 13.4 2.8 34.3 27.3 37.4 2.3

17.6 5.1 6.2 11.5 13.9 3.5 35.8 28.1 38.1 2

18.6 5.3 6.5 12 14.4 3.7 37.4 28.9 39.1 2.6

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

153.8 1.9 9.6 -7.3 144.2 2.6 10.6 8.3 30.9 -0.6 4.7 23.6 2.7 2.5 -12.2 6.4 -2.3 16.4 3.8 28.2 7.7 19.6 0.8 7.6 6.8 1.4 2.5 20.6 0.9

158.6 3.1 9.4 -1.5 149.1 3.4 11.5 7.9 31.5 1.6 4.6 24.3 2.6 2.3 -7.6 6.5 1.2 17.4 6.3 30.1 6.7 20 2.2 7.8 2.9 1.4 2.4 20.7 0.5

165.4 4.3 9.8 3.9 155.6 4.3 12.9 12.8 32 1.7 4.7 25 2.3 2.3 -2.5 6.9 7.2 19.1 9.8 30.7 1.9 21.1 5.3 8.2 4 1.4 0 21.1 2.1

171.8 3.9 10.2 4.3 161.6 3.9 14.8 14.5 33.2 3.7 4.8 26 2.4 2.2 -3.2 7.3 5.5 20.6 7.7 30.5 -0.7 21.7 2.9 8.2 0.1 1.4 1.2 21.8 3.5

174.9 1.8 10.6 3.9 164.3 1.6 15.9 7.3 33.2 0.1 5 25.9 2.4 2.4 8.3 7.9 7.2 20.4 -0.9 30.5 0.2 21.6 -0.4 8.3 1.2 1.4 -0.6 22.8 4.4

173.5 -0.8 10.3 -2.6 163.1 -0.7 14.2 -10.4 33.6 1.1 5.3 25.8 2.5 2.5 5.2 8 2.2 19 -6.7 30.6 0.2 22.6 4.6 8.1 -1.7 1.4 -0.6 23.1 1.4

166.9 -3.8 9.3 -10.4 157.7 -3.4 11.5 -19.1 32.2 -4.1 5.3 24.5 2.4 2.6 4 7.7 -3.9 17.4 -8.4 31.8 4 22.6 0 8 -1.8 1.4 0 22.5 -2.9

160.9 -3.6 8.4 -9.2 152.4 -3.3 10.5 -8.8 30.6 -4.8 5.2 23.1 2.3 2.4 -7 7.1 -7.9 15.7 -9.8 31.9 0.3 22.8 1 7.9 -1.3 1.4 -0.6 22.1 -1.6

157.4 -2.2 8.1 -3.6 149.3 -2.1 9.2 -12.3 30.1 -1.9 5.1 22.7 2.2 2.4 -2 6.9 -3.2 15 -4.6 31.9 0.1 22.8 0.1 8 1.3 1.5 9.6 21.5 -2.7

158 0.4 8.4 4 149.5 0.2 9.2 -0.6 30.3 0.9 5.3 22.7 2.3 2.5 3.4 6.9 -0.2 14.6 -2.1 32.3 1.3 22.9 0.1 8.1 1.3 1.4 -7.4 21.4 -0.8

161.3 2.1 8.9 5.3 152.4 2 9.7 6.2 31.3 3.2 5.5 23.2 2.4 2.5 3.4 7 2.5 14.7 0.2 32.9 1.9 23.1 0.8 8.1 0.7 1.4 -0.7 21.6 1.2

165.9 2.8 9.2 3.7 156.7 2.8 10.6 8.7 32.2 2.8 5.7 23.8 2.5 2.6 3.1 7.2 1.8 15.4 4.9 33.4 1.3 23.5 2.1 8.2 0.9 1.4 0.1 22.2 2.7

9058.2 460 1.7 220.9 2.9 5.5 4785 4136 649

9078.1 468.6 1.9 226.8 2.7 5.2 6171 4990 1181

9431.2 479.3 2.3 232.7 2.6 4.5 6179 4779 1401

10041 489 2 240.9 3.5 3.7 6363 5121 1242

10492 497.3 1.7 246.6 2.3 3.3 4126 3100 1026

10462 501.3 0.8 250.8 1.7 4.1 2194 1583 611

10245 500.2 -0.2 253.6 1.1 6.6 1366 1018 348

9917.4 497.8 -0.5 254.6 0.4 11.2 778 714 63

9916.5 491.4 -1.3 253.1 -0.6 12.9 1200 1064 136

10085 489.9 -0.3 255.1 0.8 11.8 2962 2695 267

10450 492.6 0.5 258.5 1.3 10.1 4118 3689 429

10818 496.7 0.8 263.1 1.8 8.7 4595 3979 617

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Gai n e s v i l l e

P r o fi l e s The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist counties and is located in the northcentral portion of the state. This metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history museum. Quick Facts:

• Metro population estimate of 258,555 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Alachua County population estimate of 241,364 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Gilchrist County population estimate of 17,191 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• A civilian labor force of 140,426 in April 2009 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• An unemployment rate of 5.7% as of April 2009, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 8,058 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• University of Florida – 35,000 employees • Shands Hospital – 12,588 employees

• Veterans Affairs Medical Center – 4,317 employees • Alachua County School Board – 4,299 employees • City of Gainesville – 2,200 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 2,056 employees

• North Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,700 employees • Nationwide Insurance Company – 1,300 employees

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

• Alachua County Government – 1,120 employees

• Santa Fe Community College - 796 employees Source: University of Florida and Gainesville Council for Economic Outreach

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Gainesville MSA is expected to show modest growth in all of the economic indicators measured in this forecast, relative to the state. Personal income growth will be the second lowest in the state, averaging 4.3 percent, while per capita income level is expected to average 28.2. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.8 percent, while the average annual wage level will be 40.8. Population growth will average a growth rate of 0.6 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be the second lowest in the state at a level of 7,986.33 (Mill). This metro will see an employment growth rate of 0.5 percent annually, one of the lowest in the state. The Gainesville MSA will maintain the lowest rate of unemployment in the state, at 6.9 percent.

The fastest growing sector in the area will be the Manufacturing sector, with an average growth rate of 2.8 percent annually. This is followed by the Information sector, with an average annual growth rate of 1.1 percent, and the Education and Health Services sector with 1.0 percent growth. The State & Local Government sector and the Federal Government sector are the only sectors that will experience declines, with annual growth rates of -0.1 percent and -0.9 percent respectively.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s In struggling economy, Gainesville airport’s goal is to hold steady • The Gainesville Regional Airport is running a $12,000 ad campaign to lure more carriers and flights and keep the existing carriers interested, while trying to increase its local visibility.

Gai n e s v i l l e

• Tenant bankruptcy and the economy have hurt the airport’s service sales and have resulted in $505,000 of annual loan debt. The airport has no ‘wiggle-room’ to raise fees on airlines and aviation businesses to compensate. • Gainesville Regional will try to lure more air service and hopes that low-cost carriers can be successful. However, the realistic goal is to retain their current business. Source: The Gainesville Sun, January 5, 2010 Vision of the future

• Rising admissions standards while lowering enrollment numbers has frustrated many students who were expecting to gain admission to UF. Source: The Gainesville Sun, February 12, 2010 Stimulus money may bring 650 local jobs • Up to 650 jobs may be created for those who qualify for cash assistance under Florida’s Back to Work program. Qualifications include at least one dependent child and family income below 200% of the federal poverty level.

• On January 28th, the Gainesville Area Chamber of Commerce unveiled the Innovation Gainesville economic development plan, which emphasizes growing health and green technology companies, university research, and college graduate retention.

• The goal of the program is to subsidize job positions with local businesses, in hopes that employers will start hiring after the subsidy period ends. Furthermore, the employees are expected to help the regional economy with local spending of their earnings.

• The report was created in collaboration with more than 200 individuals, including leaders in business, government, schools, the University of Florida, and Santa Fe College.

• 36 private businesses, 14 local governments and 12 nonprofits have applied. The positions range from clerks and cashiers, to positions in healthcare, Information Technology, and management.

• The plan will include any innovative company, but will focus on health and green companies and exclude “non-green” companies. The incentives will include annual prizes and free housing. Source: The Gainesville Sun, January 29, 2010 UF enrollment cuts end as economy takes toll • The University of Florida has halted enrollment cuts for the fall and summer terms, admitting 10,985 for 6,400 seats available, in an attempt to bring in more funding during a time of state budget cuts. • UF’s enrollment cuts in previous years have hurt the local real estate market, as well as undermined alumni support and lowered political clout in the state.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, February 17, 2010 Weekend’s home show sells out the O’Dome • The North Central Florida Home Show had all of its 200 booths booked by local area builders and sub-contractors, bringing hope that the economy might be recovering. • The Builders Association is reporting strong membership numbers, citing community solidarity and a lack of competition from national developers. • Independent contractor Ark Remodeling and Construction has reported 60 project estimates over the exhibition weekend, with an overall 20% return on estimates. Also, housing permits are up more than 50% in Alachua County, relative to 2009. Source: The Gainesville Sun, March 12, 2010 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Gai n e s v i l l e Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.5

Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

(percent)

8500.0

(Millions 2000 $)

8000.0

7000.0 6500.0 6000.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

130.0 125.0 120.0

2.5

7500.0

135.0

115.0

Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product

5500.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Gainesville Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Gainesville Real Personal Income

Gainesville Payroll Employment 140.0

1.5

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income

Gai n e s v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL* March 2010 Forecast

2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 Personal Income (Billions $)

8.6 -0.4 5.1 3.5 7 -1.6 32.7 26.7 38.5 1.5

8.8 4.2 5.1 3.7 7.1 2.1 33.6 27.2 38.9 4.4

8.9 4.6 5.1 3.8 7.2 2.8 33.9 27.5 39.3 3.9

9 5.4 5.1 3.8 7.2 3.9 34.2 27.6 39.6 3.9

9 5 5.2 3.9 7.3 3.8 34.4 27.7 39.8 3.3

9.1 3.7 5.2 3.9 7.3 2.5 34.7 27.8 40.1 2.9

9.2 3.3 5.2 4 7.3 1.8 34.9 27.9 40.2 2.5

9.2 3.2 5.2 4 7.4 1.6 35.1 27.9 40.4 2.1

9.3 3.5 5.3 4 7.4 1.8 35.4 28 40.6 2

9.4 3.7 5.3 4.1 7.5 2 35.7 28.2 40.9 2

9.6 4.2 5.4 4.2 7.5 2.6 36 28.4 41.1 2

9.7 4.5 5.4 4.2 7.6 3 36.4 28.5 41.3 2.1

9.8 4.7 5.5 4.3 7.6 3.1 36.7 28.6 41.5 2.2

9.9 4.7 5.6 4.3 7.7 3.2 37.1 28.8 41.9 2.4

10 4.7 5.7 4.4 7.8 3.1 37.4 29 42.1 2.6

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

130.8 -2.2 4.5 -10.1 126.3 -1.9 5.1 -7.8 18.5 -5.1 2.8 13.2 2.5 1.7 -3.6 6 -3.2 10.3 -6.8 22.6 0.5 15.6 3 4.7 0 3.9 -2.4 37.9 -1.3

130.1 -1.8 4.5 -7.2 125.6 -1.6 4.9 -8.2 18.4 -3.5 2.8 13.2 2.4 1.7 -5.3 5.9 -4 10.2 -3.5 22.7 0.3 15.5 0.6 4.7 0.1 3.9 -2 37.6 -0.9

130 -1.4 4.5 -3.3 125.5 -1.3 4.8 -9.1 18.4 -2.9 2.8 13.2 2.4 1.7 -7.6 5.9 -3.9 10.1 -2 22.8 1.3 15.5 -0.6 4.7 1 4.3 10.1 37.4 -1.8

129.4 -1.1 4.5 -0.8 124.9 -1.1 4.7 -10.7 18.4 -1.2 2.8 13.2 2.4 1.7 -1.7 5.9 -2.4 10 -1.6 22.8 1 15.5 -1 4.7 1.2 4.1 4.4 37.2 -1.6

128.9 -1.4 4.5 0.7 124.4 -1.5 4.6 -9.2 18.4 -0.9 2.8 13.2 2.4 1.7 -1.7 5.8 -2.4 9.9 -3.5 22.8 0.7 15.5 -0.8 4.7 0.6 3.9 1.3 37 -2.3

128.8 -1 4.6 2.3 124.3 -1.1 4.6 -6 18.3 -0.5 2.8 13.1 2.4 1.7 0.5 5.8 -1.5 9.9 -3 22.8 0.4 15.5 -0.2 4.8 0.9 3.9 0.5 36.9 -2

128.9 -0.8 4.6 3.8 124.3 -1 4.6 -2.8 18.4 0.1 2.8 13 2.4 1.7 4.7 5.8 -1 9.8 -2.7 22.9 0.7 15.5 0.4 4.8 1.2 3.9 -10.9 36.8 -1.7

129.3 -0.1 4.7 5.2 124.6 -0.3 4.7 0.8 18.5 0.7 2.9 13.1 2.5 1.8 4.8 5.9 -0.1 9.8 -1.8 23.1 1.2 15.5 -0.3 4.8 0.8 3.9 -5.9 36.7 -1.2

129.6 0.6 4.8 5.8 124.9 0.4 4.7 2.6 18.7 1.6 2.9 13.2 2.5 1.8 3.6 5.9 1.3 9.8 -1 23.2 1.6 15.4 -0.4 4.8 1.2 3.8 -2.7 36.7 -0.7

129.9 0.9 4.9 6.2 125.1 0.7 4.8 4 18.8 2.4 2.9 13.2 2.6 1.8 3.3 5.9 1.9 9.8 -1.7 23.2 1.8 15.4 -0.3 4.8 0.7 3.8 -2.2 36.8 -0.3

130.6 1.3 4.9 5.7 125.7 1.2 4.9 5.2 18.9 3 3 13.3 2.6 1.8 2.5 6 2.3 9.8 -0.4 23.3 1.7 15.5 -0.1 4.8 0.5 3.8 -1.5 36.9 0.4

131.4 1.6 5 5.4 126.4 1.5 5 5.8 19 3 3 13.4 2.6 1.8 2.4 6 2.5 9.9 0.7 23.4 1.2 15.6 1 4.8 0.4 3.8 -1.1 37.1 0.9

132.1 1.9 5 4.9 127.1 1.8 5 6 19.2 2.7 3 13.4 2.7 1.8 2.6 6.1 2.5 10 2 23.4 1.1 15.7 2 4.8 0.3 3.8 -0.8 37.3 1.4

132.8 2.2 5.1 4.5 127.7 2.1 5.1 6.8 19.3 2.5 3 13.5 2.7 1.8 2.3 6.1 2.1 10.2 4.1 23.4 1 15.8 2.5 4.8 0.5 3.8 -0.6 37.4 1.8

133.6 2.3 5.1 4.3 128.5 2.2 5.2 7.2 19.4 2.4 3.1 13.6 2.7 1.8 2.2 6.1 1.7 10.3 5.2 23.5 0.9 15.9 2.5 4.8 0.5 3.8 -0.7 37.7 2

7710 262.7 0.7 139 -1.2 8.2 420 338 82

7739.2 261.9 0.3 137.8 -1.4 8.4 505 300 204

7734.8 261.8 0.1 137.1 -1.6 8.4 532 354 178

7746.8 262 0 136.6 -1.2 8.4 620 444 176

7756.4 262.4 -0.1 136.5 -1.8 8.2 791 571 220

7779.1 262.7 0.3 136.3 -1.1 7.9 952 698 253

7804.7 263 0.5 136.1 -0.7 7.6 1054 807 247

7856.6 263.5 0.6 136 -0.5 7.3 1132 884 247

7915.9 264 0.6 136 -0.3 7 1189 928 261

7967.3 264.6 0.7 136.2 -0.1 6.7 1208 964 243

8034.4 265.2 0.8 136.6 0.4 6.4 1253 1027 227

8102.2 265.8 0.9 137.2 0.9 6.1 1339 1074 265

8172.7 266.4 0.9 137.7 1.2 5.9 1399 1088 311

8217.2 267 0.9 138.3 1.5 5.6 1435 1093 342

8270 267.7 0.9 138.8 1.6 5.5 1473 1109 365

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Gai n e s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL March 2010 Forecast

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

6 2.5 3.6 2.3 5.8 1.1 24.9 24.2 28.8 3.7

6.2 3.6 3.8 2.4 5.9 1.5 25.5 24.2 29.4 2.2

7 13.2 4.3 2.7 6.5 10.3 28.6 26.4 32.9 11.9

7.6 8.1 4.6 3 6.8 4.9 30.3 27.2 34.6 5.3

8.2 8 4.9 3.3 7.1 5.1 32.1 28.1 36.4 5

8.5 4.2 5.1 3.4 7.2 1.5 33 28.1 37.5 3.1

8.7 1.7 5.1 3.5 7.1 -1.6 33.3 27.4 38 1.3

8.5 -1.8 5 3.5 7 -1.9 32.5 26.7 37.9 -0.1

8.9 4.8 5.1 3.8 7.2 3.2 34 27.5 39.4 3.9

9.2 3.4 5.2 4 7.3 1.9 35 27.9 40.3 2.4

9.6 4.3 5.4 4.2 7.5 2.7 36.2 28.4 41.2 2.1

10.1 4.8 5.7 4.4 7.8 3.2 37.6 29.1 42.3 2.7

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

126 -0.1 5 -0.8 121 -0.1 5.1 5.6 17.9 -1.2 2.3 13.3 2.3 2 -6.5 6.6 -0.1 9.9 -10.4 20.4 2.4 12.1 -1.3 4.3 10.3 3.2 2.1 39.4 1

127.4 1.1 4.7 -5.3 122.6 1.3 5.2 1.5 18.1 1.1 2.5 13.2 2.5 2 -1.3 6.2 -6.4 10.4 4.3 20.8 2.3 12 -0.5 4.5 5.4 3.3 3.6 40 1.6

129.6 1.8 4.7 -1.8 125 1.9 5.8 11.7 18.2 0.4 2.6 13.2 2.4 2.1 6.1 6.2 -0.7 11.3 8.8 21.5 3 12.9 7.5 4.7 3.3 3.4 3.7 38.9 -2.8

131.2 1.2 4.6 -0.2 126.5 1.2 6.2 6.3 18.9 3.5 2.7 13.8 2.4 2 -5.8 6.2 1 11.9 5.6 21.9 2.1 13.7 5.9 4.5 -3 3.7 5.9 37.6 -3.3

133.3 1.6 5.2 12.2 128.1 1.3 6.5 5.3 19.5 3.3 2.7 14.1 2.6 2 -2.9 6.5 4 12.1 1.3 21.9 0.1 13.4 -2 4.7 2.6 3.7 2.1 37.9 0.9

135.2 1.4 5.3 2.2 129.8 1.4 6.5 0.9 20.2 3.9 2.8 14.9 2.6 2 2.5 6.4 -0.5 11.6 -4.1 21.8 -0.6 14 4.1 4.8 3.7 3.8 3.1 38.6 1.8

134.6 -0.5 5.1 -4.8 129.5 -0.3 5.7 -12.4 19.7 -2.7 2.9 14.2 2.7 1.9 -6.6 6.3 -2.8 11.2 -3.4 22.4 2.8 14.9 6.5 4.8 -0.8 4 4.1 38.7 0.2

131.5 -2.3 4.6 -9.2 126.9 -2 5.2 -8.7 18.8 -4.7 2.8 13.5 2.5 1.8 -6.2 6.1 -2.8 10.3 -7.5 22.6 0.8 15.6 4.5 4.7 -1.9 3.9 -1.7 37.9 -1.9

129.6 -1.4 4.5 -2.7 125.1 -1.4 4.7 -9.3 18.4 -2.1 2.8 13.2 2.4 1.7 -4.1 5.9 -3.2 10.1 -2.7 22.8 0.8 15.5 -0.4 4.7 0.7 4.1 3.5 37.3 -1.7

129.2 -0.3 4.7 4.3 124.5 -0.5 4.7 -1.4 18.5 0.5 2.8 13.1 2.5 1.7 3.4 5.9 -0.3 9.8 -2.1 23 1 15.5 -0.1 4.8 1 3.9 -4.9 36.8 -1.4

131 1.4 4.9 5.6 126.1 1.3 4.9 5.2 19 2.8 3 13.3 2.6 1.8 2.7 6 2.3 9.9 0.1 23.3 1.4 15.6 0.6 4.8 0.5 3.8 -1.4 37 0.6

133.9 2.2 5.1 3.9 128.7 2.1 5.3 7.2 19.4 2.3 3.1 13.6 2.7 1.8 2.2 6.1 1.6 10.3 4.7 23.5 0.8 15.9 2.2 4.8 0.6 3.8 -0.7 37.7 2

6273.8 239.4 1.3 125 0.4 4 1942 1130 812

6434.4 242.1 1.1 126 0.8 3.7 1706 1261 446

6993.4 245.2 1.3 126.5 0.4 3.4 1838 1378 461

7303 249.4 1.7 128.9 1.8 2.9 2224 1454 770

7577.6 254.2 1.9 131.6 2.1 2.7 1885 1156 729

7726.8 257.7 1.4 135.7 3.1 3 1368 763 605

7746.2 260.1 0.9 139.5 2.8 4.3 1033 491 542

7607.8 261.9 0.7 139.1 -0.3 7 454 326 128

7744.3 262 0.1 137 -1.5 8.3 612 417 194

7839.1 263.3 0.5 136.1 -0.7 7.5 1082 830 252

8069.1 265.5 0.8 136.9 0.6 6.3 1300 1038 262

8292.8 268 0.9 139.1 1.6 5.4 1481 1116 364

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

J ac k s o n v i l l e

P r o fi l e s The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport. Quick Facts:

• Metro population estimate of 1,313,228 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Baker County population estimate of 26,164 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Clay County population estimate of 184,727 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Duval County population estimate of 850,962 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Nassau County population estimate of 69,835 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • St. Johns County population estimate of 181,540 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• A civilian labor force of 681,078 in April 2009 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• An unemployment rate of 9.2% as of April 2009, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 62,772 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• Naval Air Station Jacksonville – 25,245 employees • Duval County Public Schools – 14,489 employees

• Naval Station Mayport – 10,000 employees

• City of Jacksonville Municipal Government – 8,828 employees • Baptist Health – 8,100 employees

• Blue Cross & Blue Shield of Florida – 7,000 employees

• Mayo Clinic – 5,000 employees • Citibank – 4,600 employees

• CSX – 4,400 employees

• Bank of America – 4,000 employees Source: The Cornerstone Regional Development Partnership

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Jacksonville MSA is expected to see strong growth in most of the economic indicators, relative to the state. Personal income will see an average growth rate of 5.6 percent, while the per capita income level will be one of the highest in the state at 34.4. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.0 percent, the highest in the state. Average annual wage is also expected to be among the highest in the state, at a level of 48.9. Population growth will be moderate at an average annual rate of 0.9 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 50,626.80 (Mill).

Employment growth is expected to be 2.0 percent annually, tied for second highest in the state. Unemployment will average 10.3 percent in the MSA.

The fastest growing sector in the Jacksonville MSA will be Professional & Business Services, which will see an average annual growth rate of 6.7 percent. Following that sector is Manufacturing, with an annual growth rate of 2.3 percent, and then Education and Health Services with a 1.9 percent growth rate. The Federal Government sector is the only sector that will experience a decline, with an annual growth rate of -0.6 percent.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Vacancy rates improving for office space in Jacksonville area • The Jacksonville office vacancy rate fell from the first quarter of 2009, but at 22.4% in the fourth quarter of 2009, it remained the third highest in the state . Institute for Economic Competitiveness

J ac k s o n v i l l e

• Vacancies are twice as high as they were in the second quarter of 2006, when the rate was 11.2%. • Commercial real estate professionals remain optimistic about the sector’s prospects in 2010, as lower sales and leasing prices stimulate interest from out-of-town companies looking to relocate. Source: The Florida Times-Union, January 13, 2010 FSCJ awarded $2.2 million in stimulus for jobs training • Florida State College at Jacksonville received a $2.2 million award as part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act grants. • The grants help disadvantaged areas find a way out of poverty by providing job training and job creation in energy efficiency and renewable energy industries. An estimated 2,500 Floridians will receive training though these grants. • FSCJ’s grant will be used to provide education and job training for 390 people. After completing the program, 282 are expected to be placed in jobs. Source: The Florida Times-Union, January 23, 2010 Jacksonville-to-Brazil trade swells as Asian trade crawls • While trade connections with China hold great promise for the Port of Jacksonville, trade with Brazil is producing returns much faster. The shipments of goods to and from Brazil increased by 20% in just three months, between July and September of 2009. • “We expect very strong double-digit growth in trade between Jacksonville and Brazil,” said Francis Larkin, Hamburg Süd’s senior vice president. “The Brazilian economy has weathered the global crisis much better than other places and is continuing on a strong footing.” • Brazil is Jacksonville’s second largest trading partner. The importance of the partnership continues to grow with the city’s economy, 40

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

according to Jorge Arce, director of the Jacksonville office of the U.S. Commercial Service. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, February 5, 2010 Jacksonville mortgage delinquencies rise above 10% • The rate of mortgage delinquencies in Jacksonville has been rising steadily over the past three years and is now more than 10%. While that rate is still lower than other metropolitan areas in the state, the number is expected to keep growing in 2010. • According to TransUnion LLC, a company that maintains credit histories, delinquencies of 60 days or more grew from 2.2% in 2006 to 10.3% in 2009. • Although decreases in home prices stimulated higher sales volume in recent months, more and more people are walking away from homes that are now worth less than their mortgages. Source: The Florida Times-Union, March 3, 2010 LPS asks for $3 million to add 350 jobs • Lender Processing Services Inc. is asking for $3 million in city and state incentives to create 350 full-time jobs in Jacksonville. The city is being considered along with three others. • According to LPS, the 350 jobs would have an annual payroll of $15.7 million. The company will also invest $1.5 million in capital into the city it selects. • “The proposed project will increase the visibility of Jacksonville as a financial services center, further strengthening a targeted industry and continue the redevelopment of downtown Jacksonville and the Brooklyn neighborhood,” according to the application with the Jacksonville Economic Development Commission. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, March 8, 2010

J ac k s o n v i l l e

Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

55000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

45000.0 40000.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

640.0 620.0 600.0 580.0 560.0 540.0 520.0

Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product

35000.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Jacksonville Payroll Employment

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Jacksonville Real Personal Income

Jacksonville Payroll Employment 660.0

0.8

50000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.4

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

J ac k s o n v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL* March 2010 Forecast

2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 Personal Income (Billions $)

52.2 -0.4 28.2 24 42.5 -1.6 38.9 31.7 45.9 1.5

53.4 4 28.4 25 43.3 2 39.9 32.4 46.4 4.3

54.1 4.8 28.7 25.4 43.9 3 40.5 32.8 46.8 3.9

54.7 5.9 28.9 25.8 44.2 4.4 40.9 33.1 47.3 4

55.3 6 29.2 26.1 44.5 4.8 41.3 33.3 47.6 3.7

55.9 4.8 29.5 26.5 44.9 3.6 41.7 33.5 47.9 3.2

56.5 4.5 29.8 26.7 45.2 3 42.1 33.6 48.1 2.8

57.2 4.5 30.1 27.1 45.5 2.9 42.5 33.8 48.4 2.4

58 4.9 30.6 27.4 46 3.2 43 34.1 48.6 2.2

58.9 5.3 31.1 27.9 46.5 3.7 43.6 34.4 49 2.2

59.8 5.9 31.5 28.3 47.1 4.3 44.1 34.7 49.2 2.3

60.8 6.2 32 28.7 47.6 4.7 44.6 35 49.5 2.4

61.7 6.3 32.6 29.1 48.2 4.8 45.1 35.2 49.9 2.5

62.7 6.4 33.1 29.5 48.8 4.8 45.6 35.5 50.3 2.7

63.7 6.4 33.7 30 49.4 4.8 46.2 35.8 50.7 2.9

590.5 -0.3 29.2 0 561.3 -0.3 32.5 -8.3 126.8 -0.9 27 70.6 29 8.9 -2.2 56.4 -1.9 87 4.6 81.4 0.6 65.5 0.1 27.5 1.2 17.4 1.6 57.9 -1.8

593 0.6 29.5 1.6 563.5 0.6 32.5 -5.2 127 -0.2 27.1 70.4 29.3 9 -0.4 56.3 -1.4 89 6.5 81.4 0.8 65.5 0.4 27.7 1.4 17.2 0.9 57.8 -1.4

596.1 0.9 29.9 3.1 566.2 0.8 32.7 -2.1 127.8 0.7 27.4 70.3 29.7 9.1 4.1 56.4 -0.9 90 6.5 82 1.4 65.6 0.6 27.7 1.6 17.1 -10.7 57.7 -1.2

600.8 1.9 30.3 4.5 570.5 1.7 33.1 1.5 129 1.8 27.9 70.5 30.3 9.1 3.7 56.8 -0.1 91.6 7.3 83 2.1 65.5 -0.2 27.8 1.1 17 -5.1 57.7 -0.8

606.6 2.7 30.7 5.1 575.9 2.6 33.5 3.3 130.4 2.8 28.2 71.1 30.7 9.1 2.5 57.1 1.4 94.2 8.3 83.6 2.8 65.3 -0.3 27.8 1.2 16.9 -2.7 57.7 -0.4

612.3 3.3 31.1 5.5 581.2 3.1 34.1 4.7 131.7 3.7 28.5 71.6 31.1 9.2 2.4 57.5 2.1 96.3 8.3 84.2 3.5 65.6 0.1 27.9 0.8 16.9 -1.9 57.8 -0.1

618 3.7 31.4 4.9 586.6 3.6 34.7 5.9 133 4.1 28.8 72.1 31.6 9.3 1.8 57.8 2.5 98.2 9.1 84.8 3.3 66 0.6 27.9 0.7 16.8 -1.4 58.1 0.7

624.2 3.9 31.7 4.7 592.5 3.9 35.3 6.6 134.1 3.9 29 72.5 32 9.3 2.1 58.2 2.6 100.4 9.6 85.4 2.9 66.6 1.7 28 0.7 16.8 -1.1 58.4 1.4

630.7 4 32 4.2 598.7 4 35.9 7.1 135.2 3.7 29.4 73 32.3 9.4 2.5 58.5 2.4 103 9.4 85.9 2.7 67.2 2.8 28 0.7 16.8 -0.9 58.8 2

637 4 32.3 3.8 604.7 4 36.7 7.7 136.3 3.4 29.7 73.3 32.7 9.4 2.1 58.7 2.1 105.7 9.8 86.2 2.3 67.7 3.2 28.1 0.9 16.8 -0.8 59.2 2.5

643.2 4.1 32.5 3.6 610.7 4.1 37.5 8.3 137.3 3.2 29.9 73.8 33 9.5 2.2 58.8 1.7 108.2 10.2 86.6 2.1 68.2 3.3 28.2 1 16.7 -0.7 59.6 2.6

47596.4 47764.4 47900.7 48105.3 48382.2 48696.6 48984.3 49452.5 50027.5 50610.6 1340.3 1336.5 1335.7 1336.5 1338.5 1340.4 1342.2 1344.8 1348.6 1352.8 1 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 683.8 680.6 679.9 680 681 682.5 683.6 685.1 687.3 689.6 -0.5 -1.2 -1.2 -0.1 -0.4 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 1 11.6 11.8 12 12.1 11.9 11.7 11.4 11.1 10.7 10.3 4132 3546 3844 4669 6119 7432 8632 9701 10634 11136 3978 3155 3415 4174 5329 6443 7462 8303 8970 9390 154 391 429 495 790 990 1170 1398 1663 1746

51199 1357.4 1.1 691.7 1.2 9.9 11798 9964 1834

51796 1362.2 1.3 694.2 1.3 9.4 12475 10382 2093

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

592 -3.1 29.2 -6 562.8 -2.9 35.4 -10.8 128 -3.4 27.1 70.8 30.2 9.1 -6.5 57.5 -4 83.1 -4.5 80.9 0.6 65.5 -1.4 27.2 -0.8 17.1 0 59 -1

589.4 -2.5 29 -4.9 560.4 -2.4 34.3 -9.7 127.3 -3.4 27 70.6 29.3 9.1 -3.8 57.1 -4.2 83.6 -2.8 80.8 1.1 65.2 -1.8 27.3 2.4 17.1 -0.5 58.7 -0.7

590.6 -1.5 29 -3.4 561.6 -1.4 33.4 -8.9 126.9 -3.1 27.1 70.4 29.1 8.8 -5 57 -1.7 84.5 -0.7 81 0.1 65.2 -0.7 27.3 2.5 19.1 11.5 58.4 -1.4

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

589.7 -0.8 29 -1.9 560.7 -0.8 32.6 -9.8 126.8 -2 27 70.6 28.9 8.8 -2.2 56.8 -0.8 85.4 1.7 81.2 0.7 65.6 0.5 27.5 1.6 17.9 4.4 58.1 -1.7

52426 52911.8 53423.2 1367.4 1372.9 1378.6 1.4 1.5 1.6 696.7 699.8 703 1.4 1.5 1.6 9 8.6 8.4 12885 13142 13411 10513 10585 10703 2372 2557 2707

J ac k s o n v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL March 2010 Forecast

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

36 4.6 20.8 15.2 34.8 3.2 30.6 29.6 35.3 4.7

38.3 6.5 22.4 16 36.4 4.4 31.9 30.3 37.8 7.1

41.7 8.7 23.9 17.8 38.5 5.9 33.9 31.3 39.3 3.8

45.4 8.9 25.6 19.8 40.8 5.8 36.1 32.4 40.5 3.2

50.1 10.4 27.9 22.2 43.8 7.4 39 34.1 43 6

51.9 3.6 29 23 44.2 0.9 39.8 33.9 44.1 2.8

52.6 1.3 28.9 23.7 43.3 -2 39.8 32.8 44.9 1.8

51.7 -1.7 28 23.7 42.5 -1.9 38.7 31.8 45.2 0.6

54.4 5.2 28.8 25.6 44 3.5 40.7 32.9 47 4

56.9 4.7 30 26.9 45.4 3.2 42.3 33.8 48.3 2.7

60.3 6 31.8 28.5 47.3 4.3 44.3 34.8 49.4 2.4

64.2 6.5 34 30.2 49.7 4.9 46.5 35.9 50.9 3

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

561.5 -1.1 34.4 -5 527.1 -0.8 34.1 3.6 124.4 -1.1 25.9 68.1 30.4 13.2 -8.2 57.7 -0.4 86.1 -8.3 63.5 3.9 52.5 2.6 24.9 4.4 17.7 0.1 52.8 0.4

564.5 0.5 33.3 -3.1 531.2 0.8 36.7 7.4 125 0.4 26.8 68.8 29.4 12.4 -6.1 57.6 -0.1 84.1 -2.3 64.7 1.9 53.3 1.6 25.7 3 18 1.6 53.6 1.7

582 3.1 33.3 -0.3 548.7 3.3 40.9 11.5 128.1 2.5 26.9 71.2 30.1 11.6 -6.4 58.4 1.4 85.9 2.2 67.9 5 56.3 5.5 26.4 2.6 17.8 -1.3 55.4 3.3

607.4 4.4 33.5 0.9 573.9 4.6 45.4 11 132.7 3.6 27.8 73.9 31.1 11.9 2.4 59.3 1.5 91.7 6.7 71.3 4.9 60.4 7.3 26.8 1.5 17.4 -2.2 57.1 3

626.2 3.1 33.3 -0.8 592.9 3.3 50.1 10.3 136.9 3.1 29.9 74.8 32.2 11.1 -6.8 59.8 0.9 96.8 5.5 74.5 4.5 62.1 2.9 27.6 3.1 16.9 -2.6 57 0

633.8 1.2 32.6 -2.2 601.2 1.4 49.2 -1.6 139.2 1.7 30.2 76.5 32.5 10.1 -8.5 60.1 0.5 94.3 -2.6 77.9 4.6 65.9 6.1 28.2 2.3 17 0.6 59.1 3.7

621.1 -2 31.8 -2.4 589.3 -2 42.9 -13 135.9 -2.3 28.7 75.4 31.8 9.9 -2.2 60.5 0.6 88.4 -6.2 80.4 3.2 66.7 1.2 27.7 -1.8 17.1 0.3 59.8 1.1

597.7 -3.8 29.8 -6.2 567.9 -3.6 36.6 -14.7 130.1 -4.3 27.6 71.8 30.7 9.2 -7.4 58.1 -4 84.5 -4.4 80.6 0.2 65.7 -1.5 26.9 -3.2 17.1 0.4 59.1 -1.1

590 -1.3 29.1 -2.6 561 -1.2 33.2 -9.2 127 -2.4 27 70.5 29.1 8.9 -3.3 56.8 -2.2 85.1 0.7 81.1 0.6 65.4 -0.5 27.4 1.9 17.9 4.3 58.3 -1.4

599.1 1.5 30.1 3.6 569 1.4 33 -0.7 128.6 1.3 27.6 70.6 30 9.1 2.4 56.7 -0.3 91.2 7.2 82.5 1.8 65.5 0.1 27.7 1.3 17.1 -4.6 57.7 -1

621.3 3.7 31.5 4.8 589.8 3.6 35 6.1 133.5 3.9 28.9 72.3 31.8 9.3 2.2 58 2.4 99.5 9.1 85.1 3.1 66.3 1.3 27.9 0.7 16.8 -1.3 58.3 1

645.9 4 32.6 3.3 613.3 4 37.9 8.3 137.7 3.2 30 74 33.2 9.5 2.2 58.9 1.6 109.4 9.9 86.8 2.1 68.4 3 28.2 1 16.7 -0.6 59.8 2.6

40333 1177.1 2.2 597.5 0.3 5.3 14252 11058 3194

43104 1201.3 2.1 599.4 0.3 5 15042 12825 2217

44935 1229.7 2.4 607.5 1.3 4.6 17883 13858 4024

47030 1257 2.2 628.5 3.5 3.7 23879 18655 5224

49852 1283.8 2.1 649.8 3.4 3.3 16715 12256 4459

49605 1305.1 1.7 670 3.1 3.8 10512 7476 3036

48611 1321.7 1.3 684.4 2.1 5.8 7225 5318 1908

47291 1335.8 1.1 685.3 0.1 10.2 4745 3489 1256

48038 1336.8 0.1 680.4 -0.7 12 4544 4018 526

49290 1344 0.5 684.6 0.6 11.2 9100 7794 1305

51508 1359.9 1.2 693.1 1.2 9.6 12074 10062 2011

53671 1381.7 1.6 705 1.7 8.2 13484 10783 2701

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

La k e l a n d

P r o fi l e s The Lakeland MSA is comprised only of Polk County. It is located in the western center of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus. It is home to a few attractions, including Cypress Gardens and Fantasy of Flight. Also, the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians conduct spring training in Lakeland and Winter Haven, respectively. Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 580,594 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 272,841 in April 2009 (Florida Research and Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 10.3% as of April 2009, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 27,977 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 6,644 employees • Lakeland Regional Medical Center – 4,540 employees • City of Lakeland – 2,600 employees • Geico – 1,850 employees • Watson Clinic – 1,500 employees • GC Services – 1,000 employees • Rooms To Go – 900 employees • FedEx National LTL – 850 employees • Saddle Creek Corporation – 680 employees • Summit Consulting – 654 employees Source: Lakeland Economic Development Council

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Lakeland MSA will show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 5.0 percent annually, while the per capita income level will be at 26.7, the second lowest in the state. Average annual wage growth should be 2.5 percent, tied for lowest in the state, and the average annual wage level is expected to be at 40.2, also one of the lowest in the state. Population growth is expected to be the second highest in the state, averaging an annual growth rate of 1.5 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 13,577.20 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to be 0.8 percent annually. The unemployment rate for the metro will average 11.3 percent, the second highest in the state.

The Manufacturing sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging a 2.2 percent average annual growth rate. This is followed by the Education and Health Services sector and the Information sector, both averaging a growth rate of 1.5 percent a year. The Professional & Business Services sector is the only sector that will experience a decline, with an annual growth rate of -0.2 percent.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Lake Wales Gets Restoration Deal on Grand Hotel; Begins Within Two Months • The City Commission approved a development agreement to restore the 83-year-old Dixie Walesbilt hotel, also known as the Grand Hotel, in Lake Wales. • The agreement with Dixie-Walesbilt LLC cleared the way for an initial $1.5 million in restoration work to the exterior of the building. The group must finish this first stage of restoration within 16 months or risk losing the property. • Dixie-Walesbilt plans to spend $6 million to build retail space and up to 40 condominiums, all while restoring the building to its 1927 appearance.

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

La k e l a n d

• After decades of vacancy and neglect, the city acquired the dilapidated structure in December 2007. Restoration is expected to begin within the next two months. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, February 4, 2010 Publix earnings jump • Publix Super Markets Inc., headquartered in Lakeland, reported increased sales and net earnings in 2009, compared to 2008. • The grocery chain’s sales increased 1.6%, from $23.9 billion in 2008 to $24.3 billion in 2009. The sales increase came from new supermarkets, which increased sales 4.8%, outweighing the 3.2% decrease in from comparable store sales. • Net earnings increased from $1.09 million in 2008 to $1.16 million in 2009. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, February 26, 2010 CSX Industrial Park Approved By Winter Haven Planning Commission • The Winter Haven Planning Commission approved a proposal to revise the growth map in order to accommodate the next phase of the CSX industrial park development. • The proposal involved changing 932 acres from institutional land to industrial and conservation. • Development of the industrial park in the first five years will include 500,000 square feet of warehouse space, 50,000 square feet of light industrial space, and 30,000 square feet of office space. • The next step for developer Evansville Western Railway is submitting an application to develop the site. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, March 2, 2010

Development Potential Awaits Polk Rail Stop Area • Polk County represents the least-developed stop on the planned high-speed rail system, but also the stop with the greatest development potential. Other stops on the 84-mile route—Downtown Tampa, Disney, and Orlando International Airport—are already significantly build up. • The Polk County Transportation Planning Organization recently recommended possible locations for the rail station in Polk County. The first choice is near the planned USF Polytechnic campus. • The high-speed rail system received a boost earlier this year after President Obama announced that the federal government would spend $1.25 billion on the project. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, March 5, 2010 S.R. 60 Plan Gets Its First Approval by Planning Commission • The Polk County Commission voted 4-3 to include the Gateway Selected Area Plan in the county’s growth plan, the first step toward forming a comprehensive plan for a 48,111-acre corridor between Lake Wales and Bartow on State Road 60. • The plan’s key provisions include supporting land-use mapping to foster existing businesses and job creation, working with cities to maintain or improve transportation and transit, and developing efficient land use, infrastructure, and public services. • The plan was originally proposed in 2008 to deal with expected growth pressures from the development of the CSX freight terminal in Winter Haven, as well as surrounding projects. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, March 11, 2010

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

La k e l a n d

Lakeland MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

15000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

12000.0 11000.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

200.0 190.0 180.0 170.0

2.5

13000.0

210.0

160.0

Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product

10000.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Lakeland Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Lakeland Real Personal Income

Lakeland Payroll Employment 220.0

1.5

14000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.5

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income

La k e l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL* March 2010 Forecast

2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 Personal Income (Billions $)

18.4 -0.2 7.6 10.8 15 -1.4 31.1 25.3 38.2 1.5

18.9 4.4 7.7 11.2 15.3 2.3 31.8 25.8 38.5 4.3

19.1 5 7.7 11.4 15.5 3.2 32.1 26 38.8 3.7

19.3 5.9 7.7 11.6 15.6 4.4 32.4 26.2 39.1 3.7

19.5 5.6 7.7 11.7 15.7 4.4 32.6 26.3 39.3 3.1

19.7 4.3 7.8 11.9 15.8 3.1 32.9 26.4 39.5 2.6

19.9 4.1 7.8 12 15.9 2.6 33 26.4 39.7 2.2

20.1 4 7.9 12.2 16 2.3 33.3 26.5 39.8 1.8

20.3 4.2 8 12.3 16.1 2.6 33.5 26.6 40 1.7

20.6 4.5 8 12.5 16.2 2.8 33.8 26.7 40.2 1.7

20.9 5.1 8.1 12.7 16.4 3.5 34.1 26.9 40.4 1.7

21.1 5.4 8.2 12.9 16.6 3.8 34.4 27 40.6 1.8

21.4 5.4 8.3 13.1 16.7 3.9 34.7 27.1 40.8 1.9

21.7 5.4 8.4 13.2 16.9 3.9 35 27.2 41.1 2.1

22 5.3 8.6 13.4 17 3.7 35.2 27.3 41.3 2.3

195.5 -1.6 14.9 0.3 180.6 -1.7 10.6 -9 43.5 -0.9 9 23.3 11.1 1.9 -1.5 11.3 -2.4 28.6 -4.1 30.5 0.9 16 -0.3 8.5 0.5 1.4 1.9 28.5 -1.9

195.7 -0.9 15 1.8 180.7 -1.1 10.6 -5.9 43.6 -0.1 9 23.2 11.2 1.9 0.5 11.3 -1.5 28.6 -3.4 30.4 0.6 16 0.3 8.5 0.7 1.3 -0.9 28.4 -1.6

196 -0.3 15.2 3.1 180.8 -0.6 10.7 -2.7 43.8 0.8 9.1 23.1 11.4 1.9 4.9 11.3 -1.1 28.2 -3.1 30.7 0.9 16 0.6 8.5 0.8 1.3 -11.9 28.3 -1.4

196.9 0.5 15.4 4.3 181.5 0.2 10.8 0.8 44.3 1.9 9.3 23.2 11.6 1.9 4.7 11.4 -0.2 28.1 -2.2 30.9 1.5 16 -0.2 8.5 0.4 1.3 -6.4 28.3 -1

197.9 1.3 15.6 4.8 182.4 1 10.9 2.8 44.8 2.9 9.4 23.4 11.8 2 3.5 11.4 1.2 28.2 -1.3 31 1.9 15.9 -0.3 8.6 0.5 1.3 -2.7 28.3 -0.6

198.8 1.6 15.8 5.2 183 1.3 11.1 4.2 45.2 3.7 9.5 23.5 12 2 3.3 11.5 1.8 28.1 -1.9 31.1 2.1 15.9 -0.2 8.5 0.1 1.3 -1.8 28.3 -0.2

200 2 15.9 4.8 184.1 1.8 11.3 5.4 45.6 4.1 9.6 23.6 12.1 2 2.6 11.6 2.3 28 -0.6 31.2 1.9 16 0.2 8.5 -0.1 1.3 -1.2 28.5 0.6

201.4 2.3 16.1 4.6 185.4 2.1 11.4 6 46 3.9 9.6 23.7 12.3 2 2.7 11.6 2.5 28.3 0.6 31.4 1.5 16.1 1.1 8.5 0 1.3 -0.9 28.6 1.2

203 2.6 16.2 4.1 186.8 2.4 11.6 6.3 46.4 3.6 9.7 23.9 12.5 2 2.9 11.7 2.5 28.7 1.9 31.5 1.4 16.2 2.1 8.6 0 1.3 -0.6 28.8 1.7

204.4 2.9 16.4 3.7 188.1 2.8 11.9 7.1 46.7 3.3 9.8 23.9 12.6 2 2.5 11.7 2.1 29.2 3.9 31.5 1.3 16.3 2.4 8.6 0.1 1.3 -0.5 28.9 2.2

206 3 16.5 3.5 189.5 2.9 12.1 7.6 47 3.1 9.9 24.1 12.7 2 2.4 11.8 1.7 29.5 5.2 31.6 1.2 16.4 2.4 8.6 0.2 1.3 -0.5 29.1 2.3

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

198.6 -3.4 14.8 -8.1 183.8 -3 11.7 -10 43.9 -6.4 9 23.4 11.5 1.9 -4.9 11.6 -2.8 29.8 -5.4 30.2 3 16 -2.5 8.5 -1.2 1.3 -2.4 29 1

197.5 -2.7 14.7 -5.9 182.7 -2.4 11.3 -9.4 43.6 -5.4 9 23.4 11.2 1.9 -3.8 11.4 -2.9 29.6 -2.8 30.2 2.2 15.9 -2.5 8.5 -0.1 1.4 0.4 28.9 0.4

196.6 -1.8 14.7 -3 181.8 -1.8 11 -9.2 43.5 -4.5 9 23.3 11.1 1.9 -3.7 11.4 -2.2 29.1 -2.2 30.4 2.6 15.9 -0.8 8.5 0 1.5 16.6 28.7 0.2

195.9 -1.7 14.7 -2.1 181.1 -1.6 10.7 -10.3 43.5 -2.9 8.9 23.3 11 1.9 -1.4 11.4 -2.3 28.8 -2.8 30.5 2.2 16 -0.6 8.5 0.9 1.4 9.8 28.6 -0.5

12992.4 13078.5 13071.6 13094.8 13123.7 13180.9 594.1 593.4 594.2 595.4 597.4 599.2 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 1 274.3 273.8 273.7 273.8 273.9 274 -0.5 -0.6 -0.4 0.9 -0.1 0.1 13 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.2 12.9 1391 1142 1337 1781 2509 3264 1391 1140 1353 1802 2493 3209 0 3 -16 -22 17 55

13221 13314.7 13427.1 13530.9 13659.1 601 602.9 605.4 608.2 611.2 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.7 273.9 274.1 274.4 275 275.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 12.5 12.1 11.7 11.2 10.7 4009 4710 5313 5559 5893 3910 4560 5089 5321 5644 100 150 224 238 249

13794 13937.6 14037.8 14151.2 614.3 617.3 620.5 623.8 1.9 2 2 2.1 276 276.8 277.7 278.7 0.7 0.9 1 1.2 10.2 9.8 9.4 9.1 6179 6291 6305 6405 5884 5947 5935 6010 294 344 371 395

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

La k e l a n d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL March 2010 Forecast

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

12.8 2.8 5.9 6.9 12.4 1.5 25.6 24.8 31.8 2

13.5 5.4 6.2 7.3 12.8 3.3 26.4 25 33.3 4.5

14.9 10.3 6.6 8.2 13.8 7.5 28.4 26.2 33.7 1.5

16.3 9.8 7.3 9 14.7 6.6 30.1 27 35.1 4

17.7 8.4 7.9 9.9 15.5 5.5 31.6 27.6 36.8 4.8

18.3 3.4 8 10.3 15.6 0.7 31.8 27.1 37.3 1.4

18.6 1.4 7.9 10.7 15.3 -1.9 31.8 26.2 37.6 0.8

18.2 -1.8 7.6 10.7 15 -2 30.8 25.3 37.6 -0.1

19.2 5.2 7.7 11.5 15.5 3.6 32.2 26.1 39 3.7

20 4.2 7.9 12.1 15.9 2.6 33.2 26.5 39.8 2.1

21 5.1 8.2 12.8 16.5 3.5 34.3 26.9 40.5 1.8

22.1 5.4 8.6 13.5 17.1 3.8 35.4 27.4 41.5 2.4

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

182.9 -0.3 18.4 -2.2 164.4 -0.1 13.6 -2.8 44 -3 8.5 25 10.4 2.4 -4.9 10.8 5.3 21.6 1.8 22.5 -1.3 15.8 4.8 7.4 5.1 1.4 3 24.9 0.1

184.7 1 18.1 -1.9 166.6 1.3 12.9 -5.1 42.1 -4.2 9.1 22.5 10.5 2.2 -7.9 11 2 26.4 22.2 22.9 1.7 15 -5.4 7.5 0.9 1.4 -3 25.3 1.6

195.6 5.9 18.2 0.6 177.4 6.5 14.4 11.4 43.9 4.3 9.4 23.5 11 2.2 -1.1 10.9 -1 31.7 20 24.1 5.3 15.3 2.2 8 7.6 1.3 -2.4 25.5 1

208.1 6.4 18.3 0.4 189.8 7 16.2 12.6 47.6 8.4 10.3 25.3 12.1 2.3 3 11.1 1.8 34.2 7.9 25.6 6.1 16.5 7.7 9 11.9 1.4 4.4 26 2

212.6 2.2 17.9 -2.2 194.8 2.6 16.9 4.1 48.9 2.8 10.4 26.1 12.5 2.4 2.9 11.6 4.1 33.9 -0.8 26.6 4.2 17 2.7 9.5 5.5 1.4 -0.6 26.7 2.6

212.7 0.1 17.2 -3.5 195.5 0.4 15.8 -6.5 49 0.1 10.1 26.4 12.5 2.2 -7.8 11.8 2.4 33 -2.5 28 5.1 17.4 2.9 9 -5.3 1.4 1.2 27.9 4.3

208.5 -2 16.3 -5.2 192.2 -1.7 13.7 -13.4 47.7 -2.6 9.6 26.2 12 2.1 -4.3 12 1.2 32 -3 29.1 3.9 17.1 -1.8 8.6 -3.9 1.4 -0.1 28.4 2

200.3 -4 15.2 -7.1 185.1 -3.7 12.1 -11.8 45.1 -5.6 9.1 24.4 11.5 1.9 -7.1 11.7 -2.7 29.9 -6.6 29.8 2.4 16.1 -6 8.5 -1.9 1.3 -5.3 28.8 1.3

196.3 -2 14.8 -2.7 181.6 -1.9 10.9 -9.5 43.5 -3.4 9 23.3 11.1 1.9 -2.6 11.4 -2.5 29 -3 30.4 2 15.9 -1.1 8.5 0.3 1.4 7.1 28.7 -0.5

196.6 0.1 15.3 3.5 181.3 -0.1 10.8 -1.3 44.1 1.4 9.2 23.2 11.5 1.9 3.4 11.3 -0.4 28.3 -2.5 30.8 1.2 16 0.1 8.5 0.6 1.3 -5.6 28.3 -1.1

200.8 2.1 16 4.6 184.8 1.9 11.4 5.5 45.8 3.8 9.6 23.7 12.2 2 2.9 11.6 2.3 28.3 0 31.3 1.7 16.1 0.8 8.5 0 1.3 -1.1 28.6 0.8

206.5 2.8 16.5 3.2 190 2.8 12.2 7.6 47.1 3 9.9 24.1 12.8 2 2.4 11.8 1.6 29.6 4.7 31.6 1.1 16.4 2.1 8.6 0.2 1.3 -0.5 29.2 2.4

11227 500.4 1.6 238.1 0.8 5.8 4907 4484 423

11659 510.9 2.1 239.7 0.7 5.5 6789 6169 620

12188 524.8 2.7 247.4 3.2 4.9 9088 8297 790

13014 542.7 3.4 254.2 2.8 4 12877 11725 1152

13460 560.9 3.3 260.6 2.5 3.6 9528 8279 1249

13272 575.9 2.7 266.4 2.2 4.5 4384 4004 380

13185 584.4 1.5 272.8 2.4 6.7 3223 2431 792

12885 591.2 1.2 274 0.4 11.7 1255 1253 2

13092 595.1 0.7 273.8 -0.1 13.4 1692 1697 -5

13286 602.1 1.2 274.1 0.1 12.3 4324 4192 132

13730 612.7 1.8 275.8 0.6 10.5 5980 5699 281

14200 625.6 2.1 279.4 1.3 9 6458 6051 407

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

Mia m i – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – Mia m i B each

P r o fi l e s The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, this area is home to many sports teams, such as the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins, and the Florida Panthers. Other major businesses also reside in this metro, including the Miami Seaquarium, the University of Miami, and Florida International University. Quick Facts:

• Metro area population estimate of 5,414,772 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,398,245 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Broward County population estimate of 1,751,234 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,265,293 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 2,831,077 in April 2009 for the metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• An unemployment rate of 8.5% as of April 2009, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 240,849 unemployed people for the metro area. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Miami-Dade County Public Schools – 54,861 employees

• Miami-Dade County – 32,000 employees • Federal Government – 20,400 employees • Florida State Government – 17,000 employees

• Publix Super Markets – 11,760 employees

• Jackson Health System – 10,500 employees • University of Miami – 9,874 employees • American Airlines – 9,000 employees

• Miami-Dade College – 6,500 employees Source: The Beacon Council

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Miami Beach area is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 5.1 percent annually, and the per capita income level, at 38.2, is the second highest in Florida. Average annual wage growth will be 2.8 percent. The average annual wage level is expected to be 51.6, the highest in the state. Miami is expected to average population growth of 0.4 percent each year. The area has the highest Gross Metro Product in the state, at a level of 221,935.55 (Mill).

Employment is expected to grow at an average rate of 1.7 percent each year, while unemployment is expected to be 10.0 percent.

Miami’s fastest growing sector is expected to be the Professional & Business Services sector at 7.0 percent annually, followed by Manufacturing at an average of 1.7 percent growth each year and Education and Health Services with a 1.4 percent growth rate. The State & Local Government, Financial, and Federal Government sectors are the only sectors that will experience declines, with average annual growth rates of -0.1 percent, -0.3 percent, and -0.7 percent respectively.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Miami taxpayers may be hit by city’s financial woes • Miami taxpayers could end up with the burden of severe fines and sanctions related to a federal investigation into the city’s budget; one that revealed a misrepresentation of economic figures by Miami officials.

• Baptist Health South Florida – 10,826 employees

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Mia m i – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – Mia m i B each

• Having dealt with similar actions from Miami in the past, the Securities and Exchange Commission is currently investigating the potentially illegal book-balancing transfer of $26.4 million. • For a city with a budget crisis as severe as Miami’s, another burden on taxpayers will undoubtedly slow the progress of public works and services. Source: The Miami Herald, January 15, 2010 Critics fuming over Davie’s $12.5 million land buy • The town of Davie has spent over one-third of its reserve fund on land that many say the city will never need. The total amount of money spent was roughly $9 million. • Town spokesman Braulia Rosa defended the city’s decision to purchase the land, stating that “values are going to start going up. It was an opportunity to buy before land prices go up.” • Critics of the purchase claim that the deal cost the town desperately scarce funds, arguing that in light of the economic slump, the money could have been put towards a more constructive cause. Source: The Miami Herald, February 4, 2010 Jackson Health System to cut 900 jobs • In an attempt to save up to $120 million, financially troubled Jackson Health System has released a plan to cut roughly 900 jobs. • The Miami-based health system that employs 12,000 claims that the company would face a $200 million budget deficit if it didn’t trim its labor force by 900. • Miami-Dade Commissioner Sally Heyman berated Jackson representatives, arguing that “gross incompetence” along with a completely inefficient cost containment structure resulted in their financial crisis. Source: The Miami Herald, February 23, 2010 50

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

Miami Dolphins drop push for bill to raise hotel taxes for stadium upgrades • After several weeks of lobbying, the Miami Dolphins have backed off an effort to get a bill passed that would allow for an increase in the hotel tax rate in Miami Dade from 6% to 7%. • The team intended to use the revenue from the tax to fund over $200 million in renovations to the Dolphins Stadium, an update they claimed would be crucial in attracting future Super Bowls to the city. • Several public officials opposed the bill such as Mike Bennett, a Republican senator from Bradenton, stating, “I decided not to file the bill because they’re still talking about how to make this work for the Miami Dolphins and the citizens of Miami-Dade.” Source: The Miami Herald, February 23, 2010 In Miami, Haitian workers struggle to send money home • United by the tragic earthquake in Haiti, a group of Haitian street vendors in Miami have bound together in an effort to send as much money to their loved ones from their home country as possible. • The group of female shopkeepers struggled to send money home to their impoverished families before the earthquake. But now that it is more crucial than ever to provide support, the street vendors are taking whatever means necessary to raise funds. • The floundering Miami economy has resulted in a noticeable decline in traffic for the street markets, a factor that has left many feeling helpless to aid the suffering of their home nation. Source: The Miami Herald, February 26, 2010

Mia m i – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – Mia m i B each Miami - Ford Lauderdale - Miami Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

1.2

1.4

1.6

240000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

200000.0 180000.0 160000.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

2400.0 2300.0 2200.0 2100.0 2000.0

Miami Real Gross Metro Product

140000.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Miami Payroll Employment

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Miami Real Personal Income

Miami Payroll Employment 2500.0

0.8

220000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.4

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Mia m i – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – Mia m i B each

Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL* March 2010 Forecast

2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 Personal Income (Billions $)

236.4 -0.6 110.9 125.5 192.6 -1.8 43.2 35.2 48.6 1.5

242.6 4.1 111.8 130.8 196.8 2 44.5 36.1 49.2 4.3

245.4 5.1 112.8 132.6 199 3.3 45.1 36.6 49.6 3.8

248.4 6.1 113.7 134.7 200.7 4.6 45.7 36.9 50 3.9

250.8 6.1 114.6 136.2 202 4.9 46.1 37.1 50.3 3.5

253.4 4.4 115.6 137.7 203.3 3.3 46.6 37.4 50.6 3

255.6 4.1 116.7 138.9 204.2 2.6 46.9 37.5 50.9 2.6

258.2 3.9 117.9 140.2 205.4 2.3 47.4 37.7 51.1 2.1

261.4 4.2 119.5 141.9 207.1 2.5 47.9 37.9 51.4 2

265 4.6 121.1 143.8 209.2 2.9 48.5 38.3 51.7 2

268.7 5.2 122.7 146 211.4 3.5 49 38.6 51.9 2.1

272.3 5.5 124.5 147.9 213.4 3.9 49.6 38.9 52.2 2.2

275.9 5.6 126.4 149.5 215.5 4 50.1 39.1 52.5 2.3

279.9 5.6 128.5 151.4 217.7 4.1 50.7 39.4 53 2.5

284.1 5.7 130.5 153.5 220.1 4.1 51.3 39.7 53.4 2.8

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2266.6 -2.7 83.3 -8.1 2183.3 -2.5 103.5 -17.2 514.8 -3 143.8 278.2 92.8 47.6 -3.7 161.1 -4.4 348.2 -0.5 334.7 0.4 247.2 -2.3 102.3 -1 33.6 -1.5 290.5 -0.2

2261 -2 82.7 -7.5 2178.4 -1.8 100 -16.6 512.2 -2.8 143.5 277.5 89.9 47.3 -3.4 159.9 -4.4 353.3 2.9 334.2 0.4 246.3 -2.9 102.5 0.9 34.3 0.9 288.6 -0.6

2261.7 -0.7 82.6 -4.9 2179.1 -0.5 97.3 -13.8 510.4 -2.7 143.8 276.5 89.2 45.9 -4.6 159.4 -3 358 5.3 334.6 1.7 245.9 -0.5 102.4 0.6 38.5 14.1 286.6 -0.7

2260.1 -0.6 82.5 -3.1 2177.6 -0.5 94.9 -13.1 509.5 -1.9 142.7 277 88.5 46.2 -2.9 158.9 -2.4 361.6 5.4 335.4 1.6 247.1 -1 103 0.7 35.9 6.8 285.1 -2.1

2262.7 -0.2 83.1 -0.3 2179.6 -0.2 94.5 -8.7 509.1 -1.1 142.7 276.8 88.8 46.8 -1.6 157.7 -2.1 368.4 5.8 335.8 0.3 246.5 -0.3 103.1 0.8 34.1 1.4 283.8 -2.3

2270.6 0.4 83.8 1.4 2186.8 0.4 94.9 -5.1 508.9 -0.6 142.9 275.5 89.6 47.4 0.4 157.2 -1.7 376.5 6.6 335.5 0.4 246.2 0 103.5 1 33.7 -1.6 283 -1.9

2280.3 0.8 84.9 2.9 2195.4 0.7 95.5 -1.8 511.1 0.1 144.3 274.7 90.7 48.1 4.6 157 -1.5 381.1 6.4 337.2 0.8 246.3 0.2 103.6 1.2 33.4 -13.1 282 -1.6

2295.2 1.6 86 4.2 2209.2 1.5 96.6 1.8 515.3 1.2 146.5 275.3 92.2 48.2 4.4 157.6 -0.8 387.4 7.1 339.9 1.4 245.5 -0.7 103.7 0.7 33.3 -7.3 281.6 -1.3

2313.3 2.2 87.1 4.9 2226.2 2.1 98 3.8 519.9 2.1 147.8 277.3 93.2 48.3 3.1 158.3 0.4 396.8 7.7 341.8 1.8 244.6 -0.8 103.9 0.8 33.2 -2.7 281.4 -0.8

2331.2 2.7 88.2 5.3 2243 2.6 99.6 5 524.2 3 149.2 278.6 94.6 48.7 2.7 159 1.2 404.2 7.4 343.5 2.4 245.1 -0.4 104 0.5 33 -2 281.6 -0.5

2350.3 3.1 88.9 4.7 2261.4 3 101.5 6.3 528.7 3.4 150.5 280.4 95.9 49 1.9 159.8 1.8 411.3 7.9 345 2.3 246.4 0 104 0.4 32.9 -1.5 282.8 0.3

2370.4 3.3 89.8 4.4 2280.6 3.2 103.4 7 532.2 3.3 151.7 281.6 96.9 49.1 1.8 160.6 1.9 419.5 8.3 346.7 2 248 1 104.1 0.4 32.9 -1.4 284.1 0.9

2392.1 3.4 90.5 3.9 2301.5 3.4 105.5 7.6 536.1 3.1 153.3 282.8 98 49.3 2.2 161.2 1.8 428.7 8 348.2 1.9 249.9 2.2 104.4 0.4 32.8 -1 285.5 1.4

2412.7 3.5 91.3 3.5 2321.5 3.5 107.9 8.3 539.4 2.9 154.7 283.8 98.9 49.6 1.9 161.4 1.5 438.3 8.4 349.1 1.6 251.6 2.6 104.5 0.5 32.8 -0.8 286.9 1.9

2433 3.5 91.9 3.3 2341.2 3.5 110.7 9.1 542.8 2.7 155.8 285.3 99.8 49.9 1.9 161.5 1.1 447 8.7 350.4 1.6 253 2.7 104.6 0.6 32.7 -0.7 288.5 2

209267 5470.1 0.3 2858.9 -0.1 11.1 2809 2355 454

210481 5446.8 -0.2 2844.8 0 11.3 2495 1485 1010

211071 5437.3 -0.4 2837.4 -0.7 11.5 2732 1898 834

211987 5434.4 -0.6 2833.1 -0.9 11.7 4136 3256 880

213058 5437.2 -0.6 2833.1 -0.9 11.5 7188 5338 1850

214388 5440.7 -0.1 2833.3 -0.4 11.2 10083 7515 2568

215502 5443.4 0.1 2831.9 -0.2 10.9 13104 9813 3291

217354 5449.1 0.3 2832.9 0 10.7 16158 12146 4012

219580 5458 0.4 2837 0.1 10.3 19080 13924 5157

221857 5468.3 0.5 2842.9 0.3 10 20765 15269 5496

224240 5480.3 0.7 2848.7 0.6 9.6 22602 16653 5950

226635 5493.5 0.8 2855.7 0.8 9.2 24934 17828 7107

229154 5508.1 0.9 2863 0.9 8.9 26960 18506 8454

231004 5523.6 1 2871.2 1 8.5 28567 19101 9466

232973 5540.3 1.1 2879.7 1.1 8.2 30084 19724 10360

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

Mia m i – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – Mia m i B each

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL March 2010 Forecast

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

174.2 4.4 85.4 88.9 168.7 3 33.5 32.4 38.6 3.1

179.7 3.1 89.5 90.2 170.5 1.1 34.1 32.4 40.3 4.6

195.6 8.8 95.6 100 180.8 6 36.6 33.9 41.9 3.7

211.9 8.4 103.5 108.4 190.3 5.2 39.2 35.2 43.7 4.4

229.9 8.5 110.6 119.3 200.8 5.6 42.4 37.1 45.8 4.8

237.3 3.2 114.3 123 201.9 0.5 43.8 37.2 47 2.7

239.3 0.9 113.5 125.8 197.1 -2.4 44 36.2 47.7 1.5

234.3 -2.1 110 124.3 192.5 -2.3 42.9 35.2 47.9 0.4

246.8 5.3 113.2 133.6 199.6 3.7 45.4 36.7 49.8 3.9

257.1 4.2 117.4 139.7 205 2.7 47.2 37.6 51 2.4

270.5 5.2 123.7 146.8 212.4 3.6 49.3 38.7 52.1 2.2

286.1 5.8 131.5 154.6 221.3 4.2 51.6 39.9 53.6 2.8

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

2198.7 -0.3 112.4 -8.7 2086.3 0.2 120.9 -1 516.4 -1.6 132.4 286.8 97.1 61.8 -6.2 162.8 1.7 324.2 0 274.6 4 225 -1.2 94 0.2 32.1 1.2 274.7 2.4

2204.7 0.3 103.4 -8 2101.3 0.7 122.4 1.2 510.9 -1.1 134.3 282.7 93.9 57.5 -6.9 164.3 1 325.6 0.4 284 3.4 229.4 2 95.8 1.9 34.1 6.2 277.4 1

2270.1 3 100.8 -2.5 2169.3 3.2 131.5 7.5 517.4 1.3 138.7 285.6 93.2 56.6 -1.6 170 3.5 348.4 7 293.5 3.4 240.3 4.7 97.7 2 34.2 0.4 279.8 0.9

2355.1 3.7 101.1 0.3 2253.9 3.9 147.4 12.1 530.5 2.5 141.2 294 95.3 55.9 -1.1 178.2 4.8 375.1 7.7 301.5 2.7 247.5 3 99 1.3 34.5 1 284.3 1.6

2401 2 100.6 -0.5 2300.4 2.1 164.3 11.5 543.8 2.5 144.6 303.4 95.7 53.2 -4.8 183.5 2.9 375.7 0.2 307.9 2.1 251.6 1.7 99.3 0.3 34 -1.4 287.1 1

2416.5 0.6 98.6 -2 2318 0.8 161.1 -2 550 1.1 147.6 306 96.5 52 -2.4 181.3 -1.2 371.1 -1.2 318.8 3.5 257.9 2.5 100.8 1.5 34 -0.2 291.1 1.4

2364.7 -2.1 93.2 -5.5 2271.5 -2 135.5 -15.9 541.6 -1.5 145.3 300.5 95.8 50.4 -3 172.2 -5 356.5 -3.9 328.8 3.1 257.4 -0.2 103.6 2.8 34 0.1 291.6 0.2

2281.5 -3.5 86.1 -7.6 2195.4 -3.3 111.3 -17.8 521.3 -3.7 144.6 283.7 93 48.1 -4.7 163.9 -4.8 343.7 -3.6 331.7 0.9 249.5 -3.1 101.9 -1.6 33.7 -0.8 290.2 -0.5

2261.4 -0.9 82.7 -4 2178.7 -0.8 96.6 -13.2 510.3 -2.1 143.2 277 89.1 46.6 -3.1 159 -3 360.3 4.8 335 1 246.4 -1.2 102.7 0.8 35.7 5.8 286 -1.4

2289.9 1.3 85.5 3.3 2204.4 1.2 96.3 -0.4 513.8 0.7 145.4 275.7 91.4 48 3.1 157.5 -0.9 385.4 7 338.6 1.1 245.6 -0.3 103.7 0.9 33.4 -6.4 282 -1.4

2361 3.1 89.4 4.6 2271.6 3.1 102.5 6.5 530.3 3.2 151.2 280.9 96.3 49 2.2 160.1 1.7 415.9 7.9 345.9 2.1 247.4 0.7 104.1 0.4 32.9 -1.5 283.5 0.5

2441.6 3.4 92 2.9 2349.6 3.4 111.8 9.1 544 2.6 156.3 285.8 100.2 50 1.9 161.7 1 450.9 8.4 351.1 1.5 253.4 2.5 104.8 0.6 32.7 -0.7 289.1 2

181143 5203.2 1.6 2573.3 1.1 6.2 37858 21870 15987

187609 5267 1.2 2587.4 0.5 5.7 37956 23592 14364

196701 5338.5 1.4 2618.8 1.2 5.1 40690 23676 17014

212212 5399.9 1.2 2683.7 2.5 4.2 41844 22548 19295

220989 5420.2 0.4 2750.7 2.5 3.6 32801 15772 17029

222317 5421 0 2811.7 2.2 4.1 14808 7592 7216

219025 5444.7 0.4 2850.2 1.4 5.8 7959 3711 4248

212141 5463.4 0.3 2855.2 0.2 9.9 3513 2198 1316

211649 5438.9 -0.4 2837.1 -0.6 11.5 4138 2994 1144

216706 5447.8 0.2 2833.8 -0.1 10.8 14606 10849 3757

225471 5487.5 0.7 2852.6 0.7 9.4 23816 17064 6752

233916 5549.1 1.1 2884.6 1.1 8.1 30448 19971 10477

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Nap l e s – Ma r c o I s l a n d

P r o fi l e s The Naples–Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier County only. Located on the southwest coast of Florida, the area is notable for numerous recreation and leisure activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the “Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida.” Quick Facts:

• Population estimate of 315,258 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 149,548 in April 2009 (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• An unemployment rate of 9.2% as of April 2009, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 13,772 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• Collier County Public Schools – 5,365 employees • Collier County Government – 3,788 employees

• NCH Healthcare System – 2,269 employees

• Registry Resort/Naples Grand – 880 employees • Ritz Carlton Hotel – 870 employees • City of Naples – 493 employees

• Naples Beach and Tennis Club – 482 employees

• Allen Systems Group – 221 employees

• Collier County Health Department – 219 employees

• Wilson Miller, Inc. – 140 employees Source: Naples Homes Real Estate and Relocation Services

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Naples–Marco Island MSA is expected to show moderate to strong growth in the economic indicators. The metro area is ranked number one in the state of Florida for personal income growth, with a 6.4 percent growth rate, and also for per capita income level, which is expected to be 57.4. Average annual wage will be the second highest in the state at a level of 51.1. The average annual wage is expected to grow at a rate of 2.9 percent, one of the highest in the state. Population growth will average at 1.1 percent, and the Gross Metro Product level will be at 11,547.75 (Mill).

Employment growth is expected to average 1.2 percent each year. The metro will see an unemployment rate of 10.9 percent. The Information sector represents Naples’ fastest growing sector, growing at a rate of 3.0 percent each year. The Manufacturing and Education and Health Services sectors follow with growth rates of 2.1 percent and 2.0 percent respectively. No sectors are expected to experience declining growth rates. The Federal Government and Professional & Business Services sectors will see the least growth, with annual growth rates of 0.4 percent and 0.2 percent respectively.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Hodges University expanding Naples campus for enrollment growth • Hodges University announced that it is expanding its Naples campus to accommodate strong enrollment growth. The private, nonprofit university acquired a two-story building adjacent to the campus. • The multi-million dollar expansion will house Allied Health and Technology programs, nearly doubling the space provided for these programs. The building also has a lecture hall that will accommodate up to 300 people and will be used for special events.

Nap l e s – Ma r c o I s l a n d

• Hodges enrollment for the current semester is around 2,750 students, up from 2,228 students last year. Source: Naples News, January 20, 2010 Crist’s education budget up, but Lee schools face reduced spending again • After Governor Crist’s release of a record education budget, Lee County School District is ironically facing a second year of budget reductions. • The district must slash the $1.42 billion budget this year by $1 million to $28 million. This projection is significantly smaller, however, than last year’s $140 million in cuts the district made to the 2009-10 budget. • Crist’s education budget will be taken into consideration by the Legislature over the next few months. In 2008 the governor’s budget was much larger than the actual budget passed by the Legislature, so the school district is basing the current predictions on this difference. Source: Naples News, February 25, 2010 Judge dismisses property rights claim over Collier growth plan • Collier Circuit Judge Hugh Hayes dismissed a property rights claim filed by HHH Ranch in 2008 over Collier County’s rural growth plan. • The 2002 landmark rural growth plan rearranged where development could occur on Golden Gate Estates. Landowners who lost development rights as a result of this plan could either sell or transfer their rights to areas that were less environmentally sensitive. • HHH Ranch’s $92 million claim accused the county of illegally taking away their mine rock from land north of Interstate 75 and east of Collier Boulevard.

• Judge Hayes cited a Panama City ruling in his dismissal of the case. Source: Naples News, March 3, 2010 Immokalee farmworkers still in desperate need for basic necessities following crop freeze • Following January’s crop-killing freeze that left many without work, the Salvation Army of Collier County opened a food distribution center to assist farm workers in Immokalee. The agency is providing food to more than 850 farm workers on a weekly basis, and will continue to do so until the week of April 6. • The Guadalupe Center’s soup kitchen is now serving 400 to 500 daily, twice as many people than in past years. • Harry Chapin Food Bank has provided nearly $300,000 worth of food since the freeze at several distribution sites in Collier, Hendry, and Glades counties. Source: Naples News, March 11, 2010 Goodland Boat Park set for summertime launch • Collier County is set to complete the Goodland Boat Park facility by this summer despite setbacks, including unforeseen soil conditions and seawall and water issues. These setbacks have resulted in increased project costs, which have climbed to a total of $1,791,780. • The facility will increase boat launch capacity with a double boat launching ramp, with each lane expected to handle as many as 36 launches each day. • The park will also include four 300-gallon live bait tanks, a picnic pavilion, a dockmaster station, park benches, and bike racks, among other amenities. Source: Naples News, March 18, 2010

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Nap l e s – Ma r c o I s l a n d Naples MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

13000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

12000.0

9000.0 8000.0 7000.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

6000.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Real Personal Income 24.0%

(percent change year ago)

20.0% 16.0%

120.0

12.0%

110.0

8.0%

100.0

4.0%

90.0

2.5

10000.0

130.0

80.0

Naples Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Payroll Employment 140.0

1.5

11000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.5

0.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Naples Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

-4.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income

Nap l e s â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Ma r c o I s l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL* March 2010 Forecast

2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 Personal Income (Billions $)

20.3 -0.6 5.5 14.8 16.6 -1.8 63.7 51.9 48.1 1.5

21.1 5.5 5.6 15.6 17.1 3.3 66.3 53.8 48.6 4.3

21.4 6.6 5.6 15.8 17.4 4.8 67.1 54.5 49 4

21.8 8.7 5.6 16.2 17.6 7.1 68.2 55.1 49.5 4

22.1 8.7 5.7 16.4 17.8 7.4 69 55.6 49.8 3.6

22.4 6 5.7 16.7 18 4.8 69.8 56 50.1 3.2

22.7 5.8 5.8 16.9 18.1 4.2 70.4 56.3 50.4 2.7

23 5.3 5.8 17.1 18.3 3.6 71.1 56.6 50.6 2.3

23.3 5.4 5.9 17.4 18.5 3.6 71.9 57 50.9 2.2

23.6 5.6 6 17.7 18.7 3.9 72.7 57.4 51.2 2.2

24.1 6.2 6 18 18.9 4.6 73.8 58 51.5 2.2

24.5 6.6 6.1 18.3 19.2 5 74.7 58.5 51.8 2.3

24.8 6.6 6.2 18.6 19.4 5 75.4 58.9 52.1 2.4

25.2 6.6 6.4 18.8 19.6 5 76.2 59.3 52.5 2.6

25.6 6.3 6.5 19.1 19.8 4.7 77 59.7 52.9 2.8

113.3 -1 2.6 0.2 110.7 -1 10.1 -11.3 20.6 0.1 3.2 16 1.3 1.7 1.4 7 -2 13.8 -1.9 16.9 2.5 21.3 1.4 6 2.2 0.7 8.5 12.6 -2.6

113.3 -0.8 2.6 0.6 110.7 -0.9 10 -8.5 20.7 0.3 3.3 16 1.4 1.7 -0.4 7 -1.3 13.7 -3.3 16.9 1.8 21.3 0.5 6.1 2 0.7 3.7 12.5 -0.6

113.6 -0.1 2.6 2.2 110.9 -0.1 10.1 -5 20.7 0.9 3.3 16 1.4 1.7 1.9 7 -0.5 13.8 -3.1 16.9 1.6 21.4 1.2 6.1 2.3 0.7 0.7 12.5 -0.3

113.9 0.5 2.7 3.4 111.3 0.5 10.1 -1.8 20.8 1.5 3.3 16 1.4 1.8 6.1 7 -0.4 13.6 -2.6 17.1 1.7 21.5 1.8 6.1 2.5 0.7 -10.7 12.5 -0.2

114.5 1.1 2.7 4.4 111.8 1 10.3 1.7 21 2.1 3.4 16.1 1.4 1.8 6.3 7 0.2 13.6 -1.6 17.2 2.2 21.5 1 6.2 2.1 0.7 -5.3 12.5 -0.1

115.2 1.7 2.7 4.8 112.5 1.6 10.4 3.7 21.3 2.8 3.5 16.3 1.4 1.8 5.1 7.1 1.5 13.7 -0.7 17.3 2.4 21.5 0.9 6.2 2.3 0.7 -1.8 12.6 0.2

115.8 2 2.8 5.2 113.1 1.9 10.6 4.8 21.5 3.6 3.5 16.4 1.5 1.8 4.7 7.1 2.4 13.6 -1.1 17.4 2.6 21.6 1 6.2 1.9 0.7 -0.8 12.6 0.4

116.8 2.6 2.8 4.9 114.1 2.5 10.7 5.9 21.7 4.2 3.5 16.6 1.5 1.8 3.9 7.2 3.2 13.7 0.3 17.5 2.5 21.8 1.3 6.2 1.7 0.7 -0.2 12.7 1.4

118 3 2.8 4.8 115.2 3 10.9 6.7 21.9 4.1 3.6 16.7 1.5 1.8 3.8 7.3 3.6 13.9 1.7 17.6 2.2 22 2.3 6.3 1.7 0.7 0.2 12.8 2.1

119.2 3.5 2.8 4.4 116.4 3.5 11.1 7.2 22.1 3.9 3.6 16.8 1.5 1.9 4 7.3 3.7 14.1 3.2 17.7 2.2 22.3 3.4 6.3 1.7 0.7 0.5 12.9 2.8

120.4 4 2.9 4 117.5 4 11.4 8.3 22.3 3.8 3.7 16.9 1.6 1.9 3.7 7.4 3.4 14.3 5.3 17.8 2.4 22.4 3.8 6.3 1.8 0.7 0.7 13 3.4

121.8 4.2 2.9 3.9 118.9 4.2 11.7 9.1 22.5 3.8 3.7 17.1 1.6 1.9 3.7 7.4 3 14.6 6.4 17.9 2.5 22.6 3.8 6.3 1.9 0.7 0.7 13.2 3.7

10851.3 10962.6 10967.4 11003.5 319.4 318.9 319.1 319.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 145.7 146.3 147.3 148.4 -4 -3.1 -1.5 2.1 12.5 12.8 13 13 856 956 1060 1322 748 665 797 1046 108 291 263 276

11046 320.2 0.2 149.8 2.8 12.7 1816 1401 414

11114 11174.8 11278.5 11393.2 11499.8 11636.8 11778.9 11930.5 12047.4 12182.6 320.9 321.7 322.7 323.9 325 326.2 327.5 329.1 330.6 332.2 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 151.1 152.3 153.6 155.2 156.8 157.8 158.8 159.9 161.2 162.4 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.1 2.7 2.9 12.4 12 11.6 11.2 10.8 10.3 9.8 9.4 9 8.7 2261 2662 3014 3289 3503 3788 4123 4388 4578 4785 1764 2098 2380 2579 2748 2970 3141 3217 3261 3345 498 563 634 709 755 818 981 1171 1317 1440

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

114.2 -7 2.6 -9.4 111.6 -7 11 -18.3 20.6 -12.7 3.2 16 1.4 1.7 -1.9 7.1 -2.3 14.2 -7.4 16.6 -0.2 21.2 -3.6 5.9 -0.6 0.7 0 12.6 -5.4

113.7 -5.8 2.6 -9.6 111.1 -5.7 10.6 -15.3 20.5 -11.6 3.2 16 1.3 1.7 -0.5 7 -4.8 14.2 -6.1 16.7 -0.3 21.1 -0.9 6 1.1 0.7 -2.1 12.6 -4.4

113.3 -3.7 2.6 -5.7 110.8 -3.6 10.3 -12.8 20.5 -7.6 3.2 15.9 1.3 1.7 -2.2 7 -4.4 14 -5.4 16.8 1.3 21.2 0.8 6 1.9 0.8 11.1 12.6 -3.1

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Nap l e s â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Ma r c o I s l a n d

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL March 2010 Forecast

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

11.9 5.9 4 7.9 11.6 4.4 43.2 41.8 36.2 1.9

12.7 6.6 4.5 8.2 12.1 4.4 44.4 42.2 39.5 9.3

15.3 20.4 5 10.3 14.2 17.3 51.6 47.7 41.3 4.5

17 10.8 5.6 11.4 15.3 7.6 55.3 49.6 43.6 5.6

19.3 13.7 6 13.3 16.9 10.7 61.8 54 44.4 1.7

20.2 4.7 6.2 14.1 17.2 2 64.2 54.6 46.4 4.6

20.5 1.5 6 14.6 16.9 -1.7 64.8 53.4 47.7 2.8

20.1 -2 5.6 14.6 16.5 -2.2 63.2 52 47.4 -0.7

21.6 7.3 5.6 16 17.5 5.7 67.7 54.7 49.2 4

22.8 5.6 5.8 17 18.2 4.1 70.8 56.5 50.5 2.6

24.2 6.2 6.1 18.1 19 4.6 74.2 58.2 51.7 2.3

25.8 6.5 6.5 19.3 20 4.9 77.6 60 53.1 2.8

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

110.8 4.1 3.1 -3.4 107.7 4.3 14.7 1.1 22.7 2.1 3.3 17.6 1.9 1.8 -0.9 6.5 4.6 13.4 7.1 12.8 5.1 18.3 5.3 5.5 7 0.7 0 11.3 7.1

114.2 3 2.9 -5.3 111.2 3.3 14.6 -0.8 22.4 -1.3 3.1 17.7 1.7 1.7 -3.3 6.7 2.6 16.1 19.8 13.2 3.3 18.5 1.2 5.5 -0.3 0.7 0 11.8 4.5

120.6 5.7 3.1 5.9 117.5 5.7 16.8 14.8 23 2.4 3.3 18 1.7 1.8 7.3 7.1 5.8 17.4 8.1 13.4 1.9 20 8.2 5.4 -1.4 0.7 0 11.9 0.9

128.3 6.3 3.2 3 125.1 6.4 20.3 21.3 24.3 5.6 3.4 19.1 1.8 1.8 0 7.7 9.3 16.3 -6.5 14.5 7.9 21.5 7.4 5.7 5.2 0.7 0 12.3 2.9

135 5.2 3.3 3.6 131.7 5.3 23.9 17.6 24.5 0.9 3.2 19.5 1.7 1.9 3.2 8.2 5.7 16.8 3.2 15.4 6 21.9 1.8 5.8 1.9 0.7 0 12.7 3.4

132 -2.3 3.3 -1.3 128.7 -2.3 19.7 -17.8 24.2 -1.3 3.4 19.2 1.6 1.8 -5 8.2 0.1 15.8 -6.2 16.2 5.5 23 4.9 5.9 3.2 0.7 0 13.3 4.6

124.6 -5.6 2.9 -10.8 121.6 -5.5 14.7 -25.5 23.5 -2.8 3.4 18.6 1.5 1.8 -1.6 7.4 -9.1 15.3 -3.2 16.5 1.7 22.5 -2.3 6.1 2.7 0.7 -3.8 13.3 0.2

116.7 -6.3 2.7 -8.4 114 -6.3 11.7 -20.4 21.7 -7.8 3.3 17 1.4 1.7 -4.5 7.2 -2.7 14.6 -4.6 16.6 0.7 21.1 -5.9 5.9 -3.5 0.7 1.4 12.9 -3.1

113.4 -2.9 2.6 -3.8 110.8 -2.8 10.3 -12.1 20.6 -5 3.2 16 1.3 1.7 -0.4 7 -3.1 14 -4.2 16.8 1.3 21.2 0.5 6 1.8 0.7 5.3 12.6 -2.7

114.3 0.8 2.7 3.7 111.6 0.7 10.2 -0.4 21 1.8 3.4 16.1 1.4 1.8 4.8 7 0.2 13.7 -2 17.1 2 21.5 1.2 6.1 2.3 0.7 -4.5 12.5 -0.1

117.5 2.8 2.8 4.8 114.7 2.7 10.8 6.2 21.8 3.9 3.6 16.6 1.5 1.8 4.1 7.2 3.2 13.8 1 17.6 2.4 21.9 2 6.2 1.7 0.7 -0.1 12.8 1.7

122.3 4.1 2.9 3.5 119.4 4.1 11.9 9.3 22.6 3.8 3.8 17.2 1.6 1.9 3.6 7.4 2.9 14.6 5.9 18 2.4 22.7 3.6 6.4 1.9 0.7 0.7 13.2 3.8

9429.8 276.6 4.1 129.6 4.9 5.1 7078 4279 2799

10210 286.5 3.6 133.1 2.7 4.9 5334 3403 1932

11154 297.1 3.7 138 3.6 4.2 6101 4018 2083

12373 307.3 3.4 145.2 5.3 3.4 5724 4038 1686

12584 312.8 1.8 152.7 5.2 3.1 4256 3050 1206

12318 315.2 0.8 153.2 0.3 4.2 1961 1161 800

11505 317 0.6 151.8 -0.9 6.7 986 688 298

10871 318.5 0.5 147.9 -2.5 11.1 833 655 178

10995 319.4 0.3 147.9 0 12.9 1289 977 311

11240 322.3 0.9 153 3.4 11.8 2806 2205 601

11712 327 1.4 158.3 3.5 10.1 3950 3019 931

12245 333 1.9 163.1 3 8.6 4820 3383 1437

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

Oca l a

P r o fi l e s Comprised of Marion County only, the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area in the center of the state. The second-largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area. Quick Facts:

• Population estimate of 329,628 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• A civilian labor force of 140,030 in April 2009 (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• An unemployment rate of 11.7% as of April 2009, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 16,410 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• Marion County Public Schools – 6,084 employees

• Munroe Regional Medical Center – 2,500 employees

• State of Florida (all departments) – 2,500 employees

• Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – 2,370 employees • Marion County Board of County Commissioners – 1,400 employees

• Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,404 employees

• Ocala Regional Medical Center – 1,301 employees • Taylor, Bean & Whitaker Mortgage Corporation – 1,238 employees • AT&T – 1,000 employees

• City of Ocala – 979 employees

Source: Ocala/Marion Economic Development Council

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Ocala MSA is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 5.8 percent annually, among the highest in the state. Per capita income level is the lowest in the state at a level of 26.2. Relative to other metro areas, Ocala will have the second lowest average annual wage level, at 38.0. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.8 percent. The metro has the highest expected annual population growth in the state, at 1.8 percent. The Gross Metro Product is expected to be 6,347.28 (Mill), the lowest in the state.

Employment growth is expected to average a rate of 1.2 percent annually. Unemployment for the metro will be 12.5 percent, the highest in the State.

The Education and Health Services sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in Ocala, averaging an annual growth rate of 1.9 percent. The Manufacturing sector and the Trade, Transportation, and Utility sector follow with growth rates of 1.8 percent and 1.7 percent respectively. The Financial sector is the only sector that will experience negative growth, with a growth rate of -1.7 percent.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Horse stall waste may provide green energy • A new fermentation facility that produces power out of stall waste has been presented in Marion County. This was the first completed project, and has received $500,000 out of $25 million set aside for the Farm and Fuel grants. • Jose Sifontes, former University of Florida engineer, estimated that the cost of the four tanks used in his fermentation machine was about $300,000, but they would pay for themselves in three years. He is planning to market the process to local communities and farms.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Oca l a • While not all of the projects that receive grant money will prove to be economically viable, the main goal of the grants is to strengthen the role of Florida farms in the production of both fuel and food. Source: The Ocala Star Banner, February 24, 2010 Munroe financial outlook brighter • The financial future of Munroe Regional Medical Center is less grim than previously anticipated. CFO Rich Mutarelli has announced that the hospital is expected to make a $3.2 million profit this fiscal year, compared to the $11.2 million loss in 2008. • While projections are better, showing an improved $17.1 million shortfall in fiscal year 2012, compared to the previously forecasted $30 million shortfall, no expense-cutting measures can prevent the upcoming losses. • Hospital trustees will discuss strategic management options such as mergers, joint ventures, and even the option of leasing the hospital to another company. Source: The Ocala Start Banner, February 24, 2010 Pine Oaks will stay open until end of June • Residents of Ocala are pleading with City Council to keep local Pine Oaks Golf Club open. City council has voted 4-1 to spend $87,000 in tax dollars to keep the golf course open until the end of June. • Pine Oaks is projected to lose $500,000 in 2010. The interested parties are looking at a solution where a non-profit civic body would take over Pine Oaks. • Pine Oaks holds historical significance to the residents of northwest Ocala. Some questioned why municipal golf courses, which also lose money, were still subsidized, while Pine Oaks was singled out for closure. Source: The Ocala Star Banner, March 4, 2010 60

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

Marion to receive $250k to prevent homelessness • Marion county charities have fallen on hard times, resulting from higher demand for utilities and mortgage assistance, coupled with fewer donations across the board. However, the county will receive $250,000 in federal assistance to distribute among local charities. • The increased demand is due to unusually cold weather, with temperatures in the teens driving electricity costs up, and a skyrocketing 15.4% unemployment rate in the county. • The private benefactors have become more conservative in their donations and have been renewing smaller amounts. Federal government assistance is also drying up, with stimulus money having been almost completely spent. Source: The Ocala Start Banner, March 16, 2010 Libraries fear funding cuts • Severe budget cuts are threatening Marion County’s library funding. The Florida Legislature intends to cut $21.2 million out of state library funding—the entire State Aid to Libraries program. • The cut is expected to result in $8 million of federal money lost as well, since the state is required to partially finance the libraries in order to receive money from the federal library fund. • The loss of funding is expected to shut down the rural libraries, obliterate regional library partnerships and cooperative services, and deprive libraries of the funds necessary to purchase new books and media. Source: The Ocala Star Banner, March 18, 2010

Oca l a Ocala MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

(percent)

0.6

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

7000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

6500.0 6000.0 5500.0 5000.0 4500.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

105.0 100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 80.0

Ocala Real Gross Metro Product

4000.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Ocala Payroll Employment

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Ocala Real Personal Income

Ocala Payroll Employment 110.0

0.8

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

Oca l a

Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL* March 2010 Forecast

2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 Personal Income (Billions $)

10.1 0.1 3.5 6.7 8.3 -1.2 29.9 24.4 35.8 1.5

10.5 5 3.5 6.9 8.5 2.9 30.9 25.1 36.2 4.4

10.6 5.6 3.5 7.1 8.6 3.8 31.3 25.4 36.5 3.9

10.7 7.1 3.6 7.2 8.7 5.5 31.7 25.6 36.8 3.9

10.9 7.2 3.6 7.3 8.8 6 31.9 25.7 37 3.4

11 5.3 3.6 7.4 8.8 4.2 32.2 25.8 37.2 3

11.1 5.1 3.6 7.5 8.9 3.6 32.4 25.9 37.4 2.6

11.3 4.8 3.7 7.6 9 3.2 32.7 26 37.6 2.1

11.4 5 3.7 7.7 9 3.3 33 26.1 37.8 2.1

11.6 5.3 3.8 7.8 9.1 3.6 33.3 26.3 38 2.1

11.8 5.9 3.8 8 9.3 4.2 33.6 26.4 38.2 2.1

12 6.1 3.9 8.1 9.4 4.6 33.9 26.6 38.4 2.2

12.1 6.2 3.9 8.2 9.5 4.6 34.1 26.7 38.7 2.3

12.3 6.1 4 8.3 9.6 4.5 34.4 26.8 39 2.5

12.5 5.9 4.1 8.4 9.7 4.3 34.7 26.9 39.2 2.7

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

96.8 -4.1 6.7 -13.3 90.2 -3.3 8.6 -6.9 20.9 -5 4 14.3 2.7 1.7 -3.6 4.9 -16.8 7.7 -4.2 14.3 1.9 9.9 -3 4.3 0.8 0.7 0 17.1 0.2

96.3 -3.7 6.6 -9.4 89.7 -3.2 8.3 -8.9 20.9 -3.8 4 14.3 2.6 1.7 -3.3 4.8 -17.9 7.7 -0.6 14.3 0.4 9.9 -2.9 4.4 1.2 0.7 -0.1 17 0

96.1 -3 6.6 -4.4 89.4 -2.9 8.1 -9.8 20.9 -2.7 4 14.3 2.6 1.7 -5.5 4.8 -17.8 7.6 -1.5 14.4 1.3 9.9 -2.2 4.4 1.4 0.8 13.1 17 -0.4

95.9 -1.9 6.6 -1.8 89.3 -1.9 7.9 -12 20.9 -1.4 4 14.3 2.6 1.7 -1 4.8 -8 7.5 -0.4 14.5 1.5 10 -0.9 4.4 2.3 0.7 6.1 16.9 -1

95.9 -0.9 6.7 0 89.3 -1 7.9 -8 20.9 0.1 4 14.3 2.6 1.7 -1.3 4.8 -1.8 7.5 -2.7 14.5 1.3 10 0.3 4.4 1.5 0.7 1.9 16.9 -1.3

96.1 -0.2 6.7 1.6 89.4 -0.3 7.9 -4.7 21 0.5 4 14.3 2.6 1.7 0.6 4.8 -0.9 7.5 -2.1 14.5 1.1 10 1 4.4 1.8 0.7 0.6 16.9 -0.9

96.5 0.5 6.8 3 89.7 0.3 8 -1.5 21.1 1.1 4 14.3 2.6 1.8 5 4.8 -0.7 7.5 -1.8 14.6 1.4 10 1.5 4.4 2 0.7 -10.8 16.8 -0.8

97.1 1.2 6.9 4.4 90.2 1 8.1 2.1 21.3 1.8 4.1 14.4 2.7 1.8 4.8 4.8 0 7.5 -0.9 14.8 2.1 10 0.7 4.5 1.6 0.7 -5.5 16.8 -0.5

97.8 1.9 7 5 90.8 1.7 8.2 4 21.5 2.7 4.1 14.5 2.7 1.8 3.6 4.9 1.4 7.5 -0.2 14.9 2.6 10 0.6 4.5 1.8 0.7 -2 16.9 0

98.4 2.3 7.1 5.3 91.3 2.1 8.3 5.4 21.7 3.5 4.2 14.6 2.8 1.8 3.4 4.9 2.1 7.5 -0.8 14.9 2.9 10.1 0.7 4.5 1.4 0.7 -1.3 16.9 0.3

99.2 2.8 7.2 4.8 92 2.6 8.5 6.6 21.9 4.1 4.2 14.8 2.8 1.8 2.7 4.9 2.8 7.5 0.5 15 2.8 10.1 1 4.5 1.2 0.7 -0.6 17 1.2

100.1 3.1 7.2 4.5 92.9 3 8.7 7.3 22.1 4 4.3 14.9 2.9 1.8 2.8 5 3.1 7.6 1.6 15.1 2.5 10.2 2 4.5 1.2 0.7 -0.2 17.1 1.8

101 3.3 7.3 4 93.7 3.3 8.8 7.6 22.3 3.8 4.3 15 2.9 1.8 3.1 5 3.1 7.7 3 15.2 2.3 10.3 3.1 4.5 1.1 0.7 0.1 17.3 2.4

101.9 3.6 7.4 3.6 94.5 3.6 9 8.5 22.5 3.6 4.3 15.1 2.9 1.9 2.6 5 2.8 7.8 5 15.3 2.3 10.4 3.4 4.5 1.3 0.7 0.3 17.4 2.9

102.9 3.7 7.4 3.4 95.5 3.7 9.3 9 22.7 3.4 4.4 15.2 3 1.9 2.6 5.1 2.4 8 6.2 15.4 2.2 10.5 3.4 4.6 1.3 0.7 0.2 17.5 3.1

5966.5 339.1 1.6 139.2 -1.2 14.2 401 394 6

6025.8 338 0.9 139.3 -1.2 14.6 389 368 22

6032.1 338.3 0.6 139.7 -0.7 14.8 541 520 21

6051.4 339 0.4 140.2 1.3 14.8 844 820 24

6073.4 340.5 0.4 140.8 1.1 14.5 1327 1283 44

6107.7 341.8 1.1 141.3 1.4 14.2 1836 1778 58

6143.1 343 1.4 141.7 1.4 13.8 2377 2308 70

6200 344.4 1.6 142.3 1.5 13.4 2936 2854 82

6267.4 346.3 1.7 142.9 1.5 13 3457 3360 97

6330.7 348.4 2 143.7 1.7 12.5 3637 3539 97

6405.9 350.6 2.2 144.2 1.8 12 3870 3774 96

6482.6 352.9 2.5 144.7 1.7 11.4 4064 3951 113

6561.2 355.2 2.6 145.4 1.7 11 4156 4022 134

6620.2 357.4 2.6 146.1 1.6 10.6 4194 4047 147

6687.5 359.9 2.6 146.9 1.9 10.2 4253 4094 159

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

Oca l a

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL March 2010 Forecast

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

6.5 3.1 2.5 4 6.3 1.7 23.7 23 28.2 4.7

7 7.6 2.7 4.2 6.6 5.4 24.8 23.5 30.1 6.6

7.7 10.6 3 4.7 7.1 7.8 26.4 24.4 30.9 2.6

8.6 11.6 3.3 5.3 7.7 8.4 28.2 25.4 32.1 3.9

9.6 12.1 3.7 6 8.4 9.1 30.5 26.6 34.5 7.4

10 4 3.7 6.3 8.5 1.3 30.7 26.2 34.8 0.9

10.2 1.6 3.6 6.5 8.4 -1.7 30.7 25.3 35.2 1.3

10 -1.4 3.5 6.6 8.3 -1.6 29.8 24.5 35.2 0.1

10.7 6.2 3.5 7.1 8.6 4.6 31.5 25.5 36.6 3.9

11.2 5.1 3.7 7.5 8.9 3.6 32.6 26 37.5 2.4

11.9 5.9 3.8 8 9.3 4.2 33.7 26.5 38.3 2.2

12.6 6 4.1 8.5 9.7 4.4 34.8 26.9 39.4 2.8

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

87 0.4 9.3 -5.5 77.7 1.1 7.3 4.3 20.5 -0.7 3.1 14.8 2.6 2.3 -4.5 4 1.1 7.2 0.5 9.7 5.3 7.6 0.3 3.6 3.6 0.7 2.3 14.7 0.7

89.9 3.4 9.2 -1 80.7 3.9 8.5 15.3 20.9 2 3.3 15.1 2.5 2.2 -5.2 4.3 9.2 7.6 4.8 10.5 8.5 7.7 0.9 3.6 -1.6 0.7 -2.3 14.7 0.4

95.9 6.6 9.6 4 86.3 6.9 9.9 16.7 21.7 3.6 3.6 15.6 2.5 2.2 1.2 4.9 12.5 8.2 7.5 11.1 6 8.7 13.1 3.8 7.7 0.7 0 15.1 2.4

101.5 5.9 9.9 3.6 91.6 6.1 10.7 8.8 22.9 5.6 3.9 16.3 2.7 2.2 -2.3 5.4 11.1 8.9 9.5 12 7.6 9.2 6.3 4 5.2 0.7 0 15.4 2.3

106.1 4.5 9.9 -0.7 96.3 5.1 12.6 17 23.4 1.9 4.2 16.4 2.7 2.1 -1.9 5.8 6 9.3 4.1 12.7 5.8 9.7 4.8 4.1 1.9 0.7 0 16 3.6

106.8 0.6 9.6 -3 97.2 1 11.6 -7.6 23.8 1.8 4.4 16.4 2.9 2 -7.2 6 3.6 8.5 -8.2 13.3 4.8 10.6 9.5 4.3 4.7 0.7 0 16.5 2.9

103 -3.5 8.3 -13.2 94.7 -2.6 9.7 -16.1 22.7 -4.3 4.1 15.7 2.9 1.9 -3.9 5.9 -0.2 8.2 -4.4 13.9 4.7 10.4 -2.1 4.3 -0.1 0.7 1.1 16.9 2.6

98.4 -4.4 6.9 -16.8 91.5 -3.3 8.9 -8.7 21.3 -6.3 4.1 14.5 2.7 1.8 -6.6 5.5 -7.9 7.7 -6 14.3 2.5 10.1 -3 4.3 0.3 0.7 -1.1 17 1.1

96.1 -2.4 6.6 -4.1 89.4 -2.3 8 -9.7 20.9 -2 4 14.3 2.6 1.7 -2.8 4.8 -11.9 7.6 -1.3 14.4 1.1 9.9 -1.4 4.4 1.6 0.7 5.2 16.9 -0.7

96.9 0.8 6.9 3.5 90 0.6 8 -0.1 21.2 1.5 4.1 14.4 2.7 1.8 3.5 4.8 -0.1 7.5 -1.2 14.7 1.8 10 0.9 4.5 1.8 0.7 -4.6 16.8 -0.5

99.7 2.9 7.2 4.6 92.5 2.7 8.6 6.7 22 3.9 4.2 14.8 2.9 1.8 3 5 2.8 7.6 1 15.1 2.6 10.2 1.7 4.5 1.2 0.7 -0.5 17.1 1.4

103.2 3.6 7.4 3 95.8 3.6 9.3 9.1 22.8 3.3 4.4 15.3 3 1.9 2.6 5.1 2.3 8 5.6 15.4 2.1 10.5 3.2 4.6 1.3 0.7 0.2 17.6 3.1

4765.6 272.7 2.7 111.7 2.2 5.9 5741 5258 484

5167.2 281.3 3.1 114.3 2.3 5.4 6723 5985 738

5513 292.2 3.9 118.9 4 4.6 5087 4998 88

6071.6 304.3 4.1 125.8 5.8 3.8 7169 6614 555

6580.6 316.2 3.9 132.2 5.1 3.4 7218 6862 357

6503.1 325.9 3.1 136.3 3.1 4.5 3117 2803 314

6351.4 331.9 1.8 139.1 2.1 7.7 1275 1256 19

6094 337.1 1.5 139.8 0.5 12.8 403 387 16

6045.7 338.9 0.6 140 0.1 14.7 775 748 28

6179.6 343.9 1.5 142 1.5 13.6 2652 2575 77

6445.1 351.8 2.3 144.5 1.8 11.7 3932 3822 110

6718.7 361.1 2.7 147.4 2 10.1 4282 4123 159

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O r l a n d o – Ki s s i m m ee

P r o fi l e s The Orlando–Kissimmee MSA is comprised of Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole counties. Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World and numerous other Disney enterprises, Universal Studios, and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic, the Orlando Predators arena football team, and Atlanta Braves spring training at Disney’s Wide World of Sports. The University of Central Florida, the nation’s seventh-largest university, and many other places of higher education also reside in the MSA. Quick Facts:

• Metro population estimate of 2,054,574 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Lake County population estimate of 307,243 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Orange County population estimate of 1,072,801 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Osceola County population estimate of 263,676 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Seminole County population estimate of 410,854 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• A civilian labor force for the MSA of 1,110,673 in April 2009 (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• An unemployment rate of 9.7% as of April 2009, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 107,808 unemployed people in the Orlando MSA. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• Walt Disney Co. – 62,200 employees

• Orange County Public Schools – 23,228 employees 64

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

• Florida Hospital (Adventist Health System) – 16,002 employees • Publix Super Markets Inc. – 15,606 employees

• Universal Orlando – 13,000 employees

• Orlando Regional Healthcare System – 10,000 employees

• Seminole County Public Schools – 9,984 employees • University of Central Florida – 9,537 employees

• Orange County Government – 7,426 employees

• Lockheed Martin Corporation – 7,200 employees

Source: Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission and Orlando Business Journal

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Orlando–Kissimmee area is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to be the second highest in the state, growing at a rate of 5.9 percent. The per capita income level is expected to be 29.9. Average annual wage growth will be 2.7 percent, and average annual wage will be at a level of 44.8. The Orlando MSA will see population growth of 1.2 percent, one of the highest in the state. Gross Metro Product is expected to be one of the highest in the state, averaging 89,137.13 (Mill).

Employment growth is forecasted to average 2.6 percent annually, the highest in the state. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 10.3 percent.

In the Orlando area, the fastest growing sector is expected to be Professional & Business Services with an average annual growth rate of 7.1 percent. This will be followed by Manufacturing and Education and Health Services, with average annual growth rates of 2.7 and 2.5 percent, respectively. The only sector that will experience negative growth is the Federal Government sector, with an average annual rate of growth of -0.1 percent.

O r l a n d o – Ki s s i m m ee

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Orlando hotel occupancy hits 80.4% • According to Smith Travel Research, Orlando hotel occupancy hit 80.4% New Year’s week, a figure that is considered relatively high. • The numbers were 2% higher than New Year’s week the previous year, showing evidence of the city’s slow climb out of a very severe recession. • Revenue per available room, a crucial figure in gauging the hotel industry’s health, continued its downward slide, down 4.6% from last year. Source: Orlando Business Journal, January 15, 2010 Orlando one of top destinations • Hotelscombined.com ranked Orlando number 4 out of the top 10 destinations for domestic travelers in 2010. • The city was edged out by New York City, Las Vegas, and Miami Beach. • The study also compared average room rates, and of the top destinations, Orlando was the least expensive, at $90 a night. Source: Orlando Business Journal, February 11, 2010 Who are region’s biggest losers in housing freefall? • Investor-funded developments in Central Florida took the biggest hit from the housing market crash, in a region where housing prices fell 50% in just two years.

Orlando gas prices on the rise • Orlando gas prices rose eight cents in the course of a week as a result of a significant rise in the price of crude oil. • AAA Auto Club South argues that the rise in crude oil prices can be traced to a higher than average national growth rate; a factor that has led consumers to perceive an upward sloping economy. • AAA spokeswoman Jessica Brady forecasted the future of gas prices, stating that “prices will likely continue their upward trend, but the state of Chile’s oil refineries, which have shut down because of power outages, could lead to higher than expected prices.” Source: Orlando Business Journal, March 1, 2010 UCF rally: Students to protest budget cuts • Students at the University of Central Florida plan to rally in protest of state budget cuts to public education, an effort they hope will catch the attention of legislators. • Taking place on March 4, the effort is part of a larger California-based movement entitled “National Day of Action to Defend Education.” • Sophomore Fedorah Philippeaux had an optimistic attitude about the rally. “We’re thinking this is going to be big, it’s a chance for students’ voices to be heard,” she commented. Source: Orlando Sentinel, March 2, 2010

• Developments saw average sales prices of $312,000 cascade to $62,000; a decline of 80% in the course of a year. • County appraisers claim that heavy investor involvement drove such properties prices artificially high. When the housing bubble burst, the inflated properties had farther to fall then many residences. Source: Orlando Sentinel, February 23, 2010 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O r l a n d o – Ki s s i m m ee

Orlando - Kissimee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

1.4

1.6

100000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

70000.0 60000.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

50000.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Orlando Real Personal Income 15.0%

(percent change year ago)

12.0% 9.0% 6.0%

1000.0

3.0% 0.0%

900.0

1.2

80000.0

1100.0

800.0

Orlando Real Gross Metro Product

Orlando Payroll Employment 1200.0

0.8

90000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.4

-3.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 OrlandoPayroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

-6.0%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income

O r l a n d o â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Ki s s i m m ee

Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL* March 2010 Forecast

2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 Personal Income (Billions $)

71 -1.2 43.3 27.8 57.9 -2.4 33.8 27.5 42.3 1.5

72.7 3.7 43.6 29.1 58.9 1.6 34.7 28.2 42.7 4.1

73.5 4.8 44 29.5 59.6 3 35.2 28.6 43 3.7

74.6 6.1 44.5 30.1 60.2 4.6 35.7 28.8 43.5 3.7

75.4 6.2 44.9 30.5 60.7 5 36 29 43.7 3.4

76.4 5.1 45.5 30.9 61.3 3.9 36.4 29.2 44 3

77.2 5 46 31.2 61.7 3.4 36.7 29.3 44.2 2.6

78.2 4.8 46.5 31.6 62.2 3.2 37 29.5 44.4 2.1

79.3 5.2 47.2 32.1 62.9 3.5 37.4 29.7 44.6 1.9

80.7 5.6 48 32.6 63.7 3.9 37.9 29.9 44.8 2

82 6.2 48.8 33.2 64.5 4.6 38.3 30.2 45.1 2

83.4 6.7 49.7 33.7 65.3 5.1 38.8 30.4 45.3 2.1

84.8 6.8 50.6 34.2 66.2 5.3 39.2 30.6 45.6 2.2

86.3 7 51.6 34.7 67.1 5.4 39.7 30.9 45.9 2.4

87.9 7.2 52.5 35.3 68.1 5.5 40.2 31.2 46.3 2.7

1023.4 0.5 39.5 0.6 983.9 0.5 52.2 -6.9 188 -0.3 45.1 111.5 30.7 24.2 -1.9 64.2 -1.4 169.3 5.6 119.6 0.4 197.1 0.6 51.9 1.5 11.8 2.3 105.6 -1.1

1029.5 1.3 39.9 2.2 989.6 1.3 52.6 -3.6 188.3 0.2 45.4 111 31.1 24.5 0.3 64.2 -0.9 173.5 7.4 119.6 0.7 197.4 0.9 52.2 1.8 11.7 -0.5 105.6 -0.7

1036.2 1.8 40.5 3.6 995.7 1.7 53.1 -0.5 189.4 0.9 45.9 110.9 31.5 24.9 4.6 64.3 -0.7 176.1 7.5 120.5 1.2 198 1.2 52.4 2 11.6 -12.4 105.5 -0.5

1045 2.5 41.1 4.9 1003.9 2.4 53.9 3.1 191.3 1.9 46.8 111.4 32 25 4.7 64.7 0.2 179.5 8.2 121.9 2.1 197.9 0.4 52.6 1.7 11.6 -6.5 105.6 -0.2

1055.9 3.2 41.7 5.5 1014.2 3.1 54.8 4.9 193.4 2.9 47.3 112.6 32.4 25.1 3.7 65.3 1.6 184.6 9 123.1 2.9 197.8 0.4 52.8 1.8 11.6 -2.1 105.8 0.2

1067.3 3.7 42.3 5.9 1025 3.6 55.8 6.2 195.5 3.8 47.9 113.4 32.9 25.3 3.3 65.8 2.5 188.6 8.7 124.5 4.1 198.7 0.7 53 1.5 11.6 -1.3 106.2 0.5

1079.3 4.2 42.7 5.4 1036.6 4.1 57 7.4 197.6 4.3 48.5 114.4 33.4 25.5 2.5 66.3 3.2 192.5 9.3 125.7 4.4 200.3 1.2 53.1 1.5 11.5 -0.8 107 1.4

1092.2 4.5 43.2 5.2 1049 4.5 58.2 8.1 199.3 4.2 49 115.1 33.8 25.6 2.4 66.9 3.3 196.9 9.7 127.2 4.4 202.2 2.2 53.4 1.5 11.5 -0.5 107.8 2

1105.8 4.7 43.7 4.7 1062.2 4.7 59.5 8.6 201.2 4 49.6 116 34.2 25.8 2.7 67.4 3.3 201.8 9.4 128.4 4.3 204.3 3.3 53.7 1.6 11.5 -0.3 108.6 2.7

1119.1 4.9 44.1 4.3 1075 4.9 61 9.3 202.9 3.8 50.2 116.7 34.5 26 2.5 67.7 2.9 207 9.8 129.2 3.8 206.2 3.8 53.9 1.8 11.5 -0.2 109.5 3.2

1131.9 4.9 44.5 4.1 1087.5 4.9 62.7 9.9 204.6 3.6 50.7 117.6 34.9 26.2 2.5 68 2.5 211.8 10.1 130.2 3.5 207.9 3.8 54.2 1.9 11.5 -0.1 110.5 3.3

90338 91580.5 92880.3 93920.6 2139.5 2150.1 2161.2 2172.9 1.7 1.9 2 2 1135.1 1141.1 1147.4 1154.2 1.8 2 2.1 2.2 9.8 9.3 8.9 8.5 21578 22964 23871 24463 18502 19391 19738 19942 3076 3573 4133 4521

94998 2185 2.1 1161.1 2.3 8.2 25087 20268 4819

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1018.5 -4 39.3 -7.1 979.3 -3.8 56.1 -17.3 188.6 -3.9 45.1 111.4 32.1 24.7 -4.6 65.2 -2.7 160.3 -7.3 119.1 0.4 195.9 -1.2 51.1 -2.7 11.6 -2.2 106.8 -0.4

1016.2 -2.5 39.1 -5.8 977.1 -2.3 54.6 -16.3 188 -3.5 45 111.4 31 24.5 -3.8 64.8 -2.4 161.6 -3.7 118.8 0.1 195.5 1.7 51.3 0.7 11.8 -0.2 106.4 -0.8

1017.7 -0.9 39.1 -3 978.6 -0.9 53.4 -12.7 187.7 -2.6 45.2 111.1 30.7 23.8 -5.1 64.7 -1 163.8 0.4 119.1 0.2 195.6 1.5 51.3 1.4 13.3 14.2 106 0

1019.8 0 39.2 -1.3 980.7 0.1 52.2 -11.2 187.7 -1.2 45 111.5 30.5 23.9 -4.2 64.6 0.2 165.9 3 119.4 1.1 197.1 1.4 51.7 2.2 12.4 7.4 105.8 -0.3

82495.5 82984.8 83315.4 83815.9 84407.1 85136.7 85790.4 86769.8 87934.4 89115.9 2101 2091.1 2088.8 2090.1 2094.7 2099.7 2104.5 2111 2119.8 2129.3 1.1 0.4 0 -0.2 -0.3 0.4 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1113.1 1107.1 1106.1 1106.8 1109.4 1112.5 1115.1 1118.8 1123.8 1129.5 -1.2 -1.1 -1 -0.1 -0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.5 12 12.2 12.4 12.4 12.2 11.9 11.5 11.1 10.7 10.2 4500 4123 4829 6467 9189 11798 14359 16754 18752 20065 4367 3783 4587 6187 8403 10609 12753 14650 16033 17196 133 340 241 280 786 1189 1605 2104 2720 2869

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

O r l a n d o â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Ki s s i m m ee

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL March 2010 Forecast

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

49.4 4.9 31 18.4 47.9 3.5 28 27.1 34 4.6

52.6 6.5 33.2 19.5 49.9 4.3 29 27.5 35.6 4.6

57.6 9.4 36.4 21.2 53.2 6.6 30.6 28.3 37.1 4.2

63.4 10 40.1 23.3 56.9 6.9 32.5 29.2 38.7 4.3

69.1 9.1 43.2 25.9 60.4 6.2 34.5 30.1 40.2 3.8

71.5 3.5 44.9 26.6 60.9 0.8 35.1 29.8 40.9 1.8

72.3 1 44.8 27.5 59.5 -2.2 34.9 28.8 41.4 1.3

70.4 -2.6 43 27.4 57.8 -2.8 33.6 27.6 41.7 0.7

74 5.2 44.2 29.8 59.9 3.6 35.4 28.6 43.2 3.7

77.8 5 46.3 31.5 62 3.5 36.9 29.4 44.3 2.4

82.7 6.3 49.3 33.4 64.9 4.7 38.6 30.3 45.2 2.1

88.6 7.2 53 35.6 68.6 5.6 40.4 31.3 46.4 2.7

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

908.4 -1.1 45.4 -7.6 863 -0.7 61.4 1.9 171.6 -3.8 39.6 104.8 27.3 22.5 -2.1 54.7 0.9 152.3 -3 89.4 2.6 165 -3.4 45.4 6.8 10.4 1 90.2 5.6

928.1 2.2 43.2 -4.9 884.9 2.5 66 7.4 173.4 1 40 107.4 25.9 23.1 2.5 57.4 4.8 152.2 -0.1 93.6 4.7 169.9 3 45.7 0.7 11.1 7 92.6 2.6

976.5 5.2 44.1 2.2 932.4 5.4 74.2 12.5 181.7 4.8 42 113.5 26.2 23.8 3.1 59.5 3.7 162.4 6.7 97.3 4 179.4 5.6 47.5 4 11.2 1.2 95.4 3

1032.4 5.7 45.3 2.7 987.1 5.9 84.4 13.7 192.8 6.1 44.7 120.1 28 24.7 3.9 63.7 7.1 175.4 8 102.2 5 183.6 2.4 49.9 4.9 11.8 5.2 98.7 3.5

1071.3 3.8 44.5 -1.9 1026.8 4 91.2 8 198.8 3.1 46.2 122.4 30.3 25.8 4.5 67 5.2 182.1 3.9 107.5 5.2 186.9 1.8 53.4 7.1 11.4 -3.5 102.7 4.1

1094.8 2.2 44.1 -0.8 1050.7 2.3 85.4 -6.4 204 2.6 47.3 123.7 33 26.8 3.7 67.8 1.1 187 2.6 112.7 4.8 193.6 3.6 55.8 4.5 11.5 0.4 106.2 3.4

1078.4 -1.5 42.7 -3.1 1035.7 -1.4 73 -14.5 201.1 -1.4 46.7 121.3 33.1 26.2 -2.1 67 -1.1 179.9 -3.8 117.3 4.1 200.2 3.4 53 -5 11.7 2.1 106.2 0

1026.9 -4.8 40.2 -6 986.7 -4.7 60.3 -17.4 191.5 -4.8 45.6 113.6 32.2 25 -4.6 65.4 -2.5 163.1 -9.4 118.7 1.2 193.8 -3.2 50.8 -4.2 11.6 -0.6 106.6 0.3

1019.3 -0.7 39.2 -2.4 980.1 -0.7 53.1 -12 187.8 -1.9 45.1 111.4 30.7 24.1 -3.8 64.6 -1.2 165.1 1.3 119.2 0.5 196.3 1.3 51.5 1.5 12.3 5.9 106 -0.6

1041.7 2.2 40.8 4.1 1000.9 2.1 53.6 0.9 190.6 1.5 46.3 111.5 31.8 24.9 3.3 64.6 0 178.4 8 121.3 1.7 197.8 0.7 52.5 1.8 11.6 -5.6 105.6 -0.3

1086.2 4.3 43 5.3 1043.2 4.2 57.7 7.6 198.4 4.1 48.7 114.7 33.6 25.6 2.7 66.6 3.1 195 9.3 126.4 4.3 201.4 1.8 53.3 1.5 11.5 -0.7 107.4 1.6

1137.7 4.7 44.6 3.7 1093.1 4.8 63.4 9.9 205.3 3.5 50.9 118 35.1 26.2 2.5 68.2 2.4 214 9.8 130.7 3.4 208.6 3.6 54.3 1.9 11.5 0 110.9 3.3

66572 1764.2 2.9 918 0.9 5.6 25182 17509 7673

70644 1815 2.9 934 1.7 5.1 27607 22318 5289

75050 1880 3.6 963.3 3.1 4.4 32400 26196 6204

81630 1950.4 3.7 1007.7 4.6 3.5 33906 26872 7034

85715 2004.7 2.8 1048.9 4.1 3.1 30304 24310 5994

87009 2040.4 1.8 1091.6 4.1 3.8 18000 12536 5464

87021 2068.1 1.4 1119.9 2.6 5.9 10572 5736 4837

83763 2092.3 1.2 1114.3 -0.5 10.8 4724 3823 901

83631 2091.2 -0.1 1107.3 -0.6 12.3 6152 5740 412

86408 2108.8 0.8 1117.5 0.9 11.3 15416 13511 1904

90979 2145 1.7 1138.3 1.9 9.5 22119 18707 3413

95531 2191.4 2.2 1165 2.4 8.1 25240 20444 4796

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

P a l m B a y – Me l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e

P r o fi l e s The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is comprised of Brevard County only. Typically known as “Florida’s Space Coast,” this area is home to the Kennedy Space Center. Located in the central part of Florida’s east coast, the region is home to Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, Patrick Air Force Base, and government contractors such as Harris Corporation. Like much of Florida, this area is growing fast; Port Canaveral is now a leading cruise-ship port. Quick Facts:

• Population estimate of 536,521 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 256,092 in April 2009 (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• An unemployment rate of 9.8% as of April 2009, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 26,067 unemployed people. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• Harris Corporation – 6,700 employees • Health First, Inc. – 6,420 employees

• United Space Alliance – 5,890 employees

• Wuesthoff Health System – 2,430 employees • Space Gateway Support – 1,760 employees • Northrop Grumman Corporation – 1,640 employees • Rockwell Collins, Inc. – 1,430 employees • Sea Ray Boats, Inc. – 1,160 employees

• Parrish Medical Center – 1,040 employees • The Boeing Company – 1,010 employees

Source: Economic Development Commission of Florida’s Space Coast

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is expected to achieve modest growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 4.9 percent each year. Per capita income levels should average 30.8. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.8 percent, while average annual wage levels should be at 47.4. Population growth is expected to be an average of 0.7 percent, and the Gross Metro Product level is expected to be 14,686.30 (Mill).

Employment growth is forecasted to average 0.8 percent each year. The metro will be seeing an average unemployment rate of 10.6 percent.

Manufacturing is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 2.6 percent growth annually. Education and Health Services and Information follow with average growth rates of 1.5 percent each. The Federal Government and the Professional & Business Services sectors are the only sectors that will experience declines, with annual growth rates of -0.2 percent and -0.5 percent respectively.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Cocoa eyes pension expenses tonight • The Cocoa City Council will hold a meeting to discuss reducing the cost to taxpayers of firefighter and police officer pensions. • With the slumping economy, the bonds, stocks, and other investment accounts that ordinarily would comprise a large portion of the retirement fund have reduced their return significantly. • The difference between how much is promised by the pension plan and how much money is actually reserved for the plan is the burden on the taxpayers. • As of October 1, there was an estimated $13.5 million pension plan shortfall. Source: Florida Today, January 26, 2010 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P a l m B a y – Me l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e

Brevard courtrooms face budget crunch

Panel to examine space budget impact

• Brevard court officials are looking for ways to lessen the impact of a significant budget shortfall anticipated for 2010.

• Brevard Community College will host an open forum to discuss the impact that the federal budget will have on the Space Coast.

• The potentially underfunded segments include court reporters, expert witnesses, and appeal transcripts—aspects of the judicial system that state courts administrator Lisa Goodner argues “are costs necessary to ensure a fair trial.”

• Guests such as Winston Scott, dean of the College of Aeronautics at Florida Tech, and Marsh Heard, space advisor for the Economic Development Commission of Florida’s Space Coast, are expected to contribute to discussion.

• The combination of increased caseloads, the wounded economy, and a general lack of funding from the state legislature have been the main catalysts in the budget crisis.

• Bob Stover, editor of Florida Today, expressed his satisfaction with the upcoming discussion, remarking, “We are proud to help lead the community conversation because such a public airing of the issues will help us find the best way through this tough period.”

Source: Florida Today, February 4, 2010 Despite tough times, United Way surpasses $6.7M goal • The United Way of Brevard has broken their fundraising record for the third year in a row, an impressive accomplishment in an economy where charities have seen an overall decline in donation dollars. • Rob Rains, President of the United Way, was inspired by this year’s numbers. “People faced uncertainty, yet knew that many others were worse off and still gave and many increased their giving,” he commented. • Roughly 250,000 individuals and their families benefit from the United Way every year. The organization sponsors 76 health and human service programs as well as 46 nonprofit agencies in Brevard County. Source: Florida Today, February 12, 2010

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

Source: Florida Today, March 1, 2010 Business ‘survivors’ expressing optimism • New York based consulting firm CIT Group Incorporated surveyed 220 small business owners and found that those who have survived the past 18 months have emerged emboldened and optimistic about the future. • Jessica Ziarno, owner of Tony’s Total Hair Salon in Melbourne, claimed that she has learned valuable business lessons from the “University of Recession.” • President of CIT Chris Reilly explained optimism like Melbourne business owner Jessica Ziarno’s, stating “Many believe that the survival strategies they’ve implemented and hard lessons they’ve learned have better positioned them for growth this year.” Source: Florida Today, February 27, 2010

P a l m B a y – Me l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.5

1.5

Florida & Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Unemployment Rate 14.0%

16000.0 14000.0

8.0%

13000.0

6.0%

12000.0

4.0% 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Palm Bay Unemployment Rate

11000.0 10000.0

(Thousands)

210.0 200.0 190.0 180.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Palm Bay Payroll Employment

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Personal Income

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Payroll Employment 220.0

(Millions 2000 $)

15000.0

10.0%

2.0%

2.5

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Gross Metro Product

(percent)

12.0%

15.0% 12.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% -3.0% -6.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P a l m B a y – Me l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL* March 2010 Forecast

2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 Personal Income (Billions $)

19 -0.4 8.9 10.1 15.5 -1.6 35.3 28.7 44.6 1.5

19.5 4.2 8.9 10.6 15.9 2.1 36.2 29.4 45.1 4.4

19.8 4.9 9 10.7 16 3.1 36.6 29.7 45.5 3.9

20 6 9.1 10.9 16.2 4.5 37 29.9 45.9 3.9

20.2 5.9 9.1 11.1 16.2 4.7 37.3 30 46.2 3.4

20.4 4.3 9.2 11.2 16.4 3.2 37.7 30.2 46.4 3

20.5 4 9.2 11.3 16.4 2.5 37.9 30.3 46.7 2.6

20.7 3.8 9.3 11.4 16.5 2.2 38.2 30.4 46.9 2.1

21 4.1 9.4 11.6 16.6 2.4 38.5 30.5 47.1 2.1

21.3 4.3 9.5 11.8 16.8 2.6 38.9 30.7 47.4 2.1

21.5 4.8 9.6 11.9 16.9 3.2 39.4 31 47.6 2.1

21.8 5.2 9.7 12.1 17.1 3.6 39.8 31.2 47.9 2.2

22.1 5.2 9.8 12.2 17.2 3.7 40.2 31.4 48.2 2.3

22.4 5.3 10 12.4 17.4 3.8 40.6 31.6 48.6 2.5

22.7 5.2 10.1 12.5 17.6 3.6 41 31.7 48.9 2.7

194.2 -1.1 21.9 0.6 172.3 -1.3 9.9 -8.2 33.9 -0.4 5.8 25.3 2.8 2.8 -1.7 7 -2.2 31.6 -3.1 31.1 0.9 19.8 -0.3 8.1 0.7 6.3 1.1 21.7 -1.7

194.4 -0.6 22.1 2 172.3 -0.9 9.9 -4.9 33.9 -0.1 5.8 25.2 2.8 2.9 0.5 7 -1.3 31.7 -2.8 31.1 0.6 19.8 0.3 8.1 0.9 6.3 0.1 21.7 -1.4

194.7 -0.3 22.4 3.3 172.4 -0.8 10 -1.8 34 0.3 5.9 25.1 2.8 2.9 4.8 7 -0.9 31.3 -2.4 31.3 0.9 19.9 0.5 8.2 1.1 6.2 -11.3 21.6 -1.2

195.6 0.5 22.6 4.4 172.9 0 10.1 1.8 34.2 0.9 6 25.2 2.9 2.9 4.9 7 -0.1 31.3 -1.7 31.6 1.6 19.8 -0.3 8.2 0.6 6.2 -6.3 21.6 -0.8

196.5 1.1 23 4.8 173.5 0.7 10.3 3.8 34.5 1.7 6 25.4 2.9 2.9 3.8 7.1 1.3 31.3 -1.1 31.7 2 19.8 -0.4 8.2 0.7 6.2 -2.7 21.6 -0.3

197.2 1.4 23.3 5.4 173.9 0.9 10.4 5.2 34.7 2.5 6.1 25.5 3 3 3.4 7.1 1.9 31.1 -1.9 31.8 2.3 19.8 -0.3 8.2 0.3 6.1 -2.2 21.7 0

198.4 1.9 23.5 5.1 174.9 1.5 10.6 6.3 35 3.2 6.2 25.7 3 3 2.6 7.1 2.5 31.1 -0.7 32 2.1 19.9 0.1 8.2 0.2 6.1 -1.6 21.8 0.8

199.9 2.2 23.8 5 176.1 1.9 10.8 7 35.3 3.2 6.2 25.8 3 3 2.5 7.2 2.7 31.4 0.4 32.1 1.8 20 1.1 8.2 0.2 6.1 -1.2 21.9 1.4

201.4 2.5 24 4.6 177.4 2.3 11 7.3 35.5 3 6.3 25.9 3.1 3 2.7 7.2 2.7 31.8 1.8 32.3 1.6 20.2 2.1 8.2 0.3 6.1 -0.9 22.1 2

202.9 2.9 24.3 4.3 178.6 2.7 11.3 8.3 35.7 2.8 6.4 26 3.1 3 2.4 7.3 2.4 32.3 3.8 32.3 1.6 20.3 2.4 8.2 0.4 6.1 -0.7 22.2 2.4

204.4 3 24.5 4.1 180 2.9 11.6 8.8 36 2.6 6.5 26.2 3.1 3 2.3 7.3 1.9 32.6 4.7 32.4 1.5 20.4 2.3 8.2 0.5 6.1 -0.8 22.4 2.6

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

196.4 -3.2 21.8 -6.1 174.6 -2.8 10.8 -13 34.1 -1.1 5.7 25.5 2.9 2.9 1.4 7.1 -8.4 32.6 -4.2 30.8 1.2 19.9 -4.7 8.1 -0.5 6.3 3.3 22.1 -2.6

195.5 -2.8 21.6 -5.1 173.9 -2.6 10.4 -14.7 33.9 -0.8 5.7 25.4 2.8 2.8 -1.1 7 -5.7 32.6 -3.7 30.9 1.1 19.8 -3.6 8.1 0.9 6.3 3.6 22 -2.9

195.4 -2 21.7 -2.9 173.8 -1.8 10.2 -13.2 33.9 -0.6 5.8 25.3 2.8 2.8 -4.5 7 -4.4 32.1 -5.5 31 1.7 19.8 -1.3 8.1 -0.6 7 15.5 21.9 -1.6

14001.7 14123.5 14121.5 14151.3 540.3 539.7 539.6 540 0.1 0 0 0 265.4 265 265 265.3 -1 -1 -0.9 0.5 12.1 12.5 12.6 12.6 1081 954 1075 1431 1028 820 978 1338 53 133 96 94

*Quarterly at an annual rate

194.7 -1.4 21.7 -0.9 173 -1.4 9.9 -12.2 33.9 -0.8 5.7 25.4 2.7 2.8 -3.1 7 -2.7 31.8 -3.4 31.1 1.6 19.9 0.3 8.1 0.4 6.6 8.1 21.8 -2.2

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

14182 14241.3 14297.3 14405.9 14524.8 14635.9 14778.1 14929.5 15086.8 15201.4 15322.9 540.6 541.3 542.2 543.1 544.5 545.8 547 548.3 549.8 551.4 553.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1 1 1.1 265.7 266 266.2 266.6 267.1 268 268.8 269.6 270.6 271.7 272.9 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 12.3 12 11.6 11.3 10.9 10.5 10 9.5 9.2 8.8 8.5 2085 2721 3340 3922 4439 4672 4968 5260 5429 5514 5640 1901 2483 3057 3596 4044 4267 4550 4768 4843 4868 4944 184 237 283 326 395 406 417 491 585 646 696

P a l m B a y – Me l b o u r n e – T itu s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL March 2010 Forecast

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

14.2 4.7 7 7.2 13.8 3.3 28.6 27.7 35.6 3.7

15.1 6 7.5 7.5 14.3 3.8 29.8 28.2 37.5 5.4

16.3 7.9 8.2 8 15 5.2 31.3 29 39.3 4.7

17.5 7.6 8.9 8.6 15.7 4.5 33.1 29.7 41 4.5

18.8 7.7 9.4 9.5 16.5 4.8 35.3 30.8 42.5 3.7

19.2 2.1 9.5 9.8 16.4 -0.6 35.8 30.4 43.6 2.5

19.3 0.3 9.2 10.1 15.9 -2.9 35.8 29.5 43.8 0.5

18.9 -2.2 8.9 10 15.5 -2.3 35 28.7 43.9 0.3

19.9 5.2 9 10.8 16.1 3.6 36.8 29.8 45.7 3.9

20.7 4 9.3 11.4 16.5 2.5 38.1 30.4 46.8 2.4

21.7 4.9 9.7 12 17 3.3 39.6 31.1 47.8 2.2

22.8 5.3 10.2 12.6 17.6 3.7 41.2 31.8 49.1 2.8

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

193.8 -0.4 22.9 -3.9 170.9 0.1 12.7 -3.1 34.7 -0.1 4.8 26.6 3.3 2.8 -10.8 7.3 3.4 33.4 -2.2 25.3 3.5 19.9 0.1 7.6 1 5.7 -1.8 21.6 2.9

197.9 2.1 22.8 -0.5 175.1 2.4 13 2.3 34.2 -1.6 4.6 26.3 3.3 2.8 0 7.3 0.7 34.7 4.1 26.7 5.7 20.2 1.7 8.2 8.4 5.7 1.2 22.1 2.6

206.6 4.4 23.6 3.8 183 4.5 14.8 13.6 35.5 3.7 4.7 27.2 3.6 2.8 -0.9 7.8 5.8 37.1 6.8 26.8 0.3 21.1 4.4 8.4 1.6 5.9 3.9 22.9 3.3

213.8 3.5 23.9 1.2 189.8 3.7 17.2 16.2 37.1 4.5 5.2 28 3.8 2.9 6 8.4 7.8 38.7 4.5 27.3 1.8 21.8 3.3 8.1 -2.8 6.1 1.8 22.2 -2.8

217.4 1.7 24.6 2.7 192.9 1.6 18.1 5 37.4 1 5.5 28.3 3.6 2.9 0.1 8.6 2.4 38.4 -1 28.2 3.1 22.5 3.3 8.1 -0.7 6.2 1.7 22.6 1.7

213.8 -1.7 24.1 -1.8 189.7 -1.6 15.4 -15 36.9 -1.5 5.6 28 3.3 2.9 -2.6 8.6 0.3 36.9 -3.9 29.3 4 22.9 1.5 8 -1 6.2 0.5 22.8 1.1

207.5 -3 23.7 -1.8 183.8 -3.1 13.1 -14.9 35.5 -3.7 5.7 26.8 3.1 2.8 -0.3 8.2 -5.2 35 -5.2 30.5 4.3 21.7 -5 8.1 1.2 6.2 0 22.8 -0.3

198.6 -4.3 22.2 -6.3 176.4 -4 11.5 -11.9 34.1 -3.9 5.8 25.4 2.9 2.9 1.2 7.3 -10.7 33.4 -4.6 30.6 0.3 20.1 -7.5 8.1 -0.3 6.1 -0.9 22.3 -2

195 -1.8 21.7 -2.1 173.2 -1.8 10.1 -12.2 33.9 -0.7 5.7 25.4 2.8 2.8 -2.6 7 -3.8 32 -4 31 1.3 19.8 -1.3 8.1 0.3 6.6 7 21.8 -2.1

195.3 0.2 22.5 3.6 172.8 -0.3 10.1 -0.3 34.1 0.7 5.9 25.2 2.9 2.9 3.5 7 -0.3 31.4 -2 31.4 1.3 19.8 0 8.2 0.8 6.2 -5.3 21.6 -0.9

199.2 2 23.6 5 175.6 1.6 10.7 6.5 35.1 3 6.2 25.7 3 3 2.8 7.2 2.4 31.4 -0.1 32 2 20 0.7 8.2 0.2 6.1 -1.5 21.9 1.1

204.9 2.8 24.5 3.7 180.4 2.7 11.7 8.8 36 2.6 6.5 26.3 3.1 3 2.3 7.3 1.8 32.7 4.2 32.5 1.4 20.4 2.1 8.2 0.5 6.1 -0.8 22.4 2.6

12105 496.2 1.8 238.2 1.1 5.7 6591 5091 1500

12830 506.2 2 242 1.6 5.2 6115 5578 537

13908 518.9 2.5 247.6 2.3 4.4 8212 6313 1899

14985 528.7 1.9 256.2 3.5 3.6 8487 7206 1281

15522 533.5 0.9 261.8 2.2 3.3 5346 4370 977

15419 537.4 0.7 263.9 0.8 4.3 2815 2209 606

15556 539.3 0.3 267.8 1.5 6.5 1789 1292 496

14890 540 0.1 266.1 -0.6 10.8 994 870 123

14145 540 0 265.2 -0.3 12.5 1386 1259 127

14367 542.8 0.5 266.4 0.5 11.5 3606 3295 310

14858 547.7 0.9 269.2 1.1 9.8 5082 4607 475

15376 554.1 1.2 273.6 1.6 8.4 5675 4982 693

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

P r o fi l e s The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is comprised of Escambia County and Santa Rosa County. Located in the northwest corner of the state bordering Alabama, this region is home to the Pensacola Naval Air Station, Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval Aviation. This area has been referred to as the “Cradle of Naval Aviation.” Quick Facts:

• Metro population estimate of 452,992 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Escambia County population estimate of 302,939 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Santa Rosa County population estimate of 150,053 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 208,821 in April 2009 (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• An unemployment rate of 8.7% as of April 2009, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 18,185 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• Local Government – 15,790 employees • Federal Government – 7,403 employees • State Government – 5,970 employees • Sacred Heart Health System – 5,000 employees

• Baptist Heath Care – 3,163 employees • Lakeview – 2,000 employees

• Gulf Power Company – 1,400 employees

• Solutia, Inc. – 1,400 employees

• West Florida Hospital – 1,300 employees

• University of West Florida – 1,231 employees Source: Greater Pensacola Chamber of Commerce

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is expected to see low levels of growth in the economic indicators, relative to other metro areas. Personal income growth is expected to average 4.4 percent each year, one of the lowest in the state. The per capita income level, also among the lowest in the state, is expected to be 27.4. The average annual wage growth rate should be at 2.5 percent, tied for lowest in the state. The average annual wage level is expected to be 40.3. Population growth will be at a rate of 0.3 percent, the second lowest in the state, and the Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 11,108.13 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to average 0.5 percent each year, tied for second lowest in the state. The unemployment rate will average 9.5 percent.

Manufacturing will be the fastest growing sector in Pensacola, with 1.5 percent average annual growth. Construction & Mining follows with a growth rate of 1.1 percent. The Financial, Professional & Business Services, and Federal Government sectors are the only sectors experiencing declines, with average annual growth rates of -0.1 percent, -0.3 percent, and -1.3 percent, respectively.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Industry incentives given OK • Santa Rosa County Commission approved thousands of dollars in incentives to help lure prospective new industries to the county. • The incentives will be based on the number of new positions a company is expected to create within five years, as well as the quality of those positions based on average wage. Prospective new industries could see hundreds of dollars for each new job they create. • Funding for the incentives will come from the Santa Rosa County’s economic development fund, which is supported by electricity franchise fees. Source: Pensacola News Journal, February 12, 2010

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Port gets $1.7 million from FEMA • FEMA has allocated nearly $1.7 million in federal grant money to the Port of Pensacola to pay for homeland security upgrades. • The first year’s allotment of the grant money will be used to develop an emergency operations center, to be housed in the City of Pensacola Fire Administration building. • The grant money will also be used for emergency planning, surveillance protection of Energy Services of Pensacola, infrastructure enhancements, and emergency management training for first responders. • The Pensacola Bay Area Chamber of Commerce is in charge of dispersing the FEMA grant money. Source: Pensacola News Journal, February 20, 2010 Stimulus to help build, restore area homes • Pensacola Habitat for Humanity will receive about $24 million from Habitat for Humanity International to build 195 new homes and restore 45 more. Habitat International received $141 million from a program that is part of the American Reinvestment & Recovery Act of 2009. • The nonprofit will target two Census tracks in South Santa Rosa County and eight Census tracks in the western urban core of Pensacola. • Since 1981, the Pensacola chapter has built or restored a total of 656 homes in Escambia and Santa Rosa counties. Source: Pensacola News Journal, March 11, 2010

Schools get $22M from half-cent sales tax • Escambia County School District will receive $22 million worth of unanticipated upgrades and renovations this year as a result of the half-cent sales tax. • The sales tax generates about $20 million each year for school construction and renovation projects. The $22 million was left over from accrued interest and savings from projects that were finished under budget. • Pine Forest High School, one of the greatest beneficiaries, will receive a $1.6 million facility for the Naval Junior Reserve Officer Training Corps, replacing three small portables currently housing the 180-cadet program. Source: Pensacola News Journal, March 12, 2010 Gulf Breeze Hospital eyes $5M expansion • Gulf Breeze Hospital is expanding its capacity by adding 12 new patient rooms and a new inpatient physical therapy and rehabilitation unit to meet growing demand. • Of the 12 new patient rooms, two will be added to the hospital’s intensive care unit and 10 will be added to the annex on the hospital’s east side. The new beds will bring the hospital’s in-patient capacity to 77. • The hospital’s growth has been attributed to increasing demand for its oncologists, among other factors. • The expansion is expected to be completed by the end of the year. Source: Pensacola News Journal, March 13, 2010

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

1.4

1.6

12000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

11500.0

10000.0 9500.0 9000.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Pensacola Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

165.0 160.0 155.0

1.2

10500.0

170.0

150.0

Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product

8500.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Pensacola Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Pensacola Real Personal Income

Pensacola Payroll Employment 175.0

0.8

11000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.4

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL* March 2010 Forecast

2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 Personal Income (Billions $)

14.4 -0.1 6.6 7.8 11.7 -1.3 31.5 25.7 38.3 1.5

14.7 4.1 6.7 8 11.9 2 32.3 26.2 38.7 4.3

14.9 4.6 6.7 8.1 12.1 2.8 32.6 26.5 39 3.7

15 5.3 6.7 8.3 12.1 3.8 33 26.7 39.3 3.6

15.1 5 6.7 8.4 12.2 3.8 33.3 26.8 39.5 3

15.3 3.7 6.8 8.5 12.2 2.6 33.6 26.9 39.7 2.6

15.4 3.4 6.8 8.6 12.3 1.9 33.8 27 39.8 2.2

15.5 3.3 6.9 8.6 12.3 1.6 34.1 27.1 40 1.8

15.7 3.5 6.9 8.8 12.4 1.9 34.4 27.2 40.1 1.7

15.8 3.8 7 8.9 12.5 2.1 34.7 27.4 40.3 1.7

16 4.3 7 9 12.6 2.7 35.1 27.6 40.5 1.7

16.2 4.6 7.1 9.1 12.7 3.1 35.4 27.7 40.7 1.8

16.4 4.7 7.2 9.2 12.8 3.2 35.7 27.9 40.9 1.9

16.6 4.8 7.3 9.3 12.9 3.2 36 28 41.2 2.1

16.8 4.6 7.3 9.4 13 3.1 36.3 28.2 41.4 2.3

158.2 -1.6 5.7 -0.3 152.5 -1.6 10.1 -8.7 31.5 -0.9 6 21 4.5 3.1 -2 8.4 -2.7 18.5 -3.6 28.3 0.7 16.8 -0.3 7.4 0.6 6.5 0.7 22 -2.3

158.1 -1 5.7 1.3 152.4 -1.1 10.1 -5.5 31.5 -0.5 6 20.9 4.5 3.2 0.3 8.3 -1.7 18.5 -3.1 28.3 0.4 16.8 0.3 7.4 0.9 6.4 -0.5 21.9 -2

158.2 -0.9 5.8 2.7 152.5 -1 10.2 -2.4 31.6 0.1 6.1 20.8 4.6 3.2 4.4 8.3 -1.4 18.3 -2.8 28.4 0.7 16.9 0.4 7.4 1 6.3 -11.7 21.8 -1.8

158.7 0 5.8 4 152.9 -0.2 10.3 1.2 31.8 0.9 6.2 20.9 4.6 3.2 4.5 8.4 -0.6 18.2 -2 28.6 1.3 16.8 -0.4 7.4 0.6 6.3 -6.5 21.8 -1.4

159.3 0.7 5.9 4.5 153.4 0.6 10.4 3.2 32.1 1.8 6.3 21 4.7 3.2 3.4 8.4 0.8 18.2 -1.3 28.8 1.7 16.8 -0.5 7.4 0.7 6.3 -3.1 21.8 -0.9

159.7 1 6 4.9 153.7 0.9 10.6 4.5 32.3 2.6 6.3 21.1 4.8 3.3 3 8.5 1.4 18.1 -2 28.8 1.9 16.8 -0.4 7.4 0.2 6.2 -2.6 21.8 -0.6

160.6 1.5 6 4.4 154.5 1.4 10.8 5.7 32.6 3.1 6.4 21.3 4.8 3.3 2.2 8.5 1.9 18.1 -0.8 28.9 1.7 16.9 0 7.4 0.1 6.2 -1.9 21.9 0.2

161.5 1.8 6.1 4.2 155.4 1.7 10.9 6.4 32.8 3 6.4 21.3 4.9 3.3 2.1 8.6 2.2 18.3 0.3 29 1.3 17 1 7.4 0.1 6.2 -1.6 22 0.8

162.5 2 6.1 3.7 156.4 2 11.1 6.6 33 2.8 6.5 21.4 4.9 3.3 2.3 8.6 2.2 18.5 1.7 29.1 1.2 17.1 1.9 7.4 0.2 6.2 -1.3 22.1 1.3

163.5 2.3 6.2 3.2 157.3 2.3 11.4 7.5 33.1 2.6 6.5 21.5 5 3.3 2 8.6 1.8 18.8 3.7 29.1 1.1 17.2 2.2 7.4 0.3 6.2 -1.1 22.2 1.8

164.5 2.4 6.2 3.1 158.3 2.4 11.6 8 33.4 2.4 6.6 21.6 5 3.4 1.9 8.6 1.4 19 4.8 29.2 1 17.2 2.1 7.4 0.4 6.2 -1.1 22.3 2

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

160.7 -2.5 5.7 -9.4 155 -2.2 11.1 -7.7 31.8 -0.6 6.1 21.1 4.7 3.2 -4.9 8.6 -3.7 19.1 -5.3 28.1 -0.1 16.9 -2.9 7.3 -0.4 6.4 -1 22.5 -1

159.8 -2.2 5.6 -7.6 154.1 -2 10.7 -8 31.6 -2.5 6 21 4.5 3.2 -3.2 8.5 -4.1 19.1 -2 28.1 0.1 16.8 -4.1 7.3 1.9 6.4 -1 22.3 0.1

159.7 -1.6 5.6 -4.9 154.1 -1.4 10.4 -8.3 31.5 -3.4 6 21 4.5 3.1 -5.6 8.5 -2 18.8 -2.5 28.2 0.8 16.8 -1.7 7.3 1.2 7.2 10.8 22.2 -0.3

158.8 -1.6 5.6 -2.7 153.2 -1.6 10.2 -9.7 31.5 -3.1 6 21 4.5 3.1 -3 8.4 -2.7 18.6 -3 28.3 1.2 16.9 1.1 7.4 1.3 6.7 3.7 22.1 -1.6

10766.2 10765.4 10756.6 10770.7 10786.8 10826.2 10856.2 10924.9 11003.9 457.1 456.2 455.5 455.1 454.9 454.8 454.9 455.3 455.9 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0 0.2 209.2 208.4 208.1 207.9 208 208 207.9 207.9 208.1 -0.9 -2 -1.2 -0.1 -0.6 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 10.7 11 11.2 11.3 11 10.8 10.5 10.2 9.8 1166 915 969 1148 1475 1779 2041 2256 2408 1147 889 959 1140 1427 1707 1950 2153 2286 19 26 10 8 48 72 91 103 122

11075 11168.8 11265.3 11366.3 11432.3 11508.6 456.7 457.5 458.4 459.3 460.5 461.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 208.5 208.9 209.4 210 210.6 211.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1 1.1 9.5 9.1 8.6 8.3 7.9 7.7 2505 2635 2711 2783 2825 2876 2385 2516 2570 2611 2633 2667 120 119 141 172 193 209

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL March 2010 Forecast

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

10.8 4 5.2 5.6 10.4 2.6 25.1 24.3 30.2 1.2

11.3 4.8 5.5 5.8 10.7 2.7 25.9 24.6 31.4 3.7

12.1 7.2 5.9 6.2 11.2 4.4 27.3 25.3 33.2 5.9

12.9 7.1 6.3 6.7 11.6 4 28.9 26 34.5 4

14 8.6 6.8 7.3 12.3 5.7 31.1 27.1 36.2 5

14.4 2.8 6.9 7.5 12.3 0.1 31.8 27.1 37 2.2

14.5 0.6 6.8 7.7 12 -2.7 31.9 26.3 37.7 2

14.3 -1.9 6.6 7.7 11.7 -2.1 31.2 25.7 37.7 -0.1

14.9 4.8 6.7 8.2 12.1 3.1 32.8 26.5 39.1 3.7

15.5 3.5 6.8 8.6 12.3 2 33.9 27.1 39.9 2.1

16.1 4.4 7.1 9.1 12.7 2.8 35.2 27.6 40.6 1.8

16.9 4.7 7.4 9.5 13.1 3.1 36.5 28.2 41.5 2.3

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

155.4 -0.3 7.3 -7.1 148.1 0.1 11.1 -13.4 29.9 0.2 5.3 20.5 4.1 4.2 13.6 6.5 -6 19.2 5.4 25.3 4.6 15.7 -0.2 7.7 2.9 6.9 -6.2 21.6 -0.8

159.3 2.5 7.4 1.1 151.9 2.5 10.8 -2.8 30.2 1 5.3 20.8 4.1 4.1 -2 6.8 4.6 20.1 4.6 26.8 6.2 16.6 6.1 7.9 2.6 6.9 -0.5 21.6 0

163.7 2.8 7.3 -1.3 156.4 3 11.6 7.8 31.2 3.1 5.6 21.1 4.5 3.9 -4.5 7.5 9.8 21.6 7.2 26.7 -0.4 17.4 4.7 7.9 0.9 6.7 -2.2 21.8 0.9

169.5 3.5 7.5 3.1 161.9 3.6 13.9 19.4 33.1 6.1 6.2 21.9 5 3.7 -4.7 8.2 9.9 23.1 7.1 26 -2.9 17.3 -0.9 7.8 -1.6 6.7 -0.5 22.2 1.9

173.9 2.6 7.4 -1.4 166.5 2.8 15.3 10.4 33 -0.2 6.2 21.8 5 3.8 0.7 8.9 8.4 23.2 0.5 27.5 5.9 17.7 2.5 7.8 0 6.7 0.4 22.5 1.4

174 0.1 7 -5.2 167 0.3 14.8 -3.9 33.8 2.5 6.7 22.2 4.9 3.6 -5.7 9.2 3.1 22.3 -4.2 28.7 4.3 17.7 0 7.8 -0.4 6.6 -2.5 22.7 1.1

167.4 -3.8 6.5 -7.3 160.9 -3.6 12.8 -13.4 32.5 -3.9 6.2 21.5 4.9 3.5 -2.5 8.9 -3.3 20.9 -6.1 28.1 -2 17.6 -0.2 7.5 -3.8 6.5 -0.7 22.6 -0.5

161.9 -3.3 5.9 -10.3 156.1 -3 11.3 -11.3 32.4 -0.6 6.1 21.5 4.7 3.2 -6.8 8.7 -2.2 19.3 -7.8 28 -0.2 17 -3.3 7.3 -2.8 6.5 -0.6 22.4 -1

159.1 -1.8 5.6 -4 153.5 -1.7 10.4 -8.7 31.5 -2.5 6 21 4.5 3.1 -3.5 8.4 -2.9 18.7 -2.8 28.2 0.7 16.8 -1.3 7.4 1.2 6.7 3.5 22.2 -1

158.6 -0.3 5.8 3.1 152.8 -0.4 10.3 -0.9 31.7 0.6 6.2 20.9 4.6 3.2 3.1 8.4 -0.8 18.3 -2.3 28.5 1 16.8 -0.1 7.4 0.8 6.3 -5.6 21.8 -1.5

161.1 1.6 6.1 4.3 155 1.5 10.9 5.8 32.7 2.9 6.4 21.3 4.9 3.3 2.4 8.5 1.9 18.3 -0.2 29 1.5 16.9 0.6 7.4 0.1 6.2 -1.8 21.9 0.4

164.8 2.3 6.2 2.7 158.6 2.3 11.7 8 33.4 2.3 6.6 21.7 5 3.4 1.9 8.6 1.3 19 4.3 29.2 0.9 17.2 1.9 7.5 0.3 6.1 -1.1 22.4 2

9321.7 429.1 1.8 187.3 0.5 5.3 3141 2955 186

9679.8 435.4 1.5 191.1 2.1 4.8 4426 3558 868

10255 441.9 1.5 193.8 1.4 4.6 4713 3629 1083

10561 447.4 1.2 199.7 3.1 3.8 3764 3285 479

10933 452.2 1.1 205 2.6 3.1 2765 2325 440

10723 453.7 0.3 209 2 3.8 2469 1779 691

10612 455.4 0.4 209.7 0.3 5.8 1412 1203 209

10479 456.4 0.2 210.1 0.2 9.7 1087 1019 68

10770 455.4 -0.2 208.1 -1 11.1 1127 1104 23

10903 455.2 0 208 -0.1 10.3 2121 2024 97

11219 458 0.6 209.2 0.6 8.9 2659 2520 138

11541 462.3 0.9 211.7 1.2 7.5 2895 2688 207

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

T a l l aha s s ee

P r o fi l e s The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla counties. It is located between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State University and Florida A&M University. Quick Facts:

• Metro population estimate of 357,259 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Gadsden County population estimate of 47,560 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Jefferson County population estimate of 14,547 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Leon County population estimate of 264,063 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Wakulla County population estimate of 31,089 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• An MSA civilian labor force of 190,097 in April 2009 (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• An unemployment rate of 6.4% as of April 2009, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 12,163 unemployed people for the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• State Government (all departments) – 46,500 employees

• Local Government (all departments) – 16,100 employees

• Tallahassee Memorial Healthcare – 2,750 employees • Federal Government (all departments) – 1,900 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 2,000 employees

• Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – 1,900 employees • Capital Regional Medical Center – 878 employees

• ACS (Affiliated Computer Services) – 852 employees

• Tallahassee Leon County Civic Center – 672 employees • Capital City Bank Group – 626 employees

Source: Tallahassee Economic Development Council and Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation (CES)

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Tallahassee MSA is expected to show minimal growth in the economic indicators relative to other metro areas in the state. The area should see personal income growth averaging 4.2 percent each year, the lowest in the state. Per capita income levels should average 27.8. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.9 percent, and the average annual wage level will be 41.8. Population growth will be at 0.6 percent, and the Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 10,520.18 (Mill).

Employment growth is expected to be 0.1 percent each year, the lowest in the state. The unemployment rate, however, will average 7.4 percent, the second lowest in the state.

Manufacturing will be the fastest growing sector in Tallahassee, averaging 2.2 percent annually. The Construction & Mining and Information sectors follow with growth rates of 1.2 percent and 1.1 percent respectively. The Financial and Federal Government sectors will experience the greatest declines, with annual growth rates of -0.8 percent and -1.1 percent respectively.

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s New companies growing at Innovation Park • The Small Business Development Center at Innovation Park has been praised by entrepreneurs for its strong support for startups. Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T a l l aha s s ee

• The Innovation Park Technology Commercialization Grant program helps innovative businesses by providing $15,000 grants and affordable lab facilities. More than $200,000 in grants have been awarded since the start of the program five years ago. • Besides the grant and incubator program, entrepreneurs receive assistance in developing their business plans, strengthening their financial management skills, and developing marketing strategies. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, February 16, 2010 Proposed charter change would give Tallahassee mayor power to give business incentives • The changes to the Tallahassee’s charter would grant the city’s mayor powers to give cash incentives to businesses moving to or expanding their presence in Tallahassee. • These powers are designed to give the mayor the ability to respond quickly to economic development opportunities without consulting the commissioners first. • The charter-review committee expressed strong opinions that the incentive funds should only be used for certain targeted industries, and rejected the proposition to increase the mayor’s powers into those of the city’s CEO. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, February 24, 2010 EDC accepting applications for Recovery Zone facility Bond Program • Tallahassee/Leon County has been designated an “Economic Recovery Zone” under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, providing low-interest, tax-exempt loans for local businesses. • Tallahassee and Leon County were allocated $6,213,000 and $3,582,000 in bonding authority, respectively, making long-term financing available to eligible private developers. 80

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

• The deadline for application submission is 5PM April 1st. Businesses may request a minimum of $2 million, and no more than the combined city and county limit in allocations. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, March 8, 2010 Candlewood Suites opens in Tallahassee • Candlewood Suites, a division of InterContinental Hotel Group, has opened a new extended-stay, 114-room hotel. The project represents an investment of almost $10 million. • Amenities include flat-screen TVs, in-room kitchens with full-size refrigerators, stoves, dishes and utensils, as well as shared free laundry facilities, a pool, a gazebo and a snack room. • Director of Sales, Tonya Burke, believes that there is a need for extended-stay hotels in Tallahassee and is ready to compete with overnight-stay hotels. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, March 10, 2010 City seeks nod from Google for broadband • Tallahassee has applied to participate in Google’s project to bring super-broadband Internet access to the community. The application consists of two components, with the city’s part covering the utility aspect of the project, and the community’s part explaining the reasons Google should pick Tallahassee. • City officials are quoted saying that the costs of the project were still unknown. The mayor also expressed a sentiment that even if Tallahassee wasn’t chosen for Google’s project, there could be other ways to implement it without Google. • Google’s project notwithstanding, the commissioners also approved a one-year extension of the Good Neighbor Program, providing weatherization assistance to the underprivileged.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, March 11, 2010

T a l l aha s s ee

Tallahassee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.5

Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

2.5

100000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

95000.0 85000.0 80000.0 75000.0 70000.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Tallahassee Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

175.0 170.0 165.0 160.0 155.0

Tampa Real Gross Metro Product

65000.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Tallahassee Payroll Employment

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Tallahassee Real Personal Income

Tallahassee Payroll Employment 180.0

1.5

90000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T a l l aha s s ee

Quarterly Outlook for Tallahassee, FL* March 2010 Forecast

2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 Personal Income (Billions $)

11.7 -0.1 6.7 5 9.6 -1.3 32.2 26.3 39.4 1.5

12 3.8 6.8 5.2 9.7 1.7 33 26.8 39.8 4.4

12.1 4.1 6.8 5.3 9.8 2.3 33.3 27 40.2 4

12.2 4.6 6.8 5.4 9.9 3.2 33.6 27.1 40.5 4

12.3 4.7 6.9 5.4 9.9 3.6 33.8 27.2 40.8 3.5

12.4 3.6 6.9 5.5 10 2.4 34.1 27.3 41 3.1

12.5 3.4 6.9 5.6 10 1.8 34.3 27.4 41.2 2.6

12.6 3.2 7 5.6 10 1.5 34.5 27.5 41.4 2.2

12.7 3.4 7 5.7 10.1 1.7 34.8 27.6 41.6 2.1

12.9 3.6 7.1 5.8 10.2 2 35.1 27.7 41.9 2.1

13 4.2 7.1 5.9 10.2 2.6 35.5 27.9 42.1 2.1

13.2 4.6 7.2 6 10.3 3 35.8 28.1 42.3 2.2

13.3 4.7 7.3 6 10.4 3.2 36.1 28.2 42.6 2.3

13.5 4.8 7.4 6.1 10.5 3.3 36.5 28.4 42.9 2.5

13.7 4.8 7.5 6.2 10.6 3.3 36.8 28.5 43.3 2.7

167.8 -2.6 3.8 -3 164.1 -2.5 6.9 -9 21.8 -2.6 3.4 16.6 1.9 3.3 -5.4 6.8 -3.3 18.5 -2.8 19.3 1.3 16.4 -1.5 9.4 1.1 2 1 59.6 -3.5

167.2 -1.9 3.8 0.3 163.4 -1.9 6.8 -8.6 21.8 -0.8 3.4 16.5 1.9 3.3 -1.8 6.8 -2.8 18.4 -3.9 19.3 0.5 16.3 -0.7 9.5 0.7 1.9 0.9 59.3 -2.4

167.1 -1.4 3.9 2 163.2 -1.4 6.8 -5.5 21.8 -0.5 3.4 16.5 1.9 3.4 0.1 6.8 -1.9 18.4 -3.2 19.2 0.3 16.3 -0.1 9.5 1 1.9 -0.8 59.1 -2.1

167 -1 3.9 3.6 163.1 -1.1 6.9 -2.4 21.8 -0.1 3.4 16.4 1.9 3.4 4.5 6.8 -1.5 18.1 -2.9 19.3 0.6 16.4 0.2 9.5 1.2 1.9 -11.6 58.9 -1.8

167.3 -0.3 4 5 163.3 -0.5 7 1.2 21.9 0.5 3.5 16.4 2 3.4 4.2 6.8 -0.6 18.1 -2.1 19.5 1.1 16.3 -0.6 9.5 0.8 1.9 -6.4 58.8 -1.2

167.7 0.3 4 5.6 163.6 0.1 7.1 3.2 22.1 1.3 3.5 16.6 2 3.4 3 6.8 0.8 18.1 -1.2 19.6 1.5 16.2 -0.6 9.5 0.9 1.9 -2.6 58.8 -0.7

168 0.5 4.1 6 163.9 0.4 7.2 4.7 22.3 2.1 3.5 16.6 2 3.5 2.8 6.9 1.4 18 -1.9 19.6 1.8 16.3 -0.5 9.5 0.5 1.9 -2.2 58.9 -0.3

168.8 1.1 4.1 5.4 164.6 1 7.3 5.9 22.4 2.7 3.6 16.7 2 3.5 2.1 6.9 1.8 18 -0.6 19.7 1.6 16.3 -0.2 9.5 0.3 1.9 -1.6 59.1 0.4

169.7 1.5 4.2 5.1 165.5 1.4 7.4 6.5 22.6 2.7 3.6 16.8 2.1 3.5 2.3 6.9 2 18.2 0.6 19.7 1.2 16.4 0.8 9.6 0.3 1.9 -1.2 59.3 0.9

170.7 1.8 4.2 4.5 166.5 1.8 7.5 6.6 22.7 2.5 3.6 16.9 2.1 3.5 2.6 7 2 18.5 1.9 19.8 1 16.5 1.8 9.6 0.3 1.9 -0.9 59.6 1.3

171.7 2.2 4.3 4 167.4 2.1 7.7 7.3 22.8 2.3 3.7 16.9 2.1 3.5 2.1 7 1.7 18.7 3.9 19.8 1 16.6 2.2 9.6 0.5 1.8 -0.7 59.9 1.7

172.7 2.3 4.3 3.9 168.4 2.3 7.8 7.6 22.9 2.2 3.7 17 2.1 3.6 2.1 7 1.3 19 5.2 19.8 0.9 16.7 2.1 9.6 0.5 1.8 -0.8 60.2 1.8

10187.6 10230.8 10213.4 10222.1 364.4 363.7 363.7 363.9 1 0.6 0.4 0.2 187.2 186 185.5 185.2 -1.8 -3.1 -2.7 -1.7 8.3 8.6 8.7 8.8 754 709 786 922 688 549 624 780 66 159 162 142

10230 364.2 -0.1 185.2 -1.1 8.6 1170 1016 154

10259 10282.8 10343.9 10418.1 10485.1 10570.3 10658.7 10752.9 10812.4 10883.6 364.5 364.6 365 365.6 366.4 367.2 368.1 369 369.9 370.9 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 1 1 185.3 185.2 185.3 185.5 186 186.5 187 187.6 188.2 188.8 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 8.4 8.1 7.9 7.6 7.4 7 6.7 6.4 6.2 6 1435 1656 1857 2018 2116 2264 2405 2486 2532 2588 1256 1472 1655 1783 1868 1985 2073 2099 2102 2125 178 184 202 235 248 278 332 387 429 463

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

170.4 -2.3 3.8 -10.2 166.6 -2.1 7.5 -6.3 22 -5.5 3.4 16.6 2 3.4 -6.5 7 -10.6 19.1 -2.6 19.2 0.2 16.5 0.4 9.4 0 1.9 -5 60.7 -0.3

169.4 -2.8 3.8 -8.8 165.6 -2.7 7.2 -6.6 21.9 -5.8 3.4 16.6 1.9 3.4 -2 6.9 -9.6 19 -1.1 19.2 0.6 16.4 -1.9 9.4 1 1.9 -0.2 60.3 -2.4

168.6 -2.4 3.8 -4.9 164.8 -2.3 7 -6.8 21.9 -6.7 3.4 16.5 1.9 3.3 -3 6.9 -5.4 18.7 -2.3 19.2 1.3 16.3 -1.6 9.4 1 2.1 12.5 60 -1.9

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

T a l l aha s s ee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL March 2010 Forecast

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

8.6 2.7 5.4 3.2 8.4 1.4 26.2 25.4 32.7 3.2

9 4.3 5.6 3.4 8.5 2.2 26.9 25.5 33.6 2.7

9.7 8.2 5.9 3.8 9 5.4 28.7 26.6 35 4.1

10.5 7.5 6.2 4.2 9.4 4.4 30.4 27.3 35.8 2.5

11.1 6.4 6.5 4.6 9.7 3.6 31.9 27.9 36.8 2.7

11.6 4.3 6.8 4.8 9.9 1.5 32.7 27.8 38 3.3

11.8 1.6 6.9 4.9 9.7 -1.7 32.8 27 38.6 1.5

11.7 -1.3 6.7 4.9 9.6 -1.5 32.1 26.4 38.8 0.5

12.2 4.3 6.8 5.3 9.8 2.7 33.4 27 40.3 3.9

12.6 3.4 6.9 5.6 10 1.9 34.4 27.4 41.3 2.5

13.1 4.3 7.2 5.9 10.3 2.7 35.6 28 42.2 2.2

13.7 4.9 7.5 6.2 10.6 3.4 37 28.6 43.4 2.8

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

164.4 -0.9 4.1 -6.6 160.2 -0.8 7.2 3.5 23.4 -3.1 3.2 18.1 2.1 4 -13.4 7.4 7.4 18.2 -2.7 16.5 -1.8 13.4 3.2 8.1 -0.2 1.9 2.2 60.1 -0.5

165.7 0.8 4.1 -0.6 161.6 0.8 7.7 7.1 23.5 0.5 3 18.5 2 3.8 -3.8 7.7 3 18.2 -0.1 16.7 1.1 13.6 1.6 7.8 -3.7 2 3 60.6 0.8

168.2 1.5 4.2 2 163.9 1.5 8.3 8.6 24.6 4.4 3.3 19.1 2.1 4 4.6 7.6 -0.7 18.2 -0.2 16.4 -1.7 14.4 6.1 8 2.8 1.9 -3.3 60.5 -0.1

172.8 2.8 4.2 0.8 168.5 2.8 9.4 12.4 25.4 3.4 3.6 19.3 2.5 4.1 1.9 8 4.8 19.2 5.5 16.8 2.7 15.6 8.3 8 -0.6 1.9 0 60.1 -0.5

177 2.4 4.5 4.9 172.5 2.4 9.8 4.8 25.6 0.9 3.7 19.4 2.4 3.9 -4.7 8.3 4.4 20.1 4.9 17.4 3.4 16.2 3.3 8.5 5.8 1.9 -1.7 60.8 1.2

179 1.1 4.6 2.8 174.4 1.1 9.5 -3 25.3 -1.2 3.8 19.2 2.4 4 2.6 8.2 -1.9 19.9 -1.1 18.1 3.9 16.7 3.7 9 5.9 1.9 0 61.8 1.6

176.9 -1.2 4.4 -4.8 172.5 -1.1 8.6 -9.6 24.2 -4.4 3.6 18.5 2.1 3.8 -3.7 8 -1.8 19.6 -1.2 18.9 4.5 16.5 -1.7 9.4 5.1 2 4 61.4 -0.6

172.4 -2.5 4 -9.1 168.4 -2.4 7.6 -11.8 22.8 -5.9 3.5 17.3 2 3.4 -10.7 7.2 -9.8 19.1 -2.7 19.1 0.8 16.6 0.8 9.3 -0.9 1.9 -2.6 61.4 -0.1

168.3 -2.4 3.8 -4.2 164.5 -2.4 7 -7.8 21.9 -4 3.4 16.6 1.9 3.3 -3.1 6.9 -5.4 18.6 -2.5 19.2 0.9 16.4 -1.4 9.4 1 2 3.5 59.8 -2.6

167.2 -0.6 3.9 4.1 163.3 -0.7 6.9 -0.9 21.9 0.3 3.4 16.5 2 3.4 2.9 6.8 -0.8 18.2 -2.4 19.4 0.9 16.3 -0.3 9.5 1 1.9 -5.5 58.9 -1.5

169.3 1.2 4.2 5.2 165.1 1.1 7.3 5.9 22.5 2.5 3.6 16.8 2.1 3.5 2.5 6.9 1.8 18.2 0 19.7 1.4 16.4 0.5 9.6 0.4 1.9 -1.5 59.2 0.6

173.1 2.2 4.3 3.5 168.8 2.2 7.9 7.6 23 2.1 3.7 17.1 2.1 3.6 2.1 7 1.2 19 4.6 19.8 0.8 16.7 1.9 9.6 0.5 1.8 -0.7 60.3 1.8

9378.9 328.9 1.1 172.5 0 4.5 2661 2177 483

9572.3 334.1 1.6 173.4 0.5 4.2 3822 2424 1398

9808.5 338.8 1.4 172.9 -0.3 3.8 3382 2131 1251

10195 343.8 1.5 176.4 2.1 3.2 3702 2767 934

10391 349.5 1.6 181.4 2.8 2.8 3096 2536 560

10521 355.3 1.7 186.3 2.7 3.2 2765 2171 594

10452 359.5 1.2 190.4 2.2 4.6 1507 1038 469

10188 362.9 1 189.5 -0.5 7.4 847 690 158

10224 363.9 0.3 185.5 -2.1 8.6 897 742 154

10326 364.9 0.3 185.3 -0.1 8 1741 1542 200

10617 367.7 0.8 186.8 0.8 6.9 2318 2006 311

10914 371.4 1 189.1 1.2 5.9 2609 2137 472

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T a m pa – St . P ete r s bu r g – C l ea r w ate r

P r o fi l e s The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is comprised of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas counties. Located centrally on the west coast of Florida, this region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge Docks, Ybor City, Bush Gardens, the University of South Florida, and the University of Tampa. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Devil Rays also call this region home. Quick Facts:

• MSA population estimate of 2,733,761 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hernando County population estimate of 171,689 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Hillsborogh County population estimate of 1,180,784 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Pasco County population estimate of 471,028 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• Pinellas County population estimate of 910,260 as of July 1, 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau)

• A civilian labor force of 1,315,637 in April 2009 for the entire region (Florida Research and Economic Database)

• An unemployment rate of 10.1% as of April 2009, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 64,031 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Database) Top Area Employers:

• Hillsborough County School District – 25,487 employees • Verizon Communications – 14,000 employees

• MacDill Air Force Base – 12,000 employees • University of South Florida – 11,607 employees

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

• Hillsborough County Government – 10,886 employees • Tampa International Airport – 7,760 employees

• James A Haley Veterans Hospital – 5,900 employees • St. Joseph’s Hospital – 5,242 employees • JP Morgan Chase – 5,237 employees

• Verizon Information Technologies – 5,000 employees Source: Committee of One Hundred Research

Out l o o k Su m m a r ie s The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to be 5.4 percent on average each year, and the per capita income level will average 32.0 annually. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.9 percent, one of the highest in the state. The average annual wage level will be 46.7. Population growth will average 0.7 percent, and Tampa is forecasted to have the second highest Gross Metro Product, averaging a level of 92,634.03 (Mill). Employment growth is expected to be 2.0 percent annually, tied for second highest in the state. The unemployment rate is expected to average 10.5 percent.

The fastest growing sector in the Tampa area is Professional and Business Services, growing 6.7 percent each year. The Construction & Mining and Manufacturing sectors follow with average annual growth rates of 2.5 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively. The Federal Government sector is the only sector that will experience a decline, with an annual growth rate of -0.4 percent. The Financial and State & Local Government sectors will experience no growth.

T a m pa – St . P ete r s bu r g – C l ea r w ate r

Met r o Ne w s Su m m a r ie s Massive Hernando County development wins planning board approval • Zoning and master plan approval for the Lake Hideaway project was unanimously recommended by the Hernando County Planning and Zoning Commission. • The 885-acre development planned for north of Spring Hill will include as many as 3,700 housing units, neighborhood commercial retail space, and office and professional space. The project will also include a new school, a community park, and public facilities. • The County Commission still must approve the project before rezoning can take place. Source: St. Petersburg Times, January 11, 2010 Skanska awarded USF contract for teaching and research facility • Skanska USA, headquartered in New York, won a $55 million contract to build a new interdisciplinary facility at the University of South Florida. • The facility will be 72,600 square feet and will house teaching and research capacities for physics, biology, chemistry, anatomy, and nanotechnologies. • The building will meet gold level certification requirements in the Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design classification system for green buildings. • Construction is expected to be completed by August 2011. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, January 19, 2010 Hernando schools need $4.5 million to meet classsize requirements this fall • To meet next year’s class size requirements, the Hernando County School District will have to add 78 teaching positions, which will cost approximately $4.5 million. • By August, classes must be capped at 18 students per teacher in elementary schools, 22 in middle schools, and 25 in high schools. If the county

fails to meet these requirements, the state could force rezoning, double sessions, a year-round calendar, and/or a fine on the district of $1.2 million. • The district is looking at shifting staff from support positions to core teaching roles and cutting services such as sports and transportation, among other considerations, to meet these requirements. Source: St. Petersburg Times, January 20, 2010 TBARTA chair: Momentous day for regional mass transit • The Tampa Bay Area Regional Transportation Authority’s plan to create a regional mass transit system got a big boost after President Obama announced that the federal government would spend $1.25 billion on the project. • The high-speed rail system will have stops in downtown Tampa, Lakeland, Disney World, and Orlando International Airport. Construction could start as soon as 2011 and be completed by 2014. • If Hillsborough taxpayers approve a onecent increase in sales tax this November, the downtown Tampa station will connect to the University of South Florida via light rail as soon as 2015 or 2016. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, January 28, 2010 Tampa Bay Water desal plant hits milestone gets financial boost • After passing two final performance tests, Tampa Bay Water will receive $31.25 million for the Tampa Bay Seawater Desalination facility. • The desalination plant adds a drought-proof component to the region’s existing water supply system. The plant successfully produced 25 million gallons of water each day for four months, providing about 10 % of the region’s drinking water supply. • Additional funding for the plant will come from the Southwest Florida Water Management District. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, February 26, 2010 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T a m pa – St . P ete r s bu r g – C l ea r w ate r

Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utiliti Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0

0.2

Florida & Tampa Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

1.4

1.6

100000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

95000.0

80000.0 75000.0 70000.0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 FL Unemployment Rate Tampa Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

1200.0 1150.0 1100.0

1.2

85000.0

1250.0

1050.0

Tampa Real Gross Metro Product

65000.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Tampa Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Gross Metro Product

Tampa Real Personal Income

Tampa Payroll Employment 1300.0

0.8

90000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.4

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

(percent change year ago)

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Real Personal Income

T a m pa – St . P ete r s bu r g – C l ea r w ate r

Quarterly Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL* March 2010 Forecast

2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 Personal Income (Billions $)

100.1 -1.4 51.3 48.8 81.5 -2.6 36.1 29.4 44 1.5

102.6 3.4 51.7 50.9 83.2 1.3 37.1 30.1 44.4 4.2

103.8 4.3 52.2 51.6 84.2 2.6 37.6 30.5 44.8 3.8

105.1 5.7 52.7 52.4 84.9 4.2 38.1 30.8 45.2 3.9

106.2 6.1 53.1 53 85.5 4.9 38.5 31 45.5 3.6

107.4 4.7 53.7 53.7 86.1 3.6 38.9 31.2 45.8 3.2

108.4 4.4 54.2 54.2 86.6 2.9 39.2 31.3 46 2.7

109.6 4.3 54.8 54.7 87.2 2.7 39.5 31.5 46.2 2.3

111.1 4.6 55.7 55.4 88.1 2.9 40 31.7 46.5 2.1

112.8 5 56.5 56.3 89 3.4 40.5 32 46.8 2.1

114.5 5.7 57.3 57.1 90.1 4 41 32.2 47 2.1

116.2 6 58.2 57.9 91 4.4 41.5 32.5 47.3 2.3

117.9 6.1 59.2 58.6 92 4.5 41.9 32.7 47.6 2.4

119.7 6.2 60.3 59.4 93.1 4.6 42.4 33 48 2.6

121.7 6.3 61.4 60.3 94.3 4.7 43 33.3 48.3 2.8

1155.5 0.1 62.6 0.2 1093 0.1 57.2 -6.8 206.4 -0.8 45.5 135.9 24.7 27.3 -2 92.7 -2 221.3 4.9 174.4 0.3 116.6 -0.1 49.7 0.9 22.1 1.9 125.4 -1.9

1160.6 0.8 63.3 1.9 1097.3 0.7 57.6 -3.5 206.1 -0.5 45.6 135.2 24.9 27.6 -0.4 92.3 -1.7 226.1 6.3 174.2 0.3 116.4 0.1 49.9 1.2 21.9 -0.3 125.2 -1.5

1165.9 1.1 64.2 3.5 1101.7 1 58.1 -0.4 206.7 0.1 46.1 134.8 25.2 27.9 4.1 92.2 -1.6 228.5 6.2 175.2 0.8 116.5 0.2 49.9 1.3 21.7 -11.7 124.8 -1.2

1174.6 1.9 65.2 5 1109.5 1.7 59 3.2 208.1 0.8 46.9 135.1 25.6 27.9 3.5 92.6 -0.9 232.4 7 176.9 1.5 116.1 -0.7 50 0.8 21.6 -6.3 124.8 -0.9

1186.5 2.7 66.1 5.6 1120.4 2.5 60.1 5.1 209.9 1.7 47.4 136.1 25.9 27.9 2.3 93.1 0.4 239 8 178 2.1 115.7 -0.7 50.1 0.9 21.6 -2.5 124.8 -0.4

1197.5 3.2 67 5.9 1130.5 3 61.2 6.4 211.6 2.6 47.8 136.9 26.2 28.3 2.3 93.6 1.4 244 7.9 179 2.8 116 -0.3 50.2 0.5 21.5 -1.7 125 -0.1

1208.5 3.6 67.6 5.3 1140.9 3.6 62.5 7.6 213.3 3.2 48.3 137.8 26.6 28.4 1.7 94.2 2.2 248.5 8.7 179.9 2.7 116.7 0.2 50.2 0.4 21.5 -1.2 125.7 0.7

1220.6 3.9 68.4 5 1152.2 3.8 63.9 8.2 214.7 3.1 48.7 138.5 26.8 28.5 2 94.8 2.4 253.9 9.2 180.9 2.3 117.5 1.2 50.2 0.4 21.4 -0.9 126.4 1.3

1233.7 4 69.1 4.5 1164.7 4 65.3 8.7 216.1 3 49.2 139.2 27.1 28.6 2.4 95.3 2.4 260.2 8.9 181.7 2.1 118.4 2.3 50.4 0.4 21.4 -0.8 127.2 1.9

1246.5 4.1 69.8 4.2 1176.7 4.1 67 9.4 217.4 2.7 49.7 139.7 27.3 28.8 1.8 95.5 2 266.8 9.3 182.2 1.8 119.2 2.8 50.4 0.6 21.4 -0.7 128 2.4

1259 4.2 70.3 4 1188.7 4.2 68.8 10 218.8 2.6 50 140.6 27.5 28.9 1.9 95.7 1.6 272.8 9.8 183 1.7 119.9 2.8 50.5 0.7 21.3 -0.6 128.9 2.5

86813.8 87271.5 87507.4 87947.2 88440.6 89025.5 89554.9 90417.4 2772.7 2761.5 2757.9 2757.9 2760.9 2763.7 2766.5 2771 0.6 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 0.1 0.3 0.5 1312.7 1306.9 1305.4 1304.9 1305.2 1305.7 1305.8 1307.2 -1.7 -1.9 -1.6 -0.3 -0.6 -0.1 0 0.2 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.5 12.1 11.7 11.3 7592 8184 8275 9276 11507 13262 14801 15911 4827 3773 4220 5539 7475 9356 11139 12748 2765 4410 4055 3738 4032 3906 3663 3163

91526 2777.8 0.6 1310 0.4 10.8 16712 13979 2733

92611 93693.1 94810.7 95998.5 96910.6 97866.2 2785.1 2793.2 2801.9 2811.2 2821.2 2831.6 0.8 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1314 1318.1 1322 1326.9 1332.4 1338.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 10.4 9.9 9.4 9 8.6 8.3 17576 18729 20048 20990 21643 22426 14840 15925 16856 17321 17653 18096 2736 2804 3192 3669 3990 4330

Other Economic Indicators

Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1154.5 -4.5 62.4 -10.4 1092 -4.1 61.3 -14.1 208 -6.4 45.8 136.4 25.8 27.8 -6.6 94.6 -2.5 210.9 -6.5 173.9 2 116.7 -3.4 49.2 2.4 21.7 -0.1 127.8 -3

1151.5 -3.3 62.1 -8.3 1089.5 -3 59.6 -10.4 207.1 -5.3 45.7 136.2 25.1 27.8 -5.4 94 -2.9 212.7 -1.4 173.6 1 116.3 -5 49.3 1.7 21.9 0.7 127.1 -3.7

1152.9 -2 62 -5.5 1090.9 -1.8 58.4 -8.5 206.5 -4.6 45.8 135.7 24.9 26.8 -6.2 93.7 -3 215.1 0.8 173.8 1.6 116.2 -3.9 49.3 -0.2 24.6 13.4 126.4 -2.1

1153 -1 62.1 -3.2 1090.9 -0.9 57.2 -9.4 206.4 -2.7 45.5 136 24.7 27 -3 93.5 -1.9 217.3 3 174.2 1.3 116.8 -2.6 49.6 0.8 23.1 5.8 125.9 -2.3

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

T a m pa – St . P ete r s bu r g – C l ea r w ate r

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL March 2010 Forecast

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

76 4.1 42 34 73.6 2.7 30.5 29.5 36.2 4.2

78.9 3.8 42.9 36 74.9 1.8 31.1 29.5 36.8 1.7

84.9 7.6 45.9 39 78.5 4.9 32.7 30.3 37.8 2.8

91.3 7.5 49 42.3 81.9 4.3 34.4 30.9 39 3.2

98.4 7.8 52.2 46.1 85.9 4.9 36.4 31.8 40.9 4.9

101.3 3 54 47.4 86.2 0.3 37.1 31.6 42.4 3.6

102.1 0.8 53.5 48.6 84.1 -2.5 37.1 30.6 43.2 1.9

99.5 -2.5 51.3 48.3 81.8 -2.7 36 29.6 43.3 0.2

104.4 4.9 52.4 52 84.4 3.2 37.8 30.6 45 3.9

109.1 4.5 54.6 54.5 87 3 39.4 31.4 46.1 2.6

115.3 5.7 57.8 57.5 90.5 4.1 41.2 32.4 47.1 2.2

122.6 6.3 61.9 60.7 94.8 4.7 43.2 33.4 48.5 2.9

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1150.2 -0.9 80 -5.1 1070.2 -0.6 69.6 2.8 228 -1.9 53.3 141.9 32.8 35.8 -8 92.5 0.1 190.9 -3.8 143 2 115.7 1 48 5.5 19 0.6 127.7 -0.1

1153.7 0.3 76 -5 1077.7 0.7 72 3.5 221.5 -2.8 50.4 139.7 31.4 34.6 -3.5 93.9 1.5 197.9 3.6 147.6 3.2 116.1 0.4 47.9 -0.2 19.5 2.8 126.6 -0.8

1203.1 4.3 76.6 0.8 1126.5 4.5 79.1 9.9 226.5 2.2 50.9 143.3 32.3 32.9 -4.8 95.5 1.7 224.2 13.3 152.3 3.2 119.7 3.1 49.2 2.7 19.9 2.2 127.2 0.4

1244.7 3.5 77.3 0.9 1167.4 3.6 88.3 11.6 233.9 3.2 52.8 149 32.1 32.7 -0.6 99.4 4.1 237.2 5.8 154.7 1.6 123.7 3.3 49.4 0.5 20.8 4.3 127.2 0

1264.4 1.6 78.2 1.2 1186.2 1.6 93.9 6.3 236.1 1 54 151 31.1 32.6 -0.2 102.7 3.2 240.3 1.3 158.4 2.4 125.9 1.8 47.1 -4.6 21 1.2 128.1 0.7

1260.2 -0.3 75.6 -3.4 1184.6 -0.1 87.4 -7 234.6 -0.7 54.3 150.8 29.4 32.6 -0.1 101.8 -0.9 237 -1.4 165.6 4.5 126.2 0.2 47.8 1.5 21.1 0.5 130.6 2

1225.4 -2.8 71.5 -5.4 1153.9 -2.6 76.1 -12.8 227.4 -3 53.1 146.4 28 30.9 -5.3 97.7 -4 227.7 -3.9 170.1 2.7 122.6 -2.8 48.5 1.4 21.7 3 131 0.3

1171.9 -4.4 65 -9.2 1106.9 -4.1 63.7 -16.4 213.8 -6 47.6 140.2 26 28.4 -8.1 95.8 -2 212.7 -6.6 172.2 1.2 120 -2.1 49.1 1.1 21.8 0.1 129.4 -1.2

1153.2 -1.6 62.2 -4.3 1091.1 -1.4 58.1 -8.8 206.6 -3.4 45.6 135.9 24.8 27.2 -4.2 93.5 -2.5 216.6 1.8 174 1 116.5 -2.9 49.5 0.8 22.9 5.5 126.2 -2.5

1171.9 1.6 64.7 4 1107.2 1.5 58.7 1 207.7 0.5 46.5 135.3 25.4 27.8 2.3 92.6 -1 231.5 6.9 176.1 1.2 116.2 -0.3 50 1.1 21.7 -5.4 124.9 -1

1215.1 3.7 68 5.2 1147.1 3.6 63.2 7.7 213.9 3 48.5 138.1 26.7 28.4 2.1 94.5 2.1 251.6 8.7 180.4 2.4 117.1 0.8 50.2 0.4 21.5 -1.2 126.1 1

1264.5 4.1 70.5 3.6 1194 4.1 69.6 10 219.3 2.5 50.2 140.8 27.6 29 2 95.9 1.5 275.6 9.5 183.4 1.7 120.2 2.6 50.6 0.7 21.3 -0.5 129.2 2.5

80046 2492.4 1.7 1223 1 5.6 23639 18032 5608

83089 2536.8 1.8 1226.3 0.3 5.3 27283 20013 7270

86840 2594.3 2.3 1254.9 2.3 4.5 27279 22068 5211

91655 2654.2 2.3 1258 0.2 3.9 32762 27605 5158

95141 2699.9 1.7 1281.9 1.9 3.4 22881 19469 3412

94924 2729 1.1 1303.6 1.7 4.2 11564 8527 3037

92959 2749.7 0.8 1324.1 1.6 6.5 8932 5347 3585

88853 2766.3 0.6 1319.9 -0.3 11.2 6350 4194 2156

87792 2759.5 -0.2 1305.6 -1.1 12.6 9311 5252 4059

90131 2769.7 0.4 1307.2 0.1 11.5 15171 11805 3366

94278 2797.9 1 1320.3 1 9.7 19336 16236 3100

98335 2837.3 1.4 1341.7 1.6 8.1 22603 18254 4349

Florida & Metro Forecast - March 2010

I n d u s t r y L o cati o n Q u o tie n t

E x p l a n ati o n a n d I n te r p r etati o n This technique compares the local economy to a reference economy; in this case, the local economy is the chosen MSA, and the reference economy is the state of Florida. An Industry Location Quotient (LQ ) is calculated to determine if the local economy has a greater share of each industryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s employment than the reference economy. The LQ helps to identify specializations that exist in the local economy. There are only three possible outcomes: 1. An LQ greater than one 2. An LQ equal to one and 3. An LQ less than one. An LQ that is greater than one means that the share of local employment in that particular industry is greater than the reference economy employment share in that same industry. This implies that some of the goods or services produced by that industry are exported for consumption elsewhere. An LQ of one means that local demand is met by the local industry. No goods/services are imported or exported from the local area in that industry. The share of local employment in that industry is equal to the share for that industry in the reference economy. An LQ less than one implies that the industry is not meeting local demand for that good or service, and in order to meet demand, that area must import that good or service. This also means that the share of local employment in that industry is less than the share of employment in that industry for the reference economy.

C a l cu l ati o n An industry location quotient is a calculated ratio of two ratios. LQ = ((Local employment in industry A in year T / Total local employment in year T) / (Reference economy employment in industry A in year T) / (Total reference employment in year T)) For example: Orlando MSA employment for Information is 27,400

Total Orlando MSA nonagricultural employment is 1,104,100 Florida employment for Information is 169,800

Total Florida nonagricultural employment is 8,247,000 LQ = ((27,400 / 1,104,100) / (169,800 / 8,247,000)) = 1.2039 Source: Florida Regional Economic Database, Current Employment Statistics, December 2006 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

In Appeciation

The UCF College of Business Administration would like to thank Alan C. Charron, ‘84, for his generous gift to the Institute for Economic Competitiveness. His support enables the Institute to publish this forecast and will help fund future activities and research. Charron graduated in 1984 with a degree in finance. He is president of Real Property Specialists, Inc., located in Orlando, Florida. Founded in 1992, Real Property Specialists, Inc., is a fullservice brokerage company that has built a reputation of providing highly personalized service while being responsive and flexible to its clients' individual needs. They offer a range of commercial real estate services in the Central Florida area including brokerage, appraisal, development, property management and tenant representation. Real Property Specialists, Inc., has set a new standard of excellence in client service by providing these key advantages over the competition:

Responsiveness. You work directly with a decision

maker who has the flexibility to immediately attend to your needs.

Consistency. We are a unified firm employing team-

members who are committed to the success of our clients. We pride ourselves on our ability to maintain a dedicated, professional staff that is able to build long-term, comfortable and prosperous relationships with our clients.

Accountability. At Real Property Specialists, our client is the real "Boss." We are accountable to no one other than the client. No company policy interferes with our ability to serve the individual needs of each client. Experience. The staff at Real Property Specialists is

highly qualified, with most associates having more than a decade of experience in the industry. Our personal portfolio of shopping centers gives us first-hand knowledge of what is important when leasing, managing or selling a property.

Appraisers • Brokers • Consultants 6700 Conroy-Windermere Road, Suite 230 | Orlando, FL 32835 407.291.9000 | www.realpropertyspecialists.com

Director, Institute for Economic Competitiveness. Ph.D., Pennsylvania State University 1996; M.A., Pennsylvania State University 1994; B.S., Allegheny College 1989.

Sea n M . S n ait h , P h . D .

We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness:

Sean Snaith, Ph.D., is the Director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness within the College of Business Administration at the University of Central Florida and is a widely recognized economist in the field of business and economic forecasting. As an award-winning forecaster, researcher, and professor, Snaith is always interested in the application of academic expertise to the solution of real world problems. Snaith has served as a consultant for a client list ranging from local and regional municipalities to multi-national corporations, including Compaq, Dell and IBM. He has held teaching positions at Pennsylvania State University, American University in Cairo, University of North Dakota and University of the Pacific. Snaith frequently appears in national and regional media and is sought after as a speaker. He has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, the New York Times, and the Chicago Tribune and has appeared on CNBC and Fox Business Channel. Known for his engaging presentations, one business editor wrote, “Snaith (has) an uncanny knack of making economics not only understandable but interesting.” Snaith is a member of several economic organizations and national economic forecasting panels including USA Today’s Survey of Top Economists, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, Bloomberg, Reuters and the Livingston Survey. In 2007 he was named California’s most accurate forecaster by the Western Blue Chip Consensus Forecast, besting UCLA, Wells Fargo and other esteemed forecasting groups. Snaith holds a B.S. in Economics from Allegheny College and an M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from Pennsylvania State University. Snaith was recently named by Bloomberg News as one of the nation’s most accurate forecasters and was one of just two academic economists making the list which was released in the December 2008 issue of Bloomberg Markets. For more information Sean Snaith, Director Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida P.O. Box 161400 Orlando, FL 32816 PH: 407.823.1451 FAX: 407.823.1454 E-MAIL: ssnaith@bus.ucf.edu www.iec.ucf.edu

U n i v e r s it y o f C e n t r al F l o r ida College of Business Administration Institute for Economic Competitiveness P. O . B o x 1 6 1 4 0 0 , O r l a n d o , F l o r i d a 3 2 8 1 6 PH 407.823.1453

FAX 407.823.1454

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