JUNE 2017 3 0 Y E A R R E P O RT | 2 017-2 0 4 6
Florida & Metro
FORECAST
About University of Central Florida (UCF) The University of Central Florida is a public, multi-campus, metropolitan research university, dedicated to serving its surrounding communities with their diverse and expanding populations, technological corridors, and international partners. The mission of the university is to offer highquality undergraduate and graduate education, student development, and continuing education; to conduct research and creative activities; and to provide services that enhance the intellectual, cultural, environmental, and economic development of the metropolitan region, address national and international issues in key areas, establish UCF as a major presence, and contribute to the global community.
About the College of Business Administration The College of Business Administration advances the university’s mission and goals in providing intellectual leadership through research, teaching, and service. The college is striving to enhance graduate programs, while maintaining the strong undergraduate base. The college delivers research and quality business education programs at the undergraduate, masters, doctoral, and executive levels to citizens of the state of Florida and to select clientele nationally and internationally.
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FLO R I DA & M E TRO FO R EC A S T 2017 - 2046
Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright Š 2017 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved. Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Angela Ayala, Administrative Assistant Diana Merchant, Researcher Leigh Durden, Researcher Maegan Alexis Trinidad, Researcher Coulter Small, Researcher Colin Lancaster, Researcher Brandt Dietry, Researcher This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitiveness’ judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.
TA B LE O F CO NTENTS
Florida Highlights and Summary................................................. 5-13 Florida Forecast Tables................................................................. 14-28 Florida Forecast Charts............................................................... 29-37 Florida News Summaries.................................................................... 38 Deltona–Daytona Beach–Ormond Beach...........................39-46 Gainesville........................................................................................... 47-54 Jacksonville........................................................................................ 55-62 Lakeland–Winter Haven............................................................... 63-70 Miami–Fort Lauderdale–West Palm Beach...........................71-78 Naples–Immokalee–Marco Island............................................ 79-86 Ocala..................................................................................................... 87-94 Orlando–Kissimmee–Sanford...................................................95-102 Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville..............................................103-110 Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent......................................................111-118 Tallahassee........................................................................................ 119-126 Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater.......................................127-134
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Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
H I G H L IG H TS O F T H E J U NE 2 017 FLO RIDA FO RE CAST •
Florida’s economy in 2046: o Payroll Employment: 12,728,122 o Population: 28,971,270 o Real Gross State Product: $1.877 trillion o Nominal Gross State Product: $4.345 trillion o Retail Sales: $1.218 trillion
•
From 2017-2020 Florida’s economy, as measured by Real Gross State Product, will expand at an average annual rate of 3.1%.
•
Real Gross State Product (RGSP) will expand 3.0% in 2017. It will expand 3.7% in 2018 before growth eases to 2.9% in 2019 and then to 2.6% in 2020. Average growth during 2017-2020 is expected to be on par with our forecasted average for U.S. Real GDP growth over the same period.
•
Payroll job growth in Florida is robust and continues to outpace national job growth. Year-over-year growth should average 3.3% in 2017, 3.3% in 2018, 2.3% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020. Average job growth over the 2017-2020 period will be 0.8 percentage points faster than the national economy.
•
Labor force growth in Florida will average 2.0% from 2017-2020. Consistently strong payroll job creation has strengthened Florida’s labor market. The improved prospect of finding a job will continue to put more Floridians back on the hunt for employment as well as attract out-of-state job seekers.
•
This same labor force growth makes the task of lowering the state’s unemployment rate more challenging, but Florida’s job creation will overcome this counterweight. The unemployment rate should fall to 3.9% in 2018, 3.7% in 2019 and then to 3.8% in 2020.
•
The sectors expected to have the strongest average job growth during 2017-2020 are Construction (5.5%), Professional & Business Services (4.9%), Leisure & Hospitality (2.7%), Education & Health Services (2.4%), Financial (2.0%), and Trade, Transportation & Utilities (1.8%).
•
Housing starts will accelerate going forward, but not fast enough to ease the shortage of single-family housing in the short run. Total starts will be 135,598 in 2017, 151,409 in 2018, 157,349 in 2019 and 165,172 in 2020. House price appreciation should decelerate over this period as supply catches up with demand.
•
Real personal income growth will average 4.1% during 2017-2020, starting with 4.0% growth in 2017, rising to 5.0% growth in 2018, and decelerating for the next two years. Florida’s average growth will exceed the national rate by 1.4 percentage points over that four-year span.
•
Retail sales will grow at an average pace of over 5.0% during 2017-2020, boosted by a stronger national economy, continued strength in Florida’s labor market, and rising household wealth.
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F LO RI DA’ S E CO N O MY BY 2 0 4 6 2026
2036
2046
Total Population
23,477,700
26,197,500
28,971,270
Payroll Employment
10,057,385
11,246,867
12,728,122
$1.529
$2.531
$4.345
$1.077
$1.408
$1.887
176,668
187,210
189,573
$1.201
$1.580
$2.075
$513
$784
$1,218
Gross State Product (trillions of current dollars)
Gross State Product (trillions of 2009 dollars)
Total Housing Starts Real Personal Income (trillions of 2009 dollars)
Retail Sales (billions of current dollars)
F LORI DA’S E CO N O MY I N 2 0 4 6 A lot can happen in thirty years. I am reminded of this fact every time I look in a mirror and every year when the Institute for Economic Competitiveness puts out our 2nd quarter Florida & Metro Forecast. It is in this quarter that we do our annual thirty-year outlook for Florida’s economy.
For those who are old enough to remember, it was 1987 when President Reagan gave his “tear down this wall” speech in West Berlin. It was also the year of the worst single-day percentage decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 22.6% to close at 1,738 on what became known as Black Monday, October 19th of that year.
Real GDP was $8.1 trillion in 1987 and is expected to be near $17.1 trillion in 2017. I would have been using a typewriter and gallons of
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Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
Wite-out to write this in 1987, probably listening to U2’s “The Joshua Tree” cassette tape on a Sony Walkman. Cell phones were few and far between and were about the size of 12-inch sub from Publix. The movie Dirty Dancing was released and became an unexpected hit and subsequent cult classic. Since 1987 there have been three recessions, two financial bubbles, eight presidential elections, the stock market has hit an all-time high over 21,500, and technological and economic changes have since taken place that would have been unimaginable in 1987. So you might ask, why do we put out a 30-year forecast each year? Because nobody puts the IEC in a corner. It is a dirty business, not Dirty Dancing, trying to predict thirty years into the future, but there are
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those who must plan decades ahead. We do it for those involved in transportation planning, education, development, government, utilities, pension planning, business, site selection and anyone else who must make decisions that are based on the long run. These forecasts are meant to provide input into their decision making process.
It would be reasonable to expect that we will have three to five recessions over the next thirty years, but unreasonable to try and predict the timing of these downturns. So in the long run forecasts we do not try to incorporate cyclical fluctuations into the projections that follow. Instead we allow the forecasts to converge to trends, trends driven by the underlying fundamentals of economic growth. The result is graphs that are pretty boring as the projections converge to those trends and a predicted path for the economy that will vary significantly from the actual path the economy follows over the next three decades.
So put your Walkman on (I’m told cassettes are making a comeback) as you peruse the pages that follow. In the meantime, here are few highlights of what Florida’s economy will look like by 2046.
FLORIDA’S HOUSING MARKET Low and Falling Inventories Continue to Feed Price Appreciation The May 2017 single-family home report released by Florida Realtors portrays a market for existing housing that remains tight, fueling price appreciation that is closing in on the highs of the housing bubble. The median sales price for single-family homes increased $17,010 in May 2017, year over year, and now stands at $239,000—a year-over-year price appreciation of 1
a robust 7.7%. Price appreciation in the townhome/ condominium market continues as well, with an increase in the median sales price by $13,300 year over year, registering at $178,000 in May of this year. Inventories of single-family homes in May are down from a year ago and are now just 4.0 months, indicating an inventory balance that continues to favor sellers in the single-family market, according to the Florida Realtors report.1 Inventories of condominiums decreased from 6.1 months’ supply back in May of 2016 to 6.0 months’ this May. This indicates that the condo market has moved toward a more balanced market between buyers and sellers but slightly tilted in the buyers’ favor.
Distressed sales of single-family homes in the form of short sales are continuing to plummet year over year (-30.7%), as are foreclosure/REO sales versus May 2016 (-44.5%). Traditional sales are up 14.2% year over year versus May 2016.
Distressed sales of condos in the form of short sales are still rapidly contracting year over year as well (-44.8%), and foreclosure/REO sales are down sharply as well versus May 2016 (-47.2%). Traditional sales were up 13.7% in May 2017 when compared to May 2016.
The percentage of closed sales of single-family homes that were cash transactions stood at 26.8% in May 2017. For condos, that figure is much higher, as 54.4% of all closings were cash transactions. Both of these markets’ shares of cash transactions have fallen year over year, which points to a diminishing role of cash investors in Florida’s housing market, amid some improvement in mortgage availability year over year.2 Figure 1 depicts the monthly realtor sales of existing single-family homes as well as the 12-month moving average of these sales. This smoother moving average line levels out the seasonality and other statistical noise in monthly housing market data. Sales have been on a
According to the Florida Realtors, the benchmark for a balanced market (favoring neither buyer nor seller) is 5.5 months of inventory. Numbers above that indicate a buyers’ market, numbers below a sellers’ market. Other real estate economists suggest a 6 to 9 month inventory as being a balanced market.
2 The Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), put out by the Mortgage Bankers Association, decreased 0.2 percent to 183.0 in April 2017 from March 2017. A decline in the index indicates that lending standards have eased slightly. The index is benchmarked to 100 in March 2012. Relative to that month, mortgages in April 2017 were 83.0% more available. In 2006, the value of this same index approached 900.
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FLORIDA SUMMARY
Figure 1.
Figure 2.
Florida
Florida
Single-Family, Existing Homes
Single-Family, Existing Homes $300,000
30,000
25,000
Realtor Sales Moving Average
$250,000
20,000
$200,000
15,000
$150,000
10,000
$100,000
5,000
$50,000
Median Sales Price Moving Average
$0
0
Source: Florida Realtors
Source: Florida Realtors
strong upward path and the 12-month moving average and monthly sales have now exceeded their peak value during the housing bubble. Sales growth coming out of the bottom has been on a stronger trend than the pre-bubble housing market, but over the past year, the 12-month moving average flattened out before resuming its climb. This may be a reflection of decreasing affordability in the face of the rapid price appreciation over the past two-plus years and a depleted inventory of houses for sale.
price increases of 2015 and 2016 have eased in 2017. Still, over the past year, the 12-month moving average of median sales prices has risen by nearly $22,000.
The fundamentals of the housing market in Florida continue to strengthen. Economic and job growth in Florida are forecasted to continue to outperform the U.S. labor market and more Baby Boomers continue to reach the end of their working lives. This bodes well for continued population growth via the in-migration of retirees and job seekers to Florida. The population of Florida is also growing naturally, as birth rates exceed death rates. In addition to these sources of domestic population growth, international immigration will also feed into the state’s population growth. We expect this upward trend in sales will resume as increases in the supply of new housing in the future will help ameliorate rapid price appreciation given the improving economic and demographic foundations of demand for housing. Figure 2 displays median sales prices for single-family existing homes. Median sales prices continue to climb since bottoming out in 2011. The double-digit pace of 8
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Low inventories of existing homes for sale and sputtering housing starts growth contribute to an environment where home prices continue to rise at a rapid pace. The shortage in the single-family market will be rectified as the pace of single-family housing starts to ramp up over the next several years. Single-family housing starts in 2020 are expected to increase by 107% from 2014 levels.
GROSS STATE PRODUCT Real Gross State Product (RGSP) or real state GDP growth in Florida is expected to grow at an average pace on par with what we are forecasting for U.S. Real GDP growth over the next four years. In 2013, as the state exited the “greater recession,” Florida’s economy accelerated with a growth rate of 1.9% with rising consumer confidence, progress in the housing market recovery, population growth, and healing of the damage in the labor market; building a foundation for even faster economic growth in the state. Growth accelerated to 4.0% in 2015 but eased in 2016 to 2.7% as the national economy only grew 1.6% in that year. Florida is poised for another two-year acceleration in growth before growth eases again in 2019 and 2020.
FLORIDA SUMMARY
The improvement of the fundamentals of the state’s economy helped accelerate growth in 2015 when RGSP expanded at 4.0%, the fastest growth rate in the recovery to date before decelerating in 2016 along with the national economy. In 2017 through 2018, however, growth will accelerate again as the Trump administration’s economic policy helps to boost Florida’s economy. Growth in that two-year stretch is expected to be 3.0% and 3.7%. During 2017-2020, Florida’s RGSP is expected to grow an average of 3.1% annually. In 2019 and 2020, however, growth has been revised down as anticipated increases in interest rates work their way through the economy. This average growth of 3.1% during 2017 through 2020 is a faster pace of the average growth compared to the prior four years (when growth averaged 2.9%). This projected average rate of growth for Florida’s economy is on par with the average of our forecasted real GDP growth for the U.S. economy over the same time frame (3.1%). Housing prices have made substantial progress from the bottom of the housing crisis. During the crisis, median existing home prices fell to a low of $122,200 but now stand at $239,000. This ongoing price appreciation continues to repair the damage done to household balance sheets in Florida, but even with rapid price appreciation, it will still take a year or two to recover all the wealth lost in the housing market collapse. Housing prices plummeted from the medianprice high of $257,800 in June of 2006.
Nominal Gross State Product (NGSP) continues on track toward the $1 trillion mark and will be more than $977 billion in 2017. In 2018, Florida will finally break that $1 trillion mark with an NGSP of $1.035 trillion, then continue to climb to $1.088 trillion in 2019, before hitting $1.141 trillion in 2020.
PERSONAL INCOME, RETAIL SALES, AND AUTO SALES In 2015, real personal income growth in Florida hit 5.2% after growing 5.1% in the prior year. These two strong years of growth followed a contraction of 0.6% in 2013. Growth will ease in 2016, as personal income
growth comes in at 3.8%. From that point, personal income growth will tick up to 4.0% in 2017, before accelerating again to 5.0% in 2018 and easing back to 4.3% in 2019, then contracting to 3.2% in 2020. Florida is expected to outpace the nation in real personal income growth, averaging 0.4 percentage points higher than the national average growth for 2017 through 2020. Real personal income growth during 2017-2020 will average 4.1% in Florida. Nominal personal income will exceed $1.013 trillion in 2020, marking an increase in personal income in excess of $319 billion from its nadir in 2009.
In 2017, real disposable income growth will average 3.7%, down from the previous year’s 4.1% growth rate. Average growth in Florida during 2017-2020 will remain a healthy 4.1%, with U.S. real disposable income growth expected to average 3.7% during the same time frame.
Financial markets have been in a bull market since the low point of the financial crisis thanks in large part to the Federal Reserve Bank’s zero interest rate policy bolstered by three massive rounds of quantitative easing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to the 6,600 level in March of 2009 but then surged to an excess of 18,000 in 2015, where it has been hovering after hitting a high of 18,668. In 2016 financial markets got off to a rough start but recovered by spring. The stock market once again spent much of the time after this recovery at or near the 18,000-point mark—until the 2016 presidential election. Since Donald Trump was elected president, the stock market has set multiple record highs, with the Dow touching 21,535 at its peak to date. Whether this rally was driven by expectations of a stronger economy under the Trump administration or other factors could be debated. There is no debating that the stock market has continued to set and break through record highs since the election. For those households holding stocks and bonds directly or through retirement accounts, this bullrun has created trillions of dollars of wealth. The Fed embarked on its third interest rate hike in March of this year and did so again at their June FOMC meeting. Interest rate hikes, which are likely to Institute for Economic Competitiveness
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come at this more rapid pace going forward, will weigh on future gains in the stock market. However, faster economic growth will likely outweigh the economic drag of higher interest rates.
Home equity in Florida has not recovered as rapidly, nor as completely, as financial asset wealth, but housing prices have been climbing over the past four years. An acceleration in the rate of price appreciation in 2015 to a double-digit pace, which has eased in 2017, is creating significant gains in home equity wealth for Floridians; however, for many households in Florida, the effects of the lost home equity wealth will continue to weigh upon consumer spending through the end of 2017 and into 2018. Financial asset wealth and home equity wealth should continue to grow, boosting consumer confidence and spending and financing the retirement of even more Baby Boomers to Florida. With Florida’s strong labor market recovery sustaining its momentum, wage and salary growth that is finally materializing, and more home equity being recovered, retail spending will remain strong through 2020, with growth averaging 5.0% during 2017-2020. Consumers began to purchase light vehicles at a faster pace after the recession ended, releasing several years of pent-up demand, and continued to do so through 2016, though the pace has slowed considerably. However, sustained growth at a lower rate will be enabled by the availability of financing, in some cases interest-free, for the purchase of automobiles and light trucks, faster economic growth, and continued improvement Florida’s labor market. Vehicle registration growth in Florida exhibited that pent-up demand, growing robustly during 2010-2015 when registrations grew at a year-over-year average rate in excess of 11.4%.
The now-vented pent-up demand will be replaced by new demand fueled by faster economic growth in Florida during 2017-2020. Over this period, vehicle registration growth in Florida is expected to average a more modest 2.6%, with growth being at its peak during this time in 2017 at nearly 4.25% before dipping in 2018 to 3.54%, to 1.3% in 2019 and holding at that rate in 2020. 10
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
In 2020, Florida’s new passenger car and truck registrations will reach more than 1.497 million, rising from the 2019 projection of 1.478 million. Motor vehicle sales have been the strongest component of consumer spending over the past several years. This growth decelerated in 2016, but the pro-growth policy of the new presidential administration will keep this sector moving forward, albeit in a lower gear. This will extend the streak of rising registrations to eleven years, carrying it through to the end of our current forecast horizon.
EMPLOYMENT The pace of Florida’s labor market recovery continues to exceed the recovery of the national job market. Our outlook for Florida is that this will continue to be the case through at least 2020, but this outpacing will narrow since higher levels of job growth are expected nationally.
Payroll job growth was robust in 2015 at 3.6%. Most of that momentum carried over into 2016, though the pace has eased slightly. Growth decelerated slightly last year to 3.5%, before it is expected to ease to 3.3% in 2017, 3.3% in 2018, 2.3% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020. Although job growth is expected to decelerate through our short-run forecast horizon, Florida will continue to outpace national job growth over the entire forecast horizon (2017-2020) by an average of 0.8 percentage points.
The Construction sector was shattered by the bursting of the housing bubble, with total job losses at just under 347,000. It is expected to be the fastest sector for job growth among all industrial sectors in Florida’s economy through the end of our 2020 forecast horizon. While the rate of growth in the Construction sector remains strong, supported by anticipated infrastructure spending by the Trump administration, the pace of forecasted growth will ease somewhat going forward as higher interest rates driven by Fed tightening will create a bit of a headwind for the housing sector. Construction job growth is expected to decelerate slightly over the upcoming year but will remain strong, as housing starts continue to grow in an environment that still features significant price appreciation for
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existing single-family homes. Despite the episodic slowing in new home construction growth, growth rates in housing starts over the forecast horizon will support construction job growth of 7.6% in 2017, before decelerating to 6.7% in 2018, easing to 4.6% in 2019 and further to 3.1% in 2020. Average annual job growth during 2017-2020 will be 5.5%. Employment will average 585,647 in 2020—a level that is 96,478 fewer jobs than the 2006 peak employment in the Construction sector. In Florida, the average salary for construction jobs is $51,408.
The Professional and Business Services sector will be the second fastest growing sector in the state on average through 2020. Job growth in this sector is expected to be strong, averaging 4.9% during 2017-2020. Job growth in this sector over the past three years averaged 4.8%, but growth will be slightly faster over the next four years. Job growth will ease in 2017 to 4.8% after growing 7.8% in 2016, before accelerating back to 7.8% in 2018. Growth in this sector will ease to 4.5% in 2019 before easing further to 2.4% in 2020.
The Professional and Business Services sector is comprised primarily of white-collar service providing businesses. The sector includes accounting firms, financial management companies, advertising agencies, computer systems design firms, law firms, architectural and engineering companies, and temporary employment agencies. Average salaries for this sector in Florida are near $62,1923. The Professional and Business Services sector in Florida recovered very quickly from the “Greater Recession” and was the first to recover all its payroll jobs lost during the recession and will continue to perform strongly through 2020. The Information sector in Florida added jobs for the first time in eight years in 2013 with job growth of 0.4%. Growth then accelerated to 1.5% in 2014 before the sector began to lose momentum once again in 2015. The Information sector is a mix of hightech sectors such as computer programming and
3 According to the most recent Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages: http://floridajobs.org/labor-market-information/ data-center/statistical-programs/quarterly-census-of employment-and-wages
software development, both sources of growth, but the sector is weighed down by legacy media outlets including newspapers and magazines, which continue to struggle with structural changes in the gathering and dissemination of information and who pays for it. Sources of growth within this sector in Florida, such as software development, data processing and hosting, wireless telecommunications, and content creation, are beginning to offset the ongoing loss of jobs in traditional media and publishing. Even so, the pace of job growth when it returns will remain muted.
Growth finally turned positive in 2013 and growth will stay in this territory through 2020. Job growth is expected to be 0.7% in 2017, 1.8% in 2018, 1.1% in 2019 before easing to 0.4% in 2020. The projected growth path implies an average growth rate of 1.0% during 2017-2020. The Education and Health Services sector in Florida grew consistently even during the worst of the recession. Demand from the state’s larger share of the population of older residents, who have a higher demand for health services, have supported this growth. The future replacement of the Affordable Care Act is still being hashed out in Congress. This creates a cloud of uncertainty over the health sector but despite this uncertainty job growth will continue, though at a diminished rate. During 2017-2020, employment in this sector is expected to continue to expand at an average rate of 2.4%. In Florida, average salaries in this sector stand at $49,760.
Manufacturing employment expanded in Florida at an average rate of 3.6% in 2016, which was the best growth rate in more than 16 years; 2017 should see an easing but still respectable growth. The economic environment for the manufacturing sector is becoming more unfriendly as global economic environments remain tenuous, trade agreements are in flux and the U.S. dollar continues to be strong. The weakening of economic growth abroad, including a slowdown in China, persistent weak growth in Europe, Brexit and its aftermath, and the incipient recovery from a historic recession in Brazil, have all fed into the current global economic environment. The
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Trump Administration’s efforts to retain and bring back manufacturing jobs via trade policy may or may not have a significant impact on this sector. These efforts could yield a positive outcome in the end, but in the meantime create a higher level of uncertainty regarding the outlook for the sector.
These developments will eventually weigh on the rate of job growth in the manufacturing sector, but in Florida in 2017, job growth will average 2.7%.
We are looking at job growth of 1.2% in manufacturing for 2018, followed by a slight acceleration to 1.3% in 2019 with a further slowing of growth in 2020 when manufacturing employment will expand at an average rate of 1.1%. Average job growth during 20172020 with thus come in at 1.6%. The State and Local Government sector in Florida are enjoying improved revenue flows, though not back to the windfall levels of the housing bubble. As housing prices continue to climb; property tax revenue is rising as well. Despite this improvement, revenues for local governments are still below their peaks in the housing boom, even in the fastest growing housing markets around the state. Government budget shortfalls led to job losses in this sector that persisted for six years, from 2009 through 2014. Despite growing tax revenues, the specter of that prolonged budgetary crisis has kept spending growth modest and employment growth subdued.
As Florida’s population and economy continue to grow, the demand for state and local government services will grow as well. To meet this demand, growth in state and local government employment will be necessary, but will not rise to the levels seen during the housing boom. Average job growth in State and Local Government during 2017-2020 will be 1.2%, with annual growth rising to 1.6% in 2019 before easing to 1.1% in 2020. The 2019 growth rate is the expected to be the fastest since before the recession. On the other hand, the outlook for Federal Government employment growth in Florida will begin to worsen over the near term forecast horizon. Average job growth in the Federal Government sector in Florida
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will average -0.3% with growth turning negative in 2017 and remaining in negative territory until the temporary hiring surge during the census year in 2020. Any long-term solution to our federal deficit and debt problems will involve additional revenue, but ultimately cuts in discretionary federal spending will be needed as entitlement programs continue to swell, consuming an increasing piece of the federal revenue pie. The proposed fiscal policies of the Trump administration—large infrastructure spending coupled with tax cuts—will exacerbate the national debt situation over the next four years.
As the Federal Reserve begins to move more quickly with interest rate hikes, the burden of servicing a national debt that is currently more than $19.95 trillion and poised to go higher will require a larger share of federal tax revenue. The pain of running four years of trillion-dollar deficits has been dampened by historically low-interest rates on Treasury Bonds, but that pain is going to intensify as Treasury rates climb along with the Fed’s increases in the federal fund’s rate, higher rates of inflation and a Trump administration reflates annual budget deficits.
UNEMPLOYMENT The unemployment rate in Florida has plunged from its recession-driven peak level of 11.2% in January 2010 and stands at 4.3% as of May 2017. After five years well above the national rate of unemployment, Florida’s May 2017 unemployment rate is at par with the national unemployment rate.
Florida’s labor force participation rate in May 2017 stood at 60.1%, which is up from 59.0% one year earlier. The national labor force participation rate stood at 62.7% in May 2017, which is down 0.1 points from May 2016. This is the lowest level for the national labor force participation rate since February of 1978 and is down 3.3 percentage points from the start of the recession. The labor force participation rate is calculated as the percentage of the population aged 16 and older who are counted as participating in the labor force. The number of retirees in that population, who are obviously older
FLORIDA SUMMARY
than sixteen, but who no longer are active in the labor force, push down the overall labor force participation rate.
The relatively higher share of the population in Florida who are in retirement explains why the state’s labor force participation rate is lower than the national rate and the continued migration of retirees to the Sunshine State should weigh on the participation rate. In May 2016, Florida’s population over the age of sixteen grew by 310,000 year over year, while its labor force grew by 367,000. We are forecasting solid economic growth in Florida over the next several years as well as continued growth in payroll jobs. This faster economic and job growth will generate a more rapidly growing labor force, making additional progress in reducing the unemployment rate increasingly challenging. After 2016’s growth of 2.1%, we expect the labor force to continue to grow near this level during 2017-2020 at an average rate of 2.0%, despite the downward pressure from retiree migration. Going forward, job seekers will be encouraged by the robust payroll job growth in the state and become motivated to enter or reenter Florida’s labor force. This will result in slower declines in the unemployment rate, but this will not stop the downward trend in unemployment rates over the forecast horizon.
the national rate of U-6 averaged 9.5% over that same time period.
U-6 unemployment in Florida is well down from its average readings of 12.8% in 2014, 14.3% in 2013, 16% in 2012, 17.6% in 2011, and down 9.0 percentage points from its peak average rate of 19.3% in 2010 (the nation’s U-6 averaged 16.7% in 2010).
The employer mandates of the Affordable Care Act likely caused the levels of underemployment to grow. Employer and worker responses to the full/part-time distinction and the disincentives to full-time work resulting from the law will be removed by the current proposal to repeal the law. This would have a downward effect on the levels of U-6 nationally and in Florida.
Specifically, analysis of how U-6 behaves relative to the headline unemployment rate (U-3) will continue to provide important information necessary to fully understand the full impact of that healthcare law on the labor market. The gap between these two measures of unemployment remains historically large. The spread between U-6 and U-3 at the national level is hovering at 5.2 percentage points, while that gap is 6.0 percentage points in Florida.
Nationally, and in Florida, the level of workers who are working part-time but not by choice, and workers marginally attached to the labor force—defined as workers who are neither working nor currently looking for work, but indicate that they want and are available for a job, and have looked for work in the past 12 months—remain elevated. When adding these workers and discouraged workers—defined as workers who are currently not working and did not look for a job in the four weeks preceding the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly survey of households—to the headline unemployment figure, U-3, we get the broadest measure of unemployment estimated by the BLS, known as U-6.
Looking at U-6, we see a labor market that is still deeply scarred, as U-6 in Florida averaged 10.3% during the 2nd quarter 2016 through the 1st quarter of 2017, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Meanwhile,
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F lorida T ables
Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
691.4
728.1
773.3
793.1
798.9
Florida (%Ch)
-5.9
5.3
6.2
2.6
0.7
U.S.(%Ch)
-3.2
3.2
6.2
5.0
693.5
724.4
749.3
Florida (%Ch)
-5.0
4.5
U.S.(%Ch)
-3.2
1.5
639.3
Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch)
2014
2015
2016
2017
853.3
900.6
944.4
997.9
6.8
5.6
4.9
5.7
1.2
5.2
4.4
3.5
4.9
755.3
750.8
789.3
830.6
862.3
896.5
3.5
0.8
-0.6
5.1
5.2
3.8
4.0
3.7
3.0
-0.2
3.7
4.0
2.4
3.5
666.3
681.8
685.2
673.7
705.5
738.1
768.5
796.8
-2.7
4.2
2.3
0.5
-1.7
4.7
4.6
4.1
3.7
-0.4
1.0
2.5
3.1
-1.4
3.5
3.5
2.7
3.3
721.8
735.1
741.5
764.1
793.1
833.4
888.1
928.8
977.0
Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)
Personal Income (Bil. 2009$)
Disp. Income (Bil. 2009$)
GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch)
-3.5
1.9
0.9
3.1
3.8
5.1
6.6
4.6
5.2
721.8
727.7
723.3
729.4
743.1
764.7
795.0
816.4
841.2
(%Ch)
-5.5
0.8
-0.6
0.8
1.9
2.9
4.0
2.7
3.0
Employment
-5.1
0.6
2.1
2.4
2.1
2.3
1.6
2.5
3.3
Labor Force
-0.9
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
1.3
0.7
2.1
3.0
FL Unemployment Rate (%)
10.5
10.9
9.8
8.4
7.1
6.2
5.3
4.9
4.4
9.3
9.6
8.9
8.1
7.4
6.2
5.3
4.9
4.5
GSP (Bil. 2009$)
Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)
U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)
Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S.
-4.3
-0.7
1.2
1.7
1.6
1.9
2.1
1.8
2.1
Florida
-6.3
-0.8
1.1
2.0
2.5
3.2
3.6
3.5
3.3
Mining
-11.5
-0.5
4.0
-0.3
0.5
0.9
1.9
-1.1
1.3
Construction
-23.1
-11.4
-4.3
2.0
6.9
8.6
8.8
9.5
7.6
Manufacturing
-12.7
-4.5
1.1
1.6
1.5
3.0
3.4
3.6
2.7
Nondurable Goods
-10.0
-3.6
0.8
1.1
-0.2
1.2
1.5
4.0
0.9
Durable Goods
-14.0
-5.0
1.3
1.8
2.5
3.8
4.3
3.4
3.6
Trans. Warehs. & Utility
-6.6
-2.0
3.7
2.1
2.7
3.2
4.7
4.3
2.2
Wholesale Trade
-7.9
-2.8
-0.3
1.8
1.0
2.0
2.3
1.3
3.1
Retail Trade
-6.6
0.2
2.2
2.4
2.7
3.8
3.7
2.1
2.7
Financial Activities
-7.3
-1.9
1.8
2.7
2.7
1.7
2.4
2.4
2.5
Prof. and Business Services
-8.2
1.3
3.0
3.7
4.0
4.2
5.0
5.1
4.8
1.2
1.9
1.9
1.7
1.7
2.7
3.6
3.6
3.3
Leisure & Hospitality
-4.5
0.5
2.8
4.2
4.0
4.6
4.5
3.6
3.8
Information
-8.5
-4.6
-1.0
-1.5
0.4
1.5
0.3
0.3
0.7
2.3
7.2
-5.4
-0.9
-0.6
-0.5
2.0
2.6
-0.9
-1.5
-1.2
-1.1
-1.4
-0.3
-0.1
0.5
1.1
0.9
Edu & Health Services
Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.
Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)
18682.8 18884.4 19127.8 19373.3 19624.7 19936.4 20291.6 20656.5 21001.2
0.8
1.1
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.6
1.8
1.8
1.7
110.0
180.0
207.7
207.2
237.9
299.0
339.9
340.7
312.7
(%Ch)
46.6
80.8
18.9
-0.2
14.8
26.3
14.6
0.3
-8.2
Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)
33.6
37.9
41.3
59.2
80.6
79.7
103.1
112.4
135.6
Housing Starts Single Family (thous)
26.7
31.6
31.7
42.5
54.6
56.0
68.2
77.3
84.4
6.9
6.4
9.6
16.8
26.0
23.8
34.9
35.1
51.2
-0.2
1.2
3.1
0.3
1.7
2.4
Net Migration (thous)
Housing
Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)
Consumer Prices (%Ch) 14
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
1.9
1.6
1.8
F lorida T ables
Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
1061.0
1125.5
1187.1
1250.6
1315.7
Florida (%Ch)
6.3
6.1
5.5
5.4
5.2
U.S.(%Ch)
5.6
5.5
5.1
4.9
941.6
982.1
1013.8
Florida (%Ch)
5.0
4.3
U.S.(%Ch)
4.5
3.8
840.7
Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch)
2023
2024
2025
2026
1383.9
1454.2
1525.2
1596.7
5.2
5.1
4.9
4.7
4.8
4.8
4.9
4.7
4.6
1044.8
1075.2
1106.5
1138.5
1170.0
1201.0
3.2
3.1
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.6
3.1
2.8
2.7
2.8
2.9
2.7
2.5
875.5
902.4
930.5
956.6
983.2
1010.8
1038.8
1066.5
5.5
4.1
3.1
3.1
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.7
4.8
3.6
3.0
2.9
2.6
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.5
1035.7
1088.2
1142.0
1199.0
1260.7
1326.0
1393.0
1459.9
1529.4
Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)
Personal Income (Bil. 2009$)
Disp. Income (Bil. 2009$)
GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch)
6.0
5.1
4.9
5.0
5.1
5.2
5.1
4.8
4.8
872.3
897.2
921.0
945.2
971.9
999.1
1026.1
1051.1
1077.5
(%Ch)
3.7
2.9
2.6
2.6
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.4
2.5
Employment
2.2
1.8
1.4
0.9
0.9
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.8
Labor Force
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.1
1.0
1.1
0.9
0.8
0.9
FL Unemployment Rate (%)
3.9
3.7
3.8
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.1
U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)
4.1
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.3
0.7
GSP (Bil. 2009$)
Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)
Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S.
2.3
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
Florida
3.3
2.3
1.7
1.4
1.5
1.4
1.1
1.2
1.2
Mining
0.5
-1.3
-1.0
-0.5
-0.1
0.0
-0.9
-1.3
-1.3
Construction
6.7
4.6
3.1
3.9
4.0
3.5
2.9
2.4
1.3
Manufacturing
1.2
1.3
1.1
0.5
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.3
-0.3
0.4
0.4
-0.2
-0.4
-0.3
-0.4
-0.6
-0.5
Durable Goods
2.0
1.8
1.4
0.9
0.9
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.6
Trans. Warehs. & Utility
3.1
1.3
0.8
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.8
0.8
Wholesale Trade
2.9
1.7
1.8
1.2
1.0
0.9
0.7
0.5
0.2
Retail Trade
2.4
1.3
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.6
0.6
Financial Activities
3.1
1.7
0.8
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.1
1.1
Prof. and Business Services
7.8
4.5
2.4
3.0
4.0
3.9
2.9
2.9
3.3
Edu & Health Services
2.1
2.0
2.2
1.4
1.1
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.5
Leisure & Hospitality
3.0
2.3
1.9
1.6
0.8
0.3
0.2
0.0
0.0
Information
1.8
1.1
0.4
0.9
1.3
1.6
1.3
0.9
1.0
-3.2
-1.5
4.4
-4.8
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.2
1.2
1.6
1.1
0.7
0.9
0.9
0.7
0.6
0.4
Nondurable Goods
Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.
Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)
21316.6 21604.1 21874.8 22140.9 22406.0 22672.5 22940.0 23208.6 23477.7
1.5
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
283.7
256.7
245.4
241.3
240.6
241.2
241.7
242.3
242.7
-9.3
-9.5
-4.3
-1.7
-0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
151.4
157.3
165.2
173.5
177.5
180.8
183.8
180.0
176.7
Housing Starts Single Family (thous)
94.9
98.9
102.4
107.1
109.4
111.4
114.2
110.3
106.3
Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)
56.5
58.4
62.8
66.4
68.1
69.3
69.6
69.6
70.4
1.7
2.2
2.4
2.2
2.3
2.3
Net Migration (thous) (%Ch)
Housing Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)
Consumer Prices (%Ch)
2.3
2.4
2.1
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
15
F lorida T ables
Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
1670.2
1749.3
1838.5
1930.6
2030.2
2134.5
Florida (%Ch)
4.6
4.7
5.1
5.0
5.2
5.1
U.S.(%Ch)
4.5
4.7
4.9
4.9
4.9
1232.6
1264.9
1301.1
1337.0
Florida (%Ch)
2.6
2.6
2.9
U.S.(%Ch)
2.4
2.5
2.7
1094.1
1122.1
Florida (%Ch)
2.6
U.S.(%Ch)
2.4 1600.2
2033
2034
2035
2036
2242.0
2357.2
2477.5
2601.9
5.0
5.1
5.1
5.0
4.7
4.7
4.9
5.0
4.9
1375.8
1415.3
1454.5
1496.1
1538.2
1580.3
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.8
2.8
2.6
1153.2
1183.0
1215.0
1248.3
1281.3
1315.1
1349.4
1383.7
2.6
2.8
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.5
1677.6
1766.4
1856.6
1957.7
2059.0
2168.4
2284.7
2403.1
2532.0
Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)
Personal Income (Bil. 2009$)
Disp. Income (Bil. 2009$)
GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch)
4.6
4.8
5.3
5.1
5.4
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.2
5.4
1104.5
1132.4
1164.3
1194.9
1230.1
1262.9
1298.0
1334.8
1370.2
1408.7
(%Ch)
2.5
2.5
2.8
2.6
2.9
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.8
Employment
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.2
Labor Force
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
FL Unemployment Rate (%)
4.3
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)
4.4
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
0.8
GSP (Bil. 2009$)
Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)
Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S.
0.6
0.4
0.6
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.8
Florida
1.0
0.9
1.1
1.1
1.4
1.4
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.1
-1.1
-0.8
-0.5
-0.3
0.1
0.4
-0.1
-0.5
-0.5
-0.4
Mining Construction
0.9
0.6
1.9
2.4
3.1
2.4
2.3
2.8
2.4
2.3
Manufacturing
0.1
-0.6
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.9
-0.9
-0.6
-0.4
-0.3 -0.9
-0.6
-1.0
-1.0
-1.0
-1.0
-1.0
-1.1
-0.9
-0.9
Durable Goods
Nondurable Goods
0.3
-0.5
-0.6
-0.5
-0.6
-0.9
-0.9
-0.5
-0.2
0.0
Trans. Warehs. & Utility
0.2
-0.2
0.2
-0.2
0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.6
-0.8
-0.9
Wholesale Trade
0.0
-0.6
-0.5
-0.3
0.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.3
-0.4
-0.3
Retail Trade
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.6
1.1
0.9
0.9
0.8
1.2
1.1
Financial Activities
0.9
0.6
0.6
0.9
1.1
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
Prof. and Business Services
2.4
2.4
2.5
1.8
2.7
3.0
1.9
1.5
1.7
2.0
Edu & Health Services
1.5
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.5
1.6
1.3
1.1
1.0
1.0
Leisure & Hospitality
0.3
0.5
0.6
0.6
1.0
0.9
1.0
0.8
1.1
1.0
Information
1.0
1.3
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.0
Federal Gov't.
0.2
1.6
2.2
8.5
-2.2
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.1
State & Local Gov't.
0.4
0.4
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.8
0.7
0.7
Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)
23747.6 24018.0 24289.1 24560.8 24833.0 25105.2 25377.6 25650.6 25923.8 26197.5
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
243.6
244.4
245.2
246.1
246.6
246.7
247.2
247.5
247.4
247.9
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.2
Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)
173.3
170.8
175.1
177.1
179.6
173.9
178.8
185.2
186.4
187.2
Housing Starts Single Family (thous)
102.8
100.2
103.0
103.2
104.6
97.6
101.4
106.3
106.3
107.7
70.5
70.6
72.1
74.0
75.0
76.3
77.4
78.9
80.1
79.5
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
Net Migration (thous) (%Ch)
Housing
Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)
Consumer Prices (%Ch) 16
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
2.4
2.4
F lorida T ables
Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2729.1
2866.0
3013.0
3167.4
3330.2
3497.8
Florida (%Ch)
4.9
5.0
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.0
U.S.(%Ch)
4.8
4.8
4.9
5.0
4.9
1621.4
1665.4
1712.2
1760.3
Florida (%Ch)
2.6
2.7
2.8
U.S.(%Ch)
2.6
2.6
2.7
1417.4
1453.4
Florida (%Ch)
2.4
U.S.(%Ch)
2.4 2667.4
2043
2044
2045
2046
3675.2
3865.9
4067.0
4274.1
5.1
5.2
5.2
5.1
4.9
4.9
5.0
4.9
4.9
1809.9
1858.9
1909.8
1964.0
2020.1
2075.4
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.9
2.7
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.6
1491.7
1530.9
1571.3
1610.8
1651.5
1694.6
1739.0
1782.4
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.4
2.4
2811.2
2971.7
3136.2
3309.0
3492.2
3687.8
3898.4
4114.9
4345.3
Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)
Personal Income (Bil. 2009$)
Disp. Income (Bil. 2009$)
GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch)
5.3
5.4
5.7
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.7
5.6
5.6
1448.5
1489.9
1537.0
1583.1
1629.6
1677.7
1727.8
1780.8
1832.7
1887.0
(%Ch)
2.8
2.9
3.2
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.1
2.9
3.0
Employment
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
Labor Force
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.1
FL Unemployment Rate (%)
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
0.8
GSP (Bil. 2009$)
Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)
Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S.
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
Florida
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.4
1.3
-0.5
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
-1.3
-1.4
-1.5
-1.7
-1.8
-1.8
Mining Construction Manufacturing
2.0
1.7
2.1
1.8
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.9
2.7
2.3
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
-0.5
-0.5
-0.6
-0.8
-1.2
Nondurable Goods
-0.9
-1.0
-1.0
-1.0
-0.8
-0.8
-0.8
-1.0
-1.1
-1.2
Durable Goods
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
-0.6
-1.2
Trans. Warehs. & Utility
-1.3
-1.1
-1.1
-0.9
-1.0
-0.9
-0.9
-0.9
-0.8
-0.7
Wholesale Trade
-0.5
-0.4
-0.4
0.1
0.4
0.8
1.1
1.3
1.4
1.5
Retail Trade
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.2
0.8
1.1
1.0
0.8
0.8
Financial Activities
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.1
Prof. and Business Services
1.6
1.5
1.8
2.0
2.3
2.3
2.6
2.8
2.9
2.5
Edu & Health Services
0.8
1.0
1.0
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.1
1.1
1.0
Leisure & Hospitality
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.0
1.1
0.8
1.0
0.8
0.7
0.7
Information
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.8
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.1
1.1
Federal Gov't.
2.0
1.9
1.8
5.5
-1.7
2.1
1.5
2.0
1.9
1.8
State & Local Gov't.
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)
26472.0 26747.0 27022.7 27299.0 27575.7 27853.1 28131.4 28410.5 28690.4 28971.3
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
248.0
248.0
248.3
248.1
248.1
248.3
248.5
248.6
248.7
249.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)
184.7
182.7
184.0
183.1
182.5
182.4
184.9
188.6
189.4
189.6
Housing Starts Single Family (thous)
106.5
105.0
106.2
105.0
105.5
106.0
108.8
112.8
113.5
113.9
78.2
77.7
77.8
78.1
77.0
76.4
76.1
75.8
75.8
75.6
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.7
2.8
Net Migration (thous) (%Ch)
Housing
Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)
Consumer Prices (%Ch)
2.7
2.8
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
17
F lorida T ables Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2017Q2
2017Q3
2017Q4
2018Q1
2018Q2
2018Q3
2018Q4
2019Q1
2019Q2
2019Q3
2019Q4
2020Q1
Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)
990.49 1005.7 1020.5 1037.1 1052.9 1068.9 1085.1 1102.8
1118 1133.4 1147.8 1163.6
Florida (%Ch)
5.6
5.5
6.0
6.4
6.3
6.3
6.3
6.3
6.2
6.0
5.8
5.5
U.S.(%Ch)
4.7
5.0
5.4
5.7
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.3
5.2
Personal Income (Bil. 2009$)
892.41 901.88 912.37 925.16
936.5 947.02 957.76 969.31 978.21 986.78
994 1002.1
Florida (%Ch)
4.0
3.8
4.4
5.2
4.9
5.0
5.0
4.8
4.5
4.2
3.8
3.4
U.S.(%Ch)
3.3
3.6
4.4
4.7
4.5
4.4
4.3
4.1
3.9
3.8
3.5
3.2
Disp. Income (Bil. 2009$)
793.64 801.48 809.82 826.29
836.5 845.46 854.62 864.39 872.18
879.7 885.88 892.76
Florida(%Ch)
3.8
3.6
4.0
5.6
5.4
5.5
5.5
4.6
4.3
4.0
3.7
3.3
U.S.(%Ch)
3.1
3.4
4.0
5.0
4.8
4.8
4.7
3.9
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.2
GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2009$)
968.64 984.43 999.67 1015.2 1029.1 1042.8 1055.7 1069.7 1081.6 1094.4 5.0
5.4
836.98 845.35
5.7
4.9
4.8
853.4 862.06 869.11 875.84 882.18 888.97 894.27 900.05 905.52
911.9
3.3
6.3 4.0
6.2 3.8
5.9
5.6
3.6
5.4
3.4
3.1
5.1
(%Ch)
3.0
3.1
2.9
Employment
3.5
3.4
3.3
2.5
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.8
Labor Force
3.3
3.1
2.7
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.6
FL Unemployment Rate (%)
4.4
4.3
4.1
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.7
U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)
4.5
4.5
4.3
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.0
3.9
4.9
1107 1121.2
2.8
2.6
2.6
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.6
1.5
1.6
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.8
3.9
3.9
3.9
4.0
1.3
Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)
Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S.
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.5
Florida
3.2
3.2
3.5
3.7
3.5
3.1
2.8
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.1
1.8
Mining
0.6
2.9
2.8
2.6
0.5
-0.3
-0.9
-1.3
-1.3
-1.3
-1.2
-1.1
Construction
7.3
7.0
8.1
6.7
6.9
7.0
6.2
5.5
4.9
4.2
3.7
3.3
Manufacturing
3.0
2.4
2.1
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.3
Nondurable Goods
1.3
0.1
0.1
-0.3
-0.5
-0.4
-0.2
0.1
0.3
0.6
0.7
0.7
Durable Goods
3.8
3.5
3.0
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.8
1.7
1.5
Trans. Warehs. & Utility
2.2
2.4
2.5
3.8
3.5
2.9
2.2
1.5
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.0
Wholesale Trade
2.4
3.1
4.8
3.5
3.2
2.7
2.1
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.9
Retail Trade
2.9
2.4
2.6
2.9
2.5
2.2
1.9
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.2
0.9
Financial Activities
2.4
2.8
2.8
3.5
3.3
3.0
2.6
2.1
1.8
1.6
1.3
1.0
Prof. and Business Services
3.8
4.8
6.7
8.2
8.9
7.7
6.4
5.5
4.8
4.1
3.8
2.7
Edu & Health Services
3.4
3.3
2.8
2.6
2.4
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.2
2.2
Leisure & Hospitality
3.9
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.1
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.1
Information
0.6
1.0
1.1
2.3
2.0
1.7
1.3
1.0
0.9
1.3
1.1
0.7
Federal Gov't.
0.4
-2.0
-4.1
-4.3
-3.5
-2.9
-2.2
-1.9
-1.6
-1.3
-1.0
-1.9
State & Local Gov't.
0.9
0.5
1.1
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.3
1.4
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.4
Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)
20803.8 20882.7 20962.0 21041.6 21121.6 21201.9 21282.3 21362.7 21443.2 21523.7 21604.2 21684.8
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
65.9
65.9
65.9
66.0
66.1
66.3
66.3
66.3
66.3
66.2
66.2
66.2
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
132.0
138.4
144.0
148.5
152.7
151.3
153.1
154.4
157.4
158.0
159.6
161.5
Housing Starts Single Family (thous)
82.4
85.2
88.3
91.4
94.3
96.4
97.3
98.0
98.4
99.4
99.8
100.7
Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)
49.6
53.1
55.7
57.1
58.3
54.9
55.8
56.3
59.0
58.6
59.8
60.9
2.5
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.4
2.4
Net Migration (thous) (%Ch)
Housing Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)
Consumer Prices (%Ch) *Quarterly at an annual rate 18
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
1.7
1.8
F lorida T ables
Table 3. Employment Quarterly*
2017Q2
2017Q3
2017Q4
2018Q1
2018Q2
2018Q3
2018Q4
2019Q1
2019Q2
2019Q3
2019Q4
2020Q1
Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm
8615.7 8701.9 8777.2 8863.5 8921.2 8975.8 9021.7 9080.8 9126.6 9173.9 9211.1 9241.2
Manufacturing
364.8
365.5
366.3
367.9
369.1
370.0
371.2
372.7
373.9
375.3
376.3
377.3
Durable Goods
249.0
249.9
250.9
252.5
253.9
254.8
256.0
257.3
258.3
259.4
260.2
261.2
Wood Products
14.2
14.3
14.4
14.5
14.6
14.7
14.9
15.2
15.4
15.6
15.9
16.0
Computer & Electronics
41.8
41.9
42.0
42.2
42.4
42.5
42.7
42.7
42.6
42.6
42.6
42.7
Transportation Equipment
41.5
41.4
41.3
41.4
41.6
41.6
41.6
41.6
41.7
41.8
41.9
42.3
115.8
115.6
115.4
115.3
115.2
115.2
115.2
115.4
115.6
115.9
116.1
116.2
31.9
32.0
32.0
32.1
32.2
32.3
32.3
32.5
32.6
32.8
32.9
32.9
Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining
8250.9 8336.4 8410.9 8495.6 8552.1 8605.8 8650.5 8708.2 8752.7 8798.6 8834.8 8863.8 5.8
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.7
Construction
504.5
512.4
521.9
531.1
539.4
548.0
554.5
560.4
565.6
570.8
575.1
578.9
Trans. Warehs. & Utility
283.3
285.7
288.3
291.1
293.0
294.0
294.6
295.5
296.4
297.4
298.2
298.6
Wholesale Trade
347.9
351.3
354.5
357.4
359.1
360.7
362.0
363.6
365.0
366.8
368.1
370.3
Retail Trade Information Prof. & Bus. Services
1130.0 1137.2 1142.0 1153.8 1158.0 1162.0 1164.0 1169.9 1172.5 1177.2 1178.5 1179.8 137.7
137.9
139.0
139.9
140.4
140.3
140.8
141.3
141.7
142.2
142.3
142.3
1326.1 1358.5 1390.1 1420.5 1443.6 1463.7 1478.7 1499.1 1512.2 1523.4 1534.5 1539.2
Admin. & Support
680.2
706.2
731.9
755.8
773.6
788.5
799.1
814.0
822.7
829.7
837.9
840.0
Prof. Sci & Tech
541.0
546.9
552.6
558.7
563.7
568.5
572.7
578.1
582.3
586.2
589.0
591.2
Mgmt. of Co.
104.9
105.4
105.6
106.0
106.3
106.6
106.9
107.0
107.2
107.4
107.6
108.0
Financial Activities
558.2
562.9
567.4
573.1
576.4
579.6
582.4
585.0
587.0
588.7
590.2
591.1
Real Estate & Rent
186.2
187.2
188.2
189.5
190.6
191.5
192.5
193.5
194.3
195.3
196.1
196.9
Fin. & Insurance
371.9
375.7
379.3
383.5
385.9
388.1
389.8
391.5
392.7
393.4
394.0
394.2
Edu. & Health Service Education Services
1279.2 1290.5 1296.4 1304.4 1309.3 1314.2 1319.2 1326.7 1333.8 1341.2 1347.9 1356.2 161.9
161.1
160.1
159.8
159.5
159.4
159.3
159.1
158.6
158.1
157.3
156.9
Health Services
1117.2 1129.4 1136.3 1144.6 1149.8 1154.7 1159.9 1167.5 1175.2 1183.1 1190.5 1199.3
Leisure & Hospitality
1214.4 1227.5 1236.9 1247.0 1252.6 1259.2 1266.1 1273.9 1281.0 1289.6 1295.5 1300.9
Other Services Government
362.2
363.5
364.5
366.0
367.1
368.2
369.1
370.2
370.7
371.2
371.3
372.4
1101.6 1103.1 1103.9 1105.6 1107.2 1110.2 1113.3 1116.9 1120.9 1124.4 1127.5 1128.5
Federal Gov't.
136.9
135.2
133.6
132.8
132.1
131.4
130.6
130.3
130.0
129.7
129.3
127.8
State & Local Gov't
964.7
967.8
970.3
972.8
975.1
978.9
982.7
986.6
990.9
994.7
998.2 1000.7
*Quarterly at an annual rate
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
19
F lorida T ables
Table 4. Employment Annual 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm
7230.6
7172.6
7252.3
7396.7
7581.6
7823.4
8106.0
8387.6
8661.2
Manufacturing
324.0
309.0
312.5
317.4
322.3
331.8
343.1
355.4
365.0
Durable Goods
214.5
203.6
206.1
209.9
215.0
223.2
232.8
240.8
249.4
9.1
8.4
8.6
8.8
10.4
11.3
12.6
13.5
14.2
44.667
42.958
42.975
42.458
40.992
40.7
41.1
41.4
41.878
34.9
33.8
34.2
35.4
36.4
37.5
39.4
40.9
41.4
109.5
105.5
106.3
107.5
107.3
108.6
110.2
114.6
115.6
27.9
27.5
28.7
29.2
29.5
29.8
30.3
31.4
31.9
6906.6
6863.6
6939.8
7079.3
7259.3
7491.5
7763.0
8032.2
8296.1
5.5
5.4
5.7
5.6
5.7
5.7
5.8
5.8
5.8
396.72
350.62
335.51
342.06
365.87
397.32
432.37
473.3
509.19
Trans. Warehs. & Utility
231.8
227.1
235.4
240.5
246.9
254.8
266.7
278.2
284.4
Wholesale Trade
322.4
313.2
312.1
317.9
320.9
327.5
334.8
339.3
349.8
Retail Trade
932.3
934.4
955.4
978.3
1004.8
1043.0
1081.1
1103.4
1132.6
Information
143.8
137.1
135.7
133.6
134.2
136.1
136.6
136.9
137.8
Prof. & Bus. Services
993.2
1005.9
1036.0
1074.4
1117.5
1164.3
1222.2
1285.0
1346.8
Admin. & Support
481.8
494.3
516.8
538.0
558.9
585.0
618.9
654.7
697.8
Prof. Sci & Tech
431.5
432.4
437.8
451.0
467.4
485.1
506.6
529.9
544.1
80.0
79.1
81.4
85.4
91.2
94.2
96.7
100.4
104.9
Financial Activities
487.4
478.0
486.5
499.5
512.8
521.3
534.1
546.8
560.6
Real Estate & Rent
154.9
150.4
153.1
160.1
165.5
171.0
176.8
180.7
186.7
Fin. & Insurance
332.4
327.6
333.5
339.5
347.3
350.3
357.3
366.2
373.9
1050.8
1070.7
1091.1
1109.2
1128.1
1158.8
1200.1
1243.4
1284.2
Education Services
127.6
134.6
136.7
139.5
142.5
147.5
151.8
156.8
161.2
Health Services
923.2
936.1
954.4
969.7
985.6
1011.3
1048.3
1086.7
1123.0
Leisure & Hospitality
926.9
931.4
957.2
997.5
1037.4
1085.2
1134.1
1175.3
1219.9
Other Services
301.1
297.3
295.7
301.6
309.2
323.1
333.7
349.7
362.7
1114.8
1112.7
1093.3
1079.1
1075.9
1074.3
1081.3
1095.1
1102.2
Federal Gov't.
132.7
142.3
134.0
132.7
132.0
131.3
133.9
137.4
136.1
State & Local Gov't
982.2
970.4
959.3
946.4
943.9
943.0
947.4
957.7
966.1
Wood Products Computer & Electronics Transportation Equipment Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining Construction
Mgmt. of Co.
Edu. & Health Service
Government
20
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
F lorida T ables
Table 4. Employment Annual 2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Total Nonfarm
8945.6
9148.1
9300.3
9433.0
9576.6
9710.8
9822.1
Manufacturing
369.5
374.5
378.5
380.6
382.5
383.4
383.9
384.2
385.2
Durable Goods
254.3
258.8
262.3
264.6
267.0
268.2
269.1
270.0
271.7
Wood Products
14.7
15.5
16.3
17.2
18.3
19.2
19.8
20.1
20.2
Computer & Electronics
42.4
42.6
42.8
42.8
43.0
42.9
43.1
43.5
43.8
Transportation Equipment
41.5
41.8
43.0
43.7
42.9
41.7
40.5
40.3
40.9
115.2
115.7
116.2
116.0
115.6
115.2
114.8
114.1
113.5
32.2
32.7
33.0
33.2
33.2
33.4
33.7
33.8
33.9
8576.0
8773.6
8921.8
9052.5
9194.1
9327.4
9438.2
9555.2
9672.2
5.9
5.8
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.6
5.6
5.5
Construction
543.2
568.0
585.6
608.3
632.6
654.4
673.3
689.1
698.4
Trans. Warehs. & Utility
293.2
296.9
299.2
300.9
302.4
303.2
303.5
306.0
308.5
Wholesale Trade
359.8
365.9
372.5
377.0
380.9
384.3
387.0
388.9
389.7
Retail Trade
1159.4
1174.5
1181.8
1186.5
1190.5
1191.7
1193.2
1200.7
1208.1
Information
140.3
141.9
142.5
143.8
145.7
148.0
149.9
151.3
152.8
Prof. & Bus. Services
1451.6
1517.3
1553.2
1599.3
1662.9
1727.9
1777.2
1828.1
1888.2
Admin. & Support
779.2
826.1
849.2
879.8
923.0
965.3
992.5
1023.3
1061.9
Prof. Sci & Tech
565.9
583.9
595.2
609.3
628.6
650.4
671.6
691.3
712.9
Mgmt. of Co.
106.4
107.3
108.8
110.2
111.3
112.3
113.2
113.5
113.5
Financial Activities
577.9
587.7
592.5
598.4
604.5
610.9
618.0
624.8
631.8
Real Estate & Rent
191.0
194.8
197.9
201.1
204.1
207.1
209.9
211.6
212.5
Fin. & Insurance
386.8
392.9
394.6
397.3
400.4
403.8
408.1
413.2
419.3
1311.8
1337.4
1366.9
1386.5
1402.0
1420.3
1438.5
1458.7
1480.7
159.5
158.3
156.5
155.8
154.8
152.8
149.0
146.3
144.7
Health Services
1152.2
1179.1
1210.4
1230.8
1247.2
1267.5
1289.5
1312.4
1336.1
Leisure & Hospitality
1256.2
1285.0
1309.8
1330.6
1341.4
1345.7
1348.8
1349.5
1349.8
367.6
370.9
373.3
376.3
377.5
378.3
379.0
381.4
382.8
1109.1
1122.4
1138.9
1139.1
1148.0
1157.1
1164.2
1171.1
1175.8
Federal Gov't.
131.7
129.8
135.5
128.5
128.5
128.6
129.0
129.5
129.8
State & Local Gov't
977.4
992.6
1003.4
1010.6
1019.5
1028.5
1035.2
1041.6
1045.9
Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining
Edu. & Health Service Education Services
Other Services Government
2025
2026
9939.4 10057.4
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
21
F lorida T ables
Table 4. Employment Annual 2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
10154.3 10244.0 10352.7 10468.7 10612.5 10761.7 10884.1 10996.6 11119.2
11246.9
Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm Manufacturing
385.4
382.9
380.1
377.5
374.8
371.5
368.1
365.8
364.4
363.5
Durable Goods
272.6
271.2
269.5
268.1
266.5
264.2
262.0
260.7
260.3
260.2
Wood Products
20.4
20.8
21.3
21.6
21.6
21.4
21.4
21.7
22.1
22.8
Computer & Electronics
44.0
44.0
43.9
43.9
43.9
43.9
43.9
43.9
44.0
44.2
Transportation Equipment
41.1
40.6
40.1
39.7
39.3
38.7
38.0
37.7
37.6
37.3
112.8
111.7
110.6
109.5
108.3
107.2
106.1
105.1
104.2
103.3
33.9
33.7
33.6
33.5
33.4
33.3
33.2
33.0
32.9
32.8
9768.9
9861.1
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.3
5.3
5.4
5.4
5.3
5.3
5.3
Construction
704.5
708.8
722.6
740.0
763.2
781.5
799.7
822.1
841.5
860.6
Trans. Warehs. & Utility
309.2
308.7
309.2
308.6
308.9
308.7
308.1
306.3
303.8
301.0
Wholesale Trade
389.6
387.2
385.1
383.9
384.3
384.7
384.2
382.9
381.5
380.3
Retail Trade
1215.3
1221.9
1227.1
1235.0
1248.7
1259.9
1271.3
1281.3
1296.4
1311.2
Information
154.4
156.5
159.2
161.7
164.1
166.7
169.6
172.7
176.4
180.0
1932.8
1978.9
2027.5
2064.9
2121.2
2183.8
2225.7
2259.8
2298.1
2343.5
1086.0
1114.8
1147.9
1169.5
1208.8
1255.7
1285.2
1304.3
1327.9
1359.0
Prof. Sci & Tech
733.7
751.8
768.0
784.2
801.6
817.6
830.4
845.7
860.6
875.0
Mgmt. of Co.
113.1
112.4
111.6
111.2
110.9
110.5
110.1
109.9
109.7
109.5
Financial Activities
637.3
641.1
645.0
650.7
657.6
663.8
669.2
674.5
680.0
685.7
Real Estate & Rent
213.0
213.0
213.5
214.9
216.6
218.0
219.2
220.8
222.7
224.4
Fin. & Insurance
424.3
428.1
431.4
435.8
440.9
445.8
450.0
453.6
457.3
461.3
1502.8
1521.6
1541.2
1561.6
1584.7
1610.4
1631.8
1649.9
1665.8
1682.1
143.0
141.3
141.0
141.6
141.9
142.4
142.8
143.2
143.7
144.3
Health Services
1359.8
1380.2
1400.2
1420.0
1442.8
1467.9
1489.0
1506.8
1522.1
1537.8
Leisure & Hospitality
1354.3
1361.3
1369.4
1377.2
1391.5
1404.3
1417.6
1428.3
1444.4
1458.5
382.8
382.8
383.9
386.3
388.6
391.1
394.0
396.7
399.3
402.1
1180.5
1187.1
1197.0
1215.9
1219.5
1229.9
1239.5
1250.8
1262.2
1273.2
130.0
132.1
135.0
146.4
142.9
146.1
149.1
152.2
155.5
158.7
1050.5
1055.0
1062.0
1069.5
1076.5
1083.8
1090.5
1098.7
1106.8
1114.5
Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining
Prof. & Bus. Services Admin. & Support
Edu. & Health Service Education Services
Other Services Government Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't
22
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
9972.5 10091.2 10237.7 10390.2 10516.1 10630.8 10754.7 10883.4
F lorida T ables
Table 4. Employment Annual 2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm
11358.2 11471.0 11597.6 11739.0 11889.6 12038.5 12204.8 12382.8 12561.5 12728.1
Manufacturing
361.9
360.6
359.1
357.5
356.2
354.3
352.6
350.6
347.9
343.8
Durable Goods
259.6
259.2
258.7
258.3
257.8
256.7
255.7
254.7
253.1
250.1
Wood Products
23.3
23.8
24.2
24.7
25.1
25.0
24.9
24.9
24.7
24.3
Computer & Electronics
44.5
44.7
44.9
45.3
45.6
46.0
46.5
46.9
47.4
47.8
Transportation Equipment
36.8
36.4
35.8
35.3
34.7
33.9
33.1
32.7
32.1
31.3
102.3
101.3
100.3
99.3
98.4
97.6
96.9
95.9
94.8
93.7
32.7
32.6
32.4
32.3
32.3
32.2
32.2
32.1
31.8
31.6
Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining
10996.2 11110.4
11238.6 11381.5 11533.4 11684.2 11852.3 12032.1 12213.6 12384.3
5.3
5.2
5.2
5.1
5.1
5.0
4.9
4.8
4.8
4.7
Construction
878.0
893.2
911.9
928.5
947.6
966.3
987.0
1015.7
1042.6
1066.5
Trans. Warehs. & Utility
297.2
294.0
290.9
288.2
285.3
282.7
280.1
277.6
275.2
273.3
Wholesale Trade
378.2
376.5
375.2
375.4
376.9
380.0
384.0
388.9
394.5
400.2
Retail Trade
1324.9
1339.0
1353.4
1366.9
1383.0
1393.6
1408.3
1422.2
1433.8
1445.6
Information
183.0
185.8
188.4
190.9
194.3
198.3
201.8
205.0
207.3
209.6
2382.1
2418.5
2462.1
2510.5
2568.3
2627.5
2695.7
2772.5
2853.9
2926.5
1384.7
1407.5
1438.6
1473.3
1513.5
1554.7
1605.6
1665.9
1727.3
1778.1
Prof. Sci & Tech
888.2
902.0
914.6
928.5
946.3
964.3
981.6
998.0
1017.9
1039.7
Mgmt. of Co.
109.2
109.1
108.9
108.6
108.5
108.5
108.6
108.7
108.7
108.7
Financial Activities
690.2
695.5
700.3
706.0
712.5
719.1
725.4
731.9
739.2
747.0
Real Estate & Rent
225.8
227.4
228.6
230.2
232.0
233.2
234.3
235.3
236.0
236.7
Fin. & Insurance
464.5
468.1
471.7
475.8
480.5
485.8
491.1
496.6
503.1
510.3
1696.1
1713.9
1731.6
1754.9
1779.9
1804.3
1827.4
1847.7
1868.3
1887.8
144.9
145.6
146.3
146.9
147.7
148.6
149.3
149.3
148.9
148.2
Health Services
1551.3
1568.3
1585.3
1608.0
1632.3
1655.7
1678.0
1698.4
1719.4
1739.6
Leisure & Hospitality
1473.2
1487.4
1504.1
1518.7
1535.0
1547.4
1563.2
1575.1
1586.9
1598.7
403.8
405.8
408.3
410.6
413.2
415.5
417.6
420.2
423.1
426.3
1284.3
1295.5
1307.3
1325.8
1332.3
1344.6
1356.8
1370.5
1384.1
1398.0
161.9
165.0
167.9
177.1
174.0
177.6
180.3
183.9
187.3
190.7
1122.4
1130.6
1139.4
1148.7
1158.3
1167.0
1176.5
1186.6
1196.9
1207.3
Prof. & Bus. Services Admin. & Support
Edu. & Health Service Education Services
Other Services Government Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
23
F lorida T ables
Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly*
2017Q2
2017Q3
2017Q4
2018Q1
2018Q2
2018Q3
2018Q4
2019Q1
2019Q2
2019Q3
2019Q4
2020Q1
Billions Current Dollars Personal Income
990.5 1005.7 1020.5 1037.1 1052.9 1068.9 1085.1 1102.8 1118.0 1133.4 1147.8 1163.6
Wages & Salaries
456.0
464.1
471.9
481.5
489.6
498.0
505.9
514.4
522.0
529.7
537.0
544.2
Other Labor Income
97.4
98.4
99.5
100.6
101.5
102.5
103.5
105.1
106.3
107.5
108.6
110.2
Nonfarm
56.6
57.7
58.8
59.9
60.5
61.0
62.0
62.9
63.5
64.2
64.9
65.6
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
Property Income
249.3
254.0
258.2
261.7
266.7
271.4
276.6
281.4
286.1
290.7
294.8
299.1
Transfer Payments
197.7
199.5
201.5
204.6
207.1
209.5
211.6
215.2
217.4
219.7
222.0
225.7
71.2
72.6
73.9
75.8
76.8
77.9
79.0
80.7
81.8
82.9
84.0
85.8
Farm
Social Insurance
Billions 2009 $ Personal Income
892.4
901.9
912.4
925.2
936.5
947.0
957.8
969.3
978.2
986.8
994.0 1002.1
Wages & Salaries
410.9
416.2
421.9
429.6
435.5
441.2
446.6
452.1
456.7
461.2
465.0
468.7
Other Labor Income
87.7
88.3
88.9
89.7
90.2
90.8
91.4
92.4
93.0
93.6
94.0
94.9
Nonfarm
51.0
51.7
52.6
53.5
53.8
54.1
54.7
55.3
55.6
55.9
56.2
56.5
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
Property Income
224.7
227.7
230.8
233.5
237.2
240.5
244.1
247.4
250.4
253.1
255.4
257.6
Transfer Payments
178.1
178.9
180.1
182.5
184.2
185.6
186.8
189.2
190.2
191.3
192.3
194.4
64.1
65.1
66.1
67.6
68.3
69.0
69.7
70.9
71.5
72.2
72.8
73.9
Farm
Social Insurance
New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations 1406.0 1429.9 1444.1 1452.5 1453.5 1460.8 1469.8 1476.5 1473.8 1477.4 1484.9 1485.2 Retail Sales (Billions $)
341.7
339.0
337.5
337.9
339.7
343.4
349.1
356.8
364.8
373.7
382.8
391.0
Real Retail Sales (Billions 2009$)
307.9
304.0
301.7
301.4
302.1
304.2
308.2
313.6
319.2
325.4
331.5
336.7
*Quarterly at an annual rate
24
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
F lorida T ables
Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Billions Current Dollars Personal Income
691.4
728.1
773.3
793.1
798.9
853.3
900.6
944.4
997.9
Wages & Salaries
320.9
322.9
332.5
346.3
358.4
378.7
403.9
430.4
460.2
Other Labor Income
73.3
76.6
75.2
78.2
81.3
82.8
88.5
93.2
97.9
Nonfarm
29.1
36.4
39.2
39.6
38.7
45.4
50.6
53.3
57.2
0.9
1.2
0.9
1.3
1.1
1.2
1.8
1.8
0.9
Property Income
175.9
187.3
211.5
217.2
211.7
230.6
235.3
238.6
251.3
Transfer Payments
138.6
151.6
157.8
156.3
161.3
171.4
180.3
190.5
198.6
50.0
50.7
46.7
48.8
56.8
60.1
63.3
66.9
71.9
Farm
Social Insurance
Billions 2009 $ Personal Income
693.5
724.4
749.3
755.3
750.8
789.3
830.6
862.3
896.5
Wages & Salaries
321.8
321.3
322.2
329.8
336.8
350.3
372.5
393.0
413.4
Other Labor Income
73.5
76.2
72.8
74.5
76.4
76.6
81.7
85.1
88.0
Nonfarm
29.2
36.2
38.0
37.7
36.4
42.0
46.6
48.7
51.4
0.9
1.2
0.9
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.7
1.6
0.9
Property Income
176.4
186.3
204.9
206.8
199.0
213.3
217.0
217.9
225.8
Transfer Payments
139.0
150.8
152.9
148.8
151.5
158.5
166.3
173.9
178.4
50.1
50.5
45.3
46.5
53.4
55.6
58.4
61.1
64.6
New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations
707.0
810.5
879.8
1006.9
1101.0
1224.2
1337.3
1352.3
1409.8
Retail Sales (Billions $)
231.9
245.4
265.5
279.6
294.5
310.6
320.1
330.2
339.9
Real Retail Sales (Billions 2009$)
232.6
244.1
257.3
266.3
276.7
287.3
295.3
301.5
305.4
Farm
Social Insurance
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
25
F lorida T ables
Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Billions Current Dollars Personal Income
1061.0
1125.5
1187.1
1250.6
1315.7
1383.9
1454.2
1525.2
1596.7
Wages & Salaries
493.8
525.8
555.8
587.6
621.6
656.4
691.0
727.2
764.8
Other Labor Income
102.0
106.9
112.1
117.3
122.3
127.7
133.1
138.9
145.4
60.9
63.9
66.8
70.1
73.8
77.7
81.5
85.2
89.2
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
Property Income
269.1
288.3
305.4
320.8
334.6
349.1
364.4
378.2
389.3
Transfer Payments
208.2
218.6
229.9
242.9
256.9
272.5
289.7
307.6
326.3
77.4
82.4
87.4
92.9
98.3
104.4
110.6
117.0
123.4
Nonfarm Farm
Social Insurance
Billions 2009 $ Personal Income
941.6
982.1
1013.8
1044.8
1075.2
1106.5
1138.5
1170.0
1201.0
Wages & Salaries
438.2
458.8
474.7
490.9
508.0
524.8
541.0
557.8
575.2
Other Labor Income
90.5
93.3
95.7
98.0
99.9
102.1
104.2
106.6
109.3
Nonfarm
54.0
55.7
57.1
58.6
60.3
62.1
63.8
65.4
67.1
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
Property Income
238.8
251.5
260.8
268.0
273.4
279.1
285.3
290.1
292.8
Transfer Payments
184.8
190.7
196.3
203.0
210.0
217.9
226.8
236.0
245.4
68.7
71.9
74.7
77.6
80.4
83.4
86.6
89.7
92.8
1459.2
1478.2
1497.5
1495.5
1491.6
1501.9
1520.6
1529.8
1544.1
Retail Sales (Billions $)
342.5
369.5
400.1
414.9
431.2
453.1
473.1
491.6
513.0
Real Retail Sales (Billions 2009$)
304.0
322.4
341.7
346.6
352.4
362.3
370.4
377.2
385.9
Farm
Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations
26
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
F lorida T ables
Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
Billions Current Dollars Personal Income
1670.2
1749.3
1838.5
1930.6
2030.2
2134.5
2242.0
2357.2
2477.5
2601.9
Wages & Salaries
802.1
841.1
884.8
930.9
982.2
1035.6
1089.3
1145.1
1204.3
1266.8
Other Labor Income
152.0
158.9
166.5
174.3
183.1
193.2
203.0
212.5
222.3
232.7
93.5
98.7
105.1
111.7
118.9
126.1
134.1
143.0
152.6
162.7
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
Property Income
402.2
417.2
435.6
454.6
474.4
495.2
517.0
543.5
570.8
597.9
Transfer Payments
345.4
365.1
385.5
405.8
426.6
448.4
471.7
495.8
520.4
545.6
Social Insurance
130.3
137.1
144.5
152.4
161.0
170.1
179.5
189.5
200.0
210.9
Nonfarm Farm
Billions 2009 $ Personal Income
1232.6
1264.9
1301.1
1337.0
1375.8
1415.3
1454.5
1496.1
1538.2
1580.3
Wages & Salaries
592.0
608.2
626.2
644.7
665.6
686.6
706.7
726.8
747.8
769.4
Other Labor Income
112.2
114.9
117.8
120.7
124.1
128.1
131.7
134.9
138.0
141.3
69.0
71.3
74.4
77.3
80.6
83.6
87.0
90.8
94.7
98.8
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
Property Income
296.8
301.7
308.3
314.8
321.5
328.3
335.4
344.9
354.4
363.2
Transfer Payments
254.9
264.0
272.8
281.1
289.1
297.3
306.0
314.7
323.1
331.4
96.2
99.2
102.3
105.5
109.1
112.8
116.4
120.3
124.2
128.1
1559.9
1569.2
1588.2
1615.1
1656.6
1678.6
1695.6
1735.2
1763.2
1801.7
Retail Sales (Billions $)
537.3
560.5
582.7
606.4
632.9
660.3
688.4
718.1
750.3
784.2
Real Retail Sales (Billions 2009$)
396.5
405.3
412.4
419.9
428.9
437.8
446.6
455.8
465.9
476.3
Nonfarm Farm
Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
27
F lorida T ables
Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
Billions Current Dollars Personal Income
2729.1
2866.0
3013.0
3167.4
3330.2
3497.8
3675.2
3865.9
4067.0
4274.1
Wages & Salaries
1330.6
1398.0
1470.0
1546.4
1630.0
1717.4
1811.6
1912.5
2020.0
2131.6
Other Labor Income
243.9
256.1
268.7
282.1
296.6
310.8
326.4
342.8
359.8
377.5
Nonfarm
173.1
184.2
196.5
209.4
222.7
236.5
251.4
267.3
283.7
300.9
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
Property Income
624.8
655.6
689.7
725.7
761.4
798.5
836.5
878.5
922.7
968.2
Transfer Payments
571.6
599.1
628.2
657.7
688.5
719.8
751.7
785.6
820.6
856.0
Social Insurance
222.2
234.6
247.9
261.9
277.4
293.8
311.4
329.9
349.3
369.7
Farm
Billions 2009 $ Personal Income
1621.4
1665.4
1712.2
1760.3
1809.9
1858.9
1909.8
1964.0
2020.1
2075.4
Wages & Salaries
790.5
812.3
835.3
859.4
885.9
912.7
941.4
971.6
1003.3
1035.0
Other Labor Income
144.9
148.8
152.7
156.8
161.2
165.2
169.6
174.2
178.7
183.3
Nonfarm
102.8
107.1
111.6
116.4
121.0
125.7
130.6
135.8
140.9
146.1
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Property Income
371.2
380.9
391.9
403.3
413.8
424.3
434.7
446.3
458.3
470.1
Transfer Payments
339.6
348.1
357.0
365.6
374.2
382.6
390.6
399.1
407.6
415.7
Social Insurance
132.0
136.3
140.9
145.6
150.8
156.2
161.8
167.6
173.5
179.5
1832.7
1871.6
1901.7
1938.7
1989.5
2034.3
2077.6
2125.8
2167.6
2211.8
Retail Sales (Billions $)
818.4
854.3
891.2
929.6
971.7
1016.7
1063.2
1110.7
1161.8
1218.2
Real Retail Sales (Billions 2009$)
486.3
496.4
506.4
516.6
528.1
540.3
552.5
564.3
577.1
591.5
Farm
New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations
28
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
F lorida C harts
Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate 14.0%
(%)
12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate
Florida Construction Employment 1200.0
(Thousands)
1000.0 800.0 600.0 400.0 200.0
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
29
F lorida C harts
Florida Consumer Price Index (% change year ago)
6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 FL CPI
Florida Education & Health Services Employment (Thousands)
2000.0 1800.0 1600.0 1400.0 1200.0 1000.0 800.0 600.0
30
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
F lorida C harts
Florida Federal Government Employment 200.0
(Thousands)
180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046
Florida Financial Activities Employment 750.0
(Thousands)
700.0 650.0 600.0 550.0 500.0 450.0
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
31
F lorida C harts
Florida Information Employment (Thousands)
220.0 200.0 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046
Florida Gross State Product (percent ch. year ago)
15% 11% 7% 2% -2% -6%
32
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 FL Gross State Product
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
F lorida C harts
Florida Housing Starts (Thousands)
300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Total Private Housing Starts
Florida Leisure & Hospitality Employment 1700.0
(Thousands)
1520.0 1340.0 1160.0 980.0 800.0
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
33
F lorida C harts
Florida Manufacturing Employment (Thousands)
500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0 250.0
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046
New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50%
34
(percent ch. year ago)
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
F lorida C harts
Florida Personal Income (percent ch. year ago)
9% 4% -1% -5% -10%
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046
Florida Professional & Business Services Employment 3000.0
(Thousands)
2500.0 2000.0 1500.0 1000.0 500.0
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
35
F lorida C harts
Florida Real Gross State Product (percent ch. year ago)
10% 5% 0% -5% -10%
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046
Florida State & Local Government Employment 1250.0 1200.0 1150.0 1100.0 1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0
(Thousands)
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046
Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment (Thousands)
2200.0 2000.0 1800.0 1600.0 1400.0 36
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
F lorida C harts
Florida Unemployment Rate (percent)
14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Unemployment Rate
Florida Population (Thousands)
30000.0 28000.0 26000.0 24000.0 22000.0 20000.0 18000.0 16000.0 14000.0
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046
Florida Employment 13000.0
(Thousands)
12000.0 11000.0 10000.0 9000.0 8000.0 7000.0 6000.0
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Wage & Salary Employment Institute for Economic Competitiveness
37
F lorida N ews S ummaries
Infighting threatens sale of Florida marijuana dispensary • Aphria, a Canadian publicly traded cannabis conglomerate, and South Florida’s Delavaco Group announced a planned acquisition of Chestnut Hill Tree Farm.
• Aphria’s deal to buy Florida cannabis cultivation and distribution license, one of seven in the state, has been valued at $177 million.
• An agreement was reached by Aphria, Delavaco, and Chestnut Hill Tree Hill Farm to turn over CHT Medical’s operations in exchange for $60 million; the deal was later postponed due to infighting.
Source: Miami Herald, April 27, 2017
AAA: Florida gas prices reach 20-month high but headed lower • The average per-gallon price of unleaded gas in Florida was $2.46 in the month of April.
• Gas prices are expected to drop following the drop in crude oil below $50 a barrel. • The drop in oil prices comes amid pessimism that OPEC will extend its November agreement to support higher prices and production cuts.
Source: Sun Sentinel, April 24, 2017
Wal-Mart bolsters area footprint with two new warehouses, 2,000 jobs • Wal-Mart said it will hire about 450 workers for the new 650,000-square-foot, $145 million Cocoa distribution center.
• Wal-Mart received about $12.5 million in economic incentives from Polk County for warehouse facilities in Cocoa and Davenport.
• Also, Wal-Mart received another $850,000 in target industry tax credits from the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity.
Source: Orlando Sentinel, May 23, 2017
38
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
Florida jobless rate drops to 4.5 percent as expanding companies scramble to find more workers • Florida’s unemployment rate fell from 4.8 percent in March to 4.5 percent in April, the lowest rate since November of 2007. • Florida’s unemployment rate is slightly higher than the national unemployment rate, which comes in at 4.4 percent.
• The Tampa area leads Florida in job openings, adding 2,300 jobs since March 2017 and 33,400 since April of 2016.
Source: Tampa Bay Times, May 17, 2017
Florida ranks fourth in drawing private equity dollars • In 2016, $41.8 billion in funds were invested into 219 Florida-based companies, supporting 33,733 jobs.
• Florida ranked fourth in the nation for the number of companies receiving investment, following California, Texas, and New York. • Nationally, there was more than $644 billion invested in U.S. companies in 2016, with 60 percent of that capital going to information technology and business services.
Source: Miami Herald, June 1, 2017
D eltona – D a y tona B each – O rmond B each
PROFILES
OUTLOOK SUMMARIES
The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is comprised of Volusia and Flagler Counties. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500.
• Volusia County Schools – 7,503
The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income is expected to average 5.3 percent growth, while the real per capita income level will average $37,300. The average annual wage will be the second lowest of the studied areas at $45,600. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 4.2 percent. Population growth will average 1.6 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at an average level of 16,382.98 million dollars. The employment growth rate is expected to average 2.1 percent each year. Unemployment will average 4.3 percent. The Deltona MSA will experience the most growth in the Construction and Mining sector, with an average growth rate of 5.8 percent annually. The Professional and Business sector will see the second highest average growth in the Deltona MSA at 3.9 percent annually. The Education and Health Services and Financial sectors follow with an average annual growth rate of 2.4 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively. No sector is expected to experience a decline.
• Florida Hospital Volusia-Flagler Market – 3,256
METRO NEWS SUMMARIES
• Daytona State College – 1,568
Daytona properties with unpaid fines could face foreclosure
QUICK FACTS:
• Volusia County population estimate of 500,800 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Flagler County population estimate of 99,956 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 297,359 in May 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).
• An unemployment rate of 4.3% as of May 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 12,649 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • Halifax Health – 4,709
• County of Volusia – 3,341
• Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University – 1,423 • Florida Health Care Plans, Inc. – 916 • Frontier Communications – 800
• Department of Transportation – 700 • Bert Fish Medical Center – 700
Source: Volusia County Department of Economic Development and Enterprise Florida
• Daytona has plans to crack down on unpaid code violation fine payments that go back as far as 1997, totaling $4.46 million across 395 cases. A large portion of those who owe fines must pay ten thousand or more. If fines continue to be left unpaid, properties may be foreclosed. • Daytona Beach has also ramped up code enforcement efforts in other areas such as proper rental property licensing and rundown buildings.
• City Commissioner Aaron Delgado said, “People will see that we’re serious, and hopefully they’ll pay their fines and make repairs. We won’t tolerate people who just let liens back up and do nothing.”
Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, May 14, 2017
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
39
D eltona – D a y tona B each – O rmond B each
International Speedway Corp. reports rise in revenues, earnings
• International Speedway Corp. saw a total of $147.9 million in revenues in the first quarter of 2017, which is an increase of $5.3 million compared to the first quarter of 2016. The first quarter of 2017 also resulted in $21.3 million in net income, which is an increase of $1.5 million compared to quarter one of 2016.
• This increase can be attributed to increased sales in food and beverage, merchandise, and tickets, along with sponsorships and broadcasting revenue. • Ticket sales have decreased compared to the same time one year ago by approximately $520,000. International Speedway Corp CFO Greg Motto believes attendance was influenced by unfavorable weather at “support events leading up to the Daytona 500.”
Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, April 4, 2017
March unemployment rate falls in Volusia, Flagler
• The unemployment rate in Volusia County stood at 4.5% in March of 2017, falling from 5% at the same time last year. Excluding agriculture, a total of 7,772 jobs were added to the area in the last year. • In Flagler County, the unemployment rate was 4.8% in March of 2017, compared to 5.5% in March of 2016. Excluding agriculture, a total of 1,469 jobs were added to the area in the last year.
• While the leisure and hospitality and information industries lost jobs, other industries gained jobs – especially in trade, transportation and utilities and education and health services.
Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, April 21, 2017
40
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
Property values on the rise in Volusia, Flagler
• Property values in Volusia and Flagler Counties are forecasted to see a great increase, especially in Volusia. • An 8.1% increase in property value is expected to occur in Volusia County during 2017, a $3.8 million increase in value. In Flagler County, values are expected to increase by 4.9%.
• Larry Bartlett, a property appraiser in Volusia, stated, “I think we’re back from where we were in residential prices. Actually, we’re sort of going beyond where the typical 4.65-percent annual raise would take us …”
Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, June 3, 2017 Volusia hotel occupancy rises in April
• Hotel occupancy rose by approximately 9% compared to April of last year in Volusia County.
• In addition to the occupancy rate, average daily hotel room rates and revenue earned per room has also improved in April compared to the same time last year. The average room rate increased by 6% and revenue per room increased by 15%.
• Evelyn Fine, president of Mid-Florida Marketing & Research, said, “We had a terrific month. With Easter coming in April, we knew it would affect both months, March and April …We did extremely well on family spring vacations in April.”
Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, May 24, 2017
D eltona – D a y tona B each – O rmond B each Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate (percent)
14.0% 12.0%
1.2
1.4
1.6
Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product 35000.0
(Millions 2000 $)
30000.0
10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%
1.0
25000.0 20000.0 15000.0
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate
10000.0
Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income
Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment 300.0 280.0 260.0 240.0 220.0 200.0 180.0 160.0 140.0
(Thousands)
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Gross Metro Product
10.0%
(percent change year ago)
5.0% 0.0% -5.0% 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Deltona Payroll Employment
-10.0%
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Personal Income
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
41
D eltona – D a y tona B each – O rmond B each
Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
June 2017
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
19 -5.8 6.2 12.7
19.7 3.9 6.3 13.4
20.5 3.9 6.3 14.1
21 2.8 6.6 14.4
21.4 1.7 6.7 14.7
22.5 5.4 7.1 15.4
23.8 5.7 7.6 16.3
25 4.9 8.1 16.8
26.2 5 8.7 17.5
19 -5
19.6 3.1
19.8 1.1
20 1
20.1 0.3
20.8 3.7
22 5.4
22.8 3.8
23.5 3.3
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
32.1 32.2
33.3 33.2
34.5 33.4
35.2 33.6
35.5 33.3
36.8 34
38.1 35.1
39 35.6
40.2 36.1
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
35.4 -0.5
36.2 2.2
36.3 0.2
37.3 2.9
37.6 0.6
38.6 2.7
39.9 3.3
41.1 3
42.7 3.9
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
174.6 -5.5
172.4 -1.3
173.5 0.6
175.2 1
177.9 1.5
182.3 2.5
188.3 3.3
197 4.6
202.8 3
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
8.7 -14.7
8.4 -2.9
9.1 7.7
9.3 2.7
9.8 5.8
10.5 6.3
10.9 4.2
11.5 5.5
11.6 0.9
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
166 -5
164 -1.2
164.4 0.3
165.9 0.9
168 1.3
171.9 2.3
177.4 3.2
185.5 4.6
191.2 3.1
10 -22.9
8.8 -11.6
8.2 -6.6
8.5 3.3
9.3 9.8
10.1 8.7
11.2 10.2
12.1 8.2
13.1 8.6
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
33.7 -6.6
33.5 -0.7
33.5 0.2
33.8 0.9
33.7 -0.2
34.5 2.4
35.9 3.9
37.2 3.8
38.6 3.7
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
5.2 26.3 2.2
5.1 26.3 2.1
5 26.5 2
4.9 26.8 2.1
4.6 27 2.2
4.5 27.7 2.3
4.8 28.7 2.4
5.1 29.7 2.4
5.2 31.1 2.5
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
3.5 -6.9
3.2 -8.1
3.1 -4.1
2.9 -5.7
2.8 -5.2
2.6 -5.1
2.6 -1.9
2.5 -1.3
2.5 -2.2
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
7.9 -8
7.9 0.1
8.1 2
8.4 4.2
8.5 1.2
8.4 -0.8
8.6 2.3
8.7 1.1
8.9 2.3
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
17.7 -0.1
17.3 -2.1
17.9 3
18.5 3.8
19.4 4.6
20.2 4
21 4.3
23.6 12.2
24.5 3.9
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
33.6 -0.5
34.1 1.5
34.8 2
34.9 0.5
35.6 1.9
36.3 2.1
37 1.8
38.2 3.3
39.6 3.7
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
24 -4.6
24.1 0.5
25.2 4.3
25.9 3
26.6 2.5
27.9 4.9
29.3 5.1
30.8 5.2
30.9 0.4
9.2 2.9
8.8 -4.1
8.3 -5.7
8.3 0.1
8.3 -0.1
8.4 0.3
8.4 1
8.8 4.9
9.2 4.5
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
1.6 -0.1
1.7 6.8
1.4 -17
1.3 -8.3
1.3 -1.9
1.3 2
1.3 1.2
1.4 3.1
1.4 1.9
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
24.8 -5
24.6 -1.1
24 -2.1
23.2 -3.3
22.5 -3
22.1 -1.8
22.1 -0.1
22.1 0
22.4 1.3
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
589.7 -0.1
590.8 0.2
592.6 0.3
596.7 0.7
602.7 1
612.3 1.6
625.2 2.1
639.4 2.3
652.6 2.1
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
278.2 -0.4
279.5 0.5
279.7 0.1
279.5 -0.1
279.6 0
281.2 0.6
282 0.3
290.5 3
298.7 2.8
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
42
Unemployment Rate (%)
11.3
12.3
11.3
9.5
8.2
6.9
5.9
5.2
4.5
Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
874 770 104
1001 849 152
1179 660 519
1010 993 17
1894 1655 239
1931 1763 168
2087 1930 158
2130 1673 458
3301 2176 1125
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
D eltona – D a y tona B each – O rmond B each
Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
June 2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
27.7 5.5 9.3 18.4
29.2 5.6 9.9 19.3
30.7 5.2 10.4 20.3
32.3 5.1 11 21.3
33.9 5 11.7 22.2
35.5 4.9 12.3 23.2
37.3 4.9 13 24.3
39 4.7 13.7 25.4
40.8 4.5 14.4 26.5
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
24.4 3.9
25.3 3.5
26.1 2.9
26.8 2.9
27.5 2.6
28.2 2.5
29 2.6
29.7 2.4
30.3 2.3
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
41.7 36.9
43.5 37.7
45.1 38.3
46.9 38.9
48.6 39.4
50.3 39.9
52.1 40.5
53.9 40.9
55.7 41.4
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
44.5 4.2
46.5 4.5
48.5 4.3
50.7 4.6
53 4.6
55.4 4.5
57.8 4.3
60.2 4.2
62.7 4.2
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
207.6 2.3
211 1.7
213.8 1.3
216.3 1.2
219 1.3
221.5 1.1
223.4 0.9
225.6 1
227.8 0.9
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
11.7 1
11.9 1.4
12.1 1.4
12.2 0.8
12.2 0.7
12.3 0.4
12.3 0.4
12.4 0.4
12.4 0.5
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
195.8 2.4
199.1 1.7
201.7 1.3
204.1 1.2
206.8 1.3
209.2 1.2
211.1 0.9
213.3 1
215.3 1
14 6.9
14.7 5
15.1 2.7
15.6 2.8
16 3.1
16.5 2.7
16.9 2.3
17.2 1.8
17.3 0.8
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
38.8 0.4
38.9 0.3
38.9 0.1
39 0.2
39.1 0.2
39.1 0.1
39.1 -0.1
39.2 0.2
39.2 0.1
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
5.4 31.6 2.6
5.5 31.8 2.6
5.6 31.9 2.6
5.6 32 2.6
5.7 31.9 2.6
5.8 31.9 2.6
5.8 31.8 2.6
5.8 31.8 2.6
5.9 31.9 2.7
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
2.5 1.6
2.5 0.8
2.6 1.3
2.6 1
2.6 1.3
2.7 1.6
2.7 1.4
2.7 1
2.8 1
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
9.1 2.5
9.3 1.3
9.3 0.8
9.4 1
9.5 1.1
9.6 1
9.7 0.9
9.8 0.9
9.9 0.9
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
25.8 5.4
26.9 4.2
27.4 1.9
28.1 2.4
29 3.3
30 3.1
30.6 2.1
31.3 2.4
32.2 2.9
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
40.4 2
41.1 1.7
42 2.2
42.7 1.7
43.3 1.5
44 1.6
44.7 1.7
45.6 1.9
46.5 2
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
31.8 2.8
32.1 1
32.4 1.1
32.8 1.1
32.9 0.5
32.9 0
32.9 -0.1
32.8 -0.4
32.6 -0.4
9.4 1.8
9.4 0.4
9.5 0.2
9.5 0.5
9.5 0.2
9.5 -0.1
9.5 -0.1
9.5 0.4
9.5 0.1
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
1.3 -3.5
1.3 -1.7
1.4 9.3
1.3 -9
1.3 0.2
1.3 0.3
1.3 0.5
1.3 0.4
1.3 0.1
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
22.6 0.9
22.8 1
23 0.9
23.2 0.7
23.4 0.9
23.6 0.9
23.7 0.6
23.9 0.5
23.9 0.2
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
662.7 1.5
671.4 1.3
680.1 1.3
688.8 1.3
697.5 1.3
706.3 1.3
715.2 1.3
724.2 1.3
733.3 1.3
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
301 0.8
304.5 1.2
309.6 1.7
314.8 1.7
320 1.7
325 1.6
329 1.2
332.2 1
335.9 1.1
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
4.1
4.1
4.3
4.4
4.6
4.8
4.9
5
5.2
4916 3444 1472
5603 3993 1611
5760 4052 1708
5980 4240 1740
6084 4348 1736
6140 4443 1698
6253 4576 1677
6057 4406 1652
5893 4233 1660
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
43
D eltona – D a y tona B each – O rmond B each
Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
June 2017
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
42.7 4.5 15.1 27.6
44.7 4.8 15.9 28.8
47.1 5.4 16.8 30.3
49.6 5.2 17.8 31.8
52.3 5.4 18.9 33.3
55.1 5.3 20.1 35
57.9 5.2 21.3 36.7
61.1 5.4 22.5 38.6
64.3 5.3 23.8 40.5
67.7 5.2 25.2 42.5
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
31.1 2.4
31.9 2.8
33 3.4
34.1 3.2
35.2 3.3
36.3 3.3
37.5 3.2
38.7 3.3
40 3.3
41.3 3.2
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
57.5 41.8
59.5 42.5
62.1 43.5
64.6 44.4
67.4 45.4
70.2 46.3
73.1 47.3
76.2 48.3
79.4 49.4
82.6 50.4
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
65.3 4.1
68.3 4.5
71.6 4.9
75.1 4.8
78.8 5
82.6 4.9
86.6 4.8
90.9 4.9
95.3 4.8
99.8 4.8
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
229.6 0.8
231.4 0.8
233.7 1
236 1
239 1.3
242 1.2
244.4 1
246.6 0.9
248.9 0.9
251.3 0.9
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
12.5 0.3
12.4 -0.6
12.3 -0.5
12.3 -0.4
12.2 -0.5
12.1 -0.7
12 -0.8
12 -0.5
12 -0.2
11.9 -0.1
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
217.1 0.8
219 0.9
221.3 1.1
223.7 1.1
226.8 1.4
229.9 1.3
232.4 1.1
234.6 1
237 1
239.3 1
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
17.3 0.1
17.3 -0.4
17.5 1.4
17.9 2.1
18.4 2.8
18.7 2
19.1 1.9
19.5 2.4
19.9 2
20.3 1.9
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
39.3 0.3
39.5 0.4
39.5 0.2
39.6 0.2
39.9 0.6
40.1 0.5
40.2 0.4
40.3 0.3
40.5 0.4
40.7 0.4
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
5.9 32 2.7
5.9 32.1 2.7
5.9 32.2 2.7
5.9 32.3 2.7
5.9 32.7 2.7
5.9 32.9 2.7
5.9 33.2 2.7
5.9 33.3 2.7
5.9 33.6 2.7
5.9 33.9 2.7
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
2.8 1
2.8 1.4
2.9 1.8
2.9 1.7
3 1.6
3 1.7
3.1 1.8
3.1 1.9
3.2 2.1
3.3 2
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
10 0.8
10 0.5
10.1 0.6
10.2 0.9
10.3 1.1
10.4 0.9
10.4 0.8
10.5 0.7
10.6 0.7
10.7 0.7
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
32.8 1.9
33.5 2.1
34.3 2.4
34.9 1.6
35.7 2.4
36.7 2.6
37.2 1.5
37.6 1.2
38.1 1.3
38.7 1.6
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
47.5 2
48.3 1.8
49.1 1.6
49.9 1.6
50.8 1.8
51.7 1.9
52.6 1.6
53.3 1.3
53.9 1.2
54.5 1.1
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
32.6 0
32.7 0.3
32.8 0.3
32.9 0.3
33.2 0.8
33.4 0.6
33.6 0.7
33.8 0.5
34.1 0.8
34.3 0.6
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
9.5 -0.2
9.5 0
9.6 0.4
9.6 0.7
9.7 0.7
9.8 0.7
9.9 0.8
9.9 0.7
10 0.6
10.1 0.7
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
1.3 0
1.4 2.7
1.4 3.9
1.6 10.4
1.6 -0.5
1.6 3.8
1.7 3.7
1.7 3.7
1.8 3.8
1.9 3.7
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
24 0.3
24 0.2
24.2 0.4
24.3 0.5
24.4 0.5
24.5 0.5
24.6 0.4
24.8 0.5
24.9 0.5
25 0.5
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
742.5 1.3
751.2 1.2
759.5 1.1
767.7 1.1
775.8 1.1
784.2 1.1
792.7 1.1
801.4 1.1
810.4 1.1
819.5 1.1
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
339.7 1.1
344.1 1.3
349 1.4
354 1.4
358.9 1.4
363.9 1.4
369 1.4
374.1 1.4
379.6 1.5
385.1 1.5
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
44
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
5.4
5.6
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5745 4101 1644
5632 4007 1625
5780 4151 1628
5825 4171 1653
5928 4269 1659
5650 3992 1658
5821 4174 1647
6027 4386 1641
6004 4376 1628
6019 4442 1577
D eltona – D a y tona B each – O rmond B each
Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
June 2017
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
71.2 5.2 26.6 44.6
75 5.3 28.1 46.8
79.1 5.5 29.8 49.3
83.4 5.4 31.5 51.8
87.8 5.3 33.4 54.4
92.4 5.3 35.3 57.1
97.5 5.5 37.5 60
103 5.6 39.9 63.1
108.7 5.6 42.3 66.4
114.7 5.5 44.9 69.8
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
42.5 3.1
43.9 3.2
45.4 3.4
46.9 3.3
48.4 3.2
50 3.2
51.7 3.4
53.5 3.5
55.4 3.5
57.3 3.4
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
85.9 51.3
89.4 52.4
93.3 53.5
97.2 54.7
101.1 55.8
105.3 57
110.1 58.4
115.3 59.9
120.9 61.6
126.7 63.2
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
104.6 4.8
109.6 4.8
115 4.9
120.5 4.8
126.2 4.7
132.1 4.7
138.4 4.7
145.1 4.8
152.1 4.8
159.4 4.8
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
253.4 0.8
255.5 0.9
257.9 0.9
260.5 1
263.3 1.1
266.3 1.1
270 1.4
273.8 1.4
277.3 1.3
280.7 1.2
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
11.9 -0.3
11.9 -0.3
11.8 -0.3
11.8 -0.3
11.8 -0.3
11.7 -0.4
11.7 -0.4
11.6 -0.5
11.5 -0.7
11.4 -1.2
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
241.5 0.9
243.6 0.9
246.1 1
248.7 1.1
251.6 1.1
254.6 1.2
258.3 1.5
262.2 1.5
265.8 1.4
269.3 1.3
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
20.6 1.6
20.9 1.3
21.2 1.6
21.5 1.4
21.9 1.6
22.2 1.6
22.6 1.6
23.1 2.5
23.6 2.3
24.1 2
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
40.8 0.3
41 0.4
41.1 0.4
41.2 0.3
41.4 0.5
41.6 0.4
42 0.9
42.3 0.8
42.6 0.7
43 0.9
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
5.9 34.2 2.7
5.9 34.5 2.7
5.9 34.8 2.6
5.9 35 2.6
6 35.4 2.6
6 35.6 2.6
6.1 36.1 2.6
6.3 36.4 2.6
6.4 36.7 2.6
6.5 37.1 2.6
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
3.3 1.7
3.4 1.6
3.4 1.4
3.5 1.4
3.5 1.8
3.6 2.3
3.7 2.2
3.8 2
3.8 1.5
3.9 1.5
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
10.7 0.6
10.8 0.7
10.9 0.6
11 0.7
11 0.8
11.1 0.9
11.3 1
11.4 1
11.5 1.1
11.6 1.2
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
39.2 1.3
39.7 1.2
40.3 1.5
41 1.7
41.8 2
42.7 2.1
43.8 2.6
45 2.8
46.3 2.9
47.6 2.8
55 1
55.7 1.3
56.4 1.3
57.3 1.5
58.2 1.6
59.1 1.6
60.1 1.7
61.1 1.6
61.7 1
62.2 0.9
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
34.5 0.7
34.7 0.6
35 0.8
35.2 0.6
35.5 0.7
35.7 0.5
36 0.9
36.2 0.6
36.5 0.9
36.8 0.8
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
10.1 0.4
10.1 0.5
10.2 0.6
10.2 0.5
10.3 0.5
10.4 0.5
10.4 0.6
10.5 0.6
10.5 0.5
10.6 0.6
1.9 3.6
2 3.5
2.1 3.3
2.2 7.5
2.2 -0.7
2.3 3.6
2.4 3.1
2.4 3.6
2.5 3.5
2.6 3.4
25.1 0.5
25.3 0.5
25.4 0.6
25.6 0.7
25.8 0.7
25.9 0.7
26.2 0.9
26.4 0.9
26.6 0.8
26.8 0.9
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
828.8 1.1
838.4 1.2
848.1 1.2
857.9 1.2
867.7 1.1
877.3 1.1
885.3 0.9
893 0.9
899.3 0.7
905.9 0.7
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
390.5 1.4
395.8 1.4
401.3 1.4
407.2 1.5
412.9 1.4
418.4 1.3
424 1.3
429.3 1.3
435 1.3
441 1.4
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.6
5915 4395 1520
5811 4337 1474
5841 4403 1437
5759 4349 1411
5723 4363 1360
5703 4380 1323
5795 4501 1294
5941 4669 1272
5953 4692 1261
5958 4708 1250
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
45
D eltona – D a y tona B each – O rmond B each
Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
June 2017
2017Q2
2017Q3
2017Q4
2018Q1
2018Q2
2018Q3
2018Q4
2019Q1
2019Q2
2019Q3
2019Q4
2020Q1
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
26 4.9 8.6 17.4
26.4 4.7 8.8 17.6
26.7 5.3 8.9 17.8
27.1 5.5 9.1 18.1
27.5 5.4 9.2 18.3
27.8 5.5 9.4 18.5
28.2 5.6 9.5 18.7
28.6 5.6 9.6 19
29 5.6 9.8 19.2
29.4 5.7 9.9 19.5
29.7 5.4 10.1 19.7
30.1 5.3 10.2 19.9
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
23.4 3.2
23.6 3
23.9 3.8
24.1 4
24.3 3.9
24.5 3.8
24.8 3.8
25 3.6
25.2 3.6
25.4 3.6
25.6 3.3
25.8 3.1
40 36
40.3 36.1
40.7 36.3
41.1 36.6
41.5 36.8
41.9 37
42.4 37.2
42.8 37.4
43.3 37.6
43.7 37.8
44.1 37.9
44.5 38.1
42.5 4.3
42.8 3.3
43.2 3.4
43.7 3.8
44.2 3.9
44.7 4.4
45.2 4.8
45.7 4.6
46.2 4.6
46.7 4.5
47.2 4.3
47.7 4.3
Personal Income (Billions $)
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
202.1 3
203.5 2.3
204.8 3.1
206.1 2.6
207.2 2.5
208.1 2.2
208.8 1.9
209.8 1.8
210.6 1.7
211.4 1.6
212.1 1.6
212.7 1.4
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
11.6 0.6
11.6 0.4
11.6 0.7
11.7 0.8
11.7 1.1
11.7 1
11.8 1.3
11.8 1.2
11.9 1.2
11.9 1.5
12 1.7
12 1.6
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
190.5 3.1
191.9 2.4
193.2 3.2
194.4 2.7
195.5 2.6
196.4 2.3
197 2
198 1.9
198.8 1.7
199.5 1.6
200.1 1.5
200.7 1.3
13 8.9
13.2 7.2
13.4 8.3
13.7 6.2
13.9 7
14.2 7.6
14.3 6.7
14.6 6.5
14.7 5.5
14.8 4.5
14.9 3.8
15 2.9
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
38.6 4.4
38.7 3.5
38.7 1.8
38.7 0.6
38.8 0.5
38.8 0.4
38.8 0.3
38.9 0.4
38.9 0.4
38.9 0.3
38.9 0.1
38.9 0.1
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
5.2 31 2.5
5.3 31.2 2.5
5.3 31.3 2.5
5.4 31.5 2.5
5.4 31.6 2.6
5.4 31.6 2.6
5.4 31.7 2.6
5.4 31.8 2.6
5.5 31.8 2.6
5.5 31.9 2.6
5.5 31.8 2.6
5.5 31.9 2.6
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
2.5 -1.8
2.5 -2.4
2.5 -1
2.5 1.5
2.5 2.4
2.5 1.7
2.5 1
2.5 -0.2
2.5 -0.1
2.5 1.1
2.6 2.2
2.6 1.9
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
8.9 2.2
9 2.9
9 3.2
9.1 3.1
9.1 2.7
9.2 2.3
9.2 1.8
9.2 1.7
9.3 1.4
9.3 1.2
9.3 1.1
9.3 0.8
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
24.3 4.4
24.7 2.1
25 3.4
25.4 5.3
25.8 5.8
26 5.4
26.2 5
26.6 4.8
26.9 4.3
27.1 4
27.2 3.7
27.2 2.4
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
39.5 3.4
39.8 2.8
39.9 3.9
40.1 2.3
40.3 2.1
40.5 1.8
40.6 1.7
40.8 1.7
41 1.6
41.2 1.7
41.4 1.8
41.6 2
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
30.7 -0.4
31.1 -0.4
31.4 3.3
31.6 4.2
31.7 3.1
31.8 2.3
31.9 1.6
32 1.1
32 1
32.1 0.9
32.2 0.8
32.3 0.9
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
9.2 4.8
9.3 4.2
9.3 3.7
9.4 2.3
9.4 2.1
9.4 1.6
9.4 1.1
9.5 0.8
9.5 0.6
9.4 0.3
9.4 0
9.5 0
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
1.4 4.5
1.4 0.6
1.4 -0.2
1.4 -2.4
1.3 -3.4
1.3 -4.2
1.3 -4
1.3 -6.4
1.3 -3.1
1.3 0
1.4 2.7
1.3 4.2
22.4 1.1
22.4 1
22.5 1.7
22.5 1
22.6 1
22.6 0.8
22.6 0.7
22.7 0.7
22.8 0.9
22.9 1.1
22.9 1.3
23 1.2
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
651.3 2.1
654.2 2
656.8 1.9
659.3 1.7
661.5 1.6
663.8 1.5
666 1.4
668.2 1.4
670.4 1.3
672.5 1.3
674.7 1.3
676.8 1.3
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
299 3.4
299.3 2.6
299.5 1.9
300 1
300.6 0.5
301.3 0.7
302.1 0.9
302.9 1
303.9 1.1
305 1.2
306.3 1.4
307.6 1.5
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
46
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.1
4
4
4
4.1
4.2
4.3
3040 1974 1065
3556 2335 1221
4063 2703 1360
4449 3034 1415
4818 3331 1488
5074 3608 1466
5322 3805 1517
5534 3985 1549
5615 3990 1625
5628 4003 1625
5635 3992 1643
5691 4003 1688
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
G aines v ille
PROFILES The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist Counties and is located in the centralnorth portion of the state. This Metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history museum. QUICK FACTS:
• Metro population estimate of 270,382 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Alachua County population estimate of 253,451 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Gilchrist County population estimate of 16,931 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 142,605 in May 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).
• An unemployment rate of 3.4% as of May 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 4,916 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:
• University of Florida – 27,870 • UFHealth – 12,000
• Alachua County School Board – 4,200
• Veterans Affairs Medical Center – 3,500 • City of Gainesville – 2,270
• Publix Supermarkets – 2,160
• North Florida Regional Medical Center – 2,100 • Gator Dining Services – 1,200
• Nationwide Insurance Company – 950 • Wal-Mart Stores – 910
Source: Gainsville Area Chamber of Commerce
OUTLOOK SUMMARIES The Gainesville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show mixed levels of growth in most of the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income growth will see an average of 5.7 percent growth, the fifth lowest of the studied MSAs. Real per capita income level is expected to average $40,600. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 4.6 percent, the highest of the studied MSAs, while the average annual wage level will be at $52,500. Population growth will be the lowest of the studied areas at 0.8 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be the second lowest of the studied MSAs at an average level of 11,321.88 million dollars. Gainesville will see an average employment growth rate of 1.7 percent annually, the third lowest growth of the MSAs. The Gainesville MSA will, however, maintain the lowest average unemployment rate of the MSAs studied, at 3.3 percent. The fastest growing sector in the area will be the Construction and Mining sector, with an average growth rate of 4.9 percent annually. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector with an average annual growth rate of 4.0 percent. The Federal Government sector will experience a decline, with average annual growth rate of -1.4 percent.
METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Local artisan-aimed app debuts May 1
• After the launch of a new online platform, local Gainesville artisans will have a place to showcase their talents and connect to the public. Talents range from baking to painting and will help connect people who are interested in what is being offered. • This new platform will make it easier for unique artisans, like custom furniture designers, to sell their products and services. The site will help connect users to artisans’ websites and is focused on bringing the people to the artisan in the easiest way possible. • All of the different groups involved in this new online platform have the same end goal: empowering local makers.
Source: Gainesville Sun, April 23, 2017
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
47
G aines v ille
Eateries slated for Celebration Pointe, The Park Avenue
• Several new restaurants will be open in the fall for the grand opening of Celebration Pointe’s first phase. One is Rascal Flatts Bar & Grill, which will serve food picked out by the band and will be a venue for live music. This music-stars chain will be alongside others including Jimmy Buffet’s Margaritaville and Toby Keith’s I Love This Bar. • Miller’s Ale House, a Reggae Shack Café, and Kilwins Quality Confections will join the shops at Celebration Point.
• The shops on Park Avenue will soon be home to Taco Del Mar, Bangkok Square, Dunkin’ Donuts, and Baskin Robbins. A Bahama Breeze Island Grille is also set to open a Gainesville location in late July.
Source: Gainesville Sun, June 1, 2017
New subdivisions crowd southwest Alachua County • The outskirts of Gainesville are rapidly growing and developers are planning on several more neighborhoods west of the city. The housing market in this area is extremely hot, and residential development will continue to boom in the future.
• Suggestions have been made to push the urban’s city boundary father west than it currently is. This would significantly help with schools, “who are anticipated to reach maximum capacity shortly”, roadways which are already experiencing major traffic backups, and other infrastructure that will soon be brought up.
Source: Gainesville Sun, May 7, 2017
Micanopy’s YMCA Camp McConnell up for auction
• Since 1968, YMCA of the Palm Beaches has owned and operated YMCA Camp McConnell in Micanopy. The 211-acre property will soon be up for auction, since camper registration has dwindled over the years.
48
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
• The camp was intended for residents in Palm Beach County who would take buses to Micanopy and explore a completely different part of Florida. The majority of campers recently had been coming from nearby cities in North Florida instead of Palm Beach. • The camp is comprised of an Olympic size pool, canoeing, and a ropes course and will hopefully continue to operate as a camp or recreational facility under new owners.
Source: Gainesville Sun, May 30, 2017
Full-fledged Whole Foods coming to Gainesville
• Whole Foods, the Austin, Texas based organic grocery store, recently changed track from its initial plans of building a smaller store aimed at young adult shoppers to a full size store at 3490 SW Archer Road in Gainesville. Whole Foods will now take up 40,000 square feet of the 88,813 total square-foot building.
• Gainesville will become one of the first 13 cities to open a Whole Foods targeted to draw in a younger, hurried shopper with lower prices and a quicker shopping experience. Whole Foods will be in the Butler Town Center’s commercial center along with a Regal Cinema and P.F. Chang’s restaurant.
• With more than 465 stores and 91,000 employees in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, Whole Foods is the largest and one of the best known organic and natural food supermarkets.
Source: Gainesville Sun, April 21, 2017
G aines v ille Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0
0.5
Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate (percent)
12.0%
1
1.5
20000.0
(Millions 2000 $)
18000.0 16000.0
8.0%
14000.0 12000.0
4.0% 2.0%
2.5
Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product
10.0% 6.0%
2
10000.0
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate
8000.0
Gainesville Real Personal Income
Gainesville Payroll Employment 180.0
(Thousands)
170.0
15.0%
(percent change year ago)
10.0%
160.0 150.0
5.0%
140.0
0.0%
130.0 120.0
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Gross Metro Product
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Gainesville Payroll Employment
-5.0%
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Personal Income
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
49
G aines v ille
Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL
June 2017
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
8.8 -3.6 5.2 3.7
9.2 4.4 5.2 4
9.7 5 5.3 4.4
9.7 0.5 5.4 4.3
9.8 1.1 5.6 4.3
10.4 6.1 5.8 4.6
11 5.2 6.1 4.9
11.5 5 6.5 5
12.3 7 7.1 5.2
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
8.9 -2.8
9.2 3.5
9.4 2.3
9.3 -1.3
9.2 -0.2
9.7 4.5
10.1 4.9
10.5 3.9
11.1 5.3
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
33.5 33.6
34.8 34.7
36.3 35.2
36.2 34.5
36.4 34.2
38.2 35.4
39.7 36.6
41 37.4
43.4 38.9
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
40.3 3
40.8 1.3
41.4 1.4
42.1 1.8
43.1 2.2
44.3 2.9
45.2 2
46.5 3
49.2 5.7
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
127.4 -4.4
126.7 -0.6
126.7 0
128 1.1
128.9 0.7
131.1 1.7
134.9 2.9
139.3 3.2
144.3 3.6
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
4.7 -16
4.4 -5.7
4.4 -0.9
4.4 0.3
4.4 0.2
4.2 -3.5
4.5 5.1
4.7 5.6
4.8 2
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
122.7 -3.9
122.3 -0.4
122.3 0
123.6 1.1
124.5 0.7
126.9 1.9
130.4 2.8
134.6 3.2
139.4 3.6
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
4.6 -18.3
4.2 -9
3.8 -8.7
4.3 10.5
4.4 2.6
4.4 0.6
4.7 7.9
5.1 7.4
5.5 7.3
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
18.2 -6.8
17.9 -1.6
18 1
18.1 0.6
18.3 0.9
18.8 2.6
19.4 3.3
20.3 4.5
21.3 4.8
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
2.4 13.3 2.4
2.3 13.2 2.3
2.4 13.4 2.3
2.5 13.3 2.4
2.7 13.2 2.5
2.8 13.4 2.6
2.8 13.8 2.8
2.8 14.3 3.2
3 15 3.3
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
1.6 -13.8
1.5 -6.7
1.5 -0.6
1.5 -2.9
1.5 1.1
1.5 0.5
1.5 4.5
1.5 -1.6
1.5 1.6
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
6 -3.1
6 -0.4
6.1 1.9
6.3 3.6
6.2 -2
6.3 0.8
6.4 2
6.5 1.4
6.7 3.7
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
10.3 -3.9
10.4 0.6
10.8 3.6
11.3 4.5
11.4 1.3
12.3 8.2
12.9 4.8
13.8 6.8
14.6 5.8
22 0.1
22.1 0.8
22.4 1.1
22.8 2.2
23.1 1.1
23.7 2.7
24.2 1.8
24.8 2.4
25.5 3.1
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
13.6 -7.1
13.2 -3
13.3 0.7
13.4 0.7
13.8 2.9
13.8 0.3
14.6 5.3
15.2 4.1
15.9 4.6
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
4.2 -6.5
4.1 -2.8
4.1 0.6
4.1 -1.6
4.1 0.4
4.2 3.7
4.5 5.9
4.6 1.9
4.7 2.9
4.3 5.4
4.7 10.9
4.4 -6.2
4.4 -1.2
4.4 0.8
4.5 1.6
4.6 2.4
4.7 2
4.7 -0.6
37.9 -1.5
38.1 0.6
37.8 -0.9
37.5 -0.8
37.4 -0.3
37.4 0
37.6 0.7
38.2 1.6
39.1 2.3
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
263.6 0.7
264.9 0.5
266.9 0.7
268.6 0.6
270.1 0.6
273.3 1.2
277.1 1.4
281.2 1.5
284.8 1.3
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
136.5 -1.1
135.3 -0.9
135.9 0.4
136.7 0.6
136.1 -0.5
136.1 0.1
135.9 -0.2
139 2.3
144 3.6
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
50
Unemployment Rate (%)
7.2
8.1
7.7
6.8
5.8
5.3
4.6
4.3
3.7
Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
512 364 148
511 407 104
448 300 147
576 400 176
758 548 210
744 526 219
1079 645 434
948 512 436
1223 538 685
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
G aines v ille
Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL
June 2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
13 5.4 7.5 5.5
13.7 5.3 7.9 5.8
14.4 4.9 8.3 6
15.1 5 8.8 6.3
15.8 4.9 9.2 6.6
16.6 4.8 9.7 6.9
17.4 4.7 10.2 7.2
18.1 4.4 10.6 7.5
18.9 4.2 11.1 7.8
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
11.5 3.8
11.9 3.2
12.2 2.7
12.5 2.7
12.8 2.5
13.2 2.5
13.5 2.4
13.8 2.2
14 1.9
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
45.4 40.1
47.5 41.2
49.6 42.1
51.9 43.1
54.3 44.1
56.7 45
59.2 46
61.6 46.8
64 47.5
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
51.4 4.5
53.6 4.2
55.8 4.1
58.4 4.6
61.1 4.6
63.8 4.5
66.6 4.4
69.3 4.1
72 3.9
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
146.1 1.3
147.6 1
148.8 0.8
149.7 0.6
150.7 0.7
151.6 0.6
152.2 0.4
152.9 0.5
153.6 0.4
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
4.9 1.1
4.9 1.5
5 1.5
5.1 0.9
5.1 0.8
5.1 0.5
5.1 0.5
5.2 0.5
5.2 0.6
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
141.3 1.3
142.7 1
143.8 0.8
144.6 0.6
145.6 0.7
146.5 0.6
147 0.4
147.7 0.5
148.4 0.4
5.8 5.9
6 4.4
6.2 2.1
6.3 2.3
6.5 2.5
6.6 2.1
6.7 1.7
6.8 1.3
6.8 0.6
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
21.2 -0.3
21.1 -0.4
21 -0.6
20.9 -0.5
20.8 -0.5
20.7 -0.6
20.5 -0.8
20.4 -0.4
20.3 -0.5
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
3.1 15.1 3.4
3.1 15.1 3.4
3.1 15 3.4
3.1 15 3.4
3.1 14.8 3.3
3.1 14.7 3.3
3.1 14.6 3.3
3.1 14.5 3.3
3.1 14.4 3.3
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
1.6 0.7
1.6 0.1
1.6 0.6
1.6 0.3
1.6 0.6
1.6 0.9
1.6 0.8
1.6 0.4
1.6 0.4
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
6.8 1.6
6.9 0.8
6.9 0.2
6.9 0.4
7 0.6
7 0.4
7 0.4
7 0.3
7.1 0.3
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
15.3 4.8
15.9 3.8
16.1 1.5
16.4 2
16.9 2.8
17.4 2.7
17.6 1.6
18 1.9
18.4 2.3
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
25.7 0.8
26 0.9
26.3 1.3
26.5 0.8
26.7 0.6
26.9 0.8
27.1 0.8
27.4 1
27.7 1.1
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
16.3 3
16.5 0.9
16.6 0.9
16.8 0.8
16.8 0.2
16.7 -0.4
16.7 -0.5
16.6 -0.6
16.5 -0.6
4.8 2
4.8 0.4
4.8 0
4.8 0.1
4.8 -0.5
4.7 -0.8
4.7 -0.8
4.7 -0.2
4.7 -0.4
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
4.5 -4.4
4.3 -2.4
4.4 1.7
4.2 -3.9
4.2 -0.7
4.2 -0.5
4.2 -0.3
4.2 -0.1
4.2 -0.3
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
39.3 0.4
39.6 0.8
39.9 0.8
40.1 0.5
40.4 0.7
40.7 0.7
40.8 0.5
41 0.4
41.1 0.2
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
286.9 0.7
288.5 0.6
289.7 0.4
290.7 0.3
291.6 0.3
292.5 0.3
293.4 0.3
294.4 0.3
295.4 0.3
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
145.3 0.9
146.5 0.9
147.8 0.9
148.5 0.5
149 0.3
149.5 0.4
149.6 0.1
149.4 -0.2
149.2 -0.1
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
3.2
3
3.1
3.2
3.4
3.5
3.7
3.7
3.8
1387 699 687
1459 767 692
1499 768 731
1565 802 763
1597 819 778
1632 838 794
1656 862 794
1618 825 792
1583 786 797
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
51
G aines v ille
Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL
June 2017
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
19.7 4.1 11.6 8.1
20.6 4.5 12.1 8.5
21.6 5.2 12.8 8.9
22.8 5.2 13.4 9.3
23.9 5.1 14.1 9.8
25.2 5.1 14.9 10.2
26.4 5 15.7 10.7
27.8 5.1 16.5 11.3
29.2 5.1 17.3 11.9
30.6 5 18.1 12.5
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
14.3 2
14.7 2.5
15.2 3.2
15.6 3.1
16.1 3
16.6 3.1
17.1 2.9
17.6 3
18.1 3
18.7 2.9
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
66.4 48.3
69.2 49.4
72.5 50.8
76 52.2
79.6 53.6
83.4 55
87.2 56.4
91.3 57.9
95.6 59.4
99.9 60.9
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
74.8 3.9
78 4.3
81.7 4.7
85.5 4.7
89.5 4.6
93.6 4.6
97.9 4.5
102.4 4.6
107 4.5
111.8 4.5
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
154.1 0.3
154.7 0.4
155.5 0.5
156.5 0.7
157.5 0.6
158.7 0.7
159.5 0.5
160.2 0.4
160.9 0.5
161.7 0.5
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
5.2 0.3
5.2 -0.5
5.2 -0.4
5.2 -0.3
5.1 -0.5
5.1 -0.6
5.1 -0.7
5 -0.5
5 -0.2
5 -0.1
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
148.9 0.3
149.5 0.4
150.3 0.6
151.4 0.7
152.4 0.7
153.6 0.8
154.5 0.6
155.1 0.4
155.9 0.5
156.7 0.5
6.8 0
6.8 -0.5
6.9 0.9
7 1.6
7.1 2.4
7.3 1.7
7.4 1.5
7.5 1.8
7.6 1.6
7.8 1.6
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
20.3 -0.4
20.2 -0.3
20.1 -0.5
20 -0.5
20 -0.1
19.9 -0.3
19.9 -0.3
19.8 -0.4
19.7 -0.4
19.6 -0.4
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
3.1 14.4 3.3
3.1 14.3 3.3
3 14.3 3.3
3 14.2 3.3
3 14.3 3.3
3 14.3 3.3
3 14.3 3.2
3 14.3 3.2
2.9 14.3 3.2
2.9 14.4 3.1
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
1.6 0.4
1.6 0.9
1.7 1.3
1.7 1.1
1.7 1
1.7 1.1
1.7 1.2
1.8 1.4
1.8 1.6
1.8 1.5
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
7.1 0.1
7.1 0
7.1 0
7.1 0.3
7.1 0.5
7.1 0.4
7.2 0.2
7.2 0.2
7.2 0.1
7.2 0.1
18.6 1.3
18.9 1.6
19.3 1.9
19.5 1.1
19.9 1.9
20.3 2.1
20.5 1
20.7 0.7
20.8 0.8
21.1 1.1
28 1.2
28.3 0.9
28.5 0.8
28.7 0.8
29 0.9
29.3 1.1
29.5 0.8
29.7 0.5
29.8 0.3
29.8 0.3
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
16.4 -0.3
16.4 -0.1
16.4 0
16.4 0
16.5 0.6
16.6 0.4
16.6 0.5
16.7 0.2
16.8 0.7
16.9 0.5
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
4.6 -0.7
4.6 -0.8
4.6 -0.4
4.6 0.2
4.6 0.3
4.6 0.3
4.6 0.4
4.7 0.3
4.7 0.3
4.7 0.4
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
4.1 -0.4
4.2 0.8
4.2 1.3
4.6 7.5
4.4 -3.3
4.5 1.3
4.5 1.2
4.6 1.3
4.6 1.3
4.7 1.3
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
41.2 0.3
41.4 0.3
41.6 0.6
41.8 0.6
42.1 0.6
42.3 0.5
42.5 0.5
42.7 0.5
42.9 0.5
43.1 0.5
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
296.4 0.3
297.4 0.3
298.4 0.4
299.5 0.4
300.5 0.4
301.7 0.4
302.8 0.4
304 0.4
305.1 0.4
306.4 0.4
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
149.1 0
149.5 0.2
150.1 0.4
150.8 0.5
151.4 0.4
152.1 0.4
152.7 0.4
153.3 0.4
154 0.5
154.7 0.5
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
52
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
3.9
4.1
4
4
3.9
4
4
4
4
4
1545 754 791
1513 730 783
1546 755 790
1561 754 807
1586 770 816
1532 709 823
1573 742 831
1623 779 844
1623 769 854
1624 780 844
G aines v ille
Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL
June 2017
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
32.1 4.9 19 13.1
33.7 5 20 13.7
35.4 5.1 21 14.5
37.3 5.1 22 15.2
39.1 4.9 23.1 16
41 5 24.3 16.7
43.2 5.1 25.6 17.6
45.4 5.3 27 18.5
47.9 5.4 28.5 19.4
50.5 5.4 30.1 20.4
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
19.2 2.8
19.7 2.9
20.3 3.1
21 3.1
21.6 2.9
22.2 2.9
22.9 3.1
23.6 3.2
24.4 3.3
25.2 3.3
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
104.3 62.4
109.1 63.9
114.2 65.6
119.6 67.3
125 69
130.8 70.7
137 72.6
143.8 74.7
151 76.9
158.5 79.1
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
116.8 4.4
122 4.5
127.6 4.6
133.3 4.5
139.1 4.4
145.1 4.4
151.5 4.4
158.3 4.5
165.6 4.6
173.4 4.7
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
162.3 0.4
163 0.4
163.8 0.5
164.9 0.6
165.7 0.5
166.9 0.7
168.3 0.8
169.7 0.9
171.3 0.9
173 1
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
5 -0.2
5 -0.2
5 -0.2
5 -0.3
5 -0.2
4.9 -0.4
4.9 -0.3
4.9 -0.4
4.9 -0.7
4.8 -1.1
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
157.3 0.4
158 0.4
158.8 0.5
159.9 0.7
160.8 0.6
161.9 0.7
163.3 0.9
164.8 0.9
166.4 1
168.2 1
7.9 1.3
7.9 1
8 1.2
8.1 1
8.2 1.3
8.3 1.2
8.4 1.3
8.6 2
8.7 1.9
8.9 1.7
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
19.5 -0.4
19.5 -0.4
19.4 -0.4
19.3 -0.5
19.2 -0.3
19.2 -0.3
19.2 0.1
19.2 0.1
19.2 0
19.2 0.1
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
2.9 14.4 3.1
2.9 14.4 3
2.8 14.5 3
2.8 14.5 2.9
2.8 14.5 2.9
2.8 14.5 2.9
2.9 14.6 2.8
2.9 14.7 2.8
2.9 14.7 2.8
3 14.8 2.7
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
1.8 1.1
1.8 1
1.9 0.8
1.9 0.7
1.9 1.2
1.9 1.7
2 1.6
2 1.4
2 1.1
2 1
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
7.2 0
7.2 0.1
7.2 0
7.2 0.1
7.2 0.2
7.2 0.3
7.3 0.4
7.3 0.5
7.3 0.5
7.4 0.6
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
21.2 0.8
21.4 0.8
21.6 1
21.9 1.2
22.2 1.5
22.6 1.7
23.1 2.1
23.6 2.4
24.2 2.5
24.8 2.3
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
29.9 0.2
30 0.4
30.1 0.5
30.3 0.6
30.5 0.7
30.8 0.8
31.1 0.9
31.3 0.9
31.6 0.8
31.8 0.8
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
17 0.6
17 0.4
17.2 0.7
17.3 0.5
17.4 0.6
17.4 0.4
17.6 0.8
17.7 0.4
17.8 0.7
17.9 0.6
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
4.7 0.1
4.7 0.2
4.7 0.3
4.7 0.3
4.8 0.4
4.8 0.3
4.8 0.4
4.8 0.5
4.8 0.6
4.9 0.8
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
4.7 1.2
4.8 1.2
4.9 1
5.1 4.7
5 -2.5
5 1.4
5.1 1
5.1 1.4
5.2 1.3
5.3 1.4
43.4 0.5
43.6 0.5
43.8 0.6
44.1 0.6
44.4 0.6
44.7 0.6
44.9 0.6
45.2 0.6
45.6 0.8
46 1
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
307.6 0.4
308.9 0.4
310.2 0.4
311.5 0.4
312.8 0.4
313.9 0.4
314.9 0.3
315.9 0.3
317 0.4
318.4 0.4
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
155.4 0.4
156 0.4
156.6 0.4
157.4 0.5
158.1 0.5
158.7 0.4
159.3 0.4
160 0.4
160.5 0.4
161.2 0.4
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
4
4
4
4
4
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.2
4.1
1596 769 827
1574 756 818
1586 770 816
1573 757 816
1556 758 798
1547 761 786
1561 783 778
1586 814 773
1586 812 774
1585 811 774
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
53
G aines v ille
Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL
June 2017
2017Q2
2017Q3
2017Q4
2018Q1
2018Q2
2018Q3
2018Q4
2019Q1
2019Q2
2019Q3
2019Q4
2020Q1
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
12.3 7.5 7.1 5.2
12.4 6.8 7.2 5.3
12.6 6.9 7.3 5.3
12.8 5.9 7.4 5.4
12.9 5.2 7.5 5.4
13.1 5.1 7.6 5.5
13.3 5.3 7.7 5.6
13.5 5.3 7.8 5.7
13.6 5.4 7.9 5.7
13.8 5.3 8 5.8
13.9 5.1 8.1 5.8
14.1 4.8 8.2 5.9
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
11.1 5.7
11.2 5
11.3 5.4
11.4 4.5
11.5 3.6
11.5 3.5
11.6 3.5
11.8 3.4
11.8 3.4
11.9 3.3
12 2.9
12.1 2.7
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
43.2 38.8
43.6 39.1
44.1 39.4
44.6 39.7
45.1 40
45.6 40.2
46.1 40.5
46.7 40.8
47.2 41.1
47.7 41.3
48.2 41.5
48.7 41.7
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
49.1 6.2
49.5 5.2
50 5.4
50.6 5
51.1 4
51.7 4.3
52.3 4.6
52.8 4.4
53.3 4.4
53.9 4.2
54.4 4
54.9 4.1
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
143.9 4.1
144.6 3.4
145.2 3
145.6 1.6
146 1.4
146.3 1.2
146.6 1
147.1 1.1
147.5 1
147.8 1
148.1 1
148.2 0.7
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
4.8 3.5
4.8 1.1
4.8 0.8
4.8 0.9
4.9 1.2
4.9 1.1
4.9 1.4
4.9 1.3
4.9 1.3
5 1.6
5 1.8
5 1.7
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
139.1 4.1
139.8 3.5
140.3 3.1
140.8 1.7
141.1 1.4
141.5 1.2
141.7 1
142.2 1.1
142.6 1
142.9 1
143.1 1
143.2 0.7
5.4 8
5.5 6.6
5.6 5.7
5.7 5.3
5.7 5.9
5.8 6.6
5.9 5.8
6 5.8
6 4.9
6.1 3.9
6.1 3.1
6.1 2.3
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
21.3 5.2
21.3 4.3
21.3 3.6
21.2 -0.1
21.2 -0.2
21.2 -0.3
21.2 -0.4
21.2 -0.3
21.2 -0.3
21.1 -0.4
21.1 -0.5
21.1 -0.5
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
3 15 3.3
3 15.1 3.4
3 15.1 3.4
3.1 15.1 3.4
3.1 15.1 3.4
3.1 15.1 3.4
3.1 15.1 3.4
3.1 15.1 3.4
3.1 15.1 3.4
3.1 15.1 3.4
3.1 15.1 3.4
3.1 15.1 3.4
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
1.5 3.6
1.5 1
1.5 2
1.6 0.4
1.6 1.4
1.5 0.7
1.5 0.2
1.5 -0.9
1.6 -0.7
1.6 0.5
1.6 1.5
1.6 1.2
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
6.7 5.2
6.7 2.8
6.8 2.2
6.8 2.3
6.8 1.8
6.8 1.4
6.9 1.1
6.9 1.1
6.9 0.9
6.9 0.6
6.9 0.5
6.9 0.3
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
14.5 6.3
14.7 5.1
14.8 5.2
15.1 4.7
15.3 5.2
15.4 4.9
15.5 4.5
15.7 4.4
15.9 4
16 3.6
16 3.3
16 2
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
25.5 3.4
25.6 3.1
25.6 2.9
25.7 1.1
25.7 0.9
25.8 0.7
25.8 0.7
25.9 0.9
25.9 0.8
26 0.8
26.1 1
26.2 1.1
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
15.8 5
16 5.9
16.2 5.2
16.3 4.6
16.3 3.4
16.4 2.3
16.4 1.6
16.4 1.1
16.5 0.9
16.5 0.9
16.5 0.8
16.6 0.8
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
4.7 4
4.7 2.9
4.7 1.1
4.8 2.5
4.8 2.3
4.8 1.9
4.8 1.3
4.8 0.9
4.8 0.6
4.8 0.3
4.8 0
4.8 -0.1
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
4.7 0.9
4.7 -0.9
4.6 -2.7
4.5 -3.4
4.5 -4.3
4.4 -5.2
4.4 -4.8
4.4 -3.2
4.4 -2.5
4.3 -2
4.3 -2
4.2 -5.3
39.1 2.6
39.1 2.2
39.2 2.2
39.2 0.6
39.2 0.5
39.3 0.4
39.3 0.3
39.4 0.5
39.5 0.7
39.6 1
39.7 1.1
39.8 1.1
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
284.5 1.4
285.2 1.2
285.7 1.1
286.2 0.9
286.7 0.8
287.1 0.7
287.5 0.6
288 0.6
288.3 0.6
288.7 0.5
289 0.5
289.3 0.5
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
144.1 4.4
144.4 3.6
144.6 2.9
144.8 1.3
145.1 0.7
145.5 0.7
145.8 0.8
146.1 0.8
146.4 0.8
146.7 0.9
147.1 0.9
147.4 0.9
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
54
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.1
3
3
3
2.9
3
3
1214 520 693
1231 547 684
1256 582 674
1336 638 698
1400 684 715
1390 726 665
1420 750 671
1435 769 666
1472 768 704
1462 768 694
1467 763 704
1472 760 712
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
J ackson v ille
PROFILES
OUTLOOK SUMMARIES
The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport.
The Jacksonville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see moderate growth in most of the economic indicators, relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income will see an average growth rate of 5.9 percent. The real per capita income level is expected to average $44,200, the third highest of the twelve studied MSAs. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.8 percent, the second lowest of the studied MSAs, while the average annual wage level is expected to be $57,500. Population growth will be moderate at an average annual rate of 1.5 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 69,758.93 million dollars. Employment growth is expected to average 2.5 percent annually. Unemployment will average 3.6 percent in the MSA. The fastest growing sector in the Jacksonville MSA will be Construction and Mining, which will see an average annual growth rate of 5.0 percent. Following that sector is the Professional and Business Services sector, with an average annual growth rate of 4.9 percent, and then the Leisure and Education and Health Services sectors, with an average growth rate of 2.8 and 2.5 percent, respectively. The Federal Government sector is expected to decline, with average annual growth rate of -1.0 percent.
QUICK FACTS:
• Metro population estimate of 1,394,624 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Baker County population estimate of 27,013 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).
• Clay County population estimate of 196,399 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).
• Duval County population estimate of 885,855 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Nassau County population estimate of 75,710 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).
• St. Johns County population estimate of 209,647 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 759,551 in May 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).
• An unemployment rate of 3.8% as of May 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 28,871 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:
• Naval Air Station Jacksonville – 25,240 • Duval County Public Schools – 14,480 • Naval Station Mayport – 9,000 • City of Jacksonville – 8,820
• Baptist Health Systems – 8,270
• Bank of America Merrill Lynch – 8,000 • Florida Blue – 6,500
• Mayo Clinic – 4,970 • Citi – 4,200
• JP Morgan Chase – 4,200 Source: City of Jacksonville Office of Economic Development
METRO NEWS SUMMARIES More Jacksonville kids to access city-funded camps this summer
• O ne million dollars in additional funding will be used for summer camp programs in Jacksonville. Mayor Lenny Curry made this announcement to help alleviate concerns about there being not enough city-funded camps for children. • Jacksonville Children’s Commission wanted to improve the quality of the programs and rebid camp contracts; this would result in fewer locations and fewer kids that could be serviced. • Now with the additional money, about 1,700 more kids and 24 more camp locations will be funded.
Source: Florida Times Union, June 2, 2017
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
55
J ackson v ille
Banking, finance seeks to add 50 jobs to the Southbank
• An Australian based international finance and banking company opened its first office in Jacksonville last year. The company, Macquarie, is hoping to add 50 new jobs if it receives up to $50,000 in city incentives. • The office in Riverplace Tower on the Southbank could soon have a human resources and business services group, where the 50 new jobs would be placed, with an average salary of $56,160.
• The proposal includes a tax refund of $5,000 per employee; the city would be responsible for $50,000, and the rest would come from the state. The proposal has already been approved by the mayor’s Budget Review Committee and will go to the City Council next.
Source: Florida Times Union, May 8, 2017
Senior living center planned for Tamaya
• A new development at Beach and Kernan Boulevards in Jacksonville has a huge price tag of $40 million. The facility will be called Grand Living at Tamaya and will be a new senior living center.
• The facility will consist of 165 units of independent, memory, and assisted living care. It will have five dining areas (including casual and formal, along with a bistro), a fitness center with personal trainers, grand lounge, and a 150-seat performance theater. • Construction is expected to start in October and is estimated to take about 16 months.
Source: Florida Times Union, June 2, 2017
Jacksonville in running for another major distribution facility
• A 1.3 million square-foot facility is up for grabs and Jacksonville could potentially be the home. Two out of the four potential sites are located in Jacksonville are in the running for an unnamed company’s distribution center.
56
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
• A meeting between Jacksonville officials and the company’s officials consisted of discussing incentives, an overview of transportation, and state and local options. They also toured Imeson International Industrial Park, one of the largest industrial parks in Jacksonville, and possibly a potential finalist for the facility.
• If the unnamed company does pick Jacksonville as the site for its facility, they intend to hire at least 800 employees.
Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, April 21, 2017
Owners of The Roost to open another new restaurant this summer in Jacksonville • The Local, a 70-seat restaurant, will be opening mid-to-late June at 4578 San Jose Blvd. in Jacksonville. The idea is to bring a “big city café” to Jacksonville using fresh ingredients and serving standard items with unique twists.
• It will be open seven days a week from 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. and will serve breakfast, lunch, dinner, coffee, fresh-squeezed juice, craft beer, and smoothies. An exclusive espresso-based coffee has been created and will only be served at The Local. • The seating will consist of inside seats, individual tables, a farm table, couches, two bar areas, and an outdoor patio with a fenced in grassy area for children to run around outside.
Source: Florida Times Union, May 5, 2017
J ackson v ille Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate (percent)
12.0%
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product 160000.0
10.0%
140000.0
8.0%
120000.0
(Millions 2000 $)
100000.0
6.0%
80000.0
4.0% 2.0%
1
60000.0
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate
40000.0
Jacksonville Real Personal Income
Jacksonville Payroll Employment 1100.0
(Thousands)
1000.0
10.0%
(percent change year ago)
5.0%
900.0 800.0
0.0%
700.0
-5.0%
600.0 500.0
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Gross Metro Product
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Jacksonville Payroll Employment
-10.0%
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Personal Income
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
57
J ackson v ille
Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL
June 2017
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
49.9 -5.5 27.3 22.6
52.2 4.6 27.7 24.4
55 5.5 28.5 26.5
57.3 4.1 29.8 27.5
57.9 1 30.5 27.4
60.8 5 32.1 28.7
64.1 5.5 33.8 30.3
67.4 5.2 35.9 31.6
71.2 5.5 38.1 33
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
50 -4.6
51.9 3.7
53.3 2.7
54.6 2.3
54.4 -0.3
56.2 3.3
59.1 5.1
61.5 4.1
63.9 3.8
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
37.3 37.4
38.6 38.4
40.3 39.1
41.5 39.5
41.4 38.9
42.7 39.5
44.1 40.7
45.5 41.5
47.1 42.3
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
45.3 0.8
46.4 2.4
47.1 1.7
48.7 3.3
48.9 0.3
50.2 2.8
51.1 1.7
52.6 2.9
54.2 3
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
583.5 -5.7
579.9 -0.6
586.2 1.1
594.4 1.4
607.9 2.3
624.1 2.7
646.1 3.5
667.9 3.4
689.9 3.3
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
29.2 -9.9
27.5 -6.1
27.4 -0.2
27.9 1.6
27.8 -0.3
28 0.8
29 3.6
29.4 1.4
29.9 1.8
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
554.3 -5.4
552.5 -0.3
558.8 1.2
566.6 1.4
580.1 2.4
596.1 2.8
617.1 3.5
638.5 3.5
659.9 3.4
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
33.4 -23.4
29.2 -12.7
27.5 -5.6
27.8 1.1
30.2 8.5
32.7 8.2
35.6 9.1
39 9.6
40.4 3.4
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
126.9 -6.9
124.3 -2
124.1 -0.2
125.4 1.1
127.8 1.9
130.7 2.3
135.2 3.4
137.9 2
141.4 2.5
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
26.7 69.5 30.7
25.6 68.7 30
24.8 69 30.3
24.7 70.2 30.5
24.7 71.6 31.5
24 73.6 33
25.1 75.8 34.2
26.1 77.5 34.4
26.3 81.2 34.4
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
10.3 1.2
10.2 -1.7
9.6 -5.6
9.2 -4
9.2 -0.6
9.2 0.7
9.3 0.8
9.4 1.7
9.5 0.5
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
55.7 -6.7
55.7 -0.1
58 4.1
60 3.5
61.5 2.4
60.9 -1
61.5 1
64 4.2
65.7 2.6
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
79.4 -5.7
82.3 3.7
87.5 6.3
90.9 3.9
94 3.3
98.2 4.5
100.7 2.5
101.5 0.8
106.9 5.3
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
83.7 2.5
85.7 2.4
87.8 2.4
89.2 1.6
91.3 2.3
93.4 2.4
97.6 4.4
102.8 5.3
106.9 4
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
65.3 -3.8
65 -0.4
66.3 2
69 4.1
71.8 4.1
75.5 5.1
79.9 5.8
83 3.9
86.5 4.3
23.2 -10.1
23 -0.9
21.6 -6
20.3 -5.9
20.6 1.5
21.7 5.3
23.1 6.2
25.4 10
26.8 5.6
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
17.5 2.3
18 2.9
17.3 -3.9
17.3 -0.4
17 -1.5
16.8 -1
17.1 1.6
17.6 2.7
17.7 0.6
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
58.8 -1.1
59 0.4
59.2 0.2
57.4 -3
56.8 -0.9
56.9 0.2
57.3 0.6
57.8 0.9
58.2 0.8
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
1336.9 1
1350.7 1
1364.5 1
1381.1 1.2
1398.9 1.3
1423.5 1.8
1451.9 2
1481.9 2.1
1510.1 1.9
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
684.1 -0.9
696.9 1.9
701.5 0.7
704.1 0.4
709 0.7
716.3 1
719.2 0.4
734.2 2.1
757.5 3.2
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
58
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
10
10.7
9.7
8.2
7
6.2
5.3
4.7
4.1
4939 3403 1536
3724 3572 152
3591 3192 400
6400 4571 1828
7249 6164 1085
7476 6246 1230
9594 7341 2252
11565 8992 2573
14481 8875 5606
J ackson v ille
Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL
June 2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
75.6 6.2 40.7 34.9
80.4 6.3 43.3 37
85 5.7 45.8 39.2
89.8 5.7 48.5 41.3
94.8 5.5 51.4 43.4
99.9 5.4 54.3 45.7
105.2 5.3 57.1 48.1
110.6 5.1 60.1 50.6
116.1 4.9 63.1 53
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
66.9 4.6
69.7 4.2
72.1 3.5
74.6 3.4
77 3.2
79.3 3.1
81.7 3
84 2.8
86.3 2.7
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
49.3 43.6
51.8 44.9
54.1 45.9
56.5 46.9
58.9 47.9
61.4 48.7
63.9 49.6
66.4 50.4
68.9 51.2
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
56.3 3.9
58.6 4.2
61 4
63.7 4.4
66.5 4.3
69.3 4.2
72.1 4.1
74.9 3.9
77.8 3.8
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
709.4 2.8
724.4 2.1
736 1.6
747 1.5
758.6 1.6
769.2 1.4
778.1 1.2
788 1.3
798 1.3
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
30.3 1
30.7 1.4
31.1 1.4
31.3 0.7
31.5 0.4
31.5 0.3
31.6 0.3
31.7 0.1
31.7 0.3
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
679.2 2.9
693.7 2.1
704.9 1.6
715.6 1.5
727.1 1.6
737.7 1.5
746.5 1.2
756.4 1.3
766.2 1.3
43.5 7.7
45.9 5.7
47.4 3.1
48.9 3.3
50.6 3.4
52.1 3
53.5 2.6
54.6 2.2
55.3 1.2
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
142.7 1
143.6 0.7
144.3 0.5
145.1 0.5
145.8 0.5
146.3 0.3
146.5 0.2
147.3 0.6
147.9 0.4
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
27 82.5 35.2
27.5 83.3 35.4
28 83.7 35.6
28.4 84.2 35.7
28.7 84.4 35.7
29 84.5 35.7
29.2 84.6 35.6
29.4 85.1 35.8
29.5 85.6 36.1
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
9.6 1.4
9.7 0.7
9.8 1.1
9.9 0.8
10 1.1
10.1 1.5
10.3 1.2
10.4 0.8
10.4 0.9
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
67.5 2.8
68.6 1.6
69.2 0.9
70.1 1.2
71 1.3
71.8 1.2
72.6 1.2
73.4 1.1
74.2 1.1
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
113.9 6.6
119.7 5.1
122.8 2.6
126.4 3
131.1 3.7
135.7 3.5
139 2.4
142.8 2.8
147.5 3.3
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
109.1 2
111 1.8
113.6 2.3
115.5 1.7
117.2 1.5
119.2 1.7
121.2 1.7
123.6 1.9
126 2
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
89.5 3.5
90.9 1.6
92.5 1.7
94 1.6
94.9 1
95.3 0.4
95.6 0.3
95.7 0.1
95.8 0.1
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
27.5 2.6
27.8 1.1
28 0.7
28.3 0.9
28.4 0.4
28.4 0.2
28.5 0.1
28.7 0.7
28.8 0.4
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
17 -3.9
16.6 -2.1
16.9 1.5
16.4 -2.9
16.4 -0.1
16.4 0
16.4 0.2
16.5 0.4
16.5 0.3
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
58.9 1.1
59.7 1.3
60.4 1.2
61 1
61.7 1.1
62.4 1.1
62.9 0.8
63.3 0.7
63.7 0.5
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
1532.5 1.5
1551.8 1.3
1570.4 1.2
1589.2 1.2
1608.1 1.2
1627.3 1.2
1646.5 1.2
1665.8 1.2
1685.2 1.2
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
764.3 0.9
773.2 1.2
784 1.4
792.1 1
799.9 1
807.7 1
813.8 0.8
819.3 0.7
825.7 0.8
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
3.5
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.8
3.9
4
4.1
14016 8749 5267
13111 8791 4320
13430 8956 4474
13961 9235 4727
14175 9383 4791
14287 9471 4816
14435 9651 4784
14159 9424 4735
13893 9175 4718
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
59
J ackson v ille
Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL
June 2017
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
121.7 4.8 66.2 55.5
128 5.1 69.6 58.4
135.4 5.8 73.7 61.7
143.1 5.7 78 65.1
151.4 5.8 82.7 68.7
160.1 5.7 87.7 72.4
169 5.6 92.6 76.3
178.6 5.7 97.8 80.7
188.7 5.7 103.4 85.3
199.2 5.6 109.2 90
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
88.6 2.7
91.4 3.1
94.8 3.8
98.3 3.6
101.9 3.7
105.7 3.6
109.4 3.5
113.3 3.6
117.3 3.6
121.4 3.5
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
71.4 52
74.2 53
77.7 54.4
81.2 55.8
85 57.2
88.9 58.7
92.8 60.1
97.1 61.6
101.5 63.1
106 64.6
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
80.7 3.7
84 4.1
87.9 4.6
91.8 4.5
96.1 4.6
100.3 4.5
104.9 4.5
109.6 4.5
114.6 4.5
119.7 4.4
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
806.4 1.1
814.8 1
824.8 1.2
835.6 1.3
847.6 1.4
860.1 1.5
870.1 1.2
879.4 1.1
889 1.1
899.2 1.1
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
31.7 0
31.5 -0.7
31.3 -0.6
31.2 -0.5
31 -0.6
30.7 -0.8
30.5 -0.9
30.3 -0.7
30.1 -0.4
30 -0.3
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
774.6 1.1
783.2 1.1
793.5 1.3
804.4 1.4
816.7 1.5
829.4 1.6
839.7 1.2
849.1 1.1
858.9 1.1
869.2 1.2
55.8 0.8
56 0.4
57 1.9
58.5 2.5
60.3 3.2
61.8 2.4
63.2 2.3
64.8 2.6
66.3 2.2
67.7 2.2
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
148.6 0.4
149.2 0.4
149.8 0.3
150.2 0.3
151.2 0.7
151.9 0.5
152.5 0.4
152.9 0.2
153.3 0.3
153.7 0.2
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
29.6 86.1 36.1
29.6 86.7 36.1
29.5 87.2 36.1
29.5 88 36
29.6 89.1 36.1
29.7 90 36
29.7 91 35.9
29.7 91.7 35.7
29.6 92.8 35.4
29.6 93.9 35
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
10.5 0.9
10.7 1.4
10.9 1.7
11 1.6
11.2 1.4
11.4 1.5
11.5 1.6
11.8 1.8
12 2
12.2 1.9
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
74.9 0.9
75.5 0.7
76 0.8
76.9 1.1
77.8 1.3
78.7 1.1
79.5 1
80.2 0.9
80.9 0.9
81.7 0.9
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
150.6 2.1
154.3 2.4
158.6 2.8
161.8 2
166.4 2.8
171.2 2.9
174.3 1.8
176.9 1.5
179.9 1.7
183.4 2
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
128.6 2
130.8 1.7
132.9 1.6
135 1.6
137.4 1.7
139.9 1.9
142 1.5
144 1.4
145.5 1.1
147.3 1.2
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
96.2 0.4
96.9 0.7
97.7 0.8
98.4 0.8
99.7 1.3
100.8 1.1
102 1.2
103 0.9
104.3 1.3
105.5 1.1
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
28.8 0.1
28.9 0.2
29 0.6
29.3 1
29.6 1.1
30 1.1
30.3 1.2
30.6 1.1
31 1
31.3 1.1
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
16.6 0.3
16.7 0.9
16.9 1.2
18.2 7.5
17.6 -3.6
17.8 1.2
18 1.1
18.2 1.1
18.4 1.2
18.6 1.1
64 0.5
64.2 0.4
64.6 0.6
65 0.7
65.5 0.7
65.9 0.7
66.3 0.6
66.8 0.7
67.3 0.7
67.7 0.7
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
1704.6 1.1
1723.9 1.1
1743.3 1.1
1762.5 1.1
1781.8 1.1
1801.1 1.1
1820.5 1.1
1839.8 1.1
1859.2 1.1
1878.7 1
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
833.2 0.9
842.1 1.1
851.7 1.1
861.5 1.2
871 1.1
880.6 1.1
890.3 1.1
899.9 1.1
910.3 1.2
920.8 1.1
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
60
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
4.2
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.2
4.2
4.3
4.3
4.2
4.2
13525 8875 4650
13139 8566 4572
13256 8689 4567
13419 8797 4622
13511 8882 4629
12975 8331 4644
13171 8511 4660
13553 8856 4697
13687 8958 4728
13708 9056 4652
J ackson v ille
Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL
June 2017
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
209.9 5.4 115.1 94.8
221.7 5.6 121.6 100.1
234.2 5.6 128.4 105.8
247.4 5.6 135.7 111.8
261.4 5.6 143.6 117.8
275.9 5.5 151.9 124
291.5 5.7 161.1 130.4
308.5 5.8 171 137.4
326.5 5.9 181.7 144.8
345.5 5.8 193.1 152.4
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
125.5 3.3
129.9 3.5
134.5 3.6
139.3 3.6
144.2 3.5
149.2 3.5
154.6 3.6
160.3 3.7
166.3 3.8
172.4 3.7
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
110.6 66.1
115.6 67.7
120.9 69.4
126.4 71.2
132.2 72.9
138.1 74.7
144.5 76.6
151.3 78.6
158.6 80.8
166.1 82.9
125 4.4
130.7 4.6
136.6 4.5
142.6 4.4
149.1 4.6
155.8 4.5
162.9 4.5
170.2 4.5
178 4.6
186.1 4.6
Personal Income (Billions $)
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
908 1
917 1
926.9 1.1
938.4 1.2
949.8 1.2
961.7 1.3
976.2 1.5
992.1 1.6
1008.5 1.7
1024.7 1.6
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
29.9 -0.5
29.8 -0.4
29.6 -0.4
29.5 -0.5
29.4 -0.4
29.2 -0.6
29 -0.5
28.9 -0.6
28.6 -0.8
28.3 -1.1
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
878.1 1
887.2 1
897.3 1.1
908.9 1.3
920.4 1.3
932.5 1.3
947.2 1.6
963.2 1.7
979.9 1.7
996.4 1.7
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
69.1 2
70.2 1.7
71.6 2
72.9 1.8
74.4 2
75.7 1.9
77.4 2.2
79.6 2.9
81.8 2.8
83.9 2.5
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
154 0.2
154.2 0.2
154.6 0.2
154.9 0.2
155.4 0.3
155.8 0.2
156.6 0.5
157.5 0.6
158.4 0.6
159.4 0.6
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
29.5 95 34.6
29.4 95.9 34.2
29.4 97 33.8
29.4 98 33.5
29.6 99.2 33.1
29.9 99.9 32.8
30.4 101 32.5
30.9 102 32.2
31.5 103 31.9
32.1 104 31.6
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
12.4 1.5
12.6 1.4
12.7 1.2
12.9 1.2
13.1 1.6
13.4 2
13.6 1.8
13.8 1.6
14 1.3
14.1 1.2
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
82.3 0.7
83 0.8
83.6 0.7
84.3 0.9
85 0.8
85.7 0.9
86.5 0.9
87.3 1
88.3 1.1
89.3 1.1
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
186.4 1.6
189.3 1.6
192.8 1.8
196.6 2
201.2 2.3
206 2.4
212.2 3
219.4 3.4
227 3.5
234.6 3.3
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
148.7 1
150.5 1.2
152.1 1.1
154.4 1.5
156.8 1.5
159.1 1.5
161.5 1.5
163.6 1.3
165.7 1.3
167.8 1.3
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
106.8 1.2
107.9 1.1
109.3 1.3
110.5 1.1
111.9 1.3
113 1
114.6 1.4
115.8 1
117.2 1.2
118.4 1
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
31.6 0.8
31.8 0.9
32.1 1
32.5 1
32.8 1
33.1 1
33.4 1
33.8 1.1
34.2 1.2
34.6 1.2
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
18.8 1.1
19 1
19.2 0.9
20.1 4.8
19.5 -2.8
19.7 1.2
19.9 0.7
20.1 1.2
20.3 1
20.5 1
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
68.2 0.7
68.7 0.7
69.2 0.8
69.8 0.8
70.4 0.8
70.9 0.8
71.6 0.9
72.3 1
73 1
73.7 1
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
1898.2 1
1917.8 1
1937.3 1
1957.2 1
1977.3 1
1997.5 1
2017.8 1
2038.4 1
2059.2 1
2080.2 1
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
930.9 1.1
940.3 1
949.6 1
960.5 1.1
971.3 1.1
982.5 1.2
993.9 1.2
1005.1 1.1
1017.1 1.2
1029.8 1.2
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.3
13491 8962 4529
13303 8848 4455
13287 8867 4420
13185 8788 4397
13102 8817 4286
13008 8802 4206
13134 8986 4148
13373 9267 4106
13485 9389 4096
13558 9473 4085
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
61
J ackson v ille
Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL
June 2017
2017Q2
2017Q3
2017Q4
2018Q1
2018Q2
2018Q3
2018Q4
2019Q1
2019Q2
2019Q3
2019Q4
2020Q1
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
70.6 5.6 37.8 32.8
71.7 4.9 38.4 33.3
72.8 5.8 39 33.7
74 6.2 39.8 34.2
75 6.2 40.4 34.6
76.1 6.2 41.1 35.1
77.4 6.4 41.7 35.7
78.6 6.3 42.4 36.2
79.8 6.4 43 36.8
81 6.3 43.6 37.3
82 6 44.2 37.8
83.2 5.8 44.8 38.4
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
63.5 3.9
64.2 3.2
65 4.3
65.8 4.8
66.5 4.7
67.2 4.6
68 4.6
68.7 4.4
69.4 4.4
70 4.3
70.6 3.9
71.2 3.6
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
46.9 42.1
47.4 42.4
47.9 42.8
48.5 43.2
49 43.4
49.6 43.8
50.2 44.1
50.9 44.5
51.5 44.8
52.1 45.1
52.6 45.3
53.2 45.5
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
54 3.3
54.3 2.4
54.7 2.5
55.4 3.3
55.9 3.6
56.6 4.1
57.2 4.5
57.8 4.4
58.4 4.3
58.9 4.2
59.5 4
60.1 4
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
686.7 3.4
692.9 2.7
698.5 3.6
703.7 3.3
707.9 3.1
711.5 2.7
714.7 2.3
719.3 2.2
722.8 2.1
726.3 2.1
729.1 2
731.2 1.7
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
29.9 2.7
30 1
30 0.5
30.1 0.7
30.3 1.1
30.3 1.1
30.4 1.3
30.5 1.3
30.6 1.3
30.8 1.5
30.9 1.6
31 1.6
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
656.7 3.5
662.9 2.7
668.4 3.8
673.6 3.4
677.6 3.2
681.2 2.8
684.4 2.4
688.8 2.2
692.1 2.1
695.5 2.1
698.2 2
700.2 1.7
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
39.9 2.2
40.6 1.6
41.6 6
42.3 7.5
43.1 8.1
43.9 8.1
44.6 7.3
45.2 6.8
45.7 6.2
46.2 5.3
46.6 4.4
46.9 3.7
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
141 2.2
141.6 1.7
142.1 3.4
142.3 1.2
142.6 1.1
142.9 0.9
143 0.6
143.4 0.8
143.5 0.7
143.7 0.6
143.9 0.6
144.2 0.6
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
26.2 81 34.3
26.4 81.5 34.5
26.7 81.8 34.9
26.9 82.3 35.1
27 82.4 35.2
27.1 82.5 35.2
27.2 82.7 35.3
27.3 83.1 35.3
27.4 83.2 35.4
27.6 83.4 35.5
27.7 83.4 35.5
27.8 83.6 35.5
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
9.5 0.6
9.5 0
9.5 -0.3
9.6 1.1
9.7 2.2
9.6 1.5
9.6 0.9
9.6 -0.3
9.7 -0.1
9.7 1.2
9.8 2.1
9.8 1.8
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
65.4 3
66 1.7
66.6 2.1
67.1 3.6
67.4 3
67.7 2.6
67.9 2.1
68.3 1.7
68.5 1.6
68.7 1.5
68.9 1.4
69 1.1
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
105.8 5.3
107.7 4.5
109.3 7.1
111.5 6.6
113.4 7.1
114.8 6.5
115.9 6
117.8 5.7
119.3 5.2
120.5 5
121.3 4.7
121.6 3.2
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
106.6 4.2
107.3 3.2
107.9 3.6
108.4 2.5
108.9 2.2
109.3 1.8
109.7 1.7
110.2 1.7
110.7 1.7
111.3 1.8
111.9 2
112.6 2.1
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
85.9 4.9
87.2 5
88.3 4
89 5.2
89.3 3.9
89.7 2.9
90.1 2.1
90.4 1.6
90.7 1.5
91.2 1.6
91.5 1.6
91.9 1.6
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
26.7 6.3
26.9 5.3
27.1 3.7
27.3 3.1
27.5 2.9
27.6 2.4
27.7 1.9
27.7 1.5
27.8 1.2
27.8 1
27.8 0.7
27.9 0.6
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
17.7 1.5
17.7 0.1
17.5 -1.5
17.3 -2.8
17.1 -3.8
16.9 -4.7
16.8 -4.3
16.7 -3.3
16.7 -2.3
16.6 -1.5
16.6 -1.2
16.1 -3.6
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
58.1 1
58.3 0.3
58.6 1.3
58.7 1.3
58.8 1.2
58.9 1
59.1 0.9
59.3 1
59.5 1.2
59.8 1.5
60 1.6
60.2 1.5
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
1507 1.9
1513.6 1.9
1519.7 1.8
1524.9 1.7
1530 1.5
1535 1.4
1540 1.3
1544.8 1.3
1549.5 1.3
1554.2 1.2
1558.8 1.2
1563.5 1.2
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
757.6 3.6
758.7 2.9
759.7 2.6
761.5 1
763.2 0.7
765.2 0.9
767.5 1
769.5 1.1
771.7 1.1
774.4 1.2
777.1 1.3
779.9 1.3
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
62
4
3.9
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.4
14390 8855 5534
14557 8715 5842
14528 8639 5889
14474 8688 5786
14307 8724 5583
13788 8799 4990
13495 8786 4709
13203 8780 4423
13134 8765 4370
13016 8801 4215
13091 8818 4274
13222 8863 4359
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
L akeland – W inter H a v en
PROFILES
OUTLOOK SUMMARIES
The Lakeland–Winter Haven MSA is comprised only of Polk County. It is located in the westerncenter of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus. Lakeland is the home to Legoland Florida and is also the location of Publix Supermarket headquarters. Each year the Detroit Tigers host spring training at Joker Marchant Stadium. Lakeland is also home to Florida Polytechnic University, the newest member of the State University System.
The Lakeland–Winter Haven Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow moderately at 5.4 percent annually, while the real per capita income level will average $32,800, the lowest of the twelve MSAs. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.8 percent, and the average annual wage level is expected to be at $49,400. Population growth is expected to average 1.5 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be at an average level of 19,196.60 million dollars. Employment growth is expected to average 2.0 percent annually. The unemployment rate for the metro will average 4.3 percent, the second highest of the twelve forecasted MSAs. The Construction and Mining sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 4.1 percent annual growth. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector averaging 4.0 percent annual growth, and the Federal Government and State and Local Government sectors averaging 1.6 and 1.5 percent, respectively. No sector will experience a decline.
QUICK FACTS:
• Population estimate of 623,009 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 294,486 in May 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).
• An unemployment rate of 4.4% as of May 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 12,935 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:
• Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 6,644
• Lakeland Regional Medical Center – 4,540
METRO NEWS SUMMARIES
• GEICO – 2,300
Department of Environmental Protection warning letter: BS Ranch may have committed 27 violations
• City of Lakeland – 2,600 • Watson Clinic – 1,600 • GC Services – 1,000 • Rooms To Go – 900
• Saddle Creek Logistics – 625
• Stryker Sustainability Solutions – 600 Source: Lakeland Economic Development Council
• Mary Yeargan, district director of Florida Department of Environmental Protection, wrote a letter to BS Ranch, informing that BS Ranch may have a total of 27 violations committed through the operation of their business. • The violations cover being unsuccessful in treating and managing human waste, providing up-to-date operation plans, as well as addressing offsite odors promptly. BS Ranch has faced multiple citations for odor complaints, though they have recently dwindled. • Brandy Stanton, president of BS Ranch, is working with the DEP to resolve this matter.
Source: The Ledger, May 14, 2017
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
63
L akeland – W inter H a v en
Legoland Florida opens Beach Retreat extendedstay bungalows in Winter Haven
• While Legoland had previously only run Legoland Hotel, a newer accommodation option called Beach Retreat opened in April, which was a few weeks ahead of schedule, and the project remained on budget.
• Beach Retreat hosts a total of 83 bungalows with cheaper prices when compared to the Legoland Hotel and will vary by the season. A total of 250 employees will be hired for the beach-themed accommodation. • Legoland General Manager Adrian Jones stated, “ … I think the strategy is pretty clear that themed accommodations, which we’re very, very good at, really does fuel growth in the park and also in the immediate area because it’s all about keeping people longer.”
Plans submitted for downtown Winter Haven’s 1st hotel • Though the brand name has not yet been released, Winter Haven will be welcoming its first downtown hotel.
• The new hotel is part of Winter Haven’s plans to attract events and visitors to the downtown area. In addition to the hotel, the city has also obtained Nora Mayo Hall for event space and in 2019, a field house is planned to open for sporting and business events.
• Katie Worthington, CEO of the Greater Winter Haven Chamber of Commerce, commented on the planned hotel, stating, “Once you get into the economic analysis and the need for space, it’s not a stretch at all to put it downtown. I think one area where you’ll see this shine is with corporate travel.”
Source: The Ledger, April 7, 2017
Source: The Ledger, May 7, 2017
New home construction in Polk continues at a blistering pace
Wildwood Antique Mall in North Lakeland sells old merchandise but is not old-fashioned
• Current single-family home construction has set a pace projecting over 4,000 permits in 2017 in Polk County. This past year, Polk County issued 3,282 permits for single-family homes. • A total of 987 permits have been issued for single-family homes in the first quarter of 2017, which is a 39% increase year over year.
• In March of 2017, 39.6% more single-family permits were issued compared to March of 2016. Nationally, 13.5% more single-family permits were issued in March of 2017 compared to the same time last year.
Source: The Ledger, April 23, 2017
64
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
• Wildwood Antique Mall, owned by Manny Pesco, has been in operation since 2011 and is one of four Wildwood Mall locations that, when combined, made $4 million in gross sales last year. • Wildwood rents out space to antique vendors for $2.35 per square foot for regular space and for $2.55 per square foot for electric-supplied space. Wildwood offers a total of 300 rental spaces, with 280 currently rented out.
• While most of its customers are 50 years of age or older, millennials “make up a growing share of the market.”
Source: The Ledger, May 14, 2017
L akeland – W inter H a v en Lakeland – Winter Haven MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0
0.5
Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate (percent)
14.0% 12.0%
1.5
2
2.5
Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product 40000.0
(Millions 2000 $)
35000.0 30000.0
10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%
1
25000.0 20000.0 15000.0 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate
10000.0
Lakeland Payroll Employment 300.0
(Thousands)
Lakeland Real Personal Income 8.0%
280.0
6.0%
260.0
4.0%
240.0
2.0%
220.0
0.0%
200.0
-2.0%
180.0
-4.0%
160.0
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Lakeland Payroll Employment
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Gross Metro Product
-6.0%
(percent change year ago)
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Personal Income
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
65
L akeland – W inter H a v en
Annual Outlook for Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
June 2017
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
17.4 -3.8 7.7 9.7
18.5 6.6 7.7 10.8
19.7 6.6 7.7 12
19.7 0 8 11.7
20 1.1 8.3 11.6
20.9 4.9 8.7 12.2
21.9 4.7 9.1 12.8
22.9 4.6 9.7 13.2
24.1 5.2 10.4 13.8
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
17.4 -2.9
18.4 5.7
19.1 3.9
18.8 -1.8
18.8 -0.2
19.4 3.3
20.2 4.4
20.9 3.5
21.7 3.6
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
29 29.1
30.6 30.5
32.3 31.3
32 30.5
31.9 30
32.9 30.4
33.6 31
34.3 31.3
35.3 31.7
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
39 0.9
39.9 2.2
40.5 1.7
41.3 1.8
42 1.7
42.9 2.1
43.7 2.1
45.1 3
46.5 3.3
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
195.8 -5.2
191.1 -2.4
189.9 -0.6
192.5 1.4
197.1 2.4
201.5 2.2
207.8 3.1
214.6 3.3
221.5 3.2
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
14.8 -9.3
14.2 -4.3
14.2 -0.1
14.6 2.9
15.9 8.7
16.4 3.3
16.6 1.2
17.1 3.1
17 -0.5
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
181 -4.9
176.8 -2.3
175.7 -0.6
177.9 1.2
181.3 1.9
185.1 2.1
191.2 3.3
197.5 3.3
204.5 3.5
12.1 -15.3
11 -8.8
10.3 -6
10.2 -1.3
10.9 6.8
11.4 4.1
12.1 6.8
12.7 5.1
13.3 4.3
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
45.3 -5.9
44.9 -1
45.9 2.3
47.1 2.5
48.1 2.1
49.4 2.8
51.7 4.6
52.8 2.2
54.8 3.6
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
9.1 24.2 12
8.7 24.2 12
9 24.4 12.5
9.2 24.6 13.2
9.4 25.4 13.3
9.5 26.5 13.5
10.1 27.2 14.4
10.2 27.5 15.2
10.5 28.7 15.9
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
1.9 -9.2
1.8 -7
1.6 -6.7
1.6 -3
1.6 -1.5
1.6 1.1
1.6 1
1.7 4.7
1.7 -0.9
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
12 -3.4
11.8 -1.7
11.6 -1.5
11.4 -1.4
11.6 1.7
11.7 1
12.2 3.7
12.6 3.9
12.8 1.5
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
27.4 -7.5
25.7 -6.3
24.3 -5.4
25.4 4.5
26 2.4
27.1 4.2
27.5 1.5
28.8 4.8
29.9 3.7
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
29 -1.4
29.2 0.5
29.6 1.7
29.4 -0.9
30.1 2.3
30.5 1.3
31.1 2.2
31.7 2
32.9 3.6
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
17.3 -4.5
16.8 -3.3
17.8 5.9
18.9 6.2
19.6 4
20.8 5.8
22.1 6.4
23.2 5
24.3 4.5
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
6.1 -5.6
5.8 -4.5
5.4 -7.1
5.3 -1.9
5.3 0.2
5.6 5.3
5.7 1.8
5.9 3.2
6 2.2
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
1.4 -1.3
1.6 15.8
1.2 -24.7
1.1 -7.6
1.1 -3.7
1 -6.2
1.1 6.6
1.1 2.4
1.1 1.7
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
28.5 0.6
28.4 -0.4
27.9 -1.8
27.5 -1.4
27 -1.7
26.1 -3.4
26.1 0.1
26.9 2.8
27.8 3.5
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
599.3 0.7
604.1 0.8
610.3 1
616.3 1
624.5 1.3
636.9 2
651.7 2.3
668.2 2.5
683.7 2.3
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
278.9 -0.1
278.5 -0.2
276.9 -0.6
277.2 0.1
278.5 0.5
278.7 0
279.6 0.3
284.9 1.9
295.5 3.7
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
66
Unemployment Rate (%)
11.3
12.1
11.3
9.6
8.2
7.2
6.3
5.6
4.8
Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
1203 1190 13
1229 1173 56
1117 1062 55
1454 1400 54
1943 1915 28
2508 2502 6
3056 3021 35
3998 3123 875
4200 3867 333
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
L akeland – W inter H a v en
Annual Outlook for Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
June 2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
25.5 5.6 11 14.5
26.9 5.7 11.6 15.3
28.4 5.2 12.2 16.1
29.8 5.2 12.8 17
31.3 5 13.5 17.8
32.8 4.9 14.2 18.6
34.4 4.8 14.9 19.5
36 4.6 15.6 20.4
37.6 4.4 16.3 21.3
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
22.5 4
23.4 3.7
24.1 3
24.8 2.9
25.4 2.7
26.1 2.5
26.7 2.5
27.3 2.3
27.9 2.1
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
36.7 32.4
38.4 33.3
40 33.9
41.6 34.5
43.2 35.1
44.8 35.6
46.5 36.1
48.1 36.6
49.8 37
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
48.3 3.8
50.3 4.2
52.3 4
54.5 4.2
56.8 4.2
59.1 4.1
61.4 3.9
63.8 3.8
66.2 3.8
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
226.2 2.1
229.6 1.5
232.1 1.1
234.3 1
237 1.1
239.3 1
240.9 0.7
242.7 0.8
244.5 0.8
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
17.2 1
17.4 1.3
17.6 1.3
17.8 0.7
17.9 0.5
17.9 0.3
17.9 0.2
18 0.1
18 0.2
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
209.1 2.2
212.1 1.5
214.4 1.1
216.6 1
219.1 1.2
221.4 1
222.9 0.7
224.7 0.8
226.5 0.8
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
14.1 6
14.7 4.1
15 1.9
15.3 2.2
15.7 2.5
16 2
16.2 1.4
16.4 1.1
16.5 0.4
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
55.1 0.7
55.3 0.3
55.4 0.2
55.5 0.3
55.7 0.3
55.8 0.1
55.7 -0.1
55.9 0.3
56 0.2
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
10.7 29.2 16.2
10.8 29.4 16.4
11 29.5 16.5
11 29.5 16.6
11.1 29.5 16.7
11.2 29.4 16.7
11.2 29.3 16.7
11.2 29.3 16.9
11.2 29.4 17.1
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
1.7 1
1.7 0.1
1.7 0.7
1.7 0.4
1.7 0.7
1.7 1
1.7 0.7
1.7 0.2
1.8 0.2
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
13.1 2.1
13.2 1
13.3 0.4
13.4 0.7
13.5 0.9
13.6 0.7
13.7 0.7
13.8 0.6
13.8 0.5
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
31.6 5.8
33 4.4
33.7 2.1
34.6 2.6
35.7 3.4
36.9 3.2
37.7 2.1
38.6 2.4
39.7 2.9
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
33.3 1.4
33.7 1.2
34.3 1.8
34.8 1.2
35.1 1.1
35.6 1.2
36 1.3
36.6 1.5
37.1 1.6
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
24.9 2.7
25.1 0.8
25.4 1
25.6 0.9
25.7 0.4
25.7 -0.2
25.6 -0.3
25.4 -0.6
25.3 -0.6
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
6.1 1.3
6.1 -0.2
6.1 -0.5
6 -0.2
6 -0.5
6 -0.8
5.9 -0.9
5.9 -0.4
5.8 -0.7
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
1.1 -4
1 -2.3
1.2 10.8
1 -11.3
1 -0.3
1 -0.2
1 0.1
1 -0.5
1 -1
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
28 0.8
28.3 0.9
28.5 0.8
28.7 0.6
28.9 0.8
29.2 0.8
29.3 0.5
29.4 0.4
29.5 0.1
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
694.4 1.6
702.2 1.1
709.1 1
716.6 1.1
724.4 1.1
732.1 1.1
739.7 1
747.3 1
754.9 1
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
299.2 1.2
303.1 1.3
307.5 1.5
311.2 1.2
314.4 1
317.5 1
319.6 0.7
321 0.4
322.7 0.5
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
4.3
4
4.1
4.2
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.8
4798 4087 711
5014 4028 986
5131 4025 1106
5309 4147 1162
5380 4184 1196
5384 4208 1176
5505 4287 1218
5301 4077 1224
5064 3858 1206
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
67
L akeland – W inter H a v en
Annual Outlook for Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
June 2017
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
39.2 4.3 17 22.2
41 4.6 17.8 23.2
43.1 5.2 18.7 24.4
45.2 4.9 19.7 25.5
47.5 5.1 20.8 26.7
49.9 5 21.9 28
52.4 4.9 23 29.3
55 5 24.2 30.8
57.7 4.9 25.4 32.3
60.5 4.8 26.7 33.8
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
28.5 2.2
29.3 2.6
30.2 3.1
31.1 2.9
32 3
32.9 3
33.9 2.8
34.9 2.9
35.9 2.9
36.9 2.8
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
51.4 37.4
53.2 38
55.4 38.8
57.6 39.6
60 40.4
62.5 41.2
64.9 42
67.5 42.8
70.3 43.7
73 44.5
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
68.7 3.7
71.5 4.1
74.8 4.6
78.1 4.5
81.7 4.6
85.4 4.5
89.2 4.5
93.2 4.5
97.4 4.4
101.6 4.4
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
245.9 0.6
247.2 0.5
249 0.7
250.6 0.7
253.1 1
255.4 0.9
257 0.6
258.4 0.5
259.8 0.6
261.4 0.6
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
18 0
17.9 -0.7
17.8 -0.6
17.7 -0.6
17.5 -0.7
17.4 -0.9
17.2 -0.9
17.1 -0.7
17 -0.5
17 -0.4
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
227.9 0.6
229.4 0.6
231.2 0.8
233 0.8
235.5 1.1
238 1.1
239.8 0.8
241.3 0.6
242.8 0.6
244.4 0.7
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
16.4 -0.2
16.3 -0.8
16.4 0.5
16.6 1.3
17 2.2
17.2 1.5
17.4 1.3
17.7 1.5
17.9 1.4
18.2 1.4
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
56.2 0.2
56.3 0.2
56.3 0.1
56.3 0
56.6 0.4
56.7 0.2
56.8 0.1
56.7 -0.1
56.7 -0.1
56.6 -0.1
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
11.2 29.5 17.2
11.2 29.5 17.2
11.1 29.5 17.3
11 29.7 17.3
11 30 17.4
11 30.2 17.4
11 30.4 17.4
11 30.5 17.4
10.9 30.8 17.3
10.8 31 17.2
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
1.8 0.2
1.8 0.6
1.8 1
1.8 0.9
1.8 0.8
1.8 0.9
1.9 1
1.9 1.1
1.9 1.3
1.9 1.2
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
13.9 0.4
13.9 0.2
14 0.2
14 0.5
14.1 0.7
14.2 0.6
14.3 0.4
14.3 0.4
14.4 0.3
14.4 0.3
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
40.4 1.8
41.3 2.1
42.3 2.5
43 1.6
44 2.4
45.1 2.5
45.8 1.4
46.3 1.1
46.9 1.3
47.6 1.6
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
37.7 1.6
38.3 1.4
38.7 1.2
39.2 1.2
39.7 1.3
40.3 1.5
40.8 1.2
41.1 0.9
41.4 0.7
41.7 0.7
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
25.2 -0.2
25.3 0.1
25.3 0.1
25.3 0.1
25.5 0.6
25.6 0.5
25.7 0.5
25.8 0.3
25.9 0.6
26.1 0.5
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
5.8 -0.9
5.7 -0.8
5.7 -0.4
5.7 0
5.7 0
5.7 0
5.7 0.1
5.7 0
5.7 -0.1
5.7 0
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
1 -1.1
1 3.9
1.1 6.3
1.3 14.5
1.3 1.6
1.4 6.3
1.4 6.1
1.5 6.2
1.6 6.3
1.7 6.2
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
29.5 0.2
29.6 0.1
29.7 0.3
29.8 0.4
29.9 0.4
30 0.4
30.1 0.3
30.2 0.4
30.4 0.4
30.5 0.4
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
762.4 1
769.8 1
777.2 1
784.6 0.9
791.8 0.9
799.1 0.9
806.4 0.9
813.7 0.9
820.9 0.9
828.1 0.9
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
324.6 0.6
327.1 0.8
330.1 0.9
333.1 0.9
336 0.9
338.9 0.9
341.9 0.9
344.7 0.8
347.9 0.9
351 0.9
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
68
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
5
5.2
5.2
5.1
5
5
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
4877 3676 1201
4728 3535 1192
4825 3619 1207
4806 3573 1233
4861 3611 1250
4595 3308 1287
4749 3427 1322
4930 3560 1370
4894 3474 1420
4926 3477 1448
L akeland – W inter H a v en
Annual Outlook for Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
June 2017
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
63.3 4.7 28 35.3
66.4 4.8 29.4 37
69.7 5 30.8 38.9
73.1 4.9 32.4 40.7
76.6 4.8 34 42.6
80.3 4.8 35.7 44.6
84.3 5 37.6 46.7
88.7 5.1 39.7 49
93.2 5.1 41.9 51.3
97.8 5 44.1 53.7
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
37.8 2.6
38.9 2.8
40 2.9
41.1 2.8
42.3 2.7
43.4 2.8
44.7 2.9
46.1 3.1
47.4 3
48.8 2.9
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
75.8 45.3
78.8 46.2
82.1 47.1
85.4 48.1
88.8 49
92.4 50
96.3 51
100.5 52.2
104.8 53.4
109.3 54.6
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
106.1 4.4
110.7 4.4
115.6 4.4
120.6 4.3
125.6 4.2
131 4.2
136.6 4.3
142.5 4.3
148.6 4.3
155.1 4.4
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
262.6 0.5
263.9 0.5
265.4 0.6
267.2 0.7
269.1 0.7
271.3 0.8
274.1 1.1
277.3 1.1
280.4 1.1
283.3 1
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
16.9 -0.5
16.8 -0.5
16.7 -0.5
16.6 -0.5
16.6 -0.5
16.5 -0.7
16.4 -0.6
16.2 -0.7
16.1 -0.8
15.9 -1.1
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
245.7 0.5
247.1 0.6
248.7 0.6
250.6 0.8
252.5 0.8
254.8 0.9
257.8 1.2
261 1.3
264.3 1.3
267.4 1.2
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
18.4 1.1
18.5 0.8
18.7 1
18.9 0.8
19.1 1.2
19.3 1.1
19.5 1
19.8 1.7
20.1 1.7
20.4 1.3
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
56.5 -0.2
56.4 -0.2
56.3 -0.2
56.2 -0.2
56.2 -0.1
56.2 0
56.4 0.4
56.6 0.4
56.8 0.3
57.1 0.4
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
10.8 31.3 17
10.7 31.5 16.9
10.7 31.7 16.8
10.6 32 16.7
10.7 32.3 16.5
10.7 32.5 16.4
10.9 32.9 16.4
11 33.2 16.3
11.2 33.4 16.3
11.3 33.7 16.2
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
1.9 0.9
2 0.8
2 0.6
2 0.5
2 1
2 1.5
2.1 1.4
2.1 1.2
2.1 0.7
2.1 0.6
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
14.4 0.2
14.5 0.3
14.5 0.2
14.5 0.3
14.6 0.4
14.7 0.5
14.8 0.6
14.9 0.7
15 0.7
15.1 0.7
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
48.2 1.3
48.8 1.2
49.5 1.4
50.3 1.7
51.3 2
52.4 2.1
53.7 2.5
55.2 2.8
56.8 2.9
58.4 2.7
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
41.9 0.6
42.3 0.8
42.6 0.8
43.1 1
43.5 1.1
44 1.2
44.6 1.2
45.1 1.2
45.4 0.7
45.7 0.5
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
26.2 0.5
26.3 0.4
26.5 0.6
26.6 0.4
26.7 0.5
26.8 0.4
27 0.7
27.1 0.4
27.3 0.7
27.4 0.5
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
5.7 -0.3
5.7 -0.2
5.7 -0.1
5.7 -0.2
5.7 -0.1
5.7 -0.1
5.7 -0.1
5.6 -0.1
5.6 -0.1
5.6 -0.1
1.8 6.1
1.9 5.9
2 5.7
2.3 13.1
2.3 -1.5
2.4 6.3
2.5 5.2
2.7 6.2
2.9 6
3 5.9
30.6 0.4
30.7 0.4
30.9 0.5
31 0.5
31.2 0.5
31.4 0.5
31.6 0.7
31.9 0.8
32.2 1.2
32.6 1.2
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
835.2 0.9
842.1 0.8
849.1 0.8
855.9 0.8
862.6 0.8
869.2 0.8
875.7 0.7
882.2 0.7
888.8 0.8
894.7 0.7
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
354 0.8
356.9 0.8
359.9 0.8
363.2 0.9
366.3 0.9
369.3 0.8
372.3 0.8
375 0.7
377.9 0.8
381.1 0.8
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.2
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.2
4846 3382 1464
4773 3279 1494
4838 3303 1535
4783 3202 1581
4761 3164 1598
4770 3143 1627
4864 3201 1663
4991 3293 1698
4987 3239 1749
4989 3187 1802
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
69
L akeland – W inter H a v en
Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
June 2017
2017Q2
2017Q3
2017Q4
2018Q1
2018Q2
2018Q3
2018Q4
2019Q1
2019Q2
2019Q3
2019Q4
2020Q1
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
24 5.3 10.3 13.7
24.3 4.9 10.4 13.8
24.6 5.1 10.6 14
25 5.5 10.7 14.2
25.3 5.6 10.9 14.4
25.6 5.7 11.1 14.6
26 5.7 11.2 14.8
26.4 5.7 11.4 15
26.8 5.8 11.5 15.2
27.1 5.8 11.7 15.4
27.5 5.5 11.8 15.6
27.8 5.4 12 15.8
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
21.5 3.6
21.8 3.2
22 3.6
22.2 4.1
22.4 4.1
22.6 4
22.9 4
23.1 3.8
23.3 3.8
23.5 3.7
23.6 3.4
23.8 3.2
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
35.1 31.6
35.4 31.7
35.7 31.9
36.1 32.2
36.5 32.3
36.9 32.5
37.3 32.8
37.7 33
38.2 33.2
38.6 33.4
39 33.5
39.4 33.7
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
46.4 3.7
46.7 2.6
47 2.5
47.5 3.3
48 3.5
48.5 4
49.1 4.4
49.6 4.3
50 4.3
50.5 4.1
51 4
51.5 4
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
220.7 3.4
222.2 2.9
223.6 2.6
224.8 2.4
225.9 2.4
226.8 2.1
227.5 1.7
228.4 1.6
229.2 1.5
230 1.4
230.6 1.4
231.2 1.2
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
17 -0.6
17 -0.6
17 -0.3
17.1 0.7
17.2 1
17.2 1
17.3 1.2
17.3 1.2
17.4 1.1
17.5 1.4
17.5 1.6
17.6 1.5
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
203.7 3.8
205.1 3.2
206.6 2.9
207.7 2.6
208.7 2.5
209.6 2.2
210.2 1.8
211.1 1.6
211.9 1.5
212.5 1.4
213.1 1.4
213.6 1.2
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
13.2 3.1
13.3 4.7
13.6 6.2
13.8 5.6
14 6.2
14.2 6.6
14.4 5.7
14.5 5.5
14.6 4.6
14.7 3.6
14.8 2.9
14.9 2.1
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
54.6 4.3
54.8 2.9
55 2.7
55.1 0.9
55.1 0.9
55.2 0.6
55.2 0.3
55.3 0.4
55.3 0.3
55.3 0.2
55.3 0.2
55.4 0.2
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
10.4 28.6 15.8
10.5 28.8 15.9
10.6 28.9 16.1
10.7 29.2 16.2
10.7 29.2 16.2
10.7 29.2 16.3
10.7 29.3 16.3
10.8 29.4 16.3
10.8 29.4 16.3
10.8 29.5 16.4
10.8 29.4 16.4
10.9 29.5 16.4
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
1.7 2.1
1.7 -2.5
1.7 -2.9
1.7 0.8
1.7 1.8
1.7 1
1.7 0.3
1.7 -0.9
1.7 -0.7
1.7 0.5
1.7 1.6
1.7 1.4
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
12.8 1.3
12.9 1.9
13 1.4
13 2.7
13.1 2.3
13.1 1.9
13.1 1.4
13.2 1.3
13.2 1
13.2 0.8
13.2 0.7
13.3 0.5
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
29.6 4.2
30.1 2.9
30.5 3
31 5.9
31.5 6.4
31.8 5.9
32.1 5.3
32.6 5
32.9 4.5
33.2 4.2
33.4 4
33.4 2.6
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
32.8 3.8
33 4.2
33.1 2.1
33.2 1.8
33.3 1.5
33.4 1.3
33.5 1.2
33.6 1.2
33.7 1.1
33.8 1.2
33.9 1.4
34.1 1.6
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
24.1 4.5
24.4 4.3
24.7 4.5
24.8 4.1
24.9 3.1
25 2.2
25 1.4
25 0.9
25.1 0.8
25.1 0.7
25.2 0.7
25.3 0.8
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
6 2.3
6 1.9
6.1 1.3
6.1 1.8
6.1 1.6
6.1 1.1
6.1 0.6
6.1 0.2
6.1 -0.1
6.1 -0.3
6.1 -0.6
6.1 -0.6
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
1.1 2.1
1.1 1.9
1.1 -0.1
1.1 -3
1.1 -3.9
1.1 -4.8
1.1 -4.5
1 -6.3
1 -3.4
1 -0.7
1.1 1.5
1.1 10
27.8 3.7
27.8 2.5
27.9 2.4
28 0.9
28 0.9
28 0.7
28.1 0.6
28.1 0.6
28.2 0.8
28.3 1
28.4 1.2
28.5 1.1
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
682.3 2.4
685.6 2.3
688.5 2.1
691.3 1.9
693.4 1.6
695.5 1.4
697.5 1.3
699.5 1.2
701.3 1.1
703.1 1.1
704.9 1
706.6 1
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
295.5 4.4
296.3 3.6
297 2.8
297.8 1.6
298.7 1.1
299.6 1.1
300.6 1.2
301.5 1.3
302.5 1.3
303.6 1.3
304.7 1.4
305.9 1.5
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
70
4.7
4.5
4.4
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.1
4
4
4
4.1
4.1
4117 3808 309
4304 3877 426
4420 3917 503
4620 4028 592
4784 4091 693
4870 4135 735
4919 4094 826
4964 4042 922
5014 4032 982
5036 4031 1005
5042 4005 1037
5081 3998 1082
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
M iami – F ort L auderdale – W est P alm B each
PROFILES
OUTLOOK SUMMARIES
The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–West Palm Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, Miami is home to the Port of Miami: the largest cruise ship port in the world and one of nation’s busiest cargo ports. Miami is also home to many sports teams including the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins and the Florida Panthers, as well as many institutions of higher education including the University of Miami and Florida International University.
The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–West Palm Beach Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) area is expected to show mixed levels of growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow an average of 5.4 percent annually. The average real per capita income level of $50,000 is the second highest in the areas studied. Average annual wage growth will be 3.6 percent, the lowest of the MSAs; however, the average annual wage level is expected to be $60,700, the highest of the studied areas. Miami is expected to average a population growth of 1.1 percent each year. The area has the highest Gross Metro Product of the MSAs studied at an average level of 309,893.45 million dollars. Employment is expected to grow at an average rate of 2.1 percent each year, while unemployment is expected to be at an average rate of 3.8 percent. Miami’s fastest growing sectors are expected to be the Construction and Mining sector and the Professional and Business Services sector at an average rate of 5.9 and 4.2 percent annually, respectively. The Federal Government sector will experience a decline, with average annual growth rate of -0.2 percent.
QUICK FACTS:
• Metro area population estimate of 5,828,191 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).
• Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,617,176 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Broward County population estimate of 1,838,844 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).
• Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,372,171 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 3,150,611 in May 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).
• An unemployment rate of 4.2% as of May 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 132,803 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • • • • • • • • • • •
Miami-Dade County Public School – 48,571 Miami-Dade County – 29,000 Federal Government – 19,500 Florida State Government – 17,100 University of Miami – 16,000 Baptist Health South Florida – 13,376 Jackson Health System – 12,571 Publix Super Markets – 10,800 American Airlines – 9,000 Florida International University – 8,000 Miami-Dade College – 6,200
Source: The Beacon Council
METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Palm Beach County companies ‘game changers’ in orthopedics and cancer, economic development agency says • Paley Institute in West Palm Beach and Sensus Healthcare in Boca Raton are touted as “game changers” in the healthcare industry and have been credited with bringing medical tourism to Palm Beach County.
• The Paley Institute performs 1,500 surgeries per year and serves patients coming from all 50 states and 90 different countries. • Patients that come to the Paley Institute have booked 5,000 nights in Palm Beach County hotels, as well as brought business to the county’s restaurants and pharmacies.
Source: Sun Sentinel, April 19, 2017
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
71
M iami – F ort L auderdale – W est P alm B each
South Florida business owners have been growing revenue and hiring, survey shows • 70 percent of business owners in Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties reported higher revenues over the past sixth months.
• 57 percent of business owners reported that they hired additional full-time employees. • 98.8 percent of South Florida participants in the Entrepreneur’s Organization survey were willing to launch a business in today’s economic environment.
Source: Miami Herald, April 11, 2017
Real estate buyers from China, elsewhere in Asia increasingly eye Miami
• Chinese buyers have increased their investment in Florida real estate by one percent from 2015 to 2016 and rank in the top tier of foreign purchasers in South Florida.
• Greg Owens, from Miami International Airport, affirmed that MIA is eager to finalize a new route agreement to allow for direct flights between Miami and the Chinese mainland. • Japan has also taken interest in South Florida by making a $220 million purchase of the iconic Miami Tower, one of the largest investments deals for Miami this year.
Source: Miami Herald, May 14, 2017
72
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
Broward County poised for biggest new hotel boom in years • Around a dozen hotels are projected to open in Broward County and will boost room inventory to over 35,000. • Early numbers released by the bureau show Broward had 12.27 million domestic visitors in 2016, up from 4 percent in 2015.
• Currency and economic woes in source markets, like Canada and Brazil, as well as non-traditional accommodation alternatives, such as Airbnb and HomeAway, have hurt traditional hotel occupancy.
Source: Sun Sentinel, May 12, 2017
In South Florida, hardest-hit markets now enjoy the biggest gains in home values • M argate, Oakland Park, and Lake Worth are three of seven cities in Broward and Palm Beach Counties where median home values have doubled since 2012.
• In Oakland Park, the median value in April was $189,600, 107 percent higher than in April 2012. • Due to the lack of available land in South Florida, the cost of dirt has soared, driving the values of existing homes higher as well as pricing teachers, police officers, and other middle-class workers out of the market.
Source: Sun Sentinel, June 4, 2017
M iami – F ort L auderdale – W est P alm B each Miami - Fort Lauderdale - West Palm Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0
0.2
0.4
Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate (percent)
12.0%
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
Miami Real Gross Metro Product 700000.0
(Millions 2000 $)
600000.0
10.0%
500000.0
8.0%
400000.0
6.0% 4.0% 2.0%
0.6
300000.0 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate
200000.0
Miami Real Personal Income
Miami Payroll Employment 4000.0
(Thousands)
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Gross Metro Product
10.0%
(percent change year ago)
5.0%
3500.0
0.0%
3000.0
-5.0%
2500.0 2000.0
-10.0%
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Miami Payroll Employment
-15.0%
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Personal Income
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
73
M iami – F ort L auderdale – W est P alm B each
Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
June 2017
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
224.9 -8.1 106.1 118.8
240.7 7 107 133.7
254.9 5.9 110.9 144
264.6 3.8 115.7 148.9
264.4 -0.1 120.3 144.2
284.4 7.5 127.8 156.5
299.5 5.3 136.6 162.9
313 4.5 145 168
327.9 4.8 153 174.9
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
225.6 -7.3
239.4 6.2
247 3.1
252 2
248.5 -1.4
263 5.8
276.2 5
285.5 3.4
294.4 3.1
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
40.8 40.9
43 42.7
44.7 43.3
45.7 43.5
45.1 42.4
47.9 44.3
49.8 46
51.5 47
53.5 48
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
47.7 0.4
48.4 1.6
49.3 1.8
50.3 2
50.9 1.2
52.3 2.8
54.1 3.4
55.7 3
57.3 2.9
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
2212 -6.3
2194.8 -0.8
2234.1 1.8
2286.8 2.4
2349 2.7
2428.4 3.4
2510.7 3.4
2587.7 3.1
2655 2.6
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
80.5 -13.8
76 -5.6
76.3 0.5
77 0.9
77.8 1
81.4 4.6
85.2 4.7
87.9 3.1
88.7 0.9
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
2131.5 -5.9
2118.8 -0.6
2157.7 1.8
2209.8 2.4
2271.2 2.8
2347.1 3.3
2425.4 3.3
2499.9 3.1
2566.4 2.7
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
102.9 -24
89 -13.5
85.7 -3.8
87.1 1.7
93.4 7.3
102.5 9.7
113.1 10.3
122.9 8.7
129.7 5.5
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
505.8 -6.6
505 -0.2
520.4 3
537.1 3.2
550.4 2.5
567.3 3.1
584.7 3.1
593.1 1.4
601.8 1.5
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
135.5 281.2 89.1
132.7 283.9 88.4
134.5 294.9 91
139.1 303.7 94.2
140.7 313 96.7
142.9 324.8 99.6
145 335.6 104.2
146 337.8 109.4
147.8 344.4 112.5
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
44.9 -9.6
43.6 -3
44.1 1.2
45.2 2.5
46.4 2.7
47.8 2.9
48.1 0.8
49.3 2.4
48.8 -1
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
156.3 -9.1
153.3 -1.9
156.4 2
161.4 3.2
164.5 1.9
168.8 2.6
174.3 3.3
176 1
176.9 0.5
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
322.2 -7.9
325.7 1.1
339.3 4.2
353 4
371.1 5.1
389.9 5.1
406.2 4.2
424.6 4.5
441.2 3.9
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
330.6 1.3
335.7 1.5
341 1.6
341.8 0.2
346.5 1.4
355.9 2.7
367.7 3.3
381.1 3.6
395 3.7
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
248.2 -3.7
252.2 1.6
262 3.9
275.6 5.2
286.5 3.9
297.4 3.8
308.7 3.8
321.8 4.2
333.4 3.6
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
102 -6.6
101.7 -0.3
103.9 2.2
108.5 4.5
111.8 3
117.2 4.8
121.3 3.5
125.1 3.2
129.4 3.4
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
34.1 0.7
36.7 7.6
34.1 -6.9
33.8 -1
33.5 -0.9
32.7 -2.3
33.2 1.5
33.6 1.2
33.4 -0.5
284.5 -2.3
276 -3
270.9 -1.8
266.3 -1.7
267.1 0.3
267.6 0.2
268.1 0.2
272.4 1.6
276.6 1.6
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
5516.7 1
5601.4 1.5
5705.8 1.9
5788.9 1.5
5865.8 1.3
5939 1.2
6009.4 1.2
6073.8 1.1
6132.9 1
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
2786.9 -2
2807.8 0.8
2858.9 1.8
2907.3 1.7
2935.9 1
2987.1 1.7
2994.7 0.3
3056 2
3127.9 2.4
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
74
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
10
10.8
9.6
8.2
7.2
6.3
5.4
5
4.4
3476 2222 1254
5054 3278 1776
7307 4153 3153
11423 5303 6120
17194 6269 10925
14630 5809 8821
20416 7151 13265
19269 7087 12182
25757 9347 16410
M iami – F ort L auderdale – W est P alm B each
Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
June 2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
346.3 5.6 162.6 183.7
366.7 5.9 172.4 194.3
386.3 5.4 181.7 204.7
406.6 5.2 191.7 214.9
427 5 202.3 224.7
448 4.9 213 235
469.8 4.9 223.4 246.4
491.7 4.6 234.1 257.5
513.3 4.4 245 268.3
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
306.2 4
318 3.8
327.9 3.1
337.5 2.9
346.7 2.7
355.7 2.6
364.7 2.6
373.3 2.4
381.4 2.2
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
55.9 49.4
58.5 50.7
61.1 51.8
63.6 52.8
66.2 53.7
68.8 54.6
71.5 55.5
74.1 56.3
76.7 57
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
59.4 3.7
61.8 4
64.2 3.9
66.9 4.2
69.7 4.1
72.5 4
75.3 3.9
78.1 3.7
80.9 3.6
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
2721.2 2.5
2773.2 1.9
2813.4 1.5
2849.3 1.3
2888.1 1.4
2923.4 1.2
2951 0.9
2982 1.1
3012.7 1
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
89.1 0.5
90 1
90.9 0.9
91.2 0.3
91.3 0.2
91.3 0
91.3 0
91.3 0
91.4 0.2
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
2632.1 2.6
2683.1 1.9
2722.5 1.5
2758.2 1.3
2796.8 1.4
2832.1 1.3
2859.7 1
2890.7 1.1
2921.3 1.1
141 8.7
149.5 6.1
154.6 3.4
160.1 3.6
166.1 3.7
171.4 3.2
176.3 2.8
180.5 2.3
182.8 1.3
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
605.9 0.7
609.2 0.5
611.5 0.4
613.7 0.4
615.8 0.3
616.8 0.2
616.9 0
618.9 0.3
619.8 0.2
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
150.7 348.6 115.5
152.6 351.4 116.7
154.8 352.9 117.4
156.2 353.9 117.9
157.3 354 118.3
158.1 353.7 118.3
158.7 353.3 118.2
159.1 354.5 119
159.2 355.5 119.9
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
49.2 0.8
49.4 0.4
49.8 0.9
50.1 0.6
50.6 0.9
51.2 1.2
51.7 1
52 0.6
52.4 0.6
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
181 2.4
183.6 1.4
185.1 0.8
187 1
188.8 1
190.5 0.9
192.1 0.8
193.6 0.8
195.1 0.8
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
467.1 5.9
489.2 4.7
500.2 2.3
514 2.8
532 3.5
549.9 3.4
562.5 2.3
577 2.6
594.7 3.1
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
400.8 1.5
406.6 1.4
414.7 2
420.6 1.4
425.2 1.1
430.7 1.3
436.6 1.4
443.4 1.6
450.7 1.6
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
344.7 3.4
350 1.5
355.8 1.7
361 1.5
364 0.8
364.9 0.3
365.4 0.1
365.1 -0.1
364.7 -0.1
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
131.8 1.9
132.7 0.6
133.1 0.3
133.7 0.5
133.7 0
133.4 -0.3
133 -0.3
133.3 0.2
133.2 -0.1
32.1 -3.9
31.5 -2
33.3 5.7
31.1 -6.5
31.1 -0.1
31.1 0.1
31.2 0.3
31.3 0.3
31.3 0.1
278.4 0.6
281.5 1.1
284.5 1.1
286.7 0.8
289.4 0.9
292.1 0.9
293.9 0.6
295.6 0.5
296.6 0.3
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
6199.9 1.1
6265.5 1.1
6327.9 1
6389.5 1
6450.6 1
6511.5 0.9
6572.2 0.9
6632.8 0.9
6693 0.9
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
3157.3 0.9
3199.8 1.3
3246.9 1.5
3280.4 1
3311.6 1
3341.8 0.9
3366.9 0.8
3388.4 0.6
3412.5 0.7
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
3.8
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.9
4
4.1
4.2
4.3
33626 15546 18080
37032 17909 19123
38731 18231 20500
40634 19041 21593
41692 19453 22239
42653 19888 22765
43317 20422 22895
42546 19613 22933
42026 18778 23249
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
75
M iami – F ort L auderdale – W est P alm B each
Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
June 2017
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
535.6 4.3 255.7 279.9
560.6 4.7 267.9 292.7
590.7 5.4 282.5 308.2
621.3 5.2 297.8 323.5
654.1 5.3 314.7 339.5
688.3 5.2 332.1 356.1
723.3 5.1 349.6 373.7
761 5.2 367.8 393.2
800.4 5.2 387 413.4
841.2 5.1 407.4 433.9
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
389.9 2.2
400.2 2.7
413.6 3.3
426.6 3.1
440.4 3.2
454.3 3.2
468.1 3
482.7 3.1
497.7 3.1
512.9 3
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
79.3 57.7
82.3 58.7
85.9 60.2
89.6 61.5
93.5 62.9
97.5 64.4
101.6 65.8
106 67.2
110.6 68.8
115.2 70.3
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
83.8 3.5
87.1 3.9
90.9 4.4
94.8 4.3
98.9 4.3
103.1 4.2
107.5 4.3
112.2 4.3
117 4.3
122 4.3
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
3037.2 0.8
3062.4 0.8
3094 1
3125.7 1
3165.9 1.3
3206.1 1.3
3236.8 1
3264.4 0.9
3293.6 0.9
3324.3 0.9
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
91.3 -0.1
90.4 -0.9
89.6 -0.9
88.9 -0.8
88.1 -0.9
87.2 -1.1
86.2 -1.1
85.4 -0.9
84.9 -0.6
84.5 -0.5
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
2946 0.8
2972 0.9
3004.4 1.1
3036.8 1.1
3077.8 1.4
3118.9 1.3
3150.6 1
3179 0.9
3208.7 0.9
3239.8 1
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
184.2 0.8
184.8 0.3
188.7 2.1
193.7 2.7
200.2 3.3
205.2 2.5
210.1 2.4
216.2 2.9
221.4 2.4
226.4 2.3
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
621.1 0.2
622.2 0.2
622.7 0.1
623.1 0.1
625.8 0.4
627.5 0.3
628.6 0.2
628.8 0
629.1 0.1
629.3 0
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
159 356.7 120.2
158 358.4 120
157 359.6 120.1
156.5 361.7 119.8
156.5 365.6 119.9
156.6 368.5 119.7
156.2 371.5 119.4
155.5 373.7 118.5
154.8 377.3 117.4
154 380.8 116.2
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
52.7 0.7
53.3 1.1
54.1 1.5
54.9 1.4
55.6 1.2
56.3 1.3
57.1 1.4
58 1.6
59.1 1.8
60.1 1.7
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
196.2 0.6
196.9 0.3
197.6 0.4
199 0.7
200.7 0.9
202.1 0.7
203.3 0.6
204.3 0.5
205.4 0.5
206.4 0.5
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
606.3 2
619.8 2.2
635.8 2.6
647.2 1.8
664.2 2.6
682.1 2.7
693.1 1.6
702 1.3
712.4 1.5
724.9 1.8
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
458.3 1.7
464.8 1.4
470.8 1.3
476.9 1.3
483.7 1.4
491.3 1.6
497.4 1.2
502.6 1
507.1 0.9
511.9 0.9
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
365.5 0.2
367.4 0.5
369.4 0.6
371.5 0.6
375.6 1.1
379 0.9
382.8 1
385.6 0.7
389.7 1.1
393.2 0.9
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
132.7 -0.4
132.3 -0.3
132.4 0.1
133 0.5
133.6 0.5
134.3 0.5
135.1 0.6
135.7 0.5
136.3 0.4
136.9 0.5
31.3 0
31.9 1.7
32.7 2.5
35.5 8.8
34.8 -2.1
35.7 2.5
36.5 2.3
37.3 2.3
38.2 2.4
39.1 2.3
297.6 0.4
298.5 0.3
300.2 0.5
302 0.6
303.7 0.6
305.3 0.5
306.7 0.5
308.4 0.6
310 0.5
311.6 0.5
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
6753.4 0.9
6813.6 0.9
6874.2 0.9
6935.6 0.9
6997 0.9
7057.9 0.9
7118.5 0.9
7179 0.8
7239.2 0.8
7299.2 0.8
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
3437.4 0.7
3469.1 0.9
3504.8 1
3541.3 1
3576.5 1
3611.9 1
3648.2 1
3683.9 1
3722.7 1.1
3761.5 1
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
76
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
4.5
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.5
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
41544 18182 23362
41129 17786 23343
42063 18425 23639
42699 18461 24238
43511 18881 24630
42718 17684 25033
43933 18503 25430
45346 19426 25920
45704 19349 26354
45815 19618 26197
M iami – F ort L auderdale – W est P alm B each
Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
June 2017
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
883.3 5 428.3 455
928.3 5.1 450.3 478
976.7 5.2 473.7 503
1027.9 5.2 498.9 529
1081.9 5.3 526.4 555.5
1137.8 5.2 555.3 582.5
1196.6 5.2 586.1 610.5
1259.8 5.3 619 640.8
1326.8 5.3 654.2 672.6
1396.4 5.2 691.2 705.3
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
527.9 2.9
543.8 3
560.8 3.1
578.6 3.2
596.9 3.2
615.4 3.1
634.3 3.1
654.6 3.2
675.7 3.2
697 3.2
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
120 71.7
125.1 73.3
130.6 75
136.4 76.8
142.4 78.6
148.6 80.3
155 82.2
161.9 84.1
169.2 86.2
176.7 88.2
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
127.3 4.3
132.8 4.3
138.5 4.3
144.4 4.3
150.8 4.4
157.4 4.4
164.2 4.3
171.3 4.3
178.7 4.3
186.5 4.4
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
3350.3 0.8
3376.5 0.8
3406.6 0.9
3440.2 1
3476.2 1
3512.7 1
3554 1.2
3599.1 1.3
3645.7 1.3
3690.4 1.2
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
83.9 -0.7
83.4 -0.7
82.8 -0.7
82.3 -0.7
81.7 -0.6
81.1 -0.8
80.5 -0.8
79.8 -0.8
78.9 -1.1
77.7 -1.5
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
3266.4 0.8
3293.1 0.8
3323.8 0.9
3358 1
3394.5 1.1
3431.6 1.1
3473.5 1.2
3519.3 1.3
3566.7 1.3
3612.6 1.3
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
231 2.1
235.1 1.8
240.2 2.2
244.8 1.9
249.9 2.1
254.8 2
260.6 2.3
268.7 3.1
276.4 2.9
283.3 2.5
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
629 -0.1
628.7 0
628.7 0
628.6 0
629.4 0.1
629.9 0.1
631.3 0.2
633 0.3
634.5 0.2
636.5 0.3
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
153 384.2 114.6
152.2 387.2 113.2
151.4 390.7 111.9
151.3 393.7 110.7
151.7 397.5 109.4
152.8 399.6 108.2
154 402.6 107.1
155.7 405 106
157.5 407.6 105
159.4 409.8 104.1
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
60.9 1.4
61.7 1.2
62.3 1.1
63 1.1
63.9 1.4
65 1.6
65.9 1.5
66.9 1.4
67.6 1.1
68.3 1
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
207.2 0.4
208.2 0.5
209 0.4
210.1 0.5
211.4 0.6
212.7 0.6
213.8 0.5
215 0.6
216.4 0.6
217.9 0.7
735 1.4
744.7 1.3
756.4 1.6
769.1 1.7
784.4 2
800.4 2
819.3 2.4
841.4 2.7
865 2.8
887.9 2.6
515.8 0.8
521.1 1
526 1
532.7 1.3
539.8 1.3
546.9 1.3
553.5 1.2
559.3 1.1
564.9 1
570.6 1
397 1
400.3 0.8
404.7 1.1
408.4 0.9
412.7 1
415.9 0.8
420.1 1
422.7 0.6
425.9 0.8
428.5 0.6
137.2 0.2
137.6 0.3
138.1 0.4
138.5 0.3
139 0.4
139.5 0.3
139.7 0.2
140.1 0.3
140.6 0.3
141.1 0.4
40 2.3
40.9 2.2
41.7 2
44.1 5.7
43.4 -1.5
44.4 2.3
45.2 1.7
46.2 2.2
47.1 2.1
48.1 2
313.2 0.5
314.9 0.5
316.6 0.6
318.5 0.6
320.4 0.6
322.2 0.5
324.1 0.6
326.2 0.6
328.3 0.6
330.5 0.7
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
7359.1 0.8
7418.7 0.8
7478.1 0.8
7537.9 0.8
7598.2 0.8
7658.4 0.8
7719.1 0.8
7780.3 0.8
7842.2 0.8
7904.4 0.8
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
3799.2 1
3835.7 1
3871.9 0.9
3912.4 1
3951.8 1
3991.9 1
4030.9 1
4069 0.9
4110.1 1
4153.8 1.1
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.7
45224 19425 25800
44836 19187 25649
45214 19502 25712
45120 19277 25843
44852 19385 25467
44790 19508 25282
45287 20084 25203
46073 20892 25180
46412 21058 25354
46725 21195 25530
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
77
M iami – F ort L auderdale – W est P alm B each
Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
June 2017
2017Q2
2017Q3
2017Q4
2018Q1
2018Q2
2018Q3
2018Q4
2019Q1
2019Q2
2019Q3
2019Q4
2020Q1
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
325.6 4.7 151.8 173.8
330 4.5 154 176
334.4 4.9 156.2 178.2
339.3 5.5 158.9 180.4
343.7 5.6 161.3 182.4
348.5 5.6 163.9 184.6
353.9 5.8 166.3 187.5
359.2 5.9 168.9 190.3
364.2 6 171.2 193
369.3 6 173.6 195.7
373.9 5.7 175.8 198.1
378.8 5.5 178.1 200.8
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
292.8 3
295.7 2.8
298.7 3.4
302.1 4.1
304.6 4
307.4 4
310.8 4.1
313.9 3.9
316.7 4
319.5 3.9
321.7 3.5
324.2 3.3
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
53.2 47.8
53.7 48.2
54.3 48.5
54.9 48.9
55.5 49.2
56.1 49.5
56.8 49.9
57.6 50.3
58.2 50.6
58.9 50.9
59.4 51.2
60.1 51.4
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
57.1 3.1
57.5 2.2
57.9 2.2
58.5 3.1
59.1 3.5
59.7 4
60.4 4.3
61 4.2
61.5 4.1
62.1 4
62.7 3.8
63.3 3.9
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
2644.7 2.6
2665.4 2.5
2683.6 2.7
2701.1 2.8
2715.8 2.7
2728.5 2.4
2739.6 2.1
2755.5 2
2767.7 1.9
2780 1.9
2789.4 1.8
2797.8 1.5
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
88.6 1.2
88.7 0.9
88.7 0.1
88.8 0.2
89.2 0.6
89.2 0.6
89.3 0.8
89.6 0.9
89.9 0.8
90.2 1.1
90.4 1.2
90.7 1.2
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
2556.1 2.7
2576.6 2.6
2594.9 2.8
2612.3 2.9
2626.6 2.8
2639.2 2.4
2650.2 2.1
2665.9 2.1
2677.8 1.9
2689.8 1.9
2699 1.8
2707.1 1.5
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
127.9 4.6
130.6 5.2
134.4 7.4
137.1 8.8
139.6 9.2
142.4 9
144.8 7.7
147 7.3
148.8 6.6
150.5 5.7
151.7 4.8
152.9 4
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
600.8 1.5
602.7 1.2
604.3 1.5
604.4 0.8
605.3 0.7
606.5 0.6
607.2 0.5
608.4 0.7
608.9 0.6
609.6 0.5
609.8 0.4
611.2 0.5
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
147.3 343.6 112
148.3 345.4 112.9
149.5 346.2 114.1
150 347.9 114.8
150.5 348.2 115.4
151 348.9 115.7
151.4 349.3 116
152 350.8 116.3
152.3 351.1 116.5
152.9 352 116.8
153.3 351.8 117.1
154.1 352.6 117.2
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
48.9 -1
48.7 -1.5
48.6 -1.6
49.3 0.4
49.6 1.5
49.1 0.9
48.8 0.5
49 -0.6
49.4 -0.4
49.5 0.9
49.7 1.9
49.8 1.6
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
176.4 0.1
177.5 0.3
178.8 2.1
180 2.9
180.7 2.5
181.4 2.2
182.1 1.8
182.8 1.6
183.4 1.5
183.8 1.3
184.3 1.2
184.6 1
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
437.6 3.9
444.3 3.6
450 4.8
458 5.8
465.1 6.3
470.5 5.9
474.7 5.5
482.1 5.3
487.6 4.8
492 4.6
495 4.3
495.7 2.8
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
394.4 4
396.4 3.7
397.6 2.9
398.9 1.9
400.4 1.5
401.5 1.3
402.5 1.2
404.2 1.3
405.7 1.3
407.4 1.5
409.3 1.7
411.6 1.8
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
331.3 3.4
336.3 4.3
340 3.9
342.8 5.1
343.8 3.8
345.5 2.7
346.9 2
348.1 1.5
348.9 1.5
350.8 1.5
352.1 1.5
353.5 1.6
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
128.9 3.6
129.8 3.5
130.6 2.6
131.3 2.4
131.7 2.1
132 1.7
132.3 1.3
132.6 1
132.7 0.7
132.7 0.5
132.7 0.3
132.9 0.2
33.5 0.4
33.5 -0.6
33.1 -2.7
32.7 -2.9
32.2 -3.9
31.9 -4.7
31.7 -4.3
31.6 -3.2
31.5 -2.2
31.4 -1.4
31.4 -1
31.2 -1.2
276.4 2
277 1.2
277.5 0.9
277.8 0.8
278.3 0.7
278.5 0.6
279.1 0.6
279.9 0.8
281 1
282 1.2
283 1.4
283.7 1.3
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
6124.1 1
6139.6 0.9
6157 1
6174.4 1
6191.6 1.1
6208.5 1.1
6225.4 1.1
6241.6 1.1
6257.6 1.1
6273.5 1
6289.2 1
6304.8 1
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
3129.2 2.9
3133.2 2.3
3136 1.5
3143.7 1
3151.8 0.7
3161.5 0.9
3172 1.1
3182.7 1.2
3193.1 1.3
3205.5 1.4
3217.9 1.4
3230.9 1.5
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
78
4.3
4.2
4
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.6
24437 8375 16062
27221 10043 17178
29483 11778 17705
31728 13558 18170
33720 15103 18617
33944 16374 17569
35112 17147 17965
35922 17667 18255
37163 17912 19250
37323 18060 19262
37720 17996 19724
37959 18024 19935
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
N aples – I mmokalee – M arco I sland
PROFILES
OUTLOOK SUMMARIES
The Naples–Immokalee–Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier County only. Located on the southwest coast of Florida it is notable for numerous recreation and leisure activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the “Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida”.
• The Ritz-Carlton, Naples – 1,110
The Naples–Immokalee–Marco Island Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show high levels of growth in the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. The metro area shows the second highest personal income growth among the studied MSAs at an average of 6.6 percent. The real per capita income level is expected to average $77,300, the highest of the MSAs. Average annual wage will be at a level of $57,700. The average annual wage is expected to grow at the second highest rate of the MSAs studied at 4.4 percent. Population growth will average 2.3 percent, the highest in the studied areas, and the Gross Metro Product will average 18,149.78 million dollars. Employment growth is expected to average 2.9 percent each year, the second highest of the MSAs. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 4.0 percent. The Construction and Mining sector represents Naples’ fastest growing sector, growing at an average rate of 6.5 percent each year. The Professional and Business Services sector will follow with an average growth rate of 4.5 percent. None of the sectors are expected to decline.
• Arthrex, Inc – 1,056
METRO NEWS SUMMARIES
• Hometown Inspection Svc. – 900
Sales momentum at Seaglass continues as construction progresses
QUICK FACTS:
• Population estimate of 339,642 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 169,698 in May 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).
• An unemployment rate of 3.7% as of May 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 6,319 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:
• Naples Community Hospital – 4,000 • Gargiulo, Inc. – 1,110
• Collier County Sheriff’s Office – 1,029 • Publix – 800
• Marriott – 700
• Naples Grande Beach Resort – 700 • Downing Frye Realty – 550
Source: Collier Business & Economic Development
• Sales are booming at the 26-floor, 120-unit Seaglass high-rise tower. The building is 60% sold, with more than $125 million contracts having been processed. Seaglass is being built by Ronto Group.
• Seaglass residents have access to the Bonita Bay Club, which provides multiple amenities inlcuding a 60,000-square-foot Lifestyle Center, five gold courses, tennis facilities, full-service marina, and a private beach park.
• With a good location and great amenities, luxury homebuyers will continue to be attracted to Seaglass high-rise tower.
Source: Naples Daily News, June 3, 2017
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
79
N aples – I mmokalee – M arco I sland
Wawa announces Naples ‘hiring push’
• Wawa, a chain of convenience stores with gas stations, is slated to open its first store in Naples in August of 2017.
• Wawa has plans to open 25 to 30 new stores each year across Florida for several coming years, and each store will have 50 new employees. • Wawa offers competitive pay, and full-time and part-time employees are eligible for health benefits and have opportunity to earn Wawa company stock.
Source: Naples Daily News, May 31, 2017
Lee Health celebrates readiness to build medical village in Estero
• Lee Health conducted a “ground-raising” ceremony for a $140 million “health and wellness” village. The site is 30 acres, and it will have a variety of medical clinics, such as an outpatient surgery center and a wellness center. • Lee Health originally wanted to include a hospital; however, a legal battle has prevented that for now.
• Jim Nathan, who is the outgoing president and CEO of Lee Health, has said, “This is a journey of not just years but decades. We saw some time ago a term I began to use that south Lee County, from a health perspective, was emerging as an outpost, not an in-post.”
Source: Naples Daily News, May 18, 2017
Collier County Reconsidering PACE Loans for Homeowners
• Collier County Commissioners are relooking at a state program for financing storm-resistant or energy-efficient improvements. • Jay Neal, who is the President of Florida Association for Insurance Reform (FAIR), argued that the bill can reduce insurance premiums and utility bills while creating jobs: “All these dollars we spend on insurance go offshore. By diverting those funds back into the
80
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
Florida economy we create a heck of a lot of jobs. For every $10 million invested we create 6,000 jobs over 20 years.”
• The program extends credit more freely, but the interest rates are also higher. Furthermore, the payments are added onto a homeowners’ property tax bill and can lead to liens and foreclosure.
Source: Naples Herald, April 17, 2017
Naples City Council Rejects Density Regulations for Workforce Housing
• Naples City Council moved away from a proposal to relax density regulations, as to allow construction of workforce housing in the city’s development district. • Workforce housing is designed to be affordable for individuals and families who would usually be unable to afford to live in the area in which they work. This legislation would have affected the area between U.S. 41 and Goodlette-Frank Road.
• Those opposing the bill argue that relaxing the density regulation would cause Naples to lose its “small town feel” and that it would reduce quality of life. However, those for the bill argued that it harms essential service personnel.
Source: Naples Herald, April 07, 2017
N aples – I mmokalee – M arco I sland Naples - Immokalee - Marco Island MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0
0.5
Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate (percent)
14.0% 12.0%
1.5
2
2.5
Naples Real Gross Metro Product 50000.0
(Millions 2000 $)
40000.0
10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%
1
30000.0 20000.0 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate
10000.0
Naples Real Personal Income
Naples Payroll Employment 300.0
(Thousands)
15.0%
(percent change year ago)
10.0%
250.0
5.0%
200.0
0.0% -5.0%
150.0
-10.0%
100.0 50.0
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Gross Metro Product
-15.0% 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Naples Payroll Employment
-20.0%
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Personal Income
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
81
N aples – I mmokalee – M arco I sland
Annual Outlook for Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL
June 2017
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
18.8 -14.7 5 13.8
20.5 9 5.1 15.4
22 7.2 5.3 16.7
24.1 9.4 5.6 18.5
24.1 0 6 18.1
26.9 11.6 6.4 20.5
28 4.2 6.8 21.2
29.3 4.6 7.4 22
31.1 5.9 7.9 23.1
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
18.9 -14
20.4 8.1
21.3 4.4
23 7.6
22.6 -1.4
24.9 9.9
25.9 3.9
26.8 3.5
27.9 4.2
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
59.1 59.2
63.5 63.2
67.1 65
72.3 68.9
70.8 66.5
77.1 71.3
78.4 72.3
80.1 73.1
82.9 74.4
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
45.1 -1.3
45.8 1.6
45.9 0.3
46.6 1.5
48.3 3.5
48.9 1.3
49.8 1.9
51.5 3.2
54.2 5.4
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
111.3 -8.4
111.2 -0.1
115 3.4
118.7 3.2
123.3 3.9
129.9 5.4
136.1 4.8
142.4 4.7
145.2 1.9
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
2.6 -11.2
2.4 -6.7
2.5 1.4
2.7 8
3 13.7
3.3 8
3.4 4.3
3.8 9.3
4.1 8.6
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
108.6 -8.3
108.8 0.1
112.5 3.4
116 3.1
120.2 3.7
126.6 5.3
132.7 4.8
138.7 4.5
141.1 1.7
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
10.4 -27.9
9.1 -12.9
9 -0.9
9.4 4.4
10.5 11.7
12.1 15.5
13.6 12.1
15 10.5
16.1 7.7
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
21.1 -7.6
21.3 0.9
22.2 4.1
22.8 2.5
23.9 5.1
25.3 5.9
26.3 3.7
27.1 3.2
27 -0.5
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
2.8 16.9 1.5
2.8 17 1.5
2.9 17.9 1.4
3 18.4 1.4
3.4 19.1 1.4
3.7 20.1 1.5
3.7 20.8 1.7
3.9 21.3 1.9
4.1 21.2 1.9
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
1.6 -8.9
1.5 -4.2
1.5 -4.8
1.4 -2.3
1.5 4
1.5 -0.6
1.5 2.3
1.6 5
1.6 -0.4
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
6.6 -9.8
6.5 -1
6.5 -1
6.7 4.2
7 4.2
7.5 7.1
8 6.1
8 0.1
8.1 1.6
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
10.5 -4.6
11.1 5.8
12.1 9.3
13.3 9.7
13.5 1.7
14.4 6.4
15.3 5.9
16.1 5.5
16.5 2.5
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
16.6 -1.3
17.1 3
17.9 4.8
18 0.3
18.3 1.7
18.8 3
19.9 5.5
21.1 5.9
21.8 3.3
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
21 -8.2
21.3 1.6
22.6 6
23.6 4.3
24.4 3.7
25.5 4.4
26.5 3.8
27.2 2.8
27.1 -0.4
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
7.2 -3.1
7.3 0.8
7.3 -0.2
7.4 2.5
7.9 6.6
8.3 5.1
8.5 1.6
9.1 7.2
9.3 2.7
0.7 1.2
0.8 14.7
0.7 -10.6
0.6 -7.3
0.6 -7.6
0.6 0.1
0.6 2.7
0.7 12.3
0.7 -0.7
12.9 -2.8
12.7 -1.6
12.7 0.4
12.7 -0.3
12.5 -1.7
12.4 -0.5
12.6 1.6
12.9 2
12.9 0.3
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
319.1 0.7
323.3 1.3
328.1 1.5
333.3 1.6
340.4 2.1
349 2.5
357.6 2.5
366.2 2.4
374.5 2.3
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
142.8 -3.4
145.3 1.8
148.9 2.4
152.7 2.6
155.5 1.8
160.2 3
163.4 2
167.7 2.6
167.1 -0.4
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
82
Unemployment Rate (%)
11.1
11.6
10.1
8.4
7.1
6
5.2
4.8
4.2
Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
833 633 200
1202 805 397
1217 928 289
1485 1283 202
2332 1732 601
3255 2391 864
3799 3058 741
3669 2928 742
4411 2654 1757
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
N aples – I mmokalee – M arco I sland
Annual Outlook for Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL
June 2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
33.2 6.8 8.6 24.6
35.5 7.1 9.2 26.3
37.8 6.6 9.8 28
40.3 6.4 10.5 29.8
42.7 6.1 11.2 31.5
45.3 6 11.9 33.4
48 6.1 12.6 35.5
50.8 5.8 13.3 37.5
53.7 5.6 14.1 39.6
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
29.3 5.1
30.8 5
32.1 4.3
33.4 4.1
34.7 3.8
35.9 3.6
37.3 3.8
38.6 3.5
39.9 3.3
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
86.5 76.4
90.5 78.4
94.3 80
98.2 81.5
101.9 82.8
105.8 84
109.9 85.4
113.9 86.5
117.8 87.5
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
56.4 4
58.8 4.3
61.2 4
63.9 4.4
66.7 4.4
69.5 4.2
72.2 3.9
75 3.8
77.9 3.9
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
150.9 3.9
155.6 3.1
159.5 2.6
163.3 2.4
167.1 2.3
170.5 2.1
173.7 1.9
177 1.9
180.3 1.8
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
4.1 1.3
4.2 1.6
4.3 1.5
4.3 0.9
4.3 0.3
4.3 0
4.3 0.2
4.3 0.2
4.3 0.4
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
146.7 4
151.4 3.1
155.3 2.6
159 2.4
162.7 2.3
166.2 2.1
169.4 1.9
172.7 2
175.9 1.9
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
17.4 8.1
18.6 6.4
19.3 3.8
20 4
20.9 4.3
21.7 3.9
22.5 3.7
23.2 3
23.6 1.6
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
27.4 1.7
27.9 1.8
28.3 1.6
28.8 1.6
29.2 1.5
29.6 1.3
30 1.2
30.4 1.5
30.8 1.4
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
4.3 21.8 2
4.4 22.3 2
4.5 22.7 2
4.7 23.1 2.1
4.8 23.3 2.1
4.9 23.6 2.1
4.9 23.8 2.2
5 24.2 2.2
5.1 24.6 2.2
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
1.6 1.9
1.6 1.5
1.7 2
1.7 1.7
1.7 1.9
1.8 2.2
1.8 2.1
1.8 1.6
1.9 1.6
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
8.5 4.5
8.7 3.3
9 2.5
9.2 2.5
9.4 2.4
9.6 2.2
9.8 2.1
10 2.1
10.3 2.2
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
17.6 6.8
18.6 5.5
19.2 3.1
19.9 3.6
20.7 4.3
21.6 4.1
22.2 3
23 3.4
23.9 4.3
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
22.4 3.1
23.1 2.9
23.8 3.3
24.5 2.6
25 2.2
25.6 2.4
26.2 2.5
26.9 2.7
27.7 2.8
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
28.3 4.4
28.9 2.2
29.5 2.2
30.1 2
30.5 1.2
30.7 0.6
30.9 0.6
31 0.4
31.1 0.4
9.6 3.3
9.8 2
10 1.6
10.2 1.8
10.3 1.2
10.4 0.9
10.5 0.9
10.6 1.4
10.8 1.2
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
0.7 -2.8
0.7 -0.7
0.8 14.8
0.7 -11.7
0.7 1
0.7 1.1
0.7 1.4
0.7 1.1
0.7 0.7
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
13.1 1.9
13.4 2.3
13.7 2.2
14 1.9
14.3 2
14.5 1.9
14.8 1.6
15 1.5
15.2 1.3
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
383.4 2.4
392.4 2.3
401.2 2.3
410 2.2
418.9 2.2
427.9 2.1
437 2.1
446.2 2.1
455.6 2.1
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
164.5 -1.6
164.1 -0.2
166.3 1.3
170.1 2.2
174.6 2.7
179.1 2.6
182.9 2.1
186.5 1.9
190.4 2.1
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
3.9
3.9
4.1
4.3
4.4
4.6
4.7
4.8
5
5200 2641 2560
5441 2531 2909
5745 2602 3143
6124 2741 3383
6338 2836 3502
6531 2927 3604
6648 3023 3624
6615 2985 3630
6602 2942 3659
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
83
N aples – I mmokalee – M arco I sland
Annual Outlook for Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL
June 2017
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
56.7 5.6 14.9 41.8
60 5.9 15.7 44.3
64.1 6.8 16.8 47.3
68.3 6.5 18 50.3
72.8 6.6 19.3 53.5
77.6 6.5 20.6 56.9
82.6 6.5 22.1 60.5
88.2 6.7 23.6 64.6
94 6.6 25.2 68.8
100.1 6.5 26.9 73.2
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
41.3 3.5
42.9 3.9
44.9 4.7
46.9 4.5
49 4.5
51.2 4.4
53.4 4.4
55.9 4.6
58.5 4.5
61 4.4
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
121.9 88.7
126.5 90.3
132.4 92.7
138.3 95
144.6 97.3
150.9 99.6
157.5 101.9
164.8 104.6
172.4 107.2
180 109.7
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
80.8 3.8
84.2 4.2
88.2 4.7
92.2 4.6
96.7 4.8
101.2 4.7
105.9 4.7
111 4.7
116.1 4.7
121.5 4.6
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
183.3 1.7
186.3 1.6
190.1 2
194 2.1
198.8 2.4
203.3 2.3
207.6 2.1
211.8 2
216.1 2.1
220.5 2
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
4.4 0.3
4.3 -0.4
4.3 -0.4
4.3 -0.3
4.3 -0.4
4.3 -0.6
4.2 -0.6
4.2 -0.4
4.2 -0.2
4.2 -0.1
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
179 1.7
182 1.7
185.8 2.1
189.7 2.1
194.5 2.5
199.1 2.4
203.3 2.1
207.5 2.1
211.9 2.1
216.3 2.1
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
23.8 0.9
23.9 0.4
24.5 2.7
25.3 3.3
26.3 3.9
27.1 3
27.9 3
28.9 3.7
29.8 3
30.6 2.7
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
31.3 1.6
31.8 1.7
32.3 1.5
32.8 1.5
33.4 1.9
34 1.7
34.6 1.7
35.1 1.5
35.7 1.7
36.3 1.7
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
5.2 25 2.3
5.2 25.4 2.3
5.2 25.7 2.3
5.3 26.2 2.4
5.4 26.8 2.4
5.5 27.4 2.4
5.5 28 2.5
5.6 28.5 2.5
5.7 29.1 2.5
5.7 29.8 2.5
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
1.9 1.7
2 2.2
2 2.6
2 2.4
2.1 2.3
2.1 2.4
2.2 2.4
2.3 2.6
2.3 2.7
2.4 2.6
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
10.5 1.9
10.6 1.5
10.8 1.5
11 2
11.2 2.2
11.5 2.1
11.7 1.9
11.9 1.8
12.1 1.9
12.4 1.9
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
24.7 3.2
25.6 3.6
26.6 4
27.4 3.1
28.5 3.9
29.6 3.9
30.5 2.8
31.2 2.5
32.1 2.7
33 3
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
28.5 2.8
29.2 2.5
29.9 2.4
30.6 2.4
31.4 2.6
32.3 2.7
33 2.4
33.7 2.1
34.4 2
35 1.9
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
31.3 0.7
31.6 0.9
31.9 1
32.2 1
32.8 1.6
33.2 1.4
33.7 1.5
34.1 1.2
34.7 1.7
35.2 1.5
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
10.9 0.9
11 1
11.1 1.3
11.3 1.8
11.5 1.8
11.7 1.9
12 1.9
12.2 1.9
12.4 1.8
12.6 1.8
0.7 0.7
0.7 4.1
0.8 5.6
0.9 12.5
0.9 1
0.9 5.4
1 5.2
1 5.2
1.1 5.2
1.2 5.1
15.4 1.4
15.6 1.3
15.8 1.5
16.1 1.6
16.3 1.6
16.6 1.5
16.8 1.5
17.1 1.6
17.4 1.6
17.6 1.5
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
465.1 2.1
474.5 2
484.2 2
493.9 2
503.6 2
513.9 2
524.3 2
534.8 2
545.5 2
556.3 2
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
194.4 2.1
198.7 2.2
203.3 2.3
208.1 2.3
212.8 2.3
217.7 2.3
222.7 2.3
227.8 2.3
233.4 2.4
239 2.4
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
84
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
5.2
5.4
5.4
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
6528 2893 3635
6455 2845 3610
6563 2923 3640
6710 2999 3710
6812 3063 3750
6715 2933 3782
6839 3029 3811
7030 3179 3851
7142 3259 3883
7151 3322 3829
N aples – I mmokalee – M arco I sland
Annual Outlook for Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL
June 2017
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
106.5 6.4 28.7 77.8
113.5 6.6 30.6 82.9
121.2 6.8 32.8 88.4
129.3 6.7 35 94.3
137.8 6.6 37.5 100.4
146.6 6.4 40 106.6
156 6.4 42.7 113.3
166.2 6.6 45.7 120.5
176.7 6.3 48.8 127.9
187.6 6.2 52.1 135.6
63.7 4.3
66.5 4.5
69.6 4.7
72.8 4.6
76 4.4
79.3 4.3
82.7 4.3
86.4 4.5
90 4.2
93.7 4
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
187.8 112.2
196.3 115
205.6 118
215.2 121.1
225 124.2
234.9 127
245.4 130.1
256.9 133.5
268.6 136.8
280.6 140
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
127.2 4.7
133.3 4.8
139.7 4.8
146.3 4.7
153.1 4.6
160.3 4.7
167.8 4.7
175.8 4.7
183.6 4.5
191.7 4.4
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
224.8 1.9
229.1 1.9
233.8 2.1
238.7 2.1
243.9 2.2
248.7 2
253.8 2.1
259.5 2.2
265.3 2.2
271 2.1
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
4.2 -0.2
4.2 -0.2
4.2 -0.2
4.2 -0.3
4.2 -0.2
4.1 -0.4
4.1 -0.3
4.1 -0.4
4.1 -0.6
4 -0.9
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
220.6 2
224.9 2
229.6 2.1
234.5 2.1
239.7 2.2
244.5 2
249.7 2.1
255.4 2.3
261.2 2.3
266.9 2.2
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
31.4 2.6
32.1 2.2
32.9 2.7
33.7 2.4
34.5 2.4
35.3 2.1
36 2.1
37.1 3.2
38.2 2.8
39.1 2.4
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
36.9 1.6
37.5 1.6
38.1 1.6
38.6 1.5
39.3 1.7
39.9 1.5
40.7 1.9
41.4 1.8
42.1 1.8
42.9 1.8
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
5.8 30.4 2.5
5.8 31 2.5
5.9 31.7 2.5
6 32.3 2.5
6.1 33.1 2.6
6.2 33.7 2.6
6.3 34.5 2.6
6.5 35.2 2.6
6.7 35.9 2.6
6.9 36.5 2.6
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
2.4 2.3
2.5 2.1
2.5 1.9
2.6 1.8
2.6 2.2
2.7 1.8
2.7 1.4
2.8 1.3
2.8 0.9
2.8 0.8
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
12.6 1.7
12.8 1.9
13 1.8
13.3 2
13.6 2.1
13.9 2
14.1 2
14.4 2
14.7 2
15 2.1
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
33.9 2.7
34.8 2.7
35.8 2.9
37 3.2
38.2 3.4
39.6 3.5
41.1 3.8
42.8 4.1
44.6 4.3
46.4 4.1
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
35.7 2
36.5 2.2
37.3 2.2
38.2 2.4
39.2 2.5
40 2.1
40.8 1.9
41.5 1.9
42.4 2.1
43.3 2.2
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
35.8 1.5
36.3 1.4
36.9 1.7
37.4 1.5
38 1.6
38.4 1
38.9 1.3
39.2 0.8
39.6 1
39.9 0.8
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
12.8 1.5
13 1.6
13.2 1.7
13.5 1.7
13.7 1.7
13.9 1.6
14.1 1.5
14.3 1.6
14.6 1.6
14.8 1.6
1.2 5
1.3 4.8
1.3 4.6
1.4 9.4
1.4 -0.1
1.5 4.8
1.6 4.1
1.7 4.7
1.7 4.5
1.8 4.4
17.9 1.6
18.2 1.6
18.5 1.6
18.8 1.7
19.1 1.7
19.4 1.7
19.8 1.8
20.1 1.8
20.5 1.7
20.8 1.6
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
567.3 2
578.4 2
589.6 1.9
601.1 1.9
612.4 1.9
624.1 1.9
635.5 1.8
646.9 1.8
658 1.7
668.7 1.6
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
244.6 2.4
250.3 2.3
256 2.3
262.1 2.4
268.2 2.3
274.2 2.3
280.3 2.2
286.2 2.1
292.5 2.2
299.2 2.3
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
5.4
5.4
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.6
5.7
5.7
5.6
5.6
7060 3321 3739
7001 3314 3687
7004 3340 3664
6990 3341 3649
6937 3374 3563
6890 3385 3505
6929 3470 3459
7012 3591 3421
7080 3669 3410
7133 3733 3400
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
85
N aples – I mmokalee – M arco I sland
Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL
June 2017
2017Q2
2017Q3
2017Q4
2018Q1
2018Q2
2018Q3
2018Q4
2019Q1
2019Q2
2019Q3
2019Q4
2020Q1
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
30.8 5.7 7.9 23
31.3 5.8 8 23.3
31.8 6.6 8.1 23.7
32.3 6.9 8.3 24
32.9 6.6 8.5 24.4
33.4 6.7 8.6 24.8
34 6.9 8.8 25.2
34.6 7 9 25.7
35.2 7.2 9.1 26.1
35.8 7.2 9.3 26.5
36.4 6.9 9.4 26.9
36.9 6.7 9.6 27.4
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
27.7 4
28.1 4.1
28.4 5
28.8 5.4
29.1 5
29.5 5
29.9 5.1
30.2 5.1
30.6 5.1
31 5.1
31.3 4.7
31.6 4.5
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
82.6 74.3
83.4 74.8
84.2 75.2
85.1 75.8
85.9 76.2
86.9 76.6
87.9 77.2
89 77.8
90 78.2
91 78.7
91.9 79.1
92.8 79.4
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
54.2 6.1
54.5 5
54.9 4.5
55.5 4
56.1 3.5
56.7 4.1
57.4 4.6
57.9 4.4
58.5 4.4
59.1 4.2
59.7 4.1
60.3 4.1
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
144.4 1.5
146 1.2
147.5 3.3
149 4.3
150.3 4.1
151.6 3.8
152.7 3.5
154 3.4
155 3.2
156.1 3
157.1 2.9
158.1 2.7
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
4.1 8.6
4.1 7
4.1 6.2
4.1 1.1
4.1 1.4
4.1 1.3
4.1 1.5
4.2 1.4
4.2 1.4
4.2 1.7
4.2 1.8
4.2 1.8
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
140.3 1.3
141.9 1.1
143.4 3.3
144.9 4.4
146.2 4.2
147.4 3.9
148.5 3.6
149.8 3.4
150.9 3.2
151.9 3.1
152.9 2.9
153.8 2.7
16 7.5
16.2 6.7
16.6 7.6
16.9 7.1
17.3 8.1
17.7 9
17.9 8.2
18.3 8
18.5 6.9
18.7 5.8
18.8 4.9
19 4
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
26.9 -1.1
27 -1.9
27.1 1
27.2 1.8
27.3 1.7
27.5 1.6
27.6 1.7
27.7 1.9
27.8 1.9
28 1.8
28 1.7
28.2 1.6
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
4.1 21.1 1.9
4.1 21.3 1.9
4.2 21.4 1.9
4.2 21.6 1.9
4.3 21.7 2
4.3 21.8 2
4.3 21.9 2
4.4 22.1 2
4.4 22.2 2
4.4 22.4 2
4.5 22.4 2
4.5 22.6 2
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
1.6 -1
1.6 -1
1.6 0.1
1.6 1.5
1.6 2.5
1.6 2
1.6 1.5
1.6 0.5
1.6 0.7
1.7 1.8
1.7 2.9
1.7 2.6
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
8.1 1.3
8.2 1.7
8.3 3.3
8.4 5.2
8.4 4.7
8.5 4.3
8.6 3.9
8.7 3.7
8.7 3.3
8.8 3.1
8.8 3
8.9 2.7
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
16.4 1.5
16.7 2.9
16.9 4.7
17.2 6.9
17.5 7.3
17.8 6.7
18 6.3
18.3 6
18.5 5.6
18.7 5.3
18.9 5
18.9 3.6
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
21.7 3.9
21.9 2.7
22 3.1
22.2 3.5
22.4 3.1
22.5 2.8
22.7 2.8
22.8 2.8
23 2.8
23.2 2.9
23.3 3
23.5 3.1
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
26.9 -1.7
27.4 -1
27.7 4.2
28 6.3
28.2 4.8
28.4 3.7
28.5 2.9
28.7 2.4
28.8 2.2
29 2.2
29.1 2.1
29.3 2.1
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
9.3 3.1
9.4 2.5
9.5 2.2
9.6 3.8
9.6 3.5
9.7 3.2
9.7 2.7
9.8 2.4
9.8 2.1
9.9 1.8
9.9 1.6
9.9 1.5
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
0.7 2.1
0.7 -3.3
0.7 -1.8
0.7 -1.8
0.7 -2.7
0.7 -3.5
0.7 -3.1
0.6 -5.8
0.7 -2.2
0.7 1.2
0.7 4
0.7 16
12.9 -0.1
12.9 -0.8
13 0.8
13.1 2
13.1 1.9
13.2 1.8
13.2 1.8
13.3 2
13.4 2.2
13.5 2.4
13.6 2.5
13.6 2.5
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
373.4 2.3
375.5 2.2
377.8 2.3
380 2.3
382.3 2.4
384.6 2.4
386.8 2.4
389 2.4
391.3 2.3
393.5 2.3
395.7 2.3
397.9 2.3
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
168 0
166.9 -0.8
165.8 -1.1
165.1 -1.6
164.6 -2
164.2 -1.6
163.9 -1.2
163.8 -0.8
163.9 -0.4
164.2 0
164.6 0.4
165.2 0.9
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
86
4
3.9
3.9
4
4
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.9
3.9
4
4.1
4258 2612 1646
4633 2623 2010
4857 2634 2223
5087 2673 2414
5252 2662 2590
5189 2645 2544
5274 2582 2692
5294 2512 2783
5468 2524 2944
5475 2542 2933
5525 2547 2978
5593 2558 3035
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
O cala
PROFILES
OUTLOOK SUMMARIES
Comprised of Marion County only, the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area and is in the center of the state. The second largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area.
The Ocala Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show moderate levels of growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 6.4 percent annually. Real per capita income level is the second lowest of the twelve metros at an average of $34,200. Relative to other metro areas, Ocala will have the lowest average annual wage level at $45,200. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 4.0 percent. The metro has an expected annual average population growth of 1.4 percent. The Gross Metro Product is expected to average 7,989.80 million dollars, which is the lowest of the studied areas. Employment growth is expected to average a rate of 2.7 percent annually, the third highest of the studied MSAs. The unemployment rate is estimated to average 4.6 percent, the highest of the researched areas. The Construction and Mining and the Professional and Business Services sectors are expected to be the fastest growing in Ocala, averaging an annual growth rate of 6.1 and 5.7 percent, respectively. This is followed by the Health and Education Services sector with 3.2 percent average annual growth. No sector will experience a decline.
QUICK FACTS:
• Population estimate of 337,362 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 135,858 in May 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).
• An unemployment rate of 4.7% as of May 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 6,393 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:
• Marion County School Board – 6,071
• Munroe Regional Medical Center – 2,648 • State of Florida (all departments) – 2,600 • Wal-Mart – 2,370
• Ocala Regional Health System – 2,020 • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,488
• Marion County Board of County Commissioners – 1,462 • AT&T – 1,000
• City of Ocala – 994 • Lockheed Martin Employees – 981
Source: Ocala/Marion County Chamber & Economic Partnership
METRO NEWS SUMMARIES New store in SW Ocala is Earth Fare’s 40th
• Earth Fare is a grocery chain that emphasizes organic and “clean” foods. The new store located in Southwest Ocala is 28,000 square feet. • The store employs approximately 100 workers, about 80 of whom are part-time.
• F rank Scorpiniti, president/CEO of Earth Fare, wanted to build the store after he found that “a number” of Ocala residents were driving up to the Gainesville store.
Source: Ocala Star Banner, April 21, 2017
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
87
O cala
New snack food company seeks economic incentives
• Mestizo Foods LLC wants to invest millions into the renovation of the old Golden Flake factory; however, the company also wants $15,000 from the city and county to help receive $120,000 from the state. Later, the company wants to receive $250,000 from the city and county over five years. • The company plans to invest $7.3 million on the renovation of the Golden Flake factory, which has been closed since an October fire.
• Furthermore, the company promises to spend at least $11.6 million on new equipment and to hire at least 50 new full-time employees with an average annual wage of $40,518.
Source: Ocala Star Banner, June 01, 2017
County approves medical marijuana ordinance
• Marion County will allow up to five dispensaries. This number was chosen based on the population of the county. The permits are on a first-come, first-served basis. • Commissioner David Moore wanted to “let the market decide” the number of dispensaries, but Commissioner Michelle Stone and Kathy Bryant wanted to limit the number of dispensaries, as it is an industry that is new to the market. • Commission Chairman Carl Zalak said the county should come back in a year to revisit the ordinance and see how things are going.
Source: Ocala Star Banner, May 16, 2017
Tourist council takes next step toward civic center
• The Tourist Development Council (TDC) is looking to hire a consultant to study the feasibility of building a convention center (special events center or civic center) in Marion County. • The study would determine location, cost, and other components. County Commission Chairman Carl Zalak said that a $25 million facility could be financed by bonds that would be paid off using tax revenue over 10 years.
88
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
• Danny Gawekwad, who owns multiple hotels in Marion County, is chairman of the TDC. He met with officials at the Lakeland Center and learned that the facility has not made money in 35 years. He said, “If this can be self-sustaining, great, but if it’s not, it will be a headache.”
Source: Ocala Star Banner, May 11, 2017
HITS plans $1 million in improvements before 2018
• Horse Shows in the Sun is a 10 week-long event that has an estimated annual $94 million economic impact locally. • Before the 2018 event, HITS plans to invest more than $1 million to construct two commercial barns that will contain 48 stalls.
• Louisa Barton, who is the director of equine engagement for the Ocala/Marion County Chamber & Economic Partnership, said that there’s always room for improvement, and that “the CEP is extremely grateful that HITS chose Marion County as its winter home.”
Source: Ocala Star Banner, April 13, 2017
O cala Ocala MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0
0.2
0.4
Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate (percent)
14.0% 12.0%
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
Ocala Real Gross Metro Product 18000.0
(Millions 2000 $)
16000.0 14000.0
10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%
0.6
12000.0 10000.0 8000.0 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate
6000.0 4000.0
Ocala Real Personal Income
Ocala Payroll Employment 180.0
(Thousands)
160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Ocala Payroll Employment
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Gross Metro Product
12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0%
(percent change year ago)
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Personal Income
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
89
O cala
Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL
June 2017
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
9.7 -2.9 3.4 6.4
10 3.2 3.3 6.7
10.5 5 3.4 7.2
10.6 0.9 3.5 7.2
10.6 -0.7 3.6 7
11.1 4.9 3.7 7.4
11.6 4.7 3.9 7.7
12.2 4.7 4.2 8
12.9 6 4.4 8.4
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
9.8 -2.1
10 2.3
10.2 2.3
10.1 -0.8
9.9 -2
10.2 3.3
10.7 4.4
11.1 3.6
11.6 4.3
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
29.4 29.5
30.3 30.1
31.7 30.7
31.8 30.3
31.4 29.5
32.6 30.2
33.7 31.1
34.7 31.7
36.3 32.6
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
36.2 0.3
36.5 0.9
37.2 1.9
37.7 1.5
38.3 1.4
38.7 1.1
39.9 3
40.9 2.7
42.4 3.7
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
92.6 -8.6
90.3 -2.4
89.7 -0.6
91 1.4
92.8 2
95.6 3
97.5 2.1
100.8 3.4
104.2 3.3
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
6.7 -19.3
6.4 -3.7
6.4 0.5
6.7 4.5
6.9 3
7.2 4.5
7.6 4.7
7.9 4
8 1.8
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
85.9 -7.7
83.9 -2.3
83.3 -0.7
84.2 1.1
85.9 1.9
88.3 2.9
89.9 1.8
92.9 3.3
96.2 3.5
7.3 -24.3
6.3 -13.7
5.7 -9.8
5.4 -5.9
5.8 8.2
6.2 7.7
6.5 3.5
7 7.9
7.5 7.8
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
20.2 -9.9
19.8 -2
20.3 2.3
20.9 3.3
21.5 2.7
22.1 2.8
22.6 2.2
23.2 2.8
24 3.6
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
3.5 14.5 2.1
3.4 14.4 2.1
3.3 14.7 2.3
3.4 14.9 2.7
3.4 15.1 3
3.2 15.7 3.2
3.3 16.1 3.2
3.4 16.4 3.4
3.4 17.1 3.7
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
1.2 -16.1
1 -14.9
1 0.1
0.9 -10
0.8 -6.4
0.8 -4.9
0.8 -0.1
0.8 0.1
0.8 -0.4
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
5.1 -13.3
4.2 -18.6
4.2 0.9
4.2 -0.3
4.2 -0.2
4.1 -2.1
4.1 -1.3
3.8 -5.9
3.9 1.6
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
8.3 -4.3
7.9 -4.4
7.9 0.3
8.6 8.3
9.1 5.6
9.5 5.1
9.2 -3.4
9.5 3.3
10.3 8.8
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
12.9 -4.3
13.4 4.1
13.8 3
14.3 3
14.3 0.6
16.8 17.2
17.7 5.2
18.3 3.8
19.1 4.2
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
10 -3.8
10.1 0.9
10.1 0.5
10.3 2.2
10.6 2.7
11.1 4.7
11.9 6.7
12.6 6
12.7 1.3
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
3.3 -8.3
3.4 0.8
3.1 -6.1
2.8 -11.6
2.9 3
3 5.6
3 0.4
3.2 3.7
3.3 3.2
0.7 1.1
0.9 27.6
0.7 -24.3
0.7 0
0.7 0
0.7 0.1
0.7 -0.1
0.7 0.1
0.7 -0.8
16.9 0.4
16.9 0.3
16.4 -3
16.2 -1.4
15.9 -1.6
13.9 -12.8
13.6 -2.2
13.9 2.2
13.8 -0.6
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
330.9 0.3
331.6 0.2
332.7 0.3
334.5 0.5
336.3 0.6
339.7 1
344.3 1.3
349.7 1.6
354.8 1.5
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
134.2 -2.2
132.4 -1.3
131 -1
130.5 -0.4
130.8 0.2
131.6 0.7
130 -1.2
132.7 2
137.5 3.6
Unemployment Rate (%)
12.8
13.6
12.3
10.2
8.5
7.3
6.4
5.8
5
Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
409 391 17
496 494 2
361 359 3
407 406 1
594 582 12
733 696 37
1067 1067 1
1455 1452 3
2183 2088 96
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
90
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
O cala
Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL
June 2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
13.7 6.5 4.8 9
14.6 6.8 5.1 9.6
15.6 6.3 5.4 10.2
16.5 6.1 5.7 10.8
17.5 5.8 6.1 11.4
18.5 5.7 6.5 12
19.5 5.8 6.8 12.7
20.6 5.4 7.2 13.4
21.7 5.2 7.6 14.1
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
12.1 4.9
12.7 4.8
13.2 4.1
13.7 3.8
14.2 3.5
14.7 3.4
15.2 3.4
15.6 3.1
16.1 2.9
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
38.1 33.7
40.1 34.8
42.1 35.7
44.1 36.6
46 37.4
48 38.1
50.1 38.9
52.1 39.6
54.1 40.2
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
44.2 4
46.1 4.3
47.9 4.1
50.1 4.4
52.3 4.4
54.6 4.3
56.8 4.1
59 4
61.4 4
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
107.2 2.9
109.8 2.4
112 2
113.9 1.7
115.9 1.7
117.7 1.5
119.2 1.3
120.8 1.4
122.5 1.3
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
8.1 0.9
8.2 1.3
8.3 1.2
8.3 0.6
8.4 0.5
8.4 0.2
8.4 0.1
8.4 0.1
8.4 0.2
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
99.1 3.1
101.6 2.5
103.7 2.1
105.6 1.8
107.5 1.8
109.3 1.7
110.8 1.4
112.4 1.5
114 1.4
8.1 7.4
8.5 5.7
8.8 3.3
9.1 3.3
9.4 3.5
9.7 3.1
10 2.6
10.2 2.1
10.3 1.1
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
24.3 1.1
24.6 1.1
24.8 0.8
25 0.9
25.2 0.8
25.4 0.6
25.5 0.5
25.7 0.8
25.9 0.7
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
3.5 17.5 3.8
3.5 17.8 3.9
3.6 18 4
3.6 18.2 4
3.7 18.3 4.1
3.7 18.3 4.1
3.7 18.4 4.1
3.7 18.6 4.2
3.7 18.7 4.2
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
0.8 1.7
0.8 0.9
0.8 1.4
0.8 1
0.8 1.2
0.9 1.5
0.9 1.2
0.9 0.8
0.9 0.8
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
4 3.8
4.1 2.6
4.2 1.8
4.3 1.8
4.4 1.8
4.4 1.6
4.5 1.5
4.6 1.5
4.6 1.6
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
11 6.1
11.5 5.2
11.9 2.8
12.3 3.3
12.8 4.2
13.3 4
13.6 2.9
14.1 3.1
14.6 3.6
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
19.7 2.9
20.2 2.6
20.8 3
21.3 2.3
21.7 1.9
22.1 2.1
22.6 2.1
23.1 2.4
23.7 2.5
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
13.3 4.1
13.5 2
13.8 2
14.1 1.8
14.2 1.2
14.3 0.5
14.4 0.4
14.4 0.2
14.4 0.2
3.4 3.1
3.4 1.6
3.4 1.1
3.5 1.2
3.5 0.7
3.5 0.3
3.5 0.3
3.6 0.9
3.6 0.6
0.7 -3.2
0.7 -1.2
0.7 12
0.7 -10.5
0.7 0.5
0.7 0.6
0.7 0.9
0.7 0.4
0.7 -0.2
14 1.4
14.2 1.7
14.5 1.6
14.6 1.2
14.8 1.4
15 1.3
15.2 1
15.3 0.9
15.4 0.6
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
359.9 1.4
365 1.4
369.9 1.3
374.8 1.3
379.8 1.3
384.8 1.3
389.9 1.3
395.3 1.4
400.7 1.4
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
139.1 1.2
141.3 1.6
144.2 2.1
147.1 2
150.1 2
153.1 2
155.6 1.6
157.8 1.4
160.2 1.5
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
4.5
4.4
4.6
4.7
4.8
5
5.1
5.2
5.4
2885 2664 221
3127 2850 277
3203 2910 293
3316 3011 305
3383 3078 304
3420 3119 301
3473 3175 298
3368 3073 295
3274 2980 295
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
91
O cala
Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL
June 2017
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
22.8 5.2 7.9 14.9
24.1 5.4 8.4 15.7
25.5 6.1 8.9 16.6
27 5.9 9.4 17.6
28.7 6 10 18.6
30.4 5.9 10.7 19.7
32.1 5.8 11.3 20.8
34.1 6 12 22.1
36.1 6 12.7 23.4
38.2 5.8 13.5 24.7
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
16.6 3.1
17.2 3.4
17.9 4.1
18.6 3.9
19.3 3.9
20 3.9
20.8 3.8
21.6 3.9
22.4 3.9
23.3 3.7
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
56.2 40.9
58.4 41.7
61.1 42.8
63.8 43.8
66.6 44.9
69.6 45.9
72.6 47
75.8 48.1
79.2 49.3
82.6 50.4
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
63.8 3.9
66.5 4.3
69.6 4.7
72.8 4.6
76.2 4.7
79.8 4.6
83.4 4.6
87.3 4.6
91.3 4.6
95.5 4.5
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
123.9 1.2
125.3 1.1
126.9 1.3
128.7 1.4
130.9 1.7
133 1.6
134.9 1.4
136.6 1.3
138.5 1.4
140.4 1.4
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
8.4 -0.1
8.3 -1
8.3 -0.9
8.2 -0.8
8.1 -0.9
8 -1.1
7.9 -1.2
7.9 -0.9
7.8 -0.6
7.8 -0.5
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
115.5 1.3
117 1.3
118.7 1.5
120.5 1.6
122.7 1.8
125 1.8
126.9 1.6
128.7 1.4
130.7 1.5
132.6 1.5
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
10.3 0.5
10.3 0
10.5 1.7
10.8 2.4
11.1 3.1
11.4 2.3
11.6 2.2
11.9 2.6
12.2 2.2
12.4 2.2
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
26.1 0.8
26.3 0.9
26.5 0.7
26.7 0.7
27 1.1
27.3 1
27.5 0.9
27.7 0.8
27.9 0.8
28.2 0.8
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
3.7 18.9 4.3
3.7 19.1 4.3
3.7 19.2 4.4
3.7 19.5 4.4
3.7 19.8 4.5
3.7 20.1 4.5
3.7 20.4 4.5
3.7 20.6 4.5
3.6 20.9 4.5
3.6 21.3 4.5
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
0.9 0.8
0.9 1.2
0.9 1.5
0.9 1.5
0.9 1.3
1 1.5
1 1.5
1 1.7
1 1.9
1 1.9
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
4.7 1.3
4.7 0.9
4.8 0.9
4.9 1.4
4.9 1.6
5 1.5
5.1 1.3
5.1 1.3
5.2 1.3
5.3 1.4
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
14.9 2.6
15.4 2.8
15.8 3.1
16.2 2.4
16.7 3.2
17.3 3.3
17.7 2.2
18 1.9
18.4 2
18.8 2.3
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
24.3 2.5
24.8 2.1
25.3 2
25.9 2.1
26.4 2.2
27.1 2.4
27.6 2.1
28.1 1.8
28.6 1.7
29 1.6
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
14.5 0.5
14.6 0.7
14.7 0.8
14.8 0.8
15 1.4
15.2 1.2
15.4 1.3
15.6 1
15.8 1.5
16 1.3
3.6 0.3
3.6 0.3
3.6 0.7
3.7 1.2
3.7 1.3
3.8 1.3
3.8 1.4
3.9 1.3
3.9 1.3
4 1.4
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
0.7 -0.3
0.7 4.4
0.8 6.6
0.9 14.4
0.9 1.8
0.9 6.5
1 6.3
1.1 6.3
1.1 6.3
1.2 6.2
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
15.5 0.6
15.6 0.5
15.7 0.8
15.8 0.9
16 0.8
16.1 0.8
16.2 0.8
16.4 0.9
16.5 0.9
16.7 0.9
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
406.1 1.4
411.8 1.4
417.7 1.4
423.7 1.4
430 1.5
436.3 1.5
442.6 1.5
449.1 1.5
455.6 1.5
462.3 1.5
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
162.7 1.6
165.4 1.7
168.3 1.7
171.2 1.8
174.1 1.7
177.1 1.7
180.2 1.7
183.4 1.7
186.7 1.8
190.1 1.8
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
92
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
5.6
5.8
5.8
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.7
3185 2897 288
3108 2826 281
3180 2899 281
3216 2931 285
3264 2980 285
3094 2810 285
3189 2903 286
3322 3033 289
3346 3054 292
3379 3092 288
O cala
Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL
June 2017
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
40.4 5.7 14.2 26.1
42.8 5.9 15.1 27.7
45.4 6.1 16 29.3
48.1 6 17 31.1
50.9 5.8 18 32.8
53.8 5.7 19.1 34.6
56.9 5.8 20.3 36.5
60.2 5.9 21.6 38.6
63.7 5.8 23 40.7
67.3 5.7 24.5 42.9
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
24.1 3.6
25.1 3.8
26 3.9
27.1 3.9
28.1 3.7
29.1 3.6
30.2 3.7
31.3 3.8
32.5 3.7
33.6 3.6
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
86.1 51.5
89.9 52.6
93.9 53.9
98.2 55.3
102.4 56.5
106.7 57.7
111.3 59
116.3 60.4
121.3 61.8
126.4 63.1
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
99.8 4.6
104.4 4.6
109.4 4.7
114.4 4.6
119.6 4.5
125 4.6
130.8 4.6
136.9 4.7
143.3 4.7
150 4.7
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
142.2 1.3
144 1.3
146 1.4
148.1 1.5
150.3 1.5
152.5 1.5
154.9 1.6
157.5 1.7
160.1 1.7
162.6 1.6
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
7.7 -0.6
7.7 -0.7
7.6 -0.7
7.6 -0.7
7.5 -0.6
7.5 -0.8
7.4 -0.8
7.4 -0.9
7.3 -1.1
7.2 -1.7
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
134.4 1.4
136.3 1.4
138.3 1.5
140.5 1.6
142.8 1.6
145 1.6
147.5 1.7
150.1 1.8
152.8 1.8
155.5 1.7
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
12.7 1.9
12.9 1.6
13.1 2
13.4 1.8
13.6 2
13.9 1.9
14.2 1.8
14.5 2.6
14.9 2.4
15.2 2.1
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
28.4 0.7
28.6 0.8
28.8 0.8
29 0.7
29.3 0.9
29.5 0.7
29.8 1
30.1 1
30.4 0.9
30.7 1
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
3.6 21.6 4.5
3.6 21.9 4.5
3.6 22.2 4.5
3.6 22.5 4.5
3.6 22.9 4.5
3.6 23.2 4.5
3.7 23.6 4.5
3.7 23.9 4.5
3.8 24.2 4.5
3.8 24.5 4.5
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
1 1.5
1.1 1.4
1.1 1.2
1.1 1.2
1.1 1.7
1.1 2
1.1 1.8
1.2 1.5
1.2 1
1.2 0.9
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
5.3 1.2
5.4 1.3
5.5 1.2
5.5 1.4
5.6 1.5
5.7 1.5
5.8 1.4
5.9 1.4
6 1.5
6.1 1.6
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
19.2 2
19.6 1.9
20 2.2
20.4 2.4
21 2.7
21.6 2.7
22.2 3.1
23 3.3
23.8 3.4
24.5 3.2
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
29.5 1.5
30 1.8
30.5 1.8
31.2 2
31.8 2.1
32.5 2.1
33.1 2
33.8 2
34.5 2.2
35.3 2.3
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
16.2 1.4
16.4 1.2
16.7 1.5
16.9 1.3
17.1 1.4
17.3 1.1
17.6 1.4
17.7 0.9
17.9 0.8
18 0.5
4 1
4.1 1.2
4.1 1.3
4.2 1.2
4.2 1.3
4.3 1.2
4.3 1.1
4.4 1.2
4.4 1.3
4.5 1.3
1.3 6.1
1.3 5.9
1.4 5.7
1.6 12.2
1.6 -0.8
1.7 6.1
1.8 5
1.9 5.9
2 5.7
2.1 5.6
16.8 0.9
17 0.9
17.1 0.8
17.2 0.8
17.3 0.8
17.5 0.7
17.6 0.8
17.7 0.8
17.9 0.7
18 0.7
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
469 1.5
475.8 1.5
482.7 1.4
489.6 1.4
496.6 1.4
503.9 1.5
511 1.4
517.9 1.4
525.3 1.4
532.5 1.4
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
193.4 1.8
196.7 1.7
200.1 1.7
203.7 1.8
207.2 1.7
210.7 1.7
214.2 1.7
217.6 1.6
221.2 1.6
225 1.7
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.9
6
6
6
5.9
5.9
3342 3061 281
3300 3024 277
3320 3045 275
3298 3024 274
3312 3044 268
3317 3054 264
3394 3134 261
3506 3246 259
3550 3289 260
3584 3324 260
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
93
O cala
Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL
June 2017
2017Q2
2017Q3
2017Q4
2018Q1
2018Q2
2018Q3
2018Q4
2019Q1
2019Q2
2019Q3
2019Q4
2020Q1
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
12.8 6 4.4 8.4
13 5.9 4.5 8.5
13.2 6 4.6 8.6
13.4 6.4 4.6 8.7
13.6 6.4 4.7 8.9
13.8 6.5 4.8 9
14.1 6.7 4.9 9.2
14.3 6.8 5 9.3
14.5 6.9 5 9.5
14.8 6.9 5.1 9.6
15 6.6 5.2 9.8
15.2 6.5 5.3 9.9
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
11.5 4.3
11.6 4.2
11.8 4.5
11.9 4.9
12 4.9
12.2 4.8
12.3 4.9
12.5 4.9
12.6 4.9
12.8 4.9
12.9 4.5
13 4.2
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
36.1 32.5
36.5 32.7
36.9 33
37.4 33.3
37.8 33.5
38.3 33.8
38.9 34.1
39.4 34.4
39.9 34.7
40.4 35
40.9 35.2
41.3 35.4
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
42.3 4.1
42.6 3.1
42.9 3.1
43.4 3.5
43.9 3.7
44.4 4.2
44.9 4.6
45.4 4.4
45.8 4.4
46.3 4.3
46.8 4.1
47.2 4.1
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
103.8 3.7
104.7 3.3
105.4 2.8
106.2 3.2
106.9 3.1
107.6 2.8
108.2 2.6
108.9 2.5
109.5 2.4
110.1 2.4
110.7 2.3
111.2 2.1
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
8 2.8
8 1.5
8 0.8
8.1 0.7
8.1 0.9
8.1 0.9
8.1 1.1
8.2 1.1
8.2 1
8.2 1.4
8.2 1.5
8.3 1.4
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
95.7 3.8
96.6 3.4
97.4 3
98.2 3.4
98.8 3.2
99.5 3
100 2.7
100.7 2.6
101.3 2.5
101.9 2.4
102.4 2.4
102.9 2.2
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
7.4 7.8
7.5 7.4
7.7 7.3
7.8 6.8
8 7.4
8.2 8
8.3 7.2
8.4 7.1
8.5 6.2
8.6 5.2
8.6 4.4
8.7 3.6
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
24 4.6
24.1 3.4
24.2 1.4
24.2 1.3
24.3 1.2
24.3 1.1
24.4 1
24.5 1.2
24.5 1.2
24.6 1.1
24.6 1
24.7 0.9
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
3.4 17 3.7
3.4 17.1 3.7
3.4 17.2 3.8
3.5 17.4 3.8
3.5 17.4 3.8
3.5 17.5 3.8
3.5 17.6 3.9
3.5 17.7 3.9
3.5 17.7 3.9
3.5 17.8 3.9
3.5 17.8 3.9
3.6 17.9 3.9
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
0.8 -0.2
0.8 0.1
0.8 -0.8
0.8 1.5
0.8 2.4
0.8 1.7
0.8 1.1
0.8 -0.1
0.8 0.1
0.8 1.3
0.8 2.3
0.8 2
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
3.9 0.3
3.9 2.7
3.9 4.1
4 4.5
4 4
4 3.6
4.1 3.1
4.1 3
4.1 2.7
4.1 2.5
4.2 2.3
4.2 2
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
10.3 10.6
10.4 7.6
10.6 6.6
10.7 5.9
10.9 6.4
11.1 6.1
11.2 5.9
11.4 5.8
11.5 5.3
11.6 5
11.7 4.7
11.7 3.3
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
19.1 4.9
19.2 4.8
19.4 3.7
19.5 3.4
19.6 3
19.7 2.6
19.8 2.6
20 2.5
20.1 2.5
20.3 2.6
20.4 2.7
20.6 2.8
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
12.7 0.6
12.9 1.2
13 2.9
13.2 5.8
13.2 4.5
13.3 3.4
13.4 2.7
13.4 2.1
13.5 2
13.6 2
13.6 1.9
13.7 1.9
3.2 3.1
3.3 4.6
3.3 3.5
3.3 3.6
3.3 3.4
3.4 3
3.4 2.5
3.4 2.1
3.4 1.8
3.4 1.5
3.4 1.1
3.4 1.1
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
0.7 -0.3
0.7 -0.6
0.7 -1.7
0.7 -2.2
0.7 -3.1
0.7 -3.9
0.7 -3.6
0.6 -5.4
0.7 -2.4
0.7 0.4
0.7 2.7
0.7 11.4
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
13.8 -1.3
13.8 -0.9
13.9 0.2
13.9 1.5
14 1.5
14 1.3
14.1 1.3
14.1 1.4
14.2 1.6
14.3 1.9
14.3 2
14.4 1.9
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
354.1 1.5
355.4 1.4
356.7 1.4
357.9 1.4
359.2 1.4
360.5 1.4
361.8 1.4
363.1 1.4
364.4 1.4
365.6 1.4
366.9 1.4
368.1 1.4
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
137.6 4.5
137.8 3.8
138.1 2.4
138.4 1.5
138.8 0.9
139.3 1.1
139.8 1.3
140.3 1.4
140.9 1.5
141.6 1.6
142.3 1.8
143 1.9
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
94
4.8
4.7
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
2075 1989 87
2298 2171 128
2533 2367 166
2698 2505 193
2841 2620 221
2955 2732 223
3045 2798 247
3101 2836 266
3125 2844 281
3137 2858 278
3144 2862 282
3170 2883 287
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
O rlando – K issimmee – S anford
PROFILES
OUTLOOK SUMMARIES
The Orlando–Kissimmee–Sanford MSA is comprised of Lake, Orange, Osceola and Seminole Counties. Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World, Universal Studios and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic and the Orlando City Soccer Club. Orlando hosts many conventions utilizing some of the biggest hotels in the country and America’s second largest convention center. The University of Central Florida, the nation’s second largest university, and many other places of higher education also reside in the MSA.
The Orlando–Kissimmee–Sanford Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show mixed growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 6.7 percent annually, the highest of the twelve Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). The real per capita income level is expected to average $39,300. Average annual wage growth will be 3.8 percent, the third lowest of the studied areas. The average annual wage will be at a level of $54,200. The Orlando MSA will see an average population growth of 1.9 percent, the second highest of the studied MSAs. Gross Metro Product is expected to average at 131,399.50 million dollars, the third highest of the studied MSAs. Employment growth is forecasted to average 3.2 percent annually, the highest of the MSAs. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 3.4 percent, the second lowest of the MSAs. In the Orlando area, the fastest growing sector is expected to be the Construction and Mining sector with an average annual growth rate of 7.1 percent. This will be followed by the Professional and Business Services sector, with an average annual growth rate of 5.4 percent, and the Leisure sector at 3.8 percent. None of the sectors are expected to decline.
QUICK FACTS: • • • • • • •
MSA population estimate of 2,267,846 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Lake County population estimate of 308,034 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Orange County population estimate of 1,224,267 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Osceola County population estimate of 298,504 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Seminole County population estimate of 436,041 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Civilian labor force of 1,301,264 in May 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database). An unemployment rate of 3.6% as of May 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 47,012 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).
TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • Walt Disney World Resort – 69,000 • Orange County Public Schools – 22,000 • Florida Hospital (Adventist Health) – 17,600 • Universal Orlando (Comcast) – 17,300 • Orlando Health – 14,310 • University of Central Florida – 11,078 • Seminole County Public Schools – 7,786 • Orange County Government – 7,553 • Darden Restaurants Inc. – 7,600 • Osceola County Public Schools – 6,560 • SeaWorld Parks & Entertainment – 6,032 • Lockheed Martin Corporation – 5,774
Source: Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission 2013
METRO NEWS SUMMARIES New $65M-plus Lake Mary luxury apartments to go vertical this summer
• As Lake Mary’s Midtown district has begun to develop, construction on a Drake at Midtown, a $65 million-plus upscale, five-story, 263-unit apartment community, is set to begin vertical construction in June.
• The complex is part of Griffin Farms at Midtown, Unicorp National Development Inc.’s $200 million mixed-use development.
• The project, which is estimated to be complete in June 2018, boasts many amenities, including two clubhouses, a 2,180-square-foot pool with spa, bocce ball court, and a fire pit.
Source: Orlando Business Journal, April 10, 2017
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
95
O rlando – K issimmee – S anford
Two local Lockheed Martin divisions land contracts totaling $48.8M
• Lockheed Martin’s Missiles & Fire Control division entered a $31.1 million contract to provide production, systems engineering, and tooling and test equipment support for the U.S. Air Force’s Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile. • Lockheed’s Rotary & Mission Systems division was awarded a $17.7 million contract from the U.S.Navy for production of seven electronic Consolidated Automated Support Systems (eCass).
• The work on the Air Force contract will all be performed in Orlando and is scheduled for completion on August 31, 2019, while the Navy’s contract has a November 2019 completion date.
• The company already has over 7,000 employees in Orlando, and they are opening up more positions to keep up with the increasing demand from new contracts.
Source: Orlando Business Journal, April 28, 2017
Central Florida Expressway Authority’s largest plan ever to create 11,000-plus jobs
• The Central Florida Expressway Authority has adopted a $1.6 billion work plan to be executed over the course of five years.
• The plan includes provisions for the widening of 40 miles of existing expressways, 60 miles of resurfacing, a new toll system, and new safety initiatives.
• Larger investments planned include completing CFX’s sections of Wekiva Parkway for its scheduled full opening in spring 2018 and setting aside $230 million for the state to use to fund the I-4 Ultimate State Road 408/I-4 Interchange project. • These projects are believed to create over 11,000 jobs over the course of five years, contribute $1 billion in GDP for the local economy, and save 32 hours traveling on the expressways each year.
Source: Orlando Business Journal, May 12, 2017
96
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
Wal-Mart to create hundreds of jobs in Florida with nine new stores • Wal-Mart has recently announced that they plan to invest $450 million in Florida, with a “substantial” portion going towards Central Florida, to create 800 jobs by remodeling 40 existing stores and opening nine new ones.
• O ne of the new locations will open in Orlando in fiscal 2017, and construction on a new distribution center for perishable goods in Cocoa is planned to begin later this year as well.
• These developments have come after Wal-Mart hired over 3,000 employees in Florida by opening more than 20 new stores and remodeling 30 stores throughout the state last year.
Source: Orlando Business Journal, May 25, 2017 Tourist tax revenue up 15.8% in April
• Orange County’s tourist tax revenue increased to $24.3 million in April, which is up 15.8% for the same period last year. • As for resort tax revenue, the county has collected $155.4 million year to date, which is up 5.5% for this time a year ago.
• This money is used to promote tourism in Orange County by helping fund projects to attract visitors and upgrade existing tourism facilities.
Source: Orlando Business Journal, June 2, 2017
O rlando – K issimmee – S anford Orlando - Kissimmee - Sanford MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0
0.2
0.4
Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate (percent)
12.0% 10.0%
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
Orlando Real Gross Metro Product 350000.0
(Millions 2000 $)
300000.0 250000.0
8.0%
200000.0
6.0%
150000.0
4.0% 2.0%
0.6
100000.0 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate
50000.0
Orlando Real Personal Income
Orlando Payroll Employment 2200.0
(Thousands)
2000.0 1800.0 1600.0 1400.0 1200.0 1000.0 800.0
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Orlando Payroll Employment
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Gross Metro Product
10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0%
(percent change year ago)
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Personal Income
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
97
O rlando – K issimmee – S anford
Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
June 2017
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
68.1 -4.9 42 26.1
71.1 4.4 42.3 28.8
75.5 6.2 43.7 31.8
78.3 3.6 46.1 32.1
80.6 3 48.1 32.5
86.2 7 51.4 34.8
92.2 7 55.5 36.8
98 6.2 59.6 38.3
104.9 7.1 64.6 40.3
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
68.3 -4
70.7 3.6
73.2 3.4
74.5 1.9
75.7 1.6
79.7 5.3
85 6.6
89.4 5.1
94.2 5.4
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
32.2 32.3
33.1 33
34.6 33.5
35.1 33.4
35.4 33.3
37 34.2
38.6 35.6
40 36.5
41.9 37.6
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
41.9 -0.6
42.5 1.3
43.3 2
44.5 2.8
44.9 0.9
46.2 2.7
47.7 3.4
49.2 3.2
51.1 3.8
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
997.5 -6.3
992.4 -0.5
1005.3 1.3
1031.5 2.6
1065.3 3.3
1108.8 4.1
1157.5 4.4
1206.3 4.2
1258.4 4.3
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
38.7 -9.6
38 -1.8
38 0
38 -0.1
38.2 0.5
39.6 3.7
41 3.5
42.4 3.6
44.1 3.9
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
958.8 -6.2
954.4 -0.5
967.3 1.4
993.6 2.7
1027.2 3.4
1069.2 4.1
1116.5 4.4
1163.9 4.2
1214.3 4.3
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
54.5 -25
47.7 -12.5
45.2 -5.2
46.2 2.2
51.2 10.8
55.9 9.3
61 9
68 11.6
74.2 9.1
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
186 -7.4
186 0
191.9 3.1
198 3.2
204.3 3.2
212.8 4.1
220.9 3.8
227.2 2.8
235.3 3.6
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
40.4 115.5 30.1
38.4 117.9 29.7
38.4 123.3 30.2
39 128.1 30.9
40.1 132.9 31.3
41.9 138.6 32.3
43.4 142.7 34.8
44.2 145.5 37.5
47.2 151.4 38.3
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
24.8 -5.5
23.8 -4
24 0.9
23.6 -1.7
23.6 -0.2
23.9 1.3
24 0.6
23.8 -0.8
23.2 -2.6
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
65.9 -5.3
65.1 -1.1
65.8 1.1
67.2 2.1
69.7 3.7
70.4 0.9
71.1 1.1
74.1 4.1
77.3 4.4
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
164.1 -7
161.1 -1.8
161.8 0.5
169.2 4.6
175.6 3.8
183.5 4.5
194.9 6.2
205.3 5.3
216.8 5.6
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
118.4 1.7
120.9 2
123.5 2.2
128.1 3.7
131.4 2.6
135.7 3.3
143.2 5.5
148.4 3.6
152.8 3
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
190.1 -4.7
195.6 2.9
203.4 4
210.1 3.3
218.6 4
231 5.7
240.2 4
249.7 4
265.9 6.5
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
39.4 -9
38.5 -2.3
36.5 -5.2
34.8 -4.7
36 3.3
38 5.6
41 8
44.2 7.6
45.6 3.3
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
12.1 2.6
12.8 5.7
12 -6.1
12.3 2.7
12.4 0.6
12.6 1.6
12.9 2.8
14 8.4
14.5 3.2
103.6 -1.5
102.9 -0.7
103.1 0.2
104 0.9
104.5 0.6
105.5 0.9
107.3 1.7
109.2 1.8
108.7 -0.5
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
2116.1 1.2
2145.1 1.4
2183 1.8
2231.4 2.2
2276.9 2
2330.8 2.4
2389.5 2.5
2448.5 2.5
2504.4 2.3
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
1127.6 -1.1
1137.3 0.9
1146.8 0.8
1162.7 1.4
1179.1 1.4
1204.1 2.1
1219.1 1.2
1254.8 2.9
1300.1 3.6
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
98
Unemployment Rate (%)
10.5
11.1
10
8.4
7
6
5.1
4.5
3.8
Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
4492 3767 725
5014 4419 594
5763 4512 1251
10911 7239 3671
14815 9063 5752
14436 9693 4743
19188 12024 7163
22116 15052 7063
24891 15166 9725
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
O rlando – K issimmee – S anford
Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
June 2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
112.2 7 69.5 42.7
119.7 6.7 74.3 45.5
126.8 5.9 78.6 48.2
134.3 5.9 83.3 51
142.1 5.8 88.4 53.7
149.9 5.5 93.4 56.5
157.9 5.3 98.4 59.5
166.1 5.2 103.5 62.6
174.3 5 108.8 65.5
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
99.2 5.4
103.8 4.6
107.7 3.7
111.5 3.6
115.3 3.4
119 3.2
122.6 3
126.1 2.9
129.5 2.7
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
43.9 38.8
46.1 39.9
48 40.8
50.1 41.6
52.1 42.3
54.2 43
56.2 43.6
58.2 44.2
60.2 44.7
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
53.1 3.8
55.2 3.9
57.2 3.7
59.5 4
61.8 4
64.3 3.9
66.7 3.8
69 3.6
71.4 3.5
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
1305.2 3.7
1341.6 2.8
1370.4 2.1
1397 1.9
1424.2 1.9
1449.3 1.8
1470.9 1.5
1494.6 1.6
1518.5 1.6
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
44.5 0.9
45.1 1.4
45.7 1.3
46 0.7
46.3 0.7
46.5 0.4
46.7 0.4
46.9 0.5
47.2 0.6
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
1260.7 3.8
1296.5 2.8
1324.7 2.2
1350.9 2
1377.8 2
1402.8 1.8
1424.2 1.5
1447.7 1.6
1471.3 1.6
80.8 8.8
86 6.5
89.3 3.8
92.9 3.9
96.6 4
100.1 3.6
103.3 3.2
106.2 2.8
108.1 1.8
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
238.5 1.4
241.3 1.2
243.4 0.9
245.5 0.8
247.4 0.8
249 0.6
250.3 0.5
252.5 0.9
254.2 0.7
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
48.8 155.2 39.6
49.9 157.7 40.2
51.1 159.5 40.6
51.9 160.8 40.9
52.6 161.7 41.1
53.2 162.4 41.2
53.7 163.1 41.2
54.2 164.6 41.7
54.5 166.1 42.1
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
23.6 1.8
23.9 1.3
24.3 1.5
24.6 1.2
25 1.5
25.4 1.8
25.8 1.6
26.2 1.3
26.5 1.3
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
79.6 2.9
81 1.8
81.9 1.1
83 1.4
84.1 1.4
85.2 1.3
86.3 1.2
87.3 1.2
88.4 1.2
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
232.1 7
245.4 5.7
253 3.1
261.9 3.5
272.9 4.2
283.9 4.1
292.4 3
302.1 3.3
313.5 3.8
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
157.5 3
161.4 2.5
165.8 2.7
169.2 2
172 1.6
175.1 1.8
178.5 1.9
182.5 2.2
186.8 2.4
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
277.1 4.2
283.3 2.2
289.5 2.2
295.2 2
298.9 1.3
301.1 0.7
302.9 0.6
304.5 0.5
305.7 0.4
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
47.1 3.3
47.9 1.7
48.4 1.1
49 1.3
49.4 0.7
49.6 0.4
49.8 0.4
50.2 1
50.6 0.7
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
14 -3.1
13.9 -1.2
14.6 5.7
13.9 -5.3
14 0.6
14.1 0.7
14.2 0.9
14.3 1
14.4 0.8
110.4 1.6
112.5 1.8
114.3 1.7
115.9 1.4
117.6 1.5
119.3 1.4
120.7 1.2
122 1.1
123.1 0.8
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
2554.3 2
2599.3 1.8
2641.6 1.6
2683.2 1.6
2724.9 1.6
2767.3 1.6
2810.2 1.6
2853.7 1.5
2897.5 1.5
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
1312.3 0.9
1328.3 1.2
1347.8 1.5
1362 1.1
1374.4 0.9
1387.8 1
1401.4 1
1415.5 1
1432.3 1.2
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
3.3
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
4
24065 14986 9079
23702 14810 8892
24628 15071 9558
25719 15671 10048
26362 16035 10327
26909 16340 10568
27384 16718 10666
27030 16266 10764
26756 15791 10965
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
99
O rlando – K issimmee – S anford
Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
June 2017
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
182.8 4.9 114.1 68.7
192.4 5.3 120.1 72.3
204 6 127.3 76.7
215.9 5.8 134.8 81.1
228.9 6 143.3 85.6
242.3 5.9 151.9 90.4
256.3 5.8 160.7 95.6
271.3 5.9 170 101.3
287.1 5.9 179.9 107.3
303.8 5.8 190.4 113.4
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
133.1 2.7
137.4 3.3
142.9 4
148.3 3.8
154.1 3.9
159.9 3.8
165.8 3.7
172.1 3.8
178.6 3.8
185.2 3.7
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
62.1 45.2
64.4 46
67.3 47.1
70.2 48.2
73.3 49.4
76.5 50.5
79.8 51.6
83.2 52.8
86.8 54
90.5 55.2
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
73.9 3.4
76.7 3.8
80 4.3
83.4 4.2
86.9 4.2
90.4 4
94.2 4.2
98.2 4.2
102.3 4.2
106.6 4.2
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
1539.4 1.4
1561.1 1.4
1586.7 1.6
1612.5 1.6
1643.8 1.9
1675 1.9
1701.7 1.6
1726.9 1.5
1754 1.6
1782.3 1.6
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
47.4 0.3
47.2 -0.4
47 -0.3
46.9 -0.3
46.7 -0.4
46.5 -0.6
46.2 -0.6
46 -0.4
46 -0.1
45.9 0
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
1492 1.4
1513.9 1.5
1539.7 1.7
1565.6 1.7
1597.1 2
1628.5 2
1655.5 1.7
1680.9 1.5
1708.1 1.6
1736.4 1.7
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
109.6 1.4
110.6 1
113.5 2.6
117.1 3.2
121.6 3.8
125.2 2.9
128.7 2.8
132.9 3.2
136.6 2.8
140.3 2.7
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
256.1 0.7
258.1 0.8
259.8 0.6
261.4 0.6
264.1 1
266.4 0.9
268.4 0.8
270.1 0.6
272 0.7
273.9 0.7
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
54.8 167.6 42.4
54.8 169.2 42.4
54.7 170.6 42.6
54.8 172.6 42.7
55.2 175.5 42.9
55.6 178 43
55.8 180.5 43.1
55.9 182.6 43
55.9 185.5 42.7
56 188.4 42.5
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
26.8 1.3
27.3 1.8
27.9 2.2
28.5 2
29 1.9
29.6 2
30.2 2
30.9 2.2
31.6 2.4
32.3 2.3
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
89.2 1
89.9 0.8
90.7 0.8
91.7 1.1
92.8 1.3
93.9 1.2
94.8 1
95.7 0.9
96.6 0.9
97.5 0.9
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
321.8 2.6
331.2 2.9
342.2 3.3
350.8 2.5
362.6 3.4
375 3.4
383.6 2.3
391.4 2
400 2.2
410 2.5
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
191.2 2.3
194.9 2
198.6 1.9
202.4 1.9
206.5 2.1
211 2.2
214.9 1.9
218.6 1.7
221.8 1.5
225.3 1.6
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
307.9 0.7
310.9 1
314.1 1
317.3 1
322.3 1.6
326.9 1.4
331.6 1.5
335.6 1.2
341 1.6
345.9 1.4
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
50.8 0.4
51 0.4
51.4 0.7
52 1.2
52.7 1.3
53.4 1.3
54.1 1.4
54.8 1.3
55.5 1.3
56.2 1.3
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
14.5 0.7
14.9 2.3
15.3 3.1
16.8 9.3
16.5 -1.6
17 3
17.5 2.9
18 2.9
18.5 2.9
19 2.8
124.1 0.8
125 0.7
126.2 1
127.6 1.1
128.9 1
130.3 1
131.5 1
133 1.1
134.4 1.1
135.9 1.1
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
2941.5 1.5
2985.7 1.5
3030.3 1.5
3075.3 1.5
3120.8 1.5
3166.8 1.5
3213.1 1.5
3260 1.5
3307.2 1.5
3355 1.4
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
1450.2 1.3
1471.7 1.5
1495.2 1.6
1519.2 1.6
1542.7 1.5
1566.6 1.6
1591.1 1.6
1615.7 1.5
1642.4 1.7
1669.4 1.6
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
100
4.1
4.3
4.3
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.3
4.2
4.2
26359 15333 11027
25934 14919 11015
26429 15269 11160
26897 15447 11450
27358 15694 11663
26657 14791 11866
27348 15264 12083
28299 15958 12342
28694 16111 12582
28869 16327 12542
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
O rlando – K issimmee – S anford
Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
June 2017
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
321 5.7 201.2 119.8
339.5 5.7 212.7 126.8
359.3 5.8 224.9 134.4
380.2 5.8 237.8 142.3
402.9 6 252.5 150.4
426.6 5.9 267.8 158.7
451.9 5.9 284.4 167.5
479.1 6 302.2 177
508.4 6.1 321.4 187
539.2 6.1 341.8 197.4
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
191.9 3.6
198.9 3.7
206.3 3.7
214 3.7
222.3 3.9
230.7 3.8
239.5 3.8
249 3.9
258.9 4
269.1 3.9
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
94.3 56.4
98.3 57.6
102.6 58.9
107.1 60.3
111.9 61.8
116.9 63.2
122.1 64.7
127.6 66.3
133.5 68
139.5 69.6
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
111 4.2
115.7 4.2
120.4 4.1
125.3 4
130.8 4.4
136.5 4.3
142.4 4.3
148.5 4.3
155 4.4
161.9 4.4
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
1808.3 1.5
1834.5 1.4
1863.4 1.6
1894.1 1.6
1926.6 1.7
1958.6 1.7
1993.3 1.8
2030.3 1.9
2069.1 1.9
2107.5 1.9
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
45.9 -0.2
45.8 -0.2
45.7 -0.2
45.6 -0.2
45.6 -0.1
45.4 -0.3
45.3 -0.3
45.1 -0.3
44.9 -0.5
44.5 -0.9
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
1762.5 1.5
1788.7 1.5
1817.7 1.6
1848.5 1.7
1881 1.8
1913.2 1.7
1948 1.8
1985.1 1.9
2024.2 2
2063 1.9
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
143.9 2.5
147.2 2.3
151.1 2.7
154.7 2.4
158.7 2.6
162.6 2.5
167 2.7
172.8 3.5
178.4 3.3
183.7 3
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
275.5 0.6
277.2 0.6
279.1 0.7
280.8 0.6
283 0.8
284.7 0.6
287 0.8
289.4 0.8
291.8 0.8
294.4 0.9
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
56 191.2 42.1
56 193.8 41.8
56.1 196.8 41.5
56.4 199.6 41.3
56.9 202.9 41
57.6 205.2 40.8
58.5 208.1 40.5
59.5 210.7 40.2
60.6 213.4 39.9
61.8 215.9 39.8
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
33 2
33.6 1.8
34.1 1.6
34.7 1.5
35.3 2
36.2 2.3
36.9 2
37.5 1.8
38.1 1.6
38.7 1.5
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
98.3 0.8
99.1 0.9
99.9 0.8
100.8 0.9
101.9 1
102.9 1
103.8 0.9
104.9 1
105.9 1
107.1 1.1
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
418.8 2.1
427.5 2.1
437.4 2.3
448.1 2.4
460.3 2.7
473 2.8
487.3 3
503.7 3.4
521.3 3.5
538.7 3.3
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
228.4 1.3
232 1.6
235.5 1.5
240.1 1.9
244.8 2
249.4 1.9
253.5 1.6
257.3 1.5
261.3 1.6
265.5 1.6
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
351 1.5
355.7 1.3
361.4 1.6
366.5 1.4
372.1 1.5
376.6 1.2
382 1.4
386 1
390.6 1.2
394.7 1
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
56.8 1
57.4 1.1
58.1 1.2
58.8 1.1
59.4 1.2
60.1 1
60.7 1.1
61.5 1.3
62.4 1.3
63.3 1.5
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
19.5 2.7
20.1 2.6
20.6 2.5
21.8 6.2
21.6 -1.1
22.2 2.7
22.7 2.1
23.3 2.6
23.8 2.5
24.4 2.5
137.3 1.1
138.9 1.1
140.5 1.2
142.1 1.2
143.8 1.2
145.5 1.1
147.1 1.1
148.8 1.2
150.6 1.2
152.4 1.2
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
3403.2 1.4
3451.8 1.4
3500.8 1.4
3550.1 1.4
3599.7 1.4
3649.2 1.4
3701.9 1.4
3755.2 1.4
3809.4 1.4
3864 1.4
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
1696.1 1.6
1722.5 1.6
1749.2 1.5
1777.8 1.6
1805.6 1.6
1833.6 1.6
1862.5 1.6
1890.5 1.5
1920.5 1.6
1952.1 1.6
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
4.2
4.2
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.3
28609 16215 12393
28401 16070 12331
28600 16211 12389
28600 16113 12487
28569 16230 12338
28561 16286 12275
28995 16713 12282
29639 17325 12314
30031 17594 12437
30366 17805 12561
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
101
O rlando – K issimmee – S anford
Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
June 2017
2017Q2
2017Q3
2017Q4
2018Q1
2018Q2
2018Q3
2018Q4
2019Q1
2019Q2
2019Q3
2019Q4
2020Q1
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
104 7.3 64 40
105.8 6.7 65.2 40.6
107.5 7.1 66.3 41.2
109.5 7.2 67.7 41.8
111.2 6.9 68.9 42.3
113.1 6.9 70.1 43
115.1 7 71.4 43.7
117 6.9 72.6 44.5
118.8 6.8 73.7 45.1
120.7 6.7 74.8 45.9
122.4 6.3 75.9 46.5
124.1 6.1 76.9 47.2
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
93.6 5.6
94.8 4.9
96 5.6
97.5 5.7
98.6 5.4
99.8 5.2
101 5.2
102.3 4.9
103.3 4.8
104.4 4.7
105.3 4.2
106.2 3.9
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
41.6 37.5
42.1 37.8
42.6 38.1
43.2 38.4
43.6 38.7
44.2 39
44.7 39.3
45.3 39.6
45.8 39.8
46.3 40.1
46.8 40.3
47.3 40.5
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
51 4.3
51.3 3.2
51.7 3.2
52.3 3.5
52.8 3.5
53.3 3.9
53.9 4.3
54.4 4.1
54.9 4
55.4 3.9
55.9 3.6
56.4 3.7
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
1251.2 4.4
1265.8 4.2
1278.3 4.6
1290.9 4.3
1301.1 4
1310.3 3.5
1318.5 3.1
1329.2 3
1337.6 2.8
1346.4 2.8
1353.2 2.6
1359.4 2.3
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
44.1 4.1
44.1 2.8
44.2 3.7
44.3 0.7
44.5 1
44.6 1
44.7 1.2
44.9 1.3
45 1.2
45.2 1.4
45.4 1.5
45.5 1.5
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
1207.1 4.4
1221.6 4.3
1234.2 4.7
1246.6 4.4
1256.6 4.1
1265.7 3.6
1273.8 3.2
1284.3 3
1292.6 2.9
1301.2 2.8
1307.8 2.7
1313.9 2.3
73.2 8.5
74.8 8.3
76.7 10.5
78.4 8.7
79.9 9.2
81.6 9.1
83.1 8.3
84.5 7.8
85.6 7.1
86.6 6.1
87.5 5.2
88.2 4.4
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
234.6 3.7
235.9 3.1
236.9 3.4
237.4 1.6
238.1 1.5
239 1.3
239.6 1.1
240.5 1.3
241 1.2
241.6 1.1
242 1
242.9 1
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
46.9 150.8 38.1
47.4 152.1 38.5
48 153 39
48.4 154.4 39.4
48.7 154.8 39.6
49 155.5 39.7
49.2 155.9 39.8
49.6 157 40
49.8 157.5 40.1
50.1 158.2 40.3
50.3 158.3 40.4
50.7 159 40.5
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
23.2 -2.6
23.2 -3.1
23.2 -2.1
23.6 1.4
23.8 2.5
23.6 1.9
23.5 1.5
23.7 0.3
23.9 0.5
24 1.7
24.1 2.6
24.2 2.3
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
77 4.6
77.7 4.3
78.4 4.4
79 3.5
79.4 3
79.8 2.7
80.2 2.3
80.6 2
80.9 1.9
81.1 1.7
81.4 1.6
81.6 1.3
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
214.7 6
218.7 5.4
222 6.2
226.7 7
230.8 7.5
234.1 7
236.7 6.6
241 6.3
244.3 5.8
247.1 5.6
249.1 5.2
250 3.7
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
152.2 3.3
153.7 3
154.8 2.9
156.1 3.7
157.1 3.2
157.9 2.7
158.8 2.5
159.9 2.4
160.8 2.4
162 2.5
163 2.7
164.2 2.7
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
263.8 6.3
268.4 7.5
272.1 7
274.7 6
276.1 4.7
278 3.6
279.6 2.8
281.1 2.3
282.2 2.2
284.1 2.2
285.6 2.1
287.1 2.1
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
45.3 2.7
45.8 3
46.2 4.2
46.7 3.8
47 3.6
47.2 3.1
47.4 2.6
47.7 2.1
47.8 1.8
47.9 1.6
48 1.2
48.2 1.1
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
14.5 4
14.5 2.4
14.4 -0.3
14.2 -2
14.1 -3
13.9 -3.8
13.9 -3.5
13.9 -2.5
13.9 -1.4
13.9 -0.6
13.8 -0.3
13.7 -0.9
108.5 -0.5
109 -1.2
109.5 0
109.8 1.8
110.3 1.7
110.6 1.5
111 1.4
111.6 1.6
112.2 1.7
112.8 2
113.3 2.1
113.8 2
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
2498.1 2.3
2511.4 2.3
2523.8 2.2
2536.5 2.1
2548.7 2
2560.3 1.9
2571.7 1.9
2583 1.8
2594.1 1.8
2604.8 1.7
2615.3 1.7
2625.9 1.7
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
1301.1 4.2
1302.6 3.6
1303.7 2.8
1307.1 1.1
1310.3 0.7
1314 0.9
1317.8 1.1
1321.7 1.1
1325.6 1.2
1330.5 1.3
1335.4 1.3
1340.6 1.4
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
102
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.2
24809 15095 9714
24759 14951 9808
24544 14881 9663
24507 14974 9533
24437 14988 9449
23720 15043 8677
23598 14940 8659
23492 14856 8635
23756 14769 8987
23684 14799 8885
23876 14816 9060
24132 14890 9242
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
P alm B a y – M elbourne – T itus v ille
PROFILES
OUTLOOK SUMMARIES
The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is comprised of Brevard County only. Typically known as “Florida’s Space Coast”, this area is home to the Kennedy Space Center. Located in the central part of Florida’s east coast, the region is home to Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, Patrick Air Force Base and government contractors such as Harris Corporation. Like much of Florida, this area is growing fast; Port Canaveral is now a leading cruise ship port.
The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income growth is expected to average 5.8 percent each year. Real per capita income levels should average $40,500. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 4.2 percent. Average annual wage levels should be at $56,400. Population growth is expected to be an average of 1.3 percent, and the Gross Metro Product level is expected to average 20,169.15 million dollars. Employment growth is forecasted to average 2.2 percent each year. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 3.9 percent. Construction and Mining is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 5.8 percent growth annually. The Professional and Business Services sector will see the second highest average annual growth rate at 3.9 percent, followed by the Leisure and Education and Health Services sectors, both averaging at 2.3 percent. The Federal Government sector will experience a decline with average annual growth rates of -0.7.
QUICK FACTS:
• Population estimate of 550,823 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 268,804 in May 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).
• An unemployment rate of 4.1% as of May 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 11,076 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:
• Brevard County School Board – 9,520 • Health First, Inc. – 7,800
METRO NEWS SUMMARIES
• Brevard County Government – 2,380
Brevard property values rise in ‘robust’ market
• Harris Corporation – 5,890
• Department of Defense – 2,170 • NASA – 2,067
• Eastern Florida State College – 1,590 • Rockwell Collins Inc. – 1,410
• Florida Institute Of Technology – 1,280
• Northrop Grumman Corporation – 1,345 • Brevard County Sheriff Office – 1,175 • Parrish Medical Center – 1,075
• Wuesthoff Medical Center – 1,055
Source: Brevard Economic Development Council, 2011
• Recently released data from the office of Brevard County, Property Appraiser Dan Blickley shows that property values sustained a strong increase through 2016. • General fund taxable value of property in Brevard stood at $34.29 billion at the end of 2016, an increase of 7.5 percent from $31.91 billion at the start of the year. • This bodes well for the county’s budget, as revenues from property taxes this year will increase. The county will also see new tax revenues from a healthy number of ongoing construction projects.
Source: Florida Today, June 3, 2017
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
103
P alm B a y – M elbourne – T itus v ille
Port Canaveral commissioners proceed with plan to repair cargo piers
• Port Canaveral commissioners voted unanimously to seek bids for design work on a project to repair the port’s North Cargo Piers 1 and 2. • The project is expected to cost around $2.5 million and take six to eight months. It will also create about 50 temporary construction jobs. • Morton Salt and Seaport Canaveral, the tenants of the two piers, are working with the port to ensure that cargo operations are virtually uninterrupted while the repairs take place.
Source: Florida Today, May 26, 2017
Port land deal with Wal-Mart clears way for 450-employee distribution center
• Wal-Mart has bought a 271-acre site previously owned by Port Canaveral and has committed to building a distribution center and refrigerated warehouse complex on the land.
• The port sold the land for $5.75 million after buying it for only $1.95 million in 2014. In 2016, Wal-Mart was considering buying just 130 acres, but eventually bought all 271. • The presence of the distribution center should increase cargo business for the port, as well as create jobs in the region and pave the way for more development in the surrounding communities.
Source: Florida Today, May 26, 2017 Space Florida avoids budget cuts
• Space Florida, which is tasked with growing aerospace business in the state, received the same funding ($19.5 million) that it did last fiscal year in this year’s state budget. • The agency’s board of directors is relieved to have avoided the legislature’s attack on economic development agencies, as the legislature cut Enterprise Florida and Visit Florida’s budgets by $7.5 million and $25 million, respectively.
104
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
• The budget-slashing has largely been a result of negative news surrounding Visit Florida, which orchestrated a controversial $1 million deal with Miami rapper Pitbull.
Source: Florida Today, May 19, 2017
Winners and losers in Brevard’s new budget
• The release of Brevard County’s budget plan for 2017 revealed significant budget cuts for many organizations. Officials cited money needed for roads as a main reason for the cutbacks. • Among the biggest losers are Brevard Cultural Alliance, which lost $20,000, and emergency financial services, which saw a budget cut of a whopping $168,000.
• Economic development agencies avoided cuts in the county despite vicious cutbacks at the state level. Several other proposed cuts were not approved, and some were disappointed that the budget was not reduced more.
Source: Florida Today, April 29, 2017
P alm B a y – M elbourne – T itus v ille Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0
0.5
Florida & Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Unemployment Rate (percent)
12.0%
1
1.5
45000.0
8.0%
30000.0
6.0%
25000.0
4.0%
20000.0
320.0
10000.0
8.0% 6.0%
280.0
4.0%
260.0
2.0%
240.0
0.0%
220.0
-2.0%
200.0
-4.0% 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Palm Bay Payroll Employment
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Gross Metro Product
Palm Bay Real Personal Income
300.0
180.0
(Millions 2000 $)
15000.0
Palm Bay Payroll Employment (Thousands)
3
40000.0 35000.0
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 FL Unemployment Rate Palm Bay Unemployment Rate
2.5
Palm Bay Real Gross Metro Product
10.0%
2.0%
2
-6.0%
(percent change year ago)
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Personal Income
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
105
P alm B a y – M elbourne – T itus v ille
Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
June 2017
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
19.4 -3.9 9.2 10.3
20.0 3.0 9.3 10.8
20.9 4.6 9.3 11.6
20.9 -0.4 9.3 11.5
21.0 0.6 9.4 11.6
21.8 4.1 9.5 12.3
23.0 5.4 10.1 12.9
24.2 5.0 10.8 13.4
25.5 5.7 11.6 14.0
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
19.5 -3.1
19.9 2.2
20.3 1.9
19.9 -2.1
19.7 -0.8
20.2 2.5
21.2 5.1
22.0 3.9
22.9 4.0
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
35.8 35.9
36.8 36.6
38.4 37.2
38.0 36.2
38.0 35.7
39.1 36.1
40.4 37.3
41.6 38.0
43.2 38.8
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
46.2 2.3
47.1 1.8
47.5 1.0
47.5 0.0
48.0 1.0
47.8 -0.5
49.4 3.4
50.9 3.0
53.0 4.1
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
195.6 -5.2
193.9 -0.9
193.6 -0.1
193.6 0.0
193.0 -0.3
197.0 2.0
201.7 2.4
209.2 3.7
215.7 3.1
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
21.8 -8.1
20.5 -5.9
20.8 1.2
20.9 0.8
20.1 -3.8
20.1 -0.2
21.0 4.5
22.4 6.6
23.4 4.5
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
173.8 -4.9
173.4 -0.3
172.9 -0.3
172.7 -0.1
172.9 0.1
176.9 2.3
180.8 2.2
186.9 3.4
192.3 2.9
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
9.9 -23.9
8.7 -12.1
8.2 -5.8
8.4 3.1
9.1 8.8
9.9 8.3
11.1 12.5
12.4 11.7
13.4 7.9
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
33.3 -6.8
33.0 -0.8
34.4 4.1
34.9 1.7
35.0 0.1
35.7 2.0
36.1 1.2
36.6 1.5
37.4 2.1
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
5.2 24.9 3.2
5.0 24.7 3.3
5.2 25.1 4.1
5.2 25.5 4.3
5.5 25.6 3.9
5.5 26.7 3.5
5.1 27.6 3.4
5.0 28.2 3.4
5.2 28.8 3.6
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
2.6 4.8
2.4 -7.4
2.3 -4.8
2.3 -2.5
2.1 -5.9
2.4 11.0
2.3 -3.7
2.2 -1.5
2.3 3.6
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
7.9 -4.9
7.6 -3.5
7.5 -1.4
7.6 1.4
7.5 -2.2
7.3 -2.5
7.2 -0.7
7.6 5.7
7.9 3.6
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
31.6 -6.6
31.6 0.2
30.6 -3.4
28.2 -7.6
27.4 -2.7
28.5 3.7
28.9 1.7
29.8 2.9
30.6 2.8
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
31.2 1.8
32.3 3.6
32.8 1.3
32.8 0.1
32.8 0.1
33.2 1.0
33.8 2.0
35.2 4.1
36.3 3.0
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
21.3 -4.0
21.2 -0.4
21.6 1.7
22.7 5.4
23.0 1.1
24.0 4.4
25.5 6.4
26.5 4.1
27.5 3.7
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
6.9 -6.2
7.1 2.7
7.3 2.7
7.4 1.0
7.5 1.6
8.0 6.3
7.9 0.0
8.5 7.4
8.8 2.8
6.3 1.3
6.7 7.4
6.4 -5.1
6.2 -2.1
6.2 -0.7
6.1 -1.3
6.2 1.3
6.3 1.4
6.3 0.5
22.8 -0.1
22.6 -0.8
22.0 -2.8
22.2 0.8
22.3 0.7
22.0 -1.2
21.7 -1.8
21.6 -0.2
21.9 1.1
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
542.5 0.1
543.9 0.3
545.0 0.2
548.2 0.6
552.2 0.7
558.9 1.2
569.4 1.9
580.5 2.0
590.8 1.8
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
265.4 -0.8
265.6 0.1
265.2 -0.2
262.7 -0.9
258.6 -1.6
258.1 -0.2
256.1 -0.7
262.0 2.3
271.4 3.6
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
106
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
10.4
11.2
10.9
9.4
8.3
7.0
5.9
5.2
4.3
975.9 869.6 106.3
1082.8 995.2 87.6
975.9 846.8 129.1
1120.1 1115.8 4.3
1351.4 1335.7 15.6
1268.0 1230.0 37.9
1893.4 1634.4 259.1
1958.4 1817.8 140.6
3547.3 2551.2 996.2
P alm B a y – M elbourne – T itus v ille
Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
June 2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
27.0 5.9 12.3 14.7
28.7 6.1 13.1 15.6
30.3 5.7 13.9 16.4
32.0 5.5 14.7 17.3
33.7 5.4 15.5 18.2
35.4 5.3 16.4 19.0
37.3 5.3 17.3 20.1
39.2 5.1 18.2 21.0
41.1 4.9 19.1 22.0
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
23.9 4.3
24.9 4.0
25.7 3.4
26.5 3.2
27.3 3.0
28.1 2.9
29.0 3.0
29.8 2.8
30.6 2.6
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
45.2 39.9
47.4 41.1
49.5 42.0
51.6 42.9
53.8 43.7
56.0 44.5
58.3 45.3
60.6 46.0
62.9 46.7
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
55.1 4.1
57.6 4.4
60.0 4.3
62.7 4.5
65.5 4.4
68.3 4.3
71.1 4.2
74.0 4.1
77.0 4.0
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
220.8 2.4
224.8 1.8
228.1 1.5
231.0 1.3
234.3 1.4
237.4 1.3
239.9 1.1
242.7 1.2
245.5 1.2
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
23.6 0.9
23.9 1.3
24.1 1.1
24.3 0.6
24.4 0.7
24.6 0.5
24.7 0.4
24.8 0.4
24.9 0.5
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
197.2 2.5
201.0 1.9
204.0 1.5
206.7 1.3
209.9 1.5
212.8 1.4
215.2 1.1
217.9 1.3
220.6 1.2
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
14.4 7.0
15.1 5.4
15.6 3.0
16.1 3.2
16.6 3.4
17.1 3.1
17.6 2.8
18.0 2.3
18.2 1.3
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
37.6 0.4
37.7 0.4
37.8 0.2
37.9 0.4
38.1 0.4
38.2 0.3
38.3 0.2
38.5 0.5
38.7 0.4
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
5.4 29.2 3.7
5.5 29.4 3.8
5.6 29.5 3.8
5.7 29.6 3.8
5.8 29.6 3.9
5.9 29.6 3.9
5.9 29.6 3.9
6.0 29.7 3.9
6.1 29.9 4.0
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
2.3 0.8
2.3 0.4
2.4 1.0
2.4 0.8
2.4 1.2
2.4 1.6
2.5 1.4
2.5 1.0
2.5 0.9
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
8.1 2.5
8.2 1.7
8.3 1.1
8.4 1.3
8.6 1.4
8.7 1.3
8.8 1.2
8.9 1.2
9.0 1.2
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
32.5 6.3
34.0 4.7
34.7 2.1
35.6 2.6
36.9 3.5
38.1 3.3
38.9 2.2
39.9 2.5
41.1 3.0
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
37.0 2.1
37.7 1.9
38.6 2.4
39.3 1.7
39.9 1.5
40.5 1.6
41.2 1.7
42.0 2.0
42.9 2.1
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
28.3 2.9
28.6 1.1
29.0 1.3
29.4 1.3
29.6 0.7
29.6 0.2
29.6 0.1
29.6 -0.1
29.6 -0.2
8.9 1.7
9.0 0.4
9.0 0.1
9.0 0.4
9.0 0.0
9.0 -0.2
9.0 -0.2
9.0 0.3
9.0 0.0
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
6.1 -4.0
5.9 -2.1
6.1 2.8
5.9 -3.8
5.8 -0.2
5.8 0.0
5.9 0.2
5.9 0.4
5.9 0.2
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
22.1 1.0
22.3 1.2
22.6 1.2
22.8 0.9
23.1 1.1
23.3 1.1
23.5 0.8
23.7 0.7
23.8 0.4
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
598.2 1.3
605.1 1.1
612.1 1.2
619.1 1.1
626.0 1.1
633.0 1.1
640.0 1.1
646.8 1.1
653.8 1.1
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
274.9 1.3
278.9 1.5
283.6 1.7
288.0 1.5
292.2 1.5
296.4 1.4
299.5 1.1
301.9 0.8
304.5 0.9
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
3.8
3.7
3.8
3.9
4.1
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.7
4486.8 3337.3 1149.5
4765.3 3601.3 1164.1
4906.2 3654.6 1251.6
5140.5 3832.2 1308.3
5277.7 3938.8 1338.9
5386.8 4034.1 1352.7
5517.7 4160.5 1357.1
5349.9 3998.5 1351.4
5201.8 3836.4 1365.4
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
107
P alm B a y – M elbourne – T itus v ille
Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
June 2017
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
43.1 4.8 20.1 23.0
45.3 5.1 21.1 24.2
47.9 5.8 22.4 25.5
50.6 5.6 23.7 26.9
53.4 5.6 25.1 28.3
56.5 5.6 26.7 29.8
59.6 5.5 28.2 31.4
62.9 5.6 29.8 33.1
66.4 5.6 31.5 34.9
70.0 5.5 33.2 36.8
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
31.4 2.7
32.3 3.1
33.5 3.7
34.7 3.6
36.0 3.6
37.3 3.6
38.5 3.4
39.9 3.5
41.3 3.5
42.7 3.4
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
65.2 47.5
67.8 48.4
71.0 49.7
74.2 50.9
77.5 52.2
80.9 53.4
84.5 54.7
88.3 56.0
92.3 57.4
96.5 58.8
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
80.1 4.0
83.5 4.3
87.5 4.8
91.6 4.7
96.0 4.8
100.5 4.7
105.1 4.6
110.0 4.7
115.0 4.6
120.3 4.6
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
247.8 1.0
250.1 0.9
252.9 1.1
256.0 1.2
259.3 1.3
262.7 1.3
265.5 1.1
268.0 1.0
270.7 1.0
273.5 1.0
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
25.0 0.3
24.9 -0.3
24.8 -0.2
24.8 -0.2
24.7 -0.3
24.6 -0.5
24.5 -0.5
24.4 -0.3
24.4 -0.1
24.4 0.0
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
222.9 1.0
225.2 1.1
228.1 1.3
231.2 1.4
234.6 1.5
238.1 1.5
241.0 1.2
243.6 1.1
246.4 1.1
249.1 1.1
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
18.4 0.7
18.4 0.2
18.7 1.9
19.2 2.5
19.8 3.2
20.3 2.4
20.7 2.3
21.3 2.7
21.8 2.3
22.3 2.2
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
38.9 0.5
39.1 0.6
39.3 0.5
39.5 0.5
39.8 0.9
40.1 0.7
40.3 0.6
40.5 0.5
40.8 0.6
41.0 0.6
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
6.1 30.0 4.0
6.1 30.2 4.0
6.1 30.3 4.0
6.2 30.6 4.0
6.2 30.9 4.1
6.3 31.2 4.1
6.3 31.5 4.1
6.3 31.8 4.1
6.4 32.1 4.1
6.4 32.5 4.0
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
2.5 1.0
2.6 1.5
2.6 1.9
2.7 1.7
2.7 1.6
2.8 1.7
2.8 1.7
2.9 1.9
2.9 2.0
3.0 1.9
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
9.1 1.0
9.1 0.8
9.2 0.8
9.3 1.1
9.4 1.3
9.6 1.2
9.7 1.0
9.8 1.0
9.8 0.9
9.9 0.9
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
41.9 2.0
42.9 2.2
44.0 2.6
44.7 1.8
45.9 2.6
47.1 2.7
47.8 1.6
48.4 1.2
49.1 1.4
49.9 1.7
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
43.8 2.1
44.6 1.8
45.3 1.6
46.0 1.7
46.9 1.8
47.8 1.9
48.5 1.6
49.2 1.3
49.7 1.2
50.3 1.1
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
29.6 0.2
29.7 0.5
29.9 0.5
30.0 0.5
30.3 1.0
30.6 0.8
30.8 0.9
31.0 0.6
31.3 1.0
31.6 0.8
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
9.0 -0.3
8.9 -0.2
9.0 0.2
9.0 0.6
9.1 0.6
9.1 0.6
9.2 0.7
9.2 0.6
9.3 0.5
9.3 0.5
5.9 0.1
6.0 1.0
6.0 1.3
6.5 7.5
6.3 -3.2
6.3 1.3
6.4 1.2
6.5 1.2
6.6 1.3
6.7 1.2
23.9 0.5
24.0 0.3
24.1 0.6
24.3 0.7
24.4 0.6
24.6 0.6
24.7 0.5
24.8 0.7
25.0 0.6
25.2 0.6
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
660.8 1.1
667.9 1.1
674.9 1.1
682.1 1.1
689.9 1.2
697.5 1.1
704.8 1.1
711.9 1.0
718.7 1.0
725.4 0.9
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
307.3 0.9
310.7 1.1
314.6 1.3
318.5 1.3
322.4 1.2
326.2 1.2
330.1 1.2
333.9 1.2
338.0 1.2
342.1 1.2
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
108
4.8
5.0
5.0
4.9
4.8
4.8
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.8
5081.5 3718.2 1363.3
4985.8 3637.9 1347.9
5137.1 3776.4 1360.7
5185.1 3793.8 1391.3
5295.9 3887.5 1408.4
5060.9 3635.4 1425.5
5255.1 3809.1 1446.0
5482.6 4006.3 1476.4
5497.3 3994.8 1502.5
5550.1 4057.5 1492.6
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
P alm B a y – M elbourne – T itus v ille
Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
June 2017
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
73.8 5.4 35.1 38.7
77.8 5.5 37.0 40.8
82.2 5.7 39.1 43.1
86.8 5.6 41.4 45.5
91.5 5.4 43.7 47.9
96.4 5.4 46.1 50.4
101.7 5.4 48.7 53.0
107.3 5.6 51.5 55.8
113.4 5.6 54.6 58.8
119.6 5.5 59.7 3.4
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
44.1 3.3
45.6 3.4
47.2 3.6
48.9 3.5
50.5 3.3
52.2 3.3
53.9 3.3
55.8 3.5
57.7 3.5
59.7 3.4
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
100.8 60.2
105.4 61.7
110.4 63.4
115.6 65.1
120.9 66.7
126.4 68.4
132.3 70.1
138.7 72.0
145.5 74.1
152.6 76.2
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
125.8 4.6
131.7 4.7
137.9 4.7
144.1 4.6
150.5 4.4
157.1 4.4
164.1 4.4
171.4 4.5
179.2 4.6
187.4 4.6
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
276.0 0.9
278.5 0.9
281.3 1.0
284.4 1.1
287.5 1.1
290.6 1.1
294.2 1.2
298.0 1.3
302.0 1.3
305.7 1.2
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
24.3 -0.2
24.3 -0.1
24.3 -0.1
24.2 -0.2
24.2 -0.1
24.1 -0.3
24.1 -0.2
24.0 -0.3
23.9 -0.4
23.7 -0.6
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
251.6 1.0
254.2 1.0
257.0 1.1
260.2 1.2
263.3 1.2
266.5 1.2
270.1 1.4
274.0 1.5
278.1 1.5
282.0 1.4
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
22.7 2.0
23.1 1.6
23.5 2.0
23.9 1.7
24.4 1.9
24.8 1.8
25.3 1.8
25.9 2.6
26.5 2.4
27.1 2.1
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
41.2 0.5
41.5 0.6
41.7 0.5
41.9 0.5
42.1 0.6
42.3 0.5
42.7 0.8
43.0 0.8
43.3 0.7
43.6 0.7
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
6.4 32.8 4.0
6.4 33.1 4.0
6.4 33.5 4.0
6.5 33.8 3.9
6.6 34.2 3.9
6.6 34.4 3.9
6.8 34.8 3.9
6.9 35.1 3.9
7.0 35.5 3.8
7.2 35.7 3.8
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
3.0 1.6
3.1 1.4
3.1 1.2
3.1 1.1
3.2 1.6
3.3 2.0
3.3 1.8
3.4 1.6
3.4 1.4
3.5 1.2
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
10.0 0.8
10.1 0.9
10.2 0.8
10.3 0.9
10.4 1.0
10.5 1.0
10.6 1.0
10.7 1.0
10.8 1.0
10.9 1.1
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
50.6 1.4
51.3 1.3
52.1 1.5
53.0 1.8
54.1 2.1
55.2 2.1
56.5 2.4
58.1 2.7
59.7 2.8
61.2 2.6
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
50.8 1.0
51.5 1.3
52.1 1.3
52.9 1.5
53.7 1.6
54.6 1.6
55.4 1.5
56.2 1.5
57.1 1.6
58.1 1.7
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
31.9 0.9
32.1 0.8
32.4 1.0
32.7 0.8
33.0 0.9
33.2 0.6
33.4 0.9
33.6 0.5
33.8 0.6
33.9 0.4
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
9.3 0.2
9.4 0.3
9.4 0.4
9.5 0.3
9.5 0.4
9.5 0.3
9.5 0.2
9.6 0.2
9.6 0.2
9.6 0.2
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
6.7 1.2
6.8 1.1
6.9 1.0
7.2 4.8
7.0 -2.6
7.1 1.2
7.2 0.7
7.2 1.2
7.3 1.1
7.4 1.0
25.3 0.6
25.5 0.6
25.6 0.6
25.8 0.6
26.0 0.7
26.1 0.6
26.3 0.6
26.4 0.7
26.6 0.6
26.7 0.5
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
732.0 0.9
738.4 0.9
744.6 0.9
750.8 0.8
756.8 0.8
763.0 0.8
768.6 0.7
774.1 0.7
779.3 0.7
783.9 0.6
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
346.0 1.2
349.9 1.1
353.8 1.1
358.0 1.2
362.1 1.2
366.1 1.1
370.0 1.1
373.7 1.0
377.6 1.1
381.8 1.1
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.9
4.9
4.9
5.0
4.9
5.0
4.9
5486.4 4015.4 1471.0
5427.4 3963.4 1463.9
5499.4 4028.8 1470.6
5458.9 3979.2 1479.7
5451.5 3994.2 1457.4
5456.2 4012.7 1443.5
5565.4 4127.4 1438.0
5726.7 4285.4 1441.3
5758.2 4305.7 1452.5
5783.0 4321.8 1461.2
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
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P alm B a y – M elbourne – T itus v ille
Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
June 2017
2017Q2
2017Q3
2017Q4
2018Q1
2018Q2
2018Q3
2018Q4
2019Q1
2019Q2
2019Q3
2019Q4
2020Q1
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
25.4 5.8 11.5 13.9
25.7 5.2 11.7 14
26.1 5.6 11.8 14.2
26.5 5.9 12 14.4
26.8 5.8 12.2 14.6
27.2 5.8 12.4 14.8
27.6 6 12.6 15
28.1 6.1 12.8 15.2
28.5 6.1 13 15.5
28.9 6.2 13.2 15.7
29.3 5.9 13.4 15.9
29.7 5.7 13.6 16.1
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
22.8 4.1
23 3.5
23.3 4.1
23.6 4.5
23.8 4.2
24 4.2
24.3 4.2
24.5 4.1
24.8 4.2
25 4.1
25.2 3.7
25.4 3.5
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
43 38.7
43.4 38.9
43.9 39.2
44.4 39.5
44.9 39.8
45.4 40.1
46 40.4
46.6 40.7
47.1 41
47.7 41.2
48.1 41.4
48.7 41.6
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
52.8 4.5
53.2 3.5
53.6 3.6
54.2 3.8
54.8 3.7
55.4 4.2
56.1 4.6
56.7 4.5
57.3 4.5
57.9 4.4
58.5 4.3
59.1 4.3
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
214.9 3.4
216.5 2.3
217.9 2.4
219.2 2.7
220.4 2.5
221.4 2.3
222.2 2
223.5 2
224.4 1.8
225.3 1.8
226.1 1.7
226.6 1.4
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
23.3 5.6
23.4 3.3
23.4 1.8
23.5 0.6
23.6 0.9
23.6 0.9
23.6 1.1
23.7 1.1
23.8 1.1
23.9 1.3
24 1.5
24 1.3
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
191.6 3.2
193.1 2.2
194.5 2.5
195.7 2.9
196.8 2.7
197.8 2.4
198.6 2.1
199.8 2.1
200.6 1.9
201.4 1.8
202.1 1.7
202.6 1.4
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
13.3 8.5
13.5 5.7
13.7 6.1
14 6.2
14.2 7
14.5 7.7
14.7 6.9
14.9 6.8
15 5.8
15.2 4.8
15.3 4.1
15.4 3.3
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
37.3 2
37.5 1.5
37.5 2.4
37.5 0.6
37.5 0.5
37.6 0.4
37.6 0.3
37.7 0.4
37.7 0.4
37.7 0.3
37.7 0.2
37.8 0.2
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
5.2 28.8 3.6
5.2 28.9 3.7
5.3 29 3.7
5.3 29.2 3.7
5.4 29.2 3.7
5.4 29.2 3.7
5.4 29.3 3.7
5.4 29.4 3.8
5.5 29.4 3.8
5.5 29.5 3.8
5.5 29.4 3.8
5.6 29.5 3.8
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
2.3 3.5
2.3 -0.3
2.3 0
2.3 0.4
2.3 1.5
2.3 0.9
2.3 0.5
2.3 -0.6
2.3 -0.4
2.3 0.8
2.3 1.9
2.4 1.6
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
7.9 3.9
7.9 3.4
8 2.7
8 3
8.1 2.7
8.1 2.4
8.2 2
8.2 2
8.2 1.7
8.2 1.5
8.3 1.4
8.3 1.2
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
30.3 2.9
30.9 1.8
31.3 3.3
31.8 6.4
32.4 6.7
32.8 6.2
33.1 5.7
33.6 5.4
33.9 4.8
34.2 4.4
34.4 4
34.4 2.6
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
36.2 3.5
36.4 2
36.6 2
36.8 2.6
37 2.2
37.1 1.9
37.3 1.8
37.5 1.8
37.6 1.8
37.8 1.9
38 2
38.3 2.2
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
27.4 4
27.7 3.9
28 3.1
28.2 4.3
28.2 3.2
28.4 2.4
28.4 1.7
28.5 1.2
28.6 1.1
28.7 1
28.7 1
28.8 1.1
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
8.7 2.8
8.8 2.8
8.8 2
8.9 2.2
8.9 1.9
8.9 1.5
8.9 1
9 0.8
9 0.6
9 0.3
8.9 0
9 0
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
6.3 1.3
6.3 0
6.3 -1.5
6.2 -3
6.1 -3.9
6 -4.8
6 -4.4
6 -3.1
5.9 -2.2
5.9 -1.6
5.9 -1.3
5.7 -3.8
21.8 1.2
21.9 0.7
21.9 1.2
22 1.1
22 1
22.1 0.9
22.1 0.8
22.2 0.9
22.3 1.1
22.4 1.4
22.5 1.5
22.5 1.4
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
589.8 1.8
592 1.7
594.1 1.6
595.7 1.5
597.4 1.3
599.1 1.2
600.8 1.1
602.5 1.1
604.2 1.1
605.9 1.2
607.7 1.2
609.5 1.2
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
271.5 4.4
272.2 3.5
272.8 2.7
273.6 1.6
274.4 1.1
275.4 1.2
276.3 1.3
277.3 1.4
278.3 1.4
279.4 1.5
280.6 1.6
281.8 1.6
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
110
4.2
4.1
4
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.8
3391 2430 961
3760 2685 1076
4026 2888 1138
4280 3103 1177
4488 3281 1207
4544 3440 1104
4635 3525 1111
4702 3595 1107
4784 3600 1185
4780 3611 1169
4795 3600 1195
4825 3609 1215
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
P ensacola – F err y P ass – B rent
PROFILES
OUTLOOK SUMMARIES
The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is comprised of Escambia County and Santa Rosa County. Located in the northwest corner of Florida bordering Alabama, the region is home to the Pensacola Naval Air Station, Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval Aviation. This area has been referred to as the “Cradle of Naval Aviation.”
The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see low levels of growth in the economic indicators relative to the twelve other areas studied. Personal income growth is expected to average 5.7 percent each year, the lowest of the twelve studied MSAs. The real per capita income level is expected to average $38,500. The average annual wage growth rate should be 3.9 percent, while the average annual wage level is expected to be $50,300. Population growth will be at an average rate of 0.8 percent, the lowest of the studied MSAs. The Gross Metro Product is expected to average 15,336.83 million dollars. Employment growth is expected to average 1.4 percent each year, the lowest of the MSAs. The unemployment rate will average 3.6 percent. The Construction and Mining sector will be the fastest growing sector in Pensacola, with a 4.9 percent average annual growth rate. The Professional and Business Services sector will follow with an average growth rate of 3.1 percent. The Information and Federal Government sectors are expected to experience negative growth with average annual growth rates of -1.6 and -1.8 percent, respectively.
QUICK FACTS:
• Metro population estimate of 466,913 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Escambia County population estimate of 305,817 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Santa Rosa County population estimate of 161,096 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 221,477 in May 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).
• An unemployment rate of 3.9% as of May 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 8,533 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:
• Local Government – 13,857
• Federal Government – 7,162 • State Government – 5,253
• Sacred Heart Health System – 5,000 • Baptist Health Care – 3,163 • Lakeview – 2,000
• Ascend Performance Materials – 1,400 • Gulf Power Company – 1,365
• West Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,300 • University of West Florida – 1,231
• Navy Federal Credit Union – 1,200
Sources: Pensacola Chamber of Commerce, Agency for Workforece Innovation, Company web sites, Reference USA
METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Economist: High-skilled labor needed for port
• Rick Harper, a local economist, stated that Port of Pensacola Warehouse 4 would see high returns on investment if the newly purposed area could be filled with high paying jobs requiring greater skills. • The mayor of Pensacola, Ashton Hayward, is looking to turn the currently city-owned, general storage warehouse into a marine research center for the Institute for Human & Machine Cognition and maybe University of West Florida. • Rick Harper has suggested various way for the nonprofit facility to garner greater economic activity, including possibly working with the military and bringing in private firms on site as well.
Source: Pensacola News Journal, May 26, 2017
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
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P ensacola – F err y P ass – B rent
Passengers on the rise at Pensacola International Airport
• Overall, Pensacola International Airport saw a total of 805,045 departing passengers in 2016, which is about 6% higher than the number of departures in 2012. Though, current airport traffic still falls flat compared to the months before the Great Recession.
• In the first quarter of 2017, departures were 4.7% greater than the first quarter of 2013. • New direct flights will be available throughout the season of summer, such as Kansas City to Pensacola, through Southwest Airlines.
Source: Pensacola News Journal, May 9, 2017
Pensacola tech training startup Invictus to launch in September
• What once started as a plan to train her family in technology, Vickie Patterson now plans to open a tech training startup in the Pensacola area in late September of this year. • While Patterson is still in the process of researching the market, she plans to offer courses for those from all levels of technological skills. The business is set to open in the soon-to-berelocated Cowork Annex in downtown. • Vickie Patterson has substantial experience in the technology industry, having worked for IBM since 2001.
Source: Pensacola News Journal, May 15, 2017
Regulators approve Gulf Power rate settlement
• Gulf Power in Northwest Florida proposed a base-rate increase of $62 million through 2019 with a target return on equity of 10.25%. This settlement was approved by state utility regulators and will be in effect starting July.
• This was deemed a reasonable settlement by a variety of parties apart of the decision. Gulf Power originally planned to have a base-rate increase of $106.8 million with an 11% return on equity.
112
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
• Gulf Power plans to use the increased funds on improving infrastructure in order to better serve its customers.
Source: Pensacola News Journal, April 4, 2017
Santa Rosa needs 1,500 new homes a year to keep up with demand • The Home Builders Association of West Florida completed a housing study led by local economist Rick Harper indicating that in order to match population growth in Santa Rosa County, 1,500 homes will need to be built every year for the next eight years. • From this needed construction, the study estimates that 5,327 jobs will be created with a total of $288 million in income.
• When presenting the study’s finding, Harper stated, “Really, the housing market in Santa Rosa is very healthy at this point in time. There’s a rising number of transactions in the new home market and existing home market.”
Source: Pensacola News Journal, April 24, 2017
P ensacola – F err y P ass – B rent Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation,Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0
0.2
0.4
Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate (percent)
12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 FL Unemployment Rate Pensacola Unemployment Rate
0.6
210.0 200.0 190.0 180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Pensacola Payroll Employment
1
1.2
1.4
Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product 28000.0 26000.0 24000.0 22000.0 20000.0 18000.0 16000.0 14000.0 12000.0
(Millions 2000 $)
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Gross Metro Product
Pensacola Real Personal Income
Pensacola Payroll Employment (Thousands)
0.8
8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%
(percent change year ago)
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Personal Income
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
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P ensacola – F err y P ass – B rent
Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
June 2017
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
15.2 -1.6 6.8 8.4
15.8 3.9 6.9 8.9
16.6 5.1 7.1 9.5
17 2.6 7.3 9.8
17.1 0.1 7.4 9.7
17.8 4.3 7.6 10.2
18.7 4.9 8 10.6
19.5 4.2 8.5 11
20.4 4.7 9 11.4
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
15.2 -0.7
15.7 3
16.1 2.3
16.2 0.9
16 -1.2
16.5 2.7
17.2 4.6
17.7 3.1
18.3 3
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
34 34.1
35 34.8
36.4 35.2
36.8 35
36.4 34.2
37.6 34.8
39 35.9
40 36.5
41.3 37.1
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
40.3 2.8
40.3 0
41.3 2.5
42.1 1.8
42.1 0
43.3 2.7
44.6 3.1
45.8 2.6
47.4 3.5
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
154.7 -5.1
156.6 1.2
158.2 1
158.2 0
159.9 1.1
162.9 1.8
167.1 2.6
172.5 3.2
176.6 2.4
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
5.4 -16.7
5.4 -0.6
5.5 2.6
5.6 1.2
5.9 5.6
6 2.2
6.1 1.1
6.3 3.6
6.2 -1.1
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
149.3 -4.6
151.2 1.3
152.6 1
152.6 0
154 0.9
156.9 1.8
161 2.6
166.2 3.2
170.4 2.5
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
10.6 -16.2
10.6 -0.6
9.8 -6.7
9.4 -4
9.2 -2.5
9.5 3.6
10 4.5
10.7 7.8
11.4 6.5
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
30.1 -6.8
29.4 -2.4
29.8 1.3
30 0.9
30.4 1.2
31.1 2.2
31.7 2
32.5 2.5
33.4 2.6
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
5.4 20.1 4.6
5.1 20.2 4.1
4.9 20.8 4.1
4.9 21.1 4
4.9 21.5 4.1
5 22 4.1
5.1 22.5 4
5.5 23 4.1
5.6 23.7 4.2
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
3 -7.2
3.1 1.7
2.7 -12.5
2.4 -12.3
2.3 -1
2.3 -2.5
2.2 -3.3
2 -7.2
1.9 -6.8
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
8.8 -2.8
8.7 -1.2
8.7 0
9 3.4
9.9 10
10.7 8.6
11.7 8.7
12.4 6
12.9 4.4
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
18.4 -3.6
19.7 6.7
21.1 7.1
21.3 1.3
21.5 1
21.7 0.6
22.4 3.4
22.4 -0.2
22.9 2.6
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
25.7 -1.1
26.7 3.8
27.4 2.4
27 -1.4
26.6 -1.3
26.8 0.6
27.7 3.3
29 4.9
28.8 -0.8
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
17.5 -2
17.9 2.3
18.9 5.6
19.3 2.1
20.3 5
20.9 3.2
21.6 2.9
22.9 6.2
24.5 7
6.6 -10.1
6.1 -6.8
5.8 -5.4
5.7 -1.6
5.7 -0.5
6 5.2
5.8 -3.5
5.9 2.8
6 0.5
6.5 0.3
7.2 10.2
6.9 -4.7
6.8 -0.8
6.6 -2.4
6.5 -2.2
6.5 0.5
6.6 1.5
6.6 -0.6
21.9 -2.1
21.8 -0.3
21.6 -0.8
21.6 -0.2
21.4 -0.8
21.4 0
21.5 0.8
21.7 0.7
22 1.3
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
447.1 0.4
451.4 1
456.5 1.1
463.2 1.5
468.8 1.2
473.4 1
479.2 1.2
486.6 1.5
493.3 1.4
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
207.1 -0.5
211 1.9
213.4 1.1
212.5 -0.4
212 -0.2
212.6 0.3
211.8 -0.3
216.5 2.2
222.4 2.7
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
114
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
9.6
9.8
9.3
8.1
7
6.1
5.3
4.8
4.1
1036 955 81
1820 1373 447
1201 1200 1
1479 1463 16
1981 1865 116
1828 1663 165
2783 2030 753
3054 2557 498
2733 2467 266
P ensacola – F err y P ass – B rent
Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
June 2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
21.4 5 9.5 11.9
22.5 5.2 10 12.5
23.6 4.9 10.4 13.2
24.7 4.8 10.9 13.8
25.9 4.6 11.5 14.4
27 4.5 12.1 15
28.2 4.5 12.6 15.7
29.4 4.2 13.1 16.3
30.6 3.9 13.6 17
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
18.9 3.4
19.5 3.2
20 2.7
20.5 2.5
21 2.3
21.5 2.2
21.9 2.2
22.3 1.9
22.7 1.7
43 38
45 39
47 39.9
49 40.7
51 41.4
53.1 42.2
55.3 42.9
57.5 43.6
59.6 44.3
49.2 3.9
51.2 4.1
53.3 4
55.5 4.3
57.9 4.3
60.4 4.2
62.8 4.1
65.3 3.9
67.7 3.7
Personal Income (Billions $)
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
179.3 1.5
181.1 1
182.5 0.8
183.6 0.6
184.9 0.7
186 0.6
186.5 0.3
187.1 0.3
187.6 0.3
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
6.3 0.3
6.3 0.7
6.3 0.7
6.3 0.1
6.3 -0.1
6.3 -0.2
6.3 -0.3
6.3 -0.4
6.3 -0.2
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
173 1.5
174.8 1.1
176.2 0.8
177.2 0.6
178.6 0.8
179.6 0.6
180.2 0.3
180.8 0.3
181.3 0.3
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
12.2 6.2
12.7 4.6
13 2.3
13.3 2.5
13.7 2.7
14 2.1
14.2 1.5
14.3 1
14.4 0.2
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
33.3 -0.3
33.1 -0.4
33 -0.5
32.8 -0.4
32.7 -0.5
32.5 -0.6
32.2 -0.8
32.1 -0.5
31.9 -0.6
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
5.8 23.8 4.2
5.8 23.8 4.2
5.9 23.6 4.2
5.9 23.5 4.2
5.9 23.3 4.2
6 23.1 4.1
5.9 22.9 4.1
5.9 22.8 4.1
5.9 22.7 4.1
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
1.9 0.4
1.9 -0.2
1.9 0.4
1.9 0.1
1.9 0.4
1.9 0.7
2 0.5
2 0.1
2 0
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
13.2 1.9
13.3 0.9
13.3 0.3
13.4 0.5
13.5 0.7
13.6 0.5
13.6 0.5
13.7 0.4
13.7 0.4
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
24 4.6
24.9 3.7
25.2 1.4
25.8 2.1
26.5 3
27.3 2.8
27.7 1.7
28.3 1.9
28.9 2.4
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
29 0.9
29.2 0.7
29.6 1.2
29.8 0.7
29.9 0.4
30.1 0.6
30.3 0.7
30.5 0.9
30.8 0.9
25.2 2.7
25.4 1
25.7 1.2
26 1.2
26.2 0.6
26.2 0
26.1 -0.3
26 -0.5
25.8 -0.6
6 1.1
6 -0.1
6 -0.3
6 0
6 -0.3
6 -0.6
5.9 -0.6
5.9 -0.1
5.9 -0.5
6.3 -4.8
6.1 -2.8
6.2 1.2
5.9 -4
5.9 -0.9
5.8 -0.8
5.8 -0.7
5.8 -0.6
5.7 -0.7
22 0.1
22.1 0.4
22.2 0.4
22.2 0.1
22.3 0.3
22.3 0.3
22.3 0
22.3 -0.2
22.2 -0.4
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
497.3 0.8
500.2 0.6
502.7 0.5
505 0.4
507.1 0.4
509 0.4
510.8 0.3
512.2 0.3
513.5 0.2
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
223.5 0.5
225 0.7
227 0.9
228.8 0.8
230.4 0.7
231.8 0.6
232.2 0.2
231.8 -0.1
231.6 -0.1
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
3.5
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.7
3.8
4
4.1
4.2
2501 2104 397
2261 1832 430
2313 1856 456
2378 1920 458
2419 1960 459
2443 1987 456
2493 2035 457
2421 1968 453
2357 1901 456
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
115
P ensacola – F err y P ass – B rent
Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
June 2017
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
31.8 3.9 14.1 17.7
33.1 4.1 14.7 18.4
34.7 4.8 15.4 19.2
36.3 4.7 16.2 20.1
38 4.6 17 21
39.8 4.7 17.9 21.9
41.6 4.5 18.7 22.9
43.5 4.6 19.6 23.9
45.5 4.6 20.4 25
47.5 4.5 21.4 26.2
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
23.1 1.8
23.6 2.1
24.3 2.8
24.9 2.7
25.6 2.6
26.3 2.6
26.9 2.5
27.6 2.6
28.3 2.5
29 2.5
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
61.8 45
64.2 45.9
67.2 47.1
70.2 48.2
73.4 49.4
76.7 50.6
80 51.8
83.6 53
87.3 54.3
91.1 55.5
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
70.2 3.8
73.1 4.1
76.4 4.6
79.9 4.5
83.5 4.5
87.2 4.5
91 4.4
95 4.4
99.1 4.3
103.4 4.3
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
187.8 0.1
188.1 0.1
188.7 0.3
189.6 0.5
190.5 0.5
191.6 0.6
192.2 0.3
192.5 0.2
193 0.2
193.5 0.3
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
6.2 -0.4
6.2 -1.2
6.1 -1.1
6 -1.1
6 -1.2
5.9 -1.4
5.8 -1.4
5.7 -1.2
5.7 -0.9
5.6 -0.8
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
181.6 0.2
181.9 0.2
182.6 0.4
183.6 0.5
184.6 0.5
185.7 0.6
186.4 0.3
186.8 0.2
187.3 0.3
187.8 0.3
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
14.3 -0.4
14.2 -0.9
14.3 0.6
14.5 1.4
14.8 2.2
15 1.4
15.2 1.2
15.4 1.6
15.6 1.3
15.8 1.3
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
31.7 -0.5
31.5 -0.5
31.3 -0.6
31.2 -0.6
31.1 -0.2
31 -0.4
30.8 -0.5
30.6 -0.6
30.4 -0.5
30.3 -0.5
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
5.9 22.5 4.1
5.8 22.5 4.1
5.8 22.3 4
5.7 22.3 4
5.7 22.3 4
5.7 22.3 4
5.6 22.3 3.9
5.6 22.2 3.9
5.6 22.2 3.8
5.5 22.2 3.8
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
2 0.1
2 0.6
2 0.9
2 0.8
2 0.6
2 0.7
2 0.8
2.1 1
2.1 1.1
2.1 1
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
13.7 0.2
13.7 0
13.8 0
13.8 0.3
13.9 0.5
13.9 0.4
13.9 0.2
14 0.1
14 0.1
14 0.1
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
29.3 1.4
29.8 1.7
30.4 2
30.8 1.2
31.4 2
32.1 2.1
32.4 1
32.6 0.7
32.9 0.8
33.2 1.1
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
31.1 1
31.4 0.7
31.5 0.6
31.7 0.6
31.9 0.7
32.2 0.8
32.4 0.5
32.4 0.2
32.5 0.1
32.5 0
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
25.8 -0.2
25.8 0.1
25.9 0.1
25.9 0.1
26 0.6
26.2 0.4
26.3 0.5
26.3 0.2
26.5 0.6
26.6 0.4
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
5.8 -0.7
5.8 -0.5
5.8 -0.2
5.8 0.2
5.8 0.1
5.8 0.2
5.8 0.2
5.9 0.2
5.9 0.1
5.9 0.1
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
5.7 -0.8
5.7 0.1
5.7 0.4
6.1 6.6
5.8 -4.3
5.8 0.4
5.8 0.3
5.9 0.4
5.9 0.4
5.9 0.4
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
22.1 -0.4
22 -0.5
21.9 -0.3
21.9 -0.2
21.9 -0.2
21.8 -0.3
21.7 -0.3
21.7 -0.2
21.6 -0.2
21.6 -0.3
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
514.5 0.2
515.3 0.2
516.1 0.2
517 0.2
517.8 0.1
518.6 0.2
519.4 0.1
520.3 0.2
521.1 0.2
522.1 0.2
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
231.5 -0.1
231.8 0.1
232.6 0.3
233.5 0.4
234.2 0.3
234.9 0.3
235.6 0.3
236.1 0.2
236.8 0.3
237.4 0.3
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
116
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
4.4
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
2292 1842 450
2231 1794 437
2290 1849 441
2316 1866 450
2357 1905 453
2238 1784 454
2313 1855 458
2415 1947 468
2429 1954 475
2453 1984 470
P ensacola – F err y P ass – B rent
Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
June 2017
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
49.6 4.4 22.3 27.3
51.9 4.5 23.3 28.5
54.3 4.7 24.4 29.9
56.8 4.6 25.5 31.3
59.3 4.5 26.7 32.6
62 4.5 27.9 34.1
64.8 4.6 29.2 35.6
67.9 4.8 30.7 37.2
71.2 4.9 32.3 38.9
74.6 4.8 34 40.7
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
29.7 2.3
30.4 2.5
31.2 2.6
32 2.6
32.7 2.4
33.5 2.4
34.4 2.6
35.3 2.7
36.3 2.8
37.3 2.7
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
94.9 56.7
99 58
103.4 59.3
107.9 60.7
112.5 62.1
117.3 63.5
122.8 65.1
128.8 66.9
135.3 68.9
142.2 71
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
107.9 4.3
112.5 4.3
117.5 4.4
122.5 4.3
127.6 4.2
132.9 4.1
138.4 4.2
144.3 4.3
150.7 4.4
157.4 4.4
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
193.7 0.1
194 0.1
194.4 0.2
195.1 0.4
195.7 0.3
196.5 0.4
197.8 0.7
199.3 0.7
201 0.8
202.5 0.7
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
5.6 -1
5.5 -1
5.5 -1
5.4 -1
5.4 -0.9
5.3 -1.1
5.2 -1.1
5.2 -1.1
5.1 -1.4
5 -1.8
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
188.2 0.2
188.5 0.2
189 0.3
189.7 0.4
190.3 0.3
191.2 0.5
192.6 0.7
194.1 0.8
195.9 0.9
197.4 0.8
16 1
16.1 0.7
16.2 1
16.4 0.8
16.6 1.2
16.7 1.1
16.9 1
17.2 1.8
17.5 1.6
17.7 1.2
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
30.1 -0.6
29.9 -0.6
29.7 -0.6
29.5 -0.6
29.4 -0.5
29.3 -0.5
29.2 -0.1
29.2 -0.1
29.2 -0.2
29.1 -0.1
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
5.5 22.2 3.7
5.4 22.2 3.6
5.4 22.2 3.6
5.3 22.2 3.5
5.3 22.2 3.4
5.4 22.1 3.4
5.4 22.2 3.3
5.5 22.2 3.3
5.5 22.2 3.2
5.6 22.2 3.2
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
2.1 0.7
2.1 0.5
2.1 0.4
2.2 0.3
2.2 0.8
2.2 1.2
2.2 1.2
2.2 1
2.3 0.6
2.3 0.5
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
14 0
14 0.1
14 0
14 0.1
14 0.2
14.1 0.3
14.1 0.4
14.2 0.4
14.3 0.5
14.3 0.5
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
33.5 0.8
33.7 0.7
34.1 0.9
34.5 1.2
35 1.5
35.5 1.6
36.2 2.1
37.1 2.3
38 2.4
38.8 2.1
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
32.4 -0.1
32.5 0.2
32.6 0.2
32.7 0.4
32.9 0.5
33 0.6
33.3 0.6
33.5 0.6
33.7 0.7
34 0.7
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
26.7 0.5
26.9 0.4
27 0.6
27.1 0.5
27.3 0.6
27.4 0.4
27.6 0.8
27.7 0.5
28 0.8
28.2 0.7
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
5.9 -0.2
5.8 -0.1
5.8 0
5.8 -0.1
5.8 -0.1
5.8 0
5.8 0
5.8 0
5.8 0
5.8 -0.1
5.9 0.3
6 0.3
6 0.1
6.2 3.9
6 -3.4
6 0.5
6 0.1
6.1 0.6
6.1 0.5
6.1 0.4
21.5 -0.2
21.5 -0.2
21.4 -0.4
21.3 -0.4
21.2 -0.4
21.1 -0.4
21.1 -0.2
21.1 -0.1
21.1 0.2
21.2 0.2
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
523.1 0.2
524.2 0.2
525.2 0.2
526.3 0.2
527.3 0.2
528.2 0.2
528.1 0
527.7 -0.1
526.5 -0.2
525 -0.3
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
237.9 0.2
238.4 0.2
238.9 0.2
239.6 0.3
240.2 0.2
240.6 0.2
241 0.2
241.3 0.1
241.6 0.1
242.1 0.2
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.6
4.5
2428 1967 461
2402 1945 458
2429 1969 460
2411 1950 462
2410 1958 452
2407 1964 443
2453 2016 438
2527 2089 439
2548 2106 442
2563 2119 444
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
117
P ensacola – F err y P ass – B rent
Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
June 2017
2017Q2
2017Q3
2017Q4
2018Q1
2018Q2
2018Q3
2018Q4
2019Q1
2019Q2
2019Q3
2019Q4
2020Q1
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
20.2 4.6 8.9 11.3
20.5 4.4 9 11.4
20.7 5 9.2 11.6
21 5 9.3 11.7
21.2 4.9 9.4 11.8
21.5 5 9.5 12
21.8 5.2 9.7 12.1
22.1 5.3 9.8 12.3
22.4 5.3 9.9 12.5
22.6 5.3 10 12.6
22.9 5 10.1 12.8
23.2 4.9 10.2 12.9
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
18.2 2.9
18.4 2.7
18.5 3.5
18.7 3.6
18.8 3.4
19 3.3
19.1 3.4
19.3 3.3
19.5 3.3
19.6 3.3
19.7 2.9
19.8 2.7
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
41.1 36.9
41.5 37.1
41.9 37.4
42.3 37.7
42.8 37.9
43.2 38.1
43.7 38.4
44.3 38.7
44.8 38.9
45.2 39.1
45.7 39.3
46.2 39.5
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
47.2 3.6
47.6 3.1
47.9 3.5
48.5 3.6
48.9 3.6
49.5 4
50 4.3
50.5 4.2
51 4.2
51.5 4.1
52 3.9
52.5 3.9
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
176.2 2.7
177.1 1.9
177.9 2.3
178.5 1.8
179.1 1.7
179.6 1.4
179.9 1.2
180.6 1.2
181 1.1
181.3 1
181.6 0.9
181.7 0.6
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
6.2 -1.5
6.2 -1.2
6.2 0
6.2 0.1
6.3 0.4
6.3 0.3
6.3 0.5
6.3 0.5
6.3 0.5
6.3 0.8
6.3 1
6.3 1
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
169.9 2.8
170.9 2.1
171.6 2.4
172.3 1.8
172.8 1.7
173.3 1.4
173.7 1.2
174.3 1.2
174.7 1.1
175 1
175.3 0.9
175.4 0.6
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
11.3 6.3
11.5 6
11.7 6.6
11.9 5.7
12.1 6.3
12.3 6.7
12.4 5.9
12.6 5.9
12.7 5
12.8 4.1
12.8 3.4
12.9 2.5
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
33.3 3.4
33.4 2.3
33.4 1.2
33.3 -0.1
33.3 -0.2
33.2 -0.4
33.2 -0.5
33.2 -0.3
33.2 -0.3
33.1 -0.4
33.1 -0.5
33.1 -0.5
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
5.6 23.7 4.1
5.7 23.8 4.2
5.7 23.8 4.2
5.8 23.8 4.2
5.8 23.8 4.2
5.8 23.8 4.2
5.8 23.8 4.2
5.8 23.8 4.2
5.8 23.8 4.2
5.8 23.8 4.2
5.8 23.7 4.2
5.9 23.7 4.2
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
1.9 -7.2
1.9 -4.9
1.9 -3.8
1.9 0.1
1.9 1.1
1.9 0.4
1.9 -0.1
1.9 -1.2
1.9 -1
1.9 0.2
1.9 1.3
1.9 1
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
12.9 4.8
13 4.1
13.1 3.1
13.1 2.6
13.2 2.1
13.2 1.7
13.2 1.3
13.3 1.2
13.3 0.9
13.3 0.7
13.3 0.6
13.3 0.4
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
22.8 1.7
23.1 3.1
23.3 5.1
23.6 4.4
23.9 4.9
24.1 4.7
24.3 4.4
24.6 4.3
24.8 3.9
25 3.5
25.1 3.3
25.1 2
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
28.7 -1.1
28.9 -2.1
28.9 0.7
29 1.3
29 1
29.1 0.7
29.1 0.6
29.2 0.6
29.2 0.6
29.3 0.7
29.3 0.8
29.4 1
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
24.4 8.3
24.6 6.6
24.9 4.9
25 3.7
25.1 3
25.2 2.4
25.3 1.8
25.3 1.3
25.4 1.1
25.5 0.9
25.5 0.9
25.6 1.1
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
6 -0.3
6 1.1
6 1.9
6 1.6
6 1.4
6 1
6 0.5
6 0.3
6 0.1
6 -0.2
6 -0.5
6 -0.5
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
6.6 -0.1
6.6 -1.5
6.5 -2.1
6.4 -3.7
6.3 -4.7
6.2 -5.5
6.2 -5.2
6.2 -3.5
6.1 -2.8
6.1 -2.4
6 -2.3
5.8 -5.8
22 2.6
22 0.2
22 0.3
22 0.3
22 0.2
22 0
22 0
22 0.1
22.1 0.3
22.1 0.6
22.2 0.7
22.2 0.7
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
492.7 1.5
494.2 1.4
495.1 1.2
496.1 1
496.9 0.8
497.7 0.7
498.5 0.7
499.3 0.7
499.9 0.6
500.5 0.6
501.2 0.5
501.9 0.5
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
222.6 3.3
222.8 2.8
222.8 1.9
223 0.8
223.3 0.3
223.6 0.4
224 0.5
224.3 0.6
224.7 0.6
225.2 0.7
225.7 0.8
226.2 0.9
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
118
4
3.9
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.4
2766 2508 257
2708 2384 324
2666 2296 370
2632 2236 395
2577 2157 420
2452 2073 379
2344 1952 393
2237 1828 409
2271 1830 441
2264 1836 428
2272 1832 440
2287 1840 447
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
T allahassee
PROFILES
OUTLOOK SUMMARIES
The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla Counties. It is located between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State University and Florida A&M University.
The Tallahassee Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low growth in most of the economic indicators relative to other metro areas forecasted in the state. The area should see personal income growth averaging 6.5 percent each year, the third highest of the studied MSAs. Real per capita income levels should average $38,300. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 4.6 percent, and the average annual wage level will be $49,700. Population growth will average 1.3 percent, and the Gross Metro Product will average at a level of 14,614.19 million dollars. Employment growth is expected to average 1.6 percent each year. The unemployment rate will average 3.8 percent. The Professional and Business Services sector will be the fastest growing sector in Tallahassee, averaging 4.6 percent annually. The Construction and Mining follows with an average growth rate of 3.6 percent. The Financial sector follows with an average growth rate of 1.9 percent. No sectors are expected to decline.
QUICK FACTS:
• Metro population estimate of 373,255 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Gadsden County population estimate of 46,194 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).
• Jefferson County population estimate of 14,194 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Leon County population estimate of 281,845 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).
• Wakulla County population estimate of 31,022 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 191,980 in May 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database).
• An unemployment rate of 3.7% as of May 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 7,180 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • State of Florida – 24,599 • Florida State University – 6,119 • Leon County Schools – 4,550 • Tallahassee Memorial HealthCare, Inc. – 3,190 • City of Tallahassee – 2,736 • Publix Supermarket – 2,102 • Florida A&M University – 1,923 • Leon County – 1,919 • Walmart Stores Inc. – 1,300 • Tallahassee Community College – 1,144
Source: Economic Development Council of Tallahassee, 2012
METRO NEWS SUMMARIES City to offer solar subscriptions to utility customers • Construction on the $33.2 millon 20-megawatt solar farm south of Tallahassee International Airport is slated to be completed four months after its start date in early May. • The city has created a participation plan that would allow their customers to “subscribe for solar power without having to spend thousands of dollars installing panels on their roof.”
• Whether they rent or own their homes, customers can sign up for 25, 50, or 100 percent of their power to come from the solar farm. Open enrollment for this program will run from June 1 to December 31.
Source: Tallahassee Democrat, April 7, 2017
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
119
T allahassee
City approves Frenchtown land sale to housing developer
• Despite many Frenchtown residents’ objections, Tallahassee commissioners unanimously approved the sale of a .87-acre lot on Macomb Street to Landmark Properties for $485,000. This is the final piece of land needed to build a fivestory $50-$70 million student housing complex on a 5-acre lot across from the Renaissance Center. • According to an FSU economic impact statement, this project will create over 800 job opportunities and a $106 million impact on goods and services.
• Ben Pingree, director of the Department of Planning, Land, Management and Community Enhancement, said that the project “will also create at least $1 million in property tax revenue, half of which will go back into future projects for the Greater Frenchtown/Southside Community Redevelopment Agency.”
Source: Tallahassee Democrat, April 26, 2017
Westminster breaks ground on apartment homes
• Westminster Oaks has begun construction on “the largest single project in [its] 35-year history.” This project includes a $14 million expansion that will add 40 apartments and a $9 million fourstory, 375-space parking garage to Canopy Oaks. • This expansion comes after Canopy Oaks apartments sold out within six weeks. With its offerings of spacious one- to three-bedroom units and a swimming pool, tennis court, and fitness center, there are over 500 people on the waitlist for this complex. • Canopy Oaks is set to be completed by fall 2018.
Source: Tallahassee Democrat, May 2, 2017
120
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
Bethel, partners granted time on Frenchtown development proposal
• The Frenchtown Redevelopment Partners has been given six months to develop a mixed-use development along a high-profile location: the 400 block of West Tennessee Street.
• The project totals 310,000 square feet and is proposed to include four stories of office space, a grocery store, 20 units of townhouses, and four stories of apartments/condos. • This proposal is not complete until the Community Redevelopment Agency approves the overall concept and either sells or donates its CRA-owned property for the project.
Source: Tallahassee Democrat, May 25, 2017
FSU researchers receive $2.8M for origin of personality traits impacting longevity study
• Assistant Professor Angelina Sutin from Florida State University’s College of Medicine was granted $2.8 million from the National Institutes of Health to research “how our personality forms relative to what we know about its consequences on health across the lifespan.” • Sutin and her team will be conducting a fiveyear study to identify prenatal and childhood neighborhood risk factors that contribute to the development of personality traits that affect healthy aging.
• She hopes to achieve a better understanding of how conscientiousness and neuroticism emerge in humans, which could help lead to the discovery of new methods of “mitigating unwanted behaviors linked to personality.”
Source: Tallahassee Democrat, June 2, 2017
T allahassee Tallahassee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0
0.5
Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate (percent)
12.0%
1
1.5
2.5
3
Tallahassee Real Gross Metro Product 26000.0
(Millions 2000 $)
24000.0
10.0%
22000.0
8.0%
20000.0
6.0%
18000.0 16000.0
4.0% 2.0%
2
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 FL Unemployment Rate Tallahassee Unemployment Rate
14000.0 12000.0
Tallahassee Real Personal Income
Tallahassee Payroll Employment 230.0 220.0 210.0 200.0 190.0 180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0
(Thousands)
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Gross Metro Product
8.0%
(percent change year ago)
6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Tallahassee Payroll Employment
-6.0%
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Personal Income
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
121
T allahassee
Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL
June 2017
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
12.1 -1.5 6.8 5.3
12.7 5 6.8 5.9
13.5 6 6.8 6.7
13.3 -1.5 6.8 6.4
13 -1.7 6.9 6.1
13.7 5.3 7.2 6.5
14.3 3.9 7.5 6.8
14.9 4.7 7.9 7
15.9 6.8 8.6 7.3
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
12.1 -0.6
12.6 4.2
13 3.2
12.6 -3.2
12.2 -3
12.7 3.7
13.1 3.6
13.6 3.5
14.3 5.1
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
33.1 33.2
34.4 34.2
36.2 35.1
35.4 33.7
34.9 32.8
36.5 33.8
37.7 34.8
39.3 35.8
41.8 37.5
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
39.3 0.2
39.8 1.3
40.1 0.9
40.9 1.8
41.1 0.5
41.9 1.9
43.1 3
44.5 3.2
47.5 6.7
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
171.1 -2.8
169.2 -1.1
168 -0.7
166.2 -1
167.3 0.7
171.5 2.5
172.7 0.7
177.5 2.8
181.1 2.1
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
3.8 -9.5
3.7 -4.1
3.3 -11.2
3.1 -3.9
3.1 -2.3
2.9 -4.4
3.1 4.2
3.1 2.6
3.1 -2.9
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
167.2 -2.6
165.5 -1.1
164.7 -0.5
163.1 -1
164.3 0.7
168.5 2.6
169.6 0.6
174.4 2.8
178.1 2.1
7 -18
6.4 -9.1
6.1 -4.5
5.9 -4
6.2 5.4
6.3 1.7
6.7 7
7.5 10.6
7.6 1.8
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
22.4 -6.7
22.2 -0.9
22.3 0.7
22.2 -0.6
22.7 2.5
23.7 4
24.2 2.2
24.5 1.1
25.1 2.5
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
3.4 17.4 1.6
3.3 17.3 1.6
3.3 17.5 1.6
3.2 17.4 1.6
3.2 17.8 1.7
3.4 18.5 1.8
3.6 18.7 1.9
3.7 18.7 2.1
3.8 19.4 2.1
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
3.4 -6
3.1 -9.1
3.2 3.6
3.3 3.6
3.4 3.8
3.9 12.8
3.5 -10.2
3.2 -8.3
2.9 -9.1
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
7.5 -5.8
7.4 -1.1
7.5 0.9
7.2 -4
7.3 1.5
7.1 -2.7
7 -1
7.5 6.6
7.6 1.7
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
18.4 -3.6
18.2 -1.6
18.4 1.4
18.2 -1.1
18.5 1.6
19 2.7
19 -0.2
20.3 7.3
21.1 3.7
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
19.5 1.4
19.6 0.4
19.9 1.4
19.7 -0.6
19.7 -0.3
20.6 4.8
21.1 2.1
21.9 3.8
22.3 2
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
16.4 -1.7
16.2 -1.3
16.2 0
16.8 3.5
17.2 2.7
17.9 3.8
18.7 4.6
19.6 4.9
20.5 4.3
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
9.7 3.3
9.5 -2.2
8.9 -5.7
9.2 3.1
8.8 -3.9
9 2.2
8.8 -2.2
9.4 6.8
10.2 8.2
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
2 1.2
2.1 5
1.9 -9.1
1.9 -0.5
2 3.5
1.9 -2.5
1.9 0.8
2 4.1
2.1 2.9
60.9 -0.4
60.9 0
60.3 -1.1
58.7 -2.5
58.4 -0.6
59.2 1.3
58.7 -0.9
58.5 -0.3
58.8 0.5
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
365.2 1
369.2 1.1
371.8 0.7
374.7 0.8
373.8 -0.2
375.9 0.5
378 0.6
379.8 0.5
381.3 0.4
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
191.2 0.4
190.8 -0.2
190 -0.4
187.9 -1.1
186.7 -0.6
188.5 1
185 -1.9
187.8 1.5
193.5 3.1
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
122
Unemployment Rate (%)
7.4
8.4
8.3
7.4
6.4
5.8
5.2
4.7
4.1
Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
828 613 215
663 606 57
786 567 219
994 496 498
1183 611 572
1187 635 552
972 739 233
1051 804 247
1414 1018 395
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
T allahassee
Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL
June 2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
16.8 5.7 9.2 7.7
17.8 5.7 9.7 8.1
18.8 5.3 10.2 8.6
19.7 5.3 10.8 9
20.8 5.1 11.3 9.4
21.8 5 11.9 9.9
22.9 5 12.5 10.4
23.9 4.6 13.1 10.8
25 4.4 13.7 11.3
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
14.9 4.1
15.4 3.7
15.9 3.1
16.4 3
16.9 2.8
17.3 2.7
17.8 2.7
18.2 2.3
18.6 2.1
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
43.8 38.7
45.8 39.7
47.8 40.6
49.9 41.4
52 42.2
54.1 43
56.3 43.7
58.5 44.4
60.5 45
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
49.7 4.6
51.8 4.2
53.9 4.1
56.3 4.5
58.8 4.5
61.4 4.4
64 4.3
66.5 3.9
69.1 3.8
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
184 1.6
186.6 1.4
188.7 1.1
190.4 0.9
192.3 1
193.9 0.8
195.1 0.6
196.4 0.7
197.7 0.6
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
3.1 1.2
3.1 1.5
3.2 1.5
3.2 0.9
3.2 0.4
3.2 0.2
3.2 0.3
3.3 0.4
3.3 0.7
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
180.9 1.6
183.5 1.4
185.5 1.1
187.2 0.9
189.1 1
190.7 0.9
191.8 0.6
193.1 0.7
194.4 0.6
8 5.5
8.4 4.4
8.6 2.3
8.8 2.5
9 2.7
9.2 2.2
9.4 1.7
9.5 1.4
9.6 0.7
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
25.1 0.1
25.2 0.3
25.2 0.1
25.2 0.1
25.2 0
25.2 -0.1
25.1 -0.3
25.2 0.1
25.2 0
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
3.9 19.5 2.1
3.9 19.6 2.1
4 19.7 2.2
4 19.7 2.2
4 19.6 2.2
4.1 19.6 2.2
4.1 19.5 2.2
4.1 19.5 2.2
4.1 19.5 2.2
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
2.9 1.2
3 0.7
3 1.2
3 0.8
3 0.9
3.1 1.3
3.1 1.1
3.1 0.7
3.2 0.7
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
7.7 1.8
7.8 1.3
7.9 0.7
7.9 0.8
8 0.9
8.1 0.8
8.1 0.7
8.2 0.6
8.2 0.6
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
22.2 5.1
23.1 4.4
23.6 2
24.2 2.5
25 3.3
25.8 3.1
26.3 2
26.9 2.3
27.6 2.7
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
22.6 1.3
22.9 1.5
23.4 1.9
23.7 1.3
23.9 1
24.2 1.2
24.5 1.2
24.8 1.4
25.2 1.5
21 2.8
21.3 1.2
21.6 1.3
21.8 1.1
21.9 0.5
21.9 -0.1
21.8 -0.2
21.8 -0.4
21.7 -0.4
10.4 2.1
10.5 0.9
10.6 0.6
10.7 0.7
10.7 0.2
10.7 -0.2
10.7 -0.2
10.7 0.3
10.7 0.1
2 -4
2 -1.8
2.1 5.3
1.9 -5.9
1.9 -0.1
1.9 0
1.9 0.3
1.9 0.3
1.9 0.1
58.9 0.1
59.3 0.8
59.7 0.7
60 0.5
60.3 0.5
60.7 0.6
60.9 0.3
61.1 0.3
61.1 0.1
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
384.4 0.8
388.5 1.1
392.3 1
395.9 0.9
399.3 0.9
402.8 0.9
406.2 0.8
409.5 0.8
412.8 0.8
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
195.4 1
197.5 1
199.8 1.2
201.7 1
203.6 0.9
205.5 1
206.8 0.7
207.5 0.3
208.3 0.4
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
3.5
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.5
3.7
3.8
3.9
4
1983 1193 790
2184 1194 991
2265 1211 1054
2373 1264 1109
2429 1289 1140
2479 1314 1166
2524 1351 1172
2470 1297 1174
2415 1228 1187
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
123
T allahassee
Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL
June 2017
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
26.1 4.3 14.3 11.8
27.3 4.6 15 12.3
28.7 5.3 15.8 13
30.2 5.2 16.6 13.6
31.8 5.2 17.5 14.3
33.4 5.2 18.4 15
35.1 5 19.4 15.7
36.9 5.1 20.3 16.6
38.7 5 21.3 17.4
40.6 5 22.4 18.3
19 2.2
19.5 2.6
20.1 3.3
20.7 3.1
21.4 3.1
22.1 3.1
22.7 2.9
23.4 3
24.1 3
24.8 2.9
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
62.7 45.6
65.1 46.4
68 47.6
71 48.7
74.1 49.9
77.5 51.1
80.8 52.3
84.4 53.5
88.1 54.8
92 56.1
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
71.7 3.8
74.6 4.1
78 4.5
81.5 4.5
85.1 4.4
88.8 4.4
92.7 4.3
96.7 4.4
100.9 4.3
105.3 4.3
Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
198.7 0.5
199.8 0.6
201.3 0.7
202.9 0.8
204.8 0.9
206.7 0.9
208.1 0.7
209.3 0.6
210.6 0.6
211.9 0.6
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
3.3 0.4
3.3 -0.4
3.3 -0.3
3.3 -0.2
3.2 -0.3
3.2 -0.5
3.2 -0.6
3.2 -0.3
3.2 -0.1
3.2 0
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
195.4 0.5
196.6 0.6
198.1 0.8
199.6 0.8
201.5 1
203.5 1
204.9 0.7
206.1 0.6
207.4 0.6
208.7 0.6
9.6 0.3
9.6 -0.2
9.7 0.9
9.8 1.7
10.1 2.5
10.2 1.7
10.4 1.5
10.6 1.7
10.7 1.5
10.9 1.5
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
25.2 0.1
25.2 0.2
25.2 0
25.2 0
25.3 0.4
25.4 0.2
25.4 0.2
25.4 0
25.5 0.2
25.5 0.1
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
4.1 19.5 2.2
4.1 19.5 2.2
4 19.6 2.3
4 19.6 2.3
4 19.8 2.3
4 19.9 2.3
4 20 2.3
4 20 2.3
4 20.2 2.3
4 20.3 2.2
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
3.2 0.7
3.2 1.1
3.3 1.5
3.3 1.4
3.3 1.2
3.4 1.3
3.4 1.4
3.5 1.6
3.5 1.8
3.6 1.7
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
8.3 0.5
8.3 0.3
8.3 0.3
8.4 0.6
8.4 0.8
8.5 0.6
8.5 0.4
8.6 0.4
8.6 0.4
8.6 0.4
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
28.1 1.7
28.7 2
29.3 2.3
29.8 1.5
30.5 2.3
31.2 2.5
31.6 1.4
32 1
32.3 1.1
32.8 1.4
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
25.6 1.5
25.9 1.3
26.2 1.1
26.5 1.1
26.8 1.2
27.2 1.4
27.5 1.1
27.7 0.7
27.8 0.6
28 0.5
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
21.6 -0.1
21.7 0.2
21.7 0.2
21.8 0.2
21.9 0.7
22.1 0.6
22.2 0.6
22.3 0.4
22.4 0.7
22.6 0.6
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
10.7 -0.2
10.7 -0.2
10.7 0.2
10.8 0.7
10.8 0.7
10.9 0.7
11 0.8
11.1 0.7
11.1 0.7
11.2 0.7
1.9 0.1
2 1.8
2 2.6
2.2 8.8
2.2 -2
2.2 2.5
2.3 2.4
2.3 2.4
2.4 2.5
2.5 2.4
61.2 0.2
61.4 0.2
61.6 0.4
61.9 0.5
62.2 0.4
62.4 0.4
62.6 0.3
62.8 0.3
63 0.3
63.1 0.3
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
416 0.8
419.3 0.8
422.5 0.8
425.5 0.7
428.5 0.7
431.4 0.7
434.2 0.6
436.9 0.6
439.4 0.6
442 0.6
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
209.2 0.4
210.7 0.7
212.5 0.9
214.4 0.9
216.2 0.8
217.9 0.8
219.7 0.8
221.3 0.7
223.1 0.8
224.8 0.8
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
124
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
4.2
4.3
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.1
2380 1194 1185
2342 1160 1182
2385 1186 1200
2408 1177 1231
2467 1215 1252
2400 1129 1271
2450 1160 1290
2534 1220 1314
2534 1199 1335
2552 1225 1327
T allahassee
Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL
June 2017
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
42.6 4.8 23.4 19.2
44.7 5 24.6 20.1
47 5.1 25.8 21.2
49.3 5 27.1 22.3
51.8 4.9 28.4 23.4
54.3 4.8 29.8 24.5
56.9 4.8 31.2 25.6
59.7 5 32.8 26.9
62.7 5 34.5 28.2
65.9 5.1 36.3 29.6
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
25.5 2.8
26.2 2.9
27 3
27.8 2.9
28.6 2.9
29.4 2.7
30.2 2.7
31 2.9
31.9 2.9
32.9 3
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
95.8 57.3
100 58.6
104.6 60
109.2 61.5
114 62.9
118.9 64.3
123.9 65.7
129.4 67.2
135.2 68.8
141.2 70.5
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
109.7 4.2
114.5 4.3
119.5 4.4
124.5 4.2
129.7 4.2
135.1 4.2
140.8 4.2
146.9 4.3
153.4 4.4
160.3 4.5
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
213 0.5
214.2 0.5
215.5 0.6
216.9 0.7
218.5 0.7
219.8 0.6
221.3 0.7
222.8 0.7
224.3 0.7
225.9 0.7
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
3.2 -0.1
3.2 -0.1
3.2 -0.1
3.2 -0.2
3.2 -0.1
3.2 -0.3
3.2 -0.2
3.2 -0.3
3.1 -0.5
3.1 -0.9
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
209.8 0.5
211 0.5
212.3 0.6
213.7 0.7
215.3 0.7
216.7 0.6
218.1 0.7
219.6 0.7
221.2 0.7
222.8 0.7
11 1.2
11.1 1
11.3 1.2
11.4 1
11.5 1.4
11.6 1.1
11.7 0.9
11.9 1.5
12.1 1.4
12.2 1.3
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
25.5 0.1
25.6 0.1
25.6 0.1
25.6 0
25.6 0.2
25.6 -0.1
25.6 0.2
25.7 0.1
25.7 0.1
25.7 0.2
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
3.9 20.4 2.2
3.9 20.5 2.2
3.9 20.6 2.2
3.9 20.7 2.2
3.9 20.8 2.2
3.9 20.9 2.2
3.9 21 2.1
4 21 2.1
4 21.1 2.1
4.1 21.1 2.1
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
3.7 1.3
3.7 1.2
3.7 1
3.8 1
3.8 1.4
3.9 1.7
3.9 1.4
4 1.2
4 0.7
4 0.7
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
8.6 0.2
8.7 0.3
8.7 0.2
8.7 0.3
8.8 0.4
8.8 0.3
8.8 0.3
8.8 0.3
8.9 0.3
8.9 0.4
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
33.1 1.1
33.5 1
33.9 1.2
34.4 1.5
35 1.8
35.6 1.7
36.3 2
37.1 2.2
38 2.3
38.8 2.2
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
28.1 0.4
28.3 0.7
28.5 0.7
28.7 0.9
29 1
29.2 0.9
29.5 0.7
29.7 0.7
29.9 0.8
30.2 0.9
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
22.7 0.6
22.8 0.5
23 0.7
23.1 0.5
23.2 0.6
23.3 0.3
23.4 0.5
23.4 0.1
23.4 0.1
23.4 0
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
11.3 0.4
11.3 0.5
11.4 0.6
11.4 0.5
11.5 0.6
11.6 0.4
11.6 0.2
11.6 0.3
11.7 0.4
11.7 0.5
2.5 2.3
2.6 2.2
2.6 2.1
2.8 5.8
2.7 -1.5
2.8 2.2
2.8 1.6
2.9 2.1
2.9 2
3 2
63.3 0.3
63.5 0.3
63.7 0.3
63.9 0.3
64.2 0.4
64.3 0.2
64.4 0.2
64.5 0.2
64.6 0.1
64.7 0.1
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
444.5 0.6
447 0.6
449.4 0.5
451.8 0.5
454 0.5
456.4 0.5
458.9 0.5
461.3 0.5
463.9 0.6
466.5 0.6
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
226.4 0.7
227.9 0.7
229.5 0.7
231.2 0.8
232.9 0.7
234.4 0.6
235.9 0.7
237.5 0.7
239.3 0.8
241.3 0.8
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.3
4.2
4.3
4.2
2507 1202 1305
2478 1181 1297
2500 1201 1299
2476 1173 1303
2458 1177 1281
2452 1183 1269
2473 1212 1261
2515 1259 1256
2519 1257 1262
2504 1237 1267
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
125
T allahassee
Quarterly Outlook for Tallahassee, FL
June 2017
2017Q2
2017Q3
2017Q4
2018Q1
2018Q2
2018Q3
2018Q4
2019Q1
2019Q2
2019Q3
2019Q4
2020Q1
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
15.9 7.3 8.6 7.3
16.1 6.6 8.7 7.3
16.3 6.4 8.8 7.4
16.5 6.4 9 7.5
16.7 5.3 9.1 7.6
16.9 5.4 9.2 7.7
17.2 5.6 9.4 7.8
17.4 5.7 9.5 7.9
17.7 5.8 9.6 8.1
17.9 5.8 9.8 8.2
18.1 5.6 9.9 8.3
18.4 5.4 10 8.4
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
14.3 5.6
14.4 4.9
14.5 4.9
14.7 4.9
14.8 3.7
14.9 3.7
15.1 3.9
15.2 3.8
15.4 3.8
15.5 3.8
15.6 3.4
15.7 3.2
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
41.7 37.5
42.1 37.8
42.6 38
43.1 38.4
43.5 38.6
44 38.8
44.5 39.1
45.1 39.4
45.6 39.6
46.1 39.9
46.5 40
47 40.3
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
47.5 7.4
47.9 6.3
48.3 6.5
48.9 5.6
49.4 4
49.9 4.3
50.5 4.5
51 4.3
51.5 4.3
52 4.1
52.5 4
53 4
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
180.8 2.5
181.7 1.8
182.3 1.1
183 1.8
183.7 1.6
184.3 1.4
184.8 1.4
185.7 1.5
186.3 1.5
186.9 1.4
187.5 1.4
188 1.2
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
3.1 -3.9
3.1 -2
3.1 -1.9
3.1 1
3.1 1.3
3.1 1.2
3.1 1.4
3.1 1.3
3.1 1.3
3.1 1.6
3.2 1.8
3.2 1.7
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
177.8 2.6
178.6 1.9
179.3 1.1
179.9 1.8
180.6 1.6
181.2 1.4
181.7 1.4
182.6 1.5
183.2 1.5
183.8 1.4
184.3 1.4
184.8 1.2
7.5 2.2
7.6 0.4
7.7 1.8
7.8 4.9
7.9 5.4
8.1 6.2
8.2 5.7
8.3 5.7
8.3 4.9
8.4 3.9
8.4 3.3
8.5 2.5
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
25.1 2.5
25.1 2
25.1 1.9
25.1 0.2
25.1 0.1
25.1 0
25.1 0.1
25.2 0.4
25.2 0.4
25.2 0.3
25.2 0.2
25.2 0.1
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
3.8 19.3 2
3.8 19.4 2.1
3.8 19.4 2.1
3.9 19.5 2.1
3.9 19.5 2.1
3.9 19.5 2.1
3.9 19.5 2.1
3.9 19.6 2.1
3.9 19.6 2.1
3.9 19.7 2.1
3.9 19.6 2.1
4 19.7 2.1
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
2.9 -10.3
2.9 -8.4
2.9 -7
2.9 1
3 1.9
2.9 1.2
2.9 0.8
2.9 -0.3
3 -0.1
3 1.1
3 2.1
3 1.8
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
7.6 2.7
7.6 1.5
7.7 0.4
7.7 2.1
7.7 1.9
7.7 1.7
7.8 1.5
7.8 1.7
7.8 1.4
7.8 1.1
7.8 1
7.9 0.8
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
21 4.8
21.2 3.5
21.4 1.9
21.8 5
22.1 5.3
22.3 5.2
22.5 5
22.8 5
23.1 4.5
23.3 4.2
23.4 3.9
23.4 2.6
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
22.3 2.7
22.4 1.5
22.4 1.1
22.5 1.6
22.6 1.2
22.6 1.1
22.7 1.3
22.8 1.4
22.9 1.4
23 1.4
23.1 1.6
23.2 1.7
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
20.4 4
20.6 4.7
20.8 4.5
20.9 4.2
21 3
21.1 2.2
21.2 1.7
21.2 1.3
21.2 1.2
21.3 1.1
21.4 1.1
21.5 1.1
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
10.2 11.3
10.3 7.7
10.3 2.9
10.4 2.6
10.4 2.3
10.5 2
10.5 1.6
10.5 1.4
10.5 1.1
10.6 0.8
10.6 0.5
10.6 0.5
2.1 6.4
2.1 2
2 -2.5
2 -3
2 -4
2 -4.7
2 -4.2
1.9 -3.6
2 -2.2
2 -1
2 -0.2
2 0.2
58.8 0.7
58.8 0.2
58.8 -0.4
58.8 0.2
58.8 0.1
58.8 0.1
58.9 0.2
59.1 0.4
59.2 0.7
59.4 0.9
59.5 1
59.7 1
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
381 0.4
381.5 0.4
382.1 0.4
382.9 0.6
383.9 0.8
385 0.9
386 1
387 1.1
388 1.1
389 1.1
390 1
391 1
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
193.6 3.6
194 3
194.3 2.2
194.7 1.3
195.1 0.8
195.6 0.8
196.1 1
196.6 1
197.1 1
197.7 1.1
198.3 1.1
198.9 1.2
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
126
4
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.2
3.2
1341 983 358
1517 1037 480
1682 1088 593
1829 1138 691
1981 1196 785
2015 1215 800
2107 1226 882
2159 1208 951
2197 1193 1004
2182 1186 996
2198 1188 1010
2222 1197 1025
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
T ampa – S t . P etersburg – C learwater
PROFILES
OUTLOOK SUMMARIES
The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is comprised of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas counties. Located centrally on the west coast of Florida, this region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge Docks, Ybor City, Bush Gardens, the University of South Florida and the University of Tampa. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Tampa Bay Rays call this region home.
The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income growth is expected to be 5.7 percent on average each year, and the real per capita income level will average $42,800. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.9 percent, the third highest of the studied MSAs. The average annual wage level will be $57,600. Population growth will average 1.4 percent, and Tampa is forecasted to have the second highest average Gross Metro Product in the studied areas, averaging a level of 132,899.50 million dollars. Employment growth is expected to average 2.4 percent annually. The unemployment rate is expected to average 3.5 percent. The fastest growing sector in the Tampa area will be the Construction and Mining sector with a high average annual growth rate of 7.0 percent. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector with an average annual growth rate of 4.6 percent, and the Financial and Leisure sectors at 2.4 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively. The Federal Government sector is the only sector expected to see a decline, averaging -0.1 percent.
QUICK FACTS:
• Metro population estimate of 2,870,569 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Hernando County population estimate of 174,441 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Hillsborough County population estimate of 1,291,578 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Pasco County population estimate of 475,502 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Pinellas County population estimate of 929,048 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 1,522,960 in May 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • Unemployment rate of 43.8% as of May 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 58,039 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).
TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:
• • • • • • • • • •
Hillsborough County School board – 29,603 MacDill Air Force Base – 15,485 Pinellas County School District – 13,905 Hillsborough County Government – 9,328 Pasco County School District – 9,289 Verizon Communications, Inc. – 9,065 University of South Florida – 8,353 Tampa International Airport – 8,060 Tampa General Hospital – 6,900 Publix Food Centers – 5,823
Sources: Pasco County School District, Pinellas County School District, 2011 Comprehensive Annual Financial Report: Tampa Port Authority
METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Tampa Bay still a leader in home flipping but profits are dropping • Although the house-flipping market in Tampa Bay has cooled somewhat, home flippers are still finding success in most Tampa-area ZIP codes. • The dip in flips has been widely attributed to rising home prices even for fixer-uppers. This, in turn, has prompted a rise in financing for home flippers as opposed to buying homes with cash.
• The area ZIP code that saw the highest gross profit was 33704 in St. Petersburg, where home flippers bought for a median price of $80,650 and sold for a median price of $279,950.
Source: Tampa Bay Times, June 8, 2017
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
127
T ampa – S t . P etersburg – C learwater
Developers buoyed by sales at Tampa’s new Virage condo tower • A proposed 24-story condo tower in Tampa has seen robust sales, as it has almost neared the threshold it needs before it can begin construction.
• Roughly $60 million worth of units are under contract, including a penthouse that is priced at just under $5 million. If the deal goes through, it will be Tampa’s most expensive condominium sold in a decade.
• Developers do worry that their initial success in sales will give the impression that they don’t have many units left to offer. In fact, there are a large variety of units still unsold, including a second penthouse.
Source: Tampa Bay Times, June 7, 2017
St. Pete Economic Development Corporation lures marketing firm MXTR to town • Although it is not yet clear what incentives were used, it appears St. Petersburg Economic Development Corporation has brought its first major business to town as digital marketing company MXTR Automation announced that it will open an office in downtown St. Pete this year.
• The company plans to fill 20 high-wage creative positions in the next 18 months, which will make up the Pennsylvania company’s second location. • Mickey Locey, president of MXTR, explained that St. Petersburg’s talent pool, downtown lifestyle, and business-friendly tax environment were all factors in the decision.
Source: Tampa Bay Times, May 24, 2017
American Arts and Crafts Museum in St. Petersburg ready to build
• Downtown St. Petersburg is set to see the construction of a new $70 million Museum of the American Arts and Crafts Movement. Construction was expected to begin in January, but permit delays pushed back the start date.
128
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
• The project, designed by Tampa architect Alberto Alfonso, is expected to take over two years to build, but will house a 137,000-square-foot collection of furniture, pottery, tile, metalwork, lighting, photography, and other decorative arts. • The museum’s founders have already sunk $16 million into the project in property acquisitions and other expenses.
Source: Tampa Bay Times, May 11, 2017
Energy company plans solar farm in northeast Pasco
• Spain-based alternative energy company ESA Renewables has proposed to build and operate a 90-acre solar panel farm in rural Pasco County. • The proposed site has previously been hotly contested, as local residents recently prevented the land from being developed for housing by pushing for rural protections. • However, some of those same residents have come out in support of the solar farm, which could potentially power some 2,400 homes.
Source: Tampa Bay Times, April 27, 2017
Tampa International Airport details $543 million second phase of massive construction plan
• The newest phase of Tampa International Airport’s $2.3 billion renovation and expansion will feature a gas station, a hotel, retail and office space, and a widening of the main road to the airport. • Site preparation is scheduled for mid-2018 and should be completed by 2023. One of the biggest challenges will be to keep traffic disruption to a minimum, as the airport is still seeing growing passenger numbers.
• The first phase of the expansion, which will be completed next year, includes a massive rental car facility and a new people mover train.
Source: Tampa Bay Times, April 18, 2017
T ampa – S t . P etersburg – C learwater Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0
0.2
0.4
Florida & Tampa Unemployment Rate (percent)
12.0%
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
Tampa Real Gross Metro Product 300000.0
(Millions 2000 $)
250000.0
10.0%
200000.0
8.0%
150000.0
6.0% 4.0% 2.0%
0.6
100000.0 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 FL Unemployment Rate Tampa Unemployment Rate
50000.0
Tampa Real Personal Income
Tampa Payroll Employment 2000.0
(Thousands)
1800.0
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Gross Metro Product
10.0%
(percent change year ago)
5.0%
1600.0
0.0%
1400.0 -5.0%
1200.0 1000.0
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Tampa Payroll Employment
-10.0%
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Real Personal Income
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
129
T ampa – S t . P etersburg – C learwater
Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
June 2017
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
101.5 -2.5 51.1 50.4
107.6 6.1 51.3 56.3
115.8 7.6 53 62.8
113.9 -1.6 55.5 58.4
114 0.1 57.3 56.8
120.6 5.8 60.2 60.5
128 6.1 64.2 63.7
134.6 5.2 68.6 66
141.8 5.4 73.2 68.7
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
101.8 -1.6
107.1 5.2
112.2 4.8
108.5 -3.3
107.2 -1.2
111.6 4.1
118 5.7
122.8 4.1
127.3 3.7
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
36.7 36.8
38.5 38.3
40.9 39.6
40 38
39.6 37.2
41.3 38.2
43 39.6
44.3 40.4
45.8 41.1
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
45.2 1.6
45.9 1.4
46.6 1.7
47.8 2.5
48.2 0.7
49.3 2.3
50.8 3.2
52.4 3
54.2 3.4
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
1117.7 -5.9
1105.9 -1.1
1123.3 1.6
1148.9 2.3
1176.4 2.4
1208.4 2.7
1250.7 3.5
1297.2 3.7
1338.5 3.2
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
61.9 -13.4
58.2 -6.1
58.8 1.1
59.4 1.1
60 1
61.2 1.9
62.2 1.7
64.6 3.8
65.6 1.6
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
1055.8 -5.5
1047.7 -0.8
1064.5 1.6
1089.5 2.3
1116.4 2.5
1147.2 2.8
1188.5 3.6
1232.6 3.7
1272.9 3.3
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
60.2 -21.2
52.8 -12.3
52.6 -0.3
54.2 3
56.9 5
60.8 6.9
64.9 6.8
70.8 9
78.8 11.3
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
210.6 -7.4
209.4 -0.6
213.4 1.9
219 2.6
222.9 1.8
232 4.1
240 3.5
248.2 3.4
252.3 1.7
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
47.7 137.2 25.7
45.9 138.3 25.1
46.3 141.3 25.8
48.5 144 26.6
48.9 146.7 27.3
50.4 152.8 28.7
51.2 159.2 29.6
51.9 165.9 30.4
53.4 169.8 30.4
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
27.6 -9
25.7 -6.6
25.9 0.6
25.7 -0.5
26.1 1.4
25.6 -2.1
25.8 1
25.5 -1.1
26 1.8
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
93.2 -5.4
89.4 -4.1
91.6 2.5
95.5 4.3
99.7 4.3
101.7 2.1
103.9 2.1
107.2 3.1
110.3 2.9
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
170 -7.1
174.2 2.5
182.5 4.8
190.9 4.6
198.2 3.8
204.3 3.1
217.8 6.6
231.5 6.3
240.5 3.9
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
174.5 0.8
178 2
180.9 1.6
182.3 0.8
184.6 1.3
188.4 2
194.6 3.3
200.1 2.8
206 3
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
122.1 -4.7
121.4 -0.6
123 1.3
128.3 4.4
133.3 3.9
138.4 3.8
144.6 4.5
149 3
154.4 3.7
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
43.1 -8
41.9 -2.7
41.3 -1.6
41.1 -0.5
42.4 3.3
43.4 2.2
43.4 0
45.1 3.9
47.3 5
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
22.7 3.7
24 5.5
22.9 -4.6
22.6 -1.2
22.7 0.3
22.9 0.8
23.6 3.1
24.3 3.1
24.5 0.8
131.8 0.5
130.9 -0.6
130.4 -0.4
129.7 -0.6
129.6 -0.1
129.8 0.2
129.8 0
131.2 1.1
132.9 1.3
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
2767.8 0.7
2794.9 1
2829.7 1.2
2851 0.8
2878.7 1
2923.4 1.6
2979.1 1.9
3039.5 2
3095.8 1.9
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
1379.2 -0.9
1384.6 0.4
1398.3 1
1410.7 0.9
1420.9 0.7
1434.3 0.9
1439.7 0.4
1475.7 2.5
1518.4 2.9
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
130
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
11
11.1
9.9
8.2
6.9
6
5.2
4.6
4
5899 3979 1920
6360 4530 1830
6970 4514 2456
9056 5928 3129
11571 7251 4320
11686 7111 4575
14788 9754 5033
17233 11374 5859
20561 12710 7851
T ampa – S t . P etersburg – C learwater
Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
June 2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
150.3 5.9 78.2 72
159.2 6 83.2 76
167.8 5.4 88 79.8
176.6 5.3 93 83.6
185.6 5.1 98.5 87.1
194.9 5 104 90.9
204.6 4.9 109.4 95.1
214.3 4.8 115 99.3
224.1 4.6 120.9 103.2
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
132.9 4.3
138.1 3.9
142.4 3.1
146.6 3
150.7 2.8
154.7 2.7
158.8 2.6
162.7 2.5
166.5 2.3
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
47.8 42.3
50.1 43.5
52.3 44.4
54.5 45.2
56.7 46
59 46.8
61.3 47.6
63.6 48.3
65.9 48.9
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
56.3 3.9
58.7 4.2
61.1 4.1
63.8 4.4
66.5 4.4
69.4 4.3
72.2 4.1
75.1 4
78 3.9
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
1377.1 2.9
1406.3 2.1
1427.9 1.5
1447 1.3
1467.8 1.4
1487.2 1.3
1502.7 1
1519.9 1.1
1537.8 1.2
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
66.1 0.8
67 1.3
67.8 1.2
68.2 0.6
68.5 0.5
68.7 0.3
68.8 0.2
69 0.2
69.2 0.4
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
1311 3
1339.4 2.2
1360.1 1.6
1378.8 1.4
1399.3 1.5
1418.5 1.4
1433.9 1.1
1451 1.2
1468.6 1.2
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
84.8 7.6
89.5 5.6
92.5 3.3
95.7 3.5
99.1 3.5
102.1 3.1
104.7 2.6
107 2.1
108.4 1.3
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
253.9 0.6
255.1 0.5
255.6 0.2
256.1 0.2
256.4 0.1
256.4 0
256.2 -0.1
256.6 0.2
256.7 0
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
54.6 172.4 30.9
55.3 173.9 31.1
56 174.5 31.1
56.5 174.8 31.1
56.8 174.7 31.1
57 174.5 31
57.1 174.2 30.8
57.1 174.7 31
57.1 175.1 31.1
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
26.5 2
26.8 1.1
27.1 1.2
27.3 0.8
27.6 1.1
28 1.4
28.4 1.3
28.7 1
29 1.1
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
114.4 3.8
116.6 1.9
117.8 1.1
119.3 1.2
120.7 1.2
122.1 1.1
123.4 1.1
124.8 1.1
126.2 1.2
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
256.4 6.6
269.7 5.2
276.6 2.5
284.8 3
295.2 3.7
305.6 3.5
313.1 2.5
321.8 2.8
332.4 3.3
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
209.1 1.5
212 1.4
215.9 1.8
218.6 1.3
220.7 1
223.4 1.2
226.2 1.3
229.5 1.5
233 1.5
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
159.5 3.3
161.7 1.4
164.2 1.5
166.3 1.3
167.4 0.7
167.6 0.1
167.6 0
167.3 -0.2
166.9 -0.2
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
48.5 2.4
48.9 0.9
49.1 0.4
49.4 0.6
49.5 0.1
49.4 -0.2
49.3 -0.2
49.4 0.4
49.5 0.1
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
23.6 -3.6
23.2 -1.8
24.1 4.1
23 -4.8
23 0
23 0.2
23.1 0.4
23.2 0.5
23.3 0.3
134.2 1
135.8 1.2
137.3 1.1
138.4 0.8
139.6 0.9
140.9 0.9
141.9 0.7
142.7 0.6
143.2 0.4
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
3140.5 1.4
3177.6 1.2
3210.8 1
3242.5 1
3273.9 1
3305.9 1
3338.1 1
3370.4 1
3402.8 1
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
1532.6 0.9
1549.2 1.1
1565.1 1
1573.3 0.5
1581.6 0.5
1592.8 0.7
1604.2 0.7
1611.8 0.5
1621.7 0.6
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
21222 13698 7525
21225 13847 7378
22016 14063 7953
23133 14691 8442
23797 15072 8725
24347 15409 8938
24848 15850 8998
24373 15376 8997
23998 14870 9128
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
131
T ampa – S t . P etersburg – C learwater
Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
June 2017
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
234.1 4.4 126.6 107.5
245.2 4.8 133.1 112.1
258.6 5.5 140.8 117.9
272.4 5.3 148.9 123.5
287.3 5.5 157.9 129.4
302.8 5.4 167.2 135.6
318.7 5.2 176.6 142.1
335.7 5.3 186.3 149.4
353.5 5.3 196.6 156.9
372.2 5.3 207.6 164.5
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
170.4 2.3
175.1 2.8
181.1 3.5
187.1 3.3
193.4 3.4
199.9 3.3
206.2 3.2
213 3.3
219.8 3.2
226.9 3.2
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
68.1 49.6
70.7 50.5
73.9 51.8
77.2 53
80.6 54.3
84.2 55.6
87.9 56.9
91.8 58.2
95.8 59.6
100 61
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
80.9 3.8
84.3 4.2
88.2 4.6
92.2 4.6
96.5 4.6
100.8 4.5
105.4 4.5
110.2 4.6
115.1 4.5
120.3 4.5
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
1551.9 0.9
1566.2 0.9
1583.9 1.1
1602.1 1.1
1624 1.4
1646.3 1.4
1663.3 1
1678.9 0.9
1695.8 1
1714 1.1
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
69.3 0.1
68.8 -0.7
68.3 -0.6
67.9 -0.6
67.5 -0.7
66.9 -0.9
66.3 -0.9
65.8 -0.7
65.6 -0.4
65.4 -0.3
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
1482.7 1
1497.5 1
1515.6 1.2
1534.1 1.2
1556.5 1.5
1579.4 1.5
1597 1.1
1613.1 1
1630.2 1.1
1648.7 1.1
109.3 0.8
109.7 0.4
111.7 1.8
114.4 2.4
118 3.2
121 2.5
123.7 2.3
126.9 2.6
129.8 2.3
132.7 2.2
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
257 0.1
257.5 0.2
257.5 0
257.7 0
258.8 0.4
259.5 0.3
259.9 0.2
260.1 0.1
260.5 0.1
260.8 0.1
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
56.9 175.7 31.1
56.5 176.4 31
56 176.9 31
55.7 177.9 30.8
55.6 179.7 30.8
55.5 181.2 30.6
55.3 182.5 30.5
54.9 183.6 30.2
54.5 185.3 29.9
54.2 187 29.5
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
29.3 1.1
29.7 1.4
30.3 1.8
30.8 1.8
31.3 1.6
31.8 1.7
32.4 1.8
33 2
33.7 2.2
34.5 2.1
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
127.4 0.9
128.3 0.7
129.1 0.7
130.5 1
132.1 1.2
133.6 1.1
134.8 0.9
136 0.9
137.3 0.9
138.6 1
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
339.4 2.1
347.6 2.4
357.4 2.8
364.4 2
374.7 2.8
385.3 2.8
392.1 1.7
397.7 1.4
404.5 1.7
412.5 2
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
236.6 1.6
239.7 1.3
242.4 1.1
245.2 1.1
248.3 1.3
251.7 1.4
254.5 1.1
256.8 0.9
258.4 0.6
260.2 0.7
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
167.1 0.1
167.8 0.4
168.6 0.5
169.3 0.4
170.9 1
172.3 0.8
173.8 0.9
174.8 0.6
176.5 1
177.9 0.8
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
49.4 -0.2
49.3 -0.1
49.4 0.2
49.8 0.7
50.1 0.7
50.5 0.7
50.9 0.8
51.3 0.7
51.6 0.7
52 0.7
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
23.4 0.3
23.7 1.6
24.2 2.1
26.2 8.3
25.6 -2.6
26.1 2.1
26.6 2
27.1 2
27.7 2.1
28.2 2
143.7 0.4
144.2 0.3
145 0.6
145.9 0.6
146.8 0.6
147.6 0.6
148.4 0.5
149.3 0.6
150.3 0.6
151.2 0.6
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
3434.9 0.9
3466.8 0.9
3498.7 0.9
3530.5 0.9
3562.4 0.9
3594.1 0.9
3625.9 0.9
3657.7 0.9
3689.5 0.9
3721.3 0.9
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
1632.9 0.7
1648 0.9
1665.7 1.1
1683.6 1.1
1701 1
1718.2 1
1735.7 1
1752.7 1
1770.9 1
1789 1
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
132
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
3.9
4
4
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
23608 14442 9166
23220 14102 9118
23764 14538 9226
24119 14672 9447
24558 14982 9576
23796 14093 9703
24491 14662 9829
25401 15389 10012
25644 15473 10171
25807 15715 10092
T ampa – S t . P etersburg – C learwater
Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
June 2017
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
391.4 5.2 219 172.4
411.9 5.3 231 180.9
433.9 5.3 243.6 190.2
456.9 5.3 256.9 200
481.6 5.4 271.8 209.7
507.1 5.3 287.6 219.5
534 5.3 304.6 229.5
563 5.4 322.7 240.3
594.1 5.5 342.4 251.7
626.6 5.5 363.1 263.4
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
233.9 3.1
241.3 3.2
249.1 3.2
257.2 3.2
265.7 3.3
274.2 3.2
283.1 3.2
292.5 3.3
302.5 3.4
312.7 3.4
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
104.3 62.3
108.8 63.8
113.7 65.3
118.7 66.8
124.1 68.5
129.7 70.1
135.4 71.8
141.5 73.5
148.1 75.4
154.8 77.3
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
125.8 4.5
131.5 4.5
137.3 4.4
143.2 4.3
149.7 4.6
156.6 4.6
163.9 4.6
171.3 4.6
179.3 4.7
187.7 4.7
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
1729.5 0.9
1745.4 0.9
1763 1
1783 1.1
1803.7 1.2
1824.5 1.2
1847.1 1.2
1872 1.3
1897.6 1.4
1922.8 1.3
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
65.1 -0.4
64.8 -0.4
64.5 -0.5
64.2 -0.5
63.9 -0.4
63.6 -0.6
63.2 -0.6
62.8 -0.6
62.3 -0.9
61.5 -1.3
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
1664.4 1
1680.6 1
1698.6 1.1
1718.8 1.2
1739.8 1.2
1760.9 1.2
1783.8 1.3
1809.2 1.4
1835.3 1.4
1861.4 1.4
135.4 2
137.8 1.8
140.6 2.1
143.2 1.8
146.1 2.1
149 2
152.2 2.1
156.5 2.8
160.6 2.6
164.4 2.4
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
261 0.1
261.2 0.1
261.5 0.1
261.6 0.1
262.2 0.2
262.3 0
262.8 0.2
263.5 0.3
264.1 0.3
265 0.3
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
53.7 188.6 29
53.3 190.1 28.6
52.9 191.8 28.2
52.8 193.2 27.9
52.8 195 27.5
53 195.9 27.1
53.4 197.4 26.7
53.9 198.5 26.4
54.4 199.8 26
55 200.9 25.6
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
35.1 1.8
35.7 1.7
36.2 1.5
36.7 1.5
37.5 2
38.3 2.2
39 1.9
39.7 1.7
40.1 1.1
40.6 1.2
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
139.6 0.8
140.9 0.9
142.1 0.8
143.4 1
145 1.1
146.5 1.1
148 1
149.5 1
151.1 1.1
152.9 1.2
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
419.2 1.6
425.7 1.6
433.4 1.8
441.8 1.9
451.6 2.2
461.6 2.2
473 2.5
486.3 2.8
500.7 3
515 2.8
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
261.6 0.5
263.6 0.8
265.3 0.6
268 1
270.8 1.1
273.5 1
275.8 0.8
277.6 0.7
279.3 0.6
280.9 0.6
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
179.5 0.9
180.8 0.7
182.6 1
184 0.8
185.6 0.9
186.8 0.6
188.3 0.8
189.1 0.5
190.3 0.6
191.1 0.5
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
52.2 0.5
52.6 0.7
53 0.8
53.4 0.7
53.9 0.8
54.3 0.7
54.6 0.6
55 0.8
55.5 0.8
56 0.9
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
28.8 1.9
29.3 1.8
29.8 1.7
31.4 5.4
30.8 -1.8
31.4 2
31.9 1.4
32.4 1.8
33 1.7
33.6 1.7
152.1 0.6
153 0.6
154.1 0.7
155.2 0.7
156.3 0.7
157.3 0.7
158.4 0.7
159.5 0.7
160.7 0.7
161.9 0.8
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
3753.1 0.9
3784.8 0.8
3816.5 0.8
3848 0.8
3879.3 0.8
3910.6 0.8
3944.3 0.9
3978 0.9
4012.2 0.9
4046.3 0.8
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
1806.5 1
1823.5 0.9
1841 1
1860 1
1878.4 1
1896.4 1
1912.4 0.8
1927.6 0.8
1943.8 0.8
1961.2 0.9
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
4
3.9
3.9
3.9
25541 15615 9926
25344 15483 9861
25581 15701 9880
25530 15605 9926
25508 15742 9766
25520 15849 9670
25948 16324 9623
26600 16984 9616
26911 17231 9680
27174 17435 9739
Institute for Economic Competitiveness
133
T ampa – S t . P etersburg – C learwater
Quarterly Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
June 2017
2017Q2
2017Q3
2017Q4
2018Q1
2018Q2
2018Q3
2018Q4
2019Q1
2019Q2
2019Q3
2019Q4
2020Q1
Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income
140.8 5.4 72.6 68.2
142.9 5.3 73.8 69.1
144.8 5.4 74.9 69.9
147.1 6 76.4 70.8
149.1 5.9 77.6 71.5
151.3 5.9 78.9 72.4
153.6 6 80.1 73.5
156 6 81.5 74.5
158.1 6.1 82.6 75.5
160.4 6 83.9 76.5
162.4 5.7 85 77.4
164.5 5.5 86.1 78.4
Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago
126.7 3.7
128 3.6
129.4 3.9
131 4.5
132.1 4.3
133.4 4.2
134.9 4.3
136.3 4.1
137.5 4.1
138.7 4
139.7 3.6
140.8 3.3
Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)
45.6 41
46 41.3
46.5 41.5
47.1 41.9
47.6 42.1
48.1 42.4
48.7 42.7
49.3 43.1
49.8 43.3
50.4 43.6
50.9 43.8
51.4 44
Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
54 3.8
54.4 2.8
54.8 2.8
55.4 3.4
56 3.6
56.6 4.1
57.3 4.5
57.8 4.3
58.4 4.3
59 4.2
59.5 4
60.2 4
Personal Income (Billions $)
Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago
1332.5 3.2
1344.5 3.3
1354.9 3
1365.6 3.3
1373.9 3.1
1381.3 2.7
1387.6 2.4
1396.5 2.3
1403.3 2.1
1410.1 2.1
1415.3 2
1419.3 1.6
Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
65.6 1.4
65.6 1.3
65.7 0.9
65.8 0.5
66.1 0.9
66.2 0.9
66.3 1
66.6 1.1
66.8 1.1
67.1 1.3
67.3 1.5
67.5 1.4
Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago
1266.9 3.3
1278.9 3.4
1289.2 3.1
1299.7 3.4
1307.8 3.2
1315.1 2.8
1321.2 2.5
1330 2.3
1336.5 2.2
1343 2.1
1348 2
1351.8 1.6
77.9 11.6
79.3 12
81.1 9.9
82.6 7.5
84 7.9
85.6 8
87 7.2
88.2 6.7
89.1 6
90 5.2
90.8 4.4
91.4 3.7
Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago
251.9 1.7
252.7 1.3
253.4 1.5
253.4 0.8
253.7 0.7
254.1 0.6
254.4 0.4
254.9 0.6
255 0.5
255.2 0.4
255.2 0.3
255.7 0.3
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util
53.2 169.4 30.3
53.6 170.4 30.5
54.1 171 30.7
54.3 172 30.8
54.5 172.2 30.9
54.6 172.5 31
54.8 172.8 31
55 173.5 31
55.2 173.7 31
55.4 174.1 31.1
55.5 174 31.1
55.8 174.4 31.1
Information Pct Chg Year Ago
26 1.8
25.9 1.5
26 2.8
26.5 1.9
26.7 2.8
26.5 2
26.3 1.4
26.5 0.1
26.8 0.3
26.9 1.5
27 2.5
27.1 2
Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago
109.7 2.8
110.9 3.2
112.2 3.4
113.4 4.7
114.1 4
114.8 3.6
115.4 2.9
116 2.3
116.4 2
116.8 1.7
117.2 1.6
117.5 1.3
Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago
238.1 3.5
242.5 4.3
246 3.7
251.1 6.7
255.2 7.2
258.4 6.6
261 6.1
265.5 5.7
268.7 5.3
271.5 5.1
273.3 4.7
273.9 3.2
Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago
205.6 3.5
206.8 3.2
207.5 2
208.1 1.9
208.9 1.6
209.5 1.3
210 1.2
210.9 1.3
211.6 1.3
212.4 1.4
213.3 1.5
214.4 1.7
Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago
153.4 3.5
155.7 4.1
157.4 4.7
158.6 5
159.1 3.7
159.9 2.7
160.5 1.9
160.9 1.5
161.3 1.4
162.1 1.4
162.6 1.3
163.2 1.4
Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago
47.1 5.4
47.5 5
47.9 4.4
48.2 3
48.4 2.7
48.6 2.2
48.7 1.7
48.8 1.3
48.9 1
48.9 0.8
48.9 0.5
49 0.4
Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago
24.5 1.5
24.5 0.4
24.3 -1.1
24 -2.5
23.7 -3.5
23.4 -4.3
23.3 -4
23.3 -3
23.2 -1.9
23.2 -1.2
23.1 -0.9
22.8 -2
132.7 1.7
133.1 1.2
133.5 1.3
133.8 1.1
134.1 1
134.3 0.9
134.6 0.8
135 0.9
135.6 1.1
136.1 1.4
136.5 1.5
136.9 1.4
Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
3090.2 1.9
3102.6 1.8
3114 1.7
3125.3 1.6
3135.7 1.5
3145.7 1.4
3155.4 1.3
3164.5 1.3
3173.4 1.2
3182 1.2
3190.5 1.1
3198.7 1.1
Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago
1518.5 3.4
1521.2 3
1523.1 2.1
1526.7 1
1530.3 0.8
1534.5 0.9
1538.9 1
1543.2 1.1
1547 1.1
1551.3 1.1
1555.3 1.1
1559.6 1.1
Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago
State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago
Other Economic Indicators
Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily
134
3.9
3.8
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
20299 12473 7826
20807 12756 8051
21034 13040 7994
21335 13403 7932
21531 13646 7884
21016 13865 7151
21007 13877 7130
20995 13867 7128
21284 13816 7468
21222 13854 7369
21399 13851 7548
21557 13881 7676
Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017
Sean Snaith, Ph.D., is the director of the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Competitiveness and a nationally recognized economist in the field of business and economic forecasting. Snaith is the recipient of multiple awards for the accuracy of his forecasts, his research and his teaching. He has served as a consultant for local governments and multinational corporations such as Compaq, Dell and IBM. Before joining UCF’s College of Business, he held teaching positions at Pennsylvania State University, American University in Cairo, the University of North Dakota and the University of the Pacific. Snaith is frequently interviewed in international, national and regional media. He has been quoted in The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, The New York Times, The Economist and The Guardian and has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business Network, The Nightly News with Brian Williams, Al Jazeera, the BBC and CBC, China Central TV, Sky News, Nippon TV and the Business News Network, based in Toronto. Snaith is a sought-after speaker known for his engaging and humorous presentations. He has built a national reputation for his unique ability to explain complex subject matter in a digestible manner. He earned praise from one business editor for having “an uncanny knack of making economics not only understandable but interesting.” Snaith is a member of several economic organizations and national economic forecasting panels, including The Wall Street Journal’s Economic Forecasting Survey, the Associated Press’ Economy Survey, CNNMoney.com’s Survey of Leading Economists, USA Today’s Survey of Top Economists, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, Bloomberg and Reuters. Snaith holds a B.S. in Economics from Allegheny College and an M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from Pennsylvania State University.
Sean M. Snaith, PhD Director, Institute for Economic Competitiveness P 407.823.1451 E ssnaith@ucf.edu
UNIVERSIT Y OF CENTR AL FLORIDA INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS P. O . B OX 1 6 1 4 0 0 ORL ANDO, FLORIDA 32816 P H 4 0 7. 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 3 • F X 4 0 7. 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 4
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