U.S. Forecast July 2011

U.S. Forecast July 2011

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

Meet Interim Dean fOARD f. jONES For those of you familiar with this economic forecast, you probably have noticed that there is a new name and face addressing you this quarter. Allow me to introduce myself.

About University of C e n t r a l F lo r i da ( U C F ) The University of Central F lorida is

a public, multi-campus, metropolitan r e s e a r c h u n i v e r s i t y, d e d i c a t e d t o

ser ving its surrounding communities with their diverse and expanding

populations, technological corridors,

and international partners. The mission

of the university is to offer high-quality undergraduate and graduate education, student development, and continuing education; to conduct research and creative activities; and to provide

services that enhance the intellectual,

As mentioned in the last issue, Thomas Keon, our previous dean, has been named Chancellor at Purdue University Calumet. I have been appointed interim dean of the college while a national search is conducted to replace him.

I started at UCF in 1989 and have a Ph.D. in Human Resources. In addition to teaching, I have served in several administrative capacities within the college including Chair of the Management Department, Associate Dean for Graduate and External Programs, and Associate Dean of Administration and Human Resources.

g l o b a l c o m m u n i t y.

I welcome the opportunity to lead the college through this transitional period, and I plan to work closely with many of our institutes and centers such as the Institute for Economic Competitiveness. These quarterly forecasts are a fine example of the tremendous research being conducted within our business school.

About the College of B u s i n e s s A d m i n i s t r at i o n

While we have some changes coming our way – one thing that won’t change is our commitment to our students, faculty, alumni and other friends of the college. I’ll keep you posted as we progress throughout the year.

cultural, environmental, and economic

development of the metropolitan region, address national and international

issues in key areas, establish UCF as a major presence, and contribute to the

The College of Business Administration and goals in providing intellectual

Thank you for your continued support and I look forward to addressing you next quarter!

and ser vice. The college is striving

Sincerely,

a d v a n c e s t h e u n i v e r s i t y ’s m i s s i o n

leadership through research, teaching, to enhance graduate programs, while

maintaining the strong undergraduate

base. The college delivers research and

quality business education programs at the undergraduate, masters, doctoral,

and executive levels to citizens of the

state of F lorida and to select clientele n a t i o n a l l y a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y.

Foard F. Jones Interim Dean

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

Fo r eca s t fo r t h e N ati o n Forecast 2011 - 2014 July 2011 Report

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright Š 2011 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved.

Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Elaine Vogt, Administrative Assistant Alexandra Betrone-Harpst, Researcher Cecilia Chirinos, Researcher Jessica Fears, Researcher Sangitha Palaniappa, Researcher Nicholas Simons, Researcher This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitiveness’ judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.

Hi g h l i g h t s o f t h e 2 Q 2 0 1 1 U . S . F OR E C A ST In this Issue of the U.S. Forecast: • The oil price spike, earthquake and tsunami in Japan, and the resultant supply chain disruptions have caused the recovery to sputter. However, is it a soft patch or a briar patch?

• President Obama has been extolling a virtue to congress that he himself is severely lacking: fiscal austerity.

H I GHL I GHTS

• The Obama administration says that Americans have to “eat their peas,” but aren’t these the same people that told us the ARRA (the stimulus act) would be to the economy what spinach was to Popeye? I have had enough with the vegetables and I think it is time for some meatier policy. (Sorry PETA) • Oil prices have receded from their recent highs. That does not imply that cheap gasoline is right around the corner. Prices will remain elevated, as the era of cheap energy has passed us by. Further tumult in the Middle East or North Africa could easily send prices rocketing higher.

• Consumers still face a wealth problem, particularly the loss of home equity.

Home equity remains at the same level witnessed at the nadir of the financial crisis. For most consumers, their nest eggs have gone from Ostrich sized to Robin.

• The U.S. economy lost momentum in the first half of 2011. Real GDP growth should accelerate to 3.3% in the 3rd quarter and ease to 2.8% growth in the 4th quarter. 2012 should average 2.4% growth.

• The expansion of real GDP in the economy during 2011 will be 2.4% versus a year ago, and will maintain this pace in 2012 as consumers continue to struggle with lost home equity that is showing no signs of recovery. In 2013 growth will accelerate to 2.7% and then to 3.4% in 2014 as the housing sector finally joins the recovery.

• Wherefore Art Thou, Home Equity? You can deny thy father and refuse thy name, but there is no denying the housing market continues to languish.

• Payroll employment growth remains sluggish. Persistent policy uncertainty is a black cloud over the private sector and consequently firms will be slow to hire new workers.

• The fates of the housing and labor markets remain intertwined. A labor market recovery is just the tonic the housing sector needs, slowing foreclosures and growing the pool of potential buyers. It turns out that now you actually need income to qualify for a mortgage.

• Unemployment rates have ticked up in recent months and 2011 should end with unemployment still way too high at 8.8%. Unemployment rates will continue to fall very gradually in 2012 and decline to 7.2% by the end of 2014.

• Underemployment remains problematic as the labor market continues to be a scar on the economy that refuses to fade.

U . S . F o r eca s t

Anxious Index The most recent release (2nd quarter of 2011) of the Survey of Professional Forecasters by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia suggests that the 39 forecasters surveyed for the publication are less than 11% convinced that a decline in real GDP will occur in the 3rd quarter of this year.

The survey asks panelists to estimate the probability that real GDP will decline in the quarter in which the survey is taken, as well as the probabilities of a decline in each of the following four quarters. The anxious index (a term coined by The New York Times reporter David Leonhardt) is the probability of a decline in a real GDP in the quarter after a survey is taken. In the survey taken in the 2nd quarter of 2011, the index stands at 8.47%, which means that forecasters believe there is an 8.47% chance that real GDP will decline in the third quarter of 2011, up from last quarter’s anxious index of 7.08%. This value of the anxious index is not as high as the second half of 2010

when fears of a double-dip recession were elevated.

The forecasters also report just a 6.96% chance that we are currently (as of the 2nd quarter of 2011) in a recession. According to the panel, the probability that we will fall back in to recession is averaging around 11.5% through the end of the second quarter of 2012, which implies the possibility of a recession in the near term has increased in the minds of these forecasters from last quarter. This is not surprising after the spike in oil prices and the Japanese earthquake and tsunami.

The graph below plots the historical values of the anxious index and gray bars indicate periods of recession. The current levels of the anxious index and its sharp decline from the start of 2009 reflect the end of the recession. The current level of the anxious index is consistent with previous recoveries in the U.S. economy.

Figure 1.

The Anxious Index Probability of Decline in Real GDP in the Following Quarter Quarterly, 1968:Q4 to 2011:Q 100

80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Probability (percent)

90

Survey Date

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U . S . F o r eca s t

To the (Word) Cloud….

Every meeting of the Federal Reserve Bank’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concludes with the release of a policy statement covering the changes (if any) to the policy stance of the Fed. Three weeks later the more detailed minutes of the FOMC meeting are released.

Both of these documents are thoroughly analyzed and every phrase and word that is used, or omitted, is scrutinized and parsed in an attempt to glean the intentions of the committee and predict the future path of monetary policy.

In this forecast we take a new approach to this type of policy analysis prognostication by scrutinizing these FOMC statements and minutes using what are known as word clouds.

Word clouds create an artistic visualization of the text in a given document. There are numerous downloadable and web-based programs available to generate a picture with words that produce the interesting sizes and shapes of these word clouds. The words in a cloud appear in random order but the size of each word is a function of the frequency with which they appear on the word document, with the larger words appearing most frequently. The top 75 words with the higher frequency become part of the word cloud. For example, a word such as inflation that appears 31 times in the minutes or statements is represented with font size 48-point, and a word such as sectors, that only appears 6 times, gets a 12 point size.

In the examples below, the word clouds contain the text from the Federal Open Market Committee minutes from April 2009 and April 2011. Examination shows the evolution of FOMC policy discussions from the nadir of the financial crisis to two months before the twoyear anniversary of the economic recovery.

Comparison of the two word clouds gives insight into the evolution of the FOMC discussions as the financial crisis and recession gave way to recovery and greater stability in the financial sector.

At the bottom of the financial crisis and on approach to the bottom of the recession, 6

U.S. Forecast | July 2011

“economic conditions” and “financial markets” are front and center in the word cloud constructed from the minutes of the April 2009 FOMC meeting. This should not be a surprise given what had been transpiring in the economy in the year leading up to that meeting. “Credit” and “securities” are also in central positions in the word cloud as the financial crisis dominated policy discussions.

Word Cloud from April 2009 Minutes of the FOMC Meeting

Word Cloud from April 2011 Minutes of the FOMC Meeting

U . S . F o r eca s t

Zooming ahead 2 years to the minutes of the April 2011 FOMC meeting and the associated word cloud, it becomes clear that the focus of the committee has shifted. Front and center in this word cloud is “inflation.” While inflation, as Willie Nelson would say, “was always on the FOMC’s minds,” given inflation appears in both word clouds, the focus on this aspect of the economy and how it relates to Federal Reserve policy now takes center ring.

The Fed will eventually tighten policy, undoing the massive stimulus of the economy and that process is underway as QEII (quantitative easing round 2) has come to an end and no plans are currently in place for a third round. When then will interest rates go up? This is a tough call especially if the Fed is waiting for the labor market to show a more robust recovery, in which case the target funds rate could stay at 0%-0.25% well into 2012.

I think that the long and gradual process of raising the federal funds rate may begin in the second half of 2011. A funds rate target of 0.50% is not exactly a tight monetary policy stance, but markets must begin the process of weaning themselves from “free” money. If the federal funds rate target is increased it may stoke the bank’s appetite for riskier assets, specifically business lending. In this regard, a higher federal funds rate may actually accomplish what a zero rate target could not.

Timing of the Fed’s exit strategy may be uncertain, but the fact that the focus of discussions

about the future stance of monetary policy has now turned from loosening to tightening is clear.

Wherefore Art Thou, Home Equity?

You can deny thy father and refuse thy name, but there is no denying that the housing market continues to languish. The latest Flow of Funds report issued by the Federal Reserve Bank, shows that households are continuing to claw back wealth that was lost during the financial crisis and recession. There is one glaring exception: home equity.

Table 1 displays data from the latest issuance of the report and as you can see, the level of home equity remains at $6.1 trillion two years after falling to this level at the low point of the financial crisis. Home ownership is one of the main sources of wealth for families in the United States and recouping that lost wealth remains an elusive task.

In the face of this lost wealth, consumers continue the process of deleveraging, reducing their debt to disposable income ratio via higher rates of saving and lower rates of consumption spending. This process is likely to last for several more years as the American consumer has entered into what I have previously described as a “mini age of austerity.” (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/ id/36941740/41838919)

Table 1. U.S. Flow of Funds Household Data (Trillions of dollars) 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009Q1*

2011Q1

Total Assets

71.6

77.5

78.5

65.5

62.8

71.9

Financial Assets

43.3

47.9

50.6

41.2

39.6

48.8

Home Equity

13.2

12.8

10.3

6.9

6.1

6.1

Net Worth

59.5

64.0

64.2

51.3

48.7

58.1

* = Bottom of Financial Crisis

Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors

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U . S . F o r eca s t

GDP Outlook Slowing Recovery: Soft Patch or Briar Patch?

The pace of economic recovery slowed significantly in the first half of 2011. 1st quarter real GDP growth decelerated to just 1.9% from a healthy 3.1% rate of expansion in the 4th quarter of 2010. The second quarter will likely be as sluggish as the first, with growth coming in right around the same pace.

Should we be alarmed at this deceleration of GDP growth? Are we just passing through a soft patch in this recovery, or is it something more worrisome – a briar patch that has ensnared the recovery and is a precursor to another recession?

I think that while the slowing of economic growth is a disappointment, in light of the shocks that affected the economy in the first half of the year, this should come as no surprise.

The surge in commodity prices hit consumers hard in the pocketbook and on top of the struggles that households are facing, as we discussed above, led to consumer spending growth falling to just 0.6% in the second quarter.

The earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear crisis in Japan were a sudden and sharp disruption to supply chains that affected many sectors of the economy and the automotive sector in particular.

The earthquake and commodity price surge were a powerful one-two punch to the economic recovery. While they may have scored some points on the judges’ scorecard for this round, this combination did not put the recovery on the canvas. The economy absorbed these powerful blows and continued to grow. Rather than a sign of weakness, perhaps the correct interpretation is this is a sign that the economic recovery is stronger than these GDP growth rates on the surface would suggest.

We expect that the second half of 2011 will see some spring back in the step of the U.S. economy.

Real GDP growth will bounce back to 3.1% in the 3rd quarter of 2011 and ease to 2.8% in the 4th quarter. There is still significant pent-up demand

8

U.S. Forecast | July 2011

in the economy, however its release will come in a series of short-lived bursts rather than a single large and sustained venting.

Looking further into the future, real GDP growth in 2012 is expected to be 2.4%. In the next two years of our forecast horizon, growth will accelerate to 2.7% in 2013 and 3.4% in 2014.

If the economy does grow at this pace in 2014, it would represent the fastest expansion of the economy since 2004.

Business investment, outside of investment in structures, which will languish into next year, should see a rebound in the second half of the year. Uncertainty still hangs over companies like a dark cloud and despite record levels of corporate profits, firms are hesitant to hire.

The government sector will continue to be a drag on the economy. Federal budget deficits and the mammoth national debt have dramatically changed the policy discussion from stimulus to austerity. At the state and local government level, budget deficits have led to spending cuts, tax hikes and layoffs—all of which are weighing down on the economic recovery in the affected states and in the nation as a whole.

C o n s ume r Spen d in g

Higher oil prices were an unwelcome development in the first half of the year.

Borne of the so-called “Arab Spring” that hit many nations across North Africa and the Middle East, the unrest and in some cases violence that were triggered by the populist uprisings created fear of a major disruption to the global supply of oil. Some regimes fell quickly while others were quick to suppress protests via either violence or payoffs or a combination thereof. However, oil prices were quick to reflect this threat and prices shot upward.

In the short run, demand for oil and gasoline is relatively inelastic, so consumers were putting more of each paycheck into the gas tank. This left less disposable income available for other purchases; it also has led to a souring of consumer

U . S . F o r eca s t

confidence. This was yet another blow to the largest component of the economy.

The aftermath of the recession and the financial and housing crises left consumers facing badly battered balance sheets. The process of recovering from this damage will take years.

There is however, significant pent-up demand in the economy and consumers are in a tug-of-war between forces that are pushing them in opposite directions when it comes to spending.

We expect the average rate of consumer spending growth during 2011-2014 to be 2.2%.

U.S. consumers are, as stated above, in a mini age of austerity as they work to rebuild all that the recession and financial and housing crises have taken away.

Consumer sentiment has soured somewhat because of rising oil prices, and as consumers witnessed more and more of their hard-earned dollars going into the gas tank, it took a psychological toll. Have we seen the worst of the energy price surge? Probably, but we have also seen much of the post surge retrenchment of prices. Therefore, any further falling oil price windfall for consumers is not likely to materialize as it did following the 2008 price spike.

I n v e s t men t

Nonresidential investment spending will continue to strengthen as the recovery continues.

We expect that nonresidential investment will grow at an average pace of nearly 6.9% in 2011 through 2014. This rate of investment growth is significantly higher than the average pace of growth during the last investment expansion, which was 5.7% in 2003-2007.

Businesses are still sitting on a tremendous amount of cash, hoarded since the recovery began, and interest rates remain at historically low levels.

The cost of borrowing is likely to remain subdued for an extended period. We are expecting that business spending on equipment and software will grow at an annual average rate of 8.5% through 2014.

Investment in computers and peripherals will rise in the near term due to replacement cycles and cost reduction focused IT plans. The expanded investment incentives included in the legislation that extended the Bush tax cuts will also push spending higher. This type of investment will experience average growth of 15.0% in 2011 through the end of 2014.

The commercial real estate sector is still weighing down on investment in non-residential structures. We expect growth to continue to decline throughout 2011. As the commercial credit crisis continues to play itself out, financing will remain elusive. As the flow of credit begins to resolve itself, growth will return in this type of investment in 2013. By the time we get into 2014, growth in this component of investment will be a robust 11.3%.

Investment in transportation equipment grew robustly in 2010 and will continue to do so throughout our forecast horizon. This type of investment will have an average growth rate of 19.2% during the four years from 2011 through 2014.

Pent-up demand and low interest rates will bolster light vehicle sales to grow from current levels of 11.5 million to a level near 16.3 million in 2014.

Residential fixed investment growth has been negative for six straight years including 2011.

The somewhat staccato recovery, persistently high unemployment, and mortgage underwriting difficulties have prolonged the woes of a floundering housing market. In 2012, things finally start to turn around as residential fixed investment growth finally turns positive in this year. It will average 20.2% growth through 2012-2014 with much faster growth in 2013 and beyond. Housing starts bottomed out in 2009 and have hugged that bottom since that time.

Inventories of new homes have fallen significantly.

We expect starts to accelerate significantly in 2012 before hitting nearly 1.6 million in 2014.

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U . S . F o r eca s t

G o v e r nmen t Spen d in g

As the latest act of political theater, the debt ceiling negotiations, plays itself out in Washington DC, one thing is clear: the massive budget deficits and mountain of national debt that they feed have become the focal point of the country. Watching the pain that Greece is being forced to endure as a result of its years of fiscal excesses is a stark warning of where the current path of fiscal policy in the U.S. will lead us.

We are on the road that leads directly to Athens and we clearly need to get off it. Should we do so by violently jerking the fiscal steering wheel and sending the economy careening into the culvert or should we plan credibly over the medium run to safely take the next exit and leave the road to Athens in a calm and orderly fashion?

Clearly the latter makes more sense given the still fragile state of our economic recovery, but unfortunately the opportunity to do just this was kicked to the curb. President Obama’s bi-partisan deficit reduction commission made recommendations that should have been discussed and implemented in a timely and less frenetic pace, but the President unfortunately failed to provide leadership on this issue by taking these recommendations and advancing them through the policy process. Consequently, he missed an excellent opportunity to implement the change he so often promised on the campaign trail yet has so infrequently delivered while in office.

Instead, we get the current game of chicken being played out with regard to the impending debt-ceiling vote, with both sides of the political spectrum refusing to blink (so far) and the average American in the middle held hostage by the ideologue of each party.

Any discussion of fixing our deficit and debt problem that excludes entitlements is akin to discussing cardiac health without including diet and exercise. It is pointless and unachievable.

The national debt is over $14.35 trillion and rising. Trillion-dollar federal budget deficits are lingering like in-laws overstaying a holiday visit. Despite the debt-ceiling theatrics, we are

10

U.S. Forecast | July 2011

forecasting deficits to stay above that level through 2012. In 2013, we are forecasting the federal budget deficit to be $808 billion and $737 billion in 2014.

Net Exports

Overall trade growth will continue through the end of our 2014 forecast period. The world will continue to become more and more integrated both in the trade of goods and services, as well as in financial flows.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar was temporarily interrupted as the Greek sovereign debt crisis unfolded, but then the dollar began to depreciate again in anticipation of QEII. The wobbling of the U.S. dollar vis-à-vis major currency trading partners will reverse course in 2012 and the dollar will appreciate through 2014.

In part due to the weakness of the U.S. consumers’ recovery and the relative strength of some of our trading partners’ economic growth, export growth will outstrip import growth through the end of our forecast horizon. Average export growth in 2011-2014 will be 8.5%, and the average growth in imports will be 4.7% over the same period.

The current account deficit which improved in 2007-2009, particularly so after the price of oil collapsed in 2008, will be relatively stable over our forecast horizon. We expect the balance to average -$465 billion 2011 through the end of 2014. The forecast levels of the current account deficit are slightly more than 58% of the peak deficit of over $801 billion in 2006.

U nemp l o y men t

The national unemployment rate has ticked up in recent months and as of this moment stands at 9.2%. This is not welcome news, but it is not a surprise. As the economy recovers, workers who had given up the job search during the long recession become encouraged by the economic turnaround and reenter the labor force. This reentry has the effect of pushing up the headline

U . S . F o r eca s t

unemployment number, which stands at 9.2%.

Underemployment (U-6) is an even bigger problem and stands at 16.2% in June, up from the first quarter of 2011 where it had fallen to 15.7% as of March. This unused capacity in the labor market will get utilized before firms need to go out and hire new workers. This is responsible in part for the slow recovery of payroll hiring.

It will be many years before we see the unemployment rate fall back into a range consistent with full employment level of unemployment. By the end of 2014, the unemployment rate will still stand at an uncomfortably high 7.3%.

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utomobile and Light Truck Sales July 2011 (Millions Vehicles)

Charts

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Auto Sales Light Truck Sales

F OR E C A ST f o r t h e na t i o n

U . S . F o r eca s t C h a r t s

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U . S . F o r eca s t C h a r t s

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U.S. Forecast | July 2011

U . S . F o r eca s t C h a r t s

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U . S . F o r eca s t C h a r t s

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U.S. Forecast | July 2011

U . S . F o r eca s t C h a r t s

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U . S . F o r eca s t C h a r t s

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U.S. Forecast | July 2011

Table 15. Government Receipts and Expenditures History 2003

2004

2005

2006

1885.1

2014.0

2290.1

2524.5

Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts

2654.7

774.2

799.2

931.9

1049.9

1165.6

Corp. Profits Tax Accruals

197.8

250.3

341.0

395.0

362.8

89.3

94.3

98.8

99.4

94.5

762.8

807.6

852.6

904.6

945.3 2900.0

F OR E C A ST f o r t h e na t i o n Receipts

Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Contributions for Social Insurance Expenditures

July 2011

2007

Federal Gover

2261.5

2393.4

2573.1

2728.3

Purchases Goods & Services

756.5

824.7

876.3

931.7

976.4

National Defense

498.0

550.8

589.1

624.9

662.3

Other

258.6

273.9

287.3

306.9

314.1

1339.4

1405.1

1491.3

1587.1

1690.5

962.6

1014.3

1078.0

1180.7

1254.2

28.6

30.9

40.9

35.0

42.2

Grants in Aid to State & Local Gov't

338.0

349.2

361.2

359.0

380.8

Net Interest

196.5

204.6

239.0

261.0

291.0

45.3

45.7

64.1

53.9

50.2

Surplus (+) or Deficit (-)

-376.4

-379.5

-283.0

-203.8

-245.2

Receipts

1496.3

1601.0

1730.5

1829.7

1923.1

Personal Tax/Nontax Receipts

977.7

1059.4

1163.1

1249.1

1313.6

Corporate Profits

323.1

Transfer Payments To Persons To Foreigners

Subsidies less Surplus of Gov't Entities

State and Local Go

248.6

276.7

302.5

34.0

41.7

55.0

59.1

57.8

Contributions for Social Insurance

20.1

24.1

24.8

21.8

18.9

338.0

349.2

361.2

359.0

380.8

Federal Grants-In-Aid Expenditures

t ab l e s

226.2

Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals

1535.13

1609.33

1704.50

1778.63

1910.83

Purchases Goods & Services

1356.1

1408.2

1493.6

1586.7

1697.9

Government Social Benefits

353.4

384.3

404.8

402.9

433.7

353.4

384.3

404.8

402.9

433.7

Interest Received

20.6

19.0

10.9

2.1

0.5

Net Subsidies

-3.2

-0.6

0.3

1.7

16.2

2.0

2.1

2.3

2.4

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

-8.4

26.0

51.0

12.2

Transfer Payments

Dividends Received

1.7

Net Wage Accruals

0.0

Surplus (+) or Deficit (-)

-38.8

U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 1. Summary of the Long-Term Forecast of the U.S.

Table 1. Annual Summary of the Long-Term Forecast of the U.S.

Gross Domestic Product Final Sales of Domestic Product Total Consumption Durables Nondurables Services Nonresidential Fixed Investment Equipment & Software Information Processing Equipment Computers & Peripherals Communications Equipment Industrial Equipment Transportation Equipment Aircraft Other Equipment Structures Commercial & Health Care Manufacturing Power & Communication Mining & Petroleum Other Residential Fixed Investment Exports Imports Federal Government State & Local Government

Real GDP Nominal GDP

GDP Deflator Consumer Prices Excl. Food & Energy Producer Prices, Finished Goods Employment Cost Index - Total Comp.

2004

2005

2.5 2.4 2.8 6.0 3.7 1.9 1.0 2.6 6.8 8.9 2.6 -0.2 -5.8 -25.2 -3.3 -3.6 -6.1 -6.0 -7.7 14.2 -3.3 8.2 1.6 4.4 6.6 -0.1

3.6 3.2 3.5 6.6 3.2 2.9 6.0 7.7 9.5 11.5 8.9 -2.7 21.0 10.6 29.0 1.1 2.5 5.0 -16.7 16.6 1.4 9.9 9.5 11.0 4.1 -0.2

3.1 3.2 3.4 5.2 3.4 3.0 6.7 8.6 7.3 11.7 1.8 8.3 13.5 -10.0 18.7 1.5 -0.8 17.8 -2.0 10.5 -5.5 6.2 6.7 6.2 1.3 -0.2

History 2006 2007

2009

2010

Billions of Dollars 11840.7 12263.8 12638.4 12976.3 13228.9 13228.9 12880.6 13248.2 11142.2 11867.8 12638.4 13398.9 14061.8 14369.1 14119.1 14660.4

2011

3.3 3.4 2.1 4.9 3.1

31.1 3.6 1.3 73.9 17.2 87.6 16.643 1.854 5.443 6.0 -0.3 -377 -519

41.5 2.8 2.3 76.1 58.3 95.2 16.867 1.949 5.914 5.5 1.1 -413 -629

56.5 1.6 3.2 78.2 49.8 88.6 16.948 2.073 6.181 5.1 1.7 -319 -746

66.1 0.9 2.2 78.6 63.2 87.3 16.504 1.812 5.712 4.6 1.8 -248 -801

Federal Funds Rate (%) 3-Month Treasury Bill Rate (%) 1-Year Treasury Note Yield (%) 5-Year Treasury Note Yield (%) 10-Year Treasury Note Yield (%) 25-Year Treasury Note Yield (%) 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate (%) S&P 500 Stock Index (% change) Exchange Rate, Major Trading Partners (% change (negative = depreciation))

1.13 1.01 1.24 2.97 4.02 5.05 5.82 964 -1.3 1.111 -12.3

1.35 1.36 1.89 3.43 4.27 5.12 5.84 1131 18.0 1.020 -8.1

3.21 3.13 3.62 4.05 4.29 4.56 5.86 1207 6.8 1.000 -1.8

4.96 4.72 4.93 4.75 4.79 4.87 6.42 1311 8.6 0.985 -1.4

Personal Income (Bil. of $) (% change) Disposable Income (Bil. of $) (% change) Real Disposable Income (Bil. Of 2005 $) (% change) Saving Rate (%) After-Tax Profits (Billions of $) (% change)

9378 3.5 8378 4.6 8854 2.5 3.5 660 15.5

9937 6.0 8889 6.1 9155 3.4 3.4 923 40.2

10486 5.5 9277 4.4 9277 1.3 1.4 1228 33.1

11268 7.5 9916 6.9 9651 4.0 2.4 1349 10.1

72.3 1.6 2.7 79.2 28.7 85.6 16.089 1.342 4.959 4.6 1.1 -162 -710

Other Measures 99.6 61.7 79.4 1.0 3.7 3.9 -3.7 -11.0 5.3 74.9 66.2 71.7 -39.0 -116.9 57.3 63.8 66.3 71.8 13.195 10.402 11.545 0.900 0.554 0.585 4.337 4.559 4.311 5.8 9.3 9.6 -0.6 -4.4 -0.7 -455 -1416 -1294 -677 -377 -471

Financial Markets, NSA 5.02 1.93 0.16 0.18 4.38 1.40 0.15 0.14 4.52 1.82 0.47 0.32 4.43 2.80 2.19 1.93 4.63 3.67 3.26 3.21 4.84 4.28 4.07 4.25 6.33 6.04 5.04 4.69 1477 1221 947 1139 12.8 -17.2 -18.9 21.6 0.930 0.888 0.926 0.901 -5.6 -4.1 4.9 -2.6

11912 5.7 10424 5.1 9874 2.3 2.1 1293 -4.2

Incomes 12391 12175 4.0 -1.7 10953 11035 5.1 0.8 10043 10100 1.7 0.6 4.1 5.9 1025 1062 -20.6 13.5

12541 3.0 11375 3.1 10237 1.4 5.8 1384 32.0

Forecast 2012 2013

2.4 2.4 2.1 5.3 1.8 1.7 7.4 10.9 7.2 13.8 14.1 14.5 31.4 14.6 15.8 -2.9 2.6 1.5 -7.4 -6.1 1.4 9.7 9.3 5.1 -2.8 -1.8

2.7 2.8 1.6 4.1 1.0 1.5 5.3 5.0 4.4 14.0 0.7 1.5 12.7 5.8 5.0 6.6 9.1 31.1 -0.9 -2.3 16.4 34.1 8.3 4.2 -3.3 -0.1

2014

3.4 3.3 2.4 3.9 1.5 2.6 8.0 7.0 6.9 16.2 6.6 2.7 9.7 6.4 10.3 11.3 28.8 13.6 6.8 -5.0 16.2 16.9 8.0 5.3 -2.0 1.1

13568.8 13893.4 14266.9 14751.5 15275.5 15826.1 16510.8 17381.6

Prices & Wages, Percent Change, Annual Rate 3.3 2.9 2.2 0.9 1.0 3.2 2.9 3.8 -0.3 1.6 2.5 2.3 2.3 1.7 1.0 3.0 3.9 6.4 -2.5 4.2 2.9 3.1 2.9 1.4 1.9

2.8 2.7 1.8 3.6 3.8

U.S. Forecast | July 2011

2008

Composition of Real GDP, Percent Change 2.7 1.9 0.0 -2.6 2.9 2.4 2.6 2.2 0.5 -2.1 1.4 2.5 2.9 2.4 -0.3 -1.2 1.7 2.4 4.1 4.2 -5.1 -3.5 7.6 8.1 2.8 2.0 -1.1 -1.2 2.7 2.2 2.7 2.2 0.9 -0.8 0.5 1.5 7.9 6.7 0.4 -17.0 5.8 7.9 7.5 3.7 -2.4 -15.0 15.2 11.2 8.3 8.9 6.2 0.3 13.5 8.6 23.3 14.1 13.7 -0.8 27.8 15.9 10.8 16.0 3.1 0.5 13.4 9.7 8.4 4.0 -4.2 -23.2 5.9 16.3 9.2 -4.1 -22.9 -45.1 47.8 23.1 -5.1 30.6 -4.2 -18.0 -1.7 0.4 7.2 -18.2 -12.2 -36.9 11.9 36.3 9.2 14.0 6.2 -20.4 -13.3 -0.9 6.1 10.0 -3.6 -30.1 -24.4 -7.4 10.3 18.1 25.6 8.0 -32.3 -15.1 7.9 39.0 11.6 3.0 -9.0 -4.6 14.7 6.2 6.5 -35.0 28.8 22.5 9.3 15.2 13.2 -18.7 -27.1 -15.3 -7.2 -18.7 -24.0 -22.4 -2.9 -1.4 9.0 9.3 6.2 -9.4 11.8 8.5 6.1 2.7 -2.6 -13.7 12.7 4.2 4.8 -0.3 2.1 1.3 7.2 5.8 0.9 1.4 0.3 -0.9 -1.4 -2.7

2.2 2.3 1.5 3.2 3.8

Oil - WTI ($ per barrel) Productivity (% change) Industrial Production (% change) Factory Operating Rate Nonfarm Inven. Chg. (Bil. of 2005 $) Consumer Sentiment Index Light Vehicle Sales (Million units) Housing Starts (Million units) Existing House Sales (Million units) Unemployment Rate (%) Payroll Employment (% change) Federal Surplus (Unified, FY, bil. $) Current Account Balance (Bil. $)

20

2003

1.7 3.0 1.5 5.8 2.0

1.2 1.8 1.6 1.1 2.1

1.6 1.9 1.7 1.4 2.3

1.8 2.0 2.1 1.0 2.6

98.7 105.5 1.3 0.4 4.1 3.2 75.1 77.0 58.4 51.7 72.3 74.9 12.601 14.2 0.584 0.8 4.436 4.8 8.9 8.6 1.1 1.5 -1390 -1071.1 -452 -468.8

109.4 1.1 3.0 78.0 44.2 76.3 15.4 1.3 5.1 8.3 1.4 -808.7 -456.4

113.0 1.7 3.8 79.5 52.0 80.9 16.3 1.6 5.3 7.6 2.0 -737.8 -483.5

3.0 2.9 3.3 3.9 4.7 5.4 6.0 1321.3 3.5 0.9 6.5

4.3 4.2 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.6 6.6 1458.6 10.4 0.9 -0.2

0.34 0.29 0.47 2.07 3.41 4.54 4.83 1316 15.6 0.833 -7.5

1.4 1.4 1.7 2.9 4.1 5.2 5.5 1277.7 -2.9 0.9 2.3

13141 13587.6 14163.8 15004.8 4.8 3.4 4.2 5.9 11803 12146 12507 13204 3.8 2.9 3.0 5.6 10386 10515 10645 11031 1.5 1.2 1.2 3.6 5.0 4.2 3.7 4.7 1450 1477 1624 1703 4.8 1.9 9.9 4.9

U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 2. Real Gross Domestic Product

Table 2. Real Gross Domestic Product History 2003

2004

2005

2006

Forecast 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Real GDP Billions 2005 $ Gross Domestic Product Final Sales of Domestic Product Total Consumption

11840.7 12263.8 12638.4 12976.3 13228.9 13228.9 12880.6 13248.2

13568.8 13893.4 14266.9 14751.5

11824.8 12198.2 12588.4 12917.1 13200.0 13268.1 12992.8 13176.7

13503.8 13834.4 14215.8 14692.1

8247.6

8532.7

8819.0

9073.5

9289.5

9265.0

9153.9

9313.6

9535.3

9738.1

9898.1 10140.8

986.1

1051.0

1105.5

1150.4

1198.5

1136.4

1094.6

1178.3

1273.1

1340.7

1395.4

1449.8

Nondurables

1845.6

1904.6

1968.4

2023.6

2064.3

2041.2

2017.4

2072.6

2119.2

2156.9

2177.5

2209.9

Services

5418.4

5577.6

5745.1

5899.7

6028.3

6082.3

6032.7

6064.7

6158.2

6265.1

6358.2

6520.8

1191.0

1263.0

1347.3

1453.9

1552.0

1556.6

1290.8

1365.0

1472.1

1579.9

1664.5

1798.0

851.4

917.3

995.6

1069.6

1109.0

1082.0

916.3

1056.1

1173.9

1301.4

1366.5

1461.8

405.0

443.1

475.3

514.8

560.5

594.7

595.8

676.2

734.3

786.9

821.5

878.5

Computers & Peripherals

63.4

70.6

78.9

97.1

110.7

125.5

123.6

157.4

182.5

207.4

236.3

274.5

Communications Equipment

75.4

81.7

83.2

92.2

106.7

109.5

109.8

124.4

136.5

155.5

156.6

167.0

Industrial Equipment

151.6

147.4

159.6

172.9

179.9

172.2

132.2

139.7

162.5

185.5

188.2

193.3

Transportation Equipment

132.9

161.1

181.7

198.2

190.2

147.2

76.4

113.0

138.2

181.6

204.3

224.0

22.6

25.1

22.0

20.6

26.8

25.7

20.7

20.3

20.3

23.2

24.5

26.1

31.7

40.8

48.2

51.6

42.1

36.8

23.1

25.9

35.1

40.7

42.7

47.1

343.0

346.7

351.8

384.0

438.2

464.2

369.6

319.0

316.1

306.9

326.8

363.8

133.8

137.1

135.9

144.2

158.6

152.8

107.0

80.3

74.3

76.2

83.2

107.2

Manufacturing

24.3

25.5

29.9

33.0

39.0

48.5

52.2

35.4

29.7

30.1

39.5

44.7

Power & Communication

55.7

46.2

45.2

48.7

67.8

74.0

75.8

68.8

65.3

60.5

60.0

64.0

Mining & Petroleum

60.0

69.9

77.1

88.3

93.6

99.7

64.3

81.4

99.1

92.6

90.1

85.6

Other

66.5

67.4

63.7

69.6

80.3

90.4

73.5

53.3

45.1

45.7

53.2

61.8

664.3

729.5

775.0

718.2

584.2

444.2

342.7

332.5

327.6

359.6

482.3

562.2

Exports

1116.8

1222.8

1305.1

1422.1

1554.4

1647.7

1490.7

1665.5

1807.4

1976.2

2141.0

2311.6

Imports

1720.7

1910.8

2027.8

2151.2

2209.3

2151.8

1853.8

2088.1

2172.9

2282.5

2378.8

2505.1

831.1

865.0

876.3

894.9

906.1

971.8

1027.6

1076.9

1073.6

1043.5

1008.8

988.3

1499.7

1497.1

1493.6

1507.2

1528.1

1532.6

1518.8

1497.4

1457.6

1430.7

1429.2

1445.5

Durables

Nonresidential Fixed Investment Equipment & Software Information Processing Equipment

Aircraft Other Equipment Structures Commercial & Health

Residential Fixed Investment

Federal Government State & Local Government

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

21

U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 3. Quarterly Summary of the Forecast of the U.S.

Table 3. Quarterly Summary of the Forecast of the U.S.

2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4

Gross Domestic Product Final Sales of Domestic Product Total Consumption Durables Nondurables Services Nonresidential Fixed Investment Equipment & Software Information Processing Equipment Computers & Peripherals Communications Equipment Industrial Equipment Transportation Equipment Aircraft Other Equipment Structures Commercial & Health Care Manufacturing Power & Communication Mining & Petroleum Other Residential Fixed Investment Exports Imports Federal Government State & Local Government

Real GDP Nominal GDP

GDP Deflator Consumer Prices Excl. Food & Energy Producer Prices, Finished Goods Employment Cost Index - Total Comp.

Oil - WTI ($ per barrel) Productivity (% change) Industrial Production (% change) Factory Operating Rate Nonfarm Inven. Chg. (Bil. of 2005 $) Consumer Sentiment Index Light Vehicle Sales (Million units) Housing Starts (Million units) Existing House Sales (Million units) Unemployment Rate (%) Payroll Employment (% change) Federal Surplus (NIPA Bil. $) Current Account Balance (Bil. $)

Federal Funds Rate (%) 3-Month Treasury Bill Rate (%) 1-Year Treasury Note Yield (%) 5-Year Treasury Note Yield (%) 10-Year Treasury Note Yield (%) 25-Year Treasury Note Yield (%) 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate (%) S&P 500 Stock Index (% change) Exchange Rate, Major Trading Partners (%change (negative = depreciation))

3.1 6.7 4.0 21.1 4.1 1.5 7.7 7.7 14.5 25.9 15.4 10.5 -20.0 -50.6 7.0 7.6 -5.1 -32.9 87.8 5.6 -19.0 3.3 8.6 -12.6 -0.3 -2.6

1.9 0.6 2.2 9.3 1.4 1.3 2.0 8.8 1.4 -5.1 0.4 13.7 47.0 -20.6 102.1 -14.8 -13.9 -17.8 -39.6 10.3 -16.6 -1.9 7.7 5.1 -8.0 -4.1

1.9 2.0 0.6 -4.6 0.6 1.4 5.5 4.8 6.4 20.3 -3.2 3.1 13.8 18.3 36.5 7.6 -1.8 13.1 1.5 30.0 -17.4 3.7 9.5 1.0 4.5 -4.0

3.3 3.2 3.0 7.8 3.4 2.1 15.5 17.9 13.4 47.0 21.5 47.5 8.5 23.3 -6.1 8.7 -1.0 3.2 6.3 25.7 -8.9 -0.8 9.6 5.8 -4.8 -2.7

2.8 2.4 2.8 9.8 2.6 1.8 11.6 17.3 11.8 15.9 28.9 24.1 40.4 21.6 0.1 -3.7 3.9 1.8 -13.7 -3.4 -4.0 7.1 9.5 11.5 1.1 -2.7

13381 14871

13444 15018

13506 15200

13615 15389

13709 15494

0.4 2.6 0.6 6.5 2.2

2.0 5.2 1.7 12.9 2.1

2.9 4.1 2.4 7.5 1.8

1.7 1.7 1.9 -1.2 1.8

0.0 1.8 1.4 0.8 1.9

Composition of Real GDP, Percent Change, Annual Rate 2.2 1.9 2.2 2.9 2.0 3.5 3.3 2.3 2.1 2.4 3.1 2.3 3.4 2.9 1.9 1.9 1.6 2.2 1.2 1.6 1.6 5.4 4.0 2.6 6.9 4.2 4.0 2.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.8 0.9 1.5 1.7 3.9 4.0 5.9 8.2 -1.2 8.7 8.3 6.6 9.7 9.2 9.6 -4.5 6.9 7.7 2.3 5.9 6.3 7.9 -2.4 5.5 7.7 -6.2 12.6 19.3 24.3 0.7 13.1 22.9 14.2 9.5 5.3 7.5 -14.3 5.2 5.8 4.1 9.5 8.9 9.8 -11.0 2.1 2.6 48.0 34.9 27.0 11.4 2.1 13.7 11.9 13.2 10.2 7.8 6.8 1.7 6.1 7.2 46.8 21.6 0.9 2.1 -6.7 14.5 13.7 -3.9 -12.3 -4.2 3.5 10.6 14.8 10.0 4.2 9.8 -2.1 -7.4 10.7 16.9 21.9 -10.4 -4.3 8.7 48.1 45.3 38.1 21.2 -12.1 -12.5 2.1 -4.8 -3.1 2.7 3.3 -4.3 -30.7 -19.3 -0.9 5.3 11.6 -1.5 2.8 3.8 16.1 18.9 18.5 17.1 14.8 3.9 11.0 23.6 40.9 42.5 43.0 26.6 9.5 9.3 9.0 8.3 8.7 7.7 8.0 1.6 4.7 4.5 4.9 2.2 4.5 5.6 -4.4 -4.4 -3.9 -3.9 -3.3 -2.9 -2.5 -2.2 -0.2 -0.5 -1.8 -0.4 1.1 1.0

13783 15623

13847 15734

14328 16609

1.5 1.9 1.8 1.0 2.3

3.4 3.5 2.9 4.7 1.6 3.1 7.6 6.9 6.4 13.9 6.7 4.8 9.5 7.2 13.3 10.0 26.6 14.7 5.9 -8.0 17.8 13.8 7.7 5.6 -2.1 1.3

3.5 3.6 2.8 5.2 1.7 2.9 7.7 6.4 7.2 15.7 7.4 1.2 6.6 4.5 7.1 11.6 32.5 5.8 9.6 -7.1 17.2 14.0 8.2 5.1 -1.7 1.1

3.6 3.6 2.8 3.4 1.9 3.0 8.0 6.5 7.0 14.8 7.5 -0.8 9.9 6.0 4.6 12.5 34.0 -1.2 6.7 0.4 13.9 8.3 8.6 4.9 -1.3 0.9

3.7 3.8 3.1 5.5 2.0 3.1 7.9 6.2 7.1 15.9 6.9 1.6 3.9 6.3 2.7 13.0 33.5 11.7 8.9 -7.7 14.4 8.7 8.2 4.7 -1.0 1.1

14435 16805

14557 17034

14683 17263

14815 17495

14951 17735

1.7 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.5

2.1 2.1 2.3 0.9 2.9

1.9 1.9 2.3 0.5 2.6

1.8 1.9 2.1 0.5 2.6

1.8 2.0 2.1 1.3 2.6

Other Key Measures 85.0 94.0 102.6 95.7 102.5 104.5 105.2 105.9 106.6 107.6 108.8 110.0 111.2 112.0 112.6 113.3 114.0 2.9 1.8 -0.3 1.4 0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 0.6 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 3.1 4.2 1.8 5.3 3.1 3.9 2.0 2.4 2.2 2.2 4.5 4.1 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.9 73.3 74.4 74.5 75.4 76.2 76.7 76.8 77.0 77.3 77.1 77.8 78.4 78.8 79.0 79.3 79.8 80.0 15.1 58.5 52.5 55.8 66.7 63.3 55.2 47.9 40.6 32.7 37.6 50.6 55.8 54.3 50.3 53.0 50.4 71.3 73.1 71.2 71.4 73.5 75.1 75.7 74.1 74.7 74.2 75.4 77.3 78.4 79.3 80.3 81.5 82.6 12.306 13.011 12.063 12.242 13.087 13.566 13.988 14.293 14.832 15.036 15.390 15.511 15.668 15.962 16.262 16.343 16.550 0.539 0.582 0.559 0.589 0.608 0.645 0.691 0.822 0.991 1.135 1.257 1.348 1.420 1.468 1.520 1.590 1.642 4.170 4.473 4.342 4.443 4.488 4.581 4.704 4.783 4.954 5.044 5.058 5.138 5.177 5.166 5.226 5.297 5.465 9.6 8.9 9.1 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.2 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.5 7.3 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 -1340 -1292 -1284 -1221 -1211 -1000 -989 -966 -941 -770 -732 -708 -718 -726 -743 -744 -740 -449 -477 -431 -413 -486 -464 -467 -477 -468 -443 -447 -463 -473 -480 -481 -486 -487

0.16 0.13 0.27 2.12 3.46 4.56 4.85 1303 37.1 0.860 -5.6

0.18 0.12 0.29 1.93 3.27 4.39 4.70 1316 4.1 0.832 -12.4

0.38 0.32 0.49 1.97 3.35 4.51 4.75 1323 2.2 0.820 -5.7

0.64 0.60 0.81 2.24 3.58 4.70 5.02 1322 -0.3 0.819 -0.3

0.94 0.88 1.11 2.48 3.78 4.86 5.21 1297 -7.2 0.830 5.5

1.21 1.14 1.43 2.71 3.97 5.02 5.38 1282 -4.8 0.844 6.7

Personal Income (Bil. of $) 12701 (% change) 3.4 Disposable Income (Bil. of $) 11498 (% change) 2.9 Real Disposable Income (Bil. of 2005 $) 10305 (% change) 1.1 Saving Rate (%) 5.4 After-Tax Profits (Billions of $) 1369 (% change) -12.6

12935 7.6 11633 4.8 10328 0.9 5.1 1476 35.2

13061 3.9 11735 3.5 10335 0.3 5.0 1477 0.1

13209 4.6 11858 4.3 10404 2.7 5.0 1434 -11.1

13357 4.6 11987 4.4 10477 2.8 5.0 1415 -5.2

13384 0.8 11983 -0.1 10432 -1.7 4.1 1483 20.8

13516 4.0 12096 3.8 10498 2.6 4.2 1465 -4.8

U.S. Forecast | July 2011

14213 16414

Prices & Wages, Percent Change, Annual Rate 1.2 1.0 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.7 1.1 2.3 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.8 0.2 1.2 1.7 2.1 1.7 0.4 2.6 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4

0.19 0.14 0.26 1.49 2.86 4.16 4.42 1204 45.4 0.873 -14.6

22

Billions of Dollars 13922 14021 14092 15885 16062 16215

3.0 2.9 1.8 2.3 1.2 2.0 8.6 7.9 7.3 17.3 6.0 4.6 12.1 7.3 12.3 11.1 31.7 18.2 8.1 -8.5 16.1 18.2 7.7 5.8 -2.4 1.2

Financial Markets, NSA 1.58 2.02 2.46 1.54 1.99 2.44 1.92 2.40 2.87 3.10 3.39 3.56 4.31 4.52 4.59 5.30 5.46 5.45 5.67 5.89 5.97 1268 1264 1272 -4.1 -1.4 2.7 0.858 0.874 0.889 7.1 7.6 6.7

2.68 2.66 3.06 3.64 4.52 5.31 5.96 1298 8.3 0.900 5.1

3.08 3.05 3.47 3.94 4.64 5.33 6.03 1337 12.8 0.913 6.2

3.62 3.54 3.98 4.36 4.86 5.45 6.24 1378 12.6 0.925 5.2

4.09 3.97 4.42 4.75 5.06 5.54 6.45 1408 9.1 0.910 -6.4

4.33 4.09 4.43 4.77 5.03 5.45 6.47 1439 9.2 0.908 -0.9

4.37 4.23 4.67 5.01 5.24 5.64 6.65 1474 10.0 0.904 -1.8

4.54 4.40 4.84 5.09 5.34 5.69 6.81 1513 11.1 0.898 -2.6

Incomes 13798 13913 4.3 3.4 12308 12323 3.6 0.5 10590 10557 2.0 -1.3 4.1 3.5 1496 1590 9.1 27.7

14076 4.8 12427 3.4 10601 1.7 3.5 1617 6.8

14245 4.9 12556 4.2 10666 2.5 3.7 1634 4.3

14421 5.1 12720 5.3 10756 3.4 4.0 1654 5.0

14688 7.6 12917 6.3 10867 4.2 4.3 1688 8.5

14897 5.8 13110 6.1 10978 4.2 4.6 1703 3.6

15113 5.9 13303 6.0 11089 4.1 4.9 1702 -0.3

15321 5.6 13487 5.7 11190 3.7 5.0 1718 3.9

13653 4.1 12199 3.4 10538 1.5 4.2 1464 -0.3

U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 4. Quarterly Gross Domestic Product

Table 4. Quarterly Gross Domestic Product

2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4

Real GDP Billions 2005 $ Gross Domestic Product Final Sales of Domestic Product Total Consumption

13380.7 13444.3 13506.5 13615.4 13708.9 13782.8 13847.4 13922.2 14021.2 14091.6 14213.2 14328.1 14434.7 14557.2 14683.4 14814.8 14950.6 13361.2 13381.3 13447.2 13552.5 13634.3 13711.9 13784.9 13867.3 13973.7 14052.2 14168.9 14270.3 14371.6 14495.6 14625.8 14754.3 14892.8 9422.9

9473.3

9486.8

9557.1

9623.8

9670.1

9716.7

9756.3

9809.3

9838.2

9876.6

9916.1

9961.6 10033.8 10104.3 10173.8 10251.3

Durables

1237.2 1264.9 1250.0 1273.8 1303.8 1320.9 1334.0 1342.5 1365.2 1379.3 1392.7 1400.8 1409.0 1425.2 1443.5 1455.5 1475.0

Nondurables

2097.4 2104.6 2107.7 2125.3 2139.1 2146.4 2153.4 2160.7 2167.0 2169.6 2173.9 2180.0 2186.5 2195.0 2204.3 2214.7 2225.6

Services

6099.2 6119.0 6140.8 6172.9 6200.3 6224.6 6252.9 6277.5 6305.3 6320.1 6343.0 6369.1 6400.7 6450.1 6495.7 6543.7 6593.6

Nonresidential Fixed Investment Equipment & Software Information Processing Equipment Computers & Peripherals Communications Equipment

1413.9 1421.0 1440.1 1492.8 1534.3 1549.2 1564.5 1587.1 1618.6 1613.8 1647.7 1680.8 1715.9 1747.7 1780.3 1814.7 1849.4 1104.5 1127.9 1141.1 1189.0 1237.5 1257.5 1286.9 1315.4 1345.9 1330.6 1352.8 1378.2 1404.5 1428.0 1450.3 1473.3 1495.5 706.8

709.3

720.3

743.3

764.3

768.7

779.9

791.8

807.0

802.1

813.0

828.1

842.8

856.0

871.0

885.9

901.2

168.2

166.0

173.9

191.4

198.7

195.5

201.4

210.4

222.2

222.6

229.6

241.7

251.6

259.9

269.6

279.0

289.5

131.6

131.7

130.7

137.2

146.2

151.1

154.6

156.7

159.5

153.5

155.4

157.7

160.0

162.6

165.5

168.5

171.3

Industrial Equipment

146.7

151.5

152.6

168.2

177.5

179.3

183.5

187.4

191.8

186.3

187.3

188.5

190.6

192.9

193.4

193.1

193.8

Transportation Equipment

118.6

130.5

134.8

137.6

149.8

165.2

178.0

189.0

194.2

195.2

201.6

207.3

213.3

218.2

221.7

227.0

229.2

20.0

18.9

19.7

20.8

21.8

22.5

23.0

23.5

23.9

24.0

24.3

24.7

25.2

25.6

25.9

26.3

26.7

Aircraft Other Equipment Structures Commercial & Health

28.0

33.4

36.1

35.5

35.5

39.1

41.1

41.2

41.4

40.7

42.1

43.4

44.7

46.2

46.9

47.5

47.8

321.9

309.3

315.0

321.6

318.6

315.5

305.3

302.0

304.6

312.4

323.4

331.2

340.1

348.3

358.0

368.7

380.1

77.3

74.5

74.2

74.0

74.7

75.5

77.2

76.8

75.4

77.3

80.4

84.5

90.5

96.0

103.0

110.8

119.1

Manufacturing

30.3

28.8

29.7

30.0

30.1

29.3

29.0

29.6

32.6

35.8

38.9

40.8

42.5

44.0

44.6

44.5

45.7

Power & Communication

74.0

65.2

65.5

66.5

64.1

62.1

60.0

60.3

59.6

59.1

59.5

60.0

61.2

62.1

63.5

64.6

65.9

Mining & Petroleum

89.5

91.8

98.0

103.7

102.8

101.7

92.8

88.0

87.8

88.9

91.4

91.0

89.0

87.2

85.6

85.7

84.0

Other

49.6

47.4

45.2

44.2

43.7

44.0

44.4

46.1

48.2

50.3

52.3

54.1

56.2

58.5

60.9

62.9

65.1

325.9

324.3

327.2

326.6

332.3

335.5

344.4

363.1

395.6

432.2

472.7

501.4

522.8

540.0

558.0

569.3

581.3

Residential Fixed Investment Exports

1714.3 1746.2 1786.2 1827.7 1869.6 1912.5 1955.7 1998.2 2038.4 2081.2 2120.1 2161.1 2201.6 2243.0 2287.5 2334.9 2381.1

Imports

2112.0 2138.6 2143.8 2174.4 2234.5 2243.5 2269.4 2294.7 2322.2 2335.1 2360.7 2392.9 2426.6 2460.0 2490.5 2520.4 2549.6

Federal Government

1093.4 1070.7 1082.6 1069.2 1072.1 1060.1 1048.4 1038.0 1027.7 1019.1 1011.7 1005.4

State & Local Government

1491.9 1476.2 1461.3 1451.4 1441.6 1433.7 1433.0 1431.4 1424.8 1423.3 1427.3 1430.9 1435.2 1439.9 1443.9 1447.3 1451.1

999.2

993.8

989.6

986.2

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

983.8

23

U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 5. Annual Employment

Table 5. Annual Employment 2003

2004

2005

History 2006 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Forecast 2012 2013

2014

Millions Total Nonfarm Employment

129.996 131.419 133.694 136.092 137.587 136.778 130.789 129.822

131.256 133.162 134.978 137.640

Private Nonfarm

108.416 109.801 111.890 114.117 115.367 114.278 108.231 107.335

109.188 111.294 113.039 115.483

Mining

0.503

0.523

0.562

0.620

0.664

0.709

0.644

0.656

0.725

0.718

0.697

0.669

Construction

6.736

6.973

7.333

7.690

7.627

7.161

6.014

5.527

5.469

5.224

5.569

6.297

Manufacturing

14.508

14.315

14.225

14.156

13.877

13.402

11.845

11.527

11.739

12.088

12.397

12.561

Trade, Transportation and Utilities

25.287

25.536

25.960

26.278

26.626

26.293

24.902

24.609

24.956

25.590

25.991

26.340

Transportation & Warehousing

4.184

4.250

4.363

4.469

4.540

4.507

4.235

4.182

4.299

4.526

4.676

4.840

Financial Activities

7.976

8.031

8.153

8.328

8.299

8.143

7.770

7.632

7.615

7.695

7.715

7.676

Education & Health

16.588

16.950

17.370

17.825

18.319

18.838

19.191

19.563

19.999

20.353

20.495

20.792

Professional & Business Services

15.985

16.388

16.952

17.572

17.945

17.740

16.571

16.680

17.266

17.840

18.320

19.310

3.189

3.117

3.061

3.038

3.032

2.984

2.803

2.711

2.708

2.808

2.810

2.789

Leisure & Hospitality

12.175

12.492

12.813

13.109

13.425

13.436

13.074

13.017

13.219

13.469

13.519

13.495

Government

21.580

21.618

21.804

21.975

22.220

22.500

22.558

22.487

22.068

21.868

21.939

22.158

2.760

2.731

2.732

2.733

2.735

2.761

2.832

2.967

2.841

2.768

2.683

2.618

18.820

18.887

19.073

19.242

19.485

19.739

19.726

19.520

19.228

19.101

19.256

19.540

Information

Federal State & Local

Growth Rates Total Nonfarm Employment

-0.26

1.09

1.73

1.79

1.10

-0.59

-4.38

-0.73

1.10

1.45

1.36

1.97

Private Nonfarm

-0.38

1.28

1.90

1.99

1.10

-0.94

-5.29

-0.81

1.73

1.93

1.57

2.16

Mining

-0.23

5.16

9.36

10.03

5.80

6.69

-14.65

11.98

7.85

-4.45

-2.24

-5.06

1.53

4.31

5.81

2.36

-1.93

-9.25

-16.60

-3.14

-2.34

-2.44

11.20

12.88

Manufacturing

-4.46

-0.05

-0.84

-1.04

-2.05

-5.39

-11.47

0.56

2.56

3.12

2.22

0.88

Trade, Transportation and Utilities

-0.57

1.52

1.64

1.16

1.17

-3.32

-4.74

0.48

2.01

2.35

1.41

1.24

Transportation & Warehousing

-1.00

2.58

2.48

2.60

0.92

-2.77

-5.68

1.35

3.93

4.47

3.42

3.31

Financial Activities

1.25

0.95

2.13

1.35

-1.30

-2.46

-4.32

-0.91

0.18

1.34

-0.32

-0.38

Education & Health

2.12

2.36

2.51

2.62

2.88

2.57

1.72

2.13

2.21

1.40

0.56

1.60

Professional & Business Services

1.08

2.99

3.74

3.08

1.63

-3.64

-5.19

2.39

4.26

2.21

3.97

5.87

-5.02

-2.04

-1.07

-0.93

-0.03

-3.11

-6.04

-2.05

3.12

1.81

-0.94

0.53

1.59

2.59

2.15

2.85

2.12

-1.66

-2.46

0.76

1.63

1.79

0.00

-0.24

Government

-0.14

0.62

0.81

1.03

1.17

0.98

-0.19

-0.98

-1.52

-0.39

0.82

0.90

Federal

-1.55

-0.37

0.34

-0.21

0.55

1.16

2.45

4.09

-0.89

-3.12

-2.96

-2.00

0.08

0.77

0.88

1.20

1.25

0.95

-0.54

-1.24

-1.61

0.01

1.36

1.30

Construction

Information Leisure & Hospitality

State & Local

24

U.S. Forecast | July 2011

U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 6. Quarterly Employment

Table 6. Quarterly Employment

2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4

Employment (Millions) Total Nonfarm Employment

130.1 130.5 131.1 131.4 132.0 132.6 133.0 133.4 133.8 134.1 134.6 135.3 135.9 136.6 137.3 138.0 138.7

Private Nonfarm

107.9 108.3 108.9 109.4 110.1 110.7 111.1 111.5 111.9 112.2 112.7 113.3 113.9 114.5 115.1 115.8 116.5

Mining

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

Construction

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.4

5.3

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.3

5.5

5.6

5.8

6.0

6.2

6.4

6.6

Manufacturing

11.6

11.6

11.7

11.8

11.8

11.9

12.1

12.1

12.2

12.3

12.4

12.4

12.5

12.5

12.6

12.6

12.6

Trade, Transportation and Utilities

24.7

24.8

24.9

25.0

25.2

25.4

25.5

25.7

25.8

25.8

25.9

26.1

26.2

26.2

26.3

26.4

26.5

Transportation & Warehousing

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.5

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.9

4.9

Financial Activities

7.6

7.6

7.6

7.6

7.6

7.7

7.7

7.7

7.7

7.7

7.7

7.7

7.7

7.7

7.7

7.7

7.7

Education & Health

19.7

19.8

20.0

20.0

20.2

20.2

20.3

20.4

20.4

20.4

20.5

20.5

20.6

20.7

20.8

20.8

20.9

Professional & Business Services

16.8

17.0

17.2

17.4

17.6

17.7

17.8

17.9

17.9

18.0

18.2

18.4

18.7

18.9

19.2

19.5

19.7

Information

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

Leisure & Hospitality

13.1

13.1

13.2

13.3

13.3

13.4

13.5

13.5

13.5

13.5

13.5

13.5

13.5

13.5

13.5

13.5

13.5

Government

22.3

22.2

22.1

22.0

21.9

21.9

21.9

21.9

21.8

21.9

21.9

22.0

22.0

22.1

22.1

22.2

22.2

2.8

2.9

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

19.4

19.3

19.3

19.2

19.1

19.1

19.1

19.1

19.1

19.1

19.2

19.3

19.4

19.5

19.5

19.6

19.6

Federal State & Local

Growth Rates Total Nonfarm Employment

0.75

1.30

1.54

1.15

1.73

1.70

1.19

1.21

1.27

0.96

1.50

1.95

2.02

1.92

2.01

2.04

2.06

Private Nonfarm

1.46

1.84

2.12

1.81

2.36

2.18

1.51

1.52

1.54

1.11

1.63

2.13

2.19

2.06

2.25

2.30

2.28

-1.70

-3.08

-1.98

-2.27

-4.20

-6.08

-5.45

-4.91

Mining

11.00

7.09 15.25

5.90

1.92

-5.40

-3.79

-3.63

-5.28

Construction

-0.48

0.07

1.18

-3.41

-7.47

-7.60

-5.45

-0.74

3.65

7.74 10.37 11.81 13.05 13.11 12.97 12.00 11.14

Manufacturing

-0.21

3.35

1.71

2.00

3.10

2.62

5.06

1.77

2.88

2.55

2.69

1.46

2.12

1.12

0.84

0.59

0.97

Trade, Transportation and Utilities

1.42

1.11

1.72

1.74

3.41

2.86

2.30

2.35

1.81

0.77

1.30

1.98

1.57

0.74

1.45

1.40

1.35

Transportation & Warehousing

3.93

0.72

2.47

4.50

8.04

5.87

4.71

4.09

3.22

2.27

2.86

4.50

4.03

3.06

3.25

3.38

3.54

Financial Activities

0.00

-0.45

0.14

-0.07

1.11

1.62

0.61

2.16

0.99

0.15

-1.17

-0.42

0.18

-1.04

-1.02

0.07

0.45

Education & Health

2.56

2.04

2.52

1.96

2.31

1.54

1.43

1.89

0.73

-0.59

1.28

0.79

0.75

2.37

1.75

1.10

1.17

Professional & Business Services

3.18

4.06

3.63

4.65

4.72

4.54

1.48

1.03

1.80

1.90

3.46

5.60

4.92

4.99

6.05

6.38

6.07

-1.37

-1.77

-0.20

0.54 13.91

5.71

-2.15

-0.76

4.45

-0.18

-2.07

0.23

-1.74

-2.16

-0.94

1.15

4.09

0.37

1.68

2.61

1.76

0.48

3.13

2.50

1.23

0.28

0.61

-0.49

-0.62

0.48

-0.17

-0.47

-0.16

-0.15

-2.63

-1.31

-1.30

-2.08

-1.39

-0.68

-0.42

-0.36

-0.12

0.21

0.87

1.04

1.16

1.21

0.78

0.68

0.94

-11.86

0.61

-0.39

-1.52

-2.27

-3.06

-3.02

-3.20

-3.20

-2.96

-3.14

-2.96

-2.77

-2.40

-2.16

-1.92

-1.53

-1.17

-1.59

-1.44

-2.17

-1.26

-0.32

-0.04

0.06

0.34

0.67

1.45

1.61

1.72

1.71

1.19

1.03

1.27

Information Leisure & Hospitality Government Federal State & Local

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

25

U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 7. Quarterly Implicit Price Deflators (2005=100)

Table 7. Quarterly Implicit Price Deflators (2000=100)

2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4

GDP

111.2 111.7 112.5 113.0 113.0 113.3 113.6 114.1 114.6 115.1 115.5 115.9 116.4 117.0 117.6 118.1 118.6

Consumption

111.6 112.6 113.5 114.0 114.4 114.9 115.2 115.8 116.2 116.7 117.2 117.7 118.3 118.9 119.4 120.0 120.5

Durables Motor Vehicles Furniture

91.7

91.6

92.1

92.2

92.0

91.8

91.6

91.4

91.3

91.1

91.0

90.8

90.7

90.6

90.5

90.3

90.2

103.5 104.1 106.3 107.5 107.7 107.7 107.7 107.9 108.1 108.3 108.4 108.5 108.7 108.9 109.1 109.4 109.7 92.0

92.0

92.2

91.9

91.8

91.7

91.8

91.8

91.9

91.9

92.0

92.1

92.1

92.2

92.2

92.3

92.4

Other Durables

113.3 114.8 115.7 116.8 117.4 118.1 118.7 119.3 119.8 120.4 121.0 121.6 122.2 122.9 123.5 124.1 124.7

Nondurables

114.0 117.3 119.1 119.4 120.1 121.0 121.3 122.3 122.8 123.4 124.1 124.7 125.4 126.0 126.4 126.9 127.5

Food

114.4 116.1 118.0 119.5 120.0 120.4 120.9 121.1 121.3 121.7 122.1 122.5 123.0 123.6 124.2 124.8 125.3

Clothing & Shoes

97.4

97.6

97.6

97.9

98.0

98.3

98.4

98.6

98.7

98.9

99.1

99.3

99.5

99.7

99.9 100.1 100.2

Gasoline & Oil

133.1 151.4 158.1 154.4 156.0 158.4 156.4 161.0 161.9 162.9 164.1 165.2 166.3 166.1 164.8 164.3 164.3

Fuel

141.7 165.0 173.1 165.2 169.4 172.3 173.9 175.2 176.5 177.4 178.7 179.9 181.0 181.4 181.0 181.1 181.5

Services

114.6 115.1 115.8 116.3 116.8 117.3 117.7 118.3 118.8 119.5 120.0 120.6 121.3 122.0 122.8 123.5 124.2

Housing

112.6 113.0 113.3 113.6 113.8 114.1 114.5 114.9 115.3 115.8 116.3 116.8 117.4 117.9 118.6 119.2 119.8

Electricity

128.3 128.8 130.7 131.8 132.4 132.9 133.1 133.5 134.2 135.0 135.9 136.8 137.8 138.8 139.7 140.7 141.6

Natural Gas

85.9

85.8

87.4

88.9

90.2

88.2

88.1

90.9

96.0

99.9

98.9

97.9

99.1

99.0

98.4

96.5

96.6

Water & Sewer

134.3 136.4 138.1 139.6 141.0 142.4 143.6 144.7 145.8 146.9 148.0 149.1 150.1 151.3 152.4 153.6 154.8

Telephone

105.0 103.9 103.7 103.7 103.4 103.0 102.7 102.6 102.3 102.1 101.8 101.6 101.4 101.1 101.0 100.8 100.6

Transportation

118.4 120.1 121.3 121.6 122.0 122.5 122.9 123.3 123.8 124.2 124.7 125.2 125.7 126.4 126.9 127.5 128.0

Other Services

120.1 121.1 122.1 122.7 123.2 123.8 124.4 125.1 125.7 126.4 127.0 127.7 128.4 129.0 129.8 130.6 131.4

26

U.S. Forecast | July 2011

U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 8. Percent Change in Implicit Price Deflators

Table 8. Percent Change in Implicit Price Deflators

2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4

GDP

0.4

2.0

2.9

1.7

0.0

1.2

1.0

1.7

1.6

1.8

1.4

1.5

1.7

2.1

1.9

1.8

1.8

Consumption

1.7

3.9

3.2

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.2

1.9

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.8

2.1

1.9

1.8

1.9

Durables

-2.2

-0.4

2.1

0.3

-0.8

-1.0

-0.9

-0.6

-0.7

-0.7

-0.6

-0.7

-0.6

-0.4

-0.5

-0.6

-0.5

Motor Vehicles

-0.4

2.3

8.8

4.5

0.9

-0.2

0.0

0.8

0.7

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.9

0.9

0.9

1.0

Furniture

-4.2

-0.1

1.1

-1.4

-0.7

-0.1

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

Other Durables

5.5

5.6

3.3

3.9

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.0

1.9

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.2

2.1

1.9

1.9

Nondurables

6.1

12.2

6.0

1.3

2.3

2.8

1.0

3.3

1.9

1.9

2.1

2.1

2.2

1.9

1.4

1.7

1.8

Food

1.4

6.3

6.6

5.1

1.7

1.5

1.5

0.6

0.8

1.2

1.4

1.3

1.6

2.1

1.9

1.8

1.7

Clothing & Shoes

-3.6

0.6

-0.1

1.2

0.7

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.8

1.0

0.8

0.7

0.6

Gasoline & Oil

45.6

67.7

18.7

-8.9

4.1

6.5

-5.0

12.2

2.5

2.3

3.0

2.8

2.7

-0.4

-3.3

-1.2

-0.1

Fuel

45.8

83.9

21.2

-17.1

10.8

7.0

3.6

3.1

3.0

2.1

2.9

2.7

2.6

0.9

-1.0

0.2

0.9

Services

0.9

1.8

2.5

1.8

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.8

1.9

2.1

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.3

Housing

0.9

1.4

1.1

0.8

0.9

1.1

1.2

1.4

1.4

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.2

Electricity

2.5

1.7

5.9

3.2

2.1

1.3

0.7

1.3

1.9

2.4

2.7

2.8

3.0

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.7

-17.5

-0.6

7.7

6.9

6.3

-8.8

-0.2

12.9

24.5

17.2

-3.9

-3.7

4.7

-0.4

-2.3

-7.6

0.3

4.9

6.2

5.1

4.4

4.2

3.8

3.5

3.1

3.0

3.1

3.1

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.1

-1.7

-3.9

-0.7

-0.1

-1.2

-1.4

-1.3

-0.5

-0.9

-1.0

-1.0

-0.9

-0.9

-0.9

-0.7

-0.4

-0.8

Transportation

1.7

5.8

4.0

1.2

1.2

1.7

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.7

2.1

1.7

1.7

1.7

Other Services

1.8

3.3

3.3

2.1

1.8

1.7

1.9

2.4

2.1

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.1

2.3

2.7

2.5

Natural Gas Water & Sewer Telephone

Table 9. Annual Implicit Price Deflators (2000=100)

Table 9. Annual Implicit Price Deflators (2005=100)

GDP Consumption Durables Motor Vehicles Furniture Other Durables Nondurables Food Clothing & Shoes Gasoline & Oil Fuel Services Housing Electricity Natural Gas Water & Sewer Telephone Transportation Other Services

2003

2004

2005

94.1 94.6 102.9 99.1 101.2 101.6 92.8 95.3 101.3 69.8 64.2 93.7 95.4 92.5 77.2 89.7 102.3 95.1 91.2

96.8 97.1 101.0 98.4 99.9 101.4 96.1 98.3 100.9 82.1 74.7 96.7 97.6 94.2 83.6 95.0 100.7 96.5 95.4

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 99.9 100.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

History 2006 2007

103.3 102.7 98.5 100.1 99.5 101.9 103.2 101.7 99.6 112.8 114.1 103.4 103.6 112.0 102.6 104.9 100.6 104.2 104.1

106.3 105.6 96.7 99.7 98.7 105.9 106.5 105.7 98.6 123.9 123.3 107.0 107.3 116.7 102.4 110.3 102.4 106.6 107.4

2008

2009

2010

2011

108.6 109.1 95.3 98.6 98.0 109.7 112.5 112.1 97.8 144.5 167.2 110.6 110.3 124.1 116.6 116.8 104.1 112.4 112.4

109.6 109.3 93.8 98.7 97.7 111.2 109.3 113.5 98.6 105.9 114.7 112.2 112.3 127.9 91.1 124.0 105.7 115.6 115.2

110.7 111.1 92.5 103.1 93.7 111.9 112.7 113.9 97.9 125.0 134.4 114.2 112.4 128.0 89.3 131.9 105.2 118.0 119.2

112.6 113.6 92.0 106.4 92.0 116.2 119.0 118.4 97.8 155.0 168.2 116.0 113.4 130.9 88.1 138.8 103.7 121.2 122.3

Forecast 2012 2013

113.9 115.5 91.5 107.9 91.8 119.0 121.8 120.9 98.5 159.4 174.5 118.0 114.7 133.4 90.8 144.1 102.7 123.1 124.7

115.7 117.5 90.9 108.5 92.0 121.3 124.4 122.3 99.2 164.6 179.2 120.3 116.5 136.4 98.9 148.5 101.7 125.0 127.3

2014

117.8 119.7 90.4 109.3 92.3 123.8 126.7 124.5 100.0 164.9 181.2 123.1 118.9 140.2 97.6 153.0 100.9 127.2 130.2

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

27

U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 10. Percent Change in Implicit Price Deflators

Table 10. Percent Change in Implicit Price Deflators History 2006 2007

2003

2004

2005

GDP Consumption Durables Motor Vehicles Furniture

2.1 1.9 -4.0 -3.8 -3.1

3.2 3.0 -0.8 1.6 -0.1

3.5 3.3 -1.2 1.0 -0.4

2.9 1.9 -1.7 -0.6 -0.2

Other Durables Nondurables Food

-1.5 2.1 3.2

-0.1 4.9

0.0 4.4

Clothing & Shoes Gasoline & Oil

-1.6 19.4

2.7 -0.5 28.8

Fuel Services Housing Electricity Natural Gas

21.3 3.2 2.2 3.2 22.2

Water & Sewer Telephone Transportation Other Services

4.6 -1.7 2.6 4.9

Forecast 2012 2013

2008

2009

2010

2011

2014

2.6 3.5 -1.7 0.5 -1.6

2.1 1.8 -1.7 -3.1 0.3

0.5 1.5 -1.0 4.6 -1.9

1.3 1.1 -2.0 2.2 -4.3

1.7 2.5 0.3 4.1 -0.3

1.4 1.6 -0.8 0.4 0.1

1.6 1.8 -0.6 0.5 0.3

1.9 1.9 -0.5 0.9 0.3

3.3 0.5

2.9 6.4

3.7 1.0

1.6 2.8

0.8 2.2

3.7 5.5

2.0 2.2

2.0 2.1

2.0 1.7

1.5 -1.3 31.8

1.7 0.2 -0.8

4.8 -1.2 30.4

6.9 -0.9 4.5

-1.6 1.4 24.1

1.3 -1.3 13.3

4.9 0.6 20.4

1.1 0.7 4.0

1.4 0.7 2.7

1.9 0.8 -1.2

41.6 3.2 2.4 1.8 14.7

32.8 3.8 2.5 10.2 44.7

-0.4 3.1 4.4 8.6 -18.3

28.1 3.5 3.0 5.3 3.5

22.4 2.9 2.7 8.3 19.1

-0.5 1.5 0.9 -0.2 -18.4

16.3 1.3 0.2 0.2 -0.2

24.7 1.9 1.1 3.2 5.1

4.2 1.8 1.3 1.3 7.1

2.5 2.0 1.8 2.7 3.6

0.3 2.4 2.1 2.7 -2.5

5.9 -1.7 1.4 4.4

5.0 0.2 4.9 4.6

4.9 1.3 2.5 4.0

5.2 1.5 3.4 3.3

6.7 2.1 5.9 4.4

6.0 0.8 1.9 3.0

5.8 -0.8 1.4 2.7

5.0 -1.5 3.0 2.6

3.4 -1.0 1.5 2.0

3.0 -1.0 1.6 2.1

3.1 -0.7 1.8 2.4

Table 11. Personal Income and its Components

Table 11. Personal Income and its Components 2003

2004

2005

History 2006 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Forecast 2012 2013

2014

Personal Income

Personal Income Billions Current Dollars 13140.6 13587.6 14163.8 15004.8 9378.2 9937.3 10485.9 11268.1 11912.3 12391.2 12174.9 12541.0

Wages & Salaries Other Labor Income Nonfarm Income Farm Income Rental Income

6382.6 6693.4 7065.1 845.6 874.6 931.6 894.1 984.1 1025.9 36.5 49.7 43.9 204.2 198.4 178.2

7477.0 960.2 1103.6 29.4 146.5

7855.9 980.5 1052.6 37.8 143.7

8060.8 1036.7 1051.2 50.9 222.0

7811.7 1072.0 981.5 30.5 274.0

7984.5 1106.9 1010.1 44.9 300.9

8265.3 1140.4 1059.7 55.7 341.9

8625.5 1188.9 1107.7 56.0 334.7

9001.8 1249.7 1156.8 48.8 285.0

9429.7 1318.1 1223.9 48.3 248.1

Dividends 423.1 548.3 555.0 Interest Income 889.8 860.2 987.0 Transfer Payments 1341.8 1415.5 1508.6 396.5 419.2 445.2 Personal Social Insurance Tax

702.2 1127.5 1605.0 475.1

791.9 1265.1 1718.5 499.6

794.6 1314.7 1879.3 517.1

697.5 1222.3 2132.9 509.7

712.7 1194.9 2296.4 524.7

759.1 1231.9 2363.4 435.3

816.4 1316.6 2437.3 582.8

846.2 1472.4 2539.7 639.7

877.8 1693.9 2718.6 661.0

Percent Change, Annual Rate 5.7 4.0 -1.7 3.0 5.1 2.6 -3.1 2.2 2.1 5.7 3.4 3.2 -4.6 -0.1 -6.6 2.9

4.8 3.5 3.0 4.9

3.4 4.4 4.2 4.5

4.2 4.4 5.1 4.4

5.9 4.8 5.5 5.8

Personal Income Wages & Salaries Other Labor Income Nonfarm Income

3.5 4.4 13.2 2.5

6.0 4.9 3.5 10.1

5.5 5.6 6.5 4.3

7.5 5.8 3.1 7.6

Farm Income Rental Income Dividends Interest Income Transfer Payments

113.5 14.9 14.0 -2.2 4.5

38.7 -9.4 43.3 0.2 6.0

-11.1 -10.9 -0.6 19.4 6.3

-32.7 -23.8 26.8 10.9 6.7

28.3 32.7 7.6 13.7 7.6

38.1 58.7 -3.8 -1.3 10.4

-37.8 7.8 -11.2 -6.8 15.0

47.4 9.1 6.0 -1.1 6.9

27.6 14.6 8.8 5.0 2.0

0.7 -10.1 5.8 9.2 3.6

-12.9 -15.9 2.5 13.3 4.5

-0.9 -10.9 4.6 15.7 7.2

4.2

6.1

5.9

6.7

5.2

1.9

-0.6

3.5

-11.2

49.5

10.3

3.5

Personal Social Insurance Tax 28

U.S. Forecast | July 2011

U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 12. Personal Consumption Expenditures (Current Dollars)

Table 12. Personal Consumption Expenditures (Current Dollars)

2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4

Consumer Expenditures by Type Billions Current Dollars

Consumer spending on… all goods & services

10513.6 10670.9 10771.7 10892.7 11010.6 11108.0 11195.1 11294.0 11400.8 11483.9 11578.0 11673.4 11780.8 11926.5 12066.7 12204.4 12355.6

durable goods

1134.8 1159.0 1151.2 1174.1 1199.2 1212.0 1221.3 1227.2 1245.8 1256.5 1266.7 1272.0 1277.4 1290.7 1305.7 1314.7 1330.6

furniture and appliances information processing equipment motor vehicles and parts other durable goods nondurables clothing & shoes fuel oil & coal gasoline & motor oil

261.4

263.7

267.4

271.8

277.4

280.7

283.5

285.6

287.8

290.5

292.5

295.0

297.1

298.6

299.6

300.5

73.5

74.7

76.1

76.5

77.6

78.2

79.0

79.5

80.3

80.5

81.3

82.5

83.7

84.8

86.2

87.7

301.5 89.2

377.7

388.9

368.9

382.6

395.5

401.3

404.3

405.9

419.6

425.2

429.7

429.2

429.3

436.5

445.3

447.7

456.4

105.1

110.0

114.2

114.7

115.7

116.3

116.9

117.3

118.0

118.5

119.2

119.9

120.5

121.3

122.2

123.1

124.3

2390.8 2469.3 2509.5 2538.6 2569.9 2596.6 2611.5 2641.8 2661.6 2677.7 2697.3 2718.8 2741.7 2765.6 2786.7 2811.4 2837.9 344.3

347.2

349.0

355.1

356.0

357.3

358.2

359.5

360.9

361.0

362.4

364.6

367.1

369.6

372.6

375.7

27.2

30.2

29.5

30.1

30.5

30.8

30.8

30.7

30.7

30.8

30.9

31.0

31.1

31.1

31.0

31.0

378.2 31.0

349.3

392.6

405.6

402.9

410.0

416.0

410.8

423.2

426.1

427.9

430.3

433.4

435.8

434.1

429.0

427.0

426.5

926.1

934.4

942.6

950.7

food

813.8

829.2

842.8

853.3

862.0

870.2

878.2

886.0

892.9

898.8

905.0

911.1

917.9

other nondurable goods

856.2

870.0

882.7

897.2

911.3

922.4

933.6

942.3

951.0

959.3

968.7

978.7

989.8 1004.7 1019.7 1035.2 1051.4

Consumer Expenditures by Type Billions 2005 Dollars Consumer spending on… all goods & services

9422.9 9473.3 9486.8 9557.1 9623.8 9670.1 9716.7 9756.3 9809.3 9838.2 9876.6 9916.1 9961.6 ###### ###### ###### ######

durable goods

1237.2 1264.9 1250.0 1273.8 1303.8 1320.9 1334.0 1342.5 1365.2 1379.3 1392.7 1400.8 1409.0 1425.2 1443.5 1455.5 1475.0

furniture and appliances

284.0

286.6

289.9

295.7

302.3

306.1

308.9

311.0

313.2

316.0

317.9

320.5

322.6

324.0

324.8

325.5

326.5

information processing equipment

126.1

132.9

138.1

142.9

148.9

153.9

159.6

164.9

170.9

176.3

182.7

190.2

198.2

206.0

215.0

224.7

234.8

motor vehicles and parts

364.8

373.5

347.0

355.9

367.1

372.6

375.4

376.1

388.0

392.7

396.4

395.5

395.0

400.9

408.0

409.3

416.2

90.2

92.5

94.8

94.2

94.5

94.6

94.7

94.6

94.8

94.9

95.0

95.2

95.3

95.5

95.8

96.2

96.8

other durable goods nondurables clothing & shoes fuel oil & coal gasoline & motor oil

2097.4 2104.6 2107.7 2125.3 2139.1 2146.4 2153.4 2160.7 2167.0 2169.6 2173.9 2180.0 2186.5 2195.0 2204.3 2214.7 2225.6 353.4

355.8

357.7

362.9

363.2

363.6

363.8

364.6

365.5

365.0

365.8

367.3

369.1

370.7

373.0

375.4

19.3

18.3

17.0

18.2

18.0

17.9

17.7

17.5

17.4

17.4

17.3

17.2

17.2

17.1

17.1

17.1

377.3 17.1

262.3

259.2

256.6

261.0

262.9

262.6

262.7

262.9

263.1

262.7

262.3

262.3

262.0

261.3

260.4

259.9

259.7

food

711.5

714.1

714.2

714.1

718.4

722.5

726.4

731.7

736.0

738.6

741.2

743.7

746.2

749.1

752.3

755.5

758.8

other nondurable goods

757.0

764.9

771.7

778.0

785.3

788.9

792.1

793.4

794.7

795.8

797.8

800.1

803.2

808.9

814.4

820.4

826.9

3.0

Real Consumer Expenditures Annual Growth Rate Consumer spending on… all goods & services

4.0

2.1

0.6

3.0

2.8

1.9

1.9

1.6

2.2

1.2

1.6

1.6

1.8

2.9

2.8

2.7

19.6

9.0

-4.7

7.6

9.4

5.3

3.9

2.6

6.8

4.1

3.9

2.3

2.3

4.6

5.1

3.3

5.4

9.4

3.7

4.5

8.1

8.9

5.0

3.7

2.8

2.8

3.6

2.4

3.3

2.6

1.8

1.0

0.8

1.1

information processing equipment

11.0

21.4

15.8

14.0

16.6

13.6

14.7

13.3

14.7

12.5

14.7

16.4

16.7

15.8

17.4

18.0

17.9

motor vehicles and parts

42.0

9.5

-28.4

10.3

12.5

6.0

3.0

0.8

12.7

4.8

3.8

-1.0

-0.4

5.9

7.1

1.3

6.8

1.0

10.5

9.8

-2.7

1.5

0.3

0.3

-0.2

0.7

0.3

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.7

1.3

1.7

2.2 2.0

durable goods furniture and appliances

other durable goods nondurables clothing & shoes fuel oil & coal gasoline & motor oil

4.1

1.4

0.6

3.3

2.6

1.4

1.3

1.4

1.2

0.5

0.8

1.1

1.2

1.6

1.7

1.9

11.6

2.8

2.1

5.8

0.3

0.5

0.3

0.9

0.9

-0.5

0.9

1.7

1.9

1.7

2.5

2.6

2.0

6.4

-19.3

-28.8

27.6

-3.7

-3.3

-3.8

-3.8

-3.3

-1.1

-1.6

-1.6

-1.1

-0.6

-0.6

-0.1

0.0 -0.3

-7.1

-4.8

-4.0

6.8

3.0

-0.5

0.1

0.4

0.3

-0.6

-0.7

0.1

-0.4

-1.2

-1.4

-0.8

food

4.9

1.5

0.1

-0.1

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.9

2.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.7

1.7

1.8

other nondurable goods

4.9

4.2

3.6

3.3

3.8

1.9

1.6

0.7

0.7

0.5

1.0

1.2

1.5

2.9

2.8

3.0

3.2

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

29

U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 13. Personal Consumption Expenditures (2000 Dollars)

Table 13. Personal Consumption Expenditures (2005 Dollars) History 2003

2004

2005

2006

Forecast 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Consumer Expenditures by Type Billions Current Dollars Consumer spending on… all goods & services

7804.0

8285.1

8819.0

9322.7

9806.3 10104.5 10001.3 10349.0

durable goods

1014.8

1061.6

1105.5

1133.0

1159.4

1083.5

1026.5

1089.4

1170.9

1226.6

1268.2

1310.5

233.3

249.2

263.9

276.5

277.7

266.0

248.1

258.3

270.1

284.4

293.8

300.1

furniture and appliances information processing equipment motor vehicles and parts other durable goods nondurables clothing & shoes fuel oil & coal

10836.5 11249.5 11629.0 12138.3

46.6

51.5

55.9

60.4

65.6

65.8

64.7

71.2

76.3

79.2

82.0

87.0

401.5

404.7

409.6

397.1

402.5

343.2

319.7

346.0

384.0

407.7

428.3

446.5

82.4

87.0

90.4

95.7

99.6

98.3

97.2

103.3

113.6

117.1

119.5

122.7

1712.6

1830.7

1968.4

2088.7

2198.2

2296.0

2204.2

2336.3

2521.8

2627.9

2708.9

2800.4

287.0

300.0

315.5

330.1

338.9

334.1

322.2

337.8

351.8

359.0

363.8

374.0

16.8

18.4

21.0

22.3

23.6

28.1

22.9

25.7

30.1

30.8

30.9

31.0

gasoline & motor oil

192.8

231.6

283.8

314.7

343.0

383.3

280.8

331.5

402.8

419.0

431.8

429.2

food

593.1

628.2

665.0

698.0

737.4

775.2

777.9

801.8

846.8

881.8

908.2

938.4

other nondurable goods

622.9

652.6

683.0

723.7

755.3

775.4

800.4

839.5

890.3

937.3

974.1

1027.7

Consumer Expenditures by Type Billions 2005 Dollars Consumer spending on… all goods & services

8247.6

8532.7

8819.0

9073.5

9289.5

9265.0

9153.9

9313.6

9535.3

9738.1

9898.1 10140.8

durable goods

986.1

1051.0

1105.5

1150.4

1198.5

1136.4

1094.6

1178.3

1273.1

1340.7

1395.4

1449.8

furniture and appliances

230.6

249.3

263.9

277.9

281.5

271.4

253.9

275.8

293.6

309.8

319.2

325.2

information processing equipment motor vehicles and parts other durable goods nondurables clothing & shoes fuel oil & coal

36.0

44.8

55.9

69.2

83.0

92.3

101.2

119.8

140.7

162.3

186.9

220.1

405.3

411.3

409.6

396.6

403.9

348.2

324.0

335.4

360.9

378.0

394.9

408.6

79.4

84.7

90.4

94.1

93.3

87.9

85.6

89.9

94.0

94.7

95.1

96.1

1845.6

1904.6

1968.4

2023.6

2064.3

2041.2

2017.4

2072.6

2119.2

2156.9

2177.5

2209.9

283.4

297.3

315.5

331.5

343.8

341.7

326.8

345.0

359.9

364.4

366.8

374.1

26.2

24.6

21.0

19.5

19.1

16.8

20.0

19.2

17.9

17.6

17.3

17.1

gasoline & motor oil

276.3

282.1

283.8

278.9

276.8

265.3

265.3

265.2

259.9

262.8

262.3

260.3

food

622.4

639.2

665.0

686.2

697.5

691.6

685.1

703.7

715.2

729.1

742.4

753.9

other nondurable goods

640.1

662.6

683.0

708.4

729.5

731.3

723.1

744.2

775.0

792.3

799.2

817.7

Real Consumer Expenditures Annual Growth Rate Consumer spending on… all goods & services

3.4

3.5

2.7

3.3

1.8

-1.9

0.2

2.6

2.1

1.9

1.6

2.9

durable goods

9.2

5.5

2.4

6.5

3.9

-12.0

5.2

11.1

5.6

4.7

3.2

4.7

furniture and appliances information processing equipment

9.4

6.1

6.8

2.6

1.2

-7.8

0.4

9.6

6.5

3.6

3.0

1.2

30.1

21.4

25.1

22.5

20.4

5.2

15.3

17.1

18.1

14.8

16.0

18.5

motor vehicles and parts

5.9

1.7

-6.6

5.8

0.6

-23.2

7.4

14.7

2.0

5.8

1.8

5.4

other durable goods

9.1

4.2

6.8

1.2

1.0

-12.3

5.1

5.1

5.0

0.3

0.6

1.5

nondurables

4.0

3.0

3.3

3.2

0.8

-2.9

1.1

3.2

2.0

1.3

0.9

1.8

clothing & shoes

5.6

5.1

7.4

3.9

2.2

-3.7

-0.3

7.4

2.8

0.6

1.0

2.2

fuel oil & coal

1.7

-15.6

-16.2

6.1

-8.8

12.6

11.6

-3.0

-4.2

-3.5

-1.4

-0.3

gasoline & motor oil

4.8

0.7

-0.6

-0.4

-1.8

-3.8

-0.1

-0.3

0.3

0.1

-0.4

-0.9

food

1.6

3.9

4.2

3.4

0.8

-3.9

3.2

2.2

1.0

2.4

1.4

1.7

other nondurable goods

5.6

2.7

2.9

4.4

1.6

-0.9

0.0

4.3

3.7

1.2

1.1

3.0

30

U.S. Forecast | July 2011

U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 14. Business Fixed Investment

Table 14. Business Fixed Investment History

2003

2004

2005

2006

Forecast

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Billions Current Dollars Business Fixed Investment

1135.7 1223.0 1347.3 1505.3 1637.5 1665.3 1364.4 1415.4

1550.3 1678.6 1764.7 1918.8

Producers Dur. Equipment

853.8

916.4

995.6 1071.7 1112.6 1082.9

912.8 1031.8

Nonresidential Structures

281.9

306.7

351.8

433.7

524.9

582.4

451.6

383.5

395.7

391.4

421.3

481.2

Non-Farm Buildings

182.1

196.7

212.9

247.6

297.3

322.0

256.3

176.2

156.3

166.9

204.5

263.9

94.6

104.3

112.9

128.4

150.8

149.1

96.5

64.3

59.1

61.9

70.9

103.3

Commercial

1154.7 1287.2 1343.4 1437.7

Industrial

21.4

23.7

29.9

35.1

43.7

57.4

63.1

41.8

35.8

38.6

53.1

63.1

Other Buildings

66.0

68.7

70.2

84.1

102.8

115.6

96.8

70.1

61.3

66.4

80.6

97.6

Utilities

53.5

48.6

51.4

61.1

85.6

99.5

100.0

92.0

91.4

86.2

87.5

96.0

Mines & Wells

38.4

51.9

77.1

114.2

130.9

147.9

85.0

105.8

138.7

129.3

120.6

112.8

Billions 2005 Dollars Business Fixed Investment

1191.0 1263.0 1347.3 1453.9 1552.0 1556.6 1290.8 1365.0

1472.1 1579.9 1664.5 1798.0

Producers Dur. Equipment

851.4

917.3

995.6 1069.6 1109.0 1082.0

916.3 1056.1

Nonresidential Structures

343.0

346.7

351.8

384.0

438.2

464.2

369.6

319.0

1173.9 1301.4 1366.5 1461.8 316.1

306.9

326.8

363.8

Non-Farm Buildings

210.0

213.9

212.9

229.2

260.5

272.0

216.1

153.4

133.7

137.2

161.4

199.0

Commercial

110.3

114.4

112.9

118.4

131.2

124.5

79.2

54.5

49.3

49.8

54.9

76.5

Industrial

24.3

25.5

29.9

33.0

39.0

48.5

52.2

35.4

29.7

30.1

39.5

44.7

Other Buildings

75.4

74.1

70.2

77.9

90.3

99.3

85.3

64.2

55.3

57.9

67.6

78.4

Utilities

61.3

52.1

51.4

56.2

75.6

82.5

83.7

76.1

72.7

67.5

67.2

71.7

Mines & Wells

60.0

69.9

77.1

88.3

93.6

99.7

64.3

81.4

99.1

92.6

90.1

85.6

-15.2

10.4

10.9

5.6

6.0

8.9

Annual Growth Rate Business Fixed Investment

6.2

9.5

8.4

11.7

9.0

-5.2

Producers Dur. Equipment

6.7

8.5

6.3

6.9

3.5

-10.0

-5.3

15.6

13.7

8.5

3.9

6.9

Nonresidential Structures

4.8

12.6

14.9

25.2

22.0

4.7

-31.7

-1.1

3.6

-3.3

13.2

15.3

Non-Farm Buildings

3.8

10.8

7.3

18.7

22.6

-0.1

-32.0

-23.3

-2.5

10.1

29.0

28.7

Commercial

4.3

9.3

10.0

15.3

17.3

-11.8

-43.4

-21.3

-1.2

2.3

32.9

48.8

Industrial

9.1

30.4

13.8

16.1

46.6

23.0

-8.6

-33.2

4.4

16.7

37.0

13.2

Other Buildings

2.5

9.2

1.7

26.0

22.6

6.7

-29.1

-18.3

-7.1

15.6

21.8

20.7

Utilities

-3.7

5.5

3.8

23.9

54.9

0.8

1.3

9.1

-9.0

-4.8

5.4

10.8

Mines & Wells

29.4

38.0

51.3

50.0

4.8

22.5

-44.9

64.5

23.7

-16.6

-2.2

-5.9

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

31

U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 15. Government Receipts and Expenditures

Table 15. Government Receipts and Expenditures History

Forecast

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

1885.1

2014.0

2290.1

2524.5

2654.7

2503.1

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2385.2

2505.2

2809.1

3189.5

3417.0

Federal Government Receipts and Expenditures Receipts

2205.8

Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts

774.2

799.2

931.9

1049.9

1165.6

1102.8

852.7

874.6

1020.9

1112.0

1314.9

1436.8

Corp. Profits Tax Accruals

197.8

250.3

341.0

395.0

362.8

232.2

182.1

304.3

337.5

377.6

471.1

507.4

89.3

94.3

98.8

99.4

94.5

96.0

94.4

106.6

109.9

112.7

117.3

133.7

762.8

807.6

852.6

904.6

945.3

972.4

953.5

986.3

918.1

1088.1

1167.6

1215.2

Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Contributions for Social Insurance

2261.5

2393.4

2573.1

2728.3

2900.0

3119.3

3457.5

3718.7

3757.2

3783.4

3921.8

4155.4

Purchases Goods & Services

Expenditures

756.5

824.7

876.3

931.7

976.4

1079.9

1139.6

1214.3

1235.3

1220.8

1200.4

1196.7

National Defense

498.0

550.8

589.1

624.9

662.3

737.3

771.6

817.7

827.9

811.5

792.4

788.1

Other

258.6

273.9

287.3

306.9

314.1

342.5

368.0

396.6

407.3

409.2

408.0

408.7

1339.4

1405.1

1491.3

1587.1

1690.5

1843.7

2157.5

2328.3

2319.6

2334.0

2411.8

2564.7

962.6

1014.3

1078.0

1180.7

1254.2

1387.4

1604.7

1724.3

1753.2

1793.3

1855.3

1941.2

28.6

30.9

40.9

35.0

42.2

44.8

52.7

58.2

55.8

55.7

56.6

57.6

Grants in Aid to State & Local Gov't

338.0

349.2

361.2

359.0

380.8

396.2

484.6

529.6

493.7

467.8

482.2

547.9

Net Interest

196.5

204.6

239.0

261.0

291.0

270.1

231.3

263.9

288.1

313.7

392.2

477.4

45.3

45.7

64.1

53.9

50.2

53.5

63.1

61.7

61.1

53.2

49.9

49.1

Surplus (+) or Deficit (-)

-376.4

-379.5

-283.0

-203.8

-245.2

-616.3 -1251.8 -1333.5

-1252.0

-974.3

-732.3

-738.3

Receipts

1496.3

1601.0

1730.5

1829.7

1923.1

1967.2

2005.8

2128.1

2167.9

2198.6

2280.6

2420.6

Personal Tax/Nontax Receipts

977.7

1059.4

1163.1

1249.1

1313.6

1332.6

1267.0

1331.2

1393.1

1435.5

1488.4

1548.1

Corporate Profits

363.7

Transfer Payments To Persons To Foreigners

Subsidies less Surplus of Gov't Entities

State and Local Government Receipts and Expenditures

226.2

248.6

276.7

302.5

323.1

335.4

287.3

291.7

316.4

329.2

342.3

Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals

34.0

41.7

55.0

59.1

57.8

48.0

49.4

87.6

83.0

78.7

87.4

91.8

Contributions for Social Insurance

20.1

24.1

24.8

21.8

18.9

19.7

21.6

22.4

23.1

24.2

25.3

26.5

338.0

349.2

361.2

359.0

380.8

396.2

484.6

529.6

493.7

467.8

482.2

547.9

Federal Grants-In-Aid Expenditures

1535.13 1609.33 1704.50 1778.63 1910.83 2014.58 2025.90 2095.23

2156.90 2190.14 2268.43 2412.87

Purchases Goods & Services

1356.1

1408.2

1493.6

1586.7

1697.9

1798.5

1775.4

1786.0

1789.9

1787.5

1821.9

Government Social Benefits

353.4

384.3

404.8

402.9

433.7

455.2

492.1

534.7

572.1

605.0

644.3

734.3

353.4

384.3

404.8

402.9

433.7

455.2

492.1

534.7

572.1

605.0

644.3

734.3

Interest Received

20.6

19.0

10.9

2.1

0.5

8.8

9.2

12.9

16.1

16.3

23.7

27.1

Net Subsidies

-3.2

-0.6

0.3

1.7

16.2

16.0

10.4

10.6

9.4

7.2

5.2

4.1

1.7

2.0

2.1

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.7

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.2

Transfer Payments

Dividends Received Net Wage Accruals Surplus (+) or Deficit (-)

32

U.S. Forecast | July 2011

1885.7

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

-38.8

-8.4

26.0

51.0

12.2

-47.4

-20.1

32.9

11.0

8.5

12.2

7.7

U . S . F o r eca s t Tab l e s Table 16. U.S. Exports and Imports of Goods and Services

Table 16. U.S. Exports and Imports of Goods and Services History

Forecast

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

-504.1

-618.7

-722.7

-769.3

-714.0

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

-516.4

-545.6

-551.3

-479.3

-444.3

Billions of Dollars Net Exports Goods & Services

-710.5

-386.4

Current Account

-519.1

-628.5

-745.8

-800.6

-710.3

-677.1

-376.6

-470.9

-451.7

-468.8

-456.4

-483.5

Exports -Goods & Services

1041.0

1180.2

1305.1

1471.1

1661.7

1843.4

1578.4

1837.6

2119.4

2342.8

2563.8

2798.4

Merchandise Balance

-540.4

-663.5

-780.7

-835.7

-818.9

-830.1

-505.9

-645.9

-721.3

-741.0

-677.3

-652.2

Food, Feed & Beverage

55.03

56.55

58.95

65.98

84.28

108.38

93.90

105.45

130.96

128.77

134.10

140.07

Industrial Supplies Excl Petroleum

168.3

199.5

227.5

267.3

316.2

386.9

293.7

387.5

506.0

549.4

588.9

628.6

Motor Vehicles & Parts Capital Goods, Excl. MVP Computer Equipment Other

80.7

89.2

98.4

107.3

121.3

121.4

81.7

112.0

133.0

168.6

183.7

198.6

293.7

327.6

358.4

404.1

433.0

457.7

390.5

446.2

494.2

560.2

648.7

742.6

39.9

42.8

45.5

47.6

45.6

43.9

37.7

43.9

52.7

63.7

70.0

77.4

207.1

238.7

257.0

291.9

314.5

339.8

278.0

330.1

364.8

407.5

474.3

547.5

Consumer Goods, Excl. MVP

89.9

103.3

115.3

129.1

146.0

161.3

150.0

165.7

179.7

207.1

235.4

262.7

Other Consumer

39.4

41.0

47.5

50.8

61.3

59.4

53.2

60.6

70.8

76.8

82.2

87.7

314.2

363.3

399.0

446.7

499.7

548.3

515.3

560.1

604.7

651.9

690.8

738.0

Imports -Goods & Services

1545.2

1798.9

2027.8

2240.4

2375.7

2553.8

1964.8

2353.9

2664.9

2894.1

3043.1

3242.7

Merchandise

1289.3

1501.7

1708.0

1884.9

2001.6

2148.8

1587.8

1949.4

2234.3

2430.2

2547.3

2708.8

Services

Billions of Dollars

55.8

62.1

68.1

75.0

81.7

89.0

81.6

91.8

106.4

107.2

107.5

112.1

Petroleum & Products

Food, Feed & Beverage

133.1

180.5

251.9

302.5

347.6

477.6

267.4

355.3

444.0

491.7

514.2

519.6

Industrial Supplies Excl Petroleum

175.7

226.4

266.0

291.4

295.7

316.5

195.2

248.9

294.8

293.4

319.5

353.5

Motor Vehicles & Parts

210.1

228.2

239.5

256.6

256.6

231.2

157.6

225.3

236.3

274.6

291.1

311.7

Capital Goods, Excl. MVP

296.4

344.5

380.8

420.0

446.0

455.2

369.7

449.2

518.4

565.7

584.1

634.8

76.5

88.6

93.3

101.4

105.2

100.9

93.9

117.4

119.6

129.7

137.1

147.2

Computer Equipment Other

195.8

231.6

261.7

290.2

306.5

318.9

245.3

300.5

364.9

397.6

404.2

440.6

Consumer Goods, Excl. MVP

337.7

377.2

411.5

446.1

478.2

484.7

430.7

485.3

541.0

597.1

618.9

653.3

80.5

82.9

90.3

93.5

95.9

94.5

85.6

93.7

93.3

100.5

112.1

123.9

255.9

297.3

319.8

355.4

374.0

405.0

377.0

404.6

430.7

463.9

495.8

533.8

Net Exports Goods & Services

-604.0

-688.0

-722.7

-729.2

-654.9

-504.1

-363.0

-422.5

-365.4

-306.3

-237.8

-193.5

Exports G & S

1116.8

1222.8

1305.1

1422.1

1554.4

1647.7

1490.7

1665.5

1807.4

1976.2

2141.0

2311.6

Imports G & S

1720.7

1910.8

2027.8

2151.2

2209.3

2151.8

1853.8

2088.1

2172.9

2282.5

2378.8

2505.1

Exports G & S

9.0

11.7

10.3

14.0

14.6

0.0

2.8

14.0

14.6

10.1

9.1

9.3

Imports G & S

8.0

19.1

12.1

5.4

9.1

-2.1

-0.3

14.8

15.8

5.7

5.6

6.3

Other Consumer Services

Billions 2005 Dollars

Exports & Imports % Change

Real Exports G & S

6.6

7.1

6.8

10.4

10.2

-2.0

1.9

9.0

9.1

9.0

8.0

8.2

Real Imports G & S

5.4

11.0

5.2

4.2

0.9

-5.4

-4.8

12.2

5.9

3.9

4.5

5.1

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

33

In Appeciation

The UCF College of Business Administration would like to thank Alan C. Charron, ‘84, for his generous gift to the Institute for Economic Competitiveness. His support enables the Institute to publish this forecast and will help fund future activities and research. Charron graduated in 1984 with a degree in finance.

He is president of Real Property Specialists, Inc., located in Orlando, Florida.

Founded in 1992, Real Property Specialists, Inc., is a fullservice brokerage company that has built a reputation of providing highly personalized service while being responsive and flexible to its clients' individual needs. They offer a range of commercial real estate services in the Central Florida area including brokerage, appraisal, development, property management and tenant representation.

Real Property Specialists, Inc., has set a new standard of excellence in client service by providing these key advantages over the competition:

Responsiveness. You work directly with a decision

maker who has the flexibility to immediately attend to your needs.

Consistency. We are a unified firm employing team-

members who are committed to the success of our clients.

We pride ourselves on our ability to maintain a dedicated, professional staff that is able to build long-term, comfortable and prosperous relationships with our clients.

Accountability. At Real Property Specialists, our client is the real "Boss." We are accountable to no one other than the client. No company policy interferes with our ability to serve the individual needs of each client.

Experience. The staff at Real Property Specialists is

highly qualified, with most associates having more than a decade of experience in the industry. Our personal portfolio of shopping centers gives us first-hand knowledge of what is important when leasing, managing or selling a property.

Appraisers • Brokers • Consultants 6700 Conroy-Windermere Road, Suite 230 | Orlando, FL 32835 407.291.9000 | www.realpropertyspecialists.com

Director, Institute for Economic Competitiveness.

Ph.D., Pennsylvania State University 1996; M.A., Pennsylvania State University 1994; B.S., Allegheny College 1989.

Sea n M . S n ai t h , P h . D .

We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness:

Sean Snaith, Ph.D., is the Director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness within the College of Business Administration at the University of Central Florida and is a widely recognized economist in the field of business and economic forecasting.

As an award-winning forecaster, researcher, and professor, Snaith is always interested in the application of academic expertise to the solution of real world problems.

Snaith has served as a consultant for a client list ranging from local and regional municipalities to multi-national corporations, including Compaq, Dell and IBM. He has held teaching positions at Pennsylvania State University, American University in Cairo, University of North Dakota and University of the Pacific.

Snaith frequently appears in national and regional media and is sought after as a speaker. He has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, the New York Times, and the Chicago Tribune and has appeared on CNBC and Fox Business Channel. Known for his engaging presentations, one business editor wrote, “Snaith (has) an uncanny knack of making economics not only understandable but interesting.”

Snaith is a member of several economic organizations and national economic forecasting panels including USA Today’s Survey of Top Economists, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, Bloomberg, Reuters and the Livingston Survey.

In 2007 he was named California’s most accurate forecaster by the Western Blue Chip Consensus Forecast, besting UCLA, Wells Fargo and other esteemed forecasting groups. Snaith holds a B.S. in Economics from Allegheny College and an M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from Pennsylvania State University.

Snaith was recently named by Bloomberg News as one of the nation’s most accurate forecasters and was one of just two academic economists making the list which was released in the December 2008 issue of Bloomberg Markets.

For more information Sean Snaith, Director Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida P.O. Box 161400 Orlando, FL 32816 PH: 407.823.1451 FAX: 407.823.1454 E-MAIL: ssnaith@bus.ucf.edu www.iec.ucf.edu

University of Central Florida College of Business Administration Institute for Economic Competitiveness P. O . B o x 1 6 1 4 0 0 , O r l a n d o , F l o r i d a 3 2 8 1 6 P H 4 0 7. 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 3

FA X 4 0 7. 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 4

w w w. i e c . u c f. e d u