Risk assessment

Analysis:

• Several studies, such as topography and geographical location analysis, proximity to the sea, weather pattern analysis, climate change analysis, flood mapping, etc., are used to understand the risk.

Vulnerability:

• Nyhavna, being in very close proximity to the sea, is highly prone to flooding due to sea level rise, and its flat elevation increases its vulnerability even more

• Inconsistent weather patterns, including rain throughout the year and snow in long, cold winter

• Its current land use of being an industrial zone with waste landfills makes the ground surface prone to toxins

• The impermeable and hard surface characteristics prevent water infiltration into the ground, increasing runoff and flood risk

Potential Impact:

• Storm surge, in addition to cold weather and the usual rain

• Property damage

• Infrastructure damage: such as roads, bridges, and water treatment facilities, leads to extended power outages and repair times.

• Health impacts with the remobilization of pollutants and toxic chemicals.

• Economic disruption

• Displacement of people

• Environmental impacts: erosion, damage to ecosystems, and harm to wildlife, leading to long-term ecological damage.

Flood risks

Due to its coastal location and low elevation, some parts of Nyhavna are already today prone to flooding if water levels rise to unusually high levels. In Norway, coastal flooding often occurs during astronomical tide, combined with strong winds and low air pressure (Meteorologisk institutt, 2021). As low-pressure systems are at their strongest during the winter, flooding is also more common at that time of year. Figure 11 shows the current 1,000-year flood scenario, meaning that there is a likelihood of 1/1,000 of a flood at that magnitude occurring in a given year. In this scenario, inner parts of Nyhavna are affected, especially around Dora I and Dora II, not posing a major threat to the area as a whole. However, as the sea level will rise in the future, flooding will become more likely. In figure 12, a 1,000-year storm surge scenario for 2090 is visualized. Here, large parts of the western peninsula in Nyhavna, in addition to the area along Nidelva is covered by water. This increasing flood threat has to be taken into account in the urban design of Nyhavna.

Estimation and prioritization:

• It is difficult to estimate the damage given the situation of the event to be in the future and on a land that is to be renovated completely, changing from industrial to mixed used zone. The estimations are based on assumptions following previous trend and case studies.

• Immediate response for the lives and well-being of the inhabitants are to be prioritized over property damage and development.

SWOT analysis

SWOT analysis is conducted for a concise summary of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats associated with the contingency plan for flood risk in the given scenario. This provides a clear understanding that leads to the framework of a contin- gency plan. Through the SWOT analysis, it can be observed that the weakness of the context works as a guideline for choosing strategies to deal with threats by opening up opportunities backed up by strength