conducted under the country programme were at project level, and evidence on progress towards outcomes was not available. Some project evaluations and the 2020 country programme midterm review, as well as existing IEO documentation, helped to bridge information gaps to some extent.6
1.4 National development context This section summarizes the external context within which the country programme was implemented, highlighting changes in the last decade. Nigeria has played a leadership role in Africa since the 1960s, uniting and galvanizing the continent in the lead up to the creation of the African Union in 1963 (formally the Organization of African Unity) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in 1975. As Africa’s largest economy (26th in the world), and most populous country with an estimated 206 million people, Nigeria continues to be a regional power and important for Africa’s growth and integration into the global economy.7 It is a diverse country with many assets, including abundant natural resources,8 a young population,9 a vibrant private sector, large domestic market and growing digital transformation, but it faces complex interwoven political, socioeconomic and security challenges from its colonial legacy and subsequent sociopolitical instability. Home to over 250 ethnic groups, Nigeria’s ethnic, religious and regional diversity and plurality, as well as economic grievances, have been identified as key determinants of its electoral democracy and conflict dynamics. Nigeria is a federal State.10 The economy is dependent on oil, and was recovering from a 2016 recession when COVID‑19 hit with a further impact on the price of oil, which generates about two‑thirds of government revenue. COVID‑19 cases and deaths have been relatively low in Nigeria (214,113 cases and 2,976 deaths as of 30 November 2021), but the socioeconomic impact was significant.11 Lockdowns disrupted the country’s trade and financial sectors, causing job losses in the formal and informal markets. The Federal Government introduced policy measures to mitigate the impact, but it is expected that the pandemic will set back progress towards the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which is lagging, with major challenges to achieving 13 of the 17 SDG goals by 2030.12 Political and governance context. Systemic challenges such as maintaining law and order, combined with weaknesses in the judiciary, access to justice and legislative oversight, continue to limit opportunities for full transformation of governance in Nigeria. Mass protests in 2020 against police brutality and poor governance were a manifestation of governance deficits. At the grassroots, civil society could be a strong, influential and credible source of pressure for reform, but its capacity to facilitate communication between citizens and policymakers is weakened by poor internal governance and shrinking space for engagement.13 Since the re‑emergence of democratic rule in 1999, Nigeria has achieved some success in democratic governance, conducting five general elections (2003, 2007, 2011, 2015 and 2019). Despite this progress, Nigeria’s Vision 20:2020 recognized the country’s challenges in conducting free and fair elections.
6
7 8 9
10 11 12
13
UNDP Nigeria was a country case study in the Evaluation of UNDP Development Cooperation with Middle‑income Countries in 2020. World Bank: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=NG. 2020. Nigeria is the largest oil and gas producer in Africa and has large deposits of other resources. 74 percent of the population is 35 years old and below (National Youth Survey 2020, Ministry of Youth and Sports Development and National Bureau Statistics). The country is comprised of 36 states, the FCT, and 774 LGAs. National Center for Disease Control: https://covid19.ncdc.gov.ng. These policy measures include a fiscal stimulus package, humanitarian and social support to poor and vulnerable populations, support to MSMEs, and healthcare loans. Mathew T. Page (2021) Fake Civil Society: The Rise of Pro‑Government NGOs in Nigeria. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Working Paper. Temitope O. Songonuga (2015) Civil Society in Nigeria: Reasons for Ineffectiveness.
Chapter 1. BACKGROUND AND introduction
6
