“Foresight does not allow us to predict the future. It helps us explore possibilities for what might lie ahead, understand and express our biases and perceptions about the future, and provides outlets to articulate the preferred values, behaviors, and structures we can and must create here and now to build the future we want.” “In light of the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead, Tonga must find ways of moving from a Small Island Vulnerability perspective to a ‘Big Ocean Prosperity’ future. If Tonga is going to navigate this transition, it must prepare now for the challenges and opportunities of tomorrow, which requires deliberate and thoughtful action today.” Honorable Prime Minister, Lord Tu‘ivakano Kingdom of Tonga
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2014 Tonga foresightXchange Report 1. Introduction 2. Public Event 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Agenda 2.3 Session Overviews 2.4 Media coverage
3. Cabinet Retreat 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Session Overview
4. SIDS Conference Side Event
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Introduction The Tonga foresightXchange was a joint venture between the UNDPĘťs Global Centre for Public Service Excellence and the Government of Tonga. All events were designed in collaboration with the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies and the Centre for Postnormal Policy and Futures Studies. The 2014 Tonga foresightXchange consisted of three events: 1) a public futures envisioning workshop held on 19 August 2014; 2) private foresight retreat for the Government of Tonga held on 22 August 2014; and 3) a side event at the Third United Nations Small Island Developing States conference on 1 September 2014.
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foresightXchange
Public Event – 19 August 2014 - Nuku’alofa, Tonga 25
Public Event 19 August 2014
Over 100 people participated in the 2014 Tonga foresightXchange. This public event utilized a range of foresight methods to engender dialogue and generate insights for Tonga’s next Strategic Development Plan 2015-2018. Participants were asked to imagine Tonga’s transition from a “Small Island Vulnerability” to a “Big Ocean Prosperity” future. To envision this change, participants used the foresight eXplorer to imagine their preferred values, behaviors, and structures for Tonga’s future (see page 10 for details). After using the foresight eXplorer, participants created and shared “Voices from Tonga’s Big Ocean Prosperity Future.” Local artists attended the event and created pieces based on what they heard from participants throughout the day.
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Public Event - Agenda 9:00am – Official Opening Opening prayer: Rev. Tu’inauvai ’Asaeli Welcoming remarks: Mr. ‘Aholotu Palu, Acting Chief Secretary & Secretary to Cabinet Special remarks: Mr. Peter van de Pol, Advisor, UNDP Keynote address: Honorable Prime Minister, Lord Tu’ivakano Vote of thanks: Mr. Va’inga Tone, Secretary of Foreign Affairs and Trade
10:30am – Intro to Strategic Foresight & Futures Literacy Participants will learn the core concepts of strategic foresight and futures literacy placed in the context of local regional and global trends and emerging issues impacting Tonga’s future.
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11:00am – What is Tonga’s Big Ocean Prosperity future? Participants will use the foresight eXplorer to model their preferred values, behaviors, and structures for Tonga’s future.
2:30pm – Voices from Tonga’s Big Ocean Prosperity Future Participants will create characters to give voice to Tonga’s future. These characters will have a conversation with voices from the present to understand how Tonga made the transition from “Small Island Vulnerability” to “Big Ocean Prosperity.”
4:00pm – Group reports and artist presentations 5:00pm – Closing remarks John A. Sweeney, Deputy Director, Centre for Postnormal Policy and Futures Studies Lord Fakafanua, Speaker of the Tongan Legislative Assembly
Session Overview Introduction to Strategic Foresight and Futures Literacy As part of the session introducing strategic foresight and futures literacy, participants were asked to give three adjectives that describe the future. Participants were not given a particular time horizon for this exercise, and a word cloud was generated from their responses and displayed at the end of the event. The word cloud (see next page) makes repeated words appear larger. Another introductory exercise asked participants to identify which metaphor best expressed their sense of the future. As is often the case, most chose “sailing on the ocean,” which signals an openness to uncertainty—one of the key concepts of futures literacy. Additionally, participants were given examples of technological, social, and environmental changes from a futures’ perspective. 8
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Session overview What is Tonga’s Big Ocean Prosperity Future?
The foresight eXplorer is a collaborative gaming system that helped participants imagine their preferred values, behaviors, and structures for Tonga’s future. Participants could either select pre-defined cards or enter their own content in each category. Many participants chose to create content, especially values, in Tongan. After connecting values (beliefs), behaviors (actions), and structures (institutions and systems), the foresight eXplorer asked participants to envision both challenges and opportunities for Tonga’s future.
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Additionally, participants were asked to identify wild cards, or high-impact events that might seem unlikely, and then build off these events using additional values, behaviors, and structures cards. Each group was given basic instructions on how to use the foresight eXplorer in order to encourage creativity during the foresight eXplorer’s first-ever prototyping session.
Seven diverse groups composed of students, teachers, civic leaders, public servants, and community members created scenarios for Tonga’s “Big Ocean Prosperity” Future using the foresight eXplorer.
Commonly repeated values included: family, tradition, culture, integrity, freedom, and democracy.
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Each group worked at their own pace during the hour and a half session, and facilitators emphasized the first scenario building stage: values, behaviors, and structures.
All of the seven groups placed both the challenges and opportunities, but only three groups created and placed wild cards. fatu'anga 'oe sosaieti 'ulungaanga
sino pe fa'unga fakasosaieti
fakafe'atungia faingamalie
peau tupukoso
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Each group was given a few minutes to provide a brief overview of their scenario, and each group emphasized different aspects of the scenario building process.
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Report back Snapshot Group #4 focused the values of democracy, health, tradition, integrity, honesty, prosperity, family, religion and decolonization. Around these values, they placed the following behaviors: observe holy days, kava ceremony, sports & exercise, following laws, child rearing, job creation, giftgiving, policy making, inter-island commerce.
Around these behaviors, they placed the following structures: education, healthcare, parliament, military, government ministry, Internet and telecom, Executive branch, land tenure, tourism, community council, monarchy, judiciary, and education. Around these structures, they placed the following challenges: sea-level rise inequality, cultural change, extreme weather, energy dependent, corruption, economic downturn, aging infrastructure, resource scarcity, brain drain / migration. Around these challenges, they placed the following opportunities: self sufficiency, prosperity, shifting gender roles, security, equality, research, innovation, work & life. Group #4 also came up with the following wild cards: civil war, epidemic, strike, and tsunami.
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Session overview Voices from Tonga’s Big Ocean Prosperity Future Groups were provided with a worksheet and general instructions on how to develop “Voices from Tonga’s Big Ocean Prosperity Future” based on the scenarios they created using the foresight eXplorer. In creating a perspective from which to give more depth to their preferred scenario for Tonga’s future, participants were asked to imagine specific details about a day in the life of someone living in their scenario for Tonga’s Big Ocean Prosperity future. Additionally, they were asked to give insights into how this person defined prosperity and, perhaps most importantly, overcame the challenges and took advantage of the opportunities they imagined. The stories developed by participants varied widely, and some groups focused more on the circumstances of the scenario rather than an individual’s experience.
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Report back Snapshot
“Meleana’s 100th Birthday” A Voice from Tonga’s Big Ocean Prosperity Future Meleana shared her group’s voice from Tonga’s Big Ocean Prosperity future. Actually, it was her own. th Meleana told the story of celebrating her 100 birthday in Tonga’s future.
She explained looking out from her veranda upon the rooftops of Old Nuku’alofa as the old city was overcome by sea-level rise. While she is tired, Meleana is also strong and healthy. After finishing church, she is excited to see her 14 children and 55 grandchildren and to celebrate her special day among family and friends. For Meleana, prosperity is more than just financial security; her family, health, and happiness are what gives her a sense of prosperity in Tonga’s Big Ocean Prosperity future, and her group clearly emphasized both the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.
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Session overview Artistic Imaginings of Tonga’s Futures
In the spirit of capturing the imaginative aspect of the foresightXchange, local artists were commissioned to craft pieces based on their perspective. Rather than just having them visualizing the scenarios, the artists had the creative license and produce pieces based on their point of view.
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Weaving a Good Future Taniela Petelo (2014) “The woman with her back turned represents Tonga. Her back is the past. Her face appears small, that is our view to the future; it appears blurry, the future appears that way, based on the government’s plans. The olive leaves symbolises living in peace and the steps represents the vision for the country’s future. The triangle and the circle which are clothed by the mat was taken from the idea of the family tree, which represents both male and female who are responsible for the peaceful co-existence of the family. The woman’s attire represents culture and tradition, which includes religion, education and also democracy, which is how the country is run at present.
If these things continue to operate in harmony, there will be development and the visions for Tonga’s future will be realised." 19
It’s Raining Crosses Sione Moala (2014) “Praying should always be number one in everything and should not be replaced by anything. Churches should work closely with, and they should have a representative to, the parliament. Food consumption should change so that we become healthier and live for longer. Government departments should encourage growing of fruits and vegetables. Ministry of Health should encourage daily exercises with TV and radio promotions.
The designs portrayed represents the hope that the Tongan culture will be preserved. We should work hand in hand with other faiths for a peaceful Tonga."
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Untitled “This family aims to have a future that results in their progress. This will be based on the home and the family. The parents will still be obligated to teach their children and they are responsible for the discipline of their children and should encourage and support the development of their talents in education, sport and any other past time that they may have but which is beneficial and important for the future.
If supported properly from home, they will be able to receive opportunities to continue on overseas for increased better opportunities to study or play sports so that they can realize their goals. They can then share the knowledge, skills and culture that they have received overseas. They will use this knowledge to build and create new things for our country which will make it faster for us to reach overseas and learn about different cultures all over the World. We will be able to collect knowledge and wisdom so that our relationships with those foreign countries will be strengthened. This will have to start with the parents at home. And purchases by the roadside."
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Untitled “The horse represents minimising the pollution of our environment and minimising expenditure on benzene and diesel.
The woman symbolises democracy and how they can now access the same privileges and benefits that men have, thus removing the barriers because the Church is Jesus Christ and we should have this become true. My picture shows that there will be a lot of work opportunities to employ the people of our small country."
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Roots of Development Taniela Petelo (2014) The tree and the people in it represents an extended family. The tribal pattern (Kupesi) on the roots represents the Tongan identity. I left the right side of the painting blank because that is what I think of the future of Tonga. We can be anything we want. We have a lot of options of how we want Tonga to be. If we wish for Tonga to achieve a good future, we will have to work for it. However, preparing for the future will have to start at home. That is why I chose the family, because they are the basis for wellbeing. If the home functions well, education and religion will also continue to function well, which in turn will start the progress of other things. For instance, on the issue of high school fights, we hope that one day students will live together in harmony and peace. On the right side, there is the head of a robot. It shows us the transformations at present to the future and the development of technology. The scale at the bottom represents the Government; the cross on the side represents religion. Below that there is a light bulb symbolising education, which will be a beacon of light for the future generations. Those small red drawings at the bottom are the fruits of the family tree.
Beside the light bulb there is a shadow from the back, one of the tree’s branches is a barcode, the barcode represents what we will attain in the future because of trade. There will be a time when we will no longer use cash and cards but barcodes and chips for the purchasing of goods. The reason it is a shadow still is because we have not reached that stage, but they are just aspirations for the future.
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Island Ethics Tevita Latu (2014) “The noble paramount parents of Tonga are the church and state. On the left is the mother – or the church – with the obligation to establish the flag of morale (which is the Christian morale), peace and the spirit of unification in the society. On the right is the father – or the state – who governs and takes care of the economy. The constitution was drawn from Godly facts with the hope that they will not be separated from the impact of development. Inside is a Tongan who wears a sisi lousi, which indicates our culture. The Tongan’s identity is formed while being raised at home, but includes the influence of other sectors of society on the upbringing. The black cloak at the back is the church, which is a refuge and protector. On it are new designs which is the outcome of the combination of ideas with our relatives abroad. Slow change is what we prefer and this applies also to our language, which is displayed by the new Tongan words. The fish represents our export of live ocean organisms abroad like pearl and sea cucumber. Export can be sustainable if we are to utilise it reasonably today. It is possible to find oil in the ocean floor in the future with improved research equipment. I have drawn the fish meat as a machine which represents the idea of high technology, which brings the light of education and new innovations that will ease the way forward. At the top is a light representing education, which is required for sharp increase in research and knowledge for new ideas and trading with overseas markets."
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Media Coverage Tonga foresightXchange Public Event
Tongans Think About the Future August 19, 2014
http://matangitonga.to/2014/08/19/tonga ns-think-about-future TV Tonga interview with John Sweeney https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEBee4kPNus
Public Have Their Say August 20, 2014 http://www.tongadailynews.to/?p=7976
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foresightXchange
Cabinet Retreat – 22 August 2014 - Nuku’alofa, Tonga
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Cabinet Retreat 22 August 2014 On Friday, August 22, 2014, Government of Tonga Cabinet Ministers and CEOs participated in a private foresight retreat to hear the results from the 19 August public event and learn more about strategic foresight and how it can be used to enhance public service. A brief overview of strategic foresight was given along with details on how Singapore has implemented foresight across its public service.
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The presentation of the results from the public event as well as the introduction to strategic foresight and public service was done in both English and Tongan, and participants asked questions in both languages. A lively discussion followed both presentations.
Honorable Prime Minister, Lord Tu’ivakano closed the event with remarks stressing how a foresight approach can enhance policy and planning processes, but, as he noted, foresight tools and methods must be contextualized and localized for Tonga.
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On 1 September 2014, a side event was held at the Third United Nations Conference on Small Island Developing States in Apia, Samoa.
This event was hosted by the Government of Tonga to highlight how a foresight approach can enhance policy and planning frameworks. It was supported by the UNDP Global Centre for Public Service Excellence.
Speakers at the event included: •
•
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• Lord Tu’ivakano, Honorable Prime Minister Masagos Zulkifli, Senior Minister of State for Foreign Affairs and Home Affairs, Singapore • Helen Clark, UNDP Administrator Dr. Jim Dator, Emeritus Director, Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies
Building Resilience in SIDS through Foresight Speeches “It is quite clear to me that collaborative foresight gives birth to new conversations about our shared future. It empowers participants to not only “feel” but also “be” more invested in the policy planning process. We are committed to using foresight to develop more insights, which can be translated into more prudent and effective action, and the Tonga foresightXchange demonstrated our commitment to this approach."
“If foresight is truly going to benefit Tonga – and I believe it will – then it must enhance our values, challenge us to imagine what values we will need in the future, and help us take the necessary steps to work towards our preferred future while always being mindful of the unexpected.”
- Lord Tu’ivakano, Honorable Prime Minister Full speech: https://undp.unteamworks.org/node/458553
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Building Resilience in SIDS through Foresight Speeches “Our topic today – foresight – has been picked up as one of four key ingredients to public service excellence. What we are really talking about is the future in plural: the capacity to envisage the various alternative futures; to consider them, select the preferred future and to pursue it, without losing sight of opportunities and risks along the way.” - Helen Clark, UNDP Administrator Full speech: http://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/presscenter/s peeches/2014/09/01/helen-clark-speech-at-buildingresilience-in-sids-through-foresight-side-event-at-unconference-on-small-island-developing-states/
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“Adding foresight to the mix, along with traditional planning approaches, promises to make strategies, policies and plans less vulnerable to complexity and emergent risks. It can open the eyes of strategists and planners to opportunities that are currently overlooked or ignored, since our existing incentive structures reward plan implementation with limited flexibility.”
Building Resilience in SIDS through Foresight Speeches “The International Year of the SIDS and the third SIDS Conference offer us both a challenge and an opportunity. This occasion allows us to take stock of our challenges, review our imaginings of the future, and develop viable options that will allow us to develop in a sustainable manner. We welcome the UNDP and its role in developing foresight tools for the use of SIDS. We hope that Tonga’s experience in this area can be shared with the wider SIDS membership.” - Masagos Zulkifli, Senior Minister of State for Foreign Affairs and Home Affairs, Singapore Full speech:
Singapore has diffused foresight throughout all of its ministries and has undertaken large-scale foresight projects with extensive community outreach drive. Singapore is considered by many to be the world’s leading government for foresight in public service.
http://www.mfa.gov.sg/content/mfa/media_centre/press_room/pr/201 4/201409/press_20140901_1.html
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Š UNDP Global Centre for Public Service Excellence #08-01, Block A 29 Heng Mui Keng Terrace Singapore 119620 T: +65 6908 1063 / F: +65 6774 4571 E: registry.sg@undp.org
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