The Twin Challenges of Reducing Poverty and Creating Employment

Page 1

ISBN 978-92-1-130327-8


ST/ESA/342

Division for Social Policy and Development Department of Economic and Social Affairs

The Twin Challenges of Reducing Poverty and Creating Employment 7KLV SXEOLFDWLRQ LV EDVHG RQ SUHVHQWDWLRQV PDGH DW WZR ([SHUW *URXS 0HHWLQJV RQ ³3RYHUW\ (UDGLFDWLRQ´ DQG ³7KH &KDOOHQJH RI %XLOGLQJ (PSOR\PHQW IRU D 6XVWDLQDEOH 5HFRYHU\´ ZKLFK ZHUH RUJDQL]HG E\ WKH 'LYLVLRQ IRU 6RFLDO 3ROLF\ DQG 'HYHORSPHQW RI WKH 'HSDUWPHQW RI (FRQRPLF DQG 6RFLDO $IIDLUV RI WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV 81 '(6$ LQ FROODERUDWLRQ ZLWK WKH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO /DERXU 2UJDQL]DWLRQ ,/2 LQ *HQHYD 6ZLW]HUODQG LQ -XQH

United Nations New York, 2013


Department of Economic and Social Affairs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

Notes 7KH YLHZV H[SUHVVHG LQ WKH SUHVHQW SXEOLFDWLRQ DUH WKRVH RI WKH DXWKRUV DQG GR QRW LPSO\ WKH H[SUHVVLRQ RI DQ\ RSLQLRQ RQ WKH SDUW RI WKH 6HFUHWDULDW RI WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV SDUWLFXODUO\ FRQFHUQLQJ WKH OHJDO VWDWXV RI DQ\ FRXQWU\ WHUULWRU\ FLW\ RU DUHD RU RI LWV DXWKRULWLHV RU FRQFHUQLQJ WKH GHOLPLWDWLRQ RI LWV IURQWLHUV RU ERXQGDULHV 7KH DVVLJQPHQW RI FRXQWULHV RU DUHDV WR VSHFL¿ F JURXSLQJV LV IRU DQDO\WLFDO FRQYHQLHQFH DQG GRHV QRW LPSO\ DQ\ DVVXPSWLRQ UHJDUGLQJ SROLWLFDO RU RWKHU DI¿ OLDWLRQ RI FRXQWULHV RU WHUULWRULHV E\ WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV 7KH GHVLJQDWLRQV ³GHYHORSHG´ DQG ³GHYHORSLQJ´ DUH LQWHQGHG IRU VWDWLVWLFDO DQG DQDO\WLFDO FRQYHQLHQFH DQG GR QRW QHFHVVDULO\ H[SUHVV D MXGJHPHQW DERXW WKH VWDJH UHDFKHG E\ D SDUWLFXODU FRXQWU\ RU DUHD LQ WKH GHYHORSPHQW SURFHVV

67 (6$ 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV SXEOLFDWLRQ &RS\ULJKW ‹ 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV $OO ULJKWV UHVHUYHG 7KLV SXEOLFDWLRQ LV DYDLODEOH IRU GRZQORDG DW KWWS ZZZ XQ RUJ HVD VRFGHY GRFXPHQWV HPSOR\PHQW WZLQFKDOOHQJHV SGI


5

Preface 7KH IDOORXW RI WKH JOREDO ¿ QDQFLDO DQG HFRQRPLF FULVLV RQ WKH KHHOV RI D UDSLG ULVH LQ IRRG DQG IXHO SULFHV VORZHG GRZQ JOREDO SURJUHVV LQ SRYHUW\ HUDGLFDWLRQ DQG OHG WR D VHYHUH MREV FULVLV ,Q -XQH WKH 'LYLVLRQ IRU 6RFLDO 3ROLF\ DQG 'HYHORSPHQW RI WKH 'HSDUWPHQW RI (FRQRPLF DQG 6RFLDO $IIDLUV RI WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV 81 '(6$ LQ FROODERUDWLRQ ZLWK WKH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO /DERXU 2UJDQL]DWLRQ ,/2 RUJDQL]HG WZR ([SHUW *URXS 0HHWLQJV RQ ³3RYHUW\ (UDGLFDWLRQ´ DQG ³7KH &KDOOHQJH RI %XLOGLQJ (PSOR\PHQW IRU D 6XVWDLQDEOH 5HFRYHU\´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p 0DQXHO 6DOD]DU ;LULQDFKV DQG KLV WHDP DW WKH ,/2 IRU WKHLU FRQWULEXWLRQV 7KLV ERRN ZRXOG DOVR QRW KDYH EHHQ SRVVLEOH ZLWKRXW WKH H[FHOOHQW FRQWULEXWLRQ RI DOO RI WKH H[SHUWV ZKR SDUWLFLSDWHG LQ WKH WZR ([SHUW *URXS 0HHWLQJV DQG WKH RQJRLQJ FRRSHUDWLRQ RI WKH DXWKRUV RI WKH FKDSWHUV RI WKLV SXEOLFDWLRQ

'DQLHOD %DV 'LUHFWRU 'LYLVLRQ IRU 6RFLDO 3ROLF\ DQG 'HYHORSPHQW 81 '(6$ 1HZ <RUN 'HFHPEHU



7

CONTENTS 3DJH

Preface

ϱ

Contributors

ϭϮ

Introduction

ϭϱ

Ͳ ŽŶĂůĚ >ĞĞ͕ DĂƌƚĂ ZŽŝŐ ĂŶĚ ŵƐŽŶ ^ŝďĂŶĚĂ

Part I: Poverty eradication

Ϯϭ

ŚĂƉƚĞƌ ϭ͘ WŽǀĞƌƚLJ ŵĂƩ ĞƌƐ Ͳ :ŽŵŽ <ǁĂŵĞ ^ƵŶĚĂƌĂŵ

Ϯϯ

ŚĂƉƚĞƌ Ϯ͘ ĚƵĐĂƟ ŽŶ ĂŶĚ ƚŚĞ ƌŽůĞƐ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ^ƚĂƚĞ ĂŶĚ ƚŚĞ ŵĂƌŬĞƚ ŝŶ ƉŽǀĞƌƚLJ ĞƌĂĚŝĐĂƟ ŽŶ Ͳ DŝŶƋƵĂŶ >ŝƵ

ϯϳ

ϱϱ ŚĂƉƚĞƌ ϯ͘ 'ŽǀĞƌŶĂŶĐĞ͕ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚ ĂŶĚ ƉŽǀĞƌƚLJ ĞƌĂĚŝĐĂƟ ŽŶ Ͳ 'ŽƌĂŶ ,LJĚĞŶ

ŚĂƉƚĞƌ ϰ͘ ŐƌŝĐƵůƚƵƌĞ͕ ƌƵƌĂů ůŝǀĞůŝŚŽŽĚƐ ĂŶĚ ƉŽǀĞƌƚLJ ĞƌĂĚŝĐĂƟ ŽŶ͗ ƐŽŵĞ ƉŽůŝĐLJ ůĞƐƐŽŶƐ ĨƌŽŵ ƚŚĞ ĨŽŽĚ ƉƌŝĐĞ ĐƌŝƐĞƐ Ͳ Ğƫ ŶĂ WƌĂƚŽ

ϲϵ

ŚĂƉƚĞƌ ϱ͘ ^ƵƐƚĂŝŶŝŶŐ Ğī ĞĐƟ ǀĞ ĂŶƟ ͲƉŽǀĞƌƚLJ ƉƌŽŐƌĂŵŵĞƐ ďĞLJŽŶĚ ƚƌĂŶƐĨŽƌŵĂƟ ŽŶ͗ ĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞƐ ĂŶĚ ǁĂLJ ĨŽƌǁĂƌĚ Ͳ :ƵůŝĂŶ DĂLJ

ϴϳ

Part II: The challenge of building employment for a sustainable recovery

ϭϬϯ

ŚĂƉƚĞƌ ϲ͘ ŵƉůŽLJŵĞŶƚ ŵĂƩ ĞƌƐ Ͳ :ŽŵŽ <ǁĂŵĞ ^ƵŶĚĂƌĂŵ

ϭϬϱ


8

ŚĂƉƚĞƌ ϳ͘ ϭϮϯ DĂĐƌŽĞĐŽŶŽŵŝĐ ƉŽůŝĐLJ ĂŌ Ğƌ ƚŚĞ ŐůŽďĂů ƌĞĐĞƐƐŝŽŶ ŽĨ ϮϬϬϴͲϮϬϬϵ͗ Ă ĚĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚ ƉĞƌƐƉĞĐƟ ǀĞ Ͳ /LJĂŶĂƚƵů /ƐůĂŵ ŚĂƉƚĞƌ ϴ͘ dŚĞ ĚŝƐƚƌŝďƵƟ ŽŶĂů Ğī ĞĐƚƐ ŽĨ Į ƐĐĂů ĂƵƐƚĞƌŝƚLJ Ͳ >ĂƵƌĞŶĐĞ Ăůů͕ ĂǀŝĚĞ &ƵƌĐĞƌŝ͕ ĂŶŝĞů >ĞŝŐŚ ĂŶĚ WƌĂŬĂƐŚ >ŽƵŶŐĂŶŝ

ϭϰϭ

ŚĂƉƚĞƌ ϵ͘ ĐŚŝĞǀŝŶŐ ĨƵůů͕ ƉƌŽĚƵĐƟ ǀĞ ĂŶĚ ĨƌĞĞůLJ ĐŚŽƐĞŶ ĞŵƉůŽLJŵĞŶƚ ĨŽƌ LJŽƵŶŐ ƉĞŽƉůĞ Ͳ ^ƚĞǀĞŶ DŝůůĞƌ

ϭϱϵ

ŚĂƉƚĞƌ ϭϬ͘ &ŝŶĂŶĐŝŶŐ ƐŽĐŝĂů ĂŶĚ ůĂďŽƵƌ ŵĂƌŬĞƚ ƉŽůŝĐŝĞƐ ŝŶ Ɵ ŵĞƐ ŽĨ ĐƌŝƐŝƐ ĂŶĚ ďĞLJŽŶĚ Ͳ <ĂƚũĂ ,ƵũŽ

ϭϳϱ

ŚĂƉƚĞƌ ϭϭ͘ ƌŝƐŝƐͲĚƌŝǀĞŶ ůĂďŽƵƌ ŵĂƌŬĞƚ ƉƌŽŐƌĂŵŵĞƐ͗ ƚŚĞ ĞdžƉĞƌŝĞŶĐĞ ŽĨ >ĂƟ Ŷ ŵĞƌŝĐĂ ĂŶĚ ƚŚĞ ĂƌŝďďĞĂŶ Ͳ :ĂĐƋƵĞůŝŶĞ DĂnjnjĂ ĂŶĚ ĂŶŝůŽ &ĞƌŶĂŶĚĞƐ >ŝŵĂ ĚĂ ^ŝůǀĂ

ϭϵϵ

ŚĂƉƚĞƌ ϭϮ͘ ŵƉůŽLJŵĞŶƚ ĐŚĂůůĞŶŐĞƐ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ DŝĚĚůĞ ĂƐƚ ĂŶĚ EŽƌƚŚ ĨƌŝĐĂ Ͳ njŝƚĂ ĞƌĂƌ

Ϯϭϱ

List of tables dĂďůĞ ϵ͘ϭ zŽƵƚŚ ƐŚĂƌĞ ŽĨ ǁŽƌŬŝŶŐ ĂŐĞ ƉŽƉƵůĂƟ ŽŶ

ϭϲϯ

dĂďůĞ ϭϬ͘ϭ DŽďŝůŝnjŝŶŐ ƌĞǀĞŶƵĞƐͶƟ ŵŝŶŐ ĂŶĚ ĐŽŶĚŝƟ ŽŶƐ

ϭϴϭ

dĂďůĞ ϭϬ͘Ϯ >ĂďŽƵƌ ŵĂƌŬĞƚ ƉŽůŝĐŝĞƐ ĂŶĚ ƉŽƚĞŶƟ Ăů ĨƵŶĚŝŶŐ ƐŽƵƌĐĞƐ

ϭϴϳ

dĂďůĞ ϭϬ͘ϯ ^ŽĐŝĂů ƉŽůŝĐLJ ĂŶĚ ůĂďŽƵƌ ŵĂƌŬĞƚ ƌĞƐƉŽŶƐĞƐ ƚŽ ƚŚĞ ĐƌŝƐŝƐ͕ ƐĞůĞĐƚĞĚ ĐŽƵŶƚƌŝĞƐ ;ϮϬϬϴͲϮϬϭϬͿ

ϭϴϳ

dĂďůĞ ϭϮ͘ϭ ŵƉůŽLJŵĞŶƚͲƚŽͲƉŽƉƵůĂƟ ŽŶ ƌĂƚĞ ďLJ ŐĞŶĚĞƌ

ϮϮϭ


9

dĂďůĞ ϭϮ͘Ϯ zŽƵƚŚ ůĂďŽƵƌ ĨŽƌĐĞ ƉĂƌƟ ĐŝƉĂƟ ŽŶ ƌĂƚĞƐ͕ ϮϬϬϬ͕ ϮϬϭϬ ĂŶĚ ϮϬϭϱ

ϮϮϭ

dĂďůĞ ϭϮ͘ϯ zŽƵƚŚ ĞŵƉůŽLJŵĞŶƚ͕ ƐĞǀĞƌĂů ŝŶĚŝĐĂƚŽƌƐ͕ ϮϬϬϬ͕ ϮϬϬϴ ĂŶĚ ϮϬϭϭ͕ ĂŶĚ ĂĚƵůƚ ĞŵƉůŽLJŵĞŶƚͲƚŽͲƉŽƉƵůĂƟ ŽŶ ƌĂƟ Ž

ϮϮϭ

dĂďůĞ ϭϮ͘ϰ hŶĞŵƉůŽLJŵĞŶƚ ƌĂƚĞ ďLJ ŐĞŶĚĞƌ

ϮϮϰ

dĂďůĞ ϭϮ͘ϱ ŶŶƵĂů ƌĞĂů ' W ŐƌŽǁƚŚ ƌĂƚĞƐ͕ ƐĞůĞĐƚĞĚ ĐŽƵŶƚƌŝĞƐ

ϮϮϲ

dĂďůĞ ϭϮ͘ϲ dƌĞŶĚƐ ŝŶ ƉƌŽĚƵĐƟ ǀŝƚLJ ĂŶĚ ǁĂŐĞƐ͕ ƐĞůĞĐƚĞĚ ĐŽƵŶƚƌŝĞƐ

ϮϮϳ

List of figures &ŝŐƵƌĞ ϭ͘ϭ 'ůŽďĂů ĂŶĚ ƌĞŐŝŽŶĂů ƚƌĞŶĚƐ ŝŶ ĞdžƚƌĞŵĞ ƉŽǀĞƌƚLJ͕ ϭϵϴϭͲϮϬϭϬ

Ϯϰ

&ŝŐƵƌĞ ϭ͘Ϯ ŚĂŶŐŝŶŐ ƌĞŐŝŽŶĂů ƐŚĂƌĞƐ ŝŶ ĞdžƚƌĞŵĞ ƉŽǀĞƌƚLJ͕ ϭϵϴϭͲϮϬϭϬ

Ϯϱ

&ŝŐƵƌĞ Ϯ͘ϭ ƚǁŽͲƐĞĐƚŽƌ ůŽŶŐͲƌƵŶ ŵŽĚĞů ŽĨ ůĂďŽƵƌ ŵĂƌŬĞƚƐ ĨŽƌ ƐŬŝůůĞĚ ĂŶĚ ƵŶƐŬŝůůĞĚ ůĂďŽƵƌ

ϰϮ

&ŝŐƵƌĞ ϯ͘ϭ dLJƉĞƐ ŽĨ ƉŽǀĞƌƚLJ ŵĂŶŝĨĞƐƚĂƟ ŽŶƐ ĚĞƉĞŶĚŝŶŐ ŽŶ ŐŽǀĞƌŶĂŶĐĞ ĐŽŶƚĞdžƚ

ϲϮ

&ŝŐƵƌĞ ϳ͘ϭ dŚĞ ͞Į ƐĐĂů ĚŝĂŵŽŶĚ͟

ϭϮϵ

&ŝŐƵƌĞ ϳ͘Ϯ WƵďůŝĐ ŝŶǀĞƐƚŵĞŶƚ ŝŶ > Ɛ͕ ĨƌŝĐĂ ĂŶĚ ƐŝĂ͕ ϭϵϳϬͲϮϬϬϴ

ϭϯϬ

&ŝŐƵƌĞ ϴ͘ϭ 'ŝŶŝ ĐŽĞĸ ĐŝĞŶƚ ŝŶ ĂĚǀĂŶĐĞĚ ĞĐŽŶŽŵŝĞƐ

ϭϰϰ

&ŝŐƵƌĞ ϴ͘Ϯ ƵŵƵůĂƟ ǀĞ ĐŚĂŶŐĞ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ 'ŝŶŝ ĐŽĞĸ ĐŝĞŶƚ ďĞĨŽƌĞ ĂŶĚ ĂŌ Ğƌ ĐŽŶƐŽůŝĚĂƟ ŽŶ ŵĞĂƐƵƌĞƐ

ϭϰϲ


10

&ŝŐƵƌĞ ϴ͘ϯ dŚĞ Ğī ĞĐƚƐ ŽĨ Į ƐĐĂů ĐŽŶƐŽůŝĚĂƟ ŽŶ ŽŶ ŝŶĞƋƵĂůŝƚLJ

ϭϰϲ

&ŝŐƵƌĞ ϴ͘ϰ ϭϱϬ dŚĞ Ğī ĞĐƚƐ ŽĨ Į ƐĐĂů ĐŽŶƐŽůŝĚĂƟ ŽŶ ŽŶ ŝŶĞƋƵĂůŝƚLJͶƌŽďƵƐƚŶĞƐƐ ĐŚĞĐŬ ĨŽƌ Ěŝī ĞƌĞŶƚ ƐĞƚƐ ŽĨ ĐŽŶƚƌŽůƐ &ŝŐƵƌĞ ϴ͘ϱ ϭϱϮ dŚĞ Ğī ĞĐƚƐ ŽĨ Į ƐĐĂů ĐŽŶƐŽůŝĚĂƟ ŽŶ ŽŶ ŝŶĞƋƵĂůŝƚLJͶƌŽďƵƐƚŶĞƐƐ ĐŚĞĐŬ ĨŽƌ Ěŝī ĞƌĞŶƚ ůĂŐƐ &ŝŐƵƌĞ ϴ͘ϲ dŚĞ Ğī ĞĐƚƐ ŽĨ Į ƐĐĂů ĐŽŶƐŽůŝĚĂƟ ŽŶ ŽŶ ŝŶĞƋƵĂůŝƚLJͶƐƉĞŶĚŝŶŐ ǀĞƌƐƵƐ ďĂƐĞĚ ŵĞĂƐƵƌĞƐ &ŝŐƵƌĞ ϴ͘ϳ dŚĞ Ğī ĞĐƚƐ ŽĨ Į ƐĐĂů ĐŽŶƐŽůŝĚĂƟ ŽŶ ŽŶ ǁĂŐĞ ŝŶĐŽŵĞ

ϭϱϰ

ϭϱϲ

&ŝŐƵƌĞ ϭϬ͘ϭ &ŝƐĐĂů ƐƟ ŵƵůƵƐ ƉůĂŶƐ

ϭϳϲ

&ŝŐƵƌĞ ϭϬ͘Ϯ &ŝƐĐĂů ƚƌĂŶƐŵŝƐƐŝŽŶ ĐŚĂŶŶĞůƐ

ϭϳϵ

&ŝŐƵƌĞ ϭϬ͘ϯ ZĞǀĞŶƵĞ ƚLJƉĞ͕ ĚŝƐƚƌŝďƵƟ ŽŶ ĂŶĚ ƐŽĐŝĂů ƌĞůĂƟ ŽŶƐ

ϭϴϱ

&ŝŐƵƌĞ ϭϬ͘ϰ >ĂƟ Ŷ ŵĞƌŝĐĂ ĂŶĚ ƚŚĞ ĂƌŝďďĞĂŶ͗ ŽǀĞƌĂŐĞ ŽĨ d ĂŶĚ ƌĞůĂƚĞĚ ƉƵďůŝĐ ĞdžƉĞŶĚŝƚƵƌĞ

ϭϵϭ

&ŝŐƵƌĞ ϭϮ͘ϭ dŽƚĂů ƉŽƉƵůĂƟ ŽŶ ŝŶ D E ͕ ϭϵϱϬʹϮϭϬϬ ;ŵŝůůŝŽŶƐͿ

Ϯϭϲ

&ŝŐƵƌĞ ϭϮ͘Ϯ >ĂďŽƵƌ ĨŽƌĐĞ͕ ϭϵϴϬͲϮϬϮϬ ;ŵŝůůŝŽŶƐͿ

Ϯϭϴ

&ŝŐƵƌĞ ϭϮ͘ϯ 'ĞŶĚĞƌ ŐĂƉ ŝŶ ůĂďŽƵƌ ĨŽƌĐĞ ƉĂƌƟ ĐŝƉĂƟ ŽŶ͕ ϮϬϬϬ ĂŶĚ ϮϬϭϬ

Ϯϭϴ

&ŝŐƵƌĞ ϭϮ͘ϰ zŽƵƚŚ ƵŶĞŵƉůŽLJŵĞŶƚ ƌĂƚĞ ďLJ ƌĞŐŝŽŶ͕ ϭϵϵϭͲϮϬϭϮ

ϮϮϮ

&ŝŐƵƌĞ ϭϮ͘ϱ zŽƵƚŚ ƵŶĞŵƉůŽLJŵĞŶƚ ƌĂƚĞ ďLJ ŐĞŶĚĞƌ͕ ϮϬϬϬ ĂŶĚ ϮϬϬϴͲϮϬϭϬ

ϮϮϯ


11

&ŝŐƵƌĞ ϭϮ͘ϲ hŶĞŵƉůŽLJŵĞŶƚ ƌĂƚĞ ďLJ ŐĞŶĚĞƌ͕ ƐĞůĞĐƚĞĚ ĐŽƵŶƚƌŝĞƐ͕ ůĂƚĞƐƚ LJĞĂƌ ĂǀĂŝůĂďůĞ ;ƉĞƌĐĞŶƚĂŐĞͿ &ŝŐƵƌĞ ϭϮ͘ϳ tŽƌŬŝŶŐ ƉŽǀĞƌƚLJ Ăƚ h^Ψ Ϯ Ă ĚĂLJ͕ ƐŚĂƌĞ ŝŶ ƚŽƚĂů ĞŵƉůŽLJŵĞŶƚ

ϮϮϯ

ϮϮϴ

&ŝŐƵƌĞ ϭϮ͘ϴ tŽƌŬŝŶŐ ƉŽǀĞƌƚLJ Ăƚ h^Ψ ϭ͘Ϯϱ Ă ĚĂLJ͕ ƐŚĂƌĞ ŝŶ ƚŽƚĂů ĞŵƉůŽLJŵĞŶƚ

ϮϮϴ

&ŝŐƵƌĞ ϭϮ͘ϵ >ĂďŽƵƌ ƉƌŽĚƵĐƟ ǀŝƚLJͶŽƵƚƉƵƚ ƉĞƌ ǁŽƌŬĞƌ ;ĐŽŶƐƚĂŶƚ ϮϬϬϱ ŝŶƚĞƌŶĂƟ ŽŶĂů ĚŽůůĂƌƐͿ͕ ϭϵϵϵͲϮϬϭϮ

ϮϮϵ

&ŝŐƵƌĞ ϭϮ͘ϭϬ ŵƉůŽLJŵĞŶƚ ďLJ ƐĞĐƚŽƌ͕ ƐĞůĞĐƚĞĚ ĐŽƵŶƚƌŝĞƐ ;ƉĞƌĐĞŶƚĂŐĞͿ

ϮϮϵ

&ŝŐƵƌĞ ϭϮ͘ϭϭ ŵƉůŽLJŵĞŶƚ ƐŚĂƌĞ ďLJ ƐĞĐƚŽƌ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ DŝĚĚůĞ ĂƐƚ

ϮϯϬ

&ŝŐƵƌĞ ϭϮ͘Ϯ ŵƉůŽLJŵĞŶƚ ƐŚĂƌĞ ďLJ ƐĞĐƚŽƌ ŝŶ EŽƌƚŚ ĨƌŝĐĂ

ϮϯϬ

&ŝŐƵƌĞ ϭϮ͘ϭϯ ĞĐůŝŶŝŶŐ ǁĂŐĞ ŐƌŽǁƚŚ ŝŶ ůŐĞƌŝĂ ĂŶĚ ŐLJƉƚ

Ϯϯϯ

List of boxes Ždž ϳ͘ϭ &ŝŶĂŶĐŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ DŝůůĞŶŶŝƵŵ ĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚ 'ŽĂůƐ ĂŶĚ ƚŚĞ ^ŽĐŝĂů WƌŽƚĞĐƟ ŽŶ &ůŽŽƌ

ϭϯϭ

Ždž ϳ͘Ϯ dŚĞ ƌĞůĂƟ ŽŶƐŚŝƉ ďĞƚǁĞĞŶ ĚĞďƚ ƌĞůŝĞĨ ĂŶĚ Į ƐĐĂů ƐƉĂĐĞ ŝŶ > Ɛ

ϭϯϯ

Ždž ϳ͘ϯ DĂůĂǁŝ͗ dŚĞ ĞdžĐŚĂŶŐĞ ƌĂƚĞ ƌĞŐŝŵĞ ĂŶĚ ŝƚƐ ŝŵƉůŝĐĂƟ ŽŶƐ ĨŽƌ ŐƌŽǁƚŚ ĂŶĚ ĞŵƉůŽLJŵĞŶƚ

ϭϯϱ

Ždž ϭϭ͘ϭ ĚĂƉƟ ŶŐ ƵŶĞŵƉůŽLJŵĞŶƚ ŝŶƐƵƌĂŶĐĞ͗ ƌĂnjŝů͕ ŚŝůĞ ĂŶĚ hƌƵŐƵĂLJ

ϮϬϲ

ϮϬϵ Ždž ϭϭ͘Ϯ DĞdžŝĐŽ͛Ɛ ĨĂƐƚͲƌĞƐƉŽŶƐĞ ͞WƌĞƐĞƌǀĂƟ ŽŶ ŽĨ ŵƉůŽLJŵĞŶƚ͟ ƉƌŽŐƌĂŵŵĞ ďĞĐŽŵĞƐ ƉĞƌŵĂŶĞŶƚ ƚŽ ƐĞƌǀĞ Ěŝī ĞƌĞŶƚ ƚLJƉĞƐ ŽĨ ĐƌŝƐĞƐ


12

Contributors >ĂƵƌĞŶĐĞ Ăůů :ŽŚŶƐ ,ŽƉŬŝŶƐ hŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJ njŝƚĂ ĞƌĂƌ ŝƌĞĐƚŽƌ͕ ŵƉůŽLJŵĞŶƚ WŽůŝĐLJ ĞƉĂƌƚŵĞŶƚ͕ /ŶƚĞƌŶĂƟ ŽŶĂů >ĂďŽƵƌ KƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟ ŽŶ ĂŶŝůŽ &ĞƌŶĂŶĚĞƐ >ŝŵĂ ĚĂ ^ŝůǀĂ /ŶƚĞƌͲ ŵĞƌŝĐĂŶ ĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚ ĂŶŬ ĂǀŝĚĞ &ƵƌĐĞƌŝ /ŶƚĞƌŶĂƟ ŽŶĂů DŽŶĞƚĂƌLJ &ƵŶĚ <ĂƚũĂ ,ƵũŽ hŶŝƚĞĚ EĂƟ ŽŶƐ ZĞƐĞĂƌĐŚ /ŶƐƟ ƚƵƚĞ ĨŽƌ ^ŽĐŝĂů ĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚ 'ŽƌĂŶ ,LJĚĞŶ hŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJ ŽĨ &ůŽƌŝĚĂ /LJĂŶĂƚƵů /ƐůĂŵ ŚŝĞĨ͕ ŽƵŶƚƌLJ ŵƉůŽLJŵĞŶƚ WŽůŝĐLJ hŶŝƚ͕ ŵƉůŽLJŵĞŶƚ WŽůŝĐLJ ĞƉĂƌƚŵĞŶƚ͕ /ŶƚĞƌŶĂƟ ŽŶĂů >ĂďŽƵƌ KƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟ ŽŶ :ŽŵŽ <ǁĂŵĞ ^ƵŶĚĂƌĂŵ ƐƐŝƐƚĂŶƚ ŝƌĞĐƚŽƌͲ'ĞŶĞƌĂů ĨŽƌ ĐŽŶŽŵŝĐ ĂŶĚ ^ŽĐŝĂů ĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚ͕ &ŽŽĚ ĂŶĚ ŐƌŝĐƵůƚƵƌĂů KƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟ ŽŶ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ hŶŝƚĞĚ EĂƟ ŽŶƐ ŽŶĂůĚ >ĞĞ &ŽƌŵĞƌ ŚŝĞĨ͕ ^ŽĐŝĂů WĞƌƐƉĞĐƟ ǀĞ ŽŶ ĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚ ƌĂŶĐŚ͕ ŝǀŝƐŝŽŶ ĨŽƌ ^ŽĐŝĂů WŽůŝĐLJ ĂŶĚ ĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚ͕ ĞƉĂƌƚŵĞŶƚ ŽĨ ĐŽŶŽŵŝĐ ĂŶĚ ^ŽĐŝĂů ī ĂŝƌƐ͕ hŶŝƚĞĚ EĂƟ ŽŶƐ WƌĞƐŝĚĞŶƚ͕ /ŶƚĞƌŶĂƟ ŽŶĂů ŽŵŵŝƩ ĞĞ ĨŽƌ KĐƚŽďĞƌ ϭϳ ;hŶŝƚĞĚ EĂƟ ŽŶƐ ŝŶƚĞƌŶĂƟ ŽŶĂů ĚĂLJ ĨŽƌ ƚŚĞ ĞƌĂĚŝĐĂƟ ŽŶ ŽĨ ƉŽǀĞƌƚLJͿ DŝŶƋƵĂŶ >ŝƵ ĞŶƚƌĞ ĨŽƌ ,ƵŵĂŶ ĂŶĚ ĐŽŶŽŵŝĐ ĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚ ^ƚƵĚŝĞƐ͕ WĞŬŝŶŐ hŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJ͕ ĂŶĚ ƐŝĂŶ ĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚ ĂŶŬ /ŶƐƟ ƚƵƚĞ


13

ĂŶŝĞů >ĞŝŐŚ /ŶƚĞƌŶĂƟ ŽŶĂů DŽŶĞƚĂƌLJ &ƵŶĚ WƌĂŬĂƐŚ >ŽƵŶŐĂŶŝ /ŶƚĞƌŶĂƟ ŽŶĂů DŽŶĞƚĂƌLJ &ƵŶĚ :ƵůŝĂŶ DĂLJ /ŶƐƟ ƚƵƚĞ ĨŽƌ ^ŽĐŝĂů ĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚ͕ hŶŝǀĞƌƐŝƚLJ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ tĞƐƚĞƌŶ ĂƉĞ :ĂĐƋƵĞůŝŶĞ DĂnjnjĂ /ŶƚĞƌͲ ŵĞƌŝĐĂŶ ĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚ ĂŶŬ ^ƚĞǀĞŶ DŝůůĞƌ /ŶƚĞƌŶĂƟ ŽŶĂů >ĂďŽƵƌ KƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟ ŽŶ Ğƫ ŶĂ WƌĂƚŽ ZĞƐĞĂƌĐŚ ŽŽƌĚŝŶĂƚŽƌ͕ Kĸ ĐĞ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ŚŝĞĨ ĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚ ^ƚƌĂƚĞŐŝƐƚ͕ /ŶƚĞƌŶĂƟ ŽŶĂů &ƵŶĚ ĨŽƌ ŐƌŝĐƵůƚƵƌĂů ĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚ DĂƌƚĂ ZŽŝŐ ŝǀŝƐŝŽŶ ĨŽƌ ^ŽĐŝĂů WŽůŝĐLJ ĂŶĚ ĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚ͕ ĞƉĂƌƚŵĞŶƚ ŽĨ ĐŽŶŽŵŝĐ ĂŶĚ ^ŽĐŝĂů ī ĂŝƌƐ͕ hŶŝƚĞĚ EĂƟ ŽŶƐ ŵƐŽŶ ^ŝďĂŶĚĂ ŝǀŝƐŝŽŶ ĨŽƌ ^ŽĐŝĂů WŽůŝĐLJ ĂŶĚ ĞǀĞůŽƉŵĞŶƚ͕ ĞƉĂƌƚŵĞŶƚ ŽĨ ĐŽŶŽŵŝĐ ĂŶĚ ^ŽĐŝĂů ī ĂŝƌƐ͕ hŶŝƚĞĚ EĂƟ ŽŶƐ


14 •

The Twin Challenges of Reducing Poverty and Creating Employment


15

Introduction

'21$/' /(( 0$57$ 52,* $1' $0621 6,%$1'$

7KH H[SHULHQFH RI FRXQWULHV WKDW KDYH VXFFHHGHG LQ UHGXFLQJ SRYHUW\ VLJQL¿ FDQWO\ SRLQW WR WKH LPSRUWDQW UROH RI KLJK UDWHV RI HFRQRPLF JURZWK FRPELQHG ZLWK KLJK UDWHV RI HPSOR\PHQW JURZWK +LJK UDWHV RI HFRQRPLF JURZWK RQ WKHLU RZQ DUH LQVXI¿ FLHQW WR JXDUDQWHH WKDW SRYHUW\ UHGXFWLRQ ZLOO RFFXU XQOHVV WKH EHQH¿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¿ VFDO VWLPXOXV SDFNDJHV KDV EHHQ RYHUWDNHQ E\ DQ LQFUHDVLQJ SUHRFFXSDWLRQ ZLWK KLJK OHYHOV RI JRYHUQPHQW GHEW DQG D VKLIW WRZDUGV ¿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À RZV 7KH PDUNHG VKLIW WRZDUGV ¿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


16 •

The Twin Challenges of Reducing Poverty and Creating Employment

7KH ¿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À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±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±GHYHORSPHQW QH[XV LQ UHODWLRQ WR HUDGLFDWLQJ RU UHGXFLQJ SRYHUW\ ,W HQGV E\ GLVFXVVLQJ QHZ SROLF\ RSWLRQV IRU WKH IXWXUH 7KH FKDSWHU E\ %HWWLQD 3UDWR SRLQWV WR WKH UHQHZHG IRFXV RQ WKH UROH RI DJULFXOWXUDO GHYHORSPHQW DV D GULYHU RI LQFOXVLYH JURZWK DQG SRYHUW\ UHGXFWLRQ DQG WKH LQFUHDVLQJ UHFRJQLWLRQ RI WKH SRWHQWLDO IRU DJULFXOWXUH WR FRQWULEXWH WR IRRG


Introduction

• 17

VHFXULW\ DQG QXWULWLRQ DQG FOLPDWH FKDQJH PLWLJDWLRQ +RZHYHU LQ VSLWH RI WKLV UHQHZHG IRFXV RQ DJULFXOWXUH WKHUH LV XQGHULQYHVWPHQW LQ WKH VHFWRU DQG DJULFXOWXUH LV EHFRPLQJ LQFUHDVLQJO\ LQFDSDEOH RI SURYLGLQJ D VXI¿ FLHQW VWDEOH LQFRPH VRXUFH IRU SRRU IDUPLQJ KRXVHKROGV LQ WKH GHYHORSLQJ ZRUOG 7KH DXWKRU EHOLHYHV WKDW WKH UHFHQW VHULHV RI JOREDO IRRG FULVHV SURYLGH LPSRUWDQW SROLF\ OHVVRQV DERXW KRZ WR EHWWHU WDFNOH UXUDO SRYHUW\ 7KHVH FULVHV KLJKOLJKW WKH YXOQHUDELOLW\ RI SRRU UXUDO SHRSOH¶V OLYHOLKRRGV WR IRRG SULFH YRODWLOLW\ DQG VKRFNV DV ZHOO DV WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI IRRG VHFXULW\ DQG DGHTXDWH QXWULWLRQ 7KH FKDSWHU VWUHVVHV WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI DSSURSULDWH SROLF\ LQLWLDWLYHV WKDW IRFXV RQ VWUHQJWKHQLQJ SRRU UXUDO SHRSOH¶V FDSDELOLWLHV DV ZHOO DV IDFLOLWDWLQJ WKH FUHDWLRQ RI RSSRUWXQLWLHV 7KH DXWKRU DUJXHV WKDW SRRU UXUDO SHRSOH VKRXOG QRW EH SHUFHLYHG PHUHO\ DV YLFWLPV RI WKH SULFH FULVHV EXW DOVR DV DFWLYH SDUWQHUV ZKR FDQ SOD\ DQ LPSRUWDQW UROH LQ ¿ QGLQJ D VROXWLRQ WR WKH JOREDO LPEDODQFHV WKDW WULJJHUHG WKH FULVHV E\ RSHQLQJ XS QHZ RSSRUWXQLWLHV IRU LQFOXVLYH UXUDO JURZWK DQG SRYHUW\ HUDGLFDWLRQ -XOLDQ 0D\ ORRNV DW WKH FKDOOHQJHV IDFLQJ 6RXWK $IULFD¶V HIIRUWV WR VXVWDLQ HIIHFWLYH DQWL SRYHUW\ SURJUDPPHV EH\RQG WKH SROLWLFDO WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ DQG HFRQRPLF UHIRUPV WKDW KDYH EHHQ DFKLHYHG 'HVSLWH EHLQJ RQH RI WKH ODUJHVW HFRQRPLHV LQ WKH ZRUOG LQ WHUPV RI JURVV GRPHVWLF SURGXFW *'3 6RXWK $IULFD LV KRPH WR WKH ¿ IWK ODUJHVW SRRU SRSXODWLRQ LQ VXE 6DKDUDQ $IULFD :KLOH WKH DXWKRU LV KRSHIXO WKDW PDQ\ FRXQWULHV LQ $IULFD PD\ VHH D ORQJ WHUP UHGXFWLRQ LQ VWUXFWXUDO SRYHUW\ KH SRLQWV WR WZR DUHDV RI FRQFHUQ )LUVW WKHUH DUH GHHS SRFNHWV RI SRYHUW\ LQ PDQ\ SDUWV RI $IULFD WKDW DUH QRW EHLQJ DGHTXDWHO\ UHDFKHG E\ JRYHUQPHQW SROLF\ DQG ZKLFK KDYH OLWWOH FKDQFH RI EHQH¿ WLQJ IURP $IULFD¶V ZHDOWK RU WKH UHGLVWULEXWLYH SROLFLHV RI LWV *RYHUQPHQWV 7KH VHFRQG FRQFHUQ LV WKDW WKH HFRQRPLHV RI PDQ\ $IULFDQ HFRQRPLHV UHPDLQ LQHI¿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¿ UVW 0LOOHQQLXP 'HYHORSPHQW *RDO RI UHGXFLQJ SRYHUW\ E\ KDOI E\ 7KH DXWKRU UHPLQGV XV WKDW WKH SROLF\ UHVSRQVHV WR WKH *UHDW 5HFHVVLRQ KDYH GRQH OLWWOH WR DGGUHVV KLJK LI QRW JURZLQJ XQHPSOR\PHQW LQ GHYHORSHG FRXQWULHV DQG FKDOOHQJHV WKH FXUUHQW SUHRFFXSDWLRQ RI SROLF\PDNHUV LQ PRVW DGYDQFHG FRXQWULHV ZLWK UHGXFLQJ ¿ VFDO GH¿ FLWV DQG SXEOLF GHEW LQ WKH KRSH RI LQVSLULQJ PDUNHW FRQ¿ GHQFH 7KH FKDSWHU FRQFOXGHV ZLWK D VHW RI SROLF\ UHFRPPHQGDWLRQV WR LPSURYH PDFURHFRQRPLF DQG ODERXU PDUNHW UHVSRQVHV WR WKH FRQWLQXLQJ HIIHFWV RI WKH *UHDW 5HFHVVLRQ ,Q WKH QH[W FKDSWHU ,\DQDWXO ,VODP TXHVWLRQV WKH XVHIXOQHVV RI WKH VW DQGDUG


18 •

The Twin Challenges of Reducing Poverty and Creating Employment

PDFURHFRQRPLF IUDPHZRUN DQG SURSRVHV PRGL¿ FDWLRQV WKDW ZRXOG PDNH LW PRUH GHYHORSPHQW IULHQGO\ +H SRLQWV RXW WKDW PXFK UHWKLQNLQJ RI WKH VWDQGDUG PDFURHFRQRPLF IUDPHZRUN WKDW HPHUJHG LQ WKH ZDNH RI WKH JOREDO UHFHVVLRQ RI KDV EHHQ RYHUVKDGRZHG E\ WKH DVFHQGDQF\ RI WKH ¿ VFDO DXVWHULW\ DJHQGD SDUWLFXODUO\ LQ WKH (XURSHDQ 8QLRQ +H QRWHV WKDW GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV DUH VWLOO SUHRFFXSLHG ZLWK ¿ VFDO FRQVROLGDWLRQ DQG LQÀ DWLRQ FRQWURO DQG OHVV IRFXVHG RQ SRYHUW\ UHGXFWLRQ HPSOR\PHQW FUHDWLRQ DQG VRFLDO SURWHFWLRQ 7KH FKDSWHU SURSRVHV WKH DGRSWLRQ RI D ³GXDO PDQGDWH´ LQ ZKLFK PDFURHFRQRPLF SROLF\ PDQDJHUV DFW DV ERWK JXDUGLDQV RI VWDELOLW\ DQG DFWLYH DJHQWV RI GHYHORSPHQW 3ROLFLHV IRU SULFH VWDELOLW\ VKRXOG EH VHQVLWLYH WR FRXQWU\ VSHFL¿ F JURZWK LQÀ DWLRQ WUDGH RIIV WDNH DFFRXQW RI IRRG SULFH LQÀ DWLRQ DQG SURPRWH ¿ QDQFLDO LQFOXVLRQ 7KH FKDSWHU DOVR DUJXHV IRU ¿ VFDO SROLF\ WKDW LV OHVV IRFXVHG RQ DWWDLQLQJ SUHGHWHUPLQHG WDUJHWV IRU GHEWV DQG GH¿ FLWV DQG WKDW DLPV DW UHVWRULQJ JURZWK DQG HPSOR\PHQW LQ WLPHV RI FULVLV DQG DW VXVWDLQDEO\ LQFUHDVLQJ UHYHQXH WR PHHW FRUH GHYHORSPHQW JRDOV 7KH MR LQW FKDSWHU E\ /DXUHQFH %DOO 'DYLGH )XUFHUL 'DQLHO /HLJK DQG 3UDNDVK /RXQJDQL DVVHVVHV WKH VKRUW DQG PHGLXP WHUP GLVWULEXWLRQDO HIIHFWV RI ¿ VFDO DXVWHULW\ 8VLQJ GDWD IRU D VDPSOH RI 2UJDQL]DWLRQ IRU (FRQRPLF &RRSHUDWLRQ DQG 'HYHORSPHQW 2(&' FRXQWULHV RYHU WKH SHULRG WKH\ VKRZ WKDW ¿ VFDO FRQVROLGDWLRQ HSLVRGHV KDYH W\SLFDOO\ OHG WR D VLJQL¿ FDQW DQG ORQJ ODVWLQJ LQFUHDVH LQ LQHTXDOLW\ DFFRPSDQLHG E\ D IDOO LQ ZDJH LQFRPH ZLWKRXW VLJQL¿ FDQW HIIHFW RQ SUR¿ W DQG UHQW LQFRPH 7KH DXWKRUV FDXWLRQ *RYHUQPHQWV WR DGRSW PRUH UHDOLVWLF H[SHFWDWLRQV DERXW WKH FRQVHTXHQFHV RI ¿ VFDO FRQVROLGDWLRQ ,Q SDUWLFXODU WKH\ SRLQW RXW WKDW FRXQWULHV VKRXOG RSW IRU D VORZHU SDFH RI FRQVROLGDWLRQ FRPELQHG ZLWK SROLFLHV WR VXSSRUW JURZWK *RYHUQPHQWV VKRXOG DOVR WDNH LQWR DFFRXQW KRZ WKHVH SROLFLHV ZRXOG UHVSRQG WR VORZHU WKDQ HQYLVDJHG JURZWK DQG VKRXOG EH DEOH WR DGMXVW WKHP DFFRUGLQJO\ 6WHYHQ 0LOOHU¶V FKDSWHU SURYLGHV LPSRUWDQW LQVLJKWV LQWR KRZ *RYHUQPHQWV VKRXOG JR DERXW DFKLHYLQJ IXOO SURGXFWLYH DQG IUHHO\ FKRVHQ HPSOR\PHQW IRU \RXQJ SHRSOH +H VKRZV WKDW LQ WKH DIWHUPDWK RI WKH *UHDW 5HFHVVLRQ JOREDO \RXWK XQHPSOR\PHQW URVH VKDUSO\ DQG VWLOO KDV QRW UHFRYHUHG 7KH FKDSWHU SRLQWV RXW WKDW ZKLOH WKH SULYDWH VHFWRU LV WKH PDLQ GULYHU DQG VRXUFH RI MRE FUHDWLRQ LW LV QRW FUHDWLQJ VXI¿ FLHQW GHFHQW MREV WR PHHW WKH UHTXLUHPHQWV RI \RXQJ SHRSOH HQWHULQJ WKH ODERXU IRUFH DQG WKDW WKHUH LV LQFUHDVHG QHHG IRU GLUHFW MRE FUHDWLRQ E\ SXEOLF DXWKRULWLHV 6XFK GLUHFW SXEOLF VHFWRU LQWHUYHQWLRQV DUH VHHQ DV D PHDQV RI PDLQWDLQLQJ KXPDQ FDSLWDO GXULQJ ¿ QDQFLDO FLYLO RU SROLWLFDO FULVHV RU HFRQRPLF GRZQWXUQV DQG RI VXSSRUWLQJ WKH SULYDWH VHFWRU LQ LPSURYLQJ LWV SURGXFWLYLW\ 7KH FKDSWHU E\ .DWMD +XMR H[DPLQHV KRZ ODERXU PDUNHW DQG VRFLDO SROLFLHV VKRXOG EH ¿ QDQFHG GXULQJ DQG IROORZLQJ D SHULRG RI FULVLV 7KH FKDSWHU SRVLWV WKDW LVVXHV RI ¿ QDQFLQJ DQG VRFLDO SROLF\ KDYH WR EH DSSURDFKHG VLPXOWDQHRXVO\ LQ RUGHU WR GHVLJQ VRFLDO DQG HFRQRPLF V\VWHPV WKDW DUH PXWXDOO\ UHLQIRUFLQJ DQG VXVWDLQDEOH 8VLQJ FRQFUHWH FRXQWU\ H[DPSOHV WKH DXWKRU SUHVHQWV VHYHUDO LQVWUXPHQWV DYDLODEOH IRU JHQHUDWLQJ IXQGLQJ IRU VRFLDO SROLFLHV DQG GLVFXVVHV WKHLU


Introduction

• 19

SURV DQG FRQV LQFOXGLQJ WKHLU LPSDFWV RQ JURZWK DQG LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ 7KH FKDOOHQJH LV WR HQVXUH WKDW FRXQWULHV ZLWK OLPLWHG ¿ VFDO VSDFH DQG KLJK H[SRVXUH WR JOREDO PDUNHW ULVNV DUH DGHTXDWHO\ VXSSRUWHG DW WKH UHJLRQDO DQG JOREDO OHYHOV HVSHFLDOO\ GXULQJ WLPHV RI FULVHV ZKHQ ULFK DV ZHOO DV SRRU FRXQWULHV IDFH VLPLODU ¿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¶V VWLOO GHYHORSLQJ ODERXU PDUNHW SROLF\ PL[ ZRXOG EH ZHOO VHUYHG WR XWLOL]H HYLGHQFH SURGXFHG GXULQJ FULVHV PRUH VWUDWHJLFDOO\ WR EXLOG ORQJ WHUP LQVWLWXWLRQDO FDSDFLW\ DQG D PRUH SHUPDQHQW VHW RI DFWLYH DQG SDVVLYH ODERXU PDUNHW SROLFLHV DYDLODEOH ERWK LQ JRRG DQG EDG WLPHV 7KH ¿ QDO FKDSWHU LQ 3DUW ,, RI WKLV YROXPH E\ $]LWD %HUDU $ZDG WDNHV D FULWLFDO ORRN DW WKH HFRQRPLF DQG ODERXU PDUNHW GLPHQVLRQV RI WKH VRFLDO DQG SROLWLFDO XSKHDYDOV LQ WKH 0LGGOH (DVW DQG 1RUWK $IULFD FRPPRQO\ FDOOHG WKH ³$UDE 6SULQJ´ +HU FKDSWHU SRLQWV WR WKH IDLOXUH RI HFRQRPLF VWUDWHJLHV LQ WKH FRXQWULHV LQ WKH UHJLRQ WR GHOLYHU RQ MREV SDUWLFXODUO\ GHFHQW MREV ZKLFK FUHDWHG D ZLGHQLQJ JDS EHWZHHQ WKH HGXFDWLRQDO DWWDLQPHQW FDSDELOLWLHV DQG DVSLUDWLRQV RI \RXQJ ZRPHQ DQG PHQ DQG WKH RSSRUWXQLWLHV DYDLODEOH WR WKHP 7KH FKDSWHU DUJXHV WKDW WKH SRVW±$UDE 6SULQJ GHYHORSPHQW DJHQGD QHHGV WR IRFXV RQ WKH FUHDWLRQ RI GHFHQW MREV ,Q SDUWLFXODU PDFURHFRQRPLF SROLFLHV VKRXOG DFWLYHO\ SURPRWH HPSOR\PHQW FUHDWLRQ FUHDWH ¿ VFDO VSDFH IRU LQYHVWLQJ LQ ODERXU PDUNHW SROLFLHV DQG KXPDQ FDSLWDO DQG HQKDQFH DFFHVV WR ¿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¿ F VWUDWHJLHV :KLOH QR VLQJOH SROLF\ SUHVFULSWLRQ FDQ VHFXUH WKH WUDQVLWLRQ WR PRUH LQFOXVLYH HTXLWDEOH DQG VXVWDLQHG SDWWHUQV RI HFRQRPLF JURZWK WKH FKDSWHUV GLVFXVV HFRQRPLF DQG VRFLDO SROLFLHV WKDW FDQ ZRUN WRJHWKHU WR UHGXFH


20 •

The Twin Challenges of Reducing Poverty and Creating Employment

SRYHUW\ DQG ERRVW GHPDQG LQ D VXVWDLQDEOH PDQQHU WKURXJK LQFUHDVHV LQ GHFHQW ZRUN DQG XQLYHUVDO VRFLDO SURWHFWLRQ UDWKHU WKDQ WKURXJK VSHFXODWLRQ LQ FUHGLW DQG DVVHW PDUNHWV


21

3$57 , 329(57< (5$',&$7,21


22 •

The Twin Challenges of Reducing Poverty and Creating Employment


23

Chapter 1 Poverty matters -202 .:$0( 681'$5$0

Global poverty trends :RUOG OHDGHUV DJUHHG LQ WR KDOYH WKH QXPEHU RI SHRSOH OLYLQJ RQ OHVV WKDQ D GROODU D GD\ E\ 7KHUH KDV EHHQ VRPH UHSRUWHG VXFFHVV LQ UHGXFLQJ JOREDO SRYHUW\ OHYHOV 7KH QXPEHU RI SHRSOH OLYLQJ RQ OHVV WKDQ D GD\ LQ GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV LV VDLG WR KDYH GHFOLQHG IURP ELOOLRQ WR ELOOLRQ EHWZHHQ DQG ¿ JXUH ,Q DGGLWLRQ WKH SURSRUWLRQ RI SHRSOH OLYLQJ LQ H[WUHPH SRYHUW\ GURSSHG IURP WR SHU FHQW RYHU WKH SHULRG 7KXV WKH 0LOOHQQLXP 'HYHORSPHQW *RDO RI KDOYLQJ SRYHUW\ E\ 0'* LV VDLG WR KDYH EHHQ DFKLHYHG ZHOO LQ DGYDQFH RI WKH WDUJHW \HDU

Where do the poor live? 7KH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI SHRSOH OLYLQJ LQ SRYHUW\ ZLWKLQ DQG DFURVV UHJLRQV KDV FKDQJHG GXULQJ WKH SDVW WKUHH GHFDGHV DFFRUGLQJ WR :RUOG %DQN GDWD ¿ JXUH &RPSDUHG ZLWK WKH DEVROXWH QXPEHU RI SHRSOH OLYLQJ LQ SRYHUW\ LQ ZHQW XS LQ PDQ\ FRXQWULHV LQ VXE 6DKDUDQ $IULFD /DWLQ $PHULFD WKH 0LGGOH (DVW DQG 1RUWK $IULFD DV ZHOO DV &HQWUDO $VLD VHH ¿ JXUH :KLOH SHU FHQW RI WKH ZRUOG¶V SRRU OLYHG LQ (DVW $VLD DQG WKH 3DFL¿ F LQ WKH VXEUHJLRQ ZDV KRPH WR RQO\ SHU FHQW RI WKH JOREDO SRRU LQ ,Q FRQWUDVW WKH VKDUH RI WKH ZRUOG¶V SRRU LQFUHDVHG LQ 6RXWK $VLD IURP SHU FHQW LQ WR SHU FHQW LQ DQG PRUH WKDQ GRXEOHG LQ VXE 6DKDUDQ $IULFD IURP SHU FHQW WR SHU FHQW EHWZHHQ DQG 7KH FKDQJLQJ UHJLRQDO GLVWULEXWLRQ RI SRYHUW\ UHÀ HFWV EURDG FKDQJHV LQ 1 I am indebted to Anis Chowdhury and Amson Sibanda for their assistance in finalizing this introductory chapter. Nevertheless, neither of them are accountable for any remaining mistakes or controversies.


24 •

The Twin Challenges of Reducing Poverty and Creating Employment

HFRQRPLF SHUIRUPDQFH 7KH GHFOLQH LQ SRYHUW\ KDV EHHQ ODUJHO\ GXH WR UDSLG JURZWK LQ &KLQD LQ UHFHQW GHFDGHV 0RVW RI WKH ZRUOG¶V SRRU QR ORQJHU OLYH LQ ORZ LQFRPH FRXQWULHV /,&V 6XPQHU ,Q SHU FHQW RI WKH ZRUOG¶V SRRU OLYHG LQ /,&V ,Q SHU FHQW RI WKH ZRUOG¶V SRRU²DSSUR[LPDWHO\ ELOOLRQ²OLYHG LQ PLGGOH LQFRPH FRXQWULHV 0,&V ZKLOH DERXW SHU FHQW RI WKH ZRUOG¶V SRRU DSSUR[LPDWHO\ PLOOLRQ OLYHG LQ WKH /,&V ODUJHO\ LQ VXE 6DKDUDQ $IULFD 2QO\ IRXU FRXQWULHV ,QGLD ,QGRQHVLD 1LJHULD DQG 3DNLVWDQ DFFRXQW IRU PXFK RI WKLV VKLIW DV WKHVH 0,&V DUH QR ORQJHU /,&V %HVLGHV &KLQD DQG ,QGLD WKH VKDUH RI JOREDO SRYHUW\ DFFRXQWHG IRU E\ RWKHU 0,&V KDV ULVHQ IURP WR SHU FHQW )UDJLOH /,&V DFFRXQW IRU RQO\ SHU FHQW RI WKH ZRUOG¶V SRRU FRPSDUHG ZLWK WKH HDUOLHU HVWLPDWHV RI DSSUR[LPDWHO\ SHU FHQW 7KHVH ¿ QGLQJV DUH FRQVLVWHQW DFURVV PRQHWDU\ QXWULWLRQDO DQG PXOWLGLPHQVLRQDO SRYHUW\ PHDVXUHV 6XPQHU 7UHQGV LQ LQHTXDOLW\ VKRXOG DOVR EH FRQVLGHUHG HVSHFLDOO\ E\ WKRVH ZKR YLHZ SRYHUW\ DV UHODWLYH UDWKHU WKDQ DEVROXWH LQ WKH VHQVH RI EHLQJ GH¿ QHG LQ WHUPV RI D ¿ [HG XVXDOO\ PRQH\ LQFRPH SRYHUW\ OLQH 1RW RQO\ DUH WKHUH ZLGHU LQFRPH JDSV )LJXUH *OREDO DQG UHJLRQDO WUHQGV LQ H[WUHPH SRYHUW\ 1XPEHU RI 3HRSOH OLYLQJ RQ OHVV WKDQ D GD\ 205

239

290 330

568

1XPEHU RI SHRSOH PLOOLRQV

257 574

349

377

632

617

835

390

593

720

619

631

395 640

683 633

586

443

446

399 414

598 571

363

507

1097 970 848

926

871

212 640

173

654

156

523 332

284

251

(DVW $VLD DQG 3DFLILF

&KLQD

(XURSH DQG &HQWUDO $VLD

/DWLQ $PHULFD DQG WKH &DULEEHDQ

0LGGOH (DVW DQG 1RUWK $IULFD

6RXWK $VLD

6XE 6DKDUDQ $IULFD

Source: World Bank (2013).


Poverty matters

• 25

)LJXUH &KDQJLQJ UHJLRQDO VKDUH LQ H[WUHPH SRYHUW\ 10.6

12.9

14.5

15.2

17.3

20.5

21.6

23.8

28.4

30.7

29.3 30.9 33.5

32.3

33.0

2.2

37.0

2.9 2.8

35.6 39.1

2.8 2.8

43.1

43.1

3.2

38.8 33.1

35.8

43.8

3.5

33.1 25.6

22.2

3.4 2.8 15.3

56.6

52.2

47.9

48.5

45.5

41.7

3.8 26.0

34.1

37.5

37.5

31.9

13.3

2.7 12.8

23.9

21.8

20.7

(DVW $VLD DQG 3DFLILF

&KLQD

(XURSH DQG &HQWUDO $VLD

/DWLQ $PHULFD DQG WKH &DULEEHDQ

0LGGOH (DVW DQG 1RUWK $IULFD

6RXWK $VLD

6XE 6DKDUDQ $IULFD

Source: World Bank (2013).

EHWZHHQ ULFK DQG SRRU FRXQWULHV EXW ZLWKLQ FRXQWU\ LQFRPH LQHTXDOLWLHV KDYH DOVR LQFUHDVHG LQ WKH PDMRULW\ RI FRXQWULHV EHWZHHQ WKH HDUO\ V DQG LQFRPH LQHTXDOLW\ URVH LQ RXW RI FRXQWULHV IRU ZKLFK GDWD DUH DYDLODEOH DQG GHFOLQHG LQ FRXQWULHV

Conventional poverty measures 0DQ\ DQDO\VWV KDYH FKDOOHQJHG WKH FRQYHQWLRQDO SRYHUW\ HVWLPDWHV XVLQJ WKH :RUG %DQN¶V D GD\ PHDVXUH 7KH PDLQ LVVXH LV WKH XWLOLW\ RI WKH SRYHUW\ OLQH DV D PHDQLQJIXO PHDVXUH RI SRYHUW\ 7KH HYLGHQFH VXJJHVWV WKDW VXFK SRYHUW\ OLQHV PLVUHSUHVHQW WKH DFWXDO H[WHQW RI SRYHUW\ )RU H[DPSOH PDQ\ REVHUYHUV TXHVWLRQ KRZ SRYHUW\ KDV JRQH GRZQ DFFRUGLQJ WR :RUOG %DQN HVWLPDWHV ZKLOH KXQJHU DQG XQGHUQRXULVKPHQW KDYH LQFUHDVHG RYHU WKH ODVW GHFDGH DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH )RRG DQG $JULFXOWXUH 2UJDQL]DWLRQ RI WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV )$2 $IWHU DOO WKH SRYHUW\ OLQH LV SRSXODUO\ XQGHUVWRRG DV EHLQJ GH¿ QHG E\ WKH PRQH\ LQFRPH UHTXLUHG WR DYRLG EHLQJ KXQJU\ 5HGG\ H[SRVHV WKH PHWKRGRORJLFDO LQDGHTXDFLHV RI UHFHQW JOREDO SRYHUW\ HVWLPDWHV E\ WKH :RUOG %DQN 7KH UHYLVLRQ RI WKH :RUOG %DQN¶V


26 •

The Twin Challenges of Reducing Poverty and Creating Employment

JOREDO SRYHUW\ HVWLPDWHV EDVHG RQ D QHZ SXUFKDVLQJ SRZHU SDULW\ 333

SRYHUW\ OLQH XQGHUVFRUHV WKHLU XQUHOLDELOLW\ )XUWKHUPRUH WKH QHZ :RUOG %DQN SRYHUW\ OLQH GRHV QRW VHHP WR KDYH FRQVLGHUHG WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV LQÀ DWLRQ UDWH KDG LW EHHQ XVHG WKH GROODU D GD\ ODWHU D GD\ OLQH VKRXOG KDYH EHFRPH D GD\ LQ ZLWK REYLRXV LPSOLFDWLRQV IRU FRUUHVSRQGLQJ SRYHUW\ HVWLPDWHV 5HGG\ DUJXHV WKDW WKH %DQN¶V SRYHUW\ OLQH LV QRW RQO\ À DZHG EXW DOVR QRW YHU\ XVHIXO IRU SROLF\ SXUSRVHV +H DUJXHV WKDW PXFK OHVV ZHLJKW VKRXOG EH JLYHQ WR WKH %DQN¶V SRYHUW\ HVWLPDWHV LQ PRQLWRULQJ 0'* WR UHGXFH SRYHUW\ DQG KXQJHU E\ KDOI IURP WR 7KLV KDV VHULRXV LPSOLFDWLRQV IRU LQWHUQDWLRQDO RUJDQL]DWLRQV¶ UHFHQW FODLPV WR KDYH DFKLHYHG 0'* E\ &KDQG\ DQG .KDUDV HPSKDVL]H WKH ZHDN HPSLULFDO EDVLV IRU WKH FRXQWU\ DQG JOREDO SRYHUW\ QXPEHUV XVHG E\ WKH :RUOG %DQN )RU LQVWDQFH WDNLQJ WKH %DQN¶V ¿ JXUHV DW IDFH YDOXH ZRXOG LPSO\ WKH IROORZLQJ RGG IDFWV WKH 'HPRFUDWLF 3HRSOH¶V 5HSXEOLF RI .RUHD KDV URXJKO\ WKH VDPH SRYHUW\ UDWH DV &KLQD 3HUVRQDO FRQVXPSWLRQ LQ ,QGLD KDV JURZQ DW D SDOWU\ SHU FHQW SHU \HDU VLQFH WKH FRXQWU\¶V HFRQRPLF WDNHRII LQ WKH HDUO\ V ,Q ,QGLD ZLWK RYHU PLOOLRQ FHOO SKRQH VXEVFULEHUV DQG PLOOLRQ FDUV WKH PLGGOH FODVV QXPEHUV RQO\ PLOOLRQ SHRSOH 8VLQJ WKHVH H[DPSOHV &KDQG\ DQG .KDUDV KLJKOLJKW NH\ GLI¿ FXOWLHV LQ PDNLQJ JOREDO SRYHUW\ HVWLPDWHV )LUVW LV WKH LPSRVVLELOLW\ RI VD\LQJ DQ\WKLQJ PHDQLQJIXO DERXW SRYHUW\ LQ D FRXQWU\ ZLWKRXW D KRXVHKROG VXUYH\ WR H[SODLQ KRZ LQFRPH RU FRQVXPSWLRQ LV GLVWULEXWHG DPRQJ LWV SHRSOH 7KH :RUOG %DQN DYRLGV WKLV SUREOHP E\ PDNLQJ WKH KHURLF DVVXPSWLRQ WKDW DQ\ FRXQWU\ ZLWK QR VXUYH\ KDV WKH VDPH SRYHUW\ UDWH DV WKH DYHUDJH IRU LWV UHJLRQ 7KXV WKH 'HPRFUDWLF 3HRSOH¶V 5HSXEOLF RI .RUHD LV DVVLJQHG HVVHQWLDOO\ WKH VDPH SRYHUW\ UDWH DV &KLQD HYHQ WKRXJK LW UHJXODUO\ UHFHLYHV IRRG DLG IURP &KLQD 6HFRQG VXUYH\V QHHG WR EH UHDVRQDEO\ DFFXUDWH DQG UHSUHVHQWDWLYH EXW WKH :RUOG %DQN XVHV KRXVHKROG VXUYH\V DV DQ DUWLFOH RI IDLWK HYHQ ZKHQ WKH GDWD DUH DW RGGV ZLWK RWKHU VRXUFHV RI LQIRUPDWLRQ ZKLFK LV YHU\ FRPPRQ )RU H[DPSOH LQ WKH FDVH RI ,QGLD WKH VXUYH\ QXPEHUV VXJJHVW WKDW WKH DYHUDJH ,QGLDQ FRQVXPHG SHU \HDU LQ ZKLOH WKH FRXQWU\¶V QDWLRQDO LQFRPH DFFRXQWV LQGLFDWH WKDW KRXVHKROG H[SHQGLWXUH ZDV DERXW WZR DQG D KDOI WLPHV JUHDWHU DW SHU SHUVRQ SHU \HDU 6XFK D GLVFUHSDQF\ VKRXOG KDYH GUDPDWLF LPSOLFDWLRQV IRU ,QGLD¶V SRYHUW\ HVWLPDWHV²D GLIIHUHQFH LQ WKH RUGHU RI KXQGUHGV RI PLOOLRQV 8QFULWLFDO UHOLDQFH RQ VXUYH\ GDWD E\ WKH :RUOG %DQN WKHUHIRUH LPSOLHV WKDW JURZWK LQ ,QGLD¶V KRXVHKROG H[SHQGLWXUH SHU FDSLWD KDV EHHQ RQO\ SHU FHQW SHU \HDU VLQFH WKH HDUO\ V 7KLV DOVR LPSOLHV KDUGO\ DQ\ DFFHOHUDWLRQ RI SHU FDSLWD KRXVHKROG H[SHQGLWXUH DV VXUYH\V UHSRUWHG DQ HTXLYDOHQW JURZWK UDWH RI SHU FHQW GXULQJ ,QGLD¶V SUH UHIRUP SHULRG +RZHYHU FRUUHVSRQGLQJ GDWD IURP WKH QDWLRQDO DFFRXQWV VKRZ WKDW KRXVHKROG H[SHQGLWXUH SHU FDSLWD JUHZ RQ DYHUDJH E\ SHU FHQW DQQXDOO\ RYHU WKH SDVW WZR GHFDGHV 7KXV WKH VXUYH\ GDWD VHHP WR IDLO WR WDNH DFFRXQW RI ,QGLD¶V IDVWHU HFRQRPLF JURZWK 7KH WKLUG GLI¿ FXOW\ LV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK JHQHUDWLQJ JOREDO SRYHUW\ GDWD E\ 2

China dominates the East Asian regional poverty rate because of its vast population.


Poverty matters

• 27

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¶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¶V JOREDO SRYHUW\ HVWLPDWHV H[WHQG RYHU QHDUO\ WKUHH GHFDGHV ZLWK LWV HDUOLHVW HVWLPDWHV EHLQJ IRU 7KURXJKRXW WKLV SHULRG WKH JOREDO KHDGFRXQW EDVHG RQ WKH SRYHUW\ OLQH KDV EHHQ GRPLQDWHG E\ WKUHH ]RQHV FRXQWULHV VXE 6DKDUDQ $IULFD &KLQD DQG ,QGLD 7KHVH WKUHH DFFRXQW IRU D UHPDUNDEO\ FRQVWDQW WKUHH TXDUWHUV RI WKH ZRUOG¶V SRRU <HW SRYHUW\ HVWLPDWHV IRU WKH WKUHH VXIIHU IURP JODULQJ SUREOHPV LQFOXGLQJ LQVXI¿ FLHQW VXUYH\ GDWD À DZHG VXUYH\V DQG IDXOW\ 333 FRQYHUVLRQV ,I WKH SRYHUW\ HVWLPDWHV IRU WKHVH WKUHH FDQQRW EH EHOLHYHG WKHQ QHLWKHU FDQ WKH :RUOG %DQN¶V JOREDO HVWLPDWHV DQG LW PXVW EH DGPLWWHG WKDW NQRZOHGJH RI JOREDO SRYHUW\ LV YHU\ OLPLWHG +RZHYHU WKH H[SHULHQFH RI SRYHUW\ LV LQFUHDVLQJO\ YLHZHG DV PXOWLGLPHQVLRQDO $ ZLGHU XQGHUVWDQGLQJ DQG GH¿ QLWLRQ RI SRYHUW\ DGRSWHG E\ WKH &RSHQKDJHQ :RUOG 6XPPLW IRU 6RFLDO 'HYHORSPHQW LQFOXGHV GHSULYDWLRQ VRFLDO H[FOXVLRQ DQG ODFN RI SDUWLFLSDWLRQ 8VLQJ WKLV EURDGHU GH¿ QLWLRQ WKH VLWXDWLRQ DSSHDUV ZRUVH WKDQ ZKDW WKH PRQHWDU\ LQFRPH SRYHUW\ OLQH ZRXOG VXJJHVW )RU H[DPSOH DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH QHZ 0XOWLGLPHQVLRQDO 3RYHUW\ ,QGH[ 03, RI WHQ LQGLFDWRUV RI VRFLDO GHYHORSPHQW GHYHORSHG E\ $ONLUH DQG 6DQWRV DQG XVHG LQ WKH +XPDQ 'HYHORSPHQW 5HSRUW 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV WKHUH DUH ELOOLRQ SRRU SHRSOH 2I WKHVH SHU FHQW OLYH LQ 6RXWK $VLD SHU FHQW LQ VXE 6DKDUDQ $IULFD SHU FHQW LQ (DVW $VLD DQG WKH 3DFL¿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·V SRSXODWLRQ


28 •

The Twin Challenges of Reducing Poverty and Creating Employment

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

Poverty and vulnerability 5HFHQW HFRQRPLF FULVHV UHPLQG XV WKDW SRYHUW\ LV QRW DQ DWWULEXWH RI D ¿ [HG JURXS EXW UDWKHU D FRQGLWLRQ WKDW DOO YXOQHUDEOH SHUVRQV ULVN H[SHULHQFLQJ 7KH $VLDQ FULVLV RI KDV VKRZQ WKDW SRYHUW\ FDQ JR XS GUDPDWLFDOO\ ZLWKLQ D YHU\ VKRUW VSDQ RI WLPH )RU H[DPSOH WKH SRYHUW\ UDWH LQ ,QGRQHVLD VKRW XS IURP DERXW SHU FHQW WR DERXW SHU FHQW IROORZLQJ WKH ¿ QDQFLDO FULVLV 7KH ¿ QDQFLDO FULVHV EHWZHHQ DQG SXVKHG DSSUR[LPDWHO\ PLOOLRQ WR PLOOLRQ SHRSOH LQWR SRYHUW\ DQG SRVVLEO\ DV PDQ\ DV PLOOLRQ RXW RI D WRWDO RI PLOOLRQ SHRSOH &OLQH $Q HVWLPDWHG PLOOLRQ SHRSOH IHOO EDFN LQWR SRYHUW\ GXULQJ WKH *UHDW 5HFHVVLRQ RI :RUOG %DQN 7KLV LV RQ WRS RI WKH PLOOLRQ WR PLOOLRQ SHRSOH SXVKHG LQWR SRYHUW\ LQ RZLQJ WR VRDULQJ IRRG DQG IXHO SULFHV :RUOG %DQN D 'HVSLWH YDULRXV VKRUWFRPLQJV RI WKH :RUOG %DQN¶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¿ [HG WHUP ZRUN WHPSRUDU\ ZRUN RQ FDOO ZRUN DQG KRPH ZRUNHUV $Q LPSRUWDQW DVSHFW RI SUHFDULRXV ZRUN LV LWV JHQGHUHG QDWXUH DV ZRPHQ DUH FRQWLQXRXVO\ RYHUUHSUHVHQWHG LQ WKLV W\SH RI ZRUN 7KLV WUHQG LV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK UDSLG OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ DQG SHUKDSV JOREDOL]DWLRQ DV ZHOO DV GHFOLQLQJ ZRUNHUV¶ EDUJDLQLQJ SRZHU 3URF\FOLFDO PDFURHFRQRPLF SROLFLHV LQ UHFHQW GHFDGHV IRFXVHG RQ DFKLHYLQJ DQG PDLQWDLQLQJ ORZ VLQJOH GLJLW LQÀ DWLRQ DQG OLPLWHG VRFLDO SURWHFWLRQ PHDVXUHV KDYH H[DFHUEDWHG HFRQRPLF LQVHFXULW\ DQG YXOQHUDELOLW\ 7KH :RUOG 6RFLDO 6HFXULW\ 5HSRUW ,QWHUQDWLRQDO /DERXU 2UJDQL]DWLRQ DVVXPHG WKDW SHRSOH ZKR IDOO XQGHU WKH LQWHUQDWLRQDO SRYHUW\ OLQH RI D GD\ KDYH QR HIIHFWLYH EDVLF VRFLDO SURWHFWLRQ DQG KHQFH DUH YXOQHUDEOH 7KH 5HSRUW DVVHVVHG WKH OHYHO RI YXOQHUDELOLW\ XVLQJ WZR FRPELQHG YDULDEOHV WKH SRYHUW\ UDWH PHDVXUHG


Poverty matters

• 29

DV D SURSRUWLRQ RI SHRSOH OLYLQJ RQ OHVV WKDQ 333 SHU GD\ ZLWKLQ D FRXQWU\ DQG WKH H[WHQW RI LQIRUPDO HPSOR\PHQW PHDVXUHG E\ DV D SUR[\ WKH SURSRUWLRQ RI WKRVH ZKR DUH QRW HPSOR\HHV LQ ZDJH VDODU\ HPSOR\PHQW LQ WKH WRWDO QXPEHU RI HPSOR\HG ,W IRXQG KLJK RU YHU\ KLJK YXOQHUDELOLW\ LQ WHUPV RI SRYHUW\ DQG ODERXU PDUNHW LQIRUPDOLW\ LQ FRXQWULHV FRUUHVSRQGLQJ URXJKO\ WR RQH WKLUG IRU DOO FRXQWULHV %\ WKLV GH¿ QLWLRQ WKH PDMRULW\ RI WKH PRVW YXOQHUDEOH FRXQWULHV DUH LQ $IULFD DQG $VLD

Social protection and vulnerability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¶V ZRUNLQJ DJH SRSXODWLRQ DQG WKHLU IDPLOLHV KDYH HIIHFWLYH DFFHVV WR FRPSUHKHQVLYH VRFLDO SURWHFWLRQ 7KLV LPSOLHV WKDW DERXW ELOOLRQ SHRSOH LQ WKH ZRUOG DUH YXOQHUDEOH WR YDULRXV GHJUHHV

Working poor 7KH ZRUNLQJ SRRU DUH GH¿ QHG DV WKRVH HPSOR\HG EXW HDUQLQJ OHVV WKDQ 333 D GD\ LQ 'HVSLWH ZRUNLQJ WKH\ FDQQRW HDUQ HQRXJK WR JHW RXW RI SRYHUW\ ,Q PDQ\ GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV PRVW SRRU DGXOWV KDYH WR ZRUN LI RQO\ WR VXUYLYH HVSHFLDOO\ LQ WKH DEVHQFH RI DGHTXDWH VRFLDO SURWHFWLRQ 2I WKH ZRUOG¶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edical care; sickness benefit; unemployment benefit; old-age benefit; employment injury benefit; family benefit; maternity benefit; invalidity benefit; and survivors’ benefit.


30 •

The Twin Challenges of Reducing Poverty and Creating Employment

LQ WKH ZDNH RI WKH *UHDW 5HFHVVLRQ (VWLPDWHV RI WKH VKDUH RI ZRUNHUV LQ H[WUHPH SRYHUW\ VXJJHVW WKDW XS WR DQ DGGLWLRQDO SHU FHQW RU PLOOLRQ ZRUNHUV ZHUH DW ULVN RI IDOOLQJ LQWR SRYHUW\ EHWZHHQ DQG 8VLQJ WKH D GD\ SRYHUW\ OLQH XS WR SHU FHQW RU PLOOLRQ ZRUNHUV ZHUH DW ULVN RI IDOOLQJ LQWR SRYHUW\ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO /DERXU 2UJDQL]DWLRQ

Rethinking poverty 7KH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV 5HSRUW RQ WKH :RUOG 6RFLDO 6LWXDWLRQ 5HWKLQNLQJ 3RYHUW\ DQG 3RRU 3RYHUW\ 7KH ,PSRYHULVKPHQW RI $QDO\VLV 0HDVXUHPHQW DQG 3ROLFLHV -RPR DQG &KRZGKXU\ KDYH VRXJKW WR DGYDQFH WKH GHEDWH RQ SRYHUW\ DQG LWV UHGXFWLRQ 7KHVH WZR SXEOLFDWLRQV UHDI¿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¿ FLHQW DQG UHTXLUH VHULRXV UHWKLQNLQJ E\ SROLF\PDNHUV 7KH REVWDFOHV WR UHGXFLQJ JOREDO SRYHUW\ UHPDLQ IRUPLGDEOH QXPHURXV DQG FRPSOH[ DQG KDYH EHHQ H[DFHUEDWHG E\ HFRQRPLF FULVLV &RXQWULHV QHHG WR SULRULWL]H VXVWDLQDEOH GHYHORSPHQW²LQYROYLQJ HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW VRFLDO SURJUHVV DQG HQYLURQPHQW VXVWDLQDELOLW\²LQFOXGLQJ JURZWK RI HPSOR\PHQW DQG LQFRPHV ZLWK VXI¿ FLHQW LQFOXVLRQ EHQH¿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¿ FDF\ RI FRQYHQWLRQDO DSSURDFKHV 5HGXFWLRQV LQ SXEOLF LQYHVWPHQW LQ KHDOWK HGXFDWLRQ DQG RWKHU VRFLDO SURJUDPPHV KDYH D GLVSURSRUWLRQDWH DGYHUVH HIIHFW RQ SHRSOH OLYLQJ LQ SRYHUW\ 7KH\ DUH DOVR PRUH QHJDWLYHO\ DIIHFWHG E\ HFRQRPLF YRODWLOLW\ VLQFH XQVNLOOHG


Poverty matters

• 31

ZRUNHUV WHQG WR ORVH WKHLU MREV ¿ UVW ZKLOH MRE UHFRYHU\ JHQHUDOO\ ODJV EHKLQG RXWSXW UHFRYHU\

Redefining poverty and its eradication %\ PRVW VWDQGDUGV WKHUH KDV EHHQ PRGHVW SURJUHVV JOREDOO\ LQ UHGXFLQJ SRYHUW\ DQG GHSULYDWLRQ RYHU WKH ODVW WKUHH GHFDGHV 2WKHU WKDQ WKH VSHFWDFXODU UHGXFWLRQ RI SRYHUW\ LQ &KLQD DQG RWKHU SDUWV RI (DVW $VLD RYHU WKLV SHULRG SURJUHVV LQ WKH UHVW RI WKH ZRUOG KDV EHHQ GLVPDO :LGH UDQJLQJ GH¿ FLWV LQ WKH KXPDQ FRQGLWLRQ UHPDLQ ZLGHVSUHDG LQ PRVW /,&V EXW DOVR LQ PDQ\ 0,&V 7KLV GLVDSSRLQWLQJ VLWXDWLRQ KDV SHUVLVWHG GHVSLWH VHYHUDO JURZWK VSXUWV DW WKH JOREDO OHYHO DQG VXVWDLQHG JURZWK LQ VHYHUDO ODUJH GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV ,W KDV FRQWLQXHG GHVSLWH SURIHVVHG FRPPLWPHQWV E\ WKH JOREDO FRPPXQLW\ WR WKH 0LOOHQQLXP 'HFODUDWLRQ 7KH VLWXDWLRQ KDV GHWHULRUDWHG ZLWK WKH RQJRLQJ ¿ QDQFLDO DQG HFRQRPLF FULVLV :KLOH WKH WLPLQJ DQG VXVWDLQDELOLW\ RI HFRQRPLF UHFRYHU\ FRQWLQXH WR EH GHEDWHG MRE UHFRYHU\ DQG EHWWHU ZRUN FRQGLWLRQV ZLOO ODJ FRQVLGHUDEO\ EHKLQG ZLWK DGYHUVH FRQVHTXHQFHV IRU UHDO LQFRPHV DQG OLYLQJ FRQGLWLRQV 7KH FRXQWHU UHYROXWLRQ DJDLQVW GHYHORSPHQW HFRQRPLFV 7R\H HQDEOLQJ WKH DVFHQGDQFH RI WKH :DVKLQJWRQ &RQVHQVXV LQ WKH V :LOOLDPVRQ VLJQL¿ FDQWO\ WUDQVIRUPHG WKH GLVFRXUVH RQ SRYHUW\ :DVKLQJWRQ &RQVHQVXV UHIRUPV²LQYROYLQJ PDFURHFRQRPLF VWDELOL]DWLRQ GH¿ QHG DV ORZ VLQJOH GLJLW LQÀ DWLRQ DV ZHOO DV PLFURHFRQRPLF PDUNHW OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK VWUXFWXUDO DGMXVWPHQW²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¿ QDQFLDO FULVHV +RZHYHU WKH UHIRUPV KDYH VORZHG JURZWK DQG H[DFHUEDWHG LQHTXDOLW\ 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV -RPR DQG %DXGRW :DVKLQJWRQ &RQVHQVXV SROLF\ SUHVFULSWLRQV RIWHQ LPSRVHG WKURXJK DLG FRQGLWLRQDOLWLHV KDYH VLJQL¿ FDQWO\ FRQVWUDLQHG SROLF\ VSDFH IRU QDWLRQDO GHYHORSPHQW VWUDWHJLHV )DLOXUH WR VXVWDLQ JURZWK DQG UHGXFHG JRYHUQPHQW UHYHQXHV KDYH DOVR UHGXFHG GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV¶ ¿ VFDO VSDFH 6XFK UHGXFWLRQ RI SROLF\ DQG ¿ VFDO VSDFH KDV JUHDWO\ XQGHUPLQHG VXVWDLQDEOH DQG HTXLWDEOH GHYHORSPHQW ZLWK GLUH FRQVHTXHQFHV IRU PDQ\ GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV 'HYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV ZHUH DOVR H[SHFWHG WR UHGXFH WKH VL]H RI WKHLU SXEOLF VHFWRUV VLJQL¿ FDQWO\ UHGXFLQJ 6WDWH FDSDFLW\ DQG FDSDELOLWLHV 7KXV JRYHUQPHQW FDSDFLW\ ZDV VHULRXVO\ XQGHUPLQHG LQ PDQ\ FRXQWULHV ZKLFK ZHUH DOVR EHLQJ


32 •

The Twin Challenges of Reducing Poverty and Creating Employment

FRHUFHG LQWR OLEHUDOL]LQJ DQG JOREDOL]LQJ RQ XQHTXDO DQG GHELOLWDWLQJ WHUPV 7KH :RUOG %DQN KDV VLQFH HPSKDVL]HG WKH QHHG IRU HFRQRPLF SROLFLHV DQG SROLF\ DGYLFH WR EH PRUH FRXQWU\ VSHFL¿ F DQG LQVWLWXWLRQ VHQVLWLYH 1DQNDQL 7KH JOREDO ¿ QDQFLDO DQG HFRQRPLF FULVLV²WKH ZRUVW VLQFH WKH *UHDW 'HSUHVVLRQ RI WKH V²KDV SURPSWHG UHFRQVLGHUDWLRQ RI PDFURHFRQRPLF SROLFLHV HYHQ ZLWKLQ WKH LQWHUQDWLRQDO ¿ QDQFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQV VHH %ODQFKDUG DQG RWKHUV 7KHUH LV QRZ JUHDWHU UHFRJQLWLRQ RI WKH QHHG IRU FRXQWHUF\FOLFDO PDFURHFRQRPLF SROLFLHV DQG SUXGHQW FDSLWDO DFFRXQW PDQDJHPHQW

Policy lessons 7KH GHFOLQH LQ LQĂ€ XHQFH RI WKH :DVKLQJWRQ &RQVHQVXV DQG WKH DQDO\WLFDO UHWKLQNLQJ SURPSWHG E\ WKH IDLOXUH WR DQWLFLSDWH DQG UHGUHVV WKH RQJRLQJ Âż QDQFLDO DQG HFRQRPLF FULVLV KDV UHVXOWHG LQ VLJQLÂż FDQW QHZ WKLQNLQJ RQ SRYHUW\ DQG LWV UHGXFWLRQ DV VXJJHVWHG HDUOLHU 6RPH RI WKLV UHFHQW QHZ WKLQNLQJ RQ SRYHUW\ FDQ EH VXPPDUL]HG DV IROORZV ‡ 7KH GRPLQDQW PDLQVWUHDP SHUVSHFWLYHV RQ SRYHUW\ DQG GHSULYDWLRQ KDYH IXQGDPHQWDO SUREOHPV OHDGLQJ WR SRRU DQG LQHIIHFWLYH SROLF\ SUHVFULSWLRQV 7KHVH SROLFLHV IDLOHG WR DFFHOHUDWH JURZWK DQG UHGXFH SRYHUW\ VLJQLÂż FDQWO\ DQG ZRUVH LQHTXDOLW\ LQFUHDVHG LQ PRVW FRXQWULHV ‡ :KLOH JURZWK LV XVXDOO\ QHFHVVDU\ IRU SRYHUW\ UHGXFWLRQ WKH JHQHUDWLRQ RI SURGXFWLYH DQG GHFHQW MRE RSSRUWXQLWLHV LV QRW DQ LQHYLWDEOH E\ SURGXFW RI RXWSXW JURZWK DV WKH UHFHQW SUH FULVLV UHFRUG RI MREOHVV RU MRE SRRU JURZWK LPSOLHV ‡ $W WKH VDPH WLPH JURZWK QHHGV WR EH PRUH VWDEOH ZLWK D FRQVLVWHQWO\ FRXQWHUF\FOLFDO PDFURHFRQRPLF VWDQFH DQG EHWWHU FDSDFLW\ WR GHDO ZLWK H[R JHQRXV VKRFNV $OVR FUXFLDO IRU GHYHORSPHQW DUH PHDVXUHV WR SURPRWH VWUXFWXUDO FKDQJH DQG UHGXFH LQHTXDOLW\ VHH 6WLJOLW] DQG RWKHUV 7D\ORU 5 Such policy advice and loan conditionalities were challenged by the World Bank–associated Growth Commission (2008), which noted that â€œâ€Ś no generic formula exists. Each country has specific characteristics and historical experiences that must be reflected in its growth strategyâ€? (p. 2). It also observed: “In recent decades governments were advised to “ ‘stabilize, privatize and liberalize’.... this prescription defines the role of government too narrowly. Just because governments are sometimes clumsy and sometimes errant, does not mean they should be written out of the script. On the contrary, as the economy grows and develops, active, pragmatic governments have crucial roles to playâ€? (p. 6). 6 However, after reviewing International Monetary Fund agreements with 41 crisisaffected countries—including Stand-By Arrangements (SBAs), Poverty Reduction and Growth Facilities (PRGFs) and Exogenous Shocks Facilities (ESFs)—Weisbrot and others (2009) concluded that 31 of them contained procyclical macroeconomic policy prescriptions.


Poverty matters

• 33

‡ $LG FRQGLWLRQDOLWLHV DV ZHOO DV WUHDW\ FRPPLWPHQWV KDYH VLJQL¿ FDQWO\ UHGXFHG GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV¶ SROLF\ VSDFH /RZ JURZWK DQG ORVV RI UHYHQXH RZLQJ WR HFRQRPLF OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ SURJUDPPHV KDYH DOVR UHGXFHG GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV¶ ¿ VFDO VSDFH 6XFK QDUURZLQJ RI SROLF\ DQG ¿ VFDO VSDFH KDV JUHDWO\ GDPDJHG GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV ZLWK GLUH FRQVHTXHQFHV IRU SRYHUW\ DQG GHVWLWXWLRQ VHH -RPR DQG %DXGRW 6WLJOLW] DQG RWKHUV ‡ *HQHUDOO\ HFRQRPLHV ZKLFK KDYH GRQH ZHOO LQ WHUPV RI ERWK JURZWK DQG SRYHUW\ UHGXFWLRQ RYHU WKH SDVW WKUHH GHFDGHV KDYH DGRSWHG SUDJPDWLF KHWHURGR[ HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW SROLFLHV :KLOH RIWHQ LQYRNLQJ WKH ODQJXDJH RI WKH PDUNHW WKH\ KDYH JHQHUDOO\ PDQDJHG WKH PDUNHW WR HQFRXUDJH SULYDWH LQYHVWPHQWV HVSHFLDOO\ LQ GHVLUHG HFRQRPLF DFWLYLWLHV IRU H[DPSOH WKRVH FUHDWLQJ PRUH MRE RSSRUWXQLWLHV RU RIIHULQJ LQFUHDVLQJ UHWXUQV WR VFDOH ‡ 3URJUDPPHV VXFK DV PLFUR¿ QDQFH IRUPDOL]DWLRQ RI ODQG WLWOHV RU JRYHUQDQFH UHIRUPV KDYH QRW VLJQL¿ FDQWO\ UHGXFHG SRYHUW\ 7KH\ KDYH QRW EHHQ HIIHFWLYH LQ WKH IDFH RI IDOWHULQJ JURZWK RU LQ UHGUHVVLQJ LQHTXDOLW\ VHH -RPR DQG &KRZGKXU\ ‡ 6RFLDO SROLFLHV KDYH LQFUHDVLQJO\ LQYROYHG WDUJHWLQJ RVWHQVLEO\ IRU JUHDWHU FRVW HIIHFWLYHQHVV *HQHUDOO\ KRZHYHU XQLYHUVDO VRFLDO SROLFLHV KDYH EHHQ PXFK PRUH HIIHFWLYH DQG SROLWLFDOO\ VXVWDLQDEOH 3ROLFLHV WDUJHWLQJ WKH SRRU RU WKH ³SRRUHVW RI WKH SRRU´ KDYH RIWHQ EHHQ FRVWO\ ZKLOH PLVVLQJ RXW PDQ\ RI WKH GHVHUYLQJ ‡ 6RFLDO SURYLVLRQLQJ DQG SURWHFWLRQ VKRXOG EH LQWHJUDO WR GHYHORSPHQW DQG SRYHUW\ UHGXFWLRQ VWUDWHJLHV %XW VXFK UHGLVWULEXWLYH SROLFLHV FDQQRW EH VXVWDLQHG ZLWKRXW HQVXULQJ UDSLG JURZWK WKXV UDLVLQJ DYHUDJH LQFRPHV DV ZHOO DV ¿ VFDO UHVRXUFHV IRU VRFLDO VSHQGLQJ ‡ &RXQWULHV WKDW KDYH D VRFLDO SURWHFWLRQ À RRU FDQ EHWWHU PLWLJDWH WKH QHJDWLYH LPSDFWV RI VKRFNV DQG SUHYHQW SHRSOH IURP IDOOLQJ GHHSHU LQWR SRYHUW\ $ EDVLF VRFLDO SURWHFWLRQ À RRU LV DIIRUGDEOH LQ PRVW FRXQWULHV DOWKRXJK WKH ORZ LQFRPH DQG OHDVW GHYHORSHG FRXQWULHV ZLOO QHHG DVVLVWDQFH

7 The right to social security contained in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights requires universal social protection to ensure the basic well-being of all individuals, including people living in poverty and those at risk of becoming poor.


34 •

The Twin Challenges of Reducing Poverty and Creating Employment

References $ONLUH 6DELQD DQG 0DULD 6DQWRV $FXWH 0XOWLGLPHQVLRQDO 3RYHUW\ ,QGH[ $ 1HZ ,QGH[ IRU 'HYHORSLQJ &RXQWULHV 2[IRUG 3RYHUW\ +XPDQ 'HYHORSPHQW ,QLWLDWLYH 2+3, :RUNLQJ 3DSHU 1R %ODQFKDUG 2OLYLHU *LRYDQQL 'HOO¶$ULFFLD DQG 3DROR 0DXUR 5HWKLQNLQJ 0DFURHFRQRPLF 3ROLF\ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 0RQHWDU\ )XQG 6WDII 3RVLWLRQ 1RWH )HEUXDU\ &KDQG\ /DXUHQFH DQG +RPL .KDUDV 7KH &RQWUDGLFWLRQV LQ *OREDO 3RYHUW\ 1XPEHUV *OREDO 3RYHUW\ 0LOOHQQLXP 'HYHORSPHQW *RDOV 'HYHO RSPHQW 'HYHORSLQJ &RXQWULHV )RUHLJQ $LG %URRNLQJV ,QVWLWXWLRQ :DVK LQJWRQ ' & 0DUFK $FFHVVHG DW KWWS ZZZ EURRNLQJV HGX UHVHDUFK RSLQLRQV FRQWUDGLFWLRQV SRYHUW\ QXPEHUV NKDUDV FKDQG\ &KHQ 6KDRKXD DQG 0DUWLQ 5DYDOOLRQ $Q XSGDWH WR WKH :RUOG %DQN¶V HVWLPDWHV RI FRQVXPSWLRQ SRYHUW\ LQ WKH GHYHORSLQJ ZRUOG %ULH¿ QJ QRWH 'HYHORSPHQW 5HVHDUFK *URXS :RUOG %DQN &OLQH :LOOLDP )LQDQFLDO &ULVHV DQG 3RYHUW\ LQ (PHUJLQJ 0DUNHW (FRQR PLHV :RUNLQJ 3DSHU 1R &HQWHU IRU *OREDO 'HYHORSPHQW :DVKLQJWRQ ' & -XQH *URZWK &RPPLVVLRQ 7KH *URZWK 5HSRUW 6WUDWHJLHV IRU 6XVWDLQHG *URZWK DQG ,QFOXVLYH 'HYHORSPHQW :DVKLQJWRQ ' & :RUOG %DQN ,QWHUQDWLRQDO /DERXU 2UJDQL]DWLRQ *OREDO (PSOR\PHQW 7UHQGV -DQXDU\ *HQHYD ,QWHUQDWLRQDO /DERXU 2I¿ FH BBBBBBB :RUOG 6RFLDO 6HFXULW\ 5HSRUW 3URYLGLQJ FRYHUDJH LQ WLPHV RI FULVLV DQG EH\RQG *HQHYD ,QWHUQDWLRQDO /DERXU 2I¿ FH -RPR . 6XQGDUDP DQG -DFTXHV %DXGRW HGV )ODW :RUOG %LJ *DSV (FRQRPLF /LEHUDOL]DWLRQ *OREDOL]DWLRQ 3RYHUW\ DQG ,QHTXDOLW\ /RQGRQ =HG %RRNV -RPR . 6XQGDUDP DQG $QLV &KRZGKXU\ HGV 3RRU 3RYHUW\ 7KH ,PSRYHULVKPHQW RI $QDO\VLV 0HDVXUHPHQW DQG 3ROLFLHV %ORRPVEXU\ $FD GHPLF /RQGRQ LQ DVVRFLDWLRQ ZLWK WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV 1HZ <RUN 1DQNDQL *RELQG 7 HG (FRQRPLF *URZWK LQ WKH V /HDUQLQJ IURP D 'HFDGH RI 5HIRUP :DVKLQJWRQ ' & :RUOG %DQN 5HGG\ 6DQMD\ 7KH (PSHURU¶V 1HZ 6XLW *OREDO 3RYHUW\ (VWLPDWHV 5HDSSUDLVHG 3RRU 3RYHUW\ 7KH ,PSRYHULVKPHQW RI $QDO\VLV 0HDVXUHPHQW DQG 3ROLFLHV -RPR . 6XQGDUDP DQG $QLV &KRZGKXU\ HGV %ORRPVEXU\ $FDGHPLF /RQGRQ LQ DVVRFLDWLRQ ZLWK WKH 8QLWHG 1D WLRQV 1HZ <RUN


Poverty matters

• 35

6WLJOLW] -RVHSK -RVH $QWRQLR 2FDPSR 6KDUL 6SLHJHO 5LFDUGR )UHQFK 'DYLV 'HHSDN 1D\\DU 6WDELOLW\ ZLWK *URZWK 0DFURHFRQRPLFV /LEHUDOL]D WLRQ DQG 'HYHORSPHQW 1HZ <RUN 2[IRUG 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV 6XPQHU $QG\ *OREDO 3RYHUW\ DQG WKH 1HZ %RWWRP %LOOLRQ :KDW LI 7KUHH TXDUWHUV RI WKH :RUOG¶V 3RRU /LYH LQ 0LGGOH LQFRPH &RXQWULHV" ,'6 :RUNLQJ 3DSHU 1R 1RYHPEHU 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 6XVVH[ %ULJKWRQ ,QVWL WXWH RI 'HYHORSPHQW 6WXGLHV 7D\ORU /DQFH *URZWK 'HYHORSPHQW 3ROLF\ -RE &UHDWLRQ DQG 3RYHUW\ 5HGXFWLRQ 3RRU 3RYHUW\ 7KH ,PSRYHULVKPHQW RI $QDO\VLV 0HDVXUHPHQW DQG 3ROLFLHV -RPR . 6XQGDUDP DQG $QLV &KRZGKXU\ HGV %ORRPVEXU\ $FDGHPLF /RQGRQ LQ DVVRFLDWLRQ ZLWK WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV 1HZ <RUN 7R\H -RKQ 'LOHPPDV RI 'HYHORSPHQW 5HÀ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


Turn static files into dynamic content formats.

Create a flipbook
Issuu converts static files into: digital portfolios, online yearbooks, online catalogs, digital photo albums and more. Sign up and create your flipbook.