Heroic Anticipation and Perpetuation in 4 Corippus’ Iohannis
By Benedict Braddock LH
Does God reward those who believe in him? 7 If so, why?
By Jasper Blake LH
Does a good government require a 11 strong leader?
By Max Chong M
Entangled in Time 15
By William Buttery Fgh
Theory of Cyclical Market Transparency 17
By Eliazar Marchenko M
A review of research about how tropical cyclones 29 in the Western North Pacific are influenced by climate change
By Sophie Feng Fd
Was the art of the Florentine Renaissance 41 only influenced by the culture of the ancient world?
By Selina Bilgen J
Foreword
As we write this foreword, we are filled with immense pride and gratitude for what the Uppingham Research Journal and our team have achieved over the past year. The idea of creating a student research journal first emerged when I envisioned a platform to showcase the academic talents within our community. Soon after, I reached out to Max, and together, we laid the groundwork for what would become the Uppingham Research Journal. Finalised by us around this time last year, our mission has always been clear: to promote and empower the academic community at Uppingham School and to allow the fascinating research and work produced by our peers to extend beyond the confines of the classroom.
Over the past year, URJ saw tremendous growth and success not only in providing a space for students and scholars to explore their interests, but also in developing our community’s culture of independence and proactive leadership. It has been truly rewarding to see how the journal has encouraged intellectual curiosity, critical thinking, and scholarly excellence among our community members.
This journey would not have been possible without the dedication and passion of our incredible team of Subject Head Editors. It has been a real pleasure for both Max and myself to work alongside such a unique, diverse, and scholarly group of young academics. Their commitment has been the cornerstone of the URJ’s success. We would like to take a moment to thank Azariah Almeida, Selina Bilgen, Jasper Blake, Benedict Braddock, Sophie Feng, Summer Jones, Avignon Lam, William McChesney, Lavinia Martin, Henry Peech, and Rosie Tetlow for their contributions to the URJ. Your continuous contributions have enriched the journal and inspired others to pursue academic excellence.
As the URJ continues to grow and develop with the incoming leadership team, we are confident that the URJ will continue to flourish. The future holds exciting possibilities, and we eagerly anticipate the innovative ideas and fresh perspectives that the new team will bring.
Eliazar Marchenko and Max Chong Co-Founders of Uppingham Research Journal
Heroic Anticipation and Perpetuation in Corippus’ Iohannis
By Benedict Braddock LH
Defining what it means to be a hero after the fall of the Roman Empire in the West is a central concern for Corippus in his epic poem the Iohannis (c.550 CE). Seeking to link both the contemporary military achievements of John Troglita in North Africa and his poetic account of them to the past Classical epic tradition (and to Virgil in particular), while also hoping to secure the eternal fame and future longevity traditionally reserved for epic poets, Corippus constructs a heroic identity defined by the twin polarities of anticipation (a hero’s direct forerunners and precursors) and perpetuation (the continuation or preservation of a hero’s legacy). Through imitation of particularly Virgilian language and themes, careful deployment of analepsis and prolepsis, and adaptation of recognisably epic topoi related to the importance of poetry, Corippus attempts to create an enriched performative event, making contemporary actions seem more important and the epic form more vital, while also raising questions about the continued relevance of the Latin language within the culture of Constantinople.
From the beginning, Corippus establishes his relationship with authors and heroic figures whom he sees as direct precursors for his own epic. He achieves this by drawing attention not only to the deeds of Aeneas, Achilles, and others, in the Preface, presented by implication as analogous to those of John Troglita, but also to suggest their neglection if “literature did not record their ancient labour”; the use of littera for “literature” here, suggesting an entire corpus of writing, indicates that Corippus sees his efforts as part of a continuous tradition of epic composition, even though Latin epic as a form had lain essentially dormant for several centuries before the Iohannis was composed. This general debt to the epic tradition is focused on Virgil’s Aeneid in particular in the succeeding lines, given additional rhetorical weight through a parallelism: Aeneam superat melior virtute Iohannes / Sed non Virgilo carmina digna cano (John is superior to Aeneas in valour, whereas the poem I write is unworthy of Virgil). Although Corippus views himself negatively in comparison to Virgil, the fact that this is the comparison he wants to draw, rather than with any lesser poet, demonstrates his ambition, while also inaugurating a dialogue with aspects of Virgil’s work that continues throughout the epic. It also indicates that Corippus saw certain similarities between his own circumstances and Virgil’s age; just as Virgil wrote his poem as an exploration of Roman values and potential to fit an imperial agenda when a national identity needed to be clarified after the Republic’s fall, so Corippus, writing after the cessation of the Roman Empire in the West, dwells upon questions of Roman identity within a vast oikumene to justify the military exploits of the Byzantine emperors, manipulating the concepts of fides and imperium and the distinction made in the Aeneid between superbi and subiecti on several occasions¹. Corippus’ debt to Virgil is also seen in how he describes religious rites; although the Iohannis is rooted in a Christian context, when John visits the cathedral in Carthage after his first victory against the Romans (6.98-103), the vocabulary used retains Virgilian elements (e.g. templum, sacerdos, munus, and libamen)²; indeed, were it not for the solitary appearance of “Christus” in line 103 (Christoque pater libamina sanxit, the father consecrated the libations to Christ), it would be impossible to ascertain out of context whether a pagan or a Christian ritual is being described. Fundamentally, Corippus sees himself and Virgil united by a desire to link antiquity with current issues: just as Virgil sets the Aeneid in the distant past, but, through descriptions of well-known contemporary customs and reflections on the Roman character, makes it contemporary, so Corippus sets the Iohannis in recent history, but, through the sustained usage of a long-dead epic form and Virgilian diction, links it with a much older poetic heritage.
¹ For example, 1.148-9: hic pietatis amor, subiectis parcere, nostrae est, / hic virtutis honor, gentes domitare superbas (This is our dedication to duty, to spare those made subject; this is our reputation of bravery, to master proud peoples my own translation]), or 6.399-404: …tua, maxime rector, / fama potens animique vigor virtusque fidesque / antes volans gentes pariter conterruit omnes / et gratas ad iura trahit. cervice reflexa / subicit ipsa tuis sese, fortissime, iussis / Astricum gens clara virum… (Word of your powerful reputation, great general, of the vigour of your mind, of your valour and trustworthiness, has flown on before you, at once terrifying all our tribes an drawing them in gratitude to your rule. With bent necks, the renowned race of Astrican men submits itself, brave hero, to your commands [Shea translation]).
² As identified in Shea, The Iohannis or De Bellis Libycis of Flavius Cresconius Corippus (Lewiston, 1998), p. 32
Analepsis and prolepsis are also vehicles for Corippus’ project of heroic anticipation; by co-ordinating analeptic anticipations of key themes developed in the primary narrative, and proleptic glimpses into events anticipated after the primary narrative, the primary narrative itself may be construed as a necessary vortex through which Rome’s tradition must flow in order to be realised as a glorious destiny. The heroic actions and death of John son of Sisinolus recounted in Book III through the voice of the tribune Liberatus (whose name, literally meaning “having been freed”, perhaps itself anticipates the liberation of North Africa at the end of the epic proper) prepare the ground for those of his son, John Troglita; the son’s success where the father had fallen short also conveys a sense of hopeful progression from one generation to the next. The mention of oracles and prophecies (functioning almost as a prolepsis-within-the-analepsis) in Liberatus’ narrative also elevates John Troglita’s significance as a “chosen one”, making the case that he is indeed “superior to Aeneas” more persuasive. The notion that the virtuous qualities of one man could usher in a golden age seems to link Corippus with the panegyrics of Claudian (fl. 400 CE), who adapted the Virgilian restoration of the aurea aetas centred on the person of Augustus to depict a late fourth century golden age centring on his consular patrons such as Stilicho or Theodorus. This sense of a nascent golden age is heightened at the end of the Iohannis; the poem finishes with celebrations after the victory at Antonia Castra, leaving the final ceremonies at Carthage that mark the true end of John’s campaigns (and thus also of the epic) as a future event. For Corippus’ initial North African audiences, this would seem to imply that the epic age was still ongoing, and that they, by close temporal and geographical association with John Troglita’s exploits, could plausibly figure themselves as heroic figures as well, a powerful endorsement of the success of the Byzantine imperial agenda.
Corippus also allies his development of a definition of epic heroism to the established notion that poetry perpetuates, bestowing eternal fame on hero (e.g. Iliad VI.359, ἀνθρώποισι
we may become famous in song for men yet to be) and poet (e.g. Horace, Odes 3.30, usque ego postera / crescam laude recens, I shall grow ceaselessly new-made with praise) alike, amplifying it in the Preface – John’s deeds are “destined to be read by future generations”³. Related to this, and as frequently found (e.g. Virgil, Aeneid VI.625, non mihi si linguae centum sint oraque centum, not if I had a hundred tongues, a hundred mouths) is the “inexpressibility” topos⁴ – when a poet emphasises his inability to cope with the subject, thereby suggesting both its magnitude of importance and the poet’s valiance in attempting to describe it – already encountered in Corippus’ comparison of himself with Virgil, but also occurring in Book VIII, to convey the extent of John’s victory: “Who could name those our general bravely struck down…I shall note in my poem, however, a few of the multitude”.⁵ The frequent occurrence of this technique in contemporary hagiographies – a genre which had great need for panegyrical phraseology, in order to make the saint in question seem as miraculously endowed as possible – may suggest that Corippus’ usage of the topos here is also partially motivated by a desire to make John Troglita seem saint-like, a noble ambassador for Christian virtues, exchanging the healing miracles of a saint for the mass slaughter appropriate for a knight of Christ.
Poetry’s perpetuative value also enabled Corippus to conveniently explain the messy history of imperial North Africa: while in reality, the region remained deeply troubled for many years after John’s campaign, the supposed immortality of Corippus’ poetic version of events would attest to “innumerable disasters” firmly in the past – i.e. not perpetuated – clearly and fully resolved by John’s heroic actions, which would stand the test of time. This poetic aim is reinforced by sustained use of images of light and darkness: at the start of Book III, John’s description of the land as he left it – “fertile and abounding in crops…like a spring of light”⁶ – is contrasted with Gentius’ report of the mystery of what had gone wrong over the
³ Praef. 4, venturo generi facta legenda viri.
⁴ I use the term coined by Ernst Robert Curtius in European Literature and the Latin Middle Ages (London, 1953), p. 159
⁵ VIII.539-532 (with omissions), …quosque ipse magister / deiecit virtute viros? … / … sed carmine paucos / e multis signabo meo…
intervening decade-and-a-half: “the impious origin of the war is hidden from me, completely shrouded in impenetrable darkness”.⁷ The implicit link drawn between impiety, ignorance, and darkness in Gentius’ speech serves also to link together their respective antitheses – Christian virtue, knowledge, and light –aligning the success of John’s exploits as coterminous with the success of Christian imperialism and Corippus’ “illumination” of events. Corippus would return to this image-cluster in his encomium on the accession of Justin II in 566, where the funeral pall of the deceased Justinian is coloured in gold and purple, his foot “crushing the throat of an abject Gelimer while a personified representation of Africa looked on it gratitude”⁸ – a last testament to the joint legacy of John and Corippus.
Beyond these more immediate subjects for perpetuation, in writing the Iohannis Corippus arguably was engaged with a much more existential task: the continuation of Latin as a respectable vehicle for poetic and administrative communication. By the sixth century, Latin was becoming increasingly associated in Constantinople with the barbarian invaders who were now the overlords of the former Western Roman Empire, and thus its use declined. While much of the educated population of Constantinople may have known sufficient Latin to understand Corippus’ works, only a select few would have been able to detect its Virgilian echoes. Nonetheless, Latin persisted as the established language of law in the East; codification of imperial edicts, epitomes of juridical texts, and legal textbooks were all produced in Latin during Justinian’s reign. Given that one of the official reasons stated for the invasion of Africa in 533 was Justinian’s “imperial responsibility to preserve the correct legal order”, it is tempting to read the Iohannis as a quasi-legal text, a document exemplifying heroic moral rectitude. Yet, despite his efforts, Corippus’ attempts at defining in Latin a durable new heroism were short-lived. By the end of the century all new imperial legislation was issued exclusively in Greek, and the total death of the epic genre was seemingly declared just a few decades after Corippus’ own demise, in Venantius Fortunatus’ Ad Iovinum inlustrem ac patricium et rectorem provinciae: Cum venit extrememum, neque Musis carmina prosunt, / nec iuvat eloquio detinuisse melos, Come to the end, small aid is there in the songs of the Muses, / Small joy to be won in prolonging the notes of the song.⁹
Bibliography
Cameron, A. (1976). The early religious policies of Justin II. Studies in Church History, 13, pp.51–67. Collins, R. (1999). Early Medieval Europe, 300-1000, Second Edition. Palgrave Macmillan.
Coombe, C. (2018). Claudian the Poet. Cambridge University Press.
Curtius, E. R. (1953). European Literature and the Latin Middle Ages. Princeton University Press. Flavius Cresconius Corippus (1998). The Iohannis, Or, De Bellis Libycis. Edwin Mellen Press. Horace (2012). Odes and epodes. Translated by N. Rudd. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Havard University Press.
Merrills, A. (2023). War, Rebellion and Epic in Byzantine North Africa. Cambridge University Press. Virgil (1935). Virgil, vol. I : Eclogues, Georgics, Aeneid I-VI. Translated by H. Rushton Fairclough. Cambridge, Ma.: Harvard University.
Waddell, H. (2023). Mediaeval Latin Lyrics. Legare Street Press. Williams, R.D. (1999). Aeneas and the Roman hero. London: Bristol Classical Press.
⁷ III.45-46, impia quae fuerit belli nascentis origo / nos latet, abstrusis penitus contecta latebris.
⁸ Szikora, An Avar Embassy in Constantinople (Corippus: In laudem III, 231-407), p. 123
⁹ Quoted from Waddell, Mediaeval Latin Lyrics (London, 1952), pp. 76-77
Does God reward those who believe in him? If so, why?
By Jasper Blake LH
A divine reward is one that is often described as “Deeper, more spiritual, longer lasting, probably eternal in some respects, and mysterious” than anything we can experience on earth.10 For some, this is the only reason that religion is a part of their lives, simply because the beatific vision is one that is too hard to give up. I would argue these rewards split into two categories, earthly, and eschatological. It will be argued through a process of elimination that only eschatological rewards work, and out of all the salvific processes, universalism is the most convincing. Thus, God does not reward those who believe in him, as he rewards everyone in the form of heaven.
Earthly rewards
One could argue that earthly rewards are possible. There are examples of characters in the Old Testament being rewarded for their belief in God. For example, Abraham was told to leave his homeland to create a new nation.11 God promises in return that he will bless all the families of the earth through him. This promise was fulfilled through the birth of Isaac and through the nation of Israel. Later, Joseph kept his faith in God, even when sold into slavery. He is then rewarded with being elevated into a position of power in Egypt.12 Furthermore, Hannah who has persistent faith in God and prays for a child.13 She is then blessed with the birth of Samuel.14
All of these examples show that in the Old Testament, certain characters were indeed rewarded for their strong belief in God whilst on earth. This would seem to answer part of the initial question: God does appear, in the Old Testament, to indeed reward believers. However, one could argue this divine intervention does not happen on earth anymore, and we can even refute the stories from the Old Testament as well. Christopher Hitchens argues in his 2007 book, God is not Great, that when someone experiences a ‘miracle’, such as the ones experienced by Old Testament characters, there is one of two possibilities: “The first is that the laws of nature have been suspended (in your favour). The second is that you are under a misapprehension or suffering from delusion. Thus, the likelihood of the second must be weighed against the likelihood of the first.”15 He then goes on to argue that when these sightings are not first-hand but second or third, the odds must again be adjusted.16 Here we can use Occam’s razor. This simply means that if there are two explanations for the same phenomenon, one must choose the simpler of the two explanations. Not only can this explanation from Hitchens be used to pose serious doubt over Old Testament rewards, but also supposed ‘modern day miracles’, that some would claim are rewards from God. On the balance of probability, it is far more likely that any ‘miracle’ seen in the past or present was just a misapprehension. Therefore, I would conclude that it is very unlikely that God rewards people in a physical sense whilst on earth.
Eschatological rewards
Reading the Old and New testaments comparatively, one must notice the change in stance in terms of rewards. As discussed above, the Old Testament seemed to have an earthly and physical approach to divine rewards. Whereas the New Testament seems to focus more on eschatological rewards. Some of the most famous examples of this are the parables of the sheep and the goats, found in Matthew 25, and the story of the rich man and Lazarus, found in Luke 16. Both of these examples talk about the glory of heaven, and the reward for being faithful and believing in God. I find this type of reward far more credible than the ones talked about in the Old Testament, for the reason that they are hard to disprove. It is not possible to prove that people don’t go to heaven in the afterlife, therefore it automatically has more credibility than the rewards of the Old Testament.
¹0 (N/A, 2020)
¹¹ Genesis 12 1-4
¹² Gensis 41-45 NIV
¹³ Samuel 1 11 NIV
¹⁴ Samuel 1 20 NIV
¹⁵ (Hitchens, 2007, p. 141)
¹⁶ (Hitchens, 2007)
The Catechisms teach us that Christians who die whilst not being perfectly purified will be cleansed in purgatory.¹⁷ “Those who have responded to the love and piety of God (go) to eternal life.”¹⁸ So, according to the Catholic church, the answer to the initial question is clear: yes, God does reward those who believe in him.
Almost all forms of Christianity teach similar doctrine, if you have faith in God and Christ, and you have good morals, you will go to some sort of heaven that acts as a reward. However, John Calvin would say that this is untrue. He would argue for the theory of unconditional election, meaning that God chose who goes to heaven before we are born, and thus, it does not matter how we behave in this world as we are predestined for heaven.¹⁹ This view would imply that God does not reward us for believing in him, you are rewarded as God chose you. This view stems from the doctrine of Total Depravity, the idea that after the fall, whilst humans may be able to uphold basic moral law, there is still an inner desire to commit sin. The doctrine of unconditional election therefore stems from this as “We cannot respond to the grace of God due to being totally depraved and lost in sin.²0 Therefore, the only way any of us have any hope of salvation is for God to have already made up his mind to step in and choose to disregard the sign of some of us”²¹ however, both of these doctrines are very problematic, they seem to go against scripture as we are told that God does not have any favourites.²² We are also told that God wants everyone to be saved.²³ Jon Mitchelle in his 2022 article about the issues with Calvinism also argues what is the point in warning people not to sin if God only lets some people into heaven anyway.²⁴ Therefore, the Doctrine of Unconditional election does not seem to work well, and does not help us answer the question.
The next salvific doctrine to be examined is that of inclusivism and exclusivism. Exclusivism maintains the idea that only one religion (in this case Christianity) will earn salvation. If this view was to be believed, then the answer to the question originally asked, would be yes. God rewards those who believe in him and only those who believe in him. However, this theory does not go without critics. Gavin D’Costa points out issues: exclusivist do not know their own scripture (there are multiple references in the New Testament for God saving everyone 25), and the second issue is that people of other religions are good and loving people.²⁵Alvin Plantinga talks about the problems with exclusivism stemming from it seeming arrogant and unjust,²⁶ and it is understandable to see why, with exclusivism often being labelled as racist for implying that the location where people are born determines whether they will be saved or not.
A slightly less extreme version of this view is inclusivism. This is the belief that aspects of other religions are also true, along with the one true belief system, in this case, Christianity. As there are elements of truth in other faiths, there is the possibility of salvation for non-Christians, but you are expected to convert to Christianity as it is the only means to salvation.
“Salvific pluralists, however, find such reasoning no more convincing than that offered by exclusivists.” 28 John Hick argues that inclusivists are still wrong as they say there is still a criterion that needs to be met before salvation occurs. Thus, inclusivism is still not plausible.
¹⁷ Catechism of the Catholic Church 1030
¹⁸ Solemni Hac Liturgia (Credo of the People of God) (June 30,1668) Paul VI
¹⁹ (Calvin, 1559, p. Chaper 21 “Of the Eternal Election”)
²0 (Muller, 2012, p. 51)
²¹ (Mitchell, 2022)
²² Acts 10 34-35 NIV
²³ Timothy 2 4 NIV
²⁴ (Mitchell, 2022)
²⁵ (D’Costa, 1996 )
²⁶ (Plantinga, 1995)
One of the biggest proponents of this is the theologian, David Bentley Hart who presents his arguments for universalism in his 2019 book That All Shall Be Saved. The first ‘mediation’ of the book is an argument that is grounded in classical Christian metaphysics. The argument follows that if everything was created from nothing (Ex Nihilo), and God created everything, it would not make sense for God to create something that is not good like him.²⁷
He then goes on to make arguments on the idea that it is not man’s fault that we sin. His first free will argument, human actions are split into two parts, intellect and will. Our intellect helps us to recognise what is good, and our will drives us towards that good. We make bad choices and sin when we desire something good in itself but miss out on a greater good. For example, one might steal to instantly gain money, but they miss out on the wider process of earning a career.²⁸ The second free will argument that he presents is that “If willing is simply being drawn to the good, and God is the Good, then all wills are drawn to God.”²⁹ Thus, to be completely free, your will has to be completely drawn to the Good, which is God. Therefore, anyone that is not free denies God and sins. But as they are not free, it is not their fault and should not be punished.³0 “Since all humans who sin are not fully free, they cannot merit full (eternal) punishment. Therefore, hell must be temporal, and humans are inexorable drawn toward God as they gain more knowledge.”³¹
If both of these free will arguments are to succeed, then it makes a system of universal process more likely and just.
This leads me to consider why he does. It could be for the simple answer that God is omnibenevolent. His love for us, his creation, outweighs any sin that we might commit. The argument that our sin is always finite and thus how is it just that you suffer an infinite punishment as a consequence, springs to mind. Also, a God of true infinite love would not only elect a few members of his creation to be saved, as the exclusivist would lead you to believe.
However, the universalist argument is not without critics. Many say, understandable, that it is not loving of God to send people who sin to hell. Many argue that it is not loving to not have justice. Thus, we cannot say “God sends us all to heaven as he loves us so much.” as some say that it is, in fact, not a loving thing to do. Some of these arguments refer to the idea of ‘no love without justice’.³² C.S Lewis makes the argument that universalism violates our free will as “If hell is for those who choose it, then by saving everyone God violates our free will.”³³ Universalists cannot deny this; however, you can still turn to the classical doctrine of revealed theology to support the argument.
Karl Barth argues that ever since the fall, humans have been so corrupted by original sin, that we could never be able to understand God. Although this does seem to undermine the whole point of this essay, it can be used to understand this ambiguity. Although we may never know specific details about God’s nature, according to Thomas Aquinas, we can still know certain features of him. One of these features that we know must exist for God to be aligned with a classical theistic interpretation, is omnibenevolence. For John Hick, the existence of hell is incompatible with God’s omnibenevolence; I agree with him. Going to hell an infinite amount of time, as punishment for a finite sin does not seem at all fair, just, or loving. So, although universal salvation has weaknesses in terms of justness, it still seems more just than an eternal hell. Thus, we can conclude that although the details on how or why universalism happens may not be
²⁷ (Hart, 2019, pp. 35-36)
²⁸ (Hart, 2019)
²⁹ (Joss, 2020)
³0 (Hart, 2019)
³¹ (Joss, 2020)
³² (Duran, 2011)
³³ (Duran, 2011)
known to us at this moment, we can still be confident that it is the correct salvific process due to our knowledge that God is omnibenevolent.
Therefore, to answer back to the question, God cannot and does not reward those that just believe in him, as everyone receives an eschatological reward, of eternal life in heaven.
Bibliography
Basinger, D., 2004. Religious Diversity (Pluralism). [Online]
Available at: https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/religious-pluralism/ [Accessed 20 June 2024].
Calvin, J., 1559. Institutes of the Christian Religion, Book 3. s.l.:s.n.
Craig, W. L., 2010. Perfect Being Theology. [Online]
Available at: https://www.reasonablefaith.org/writings/question-answer/perfect-being-theology [Accessed 19 June 2024].
D’Costa, G., 1996 . The Impossibility of a Pluralist View of Religions”. s.l.:s.n.
Duran, M., 2011. 13 Problems with Universalism. [Online]
Available at: https://www.mikeduran.com/2011/03/09/13-problems-with-universalism/ [Accessed 24 June 2024].
Hart, D. B., 2019. That All Shall Be Saved. Yale : Yale. Hitchens, C., 2007. God is Not Great. New York : s.n.
Hundley, M., 2015. heaven and Earth. Oxford : Oxford Univserity press . Joss, M., 2020. Review: That All Shall Be Saved. [Online]
Available at: https://theology.wp.st-andrews.ac.uk/2020/01/29/review-that-all-shall-be-saved/ [Accessed 14 June 2024].
McGrath, A. E., 1995. The Christian Theology reader. Oxford: Blackwell. Mitchell, J., 2022. The problem With Calvinism’s Doctrine of Unconditional Election. [Online]
Available at: https://predenominationalchristianity.com/2022/07/05/the-problem-with-calvinismsdoctrine-of-unconditional-election/ [Accessed 13 June 2024].
Muller, R. A., 2012. Calvin and the Reform Tradition. Michigan: Baker Academic . N/A, 2020. REWARD! Radishes and Mangoes. [Online]
Available at: https://toenjoygod.com/tag/divine-reward/#:~:text=And%20that%20is%20where%20 the,in%20some%20respects%2C%20and%20mysterious. [Accessed 24 June 2024].
Plantinga, A., 1995. Pluralism: A Defense of Religious Exlcusivism. s.l.:Cornell University Press . Wright, J. E., 2000. The Early History of Heaven. Oxford : Oxford University Press .
Does a good government require a strong leader?
By Max Chong M
Introduction
In both democratic and communist systems, there is a considerable consensus that having a strong leader is crucial. The ways in which leaders are valued vary significantly between the two systems, although it cannot be denied that both recognise that they possess a superior degree of certain personal traits. In the 18th century, people with the greatest height continued to be a strong attribute of a strong leader. As Adam Smith posits, leadership can be determined by the superiority of fortune and the superiority of birth. The principal assumption that leadership is a congenital decision remains unconvincing, allowing society to undermine their qualifications and personalities, severely undermining the leadership’s legitimacy.
While the value of good governance has a long-established relationship with high economic growth, low inequality, and ordered public services; Francis Fukuyama, in his book ‘Political Order and Political Decay’ argued that not only does it extend to the rule of law and accountability of government, but also delivering better results to be regarded as legitimate.³⁴ That said, when the expectation of people expands, legitimacy is no longer restricted to being a formal or legal authority; it is also concerned if the government can offer change with wisely examined planning. The aftermath of the Chinese Civil War urged the communist government to restore stability at an economic and military level. Mao Zedong, often described as an “anti-economics” person³⁵, failed to contribute any economic legacies to postreform China. In fact, a common criticism of his chaos such as the Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution, originated from his lack of expertise, close-mindedness, and ultimately the lack of wise economic plans.
In this essay, I argue that a legitimate and strong leader is essential for good governance for the following three reasons. First, the nature of extreme political polarisation exemplifies the importance of the leader’s adaptive skills. Second, a strong leader who brings a transformative change in the political system requires innovative thinking. Third, a strong leader should facilitate pragmatism over ideology in governance to address the political complexities.
In periods of significant political polarisation, the political environment inherently favours leader who possesses traits that make it their rate to reach positions of leadership.³⁶ There is strong evidence indicating different leadership skills and traits are required in different circumstances. For example, the situation created by Hitler’s demand in 1938 that the Sudetenland be ceded to Germany was defined in essentially local terms by Neville Chamberlain who was determined to withhold the principle of appeasement. Chamberlain’s definition of the situation shown in the Munich Agreement reflects his idealism and political naivety. Hence, this is a turning point for the nature of political leadership; it is no longer adequate to be intellectually capable, but emotional identification and sympathy turn out to be critical for the leader to grasp a better understanding of the situation. Leaders such as Alexander Dubček have demonstrated his compassionate feeling for open dialogues and the toleration of radical discussions in Socialist Czechoslovakia, hence enabling him to define the situation where withholding Soviet-style censorship was no longer a sustainable motive.
Indeed, it is a profound observation that good leaders exist only if they provide a fundamental and innovative reconstruction of the political system. Ordinary leaders often have an inhibited perception by past stereotypes, making it utterly inviable in the long run. An opposing example is Gorbachev’s democratisation of the Soviet Union. The consistent economic stagnation made it inevitable for
³⁴ Barber, M. (2015) How to Run A Government. Penguin Books. Page XXV
³⁵ Nakagane, K. (eds) Studies on the Chinese Economy During the Mao Era. Studies in Economic History. Springer, Singapore
³⁶ Tucker, R. C. (1977). Personality and Political Leadership. Political Science Quarterly, 92(3), 383–393.
Gorbachev to introduce Perestroika and Glasnost - eliminate bureaucratic opposition and economic reconstruction. The extraordinary capacity of Gorbachev is his achievement to liberalise the Soviet Union without any precedents. Gorbachev pointed out in the 1988 Nineteenth Conference of the Soviet Communist Party, “Every country should have the freedom to choose its way of life and social structure” hence, “without political manoeuvring, it’s no good even to think about moving aside the powerful bureaucracy.”³⁷ A transformational leader like Gorbachev succeeded in adopting democratic values to the dogmatism of the Soviet Union. Like Charles De Gaulle, Gorbachev proved his view that there can be no democracy without an authoritative executive. The pragmatic nature of Gorbachev in providing transformational social progress, despite his power being severely weakened by the August 1991 Coup, is one of a leader’s most superior personal traits.
Pragmatism has proved to be a requisite for strong leaders to address the complexities and uncertainty of modern society. However, the danger is that leaders often underestimate the complexities of politics, forming a custom of oversimplifying sophisticated political issues, also known as Punch and Judy politics. From Boris Johnson’s Brexit and prorogue of parliament, Cameron’s austerity, to Truss’ Mini-budget, it reflects the lack of detailed plans to bring change to the political system. The radical nature of these policies often originates from the strong desire to change, but politicians knew the strictness of separation of power reflects the limited scope of action of the executive. In particular, extreme bipartisanship and the recorded low turnout rates in elections add extra implications to providing a mandate for the executive branch. Hence, well-developed skills in negotiation and organisation are particular requisites for good leadership.
Citing a different example in Mao’s China, the troubles followed by the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution particularly represent the circumstances where pragmatism conflicts with poor organisation skills. After the Chinese Civil War, it was increasingly clear that communists had to establish a superior status in society, hence by no means the solution adapted was to transform the Chinese economy from agrarian to industrial.³⁸ The emphasis on mass mobilisation and backyard furnaces of steel production utterly neglected the possibilities of inefficiencies and resource wastage. The result of the largest famine in world history, followed by the chaos of grassroots insurrections in the cultural revolution, demonstrated the flaw of superficially strong political leadership. On the other hand, Deng, Mao’s successor, had an extraordinary capacity to grasp the key mistake from Maoism, and his negotiation skills with stakeholders. His way to revive the regime was whilst embracing a systematic change in the economy, he firmly resisted qualitative change of the political system and further strengthened his monopoly of power in the party. Establishing an undeniably strong leadership in the country became key to the execution of the 1978 Reform and Opening-up policy. The emphasis on incorporating market mechanisms into the socialist economy and Socialism with Chinese characteristics is particularly fundamental to establishing order within the regime and the society.
It is well-established that a mainstream perception of a good government is delivering economic growth, acquisition of property, and human rights, ordering public services, and being subject to checks and balances. Having said this, the established institutions are obliged to encourage and protect public opinion and open debate. However, this starkly contrasts the Chinese perception of a good government. The Chinese, systematically influenced by Confucianism, perceive social stability and harmony as creating good governance. A government can only be effective if it fulfils the premise of providing efficiency and ordered
³⁷ Brown, A. (2015) The Myth of the Strong Leader. Vintage Publishing. Page 168-169
³⁸ Lu, H. (2015). The Tastes of Chairman Mao: The Quotidian as Statecraft in the Great Leap Forward and Its Aftermath. Modern China, 41(5), 539–572. http://www.jstor.org/stable/24575638
³⁹ Eberstein, B. (1977). China’s History in Chinese Dress: The struggle between Confucianism and Legalism: Recent developments in Chinese historiography.
rule,³⁹ therefore defiance against tyranny or authoritarianism is rare. Still, I argue that an inspirational leader who places himself between the two perceptions makes the most effective governance.
This brings us to the theme of benevolent dictatorship. A benevolent dictatorship is a form of leadership that holds significant power but claims to exercise it for the sake of the population. Twentieth-century Singapore has familiarised us with its desperation after expulsion from Malaysia in 1965. With its lack of natural resources, unprecedently high unemployment rates and the series of race riots between Malay and Chinese, it’s not controversial to say the situation in 1965 is nothing but a product of an ineffective government. The implementation of strict censorship, suppression of dissent and the use of defamation suits against political opponents, identified Lee’s legalist perception⁴0 that ordered society is a prerequisite for generating growth and improving the quality of life. Hence, when Singapore evolves into a stage with steady economic growth and political stability, it can be observed that democratic values are restored. For example, the opposition party WP had recorded the highest number of votes in parliamentary history, with the introduction of non-constituency members of parliament, providing an effective check and balances within the political system. Hence, effective governance also underlies the flexibility of the leadership, optimising the balance of democracy and despotism based on different political circumstances.
It is dangerous to fantasise that a strong leader naturally provides good governance. In fact, the political destiny of a strong leader is itself a recurrent pattern. That said, when a liberal reformer emerges somewhere in the world, western politicians weigh in offering assistance. Hence, the contradictions in core values emerge. The liberal reformer becomes increasingly authoritarian, and eventually, disillusionment sets in.⁴¹ A prime example will be Robert Mugabe, the former Prime Minister of Zimbabwe. He was first a liberation hero because he organised guerrilla warfare against the Rhodesian government during the one crucial in pressuring the colonial government to negotiate for independence. But his bloodily powerful leadership evolved into widespread atrocities, and the use of the North Korean-trained Fifth Brigade and the Gukurahundi massacres had resulted in a series of moral questions. Although he was successful in transitioning Zimbabwe into an independent nation, the lack of opposition turned the politics into despotism and severe corruption, which eventually led to economic destruction. This reflects that a checked government is particularly vital in countries with a transformational change in governmental institutions.
Hence, the terminology “strong leader” is dangerous as it leads to the question – is it morally righteous to compare democratically elected leaders with unelected autocrats such as Xi or Khamenei? While it seems that a pragmatic approach will neglect moral or ideological considerations, Henry Kissinger’s approach to Sino-American relations is a prime example of this idea. The principled pragmatism describes a foreign policy approach that combines realism and idealism, that said, a country acts in its national interests and security while at the same time upholding its values and principles. In particular, the historic 1972 visit to China could only have occurred, by balancing the scientific reasoning and prioritising them for actions, while considering the constraints imposed by the context. That said, such a pragmatic approach enabled Kissinger to form a triangular diplomacy that limited the soviet influence, albeit the character of China in the Vietnam War facilitated a limitation in its practical capabilities.⁴²
On the other hand, Western democracies’ selective engagement with unelected autocrats has led to inconsistencies in foreign policy. For example, the former president of Egypt Hosni Mubarak, was supported by the United States to provide their security interest. This involves the mass suppression of political
⁴0 Christie, K. (1998). Illiberal Democracy, Modernisation and Southeast Asia. Theoria: A Journal of Social and Political Theory, 91, 102–118. http://www.jstor.org/stable/41802094
⁴¹ Rachman G. (2023) The Age Of The Strongman. Penguin Random House. Page 173-174
⁴² Kissinger. H. (2015) World Order, Penguin Books. Page 226-227
opponents, leading to extensive crackdowns in 2013 between the Muslim population and other political dissidents. Hence, this is a clear reflection that the strongest leader in diplomacy must not be mindfully dominated by ideology but must balance practicality and constraints in context.
Conclusion
The general perception that modern politics adheres to “effective and strong leadership” is notably convincing. In many respects, the legitimacy of leadership does not mainly rely on representative processes or their ideologies. The best governance can only be provided if an authentic relationship is established with the genuine needs of the people. Sadly, political polarisation constantly prevails; it is fundamentally mistaken that the most effective leaders are those who bypass the existing institutional machinery. The problem with “strong leadership” was always that it failed to coexist with collective decision-making. It also represents an unstable form of government that is relatively short-lasting. Whether strong leadership will fulfil the genuine needs of the people remains a matter of controversy. However, it remains to be seen that good governance relies on institutions, but certainly not individuals. When strong and collective leadership becomes more widely shared, it will undoubtedly deepen our understanding of the nature of political leaders.
Entangled in Time
By William Buttery Fgh
The concept of time travel has been discussed since humans could converse, but it has always simply been a case of science fiction. I will investigate a phenomenon that seems to occur when you consider the applications of special relativity and quantum entanglement in one situation. I will first outline the theories that I will be discussing, and then I will consider the implications that these properties suggest and examine whether the idea of time travel is really as outrageous as it may seem.
Quantum entanglement is a fascinating concept; it is a phenomenon when two or more particles become linked so that the state of one particle, when measured, instantly determines the state of the other, no matter how far apart they may be. They could be light years apart from each other, and the collapse of the first electron wave function would instantly collapse the other’s. This perplexed Albert Einstein when he found out about this as it violated his own law, the universal speed limit, which states that nothing can travel faster than light. When Einstein learned that information could be passed from one electron to another over light years of distance, he famously described it as ‘spooky action at a distance’. However, this idea that information can break such laws has more implications than you may think. Before I explore that we need to be familiar with another theory: the special theory of relativity.
Special relativity was first introduced in Einstein’s 1905 paper titled ‘On the Electrodynamics of Moving Bodies’. In this paper, Einstein provided the most accurate model of motion for any speed (when gravitational and quantum effects are negligible)[1], which opened the doors to many new theories, some of which were later verified in experiments. One of these theories is time dilation; if someone were to travel at very high speeds or were in a very strong gravitational field (whether using the special or general relativistic approach), they would experience time at a slower rate compared to someone on Earth. As a real-life example, astronauts Sergei Krikalev and Sergey Avdeev have both experienced 20 milliseconds more time than we have on Earth due to their time spent moving at 28,000 kph on the ISS[2]. If we can observe the effect from a mere 28,000kph (0.0025% speed of light), then the impact of such speeds on tiny particles moving close to the speed of light will be much more significant. If we consider a specific situation where entanglement and special relativity work together, a scenario could arise in which information seems to travel through time.
Let’s set up a situation where this might be possible and discuss its validity and the implications it could have. To begin, we need two particles that are entangled with one another. These particles can be electrons, photons or even small molecules[3]. For this situation, we will use electrons as their speeds can be controlled, and they can travel at high speeds. Once these electrons are entangled, they are held in different locations. We then apply a potential difference to one of the electrons, accelerating it to a speed close to the speed of light. Due to the time dilation that the electron would experience at such a high speed (electrons have been accelerated to >99% the speed of light[4]), the electron that was accelerated would
experience time slower and would, therefore, have crossed the same amount of space-time as the other electron, be in a different time frame. This is visualised in the graph on the right. We can then measure a property of one of the electrons, such as its spin or polarisation, which would collapse the wave function of both entangled electrons. This means it would appear that the properties of the electron in the other time frame have been changed as a result of the observation. Consequently, it would appear as though information has been sent through time.
What does this mean? If this works and you wanted to send information to the future, you would interact with the accelerated electron and vice versa. However, this would create many paradoxes, such as the grandfather paradox[5]. While the exact ‘grandfather paradox’ situation itself wouldn’t happen, similar paradoxical situations with the same premises could. If one sent their past self a signal with the entangled electrons to do something (e.g. buy a winning lottery ticket), this would alter the future and open a new timeline in which the person was rich and hadn’t sent the message to their past self. This immediately contradicts our earlier choice to ignore the many-worlds theory, as the only way in which this paradox could be solved would be if there were infinite dimensions.
Before we dive too deeply into the rabbit hole of logical possibility, we should consider the validity of the previously mentioned theories. While the two individual phenomena are well-researched and considered the most accurate models to date, the notion that information is actually sent between electrons when the entanglement is destroyed is not quite accurate. In a quantum entanglement, two electrons are connected, and both electrons are in a superposition of multiple states. When one of the electrons has its properties measured, the wave function (description of possible states) is collapsed, and the superposition breaks, collapsing the wave function of the other electron. This seems to us as though the properties of the unmeasured electron have changed. This is why Einstein thought it was spooky because it shouldn’t be possible. While it appears that the second electron has changed its properties instantaneously, no actual information is transferred between them[6]. This lack of information transfer is why time travel via quantum entanglement is not possible. The collapse of the wave function happens universally and instantaneously, but no usable information has physically travelled.
We can, therefore, conclude that with current research, it seems as though time travel is not possible in this way. Although it might appear as though the information is sent through time when we take a deeper look and consider the nuances of each phenomenon, we can uncover the technicalities that show this is not the case. Time travel, as fascinating as it may seem, remains in the realm of science fiction… for now.
Theory of Cyclical Market Transparency
By Eliazar Marchenko M
Abstract
This paper introduces the cyclical market transparency (CMT) theory - a concept of cyclical market transparency levels, presenting a view that transparency in a market, like economic growth levels, varies over the period of the economic cycle. The theory suggests that the clarity of market operations and the “transparency level” in a market vary over the economic cycle; this idea can be applied both to the macroeconomic performance of the economy overall and the performance of an individual firm or market. Transparency level will be defined as the degree to which information about the operations, financial performance, and regulatory compliance of companies within that market is available and understandable to all stakeholders, including investors, regulators, and the general public. This includes data on financial performance, regulatory compliance, corporate governance, and market operations. This model reflects that market transparency improves during periods of economic boom because of increased regulations and corporate disclosures driven by economic activity and higher levels of scrutiny.
Introduction
This paper discusses how transparency levels can act both as a driver and a reflection of economic health. In this paper, a model is developed to measure this relationship, using a mixed-method approach to data analysis on transparency, employing quantitative data on transparency indices and economic performance indicators across several business cycles in major economies, along with qualitative case studies from specific economic downturn and recovery periods.
The analysis in this paper aims to enhance understanding of how economic policies and corporate strategies can be adjusted to consider and make use of the cyclical nature of transparency levels. By considering cyclical shifts in transparency, policymakers and business leaders could potentially stabilise market dynamics and establish more robust economic systems. The results of this study carry significant implications for policy, corporate governance and investment approaches by highlighting the importance of transparency in improving economic stability and efficiency.
In contemporary economic analysis, the importance of transparency in market activities and corporate governance is seen as a critical element that impacts investor, business, and consumer confidence, regulatory performance and overall market efficiency. Traditional economic theories have extensively covered the impact of information asymmetry in markets, highlighting how differences in access to information can result in below-optimum results (Akerlof, 1970; Stiglitz, 2000). However, there has been limited exploration into how transparency changes over the stages of the economic cycle.
The importance of understanding and modelling the cyclical nature of the transparency levels pattern holds significant implications in many aspects of the macroeconomy. Policymakers could improve the impact and efficiency of regulatory frameworks by timing interventions to address transparency’s cyclical nature. This insight into transparency cycles could provide investors and financial analysts with a new perspective on market analysis, potentially enhancing the precision of market forecasts and investment choices.
The CMT theory proposes that transparency levels tend to increase during times of economic recovery and boom as companies and regulatory bodies increase the disclosure of information to take advantage of positive investor sentiment and adhere to stricter regulations. Conversely, during periods of economic downturn and recession, there is a trend towards decreased transparency as businesses may try to obscure their performance, and regulatory agencies could be limited in their ability to enforce regulations. This also applies to market reports, which may tend to be more optimistic during periods of economic boom and in downturn and recession due to a lag time, as well as being more pessimistic during periods of recession and recovery due to the lag time.
Furthermore, the theory discusses the concept of a behavioural lag time in adjusting transparency levels, wherein changes in transparency do not immediately match shifts in the economic cycle stage. This delay is attributed to lingering market sentiments that are slow to adapt to economic realities. This aspect of the theory incorporates insights from economics, suggesting that human behaviour and cognitive biases can hinder the adjustment of transparency practices in response to changing environments. For example, Barberis, Shleifer and Vishny (1998) have highlighted how behavioural factors can impact decisionmaking, leading to bubbles that may not be aligned with the underlying economic fundamentals.
Theoretical Framework
I Conceptual Underpinnings
a) Economic Cycles and Market Behaviour
The theoretical foundation of the Cyclical Market Transparency (CMT) theory is rooted in the theory of economic cycles, first proposed by Schumpeter (1939), who described them as being influenced by waves of technological innovations, leading to booms and downturns. Additionally, Keynes (1936), discussed how the variations in aggregate demand could lead to cycles in employment of factors of production in the economy and varying levels of real output of the economy. These classical theories suggest that economic cycles influence the behaviour of economic agents and regulatory environments, which are critical to understanding shifts in market transparency.
b) Information Asymmetry and Market Transparency
The role of information and information asymmetry has been explored by Akerlof (1970), in his pivotal work on the “market of lemons”, which highlighted how information lack on either side of a trade – information asymmetry – can lead to market failure. Extending on this idea, Merton (1987) emphasised the significance of transparency – and thus information provisions – in ensuring the efficient operation of financial markets by minimising information symmetry among investors. Research in this area suggests that increased transparency is linked to market outcomes during periods of economic growth when high-quality information is more accessible and widely shared.
c) Behavioural Economics and Market Responses
Behavioural Economics provides an insight into why transparency levels may not adjust instantaneously and, thus, have a lag time between cycle stage changes. Kahneman and Tversky’s (1979) prospect theory explains how an individual’s decisions are influenced by cognitive biases and illustrates how people’s choices are frequently swayed by irrational factors and are not consistently in line with the principle of maximising utility. By using these findings, the delay in making adjustments in CMT can be linked to cognitive biases, such as overconfidence in prosperous times and heightened pessimism during economic downturns, impacting both how companies disclose information and how investors respond.
By integrating these theories, the CMT theory suggests that market transparency doesn’t just react but goes through a cyclical pattern shaped by the wider economic cycle, human behavioural biases, and regulatory changes. According to this model, in times of economic growth, transparency tends to rise as firms face higher levels of investigation and scrutiny and have a stronger motivation to disclose information to attract investments. Conversely, in times of economic downturn, there is a tendency to conceal unfavourable information, especially when faced with regulatory restrictions and limited resources.
II Visual Representation
III Mathematical Representation
The Cyclical Market Transparency (CMT) theory can be represented through a dynamic econometric model that captures the relationship between market transparency and economic cycles while accounting for behavioural lags. The model incorporates various economic and behavioural indicators to quantify the impact of transparency on market performance and vice versa.
a) Defining Variables
Tt: Transparency Level at time t.
GDPt: Nominal Gross Domestic Product at time t.
Lt: Behavioural Lag Time, representing the time it takes for transparency levels to adjust to changes in GDP.
ϵt: Error term.
b) Formulating an equation
Tt = α+β1 GDPt+β2 GDPt-1+γLt+ϵt
Where:
• Tt represents the level of market transparency at time t.
• α is the intercept term, it is a constant term that provides a baseline level of transparency when all other variables are zero. It adjusts the curve up or down on the graph, setting where the line would intercept the y-axis if all independent variables were zero.
• β1 GDPt: this term involves the coefficient β1 multiplied by the GDP at time, t.β1 measures the immediate impact of economic output on transparency within the same time period. If β1 is positive, an increase in GDP at time, t, is associated with an increase in transparency level at time, t.
• β2 GDPt-1: this term captures the effect of the previous period’s GDP on the current transparency level. β2 is the coefficient showing the impact of GDP from one period earlier, GDPt-1, on the current level of transparency at the time, t. This can indicate how past economic conditions continue to affect the current transparency levels.
• γ quantifies the effect of lag time Lt. Where Lt is a variable that might include other past influences or conditions not captured by GDP alone. Thus, γ quantifies how these lagged factors influence current transparency and is derived from behavioural economic theories indicating that market behaviours adjust with a delay to changes in economic conditions.
c) Behavioural Lag Representation
To further detail L_t, it can be modelled as a function of past transparency levels and economic activities, reflecting the persistence of past behaviours and market sentiments, such that:
Lt = δTt-1+θGDPt-2
Where:
• Tt represents the lagged effect on transparency level at time, t. It is the dependent variable in this part of the model, reflecting the cumulative impact of past behaviours and economic conditions on current transparency level.
• δTt-1: where δ is a coefficient measuring the influence of the transparency level from the previous period, Tt-1, on the current transparency level Lt. This term quantifies how previous transparency behaviours continue to affect transparency in the current period. Thus, if δ is large, it suggests that the transparency level from the last period has a strong influence on the current period, indicating persistence in transparency behaviour.
• θGDPt-2: this term represents the impact of the economic output from two periods ago, t-2, on the current transparency lag. Additionally, θ, is the coefficient that measures how changes in economic conditions two periods back influence the current transparency level. This term captures the idea that economic effects on transparency may not be immediate but may arise after a delay.
IV. Data Analysis
In data analysis, two market transparency proxy indicators will be used – the Corruption Perception Index and the World Values Survey. The Corruption Perception Index (CPI) created by Transparency International acts as a tool for evaluating how corruption is perceived in public sectors across different countries. By gathering opinions from experts and business leaders, it has become a respected measure of transparency within governments. In this analysis, CPI is used as an indicator of market transparency, for several reasons:
1. CPI reflects perceptions of corruption, which directly impact the transparency and integrity of market operations. Higher corruption perceptions generally indicate lower levels of transparency in government transactions.
2. CPI scores are taken annually, so small changes can be tracked, particularly in the context of shortrun economic growth and downturn.
While the Corruption Perception Index (CPI) provides a useful estimate of transparency level in the economy, it’s crucial to recognize the constraints linked to its use as an indicator of market transparency:
1. The CPI relies on subjective views and perceptions and may be influenced by biases inherent in any opinion-based metric. Different stakeholders may have different experiences and insights, which could influence their perceptions and, consequently, the CPI scores.
2. The CPI only measures the perceptions of corruption in the public sector and may not accurately represent the market transparency conditions in the private sector. If the government is generally transparent, the CPI scores may remain high, indicating high transparency, even though private sector market transparency would be suboptimal.
3. The CPI doesn’t directly assess market transparency but rather infers it from perceived corruption levels in the government. This method assumes that higher corruption inversely correlates with transparency, potentially overlooking market dynamics.
Indonesia as a case study Figure 1: The temperature data showing rapid warming in the past few decades,
Gross domestic product (GDP) of Indonesia at current prices from 1995 to 2023 (in billion U.S. dollars)43
Corruption perception index score of the Indonesia 1995-2023 44
⁴³ Statista. (2023). Indonesia - Gross domestic product (GDP) 2029 | Statista. [online] Available at: https://www.statista.com/statistics/320142/gross-domestic-product-gdp-in-indonesia/ ⁴⁴ Transparency.org. (2024). 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index: Explore the results. [online] Available at: https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2023
$1,600.00 Indonesia GDP 1995-2023 (in billion U.S. dollars)
The relationship between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) was also statistically analyzed for Indonesia from the year 1995 to 2023.
Using ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, we assessed how changes in GDP might influence the CPI scores, which serve as an indicator of perceived public sector corruption. The GDP data, expressed in billion U.S. dollars, and CPI scores were regressed to predict the influence of economic growth on corruption perceptions.
The regression model yielded the following key statistics and findings:
Coefficient for GDP:
The slope of the regression line is 0.0172, indicating that for every unit increase in GDP, the CPI score increases by approximately 0.0172 points. This suggests a positive relationship, where economic growth correlates with improvements in corruption perceptions (higher CPI scores signify lower perceived corruption), which aligns with the CMT theory.
Statistical Significance:
The p-value for the GDP coefficient is exceptionally low, standing at 3.28 × 10 -12, indicating a statistically significant relationship between GDP and CPI. This strongly supports the hypothesis that GDP impacts CPI scores in Indonesia.
ModelFit:
The R2 value of 0.839 suggests that about 83.9% of the variation in CPI scores is explained by changes in GDP. This substantial explanatory power indicates that GDP is a major determinant of corruption perception in Indonesia.
The significant positive correlation between GDP and CPI in Indonesia highlights that as the economy growth and develops along the economic cycle, there is a reduction in the perceived levels of corruption/ higher levels of market transparency. This could be due to better regulatory frameworks, heightened anti-corruption measures, and increased international scrutiny that often accompanies economic growth.
However, although the model demonstrates a significant correlation and extremely high model fit, it’s essential to consider other factors such as political reforms, global economic conditions, and social changes that might also influence corruption perceptions but are not captured in this model.
V. Data Analysis – Discussion
Overall, a clear pattern emerges that as countries develop and economic growth increases, the levels of transparency in those markets increases, there it can be concluded that as economic growth occurs, the transparency levels increase. On the other hand, when there is an economic downturn, the levels of transparency decrease. However, at different stages of development, the changes in transparency levels manifest themselves differently.
a) Developed Countries
In developed countries like the United Kingdom and the United States, the connection between GDP and CPI often showed a nuanced or even inverse relationship. The high level of economic stability and established institutional frameworks in these nations implies that increases in GDP do not necessarily lead to improved perceptions of corruption, and on the other hand, may increase perception of corruption, in other words, the public perceives that as the developed economies undergo economic growth, there may be an increase in levels of corruption. This suggests that other factors, such as policy changes, international economic pressures, and public awareness, may play more critical roles in influencing the CPI in developed economies.
b)
Emerging Countries
For emerging countries like India and Indonesia, the results generally adhered more closely to theoretical predictions, showing a clearer positive link between GDP growth and improvements in CPI scores. This relationship is likely due to the immediate and long-term effects of economic growth, which cause enhanced governance, increased foreign direct investment, and, thus, result in greater international scrutiny. Furthermore, as the economy develops further, it results in higher average incomes and general development of the country, causing higher internal scrutiny as well, therefore, leading to higher levels of market transparency. These factors collectively contribute to significant improvements in transparency and reductions in perceived corruption as the economy grows.
c) Developing Countries
In developing countries, such as Kenya, the analysis revealed a strong positive correlation between GDP and CPI, suggesting that economic development is a powerful driver of enhanced corruption perceptions. This might be due to the direct impact of economic improvements on public sector operations and reforms, greater regulatory efficiency, and enhanced public service delivery that typically accompanies economic growth.
Overall, the varied relationships observed suggest that while economic growth can influence corruption perceptions, the magnitude and direction of this effect are heavily dependent on the country’s stage of economic development, institutional maturity, and the integrity of governance structures. In this way, in developed countries, the impact of GDP on CPI is often obscured by the complexity and stability of existing systems. While, in both emerging and developing economies, rapid economic changes bring about noticeable shifts in governance and public services, which directly impacts CPI.
VI. Assumptions
In the Cyclical Market Transparency theory, there are several base assumptions made to structure the theoretical framework and facilitate empirical analysis. These assumptions are crucial for understanding the limitations and applicability of the theory to real-world data and situations.
1. The primary assumption of the CMT theory is that there is a direct correlation between the phases of economic cycles and levels of market transparency, which is based on the observation that periods of economic growth often coincide with increased regulatory enforcement and governance enhancements, which in turn boost transparency. Conversely, during economic downturns, there may be a relaxation in regulations or their enforcement and a rise in corrupt practices as entities struggle to cope with adverse economic conditions. This cyclical pattern of transparency is assumed to be generally reflective of the broader economic health and regulatory environment.
2. Another fundamental assumption is the reliability of the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) as a proxy indicator for market transparency. The CPI, developed by Transparency International, is widely recognised as a potential indicator for assessing the integrity of the public sector across different nations, and therefore, the CMT theory assumes that the CPI scores not only depict the public sector’s transparency but also indirectly mirror the overall market conditions. This assumption is crucial as it underlies the theory’s use of CPI data to analyse and predict market transparency trends.
VII. Empirical implications
The theory of Cyclical Market Transparency (CMT) offers several important insights for policymakers, economists and researchers studying the relationship between economic cycles and market transparency. These implications play a role in understanding the impact of transparency level fluctuations on stability and policy outcomes.
One of the implications of the CMT theory is its ability to allow for more informed policy interventions. Understanding the patterns of market transparency enables policymakers to tailor regulatory strategies that are responsive to changing economic conditions, allowing for a more adaptive intervention policy along the economic cycle. For example, in times of economic growth when transparency typically improves, policymakers could seize the opportunity to implement anti-corruption measures and policies that promote transparency further. Conversely, in periods of decline when transparency is threatened, policies could focus on strengthening mechanisms for accountability to prevent a decrease in transparency levels, potentially reducing the effects of lower transparency. This can ensure that efforts to enhance transparency are not just reactive but proactive, adjusting to economic cycle fluctuations.
The CMT theory also has implications for investors and financial experts, who may find it beneficial to understand the cyclical transparency trends, for assessing risks and predicting trends. Because transparency levels influence investors’ confidence and market stability, the CMT theory provides a robust framework for assessing and predicting changes in market conditions based on the cyclical nature of transparency levels fluctuations. By adjusting investment portfolios in response to changes in transparency levels, investors can improve their risk management during economic downturns. Seize advantages, during upswings. This can lead to more informed investment strategies that take into account the broader economic and regulatory environment.
The empirical implications of the CMT theory also extend to academic and institutional research. Researchers could explore the cyclicality of transparency in different contexts and industries, potentially uncovering unique patterns or factors that influence transparency beyond the general economic
conditions. This could lead to a deeper understanding of how specific sectors respond to economic cycles in terms of transparency and corruption. Moreover, the theory encourages the development of more comprehensive datasets that capture various aspects of transparency and economic activity, facilitating more nuanced analyses and robust findings.
Finally, the recognition of transparency cycles can aid in long-term planning and enhancing economic stability. By anticipating periods of low transparency, governments and organizations can prepare better, implementing safeguards and measures to maintain transparency even during challenging economic times. This proactive approach can contribute to greater economic resilience, reducing the likelihood of corruption and its associated costs, which can undermine economic growth and social trust over time.
Finally, recognising transparency level cyclical pattern can help with long-term planning for policymakers, improving economic stability over the long term. By anticipating the fluctuating levels of market transparency, the governments can anticipate the decreased transparency levels, which will allow the governments to prepare for the potential upcoming fall in transparency by putting in place protections and strategies to uphold transparency in declining economic conditions. This proactive approach can contribute to greater economic stability, and reduce the likelihood of corruption and its associated costs, which can undermine economic growth and social trust over time.
VIII. Extensions and limitations
The theory of Cyclical Market Transparency (CMT) offers foundational framework that can be expanded in several useful ways to improve its real-world applicability.
i) Extensions
First of all, the theory could also be applied to examine specific sectors independently from the rest of the macroeconomy, for example, to the financial sector, healthcare or education sectors, to understand the differences in transparency cycles across different economic sectors. This approach can enable policymakers to tailor policies to each sector’s transparency cycle and specific corruption issues addressing their challenges and opportunities.
Expanding the theory to include comparative analysis between countries with different economic and political environments could also be beneficial, and be used to highlight how institutional factors influence transparency cycles. This could be particularly insightful in contrasting developed and developing economies to derive best practices in improving transparency across the globe.
ii) Limitations
While the CMT theory offers a new approach to understanding how market transparency levels vary across the economic cycle, several limitations must be acknowledged.
The validity of the CMT theory heavily depends on the availability and reliability of data regarding market transparency and economic indicators, furthermore, it relies specifically on the reliability of the CPI scores, which are based on perceptions rather than direct measures of corruption, might not fully capture the actual state of market transparency.
Another limitation of the current theory may be the formulation that may not apply universally across all types of economies, sectors, or other economic contexts. Different countries and industries may exhibit unique relationships between economic conditions and transparency levels, which might not be fully captured by the theory as it stands.
Finally, the theory provides a rather general framework to understanding how market transparency levels vary across the period of the economic cycle, therefore, the theory simplifies the complex interactions between economic cycles and transparency, potentially overlooking other factors that influence transparency levels in the economy such as political changes, international relations, and technological advancements that could also significantly impact transparency.
Conclusion
The theory of Cyclical Market Transparency (CMT) explains how market transparency levels are related to economic growth and output. The CMT theory suggests that market transparency levels follow a cyclical pattern following the economic cycle of the economy. By analyzing data from several case studies from developed, emerging and developing countries, this paper has shown a strong link between GDP fluctuations and shifts in the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), which was used as a proxy for market transparency levels. These results support the theory’s idea that periods of economic growth – booms – and periods of economic decline – downturns – influence market transparency.
A review of research on how tropical cyclones in the Western North Pacific are influenced by climate change
By Sophie Feng Fd
Abstract
The long-standing impact of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP) has brought significant damage to China and other Southeastern Asia countries. The heavy rainfall following TCs’ landfall often leads to secondary disasters such as landslides and flooding, resulting in substantial socioeconomic losses. On the other hand, the accumulation of wealth and high concentration of population in the coastal urban areas have exacerbated the risk and vulnerability of these communities to TCs. In addition, climate change has further intensified the characteristics and evolving trends of TCs activity in the WNP. Research on these changes and their potential impacts on disaster risks is beneficial for disaster prevention and mitigation and clarifying the direction of further research. This report serves as a background review for the study of TCs change in WNP under the influence of climate change.
Background
Tropical cyclone (TC) is one of the major meteorological hazards in the world and has long been an active feature in the western North Pacific (WNP) region. Historical trend indicates that WNP experiences the highest frequency of tropical cyclones globally (around 36% of the total TCs formed per year) and typically peaking between July and August.[1] Over the decades, the region has witnessed multiple intense TCs, some of which have resulted in significant socioeconomic impacts.
The coastal areas are especially vulnerable to TCs as they have high population density and high concentration of wealth. The damages brought by TCs could be catastrophic, with strong winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surges leading to secondary hazards such as floods and landslides. Moreover, the rolling terrain of the coastal regions exacerbates impacts of TCs. When a TC encounters mountains, it may lead to an orographic lift to form intense precipitation which triggers secondary hazards.
Climate change, a topic grasping global attention, has been identified as a key influence on the TCs activities. According to current research, it is a critical factor affecting the genesis, intensities, frequencies, and tracks of TCs in the WNP. When the sea surface temperatures (SST) rise, TCs can acquire more moisture and heat energy for genesis and potentially have higher intensities, hence increasing the risks of coastal communities. Furthermore, there is a strong interest expressed from many sectors to manage TCs impacts, especially the financial and engineering sectors. The financial sector is particularly concerned with how to assess the risks and impacts of TCs, while the engineering industry is interested in developing infrastructure capable of withstanding the damages caused by TCs. There is an urgent need for adaptation and preparedness in the face of climate change.
Related research
TCs’ formation process begins with a warm sea surface temperature (SST) reaching at least 26.5°C to 27°C to provide moisture and heat energy to fuel cyclones’ development. They typically form over the tropical ocean surfaces of the WNP north of 5°N and have a cloud-free centre (eye) which contains a warm core. TCs rotate anticlockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere due to the Coriolis effect. The tropical disturbances over the WNP are more likely to develop into typhoons, which is the only sea area that could form TCs all year round. Meanwhile, weak vertical wind shear in the tropics is favourable for TC genesis and development. [2]
1 Understandings of climate change
As we previously mentioned, climate change as a factor influencing the TCs is primarily driven by the increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) from human activities released into the atmosphere. [3] These GHGs (such as Carbon dioxide and methane) act as an important factor in regulating the global temperature. However, as there is a cumulative proportion of GHGs in the atmosphere, the planet is warming up more.
Figure 1: The temperature data showing rapid warming in the past few decades, there is a 1.18°C increase in compare to the preindustrial period. The latest data is up to 2023.[4]
Consequently, oceans absorb large amounts of heat and greenhouse gases, which lead to higher SSTs. The combination of warmer air and warmer SSTs fuels the development and intensification of TCs and associated rainfall. As the warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, it heightens the risk of flooding, landslides and such secondary disasters globally after the heavy precipitation caused by the TCs. [5] (Figure 2)
2. Changes to TCs in WNP under influence of climate change: intensities
There are controversial views on the influence of climate change on intensity of TCs. Some research suggests the intensity does increase because of the large amount of moisture and heat energy being delivered to TCs from the sea surface with a high SST. One research has shown that the warming of the Tibetan Plateau contributes to a reduction in vertical wind shear, which leads to an increase in TC intensity.[6] Figure 2 displays a trend of increasing number and ratio of cat. 4-5 typhoons along with increasing peak intensity.
However, some research contrasts with the point before by stating there may be an increase in atmospheric stability with more intense TCs due to their latent heating in the upper atmosphere, which is not beneficial for TC development. Atmospheric stability refers to the resistance of an air parcel to vertical displacement, which can influence the development of convection, a key process in TC intensification. In a more stable atmosphere, it is thought to be more difficult for the necessary storm activity to form and intensify, which could potentially limit the strength of TCs.
Furthermore, some research has noticed the differences between the best track data of typhoons made by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) from 1977 to 2004. A study found that the number of days with super typhoons in JMA data has decreased from an average of 7.2 days per year from 1977 to 1990 to 4.3 days per year from 1991 to 2004. In contrast, the data from JTWC shows the opposite trend (the number of days with super typhoons increased from an average of 9.8 days per year from 1977 to 1990 to 16.9 days per year from 1991 to 2004). This substantial difference is argued to be related to the differences in satellite processing technology for TC intensity by JMA and JTWC, and it is currently not possible to determine which data is more reliable. Furthermore, there is an
Figure 2: Total volume of precipitation per TC from 1980 to 2019.[5]
average difference of about 54.4 km between the typhoon’s best positioning data compiled by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and that of JTWC. Moreover, there are differences between CMA typhoon intensity data, JMA’s, and JTWC’s, with a difference of 0.6 m/s and 1.7 m/s respectively. [7] The difference could potentially be due to the difference in determining Tropical Depressions and the ways of collecting TC data in the pre-satellite era.
Figure 3: a–c, Annual number of category (cat.) 4–5 typhoons (a), ratio of the annual number of category 4–5 typhoons to that of all typhoons (b), and annual mean typhoon lifetime peak intensity (c) in the northwest Pacific as a function of time from the JTWC data (black curve) and Adj, JMA 1-min wind data. The green curve in (a) shows results for the original (orig.) JMA 1-min wind data. Thick dashed lines in each panel show linear trends from 1977 to 2014.
3. Changes to TCs in WNP under the influence of climate change: frequencies Similarly, there is no major agreement on the changes to TCs frequency in WNP although some studies suggest that the frequency is decreasing (see Figure 3) associated with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulations, such as the weakening of the Walker Circulation, which could make conditions less favourable for TC formation on a global scale.
In addition, as global temperatures rise, alterations in vertical wind shear and the availability of deep convection would all contribute to a more hostile environment for TC genesis, leading to a decline in frequency. However, other studies indicate that the number of TCs recorded in the pre-satellite era is inaccuracy due to the lack of advanced technology and limited observational platforms. Thus, many TCs may have gone unreported and unnoticed.
Figure 4: Anthropogenic greenhouse warming-induced changes in global and hemispheric annual TC numbers as inferred from the 20CR dataset and changes in the mean annual TC numbers between the pre-industrial control and historical periods as derived from climate model experiments. [8]
Figure 5: The prediction upon the changes in TC frequency in the WNP based on the IPCC emission scenario. Blue shaded area is decreasing in frequency. The yellow shaded areas is increasing in frequency.[1]
Figure 6: a) Linear trends in SSTs since the mid-nineteenth century, overlaid with the mean trade wind directions (red arrows). b) Linear trends in sea-level pressure (SLP) (dashed blue rectangles are used to define the Indo–Pacific SLP gradient, ΔSLP, which serves as a proxy of changes in mean intensity of the Pacific Walker circulation. The three Walker cells are represented in orange. Sinking dry air is represented by green arrows and moist rising air is represented by grey arrows). c) Changes in the Indo–Pacific SLP gradient since the mid-nineteenth century. d) An illustration of the Hadley circulation) e) Observed Hadley circulation pattern, represented by mass stream function of the zonal-mean meridional winds during the period 1900–2012 (red shadings indicate regions where the summertime mean intensity of the circulation has weakened significantly relative to the pre-industrial counterpart). f) Environmental conditions represented as the normalized composite index. [8]
4. Changes to TCs in WNP under the influence of climate change: tracks
On the other hand, there have been noticeable variations in the land-falling locations of TCs in China from 1951 to 2017, linked to the research on the changes in trajectories of TCs. Over the 67 years, there were substantial changes in the landing locations of tropical cyclones in China, although the latitudinal changes were not as significant as longitudinal changes. [7] The average longitude where tropical cyclones make landfall in China has generally exhibited an increasing trend (Figure 5), indicating a clear eastward shift in landing points. However, this trend did not pass the Mann-Kendall (M-K) significance test. Therefore, its reliability has yet to be tested. Further evidence could be seen in the shifting of 4° eastward compared to the multi-year average concluded from the minimum landing longitude as 111.96°E in 1993, and the maximum as 119.9°E in 2000.
Figure 7: Time series of mean longitude of the locations of the land falling TCs from 1951 – 2017 [8]
Similarly, the average latitude of the landing sites has also shown an increasing trend (Figure 6), suggesting a northward movement in the landing points of TCs in China, but the M-K significance test indicated that this trend is not significant. There is an observed 2.5° northward shift compared to the multi-year average concluded from the minimum landing latitude as 20.72°N in 2003, and the maximum as 25.51°N in 2012. [10]
Figure 8: Time series of mean latitude of the locations of the land-falling TCs from 1951-2017 [8]
4 Benefits of TCs in the WNP
TCs in the WNP, although often associated with significant socioeconomic impacts, could be beneficial in many ways. Through the substantial rainfall that TCs bring, they replenish freshwater supplies which support agriculture and ecosystems, which can shorten the duration, mitigating drought stress and accelerating drought recovery.[10] Furthermore, the rainfall and wind of TCs can help to regulate local and regional climates by distributing heat more evenly across the globe, which provides a cooling effect during hot seasons.
Figure 9: This graph suggests the relationship between TCs and droughts. [12]
In addition, the TCs could cause a mixing of ocean waters, bringing up the nutrient-rich deeper waters to the surface, which plays a critical role in supporting marine life and the ocean ecosystem. The upwelling can enhance marine productivity, thus supporting the fishing industry. [13] These nutrients, including nitrogen, phosphorus, and iron, are key to the growth of phytoplankton, which forms the base of the marine food web. The availability of these nutrients influences the distribution and diversity of marine organisms. For example, the availability of iron as a limiting factor for phytoplankton growth can control the rate of carbon dioxide uptake through photosynthesis, which has impacts on the global climate and carbon cycle. [14]
While it is important to note the positive impacts of TCs in the WNP, however, the overall effects are typically negative due to the strong winds and heavy rainfall, resulting in high destructive potential.
5. Damages by the TCs in the WNP TCs in the WNP, such as the super typhoons Doksuri and Mangkhut, have caused significant destruction in the coastal areas of East Asia and Southeast Asia. The most immediate and severe impact is the loss of life as TCs generate strong winds and torrential rains leading to flash flooding and landslides. The storm surges can bring massive destruction to infrastructure, including roads, bridges, and buildings, in the coastal areas. If the scenario prediction of sea-level rise caused by global warming becomes a reality, the vulnerability to typhoon storm surges will undoubtedly increase.
Figure 10: the number of deaths versus the number of casualties from 1980 to 2004. Red (black) line is the linear trend line for casualties (deaths) in China. [1]
Figure 11: the direct economic loss resulting from TCs appear to be an increasing trend from 1980 to 2004 [1]
Furthermore, the severity of disaster situations primarily depends on the intensity of the TC’s wind and rain, as well as the accuracy of its warning and forecasting. Additionally, it is closely related to the TC prevention and disaster mitigation strategies applied and the level of socio-economic development in the affected areas. Therefore, the disaster situation of TC can potentially reflect the severity of the disaster. [1]
TCs result in severe damage to agriculture and fishing industries, disrupting local, regional, and even national economies. The strong winds associated can flatten crops (Figure 12), while the torrential rain can lead to flooding in low-lying farmlands, washing away the nutrients and soil for plant growth. Additionally, the storm surges can lead to saltwater intrusion into the soil in the coastal regions, thereby devastating the growth of many crops and taking years for them to recover. The damage to agriculture also has a long-term impact, along with the destruction of infrastructure (roads, storage facilities), which can disrupt the transportation and marketing of agricultural products. This may lead to food shortages, price spikes and low food security, particularly in regions where farming is an essential part of the local economy.
The damage to agriculture from tropical cyclones is not limited to the immediate aftermath of the storm. The destruction of infrastructure, such as roads and storage facilities, can disrupt the transportation and marketing of agricultural products, leading to food shortages and price spikes. Additionally, the loss of crops can have long-term impacts on food security, particularly in regions where farming is a significant part of the local economy. The increasing intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones due to climate change are expected to exacerbate these challenges, highlighting the need for improved disaster risk reduction strategies and climate-resilient agricultural practices in the region.
Figure 12: the flattening of crops in Zhejiang after Typhoon Kanu
Conclusion
The related research consists of 1) Change in TCs frequencies, intensities, and tracks, 2) Benefits brought by TCs in the WNP, and 3) Damages made by TCs in the WNP. There are conflicting research opinions on the relationship between climate change and TCs in the WNP. Some suggest there is an increasing frequency, increasing intensity and northward movement of TCs in the WNP. However, some may argue the opposite to all the statements before. The relationship between TCs and climate change has a complex nature and still requires ongoing research.
Two main problems make it difficult to explain the relationship of TCs in the WNP with Climate change: 1) The consistency and homogeneity of data partly due to the lack of satellite technology before, 2) The deficiency of climate model in simulating TC climate.
Although there are benefits from TCs, such as replenishing freshwater supplies, the potential losses resulting from TCs are still substantial. They are also a great concern to agricultural, engineering, and financial industries, such as insurance companies. This research is an interdisciplinary and crossdisciplinary study that requires ongoing collaborative research by experts in various fields globally. Most importantly, we must actively manage the impacts of climate change through strategies of adapting and managing it to create a more habitable world for future generations.
Figure 13: the trend in affected farmland area from 1980 to 2004 by TCs in China. [1]
References
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2. Qin, Lianjie, et al. “Global Expansion of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Footprint.” Nature Communications, vol. 15, no. 1, 6 June 2024, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-49115-1.
3. IPCC, 2022: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 3056 pp. doi: https: //doi.org/ 10.1017/9781009352844
4. Ritchie, Hannah, et al. “Climate Change.” Our World in Data, 15 Apr. 2024, ourworldindata.org/climate-change.
5. Zhai, Guangran, et al. “Characteristics of Precipitation Changes during Tropical Cyclone Processes in China from 1980 to 2019.” Scientific Reports, vol. 14, no. 1, 13 June 2024, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-64252-9. Accessed 19 Nov. 2024.
6. Xu, Jing, et al. “Increasing Tropical Cyclone Intensity in the Western North Pacific Partly Driven by Warming Tibetan Plateau.” Nature Communications, vol. 15, no. 1, 5 Jan. 2024, p. 310, www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-44403-8?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR1Vo2cTjSWPaj94iqyiYVr-wir9t-hlBvtrE_zOBlY_XxcUl1TgsSLVAc_aem_AV6OfE1la3P3Ywc-HzdXrnOV4xf8f0o0lWFxd1y0LT1J8bkyg7r8Clnd3kMGGGLe__gBxgEuhr6OKBVZ2dlh-jf, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-02344403-8. Accessed 27 May 2024.
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8. Chand, Savin S., et al. “Declining Tropical Cyclone Frequency under Global Warming.” Nature Climate Change, vol. 12, no. 7, 1 July 2022, pp. 655–661, www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01388-4, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01388-4. Accessed 18 July 2022.
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10. Zhang Chun-yan, Liu Zhao-hua, Wang Xiao-li, Hou Xi-yong. 2020. Variations of landfalling tropical cyclones in China since the 1950s. Marine Sciences, 44(2): 10-21.
11. Wang Lei, Chen Guanghua, Huang Ronghui. Spatiotemporal distributive characteristics of tropical cyclone activities over the Northwest Pacific in 1979-2006[J]. Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, 2009, 32(2): 182-188
12. Gao, Yankang,Zhao, Tongtiegang,Tu, Tongbi,et al. Spatiotemporal links between meteorological and agricultural droughts impacted by tropical cyclones in China[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2024,912:12..
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14. Moore, C. M., et al. “Processes and Patterns of Oceanic Nutrient Limitation.” Nature Geoscience, vol. 6, no. 9, 31 Mar. 2013, pp. 701–710, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1765.
Was the art of the Florentine Renaissance only influenced by the culture of the ancient world?
By Selina Bilgen J
In the fifteenth century, Florence entered a new age. This period is called the Renaissance, meaning “rebirth”. A rebirth of intellectual curiosity and creativity that followed the dark ages. A lot of Renaissance art, especially art produced in Florence, was inspired by the brilliance of the ancient civilisations of Rome and Greece that came prior to the Dark Ages. The Florentines during the 15th century were very ambitious. Within Florence, there were many competing merchants’ families, and outside of Florence, European cities were competing in the ornamentation and glorification of their cities. The Florentines had a passionate and determined approach to this competitive atmosphere within Europe, but alongside this, they were also hyper-focused on achieving the levels of artistic and architectural genius of the ancient world. They lived with an oppressive and uncomfortable feeling of past civilisation being far superior to their own.
The Tribute Money by Masaccio is one of the twelve surviving frescos depicting a story of St Peter paying the Capernaum tax. This is in the Brancacci chapel, a side chapel off the main church of Santa Maria Del Carmine. When painting The Tribute Money, Masaccio was significantly influenced by ancient art and sculpture; for example, he used Roman statues as a source of inspiration for the figures within his fresco painting. Roman statues were being dug up at the time, and powerful families such as the Medici were starting to curate collections of these artefacts. Characteristics of Roman statues include very solid and static stances and generously hanging and observed drapery. Classical art had an analytical approach to observing the world; the art produced by the ancient Romans was abundant with naturalism, as opposed to the ancient Greeks, who were making very idealised art and sculptures. The stance Peter has adopted beside the lake is believed to have been influenced by Greek sculpture, as is the stance of both Peter and the tax collector on the right-hand side of the picture. It is also believed Masaccio gained inspiration for the composition of his figures in Nanni di Banco’s Four Crowned Saints outside of the Orsanmichele, which was commissioned by the stone mason’s guild. The central and semi-circular grouping of the figures is very similar to the composition created by Masaccio, in the Tribute Money.
The Tribute Money by Masaccio (1425)
The tribute money is enriched with naturalistic observation, for example, the curved ripples in the lake, the scudding clouds creating a sense of movement within the painting, the colourful and extravagant drapery, etc. The single light source within the painting emphasises this sense of naturalism. The idea of painting in an empirical way was the classical way of painting, specifically by the ancient Romans. Scientific observation in art had been lost during the Dark Ages because of the rejection of scientific research by the Christian church.
Masaccio’s fresco is flanked by painted classical Corinthian fluted pilasters, which were influenced by Roman architecture and serve as dividers between the different artworks within the Brancacci chapel.
David by Donatello (1425-45)
Donatello’s David is a highly regarded early Renaissance sculpture. The Florentines loved the statue because it was one of the first times, as a civilisation, that they felt as sophisticated as the Hellenistic artists, as it was full of classical references. This statue is symbolic of Florence’s triumphant victory over Milan and also the Medici family’s dominating and distinguished relationship with Florence’s increasing power.
In the 19th century, it was very unusual for artistic subjects to be depicted in the nude. This was because Christianity heavily repressed any sort of nudity or body positivity as it was viewed as sinful or encouraging sinful acts. However, if someone was ever depicted in the nude, they always had to look embarrassed about nudity in order to support this religious belief.
Donatello claimed that he sculpted David without clothes because when he fought Goliath, he heroically refused any armour. But it is believed that Donatello sculpted David naked because pride in one’s anatomy was a very classical concept; the Greeks specifically created masses of nude statues in correlation with this pride that they took in their nudity. Renaissance artists were longing desperately to create classical artworks due to this focus on achieving the levels of artistic greatness that ancient artists achieved. Hence, it is believed that David is depicted in the nude as a classical reference, as opposed to enhancing the mythological narrative of the statue.
The ancient Romans and Greeks had an extensive history of using bronze as the medium for their statues. Bronze was ten times more expensive than marble, and although the Medici were by far the wealthiest family in Florence during this period, David is sculpted in bronze in an attempt to allude to the classical statues of the past Greek and Roman empires.
David stands in a contrapposto pose. The contrapposto poses first appeared within ancient Greek statues. The earliest example of a figure being sculpted in this elegant pose is Kritios Boy, which was sculpted around 480 BCE. Later, the ancient Romans were inspired by the Greeks and started incorporating this pose into their sculptures and then again by artists of the Renaissance, for example, Donatello or Michelangelo. The wings attached to the Goliaths’ helmet homoerotically lead up the back of David’s leg, acting in support of the statue. The wings on the helmet are easily mistaken to be a classical reference to Hermes alongside the winged sandals that David is wearing.
Mars and Venus by Botticelli depicts Mars, the Roman god of war, and Venus, the Roman goddess of love, reclining after engaging in extramarital sex in an enclosing laurel grove with spirited satyric cheekily playing with Mars’ weapons of war. This painting was painted in celebration of a Vespucci wedding onto a spalliera in the couple’s bedroom.
The Medici raised Botticelli; he spent his upbringing and adult life surrounded by intellectuals in the Medici Library. These intellectuals would have constantly suggested literary sources to aid and enhance his paintings. One of the literary sources that influenced this painting is Amor Vincit Fortitudines, a classical book translated to Love Conquers Strength. The central message of this painting is the power of love and the ability to conquer all, which is why this was painted as a wedding gift. Botticelli depicts this message through the composition of his subjects. Venus is awake watching Mars post intercourse, whilst Mars is practically comatose. So much so that the conch being blown directly into Mars’ ear by the Satyrisci and even the swam of wasps surrounding his head do not wake him. The satyrisci are playing with Mar’s weapons of war whilst he sleeps, which comically reduces them to toys and emasculates them completely as they have been made redundant. This is all to aid Botticelli’s deliverance of the classical concept that love conquers strength.
Another classical literary source that inspired this painting is Lucretius’ De Rerum Natura. Within this book is a section describing Mars lying in Venus’ lap as she puts him to sleep by saying soft words to him. This again evokes a similar message as Amor Vincit Fortitudines of love conquering even the strongest of powers, e.g., the Roman god of war.
Mars and Venus by Botticelli (1483)
Plato, the ancient Greek philosopher, also followed a philosophy similar to that of the two previously mentioned literary sources. The rejuvenation of Plato and Platonism was an important factor in the philosophical life of the Renaissance and contributed significantly to the philosophical climate of the fifteenth century. Plato believed the power of love could defeat the god of war.
In this painting, Botticelli depicts an affair. Venus was married to Vulcan, the god of the blacksmiths, and she is lying with Mars post intercourse. Anyone with a classical education, when looking at this painting, would quickly recognise that this is depicting an affair. which makes it an odd painting to give in celebration of a marriage, as in Christianity, which was very prevalent at the time. Monogamy and faithfulness were the most important and definitive factors of marriage. However, In the ancient world there were multiple myths all about affairs and conflicting love interests. For example, Semele, the mother of the Greek god Dionysus, had an affair with Zeus, or Poseidon, the god of the sea, had an affair with Aphrodite, etc., so my point is Botticelli was influenced not only by classical literature but also by the ancient fluid and more liberated approach to love and one’s physical desires when painting.
Alexander the Great was one of the greatest military tacticians in the ancient world, with huge territorial conquests throughout Asia Minor. Lucien, who was a late classical Greek author, wrote a long poem about the marriage of Alexander the Great and a woman called Roxanna. In this poem, he describes naughty Satyriscis playing with Alexander the Great’s amour again with this idea of the comical reduction of items used in moments of great violence and strength becoming mere toys. It is thought that Botticelli would’ve been shown this poem by one of the intellectuals in the Medici household.
San Marco altar piece by Fra Angelico (1438-43)
The San Marco altarpiece was originally located on the altar of the San Marco church, which is attached to the San Marco monastery. Now, it is in the San Marco Museum of Florence. Cosimo Medici commissioned this altarpiece after he funded the entire rebuilding of the San Marco church and Monastery, as recommended by the pope.
Older altar pieces used to consist of many different panels that were bolted together. These were called polyptych altarpieces, so Fra Angelico’s analemma (single panel) altarpiece was considered very innovative. Fra Angelico was one of the first people to make a single-panel altarpiece. However, the San Marco wasn’t the first analemma altarpiece he did. his original analemma altarpiece was the San Domenico Altarpiece in 1423-24.
The international gothic style was originally spread across Europe from the late 14th to the mid-15th centuries. Its distinguishing characteristics are large quantities of colourful ornamentation alongside elegant figures combined with an ostentatious display of gold within and around the painting. Fra Angelico was influenced by Gentile da Fabriano’s adoration of the magi, which is regarded as the most important altarpiece in the international gothic style and was produced in Florence in the 15th century. It’s overflowing with bright colours and extravagantly gilded. Fra Angelico was a big fan of the international gothic style and Gentile da Fabriano’s work; it was a big influence on his work. prior to this, he painted deposition from the cross (1432-34). Which clearly displays all the compositional elements of the International gothic style.
Classicism is a relevant concept within his alter piece. Fra Angelico depicts many examples of Classical architecture within this altarpiece, the main classical feature within this painting is the golden throne Mar is sitting on with Jesus. Other classical architectural features include Spandrels, a large connive, Decorated swags, entablatures, fluted Corinthian pilasters etc. This painting is a mix of Classicism and the international gothic style.
It’s recognised that Filippo Brunelleschi was one of the first renaissance artists to achieve correct perspective within his art, in an experimental period between 1415-20. he made drawings of various Florentine buildings such as the baptistry. The use of perspective within art was a new and innovative technique. On the Persian carpet painted in the foreground of the painting are all the different zodiac signs. Zodiac signs were used to determine the months of the year. The carpet looks a bit like a chessboard with its grid like composition. Fra Angelico uses orthogonal lines within the carpet to create a vanishing point and perspective. The use of perspective
In conclusion, I believe the main source of influence for the great artists of the 15th century was the ancient world. However, I am able to recognise the influences of the northern gothic style was also prevalent during this period. Ultimately, I think the reason for classicism being the largest influence upon the Florentine Renaissance artists is their innate passionate desire to achieve excellence in the ancient world within their own culture.
