AI at War book preview

How Big Data, Artificial Intelligence, and Machine Learning Are Changing Naval Warfare

Edited by Sam J. Tangredi and George Galdorisi

AI at War How Big Data, Artificial Intelligence, and Machine Learning Are Changing Naval Warfare Edited by Sam J. Tangredi and George Galdorisi “In clear and crisp prose Tangredi and Galdorisi illuminate the huge promise in mastering [AI] technologies, and the terrible consequences of failing to do so.”

—John Lehman, former secretary of the Navy, author of Oceans Ventured: Winning the Cold War at Sea “This first-class set of essays removes the hype that surrounds the key role that AI will play in the future of naval warfare. It should be read by everyone from warfighters to concerned civilians.”

—Joseph S. Nye Jr., former dean of Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government and author of Do Morals Matter? Presidents and Foreign Policy from FDR to Trump “Because AI is going to war with us (in both senses), those interested in the nation’s security must attend to its potentials and perils. There is no better place to start than with this volume, where professionals and academics observe AI’s contribution from more angles than we can imagine.”

—Martin C. Libicki, author Cyberspace in Peace and War, distinguished visiting professor, U.S. Naval Academy Artificial intelligence (AI) may be the most beneficial technological development of the twentyfirst century, but it is often misunderstood outside of specialists in the field. AI at War provides a balanced and practical understanding of this dawning new technology, explaining the importance of machine learning, human-machine interfaces, and big data analysis, components that are often omitted or misunderstood. While AI has many potential applications, Tangredi and Galdorisi have brought together more than thirty experts to focus on those elements relating to national security, making clear the importance and the potential of AI in defending the nation and in warfighting.

Contributors include Robert Work, former Deputy Secretary of Defense; Admiral James Stavridis, former Commander, Supreme Allied Commander Europe; Admiral Michael Rogers, former Director of the National Security Agency; and Admiral Scott Swift, former Commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet; as well as scientists and operators who share their theoretical and experiential knowledge of this “game-changing” new field.

Sam J. Tangredi is the Leidos Chair of Future Warfare Studies and professor of national, naval, and maritime strategy at the U.S. Naval War College. He served a thirty-year naval career as a surface warfare officer and as a strategic planner. He is author of Anti-Access Warfare: Countering A2/AD Strategies.

George Galdorisi is the director of strategic assessments and technical futures at the Naval Information Warfare Center Pacific. His thirty-year career as a naval aviator included four command tours, and he has written a total of fourteen books, including four consecutive New York Times best-sellers.

NAVAL INSTITUTE PRESS Publication date: April 15, 2021 ISBN: 9781682476062 Available in Hardcover and eBook: $49.95 464 Pages | 9” × 6”

AI War at

How Big Data, Artificial Intelligence, and Machine Learning Are Changing Naval Warfare

Edited by Sam J. Tangredi and George Galdorisi

NAVAL INSTITUTE PRESS Annapolis, Maryland

CONTENTS

List of Illustrations Foreword —ADM. JAMES G. STAVRIDIS, USN (RET.)

vii ix

Introduction—SAM J. TANGREDI AND GEORGE GALDORISI

1

1 Theory and Conceptual History of Artificial Intelligence

24

2 AI, Autonomy, and the Third Offset Strategy Fostering Military Innovation during a Period of Great Change

45

3 The Department of the Navy’s Commitment to Big Data, AI, and Machine Learning

62

4 The Navy at a Crossroads The Uneven Adoption of Autonomous Systems in the Navy

80

5 AI Programs of Potential Military Opponents Propositions and Recommendations

92

PATRICK K. SULLIVAN AND THE OCEANIT TEAM

ROBERT O. WORK

WILLIAM BRAY AND DALE L. MOORE

PAUL SCHARRE

SAM J. TANGREDI

6 Battlefield Innovation on Patrol Designing AI for the Warfighter

117

7 Mission Command and Speed of Decision What Big Data, Artificial Intelligence, and Machine Learning Should Do for the Navy

135

NINA KOLLARS

ADM. SCOTT H. SWIFT, USN (RET.), AND ANTONIO P. SIORDIA

v

vi

Contents

8 Practical Applications of Naval AI An Overview of Artificial Intelligence in Naval Warfare

150

9 How AI Is Shaping Navy Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance

168

CONNOR S. McLEMORE AND CHARLES R. CLARK

MARK OWEN, KATIE RAINEY, AND RACHEL VOLNER

10 Communicating at the Speed of War The Future of Naval Communications and the Rise of Artificial Intelligence

ALBERT K. LEGASPI, JEFF MAH, AND STEPHANIE HSZIEH

11 How AI Is Shaping Navy Command and Control DOUG LANGE AND JOSÉ CARREÑO

183 202

12 AI and Integrated Fires

219

13 Artificial Intelligence and Future Force Design

236

14 Entry Pass to Future Warfare AI Education at the U.S. Naval Academy

252

15 Trying to Put Mahan in a Box Insights from Attempting to Develop a Decision Aid for the Operational Commander

265

16 “Sea Hacking” Sun Tzu Deception in Global AI/Cybered Conflict and Navies

286

17 Overcoming Impediments to AI for Unmanned Autonomy and Human Decision-Making

310

MICHAEL O’GARA

HARRISON SCHRAMM AND BRYAN CLARK

NATHANAEL CHAMBERS, FREDERICK L. CRABBE, AND GAVIN TAYLOR

ADAM M. AYCOCK AND WILLIAM G. GLENNEY IV

CHRIS C. DEMCHAK AND SAM J. TANGREDI

GEORGE GALDORISI

18 The Influence of Artificial Intelligence on Naval Strategy and Tactics 333 REAR ADM. NEVIN CARR, USN (RET.), AND SAM J. TANGREDI

19 The Future of AI

PATRICK K. SULLIVAN AND THE OCEANIT TEAM

Epilogue— GEORGE GALDORISI AND SAM J. TANGREDI Afterword—ADM. MICHAEL S. ROGERS, USN (RET.) Selected Bibliography About the Contributors Index

351 373 377 381 425 441

ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS

Editors George Galdorisi is the Director of Strategic Assessments and Technical Futures at the Naval Information Warfare Center Pacific, where much of his work is focused on the operational uses of big data, artificial intelligence, and machine learning. Prior to joining the center, he completed a thirty-year career as a naval aviator, culminating in fourteen years of consecutive service as executive officer, commanding officer, commodore, and chief of staff. His last operational assignment spanned five years as chief of staff for Cruiser-Destroyer Group Three embarked in USS Carl Vinson and USS Abraham Lincoln. During this assignment, he also led the U.S. delegation for military-to-military talks with the People’s Liberation Army Navy. He has written a number of novels and nonfiction works, as well as articles in professional journals, including the U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings prize-winning article, “The Navy Needs AI: It’s Just Not Certain Why.” Other than writing, he enjoys connecting with readers via his website: www.georgegaldorisi.com.

Sam J. Tangredi is the Leidos Chair of Future Warfare Studies, director of the Institute for Future Warfare Studies, and professor of national, naval, and maritime strategy at the U.S. Naval War College. A U.S. Naval Academy and Naval Postgraduate School graduate, he earned a PhD in international relations from the University of Southern California. He served a thirty-year naval career as a surface warfare officer culminating as commanding officer of USS Harpers Ferry (LSD 49). Ashore, he served as a strategic planner and leader of strategic planning teams as head, Strategy and Concepts Branch (N513) of the Chief of Naval Operations staff and director of Strategic Planning and Business Development of the Navy International Programs Office. He also served

as speechwriter and special assistant to the Secretary of the Navy, defense resources manager on the Joint Staff, and U.S. Defense Attaché to the Hellenic Republic of Greece. He has published 5 books and more than 150 articles and has earned 14 professional literature awards, including the U.S. Naval Institute’s Arleigh Burke Prize and the U.S. Navy League’s Alfred Thayer Mahan Award. He can be contacted via his website: www.samjtangredi.com.

Contributors Capt. Adam M. Aycock, USN (Ret.), was most recently a researcher in the Institute for Future Warfare Studies in the Center for Naval Warfare Studies of the U.S. Naval War College. Among other subjects, he studied the autonomy and safeguards necessary for the control of future unmanned systems. A career surface warfare officer, he held four commands at sea: as rotational commanding officer of USS Gladiator (MCM 11) and USS Sentry (MCM 3), USS Mahan (DDG 72), Afloat Training Group, Mayport, Florida, and USS Shiloh (CG 67). He served ashore in the Bureau of Personnel and on the Joint Staff as the maritime operational threat response expert in the Anti-Terrorism/Homeland Defense Division. Captain Aycock is a U.S. Naval Academy graduate and earned a master’s in military studies from the U.S. Marine Corps Command and Staff College.

William Bray serves as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Navy for Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation (DASN [RDT&E]) under the Assistant Secretary of the Navy for Research, Development, and Acquisition. He is responsible for executive oversight of all matters related to RDT&E budget activities, science and engineering, advanced research and development, prototyping and experimentation, and test and evaluation. As DASN (RDT&E), he is also responsible for oversight and stewardship of the Department of the Navy research and development establishment, including naval laboratories, warfare centers, and systems centers. Mr. Bray previously served as the executive director, Program Executive Office for Integrated Warfare Systems (PEO IWS); director of integrated nuclear weapons safety and security (SP30) in the Navy Strategic Systems Programs Office; and director, Integrated Combat Systems for PEO IWS, where he was the major program manager for surface Navy combat systems. He started his civil service career at the Naval Surface

Warfare Center, Corona Division, California. Mr. Bray earned a bachelor of science in engineering from Pennsylvania State University and a master of science in systems management from the University of Southern California. He has been awarded the Department of the Navy’s Superior Civilian Service Award.

Rear Adm. Nevin Carr, USN (Ret.), is currently vice president and U.S. Navy strategic account executive for the global science and technology company Leidos. He is also a director of the Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International. Prior to joining Leidos, he was a Senior Advisor with McKinsey and Co., and a Distinguished Visiting Scholar at Stanford University. Rear Admiral Carr retired from the U.S. Navy following a thirty-four-year career, which included command of USS Arleigh Burke (DDG 51) and USS Cape St. George (CG 71). His shore duty assignments focused on ship combat systems and sea-based ballistic missile defense. On the Chief of Naval Operations staff, he served as deputy director of surface warfare for combat systems.

Appointed Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Navy for International Programs, Rear Admiral Carr built international partnerships through training, cooperative development, and foreign military sales. His capstone assignment was as chief of naval research, where he led four thousand talented scientists and engineers executing the Navy’s $2 billion science and technology effort. He worked closely with industry, academia, and international partners to develop such emerging technologies as directed energy, autonomous systems, electromagnetic spectrum dominance, and the electromagnetic rail gun. He earned a bachelor’s degree in naval architecture from the U.S. Naval Academy and a master’s degree in operations research from the Naval Postgraduate School.

José Carreño is a senior analyst and the head of the Strategy and Decision Support Branch at Naval Information Warfare Center (NIWC) Pacific. His career in government service began under the auspices of the Office of Naval Research’s internship program, where he was assigned to NIWC Pacific. Following completion of his graduate degree, he joined NIWC Pacific as an operations research analyst. He was subsequently selected to lead the Strategy and Decision Support Branch, responsible for the development, management, and execution of the NIWC strategy, as well as all associated research and analysis.

He also serves as the associate technical project officer for Chile, responsible for the information exchange agreement on command, control, communications,

and computers between the U.S. and Chilean navies. Mr. Carreño completed his undergraduate studies at the University of California, Berkeley, and holds a master’s degree in Pacific international affairs from the University of California, San Diego, and a master’s in systems analysis from the Naval Postgraduate School.

Dr. Nathanael Chambers is an associate professor in the computer science department at the U.S. Naval Academy (USNA). He is also the co-director of the USNA Center for High Performance Computing. His research centers on natural language processing, applying machine learning to extract information from written text. The goal of his efforts is to enable deeper artificial intelligence reasoning by interpreting the information conveyed through human languages through unsupervised learning. Additionally, he investigates new methods for information extraction to better understand large amounts of text, and models time—when events start, how long they last, and the order in which they occur. During his nine years at USNA, he has published research papers with more than a dozen midshipmen co-authors. He also received the Class of 1951 Civilian Faculty Excellence in Research Award in 2020. He is a graduate of the University of Rochester and earned a PhD in computer science from Stanford University in 2011. He joined the faculty at USNA shortly after completion of his studies.

Bryan Clark is a senior fellow and director of the Center for Defense Concepts and Technology at Hudson Institute. His areas of research include naval operations, electronic warfare, autonomous systems, military competitions, and wargaming. From 2013 to 2019, he was a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA), where he led studies for the Department of Defense Office of Net Assessment, Office of the Secretary of Defense, and Defense Advanced Research Products Agency on new technologies and the future of warfare. Prior to joining CSBA in 2013, he served as special assistant to the Chief of Naval Operations and director of his Commander’s Action Group, where he led development of Navy strategy and implemented new initiatives in electromagnetic spectrum operations, undersea warfare, expeditionary operations, and personnel and readiness management. Additionally, he served in the Navy headquarters staff from 2004 to 2011, leading studies in the Assessment Division and participating in the 2006 and 2010 Quadrennial Defense Reviews. Prior to retiring from the Navy in 2008, Mr. Clark was an

enlisted and officer submariner, serving in afloat and ashore submarine operational and training assignments including tours as chief engineer and operations officer at the Navy’s nuclear power training unit.

Lt. Cdr. Charles R. Clark, USN, is an SH-60B/R naval aviator and qualified operations analyst and currently serves in the Office of the Chief of Naval Operations Assessment Division (OPNAV N81), where he conducts analysis of future fleet requirements. Lieutenant Commander Clark completed numerous operational deployments during seventeen years of service. His assignments included Helicopter Anti-Submarine Squadron Light 51 (HSL-51), USS Boxer (LHD 4), Helicopter Maritime Strike Squadron 49 (HSM-49), and Naval Forces, U.S. Central Command in Bahrain. During those assignments, he participated in operations throughout the Western Pacific, Arabian Sea, and Eastern Pacific. On shore duty, he served as an MH-60R flight instructor with Helicopter Maritime Strike Squadron 41 (HSM-41). He is a graduate of the U.S. Naval Academy with a bachelor of science in computer science, and he earned a master’s degree in operations research and a certificate in scientific computation from the Naval Postgraduate School, where he was awarded the Chief of Naval Operations Award for Excellence in Operations Research. He also holds an executive master of business administration degree.

Dr. Frederick L. Crabbe is a professor in the computer science department at the U.S. Naval Academy, where he teaches in the area of intelligent robotics.

In his nineteen-year career at the academy, his research has focused on the intersection between artificial intelligence and robotic or similar agents. In particular, he has examined social learning between agents, either through observation, collaboration, or various forms of explicit teaching. Professor Crabbe earned a bachelor of arts in computer science modified with philosophy from Dartmouth College in 1992, including an exchange with the University of Edinburgh, and a PhD in computer science from the University of California, Los Angeles, in 2000. His defense research interests include developing autonomous agents that support infantry squads, and the application of artificial intelligence techniques to the development of better tactics in aerial drone swarms.

Dr. Chris C. Demchak is the Rear Admiral Grace M. Hopper Chair of Cyber Security and Senior Cyber Scholar of the Cyber and Innovation Policy Institute in the Center for Naval Warfare Studies at the U.S. Naval War College.

She was previously co-founder and director of the Center for Cyber Conflict Studies. With engineering, economics, comparative complex organization theory, and political science degrees from Princeton University and the University of California, Berkeley, she served as an intelligence officer in the U.S. Army and taught at West Point and the University of Arizona. She also studied LISP programming, used as the original computer program for artificial intelligence research. Dr. Demchak is the developer of such concepts as cybered conflict (as opposed to cyber conflict), a “Cyber Westphalia” of competitive sociotechnical-economic systems, and a Cyber Operational Resilience Alliance. In addition to many published articles, her books include Military Organizations, Complex Machines (1991), Designing Resilience (coeditor, 2010), and Wars of Disruption and Resilience (2011). She is a past chair of the international security section of the American Political Science Association. Her current projects include “Cyber Westphalia: Redrawing International Economics, Conflict, and Global Structures,” and “Cyber Command: Understanding Varying Models as National Cyber Defense Experiments.”

Professor William G. Glenney IV is a research professor in the Institute for Future Warfare Studies (IFWS) of the U.S. Naval War College and was its founding director. His research efforts include identifying future warfare trends and defining roles and missions for future naval forces. He also manages international cooperation with partner institutions for IFWS. For eighteen years, he was the deputy director of the Chief of Naval Operations strategic studies group, guiding the group in the study of strategy and in the development of innovative naval warfare concepts addressing high-level wicked challenges with no apparent solutions. An honors graduate in mechanical engineering from the U.S. Naval Academy, Professor Glenney served for ten years on active duty in the nuclear propulsion program and submarine force, followed by twenty years in the Naval Reserve, retiring as captain after four tours as commanding officer. Prior to joining the strategic studies group, he worked at Sonalysts, a high-technology firm working principally on submarine real-world operations and intelligence matters.

Dr. Stephanie Hszieh is a senior strategy analyst at the U.S. Navy Naval Information Warfare Center (NIWC) Pacific in San Diego. As an analyst, Dr. Hszieh informs and supports NIWC Pacific’s efforts in strategic planning and

survey management. She also manages NIWC Pacific’s strategic management process and advises senior leaders on the implementation of the center’s strategy.

She has authored numerous publications on networking the global maritime partnership. She also co-authored Networking the Global Maritime Partnership, published by the Sea Power Centre of the Royal Australian Navy. She holds a PhD in political science from the University of Southern California.

Dr. Nina Kollars is associate professor in the Cyber and Innovation Policy Institute at the U.S. Naval War College. Her research investigates the security implications of the intersection of emerging technology, humans, and organizations, with emphasis on the role of practitioners in driving innovation. Her early work traced the innovative tinkering of U.S. soldiers during war and the U.S. Army’s capacity to harness that creativity. Her current work takes the same “bottom-up” analytical approach to cyber security. Dr. Kollars has studied and worked with the “white hat” computer hacking community for the past several years and is preparing a book manuscript revealing the national security contributions of white hat hackers to the United States. Prior to her PhD studies, Kollars was a researcher at diverse institutions including the DuBois Institute at Harvard University, the Federal Research Division of the Library of Congress, and the World Bank. She has lectured to national leaders and scholars on innovative cyber security and innovation, including at the Sloan School of Business at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the National Security Council, and the Army Capabilities and Integration Center. She holds a master’s degree from George Washington University and a PhD in political science from The Ohio State University.

Dr. Albert K. Legaspi is senior engineer for tactical and enterprise networks at the Naval Information Warfare Center, Pacific; serves as the science, technology, and engineering expert for Navy networks; and chairs the coalition network for secure information sharing. Previously, he served as the competency lead for network centric engineering and integration. He led engineering efforts in system-of-system modeling and simulation, for the joint information environment, for shipboard antenna design and analyses, and for global positioning systems. The former head of the network division, he continues to serve as the Navy’s technical area expert in networking. For the deputy chief

of naval operations for information warfare (OPNAV N6), Dr. Legaspi served as the head of the Network Centric Warfare Analysis Branch, as deputy director of the Navy Modeling and Simulation Office, and as the Navy’s representative to the Joint Chief of Staff’s Network Warfare Simulation program. He earned double bachelor’s degrees in mathematics and system engineering from the University of California, Los Angeles, and earned his master’s and PhD in electrical engineering from the University of California, San Diego. He has been awarded the Department of the Navy Meritorious Civilian Service Award.

Dr. Doug Lange is the distinguished scientist for machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) at the Naval Information Warfare Center, Pacific.

He began working on the development of command and control systems in 1983 after getting a bachelor of science degree in computer science and mathematics from the University of California, Davis. Subsequently, he earned a master’s degree and PhD from the Naval Postgraduate School. Dr. Lange has served on the staff of the Commander Seventh Fleet as a command, control, communications, and intelligence advisor and has led the engineering efforts of ashore and afloat systems. Participating in the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency Personalized Assistant that Learns program, Dr. Lange began to bring ML into the AI research occurring at the center and has worked through several projects to grow the center’s efforts to bring ML and AI into naval command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems.

Jeffrey Mah has served for more than thirty-three years as an engineer at the Naval Information Warfare Center Pacific. During his career, he has developed solutions and led teams addressing complex communications programs ranging from naval operational networks to classified National GeospatialIntelligence Agency external communications requirements. He has been a critical participant in the center’s systems development and support, which includes basic research, prototype development, systems engineering, and integration to life cycle support of fielded communications systems. His work has included partnering with industry, academia, and other government and nongovernmental entities. He is a graduate of the University of California, San Diego.

Lt. Cdr. Connor S. McLemore, USN, is an E-2C Hawkeye naval flight officer and qualified operations analyst and currently serves in the Office of the Chief of Naval Operations Assessment Division (OPNAV N81), where he conducts analysis of future fleet requirements. He completed numerous operational deployments during nineteen years of service in the U.S. Navy. With the “Sun Kings” of Carrier Command and Control Squadron 116 (VAW-116), he deployed to the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman in support of Operations Southern Watch, Iraqi Freedom, and Enduring Freedom. He is a graduate of the U.S. Naval Academy and the U.S. Navy Fighter Weapons School (Topgun), and he earned master’s degrees from the Naval War College and the Naval Postgraduate School, where his thesis was awarded the Military Operations Research Society’s Stephen A. Tisdale Graduate Research Award. In 2014 he returned to the Naval Postgraduate School as military assistant professor and the operations research program officer. During his tenure, he taught graduate-level programming courses and published two papers in highly ranked international scientific journals. He is co-author of the article “The Dawn of Artificial Intelligence in Naval Warfare” published on the public policy website War on the Rocks.

Dr. Dale L. Moore is Director, Strategy and Innovation, Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Navy for Research, Development, Test and Evaluation. He also serves as the lead for the Department of the Navy Thirty-Year Research and Development Plan. Dr. Moore has more than thirty-seven years of experience across a wide range of technical, management, and leadership activities supporting the U.S. Navy, the Department of Defense, and many affiliated community and academic institutions. Previously, he served as director, Strategic Initiative Coordination and Execution for the Naval Air Systems Command; as the assistant to the commander for strategic operations, Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division; and as the chief systems engineer for the Navy’s Unmanned Combat Air System. Dr. Moore holds a doctorate from George Washington University in human and organizational learning, leadership and change, a master’s degree with distinction in product development from the Naval Postgraduate School, and a bachelor’s degree in mechanical engineering. He has twice received the Department of the Navy Meritorious Civilian Service Award, is a member of the Department of Defense acquisition program management community, and is level III–certified in acquisition program management and systems engineering.

Michael O’Gara is a recognized expert in tactical data links and became the Naval Information Warfare Command’s enterprise technical warrant holder for integrated fires. As such, he served as Naval Information Warfare Center Pacific lead for advancing integrated fires between all naval research and development centers, earning a reputation for successful collaboration across the Navy and Defense technical communities. Currently, Mr. O’Gara is detailed to the Pentagon to serve as the technical advisor to the Chief of Naval Operations (OPNAV) Digital Warfare Office where he focuses on the employment of AI by the Navy. He continues to champion cross-warfare center development of a persistent, distributed live, virtual, and constructive environment for test and experimentation. A native of San Diego, California, he graduated from the U.S. Naval Academy in 1984 and chose a career as a surface warfare officer. During his active-duty career, he made eight deployments to the Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and Arabian Gulf, across seven sea tours that began on USS Long Beach (CGN 9) and ended on USS John C. Stennis (CVN 74). He has earned two graduate degrees from National University and an engineering certificate in model-based systems engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Mark Owen is the senior scientific technical manager for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance at the Naval Information Warfare Center Pacific and the center’s first multi-intelligence and correlation technology lead. His group conducts research, development, and system fielding of advanced multi-intelligence fusion technologies in support of Department of the Navy/ Department of Defense requirements and national intelligence community initiatives. This includes naval capabilities in distributed intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance data analytics and predictive intelligence. Previously he was the U.S. Navy lead of the five-nation Technical Cooperation Program, C3I Group, Technical Panel on Information Fusion, and has twenty-eight years of experience in the research and development of signal processing and data fusion technologies. He is the author or co-author of thirty papers on the subjects of data fusion, neural network tracking, multi-hypothesis tracking, and neural network control, and he provided significant contributions to the book Concepts, Models and Tools for Information Fusion. He received the Dr. Delores M. Etter Top Scientists and Engineers of the Year Award for exceptional scientific and engineering achievement and the SSC Pacific Galileo

Award for excellence in S&T for automated radar modeling and characterization. Mr. Owen earned a bachelor’s and master’s degree in electrical engineering from California State University, Long Beach.

Dr. Katie Rainey is a scientist at the Naval Information Warfare Center Pacific, where she conducts research into the robustness of machine learning algorithms for Navy applications. Her recent focus includes algorithm development for analyzing imagery from multiple sources and sensors, particularly under ocean environmental conditions. She is also the general chair and co-founder of the workshop on naval applications of machine learning, the premier technical forum for machine learning research in the defense community, and is active in building the community of AI researchers among defense laboratories. Dr. Rainey, a San Diego native, studied math as an undergraduate at the University of California (UC), Berkeley, and as a graduate student at UC Irvine, and received her PhD in mathematics at UC Irvine in 2010.

Adm. Michael S. Rogers, USN (Ret.), is currently supporting multiple companies in the private sector as board member, senior advisor or venture partner.

He is also an adjunct professor at Northwestern University Kellogg School of Management and speaks globally on issues of cyber security, technology, geopolitics and leadership. A naval cryptology officer, his last activeduty assignment was as the commander of United States Cyber Command (USCYBERCOM) and the National Security Agency, responsible for U.S. electronic and cyber intelligence and defense. He was the first of the then-new information warfare community officers to be promoted to the rank of admiral. During his tour, he helped elevate USCYBERCOM into a unified combatant command. Previously he had been commander, U.S. Tenth Fleet and Fleet Cyber Command. During his career, he also served as the head of intelligence for U.S. Pacific Command and the Joint Staff. He is a graduate of Auburn University, a distinguished graduate of the National War College and a graduate of highest distinction from the Naval War College. He is also an MIT Seminar XXI Fellow and a Harvard Senior Executive in National Security alumnus..

Paul Scharre is a senior fellow and director of the technology and national security program at the Center for a New American Security. He is the author of Army of None: Autonomous Weapons and the Future of War, which won the

2019 Colby Award and was named as one of Bill Gates’ top five books of 2018. From 2008 to 2013 Mr. Scharre worked in the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) where he played a leading role in establishing policies on unmanned and autonomous systems and emerging weapons technologies. He led the Department of Defense working group that drafted Directive 3000.09, establishing the department’s policies on autonomy in weapon systems. He was appointed Special Assistant to the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy.

Prior to joining OSD, Mr. Scharre served as a special operations reconnaissance team leader in the U.S. Army’s 3rd Ranger Battalion and completed multiple tours to Iraq and Afghanistan. Mr. Scharre has published numerous articles, testified before the House and Senate Armed Services Committees, and has presented at the United Nations. He holds a master of arts in political economy and public policy and a bachelor of science in physics, cum laude, both from Washington University in St. Louis.

Harrison Schramm is a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, where he most recently led their study on “COVID-19: Analysis and Policy Implications.” He has contributed to studies on artificial intelligence, maritime logistics, and future naval forces. During his U.S. Navy career, he served as helicopter pilot, military assistant professor of operations research at the Naval Postgraduate School, and operations research analyst at the Pentagon. In addition to military awards including the Meritorious Service Medal and Air Medal, he was recognized by the Naval Helicopter Association as a member of the Aircrew of the Year. A leader in the operations research community, he is a past vice president of the Military Operations Research Society and has received numerous professional awards, including the Clayton Thomas award for distinguished service to the profession of operations research. His published work has appeared in INTERFACES, the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, SIGNIFICANCE, the Journal of Mathematical Biosciences, U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, OR/MS Today, and Military Operations Research.

Antonio P. Siordia is a senior program manager with the intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance department at the Naval Information Warfare Center Pacific, where he leads several efforts within the autonomous systems division. Prior to this, he completed a detail assignment as a program manager at the Office of the Secretary of Defense Strategic Capabilities Office. Previous

assignments include the Office of Naval Research science advisor to the commander, U.S. Seventh Fleet, embarked on USS Blue Ridge, and director’s fellow to the Chief of Naval Operations strategic studies group in Newport, RI. He holds graduate degrees from the University of California, San Diego, and the Naval Postgraduate School.

Adm. James G. Stavridis, USN (Ret.), is an operating executive advising the Carlyle Group’s executive team and investment professionals on geopolitical and national security issues. Previously, he served as dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. Admiral Stavridis was the first naval officer to serve as Supreme Allied Commander, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and commander, U.S. European Command, leading the NATO alliance in global operations from 2009 to 2013. He also served as commander of U.S. Southern Command, with responsibility for military operations in Latin America from 2006 to 2009. In his thirty-fiveyear naval career, he commanded a destroyer, destroyer squadron, and carrier strike group—all serving in combat. He is a distinguished graduate of the U.S. Naval Academy and earned a master of arts in law and diplomacy and PhD in international relations from the Fletcher School. A prolific author on global security issues, Admiral Stavridis has published nine books and regularly writes for the New York Times, Washington Post, Atlantic, Time, Naval War College Review, and U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings. He is also chief international security analyst for NBC News.

Dr. Patrick K. Sullivan founded Oceanit Laboratories in 1985 as a self-funded research and development technology incubator that today employs more than 200 scientists, engineers, and professionals, providing innovative solutions in the fields of aerospace, engineering, information technology, and life sciences.

Oceanit has created cutting-edge innovations in bio-photonics, neurotoxin detection, optics, missile defense technology, space debris management, children’s health, and environmental applications that are the subject of numerous reports and patents. Dr. Sullivan has extensive experience on boards and commissions, serving or having served on the national Ocean Research Advisory Panel (appointed by the Secretary of the Navy), Parker Ranch, High Technology Development Corporation, Rehabilitation Hospital of the Pacific,

Nanopoint, and Hoana Medical. He has developed nationally focused research programs, including the National Defense Center of Excellence for Research in Ocean Sciences and the National Electric Vehicle Demonstration program, both collaborations with the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

He is the author of Intellectual Anarchy: The Art of Disruptive Innovation. He also serves as the honorary consul of Indonesia. Dr. Sullivan received his bachelor of science in engineering from the University of Colorado, Boulder, and his PhD in engineering from the University of Hawaii.

Adm. Scott H. Swift, USN (Ret.), is founder of The Swift Group LLC, former Massachusetts Institute of Technology Center for International Studies Robert E. Wilhelm Fellow, MIT Research Affiliate, Senior Fellow at the Center for Naval Analysis, Adjunct Professor at the Naval War College and board member of the U.S. Naval Institute. Former commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, Admiral Swift served for more than forty years as a naval aviator. His operational assignments include Attack Squadron 94 (VA-94); Attack Squadron 97 (VA-97); Carrier Air Wing 11 staff; commander, Strike Fighter Attack Squadron 97 (VFA-97); commander, Carrier Air Wing 14; deputy commander, Naval Forces, U.S. Central Command in Bahrain; commander, Carrier Strike Group (CSG) 9; and commander, U.S. 7th Fleet, Yokosuka, Japan. During those assignments, he participated in combat in Operations Praying Mantis, Southern Watch, Enduring Freedom, and Iraqi Freedom. His shore tour assignments include commander of Strike Fighter Weapons School, Pacific; F/A-18 requirements officer, Navy Staff (OPNAV); commander, Strike Fighter Attack Squadron 122 (VFA-122); staff of the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics; director of operations, U.S. Pacific Command; and director, OPNAV. He is a graduate of San Diego State University and earned a master’s degree from the U.S. Naval War College.

Dr. Gavin Taylor is associate professor of computer science at the U.S. Naval Academy. He is an award-winning teacher and an active researcher in many areas of machine learning, including reinforcement learning, data poisoning, and the optimization of neural networks. His most recent writings have been on adversarial attacks against AI systems. He also co-directs the academy’s Center for High Performance Computing. His bachelor’s degree is in mathematics from Davidson College, and his master’s degree and PhD in computer

science are from Duke University. He joined the USNA faculty immediately after completion of his studies. A recent online student review stated, “This guy could teach a rock how to program.”

Rachel Volner is a senior strategy analyst at the Naval Information Warfare Center Pacific, the Navy’s center of excellence for the development of command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, cyber, and space-based capabilities, where her current focus is on strategic and technical forecasting. Prior to that, she earned a master’s degree in international affairs from the University of California, San Diego, with a regional emphasis on China and a concentration in public policy. In addition to strategic and technical forecasting, she concentrates her analysis on the security and economic developments in the Indo-Pacific region.

The Honorable Robert O. Work is currently Distinguished Senior Fellow for Defense and National Security at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) and vice-chair of the Congressionally-mandated National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence. Secretary Work previously served as the deputy secretary of defense, responsible for overseeing the day-to-day business of the Pentagon and developing the department’s $600 billion defense program. He is credited for his work on the third offset strategy, which aimed to restore U.S. conventional overmatch over potential adversaries. Prior to serving as deputy secretary, Secretary Work spent one year as chief executive officer of CNAS after serving as Undersecretary of the Navy from 2009 to 2013. Following a twenty-seven-year active-duty career in the U.S. Marine Corps, retiring as colonel, he was a senior fellow and vice president for strategic studies at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. He was also an adjunct professor at George Washington University. Secretary Work received a bachelor of science from the University of Illinois at Champaign-Urbana, a master of science in systems management from the University of Southern California, a master of science in systems technology (space systems operations) from the Naval Postgraduate School, and a master in international public policy from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

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