Teimuraz Papaskiri Tbilisi State University, Georgia
Reconsidering Russian Foreign Policy in the 21st Century
The Russian occupation of Crimea in February-March 2014, marked the beginning of a new phase of tension between the Western world and Russia. Although it was predicted several years prior to the conflict that Ukraine would be Russia’s next victim,1 nobody paid much attention to these warnings. Thus, the Russian moves proved surprising for most Western societies, especially for the leaders of Western countries. It effectively ended 1
Then Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, along with some other experts, made numerous warnings both before and after the Russian-Georgian War of 2008. He made those assertions not only in interviews, but in the talks with the US officials too. These are two examples (emphasis added – T.P.) of his warnings: “This order was based on principles that borders are inviolable and small states have the same rights as great ones. What we see now is that Russia and Prime Minister Putin exactly undermine these principles. We see a policy of repartition, which dates from the 19th century, according to the motto: We are back on stage, now we show you how strong we are. And because we are so strong, we must get more than others. Georgia is just the beginning. Tomorrow it will be Ukraine, the Baltic States, Poland.” (“Diese Ordnung beruhte auf Prinzipien: Dass Grenzen unverletzlich sind und kleine Staaten dieselben Rechte haben wie große. Was wir aber jetzt sehen, ist, dass Russland und Ministerpräsident Putin genau diese Prinzipien untergraben. Wir sehen eine Politik der Umverteilung, die aus dem 19. Jahrhundert stammt, nach dem Motto: Wir sind zurück auf der Bühne, jetzt zeigen wir Euch, wie stark wir sind. Und weil wir so stark sind, müssen wir mehr bekommen als andere. Georgien ist nur der Anfang. Morgen ist es die Ukraine, dann die baltischen Staaten, Polen.” – WELT ONLINE: Georgien wirft Russland Zaren-Gebaren vor. Das Interview mit Michail Saakaschwili, 26.06.2008, accessed May 15, 2016, http://www.welt.de/politik/article2145974/Georgienwirft-Russland-Zaren-Gebaren-vor.html); “Saakashvili stressed repeatedly that he expected Russia to follow its 2008 invasion of Georgia with intervention in Crimea. He predicted that Russia would incite tension in the peninsula and then make a generous offer to Yanukovych (presumed as the next president) to help solve the problem. Saakashvili said that Putin wants to keep the pressure on Ukraine and Georgia as a lesson and a warning to others in the former Soviet Union.” – Georgia: Misha Tells ASD Vershbow Georgia Is Committed to Peaceful Integration and a Long-Term Defense. Confidential. From American Embassy in Tbilisi (Georgia) to Department of Defense, Group Destinations European Political Collective, National Security Council, Secretary of State, United Nations (New York). November 2, 2009, accessed May 15, 2016, https://www.wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/09TBILISI1965_a.html.
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