OCTOBER 15, 2012
Concerns over monetary policy implications of Budget 2013 BY BABAJIDE KOMOLAFE, MICHAEL EBOH, GODWIN ORITSE, ROSEMARY ONUOHA & NKIRUKA NNOROM
E
xperts have expressed concern that the budget 2013 proposed by theFederal Government would lead to tight money supply next year and thus undermine credit to the economy, job creation and growth. On Wednesday, President Goodluck Jonathan presented a budget of N4.9 trillion for the 2013 fiscal year. This represented five per cent increase when compared to N 4.697 trillion budgeted for 2012 fiscal year. “Inflation is likely to rise unless the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) maintains a tight monetary stance,” says the Ecobank Research team in a comment on the budget. According to Razi Khan, Regional Head of Research, Africa, for Standard Chartered Bank; “The increase in spending is relatively small, only five per cent. In real terms, this, of course,
means that spending does not increase. Provided this budget is actually adhered to, this should imply minimal pressure on money supply, with little need for the CBN to tighten further. However, what has not been disclosed is the broader plan on fuel subsidy - will it be maintained, diminished, or removed? Whatever happens on this front could also be meaningful for the inflation outlook, and therefore, for monetary policy.” Since 2011, the CBN has increasingly tightened money supply in a bid to hold down inflation. Among other things, the apex bank increased the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), six times from 6.0 per cent to 12 per cent; it also reduced banks’ ability to lend money by increasing the Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) from 4.0 per cent to 12 per cent. These measures, according to Mr. Goodie Ibru, President, Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), has made it difficult and
expensive for the private sector to access credit. He said unfortunately the budget presented by the President is silent on the monetary policy implications of the N4.9 trillion. He said; “The budget speech has no monetary policy content. It would have been useful for the President to highlight the thrust of monetary policy as this is critical to the realisation of inclusive growth and fiscal consolidation. This is even more so at a time when businesses are facing severe challenges with regard to access and cost of credit. The banking system currently has zero tolerance for risk and this is stifling private sector growth and the capacity of entrepreneurs to create jobs. Collateral demands for loans are as high as 200 per cent. This is a negation of the objective of inclusive growth and a real threat to financial intermediation. Additionally, the government is progressively crowding out the private sector in the credit market. These are fundamental issues that need to be addressed to
stimulate growth and create jobs.” On his part, Managing Director/ Chief Executive, Financial Derivative Company Limited, Mr. Bismark Rewane, said that the budget has little prospect for economic transformation. He said the spending proposed by the Federal Government is not adequate to address the problem of high unemployment confronting the nation. He said; “The budget is a tool of economic management, and you have to ask yourself what is the state of the economy? “First and foremost, Nigeria is witnessing from 2010 till today, a slight decline in our rate of growth, from 7.1 per cent to about 6.85 per cent last quarter. The projection this year is for 6.5 per cent growth as against last year when we had seven per cent projection. Our expectations have been lowered to meet the reality
Continues on page 18
160.05
-0.70
2,344.00
-7.00
20.03
-0.42
113.69 92.34
-0.99 +0.27
CURRENCY BUYING CENTRAL SELLING
*From left: Head, Business Advisory Unit, Human Capital Management and Development, First Bank of Nigeria Plc, Mrs. Kofoworola Adebayo (left); Head, FirstAcademy, Mr. Oshiomha Irumhekha; Head, Human Capital Management and Development, First Bank, Mrs. Ayodele Jaiyesimi; and Head, HR Support Unit, First Bank, Ms. Barbara Harper showcasing the Chartered Institute of Personnel Management of Nigeria’s awards for Overall Best Winner for Best HR Practice 2012 and winner, HR Best Practice for Banking and Insurance Sector won by First Bank recently. C M Y K
DOLLAR 154.75 STERLING 248.3428 EURO 200.0144 FRANC 165.3842 YEN 1.9741 CFA 0.2866 WAUA 237.4219 RENMINBI 24.6506 RIYAL 41.2645 KRONA 26.8514 SDR 238.1138
155.25 155.75 249.1452 249.9476 200.6606 201.3069 165.9186 166.4529 1.9805 1.9869 0.2966 0.3066 238.189 238.9561 24.7307 24.8108 41.3978 41.5311 26.9382 27.0249 238.8832 239.6525
CBN Exchange rate as at 12/10/2012 C M Y K