JANUARY 21, 2013
Inflation: CBN should maintain tight monetary policy — Experts BY BABAJIDE KOMOLAFE
T
he inflation figures released last week by the National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, which show that prices of goods and services are still rising, indicate that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will maintain its tight monetary policy, when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets today, said financial experts. Inflation measures the rate of increase in the prices of goods and services people consume every day. It is measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The Inflation figures released by the NBS shows that while the general rate of increase in prices (headline inflation) declined to 12.0 per cent in December from 12.3 per cent in November, Core inflation, which is the rate of increase of goods and services excluding farm produce , rose to 13.7 per cent from 13.1 per cent. The increase was attributed to rising prices of essential goods and services like housing, electricity and gas. According to the Bureau, “The increases in the Core (inflation) index were as a result of increases in the Housing, Electricity, Gas and other Fuels division, in particular liquid (kerosene) and solid fuels (firewood and charcoal), rental and imputed rent prices, clothing prices, garment prices, and air transport fares.” Reviewing this development ahead of the MPC meeting today, financial experts said this implies that there are still inflationary threats in the economy, especially the huge budgetary spending planned for this year by the Federal Government hence they expect the CBN to maintain its tight monetary policy. “In order to adjust monetary policy however, the MPC will need to be
*From left: Gov. Babatunde Fashola of Lagos, chief host, Oba Rilwan Akiolu, Oba of Lagos, and Mr. Abimbola Shodipo, Special Adviser to Governor Fashola on Taxation and Revenue, during the 6th Lagos State Taxation Stakeholders' conference, held in Ikeja, Lagos. Photo: Bunmi Azeez more certain that lower inflation can be achieved on a sustainable basis. With the threat of a higher benchmark crude price being adopted in the 2013 budget, we’re not certain that can be taken for granted for the moment. On this basis, we forecast unchanged monetary policy next week”, said Razia Khan, Head of Regional Research, Africa, Standard Chartered Bank. Also commenting on the development, analysts at Afrinvest PLC said, “We however believe that the upward review of the oil price benchmark to $79 per barrel as contained in the recently passed 2013 budget, provides additional room for increased government spending and therefore poses a direct upside threat to inflation. We therefore expect the
CBN’s Monetary Policy Committee to keep the MPR on hold at its next committee meeting scheduled for early next week." “Ahead of the meeting of the MPC next week and existing inflationary threats, we are conscious of the fact that rates might be held at current levels. However, we maintain our position on gradual reduction of the benchmark rate to single-digit levels even as we remain optimistic on the attainment of single digit rate in the current fiscal year," analysts at Proshare commented. Since 2011, the CBN has been operating a tight money supply policy, so as to check the rate at which prices of goods and services rise in the
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155.95
0.45
2,282.00
-18.00
18.4
-0.02
111.78 +0.68 95.55 +0.06 CURRENCY BUYING CENTRAL DOLLAR POUNDS EURO FRANC YEN CFA WAUA RENMINBI RIYA KRONA SDR
154.72 246.6392 206.6131 165.9196 1.7222 0.2963 237.2893 24.8913 41.2554 27.678 238.0522
155.22 247.4362 207.2808 166.4558 1.7277 0.3063 238.0562 24.9722 41.3887 27.7674 238.8215
SELLING 155.72 248.2333 207.9485 166.992 1.7333 0.3163 238.823 25.0531 41.522 27.8569 239.5908
CBN Exchange rate as at 18 /01/2013 C M Y K