Financial Vanguard

Page 1

JANUARY 28, 2013

From left, President, Association of Primary Aluminum Producers and Chairman, Qualitec Industries Limited, Chief Yinka Kufile; Director, Special Duties, Mr. George Okere and Director-General, Dr. Joseph Odumosu, both of Standard Organization of Nigeria (SON) during an interactive stakeholders meeting between the SON D-G and members of the Association of Primary Aluminum Producers held last Wednesday in Lagos.

World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland that the world economy will slow down again in 2013. The International Monetary Fund, she said, has cut its global growth forecasts and now projects a second year of contraction in the euro region as progress in battling Europe’s debt crisis fails to produce an economic recovery. The world economy, she said, will expand 3.5 per cent this year, less than the 3.6 per cent forecast in October, in an update of its World Economic Outlook report. While the fund projects growth this year increasing from last year’s 3.2 per cent pace, it expects the 17-country to shrink 0.2 per cent in 2013, instead of growing 0.2 per cent as forecast in October. If Nigeria oil is to seek market in Europe, it certainly will have a hard job to do. To buttress why the budget may not be realisable in its present form, available data indicates that as at the middle of January 2013, the United States gets so much crude from its own shale deposits that Canadian exporters to US are compelled to sell as far afield as Europe, showing how deeply the U.S. energy revolution is transforming global oil flows. According to EIA, as recently as 2011, close to 100 per cent of Canada's crude exports went to its neighbour, the United States. But January

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2013 budget in trouble before endorsement BY OMOH GABRIEL, Business Editor

I

ndications are that the 2013 budget is already facing challenges and may not be fully implemented. The budget may have to be reviewed with the oil bench assuming a far lower benchmark than the $75 proposed by the executive. This is because Nigeria crude oil sale is facing difficulty finding market. The United States of America which takes a huge chunk of Nigeria crude will from this month, January add about 900,000 per day to its daily production of 6.5million barrel per day thus raising its total output to 7.4 million

barrel per day. Already on the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in March traded at $96.04 a barrel in the Globex electronic session. Also March Brent crude on London's ICE Futures exchange fell $0.14 to $113.14 a barrel. The crude oil production in the US, according to the latest monthly report of US Government's Energy Information Administration (EIA, averaged

about 6.5 million barrels per day in September 2012.

The EIA predicts the US to overtake Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world's biggest producer of oil by 2017. Also, on the anvil: US becoming self-sufficient in oil by 2035 and

North America trudging on to become a net oil exporter sometime around the year 2030. , for its part, expects North America as an exporter of oil and gas 'by the middle of the next decade.' Both these reports, if you care, are closely monitored by oil investors. If you're one, do factor the EIA prediction of oil production at 6.8 million barrels per day in 2013, which will put in the at about $3.44 per gallon next year as against the 3.64 gallon in 2012. Yet, from the longterm perspective this is definitely a good time to be in a region with immense potential for growth. This is coming on the heels of the warning issued by IMF Managing Director, Ms Christine Lagarde at the

147.65

1.1

2,167.00

-28.00

18.41

-0.08

113.40 +0.12 95.93

--0.02

CURRENCY BUYING CENTRAL DOLLAR POUNDS EURO FRANC YEN CFA WAUA RENMINBI RIYA KRONA SDR

154.73 244.0092 207.8952 167.4024 1.7003 0.2959 236.6431 24.8725 41.2569 27.8537 237.4022

155.23 244.7977 208.567 167.9433 1.7058 0.3059 237.4078 24.9533 41.3903 27.9437 238.1694

SELLING 155.73 245.5862 209.2388 168.4843 1.7113 0.3159 238.1725 25.0342 41.5236 28.0337 238.9365

CBN Exchange rate as at 25/01/2013


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