SDGs in BiH: Reform Processes – Leaving No one Behind by Vanjskopoliticka inicijativa BH

Analysis 3/16

Political Analysis

Sarajevo, December 2016

SDGs IN BIH REFORM PROCESSES: LEAVING NO ONE BEHIND

Igor KosiÄ&#x2021;

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Supported by: This independent analysis was done by Foreign Policy Initiative BH (FPI BH) ďŹ nancially supported by Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES). Attitudes expressed in this publication are therefore attitudes of FPI BH and do not express attitudes of Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.

Contact: info@vpi.ba www.vpi.ba

Table of Contents Table of Contents .................................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 2 Bosnia And Herzegovina from Rio (1992) to New York (2015) ............................................................ 3 Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Millennium Development Goals ........................................................ 5 Development policies in BiH .................................................................................................................. 9 SDGs and the Reform Agenda: Synergies or Frictions? ....................................................................... 13 Are there obvious priority SDGs for Bosnia and Herzegovina? ........................................................... 19 Which practical steps have been taken to implement the SDGs in BiH so far? .................................... 25 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................. 28 Bibliography .......................................................................................................................................... 31 References ......................................................................................................................................... 31 List of Tables and Charts................................................................................................................... 35 APPENDIX ........................................................................................................................................... 36

Introduction The United Nations Sustainable Development Summit was held in 2015 in New York. The meeting was labelled as the largest gathering of the World leaders up to date and a big step forward for humanity. The “product” of the summit was a new 2015-2030 Agenda for sustainable development containing 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The agenda was adopted unanimously by all 193 member states of the United Nations and like all of the other member states of the UN, Bosnia and Herzegovina has endorsed and committed to the implementation of this agenda. The new global policy framework follows the long path of sustainable development policies of the UN which have started from the “Earth Summit” in 1992. As an “universal call to action to end poverty, protect the planet and ensure that all people enjoy peace and prosperity“, the SDGs are built upon their predecessors, the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which were recognized as a success and a useful tool in focusing achievement of specific development targets. During the period of the implementation of MDG policies, Bosnia and Herzegovina has signed the Stabilization and Association agreement with the European Union (2008). Following a seven year period marked by political, social and economic turmoil, the agreement has finally entered into force in 2015. New challenges for BiH lay ahead on the path towards EU integration, and the “Reform Agenda” stands out among the policy frameworks to deal with these challenges. This particular agenda, created by the IMF, World Bank, European Union and together with local political elites in 2014, sets out the main plans for socio-economic and related reforms of all levels of government. While the short-term “Reform Agenda” (2015-2018) is the most prominent policy-framework for progress and development as of now, the implementation of a far wider-ranging “Reform Agenda”, The Sustainable Development Goals, has started. The Policy Analysis shall shed some light on this important long-term policy framework in a political environment that is mostly preoccupied with day-to-day politics. The first part of the analysis will focus on the review of the past trends regarding BiH and its development policies. An overview of BiH‟s role in negotiations from Rio (1992) to New York (2015) will be given, followed by the evaluation of progress that BiH had with the realization of the MDGs. Advantages and disadvantages of previous Development Policies as well as the obstacles and challenges BiH had to overcome with the implementation of MDGs will be identified. The second part of the Analysis will focus on the evaluation of the SDGs trough the policy framework of “Reform Agenda”, determining to which degree the SDGs are in

harmonization with current Development Policy in BiH. Such comparison will easily identify the priority SDGs for Bosnia and Herzegovina. The overall goal of the analysis is to develop suggestions and Policy Recommendations for BiH decision makers, international partners and the UN-System regarding the successful implementation and fulfilment of the Sustainable Development Goals.

Bosnia And Herzegovina from Rio (1992) to New York (2015) In 1992 the UN Conference on Development and Environment known as the “Earth Summit” was held in Rio de Janeiro. One of the results of the conference was a non-binding voluntarily implemented action plan titled “Agenda 21”. The tittle of the action plan, “Agenda 21”, had a specific meaning, with number “21” referring to the 21st century. The “Agenda 21” would become one of the most significant UN documents marking the beginning of UN policies towards sustainable development in 21st century. It would take time for Bosnia and Herzegovina to start implementing

the

“Agenda

21”.

Bosnia

and

Herzegovina became a member of United Nations on 22.05.1992. As a former republic of the Socialist Federal Republic of Jugoslavija (SFRJ), BiH also became a contracting party for the conventions and

“Humanity stands at a defining moment in history. We are confronted with a perpetuation of disparities between and within nations, a worsening of poverty, hunger, ill health and illiteracy, and the continuing deterioration of the ecosystems on which we depend for our well-being. However, integration of environment and development concerns and greater attention to them will lead to the fulfilment of basic needs, improved living standards for all, better protected and managed ecosystems and a safer, more prosperous future. No nation can achieve this on its own; but together we can - in a global partnership for sustainable development” (United Nations, 1992).

treaties ratified by SFRJ (MFA BiH, 2016). As the Conference in Rio was held in June the same year, BiH was entering the third month of the armed conflict, which would last until 1995. Consequently, during the Rio +5 Convention in 1997, the focus from the improvement of the sustainable development policies was shifted to the rebuilding of the destroyed infrastructure and to the improvement of all aspects of state governance (UNPAN, 2002). Numerous UN offices were established in BiH in the years following the war; most notably the United Nations Development Programme in BiH, established in 1996 with a goal of moving BiH from post-conflict recovery towards sustainable development. In the year 2000, the UN Millennium Summit was held in New

York. The aim of the summit was to shape a broad vision of how to fight poverty in its many dimensions and with regards to sustainable development in the 21st century. The delegation of Bosnia and Herzegovina was present at the summit. At that time, BiH ranked as a lower middle income country with a GDP of around 5.5 billion dollars (World Bank, 2016). The integration of Bosnia and Herzegovina from within, the integration of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a whole into EuroAtlantic institutions and further socio-economic development on the regional level were identified as the three factors of the highest importantance for the future of BiH (A/55/PV.4, 2000). The result of the Summit was the Millennium Declaration with 8 development goals in the centre, known as Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). All member states of the United Nations at that time, including Bosnia and Herzegovina have committed to help achieve the Millennium Development Goals, and therefore the MDGs became the most unversal development framework in the world for the past 15 years.

At the Rio+20 Conference in Rio de Janeiro, BiH expressed its readiness to take and share responsibilities regarding environmental issues, recognizing that no country can solve these issues alone. As such, solving environmental issues require regional cooperation and “green infrastructure” for BiH. It is important to note that cooperation with the EU was recognized as integral for BiH in regards to environmental issues and that BiH supported the stance of the EU in the negotiations (Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Relations BiH, 2012). Therefore it can be concluded that BiH harmonized its position in regards to the drafting of a document tittled “The future we want” (A/66/L.56) and in the creation of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) with the European Union. Following Rio+20, the new 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development containing 17 SDGs was adopted unanimously by all 193 member states of the United Nations at the United Nations Sustainable Development Summit in 2015 in New York. The BiH delegation recognized the importance of the Agenda stating that previous agendas provided “sufficiently solid foundation to transform the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (resolution 70/1) into a reality, rather than a utopia“. Again, the position of BiH was in the compliance with the position of the EU (A/70/PV.22).

Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Millennium Development Goals

Achievement of the Millennium Development Goals represented an important development policy for Bosnia and Herzegovina, as the country was recovering from the war. The MDGs as such were created universally, the same for each country, but targets to meet the targets within the goals, were tailored for each country specifically. The eight areas which are covered by the MDGs are broad in scope, with the main focus on the situation in low-income countries. It is arguable to which extent specific targets for broad goals are actually useful for middle income countries (European Commission, 2016). Even as BiH was in the beginning phase of the policies of implementation regarding the fulfillment of MDGs, the importance of certain targets within the areas was argued, due the fact that these areas were already well developed, stating that the UN has defined these goals too general (UNDP, 2003). Nevertheless, when it comes to these areas, keeping the present state and achieving slight improvements was the main focus for BiH. In 2003, BiH has included MDG indicators into the first Medium-Development Strategy for the period 2004-2007. As such, achievement of the MDG targets was at the core of the strategy, becoming an integral part. Despite the initially promising efforts, the 2008â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2013 Development and Social Inclusion Strategy never received the political endorsement of the Council of Ministers. (UNECE, 2015). The UN agencies in BiH were awarded with Joint UN Programmes valued at 25 million US$ funded by the Millennium Development Goals Achievement Fund (MDG-F) for the areas of Environment, Economic governance of water management, Culture and development and Youth-employment-migration (UNDP, 2015). It can be identified that BiH has not achieved any of the goals until 2013. All in all, around 30 percent of the targets within the goals were already achieved by 2014. 17 percent were likely, while 17 percent present were potentially to be achieved. 36 percent of the targets were unlikely to be achieved (see â&#x20AC;&#x153;MDG progress in BiHâ&#x20AC;? table in the APENDIX).

Goal by goal review Goal 1: Eliminate extreme poverty and hunger - BiH has shown the worst performance in regards to this goal. None of the targets have been met, and on the contrary, the situation is worsening for 2/3 of the targets compared to the base year (see Appendix). According to the World Bank, the poverty headcount ratio in BiH decreased from 18.2 percent to 17.9 percent in 2011 with regards to national poverty lines1. Youth unemployment is a burning issue, with the rates increasing by 23 percent from the year 2000 to overall 57,5 percent in 2014 (World Bank, 2015). For the same year, the World average was 13,9 percent. Regular unemployment rates are extremely high and combined with the fact that 57,5 percent of total unemployed people are people from 15 to 24 this is deeply worrying. Since the GDP growth slowed and eventually stopped, the number of people living below the absolute poverty line increased. All of the indicators are alarming and unanimously point to systematic and deep problems in the economy of BiH, which are not easily solvable. Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education - Some of the targets within the goals were met with more ease, due to policies and practices which were inherited from the SFRJ (a higher education enrollment rate). However, a lot of efforts were invested too. The percentages of GDP allocated for education have been increasing throughout the 15 year period resulting in visible improvement. Challenges lay ahead regarding pre-school enrollment rates, minority groups, children with special needs and displaced persons. Goal 1 and Goal 2 are very closely interconnected. There is still a big gap between education and employment, meaning that the demands of the labor market are presently not met with the educational system. According to the European Delegation in BiH a strong link between labor market and education is a central requirement for knowledge based economic growth in BiH. This remains a big problem. Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women â&#x20AC;&#x201C; A law on gender equality exists since 2003. â&#x20AC;&#x17E;The adoption of such law was a first step in combating gender inequality. The Gender Equality Agency and numerous centers were opened throughout the years. A lot of efforts have been made since then, but a lot of hard work is still ahead for BiH. The targets have not been reached, but compared to the baseline, a positive change is evident. Although the numbers of female students are higher than male students, the proportion is still completely different on the labor market and when it comes to participation in public and 1

According to the UNDP MDGs Progress Report (2013), national poverty line was set at 235 BAM.

political life. None the less numbers have improved with the share of female representatives in the Parliament of BiH and the share of women in wage employment increasing from 2000 onwards, but not evenly. The situation for Roma woman and girls is still very difficult. Goal 4: Reduce child mortality - The targets have been met, but the data is particularly misleading. From the statistics, it is evident that continuous improvement had been made, with rates dropping annually. Unfortunately, although the goals have been met, there is still a lot of work in this area. For example, child mortality among vulnerable groups, especially Roma children is around 26.02, which is significantly higher than the average of 7.0. Goal 5 and 6: Improve maternal health and Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases - Most of the targets regarding these two goals have been met or kept under control. In order to improve in regards to MDG 5 it is necessary to further educate the BiH population and improve existing healthcare and social protection services. With regards to combating HIV/AIDS, Voluntary Confidential Counseling and Testing Centers (VCCT) have been formed, which was an important step in such process. Regarding tuberculosis prevalence, a fairly developed network of health infrastructure exsists. BiH has a coordinating institution for the monitoring and implementation of the global fund programme for the combat against HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis. On the other hand there are several potential risks related to tuberculosis and the implementation of the National Tuberculosis Programme (NTP). A relevant policy/strategic and regulatory framework needs to be further developed, updated and aligned with NTP. Therefore, the statistics have varied over the past 15 years, but in average kept under control and steady. Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability - Environmental policies are not mentioned explicitly in the Constitution of BiH. Under Act III, Article (3) of the Constitution it stated that all of the matters not explicitly mentioned in the Constitution are under the jurisdiction of Entities and District Brcko. As such, the law on environment and all the other laws and directives regarding environmental policies are under the jurisdiction of the entities. Consequently, laws regarding environmental policies are not unified and mostly, inter-entity bodies are created for the cooperation of the entities. The exception is in the fulfillment of international obligations in the context of the environment, which are under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Relations of Bosnia and Herzegovina. In 2003, the National Environmental Action Plan was created, in which the adoption of legislative 2

UNICEF Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) 2011. - 2012. on Roma in BiH

provisions, management practices, and financial and institutional frameworks to the policies and practices of the EU is defined as one of the overall goals. And indeed, efforts have been made to harmonize the legislation with the EU in regards to environment. In the past years a considerable amount of strategies for various segments of environment have been created in order to improve environmental practices. Implementation of these plans remains the biggest challenge. The waste management system, for example, still is underdeveloped and does not meet the goals presented in the law. While the Waste Management Plan of FBiH for the period 2012-2017 identifies regional waste management centers with recycling yards as a necessity in order to improve waste management system, no recycling yard has been built until today. Improvements have been made in meeting basic targets such as access to the sewage system. On the other hand, forest areas in the country are decreasing annually. In the RS a new forest law has been adopted in 2008, replacing the old law from 2003. In FBiH, the old law on the forests from 2002 is still in force, often labeled as ineffective due to the large amount of complicated procedures and unclear definitions of forests and forestry. As of 2016, a preliminary draft of the new forest law has been established and put in the procedure at the Parliament of FBiH. BiH, furthermore, has a big potential when it comes to renewable energy. The FBiH has committed to the International community to increase the share of energy production from renewable resources from 34,5 to at least 40 percent in the total energy production by 2020, while RS is planning to invest around 11 billion KM into the energy sector by 2030 (FMERI, 2015). According to Assistant Prof. Dr. Sanela KlariÄ&#x2021;, Head of Department of Architecture at BURCH University and Director of the NGO Green Council, complicated legislative structure related to sustainable environmental development does not have to be a limiting factor. Political willingness, higher involvment of experts and civil society, good overall vision and adequate environmental strategies can create sustainable environmental development for BiH. Sustainable environmental development is not about protection of the environment by any means, it is about opportunites, creating jobs and general socioeconomic development while ensuring environmental care and protection (personal communication, 2016). Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development - If MDG 8 targets from the table are evaluated alone, it can be concluded that a significant improvement was made. All of the targets have been met and major improvements have been made. A new coordination system for development aid was established and the dependence of the country on Official Development Assistance (ODA) packages has been significantly reduced (In 2000 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 12 8

percent of GDP; in 2011- 2.3 percent) (UNDP, 2014). In 2014 the amount increased again, but mostly due to the devastating floods which occurred in the same year (Council of Ministers, 2016). Availability of information and communication technology increased significantly as three strategic documents were created and adopted by the Council of Ministers in 2004 (Policy, Strategy and Action plan for the development of the information society in BiH). Bosnia and Herzegovina is not a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO); it has the status of an observer to the organization since 1999. In the period from 2000-2015, nine negotiation sessions with the WTO have been held and it is expected that the negotiations are in the final stages (MFA, 2016). Despite the efforts, the inflow of FDI in the economy of BiH has been decreasing since the world economic crisis. According to S&P credit rating for BiH is B and according to Moody's it is B3 (Central Bank of BiH, 2016). This falls into the category of “highly speculative”. FDI investments in BiH in 2015 were only 19 percent of the FDI value in 2007 in BiH (before World economic crisis) and the GDP value in 2015 showed a negative growth rate compared to 2014 (FIPA, 2016). Goal 8 can be identified as fulfilled if the targets are evaluated, but regarding the FDI in BiH, no improvement is evident.

Development policies in BiH

It is evident from the previous chapter, that Bosnia and Herzegovina has had partial success in fulfillment of the MDGs targets. With regards to the availability of education and the promotion of gender equality, significant improvements have been made. When it comes to the MDGs, which were designed mostly for low income countries, BiH did not have major problems in keeping the present state and no impairment has occurred. On the other hand, the country showed a weak performance with regard to

“The goal of Development Strategy is to lead Bosnia and Herzegovina towards countries with high income, dynamic and competitive economy of the European Union, with sustainable economic growth, with more jobs, greater social inclusion for all, better infrastructure and better quality of environment” (Directorate for Economic Planning BiH, 2015).

sustainable economic development. This is no coincidence and it reveals serious general problems with post-war development policies in BiH, especially in regards to the economy, which would culminate in social unrests in February, 2014. The roots for such underperformance go much deeper and beyond basic data indicator trends.

The General Framework Agreement for Peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina marked the end of the war and the beginning of a long period of recovery and transition for the country. The new constitution was adopted as Annex IV of the agreement and the new era for the country was set to begin. One of the biggest changes was the “switch” to the free market economy3. This would prove to be one of the biggest challenges as well. Naturally BiH turned its development policies towards the EU and the EU‟s common market. Also looking at the period from 1995 (through Millennium Summit, Rio +5, +10, +15 and +20) until today, it is evident that BiH follows the path of EU integration. This includes all of the aspects of state governing, consequently supporting the positions of the EU during all of the negotiations in regards to the MDGs and SDGs. On the other side, public healthcare, social protection, pension and many more systems were inherited from the SFR Yugoslavia, thus creating a mixture of leftovers integrated into a free market system and run by free market mechanisms. Combined with an infrastructure that had been heavily destroyed during the war, numerous political crisis over the past years and the overall complicated legislative framework, the progress on the path towards EU accession has been slow. In order to demonstrate the problematic, as an example, a short summary of the economic development of BiH follows. In the period from the end of the war until today, according to the World Bank, the classification of the economy of BiH changed from lower middle income country to upper middle income country. From 1997 to 2000, Bosnia and Herzegovina was recovering from the war with large help of donations and loans from abroad, which had created a solid base for the full recovery and advancement toward EU. The institutions and policies were built parallel with GDP growth. In 1996 the unemployment fell from 90 percent to around 50 percent and continued to decline (World Bank, 1997). This was mostly due to the above mentioned reconstruction of the infrastructure. There was a high demand for jobs in order to implement large projects of rebuilding infrastructure. The growth rate in 1997 and 1998 was 29,9 percent and 28,9 percent falling to 9,5 percent in 1999 and 5,2 percent in 2000 (IMF 2013). Such strong growth could be interpreted as misleading, due to the very low base, since Bosnia and Herzegovina was recovering from the war. In such circumstances, GDP, GNI, unemployment rates and other indicators annually improved at a very high rate, slowing down later and showing the real state of the economy (Kreimer et al. 2000). In 1998 the law on Foreign direct investment was adopted (FIPA, 2016). After the period of rapid GDP growth, the growth

For more information on the economy of SFR Yugoslavia see Estrin, S. (1983): Self-Management: Economic Theory and Yugoslav Practice, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

settled down to the real terms and from 2000 to 2004 it was around 5, 5 percent. In 2003 and 2004, the unemployment rate had been still been extremely high at 40 percent (Central Bank 2004). But the real number of unemployed was around 20 percent according to some experts if the black market was calculated. This showed glimpses of the problems in the economy and from the year 2000 to the year 2004 the budget deficit was increasing with a high rate and in 2004 it was 23.3 per cent of the GDP (OENB 2010). This was the result of a trade deficit where the exports were around 1/3 of the imports. The countryâ&#x20AC;&#x;s production sector was weak. This was an alarming indicator pointing to the potential vulnerabilities in the economy of BiH. Nevertheless, the GDP continued to grow and the alarming data was not taken seriously by both domestic and foreign policy makers until 2008 when the global financial crisis was spreading from Western Europe to Bosnia, finally spilling over in the last quarter of 2008. All of the vulnerabilities became evident and up until today, the economy has still not fully bounced back. As parent banks in Western Europe were affected by the financial crisis, the foreign liabilities of the domestic commercial banks in Bosnia decreased by around 35 percent4. This meant that money was pulled back, creating a domino effect (Central Bank, 2016). In addition, the European bank for reconstruction and development (EBRD) also significantly lowered the amount of projects and investments since 2008. The period from 2008 to 2011 did not see any rise in the fiscal revenue of the Government of Bosnia and Herzegovina. In the combination with fiscal expenditures growth this lead to an increase of the total public debt to 43,0 percent of the GDP (in 2006 it was only 21,4 percent). As a measure to tackle the crises, the deposit run was made to the commercial banks to improve the liquidity. This meant that the Central Bank of BiH had lowered the amount of mandatory reserves held for the commercial banks. This was done in order to balance the lost deposits of commercial banks, due to the pull back from the parent banks. The negotiations with the IMF for the assistance package had also returned trust to some point for the deposit holders (commercial banks), and the signs of recovery were visible, but due to the problematic and complex political situation the package had been postponed resulting with the total amount of SDR5 340 million being withdrawn (IMF, 2012). These problems, combined with the rise of food prices on the international level, 4

Parent banks in Western Europe deposited the money to their daughter banks in BiH for crediting, because of the higher interest rate which their daughter banks in BiH could obtain. During the period of economic crisis, parent banks were losing money in their own countries and therefore needed to pull back the deposits made for the daughter banks in the foreign countries 5 Special Drawn Rights - The SDR is an international reserve asset, created by the IMF in 1969 to supplement its member countriesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; official reserves (IMF, 2016)

had pushed back the country into recession again in 2012 (World Bank, 2014). The new standby arrangement with the IMF in 2012 pulled the country out of the recession again but the structural problems still remained. The FDI values shrank substantially. The high costs of the public sector became more and more of a burden for the state; increase in the rates of unemployment, especially youth unemployment, corruption and many other factors fuelled social unrest and protests in February, 2014. Following February of 2014, the EU has changed its policy towards Bosnia and Herzegovina. The focus on the implementation of the SejdicFinci ruling has been put on hold while a new approach is primarily aimed towards strengthening the economy, administration and rule of law in Bosnia and Herzegovina. In 2015, the leaders of the 14 main political parties in Bosnia and Herzegovina have signed a commitment to the EU that they will support reform processes and work on implementation of plans set out in the Reform Agenda. Therefore, implementation of the Reform Agenda became the leading development policy in BiH for the period 2015-2018. From the short summary above it is evident why BiH had partial success with the MDGs. Development policies, especially in regards to economic policies were mostly based on short term planning, ignoring substantial flaws in the overall system. In the areas where BiH did not have to substantially alter legislation or change the present economic and social system, success was achieved. But when it comes to bigger issues, which require long term development policies, planning and systematic changes, no improvement was made with regards to the MDGs.

SDGs and the Reform Agenda: Synergies or Frictions?

The Sustainable Development Goals represent a policy framework built upon the former eight Millennium Development Goals. In general terms, the SDGs do not deviate from the broader policy areas for which the MDGs were formulated, but differentiate the goal framework significantly and focus it more on the root causes of development. The fact is that the success of the MDGs was uneven and around 700 million people still lived below the poverty line6 in 2015 (UN, 2015). Consequently, the SDGs (also known as Global Goals) are set to be more detailed and there are 17 SDGs identified.

Table 1: Sustainable Development Goals

To say the very least, this is an ambitious agenda. The wide range of goals consists of 169 targets. As such, the SDGs are subject to a lot of criticism. The MDGs had quantifiable and easily identifiable targets. This is not the case with the SDGs, where targets mostly start with “end” and “eliminate”. With 169 targets in 17 areas, appropriate quantifying and measuring of each target will not be an easy task. Some would even go as far to say that the SDGs are a “high school wish list” (FP, 2015). Not to mention that the biggest success of the MDGs cutting in half the number of people living under the absolute poverty line is mostly due to the rapid growth and development of China. It is estimated that for the fulfilment of the SDGs around 2-3 trillion US dollars annually will be required. This would constitute approximately 4 percent of world GDP per annum (The Economist, 2015). Others argue that all of the goals and targets are interconnected and that such vast number is needed in order for the SDGs to 6

According to WB, living below the poverty line is defined as living below $1,90 a day, since October, 2015. More Information: http://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/international-poverty-line-has-just-beenraised-190-day-global-poverty-basically-unchanged-how-even

succeed. An integrated approach is the key to future success of the SDGs. Both proponents and critiques of SDG policy hold certain valid concerns and points. According to the sustainable development expert and the former UNDP project manager in Croatia, Ivana Laginja, the ambitiousness of SDG policy shouldn‟t be a discouraging factor, but a motivation and a good ground for the improvement of the quality of life for the people all over the World (personal communication, 2016). But what do the SDGs mean for Bosnia and Herzegovina? Fifteen years for the implementation of the SGDs requires a long term development policy and a comprehensive plan. Compared to 15 years for the SDGs, the Reform Agenda is only a four year policy. Nevertheless the SDGs and the Reform Agenda do hold certain things in common. According to the Head of the EU Delegation and EU Special Representative, Ambassador Lars-Gunnar Wigemark, the Reform Agenda is a great opportunity for Bosnia and Herzegovina to „catch up with the rest of Europe and join the EU family“. A seven page document created by the European Union together with the IMF, World Bank and local political elites consists of a set of guidelines and measures which have to be implemented by governments in Bosnia and Herzegovina in order for the country to improve its socioeconomic status on the EU integration path. The document defines 6 main areas of importance to which reform plans are set out and which are to be implemented7. Like the SDGs, the plans set out in the Reform Agenda put astrong emphasis on sustainable development. The aim of the agenda is to stimulate sustainable and steady growth of the economy, to achieve reduction in social inequalities and better quality of life for people in BiH in general. All of the areas are closely interconnected and in order to contemplate the agenda, all of the 6 areas should be viewed in one causal relation system. The core idea is very simple: increase the public revenues, while reducing public costs and strengthening and improving the labour market. In order to achieve the overall goal, new laws will need to be passed and implemented. Concretely, the country will have to practice tighter budget control and reform the pension-, healthcare- and tax system as well as the public administration, while in parallel attracting new FDI. One could say that the first similarity between SDGs and the Reform Agenda is that both policies are very ambitious. According to Dr. Aziz Šunje, professor at the Faculty of Economics of the University of Sarajevo, the biggest challenges for BiH in the implementation of the RA are in 7

The six areas in the Reform Agenda are: Public Finance, Taxation and Fiscal Sustainability, The Business Climate and Competitiveness, The Labour Market, Social Welfare and Pension Reform, Rule of Law and Good Governance, Public Administration Reform

the field of social, pension and public administration reforms as well as in the strengthening of the rule of law and public finance (personal communication, 2016). For a better understanding of the impact that the RA will have on sustainable development of BiH, a simplified perspective can be outlined with regard to the ambivalence within the RA on sustainability and development. Increase in public revenues will mostly be based on the inflow of FDIs, tax consolidation and the privatization of public enterprises. This should lead to growth of the economy, but as seen in the previous chapter, plain economic growth does not by itself guarantee for sustainable economic growth. On the other hand, social, pension and public administration reforms, combined with the strengthening of the rule of law, should ensure sustainability of growth and tackle the systematic faults which were present in the economy of BiH in the last 20 years. Even under the assumption that that all of the plans from the RA will be fully implemented, possible deviations could occur compared to the SDGs. Kuznets curves graphically depict this risk.

. Graph 1: The Kuznets Curve and Environmental Kuznets Curve (PERC, 2002)

Pumping money into the economy will increase the GDP, but the distribution of the income might not affect the most vulnerable groups. As we can see from the curve, the rise in GDP could lead to the rise in income distribution inequality. According to the UNDP Human Development Report, Bosnia and Herzegovina already has one of the highest GINI8 indexes in the area of Western Balkans. Further inequalities in income distribution are a big challenge for most of the developing countries and special attention should be brought upon this issue. Only 0,06 percent of the population of BiH lives under the absolute poverty line (World Bank, 8

The Gini index is a measurement of the income distribution of a country's residents. It helps to define the gap between the rich and the poor. According to the UNDP Human Development Report, the GINI index for BiH in 2013 was 36.2 .

2016). However, these numbers are significantly higher if the relative, national poverty line calculation is included9. 17,9 percent of the population live under the national poverty line, which is a high number, considering the low national poverty line. Poverty is multidimensional and economic growth is the best tool in combating absolute poverty, but a sustainable economic growth is needed to reduce inequalities and the percentage of people living below the national poverty line. Income distribution inequalities may not be the only impact that the development could have with regards to Kuznets curve. The same goes for the sustainable environmental practices. Rapid economic development often leads to rapid environmental degradation, and it is questionable to which degree the institutions are in harmonization with EU and whether the country will be ready to handle the economic growth in terms of environmental protection. Unlike the SDGs, we believe that the RA does not emphasize sustainable environmental practices, but merely socioeconomic prosperity, and therefore, special attention should be brought upon these issues. Under this scenario, the RA will contribute to the overall framework policy of the SDGs especially with regards to the goals: Goal 1: No Poverty - End poverty in all its forms everywhere; Goal 2: Zero Hunger - End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture; Goal 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth - Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all; Goal 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels; Goal 17: Partnerships for the Goals - Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for sustainable development (United Nations, 2015). Goal 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure â&#x20AC;&#x201C; This goal is partially in line with the RA. Build resilient infrastructure and fostering innovation should be achieved, while the promotion of inclusive and sustainable industrialization is not in line, due to the absence of the environmental dimension from the RA, an inadequate present legal framework and the potential environmental risks possibly associated with economic development. But a much more troublesome scenario would be, if the RA ends up partially implemented and the coordination of implementation is not done well. The causal relationships between

Acccording to UNDP MDGs Progress report (2013) the national poverty line is at around 235 BAM.

numerous implementation measures from the agenda are very delicate and failure to implement only one of the measures properly could, figuratively speaking, lead to the breakdown of the house of cards. For better illustration we present a chart depicting only one aspect of the RA.

Graph 2: Simplified view on the RA policies

As we can see, in order to achieve the overall goal of an increase in the employment rates and the FDIs, a number of steps have to be taken before the rate of employment increases in a sustainable, long term manner. As the cost of labour will be lowered in order to stimulate employers to hire and attract FDIs, social contributions will be lowered. In order to lower the social contributions, the reforms of pension, welfare and healthcare systems will be done, together with public administration reform and all in the improved legislative framework and stronger rule of law to enforce and monitor these changes. If only one of the aspects required is not adequately reformed while the social contributions are being lowered, this could lead to the collapse of that system. As an example from October 2016, in the FBiH the maximum txfree amount for meal allowances was decreased from 2 percent to percent, while the social benefit contributions remained unchanged. A possible consequence of such action is that the employees will receive less money at the end of the month, because the employers have no incentives to increase the net salary. This will be the biggest problem for those employees with the lowest wages, therefore potentially creating more inequalities. On the other hand, if the healthcare system is not reformed and social contributions are lowered, less money will go to the present system and this could lead to its collapse. Also, if the rule of law is not strengthened, lowering social contributions will only lead to further underreporting of the 17

wages. At the time of the signing of the RA, more than 15 percent of the labour force was employed in the public sector. Accordingly the reform of the public administration, which holds the biggest potential to reduce to public expenditures, will have to be pursued with a lot of sensibility, monitoring other indicators. Such problematic scenarios are very limited and simplified for the purpose of this policy analysis and the outcomes and socioeconomic effects could be much broader. Up to October 2016, BiH has focused on the revisions and amendments of the existing laws and adoption of new laws in order to create a legislative framework for the implementation of the reforms. In the Third Consolidated Report on the Progress in the Implementation of the Action Plan for the RA from September, 2016, it is stated that the Council of Ministers has implemented around 53 percent, the Government of the Federation of BiH 31 percent and the Government of the RS around 54 percent of the total measures from the RA. Measures were mostly focused on the labour market, business competitiveness, strengthening of public finance and the rule of law. Different experts and civil servants agree that the biggest accomplishment in the implementation of the RA so far is the creation and adoption of the new labour laws in the Republika Srpska and the Federation of BiH (personal communication, 2016). It is important to note that the Federation of Independent Trade Unions of BiH questioned the sustainability and effectiveness of the new labour laws. In 2015, the FITU created a list of 26 contentious points in the new labour laws, which are believed to cause negative effects for the employees. According to the action plans for the implementation of the RA and with regards to healthcare reform, not a lot has been done. The analyses of the healthcare sector debt have not been made. Strategies for the reform of social welfare and pension system are planned for December of 2016. The reform of the healthcare sector will be one of the biggest challenges and it will be done together with the World Bank, projected to last for 5-7 years. The reform of public administration is in the early stages and likewise, the strategy for the Public Administration reform is planned to be done by 2017 (personal communication, 2016). According to the representatives of the EU delegation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the year 2017 will be crucial for the implementation of the Reform Agenda. All experts agree that the real effects of the RA are not going to be realized during the implementation phase, but probably in the following 2-3 years (personal communication, 2016).

The degree to which the RA implementation will be effectively coordinated will largely determine the performance of BiH with regards to the SDGs. In case of the failure in implementation of the policies, almost all of the SDGs are in jeopardy. On the other hand a fundamental reform will be necessary for BiH to achieve socio-economically sustainable development and the Reform Agenda is currently the only such fundamental reform agenda on offer in BiH. It should be noted that the RA as such is only relevant for economic sustainability and we believe that the SDG policies will be very important and useful for BiH, especially in the corrective aspect of the sustainability issues of RA (in the fields labelled as the biggest challenges) and in those areas which are not of operational concern for the RA. Therefore to conclude, that the Reform Agenda as the main current development policy is an adequate policy in the overall SDG framework, setting the grounds for the later period until 2030 and the success of the SDGs policy in BiH, in large depends on the success of the Reform Agenda. However, in order for the RA to be successful, well timed, coordinated and carefully planned implementation is required.

Are there obvious priority SDGs for Bosnia and Herzegovina?

According to the United Nations Development Group, the prioritization among the SDGs is the first key element in SDG implementation for any country. The prioritization is defined as identification of the SDGs which are of the most importance for the countries particular context, mapping their linkages and creating correlation with overall national goals (UNDG, 2015). A small graph from the UNDG report titled â&#x20AC;&#x153;Countrylevel needs for SDG implementation in Europe and Central Asiaâ&#x20AC;? gives an insight how to approach the first stage of SDG implementation. In order to identify priority SDGs for Bosnia and Herzegovina, several factors have to be taken into consideration, which have been analysed in the previous chapters. These include development strategies and policies, as well as consultations and interviews with the government representatives in BiH.

The overall goal of the Reform Agenda is to stimulate sustainable and steady growth of the economy, reduction in social inequalities and better quality of life for people in BiH on the path of Bosnia and Herzegovina towards EU accession. The Council of Ministers has identified accession to the European Union as a strategic priority of Bosnia and Herzegovina10. The Directorate of Economic Planning of BiH in the strategy for the period 2010-2020 identified that the main development strategy for Bosnia and Herzegovina is to progress towards the countries with high income and the European Union, with emphasis on the sustainable economic growth. Numerous strategies regarding environment in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and in the Republika Srpska emphasize the environmental sector as one of the high priorities in the EU and that as such, strategies in BiH regarding environmental policies should aim at the concept and philosophy of sustainable development11. The relative success of the Millennium Development Goals in Bosnia and Herzegovina was due to the socioeconomic practices which, however, were mostly based on a growth-trajectory that was not sustainable. BiH performed well in regards to the MDGs for which the fulfilment of the targets did not require major structural changes. In the areas of environment and economic sustainability BiH did not perform well. Having all of this in mind, it is evident that the current national, subnational and sectorial strategies for BiH are aimed at the sustainable development of BiH in order to achieve the overall goal of EU-accession. As the plans set out in the Reform Agenda represent the new approach towards EU for BiH and are created by the EU, IMF, World Bank and together with local political elites, it is clear that the priority development policies are in the areas of socioeconomically sustainable development. On the other hand, the MDGs as a tool for sustainable development in BiH proved incapable to tackle the more serious issues and challenges with regards to sustainable economic development. With so many development policies aimed at economic development, the focus of domestic implementation of SDGs policies should be primarily aimed at ensuring sustainability; and sustainability not only in an economic sense, but with further outreach and equal distribution among all the pillars of sustainability with an overall goal of improving the quality of life for all of the people in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Due to the higher complexity of SDG- compared to MDG-policies and the necessity for a carefully planned and integrated approach, it is very 10

Strategija Integriranja Bosne I Hercegovine U Evropsku Uniju (2006) Federalna Strategija ZaĹĄtite OkoliĹĄa, Federalna Strategija za Upravljanje Otpadom, Nacrt Strategije Upravljanja Otpadom u Republici Srpskoj, Strategija Zastite Prirode Republike Srpska itd. 11

important to take into account the cross-sector effects that pursuing of different targets within different SDGs, will have on each other. As an example presented in the paper, economic development can come with a high cost: environment and income equality can suffer due to “reckless” economic growth. This does not have to be the case with BiH. The importance of other goals and their pursuit will have other beneficiary effects on many other areas. Targets related to the goal of building sustainable cities and communities will help in disaster risk reduction. Also, better road infrastructure does not only improve economic accessibility and transport, but enhances social cohesion and integration by giving all citizens access to the same opportunities. Promotion of peace and culture within the goal of quality education will contribute to almost all of the other SDGs. Strong, peaceful and just institutions can best ensure same opportunities for all the people in BiH; they are a key factor in prevention and tackling of discrimination and create a base for healthy growth of the society etc. To summarize, the cross-sector effects that SDGs will have are potentially large and their careful analysis is crucial for the development of national and local SDG policies and strategies. Policy makers must take this into account when prioritising, as this is one of the most important attributes of the SDG policy framework. Having in mind some of the possible frictions between the plans set out in the RA and SDGs and the cross-sector effects that various targets within the SDGs might have, we have identified some plausible priority SDGs and targets for Bosnia and Herzegovina as following: Decent Work and Economic Growth Higher employment and sustainable economic growth are one of the priorities for BiH, both for the stability of the country and its future EU integrations path. Achievement of the set out future targets in this particular SDG will largely contribute to better quality of life for people of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Also, goals of “No Poverty” and “Zero Hunger” will be tackled trough the policies aimed at achieving SDG of Decent Work and Economic Growth. Targets

8.4 (Improve progressively, global resource efficiency in consumption and production and endeavour to decouple economic growth from environmental degradation, in accordance with the 10-year framework of programmes on sustainable consumption and production, with developed countries taking the lead), 8.5 (By 2030, achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all women and men, including for young people and persons with disabilities, and equal pay for work of equal value) and 8.6 (By 2020, substantially reduce the

proportion of youth not in employment, education or training) are particularly important for BiH. Sustainable Cities and Communities In order to achieve further urbanization of the country and disaster risk reduction, while ensuring sustainable environmental economic practices and the improvement of the quality of life for the people of BiH in overall, sustainable cities and communities are required. Targets

11.2 (access to safe, affordable, accessible and sustainable transport systems for all), 11.3 (enhance inclusive and sustainable urbanization and capacity for participatory, integrated and sustainable human settlement planning and management in all countries) and 11.5 ( By 2030, significantly reduce the number of deaths and the number of people affected and substantially decrease the direct economic losses caused by disasters, including water-related disasters, with a focus on protecting the poor and people in vulnerable situations) can be identified as the most relevant ones for the BiH. Most of these goals will be carried out through policies on the local level, so the importance of the inclusion of local governments and adequate strategies will be instrumental. There is a big opportunity for BiH to achieve the goals of sustainability trough local governments, because unlike the government at national level, local governments are often not the subject of political blockades, which provides a good base for easier and less time costly policy creation and implementation. Reduced Inequalities As identified in the previous chapters, an increasing gap between the rich and the poor could occur as a consequence of the implementation of the Reform Agenda plans. For a developing country transitioning to become a developed country, it is a very likely outcome under the current free market instruments. Therefore, SDGs policies should be aimed on helping BiH overcome this issue, with a special attention on the most vulnerable groups. Targets 10.1 (By 2030, progressively achieve and sustain income growth of the bottom 40 per cent of the population at a rate higher than the national average), 10.2 (By 2030, empower and promote the social, economic and political inclusion of all, irrespective of age, sex, disability, race, ethnicity, origin, religion or economic or other status) and 10.4 (Adopt policies, especially fiscal, wage and social protection policies, and progressively achieve greater equality) represent the relevant areas to which SDG policies should aim in BiH in order to mitigate the risks which economic policies can bring. 22

Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions No country can function properly without peace, stability, just legal system and strong institutions in law making and enforcement of the laws. The Reform Agenda plans will never be implemented without a strong legal framework to back them. Aside from the development policies, the outreach of Goal 16 has significant importance for the creation of a peaceful and inclusive society. As such, achieving targets from Goal 16 will be important in order to coordinate and bond together different goals and targets, in order to make sure that no one is left behind. Considering that BiH has one of the most complicated legal systems in the World and the necessity of strengthening of that system for sustainable development it is easy to understand why this goal is identified as a priority. Achieving targets 16.3 (Promote the rule of law at the national and international levels and ensure equal access to justice for all), 16.5 (Substantially reduce corruption and bribery in all their forms), 16.6 (Develop effective, accountable and transparent institutions at all levels), 16.7 (Ensure responsive, inclusive, participatory and representative decision-making at all levels) and 16.12 (Promote and enforce non-discriminatory laws and policies for sustainable development) is necessary for BiH in order to ensure an adequate overall legal framework in which monitoring, justice and sustainability is ensured. Furthermore, the importance of Goal 16 is not only restricted to the national context, but the supranational dimension of this goal is an opportunity to contribute to the achievement of global peace. For example, through target 16.11 (Strengthen relevant national institutions, including through international cooperation, for building capacity at all levels, in particular in developing countries, to prevent violence and combat terrorism and crime) a lot can be done in helping conflict-stricken countries as well as in the prevention of future conflicts around the World. Responsible Consumption and Production We have decided to include this particular goal as a priority because the environmental sustainability as an overall goal is divided into more SDGs. Prioritization of this goal serves as a further evidence of how an integrated approach is the key for success of SDG policies. While the reforms of the healthcare, welfare and pension systems aim at ensuring good health and well-being of the citizens of BiH in line with the SDG 3, further sustainable environmental policies are required for the Goal 12. Like with the inequalities, environmental degradation can occur as a consequence of development policies in BiH. In light of the fact 23

that for the EU environmental protection and sustainability are priorities, BiH put special focus on the achievement of the targets that will be set out in this Goal. Targets 12.2 (By 2030, achieve the sustainable management and efficient use of natural resources), 12.5 (By 2030, substantially reduce waste generation through prevention, reduction, recycling and reuse) and 12.6 (Encourage companies, especially large and transnational companies, to adopt sustainable practices and to integrate sustainability information into their reporting cycle) are the most relevant for BiH with regards to SDG 12. Quality Education Finally, to ensure quality education for all of the people in BiH is a precondition for any society to thrive forward and develop. In the context of the current policies and strategies, it will bring young people closer to the labour market, raise awareness regarding political, gender, environmental and many more issues12. Also, further work on MDG 2 through the inclusion and the improvement of the education availability for the most vulnerable groups is required. The importance of this goal is not only for the economic development of BiH, but for every aspect of society and will contribute to all other goals, as well as development of society of BiH as a whole. The most relevant targets for BiH regarding this goal are 4.4 (By 2030, substantially increase the number of youth and adults who have relevant skills, including technical and vocational skills, for employment, decent jobs and entrepreneurship),

4.6 (By 2030, ensure that all youth and a substantial proportion of adults, both men and women, achieve literacy and numeracy) and 4.7 (By 2030, ensure that all learners acquire the knowledge and skills needed to promote sustainable development, including, among others, through education for sustainable development and sustainable lifestyles, human rights, gender equality, promotion of a culture of peace and non-violence, global citizenship and appreciation of cultural diversity and of cultureâ&#x20AC;&#x;s contribution to sustainable development).

All of the goals were prioritized trough the context of current development strategies and policies of BiH and in the consideration that BiH is a higher middle income developing country; not diminishing the importance of any other goal.

Which practical steps have been taken to implement the SDGs in BiH so far?

The implementation of the SDG policies is in an early phase for all UN member states. In July of 2016 a team of independent experts of the SDSN Secretariat and the Bertelsmann Stiftung has prepared a global report tittled „SDG INDEX & DASHBOARDS“ with a purpose of assisting the countries in the starting phase of the implementation of SDGs and „calling on all nations to pursue a holistic strategy that combines economic development, social inclusion, and environmental sustainability“. For the purpose of the report, an indicator was created; the SDG Index, which measures the initial status of the country on 17 SDGs. According to the index, Bosnia and Herzegovina is ranked 73rd of a total of 149 countries with an index of 59.9. This is the lowest country index not only in the region of the Western Balkans, but in Europe. It means that BiH is on average 59.9 percent of the way to the best possible outcome across the 17 SDGs and that the country will have to do the most work regarding the implementation of the SDGs in the Europe. The United Nations have defined certain practical steps and measures for the stakeholders with a goal to successfully start the implementation of SDGs policies13. As the SDGs are defined broadly and affect many areas, they will apply to all key stakeholders. The key stakeholder groups relevant for the SDGs are generally identified as: -

National Governments

Sub-national Governments

Civil Society Organizations

Local Authorities

Businesses

Academic Institutions

Development Partners

According to the first guidelines, the first concrete step is to identify the appropriate targets for each goal. This means limiting the targets to 2-3 targets per goal and basing them on international standards which are applicable to a wide range of country settings. As the SDGs are a long term policy framework, they require long term strategies and planning, beyond the

Additional informaton on https://sdg.guide/

2015-2030 SDGs framework. The UN identifies backcasting14 as the best long term planning policy with regards to the SDGs. This requires cost planning and assessment, goal based partnerships and preparation for monitoring of the targets. UNDP is identified as the key partner in the implementation of the SDGs and the anchor for UNDG support for SDGs implementation (UNDP, 2016). The key in the SDG implementation process will be the integrated approach. According to the United Nations General report tittled „Critical milestones towards coherent, efficient and inclusive follow-up and review at the global level“ (2016) all of the goals are closely interconnected and therefore can not be split. All of the policymakers and stakeholders have a task of fulfilling all the goals (A/70/684, paragraph: 7). UNDP is authorized with leading the preparation of the Guidelines for National SDG Reports and up to date no reports have been published15. As of May 2016, the only government in the area of Western Balkans that has submitted a voluntary summary of SDGs national review was Montenegro (IISD, 2016). The UNDG report for the year 2015 reveals what has been done regarding the SDGs in Bosnia and Herzegovina from the stand point of the UN agencies and programs in BiH and what are the requirements for the future implementation. An UN SDG Taskforce in Bosnia and Herzegovina has been formed and mapping exercises with a goal of identification of the linkages between national development strategies and priorities and SDGs have been initiated. UN agencies in Bosnia and Herzegovina have requested guidance on prioritization adaptation and mainstreaming, review of targets and indicators, budgeting, data monitoring systems and resource mobilization. The report reveals that no national strategy for the SDGs currently exists in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The experiences with MDGs showed the importance of the national level strategies for such long term policy (non-adoption of 2008–2013 Development and Social Inclusion), so special attention should be brought upon this issue. The governments in BiH should prepare as soon as possible national and subnational strategies regarding the implementation of the SDGs. The establishment of a SDG roadmap, action plan and resource mobilization plans are being planned in order to identify relevant national strategies and policies. As there is no overall national SDGs strategy, regional support is needed and identified as the key in the successful implementation of SDGs. In such situation localization will not start before the nationalization in the SDGs context. UN offices in BiH are currently reviewing practices outlined in the 14

Backcasting - generating a desirable future, and then looking backwards from that future to the present in order to strategize and to plan how it could be achieved (UN SDSN) 15 UNDP Bosnia and Herzegovina website

MAPS reference guide and plans are made for the support strengthening the national statistical capacities as part of the United Nations Development Assistance Framework16. The UN offices in BiH are currently supporting governments in defining national reporting modalities, including timeline and contributions from stakeholders. The UNDP office in BiH is working on the prioritization of the SDGs through a series of interactive workshops titled “Imagine 2030”. The workshops are held in cities across Bosnia and Herzegovina and include the representatives of the state, entity and local level institutions and members of civil and academic society (personal communication, 2016). Also, the UNDP office in Bosnia and Herzegovina has prepared an analysis report regarding the Reform Agenda and SDGs tittled “Analysis of BiH Reform Agenda and links with One Programme/UNDAF and SDGs”. The report concludes that weak links are established with 8 out of 17 SDGs (1, 3, 4, 8, 9, 10, 16 and 17) and 19 out of 169 Targets.

The United Nations Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF) is a programme document between a government and the United Nations Country Team (UNCT) that describes the collective actions and strategies of the United Nations to the achievement of national development.

Conclusion

The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals can be viewed as a global development policy framework in which countries operate based on their own priorities and needs. As such 17 SDGs and the targets within create a global roadmap for the World in the period of 20152030. Zooming in from the global, to the perspective of Bosnia and Herzegovina, it is evident from the policy analysis that the main strategic priority is to become a member of the European Union. In the â&#x20AC;&#x153;SDG Index and Dashboardsâ&#x20AC;? report, the same one in which Bosnia and Herzegovina is ranked as the country with lowest SDG index in Europe, all of the top 10 countries with the highest SDG index are members of EEA and 9/10 countries are members of the European Union. This points to the prevalence of good sustainable development policies and practices in the EU. While the current development policies on the path of EU integration for BiH are primarily focused on sustainable economic development, there is a strong need for sustainability in other aspects of state governing and everyday life. The path of the implementation of the RA is only in part, the path of the fulfillment of the SDG targets for BiH. A lot of hard work, especially in those areas which are not explicitly mentioned in the RA lay ahead for BiH on the path of the fulfillment of SDGs. Past experiences with the MDGs have shown, that in order to achieve progress with such long term policies, national level strategies and plans are required, where national institutions will have capabilities for the implementation of such policies. This does not only relate to securing financial funds from the budget, but ensuring good project management, for which domestic resources are required. Targets from the MDGs were not met in the areas where systematic changes were required, especially when it comes to the area of socioeconomic policies. The RA is an ambitious and daring endeavor, aiming to tackle these issues and their core problematic, but adequate coordination and carefully planned implementation is required. One of the main concerns is that the most vulnerable groups of citizens might be left behind, deepening the inequalities. There is a strong need for adequate national and subnational strategies aimed towards the implementation of SDG policies. While the progress and the decision making process on the national and entity levels are often slow, especially during the years in which elections are held, local governments and cities have particular potential to be carriers for the successful implementation of SDG policies even in those areas where the national and entity levels fail to do so. The task of the UN agencies in BiH and primarily UNDP should be to focus on the implementation of the integrated activities mostly on the 28

local level, especially in the spheres where the country, due to the limited capacities cannot act alone. This is especially important for the SDG 11, where local governments will be the carriers in the sustainable urbanization of the country. It is important to note that the State, UN agencies and the civil society should work on higher promotion of the SDGs policies and raise awareness among the citizens of BiH. It is vital that the people of BiH understand and recognize the importance of the SDGs. Inclusion of society in formal prioritization of SDGs is the most important aspect in understanding of the priority SDGs for BiH. People of BiH need to understand and know that the country has committed iself to the fulfillment of the SDGs and that the SDGs as a global policy framework are aimed at improvement of their quality of life. SDGs are not a project for the elite, but the civil society should be working on the implementation as well through the local communities and dialogue with the governments. The targets from the SDGs are not the only indicator of the success of the SDGs, but the people of BiH should turn the SDGs into an advocacy tool for progress through monitoring and dialogue. Finally, it shouldn‟t be forgotten that the SDGs are a global policy framework. The contribution of BiH should not only be on the national, but also on the global level. This multinational dimension is the most identifiable with regards to SDG 16. Partnerships such as the “Global Alliance for Progress Reporting on Promoting Peaceful, Just and Inclusive Societies” have already been formed in order to implement the peace dimension of the SDGs globally. Inclusion in such partnerships will be beneficiary for data exchange, dialogues and building of partnerships and it will have positive effect on both national and global targets. Prioritization within the 17 goals is a crucial starting phase and it is of highest importance to identify the adequate SDGs to which all national and international development actors should mainly focus in their activities and support. This prioritization still has to be done in BiH under inclusion of a variety of political and civil society stakeholders. As a starting point for such a debate, this policy analysis paper suggests the goals of Decent Work and Economic Growth, Sustainable Cities and Communities, Reduced Inequalities, Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions, Responsible Consumption and Production, Quality Education as the current priority Sustainable Development Goals for BiH. The success of the RA and the policies to follow in the next 15 years will partially determine the success of the SDGs. SDGs will not only serve as a good indicator to which degree the development policies will be successful, but they will hopefully ensure sustainable 29

development and that “no one is left behind”. Both the short term policies and SDGs as a long term policy framework should mutually support each other and be in cohesion. This means that all of the UN agencies in BiH, State, Entity and Local level governments, as well as the representatives of civil society should cooperate and coordinate the implementation of SDG policies. Only in this way an integrated approach to the SDG policy is possible, which will be key to its future success. The UN recommends the backasting17 technique in creation of the SDG implementation policies. For Bosnia and Herzegovina, the desirable future is quite straightforward and becoming a member of the EU is part of it. The country is at the crossroads, where in the next 15 years most of the socioeconomic reforms will need to be done. As it can be seen in the policy analysis, the development and socio-economic growth in BiH so far was not sustainable. The Reform Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals – if taken seriously – provide a decent framework for a shift of BiHs development path towards a more sustainable trajectory. Adequate implementation of the RA is the first step, with other policies to follow that path. Special focus should be put on the protection of the most vulnerable groups, environmental protection and proper reforms of the public administration, healthcare and pension systems. No transition is easy and a lot of hard work lies ahead for Bosnia and Herzegovina. Sustainable Development Goals should serve as a good overall framework in which the present and future short term sustainable development policies need to be adequately implemented.

Ibid., p. 22

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List of Tables and Charts Graph 1: The Kuznets Curve and Environmental Kuznets Curve. p.15 Graph 2: Simplified view on the RA policies. p.17 Graph 3: Preparation/Pre-Consultation Phase p.19 Table 1: Sustainable Development Goals. p.13 Appendix Table 2: Overview of the indicators for the Millenium Development Goals in Bosnia and Herzegovina. p.36-37

APPENDIX

Table 2: Overview of the indicators for the Millenium Development Goals in Bosnia and Herzegovina (UNDP, 2014)