2011
Quarter Quarter
2014
second JANUARY second
VIRGINIA VIRGINIA Home HomeSAleS SAleSRepoRt RepoRt
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
速 速 Published by by Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate for for Published Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate realreal estate professionals andand property owners in Virginia. estate professionals property owners in Virginia.
Virginia Monthly Home Sales Report
January 2014
Virginia's Monthly Pace of Residential Sales Single Family, Townhomes, Condos
12,000
10,482
10,804 10,382
10,151
10,000 8,667 8,184 Number of Residential Sales
8,000 7,267
7,517 6,931
6,842 6,000
7,932
7,460
7,400
5,528
5,922
-5.91%
5,201
4,000
2,000
0
Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-14 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep- 13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 (p) (p) (p) (p) (p) (p) (p) (p) (p) (p) (p) (p)
(p) indicates that this month’s numbers are preliminary. The numbers may change slightly as more data is reported.
The pace of Virginia home sales declined in January, after an increase in sales in December. Sales are down 5.91% from January 2013. This year-over-year decrease is so small that it may be reversed as additional January sales are reported over the next few months. In general, Virginia continued to move through the slow season in January. Based on previous years, the pace of sales should increase in February and we will leave the slow winter season in March.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 2
Virginia Monthly Home Sales Report
January 2014
Virginia Median Residential Sales Price Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
$200,000
$229,900
$250,000
$245,000
$250,000
$250,000
$265,000
$274,900
$268,000
$250,000
$241,350
$230,000
$225,000
$242,350
$248,000
$235,000
$240,000
$248,000
$257,241
$258,000
$250,000
$239,000
$225,000
$210,900
$205,000
$250,000
$225,000
Median Sales Price
$300,000
$285,000
$350,000
+2.18% +12.1%
$150,000
(p) indicates that this month’s numbers are preliminary. The numbers may change slightly as more data is reported.
The median sales price decreased from December to January. The median sales price in January 2014 ($229,900) is 1.6% more than January 2013 ($225,000), but 12.1% higher than January of 2012 ($205,000). Overall, prices remain stable and are following the typical seasonal trajectory.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 3
Virginia Monthly Home Sales Report
January 2014
Virginia Monthly Residential Sales Volume ($M) Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
4,000 3,717 3,482
3,500
3,461 3,287
Millions of Dollars of Residential Sales
3,000 2,712 2,550 2,500 2,087
2,452
2,374
2,275
2,269 2,090
2,088
2,000 1,684 1,500
1,539
-2.7% 1,498
1,000
500
0
Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 (p) (p) (p) (p) (p) (p) (p) (p) (p) (p) (p) (p)
(p) indicates that this month’s numbers are preliminary. The numbers may change slightly as more data is reported.
Sales volume was 2.7% lower this January than last January. Again, this year-over-year decline is so small that it may be reversed as additional sales are reported over the next few months. Both prices and sales declined from December to January, resulting in a significant decrease in volume in January.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 4
Virginia Monthly Home Sales Report
January 2014
Virginia Average Days On Market Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
120 106 100
101
103 102 91
Average Days On Market
84 80
88 80
81
83
90
87
90
93
95 90
86 78
77
73
-12%
66
69
78
81
82
72
60
-3%
40
20
0
(p) indicates that this month’s numbers are preliminary. The numbers may change slightly as more data is reported.
Days on the market continued to rise in January, reaching what will likely be the height of the winter season. Virginia experienced a 3% decline in this metric over the past year. Homes are selling at a typical rate for January in Virginia, but we expect to see homes sell faster over the next few months especially until builders are free from winter weather events and inventory begins to increase.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 5
Virginia Monthly Home Sales Report
January 2014
Virginia Unemployment Rate
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
5.2%
5.4%
5.6%
5.6%
5.8%
5.7%
5.5%
5.3%
5.2%
5.3%
5.6%
5.6%
5.6%
5.7%
5.8%
5.9%
5.9%
6.0%
6.0%
5.9%
5.9%
5.9%
5.9%
6.0%
9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4%
6.2%
Source: Bureau of Labor & Statistics
Dec-13
(p) indicates that this month’s numbers are preliminary. The rate is subject possible change and finalization by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Virginia’s unemployment rate continued to fall throughout the end of 2013. Decreased unemployment will boost buyer confidence as we head into the spring season. We could see an especially strong spring market if this unemployment trend continues along with stable interest rates.
Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac
4.6% 4.4%
4.37%
4.46%
4.49%
4.2%
4.19%
4.07%
4.0%
4.46%
4.43%
Dec-13
Jan-14
4.26%
3.8% 3.6% 3.4%
3.41%
3.53%
3.57%
Feb-13
Mar-13
3.45%
3.54%
3.2% 3.0%
Jan-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Average 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates decreased 0.03 percentage points in January, which will likely encourage sales as we approach spring. However, the slow season may linger throughout February, so interest rates will need to remain steady to show a significant effect on sales.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 6
Virginia Monthly Home Sales Report
January 2014
The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the business advocate for real estate professionals in Virginia. VAR represents more than 28,000 REALTORS® active in all phases of real estate brokerage, management, development and appraisal. Our mission is to enhance our membership’s ability to achieve business success. All inquiries regarding this report should be directed to: Stacey Ricks, Chief of Marketing and Communications Virginia Association of REALTORS® 10231 Telegraph Road, Glen Allen, VA 23059 (804) 249-5716 Stacey@VARealtor.com www.VARealtor.com/HomeSales Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by RE Stats Inc. All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 7