First Quarter 2010
Trends in Virginia’s Housing Markets
For Immediate Release: April 30, 2010 Contact: Lisa Noon, (804) 249-5716 or lisa@varealtor.com Led by low interest rate and first-time buyers, Virginia’s housing markets continue to show steady growth, according to the first quarter 2010 home sales report released today by the Virginia Association of Realtors. “It’s evident that the tax credit did its job in encouraging on-the-fence buyers to get into the market before the cutoff,” commented VAR President Cindy Stackhouse of Woodbridge, VA. Today, April 30, marks the last day to enter into a contract for the tax credit. "This is a buyers’ market, and there couldn’t be better incentives for prospective home buyers to make the move,” she added. “With the low rates we’re experiencing, plus a great selection at excellent prices, buying a home now offers huge advantages.” “Sellers need to be patient, price their homes correctly, work with a professional who can market and showcase your home at its best, and be flexible,” Stackhouse added. Most areas of the Commonwealth showed increases in sales in the first quarter over last year. The areas that led the state in closed sales include the Northern Virginia and Tidewater regions. The highest percentage increase was seen in the Upper Shenandoah Valley region with a 14.8 percent increase over the last year. Also for the first quarter, median sales prices advanced 8.9 percent statewide compared to the same period last year. The Northern Virginia region showed the greatest increase (19.2 percent) in median sales price for the quarter compared to the same time last year. # # #
Highlights
Compared to this time last year, six of Virginia’s seven regions posted sales increases. The highest annual percentage increase in sales occurred in the Upper Shenandoah Valley region which had a 14.8 percent increase in sales compared to 1Q 09. Overall though, the first quarter’s total existing home sales in Virginia declined by 33.8 percent vs. 4Q 09 but by only 1.1 percent compared to 1Q 09.
The statewide median sales price advanced $19,558 from the median in the first quarter of 2009 (+8.9 percent) to $240,470. Compared to 1Q 09, the Northern Virginia region had the highest percentage increase in its median sales price, it was up 19.2 percent to $305,174.
Following three consecutive quarterly increases, the statewide median sales price decreased slightly (-1.5 percent) compared to the fourth quarter of 2009. However, median sales prices increased in two of the seven regions since last quarter. Increases amounted to 6.8 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2009 in the Central region and 4.7 percent in the Southwest region.
The number of foreclosures in Virginia decreased 2.4 percent from the first quarter of 2009 to the first quarter of 2010. An especially good sign was the number of foreclosures in the Northern Virginia region. They declined for the second consecutive quarter (-4.6 percent) and were down 21.5 percent vs. 1Q 09. Foreclosures did spike in the South Central region compared to last quarter (+43.3 percent).
While the quarter ended with a net loss of 42,200 jobs so far this year, jobs were actually added to Virginia’s payrolls in March. The largest percentage increase in new jobs was in the Federal Government sector (+4.5 percent) and the largest percentage loss was in the Construction sector (-8.6 percent). Unemployment, at 7.4 percent, was the lowest among Virginia’s neighbors in March and compares favorably to the national rate of 9.7 percent. In national news, the $8,000 First Time Buyer’s Credit program contributed to March’s 7 percent surge in existing home sales and the general trend is a stabilization of median sales prices. Inventory has trended down for 20 consecutive months. Monthly mortgage rates started the quarter at 5.03 percent and declined to 4.97 percent by the end of March.
Page 2
Trends in Virginia’s Housing Markets
Virginia Annual Job Change
The quarter began with job losses in January and to a lesser extent in February but by March, the Commonwealth was adding jobs. At the end of the first quarter, job losses so far this year totaled –42,200.
The largest gain (as of March 2010 compared to March 2009) was in the Education and Health Service sector (+15,200 jobs) while the largest declines were in the Manufacturing and Mining/Logging sectors(-15,800 jobs each). The highest percentage increase compared to last March was in the Federal Government sector (+4.5 percent). The largest percentage decline was in the Construction sector (-8.6 percent)
Month-over-the-Month (000s)
60.0
48.0
40.0
Virginia’s percentage decline in jobs since March 2009 was 1.4 percent.
This decline compares to
+1.6 percent in DC;
20.0
-.9 percent in Maryland; 0.0 Jan
Feb
-1.5 percent in North
Mar
Carolina
-20.0
-1.9 percent in Tennessee; and
-29.8
-40.0
–1.9 percent in West Virginia.
-60.0 -60.4 Source; BLS, NSA
-80.0
Unemployment Rate (VA and USA) The unemployment rate in the Commonwealth was 1.0 percentage point higher in March 2010 compared to March 2009; essentially the same as the increase across the nation over the same time period (1.1 percent). Virginia’s March 2010 unemployment rate was tied for the fourteenth lowest in the country with Minnesota.
The highest statewide unemployment rate was again in Michigan (14.1 percent). The lowest was in North Dakota (4.0 percent), a typical result.
Unemployment Rate (March of Each Year)
12.0
Source: BLS, SA
VA
11.0
USA
10.0
9.7
8.0
7.4
7.0 5.7
6.0 5.0
4.3
4.2
5.9 4.2
4.0 3.0
8.6
9.0
6.4 5.6
3.8
5.2
4.7
5.1 4.4
3.6
2.6
3.4
2.9
2.8
2006
2007
2.0 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2008
2009
2010
Virginia continues to have the lowest unemployment rate among its neighbors— MD = 7.7 percent; WV = 7.4 percent; TN = 10.6 percent; NC = 11.1 percent; and DC = 11.6 percent. As of February 2010, the Danville MSA again had the highest unemployment rate in the state (12.9 percent) and Northern Virginia had the lowest (5.8 percent).
Page 3
Trends in Virginia’s Housing Markets
Virginia Quarterly Sales and Median Sales Prices: 2Q 2008—1Q 2010 27,500 $268,303
$250,000
$244,108
20,000
$240,470
$240,000
$233,491
$232,335
17,500 $224,500
$230,000
$220,912
15,000
$220,000
12,500 10,000
$270,000 $260,000
$254,177
22,500
Total Sales
MSP
$280,000
Median Sales Price
25,000
Sales
$210,000 24,779
25,281
18,577
15,996
18,884
22,246
23,904
15,813
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
$200,000
Region Definitions Central Region
South Central Region
Chesterfield, Hanover, Henrico, and the city of Richmond (Richmond Association ) Caroline, Charles City, Dinwiddie, Goochland, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Powhatan, Prince George, and cities of Colonial Heights, Hopewell and Petersburg
Amherst, Appomatox, Bedford and Campbell counties, cities of Bedford and Lynchburg (Lynchburg Association of REALTORS) Danville and Pittsylvania counties (Dan River Region Association of REALTORS)
(Southside Virginia Association of REALTORS)
Halifax and Mecklenburg counties (Southern Piedmont Land and Lake Board)
Lancaster, Northumberland, Richmond and Westmoreland counties (Northern Neck
Amelia, Appomatox, Buckingham, Brunswick, Charlotte, Cumberland, Fluvanna, Halifax, Lunenberg, Mecklenburg, Prince Edward, Nelson, Nottoway, and Powhatan counties (South Central Association of REALTORS)
Association of REALTORS) Essex, Gloucester, King & Queen, King William, Lancaster, M athews, M iddlesex, and Northumberland counties (Chesapeake Bay & Rivers Association of REALTORS)
Henry and Patrick counties and city of Martinsville (Martinsville, Henry & Patrick Counties Association of REALTORS )
North Central Region
Southwest Region
City of Charlottesville and counties of Albemarle, Greene, Louisa, Nelson and Fluvanna
Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Smyth, Washington and Wise counties (Southwest Virginia Association of REALTORS) Lee, Scott, Washington and Wise counties (Bristol TN-VA Association of REALTORS)
(Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS ) Augusta County and cities of Highland, Waynesboro and Staunton (Greater Augusta Association of REALTORS) Bath, Buchanan and Rockbridge counties and cities of Buena Vista, Clifton Forge, Covington and Lexington (Lexington/Buena Vista/Rockbridge Association of REALTORS)
Northern Virginia Region Fairfax, Arlington counties and cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church (Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS) Loudoun County (Dulles Area Association of REALTORS)
Allegheny, Bedford, Botetourt, Craig, Franklin, Roanoke, Southampton counties and cities of Franklin, Salem and Roanoke (Roanoke Valley Association of REALTORS) Bland, Carroll, Floyd, Giles, Grayson, Montgomery, Pulaski, Tazewell and Wythe counties and cities of Galax and Radford (New River Valley Association)
Tidewater Region Isle of Wight, Suffolk, York counties and cities of Chesapeake, Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk, Poquoson, and Virginia Beach (Hampton Roads REALTORS Association)
Association of REALTORS )
James City and New Kent counties and cities of Williamsburg and Charles City (Williamsburg Area Association of REALTORS) Accomack and Northampton counties (Eastern Shore Association of REALTORS)
Stafford, Spotsylvania, King George and Caroline counties and city of Fredericksburg
Upper Shenandoah Valley Region
(Fredericksburg Area Association of REALTORS)
Clarke, Frederick, Warren counties and city of Winchester (Blue Ridge Association)
Fauquier, Culpeper, Orange, M adison, Scott and Rappahannock counties (Greater
Page and Shenandoah counties (Massanutten Association of REALTORS)
Piedmont Association of REALTORS)
Rockingham County and city of Harrisonburg (Harrisonburg/Rockingham Association)
Prince William County and cities of M anassas and M anassas Park (Prince William
Page 4
Fourth Quarter 2009
Foreclosures in Virginia and by Region
The total number of foreclosures increased in Virginia from 14,668 last quarter to 15,563 in the first quarter of 2010 (+6.1 percent). That followed a 19.1 percent decrease from the third to the fourth quarter.
An interesting phenomenon surfaced in the fourth quarter of 2009. Northern Virginia has historically preceded other regions in the Commonwealth with regard to foreclosure activity. Again in the first quarter of 2010, Northern Virginia’s foreclosures declined compared to the previous quarter (-4.5 percent). While it still led the state with the highest number of foreclosures by a large margin, it actually posted the only percentage decrease this quarter.
Quarter Totals Region
1Q10
Central North Central Northern Virginia South Central Southwest Tidewater Upper Shenandoah Valley Total Others Virginia Total
2,699 267 7,220 397 562 3,618 781 15,544 19 15,563
2Q10
3Q10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
The North Central region posted the lowest percentage quarterly increase in foreclosures last quarter (+.8 percent) compared to 4Q 09.
For the second consecutive quarter, the number of total foreclosures increased in the South Central region, posting the highest percentage increase in the state (+43.3 percent).
Foreclosures in the Southwest region had the second highest percentage increase during the first quarter, +20.9 percent.
4Q10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Source: RealtyTrac
Note: “Others” denotes counties outside the VAR reporting area. Overall, the number of foreclosures in these areas dropped from 21 to 19 in the first quarter of 2010 for a 9.5 percent decline.
1Q 10 Sales by Region Region
1Q 10
vs. 4Q 09
vs. 1Q 09
Central North Central Northern Virginia
2,067 656 7,064
-30.4% -34.5% -22.4%
7.0% 12.9% -10.7%
South Central Southwest Virginia Tidewater Upper Shenandoah Valley
656 1,132 3,610 628
-23.5% -29.3% -36.1% -28.6%
5.3% 5.5% 8.4% 14.8%
1Q 10 Median Sales Prices by Region Region
1Q 10
vs. 4Q 09
vs. 1Q 09
Central North Central
$209,016 $210,526
6.8% -8.1%
6.5% -16.3%
Northern Virginia South Central Southwest Virginia Tidewater Upper Shenandoah Valley
$305,174 $118,706 $141,524 $206,957 $158,516
-0.8% -0.5% 4.7% -2.8% -5.9%
19.2% -3.6% 6.4% -3.9% -6.6%
Trends in Virginia’s Housing Markets
Page 5
Central Region
During the first quarter of 2010, total sales in the Central region declined 30.4 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2009 but improved 7.0 percent compared to the first quarter of 2009.
Following two consecutive quarters of declines, the median sales price in the Central region increased 6.8 percent in the first quarter of 2010 compared to last quarter. The percentage gain was 6.5 percent compared to 1Q 09.
$245,000
4,000 Sales $233,816
3,500
MSP
$235,000
$225,832
3,000
$212,198 $209,016 $204,257
2,500
$196,279
$215,000 $205,000
$199,075
$195,704
$195,000
Median Sales Price
Total Sales
$225,000
2,000
$185,000 1,500
3,546
3,341
2,157
1,931
3,106
3,400
2,968
2,067
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
$175,000
North Central Region
Perhaps due to the bad weather during the first quarter, sales in the North Central region declined by 34.5 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2009 but showed a 12.9 percent improvement over the first quarter of 2009.
The median sales price declined for the third consecutive month to the lowest point in at least two years (-8.1 percent). There was also a steep decline compared to the same time last year (-16.3 percent). $257,002
$260,000 $252,874
1,200
$251,524
Sales
$253,512 $250,477
MSP
$250,000
$246,912
1,100
$229,105
Note: MSP excludes Greater Augusta Area 3Q 08-4Q 09
Total Sales
1,000
$240,000
900 $230,000
800 700
$220,000
600
$210,526
$210,000
500 400
1,012
1,231
797
581
911
1,176
1,001
656
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
$200,000
Median Sales Price
1,300
Page 6
Fourth Quarter 2009
Northern Virginia Region
In the Northern Virginia region, total sales declined 22.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2009 to 7,064 units and declined 10.7 percent from the first quarter of 2009. Sales rose dramatically in the second quarter of 2009 (up 39.6 percent from the first quarter) but declined in every quarter since then.
Median sales prices declined slightly in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter of 2009 (-.8 percent) but had a 19.2 percent increase compared to the same quarter last year. $400,000
12,000 Sales MSP
11,000 $342,636
$307,812
$301,182
$305,174
Total Sales
$321,833
$300,000
$307,680
9,000 $270,301
$250,000 $255,965
8,000
$200,000 7,000 $150,000
6,000 5,000
Median Sales Price
10,000
$350,000
10,518
11,457
9,281
7,912
11,045
10,768
9,103
7,064
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
$100,000
South Central Region
The South Central region saw sales decline in the first quarter by 23.5 percent from fourth quarter 2009 totals. However, total sales improved over the first quarter of 2009 total by 5.3 percent.
After a sharp decline in the fourth quarter, median sales prices fell .5 percent in the first quarter of 2009. The decline compared to the first quarter of 2009 was 3.6 percent. $140,000
1,200 Sales $130,664
$132,994
$134,995
$135,000
MSP
$130,000
1,000
$125,317
Total Sales
$123,164
$125,000 $119,248
900 $115,348
$118,706
$120,000
800 $115,000 700
$110,000
600 500
$105,000 1,155
1,068
749
623
909
1,014
857
656
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
$100,000
Median Sales Price
1,100
Page 7
Trends in Virginia’s Housing Markets
Southwest Virginia Region
Total sales declined in the Southwest region during the first quarter of 2010 by a steep 29.3 percent from the last quarter of 2009 but posted a higher total compared to the first quarter of 2009 (+5.5 percent).
Median sales prices increased following two quarterly declines. The increases amounted to 4.7 percent vs. 4Q 09 and 6.4 percent vs. 1Q 09.
$170,000
2,100 Sales
$162,116
$165,000
MSP
1,900
$160,000
$157,313
1,700
Total Sales
$155,000 $150,000
1,500 $145,361
$145,199 $141,524
1,300
$140,000
$135,225
$133,062
$145,000
Median Sales Price
$163,519
1,100 $135,000 900
1,945
1,717
953
1,073
1,793
1,983
1,600
1,132
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
$130,000
Tidewater Region
Sales declined sharply in the Tidewater region during the first quarter of 2010. Compared to the last quarter, the decline measured 36.1 percent but the region posted an 8.4 percent gain compared to the first quarter of 2009.
Median sales prices declined for the second consecutive month, -2.8 percent vs. 4Q 09 and –3.9 percent vs. 1Q 09.
6,500
$245,000 $240,669
6,000
Sales
$240,000
MSP
$235,617
$225,102
Total Sales
5,000
$230,000 $225,542
$225,000
$221,059
4,500
$220,000
$216,804
4,000
$213,025
$215,000
3,500 $206,957
3,000 2,500
$210,000 $205,000
5,787
5,596
3,961
3,327
5,342
5,941
5,653
3,610
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
$200,000
Median Sales Price
$235,000
5,500
Page 8
Fourth Quarter 2009
Upper Shenandoah Valley Region
Total sales declined sharply in the Upper Shenandoah Valley region during the first quarter (-28.6 percent) following two relatively stable quarters. However, total sales increased 14.8 percent since the first quarter of 2009.
The median sales price declined for the third consecutive quarter (-5.9 percent vs. 4Q 09 and –6.5 percent vs. 1Q 09 to its lowest point in at least two years.
1,000
$220,000 Sales
$211,322
900
MSP
$199,088
$210,000
Total Sales
$190,000 $182,275
700
$169,785
600
$170,600
$180,000
$174,489 $168,405 $158,516
500
400
$170,000
Median Sales Price
$200,000 800
$160,000 816
871
679
547
798
886
880
628
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
$150,000
Statewide Economic Backdrop
Virginia’s construction starts are included in the Census Bureau’s “South Region” and the annualized total advanced 9.1 percent compared to last quarter and was an impressive 23 percent ahead of first quarter figures in 2009—even with an especially harsh winter in the Commonwealth.
The total number of building permits issued in Virginia from January and February 2010 was 2,521 permits, 11.3 percent fewer than at the same time in 2009 and 12.9 percent below the total in the first two months of 2009.
Virginia Economic Indicators
1Q10
vs. 4Q09
vs. 1Q09
1
337
9.1%
23.0%
2
2,521
-12.9%
-11.3%
15,563 -42.2
6.1% -1.2%
-2.4% -1.4%
7.4
8.8%
15.6%
Starts (South Region) YTD Building Permits Foreclosures
Non-Farm Employment
3
4
Unemployment Rate 1
Foreclosures increased 6.1 percent in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter of 2010. However, the 15,563 foreclosures total for the quarter was 2.4 percent less than the total this time last year.
Over 42,000 jobs were lost from Virginia’s 2009 payrolls in the first quarter, down 1.2 percent from the last quarter and also down 1.4 percent from the first quarter of 2009.
Unemployment in the state rose in March resulting in an 8.8 percent increase quarterover-quarter. Compared to the rate at this time last year of 6.4 percent, the increase was 15.6 percent quarter-over-year.
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (000s); 3rd Month of Quarter
2
As of 2nd Month of Quarter
3
Not Seasonally Adjusted (000s); 3rd Month of Quarter
4
3rd Month of Quarter
Page 9
Trends in Virginia’s Housing Markets
National Economic Backdrop
While existing home sales increased almost 7 percent in March, existing home sales decreased 16.9 percent for the entire first quarter of 2010 compared to the fourth quarter of 2009. This is typical of the cyclical nature of the existing home market. Compared to the same time last year though, sales increased 17.6 percent. The median sales price increased slightly compared to last quarter (+.1 percent) and compared to the first quarter of 2009 (+.5 percent). The 8.0 months of supply in March was 11.1 percent higher than the fourth quarter of 2009 but a noteworthy 67 percent below the inventory level last year.
National Economic Indicators Starts
1Q10
vs. 4Q09
vs. 1Q09
626
9.2%
20.2%
685
5.0%
34.0%
5,350 $170,700 8.0
-16.9% 0.1% 11.1%
17.6% 0.5% -67.0%
411 $214,000 6.7
16.4% -3.3% -15.2%
22.7% 5.9% -40.2%
932,234 162
-6.0% 0.1%
16.0% -1.8%
9.7%
-3.0%
38.9%
52.5 26.0 70.2 4.97%
-2.1% 28.7% -7.5% 0.8%
101.9% 20.9% 142.9% -0.6%
4Q09 5.6%
3Q09 2.2%
1Q09 -6.4%
1
Building Permits
1
New home sales totals increased 16.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2009 and almost 23 percent compared to the first quarter of 2009. Median sales prices declined from the last quarter of 2009 but rose about 6 percent over the this time last year. Reaching the lowest level in over two years, the new homes inventory fell to only 6.7 months in March.
Following the highest three-month period in history for foreclosures, the total number of foreclosures declined 6.0 percent across the country in the first quarter of 2010. However, the 932,234 foreclosures recorded in the first quarter were 16.0 percent higher than the total in the first quarter of 2009. A partial explanation may be that banks were starting to work through the shadow inventory of pending foreclosures.
1
Existing Home Sales Sales Median Sales Price Month's Supply 1
New Home Sales Sales Median Sales Price Month's Supply Foreclosures Non-Farm Employment Unemployment Rate
2
3 3
Consumer Confidence Overall Index Present Situation Index Expectations Index 3
Monthly Mortgage Rates
4
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 1
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (000s); 3rd Month of Quarter
2
Seasonally Adjusted (000s); 3rd Month of Quarter
3
3rd Month of Quarter
4
Measures percentage change from previous quarter; 3rd Estimate
Virginia Association of REALTORS® • Lisa@VARealtor.com 10231 Telegraph Road • Glen Allen, VA 23059 Tel: (804) 264-5033 • Fax: (804) 262-0497 • www.VARealtor.com
Prepared by Rosemary deButts, Housing Analyst 540.338.2212 • www.housinganalyst.net rosemarydebutts@verizon.net