Published by Virginia Association of REALTORS速, the advocate for real estate professionals and property owners in Virginia.
2011
NOVEMBER
VIRGINIA HOME SALES REPORT
Virginia Monthly Home Sales Report
November 2011
Virginia's Monthly Pace of Residential Sales Single Family, Townhomes, Condos 10,000
Keep on reading! 9,000
8,000
9,150
Despite slightly slower sales, prices have remained relatively stable in Virginia.
8,112
7,904
8,046
7,094 7,000
6,000
6,830
6,664
6,470
6,145
6,018
5,810
-3.4%
5,112 5,000
4,711
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0 Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
While still on a slight decline (-3.4%), the pace of home sales in Virginia has stayed relatively steady over the past 12 months. The 3.4% decline in home sales between November 2010 and 2011 is only a modest adjustment compared to the 13% decline seen earlier this year between June 2010 and 2011. This recent, more moderate decline is one indicator of stability returning to Virginia’s housing market. An additional indicator is the fact that the YTD pace of home sales in Virginia (75,578) is only 1.9% lower than the 2010 YTD pace (77,101). Even without the federal home buyer tax credit in 2011, Virginia’s housing market has stayed relatively stable this year.
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Virginia Monthly Home Sales Report
November 2011
Virginia Median Residential Sales Price Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
$200,000
$220,000
$215,000
$222,000
$239,700
$240,000
$245,000
$225,000
$230,000
$215,000
$213,700
$232,815
$236,000
$230,000
$239,888
$250,000
$256,730
$249,500
$235,000
$231,000
$227,290
$220,000
$235,000
$225,000
$205,000
Median Sales Price
$250,000
$225,000
$300,000
+4.9%
$150,000
-2.2%
$100,000
Virginia’s median sales price peaks each summer and then declines again each winter. Comparing year-over-year figures, however, we see that home values seem to have remained relatively steady over the past several years. The 4.9% increase in median sales price between November 2009 and 2010 was likely due in part to the federal home buyer tax credit. The overall two-year decline from $225,000 in November 2009 to $220,000 in November 2011 marks only a 2.2% downward adjustment in home values. As the pace of home sales steadies and eventually starts to increase, we should then see a stabilization and then increase in long-term trends in median sales prices.
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Virginia Monthly Home Sales Report
November 2011
Virginia Monthly Residential Sales Volume Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 3,000 2,813
2,500
2,383
Millions of Dollars of Residential Sales
2,320
2,000
1,921
1,895
2,395
1,930
1,919
1,771 1,678 1,500
1,626
1,353 1,245
1,000
500
0 Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
The total volume of real estate sold in Virginia during November 2011 ($1.626B) marks an 8% decrease in the volume of real estate being transferred as compared to last November. This decline is to be expected given the slight decline in median sales prices and the pace of residential sales. It is important to note, however, that despite this 8% decline in November, 2011 YTD sales volume ($21.6B) shows only a 5% decline from 2010 YTD sales volume ($22.7B). This, again, is without the benefit of a federal home buyer tax credit in 2011 -- which makes this small decline an indication that we may see further stability in Virginia’s housing market in 2012.
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Virginia Monthly Home Sales Report
November 2011
Virginia Average Days On Market Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos +9%
120
+11% 100 101 99
100
95 91 86 82
Average Days On Market
80
87
86
85
85
82 76
78
80
86
98
97
94 87
88
98
99
91
80
60
40
20
0
After an 11% increase in average days on market between November 2009 (82) and November 2010 (91) there was less significant increase in this metric (+9%) between November 2010 (91 days) and November 2011 (99 days). It is typical to see an increase in average days on market between the summer months and winter months, thus we will likely see this metric increase a bit more through February.
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Virginia Monthly Home Sales Report
November 2011
Virginia Unemployment Rate
6.4%
6.5%
6.3%
6.1%
6.0%
6.0%
6.1%
6.3%
6.6%
6.9%
6.4%
6.5%
6.4%
6.5%
6.9%
6.9%
7.0%
6.8%
6.7%
7.4%
7.0%
7.8%
7%
6.8%
6.8%
8%
7.7%
Source: Bureau of Labor & Statistics 9%
6% 5% Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Virgin’a unemployment rate edged back downward in October 2011 to 6.4% and it still remains quite low compared to the rest of the nation. The current level of 6.4% places Virginia in a tie for 7th place in the country for the lowest unemployment rate. While comparatively low, we still need to see stability or a decline in this rate for this to translate into an overall improvement in Virginia’s economy and Virginia’s real estate market.
Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac 5.5% 5.0% 4.5%
4.7%
4.8%
5.0%
4.9%
4.8%
4.6%
4.3%
4.5%
4.6% 4.2%
4.0%
4.0%
4.1%
Sep-11
Oct-11
4.0%
3.5% 3.0% Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
Just when you thought they couldn’t go any lower, average 30-year mortgage interest rates fell below 4.0% in November 2011 to an average of 3.98%. Current interest rates are by far the most favorable rates seen anytime in the past decade. These tremendously low interest rates are making it quite compelling for buyers to step into the market, given how they can protect themselves from inflation by fixing their housing costs at such a low, long term rate.
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Virginia Monthly Home Sales Report
November 2011
The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the business advocate for real estate professionals in Virginia. VAR represents more than 29,000 REALTORS active in all phases of real estate brokerage, management, development and appraisal. Our mission is to enhance our membership’s ability to achieve business success. All inquiries regarding this report should be directed to: Stacey Ricks, Director of Public Relations Virginia Association of REALTORS® 10231 Telegraph Road, Glen Allen, VA 23059 (804) 249-5716 Stacey@VARealtor.com www.VARealtor.com/HomeSales Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by R E Stats Inc. All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere.
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