2011_1Q Home Sales Report

Virginia

Quarterly Home Sales Report First Quarter 2011

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2011-Q1

Virginia Month-to-Month Sales Trends Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2008

2009

2010

2011

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0 January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September October

November December

Month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2008

4,823

5,776

7,325

8,047

8,881

9,742

9,474

8,894

8,072

7,418

5,543

6,680

2009

4,758

5,391

6,740

7,212

8,096

9,849

9,593

8,536

8,006

8,366

7,876

6,549

2010

4,556

4,880

7,063

8,321

8,884

10,474

7,122

7,197

6,419

6,022

6,003

6,457

2011

4,669

5,051

6,827

Residential home sales in the first quarter of 2011 have followed the general trend of the last several years with year-to-date sales just 0.3% above last year. January and February home sales in 2011 exceed the same month the prior year (by 2.5% and 3.5%), however March 2011 home sales fell 3.3% below last March. The second quarter of 2011 will likely not be as rosy as last year, as April 2010 and June 2010 were two of the deadlines for the federal home buyer tax credit, which lead to abnormally high sales figures.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2011-Q1

Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 30,000 27,679 26,670

26,440

26,135 25,157

Num mber of Single Fa amily, Townhome e and Condo Sale es

25,000 22 791 22,791 20,738 19,641

20,000

18,482

17,924 16,889

16,499

16,547

15,000

10,000

5,000

0 2008-Q1 2008-Q2 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 Quarter

Thus far, 2011 has stayed closely on track with both 2009 and 2010, with first quarter home sales (the orange bars above) within 2% of home sales in each of the prior to years. The best quarter of home sales over the past three years was the 2nd quarter of 2010, largely due to the federal home buyer tax credits, which enticed buyers to enter the market with deadlines of April 2010 and June 2010. Without the tax credit in place this year, it will be difficult for 2011 home sales to come close to 2010 levels.

Beyond the lack of a tax credit, there are several other factors that could affect the housing market in Virginia (and beyond) through the remainder of 2011. There are currently discussions by some in Washington of eliminating the mortgage interest deduction, which would likely create a significant downward pressure on buyer demand and on home values as a result. Furthermore, changes in the FHA financing program, as well as reform of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, may increase the cost of mortgages to home buyers, which will also decrease buyer demand.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2011-Q1

Virginia Annualized Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 96,000 94,104

Num mber of Single Fa amily, Townhome e and Condo Sale es

94,000

93,104

92,000 90,784 90,000

90,894

90,972

90,675

90,582

89,640 88,127

88,000

87,822

87,707

86,000

84,000

83,398

83,446

82 000 82,000

80,000

78,000 2008-Q1 2008-Q2 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 Quarter

Each data point on the graph above includes 12 months of home sales data, thus the 2011-Q1 figure includes home sales from 2010-Q2 through 2011-Q1. Using this rolling sum of home sales can provide a clearer indicator of the trends we are seeing in Virginia’s housing market.

The annualized rate of home sales in Virginia has fallen 11% over the past three years, which overall, is not a significant decline. The federal home buyer tax credit in late 2009 and early 2010 started to breathe life back into the real estate market, but buyer activity quickly faded in the 3rd (and then 4th) quarter of 2010 after that incentive had passed.

Over the past three months, the housing market seems to have become a bit more stable, as the annualized rate of sales has leveled off. If we see an increase in this annualized rate in the 2nd quarter of 2011, it may be evidence the real estate market is starting to rebound again.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2011-Q1

Regional Changes in Sales 2010-Q1 vs. 2011-Q1 Units

Northern Virginia -7.9% Central Valley +6.5%

Greater Richmond +8.6% Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +0.1% Southwest Virginia -7.8%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay +12.8%

Southside Virginia +4.5%

Region

2010-Q1

2011-Q1

Change

Central Valley

783

834

+6.5%

Greater Richmond

2,279

2,474

+8.6%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay

3,502

3,950

+12.8%

Northern Virginia

8,243

7,594

-7.9%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg

1,171

1,172

+0.1%

Southside Virginia

337

352

+4.5%

Southwest Virginia

179

165

-7.8%

Many regions in Virginia witnessed an increase in home sales when comparing the 1st quarter of 2011 to the 1st quarter of 2010. The Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay area showed the best performance in the state, with a 13% increase in home sales over the past year. Greater Richmond and the Central Valley also performed well, with 8.6% and 6.5% increase over the past year.

Northern Virginia showed the largest decline in home sales with a 7.9% decline over the past year, followed shortly thereafter by Southwest Virginia with a 7.8% decline.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2011-Q1

Virginia Median Residential Sales Price Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

$210,000

$233,000

$249,900

$239,900

$225,000

$225,839

$229,900

$229,900

$246,500

$229,000

$216,000

Median Sales Price

$250,000

$260,000

$250,000

$300,000

$200,000

$150,000

$100,000 2008-Q1 2008-Q2 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 Quarter

Despite turbulent times in housing markets across the country, the median sales price of homes in Virginia has only declined a total of 16% over the past three years. Most recently, since the 1st quarter of 2010, the median sales price has declined 6.7% to $210,000.

The overall Virginia housing market witnessed an increase in buyer demand in the 2nd quarter of 2010, translating into a temporary spike in the median home price as well -- which increased to $249,900 by the third quarter of 2010. This temporary boost was helpful for home sellers in the 2nd quarter and 3rd quarter of 2010, but has quickly faded over the past six months.

We will likely not see a stabilization (or increase) in the median home value until we start to see an overall increase in buyer demand via an increased pace of home sales. That may have started to occur over the past several months, so it is possible that we will see price stabilization by late 2011 or early 2012.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2011-Q1

Regional Changes in Median Sales Prices 2010-Q1 vs. 2011-Q1

Northern Virginia -0.3% Central Valley -4.9%

Greater Richmond -8.1% Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg -6.6% Southwest Virginia -20.4%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay -8.7%

Southside Virginia -10.6%

Region

2010-Q1

2011-Q1

Change

Central Valley

$196,750

$187,020

-4.9%

Greater Richmond

$185,000

$170,000

-8.1%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay

$207,000

$189,000

-8.7%

Northern Virginia

$280,815

$280,000

-0.3%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg

$149,900

$140,000

-6.6%

Southside Virginia

$82,488

$73,750

-10.6%

Southwest Virginia

$116,450

$92,700

-20.4%

Northern Virginia was the only region without a decrease in median sales price over the past year, as shown in gray above (-0.3%). The remainder of Virginia experienced a decline in median sales price varying from 4.9% (Central Valley) to 20.4% (Southwest Virginia).

It is also interesting to note the continued wide disparity in median sales prices across the state, ranging from a low of only $73,750 in Southside Virginia to a high of $280,000 in Northern Virginia. Northern Virginia’s stability in median sales price was despite a 7.9% decrease in home sales between the first quarter of 2010 and the first quarter of 2011.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2011-Q1

Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Volume Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 9,000 8 481 8,481 8,191

8,005

8,000

7,622 7,182

7,000 Millions of D Dollars of Residen ntial Sales

6,404 6,000 5,483

6,398

5,585

5,425

5,000

4,549

4,416

4,387

4,000

3,000

2 000 2,000

1,000

0 2008-Q1 2008-Q2 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 Quarter

First quarter 2011, with $4.4 billion of residential sales has matched the starting pace of each of the past two years ($4.4B in 2009-Q1, $4.5B in 2010-Q1). The differentiating factor for the past several years has been the second, third and fourth quarters. Second quarter 2010 had the advantage of the federal home buyer tax credit, which is no longer in place, thus second quarter 2011 will likely show a decline from the $8.2 billion of residential sales in second quarter 2010.

The decline in median sales price over the past two quarters will also likely impact these volume statistics, as the overall volume of residential real estate sold may show a decline even if the same number of units sell this year as compared to last year.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2011-Q1

Virginia Average Days On Market Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 120 108

106 100

100

103 99

100 96 91

87

79

80

Average Days On Market

84

86 81

60

40

20

0 2008-Q1 2008-Q2 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 Quarter

When looking at a three year history, the average time to market and sell a house has not experienced much of a change – from an average of 106 days in first quarter 2008 to 100 days in first quarter 2011. Of note, this metric of average days on market did dip remarkably low to only 79 days on the market in second quarter 2010 – again, timed with two of the expirations dates of the federal home buyer tax credit.

Since the final expiration of the tax credit (June 2010), the average time to market and sell a home has steadily increased back to levels seen two and three years ago. The next several months will be important to watch as we continue through the spring and then summer real estate markets.

Increased buyer activity (as is typical at this time of year) could help to level off this days on market market indicator – or, a flurry of new listings could cause it to continue to rise even higher above current levels.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2011-Q1

Virginia Price Distribution Of Residential Home Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2010-Q1 20 21

$2M +

+5%

34 -9% 31

$1.5M - $2M

131 +1% 132

$1M - $1.5M

298 +6% 317

$750K - $1M

Price Range

2011-Q1

$500K - $750K

1,208 +1% 1,219

$400K - $500K

1,222 -9% 1,115 2,333 -12% 2,059

$300K - $400K

4,087

$200K - $300K

3,766

-8% 5,278 -1% 5,246

$100K - $200K 1,888

0 - $100K

2,641 0

1,000

2,000

+40%

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

Sales of homes priced under $100,000 increased by 40% over the past year – however most other price ranges witnessed a decrease in sales. In fact, all price ranges between $200,000 and $500,000 experienced a decrease in home sales over the past year – other than this most affordable price range under $100,000.

Despite declines in all mid range homes ($200,000 to $500,000) home sales above $500,000 remained relatively stable over the past year. The increase in the sale of lower priced homes and the decline in the sale of higher priced homes has likely been a key contributor to declines in median sales prices. Also, Northern Virginia’s median sales price in the mid $300,000s is an indicator that many of the home sales over $500,000 were likely in that one region. With overall increases in the frequency of sales of higher priced homes, this has fared well for the median sales price of homes in the Northern Virginia region.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2011-Q1

Regional Changes in Foreclosures 2010-Q4 vs. 2011-Q1

Northern Virginia -21.9% Central Valley -38.5%

Greater Richmond -17.1% Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg -25.8% Southwest Virginia -18.7%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay -17.5%

Southside Virginia -37.3%

Region

2010-Q4

2011-Q1

Change

Central Valley

441

271

-38.5%

Greater Richmond

2,645

2,194

-17.1%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay

3,933

3,245

-17.5%

Northern Virginia

6,409

5,001

-21.9%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg

627

465

-25.8%

Southside Virginia

332

208

-37.3%

Southwest Virginia

48

39

-18.7%

All of Virginia

14,435

11,423

-20.8%

Every region in Virginia witnessed a decline in foreclosure during first quarter 2011, ranging from a 17.1% decline (Greater Richmond) to a 38.5% decline (Central Valley). While there are still plenty of foreclosures taking place in Virginia (11,423 in first quarter 2011) this 20.8% overall decline across the state is a promising indicator that we may see a gradual improvement in the health of the overall housing market.

Data Source: RealtyTrac

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2011-Q1

Virginia Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor & Statistics 8%

7%

7.2%

6.7%

6.9%

7.0%

7.4%

6%

6.5%

6.4%

6.3%

5.1%

5% 4%

7.0%

3.6%

4.0%

4.0%

3% 2% 2008-Q1 2008-Q2 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1

Unemployment Rates By State seasonally adjusted, March 2011 (U.S. rate = 8.8 percent)

14.0% and over 12.0% to 13.9% 10.0% to 11.9% 8.0% to 9.9%

6 .0% tto 77 .9% 9% 4.0% to 5.9% SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics

3.9% or below

Virginia continues to fare quite well in keeping residents employed, compared to the rest of the country. While the unemployment rate has increased 75% in Virginia over the past three years to 6.3%, it still remains well below the national average of 8.8%. It is also important to note that Virginia’s unemployment rate has remained relatively stable over the past two years, and has started to decline over the past year from 7.4% in March 2010 to 6.3% in March 2011.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2011-Q1

Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac 6 5% 6.5% 6.0%

6.3% 6.0%

6.0%

5.5%

5.4%

5.3%

5.0%

5 1% 5.1%

5.0%

4.9%

5.0%

4.7%

4.5%

4.7%

4.8%

4.4%

4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2008-Q1 2008-Q2 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1

Average 15-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac 6 5% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5%

5.9% 5.4%

5.6% 5.0% 5 0%

4.9% 4.6%

4.0%

4.5%

4.4%

4.3%

4.2%

4.1%

4.1%

3.8%

3.5% 3.0% 2008-Q1 2008-Q2 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1

Mortgage interest rates have remained extraordinarily low over the past three years --- with 30 year rates declining from at/above 6% to below 5%. Interest rates hit their lowest point in the 3rd quarter of 2010, with a national average of 4.4% on a 30 year interest rate and 3.8% on a 15 year rate. Interest rates will likely stay below 6% for the forseeable future, though they may start to increase as we continue throughout 2011.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2011-Q1

The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the business advocate for real estate professionals in Virginia. VAR represents more than 29,000 REALTORS active in all phases of real estate brokerage, management, development and appraisal. Our mission is to enhance our membership’s ability to achieve business success.

All inquiries regarding this report should be directed to: Stacey Ricks, Director of Public Relations Virginia Association of REALTORS® 10231 Telegraph Road, Glen Allen, VA 23059 (804) 249-5716 Stacey@VARealtor.com www.VARealtor.com/HomeSales

Economic Regions

Central Valley: Greater Richmond:

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay:

Northern Virginia:

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg:

Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City, Highland, Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chesterfield, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan, Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier, Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Bedford City, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke, Roanoke City, Salem City

Southside Virginia:

Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City, Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania

Southwest Virginia:

Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe

Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by R E Stats Inc. All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere.

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