2011- Q4 Virginia Home Sales Report

速速 Published , the PublishedbybyVirginia Virginiaassociation associationofofreaLtors reaLtors , theadvocate advocateforfor real realestate estateprofessionals professionalsand andproperty propertyowners ownersininVirginia.

Virginia.

2011

Quarter

second FOURTH

VIRGINIA Home HomeSAleS SAleSRepoRt RepoRt

ebruary

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2011-Q4

Virginia Month-to-Month Sales Trends Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2008

2009

2010

2011

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

12,000

10,000

Virginia Month-to-Month Sales Trends Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

8,000

2008

2009

2010

2011

6,000

4,000

Virginia Month-to-Month Sales Trends 2,000 Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2008

2009

2010

2011

0 January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September October

November December

Month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2008

4,823

5,776

7,325

8,047

8,881

9,742

9,474

8,894

8,072

7,418

5,543

6,680

2009

4,758

5,391

6,740

7,212

8,096

9,849

9,593

8,545

8,018

8,384

7,892

6,573

2010

4,562

4,892

7,087

8,337

8,903

10,493

7,137

7,210

6,427

6,035

6,010

6,468

2011

4,713

5,112

7,098

6,745

8,411

9,533

8,170

8,348

6,903

6,222

5,998

6,495

Residential home sales in Virginia during the fourth quarter of 2011 stayed on pace with the fourth quarter of 2010. While there was a slight year-over-year increase in sales during October, home sales during both November and December of 2010 were within 1% of the same month the previous year. As is typical, home sales declined during the fourth quarter.

â–˛3%

Looking back sales were lower than March April at 2011, May second JunequarterJuly August September October 2010 because of the federal home buyer Month tax credit in 2010. Third

November December

quarter sales were higher than 2010, also likely a result of the tax credit, which may have caused some intended 2010-Q3 buyers to go ahead and buy in 2010-Q2 before the tax credit expired.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2011-Q4

Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 30,000 27,733 25,157 16,889

24,689

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

25,000

23,421

22,849 20,774 20,000

19,641 18,715

18,513 19,641

16,923

16,541

15,000

10,000

5,000

0 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 Quarter

Virginia residential home sales remained relatively stable in the fourth quarter of 2011 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2010. In fact, home sales for the entire year (83,748 in 2011) stayed very consistent with the previous year (83,561 in 2010). This stability is significant, as 2010 had the benefit of the federal home buyer tax credit. If overall economic conditions continue to improve (consumer confidence, employment situation, etc.) then there is reasonable hope for an improved housing market for Virginia in 2012.

It is interesting to note that the quarterly pace of home sales during 2010 seems to have shifted (in timing) during 2010 based on the federal home buyer tax credit. The June 30, 2010 expiration of the federal home buyer tax credit created the highest pace of quarterly home sales in Virginia seen anytime in the past three years.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2011-Q4

Virginia Annualized Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 100,000

95,000

93,279

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

90,675 90,000

85,000

80,000

89,640

Natural

91,051 88,127

90,703 87,897

87,843

Decline

red

ost it Bo

Tax C

Po

75,000

83,561

st T ax-

83,943

83,546

83,748

80,899

Cre

dit

De

cli

ne

ery?

v Reco

70,000

65,000

60,000

55,000

50,000 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 Quarter

Each data point on the graph above includes 12 months of home sales data, thus the 2011-Q4 figure includes home sales from 2011-Q1 through 2011-Q4. Using this rolling sum of home sales can provide a clearer indicator of the trends we are seeing in Virginia’s housing market.

This graph will always be somewhat slow to reveal market trends, as it is including a rolling twelve months of data -- but it can much more reliably indicate when there has been a shift in market trajectory. Encouragingly, the pace of home sales seems to have bottomed out several quarters ago, as there was an increase in the annualized rate of home sales for the past two quarters.

The overall trends seem to be directly tied to the federal home buyer tax credit. The housing market in Virginia was declining through 2009 (2008-Q4 through 2009-Q3) until the federal home buyer tax credit went into effect. Home sales increased in pace while the federal home buyer tax credit lasted (2009-Q3 through 2010-Q2), but then declined again (2010-Q2 through 2011-Q2). Finally free of the impact of the tax credit, the pace of home sales now seems to be increasing on its own.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2011-Q4

Regional Changes in Sales 2010-Q4 vs. 2011-Q4 Units

Northern Virginia -9.1% Central Valley +8.3%

Greater Richmond +9.6% Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +9.8% Southwest Virginia +9.4%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay +12.9%

Southside Virginia +2.4%

Region

2010-Q4

2011-Q4

Change

Central Valley

985

1,067

+8.3%

Greater Richmond

2,669

2,924

+9.6%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay

3,969

4,480

+12.9%

Northern Virginia

9,047

8,221

-9.1%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg

1,275

1,400

+9.8%

Southside Virginia

327

335

+2.4%

Southwest Virginia

235

257

+9.4%

Home sales increased in nearly every region of Virginia when comparing the fourth quarter of 2011 to the fourth quarter of 2010. Despite a 9% decline in Northern Virginia, five of Virginia’s seven regions experienced a sizable increase (8% - 13%) in home sales in the fourth quarter of 2011. The most substantive increase in sales pace took place in the Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay area with a 12.9% increase in sales.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2011-Q4

Virginia Median Residential Sales Price Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

$220,000

$235,000

$234,900 $210,000

$233,000

$249,900

$239,900

$225,000

$225,839

$229,900

$229,900

$216,000

Median Sales Price

$250,000

$229,000

$300,000

$200,000

$150,000

$100,000 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 Quarter

After slightly inching upward in the third quarter of 2011 to a median price of $235,000, home values declined to a median price of $220,000 in the fourth quarter of 2011. It is important to note, however, that a decline between the third and fourth quarters is the normal trend in Virginia -- as seen above for the past two years.

Also of note, the median sales price in Virginia has only declined a total of 4% over the past three years, from its previous value of $229,000 in the fourth quarter of 2008. Given that Virginia has seen two quarters of consecutive increases in the pace of annualized home sales, we may start to see prices stabilize in 2012.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2011-Q4

Regional Changes in Median Sales Prices 2010-Q4 vs. 2011-Q4

Northern Virginia -0.2% Central Valley -3.7%

Greater Richmond -8.5% Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg -2.3% Southwest Virginia -6.3%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay -7.6%

Southside Virginia +1.2%

Region

2010-Q4

2011-Q4

Change

Central Valley

$202,500

$195,000

-3.7%

Greater Richmond

$187,500

$171,548

-8.5%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay

$209,900

$194,000

-7.6%

Northern Virginia

$305,745

$304,995

-0.2%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg

$153,500

$150,000

-2.3%

Southside Virginia

$85,000

$84,000

-1.2%

Southwest Virginia

$128,000

$120,000

-6.3%

Despite almost across-the-board increases in the pace of home sales during 2011, median prices shifted downward in most regions when comparing the fourth quarter of 2011 to the fourth quarter of 2010. Northern Virginia experienced the smallest decrease in median sales prices (-0.2%). The Southside Virginia and Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg regions also experienced very small adjustments (-1.2%, -2.3%). The most significant decline in median sales prices over the past year was in the Greater Richmond area, where the median sales price declined by 8.5%.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2011-Q4

Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Volume Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 9,000 8,198 8,000

7,625 7,295

7,182

6,897

7,000 Millions of Dollars of Residential Sales

6,411 6,000

6,402

5,585

5,433

5,000 4,416

4,553

5,180 4,496

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 Quarter

This graph illustrates the number of millions of dollars of real estate sold during each quarter over the past three years. The volume of real estate sold in the fourth quarter of 2011 ($5.18B) marks only a 4.6% decline from the fourth quarter of 2010 ($5.43B). The annual declines in the second quarter and third quarter of 2011 were much more significant -- again suggesting that Virginia’s housing market may be starting to stabilize.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2011-Q4

Virginia Average Days On Market Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 120 108 103 100

91 87

84

92

91

86 79

80

Average Days On Market

100

100 96

81

60

40

20

0 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 Quarter

When looking at a three year history, the average time to market and sell a house has not experienced much of a change – from an average of 103 days in the fourth quarter of 2008 to 100 days in the fourth quarter of 2011. Of note, this metric of average days on market did dip remarkably low to only 79 days on the market in second quarter 2010 – again, timed with two of the expirations dates of the federal home buyer tax credit.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2011-Q4

Virginia Price Distribution Of Residential Home Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2010-Q4

$2M +

38 -21% 30

$1.5M - $2M

60 -24% 38 166 -2% 162

$1M - $1.5M

439 -15% 372

$750K - $1M

Price Range

2011-Q4

1,585 -7% 1,474

$500K - $750K

1,495 -5% 1,418

$400K - $500K

2,686 -5% 2,552

$300K - $400K

4,374 -3% 4,221

$200K - $300K

5,429 +5% 5,695

$100K - $200K 2,254

0 - $100K

2,753 0

500

1,000

1,500

+22%

2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

Home sales in Virginia in price ranges under $200,000 showed an increase in the fourth quarter of 2011 as compared to one year prior in the fourth quarter of 2010. The pace of sales increased most significantly under $100,000 (+22%) though the 5% increase in sales of $100,000 - $200,000 was also a sizable increase. All other price ranges experienced a decline in the pace of sales. The most significant declines were of properties over $1.5M in price.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2011-Q4

Regional Changes in Foreclosures 2011-Q3 vs. 2011-Q4

Northern Virginia -27.2% Central Valley -35.6%

Greater Richmond -26.7% Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +11.8% Southwest Virginia -45.7%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay -26.7%

Southside Virginia -24.9%

Region

2011-Q3

2011-Q4

Change

Central Valley

396

255

-35.6%

Greater Richmond

2,347

1,721

-26.7%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay

3,279

2,402

-26.7%

Northern Virginia

5,850

4,258

-27.2%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg

474

530

+11.8%

Southside Virginia

241

181

-24.9%

Southwest Virginia

81

44

-45.7%

All of Virginia

12,668

9,391

-25.9%

Overall, Virginia witnessed a remarkable 26% decline in foreclosures when comparing the fourth quarter of 2011 to the third quarter of 2011. Some areas experienced declines in excess of 30% in the rate of foreclosures (-45.7% in Southwest Virginia, -35.6% in the Central Valley). The Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg region was the only area of Virginia to experience and increase in foreclosures during the fourth quarter of 2011.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2011-Q4

Monthly Residential Sales VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales)

UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales) 600,000

16,000 14,000

500,000

12,000 10,000

337,000

304,000

400,000 300,000

8,000 6,000 6,010

4,000

5,998

200,000 100,000

2,000

0

0 Nov-10

Dec-10

Jan-11

Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

The monthly variation in the pace of home sales is relatively consistent in Virginia as compared to the entire United States. November 2011 home sales increased 11% in the United States (existing home sales only) as compared to November 2010, while Virginia experienced a 2% decline.

Monthly Residential Median Sales Price VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales)

UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales)

$300,000

$240,000

$250,000 $236,750

$220,200

$220,000 $200,000

$200,000

$180,000

$150,000 $170,200

$160,000 $164,200

$100,000

$140,000 $120,000

$50,000

$100,000 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11

Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11

Median home prices have declined in both Virginia and the United States over the past year (November 2010 to November 2011), though home values declined a bit more in Virginia (-7% over the past year) than in the United States overall (-3.5%)

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2011-Q4

Virginia Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor & Statistics 8% 7%

6.7%

7.2%

6.9%

7.4%

7.0%

6% 5%

7.0%

6.5%

6.4%

6.3%

6.0%

6.5%

6.2%

5.1%

4% 3% 2% 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4

2011-Q4 unemployment rate based on November 2011 data.

Unemployment Rates By State seasonally adjusted, November 2011 (U.S. rate = 8.6 percent)

14.0% and over 12.0% to 13.9% 10.0% to 11.9% 8.0% to 9.9% 6 0% tto 77.9% 6.0% 9% 4.0% to 5.9% SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics

3.9% or below

Virginia’s unemployment rates have been steadily declining for more than a year now, from 7.4% in the first quarter of 2010 down to the current level of 6.2%. While it may be quite some time until Virginia reaches returns to an unemployment rate as low as 4.0% (as in early 2008), it is encouraging news that an increasing number of Virginians are employed, as this bodes well for further stability and recovery in Virginia’s housing market. Of note, Virginia continues to fare quite well as compared to other states across the United States, as only nine states have lower unemployment rates than Virginia.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2011-Q4

Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac 6.0% 5.5%

5.4%

5.3% 5.0%

5.1%

5.0%

5.0%

4.9%

4.7%

4.5%

4.7%

4.9% 4.5%

4.4%

4.0%

4.0%

4.0%

3.5% 3.0% 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4

Average 15-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac 5.5% 5.0% 4.5%

5.0%

4.9% 4.6%

4.5%

4.4%

4.0%

4.3%

4.2%

4.1% 3.8%

3.5%

4.1% 3.7% 3.3%

3.0%

3.0%

2.5% 2.0% 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4

Mortgage interest rates have remained extraordinarily low over the past three years --- with 30 year rates dipping down to only 3.95% in December 2011 and the average 15 year rate falling to only 3.0% in the final qutarter of 2011. Interest rates will likely stay below 5% for the foreseeable future, though they may start to increase as we continue throughout 2012.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2011-Q4

The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the business advocate for real estate professionals in Virginia. VAR represents more than 29,000 REALTORS active in all phases of real estate brokerage, management, development and appraisal. Our mission is to enhance our membership’s ability to achieve business success.

All inquiries regarding this report should be directed to: Stacey Ricks, Director of Public Relations Virginia Association of REALTORS® 10231 Telegraph Road, Glen Allen, VA 23059 (804) 249-5716 Stacey@VARealtor.com www.VARealtor.com/HomeSales

Economic Regions

Central Valley: Greater Richmond:

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay:

Northern Virginia:

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg:

Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City, Highland, Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chesterfield, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan, Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier, Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Bedford City, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke, Roanoke City, Salem City

Southside Virginia:

Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City, Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania

Southwest Virginia:

Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe

Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by R E Stats Inc. All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere.

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