2013 06 Federal Reserve Bank Rich VAR survey

SURVEY OF VIRGINIA REALTORS

June 24, 2013 R. Andrew Bauer Sonya Ravindranath Waddell Regional Research Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond The survey was conducted jointly by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and the Virginia Association of Realtors. The survey period was May 6 to May 17, 2013. We would like to thank Stacey Ricks at the Virginia Association of Realtors for promoting the survey and garnering such a strong response by Association members. The contents of this report do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond or the Federal Reserve System.

Survey Results An online survey of the members of the Virginia Association of Realtors was conducted from May 6 to May 17, 2013. Members were asked 13 questions regarding the state of the residential housing market and how those conditions changed during the first quarter of 2013.1 The survey link was sent to the members by the Association and members were reminded over the course of the two weeks to participate. Due to the efforts of the Association a large number of Realtors (1,084) participated in the survey.

The results of the survey are documented here. We present results for the entire state, by region, and for specific counties and cities. A similar survey was conducted in April 2012 and we compare this year’s survey results with those. The results are not seasonally adjusted.2 The results of the survey indicate that during the first quarter of 20133: 

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Housing market conditions improved with 71 percent of respondents indicating that conditions were slightly or significantly better—an improvement of 14 percentage points from the April 2012 survey when participants were asked about market conditions in the first quarter of 2012.

Customer traffic picked up with 72 percent of respondents indicating that traffic was slightly or significantly greater.

First-time homebuyers constituted most of the customer traffic for more than half of respondents. While a modest change from last year, respondents indicated that there were more buyers purchasing bigger homes (“moving up”) and fewer were downsizing.

Median sale prices were slightly or significantly higher than one year prior according to 60 percent of respondents.

Respondents reported that foot traffic was more likely to translate to an actual sale in the first quarter of 2013 than in the first quarter of 2012.

The inventory picture changed notably since the last survey. In the 2012 survey 42 percent of respondents indicated that inventories were somewhat or very high while an equal percentage indicated they were somewhat or very low. In the current survey, only 15 percent indicated that inventories were somewhat or very high while 69 percent indicated they were somewhat or very low.

Over half of respondents indicated that distressed homes had somewhat of a negative impact on home prices in the current survey—similar to the results in

1

See the Appendix for the survey questions.

See data note in the Appendix regarding interpreting non-seasonally adjusted survey data.

3 See Table 1 for more detail.

2

2

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the April 2012 survey. However, the percentage of respondents indicating that distress homes greatly impacted prices declined from 41 to 18 percent.

There was little change from last year in the responses regarding appraisals.

Appraisals were viewed as somewhat or much too low by 53 percent of the respondents, down only slightly from 58 percent in the 2012 survey.

Underwriting and homebuyer financing continued to be an issue impacting the market as close to 50 percent of respondents indicated that tighter underwriting “occasionally” prevented a sale or that the buyers “occasionally” had difficulty obtaining financing. However, there was some improvement from last year, with the percentage of respondents indicating that underwriting or buyer financing were “frequently” a problem declined by 18 and 11 percentage points, respectively, to 21 and 23 percent.

When asked to characterize the housing market in April, 55 percent of respondents characterized market activity as somewhat strong or strong while 23 percent characterized it as somewhat weak or weak.

Overall, 65 percent of the survey respondents’ outlook for the housing market improved since the beginning of 2013 with only 10 percent indicating that it was slightly or significantly worse; an improvement from the 2012 survey where 51 percent indicated that the outlook for 2012 improved in the first quarter.

3

Table 1: Virginia Realtor Survey Results4 (percent of total responses) 2013

2012

Significantly or Slightly Worse

12

19

About the Same

18

24

71

57

12

19

About the Same

16

23

Significantly or Slightly Greater

72

57

First-time buyers

52

56

Customer Traffic

Homeowners moving up

29

(by Type)

Homeowners downsizing

Market Conditions

Significantly or Slightly Better Significantly or Slightly Lower Customer Traffic

Second-home buyers Significantly or Slightly Median Sales Lower Price About the Same (Q1 2013 vs Q1 2012)

Foot Traffic to Sales

Inventory

Significantly or Slightly Higher Significantly or Slightly Worse About the Same

9

Appraisals

2012

Not at All

27

8

Somewhat

55

51

Greatly

18

41

Much Too or Somewhat Low

53

58

About Right

44

38

4

4

30

10

49

51

21

39

Rarely

48

16

Occasionally

48

50

Frequently

23

34

Weak or Somewhat Weak

23

-

Average

23

-

55

-

10

20

About the Same

25

29

Significantly or Slightly Better

65

51

Much Too or Somewhat High

Rarely Tighter Underwriting 21 Occasionally Preventing a Sale 15 Frequently

10

9

14

-

27

-

60

-

18

26

39

Distressed Homes Impact on Prices

2013

39

Buyer Difficulty Obtaining Financing

Market Activity (April 2013)

Significantly or Slightly Better

43

35

Very or Somewhat Low

69

42

About Right

16

16

Very or Somewhat High

15

42

Outlook (Change Since Beginning of Year)

Strong or Somewhat Strong Significantly or Slightly Worse

4

Figures may not sum to 100 due to rounding.

4

Survey Results by Region The survey asked each participant to list the region(s) where their business primarily operates as well as the counties and cities within those regions. Based on those responses, we categorized survey respondents into one (or more) of eight geographic regions as defined in Table 2. We report the regional survey results in Table 3. In addition, we report the survey responses at the county and city level within each region for the counties and cities with the largest response rates in Tables 4-10.5 The regional results of the survey indicate that during the first quarter of 2013: 

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Market conditions improved broadly across the state with modest differences across regions. More than half of respondents in every region indicated that market activity was slightly or significantly greater. In five of the regions the percentage was 70 or higher. Only a small minority thought conditions were slightly or significantly worse, with a high of 24 percent in the Eastern region.

Trends across regions in customer traffic closely mirrored market conditions, with over half of respondents in every region indicating that customer traffic was slightly or significantly greater. In five regions the percentage was 70 or higher.

The conversion from foot traffic to closed sales showed very modest differences across regions. The Eastern region stood out from the other regions with just 31 percent of respondents indicating that conversion from traffic to sales was slightly or significantly better. Compared to the 2012 survey, there was improvement across regions, with Southside posting the greatest increase.

The type of home purchase varied considerably across regions, although firsttime home purchases were the most prevalent. In three regions (Southwest, Hampton Roads, Valley) the percentage of respondents reporting that most of their sales were to first-time homebuyers was 60 percent or higher while it was just 41 and 47 percent in the Eastern and West Central regions, respectively.

Notably, respondents reported an increase in homeowners moving up and second-home buyers along with fewer homeowners downsizing, particularly in the Eastern, Southside, West Central, and Southwest regions.

The change in the median sale price in the first quarter of 2013 compared to first quarter 2012 varied notably across regions. In the Northern region, 79 percent of respondents indicated that the median sales price was slightly or significantly higher while only 30 percent reported an increase in the Eastern region. In other regions, between 38 and 53 percent of respondents indicated an increase.

Not surprisingly, the price range of buyers varied considerably across regions.

The Northern region was the most expensive, with 50 percent of respondents

5

Many respondents listed more than one county or city where they conducted business so the total number of responses for the individual counties and cities are much larger than the response for each region.

5

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indicating that the typical range for their client was in the $400,000 to $500,000 range or greater. On the other end of the spectrum, close to 90 percent of respondents in the Southside and Southwest regions indicated that the typical price range was $100,000 to $200,000 or less than $100,000.

Inventory conditions varied considerably in 2013. Just two percent of respondents in the Northern region considered inventory levels somewhat or very high while 93 percent felt they were somewhat or very low. In contrast 61 percent in the Southside region indicated that inventories were somewhat or very high as well as 38 and 27 percent in the West Central and Southwest regions.

Distressed homes weighed on housing prices to varying degrees. With the exception of the Northern region, over 50 percent of respondents indicated that distressed homes “somewhat” negatively impacted prices. In the Hampton Roads and Eastern regions, 30 percent or more felt that they “greatly” impacted prices.

Appraisals were considered to be somewhat or much too low by close to 50 percent of respondents in five of the eight regions. In the Central, Valley, and Southwest region close to 60 percent felt appraisals were somewhat or much too low. There was a notable drop in the share of respondents who felt appraisals were too low in several regions from over 70 percent to between 50 and 62 percent (Southwest, Eastern, and Southside).

Tighter underwriting standards were a factor weighing on the market to varying degrees across regions. Between 56 and 43 percent of respondents indicated that tighter underwriting “occasionally” prevented a sale. However between 16 and 43 percent indicated that it “frequently” prevented one.

The extent of difficulty obtaining mortgage financing varied across regions. In the Northern region, 19 percent of respondents indicated that financing “frequently” prevented a sale whereas 46 percent in the Southwest region indicated the same with the other regions ranging from 21 to 35 percent.

Over 50 percent of respondents characterized activity in April 2013 as somewhat strong or strong in the Northwest, Hampton Roads, and West Central while roughly 30 percent characterized activity as strong in the Eastern, Southside, and Southwest regions with the percent response in the Valley and Central regions between 30 and 40 percent. Notably, in the Eastern and Southside regions 52 percent of respondents felt market activity was somewhat weak or weak.

The outlook for the year improved considerably with over 50 percent of respondents in six of the eight regions indicating that the outlook was slightly or significantly better since the beginning of the year. In the Eastern and Southside regions a slightly smaller percentage, 44 and 48 percent, respectively, indicated that the outlook improved.

6

Table 2: Virginia Regions6

Northern Alexandria, Arlington, Clarke, Fairfax City,Fairfax County,Falls Church, Fauquier, Fredericksburg, Loudoun, Manassas, Manassas Park, Prince William, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren

Central

Eastern

Valley

Alleghany, Augusta, Bath, Buena Accomack,Essex, King George, Vista, Covington, Frederick, Lancaster, Middlesex, Northampton, Harrisonburg, Highland, Lexington, Northumberland, Richmond Page, Rockbridge, Rockingham, County,Westmoreland Shenandoah, Staunton, Waynesboro, Winchester

Hampton Roads

Southside

Albemarle, Amelia, Buckingham, Caroline, Charles City, Charlottesville, Chesterfield, Colonial Heights, Chesapeake, Franklin, Gloucester, Culpeper, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville, Hampton, Isle of Wight, James City, Fluvanna, Goochland, Emporia, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Mathews, Newport News, Norfolk, Greene, Hanover, Henrico, Hopewell, Lunenburg,Martinsville, Mecklenburg, Poquoson, Portsmouth, Suffolk, King & Queen, King William, Louisa, Nottoway, Patrick, Pittsylvania, Prince Surry, Virginia Beach, Williamsburg, Madison, Nelson, New Kent, Orange, Edward, Southampton York Petersburg, Powhatan, Prince George, Rappahannock, Richmond City, Sussex

West Central

Southwest

Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford City, Bedford County, Botetourt, Campbell, Bland, Bristol, Buchanan, Carroll, Craig, Franklin County, Giles, Dickenson, Floyd, Galax, Grayson, Lynchburg, Montgomery, Pulaski, Lee, Norton, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Radford, Roanoke City, Roanoke Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe County, Salem

6

The responses were aggregated to eight regions as defined in “Virginia Performs: A Regional Perspective” by the Council on Virginia’s Future.

7

Table 3a: Responses by Region7 (percent of total responses)

Significantly or Slightly Worse

About the Same

Significantly or Slightly Better

Significantly or Slightly Worse

About the Same

Significantly or Slightly Better

Significantly or Slightly Lower

About the Same

Significantly or Slightly Greater

First-time buyers

Homeowners moving up

Homeowners downsizing

Second-home buyers

Customer Traffic - Type

Number of Responses

Market Conditions Foot Traffic to Sales Customer Traffic

1084 ALL 450 Northern Region 42 Eastern Region 75 Valley Region 255 Central Region Hampton Roads Region 241 23 Southside Region 81 West Central Region 27 Southwest Region

12 13 24 11 11 10 9 14 15

18 15 22 20 19 18 22 16 19

71 72 54 69 71 72 70 70 65

18 18 23 14 16 16 26 23 24

39 37 46 43 39 41 30 40 32

43 45 31 43 46 42 43 37 44

12 11 26 11 13 12 9 16 27

16 14 19 18 16 17 17 22 8

72 75 55 71 71 71 74 63 65

52 48 41 60 49 61 55 47 65

29 36 10 18 29 26 15 23 10

9 7 15 11 12 9 10 6 5

10 9 33 11 11 4 20 23 20

Region

Significantly or Slightly Higher

Very or Somewhat Low

About Right

Very or Somewhat High

Not at All

Somewhat

Greatly

Much Too or Somewhat Low

About Right

Much Too or Somewhat High

Appraisals

About the Same

Distressed Homes

Significantly or Slightly Lower

Inventory

Number of Responses

Median Sales Price

1084 ALL 450 Northern Region 42 Eastern Region 75 Valley Region 255 Central Region Hampton Roads Region 241 23 Southside Region 81 West Central Region 27 Southwest Region

14 7 24 12 16 20 22 20 19

27 14 38 37 32 31 39 50 38

60 79 38 51 53 49 39 30 42

69 93 54 52 63 55 22 32 42

16 4 15 30 19 26 17 30 31

15 2 32 18 18 19 61 38 27

27 46 10 14 18 9 13 21 12

55 47 56 70 56 61 65 59 72

18 7 34 16 25 30 22 21 16

53 51 49 59 58 53 48 46 62

44 45 46 38 39 45 48 48 38

4 4 5 3 2 3 4 6 0

Region

Underwriting

Occasionally

Frequently

Rarely

Occasionally

Frequently

Weak or Somewhat Weak

Average

Strong or Somewhat Strong

Significantly or Slightly Worse

About the Same

Significantly or Slightly Better

Outlook

Rarely

Market Activity

Number of Responses

Financing

1084 ALL 450 Northern Region 42 Eastern Region 75 Valley Region 255 Central Region Hampton Roads Region 241 23 Southside Region 81 West Central Region 27 Southwest Region

30 37 17 21 26 27 13 26 8

49 48 50 53 56 47 43 51 54

21 16 33 26 19 26 43 23 38

29 39 20 19 22 22 9 21 8

48 42 49 56 57 51 57 56 46

23 19 32 25 21 27 35 23 46

23 15 52 25 29 21 52 30 38

23 20 19 32 22 27 17 17 31

55 65 29 44 49 52 30 52 31

10 8 22 11 12 8 22 13 15

25 23 34 18 27 27 30 22 31

65 68 44 71 61 65 48 65 54

Region

7

Individual regions do not sum to total as some respondents listed more than one region.

8

Table 3b: Responses by Region8 (percent of total responses)

< $99,999

$100k to $199,999

$200k to $299,999

$300k to $399,999

$400k to $499,999

$500k to $749,999

$750k to $999,999

$1.0 million to $1,499,999

$1.5 million to $1,999,999

1073 ALL 628 Northern Region 57 Eastern Region 100 Valley Region 321 Central Region Hampton Roads Region 332 28 Southside Region 103 West Central Region 35 Southwest Region

6 1 7 9 5 6 32 14 37

26 11 33 49 37 30 54 45 51

25 17 21 25 33 38 14 26 9

17 22 21 8 15 15 0 10 3

12 22 5 7 4 5 0 2 0

9 17 9 2 4 3 0 4 0

3 6 0 0 1 1 0 0 0

1 3 4 0 0 1 0 0 0

0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Region

$2.0 million+

Number of Responses

Price Range of Typical Client in the First Quarter of 2013

0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

8

Individual regions do not sum to total as some respondents listed more than one region and listed several counties and cities within each region.

9

Virginia Realtor Survey Results by Region

10

Virginia Realtor Survey Results by Region

11

Virginia Realtor Survey Results by Region

12

Virginia Realtor Survey Results by Region

13

Table 4: Northern Region Responses (percent of total responses)

About the Same

Significantly or Slightly Better

Significantly or Slightly Worse

About the Same

Significantly or Slightly Better

Significantly or Slightly Lower

About the Same

Significantly or Slightly Greater

First-time buyers

Homeowners moving up

Homeowners downsizing

Second-home buyers

ALL Northern Region Alexandria Arlington Fairfax City Fairfax County Falls Church Loudoun Manassas Manassas Park Prince William Stafford

Significantly or Slightly Worse

Region

1084 450 170 175 152 295 153 179 126 88 206 90

12 13 15 13 13 13 14 12 13 14 14 10

18 15 15 17 15 15 17 13 17 16 16 13

71 72 70 69 72 72 70 74 70 70 71 77

18 18 19 15 18 18 18 22 25 23 22 20

39 37 38 40 37 36 39 33 34 38 35 40

43 45 43 44 45 47 43 45 42 38 42 40

12 11 13 10 10 11 11 10 15 14 14 10

16 14 11 14 13 14 13 10 13 13 14 11

72 75 76 76 77 76 76 80 72 74 72 79

52 48 50 49 46 46 50 46 55 60 50 60

29 36 36 39 37 40 37 38 32 30 36 24

9 7 5 4 7 6 6 6 5 1 6 5

10 9 9 8 10 8 7 9 8 9 7 11

About the Same

Significantly or Slightly Higher

Very or Somewhat Low

About Right

Very or Somewhat High

Not at All

Somewhat

Greatly

Much Too or Somewhat Low

About Right

Much Too or Somewhat High

14 7 7 6 7 5 7 7 10 9 7 6

27 14 15 10 13 12 13 12 13 13 15 10

60 79 79 84 80 82 80 81 78 78 78 84

69 93 96 96 96 96 95 96 95 93 96 94

16 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 5 3 5

15 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 2 1 1

27 46 53 57 49 55 56 49 42 40 41 28

55 47 40 36 45 39 38 47 52 56 50 56

18 7 7 7 6 5 6 4 6 5 8 17

53 51 49 50 45 48 49 48 44 41 44 48

44 45 46 45 49 47 46 48 52 54 51 44

4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 8

Financing

Occasionally

Frequently

Rarely

Occasionally

Frequently

Weak or Somewhat Weak

Average

Strong or Somewhat Strong

Significantly or Slightly Worse

About the Same

Significantly or Slightly Better

Outlook

Rarely

Market Activity

Number of Responses

ALL Northern Region Alexandria Arlington Fairfax City Fairfax County Falls Church Loudoun Manassas Manassas Park Prince William Stafford

Appraisals

1084 450 170 175 152 295 153 179 126 88 206 90

Underwriting

Region

Distressed Homes

Significantly or Slightly Lower

ALL Northern Region Alexandria Arlington Fairfax City Fairfax County Falls Church Loudoun Manassas Manassas Park Prince William Stafford

Inventory

Number of Responses

Median Sales Price

Region

Customer Traffic - Type

Number of Responses

Market Conditions Foot Traffic to Sales Customer Traffic

1084 450 170 175 152 295 153 179 126 88 206 90

30 37 35 38 33 40 35 40 37 36 38 26

49 48 47 45 47 45 45 46 43 45 45 56

21 16 18 17 20 14 20 14 20 20 17 18

29 39 41 44 40 44 40 42 39 38 40 30

48 42 40 36 40 39 38 41 38 38 41 43

23 19 20 20 20 17 22 16 23 25 20 27

23 15 10 9 11 11 9 13 15 15 17 18

23 20 18 18 17 17 16 14 20 20 21 22

55 65 72 73 73 72 75 72 65 66 62 60

10 8 8 7 8 7 9 8 7 7 11 8

25 23 19 20 19 22 21 21 21 22 22 24

65 68 73 72 73 71 70 71 71 72 67 68

14

Table 5: Eastern Region Responses

(percent of total responses) About the Same

Significantly or Slightly Better

Significantly or Slightly Worse

About the Same

Significantly or Slightly Better

Significantly or Slightly Lower

About the Same

Significantly or Slightly Greater

First-time buyers

Homeowners moving up

Homeowners downsizing

Second-home buyers

ALL Eastern Region King George Lancaster Middlesex Richmond County Westmoreland

Significantly or Slightly Worse

Region

1084 42 15 13 12 10 13

12 24 13 31 42 20 8

18 22 7 23 42 20 23

71 54 80 46 17 60 69

18 23 0 33 40 11 0

39 46 69 33 40 44 64

43 31 31 33 20 44 36

12 26 13 31 50 20 8

16 19 13 23 25 20 23

72 55 73 46 25 60 69

52 41 62 33 50 38 36

29 10 8 0 0 13 0

9 15 8 17 8 13 27

10 33 23 50 42 38 36

About the Same

Significantly or Slightly Higher

Very or Somewhat Low

About Right

Very or Somewhat High

Not at All

Somewhat

Greatly

Much Too or Somewhat Low

About Right

Much Too or Somewhat High

14 24 13 23 42 30 8

27 38 40 38 33 40 46

60 38 47 38 25 30 46

69 54 80 23 36 20 46

16 15 13 23 18 30 23

15 32 7 54 45 50 31

27 10 13 8 0 0 8

55 56 67 54 45 70 77

18 34 20 38 55 30 15

53 49 40 54 55 50 54

44 46 60 46 45 50 46

4 5 0 0 0 0 0

Financing

Occasionally

Frequently

Rarely

Occasionally

Frequently

Weak or Somewhat Weak

Average

Strong or Somewhat Strong

Significantly or Slightly Worse

About the Same

Significantly or Slightly Better

Outlook

Rarely

Market Activity

Number of Responses

ALL Eastern Region King George Lancaster Middlesex Richmond County Westmoreland

Appraisals

1084 42 15 13 12 10 13

Underwriting

Region

Distressed Homes

Significantly or Slightly Lower

ALL Eastern Region King George Lancaster Middlesex Richmond County Westmoreland

Inventory

Number of Responses

Median Sales Price

Region

Customer Traffic - Type

Number of Responses

Market Conditions Foot Traffic to Sales Customer Traffic

1084 42 15 13 12 10 13

30 17 27 23 17 30 31

49 50 67 46 42 40 46

21 33 7 31 42 30 23

29 20 27 15 9 30 31

48 49 67 38 36 40 46

23 32 7 46 55 30 23

23 52 33 62 75 50 46

23 19 27 8 8 30 38

55 29 40 31 17 20 15

10 22 20 15 36 10 15

25 34 33 38 36 40 38

65 44 47 46 27 50 46

15

Table 6: Valley Region Responses (percent of total responses) About the Same

Significantly or Slightly Better

Significantly or Slightly Worse

About the Same

Significantly or Slightly Better

Significantly or Slightly Lower

About the Same

Significantly or Slightly Greater

First-time buyers

Homeowners moving up

Homeowners downsizing

Second-home buyers

ALL Valley Region Augusta Frederick Harrisonburg Page Rockingham Shenandoah Staunton Waynesboro Winchester

Significantly or Slightly Worse

Region

1084 75 25 31 10 10 15 22 17 17 27

12 11 4 13 10 10 20 18 6 6 15

18 20 24 13 40 40 33 23 35 35 11

71 69 72 74 50 50 47 59 59 59 74

18 14 13 7 20 10 20 18 13 13 8

39 43 38 50 50 40 53 41 31 31 46

43 43 50 43 30 50 27 41 56 56 46

12 11 4 13 10 10 20 18 6 6 15

16 18 24 10 40 20 33 27 29 29 12

72 71 72 77 50 70 47 55 65 65 73

52 60 63 65 44 57 54 44 65 65 55

29 18 17 23 22 14 15 17 24 24 23

9 11 13 8 22 14 23 22 12 12 18

10 11 8 4 11 14 8 17 0 0 5

About the Same

Significantly or Slightly Higher

Very or Somewhat Low

About Right

Very or Somewhat High

Not at All

Somewhat

Greatly

Much Too or Somewhat Low

About Right

Much Too or Somewhat High

14 12 16 7 10 10 13 9 18 18 8

27 37 56 23 40 40 53 36 47 47 27

60 51 28 70 50 50 33 55 35 35 65

69 52 44 73 30 40 40 55 35 35 73

16 30 36 17 50 40 47 32 35 35 19

15 18 20 10 20 20 13 14 29 29 8

27 14 8 19 10 10 13 14 0 0 15

55 70 67 68 70 80 73 68 69 69 74

18 16 25 13 20 10 13 18 31 31 11

53 59 63 65 60 80 60 73 56 56 67

44 38 38 32 40 20 40 23 44 44 30

4 3 0 3 0 0 0 5 0 0 4

Financing

Frequently

Rarely

Occasionally

Frequently

Weak or Somewhat Weak

Average

Strong or Somewhat Strong

Significantly or Slightly Worse

About the Same

Significantly or Slightly Better

75 25 31 10 10 15 22 17 17 27

Outlook

Occasionally

Number of Responses 1084

Market Activity

Rarely

ALL Valley Region Augusta Frederick Harrisonburg Page Rockingham Shenandoah Staunton Waynesboro Winchester

Appraisals

1084 75 25 31 10 10 15 22 17 17 27

Underwriting

Region

Distressed Homes

Significantly or Slightly Lower

ALL Valley Region Augusta Frederick Harrisonburg Page Rockingham Shenandoah Staunton Waynesboro Winchester

Inventory

Number of Responses

Median Sales Price

Region

Customer Traffic - Type

Number of Responses

Market Conditions Foot Traffic to Sales Customer Traffic

30 21 63 65 60 80 60 73 56 56 67

49 53 38 32 40 20 40 23 44 44 30

21 26 0 3 0 0 0 5 0 0 4

29 19 24 13 50 20 40 14 29 29 12

48 56 44 61 20 60 33 64 41 41 62

23 25 32 26 30 20 27 23 29 29 27

23 25 17 17 20 20 20 23 6 6 19

23 32 50 63 50 60 53 55 63 63 65

55 44 33 20 30 20 27 23 31 31 15

10 11 24 27 30 30 47 36 24 24 19

25 18 44 27 30 30 27 18 41 41 27

65 71 32 47 40 40 27 45 35 35 54

16

Table 7: Central Region Responses

(percent of total responses)

Significantly or Slightly Worse

About the Same

Significantly or Slightly Better

Significantly or Slightly Lower

About the Same

Significantly or Slightly Greater

First-time buyers

Homeowners moving up

Homeowners downsizing

Second-home buyers

255 135 48 45 82 123 33 46 38 51 94

Significantly or Slightly Better

1084

About the Same

ALL Central Region Chesterfield Colonial Heights Goochland Hanover Henrico Hopewell Louisa Petersburg Powhatan Richmond City

12 11 5 4 0 5 7 3 9 8 2 7

18 19 17 23 16 20 18 15 24 21 20 16

71 71 78 73 84 76 76 82 67 71 78 77

18 16 12 15 11 11 14 15 9 16 8 12

39 39 37 30 31 39 38 39 53 39 39 38

43 46 51 55 58 50 48 45 38 45 53 50

12 13 7 8 9 9 11 6 11 11 6 9

16 16 14 13 9 16 14 12 20 13 18 15

72 71 79 79 82 76 75 82 70 76 76 77

52 49 58 64 56 58 55 67 28 71 49 53

29 29 24 17 23 26 25 19 44 13 34 27

9 12 11 7 9 12 11 4 10 3 11 12

10 11 8 12 12 4 9 11 18 13 6 8

Very or Somewhat Low

About Right

Very or Somewhat High

Not at All

Somewhat

Greatly

Much Too or Somewhat Low

About Right

Much Too or Somewhat High

14 16 14 17 11 15 14 12 13 16 12 11

27 32 31 35 38 35 33 33 37 32 39 33

60 53 55 48 51 50 53 55 50 53 49 56

69 63 67 52 69 62 67 58 59 58 59 68

16 19 19 23 16 21 20 24 22 21 25 22

15 18 15 25 16 17 13 18 20 21 16 11

27 18 17 9 22 12 16 9 15 8 18 21

55 56 55 51 60 60 58 55 67 55 65 59

18 25 28 40 18 27 26 36 17 37 18 21

53 58 56 46 56 60 59 42 67 45 47 49

44 39 41 50 44 39 39 55 31 50 49 49

4 2 3 4 0 1 2 3 2 5 4 2

Rarely

Occasionally

Frequently

Weak or Somewhat Weak

Average

Strong or Somewhat Strong

Significantly or Slightly Worse

About the Same

Significantly or Slightly Better

Outlook

Frequently

255 135 48 45 82 123 33 46 38 51 94

Market Activity

Occasionally

1084

Financing

Rarely

ALL Central Region Chesterfield Colonial Heights Goochland Hanover Henrico Hopewell Louisa Petersburg Powhatan Richmond City

Number of Responses

Underwriting

Region

Appraisals

Significantly or Slightly Higher

255 135 48 45 82 123 33 46 38 51 94

Distressed Homes

About the Same

1084

Inventory

Significantly or Slightly Lower

ALL Central Region Chesterfield Colonial Heights Goochland Hanover Henrico Hopewell Louisa Petersburg Powhatan Richmond City

Number of Responses

Median Sales Price

Region

Customer Traffic - Type

Significantly or Slightly Worse

Region

Number of Responses

Market Conditions Foot Traffic to Sales Customer Traffic

30 26 26 23 27 26 25 25 20 24 27 26

49 56 50 42 51 52 52 44 69 41 49 51

21 19 23 35 22 22 22 31 11 35 24 23

29 22 27 17 27 22 28 19 17 22 29 27

48 57 48 49 42 54 48 47 63 41 45 48

23 21 24 34 31 24 25 34 20 38 25 25

23 29 24 25 22 23 28 21 35 24 29 26

23 22 25 21 29 24 23 21 28 21 22 28

55 49 51 54 49 52 49 58 37 55 49 46

10 12 8 6 7 4 11 9 13 11 4 6

25 27 25 25 25 30 27 24 30 26 38 29

65 61 66 69 68 67 62 67 57 63 58 65

17

Table 8: Hampton Roads Region Responses

(percent of total responses)

Significantly or Slightly Worse

About the Same

Significantly or Slightly Better

Significantly or Slightly Worse

About the Same

Significantly or Slightly Better

Significantly or Slightly Lower

About the Same

Significantly or Slightly Greater

First-time buyers

Homeowners moving up

Homeowners downsizing

Second-home buyers

Customer Traffic - Type

Number of Responses

Market Conditions Foot Traffic to Sales Customer Traffic

1084 ALL Hampton Roads Region 241 132 Chesapeake 99 Hampton 51 Hampton Roads 95 Newport News 119 Norfolk 87 Portsmouth 107 Suffolk 138 Tidewater 74 Virginia Beach 69 Williamsburg

12 10 9 9 6 11 9 9 11 11 8 9

18 18 16 18 18 16 15 15 14 14 18 16

71 72 75 73 76 73 75 76 74 75 74 75

18 16 17 19 8 18 17 16 17 18 11 18

39 41 41 33 36 33 41 37 40 45 34 32

43 42 42 48 56 49 42 47 43 38 55 50

12 12 11 12 10 14 11 13 13 12 12 12

16 17 18 17 14 14 19 14 14 17 14 13

72 71 70 71 76 73 70 74 73 71 74 75

52 61 72 72 51 71 71 75 73 67 49 59

29 26 23 24 28 22 23 20 19 26 33 28

9 9 4 3 21 3 6 5 7 5 15 8

10 4 1 1 0 3 0 0 1 2 3 5

Region

Significantly or Slightly Higher

Very or Somewhat Low

About Right

Very or Somewhat High

Not at All

Somewhat

Greatly

Much Too or Somewhat Low

About Right

Much Too or Somewhat High

Appraisals

About the Same

Distressed Homes

Significantly or Slightly Lower

Inventory

Number of Responses

Median Sales Price

1084 ALL Hampton Roads Region 241 132 Chesapeake 99 Hampton 51 Hampton Roads 95 Newport News 119 Norfolk 87 Portsmouth 107 Suffolk 138 Tidewater 74 Virginia Beach 69 Williamsburg

14 20 20 28 20 26 18 22 20 21 23 28

27 31 28 28 34 26 29 33 32 25 26 26

60 49 52 44 46 47 53 45 49 54 51 46

69 55 64 51 51 52 62 60 61 62 51 55

16 26 22 30 27 29 24 26 24 25 22 25

15 19 14 20 22 19 14 14 15 13 26 19

27 9 9 12 12 13 6 9 12 9 12 10

55 61 60 54 68 55 61 60 57 60 64 60

18 30 31 34 20 33 34 31 31 31 23 29

53 53 46 57 56 55 49 44 49 47 58 56

44 45 50 40 42 41 48 52 48 50 41 41

4 3 4 3 2 4 3 5 4 3 1 3

Region

Financing

Occasionally

Frequently

Rarely

Occasionally

Frequently

Weak or Somewhat Weak

Average

Strong or Somewhat Strong

Significantly or Slightly Worse

About the Same

Significantly or Slightly Better

Outlook

Rarely

Market Activity

Number of Responses

Underwriting

1084 ALL Hampton Roads Region 241 132 Chesapeake 99 Hampton 51 Hampton Roads 95 Newport News 119 Norfolk 87 Portsmouth 107 Suffolk 138 Tidewater 74 Virginia Beach 69 Williamsburg

30 27 46 57 56 55 49 44 49 47 58 56

49 47 50 40 42 41 48 52 48 50 41 41

21 26 4 3 2 4 3 5 4 3 1 3

29 22 29 27 18 26 27 33 29 31 21 24

48 51 45 46 55 48 47 40 50 43 51 48

23 27 25 27 27 27 26 27 22 26 28 28

23 21 24 22 28 22 20 22 23 23 26 25

23 27 48 50 48 51 52 50 54 49 47 47

55 52 27 28 24 27 28 28 24 28 27 28

10 8 16 21 12 21 20 19 23 17 16 24

25 27 28 27 22 28 25 25 25 25 29 25

65 65 56 52 66 51 56 56 52 58 55 51

Region

18

Table 9: West Central Region Responses (percent of total responses)

Significantly or Slightly Worse

About the Same

Significantly or Slightly Better

Significantly or Slightly Lower

About the Same

Significantly or Slightly Greater

First-time buyers

Homeowners moving up

Homeowners downsizing

Second-home buyers

81 23 24 48 23 23 27 20 25 28 24

Significantly or Slightly Better

1084

About the Same

ALL West Central Region Amherst Bedford City Bedford County Botetourt Campbell Lynchburg Montgomery Roanoke City Roanoke County Salem

12 14 9 13 13 13 13 15 5 8 7 8

18 16 13 8 13 17 9 11 5 12 18 13

71 70 78 79 75 70 78 74 90 80 75 79

18 23 23 23 24 18 19 20 21 17 19 17

39 40 50 41 48 45 52 52 32 38 37 39

43 37 27 36 28 36 29 28 47 46 44 43

12 16 9 13 13 13 13 15 5 8 7 8

16 22 9 8 17 26 4 7 25 24 29 25

72 63 83 79 71 61 83 78 70 68 64 67

52 47 53 65 41 47 67 65 65 50 50 53

29 23 27 18 26 29 20 18 18 28 25 29

9 6 7 0 9 6 0 6 6 6 5 6

10 23 13 18 24 18 13 12 12 17 20 12

About the Same

Significantly or Slightly Higher

Very or Somewhat Low

About Right

Very or Somewhat High

Not at All

Somewhat

Greatly

Much Too or Somewhat Low

About Right

Much Too or Somewhat High

14 20 18 17 17 17 18 19 0 12 14 8

27 50 50 54 53 57 45 46 65 52 54 54

60 30 32 29 30 26 36 35 35 36 32 38

69 32 29 39 28 30 29 24 45 36 32 38

16 30 33 35 33 39 38 36 40 36 39 33

15 38 38 26 39 30 33 40 15 28 29 29

27 21 14 22 23 17 23 23 30 20 18 21

55 59 64 57 53 52 59 50 70 56 57 54

18 21 23 22 23 30 18 27 0 24 25 25

53 46 39 50 38 57 30 30 55 48 54 50

44 48 57 38 54 35 61 56 40 44 39 42

4 6 4 13 8 9 9 15 5 8 7 8

Financing

Frequently

Rarely

Occasionally

Frequently

Weak or Somewhat Weak

Average

Strong or Somewhat Strong

Significantly or Slightly Worse

About the Same

Significantly or Slightly Better

81 23 24 48 23 23 27 20 25 28 24

Outlook

Occasionally

Number of Responses 1084

Market Activity

Rarely

ALL West Central Region Amherst Bedford City Bedford County Botetourt Campbell Lynchburg Montgomery Roanoke City Roanoke County Salem

Appraisals

1084 81 23 24 48 23 23 27 20 25 28 24

Underwriting

Region

Distressed Homes

Significantly or Slightly Lower

ALL West Central Region Amherst Bedford City Bedford County Botetourt Campbell Lynchburg Montgomery Roanoke City Roanoke County Salem

Inventory

Number of Responses

Median Sales Price

Region

Customer Traffic - Type

Significantly or Slightly Worse

Region

Number of Responses

Market Conditions Foot Traffic to Sales Customer Traffic

30 26 39 50 38 57 30 30 55 48 54 50

49 51 57 38 54 35 61 56 40 44 39 42

21 23 4 13 8 9 9 15 5 8 7 8

29 21 22 21 21 13 26 22 25 20 21 21

48 56 57 54 56 57 57 52 50 56 54 54

23 23 22 25 23 30 17 26 25 24 25 25

23 30 9 21 17 17 17 15 26 20 21 21

23 17 61 46 54 39 57 52 58 48 46 46

55 52 30 33 29 43 26 33 16 32 32 33

10 13 17 30 36 50 22 26 20 46 41 48

25 22 4 9 11 14 13 15 30 13 15 13

65 65 78 61 53 36 65 59 50 42 44 39

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Table 10: Southside and Southwest Region Responses (percent of total responses)

Significantly or Slightly Worse

About the Same

Significantly or Slightly Better

Significantly or Slightly Worse

About the Same

Significantly or Slightly Better

Significantly or Slightly Lower

About the Same

Significantly or Slightly Greater

First-time buyers

Homeowners moving up

Homeowners downsizing

Second-home buyers

Customer Traffic - Type

Number of Responses

Market Conditions Foot Traffic to Sales Customer Traffic

ALL Southside Region Pittsylvania

1084 23 12

12 9 0

18 22 33

71 70 67

18 26 33

39 30 17

43 43 50

12 9 0

16 17 25

72 74 75

52 55 64

29 15 18

9 10 9

10 20 9

Southwest Region Washington

27 9

15 0

19 22

65 78

24 0

32 63

44 38

27 0

8 22

65 78

65 63

10 13

5 0

20 25

Region

Significantly or Slightly Higher

Very or Somewhat Low

About Right

Very or Somewhat High

Not at All

Somewhat

Greatly

Much Too or Somewhat Low

About Right

Much Too or Somewhat High

Appraisals

About the Same

Distressed Homes

Significantly or Slightly Lower

Inventory

Number of Responses

Median Sales Price

ALL Southside Region Pittsylvania

1084 23 12

14 22 17

27 39 42

60 39 42

69 22 25

16 17 17

15 61 58

27 13 17

55 65 67

18 22 17

53 48 33

44 48 58

4 4 8

Southwest Region Washington

27 9

19 0

38 67

42 33

42 56

31 11

27 33

12 13

72 88

16 0

62 67

38 33

0 0

Region

Financing

Occasionally

Frequently

Rarely

Occasionally

Frequently

Weak or Somewhat Weak

Average

Strong or Somewhat Strong

Significantly or Slightly Worse

About the Same

Significantly or Slightly Better

Outlook

Rarely

Market Activity

Number of Responses

Underwriting

ALL Southside Region Pittsylvania

1084 23 12

30 13 33

49 43 58

21 43 8

29 9 8

48 57 67

23 35 25

23 52 8

23 17 67

55 30 25

10 22 42

25 30 25

65 48 33

Southwest Region Washington

27 9

8 67

54 33

38 0

8 11

46 56

46 33

38 11

31 67

31 22

15 11

31 56

54 33

Region

20

Appendix Survey Questions with Responses 1. How were market conditions for your business in the first quarter of 2013 compared to the first quarter of 2012?

Significantly Worse 4.1% Slightly Worse 7.5% About the Same 17.5% Slightly Better 43.9% Significantly Better 27.0%

2. How was customer traffic in the first quarter of 2013 compared to the first quarter of 2012?

Significantly Lower 4.4% Slightly Less 7.8% About the Same 16.2% Slightly Greater 45.5% Significantly Greater 26.2%

3. What type of buyer made up most of your customer traffic in the first quarter of 2013?

First time Buyers 52.3% Homeowners Moving Up 29.2% Homeowners Downsizing 8.9% Second-home Buyers 9.6%

4. What was the median sales price in your market in the first quarter of 2013 compared to the first quarter of 2012?

Significantly Lower 3.5% Slightly Lower 10.3% About the Same 26.6% Slightly Higher 52.2% Significantly Higher 7.4%

5. What was the sales price range for your typical client in the first quarter of 2013? < $100k 5.7% $100k to $199k 26.5% $200k to $299k 25.1% $300k to $399k 16.6% $400k to $499k 11.6% $500k to $749k 9.3% $750k to $999k 3.1% $1 million to $1.49 million 1.4% $1.5 million to $1.999 million 0.4% $2 million+ 0.4%

6. How was the conversion from foot traffic to closed sales in the first quarter of 2013 compared to the first quarter of 2012?

Significantly Worse 5.1% Slightly Worse 13.2% About the Same 38.6% Slightly Better 35.3% Significantly Better 7.6%

7. How would you characterize the inventory of homes on the market in your area in the first quarter of 2013?

Very Low 29.9% Somewhat Low 39.2% About Right 16.3% Somewhat High 11.7% Very High 2.9%

8. To what extent did distressed homes for sale negatively impact housing prices in your area in the first quarter of 2013?

Not at All 27.1% Somewhat 54.8% Greatly 18.1%

9. How would you characterize appraisals in the first quarter of 2013?

Much Too Low 9.6% Somewhat Low 43.1% About Right 43.6% Somewhat High 3.4% Much Too High 0.4%

10. How often did tighter underwriting prevent a sale in the first quarter of 2013?

Rarely 9.8% Occasionally 50.8% Frequently 39.4%

11. How often did clients have difficulty getting mortgage financing in the first quarter of 2013?

Rarely 28.6% Occasionally 48.3% Frequently 23.1%

12. How would you characterize market activity in April 2013?

Weak 5.1% Somewhat Weak 17.7% Average 22.6% Somewhat Strong 41.1% Strong 13.6%

13. How has your outlook for the housing market changed since the beginning of the year?

Significantly Worse 2.1% Slightly Worse 8.2% About the Same 25.0% Slightly Better 47.8% Significantly Better 16.9%

21

Data Note It is important to note that the survey results are not seasonally adjusted, which will affect their interpretation. For example, housing activity tends to be weaker in the winter months because of bad weather. A slowdown in housing activity in winter months, then, could be either due to real economic circumstances or could be due to normal, seasonal fluctuation. Looking at the Realtor survey responses, it is impossible to know the extent to which respondents are implicitly adjusting their responses to account for seasonal factors.

22