2011 2014
second second SECOND Quarter QUARTER Quarter
VIRGINIA VIRGINIA Home HomeSAleS SAleSRepoRt RepoRt
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
速 速 Published by by Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate for for Published Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate realreal estate professionals andand property owners in Virginia. estate professionals property owners in Virginia.
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q2
Virginia Month-to-Month Sales Trends Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2011
2012
2013
2014
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0 January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November December
Month
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2011
4,728
5,116
7,145
7,311
8,391
9,223
7,970
8,136
6,916
6,263
6,070
6,758
2012
5,068
5,775
7,213
7,698
9,064
9,740
8,664
9,026
7,213
7,261
7,400
6,838
2013
5,528
5,911
7,456
8,660
10,454
10,763
10,344
10,104
8,138
7,887
6,882
7,356
2014
5,333
5,595
6,910
8,402
9,555
10,291
Sales increased from 9,555 in May to 10,291 in June (7.7%). June is typically the peak of the spring and summer selling seasons, therefore we expect sales to begin to decrease in July. Sales in the first half of 2014 have been consistently lower than sales in 2013, but generally higher than sales in 2011 and 2012. This trend indicates that the housing market has entered a period of slow growth and for the near term this trend may represent the “new normal.” Decreasing mortgage rates may provide a shortterm boost to the market.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 2
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q2
Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
35,000
29,962
30,000
28,755
-5.72%
26,502
YOY
24,911
24,906
25,000
28,248
23,001
22,478 21,509
20,000
19,099 18,056
18,910
18,031
17,105
15,000
10,000
2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 Quarter
The pace of home sales was 5.72% lower in the second quarter of 2014 compared to the second quarter of 2013. Virginia typically experiences the highest number of sales in the second quarter, but the third quarter market can show similar strength. Decreasing unemployment rates throughout the country coupled with lower mortgage rates may produce a relatively strong third quarter.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 3
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q2
Virginia Annualized Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
110,000
99,136
100,000
100,105
99,226
98,031
95,292 90,978 90,000 84,194
83,570
84,111
85,062
86,658
91,832
88,568
81,367 80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 Quarter
Each data point on the graph above includes 12 months of home sales data ending in the quarter shown. For example, the 2014-Q2 figure (98,031 sales) includes home sales from July 2013 through June 2014. Using this rolling sum of home sales can provide a clearer indicator of long-term trends in Virginia’s housing market. Our annualized sales metric decreased by 1,195 sales from 2014-Q1 to 2014-Q2, reaffirming evidence that the market recovery is slowing and may have plateaued. As 2014 sales have been consistently lower than sales in 2013, we do not expect to see growth in this metric through the remaining quarters of 2014.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 4
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q2
Regional Changes in Sales 2013-Q2 vs. 2014-Q2 Units
Northern Virginia -9.7% Central Valley +1.7%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg -2.3% Southwest Virginia -9.4%
Central Virginia -1.9%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay -2.9%
Southside Virginia -2.3%
Region
2013-Q2
2014-Q2
Change
Central Valley
1,594
1,621
1.7%
Central Virginia
4,687
4,597
-1.9%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay
6,442
6,253
-2.9%
Northern Virginia
14,194
12,823
-9.7%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
2,240
2,188
-2.3%
Southside Virginia
440
430
-2.3%
Southwest Virginia
360
326
-9.4%
All of Virginia
29,957
28,238
-5.7%
Almost every region of the state experienced a slower pace of sales compared to the second quarter of 2013, with exception of the Central Valley. Most regions experienced only small changes, between 1% and 3%. Northern Virginia and Southwest Virginia experienced the most dramatic year-over-year change, a 9.7% and 9.4% decrease in sales respectively.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 5
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q2
Virginia Median Residential Sales Price Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
$267,000 $235,000
$249,000
$254,000
$269,900 $233,000
$241,000
$248,000
$249,500 $215,000
$220,000
$210,000
Median Sales Price
$250,000
$235,000
$232,694
$300,000
$200,000
-1.07%
$150,000
+14.7%
$100,000 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 Quarter
The median sales price in Virginia increased 1% over the past year to $267,000. Looking at the longer term trend, the median sales price in Virginia has increased by 14.7% over 2011-Q2. The median sales price increased substantially from 2014-Q1 to 2014-Q2, exhibiting the typical seasonal trend. We can expect prices to decrease next quarter, but the degree to which prices decrease will depend on late summer demand. If interest rates remain very low and unemployment decreases, prices may remain fairly steady through the third quarter.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 6
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q2
Regional Changes in Median Sales Prices 2013-Q2 vs. 2014-Q2
Northern Virginia 0% Central Valley +2.3%
Central Virginia +4.0%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg -2.4% Southwest Virginia -0.9%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay +1.4%
Southside Virginia -2.4%
Region
2013-Q2
2014-Q2
Change
Central Valley
$220,000
$225,000
2.3%
Central Virginia
$200,000
$208,000
4.0%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay
$211,565
$214,500
1.4%
Northern Virginia
$385,000
$385,000
0.0%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
$165,000
$161,000
-2.4%
Southside Virginia
$82,000
$80,000
-2.4%
Southwest Virginia
$115,000
$114,000
-0.9%
All of Virginia
$269,900
$267,000
1.1%
Moderate year-over-year change in sales prices was experienced consistently throughout most of the state. Southwest Virginia, the Roanoke/Lynchburg/Blacksburg region, and Southside Virginia all experienced year-over-year decreases in price likely related to decreased demand in these regions, and possibly related to an influx of lower-priced homes available due to increased REO sales. The Central Valley, Central Virginia, and the Hampton Roads/Chesapeake Bay regions experienced increases in median price. Northern Virginia experienced no year-over-year change in median price.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 7
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q2
Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Volume ($M) Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
11,000
9,913
10,000
9,308
Millions of Dollars of Residential Sales
9,000
9,340
-5.8% YOY
8,197 8,000
7,684 7,307 6,936
6,789
7,000
6,446
6,000
5,498
5,275 5,000
5,326
4,866 4,503
4,000
3,000
2,000
2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 Quarter
This graph illustrates the dollar value of real estate sold (in millions) during each quarter over the past three years. The volume of real estate sold in the second quarter of 2014 ($9.3B) decreased 5.78% from the second quarter of 2013 ($9.9B) primarily due to a slower pace of sales. This quarter’s median sales price was only slightly lower than the median price in the second quarter of 2013.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 8
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q2
Virginia Price Distribution Of Residential Home Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2013-Q2 53 40
$2M +
-25%
91 104
$1.5M - $2M
14% 438 450
$1M - $1.5M
3% 1,017 1,030
$750K - $1M
Price Range
2014-Q2
1% 3,648
$500K - $750K
3,202 3,041 2,823
$400K - $500K
-12%
-7% 4,733 4,441
$300K - $400K
-6% 6,708 6,551
$200K - $300K
-2% 7,224
$100K - $200K
6,791 3,010 2,816
0 - $100K 0
500
-6%
-6%
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
There were fewer sales of homes costing less than $500K and more than $2M in this quarter than in the second quarter of 2013. Sales increased 1% in the $750K-1M range, 3% in the $1M-1.5M range and 14% in the $1.5M-2M range. Even though these increases represent a relatively small number of sales, the market for homes in these ranges continues to expand despite a plateau of overall sales. The decrease in year-over-year sales was most substantial in the $2M+ price range (25%). Since this price range always contains a very small number of sales, drastic fluctuations are normal. Nonetheless, there have been year-over-year decreases in this category for two consecutive quarters. Decreases in the remaining ranges were moderate.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 9
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q2
Virginia Average Days On Market Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
120
104 100
100 94
103
93 85
84
88
92
91 80
Average Days On Market
80 71
73
71
+3%YOY
60
40
20
0
2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 Quarter
Days on the market remain low, but increased 3% year-over-year. Time on the market decreased substantially from the first quarter to the second, because Virginia usually experiences the least market activity in the first quarter while the market’s peak is in the second quarter. The market typically remains very active throughout summer, resulting in similarly few days on the market in the third quarter.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 10
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q2
Regional Changes in Foreclosures 2014-Q1 vs. 2014-Q2
Northern Virginia -6% Central Valley 5%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg 18% Southwest Virginia 133%
Central Virginia -20%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay 2%
Southside Virginia 86%
Region
2014-Q1
2014-Q2
Change
Central Valley
38
40
5%
Central Virginia
297
238
-20%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay
479
488
2%
Northern Virginia
486
459
-6%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
89
105
18%
Southside Virginia
21
39
86%
Southwest Virginia
12
28
133%
All of Virginia
1,422
1,397
-2%
Many areas of Virginia continued to experience increases in foreclosures in the second quarter of 2014. The Central Valley, the Hampton Roads/Chesapeake Bay region, the Roanoke/Lynchburg/Blacksburg region, and Southside have all experienced increases in foreclosures in the previous two quarters. Increases in foreclosures in Southside and Southwest Virginia seem particularly drastic because the foreclosure numbers in those areas are so small. Compared to the first quarter, there were 16 more foreclosures in Southwest Virginia, 18 more in Southside, and 16 more in the Roanoke/Lynchburg/ Blacksburg region. Only Central and Northern Virginia experienced decreases in foreclosures.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 11
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q2
Monthly Residential Sales VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales)
UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales) 600,000
16,000 14,000
455,000
417,000
12,000 10,000 8,000
400,000 10,483
9,555
6,000
300,000 200,000
4,000
100,000
2,000 0
500,000
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14 (p)
0
The pace of Virginia home sales tracks the United States sales pace fairly closely and has continued to do so throughout 2014. Sales in the United States as a whole and in Virginia have increased steadily since January. Virginia’s pace increased slightly faster earlier in the year, but has slowed relative the United States as a whole in recent months.
Monthly Residential Median Sales Price VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales) $300,000
UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales)
$268,000
$263,000
$250,000
$250,000 $200,000
$300,000
$213,600
$203,600
$200,000
$150,000
$150,000
$100,000
$100,000
$50,000
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13 Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13 Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14 (p)
$50,000
Changes in median sale price in Virginia also consistently track changes in price in the United States as a whole. Median sales price is consistently higher in Virginia, but the difference between prices in Virginia and the United States as a whole has narrowed in 2014.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 12
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q2
Virginia Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor & Statistics
7% 7%
6.5%
6.6% 6.2%
6%
5.9%
6.0%
5.9%
6%
5.6%
5.3%
5%
5.5%
5.8% 5.4% 4.9%
5.1%
5% 4%
2011-Q2
2011-Q3
2011-Q4
2012-Q1
2012-Q2
2012-Q3
2012-Q4
2013-Q1
2013-Q2
2013-Q3
2013-Q4
2014-Q1
2014-Q2
2013-Q3 unemployment rate based on preliminary August 2013 data.
Unemployment Rates By State seasonally adjusted, May 2014 (U.S. rate = 6.3 percent)
14.0% and over 12.0% to 13.9% 10.0% to 11.9% 8.0% to 9.9% 6 0% tto 77.9% 6.0% 9% 4.0% to 5.9% SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics
3.9% or below
Virginia’s unemployment rate increased in the second quarter of 2014 to 5.1% in May. Virginia remained at the second lowest level of unemployment in the United States. United States unemployment decreased in June, which indicates that Virginia’s unemployment likely decreased as well (Virginia’s June unemployment rate has not yet been released).
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 13
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q2
Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac
4.8% 4.6%
4.66%
4.4%
4.44%
4.31%
4.2%
4.01%
4.0% 3.8%
3.92%
3.80%
3.6%
4.36%
4.23%
3.69%
3.54%
3.4%
4.30%
3.36%
3.50%
3.2% 3.0%
2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2
Average 15-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac
4.0% 3.8% 3.6% 3.4% 3.2% 3.0% 2.8% 2.6%
3.9% 3.5%
3.5% 3.3%
3.2%
3.4%
3.4%
3.3%
3.0% 2.8%
2.7%
2.7%
2.9%
2.4% 2.2% 2.0%
2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2
Both 30-year and 15-year mortgage interest rates decreased in the second quarter of 2014. As rates have continued to decrease in July, low rates may begin to affect the pace of sales.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 14
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q2
The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the business advocate for real estate professionals in Virginia. VAR represents more than 29,000 REALTORS® active in all phases of real estate brokerage, management, development and appraisal. Our mission is to enhance our membership’s ability to achieve business success. All inquiries regarding this report should be directed to: Stacey Ricks, Chief of Marketing and Communications Virginia Association of REALTORS® 10231 Telegraph Road, Glen Allen, VA 23059 (804) 249-5716 Stacey@VARealtor.com www.VARealtor.com/HomeSales
Economic Regions
Central Valley: Central Virginia:
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay:
Northern Virginia:
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg:
Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City, Highland, Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chesterfield, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan, Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier, Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Bedford City, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke, Roanoke City, Salem City
Southside Virginia:
Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City, Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania
Southwest Virginia:
Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe
Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by R E Stats Inc. All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 15