2011
2014 2011
Quarter Quarter
second second AUGUST
VIRGINIA VIRGINIA Home HomeSAleS SAleSRepoRt RepoRt
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
速 速 Published by by Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate for for Published Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate realreal estate professionals andand property owners in Virginia. estate professionals property owners in Virginia.
Virginia Monthly Home Sales Report
August 2014
August Market Summary Pace and median price decreased in August, resulting in a decrease in total sales volume. Days on the market increased to an average of 74. These trends indicate that the summer selling season has come to an end. We can expect prices and pace to decrease and days on the market to increase through the end of the year. Year-over-year pace and median price also decreased, leading to a decrease in volume, year-over-year. The real estate market has maintained its recovery from the housing crisis, but growth seems slow compared to 2013 when the market experienced substantial clearing, as stable prices and rising interest rates sparked sales. The 2014 real estate market performance reflects the overall slow growth of the economy and continued caution of market participants.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
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Virginia Monthly Home Sales Report
August 2014
Virginia's Monthly Pace of Residential Sales Single Family, Townhomes, Condos 12,000
10,483
10,810 10,389
10,474
10,154
10,001
10,000
9,588 9,197
-9.42% 8,185 Number of Residential Sales
8,000
8,409 7,949 7,559 7,057
6,948
6,000
5,352
5,642
4,000
2,000
0 May-13 Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13 Sep- 13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 (p) (p) (p) (p)
Jan-14 (p)
Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 (p) (p) (p) (p) (p)
Jul-14 (p)
Aug-14 (p)
(p) indicates that this month’s numbers are preliminary. The numbers may change slightly as more data is reported.
Sales continued to decrease in August 2014, similar to market performance in August of 2008 and 2009. Decreases in sales in August are not a consistent trend. Sales have increased in August in 6 of the past 10 years, but decreased in 4 years. The decrease in sales from July to August 2014 is the most substantial decrease that Virginia has experienced in August in the past 10 years (see varbuzz.com for more details). Sales were down 9.42% year-over-year, but remain higher than the years following the burst of the housing bubble in 2007-2008, with the exception of 2013. This year’s pace continues to be more moderate than the pace Virginia experienced in 2013.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
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Virginia Monthly Home Sales Report
August 2014
Virginia Median Residential Sales Price Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
$260,500
$267,500
$279,000
$262,500
$255,000
$242,000
$233,000
$229,000
$250,000
$245,000
$250,000
$250,000
$265,000
$274,900
$268,000
$250,000
$241,350
$230,000
$225,000
$242,350
$248,000
$235,000
$240,000
$250,000
$248,000
$257,241
Median Sales Price
$300,000
$285,000
$350,000
-1.70% $200,000
+5.04%
$150,000
(p) indicates that this month’s numbers are preliminary. The numbers may change slightly as more data is reported.
The median sales price in August 2014 ($260,500) is 1.70% lower than August 2013 ($265,000), but still 5.04% higher than August of 2012 ($248,000). Accounting for seasonal fluctuation, Virginia prices continue to remain stable: median price decreased 2.62% from July to August 2014 compared to 3.60% in 2013 and 3.23% in 2012.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
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Virginia Monthly Home Sales Report
August 2014
Virginia Monthly Residen/al Sales Volume ($M) Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 4,000 3,719 3,500
3,482
3,607 3,463 3,313
3,284 3,112
-8.80%
Millions of Dollars of Residen/al Sales
3,000
2,995
2,694 2,550 2,500
2,455
2,383 2,157
2,087 2,000 1,544
1,627
1,500
1,000
500
0
(p) indicates that this month’s numbers are preliminary. The numbers may change slightly as more data is reported.
Sales volume was 8.80% lower this August than August 2013, due primarily to fewer sales, as prices decreased only 1.7%.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
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Virginia Monthly Home Sales Report
August 2014
Virginia Average Days On Market Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 100 88
90 80
80
81
90
87
90
93
95 86
83
86
82 78 74
73
Average Days On Market
70
87
-16.05%
66
69
74
77
77
76
68
74 68
+8.82%
70 65
60 50 40 30 20 10 0
(p) indicates that this month’s numbers are preliminary. The numbers may change slightly as more data is reported.
Days on the market increased to 74 in August. Increased days on the market is another sign that the summer peak selling season has closed. We can expect days on the market to increase steadily through the start of 2015. Days on the market are 8.82% higher than last August when market inventory was fairly restricted, and 16.05% lower than July 2012 when the market was still relatively sluggish.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
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Virginia Monthly Home Sales Report
August 2014
Virginia Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor & Statistics
5.4%
5.3%
5.1%
4.9%
4.9%
4.9%
5.0%
5.2%
5.4%
5.6%
5.6%
5.8%
5.7%
5.5%
5.3%
5.2%
5.3%
5.6%
5.6%
5.6%
6%
5.7%
5.8%
5.9%
5.9%
7%
6.0%
8%
6.0%
9%
5% 4%
(p) indicates that this month’s numbers are preliminary. The rate is subject possible change and finalization by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Virginia’s unemployment continued to rise in July, generally tracking the trajectory of the United States as a whole. Rising unemployment is likely having a negative effect on the real estate market, as rising unemployment negatively effects consumer confidence.
Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac
4.6% 4.4%
4.46%
4.49%
4.2%
4.46% 4.19%
4.43% 4.30%
4.26%
4.34%
4.34% 4.19%
4.16%
4.13%
4.12%
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
4.0% 3.8% 3.6% 3.4% 3.2% 3.0%
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
Average 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates decreased slightly in August to 4.12%, but rates began to increase in September. Increasing rates may encourage potential buyers to enter the market in an effort to take advantage of low rates, expecting further increases based on Fed reactions to the improved inflation rate and labor market conditions.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
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Virginia Monthly Home Sales Report
August 2014
The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the business advocate for real estate professionals in Virginia. VAR represents more than 29,000 REALTORS® active in all phases of real estate brokerage, management, development and appraisal. Our mission is to enhance our membership’s ability to achieve business success. All inquiries regarding this report should be directed to: Marketing and Communications Virginia Association of REALTORS® 10231 Telegraph Road, Glen Allen, VA 23059 (804) 264-5033 Marketing@VARealtor.com www.VARealtor.com/HomeSales Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by RE Stats Inc. All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
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