2011
2014 2011
Quarter
second second JQuarter U LY
VIRGINIA VIRGINIA Home HomeSAleS SAleSRepoRt RepoRt
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
速 速 Published by by Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate for for Published Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate realreal estate professionals andand property owners in Virginia. estate professionals property owners in Virginia.
Virginia Monthly Home Sales Report
July 2014
Virginia's Monthly Pace of Residential Sales Single Family, Townhomes, Condos
12,000
10,483
10,810 10,389
10,444
10,154
-5.8%
10,000
9,574
8,669 8,185 Number of Residential Sales
8,000
9,791
8,399 7,948
7,558 7,048
6,947
6,000
5,348
5,640
4,000
2,000
0
Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep- 13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 (p) (p) (p) (p) (p) (p) (p) (p) (p) (p) (p)
(p) indicates that this month’s numbers are preliminary. The numbers may change slightly as more data is reported.
Sales decreased 6.25% from June to July. Late summer decreases in sales are typical and will likely continue with more substantial decreases in the fall selling season. Sales were down 5.8% year-overyear. Virginia experienced a substantial market clearing in spring and summer of last year. This year’s pace continues to be more moderate, indicating that the real estate market has most likely established a “new normal.”
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 2
Virginia Monthly Home Sales Report
July 2014
Virginia Median Residential Sales Price Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
$268,000
$279,000
$263,000
$255,000
$242,000
$233,000
$229,000
$250,000
$245,000
$250,000
$250,000
$265,000
$274,900
$268,000
$250,000
$241,350
$230,000
$225,000
$242,350
$248,000
$235,000
$240,000
$248,000
$250,000
$257,241
$258,000
Median Sales Price
$300,000
$285,000
$350,000
-2.51% $200,000
+6.86%
$150,000
(p) indicates that this month’s numbers are preliminary. The numbers may change slightly as more data is reported.
The median sales price in July 2014 ($268,000) is 2.51% lower than July 2013 ($274,900), but still 6.86% higher than July of 2012 ($257,241). Accounting for seasonal fluctuation, Virginia prices continue to remain stable. The median sales price decreased more substantially in July 2014 (3.9%), compared to price changes July 2013 and July 2012. Nonetheless, seasonal decline in prices typically begins in the late summer, so the substantial decrease in July was not unusual.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 3
Virginia Monthly Home Sales Report
July 2014
Virginia Monthly Residential Sales Volume ($M) Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
4,000 3,719 3,482
3,500
3,590
3,463 3,284
3,247
-6.24%
3,107
Millions of Dollars of Residential Sales
3,000 2,712
2,693 2,550
2,500
2,455
2,383 2,156
2,087 2,000 1,543
1,626
1,500
1,000
500
0
Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 (p) (p) (p) (p) (p) (p) (p) (p) (p)
(p) indicates that this month’s numbers are preliminary. The numbers may change slightly as more data is reported.
Sales volume was 6.2% lower this July than July 2013, due to a combination of fewer sales and lower prices. Stable prices and an increase in days on the market indicate that inventory and demand remain in sync. Although the market has entered a period of slow growth, reports of increased builder confidence are a good sign for 2015.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 4
Virginia Monthly Home Sales Report
July 2014
Virginia Average Days On Market Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
100 88
90
80
80
81
90
87
90
93
95 86
83
86
82 78 74
73
Average Days On Market
70
60
87
66
-14.8%
69
74
77
77
76
68
68
70 65
1.4%
50
40
30
20
10
0
(p) indicates that this month’s numbers are preliminary. The numbers may change slightly as more data is reported.
Days on the market increased to 70 in July, 1.4% higher than last July when market inventory was fairly restricted, and 13.6% lower than July 2012 when the market was still relatively sluggish. Increased days on the market is another sign that the summer peak selling season is coming to a close. We can expect days on the market to increase steadily through the start of 2015.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 5
Virginia Monthly Home Sales Report
July 2014
Virginia Unemployment Rate
5.4%
5.3%
5.1%
4.9%
4.9%
4.9%
5.0%
5.2%
5.4%
5.6%
5.6%
5.8%
5.7%
5.5%
5.3%
5.2%
5.3%
5.6%
5.6%
5.6%
5.7%
5.8%
5.9%
5.9%
6.0%
9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4%
6.0%
Source: Bureau of Labor & Statistics
(p) indicates that this month’s numbers are preliminary. The rate is subject possible change and finalization by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Virginia’s unemployment continued to rise in July, generally tracking the trajectory of the United States as a whole. Rising unemployment is likely having a negative effect on the real estate market, as rising unemployment negatively effects consumer confidence.
Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac
4.6% 4.4%
4.37%
4.46%
4.49%
4.2%
4.46% 4.19%
4.43% 4.30%
4.26%
4.34%
4.34% 4.19%
4.16%
4.13%
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
4.0% 3.8% 3.6% 3.4% 3.2% 3.0%
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
Average 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates decreased further in July to 4.13%. Still, the three months of consecutive decreases are not substantial enough to have a discernible affect on the market, especially given rising unemployment.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 6
Virginia Monthly Home Sales Report
July 2014
The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the business advocate for real estate professionals in Virginia. VAR represents more than 29,000 REALTORS® active in all phases of real estate brokerage, management, development and appraisal. Our mission is to enhance our membership’s ability to achieve business success. All inquiries regarding this report should be directed to: Marketing and Communications Virginia Association of REALTORS® 10231 Telegraph Road, Glen Allen, VA 23059 (804) 264-5033 Marketing@VARealtor.com www.VARealtor.com/HomeSales Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by RE Stats Inc. All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 7