2011 2014
second Tsecond HIRD Quarter QUARTER Quarter
VIRGINIA VIRGINIA Home HomeSAleS SAleSRepoRt RepoRt
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
速 速 Published by by Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate for for Published Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate realreal estate professionals andand property owners in Virginia. estate professionals property owners in Virginia.
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q3
Third Quarter Market Summary The third quarter closed with 27,376 sales. Sales continued to decrease in September, but the decrease in sales from 2014-Q2 through 2014-Q3 was more moderate than the decrease through the third quarter in the previous three years. Historic trends suggest that the Virginia real estate market may be more active in the fourth quarter of 2014 than in the previous three years. Nearly every region in the state experienced a decrease in year-over-year sales, with the exception of Central and Southside Virginia. Median price also decreased in September. The third quarter median price was $260,000, 2.36% higher than the median price in the third quarter of 2013. Sales volume decreased year-over-year, likely due to fewer sales because prices remained stable and decreases in sales were experienced among nearly every price category (see page 10). Most of the state experienced a moderate increase or no year-over-year change in median sales price. Only Southwest Virginia experienced year-over-year decrease in median price.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 2
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q3
Virginia Month-to-Month Sales Trends Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2011
2012
2013
2014
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0 January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November December
Month
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2011
4,728
5,116
7,145
7,311
8,391
9,223
7,970
8,136
6,916
6,263
6,070
6,758
2012
5,068
5,775
7,213
7,698
9,064
9,740
8,664
9,026
7,213
7,261
7,400
6,838
2013
5,528
5,911
7,456
8,660
10,454
10,763
10,344
10,104
8,138
7,887
6,882
7,356
2014
5,356
5,642
7,061
8,424
9,600
10,489
10,034
9,296
8,046
Sales continued to decrease in September 2014, but at a more moderate rate than the previous three years. Based on the steady decreases in sales since June we can expect relatively moderate decreases through the end of the year. Sales in the first half of 2014 were consistently lower than sales in 2013, but based on historic trends 2014 may finish with higher sales in the fourth quarter, compared to the previous three years. However, rising unemployment may have some negative effect.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 3
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q3
Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
35,000
29,962
30,000
28,728
-4.71%
26,502 25,000
28,513 27,376
YOY
24,911
24,906 23,001
22,458 21,509
20,000
19,099 18,056
18,910
18,059
15,000
10,000
2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 Quarter
The pace of home sales was 4.71% lower in the third quarter of 2014 compared to the third quarter of 2013. Virginia‘s 2014 sales remain lower than 2013 sales, but well above 2011 and 2012 sales. Note that the decrease in sales from 2014-Q2 to 2014-Q3 was more moderate than the decrease through the third quarter in the previous three years. Falling interest rates for 30-year mortgages may have encouraged sales.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 4
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q3
Virginia Annualized Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
110,000
99,109
100,000
95,292 90,978 90,000
83,570
84,111
85,062
86,658
100,058
99,207
98,079
96,545
91,832
88,568
81,367 80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3
Quarter
Each data point on the graph above includes 12 months of home sales data ending in the quarter shown. For example, the 2014-Q3 figure (96,545 sales) includes home sales from July 2013 through August 2014. Using this rolling sum of home sales can provide a clearer indicator of long-term trends in Virginia’s housing market. Our annualized sales metric decreased by 1,534 sales from 2014-Q2 to 2014-Q3, reaffirming evidence that the market recovery may have plateaued. As 2014 sales have been consistently lower than sales in 2013, we do not expect to see growth in this metric through the remaining quarters of 2014.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 5
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q3
Regional Changes in Sales 2013-Q3 vs. 2014-Q3 Units
Northern Virginia -9.1% Central Valley -1.7%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg -3.3% Southwest Virginia -5.1%
Central Virginia +2.0%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay -2.8%
Southside Virginia +9.4%
Region
2013-Q3
2014-Q3
Change
Central Valley
1,658
1,630
-1.7%
Central Virginia
4,544
4,633
2.0%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay
6,534
6,348
-2.8%
Northern Virginia
12,931
11,756
-9.1%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
2,257
2,183
-3.3%
Southside Virginia
438
479
9.4%
Southwest Virginia
356
338
-5.1%
All of Virginia
28,718
27,367
-4.7%
Almost every region of the state experienced a slower pace of sales compared to the third quarter of 2013, with the exception of the Central and Southside Virginia. The increases in both regions were moderate. Central Virginia experienced a 2% increase. Southside experienced a 9.4% which represents 41 sales. Small changes in sales result in larger percentage changes in regions where there are relatively few sales. Northern Virginia experienced the most significant decrease in sales, while other regions experienced decreases between 1.7% (the Central Valley) and 5.1% (Southwest Virginia).
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 6
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q3
Virginia Median Residential Sales Price Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
$260,000
$267,000 $235,000
$249,000
$254,000
$269,900 $233,000
$241,000
$248,000
$249,500 $220,000
$235,000
$215,000
Median Sales Price
$250,000
$232,694
$300,000
$200,000
+2.36%
$150,000
+10.6%
$100,000 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 Quarter
The median sales price in Virginia increased 2.4% over the past year to $260,000. Looking at the longer term trend, the median sales price in Virginia increased by 10.6% over 2011-Q3. The median sales price decreased from 2014-Q2 to 2014-Q3, exhibiting the typical seasonal trend. We can expect prices to decrease through the fourth quarter.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 7
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q3
Regional Changes in Median Sales Prices 2013-Q3 vs. 2014-Q3
Northern Virginia 0% Central Valley +4.6%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +2.5% Southwest Virginia -7.8%
Central Virginia +2.4%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay 0%
Southside Virginia +2.5%
Region
2013-Q3
2014-Q3
Change
Central Valley
$214,125
$224,000
4.6%
Central Virginia
$205,000
$210,000
2.4%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay
$214,900
$215,000
0.0%
Northern Virginia
$375,000
$375,000
0.0%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
$161,000
$164,950
2.5%
Southside Virginia
$80,000
$82,000
2.5%
Southwest Virginia
$114,950
$106,000
-7.8%
All of Virginia
$254,000
$260,000
2.4%
Most of the state experienced moderate to no year-over-year change in sales prices. Only Southwest Virginia experienced year-over-year decreases in price. The Central Valley experienced a 4.6% increase in median sales price while, Central Virginia, the Roanoke-Lynchburg-Blacksburg region, and Southside all experienced increases in the 2.4-2.5% range. Northern Virginia and the Hampton Roads/Chesapeake Bay regions saw almost no change in median price.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 8
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q3
Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Volume ($M) Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
11,000
9913
10,000
9436
9297
8824
Millions of Dollars of Residential Sales
9,000
8197 8,000
-5.1% YOY
7684 7307
7,000
6926
6789 6446
6,000
5498
5275 5,000
5332
4866
4,000
3,000
2,000
2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 Quarter
This graph illustrates the dollar value of real estate sold (in millions) during each quarter over the past three years. The volume of real estate sold in the third quarter of 2014 ($8.8B) is 5.1% lower than the third quarter of 2013 ($9.2B). This quarter’s median sales price was higher than the median price in the third quarter of 2013, so the decrease in volume is most likely due to fewer sales in the third quarter of 2014.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 9
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q3
Virginia Price Distribution Of Residential Home Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2014-Q3 $2M + $1.5M - $2M
52 43
21%
104 80
30% 377 398
$1M - $1.5M
Price Range
-5% 804 926
$750K - $1M
2013-Q3
-13% 2,984 3,114
$500K - $750K
2,639 2,773
$400K - $500K
-4%
-5% 4,321 4,517
$300K - $400K
-4% 6,516 6,438
$200K - $300K
1% 6,916 7,090
$100K - $200K 2,663 2,892
0 - $100K 0
500
-2%
-8%
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
There were fewer sales in nearly every price category in the third quarter of 2014 compared to the third quarter of 2013. There was an increase in sales of homes costing more than 1.5M and a slight, 1%, increase in sales in the $200K-$300K range. Note that relatively dramatic shifts in percent change in sales in the 1.5M+ categories are typical because there are so few sales in those categories. Decreases in sales ranged from 2% in the $100K-$200K range to 13% in the $750K-$1M range.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 10
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q3
Virginia Average Days On Market Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
120
100
100 94
103
93 85
88
92
91
84 80
Average Days On Market
80 71
73
73
2014-Q2
2014-Q3
71
+2.8%YOY
60
40
20
0
2011-Q2
2011-Q3
2011-Q4
2012-Q1
2012-Q2
2012-Q3
2012-Q4 2013-Q1 Quarter
2013-Q2
2013-Q3
2013-Q4
2014-Q1
Days on the market remain low, but increased 2.8% year-over-year. The second and third quarters are typically the most active, so we can expect to see days on the market increase through the end of the year and into the first quarter of 2015.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 11
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q3
Regional Changes in Foreclosures 2014-Q2 vs. 2014-Q3
Northern Virginia -36% Central Valley -43%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +36% Southwest Virginia -50%
Central Virginia -13%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay -17%
Southside Virginia -59%
Region
2014-Q2
2014-Q3
Change
Central Valley
40
23
-43%
Central Virginia
238
207
-13%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay
488
405
-17%
Northern Virginia
459
295
-36%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
105
143
36%
Southside Virginia
39
16
-59%
Southwest Virginia
28
14
-50%
All of Virginia
1,397
1,103
-21%
Virginia experienced a 21% decrease in foreclosures in the third quarter of 2014. Only the RoanokeLynchburg-Blacksburg region experienced an increase in foreclosures, 38 more foreclosures in the third quarter of 2014 than in the second quarter. Other regions experienced declines in foreclosures ranging from 13% in Central Virginia to 59% in Southside Virginia. Increasing unemployment may lead to more foreclosures in the fourth quarter.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 12
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q3
Monthly Residential Sales VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales)
UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales) 600,000
16,000 14,000
457,000
423,000
12,000 10,000 8,000
400,000 10,154
9,296
6,000
300,000 200,000
4,000
100,000
2,000 0
500,000
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14 (p)
0
The pace of Virginia home sales tracks the United States sales pace fairly closely and has continued to do so throughout 2014. Sales in the United States as a whole and in Virginia began to decrease in July. Virginia’s pace decreased slightly faster in August compared to the United States as a whole.
Monthly Residential Median Sales Price VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales)
$300,000
UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales)
$265,000
$260,000
$250,000
$200,000
$300,000 $250,000
$220,600
$209,700
$200,000
$150,000
$150,000
$100,000
$100,000
$50,000
Aug-13 Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13 Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14 (p)
$50,000
Changes in median sale price in Virginia also consistently track changes in price in the United States as a whole. Median sales price is consistently higher in Virginia, but the difference between prices in Virginia and the United States as a whole has narrowed in 2014, especially in recent months.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 13
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q3
Virginia Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
7% 7%
6.6% 6.2%
6%
5.9%
6.0%
5.9%
6%
5.6%
5%
5.3%
5.5%
5.8%
5.6%
5.4% 4.9%
5.1%
5% 4%
2011-Q3
2011-Q4
2012-Q1
2012-Q2
2012-Q3
2012-Q4
2013-Q1
2013-Q2
2013-Q3
2013-Q4
2014-Q1
2014-Q2
2014-Q3
2014-Q3 unemployment rate based on preliminary August 2014 data.
Unemployment Rates By State seasonally adjusted, August 2014 (U.S. rate = 6.1 percent)
14.0% and over 12.0% to 13.9% 10.0% to 11.9% 8.0% to 9.9% 6 0% tto 77.9% 6.0% 9% 4.0% to 5.9% SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics
3.9% or below
Virginia’s unemployment rate has steadily increased from a low of 4.9% in the first quarter of 2014. Virginia maintained the second lowest level of unemployment in the United States in August, while the US unemployment rate rose to 6.1%.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 14
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q3
Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac
4.6%
4.4% 4.2%
4.44%
4.31%
4.30% 4.01%
4.0% 3.8%
3.92%
3.80%
3.6%
4.36%
4.23%
4.14%
3.69% 3.54%
3.4%
3.50% 3.36%
3.2% 3.0%
2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3
Average 15-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac
3.6% 3.4% 3.2% 3.0% 2.8% 2.6%
3.5%
3.5% 3.3%
3.4% 3.2%
3.4%
3.3%
3.3%
3.0% 2.8% 2.7%
2.7%
2.9%
2.4% 2.2% 2.0%
2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3
30-year mortgage rates decreased from 4.23% to 4.14% in the third quarter of 2014. 15-year mortgage interest rates remained relatively unchanged in third quarter. Low rates may have tempered the seasonal decline in sales over the third quarter.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 15
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2014-Q3
The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the business advocate for real estate professionals in Virginia. VAR represents more than 29,000 REALTORS® active in all phases of real estate brokerage, management, development and appraisal. Our mission is to enhance our membership’s ability to achieve business success. All inquiries regarding this report should be directed to: Marketing and Communications Virginia Association of REALTORS® 10231 Telegraph Road, Glen Allen, VA 23059 (804) 264-5033 Marketing@VARealtor.com www.VARealtor.com/HomeSales
Economic Regions
Central Valley: Central Virginia:
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay:
Northern Virginia:
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg:
Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City, Highland, Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chesterfield, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan, Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier, Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Bedford City, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke, Roanoke City, Salem City
Southside Virginia:
Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City, Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania
Southwest Virginia:
Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe
Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by R E Stats Inc. All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
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