2015-Q1 Virginia Home Sales Report

2011 2015

QUARTER Quarter

second second FQuarter IRST

VIRGINIA VIRGINIA HomeSAleS SAleSRepoRt RepoRt Home

Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

速 速 Published Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate Published by by Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate for for estate professionals property owners in Virginia. realreal estate professionals andand property owners in Virginia.

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) publishes monthly and quarterly home sales reports to provide our members, the media and real estate-related industries with current data. The report data comes from a variety of sources and is analyzed by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech. All data may be used with citation to the proprietary owner, the Virginia Association of REALTORS®.

The data presented is based on specific economic regions comprised of counties and independent cities in Virginia, as detailed in the map below. However, it should be noted that these regions do not necessarily align with the counties and cities that comprise the 27 local REALTOR® associations in Virginia. For example, the economic region defined as Northern Virginia encompasses more counties and cities than those within the bounds of the Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS®. Please take this into consideration when referencing regions.

Economic Regions

Central Valley: Central Virginia:

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay:

Northern Virginia:

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg:

Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City, Highland, Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chesterfield, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan, Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City County, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax County, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier, Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond County, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin County, Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke County, Roanoke City, Salem City

Southside Virginia:

Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City, Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania

Southwest Virginia:

Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 2

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q1

First Quarter Market Summary The first quarter is generally the slowest of the year, but seasonal variation aside, Virginia experienced a 6.3% year-over-year increase in sales in 2015-Q1.

March 2015 sales were the highest Virginia has experienced in March since the recession. All in all, Virginia’s residential real estate market exhibited signs of sustained growth in the first quarter. The number of sales increased year-overyear in every region of Virginia except for Northern Virginia and Southside.

Further, Virginia experienced the second consecutive quarter of increased annualized sales following the three-quarter decrease in this measure from 2014-Q1 through 2014-Q3 (see page 5 for more information). Median sales price in Virginia increased throughout the first quarter, which is a typical seasonal trend. Median price increased 4% year-over-year. Increases in prices and sales resulted in an 8.5% increase in sales volume.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q1

Virginia Month-to-Month Sales Trends Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2012

2013

2014

2015

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

2011

4,728

5,116

7,145

7,311

2013

5,533

5,942

7,470

8,665

2012 2014 2015

5,068 5,356 5,715

5,775 5,642 5,973

7,213 7,109 7,610

7,698 8,467

May

8,391 9,064

Jun

9,223 9,740

Jul

7,970 8,664

8,136 9,026

10,488 10,802 10,383 10,155 9,647

10,579 10,121

9,421

Dec

6,916

6,263

6,070

6,758

8,186

7,950

6,949

7,559

7,213 8,290

7,259 8,398

7,405 6,599

6,847 8,231

Residential home sales increased 27.4% from 5,973 sales in February to 7,610 sales in March. March 2015 sales were 7% higher than sales in March 2014. The substantial increase in sales at the end of the first quarter was good news after fewer than anticipated sales in February. Since winter weather and the slow season is officially over, Virginia can expect to see increased inventory and increased sales throughout the next quarter.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 4

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q1

Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

35,000

29,962

30,000

28,728

28,693

27,832

26,502 24,911

25,000

23,228

22,458 21,509 20,000

19,099 18,056

19,298

18,910

18,153

+6.3% YOY

15,000

10,000

2011-­‐Q4 2012-­‐Q1 2012-­‐Q2 2012-­‐Q3 2012-­‐Q4 2013-­‐Q1 2013-­‐Q2 2013-­‐Q3 2013-­‐Q4 2014-­‐Q1 2014-­‐Q2 2014-­‐Q3 2014-­‐Q4 2015-­‐Q1 Quarter

Overall, the pace of home sales was 6.3% higher in the first quarter of 2015 compared to the first quarter of 2014. Virginia still experienced a substantial decrease in sales from the fourth quarter of 2014 to the first quarter of 2015. Seasonal fluctuations seem to have become more pronounced in recent years.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 5

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q1

Virginia Annualized Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

110,000

99,109

100,000 95,292 90,978 90,000 84,111

85,062

86,658

100,058 99,301

98,032

97,136

97,906

99,051

91,832

88,568

80,000

70,000

60,000

50,000 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 Quarter

Each data point on the graph above includes 12 months of home sales data ending in the quarter shown. For example, the 2015-Q1 figure (99,051 sales) includes home sales from April 2014 through March 2015. This rolling sum of home sales can provide a clearer indicator of long-term trends in Virginia’s housing market.

The annualized sales measure increased 1.2% from 2014-Q4 to 2015-Q1. The first quarter of 2015 was the second consecutive quarter of increases in this measure, after a steady decline from 2013Q4. Sustained growth in this measure is a good indication of improved long-term performance in the residential real estate market.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q1

Regional Changes in Sales 2014-Q1 vs. 2015-Q1 Units

Northern Virginia -0.4% Central Valley +4.2%

Central Virginia +15.9%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +7.9% Southwest Virginia +18.5%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay +11.4%

Southside Virginia -2.6%

Region

2014-Q1

2015-Q1

Change

Central Virginia

2,949

3,419

15.9%

Northern Virginia

7,766

7,733

-0.4%

Central Valley

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg Southside Virginia

Southwest Virginia All of Virginia

966

4,356

1,007 4,851

1,508

1,627

238

282

384

18,167

374

19,293

4.2%

11.4% 7.9%

-2.6%

18.5% 6.2%

Almost every region of the state experienced a higher pace of sales compared to the first quarter of 2014 with the exception of Northern Virginia and Southside Virginia. Central Virginia and the Hampton Roads/Chesapeake Bay region experienced a relatively strong first quarter with approximate increases of 16% and 11.4% respectively. Southwest Virginia experienced an 18.5% increase in sales year-overyear, with 44 more sales this year than in the first quarter of 2014.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 7

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q1

Virginia Median Residential Sales Price Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

$350,000

+4.02%

$244,467

$255,000

$259,000

$267,000

$235,000

$249,000

$254,000

$269,900

$233,000

$241,000

$248,000

$249,500

$215,000

$250,000

$220,000

Median Sales Price

$300,000

$200,000

+13.7% $150,000 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 Quarter

The median sales price in Virginia increased 4.02% year-over-year to $244,467 in the first quarter of 2015. Looking at the longer term trend, the median sales price in Virginia increased nearly 14% over the first quarter of 2012. Virginia’s home sales prices should increase gradually over time, but have recovered from the recession; therefore, any dramatic year-over-year increases in price could be a sign that inventory is relatively restricted.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 8

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q1

Regional Changes in Median Sales Prices 2014-Q1 vs. 2015-Q1

Northern Virginia +4.3% Central Valley +5.7%

Central Virginia +4.8%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +5.4% Southwest Virginia +10.8%

Southside Virginia +4.0%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay +4.7%

Region

2014-Q1

2015-Q1

Change

Central Valley

$189,250

$200,000

5.7%

Central Virginia

$187,000

$196,000

4.8%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay

$193,000

$202,000

4.7%

Northern Virginia

$350,000

$365,000

4.3%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg

$146,975

$154,950

5.4%

Southside Virginia

$75,000

$78,000

4.0%

Southwest Virginia

$100,000

$110,750

10.8%

All of Virginia

$235,000

$244,467

4.0%

Median sales prices stayed fairly stable throughout the state, with median price increases ranging from 4.8% in Central Virginia to 5.7% in the Central Valley and 10.8% in Southwest Virginia. Southwest Virginia experienced a significant change in median sales price (10.8%), but the median price is based on only 282 sales, so a few higher-priced homes could drive up this statistic.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 9

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q1

Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Volume ($B) Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

11

9.913

10

9.528

9.297

9.018

Billions of Dollars of Residential Sales

9

8.197 8

7.684 6.927

7

6.446

6

5.498

5.275 5

7.363

4.866

5.816 5.362

+8.5% YOY

4

3

2

2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 Quarter

This graph illustrates the dollar value of residential real estate sold (in billions) during each quarter over the past three years. The volume of real estate sold in the first quarter of 2015 ($5.8B) increased 8.5% from the first quarter of 2014 ($5.4B). Sales volume increased due to both increased sales and increased sale prices. Additionally, 2015-Q1 sales volume is nearly $1.0 billion greater than the first quarter of 2012 and $0.5 billion greater than the first quarter of 2013.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 10

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q1

Virginia Price Distribution Of Residential Home Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2014=Q1

$2M +

26 31

19.2%

$1.5M -­‐ $2M

49 58

18.4%

449 510

$750K -­‐ $1M

Price Range

9.0%

201 219

$1M -­‐ $1.5M

2015-Q1

13.6% 1,692 1,835

$500K -­‐ $750K

1,610 1,669

$400K -­‐ $500K

8.5% 3.7% 2,617

$300K -­‐ $400K

2,895

10.6% 4,075

$200K -­‐ $300K

4,539

11.4% 4,965 5,125

$100K -­‐ $200K 2,487 2,417

0 -­‐ $100K

0

500

1,000

3.2%

-2.8%

1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

5,000

5,500

6,000

Year-over-year home sales increased in all price ranges in the first quarter, except for the $0-100K price range. Low sales in the $0-100K range may result from low market inventory in this category and/ or higher financial barriers experienced by buyers in this market segment. Sales increased 19.2% in the $2M and above range, and 18.4% in the $1.5M-2M range. These increases represent a very small number of sales, 5 and 9 sales respectively. Given the small number of sales, the percent change measure is less meaningful in these categories. Other price ranges saw increases in residential sales, reflecting the overall increase in sales year-over-year. Increased sales were particularly substantial in the $200K-300K range.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 11

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q1

Virginia Average Days On Market Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

120

100

100

103

Average Days On Market

85

88

92

91

87

-5.4% YOY

84

81

80

80 71

71

73

73

60

40

20

0

2011-­‐Q4 2012-­‐Q1 2012-­‐Q2 2012-­‐Q3 2012-­‐Q4 2013-­‐Q1 2013-­‐Q2 2013-­‐Q3 2013-­‐Q4 2014-­‐Q1 2014-­‐Q2 2014-­‐Q3 2014-­‐Q4 2015-­‐Q1

Quarter

Days on the market decreased 5.4% year-over-year. Time on the market increased 7.4% from the fourth quarter of 2014 to an average of 87 days in the first quarter of 2015; however, 87 days is the lowest number of days on the market Virginia has experienced in the first quarter since 2011.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q1

Monthly Residential Sales VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales*)

UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales*) 600,000

16,000 14,000

500,000

12,000

400,000

10,000 8,000

257,000

243,000

300,000

6,000 4,000

200,000

5,973

5,667

100,000

2,000 0

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14 (p)

Sep-14 (p)

Oct-14 (p)

Nov-14 (p)

Dec-14 (p)

Jan-15 (p)

0

Feb-15 (p)

The pace of Virginia home sales has been similar to the pace of sales in the United States, as a whole, throughout 2014, leading into the first quarter of 2015. Both the United States, as a whole, and Virginia continued to experience seasonal decline through January; the pace remained relatively constant throughout the first two months of the year.

Monthly Residential Median Sales Price VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales*)

UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales*)

$300,000

$300,000

$245,000

$250,000 $229,000 $200,000 $150,000

$204,200

$187,900

$200,000 $150,000

$100,000 $50,000

$250,000

$100,000

Jan-14

Feb-14 Mar-14

Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14 Sep-14 (p) (p)

Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 (p) (p) (p) (p)

Feb-15 (p)

$50,000

The monthly residential median sales price increased in Virginia in February, while the median in the United States, as a whole, remained relatively constant. Despite this slight difference Virginia and the United States, as a whole, are experiencing similar seasonal fluctuations. Virginia prices remain about $40,000 higher than prices in the United States, as a whole, which is a relatively small difference, based on trends since 2010.

*Virginia sales reported in the graphs above include all single family, townhouse, and condo sales. U.S. sales are existing single family sales as reported by Realtor.org. Existing sales do not include newly constructed homes sold for the first time.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q1

Virginia Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

7% 6%

5.9%

6.0%

5.9%

6%

5.6%

5.3%

5.5%

5.8% 5.4%

5.3%

5%

5.2%

4.9%

4.8%

4.7%

2014-­‐Q3

2014-­‐Q4

2015-­‐Q1

5% 4%

2012-­‐Q1

2012-­‐Q2

2012-­‐Q3

2012-­‐Q4

2013-­‐Q1

2013-­‐Q2

2013-­‐Q3

2013-­‐Q4

2014-­‐Q1

2014-­‐Q2

2015-Q1 unemployment rate based on preliminary February 2015 data.

Unemployment rates by state, seasonally adjusted, March 2015 (U.S. rate = 5.5 percent)

9.0% and over 8.0% to 8.9% 7.0% to 7.9% 6.0% to 6.9% 5.0% to 5.9% SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics

4.0% to 4.9% 3.9% or below

Virginia’s unemployment rate continued to decrease in the first quarter of 2015 to 4.7% in February, but rose to 4.8% in March. The United States unemployment rate decreased in February to 5.5% and remained unchanged in March. A number of states’ unemployment rates (shown in the map above) have increased over the past two months. Virginia’s rate has remained low, but could be impacted by congressional budget decisions.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 14

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q1

Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac

4.6% 4.44%

4.4%

4.30%

4.2% 4.0% 3.8%

3.92%

4.36%

4.23%

4.14% 3.97%

3.80%

3.6%

3.72%

3.69% 3.54%

3.4%

3.50% 3.36%

3.2% 3.0%

2012-­‐Q1

2012-­‐Q2

2012-­‐Q3

2012-­‐Q4

2013-­‐Q1

2013-­‐Q2

2013-­‐Q3

2013-­‐Q4

2014-­‐Q1

2014-­‐Q2

2014-­‐Q3

2014-­‐Q4

3.3%

3.2%

2015-­‐Q1

Average 15-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac

3.6%

3.5%

3.4% 3.2%

3.4%

3.4%

3.3%

3.2% 3.0%

3.0%

3.0% 2.8%

2.8%

2.7%

2.6%

2.7%

2.9%

2.4% 2.2% 2.0%

2012-­‐Q1

2012-­‐Q2

2012-­‐Q3

2012-­‐Q4

2013-­‐Q1

2013-­‐Q2

2013-­‐Q3

2013-­‐Q4

2014-­‐Q1

2014-­‐Q2

2014-­‐Q3

2014-­‐Q4

2015-­‐Q1

Both 30-year and 15-year mortgage interest rates decreased in January and February, but increased in March. The March 30-year rate was 3.7% and the 15-year rate was 3.04%. The increase from February to March was relatively insignificant. Rates should rise over the long-term, but incremental changes are not likely to have a noticeable effect on sales.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q1

The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the largest professional trade association in Virginia, representing approximately 30,000 REALTORS® engaged in the residential and commercial real estate business. VAR serves as an advocate for homeownership and private property rights and represents the interests of real estate professionals and property owners in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

Note: The term REALTOR® is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS® and subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics.

All inquiries regarding this report may be directed to: Jody LoMenzo Director of Communications Virginia Association of REALTORS® Jody@varealtor.com 504-264-5033

Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by R E Stats Inc. All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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