November 2016 Virginia Home Sales Report

NOVEMBER

2016

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®, the advocate for real estate professionals and property owners in Virginia.

November 2016

The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) publishes monthly and quarterly home sales reports to provide our members, the media, and real estate‐related industries with current data. The report data comes from a variety of sources and is analyzed by the Virginia Association of REALTORS®. All data may be used with citation to the proprietary owner, the Virginia Association of REALTORS®.

The data presented is based on specific economic regions comprised of counties and independent cities in Virginia, as detailed in the map below. It should be noted that these regions do not necessarily align with the counties and cities that comprise the 28 local REALTOR® associations in Virginia. For example, the economic region defined as Northern Virginia encompasses more counties and cities than those within the bounds of the Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS®. Please take this into consideration when referencing regions.

Central

Southside

Eastern

Southwest

Hampton Roads

Valley

Northern

West Central

Central

Eastern Hampton Roads

Northern

Southside

Southwest

Valley

West Central

Albemarle, Amelia, Buckingham, Caroline, Charles City, Chesterfield, Culpeper, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Fluvanna, Goochland, Greene, Hanover, Henrico, King & Queen, King William, Louisa, Madison, Nelson, New Kent, Orange, Powhatan, Prince George, Rappahannock, Sussex; Charlottesville, Colonial Heights, Hopewell, Petersburg, Richmond

Accomack, Essex, King George, Lancaster, Middlesex, Northampton, Northumberland, Richmond, Westmoreland Gloucester, Isle of Wight, James City, Mathews, Surry, York; Chesapeake, Franklin, Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk, Poquoson, Portsmouth, Suffolk, Virginia Beach, Williamsburg

Arlington, Clarke, Fairfax, Fauquier, Loudoun, Prince William, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren; Alexandria, Fairfax, Falls Church, Fredericksburg, Manassas, Manassas Park

Brunswick, Charlotte, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenburg, Mecklenburg, Nottoway, Patrick, Pittsylvania, Prince Edward, Southampton; Danville, Emporia, Martinsville

Bland, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Floyd, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe; Bristol, Galax, Norton

Alleghany, Augusta, Bath, Frederick, Highland, Page, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Shenandoah; Buena Vista, Covington, Harrisonburg, Lexington, Staunton, Waynesboro, Winchester

Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Botetourt, Campbell, Craig, Franklin, Giles, Montgomery, Pulaski, Roanoke; Lynchburg, Radford, Roanoke, Salem

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Data recorded December 15, 2016

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November 2016

November Market Summary November 2016 residential real estate sales surged year‐over‐year, boosted by post‐ election consumer confidence, loosened inventory, and the anticipation of rising rates. November volume, or aggregate transaction value, totaled $2.663 billion, nearly 20 percent above last November’s volume ($2.221 billion).

Typical of industry seasonality, November sales volume fell from October volume by 6.5 percent. By comparison, last year’s November volume was 20.3 percent less than in October. Year‐to‐date volume ‐ the sum of all sales since January 1, 2016 ‐ totaled $34.816 billion, 7.9 percent higher than by the same time last year ($32.271 billion).

The number of units sold (pace) in November 2016 was 8,269, significantly higher (17.8 percent) the same month last year (7,020). As pace typically declines each month from June to December, November sales fell predictably from October by 7.1 percent (from 8,897). By comparison, last November’s pace was 20.9 percent lower than October’s.

Indicating buyer urgency, median price rose 5.2 percent year‐over‐year (from $251,958 to $265,000) and 1.1 percent month‐over‐month (from $262,000). Also indicating strong buyer motivation, average days on the market declined year‐over‐ year from 78 to 70 (10.3 percent).

The Federal Reserve Bank raised the key rate in December for the second time in a decade. The average 30‐year fixed mortgage interest rate for November 2016 rose 30 basis points to 3.77 percent. For the preceding 24 months, average month‐to‐month variance was 2.4 basis points, with the greatest single month motion being 21 points (from January to February 2016).

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Data recorded December 15, 2016

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November 2016

Sales Pace ‐ Monthly Single Family, Condo, Townhome 14,000

13,251 11,756

12,000

11,481 11,720

10,189 10,000

10,061

9,566 8,871

8,000

8,750

8,897

8,661

7,020

8,269

6,552 5,933

6,000 4,000

17.8 %

2,000 ‐

The number of home sales in Virginia increased year‐over‐year by 17.8 percent, from 7,020 in November of 2015 to 8,269 in November of 2016.

Sales Pace ‐ November Benchmarks Single Family, Condo, Townhome 9,000 8,269 8,000

7,000

7,020

6,990 6,661

6,000

5,000 13‐Nov

14‐Nov

15‐Nov

16‐Nov

The historical trend line for November sales illustrates how pronounced the performance increase was for this month in 2016.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Data recorded December 15, 2016

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November 2016

Median Sales Price Single Family, Condo, Townhome

265,000

$262,000

$263,490

$272,000

$278,000

$265,000

$253,999

$245,000

$264,000

$250,000

$246,900

$260,000

251,958

$270,000

$250,000

$280,000

$251,930

$290,000

$268,000

$300,000

$276,000

$310,000

$289,900

$320,000

$240,000

5.2 %

$230,000 $220,000

Median sales price for November 2016 rose 5.2 percent year‐over‐year, from $251,958 to $265,000.

Month‐over‐month, median price rose 1.1 percent. The year‐0ver‐year and month‐to‐month increases indicate sustained high demand.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Data recorded December 15, 2016

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November 2016

$2.663

$2.849

$3.197

$3.870

$3.313

$2.678

$1.988

$2.823

$2

$1.795

$3

$2.221

$3

$2.787

Billions

$4

$2.969

$4

$3.303

$5

$3.946

$5

$3.863

Single Family, Condo, Townhome

$4.658

Residential Sales Volume ‐ Monthly

19.9%

$2 $1 $1 $0

November 2016 sales volume increased 19.9 percent from the previous year benchmark, from $2.221 billion to $2.663 billion. Sales volume measures the total sum of each home sale price in Virginia and, therefore, follows sales pace and median price trends. For November 2016, year‐over‐year increase in volume was magnified by the strong increase in median price as well as pace.

Month‐over‐month, sales fell by 6.5 percent, typical of industry seasonality. In comparison, the month‐over‐month decline from October to November 2015 was 20.3 percent.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Data recorded December 15, 2016

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November 2016

Average Days on the Market Single Family, Condo, Townhome 100 86

90 78

80 70

69

78

77

85 79

72

71

70 63 58

60

60

61

64

65

50 40

‐10.3%

30 20 10 0

The average number of days on the market in November 2016 (70) decreased 10.3 percent from last November (78). The relative speed of transactions reflects sustained urgency among buyers.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Data recorded December 15, 2016

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November 2016

Virginia Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 7.0% 6.5%

3.9%

4.0%

4.1%

4.2%

Aug‐16

Sep‐16

Oct‐16

Nov‐16

3.7% Jul‐16

3.9% Apr‐16

3.7%

4.0% Mar‐16

Jun‐16

4.1% Feb‐16

3.7%

4.1% Jan‐16

4.0%

May‐16

4.2% Dec‐15

4.8% Jul‐15

4.1%

4.9% Jun‐15

Nov‐15

4.9% May‐15

4.2%

4.8% Apr‐15

Oct‐15

4.8% Mar‐15

4.3%

4.7% Feb‐15

4.5%

Sep‐15

4.7% Jan‐15

4.5%

4.8% Dec‐14

5.0%

4.8%

5.5%

Nov‐14

6.0%

3.5% Aug‐15

3.0%

The Virginia unemployment rate for November 2016 rose slightly to 4.2 percent (seasonally adjusted).

Average 30 ‐Year Mortgage Interest Rate Source: FreddieMac 4.25% 4.05% 3.94%

3.96% 3.87%

3.85%

3.77% 3.66%

3.65%

3.69% 3.61%

3.60%

3.57%

3.45%

3.44%

3.44%

3.46%

3.47%

Jul‐16

Aug‐16

Sep‐16

Oct‐16

3.25% Nov‐15

Dec‐15

Jan‐16

Feb‐16

Mar‐16

Apr‐16

May‐16

Jun‐16

Nov‐16

Average 30‐year fixed mortgage interest rates rose 30 basis points in November 2016 to 3.77 percent. While still at historic lows, rates continue to incent prospective buyers; as rates increase, buyers are incented with greater urgency to take advantage of low cost financing.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Data recorded December 15, 2016

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November 2016

The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the largest professional trade association in Virginia, representing approximately 32,000 REALTORS® engaged in the residential and commercial real estate business. VAR serves as the advocate for homeownership and private property rights and represents the interests of real estate professionals and property owners in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

NOTE: The term REALTOR® is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS® and subscribes to its strict code of ethics.

All inquiries regarding this report may be directed to:

Jenny Wortham Virginia Association of REALTORS® Jenny@VARealtor.com 804‐262‐3755

The numbers reported here are preliminary and based on current entries into multiple listing services. Over time, data may be adjusted slightly to reflect increased reporting. Information is sourced from multiple listing services across Virginia and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Data recorded December 15, 2016

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