2014-Q1 Virginia Home Sales Report

2011 2014

second Fsecond IRST Quarter QUARTER Quarter

VIRGINIA VIRGINIA Home HomeSAleS SAleSRepoRt RepoRt

Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

速 速 Published by by Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate for for Published Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate realreal estate professionals andand property owners in Virginia. estate professionals property owners in Virginia.

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2014-Q1

Virginia Month-to-Month Sales Trends Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2011

2012

2013

2014

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0 January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November December

Month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2011

4,728

5,116

7,145

7,311

8,391

9,223

7,970

8,136

6,916

6,263

6,070

6,758

2012

5,068

5,775

7,213

7,698

9,064

9,740

8,664

9,026

7,213

7,261

7,400

6,838

2013

5,528

5,911

7,456

8,660

10,454

10,763

10,344

10,104

8,138

7,887

6,882

7,356

2014

5,333

5,595

6,910

The pace of residential home sales in the first quarter of 2014 was 5.67% lower than the first quarter of 2013. This decrease has been widely attributed to the weather, but could also be a sign of a slowing recovery. Despite the year-over-year decrease, the pace of sales is increasing steadily as we enter the spring selling season. If the slow first quarter can indeed be attributed to the weather, we should see sales pick up substantially in the next couple of months.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2014-Q1

Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

35,000

29,962

30,000

28,749 26,502 24,911

24,906

25,000

23,001

22,461 21,509

20,000

19,099

18,558

18,056

18,910 17,838

17,105

-5.67% YOY

15,000

10,000

2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 Quarter

The pace of home sales was 5.67% lower in the first quarter of 2014 compared to the first quarter of 2013. Decreasing pace is typical for Virginia in the first quarter, primarily because the winter season lingers through February. Sales increased from 5,595 in February to 6,910 in March (23.5%), indicating that Virginia is moving into the higher paced spring selling season.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 3

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2014-Q1

Virginia Annualized Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

110,000

99,130

100,000

100,082

99,010

95,292 90,978 90,000 83,630

84,194

83,570

84,111

85,062

86,658

91,832

88,568

81,367 80,000

70,000

60,000

50,000

2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 Quarter

Our annualized sales metric showed no growth for the first time in 12 quarters (3 years). We expected a slow first quarter due to Virginia’s fairly harsh winter and hope that the faster pace of sales in March will lead to a strong second quarter. However, a decline in this metric may also be an indication that the market recovery is slowing.

Each data point on the graph above includes 12 months of home sales data ending in the quarter shown. For example, the 2014-Q1 figure (99,010 sales) includes home sales from April 2013 through March 2014. Using this rolling sum of home sales can provide a clearer indicator of long-term trends in Virginia’s housing market.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2014-Q1

Regional Changes in Sales 2013-Q1 vs. 2014-Q1 Units

Northern Virginia -9.3% Central Valley -8.5%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +8.3% Southwest Virginia -12.7%

Central Virginia -2.2%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay -4.5%

Southside Virginia -2.1%

Region

2013-Q1

2014-Q1

Change

Central Valley

1,038

950

-8.5%

Central Virginia

2,945

2,881

-2.2%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay

4,511

4,308

-4.5%

Northern Virginia

8,395

7,614

-9.3%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg

1,355

1,468

8.3%

Southside Virginia

387

379

-2.1%

Southwest Virginia

268

234

-12.7%

All of Virginia

18,899

17,834

-5.6%

Every region of the state experienced a slower pace of sales compared to the first quarter of 2013 with exception of the Roanoke/Lynchburg/Blacksburg region. Decreases in sales ranged from 2.1% (8 fewer sales) in Southside to 9.3% (781 fewer sales) in Northern Virginia.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 5

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2014-Q1

Virginia Median Residential Sales Price Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

$235,000

$249,000

$254,000

$269,000 $232,600

$241,000

$248,000

$249,500 $215,000

$220,000

$235,000

$232,500

$210,000

Median Sales Price

$250,000

$232,694

$300,000

+1.03%

$200,000

$150,000

+11.9%

$100,000 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 Quarter

The median sales price in Virginia increased 1% over the past year to $235,000. Looking at the longer term trend, the median sales price in Virginia has increased by 11.9% over 2011-Q1. The median price decreased steadily from second quarter of 2013, following the typical pattern of seasonal price fluctuation in Virginia. Previous years indicate that prices will increase through the second quarter and level out in the third quarter.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 6

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2014-Q1

Regional Changes in Median Sales Prices 2013-Q1 vs. 2014-Q1

Northern Virginia +2.9% Central Valley +1.0%

Central Virginia +6.9%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +0.3% Southwest Virginia -16.7%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay -1.4%

Southside Virginia +4.9%

Region

2013-Q1

2014-Q1

Change

Central Valley

$186,965

$188,750

1.0%

Central Virginia

$175,000

$187,000

6.9%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay

$195,000

$192,250

-1.4%

Northern Virginia

$340,000

$349,900

2.9%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg

$146,000

$146,500

0.3%

Southside Virginia

$72,000

$75,500

4.9%

Southwest Virginia

$120,000

$100,000

-16.7%

All of Virginia

$240,535

$235,000

-2.3%

Median sales price stayed fairly stable throughout the state. Only Southwest Virginia experienced a significant change (-16.7%). Based on state trends, we can expect to see increases in prices in all regions through the second quarter.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 7

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2014-Q1

Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Volume ($M) Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

11,000

9,913

10,000

9,308

Millions of Dollars of Residential Sales

9,000

8,197 8,000

7,684 7,307

6,000

5,000

6,935

6,789

7,000

6,446

5,446

5,498

5,275

5,268

4,866 4,503

-4.2% YOY

4,000

3,000

2,000

2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 Quarter

This graph illustrates the dollar value of real estate sold (in millions) during each quarter over the past three years. The volume of real estate sold in the first quarter of 2014 ($5.2B) decreased 4.2% from the first quarter of 2013 ($5.4B) primarily due to a slower pace of sales. Median sales price was slightly higher this quarter than in the first quarter of 2013.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 8

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2014-Q1

Virginia Price Distribution Of Residential Home Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2013-Q1 $2M +

36 25

-31%

$1.5M - $2M

45 49

9%

187 194

$1M - $1.5M

Price Range

4% 450 436

$750K - $1M

2014-Q1

-3% 1,670 1,638

$500K - $750K

1,614 1,576

$400K - $500K

-2% -2% 2,743 2,560

$300K - $400K

-7% 4,207 4,021

$200K - $300K

-4% 5,286

$100K - $200K

4,898 2,681 2,441

0 - $100K 0

500

-7%

-9%

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

Year-over-year home sales decreased in all price ranges this quarter except for the $1-$2M price ranges. Sales increased 4% in the $1M-1.5M range and 9% in the $1.5M-2M range. These increases represent a very small number of sales, 4 and 7 sales respectively. Given the small number of sales, there is not much insight to be gained from these relatively small increases. During the first quarter, unemployment and mortgage interest rates remained stable, so decreases in most of the price ranges likely reflect the seasonal trend. The decrease was most substantial in the $2M+ price range, 31%.

Again, since this decrease represents a very small number of sales (11) there is not a lot of insight to be gained from this decrease, although it is reasonable that increases in interest rates would have the largest impact among higher priced sales. Decreases in other price ranges ranged from 2% to 9%.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 9

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2014-Q1

Virginia Average Days On Market Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

120

104 100 91

100 94

103

93 85

84

88

+1%YOY

91

80

80

Average Days On Market

92

71

71

60

40

20

0

2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 Quarter

Days on the market remain relatively low and the year-over-year change was slight. Time on the market increased 15% from the fourth quarter of 2013 to an average of 92 days in the first quarter of 2014.

Days on the market dropped from 98 in February to 89 in March indicating that the spring selling season is underway.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 10

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2014-Q1

Regional Changes in Foreclosures 2013-Q4 vs. 2014-Q3

Northern Virginia -11% Central Valley 36%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg 6% Southwest Virginia 0%

Central Virginia 32%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay 3%

Southside Virginia 62%

Region

2013-Q4

2014-Q1

Change

Central Valley

28

38

36%

Central Virginia

225

297

32%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay

463

479

3%

Northern Virginia

547

486

-11%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg

84

89

6%

Southside Virginia

13

21

62%

Southwest Virginia

12

12

0%

All of Virginia

1,372

1,422

4%

Many areas of Virginia experienced an increase in foreclosures in the first quarter of 2014. The increases in foreclosures in the Central Valley and Southside are somewhat misleading because the number of foreclosures is so low that small changes result in large percentage changes. Northern Virginia’s foreclosures decreased this quarter. Only Central Virginia experienced a significant increase in the number of foreclosures.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2014-Q1

Monthly Residential Sales VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales)

UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales) 600,000

16,000 14,000

500,000

12,000

400,000

10,000 8,000

262,000

243,000

5,922

5,595

6,000 4,000 2,000 0

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14 (p)

300,000 200,000 100,000 0

The pace of Virginia home sales has been similar to the pace of sales in the United States as a whole throughout the year. Both the United States as a whole and Virginia continued to experience seasonal decline through January, but the pace picked up in February. Virginia’s pace increased slightly faster than that of the United States as a whole.

Monthly Residential Median Sales Price VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales)

UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales) $300,000

$300,000 $233,000

$250,000 $230,000

$200,000

$200,000 $189,200

$150,000 $173,500

$150,000 $100,000

$100,000 $50,000

$250,000

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13 Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13 Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14 (p)

$50,000

The median sales price in Virginia also increased more quickly than prices in the United States as a whole. The US median price increased only 0.7% from January to February while Virginia’s price increased 1.9%.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 12

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2014-Q1

Virginia Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor & Statistics

7% 7%

6.4%

6.5%

6.6% 6.2%

6%

6.0%

5.9%

5.9%

5.6%

6% 5%

5.5%

5.3%

5.8% 5.4% 4.9%

5% 4%

2011-Q1

2011-Q2

2011-Q3

2011-Q4

2012-Q1

2012-Q2

2012-Q3

2012-Q4

2013-Q1

2013-Q2

2013-Q3

2013-Q4

2014-Q1

2013-Q3 unemployment rate based on preliminary August 2013 data.

Unemployment Rates By State

seasonally adjusted, November 2013 (U.S. rate = 7.0 percent)

14.0% and over 12.0% to 13.9% 10.0% to 11.9% 8.0% to 9.9% 6 0% tto 77.9% 6.0% 9% 4.0% to 5.9% SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics

3.9% or below

Virginia’s unemployment rate decreased in the first quarter of 2014 to 4.9% in February. Virginia remained at the second lowest level of unemployment in the United States in March, but unemployment rose to 5.0%. It isn’t likely that this slight rise in unemployment had a discernible impact on sales.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2014-Q1

Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac

5.0% 4.8%

4.85% 4.66%

4.6% 4.4%

4.44%

4.31%

4.2%

4.01%

4.0% 3.8%

3.92%

3.80%

3.6%

3.36%

3.2% 3.0%

4.36%

3.69%

3.54%

3.4%

4.30%

3.50%

2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1

Average 15-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac

4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0%

4.1% 3.9% 3.5%

3.3%

3.5% 3.2%

3.0% 2.8%

2.5% 2.0%

2.7%

2.7%

3.4%

3.4%

2.9%

2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1

30-year mortgage interest rates increased in the first quarter of 2014, while 15-year rates remained stable. Generally rates remain very stable and should have had little affect on sales.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 14

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2014-Q1

The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the business advocate for real estate professionals in Virginia. VAR represents more than 29,000 REALTORS® active in all phases of real estate brokerage, management, development and appraisal. Our mission is to enhance our membership’s ability to achieve business success.

All inquiries regarding this report should be directed to: Stacey Ricks, Chief of Marketing and Communications Virginia Association of REALTORS® 10231 Telegraph Road, Glen Allen, VA 23059 (804) 249-5716 Stacey@VARealtor.com www.VARealtor.com/HomeSales

Economic Regions

Central Valley: Central Virginia:

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay:

Northern Virginia:

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg:

Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City, Highland, Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chesterfield, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan, Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier, Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Bedford City, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke, Roanoke City, Salem City

Southside Virginia:

Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City, Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania

Southwest Virginia:

Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe

Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by R E Stats Inc. All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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