2011 2013
Quarter QUARTER Quarter
Tsecond HIRD second
VIRGINIA VIRGINIA Home HomeSAleS SAleSRepoRt RepoRt
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
速 速 Published by by Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate for for Published Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate realreal estate professionals andand property owners in Virginia. estate professionals property owners in Virginia.
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q3
Virginia Month-to-Month Sales Trends Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2010
2011
2012
2013
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0 January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November December
Month
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2010
4,562
4,892
7,087
8,337
8,903
10,493
7,137
7,210
6,427
6,035
6,010
6,468
2011
4,728
5,116
7,145
7,311
8,391
9,223
7,970
8,136
6,916
6,263
6,070
6,758
2012 2013
5,068 5,528
5,775 5,915
7,213 7,443
7,698 8,623
9,064 10,429
9,740 10,727
8,664 10,302
9,026 10,002
7,213 7,967
7,261
7,400
6,838
The pace of residential home sales this quarter is 13.48% higher than the third quarter of 2012. This year-over-year increase reflects strong sales in July and August and a moderate increase in September. The decrease in sales from August 2013 to September 2013 (20.4%) was similar to the decline Virginia experienced last year, 20.08% from August 2012 to September 2012. Year-over-year sales indicate continued recovery, but the sharp decline in sales this September may be a sign that the recovery is slowing. Sales performance over the previous three years is not consistent, so we cannot reliably predict our trajectory this winter. We will likely continue to see year-over-year improvement, but those improvements may be small since the Virginia market is heavily influenced by government spending. The October 2013 government shutdown and continued sequester may be reflected in the housing market. Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 2
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q3
Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
35,000
29,779
30,000
28,271
27,733
+13.5%
26,502 25,000
YOY
24,911
24,906 23,001
21,505
20,798 20,000
19,099
18,558
18,056
18,886
17,105
15,000
10,000
2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 Quarter
In the third quarter we experienced a decline in home sales, but maintained a year-over-year increase. This seasonal decline is normal and September sales were higher than last year, but economic stress from the October 2013 government shutdown and continued sequester may negatively affect sales throughout the winter.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 3
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q3
Virginia Annualized Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
110,000
100,000
98,441 95,081
93,279 90,974 90,000
87,921
Pos t 80,000
83,630
Tax -
84,194
83,570
84,111
Cre di
81,367
tD
ecl
85,062
86,658
KE MAR
91,804
88,568
!
VERY
O T REC
ine
70,000
60,000
50,000
2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 Quarter
Quarterly trends show continued improvement in the pace of home sales in Virginia. This quarter marks approximately two years of market improvements since the post-tax-credit low in the second quarter of 2011. Each data point on the graph above includes 12 months of home sales data ending in the quarter shown, thus the 2013-Q3 figure (98,441 sales) includes home sales from October 2012 through September 2013. Using this rolling sum of home sales can provide a clearer indicator of long-term trends in Virginia’s housing market. This graph is more robust than graphs showing monthly and quarterly trends, therefore we can be fairly confident that the market recovery will continue until we begin to experience a consistent plateau over four quarters of annualized data.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 4
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q3
Regional Changes in Sales 2012-Q3 vs. 2013-Q3 Units
Northern Virginia +11.6% Central Valley +14.5%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +17.8% Southwest Virginia +13.0%
Central Virginia +15.8%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay +14.4%
Southside Virginia +10.9%
Region
2012-Q3
2013-Q3
Change
Central Valley
1,429
1,636
14.5%
Central Virginia
3,843
4,451
15.8%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay
5,656
6,468
14.4%
Northern Virginia
11,379
12,698
11.6%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
1,893
2,230
17.8%
Southside Virginia
384
426
10.9%
Southwest Virginia
315
356
13.0%
All of Virginia
24,899
28,265
13.5%
The entire state experienced substantial year-over-year increases in sales in the third quarter as shown in the map and chart above. However, most regions experienced little change in sales from 2013-Q2 to the 2013-Q3: the Central Valley (+2.2%), Central Virginia (-3%), Hampton Roads/Chesapeake Bay (+1.7%), Roanoke/Lynchburg/Blacksburg (+0.9%), Southside (-0.9%), and Southwest Virginia (+0.3%). Northern Virginia experienced a more significant decrease (8.9%) from the second to third quarter.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 5
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q3
Virginia Median Residential Sales Price Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
$254,000
$232,600
$241,000
$248,000
$249,500 $215,000
$220,000
$235,000
$232,694
$232,500
$249,900
$210,000
Median Sales Price
$250,000
$239,900
+2.42%
$269,000
$300,000
$200,000
+1.64% $150,000
$100,000 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 Quarter
The median sales price in Virginia increased 2.42% over the past year to $254,000 for all residential sales. Looking at the longer term trend, the median sales price in Virginia has increased by 1.64% over 2010, as measured by third quarter sales data. The decrease in median price has been fairly steady throughout the third quarter and is an assurance that Virginia home prices are stable.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 6
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q3
Regional Changes in Median Sales Prices 2012-Q3 vs. 2013-Q3
Northern Virginia +6.5% Central Valley +7.0%
Central Virginia +9.1%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +3.9% Southwest Virginia 2.1%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay +2.4%
Southside Virginia 0.0%
Region
2012-Q3
2013-Q3
Change
Central Valley
$200,000
$214,000
7.0%
Central Virginia
$187,900
$205,000
9.1%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay
$209,900
$214,950
2.4%
Northern Virginia
$352,000
$375,000
6.5%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
$155,000
$161,000
3.9%
Southside Virginia
$80,000
$80,000
0.0%
Southwest Virginia
$112,000
$114,350
2.1%
All of Virginia
$249,500
269,000
7.8%
Nearly every region in Virginia experienced year-over-year increases in median sales price which is evidence of a healthy market recovery. The decline in prices from 2013-Q2 to 2013-Q3 (see page 6) was fairly consistent throughout the state.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 7
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q3
Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Volume ($M) Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
11,000
9,827
10,000
9,127
Millions of Dollars of Residential Sales
9,000
8,198
19% YOY
8,197
8,000
7,684 7,307 6,789
7,000
6,444
6,410 6,000
5,000
5,446
5,489
5,275 4,866 4,503
4,000
3,000
2,000
2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 Quarter
This graph illustrates the dollar value of real estate sold (in millions) during each quarter over the past three years. The volume of real estate sold in the third quarter of 2013 ($9.1B) was a strong 19% increase from the second quarter of 2012 ($7.7B). Year-over-year increases in volume are clear evidence of continued market recovery.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 8
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q3
Virginia Average Days On Market Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
120
104 100 91
Average Days On Market
80
79
100 94
103
93
82
85
84
88
91
-16%YOY
71
71
60
40
20
0
2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 Quarter
Days on the market remain historically low. Time on the market decreased 16% from the third quarter of 2012 to an average of 71 days in the third quarter of 2013. Although the quarterly average days on the market remained the same from 2013-Q2 to 2013-Q3, days on the market continued to increase through September.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 9
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q3
Virginia Price Distribution Of Residential Home Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2013-Q2 $2M +
52 43
-17%
$1.5M - $2M
89 80
-10% 440 398
$1M - $1.5M
Price Range
-10% 990 926
$750K - $1M
2013-Q3
-6% 3,555
$500K - $750K
3,114 2,987 2,773
$400K - $500K
-12%
-7% 4,657 4,517
$300K - $400K
-3% 6,622 6,438
$200K - $300K
-3% 7,127 7,090
$100K - $200K 2,980 2,892
0 - $100K 0
500
-1%
-3%
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
Home sales decreased in all price ranges this quarter, reflecting the overall decline in sales primarily in September. The most substantial decreases in sales were for homes sold for more than $400K. Although overall price decreases may be influencing this distribution (as prices decrease homes move from higher price categories or lower price categories), the significant decrease in sales of homes in these ranges ($400K-$2M) should not be entirely attributed to seasonal price decreases. A number of factors, possibly restricted inventory and unfavorable economic conditions could be compounding seasonal declines in sales.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 10
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q3
Monthly Residential Sales VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales)
UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales) 600,000
16,000 14,000 12,000
465,000
423,000
400,000
10,000 8,000 6,000
10,002
9,026
300,000 200,000
4,000
100,000
2,000 0
500,000
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13 (p)
Aug- 13 (p)
0
The monthly variation in the pace of home sales is relatively consistent in Virginia as compared to the entire United States. However, U.S. sales continued to increase into the third quarter while Virginia sales decreased.
Monthly Residential Median Sales Price VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales)
UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales)
$300,000 $250,000
$265,000
$248,000
$250,000
$200,000 $150,000
$212,200
$185,500
$200,000 $150,000 $100,000
$100,000 $50,000
$300,000
Aug-12 Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12 Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13 (p)
Aug-13 (p)
$50,000
The median sales price in Virginia remains higher than the national average, but tracked down this quarter . US sales remained steady through July and August, while Virginia prices began to decline.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 11
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q3
Virginia Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor & Statistics
8% 7% 7%
6.9%
6.7%
6%
6.4%
6.5%
6.6%
6.2%
6%
6.0%
5.9%
5.9%
5.6%
5%
5.3%
5.5%
5.8%
5% 4%
2010-Q3
2010-Q4
2011-Q1
2011-Q2
2011-Q3
2011-Q4
2012-Q1
2012-Q2
2012-Q3
2012-Q4
2013-Q1
2013-Q2
2013-Q3 unemployment rate based on preliminary August 2013 data.
2013-Q3 (p)
Unemployment Rates By State seasonally adjusted, August 2013 (U.S. rate = 7.3 percent)
14.0% and over 12.0% to 13.9% 10.0% to 11.9% 8.0% to 9.9% 6 0% tto 77.9% 6.0% 9% 4.0% to 5.9% SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics
3.9% or below
Virginia’s unemployment rate increased in the third quarter of 2013. Virginia remained at the second lowest level of unemployment in the United States in August, despite the increase in unemployment.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 12
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q3
Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac
5.0%
4.85%
4.8%
4.66%
4.6% 4.4%
4.45%
4.41%
4.44%
4.31%
4.2%
4.01%
4.0% 3.8%
3.92%
3.80%
3.6% 3.4%
3.36%
3.2% 3.0%
3.69%
3.54%
3.50%
2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3
Average 15-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac
4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0%
4.1% 3.9%
3.8%
3.9% 3.5%
3.3%
3.5% 3.2%
2.8%
2.5% 2.0%
3.0% 2.7%
2.7%
2.9%
2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3
Mortgage interest rates increased faster in the third quarter of 2013 compared to the previous three quarters. The Federal Reserve Board has indicated that this upward trajectory will continue, but likely at a slow pace. Nonetheless, mortgage interest rates remain historically low.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 13
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q3
The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the business advocate for real estate professionals in Virginia. VAR represents more than 28,000 REALTORS active in all phases of real estate brokerage, management, development and appraisal. Our mission is to enhance our membership’s ability to achieve business success. All inquiries regarding this report should be directed to: Stacey Ricks, Director of Public Relations Virginia Association of REALTORS® 10231 Telegraph Road, Glen Allen, VA 23059 (804) 249-5716 Stacey@VARealtor.com www.VARealtor.com/HomeSales
Economic Regions
Central Valley: Central Virginia:
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay:
Northern Virginia:
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg:
Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City, Highland, Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chesterfield, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan, Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier, Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Bedford City, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke, Roanoke City, Salem City
Southside Virginia:
Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City, Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania
Southwest Virginia:
Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe
Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by R E Stats Inc. All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 14