Q32013 report

2011 2013

Quarter QUARTER Quarter

Tsecond HIRD second

VIRGINIA VIRGINIA Home HomeSAleS SAleSRepoRt RepoRt

Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

速 速 Published by by Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate for for Published Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate realreal estate professionals andand property owners in Virginia. estate professionals property owners in Virginia.

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q3

Virginia Month-to-Month Sales Trends Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2010

2011

2012

2013

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0 January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November December

Month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2010

4,562

4,892

7,087

8,337

8,903

10,493

7,137

7,210

6,427

6,035

6,010

6,468

2011

4,728

5,116

7,145

7,311

8,391

9,223

7,970

8,136

6,916

6,263

6,070

6,758

2012 2013

5,068 5,528

5,775 5,915

7,213 7,443

7,698 8,623

9,064 10,429

9,740 10,727

8,664 10,302

9,026 10,002

7,213 7,967

7,261

7,400

6,838

The pace of residential home sales this quarter is 13.48% higher than the third quarter of 2012. This year-over-year increase reflects strong sales in July and August and a moderate increase in September.

The decrease in sales from August 2013 to September 2013 (20.4%) was similar to the decline Virginia experienced last year, 20.08% from August 2012 to September 2012.

Year-over-year sales indicate continued recovery, but the sharp decline in sales this September may be a sign that the recovery is slowing. Sales performance over the previous three years is not consistent, so we cannot reliably predict our trajectory this winter. We will likely continue to see year-over-year improvement, but those improvements may be small since the Virginia market is heavily influenced by government spending. The October 2013 government shutdown and continued sequester may be reflected in the housing market.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 2

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q3

Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

35,000

29,779

30,000

28,271

27,733

+13.5%

26,502 25,000

YOY

24,911

24,906 23,001

21,505

20,798 20,000

19,099

18,558

18,056

18,886

17,105

15,000

10,000

2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 Quarter

In the third quarter we experienced a decline in home sales, but maintained a year-over-year increase.

This seasonal decline is normal and September sales were higher than last year, but economic stress from the October 2013 government shutdown and continued sequester may negatively affect sales throughout the winter.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 3

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q3

Virginia Annualized Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

110,000

100,000

98,441 95,081

93,279 90,974 90,000

87,921

Pos t 80,000

83,630

Tax -

84,194

83,570

84,111

Cre di

81,367

tD

ecl

85,062

86,658

KE MAR

91,804

88,568

!

VERY

O T REC

ine

70,000

60,000

50,000

2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 Quarter

Quarterly trends show continued improvement in the pace of home sales in Virginia. This quarter marks approximately two years of market improvements since the post-tax-credit low in the second quarter of 2011.

Each data point on the graph above includes 12 months of home sales data ending in the quarter shown, thus the 2013-Q3 figure (98,441 sales) includes home sales from October 2012 through September 2013. Using this rolling sum of home sales can provide a clearer indicator of long-term trends in Virginia’s housing market.

This graph is more robust than graphs showing monthly and quarterly trends, therefore we can be fairly confident that the market recovery will continue until we begin to experience a consistent plateau over four quarters of annualized data.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 4

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q3

Regional Changes in Sales 2012-Q3 vs. 2013-Q3 Units

Northern Virginia +11.6% Central Valley +14.5%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +17.8% Southwest Virginia +13.0%

Central Virginia +15.8%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay +14.4%

Southside Virginia +10.9%

Region

2012-Q3

2013-Q3

Change

Central Valley

1,429

1,636

14.5%

Central Virginia

3,843

4,451

15.8%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay

5,656

6,468

14.4%

Northern Virginia

11,379

12,698

11.6%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg

1,893

2,230

17.8%

Southside Virginia

384

426

10.9%

Southwest Virginia

315

356

13.0%

All of Virginia

24,899

28,265

13.5%

The entire state experienced substantial year-over-year increases in sales in the third quarter as shown in the map and chart above. However, most regions experienced little change in sales from 2013-Q2 to the 2013-Q3: the Central Valley (+2.2%), Central Virginia (-3%), Hampton Roads/Chesapeake Bay (+1.7%), Roanoke/Lynchburg/Blacksburg (+0.9%), Southside (-0.9%), and Southwest Virginia (+0.3%).

Northern Virginia experienced a more significant decrease (8.9%) from the second to third quarter.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 5

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q3

Virginia Median Residential Sales Price Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

$254,000

$232,600

$241,000

$248,000

$249,500 $215,000

$220,000

$235,000

$232,694

$232,500

$249,900

$210,000

Median Sales Price

$250,000

$239,900

+2.42%

$269,000

$300,000

$200,000

+1.64% $150,000

$100,000 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 Quarter

The median sales price in Virginia increased 2.42% over the past year to $254,000 for all residential sales. Looking at the longer term trend, the median sales price in Virginia has increased by 1.64% over 2010, as measured by third quarter sales data. The decrease in median price has been fairly steady throughout the third quarter and is an assurance that Virginia home prices are stable.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 6

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q3

Regional Changes in Median Sales Prices 2012-Q3 vs. 2013-Q3

Northern Virginia +6.5% Central Valley +7.0%

Central Virginia +9.1%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +3.9% Southwest Virginia 2.1%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay +2.4%

Southside Virginia 0.0%

Region

2012-Q3

2013-Q3

Change

Central Valley

$200,000

$214,000

7.0%

Central Virginia

$187,900

$205,000

9.1%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay

$209,900

$214,950

2.4%

Northern Virginia

$352,000

$375,000

6.5%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg

$155,000

$161,000

3.9%

Southside Virginia

$80,000

$80,000

0.0%

Southwest Virginia

$112,000

$114,350

2.1%

All of Virginia

$249,500

269,000

7.8%

Nearly every region in Virginia experienced year-over-year increases in median sales price which is evidence of a healthy market recovery. The decline in prices from 2013-Q2 to 2013-Q3 (see page 6) was fairly consistent throughout the state.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 7

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q3

Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Volume ($M) Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

11,000

9,827

10,000

9,127

Millions of Dollars of Residential Sales

9,000

8,198

19% YOY

8,197

8,000

7,684 7,307 6,789

7,000

6,444

6,410 6,000

5,000

5,446

5,489

5,275 4,866 4,503

4,000

3,000

2,000

2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 Quarter

This graph illustrates the dollar value of real estate sold (in millions) during each quarter over the past three years. The volume of real estate sold in the third quarter of 2013 ($9.1B) was a strong 19% increase from the second quarter of 2012 ($7.7B). Year-over-year increases in volume are clear evidence of continued market recovery.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 8

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q3

Virginia Average Days On Market Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

120

104 100 91

Average Days On Market

80

79

100 94

103

93

82

85

84

88

91

-16%YOY

71

71

60

40

20

0

2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 Quarter

Days on the market remain historically low. Time on the market decreased 16% from the third quarter of 2012 to an average of 71 days in the third quarter of 2013. Although the quarterly average days on the market remained the same from 2013-Q2 to 2013-Q3, days on the market continued to increase through September.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 9

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q3

Virginia Price Distribution Of Residential Home Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2013-Q2 $2M +

52 43

-17%

$1.5M - $2M

89 80

-10% 440 398

$1M - $1.5M

Price Range

-10% 990 926

$750K - $1M

2013-Q3

-6% 3,555

$500K - $750K

3,114 2,987 2,773

$400K - $500K

-12%

-7% 4,657 4,517

$300K - $400K

-3% 6,622 6,438

$200K - $300K

-3% 7,127 7,090

$100K - $200K 2,980 2,892

0 - $100K 0

500

-1%

-3%

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

Home sales decreased in all price ranges this quarter, reflecting the overall decline in sales primarily in September. The most substantial decreases in sales were for homes sold for more than $400K. Although overall price decreases may be influencing this distribution (as prices decrease homes move from higher price categories or lower price categories), the significant decrease in sales of homes in these ranges ($400K-$2M) should not be entirely attributed to seasonal price decreases. A number of factors, possibly restricted inventory and unfavorable economic conditions could be compounding seasonal declines in sales.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 10

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q3

Monthly Residential Sales VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales)

UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales) 600,000

16,000 14,000 12,000

465,000

423,000

400,000

10,000 8,000 6,000

10,002

9,026

300,000 200,000

4,000

100,000

2,000 0

500,000

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13 (p)

Aug- 13 (p)

0

The monthly variation in the pace of home sales is relatively consistent in Virginia as compared to the entire United States. However, U.S. sales continued to increase into the third quarter while Virginia sales decreased.

Monthly Residential Median Sales Price VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales)

UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales)

$300,000 $250,000

$265,000

$248,000

$250,000

$200,000 $150,000

$212,200

$185,500

$200,000 $150,000 $100,000

$100,000 $50,000

$300,000

Aug-12 Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12 Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13 (p)

Aug-13 (p)

$50,000

The median sales price in Virginia remains higher than the national average, but tracked down this quarter . US sales remained steady through July and August, while Virginia prices began to decline.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 11

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q3

Virginia Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor & Statistics

8% 7% 7%

6.9%

6.7%

6%

6.4%

6.5%

6.6%

6.2%

6%

6.0%

5.9%

5.9%

5.6%

5%

5.3%

5.5%

5.8%

5% 4%

2010-Q3

2010-Q4

2011-Q1

2011-Q2

2011-Q3

2011-Q4

2012-Q1

2012-Q2

2012-Q3

2012-Q4

2013-Q1

2013-Q2

2013-Q3 unemployment rate based on preliminary August 2013 data.

2013-Q3 (p)

Unemployment Rates By State seasonally adjusted, August 2013 (U.S. rate = 7.3 percent)

14.0% and over 12.0% to 13.9% 10.0% to 11.9% 8.0% to 9.9% 6 0% tto 77.9% 6.0% 9% 4.0% to 5.9% SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics

3.9% or below

Virginia’s unemployment rate increased in the third quarter of 2013. Virginia remained at the second lowest level of unemployment in the United States in August, despite the increase in unemployment.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 12

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q3

Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac

5.0%

4.85%

4.8%

4.66%

4.6% 4.4%

4.45%

4.41%

4.44%

4.31%

4.2%

4.01%

4.0% 3.8%

3.92%

3.80%

3.6% 3.4%

3.36%

3.2% 3.0%

3.69%

3.54%

3.50%

2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3

Average 15-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac

4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0%

4.1% 3.9%

3.8%

3.9% 3.5%

3.3%

3.5% 3.2%

2.8%

2.5% 2.0%

3.0% 2.7%

2.7%

2.9%

2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3

Mortgage interest rates increased faster in the third quarter of 2013 compared to the previous three quarters. The Federal Reserve Board has indicated that this upward trajectory will continue, but likely at a slow pace. Nonetheless, mortgage interest rates remain historically low.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 13

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q3

The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the business advocate for real estate professionals in Virginia. VAR represents more than 28,000 REALTORS active in all phases of real estate brokerage, management, development and appraisal. Our mission is to enhance our membership’s ability to achieve business success.

All inquiries regarding this report should be directed to: Stacey Ricks, Director of Public Relations Virginia Association of REALTORS® 10231 Telegraph Road, Glen Allen, VA 23059 (804) 249-5716 Stacey@VARealtor.com www.VARealtor.com/HomeSales

Economic Regions

Central Valley: Central Virginia:

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay:

Northern Virginia:

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg:

Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City, Highland, Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chesterfield, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan, Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier, Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Bedford City, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke, Roanoke City, Salem City

Southside Virginia:

Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City, Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania

Southwest Virginia:

Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe

Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by R E Stats Inc. All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 14