2011 2013
Quarter QUARTER Quarter
second FOURTH second
VIRGINIA VIRGINIA Home HomeSAleS SAleSRepoRt RepoRt
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
速 速 Published by by Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate for for Published Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate realreal estate professionals andand property owners in Virginia. estate professionals property owners in Virginia.
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q4
Virginia Month-to-Month Sales Trends Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2010
2011
2012
2013
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0 January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November December
Month
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2010
4,562
4,892
7,087
8,337
8,903
10,493
7,137
7,210
6,427
6,035
6,010
6,468
2011
4,728
5,116
7,145
7,311
8,391
9,223
7,970
8,136
6,916
6,263
6,070
6,758
2012 2013
5,068 5,528
5,775 5,911
7,213 7,456
7,698 8,660
9,064 10,454
9,740 10,763
8,664 10,344
9,026 10,104
7,213 8,138
7,261 7,887
7,400 6,882
6,838 7,356
The pace of residential home sales in the fourth quarter was 2.86% higher than the fourth quarter of 2012. This increase is modest because sales were particularly weak in November. December sales were 7.58% higher than December 2012, so Virginia year-over-year sales this year were higher in every month except November. Year-over-year sales indicate that the housing market continues to recover. The seasonal decline will likely continue throughout next quarter, but then we can expect the market to pick up its pace.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 2
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q4
Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
35,000
29,877
30,000
28,586 26,502 24,911
24,906
25,000
23,001 20,798 20,000
+2.86%
21,509 19,099
18,558
18,056
22,125
YOY
18,895
17,105
15,000
10,000
2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 Quarter
Virginia experienced its typical seasonal decline in the fourth quarter of 2013. Nonetheless, year-overyear sales were up 2.86%. Consistently positive year-over-year gains show Virginia’s strong market recovery.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 3
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q4
Virginia Annualized Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
110,000
98,867
100,000
99,483
95,192 90,978 90,000
87,921 83,630
84,194
83,570
84,111
85,062
81,367 80,000
91,817
88,568
86,658
RY!
VE ECO ET R
K MAR
70,000
60,000
50,000
2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 Quarter
Quarterly trends show continued improvement in the pace of home sales in Virginia. This graph shows Virginia’s consistent market recovery since the beginning of 2011. We can expect slow growth in this metric throughout the first quarter of 2014, but hope to see strong sales starting in the second quarter. Each data point on the graph above includes 12 months of home sales data ending in the quarter shown. For example, the 2013-Q4 figure (99,483 sales) includes home sales from January 2013 through December 2013. Using this rolling sum of home sales can provide a clearer indicator of long-term trends in Virginia’s housing market. This graph is more robust than graphs showing monthly and quarterly trends, therefore we can be fairly confident that the market recovery will continue until we begin to experience a consistent plateau over four quarters of annualized data.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 4
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q4
Regional Changes in Sales 2012-Q4 vs. 2013-Q4 Units
Northern Virginia -0.3% Central Valley -5.7%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +14.9% Southwest Virginia +20.6%
Central Virginia +3.7%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay +8.2%
Southside Virginia -17%
Region
2012-Q4
2013-Q4
Change
Central Valley
1,210
1,141
-5.7%
Central Virginia
3,437
3,564
3.7%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay
4,855
5,252
8.2%
Northern Virginia
9,750
9,720
-0.3%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
1,564
1,797
14.9%
Southside Virginia
406
337
-17.0%
Southwest Virginia
257
310
20.6%
All of Virginia
21,479
22,121
3.0%
Market performance was not consistent throughout the state in the final quarter of 2013. Three regions experienced year-over-year decreases in sales from 2012-Q4 to 2013-Q4: Northern Virginia (-0.3%), the Central Valley (-5.7%), and Southside (-17.0%). Central Virginia (+3.7%), Hampton Roads/Chesapeake Bay (+8.2%), Roanoke/Lynchburg/Blacksburg (+14.9%), and Southwest Virginia (+20.6%) had stronger markets in 2013-Q4 compared to 2012-Q4. Changes in regions with decreasing sales were moderate compared to the gains in other regions, meaning year-over-year sales increased in Virginia as a whole.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 5
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q4
Virginia Median Residential Sales Price Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
$249,000
$254,000
$269,000 $232,600
$241,000
$248,000
$249,500 $215,000
$220,000
$235,000
$232,694 $210,000
Median Sales Price
$250,000
$232,500
$249,900
$300,000
+3.3%
$200,000
+7.1% $150,000
$100,000 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 Quarter
The median sales price in Virginia increased 3.3% over the past year to $249,000 for all residential sales. Looking at the longer term trend, the median sales price in Virginia has increased by 7.1% over 2010Q4. The median price decreased from the third quarter to the fourth quarter, despite an increase in median sales price in December. Previous years indicate that prices will drop during January, but pick up again as we near the second quarter.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 6
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q4
Regional Changes in Median Sales Prices 2012-Q4 vs. 2013-Q4
Northern Virginia +5.9% Central Valley +8.5%
Central Virginia +7.1%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg 0.0% Southwest Virginia 0.0%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay -1.2%
Southside Virginia 17.6%
Region
2012-Q4
2013-Q4
Change
Central Valley
$200,000
$217,000
8.5%
Central Virginia
$182,000
$195,000
7.1%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay
$201,500
$199,000
-1.2%
Northern Virginia
$340,000
$360,000
5.9%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
$151,025
$151,000
0.0%
Southside Virginia
$70,750
$83,200
17.6%
Southwest Virginia
$110,000
$110,000
0.0%
All of Virginia
$240,535
249,000
3.5%
Changes in median sales price also varied throughout the state. Southwest Virginia, the Roanoke/ Lynchburg/Blacksburg region and the Hampton Roads/Chesapeake Bay region experienced little change. Northern Virginia, the Central Valley, Central Virginia and Southside all expericenced increasing prices. The combination of rising prices and fewer sales in Southside, Northern Virginia and the Central Valley could indicate that inventory is limited in these regions.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 7
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q4
Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Volume ($M) Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
11,000
9,880
10,000
9,238
Millions of Dollars of Residential Sales
9,000
8,197 8,000
7,684 7,307 6,789
7,000
6,446
6,410 6,000
5,000
5,446
5.7% YOY
6,813
5,493
5,275 4,866 4,503
4,000
3,000
2,000
2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 Quarter
This graph illustrates the dollar value of real estate sold (in millions) during each quarter over the past three years. The volume of real estate sold in the fourth quarter of 2013 ($6.8B) increased 5.7% from the fourth quarter of 2012 ($6.4B). Consistent year-over-year increases in volume are also evidence of Virginia’s strong and continuing market recovery.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 8
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q4
Virginia Average Days On Market Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
120
104 100 91
100 94
103
93
82
85
84
88
91 80
Average Days On Market
80 71
71
-9%YOY
60
40
20
0
2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 Quarter
Days on the market remain relatively low. Time on the market decreased 9% from the fourth quarter of 2012 to an average of 80 days in the fourth quarter of 2013.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 9
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q4
Virginia Price Distribution Of Residential Home Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2012-Q4 $2M +
35 40
14%
$1.5M - $2M
61 57
-7% 236 274
$1M - $1.5M
Price Range
16% 538 617
$750K - $1M
15% 2,068 2,228
$500K - $750K
8%
1,836 2,035
$400K - $500K
2013-Q4
11% 3,253 3,313
$300K - $400K
2% 4,885 5,024
$200K - $300K
3% 5,759 5,792
$100K - $200K 2,813 2,745
0 - $100K 0
500
1%
-2%
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales
Year-over-year home sales increased in all price ranges this quarter except for the 0-$100K and the 1.5M-$2M ranges. With the exception of a decrease in sales in the $1.5M -$2M price range, sales of higher priced homes increased more substantially than homes that sold for less than $400,000. Note that fluctuation in the $1.5M+ categories is to be expected because there are so few sales in these ranges and therefore, small changes make a larger impact on the percentage change. There have been fewer sales in the 0-$100K price range each quarter of 2013 compared to 2012, possibly because unemployment and stricter mortgage loan requirements disproportionately affect households with more moderate incomes. However, the margin is shrinking. In the beginning of 2013 year-over-year sales in the 0-$100K range were down 12%. We will likely see the number of sales in this range improve as unemployment continues to fall.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 10
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q4
Regional Changes in Foreclosures 2013-Q3 vs. 2013-Q4
Northern Virginia -72% Central Valley -88%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg -86% Southwest Virginia -56%
Central Virginia -84%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay -82%
Southside Virginia -90%
Region
2013-Q3
2013-Q4
Change
Central Valley
73
9
-88%
Central Virginia
342
55
-84%
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay
758
140
-82%
Northern Virginia
715
202
-72%
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg
219
30
-86%
Southside Virginia
21
2
-90%
Southwest Virginia
16
7
-56%
All of Virginia
2,144
445
-79%
Many areas of Virginia experienced a large spike in foreclosures in the third quarter of 2013. In the fourth quarter each region of the state experienced more typical amounts of foreclosures, resulting in the large drop in foreclosures in every region from 2013-Q3 to 2013-Q4.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 11
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q4
Monthly Residential Sales VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales)
UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales) 600,000
16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000
500,000 345,000
332,000
300,000
8,000 6,000
7,400
6,882
4,000
200,000 100,000
2,000 0
400,000
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13 (p)
0
The pace of Virginia home sales has been similar to the pace of sales in the United States as a whole throughout the year. Both the United States as a whole and Virginia continued to experience seasonal decline in October and November.
Monthly Residential Median Sales Price VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales)
UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales) $300,000
$300,000 $250,000
$248,000
$245,000
$200,000
$200,000 $196,200
$150,000 $179,400
$150,000 $100,000
$100,000 $50,000
$250,000
Nov-12 Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13 Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13 (p)
$50,000
The median sales price in Virginia remains higher than the national average, but closely mirrored the United States price decline in October and November.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 12
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q4
Virginia Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor & Statistics
7% 7%
6.7%
6.4%
6.5%
6.6% 6.2%
6%
5.9%
6.0%
5.9%
6%
5.6%
5.3%
5%
5.5%
5.8% 5.4%
5% 4%
2010-Q4
2011-Q1
2011-Q2
2011-Q3
2011-Q4
2012-Q1
2012-Q2
2012-Q3
2012-Q4
2013-Q1
2013-Q2
2013-Q3
2013-Q4
2013-Q3 unemployment rate based on preliminary August 2013 data.
Unemployment Rates By State
seasonally adjusted, November 2013 (U.S. rate = 7.0 percent)
14.0% and over 12.0% to 13.9% 10.0% to 11.9% 8.0% to 9.9% 6 0% tto 77.9% 6.0% 9% 4.0% to 5.9% SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics
3.9% or below
Virginia’s unemployment rate decreased in the fourth quarter of 2013 to 5.4% in November. Virginia remained at the second lowest level of unemployment in the United States in November. Decreasing unemployment may be one reason for the uptick in sales in December.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 13
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q4
Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac
5.0%
4.85%
4.8%
4.66%
4.6% 4.4%
4.41%
4.44%
4.31%
4.2%
4.01%
4.0% 3.8%
3.92%
3.80%
3.6%
3.36%
3.2% 3.0%
3.69%
3.54%
3.4%
4.30%
3.50%
2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4
Average 15-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac
4.5% 4.1%
4.0% 3.8% 3.5% 3.0%
3.9% 3.5%
3.3%
3.5% 3.2%
3.0% 2.8%
2.5% 2.0%
2.7%
2.7%
3.4%
2.9%
2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4
Mortgage interest rates decreased in the fourth quarter of 2013. This decrease in mortgage interest rates may be another factor contributing to increased sales in December.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 14
Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report
2013-Q4
The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the business advocate for real estate professionals in Virginia. VAR represents more than 28,000 REALTORS® active in all phases of real estate brokerage, management, development and appraisal. Our mission is to enhance our membership’s ability to achieve business success. All inquiries regarding this report should be directed to: Stacey Ricks, Director of Public Relations Virginia Association of REALTORS® 10231 Telegraph Road, Glen Allen, VA 23059 (804) 249-5716 Stacey@VARealtor.com www.VARealtor.com/HomeSales
Economic Regions
Central Valley: Central Virginia:
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay:
Northern Virginia:
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg:
Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City, Highland, Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chesterfield, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan, Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier, Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Bedford City, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke, Roanoke City, Salem City
Southside Virginia:
Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City, Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania
Southwest Virginia:
Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe
Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by R E Stats Inc. All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 15