2015-08 Virginia Home Sales Report

2011

2015 2011

second AUGUST second Quarter Quarter

VIRGINIA VIRGINIA HomeSAleS SAleSRepoRt RepoRt Home

Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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August 2015 The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) publishes monthly and quarterly home sales reports to provide our members, the media and real estate-related industries with current data. The report data comes from a variety of sources and is analyzed by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech. All data may be used with citation to the proprietary owner, the Virginia Association of REALTORS®.

The data presented is based on specific economic regions comprised of counties and independent cities in Virginia as detailed in the map below. However, it should be noted that these regions do not necessarily align with the counties and cities that comprise the 27 local REALTOR® associations in Virginia. For example, the economic region defined as Northern Virginia encompasses more counties and cities than those within the bounds of the Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS®. Please take this into consideration when referencing regions.

Economic Regions

Central Valley: Central Virginia:

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay:

Northern Virginia:

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg:

Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City, Highland, Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chesterfield, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan, Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City County, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax County, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier, Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond County, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin County, Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke County, Roanoke City, Salem City

Southside Virginia:

Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City, Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania

Southwest Virginia:

Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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August 2015

August Market Summary August sales were 5.26% higher year-over-year, while median sales price remained fairly stable. Both number of sales and sales prices decreased from July to August. Sales and prices decrease seasonally beginning in July and continue to decrease through the beginning of the following year. Days on the market increased to 69 in August, but remained 5.24% lower than August 2014.

August sales volume was 3.87% higher year-over-year due to a combination of slightly higher prices and a 5.26% increase in sales. Since Virginia experienced a less pronounced seasonal decline last year, Virginia is likely to experience smaller year-over-year changes this fall, following the relatively high peak of sales in July.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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August 2015 Virginia's Monthly Pace of Residential Sales Single Family, Townhomes, Condos

14,000

12,589 11,688

12,000 10,643

10,313

10,172

Number of Residential Sales

10,000

9,647

9,482

9,981

9,116 8,354

8,445

8,483

8,304

+5.26%

8,000 6,650 5,790

6,000

6,064

4,000

2,000

0

(p) indicates that this month’s numbers are preliminary. The numbers may change slightly as more data is reported.

Virginia residential sales increased 5.26% year-over-year and decreased 15% from July to August. Sales typically decrease throughout the fall and winter from their peak in June. Seasonality seems more pronounced this year than in 2014, meaning Virginia experienced a relatively steep climb in sales from January to June of 2015 and now seems to be headed into a steeper decent. In Virginia, the second half of the year often mirrors the first half: steep increases in the spring are often followed by steep declines in the fall.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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August 2015 Virginia Median Residential Sales Price Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

$266,500

$274,900

$282,000

$274,900

$259,975

$250,000

$245,000

$237,750

$259,170

$250,000

$246,200

$250,000

$262,000

$267,848

$279,900

$264,700

$257,000

$243,000

$232,750

$228,380

$250,000

$250,000

$250,000

$245,000

$250,000

$265,000

Median Sales Price

$300,000

$274,900

$350,000

+1.72% $200,000

+0.57%

$150,000

(p) indicates that this month’s numbers are preliminary. The numbers may change slightly as more data is reported.

The August 2015 median sales price ($266,500) was 1.72% higher than August 2014 ($262,000) and slightly higher than August of 2013 ($265,000). Virginia sale prices continue to follow a seasonal trajectory while remaining relatively stable year-over-year.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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August 2015 Virginia Monthly Residential Sales Volume ($B) Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

5.00

4.50

4.29 3.90

4.00

Billions of Dollars of Residential Sales

3.67 3.48

3.38

3.50 3.14

3.22

3.10

3.87%

3.00 2.58

2.73

2.59

2.92 2.64

2.50 2.07 2.00

1.73

1.84

1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00 May-14 Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14 Dec-14 (p)

Jan-15 (p)

Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 (p) (p) (p) (p) (p)

Jul-15 (p)

Aug-15 (p)

(p) indicates that this month’s numbers are preliminary. The numbers may change slightly as more data is reported.

Sales volume was 3.87% higher this August than August 2014 due to a combination of slightly higher prices and a 5.26% increase in sales. Since Virginia experienced a less pronounced seasonal decline last year, Virginia is likely to experience smaller year-over-year changes this fall, following the relatively high peak of sales in the summer.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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August 2015 Virginia Average Days On Market

Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 100 91 90

85

85 81

80 74

Average Days On Market

70

69

74

77

80 75

74

68

73 67

7.35%

80

82

91 85 77

76

69

60

69

66

65

-5.24%

62

64

50

40

30

20

10

0

(p) indicates that this month’s numbers are preliminary. The numbers may change slightly as more data is reported.

Days on the market increased to 69 in August from 64 days in July, but days on the market remain 5.24% lower than August 2014. Virginia can expect days on the market to increase steadily through January.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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August 2015 Virginia Unemployment Rate

4.8%

4.9%

4.9%

4.8%

4.8%

4.7%

4.7%

4.8%

4.8%

4.9%

5.0%

5.0%

5.3%

5.2%

5.2%

5.3%

5.3%

5.3%

5.3%

5.2%

5.4%

5.6%

5.6%

5.8%

5.7%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4%

The Virginia unemployment rate decreased from June to July, while the national rate remained unchanged. The national rate decreased to 5.1% in August. The August rate for Virginia has not yet been released but the Virginia rate generally tracks the national rate while performing better overall.

Decreasing unemployment generally has a positive influence over the residential real estate market because as job security and the potential of getting a new job increases, consumers likely feel more confident.

Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac

4.4% 4.2% 4.0%

4.12%

4.16% 4.04%

4.00%

3.98% 3.86%

3.8% 3.6%

3.67%

3.71%

Jan-15

Feb-15

3.77%

4.05%

3.91%

3.84% 3.67%

3.4% 3.2% 3.0%

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Average 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates decreased to 3.91% in August which may have encouraged some buyers.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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August 2015 The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the largest professional trade association in Virginia, representing approximately 30,000 REALTORS® engaged in the residential and commercial real estate business. VAR serves as an advocate for homeownership and private property rights and represents the interests of real estate professionals and property owners in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

Note: The term REALTOR® is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS® and subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics.

All inquiries regarding this report may be directed to: Martin Johnson Virginia Association of REALTORS® Martin@VARealtor.com 804-249-5708

Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by RE Stats Inc. All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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