2011
2016 2011
Quarter Quarter
second
second FEBRUARY
VIRGINIA VIRGINIA HomeSAleS SAleSRepoRt RepoRt Home
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
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February 2016 The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) publishes monthly and quarterly home sales reports to provide our members, the media and real estate-related industries with current data. The report data comes from a variety of sources and is analyzed by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech. All data may be used with citation to the proprietary owner, the Virginia Association of REALTORS®. The data presented is based on specific economic regions comprised of counties and independent cities in Virginia as detailed in the map below. However, it should be noted that these regions do not necessarily align with the counties and cities that comprise the 27 local REALTOR® associations in Virginia. For example, the economic region defined as Northern Virginia encompasses more counties and cities than those within the bounds of the Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS®. Please take this into consideration when referencing regions.
Economic Regions
Central Valley: Central Virginia:
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay:
Northern Virginia:
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg:
Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City, Highland, Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chesterfield, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan, Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City County, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax County, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier, Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond County, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin County, Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke County, Roanoke City, Salem City
Southside Virginia:
Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City, Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania
Southwest Virginia:
Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 2
February 2016
February Market Summary Sales increased 9.2% from January to February and average days on the market decreased, signaling the fast approach of the spring selling season. Further, sales increased 5.5% year-over-year and sales volume increased 4.89% yearover-year, despite marginally lower prices. The decreasing unemployment rate along with decreasing interest rates will likely encourage prospective buyers to enter the market this spring. Buyers may be especially keen to make their move with the anticipation of higher rates later this year. National analysts are expecting this spring’s residential real estate market to be very competitive, since national for-sale inventory remains relatively low.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
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February 2016 Virginia's Monthly Pace of Residential Sales Single Family, Townhomes, Condos
14,000 12,680 11,815
12,000 10,366
10,199
10,000
9,559
Number of Residential Sales
9,122
8,857
8,488
8,297
8,729
8,000 7,011
6,650 5,777
6,000
6,391
6,058
5,854
+5.5%
4,000
2,000
0 Nov-14 Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15
Jul-15 (p)
Aug-15 Sep-15 (p) (p)
Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 (p) (p) (p)
Jan-16 (p)
Feb-16 (p)
(p) indicates that this month’s numbers are preliminary. The numbers may change slightly as more data is reported.
The number of home sales in Virginia increased 5.5% year-over-year, February 2016 compared to February 2015. Sales increased 9.2% from January to February, signaling the approach of the spring selling season. Virginia can expect to see month-to-month increases in sales through June, based on historic trends. March typically initiates the spring selling season, with a substantial boost in sales.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
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February 2016 Virginia Median Residential Sales Price Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
$242,600
$245,000
$264,800
$252,000
$250,000
$251,860
$268,000
$275,000
$284,000
$275,000
$260,000
$251,000
$245,000
$237,750
$259,170
$250,000
$246,200
$250,000
$262,000
$267,848
$264,700
$257,000
$243,000
$232,750
$250,000
$228,380
Median Sales Price
$300,000
$279,900
$350,000
-0.98%
$200,000
$150,000
(p) indicates that this month’s numbers are preliminary. The numbers may change slightly as more data is reported.
Median sales price for February 2016 ($242,600) was 0.98% lower than February 2015 ($245,000) but 4.2% higher than February of 2014 ($232,750). The median sales price also decreased 0.98% monthto-month. Prices decreased from January to February in 2009 and 2010, but have otherwise increased from January to February for each year since 2008.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
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February 2016 Virginia Monthly Residential Sales Volume ($B) Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
5.00
4.50
4.33 3.95
Billions of Dollars of Residential Sales
4.00 3.51
3.50
3.30 2.97
2.94
3.00
2.73
2.50
2.22
2.07 2.00
2.81
2.78
2.64
1.73
1.84
1.77
1.93
+4.89%
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00 Nov-14 Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15
Jul-15 (p)
Aug-15 (p)
Sep-15 (p)
Oct-15 (p)
Nov-15 Dec-15 (p) (p)
Jan-16 (p)
Feb-16 (p)
(p) indicates that this month’s numbers are preliminary. The numbers may change slightly as more data is reported.
Sales volume was 4.89% higher this February than February 2015. Sales volume measures the total sum of each home-sale price in Virginia and therefore, generally follows sales pace and median price trends. The year-over-year increase in sales volume is slightly lower than the year-over-year increase in sales because the median price, which indicates the overall trajectory of sale prices, was lower yearover-year.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
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February 2016 Virginia Average Days On Market
Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 100 91 90
85
85 81
80
Average Days On Market
70
60
80 75
73 67
80
82
76
69 65
+7.1%
91 86
85
78
77 68
66 62
78
85
77
71
64
-6.6%
50
40
30
20
10
0
(p) indicates that this month’s numbers are preliminary. The numbers may change slightly as more data is reported.
Average days on the market decreased 6.6% year-over-year. A decrease in average days on the market is another signal that the spring selling season is approaching.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
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February 2016
Virginia Unemployment Rate
4.1%
4.2%
4.2%
4.2%
4.3%
4.5%
4.8%
4.9%
4.9%
4.8%
4.8%
4.7%
4.7%
4.8%
4.8%
4.9%
5.0%
5.0%
5.3%
5.2%
5.2%
5.3%
5.3%
5.3%
5.3%
5.2%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3%
The Virginia unemployment rate decreased to 4.1% in January. The low and declining unemployment rate will likely increase consumer confidence and may encourage potential home buyers to enter the market.
Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac
4.6% 4.4% 4.2% 4.0% 3.8%
3.98%
3.71%
4.05% 3.91%
3.84%
3.77%
3.89%
3.94%
3.96%
3.80%
3.87%
3.67%
3.6%
3.66%
3.4%
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Average 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates decreased again in February. Further, the Federal Reserve Board announced that it will not increase rates this spring because inflation has yet to reach the Board’s target. See the Federal Reserve Board FOMC’s March 16th statement for more details. The prospect of rate increases later in the year may encourage buyers to enter the market.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 8
February 2016 The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the largest professional trade association in Virginia, representing approximately 31,000 REALTORS® engaged in the residential and commercial real estate business. VAR serves as an advocate for homeownership and private property rights and represents the interests of real estate professionals and property owners in the Commonwealth of Virginia. Note: The term REALTOR® is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS® and subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics.
All inquiries regarding this report may be directed to: Martin Johnson Virginia Association of REALTORS® Martin@VARealtor.com 804-249-5708
Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by RE Stats Inc. All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
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