2011
2016 2011
Quarter
second second JANUARY Quarter
VIRGINIA VIRGINIA HomeSAleS SAleSRepoRt RepoRt Home
Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Published by Virginia association of of reaLtors , the advocate Published by the Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate for for for Published by Virginia Association REALTORS速, the advocate estate professionals property owners in Virginia. Virginia. realreal estate professionals andand property owners in in Virginia. real estate professionals and property owners 速 速
January 2016 The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) publishes monthly and quarterly home sales reports to provide our members, the media and real estate-related industries with current data. The report data comes from a variety of sources and is analyzed by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech. All data may be used with citation to the proprietary owner, the Virginia Association of REALTORS®. The data presented is based on specific economic regions comprised of counties and independent cities in Virginia as detailed in the map below. However, it should be noted that these regions do not necessarily align with the counties and cities that comprise the 27 local REALTOR® associations in Virginia. For example, the economic region defined as Northern Virginia encompasses more counties and cities than those within the bounds of the Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS®. Please take this into consideration when referencing regions.
Economic Regions
Central Valley: Central Virginia:
Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay:
Northern Virginia:
Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg:
Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City, Highland, Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chesterfield, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan, Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City County, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax County, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier, Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond County, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin County, Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke County, Roanoke City, Salem City
Southside Virginia:
Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City, Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania
Southwest Virginia:
Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 2
January 2016
January Market Summary January and February are the slowest months of the year for the residential real estate market. 5,757 homes sales were closed in Virginia in January, reflecting a typical seasonal decline from December. Sales prices reached their seasonal low, but the median sales price was 3.26% higher than the median price in January of 2015. Since prices were higher year-over-year, sales volume increased despite a small year-over-year decrease in sales. 30-year mortgage interest rates decreased in January, which may be encouraging to buyers.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 3
January 2016 Virginia's Monthly Pace of Residential Sales Single Family, Townhomes, Condos
14,000 12,680 11,810
12,000 10,334
10,194
10,000
9,552
Number of Residential Sales
9,122 8,445
8,851
8,488
8,297
8,697
8,000 7,001
6,650
5,777
6,000
6,058
5,757
-0.35% 4,000
2,000
0 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 (p)
Jul-15 (p)
Aug-15 Sep-15 (p) (p)
Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 (p) (p) (p)
Jan-16 (p)
(p) indicates that this month’s numbers are preliminary. The numbers may change slightly as more data is reported.
The number of home sales in January 2016 was marginally lower than the number of sales in January 2015. Historically, January and February are the slowest months of the year for home sales.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 4
January 2016 Virginia Median Residential Sales Price Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
$200,000
$245,500
$264,000
$252,000
$250,000
$251,930
$268,000
$275,000
$284,000
$275,000
$260,000
$251,000
$245,000
$237,750
$259,170
$250,000
$246,200
$250,000
$262,000
$267,848
$264,700
$257,000
$243,000
$232,750
$250,000
$228,380
$250,000
Median Sales Price
$300,000
$279,900
$350,000
+3.26%
$150,000
(p) indicates that this month’s numbers are preliminary. The numbers may change slightly as more data is reported.
Median sales price for January 2016 ($245,500) is 3.26% higher than January 2015 ($237,750) and 7.5% higher than January of 2014 ($228,380). Seasonal prices are lowest in January, but the year-over-year increase is a good start for the 2016 residential real-estate market. Virginia may expect the median sale price to increase steadily through June, based on historic trends.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 5
January 2016 Virginia Monthly Residential Sales Volume ($B) Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos
5.00
4.50
4.33 3.95
Billions of Dollars of Residential Sales
4.00 3.51
3.50
3.30 2.97
2.94
3.00
2.73
2.59
2.80
2.78
2.64
2.50 2.22
2.07 2.00
1.73
1.84
1.74
+0.58%
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00 Oct-14
Nov-14 Dec-14
Jan-15
15-Feb 15-Mar 15-Apr May-15 Jun-15 (p) (p)
Jul-15 (p)
Aug-15 (p)
Sep-15 (p)
Oct-15 (p)
Nov-15 Dec-15 (p) (p)
Jan-16 (p)
(p) indicates that this month’s numbers are preliminary. The numbers may change slightly as more data is reported.
Sales volume was 0.58% higher this January than January 2015. Sales volume measures the total sum of each home-sale price in Virginia and therefore, generally follows sales pace and median price trends. Although there was a decrease in sales year-over-year, sales prices were 3.26% higher than in January of 2016, resulting in a small increase in sales volume.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 6
January 2016 Virginia Average Days On Market
Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 100
91 90
85
85 81
80 74
Average Days On Market
70
60
80 75
73 67
80
82
76
69 65
+7.1%
91
85
85
78
77 68
66 62
78
76
71
64
-6.6%
50
40
30
20
10
0
(p) indicates that this month’s numbers are preliminary. The numbers may change slightly as more data is reported.
Average days on the market decreased 6.6% year-over-year. Days on the market typically lengthen January and February.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 7
January 2016 Virginia Unemployment Rate
4.2%
4.1%
4.2%
4.3%
4.5%
4.8%
4.9%
4.9%
4.8%
4.8%
4.7%
4.7%
4.8%
4.8%
4.9%
5.0%
5.0%
5.3%
5.2%
5.2%
5.3%
5.3%
5.3%
5.3%
5.2%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3%
The Virginia unemployment rate increased to 4.2% in December from 4.1% in November. This small increase is not likely to impact confidence in the market unless it is sustained over several consecutive months.
Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac
4.6% 4.4% 4.2% 4.0%
3.98%
3.8% 3.6% 3.4%
3.67%
3.71%
Jan-15
Feb-15
4.05% 3.91%
3.84%
3.77%
3.89%
3.94%
3.96%
Nov-15
Dec-15
3.80%
3.87%
3.67%
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Average 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates decreased in January, bringing rates back down after increases in November and December. Virginia can expect to see continued increases following the Federal Reserve Board’s decision to increase rates, but rates may increase very slowly over time.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 8
January 2016 The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the largest professional trade association in Virginia, representing approximately 31,000 REALTORS® engaged in the residential and commercial real estate business. VAR serves as an advocate for homeownership and private property rights and represents the interests of real estate professionals and property owners in the Commonwealth of Virginia. Note: The term REALTOR® is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS® and subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics.
All inquiries regarding this report may be directed to: Martin Johnson Virginia Association of REALTORS® Martin@VARealtor.com 804-249-5708
Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by RE Stats Inc. All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere.
Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech
Page 9