blue - Security

Vontobel Private Banking The magazine for private clients Summer Edition 2010

Safety and Security: Fear is not a policy for a safe life Page 4 Security on the mountain: Robert Bösch, photographer and extreme mountaineer Page 8 Macro: The “safe” investment – wishful thinking or reality? Page 14

Security

“Security is all about having the right information and data.�

George J. Tenet, former Director of CIA

Editorial/Content blue 2/3

Editorial such as commodities, precious metals or real estate – but also in more exotic thematic investments like wood, agricultural land and art – is experiencing a renaissance, as they, too, serve the purpose of long-term capital preservation. The Swiss franc is once again being regarded as a safe haven, with demand for investments denominated in the Swiss currency rising significantly. Especially promising are Swiss blue chip companies, which are benefiting from strong exports to emerging markets.

Stable financial centres require geopolitical security. ­George Tenet, former head of the CIA under US Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, was responsible for the security of the United States during 9/11 and the Iraq War. Tenet, now jointly managing one of the most renowned family offices in the United States, granted us an exclusive insight into how he thinks and acts.

Dear readers, You are holding the new issue of “blue” in your hands, an issue that focuses this time on the theme “security”.

It’s absolutely true: we’ve seen more certain times than these! Investor behavior is still characterized by uncertainty and restraint. Not least, the high levels of public debt, as well as currency instabilities, are heightening the desire of private investors for active advice.

Photo: Robert Bösch

Security, coupled with moderate capital appreciation, is high on investors’ wish list. This will continue to be the case in the second half of the year. Investing in real assets

Ice cave in the Morteratsch

For one of the world’s top mountain climbers and photographers, the Swiss Robert Bösch, security is also a matter of actual life and death. Each step is crucial.

I am very pleased that we were able to convince these outstanding personalities to contribute to “blue”. I wish you an enjoyable read! Sincerely,

Peter Fanconi Head of Private Banking

Content Theme: Security ∙ Fear is not a policy for a safe life ∙ Robert Bösch, photographer and extreme mountaineer ∙ Headlong into the extraordinary

8 12

Macro: The “safe” investment – wishful thinking or reality?

14

Opportunities: 3D – The third dimension comes of age

18

Blue Pages: Vontobel Bulletin Board

22

Care & Share: Giving something back

24

Column: We want to be gods

25

Culture and cuisine: Inside Zürich

26

4

Glacier, Bernina region, Engadine.

Thema

In the eyes of George J. Tenet, the gathering and analysis of information is a dispassionate business. Such information, nevertheless, provides the grounds to take decisions in order to make the world a safer place. A discussion with the former Director of Central Intelligence of the United States of America.

Interview: Peter Fanconi & Simone Ramser

Topic: Safety and Security

Fear is not a policy for a safe life Is there a job specification for the Director of Central Intelligence?

The job specifications of the Director of Central Intelligence are no different than for a Chief Executive of a large enterprise. There really are no differences between running the CIA and running a large cooperation. There is no profit and loss in terms of money, but there is profit and loss in terms of the quality of the analysis that you produce, the quality of the human and technical operations that you run, the service that you present to your principle client – the President of the United States. Any for-profit

cared about politics. This is a dispassionate and apolitical business of providing information.

corporation has the mission of making money; we have the responsibility to take all the data that we collect and in the end provide the President of the United States with the best analytical judgments we can to protect our country and our allies. The CIA is a very rigorous, disciplined, and focused professional organization with standards and ethics, guided by the law.

What kind of relationship does the Director of the CIA have with the President of the United States?

The interaction differs with each President. The issue ultimately is: How does the President want to receive his information in the morning? In the Clinton Administration, I did not see the President every day although every day, the President received a document entitled “The President’s Daily Brief”. President Clinton read it and posed many questions. We had a staff of people that came in late in the afternoon and worked all night to produce this document. This is the principle vehicle to inform the President every morning of the most important things. In the Clinton Administration, the National Security Advisor would basically walk the President through the document. In the Bush Administration, President Bush insisted on seeing me along with one of my colleagues six days a week.

So, I was with him, the Vice President and the National Security Advisor every morning. Both Presidents were very intimately involved in understanding our business. Both of them had an acute understanding of what we said, what we wrote, knew where we were, understood our business.

Security is all about having the right information and data.

You are one of the very few people who actually served under both a Democrat and a Republican President.

It was the first time in 30 years that we have done that.

Dick Helms did it between Nixon and Johnson. I did it between Presidents Clinton and Bush. Another part of our process is quite important: Politics never matter. Neither I nor the intelligence professionals who worked with me

In your book, “At the Center of the Storm”, you write about the CIA during America’s time of crisis. How has the world changed almost ten years after the World Trade Center attack?

The difference between terrorism and conventional warfare is that you never know whether you are winning or losing. We spent a lot of time trying to understand why

„Ninety per cent of what happens in the world is based on personal relation­ ships with people.“

blue 4/5

Photo: Ben Baker, Redux/laif

George J. Tenet, 18th Director of Central Intelligence

Book tip: At the Center of the Storm: The CIA During America’s Time of Crisis by George Tenet, published by Perennial.

George Tenet (born 5 January 1953) served as the Director of Central Intelligence from 1997 until 2004. In this position, he led the United States Intelligence Community and presided over the daily activities of the Central Intelligence Agency. Prior to his appointment, Mr. Tenet served as Deputy Director of Central Intelligence, having been confirmed in that post in July 1995. In December 1996, he was named Acting Director.

Prior to his role with the Central Intelligence Agency, he served in a number of positions

regarding National Security. From September 2004 through December 2007, Mr. Tenet was a member of the Faculty of the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University as Distinguished Professor in the Practice of Diplomacy and Senior Research Associate in the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy. Today, Mr. Tenet is a Managing Director with Allen & Company.

He is married to Stephanie Glakas-Tenet, and has a son.

a young man between the ages of 28 and 40 is recruited into a terrorist organization. What is it about the social, economic, and religious views that come together, that allow an extremist message to resonate? The vast majority of Muslims are peace-loving people who in their own cultural and religious context want to create societies, to grow their families, and to create opportunities. They need to create well functioning civil societies that provide educational and economic opportunities for their citizens – to prove that violence is not the solution for grievances that may exist.

Nevertheless, do we feel safer today than we did ten years ago?

From an American perspective, we would arguably say that we have created structures and institutions inside the United States that in fact have made us safer. We have hurt the operational leadership of Al-Qaeda. Are we better off than we were? Yes. Are we finished with the problem? No. We are safer today but continued vigilance is essential. I think this is a generational issue that will require consistent debate, cooperation, review of our tactics, our thinking, our strategy. It will also require the active engagement of our allies around the world. This is a very long-term project.

Is there no such thing as a safe place or a safe country in the world?

protecting American families and families of our friends overseas. We believed that we were trying to do what was good for the world. We woke up every day thinking how to do the very best we could. Yet, there is a great amount of pressure: it takes a personal toll on your family because you are never home, you are never around your kids. But in the end, there is a spirit of service and commitment in America. And with that kind of commitment and discip­ line, you work through difficult times. Now, as the leader, you have to lead from a position of confidence, even in the worst of times. President Truman used to say: “If you cannot stand the heat, get out of the kitchen.” Well, this is a very hot kitchen.

But you can only do it for so long. I did it for a long time, and then there came a moment when I could not do it any longer. It was time to step down and move on. Seven years is a long time in one of those jobs. But in the end, time is a healing in the sense that you can reflect on things a little bit differently and impart the lessons learned to future generations.

Many Americans have a unique determination to serve their country. Is this peculiar to the United States?

At Georgetown University, the Jesuits taught us that we had a responsibility to serve something larger than ourselves. Georgetown inspired many of us with a universal sense of responsibility. Americans have a deep sense of patriotism and care for our country.

There is no higher calling than the commitment to serve your country in the United States. And the people who do it feel very deeply about their service. Money is not what motivates those who serve. People have a deep feeling that they are doing something that is important and right. I always tell young people, “You can always go make money – that is not hard to do. But when you are 70 years old, and your grandchildren are sitting on your lap, you will have not much better stories to tell them than anybody else.” And life is about the accumulation of stories of real sacrifices on behalf of others. You could not pay me enough money for the 23 years that I served. And I know that what I learned will serve me for the rest of my life.

„I have met kings and queens and prime ministers, but my dad and my mom were the two greatest people that I have ever known.“ People have to be mindful of the fact that fear is not a policy for a safe life. Our openness, our societies, our institutions, the opportunities we provide are a strength.

And at the same time, we have to have security processes in place that increase the probability that we will stop things from happening before they happen in order to avoid the loss of innocent lives. There is a tension between openness and security that requires constant debate. We need the cooperation of Europe, the Muslim world, North African countries, and Asian countries to make the world a safer place. There is a worldwide coalition of like-minded individuals who cooperate, communicate, and do their very best. Essentially, the level of cooperation consistently gets better.

On a more personal level, how have you actually been able to cope with the enormous pressure that comes with such a function?

As the leader of an organization, the first thing you have to do is to surround yourself with the very best people.

You need to have a team of people who are independent thinkers that you trust and work with, who have the same passion for the mission. It was very tough at times, very difficult; but at the same time, there was a real passion to serve among all of us. We believed in the mission of

You were previously the Director of the CIA, a professor at Georgetown and today a Managing Director at Allen & Company. Is there something common to all of these experiences?

There is one thing that is very similar in all my jobs. Ninety percent of what happens in the world is based on deep personal relationships with people. Allen & Company is an 88-year old firm run by the third generation of the Allen family. And the thing we pride ourselves on most is deep, long-standing relationships with entrepreneurs, financial institutions, CEOs, business leaders people we have known for a long time. It was no different in government, or in earning the trust of your students. Of course, I learned many new things in the business world.

And it has been great because the ability to change careers when you are in your mid-fifties does not come along often. But relationships based on trust are the core of our business.

Thema blue 6/7

You have met many influential and interesting personalities. Which of all these people have impressed you most?

I have met kings and queens and prime ministers, but my dad and my mom were the two greatest people that I have ever known. My parents were immigrants. My father came to the United States before the Great Depression and went into the restaurant business. He did not speak English. He had no relatives here. He did not have a nickel in his pocket. My mother had escaped from what is today, Southern Albania during the Greek Civil War, on a British submarine and was a refugee in Rome, Cairo, and Athens, before she married my father. I grew up in a restaurant.

My father got a thirdgrade education, and I do not think that my mother ever went to school. My father was a keen observer of history and politics. Our dinner table was always about what was going on in the world. He knew everything about politics: he understood the world.

Photo: Ben Baker, Redux/laif

These two people came to the United States and insisted that their sons get an education. I am fortunate to live in a country that allows the sons and daughters of immigrants to aspire and realize their dreams. I never saw two people work harder in life to take care of their family than my

George J. Tenet believes that life is about being passionate and loving what you do.

mother and father. And I have never forgotten the lessons they taught us.

If you are passing forward values to your son and future generations, what values are key for you?

Before my mother died last spring, the priest asked her, “Mrs. Tenet, you raised two very successful sons, and you have been through a lot. What was the key to all of this for you?” So this old Greek woman looked at the priest and said: “Two things: faith and discipline.” So, I would say faith and discipline. But I would also say a couple of other things. There is also trust and honesty. And I think, your word is your bond. You say what you are going to do, and you do it. And you constantly try to improve as a human being. You listen to other people. You are tolerant of other people. I want my son to understand that life is about a series of experiences based on tolerance and trust.

There is no plan. It is about being passionate and loving what you do. When you shake hands with somebody and say you are going to do something, you live up to the commitment of that word. The rest of it is pretty easy: keep it simple.

Allen & Company is a globally recognized family office and investment firm founded in New York in 1922 by members of the Allen family. In additional to principal investing, the firm provides services in investment banking, asset management, and insti­ tutional sales and trading primarily in Europe and the Middle East. The firm’s investment banking and merger and acquisition advisory practice has played a key role in many prominent merger and acquisition transactions, particularly in the media, entertainment, and Internet sectors. The firm has approximately 165 employees and is closely held.

Every year, the company organizes the prestigious Allen & Company Conference at Sun Valley, where headline names from the media, entertainment, computer, and Internet worlds meet.

Theme

Text: Johann Thalheimer

blue 8/9

Theme: Security on the mountain

Robert Bösch, photographer and extreme mountaineer Robert Bösch has been to places in his life that few others dare to venture: the summits of six, seven and eight thousand-meter peaks. For 35 years, these mountains have been part of his passion. But Bösch devotes an even larger part of his passion to photography. For many years he has been considered one of the world’s pre-eminent alpine photographers.

How it all started It’s actually amazing that the alpine world has become a focal point of Robert Bösch’s life. After all, he grew up in Schlieren near Zurich – that is to say, in Switzerland’s “flatlands”, where the highest point manages to reach exactly 569 meters above sea level. But his parents were often on trips in the Swiss Alps. At some point, this spark jumped over to their son, and at the age of 20 he began to explore the more extreme variations of mountaineering.

It’s conceivable that the only reason he studied geography was so he could spend more time outdoors. At least when Bösch thinks back to his university days, he has the impression that he spent more time in the mountains than in the lecture hall.

With his university studies behind him, the Zurich native then aimed to become a mountain guide, but, having passed the exam, ended up only taking part-time jobs in this line of work. It’s the task of mountain guides to keep their groups as far away as possible from risky situations, but it was just precisely these challenges that the young Robert Bösch was looking for. He found them and mas-

A two-man rope team on the Ecstasy Route on the Klausen Pass.

The climbers cling like ants to the overhanging rock faces, moving toward the summit, inch by inch.

Photographer Robert Bösch takes a breather on a narrow arête on the north face of the Eiger.

Photo: Ueli Steck

The list of Robert Bösch’s alpine conquests is impressive in its length and includes summits on every continent. He has climbed the highest mountains in Latin America, Aconcagua in Argentina (6962 meters) and Yerupaja in Peru (6635 meters). In Asia, he has conquered imposing summits in China, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan and Nepal, including Mt. Everest (8300 meters), Broad Peak (8035 meters), Khan Tengri (7010 meters) and Ama Dablam (6856 meters). Australia, Oman, Jordan, Antarctica and the United States are all on his list, as most certainly are the Alps as well, with many of their most majestic and difficult peaks.

Best of all, on many of his climbs Bösch offers an audience “front-row seats” by means of his spectacular photographic images, to be found in many renowned magazines and elegant coffee table books.

„Nobody becomes an extreme climber because he’s attracted by the nice view from the mountaintop.” generation of top climbers draws the boundary between the possible and the impossible anew. And year after year, these limits are ratcheted another notch higher.

This has never disturbed Bösch, because in fact he takes pride in another achievement, his photography. In this field, he stands among the small coterie of top photographers who have made their mark on the perception of mountains today with their spectacular work. Bösch’s fascinating images regularly appear in leading magazines such as National Geographic Adventure, Geo, Stern and Der Spiegel, and are exhibited in numerous galleries and museums.

Over the last three decades, Bösch has witnessed the changes in the sport of mountaineering from up close, and

seen how it continues to fan out more and more. The outdoor movement has created new sports such as free climb­ ing, ice climbing, snowboarding, mountain biking and paragliding. Bösch is involved with many of these sports in his role as a photographer. Each one has its attractions. But he happily returns again and again to the alpine photography where it all started.

It’s the achievement, not the view Among extreme mountaineers, Bösch has a wide network and many friends. Extreme mountaineers are a particular sort of person, with qualities that other people simply don’t have. Above all, they are very achievementoriented. “Nobody becomes an extreme climber because he’s attracted by the nice view from the mountaintop,” says Bösch. The fact that almost every mountain has already seen its first ascent long ago is not discouraging to extreme mountaineers, who merely look for new goals to reach – for example, a more difficult route, one that has never yet been taken. Thus the goal is no longer just to reach the summit but to do it mastering the new route. Or the old route, but faster. Bösch photographs the climbers as they take on these challenges.

To minimize risks while on the mountain, Bösch proceeds very systematically, both as a mountaineer and as a photographer. He analyzes everything that could await him on the planned climb, working out intensively and continuously monitoring his physical, technical and mental readiness for the stresses expected. He ponders whether he has the required experience and whether the composition of his team will work. Only when everything is right can he begin, “always in the knowledge that we’re taking

Photo: Robert Bösch

tered them. When it comes to his alpine achievements, Bösch is quite modest; although he knows that 20 or 30 years ago he made some very respectable ascents, he also realizes that he would no longer dare some of them today, at age 55. He is also aware that time has not stood still.

The accomplishments of the past are history. Each new

Photo: Robert Bรถsch

Photo: Robert Bösch

The Patagonian mountains near the Perito Moreno glacier are both fascinating and inhospitable at the same time, untouched by any human influence and strangely timeless.

Extreme climber Ueli Steck negotiates an icefall in Pontresina.

The smallest movement requires the highest degree of concentration from the climber if he wants to make it safely through the glassy wall of ice.

risks at every turn.” In Bösch’s experience, it is often routine terrain that is truly dangerous. Here, many climbers drop their guard – and that’s when accidents happen.

Mountain climbers don’t like to talk about accidents. But Robert Bösch believes that anyone who has been an avid climber for many years, and is still alive, has certainly experienced a few situations where he would have to say, “That was close.” He himself recognizes that he has cheated death on a number of occasions. Once on the infamous north face of the Eiger, he found himself in a rock slide and looked up to see enormous hunks of rock crashing down directly towards him. Miraculously, they smashed all round him, with only one small stone hitting his helmet. Another time, he actually did fall, and after spinning around managed to grab hold of a projecting rock which was all that prevented him from plunging to his death below. “Yes, that was good luck, but also an incredible reflex that was only possible because of an absolute will to survive.”

Theme blue 10/11

In the conflict of emotions On each climb, extreme mountaineers experience a gamut of emotions, taking them from the highest high to he lowest low. “When you’re in the middle of some dramatic

situation, hanging on a mountain face somewhere, not knowing if you’re going to get off again in one piece, you curse yourself and wish you had never started the climb,” says Bösch. “But once you’re out of the danger zone, these doubts are immediately suppressed, and even while you’re in the middle of one climb, you’re already planning the next one.”

It’s a curse, says Bösch: “When I’m up, I want down.

When I’m down, I want to be up.” Conflicting emotions that never stop. Yet something has changed over the years. In 35 years of mountain climbing, Bösch has made so many ascents that he no longer feels the need to top himself. Even if he is still at a very demanding level, climb­ ing and mountaineering no longer have the same importance in his life as before. If it used to be an all-consuming addiction, today the dose he needs is much lower. Then he adds: “There are other things in life.”

What are these “other things” in the life of Robert Bösch?

“It’s true, I’ll probably still be climbing around in the mountains when I’m 65,” he laughs. “It‘s a great thing to do, something I’ve never grown tired of. Photography is something I’ll still be pursuing for many more years.” Bösch, who also works as an industrial and sports photographer, can imagine that his focus will slowly shift.

“Landscape photography interests me more and more,” he says. A book of artistic landscape photography is al­ ready in preparation.

More info: www.robertboesch.ch

Theme

Text: Heike Isselhorst

Theme: Safety in the air

Headlong into the extraordinary Big dippers – or roller coasters to our friends across the water – are the jewel in the crown of the art of engineer­ ing. Spectacular loop-the-loops, breathtaking free-fall passages, or vertiginous upside-down straightaways: every day, around the world, thousands of thrill-seekers go looking for that calculated kick. For almost twenty years, the Munich-based company Maurer Söhne has developed and built roller coasters that put nerves on edge all around the globe.

Click! Once the safety bar is locked in place, there’s no more turning back. When the train starts moving is the moment when many passengers find that the courage, which had seemed so solid only a few moments earlier, has now abandoned them. The ride up to the installation’s highest point seems to take forever. There, on reaching the giddy heights, the tension among the passengers seems to be almost palpable. Then comes the dizzying plunge into the abyss, the cars racing down the track at speeds up to 140 kilometers and hour, followed by a deft series of loops and spirals.

Crowd magnets Roller coasters have always been part of the key attractions at carnivals, fairs and amusement parks. The very first coaster – in those days in the form of a simple figure 8 – was opened in the U.S. already at the end of the 19th century. And still today, it is the North Americans who are the most fanatic about roller coasters. But everywhere else in the world as well, the calculated kick has become part of the leisure scene as well. As CEO of Maurer Söhne, one of the world’s leading manufacturers of roller coasters and other rides, Jörg Beutler understands what it is that makes

Maurer Söhne GmbH & Co. KG was founded in Munich in 1876 and is one of the leading companies in structural steel, machine and facilities design. In 2009, the company’s 700 employees worldwide generated a turnover of 110 million Euros. The firm’s head office and primary production site is in Munich, with a branch located in Lünen near Dortmund and a subsidiary production plant in Bernsdorf near Dresden. The company also owns production facilities in China and Turkey, and has subsidiaries and representative offices located in over 50 other countries.

his company’s installations so magnetic: “Roller coasters already attract your attention because of their size and eye-catching design. Every coaster has its own individual character, and right up to the end, each ride remains thrilling because of its own special drama and art direction.”

But leaving aside the technical sophistication, it all comes down to one thing: “Roller coasters are fun.”

The frisson of fear – without the risk In contrast to extreme sports, which are also all about the “buzz”, roller coasters offer the possibility of experiencing the thrill of fear without any real danger. In order to make sure that the rides provide pure pleasure without risk, the highest safety standards apply all round the world to the construction and operation of roller coasters. The design and construction of roller coasters differ significantly from other steel structures. The special challenge for the designers lies in the connection between structural steel engineering and mechanical engineering. Jörg Beutler and his team know from years of experience what is important. “The spatially curved structures of the rails make the whole thing very demanding from a manufacturing point of view. It requires the highest level of precision, so that the dynamic load of the car corresponds to the calculation, and you don’t exceed the limits of the forces acting on the passengers.” The security systems of roller coasters are expensive and redundant several times over. Even if a component were to fail, or the staff would make a mistake operating the roller coaster, there is no risk to the passengers. “When you visit an amusement park, by far the biggest risk you are taking is on the drive there in your car,” adds Jörg Beutler.

From planning to loop-the-loop New roller coasters are all the more successful, the more spectacular and surprising they are. As the CEO of Maurer Söhne explains: “What should happen on a roller coaster is that the human body is brought to a state that it never experiences in normal day-to-day life, and therefore pumps out large amounts of adrenaline.” To keep the thrill from fading, the coasters must continuously throw new elements and combinations at the riders. “When design­ i­ng a roller coaster, we are consciously aiming to take the riders by surprise – trying to maximize the subjective sensation of danger,” says Beutler, “although in fact the ride is never actually dangerous, of course.” The first riders to experience the thrill of a new roller coaster at Maurer Söhne is a set of water-filled plastic dummies outfitted with acceleration sensors. With their help, a coaster can be measured precisely after the very first test run. Once

blue 12/13

it is certain that all the calculations are in agreement, the first real human passengers can climb aboard. For the most part, Jörg Beutler leaves the maiden voyage to his colleagues. “That’s a job we leave to the development engineers. They can see right away whether they can cope with their own designs.”

On the horizon Many roller coasters already exist today that exert shortterm forces of up to 6 g’s on their riders’ bodies, i.e. six times the force of gravity. This is the maximum limit the human body can take, so in this particular area no further superlatives are possible. To make sure that the public continues to throng to roller coasters, Maurer Söhne is turning to electronics and multimedia technology. “We have developed a ride, absolutely unique in the world, called the ‘Music Coaster’. Every passenger chooses his very own special request from a wide selection of song titles, and then makes the trip surrounded by 100 Watts

of stereo sound – a completely individual experience.”

But it is developments in the field of augmented reality – i.e. the computer-enhanced perception of what you are seeing in reality – that will massively change the world of roller coasters. Jörg Beutler has a clear vision of the future: “Augmented reality will transport the riders into totally different worlds. Roller coasters will become huge simulators that optimize the sensation of acceleration and movement.”

So the roller coaster is set to remain a guaranteed nervewracker In future as well, throwing down the gauntlet for brave thrill seekers all round the world. Jörg Beutler’s favourite roller coasters are the ones that render their passengers weightless for long phases – although it wasn’t always the case. “For me, I needed a lot of practice before I could really enjoy the rides. But today, nothing scares me any more!”

Head over heels into hilarity. Complex security

Photo: www.coastersandmore.de

Photo: PD Maurer Söhne

systems ensure a thrilling ride without risk.

In amusement parks around the world, the spectacular roller coasters made by Maurer Söhne are among the main attractions.

Photo: Getty Images

Navigating through stormy waters requires experience and understanding on the part of the helmsman. The same is true for private investors looking for safe investments in volatile markets.

Macro

Text: Dr. Thomas Steinemann, Chief Strategist of the Vontobel Group

blue 14/15

Macro

The “safe” investment – wishful thinking or reality? economist and Yale professor Robert Shiller has repeatedly pointed out that the volatility of equity markets is too high.

His simple reasoning: the current price of a share reflects the present value of its future dividends. And since dividend payouts have demonstrated relatively small swings, the volatility of the stock market itself should also be relatively low. In Figure 1, the actual performance of the American stock market is mapped against the theoretical fair value calculated by discounting dividends paid out. The temporar­ ily sharp deviations of the stock market compared to its fair value indicate show that over the long term, equity markets behave in accordance with their theoretical value and are thus efficient, but in the short term, they tend toward under and over-performance.

For many investors, the developments on the stock market in 2007 and 2008 resulted in experiences that ranged from sobering to painful. As a consequence, a phenom­ enon well-known in the financial industry became more acute: Whenever share prices weaken and depress portfolio values into the red, the call for safety becomes quite loud indeed. It is not uncommon for disappointed investors to decide that in future, they will no longer invest as much, or at all, in equities. And they sell their share holdings – often at the worst moment. Then, as a rule, when an upturn follows the crash, this anxiety over losses quickly evaporates, and investors’ risk tolerance goes right back up. The longer the boom, the more pronounced is the desire to make up for losses incurred – a fallacy that ultimately ends in the investors re-entering the stock market, but now at a much higher price.

A question of self-evaluation and time horizon It is an open secret that a large number of investors over­ estimate their own risk preference and / or risk tolerance.

At the same time, fluctuations in the stock markets are often underestimated. An investor might object here that the stock markets have generated a negative return over the last ten years. In actual fact, the real (inflation-adjusted) return, for example for the US stock market, has been –4.5 percent per year. If you extend the time horizon back to 1970, however, the inflation-adjusted annual return is around 5.0 percent. Add 70 more years into the calculation, i.e. back to the year 1900, and the real per annum return is 6.2 percent for equities and 1.9 percent for bonds.

The sometimes nerve-wrecking ups and downs on the stock markets are given the relatively sober term “volatility” in the professional world, a word deriving from the Latin volatilis for “flying”, thus: flighty. The concept denotes the range of a share’s past price fluctuations. The higher the volatility, the riskier the equity. A share that experiences sharp price swings is thus said to have high volatility. For investors, this means the chance to make large profits, quickly, but also the risk of losing money just as quickly. So much for the theory. In practice, on the other hand, the US

Figure 1: S&P 500 vs. fair value based on discounted dividends Source: Grossmann and Shiller 1981; Shiller 1987 (chart), Vontobel analysis

600 500 S&P 500 Index 400 300 200

Fair value based on discounted dividends

100 0 1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

Diversification is the magic word An investor who wants to deal effectively with the fluctuations in the stock market can extend his investment period, thus diversifying over time. Another option is to diversify via different asset classes. Adding into the mix other asset classes which do not, or only marginally, correlate with equities, will sustainably reduce the volatility of a portfolio.

The volatility of an all-stock portfolio is about 20 percent, while that of a diversified multi-asset class portfolio, which in addition to shares also holds bonds, alternative investments and important thematic investments such as commodities, is still about 7 percent. A volatility of 7% per year means that the return on such a portfolio can vary from the expected return with a certain probability of plus or minus 7% within a year.

Risk metrics – an overview Volatility or standard deviation is the best-known measure of a portfolio’s risk and is easy to understand and work with. The disadvantage is that it is based on a so-called normal distribution of share returns, an assumption which has been in some doubt at least since the famous book by Nicholas Taleb, “The Black Swan”. Another common measure of risk, which has been the object of some criticism in the recent financial crisis, however, is Value at Risk (VaR). This indicates the largest loss likely to be suffered by a given portfolio over a specified holding period with a given probability or confidence level. It is a measure used primarily in risk management for banks, but also by corporate treasurers. A third well-known risk metric is max­ imum loss, also known as maximum drawdown.

This figure represents the greatest cumulative loss of capital a portfolio will suffer before a new high is once again reached. In other words, it answers the question: “If you enter the market at the worst possible time, how big will your cumulative loss be until the portfolio value has managed to climb back again to the level it was at when you entered the market?”

Another way to reduce portfolio volatility is through active portfolio management. The aim here is to generate the highest possible return for a given level of risk, measured against a benchmark; or, for a given return, to enter into the smallest possible risk. To succeed, active portfolio management requires a high degree of investment competence and is considered the real pinnacle of expertise in the world of finance.

Not to be underestimated: flexible bond funds The use of asymmetric investment products represents the next opportunity to increase the safety of a portfolio.

Asymmetric products benefit from rising markets while promising a certain amount of protection in falling markets. These can be structured products which, for example, offer capital protection, or investment funds that are set up to be flexible enough to achieve a positive return even in a negative market scenario. Currently such instruments

are of particular interest in the area of interest rates. Yields on government bonds are currently at historic lows. The probability of higher interest rates in the coming years – and the associated loss of value for bonds held now – has increased significantly. In such an environment, so-called flexible bond funds provide a special advantage (see Box 2). Such a bond fund, because of its flexible investment style, can also benefit from rising interest rates, which is not the case if the investor holds bonds directly.

Safety has its price The aspect of safety does not only play a role in the context of returns and volatility. Liquidity is an important aspect. Especially during the current crisis, relatively illiquid investments such as corporate bonds have proven to be difficult or even impossible to sell. This is why such investment classes, as a rule, generate greater income, rewarding the investor with a premium for accepting the illiquidity. Safety in investing therefore has a price. The greater the desire for lower risk with positive returns, the lower these returns must be. This is because high returns are the compensation investors receive for entering into various risks, be they the risks of liquidity and default, or of large fluctuations in value, as is the case with equities.

At the other end of the scale, one doesn’t find government bonds, because they will lose value in the future when interest rates start to rise again, but rather money market instruments and treasury bills, which generate a small – but safe – interest income.

Look before you leap For successful investing, a clear understanding of the risks involved is of fundamental importance. Investors are therefore well advised to develop the appropriate investment strategy together with their client advisor.

What is needed is a long-term perspective. This is the only way to ensure that the agreed investment strategy won’t be called into question as soon as there is a short-term change in the winds. The well-known Swiss stock exchange expert and author Marc Faber makes the point in his market commentary of July 2010 when he says: “I feel that most investors take far too many risks – often with borrowed money – and fail to diversify sufficiently. They also have little patience, very short-term time horizons and no tolerance for losses. Finally, their expectations about investment returns are completely unrealistic.” This is a challenge for investors and investment advisors alike. It is imperative that they ask the right questions. These include clarifying the client’s risk tolerance and aversion, his current standard of living and future plans, as well as the time horizon for the investment. If these elementary questions are not asked or not answered, investment success is certain to be an illusion.

Macro blue 16/17

The financial crisis was the litmus test for many Absolute Return strategies. In particular, funds with a high proportion of corporate bonds got into difficulty, while others posted positive returns even in the crisis.

Yet the idea of an Absolute Return strategy remains convincing. It addresses a real client need – especially in uncertain times like these.

Absolute Return Bond products generally follow a so-called “multi-strategy” approach. This attempts to rapidly exploit the various available opportunities by selecting bond strategies that offer promising prospects in the given market phase. At least 50% of the portfolio is invested in bonds from core markets such as Germany, Australia or the USA. Complement­ ing these, government bonds from non-core markets, and supranational bonds, offer advantages of yield and diversification. All these bonds are highly liquid.

In boom phases, the proportion invested in corporate and emerging-market bonds is raised and thus increases the yield. In periods of declining economic activity, these investments are normally reduced again, to avoid the risks of widening interest rate differentials (spreads) compared to government bonds, and declining liquidity. The duration of the fund will be maintained between minus three and plus seven years.

In the case of negative duration, the fund – as op­ posed to other products – generates profits even with rising interest rates.

Photo: Sandro Diener

Absolute Return concepts obsolete?

Not by a long shot!

In an uncertain environment with low interest rates and limited growth prospects, investors are looking for solutions that offer both return and safety. Is this even possible? Anna Holzgang, Head of Fixed Income for the Vontobel Group, is convinced the answer is yes: “Intelligent Absolute Return products aim to achieve positive returns in any market environment.” Absolute Return products are based on the widest range of different investment strategies. Within the product range, you will find bond-based solutions along with multi-asset class solutions, hedge funds and guarantee products. If these strategies are implemented properly, Absolute Return funds can generate attractive returns over an entire economic cycle.

Dr. Thomas Steinemann, Chief Strategist of the Vontobel Group.

Opportunities

The best example of the success story of 3D technology is “Avatar”. Although the feature film was produced at great expense, James Cameron's blockbuster already recouped its production costs of 300 million US dollars on the very weekend it was released. Up to now it has generated, worldwide, over a billion dollars for the coffers of Twentieth Century Fox. Text: Georg von Wattenwyl, Head of Financial Products / Advisory & Distribution

Opportunities: Consumer Electronics and Mobile Entertainment

3D: The third dimension comes of age In consumer electronics and mobile entertainment in particular, 3D technology has set a revolution in motion.

this small difference, the brain is able to estimate how far away an object is. This creates a vivid impression. Using so-called shutter glasses, one eye’s vision is darkened, so that the image it sees registers in the brain with a sight delay. Wheatstone transferred this method to the newlyinvented art of “photography” and had stereoscopic images produced. Many scientists worked on the further development of the process.

The world of three dimensionalization has spread far and wide. Whether in movies, television, cameras, laptops, game consoles or smart phones, three-dimensional visualization can be found everywhere today. This is not just a flash in the pan; questions about spatial vision have already occupied people for many years. 3D is a common From the cinema directly into the living room abbreviation for “three dimensional” and a synonym for Gradually, this optimized form of visualization has made “spatial body”. Using the so-called stereoscopic method, its way into different media, and since the success of the a picture is shifted, and the result is an impression of movie spectacle “Avatar” from James Cameron, the 3D actual spatial depth. The British physicist Charles Wheatwave has been revolutionizing the film industry. Using stone dealt extensively with the problem of spatial vision special imaging techniques combining real and computer in 1832. Wheatstone constructed a viewing device with graphic effects, a visual world was created the likes of which objects could be viewed which had never been seen before. from different angles. His inven­ Movie-goers were so excited that tion, which he called a stereoscope, in Germany, the success of the new contained a number of mirrors three-dimensional visualization cat­ which duplicated images in order to apulted 2009’s box office figures to produce the desired effect. Like 3D the highest level in the last 60 years. glasses, which are now used in the In Hollywood, a virtual 3D fever has movies, the stereoscope separates broken out, and there is hardly a the images for the right and left single animated film that will not be eye. The term “stereo” comes from released in a three-dimensional Greek and means “physical”. The version. But the producers of livestereoscope thus makes it possible action movies are also investing a to see “physically”, i.e. “spatially”. lot of energy and money into the To create the spatial effect, all it promising new technology as well.

Already in the 19th century, the stereoscope does is succeed at an optical trick.

The American film producer Jeffrey enabled spatial vision.

Our eyes take in all the sights of our Katzenberg, chairman of the daily lives, but with about a 6½-centimeter distance from animation studio DreamWorks, believes that “in five to each other. Consequently, the right pupil sees the world seven years, all movies will be made in 3D.” from a slightly different angle than the left. Thanks to

blue 18/19

Illustration p. 18: Corbis / Photo p.19: AFP

Whether it’s action or cartoons, in today’s movie industry you will be hard-pressed to find an animated film that isn’t being released in 3D.

The entire IT sector is energetically working on the further development of the 3D world. For example, with a video game project, Microsoft aims to revolutionize the experience. Players don’t send signals to the game by means of the console, but rather through the movements of their bod­ies. In this way, playing a video game becomes com­ pletely intuitive.

going a step further and are occupying themselves with the ­development of a display which achieves the 3D effect without glasses. Some examples are already operational in video game consoles and mobile phones. The first 3D TV channel in Europe, which the British pay-TV broadcaster BSkyB has been offering since April 2010, also requires no glasses.

Soon without the special glasses?

At least since “Avatar”, the term three-dimensional is on everyone’s lips. The major manufacturers of television sets have reacted quickly to the new trend and are now starting to bring 3D models onto the market. Electronics companies such as Samsung, Sony, Sharp, Panasonic and Toshiba are busily working on new technologies that will obviate the need to wear special glasses, which is the more or less unpleasant part of the experience. The solution is to put the glasses directly on the screen. For the technology industry this is a great challenge, because in order to achieve the spatial effect, each eye must be provided with a slightly different image. Some technology companies are now

Future technology as an investment theme The following chart shows the average annual growth rates of different digital media tools from 2001 to 2007. These numbers underscore the growing importance of 3D technologies. Accordingly, businesses working in this field could have an advantage.

Bank Vontobel makes investment in this trend accessible through a tracker certificate. For more information, use the order form provided.

Digital media tools – average annual growth rates Source: M2 Research

Photo: Getty Images

Earnings in %

Jeffrey Katzenberg, CEO of Dreamworks, sees 3D technology as the future of the movie industry.

Opportunities blue 20/21

Thumbnail sketches of some of the technology companies operating in the 3D field Source: Bank Vontobel AG

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. South Korean-based Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. is a technology company (semiconductors) and the largest domestic manufacturer of electronic appliances. The company produces, among other products, DVD players, TVs, VCRs, digital cameras, Autodesk Inc.

hard drives, PC monitors, printers,

Autodesk Inc. is a technology company

and RAM chips. As of March 2010,

(software) based in the United States of

Samsung introduced a range of 3D

America. The company provides solutions

TV to the market, such as 3D-enabled

for creating, managing and sharing digital

LED and plasma devices, LCD-TV

assets for 3D modeling, animation, render­

series, Blu-Ray home theater systems

ing and compositing, especially for video

with matching accessories such as 3D

game developers, VFX artists and graphic

glasses.

designers in games, film and TV productions. It specializes in the 3D visualization needs of architects and engineers in civil and mechanical engineering.

Sony Corporation Sony Corporation is a consumer goods companies (consumer electronics) based Dassault Systèmes SA

in Japan. Sony products include 3D LCD

Dassault Systèmes SA is a French-based technology company spe­

televisions, 3D DVD and Blu-Ray players,

cializing in graphic design. The company is the world's leading pro-

computers and laptops (Vaio), digital came-

vider of 3D and PLM (Product Lifecycle Management) solutions and

ras and camcorders, portable audio devices

innovative software. With the solutions SolidWorks, CATIA, SIMULIA,

and headphones, stereo and home theater

DELMIA, ENOVIA and 3DVIA, users are able to develop, share and

systems, electronic reading devices and

experience their products in 3D.

car stereos. Other Sony products include Playstation 3 with Blu-Ray disc and Sony Ericsson mobile devices.

What are tracker certificates?

In general, certificates are investment instruments that are categorized as structured financial products. They are issued by banks and sold to institutional investors, financial intermediaries and private clients. Certificates enable investors to replicate strategies or to make investments in thematic areas that otherwise are not easily accessible, such as 3D. Tracker certificates belong to the category of participation products and, because of the captivatingly simple way they work, have long been among the most popular structur­ ed products. They give investors the possibility to invest flexibly and cost-effectively in all types of underlying assets without having to buy the underlying asset itself on the stock exchange. This is particularly advantageous when this underlying asset is an index or basket and therefore consists

of many individual securities. A basket of shares, for example, bundles together a number of individual equities, forming a combined, single underlying investment. So that investors purchasing a single certificate don’t need to spend thousands of francs, most tracker certificates are assigned a subscription ratio.

For example, a certificate with a ratio of 0.1 is worth one tenth of the underlying index. Thus an investment in tracker certificates is possible even with smaller amounts. In general, tracker certificates are suitable when investors expect prices to rise, do not want to deal with buying individual shares, and want to broadly diversify their risk. Tracker certificates are offered in both fixed-term variants as well as open-ended, i.e. for an unlimited period.

Blue Pages blue 22/23

Blue Pages

Vontobel Bulletin Board High quality of Vontobel sustainability funds confirmed The independent rating agency Telos examines investment processes and teams. In June, they bestowed an AA rating on the Vontobel Global Responsibility Funds. These funds are actively managed and invest in shares of sustainable enterprises in different regions.

More info at www.vontobel.com.

Vontobel establishes new business unit for US private clients s Wealth With the launch of Vontobel Swis established a Advisors, the Vontobel Group has clients with rican new company to look after Ame pany is com declared assets. The Zurich-based and rities Secu subject to supervision by the US oper­ the ding Exchange Commission (SEC). Hea tin Mar is pany ational aspects of the new com Steger (37).

The latest monograph from the Vontobel Foundation The current edition of the series of Vontobel Foundation publications is dedicated to looking at the theme “Cows” from all possible angles. Illustrated by Magi Wechsler, its author is 67-year old Marc Valance. To order a copy: www.vontobel-stiftung.ch.

New head of Hamburg office From 1 October 2010, Volker Schwarz, aged 43, will take over as head of Private Banking in the Hamburg office of Bank Vontobel Europe AG. Joining us from a senior position at Hauck&Aufhäuser Privatbankiers in Hamburg, Schwarz previously worked in Wealth Management at Deutsche Bank.

Brokerage & Research recognized Thomson Extel is one of Europe’s most prestigious ranking agencies in the finance sector. Once a year, the continent’s top performers are recognized in a ceremony in London.

This year Bank Vontobel received awards in five categories, in particular “Switzerland – Leading Brokerage Firm”. More information at: www.vontobel.com.

Berne branch opened On 28 June 2010, the Vontobel Group opened its new branch in Berne, at Spitalgasse 4. Heading the office’s team of five employees are Urs Frutig and Roger Jaeggi, who took up the challenge at the end of 2009.

Vontobel at the World Exhibition in China On 21 August 2010, Bank Vontobel is hosting a VIP event in the Swiss Pavilion at the World Expo in Shanghai. After a guided tour of the pavilion and a presentation on the traditional Swiss banking firm Vontobel, Jing Zhang, Head of Greater China, will host an exclusive dinner.

Photo: Michael Sieber

Basel branch opens Since May 2010, the Zurich-based Bank Vontobel has established a foothold in Basel, the heart of the Three Countries Corner. With this new office, the private bank moves closer to its clientele and increases its presence in the Swiss home market.

On 23 June 2010, the new branch at St. Alban-Anlage 58 in Basel officially opened its doors for business at an exclusive ceremony attended by numerous special guests.

Vontobel is present in four Swiss locations: Zurich, Geneva and Lucerne, and now Basel. Since May, the Director of the new office, Beat Brügger, and his team have been looking after Basel-based clients and assisting them with investment issues. The ten-member team has extensive knowhow in wealth management as well as an excellent regional network.

Among the hosts of the opening ceremony was Chairman Emeritus of the Vontobel Group, 93-year-old Dr. Hans Vontobel. In his remarks, he stressed the importance of the Swiss home market for the Zurich-based private bank.

At the same time, he pointedly stated that the key success factor for the future was not growth per se but rather a return to tried and tested virtues such as reliability, soliditiy and stability. “Compared to the others, our aim is not to be bigger at any cost – but better,” he said, summarizing his comments.

Vanessa Henökl, Peter Beyeler; from left, rear: Roger Aeschbach, Patrizia Lio, Simona Brunelli, Beat Brügger, Florian Hoek

Energy Weeks at Vontobel The Vontobel Group is co-founder of the Climate Foun­ dation Switzerland, which is committed to making Switzerland a future-oriented business location. Under the slogan “Power Your Life”, we launched an extensive inhouse campaign. During two so-called “Energy Weeks”, we put energy efficiency in the spotlight and, on the basis of various activities, were able to identify where optimization and potential for savings can be found. For example, reducing the number of trips made by the office lifts resulted in a savings of 404 kg of CO2. And a switch to more climate-friendly meals in the “Uto” staff restaurant saved an addition­ al 9900 kg of CO2. It would take 937 fir trees to absorb the 10,300 kg of carbon dioxide we saved during the exercise – or, put another way, thanks to our efforts during “Energy Weeks”, the Vontobel Group “planted” the equivalent of a forest of almost 1000 trees!

Vontobel became the main sponsor of the GC Since the beginning of July 2010, Bank Vontobel has become a main sponsor of the Grasshopper Club Zurich. For a period of two years (with an option to renew), Vontobel will therefore be supporting the most important sporting institution in Switzerland. With its 4500 members, GC is the most successful multi-sport Swiss club and has earned a high degree of recognition. Closely associated with Zurich, the club has an illustrious 124-year history. In addition, GC is exemplary in the way it promotes sport for youth, for example training over 500 active “juniors” on its campus in Niederhasli (Switzerland). It’s a great fit: The club’s excellent performance record, as well as its admirable values, are completely in line with the culture at Vontobel.

Photo: Grasshopper Club Zürich

Beat Brügger (back row, right) with his team From left, front: Markus T. Senn, Hugo Leuenberger, Melanie Jappert,

Care & Share

Text: Renata Fäh

blue 24/25

Care & Share: Prospects for Brazilian street children

In each issue of “blue”, we present a relief project.

The “Fundação Crescer Criança” (FCC) is a foundation which devotes half-days to children from poor Brazilian families, familiarizing them with the rights and responsibilities of being a citizen. Complementing the public half-day school, FCC’s programme not only looks after the children from an educational point of view, but also promotes their personal, cultural and physical well-being.

Mrs. Nüssli, you emigrated to Brazil 27 years ago, aiming to get more involved on behalf of children from poor families. What do you see that has changed thanks to your commitment in Boituva?

Previously, people didn’t engage themselves to social projects in Boituva as much as they did, for example, in Switzerland. Nevertheless, we were able to win over quite a few local volunteers for our project, who are now enthusiastic participants. The street scene has also changed: I’m pleased to see how our children behave today. They are clean and well brought up, they do their homework on our premises, and they truly beam with that happiness that is so unique to children.

Photo: Sandro Diener

Giving something back

Swiss Laurette Nüssli Álvares is the daughter of Hüttwil-based entrepreneur Heini Nüssli.

Trained as an economist, she chairs the Board of Trustees of the FCC and is responsible for the project on site.

In order for the FCC to remain independent, you finance 50 percent of the foundation’s budget through private donations. How do you arrange this?

We do receive support from local, state and federal authorities, although we would like to stand on our own two feet as much as possible and finance our activities through private channels. Brazilians often make donations to us in kind, such as gifts of furniture, food or toys. But most of the donations come from Switzerland: it’s these monetary resources that made our great infrastructure for the children possible in the first place.

In your day-to-day work with the children, you involve their parents as well. What are you aiming to achieve by doing this?

A child can’t be cared for by cutting him off from his social network. That is why we offer courses for adults, too. In addition, our psychologist and social worker are available for the children’s parents to come see; questions about child-raising, hygiene or sexuality are subjects where there is often a need for dialogue. And thanks to this approach, in five years we have had only one adolescent pregnancy.

What drives you personally?

On the whole, my family and I have always had it pretty good. I simply wanted to give something of this back.

Thanks to our private tutorial sessions, our FCC kids are the model students within the state-run schools. On top of that, 95 percent of our 16-year-olds land a job. Twelve have even made it to university! I’m so proud and happy to be part of this.

Teachers ensure that in the FCC, the kids read, do their homework, and participate in group discussions. Those who have finished their mandatory activities are allowed to spend their free time playing football, or trying their hand at crafts, theater or dance.

Dr. phil. Manuel Bachmann is a Lecturer and the Head of Studies of the Executive Master’s Programme “Philosophy and Management” at the University of Lucerne, as well as an Instructor at the

Fundação Crescer Criança FCC In 1994, the FCC set itself the task of raising and educat­ ing Brazilian street children aged six to 16 years, complementing their half-day public schooling. Today about 70 volunteers and 18 employees are looking after over 350 children and adolescents. Depending on personal prefer­ ence, the kids choose from more than 40 activities on offer.

On the one hand, the foundation’s programmes foster the children’s social competence, by inculcating such values as dependability, dignity and respect. On the other, private tutorials, practical courses, computer training or environmental projects all increase the chances of these youngsters to enter the labour market. Since 2002, the FCC has been a project of the “Iris Foundation for Street Children”, which is based in Zurich. Dr. Laurent Giacometti, the head of the foundation, supports and coordinates fundraising for the FCC in Switzerland, together with his wife Madeleine.

Contact: giacometti@chemolio.ch or fcc@crescercrianca.org.br www.crescercrianca.org.br, www.iris-strassenkinder.ch The FCC would be happy to receive you at Travessa Nüssli 150, Boituva 18550-000, São Paulo.

University of St. Gall. He pub­ lishes a monthly e-magazine for decision-makers called “absolutum”.

Column: Dr. phil. Manuel Bachmann

We want to be gods Our life is imbued with coincidences. Everything could be totally different. Nothing is certain.

For the ancient Greeks, the uncertainty of life was man’s fate. Only the gods had precise knowledge of the course of events. People were victims of fate, caught in the moment amidst practical necessities and illusions. It was nevertheless possible to free oneself from these constraints, but this was not the norm. This is why people who deliberately took their destiny into their own hands became heroes. It was in this sense that the ancient Greeks also said that we all want to be gods. Like the gods, none of us want to be simply left to our fates.

What we do want, though, is not yet something we’re able to muster. Everything remains an uncertainty.

But there is one thing we can do for sure. Plato, the most famous of the ancient Greeks, describes it this way: We can turn our gaze inward, away from the externalities that befall us. We look inside ourselves for assurance; to find something that is not just incidental.

This gaze leads us to the only place where it is possible to attain certainty in an uncertain world. It gives us a vision – a vision of what we are and what we want to be.

Such a vision must not remain a mere intuition. It must be grasped, explained and critically examined with a clear head. And it must stand up to reality. In a word: It must become strategic in our life.

Meanwhile, the gaze within is ambiguous, a kaleidoscope. No one among us has no conflicting goals, no doubts, and knows exactly who he is. That means that in this kaleidoscope, we don’t see a single, clear vision.

Even the vision is uncertain. In spite of this, we want to be gods.

www.absolutum.ch

Culture and cuisine blue 26/27

Culture and cuisine: August – October 2010

Inside Zürich Concerts featuring the duo “Hochformat” Venue: Wasserreservoir Lyren, Zurich, Saturday/Sunday, 24/25 September 2010, on the hour from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m., admission free. www.züriröhre.ch / www.hochformat.org “Duo Hochformat” is the name the duo formed by Michael Voss (saxophone, electric wind instrument) and Robert Mark (percussion). The two musicians perform in unusual concert halls with extraordinary acoustics – such as the largest reservoir in Switzerland, under the Uetliberg near Zurich. An extraordinary sound experience.

Summer Workshop Kunsthaus Zurich, 5 June 2010 to 9 October 2010 Reservations requested: tel. +41 (0)44 253 84 84 or at kunstvermittlung@kunsthaus.ch The Summer Workshop is an annual art happening for young and old. Marking the 100th anniversary of the renowned Kunsthaus this year, the 2010 Summer Workshop is putting the museum’s envi­ able collection at the heart of its activities.

With a wide range of tours and interactive studios, it invites children, young people and adults to join the celebration.

The Swiss Makers – The Musical Maag Music Hall, Thursday, 16 September 2010 to Friday, 31 December 2010 Tickets and information at www.dieschweizermacher.ch The celluloid satire “The Swiss Makers” caused quite a stir back in 1978. Thirty years later, Rolf Lyssy’s successful film about what it means to become Swiss, and to be Swiss, has lost none of its relevance – or bite – and now makes its debut as a large-scale musical production.

Restaurant Restaurant Sein Schützengasse 5, 8001 Zurich, tel. +41 (0)44 221 10 65, www.zuerichsein.ch With his 17 points from Gault-Millau, Martin Surbeck has reached the very summit of Swiss gastronomy, spoiling his guests with his creative creations together with partner Patricia Lackner. The wine list at Sein relies on the selection of Philipp Schwander, the only Master of Wine in Switzerland.

Photo: Caroline Minjolle

The art and museum scene

Photo: www.photo-shooting.ch

Concerts, musicals

With the support of the Vontobel Foundation.

Long Night of Zurich’s Museums Saturday, 4 September 2010 beginning at 7 p.m.

Tickets: available from mid-August at the ticket offices of the participating museums and in VBZ Ticketerias. Zurich’s museums’ Long Night has become a permanent high point in the city’s cultural life.

Once a year, 38 different museums and galleries open their doors in the evening, and stay open through the night, with the accompaniment of guided tours, films, music, dance and culinary delights.

Events NZZ Podium Sunday, 5 September 2010, 3.30 p.m.

Eros – Inspiration of the Arts. A Discussion on Aesthetics and Love. With Dr. Peter von Matt, Professor of literature in Zurich.

Thursday 7 October 2010, 6.30 p.m.

Middle East: Powder Keg. In both political and religious terms, the Middle East remains as restless as ever. With Ulrich Tilgner, journalist and foreign correspondent for Swiss television SF1.

More info: www.nzzpodium.ch. Partner: Bank Vontobel

Locations

Masterhead

Bank Vontobel AG Gotthardstrasse 43, CH-8022 Zürich Telefon +41 (0)58 283 71 11, Telefax +41 (0)58 283 76 50

Editor Bank Vontobel AG Gotthardstrasse 43, CH-8022 Zurich Telephone +41 (0)58 283 71 11

Bank Vontobel AG St. Alban-Anlage 58, CH-4052 Basel Telefon +41 (0)58 283 21 11, Telefax +41 (0)58 283 21 12 Bank Vontobel AG Spitalgasse 40, CH-3011 Bern Telefon +41 (0)58 283 22 11, Telefax +41 (0)58 283 22 12

Contact blue@vontobel.com www.vontobel.com/blue

Bank Vontobel AG Schweizerhofquai 3a, Postfach 2265, CH-6002 Luzern Telefon +41 (0)41 249 31 11, Telefax +41 (0)41 249 31 50

Printing Climate-neutral printing by Schellenberg Druck AG. Published four times per year in German and English. Reproduction, in part or in whole, is strictly prohibited without written permission from Bank Vontobel AG.

Banque Vontobel SA Place de l'Université 6, CH-1205 Genève Telefon +41 (0)22 809 90 90, Telefax +41 (0)22 809 90 91

Images and illustration Cover: Sandro Diener; photo page 3: Roth und Schmid, illustration page 25: Jürgen Willbarth

Bank Vontobel Europe AG, Hamburg Sudanhaus, Grosse Bäckerstrasse 13, D-20095 Hamburg Telefon +49 (0)40 638 587 0, Telefax +49 (0)40 638 587 230

English version James Wade, Hurst & Freelancers

Bank Vontobel Europe AG Alter Hof 5, D-80331 München Telefon +49 (0)89 411 890 0, Telefax +49 (0)89 411 890 30 Bank Vontobel Österreich AG Kärntner Strasse 51, A-1010 Wien Telefon +43 (0)1 513 76 40, Telefax +43 (0)1 513 76 402 Bank Vontobel Österreich AG Rathausplatz 4, A-5024 Salzburg Telefon +43 (0)662 8104 0, Telefax +43 (0)662 8104 7 Vontobel Europe SA, Milan Branch Via Galileo Galilei, 5, I-20124 Milano Telefon +39 02 6367 3411, Telefax +39 02 6367 3422

neutral Printed Matter No. 01-10-630228 – www.myclimate.org © myclimate – The Climate Protection Partnership

Bank Vontobel (Liechtenstein) AG Pflugstrasse 20, FL-9490 Vaduz Telefon +423 236 41 11, Telefax +423 236 41 12 Vontobel Asia Pacific Ltd. 2004-2006 Jardine House, 1 Connaught Place, Central Hongkong Telefon +852 3655 3990, Telefax +852 3655 3970

printed by Schellenberg Druck AG

Disclaimer This brochure is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer of any kind. The services described in this brochure are supplied under the agreement signed with the service recipient. The nature, scope and prices of services and products may vary from one country to another and are subject to change without notice. Certain services and products are not available worldwide or from all companies of the Vontobel Group. In addition, they may be subject to legal restrictions in certain countries.

Bank Vontobel AG Gotthardstrasse 43 CH-8022 Zurich

www.vontobel.com

Telephone +41 (0)58 283 71 11