Murray patterson

Ecological Economics Dimension of Manaaki Taha Moana

Presentation by:

Matariki Ahunganui Symposium Tauranga 4 July 2014

Professor Murray Patterson School of People, Environment and Planning Massey University

Outline of Presentation Ø What is Ecological Economics? Ø Progress so Far (Please stop me talking here) Ø Future work Planned

What is Ecological Economics?

Neoclassical Economists

Ecological Economist

Circular Flow Model of the Economy: Neoclassical Economics $ Purchases

Goods and Services

Labour

$ wages and salaries

Circular Flow Model of the Economy: Neoclassical Economics

$ Purchases

Goods and Services

Labour

$ wages and salaries

Ecological Economics Model of the Economy $ Purchases

Goods and Services

Labour Pollutants CO2, Wastewater, Solid Wastes etc.

$ wages and salaries

Resources Water, Energy, Minerals, Biomass etc.

Pollutants CO2, Wastewater, Contaminants, Solid Wastes etc.

Ecological Economics Model of the Economy #2

Biosphere

Resources

Socio-Economic System

Ecosystem Services

Pollutants

Ecological Economics

Neoclassical Economics •

Supply and Demand Analysis – aimed at defining the equilibrium price

•

Not one over-arching theory – draws on a variety of biophysical and social theories

•

Strong Belief in Market solutions to societal problems

•

Cautious about market solution, stronger belief in participatory democracy

•

Methodological Monism

•

Methodological Pluralism Integrative

Ecological Economics

Neoclassical Economics •

Supply and Demand Analysis – aimed at defining the equilibrium price

•

Not one over-arching theory – draws on a variety of biophysical and social theories

•

Strong Belief in Market solutions to societal problems

•

Cautious about market solution, stronger belief in participatory democracy

•

Methodological Monism

•

Methodological Pluralism Integrative

•

Policy Goal = Maximise Economic Efficiency

•

Policy Goals= Sustainability, Economic Efficiency and Social Equity

•

Technologically optimistic

•

More cautious about the role of Technology

•

Trade-offs

•

Limits (Ecological such as carrying capacity)

PROGRESS SO FAR - Mediated Modelling of the Economy - Detailed Analysis of Tauranga Economy - Tentative Work on Value of Ecosystem Services

Mediated Modelling Using Stella

Overview of Mediated Model External Factors

External Factors

Eco Sy stem Serv ices Natural Capital

Eco System Services Natural Capital

Fresh Water…nt to Harbour

Fresh Water from Catchment to Harbour

Population

Population Actions

Economic Prof ile of Tauranga

Actions Economic Profile ofTauranga

Stella Population Module Population

Maximum urban area in ha Urban density

Population in Tauranga +

~

History population

Population change Population increase Population Growth Rate due to attractiveness

Population Pressure tourist year equivalents

~

Migration due to value of ES

~

Migration due to GDP Ecosystem value of Tauranga harb our catchment

GDP Tauranga & Western Bay of Plenty

GDP per capita

somewhat matches the landuse categories identified by stakeholders, but not conclusive.

Sea Grass in ha ~

Other natural capital Forest restoration rate

Stella Land-use Module

Seagrass death rate Indigenous Forest on steep slopes in ha

Conversion seagrass to harbour Mangroves in ha Conversion Pasture to Indigenous Forest

Conversion Indigenous Forest to Introduced Forest Introduced Forest in ha

Conversion harbor to mangrove Rest of Tauranga Harbour area in Ha Margrove growth rate 2

Noname 2 Conversion Introduced Conversion from Pasture Forest to Bare Earth to Introduced Forest

Conv Scrub ton intro forest Scrubs

Wetlands Palustrine and riparian in ha

Pasture in ha

Bare Earth in ha

Conv scrubs to pasture

Conv Wetland to Pasture

Grassland Change in Wetlands and Saltmarshes Conv grass to pasture ~

Wetland restoration rate bare earth growth Conv Pasture to Cropping

Urban and Infrastructure in ha Wetlands Estuarine and Saltmarshes in ha Conv horti to Esturine wetlands Horticulture and Cropping in ha

urban growth

Conv horti to

Mediated Modelling (Stella) Advantages • Developed through Stakeholder Participation (often the process more important than the end-product) • Reasonably Transparent, and Good Stakeholder Buy-in • Good at modelling broad relationships and how they change over time (10-20 year time frame). Good for scoping purposes.

Mediated Modelling (Stella) Advantages • Developed through Stakeholder Participation (often the process more important than the end-product) • Reasonably Transparent, and Good Stakeholder Buy-in • Good at modelling broad relationships and how they change over time (10-20 year time frame). Good for scoping purposes.

Dis-Advantages • No spatial detail (most of the issues we are dealing with have a strong spatial component) • Many of the variables in the Tauranga model are ‘soft’ and not scientifically rigorous –eg, indexes are often • Much of the data is broad-brush –eg, 3-4 land-use-classes (42 land-usesclasses in V2)

Economic Analysis of the Tauranga Economy

Structure and Dynamics of the Tauranga Economy Manaaki Taha Moana Research Monograph # 14 § Detailed Analysis of 48 Sectors § 2001-2012 time - series § Strong emphasis on Input-output analysis (Inter-relationships between sectors in the economy) § Each sector characterised in terms § Employment § GDP contribution, growth rate over last decade, § exports (internationally, inter-regionally), § labour productivity, § location quotient (degree of regional specialisation) § Labour market, Housing Market, Population Analysis.

3.45 Education Description ANZSIC Codes covered:

• P8410 – Preschool Education • P8421 – Primary Education • P8422 – Secondary Education • P8423 – Combined Primary and Secondary Education • P8424 – Special School Education • P8431 – Higher Education (e.g. University) • P8432 – Technical and Further Education • P8440 -­‐ Other Education (e.g. Ballet School, Drama

Main commodity supplied in TCE:

• Education

2010 Figures: Employment = 4,307 Rank = 5th Average Employment Growth Rate = 4.3% p.a

GDP = $244 million Rank = 12th Interregional Exports = $0 International Exports= $17m

Location Quotient = 0.91 Labour Productivity= 42.72 Value-­‐Added Multiplier = 1.93

School, Music Teaching).

Economic Overview

Education employed approximately 6.6% of total employment in the Western Bay of Plenty sub-­‐region. Education is not a strong point of the region, perhaps because it does not have its own university, and therefore employs a smaller percentage than the New Zealand average of 8.0%.

The largest education provider in the TCE is Bay of Plenty Polytechnic with 6,702 students enrolled. Other education providers are Te Wangana o Aotearoa, Bethlehem tertiary institute, The University of Waikato campus in Tauranga, and a number of high schools, Intermediates, Primary and early childhood centres.

External Factors

External Factors

Eco Sy stem Serv ices Natural Capital

Eco System Services Natural Capital

Fresh Water…nt to Harbour

Fresh Water from Catchment to Harbour

Population

Population Actions

Economic Prof ile of Tauranga

Actions Economic Profile ofTauranga

R a n (2010)

k

Highest Employing Sectors

Rank (2010)

Highest Contribution to GDP

Rank (2010)

Top Exporting Sectors

Rank (2010)

Highest Location Quotient

1

Retail Trade

1

Construction

1

Other Food Manufacturing

1

Services to Agriculture, Hunting and Trapping

2

Health and Community Services

2

Wholesale Trade

2

Wholesale Trade

2

Petroleum and Industrial Chemical Manufacturing

3

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

3

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

3

Air Transport, Services to Transport and Storage

3

Water and Rail Transport

4

Construction

4

Health and 4 Community Services

Dairy Product Manufacturing

4

Horticulture and Fruit Growing

5

Education

5

Retail Trade

5

Horticulture and Fruit Growing

5

Electricity Generation and Supply

6

Accommodation, Restaurants and Bars

6

Electricity Generation and Supply

6

Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing

6

Other Food Manufacturing

7

Wholesale Trade

7

Ownership of Owner-Occupied Dwellings

7

Retail Trade (?)

7

Road Transport

8

Services to Agriculture, Hunting and Trapping

8

Real Estate

8

Accommodation, Restaurants and Bars

8

Fishing

9

Road Transport

9

Other Food Manufacturing

9

Water and Rail Transport

9

Health and Community Services

10

Horticulture and Fruit Growing

10

Finance

10

Wood Product Manufacturing

10

Real Estate

Higher concentration the national average Services to agriculture, hunting and trapping Petroleum and industrial chemical manufacturing Water and rail transport Horticulture and fruit growing Electricity generation and supply Other food manufacturing Road transport Fishing Health and community services Real estate Wood product manufacturing Local government administration services and civil defence Retail trade Construction Non-metallic mineral product manufacturing Machinery and equipment manufacturing Structural, sheet, and fabricated metal product manufacturing Air transport, services to transport and storage Transport equipment manufacturing Furniture and other manufacturing

2.72 2.66 2.07 1.82 1.80 1.76 1.46 1.33 1.31 1.24 1.23 1.21 1.20 1.19 1.14 1.06 1.05 1.02 1.02 1.01

Lower concentration the national average Personal and other community services Accommodation, restaurants and bars Wholesale trade Education Other farming Business services Services to finance and investment Beverage, malt and tobacco manufacturing Rubber, plastic and other chemical product manufacturing Cultural and recreational services Finance Textile and apparel manufacturing Forestry and logging Communication services Mining and quarrying Printing , publishing and recorded media Central government administration, defence, public order and safety services Insurance Gas supply Livestock and cropping farming Basic metal manufacturing Dairy cattle farming Meat and meat product manufacturing Dairy product manufacturing

0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.88 0.84 0.80 0.73 0.73 0.71 0.69 0.62 0.55 0.52 0.52 0.51 0.51 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.20 0.20 0.06 0.06

Ecosystem Services in Tauranga Harbour Very Tentative Valuation And what could be done, based on our Nelson Work (2015)

Table 1 Estimate of the Value ($) Ecosystem Services Derived from the Tauranga Harbour _________________________________________________________ Total Value of Area Ecosystem Services Ecosystem Type (hectares) $/ha/yr ($ million/year ) _____________ __________ __________ ___________________ Mangroves 92 23,893 2 Seagrass 4,440 45,451 202 Other 15,468 16,792 260 Total 20,000 23,187 464 _________________________________________________________

Economic Value – Profit of the Port of Tauranga = $45 million/year – Knock on Effects in the local Economy = about $90million/year – Total Economic Impact of the Port = $135 million/year Value of Harbour Ecological Services (initial estimate) – $464 million/year

• Ecological Services of Seagrass = – trapping and stabilizing sediments – nutrient recycling – creation of high primary productivity – provision of habitat for animal and plant species.

• Loss of Value Seagrass – 44.4 km2 (1959) to 29.3 km2 (1997) – $54 million/year a loss – (Port of Tauranga Profits = $45 million/year)

Rapid Assessment of : Economic Value of Coastal Ecosystem Services: Nelson Bays Reefs & Lagoons ($17 mil/yr)

Intertidal Sand Beaches Salt Marshes & Dunes $90 mil/yr $516 mil/yr Coastal Waters

Intertidal

$1,461 million/yr

$322 mil/yr Seagrass $432 mil/yr Total Value= $3,285 million/yr (significant doublecounting)

Estuaries $445 million/yr

GDP Nelson Economy = about $3,500 million/yr

Example: ‘Detailed Inventory’ Results

200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0

$/ hectare / year (Coastal Ecosystem Services in Golden and Tasman Bays)

Future Work –

Bringing all of the strands together

Spatial Dynamic Model of Tauranga Catchment: ‘From Mountains to Sea’

Catchment Land-Use Model

Tauranga Economy 48 interconnected sectors

50+ land use classes

For each 48 sectors: - Pollutants emitted - Resources uses

10 x 10 metre resolution

Sediments Nitrogen, phosphorus, Heavy metals (?), pesticides (?)

Ecology of the Harbour

Species Response Curves

Cumulative Impacts Model

Spatial Dynamic Model of Tauranga Catchment: ‘From Mountains to Sea’ Resources Tauranga Economy

Catchment Land-Use Model

48 interconnected sectors

50+ land use classes

For each 48 sectors: - Pollutants emitted - Resources uses

10 x 10 metre resolution

Sediments Nitrogen, phosphorus, Heavy metals (?), pesticides (?)

Ecology of the Harbour

Supporting Services

Ø Carbon Cycling Ø Water Cycling Ø Primary Production Ø Refugia/Habitat Ø Nursery Habitat Ø Hydrodynamic

Ø Nutrient Cycling & Storage

Provisioning Services Ø Food Production Ø Beach Provision Ø Raw Materials Ø Recreation Ø Tourism Ø Transport/Port Facilities Ø Genetic Bio-prospecting Ø Clean Water

Regulating Services Ø Atmosphere Regulation Ø Climate Regulation Ø Biological Control Ø Waste/Contaminant Treatment Ø Flood buffering Ø Erosion Buffering

Cultural Services Ø Aesthetic Ø Spiritual

Social Relations Ø Social Cohesion Ø Mutual Respect ØAbility to Help Others

Ø Sediment Cycling

Human Wellbeing

Health Ø Strength Ø Free of Sickness Ø Access to Clean Water & Air Ø Longevity

Security ØPersonal Safety Ø Security from Disasters ØSecure Resource Access

Basics of Life Ø Adequate Livelihood Ø Nutritious Food

Ecosystem Services Framework

Freshwater, Energy Land Energy, Minerals, Land, Biomass

Pollutants Solid Wastes, Water Pollutants, C02, Toxins

Spatial Dynamic Model of Tauranga Catchment: ‘From Mountains to Sea’

Tauranga Economy

Catchment Land-Use Model

48 interconnected sectors

50+ land use classes

For each 48 sectors: - Pollutants emitted - Resources uses

10 x 10 metre resolution

Sediments Nitrogen, phosphorus, Heavy metals (?), pesticides (?)

Ecology of the Harbour

Supporting Services

Ø Carbon Cycling Ø Water Cycling Ø Primary Production Ø Refugia/Habitat Ø Nursery Habitat Ø Hydrodynamic

Ø Nutrient Cycling & Storage

Provisioning Services Ø Food Production Ø Beach Provision Ø Raw Materials Ø Recreation Ø Tourism Ø Transport/Port Facilities Ø Genetic Bio-prospecting Ø Clean Water

Regulating Services Ø Atmosphere Regulation Ø Climate Regulation Ø Biological Control Ø Waste/Contaminant Treatment Ø Flood buffering Ø Erosion Buffering

Cultural Services Ø Aesthetic Ø Spiritual

Social Relations Ø Social Cohesion Ø Mutual Respect ØAbility to Help Others

Ø Sediment Cycling

Human Wellbeing

Health Ø Strength Ø Free of Sickness Ø Access to Clean Water & Air Ø Longevity

Security ØPersonal Safety Ø Security from Disasters ØSecure Resource Access

Basics of Life Ø Adequate Livelihood Ø Nutritious Food

Ecosystem Services Framework

Spatial Dynamic Model of Tauranga Catchment: ‘From Mountains to Sea’ Other Indicators

GDP

Tauranga Economy

Catchment Land-Use Model

48 interconnected sectors

50+ land use classes

For each 48 sectors: - Pollutants emitted - Resources uses

10 x 10 metre resolution

Sediments Nitrogen, phosphorus, Heavy metals (?), pesticides (?)

Cultural Health Index

Ecology of the Harbour

Ø Sediment Cycling Ø Carbon Cycling Ø Water Cycling Ø Primary Production Ø Refugia/Habitat Ø Nursery Habitat Ø Hydrodynamic Supporting Services

Ø Nutrient Cycling & Storage

Provisioning Services Ø Food Production Ø Beach Provision Ø Raw Materials Ø Recreation Ø Tourism Ø Transport/Port Facilities Ø Genetic Bio-prospecting Ø Clean Water

Cultural Services

Social Relations Ø Social Cohesion Ø Mutual Respect ØAbility to Help Others

Regulating Services Ø Atmosphere Regulation Ø Climate Regulation Ø Biological Control Ø Waste/Contaminant Treatment Ø Flood buffering Ø Erosion Buffering

Human Wellbeing

Health Ø Strength Ø Free of Sickness Ø Access to Clean Water & Air Ø Longevity

Security ØPersonal Safety Ø Security from Disasters ØSecure Resource Access

Ecosystem Services Framework

Resources Freshwater, Energy Land Energy, Minerals, Land, Biomass

Pollutants Solid Wastes, Water Pollutants, C02, Toxins

Spatial Dynamic Model of Tauranga Catchment: ‘From Mountains to Sea’ Other Indicators

GDP

Tauranga Economy

Catchment Land-Use Model

48 interconnected sectors

50+ land use classes

For each 48 sectors: - Pollutants emitted - Resources uses

10 x 10 metre resolution

Resources Freshwater, Energy Land Energy, Minerals, Land, Biomass

Pollutants Solid Wastes, Water Pollutants, C02, Toxins

Sediments Nitrogen, phosphorus, Heavy metals (?), pesticides (?)

Cultural Health Index

Ecology of the Harbour

Ø Sediment Cycling Ø Carbon Cycling Ø Water Cycling Ø Primary Production Ø Refugia/Habitat Ø Nursery Habitat Ø Hydrodynamic Supporting Services

Ø Nutrient Cycling & Storage

Provisioning Services Ø Food Production Ø Beach Provision Ø Raw Materials Ø Recreation Ø Tourism Ø Transport/Port Facilities Ø Genetic Bio-prospecting Ø Clean Water

Cultural Services

Social Relations Ø Social Cohesion Ø Mutual Respect ØAbility to Help Others

Regulating Services Ø Atmosphere Regulation Ø Climate Regulation Ø Biological Control Ø Waste/Contaminant Treatment Ø Flood buffering Ø Erosion Buffering

Human Wellbeing

Health Ø Strength Ø Free of Sickness Ø Access to Clean Water & Air Ø Longevity

Security ØPersonal Safety Ø Security from Disasters ØSecure Resource Access

Ecosystem Services Framework

Actions

Drivers

Thank you

Ecological Economics Model #3

Neoclassical Economics

Environmental Economics

Ecology Resource Economics

Example: ‘Detailed Inventory’ Results

200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0

$/ hectare / year (Coastal Ecosystem Services in Golden and Tasman Bays)

Salt Marshes, Economic Value of Ecosystem Services, Nelson Bays

Net Primary Production Water Regulation Waste Treatment

Food Production Aesthetic & Recreational Climate Regualtion Disturbance Regulation Raw Materials Water Supply

Gas r egulation

Total = $115 mil/year

Base land use maps • Developed methodology • Compiled test datasets • Programmed statistical analysis • Rural – Agribase, LCDB, business frame • Urban – statistical approach based on clusters analysis and logistic regression • Convert from vector to raster • Validate with Manaaki Te Awanui

Land use Land use & interaction at time T+1 weights

How does it work?

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Suitability The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again.

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& Stochastic perturbation Transition Rule Change cells to the land use for which they have the highest transition potential until regional demands are met

Time Loop

Zoning

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Transition Potentials

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