The Importance of Railways for Safety and Growth of Three Seas Initiative

It has been some thirty years since the fall of the Iron Curtain. The period has shown how much good can be done in Central and Eastern Europe to live, grow, and work in independent states. This time was marked by both rapid economic growth while local nations enjoyed higher standards of living and a lower crime rate compared to other states across the continent. It yet never lasted long in territories between Germany and Russia, a region delineated as bloodlands by American historian Timothy Snyder. Russia first occupied Crimea and then invaded Ukraine, a sign that Moscow never relinquished its imperial ambitions while seeking to brutally seize some countries in the region.

The war in Ukraine is another evidence that countries running along the axis from the Baltic to the Adriatic and Black Seas promote cooperation to safeguard security across the region and not simply for the sake for friendly neighbourly ties. One area of cooperation is that in the field of rail transport that serves a major role for economy and security, which is highly noticeable now, as Ukraine is fighting Russia's invasion. However, so are some shortages in the countries of the Three Seas Initiative, including links along the north-south axis, all of them crucial for regional cohesion.

SOURCE: PREZYDENT.PL

Cooperation in the interwar period

Although Poland, which re-emerged in 1918, faced a host of daunting challenges typical for a newly independent country, its authorities rushed to take action that would produce long-term tangible effects. The struggle was to reintegrate the three zones that had been forcibly kept apart during the 123-year era of partition and provide optimal transport links between them. The Polish Army Command believed routes through Yugoslavia and Romania––the latter with its Danube and Black Sea ports––were crucial to supply weapons and other commodities in case of armed conflict with the Soviet Union and Germany, Poland's arch enemies at that time. Consequently, in November 1919 Poland and Romania signed their first ever railway agreement while other documents followed, con-

taining details of that cooperation. In the years that followed, efforts were made to repair railway infrastructure and facilities that had suffered major damage during World War I. New railway links were constructed to allow fast and efficient journey from Gdańsk via Warsaw, Katowice, Cracow, and Lviv to Bucharest and further, to Sofia, Varna, and Athens. Poland's merchant fleet, notably the country's seaport in Gdynia, developed ties with other Three Seas nations. The state's authorities and military officials firmly believed Black Sea ports and routes running from Poland to the Middle East via Turkey were key to allow Polish trade and economy flourish. Poland's railways and ports had their offices in Bucharest, Prague, Budapest, Vienna, and Belgrade. In addition, the country's then airline

SOURCE: POLONIKA.PL

OPENING OF THE ROAD-RAIL BRIDGE IN KUTY ON THE CHEREMOSH RIVER, 1930.

services now seem interesting in light of ongoing efforts to construct the Solidarity Transport Hub (Centralny Port Komunikacyjny, CPK). Poland was at the crossing of airline routes running from southern Europe to Scandinavia, England to India, or the Soviet Union with mainland Europe. Before World War II LOT Polish Airlines, Poland's flag carrier, opened services to Romania, Bulgaria Yugoslavia, Greece, Latvia, and Estonia as well as Italy, Germany and even Palestine and Syria. Warsaw was even home to the Baltic-Balkan Aviation Conference, an aviation association

that brought together Latvia, Estonia, Romania, Bulgaria, and Greece. Regrettably, Poland's endeavors to draw better connections along the north-south axis failed to avert the dreadful disaster of 1939. The state nonetheless never gave in the dream to create a set of links to boost military security and foster dynamic economic growth. For the purpose of this paper, the need to create robust transportation links stemmed from efforts to develop transportation independence of the post-partition and post-Soviet networks.

Dependent development

Unlike in the interwar period, both before World War I and just after World War II, infrastructure facilities throughout the Three Seas region served primarily the powers that had controlled the area. Those that prevailed were links between regions and metropolitan areas as well as between metropolises themselves. The region's transportation landscape changed slightly in the Cold War era to ensure links between Moscow and so-called people's democracies and allow better operational capability of Warsaw Pact troops to move them faster in case of armed conflict with any Western European state. Consequently, a set of links running along the east-west axis emerged. This tendency did not reverse even after the fall of the Iron Curtain as Europe's priority was to build links with Russia and countries of "new" Europe while infrastructure in the Three Seas

region was still a long way off. Those issues were not a priority for the countries of Central and Eastern Europe whose authorities focused on other challenges that grappled post-socialist societies in the early days of democratic transition. Consequently, the region has no adequate road and rail links between its countries. An infrastructure gap is noticeable between Europe's east and west, where transportation time between its countries is shorter than in the Three Seas region. As a result, it has modest trade and mobility rate, which hampers efforts to create a sense of community between states and their societies. Little––or nothing––was said about military mobility. The region's transportation network exerts a direct impact on defense capabilities along NATO's eastern flank, both for moving troops and military hardware.

Voice of the Three Seas Countries

Despite some earlier efforts, a turning point was the Russian invasion of Ukraine. For the sake of clarity, it began as soon as in 2014, and not when a full-scale war broke out on February 24, 2022. Moscow's illegal annexation of Crimea and seizure of part of Ukraine's eastern province of Donbas shattered all illusions about possible cooperation with Russia or resetting ties between Moscow and the West, an idea widely ushered by then U.S. President Barack Obama. Russia's

imperialist pursuits undermine the rules of the civilized world, which was a great cause for concern for the nations of Central and Eastern Europe, all having a vivid and painful recollection of Russian or Soviet domination. What followed was greater involvement of the United States across the region, which added up to two new platforms being created––the Bucharest Nine (B9), founded in July 2014 in Warsaw, and the Three Seas Initiative, a forum

SOURCE: ADOBESTOCK

launched jointly by Poland and Croatia in September 2015 at a New York summit. The Bucharest Nine is a forum of countries along NATO's eastern flank to make joint security to ensure safety across the region. The Three Seas Initiative was, however, designed to promote cooperation between its members and their partners in energy, transport, and digital sectors. Security issues do not lie at the heart of the Three Seas Initiative but as Europe is watching the Russian invasion of Ukraine, new infrastructure is critical to both economy and––most notably––security. Amid Germany's plans to make Europe reliant on Russian energy supplies, one could not overestimate the importance of energy facilities responsible for both collecting and transporting gas and oil for Three Seas states and its neighbors. Poland

remained actively engaged in the region through its infrastructure projects that included the Baltic Pipe and Świnoujście liquefied natural gas terminal. As society and economy depend much on cutting-edge technologies, so does digital infrastructure. The war of Ukraine has shown that the technologies people use every day could be fit for military purposes. Central and Eastern European nations have all become aware of cyber threats after Russian hackers unleashed a wave of cyber attacks that crippled Estonia back in 2007. Transportation infrastructure is crucial for the eastern flank of the North Atlantic Alliance as it provides for the ability to move swiftly troops, materiel, supplies, and other commodities for both the military and civilians.

SOURCE: KRZYSZTOF SITKOWSKI, KPRP

The economic miracle of Central Europe

Special attention should be paid to the background of collaboration between countries. They all suffered from a poor economic situation and lacked technologies while their societies had yet to learn to live under a new economy. Decades of hard of work of Three Seas nations led to spectacular success that could be in the same class as economic growth in post-war Germany or the Four Asian Tigers. In 2004–2019 Poland was the fastest-growing economy in the Three Seas region and its growth rate was 5.3 percent. The four countries of the Visegrad Group––Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary––achieved spectacular economic growth. According to the report Grupa Wyszeh-

radzka – 30 lat transformacji, integracji i rozwoju [The Visegrad Group – 30 years of transition, integration and development] compiled by the Polish Economic Institute (PIE), in 1991–2019, the Groups' gross domestic product in constant prices rose 155 percent. In 1995–2019 investment in fixed assets in the V4 countries increased more than three times faster than in the EU–15. In 2019, GDP per capita represented nearly 72 percent of the EU–15’s level and 86 percent of some countries in southern Europe. Despite the region's overwhelming accomplishment, a story of its tremendous success in the past few decades failed to go round throughout the region and outside. Such a narrative could help change the

SOURCE: SHUTTERSTOCK, TTSTUDIO

overall perception of the region––as no longer lagging behind the whole world or territories where the biggest mass murder of the twentieth century were committed, but a promising region that develops dynamically. Although much is being said right now about robust ties between Germany, which is the EU's largest economy, and China, three decades after the fall of the Iron Curtain, according to the report, the Visegrad Group is now the largest trade partner of Germany and their trade exchange is one and a half times bigger than that between Germany and China. The region owes its tremen-

dous economic growth after the fall of the Iron Curtain to all Three Seas nations.

At the same time, they got fully involved in EU integration, joined NATO, and thus saw their comeback to Western structures, whose crucial members they continue to be now. In 2022 the Three Seas countries were home to 110 million people, or roughly 25 percent of the population of the European Union (EU). Additionally, the region's demographics does not seem overly optimistic––even amid the ageing population of Western European countries.

The need for better connections

Although trade exchange between Three Seas countries and Western European states is at a relatively good level, that within the region looks rather little optimistic, which stems from a poor transportation network that fails to meet current needs or unlock potential for growth. For that reason, any opportunities for growth that arise from political, social, and economic cooperation have remained untapped. That is also reflected in military mobility, a field that the countries along NATO's eastern flank should not downplay under no circumstances. The situation is beginning to change, however. A top road link is Via Carpathia, a transnational highway connecting Klaipedia, Lithuania, and Thessaloniki, Greece, with off-shoots towards the Black Sea and Western Balkans. Another link is Via Baltica, a complementary project intended to bring together Warsaw and Tallinn.

After Russia unleashed a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, many realized the importance of railways running from north to south in the

Three Seas region and an efficient transportation network to connect its major ports. In peacetime, the railroad network matters for economy and society as it transports passengers and cargo. At the same time, railway infrastructure is a vital link of critical infrastructure, one example of that being the ongoing war in Ukraine. The trains have transported wounded and refugees to safety. Foreign politicians also travel to Kyiv by train as the railway has established itself as the best means of transporting politicians from around the world to the Ukrainian capital. Trains also carry humanitarian aid, fuel, grains, and other food produces. Russia and Ukraine rely heavily on trains to win the war because the railroad also provides a vital lifeline for moving troops, weapons, and military hardware that are ready for combat with their tanks full while not blocking roads. Rail infrastructure is being increasingly targeted. In 2022 Belarusian railway saboteurs helped thwart Russia's assault on Kyiv, wreaking havoc on Russian supply lines. In addition, many Russian trains carrying supplies

THE IMPORTANCE OF RAILWAYS FOR SAFETY AND GROWTH OF THREE SEAS INITIATIVE

derailed while bridges were destroyed at the rear of Russian forces. In one of the most spectacular and symbolic incidents, an explosion caused the partial collapse of a bridge linking the Crimean Peninsula with Russia as the blast ignited a train carrying large fuel tanks on an adjacent bridge.

Rail is critical to mobility and delivering combat supplies to troops throughout the Three Seas region. It is crucial to ensure efficient links between the Baltic Sea, the Black Sea, and the Aegean Sea that now need major and rapid amendments. In 2022 Russia’s invasion of Ukraine made the European Commission rethink its Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) to beef up the bloc's ability to defend itself. The region so far offered corridors between the Baltic states, Warsaw, and Western Europe as well as between the ports on the Baltic and Adriatic Seas. Nonetheless, the European Commission suggested adding a new route between the Baltic, Black, and Aegean Seas to the TEN-T revision proposal in what is a major breakthrough in north-south corridors in the Three Seas region.

The European Commission outlined two routes running through Moldova and Ukraine, a major

milestone for future links across the region. In 2022 the Three Seas Initiative granted Ukraine the special status of a participating partner while the action plan to revise the TEN-T network, which encompasses Ukraine, is a major step towards its total inclusion into the format. The bloc suggested extending corridors to the ports of Odessa and Mariupol, the latter of them being a symbol of Ukrainian tragedy amid the Russian invasion. The Commission proposal suggested changes to adapt the framework to the war by extending corridors into Ukraine and Moldova while also improving links between EU nations. In addition to routes running through the Carpathian Mountains to overlap with Via Carpathia, the EU submitted a plan to build a transport corridor to link Poland and thus the Baltic ports to the Black Sea ports in Romania and Bulgaria before hitting those in Greece. The new route, which crosses Ukraine, would bypass the Carpathian Mountains in the northeast. A standard-gauge railway road from Przemyśl, Poland, to Suceava, Romania, via Lviv, Ukraine, could allow for better energy and time efficiency compared to other routes running through the Carpathian Mountains. This change matters

SOURCE: EUROPEAN COMMISSION

both for security and trade in the region. Despite the ongoing war, Ukraine is planning to lay out a European gauge rails for integration into the European system. The Ukrainian rail network currently uses 1,520 mm broad gauge compared to the European gauge width of 1,435 mm. The implementation fo these projects will exert a positive impact on the transportation network throughout the region. Whether these begin to exist depend on the timing and the outcome of the war.

A developed transportation network, including railways, could reinforce security and trade between the Three Seas countries. That should be considered as the structure of the world's supply chains is changing. The Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine both showed that the globalist approach is illusory. In addition, tensions have run high between China and NATO, notably the United States. Endeavors to build resilience

through refurbished supply chains and moving production to home markets is an unparalleled opportunity that Three Seas countries should grasp. According to A generational shift in sourcing strategy. A global and European deep dive into near-sourcing, nearshoring and reshoring in the post-pandemic world , a report compiled jointly by Reuters and Maersk, Poland ranked fourth among the most attractive sourcing and reshoring locations, only to India, Vietnam, and Germany. European companies are looking within as they seek to rebalance their supply chains. This is part of a drive to reduce risk in supply chains while increasing oversight and improving sustainability. If the Three Seas countries seek to grasp the emerging opportunities, they have no choice but to develop transport infrastructure including new railway lines, intermodal terminals, or sidings so as to respond adequately to the increased demand for transport in the region.

Conclusion

After the Russia invasion of Ukraine many realized a tremendous role railway networks serve in any armed conflict as it shifts troops, military equipment, and supplies for civilians. Decades after the fall of the Iron Curtain brought dynamic growth of the countries between the Baltic, Black, and the Adriatic Seas today known as the Three Seas Initiative. However, the region lacks transportation routes consistent with its needs and potential for growth, which could prompt better trade exchange between Three Seas states and beef

up military mobility across the eastern flank of the North Atlantic Alliance. The war in Ukraine and efforts to bring the war-ravaged country close to the EU made the European Commission rethink its TEN-T network. The Commission proposal suggested building a new corridor to link the Baltic, Black, and the Aegean Seas to boost connectivity along the north-south axis in the Three Seas region. At the top of the EU's agenda was a plan to extend TEN-T corridors into Ukraine and Moldova to bolster transportation

connectivity between the Baltic and Black Sea ports and those on the Aegean Sea and in Turkey in the long term. The development of transportation infrastructure across the Three Seas region could unlock its potential to rebalance supply lines and move manufacturing closer to home. Threats posed by the Russian imperialist policy

make many countries aware that their priority is to expand their railway infrastructure. That is aimed at beefing up the bloc's ability to defend itself along NATO's eastern flank, links to the Baltic states, and between the ports on the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea.

SOURCE: S1.TVP.PL

Works cited:

1. A generational shift in sourcing strategy – A global and European deep dive into near-sourcing, nearshoring and reshoring in the post-pandemic world, A. Hadwick (red.), Reuters Events 2022.

2. Ambroziak Ł., Chojna J., Gniadek J., Juszczak A., Miniszewski M., Strzelecki J., Szpor A., Śliwowski P., Święcicki I., Wąsiński M., Grupa Wyszehradzka – 30 lat transformacji, integracji i rozwoju, Polski Instytut Ekonomiczny, Warszawa 2021.

3. Popławski K., Jakóbowski J., W kierunku budowy bliższych powiązań –Trójmorze jako obszar gospodarczy, Polski Instytut Ekonomiczny, Warszawa 2020.

4. Wasilewski A., Początki polityki Międzymorza. Dyplomacja polska na Bałkanach, Ministerstwo Spraw Zagranicznych, Warszawa 2019.

5. Eurostat.

Autor: Paweł Pawłowski

Graduate of the Faculty of Law and Administration, University of Warsaw and Babson Entrepreneurship Program at Babson College. He was An intern at the Institute of World Politics in Washington, DC. He gained his professional experience in the best banks in Poland. Currently works as a manager in the leading company in the regional transportation sector. He serves Chairman of the Foundation Council at the Warsaw Institute.

Autor: Rafał Zgorzelski

holds a PhD in the field of history and is a graduate of Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń, completed Postgraduate Studies in Management and Postgraduate Studies in Sales Management in Practice at the WSB University in Toruń. He also holds an Executive MBA degree. He has developed his expertise in companies in the logistics, energy, and arms industries. He currently works for one of the leading transport firms in Central and Eastern Europe.

The opinions given and the positions held in materials in the Special Report solely reflect the views of authors.

Warsaw Institute

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