Meloni's Italy presidency at the G7 - a rebirth of Western unity?
SPECIAL REPORT
2024/12/09 KACPER KITA
Italy is the second smallest economy in the G7, only slightly larger than Canada. Despite this, the government in Rome is trying to use the presidency of the Group, which it holds in 2024, to push through its program as a common position of the “collective West”. It is also an opportunity to strengthen the importance of her country and the personal position of Giorgia Meloni. The first two years of the Italian prime minister’s rule were largely devoted to activity in the international arena. Meloni is trying to present herself as a stable, reliable and independent partner to both her own citizens and other governments, ending the era of chaos and frequent collapses of subsequent cabinets.
G7 - from the old Cold War to a new one?
Next year will mark the 50th anniversary of the founding of the Group of Seven. In November 1975, at the initiative of President Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, the leaders of the United States, Japan, Germany, Great Britain, France and Italy met in the Château de Rambouillet near Paris. Two years later, Canada was also invited. The young French president was a staunch supporter of multilateralism and building personal ties between the leaders of the most important powers of the broadly understood Western world. Apart from the creation of the G7, Giscard’s term of office was marked by close cooperation with German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt (both men took over the governments of their countries in the same month, having previously simultaneously served as finance ministers). European integration also proceeded in the same spirit - direct elections to the European Parliament were introduced, as well as the European Monetary System, laying the foundations for the euro currency.
In addition to EU integration and the oil crisis, the obvious context for the creation of the G7 and its first summits was the Cold War. The establishment of the Group was intended to help consolidate the most important allies of the USA to counterbalance the USSR and the Communist bloc. After the fall of the Soviets, the Americans tried to draw the newly established Russian Federation into their orbit, just as they had done after World War II with the defeated Germany, Japan and Italy. During the summit in Denver, organized by President Bill Clinton in 1997, Russia was officially added to the Group. Thus, the G8 was created. This was supposed to symbolize the
economic and political integration of Moscow with the Western world and the hope for its Westernization. A month earlier, during the summit of the North Atlantic Alliance, NATO and Russia signed the Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security. A new era was supposed to begin in relations between the West and Russia. Two years later, in the same spirit, the People’s Republic of China became a member of the World Trade Organization. The direction adopted by the USA at that time definitely suited the Italians, who wanted to maintain good relations with Washington and Moscow at the same time. History, geography and energy were all conducive to this. After World War II, Italy was the country in Western Europe with the strongest Communist Party, whose support sometimes reached almost 30% and which was continuously in close relations with the Kremlin. Maintaining Rome’s pro-Western course and keeping the Communists in opposition, outside the so-called constitutional arc, required intense involvement of the United States between 1947 and 1991. However, the Christian Democratic governments were by no means antagonistic towards the USSR. Suffice it to say that the first contract for the supply of Soviet gas to Italy was signed in 1969, and the USSR became its key energy partner - a role that was later taken over by Russia. Geographical distance has also always favored pragmatic relations between Rome and Moscow. In 2001, as now, Italy took over the presidency of the G8. During the Group’s summit in Genoa, its host, the new Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, met the new President of Russia, Vladimir Putin. The relationship between the
two politicians, continued and developed over the next twenty years, became a symbol of the Kremlin’s growing influence among the elite of Western Europe. The two leaders met as many as 8 times during the first 19 months, and then for a long time usually saw each other at least twice a year. Putin’s teenage daughters often spent their holidays at Berlusconi’s luxurious villa in Sardinia. The politicians went skiing together. Berlusconi came to Russia every year for Putin’s birthday, and his companies did business in Russia. The four-time prime minister of Italy demonstratively visited Crimea together with the Russian leader after its occupation. Until his death in 2023, Berlusconi defended Russia and Putin, even after the full-scale aggression against Ukraine.
It was in Rome in 2002 that the NATO-Russia Council was established. Prime Minister Berlu-
sconi presented himself as the architect of this “historic agreement” and “official end of the Cold War”. He repeatedly used in his propaganda, back then and later, a photo from the picturesque town of Pratica del Mare near Rome, in which Putin and then US President George W. Bush shake hands with the help of Berlusconi, who is joyfully standing between them. Italy was to be a diplomatic intermediary between the two powers and a bridge between the West and the East. Berlusconi, when promoting the idea of partnership between the US, Europe and Russia and when criticizing sanctions on Moscow or its exclusion from the G8, referred to the “spirit of Pratica del Mare” for the rest of his life. He warned against a “new Cold War” and lamented the “lack of leadership in the West”, which allegedly prevents a new agreement with Russia.
A U-turn or continuation in Italy’s Foreign Policy?
In 2024, Italy once again took over the presidency of the same organization (in the meantime it also held the presidency in 2009 and 2017), but the international circumstances today are completely different than they were 23 years ago. While the then-Italian Prime Minister was building his position on reaching an agreement with Russia, today his successor is doing the exact opposite, presenting herself as a supporter of a tough opposition to the Kremlin’s aggressive actions. This shift is taking place even though both then and now Italy is ruled by an alliance of exactly the same parties.
The creator of the center-right coalition and its leader for the next 20 years or so was the aforementioned Silvio Berlusconi. In 1994, the
millionaire founded a new political movement - Forward Italy - and began cooperation with the post-fascist Italian Social Movement (MSI) and the separatist Northern League. At the time, Giorgia Meloni was a 17-year-old activist in the MSI, which soon distanced itself from its fascist heritage and changed its name to the National Alliance (AN). In 2008, Meloni became the Minister for Youth in Berlusconi’s fourth cabinet. In 2012, in agreement with the latter, she established her own party - the Brothers of Italy (FdI), continuing to some extent the tradition of MSI and AN. Over the years, Meloni had by no means opposed Berlusconi’s foreign policy - on the contrary, she had praised it. She also used to advocate for good relations with both Washington and Moscow and criticize Western sanctions on
Russia, although she had never been as involved in defending Putin and relations with Russia as Berlusconi and Matteo Salvini. If anything, she did distinguish herself by her criticism of the People’s Republic of China - already as a young minister and later. For example, FdI would organize meetings with oppositionists from Hong Kong in the Italian parliament.
Russia’s attack on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, led to divisions in the Italian political class. At that time, the technocratic government of Mario Draghi was in power, combining the parties of the center, the left, Berlusconi and Salvini. The
FdI was the only significant parliamentary force in opposition at the time. However, it was Meloni who supported Prime Minister Draghi on the arms shipment to Ukraine, which Salvini and Berlusconi opposed. The Five Star Movement (M5S), which was the main force in the government, also split, with former Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte being against the shipment and then-Foreign Minister Luigi di Maio in favor. The split in M5S led to the fall of Draghi’s government and snap parliamentary elections. They were held in September of the same year, and the FdI won.
Consistent support for Ukraine
Meloni’s anti-Russian turn was a repeat of the MSI’s maneuver of 1952. Initially, the post-fascist party was won by its antipathy to the US, which had led to the fall of Mussolini. Ultimately, the MSI leadership decided to support Italy’s membership in NATO in the name of fighting the USSR and Communism. This was to legitimize the group as an anti-Communist right-wing party entitled to participate in public life. Meloni also sensed the Zeitgeist when she decided to support and then continue Draghi’s policies. Thanks to this, she legitimized herself among international partners, shedding the stigma of the “far right” and distant fascist roots. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Antonio Tajani, appointed to this position by Berlusconi, also went in this direction. Tajani distanced himself from the pro-Russian statements of his long-time patron. Berlusconi’s death in June 2023 and Tajani’s official takeover of Forward Italy completed the correction. Simultaneously, Meloni withdrew Italy from China’s Belt and Road Initiative, where it had been introduced by Conte. This was another clear signal to the Americans. The new prime minister also quickly worked out
a modus vivendi with the European Commission and Ursula von der Leyen. She rapidly established good relations with US allies such as the Group’s Great Britain and Japan, but also India and the United Arab Emirates, whose leaders also appeared at Meloni’s invitation at the G7 summit in Puglia, which took place on 13-15 June.
The Italian presidency of the G7 comes at a good time for the prime minister. It is already clear that her government is not an ephemeral experiment. Meloni’s cabinet has been in office longer than the four previous ones, and there is no serious crisis on the horizon that could prevent its viability. Since 1945, only two Italian prime ministers have survived a full term in office - the first post-war leader Alcide de Gasperi and the aforementioned Berlusconi. Meloni has a real chance to repeat this success. This works both ways. Internal stability builds international standing, while appearing in the company of the most important Western leaders and hosting them in Italy has a positive impact on the perception of one’s own citizens. The European Parliament elections in June 2024 confirmed the maintenance and even
a slight increase in the popularity of the Prime Minister. The Brothers of Italy obtained 28.8% of the votes (26% for the Chamber of Deputies in 2022), thanks to which they quadrupled the number of MEPs compared to 2019. The entire center-right coalition obtained 47.3% compared to 43.8% in 2022.
In these circumstances, it is not surprising that the G7, led by Italy, has consistently declared support for the “territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence” of Ukraine “for as long as necessary.” At the June summit in Puglia, in the presence of President Volodymyr Zelensky, the leaders of the most important Western countries announced an additional $50 billion for Kiev,
to be used for military, budgetary and post-war reconstruction needs. The terms of this tranche of support were then agreed in October during a meeting of the G7 defense ministers. The loan will be repaid using profits from Russian assets frozen in the West. This is in itself another act of distancing from Russia by the entire G7 and Italy, which until recently wanted to be a bridge between Moscow and the West. $20 billion of the loan will be provided by the US, $20 billion by EU members Germany, France and Italy, and the remaining $10 billion by Great Britain, Canada and Japan. The money will be transferred using instruments of the European Union, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
Opening up to Africa
In keeping with the tradition of Italian diplomacy, Meloni has indicated relations between Europe and Africa as her priority since the beginning of her term. The G7 presidency creates an additional opportunity for this. For years, Meloni has tried to present herself as a politician who simultaneously defends her own national interests and opposes the mass influx of immigrants across the Mediterranean, as well as one who cuts herself off from the colonial legacy, wanting to build partnership relations with Africans. She has repeatedly spoken of the “right not to emigrate” and building a good, rooted life in one’s own countries, among loved ones and in one’s own culture, citing the teachings of John Paul II and Benedict XVI.
All of these goals are to be implemented by the Mattei plan adopted by the Italian parliament in January 2024 - at the beginning of the year of the G7 presidency. Its patron is Enrico Mattei, the founder and first president of ENI, an Italian energy company that built relations between Italy
and North African countries after World War II until his mysterious death in 1962. Mattei tried to conclude partnership agreements that were also beneficial to the other side - countries such as Algeria and Tunisia - and to distinguish Italy in a positive light compared to other Western colonial powers.
Prime Minister Meloni declares that “Italy is like a bridge between Africa and North-Central-Eastern Europe”. She also argues that her plan will be mutually beneficial. “When you run out of water, there are those who bring you bottles and those who bring you a seawater desalination plant. There are those who make you dependent through cooperation and those who make you independent through development”. Of course, she sees her proposal as an example of the latter approach. The Mattei plan currently covers Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria, Kenya, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Ivory Coast, and Congo. On the occasion of its announcement in Rome in January, an Italy-Africa summit was held with the participation
of Prime Minister Meloni, representatives of 45 African countries, including 14 presidents and 7 prime ministers, as well as the highest representatives of the EU - President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Council Charles Michel and President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsuola. This was a strong start to the beginning of the year of Italy’s presidency of the G7 and it showed a real interest of African governments in Meloni’s initiative.
The aim of the Mattei plan is to support the development of Africa through interventions in key sectors such as energy, education, health, agriculture, water management. This is to lead to a political and material stabilization of Africa, which would be a value in itself, creating a safer neighborhood for Europe and limiting the influx of immigrants across the Mediterranean. Investments would allow for the development of the gas, oil and renewable energy sectors, which would then also benefit Rome. Thanks to this, Italy would become an energy hub for Europe, through which other countries of the Old Continent could also meet their demand. This is also supposed to help Europeans permanently move away from energy dependence on Moscow. In 2022, Algeria became the main supplier of energy to Italy, surpassing Russia. In May 2024 Germany, Austria and Italy signed an agreement to build a hydrogen pipeline from Tunisia to Bavaria, which would benefit these three European countries.
Then in June, the main G7 summit was also attended by the leaders of six African countries - Congo, Ivory Coast, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique and Nigeria. Together with the leaders of the G7 countries and representatives of the EU, they signed a communiqué entitled “Energy for Growth in Africa”, which included a declaration
of the need for “massive investment” in energy infrastructure in Africa. The joint commitment of governments, the private sector and financial institutions is to help provide Africans with stable access to electricity, while also helping to limit climate change and build a stable neighborhood for Southern Europe.
The G7 leaders supported the Mattei plan in the final declaration of the summit. However, many critics have expressed doubts as to whether the funds committed are sufficient. So far, the Italian government has declared that it will allocate €5.5 billion for this purpose, reallocated from other funds. Other countries, however, do not want to contribute financially to the Mattei plan for now. It is also questionable whether Italy will be able to significantly influence the strategic decisions of African governments and counter the growing influence of Russia and China on the continent, which they have been building for decades. The G7 leaders also pointed to the problem that, from the Western perspective, the activities of organizations such as the Wagner Group pose. For Rome, the power of Moscow and Beijing in Africa means a threat that these capitals will create additional crises that directly affect Italy - for example, by increasing the waves of immigrants. Meloni wants to present herself to Africans as the good face of the West, respecting their sovereignty, wanting to do business, not interested in interfering in their internal affairs and lecturing them. On the other hand, the G7 declaration traditionally contains many references to democracy and human rights and their promotion in Africa, which shows that the Italian prime minister has had little influence on the language of the West. Ultimately, Rome has limited means of financial or military pressure in relations with Africa.
The key importance of artificial intelligence
In addition to supporting Ukraine against Russia and relations with Africa, the Italian presidency has identified artificial intelligence (AI) as a priority. “I am extremely concerned about the impact of AI on the labor market,” Meloni declared at its outset. “Today we are facing a revolution in which human intellect is at risk of being replaced,” which is why it is necessary to regulate the development of AI. The prime minister also quickly announced during her visit to Tokyo in February 2024 that she would like to continue the so-called Hiroshima process. This is an initiative launched by Japan during its presidency of the G7 in 2023, aimed at “promoting safe, secure and trustworthy artificial intelligence.”
In this context, the presence of Francis, who was the first pope in history to be a guest at the G7 summit, was interesting. The successor of St. Peter spoke precisely on the issue of artificial intelligence. In his opinion, the algorithms used by AI “are neither objective nor neutral” and “political action” is necessary to regulate the ethics of AI. Among other things, he expressed a demand for a ban on the use of lethal autonomous weapons. The office of the Pope is traditionally highly respected in Italy, so inviting Francis was Meloni’s gesture towards her countrymen. Simultaneously, however, the Pope simply supported her with his authority, warning against the loss of human control over the development of technology.
At the initiative of the Italian presidency, in cooperation with the OECD and UNESCO, the G7 Toolkit for Artificial Intelligence in the Public Sector was published. It was prepared in part thanks to a comparison of the ways in which artificial intelligence is being used in individual G7 countries. The report contains several suggestions for regulating AI, protecting data and optimally using AI in a way transparent and beneficial for citizens, both by state institutions and in the form of public-private partnerships. The exchange of experiences and the study are to help the most important Western countries develop uniform standards of effective management, combat siloed structures in public institutions, make use of the opportunities and avoid threats resulting from the development of AI in the long term.
In the area of new technologies, it is also worth noting that during the Italian presidency the G7 Contact Group on Semiconductors was established. The decision was made in March in Verona and then confirmed in June in Puglia. This is a clear signal to China, especially in the context of a hypothetical invasion of Taiwan. The G7 leaders pointed to the crucial importance of reliable semiconductor supply chains and the need to coordinate actions to ensure their security. During the G7 ministerial meeting on this matter, cooperation was also discussed to make semiconductors more energy efficient and increase the resilience of their production. This is just one of the many areas of technological competition with China.
Not only Europe
Undoubtedly, alongside Russia, China is the main challenge for the G7, and especially for the United States. Theoretically, the leaders’ message about “seeking constructive and stable relations with China” was conciliatory, although it was supplemented with numerous accusations against Beijing, including actions that undermine “workers, industries, and economic resilience and security” of member states or activities in cyberspace that threaten the privacy of their citizens, the development of innovation and the security of critical infrastructure.
The key topics of subsequent meetings within the G7 and the main summit in Puglia were also the “free and open Indo-Pacific” and stability in Southeast Asia. Also visible here is the continuation of the priorities of Japan, which chaired the G7 in the previous year, under the Italian presidency, which officially declared such a goal. It is worth noting that the year 2023 also brought the elevation of Italian-Japanese relations to the rank of a strategic partnership. This is yet another example of the Italian government’s desire to represent the unity of the West, understood much more broadly than Europe, and to be seen as a loyal ally of the United States.
The Italian presidency also had to address the situation in the Middle East throughout the year after the Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023. Immediately before the summit in Puglia and once again during it, the G7 countries supported
the three-stage ceasefire plan in the Gaza Strip prepared by the Biden administration, which, however, did not come into effect. This is an extremely sensitive topic for Meloni. On one hand, due to its distant but regularly recalled post-fascist roots, her political environment has for years been keen on avoiding any suspicions of anti-Semitism and on good relations with Israel. A spectacular turnaround in this matter was carried out by the previous leader and political father of Meloni, Gianfranco Fini, while he was the foreign minister in Berlusconi’s government. On the other hand, good relations with the Arab states of North Africa and seeing eye to eye with them on immigration and energy are currently key for Rome. Meloni is therefore trying to maintain a balanced position and avoid burning bridges with anyone– especially since the issue is also dividing her coalition. In November, the decision of the International Criminal Court to issue an arrest warrant for the Israeli prime minister sparked controversy. Defense Minister Guido Crosetto declared that Italy would be forced to arrest Netanyahu if he appeared on its territory. At the same time, Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini distanced himself from the words of his government colleague and stated that Netanyahu would be welcome in Italy. The G7 foreign ministers were also unable to establish a common position on this matter, so they did not address the matter in a communiqué after the meeting in Fiuggi.
Unity also under Trump?
Meloni has used the G7 presidency quite well to build her and her country’s international position. It seems that with each year passing it is getting a bit stronger. While in 2024 Meloni could leverage the G7 presidency and her position as head of the European Conservatives and Reformists in the context of the European Parliament elections, in 2025 she will try to strengthen herself as a partner of the new-old US president Donald Trump – a more natural one than the leaders of Germany and France. In the past, when Meloni was still deep in opposition, she sought good relations with the Republican Party and Trump’s circle and repeatedly travelled to the US for this purpose. She also criticized Barack Obama multiple times, especially for the intervention in Libya in 2011. Even before the November elections, being the prime minister, she openly admitted that she wanted Trump to win.
Meloni’s relationship with Elon Musk, with whom she has met several times over the past two years, may be useful in this regard. In December 2023, Musk was a guest of honor at Atreju, a festival that has been held in Rome for over 20 years and which Meloni started organizing when she was still a youth activist. In September 2024, the Prime Minister received the Atlantic Council’s Global Citizen award, and Musk delivered the eulogy in her honor. The scene was a good illustration of Meloni’s personal legitimacy in the world of transatlantic relations, which she has skillfully built – although her critics believe she is too susceptible to such honors and fine words and has an inferiority complex due to her origin and family history.
The G7 presidency will end on December 31, but Trump will assume the presidency on January 20. Meloni will then probably try to act as an intermediary between the populist US president and the European Union, build her position on this and present herself (once again) as a bridge and a foundation of Western unity. She has played a similar role many times as an intermediary between the European Commission and other EU capitals on one side and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on the other. It is worth noting that even after Donald Trump’s re-election, Meloni maintained her course on aid for Ukraine by once praised President Biden’s decision to allow the use of American long-range missiles on Russian territory.
Meloni has a relatively stable government, while the political situation in both EU countries larger than Italy is very complicated and additionally burdened by financial problems. On the other hand, high debt and dependence on foreign creditors limit Rome’s room for maneuver - also in priority areas, such as relations with Africa. The Italian government will certainly try to use the capital accumulated over the past year thanks to the presidency of the G7 in the new circumstances, invariably presenting itself as the foundation of Western unity and a loyal ally of Washington.
Author:
Kacper Kita, analyst and columnist, member of the editorial board of the Nowy Ład portal, leading the video section. Particularly interested in international politics and culture. Author of biographies of Éric Zemmour, Giorgia Meloni and biographical essays on Charles de Gaulle, Marine Le Pen and Benjamin Netanyahu, among others.
The opinions given and the positions held in materials in the Special Report solely reflect the views of authors. Warsaw Institute Wilcza St. 9, 00-538 Warsaw, Poland office@warsawinstitute.org
